Science.gov

Sample records for water level predictions

  1. Predicting atrazine levels in water utility intake water for MCL compliance.

    PubMed

    Pappas, E A; Huang, C

    2008-10-01

    To protect human health, atrazine concentrations in finished municipal drinking water must not exceed a maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 3 microg/L, as determined by a specific monitoring regime mandated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Atrazine levels were monitored along tile-fed drainage ditches draining to a major drinking water source and used to predict MCL exceedance frequencies of intake and finished drinking water. Water samples were collected daily at eight monitoring sites located at the outlets of subbasins draining 298-19 341 ha (736-47 794 ac). Flow-weighted average (FWA) atrazine concentrations ranged from 0.9 to 9.8 microg/L, and were above 3 microg/L for the majority of sites, including the largest site, which represents water quality at the intake of the local municipal water treatment plant. However, a relatively low percentage of samples near the water utility intake exceeding 3 microg/L atrazine (10.4%) made this problem difficult to detect. In order to have a 95% probability of detecting any intake sample exceeding 3 microg/L atrazine in a drainage system exceeding 3 microg/L atrazine on a FWA basis, sampling frequency would need to be every 7 days or more often during the second quarter when the potentials for field atrazine losses and temporal variability of atrazine concentrations are highest.

  2. Water-level predictions for Indian Wells Valley ground-water basin, California, 1978

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mallory, Michael J.

    1979-01-01

    Ground-water pumpage in Indian Wells Valley, virtually a closed basin in the Mojave Desert of southern California, has increased gradually since 1945 and presently exceeds the long-term mean annual recharge (perennial supply). In order to aid in the understanding and management of the ground-water basin, a digital ground-water model was constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey. Since the original development of this model, conditions in the basin, including areal distribution and rates of ground-water pumpage, have changed. The results of simulation for the period 1969-76 constitute a second verification of the original model. Calculated heads for 1976 agree with the observed heads, indicating a good calibration of the original model. A predictive simulation for the period 1977-2020 used pumpage values increasing from about 15,500 acre-feet per year to about 26,000 acre-feet per year. The pumpage used in this report reflects a slightly slower growth rate and a more concentrated pattern of development than that investigated when the model was originally developed. The effects of this pattern of pumpage are reflected in the water levels simulated by the model. Predicted drawdowns for 1983 are less extensive but locally more severe than those predicted earlier. The reversal of the hydraulic gradient between China Lake playa and the city of Ridgecrest, as produced by these drawdowns by the year 2020, suggests that the water-quality effects of such drawdowns should be investigated, as this could result in inferior water from the China Lake playa area flowing southward into areas of withdrawal. (Woodard-USGS)

  3. Flood Water Level Mapping and Prediction Due to Dam Failures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musa, S.; Adnan, M. S.; Ahmad, N. A.; Ayob, S.

    2016-07-01

    Sembrong dam has undergone overflow failure. Flooding has been reported to hit the town, covering an area of up to Parit Raja, located in the district of Batu Pahat. This study aims to identify the areas that will be affected by flood in the event of a dam failure in Sembrong Dam, Kluang, Johor at a maximum level. To grasp the extent, the flood inundation maps have been generated by using the InfoWorks ICM and GIS software. By using these maps, information such as the depth and extent of floods can be identified the main ares flooded. The flood map was created starting with the collection of relevant data such as measuring the depth of the river and a maximum flow rate for Sembrong Dam. The data were obtained from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Malaysia and the Department of Survey and Mapping and HLA Associates Sdn. Bhd. Then, the data were analyzed according to the established Info Works ICM method. The results found that the flooded area were listed at Sri Lalang, Parit Sagil, Parit Sonto, Sri Paya, Parit Raja, Parit Sempadan, Talang Bunut, Asam Bubok, Tanjung Sembrong, Sungai Rambut and Parit Haji Talib. Flood depth obtained for the related area started from 0.5 m up to 1.2 m. As a conclusion, the flood emanating from this study include the area around the town of Ayer Hitam up to Parit Raja approximately of more than 20 km distance. This may give bad implication to residents around these areas. In future studies, other rivers such as Sungai Batu Pahat should be considered for this study to predict and reduce the yearly flood victims for this area.

  4. An Investigation of Water Level Prediction in Urban Drainage System Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, F.; Chiang, Y.; Chiu, Y.; Ho, Y.; Chang, L.; Wang, Y.

    2008-12-01

    The pumping stations are the major hydraulic facilities for the elimination of flood in highly developed cities and therefore play an important role in flood mitigation in metropolitan area. Accurate predictions of inner water level in urban drainage systems are necessary and important for successful operation of pumping stations. In view of the characteristics of artificial neural networks (ANNs), the model was introduced in this study for extracting rainfall-water level patterns from torrential rain events. The Yu-Cheng pumping station, Taipei city, is used as a case study, where historical records which contain information of rainfall amounts and inner water levels are used to train and verify the ANN's performance. First, we directly construct the ANN for multistep ahead water level predictions by using 11 storm events at gauging sites. The optimal structure and parameters are then tested via 3 different events. Second, the storm water management model (SWMM) was utilized for the purpose of generating data at un-gauged sites. Data generated from SWMM were further used to train the ANN. Finally, a comparison of water level prediction between SWMM and ANN are given. Our preliminary results show that the ANN is capable of constructing accurate and reliable water level prediction. The results also exemplify the need for a detailed investigation on SWMM-derived error that could propagate the input error into the ANN models.

  5. Predicting Atrazine Levels in Water Utility Intake Water for MCL Compliance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To protect human health, atrazine concentrations in drinking water must not exceed its maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 3 ug/L. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates that municipal water providers sample quarterly to determine MCL compliance. Atrazine levels were mon...

  6. The CI-Flow Project: A System for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-11-01

    for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 0601153N 6...prototype new hydrometeorologic techniques to address a critical NOAA service gap: routine total water level predictions for tidally influenced...watersheds Since February 2000, the project has focused on developing a coupled modeling system to accurately account for water at all locations in a

  7. Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter - derived by A.G.Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level - to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinuously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism.-Author

  8. Dynamic neural networks for real-time water level predictions of sewerage systems - covering gauged and ungauged sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Y.-M.; Chang, L.-C.; Tsai, M.-J.; Wang, Y.-F.; Chang, F.-J.

    2010-04-01

    In this research, we propose recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to build a relationship between rainfalls and water level patterns of an urban sewerage system based on historical torrential rain/storm events. The RNN allows a signal to propagate in backward direction which gives this network a dynamic memory to effectively deal with time-varying systems. The RNN is implemented at both gauged and ungauged sites for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-min-ahead water level predictions. The results show that the RNN is capable of learning the nonlinear sewerage system and producing satisfactory predictions at the gauged sites. Concerning the ungauged sites, there are no historical data of water level to support prediction. In order to overcome such problem, a set of synthetic data, generated from a storm water management model (SWMM) under cautious verification process of applicability based on the data from nearby gauging stations, are introduced as the learning target to the training procedure of the RNN and moreover evaluating the performance of the RNN at the ungauged sites. The results demonstrate that the potential role of the SWMM coupled with nearby rainfall and water level information can be of great use in enhancing the capability of the RNN at the ungauged sites. Hence we can conclude that the RNN is an effective and suitable model for successfully predicting the water levels at both gauged and ungauged sites in urban sewerage systems.

  9. Dynamic neural networks for real-time water level predictions of sewerage systems-covering gauged and ungauged sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Yen-Ming; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Meng-Jung; Wang, Yi-Fung; Chang, Fi-John

    2010-07-01

    In this research, we propose recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to build a relationship between rainfalls and water level patterns of an urban sewerage system based on historical torrential rain/storm events. The RNN allows signals to propagate in both forward and backward directions, which offers the network dynamic memories. Besides, the information at the current time-step with a feedback operation can yield a time-delay unit that provides internal input information at the next time-step to effectively deal with time-varying systems. The RNN is implemented at both gauged and ungauged sites for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-min-ahead water level predictions. The results show that the RNN is capable of learning the nonlinear sewerage system and producing satisfactory predictions at the gauged sites. Concerning the ungauged sites, there are no historical data of water level to support prediction. In order to overcome such problem, a set of synthetic data, generated from a storm water management model (SWMM) under cautious verification process of applicability based on the data from nearby gauging stations, are introduced as the learning target to the training procedure of the RNN and moreover evaluating the performance of the RNN at the ungauged sites. The results demonstrate that the potential role of the SWMM coupled with nearby rainfall and water level information can be of great use in enhancing the capability of the RNN at the ungauged sites. Hence we can conclude that the RNN is an effective and suitable model for successfully predicting the water levels at both gauged and ungauged sites in urban sewerage systems.

  10. Predicting wetland plant community responses to proposed water-level-regulation plans for Lake Ontario: GIS-based modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilcox, D.A.; Xie, Y.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated, GIS-based, wetland predictive models were constructed to assist in predicting the responses of wetland plant communities to proposed new water-level regulation plans for Lake Ontario. The modeling exercise consisted of four major components: 1) building individual site wetland geometric models; 2) constructing generalized wetland geometric models representing specific types of wetlands (rectangle model for drowned river mouth wetlands, half ring model for open embayment wetlands, half ellipse model for protected embayment wetlands, and ellipse model for barrier beach wetlands); 3) assigning wetland plant profiles to the generalized wetland geometric models that identify associations between past flooding / dewatering events and the regulated water-level changes of a proposed water-level-regulation plan; and 4) predicting relevant proportions of wetland plant communities and the time durations during which they would be affected under proposed regulation plans. Based on this conceptual foundation, the predictive models were constructed using bathymetric and topographic wetland models and technical procedures operating on the platform of ArcGIS. An example of the model processes and outputs for the drowned river mouth wetland model using a test regulation plan illustrates the four components and, when compared against other test regulation plans, provided results that met ecological expectations. The model results were also compared to independent data collected by photointerpretation. Although data collections were not directly comparable, the predicted extent of meadow marsh in years in which photographs were taken was significantly correlated with extent of mapped meadow marsh in all but barrier beach wetlands. The predictive model for wetland plant communities provided valuable input into International Joint Commission deliberations on new regulation plans and was also incorporated into faunal predictive models used for that purpose.

  11. Prediction of Water-level Changes and Water Use in the High Plains Aquifer from Radar Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittemore, D. O.; Butler, J. J., Jr.; Wilson, B. B.

    2015-12-01

    Meteorological conditions are the primary driver of variations in the annual volume of groundwater pumped for irrigation from the High Plains aquifer (HPA), one of the largest aquifers of the world. Correlations between climatic indices (such as the Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI]) and mean annual water-level changes and water use have been shown to be valuable tools for assessing the aquifer's response to various climatic scenarios in the semi-arid Kansas HPA (Whittemore et al., 2015). The correlations are generally better for a relatively large area (region) of the aquifer (such as that encompassed by a climatic division) because of the number of weather stations from which the climatic indices are computed. Correlations can be poor for county-sized and smaller areas (less than a few to several hundred km2) because of the low density of weather stations. Since 2005, radar precipitation data have been served online by the National Weather Service. The radar data are adjusted based on ground observations and are available at a spatial resolution of ~4x4 km. Correlations between radar precipitation and mean annual water-level changes and water use are comparable to those using SPI for the same region. Correlations using radar precipitation data are generally higher than with SPI computed for smaller areas, such as for counties and areas around individual monitoring wells. The optimum correlations for radar precipitation are determined using sums of different spans of monthly mean precipitation that include the irrigation season for the area of interest. Coefficients of determination, R2, for radar precipitation versus annual water-level change and water use can exceed 0.8 for counties and monitoring well areas in the Kansas HPA. These correlations are being used to assess the impact of drought and water-use management on HPA sustainability. These correlations can also be used to assess the quality of the reported water-use data.

  12. [Classification of substances to predict the order of magnitude of their safe water levels in terms of carcinogenic effect].

    PubMed

    Zholdakova, Z I; Kharchevnikova, N V

    2011-01-01

    A classification has been developed to predict the safe water levels of chemical compounds in terms of their carcinogenic effect, by using as the base the LTD@10 value that is a lower 95% confidence limits for the lowest dose that statistically significantly causes a 10% increase in the incidence of cancer in laboratory animals continuously receiving a daily dose of the compound throughout their life, which is given in the CPDB internet resource, and the carcinogenicity classification adopted by the International Agency or Research on Cancer Based on an analysis ofthe maximum allowable concentration (MAC) of the standardized water substances in terms of their carcinogenic effect, the authors determined MA4 C ranges corresponding to different classes in accordance with the proposed classification. They predicted the orders of magnitude of MAC of the standardized water substances without taking into account their carcinogenic effect and those of four substances unstandardized in Russia.

  13. Variations in trihalomethane levels in three French water distribution systems and the development of a predictive model.

    PubMed

    Mouly, Damien; Joulin, Eric; Rosin, Christophe; Beaudeau, Pascal; Zeghnoun, Abdelkrim; Olszewski-Ortar, Agnès; Munoz, Jean François; Welté, Bénédicte; Joyeux, Michel; Seux, René; Montiel, Antoine; Rodriguez, M J

    2010-10-01

    Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that chlorination by-products in drinking water may cause some types of cancer in humans. However, due to differences in methodology between the various studies, it is not possible to establish a dose-response relationship. This shortcoming is due primarily to uncertainties about how exposure is measured-made difficult by the great number of compounds present-the exposure routes involved and the variation in concentrations in water distribution systems. This is especially true for trihalomethanes for which concentrations can double between the water treatment plant and the consumer tap. The aim of this study is to describe the behaviour of trihalomethanes in three French water distribution systems and develop a mathematical model to predict concentrations in the water distribution system using data collected from treated water at the plant (i.e. the entrance of the distribution system). In 2006 and 2007, samples were taken successively from treated water at the plant and at several points in the water distribution system in three French cities. In addition to the concentrations of the four trihalomethanes (chloroform, dichlorobromomethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform), many other parameters involved in their formation that affect their concentration were also measured. The average trihalomethane concentration in the three water distribution systems ranged from 21.6 μg/L to 59.9 μg/L. The increase in trihalomethanes between the treated water at the plant and a given point in the water distribution system varied by a factor of 1.1-5.7 over all of the samples. A log-log linear regression model was constructed to predict THM concentrations in the water distribution system. The five variables used were trihalomethane concentration and free residual chlorine for treated water at the plant, two variables that characterize the reactivity of organic matter (specific UV absorbance (SUVA), an indicator developed for the free

  14. Ground-water-level monitoring for earthquake prediction; a progress report based on data collected in Southern California, 1976-79

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moyle, W.R.

    1980-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a research program to determine if groundwater-level measurements can be used for earthquake prediction. Earlier studies suggest that water levels in wells may be responsive to small strains on the order of 10 to the minus 8th power to 10 to the minus 10th power (dimensionless). Water-level data being collected in the area of the southern California uplift show response to earthquakes and other natural and manmade effects. The data are presently (1979) being made ready for computer analysis. The completed analysis may indicate the presence of precursory earthquake information. (USGS)

  15. Improved sea level anomaly prediction through combination of data relationship analysis and genetic programming in Singapore Regional Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurniawan, Alamsyah; Ooi, Seng Keat; Babovic, Vladan

    2014-11-01

    With recent advances in measurement and information technology, there is an abundance of data available for analysis and modelling of hydrodynamic systems. Spatial and temporal data coverage, better quality and reliability of data modelling and data driven techniques have resulted in more favourable acceptance by the hydrodynamic community. The data mining tools and techniques are being applied in variety of hydro-informatics applications ranging from data mining for pattern discovery to data driven models and numerical model error correction. The present study explores the feasibility of applying mutual information theory by evaluating the amount of information contained in observed and prediction errors of non-tidal barotropic numerical modelling (i.e. assuming that the hydrodynamic model, available at this point, is best representation of the physics in the domain of interest) by relating them to variables that reflect the state at which the predictions are made such as input data, state variables and model output. In addition, the present study explores the possibility of employing ‘genetic programming' (GP) as an offline data driven modelling tool to capture the sea level anomaly (SLA) dynamics and then using them for updating the numerical model prediction in real time applications. These results suggest that combination of data relationship analysis and GP models helps to improve the forecasting ability by providing information of significant predicative parameters. It is found that GP based SLA prediction error forecast model can provide significant improvement when applied as data assimilation schemes for updating the SLA prediction obtained from primary hydrodynamic models.

  16. Reasons and Predictions of The Caspian Sea Water Level Fluctuations: Impact of Climate Factors and Man's Activities.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erlich, M.; Shiklomanov, I.; Yezhov, A.; Georgievsky, V.; Shalygin, A.

    The Caspian Sea - the largest lake in the world - has no connection with the Ocean and is lower than its surface. Fluctuations of the Sea level are very significant: during the period of instrumental observations (since 1830) the level amplitude was 3.78 m with maximum of -25.22 m in 1882 and minimum of -29.00 m in 1978. These fluctuations lead to a great damage for the economy of five countries sharing its coast (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan). Deep knowledge of hydrological and hydrodynamic Sea regime and scientifically justified forecasts of possible changes in its level, taking into account variability in climate and future climate change, are re- quired for undertaking urgent measures for protection of coastal territories. The inter- national research project CASSEAS, carried out in 1997-2000 within the framework of the INCO-COPERNICUS programme by the scientists of 5 countries: France, Rus- sia, Germany, Turkmenistan and UK, was devoted to these problems. Research made within the Project made it possible to get new precise data on all water balance com- ponents of the Caspian Sea for 1880-1996; moreover, all water balance components for 1940-1996 were computed independently. It was shown that the Sea level fluctua- tions depended on the water balance almost completely. Assessment of possible future runoff changes in the Caspian Sea basin was made using the mathematical model of runoff formation developed at the SHI. Several scenarios from a range of GCMs and on the basis of paleoclimatic reconstructions were used as the models of the future climate for the nearest 3 decades. Besides changes in climate characteristics, three variants were accepted for the future water use in the basins of rivers discharging to the Caspian Sea. All scenarios gave similar results for changes in annual river inflow to the Caspian Sea: its increase would be from 5% to 10% by 2030. The same scenarios, used to estimate changes in precipitation onto the Sea

  17. Predicted water-level and water-quality effects of artificial recharge in the Upper Coachella Valley, California, using a finite-element digital model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, Lindsay A.

    1978-01-01

    From 1936 to 1974, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the Palm Springs area and 60 feet in the Palm Desert area of the upper Coachella Valley, Calif. Water from the Colorado River Aqueduct is presently being recharged to the basin. The dissolved-solids concentration of native ground water in the recharge area is about 210 mg/liter and that of recharge water ranges from 600 to 750 mg/liter. A finite-element model indicates that without recharge the 1974 water levels in the Palm Springs area will decline 200 feet by the year 2000 because of pumpage. If the aquifer is recharged at a rate from about 7 ,500 acre-feet per year in 1973 increasing to 61,200 acre-feet per year in 1990 and thereafter, the water level in the Palm Springs area will decline about 20 feet below the 1974 level by 1991 and recover to the 1974 level by 2000. The solute-transport finite-element model of the recharge area indicates that the artificial recharge plume (bounded by the 300-mg/liter line) will move about 1.1 miles downgradient of the recharge ponds by 1981 and about 4.5 miles from the ponds by 2000. (Woodard-USGS)

  18. Predicting pesticide environmental risk in intensive agricultural areas. II: Screening level risk assessment of complex mixtures in surface waters.

    PubMed

    Verro, Roberto; Finizio, Antonio; Otto, Stefan; Vighi, Marco

    2009-01-15

    In a previous article, a procedure for assessing pesticide ecotoxicological risk for surface water was applied to all active ingredients in a pilot basin. This data set has been used to assess the composition of pesticide mixtures that are likely to be present in surface waters as a consequence of pesticide emissions from the crops grown within the basin (maize, soybean, sugar beet, and vineyard). Temporal evolution of the mixture composition has been evaluated as a function of the different contamination patterns (drift and runoff). Ecotoxicological risk has been assessed for the mixtures released by individual crops and from all the relevant crops cultivated in the basin. The different role of drift and runoff, as well as the temporal trends of exposure and risk are compared. Daphnia is the most affected among the three indicator organisms considered, particularly from drift mixtures after insecticide application on vineyard. The highest risk for algae occurs during runoff events in spring. In most risk events, one or a few chemicals are usually responsible for more than 80% of the toxic potency of the mixture. The CA model for predicting mixture response is assumed to be a reliable approach for assessing risk for ecologically relevant pesticide mixtures.

  19. How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2015-06-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  20. Sport-Specific Conditioning Variables Predict Offensive and Defensive Performance in High-Level Youth Water Polo Athletes.

    PubMed

    Sekulic, Damir; Kontic, Dean; Esco, Michael R; Zenic, Natasa; Milanovic, Zoran; Zvan, Milan

    2016-05-01

    Specific-conditioning capacities (SCC) are known to be generally important in water polo (WP), yet the independent associations to offensive and defensive performance is unknown. This study aimed to determine whether offense and defense abilities in WP were independently associated with SCC and anthropometrics. The participants were 82 high-level male youth WP players (all 17-19 years of age; body height, 186.3 ± 6.07 cm; body mass, 84.8 ± 9.6 kg). The independent variables were body height and body mass, and 5 sport-specific fitness tests: sprint swimming over 15 meters; 4 × 50-meter anaerobic-endurance test; vertical in-water-jump; maximum intensity isometric force in upright swimming using an eggbeater kick; and test of throwing velocity. The 6 dependent variables comprised parameters of defensive and offensive performance, such as polyvalence, i.e., ability to play on different positions in defensive tasks (PD) and offensive tasks (PO), efficacy in primary playing position in defensive (ED) and offensive (EO) tasks, and agility in defensive (AD) and offensive (AO) tasks. Analyses showed appropriate reliability for independent (intraclass coefficient of 0.82-0.91) and dependent variables (Cronbach alpha of 0.81-0.95). Multiple regressions were significant for ED (R = 0.25; p < 0.01), EO (R = 0.21; p < 0.01), AD (R = 0.40; p < 0.01), and AO (R = 0.35; p < 0.01). Anaerobic-swimming performance was positively related to AD (β = -0.26; p ≤ 0.05), whereas advanced sprint swimming was related to better AO (β = -0.38; p ≤ 0.05). In-water-jumping performance held the significant positive relationship to EO (β = 0.31; p ≤ 0.05), ED (β = 0.33; p ≤ 0.05), and AD (β = 0.37; p ≤ 0.05). Strength and conditioning professionals working in WP should be aware of established importance of SCC in performing unique duties in WP. The SCC should be specifically developed to meet the needs of offensive and defensive performance in young WP athletes.

  1. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  2. Making predictions skill level analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

    2017-01-01

    The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

  3. Prediction of the air-water partition coefficient for perfluoro-2-methyl-3-pentanone using high-level Gaussian-4 composite theoretical methods.

    PubMed

    Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya

    2014-09-19

    The air-water partition coefficient (Kaw) of perfluoro-2-methyl-3-pentanone (PFMP) was estimated using the G4MP2/G4 levels of theory and the SMD solvation model. A suite of 31 fluorinated compounds was employed to calibrate the theoretical method. Excellent agreement between experimental and directly calculated Kaw values was obtained for the calibration compounds. The PCM solvation model was found to yield unsatisfactory Kaw estimates for fluorinated compounds at both levels of theory. The HENRYWIN Kaw estimation program also exhibited poor Kaw prediction performance on the training set. Based on the resulting regression equation for the calibration compounds, the G4MP2-SMD method constrained the estimated Kaw of PFMP to the range 5-8 × 10(-6) M atm(-1). The magnitude of this Kaw range indicates almost all PFMP released into the atmosphere or near the land-atmosphere interface will reside in the gas phase, with only minor quantities dissolved in the aqueous phase as the parent compound and/or its hydrate/hydrate conjugate base. Following discharge into aqueous systems not at equilibrium with the atmosphere, significant quantities of PFMP will be present as the dissolved parent compound and/or its hydrate/hydrate conjugate base.

  4. Prediction of concentration levels of metformin and other high consumption pharmaceuticals in wastewater and regional surface water based on sales data.

    PubMed

    Oosterhuis, Mathijs; Sacher, Frank; Ter Laak, Thomas L

    2013-01-01

    Local consumption data of pharmaceuticals were used to study the emission to wastewater and surface waters in two small Dutch water catchments. For nine high consumption pharmaceuticals: metformin, metoprolol, sotalol, losartan, valsartan, irbesartan, hydrochlorothiazide, diclofenac and carbamazepine, predicted emissions were compared to wastewater concentrations, removal in sewage treatment plants and recovery in regional surface water. The study shows that local consumption data can be very useful to select pharmaceuticals for monitoring and to predict wastewater concentrations. Measured influent concentrations were on average 78% with a range of 31-138% of predicted influent concentrations. Metformin is the pharmaceutical with the highest concentration in wastewater (64-98 μg/L) but it is removed with >98% in sewage treatment plants (STP). Guanylurea, a biodegradation product of metformin, was detected in STP effluents and surface waters at concentrations of 39-56 μg/L and 1.8-3.9 μg/L, respectively. The STP removal of the different pharmaceuticals varied strongly. For carbamazepine, hydrochlorothiazide and sotalol a significant better removal was found at higher temperatures and longer hydraulic retention times while for metoprolol significantly better removal was only observed at higher temperatures. Predicting environmental concentrations from regional consumption data might be an alternative to monitoring of pharmaceuticals in wastewater and surface waters.

  5. Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression

    MedlinePlus

    ... Research Matters NIH Research Matters February 3, 2014 Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression Among people ... sclerosis (MS), those with higher blood levels of vitamin D had better outcomes during 5 years of ...

  6. Water resources assessment and prediction in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guangsheng; Dai, Ning; Yang, Jianqing; Wang, Jinxing

    2016-10-01

    Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i) comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii) annual water resources assessment, and (iii) industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP) has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

  7. Groundwater Level Prediction using M5 Model Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalarajan, Nitha Ayinippully; Mohandas, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater is an important resource, readily available and having high economic value and social benefit. Recently, it had been considered a dependable source of uncontaminated water. During the past two decades, increased rate of extraction and other greedy human actions have resulted in the groundwater crisis, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Under prevailing circumstances, the availability of predicted groundwater levels increase the importance of this valuable resource, as an aid in the planning of groundwater resources. For this purpose, data-driven prediction models are widely used in the present day world. M5 model tree (MT) is a popular soft computing method emerging as a promising method for numeric prediction, producing understandable models. The present study discusses the groundwater level predictions using MT employing only the historical groundwater levels from a groundwater monitoring well. The results showed that MT can be successively used for forecasting groundwater levels.

  8. Computer program to predict aircraft noise levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1981-01-01

    Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources were programmed to predict aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. The noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. Outputs can include spectra, overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, tone-weighted perceived noise level, and effective perceived noise level at locations specified by the user. Footprint contour coordinates and approximate footprint areas can also be calculated. Inputs and outputs can be in either System International or U.S. customary units. The subroutines for each noise source and propagation correction are described. A complete listing is given.

  9. Passive samplers accurately predict PAH levels in resident crayfish.

    PubMed

    Paulik, L Blair; Smith, Brian W; Bergmann, Alan J; Sower, Greg J; Forsberg, Norman D; Teeguarden, Justin G; Anderson, Kim A

    2016-02-15

    Contamination of resident aquatic organisms is a major concern for environmental risk assessors. However, collecting organisms to estimate risk is often prohibitively time and resource-intensive. Passive sampling accurately estimates resident organism contamination, and it saves time and resources. This study used low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive water samplers to predict polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus. Resident crayfish were collected at 5 sites within and outside of the Portland Harbor Superfund Megasite (PHSM) in the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon. LDPE deployment was spatially and temporally paired with crayfish collection. Crayfish visceral and tail tissue, as well as water-deployed LDPE, were extracted and analyzed for 62 PAHs using GC-MS/MS. Freely-dissolved concentrations (Cfree) of PAHs in water were calculated from concentrations in LDPE. Carcinogenic risks were estimated for all crayfish tissues, using benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq). ∑PAH were 5-20 times higher in viscera than in tails, and ∑BaPeq were 6-70 times higher in viscera than in tails. Eating only tail tissue of crayfish would therefore significantly reduce carcinogenic risk compared to also eating viscera. Additionally, PAH levels in crayfish were compared to levels in crayfish collected 10 years earlier. PAH levels in crayfish were higher upriver of the PHSM and unchanged within the PHSM after the 10-year period. Finally, a linear regression model predicted levels of 34 PAHs in crayfish viscera with an associated R-squared value of 0.52 (and a correlation coefficient of 0.72), using only the Cfree PAHs in water. On average, the model predicted PAH concentrations in crayfish tissue within a factor of 2.4 ± 1.8 of measured concentrations. This affirms that passive water sampling accurately estimates PAH contamination in crayfish. Furthermore, the strong predictive ability of this simple model suggests

  10. Satellite Water Impurity Marker (SWIM) for predicting seasonal cholera outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jutla, A. S.; Akanda, A. S.; Islam, S.

    2011-12-01

    Prediction of outbreaks of cholera, a deadly water related disease, remains elusive. Since coastal brackish water provides a natural ecological niche for cholera bacteria and because a powerful evidence of new biotypes is emerging, it is highly unlikely that cholera will be fully eradicated. Therefore, it is necessary to develop cholera prediction model with several months' of lead time. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for phytoplankton abundance, has been associated with proliferation of cholera bacteria. However, survival of cholera bacteria in a variety of coastal ecological environment put constraints on predictive abilities of chlorophyll algorithm since it only measures greenness in coastal waters. Here, we propose a new remote sensing reflectance based statistical index: Satellite Water Impurity Marker, or SWIM. This statistical index estimates impurity levels in the coastal waters and is based on the variability observed in the difference between the blue (412nm) and green (555nm) wavelengths in coastal waters. The developed index is bounded between clear and impure water and shows the ability to predict cholera outbreaks in the Bengal Delta with a predicted r2 of 78% with two months lead time. We anticipate that a predictive system based on SWIM will provide essential lead time allowing effective intervention and mitigation strategies to be developed for other cholera endemic regions of the world.

  11. Modeling Benthic Sediment Processes to Predict Water ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The benthic sediment acts as a huge reservoir of particulate and dissolved material (within interstitial water) which can contribute to loading of contaminants and nutrients to the water column. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to predict spatial and temporal benthic fluxes of nutrients and chemicals in Narragansett Bay. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to identify benthic flux into the water column in Narragansett Bay. Benthic flux is essential to properly model water quality and ecology in estuarine and coastal systems.

  12. Blind Prediction of Interfacial Water Positions in CAPRI

    PubMed Central

    Moal, Iain H.; Bates, Paul A.; Kastritis, Panagiotis L.; Melquiond, Adrien S.J.; Karaca, Ezgi; Schmitz, Christophe; van Dijk, Marc; Bonvin, Alexandre M.J.J.; Eisenstein, Miriam; Jiménez-García, Brian; Grosdidier, Solène; Solernou, Albert; Pérez-Cano, Laura; Pallara, Chiara; Fernández-Recio, Juan; Xu, Jianqing; Muthu, Pravin; Kilambi, Krishna Praneeth; Gray, Jeffrey J.; Grudinin, Sergei; Derevyanko, Georgy; Mitchell, Julie C.; Wieting, John; Kanamori, Eiji; Tsuchiya, Yuko; Murakami, Yoichi; Sarmiento, Joy; Standley, Daron M.; Shirota, Matsuyuki; Kinoshita, Kengo; Nakamura, Haruki; Chavent, Matthieu; Ritchie, David W.; Park, Hahnbeom; Ko, Junsu; Lee, Hasup; Seok, Chaok; Shen, Yang; Kozakov, Dima; Vajda, Sandor; Kundrotas, Petras J.; Vakser, Ilya A.; Pierce, Brian G.; Hwang, Howook; Vreven, Thom; Weng, Zhiping; Buch, Idit; Farkash, Efrat; Wolfson, Haim J.; Zacharias, Martin; Qin, Sanbo; Zhou, Huan-Xiang; Huang, Shen-You; Zou, Xiaoqin; Wojdyla, Justyna A.; Kleanthous, Colin; Wodak, Shoshana J.

    2015-01-01

    We report the first assessment of blind predictions of water positions at protein-protein interfaces, performed as part of the CAPRI (Critical Assessment of Predicted Interactions) community-wide experiment. Groups submitting docking predictions for the complex of the DNase domain of colicin E2 and Im2 immunity protein (CAPRI target 47), were invited to predict the positions of interfacial water molecules using the method of their choice. The predictions – 20 groups submitted a total of 195 models – were assessed by measuring the recall fraction of water-mediated protein contacts. Of the 176 high or medium quality docking models – a very good docking performance per se – only 44% had a recall fraction above 0.3, and a mere 6% above 0.5. The actual water positions were in general predicted to an accuracy level no better than 1.5 Å, and even in good models about half of the contacts represented false positives. This notwithstanding, three hotspot interface water positions were quite well predicted, and so was one of the water positions that is believed to stabilize the loop that confers specificity in these complexes. Overall the best interface water predictions was achieved by groups that also produced high quality docking models, indicating that accurate modelling of the protein portion is a determinant factor. The use of established molecular mechanics force fields, coupled to sampling and optimization procedures also seemed to confer an advantage. Insights gained from this analysis should help improve the prediction of protein-water interactions and their role in stabilizing protein complexes. PMID:24155158

  13. Predicting water intake by yearling feedlot steers.

    PubMed

    Sexson, J L; Wagner, J J; Engle, T E; Eickhoff, J

    2012-06-01

    Data from 4 separate beef cattle feedlot experiments, which were conducted at the Southeast Colorado Research Center (SECRC) in Lamar, CO, in 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2007, were utilized in a retrospective longitudinal study investigating possible relationships between daily water consumption (WC), DMI, and weather variables. The data set consisted of 8,209 records from 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2007, with pen based daily WC (L•animal(-1)) and DMI measurements and calculated daily steer BW from April to October in each year. Daily weather data were obtained from the weather station located at Lamar Municipal Airport located approximately 1.9 km from SECRC. Data collected consisted of daily high, low, and mean temperature; high, low, and mean humidity; high, low, and mean sea level pressure; mean wind speed; total precipitation; and average daily wind direction (cosine of radians from due north). Univariate analysis demonstrated that the continuous variables of BW, humidity, and sea level pressure were negatively related (P < 0.0001), whereas DMI, temperature the previous day, daily temperature, change in temperature from the previous day, average wind speed, and the temperature-humidity index (THI) were positively related (P < 0.001) to daily WC. There was a trend (P < 0.06) for the cosine of wind direction (1 = due north and -1 = due south) to be negatively related to WC. The multivariate, parsimonious model predicting average daily WC included (P < 0.05) average humidity, average humidity squared, high temperature squared, high humidity squared, low temperature, low temperature squared, low humidity, average sea level pressure, average wind speed, average daily BW, high sea level pressure, low sea level pressure, high humidity, and low humidity. The generalized R(2) of the parsimonious multivariate model was 0.32. These results indicate that BW and numerous weather factors are related to WC by yearling feedlot steers. Dry matter intake had minimal impact on WC for

  14. Predicting Anthropogenic Noise Contributions to US Waters.

    PubMed

    Gedamke, Jason; Ferguson, Megan; Harrison, Jolie; Hatch, Leila; Henderson, Laurel; Porter, Michael B; Southall, Brandon L; Van Parijs, Sofie

    2016-01-01

    To increase understanding of the potential effects of chronic underwater noise in US waters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) organized two working groups in 2011, collectively called "CetSound," to develop tools to map the density and distribution of cetaceans (CetMap) and predict the contribution of human activities to underwater noise (SoundMap). The SoundMap effort utilized data on density, distribution, acoustic signatures of dominant noise sources, and environmental descriptors to map estimated temporal, spatial, and spectral contributions to background noise. These predicted soundscapes are an initial step toward assessing chronic anthropogenic noise impacts on the ocean's varied acoustic habitats and the animals utilizing them.

  15. Models for predicting recreational water quality at Lake Erie beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, Donna S.; Darner, Robert A.; Bertke, Erin E.

    2006-01-01

    Data collected from four Lake Erie beaches during the recreational seasons of 2004-05 and from one Lake Erie beach during 2000-2005 were used to develop predictive models for recreational water quality by means of multiple linear regression. The best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality explanatory variables including turbidity, rainfall, wave height, water temperature, day of the year, wind direction, and lake level. Two types of outputs were produced from the models: the predicted Escherichia coli concentration and the probability that the bathing-water standard will be exceeded. The model for one of beaches, Huntington Reservation (Huntington), was validated in 2005. For 2005, the Huntington model yielded more correct responses and better predicted exceedance of the standard than did current methods for assessing recreational water quality, which are based on the previous day's E. coli concentration. Predictions based on the Huntington model have been available to the public through an Internet-based 'nowcasting' system since May 30, 2006. The other beach models are being validated for the first time in 2006. The methods used in this study to develop and test predictive models can be applied at other similar coastal beaches.

  16. Predicting light penetration into river waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies-Colley, Robert J.; Nagels, John W.

    2008-09-01

    Lighting in rivers often needs to be quantified, particularly for modeling benthic plant growth, but is seldom measured because of difficulties associated with limited depth and strong currents. Therefore, methods for predicting light attenuation from river water quality data would be very useful. We used measurements of the diffuse light attenuation coefficient, Kd (m-1), at 17 optically diverse rivers in New Zealand to develop simple empirical models of light penetration as functions of the beam attenuation coefficient at 550 nm, c550 (m-1, an index of visual water clarity) and the light absorption coefficient of membrane filtrates at 340 nm, g340 (m-1, an index of colored dissolved organic matter). The beam attenuation coefficient can be measured by beam transmissometer or estimated, as in this study, from black disc visibility observations. Alternatively, nephelometric turbidity, Tn (an index of light scattering), which is more commonly measured in water quality monitoring programs, can be used to predict Kd. The models performed satisfactorily when tested over a wide range of optical water quality (varying with flow) at one river site. We expect that these empirical models will have wide practical application for estimating light availability in rivers and streams.

  17. Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Based on AHP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shuai; Sun, Anqi

    2017-01-01

    Nowadays, the shortage of water resources is a threat to us. In order to solve the problem of water resources restricted by varieties of factors, this paper establishes a water resources evaluation index model (WREI), which adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) algorithm. After considering influencing factors of water resources, we ignore secondary factors and then hierarchical approach the main factors according to the class, set up a three-layer structure. The top floor is for WREI. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine weight first, and then use fuzzy judgment to judge target, so the comprehensive use of the two algorithms reduce the subjective influence of AHP and overcome the disadvantages of multi-level evaluation. To prove the model, we choose India as a target region. On the basis of water resources evaluation index model, we use Matlab and combine grey prediction with linear prediction to discuss the ability to provide clean water in India and the trend of India’s water resources changing in the next 15 years. The model with theoretical support and practical significance will be of great help to provide reliable data support and reference for us to get plans to improve water quality.

  18. Prediction of health levels by remote sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rush, M.; Vernon, S.

    1975-01-01

    Measures of the environment derived from remote sensing were compared to census population/housing measures in their ability to discriminate among health status areas in two urban communities. Three hypotheses were developed to explore the relationships between environmental and health data. Univariate and multiple step-wise linear regression analyses were performed on data from two sample areas in Houston and Galveston, Texas. Environmental data gathered by remote sensing were found to equal or surpass census data in predicting rates of health outcomes. Remote sensing offers the advantages of data collection for any chosen area or time interval, flexibilities not allowed by the decennial census.

  19. Water-level fluctuations influence sediment porewater ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Reservoirs typically have elevated fish mercury (Hg) levels compared to natural lakes and rivers. A unique feature of reservoirs is water-level management which can result in sediment exposure to the air. The objective of this study is to identify how reservoir water-level fluctuations impact Hg cycling, particularly the formation of the more toxic and bioaccumulative methylmercury (MeHg). Total-Hg (THg), MeHg, stable isotope methylation rates and several ancillary parameters were measured in reservoir sediments (including some in porewater and overlying water) that are seasonally and permanently inundated. The results showed that sediment and porewater MeHg concentrations were over 3-times higher in areas experiencing water-level fluctuations compared to permanently inundated sediments. Analysis of the data suggest that the enhanced breakdown of organic matter in sediments experiencing water-level fluctuations has a two-fold effect on stimulating Hg methylation: 1) it increases the partitioning of inorganic Hg from the solid phase into the porewater phase (lower log Kd values) where it is more bioavailable for methylation; and 2) it increases dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the porewater which can stimulate the microbial community that can methylate Hg. Sulfate concentrations and cycling were enhanced in the seasonally inundated sediments and may have also contributed to increased MeHg production. Overall, our results suggest that reservoir management a

  20. Baseline Chromatin Modification Levels May Predict ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Traditional toxicological paradigms have relied on factors such as age, genotype, and disease status to explain variability in responsiveness to toxicant exposure; however, these are neither sufficient to faithfully identify differentially responsive individuals nor are they modifiable factors that can be leveraged to mitigate the exposure effects. Unlike these factors, the epigenome is dynamic and shaped by an individual's environment. We sought to determine whether baseline levels of specific chromatin modifications correlated with the interindividual variability in their ozone (03)-mediated induction in an air-liquid interface model using primary human bronchial epithelial cells from a panel of 11 donors. We characterized the relationship between the baseline abundance of 6 epigenetic markers with established roles as key regulators of gene expression-histone H3 lysine 4 trimethylation (H3K4me3), H3K27 acetylation (H3K27ac), pan­acetyl H4 (H4ac), histone H3K27 di/trimethylation (H3K27me2/3), unmodified H3, and5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5-hmC)-and the variability in the 03-induced expression of IL-8, IL-6, COX2, and HMOX1. Baseline levels of H3K4me3, H3K27me2/3, and 5-hmC, but not H3K27ac, H4ac, and total H3, correlated with the interindividual variability in 03-mediated induction of HMOX1 and COX2. In contrast, none of the chromatin modifications that we examined correlated with the induction of IL-8 and IL-6. From these findings, we propose an "epigenetic see

  1. Application of TDR to water level measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomsen, A.; Hansen, B.; Schelde, K.

    2000-09-01

    A specialised time domain reflectometry (TDR) probe for measuring water level in tanks collecting surface runoff was developed, calibrated and field-tested. The water level probe — in the form of a slightly modified soil moisture probe — was developed as part of a TDR measuring system designed for continuous monitoring of soil water content and surface runoff in plot studies of water erosion and sediment transport. A computer algorithm for the analysis of TDR traces from the new probe was developed and incorporated into existing software for automated acquisition and analysis of TDR data. Laboratory calibration showed that water level could be measured with sufficient accuracy (standard deviation <2 mm) for a range of applications in hydrology. Soil erosion is typically a short duration process closely linked to soil moisture content and rainfall intensity. A major benefit of integrating time critical measurements of surface runoff and soil moisture into a single system is the synchronisation of measurements. Measurements were made on a regular schedule except during rainfall events when the measuring rate depended on rainfall intensity. In a parallel calibration study it was shown that the performance of the TDR probe was comparable to a commercial ultrasonic liquid level sensor used for measuring runoff at an erosion site not instrumented for automated TDR measurements.

  2. Cascade generalized predictive control strategy for boiler drum level.

    PubMed

    Xu, Min; Li, Shaoyuan; Cai, Wenjian

    2005-07-01

    This paper proposes a cascade model predictive control scheme for boiler drum level control. By employing generalized predictive control structures for both inner and outer loops, measured and unmeasured disturbances can be effectively rejected, and drum level at constant load is maintained. In addition, nonminimum phase characteristic and system constraints in both loops can be handled effectively by generalized predictive control algorithms. Simulation results are provided to show that cascade generalized predictive control results in better performance than that of well tuned cascade proportional integral differential controllers. The algorithm has also been implemented to control a 75-MW boiler plant, and the results show an improvement over conventional control schemes.

  3. Hydro static water level systems at Fermilab

    SciTech Connect

    Volk, J.T.; Guerra, J.A.; Hansen, S.U.; Kiper, T.E.; Jostlein, H.; Shiltsev, V.; Chupyra, A.; Kondaurov, M.; Singatulin, S.

    2006-09-01

    Several Hydrostatic Water Leveling systems (HLS) are in use at Fermilab. Three systems are used to monitor quadrupoles in the Tevatron and two systems are used to monitor ground motion for potential sites for the International Linear Collider (ILC). All systems use capacitive sensors to determine the water level of water in a pool. These pools are connected with tubing so that relative vertical shifts between sensors can be determined. There are low beta quadrupoles at the B0 and D0 interaction regions of Tevatron accelerator. These quadrupoles use BINP designed and built sensors and have a resolution of 1 micron. All regular lattice superconducting quadrupoles (a total of 204) in the Tevatron use a Fermilab designed system and have a resolution of 6 microns. Data on quadrupole motion due to quenches, changes in temperature will be presented. In addition data for ground motion for ILC studies caused by natural and cultural factors will be presented.

  4. Integrated hydro-bacterial modelling for predicting bathing water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Guoxian; Falconer, Roger A.; Lin, Binliang

    2017-03-01

    In recent years health risks associated with the non-compliance of bathing water quality have received increasing worldwide attention. However, it is particularly challenging to establish the source of any non-compliance, due to the complex nature of the source of faecal indicator organisms, and the fate and delivery processes and scarcity of field measured data in many catchments and estuaries. In the current study an integrated hydro-bacterial model, linking a catchment, 1-D model and 2-D model were integrated to simulate the adsorption-desorption processes of faecal bacteria to and from sediment particles in river, estuarine and coastal waters, respectively. The model was then validated using hydrodynamic, sediment and faecal bacteria concentration data, measured in 2012, in the Ribble river and estuary, and along the Fylde coast, UK. Particular emphasis has been placed on the mechanism of faecal bacteria transport and decay through the deposition and resuspension of suspended sediments. The results showed that by coupling the E.coli concentration with the sediment transport processes, the accuracy of the predicted E.coli levels was improved. A series of scenario runs were then carried out to investigate the impacts of different management scenarios on the E.coli concentration levels in the coastal bathing water sites around Liverpool Bay, UK. The model results show that the level of compliance with the new EU bathing water standards can be improved significantly by extending outfalls and/or reducing urban sources by typically 50%.

  5. Creep studies for zircaloy life prediction in water reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murty, K. Linga

    1999-10-01

    Zirconium alloys, commonly used as cladding tubes in water reactors, undergo complex biaxial creep deformation. The anisotropic nature of these metals makes it relatively complex to predict their dimensional changes in-reactor. These alloys exhibit transients in creep mechanisms as stress levels change. The underlying creep mechanisms and creep anisotropy depend on the alloy composition as well as the thermomechanical treatment. The anisotropic biaxial creep of cold-worked and recrystallized Zircaloy-4 in terms of Hill’s generalized stress formulation is described, and the temperature and stress dependencies of the steady-state creep rate are reviewed. Predictive models that incorporate anelastic strain are used for transient and transients in creep.

  6. GNSS-Reflectometry based water level monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckheinrich, Jamila; Schön, Steffen; Beyerle, Georg; Apel, Heiko; Semmling, Maximilian; Wickert, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Due to climate changing conditions severe changes in the Mekong delta in Vietnam have been recorded in the last years. The goal of the German Vietnamese WISDOM (Water-related Information system for the Sustainable Development Of the Mekong Delta) project is to build an information system to support and assist the decision makers, planners and authorities for an optimized water and land management. One of WISDOM's tasks is the flood monitoring of the Mekong delta. Earth reflected L-band signals from the Global Navigation Satellite System show a high reflectivity on water and ice surfaces or on wet soil so that GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) could contribute to monitor the water level in the main streams of the Mekong delta complementary to already existing monitoring networks. In principle, two different GNSS-R methods exist: the code- and the phase-based one. As the latter being more accurate, a new generation of GORS (GNSS Occultation, Reflectometry and Scatterometry) JAVAD DELTA GNSS receiver has been developed with the aim to extract precise phase observations. In a two week lasting measurement campaign, the receiver has been tested and several reflection events at the 150-200 m wide Can Tho river in Vietnam have been recorded. To analyze the geometrical impact on the quantity and quality of the reflection traces two different antennas height were tested. To track separately the direct and the reflected signal, two antennas were used. To derive an average height of the water level, for a 15 min observation interval, a phase model has been developed. Combined with the coherent observations, the minimum slope has been calculated based on the Least- Squares method. As cycle slips and outliers will impair the results, a preprocessing of the data has been performed. A cycle slip detection strategy that allows for automatic detection, identification and correction is proposed. To identify outliers, the data snooping method developed by Baarda 1968 is used. In this

  7. iCOLT: Seasonal prediction of water irrigation need in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavan, Valentina; Villani, Giulia; Spisni, Andrea; Pratizzoli, William; Tomei, Fausto; Botarelli, Lucio; Marletto, Vittorio

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean regions are frequently exposed to water scarcity and an early assessment of the potential water requirements from summer crops is very important for water management at regional and Reclamation Consortia level. Since 2007, ARPA-SIMC has developed the operational climate service iColt (irrigazione e Classificazione delle cOLture in atto tramite Telerilevamento - irrigation and classification of crops by remote sensing), in order to monitor and predict potential water needs for crop irrigation at different geographical scales. iColt has three components: a) a classification of crops through a set of satellite images acquired at different phenological stages; b) calibrated multi-model ensemble seasonal predictions of climate indices, using as input the EUROSIP products; c) a crop water balance prediction by the model CRITERIA. The climate indices are predicted as input for a weather generator to produce an ensemble of daily meteorological time-series. The meteorological series together with the regional distribution of crops, classified by remote sensing, are used by the water balance and crop development model CRITERIA to assess the crop potential water requirement at geographical level during the following summer. CRITERIA includes an empirical model for computing the shallow water table through spring (observed ) and summer (predicted) meteorological data. The water requirements predictions are verified at the end of summer by forcing the water balance model using the observed meteorological data. The results obtained from 2011 to 2014 are described and show that the operational service has a better skill than the seasonal ensemble prediction products used as input. In all the years, the sign of the irrigation water requirements anomaly has been correctly forecasted. Furthermore, the system has shown to be able to capture the spatial variability of the predicted field. These encouraging results are thought to be due partly to the correct

  8. Predicting Students' Homework Environment Management at the Secondary School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2012-01-01

    The present study examined empirical models of variables posited to predict students' homework environment management at the secondary school level. The participants were 866 8th graders from 61 classes and 745 11th graders from 46 classes. Most of the variance in homework environment management occurred at the student level, with classmates'…

  9. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltrat...

  10. Hydrostatic Water Level Systems At Homestake DUSEL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.

    2009-12-01

    Two arrays of Fermilab-style hydrostatic water level sensors have been installed in the former Homestake gold mine in Lead, SD, the site of the new Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL). Sensors were constructed at Fermilab from 8.5 cm diameter PVC pipe (housing) that was sealed on the ends and fit with a proximity sensor. The instrument have a height of 10 cm. Two ports in each sensor housing provide for connectivity, the upper port for air and the bottom port for water. Multiple instruments connected in series provide a precise water level and differences in readings between successive sensors provide for ground tilt to be resolved. Sensor resolution is 5 μm per count and has a range of approximately 1.25 cm. Data output from each sensor is relayed to a Fermilab-constructed readout card that also has temperature/relative humidity and barometric pressure sensors connected. All data are relayed out of the mine by fiber optic cable and can be recorded by Ethernet at remote locations. The current arrays have been installed on the 2000-ft level (610 m) and consist of six instruments in each array. Three sensors were placed in a N-S oriented drift and three in an E-W oriented drift. Using this orientation, it is anticipated that tilt direction may be resolved in addition to overall tilt magnitude. To date the data show passage of earth tides and frequency analysis has revealed five components to this signal, three associated with the semi-diurnal (~12.4 hr) and two with the diurnal (~24.9 hr) tides. Currently, installation methods are being analyzed between concrete pillar and rib-mounting using the existing setup on the 2000-ft level. Using these results, two additional arrays of Fermilab instruments will be installed on the 4550-ft and 4850-ft levels (1387 and 1478 m, respectively). In addition to Fermilab instruments, several high resolution Budker tiltmeters (1 μm resolution) will be installed in the mine workings in the near future, some

  11. AUTOMATED WATER LEVEL MEASUREMENTS IN SMALL-DIAMETER AQUIFER TUBES

    SciTech Connect

    PETERSEN SW; EDRINGTON RS; MAHOOD RO; VANMIDDLESWORTH PE

    2011-01-14

    Groundwater contaminated with hexavalent chromium, strontium-90, and uranium discharges into the Columbia River along approximately 16 km (10 mi) of the shoreline. Various treatment systems have and will continue to be implemented to eliminate the impact of Hanford Site contamination to the river. To optimize the various remediation strategies, it is important to understand interactions between groundwater and the surface water of the Columbia River. An automated system to record water levels in aquifer sampling tubes installed in the hyporheic zone was designed and tested to (1) gain a more complete understanding of groundwater/river water interactions based on gaining and losing conditions ofthe Columbia River, (2) record and interpret data for consistent and defensible groundwater/surface water conceptual models that may be used to better predict subsurface contaminant fate and transport, and (3) evaluate the hydrodynamic influence of extraction wells in an expanded pump-and-treat system to optimize the treatment system. A system to measure water levels in small-diameter aquifer tubes was designed and tested in the laboratory and field. The system was configured to allow manual measurements to periodically calibrate the instrument and to permit aquifer tube sampling without removing the transducer tube. Manual measurements were collected with an e-tape designed and fabricated especially for this test. Results indicate that the transducer system accurately records groundwater levels in aquifer tubes. These data are being used to refine the conceptual and numeric models to better understand interactions in the hyporheic zone of the Columbia River and the adjacent river water and groundwater, and changes in hydrochemistry relative to groundwater flux as river water recharges the aquifer and then drains back out in response to changes in the river level.

  12. Water levels shape fishing participation in flood-control reservoirs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Meals, K. O.

    2013-01-01

    We examined the relationship between fishing effort (hours fished) and average March–May water level in 3 flood control reservoirs in Mississippi. Fishing effort increased as water level rose, peaked at intermediate water levels, and decreased at high water levels. We suggest that the observed arched-shaped relationship is driven by the shifting influence of fishability (adequacy of the fishing circumstances from an angler's perspective) and catch rate along a water level continuum. Fishability reduces fishing effort during low water, despite the potential for higher catch rates. Conversely, reduced catch rates and fishability at high water also curtail effort. Thus, both high and low water levels seem to discourage fishing effort, whereas anglers seem to favor intermediate water levels. Our results have implications for water level management in reservoirs with large water level fluctuations.

  13. Prediction of SO2 levels using neural networks.

    PubMed

    Fernández de Castro, Belén M; Prada Sánchez, José Manuel; González Manteiga, Wenceslao; Febrero Bande, Manuel; Bermúdez Cela, José Luis; Hernández Fernández, Juan José

    2003-05-01

    In this paper, we present an adaptation of the air pollution control help system in the neighborhood of a power plant in As Pontes (A Coruña, Spain), property of Endesa Generación S.A., to the European Council Directive 1999/30/CE. This system contains a statistic prediction made half an hour before the measurement, and it helps the staff in the power plant prevent air quality level episodes. The prediction is made using neural network models. This prediction is compared with one made by a semiparametric model.

  14. The response of mire vegetation to water level drawdown

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurki, Kirsi; Laine, Jukka; Vasander, Harri; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina

    2010-05-01

    Mires have a significant role in climate change mitigation due to their enormous carbon storage and due to the fluxes of greenhouse gases between ecosystem and the atmosphere. Mire vegetation is controlled by ecohydrology, climate and by the competition of plants on light and nutrients. The water logged conditions create a challenging environment for both vascular plants and bryophytes; therefore majority of plants growing in these habitats are highly specialized. Global warming is predicted to affect mire vegetation indirectly through increased evapotranspiration leading to decreased water table levels down to 14-22 centimeters. Water level drawdown is likely to affect the vegetation composition and consequently the ecosystem functioning of mires. Previous studies covering the first years following water table level drawdown have shown that vascular plants benefit from a lower water table and hollow-specific Sphagnum species suffer. In addition to changes in plant abundances the diversity of plant communities decreases. The lawn and hollow communities of Sphagna and sedges are found to be the most sensitive plant groups. It has been shown that surveys on vegetation changes can have different results depending on the time scale. The short and long term responses are likely vary in heterogenous mire vegetation; therefore predictions can be done more reliably with longer surveys. We applied BACI (before-after-control-impact) experimental approach to study the responses of different functional mire plant groups to water level drawdown. There are 3 control plots, 3 treatment plots with moderate water level drawdown and 3 plots drained for forestry 40 years ago as a reference. The plots are located in meso-, oligo- and ombrotrophic sites in Lakkasuo (Orivesi, Finland). The vegetation was surveyed from permanent sampling points before ditching in 2000 and during the years 2001-2003 and 2009. The data was analyzed with NMDS (PC-Ord) and DCA (CANOCO). Overall results show

  15. Prediction of monthly regional groundwater levels through hybrid soft-computing techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Huang, Chien-Wei; Kao, I.-Feng

    2016-10-01

    Groundwater systems are intrinsically heterogeneous with dynamic temporal-spatial patterns, which cause great difficulty in quantifying their complex processes, while reliable predictions of regional groundwater levels are commonly needed for managing water resources to ensure proper service of water demands within a region. In this study, we proposed a novel and flexible soft-computing technique that could effectively extract the complex high-dimensional input-output patterns of basin-wide groundwater-aquifer systems in an adaptive manner. The soft-computing models combined the Self Organized Map (SOM) and the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) network for predicting monthly regional groundwater levels based on hydrologic forcing data. The SOM could effectively classify the temporal-spatial patterns of regional groundwater levels, the NARX could accurately predict the mean of regional groundwater levels for adjusting the selected SOM, the Kriging was used to interpolate the predictions of the adjusted SOM into finer grids of locations, and consequently the prediction of a monthly regional groundwater level map could be obtained. The Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan was the study case, and its monthly data sets collected from 203 groundwater stations, 32 rainfall stations and 6 flow stations during 2000 and 2013 were used for modelling purpose. The results demonstrated that the hybrid SOM-NARX model could reliably and suitably predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels with high correlations (R2 > 0.9 in both training and testing cases). The proposed methodology presents a milestone in modelling regional environmental issues and offers an insightful and promising way to predict monthly basin-wide groundwater levels, which is beneficial to authorities for sustainable water resources management.

  16. Identifying Groundwater Droughts using standardized Water Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haas, J. C.; Birk, S.

    2015-12-01

    Drought indices are frequently used to compare the occurrence and characteristics of droughts at different sites as well as to characterize different hydrometeorological aspects of drought. The existing indices have been mostly focused on precipitation, soil moisture, and surface waters though. To enable a comparison of groundwater drought with other hydrometeorological aspects of drought, the Standardized Groundwater level Index SGI was proposed by Bloomfield and Marchant (2013). So far, the SGI has been applied only to consolidated aquifers in the UK. The purpose of this work is to assess the applicability and performance of the SGI in unconsolidated, porous aquifers situated in valleys, which represent the main sources of drinking water in many regions. For this purpose, long-term time series of groundwater levels both in wet and dry regions of Austria are analyzed and compared with time series of precipitation, evapotranspiration and river stages. It is shown that large drought events, such as 2003 with only 79% of the long-term average precipitation, but also less severe events are reflected by negative SGI anomalies. To identify and classify time periods with a groundwater deficit, such benchmark years are used to propose a threshold value of the SGI defining the onset of a drought. Time periods where a clear drop in SGI does not correspond to a significant anomaly in precipitation are also visible in the data. More detailed investigations into small valley fill aquifers in the south-east of Austria reveal that the SGI may closely correlate with river stage fluctuations. Also, effects of the geographic setting (mountainous area vs. lowland) and the impacts of human activities (hydropower, drinking water extraction) are shown. Bloomfield, J. P., Marchant, B. P., Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4769-4787, 2013.

  17. Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIntosh, Peter C.; Church, John A.; Miles, Elaine R.; Ridgway, Ken; Spillman, Claire M.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level varies on a range of time scales from tidal to decadal and centennial change. To date, little attention has been focussed on the prediction of interannual sea level anomalies. Here we demonstrate that forecasts of coastal sea level anomalies from the dynamical Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) have significant skill throughout the equatorial Pacific and along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Indian Oceans at lead times out to 8 months. POAMA forecasts for the western Pacific generally have greater skill than persistence, particularly at longer lead times. POAMA also has comparable or greater skill than previously published statistical forecasts from both a Markov model and canonical correlation analysis. Our results indicate the capability of physically based models to address the challenge of providing skillful forecasts of seasonal sea level fluctuations for coastal communities over a broad area and at a range of lead times.

  18. Validity of Impedance Predictions at Various Levels of Fatness,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-01-01

    estimates of total body water and of fat-free mass. The validity of RES to predict percent body fat (%BF) was evaluated in a sample of 403 male (Mean...were collected on a sample of 403 male and 135 female military personnel. Characteristics of this population sample are provided in Table 1...inferior to the axilla and at the nipple line as described by Beckett and Hodgdon (1985) and Behnke and Wilmore (1974), respectively. Abdominal

  19. Modelling water table levels to integrate wetland management and ecosystem functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acreman, M.; Bradford, R.

    2003-04-01

    The Somerset Levels and Moors (UK) contain a range of wetland types with different management regimes, including important areas of wet grassland habitats. A groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, is applied at the field-scale to predict spatial and temporal variations in water table levels. The results are used for a range of applications, including the impact of controlled water levels for the conflicting water requirements of agriculture and biodiversity and to assist the study of microbial activity that controls methane production.

  20. A high resolution water level forecast for the German Bight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niehüser, Sebastian; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Many coastal regions worldwide are potentially endangered by storm surges which can cause disastrous damages and loss of life. Due to climate change induced sea level rise, an accumulation of such events is expected by the end of the 21th century. Therefore, advanced storm surge warnings are needed to be prepared when another storm surge hits the coast. In the shallow southeastern North Sea these storm surge warnings are nowadays routinely provided for selected tide gauge locations along a coastline through state-of-the-art forecast systems, which are based on a coupled system of empirical tidal predictions and numerical storm surge forecasts. Along the German North Sea coastline, the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency in cooperation with the German Weather Service is responsible for the storm surge warnings. They provide accurate, high frequency and real-time water level forecasts for up to six days ahead at selected tide gauge sites via internet, telephone and broadcast. Since water levels along the German North Sea coastline are dominated by shallow water effects and a very complex bathymetric structure of the seabed, the pointwise forecast is not necessarily transferable to un-gauged areas between the tide gauges. Here we aim to close this existing gap and develop water level forecasts with a high spatial (continuously with a resolution of at least 1 kilometer) as well as a high temporal (at least 15-minute values) resolution along the entire German North Sea coastline. We introduce a new methodology for water level forecasts which combines empirical or statistical and numerical models. While the tidal forecast is performed by non-parametric interpolation techniques between un-gauged and gauged sites, storm surges are estimated on the basis of statistical/empirical storm surge formulas taken from a numerical model hindcast. The procedure will be implemented in the operational mode forced with numerical weather forecasts.

  1. Predictions of the Properties of Water from First Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bukowski, Robert; Szalewicz, Krzysztof; Groenenboom, Gerrit C.; van der Avoird, Ad

    2007-03-01

    A force field for water has been developed entirely from first principles, without any fitting to experimental data. It contains both pairwise and many-body interactions. This force field predicts the properties of the water dimer and of liquid water in excellent agreement with experiments, a previously elusive objective. Precise knowledge of the intermolecular interactions in water will facilitate a better understanding of this ubiquitous substance.

  2. Water Impact Prediction Tool for Recoverable Rockets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rooker, William; Glaese, John; Clayton, Joe

    2011-01-01

    Reusing components from a rocket launch can be cost saving. NASA's space shuttle system has reusable components that return to the Earth and impact the ocean. A primary example is the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) that descends on parachutes to the Earth after separation and impacts the ocean. Water impact generates significant structural loads that can damage the booster, so it is important to study this event in detail in the design of the recovery system. Some recent examples of damage due to water impact include the Ares I-X First Stage deformation as seen in Figure 1 and the loss of the SpaceX Falcon 9 First Stage.To ensure that a component can be recovered or that the design of the recovery system is adequate, an adequate set of structural loads is necessary for use in failure assessments. However, this task is difficult since there are many conditions that affect how a component impacts the water and the resulting structural loading that a component sees. These conditions include the angle of impact with respect to the water, the horizontal and vertical velocities, the rotation rate, the wave height and speed, and many others. There have been attempts to simulate water impact. One approach is to analyze water impact using explicit finite element techniques such as those employed by the LS-Dyna tool [1]. Though very detailed, this approach is time consuming and would not be suitable for running Monte Carlo or optimization analyses. The purpose of this paper is to describe a multi-body simulation tool that runs quickly and that captures the environments a component might see. The simulation incorporates the air and water interaction with the component, the component dynamics (i.e. modes and mode shapes), any applicable parachutes and lines, the interaction of winds and gusts, and the wave height and speed. It is capable of quickly conducting Monte Carlo studies to better capture the environments and genetic algorithm optimizations to reproduce a

  3. Plasma metabolite levels predict bird growth rates: A field test of model predictive ability.

    PubMed

    Albano, Noelia; Masero, José A; Villegas, Auxiliadora; Abad-Gómez, José María; Sánchez-Guzmán, Juan M

    2011-09-01

    Bird growth rates are usually derived from nonlinear relationships between age and some morphological structure, but this procedure may be limited by several factors. To date, nothing is known about the capacity of plasma metabolite profiling to predict chick growth rates. Based on laboratory-trials, we here develop predictive logistic models of body mass, and tarsus and wing length growth rates in Gull-billed Tern Gelochelidon nilotica chicks from measurements of plasma metabolite levels at different developmental stages. The predictive model obtained during the fastest growth period (at the age of 12 days) explained 65-68% of the chicks' growth rates, with fasting triglyceride level explaining most of the variation in growth rate. At the end of pre-fledging period, β-hydroxybutyrate level was also a good predictor of growth rates. Finally, we carried out a field test to check the predictive capacity of the models in two colonies of wild Gull-billed Tern, comparing field-measured and model-predicted growth rates between groups. Both, measured and predicted growth rates, matched statistically. Plasma metabolite levels can thus be applied in comparative studies of chick growth rates when semi-precocial birds can be captured only once.

  4. Onboard Prediction of Propagation Loss in Shallow Water

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-09-16

    substrate roughn*p, (4) modal coupling, and (6) biologia scAtterers;,6. Grain asiz distribution Is not an adequate predctor of acoustical properties; heuce...INTRODUCTION ......................................... 1 GENERAL COMMENTS ................................... 2 SEDIMENT SOUND SPEED AND DENSITY...for an onboard perfor- mance prediction capability in shallow water. There is a general requirement for an onboard performance prediction capability

  5. A Simple, Inexpensive Water-Leveling Device for Ultramicrotomy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, Austin E.

    1978-01-01

    Describes a device for maintaining the proper water level in knife boats during ultramicrotomy. Water levels in troughs are adjusted rapidly and precisely during the cutting process. Illustrations are included. (Author/MA)

  6. Water Habitat Study: Prediction Makes It More Meaningful.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasgow, Dennis R.

    1982-01-01

    Suggests a teaching strategy for water habitat studies to help students make a meaningful connection between physiochemical data (dissolved oxygen content, pH, and water temperature) and biological specimens they collect. Involves constructing a poster and using it to make predictions. Provides sample poster. (DC)

  7. Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model (TBWCM): As a Predictive Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model was developed as a predictive tool for estimating the impact of changing nutrient loads on water clarity as measured by secchi depth. The model combines a physical mixing model with an irradiance model and nutrient cycling model. A 10 segment bi...

  8. Predictive accuracy of a ground-water model--Lessons from a postaudit

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Konikow, Leonard F.

    1986-01-01

    Hydrogeologic studies commonly include the development, calibration, and application of a deterministic simulation model. To help assess the value of using such models to make predictions, a postaudit was conducted on a previously studied area in the Salt River and lower Santa Cruz River basins in central Arizona. A deterministic, distributed-parameter model of the ground-water system in these alluvial basins was calibrated by Anderson (1968) using about 40 years of data (1923–64). The calibrated model was then used to predict future water-level changes during the next 10 years (1965–74). Examination of actual water-level changes in 77 wells from 1965–74 indicates a poor correlation between observed and predicted water-level changes. The differences have a mean of 73 ft that is, predicted declines consistently exceeded those observed and a standard deviation of 47 ft. The bias in the predicted water-level change can be accounted for by the large error in the assumed total pumpage during the prediction period. However, the spatial distribution of errors in predicted water-level change does not correlate with the spatial distribution of errors in pumpage. Consequently, the lack of precision probably is not related only to errors in assumed pumpage, but may indicate the presence of other sources of error in the model, such as the two-dimensional representation of a three-dimensional problem or the lack of consideration of land-subsidence processes. This type of postaudit is a valuable method of verifying a model, and an evaluation of predictive errors can provide an increased understanding of the system and aid in assessing the value of undertaking development of a revised model.

  9. Land-ice modeling for sea-level prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lipscomb, William H

    2010-06-11

    There has been major progress in ice sheet modeling since IPCC AR4. We will soon have efficient higherorder ice sheet models that can run at ",1 km resolution for entire ice sheets, either standalone or coupled to GeMs. These models should significantly reduce uncertainties in sea-level predictions. However, the least certain and potentially greatest contributions to 21st century sea-level rise may come from ice-ocean interactions, especially in West Antarctica. This is a coupled modeling problem that requires collaboration among ice, ocean and atmosphere modelers.

  10. County Level Assessment of Impaired Waters and Gastrointestinal Infections

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation therefore, assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water ...

  11. Recent and late quaternary changes in water level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walcott, R. I.

    1975-01-01

    Water level changes of both the Great Lakes and the sea are described along with methods of analyzing water level data. The influence of elastic deformation of the earth and viscosity is discussed. Causes of water level changes reviewed include: earth movements, geoid changes, storm surges or meteorological phenomena, and melting ice in Antarctica, Greenland, and the mountain glaciers.

  12. Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

    2015-01-01

    Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and

  13. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  14. Offset-Free Model Predictive Control of Open Water Channel Based on Moving Horizon Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekin Aydin, Boran; Rutten, Martine

    2016-04-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control option which is increasingly used by operational water managers for managing water systems. The explicit consideration of constraints and multi-objective management are important features of MPC. However, due to the water loss in open water systems by seepage, leakage and evaporation a mismatch between the model and the real system will be created. These mismatch affects the performance of MPC and creates an offset from the reference set point of the water level. We present model predictive control based on moving horizon estimation (MHE-MPC) to achieve offset free control of water level for open water canals. MHE-MPC uses the past predictions of the model and the past measurements of the system to estimate unknown disturbances and the offset in the controlled water level is systematically removed. We numerically tested MHE-MPC on an accurate hydro-dynamic model of the laboratory canal UPC-PAC located in Barcelona. In addition, we also used well known disturbance modeling offset free control scheme for the same test case. Simulation experiments on a single canal reach show that MHE-MPC outperforms disturbance modeling offset free control scheme.

  15. Serum Reactive Oxygen Metabolite Levels Predict Severe Exacerbations of Asthma

    PubMed Central

    Nakamoto, Keitaro; Watanabe, Masato; Sada, Mitsuru; Inui, Toshiya; Nakamura, Masuo; Honda, Kojiro; Wada, Hiroo; Mikami, Yu; Matsuzaki, Hirotaka; Horie, Masafumi; Noguchi, Satoshi; Yamauchi, Yasuhiro; Koyama, Hikari; Kogane, Toshiyuki; Kohyama, Tadashi; Takizawa, Hajime

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Bronchial asthma (BA) is a chronic airway disease characterized by airway hyperresponsiveness and remodeling, which are intimately linked to chronic airway inflammation. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) such as hydrogen peroxide are generated by inflammatory cells that are involved in the pathogenesis of BA. However, the role of ROS in the management of BA patients is not yet clear. We attempted to determine the role of ROS as a biomarker in the clinical setting of BA. Subjects and Methods We enrolled patients with BA from 2013 through 2015 and studied the degrees of asthma control, anti-asthma treatment, pulmonary function test results, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), serum reactive oxygen metabolite (ROM) levels, and serum levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-8. Results We recruited 110 patients with BA. Serum ROM levels correlated with white blood cell (WBC) count (rs = 0.273, p = 0.004), neutrophil count (rs = 0.235, p = 0.014), CRP (rs = 0.403, p < 0.001), and IL-6 (rs = 0.339, p < 0.001). Serum ROM levels and IL-8 and CRP levels negatively correlated with %FEV1 (rs = -0.240, p = 0.012, rs = -0.362, p < 0.001, rs = -0.197, p = 0.039, respectively). Serum ROM levels were significantly higher in patients who experienced severe exacerbation within 3 months than in patients who did not (339 [302–381] vs. 376 [352–414] CARR U, p < 0.025). Receiver-operating characteristics analysis showed that ROM levels correlated significantly with the occurrence of severe exacerbation (area under the curve: 0.699, 95% CI: 0.597–0.801, p = 0.025). Conclusions Serum levels of ROM were significantly associated with the degrees of airway obstruction, WBC counts, neutrophil counts, IL-6, and severe exacerbations. This biomarker may be useful in predicting severe exacerbations of BA. PMID:27776186

  16. Evaluation of formation water chemistry and scale prediction: Bakken Shale

    DOE PAGES

    Thyne, Geoffrey; Brady, Patrick

    2016-10-24

    Determination of in situ formation water chemistry is an essential component of reservoir management. This study details the use of thermodynamic computer models to calculate reservoir pH and restore produced water analyses for prediction of scale formation. Bakken produced water samples were restored to formation conditions and calculations of scale formation performed. In situ pH is controlled by feldspar-clay equilibria. Calcite scale is readily formed due to changes in pH during pressure drop from in situ to surface conditions. The formation of anhydrite and halite scale, which has been observed, was predicted only for the most saline samples. Finally, inmore » addition, the formation of anhydrite and/or halite may be related to the localized conditions of increased salinity as water is partitioned into the gas phase during production.« less

  17. Evaluation of formation water chemistry and scale prediction: Bakken Shale

    SciTech Connect

    Thyne, Geoffrey; Brady, Patrick

    2016-10-24

    Determination of in situ formation water chemistry is an essential component of reservoir management. This study details the use of thermodynamic computer models to calculate reservoir pH and restore produced water analyses for prediction of scale formation. Bakken produced water samples were restored to formation conditions and calculations of scale formation performed. In situ pH is controlled by feldspar-clay equilibria. Calcite scale is readily formed due to changes in pH during pressure drop from in situ to surface conditions. The formation of anhydrite and halite scale, which has been observed, was predicted only for the most saline samples. Finally, in addition, the formation of anhydrite and/or halite may be related to the localized conditions of increased salinity as water is partitioned into the gas phase during production.

  18. Predicting mass rapid transit noise levels on an elevated station.

    PubMed

    Pamanikabud, Pichai; Paoprayoon, Suwajchai

    2003-04-01

    This study developed a noise prediction model for elevated mass rapid transit (MRT) platforms. Relevant physical and operational parameters (e.g. cruise speed, acceleration and deceleration rates for trains, building façade setbacks and so on) were collected from the Bangkok mass transit system (BTS), the first elevated MRT system operated in Bangkok, Thailand. The equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (L(Aeq)) were collected from both sides of the MRT stations at the center of each platform. The relevant parameters were collected on both platforms and ground level, on both sides of MRT stations. These parameters were statistically tested to determine their correlation with MRT noise. The final model was built from highly correlated parameters using multiple regression analysis with a stepwise regression technique. Statistical evaluation showed a high degree of goodness-of-fit test for the model to the observed data. Therefore, it can be efficiently used for the projection of MRT noise in the affected areas.

  19. Hepcidin level predicts hemoglobin concentration in individuals undergoing repeated phlebotomy.

    PubMed

    Mast, Alan E; Schlumpf, Karen S; Wright, David J; Johnson, Bryce; Glynn, Simone A; Busch, Michael P; Olbina, Gordana; Westerman, Mark; Nemeth, Elizabeta; Ganz, Tomas

    2013-08-01

    Dietary iron absorption is regulated by hepcidin, an iron regulatory protein produced by the liver. Hepcidin production is regulated by iron stores, erythropoiesis and inflammation, but its physiology when repeated blood loss occurs has not been characterized. Hepcidin was assayed in plasma samples obtained from 114 first-time/reactivated (no blood donations in preceding 2 years) female donors and 34 frequent (≥3 red blood cell donations in preceding 12 months) male donors as they were phlebotomized ≥4 times over 18-24 months. Hepcidin levels were compared to ferritin and hemoglobin levels using multivariable repeated measures regression models. Hepcidin, ferritin and hemoglobin levels declined with increasing frequency of donation in the first-time/reactivated females. Hepcidin and ferritin levels correlated well with each other (Spearman's correlation of 0.74), but on average hepcidin varied more between donations for a given donor relative to ferritin. In a multivariable repeated measures regression model the predicted inter-donation decline in hemoglobin varied as a function of hepcidin and ferritin; hemoglobin was 0.51 g/dL lower for subjects with low (>45.7 ng/mL) or decreasing hepcidin and low ferritin (>26 ng/mL), and was essentially zero for other subjects including those with high (>45.7 ng/mL) or increasing hepcidin and low ferritin (>26 ng/mL) levels (P<0.001). In conclusion, hepcidin levels change rapidly in response to dietary iron needed for erythropoiesis. The dynamic regulation of hepcidin in the presence of a low levels of ferritin suggests that plasma hepcidin concentration may provide clinically useful information about an individual's iron status (and hence capacity to tolerate repeated blood donations) beyond that of ferritin alone. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00097006.

  20. Theory of mind predicts severity level in autism.

    PubMed

    Hoogenhout, Michelle; Malcolm-Smith, Susan

    2017-02-01

    We investigated whether theory of mind skills can indicate autism spectrum disorder severity. In all, 62 children with autism spectrum disorder completed a developmentally sensitive theory of mind battery. We used intelligence quotient, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.) diagnosis and level of support needed as indicators of severity level. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we found three distinct clusters of theory of mind ability: early-developing theory of mind (Cluster 1), false-belief reasoning (Cluster 2) and sophisticated theory of mind understanding (Cluster 3). The clusters corresponded to severe, moderate and mild autism spectrum disorder. As an indicator of level of support needed, cluster grouping predicted the type of school children attended. All Cluster 1 children attended autism-specific schools; Cluster 2 was divided between autism-specific and special needs schools and nearly all Cluster 3 children attended general special needs and mainstream schools. Assessing theory of mind skills can reliably discriminate severity levels within autism spectrum disorder.

  1. 26. Mechanical float gages used to monitor level of water ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    26. Mechanical float gages used to monitor level of water in the filtration bed reservoir. - Lake Whitney Water Filtration Plant, Filtration Plant, South side of Armory Street between Edgehill Road & Whitney Avenue, Hamden, New Haven County, CT

  2. Neural networks to simulate regional ground water levels affected by human activities.

    PubMed

    Feng, Shaoyuan; Kang, Shaozhong; Huo, Zailin; Chen, Shaojun; Mao, Xiaomin

    2008-01-01

    In arid regions, human activities like agriculture and industry often require large ground water extractions. Under these circumstances, appropriate ground water management policies are essential for preventing aquifer overdraft, and thereby protecting critical ecologic and economic objectives. Identification of such policies requires accurate simulation capability of the ground water system in response to hydrological, meteorological, and human factors. In this research, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and applied to investigate the effects of these factors on ground water levels in the Minqin oasis, located in the lower reach of Shiyang River Basin, in Northwest China. Using data spanning 1980 through 1997, two ANNs were developed to model and simulate dynamic ground water levels for the two subregions of Xinhe and Xiqu. The ANN models achieved high predictive accuracy, validating to 0.37 m or less mean absolute error. Sensitivity analyses were conducted with the models demonstrating that agricultural ground water extraction for irrigation is the predominant factor responsible for declining ground water levels exacerbated by a reduction in regional surface water inflows. ANN simulations indicate that it is necessary to reduce the size of the irrigation area to mitigate ground water level declines in the oasis. Unlike previous research, this study demonstrates that ANN modeling can capture important temporally and spatially distributed human factors like agricultural practices and water extraction patterns on a regional basin (or subbasin) scale, providing both high-accuracy prediction capability and enhanced understanding of the critical factors influencing regional ground water conditions.

  3. Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1974 through 1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ragsdale, J.O.; Oberender, C.B.

    1985-01-01

    Ground-water levels are measured periodically in a network of about 270 observation wells in Wyoming, mostly in areas where ground water is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. The program is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State engineer and the Wyoming Department of Economic Planning and Development. This report contains hydrographs for most observation wells showing water-level fluctuations from 1974 through 1983. Also included in the report are maps showing locations of observation wells and tabulations of well depths, use of water, geologic source, records available, and highest and lowest water levels for the period of record. (USGS)

  4. Center Hill Reservoir Fishery Study--Water Level Effects.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-08-01

    The pH and the range of its variations are dependent upon the buffering capacity within a lake . In water containing a bicarbonate in solution, for...WORDS (Continue on reverse aide It noc.esr anidmt ntby block mbi’) Center Hill Lake , TN, Water Levels, Fisheries, Water Quality, Trends. 12A4, C -gvr...water level fluctuation is not a&p~ropriate at Center Hill Lake The graphical analysis of the relationship between the rate of water level change in feet

  5. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model status and updates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This presentation will provide current information on the USDA-ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, and its implementation by the USDA-Forest Service (FS), USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and other agencies and universities. Most recently, the USDA-NRCS has begun ef...

  6. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillsl...

  7. Assessing the effect of different river water level interpolation schemes on modeled groundwater residence times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diem, Samuel; Renard, Philippe; Schirmer, Mario

    2014-03-01

    Obtaining a quantitative understanding of river-groundwater interactions is of high practical relevance, for instance within the context of riverbank filtration and river restoration. Modeling interactions between river and groundwater requires knowledge of the river's spatiotemporal water level distribution. The dynamic nature of riverbed morphology in restored river reaches might result in complex river water level distributions, including disconnected river branches, nonlinear longitudinal water level profiles and morphologically induced lateral water level gradients. Recently, two new methods were proposed to accurately and efficiently capture 2D water level distributions of dynamic rivers. In this study, we assessed the predictive capability of these methods with respect to simulated groundwater residence times. Both methods were used to generate surface water level distributions of a 1.2 km long partly restored river reach of the Thur River in northeastern Switzerland. We then assigned these water level distributions as boundary conditions to a 3D steady-state groundwater flow and transport model. When applying either of the new methods, the calibration-constrained groundwater flow field accurately predicted the spatial distribution of groundwater residence times; deviations were within a range of 30% when compared to residence times obtained using a reference method. We further tested the sensitivity of the simulated groundwater residence times to a simplified river water level distribution. The negligence of lateral river water level gradients of 20-30 cm on a length of 200 m caused errors of 40-80% in the calibration-constrained groundwater residence time distribution compared to results that included lateral water level gradients. The additional assumption of a linear water level distribution in longitudinal river direction led to deviations from the complete river water level distribution of up to 50 cm, which caused wide-spread errors in simulated

  8. Water level, specific conductance, and water temperature data, San Francisco Bay, California, for Water Year 2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buchanan, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    Time series of water-level, specific-conductance, and watertemperature data were collected at seven sites in San Francisco Bay during water year 2000 (October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000). Water-level data were recorded only at Point San Pablo. Specific-conductance and water-temperature data were recorded at 15-minute intervals at the following locations (Figure 1): • Carquinez Strait at Carquinez Bridge • Napa River at Mare Island Causeway near Vallejo • San Pablo Bay at Petaluma River Channel Marker 9 • San Pablo Strait at Point San Pablo • Central San Francisco Bay at Presidio Military Reservation • Central San Francisco Bay at Pier 24 • South San Francisco Bay at San Mateo Bridge near Foster City.

  9. High serum lactate level may predict death within 24 hours

    PubMed Central

    Zoubi, Abd Almajid; Kuria, Shiran; Blum, Nava

    2015-01-01

    Background Unexpected death within 24 hours of admission is a real challenge for the clinician in the emergency room. How to diagnose these patients and the right approach to prevent sudden death with 24 hours is still an enigma. The aims of our study were to find the independent factors that may affect the clinical outcome in the first 24 hours of admission to the hospital. Methods We performed a retrospective study defining unexpected death within 24 hours of admission in our Department of Medicine in the last 6 years. We found 43 patients who died within 24 hours of admission, and compared their clinical and biochemical characteristics to 6055 consecutive patients who were admitted in that period of time and did not die within the first 24 hours of admission. The parameters that were used include gender, age, temperature, clinical and laboratory criteria for SIRS, arterial blood lactate, and arterial blood pH. Results Most of the patients who died within 24 hours had sepsis with SIRS. These patients were older (78.6±14.7 vs. 65.2±20.2 years [p<.0001]), had higher lactate levels (8.0±4.8 vs. 2.1±1.8mmol/L [p<.0001]), and lower pH (7.2±0.2 vs. 7.4±0.1 [p<.0001]). Logistic regression analysis found that lactate was the strongest independent parameter to predict death within 24 hours of admission (OR 1.366 [95% CI 1.235–1.512]), followed by old age (OR 1.048 [95% CI 1.048–1.075] and low arterial blood pH (OR 0.007 [CI <0.001–0.147]). When gender was analyzed, pH was not an independent variable in females (only in males). Conclusions The significant independent variable that predicted death within 24 hours of admission was arterial blood lactate level on admission. Older age was also an independent variable; low pH affected only males, but was a less dominant variable. We suggest use of arterial blood lactate level on admission as a bio-marker in patients with suspected sepsis admitted to the hospital for risk assessment and prediction of death within 24

  10. Tracking water levels in axisymmetric flows

    SciTech Connect

    Aktas, B.; Baratta, A.J.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1996-12-31

    An interface tracking scheme can radically improve the first-order computational methods for two-phase flow when a problem consists of an interface between liquid phase and steam. On the other hand, the authors studies have shown that failure to implement level tracking fully consistently has degraded the quality of TRAC-BF1 results. In these studies, they have presented an improved version of one-dimensional level tracking with relatively simple and physically sensible corrections. A fully consistent level tracking scheme is also necessary for best results in multidimensional two-phase flows.

  11. Ground-water levels and quality data for Georgia, 1978

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, J.S.; Hester, W.G.; O'Byrne, M. P.

    1979-01-01

    Mean water levels in wells across Georgia were from 0.25 foot higher to 11.4 feet lower in 1978 than in 1977, and in some areas were the lowest on record. Water levels in the principal artesian aquifer underwent a long-term decline during the period 1969-78. In some areas water levels dropped more than 10 feet. Wells tapping the Clayton Limestone in the Albany area showed a long-term decline during the period 1969-78, and in some wells water levels dropped more than 20 feet. Water levels in the Cretaceous aquifer system showed little fluctuation during 1978; however, in a well located in Chattahoochee County, water levels declined 4.4 feet during 1969-78. In the Piedmont area mean water levels remained the same to 2.2 feet lower in 1978 than in 1977, and showed no long-term trend. Chloride concentrations in the principal artesian aquifer in the Savannah area remained stable and in the Brunswick area continued to rise during 1978. Daily mean water-level fluctuations and trends for 1978 and fluctuations of the monthly mean water level for the previous 10 years are shown in hydrographs of 33 selected observation wells in Georgia. Chloride concentrations in 11 wells in the Savannah and Brunswick areas are shown in graphs of monthly values over the previous 10 years. A short narrative explains fluctuations and trends in each of the hydrographs and chloride concentration graphs shown. (Woodard-USGS)

  12. Predicting stream water quality using artificial neural networks (ANN)

    SciTech Connect

    Bowers, J.A.

    2000-05-17

    Predicting point and nonpoint source runoff of dissolved and suspended materials into their receiving streams is important to protecting water quality and traditionally has been modeled using deterministic or statistical methods. The purpose of this study was to predict water quality in small streams using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The selected input variables were local precipitation, stream flow rates and turbidity for the initial prediction of suspended solids in the stream. A single hidden-layer feedforward neural network using backpropagation learning algorithms was developed with a detailed analysis of model design of those factors affecting successful implementation of the model. All features of a feedforward neural model were investigated including training set creation, number and layers of neurons, neural activation functions, and backpropagation algorithms. Least-squares regression was used to compare model predictions with test data sets. Most of the model configurations offered excellent predictive capabilities. Using either the logistic or the hyperbolic tangent neural activation function did not significantly affect predicted results. This was also true for the two learning algorithms tested, the Levenberg-Marquardt and Polak-Ribiere conjugate-gradient descent methods. The most important step during model development and training was the representative selection of data records for training of the model.

  13. Animating ground water levels with Excel.

    PubMed

    Shikaze, Steven G; Crowe, Allan S

    2003-01-01

    This note describes the use of Microsoft Excel macros (programs written in Excel's internal language, Visual Basic for Applications) to create simple onscreen animations of transient ground water data within Excel. Compared to many specialized visualization software packages, the use of Excel macros is much cheaper, much simpler, and can rapidly be learned. The Excel macro can also be used to create individual GIF files for each animation frame. This series of frames can then be used to create an AVI video file using any of a number of graphics packages, such as Corel PhotoPaint. The technique is demonstrated through a macro that animates changes in the elevation of a water table along a transect over several years.

  14. Predicting levels of Latino depression: acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping.

    PubMed

    Torres, Lucas

    2010-04-01

    Past research has noted that aspects of living in the United States place Latinos at risk for experiencing psychological problems. However, the specific features of the adaptation process that contribute to depression remain unclear. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the ability of acculturation, acculturative stress, and coping to predict membership into low, medium, and high groups of depression among Latinos. Within a group of 148 Latino adults from the community, a multinomial logistic regression revealed that an Anglo orientation, English competency pressures, and active coping differentiated high from low depression and that a Latino orientation and, to some extent, the pressure to acculturate distinguished medium from low depression. These results highlight a pattern of characteristics that function as risk and protective factors in relation to level of symptom severity. The findings are discussed in terms of implications for Latino mental health, including considerations for intervention and prevention.

  15. Mercury and water level fluctuations in lakes of northern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larson, James H.; Maki, Ryan P; Christensen, Victoria G.; Sandheinrich, Mark B.; LeDuc, Jaime F.; Kissane, Claire; Knights, Brent C.

    2017-01-01

    Large lake ecosystems support a variety of ecosystem services in surrounding communities, including recreational and commercial fishing. However, many northern temperate fisheries are contaminated by mercury. Annual variation in mercury accumulation in fish has previously been linked to water level (WL) fluctuations, opening the possibility of regulating water levels in a manner that minimizes or reduces mercury contamination in fisheries. Here, we compiled a long-term dataset (1997-2015) of mercury content in young-of-year Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) from six lakes on the border between the U.S. and Canada and examined whether mercury content appeared to be related to several metrics of WL fluctuation (e.g., spring WL rise, annual maximum WL, and year-to-year change in maximum WL). Using simple correlation analysis, several WL metrics appear to be strongly correlated to Yellow Perch mercury content, although the strength of these correlations varies by lake. We also used many WL metrics, water quality measurements, temperature and annual deposition data to build predictive models using partial least squared regression (PLSR) analysis for each lake. These PLSR models showed some variation among lakes, but also supported strong associations between WL fluctuations and annual variation in Yellow Perch mercury content. The study lakes underwent a modest change in WL management in 2000, when winter WL minimums were increased by about 1 m in five of the six study lakes. Using the PLSR models, we estimated how this change in WL management would have affected Yellow Perch mercury content. For four of the study lakes, the change in WL management that occurred in 2000 likely reduced Yellow Perch mercury content, relative to the previous WL management regime.

  16. Predicting the Distribution of Yellowfin Tuna in Philippine Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, G. J. P.; Leonardo, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Philippines is considered as a major tuna producer in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, both for domestic consumption and on industrial scale. However, with the ever-increasing demand of growing population, it has always been a challenge to achieve sustainable fishing. The creation of satellite-derived potential fishing zone maps is a technology that has been adopted by advanced countries for almost three decades already and has led to reduction in search times by up to 40%. In this study, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is developed to predict the distribution of the Yellowfin tuna species in seas surrounding the Philippines based on the Catch-Per-Unit-Effort (CPUE) index. Level 3 gridded chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are the main input parameters of the model. Chlorophyll-a is linked with the presence of phytoplankton, which indicates primary productivity and suggests potential regions of fish aggregation. Fish also prefers to stay in regions where the temperature is stable, thus the sea surface temperature fronts serve as a guide to locate concentrations of fish school. Historical monthly tuna catch data from Western and Central Pacific Commissions (WCPFC) is used to train the model. The resulting predictions are converted to potential fishing zone maps and are evaluated within and beyond the historical time range of the training data used. Diagnostic tests involving adjusted R2 value, GAM residual plots and root mean square error value are used to assess the accuracy of the model. The generated maps were able to confirm locations of known tuna fishing grounds in Mindanao and other parts of the country, as well us detect their seasonality and interannual variability. To improve the performance of the model, ancillary data such as surface winds reanalysis from National Centers for

  17. Predicting Risk from Radon in Source Waters from Water Quality Parameters

    EPA Science Inventory

    Overall, 47 groundwater samples were collected from 45 small community water systems (CWSs) and analyzed for radon and other water quality constituents. In general, groundwater from unconsolidated deposits and sedimentary rocks had lower average radon levels (ranging from 223 to...

  18. Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and

  19. Underwater noise levels in UK waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merchant, Nathan D.; Brookes, Kate L.; Faulkner, Rebecca C.; Bicknell, Anthony W. J.; Godley, Brendan J.; Witt, Matthew J.

    2016-11-01

    Underwater noise from human activities appears to be rising, with ramifications for acoustically sensitive marine organisms and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Policymakers are beginning to address the risk of ecological impact, but are constrained by a lack of data on current and historic noise levels. Here, we present the first nationally coordinated effort to quantify underwater noise levels, in support of UK policy objectives under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Field measurements were made during 2013–2014 at twelve sites around the UK. Median noise levels ranged from 81.5–95.5 dB re 1 μPa for one-third octave bands from 63–500 Hz. Noise exposure varied considerably, with little anthropogenic influence at the Celtic Sea site, to several North Sea sites with persistent vessel noise. Comparison of acoustic metrics found that the RMS level (conventionally used to represent the mean) was highly skewed by outliers, exceeding the 97th percentile at some frequencies. We conclude that environmental indicators of anthropogenic noise should instead use percentiles, to ensure statistical robustness. Power analysis indicated that at least three decades of continuous monitoring would be required to detect trends of similar magnitude to historic rises in noise levels observed in the Northeast Pacific.

  20. Underwater noise levels in UK waters.

    PubMed

    Merchant, Nathan D; Brookes, Kate L; Faulkner, Rebecca C; Bicknell, Anthony W J; Godley, Brendan J; Witt, Matthew J

    2016-11-10

    Underwater noise from human activities appears to be rising, with ramifications for acoustically sensitive marine organisms and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Policymakers are beginning to address the risk of ecological impact, but are constrained by a lack of data on current and historic noise levels. Here, we present the first nationally coordinated effort to quantify underwater noise levels, in support of UK policy objectives under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Field measurements were made during 2013-2014 at twelve sites around the UK. Median noise levels ranged from 81.5-95.5 dB re 1 μPa for one-third octave bands from 63-500 Hz. Noise exposure varied considerably, with little anthropogenic influence at the Celtic Sea site, to several North Sea sites with persistent vessel noise. Comparison of acoustic metrics found that the RMS level (conventionally used to represent the mean) was highly skewed by outliers, exceeding the 97(th) percentile at some frequencies. We conclude that environmental indicators of anthropogenic noise should instead use percentiles, to ensure statistical robustness. Power analysis indicated that at least three decades of continuous monitoring would be required to detect trends of similar magnitude to historic rises in noise levels observed in the Northeast Pacific.

  1. Underwater noise levels in UK waters

    PubMed Central

    Merchant, Nathan D.; Brookes, Kate L.; Faulkner, Rebecca C.; Bicknell, Anthony W. J.; Godley, Brendan J.; Witt, Matthew J.

    2016-01-01

    Underwater noise from human activities appears to be rising, with ramifications for acoustically sensitive marine organisms and the functioning of marine ecosystems. Policymakers are beginning to address the risk of ecological impact, but are constrained by a lack of data on current and historic noise levels. Here, we present the first nationally coordinated effort to quantify underwater noise levels, in support of UK policy objectives under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Field measurements were made during 2013–2014 at twelve sites around the UK. Median noise levels ranged from 81.5–95.5 dB re 1 μPa for one-third octave bands from 63–500 Hz. Noise exposure varied considerably, with little anthropogenic influence at the Celtic Sea site, to several North Sea sites with persistent vessel noise. Comparison of acoustic metrics found that the RMS level (conventionally used to represent the mean) was highly skewed by outliers, exceeding the 97th percentile at some frequencies. We conclude that environmental indicators of anthropogenic noise should instead use percentiles, to ensure statistical robustness. Power analysis indicated that at least three decades of continuous monitoring would be required to detect trends of similar magnitude to historic rises in noise levels observed in the Northeast Pacific. PMID:27830837

  2. To be precise, the details don't matter: On predictive processing, precision, and level of detail of predictions.

    PubMed

    Kwisthout, Johan; Bekkering, Harold; van Rooij, Iris

    2017-03-01

    Many theoretical and empirical contributions to the Predictive Processing account emphasize the important role of precision modulation of prediction errors. Recently it has been proposed that the causal models used in human predictive processing are best formally modeled by categorical probability distributions. Crucially, such distributions assume a well-defined, discrete state space. In this paper we explore the consequences of this formalization. In particular we argue that the level of detail of generative models and predictions modulates prediction error. We show that both increasing the level of detail of the generative models and decreasing the level of detail of the predictions can be suitable mechanisms for lowering prediction errors. Both increase precision, yet come at the price of lowering the amount of information that can be gained by correct predictions. Our theoretical result establishes a key open empirical question to address: How does the brain optimize the trade-off between high precision and information gain when making its predictions?

  3. Temporal and spatial controls on variability in water repellency for prediction of runoff from burned watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luce, C.

    2004-12-01

    area of water repellency declines to levels less than 70% within 3-years of the fire. The decrease in fractional area is linear in time, falsifying the hypothesis that decay in water repellency is caused solely by random innovations, which would predict an exponential decay.

  4. Accurate predictions for the production of vaporized water

    SciTech Connect

    Morin, E.; Montel, F.

    1995-12-31

    The production of water vaporized in the gas phase is controlled by the local conditions around the wellbore. The pressure gradient applied to the formation creates a sharp increase of the molar water content in the hydrocarbon phase approaching the well; this leads to a drop in the pore water saturation around the wellbore. The extent of the dehydrated zone which is formed is the key controlling the bottom-hole content of vaporized water. The maximum water content in the hydrocarbon phase at a given pressure, temperature and salinity is corrected by capillarity or adsorption phenomena depending on the actual water saturation. Describing the mass transfer of the water between the hydrocarbon phases and the aqueous phase into the tubing gives a clear idea of vaporization effects on the formation of scales. Field example are presented for gas fields with temperatures ranging between 140{degrees}C and 180{degrees}C, where water vaporization effects are significant. Conditions for salt plugging in the tubing are predicted.

  5. Predicting tree water use and drought tolerance from leaf traits in the Los Angeles urban ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, G. P.; Scoffoni, C.; Sack, L.

    2013-12-01

    Urban green space provides a suite of valuable ecosystem services. In semiarid systems, like Los Angeles, trees rely primarily on irrigation water for transpiration. Managers may need to reduce irrigation associated with urban trees given climate change, urban expansion, and the steady decrease in available freshwater. While leaf and whole plant water relations have been extensively studied, we are only now gaining a detailed understanding of diverse leaf anatomical designs, and their use for predicting physiology and water use at landscape scale. For 50 diverse urban species, we quantified leaf anatomical and physiological traits important to tree drought tolerance and water use efficiency including turgor loss point, vein architecture, cellular anatomy, leaf mass per unit area, and petiole and leaf dimensions. We hypothesized detailed relationships to develop models relating leaf functional traits to tree water relations. These models provide key insights regarding the role of anatomical designs in leaf stress tolerance and water use efficiency. Additionally we predicted how traits measured at the leaf level would scale with existing data for individuals at the whole plant level. We tested our predictions by determining correlations between leaf level anatomical traits and drought tolerance. Additionally, we determined correlations between functional traits, physiology and water use, and the climate of origin for the urban species. Leaf level measurements will be valuable for rapid estimation of more difficult to measure whole plant water relations traits important at the landscape scale. The Los Angeles urban ecosystem can serve as a model for other semiarid system and provide more informed system wide water conservation strategies.

  6. A multivariate linear regression model for predicting children's blood lead levels based on soil lead levels: A study at four Superfund sites

    SciTech Connect

    Lewin, M.D.; Sarasua, S.; Jones, P.A. . Div. of Health Studies)

    1999-07-01

    For the purpose of examining the association between blood lead levels and household-specific soil lead levels, the authors used a multivariate linear regression model to find a slope factor relating soil lead levels to blood lead levels. They used previously collected data from the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) multisite lead and cadmium study. The data included in the blood lead measurements of 1,015 children aged 6--71 months, and corresponding household-specific environmental samples. The environmental samples included lead in soil, house dust, interior paint, and tap water. After adjusting for income, education or the parents, presence of a smoker in the household, sex, and dust lead, and using a double log transformation, they found a slope factor of 0.1388 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.09--0.19 for the dose-response relationship between the natural log of the soil lead level and the natural log of the blood lead level. The predicted blood lead level corresponding to a soil lead level of 500 mg/kg was 5.99 [micro]g/kg with a 95% prediction interval of 2.08--17.29. Predicted values and their corresponding prediction intervals varied by covariate level. The model shows that increased soil lead level is associated with elevated blood leads in children, but that predictions based on this regression model are subject to high levels of uncertainty and variability.

  7. A siphon gage for monitoring surface-water levels

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCobb, T.D.; LeBlanc, D.R.; Socolow, R.S.

    1999-01-01

    A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold regions cause discontinuity and inaccuracy in the data collected. Installation and field testing of a siphon gage using 0.75-in-diameter polyethylene tubing at Ashumet Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, demonstrated that the siphon gage can provide long-term data with a field effort and accuracy equivalent to measurement of ground-water levels at an observation well.A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold

  8. Predicting and mapping soil available water capacity in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Suk Young; Han, Kyung Hwa; Kim, Yihyun; Lee, Kyungdo

    2013-01-01

    The knowledge on the spatial distribution of soil available water capacity at a regional or national extent is essential, as soil water capacity is a component of the water and energy balances in the terrestrial ecosystem. It controls the evapotranspiration rate, and has a major impact on climate. This paper demonstrates a protocol for mapping soil available water capacity in South Korea at a fine scale using data available from surveys. The procedures combined digital soil mapping technology with the available soil map of 1:25,000. We used the modal profile data from the Taxonomical Classification of Korean Soils. The data consist of profile description along with physical and chemical analysis for the modal profiles of the 380 soil series. However not all soil samples have measured bulk density and water content at −10 and −1500 kPa. Thus they need to be predicted using pedotransfer functions. Furthermore, water content at −10 kPa was measured using ground samples. Thus a correction factor is derived to take into account the effect of bulk density. Results showed that Andisols has the highest mean water storage capacity, followed by Entisols and Inceptisols which have loamy texture. The lowest water retention is Entisols which are dominated by sandy materials. Profile available water capacity to a depth of 1 m was calculated and mapped for Korea. The western part of the country shows higher available water capacity than the eastern part which is mountainous and has shallower soils. The highest water storage capacity soils are the Ultisols and Alfisols (mean of 206 and 205 mm, respectively). Validation of the maps showed promising results. The map produced can be used as an indication of soil physical quality of Korean soils. PMID:23646290

  9. Ground-water levels in Arkansas, spring 1987

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Freiwald, D.A.; Plafcan, Maria

    1987-01-01

    Groundwater level measurements were made in 701 observation wells in Arkansas in the spring of 1987. This report contains the water level data presented in tables listed by aquifer; then by county. For each well, the depth to water below land surface and the altitude of the water level for 1987 are shown, along with the net change in water level between 1986 and 1987 and between 1982 and 1987. In addition, the report contains maps showing the average water level changes, by county, between the years 1982 and 1987 for the aquifers in the Quaternary deposits and the Sparta and Memphis Sands. Also shown are water level hydrographs for selected wells completed in the Quarternary deposits and Sparta Sand. The aquifers in the Quarternary deposits and the Sparta and Memphis Sands are important aquifers in eastern and southern Arkansas for agricultural, municipal, and industrial use. Water level data showed an average water level decline of 0.03 ft in the Quaternary deposits of the 24 most heavily irrigated counties of eastern Arkansas and 0.39 ft in the Sparta and Memphis Sands between the years 1982 and 1987. (USGS)

  10. Prediction of water intake and excretion flows in Holstein dairy cows under thermoneutral conditions.

    PubMed

    Khelil-Arfa, H; Boudon, A; Maxin, G; Faverdin, P

    2012-10-01

    The increase in the worldwide demand for dairy products, associated with global warming, will emphasize the issue of water use efficiency in dairy systems. The evaluation of environmental issues related to the management of animal dejections will also require precise biotechnical models that can predict effluent management in farms. In this study, equations were developed and evaluated for predicting the main water flows at the dairy cow level, based on parameters related to cow productive performance and diet under thermoneutral conditions. Two datasets were gathered. The first one comprised 342 individual measurements of water balance in dairy cows obtained during 18 trials at the experimental farm of Méjussaume (INRA, France). Predictive equations of water intake, urine and fecal water excretion were developed by multiple regression using a stepwise selection of regressors from a list of seven candidate parameters, which were milk yield, dry matter intake (DMI), body weight, diet dry matter content (DM), proportion of concentrate (CONC) and content of crude protein (CP) ingested with forage and concentrate (CPf and CPc, g/kg DM). The second dataset was used for external validation of the developed equations and comprised 196 water flow measurements on experimental lots obtained from 43 published papers related to water balance or digestibility measurements in dairy cows. Although DMI was the first predictor of the total water intake (TWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.51, DM was the first predictive parameter of free water intake (FWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.57, likely due to the large variability of DM in the first dataset (from 11.5 to 91.4 g/100 g). This confirmed the compensation between water drunk and ingested with diet when DM changes. The variability of urine volume was explained mainly by the CPf associated with DMI (r.s.d. 5.4 kg/day for an average flow of 24.0 kg/day) and that of fecal water was explained by the proportion of CONC in the diet and DMI

  11. Effects of Barometric Fluctuations on Well Water-Level Measurements and Aquifer Test Data

    SciTech Connect

    Spane, Frank A.

    1999-12-16

    This report examines the effects of barometric fluctuations on well water-level measurements and evaluates adjustment and removal methods for determining areal aquifer head conditions and aquifer test analysis. Two examples of Hanford Site unconfined aquifer tests are examined that demonstrate baro-metric response analysis and illustrate the predictive/removal capabilities of various methods for well water-level and aquifer total head values. Good predictive/removal characteristics were demonstrated with best corrective results provided by multiple-regression deconvolution methods.

  12. Lower serum uric acid level predicts mortality in dialysis patients

    PubMed Central

    Bae, Eunjin; Cho, Hyun-Jeong; Shin, Nara; Kim, Sun Moon; Yang, Seung Hee; Kim, Dong Ki; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kang, Shin-Wook; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Yon Su; Lee, Hajeong

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We evaluated the impact of serum uric acid (SUA) on mortality in patients with chronic dialysis. A total of 4132 adult patients on dialysis were enrolled prospectively between August 2008 and September 2014. Among them, we included 1738 patients who maintained dialysis for at least 3 months and had available SUA in the database. We categorized the time averaged-SUA (TA-SUA) into 5 groups: <5.5, 5.5–6.4, 6.5–7.4, 7.5–8.4, and ≥8.5 mg/dL. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality according to SUA group. The mean TA-SUA level was slightly higher in men than in women. Patients with lower TA-SUA level tended to have lower body mass index (BMI), phosphorus, serum albumin level, higher proportion of diabetes mellitus (DM), and higher proportion of malnourishment on the subjective global assessment (SGA). During a median follow-up of 43.9 months, 206 patients died. Patients with the highest SUA had a similar risk to the middle 3 TA-SUA groups, but the lowest TA-SUA group had a significantly elevated HR for mortality. The lowest TA-SUA group was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.720; 95% confidence interval, 1.007–2.937; P = 0.047) even after adjusting for demographic, comorbid, nutritional covariables, and medication use that could affect SUA levels. This association was prominent in patients with well nourishment on the SGA, a preserved serum albumin level, a higher BMI, and concomitant DM although these parameters had no significant interaction in the TA-SUA-mortality relationship except DM. In conclusion, a lower TA-SUA level <5.5 mg/dL predicted all-cause mortality in patients with chronic dialysis. PMID:27310949

  13. Statistical summaries of ground-water level data collected in the Suwannee River Water Management District, 1948 to 1994

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collins, J.J.; Freeman, L.D.

    1996-01-01

    Since 1948, ground-water level data have beensystematically collected from selected wells in theSuwannee River Water Management District (SRWMD) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS),the SRWMD, and other agencies. Records of waterlevels in the SRWMD (fig. 1), collected by the USGS and SRWMD through 1990, and by the SRWMD from 1990 to 1994, have been published for many years in the USGS annual report series "Water Resources Data for Florida." However, no systematic statistical summaries of water levels in the SRWMD have been previously published. The need for such statistical summary data forevaluations of drought severity, ground-water supplyavailability, and minimum water levels for regulatory purposes increases daily as demands for ground-water usage increase. Also, much of the base flow of the Suwannee River is dependent upon ground water. As the population and demand for ground water for drinking water and irrigation purposes increase, the ability to quickly and easily predict trends in ground-water availability will become paramount. In response to this need, the USGS, in cooperation with the SRWMD, compiled this report. Ground-water sta tistics for 136 sites are presented as well as figures showing water levels that were measured in wells from 1948 through September 1994. In 1994, the SRWMD and the USGS began a long- term program of cooperative studies designed tobetter understand minimum and maximum streamflows and ground-water levels in the SRWMD. Minimum and maximum flows and levels are needed by the district to manage the surface- and ground-water resources of the SRWMD and to maintain or improve the various ecosystems. Data evaluation was a necessary first step in the long- term SRWMD ground-water investigations program, because basic statistics for ground-water levels are not included in the USGS annual data reports such as "Water Resources Data for Florida, Water Year 1994" (Fran klin and others, 1995). Statistics included in this report were generated

  14. Lake Michigan Storm: Wave and Water Level Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-11-01

    However, this artifact did not affect the integrity of the solution as these apparitions typically occur in deep water and the difference between...ER D C/ CH L TR -1 2 -2 6 Great Lakes Coastal Flood Study, 2012 Federal Inter-Agency Initiative Lake Michigan Storm: Wave and Water Level...Federal Inter-Agency Initiative ERDC/CHL TR-12-26 November 2012 Modeling of Lake Michigan Storm Waves and Water Levels Robert E. Jensen, Mary A

  15. Fluctuations of ground-water levels in Lee County, Florida, in 1975 water year

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, T. H.

    1977-01-01

    During the 1975 water year, rainfall was about average at Page Field, Florida, and from 20-25 percent below average at Lehigh Acres and Sanibel Island. Water levels were monitored in 57 observation wells in Lee County, Florida. Of the 23 wells that tap the water-table aquifer, one record high and 5 record low water levels were established. Record low water levels were established in 5 of 20 wells that tap the sandstone aquifer and in 1 of 10 wells that tap the upper Hawthorn aquifer. A record high water level was established in 1 of 3 wells that tap the lower Hawthorn aquifer. (Woodard-USGS)

  16. Potential Seasonal Predictability of the Global Water Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X.; DelSole, T. M.; Houser, P. R.

    2011-12-01

    The potential predictability of seasonal means of water cycle components, specifically precipitation and evaporation, are estimated using recently developed methods based on Analysis of Covariance (ANOCOVA) and the bootstrap, and the previous methods proposed by Katz (KZ), Shukla-Gutzler (SG) and Madden (MN). The ANOCOVA method has the advantage of not only taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. The second method is based on the bootstrap technique that makes few assumptions about physical process, model structure and underlying distribution. The essence of the bootstrap is to randomly resample the daily time series to build up an empirical distribution of the variance of seasonal means under the null hypothesis that seasonal mean is independent of year. The predictability of the observed precipitation estimated by ANOCOVA, the bootstrap and KZ reveals similar spatial distribution patterns: large fraction of predictable variance (FPV) in tropics and low FPV over extatropics where interannual variability is not significantly distinguished from the weather noise. There are more regions identified potentially predictable in December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM) than in June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON). The ANOCOVA method exhibits the highest predictability of the three methods and is close to the bootstrap, while KZ shows the smallest FPV due to the dominance of noise. Seasonal evaporation over global land from ANOCOVA, bootstrap, SG and MN indicates that high predictability occurs predominately over tropical and southern mid-latitude land areas, and modest predictability occurs over North America and Europe. The potential

  17. Predicting ground water nitrate concentration from land use.

    PubMed

    Gardner, Kristin K; Vogel, Richard M

    2005-01-01

    Ground water nitrate concentrations on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, were analyzed to assess the effects of land use on ground water quality. Exploratory data analysis was applied to historic ground water nitrate concentrations to determine spatial and temporal trends. Maximum likelihood Tobit and logistic regression analyses of explanatory variables that characterize land use within a 1000-foot radius of each well were used to develop predictive equations for nitrate concentration at 69 wells. The results demonstrate that historic nitrate concentrations downgradient from agricultural land are significantly higher than nitrate concentrations elsewhere. Tobit regression results demonstrate that the number of septic tanks and the percentages of forest, undeveloped, and high-density residential land within a 1000-foot radius of a well are reliable predictors of nitrate concentration in ground water. Similarly, logistic regression revealed that the percentages of forest, undeveloped, and low-density residential land are good indicators of ground water nitrate concentration > 2 mg/L. The methodology and results outlined here provide a useful tool for land managers in communities with shallow water tables overlain with highly permeable materials to evaluate potential effects of development on ground water quality.

  18. Neural Affective Mechanisms Predict Market-Level Microlending.

    PubMed

    Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian

    2015-09-01

    Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample's own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience's potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior.

  19. QSPR for predicting chloroform formation in drinking water disinfection.

    PubMed

    Luilo, G B; Cabaniss, S E

    2011-01-01

    Chlorination is the most widely used technique for water disinfection, but may lead to the formation of chloroform (trichloromethane; TCM) and other by-products. This article reports the first quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) for predicting the formation of TCM in chlorinated drinking water. Model compounds (n = 117) drawn from 10 literature sources were divided into training data (n = 90, analysed by five-way leave-many-out internal cross-validation) and external validation data (n = 27). QSPR internal cross-validation had Q² = 0.94 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.09 moles TCM per mole compound, consistent with external validation Q2 of 0.94 and RMSE of 0.08 moles TCM per mole compound, and met criteria for high predictive power and robustness. In contrast, log TCM QSPR performed poorly and did not meet the criteria for predictive power. The QSPR predictions were consistent with experimental values for TCM formation from tannic acid and for model fulvic acid structures. The descriptors used are consistent with a relatively small number of important TCM precursor structures based upon 1,3-dicarbonyls or 1,3-diphenols.

  20. Predicting consumer preferences for mineral composition of bottled and tap water.

    PubMed

    Platikanov, Stefan; Hernández, Alejandra; González, Susana; Luis Cortina, Jose; Tauler, Roma; Devesa, Ricard

    2017-01-01

    The overall liking for taste of water was correlated with the mineral composition of selected bottled and tap waters. Sixty-nine untrained volunteers assessed and rated twenty-five different commercial bottled and tap waters from. Water samples were physicochemical characterised by analysing conductivity, pH, total dissolved solids (TDS) and major anions and cations: HCO3(-), SO4(2-), Cl(-), NO3(-), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), and K(+). Residual chlorine levels were also analysed in the tap water samples. Globally, volunteers preferred waters rich in calcium bicarbonate and sulfate, rather than in sodium chloride. This study also demonstrated that it was possible to accurately predict the overall liking by a Partial Least Squares regression using either all measured physicochemical parameters or a reduced number of them. These results were in agreement with previously published results using trained panellists.

  1. Ground-water level data for North Carolina, 1987

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coble, Ronald W.; Strickland, A.G.; Bailey, M. Carl

    1989-01-01

    Continuous and periodic measurements in 54 key wells and water-level measurements emplaced in Coastal Plain aquifers across North Carolina in 193 supplemental wells are presented in this report. Hydrographs of selected wells show changes in ground-water storage in the State. The water table in the shallow aquifers was higher throughout most of the State in 1987 than in 1986, indicating that rain had recharged these aquifers sufficiently to replenish the deficit in ground water storage that accumulated in the western and central parts of the State during 1986. Water levels in the heavily pumped Coastal Plain aquifers show a general downward trend for the year, indicating ground water is being withdrawn from aquifer storage. Record low water levels were measured in 4 of 13 wells in the Castle Hayne aquifer; the greatest decline measured during 1987 was 0.3 ft. Water levels in wells in the Peedee, Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers generally show downward trends. Record low water levels were measured in 4 of 8 wells in the Peedee aquifer; the maximum decline measured during 1987 was 1.5 ft. All wells in the Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers had record low water levels for 1987, with maximum measured declines in 1987 of 8.6, 3.1, and 3.1 ft., respectively. Record high water levels were measured in two wells, one each in the Castle Hayne and Peedee aquifers. Potentiometric surface maps show the effects of major centers of pumping for the Castle Hayne, Black Creek, and lower Cape Fear aquifers of the Coastal Plain.

  2. Pragmatic hydraulic theory predicts stomatal responses to climatic water deficits.

    PubMed

    Sperry, John S; Wang, Yujie; Wolfe, Brett T; Mackay, D Scott; Anderegg, William R L; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T

    2016-11-01

    Ecosystem models have difficulty predicting plant drought responses, partially from uncertainty in the stomatal response to water deficits in soil and atmosphere. We evaluate a 'supply-demand' theory for water-limited stomatal behavior that avoids the typical scaffold of empirical response functions. The premise is that canopy water demand is regulated in proportion to threat to supply posed by xylem cavitation and soil drying. The theory was implemented in a trait-based soil-plant-atmosphere model. The model predicted canopy transpiration (E), canopy diffusive conductance (G), and canopy xylem pressure (Pcanopy ) from soil water potential (Psoil ) and vapor pressure deficit (D). Modeled responses to D and Psoil were consistent with empirical response functions, but controlling parameters were hydraulic traits rather than coefficients. Maximum hydraulic and diffusive conductances and vulnerability to loss in hydraulic conductance dictated stomatal sensitivity and hence the iso- to anisohydric spectrum of regulation. The model matched wide fluctuations in G and Pcanopy across nine data sets from seasonally dry tropical forest and piñon-juniper woodland with < 26% mean error. Promising initial performance suggests the theory could be useful in improving ecosystem models. Better understanding of the variation in hydraulic properties along the root-stem-leaf continuum will simplify parameterization.

  3. Water Level Detection in Silty Materials Using Ground Penetrating Radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halabe, Udaya B.; Siriwardane, Hema J.; Pyakurel, Sandeep; Kiriakidis, Ricardo; Ingram, Ronald

    2007-03-01

    Detection of water level in silty soils can be complicated because of capillary action. In this study, the water level in a silty soil sample was detected using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) technique in the laboratory. The soil sample has dimensions of 62 cm × 48 cm × 46 cm and was kept in a clear Plexiglas container which facilitated water level measurements. Two ground-coupled antennas with frequencies of 900 MHz and 1,500 MHz were used in this study. The soil sample was dry at the beginning of the experiment. The water level in the soil sample was raised to a pre-determined level and radar readings were taken at different times over 24 hours. The moisture content in the soil sample above the water level increased with time due to capillary action. At the end of the experiment, the variation of moisture content with depth of the sample was experimentally determined. The GPR observations were compared with measured water depth in the soil sample. The paper presents the comparison of water level as determined by GPR with the variation of experimentally determined moisture content in the silty soil sample. This study includes an investigation on the effects of capillary action on GPR measurements.

  4. A Review of the Prediction of Squat in Shallow Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millward, A.

    Recent evidence has shown that the effect of a ship moving in shallow water and the resultant squat are not well understood. This paper reviews the general problem of a ship in shallow water and illustrates the corresponding resistance, trim and sinkage at both sub-critical and also at super-critical speeds.The paper then reviews the various methods of predicting the squat of a ship in shallow water in the sub-critical range, which is applicable to most ships. It is suggested that the simple rule-of-thumb methods are, at best, unreliable and the paper gives examples of empirical methods which have been tested against various sets of data and seem to give more representative answers. A summary of the notation used is given at the end of the paper.

  5. First principle prediction of shallow defect level binding energies and deep level nonradiative recombination rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Linwang

    2014-03-01

    Accurate calculation of defect level energies in semiconductors and their carrier capturing rate is an important issue in ab initio prediction of semiconductor properties. In this talk, I will present our result work in ab initio shallow level calculation and deep level caused nonradiative recombination rate calculation. In the shallow acceptor level calculation, a large system up to 64,000 atoms needs to be used to properly describe the weakly bounded hole wave functions. The single particle Hamiltonian of that system is patched from bulk potential and central potential. Furthermore, GW calculation is used to correct the one site potential of the impurity atom. The resulting binding energy agrees excellently with the experiments within 10 meV. To calculate the nonradiative decay rate, the electron-phonon coupling constants in the defect system are calculated all at once using a new variational algorithm. Multiphonon process formalism is used to calculate the nonradiative decay rate. It is found that the transition is induced by the electron and the optical phonon coupling, but the energy conservation is mostly satisfied by the acoustic phonons. The new algorithm allows fast calculation of such nonradiative decay rate for any defect levels, as well as other multiphonon processes in nanostructures. This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Science (BES)/Materials Science and Engineering Division (MSED) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

  6. The ground-water-level monitoring network in Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lambert, R.B.

    1992-01-01

    The objectives of the ground-water-level monitoring network in Iowa are to provide the data needed to: (1) determine the change in aquifer storage, (2) document the effects of climatic stress and human activities on discharge and recharge to the principal aquifers, (3) quantify the physical characteristics of ground-water flow including the transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, and specific capacity of aquifers; and (4) provide historical baseline data for future research. The design of the ground-water-level monitoring network in Iowa that satisfies these objectives includes three types of data: (1) hydrologic data, (2) water-management data for use by State and local officials, and (3) baseline data.

  7. Evaluating a microbial water quality prediction model for beach management under the revised EU Bathing Water Directive.

    PubMed

    Bedri, Zeinab; Corkery, Aisling; O'Sullivan, John J; Deering, Louise A; Demeter, Katalin; Meijer, Wim G; O'Hare, Gregory; Masterson, Bartholomew

    2016-02-01

    The revised Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC) requires EU member states to minimise the risk to public health from faecal pollution at bathing waters through improved monitoring and management approaches. While increasingly sophisticated measurement methods (such as microbial source tracking) assist in the management of bathing water resources, the use of deterministic predictive models for this purpose, while having the potential to provide decision making support, remains less common. This study explores an integrated, deterministic catchment-coastal hydro-environmental model as a decision-making tool for beach management which, based on advance predictions of bathing water quality, can inform beach managers on appropriate management actions (to prohibit bathing or advise the public not to bathe) in the event of a poor water quality forecast. The model provides a 'moving window' five-day forecast of Escherichia coli levels at a bathing water compliance point off the Irish coast and the accuracy of bathing water management decisions were investigated for model predictions under two scenarios over the period from the 11th August to the 5th September, 2012. Decisions for Scenario 1 were based on model predictions where rainfall forecasts from a meteorological source (www.yr.no) were used to drive the rainfall-runoff processes in the catchment component of the model, and for Scenario 2, were based on predictions that were improved by incorporating real-time rainfall data from a sensor network within the catchment into the forecasted meteorological input data. The accuracy of the model in the decision-making process was assessed using the contingency table and its metrics. The predictive model gave reasonable outputs to support appropriate decision making for public health protection. Scenario 1 provided real-time predictions that, on 77% of instances during the study period where both predicted and E. coli concentrations were available, would correctly inform a

  8. Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1976 through 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennedy, H.I.; Oberender, C.B.

    1987-01-01

    Groundwater levels are measured periodically in a network of 84 observation wells in Wyoming, mostly in areas where groundwater is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. The program is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and the Wyoming Economic Development and Stabilization Board. This report contains hydrographs for 84 observation wells showing water-level fluctuations from 1976 through 1985. Also included in the report are maps showing locations of observation wells and tables listing well depths, use of water, geologic source, records available, and highest and lowest water levels for the period of record. (USGS)

  9. Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1978 through September 1987

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennedy, H.I.; Green, S.L.

    1988-01-01

    Groundwater levels are measured periodically in a network of 95 observation wells in Wyoming, mostly in areas where groundwater is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. The program is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and the Wyoming Economic Development and Stabilization Board. This report contains hydrographs for 95 observation wells showing water level fluctuations from 1978 through September 1987. Also included in the report are maps showing locations of observation wells and tables listing well depths, use of water, geologic source, records available, and highest and lowest water levels for the period of record. (USGS)

  10. Link prediction in the network of global virtual water trade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Through the international food-trade, water resources are 'virtually' transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. The international food-trade, thus, implies a network of virtual water flows from exporting to importing countries (i.e., nodes). Given the dynamical behavior of the network, where food-trade relations (i.e., links) are created and dismissed every year, link prediction becomes a challenge. In this study, we propose a novel methodology for link prediction in the virtual water network. The model aims at identifying the main factors (among 17 different variables) driving the creation of a food-trade relation between any two countries, along the period between 1986 and 2011. Furthermore, the model can be exploited to investigate the network configuration in the future, under different possible (climatic and demographic) scenarios. The model grounds the existence of a link between any two nodes on the link weight (i.e., the virtual water flow): a link exists when the nodes exchange a minimum (fixed) volume of virtual water. Starting from a set of potential links between any two nodes, we fit the associated virtual water flows (both the real and the null ones) by means of multivariate linear regressions. Then, links with estimated flows higher than a minimum value (i.e., threshold) are considered active-links, while the others are non-active ones. The discrimination between active and non-active links through the threshold introduces an error (called link-prediction error) because some real links are lost (i.e., missed links) and some non-existing links (i.e., spurious links) are inevitably introduced in the network. The major drivers are those significantly minimizing the link-prediction error. Once the structure of the unweighted virtual water network is known, we apply, again, linear regressions to assess the major factors driving the fluxes traded along (modelled) active-links. Results indicate that, on the one hand

  11. A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system for water resource management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, L.; Wood, E. F.

    2006-12-01

    A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system, developed for the Ohio River basin, has been improved and expanded to several other regions including the Eastern U.S., Africa and East Asia. The prediction system adopts the traditional Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach, utilizing the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model as the central tool for producing ensemble prediction of soil moisture, snow and streamflow with lead times up to 6-month. VIC is forced by observed meteorology to estimate the hydrological initial condition prior to the forecast, but during the forecast period the atmospheric forcing comes from statistically downscaled, seasonal forecast from dynamic climate models. The seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system is currently producing realtime seasonal hydrologic forecast for these regions on a monthly basis. Using hindcasts from a 19-year period (1981-1999), during which seasonal hindcasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and European Union DEMETER project are available, we evaluate the performance of the forecast system over our forecast regions. The evaluation shows that the prediction system using the current forecast approach is able to produce reliable and accurate precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow predictions. The overall skill is much higher then the traditional ESP. In particular, forecasts based on multiple climate model forecast are more skillful than single model-based forecast. This emphasizes the significant need for producing seasonal climate forecast with multiple climate models for hydrologic applications. Forecast from this system is expected to provide very valuable information about future hydrologic states and associated risks for end users, including water resource management and financial sectors.

  12. Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: making water supply levels transparent to water users

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens; Vuren Saskia, Van; der Vat Marnix, Van

    2016-04-01

    To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, assessed the impact of climate change and socio-economic development, and explored strategies to deal with these impacts. The Programme initiated a joint approach to water supply management with stakeholders and developed a national adaptation plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions. The adaptation plan consists of a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of possible actions and measures through time - to achieve targets while responding in a flexible manner to uncertain developments over time, allowing room to respond to new opportunities and insights. With regard to fresh water allocation, the Delta Programme stated that supplying water of sufficient quality is a shared responsibility that requires cohesive efforts among users in the main and regional water system. The national and local authorities and water users involved agreed that the water availability and, where relevant, the water quality should be as transparent and predictable as possible under normal, dry and extremely dry conditions. They therefore introduced the concept of "water supply service levels", which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period, for all regions and all relevant water users in the Netherlands. The service levels form an addition to the present policy and should be decided on by 2021. At present water allocation during periods of (expected) water shortage occurs according to a prearranged ranking system (a water hierarchy scheme based on a list of priorities), if water availability drops below a critical low level. The aim is to have supply levels available that are based on the probability of occurrence and economic impact of water shortage, and that are transparent for all water users in the regional water systems and the main water system. As part of the European project

  13. Prediction of the safety level to an installation of the tritium process through predictive maintenance

    SciTech Connect

    Anghel, V.

    2008-07-15

    The safety level for personnel and environment to a nuclear installation is given in generally by the technological process quality of operation and maintenance and in particular by a lot of technical, technological, economic and human factors. The maintenance role is fundamental because it has to quantify all the technical, economic and human elements as an integrated system for it creates an important feedback for activities concerning the life cycle of the nuclear installation. In maintenance activities as in any dynamic area, new elements appear continuously which, sometimes require new approaches. The theory of fuzzy logic and the software LabVIEW supplied to the Nuclear Detritiation Plant (NDP) is part of National Research and Development Inst. for Cryogenics and Isotopic Technologies-ICIT, Rm.Valcea, used for predictive maintenance to assure safety operation. The final aim is to achieve the best practices for maintenance of the Plant that processes tritium. (authors)

  14. Predicting relative permeability from water retention: A direct approach based on fractal geometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cihan, Abdullah; Tyner, John S.; Perfect, Edmund

    2009-04-01

    Commonly, a soil's relative permeability curve is predicted from its measured water retention curve by fitting equations that share parameters between the two curves (e.g., Brooks/Corey-Mualem and van Genuchten-Mualem). We present a new approach to predict relative permeability by direct application of measured soil water retention data without any fitting procedures. The new relative permeability model, derived from a probabilistic fractal approach, appears in series form as a function of suction and the incremental change in water content. This discrete approach describes the drained pore space and permeability at different suctions incorporating the effects of both pore size distribution and connectivity among water-filled pores. We compared the new model performance predicting relative permeability to that of the van Genuchten-Mualem (VG-M) model for 35 paired data sets from the Unsaturated Soil hydraulic Database (UNSODA) and five other previously published data sets. At the 5% level of significance, the new method predicts relative permeabilities from the UNSODA database significantly better (mean logarithmic root-mean-square error, LRMSE = 0.813) than the VG-M model (LRMSE = 1.555). Each prediction of relative permeability from the five other previously published data sets was also significantly better.

  15. Fun with Numbers: Alternative Models for Predicting Salary Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Catherine B.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    The increasing concern with equity issues in higher education, along with litigation, has prompted institutions to undertake salary prediction studies. Four models were compared: (1) entering all variables, (2) excluding rank and tenure, (3) using predicted rank and tenure, and (4) using only "objective" variables. (Author/MLW)

  16. Ground-water levels and quality data for Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    1979-01-01

    This report begins a publication format that will present annually both water-level and water-quality data in Georgia. In this format the information is presented in two-page units: the left page includes text which summarizes the information for an area or subject and the right page consists of one or more illustrations. Daily mean water-level fluctuations and trends are shown in hydrographs for the previous year and fluctuations for the monthly mean water level the previous 10 years for selected observation wells. The well data best illustrate the effects of changes in recharge and discharge in the various ground-water reservoirs in the State. A short narrative explains fluctuations and trends in each hydrograph. (Woodard-USGS)

  17. Interpretation of oscillatory water levels in observation wells during aquifer tests in fractured rock

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shapiro, A.M.

    1989-01-01

    Oscillatory water levels are predicted by the equations coupling the fluid movement in the observation well and the fluid movement in the surrounding formation. The equivalent-porous medium and dual-porosity models of fractured rock are two models considered in this analysis; however, other conceptual models of fractured media can also be coupled with the model presented here for fluid movement in the observation well. Type curves for the response of water levels in observation wells due to pumping in another well are generated by numerical inversion of the Laplace transform solution to the governing equations. Overdamped conditions, where inertial effects are insignificant, and underdamped conditions, where oscillations arise, are predicted by the solution to the governing equations. By matching water level measurements with the appropriate type curve, a conceptual model of the formation can be identified, and aquifer properties can be estimated. -from Author

  18. Predictive control of water distribution in the Dutch National Hydrological Instrument (NHI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talsma, J.; Patzke, S.; Becker, B. P. J.; Schwanenberg, D.; Jansen, M.

    2012-04-01

    In the Netherlands, water is extracted from rivers, lakes and canals for drinking water supply as well as industrial, agricultural and environmental water demands. These water extractions must be managed in such a way that constraints such as water quality, safety and minimum water levels for navigation are maintained as long as possible. The National Hydrological Instrument (NHI) has been developed for modeling the water distribution in the Netherlands and supporting the development of water management strategies. It is also integrated into the national Dutch forecasting system for predicting dry periods and their impacts on water supply, agriculture, aquatic ecosystems and navigation. With such setup, the NHI will be a fundamental tool for drought forecast in the Netherlands. The NHI consists of a groundwater model (MODFLOW), an unsaturated zone model (Metaswap) and surface water models which interact with each other in every time step via an OpenMI interface. The surface water models consist of a hydrological model MOZART for representing the regional catchments and computing a desired water demand, a SOBEK open channel flow model for flow routing in the network of the larger rivers, lakes and canals, and a real-time control component (RTC-Tools). The latter links the water demand generated by MOZART to the availably supply in the network for generating optimum water allocation policies within the prediction horizon of 10 days of the operational forecasting system. The approach relies on predictive control consisting of a simplified internal model of the network within a system-wide optimization algorithm. In a period of water shortages, the user can refine the water allocation by defining specific objectives and related priorities. Finally, the optimum water extractions from RTC-Tools are passed back to MOZART and SOBEK as allocated values. The RTC-Tools integration into the NHI is an ongoing activity. We present the new functionality based on a pilot system

  19. Relationships among gender, cognitive style, academic major, and performance on the Piaget water-level task.

    PubMed

    Hammer, R E; Hoffer, N; King, W L

    1995-06-01

    Many researchers have found that more college-age adults than would be expected fail Piaget's water-level task, with women failing more frequently than men. It has been hypothesized that differences in cognitive style may account for performance differences on the water-level task. In the present study, 27 male and 27 female architectural students and 27 male and 27 female liberal-arts students were assessed for their performance on both Piaget's Water-level Task and Witkin's Group Embedded Figures Test. No difference was found in performance of male and female architectural students on either task, but male liberal-arts students scored significantly higher than female liberal-arts students on both measures. A disembedding cognitive style predicted success on the water-level task for the architectural students but not for the liberal arts students.

  20. Effects of Barometric Fluctuations on Well Water-Level Measurements and Aquifer Test Data

    SciTech Connect

    FA Spane, Jr.

    1999-12-16

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, as part of the Hanford Groundwater Monitoring Project, examines the potential for offsite migration of contamination within underlying aquifer systems. Well water-level elevation measurements from selected wells within these aquifer systems commonly form the basis for delineating groundwater-flow patterns (i.e., flow direction and hydraulic gradient). In addition, the analysis of water-level responses obtained in wells during hydrologic tests provides estimates of hydraulic properties that are important for evaluating groundwater-flow velocity and transport characteristics. Barometric pressure fluctuations, however, can have a discernible impact on well water-level measurements. These barometric effects may lead to erroneous indications of hydraulic head within the aquifer. Total hydraulic head (i.e., sum of the water-table elevation and the atmospheric pressure at the water-table surface) within the aquifer, not well water-level elevation, is the hydrologic parameter for determining groundwater-flow direction and hydraulic gradient conditions. Temporal variations in barometric pressure may also adversely affect well water-level responses obtained during hydrologic tests. If significant, adjustments or removal of these barometric effects from the test-response record may be required for quantitative hydraulic property determination. This report examines the effects of barometric fluctuations on well water-level measurements and evaluates adjustment and removal methods for determining areal aquifer head conditions and aquifer test analysis. Two examples of Hanford Site unconfined aquifer tests are examined that demonstrate barometric response analysis and illustrate the predictive/removal capabilities of various methods for well water-level and aquifer total head values. Good predictive/removal characteristics were demonstrated with best corrective results provided by multiple-regression deconvolution methods.

  1. 3. View of Santa Elena, looking from water level (Note: ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    3. View of Santa Elena, looking from water level (Note: The lighthouse of Del Morro is just visible in the background) - Murallas del Viejo San Juan, Baluarte de Santa Elena, San Juan, San Juan Municipio, PR

  2. Water levels of the Ozark aquifer in northern Arkansas, 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schrader, Tony P.

    2015-07-13

    Nine hydrographs were selected as representative of the water-level conditions in their respective counties. Wells in Fulton, Izard, and Newton Counties (station names 20N08W27ABD1, 18N09W15BCB1, and 16N21W34ABC1, respectively) have water levels that are within the usual range of values for their respective counties. Wells in Boone, Marion, and Washington Counties (station names 18N19W19BCC1, 19N15W20ACC1, and 16N32W09ABD1, respectively) have water levels that have recently declined or are declining for the period of record. Wells in Benton, Carroll, and Sharp Counties (station names 19N29W07DAA1, 21N26W17BCC1, and 15N05W06DDD1, respectively) have water levels that have been rising recently.

  3. 1. East side of lower dam shown with water level ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    1. East side of lower dam shown with water level dropped. VIEW WEST - Loleta Recreation Area, Lower Dam, 6 miles Southeast of interesection of State Route 24041 & State Route 66, Loleta, Elk County, PA

  4. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  5. Lake Erie Water Level Study. Appendix C. Coastal Zone.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-07-01

    ACCESION NO 3.RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE Of REPORT &PERIOD COVERED Lake Erie Water Level Study , Appendix C,Fia Coasta...10 N1000 N N N N N N N N N N A2. 57 AD-AIN 586 INTERNATIONAL LAKE ERIE REGULATION STUDY BOARD FIG 13/2 LAKE ERIE WATER LEVEL STUDY . APPENDIX C

  6. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  7. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    PubMed Central

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  8. Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aregawi, Wondwosen A.; Abera, Metadel K.; Fanta, Solomon W.; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

    2014-11-01

    A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus × domestica Borkh. cv. ‘Jonagold’) during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick’s second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell’s rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range ( > 97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical

  9. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Griffith, Simon C.

    2014-01-01

    Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual’s future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival. PMID:25279258

  10. Transient response of Salix cuttings to changing water level regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorla, L.; Signarbieux, C.; Turberg, P.; Buttler, A.; Perona, P.

    2015-03-01

    Sustainable water management requires an understanding of the effects of flow regulation on riparian ecomorphological processes. We investigated the transient response of Salix viminalis by examining the effect of water-level regimes on its above-ground and below-ground biomass. Four sets of Salix cuttings, three juveniles (in the first growing season) and one mature (1 year old), were planted and initially grown under the same water-level regime for 1 month. We imposed three different water-level regime treatments representing natural variability, a seasonal trend with no peaks, and minimal flow (characteristic of hydropower) consisting of a constant water level and natural flood peaks. We measured sap flux, stem water potential, photosynthesis, growth parameters, and final root architecture. The mature cuttings were not affected by water table dynamics, but the juveniles displayed causal relationships between the changing water regime, plant growth, and root distribution during a 2 month transient period. For example, a 50% drop in mean sap flux corresponded with a -1.5 Mpa decrease in leaf water potential during the first day after the water regime was changed. In agreement with published field observations, the cuttings concentrated their roots close to the mean water table of the corresponding treatment, allowing survival under altered conditions and resilience to successive stress events. Juvenile development was strongly impacted by the minimum flow regime, leading to more than 60% reduction of both above-ground and below-ground biomass, with respect to the other treatments. Hence, we suggest avoiding minimum flow regimes where Salix restoration is prioritized.

  11. Predicting recreational water quality advisories: A comparison of statistical methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Carvin, Rebecca B.

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies indicate that fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in beach water are associated with illnesses among people having contact with the water. In order to mitigate public health impacts, many beaches are posted with an advisory when the concentration of FIB exceeds a beach action value. The most commonly used method of measuring FIB concentration takes 18–24 h before returning a result. In order to avoid the 24 h lag, it has become common to ”nowcast” the FIB concentration using statistical regressions on environmental surrogate variables. Most commonly, nowcast models are estimated using ordinary least squares regression, but other regression methods from the statistical and machine learning literature are sometimes used. This study compares 14 regression methods across 7 Wisconsin beaches to identify which consistently produces the most accurate predictions. A random forest model is identified as the most accurate, followed by multiple regression fit using the adaptive LASSO.

  12. Multiscale Model Predicts Tissue-Level Failure From Collagen Fiber-Level Damage

    PubMed Central

    Hadi, Mohammad F.; Sander, Edward A.; Barocas, Victor H.

    2013-01-01

    Excessive tissue-level forces communicated to the microstructure and extracellular matrix of soft tissues can lead to damage and failure through poorly understood physical processes that are multiscale in nature. In this work, we propose a multiscale mechanical model for the failure of collagenous soft tissues that incorporates spatial heterogeneity in the microstructure and links the failure of discrete collagen fibers to the material response of the tissue. The model, which is based on experimental failure data derived from different collagen gel geometries, was able to predict the mechanical response and failure of type I collagen gels, and it demonstrated that a fiber-based rule (at the micrometer scale) for discrete failure can strongly shape the macroscale failure response of the gel (at the millimeter scale). The model may be a useful tool in predicting the macroscale failure conditions for soft tissues and engineered tissue analogs. In addition, the multiscale model provides a framework for the study of failure in complex fiber-based mechanical systems in general. PMID:22938372

  13. Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van der Valk, Arnold; Mushet, David M.

    2016-01-01

    Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

  14. Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further

  15. Origin of elevated water levels encountered in Pahute Mesa emplacement boreholes: Preliminary investigations

    SciTech Connect

    Brikowski, T.; Chapman, J.; Lyles, B.; Hokett, S.

    1993-11-01

    The presence of standing water well above the predicted water table in emplacement boreholes on Pahute Mesa has been a recurring phenomenon at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). If these levels represent naturally perched aquifers, they may indicate a radionuclide migration hazard. In any case, they can pose engineering problems in the performance of underground nuclear tests. The origin of these elevated waters is uncertain. Large volumes of water are introduced during emplacement drilling, providing ample source for artificially perched water, yet elevated water levels can remain constant for years, suggesting a natural origin instead. In an effort to address the issue of unexpected standing water in emplacement boreholes, three different sites were investigated in Area 19 on Pahute Mesa by Desert Research Institute (DRI) staff from 1990-93. These sites were U-19az, U-19ba, and U-19bh. As of this writing, U-19bh remains available for access; however, nuclear tests were conducted at the former two locations subsequent to this investigations. The experiments are discussed in chronological order. Taken together, the experiments indicate that standing water in Pahute Mesa emplacement holes originates from the drainage of small-volume naturally perched zones. In the final study, the fluids used during drilling of the bottom 100 m of emplacement borehole U-19bh were labeled with a chemical tracer. After hole completion, water level rose in the borehole, while tracer concentration decreased. In fact, total mass of tracer in the borehole remained constant, while water levels rose. After water levels stabilized in this hole, no change in tracer mass was observed over two years, indicating that no movement of water out of the borehole is taking place (as at U- 19ba). Continued labeling tests of standing water are recommended to confirm the conclusions made here, and to establish their validity throughout Pahute Mesa.

  16. Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2013-01-01

    that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and

  17. Water levels in bedrock aquifers in South Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradford, Wendell L.

    1981-01-01

    This report on water levels in bedrock aquifers in South Dakota is the result of a continuing investigation begun in 1959 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Water and Natural Resources. The purpose of the investigation is to collect data on the artesian water supply in the bedrock aquifers and to present these data in data reports that will aid in planning the use and conservation of water from these aquifers in South Dakota. The locations of wells were data have been collected are included. (USGS)

  18. High resolution measurement of water levels in optical components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murrieta-Rico, Fabian N.; Petranovskii, Vitalii; Sergiyenko, Oleg; Hernandez-Balbuena, Daniel; Raymond-Herrera, Oscar

    2016-09-01

    Systems for optical analysis use vacuum chambers, where low pressures are reached. Remaining water molecules are the prevalent contaminant in high vacuum chambers. For this reason measurement of water levels is an important task that allows correct equipment operation. In this work, a different approach is presented for detecting and quantifying the water molecules inside a the vacuum chamber used in optical systems. A zeolite coated quartz crystal microbalance is used for detecting the water molecules, and the change in the resonance frequency is measured using a novel technique known as the principle of rational approximations. Theoretical results show how nanograms of adsorbed molecules are measured, and the number of molecules are quantified.

  19. Striatal Volume Predicts Level of Video Game Skill Acquisition

    PubMed Central

    Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B.; Prakash, Ruchika S.; Voss, Michelle W.; Simons, Daniel J.; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F.

    2010-01-01

    Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks. PMID:20089946

  20. Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

    2010-11-01

    Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks.

  1. Predicting team output using indices at group level.

    PubMed

    Andrés, Amara; Salafranca, Lluís; Solanas, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    The present study explores the usefulness of dyadic quantification of group characteristics to predict team work performance. After reviewing the literature regarding team member characteristics predicting group performance, percentages of explained variance between 3% and 18% were found. These studies have followed an individualistic approach to measure group characteristics (e. g., mean and variance), based on aggregation. The aim of the present work was testing whether by means of dyadic measures group output prediction percentage could be increased. The basis of dyadic measures is data obtained from an interdependent pairs of individuals. Specifically, the present research was intended to develop a new dyadic index to measure personality dissimilarity in groups and to explore whether dyadic measurements allow improving groups' outcome predictions compared to individualistic methods. By means of linear regression, 49.5 % of group performance variance was explained using the skew-symmetry and the proposed dissimilarity index in personality as predictors. These results support the usefulness of the dyadic approach for predicting group outcomes.

  2. Impact of Plumbing Age on Copper Levels in Drinking Water

    EPA Science Inventory

    Theory and limited practical experiences suggest that higher copper levels in drinking water tap samples are typically associated with newer plumbing systems, and levels decrease with increasing plumbing age. Past researchers have developed a conceptual model to explain the “agin...

  3. Prediction of pore-water pressure response to rainfall using support vector regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babangida, Nuraddeen Muhammad; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Yusuf, Khamaruzaman Wan; Isa, Mohamed Hasnain

    2016-11-01

    Nonlinear complex behavior of pore-water pressure responses to rainfall was modelled using support vector regression (SVR). Pore-water pressure can rise to disturbing levels that may result in slope failure during or after rainfall. Traditionally, monitoring slope pore-water pressure responses to rainfall is tedious and expensive, in that the slope must be instrumented with necessary monitors. Data on rainfall and corresponding responses of pore-water pressure were collected from such a monitoring program at a slope site in Malaysia and used to develop SVR models to predict pore-water pressure fluctuations. Three models, based on their different input configurations, were developed. SVR optimum meta-parameters were obtained using k-fold cross validation and a grid search. Model type 3 was adjudged the best among the models and was used to predict three other points on the slope. For each point, lag intervals of 30 min, 1 h and 2 h were used to make the predictions. The SVR model predictions were compared with predictions made by an artificial neural network model; overall, the SVR model showed slightly better results. Uncertainty quantification analysis was also performed for further model assessment. The uncertainty components were found to be low and tolerable, with d-factor of 0.14 and 74 % of observed data falling within the 95 % confidence bound. The study demonstrated that the SVR model is effective in providing an accurate and quick means of obtaining pore-water pressure response, which may be vital in systems where response information is urgently needed.

  4. RADIOLYTIC HYDROGEN GENERATION INSAVANNAH RIVER SITE (SRS) HIGH LEVEL WASTETANKS COMPARISON OF SRS AND HANFORDMODELING PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Crawford, C; Ned Bibler, N

    2009-04-15

    In the high level waste tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS), hydrogen is produced continuously by interaction of the radiation in the tank with water in the waste. Consequently, the vapor spaces of the tanks are purged to prevent the accumulation of H{sub 2} and possible formation of a flammable mixture in a tank. Personnel at SRS have developed an empirical model to predict the rate of H{sub 2} formation in a tank. The basis of this model is the prediction of the G value for H{sub 2} production. This G value is the number of H{sub 2} molecules produced per 100 eV of radiolytic energy absorbed by the waste. Based on experimental studies it was found that the G value for H{sub 2} production from beta radiation and from gamma radiation were essentially equal. The G value for H{sub 2} production from alpha radiation was somewhat higher. Thus, the model has two equations, one for beta/gamma radiation and one for alpha radiation. Experimental studies have also indicated that both G values are decreased by the presence of nitrate and nitrite ions in the waste. These are the main scavengers for the precursors of H{sub 2} in the waste; thus the equations that were developed predict G values for hydrogen production as a function of the concentrations of these two ions in waste. Knowing the beta/gamma and alpha heat loads in the waste allows one to predict the total generation rate for hydrogen in a tank. With this prediction a ventilation rate can be established for each tank to ensure that a flammable mixture is not formed in the vapor space in a tank. Recently personnel at Hanford have developed a slightly different model for predicting hydrogen G values. Their model includes the same precursor for H{sub 2} as the SRS model but also includes an additional precursor not in the SRS model. Including the second precursor for H{sub 2} leads to different empirical equations for predicting the G values for H{sub 2} as a function of the nitrate and nitrite concentrations in

  5. Data assimilation in optimizing and integrating soil and water quality water model predictions at different scales

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Relevant data about subsurface water flow and solute transport at relatively large scales that are of interest to the public are inherently laborious and in most cases simply impossible to obtain. Upscaling in which fine-scale models and data are used to predict changes at the coarser scales is the...

  6. Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aretxabaleta, Alfredo; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Butman, Bradford; Signell, Richard

    2017-01-01

    A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase (∼0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings.

  7. Water-level monitoring in the area of the Palmdale Uplift, Southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lamar, D.L.; Merifield, P.M.

    1978-01-01

    Abnormal behavior of water levels in wells has been observed prior to a number of earthquakes. For instance, water-level minima have been noted in the Cienega Winery well before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. Abnormal water-level fluctuations were used in conjunctions with other precursors to predict the February 4, 1975, Haicheng earthquake in northeastern China. That such changes should occur prior to earthquakes is not surprising. Ground water that occupies the void spaces in porous rocks or alluvium can be expected to rise in wells when an aquifer is squeezed and fall when it is distended. COnfined aquifers, in particualr, have been found to be highly sensitive to Earth strain changes. 

  8. Prediction of functional residues in water channels and related proteins.

    PubMed Central

    Froger, A.; Tallur, B.; Thomas, D.; Delamarche, C.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, we present an updated classification of the ubiquitous MIP (Major Intrinsic Protein) family proteins, including 153 fully or partially sequenced members available in public databases. Presently, about 30 of these proteins have been functionally characterized, exhibiting essentially two distinct types of channel properties: (1) specific water transport by the aquaporins, and (2) small neutral solutes transport, such as glycerol by the glycerol facilitators. Sequence alignments were used to predict amino acids and motifs discriminant in channel specificity. The protein sequences were also analyzed using statistical tools (comparisons of means and correspondence analysis). Five key positions were clearly identified where the residues are specific for each functional subgroup and exhibit high dissimilar physico-chemical properties. Moreover, we have found that the putative channels for small neutral solutes clearly differ from the aquaporins by the amino acid content and the length of predicted loop regions, suggesting a substrate filter function for these loops. From these results, we propose a signature pattern for water transport. PMID:9655351

  9. Analysis for water level data for Everglades National Park, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buchanan, T.J.; Hartwell, J.H.

    1972-01-01

    Stage-duration curves were developed for five gaging stations in Everglades National Park, Florida. Four of the five curves show similar characteristics with an increase in the slope when the water level is below land surface. Monthly stage-duration curves, developed for one of the stations, reflect the seasonal trends of the water level. Recession curves were prepared for the same five stations. These curves represent the average water-level decline during periods of little or no rainfall. They show the decline in level at the end of 10, 20, and 60 days for any given initial stage. A family of curves was also prepared to give the recession from various initial stages for any period up to 60 days.

  10. Effects of Grade Level and Subject on Student Test Score Predictions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnett, Jerrold E.; Hixon, Jon E.

    1997-01-01

    Interviews with elementary students before and after tests in three subjects investigated how grade level and subject affected students' ability to predict test scores. Results found a significant grade-subject area interaction for predictions prior to testing. Posttest predictions differed only slightly from pretest. Prediction accuracy was…

  11. Predicting Change in Eelgrass Distribution Due to Sea Level Rise

    EPA Science Inventory

    The eelgrass species Zostera marina is the dominant estuarine seagrass on the Pacific Northwest coast of North America and provides important ecosystem services and functions. The loss of eelgrass bed acreage due to environmental pressures is of world-wide concern, yet predicted ...

  12. Low level range coverage performance prediction for VHF radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuschel, H.

    1989-09-01

    A VHF radar frequencies the range coverage is not strictly limited by the quasi-optical horizon like at microwave radar frequencies but is extended due to diffraction propagation. This effect, here called beyond-the-horizon (BTH) detection capability is strongly dependent on the propagation path and thus on the terrain structure. The availability of digital terrain maps gives way to the use of computerized methods for the prediction of radar range coverage in real environment. In combination with wave propagation models suitable for diffraction at terrain structures, digital terrain data can even be used for the prediction of BTH target detectability at VHF radar. Here the digital landmass system (DLSS) terrain database was used in combination with a multiple-knife-edge diffraction model to predict the diffraction attenuation between the radar and the potential target positions, especially beyond the optical horizon. The propagation paths extracted from the database are modeled as a sequence of diffraction screens suited for the application of a Fresnel-Kirchhoff algorithm yielding the knife-edge-diffraction attenuation. This terrain related propagation model was verified by a large number of measurements at different frequencies. Implemented in a fast computer system, this prediction model can be used for mission planning of air operations. Considering hostile VHF radar coverage and terrain condition for flight path optimization or, on the other hand it can assist in siting mobile radars for gap filling according to the actual threat situation. Calculations of the diffraction propagation using the prediction model, yield range coverage patterns in real terrain situations, allowing to quantify the BTH detection advantage of VHF radar compared to microwave radar. An experimental large wavelength radar LARA (VHF) built flying targets beyond the close horizon. Here, especially the detection of hiding helicopters by exploiting diffractive wave propagation was examined

  13. PLIO: a generic tool for real-time operational predictive optimal control of water networks.

    PubMed

    Cembrano, G; Quevedo, J; Puig, V; Pérez, R; Figueras, J; Verdejo, J M; Escaler, I; Ramón, G; Barnet, G; Rodríguez, P; Casas, M

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a generic tool, named PLIO, that allows to implement the real-time operational control of water networks. Control strategies are generated using predictive optimal control techniques. This tool allows the flow management in a large water supply and distribution system including reservoirs, open-flow channels for water transport, water treatment plants, pressurized water pipe networks, tanks, flow/pressure control elements and a telemetry/telecontrol system. Predictive optimal control is used to generate flow control strategies from the sources to the consumer areas to meet future demands with appropriate pressure levels, optimizing operational goals such as network safety volumes and flow control stability. PLIO allows to build the network model graphically and then to automatically generate the model equations used by the predictive optimal controller. Additionally, PLIO can work off-line (in simulation) and on-line (in real-time mode). The case study of Santiago-Chile is presented to exemplify the control results obtained using PLIO off-line (in simulation).

  14. Influence of Reservoir Water Level Fluctuations on Sediment ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Mercury (Hg) is a pollutant of global concern due to its ability to accumulate as methylmercury (MeHg) in biota. Mercury is methylated by anaerobic microorganisms such as sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) in water and sediment. Throughout North America, reservoirs tend to have elevated methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations compared to natural lakes and rivers. This impact is most pronounced in newly created reservoirs where methylation is fueled by the decomposition of flooded organic material, which can release Hg and enhance microbial activity. Much less is known about the longer-term water-level management impacts on Hg cycling in older reservoirs. The objective of our study was to understand the role of on-going water-level fluctuations on sediment MeHg concentrations and sulfur speciation within a reservoir 75 years after initial impoundment. The study was performed at the Cottage Grove Reservoir located 15 km downstream of the historical Black Butte Hg mine. For 8 months each year, the water level is lowered resulting in roughly half of the reservoir’s sediment being exposed to the atmosphere. Water samples from the inflow, water-column, outflow, and sediment were collected seasonally over a year for total-Hg, MeHg, and several ancillary parameters. The results showed that conditions in the reservoir were favorable to methylation with a much higher %MeHg observed in the outflowing water (34%) compared to the inflow (7%) during the late-summer. An

  15. Global Gray Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels Related to Anthropogenic Nitrogen Loads to Fresh Water.

    PubMed

    Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2015-11-03

    This is the first global assessment of nitrogen-related water pollution in river basins with a specification of the pollution by economic sector, and by crop for the agricultural sector. At a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 arc minute, we estimate anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loads to freshwater, calculate the resultant gray water footprints (GWFs), and relate the GWFs per river basin to runoff to calculate the N-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment. The accumulated global GWF related to anthropogenic N loads in the period 2002-2010 was 13×10(12) m3/y. China contributed about 45% to the global total. Three quarters of the GWF related to N loads came from diffuse sources (agriculture), 23% from domestic point sources and 2% from industrial point sources. Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the N-related GWF (18%), followed by vegetables (15%) and oil crops (11%). The river basins with WPL>1 (where the N load exceeds the basin's assimilation capacity), cover about 17% of the global land area, contribute about 9% of the global river discharge, and provide residence to 48% of the global population.

  16. Water-level changes in the high plains regional aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma, predevelopment to 1980

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Havens, J.S.

    1983-01-01

    During 1978, the U.S. Geological Survey began a 5-year study of the High Plains regional aquifer system to provide hydrologic information for evaluation of the effects of long-term development of the aquifer and to develop computer models for prediction of aquifer response to alternative changes in ground-water management (Weeks, 1978). This report is one of a series presenting hydrologic information of the High Plains aquifer in Oklahoma. The predevelopment to 1980 water-level changes in the High Plains regional aquifer in Oklahoma are shown for Harper, Ellis, Woodward, Dewey, and Roger Mills Counties, on the east, and for the Oklahoma Panhandle, consist- ing of Cimarron, Texas, and Beaver Counties, on the west. About 1,470 water-level measurements in the Panhandle were used in compiling the predevelopment water-table map (Havens, 1982c). In the remaining area to the east about 150 water-level measurements from the 1950's to the 1970's are representative of predevelopment water levels. For the 1980 water-table map, about 330 measurements were made in the Panhandle and about 350 measurements in the eastern area by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (Havens, 1982b).

  17. Regional and State Level Water Scarcity Report: Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicoletti, C. K.; Lopez-Morales, C. A.; Hoover, J. H.; Voigt, B. G.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Mohammed, I. N.

    2010-12-01

    There are an abundance of large-scale, coarse resolution global water scarcity studies, but the existing literature fails to address regional and state specific scarcity measures. Moreover, while environmental water requirements are an integral factor in the development and implementation of sustainable water management practices, only recently has this notion been introduced to water scarcity research. In this paper, we argue that developing a preliminary measure of water scarcity, at the regional and state levels, will allow for more informed policy development. The goal of this study is to generate a more comprehensive understanding of water scarcity in the Northeast, by gathering fine scale data, applying a consistent methodology to the calculation of a scarcity index, and analyzing the results to see relative trends in spatio-temporal water scarcity. Public supply, irrigation, rural, industrial and thermo-power withdrawals have been compiled from USGS state water use publications from 1950 to 1985. Using the WBMplus water model runoff data, state specific in-stream environmental water requirements were calculated using the accepted hydro-ecological methodology. Water scarcity was then calculated as a ratio of water withdrawals to total available water minus environmental flow requirements for the system. In so doing, this study generates a spatially explicit and temporally varying water scarcity indicator (WSI) for the Northeastern United States between 1950 and 2000 at the regional and state levels at a five-year time interval. Calculation of a spatial and temporal water scarcity indicator enabled us to identify regions and specific states that were: slightly exploited (WSI < 0.3), moderately exploited (0.31.0). The minimum environmental water requirements to maintain in-stream aquatic and riparian ecosystems for the Northeastern states ranged between 27.5 to 36.3 percent of the mean annual

  18. Developing Landscape Level Indicators for Predicting Watershed Condition

    EPA Science Inventory

    Drainage basins (watersheds) exert a strong influence on the condition of water bodies such as streams and lakes. Watersheds and associated aquatic systems respond differently to stressors (e.g., land use change) or restoration activities depending on the climatic setting, bedroc...

  19. Prediction of biodegradability of aromatics in water using QSAR modeling.

    PubMed

    Cvetnic, Matija; Juretic Perisic, Daria; Kovacic, Marin; Kusic, Hrvoje; Dermadi, Jasna; Horvat, Sanja; Bolanca, Tomislav; Marin, Vedrana; Karamanis, Panaghiotis; Loncaric Bozic, Ana

    2017-05-01

    The study was aimed at developing models for predicting the biodegradability of aromatic water pollutants. For that purpose, 36 single-benzene ring compounds, with different type, number and position of substituents, were used. The biodegradability was estimated according to the ratio of the biochemical (BOD5) and chemical (COD) oxygen demand values determined for parent compounds ((BOD5/COD)0), as well as for their reaction mixtures in half-life achieved by UV-C/H2O2 process ((BOD5/COD)t1/2). The models correlating biodegradability and molecular structure characteristics of studied pollutants were derived using quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) principles and tools. Upon derivation of the models and calibration on the training and subsequent testing on the test set, 3- and 5-variable models were selected as the most predictive for (BOD5/COD)0 and (BOD5/COD)t1/2, respectively, according to the values of statistical parameters R(2) and Q(2). Hence, 3-variable model predicting (BOD5/COD)0 possessed R(2)=0.863 and Q(2)=0.799 for training set, and R(2)=0.710 for test set, while 5-variable model predicting (BOD5/COD)1/2 possessed R(2)=0.886 and Q(2)=0.788 for training set, and R(2)=0.564 for test set. The selected models are interpretable and transparent, reflecting key structural features that influence targeted biodegradability and can be correlated with the degradation mechanisms of studied compounds by UV-C/H2O2.

  20. Subsidence at the Fairport Harbor Water Level Gauge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conner, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    SUBSIDENCE AT THE FAIRPORT HARBOR WATER LEVEL GAUGE I will provide information on methods being used to monitor Lake Erie water levels and earth movement at Fairport Harbor, Ohio. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is responsible for vertical movement throughout the Great Lakes region. Fairport Harbor is also experiencing vertical movement due to salt mining, so the nearby water level gauge operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is affected by both GIA and mining. NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (NGS) defines and maintains the National Spatial Reference System (NSRS). The NSRS includes a network of permanently marked points; a consistent, accurate, and up-to-date national shoreline; a network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) which supports three-dimensional positioning activities; and a set of accurate models describing dynamic, geophysical processes that affect spatial measurements. The NSRS provides the spatial reference foundation for transportation, mapping, charting and a multitude of scientific and engineering applications. Fundamental elements of geodetic infrastructure include GPS CORS (3-D), water level and tide gauges (height) and a system of vertical bench marks (height). When two or more of these elements converge they may provide an independent determination of position and vertical stability as is the case here at the Fairport Harbor water level gauge. Analysis of GPS, leveling and water level data reveal that this gauge is subsiding at about 2-3 mm/year, independent of the effects of GIA. Analysis of data from the nearby OHLA GPS CORS shows it subsiding at about 4 mm/yr, four times faster than expected due to GIA alone. A long history of salt mine activity in the area is known to geologists but it came as a surprise to other scientists.

  1. Predicting FCAT Reading Scores Using the Reading-Level Indicator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Nile; Stanley, Laurel

    2011-01-01

    Multiple regression analysis indicates that the Reading-Level Indicator, a paper-and-pencil test, is a moderately strong predictor for the high-stakes standardized test, the Florida Comprehensive Achievement Test in Reading. Classroom teachers can administer the inexpensive Reading-Level Indicator in a short period of time and use the results as a…

  2. A multivariate linear regression model for predicting children's blood lead levels based on soil lead levels: A study at four superfund sites.

    PubMed

    Lewin, M D; Sarasua, S; Jones, P A

    1999-07-01

    For the purpose of examining the association between blood lead levels and household-specific soil lead levels, we used a multivariate linear regression model to find a slope factor relating soil lead levels to blood lead levels. We used previously collected data from the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) multisite lead and cadmium study. The data included the blood lead measurements (0.5 to 40.2 microg/dL) of 1015 children aged 6-71 months, and corresponding household-specific environmental samples. The environmental samples included lead in soil (18.1-9980 mg/kg), house dust (5.2-71,000 mg/kg), interior paint (0-16.5 mg/cm2), and tap water (0.3-103 microg/L). After adjusting for income, education of the parents, presence of a smoker in the household, sex, and dust lead, and using a double log transformation, we found a slope factor of 0.1388 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.09-0.19 for the dose-response relationship between the natural log of the soil lead level and the natural log of the blood lead level. The predicted blood lead level corresponding to a soil lead level of 500 mg/kg was 5.99 microg/kg with a 95% prediction interval of 2. 08-17.29. Predicted values and their corresponding prediction intervals varied by covariate level. The model shows that increased soil lead level is associated with elevated blood leads in children, but that predictions based on this regression model are subject to high levels of uncertainty and variability.

  3. A statistical model for water quality predictions from a river discharge using coastal observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Terrill, E. J.

    2007-12-01

    Understanding and predicting coastal ocean water quality has benefits for reducing human health risks, protecting the environment, and improving local economies which depend on clean beaches. Continuous observations of coastal physical oceanography increase the understanding of the processes which control the fate and transport of a riverine plume which potentially contains high levels of contaminants from the upstream watershed. A data-driven model of the fate and transport of river plume water from the Tijuana River has been developed using surface current observations provided by a network of HF radar operated as part of a local coastal observatory that has been in place since 2002. The model outputs are compared with water quality sampling of shoreline indicator bacteria, and the skill of an alarm for low water quality is evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In addition, statistical analysis of beach closures in comparison with environmental variables is also discussed.

  4. Expanded prediction equations of human sweat loss and water needs.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, R R; Cheuvront, S N; Montain, S J; Goodman, D A; Blanchard, L A; Berglund, L G; Sawka, M N

    2009-08-01

    The Institute of Medicine expressed a need for improved sweating rate (msw) prediction models that calculate hourly and daily water needs based on metabolic rate, clothing, and environment. More than 25 years ago, the original Shapiro prediction equation (OSE) was formulated as msw (g.m(-2).h(-1))=27.9.Ereq.(Emax)(-0.455), where Ereq is required evaporative heat loss and Emax is maximum evaporative power of the environment; OSE was developed for a limited set of environments, exposures times, and clothing systems. Recent evidence shows that OSE often overpredicts fluid needs. Our study developed a corrected OSE and a new msw prediction equation by using independent data sets from a wide range of environmental conditions, metabolic rates (rest to 500 observations) by using a variety of metabolic rates over a range of environmental conditions (ambient temperature, 15-46 degrees C; water vapor pressure, 0.27-4.45 kPa; wind speed, 0.4-2.5 m/s), clothing, and equipment combinations and durations (2-8 h). Data are expressed as grams per square meter per hour and were analyzed using fuzzy piecewise regression. OSE overpredicted sweating rates (P<0.003) compared with observed msw. Both the correction equation (OSEC), msw=147.exp (0.0012.OSE), and a new piecewise (PW) equation, msw=147+1.527.Ereq-0.87.Emax were derived, compared with OSE, and then cross-validated against independent data (21 males and 9 females; >200 observations). OSEC and PW were more accurate predictors of sweating rate (58 and 65% more accurate, P<0.01) and produced minimal error (standard error estimate<100 g.m(-2).h(-1)) for conditions both within and outside the original OSE domain of validity. The new equations provide for more accurate sweat predictions over a broader range of conditions with applications to public health, military, occupational, and sports

  5. Predicting Water Activity for Complex Wastes with Solvation Cluster Equilibria (SCE) - 12042

    SciTech Connect

    Agnew, S.F.; Reynolds, J.G.; Johnston, C.T.

    2012-07-01

    Predicting an electrolyte mixture's water activity, i.e. the ratio of water vapor pressure over a solution with that of pure water, in principle reveals both boiling point and solubilities for that mixture. Better predictions of these properties helps support the ongoing missions to concentrate complex nuclear waste mixtures in order to conserve tank space and improved predictions of water activity will help. A new approach for predicting water activity, the solvation cluster equilibria (SCE) model, uses pure electrolyte water activities to predict water activity for a complex mixture of those electrolytes. An SCE function based on electrolyte hydration free energy and a standard Debye- Hueckel (DH) charge compression fits each pure electrolyte's water activity with three parameters. Given these pure electrolyte water activities, the SCE predicts any mixture water activity over a large range of concentration with an additional parameter for each mixture vector, the multinarity. In contrast to ionic strength, which scales with concentration, multinarity is related to the relative proportion of electrolytes in a mixture and can either increase or decrease the water activity prediction over a broad range of concentration for that mixture. The SCE model predicts water activity for complex electrolyte mixtures based on the water activities of pure electrolytes. Three parameter SCE functions fit the water activities of pure electrolytes and along with a single multinarity parameter for each mixture vector then predict the mixture water activity. Predictions of water activity can in principle predict solution electrolyte activity and this relationship will be explored in the future. Predicting electrolyte activities for complex mixtures provides a means of determining solubilities for each electrolyte. Although there are a number of reports [9, 10, 11] of water activity models for pure and binary mixtures of electrolytes, none of them compare measured versus calculated

  6. The analysis of SCS return momentum effects on the RCS water level during mid-loop operations

    SciTech Connect

    swang Seo, J.; Young Yang, J.; Tack Hwang, S.

    1995-09-01

    An accurate prediction of Reactor Coolant System (RCS) water levels is of importance in the determination of allowable operating range to ensure the safety during the mid-loop operations. However, complex hydraulic phenomena induced by Shutdown Cooling System (SCS) return momentum cause different water levels from those in the loop where the water level indicators are located. This was apparantly observed at the pre-core cold hydro test of the Younggwang Nuclear Unit 3 (YGN 3) in Korea. In this study, in order to analytically understand the effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water level and its general trend, a model using one-dimensional momentum equation, hydraulic jump, Bernoulli equation, flow resistance coefficient, and total water volume conservation has been developed to predict the RCS water levels at various RCS locations during the mid-loop conditions and the simulation results were compared with the test data. The analysis shows that the hydraulic jump in the operating cold legs in conjunction with the momentum loss throughout the RCS is the main cause creating the water level differences at various RCS locations. The prediction results provide good explanations for the test data and show the significant effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water levels.

  7. Measuring Water Level Fluctuations of two Connected Wetlands in the Dominican Republic Using InSAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pichardo Marcano, M. D.; Liu, L.; Zebker, H. A.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are ecosystems of high endemism and great biodiversity. Using the double-reflected radar waves off the water surface and trunks of inundated vegetation, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is capable of measuring water level fluctuations from space at a cm-level accuracy in these ecosystems with emergent vegetation. InSAR can provide a high spatial resolution over a large area that the more traditional terrestrial-based methods lack. In this study, we applied InSAR to study the seasonal variations in water level of the wetlands near two lakes in the southwest of the Dominican Republic: Lake Enriquillo, a highly saline lake designated as a Wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention in 2002, and Laguna del Limon. Both lake-wetland systems are located in the Jaragua-Bahoruco-Enriquillo Biosphere Reserve. Since 2003 the water level of Lake Enriquillo has increased drastically and caused the evacuation of many farmers from nearby villages. Lake level changes also affected the habitats of several native and migratory species. We used the data acquired by the Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) sensor on board of the Japanese Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) from October 2008 to January 2011. For the smaller lake, Laguna del Limon, we found a seasonal variation of 10-15 centimeters. This result was confirmed using two different satellite paths. For Lake Enriquillo we found a net decrease of about 20 centimeters in the water level from September 2009 to January 2011. This result agrees with an independent estimation based on lake hydrodynamics model predictions. In addition, our InSAR-based time series of lake level fluctuations revealed distinct behaviors of the two wetlands. For the Lake Enriquillo we found a continuous decrease in the water level throughout 2010 with a brief increase of the water level during the summer months, while for Laguna del Limon during the summer months the water level

  8. Predicted trapped particle radiation levels for Tiros-N

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stassinopoulos, E. G.

    1972-01-01

    Vehicle encountered electron and proton fluxes were calculated for a set of nominal TIROS-N trajectories with new computational methods and new electron environment models. Temporal variations in the electron data were considered and partially accounted for. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for the lifetime of the satellite at selected integral energies from 10 to 100 MeV. Field strength calculations were performed with an extrapolated model on the basis of linear secular variation predictions. Orbital flux integration results are presented in graphical and tabular form.

  9. Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Page, Juliet A.; Hobbs, Christopher M.; Plotkin, Kenneth J.; Stusnick, Eric; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

  10. Orion Crew Member Injury Predictions during Land and Water Landings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Charles; Littell, Justin D.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Tabiei, Ala

    2008-01-01

    A review of astronaut whole body impact tolerance is discussed for land or water landings of the next generation manned space capsule named Orion. LS-DYNA simulations of Orion capsule landings are performed to produce a low, moderate, and high probability of injury. The paper evaluates finite element (FE) seat and occupant simulations for assessing injury risk for the Orion crew and compares these simulations to whole body injury models commonly referred to as the Brinkley criteria. The FE seat and crash dummy models allow for varying the occupant restraint systems, cushion materials, side constraints, flailing of limbs, and detailed seat/occupant interactions to minimize landing injuries to the crew. The FE crash test dummies used in conjunction with the Brinkley criteria provides a useful set of tools for predicting potential crew injuries during vehicle landings.

  11. PREDICTING GROUND-WATER DRAINAGE TO SURFACE MINES.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiss, Linda S.; Galloway, Devin L.; ,

    1984-01-01

    A two-dimensional, finite-difference numerical model is used to simulate the drainage of ground water into a surface coal mine. Graphs of dimensionless head as a function of dimensionless distance, and dimensionless seepage flux as a function of dimensionless time are developed from results of the numerical modeling. Changes in seepage flux and ground-water levels can be estimated from the dimensionless hydrographs, from knowledge of aquifer characteristics prior to mining, and by means of several 'simple-to-use' equations. The technique is an improvement on previous experimental, analytical, and other numerical solutions because drainage from the unsaturated zone also is considered. The procedure is applicable to a wide range of hydrogeologic settings, but is especially applicable to hydrogeologic conditions typically encountered in the coal strip-mining regions of Illinois.

  12. Water-quality and ground-water-level data, Bernalillo County, central New Mexico, 1995

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rankin, D.R.

    1996-01-01

    Water-quality and ground-water-level data were collected in two areas of eastern Bernalillo County in central New Mexico between March and July of 1995. Fifty-one wells, two springs, and the Ojo Grande Acequia in the east mountain area of Bernalillo County and nine wells in the northeast area of the city of Albuquerque were sampled. The water samples were analyzed for selected nutrient species; total organic carbon; major dissolved constituents; dissolved arsenic, boron, iron, and manganese; and methylene blue active substances. Analytical results were used to compute hardness, sodium adsorption ratio, and dissolved solids. Specific conductance, pH, temperature, and alkalinity were measured in the field at the time of sample collection. Ground- water-level and well-depth measurements were made at the time of sample collection when possible. Water-quality data, ground- water-level data, and well-depth data are presented in tabular form.

  13. Predicted Transport Of Pyrethroid Insecticides From An Urban Landscape To Surface Water

    PubMed Central

    Jorgenson, Brant; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Macneale, Kate; Schlenk, Daniel; Scholz, Nat; Spromberg, Julann; Werner, Inge; Weston, Don; Young, Thomas M.; Zhang, Minghua; Zhao, Qingfu

    2014-01-01

    We developed a simple screening-level model of exposure of aquatic species to pyrethroid insecticides for the lower American River watershed (California, USA). The model incorporated both empirically derived washoff functions based on existing, small-scale precipitation simulations and empirical data on pyrethroid insecticide use and watershed properties for Sacramento County, California. We calibrated the model to in-stream monitoring data and used it to predict daily river pyrethroid concentration from 1995 through 2010. The model predicted a marked increase in pyrethroid toxic units starting in 2000, coincident with an observed watershed-wide increase in pyrethroid use. After 2000, approximately 70% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure in the watershed was associated with the pyrethroids bifenthrin and cyfluthrin. Pyrethroid applications for above-ground structural pest control on the basis of suspension concentrate product formulations accounted for greater than 97% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure. Projected application of mitigation strategies, such as curtailment of structural perimeter band and barrier treatments as recently adopted by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation, reduced predicted total toxic unit exposure by 84%. The model also predicted that similar reductions in surface water concentrations of pyrethroids could be achieved through a switch from suspension concentrate categorized products to emulsifiable concentrate categorized products without restrictions on current use practice. Even with these mitigation actions, the predicted concentration of some pyrethroids would continue to exceed chronic aquatic life criteria. PMID:24115122

  14. Effect of Increased Water Vapor Levels on TBC Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Pint, Bruce A; Garner, George Walter; Lowe, Tracie M; Haynes, James A; Zhang, Ying

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the effect of increased water vapor levels on thermal barrier coating (TBC) lifetime, furnace cycle tests were performed at 1150 C in air with 10 vol.% water vapor (similar to natural gas combustion) and 90 vol.%. Either Pt diffusion or Pt-modified aluminide bond coatings were applied to specimens from the same batch of a commercial second-generation single-crystal superalloy and commercial vapor-deposited yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) top coats were applied. Three coatings of each type were furnace cycled to failure to compare the average lifetimes obtained in dry O{sub 2}, using the same superalloy batch and coating types. Average lifetimes with Pt diffusion coatings were unaffected by the addition of water vapor. In contrast, the average lifetime of Pt-modified aluminide coatings was reduced by more than 50% with 10% water vapor but only slightly reduced by 90% water vapor. Based on roughness measurements from similar specimens without a YSZ coating, the addition of 10% water vapor increased the rate of coating roughening more than 90% water vapor. Qualitatively, the amount of {beta}-phase depletion in the coatings exposed in 10% water vapor did not appear to be accelerated.

  15. Size-Resolved Photoelectron Anisotropy of Gas Phase Water Clusters and Predictions for Liquid Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartweg, Sebastian; Yoder, Bruce L.; Garcia, Gustavo A.; Nahon, Laurent; Signorell, Ruth

    2017-03-01

    We report the first measurements of size-resolved photoelectron angular distributions for the valence orbitals of neutral water clusters with up to 20 molecules. A systematic decrease of the photoelectron anisotropy is found for clusters with up to 5-6 molecules, and most remarkably, convergence of the anisotropy for larger clusters. We suggest the latter to be the result of a local short-range scattering potential that is fully described by a unit of 5-6 molecules. The cluster data and a detailed electron scattering model are used to predict the anisotropy of slow photoelectrons in liquid water. Reasonable agreement with experimental liquid jet data is found.

  16. The effects of water levels on Two Lake Ontario Wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Busch, Wolf-Dieter N.; Osborn, Ronald G.; Auble, Gregor T.

    1990-01-01

    Lake Ontario's water levels have been regulated since 1959, after the completion of the St. Lawrence River navigation and hydropower development project. The plan used to guide the regulation (1958-D) has been in effect since 1963 (Bryce, 1982). The purpose of the regulation was to prevent extreme high-water levels which increased erosion on the south shore of Lake Ontario, while protecting the interests of commercial navigation and hydropower production in the St. Lawrence River (T. Brown, personal communication, member of the Board of Control). Major user groups have sought further reductions in the range of lake level fluctuations. However, the biological resources, especially the lake influenced wetlands, benefit from the waterlevel fluctuations. Great Lakes wetlands are the most important habitat for wildlife of the region (Tilton and Schwegler, 1978). We provide information here on the responses of wetland plant communities in two wetlands to changes in lake levels over time.

  17. Predicting the toxicity of permethrin to Daphnia magna in water using SPME fibers.

    PubMed

    Harwood, Amanda D; Bunch, Aubrey R; Flickinger, Dallas L; You, Jing; Lydy, Michael J

    2012-04-01

    Multiple factors can influence bioavailability, which can make predictions of toxicity in natural systems difficult. The current study examined the potential use of solid-phase microextraction fibers as a matrix-independent approach to predict the toxicity of permethrin to Daphnia magna across various water sources, including a laboratory reconstituted water, two natural waters, and a modified natural water. Water source strongly affected the toxicity of permethrin as well as the concentration-response relationships. Although permethrin concentrations in the water were predictive of toxicity to D. magna for individual water sources, there was no relationship between permethrin concentrations among water sources and mortality. This indicated that compositional differences among water sources can greatly influence toxicity, suggesting that benchmarks established using reconstituted water may be overly conservative for some natural waters. In addition, although permethrin tissue residues were predictive of mortality for individual waters, the correlation among waters was not as clear. Finally, both 48-h and equilibrium-based SPME fiber concentrations adequately predicted toxicity independent of water properties. This demonstrated that bioavailability-based estimates provided a more accurate prediction of toxicity than water concentrations and that SPME fibers could be used in environmental monitoring as a rapid and accurate means of predicting toxicity in natural waters.

  18. Modeling and experimental examination of water level effects on radon exhalation from fragmented uranium ore.

    PubMed

    Ye, Yong-Jun; Dai, Xin-Tao; Ding, De-Xin; Zhao, Ya-Li

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a one-dimensional steady-state mathematical model of radon transport in fragmented uranium ore was established according to Fick's law and radon transfer theory in an air-water interface. The model was utilized to obtain an analytical solution for radon concentration in the air-water, two-phase system under steady state conditions, as well as a corresponding radon exhalation rate calculation formula. We also designed a one-dimensional experimental apparatus for simulating radon diffusion migration in the uranium ore with various water levels to verify the mathematical model. The predicted results were in close agreement with the measured results, suggesting that the proposed model can be readily used to determine radon concentrations and exhalation rates in fragmented uranium ore with varying water levels.

  19. A Methylmercury Prediction Too For Surface Waters Across The Contiguous United States (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krabbenhoft, D. P.; Booth, N.; Lutz, M.; Fienen, M. N.; Saltman, T.

    2009-12-01

    About 20 years ago, researchers at a few locations across the globe discovered high levels of mercury in fish from remote settings lacking any obvious mercury source. We now know that for most locations atmospheric deposition is the dominant mercury source, and that mercury methylation is the key process that translates low mercury loading rates into relatively high levels in top predators of aquatic food webs. Presently, almost all US states have advisories for elevated levels of mercury in sport fish, and as a result there is considerable public awareness and concern for this nearly ubiquitous contaminant issue. In some states, “statewide” advisories have been issued because elevated fish mercury levels are so common, or the state has no effective way to monitor thousands of lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, and streams. As such, resource managers and public health officials have limited options for informing the public on of where elevated mercury concentrations in sport fish are more likely to occur than others. This project provides, for the first time, a national map of predicted (modeled) methylmercury concentrations in surface waters, which is the most toxic and bioaccumulative form of mercury in the environment. The map is the result of over two decades of research that resulted in the formulation of conceptual models of the mercury methylation process, which is strongly governed by environmental conditions - specifically hydrologic landscapes and water quality. The resulting predictive map shows clear regional trends in the distribution of methylmercury concentrations in surface waters. East of the Mississippi, the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic coast, the northeast, the lower Mississippi valley, and Great Lakes area are predicted to have generally higher environmental methylmercury levels. Higher-elevation, well-drained areas of Appalachia are predicted to have relatively lower methylmercury abundance. Other than the prairie pothole region, in the western

  20. Methodology for predicting cooling water effects on fish

    SciTech Connect

    Cakiroglu, C.; Yurteri, C.

    1998-07-01

    The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Aparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically values species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact.

  1. Politics of innovation in multi-level water governance systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, Katherine A.; Coombes, Peter J.; White, Ian

    2014-11-01

    Innovations are being proposed in many countries in order to support change towards more sustainable and water secure futures. However, the extent to which they can be implemented is subject to complex politics and powerful coalitions across multi-level governance systems and scales of interest. Exactly how innovation uptake can be best facilitated or blocked in these complex systems is thus a matter of important practical and research interest in water cycle management. From intervention research studies in Australia, China and Bulgaria, this paper seeks to describe and analyse the behind-the-scenes struggles and coalition-building that occurs between water utility providers, private companies, experts, communities and all levels of government in an effort to support or block specific innovations. The research findings suggest that in order to ensure successful passage of the proposed innovations, champions for it are required from at least two administrative levels, including one with innovation implementation capacity, as part of a larger supportive coalition. Higher governance levels can play an important enabling role in facilitating the passage of certain types of innovations that may be in competition with currently entrenched systems of water management. Due to a range of natural biases, experts on certain innovations and disciplines may form part of supporting or blocking coalitions but their evaluations of worth for water system sustainability and security are likely to be subject to competing claims based on different values and expertise, so may not necessarily be of use in resolving questions of "best courses of action". This remains a political values-based decision to be negotiated through the receiving multi-level water governance system.

  2. Hydrologic effects on water level changes associated with episodic fault creep near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.A.; Burford, S.S.; Riley, F.S.; Records, A.W.

    1989-01-01

    As part of the Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment, water level is monitored in a well 460 m from the main trace of the San Andreas fault on Middle Mountain, in the preparation zone of the anticipated Parkfield earthquake. The well configuration allows water level to be monitored in two fluid reservoirs at depths of 85 and 250 m below land surface. During 1987, water level changes were recorded during 12 of the 18 episodes of accelerated fault creep detected by a creep meter spanning the fault trace 750 m northwest of the well. The creep-related water level changes in the shallow reservoir have durations of less than 1 day, whereas in the deeper reservoir the changes persist for as long as 2 months. These data suggest that the transient nature of the water level changes in the shallow interval is due to vertical flow to the water table and is not evidence that creep events propagate past the well. -from Authors

  3. Water-Table Levels and Gradients, Nevada, 1947-2004

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lopes, Thomas J.; Buto, Susan G.; Smith, J. LaRue; Welborn, Toby L.

    2006-01-01

    In 1999, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency began a program to protect the quality of ground water in areas other than ground-water protection areas. These other sensitive ground water areas (OSGWA) are areas that are not currently, but could eventually be, used as a source of drinking water. The OSGWA program specifically addresses existing wells that are used for underground injection of motor-vehicle waste. To help determine whether a well is in an OSGWA, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection needs statewide information on depth to water and the water table, which partly control the susceptibility of ground water to contamination and contaminant transport. This report describes a study that used available maps and data to create statewide maps of water-table and depth-to-water contours and surfaces, assessed temporal changes in water-table levels, and characterized water-table gradients in selected areas of Nevada. A literature search of published water-table and depth-to-water contours produced maps of varying detail and scope in 104 reports published from 1948 to 2004. Where multiple maps covered the same area, criteria were used to select the most recent, detailed maps that covered the largest area and had plotted control points. These selection criteria resulted in water-table and depth-to-water contours that are based on data collected from 1947 to 2004 being selected from 39 reports. If not already available digitally, contours and control points were digitized from selected maps, entered into a geographic information system, and combined to make a statewide map of water-table contours. Water-table surfaces were made by using inverse distance weighting to estimate the water table between contours and then gridding the estimates. Depth-to-water surfaces were made by subtracting the water-table altitude from the land-surface altitude. Water-table and depth-to-water surfaces were made for only 21 percent of Nevada because of a lack of

  4. Reduction in predicted survival times in cold water due to wind and waves.

    PubMed

    Power, Jonathan; Simões Ré, António; Barwood, Martin; Tikuisis, Peter; Tipton, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Recent marine accidents have called into question the level of protection provided by immersion suits in real (harsh) life situations. Two immersion suit studies, one dry and the other with 500 mL of water underneath the suit, were conducted in cold water with 10-12 males in each to test body heat loss under three environmental conditions: calm, as mandated for immersion suit certification, and two combinations of wind plus waves to simulate conditions typically found offshore. In both studies mean skin heat loss was higher in wind and waves vs. calm; deep body temperature and oxygen consumption were not different. Mean survival time predictions exceeded 36 h for all conditions in the first study but were markedly less in the second in both calm and wind and waves. Immersion suit protection and consequential predicted survival times under realistic environmental conditions and with leakage are reduced relative to calm conditions.

  5. Theory of Mind Predicts Severity Level in Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoogenhout, Michelle; Malcolm-Smith, Susan

    2017-01-01

    We investigated whether theory of mind skills can indicate autism spectrum disorder severity. In all, 62 children with autism spectrum disorder completed a developmentally sensitive theory of mind battery. We used intelligence quotient, "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed.) diagnosis and level of support…

  6. Predicting the Proficiency Level of Language Learners Using Lexical Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossley, Scott A.; Salsbury, Tom; McNamara, Danielle S.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores how second language (L2) texts written by learners at various proficiency levels can be classified using computational indices that characterize lexical competence. For this study, 100 writing samples taken from 100 L2 learners were analyzed using lexical indices reported by the computational tool Coh-Metrix. The L2 writing…

  7. Prediction of Turbulent Jet Mixing Noise Reduction by Water Injection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kandula, Max

    2008-01-01

    A one-dimensional control volume formulation is developed for the determination of jet mixing noise reduction due to water injection. The analysis starts from the conservation of mass, momentum and energy for the confrol volume, and introduces the concept of effective jet parameters (jet temperature, jet velocity and jet Mach number). It is shown that the water to jet mass flow rate ratio is an important parameter characterizing the jet noise reduction on account of gas-to-droplet momentum and heat transfer. Two independent dimensionless invariant groups are postulated, and provide the necessary relations for the droplet size and droplet Reynolds number. Results are presented illustrating the effect of mass flow rate ratio on the jet mixing noise reduction for a range of jet Mach number and jet Reynolds number. Predictions from the model show satisfactory comparison with available test data on perfectly expanded hot supersonic jets. The results suggest that significant noise reductions can be achieved at increased flow rate ratios.

  8. Water-level changes (1975-1998) in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carlson, Carl S.; Phillips, Steven P.

    1998-01-01

    Antelope Valley is in the western part of the Mojave Desert in southern California, about 50 mi northeast of Los Angeles. Between 1975 and 1998, water levels in the valley have changed in response to a shift in ground-water use from agricultural to urban, declining in some areas and rising in others. A study to document these changes was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Antelope Valley Water Group. This report presents the water-level data and the changes that occurred during this study period.

  9. Analysis of water level variations in Brazilian basins using GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matos, A.; Blitzkow, D.; Almeida, F.; Costa, S.; Campos, I.; Barbosa, A.

    2012-01-01

    A comparison between daily in-situ water level time series measured at ground-based hydrometric stations (HS - 1,899 stations located in twelve Brazilian basins) of the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) with vertically-integrated water height anomaly deduced from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) geoid is carried out in Brazil. The equivalent water height (EWH) of 10-day intervals of GRACE models were computed by GRGS/CNES. It is a 6-year analysis (July-2002 to May-2008). The coefficient of determination is computed between the ANA water level and GRACE EWH. Values higher than 0.6 were detected in the following basins: Amazon, north of Paraguay, Tocantins-Araguaia, Western North-East Atlantic and north of the Parnaíba. In the Uruguay (Pampas region) and the west of São Francisco basins, the coefficient of determination is around 0.5 and 0.6. These results were adjusted with a linear transfer function and two second degree polynomials (flood and ebb period) between GRACE EWH and ANA water level. The behavior of these two polynomials is related to the phase difference of the two time series and yielded four different types of responses. This paper shows seven ANA stations that represent these responses and relates them with their hydro-geological domain.

  10. Low-level measurements of tritium in water.

    PubMed

    Villa, M; Manjón, G

    2004-01-01

    Using a liquid scintillation counter, an experimental procedure for measuring low-level activity concentrations of tritium in environmental water has been developed by our laboratory, using the electrolytic tritium enrichment. Additionally, some quality tests were applied in order to assure the goodness of the method. Well-known water samples collected in the Tagus River (West of Spain) and the Danube River (Bulgaria), both affected by nuclear plant releases, were analysed and results were compared to previous data. The analytical procedure was applied to drinking water samples from the public water supply of Seville and mineral waters from different springs in Spain in order to characterize its origin. Due to the very low levels of tritium in the analysed samples, some results were reported as lower than the minimum detectable activity concentration (MDA). However, the count rate of these measurements was over the background count rate of LS counter in all the cases. For that reason, an exhaustive discussion about the meaning of the MDA, using an experimental essay, was made in order to establish a rigorous criterion that leads to a reliable value in the case of low-level measurements.

  11. Neonatal thyroxine level and perchlorate in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Li, Z; Li, F X; Byrd, D; Deyhle, G M; Sesser, D E; Skeels, M R; Lamm, S H

    2000-02-01

    Environmental contamination of drinking water has been observed for perchlorate, a chemical able to affect thyroid function. This study examines whether that exposure affected the thyroid function of newborns. Neonatal blood thyroxine (T4) levels for days 1 to 4 of life were compared for newborns from the city of Las Vegas, Nevada, which has perchlorate in its drinking water, and those from the city of Reno, Nevada, which does not (detection limit, 4 micrograms/L [ppb]). This study is based on blood T4 analyses from more than 23,000 newborns in these two cities during the period April 1998 through June 1999. No difference was found in the mean blood T4 levels of the newborns from these two cities. Drinking water perchlorate levels measured monthly for Las Vegas ranged during this study period from non-detectable for 8 months to levels of 9 to 15 ppb for 7 months. Temporal differences in mean T4 level were noted in both cities but were unrelated to the perchlorate exposure. This study was sufficiently sensitive to detect the effects of gender, birth weight, and the day of life on which the blood sample was taken on the neonatal T4 level, but it detected no effect from environmental exposures to perchlorate that ranged up to 15 micrograms/L (ppb).

  12. CAN FLUORIDATION AFFECT WATER LEAD LEVELS AND LEAD NEUROTOXICITY?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent reports have attempted to show that certain approaches to fluoridating potable water is linked to increased levels of lead(II) in the blood. We examine these claims in light of the established science and critically evaluate their significance. The completeness of nexafluo...

  13. Comparison Between Water Level and Precipitation in Rio Negro Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figliuolo, G. C.; Santos Da Silva, J.; Calmant, S.; Seyler, F.; Correia, F.; Oliveira, R. J.

    2013-12-01

    The Amazon Basin holds a lot of difficulties for providing data that enable regional researching works, because of its large extension and for having areas, whose access is very difficult. Remote sensing data presents an excellent way for monitoring the Amazon Basin and collecting data for researches. This current study aims matching radar altimetry data from the JASON-2, with the rainfall data from the TRMM satellite in order to analyze the relation between the water level and the precipitation in two different points along the Rio Negro Basin. After data analysis, it was possible noting a difference on the responding process for both regions. Whilst at the NEGRO_089_03 station (located in the city of São Gabriel da Cachoeira) the graphic of precipitation and water level were very similar, in NEGRO_063 station (located in the city of Manaus) the graphic showed a two month discrepancy due to the difference of the river's bottom size in both regions, at NEGRO_089_03's area for having a smaller river and the water level rises faster, whereas in NEGRO_063 the water level takes about two months to respond to precipitation.

  14. TRIHALOMETHANE LEVELS IN HOME TAP WATER AND SEMEN QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Trihalomethane Levels in Home Tap Water and Semen Quality
    Laura Fenster, 1 Kirsten Waller, 2 Gayle Windham, 1 Tanya Henneman, 2 Meredith Anderson, 2 Pauline Mendola, 3 James W. Overstreet, 4 Shanna H. Swan5

    1California Department of Health Services, Division of Environm...

  15. [Relationship between groundwater level in riparian wetlands and water level in the river].

    PubMed

    Xu, Hua-Shan; Zhao, Tong-Qian; Meng, Hong-Qi; Xu, Zong-Xue; Ma, Chao-Hong

    2011-02-01

    The development and degradation processes of riparian wetlands are significantly affected by river hydrological processes. By observing the variation of groundwater levels in riparian wetlands at the Kouma section of the Yellow River Wetland, especially that during the period of regulation for water and sediment at the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, relationship between groundwater level in riparian wetlands and flood water level in the river is studied. The results show that groundwater level in riparian wetlands is significantly affected by water level in the river investigated. There is a negative exponential relationship between groundwater level and the distance between wells and river. The correlation coefficient shows the maximum (R2 > 0.98) during the period of regulation for water and sediment. Affected by the cultivation system in the flooding area, distance between monitoring wells and river bank, water level in the river variation of groundwater level in the wetland changed greatly. In artificial wetland, which is far from the river, the inter-annual variation in groundwater levels show a " (see symbol)" shape, while in the farmland, which is close to the river, the inter-annual variation of groundwater levels show a big peak. The groundwater level 400 m from the river is affected by flood events obviously, that in the area which is less than 200 m from the river is significantly affected by flood events in the area which is especially less than that in the area that is less than 100 m from the river, the groundwater level is affected by flood events intensively. The result indicated that there was a very close relationship between groundwater and surface water, and it was the hydrological ecotone between groundwater of riparian wetlands and the river. It is very important that rational protection for this region (very important for the area which is less than 100 m from the river, important for the area that is between 100 m and 200 m from the river) is

  16. Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.

    2011-01-01

    To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

  17. Advanced System-Level Reliability Analysis and Prediction with Field Data Integration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    innovative life prediction methodologies that incorporate emerging probabilistic lifing techniques as well as advanced physics-of- failure...often based on simplifying assumptions and their predictions may suffer from different sources of uncertainty. For instance, one source of...system level, most modeling approaches focus on life prediction for single components and fail to account for the interdependencies that may result

  18. Predicting Airborne Particle Levels Aboard Washington State School Buses

    PubMed Central

    Adar, Sara D.; Davey, Mark; Sullivan, James R.; Compher, Michael; Szpiro, Adam; Liu, L.-J. Sally

    2008-01-01

    School buses contribute substantially to childhood air pollution exposures yet they are rarely quantified in epidemiology studies. This paper characterizes fine particulate matter (PM2.5) aboard school buses as part of a larger study examining the respiratory health impacts of emission-reducing retrofits. To assess onboard concentrations, continuous PM2.5 data were collected during 85 trips aboard 43 school buses during normal driving routines, and aboard hybrid lead vehicles traveling in front of the monitored buses during 46 trips. Ordinary and partial least square regression models for PM2.5 onboard buses were created with and without control for roadway concentrations, which were also modeled. Predictors examined included ambient PM2.5 levels, ambient weather, and bus and route characteristics. Concentrations aboard school buses (21 μg/m3) were four and two-times higher than ambient and roadway levels, respectively. Differences in PM2.5 levels between the buses and lead vehicles indicated an average of 7 μg/m3 originating from the bus's own emission sources. While roadway concentrations were dominated by ambient PM2.5, bus concentrations were influenced by bus age, diesel oxidative catalysts, and roadway concentrations. Cross validation confirmed the roadway models but the bus models were less robust. These results confirm that children are exposed to air pollution from the bus and other roadway traffic while riding school buses. In-cabin air pollution is higher than roadway concentrations and is likely influenced by bus characteristics. PMID:18985175

  19. Effect of pumpage on ground-water levels as modeled in Laramie County, Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crist, Marvin A.

    1980-01-01

    Groundwater is being extensively developed for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use in a 2,320-square mile area in Laramie County, WY., bounded approximately by Horse Creek on the north, Nebraska on the east, Colorado on the south, and pre-Tertiary outcrops on the west. Currently (1977) about 47,300 acres of land are irrigated with groundwater. Groundwater levels are declining in some areas as much as 4 feet per year. The investigation was made to provide State water administrators with data on water-level changes resulting from present (1977) groundwater withdrawals and to provide a means of predicting the future effect of groundwater development. A digital model was developed of the hydrologic system in the post-Cretaceous rocks. The ability of the model to simulate the hydrologic system was determined by comparing the water-level changes measured at 37 observation wells located in areas of irrigation pumping with the water-level changes calculated by the model for 1971-77. Comparison of the measured and calculated changes showed agreement with a root-mean-square deviation of + or - 3.6 feet with 8 feet as the maximum deviation. It is concluded that the model adequately simulates present hydrologic conditions in the post-Cretaceous rocks and may be used to predict the effect of applied stress to the system. (USGS)

  20. System for water level measurement based on pressure transducer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paczesny, Daniel; Marzecki, Michał; Woyke, Michał; Tarapata, Grzegorz

    2016-09-01

    The paper reports system for water level measurement, which is designed to be used for measuring liquid levels in the tanks of an autonomous industrial cleaning robot. The selected method of measurement utilized by the designed system is based on pressure measurement. Such system is insensitive on vibrations, foams presence and liquid impurities. The influences of variable pressure on the measurements were eliminated by utilizing the differential method and as well as the system design. The system is capable of measuring water level in tanks up to 400 mm of height with accuracy of about 2,5%. The system was tested in a container during filling and emptying with various liquids. Performed tests exhibited the linearity of the sensor characteristic and the lack of hysteresis. Obtained sensitivity of the sensor prototype was approximately 6,2 mV/mm H2O.

  1. Water-soluble vitamin levels in extended hours hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Coveney, Natalie; Polkinghorne, Kevan R; Linehan, Leanne; Corradini, AnnMarie; Kerr, Peter G

    2011-01-01

    Patients on extended hours (>15 h/week) hemodialysis may be at a higher risk of deficiency of water-soluble vitamins than conventional (≤15 h/week) hemodialysis patients due to their increased weekly hours of dialysis. We compared serum levels of the water-soluble vitamins in a group of extended and conventional hours hemodialysis patients. Predialysis serum levels of vitamin C, vitamin B12, thiamine, pyridoxine, and folate were measured in 52 patients: 26 extended group and 26 conventional group. Information on patient's intake of vitamin supplements and dialysis regimen was obtained. Data were log transformed due to the skewed distribution of the results. Median vitamin C levels were significantly lower in the extended group (0.30 vs. 1.14 mg/dL, P<0.001), with 7 patients having a level <0.18 mg/dL. Thiamine levels were also lower in the extended group (median 211 vs. 438.5 nmol/L, P=0.0005). However, extended patients had higher levels of pyridoxine (23.2 vs. 11.1 ng/mL, P=0.03). Vitamin B12 and folate levels were not significantly different between the groups. There was significant variability in vitamin supplement prescription in both groups, and dietary data were not obtained. This study showed a high incidence of vitamin C deficiency in extended hours hemodialysis patients, suggesting that supplementation is warranted. It also supports an ongoing role for multivitamin supplementation in conventional hemodialysis patients.

  2. Multiple metals predict prolactin and thyrotropin (TSH) levels in men

    SciTech Connect

    Meeker, John D.; Rossano, Mary G.; Protas, Bridget; Diamond, Michael P.; Puscheck, Elizabeth; Daly, Douglas; Paneth, Nigel; Wirth, Julia J.

    2009-10-15

    Exposure to a number of metals can affect neuroendocrine and thyroid signaling, which can result in adverse effects on development, behavior, metabolism, reproduction, and other functions. The present study assessed the relationship between metal concentrations in blood and serum prolactin (PRL) and thyrotropin (TSH) levels, markers of dopaminergic, and thyroid function, respectively, among men participating in a study of environmental influences on male reproductive health. Blood samples from 219 men were analyzed for concentrations of 11 metals and serum levels of PRL and TSH. In multiple linear regression models adjusted for age, BMI and smoking, PRL was inversely associated with arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, manganese, molybdenum, and zinc, but positively associated with chromium. Several of these associations (Cd, Pb, Mo) are consistent with limited studies in humans or animals, and a number of the relationships (Cr, Cu, Pb, Mo) remained when additionally considering multiple metals in the model. Lead and copper were associated with non-monotonic decrease in TSH, while arsenic was associated with a dose-dependent increase in TSH. For arsenic these findings were consistent with recent experimental studies where arsenic inhibited enzymes involved in thyroid hormone synthesis and signaling. More research is needed for a better understanding of the role of metals in neuroendocrine and thyroid function and related health implications.

  3. Interpersonal Stressors Predict Ghrelin and Leptin Levels in Women

    PubMed Central

    Jaremka, Lisa M.; Belury, Martha A.; Andridge, Rebecca R.; Malarkey, William B.; Glaser, Ronald; Christian, Lisa; Emery, Charles F.; Kiecolt-Glaser, Janice K.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Stressful events enhance risk for weight gain and adiposity. Ghrelin and leptin, two hormones that are implicated in appetite regulation, may link stressful events to weight gain; a number of rodent studies suggest that stressors increase ghrelin production. The present study investigated the links among daily stressors, ghrelin and leptin, and dietary intake in humans. Method Women (N = 50) completed three study appointments that were scheduled at least 2 weeks apart. At each visit, women arrived fasting and ate a standardized breakfast and lunch. Blood samples were collected 45 minutes after each meal. Women completed a self-report version of the Daily Inventory of Stressful Events (DISE) at each appointment. Two composites were created from the DISE data, reflecting the number of stressors that did and did not involve interpersonal tension. Results Women who experienced more stressors involving interpersonal tension had higher ghrelin and lower leptin levels than those who experienced fewer interpersonal stressors. Furthermore, women who experienced more interpersonal stressors had a diet that was higher in calories, fat, carbohydrates, protein, sugar, sodium, and fiber, and marginally higher in cholesterol, vegetables (but not fruits), vitamin A, and vitamin C. Stressors that did not involve interpersonal tension were unrelated to ghrelin and leptin levels or any of the dietary components examined. Conclusions These data suggest that ghrelin and leptin may link daily interpersonal stressors to weight gain and obesity. PMID:25032903

  4. Predictive value of the efficacy of tolvaptan in liver cirrhosis patients using free water clearance

    PubMed Central

    MIYAAKI, HISAMITSU; NAKAMURA, YUTAKA; ICHIKAWA, TATSUKI; TAURA, NAOTA; MIUMA, SATOSHI; SHIBATA, HIDETAKA; HONDA, TAKUYA; NAKAO, KAZUHIKO

    2015-01-01

    Tolvaptan, an arginine vasopressin V2 antagonist, is available for patients with refractory ascites. Free water clearance was evaluated as a predictor of tolvaptan efficacy. Twenty-one patients with refractory ascites were enrolled in the present study. Liver function test, renal function test, urine volume, free water clearance and osmotic pressure were measured at baseline (day 0) and for each dose of tolvaptan (1.875, 3.75 and 7.5 mg), and compared for efficacy. Tolvaptan increased urine volume and free water clearance decreased osmotic pressure at each dose of tolvaptan, compared to pretreatment levels. Compared to baseline, an increased volume of free water clearance at 1.875 mg of tolvaptan showed a significant correlation with body weight reduction (r=0.480 and P=0.028). Any factors (age, liver function test and renal function test) at pretreatment showed no significant correlation with body weight reduction. An increased volume of urine and osmotic pressure at each dose was not significantly correlated with the tolvaptan effect. Compared to baseline, an increased volume of free water clearance at 1.875 mg of tolvaptan in responders was significantly increased, compared to non-responders (270±241 ml/day: 27±257 ml/day; P=0.042). In conclusion, an increased volume of free water clearance on day 1 was significantly associated with body weight reduction. Free water clearance could be a simple and useful marker for the prediction of tolvaptan efficacy. PMID:26623035

  5. Predictive value of the efficacy of tolvaptan in liver cirrhosis patients using free water clearance.

    PubMed

    Miyaaki, Hisamitsu; Nakamura, Yutaka; Ichikawa, Tatsuki; Taura, Naota; Miuma, Satoshi; Shibata, Hidetaka; Honda, Takuya; Nakao, Kazuhiko

    2015-11-01

    Tolvaptan, an arginine vasopressin V2 antagonist, is available for patients with refractory ascites. Free water clearance was evaluated as a predictor of tolvaptan efficacy. Twenty-one patients with refractory ascites were enrolled in the present study. Liver function test, renal function test, urine volume, free water clearance and osmotic pressure were measured at baseline (day 0) and for each dose of tolvaptan (1.875, 3.75 and 7.5 mg), and compared for efficacy. Tolvaptan increased urine volume and free water clearance decreased osmotic pressure at each dose of tolvaptan, compared to pretreatment levels. Compared to baseline, an increased volume of free water clearance at 1.875 mg of tolvaptan showed a significant correlation with body weight reduction (r=0.480 and P=0.028). Any factors (age, liver function test and renal function test) at pretreatment showed no significant correlation with body weight reduction. An increased volume of urine and osmotic pressure at each dose was not significantly correlated with the tolvaptan effect. Compared to baseline, an increased volume of free water clearance at 1.875 mg of tolvaptan in responders was significantly increased, compared to non-responders (270±241 ml/day: 27±257 ml/day; P=0.042). In conclusion, an increased volume of free water clearance on day 1 was significantly associated with body weight reduction. Free water clearance could be a simple and useful marker for the prediction of tolvaptan efficacy.

  6. Comparison of nitrate levels in raw water and finished water from historical monitoring data on Iowa municipal drinking water supplies.

    PubMed

    Weyer, Peter J; Smith, Brian J; Feng, Zhen-Fang; Kantamneni, Jiji R; Riley, David G

    2006-05-01

    Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s-1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.

  7. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  8. Plasticity in leaf-level water relations of tropical rainforest trees in response to experimental drought.

    PubMed

    Binks, Oliver; Meir, Patrick; Rowland, Lucy; da Costa, Antonio Carlos Lola; Vasconcelos, Steel Silva; de Oliveira, Alex Antonio Ribeiro; Ferreira, Leandro; Christoffersen, Bradley; Nardini, Andrea; Mencuccini, Maurizio

    2016-07-01

    The tropics are predicted to become warmer and drier, and understanding the sensitivity of tree species to drought is important for characterizing the risk to forests of climate change. This study makes use of a long-term drought experiment in the Amazon rainforest to evaluate the role of leaf-level water relations, leaf anatomy and their plasticity in response to drought in six tree genera. The variables (osmotic potential at full turgor, turgor loss point, capacitance, elastic modulus, relative water content and saturated water content) were compared between seasons and between plots (control and through-fall exclusion) enabling a comparison between short- and long-term plasticity in traits. Leaf anatomical traits were correlated with water relation parameters to determine whether water relations differed among tissues. The key findings were: osmotic adjustment occurred in response to the long-term drought treatment; species resistant to drought stress showed less osmotic adjustment than drought-sensitive species; and water relation traits were correlated with tissue properties, especially the thickness of the abaxial epidermis and the spongy mesophyll. These findings demonstrate that cell-level water relation traits can acclimate to long-term water stress, and highlight the limitations of extrapolating the results of short-term studies to temporal scales associated with climate change.

  9. Numerical Weather Prediction and Earth System Prediction to Better Understand Sea Level Rise/Coastal Issues as They Affect Readiness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-11-01

    National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 19 Cancelled  Sor&es  during  OIF   Dust   Storm   (Based  on  LCDR  Jake...Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) •  Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System ( COAMPS ) •  Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM... Storms •  Arctic •  Sea Level •  Perma frost •  Military preparedness –  Equipment –  Facilities –  Training National Unified Operational

  10. Predicting Group-Level Outcome Variables from Variables Measured at the Individual Level: A Latent Variable Multilevel Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Croon, Marcel A.; van Veldhoven, Marc J. P. M.

    2007-01-01

    In multilevel modeling, one often distinguishes between macro-micro and micro-macro situations. In a macro-micro multilevel situation, a dependent variable measured at the lower level is predicted or explained by variables measured at that lower or a higher level. In a micro-macro multilevel situation, a dependent variable defined at the higher…

  11. [Optimal fluoride level in drinking water and public health].

    PubMed

    Karsenty, E; Sgan-Cohen, H; Vered, Y; Leventhal, A

    2003-11-01

    Water fluoridation is a safe, efficient, and well-proven way of preventing dental decay in the community. In countries such as Israel, where dental care is not covered by the national insurance law, this has an important role in reducing social inequalities in health care. For toddlers and children, water fluoridation is the only way of promoting dental health without a need for regular visits to dental clinics, and without regard to parent awareness and motivation. The other methods of fluoride supplementation do not succeed in reaching the level of safety and cost-efficiency of water fluoridation, and their use is successful only among upper socio-economic classes. Water fluoridation has been defined by the US CDC as one of the main achievements in health care during the 20th century. In spite of the legal difficulties raised by various activist groups, the use of water fluoridation is growing steadily among developed as well as third world countries. The Israeli bylaw of national water fluoridation that is in effect will enable the safe improvement of the overall dental health status of the population at an extremely low cost.

  12. Movements of florida apple snails in relation to water levels and drying events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darby, P.C.; Bennetts, R.E.; Miller, S.J.; Percival, H.F.

    2002-01-01

    Florida apple snails (Pomacea Paludosa) apparently have only a limited tolerance to wetland drying events (although little direct evidence exists), but their populations routinely face dry downs under natural and managed water regimes. In this paper, we address speculation that apple snails respond to decreasing water levels and potential drying events by moving toward refugia that remain inundated. We monitored the movements of apple snails in central Florida, USA during drying events at the Blue Cypress Marsh (BC) and at Lake Kissimmee (LK). We monitored the weekly movements of 47 BC snails and 31 LK snails using radio-telemetry. Snails tended to stop moving when water depths were 10 cm. Snails moved along the greatest positive depth gradient (i.e., towards deeper water) when they encountered water depths between 10 and 20 cm. Snails tended to move toward shallower water in water depths ???50 cm, suggesting that snails were avoiding deep water areas such as canals and sloughs. Of the 11 BC snails originally located in the area that eventually went dry, three (27%) were found in deep water refugia by the end of the study. Only one of the 31 LK snails escaped the drying event by moving to deeper water. Our results indicate that some snails may opportunistically escape drying events through movement. The tendency to move toward deeper water was statistically significant and indicates that this behavioral trait might enhance survival when the spatial extent of a dry down is limited. However, as water level falls below 10 cm, snails stop moving and become stranded. As the spatial extent of a dry down increases, we predict that the number of snails stranded would increase proportionally. Stranded Pomacea paludosa must contend with dry marsh conditions, possibly by aestivation. Little more than anecdotal information has been published on P. paludosa aestivation, but it is a common adaptation among other apple snails (Caenogastropoda: Ampullaridae). ?? 2002, The Society

  13. Predicting the salt water intrusion in the Shatt al-Arab estuary using an analytical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdullah, Ali D.; Gisen, Jacqueline I. A.; van der Zaag, Pieter; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Karim, Usama F. A.; Masih, Ilyas; Popescu, Ioana

    2016-10-01

    Longitudinal and vertical salinity measurements are used in this study to predict the extent of inland seawater intrusion in a deltaic river estuary. A predictive model is constructed to apply to the specific tidal, seasonal, and discharge variability and geometric characteristics of the Shatt al-Arab River (SAR) situated along the border of Iraq and Iran. Reliable hydrologic simulation of salinity dynamics and seawater intrusion was lacking prior to this study. Tidal excursion is simulated analytically using a 1-D analytical salt intrusion model with recently updated equations for tidal mixing. The model was applied under different river conditions to analyse the seasonal variability of salinity distribution during wet and dry periods near spring and neap tides between March 2014 and January 2015. A good fit is possible with this model between computed and observed salinity distribution. Estimating water abstractions along the estuary improves the performance of the equations, especially at low flows and with a well-calibrated dispersion-excursion relationship of the updated equations. Salt intrusion lengths given the current data varied from 38 to 65 km during the year of observation. With extremely low river discharge, which is highly likely there, we predict a much further distance of 92 km. These new predictions demonstrate that the SAR, already plagued with extreme salinity, may face deteriorating water quality levels in the near future, requiring prompt interventions.

  14. Serum Parathyroid Hormone Levels Predict Falls in Older Diabetic Adults

    PubMed Central

    Houston, Denise K.; Schwartz, Ann V.; Cauley, Jane A.; Tylavsky, Frances A.; Simonsick, Eleanor M.; Harris, Tamara B.; de Rekeneire, Nathalie; Schwartz, Gary G.; Kritchevsky, Stephen B.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives To examine the association between serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels and incident falls in older diabetic adults. Design Longitudinal analysis of incident falls over 1 year in a sub-study of diabetic participants in the Health, Aging and Body Composition study. Setting Pittsburgh, PA, and Memphis, TN. Participants Well-functioning, community-dwelling black and white adults aged 70-79 with diabetes (n = 472). Measurements Measured baseline serum PTH. Self-report of falls over the subsequent 12 months. Baseline physical performance and self-reported demographic, behavioral, and health status measures including kidney function, chronic conditions and medication use. Results 30.3% of participants reported falling over one year of follow-up. The mean ± SD baseline serum PTH was 53.5 ± 30.0 pg/mL in non-fallers and 62.6 ± 46.2 pg/mL in fallers (p = 0.01). For every 1 SD (36 pg/mL) increment in baseline serum PTH, there was approximately a 30% increased likelihood of reporting a fall in the subsequent year after adjusting for age, gender, race, field center, alcohol consumption, BMI, physical activity, and winter/spring season (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.59). Further adjustment for kidney function, chronic conditions, medication and supplement use, and physical performance attenuated the association slightly (OR (95% CI): 1.26 (1.01-1.58)). A trend remained after additional adjustment for reported falls in the previous year. Conclusion Higher serum PTH was associated with incident falls among older, well-functioning diabetic men and women. Further investigation aimed at understanding the underlying mechanism for the association between serum PTH and falls is needed. PMID:19016936

  15. Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conner, W.H.; Brody, M.

    1989-01-01

    An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servicea??s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50a??100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.

  16. Water Level Temporal Variation Analysis at Prata Basin Using GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimaraes, G.; Blitzkow, D.; Matos, A.; Vaz, F.; Campos, I.; Barbosa, A.

    2008-12-01

    A comparison between daily in-situ water level time series measured at ground-based hydrometric stations of Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) with vertically-integrated water height deduced from GRACE geoid (height anomaly) is carried out. The 10-day intervals of GRACE models were computed by Groupe de Recherches de Géodésie Spatiale (CNES/GRGS). The height anomaly was converted into equivalent water height, over the Prata basin for a ~6-year period (July-2002 to May-2008). A correlation around 74 per cent has been detected. This correlation allows defining a local transfer function by adjusting a linear relationship between GRACE-based and in situ observation time-series. The study of the Continuous Wavelet Transform was applied in the hydrometric stations and a time-scale correlation was figured out.

  17. Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level.

    PubMed

    Chao, B F; Wu, Y H; Li, Y S

    2008-04-11

    By reconstructing the history of water impoundment in the world's artificial reservoirs, we show that a total of approximately 10,800 cubic kilometers of water has been impounded on land to date, reducing the magnitude of global sea level (GSL) rise by -30.0 millimeters, at an average rate of -0.55 millimeters per year during the past half century. This demands a considerably larger contribution to GSL rise from other (natural and anthropogenic) causes than otherwise required. The reconstructed GSL history, accounting for the impact of reservoirs by adding back the impounded water volume, shows an essentially constant rate of rise at +2.46 millimeters per year over at least the past 80 years. This value is contrary to the conventional view of apparently variable GSL rise, which is based on face values of observation.

  18. Present and proposed ground-water-level program in Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adamik, J.T.

    1984-01-01

    A statewide observation-well program was designed for Maine. Three networks were designed to provide reliable data to describe the effects of natural and manmade stress on water levels in the State. They are a climatic-effects network, a terrain-effects network, and a local-effects network. Review of the 32 observation wells in the current program showed that only 17 wells should be retained. Each of these wells was assigned to one of the three types of networks. Fourteen wells were deactivated because of reliability problems and one was deactivated because it provided redundant data. The installation of seven additional wells in climatic-effects network is the highest priority of the proposed program. The next priority is to install 22 additional wells in the terrain-effects network. Implementation of local-effects network sites will be responsive to increases in ground-water usage and the data needs of water-resources managers. (USGS)

  19. Empirical prediction of peak pressure levels in anthropogenic impulsive noise. Part I: Airgun arrays signals.

    PubMed

    Galindo-Romero, Marta; Lippert, Tristan; Gavrilov, Alexander

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents an empirical linear equation to predict peak pressure level of anthropogenic impulsive signals based on its correlation with the sound exposure level. The regression coefficients are shown to be weakly dependent on the environmental characteristics but governed by the source type and parameters. The equation can be applied to values of the sound exposure level predicted with a numerical model, which provides a significant improvement in the prediction of the peak pressure level. Part I presents the analysis for airgun arrays signals, and Part II considers the application of the empirical equation to offshore impact piling noise.

  20. Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Morello, Fulvio; Ravetti, Anna; Nazerian, Peiman; Liedl, Giovanni; Veglio, Maria Grazia; Battista, Stefania; Vanni, Simone; Pivetta, Emanuele; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Mengozzi, Giulio; Rinaldi, Mauro; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far. This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality. One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367–557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331–460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37–51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69–76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11–4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable

  1. Water-level controls on macro-tidal rip currents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Austin, Martin J.; Masselink, Gerd; Scott, Tim M.; Russell, Paul E.

    2014-03-01

    Field measurements and numerical modelling have been used to investigate the water-level control of rip current dynamics on a macro-tidal beach. Field data collected over 32 complete tidal cycles, spanning a range of wave and tide conditions, demonstrate that rip current strength and behaviour is modulated at the semi-diurnal frequency by tide-induced changes in the water-level over bar/rip morphology. Peak flow speeds in the rip neck correspond to the time of maximum wave breaking 1.5 h before and after low water. Alongshore-directed water surface gradients ∂η/∂y were measured along the feeder channel and around the ends of the inter-tidal bar, with head differences O(0.1 m). The numerical model reproduced ∂η/∂y with a good level of skill and showed that ∂η/∂y and increase with the proportion of breaking waves Qb over the inter-tidal bar; but was maximised during peak Qb, maximum ∂η/∂y occurred when wave breaking moved offshore to the sub-tidal bar and Qb was reduced. Around low water, the forcing of the rip current by the alongshore pressure-driven feeder current was reduced by the decrease in Qb over the bar and feeder regions, but an offshore flow through the rip channel was maintained by a localised intensification of ∂η/∂y around the ends of the inter-tidal bar.

  2. Methods of measuring water levels in deep wells

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garber, M.S.; Koopman, F. C.

    1968-01-01

    Accurate measurement of water levels deeper than 1,000 feet in wells requires specialized equipment. Corrections for stretch and thermal expansion of measuring tapes must be considered, and other measuring devices must be calibrated periodically. Bore-hole deviation corrections also must be made. Devices for recording fluctuation of fluid level usually require mechanical modification for use at these depths. A multichannel recording device utilizing pressure transducers has been constructed. This device was originally designed to record aquifer response to nearby underground nuclear explosions but can also be used for recording data from multi-well pumping tests. Bottom-hole recording devices designed for oil-field use have been utilized in a limited manner. These devices were generally found to lack the precision required, in ground-water investigations at the Nevada Test Site but may be applicable in other areas. A newly developed bottom-hole recording pressure gauge of improved accuracy has been used with satisfactory results.

  3. Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  4. [EXPERIMENTAL GROUNDS ON POSSIBILITY TO MAKE AND TO USE PREDICTION MODELS OF PESTICIDES DESIGN STANDARD IN THE WATER OF PONDS USED FOR HOUSEHOLD AND DRINKING WATER SUPPLY].

    PubMed

    Vavrinevych, O P; Omel'chuk, S T

    2015-01-01

    Taking into account the fact that current calculation methods for substantiation of standards in the water of water reservoirs valid in Ukraine are outdated the aim of our research was to scientifically substantiate the possibility to make and to use prediction models of pesticides design standard in the water of ponds used for household and drinking water supply. Array of experimentally substantiated and approved to use in Ukraine maximum allowable concentrations (MAC) of organic pesticides active ingredients in the water was analyzed (n = 201). Analysis of dependence between MAC value of pesticides in the water and its physical and chemical properties, indices of ecotoxicological hazard and persistency in the water was carried out using correlation and regression analysis methods. Twelve regression equations to establish design value of pesticides MAC in the water were proposed on the grounds of performed analysis. The results of reliability testing of proposed procedure on pesticides design tentatively allowable levels (TAL) in the water indicate on needs to apply the least value of TAL obtained in the process of calculations using proposed equations. It was proved that mathematical models proposed for prediction of pesticide design standard in the water are adequate and significant by Fisher's test (P < 0.05). Proposed algorithm allows considerably simplify procedure of obtaining temporary hygienic standard in the water for new pesticides.

  5. Functionally Layered Video Coding for Water Level Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Udomsiri, Sakol; Iwahashi, Masahiro; Muramatsu, Shogo

    This paper proposes a new type of layered video coding especially for the use of monitoring water level of a river. A sensor node of the system decomposes an input video signal into some kinds of component signals and produces a bit stream functionally separated into three layers. The first layer contains the minimum components effective for detecting the water level. It is transmitted at very low bit rate for regular monitoring. The second layer contains signals for thumb-nail video browsing. The third layer contains additional data for decoding the original video signal. These are transmitted in case of necessity. A video signal is decomposed into several bands with the three dimensional Haar transform. In this paper, optimum bands to be contained into the 1st layer are experimentally investigated considering both of water level detection and data size to be transmitted. As a result, bit rate for transmitting the first layer is reduced by 32.5% at the cost of negligible 3.7% decrease of recognition performance for one of video examples.

  6. Blind prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients from the SAMPL5 challenge.

    PubMed

    Bannan, Caitlin C; Burley, Kalistyn H; Chiu, Michael; Shirts, Michael R; Gilson, Michael K; Mobley, David L

    2016-11-01

    In the recent SAMPL5 challenge, participants submitted predictions for cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for a set of 53 small molecules. Distribution coefficients (log D) replace the hydration free energies that were a central part of the past five SAMPL challenges. A wide variety of computational methods were represented by the 76 submissions from 18 participating groups. Here, we analyze submissions by a variety of error metrics and provide details for a number of reference calculations we performed. As in the SAMPL4 challenge, we assessed the ability of participants to evaluate not just their statistical uncertainty, but their model uncertainty-how well they can predict the magnitude of their model or force field error for specific predictions. Unfortunately, this remains an area where prediction and analysis need improvement. In SAMPL4 the top performing submissions achieved a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 kcal/mol. If we anticipate accuracy in log D predictions to be similar to the hydration free energy predictions in SAMPL4, the expected error here would be around 1.54 log units. Only a few submissions had an RMSE below 2.5 log units in their predicted log D values. However, distribution coefficients introduced complexities not present in past SAMPL challenges, including tautomer enumeration, that are likely to be important in predicting biomolecular properties of interest to drug discovery, therefore some decrease in accuracy would be expected. Overall, the SAMPL5 distribution coefficient challenge provided great insight into the importance of modeling a variety of physical effects. We believe these types of measurements will be a promising source of data for future blind challenges, especially in view of the relatively straightforward nature of the experiments and the level of insight provided.

  7. Blind prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients from the SAMPL5 challenge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bannan, Caitlin C.; Burley, Kalistyn H.; Chiu, Michael; Shirts, Michael R.; Gilson, Michael K.; Mobley, David L.

    2016-11-01

    In the recent SAMPL5 challenge, participants submitted predictions for cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for a set of 53 small molecules. Distribution coefficients (log D) replace the hydration free energies that were a central part of the past five SAMPL challenges. A wide variety of computational methods were represented by the 76 submissions from 18 participating groups. Here, we analyze submissions by a variety of error metrics and provide details for a number of reference calculations we performed. As in the SAMPL4 challenge, we assessed the ability of participants to evaluate not just their statistical uncertainty, but their model uncertainty—how well they can predict the magnitude of their model or force field error for specific predictions. Unfortunately, this remains an area where prediction and analysis need improvement. In SAMPL4 the top performing submissions achieved a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 kcal/mol. If we anticipate accuracy in log D predictions to be similar to the hydration free energy predictions in SAMPL4, the expected error here would be around 1.54 log units. Only a few submissions had an RMSE below 2.5 log units in their predicted log D values. However, distribution coefficients introduced complexities not present in past SAMPL challenges, including tautomer enumeration, that are likely to be important in predicting biomolecular properties of interest to drug discovery, therefore some decrease in accuracy would be expected. Overall, the SAMPL5 distribution coefficient challenge provided great insight into the importance of modeling a variety of physical effects. We believe these types of measurements will be a promising source of data for future blind challenges, especially in view of the relatively straightforward nature of the experiments and the level of insight provided.

  8. Radon concentration levels in ground water from Toluca, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Olguin, M T; Segovia, N; Tamez, E; Alcántara, M; Bulbulian, S

    1993-03-25

    Concentration levels of 222Rn have been analysed in water samples from deep wells of the aquifers around the City of Toluca, Mexico. The 222Rn source is the decay of 226Ra within the solid matrix of the aquifer. With a half life of 1600 years the 226Ra continuously releases 222Rn to the pores, from which it diffuses into the main body of water. This paper describes the methods used for sampling and measuring solubilized and 226Ra-supported 222Rn in the water samples, in order to evaluate possible health hazards due to the presence of radon in the drinking water supplies. The relationship of 222Rn with the hydrogeologic characteristics of the zone is also described. The analytical method involves laboratory extraction of 222Rn into toluene. Alpha disintegrations of 222Rn and contributions from short-lived daughters are counted by the liquid scintillation technique. The system was calibrated using a 226Ra standard solution. Results up to 11.3 Bq/l of 222Rn were obtained in the water samples.

  9. Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

    1980-01-01

    The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

  10. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

  11. Predicting Late Winter Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Arctic Lakes Using Morphology and Landscape Metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leppi, Jason C.; Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2016-02-01

    Overwintering habitat for Arctic freshwater fish is essential, such that understanding the distribution of winter habitat quality at the landscape-scale is warranted. Adequate dissolved oxygen (DO) is a major factor limiting habitat quality in the Arctic region where ice cover can persist for 8 months each year. Here we use a mixed-effect model developed from 20 lakes across northern Alaska to assess which morphology and landscape attributes can be used to predict regional overwintering habitat quality. Across all lakes, we found that the majority of the variations in late winter DO can be explained by lake depth and littoral area. In shallow lakes (<4 m), we found evidence that additional variables such as elevation, lake area, ice cover duration, and snow depth were associated with DO regimes. Low DO regimes were most typical of shallow lakes with large littoral areas and lakes that had high DO regimes often were lakes with limited littoral areas and deeper water. Our analysis identifies metrics that relate to late winter DO regimes in Arctic lakes that can aid managers in understanding which lakes will likely provide optimum DO for overwintering habitat. Conversely, lakes which predicted to have marginal winter DO levels may be vulnerable to disturbances that could lower DO below critical thresholds to support sensitive fish. In regions where lakes are also used by humans for industrial winter water supply, such as ice-road construction for oil and gas development, these findings will be vital for the management of resources and protection of Arctic fish.

  12. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2003, Volume 1: Continuous water-level, streamflow, water-quality data, and periodic water-quality data, Water Year 2003

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hickey, Andrew C.; Kerestes, John F.; McCallum, Brian E.

    2004-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2003 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2003, including: discharge records of 163 gaging stations; stage for 187 gaging stations; precipitation for 140 gaging stations; information for 19 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 40 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 65 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 36 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data at 162 stations in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2003, including continuous water-level records of 156 ground-water wells and periodic records at 130 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia.

  13. Exploring predictions of safe operating spaces for human water use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwakkel, J. H.; Timmermans, J. S.

    2012-04-01

    In the Nature article 'A safe operating space for humanity', Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the idea of a safe space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the 'Holocene state'. Rockström et al. have identified nine earth-system processes and associated thresholds which, if crossed, are expected to generate unacceptable environmental change. Rockström et al. (2009) focus on the scientific prediction of these thresholds. Concerning the use of these boundaries for public policy, these authors limit their efforts to concluding that the evidence so far suggests that, as long as the thresholds are not crossed, humanity has the freedom to pursue long-term social and economic development. The approach advocated by Rockström et al. (2009) is plagued by two related problems: uncertainty and dynamic complexity (Molden, 2009; Brewer, 2009). The latter problem addresses the reductionist approach of Rockström et al and argues, in opposition, that the limits on each of the nine earth-system processes are co-depended and thus the safe operating space constitutes a single multi-dimensional space that can only be identified holistically. The first problem is that our current scientific knowledge and understanding of the earth system is incomplete and partly contested. A majority of the authors reacting on the global limit concept do however emphasize their relevance as "targets for policy makers". However, the two problems imply that the establishment of predicted global limits as a substantive base for public policy is meaningless. Still, the presence of scientific uncertainty and dynamic complexity and thus the omnipresence of unpredictability need not be used as an excuse to ignore the importance of a substantive grounding of these policies. In this paper, we argue and show how despite dynamic complexity and irreducible uncertainty, policies can be designed, tested, and shown to be effective in reaching broad social goals related to social and economic

  14. Development of predictive models for determining enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zaihong; Deng, Zhiqiang; Rusch, Kelly A

    2012-02-01

    The US EPA BEACH Act requires beach managers to issue swimming advisories when water quality standards are exceeded. While a number of methods/models have been proposed to meet the BEACH Act requirement, no systematic comparisons of different methods against the same data series are available in terms of relative performance of existing methods. This study presents and compares three models for nowcasting and forecasting enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches in Louisiana, USA. One was developed using the artificial neural network (ANN) in MATLAB Toolbox and the other two were based on the US EPA Virtual Beach (VB) Program. A total of 944 sets of environmental and bacteriological data were utilized. The data were collected and analyzed weekly during the swimming season (May-October) at six sites of the Holly Beach by Louisiana Beach Monitoring Program in the six year period of May 2005-October 2010. The ANN model includes 15 readily available environmental variables such as salinity, water temperature, wind speed and direction, tide level and type, weather type, and various combinations of antecedent rainfalls. The ANN model was trained, validated, and tested using 308, 103, and 103 data sets (collected in 2007, 2008, and 2009) with an average linear correlation coefficient (LCC) of 0.857 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.336. The two VB models, including a linear transformation-based model and a nonlinear transformation-based model, were constructed using the same data sets. The linear VB model with 6 input variables achieved an LCC of 0.230 and an RMSE of 1.302 while the nonlinear VB model with 5 input variables produced an LCC of 0.337 and an RMSE of 1.205. In order to assess the predictive performance of the ANN and VB models, hindcasting was conducted using a total of 430 sets of independent environmental and bacteriological data collected at six Holly Beach sites in 2005, 2006, and 2010. The hindcasting results show that the ANN model is capable of

  15. Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

  16. Analysis of the impact of water level fluctuations on macrophytes in Miyun Reservoir after receiving water transferred by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, L.; Gu, H.; Lou, C. H.; Zhang, L.; Meng, Q. Y.

    2016-08-01

    As the main primary producers in aquatic ecosystems, macrophytes affect the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems, and their distribution is controlled by water depth. Miyun Reservoir in Beijing will have to experience substantial changes in water level and surface area as it begins to receive water transferred by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, which will have an adverse impact on the macrophytes growing there. In this study, a hydrodynamic model was constructed with MIKE21 and then used in a simulation in three scenarios: dry year, normal year and wet year. The results suggest that during water diversion, the annual and interannual water level fluctuations will be too significant for them to adapt and as a result, the original macrophytes in the reservoir tend to die and disappear completely. The area of the zone suitable for macrophyte growth, or suitable growth zone (SGZ), fluctuated. Restricted by the main dam and auxiliary dam to its south, the overall suitable growth zone moved toward the northeast and northwest of the reservoir, with a northeastward movement of its centroid. The distance and path of movement varied between scenarios. After the water diversion was completed, the suitable growth zone shrunk in the three scenarios. It is predicted that the macrophyte species diversity and richness of the reservoir can recover to the levels recorded before water diversion only in dry year. These results suggest that manual interventions should be implemented after water diversion to speed up the natural recovery of aquatic plant communities in Miyun Reservoir and thereby maintain the stability of the aquatic ecosystem.

  17. Prediction of water quality parameters from SAR images by using multivariate and texture analysis models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shareef, Muntadher A.; Toumi, Abdelmalek; Khenchaf, Ali

    2014-10-01

    Remote sensing is one of the most important tools for monitoring and assisting to estimate and predict Water Quality parameters (WQPs). The traditional methods used for monitoring pollutants are generally relied on optical images. In this paper, we present a new approach based on the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images which we used to map the region of interest and to estimate the WQPs. To achieve this estimation quality, the texture analysis is exploited to improve the regression models. These models are established and developed to estimate six common concerned water quality parameters from texture parameters extracted from Terra SAR-X data. In this purpose, the Gray Level Cooccurrence Matrix (GLCM) is used to estimate several regression models using six texture parameters such as contrast, correlation, energy, homogeneity, entropy and variance. For each predicted model, an accuracy value is computed from the probability value given by the regression analysis model of each parameter. In order to validate our approach, we have used tow dataset of water region for training and test process. To evaluate and validate the proposed model, we applied it on the training set. In the last stage, we used the fuzzy K-means clustering to generalize the water quality estimation on the whole of water region extracted from segmented Terra SAR-X image. Also, the obtained results showed that there are a good statistical correlation between the in situ water quality and Terra SAR-X data, and also demonstrated that the characteristics obtained by texture analysis are able to monitor and predicate the distribution of WQPs in large rivers with high accuracy.

  18. Sea water intrusion by sea-level rise: scenarios for the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Loáiciga, Hugo A; Pingel, Thomas J; Garcia, Elizabeth S

    2012-01-01

    This study presents a method to assess the contributions of 21st-century sea-level rise and groundwater extraction to sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Sea water intrusion is represented by the landward advance of the 10,000 mg/L iso-salinity line, a concentration of dissolved salts that renders groundwater unsuitable for human use. A mathematical formulation of the resolution of sea water intrusion among its causes was quantified via numerical simulation under scenarios of change in groundwater extraction and sea-level rise in the 21st century. The developed method is illustrated with simulations of sea water intrusion in the Seaside Area sub-basin near the City of Monterey, California (USA), where predictions of mean sea-level rise through the early 21st century range from 0.10 to 0.90 m due to increasing global mean surface temperature. The modeling simulation was carried out with a state-of-the-art numerical model that accounts for the effects of salinity on groundwater density and can approximate hydrostratigraphic geometry closely. Simulations of sea water intrusion corresponding to various combinations of groundwater extraction and sea-level rise established that groundwater extraction is the predominant driver of sea water intrusion in the study aquifer. The method presented in this work is applicable to coastal aquifers under a variety of other scenarios of change not considered in this work. For example, one could resolve what changes in groundwater extraction and/or sea level would cause specified levels of groundwater salinization at strategic locations and times.

  19. MATERNAL SELF-REPORTED DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMS AND MATERNAL CORTISOL LEVELS INTERACT TO PREDICT INFANT CORTISOL LEVELS.

    PubMed

    Khoury, Jennifer E; Gonzalez, Andrea; Levitan, Robert; Masellis, Mario; Basile, Vincenzo; Atkinson, Leslie

    2016-01-01

    Three basic findings have emerged from research on maternal depressive symptoms and offspring hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal functioning: (a) Mothers' depressive symptoms are positively associated with their offsprings' cortisol stress response, (b) numerous individual and interpersonal maternal characteristics moderate this association, and (c) maternal and infant cortisol levels are highly correlated. In combination, these findings have suggested that maternal cortisol levels may moderate the relation between maternal depressive symptoms and infant cortisol responsivity; the current study assessed this hypothesis. Participants were 297 mother-infant dyads who were recruited from the community. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed via self-report. Dyads participated in two differentially stressful infant challenges when infants were 16 and 17 months old. Mother and infant salivary cortisol was collected before and after challenges. Results indicate that maternal cortisol levels moderated associations between maternal depressive symptoms and infant cortisol levels across both challenges. Infants showed higher cortisol levels if their mothers had both higher depressive symptoms and higher cortisol levels, as compared to infants of mothers with higher depressive symptoms and lower cortisol, and to infants of mothers with lower depressive symptoms and either higher or lower cortisol levels. We discuss findings in relation to environmental and biological factors that may contribute to the intergenerational transmission of depressive symptoms.

  20. Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

    2014-01-01

    Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

  1. A mathematical model to predict the release of water-soluble drugs from HPMC matrices.

    PubMed

    Fu, X C; Wang, G P; Fu, C Y; Liang, W Q

    2004-09-01

    A mathematical model to predict the fraction of water-soluble drug released as a function of release time (t, h), HPMC concentration (CH, w/w), and volume of drug molecule (V, nm3) was derived with ranitidine hydrochloride, diltiazem hydrochloride, and ribavirin as model drugs. The model is log (M(t)/M(infinity)) = 0.5 log t-0.3322CH-0.2222V-0.2988 (n = 140, r = 0.9848), where M(t) is the amount of drug released at time t, M(infinity) is the amount of drug released over a very long time, which corresponds in principle to the initial loading, n is the number of samples, and r is the correlation coefficient. The model was validated using isoniazid and satisfactory results were obtained. The model can be used to predict the release fraction of various soluble drugs from HPMC matrices having different polymer levels.

  2. Concentrating low-level tritiated water through isotope exchange

    SciTech Connect

    Jorgensen, B.S.; Dye, R.C.; Pratt, L.R.; Gomez, M.A.; Meadows, J.E.

    2000-03-01

    Trapping of tritium on polymers with specific functional groups was investigated as a means of treating waste streams containing low levels of tritium. Chemical exchange of tritium with hydrogen on the functional group was used as the mechanism for trapping. The polymers tested include Aurorez polybenzimidazole resin beads, Chelex 100 resin beads, Duolite GT-73, microcrystalline cellulose, and polyethylenimine. The tests were performed under simulated operating conditions on water obtained from the Radioactive Liquid Waste Treatment Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Tritiated water from the Tritium Systems Test Assembly is discharged to this plant. Polyethylenimine is a water-soluble polymer that was tested using a stirred membrane cell with an ultrafiltration membrane. All of the polymers except polyethylenimine took up tritium from the water. Polybenzimidazole demonstrated the highest tritium uptake. The results are explained on the basis of the type of functional group, hydrogen bonding, and rigidity of the molecular structure of the polymer. The theoretical calculations indicate that significant isotope discrimination requires high-frequency modes with hydrogen bonding contribution and support the experimental findings. Modeling suggested trends that may lead to structures that are more efficient in trapping tritium.

  3. Predicting Homework Time Management at the Secondary School Level: A Multilevel Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to test empirical models of variables posited to predict homework time management at the secondary school level. Student- and class-level predictors of homework time management were analyzed in a survey of 1895 students from 111 classes. Most of the variance in homework time management occurred at the student level,…

  4. Remotely mapping river water quality using multivariate regression with prediction validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stork, Chris L.; Autrey, Bradley C.

    2005-09-01

    Remote spectral sensing offers an attractive means of mapping river water quality over wide spatial regions. While previous research has focused on development of spectral indices and models to predict river water quality based on remote images, little attention has been paid to subsequent validation of these predictions. To address this oversight, we describe a retrospective analysis of remote, multispectral Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) images of the Ohio River and its Licking River and Little Miami River tributaries. In conjunction with the CASI acquisitions, ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity were made for a small set of locations in the Ohio River. Partial least squares regression models relating the remote river images to ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity for the Ohio River were developed. Employing these multivariate models, chlorophyll-a concentrations and turbidity levels were predicted in river pixels lacking ground truth measurements, generating detailed estimated water quality maps. An important but often neglected step in the regression process is to validate prediction results using a spectral residual statistic. For both the chlorophyll-a and turbidity regression models, a spectral residual value was calculated for each river pixel and compared to the associated statistical confidence limit for the model. These spectral residual statistic results revealed that while the chlorophyll-a and turbidity models could validly be applied to a vast majority of Ohio River and Licking River pixels, application of these models to Little Miami River pixels was inappropriate due to an unmodeled source of spectral variation.

  5. Remotely mapping river water quality using multivariate regression with prediction validation.

    SciTech Connect

    Stork, Christopher Lyle; Autry, Bradley C.

    2005-07-01

    Remote spectral sensing offers an attractive means of mapping river water quality over wide spatial regions. While previous research has focused on development of spectral indices and models to predict river water quality based on remote images, little attention has been paid to subsequent validation of these predictions. To address this oversight, we describe a retrospective analysis of remote, multispectral Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) images of the Ohio River and its Licking River and Little Miami River tributaries. In conjunction with the CASI acquisitions, ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity were made for a small set of locations in the Ohio River. Partial least squares regression models relating the remote river images to ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity for the Ohio River were developed. Employing these multivariate models, chlorophyll-a concentrations and turbidity levels were predicted in river pixels lacking ground truth measurements, generating detailed estimated water quality maps. An important but often neglected step in the regression process is to validate prediction results using a spectral residual statistic. For both the chlorophyll-a and turbidity regression models, a spectral residual value was calculated for each river pixel and compared to the associated statistical confidence limit for the model. These spectral residual statistic results revealed that while the chlorophyll-a and turbidity models could validly be applied to a vast majority of Ohio River and Licking River pixels, application of these models to Little Miami River pixels was inappropriate due to an unmodeled source of spectral variation.

  6. Plant physiological models of heat, water and photoinhibition stress for climate change modelling and agricultural prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolas, B.; Gilbert, M. E.; Paw U, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models are based upon well understood steady state photosynthetic physiology - the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model (FvCB). However, representations of physiological stress and damage have not been successfully integrated into SVAT models. Generally, it has been assumed that plants will strive to conserve water at higher temperatures by reducing stomatal conductance or adjusting osmotic balance, until potentially damaging temperatures and the need for evaporative cooling become more important than water conservation. A key point is that damage is the result of combined stresses: drought leads to stomatal closure, less evaporative cooling, high leaf temperature, less photosynthetic dissipation of absorbed energy, all coupled with high light (photosynthetic photon flux density; PPFD). This leads to excess absorbed energy by Photosystem II (PSII) and results in photoinhibition and damage, neither are included in SVAT models. Current representations of photoinhibition are treated as a function of PPFD, not as a function of constrained photosynthesis under heat or water. Thus, it seems unlikely that current models can predict responses of vegetation to climate variability and change. We propose a dynamic model of damage to Rubisco and RuBP-regeneration that accounts, mechanistically, for the interactions between high temperature, light, and constrained photosynthesis under drought. Further, these predictions are illustrated by key experiments allowing model validation. We also integrated this new framework within the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA). Preliminary results show that our approach can be used to predict reasonable photosynthetic dynamics. For instances, a leaf undergoing one day of drought stress will quickly decrease its maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), but it won't recover to unstressed levels for several days. Consequently, cumulative effect of photoinhibition on photosynthesis can cause

  7. Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samuels, Rana

    Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall

  8. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 2, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study, using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 1 at mile 44 (kilometer 71) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 40 feet (12.2 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage of 9 feet (2.7 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised 1 foot (0.3 meter) or more within 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) of the river. The potentiometric surface may be near land surface in low-lying areas, and above land surface along the course of drainage features near the dam. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced. (Woodard-USGS)

  9. Epidemiology can help predict urban water system failures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palus, Shannon

    2014-11-01

    A broken water pipe can mean flooded streets, damaged property, disrupted traffic, and income loss for local businesses. In the summer of 2009, the water system of Los Angeles experienced an unprecedented 75 of these water main blowouts. Notably, two transmission mains burst just days apart.

  10. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-01

    SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide. U.S. Department of Defense...Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program. 224 pp. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR

  11. Screening Experiments for Removal of Low-Level Tritiated Water

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Yun Mi; Baney, Ronald; Powers, Kevin; Koopman, Ben; Tulenko, James

    2005-03-15

    Screening experiments for low levels of tritiated water (HTO) remediation based upon selective adsorption/desorption mechanisms utilizing equilibrium isotope effects have been carried out. Several organic and inorganic high surface area materials were investigated to assess their ability to selectively adsorb low concentrations of HTO. Ion-exchange resins with cation functionalities, chitosan, sodium alginate, and several inorganic media modified with metal cations exhibited promising results. Biomaterials, for example, chitosan and modified alginate, demonstrated positive results. Based on the literature and our preliminary testing, we postulate four possible mechanisms for selected tritium adsorption: hydrogen ion exchange, HTO coordination with surface cation sites, hydrogen bonding to surface basic sites, and secondary hydrogen bonding (structural water) in fine pores.

  12. Amount of leachant and water absorption levels of wood treated with borates and water repellents.

    PubMed

    Baysal, Ergun; Sonmez, Abdullah; Colak, Mehmet; Toker, Hilmi

    2006-12-01

    Wood protection efficacy of borates against biological agents, flame retardancy, and suitability to the environment is well known. Since borates can be applied to timber as water based solutions, they are preferred economically as well. Even though they are highly mobile in wood, boron compounds are widely used in timber preservation. Borates migrate in liquid and increase the hygroscopicity of wood in damp conditions. This study deals with the physical restriction of water access in wood by impregnating water repellent agents into wood to limit amount of leachant and water absorption levels of wood after boron treatment. Borates were incorporated with polyethylene glycol-400 (PEG-400) their bulking effect in wood was considered. Results indicated that the amount of leachates from wood treated with borates in PEG-400 was remarkably higher compared to those of wood treated with the aqueous solutions of borates. Water absorption (WA) levels of wood treated with aqueous solutions of borates were higher than those of their treated samples with the solutions in PEG-400. Secondary treatments of wood with the water repellent (WR) chemicals following borate impregnation reduced the leaching of chemicals from wood in water and also WA of the specimens were less than those of the wood treated with only borates from aqueous and PEG solutions. Styrene (St) was the most effective monomer among the other agents used in terms of immobility effect on borates and WA.

  13. Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Based Measures for English Learners at Varying English Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jennifer Sun; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of curriculum-based measures in reading for Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) at various levels of English proficiency. Third-grade Spanish-speaking EL students were screened during the fall using DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and Daze. Predictive validity was examined in relation to spring…

  14. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2001, Volume 1: Continuous water-level, streamflow, water-quality data, and periodic water-quality data, Water Year 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCallum, Brian E.; Kerestes, John F.; Hickey, Andrew C.

    2001-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2001 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2001, including: discharge records of 133 gaging stations; stage for 144 gaging stations; precipitation for 58 gaging stations; information for 19 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 17 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 76 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 27 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2001, including continuous water-level records of 159 ground-water wells and periodic records at 138 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia. Note: Historically, this report was published as a paper report. For the 1999 and subsequent water-year reports, the Water Resources Data for Georgia changed to a new, more informative and functional format on CD-ROM. The format is based on a geographic information system (GIS) user interface that allows the user to view map locations of the hydrologic monitoring stations and networks within respective river basins.

  15. Indirect effects of climate change on zinc cycling in sediments: The role of changing water levels.

    PubMed

    Nedrich, Sara M; Burton, G Allen

    2017-03-06

    Increased variability in lake and river water levels associated with changing climate, could impact the fate and effects of metals in redox sensitive sediments through the alteration of microbial communities, acid-base and redox chemistry. The objective of this study is to determine the influence of water level fluctuation on metal speciation in pore water and predict environmental risk to high carbonate systems. Using experimental microcosms with sediments collected from four metal contaminated coastal freshwater wetlands in Michigan, we conducted water level fluctuation experiments. Porewater and sediment metals (Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn) and important metal binding phases (iron-oxide speciation, acid-volatile sulfide) were quantified. In a short-term drying (seiche) experiment, there were decreases in all porewater metals upon inundation of saturated sediments. During a drought experiment, re-inundation of oxidized sediments increased porewater Cu, Zn, Mg, Ca for most sites. Porewater Zn increased upon inundation to levels exceeding the USEPA threshold for chronic toxicity. These data show the dissolution of metal carbonates and metal sulfates contributes to metal release after re-flooding. These data show we may expect increased ecological risk to organisms present in drought sensitive regions where altered hydroperiods are likely to increase metal bioavailability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  16. Quantifying the rainfall-water level fluctuation process in a geologically complex lake catchment.

    PubMed

    Elias, Dimitriou; Ierotheos, Zacharias

    2006-08-01

    Simulating hydrologic processes in geologically complex environments is a difficult scientific task since it incorporates high level of uncertainty. Many studies have attempted to accurately quantify the rainfall-water level elevation relationship in freshwater bodies so as to predict flooding and drought events. For this purpose several types of models have been implemented including distributed, black box and conceptual models that often provide efficient results, depending on the availability of reliable data as well as on the level of understanding of the system. Nevertheless, in the particular effort, three different models have been used to describe the relationship between rainfall and water level elevation in Trichonis Lake during the period 1951-1997. A Transfer Function model, a Dynamic Linear Regression and a physically based model, consisting of the lake's water budget equation, its Digital Bathymetric Model and GIS algorithms. These models have been tested to assess their efficiency and applicability in a karstic environment and the aim of the study was to find the best modeling option for developing sustainable water management plans and establishing a flooding/drought warning system in the particular lake catchment. The results indicated that in areas with geologically complex conditions, simple, physically-based models operate better than mechanistic models which usually cannot describe adequately the complexity of the system.

  17. Simulated effects of pumping irrigation wells on ground-water levels in western Saginaw County, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoard, Christopher J.; Westjohn, David B.

    2001-01-01

    Success of agriculture in many areas of Michigan relies on withdrawal of large quantities of ground water for irrigation. In some areas of the State, water-level declines associated with large ground-water withdrawals may adversely affect nearby residential wells. Residential wells in several areas of Saginaw County, in Michigan's east-central Lower Peninsula, recently went dry shortly after irrigation of crop lands commenced; many of these wells also went dry during last year's agricultural cycle (summer 2000). In September 2000, residential wells that had been dry returned to function after cessation of pumping from large-capacity irrigation wells. To evaluate possible effects of groundwater withdrawals from irrigation wells on residential wells, the U.S. Geological Survey used hydrogeologic data including aquifer tests, water-level records, geologic logs, and numerical models to determine whether water-level declines and the withdrawal of ground water for agricultural irrigation are related. Numerical simulations based on representative irrigation well pumping volumes and a 3-month irrigation period indicate water-level declines that range from 5.3 to 20 feet, 2.8 to 12 feet and 1.7 to 6.9 feet at distances of about 0.5, 1.5 and 3 miles from irrigation wells, respectively. Residential wells that are equipped with shallow jet pumps and that are within 0.5 miles of irrigation wells would likely experience reduced yield or loss of yield during peak periods of irrigation. The actual 1 extent that irrigation pumping cause reduced function of residential wells, however, cannot be fully predicted on the basis of the data analyzed because many _other factors may be adversely affecting the yield of residential wells.

  18. A screening level fate model of organic contaminants from advanced water treatment in a potable water supply reservoir.

    PubMed

    Hawker, Darryl W; Cumming, Janet L; Neale, Peta A; Bartkow, Michael E; Escher, Beate I

    2011-01-01

    Augmentation of potable water sources by planned indirect potable reuse of wastewater is being widely considered to address growing water shortages. Environmental buffers such as lakes and dams may act as one of a series of barriers to potable water contamination stemming from micropollutants in wastewater. In South-East Queensland, Australia, current government policy is to begin indirect potable reuse of water from reverse osmosis equipped advanced water treatment plants (AWTPs) when the combined capacity of its major storages is at 40% capacity. A total of 15 organic contaminants including NDMA and bisphenol A have been publically reported as detected in recycled water from one of South-East Queensland's AWTPs, while another 98 chemicals were analysed for, but found to be below their detection limit. To assess the natural attenuation in Lake Wivenhoe, a Level III fugacity based evaluative fate model was constructed using the maximum concentrations of these contaminants detected as input data. A parallel aquivalence based model was constructed for those contaminants, such as dichloroacetic acid, dalapon and triclopyr, which are ionised in the environment of Lake Wivenhoe. A total of 247 organic chemicals of interest, including disinfection by-products, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products, xenoestrogens and industrial chemicals, were evaluated with the model to assess their potential for natural attenuation. Out of the 15 detected chemicals, trihalomethanes are expected to volatilise with concentrations in the outflow from the dam approximately 400 times lower than influent from the AWTPs. Transformation processes in water are likely to be more significant for NDMA and pharmaceuticals such as salicylic acid and paracetamol as well as for caffeine and the herbicides dalapon and triclopyr. For hydrophobic contaminants such as cholesterol and phenolic xenoestrogens such as 4-nonylphenol, 4-t-octylphenol and bisphenol A, equilibrium between water

  19. A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. The Organochlorine Pesticides Residue Levels in Karun River Water

    PubMed Central

    Behfar, Abdolazim; Nazari, Zahra; Rabiee, Mohammad Hassan; Raeesi, Gholamreza; Oveisi, Mohammad Reza; Sadeghi, Nafiseh; Jannat, Behrooz

    2013-01-01

    Background The organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are among the most commonly used in water streams around the world. Most of these contaminants are highly hydrophobic and persist in sediments of rivers and lakes. Studies have suggested that OCPs may affect the normal function of the human and wildlife endocrine systems. Objectives The aim of this study is to determine the concentrations of selected organochlorine pesticides residues [OP'DDT, PP'DDT, alderin, dieldrin, heptachlor, (α,ß,γ,δ) HCH, (α, ß) endosulfan and metoxychlor] in samples from Karun River water at Khuzestan province in Iran , by GC-µ-ECD. Materials and Methods Water was extracted with n-hexane and then purified by passing through a glass column packed with Florisil and Na2SO4, which was then eluted with ether: hexane solution v/v. Results In general, all of 12 investigated organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were detected. Regardless of the kind of OCPs, the highest OCP pollution level in Karun River were seen from August to November 2009 ranging 71.43 – 89.34 µg/L, and the lowest were seen from Dec 2010 to March 2011 at levels of 22.25 - 22.64 µg/L. The highest and lowest mean concentrations of 12 investigated pesticides were ß-Endosulfan and pp' DDT with 28.51and 0.01 µg/L respectively. Conclusions Comparison of total organochlorine pesticides residues concentration with WHO guidelines revealed that the Karun River had total OCPs residues above the probable effect level (0.2-20 µg/L, P < 0.05), which could pose a risk to aquatic life. PMID:24624185

  1. Spectral analysis of observed aquifer water level fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLin, Stephen

    2012-09-01

    A mathematical model is presented that describes small, periodic, water level perturbations in a fully screened observation well penetrating a homogeneous, isotropic, confined aquifer system. The analytical solution is formulated in terms of frequency and phase response functions that are controlled by aquifer transmissivity (T) and storage coefficient (S). Well casing storage effects are considered; however, well screen entrance losses associated with turbulence are neglected because piezometric head differences inside and outside the well are small. As the ratio of well casing radius to well screen radius (rc/rw) changes, these theoretical response functions are systematically altered. When rc/rw<1, water level fluctuations are increasingly amplified as (rc/rw)→0 and system responses associated with differences in T and S are accentuated. For (rc/rw)≥1, however, distinguishing between system responses is more complicated because well casing storage effects gradually dominate water level perturbations as rc/rw grows. Finally, in practical applications for any rc/rw value, obtaining unique estimates for T and S can be difficult in the presence of noise without the improved Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) optimization scheme developed here. Initially, a sigmoidal curve fitting algorithm and observed frequency and phase response functions are used to identify a starting estimate for T. This value is then used in the LM procedure and facilitates convergence to optimal system parameters while minimizing uncertainty. Without this approach, however, the LM scheme will not yield unique estimates. This methodology yields smaller aquifer parameters than traditional specific capacity tests, suggesting either a well bore skin effect or a scaling phenomenon similar to that reported in the literature for slug and aquifer test comparisons. Hence, this technique is probably best suited for monitoring wells where conventional aquifer test methods are impractical. This approach is

  2. A predictive model for the release of slightly water-soluble drugs from HPMC matrices.

    PubMed

    Fu, X C; Wang, G P; Wang, Y H; Liang, W Q

    2004-08-01

    A model to predict the fraction of slightly water-soluble drug released as a function of release time (t, h), HPMC concentration (C(H), w/w), drug solubility in distilled water at 37 degrees C (C(s), g/100 mL), and volume of drug molecule (V, nm3) was derived when theophyline, tinidazole, and propylthiouracil were selected as model drugs. The model is log (M(t)/M(infinity)) = 0.8683 logt-0.1930C(s) logt + 0.5406V logt-1.227C(H) + 0.1594C(s) + 0.4423C(H)C(s) - 0.8655 (n = 130, r = 0.9969), where Mt is the amount of drug released at time t, Minfinity is the amount of drug released over a very long time, which corresponds in principle to the initial loading, n is the number of samples, and r is the correlation coefficient. The model was validated using sulfamethoxazole and satisfactory results were obtained. The model can be used to predict the release fraction of variousslightly water-soluble drugs from HPMC matrices having different polymer levels.

  3. Analysis of water-level fluctuations in Wisconsin wells

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Patterson, G.L.; Zaporozec, A.

    1987-01-01

    Long-term trends are apparent on hydrographs of wells Br-46, Mr-2S, Pt-276, Ro-3, and Ve-8. The trend of average annual water levels has been generally increasing since the late 1950's and is in general agreement with the increasing trend of precipitation. Hydrographs of well Ve-8, which has the longest period of record in Wisconsin, indicate that the generally rising trend started even earlier at the end of an extensive drought period in the 1930's.

  4. Demonstration of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) internet interface and services

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based FORTRAN computer simulation program for prediction of runoff and soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. To effectively run the WEPP model and interpret results additional software has been de...

  5. Simulated effects of water-level changes in the Mississippi River and Pokegama Reservoir on ground-water levels, Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Perry M.

    2005-01-01

    The extent of aquifer water-level changes resulting from these river, wetland, and lake water-level changes varied because of the complex hydrogeology of the study area. A 1.00-foot decline in reservoir/river water levels caused a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline in the middle aquifer near Jay Gould and Little Jay Gould Lakes of 1.09 feet and a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline of 1.00 foot in the lower aquifer near Cut-off and Blackwater Lakes. The amount and extent of ground-water-level changes in the middle and lower aquifers can be explained by the thickness, extent, and connectivity of the aquifers. Surface-water/ground-water interactions near wetlands and lakes with water levels unchanged from the calibrated model resulted in small water-table altitude differences among the simulations. Results of the ground-water modeling indicate that lowering of the reservoir and river water levels by 1.00 foot likely will not substantially affect water levels in the middle and lower aquifers.

  6. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A; Ge, Y

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH/NCI under grant

  7. Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

    1984-01-01

    The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

  8. Directly Predicting Water Quality Criteria from Physicochemical Properties of Transition Metals

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Zeng, Eddy Y.; Meng, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P.; Feng, Chenglian; Wang, Peifang; Liao, Haiqing; Chen, Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Transition metals are a group of elements widespread in aquatic environments that can be hazardous when concentrations exceeding threshold values. Due to insufficient data, criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) of only seven transition metals for protecting aquatic life have been recommended by the USEPA. Hence, it is deemed necessary to develop empirical models for predicting the threshold values of water quality criteria (WQC) for other transition metals for which insufficient information on toxic potency is available. The present study established quantitative relationships between recommended CMCs and physicochemical parameters of seven transition metals, then used the developed relationships to predict CMCs for other transition metals. Seven of 26 physicochemical parameters examined were significantly correlated with the recommended CMCs. Based on this, five of the seven parameters were selected to construct a linear free energy model for predicting CMCs. The most relevant parameters were identified through principle component analysis, and the one with the best correlation with the recommended CMCs was a combination of covalent radius, ionic radius and electron density. Predicted values were largely consistent with their toxic potency values. The present study provides an alternative approach to develop screening threshold level for metals which have insufficient information to use traditional methods. PMID:26936420

  9. Low-Level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation in South Florida.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-02-01

    Af" -Ao97 55 ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY URBANA F/6 4/2 LOWLEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE PREDICTION OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPIT-ETC(U) FEB 81 A I WATSON. R L...not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy, or decision, unless so designated by other documentation. IS. KEY WORDS ...varying meteorological cond’tions and ti: == UNCLASSIFIED of day. SECURITY CLASSIFICATIOR OF TNIS PAGE (Whven Data Etered) State Water Survey

  10. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  11. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  12. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  13. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  14. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  15. Empirical prediction of peptide octanol-water partition coefficients

    PubMed Central

    Hattotuwagama, Channa K; Flower, Darren R

    2006-01-01

    Peptides are of great therapeutic potential as vaccines and drugs. Knowledge of physicochemical descriptors, including the partition coefficient P (commonly expressed in logarithm form: logP), is useful for screening out unsuitable molecules and also for the development of predictive Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSARs). In this paper we develop a new approach to the prediction of LogP values for peptides based on an empirical relationship between global molecular properties and measured physical properties. Our method was successful in terms of peptide prediction (total r2 = 0.641). The final model consisted of 5 physicochemical descriptors (molecular weight, number of single bonds, 2D-VDW volume, 2D-VSA hydrophobic and 2D-VSA polar). The approach is peptide specific and its predictive accuracy was high. Overall, 67% of the peptides were able to be predicted within +/-0.5 log units from the experimental values. Our method thus represents a novel prediction method with proven predictive ability. PMID:17597903

  16. Reverse water-level fluctuations associated with fracture connectivity.

    PubMed

    Gellasch, Christopher A; Wang, Herbert F; Bradbury, Kenneth R; Bahr, Jean M; Lande, Lauren L

    2014-01-01

    Reverse water-level fluctuations (RWFs), a phenomenon in which water levels rise briefly in response to pumping, were detected in monitoring wells in a fractured siliciclastic aquifer system near a deep public supply well. The magnitude and timing of RWFs provide important information that can help interpret aquifer hydraulics near pumping wells. A RWF in a well is normally attributed to poroelastic coupling between the solid and fluid components in an aquifer system. In addition to revealing classical pumping-induced poroelastic RWFs, data from pressure transducers located at varying depths and distances from the public supply well suggest that the RWFs propagate rapidly through fractures to influence wells hundreds of meters from the pumping well. The rate and cycling frequency of pumping is an important factor in the magnitude of RWFs. The pattern of RWF propagation can be used to better define fracture connectivity in an aquifer system. Rapid, cyclic head changes due to RWFs may also serve as a mechanism for contaminant transport.

  17. Wheat: Its water use, production and disease detection and prediction. [Kansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanemasu, E. T. (Principal Investigator); Lenhert, D.; Niblett, C.; Manges, H.; Eversmeyer, M. G.

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Discussed in this report are: (1) the effects of wheat disease on water use and yield; and (2) the use of ERTS-1 imagery in the evaluation of wheat growth and in the detection of disease severity. Leaf area index was linearly correlated with ratios MSS4:MSS5 and MSS5:MSS6. In an area of severe wheat streak mosaic virus infected fields, correlations of ERTS-1 digital counts with wheat yields and disease severity levels were significant at the 5% level for MSS bands 4 and 5 and band ratios 4/6 and 4/7. Data collection platforms were used to gather meteorological data for the early prediction of rust severity and economic loss.

  18. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LEVELS OF HETEROTROPHIC BACTERIA AND WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN A DRINKING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conventional plating methods were used to quantify heterotrophic bacteria from a drinking water distribution system. Three media, plate count agar (PCA), R2A agar and sheep blood agar (TSA-SB) were used to determine heterotrophic plate count (HPC) levels. Grab samples were collec...

  19. A noise level prediction method based on electro-mechanical frequency response function for capacitors.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective.

  20. Responses of Water and Salt Parameters to Groundwater Levels for Soil Columns Planted with Tamarix chinensis.

    PubMed

    Xia, Jiangbao; Zhao, Ximei; Chen, Yinping; Fang, Ying; Zhao, Ziguo

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater is the main water resource for plant growth and development in the saline soil of the Yellow River Delta in China. To investigate the variabilities and distributions of soil water and salt contents at various groundwater level (GL), soil columns with planting Tamarix chinensis Lour were established at six different GL. The results demonstrated the following: With increasing GL, the relative soil water content (RWC) declined significantly, whereas the salt content (SC) and absolute soil solution concentration (CS) decreased after the initial increase in the different soil profiles. A GL of 1.2 m was the turning point for variations in the soil water and salt contents, and it represented the highest GL that could maintain the soil surface moist within the soil columns. Both the SC and CS reached the maximum levels in these different soil profiles at a GL of 1.2 m. With the raise of soil depth, the RWC increased significantly, whereas the SC increased after an initial decrease. The mean SC values reached 0.96% in the top soil layer; however, the rates at which the CS and RWC decreased with the GL were significantly reduced. The RWC and SC presented the greatest variations at the medium (0.9-1.2 m) and shallow water levels (0.6 m) respectively, whereas the CS presented the greatest variation at the deep water level (1.5-1.8 m).The RWC, SC and CS in the soil columns were all closely related to the GL. However, the correlations among the parameters varied greatly within different soil profiles, and the most accurate predictions of the GL were derived from the RWC in the shallow soil layer or the SC in the top soil layer. A GL at 1.5-1.8 m was moderate for planting T. chinensis seedlings under saline groundwater conditions.

  1. Responses of Water and Salt Parameters to Groundwater Levels for Soil Columns Planted with Tamarix chinensis

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Jiangbao; Zhao, Ximei; Chen, Yinping; Fang, Ying; Zhao, Ziguo

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater is the main water resource for plant growth and development in the saline soil of the Yellow River Delta in China. To investigate the variabilities and distributions of soil water and salt contents at various groundwater level (GL), soil columns with planting Tamarix chinensis Lour were established at six different GL. The results demonstrated the following: With increasing GL, the relative soil water content (RWC) declined significantly, whereas the salt content (SC) and absolute soil solution concentration (CS) decreased after the initial increase in the different soil profiles. A GL of 1.2 m was the turning point for variations in the soil water and salt contents, and it represented the highest GL that could maintain the soil surface moist within the soil columns. Both the SC and CS reached the maximum levels in these different soil profiles at a GL of 1.2 m. With the raise of soil depth, the RWC increased significantly, whereas the SC increased after an initial decrease. The mean SC values reached 0.96% in the top soil layer; however, the rates at which the CS and RWC decreased with the GL were significantly reduced. The RWC and SC presented the greatest variations at the medium (0.9–1.2 m) and shallow water levels (0.6 m) respectively, whereas the CS presented the greatest variation at the deep water level (1.5–1.8 m).The RWC, SC and CS in the soil columns were all closely related to the GL. However, the correlations among the parameters varied greatly within different soil profiles, and the most accurate predictions of the GL were derived from the RWC in the shallow soil layer or the SC in the top soil layer. A GL at 1.5–1.8 m was moderate for planting T. chinensis seedlings under saline groundwater conditions. PMID:26730602

  2. Coastal retreat and improved water quality mitigate losses of seagrass from sea level rise.

    PubMed

    Saunders, Megan I; Leon, Javier; Phinn, Stuart R; Callaghan, David P; O'Brien, Katherine R; Roelfsema, Chris M; Lovelock, Catherine E; Lyons, Mitchell B; Mumby, Peter J

    2013-08-01

    The distribution and abundance of seagrass ecosystems could change significantly over the coming century due to sea level rise (SLR). Coastal managers require mechanistic understanding of the processes affecting seagrass response to SLR to maximize their conservation and associated provision of ecosystem services. In Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, vast seagrass meadows supporting populations of sea turtles and dugongs are juxtaposed with the multiple stressors associated with a large and rapidly expanding human population. Here, the interactive effects of predicted SLR, changes in water clarity, and land use on future distributions of seagrass in Moreton Bay were quantified. A habitat distribution model of present day seagrass in relation to benthic irradiance and wave height was developed which correctly classified habitats in 83% of cases. Spatial predictions of seagrass and presence derived from the model and bathymetric data were used to initiate a SLR inundation model. Bathymetry was iteratively modified based on SLR and sedimentary accretion in seagrass to simulate potential seagrass habitat at 10 year time steps until 2100. The area of seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 under a scenario of SLR of 1.1 m. A scenario including the removal of impervious surfaces, such as roads and houses, from newly inundated regions, demonstrated that managed retreat of the shoreline could potentially reduce the overall decline in seagrass habitat to just 5%. The predicted reduction in area of seagrass habitat could be offset by an improvement in water clarity of 30%. Greater improvements in water clarity would be necessary for larger magnitudes of SLR. Management to improve water quality will provide present and future benefits to seagrasses under climate change and should be a priority for managers seeking to compensate for the effects of global change on these valuable habitats.

  3. Statistical procedures for determination and verification of minimum reporting levels for drinking water methods.

    PubMed

    Winslow, Stephen D; Pepich, Barry V; Martin, John J; Hallberg, George R; Munch, David J; Frebis, Christopher P; Hedrick, Elizabeth J; Krop, Richard A

    2006-01-01

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water has developed a single-laboratory quantitation procedure: the lowest concentration minimum reporting level (LCMRL). The LCMRL is the lowest true concentration for which future recovery is predicted to fall, with high confidence (99%), between 50% and 150%. The procedure takes into account precision and accuracy. Multiple concentration replicates are processed through the entire analytical method and the data are plotted as measured sample concentration (y-axis) versus true concentration (x-axis). If the data support an assumption of constant variance over the concentration range, an ordinary least-squares regression line is drawn; otherwise, a variance-weighted least-squares regression is used. Prediction interval lines of 99% confidence are drawn about the regression. At the points where the prediction interval lines intersect with data quality objective lines of 50% and 150% recovery, lines are dropped to the x-axis. The higher of the two values is the LCMRL. The LCMRL procedure is flexible because the data quality objectives (50-150%) and the prediction interval confidence (99%) can be varied to suit program needs. The LCMRL determination is performed during method development only. A simpler procedure for verification of data quality objectives at a given minimum reporting level (MRL) is also presented. The verification procedure requires a single set of seven samples taken through the entire method procedure. If the calculated prediction interval is contained within data quality recovery limits (50-150%), the laboratory performance at the MRL is verified.

  4. Predicting the vulnerability of reservoirs to poor water quality and cyanobacterial blooms.

    PubMed

    Leigh, Catherine; Burford, Michele A; Roberts, David T; Udy, James W

    2010-08-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms in drinking water reservoirs present a major ecosystem functioning and human health issue. The ability to predict reservoir vulnerability to these blooms would provide information critical for decision making, hazard prevention and management. We developed a new, comparative index of vulnerability based on simple measures of reservoir and catchment characteristics, rather than water quality data, which were instead used to test the index's effectiveness. Testing was based on water quality data collected over a number of seasons and years from 15 drinking water reservoirs in subtropical, southeast Queensland. The index correlated significantly and strongly with algal cell densities, including potentially toxic cyanobacteria, as well as with the proportions of cyanobacteria in summer months. The index also performed better than each of the measures of reservoir and catchment characteristics alone, and as such, was able to encapsulate the physical characteristics of subtropical reservoirs, and their catchments, into an effective indicator of the vulnerability to summer blooms. This was further demonstrated by calculating the index for a new reservoir to be built within the study region. Under planned dimensions and land use, a comparatively high level of vulnerability was reached within a few years. However, the index score and the number of years taken to reach a similar level of vulnerability could be reduced simply by decreasing the percentage of grazing land cover via revegetation within the catchment. With climate change, continued river impoundment and the growing demand for potable water, our index has potential decision making benefits when planning future reservoirs to reduce their vulnerability to cyanobacterial blooms.

  5. Concurrent and Predictive Relations between Hormone Levels and Social-Emotional Functioning in Early Adolescence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nottelmann, Editha D.; And Others

    Hormone levels and changes in hormone levels were evaluated three times across a 1-year period as concurrent and predictive correlates of the socio-emotional functioning of 56 boys 10- to 14-years-old and 52 girls 9- to 14-years-old who represented the five stages of Tanner's criteria of pubertal development. The hormone measures were serum levels…

  6. Project Water Science. General Science High School Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Water Education Foundation, Sacramento, CA.

    This teacher's guide presents 12 hands-on laboratory activities for high school science classes that cover the environmental issue of water resources in California. The activities are separated into three sections. Five activities in the section on water quality address the topics of groundwater, water hardness, bottled water, water purity, and…

  7. Predicting runoff-induced pesticide input in agricultural sub-catchment surface waters: linking catchment variables and contamination.

    PubMed

    Dabrowski, James M; Peall, Sue K C; Van Niekerk, Adriaan; Reinecke, Adriaan J; Day, Jenny A; Schulz, Ralf

    2002-12-01

    An urgent need exists for applicable methods to predict areas at risk of pesticide contamination within agricultural catchments. As such, an attempt was made to predict and validate contamination in nine separate sub-catchments of the Lourens River, South Africa, through use of a geographic information system (GIS)-based runoff model, which incorporates geographical catchment variables and physicochemical characteristics of applied pesticides. We compared the results of the prediction with measured contamination in water and suspended sediment samples collected during runoff conditions in tributaries discharging these sub-catchments. The most common insecticides applied and detected in the catchment over a 3-year sampling period were azinphos-methyl (AZP), chlorpyrifos (CPF) and endosulfan (END). AZP was predominantly found in water samples, while CPF and END were detected at higher levels in the suspended particle samples. We found positive (p < 0.002) correlations between the predicted average loss and the concentrations of the three insecticides both in water and suspended sediments (r between 0.87 and 0.94). Two sites in the sub-catchment were identified as posing the greatest risk to the Lourens River mainstream. It is assumed that lack of buffer strips, presence of erosion rills and high slopes are the main variables responsible for the high contamination at these sites. We conclude that this approach to predict runoff-related surface water contamination may serve as a powerful tool for risk assessment and management in South African orchard areas.

  8. Spatiotemporal models for predicting high pollen concentration level of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-06-01

    Corylus, Alnus, and Betula trees are among the most important sources of allergic pollen in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and have a large impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Therefore, it is important to predict high pollen concentrations, both in time and space. The aim of this study was to create and evaluate spatiotemporal models for predicting high Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels, based on gridded meteorological data. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 11 cities in Poland and gathered, depending on the site, between 2 and 16 years of measurements. According to the first allergy symptoms during exposure, a high pollen count level was established for each taxon. An optimizing probability threshold technique was used for mitigation of the problem of imbalance in the pollen concentration levels. For each taxon, the model was built using a random forest method. The study revealed the possibility of moderately reliable prediction of Corylus and highly reliable prediction of Alnus and Betula high pollen concentration levels, using preprocessed gridded meteorological data. Cumulative growing degree days and potential evaporation proved to be two of the most important predictor variables in the models. The final models predicted not only for single locations but also for continuous areas. Furthermore, the proposed modeling framework could be used to predict high pollen concentrations of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, and other taxa, and in other countries.

  9. Spatiotemporal models for predicting high pollen concentration level of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula.

    PubMed

    Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-06-01

    Corylus, Alnus, and Betula trees are among the most important sources of allergic pollen in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and have a large impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Therefore, it is important to predict high pollen concentrations, both in time and space. The aim of this study was to create and evaluate spatiotemporal models for predicting high Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels, based on gridded meteorological data. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 11 cities in Poland and gathered, depending on the site, between 2 and 16 years of measurements. According to the first allergy symptoms during exposure, a high pollen count level was established for each taxon. An optimizing probability threshold technique was used for mitigation of the problem of imbalance in the pollen concentration levels. For each taxon, the model was built using a random forest method. The study revealed the possibility of moderately reliable prediction of Corylus and highly reliable prediction of Alnus and Betula high pollen concentration levels, using preprocessed gridded meteorological data. Cumulative growing degree days and potential evaporation proved to be two of the most important predictor variables in the models. The final models predicted not only for single locations but also for continuous areas. Furthermore, the proposed modeling framework could be used to predict high pollen concentrations of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, and other taxa, and in other countries.

  10. Prediction of noise levels and annoyance from aircraft run-ups at Vancouver International Airport.

    PubMed

    Scherebnyj, Katrina; Hodgson, Murray

    2007-10-01

    Annoyance complaints resulting from engine run-ups have been increasing at Vancouver International Airport for several years. To assist the Airport in managing run-up noise levels, a prediction tool based on a Green's function parabolic equation (GFPE) model has been consolidated, evaluated, and applied. It was extended to include more realistic atmospheric and ground input parameters. Measurements were made of the noise-radiation characteristics of a CRJ200 jet aircraft. The GFPE model was validated by comparing predictions with results in the literature. A sensitivity analysis showed that predicted levels are relatively insensitive to small variations in geometry and ground impedance, but relatively sensitive to variations in wind speed, atmosphere type, and aircraft heading and power setting. Predicted noise levels were compared with levels measured at noise monitoring terminals. For the four cases for which all input information was available, agreement was within 10 dBA. For events for which some information had to be estimated, predictions were within 20 dBA. The predicted annoyance corresponding to the run-up events considered ranged from 1.8% to 9.5% of people awoken, suggesting that noise complaints can be expected.

  11. Predicting the effect of livestock inputs of E. coli on microbiological compliance of bathing waters.

    PubMed

    Vinten, Andrew J A; Lewis, D R; McGechan, M; Duncan, A; Aitken, M; Hill, C; Crawford, C

    2004-01-01

    Three alternative approaches to predicting delivery of faecal indicators from livestock sources to surface water in the catchment of the River Irvine, Ayrshire, Scotland, are described. These are a soil transport model which assumes all E. coli are transported through the soil, a regression model using observed E. coli concentrations in surface waters, and a distributed catchment model (PAMIMO). Each of these is linked to a simple group of equations describing inputs of E. coli from livestock to land, transport and inactivation in the river Irvine and mixing and inactivation in the sea. The models predict E. coli content of bathing water for Irvine beach. The regression model gives the best predictions of bathing water quality. The low values predicted by the soil transport model suggests that preventing surface runoff of faecal indicators from livestock would provide an adequate solution to the problem of bathing water contamination.

  12. Predicting energy requirement with pedometer-determined physical-activity level in women with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

    PubMed Central

    Farooqi, Nighat; Slinde, Frode; Carlsson, Maine; Håglin, Lena; Sandström, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Background In clinical practice, in the absence of objective measures, simple methods to predict energy requirement in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) needs to be evaluated. The aim of the present study was to evaluate predicted energy requirement in females with COPD using pedometer-determined physical activity level (PAL) multiplied by resting metabolic rate (RMR) equations. Methods Energy requirement was predicted in 18 women with COPD using pedometer-determined PAL multiplied by six different RMR equations (Harris–Benedict; Schofield; World Health Organization; Moore; Nordic Nutrition Recommendations; Nordenson). Total energy expenditure (TEE) was measured by the criterion method: doubly labeled water. The predicted energy requirement was compared with measured TEE using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Bland–Altman analyses. Results The energy requirement predicted by pedometer-determined PAL multiplied by six different RMR equations was within a reasonable accuracy (±10%) of the measured TEE for all equations except one (Nordenson equation). The ICC values between the criterion method (TEE) and predicted energy requirement were: Harris–Benedict, ICC =0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23–0.89; Schofield, ICC =0.71, 95% CI 0.21–0.89; World Health Organization, ICC =0.74, 95% CI 0.33–0.90; Moore, ICC =0.69, 95% CI 0.21–0.88; Nordic Nutrition Recommendations, ICC =0.70, 95% CI 0.17–0.89; and Nordenson, ICC =0.40, 95% CI −0.19 to 0.77. Bland–Altman plots revealed no systematic bias for predicted energy requirement except for Nordenson estimates. Conclusion For clinical purposes, in absence of objective methods such as doubly labeled water method and motion sensors, energy requirement can be predicted using pedometer-determined PAL and common RMR equations. However, for assessment of nutritional status and for the purpose of giving nutritional treatment, a clinical judgment is important regarding when

  13. Ground-water levels near the top of the water-table mound, western Cape Cod, Massachusetts, 2002-04

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Massey, Andrew J.; Carlson, Carl S.; LeBlanc, Denis R.

    2006-01-01

    In January 2002 the U.S. Geological Survey began continuous water-level monitoring in three wells in the vicinity of the Southeast Ranges of Camp Edwards, near the Impact Area of the Massachusetts Military Reservation on Cape Cod. The purpose of this effort was to examine how water levels at sites with different unsaturated-zone thicknesses near the top of the water-table mound beneath western Cape Cod are affected by temporally variable recharge from precipitation, which is the sole source of water to the sand and gravel aquifer. The depths to water at the well sites are about 18, 30, and 101 feet below land surface. This report presents the first 3 years of water-level records and an estimate of aquifer recharge calculated from climatological measurements by the Jensen and Haise method and the Thornthwaite method. The water levels in the three wells varied temporally by about 4.5 feet during the study period. A comparison of the water levels with those measured in a nearby monitoring well with about 42 years of monthly measurements indicates that the 3-year monitoring period included the lowest water levels on western Cape Cod since the drought of the 1960's. The response of water levels to recharge was related to the depth to water. Water levels in the two wells with shallow depths to water responded quickly (within hours or days) to recharge, whereas the water-level response in the well with the greatest depth to water often lagged the recharge event by a month or more. The variations in the water levels among the wells changed as the location of the top of the water-table mound moved with the changing water-table altitude.

  14. Inflow, outflow, and water levels in Lake Michigan during the last part of the Wisconsin glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, L.; Attig, J.W. ); Mickelson, D.M. . Dept. of Geology and Geophysics)

    1992-01-01

    Between about 14,000 and 10,000 B.P., water flowed to and from Lake Michigan through several channels connected with adjacent glacial lakes and the Mississippi basin. Inflow and outflow depend on lake-level fluctuations, but no known lake-level chronology for the Lake Michigan basin explains all the supposed facts. Several kinds of information can be use to construct such a chronology: elevations of beaches, elevations and locations of outlets, ice-margin positions, till stratigraphy, and glacial history relative to outlets and lake-sediment distribution. If the crustal rebound predicted by J.A. Clark (bracketed by glacial Lake Wisconsin and Door Peninsula water planes) is used as the basis for a lake-level chronology, lake elevations would have been much higher than previously recognized, beaches previously thought to be late glacial must be middle Holocene, and the predicted sequence of spillways from glacial Lake Oshkosh, in the Green Bay basin, to Lake Michigan seems incompatible with the till stratigraphy of the region. On the other hand, a hinge line model such as proposed by J.W. Goldthwait allows far less rebound than is required by their knowledge of present-day rebound and by the rebound interpreted from shore features of glacial Lake Wisconsin. Therefore major flaws exist in their understanding of the glacial chronology and stratigraphy, of the glacial lake deposits, or of the crustal rebound; the reconstructed of inflow and outflow will remain uncertain until these conflicts are resolved.

  15. Serum Creatinine Versus Plasma Methotrexate Levels to Predict Toxicities in Children Receiving High-dose Methotrexate.

    PubMed

    Tiwari, Priya; Thomas, M K; Pathania, Subha; Dhawan, Deepa; Gupta, Y K; Vishnubhatla, Sreenivas; Bakhshi, Sameer

    2015-01-01

    Facilities for measuring methotrexate (MTX) levels are not available everywhere, potentially limiting administration of high-dose methotrexate (HDMTX). We hypothesized that serum creatinine alteration after HDMTX administration predicts MTX clearance. Overall, 122 cycles in 50 patients of non-Hodgkin lymphoma or acute lymphoblastic leukemia aged ≤18 years receiving HDMTX were enrolled prospectively. Plasma MTX levels were measured at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours; serum creatinine was measured at baseline, 24, 48, and 72 hours. Correlation of plasma MTX levels with creatinine levels and changes in creatinine from baseline (Δ creatinine) were evaluated. Plasma MTX levels at 72 hours showed positive correlation with serum creatinine at 48 hours (P = .011) and 72 hours (P = .013) as also Δ creatinine at 48 hours (P = .042) and 72 hours (P = .045). However, cut-off value of either creatinine or Δ creatinine could not be established to reliably predict delayed MTX clearance. Greater than 50% Δ creatinine at 48 and 72 hours significantly predicted grade 3/4 leucopenia (P = .036 and P = .001, respectively) and thrombocytopenia (P = .012 and P = .009, respectively) but not mucositis (P = .827 and P = .910, respectively). Delayed MTX elimination did not predict any grade 3/4 toxicity. In spite of demonstration of significant correlation between serum creatinine and Δ creatinine with plasma MTX levels at 72 hours, cut-off value of either variable to predict MTX delay could not be established. Thus, either of these cannot be used as a surrogate for plasma MTX estimation. Interestingly, Δ creatinine effectively predicted hematological toxicities, which were not predicted by delayed MTX clearance.

  16. NOAA tsunami water level archive - scientific perspectives and discoveries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mungov, G.; Eble, M. C.; McLean, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Currently, NGDC archives and processes high-resolution data recorded by the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) network, the coastal-tide-gauge network from the National Ocean Service (NOS) as well as tide-gauge data recorded by all gauges in the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers' (TWCs) regional networks. The challenge in processing these data is that the observations from the deep-ocean, Pacific Islands, Alaska region, and United States West and East Coasts display commonalities, but, at the same time, differ significantly, especially when extreme events are considered. The focus of this work is on how time integration of raw observations (10-seconds to 1-minute) could mask extreme water levels. Analysis of the statistical and spectral characteristics obtained from records with different time step of integration will be presented. Results show the need to precisely calibrate the despiking procedure against raw data due to the significant differences in the variability of deep-ocean and coastal tide-gauge observations. It is shown that special attention should be drawn to the very strong water level declines associated with the passage of the North Atlantic cyclones. Strong changes for the deep ocean and for the West Coast have implications for data quality but these same features are typical for the East Coast regime.

  17. Uncertainty estimation of water levels for the Mitch flood event in Tegucigalpa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes Andino, D. C.; Halldin, S.; Lundin, L.; Xu, C.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left a devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras. Simulation of elevated water surfaces provides a good way to understand the hydraulic mechanism of large flood events. In this study the one-dimensional HEC-RAS model for steady flow conditions together with the two-dimensional Lisflood-fp model were used to estimate the water level for the Mitch event in the river reaches at Tegucigalpa. Parameters uncertainty of the model was investigated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework. Because of the extremely large magnitude of the Mitch flood, no hydrometric measurements were taken during the event. However, post-event indirect measurements of discharge and observed water levels were obtained in previous works by JICA and USGS. To overcome the problem of lacking direct hydrometric measurement data, uncertainty in the discharge was estimated. Both models could well define the value for channel roughness, though more dispersion resulted from the floodplain value. Analysis of the data interaction showed that there was a tradeoff between discharge at the outlet and floodplain roughness for the 1D model. The estimated discharge range at the outlet of the study area encompassed the value indirectly estimated by JICA, however the indirect method used by the USGS overestimated the value. If behavioral parameter sets can well reproduce water surface levels for past events such as Mitch, more reliable predictions for future events can be expected. The results acquired in this research will provide guidelines to deal with the problem of modeling past floods when no direct data was measured during the event, and to predict future large events taking uncertainty into account. The obtained range of the uncertain flood extension will be an outcome useful for decision makers.

  18. Development of an integrated method for long-term water quality prediction using seasonal climate forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Jaepil; Shin, Chang-Min; Choi, Hwan-Kyu; Kim, Kyong-Hyeon; Choi, Ji-Yong

    2016-10-01

    The APEC Climate Center (APCC) produces climate prediction information utilizing a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. In this study, four different downscaling methods, in accordance with the degree of utilizing the seasonal climate prediction information, were developed in order to improve predictability and to refine the spatial scale. These methods include: (1) the Simple Bias Correction (SBC) method, which directly uses APCC's dynamic prediction data with a 3 to 6 month lead time; (2) the Moving Window Regression (MWR) method, which indirectly utilizes dynamic prediction data; (3) the Climate Index Regression (CIR) method, which predominantly uses observation-based climate indices; and (4) the Integrated Time Regression (ITR) method, which uses predictors selected from both CIR and MWR. Then, a sampling-based temporal downscaling was conducted using the Mahalanobis distance method in order to create daily weather inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Long-term predictability of water quality within the Wecheon watershed of the Nakdong River Basin was evaluated. According to the Korean Ministry of Environment's Provisions of Water Quality Prediction and Response Measures, modeling-based predictability was evaluated by using 3-month lead prediction data issued in February, May, August, and November as model input of SWAT. Finally, an integrated approach, which takes into account various climate information and downscaling methods for water quality prediction, was presented. This integrated approach can be used to prevent potential problems caused by extreme climate in advance.

  19. Evaluation of Rock Mass Responses Using High Resolution Water-level Tiltmeter Arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, J. S.; Wang, H. F.; Fratta, D.; Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.; Geox^Tm

    2010-12-01

    External forces act on the surface of the earth and produce deformation across all spatial and temporal scales. This research study focuses on the deformation evaluation of the rock-mass subjected to tidal, earthquake and surface forces. The events are monitored over horizontal distances of over 100 meters with tilt measurement arrays with a resolution of 10-8 radians. These measurements are obtained from hydrostatic leveling system (HLS) arrays that have been installed in the LaFarge mine in North Aurora, IL by Fermilab. Each sensor in the array is equipped with a water-filled reservoir beneath a capacitor. The amount of water in the reservoir is calculated as a function of the measured capacitance. Individual sensors are connected in a closed system via a water and air line. As the host rock expands and contracts sensors are raised relative to another and water is displaced. The water level in each reservoir is sent to a computer in the mine and recorded. In order to measure the tilt of the rock between two points, the difference in water levels between adjacent sensors is computed. The difference between the end sensors is also calculated to determine the larger-scale tilt of the array. The tiltmeters in LaFarge mine are supported by concrete pedestals installed on the floor of the drift. In the Homestake mine the tiltmeters are placed on similar pedestals, as well as platforms made of artificial wood decking. These platforms are fixed to the wall of the drift with a rock bolt. Time and frequency domain analyses were performed on time series ranging from hours to six months to capture relevant time scales including the response to the 2010 Chile Earthquake (hour-long scale), the stages of the moon (month scale), Fox River floods (flooding week long scales and pressure dissipation month-long scales). By monitoring tiltmeter array responses to different forces, we aim at making predictions about the material properties of rock masses.

  20. Predicting water quality criteria for protecting aquatic life from physicochemical properties of metals or metalloids.

    PubMed

    Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Chang, Hong; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P; Wu, K Benjamin

    2013-01-02

    Metals are widely distributed pollutants in water and can have detrimental effects on some aquatic life and humans. Over the past few decades, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has published a series of criteria guidelines, which contain specific criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) for 10 metals. However, CMCs for other metals are still lacking because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing. Herein, a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) method was used to develop a set of predictive relationships, based on physical and chemical characteristics of metals, and predict acute toxicities of each species for five phyla and eight families of organisms for 25 metals or metalloids. In addition, species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) were developed as independent methods for determining predictive CMCs. The quantitative ion character-activity relationships (QICAR) analysis showed that the softness index (σp), maximum complex stability constants (log -β(n)), electrochemical potential (ΔE(0)), and covalent index (X(m)(2)r) were the minimum set of structure parameters required to predict toxicity of metals to eight families of representative organisms. Predicted CMCs for 10 metals are in reasonable agreement with those recommended previously by U.S. EPA within a difference of 1.5 orders of magnitude. CMCs were significantly related to σp (r(2) = 0.76, P = 7.02 × 10(-9)) and log -β(n) (r(2) = 0.73, P = 3.88 × 10(-8)). The novel QICAR-SSD model reported here is a rapid, cost-effective, and reasonably accurate method, which can provide a beneficial supplement to existing methodologies for developing preliminarily screen level toxicities or criteria for metals, for which little or no relevant information on the toxicity to particular classes of aquatic organisms exists.

  1. Using ground-level cosmic ray observations for automatically generating predictions of hazardous energetic particle levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorman, Lev; Pustil'Nik, Lev; Sternlieb, Abraham; Zukerman, Igor

    It is well known that in periods of great flare energetic particle (FEP) ground events, fluxes of energetic particles can be so big that memory of computers and other electronics in space may be damaged, and satellite and spacecraft operations can be seriously degraded. In these periods it is necessary to switch off some part of electronics for a few hours to protect computer memories. The problem is how to forecast exactly these dangerous phenomena. We show that exact forecasts can be made by using high-energy particles (few GeV/nucleon and higher) whose transportation from the Sun is characterized by much bigger diffusion coefficients than lower energy particles. High-energy particles arrive from the Sun much earlier (8-20 minutes after acceleration and escaping into solar wind) than the lower energy particles that damage electronics (about 30-60 minutes later). We describe here the principles and operation of automated programs ``FEP-Search-1 min'', ``FEP-Search-2 min'',and ``FEPSearch-5 min'', developed and checked in the Emilio Segre' Observatory (ESO) of the Israel Cosmic Ray Center (2025 m above sea level, Rc =10.8 GV). The determination of increasing flux is made by comparison with the intensity, averaged from 120 to 61 minutes, prior to the current one-minute data. For each minute of data the program ``FEP-Search-1 min'' is run. If the result is negative (no simultaneous increase in both channels of total intensity >= 2.5 σ1, where σ1 is the standard deviation for one minute of observation in one channel [for ESO σ1=1.4 %), start the program ``FEP-Search-2 min'', using two minute averages with σ2 = σ1 /√2, and so on. If any positive result is obtained, the ``FEP-Search'' programs check the next minute of data. If the result is again positive, automatically run the on-line the programs ``FEP-Collect'' and ``FEP-Research'' that determine the expected flux and spectrum and generate automatic alerts. These programs are described in Dorman and Zukerman

  2. Structural optimisation and input selection of an artificial neural network for river level prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leahy, Paul; Kiely, Ger; Corcoran, Gearóid

    2008-06-01

    SummaryAccurate river level prediction, necessary for reliable flood forecasting, is a difficult task due to the complexity and inherent nonlinearity of the catchment hydrological system. Although artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer advantages over mechanistic or conceptual hydrological models for river level prediction, their applicability is limited by the fact that each ANN has to be specifically optimised and trained for a particular prediction problem and suitable input vectors selected. A recently developed novel optimisation algorithm combining properties of simulated annealing and tabu search is used to arrive at an optimal ANN for the prediction of river levels 5 h in advance. The algorithm seeks to minimise the value of a cost function based on the complexity and performance of the ANN. This is done by removing inter-neuron connections and adjusting the weights of the remaining connections. The candidate inputs presented to the algorithm were: current values of river levels at the flood location and two upstream locations; the change in level over the previous 4 h at the flood point, mean sea level pressure (SLP) and the change in SLP over the previous 24 h. The optimisation removed 79% of the network connections and three of the candidate inputs, leaving the current levels at the two upstream locations and at the flood point as the only inputs. The optimised ANN was then trained using the standard backpropagation algorithm. This methodology produces an ANN of greatly reduced complexity albeit with a reduced performance compared to an unoptimised ANN trained with backpropagation only. However, it has the advantage of being generally applicable and represents an improvement over trial and error as a method of ANN structural optimisation and input selection. For this prediction problem, current levels at two upstream locations and at the flood point are the best predictors of the level at the flood point.

  3. Expanded Prediction Equations of Human Sweat Loss and Water Needs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    5) using facl 1 0.2 AD. (10) The algebraic sum of the total (dry) heat loss by radiant and convec- tive heat exchange (R C), in watts (1, 9...1982. 29. Tseng YT, Durbin P, Tzeng GH. Using fuzzy piecewise regression analysis to predict the non-linear time series of turbulent flows with

  4. Predicting impacts of increased CO₂ and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Gallant, Alisa L

    2012-07-15

    Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.

  5. Wind wave prediction in shallow water: Theory and applications

    SciTech Connect

    Cavaleri, L.; Rizzoli, P.M.

    1981-11-20

    A wind wave forecasting model is described, based upon the ray technique, which is specifically designed for shallow water areas. The model explicitly includes wave generation, refraction, and shoaling, while nonlinear dissipative processes (breaking and bottom fricton) are introduced through a suitable parametrization. The forecast is provided at a specified time and target position, in terms of a directional spectrum, from which the one-dimensional spectrum and the significant wave height are derived. The model has been used to hindcast storms both in shallow water (Northern Adriatic Sea) and in deep water conditions (Tyrrhenian Sea). The results have been compared with local measurements, and the rms error for the significant wave height is between 10 and 20%. A major problems has been found in the correct evaluation of the wind field.

  6. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  7. Hydrogeology, ground-water use, and ground-water levels in the Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schalk, Charles; Schumann, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Withdrawals of ground water in the central Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio, caused water-level declines of more than 100 feet by the 1950s. Since the 1950s, management practices have changed to reduce the withdrawals of ground water, and recovery of water levels in long-term monitoring wells in the valley has been documented. Changing conditions such as these prompted a survey of water use, streamflow conditions, and water levels in several aquifers in the central Mill Creek Valley, Hamilton and Butler Counties, Ohio. Geohydrologic information, water use, and water levels were compiled from historical records and collected during the regional survey. Data collected during the survey are presented in terms of updated geohydrologic information, water use in the study area, water levels in the aquifers, and interactions between ground water and surface water. Some of the data are concentrated at former Air Force Plant 36 (AFP36), which is collocated with the General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE) plant, and these data are used to describe geohydrology and water levels on a more local scale at and near the plant. A comparison of past and current ground-water use and levels indicates that the demand for ground water is decreasing and water levels are rising. Before 1955, most of the major industrial ground-water users had their own wells, ground water was mined from a confined surficial (lower) aquifer, and water levels were more than 100 feet below their predevelopment level. Since 1955, however, these users have been purchasing their water from the city of Cincinnati or a private water purveyor. The cities of Reading and Lockland, both producers of municipal ground-water supplies in the area, shut down their well fields within their city limits. Because the demand for ground-water supplies in the valley has lessened greatly since the 1950s, withdrawals have decreased, and, consequently, water levels in the lower aquifer are 65 to 105 feet higher than they were

  8. Prediction of Water Requirements to Replace Sweat Losses

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-10-01

    Appl Physiol. 2009; 107: 379- 388. [12] Institute of Medicine (IOM). Dietary Reference Intakes for Water, Potassium , Sodium, Chloride, and Sulfate...were determined from the change in nude body mass corrected for fluid intake and urine output, but no corrections were made for respiratory or

  9. Effects of sea-level rise on ground water flow in a coastal aquifer system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Masterson, J.P.; Garabedian, S.P.

    2007-01-01

    The effects of sea-level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density-dependent, three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea-level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea-level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea-level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

  10. Water levels and water-level changes in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan and Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifers, Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, 1971-80

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoenberg, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Water-level data suggest that (1) little variation in annual pumpage between 1971 and 1980 from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer produced generally stable water levels in that aquifer, (2) decreased annual pumpage from the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer from 1971 to 1980 caused water levels in that aquifer to rise, and (3) a greater seasonal component of pumpage from the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer than from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan produced larger and more widespread seasonal water-level declines in the Mount Simon-Hinckley than in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan, particularly during dry years.

  11. The prediction of en route noise levels for a DC-9 aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weir, Donald S.

    1988-01-01

    En route noise for advanced propfan powered aircraft has become an issue of concern for the Federal Aviation Administration. The NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) is used to demonstrate the source noise and propagation effects for an aircraft in level flight up to 35,000 feet altitude. One-third octave band spectra of the source noise, atmospheric absorption loss, and received noise are presented. The predicted maximum A-weighted sound pressure level is compared to measured data from the Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden. ANOPP is shown to be an effective tool in evaluating the en route noise characteristics of a DC-9 aircraft.

  12. 77 FR 25721 - Small Entity Compliance Guide: Bottled Water: Quality Standard: Establishing an Allowable Level...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-01

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Small Entity Compliance Guide: Bottled Water: Quality... availability of a guidance for industry entitled ``Bottled Water: Quality Standard: Establishing an Allowable... its bottled water standard of quality regulations by establishing an allowable level for...

  13. Prediction of (L)-methionine VCD spectra in the gas phase and water solution.

    PubMed

    Rode, Joanna E; Dobrowolski, Jan Cz; Sadlej, Joanna

    2013-11-21

    In this paper we provide a computational study of the l-methionine conformational landscape and VCD spectra in the gas phase and a water environment simulated by implicit PCM and the hybrid model, i.e., a combination of explicit "microsolvation" and implicit models. In the gas phase, two groups of conformers differing in H-bonding, i.e., OH···NH2 and NH···O═C, could be distinguished based solely on the IR ν(OH) and ν(NH) stretching vibrations range. On the other hand, VCD better reflected chain differences. The most stable OH···NH2 conformer was predicted to be easily detected, and the presence of two out of four NH···O═C conformers could be confirmed. Three zwitterionic methionine conformers were shown to dominate in water. Their VCD spectra, simulated within the hybrid model at the B3LYP-IEF-PCM/aug-cc-pVDZ level of theory, indicated that they could be recognized in the mixture. Use of the hybrid model is crucial for good reproduction of the hydrogen bonding pattern in the VCD spectra of methionine in water solution. However, the 1300-800 cm(-1) region of the skeleton vibrations of methionine appeared to be relatively insensitive to the model of the solvent.

  14. PREDICTIVE MODELING OF LIGHT-INDUCED MORTALITY OF ENTEROCOCCI FAECALIS IN RECREATIONAL WATERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One approach to predictive modeling of biological contamination of recreational waters involves the application of process-based approaches that consider microbial sources, hydrodynamic transport, and microbial fate. This presentation focuses on one important fate process, light-...

  15. Application of short-term water demand prediction model to Seoul.

    PubMed

    Joo, C N; Koo, J Y; Yu, M J

    2002-01-01

    To predict daily water demand for Seoul, Korea, the artificial neural network (ANN) was used. For the cross correlation, the factors affecting water demand such as maximum temperature, humidity, and wind speed as natural factors, holidays as a social factor and daily demand 1 day before were used. From the results of learning using various hidden layers and units in order to establish the structure of optimal ANN, the case of 3 hidden layers and numbers of unit with the same number of input factors showed the best result and, therefore, it was applied to seasonal water demand prediction. The performance of ANN was compared with a multiple regression method. We discuss the representation ability of the model building process and the applicability of the ANN approach for the daily water demand prediction. ANN provided reasonable results for time series prediction.

  16. Regional water table (2000) and ground-water-level changes in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins, southwestern Mojave Desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Gregory A.

    2003-01-01

    The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water systems, and consequently, water availability. During 2000, the U. S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with previous data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from about 500 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. Twenty-nine hydrographs show long-term (up to 70 years) water-level conditions throughout the basins, and 13 short-term (1996 to 2000) hydrographs show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River. In addition, a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 1998 and 2000 water-levels throughout the basins. In the Mojave River ground-water basins, water-level data showed little change from 1998 to 2000, with the exception of areas along the Mojave River. Water levels along the Mojave River were typically in decline or unchanged, with exceptions near the Hodge and the Lenwood outlet, where water levels rose in response to artificial recharge. The Morongo ground-water basin had virtually no change in water levels from 1998 to 2000, with the exception of Yucca Valley, where artificial recharge and ground-water withdrawal continues.

  17. Predicting compliance with an information-based residential outdoor water conservation program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landon, Adam C.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Kaiser, Ronald A.

    2016-05-01

    Residential water conservation initiatives often involve some form of education or persuasion intended to change the attitudes and behaviors of residential consumers. However, the ability of these instruments to change attitudes toward conservation and their efficacy in affecting water use remains poorly understood. In this investigation the authors examine consumer attitudes toward complying with a persuasive water conservation program, the extent to which those attitudes predict compliance, and the influence of environmental contextual factors on outdoor water use. Results indicate that the persuasive program was successful in developing positive attitudes toward compliance, and that those attitudes predict water use. However, attitudinal variables explain a relatively small proportion of the variance in objectively measured water use behavior. Recommendations for policy are made stressing the importance of understanding both the effects of attitudes and environmental contextual factors in behavior change initiatives in the municipal water sector.

  18. An empirical method for predicting the mixing noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, J. W.

    1984-01-01

    An empirical method for predicting the static free field source noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jet flow streams is presented. The method was developed from an extensive data base of 817 jet tests obtained from five different government and industry sources in three nations. The prediction method defines the jet noise in terms of four components which are overall power level, power spectrum level, directivity index, and relative spectrum level. The values of these noise level components are defined on a grid consisting of seven frequency parameter values (Strouhal numbers) and seven directivity angles. The value of the noise level at each of these grid points is called a noise level coordinate and was defined as a function of five jet exhaust flow state parameters which are equivalent jet velocity, equivalent jet total temperature, the velocity ratio (outer stream to inner stream), temperature ratio, and area ratio. The functions were obtained by curve fitting in a least squares sense the noise level coordinates from the data base in a five dimensional flow state space using a third order Taylor series. The noise level coordinates define the component noise levels for all frequencies and directivities through a bicubic spline function.

  19. Does Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Predict Levels of Depressive Symptoms during Emerging Adulthood?

    PubMed

    Meinzer, Michael C; Pettit, Jeremy W; Waxmonsky, James G; Gnagy, Elizabeth; Molina, Brooke S G; Pelham, William E

    2016-05-01

    Little is known about the development and course of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood among individuals with a childhood history of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The aim of this study was to examine if a history of ADHD in childhood significantly predicted depressive symptoms during emerging adulthood (i.e., ages 18-25 years), including the initial level of depressive symptoms, continued levels of depressive symptoms at each age year, and the rate of change in depressive symptoms over time. 394 participants (205 with ADHD and 189 without ADHD; 348 males and 46 females) drawn from the Pittsburgh ADHD Longitudinal Study (PALS) completed annual self-ratings of depressive symptoms between the ages of 18 and 25 years. Childhood history of ADHD significantly predicted a higher initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18, and higher levels of depressive symptoms at every age year during emerging adulthood. ADHD did not significantly predict the rate of change in depressive symptoms from age 18 to age 25. Childhood history of ADHD remained a significant predictor of initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18 after controlling for comorbid psychiatric diagnoses, but not after controlling for concurrent ADHD symptoms and psychosocial impairment. Participants with childhood histories of ADHD experienced significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms than non-ADHD comparison participants by age 18 and continued to experience higher, although not increasing, levels of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed.

  20. Decadal predictability of soil water, vegetation, and wildfire frequency over North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Stevenson, Samantha; DiNezio, Pedro; Langford, Sally

    2015-10-01

    The potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900-year-long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.3. The leading modes of simulated North American precipitation and soil water storage are characterized essentially by qualitatively similar meridional seesaw patterns associated with the activity of the westerly jet. Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades, since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability. As a result, damped persistence hindcasts following a 1st order Markov process are skillful with lead times of up to several years. This potential multi-year skill estimate is consistent with ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions. Our control simulation further suggests that decadal variations in soil water storage also affect vegetation and wildfire occurrences. The long-term potential predictability of soil water variations in combination with the slow regrowth of vegetation after major disruptions leads to enhanced predictability on decadal timescales for vegetation, terrestrial carbon stock, and fire frequency, in particular in the Southern United States (US)/Mexico region. By contrast, the prediction skill of fire frequency in the Northern US is limited to 1 year. Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions. Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate-land-vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become

  1. Development of Theoretical Methods for Predicting Solvent Effects on Reaction Rates in Supercritical Water Oxidation Processes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Tucker, manuscript in preparation. “Examination of Nonequilibrium Solvent Effects on an SN2 Reaction in Supercritical Water,” R. Behera, B...DATES COVERED Final: 7/1/99 - 12/31/02 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Development of theoretical methods for predicting solvent effects on reactions ...computational methods for predicting how reaction rate constants will vary with thermodynamic condition in supercritical water (SCW). Towards this

  2. Reducing production of taste and odor by deep-living cyanobacteria in drinking water reservoirs by regulation of water level.

    PubMed

    Su, Ming; Jia, Dongmin; Yu, Jianwei; Vogt, Rolf D; Wang, Jingshi; An, Wei; Yang, Min

    2017-01-01

    Abatement and control of algae, producing toxins and creating taste & odor (T&O) in drinking water sources, is a major challenge for water supply. In this study we proposed a strategy based on water level regulation for the control of odor-producing cyanobacteria in source water. Miyun Reservoir, the main surface water source for Beijing, has been suffering from 2-methylisoborneol (2-MIB) induced T&O problems caused by deep-living Planktothrix sp. since 2002. The biomass of deep-living Planktothrix in Miyun Reservoir was found to be mainly governed by the water depth above its sediment habitat. An algorithm for water level regulation aiming to minimize the risk for T&O in different types of reservoirs is proposed. The study demonstrates that risk for T&O can be minimized by increasing the water level in Miyun Reservoir. The high-risk area can be reduced by about 2.91% (0.61% to 5.76%) of surface area for each meter increase in the water level, when the water level is lower than 145m. More specifically, the water level needs to be raised to higher than 147.7ma.s.l. from 131.0m in order to obtain an acceptable risk level (ARL) of 10%. This management strategy to abate T&O problems is simpler and cheaper to implement compared to traditional physical, chemical and biological techniques. Moreover, it has no apparent negative impact on water quality and aquatic organisms.

  3. Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2, Effects of pumping on water levels and on water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Peter

    1984-01-01

    From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels in the southern part of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin declined more than 100 feet. These water-level declines resulted from increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The increase in municipal pumping was part of a basin-testing program designed to determine the usable quantity of ground water in storage. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines to altitudes below sea level in the main water-bearing zones. As a result, the ground-water basin would be subject to saltwater intrusion if the study-period pumpage were maintained or increased. Data indicate that saltwater intrusion has degraded the quality of the water yielded from six coastal wells. During the study period, the six coastal wells all yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 250 milligrams per liter, and four of the wells yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter. Previous investigators believed that saltwater intrusion was limited to the shallow part of the aquifer, directly adjacent to the coast. The possibility of saltwater intrusion into the deeper water-bearing deposits in the aquifer was thought to be remote because an offshore fault truncates these deeper deposits so that they lie against consolidated rocks on the seaward side of the fault. Results of this study indicate, however, that ocean water has intruded the deeper water-bearing deposits, and to a much greater extent than in the shallow part of the aquifer. Apparently the offshore fault is not an effective barrier to saltwater intrusion. No physical barriers are known to exist between the coast and the municipal well field. Therefore, if the pumping rate maintained during the basin-testing program were continued, the degraded water along the coast could move inland and contaminate the municipal supply wells. The time required for the degraded water to move from the coast to

  4. Simulated changes in water levels in the Minjur Aquifer, Riyadh area, Saudi Arabia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, J.F.; Sagaby, I.A.

    1982-01-01

    A two-dimensional finite-difference computer model of the Minjur aquifer in the Riyadh area of Saudi Arabia was developed to simulate and predict drawdown in an aquifer which, in 1979, supplied more than 80 percent of all water used in this capital area. The Minjur was modeled as a confined aquifer recharged by leakage through underlying confining beds. Pumpage was simulated for a 23-year period during which it increased from 2,160 to 220 ,000 cubic meters per day. At Riyadh, the top of the Minjur aquifer is about 1200 meters below land surface. Aquifer thickness within the 40,000-square-kilometer study area ranges from 74 to 138 meters inclusively. Values for aquifer characteristics used in the model are: transmissivity, from 0.001 to 0.0062 square meters per second; storage coefficients, 0.07 for the unconfined, and 0.0004 for the confined sectors of the model area. A value of 0.02 meters per second was used to represent the vertical conductivity of the confining bed. Predictive simulations indicate that if the Minjur aquifer in the Riyadh area is stressed by estimated future pumpages, static water-level declines ranging from 10 up to and including 90 meters, depending on location, will occur from 1980 through 1999. Simulations also demonstrated that pumping levels in the new Buwayb well field will decline substantially from 1980 through 1981. (USGS)

  5. Geographical distribution of drinking-water with high iodine level and association between high iodine level in drinking-water and goitre: a Chinese national investigation.

    PubMed

    Shen, Hongmei; Liu, Shoujun; Sun, Dianjun; Zhang, Shubin; Su, Xiaohui; Shen, Yanfeng; Han, Hepeng

    2011-07-01

    Excessive iodine intake can cause thyroid function disorders as can be caused by iodine deficiency. There are many people residing in areas with high iodine levels in drinking-water in China. The main aim of the present study was to map the geographical distribution of drinking-water with high iodine level in China and to determine the relationship between high iodine level in drinking-water and goitre prevalence. Iodine in drinking-water was measured in 1978 towns of eleven provinces in China, with a total of 28,857 water samples. We randomly selected children of 8-10 years old, examined the presence of goitre and measured their urinary iodine in 299 towns of nine provinces. Of the 1978 towns studied, 488 had iodine levels between 150 and 300 μg/l in drinking-water, and in 246 towns, the iodine level was >300 μg/l. These towns are mainly distributed along the original Yellow River flood areas, the second largest river in China. Of the 56 751 children examined, goitre prevalence was 6.3 % in the areas with drinking-water iodine levels of 150-300 μg/l and 11.0 % in the areas with drinking-water iodine >300 μg/l. Goitre prevalence increased with water and urinary iodine levels. For children with urinary iodine >1500 μg/l, goitre prevalence was 3.69 times higher than that for those with urinary iodine levels of 100-199 μg/l. The present study suggests that drinking-water with high iodine levels is distributed in eleven provinces of China. Goitre becomes more prevalent with the increase in iodine level in drinking-water. Therefore, it becomes important to prevent goitre through stopping the provision of iodised salt and providing normal drinking-water iodine through pipelines in these areas in China.

  6. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and

  7. Application of empirical predictive modeling using conventional and alternative fecal indicator bacteria in eastern North Carolina waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gonzalez, Raul; Conn, Kathleen E.; Crosswell, Joey; Noble, Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Coastal and estuarine waters are the site of intense anthropogenic influence with concomitant use for recreation and seafood harvesting. Therefore, coastal and estuarine water quality has a direct impact on human health. In eastern North Carolina (NC) there are over 240 recreational and 1025 shellfish harvesting water quality monitoring sites that are regularly assessed. Because of the large number of sites, sampling frequency is often only on a weekly basis. This frequency, along with an 18–24 h incubation time for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) enumeration via culture-based methods, reduces the efficiency of the public notification process. In states like NC where beach monitoring resources are limited but historical data are plentiful, predictive models may offer an improvement for monitoring and notification by providing real-time FIB estimates. In this study, water samples were collected during 12 dry (n = 88) and 13 wet (n = 66) weather events at up to 10 sites. Statistical predictive models for Escherichiacoli (EC), enterococci (ENT), and members of the Bacteroidales group were created and subsequently validated. Our results showed that models for EC and ENT (adjusted R2 were 0.61 and 0.64, respectively) incorporated a range of antecedent rainfall, climate, and environmental variables. The most important variables for EC and ENT models were 5-day antecedent rainfall, dissolved oxygen, and salinity. These models successfully predicted FIB levels over a wide range of conditions with a 3% (EC model) and 9% (ENT model) overall error rate for recreational threshold values and a 0% (EC model) overall error rate for shellfish threshold values. Though modeling of members of the Bacteroidales group had less predictive ability (adjusted R2 were 0.56 and 0.53 for fecal Bacteroides spp. and human Bacteroides spp., respectively), the modeling approach and testing provided information on Bacteroidales ecology. This is the first example of a set of successful statistical

  8. Using hyperspectral imagery to predict post-wildfire soil water repellency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Sarah A.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Frazier, Bruce E.; Wu, Joan Q.; Laes, Denise Y. M.

    2008-03-01

    A principal task of evaluating large wildfires is to assess fire's effect on the soil in order to predict the potential watershed response. Two types of soil water repellency tests, the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and the mini-disk infiltrometer (MDI) test, were performed after the Hayman Fire in Colorado, in the summer of 2002 to assess the infiltration potential of the soil. Remotely sensed hyperspectral imagery was also collected to map post-wildfire ground cover and soil condition. Detailed ground cover measurements were collected to validate the remotely sensed imagery and to examine the relationship between ground cover and soil water repellency. Percent ash cover measured on the ground was significantly correlated to WDPT ( r = 0.42; p-value < 0.0001), and the MDI test ( r = - 0.37; p-value < 0.0001). A Mixture Tuned Matched Filter (MTMF) spectral unmixing algorithm was applied to the hyperspectral imagery, which produced fractional cover maps of ash, soil, and scorched and green vegetation. The remotely sensed ash image had significant correlations to the water repellency tests, WDPT ( r = 0.24; p-value = 0.001), and the MDI test ( r = - 0.21; p-value = 0.005). An iterative threshold analysis was also applied to the ash and water repellency data to evaluate the relationship at increasingly higher levels of ash cover. Regression analysis between the means of grouped data: MDI time vs. ash cover data ( R2 =0.75) and vs. Ash MTMF scores ( R2 = 0.63) yielded significantly stronger relationships. From these results we found on-the-ground ash cover greater than 49% and remotely sensed ash cover greater than 33% to be indicative of strongly water repellent soils. Combining these results with geostatistical analyses indicated a spatial autocorrelation range of 15 to 40 m. Image pixels with high ash cover (> 33%), including pixels within 15 m of these pixel patches, were used to create a likelihood map of soil water repellency. This map is a good

  9. Survey of fluoride levels in vended water stations.

    PubMed

    Jadav, Urvi G; Archarya, Bhavini S; Velasquez, Gisela M; Vance, Bradley J; Tate, Robert H; Quock, Ryan L

    2014-01-01

    This study sought to measure the fluoride concentration of water derived from vended water stations (VWS) and to identify its clinical implications, especially with regard to caries prevention and fluorosis. VWS and corresponding tap water samples were collected from 34 unique postal zip codes; samples were analyzed in duplicate for fluoride concentration. Average fluoride concentration in VWS water was significantly lower than that of tap water (P < 0.001). Fluoride concentration in the VWS water ranged from <0.01 ppm to 0.04 ppm, with a mean concentration of 0.02 ppm (±0.02 ppm). Patients utilizing VWS as their primary source of drinking water may not be receiving optimal caries preventive benefits; thus dietary fluoride supplementation may be indicated. Conversely, to minimize the risk of fluorosis in infants consuming reconstituted infant formula, water from a VWS may be used.

  10. Concomitant prediction of function and fold at the domain level with GO-based profiles

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the function of newly sequenced proteins is crucial due to the pace at which these raw sequences are being obtained. Almost all resources for predicting protein function assign functional terms to whole chains, and do not distinguish which particular domain is responsible for the allocated function. This is not a limitation of the methodologies themselves but it is due to the fact that in the databases of functional annotations these methods use for transferring functional terms to new proteins, these annotations are done on a whole-chain basis. Nevertheless, domains are the basic evolutionary and often functional units of proteins. In many cases, the domains of a protein chain have distinct molecular functions, independent from each other. For that reason resources with functional annotations at the domain level, as well as methodologies for predicting function for individual domains adapted to these resources are required. We present a methodology for predicting the molecular function of individual domains, based on a previously developed database of functional annotations at the domain level. The approach, which we show outperforms a standard method based on sequence searches in assigning function, concomitantly predicts the structural fold of the domains and can give hints on the functionally important residues associated to the predicted function. PMID:23514233

  11. [A simulation model for predicting the dry matter allocation in cut lily plants under effects of substrate water potential].

    PubMed

    Dong, Yong-Yi; Li, Gang; An, Dong-Sheng; Luo, Wei-Hong

    2012-04-01

    Dry matter allocation and translocation is the base of the formation of appearance quality of ornamental plants, and strongly affected by water supply. Taking cut lily cultivar 'Sorbonne' as test material, a culture experiment of different planting dates and water supply levels was conducted in a multi-span greenhouse in Nanjing from March 2009 to January 2010 to quantitatively analyze the seasonal changes of the dry matter allocation and translocation in 'Sorbonne' plants and the effects of substrate water potential on the dry matter allocation indices for different organs (flower, stem, leaf, bulb, and root), aimed to define the critical substrate water potential for the normal growth of the cultivar, and establish a simulation model for predicting the dry matter allocation in cut lily plants under effects of substrate water potential. The model established in this study gave a good prediction on the dry mass of plant organs, with the coefficient of determination and the relative root mean square error between the simulated and measured values of the cultivar' s flower dry mass, stem dry mass, leaf dry mass, bulb dry mass, and root dry mass being 0.96 and 19.2%, 0.95 and 12.4%, 0.86 and 19.4%, 0.95 and 12.2%, and 0.85 and 31.7%, respectively. The critical water potential for the water management of cut lily could be -15 kPa.

  12. Regional water table (1996) and water-level changes in the Mojave River, and Morongo, and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins, San Bernardino County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mendez, Gregory O.; Christensen, Allen H.

    1997-01-01

    The Mojave River, the Morongo, and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins lie in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert Region of southern California. These basins supply ground water to local water districts, military bases, and private wells. The rapid growth in population in these basins, which is due, in part, to their proximity toLos Angeles, has increased the demand for water and, therefore, the need to understand the Mojave ground-water systems. Ground-water conditions for the Mojave River, the Morongo, and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins for 1996 and areas with significant changes in water levels are identified in this report. Water-level data were compiled for 632 wells in the study area during January-September 1996 to define the water- table surface and direction of ground-watermovement. These data were used to construct the water-table map included in this report. Also shown on the map are 31 hydrographs that show long-term water-level changes in the study area. Short-term water-level changes were determined and a water- level change map was made by comparing 1996 ground-water conditions to 1990-94 conditions in the Mojave ground-water basin and to 1994 conditions in the Morongo and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins. In general, ground-water levels and the direction of ground-water movement in the regional aquifer have not changed significantly since previously published maps (1995). However, the short-term water level did change at specific locations in all three ground-water basins. Water levels in the Mojave River ground-water basin had a maximum rise during the period 1992-96 of 52 feet and a maximum decline of 28. Water levels in the Morongo ground-water basin had a maximum rise of 66 feet and a maximum decline of 57 feet. The Fort Irwin ground-water basins, however, had relatively little change in water level with a maximum rise of 6 feet and a maximum decline of 8 feet. Hydrographs in the regional aquifer systemindicate a decline or, in some

  13. REDUCING ARSENIC LEVELS IN DRINKING WATER: APPROACHES AND CONSIDERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The recently promulgated Arsenic Rule will require that many new drinking water systems treat their water to remove arsenic. It has been projected that the State of Ohio will have nearly 140 community and non-community non-transient water systems in violation of the Rule. This ...

  14. Environmental assessment of drainage water impacts on water quality and eutrophication level of Lake Idku, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Ali, Elham M; Khairy, Hanan M

    2016-09-01

    Lake Idku, northern Egypt, receives large quantities of drainage water from four main discharging drains. Ecological and biological status of Lake Idku has been monitored during (autumn 2012 to summer 2013) to examine the lake water quality and eutrophication level in response to the quality as well as the source of the discharging water. Discrete water samples were collected from the lake body and the drains. Chemical analyses revealed an excessive nutrient load goes into the lake. A range of 1.4-10.6 mg nitrites/L was determined for drain waters, however a sudden increase was observed in lake and drain water samples of up to 84 and 74.5 mg/L, respectively. Reactive silicate ranged between 2.9 and 4.8 mg/L; while inorganic phosphate fluctuated between 0.2 and 0.43 mg/L. Transparency varied from 45 cm to 134 cm with better light conditions at drain sites. Biological results indicated a hyper-eutrophic status for the lake with a range of chlorophyll-a varied from a minimum of 39.9 μg/L (at Idku Drains) and a maximum of 104.2 μg/L (at El-Khairy drain). Phytoplankton community structure revealed higher abundance at lake sites compared with the drains. Maximum phytoplankton density was detected during summer with the dominance of Bacilariophyceae (e.g. Cyclotella meneghiniana, Cyclotella comate, Melosira varians) followed by Chlorophycean taxon (e.g. Scenedesmus dimorphus, S. bijuga and Crucigenia tetrapedia). Five indices were applied to evaluate the water quality of the lake. Diversity Index (DI) indicated slight to light pollution along all sites; while Sapropic Index (SI) indicated slight pollution with acceptable oxygen conditions and an availability of sensitive species. Palmer Index (PI) gave a strong evidence of high organic pollution at some sites in the lake, while Generic Diatom Index (GDI) revealed that levels of pollution varied from average to strong. Trophic Index (TI), suggest that there are an obvious signs of eutrophication in the lake.

  15. Predicting the molecular shape of polysaccharides from dynamic interactions with water.

    PubMed

    Almond, Andrew; Sheehan, John K

    2003-04-01

    How simple monosaccharides, once polymerized, become the basis for structural materials remains a mystery. A framework is developed to investigate the role of water in the emergence of dynamic structure in polysaccharides, using the important beta(1-->4) linkage as an example. This linkage is studied within decasaccharide fragments of cellulose, chitin, mannan, xylan, and hyaluronan, using molecular simulations in the presence of explicit water solvent. Although cellulose, mannan, chitin, and xylan are chemically similar, their intramolecular hydrogen-bond dynamics and interaction with water are predicted to differ. Cellulose, mannan, and chitin favor relatively static intramolecular hydrogen bonds, xylan prefers dynamic water bridges, and multiple water configurations are predicted at the beta(1-->4) linkages of hyaluronan. With such a variety of predicted dynamics, the hypothesis that the beta(1-->4) linkage is stabilized by intramolecular hydrogen bonds was rejected. Instead, it is proposed that favored molecular configurations are consistent with maximum rotamer and water degrees of freedom, explaining observations made previously by X-ray diffraction. Furthermore, polysaccharides predicted to be conformationally restricted in simulations (cellulose, chitin, and mannan) prefer the solid state in reality, even as oligosaccharides. Those predicted to be more flexible (xylan and hyaluronan) are known to be soluble, even as high polymers. Therefore an intriguing correlation between chemical composition, water organization, polymer properties, and biological function is proposed.

  16. Estimating Impaired Waters on a County Level for Public Health Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water quality for ...

  17. Predicting soil and water acidification: proceedings of a workshop

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, D.W.

    1985-01-01

    A three-day workshop was held at the Hilton Hotel in Knoxville, Tennessee on March 27-29, 1984, preceded by a one-day tour of sites at or near ORNL. Funding for the workshop was provided by the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One of the goals of this workshop was to develop a consensus among the participant as to sensitivity criteria for acid deposition effects on both soils and surface waters. As the meeting evolved, the workshop participants spent most of their time in a very productive discussion of important processes and hypotheses regarding soil and water acidification, primarily from the theoretical standpoint, using empirical data to illustrate specific points. Only in the afternoon of the last day were sensitivity criteria as such as discussed, but all of the preceding discussions clearly related to this issue as well. The workshop discussions, including sensitivity criteria, are summarized in this document. A major highlight of this workshop was a meeting of minds among aquatic and terrestrial scientists as to important mechanisms for surface water acidification. This paved the way for assessment activities, probably is association with modeling efforts. No such consensus or knowledge is available for forest effects, however, because the important mechanisms of forest effects are not known. A concensus was reached as to appropriate sensitivity criteria for soil acidification and aluminum mobilization but there was no consensus as to whether these processes in themselves are responsible for reported widespread forest dieback and decline. Thus, assigning forest effects sensitivity criteria at this time would be premature. Two major areas of research were identified as most in need of further research: nitrogen cycling and soil weathering.

  18. The effects of sea-level rise on water quality in coastal floodplain sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Vanessa; Johnston, Scott; Burton, Edward; Bush, Richard; Sullivan, Leigh; Slavich, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Sea level has risen approximately 1.2 mm/year over the last 100 years (Hennessy et al. 2004) and is predicted to rise up to 80 cm by 2100 relative to 1990 sea levels (IPCC 2007). The number of extreme events related to sea level such as higher sea levels and increased inter-annual variability have also increased in frequency in the same time period (Hennessy et al. 2004). Globally, large areas of coastal and estuarine floodplains are underlain by sulfidic sediments and acid sulfate soils (ASS). These sediments frequently contain high concentrations of acidity and trace metals. A significant portion of the stored acidity occurs in the form of exchangeable and hydrolysable acidic metal cations such as Al and Fe. Watertables in these environments are often close to the surface and intercepted by relatively shallow drains. Due to their low elevation and locations, these floodplains are highly susceptible to pulses of saline water caused by saltwater intrusion, storm surge and rising sea levels. Construction of extensive drainage systems has further increased the susceptibility of the floodplain to seawater inundation by increasing connectivity to the estuarine channel. This risk is likely to increase in the future with predicted increases in sea level and extreme events due to climate change. This study uses both batch experiments to determine the effects of increasing ionic strength on exchange processes and trace metal desorption in oxidised floodplain sediments and sulfidic drain sediments, and intact soil cores to determine the surface water-porewater interactions over the short term following seawater inundation in coastal floodplain sediments. We found that that saline inundation of oxidised ASS floodplain sediments, even by relatively brackish water may cause rapid, shorter-term water quality changes and a pulse release of acidity due to desorption of acidic metal cations (Wong et al. 2010). We also found that trace metals can be mobilised from sulfidic

  19. Melatonin levels in follicular fluid as markers for IVF outcomes and predicting ovarian reserve.

    PubMed

    Tong, Jing; Sheng, Shile; Sun, Yun; Li, Huihui; Li, Wei-Ping; Zhang, Cong; Chen, Zi-Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Good-quality oocytes are critical for the success of in vitro fertilization (IVF), but, to date, there is no marker of ovarian reserve available that can accurately predict oocyte quality. Melatonin exerts its antioxidant actions as a strong radical scavenger that might affect oocyte quality directly as it is the most potent antioxidant in follicular fluid. To investigate the precise role of endogenous melatonin in IVF outcomes, we recruited 61 women undergoing treatment cycles of IVF or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) procedures and classified them into three groups according to their response to ovarian stimulation. Follicular fluid was collected to assess melatonin levels using a direct RIA method. We found good correlations between melatonin levels in follicular fluid with age, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and baseline follicle-stimulating hormone (bFSH), all of which have been used to predict ovarian reserve. Furthermore, as melatonin levels correlated to IVF outcomes, higher numbers of oocytes were collected from patients with higher melatonin levels and consequently the number of oocytes fertilized, zygotes cleaved, top quality embryos on D3, blastocysts obtained and embryos suitable for transplantation was higher. The blastocyst rate increased in concert with the melatonin levels across the gradient between the poor response group and the high response group. These results demonstrated that the melatonin levels in follicular fluid is associated with both the quantity and quality of oocytes and can predict IVF outcomes as well making them highly relevant biochemical markers of ovarian reserve.

  20. Predicted and Measured Modal Sound Power Levels for a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2010-01-01

    Refinements have been made to a method for estimating the modal sound power levels of a ducted fan ingesting distorted inflow. By assuming that each propagating circumferential mode consists only of a single radial mode (the one with the highest cut-off ratio), circumferential mode sound power levels can be computed for a variety of inflow distortion patterns and operating speeds. Predictions from the refined theory have been compared to data from an experiment conducted in the Advanced Noise Control Fan at NASA Glenn Research Center. The inflow to the fan was distorted by inserting cylindrical rods radially into the inlet duct. The rods were placed at an axial location one rotor chord length upstream of the fan and arranged in both regular and irregular circumferential patterns. The fan was operated at 2000, 1800, and 1400 rpm. Acoustic pressure levels were measured in the fan inlet and exhaust ducts using the Rotating Rake fan mode measurement system. Far field sound pressure levels were also measured. It is shown that predicted trends in circumferential mode sound power levels closely match the experimental data for all operating speeds and distortion configurations tested. Insight gained through this work is being used to develop more advanced tools for predicting fan inflow distortion tone noise levels.

  1. Defense of females, but not social status, predicts plasma androgen levels in male spotted hyenas.

    PubMed

    Goymann, Wolfgang; East, Marion L; Hofer, Heribert

    2003-01-01

    A positive correlation between male social status and testosterone levels is expected and often found in social species with high rates of agonistic interactions or when social relationships among males are unstable. In contrast, in species with low rates of agonistic interactions or when social relationships are stable, testosterone levels should not correlate with social status. The "challenge hypothesis" predicts that androgen levels should rise during periods of courtship or mate guarding. We addressed these questions in free-ranging spotted hyenas, a species with low rates and low intensities of aggression among males but where males spend extensive effort to court females. In males, we measured testosterone, its precursor androstenedione, and its metabolite 5alpha-dihydrotestosterone. As predicted, testosterone levels were significantly higher and androstenedione levels tended to be higher in males that, at the time of sampling, defended a female, compared with males that did not defend a female. Also, as predicted, there was no correlation between social status and androgen levels in male spotted hyenas.

  2. Translating crustacean biological responses from CO2 bubbling experiments into population-level predictions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many studies of animal responses to ocean acidification focus on uniformly conditioned age cohorts that lack complexities typically found in wild populations. These studies have become the primary data source for predicting higher level ecological effects, but the roles of intras...

  3. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  4. Perceptions of Crowding: Predicting at the Residence, Neighborhood, and City Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Donald E.; And Others

    1979-01-01

    Details the results of a large-scale field study aimed at testing two theories on human crowding. Found that psychological factors are increasingly important for the prediction of crowding as one moved from the immediate residence to the less immediate city level. Implications, limitations and further results are discussed. (Author/MA)

  5. Predicted Molecular Effects of Sequence Variants Link to System Level of Disease

    PubMed Central

    Bromberg, Yana; Rost, Burkhard

    2016-01-01

    Developments in experimental and computational biology are advancing our understanding of how protein sequence variation impacts molecular protein function. However, the leap from the micro level of molecular function to the macro level of the whole organism, e.g. disease, remains barred. Here, we present new results emphasizing earlier work that suggested some links from molecular function to disease. We focused on non-synonymous single nucleotide variants, also referred to as single amino acid variants (SAVs). Building upon OMIA (Online Mendelian Inheritance in Animals), we introduced a curated set of 117 disease-causing SAVs in animals. Methods optimized to capture effects upon molecular function often correctly predict human (OMIM) and animal (OMIA) Mendelian disease-causing variants. We also predicted effects of human disease-causing variants in the mouse model, i.e. we put OMIM SAVs into mouse orthologs. Overall, fewer variants were predicted with effect in the model organism than in the original organism. Our results, along with other recent studies, demonstrate that predictions of molecular effects capture some important aspects of disease. Thus, in silico methods focusing on the micro level of molecular function can help to understand the macro system level of disease. PMID:27536940

  6. Predicting Patterns of Grammatical Complexity across Language Exam Task Types and Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biber, Douglas; Gray, Bethany; Staples, Shelley

    2016-01-01

    In the present article, we explore the extent to which previous research on register variation can be used to predict spoken/written task-type variation as well as differences across score levels in the context of a major standardized language exam (TOEFL iBT). Specifically, we carry out two sets of linguistic analyses based on a large corpus of…

  7. Genetic interactions for heat stress and production level: predicting foreign from domestic data

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Genetic by environmental interactions were estimated from U.S. national data by separately adding random regressions for heat stress (HS) and herd production level (HL) to the all-breed animal model to improve predictions of future records and rankings in other climate and production situations. Yie...

  8. Prediction of altimetric sea level anomalies using time series models based on spatial correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miziński, Bartłomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2014-05-01

    Sea level anomaly (SLA) times series, which are time-varying gridded data, can be modelled and predicted using time series methods. This approach has been shown to provide accurate forecasts within the Prognocean system, the novel infrastructure for anticipating sea level change designed and built at the University of Wrocław (Poland) which utilizes the real-time SLA data from Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO). The system runs a few models concurrently, and our ocean prediction experiment includes both uni- and multivariate time series methods. The univariate ones are: extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model (PH), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and autoregressive prediction (PH+AR), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and self-exciting threshold autoregressive prediction (PH+SETAR). The following multivariate methods are used: extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and vector autoregressive prediction (PH+VAR), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and generalized space-time autoregressive prediction (PH+GSTAR). As the aforementioned models and the corresponding forecasts are computed in real time, hence independently and in the same computational setting, we are allowed to compare the accuracies offered by the models. The objective of this work is to verify the hypothesis that the multivariate prediction techniques, which make use of cross-correlation and spatial correlation, perform better than the univariate ones. The analysis is based on the daily-fitted and updated time series models predicting the SLA data (lead time of two weeks) over several months when El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was in its neutral state.

  9. Investigations on boron levels in drinking water sources in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Ren-ji; Xing, Xiao-ru; Zhou, Qun-fang; Jiang, Gui-bin; Wei, Fu-sheng

    2010-06-01

    To evaluate boron contamination of public drinking water in China, both dissolved and total boron contents in 98 public drinking water sources from 49 cities, 42 brands of bottled water samples from supermarkets in several cities, and 58 water samples from boron industrial area were measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Our experimental results showed that boron existed in public drinking water sources mainly in dissolved status with total concentrations ranging from 0.003 to 0.337 mg/L (mean = 0.046 mg/L). The mean boron concentrations in mineral and pure bottled water were 0.052 and 0.028 mg/L, respectively. The results obtained in this work showed that there was no health risk on view of boron in public drinking water sources and bottled water. In boron industrial area, boron concentrations in surface water and ground water were 1.28 mg/L (range = 0.007-3.8 mg/L) and 18.3 mg/L (range = 0.015-140 mg/L), respectively, which indicated that boron industry caused boron pollution in local water system.

  10. Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

    2015-12-01

    Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

  11. Soil water balance scenario studies using predicted soil hydraulic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemes, A.; Wösten, J. H. M.; Bouma, J.; Várallyay, G.

    2006-03-01

    Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have become a topic drawing increasing interest within the field of soil and environmental research because they can provide important soil physical data at relatively low cost. Few studies, however, explore which contributions PTFs can make to land-use planning, in terms of examining the expected outcome of certain changes in soil and water management practices. This paper describes three scenario studies that show some aspects of how PTFs may help improve decision making about land management practices. We use an exploratory research approach using simulation modelling to explore the potential effect of alternative solutions in land management. We: (i) evaluate benefits and risks when irrigating a field, and the impact of soil heterogeneity; (ii) examine which changes can be expected (in terms of soil water balance and supply) if organic matter content is changed as a result of an alternative management system; (iii) evaluate the risk of leaching to deeper horizons in some soils of Hungary. Using this research approach, quantitative answers are provided to what if? type questions, allowing the distinction of trends and potential problems, which may contribute to the development of sustainable management systems.

  12. Predicting the Health of a Natural Water System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Gregory H.

    2010-01-01

    This project was developed as an interdisciplinary application of the optimization of a single-variable function. It was used in a freshman-level single-variable calculus course. After the first month of the course, students had been exposed to the concepts of the derivative as a rate of change, average and instantaneous velocities, derivatives of…

  13. Modeling Benthic Sediment Processes to Predict Water Quality and Ecology in Narragansett Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The benthic sediment acts as a huge reservoir of particulate and dissolved material (within interstitial water) which can contribute to loading of contaminants and nutrients to the water column. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to predict spatial and temporal ...

  14. Modeling hydrodynamics, water quality, and benthic processes to predict ecological effects in Narragansett Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) was used to study the three dimensional (3D) circulation, water quality, and ecology in Narragansett Bay, RI. Predictions of the Bay hydrodynamics included the behavior of the water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperatur...

  15. PREDICTING SUSTAINABLE GROUND WATER TO CONSTRUCTED RIPARIAN WETLANDS: SHAKER TRACE, OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water isotopy is introduced as a best management practice for the prediction of sustained ground water inflows to prospective constructed wetlands. A primer and application of the stable isotopes, 18O and 2H, are discussed for riparian wetland restoration ar...

  16. Fuzzy logic control of steam generator water level in pressurized water reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Kuan, C.C.; Lin, C.; Hsu, C.C. . Dept. of Nuclear Engineering)

    1992-10-01

    In this paper a fuzzy logic controller is applied to control the steam generator water level in a pressurized water reactor. The method does not require a detailed mathematical mode of the object to be controlled. The design is based on a set of linguistic rules that were adopted from the human operator's experience. After off-line fuzzy computation, the controller is a lookup table, and thus, real-time control is achieved. Shrink-and-swell phenomena are considered in the linguistic rules, and the simulation results show that their effect is dramatically reduced. The performance of the control system can also be improved by changing the input and output scaling factors, which is convenient for on-line tuning.

  17. Regional water table (2004) and water-level changes in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins, Southwestern Mojave Desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stamos, Christina L.; Huff, Julia A.; Predmore, Steven K.; Clark, Dennis A.

    2004-01-01

    The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow systems, and consequently, water availability. During March and April 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made almost 900 water-level measurements in about 740 wells in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with historical data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from 500 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. In addition, 26 long-term (as much as 74 years) hydrographs were constructed which show water-level conditions throughout the basins, 9 short-term (1992 to 2004) hydrographs were constructed which show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River, and a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 2002 and 2004 water levels throughout the basins. The water-level change data show that in the Mojave River ground-water basin, more than one half (102) of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more and almost one fifth (32) of the wells had declines greater than 5 ft. between 2002 and 2004. The water-level change data also show that about one tenth (17) of the wells compared in the Mojave River ground-water basin had water level increases of 0.5 ft or more. Most of the water-level increases were the result of stormflow in the Mojave River during March 2004, which resulted in recharge to wells in the floodplain aquifer mainly along the river in the Alto subarea and the Transition zone, and along the

  18. Intersection crash prediction modeling with macro-level data from various geographic units.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jaeyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Cai, Qing

    2017-03-21

    There have been great efforts to develop traffic crash prediction models for various types of facilities. The crash models have played a key role to identify crash hotspots and evaluate safety countermeasures. In recent, many macro-level crash prediction models have been developed to incorporate highway safety considerations in the long-term transportation planning process. Although the numerous macro-level studies have found that a variety of demographic and socioeconomic zonal characteristics have substantial effects on traffic safety, few studies have attempted to coalesce micro-level with macro-level data from existing geographic units for estimating crash models. In this study, the authors have developed a series of intersection crash models for total, severe, pedestrian, and bicycle crashes with macro-level data for seven spatial units. The study revealed that the total, severe, and bicycle crash models with ZIP-code tabulation area data performs the best, and the pedestrian crash models with census tract-based data outperforms the competing models. Furthermore, it was uncovered that intersection crash models can be drastically improved by only including random-effects for macro-level entities. Besides, the intersection crash models are even further enhanced by including other macro-level variables. Lastly, the pedestrian and bicycle crash modeling results imply that several macro-level variables (e.g., population density, proportions of specific age group, commuters who walk, or commuters using bicycle, etc.) can be a good surrogate exposure for those crashes.

  19. Multi-level machine learning prediction of protein–protein interactions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    PubMed Central

    Zubek, Julian; Tatjewski, Marcin; Boniecki, Adam; Mnich, Maciej; Basu, Subhadip

    2015-01-01

    Accurate identification of protein–protein interactions (PPI) is the key step in understanding proteins’ biological functions, which are typically context-dependent. Many existing PPI predictors rely on aggregated features from protein sequences, however only a few methods exploit local information about specific residue contacts. In this work we present a two-stage machine learning approach for prediction of protein–protein interactions. We start with the carefully filtered data on protein complexes available for Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) database. First, we build linear descriptions of interacting and non-interacting sequence segment pairs based on their inter-residue distances. Secondly, we train machine learning classifiers to predict binary segment interactions for any two short sequence fragments. The final prediction of the protein–protein interaction is done using the 2D matrix representation of all-against-all possible interacting sequence segments of both analysed proteins. The level-I predictor achieves 0.88 AUC for micro-scale, i.e., residue-level prediction. The level-II predictor improves the results further by a more complex learning paradigm. We perform 30-fold macro-scale, i.e., protein-level cross-validation experiment. The level-II predictor using PSIPRED-predicted secondary structure reaches 0.70 precision, 0.68 recall, and 0.70 AUC, whereas other popular methods provide results below 0.6 threshold (recall, precision, AUC). Our results demonstrate that multi-scale sequence features aggregation procedure is able to improve the machine learning results by more than 10% as compared to other sequence representations. Prepared datasets and source code for our experimental pipeline are freely available for download from: http://zubekj.github.io/mlppi/ (open source Python implementation, OS independent). PMID:26157620

  20. Ab initio Determination of Formation Energies and Charge Transfer Levels of Charged Ions in Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vatti, Anoop Kishore; Todorova, Mira; Neugebauer, Joerg

    The ability to describe the complex atomic and electronic structure of liquid water and hydrated ions on a microscopic level is a key requirement to understand and simulate electro-chemical and biological processes. Identifying theoretical concepts which enable us to achieve an accurate description in a computationally efficient way is thereby of central importance. Aiming to unravel the importance and influence of different contributions on the hydration energy of ions we perform extensive ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations for charged and neutral cations (Zn, Mg) and anions (Cl, Br, I) in water. The structural correlations and electronic properties of the studied ions are analysed and compared to experimental observations. Following an approach inspired by the defect chemistry in semiconductors and aligning the water band edges on an absolute scale allows us to benchmark the calculated formation energies, identify transition states and compare the results to experiment. Based on these results we discuss the performance of various DFT xc-functionals to predict charge transfer levels and photo-emission experiments.

  1. The role of different levels of leadership in predicting self- and collective efficacy: evidence for discontinuity.

    PubMed

    Chen, Gilad; Bliese, Paul D

    2002-06-01

    This study identified potential discontinuities in the antecedents of efficacy beliefs across levels of analysis, with a particular focus on the role of leadership climate at different organizational levels. Random coefficient modeling analyses conducted on data collected from 2,585 soldiers in 86 combat units confirmed that soldiers' experience, role clarity, and psychological strain predicted self-efficacy to a greater extent than did leadership climate. Also, leadership climate at a higher organizational level related to self-efficacy through role clarity, whereas leadership climate at a lower organizational level related to self-efficacy through psychological strain. Group-level analyses identified leadership climate at a higher organizational level as the strongest predictor of collective efficacy. Theoretical and practical implications and directions for future research are discussed.

  2. Predicted Water Immersion Survival Times for Anti-Exposure Ensembles

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-10-01

    level of garment insulation and anthropometrics to provide guidelines for safe immersed exposure times. 176 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB...males only. The model can account for variations in weight, body fat (BF), and metabolic rate. For this study, three anthropometric cases were used: (1...chest, abdomen, right and left thighs, calves, feet, biceps, forearms and hands. A clo value can be specified for each area. Clo is a measure of

  3. Projecting groundwater arsenic levels to define water use options in South Asia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fendorf, S.; Kocar, B. D.; Polizzotto, M.; Stuckey, J.; Benner, S. G.

    2010-12-01

    More than a hundred million people are at risk of exposure to dangerous levels of geogenic arsenic in drinking water across South Asia. Arsenic within rocks of the Himalayas is liberated to the sediment load of the major river systems draining these mountain systems through erosion and ultimately deposited within the massive deltas of South Asia. Upon burial, arsenic may be released to the aqueous phase through microbially driven reduction of arsenic and iron, leading to contamination of groundwater now commonly used for human consumption. Fueling this process is organic carbon that stimulates microbial activity and, with limited oxygen supply, anaerobic metabolisms. Resulting concentrations of arsenic, however, are distributed unevenly in the subsurface as a result of heterogeneity in groundwater flow and biogeochemical processes. While such heterogeneity make predicting groundwater arsenic concentrations difficult both spatially and temporally, it provides an opportunity to potentially extract water safe (or safer) for human consumption. Here we describe the fate controlling processes of arsenic with a coupled biogeochemical-hydrologic model for the Mekong Delta and illustrate changes in groundwater quality with land use alterations—a key driver in determining long-term temporal variation in arsenic distribution. For areas where low-arsenic groundwater is not available, we further examine possible solutions, including alternate water resources, for providing safe drinking water to the local populous.

  4. Construal Levels and Psychological Distance: Effects on Representation, Prediction, Evaluation, and Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Trope, Yaacov; Liberman, Nira; Wakslak, Cheryl

    2011-01-01

    Construal level theory (CLT) is an account of how psychological distance influences individuals’ thoughts and behavior. CLT assumes that people mentally construe objects that are psychologically near in terms of low-level, detailed, and contextualized features, whereas at a distance they construe the same objects or events in terms of high-level, abstract, and stable characteristics. Research has shown that different dimensions of psychological distance (time, space, social distance, and hypotheticality) affect mental construal and that these construals, in turn, guide prediction, evaluation, and behavior. The present paper reviews this research and its implications for consumer psychology. PMID:21822366

  5. Disaggregating Hot Water Use and Predicting Hot Water Waste in Five Test Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, H.; Wade, J.

    2014-04-01

    While it is important to make the equipment (or 'plant') in a residential hot water system more efficient, the hot water distribution system also affects overall system performance and energy use. Energy wasted in heating water that is not used is estimated to be on the order of 10 to 30 percent of total domestic hot water (DHW) energy use. This field monitoring project installed temperature sensors on the distribution piping (on trunks and near fixtures) and programmed a data logger to collect data at 5 second intervals whenever there was a hot water draw. This data was used to assign hot water draws to specific end uses in the home as well as to determine the portion of each hot water that was deemed useful (i.e., above a temperature threshold at the fixture). Five houses near Syracuse NY were monitored. Overall, the procedures to assign water draws to each end use were able to successfully assign about 50% of the water draws, but these assigned draws accounted for about 95% of the total hot water use in each home. The amount of hot water deemed as useful ranged from low of 75% at one house to a high of 91% in another. At three of the houses, new water heaters and distribution improvements were implemented during the monitoring period and the impact of these improvements on hot water use and delivery efficiency were evaluated.

  6. Disaggregating Hot Water Use and Predicting Hot Water Waste in Five Test Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, Hugh; Wade, Jeremy

    2014-04-01

    While it is important to make the equipment (or "plant") in a residential hot water system more efficient, the hot water distribution system also affects overall system performance and energy use. Energy wasted in heating water that is not used is estimated to be on the order of 10%-30% of total domestic hot water (DHW) energy use. This field monitoring project installed temperature sensors on the distribution piping (on trunks and near fixtures) in five houses near Syracuse, NY, and programmed a data logger to collect data at 5 second intervals whenever there was a hot water draw. This data was used to assign hot water draws to specific end uses in the home as well as to determine the portion of each hot water that was deemed useful (i.e., above a temperature threshold at the fixture). Overall, the procedures to assign water draws to each end use were able to successfully assign about 50% of the water draws, but these assigned draws accounted for about 95% of the total hot water use in each home. The amount of hot water deemed as useful ranged from low of 75% at one house to a high of 91% in another. At three of the houses, new water heaters and distribution improvements were implemented during the monitoring period and the impact of these improvements on hot water use and delivery efficiency were evaluated.

  7. One-level prediction-A numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCammon, R.B.; Kork, J.O.

    1992-01-01

    One-level prediction has been developed as a numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment within large areas. The method is based on a presumed relationship between a numerical measure of geologic favorability and the spatial distribution of metal endowment. Metal endowment within an unexplored area for which the favorability measure is greater than a favorability threshold level is estimated to be proportional to the area of that unexplored portion. The constant of proportionality is the ratio of the discovered endowment found within a suitably chosen control region, which has been explored, to the area of that explored region. In addition to the estimate of undiscovered endowment, a measure of the error of the estimate is also calculated. One-level prediction has been used to estimate the undiscovered uranium endowment in the San Juan basin, New Mexico, U.S.A. A subroutine to perform the necessary calculations is included. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

  8. [Eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure: assessment and development prediction].

    PubMed

    Wang, Liang; Zhu, Li-Qun; Zhang, Si-Wei; Zhang, Pei-Qi; Xu, Min-Lun; Bian, Xin-Min

    2012-11-01

    Based on the 'three critical points' theory of eco-fitness, and by using dynamic weighting and fitting methods, an assessment system for the eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure was constructed, and, taking Zhangqiu of Shandong Province, East China as a case, the eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure was assessed and predicted. Due to the limited agro-ecological resources, the comprehensive eco-fitness index of four kinds of agricultural leading industry in Zhangqiu presented an upward trend from 2005 to 2010, but a downward trend from 2011 to 2015. The eco-fitness indices of oil crops and fruits would be negative in 2015. The applied research in Zhangqiu confirmed the validity of the assessment system constructed for the eco-fitness of county-level agriculture leading industry structure and the rationality of the prediction model.

  9. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lipscomb, William

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  10. Comparison of predictive ability of water solubility QSPR models generated by MLR, PLS and ANN methods.

    PubMed

    Erös, Dániel; Kéri, György; Kövesdi, István; Szántai-Kis, Csaba; Mészáros, György; Orfi, László

    2004-02-01

    ADME/Tox computational screening is one of the most hot topics of modern drug research. About one half of the potential drug candidates fail because of poor ADME/Tox properties. Since the experimental determination of water solubility is time-consuming also, reliable computational predictions are needed for the pre-selection of acceptable "drug-like" compounds from diverse combinatorial libraries. Recently many successful attempts were made for predicting water solubility of compounds. A comprehensive review of previously developed water solubility calculation methods is presented here, followed by the description of the solubility prediction method designed and used in our laboratory. We have selected carefully 1381 compounds from scientific publications in a unified database and used this dataset in the calculations. The externally validated models were based on calculated descriptors only. The aim of model optimization was to improve repeated evaluations statistics of the predictions and effective descriptor scoring functions were used to facilitate quick generation of multiple linear regression analysis (MLR), partial least squares method (PLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) models with optimal predicting ability. Standard error of prediction of the best model generated with ANN (with 39-7-1 network structure) was 0.72 in logS units while the cross validated squared correlation coefficient (Q(2)) was better than 0.85. These values give a good chance for successful pre-selection of screening compounds from virtual libraries, based on the predicted water solubility.

  11. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2002--Volume 2: Continuous ground-water-level data, and periodic surface-water- and ground-water-quality data, Calendar Year 2002

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffin, Robert; Grams, Susan C.; Leeth, David C.; Peck, Michael F.

    2002-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2002 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2002, including: discharge records of 154 gaging stations; stage for 165 gaging stations; precipitation for 105 gaging stations; information for 20 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 27 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 72 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 50 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2002, including continuous water-level records of 155 ground-water wells and periodic records at 132 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia.

  12. Borehole sounding device with sealed depth and water level sensors

    DOEpatents

    Skalski, Joseph C.; Henke, Michael D.

    2005-08-02

    A borehole device having proximal and distal ends comprises an enclosure at the proximal end for accepting an aircraft cable containing a plurality of insulated conductors from a remote position. A water sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the enclosure and contains means for detecting water, and sending a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating water has been detected. A bottom sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the water sensing enclosure for determining when the borehole device encounters borehole bottom and sends a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating that borehole bottom has been encountered.

  13. Use of predictive models and rapid methods to nowcast bacteria levels at coastal beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, D.S.

    2009-01-01

    The need for rapid assessments of recreational water quality to better protect public health is well accepted throughout the research and regulatory communities. Rapid analytical methods, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and immunomagnetic separation/adenosine triphosphate (ATP) analysis, are being tested but are not yet ready for widespread use. Another solution is the use of predictive models, wherein variable(s) that are easily and quickly measured are surrogates for concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria. Rainfall-based alerts, the simplest type of model, have been used by several communities for a number of years. Deterministic models use mathematical representations of the processes that affect bacteria concentrations; this type of model is being used for beach-closure decisions at one location in the USA. Multivariable statistical models are being developed and tested in many areas of the USA; however, they are only used in three areas of the Great Lakes to aid in notifications of beach advisories or closings. These "operational" statistical models can result in more accurate assessments of recreational water quality than use of the previous day's Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration as determined by traditional culture methods. The Ohio Nowcast, at Huntington Beach, Bay Village, Ohio, is described in this paper as an example of an operational statistical model. Because predictive modeling is a dynamic process, water-resource managers continue to collect additional data to improve the predictive ability of the nowcast and expand the nowcast to other Ohio beaches and a recreational river. Although predictive models have been shown to work well at some beaches and are becoming more widely accepted, implementation in many areas is limited by funding, lack of coordinated technical leadership, and lack of supporting epidemiological data. ?? 2009 AEHMS.

  14. Effect of water level drawdown on decomposition in boreal peatlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Penttilä, Timo; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    Plant litter production and decomposition are key processes in element cycling in most ecosystems. In peatlands, there has been a long-term imbalance between litter production and decay caused by high water levels (WL) and consequent anoxia. This has resulted in peatlands being a significant sink of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, peatlands are experiencing both "natural" (global climate change) and anthropogenic (ditching) changes that threaten their ability to retain this ecosystem identity and function. Many of these alterations can be traced back to WL drawdown, which can cause increased aeration, higher acidity, falling temperatures, and a greater probability of drought. Such changes are also associated with an increasing decomposition rate, and therefore a greater amount of C released back to the atmosphere. Yet studies about how the overall C balance of peatlands will be affected have come up with conflicting conclusions, demonstrating that the C store could increase, decrease, or remain static. A factor that has been largely overlooked is the change in litter type composition following persistent WL drawdown. It is the aim of our study, then, to help to resolve this issue. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent WL drawdown on the decomposition of numerous types of above-ground and below-ground plant litters at three boreal peatland sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. We thus believe that enough permutations have been created to obtain a good assessment of how each factor, site nutrient level, WL regime, and litter type composition, influences decomposition. We used the litter bag method to measure the decomposition rates: placed measured amounts of plant litter, or cellulose strips as a control, into closed mesh bags, and installed the bags in the natural environment for decomposition for each litter type for varying amounts of time. Following litter bag recovery, the litter was

  15. Variability, Predictability, and Risk in the Alaskan Arctic Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arbetter, T. E.; Goldstein, M. A.; Lynch, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Summer sea ice extent in the Arctic has been in decline since 1996, but after successive record September minimums in 2005, 2007, and 2012, the possibility of developing the high Arctic has rapidly changed from something decades away to an imminent opportunity. The Obama administration permitted Royal Dutch Shell to conduct exploratory oil drilling in the Chukchi Sea in summer 2015. If successful, further development will follow. The Bering Strait, as the exit of the Northern Sea Route, has already seen increased ship traffic, and this will likely continue if the sea ice remains reliably low. While not the only factor, predictability of sea ice extent, particularly on seasonal scales (3-12 months), is essential; a wrong decision will be costly if not catastrophic (e.g, Kulluk 2012). Using a reduced form model, we investigate geophysical processes which govern the advance and retreat of the sea ice edge at key points (e.g., Nome, Kotzebue, Barrow, Prudhoe Bay). Using the Black-Scholes Option Pricing formula, we estimate costs and risks associated with the ice edge variability.

  16. Lake Storage Measurements For Water Resources Management: Combining Remotely Sensed Water Levels and Surface Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Presently operating satellite-based radar altimeters have the ability to monitor variations in surface water height for large lakes and reservoirs, and future sensors will expand observational capabilities to many smaller water bodies. Such remote sensing provides objective, independent information where in situ data are lacking or access is restricted. A USDA/NASA (http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/) program is performing operational altimetric monitoring of the largest lakes and reservoirs around the world using data from the NASA/CNES, NRL, and ESA missions. Public lake-level products from the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM) are a combination of archived and near real time information. The USDA/FAS utilizes the products for assessing international irrigation potential and for crop production estimates; other end-users study climate trends, observe anthropogenic effects, and/or are are involved in other water resources management and regional water security issues. At the same time, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/), its NASA GSFC partners (http://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/floodmap/home.html), and associated MODIS data and automated processing algorithms are providing public access to a growing GIS record of the Earth's changing surface water extent, including changes related to floods and droughts. The Observatory's web site also provide both archival and near real time information, and is based mainly on the highest spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS bands. Therefore, it is now possible to provide on an international basis reservoir and lake storage change measurements entirely from remote sensing, on a frequently updating basis. The volume change values are based on standard numerical procedures used for many decades for analysis of coeval lake area and height data. We provide first results of this combination, including prototype displays for public access and data retrieval of water storage

  17. Water Levels In Major Artesian Aquifers Of The New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1988

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosman, Robert; Lacombe, Pierre J.; Storck, Donald A.

    1995-01-01

    Water levels in 1,251 wells in the New Jersey Coastal Plain, Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, and Kent and New Castle Counties, Delaware, were measured from October 1988 to February 1989 and compared with 1,071 water levels measured from September 1983 to May 1984. Water levels in 916 of the wells measured in the 1983 study were remeasured in the 1988 study. Alternate wells were selected to replace wells used in 1983 that were inaccessible at the time of the water-level measurements in 1988 or had been destroyed. New well sites were added in strategic locations to increase coverage where possible. Large cones of depression have formed or expanded in the nine major artesian aquifers that underlie the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Water levels are shown on nine potentiometric-surface maps. Hydrographs for observation wells typically show water-level declines for 1983, through 1989. In the confined Cohansey aquifer, the lowest water level, 20 feet below sea level, was measured in a well located at Cape May City Water Department, Cape May County. Water levels in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand declined as much as 21 feet at Ventnor, Atlantic County, over the 6-year period from the 1983 study to this study for 1988. Water levels in the Piney Point aquifer were as low as 56 feet below sea level at Seaside Park, Ocean County; 45 feet below sea level in southern Cumberland County; and 28 feet below sea level at Margate, Atlantic County. Water levels in the Vincentown aquifer did not change over the 6-year period. The lowest water levels in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and the Englishtown aquifer system were 218 feet and 256 feet below sea level, respectively. Large cones of depression in the Potomac- Raritan-Magothy aquifer system are centered in the Camden County area and the Middlesex and Monmouth County area. Water levels declined as much as 46 feet in these areas over the 6-year period.

  18. A Noise Level Prediction Method Based on Electro-Mechanical Frequency Response Function for Capacitors

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

  19. Water-level and water-quality changes in Great Salt Lake, Utah, 1847-1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnow, Ted

    1984-01-01

    The surface level of Great Salt Lake, Utah, fluctuates continuously, primarily in response to climatic factors. During 1847-1982 the lake surface fluctuated between a low of about 4,191 feet and a high of about 4,212 feet above sea level but showed no net change. From September 18, 1982, to June 30, 1983, however, the lake rose 5.2 feet-from about 4,200 to about 4,205 feet above sea level-which is the greatest seasonal rise ever recorded. That rise resulted from considerably greater than average rainfall in 1982, greater than average snowfall during the autumn of 1982 through the spring of 1983, and unseasonably cool weather during that spring.Man's activities have had a lesser, but still important effect on the lake level. The lake surface would have been about 5 feet higher in 1983 had there been no consumptive use of water owing to man's activities in the lake basin since 1847. The lake has been divided into two parts by a railroad causeway since 1959. The causeway restricts natural circulation, resulting in a difference of salinity and surface level of the lake across the causeway. The difference in surface level between the two parts of the lake varies both seasonally and annually and was as much as 3.25 feet in 1983.The water budget for the Great Salt Lake can be expressed as:Inflow = Outflow ± Storage changeThe average annual inflow for 1931-76 was about 2.9 million acre-feet-about 1.9 million acre-feet from surface water, about 900,000 acre-feet from direct precipitation, and about 75,000 acre-feet from ground water. The average annual outflow for the same period, all by evaporation, also was about 2.9 million acre-feet. There was no net change in storage during the period.The famed buoyancy of the brine in Great Salt Lake results from a dissolved-mineral content of almost 5 billion tons. More than 2 million additional tons have been added to the lake annually in recent years. The major dissolved ions in the brine are chloride, sulfate, sodium, magnesium

  20. CA19-9 serum levels predict micrometastases in patients with gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Potrc, Stojan; Mis, Katarina; Plankl, Mojca; Mars, Tomaz

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background We explored the prognostic value of the up-regulated carbohydrate antigen (CA19-9) in node-negative patients with gastric cancer as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Patients and methods Micrometastases were determined using reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for a subgroup of 30 node-negative patients. This group was used to determine the cut-off for preoperative CA19-9 serum levels as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Then 187 node-negative T1 to T4 patients were selected to validate the predictive value of this CA19-9 threshold. Results Patients with micrometastases had significantly higher preoperative CA19-9 serum levels compared to patients without micrometastases (p = 0.046). CA19-9 serum levels were significantly correlated with tumour site, tumour diameter, and perineural invasion. Although not reaching significance, subgroup analysis showed better five-year survival rates for patients with CA19-9 serum levels below the threshold, compared to patients with CA19-9 serum levels above the cut-off. The cumulative survival for T2 to T4 node-negative patients was significantly better with CA19-9 serum levels below the cut-off (p = 0.04). Conclusions Preoperative CA19-9 serum levels can be used to predict higher risk for haematogenous spread and micrometastases in node-negative patients. However, CA19-9 serum levels lack the necessary sensitivity and specificity to reliably predict micrometastases. PMID:27247553

  1. Hair loss in females after sleeve gastrectomy: predictive value of serum zinc and iron levels.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Tovar, Jaime; Oller, Inmaculada; Llavero, Carolina; Zubiaga, Lorea; Diez, María; Arroyo, Antonio; Calero, Alicia; Calpena, Rafael

    2014-05-01

    A common complication after bariatric surgery is hair loss, which is related to rapid weight reduction, but zinc, iron, and other micronutrient deficiencies can also be involved. Little is studied after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG). A prospective observational study was performed of 42 morbidly obese females undergoing LSG. Incidence of hair loss was monitored. Micronutrients were investigated preoperatively and three, six, and 12 months after surgery. Sixteen patients (41%) reported hair loss in the postoperative course. A significant association was observed between hair loss and zinc levels (P = 0.021) but mean zinc levels were within the normal range in patients reporting hair loss. Only three patients (7.7%) presented low zinc levels, all of them reporting hair loss. There was also a significant association between iron levels and alopecia (P = 0.017), but mean values of the patients with hair loss were within normal range. Only four patients (10.2%) presented low iron levels, all of them presenting hair loss. A variable consisting of the addition of zinc + iron showed a significant association with hair loss (P = 0.013). A cutoff point was established in 115 (odds ratio, 4; P = 0.006). All the patients but two reporting hair loss presented addition levels under 115. This variable showed sensibility 88 per cent, specificity 84 per cent, positive predictive value 79 per cent, and negative predictive value 91 per cent to predict hair loss. Hair loss is a frequent condition after sleeve gastrectomy. In most cases, iron and zinc levels are within the normal range. The variable addition (zinc + iron) is a good predictor of hair loss. Patients with addition levels below 115 are fourfold more susceptible to present hair loss. In these cases, zinc supplements achieve the stop of hair loss in most cases.

  2. Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt.

    PubMed

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S; Znoj, Hansjörg

    2013-06-01

    This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks.

  3. Prognocean Plus: the Science-Oriented Sea Level Prediction System as a Tool for Public Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Świerczyńska, M. G.; Miziński, B.; Niedzielski, T.

    2015-12-01

    The novel real-time system for sea level prediction, known as Prognocean Plus, has been developed as a new generation service available through the Polish supercomputing grid infrastructure. The researchers can access the service at https://prognocean.plgrid.pl/. Although the system is science-oriented, we wish to discuss herein its potentials to enhance ocean management studies carried out routinely by public stakeholders. The system produces the short- and medium-term predictions of global altimetric gridded Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) time series, updated daily. The spatial resolution of the SLA forecasts is 1/4° x 1/4°, while the temporal resolution of prognoses is equal to 1 day. The system computes the predictions of time-variable ocean topography using five data-based models, which are not computationally demanding, enabling us to compare their skillfulness in respect to physically-based approaches commonly used by different sea level prediction systems. However, the aim of the system is not only to compute the predictions for science purposes, but primarily to build a user-oriented platform that serves the prognoses and their statistics to a broader community. Thus, we deliver the SLA forecasts as a rapid service available online. In order to provide potential users with the access to science results the Web Map Service (WMS) for Prognocean Plus is designed. We regularly publish the forecasts, both in the interactive graphical WMS service, available from the browser, as well as through the Web Coverage Service (WCS) standard. The Prognocean Plus system, as an early-response system, may be interesting for public stakeholders. It may be used for marine navigation as well as for climate risk management (delineate areas vulnerable to local sea level rise), marine management (advise offered for offshore activities) and coastal management (early warnings against coastal floodings).

  4. Model analysis of effects on water levels at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by construction dewatering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marie, James R.

    1976-01-01

    The computer models were developed to investigate possible hydrologic effects within the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by planned dewatering at the adjacent Bailly Nuclear Generator construction site. The model analysis indicated that the planned dewatering would cause a drawdown of about 4 ft under the westernmost pond of the Lakeshore and that this drawdown would cause the pond to go almost dry--less than 0.5 ft of water remaining in about 1 percent of the pond--under average conditions during the 18-month dewatering period. When water levels are below average, as during late July and early August 1974, the pond would go dry in about 5.5 months. However, the pond may not have to go completely dry to damage the ecosystem. If the National Park Service 's independent study determines the minimum pond level at which ecosystem damage would be minimized, the models developed in this study could be used to predict the hydrologic conditions necessary to maintain that level

  5. Prediction of Shock-Induced Cavitation in Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, Aaron

    2013-06-01

    Fluid-structure interaction problems that require estimating the response of thin structures within fluids to shock loading has wide applicability. For example, these problems may include underwater explosions and the dynamic response of ships and submarines; and biological applications such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and wound ballistics. In all of these applications the process of cavitation, where small cavities with dissolved gases or vapor are formed as the local pressure drops below the vapor pressure due to shock hydrodynamics, can cause significant damage to the surrounding thin structures or membranes if these bubbles collapse, generating additional shock loading. Hence, a two-phase equation of state (EOS) with three distinct regions of compression, expansion, and tension was developed to model shock-induced cavitation. This EOS was evaluated by comparing data from pressure and temperature shock Hugoniot measurements for water up to 400 kbar, and data from ultrasonic pressure measurements in tension to -0.3 kbar, to simulated responses from CTH, an Eulerian, finite volume shock code. The new EOS model showed significant improvement over pre-existing CTH models such as the SESAME EOS for capturing cavitation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  6. Prediction of shock-induced cavitation in water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, A.

    2014-05-01

    Fluid-structure interaction problems that require estimating the response of thin structures within fluids to shock loading have wide applicability. For example, these problems may include underwater explosions and the dynamic response of ships and submarines; and biological applications such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and wound ballistics. In all of these applications the process of cavitation, where small cavities with dissolved gases or vapor are formed as the local pressure drops below the vapor pressure due to shock hydrodynamics, can cause significant damage to the surrounding thin structures or membranes if these bubbles collapse, generating additional shock loading. Hence, a two-phase equation of state (EOS) with three distinct regions of compression, expansion, and tension was developed to model shock-induced cavitation. This EOS was evaluated by comparing data from pressure and temperature shock Hugoniot measurements for water up to 400 kbar, and data from ultrasonic pressure measurements in tension to -0.3 kbar, to simulated responses from CTH, an Eulerian, finite volume shock code. The new EOS model showed significant improvement over preexisting CTH models such as the SESAME EOS for capturing cavitation.

  7. Water levels in continuously monitored wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, 1985--88

    SciTech Connect

    Luckey, R.R.; Lobmeyer, D.H.; Burkhardt, D.J.

    1993-07-01

    Water levels have been monitored hourly in 15 wells completed in 23 depth intervals in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada. Water levels were monitored using pressure transducers and were recorded by data loggers. The pressure transducers were periodically calibrated by raising and lowering them in the wells. The water levels were normally measured at approximately the same time that the transducers were calibrated. Where the transducer output appeared reasonable, it was converted to water levels using the calibrations and manual water- level measurements. The amount of transducer output that was converted to water levels ranged from zero for several intervals to about 98 percent for one interval. Fourteen of the wells were completed in Tertiary volcanic rocks and one well was completed in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Each well monitored from one to four depth intervals. Water-level fluctuation caused by barometric pressure changes and earth tides were observed.

  8. [Impact of precipitation and underground water level in the edge of oases on growth and decline of Nitraria tangugtorum community].

    PubMed

    Yang, Z; Gao, Z

    2000-12-01

    Based on the data from underground water monitoring, meterological measuring and fixed sample square investigating in successive years at the edge of the oasis in Minqin, Gansu, the impact of precipitation and underground water on the growth and decline of Nitraria tangutorum community was studied. The result showed that the desiccated environment in oases driven by the decline of underground water level was favorable for the growth and develoment of N. tangutorum community, and made this species more xerophilous. This declining underground water level was not a limiting factor for N. tangutorum growth in late years. These N. tangutorum-dominated communities were predicted to survive comparatively longer, and to function as sand fixer and wind breaker at oasis edge in Minqin. When average annual precipitation was about 110 mm, N. tangutorum would maintain its normal growth, but the community couldn't spread freely. Only when the annual precipitation was up 140 mm in two years running, could its growth be improved.

  9. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, W. J.

    2014-05-01

    Wim J. de Lange, Geert F. Prinsen, Jacco H. Hoogewoud, Ab A Veldhuizen, Joachim Hunink, Erik F.W. Ruijgh, Timo Kroon Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses

  10. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, Wim; Prinsen, Geert.; Hoogewoud, Jacco; Veldhuizen, Ab; Ruijgh, Erik; Kroon, Timo

    2013-04-01

    Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with? by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses. Regional expertise is welcomed in the calibration phase of NHI. It aims to reduce uncertainties by improving the

  11. Regional Water Table (2002) and Water-Level Changes in the Mojave River and Morongo Ground-Water Basins, Southwestern Mojave Desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Gregory A.; Stamos, Christina L.; Predmore, Steven K.

    2004-01-01

    The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow systems, and consequently, water availability. During 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with previous data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from about 600 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. Twenty-eight hydrographs show long-term (up to 70 years) water-level conditions throughout the basins, and 9 short-term (1997 to 2002) hydrographs show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River. In addition, a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 2000 and 2002 water levels throughout the basins. In the Mojave River ground-water basin, about 66 percent of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more since 2000 and about 27 percent of the wells had water-level declines greater than 5 ft. The only area that had water-level increases greater than 5 ft that were not attributed to fluctuations in nearby pumpage was in the Harper Lake (dry) area where there has been a significant reduction in pumpage during the last decade. In the Morongo ground-water basin, about 36 percent of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more and about 10 percent of the wells had water-level declines greater than 5 ft. Water-level increases greater than 5 ft were measured only in the Warren subbasin, where artificial

  12. Can tritiated water-dilution space accurately predict total body water in chukar partridges

    SciTech Connect

    Crum, B.G.; Williams, J.B.; Nagy, K.A.

    1985-11-01

    Total body water (TBW) volumes determined from the dilution space of injected tritiated water have consistently overestimated actual water volumes (determined by desiccation to constant mass) in reptiles and mammals, but results for birds are controversial. We investigated potential errors in both the dilution method and the desiccation method in an attempt to resolve this controversy. Tritiated water dilution yielded an accurate measurement of water mass in vitro. However, in vivo, this method yielded a 4.6% overestimate of the amount of water (3.1% of live body mass) in chukar partridges, apparently largely because of loss of tritium from body water to sites of dissociable hydrogens on body solids. An additional source of overestimation (approximately 2% of body mass) was loss of tritium to the solids in blood samples during distillation of blood to obtain pure water for tritium analysis. Measuring tritium activity in plasma samples avoided this problem but required measurement of, and correction for, the dry matter content in plasma. Desiccation to constant mass by lyophilization or oven-drying also overestimated the amount of water actually in the bodies of chukar partridges by 1.4% of body mass, because these values included water adsorbed onto the outside of feathers. When desiccating defeathered carcasses, oven-drying at 70 degrees C yielded TBW values identical to those obtained from lyophilization, but TBW was overestimated (0.5% of body mass) by drying at 100 degrees C due to loss of organic substances as well as water.

  13. Growth and food consumption by tiger muskellunge: Effects of temperature and ration level on bioenergetic model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chipps, S.R.; Einfalt, L.M.; Wahl, David H.

    2000-01-01

    We measured growth of age-0 tiger muskellunge as a function of ration size (25, 50, 75, and 100% C(max))and water temperature (7.5-25??C) and compared experimental results with those predicted from a bioenergetic model. Discrepancies between actual and predicted values varied appreciably with water temperature and growth rate. On average, model output overestimated winter consumption rates at 10 and 7.5??C by 113 to 328%, respectively, whereas model predictions in summer and autumn (20-25??C) were in better agreement with actual values (4 to 58%). We postulate that variation in model performance was related to seasonal changes in esocid metabolic rate, which were not accounted for in the bioenergetic model. Moreover, accuracy of model output varied with feeding and growth rate of tiger muskellunge. The model performed poorly for fish fed low rations compared with estimates based on fish fed ad libitum rations and was attributed, in part, to the influence of growth rate on the accuracy of bioenergetic predictions. Based on modeling simulations, we found that errors associated with bioenergetic parameters had more influence on model output when growth rate was low, which is consistent with our observations. In addition, reduced conversion efficiency at high ration levels may contribute to variable model performance, thereby implying that waste losses should be modeled as a function of ration size for esocids. Our findings support earlier field tests of the esocid bioenergetic model and indicate that food consumption is generally overestimated by the model, particularly in winter months and for fish exhibiting low feeding and growth rates.

  14. Predicting spike timing in highly synchronous auditory neurons at different sound levels

    PubMed Central

    Fontaine, Bertrand; Benichoux, Victor; Joris, Philip X.

    2013-01-01

    A challenge for sensory systems is to encode natural signals that vary in amplitude by orders of magnitude. The spike trains of neurons in the auditory system must represent the fine temporal structure of sounds despite a tremendous variation in sound level in natural environments. It has been shown in vitro that the transformation from dynamic signals into precise spike trains can be accurately captured by simple integrate-and-fire models. In this work, we show that the in vivo responses of cochlear nucleus bushy cells to sounds across a wide range of levels can be precisely predicted by deterministic integrate-and-fire models with adaptive spike threshold. Our model can predict both the spike timings and the firing rate in response to novel sounds, across a large input level range. A noisy version of the model accounts for the statistical structure of spike trains, including the reliability and temporal precision of responses. Spike threshold adaptation was critical to ensure that predictions remain accurate at different levels. These results confirm that simple integrate-and-fire models provide an accurate phenomenological account of spike train statistics and emphasize the functional relevance of spike threshold adaptation. PMID:23864375

  15. A Predictive Coding Perspective on Beta Oscillations during Sentence-Level Language Comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Ashley G.; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Schriefers, Herbert; Bastiaansen, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    Oscillatory neural dynamics have been steadily receiving more attention as a robust and temporally precise signature of network activity related to language processing. We have recently proposed that oscillatory dynamics in the beta and gamma frequency ranges measured during sentence-level comprehension might be best explained from a predictive coding perspective. Under our proposal we related beta oscillations to both the maintenance/change of the neural network configuration responsible for the construction and representation of sentence-level meaning, and to top–down predictions about upcoming linguistic input based on that sentence-level meaning. Here we zoom in on these particular aspects of our proposal, and discuss both old and new supporting evidence. Finally, we present some preliminary magnetoencephalography data from an experiment comparing Dutch subject- and object-relative clauses that was specifically designed to test our predictive coding framework. Initial results support the first of the two suggested roles for beta oscillations in sentence-level language comprehension. PMID:26973500

  16. Regional Water Table (1998) and Ground-Water-Level Changes in the Mojave River, and the Morongo Ground-Water Basins, San Bernardino County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Gregory A.; Pimentel, M. Isabel

    2000-01-01

    The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The rapid and continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The continuing collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water systems and, consequently, water availability. During 1998 the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,370 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from 450 wells, providing coverage for most of both basins. Twenty-three hydrographs show long-term (as much as 70 years) water-level trends throughout the basins. To help show effects of late seasonal recharge along the Mojave River, 14 short-term (13 years) hydrographs were created. A water-level change map was compiled to enable comparison of 1996 and 1998 water levels. The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins had little change in water levels between 1996 and 1998 - with the exception of the areas of the Yucca Valley affected by artificial recharge. Other water-level changes were localized and reflected pumping or measurements made before seasonal recharge. Three areas of perched ground water were identified: El Mirage Lake (dry), Adelanto, and Lucerne Valley.

  17. Predicting bone remodeling around tissue- and bone-level dental implants used in reduced bone width.

    PubMed

    Eser, Atilim; Tonuk, Ergin; Akca, Kivanc; Dard, Michel M; Cehreli, Murat Cavit

    2013-09-03

    The objective of this study was to predict time-dependent bone remodeling around tissue- and bone-level dental implants used in patients with reduced bone width. The remodeling of bone around titanium tissue-level, and titanium and titanium-zirconium alloy bone-level implants was studied under 100 N oblique load for one month by implementing the Stanford theory into three-dimensional finite element models. Maximum principal stress, minimum principal stress, and strain energy density in peri-implant bone and displacement in x- and y- axes of the implant were evaluated. Maximum and minimum principal stresses around tissue-level implant were higher than bone-level implants and both bone-level implants experienced comparable stresses. Total strain energy density in bone around titanium implants slightly decreased during the first two weeks of loading followed by a recovery, and the titanium-zirconium implant showed minor changes in the axial plane. Total strain energy density changes in the loading and contralateral sides were higher in tissue-level implant than other implants in the cortical bone at the horizontal plane. The displacement values of the implants were almost constant over time. Tissue-level implants were associated with higher stresses than bone-level implants. The time-dependent biomechanical outcome of titanium-zirconium alloy bone-level implant was comparable to the titanium implant.

  18. Litter quality and its response to water level drawdown in boreal peatlands at plant species and community level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Anttila, Jani; Spetz, Peter; Kitunen, Veikko; Tapanila, Tarja; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    There is increasing evidence that changes in the species composition and structure of plant communities induced by global change will have much more impact on plant-mediated carbon cycling than any phenotypic responses. These impacts are largely mediated by shifts in litter quality. There are few documentations of these changes so far, due to the relatively long time scale required for their direct observation. Here, we examine the changes in litter inputs induced by persistent water-level drawdown in boreal peatland sites. Peatlands contain a major proportion of the terrestrial carbon pool, and it is thus important to be able to predict their behaviour and role in the global C cycle under different global change factors. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent water level (WL) drawdown on the quantity and chemical quality of above-ground plant litter inputs at three sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. The parameters used to characterize litter quality included various extractable substances, cellulose, holocellulose, composition of hemicellulose (neutral sugars, uronic acids), lignin, CuO oxidation phenolic products, and concentrations of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium, magnesium, manganese and calcium. Four different groups of litter were clearly distinct based on their chemical quality: foliar litters, graminoids, mosses and woody litters. The pristine conditions were characterized by Sphagnum moss and graminoid litter. Following short-term WL drawdown, changes in the quality and quantity of litter inputs were small. Following long-term WL drawdown, total litter inputs dramatically increased, due to increased tree litter inputs, and the litter type composition greatly changed. These changes resulted in annual inputs of 1901-2010 kg•ha-1 C, 22-24 kg•ha-1 N, 1.5-2.2 kg•ha-1 P, 967-1235 kg•ha-1 lignin and lignin-like compounds and 254-300 kg•ha-1 water solubles after long-term WL

  19. Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

  20. Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands

  1. The role of vegetation in barriers and the prediction of soil water dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Link, S.O.; Kickert, R.N.; Fayer, M.J.; Gee, G.W. )

    1994-06-01

    The Hanford Barrier Program was developed to design an earthen cover system to inhibit water infiltration, plant and animal intrusion, and wind and water erosion. Plants have a significant role in barrier function. Lysimeter studies indicate that a surface layer of fine soil with deep-rooted plants precludes drainage even with three times normal precipitation. Two simulation models, Soil Water Infiltration and Movement (SWIM) and Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands (SPUR-91) were compared for their ability to predict soil water storage dynamics with and without plants in weighing lysimeters: These models adequately predicted soil water storage dynamics for the weighing lysimeters. The range of room mean square error values for the two models was 7.0 to 19.8.

  2. Molecular level water and solute transport in reverse osmosis membranes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lueptow, Richard M.; Shen, Meng; Keten, Sinan

    2015-11-01

    The water permeability and rejection characteristics of six solutes, methanol, ethanol, 2-propanol, urea, Na+, and Cl-, were studied for a polymeric reverse osmosis (RO) membrane using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations. Results indicate that water flux increases with an increasing fraction of percolated free volume in the membrane polymer structure. Solute molecules display Brownian motion and hop from pore to pore as they pass through the membrane. The solute rejection depends on both the size of the solute molecule and the chemical interaction of the solute with water and the membrane. When the open spaces in the polymeric structure are such that solutes have to shed at least one water molecule from their solvation shell to pass through the membrane molecular structure, the water-solute pair interaction energy governs solute rejection. Organic solutes more easily shed water molecules than ions to more readily pass through the membrane. Hydrogen-bonding sites for molecules like urea also lead to a higher rejection. These findings underline the importance of the solute's solvation shell and solute-water-membrane chemistry in solute transport and rejection in RO membranes. Funded by the Institute for Sustainability and Energy at Northwestern with computing resources from XSEDE (NSF grant ACI-1053575).

  3. Options for water-level control in developed wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kelley, J. R.; Laubhan, M. K.; Reid, F. A.; Wortham, J. S.; Fredrickson, L. H.

    1993-01-01

    Wetland habitats in the United States currently are lost at a rate of 260,000 acres/year (105,218 ha/year). Consequently, water birds concentrate in fewer and smaller areas. Such concentrations may deplete food supplies and influence behavior, physiology, and survival. Continued losses increase the importance of sound management of the remaining wetlands because water birds depend on them. Human activities modified the natural hydrology of most remaining wetlands in the conterminous United States, and such hydrologic alterations frequently reduce wetland productivity. The restoration of original wetland functions and productivity often requires the development of water distribution and discharge systems to emulate natural hydrologic regimes. Construction of levees and correct placement of control structures and water-delivery and water-discharge systems are necessary to (1) create soil and water conditions for the germination of desirable plants, (2) control nuisance vegetation, (3) promote the production of invertebrates, and (4) make foods available for wildlife that depends of wetlands (Leaflets 13.2.1 and 13.4.6). This paper provides basic guidelines for the design of wetlands that benefit wildlife. If biological considerations are not incorporated into such designs, the capability of managing wetlands for water birds is reduced and costs often are greater. Although we address the development of palustrine wetlands in migration and wintering areas, many of the discussed principles are applicable to the development of other wetland types and in other locations.

  4. Biotic ligand model prediction of copper toxicity to daphnids in a range of natural waters in Chile.

    PubMed

    Villavicencio, German; Urrestarazu, Paola; Carvajal, Claudia; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C; Janssen, Colin R; Torres, Juan C; Rodriguez, Patricio H

    2005-05-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the predictive capacity of the biotic ligand model (BLM) for acute copper toxicity to daphnids as applied to a number of freshwaters from Chile and to synthetic laboratory-prepared waters. Thirty-seven freshwater bodies were sampled, chemically characterized, and used to determine the copper concentration associated with the 50% of mortality (LC50) for Daphnia magna, Daphnia pulex, and Daphnia obtusa (native to Chile). The data were then used to run three versions of the acute copper BLM, and the predicted LC50s were compared to the observed ones. The same was done with synthetic assay media at various hardness and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) levels. The BLM versions differed in the affinity constants for some biotic ligand-ion pairs, stability constants for inorganic Cu complexes, and assumptions regarding Cu binding to DOC. All three versions showed a high degree of predictive performance, mostly within a twofold range of observed toxicity values. The D. obtusa data set was used to compare water quality criteria (WQC) derived from the observed toxicity values with those derived from either the BLM or the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) procedure. For most low DOC waters, the three procedures generated similar WQCs. For the high-DOC waters, the EPA-derived criteria were significantly lower, that is, greatly overprotective. The results are also discussed in terms of the validation of the BLM for regulatory use.

  5. Corticosterone levels predict survival probabilities of Galapagos marine iguanas during El Nino events.

    PubMed

    Romero, L M; Wikelski, M

    2001-06-19

    Plasma levels of corticosterone are often used as a measure of "stress" in wild animal populations. However, we lack conclusive evidence that different stress levels reflect different survival probabilities between populations. Galápagos marine iguanas offer an ideal test case because island populations are affected differently by recurring El Niño famine events, and population-level survival can be quantified by counting iguanas locally. We surveyed corticosterone levels in six populations during the 1998 El Niño famine and the 1999 La Niña feast period. Iguanas had higher baseline and handling stress-induced corticosterone concentrations during famine than feast conditions. Corticosterone levels differed between islands and predicted survival through an El Niño period. However, among individuals, baseline corticosterone was only elevated when body condition dropped below a critical threshold. Thus, the population-level corticosterone response was variable but nevertheless predicted overall population health. Our results lend support to the use of corticosterone as a rapid quantitative predictor of survival in wild animal populations.

  6. Basal salivary oxytocin level predicts extra- but not intra-personal dimensions of emotional intelligence.

    PubMed

    Koven, Nancy S; Max, Laura K

    2014-06-01

    A wealth of literature suggests that oxytocin is an important mediator of social cognition, but much of the research to date has relied on pharmaceutical administration methods that can raise oxytocin to artificially high levels. The present study builds upon previous work by examining whether basal oxytocin level predicts intra- and extra-personal (i.e., self- and other-focused) elements of emotional intelligence (EI), independent of shared variance with current mood. The sample included 71 healthy young adults (46 women). Assessment measures included the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test Version 2.0 (MSCEIT), the Trait Meta-Mood Scale, and the Profile of Mood States. Peripheral oxytocin levels were examined with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from saliva after solid phase extraction. Oxytocin level was unrelated to TMMS scores but was positively associated with performance in the Experiential EI domain of the MSCEIT. However, total mood disturbance was positively related to MSCEIT scores. Hierarchical regression analysis indicated that oxytocin level added unique variance to the prediction of MSCEIT performance beyond that of current mood. These results confirm an association between endogenous levels of oxytocin in healthy adults and a subset of EI abilities, including extra-personal emotion recognition and the channeling of emotions to enhance social proficiency.

  7. Elevated Omentin Serum Levels Predict Long-Term Survival in Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Luedde, Mark; Benz, Fabian; Niedeggen, Jennifer; Vucur, Mihael; Hippe, Hans-Joerg; Spehlmann, Martina E.; Schueller, Florian; Loosen, Sven; Frey, Norbert; Trautwein, Christian; Koch, Alexander; Luedde, Tom; Tacke, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Introduction. Omentin, a recently described adipokine, was shown to be involved in the pathophysiology of inflammatory and infectious diseases. However, its role in critical illness and sepsis is currently unknown. Materials and Methods. Omentin serum concentrations were measured in 117 ICU-patients (84 with septic and 33 with nonseptic disease etiology) admitted to the medical ICU. Results were compared with 50 healthy controls. Results. Omentin serum levels of critically ill patients at admission to the ICU or after 72 hours of ICU treatment were similar compared to healthy controls. Moreover, circulating omentin levels were independent of sepsis and etiology of critical illness. Notably, serum concentrations of omentin could not be linked to concentrations of inflammatory cytokines or routinely used sepsis markers. While serum levels of omentin were not predictive for short term survival during ICU treatment, low omentin concentrations were an independent predictor of patients' overall survival. Omentin levels strongly correlated with that of other adipokines (e.g., leptin receptor or adiponectin), which have also been identified as prognostic markers in critical illness. Conclusions. Although circulating omentin levels did not differ between ICU-patients and controls, elevated omentin levels were predictive for an impaired patients' long term survival. PMID:27867249

  8. Prediction of Disease Case Severity Level To Determine INA CBGs Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puspitorini, Sukma; Kusumadewi, Sri; Rosita, Linda

    2017-03-01

    Indonesian Case-Based Groups (INA CBGs) is case-mix payment system using software grouper application. INA CBGs consisting of four digits code where the last digits indicating the severity level of disease cases. Severity level influence by secondary diagnosis (complications and co-morbidity) related to resource intensity level. It is medical resources used to treat a hospitalized patient. Objectives of this research is developing decision support system to predict severity level of disease cases and illustrate INA CBGs rate by using data mining decision tree classification model. Primary diagnosis (DU), first secondary diagnosis (DS 1), and second secondary diagnosis (DS 2) are attributes that used as input of severity level. The training process using C4.5 algorithm and the rules will represent in the IF-THEN form. Credibility of the system analyzed through testing process and confusion matrix present the results. Outcome of this research shows that first secondary diagnosis influence significant to form severity level predicting rules from new disease cases and INA CBGs rate illustration.

  9. Investigating Storm-Induced Total Water Levels on Complex Barred Beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.

    2013-12-01

    Water levels in coastal environments are not static, but rather vary from a range of factors including mean sea level, tides, storm surge, and wave runup. Cumulatively these superimposed factors determine the total water level (TWL), the extent of which has major implications for coastal erosion and inundation during periods of high energy. Storm-induced, super-elevated water levels pose a threat to low lying coastal regions, as clearly demonstrated by recent events such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina. For this reason, the ability to accurately predict the TWL is crucial for both emergency managers and coastal planners. While some components of TWL are well understood (e.g., tides) there is still significant uncertainty in predicting runup, a process that can be a major contributor to instantaneous TWLs. Traditionally, empirical relationships derived from observational field data have been used to estimate runup, including wave setup and both incident and infragravity swash (Stockdon et al., 2006). While these formulations have shown skill in predicting the runup extent on natural beaches, these equations consider only the most basic contributing factors - namely the mean foreshore beach slope, the offshore wave height, and offshore wave period. Not included in these empirical estimates is the role of nearshore morphology on TWLs. However, it has long been recognized that nearshore sandbars act as natural barriers to coastal erosion during storm events by dissipating wave energy far from the beach face. Nonetheless, the influence of nearshore morphology on inner surf zone processes, including wave runup, is poorly understood. Recent pioneering studies (eg., Soldini et al., 2013 and Stephens et al., 2011) have explored the role of simple nearshore features (single Gaussian bars) on swash processes. Many locations in the world, however, are characterized by more complex morphologies such as multiple barred systems. Further, in many such places, including Columbia

  10. Options for future effective water management in Lombok: A multi-level nested framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sjah, Taslim; Baldwin, Claudia

    2014-11-01

    Previous research on water use in Lombok identified reduced water available in springs and limits on seasonal water availability. It foreshadowed increasing competition for water resources in critical areas of Lombok. This study examines preliminary information on local social-institutional arrangements for water allocation in the context of Ostrom's rules for self-governing institutions. We identify robust customary mechanisms for decision-making about water sharing and rules at a local level and suggest areas of further investigation for strengthening multi-level networked and nested frameworks, in collaboration with higher levels of government.

  11. Prediction of full-scale dewatering results of sewage sludges by the physical water distribution.

    PubMed

    Kopp, J; Dichtl, N

    2001-01-01

    The dewaterability of sewage sludge can be described by the total solids concentration of the sludge cake and the polymer-demand for conditioning. The total solids concentration of the sludge cake depends on the physical water distribution. The various types of water in sewage sludge are mainly distinguished by the type and the intensity of their physical bonding to the solids. In a sewage sludge suspension four different types of water can be distinguished. These are the free water, which is not bound to the particles, the interstitial water, which is bound by capillary forces between the sludge flocs, the surface water, which is bound by adhesive forces and intracellular water. Only the share of free water can be separated during mechanical dewatering. It can be shown, that by thermo-gravimeteric measurement of the free water content, an exact prediction of full-scale dewatering results is possible. By separation of all free water during centrifugation the maximum dewatering result is reached. Polymer conditioning increases the velocity of the sludge water release, but the free water content is not influenced by this process. Furthermore it is not possible, to replace the measuring of the water distribution by other individual parameters such as ignition loss.

  12. Regional water-level changes for the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer in Iowa, 1975 to 1997

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turco, Michael J.

    1999-01-01

    Results from a two-layer, ground-water flow model of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1990 were compared to selected measured 1997 water levels. The difference between the simulated water levels and the 1997 maximum measured water levels ranges from 0 to about 150 feet, but most differences are less than 25 feet. The comparison indicates that the model may help estimate future water levels in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer as an aid in managing the resource.

  13. U.S. Geological Survey Water science strategy--observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the nation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evenson, Eric J.; Orndorff, Randall C.; Blome, Charles D.; Böhlke, John Karl; Hershberger, Paul K.; Langenheim, V.E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morlock, Scott E.; Reeves, Howard W.; Verdin, James P.; Weyers, Holly S.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2013-01-01

    This report expands the Water Science Strategy that began with the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). This report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Science Strategy is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences. The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 134-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report.

  14. Sources of Elevated Sodium Levels in Drinking Water...and Recommendations for Reduction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calabrese, Edward J.; Tuthill, Robert W.

    1978-01-01

    Sodium enters drinking water by a variety of human activities and by natural means. Evidence suggests elevated levels of sodium in drinking water may adversely affect health. Action should be taken to reduce the level of human exposure to sodium in drinking water. (RE)

  15. Epstein-Barr virus latency type and spontaneous reactivation predict lytic induction levels.

    PubMed

    Phan, An T; Fernandez, Samantha G; Somberg, Jessica J; Keck, Kristin M; Miranda, Jj L

    2016-05-20

    The human Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) evades the immune system by entering a transcriptionally latent phase in B cells. EBV in tumor cells expresses distinct patterns of genes referred to as latency types. Viruses in tumor cells also display varying levels of lytic transcription resulting from spontaneous reactivation out of latency. We measured this dynamic range of lytic transcription with RNA deep sequencing and observed no correlation with EBV latency types among genetically different viruses, but type I cell lines reveal more spontaneous reactivation than isogenic type III cultures. We further determined that latency type and spontaneous reactivation levels predict the relative amount of induced reactivation generated by cytotoxic chemotherapy drugs. Our work has potential implications for personalizing medicine against EBV-transformed malignancies. Identifying latency type or measuring spontaneous reactivation may provide predictive power in treatment contexts where viral production should be either avoided or coerced.

  16. PLASMA OXYTOCIN LEVELS PREDICT SOCIAL CUE RECOGNITION IN INDIVIDUALS WITH SCHIZOPHRENIA

    PubMed Central

    Strauss, Gregory P.; Keller, William R.; Koenig, James I.; Gold, James M.; Frost, Katherine H.; Buchanan, Robert W.

    2015-01-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  17. Prediction of water quality index in constructed wetlands using support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Mohammadpour, Reza; Shaharuddin, Syafiq; Chang, Chun Kiat; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Ab Ghani, Aminuddin; Chan, Ngai Weng

    2015-04-01

    Poor water quality is a serious problem in the world which threatens human health, ecosystems, and plant/animal life. Prediction of surface water quality is a main concern in water resource and environmental systems. In this research, the support vector machine and two methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and radial basis function (RBF), were used to predict the water quality index (WQI) in a free constructed wetland. Seventeen points of the wetland were monitored twice a month over a period of 14 months, and an extensive dataset was collected for 11 water quality variables. A detailed comparison of the overall performance showed that prediction of the support vector machine (SVM) model with coefficient of correlation (R(2)) = 0.9984 and mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.0052 was either better or comparable with neural networks. This research highlights that the SVM and FFBP can be successfully employed for the prediction of water quality in a free surface constructed wetland environment. These methods simplify the calculation of the WQI and reduce substantial efforts and time by optimizing the computations.

  18. Water-level changes and directions of ground-water flow in the shallow aquifer, Fallon area, Churchill County, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seiler, R.L.; Allander, K.K.

    1993-01-01

    The Truckee-Carson-Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990 directed the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to acquire water rights for wetland areas in the Carson Desert, Nevada. The public is concerned that htis acquisition of water rights and delivery of the water directly to wildlife areas would result in less recharge to the shallow ground water in the Fallon area and cause domestic wells to go dry. In January 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, began a study of the shallow ground-water system in the Fallon area in Churchill County, Nevada. A network of 126 wells in the study area was monitored. Between January and November 1992, water levels in most wells declined, usually less than 2 feet. The maximum measured decline over this period was 2.68 feet in a well near Stillwater Marsh. Between April and July, however, water levels rose in irrigated areas, typically 1 to 2 feet. Newlands Project water deliveries to the study area began soon after the turn of the century. Since then, water levels have risen more than 15 feet across much of the study area. Water lost from unlined irrigtiaon canals caused the stage in Big Soda Lake to rise nearly 60 feet; ground-water levels near the lake have risen 30 to 40 feet. The depth to water in most irrigated areas is now less than 10 feet. The altitude of the water table ranges from 4.025 feet above sea level 11 miles west of Fallon to 3,865 feet in the Stillwater Marsh area. Ground water flows eastward and divides; some flow goes to the northeast toward the Carson Sink and Stillwater areas, and some goes southeastward to Carson Lake.

  19. Prediction of contaminant fate and transport in potable water systems using H2OFate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devarakonda, Venkat; Manickavasagam, Sivakumar; VanBlaricum, Vicki; Ginsberg, Mark

    2009-05-01

    BlazeTech has recently developed a software called H2OFate to predict the fate and transport of chemical and biological contaminants in water distribution systems. This software includes models for the reactions of these contaminants with residual disinfectant in bulk water and at the pipe wall, and their adhesion/reactions with the pipe walls. This software can be interfaced with sensors through SCADA systems to monitor water distribution networks for contamination events and activate countermeasures, as needed. This paper presents results from parametric calculations carried out using H2OFate for a simulated contaminant release into a sample water distribution network.

  20. Prediction of water vapor transport rates across polyvinylchloride packaging systems using a novel radiotracer method

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, R.W.; Mulski, M.J.; Kuu, W.Y. )

    1990-09-01

    A radiotracer method is used to study the transport properties of water vapor in polyvinylchloride (PVC), a plastic commonly used in the packaging of parenteral solutions. Water vapor transport across a PVC film appears to be Fickian in nature. Using the steady-state solution of Fick's second law and the permeability coefficient of water vapor across the PVC film obtained using the described method, the predicted water vapor transport rate (WVTR) for a parenteral solution packaged in PVC is in reasonable agreement with actual WVTR as determined by weight loss under precisely controlled conditions.

  1. Water levels in the Calumet aquifer and their relation to surface-water levels in northern Lake County, Indiana, 1985-92

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greeman, Theodore K.

    1995-01-01

    Analysis of water-level data from the data-collection network indicates that the water table normally slopes toward streams, ditches, sewers, the Indiana Harbor Canal, and Lake Michigan. The slope of the water table toward the Grand Calumet River is greatest in the winter and can decrease to being almost horizontal in the summer. Wells near streams respond quickly to nearby surface-water-level changes. Water-table maps indicate that sewers and dewatering systems are lowering ground-water levels in large areas. Ditches, the Grand Calumet River, and the Indiana Harbor Canal connect the Lake Michigan water level to large parts of the study area. The surface-water stage in the Indiana Harbor Canal, which functions as a ditch, can equal Lake Michigan's stage up to 3.75 miles inland from the lakeshore. Human activity, the stage of Lake Michigan, and the storage capacity of the Calumet aquifer combine to reduce vertical changes in the water table in the study area.

  2. North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    and increasing storminess are exacerbating the vulnerability of coastal communities. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy accounted for more than 60 deaths...water level seems to be out of place in relation to the mean curve. The highest water level at Sandy Hook occurred as a consequence of Hurricane ...and Sandy Hook gages are shown in Figure 11 and Figure 12, respectively. At Kings Point, Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge peak occurred almost at the

  3. Hydrological-niche models predict water plant functional group distributions in diverse wetland types.

    PubMed

    Deane, David C; Nicol, Jason M; Gehrig, Susan L; Harding, Claire; Aldridge, Kane T; Goodman, Abigail M; Brookes, Justin D

    2017-03-06

    Human use of water resources threatens environmental water supplies. If resource managers are to develop policies that avoid unacceptable ecological impacts, some means to predict ecosystem response to changes in water availability is necessary. This is difficult to achieve at spatial-scales relevant for water resource management because of the high natural variability in ecosystem hydrology and ecology. Water plant functional groups classify species with similar hydrological niche preferences together, allowing a qualitative means to generalise community responses to changes in hydrology. We tested the potential for functional groups in making quantitative prediction of water-plant-functional-group distributions across diverse wetland types over a large geographical extent. We sampled wetlands covering a broad range of hydrogeomorphic and salinity conditions in South Australia, collecting both hydrological and floristic data from 697 quadrats across 28 wetland hydrological gradients. We built hydrological-niche models for eight water plant functional groups using a range of candidate models combining different surface inundation metrics. We then tested the predictive performance of top-ranked individual and averaged models for each functional group. Cross validation showed models achieved acceptable predictive performance, with correct classification rates in the range 0.68 - 0.95. Model predictions can be made at any spatial scale that hydrological data are available and could be implemented in a geographical information system. We show the response of water plant functional groups to inundation is consistent enough across diverse wetland types to quantify the probability of hydrological impacts over regional spatial scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  4. Water Wizards: School Program on Water Conservation for Third and Fourth Grade Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts State Water Resources Authority, Boston.

    Water is precious. It is also easy to take for granted. Many people recognize that water is scarce in desert areas. but it is harder to realize that places like Massachusetts could face a shortage of pure drinking water. This manual provides teachers with curriculum resources to introduce concepts of water supply and water conservation to third…

  5. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    , population-level risk prediction for type 2 diabetes using readily available administrative data is feasible and has better prediction performance than classical diabetes risk prediction algorithms on very large populations with missing data. The new model enables intervention allocation at national scale quickly and accurately and recovers potentially novel risk factors at different stages before the disease onset.

  6. Predicting Gene Expression Level from Relative Codon Usage Bias: An Application to Escherichia coli Genome

    PubMed Central

    Roymondal, Uttam; Das, Shibsankar; Sahoo, Satyabrata

    2009-01-01

    We present an expression measure of a gene, devised to predict the level of gene expression from relative codon bias (RCB). There are a number of measures currently in use that quantify codon usage in genes. Based on the hypothesis that gene expressivity and codon composition is strongly correlated, RCB has been defined to provide an intuitively meaningful measure of an extent of the codon preference in a gene. We outline a simple approach to assess the strength of RCB (RCBS) in genes as a guide to their likely expression levels and illustrate this with an analysis of Escherichia coli (E. coli) genome. Our efforts to quantitatively predict gene expression levels in E. coli met with a high level of success. Surprisingly, we observe a strong correlation between RCBS and protein length indicating natural selection in favour of the shorter genes to be expressed at higher level. The agreement of our result with high protein abundances, microarray data and radioactive data demonstrates that the genomic expression profile available in our method can be applied in a meaningful way to the study of cell physiology and also for more detailed studies of particular genes of interest. PMID:19131380

  7. Dynamic behavior of water within a polymer electrolyte fuel cell membrane at low hydration levels.

    PubMed

    Pivovar, Adam M; Pivovar, Bryan S

    2005-01-20

    Protonic conduction across the membrane of a polymer electrolyte fuel cell is intimately related to the dynamic behavior of water present within the membrane. To further the understanding of water dynamics in these materials, quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) has been used to investigate the picosecond dynamic behavior of water within a perfluorosulfonated ionomer (PFSI) membrane under increasing hydration levels from dry to saturation. Evaluation of the elastic incoherent structure factor (EISF) reveals an increase in the characteristic length-scale of confinement as the number of water molecules in the membrane increases, tending to an asymptotic value at saturation. The fraction of elastic incoherent scattering observed at high Q over all hydration levels is well fit by a simple model that assumes a single, nondiffusing hydronium ion per membrane sulfonic acid site. The quasielastic component of the fitted data indicates confined dynamic behavior for scattering vectors less than 0.7 A(-1). As such, the dynamic behavior was interpreted using continuous diffusion confined within a sphere at Q < 0.7 A(-1) and random unconstrained jump diffusion at Q > 0.7 A(-1). As the number of water molecules in the membrane increases, the characteristic residence times obtained from both models is reduced. The increased dynamical frequency is further reflected in the diffusion coefficients predicted by both models. Between low hydration (2 H2O/SO3H) and saturation (16 H2O/SO3H), the continuous spherical diffusion coefficient changes from 0.46 +/- 0.12 to 1.04 +/- 0.12 (10(-5) cm2/s) and jump diffusion indicates an increase from 1.21 +/- 0.03 to 2.14 +/- 0.08 (10(-5) cm2/s). Overall, the dynamic behavior of water has been quantified over different length scale regimes, the results of which may be rationalized on the basis of the formation of water clusters in the hydrophilic domain that expand toward an asymptotic upper limit with increased hydration.

  8. Model Predictive Control application for real time operation of controlled structures for the Water Authority Noorderzijlvest, The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Gooijer, Jan; Knot, Floris; Talsma, Jan

    2015-04-01

    In the Netherlands, flood protection has always been a key issue to protect settlements against storm surges and riverine floods. Whereas flood protection traditionally focused on structural measures, nowadays the availability of meteorological and hydrological forecasts enable the application of more advanced real-time control techniques for operating the existing hydraulic infrastructure in an anticipatory and more efficient way. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a powerful technique to derive optimal control variables with the help of model based predictions evaluated against a control objective. In a project for the regional water authority Noorderzijlvest in the north of the Netherlands, it has been shown that MPC can increase the safety level of the system during flood events by an anticipatory pre-release of water. Furthermore, energy costs of pumps can be reduced by making tactical use of the water storage and shifting pump activities during normal operating conditions to off-peak hours. In this way cheap energy is used in combination of gravity flow through gates during low tide periods. MPC has now been implemented for daily operational use of the whole water system of the water authority Noorderzijlvest. The system developed to a real time decision support system which not only supports the daily operation but is able to directly implement the optimal control settings at the structures. We explain how we set-up and calibrated a prediction model (RTC-Tools) that is accurate and fast enough for optimization purposes, and how we integrated it in the operational flood early warning system (Delft-FEWS). Beside the prediction model, the weights and the factors of the objective function are an important element of MPC, since they shape the control objective. We developed special features in Delft-FEWS to allow the operators to adjust the objective function in order to meet changing requirements and to evaluate different control strategies.

  9. Predicting spatial kelp abundance in shallow coastal waters using the acoustic ground discrimination system RoxAnn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielck, F.; Bartsch, I.; Hass, H. C.; Wölfl, A.-C.; Bürk, D.; Betzler, C.

    2014-04-01

    Kelp forests represent a major habitat type in coastal waters worldwide and their structure and distribution is predicted to change due to global warming. Despite their ecological and economical importance, there is still a lack of reliable spatial information on their abundance and distribution. In recent years, various hydroacoustic mapping techniques for sublittoral environments evolved. However, in turbid coastal waters, such as off the island of Helgoland (Germany, North Sea), the kelp vegetation is present in shallow water depths normally excluded from hydroacoustic surveys. In this study, single beam survey data consisting of the two seafloor parameters roughness and hardness were obtained with RoxAnn from water depth between 2 and 18 m. Our primary aim was to reliably detect the kelp forest habitat with different densities and distinguish it from other vegetated zones. Five habitat classes were identified using underwater-video and were applied for classification of acoustic signatures. Subsequently, spatial prediction maps were produced via two classification approaches: Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and manual classification routine (MC). LDA was able to distinguish dense kelp forest from other habitats (i.e. mixed seaweed vegetation, sand, and barren bedrock), but no variances in kelp density. In contrast, MC also provided information on medium dense kelp distribution which is characterized by intermediate roughness and hardness values evoked by reduced kelp abundances. The prediction maps reach accordance levels of 62% (LDA) and 68% (MC). The presence of vegetation (kelp and mixed seaweed vegetation) was determined with higher prediction abilities of 75% (LDA) and 76% (MC). Since the different habitat classes reveal acoustic signatures that strongly overlap, the manual classification method was more appropriate for separating different kelp forest densities and low-lying vegetation. It became evident that the occurrence of kelp in this area is not

  10. Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

    2014-12-01

    The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup

  11. Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

    2015-09-15

    The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible.

  12. Modeling Tidal Wetland Resiliency in the Face of Predicted Accelerated Sea-Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schile, L. M.; Callaway, J.; Morris, J. T.; Kelly, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tidal wetland ecosystems are dynamic coastal habitats that, in California, often occur at the complex nexus of aquatic environments, diked and leveed baylands, and modified upland habitat. Because of their prime location and rich peat soil, many wetlands have been reduced, degraded, and/or destroyed, and yet their important role in carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment filtering, and as habitat requires us to further examine their sustainability in light of predicted climate change. Predictions of climate change effects for the San Francisco Bay Estuary present a future with reduced summer freshwater input and increased sea levels. We examined the applicability and accuracy of the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a zero-dimensional model that models organic and inorganic accretion rates under a given rate of sea-level rise. MEM was calibrated using data collected from salt and brackish marshes in the San Francisco Bay Estuary to examine wetland resiliency under a range of sea-level rise and suspended sediment concentration scenarios. At sea-level rise rates 100 cm/century and lower, wetlands remained vegetated. Once sea levels rise above 100 cm, marshes begin to lose ability to maintain elevation, and the presence of adjacent upland habitat becomes increasingly important for marsh migration. The negative effects of sea-level rise on elevations were compounded as suspended sediment concentrations decreased. Results from this study emphasize that the wetland landscape in the bay is threatened with rising sea levels, and there are a limited number of wetlands that will be able to migrate to higher ground as sea levels rise.

  13. Non-Cholesterol Sterol Levels Predict Hyperglycemia and Conversion to Type 2 Diabetes in Finnish Men

    PubMed Central

    Cederberg, Henna; Gylling, Helena; Miettinen, Tatu A.; Paananen, Jussi; Vangipurapu, Jagadish; Pihlajamäki, Jussi; Kuulasmaa, Teemu; Stančáková, Alena; Smith, Ulf; Kuusisto, Johanna; Laakso, Markku

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the levels of non-cholesterol sterols as predictors for the development of hyperglycemia (an increase in the glucose area under the curve in an oral glucose tolerance test) and incident type 2 diabetes in a 5-year follow-up study of a population-based cohort of Finnish men (METSIM Study, N = 1,050) having non-cholesterol sterols measured at baseline. Additionally we determined the association of 538,265 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) with non-cholesterol sterol levels in a cross-sectional cohort of non-diabetic offspring of type 2 diabetes (the Kuopio cohort of the EUGENE2 Study, N = 273). We found that in a cross-sectional METSIM Study the levels of sterols indicating cholesterol absorption were reduced as a function of increasing fasting glucose levels, whereas the levels of sterols indicating cholesterol synthesis were increased as a function of increasing 2-hour glucose levels. A cholesterol synthesis marker desmosterol significantly predicted an increase, and two absorption markers (campesterol and avenasterol) a decrease in the risk of hyperglycemia and incident type 2 diabetes in a 5-year follow-up of the METSIM cohort, mainly attributable to insulin sensitivity. A SNP of ABCG8 was associated with fasting plasma glucose levels in a cross-sectional study but did not predict hyperglycemia or incident type 2 diabetes. In conclusion, the levels of some, but not all non-cholesterol sterols are markers of the worsening of hyperglycemia and type 2 diabetes. PMID:23840693

  14. A comparison of simulation models for predicting soil water dynamics in bare and vegetated lysimeters

    SciTech Connect

    Link, S.O.; Kickert, R.N.; Fayer, M.J.; Gee, G.W.

    1993-06-01

    This report describes the results of simulation models used to predict soil water storage dynamics at the Field Lysimeter Test Facility (FLTF) weighing lysimeters. The objectives of this research is to develop the capability to predict soil water storage dynamics with plants in support of water infiltration control studies for the Hanford Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program. It is important to gain confidence in one`s ability to simulate soil water dynamics over long time periods to assess the barrier`s ability to prevent drainage. Two models were compared for their ability to simulate soil water storage dynamics with and without plants in weighing lysimeters, the soil water infiltration and movement (SWIM) and the simulation of production and utilization of rangelands (SPUR-91) models. These models adequately simulated soil water storage dynamics for the weighing lysimeters. The range of root mean square error values for the two models was 7.0 to 19.8. This compares well with the range reported by Fayer et al. (1992) for the bare soil data sets of 8.1 to 22.1. Future research will test the predictive capability of these models for longer term lysimeter data sets and for historical data sets collected in various plant community types.

  15. Seasonal variation of water level, water and soil temperature, chemistry, and stable isotopes in hyporheic zone of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeon, W. H.; Lee, J. Y.

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of study was to evaluate interaction between groundwater and stream water in hyporheic zone using water level, water temperature, soil temperature, chemistry, and stable isotopes. We installed seven piezometers (IYHW1 to 7) in the streambed that across stream in every 10 m and in depth of 0.85 to 1.54 m, a device that measure stage level nearby IYHW1, and devices that measure soil temperature in every 10 cm down to 50 cm nearby each piezometer was installed. We monitored water level and water temperature every hour from automatic transducers at the piezometers and the stage level, and soil temperatures were monitored every two hours. We took samples from the hyporheic water, stream water, and nearby groundwater to analysis chemical and isotopic compositions. The water level difference between stream water and hyporheic waters indicated that groundwater was downwelling in wet season and upwelling in dry season. The groundwater temperature remained steady in different seasons, but the stream water represented a frequent fluctuation with large amplitude. The hyporheic waters and soil temperature represented intermediate variation characteristics. The chemical compositions were not able to indicate in interaction of groundwater and stream water because no distinctive difference in seasonal variation in waters. The quantity of isotopic compositions of oxygen and hydrogen determined from using mixing ratio indicated that downwelling in wet season and upwelling in dry season. This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (NRF-2011-0007232).

  16. Prediction of the mid-tracheal level using surface anatomical landmarks in adults

    PubMed Central

    Jang, Young-Eun; Kim, Eun-Hee; Song, In-Kyung; Lee, Ji-Hyun; Ryu, Ho-Geoul; Kim, Hee-Soo; Kim, Jin-Tae

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Endotracheal tube (ETT) should be placed at the optimal level to avoid single lung ventilation or accidental extubation. This study was performed to estimate the mid-tracheal level by using surface anatomical landmarks in adult patients. Neck computed tomography images of 329 adult patients between the ages of 16 and 79 years were reviewed. In the midline sagittal plane, the levels corresponding to the vocal cords, cricoid cartilage, suprasternal notch, manubriosternal junction, and carina were identified. The surface distances from the cricoid cartilage to the suprasternal notch (extCC-SSN) and that from the suprasternal notch to the manubriosternal junction (extSSN-MSJ) were measured. The relationship between mid-tracheal level and the surface distances was analyzed using Bland–Altman plot. The difference between the extCC-SSN and the mid-tracheal level was −6.6 (12.5) mm, and the difference between the extSSN-MSJ and the mid-tracheal level was −19.2 (6.1) mm. The difference between the extCC-SSN and the mid-tracheal level was smaller in females compared with males [−1.7 (11.7) mm vs −12.8 (10.7) mm; P < 0.001]. The mid-tracheal level, which is helpful in planning the insertion depth of an ETT, can be predicted by the surface distance between the cricoid cartilage and suprasternal notch in adults, especially in females. PMID:28328810

  17. [Fluoride levels in commercial dentifrices and drinking water in Algeria].

    PubMed

    Merghache, D; Bellout, B; Merghache, S; Boucherit-Atmani, Z

    2011-12-01

    More and more scientific evidence show that fluorides have a cariostatic action to the plaque-saliva-tooth interface during cariogenous dissolution. Fluorides slow down demineralization and enhance remineralization. Their action is optimal, in the oral environment, when used at low concentrations on a continuous basis. The use of the fluorinated toothpastes during brushing of the teeth is a simple, rational method of daily topics application of fluorine, largely used in the context of prevention of dental caries and which can even be regarded as a public health measure. The water ingestion fluorinated represents itself an excellent average of the local application of fluorine. Our work concerned a quantitative study of fluorine in toothpaste and drinking water, and comparative between the local product and the imported one for the toothpastes, and the mineral water and public supply. The standard method of fluorine based on the potentiometry and distillation has shown that 50% of the tested toothpastes contain adequate concentration so that a product of dental care fights against decay. The Tlemcen tap water contains acceptable fluorine content, but the mineral water, with an excessive contribution, can cause fluorose. Of this, we can deduce that a topical application of a suitable quantity of fluorine on a daily basis in accordance with the precautions is not only the prevention of dental caries, but also to stabilize it if it already exists.

  18. Prediction of vegetation anomalies to improve food security and water management in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asoka, Akarsh; Mishra, Vimal

    2015-07-01

    Prediction of vegetation anomalies at regional scales is essential for management of food and water resources. Forecast of vegetation anomalies at 1-3 months lead time can help in decision making. Here we show that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along with other hydroclimatic variables (soil moisture and sea surface temperature) can be effectively used to predict vegetation anomalies in India. The spatiotemporal analysis of NDVI showed significant greening over the region during the period of 1982-2013. The root-zone soil moisture showed a positive correlation with NDVI, whereas the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index (Nino 3.4) is negatively correlated in most of the regions. We extended this relationship to develop a model to predict NDVI in 1 to 3 months lead time. The predicted vegetation anomalies compare well with observations, which can be effectively utilized in early warning and better planning in water resources and agricultural sectors in India.

  19. Operational Internet-based System For Prediction of The Pollution In Coastal Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korotenko, K. A.

    An operational integrated system linking observing PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System, NOAA) and Coastal Ocean Forecasting System (COFS, NOAA) based on a coupled atmospheric-ocean model is developed for real-time diagnostic and forecasting transport of pollution in coastal waters. Both, sensor and modeled at- mosphere and ocean data are accessible via Internet and utilized by a numerical trans- port model based on the random walk particle technique. PORTS data: water level, current (ADCP), conductivity, temperature, and atmospheric data files contain most recent observation. These files are overwritten every 6 min. COFS data: 3-D ocean circulation model produces 24-hour simulations of temperature, salinity, surface el- evation, and currents for region off the U.S. East Coast from ~30 to 47 N and out to 50W. The model is driven at ocean surface boundary by heat, moisture, and mo- mentum fluxes provided by NCEPSs Eta-32 mesoscale atmospheric forecast model. Transport Model: the model was developed for transport of oil spills and divided into three major modules: input, trajectory and fate prediction algorithms, and output; the latter, in turn, is subdivided into the oil data output and environmental data output. The oil spill prediction procedure is split into two parts: (1) assimilation and utilization of the environmental data; and (2) oil spill modeling to predict the three-dimensional motion and fate of individual particles (oil droplets), the sum of which constitutes an oil spill. Among the processes affecting the fate of oil, advection, turbulent diffusion, evaporation, and decay are included; the decay is modeled as the combined effect of all the biochemical and physical mechanisms that decompose oil. Initially, oil con- sists of eight hydrocarbon fractions. The distribution of the number of particles within each fraction is also initially assigned and distributed randomly. Within each fraction, each droplet has randomly assigned its own half

  20. Analysis of water levels in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bright, D.J.; Watkins, S.A.; Lisle, B.A.

    2001-01-01

    Analysis of water levels in 21 wells in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site, provides information on the accuracy of hydraulic-head calculations, temporal water-level trends, and potential causes of water-level fluctuations. Accurate hydraulic heads are particularly important in Frenchman Flat where the hydraulic gradients are relatively flat (less than 1 foot per mile) in the alluvial aquifer. Temporal water-level trends with magnitudes near or exceeding the regional hydraulic gradient may have a substantial effect on ground-water flow directions. Water-level measurements can be adjusted for the effects of barometric pressure, formation