Rising ground-water level in downtown Louisville, Kentucky, 1972-1977

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kernodle, J.M.; Whitesides, D.V.

1977-01-01

Ground-water levels in the alluvial aquifer in Louisville, Jefferson County, Kentucky, are rising at a rate which could cause wet basements and possible structural damage tc buildings in the downtown area by 1982. The predicted water level for 1982 is based on the nearly linear increase which has been observed from 1972 to 1977, during which period a rise of as much as 32 feet was recorded in water-level observation wells. Foremost among the possible causes of the rise is a decrease in withdrawal of ground water.

Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.

PubMed

Anderegg, William R L; Wolf, Adam; Arango-Velez, Adriana; Choat, Brendan; Chmura, Daniel J; Jansen, Steven; Kolb, Thomas; Li, Shan; Meinzer, Frederick; Pita, Pilar; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sperry, John S; Wolfe, Brett T; Pacala, Stephen

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.

Low-Level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation in South Florida.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-02-01

Af" -Ao97 55 ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY URBANA F/6 4/2 LOWLEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE PREDICTION OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPIT-ETC(U) FEB 81 A I WATSON. R L...varying meteorological cond’tions and ti: == UNCLASSIFIED of day. SECURITY CLASSIFICATIOR OF TNIS PAGE (Whven Data Etered) State Water Survey...1981 1: 4. i0 The project "Low-level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation" is a coordinated research effort by the State Water

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R. D.; de Boer, Willem F.; Stillman, Richard A.

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R D; de Boer, Willem F; Stillman, Richard A

2016-01-01

Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments.

Office of Water Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Toggle navigation National Water Center Home (current) Visualize Map Image Viewer What's New About National Water Center National Water Model National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Welcome to the Office of Water Prediction Scientific excellence and innovation driving water

Selected water-level records for Oklahoma, 1976-1978

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goemaat, Robert L.; Spiser, Dannie E.

1979-01-01

A systematic program to collect water-level records in Oklahoma began in 1937. The objectives of this program are (1) to provide long-term records of water-level fluctuations in representative wells, (2) to facilitate the prediction of water-level trends and indicate future availability of ground-water supplies, and (3) to provide information for use in basic research.Water-level data in table 1 are from wells that are measured annually, prior to the irrigation season, to achieve the most natural representation of the static water level. Water-level measurements listed in the column under 1976 may have been made during December 1975 or January, February, March, April, or May, 1976. Measurements listed in the column 1977 may have been made during December 1976 or January, February, March, or April 1977. Figure 1 shows the counties and number of wells therein, where data were obtained for this report.Records of water levels in Oklahoma are collected through a cooperative program by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The records are tabulated and published by the U.S. Geological Survey on an annual basis.The stratigraphic nomenclature and age determinations used in this report are those accepted by the Oklahoma Geological Survey and do not necessarily agree with those of the U.S. Geological Survey except for the Cheyenne Sandstone which is considered to be Purgatoire Sandstone by the Oklahoma Geological Survey (Robert 0. Fay, Personal Communication, August 9, 1979).

Offset-Free Model Predictive Control of Open Water Channel Based on Moving Horizon Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekin Aydin, Boran; Rutten, Martine

2016-04-01

Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control option which is increasingly used by operational water managers for managing water systems. The explicit consideration of constraints and multi-objective management are important features of MPC. However, due to the water loss in open water systems by seepage, leakage and evaporation a mismatch between the model and the real system will be created. These mismatch affects the performance of MPC and creates an offset from the reference set point of the water level. We present model predictive control based on moving horizon estimation (MHE-MPC) to achieve offset free control of water level for open water canals. MHE-MPC uses the past predictions of the model and the past measurements of the system to estimate unknown disturbances and the offset in the controlled water level is systematically removed. We numerically tested MHE-MPC on an accurate hydro-dynamic model of the laboratory canal UPC-PAC located in Barcelona. In addition, we also used well known disturbance modeling offset free control scheme for the same test case. Simulation experiments on a single canal reach show that MHE-MPC outperforms disturbance modeling offset free control scheme.

Understanding spatial variability in extreme estuarine water levels to inform better coastal management practise.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyddon, Charlotte; Plater, Andy, ,, Prof.; Brown, Jenny, ,, Dr.; Leonardi, Nicoletta, ,, Dr.

2017-04-01

Coastal zones worldwide are subject to short term, local variations in sea-level, particularly communities and industries developed on estuaries. Astronomical high tides, meteorological storm surges and increased river flow present a combined flood hazard. This can elevate water level at the coast above predicted levels, generating extreme water levels. These contributions can also interact to alter the phase and amplitude of tides and surges, and thus cause significant mismatches between the predicted and observed water level. The combined effect of tide, surge, river flow and their interactions are the key to understanding and assessing flood risk in estuarine environments for design purposes. Delft3D-FLOW, a hydrodynamic model which solves the unsteady shallow-water equation, is used to access spatial variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England. Long-term tide gauge records from Ilfracombe and Mumbles and river level data from Sandhurst are analysed to generate a series of extreme water level events, representing the 90th, 95th and 99th percentile conditions, to force the model boundaries. To separate out the time-varying contributions of tidal, fluvial, meteorological processes and their interactions the model is run with different physical forcing. A low pass filter is applied to "de-tide" the residual water elevation, to separate out the time-varying meteorological residual and the tide-surge interactions within the surge. The filtered surge is recombined with the predicted tide so the peak occurs at different times relative to high water. The resulting time series are used to force the model boundary to identify how the interactive processes influence the timing of extreme water level across the estuarine domain. This methodology is first validated using the most extreme event on record to ensure that modelled extreme water levels can be predicted with confidence

Reservoir water level forecasting using group method of data handling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaji, Amir Hossein; Bonakdari, Hossein; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2018-06-01

Accurately forecasted reservoir water level is among the most vital data for efficient reservoir structure design and management. In this study, the group method of data handling is combined with the minimum description length method to develop a very practical and functional model for predicting reservoir water levels. The models' performance is evaluated using two groups of input combinations based on recent days and recent weeks. Four different input combinations are considered in total. The data collected from Chahnimeh#1 Reservoir in eastern Iran are used for model training and validation. To assess the models' applicability in practical situations, the models are made to predict a non-observed dataset for the nearby Chahnimeh#4 Reservoir. According to the results, input combinations (L, L -1) and (L, L -1, L -12) for recent days with root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.3478 and 0.3767, respectively, outperform input combinations (L, L -7) and (L, L -7, L -14) for recent weeks with RMSE of 0.3866 and 0.4378, respectively, with the dataset from https://www.typingclub.com/st. Accordingly, (L, L -1) is selected as the best input combination for making 7-day ahead predictions of reservoir water levels.

Predicting Salmonella populations from biological, chemical, and physical indicators in Florida surface waters.

PubMed

McEgan, Rachel; Mootian, Gabriel; Goodridge, Lawrence D; Schaffner, Donald W; Danyluk, Michelle D

2013-07-01

Coliforms, Escherichia coli, and various physicochemical water characteristics have been suggested as indicators of microbial water quality or index organisms for pathogen populations. The relationship between the presence and/or concentration of Salmonella and biological, physical, or chemical indicators in Central Florida surface water samples over 12 consecutive months was explored. Samples were taken monthly for 12 months from 18 locations throughout Central Florida (n = 202). Air and water temperature, pH, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), turbidity, and conductivity were measured. Weather data were obtained from nearby weather stations. Aerobic plate counts and most probable numbers (MPN) for Salmonella, E. coli, and coliforms were performed. Weak linear relationships existed between biological indicators (E. coli/coliforms) and Salmonella levels (R(2) < 0.1) and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels (R(2) < 0.1). The average rainfall (previous day, week, and month) before sampling did not correlate well with bacterial levels. Logistic regression analysis showed that E. coli concentration can predict the probability of enumerating selected Salmonella levels. The lack of good correlations between biological indicators and Salmonella levels and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels shows that the relationship between pathogens and indicators is complex. However, Escherichia coli provides a reasonable way to predict Salmonella levels in Central Florida surface water through logistic regression.

Effects of Barometric Fluctuations on Well Water-Level Measurements and Aquifer Test Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spane, Frank A.

1999-12-16

This report examines the effects of barometric fluctuations on well water-level measurements and evaluates adjustment and removal methods for determining areal aquifer head conditions and aquifer test analysis. Two examples of Hanford Site unconfined aquifer tests are examined that demonstrate baro-metric response analysis and illustrate the predictive/removal capabilities of various methods for well water-level and aquifer total head values. Good predictive/removal characteristics were demonstrated with best corrective results provided by multiple-regression deconvolution methods.

Estimating Water Levels with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, E.; Russo, T. A.; Zentner, M.; May, J.; Nguy-Robertson, A. L.

2016-12-01

Reservoirs serve multiple functions and are vital for storage, electricity generation, and flood control. For many areas, traditional ground-based reservoir measurements may not be available or data dissemination may be problematic. Consistent monitoring of reservoir levels in data-poor areas can be achieved through remote sensing, providing information to researchers and the international community. Estimates of trends and relative reservoir volume can be used to identify water supply vulnerability, anticipate low power generation, and predict flood risk. Image processing with automated cloud computing provides opportunities to study multiple geographic areas in near real-time. We demonstrate the prediction capability of a cloud environment for identifying water trends at reservoirs in the US, and then apply the method to data-poor areas in North Korea, Iran, Azerbaijan, Zambia, and India. The Google Earth Engine cloud platform hosts remote sensing data and can be used to automate reservoir level estimation with multispectral imagery. We combine automated cloud-based analysis from Landsat image classification to identify reservoir surface area trends and radar altimetry to identify reservoir level trends. The study estimates water level trends using three years of data from four domestic reservoirs to validate the remote sensing method, and five foreign reservoirs to demonstrate the method application. We report correlations between ground-based reservoir level measurements in the US and our remote sensing methods, and correlations between the cloud analysis and altimetry data for reservoirs in data-poor areas. The availability of regular satellite imagery and an automated, near real-time application method provides the necessary datasets for further temporal analysis, reservoir modeling, and flood forecasting. All statements of fact, analysis, or opinion are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or any

Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Based on AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuai; Sun, Anqi

2017-01-01

Nowadays, the shortage of water resources is a threat to us. In order to solve the problem of water resources restricted by varieties of factors, this paper establishes a water resources evaluation index model (WREI), which adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) algorithm. After considering influencing factors of water resources, we ignore secondary factors and then hierarchical approach the main factors according to the class, set up a three-layer structure. The top floor is for WREI. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine weight first, and then use fuzzy judgment to judge target, so the comprehensive use of the two algorithms reduce the subjective influence of AHP and overcome the disadvantages of multi-level evaluation. To prove the model, we choose India as a target region. On the basis of water resources evaluation index model, we use Matlab and combine grey prediction with linear prediction to discuss the ability to provide clean water in India and the trend of India’s water resources changing in the next 15 years. The model with theoretical support and practical significance will be of great help to provide reliable data support and reference for us to get plans to improve water quality.

Predicting Salmonella Populations from Biological, Chemical, and Physical Indicators in Florida Surface Waters

PubMed Central

McEgan, Rachel; Mootian, Gabriel; Goodridge, Lawrence D.; Schaffner, Donald W.

2013-01-01

Coliforms, Escherichia coli, and various physicochemical water characteristics have been suggested as indicators of microbial water quality or index organisms for pathogen populations. The relationship between the presence and/or concentration of Salmonella and biological, physical, or chemical indicators in Central Florida surface water samples over 12 consecutive months was explored. Samples were taken monthly for 12 months from 18 locations throughout Central Florida (n = 202). Air and water temperature, pH, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), turbidity, and conductivity were measured. Weather data were obtained from nearby weather stations. Aerobic plate counts and most probable numbers (MPN) for Salmonella, E. coli, and coliforms were performed. Weak linear relationships existed between biological indicators (E. coli/coliforms) and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1) and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1). The average rainfall (previous day, week, and month) before sampling did not correlate well with bacterial levels. Logistic regression analysis showed that E. coli concentration can predict the probability of enumerating selected Salmonella levels. The lack of good correlations between biological indicators and Salmonella levels and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels shows that the relationship between pathogens and indicators is complex. However, Escherichia coli provides a reasonable way to predict Salmonella levels in Central Florida surface water through logistic regression. PMID:23624476

Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

2014-05-01

Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

Predicting water table response to rainfall events, central Florida.

PubMed

van Gaalen, J F; Kruse, S; Lafrenz, W B; Burroughs, S M

2013-01-01

A rise in water table in response to a rainfall event is a complex function of permeability, specific yield, antecedent soil-water conditions, water table level, evapotranspiration, vegetation, lateral groundwater flow, and rainfall volume and intensity. Predictions of water table response, however, commonly assume a linear relationship between response and rainfall based on cumulative analysis of water level and rainfall logs. By identifying individual rainfall events and responses, we examine how the response/rainfall ratio varies as a function of antecedent water table level (stage) and rainfall event size. For wells in wetlands and uplands in central Florida, incorporating stage and event size improves forecasting of water table rise by more than 30%, based on 10 years of data. At the 11 sites studied, the water table is generally least responsive to rainfall at smallest and largest rainfall event sizes and at lower stages. At most sites the minimum amount of rainfall required to induce a rise in water table is fairly uniform when the water table is within 50 to 100 cm of land surface. Below this depth, the minimum typically gradually increases with depth. These observations can be qualitatively explained by unsaturated zone flow processes. Overall, response/rainfall ratios are higher in wetlands and lower in uplands, presumably reflecting lower specific yields and greater lateral influx in wetland sites. Pronounced depth variations in rainfall/response ratios appear to correlate with soil layer boundaries, where corroborating data are available. © 2012, The Author(s). Groundwater © 2012, National Ground Water Association.

Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: making water supply levels transparent to water users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens; Vuren Saskia, Van; der Vat Marnix, Van

2016-04-01

To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, assessed the impact of climate change and socio-economic development, and explored strategies to deal with these impacts. The Programme initiated a joint approach to water supply management with stakeholders and developed a national adaptation plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions. The adaptation plan consists of a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of possible actions and measures through time - to achieve targets while responding in a flexible manner to uncertain developments over time, allowing room to respond to new opportunities and insights. With regard to fresh water allocation, the Delta Programme stated that supplying water of sufficient quality is a shared responsibility that requires cohesive efforts among users in the main and regional water system. The national and local authorities and water users involved agreed that the water availability and, where relevant, the water quality should be as transparent and predictable as possible under normal, dry and extremely dry conditions. They therefore introduced the concept of "water supply service levels", which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period, for all regions and all relevant water users in the Netherlands. The service levels form an addition to the present policy and should be decided on by 2021. At present water allocation during periods of (expected) water shortage occurs according to a prearranged ranking system (a water hierarchy scheme based on a list of priorities), if water availability drops below a critical low level. The aim is to have supply levels available that are based on the probability of occurrence and economic impact of water shortage, and that are transparent for all water users in the regional water systems and the main water system. As part of the European project

How Historical Information Can Improve Extreme Value Analysis of Coastal Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Cozannet, G.; Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

2016-12-01

The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others. In a recent work (Bulteau et al., 2015), we investigated how historical information of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativize such outlying observations. We adapted a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, initially developed in the hydrology field (Reis and Stedinger, 2005), to the specific case of coastal water levels. We applied this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide gauge measurements and 8 historical events since 1890, the results showed a significant decrease in statistical uncertainties on return levels when historical information is used. Also, Xynthia's water level no longer appeared as an outlier and we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

Water-level monitoring in the area of the Palmdale Uplift, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamar, D.L.; Merifield, P.M.

1978-01-01

Abnormal behavior of water levels in wells has been observed prior to a number of earthquakes. For instance, water-level minima have been noted in the Cienega Winery well before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. Abnormal water-level fluctuations were used in conjunctions with other precursors to predict the February 4, 1975, Haicheng earthquake in northeastern China. That such changes should occur prior to earthquakes is not surprising. Ground water that occupies the void spaces in porous rocks or alluvium can be expected to rise in wells when an aquifer is squeezed and fall when it is distended. COnfined aquifers, in particualr, have been found to be highly sensitive to Earth strain changes. 

A Two-stage Approach for Water Demand Prediction under Constrained total water use and Water Environmental Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.; Xiaohong, C.; Lin, K.; Wang, Z.

2016-12-01

Water demand (WD) is the basis for water allocation (WA) because it can fully reflect the pressure on water resources from population and socioeconomic development. To deal with the great uncertainties and the absence of consideration of water environmental capacity (WEC) in traditional water demand prediction methods, e.g. Statistical models, System Dynamics and quota method, this study develops a two-stage approach to predict WD under constrained total water use from the perspective of ecological restraint. Regional total water demand (RTWD) is constrained by WEC, available water resources amount and total water use quota. Based on RTWD, WD is allocated in two stages according to the game theory, including predicting sub regional total water demand (SRWD) by calculating the sub region weights based on the selected indicators of socioeconomic development and predicting industrial water demand (IWD) according to the game theory. Taking the Dongjiang river basin, South China as an example of WD prediction, according to its constrained total water use quota and WEC, RTWD in 2020 is 9.83 billion m3, and IWD for agriculture, industry, service, ecology (off-stream), and domesticity are 2.32 billion m3, 3.79 billion m3, 0.75 billion m3 , 0.18 billion m3and 1.79 billion m3 respectively. The results from this study provide useful insights for effective water allocation under climate change and the strict policy of water resources management.

Predicted water-level and water-quality effects of artificial recharge in the Upper Coachella Valley, California, using a finite-element digital model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Lindsay A.

1978-01-01

From 1936 to 1974, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the Palm Springs area and 60 feet in the Palm Desert area of the upper Coachella Valley, Calif. Water from the Colorado River Aqueduct is presently being recharged to the basin. The dissolved-solids concentration of native ground water in the recharge area is about 210 mg/liter and that of recharge water ranges from 600 to 750 mg/liter. A finite-element model indicates that without recharge the 1974 water levels in the Palm Springs area will decline 200 feet by the year 2000 because of pumpage. If the aquifer is recharged at a rate from about 7 ,500 acre-feet per year in 1973 increasing to 61,200 acre-feet per year in 1990 and thereafter, the water level in the Palm Springs area will decline about 20 feet below the 1974 level by 1991 and recover to the 1974 level by 2000. The solute-transport finite-element model of the recharge area indicates that the artificial recharge plume (bounded by the 300-mg/liter line) will move about 1.1 miles downgradient of the recharge ponds by 1981 and about 4.5 miles from the ponds by 2000. 

Transforming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Water Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graziano, T. M.; Clark, E. P.

2016-12-01

As a significant step forward to transform NOAA's water prediction services, NOAA plans to implement a new National Water Model (NWM) Version 1.0 in August 2016. A continental scale water resources model, the NWM is an evolution of the WRF-Hydro architecture developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It represents NOAA's first foray into high performance computing for water prediction and will expand NOAA's current water quantity forecasts, at approximately 4000 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gage sites across the country, to forecasts of flow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow water equivalent and other parameters for 2.7 million stream reaches nationwide. This new guidance will be provided to NOAA's River Forecast Centers around the country and other field offices, along with guidance for evaluation and validation, and tools to visualize these data and enhance decision support. Initially, a subset if these data will be available via NOAA's Office of Water Prediction web site and the full output of the NWM simulations will be available via the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). These enhancements in turn will improve NWS' ability to deliver impact-based decision support services nationwide through the provision of short through extended range, high fidelity "street level" water forecasts and warnings. Subsequent planned out-year enhancements to the NWM include the expanded assimilation of anthropogenic data, an operational nest to provide higher resolution forecasts needed for inundation mapping, and tackling the deeper challenges associated with drought and other water resources issues. The NWM is a NOAA-led interagency effort that relies on the National Hydrographic Dataset of the USGS and EPA, as well as the National Streamflow Information Program of the USGS. Its development continues to be advanced in partnership with NCAR, and a partnership with the Consortium for the Advancement of

Finite Difference Formulation for Prediction of Water Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johari, Hanani; Rusli, Nursalasawati; Yahya, Zainab

2018-03-01

Water is an important component of the earth. Human being and living organisms are demand for the quality of water. Human activity is one of the causes of the water pollution. The pollution happened give bad effect to the physical and characteristic of water contents. It is not practical to monitor all aspects of water flow and transport distribution. So, in order to help people to access to the polluted area, a prediction of water pollution concentration must be modelled. This study proposed a one-dimensional advection diffusion equation for predicting the water pollution concentration transport. The numerical modelling will be produced in order to predict the transportation of water pollution concentration. In order to approximate the advection diffusion equation, the implicit Crank Nicolson is used. For the purpose of the simulation, the boundary condition and initial condition, the spatial steps and time steps as well as the approximations of the advection diffusion equation have been encoded. The results of one dimensional advection diffusion equation have successfully been used to predict the transportation of water pollution concentration by manipulating the velocity and diffusion parameters.

Identify the dominant variables to predict stream water temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chien, H.; Flagler, J.

2016-12-01

Stream water temperature is a critical variable controlling water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems. Accurate prediction of water temperature and the assessment of the impacts of environmental variables on water temperature variation are critical for water resources management, particularly in the context of water quality and aquatic ecosystem sustainability. The objective of this study is to measure stream water temperature and air temperature and to examine the importance of streamflow on stream water temperature prediction. The measured stream water temperature and air temperature will be used to test two hypotheses: 1) streamflow is a relatively more important factor than air temperature in regulating water temperature, and 2) by combining air temperature and streamflow data stream water temperature can be more accurately estimated. Water and air temperature data loggers are placed at two USGS stream gauge stations #01362357and #01362370, located in the upper Esopus Creek watershed in Phonecia, NY. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time series model is used to analyze the measured water temperature data, identify the dominant environmental variables, and predict the water temperature with identified dominant variable. The preliminary results show that streamflow is not a significant variable in predicting stream water temperature at both USGS gauge stations. Daily mean air temperature is sufficient to predict stream water temperature at this site scale.

Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

2013-12-01

Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further

Are fluoride levels in drinking water associated with hypothyroidism prevalence in England? A large observational study of GP practice data and fluoride levels in drinking water.

PubMed

Peckham, S; Lowery, D; Spencer, S

2015-07-01

While previous research has suggested that there is an association between fluoride ingestion and the incidence of hypothyroidism, few population level studies have been undertaken. In England, approximately 10% of the population live in areas with community fluoridation schemes and hypothyroidism prevalence can be assessed from general practice data. This observational study examines the association between levels of fluoride in water supplies with practice level hypothyroidism prevalence. We used a cross-sectional study design using secondary data to develop binary logistic regression models of predictive factors for hypothyroidism prevalence at practice level using 2012 data on fluoride levels in drinking water, 2012/2013 Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) diagnosed hypothyroidism prevalence data, 2013 General Practitioner registered patient numbers and 2012 practice level Index of Multiple Deprivation scores. We found that higher levels of fluoride in drinking water provide a useful contribution for predicting prevalence of hypothyroidism. We found that practices located in the West Midlands (a wholly fluoridated area) are nearly twice as likely to report high hypothyroidism prevalence in comparison to Greater Manchester (non-fluoridated area). In many areas of the world, hypothyroidism is a major health concern and in addition to other factors-such as iodine deficiency-fluoride exposure should be considered as a contributing factor. The findings of the study raise particular concerns about the validity of community fluoridation as a safe public health measure. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A Methylmercury Prediction Too For Surface Waters Across The Contiguous United States (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krabbenhoft, D. P.; Booth, N.; Lutz, M.; Fienen, M. N.; Saltman, T.

2009-12-01

About 20 years ago, researchers at a few locations across the globe discovered high levels of mercury in fish from remote settings lacking any obvious mercury source. We now know that for most locations atmospheric deposition is the dominant mercury source, and that mercury methylation is the key process that translates low mercury loading rates into relatively high levels in top predators of aquatic food webs. Presently, almost all US states have advisories for elevated levels of mercury in sport fish, and as a result there is considerable public awareness and concern for this nearly ubiquitous contaminant issue. In some states, “statewide” advisories have been issued because elevated fish mercury levels are so common, or the state has no effective way to monitor thousands of lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, and streams. As such, resource managers and public health officials have limited options for informing the public on of where elevated mercury concentrations in sport fish are more likely to occur than others. This project provides, for the first time, a national map of predicted (modeled) methylmercury concentrations in surface waters, which is the most toxic and bioaccumulative form of mercury in the environment. The map is the result of over two decades of research that resulted in the formulation of conceptual models of the mercury methylation process, which is strongly governed by environmental conditions - specifically hydrologic landscapes and water quality. The resulting predictive map shows clear regional trends in the distribution of methylmercury concentrations in surface waters. East of the Mississippi, the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic coast, the northeast, the lower Mississippi valley, and Great Lakes area are predicted to have generally higher environmental methylmercury levels. Higher-elevation, well-drained areas of Appalachia are predicted to have relatively lower methylmercury abundance. Other than the prairie pothole region, in the western

Development of methods for improving levels 1 and 2 met/ocean parameter predictions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

The prediction of storm surge and wave forces and moments on bridges requires knowledge of design (100-year) water levels and wave heights and periods (met/ocean conditions) as well as bridge dimensions, elevation, orientation, etc. The American Asso...

Ferritin levels predict severe dengue.

PubMed

Soundravally, R; Agieshkumar, B; Daisy, M; Sherin, J; Cleetus, C C

2015-02-01

Currently, no tests are available to monitor and predict severity and outcome of dengue. To find potential markers that predict dengue severity, the present study validated the serum level of three acute-phase proteins α-1 antitrypsin, ceruloplasmin and ferritin in a pool of severe dengue cases compared to non-severe forms and other febrile illness controls. A total of 96 patients were divided into two equal groups with group 'A' comprising dengue-infected cases and group 'B' with other febrile illness cases negative for dengue. Out of 48 dengue-infected cases, 13 had severe dengue and the remaining 35 were classified as non-severe dengue. Immunoassays were performed to evaluate the serum levels of acute-phase proteins both on the day of admission and on the day of defervescence. The efficiency of individual proteins in predicting the disease severity was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve. The study did not find any significant difference in the levels of α-1 antitrypsin between the clinical groups. A significant increase in the levels of ceruloplasmin around defervescence in severe cases compared to non-severe and other febrile controls was observed and this is the first report describing the potential association of ceruloplasmin and dengue severity. Interestingly, a steady increase in the level of serum ferritin was recorded throughout the course of illness. Among all the three proteins, the elevated ferritin level could predict the disease severity with highest sensitivity and specificity of 76.9 and 83.3 %, respectively, on the day of admission and the same was found to be 90 and 91.6 % around defervescence. On the basis of this diagnostic efficiency, we propose that ferritin may serve as a potential biomarker for an early prediction of disease severity.

Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conner, W.H.; Brody, M.

1989-01-01

An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servicea??s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50a??100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.

Prediction of concentration levels of metformin and other high consumption pharmaceuticals in wastewater and regional surface water based on sales data.

PubMed

Oosterhuis, Mathijs; Sacher, Frank; Ter Laak, Thomas L

2013-01-01

Local consumption data of pharmaceuticals were used to study the emission to wastewater and surface waters in two small Dutch water catchments. For nine high consumption pharmaceuticals: metformin, metoprolol, sotalol, losartan, valsartan, irbesartan, hydrochlorothiazide, diclofenac and carbamazepine, predicted emissions were compared to wastewater concentrations, removal in sewage treatment plants and recovery in regional surface water. The study shows that local consumption data can be very useful to select pharmaceuticals for monitoring and to predict wastewater concentrations. Measured influent concentrations were on average 78% with a range of 31-138% of predicted influent concentrations. Metformin is the pharmaceutical with the highest concentration in wastewater (64-98 μg/L) but it is removed with >98% in sewage treatment plants (STP). Guanylurea, a biodegradation product of metformin, was detected in STP effluents and surface waters at concentrations of 39-56 μg/L and 1.8-3.9 μg/L, respectively. The STP removal of the different pharmaceuticals varied strongly. For carbamazepine, hydrochlorothiazide and sotalol a significant better removal was found at higher temperatures and longer hydraulic retention times while for metoprolol significantly better removal was only observed at higher temperatures. Predicting environmental concentrations from regional consumption data might be an alternative to monitoring of pharmaceuticals in wastewater and surface waters. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting arsenic concentrations in groundwater of San Luis Valley, Colorado: implications for individual-level lifetime exposure assessment.

PubMed

James, Katherine A; Meliker, Jaymie R; Buttenfield, Barbara E; Byers, Tim; Zerbe, Gary O; Hokanson, John E; Marshall, Julie A

2014-08-01

Consumption of inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels has been associated with chronic diseases. Risk is less clear at lower levels of arsenic, in part due to difficulties in estimating exposure. Herein we characterize spatial and temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and develop models for predicting aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, an area of moderately elevated arsenic in groundwater. This study included historical water samples with total arsenic concentrations from 595 unique well locations. A longitudinal analysis established temporal stability in arsenic levels in individual wells. The mean arsenic levels for a random sample of 535 wells were incorporated into five kriging models to predict groundwater arsenic concentrations at any point in time. A separate validation dataset (n = 60 wells) was used to identify the model with strongest predictability. Findings indicate that arsenic concentrations are temporally stable (r = 0.88; 95 % CI 0.83-0.92 for samples collected from the same well 15-25 years apart) and the spatial model created using ordinary kriging best predicted arsenic concentrations (ρ = 0.72 between predicted and observed validation data). These findings illustrate the value of geostatistical modeling of arsenic and suggest the San Luis Valley is a good region for conducting epidemiologic studies of groundwater metals because of the ability to accurately predict variation in groundwater arsenic concentrations.

AUTOMATED WATER LEVEL MEASUREMENTS IN SMALL-DIAMETER AQUIFER TUBES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

PETERSEN SW; EDRINGTON RS; MAHOOD RO

2011-01-14

Groundwater contaminated with hexavalent chromium, strontium-90, and uranium discharges into the Columbia River along approximately 16 km (10 mi) of the shoreline. Various treatment systems have and will continue to be implemented to eliminate the impact of Hanford Site contamination to the river. To optimize the various remediation strategies, it is important to understand interactions between groundwater and the surface water of the Columbia River. An automated system to record water levels in aquifer sampling tubes installed in the hyporheic zone was designed and tested to (1) gain a more complete understanding of groundwater/river water interactions based on gaining andmore » losing conditions ofthe Columbia River, (2) record and interpret data for consistent and defensible groundwater/surface water conceptual models that may be used to better predict subsurface contaminant fate and transport, and (3) evaluate the hydrodynamic influence of extraction wells in an expanded pump-and-treat system to optimize the treatment system. A system to measure water levels in small-diameter aquifer tubes was designed and tested in the laboratory and field. The system was configured to allow manual measurements to periodically calibrate the instrument and to permit aquifer tube sampling without removing the transducer tube. Manual measurements were collected with an e-tape designed and fabricated especially for this test. Results indicate that the transducer system accurately records groundwater levels in aquifer tubes. These data are being used to refine the conceptual and numeric models to better understand interactions in the hyporheic zone of the Columbia River and the adjacent river water and groundwater, and changes in hydrochemistry relative to groundwater flux as river water recharges the aquifer and then drains back out in response to changes in the river level.« less

Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1975

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ballance, Wilbur C.; Freudenthal, Pamela B.

1976-01-01

Ground-water levels are measured periodically in a network of about 260 observation wells in Wyoming to record changes in ground-water storage. The areas of water-level observation are mostly where ground water is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. This report contains maps showing location of observation wells and water-level changes from 1975 to 1976. Well history, highest and lowest water levels , and hydrographs for most wells also are included in this report.The program of ground-water observation is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and the city of Cheyenne.

Precursory changes in well water level prior to the March, 2000 eruption of Usu Volcano, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibata, Tomo; Akita, Fujio

The height of water levels in two wells located near Usu volcano, Japan, changed in a systematic fashion for several months prior to the eruption of Usu volcano on 31 March 2000. In one well, water-level decrease relative to normal levels was first observed at the beginning of October 1999. The decreasing water-level is postulated to result from groundwater flow into cracks widened by intruding magma during dike formation. From the beginning of January 2000, the rate of decrease became higher. During this time, the water level of the second well increased by 0.05 m and then gradually decreased. The water-level changes are consistent with volumetric expansion of magma inside the magma chamber, followed by intrusion of magma into the fracture system associated with widening of cracks. We conclude that water-level observations can provide information that may potentially be used to predict further volcanic eruptions.

Prediction of water intake and excretion flows in Holstein dairy cows under thermoneutral conditions.

PubMed

Khelil-Arfa, H; Boudon, A; Maxin, G; Faverdin, P

2012-10-01

The increase in the worldwide demand for dairy products, associated with global warming, will emphasize the issue of water use efficiency in dairy systems. The evaluation of environmental issues related to the management of animal dejections will also require precise biotechnical models that can predict effluent management in farms. In this study, equations were developed and evaluated for predicting the main water flows at the dairy cow level, based on parameters related to cow productive performance and diet under thermoneutral conditions. Two datasets were gathered. The first one comprised 342 individual measurements of water balance in dairy cows obtained during 18 trials at the experimental farm of Méjussaume (INRA, France). Predictive equations of water intake, urine and fecal water excretion were developed by multiple regression using a stepwise selection of regressors from a list of seven candidate parameters, which were milk yield, dry matter intake (DMI), body weight, diet dry matter content (DM), proportion of concentrate (CONC) and content of crude protein (CP) ingested with forage and concentrate (CPf and CPc, g/kg DM). The second dataset was used for external validation of the developed equations and comprised 196 water flow measurements on experimental lots obtained from 43 published papers related to water balance or digestibility measurements in dairy cows. Although DMI was the first predictor of the total water intake (TWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.51, DM was the first predictive parameter of free water intake (FWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.57, likely due to the large variability of DM in the first dataset (from 11.5 to 91.4 g/100 g). This confirmed the compensation between water drunk and ingested with diet when DM changes. The variability of urine volume was explained mainly by the CPf associated with DMI (r.s.d. 5.4 kg/day for an average flow of 24.0 kg/day) and that of fecal water was explained by the proportion of CONC in the diet and DMI

Statistical and Biophysical Models for Predicting Total and Outdoor Water Use in Los Angeles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

2012-04-01

Modeling water demand is a complex exercise in the choice of the functional form, techniques and variables to integrate in the model. The goal of the current research is to identify the determinants that control total and outdoor residential water use in semi-arid cities and to utilize that information in the development of statistical and biophysical models that can forecast spatial and temporal urban water use. The City of Los Angeles is unique in its highly diverse socio-demographic, economic and cultural characteristics across neighborhoods, which introduces significant challenges in modeling water use. Increasing climate variability also contributes to uncertainties in water use predictions in urban areas. Monthly individual water use records were acquired from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) for the 2000 to 2010 period. Study predictors of residential water use include socio-demographic, economic, climate and landscaping variables at the zip code level collected from US Census database. Climate variables are estimated from ground-based observations and calculated at the centroid of each zip code by inverse-distance weighting method. Remotely-sensed products of vegetation biomass and landscape land cover are also utilized. Two linear regression models were developed based on the panel data and variables described: a pooled-OLS regression model and a linear mixed effects model. Both models show income per capita and the percentage of landscape areas in each zip code as being statistically significant predictors. The pooled-OLS model tends to over-estimate higher water use zip codes and both models provide similar RMSE values.Outdoor water use was estimated at the census tract level as the residual between total water use and indoor use. This residual is being compared with the output from a biophysical model including tree and grass cover areas, climate variables and estimates of evapotranspiration at very high spatial resolution. A

Statistical summaries of ground-water level data collected in the Suwannee River Water Management District, 1948 to 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, J.J.; Freeman, L.D.

1996-01-01

Since 1948, ground-water level data have beensystematically collected from selected wells in theSuwannee River Water Management District (SRWMD) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS),the SRWMD, and other agencies. Records of waterlevels in the SRWMD (fig. 1), collected by the USGS and SRWMD through 1990, and by the SRWMD from 1990 to 1994, have been published for many years in the USGS annual report series "Water Resources Data for Florida." However, no systematic statistical summaries of water levels in the SRWMD have been previously published. The need for such statistical summary data forevaluations of drought severity, ground-water supplyavailability, and minimum water levels for regulatory purposes increases daily as demands for ground-water usage increase. Also, much of the base flow of the Suwannee River is dependent upon ground water. As the population and demand for ground water for drinking water and irrigation purposes increase, the ability to quickly and easily predict trends in ground-water availability will become paramount. In response to this need, the USGS, in cooperation with the SRWMD, compiled this report. Ground-water sta tistics for 136 sites are presented as well as figures showing water levels that were measured in wells from 1948 through September 1994. In 1994, the SRWMD and the USGS began a long- term program of cooperative studies designed tobetter understand minimum and maximum streamflows and ground-water levels in the SRWMD. Minimum and maximum flows and levels are needed by the district to manage the surface- and ground-water resources of the SRWMD and to maintain or improve the various ecosystems. Data evaluation was a necessary first step in the long- term SRWMD ground-water investigations program, because basic statistics for ground-water levels are not included in the USGS annual data reports such as "Water Resources Data for Florida, Water Year 1994" (Fran klin and others, 1995). Statistics included in this report were generated

Water level management of lakes connected to regulated rivers: An integrated modeling and analytical methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Tengfei; Mao, Jingqiao; Pan, Shunqi; Dai, Lingquan; Zhang, Peipei; Xu, Diandian; Dai, Huichao

2018-07-01

Reservoir operations significantly alter the hydrological regime of the downstream river and river-connected lake, which has far-reaching impacts on the lake ecosystem. To facilitate the management of lakes connected to regulated rivers, the following information must be provided: (1) the response of lake water levels to reservoir operation schedules in the near future and (2) the importance of different rivers in terms of affecting the water levels in different lake regions of interest. We develop an integrated modeling and analytical methodology for the water level management of such lakes. The data-driven method is used to model the lake level as it has the potential of producing quick and accurate predictions. A new genetic algorithm-based synchronized search is proposed to optimize input variable time lags and data-driven model parameters simultaneously. The methodology also involves the orthogonal design and range analysis for extracting the influence of an individual river from that of all the rivers. The integrated methodology is applied to the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake. The results show that: (1) the antecedent lake levels are of crucial importance for the current lake level prediction; (2) the selected river discharge time lags reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the rivers' impacts on lake level changes; (3) the predicted lake levels are in very good agreement with the observed data (RMSE ≤ 0.091 m; R2 ≥ 0.9986). This study demonstrates the practical potential of the integrated methodology, which can provide both the lake level responses to future dam releases and the relative contributions of different rivers to lake level changes.

Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

1980-01-01

The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

Predicting consumer preferences for mineral composition of bottled and tap water.

PubMed

Platikanov, Stefan; Hernández, Alejandra; González, Susana; Luis Cortina, Jose; Tauler, Roma; Devesa, Ricard

2017-01-01

The overall liking for taste of water was correlated with the mineral composition of selected bottled and tap waters. Sixty-nine untrained volunteers assessed and rated twenty-five different commercial bottled and tap waters from. Water samples were physicochemical characterised by analysing conductivity, pH, total dissolved solids (TDS) and major anions and cations: HCO 3 - , SO 4 2- , Cl - , NO 3 - , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Na + , and K + . Residual chlorine levels were also analysed in the tap water samples. Globally, volunteers preferred waters rich in calcium bicarbonate and sulfate, rather than in sodium chloride. This study also demonstrated that it was possible to accurately predict the overall liking by a Partial Least Squares regression using either all measured physicochemical parameters or a reduced number of them. These results were in agreement with previously published results using trained panellists. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships among gender, cognitive style, academic major, and performance on the Piaget water-level task.

PubMed

Hammer, R E; Hoffer, N; King, W L

1995-06-01

Many researchers have found that more college-age adults than would be expected fail Piaget's water-level task, with women failing more frequently than men. It has been hypothesized that differences in cognitive style may account for performance differences on the water-level task. In the present study, 27 male and 27 female architectural students and 27 male and 27 female liberal-arts students were assessed for their performance on both Piaget's Water-level Task and Witkin's Group Embedded Figures Test. No difference was found in performance of male and female architectural students on either task, but male liberal-arts students scored significantly higher than female liberal-arts students on both measures. A disembedding cognitive style predicted success on the water-level task for the architectural students but not for the liberal arts students.

Water-level changes in the high plains regional aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma, predevelopment to 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Havens, J.S.

1983-01-01

During 1978, the U.S. Geological Survey began a 5-year study of the High Plains regional aquifer system to provide hydrologic information for evaluation of the effects of long-term development of the aquifer and to develop computer models for prediction of aquifer response to alternative changes in ground-water management (Weeks, 1978). This report is one of a series presenting hydrologic information of the High Plains aquifer in Oklahoma. The predevelopment to 1980 water-level changes in the High Plains regional aquifer in Oklahoma are shown for Harper, Ellis, Woodward, Dewey, and Roger Mills Counties, on the east, and for the Oklahoma Panhandle, consist- ing of Cimarron, Texas, and Beaver Counties, on the west. About 1,470 water-level measurements in the Panhandle were used in compiling the predevelopment water-table map (Havens, 1982c). In the remaining area to the east about 150 water-level measurements from the 1950's to the 1970's are representative of predevelopment water levels. For the 1980 water-table map, about 330 measurements were made in the Panhandle and about 350 measurements in the eastern area by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (Havens, 1982b).

Water resources data Virginia water year 2005 Volume 2. Ground-water level and ground-water quality records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicklein, Shaun M.; Powell, Eugene D.; Guyer, Joel R.; Owens, Joseph A.

2006-01-01

Water-resources data for the 2005 water year for Virginia consist of records of water levels and water quality of ground-water wells. This report (Volume 2. Ground-Water-Level and Ground-Water-Quality Records) contains water levels at 349 observation wells and water quality at 29 wells. Locations of these wells are shown on figures 3 through 8. The data in this report represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Virginia.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

PubMed

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

PubMed Central

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and

Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

Predicting Displaceable Water Sites Using Mixed-Solvent Molecular Dynamics.

PubMed

Graham, Sarah E; Smith, Richard D; Carlson, Heather A

2018-02-26

Water molecules are an important factor in protein-ligand binding. Upon binding of a ligand with a protein's surface, waters can either be displaced by the ligand or may be conserved and possibly bridge interactions between the protein and ligand. Depending on the specific interactions made by the ligand, displacing waters can yield a gain in binding affinity. The extent to which binding affinity may increase is difficult to predict, as the favorable displacement of a water molecule is dependent on the site-specific interactions made by the water and the potential ligand. Several methods have been developed to predict the location of water sites on a protein's surface, but the majority of methods are not able to take into account both protein dynamics and the interactions made by specific functional groups. Mixed-solvent molecular dynamics (MixMD) is a cosolvent simulation technique that explicitly accounts for the interaction of both water and small molecule probes with a protein's surface, allowing for their direct competition. This method has previously been shown to identify both active and allosteric sites on a protein's surface. Using a test set of eight systems, we have developed a method using MixMD to identify conserved and displaceable water sites. Conserved sites can be determined by an occupancy-based metric to identify sites which are consistently occupied by water even in the presence of probe molecules. Conversely, displaceable water sites can be found by considering the sites which preferentially bind probe molecules. Furthermore, the inclusion of six probe types allows the MixMD method to predict which functional groups are capable of displacing which water sites. The MixMD method consistently identifies sites which are likely to be nondisplaceable and predicts the favorable displacement of water sites that are known to be displaced upon ligand binding.

Analytical Versus Numerical Estimates of Water-Level Declines Caused by Pumping, and a Case Study of the Iao Aquifer, Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.; Meyer, William

2001-01-01

Comparisons were made between model-calculated water levels from a one-dimensional analytical model referred to as RAM (Robust Analytical Model) and those from numerical ground-water flow models using a sharp-interface model code. RAM incorporates the horizontal-flow assumption and the Ghyben-Herzberg relation to represent flow in a one-dimensional unconfined aquifer that contains a body of freshwater floating on denser saltwater. RAM does not account for the presence of a low-permeability coastal confining unit (caprock), which impedes the discharge of fresh ground water from the aquifer to the ocean, nor for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells, which is significant because water-level declines are greatest in the vicinity of withdrawal wells. Numerical ground-water flow models can readily account for discharge through a coastal confining unit and for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. For a given aquifer hydraulic-conductivity value, recharge rate, and withdrawal rate, model-calculated steady-state water-level declines from RAM can be significantly less than those from numerical ground-water flow models. The differences between model-calculated water-level declines from RAM and those from numerical models are partly dependent on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer system and the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. RAM invariably predicts the greatest water-level declines at the inland extent of the aquifer where the freshwater body is thickest and the potential for saltwater intrusion is lowest. For cases in which a low-permeability confining unit overlies the aquifer near the coast, however, water-level declines calculated from numerical models may exceed those from RAM even at the inland extent of the aquifer. Since 1990, RAM has been used by the State of Hawaii Commission on Water Resource Management for establishing sustainable-yield values for the State?s aquifers. Data

Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

van der Valk, Arnold; Mushet, David M.

2016-01-01

Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

Simulated effects of water-level changes in the Mississippi River and Pokegama Reservoir on ground-water levels, Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Perry M.

2005-01-01

The extent of aquifer water-level changes resulting from these river, wetland, and lake water-level changes varied because of the complex hydrogeology of the study area. A 1.00-foot decline in reservoir/river water levels caused a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline in the middle aquifer near Jay Gould and Little Jay Gould Lakes of 1.09 feet and a maximum simulated ground-water-level decline of 1.00 foot in the lower aquifer near Cut-off and Blackwater Lakes. The amount and extent of ground-water-level changes in the middle and lower aquifers can be explained by the thickness, extent, and connectivity of the aquifers. Surface-water/ground-water interactions near wetlands and lakes with water levels unchanged from the calibrated model resulted in small water-table altitude differences among the simulations. Results of the ground-water modeling indicate that lowering of the reservoir and river water levels by 1.00 foot likely will not substantially affect water levels in the middle and lower aquifers.

Investigating Storm-Induced Total Water Levels on Complex Barred Beaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.

2013-12-01

Water levels in coastal environments are not static, but rather vary from a range of factors including mean sea level, tides, storm surge, and wave runup. Cumulatively these superimposed factors determine the total water level (TWL), the extent of which has major implications for coastal erosion and inundation during periods of high energy. Storm-induced, super-elevated water levels pose a threat to low lying coastal regions, as clearly demonstrated by recent events such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina. For this reason, the ability to accurately predict the TWL is crucial for both emergency managers and coastal planners. While some components of TWL are well understood (e.g., tides) there is still significant uncertainty in predicting runup, a process that can be a major contributor to instantaneous TWLs. Traditionally, empirical relationships derived from observational field data have been used to estimate runup, including wave setup and both incident and infragravity swash (Stockdon et al., 2006). While these formulations have shown skill in predicting the runup extent on natural beaches, these equations consider only the most basic contributing factors - namely the mean foreshore beach slope, the offshore wave height, and offshore wave period. Not included in these empirical estimates is the role of nearshore morphology on TWLs. However, it has long been recognized that nearshore sandbars act as natural barriers to coastal erosion during storm events by dissipating wave energy far from the beach face. Nonetheless, the influence of nearshore morphology on inner surf zone processes, including wave runup, is poorly understood. Recent pioneering studies (eg., Soldini et al., 2013 and Stephens et al., 2011) have explored the role of simple nearshore features (single Gaussian bars) on swash processes. Many locations in the world, however, are characterized by more complex morphologies such as multiple barred systems. Further, in many such places, including Columbia

Making predictions skill level analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

2017-01-01

The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

Acute Anxiety Predicts Components of the Cold Shock Response on Cold Water Immersion: Toward an Integrated Psychophysiological Model of Acute Cold Water Survival

PubMed Central

Barwood, Martin J.; Corbett, Jo; Massey, Heather; McMorris, Terry; Tipton, Mike; Wagstaff, Christopher R. D.

2018-01-01

Introduction: Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death. In cold-water, sudden skin cooling triggers the life-threatening cold shock response (CSR). The CSR comprises tachycardia, peripheral vasoconstriction, hypertension, inspiratory gasp, and hyperventilation with the hyperventilatory component inducing hypocapnia and increasing risk of aspirating water to the lungs. Some CSR components can be reduced by habituation (i.e., reduced response to stimulus of same magnitude) induced by 3–5 short cold-water immersions (CWI). However, high levels of acute anxiety, a plausible emotion on CWI: magnifies the CSR in unhabituated participants, reverses habituated components of the CSR and prevents/delays habituation when high levels of anxiety are experienced concurrent to immersions suggesting anxiety is integral to the CSR. Purpose: To examine the predictive relationship that prior ratings of acute anxiety have with the CSR. Secondly, to examine whether anxiety ratings correlated with components of the CSR during immersion before and after induction of habituation. Methods: Forty-eight unhabituated participants completed one (CON1) 7-min immersion in to cold water (15°C). Of that cohort, twenty-five completed four further CWIs that would ordinarily induce CSR habituation. They then completed two counter-balanced immersions where anxiety levels were increased (CWI-ANX) or were not manipulated (CON2). Acute anxiety and the cardiorespiratory responses (cardiac frequency [fc], respiratory frequency [fR], tidal volume [VT], minute ventilation [E]) were measured. Multiple regression was used to identify components of the CSR from the most life-threatening period of immersion (1st minute) predicted by the anxiety rating prior to immersion. Relationships between anxiety rating and CSR components during immersion were assessed by correlation. Results: Anxiety rating predicted the fc component of the CSR in unhabituated participants (CON1; p < 0.05, r = 0.536, r2= 0

Acute Anxiety Predicts Components of the Cold Shock Response on Cold Water Immersion: Toward an Integrated Psychophysiological Model of Acute Cold Water Survival.

PubMed

Barwood, Martin J; Corbett, Jo; Massey, Heather; McMorris, Terry; Tipton, Mike; Wagstaff, Christopher R D

2018-01-01

Introduction: Drowning is a leading cause of accidental death. In cold-water, sudden skin cooling triggers the life-threatening cold shock response (CSR). The CSR comprises tachycardia, peripheral vasoconstriction, hypertension, inspiratory gasp, and hyperventilation with the hyperventilatory component inducing hypocapnia and increasing risk of aspirating water to the lungs. Some CSR components can be reduced by habituation (i.e., reduced response to stimulus of same magnitude) induced by 3-5 short cold-water immersions (CWI). However, high levels of acute anxiety, a plausible emotion on CWI: magnifies the CSR in unhabituated participants, reverses habituated components of the CSR and prevents/delays habituation when high levels of anxiety are experienced concurrent to immersions suggesting anxiety is integral to the CSR. Purpose: To examine the predictive relationship that prior ratings of acute anxiety have with the CSR. Secondly, to examine whether anxiety ratings correlated with components of the CSR during immersion before and after induction of habituation. Methods: Forty-eight unhabituated participants completed one (CON1) 7-min immersion in to cold water (15°C). Of that cohort, twenty-five completed four further CWIs that would ordinarily induce CSR habituation. They then completed two counter-balanced immersions where anxiety levels were increased (CWI-ANX) or were not manipulated (CON2). Acute anxiety and the cardiorespiratory responses (cardiac frequency [ f c ], respiratory frequency [ f R ], tidal volume [ V T ], minute ventilation [ E ]) were measured. Multiple regression was used to identify components of the CSR from the most life-threatening period of immersion (1 st minute) predicted by the anxiety rating prior to immersion. Relationships between anxiety rating and CSR components during immersion were assessed by correlation. Results: Anxiety rating predicted the f c component of the CSR in unhabituated participants (CON1; p < 0.05, r = 0.536, r

Development of water level regulation strategy for fish and wildlife, upper Mississippi River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lubinski, Kenneth S.; Carmody, G.; Wilcox, D.; Drazkowski, B.

1991-01-01

Water level regulation has been proposed as a tool for maintaining or enhancing fish and wildlife resources in navigation pools and associated flood plains of the Upper Mississippi River System. Research related to the development of water level management plans is being conducted under the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program. Research strategies include investigations of cause and effect relationships, spatial and temporal patterns of resource components, and alternative problem solutions. The principal hypothesis being tested states that water level fluctuations resulting from navigation dam operation create less than optimal conditions for the reproduction and growth of target aquatic macrophyte and fish species. Representative navigation pools have been selected to describe hydrologic, engineering, and legal constraints within which fish and wildlife objectives can be established. Spatial analyses are underway to predict the magnitude and location of habitat changes that will result from controlled changes in water elevation.

Negotiating water across levels: A peace and conflict "Toolbox" for water diplomacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grech-Madin, Charlotte; Döring, Stefan; Kim, Kyungmee; Swain, Ashok

2018-04-01

As a key policy tool, water diplomacy offers greater political engagement in the cooperative management of shared water. A range of initiatives has been dedicated to this end, almost invariably oriented around the interactions of nation states. Crucially, however, practitioners of water diplomacy also need to address water governance at sub-state levels. As a political, multi-level, and normative field, peace and conflict research offers a pluralism of approaches designed to bring actors together at all levels. Drawing upon this research, this paper offers new focal points for water diplomacy that can enhance its policy effectiveness and enrich its underlying academic current. More specifically, it presents three hitherto undervalued tools for water diplomacy: at the interstate level, to uncover the rich body of political norms that bind states to shared understandings of acceptable practice around water. At the intrastate level, to incorporate ethnography of water users and civil society groups' responses to state-led waterworks projects, and at the communal level to employ disaggregated georeferenced data on water resources in conflict-prone areas. Taken together, these analytical tools provide a multi-faceted political gauge of the dynamics of water diplomacy, and add vital impetus to develop water diplomacy across multiple levels of policy engagement.

Evaluation and comparison of predictive individual-level general surrogates.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2018-07-01

An intermediate response measure that accurately predicts efficacy in a new setting at the individual level could be used both for prediction and personalized medical decisions. In this article, we define a predictive individual-level general surrogate (PIGS), which is an individual-level intermediate response that can be used to accurately predict individual efficacy in a new setting. While methods for evaluating trial-level general surrogates, which are predictors of trial-level efficacy, have been developed previously, few, if any, methods have been developed to evaluate individual-level general surrogates, and no methods have formalized the use of cross-validation to quantify the expected prediction error. Our proposed method uses existing methods of individual-level surrogate evaluation within a given clinical trial setting in combination with cross-validation over a set of clinical trials to evaluate surrogate quality and to estimate the absolute prediction error that is expected in a new trial setting when using a PIGS. Simulations show that our method performs well across a variety of scenarios. We use our method to evaluate and to compare candidate individual-level general surrogates over a set of multi-national trials of a pentavalent rotavirus vaccine.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Modeling Benthic Sediment Processes to Predict Water ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The benthic sediment acts as a huge reservoir of particulate and dissolved material (within interstitial water) which can contribute to loading of contaminants and nutrients to the water column. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to predict spatial and temporal benthic fluxes of nutrients and chemicals in Narragansett Bay. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to identify benthic flux into the water column in Narragansett Bay. Benthic flux is essential to properly model water quality and ecology in estuarine and coastal systems.

Determining return water levels at ungauged coastal sites: a case study for northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arns, Arne; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan D.; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-04-01

We estimate return periods and levels of extreme still water levels for the highly vulnerable and historically and culturally important small marsh islands known as the Halligen, located in the Wadden Sea offshore of the coast of northern Germany. This is a challenging task as only few water level records are available for this region, and they are currently too short to apply traditional extreme value analysis methods. Therefore, we use the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) approach. This originates from hydrology but has been used before in several coastal studies and is also currently applied by the local federal administration responsible for coastal protection in the study area. The RFA enables us to indirectly estimate return levels by transferring hydrological information from gauged to related ungauged sites. Our analyses highlight that this methodology has some drawbacks and may over- or underestimate return levels compared to direct analyses using station data. To overcome these issues, we present an alternative approach, combining numerical and statistical models. First, we produced a numerical multidecadal model hindcast of water levels for the entire North Sea. Predicted water levels from the hindcast are bias corrected using the information from the available tide gauge records. Hence, the simulated water levels agree well with the measured water levels at gauged sites. The bias correction is then interpolated spatially to obtain correction functions for the simulated water levels at each coastal and island model grid point in the study area. Using a recommended procedure to conduct extreme value analyses from a companion study, return water levels suitable for coastal infrastructure design are estimated continuously along the entire coastline of the study area, including the offshore islands. A similar methodology can be applied in other regions of the world where tide gauge observations are sparse.

The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

2016-12-01

A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Ganju, Neil K.; Butman, Bradford; Signell, Richard P.

2017-04-01

A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase (˜0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings.

Observations and a linear model of water level in an interconnected inlet-bay system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aretxabaleta, Alfredo; Ganju, Neil K.; Butman, Bradford; Signell, Richard

2017-01-01

A system of barrier islands and back-barrier bays occurs along southern Long Island, New York, and in many coastal areas worldwide. Characterizing the bay physical response to water level fluctuations is needed to understand flooding during extreme events and evaluate their relation to geomorphological changes. Offshore sea level is one of the main drivers of water level fluctuations in semienclosed back-barrier bays. We analyzed observed water levels (October 2007 to November 2015) and developed analytical models to better understand bay water level along southern Long Island. An increase (∼0.02 m change in 0.17 m amplitude) in the dominant M2 tidal amplitude (containing the largest fraction of the variability) was observed in Great South Bay during mid-2014. The observed changes in both tidal amplitude and bay water level transfer from offshore were related to the dredging of nearby inlets and possibly the changing size of a breach across Fire Island caused by Hurricane Sandy (after December 2012). The bay response was independent of the magnitude of the fluctuations (e.g., storms) at a specific frequency. An analytical model that incorporates bay and inlet dimensions reproduced the observed transfer function in Great South Bay and surrounding areas. The model predicts the transfer function in Moriches and Shinnecock bays where long-term observations were not available. The model is a simplified tool to investigate changes in bay water level and enables the evaluation of future conditions and alternative geomorphological settings.

Lake water levels across the U.S.: What are the spatial patterns and drivers of water level change?

EPA Science Inventory

Background Lake water-level changes affect the physical, chemical, and biological condition of lakes; and we expect that disturbances such as land use conversion, water withdrawal, and climate change may alter water-level regimes and impact lake integrity. However, we have a poor...

Water levels shape fishing participation in flood-control reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, Leandro E.; Meals, K. O.

2013-01-01

We examined the relationship between fishing effort (hours fished) and average March–May water level in 3 flood control reservoirs in Mississippi. Fishing effort increased as water level rose, peaked at intermediate water levels, and decreased at high water levels. We suggest that the observed arched-shaped relationship is driven by the shifting influence of fishability (adequacy of the fishing circumstances from an angler's perspective) and catch rate along a water level continuum. Fishability reduces fishing effort during low water, despite the potential for higher catch rates. Conversely, reduced catch rates and fishability at high water also curtail effort. Thus, both high and low water levels seem to discourage fishing effort, whereas anglers seem to favor intermediate water levels. Our results have implications for water level management in reservoirs with large water level fluctuations.

Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Sasmita; Jha, Madan K.

2013-12-01

The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool.

Accounting for and predicting the influence of spatial autocorrelation in water quality modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miralha, L.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

Although many studies have attempted to investigate the spatial trends of water quality, more attention is yet to be paid to the consequences of considering and ignoring the spatial autocorrelation (SAC) that exists in water quality parameters. Several studies have mentioned the importance of accounting for SAC in water quality modeling, as well as the differences in outcomes between models that account for and ignore SAC. However, the capacity to predict the magnitude of such differences is still ambiguous. In this study, we hypothesized that SAC inherently possessed by a response variable (i.e., water quality parameter) influences the outcomes of spatial modeling. We evaluated whether the level of inherent SAC is associated with changes in R-Squared, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and residual SAC (rSAC), after accounting for SAC during modeling procedure. The main objective was to analyze if water quality parameters with higher Moran's I values (inherent SAC measure) undergo a greater increase in R² and a greater reduction in both AIC and rSAC. We compared a non-spatial model (OLS) to two spatial regression approaches (spatial lag and error models). Predictor variables were the principal components of topographic (elevation and slope), land cover, and hydrological soil group variables. We acquired these data from federal online sources (e.g. USGS). Ten watersheds were selected, each in a different state of the USA. Results revealed that water quality parameters with higher inherent SAC showed substantial increase in R² and decrease in rSAC after performing spatial regressions. However, AIC values did not show significant changes. Overall, the higher the level of inherent SAC in water quality variables, the greater improvement of model performance. This indicates a linear and direct relationship between the spatial model outcomes (R² and rSAC) and the degree of SAC in each water quality variable. Therefore, our study suggests that the inherent level of

High-Level Prediction Signals in a Low-Level Area of the Macaque Face-Processing Hierarchy.

PubMed

Schwiedrzik, Caspar M; Freiwald, Winrich A

2017-09-27

Theories like predictive coding propose that lower-order brain areas compare their inputs to predictions derived from higher-order representations and signal their deviation as a prediction error. Here, we investigate whether the macaque face-processing system, a three-level hierarchy in the ventral stream, employs such a coding strategy. We show that after statistical learning of specific face sequences, the lower-level face area ML computes the deviation of actual from predicted stimuli. But these signals do not reflect the tuning characteristic of ML. Rather, they exhibit identity specificity and view invariance, the tuning properties of higher-level face areas AL and AM. Thus, learning appears to endow lower-level areas with the capability to test predictions at a higher level of abstraction than what is afforded by the feedforward sweep. These results provide evidence for computational architectures like predictive coding and suggest a new quality of functional organization of information-processing hierarchies beyond pure feedforward schemes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water Habitat Study: Prediction Makes It More Meaningful.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glasgow, Dennis R.

1982-01-01

Suggests a teaching strategy for water habitat studies to help students make a meaningful connection between physiochemical data (dissolved oxygen content, pH, and water temperature) and biological specimens they collect. Involves constructing a poster and using it to make predictions. Provides sample poster. (DC)

Uncertainty estimation of water levels for the Mitch flood event in Tegucigalpa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes Andino, D. C.; Halldin, S.; Lundin, L.; Xu, C.

2012-12-01

Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left a devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras. Simulation of elevated water surfaces provides a good way to understand the hydraulic mechanism of large flood events. In this study the one-dimensional HEC-RAS model for steady flow conditions together with the two-dimensional Lisflood-fp model were used to estimate the water level for the Mitch event in the river reaches at Tegucigalpa. Parameters uncertainty of the model was investigated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework. Because of the extremely large magnitude of the Mitch flood, no hydrometric measurements were taken during the event. However, post-event indirect measurements of discharge and observed water levels were obtained in previous works by JICA and USGS. To overcome the problem of lacking direct hydrometric measurement data, uncertainty in the discharge was estimated. Both models could well define the value for channel roughness, though more dispersion resulted from the floodplain value. Analysis of the data interaction showed that there was a tradeoff between discharge at the outlet and floodplain roughness for the 1D model. The estimated discharge range at the outlet of the study area encompassed the value indirectly estimated by JICA, however the indirect method used by the USGS overestimated the value. If behavioral parameter sets can well reproduce water surface levels for past events such as Mitch, more reliable predictions for future events can be expected. The results acquired in this research will provide guidelines to deal with the problem of modeling past floods when no direct data was measured during the event, and to predict future large events taking uncertainty into account. The obtained range of the uncertain flood extension will be an outcome useful for decision makers.

Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model.

PubMed

Aregawi, Wondwosen A; Abera, Metadel K; Fanta, Solomon W; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

2014-11-19

A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus × domestica Borkh. cv. 'Jonagold') during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick's second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell's rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range ( > 97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical deformation.

Integrated Application of Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network Algorithms to Predict Viral Contamination in Coastal Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamkhali Chenar, S.; Deng, Z.

2017-12-01

Pathogenic viruses pose a significant public health threat and economic losses to shellfish industry in the coastal environment. Norovirus is a contagious virus and the leading cause of epidemic gastroenteritis following consumption of oysters harvested from sewage-contaminated waters. While it is challenging to detect noroviruses in coastal waters due to the lack of sensitive and routine diagnostic methods, machine learning techniques are allowing us to prevent or at least reduce the risks by developing effective predictive models. This study attempts to develop an algorithm between historical norovirus outbreak reports and environmental parameters including water temperature, solar radiation, water level, salinity, precipitation, and wind. For this purpose, the Random Forests statistical technique was utilized to select relevant environmental parameters and their various combinations with different time lags controlling the virus distribution in oyster harvesting areas along the Louisiana Coast. An Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approach was then presented to predict the outbreaks using a final set of input variables. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the model output. Findings demonstrated that the developed model was capable of reproducing historical oyster norovirus outbreaks along the Louisiana Coast with the overall accuracy of than 99.83%, demonstrating the efficacy of the model. Moreover, the increase in water temperature, solar radiation, water level, and salinity, and the decrease in wind and rainfall are associated with the reduction in the model-predicted risk of norovirus outbreak according to sensitivity analysis results. In conclusion, the presented machine learning approach provided reliable tools for predicting potential norovirus outbreaks and could be used for early detection of possible outbreaks and reduce the risk of norovirus to public health and the

A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

PubMed

Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

2014-01-01

Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

PubMed Central

Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

2014-01-01

Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

Treesearch

D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

2011-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

Computer program to predict aircraft noise levels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, B. J.

1981-01-01

Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources were programmed to predict aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. The noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. Outputs can include spectra, overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, tone-weighted perceived noise level, and effective perceived noise level at locations specified by the user. Footprint contour coordinates and approximate footprint areas can also be calculated. Inputs and outputs can be in either System International or U.S. customary units. The subroutines for each noise source and propagation correction are described. A complete listing is given.

Hierarchical prediction of industrial water demand based on refined Laspeyres decomposition analysis.

PubMed

Shang, Yizi; Lu, Shibao; Gong, Jiaguo; Shang, Ling; Li, Xiaofei; Wei, Yongping; Shi, Hongwang

2017-12-01

A recent study decomposed the changes in industrial water use into three hierarchies (output, technology, and structure) using a refined Laspeyres decomposition model, and found monotonous and exclusive trends in the output and technology hierarchies. Based on that research, this study proposes a hierarchical prediction approach to forecast future industrial water demand. Three water demand scenarios (high, medium, and low) were then established based on potential future industrial structural adjustments, and used to predict water demand for the structural hierarchy. The predictive results of this approach were compared with results from a grey prediction model (GPM (1, 1)). The comparison shows that the results of the two approaches were basically identical, differing by less than 10%. Taking Tianjin, China, as a case, and using data from 2003-2012, this study predicts that industrial water demand will continuously increase, reaching 580 million m 3 , 776.4 million m 3 , and approximately 1.09 billion m 3 by the years 2015, 2020 and 2025 respectively. It is concluded that Tianjin will soon face another water crisis if no immediate measures are taken. This study recommends that Tianjin adjust its industrial structure with water savings as the main objective, and actively seek new sources of water to increase its supply.

iSPUW: integrated sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Nazari, B.; Habibi, H.; Norouzi, A.; Nabatian, M.; Seo, D. J.; Bartos, M. D.; Kerkez, B.; Lakshman, L.; Zink, M.; Lee, J.

2016-12-01

Many cities face tremendous water-related challenges in this Century of the City. Urban areas are particularly susceptible not only to excesses and shortages of water but also to impaired water quality. To addresses these challenges, we synergistically integrate advances in computing and cyber-infrastructure, environmental modeling, geoscience, and information science to develop integrative solutions for urban water challenges. In this presentation, we describe the various efforts that are currently ongoing in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area for iSPUW: real-time high-resolution flash flood forecasting, inundation mapping for large urban areas, crowdsourcing of water observations in urban areas, real-time assimilation of crowdsourced observations for street and river flooding, integrated control of lawn irrigation and rainwater harvesting for water conservation and stormwater management, feature mining with causal discovery for flood prediction, and development of the Arlington Urban Hydroinformatics Testbed. Analyzed is the initial data of sensor network for water level and lawn monitoring, and cellphone applications for crowdsourcing flood reports. New data assimilation approaches to deal with categorical and continuous observations are also evaluated via synthetic experiments.

Modeling and experimental examination of water level effects on radon exhalation from fragmented uranium ore.

PubMed

Ye, Yong-Jun; Dai, Xin-Tao; Ding, De-Xin; Zhao, Ya-Li

2016-12-01

In this study, a one-dimensional steady-state mathematical model of radon transport in fragmented uranium ore was established according to Fick's law and radon transfer theory in an air-water interface. The model was utilized to obtain an analytical solution for radon concentration in the air-water, two-phase system under steady state conditions, as well as a corresponding radon exhalation rate calculation formula. We also designed a one-dimensional experimental apparatus for simulating radon diffusion migration in the uranium ore with various water levels to verify the mathematical model. The predicted results were in close agreement with the measured results, suggesting that the proposed model can be readily used to determine radon concentrations and exhalation rates in fragmented uranium ore with varying water levels. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Drinking Water Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

National Primary Drinking Water Regulations (NPDWRs or primary standards) are legally enforceable standards that apply to public water systems. Primary standards protect public health by limiting the levels of contaminants in drinking water.

Rapid and accurate prediction and scoring of water molecules in protein binding sites.

PubMed

Ross, Gregory A; Morris, Garrett M; Biggin, Philip C

2012-01-01

Water plays a critical role in ligand-protein interactions. However, it is still challenging to predict accurately not only where water molecules prefer to bind, but also which of those water molecules might be displaceable. The latter is often seen as a route to optimizing affinity of potential drug candidates. Using a protocol we call WaterDock, we show that the freely available AutoDock Vina tool can be used to predict accurately the binding sites of water molecules. WaterDock was validated using data from X-ray crystallography, neutron diffraction and molecular dynamics simulations and correctly predicted 97% of the water molecules in the test set. In addition, we combined data-mining, heuristic and machine learning techniques to develop probabilistic water molecule classifiers. When applied to WaterDock predictions in the Astex Diverse Set of protein ligand complexes, we could identify whether a water molecule was conserved or displaced to an accuracy of 75%. A second model predicted whether water molecules were displaced by polar groups or by non-polar groups to an accuracy of 80%. These results should prove useful for anyone wishing to undertake rational design of new compounds where the displacement of water molecules is being considered as a route to improved affinity.

Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

2014-12-01

This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

Water-level fluctuations influence sediment porewater ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Reservoirs typically have elevated fish mercury (Hg) levels compared to natural lakes and rivers. A unique feature of reservoirs is water-level management which can result in sediment exposure to the air. The objective of this study is to identify how reservoir water-level fluctuations impact Hg cycling, particularly the formation of the more toxic and bioaccumulative methylmercury (MeHg). Total-Hg (THg), MeHg, stable isotope methylation rates and several ancillary parameters were measured in reservoir sediments (including some in porewater and overlying water) that are seasonally and permanently inundated. The results showed that sediment and porewater MeHg concentrations were over 3-times higher in areas experiencing water-level fluctuations compared to permanently inundated sediments. Analysis of the data suggest that the enhanced breakdown of organic matter in sediments experiencing water-level fluctuations has a two-fold effect on stimulating Hg methylation: 1) it increases the partitioning of inorganic Hg from the solid phase into the porewater phase (lower log Kd values) where it is more bioavailable for methylation; and 2) it increases dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the porewater which can stimulate the microbial community that can methylate Hg. Sulfate concentrations and cycling were enhanced in the seasonally inundated sediments and may have also contributed to increased MeHg production. Overall, our results suggest that reservoir management a

Toward prediction of alkane/water partition coefficients.

PubMed

Toulmin, Anita; Wood, J Matthew; Kenny, Peter W

2008-07-10

Partition coefficients were measured for 47 compounds in the hexadecane/water ( P hxd) and 1-octanol/water ( P oct) systems. Some types of hydrogen bond acceptor presented by these compounds to the partitioning systems are not well represented in the literature of alkane/water partitioning. The difference, DeltalogP, between logP oct and logP hxd is a measure of the hydrogen bonding potential of a molecule and is identified as a target for predictive modeling. Minimized molecular electrostatic potential ( V min) was shown to be an effective predictor of the contribution of hydrogen bond acceptors to DeltalogP. Carbonyl oxygen atoms were found to be stronger hydrogen bond acceptors for their electrostatic potential than heteroaromatic nitrogen or oxygen bound to hypervalent sulfur or nitrogen. Values of V min calculated for hydrogen-bonded complexes were used to explore polarization effects. Predicted logP hxd and DeltalogP were shown to be more effective than logP oct for modeling brain penetration for a data set of 18 compounds.

Predicting water consumption habits for seven arsenic-safe water options in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Inauen, Jennifer; Tobias, Robert; Mosler, Hans-Joachim

2013-05-01

In Bangladesh, 20 million people are at the risk of developing arsenicosis because of excessive arsenic intake. Despite increased awareness, many of the implemented arsenic-safe water options are not being sufficiently used by the population. This study investigated the role of social-cognitive factors in explaining the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. Eight hundred seventy-two randomly selected households in six arsenic-affected districts of rural Bangladesh, which had access to an arsenic-safe water option, were interviewed using structured face-to-face interviews in November 2009. Habitual use of arsenic-safe water options, severity, vulnerability, affective and instrumental attitudes, injunctive and descriptive norms, self-efficacy, and coping planning were measured. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Linear regression revealed that self-efficacy (B = 0.42, SE = .03, p < .001), the instrumental attitude towards the safe water option (B = 0.24, SE = .04, p < .001), the affective attitude towards contaminated tube wells (B = -0.04, SE = .02, p = .024), vulnerability (B = -0.20, SE = .02, p < .001), as well as injunctive (B = 0.08, SE = 0.04, p = .049) and descriptive norms (B = 0.34, SE = .03, p < .001) primarily explained the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options (R2 = 0.688). This model proved highly generalizable to all seven arsenic-safe water options investigated, even though habitual use of single options were predicted on the basis of parameters estimated without these options. This general model for the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options may prove useful to predict other water consumption habits. Behavior-change interventions are derived from the model to promote the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options.

Predicting water consumption habits for seven arsenic-safe water options in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In Bangladesh, 20 million people are at the risk of developing arsenicosis because of excessive arsenic intake. Despite increased awareness, many of the implemented arsenic-safe water options are not being sufficiently used by the population. This study investigated the role of social-cognitive factors in explaining the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. Methods Eight hundred seventy-two randomly selected households in six arsenic-affected districts of rural Bangladesh, which had access to an arsenic-safe water option, were interviewed using structured face-to-face interviews in November 2009. Habitual use of arsenic-safe water options, severity, vulnerability, affective and instrumental attitudes, injunctive and descriptive norms, self-efficacy, and coping planning were measured. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Results Linear regression revealed that self-efficacy (B = 0.42, SE = .03, p < .001), the instrumental attitude towards the safe water option (B = 0.24, SE = .04, p < .001), the affective attitude towards contaminated tube wells (B = −0.04, SE = .02, p = .024), vulnerability (B = −0.20, SE = .02, p < .001), as well as injunctive (B = 0.08, SE = 0.04, p = .049) and descriptive norms (B = 0.34, SE = .03, p < .001) primarily explained the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options (R2 = 0.688). This model proved highly generalizable to all seven arsenic-safe water options investigated, even though habitual use of single options were predicted on the basis of parameters estimated without these options. Conclusions This general model for the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options may prove useful to predict other water consumption habits. Behavior-change interventions are derived from the model to promote the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. PMID:23634950

Predictive Monitoring for Improved Management of Glucose Levels

PubMed Central

Reifman, Jaques; Rajaraman, Srinivasan; Gribok, Andrei; Ward, W. Kenneth

2007-01-01

Background Recent developments and expected near-future improvements in continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices provide opportunities to couple them with mathematical forecasting models to produce predictive monitoring systems for early, proactive glycemia management of diabetes mellitus patients before glucose levels drift to undesirable levels. This article assesses the feasibility of data-driven models to serve as the forecasting engine of predictive monitoring systems. Methods We investigated the capabilities of data-driven autoregressive (AR) models to (1) capture the correlations in glucose time-series data, (2) make accurate predictions as a function of prediction horizon, and (3) be made portable from individual to individual without any need for model tuning. The investigation is performed by employing CGM data from nine type 1 diabetic subjects collected over a continuous 5-day period. Results With CGM data serving as the gold standard, AR model-based predictions of glucose levels assessed over nine subjects with Clarke error grid analysis indicated that, for a 30-minute prediction horizon, individually tuned models yield 97.6 to 100.0% of data in the clinically acceptable zones A and B, whereas cross-subject, portable models yield 95.8 to 99.7% of data in zones A and B. Conclusions This study shows that, for a 30-minute prediction horizon, data-driven AR models provide sufficiently-accurate and clinically-acceptable estimates of glucose levels for timely, proactive therapy and should be considered as the modeling engine for predictive monitoring of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. It also suggests that AR models can be made portable from individual to individual with minor performance penalties, while greatly reducing the burden associated with model tuning and data collection for model development. PMID:19885110

Fluctuations of ground-water levels in Lee County, Florida, in 1975 water year

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, T. H.

1977-01-01

During the 1975 water year, rainfall was about average at Page Field, Florida, and from 20-25 percent below average at Lehigh Acres and Sanibel Island. Water levels were monitored in 57 observation wells in Lee County, Florida. Of the 23 wells that tap the water-table aquifer, one record high and 5 record low water levels were established. Record low water levels were established in 5 of 20 wells that tap the sandstone aquifer and in 1 of 10 wells that tap the upper Hawthorn aquifer. A record high water level was established in 1 of 3 wells that tap the lower Hawthorn aquifer. (Woodard-USGS)

Accounting for water levels and black carbon-inclusive sediment-water partitioning of organochlorines in Lesser Himalaya, Pakistan using two-carbon model.

PubMed

Ali, Usman; Sweetman, Andrew James; Jones, Kevin C; Malik, Riffat Naseem

2018-06-18

This study was designed to monitor organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in riverine water of Lesser Himalaya along the altitude. Further, the sediment-water partitioning employing organic carbon and black carbon models were assessed. Results revealed higher water levels of organochlorine pesticides (0.07-41.4 ng L -1 ) and polychlorinated biphenyls (0.671-84.5 ng L -1 ) in Lesser Himalayan Region (LHR) of Pakistan. Spatially, elevated levels were observed in the altitudinal zone (737-975 masl) which is influenced by anthropogenic and industrial activities. Sediment-water partitioning of OCPs and PCBs were deduced using field data by employing one-carbon (f OC K OC ) and two-carbon Freundlich models (f OC K OC + f BC K BC C W nF-1 ). Results suggested improved measured vs predicted model concentrations when black carbon was induced in the model and suggested adsorption to be the dominant mechanism in phase partitioning of organochlorines in LHR.

A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

PubMed

Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-10-27

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Regression models of monthly water-level change in and near the Closed Basin Division of the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, Kenneth R.

1995-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is developing a water-resource project, the Closed Basin Division, in the San Luis Valley of south-central Colorado that is designed to salvage unconfined ground water that currently is discharged as evapotranspiration. The water table in and near the 130,000-acre Closed Basin Division area will be lowered by an annual withdrawal of as much as 100,000 acre-feet of ground water from the unconfined aquifer. The legislation authorizing the project limits resulting drawdown of the water table in preexisting irrigation and domestic wells outside the Closed Basin Division to a maximum of 2 feet. Water levels in the closed basin in the northern part of the San Luis Valley historically have fluctuated more than 2 feet in response to water-use practices and variation of climatically controlled recharge and discharge. Declines of water levels in nearby wells that are caused by withdrawals in the Closed Basin Division can be quantified if water-level fluctuations that result from other water-use practices and climatic variations can be estimated. This study was done to evaluate water-level change at selected observation wells in and near the Closed Basin Division. Regression models of monthly water-level change were developed to predict monthly water-level change in 46 selected observation wells. Predictions of monthly water-level change are based on one or more of the following: elapsed time, cosine and sine functions with an annual period, streamflow depletion of the Rio Grande, electrical use for agricultural purposes, runoff into the closed basin, precipitation, and mean air temperature. Regression models for five of the wells include only an intercept term and either an elapsed-time term or terms determined by the cosine and sine functions. Regression models for the other 41 wells include 1 to 4 of the 5 other variables, which can vary from month to month and from year to year. Serial correlation of the residuals was detected in 24 of the

Diffusion coefficients in organic-water solutions and comparison with Stokes-Einstein predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evoy, E.; Kamal, S.; Bertram, A. K.

2017-12-01

Diffusion coefficients of organic species in particles containing secondary organic material (SOM) are necessary for predicting the growth and reactivity of these particles in the atmosphere. Previously, the Stokes-Einstein equation combined with viscosity measurements have been used to predict these diffusion coefficients. However, the accuracy of the Stokes-Einstein equation for predicting diffusion coefficients in SOM-water particles has not been quantified. To test the Stokes-Einstein equation, diffusion coefficients of fluorescent organic probe molecules were measured in citric acid-water and sorbitol-water solutions. These solutions were used as proxies for SOM-water particles found in the atmosphere. Measurements were performed as a function of water activity, ranging from 0.26-0.86, and as a function of viscosity ranging from 10-3 to 103 Pa s. Diffusion coefficients were measured using fluorescence recovery after photobleaching. The measured diffusion coefficients were compared with predictions made using the Stokes-Einstein equation combined with literature viscosity data. Within the uncertainties of the measurements, the measured diffusion coefficients agreed with the predicted diffusion coefficients, in all cases.

Carboxyhaemoglobin levels in water-pipe and cigarette smokers.

PubMed

Theron, Ansa; Schultz, Cedric; Ker, James A; Falzone, Nadia

2010-01-29

Water-pipe smoking is growing in popularity, especially among young people, because of the social nature of the smoking session and the assumption that the effects are less harmful than those of cigarette smoking. It has however been shown that a single water-pipe smoking session produces a 24-hour urinary cotinine level equivalent to smoking 10 cigarettes per day. We aimed to measure carboxyhaemoglogin (COHb) blood levels before and after water-pipe and cigarette smoking sessions. Self-confessed smokers older than 18 years (N=30) volunteered to smoke a water-pipe or a cigarette and have their blood COHb levels measured under controlled conditions. Mean baseline COHb levels were 2.9% for the 15 cigarette smokers and 1.0% for the 15 water-pipe smokers. Levels increased by a mean of 481.7% in water-pipe smokers as opposed to 39.9% in cigarette smokers. The study demonstrated that water-pipe smokers had significantly higher increases in blood COHb levels than cigarette smokers during a single smoking session.

Statistical procedures for determination and verification of minimum reporting levels for drinking water methods.

PubMed

Winslow, Stephen D; Pepich, Barry V; Martin, John J; Hallberg, George R; Munch, David J; Frebis, Christopher P; Hedrick, Elizabeth J; Krop, Richard A

2006-01-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water has developed a single-laboratory quantitation procedure: the lowest concentration minimum reporting level (LCMRL). The LCMRL is the lowest true concentration for which future recovery is predicted to fall, with high confidence (99%), between 50% and 150%. The procedure takes into account precision and accuracy. Multiple concentration replicates are processed through the entire analytical method and the data are plotted as measured sample concentration (y-axis) versus true concentration (x-axis). If the data support an assumption of constant variance over the concentration range, an ordinary least-squares regression line is drawn; otherwise, a variance-weighted least-squares regression is used. Prediction interval lines of 99% confidence are drawn about the regression. At the points where the prediction interval lines intersect with data quality objective lines of 50% and 150% recovery, lines are dropped to the x-axis. The higher of the two values is the LCMRL. The LCMRL procedure is flexible because the data quality objectives (50-150%) and the prediction interval confidence (99%) can be varied to suit program needs. The LCMRL determination is performed during method development only. A simpler procedure for verification of data quality objectives at a given minimum reporting level (MRL) is also presented. The verification procedure requires a single set of seven samples taken through the entire method procedure. If the calculated prediction interval is contained within data quality recovery limits (50-150%), the laboratory performance at the MRL is verified.

Ground-water level data for North Carolina, 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coble, Ronald W.; Strickland, A.G.; Bailey, M. Carl

1989-01-01

Continuous and periodic measurements in 54 key wells and water-level measurements emplaced in Coastal Plain aquifers across North Carolina in 193 supplemental wells are presented in this report. Hydrographs of selected wells show changes in ground-water storage in the State. The water table in the shallow aquifers was higher throughout most of the State in 1987 than in 1986, indicating that rain had recharged these aquifers sufficiently to replenish the deficit in ground water storage that accumulated in the western and central parts of the State during 1986. Water levels in the heavily pumped Coastal Plain aquifers show a general downward trend for the year, indicating ground water is being withdrawn from aquifer storage. Record low water levels were measured in 4 of 13 wells in the Castle Hayne aquifer; the greatest decline measured during 1987 was 0.3 ft. Water levels in wells in the Peedee, Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers generally show downward trends. Record low water levels were measured in 4 of 8 wells in the Peedee aquifer; the maximum decline measured during 1987 was 1.5 ft. All wells in the Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers had record low water levels for 1987, with maximum measured declines in 1987 of 8.6, 3.1, and 3.1 ft., respectively. Record high water levels were measured in two wells, one each in the Castle Hayne and Peedee aquifers. Potentiometric surface maps show the effects of major centers of pumping for the Castle Hayne, Black Creek, and lower Cape Fear aquifers of the Coastal Plain.

Replacement predictions for drinking water networks through historical data.

PubMed

Malm, Annika; Ljunggren, Olle; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R; Morrison, Gregory M

2012-05-01

Lifetime distribution functions and current network age data can be combined to provide an assessment of the future replacement needs for drinking water distribution networks. Reliable lifetime predictions are limited by a lack of understanding of deterioration processes for different pipe materials under varied conditions. An alternative approach is the use of real historical data for replacement over an extended time series. In this paper, future replacement needs are predicted through historical data representing more than one hundred years of drinking water pipe replacement in Gothenburg, Sweden. The verified data fits well with commonly used lifetime distribution curves. Predictions for the future are discussed in the context of path dependence theory. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential Seasonal Predictability of Water Cycle in Observations and Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Houser, P.

2012-12-01

Identification of predictability of water cycle variability is crucial for climate prediction, water resources availability, ecosystem management and hazard mitigation. An analysis that can assess the potential skill in seasonal prediction was proposed by the authors, named as analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA). This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. It has the advantage of taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. During the past several years, multiple reanalysis datasets have become available for studying climate variability and understanding climate system. We are motivated to compare the potential predictability of water cycle variation from different reanalysis datasets against observations using the newly proposed ANOCOVA method. The selected eight reanalyses include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 40-year Reanalysis Project (NNRP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis Project (NDRP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis, The Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA25), the ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERAINT), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA/CIRES) 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 (20CR). For key water cycle components, precipitation and evaporation, all reanalyses consistently show high fraction of predictable variance in the tropics, low

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

PubMed Central

Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-01-01

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

Description of trihalomethane levels in three UK water suppliers.

PubMed

Whitaker, Heather; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J; Best, Nicola; Fawell, John; Gowers, Alison; Elliot, Paul

2003-01-01

Samples of drinking water are routinely analysed for four trihalomethanes (THMs), which are indicators of by-products of disinfection with chlorine, by UK water suppliers to demonstrate compliance with regulations. The THM data for 1992-1993 to 1997-1998 for three water suppliers in the north and midlands of England were made available for a UK epidemiological study of the association between disinfection by-products and adverse birth outcomes. This paper describes the THM levels in these three supply regions and discusses possible sources of variation. THM levels varied between different suppliers' water, and average THM levels were within the regulatory limits. Chloroform was the predominant THM in all water types apart from the ground water of one supplier. The supplier that distributed more ground and lowland surface water had higher dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform levels and lower chloroform levels than the other two suppliers. In the water of two suppliers, seasonal fluctuations in bromodichloromethane (BDCM) and DBCM levels were found with levels peaking in the summer and autumn. In the other water supplier, chloroform levels followed a similar seasonal trend whereas BDCM and DBCM levels did not. For all three water suppliers, chloroform levels declined throughout 1995 when there was a drought period. There was a moderate positive correlation between the THMs most similar in their structure (chloroform and BDCM, BDCM and DBCM, and DBCM and bromoform) and a slight negative correlation between chloroform and bromoform levels.

Water level effects on breaking wave setup for Pacific Island fringing reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.; Ford, M.

2014-02-01

The effects of water level variations on breaking wave setup over fringing reefs are assessed using field measurements obtained at three study sites in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Mariana Islands in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. At each site, reef flat setup varies over the tidal range with weaker setup at high tide and stronger setup at low tide for a given incident wave height. The observed water level dependence is interpreted in the context of radiation stress gradients specified by an idealized point break model generalized for nonnormally incident waves. The tidally varying setup is due in part to depth-limited wave heights on the reef flat, as anticipated from previous reef studies, but also to tidally dependent breaking on the reef face. The tidal dependence of the breaking is interpreted in the context of the point break model in terms of a tidally varying wave height to water depth ratio at breaking. Implications for predictions of wave-driven setup at reef-fringed island shorelines are discussed.

Simulated Effects of Projected 2010 Withdrawals on Ground-Water Flow and Water Levels in the New Jersey Coastal Plain - A Task of the New Jersey Water Supply Plan, 2006 Revision

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gordon, Alison D.

2007-01-01

A ground-water flow model previously developed as part of a Regional Aquifer System Analysis (RASA) of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was used to simulate ground-water flow in eight major confined aquifers to help evaluate ground-water resources in support of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection's revision of the New Jersey State Water Supply Plan. This model was calibrated to 1998 steady-state and transient conditions. Withdrawals at wells in operation in 1998 were varied in three scenarios to evaluate their effects on flow directions, water levels, and water budgets in the confined aquifers. The scenarios used to predict changes in pumpage from 1998 to 2010 were based on (1) a continuation of 1990-99 trends in water use, (2) public-supply withdrawals estimated from county population projections, and (3) restricted withdrawals in Water-Supply Critical Areas. Total withdrawals in these three scenarios were approximately 366, 362, and 355 million gallons per day, respectively. The results of these simulations are used by New Jersey water-management officials to help address water-supply concerns for the State. In the revision of the New Jersey State Water Supply Plan, the eight major confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain and their outcrop areas are divided into 41 hydrologic budget areas (HBAs). Simulation results were used to assess the effects of changing ground-water withdrawals on water levels and the flow budgets in each budget area. Simulation results for each scenario were compared with 1998 (baseline) simulated water levels and flow budgets. The 41 hydrologic budget areas are in areas of large ground-water withdrawals, water-level declines, and (or) saltwater-intrusion potential. Their boundaries are based on various hydrologic, geohydrologic, and withdrawal conditions, such as aquifer extent, location of the 250-milligram-per-liter isochlor, aquifer outcrop area, and ground-water divides. The budget areas include primarily the

Reduction in predicted survival times in cold water due to wind and waves.

PubMed

Power, Jonathan; Simões Ré, António; Barwood, Martin; Tikuisis, Peter; Tipton, Michael

2015-07-01

Recent marine accidents have called into question the level of protection provided by immersion suits in real (harsh) life situations. Two immersion suit studies, one dry and the other with 500 mL of water underneath the suit, were conducted in cold water with 10-12 males in each to test body heat loss under three environmental conditions: calm, as mandated for immersion suit certification, and two combinations of wind plus waves to simulate conditions typically found offshore. In both studies mean skin heat loss was higher in wind and waves vs. calm; deep body temperature and oxygen consumption were not different. Mean survival time predictions exceeded 36 h for all conditions in the first study but were markedly less in the second in both calm and wind and waves. Immersion suit protection and consequential predicted survival times under realistic environmental conditions and with leakage are reduced relative to calm conditions. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K...

7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K...

7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K...

7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K...

7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K...

Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.

2011-01-01

To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

Recent and late quaternary changes in water level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walcott, R. I.

1975-01-01

Water level changes of both the Great Lakes and the sea are described along with methods of analyzing water level data. The influence of elastic deformation of the earth and viscosity is discussed. Causes of water level changes reviewed include: earth movements, geoid changes, storm surges or meteorological phenomena, and melting ice in Antarctica, Greenland, and the mountain glaciers.

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model -- Documentation of MOD-PREDICT for predictions, prediction sensitivity analysis, and evaluation of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tonkin, M.J.; Hill, Mary C.; Doherty, John

2003-01-01

This document describes the MOD-PREDICT program, which helps evaluate userdefined sets of observations, prior information, and predictions, using the ground-water model MODFLOW-2000. MOD-PREDICT takes advantage of the existing Observation and Sensitivity Processes (Hill and others, 2000) by initiating runs of MODFLOW-2000 and using the output files produced. The names and formats of the MODFLOW-2000 input files are unchanged, such that full backward compatibility is maintained. A new name file and input files are required for MOD-PREDICT. The performance of MOD-PREDICT has been tested in a variety of applications. Future applications, however, might reveal errors that were not detected in the test simulations. Users are requested to notify the U.S. Geological Survey of any errors found in this document or the computer program using the email address available at the web address below. Updates might occasionally be made to this document, to the MOD-PREDICT program, and to MODFLOW- 2000. Users can check for updates on the Internet at URL http://water.usgs.gov/software/ground water.html/.

Flood Water Level Mapping and Prediction Due to Dam Failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musa, S.; Adnan, M. S.; Ahmad, N. A.; Ayob, S.

2016-07-01

Sembrong dam has undergone overflow failure. Flooding has been reported to hit the town, covering an area of up to Parit Raja, located in the district of Batu Pahat. This study aims to identify the areas that will be affected by flood in the event of a dam failure in Sembrong Dam, Kluang, Johor at a maximum level. To grasp the extent, the flood inundation maps have been generated by using the InfoWorks ICM and GIS software. By using these maps, information such as the depth and extent of floods can be identified the main ares flooded. The flood map was created starting with the collection of relevant data such as measuring the depth of the river and a maximum flow rate for Sembrong Dam. The data were obtained from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Malaysia and the Department of Survey and Mapping and HLA Associates Sdn. Bhd. Then, the data were analyzed according to the established Info Works ICM method. The results found that the flooded area were listed at Sri Lalang, Parit Sagil, Parit Sonto, Sri Paya, Parit Raja, Parit Sempadan, Talang Bunut, Asam Bubok, Tanjung Sembrong, Sungai Rambut and Parit Haji Talib. Flood depth obtained for the related area started from 0.5 m up to 1.2 m. As a conclusion, the flood emanating from this study include the area around the town of Ayer Hitam up to Parit Raja approximately of more than 20 km distance. This may give bad implication to residents around these areas. In future studies, other rivers such as Sungai Batu Pahat should be considered for this study to predict and reduce the yearly flood victims for this area.

Wheat: Its water use, production and disease detection and prediction. [Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanemasu, E. T. (Principal Investigator); Lenhert, D.; Niblett, C.; Manges, H.; Eversmeyer, M. G.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Discussed in this report are: (1) the effects of wheat disease on water use and yield; and (2) the use of ERTS-1 imagery in the evaluation of wheat growth and in the detection of disease severity. Leaf area index was linearly correlated with ratios MSS4:MSS5 and MSS5:MSS6. In an area of severe wheat streak mosaic virus infected fields, correlations of ERTS-1 digital counts with wheat yields and disease severity levels were significant at the 5% level for MSS bands 4 and 5 and band ratios 4/6 and 4/7. Data collection platforms were used to gather meteorological data for the early prediction of rust severity and economic loss.

A regional neural network model for predicting mean daily river water temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell

2014-01-01

Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate

Water levels in observation wells in Nebraska during 1955

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keech, C.F.

1956-01-01

The objective of the dbservation-well program in Nebraska is to provide an evaluation of the status of the ground-water supplies. Many uses for water-.level data are known but not all potential uses can be forseen. Among the important uses are the following:To indicate the status of ground water in storage or in transit and the availability of supplies.To show the trend of ground-water supplies and the outlook for the future.To estimate or forcast the base flow of streams.To indicate areas in which the water level is approaching too close to the land surface (water-logging) or is receding toward economic limits of lift or tow rd impairment by water of poor quality.To provide long-term vidence for evaluating the effectiveness of land-management and water...0 nservation programs in relation to water conservation actually of ected, and for use in basin or "watershed" studies.To provide longterm ontinuous records to serve as a framework to which short-term records collected during intensive investigation may be related.The water level in an observation well functions as a gage to indicate the position of the water table o The water table is defined as the upper surface of the zone of saturation except where that surface is formed by overlying impermeable materials. The water table is also the boundary between the zone of saturation and the zone of aeration. It is not a level surface but is a sloping surface that has many irregularities, and it often conforms in a general way to the land surface. The irregularities are caused by several factors. In places where the recharge to the ground-water reservoir is exceptionally large, the water-table may rise to form a mound from which the water slowly spreads. Depressions or troughs in the water table indicate places where the ground water is discharging, as along streams that are below the normal level of the water table, or indicate places where water is being withdrawn by wells or vegetation.The several factors that

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

A water marker monitored by satellites to predict seasonal endemic cholera.

PubMed

Jutla, Antarpreet; Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Huq, Anwar; Faruque, Abu Syed Golam; Colwell, Rita; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The ability to predict an occurrence of cholera, a water-related disease, offers a significant public health advantage. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for plankton abundance, have been linked to cholera incidence. However, cholera bacteria can survive under a variety of coastal ecological conditions, thus constraining the predictive ability of the chlorophyll, since it provides only an estimate of greenness of seawater. Here, a new remote sensing based index is proposed: Satellite Water Marker (SWM), which estimates condition of coastal water, based on observed variability in the difference between blue (412 nm) and green (555 nm) wavelengths that can be related to seasonal cholera incidence. The index is bounded between physically separable wavelengths for relatively clear (blue) and turbid (green) water. Using SWM, prediction of cholera with reasonable accuracy, with at least two month in advance, can potentially be achieved in the endemic coastal regions.

Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Page, Juliet A.; Hobbs, Christopher M.; Plotkin, Kenneth J.; Stusnick, Eric; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

Hydrogeology, ground-water use, and ground-water levels in the Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles; Schumann, Thomas

2002-01-01

Withdrawals of ground water in the central Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio, caused water-level declines of more than 100 feet by the 1950s. Since the 1950s, management practices have changed to reduce the withdrawals of ground water, and recovery of water levels in long-term monitoring wells in the valley has been documented. Changing conditions such as these prompted a survey of water use, streamflow conditions, and water levels in several aquifers in the central Mill Creek Valley, Hamilton and Butler Counties, Ohio. Geohydrologic information, water use, and water levels were compiled from historical records and collected during the regional survey. Data collected during the survey are presented in terms of updated geohydrologic information, water use in the study area, water levels in the aquifers, and interactions between ground water and surface water. Some of the data are concentrated at former Air Force Plant 36 (AFP36), which is collocated with the General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE) plant, and these data are used to describe geohydrology and water levels on a more local scale at and near the plant. A comparison of past and current ground-water use and levels indicates that the demand for ground water is decreasing and water levels are rising. Before 1955, most of the major industrial ground-water users had their own wells, ground water was mined from a confined surficial (lower) aquifer, and water levels were more than 100 feet below their predevelopment level. Since 1955, however, these users have been purchasing their water from the city of Cincinnati or a private water purveyor. The cities of Reading and Lockland, both producers of municipal ground-water supplies in the area, shut down their well fields within their city limits. Because the demand for ground-water supplies in the valley has lessened greatly since the 1950s, withdrawals have decreased, and, consequently, water levels in the lower aquifer are 65 to 105 feet higher than they were

Cascade generalized predictive control strategy for boiler drum level.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Li, Shaoyuan; Cai, Wenjian

2005-07-01

This paper proposes a cascade model predictive control scheme for boiler drum level control. By employing generalized predictive control structures for both inner and outer loops, measured and unmeasured disturbances can be effectively rejected, and drum level at constant load is maintained. In addition, nonminimum phase characteristic and system constraints in both loops can be handled effectively by generalized predictive control algorithms. Simulation results are provided to show that cascade generalized predictive control results in better performance than that of well tuned cascade proportional integral differential controllers. The algorithm has also been implemented to control a 75-MW boiler plant, and the results show an improvement over conventional control schemes.

Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

2013-07-01

The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

Prediction of the air-water partition coefficient for perfluoro-2-methyl-3-pentanone using high-level Gaussian-4 composite theoretical methods.

PubMed

Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya

2014-09-19

The air-water partition coefficient (Kaw) of perfluoro-2-methyl-3-pentanone (PFMP) was estimated using the G4MP2/G4 levels of theory and the SMD solvation model. A suite of 31 fluorinated compounds was employed to calibrate the theoretical method. Excellent agreement between experimental and directly calculated Kaw values was obtained for the calibration compounds. The PCM solvation model was found to yield unsatisfactory Kaw estimates for fluorinated compounds at both levels of theory. The HENRYWIN Kaw estimation program also exhibited poor Kaw prediction performance on the training set. Based on the resulting regression equation for the calibration compounds, the G4MP2-SMD method constrained the estimated Kaw of PFMP to the range 5-8 × 10(-6) M atm(-1). The magnitude of this Kaw range indicates almost all PFMP released into the atmosphere or near the land-atmosphere interface will reside in the gas phase, with only minor quantities dissolved in the aqueous phase as the parent compound and/or its hydrate/hydrate conjugate base. Following discharge into aqueous systems not at equilibrium with the atmosphere, significant quantities of PFMP will be present as the dissolved parent compound and/or its hydrate/hydrate conjugate base.

Demonstration of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) internet interface and services

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based FORTRAN computer simulation program for prediction of runoff and soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. To effectively run the WEPP model and interpret results additional software has been de...

Monitoring Lake and Reservoir Level: Satellite Observations, Modeling and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Adler, R. F.; Carton, J.

2013-12-01

Satellite measurements of lake and reservoir water levels complement in situ observations by providing stage information for un-gauged basins and by filling data gaps in gauge records. However, different satellite radar altimeter-derived continental water level products may differ significantly owing to choice of satellites and data processing methods. To explore the impacts of these differences, a direct comparison between three different altimeter-based surface water level estimates (USDA/NASA GRLM, LEGOS and ESA-DMU) will be presented and products validated with lake level gauge time series for lakes and reservoirs of a variety of sizes and conditions. The availability of satellite-based rainfall (i.e., TRMM and GPCP) and satellite-based lake/reservoir levels offers exciting opportunities to estimate and monitor the hydrologic properties of the lake systems. Here, a simple water balance model is utilized to relate net freshwater flux on a catchment basin to lake/reservoir level. Focused on tropical lakes and reservoirs it allows a comparison of the flux to altimetric lake level estimates. The combined use of model, satellite-based rainfall, evaporation information and reanalysis products, can be used to output water-level hindcasts and seasonal future forecasts. Such a tool is fundamental for understanding present-day and future variations in lake/reservoir levels and enabling a better understand of climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales. New model-derived water level estimates of lakes and reservoirs, on regional to global scales, would assist communities with interests in climate studies focusing on extreme events, such as floods and droughts, and be important for water resources management.

Predicting compliance with an information-based residential outdoor water conservation program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landon, Adam C.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Kaiser, Ronald A.

2016-05-01

Residential water conservation initiatives often involve some form of education or persuasion intended to change the attitudes and behaviors of residential consumers. However, the ability of these instruments to change attitudes toward conservation and their efficacy in affecting water use remains poorly understood. In this investigation the authors examine consumer attitudes toward complying with a persuasive water conservation program, the extent to which those attitudes predict compliance, and the influence of environmental contextual factors on outdoor water use. Results indicate that the persuasive program was successful in developing positive attitudes toward compliance, and that those attitudes predict water use. However, attitudinal variables explain a relatively small proportion of the variance in objectively measured water use behavior. Recommendations for policy are made stressing the importance of understanding both the effects of attitudes and environmental contextual factors in behavior change initiatives in the municipal water sector.

Supporting inland waterway transport on German waterways by operational forecasting services - water-levels, discharges, river ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meißner, Dennis; Klein, Bastian; Ionita, Monica; Hemri, Stephan; Rademacher, Silke

2017-04-01

Inland waterway transport (IWT) is an important commercial sector significantly vulnerable to hydrological impacts. River ice and floods limit the availability of the waterway network and may cause considerable damages to waterway infrastructure. Low flows significantly affect IWT's operation efficiency usually several months a year due to the close correlation of (low) water levels / water depths and (high) transport costs. Therefore "navigation-related" hydrological forecasts focussing on the specific requirements of water-bound transport (relevant forecast locations, target parameters, skill characteristics etc.) play a major role in order to mitigate IWT's vulnerability to hydro-meteorological impacts. In light of continuing transport growth within the European Union, hydrological forecasts for the waterways are essential to stimulate the use of the free capacity IWT still offers more consequently. An overview of the current operational and pre-operational forecasting systems for the German waterways predicting water levels, discharges and river ice thickness on various time-scales will be presented. While short-term (deterministic) forecasts have a long tradition in navigation-related forecasting, (probabilistic) forecasting services offering extended lead-times are not yet well-established and are still subject to current research and development activities (e.g. within the EU-projects EUPORIAS and IMPREX). The focus is on improving technical aspects as well as on exploring adequate ways of disseminating and communicating probabilistic forecast information. For the German stretch of the River Rhine, one of the most frequented inland waterways worldwide, the existing deterministic forecast scheme has been extended by ensemble forecasts combined with statistical post-processing modules applying EMOS (Ensemble Model Output Statistics) and ECC (Ensemble Copula Coupling) in order to generate water level predictions up to 10 days and to estimate its predictive

Selected water-level records for Oklahoma, 1979-80

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Willard B.; Spiser, Dannie E.

1980-01-01

Water-level data in table 1 are from wells that are measured annually, prior to the irrigation season to achieve the most natural representation of the static water level. Water level measurements listed in the column under 1979 may have been made during December 1978 or January, February, March, April, or May 1979. Measurements listed in the column 1980 may have been made during December 1979 or January, February, March, or April 1980. Figure 1 shows the counties and number of wells therein, where data were obtained for this report. Records of water levels in Oklahoma are obtained through a cooperative program by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board and the U.S. Geological Survey. The Oklahoma Water Resources Board collects water level data for all counties in the State and the records are tabulated and published by the U.S. Geological Survey on an annual basis. The stratigraphic nomenclature and age determinations used in this report are those accepted by the Oklahoma Geological Survey and do not necessarily agree with those at the U.S. Geological Survey except for the Cheyenne Sandstone which is considered to be Purgatoire Sandstone by the Oklahoma Geological Survey (Robert O. Fay, Personal Communication, August 9, 1979).

County Level Assessment of Impaired Waters and Gastrointestinal Infections

EPA Science Inventory

Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation therefore, assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water ...

Ground-water levels and quality data for Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1979-01-01

This report begins a publication format that will present annually both water-level and water-quality data in Georgia. In this format the information is presented in two-page units: the left page includes text which summarizes the information for an area or subject and the right page consists of one or more illustrations. Daily mean water-level fluctuations and trends are shown in hydrographs for the previous year and fluctuations for the monthly mean water level the previous 10 years for selected observation wells. The well data best illustrate the effects of changes in recharge and discharge in the various ground-water reservoirs in the State. A short narrative explains fluctuations and trends in each hydrograph. (Woodard-USGS)

Improved prediction of octanol-water partition coefficients from liquid-solute water solubilities and molar volumes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chiou, C.T.; Schmedding, D.W.; Manes, M.

2005-01-01

A volume-fraction-based solvent-water partition model for dilute solutes, in which the partition coefficient shows a dependence on solute molar volume (V??), is adapted to predict the octanol-water partition coefficient (K ow) from the liquid or supercooled-liquid solute water solubility (Sw), or vice versa. The established correlation is tested for a wide range of industrial compounds and pesticides (e.g., halogenated aliphatic hydrocarbons, alkylbenzenes, halogenated benzenes, ethers, esters, PAHs, PCBs, organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates, and amidesureas-triazines), which comprise a total of 215 test compounds spanning about 10 orders of magnitude in Sw and 8.5 orders of magnitude in Kow. Except for phenols and alcohols, which require special considerations of the Kow data, the correlation predicts the Kow within 0.1 log units for most compounds, much independent of the compound type or the magnitude in K ow. With reliable Sw and V data for compounds of interest, the correlation provides an effective means for either predicting the unavailable log Kow values or verifying the reliability of the reported log Kow data. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

Challenges and Alternatives in Tsunami Water Levels Processing in NOAA/NCEI-CO Global Water-Level Data Repository

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mungov, G.; Dunbar, P. K.; Stroker, K. J.; Sweeney, A.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information is data repository for high-resolution, integrated water-level data to support tsunami research, risk assessment and mitigation to protect life and property damages along the coasts. NCEI responsibilities include, but are not limited to process, archiv and distribut and coastal water level data from different sourcesg tsunami and storm-surge inundation, sea-level change, climate variability, etc. High-resolution data for global historical tsunami events are collected by the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART®) tsunameter network maintained by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center NDBC, coastal tide-gauges maintained by NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) and Tsunami Warning Centers, historic marigrams and images, bathymetric data, and from other national and international sources. NCEI-CO water level database is developed in close collaboration with all data providers along with NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. We outline here the present state in water-level data processing regarding the increasing needs for high-precision, homogeneous and "clean" tsunami records from data different sources and different sampling interval. Two tidal models are compared: the Mike Foreman's improved oceanographic model (2009) and the Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion approach applied by Tamura et al. (1991). The effects of filtering and the limits of its application are also discussed along with the used method for de-spiking the raw time series.

Evaluation of formation water chemistry and scale prediction: Bakken Shale

DOE PAGES

Thyne, Geoffrey; Brady, Patrick

2016-10-24

Determination of in situ formation water chemistry is an essential component of reservoir management. This study details the use of thermodynamic computer models to calculate reservoir pH and restore produced water analyses for prediction of scale formation. Bakken produced water samples were restored to formation conditions and calculations of scale formation performed. In situ pH is controlled by feldspar-clay equilibria. Calcite scale is readily formed due to changes in pH during pressure drop from in situ to surface conditions. The formation of anhydrite and halite scale, which has been observed, was predicted only for the most saline samples. Finally, inmore » addition, the formation of anhydrite and/or halite may be related to the localized conditions of increased salinity as water is partitioned into the gas phase during production.« less

A simplified model to predict diurnal water temperature dynamics in a shallow tropical water pool.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Heusinkveld, Bert G; Jacobs, Adrie F G

2008-11-01

Water temperature is a critical regulator in the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures, as they are poikilothermic. Measuring or estimating the diurnal temperature ranges to which these immatures are exposed is of the utmost importance, as these immatures will develop into adults that can transmit malaria. Recent attempts to predict the daily water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in Kenya have been successful. However, the developed model may be too complex, as the sophisticated equipment that was used for detailed meteorological observations is not widely distributed in Africa, making it difficult to predict the daily water temperature dynamics on a local scale. Therefore, we compared two energy budget models with earlier made observations of the daily water temperature dynamics in a small, shallow and clear water pool (diameter 0.96 m, depth 0.32 m) in Kenya. This paper describes (1) a complex 1-Dimensional model, and (2) a simplified second model, and (3) shows that both models mimic the water temperature dynamics in the water pool accurately. The latter model has the advantage that it only needs common weather data (air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and cloud cover) to estimate the diurnal temperature dynamics in breeding sites of African malaria mosquitoes.

Regional Water Table (2002) and Water-Level Changes in the Mojave River and Morongo Ground-Water Basins, Southwestern Mojave Desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Gregory A.; Stamos, Christina L.; Predmore, Steven K.

2004-01-01

The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow systems, and consequently, water availability. During 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with previous data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from about 600 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. Twenty-eight hydrographs show long-term (up to 70 years) water-level conditions throughout the basins, and 9 short-term (1997 to 2002) hydrographs show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River. In addition, a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 2000 and 2002 water levels throughout the basins. In the Mojave River ground-water basin, about 66 percent of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more since 2000 and about 27 percent of the wells had water-level declines greater than 5 ft. The only area that had water-level increases greater than 5 ft that were not attributed to fluctuations in nearby pumpage was in the Harper Lake (dry) area where there has been a significant reduction in pumpage during the last decade. In the Morongo ground-water basin, about 36 percent of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more and about 10 percent of the wells had water-level declines greater than 5 ft. Water-level increases greater than 5 ft were measured only in the Warren subbasin, where artificial

Link prediction in the network of global virtual water trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-04-01

Through the international food-trade, water resources are 'virtually' transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. The international food-trade, thus, implies a network of virtual water flows from exporting to importing countries (i.e., nodes). Given the dynamical behavior of the network, where food-trade relations (i.e., links) are created and dismissed every year, link prediction becomes a challenge. In this study, we propose a novel methodology for link prediction in the virtual water network. The model aims at identifying the main factors (among 17 different variables) driving the creation of a food-trade relation between any two countries, along the period between 1986 and 2011. Furthermore, the model can be exploited to investigate the network configuration in the future, under different possible (climatic and demographic) scenarios. The model grounds the existence of a link between any two nodes on the link weight (i.e., the virtual water flow): a link exists when the nodes exchange a minimum (fixed) volume of virtual water. Starting from a set of potential links between any two nodes, we fit the associated virtual water flows (both the real and the null ones) by means of multivariate linear regressions. Then, links with estimated flows higher than a minimum value (i.e., threshold) are considered active-links, while the others are non-active ones. The discrimination between active and non-active links through the threshold introduces an error (called link-prediction error) because some real links are lost (i.e., missed links) and some non-existing links (i.e., spurious links) are inevitably introduced in the network. The major drivers are those significantly minimizing the link-prediction error. Once the structure of the unweighted virtual water network is known, we apply, again, linear regressions to assess the major factors driving the fluxes traded along (modelled) active-links. Results indicate that, on the one hand

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Differences in influence patterns between groups predicting the adoption of a solar disinfection technology for drinking water in Bolivia.

PubMed

Moser, Stephanie; Mosler, Hans-Joachim

2008-08-01

The lack of safe drinking water is one of the major problems faced by developing countries. The consequences of contaminated water are diseases such as diarrhea, one of the main causes of infant mortality. Because of its simplicity, solar water-disinfection technology provides a good way of treating water at the household level. Despite its obvious advantages and considerable promotional activities, this innovation has had rather a slow uptake. We conducted a field survey in which 644 households in Bolivia were interviewed in order to gain insights on motivations that resulted in adopting the technology. The aim was to examine possible differences in the predictors for adopting this technology during the diffusion process using the theory of innovation diffusion. Our findings indicate that early adoption was predicted by increased involvement in the topic of drinking water and that adoption in the middle of the diffusion process was predicted by increased involvement by opinion leaders and by recognition of a majority who supported the technology. Finally, late adoption was predicted by recognition that a majority had already adopted. Suggestions for future promotional strategies are outlined.

Design of capacitive sensor for water level measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qurthobi, A.; Iskandar, R. F.; Krisnatal, A.; Weldzikarvina

2016-11-01

Capacitive sensor for water level detection has been fabricated. It has, typically, high-impedance sensor, particularly at low frequencies, as clear from the impedance (reactance) expression for a capacitor. Also, capacitive sensor is a noncontacting device in the common usage. In this research, water level sensor based on capacitive principal created using two copper plates with height (h), width (b), and distance (l) between two plates, respectively, 0.040 m, 0.015 m, and 0.010 m. 5 V pp 3 kHz AC signal is used as input signal for the system. Dielectric constant between two plates is proportional to water level. Hence, it can be used to determine water level from electrical characteristic as it inversely proportional to sensor impedance. Linearization, inverting amplifier, and rectifier circuits are used as signal conditioning for the system. Based on conducted experiment, the relationship between water level (x), capacitance (C), and output voltage (Vdc ) can be expressed as C(x) = 2.756x + 0.333 nF and Vdc (x) = 15.755 + 0.316 V.

A Simple, Inexpensive Water-Leveling Device for Ultramicrotomy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Austin E.

1978-01-01

Describes a device for maintaining the proper water level in knife boats during ultramicrotomy. Water levels in troughs are adjusted rapidly and precisely during the cutting process. Illustrations are included. (Author/MA)

Geographical distribution of drinking-water with high iodine level and association between high iodine level in drinking-water and goitre: a Chinese national investigation.

PubMed

Shen, Hongmei; Liu, Shoujun; Sun, Dianjun; Zhang, Shubin; Su, Xiaohui; Shen, Yanfeng; Han, Hepeng

2011-07-01

Excessive iodine intake can cause thyroid function disorders as can be caused by iodine deficiency. There are many people residing in areas with high iodine levels in drinking-water in China. The main aim of the present study was to map the geographical distribution of drinking-water with high iodine level in China and to determine the relationship between high iodine level in drinking-water and goitre prevalence. Iodine in drinking-water was measured in 1978 towns of eleven provinces in China, with a total of 28,857 water samples. We randomly selected children of 8-10 years old, examined the presence of goitre and measured their urinary iodine in 299 towns of nine provinces. Of the 1978 towns studied, 488 had iodine levels between 150 and 300 μg/l in drinking-water, and in 246 towns, the iodine level was >300 μg/l. These towns are mainly distributed along the original Yellow River flood areas, the second largest river in China. Of the 56 751 children examined, goitre prevalence was 6.3 % in the areas with drinking-water iodine levels of 150-300 μg/l and 11.0 % in the areas with drinking-water iodine >300 μg/l. Goitre prevalence increased with water and urinary iodine levels. For children with urinary iodine >1500 μg/l, goitre prevalence was 3.69 times higher than that for those with urinary iodine levels of 100-199 μg/l. The present study suggests that drinking-water with high iodine levels is distributed in eleven provinces of China. Goitre becomes more prevalent with the increase in iodine level in drinking-water. Therefore, it becomes important to prevent goitre through stopping the provision of iodised salt and providing normal drinking-water iodine through pipelines in these areas in China.

Predicting Risk from Radon in Source Waters from Water Quality Parameters

EPA Science Inventory

Overall, 47 groundwater samples were collected from 45 small community water systems (CWSs) and analyzed for radon and other water quality constituents. In general, groundwater from unconsolidated deposits and sedimentary rocks had lower average radon levels (ranging from 223 to...

Prediction of drinking water intake by dairy cows.

PubMed

Appuhamy, J A D R N; Judy, J V; Kebreab, E; Kononoff, P J

2016-09-01

Mathematical models that predict water intake by drinking, also known as free water intake (FWI), are useful in understanding water supply needed by animals on dairy farms. The majority of extant mathematical models for predicting FWI of dairy cows have been developed with data sets representing similar experimental conditions, not evaluated with modern cows, and often require dry matter intake (DMI) data, which may not be routinely available. The objectives of the study were to (1) develop a set of new empirical models for predicting FWI of lactating and dry cows with and without DMI using literature data, and (2) evaluate the new and the extant models using an independent set of FWI measurements made on modern cows. Random effect meta-regression analyses were conducted using 72 and 188 FWI treatment means with and without dietary electrolyte and daily mean ambient temperature (TMP) records, respectively, for lactating cows, and 19 FWI treatment means for dry cows. Milk yield, DMI, body weight, days in milk, dietary macro-nutrient contents, an aggregate milliequivalent concentration of dietary sodium and potassium (NaK), and TMP were used as potential covariates to the models. A model having positive relationships of DMI, dietary dry matter (DM%), and CP (CP%) contents, NaK, and TMP explained 76% of variability in FWI treatment means of lactating cows. When challenged on an independent data set (n=261), the model more accurately predicted FWI [root mean square prediction error as a percentage of average observed value (RMSPE%)=14.4%] compared with a model developed without NaK and TMP (RMSPE%=17.3%), and all extant models (RMSPE%≥15.7%). A model without DMI included positive relationships of milk yield, DM%, NaK, TMP, and days in milk, and explained 63% of variability in the FWI treatment means and performed well (RMSPE%=17.9%), when challenged on the independent data. New models for dry cows included positive relationships of DM% and TMP along with DMI or body

Added value from 576 years of tree-ring records in the prediction of the Great Salt Lake level

Treesearch

Robert R. Gillies; Oi-Yu Chung; S.-Y. Simon Wang; R. Justin DeRose; Yan Sun

2015-01-01

Predicting lake level fluctuations of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah - the largest terminal salt-water lake in the Western Hemisphere - is critical from many perspectives. The GSL integrates both climate and hydrological variations within the region and is particularly sensitive to low-frequency climate cycles. Since most hydroclimate variable records cover...

Hydrological-niche models predict water plant functional group distributions in diverse wetland types.

PubMed

Deane, David C; Nicol, Jason M; Gehrig, Susan L; Harding, Claire; Aldridge, Kane T; Goodman, Abigail M; Brookes, Justin D

2017-06-01

Human use of water resources threatens environmental water supplies. If resource managers are to develop policies that avoid unacceptable ecological impacts, some means to predict ecosystem response to changes in water availability is necessary. This is difficult to achieve at spatial scales relevant for water resource management because of the high natural variability in ecosystem hydrology and ecology. Water plant functional groups classify species with similar hydrological niche preferences together, allowing a qualitative means to generalize community responses to changes in hydrology. We tested the potential for functional groups in making quantitative prediction of water plant functional group distributions across diverse wetland types over a large geographical extent. We sampled wetlands covering a broad range of hydrogeomorphic and salinity conditions in South Australia, collecting both hydrological and floristic data from 687 quadrats across 28 wetland hydrological gradients. We built hydrological-niche models for eight water plant functional groups using a range of candidate models combining different surface inundation metrics. We then tested the predictive performance of top-ranked individual and averaged models for each functional group. Cross validation showed that models achieved acceptable predictive performance, with correct classification rates in the range 0.68-0.95. Model predictions can be made at any spatial scale that hydrological data are available and could be implemented in a geographical information system. We show the response of water plant functional groups to inundation is consistent enough across diverse wetland types to quantify the probability of hydrological impacts over regional spatial scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Regional water table (2004) and water-level changes in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins, Southwestern Mojave Desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamos, Christina L.; Huff, Julia A.; Predmore, Steven K.; Clark, Dennis A.

2004-01-01

The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow systems, and consequently, water availability. During March and April 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made almost 900 water-level measurements in about 740 wells in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with historical data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from 500 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. In addition, 26 long-term (as much as 74 years) hydrographs were constructed which show water-level conditions throughout the basins, 9 short-term (1992 to 2004) hydrographs were constructed which show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River, and a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 2002 and 2004 water levels throughout the basins. The water-level change data show that in the Mojave River ground-water basin, more than one half (102) of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more and almost one fifth (32) of the wells had declines greater than 5 ft. between 2002 and 2004. The water-level change data also show that about one tenth (17) of the wells compared in the Mojave River ground-water basin had water level increases of 0.5 ft or more. Most of the water-level increases were the result of stormflow in the Mojave River during March 2004, which resulted in recharge to wells in the floodplain aquifer mainly along the river in the Alto subarea and the Transition zone, and along the

Prediction of mechanical property loss in polyamide during immersion in sea water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Gac, Pierre Yves; Arhant, Mael; Le Gall, Maelenn; Burtin, Christian; Davies, Peter

2016-05-01

It is well known that the water absorption in polyamide leads to a large reduction in the mechanical properties of the polymer, which is induced by the plasticization of the amorphous phase. However, predicting such a loss in a marine environment is not straightforward, especially when thick samples are considered. This study presents a modeling study of the water absorption in polyamide 6 based on the free volume theory. Using this modeling coupled with a description of the stress yield changes with Tg, it is possible to predict the long term behavior of thick samples when immersed in sea water. Reliability of the prediction is checked by a comparison with experimental results.

Coastal retreat and improved water quality mitigate losses of seagrass from sea level rise.

PubMed

Saunders, Megan I; Leon, Javier; Phinn, Stuart R; Callaghan, David P; O'Brien, Katherine R; Roelfsema, Chris M; Lovelock, Catherine E; Lyons, Mitchell B; Mumby, Peter J

2013-08-01

The distribution and abundance of seagrass ecosystems could change significantly over the coming century due to sea level rise (SLR). Coastal managers require mechanistic understanding of the processes affecting seagrass response to SLR to maximize their conservation and associated provision of ecosystem services. In Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, vast seagrass meadows supporting populations of sea turtles and dugongs are juxtaposed with the multiple stressors associated with a large and rapidly expanding human population. Here, the interactive effects of predicted SLR, changes in water clarity, and land use on future distributions of seagrass in Moreton Bay were quantified. A habitat distribution model of present day seagrass in relation to benthic irradiance and wave height was developed which correctly classified habitats in 83% of cases. Spatial predictions of seagrass and presence derived from the model and bathymetric data were used to initiate a SLR inundation model. Bathymetry was iteratively modified based on SLR and sedimentary accretion in seagrass to simulate potential seagrass habitat at 10 year time steps until 2100. The area of seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 under a scenario of SLR of 1.1 m. A scenario including the removal of impervious surfaces, such as roads and houses, from newly inundated regions, demonstrated that managed retreat of the shoreline could potentially reduce the overall decline in seagrass habitat to just 5%. The predicted reduction in area of seagrass habitat could be offset by an improvement in water clarity of 30%. Greater improvements in water clarity would be necessary for larger magnitudes of SLR. Management to improve water quality will provide present and future benefits to seagrasses under climate change and should be a priority for managers seeking to compensate for the effects of global change on these valuable habitats. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Water-quality and ground-water-level data, Bernalillo County, central New Mexico, 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rankin, D.R.

1996-01-01

Water-quality and ground-water-level data were collected in two areas of eastern Bernalillo County in central New Mexico between March and July of 1995. Fifty-one wells, two springs, and the Ojo Grande Acequia in the east mountain area of Bernalillo County and nine wells in the northeast area of the city of Albuquerque were sampled. The water samples were analyzed for selected nutrient species; total organic carbon; major dissolved constituents; dissolved arsenic, boron, iron, and manganese; and methylene blue active substances. Analytical results were used to compute hardness, sodium adsorption ratio, and dissolved solids. Specific conductance, pH, temperature, and alkalinity were measured in the field at the time of sample collection. Ground- water-level and well-depth measurements were made at the time of sample collection when possible. Water-quality data, ground- water-level data, and well-depth data are presented in tabular form.

APEX (Aqueous Photochemistry of Environmentally occurring Xenobiotics): a free software tool to predict the kinetics of photochemical processes in surface waters.

PubMed

Bodrato, Marco; Vione, Davide

2014-04-01

The APEX software predicts the photochemical transformation kinetics of xenobiotics in surface waters as a function of: photoreactivity parameters (direct photolysis quantum yield and second-order reaction rate constants with transient species, namely ˙OH, CO₃(-)˙, (1)O₂ and the triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter, (3)CDOM*), water chemistry (nitrate, nitrite, bicarbonate, carbonate, bromide and dissolved organic carbon, DOC), and water depth (more specifically, the optical path length of sunlight in water). It applies to well-mixed surface water layers, including the epilimnion of stratified lakes, and the output data are average values over the considered water column. Based on intermediate formation yields from the parent compound via the different photochemical pathways, the software can also predict intermediate formation kinetics and overall yield. APEX is based on a photochemical model that has been validated against available field data of pollutant phototransformation, with good agreement between model predictions and field results. The APEX software makes allowance for different levels of knowledge of a photochemical system. For instance, the absorption spectrum of surface water can be used if known, or otherwise it can be modelled from the values of DOC. Also the direct photolysis quantum yield can be entered as a detailed wavelength trend, as a single value (constant or average), or it can be defined as a variable if unknown. APEX is based on the free software Octave. Additional applications are provided within APEX to assess the σ-level uncertainty of the results and the seasonal trend of photochemical processes.

QSPR for predicting chloroform formation in drinking water disinfection.

PubMed

Luilo, G B; Cabaniss, S E

2011-01-01

Chlorination is the most widely used technique for water disinfection, but may lead to the formation of chloroform (trichloromethane; TCM) and other by-products. This article reports the first quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) for predicting the formation of TCM in chlorinated drinking water. Model compounds (n = 117) drawn from 10 literature sources were divided into training data (n = 90, analysed by five-way leave-many-out internal cross-validation) and external validation data (n = 27). QSPR internal cross-validation had Q² = 0.94 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.09 moles TCM per mole compound, consistent with external validation Q2 of 0.94 and RMSE of 0.08 moles TCM per mole compound, and met criteria for high predictive power and robustness. In contrast, log TCM QSPR performed poorly and did not meet the criteria for predictive power. The QSPR predictions were consistent with experimental values for TCM formation from tannic acid and for model fulvic acid structures. The descriptors used are consistent with a relatively small number of important TCM precursor structures based upon 1,3-dicarbonyls or 1,3-diphenols.

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, 2002-03

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, T.L.; Blumer, S.P.; Crowley, S.L.

2008-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into a continuing agreement to collect water-level altitudes (hereafter referred to as water levels) at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, USGS has operated four continuous water-level recorders, installed from 1988 to 1991 on wells in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant, and Lake Townships (fig. 1) and summarized the data collected in an annual or bi-annual report. The agreement was altered in 2003, and beginning January 1, 2004, only the wells in Fairhaven and Lake Townships will have continuous water-level recorders, while the wells in Grant and Bingham Townships will revert to quarterly measurement status. USGS has also provided training for County or Huron Conservation District personnel to measure the water level, on a quarterly basis, in 23 wells. USGS personnel regularly accompany County or Huron Conservation District personnel to provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made. Water-level data collected from the 23 quarterly-measured wells is also summarized in the annual or bi-annual report. In 1998, the USGS also completed a temporal and spatial analysis of the monitoring well network in Huron County (Holtschlag and Sweat, 1998).The altitude of Lake Huron and precipitation are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for groundwater levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the mean-monthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from measurements made by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at sites near Essexville and Harbor Beach, and monthly precipitation measured in Bad Axe (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA], 2002-04; Danny Costello, NOAA hydrologist, written commun., 2003-04). In March 2003, a new low-water level for the period of this study was measured in

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Response of Water Levels in Devils Hole, Death Valley National Park, Nevada, to Atmospheric Loading, Earth Tides, and Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutillo, P. A.; Ge, S.

2004-12-01

Devils Hole, home to the endangered Devils Hole pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis) in Death Valley National Park, Nevada, is one of about 30 springs and the largest collapse depression in the Ash Meadows area. The small pool leads to an extensive subterranean cavern within the regional Paleozoic carbonate-rock aquifer. Previous work has established that the pool level fluctuates in response to changes in barometric pressure, Earth tides and earthquakes. Analyses of these fluctuations indicate that the formation is a sensitive indicator of crustal strain, and provide important information regarding the material properties of the surrounding aquifer. Over ten years of hourly water-level measurements were analyzed for the effects of atmospheric loading and Earth tides. The short-term water-level fluctuations caused by these effects were found to be on the order of millimeters to centimeters, indicating relatively low matrix compressibility. Accordingly, the Devils Hole water-level record shows strong responses to the June 28, 1992 Landers/Little Skull Mountain earthquake sequence and to the October 16, 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. A dislocation model was used to calculate volumetric strain for each earthquake. The sensitivity of Devils Hole to strain induced by the solid Earth tide was used to constrain the modeling. Water-level decreases observed following the 1992 and 1999 earthquakes were found to be consistent with areas of crustal expansion predicted by the dislocation model. The magnitude of the water-level changes was also found to be proportional to the predicted coseismic volumetric strain. Post-seismic pore-pressure diffusion, governed by the hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer, was simulated with a numerical model using the coseismic change in pore pressure as an initial condition. Results of the numerical model indicate that factors such as fault-plane geometry and aquifer heterogeneity may play an important role in controlling pore pressure diffusion in the

Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model (TBWCM): As a Predictive Tool

EPA Science Inventory

The Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model was developed as a predictive tool for estimating the impact of changing nutrient loads on water clarity as measured by secchi depth. The model combines a physical mixing model with an irradiance model and nutrient cycling model. A 10 segment bi...

Predicting Anthropogenic Noise Contributions to US Waters.

PubMed

Gedamke, Jason; Ferguson, Megan; Harrison, Jolie; Hatch, Leila; Henderson, Laurel; Porter, Michael B; Southall, Brandon L; Van Parijs, Sofie

2016-01-01

To increase understanding of the potential effects of chronic underwater noise in US waters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) organized two working groups in 2011, collectively called "CetSound," to develop tools to map the density and distribution of cetaceans (CetMap) and predict the contribution of human activities to underwater noise (SoundMap). The SoundMap effort utilized data on density, distribution, acoustic signatures of dominant noise sources, and environmental descriptors to map estimated temporal, spatial, and spectral contributions to background noise. These predicted soundscapes are an initial step toward assessing chronic anthropogenic noise impacts on the ocean's varied acoustic habitats and the animals utilizing them.

Computational prediction of ionic liquid 1-octanol/water partition coefficients.

PubMed

Kamath, Ganesh; Bhatnagar, Navendu; Baker, Gary A; Baker, Sheila N; Potoff, Jeffrey J

2012-04-07

Wet 1-octanol/water partition coefficients (log K(ow)) predicted for imidazolium-based ionic liquids using adaptive bias force-molecular dynamics (ABF-MD) simulations lie in excellent agreement with experimental values. These encouraging results suggest prospects for this computational tool in the a priori prediction of log K(ow) values of ionic liquids broadly with possible screening implications as well (e.g., prediction of CO(2)-philic ionic liquids).

Development and evaluation of a water level proportional water sampler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, P.; Lange, A.; Doppler, T.

2013-12-01

We developed and adapted a new type of sampler for time-integrated, water level proportional water quality sampling (e.g. nutrients, contaminants and stable isotopes). Our samplers are designed for sampling small to mid-size streams based on the law of Hagen-Poiseuille, where a capillary (or a valve) limits the sampling aliquot by reducing the air flux out of a submersed plastic (HDPE) sampling container. They are good alternatives to battery-operated automated water samplers when working in remote areas, or at streams that are characterized by pronounced daily discharge variations such as glacier streams. We evaluated our samplers against standard automated water samplers (ISCO 2900 and ISCO 6712) during the snowmelt in the Black Forest and the Alps and tested them in remote glacial catchments in Iceland, Switzerland and Kyrgyzstan. The results clearly showed that our samplers are an adequate tool for time-integrated, water level proportional water sampling at remote test sites, as they do not need batteries, are relatively inexpensive, lightweight, and compact. They are well suited for headwater streams - especially when sampling for stable isotopes - as the sampled water is perfectly protected against evaporation. Moreover, our samplers have a reduced risk of icing in cold environments, as they are installed submersed in water, whereas automated samplers (typically installed outside the stream) may get clogged due to icing of hoses. Based on this study, we find these samplers to be an adequate replacement for automated samplers when time-integrated sampling or solute load estimates are the main monitoring tasks.

Status of Water Levels and Selected Water-Quality Conditions in the Sparta-Memphis Aquifer in Arkansas and the Status of Water Levels in the Sparta Aquifer in Louisiana, Spring 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schrader, T.P.; Jones, J.S.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, the Arkansas Geological Commission, and the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development has monitored water levels in the Sparta Sand of Claiborne Group and Memphis Sand of Claiborne Group since the 1920's. Ground-water withdrawals have increased while water levels have declined since monitoring was initiated. This report has been produced to describe ground-water levels in the aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand and provide information for the management of this valuable resource. The 2005 potentiometric-surface map of the aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand was constructed using water-level data collected in 333 wells in Arkansas and 120 wells in Louisiana during the spring of 2005. The highest water-level altitude measured in Arkansas was 327 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 located in Grant County in the outcrop at the western boundary of the study area; the lowest water-level altitude was 189 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in Union County. The highest water-level altitude measured in Louisiana was 246 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 located in Bossier Parish in the outcrop area near the western boundary of the study area; the lowest water-level altitude was 226 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in central Ouachita Parish. Three large depressions centered in Columbia, Jefferson, and Union Counties in Arkansas are the result of large withdrawals for industrial and public supplies. In Louisiana, three major pumping centers are in Ouachita, Jackson, and Lincoln Parishes. Water withdrawals from these major pumping centers primarily is used for industrial and public-supply purposes. Withdrawals from Ouachita and Lincoln Parishes and Union County, Arkansas, primarily for industrial purposes, have caused the resulting cones of depression to coalesce so that the -40 foot

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

2013-01-01

that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and

Application of empirical predictive modeling using conventional and alternative fecal indicator bacteria in eastern North Carolina waters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, Raul; Conn, Kathleen E.; Crosswell, Joey; Noble, Rachel

2012-01-01

Coastal and estuarine waters are the site of intense anthropogenic influence with concomitant use for recreation and seafood harvesting. Therefore, coastal and estuarine water quality has a direct impact on human health. In eastern North Carolina (NC) there are over 240 recreational and 1025 shellfish harvesting water quality monitoring sites that are regularly assessed. Because of the large number of sites, sampling frequency is often only on a weekly basis. This frequency, along with an 18–24 h incubation time for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) enumeration via culture-based methods, reduces the efficiency of the public notification process. In states like NC where beach monitoring resources are limited but historical data are plentiful, predictive models may offer an improvement for monitoring and notification by providing real-time FIB estimates. In this study, water samples were collected during 12 dry (n = 88) and 13 wet (n = 66) weather events at up to 10 sites. Statistical predictive models for Escherichiacoli (EC), enterococci (ENT), and members of the Bacteroidales group were created and subsequently validated. Our results showed that models for EC and ENT (adjusted R2 were 0.61 and 0.64, respectively) incorporated a range of antecedent rainfall, climate, and environmental variables. The most important variables for EC and ENT models were 5-day antecedent rainfall, dissolved oxygen, and salinity. These models successfully predicted FIB levels over a wide range of conditions with a 3% (EC model) and 9% (ENT model) overall error rate for recreational threshold values and a 0% (EC model) overall error rate for shellfish threshold values. Though modeling of members of the Bacteroidales group had less predictive ability (adjusted R2 were 0.56 and 0.53 for fecal Bacteroides spp. and human Bacteroides spp., respectively), the modeling approach and testing provided information on Bacteroidales ecology. This is the first example of a set of successful statistical

Models for predicting disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation in drinking waters: a chronological review.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-07-01

Disinfection for the supply of safe drinking water forms a variety of known and unknown byproducts through reactions between the disinfectants and natural organic matter. Chronic exposure to disinfection byproducts through the ingestion of drinking water, inhalation and dermal contact during regular indoor activities (e.g., showering, bathing, cooking) may pose cancer and non-cancer risks to human health. Since their discovery in drinking water in 1974, numerous studies have presented models to predict DBP formation in drinking water. To date, more than 48 scientific publications have reported 118 models to predict DBP formation in drinking waters. These models were developed through laboratory and field-scale experiments using raw, pretreated and synthetic waters. This paper aims to review DBP predictive models, analyze the model variables, assess the model advantages and limitations, and to determine their applicability to different water supply systems. The paper identifies the current challenges and future research needs to better control DBP formation. Finally, important directions for future research are recommended to protect human health and to follow the best management practices.

Simulated effects of pumping irrigation wells on ground-water levels in western Saginaw County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, Christopher J.; Westjohn, David B.

2001-01-01

Success of agriculture in many areas of Michigan relies on withdrawal of large quantities of ground water for irrigation. In some areas of the State, water-level declines associated with large ground-water withdrawals may adversely affect nearby residential wells. Residential wells in several areas of Saginaw County, in Michigan's east-central Lower Peninsula, recently went dry shortly after irrigation of crop lands commenced; many of these wells also went dry during last year's agricultural cycle (summer 2000). In September 2000, residential wells that had been dry returned to function after cessation of pumping from large-capacity irrigation wells. To evaluate possible effects of groundwater withdrawals from irrigation wells on residential wells, the U.S. Geological Survey used hydrogeologic data including aquifer tests, water-level records, geologic logs, and numerical models to determine whether water-level declines and the withdrawal of ground water for agricultural irrigation are related. Numerical simulations based on representative irrigation well pumping volumes and a 3-month irrigation period indicate water-level declines that range from 5.3 to 20 feet, 2.8 to 12 feet and 1.7 to 6.9 feet at distances of about 0.5, 1.5 and 3 miles from irrigation wells, respectively. Residential wells that are equipped with shallow jet pumps and that are within 0.5 miles of irrigation wells would likely experience reduced yield or loss of yield during peak periods of irrigation. The actual 1 extent that irrigation pumping cause reduced function of residential wells, however, cannot be fully predicted on the basis of the data analyzed because many _other factors may be adversely affecting the yield of residential wells.

Water hammer prediction and control: the Green's function method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuan, Li-Jun; Mao, Feng; Wu, Jie-Zhi

2012-04-01

By Green's function method we show that the water hammer (WH) can be analytically predicted for both laminar and turbulent flows (for the latter, with an eddy viscosity depending solely on the space coordinates), and thus its hazardous effect can be rationally controlled and minimized. To this end, we generalize a laminar water hammer equation of Wang et al. (J. Hydrodynamics, B2, 51, 1995) to include arbitrary initial condition and variable viscosity, and obtain its solution by Green's function method. The predicted characteristic WH behaviors by the solutions are in excellent agreement with both direct numerical simulation of the original governing equations and, by adjusting the eddy viscosity coefficient, experimentally measured turbulent flow data. Optimal WH control principle is thereby constructed and demonstrated.

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, 2006-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, T.L.; Blumer, S.P.; Fuller, L.M.

2008-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into a continuing agreement to measure water levels at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, USGS initially operated four continuous water-level recorders, installed from 1988 to 1991 on wells in Bingham (H5r), Fairhaven (H9r), Grant (H2r), and Lake Townships (H25Ar) and summarized the data collected in an annual or bi-annual report (fig. 1). The agreement was altered in 2003, and beginning January 1, 2004, only wells H9r and H25Ar retained continuous water-level recorders, while wells H2r and H5r reverted to quarterly or periodic measurement status due to budget constraints. The decision of which two wells to discontinue was based on an analysis of the intrinsic value to Huron County of data from each well. Well H2r was selected for periodic measurement at that time because it is completed in the glacial aquifer, which is absent in much of Huron County and well H5r, which is completed in the Marshall aquifer, was selected because the water level in the well is often perturbed as a result of pumpage from nearby production wells and does not always reflect baseline conditions within the aquifer. USGS also has provided training for County or Huron Conservation District personnel to measure the water level in 24 of the wells on a quarterly basis. USGS personnel accompany County or Huron Conservation District personnel on a semi-annual basis to provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made. Water-level data collected from the wells is summarized in an annual or bi-annual report. The altitude of Lake Huron and precipitation are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for groundwater levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the meanmonthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from

Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

1984-01-01

Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

Ground-water level data for North Carolina, 1988-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strickland, A.G.; Coble, R.W.; Edwards, L.A.; Pope, B.F.

1992-01-01

Continuous and periodic water-level measurements were made in 59 key wells throughout North Carolina. Additional measurements were made in 112 supplementary wells completed in Coastal Plain aquifers of the State. Changes in groundwater storage are shown in 3-year and 10-year hydrographs of selected wells in the State. The water table in the shallow aquifers was higher throughout most of 1989 and early 1990 than in 1988, indicating that these aquifers were sufficiently recharged by precipitation to replenish the late 1987-88 deficit in groundwater storage. Water levels in the heavily pumped Coastal Plain aquifers declined as a result of water being withdrawn from aquifer storage. Record low water levels were measured in 8 to 13 wells completed in the Castle Hayne aquifer and in 6 of 8 wells in the Peedee aquifer; the maximum annual declines during 1988-90 averaged 3.3 and 1.6 ft/yr, respectively, for these two aquifers. All wells in the Black Creek, upper Cape Fear, and lower Cape Fear aquifers had record low water levels during 1988-90, with maximum annual declines averaging 9.0, 2.2, and 2.6 ft/yr, respectively. Water levels in two of three wells in the Yorktown aquifer did not show a general downward trend during 1988-90, although water levels declined in the third well, reaching a record low in 1990. The effects of water withdrawals from major pumping centers in the North Carolina Coastal Plain are shown in potentiometric-surface maps of the Black Creek and lower Cape Fear aquifers.

Plasticity in leaf-level water relations of tropical rainforest trees in response to experimental drought.

PubMed

Binks, Oliver; Meir, Patrick; Rowland, Lucy; da Costa, Antonio Carlos Lola; Vasconcelos, Steel Silva; de Oliveira, Alex Antonio Ribeiro; Ferreira, Leandro; Christoffersen, Bradley; Nardini, Andrea; Mencuccini, Maurizio

2016-07-01

The tropics are predicted to become warmer and drier, and understanding the sensitivity of tree species to drought is important for characterizing the risk to forests of climate change. This study makes use of a long-term drought experiment in the Amazon rainforest to evaluate the role of leaf-level water relations, leaf anatomy and their plasticity in response to drought in six tree genera. The variables (osmotic potential at full turgor, turgor loss point, capacitance, elastic modulus, relative water content and saturated water content) were compared between seasons and between plots (control and through-fall exclusion) enabling a comparison between short- and long-term plasticity in traits. Leaf anatomical traits were correlated with water relation parameters to determine whether water relations differed among tissues. The key findings were: osmotic adjustment occurred in response to the long-term drought treatment; species resistant to drought stress showed less osmotic adjustment than drought-sensitive species; and water relation traits were correlated with tissue properties, especially the thickness of the abaxial epidermis and the spongy mesophyll. These findings demonstrate that cell-level water relation traits can acclimate to long-term water stress, and highlight the limitations of extrapolating the results of short-term studies to temporal scales associated with climate change. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Improving the local relevance of large scale water demand predictions: the way forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

2016-04-01

Securing adequate availability of fresh water is of vital importance for socio-economic development of present and future Europe. Due to strong heterogeneity in climate conditions, some regions receive an abundant supply of water, where other areas almost completely depend on limited river discharge from upstream catchments. Furthermore, water demand differs greatly between regions due to differences in population density and local presence of intensive water using industries and agriculture. This results in many situations all across Europe where competition between water users translates into relative scarcity and economic damage. Additionally it is expected that inter-related economic and demographic developments, as well as climate change are to only further increase the need for efficient management of our water resources in the future. Successful policy making for such complex problems requires a good understanding of the system and reliable forecasting of conditions. The extent and complexity of the water use system however, stands in high contrast with the poor state of available data and lack of reliable predictions for this multi-disciplinary topic. Although the matching of available water to its demand is a European-wide problem, the amount of data with pan-European coverage is limited and usually with a national resolution at best. This is hindering researchers and policy makers because it usually makes large scale water demand predictions little relevant due to the strong regional heterogenic nature of the problem. We present in our study a first attempt of European-wide water demand predictions based on consistent regional data and econometric methods for the household and industry sector. We gathered data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water

Extracting Maximum Total Water Levels from Video "Brightest" Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, J. A.; Holman, R. A.; Stockdon, H. F.; Plant, N. G.; Long, J.; Brodie, K.

2016-02-01

An important parameter for predicting storm-induced coastal change is the maximum total water level (TWL). Most studies estimate the TWL as the sum of slowly varying water levels, including tides and storm surge, and the extreme runup parameter R2%, which includes wave setup and swash motions over minutes to seconds. Typically, R2% is measured using video remote sensing data, where cross-shore timestacks of pixel intensity are digitized to extract the horizontal runup timeseries. However, this technique must be repeated at multiple alongshore locations to resolve alongshore variability, and can be tedious and time consuming. We seek an efficient, video-based approach that yields a synoptic estimate of TWL that accounts for alongshore variability and can be applied during storms. In this work, the use of a video product termed the "brightest" image is tested; this represents the highest intensity of each pixel captured during a 10-minute collection period. Image filtering and edge detection techniques are applied to automatically determine the shoreward edge of the brightest region (i.e., the swash zone) at each alongshore pixel. The edge represents the horizontal position of the maximum TWL along the beach during the collection period, and is converted to vertical elevations using measured beach topography. This technique is evaluated using video and topographic data collected every half-hour at Duck, NC, during differing hydrodynamic conditions. Relationships between the maximum TWL estimates from the brightest images and various runup statistics computed using concurrent runup timestacks are examined, and errors associated with mapping the horizontal results to elevations are discussed. This technique is invaluable, as it can be used to routinely estimate maximum TWLs along a coastline from a single brightest image product, and provides a means for examining alongshore variability of TWLs at high alongshore resolution. These advantages will be useful in

A statistical model for water quality predictions from a river discharge using coastal observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Terrill, E. J.

2007-12-01

Understanding and predicting coastal ocean water quality has benefits for reducing human health risks, protecting the environment, and improving local economies which depend on clean beaches. Continuous observations of coastal physical oceanography increase the understanding of the processes which control the fate and transport of a riverine plume which potentially contains high levels of contaminants from the upstream watershed. A data-driven model of the fate and transport of river plume water from the Tijuana River has been developed using surface current observations provided by a network of HF radar operated as part of a local coastal observatory that has been in place since 2002. The model outputs are compared with water quality sampling of shoreline indicator bacteria, and the skill of an alarm for low water quality is evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In addition, statistical analysis of beach closures in comparison with environmental variables is also discussed.

Links between type E botulism outbreaks, lake levels, and surface water temperatures in Lake Michigan, 1963-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska; Riley, Stephen C.; Blehert, David S.; Ballmann, Anne E.

2011-01-01

Relationships between large-scale environmental factors and the incidence of type E avian botulism outbreaks in Lake Michigan were examined from 1963 to 2008. Avian botulism outbreaks most frequently occurred in years with low mean annual water levels, and lake levels were significantly lower in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Mean surface water temperatures in northern Lake Michigan during the period when type E outbreaks tend to occur (July through September) were significantly higher in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Trends in fish populations did not strongly correlate with botulism outbreaks, although botulism outbreaks in the 1960s coincided with high alewife abundance, and recent botulism outbreaks coincided with rapidly increasing round goby abundance. Botulism outbreaks occurred cyclically, and the frequency of outbreaks did not increase over the period of record. Climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes predict lower water levels and warmer water temperatures. As a consequence, the frequency and magnitude of type E botulism outbreaks in the Great Lakes may increase.

Evaluation of water-level recovery, 1996-97 to 1999-2000, and comparison of 1999-2000 and 1972-73 water levels in Goleta Central Subbasin, Santa Barbara County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Densmore, Jill N.; Scrudato, Matthew C.; Houston, Ernest R.

2001-01-01

Ground-water levels were measured during January 1999-June 2000 to evaluate the rate of water-level recovery in the Goleta Central ground-water subbasin that has resulted from injection of about 2,225 acre-feet of surplus water for storage in the ground-water basin. Injection of surplus water was tabulated and compared with water-level rises since 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness of the recharge effort. Water levels have risen about 4 to 37 feet since 1996-97. A preliminary water budget was compiled to assess recharge and discharge in the basin, and it is estimated that total inflow exceeded total outflow during 1998-99 by about 2,844 to 7,518 acre-feet. In addition, water levels for 1999-2000 were compared with water levels for 1972-73 to determine if a 'drought buffer' exists. Water levels measured in two wells during January 1999-June 2000 exceeded January 1972-June 1973 levels. Water levels in the remaining wells measured during January 1999-June 2000 ranged from less than 1 foot to about 32 feet below 1972-73 water levels. In general, the largest water-level rise between 1996-97 and 1999-2000 was about 37 feet in the southeastern end of the basin; the rise was less than 4 feet in the western end of the basin and about 10 feet north of the Goleta Fault. Long-term hydrographs indicate that water levels have been recovering throughout the basin since the early 1990's.

Model Predictive Control-based Power take-off Control of an Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Conversion System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajapakse, G.; Jayasinghe, S. G.; Fleming, A.; Shahnia, F.

2017-07-01

Australia’s extended coastline asserts abundance of wave and tidal power. The predictability of these energy sources and their proximity to cities and towns make them more desirable. Several tidal current turbine and ocean wave energy conversion projects have already been planned in the coastline of southern Australia. Some of these projects use air turbine technology with air driven turbines to harvest the energy from an oscillating water column. This study focuses on the power take-off control of a single stage unidirectional oscillating water column air turbine generator system, and proposes a model predictive control-based speed controller for the generator-turbine assembly. The proposed method is verified with simulation results that show the efficacy of the controller in extracting power from the turbine while maintaining the speed at the desired level.

Quantification of umu genotoxicity level of urban river water.

PubMed

Kameya, T; Nagato, T; Nakagawa, K; Yamashita, D; Kobayashi, T; Fujie, K

2011-01-01

In recent years, the request of environmental safety management for carcinogenic substances, mutagenic substances and/or reproductive toxicity substances (CMR) has increased. This study focused on clarifying the genotoxicity level of environmental water and its release source by using the umu test provided in ISO13829. Although a genotoxicity index "induction ratio (IR)" is used in ISO13829, we normalised it to make it possible to compare various environmental water quantitatively to each other as a new index "genotoxic activity (GA=(IR-1)/Dose)". Sample water was collected and concentrated to 100 times or 1,000 times by a solid phase extraction method. As the test results, it was found that GA level in actual river water varied widely from less than the determination limit of 23 [1/L] to 1,100 [1/L] by quantitative comparison, and the value was also equivalent to more than 50 times the level of tap water. The GA level of household wastewater was not so high, but the levels of treated water from wastewater treatment plant (WTP) were from 220 [1/L] to 3,200 [1/L]. Raw sewage of some WTP shows high level genotoxicity. A part of genotoxicity substances, for example 50%, could be removed by conventional wastewater treatment, but it was not enough to reduce the water environmental load of genotoxicity.

Generalized water-level contours, September-October 2000 and March-April 2001, and long-term water-level changes, at the U.S. Air Force Plant 42 and vicinity, Palmdale, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, Allen H.

2005-01-01

Historically, the U.S. Air Force Plant 42 has relied on ground water as the primary source of water owing, in large part, to the scarcity of surface water in the region. Groundwater withdrawal for municipal, industrial, and agricultural use has affected ground-water levels at U.S. Air Force Plant 42, and vicinity. A study to document changes in groundwater gradients and to present historical water-level data was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force. This report presents historical water-level data, hydrographs, and generalized seasonal water-level and water-level contours for September?October 2000 and March?April 2001. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow systems, and consequently water availability. During September?October 2000 and March?April 2001 the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made a total of 102 water-level measurements, 46 during September?October 2000 and 56 during March?April 2001. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with historical data, document changes in ground-water levels. Two water-level contour maps were drawn: the first depicts water-level conditions for September?October 2000 map and the second depicts water-level conditions for March?April 2001 map. In general, the water-level contour maps show water-level depressions formed as result of ground-water withdrawal. One hundred sixteen long-term hydrographs, using water-level data from 1915 through 2000, were constructed to show water-level trends in the area. The hydrographs indicate that water-level decline occurred throughout the study area, with the greatest declines south of U.S. Air Force Plant 42.

Subsidence at the Fairport Harbor Water Level Gauge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conner, D. A.

2014-12-01

SUBSIDENCE AT THE FAIRPORT HARBOR WATER LEVEL GAUGE I will provide information on methods being used to monitor Lake Erie water levels and earth movement at Fairport Harbor, Ohio. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is responsible for vertical movement throughout the Great Lakes region. Fairport Harbor is also experiencing vertical movement due to salt mining, so the nearby water level gauge operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is affected by both GIA and mining. NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (NGS) defines and maintains the National Spatial Reference System (NSRS). The NSRS includes a network of permanently marked points; a consistent, accurate, and up-to-date national shoreline; a network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) which supports three-dimensional positioning activities; and a set of accurate models describing dynamic, geophysical processes that affect spatial measurements. The NSRS provides the spatial reference foundation for transportation, mapping, charting and a multitude of scientific and engineering applications. Fundamental elements of geodetic infrastructure include GPS CORS (3-D), water level and tide gauges (height) and a system of vertical bench marks (height). When two or more of these elements converge they may provide an independent determination of position and vertical stability as is the case here at the Fairport Harbor water level gauge. Analysis of GPS, leveling and water level data reveal that this gauge is subsiding at about 2-3 mm/year, independent of the effects of GIA. Analysis of data from the nearby OHLA GPS CORS shows it subsiding at about 4 mm/yr, four times faster than expected due to GIA alone. A long history of salt mine activity in the area is known to geologists but it came as a surprise to other scientists.

Ground-Water Levels in Huron County, Michigan, 2004-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, T.L.; Crowley, S.L.; Blumer, S.P.

2006-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into a continuing agreement to measure water levels at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, USGS has operated four continuous water-level recorders, installed from 1988 to 1991 on wells in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant, and Lake Townships (fig. 1) and summarized the data collected in an annual or bi-annual report. The agreement was altered in 2003, and beginning January 1, 2004, only the wells in Fairhaven and Lake Townships retained continuous waterlevel recorders, while the wells in Grant and Bingham Townships reverted primarily to periodic or quarterly measurement status. USGS also has provided training for County or Huron Conservation District personnel to measure the water level, on a quarterly basis, in 25 wells. USGS personnel regularly accompany County or Huron Conservation District personnel to provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made. Water-level data collected from the 25 periodically or quarterly-measured wells is summarized in an annual or bi-annual report. In 1998, the USGS also completed a temporal and spatial analysis of the monitoring well network in Huron County (Holtschlag and Sweat, 1998).The altitude of Lake Huron and precipitation are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for ground-water levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the mean-monthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from measurements made by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at sites near Essexville or Harbor Beach, or both (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2003-05), and monthly precipitation measured in Bad Axe (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2003-05). In March 2003, a new low-water level for the period from 1991 through 2005 was measured in Lake Huron

Habitat Selection by African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Response to Landscape-Level Fluctuations in Water Availability on Two Temporal Scales

PubMed Central

Bennitt, Emily; Bonyongo, Mpaphi Casper; Harris, Stephen

2014-01-01

Seasonal fluctuations in water availability cause predictable changes in the profitability of habitats in tropical ecosystems, and animals evolve adaptive behavioural and spatial responses to these fluctuations. However, stochastic changes in the distribution and abundance of surface water between years can alter resource availability at a landscape scale, causing shifts in animal behaviour. In the Okavango Delta, Botswana, a flood-pulsed ecosystem, the volume of water entering the system doubled between 2008 and 2009, creating a sudden change in the landscape. We used African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) to test the hypotheses that seasonal habitat selection would be related to water availability, that increased floodwater levels would decrease forage abundance and affect habitat selection, and that this would decrease buffalo resting time, reduce reproductive success and decrease body condition. Buffalo selected contrasting seasonal habitats, using habitats far from permanent water during the rainy season and seasonally-flooded habitats close to permanent water during the early and late flood seasons. The 2009 water increase reduced forage availability in seasonally-flooded habitats, removing a resource buffer used by the buffalo during the late flood season, when resources were most limited. In response, buffalo used drier habitats in 2009, although there was no significant change in the time spent moving or resting, or daily distance moved. While their reproductive success decreased in 2009, body condition increased. A protracted period of high water levels could prove detrimental to herbivores, especially to smaller-bodied species that require high quality forage. Stochastic annual fluctuations in water levels, predicted to increase as a result of anthropogenically-induced climate change, are likely to have substantial impacts on the functioning of water-driven tropical ecosystems, affecting environmental conditions within protected areas. Buffer zones around

Habitat selection by African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in response to landscape-level fluctuations in water availability on two temporal scales.

PubMed

Bennitt, Emily; Bonyongo, Mpaphi Casper; Harris, Stephen

2014-01-01

Seasonal fluctuations in water availability cause predictable changes in the profitability of habitats in tropical ecosystems, and animals evolve adaptive behavioural and spatial responses to these fluctuations. However, stochastic changes in the distribution and abundance of surface water between years can alter resource availability at a landscape scale, causing shifts in animal behaviour. In the Okavango Delta, Botswana, a flood-pulsed ecosystem, the volume of water entering the system doubled between 2008 and 2009, creating a sudden change in the landscape. We used African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) to test the hypotheses that seasonal habitat selection would be related to water availability, that increased floodwater levels would decrease forage abundance and affect habitat selection, and that this would decrease buffalo resting time, reduce reproductive success and decrease body condition. Buffalo selected contrasting seasonal habitats, using habitats far from permanent water during the rainy season and seasonally-flooded habitats close to permanent water during the early and late flood seasons. The 2009 water increase reduced forage availability in seasonally-flooded habitats, removing a resource buffer used by the buffalo during the late flood season, when resources were most limited. In response, buffalo used drier habitats in 2009, although there was no significant change in the time spent moving or resting, or daily distance moved. While their reproductive success decreased in 2009, body condition increased. A protracted period of high water levels could prove detrimental to herbivores, especially to smaller-bodied species that require high quality forage. Stochastic annual fluctuations in water levels, predicted to increase as a result of anthropogenically-induced climate change, are likely to have substantial impacts on the functioning of water-driven tropical ecosystems, affecting environmental conditions within protected areas. Buffer zones around

Predicting water suppy and actual evapotranspiration of street trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessolek, Gerd; Heiner, Moreen; Trinks, Steffen

2017-04-01

It's well known that street trees cool air temperature in summer-time by transpiration and shading and also reduce runoff. However, it's difficult to analyse if trees have water shortage or not. This contribution focus on predicting water supply, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff by using easily available climate data (precipiation, potential evapotranspiration) and site characteristics (water retention, space, sealing degree, groundwater depth). These parameter were used as input data for Hydro-Pedotransfer-Functions (HPTFs) allowing the estimation of the annual water budget. Results give statements on water supply of trees, drought stress, and additional water demand by irrigation. Procedure also analyse, to which extent the surrounding partly sealed surfaces deliver water to the trees. Four representative street canyons of Berlin City were analysed and evaluated within in training program for M.A. students of „Urban Eco-system Science" at the Technische Universität Berlin.

Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1976 through 1985

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, H.I.; Oberender, C.B.

1987-01-01

Groundwater levels are measured periodically in a network of 84 observation wells in Wyoming, mostly in areas where groundwater is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. The program is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and the Wyoming Economic Development and Stabilization Board. This report contains hydrographs for 84 observation wells showing water-level fluctuations from 1976 through 1985. Also included in the report are maps showing locations of observation wells and tables listing well depths, use of water, geologic source, records available, and highest and lowest water levels for the period of record. (USGS)

Regional water table (2000) and ground-water-level changes in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins, southwestern Mojave Desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Gregory A.

2003-01-01

The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water systems, and consequently, water availability. During 2000, the U. S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with previous data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from about 500 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. Twenty-nine hydrographs show long-term (up to 70 years) water-level conditions throughout the basins, and 13 short-term (1996 to 2000) hydrographs show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River. In addition, a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 1998 and 2000 water-levels throughout the basins. In the Mojave River ground-water basins, water-level data showed little change from 1998 to 2000, with the exception of areas along the Mojave River. Water levels along the Mojave River were typically in decline or unchanged, with exceptions near the Hodge and the Lenwood outlet, where water levels rose in response to artificial recharge. The Morongo ground-water basin had virtually no change in water levels from 1998 to 2000, with the exception of Yucca Valley, where artificial recharge and ground-water withdrawal continues.

The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2014-05-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and

Association of blood pressure and metabolic syndrome components with magnesium levels in drinking water in some Serbian municipalities.

PubMed

Rasic-Milutinovic, Zorica; Perunicic-Pekovic, Gordana; Jovanovic, Dragana; Gluvic, Zoran; Cankovic-Kadijevic, Milce

2012-03-01

Chronic exposure to insufficient levels of magnesium (Mg) in drinking water increases the risk of magnesium deficiency and its association with hypertension, dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The aim of the study was to assess the potential association of mineral contents in drinking water with blood pressure and other components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (BMI as measure of obesity, triglycerides, glucose, and insulin resistance, index-HOMA IR), in a healthy population. This study was conducted in three randomly selected municipalities (Pozarevac, Grocka and Banovci), and recruited 90 healthy blood donors, aged 20-50 years. The Pozarevac area had a four times higher mean Mg level in drinking water (42 mg L(-1)) than Grocka (11 mg L(-1)). Diastolic blood pressure was lowest in subjects from Pozarevac. Serum Mg (sMg) was highest, and serum Ca(2+)/Mg (sCa/Mg) lowest in subjects from Pozarevac, and after adjustment for confounders (age, gender, BMI), only total cholesterol and sMg levels were independent predictors of diastolic blood pressure, sMg levels were independent predictors of triglycerides, and sCa/Mg predicted glucose levels. These results suggest that Mg supplementation in areas of lower magnesium levels in drinking water may be an important measure in the prevention of hypertension and MetS in general.

Ground-water levels in Wyoming, January 1986 through September 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, J.P.; Green, S.L.

1996-01-01

Water levels were measured in a network of 81 observation wells in Wyoming as of September 1995. The wells are located mainly in areas where ground water is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. Water-level data were collected at 74 of the 81 observation wells by Wyoming State Engineer personnel; data at theremaining 7 wells were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. This report contains hydrographs for 81 observation wells showing water-level fluctuations from January 1986 through September 1995. Included in the report are maps showing location of the observation wells and tableslisting observation-well depths, use of water, principal geologic source, records available, and highest and lowest water levels for the period ofrecord.

Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption.

PubMed

Wu, Hua'an; Zeng, Bo; Zhou, Meng

2017-11-15

High accuracy in water demand predictions is an important basis for the rational allocation of city water resources and forms the basis for sustainable urban development. The shortage of water resources in Chongqing, the youngest central municipality in Southwest China, has significantly increased with the population growth and rapid economic development. In this paper, a new grey water-forecasting model (GWFM) was built based on the data characteristics of water consumption. The parameter estimation and error checking methods of the GWFM model were investigated. Then, the GWFM model was employed to simulate the water demands of Chongqing from 2009 to 2015 and forecast it in 2016. The simulation and prediction errors of the GWFM model was checked, and the results show the GWFM model exhibits better simulation and prediction precisions than those of the classical Grey Model with one variable and single order equation GM(1,1) for short and the frequently-used Discrete Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, DGM(1,1) for short. Finally, the water demand in Chongqing from 2017 to 2022 was forecasted, and some corresponding control measures and recommendations were provided based on the prediction results to ensure a viable water supply and promote the sustainable development of the Chongqing economy.

Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption

PubMed Central

Wu, Hua’an; Zhou, Meng

2017-01-01

High accuracy in water demand predictions is an important basis for the rational allocation of city water resources and forms the basis for sustainable urban development. The shortage of water resources in Chongqing, the youngest central municipality in Southwest China, has significantly increased with the population growth and rapid economic development. In this paper, a new grey water-forecasting model (GWFM) was built based on the data characteristics of water consumption. The parameter estimation and error checking methods of the GWFM model were investigated. Then, the GWFM model was employed to simulate the water demands of Chongqing from 2009 to 2015 and forecast it in 2016. The simulation and prediction errors of the GWFM model was checked, and the results show the GWFM model exhibits better simulation and prediction precisions than those of the classical Grey Model with one variable and single order equation GM(1,1) for short and the frequently-used Discrete Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, DGM(1,1) for short. Finally, the water demand in Chongqing from 2017 to 2022 was forecasted, and some corresponding control measures and recommendations were provided based on the prediction results to ensure a viable water supply and promote the sustainable development of the Chongqing economy. PMID:29140266

Experimental and predicted cavitation performance of an 80.6 deg helical inducer in high temperature water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kovich, G.

1972-01-01

The cavitating performance of a stainless steel 80.6 degree flat-plate helical inducer was investigated in water over a range of liquid temperatures and flow coefficients. A semi-empirical prediction method was used to compare predicted values of required net positive suction head in water with experimental values obtained in water. Good agreement was obtained between predicted and experimental data in water. The required net positive suction head in water decreased with increasing temperature and increased with flow coefficient, similar to that observed for a like inducer in liquid hydrogen.

Evaluating changes to reservoir rule curves using historical water-level data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

2013-01-01

Flood control reservoirs are typically managed through rule curves (i.e. target water levels) which control the storage and release timing of flood waters. Changes to rule curves are often contemplated and requested by various user groups and management agencies with no information available about the actual flood risk of such requests. Methods of estimating flood risk in reservoirs are not easily available to those unfamiliar with hydrological models that track water movement through a river basin. We developed a quantile regression model that uses readily available daily water-level data to estimate risk of spilling. Our model provided a relatively simple process for estimating the maximum applicable water level under a specific flood risk for any day of the year. This water level represents an upper-limit umbrella under which water levels can be operated in a variety of ways. Our model allows the visualization of water-level management under a user-specified flood risk and provides a framework for incorporating the effect of a changing environment on water-level management in reservoirs, but is not designed to replace existing hydrological models. The model can improve communication and collaboration among agencies responsible for managing natural resources dependent on reservoir water levels.

The risk of cancer as a result of elevated levels of nitrate in drinking water and vegetables in Central India.

PubMed

Taneja, Pinky; Labhasetwar, Pawan; Nagarnaik, Pranav; Ensink, Jeroen H J

2017-08-01

The objective of the present study was to determine the effect of nitrates on the incidence of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer development. Nitrate converted to nitrite under reducing conditions of gut results in the formation of N-nitrosamines which are linked to an increased gastric cancer risk. A population of 234 individuals with 78 cases of GI cancer and 156 controls residing at urban and rural settings in Nagpur and Bhandara districts of India were studied for 2 years using a case-control study. A detailed survey of 16 predictor variables using Formhub software was carried out. Nitrate concentrations in vegetables and primary drinking water supplies were measured. The logistic regression model showed that nitrate was statistically significant in predicting increasing risk of cancer when potential confounders were kept at base level (P value of 0.001 nitrate in drinking water; 0.003 for nitrate in vegetable) at P < 0.01. Exposure to nitrate in drinking water at >45 mg/L level of nitrate was associated with a higher risk of GI cancers. Analysis suggests that nitrate concentration in drinking water was found statistically significant in predicting cancer risk with an odds ratio of 1.20.

Reading Ground Water Levels with a Smartphone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Overloop, Peter-Jules

2015-04-01

Most ground water levels in the world are measured manually. It requires employees of water management organizations to visit sites in the field and execute a measurement procedure that requires special tools and training. Once the measurement is done, the value is jotted down in a notebook and later, at the office, entered in a computer system. This procedure is slow and prone to human errors. A new development is the introduction of modern Information and Communication Technology to support this task and make it more efficient. Two innovations are introduced to measure and immediately store ground water levels. The first method is a measuring tape that gives a sound and light when it just touches the water in combination with an app on a smartphone with which a picture needs to be taken from the measuring tape. Using dedicated pattern recognition algorithms, the depth is read on the tape and it is verified if the light is on. The second method estimates the depth using a sound from the smartphone that is sent into the borehole and records the reflecting waves in the pipe. Both methods use gps-localization of the smartphone to store the depths in the right location in the central database, making the monitoring of ground water levels a real-time process that eliminates human errors.

Water level observations in mangrove swamps during two hurricanes in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krauss, K.W.; Doyle, T.W.; Doyle, T.J.; Swarzenski, C.M.; From, A.S.; Day, Richard H.; Conner, W.H.

2009-01-01

Little is known about the effectiveness of mangroves in suppressing water level heights during landfall of tropical storms and hurricanes. Recent hurricane strikes along the Gulf Coast of the United States have impacted wetland integrity in some areas and hastened the need to understand how and to what degree coastal forested wetlands confer protection by reducing the height of peak water level. In recent years, U.S. Geological Survey Gulf Coast research projects in Florida have instrumented mangrove sites with continuous water level recorders. Our ad hoc network of water level recorders documented the rise, peak, and fall of water levels (?? 0.5 hr) from two hurricane events in 2004 and 2005. Reduction of peak water level heights from relatively in-line gages associated with one storm surge event indicated that mangrove wetlands can reduce water level height by as much as 9.4 cm/km inland over intact, relatively unchannelized expanses. During the other event, reductions were slightly less for mangroves along a river corridor. Estimates of water level attenuation were within the range reported in the literature but erred on the conservative side. These synoptic data from single storm events indicate that intact mangroves may support a protective role in reducing maximum water level height associated with surge.

The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Sheng; Chi, Kun; Zhang, Qiyi; Zhang, Xiangdong

2012-03-01

Compared with traditional real-time forecasting, this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area. The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model. The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values, and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information. The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps: 1) establish the GM (1, 1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2, and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy. The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin, China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps. Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence. Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data. The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary. The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable. The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

Can venous ProBNP levels predict placenta accreta?

PubMed

Ersoy, Ali Ozgur; Oztas, Efser; Ozler, Sibel; Ersoy, Ebru; Erkenekli, Kudret; Uygur, Dilek; Caglar, Ali Turhan; Danisman, Nuri

2016-12-01

Placenta previa (PP) is a potential life-threatening pregnancy complication. Pro-brain natriuretic peptide (ProBNP), creatine kinase (CK), cardiac form of CK (CK-MB) and Troponin I are circulatory biomarkers related to cardiac functions. We aimed to determine whether these biomarkers are related to PP and placenta accreta. In this case-control study, fifty-four pregnant women who attended our tertiary care center for perinatology with the diagnosis of PP totalis, and of them, 14 patients with placenta accreta were recruited as the study groups. Forty-six uncomplicated control patients who were matched for age, BMI were also included. Maternal venous ProBNP, CK, CK-MB and Troponin I levels were compared between the three groups. Obstetric history characteristics were comparable among groups, generally. CK and CK-MB levels were similar among three groups. Troponin I levels in the previa and accreta groups were significantly higher than the controls. ProBNP levels in the accreta group were significantly higher than other two groups. The multivariate regression model revealed that ProBNP could predict placental adhesion anomalies. Troponin I and ProBNP levels in PP cases were higher than controls and ProBNP could predict placenta accreta.

Movements of florida apple snails in relation to water levels and drying events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darby, P.C.; Bennetts, R.E.; Miller, S.J.; Percival, H.F.

2002-01-01

Florida apple snails (Pomacea Paludosa) apparently have only a limited tolerance to wetland drying events (although little direct evidence exists), but their populations routinely face dry downs under natural and managed water regimes. In this paper, we address speculation that apple snails respond to decreasing water levels and potential drying events by moving toward refugia that remain inundated. We monitored the movements of apple snails in central Florida, USA during drying events at the Blue Cypress Marsh (BC) and at Lake Kissimmee (LK). We monitored the weekly movements of 47 BC snails and 31 LK snails using radio-telemetry. Snails tended to stop moving when water depths were 10 cm. Snails moved along the greatest positive depth gradient (i.e., towards deeper water) when they encountered water depths between 10 and 20 cm. Snails tended to move toward shallower water in water depths ???50 cm, suggesting that snails were avoiding deep water areas such as canals and sloughs. Of the 11 BC snails originally located in the area that eventually went dry, three (27%) were found in deep water refugia by the end of the study. Only one of the 31 LK snails escaped the drying event by moving to deeper water. Our results indicate that some snails may opportunistically escape drying events through movement. The tendency to move toward deeper water was statistically significant and indicates that this behavioral trait might enhance survival when the spatial extent of a dry down is limited. However, as water level falls below 10 cm, snails stop moving and become stranded. As the spatial extent of a dry down increases, we predict that the number of snails stranded would increase proportionally. Stranded Pomacea paludosa must contend with dry marsh conditions, possibly by aestivation. Little more than anecdotal information has been published on P. paludosa aestivation, but it is a common adaptation among other apple snails (Caenogastropoda: Ampullaridae). ?? 2002, The Society

Voyageurs National Park: Water-level regulation and effects on water quality and aquatic biology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, Victoria G.; Maki, Ryan P.; LeDuc, Jaime F.

2018-01-01

Following dam installations in the remote Rainy Lake Basin during the early 1900s, water-level fluctuations were considered extreme (1914–1949) compared to more natural conditions. In 1949, the International Joint Commission (IJC), which sets rules governing dam operation on waters shared by the United States and Canada, established the first rule curves to regulate water levels on these waterbodies. However, rule curves established prior to 2000 were determined to be detrimental to the ecosystem. Therefore, the IJC implemented an order in 2000 to change rule curves and to restore a more natural water regime. After 2000, measured chlorophyll-a concentrations in the two most eutrophic water bodies decreased whereas concentrations in oligotrophic lakes did not show significant water-quality differences. Fish mercury data were inconclusive, due to the variation in water levels and fish mercury concentrations, but can be used by the IJC as part of a long term data set.

Application of statistical classification methods for predicting the acceptability of well-water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cameron, Enrico; Pilla, Giorgio; Stella, Fabio A.

2018-06-01

The application of statistical classification methods is investigated—in comparison also to spatial interpolation methods—for predicting the acceptability of well-water quality in a situation where an effective quantitative model of the hydrogeological system under consideration cannot be developed. In the example area in northern Italy, in particular, the aquifer is locally affected by saline water and the concentration of chloride is the main indicator of both saltwater occurrence and groundwater quality. The goal is to predict if the chloride concentration in a water well will exceed the allowable concentration so that the water is unfit for the intended use. A statistical classification algorithm achieved the best predictive performances and the results of the study show that statistical classification methods provide further tools for dealing with groundwater quality problems concerning hydrogeological systems that are too difficult to describe analytically or to simulate effectively.

Regional Water Table (1998) and Ground-Water-Level Changes in the Mojave River, and the Morongo Ground-Water Basins, San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Gregory A.; Pimentel, M. Isabel

2000-01-01

The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The rapid and continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The continuing collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water systems and, consequently, water availability. During 1998 the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,370 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from 450 wells, providing coverage for most of both basins. Twenty-three hydrographs show long-term (as much as 70 years) water-level trends throughout the basins. To help show effects of late seasonal recharge along the Mojave River, 14 short-term (13 years) hydrographs were created. A water-level change map was compiled to enable comparison of 1996 and 1998 water levels. The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins had little change in water levels between 1996 and 1998 - with the exception of the areas of the Yucca Valley affected by artificial recharge. Other water-level changes were localized and reflected pumping or measurements made before seasonal recharge. Three areas of perched ground water were identified: El Mirage Lake (dry), Adelanto, and Lucerne Valley.

Diffuse radiation increases global ecosystem-level water-use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffat, A. M.; Reichstein, M.; Cescatti, A.; Knohl, A.; Zaehle, S.

2012-12-01

Current environmental changes lead not only to rising atmospheric CO2 levels and air temperature but also to changes in air pollution and thus the light quality of the solar radiation reaching the land-surface. While rising CO2 levels are thought to enhance photosynthesis and closure of stomata, thus leading to relative water savings, the effect of diffuse radiation on transpiration by plants is less clear. It has been speculated that the stimulation of photosynthesis by increased levels of diffuse light may be counteracted by higher transpiration and consequently water depletion and drought stress. Ultimately, in water co-limited systems, the overall effect of diffuse radiation will depend on the sensitivity of canopy transpiration versus photosynthesis to diffuse light, i.e. whether water-use efficiency changes with relative levels of diffuse light. Our study shows that water-use efficiency increases significantly with higher fractions of diffuse light. It uses the ecosystem-atmosphere gas-exchange observations obtained with the eddy covariance method at 29 flux tower sites. In contrast to previous global studies, the analysis is based directly on measurements of diffuse radiation. Its effect on water-use efficiency was derived by analyzing the multivariate response of carbon and water fluxes to radiation and air humidity using a purely empirical approach based on artificial neural networks. We infer that per unit change of diffuse fraction the water-use efficiency increases up to 40% depending on diffuse fraction levels and ecosystem type. Hence, in regions with increasing diffuse radiation positive effects on primary production are expected even under conditions where water is co-limiting productivity.

Using hyperspectral imagery to predict post-wildfire soil water repellency

Treesearch

Sarah A. Lewis; Peter R. Robichaud; Bruce E. Frazier; Joan Q. Wu; Denise Y. M. Laes

2008-01-01

A principal task of evaluating large wildfires is to assess fire's effect on the soil in order to predict the potential watershed response. Two types of soil water repellency tests, the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and the mini-disk infiltrometer (MDI) test, were performed after the Hayman Fire in Colorado, in the summer of 2002 to assess the...

Water level, specific conductance, and water temperature data, San Francisco Bay, California, for Water Year 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buchanan, P.A.

2002-01-01

Time series of water-level, specific-conductance, and watertemperature data were collected at seven sites in San Francisco Bay during water year 2000 (October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000). Water-level data were recorded only at Point San Pablo. Specific-conductance and water-temperature data were recorded at 15-minute intervals at the following locations (Figure 1): • Carquinez Strait at Carquinez Bridge • Napa River at Mare Island Causeway near Vallejo • San Pablo Bay at Petaluma River Channel Marker 9 • San Pablo Strait at Point San Pablo • Central San Francisco Bay at Presidio Military Reservation • Central San Francisco Bay at Pier 24 • South San Francisco Bay at San Mateo Bridge near Foster City.

Predicting water filter and bottled water use in Appalachia: a community-scale case study.

PubMed

Levêque, Jonas G; Burns, Robert C

2017-06-01

A questionnaire survey was conducted in order to assess residents' perceptions of water quality for drinking and recreational purposes in a mid-sized city in northcentral West Virginia. Two logistic regression analyses were conducted in order to investigate the factors that influence bottle use and filter use. Results show that 37% of respondents primarily use bottled water and that 58% use a household filter when drinking from the tap. Respondents with lower levels of environmental concern, education levels, and lower organoleptic perceptions were most likely to perceive health risks from tap water consumption, and were most likely to use bottled water. Income, age, and organoleptic perceptions were predictors of water filter use among respondents. Clean water for recreational purposes was not found to be significant with either of these models. Our results demonstrate that bottle use and filter use are explained differently. We argue that more education and better communication about local tap water quality would decrease the use of bottled water. We demonstrate that household filters could be used as an alternative to bottled water.

Levels of exposure from drinking water.

PubMed

van Dijk-Looijaard, A M; van Genderen, J

2000-01-01

The relative exposure from drinking water is generally small, although there is a lack of information on total daily intake of individual organic micropollutants. There are, however, a few exceptions. Materials used in domestic distribution systems (lead, copper and plastics) may cause a deterioration of the water quality, especially in stagnant water. The relative exposure to the related compounds may increase considerably. Monitoring data from the tap (with defined sampling techniques) are needed. Also, disinfection/oxidation by-products (bromate, trihalomethanes) can be present in drinking water in considerable amounts and the relative exposure from drinking water may even approach 100%. Especially for volatile organic micropollutants, exposure routes from drinking water other than ingestion must be taken into account (inhalation, percutaneous uptake). When there is a need for detection of substances at very low levels it is important that the measurements are reliable. International interlaboratory comparisons for organic micropollutants are lacking at the moment.

Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

2018-02-01

Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

Analysis of water levels in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bright, D.J.; Watkins, S.A.; Lisle, B.A.

2001-01-01

Analysis of water levels in 21 wells in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site, provides information on the accuracy of hydraulic-head calculations, temporal water-level trends, and potential causes of water-level fluctuations. Accurate hydraulic heads are particularly important in Frenchman Flat where the hydraulic gradients are relatively flat (less than 1 foot per mile) in the alluvial aquifer. Temporal water-level trends with magnitudes near or exceeding the regional hydraulic gradient may have a substantial effect on ground-water flow directions. Water-level measurements can be adjusted for the effects of barometric pressure, formation water density (from water-temperature measurements), borehole deviation, and land-surface altitude in selected wells in the Frenchman Flat area. Water levels in one well were adjusted for the effect of density; this adjustment was significantly greater (about 17 feet) than the adjustment of water levels for barometric pressure, borehole deviation, or land-surface altitude (less than about 4 feet). Water-level measurements from five wells exhibited trends that were statistically and hydrologically significant. Statistically significant water-level trends were observed for three wells completed in the alluvial aquifer (WW-5a, UE-5n, and PW-3), for one well completed in the carbonate aquifer (SM-23), and for one well completed in the quartzite confining unit (Army-6a). Potential causes of water-level fluctuations in wells in the Frenchman Flat area include changes in atmospheric conditions (precipitation and barometric pressure), Earth tides, seismic activity, past underground nuclear testing, and nearby pumping. Periodic water-level measurements in some wells completed in the carbonate aquifer indicate cyclic-type water-level fluctuations that generally correlate with longer term changes (more than 5 years) in precipitation. Ground-water pumping fromthe alluvial aquifer at well WW-5c and pumping and discharge from well RNM-2s

A Comparison of Predictive Thermo and Water Solvation Property Prediction Tools and Experimental Data for Selected Traditional Chemical Warfare Agents and Simulants II: COSMO RS and COSMOTherm

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

A COMPARISON OF PREDICTIVE THERMO AND WATER SOLVATION PROPERTY PREDICTION TOOLS AND EXPERIMENTAL DATA FOR...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Comparison of Predictive Thermo and Water Solvation Property Prediction Tools and Experimental Data for Selected...1  2.  EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE

QSAR models for predicting octanol/water and organic carbon/water partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls.

PubMed

Yu, S; Gao, S; Gan, Y; Zhang, Y; Ruan, X; Wang, Y; Yang, L; Shi, J

2016-04-01

Quantitative structure-property relationship modelling can be a valuable alternative method to replace or reduce experimental testing. In particular, some endpoints such as octanol-water (KOW) and organic carbon-water (KOC) partition coefficients of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are easier to predict and various models have been already developed. In this paper, two different methods, which are multiple linear regression based on the descriptors generated using Dragon software and hologram quantitative structure-activity relationships, were employed to predict suspended particulate matter (SPM) derived log KOC and generator column, shake flask and slow stirring method derived log KOW values of 209 PCBs. The predictive ability of the derived models was validated using a test set. The performances of all these models were compared with EPI Suite™ software. The results indicated that the proposed models were robust and satisfactory, and could provide feasible and promising tools for the rapid assessment of the SPM derived log KOC and generator column, shake flask and slow stirring method derived log KOW values of PCBs.

Electrochemically reduced water exerts superior reactive oxygen species scavenging activity in HT1080 cells than the equivalent level of hydrogen-dissolved water

PubMed Central

Hamasaki, Takeki; Harada, Gakuro; Nakamichi, Noboru; Kabayama, Shigeru; Teruya, Kiichiro; Fugetsu, Bunshi; Gong, Wei; Sakata, Ichiro; Shirahata, Sanetaka

2017-01-01

Electrochemically reduced water (ERW) is produced near a cathode during electrolysis and exhibits an alkaline pH, contains richly dissolved hydrogen, and contains a small amount of platinum nanoparticles. ERW has reactive oxygen species (ROS)-scavenging activity and recent studies demonstrated that hydrogen-dissolved water exhibits ROS-scavenging activity. Thus, the antioxidative capacity of ERW is postulated to be dependent on the presence of hydrogen levels; however, there is no report verifying the role of dissolved hydrogen in ERW. In this report, we clarify whether the responsive factor for antioxidative activity in ERW is dissolved hydrogen. The intracellular ROS scavenging activity of ERW and hydrogen-dissolved water was tested by both fluorescent stain method and immuno spin trapping assay. We confirm that ERW possessed electrolysis intensity-dependent intracellular ROS-scavenging activity, and ERW exerts significantly superior ROS-scavenging activity in HT1080 cells than the equivalent level of hydrogen-dissolved water. ERW retained its ROS-scavenging activity after removal of dissolved hydrogen, but lost its activity when autoclaved. An oxygen radical absorbance capacity assay, the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl assay and chemiluminescence assay could not detect radical-scavenging activity in both ERW and hydrogen-dissolved water. These results indicate that ERW contains electrolysis-dependent hydrogen and an additional antioxidative factor predicted to be platinum nanoparticles. PMID:28182635

Electrochemically reduced water exerts superior reactive oxygen species scavenging activity in HT1080 cells than the equivalent level of hydrogen-dissolved water.

PubMed

Hamasaki, Takeki; Harada, Gakuro; Nakamichi, Noboru; Kabayama, Shigeru; Teruya, Kiichiro; Fugetsu, Bunshi; Gong, Wei; Sakata, Ichiro; Shirahata, Sanetaka

2017-01-01

Electrochemically reduced water (ERW) is produced near a cathode during electrolysis and exhibits an alkaline pH, contains richly dissolved hydrogen, and contains a small amount of platinum nanoparticles. ERW has reactive oxygen species (ROS)-scavenging activity and recent studies demonstrated that hydrogen-dissolved water exhibits ROS-scavenging activity. Thus, the antioxidative capacity of ERW is postulated to be dependent on the presence of hydrogen levels; however, there is no report verifying the role of dissolved hydrogen in ERW. In this report, we clarify whether the responsive factor for antioxidative activity in ERW is dissolved hydrogen. The intracellular ROS scavenging activity of ERW and hydrogen-dissolved water was tested by both fluorescent stain method and immuno spin trapping assay. We confirm that ERW possessed electrolysis intensity-dependent intracellular ROS-scavenging activity, and ERW exerts significantly superior ROS-scavenging activity in HT1080 cells than the equivalent level of hydrogen-dissolved water. ERW retained its ROS-scavenging activity after removal of dissolved hydrogen, but lost its activity when autoclaved. An oxygen radical absorbance capacity assay, the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl assay and chemiluminescence assay could not detect radical-scavenging activity in both ERW and hydrogen-dissolved water. These results indicate that ERW contains electrolysis-dependent hydrogen and an additional antioxidative factor predicted to be platinum nanoparticles.

Mercury and water level fluctuations in lakes of northern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, James H.; Maki, Ryan P; Christensen, Victoria G.; Sandheinrich, Mark B.; LeDuc, Jaime F.; Kissane, Claire; Knights, Brent C.

2017-01-01

Large lake ecosystems support a variety of ecosystem services in surrounding communities, including recreational and commercial fishing. However, many northern temperate fisheries are contaminated by mercury. Annual variation in mercury accumulation in fish has previously been linked to water level (WL) fluctuations, opening the possibility of regulating water levels in a manner that minimizes or reduces mercury contamination in fisheries. Here, we compiled a long-term dataset (1997-2015) of mercury content in young-of-year Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) from six lakes on the border between the U.S. and Canada and examined whether mercury content appeared to be related to several metrics of WL fluctuation (e.g., spring WL rise, annual maximum WL, and year-to-year change in maximum WL). Using simple correlation analysis, several WL metrics appear to be strongly correlated to Yellow Perch mercury content, although the strength of these correlations varies by lake. We also used many WL metrics, water quality measurements, temperature and annual deposition data to build predictive models using partial least squared regression (PLSR) analysis for each lake. These PLSR models showed some variation among lakes, but also supported strong associations between WL fluctuations and annual variation in Yellow Perch mercury content. The study lakes underwent a modest change in WL management in 2000, when winter WL minimums were increased by about 1 m in five of the six study lakes. Using the PLSR models, we estimated how this change in WL management would have affected Yellow Perch mercury content. For four of the study lakes, the change in WL management that occurred in 2000 likely reduced Yellow Perch mercury content, relative to the previous WL management regime.

Comparison of models for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community composition in the receiving water system of an inter-basin water transfer project.

PubMed

Zeng, Qinghui; Liu, Yi; Zhao, Hongtao; Sun, Mingdong; Li, Xuyong

2017-04-01

Inter-basin water transfer projects might cause complex hydro-chemical and biological variation in the receiving aquatic ecosystems. Whether machine learning models can be used to predict changes in phytoplankton community composition caused by water transfer projects have rarely been studied. In the present study, we used machine learning models to predict the total algal cell densities and changes in phytoplankton community composition in Miyun reservoir caused by the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). The model performances of four machine learning models, including regression trees (RT), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN) were evaluated and the best model was selected for further prediction. The results showed that the predictive accuracies (Pearson's correlation coefficient) of the models were RF (0.974), ANN (0.951), SVM (0.860), and RT (0.817) in the training step and RF (0.806), ANN (0.734), SVM (0.730), and RT (0.692) in the testing step. Therefore, the RF model was the best method for estimating total algal cell densities. Furthermore, the predicted accuracies of the RF model for dominant phytoplankton phyla (Cyanophyta, Chlorophyta, and Bacillariophyta) in Miyun reservoir ranged from 0.824 to 0.869 in the testing step. The predicted proportions with water transfer of the different phytoplankton phyla ranged from -8.88% to 9.93%, and the predicted dominant phyla with water transfer in each season remained unchanged compared to the phytoplankton succession without water transfer. The results of the present study provide a useful tool for predicting the changes in phytoplankton community caused by water transfer. The method is transferrable to other locations via establishment of models with relevant data to a particular area. Our findings help better understanding the possible changes in aquatic ecosystems influenced by inter-basin water transfer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

Ground-water levels in the alluvial aquifer in Eastern Arkansas, 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westerfield, P.W.; Baxter, C.R.

1990-01-01

This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service and local Conservation Districts, contains groundwater level measurements of 504 wells that tap the alluvial aquifer in the Quaternary deposits of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. The measurements were made by district Soil Conservation Service personnel during 1989. The shallowest prepumping season water levels occurred in Clay, Greene, Independence, Mississippi, Phillips, and Randolph Counties where water levels averaged less than 20 ft below the land surface. The deepest water levels occurred in Arkansas, Lonoke, Poinsett, and Prairie Counties where water levels of more than 100 ft were measured. Water levels in the postpumping season averaged about 2.5 ft lower than during the prepumping season. (USGS)

Ground-water levels in the alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas, 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westerfield, P.W.; Baxter, C.R.

1990-01-01

This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, and local Conservation Districts, contains groundwater level measurements of 509 wells that tap the alluvial aquifer in the Quaternary deposits of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. The measurements were made by district Soil Conservation Service personnel during 1988. The shallowest prepumping season water levels occurred in Ashley, Clay, Greene, Mississippi, Phillips, and Randolph Counties where water levels averaged less than 20 ft below the land surface. The deepest water levels occurred in Arkansas, Lonoke, Poinsett, and Prairie Counties where water levels of more than 100 ft below land surface were measured. Water levels in the postpumping season averaged about 4.1 ft lower than during the prepumping season. (USGS)

Fasting Lipoprotein Lipase Protein Levels Can Predict a Postmeal Increment of Triglyceride Levels in Fasting Normohypertriglyceridemic Subjects.

PubMed

Tsuzaki, Kokoro; Kotani, Kazuhiko; Yamada, Kazunori; Sakane, Naoki

2016-09-01

Although a postprandial increment in triglyceride (TG) levels is considered to be a risk factor for atherogenesis, tests (e.g., fat load) to assess postprandial changes in TG levels cannot be easily applied to clinical practice. Therefore, fasting markers that predict postprandial TG states are needed to be developed. One current candidate is lipoprotein lipase (LPL) protein, a molecule that hydrides TGs. This study investigated whether fasting LPL levels could predict postprandial TG levels. A total of 17 subjects (11 men, 6 women, mean age 52 ± 11 years) with normotriglyceridemia during fasting underwent the meal test. Several fasting parameters, including LPL, were measured for the area under the curve of postprandial TGs (AUC-TG). The subjects' mean fasting TG level was 1.30 mmol/l, and their mean LPL level was 41.6 ng/ml. The subjects' TG levels increased after loading (they peaked after two postprandial hours). Stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrated that fasting TG levels were a predictor of the AUC-TG. In addition, fasting LPL mass levels were found to be a predictor of the AUC-TG (β = 0.65, P < 0.01), and this relationship was independent of fasting TG levels. Fasting LPL levels may be useful to predict postprandial TG increment in this population. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of decreased ground-water withdrawal on ground-water levels and chloride concentrations in Camden County, Georgia, and ground-water levels in Nassau County, Florida, from September 2001 to May 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peck, Michael F.; McFadden, Keith W.; Leeth, David C.

2005-01-01

During October 2002, the Durango Paper Company formerly Gillman Paper Company) in St. Marys, Georgia, shut down paper-mill operations; the shutdown resulted in decreased ground-water withdrawal in Camden County by 35.6 million gallons per day. The decrease in withdrawal resulted in water-level rise in wells completed in the Floridan aquifer system and the overlying surficial and Brunswick aquifer systems; many wells in the St. Marys area flowed for the first time since the mill began operations during 1941. Pumping at the mill resulted in the development of a cone of depression that coalesced with a larger adjacent cone of depression at Fernandina Beach, Florida. Since closure of the mill, the cone at St. Marys is no longer present, although the cone still exists at Fernandina Beach, Florida. Historical water-level data from the production wells at the mill indicate that the pumping water level ranged from 68 to 235 feet (ft) below North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88) and averaged about 114 ft when the mill was operating. Since the shutdown, it is estimated that water levels at the mill have risen about 140 ft and are now at about 30 ft above NAVD 88. The water-level rise in wells in outlying areas in Camden County was less pronounced and ranged from about 5 to 10 ft above NAVD 88. Because of the regional upward water-level trend in the Upper Floridan aquifer that started during 19992000 in most of the coastal area, combined with a steeper upward trend beginning during October 2002, it was not possible to determine if the 510 ft rise in water levels in wells away from St. Marys was due to the mill closure. In addition to water-level rise of 2226 ft in the Floridan aquifer system, water-level rises in the overlying surficial and Brunswick aquifer systems at St. Marys after the shutdown indicate upward leakage of water. Water levels had stabilized in the confined surficial and Upper and Lower Floridan aquifers by AprilMay 2003; however, the water level in

Integral Analysis of Field Work and Laboratory Electrical Resistivity Imaging for Saline Water Intrusion Prediction in Groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zawawi, M. H.; Zahar, M. F.; Hashim, M. M. M.; Hazreek, Z. A. M.; Zahari, N. M.; Kamaruddin, M. A.

2018-04-01

Saline water intrusion is a serious threat to the groundwater as many part of the world utilize groundwater as their main source of fresh water supply. The usage of high salinity level of water as drinking water can lead to a very serious health hazard towards human. Saline water intrusion is a process by which induced flow of seawater into freshwater aquifer along the coastal area. It might happen due to human action and/or by natural event. The climate change and rise up of sea level may speed up the saline water intrusion process. The conventional method for distinguishing and checking saltwater interference to groundwater along the coast aquifers is to gather and test the groundwater from series of observation wells (borehole) with an end goal to give the important information about the hydrochemistry data to conclude whether the water in the well are safe to consume or not. An integrated approach of field and laboratory electrical resistivity investigation is proposed for indicating the contact region between saline and fresh groundwater. It was found that correlation for both soilbox produced almost identical curvilinear trends for 2% increment of seawater tested using sand sample. This project contributes towards predicting the saline water intrusion to the groundwater by non-destructive test that can replaced the conventional method of groundwater monitoring using series of boreholes in the coastal area

Evaluation of an operational water cycle prediction system for the Laurentian Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortin, Vincent; Durnford, Dorothy; Smith, Gregory; Dyck, Sarah; Martinez, Yosvany; Mackay, Murray; Winter, Barbara

2017-04-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is implementing new numerical guidance products based on fully coupled numerical models to better inform the public as well as specialized users on the current and future state of various components of the water cycle, including stream flow and water levels. Outputs from this new system, named the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS), have been available for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed since June 2016. WCPS links together ECCC's weather forecasting model, GEM, the 2-D ice model C-ICE, the 3-D lake and ocean model NEMO, and a 2-D hydrological model, WATROUTE. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models at intervals varying from a few minutes to one hour. It currently produces two forecasts per day for the next three days of the complete water cycle in the Great Lakes region, the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Products include spatially-varying precipitation, evaporation, river discharge, water level anomalies, surface water temperatures, ice coverage, and surface currents. These new products are of interest to water resources and management authority, flood forecasters, hydroelectricity producers, navigation, environmental disaster managers, search and rescue teams, agriculture, and the general public. This presentation focuses on the evaluation of various elements forecasted by the system, and weighs the advantages and disadvantages of running the system fully coupled.

Water underground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, Inge

2015-04-01

The world's largest assessable source of freshwater is hidden underground, but we do not know what is happening to it yet. In many places of the world groundwater is abstracted at unsustainable rates: more water is used than being recharged, leading to decreasing river discharges and declining groundwater levels. It is predicted that for many regions of the world unsustainable water use will increase, due to increasing human water use under changing climate. It would not be long before shortage causes widespread droughts and the first water war begins. Improving our knowledge about our hidden water is the first step to stop this. The world largest aquifers are mapped, but these maps do not mention how much water they contain or how fast water levels decline. If we can add a third dimension to the aquifer maps, so a thickness, and add geohydrological information we can estimate how much water is stored. Also data on groundwater age and how fast it is refilled is needed to predict the impact of human water use and climate change on the groundwater resource.

Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

2014-12-01

We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

Predictive model for disinfection by-product in Alexandria drinking water, northern west of Egypt.

PubMed

Abdullah, Ali M; Hussona, Salah El-dien

2013-10-01

Chlorine has been utilized in the early stages of water treatment processes as disinfectant. Disinfection for drinking water reduces the risk of pathogenic infection but may pose a chemical threat to human health due to disinfection residues and their by-products (DBP) when the organic and inorganic precursors are present in water. In the last two decades, many modeling attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of DBP in drinking water. Models have been developed based on data generated in laboratory-scale and field-scale investigations. The objective of this paper is to develop a predictive model for DBP formation in the Alexandria governorate located at the northern west of Egypt based on field-scale investigations as well as laboratory-controlled experimentations. The present study showed that the correlation coefficient between trihalomethanes (THM) predicted and THM measured was R (2)=0.88 and the minimum deviation percentage between THM predicted and THM measured was 0.8 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 89.3 %, and the average deviation was 17.8 %, while the correlation coefficient between dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) predicted and DCAA measured was R (2)=0.98 and the minimum deviation percentage between DCAA predicted and DCAA measured was 1.3 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 47.2 %, and the average deviation was 16.6 %. In addition, the correlation coefficient between trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) predicted and TCAA measured was R (2)=0.98 and the minimum deviation percentage between TCAA predicted and TCAA measured was 4.9 %, the maximum deviation percentage was 43.0 %, and the average deviation was 16.0 %.

Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model status and updates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This presentation will provide current information on the USDA-ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, and its implementation by the USDA-Forest Service (FS), USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and other agencies and universities. Most recently, the USDA-NRCS has begun ef...

Influence of Reservoir Water Level Fluctuations on Sediment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Mercury (Hg) is a pollutant of global concern due to its ability to accumulate as methylmercury (MeHg) in biota. Mercury is methylated by anaerobic microorganisms such as sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) in water and sediment. Throughout North America, reservoirs tend to have elevated methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations compared to natural lakes and rivers. This impact is most pronounced in newly created reservoirs where methylation is fueled by the decomposition of flooded organic material, which can release Hg and enhance microbial activity. Much less is known about the longer-term water-level management impacts on Hg cycling in older reservoirs. The objective of our study was to understand the role of on-going water-level fluctuations on sediment MeHg concentrations and sulfur speciation within a reservoir 75 years after initial impoundment. The study was performed at the Cottage Grove Reservoir located 15 km downstream of the historical Black Butte Hg mine. For 8 months each year, the water level is lowered resulting in roughly half of the reservoir’s sediment being exposed to the atmosphere. Water samples from the inflow, water-column, outflow, and sediment were collected seasonally over a year for total-Hg, MeHg, and several ancillary parameters. The results showed that conditions in the reservoir were favorable to methylation with a much higher %MeHg observed in the outflowing water (34%) compared to the inflow (7%) during the late-summer. An

Bi-Level Decision Making for Supporting Energy and Water Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2016-12-01

The inseparable relationship between energy production and water resources has led to the emerging energy-water nexus concept, which provides a means for integrated management and decision making of these two critical resources. However, the energy-water nexus frequently involves decision makers with different and competing management objectives. Furthermore, there is a challenge that decision makers and stakeholders might be making decisions sequentially from a higher level to a lower level, instead of at the same decision level, whereby the objective of a decision maker at a higher level should be satisfied first. In this study, a bi-level decision model is advanced to handle such decision-making situations for managing the energy-water nexus. The work represents a unique contribution to developing an integrated decision-support framework/tool to quantify and analyze the tradeoffs between the two-level energy-water nexus decision makers. Here, plans for electricity generation, fuel supply, water supply, capacity expansion of the power plants and environmental impacts are optimized to provide effective decision support. The developed decision-support framework is implemented in Julia (a high-level, high-performance dynamic programming language for technical computing) and is a part of the MADS (Model Analyses & Decision Support) framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). To demonstrate the capabilities of the developed methodology, a series of analyses are performed for synthetic problems consistent with actual real-world energy-water nexus management problems.

Effect of time step size and turbulence model on the open water hydrodynamic performance prediction of contra-rotating propellers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhan-zhi; Xiong, Ying

2013-04-01

A growing interest has been devoted to the contra-rotating propellers (CRPs) due to their high propulsive efficiency, torque balance, low fuel consumption, low cavitations, low noise performance and low hull vibration. Compared with the single-screw system, it is more difficult for the open water performance prediction because forward and aft propellers interact with each other and generate a more complicated flow field around the CRPs system. The current work focuses on the open water performance prediction of contra-rotating propellers by RANS and sliding mesh method considering the effect of computational time step size and turbulence model. The validation study has been performed on two sets of contra-rotating propellers developed by David W Taylor Naval Ship R & D center. Compared with the experimental data, it shows that RANS with sliding mesh method and SST k-ω turbulence model has a good precision in the open water performance prediction of contra-rotating propellers, and small time step size can improve the level of accuracy for CRPs with the same blade number of forward and aft propellers, while a relatively large time step size is a better choice for CRPs with different blade numbers.

Model Predictive Control application for real time operation of controlled structures for the Water Authority Noorderzijlvest, The Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Gooijer, Jan; Knot, Floris; Talsma, Jan

2015-04-01

In the Netherlands, flood protection has always been a key issue to protect settlements against storm surges and riverine floods. Whereas flood protection traditionally focused on structural measures, nowadays the availability of meteorological and hydrological forecasts enable the application of more advanced real-time control techniques for operating the existing hydraulic infrastructure in an anticipatory and more efficient way. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a powerful technique to derive optimal control variables with the help of model based predictions evaluated against a control objective. In a project for the regional water authority Noorderzijlvest in the north of the Netherlands, it has been shown that MPC can increase the safety level of the system during flood events by an anticipatory pre-release of water. Furthermore, energy costs of pumps can be reduced by making tactical use of the water storage and shifting pump activities during normal operating conditions to off-peak hours. In this way cheap energy is used in combination of gravity flow through gates during low tide periods. MPC has now been implemented for daily operational use of the whole water system of the water authority Noorderzijlvest. The system developed to a real time decision support system which not only supports the daily operation but is able to directly implement the optimal control settings at the structures. We explain how we set-up and calibrated a prediction model (RTC-Tools) that is accurate and fast enough for optimization purposes, and how we integrated it in the operational flood early warning system (Delft-FEWS). Beside the prediction model, the weights and the factors of the objective function are an important element of MPC, since they shape the control objective. We developed special features in Delft-FEWS to allow the operators to adjust the objective function in order to meet changing requirements and to evaluate different control strategies.

[Serum PTH levels as a predictive factor of hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

PubMed

Díez Alonso, Manuel; Sánchez López, José Daniel; Sánchez-Seco Peña, María Isabel; Ratia Jiménez, Tomás; Arribas Gómez, Ignacio; Rodríguez Pascual, Angel; Martín-Duce, Antonio; Guadalix Hidalgo, Gregorio; Hernández Domínguez, Sara; Granell Vicent, Javier

2009-02-01

Postoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels as a predictor of hypocalcaemia in patients subjected to total thyroidectomy is analyzed. Prospective study involving 67 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy due to a benign disease. Serum PTH and ionised calcium were measured 20 h after surgery. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of PTH and ionised calcium levels were calculated to predict clinical and analytical hypocalcaemia. A total of 42 (62.7%) patients developed hypocalcaemia (ionised calcium<0.95 mmol/l), but only 20 (29.9%) presented with symptoms. PTH concentration the day after surgery was significantly lower in the group that developed symptomatic hypocalcaemia (5.57+/-6.4 pg/ml) than in the asymptomatic (21.5+/-15.3 pg/ml) or normocalcaemic (26.8+/-24.9 pg/ml) groups (p=0.001). Taking the value of 13 pg/ml as a cut-off point of PTH levels, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 54%, 72%, 76% and 48%, respectively. On the other hand, sensitivity for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia was 95% and specificity was 76%. The test showed a high incidence of false positives (11/30, 36%). Negative predictive value was 97% and positive predictive value was 65%. In multivariate analysis, PTH and ionised calcium were the only perioperative factors that showed an independent predictive value as risk indicators of symptomatic hypocalcaemia. Normal PTH levels 20 h after surgery practically rule out the subsequent appearance of hypocalcaemia symptoms. On the other hand, low PTH levels are not necessarily associated to symptomatic hypocalcaemia due to the high number of false positives.

Predicting Plant Invasions Following China's Water Diversion Project.

PubMed

Liu, Dasheng; Wang, Rui; Gordon, Doria R; Sun, Xihua; Chen, Lu; Wang, Yanwen

2017-02-07

China's South to North Water Diversion (SNWD) project connects portions of the Yangtze River in the south to the Yellow River system in the north, overcoming biogeographic barriers to water movement. The diversion will supply potable water to over 110 million people and provide multiple other socioeconomic benefits. However, an inadvertent negative impact of this connection includes creation of conduits for species invasions. Alligator weed (Alternanthera philoxeroides), water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), and water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes) are the only aquatic plant species on China's shortlists for special control. These species are mainly invasive in the Yangtze River basin. If these species are able to invade the SNWD and further spread via the SNWD, they have the potential to alter water supply, including water quantity and quality, as well as local ecology and agriculture, threatening the goals of the diversion. Understanding the full potential for these species to invade northern China is critical to early management decisions to avoid costly negative impacts. We used Maxent modeling to evaluate the probability that each of these species might become invasive in the receiving water regions. The models predict that all three species will be able to expand their ranges northward, with alligator weed and water hyacinth having the greatest potential for range expansion. These results suggest the need for prevention, monitoring, and management strategies for these species to reduce the risk and costs of impacts.

Blind prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients from the SAMPL5 challenge.

PubMed

Bannan, Caitlin C; Burley, Kalistyn H; Chiu, Michael; Shirts, Michael R; Gilson, Michael K; Mobley, David L

2016-11-01

In the recent SAMPL5 challenge, participants submitted predictions for cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for a set of 53 small molecules. Distribution coefficients (log D) replace the hydration free energies that were a central part of the past five SAMPL challenges. A wide variety of computational methods were represented by the 76 submissions from 18 participating groups. Here, we analyze submissions by a variety of error metrics and provide details for a number of reference calculations we performed. As in the SAMPL4 challenge, we assessed the ability of participants to evaluate not just their statistical uncertainty, but their model uncertainty-how well they can predict the magnitude of their model or force field error for specific predictions. Unfortunately, this remains an area where prediction and analysis need improvement. In SAMPL4 the top performing submissions achieved a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 kcal/mol. If we anticipate accuracy in log D predictions to be similar to the hydration free energy predictions in SAMPL4, the expected error here would be around 1.54 log units. Only a few submissions had an RMSE below 2.5 log units in their predicted log D values. However, distribution coefficients introduced complexities not present in past SAMPL challenges, including tautomer enumeration, that are likely to be important in predicting biomolecular properties of interest to drug discovery, therefore some decrease in accuracy would be expected. Overall, the SAMPL5 distribution coefficient challenge provided great insight into the importance of modeling a variety of physical effects. We believe these types of measurements will be a promising source of data for future blind challenges, especially in view of the relatively straightforward nature of the experiments and the level of insight provided.

Blind prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients from the SAMPL5 challenge

PubMed Central

Bannan, Caitlin C.; Burley, Kalistyn H.; Chiu, Michael; Shirts, Michael R.; Gilson, Michael K.; Mobley, David L.

2016-01-01

In the recent SAMPL5 challenge, participants submitted predictions for cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for a set of 53 small molecules. Distribution coefficients (log D) replace the hydration free energies that were a central part of the past five SAMPL challenges. A wide variety of computational methods were represented by the 76 submissions from 18 participating groups. Here, we analyze submissions by a variety of error metrics and provide details for a number of reference calculations we performed. As in the SAMPL4 challenge, we assessed the ability of participants to evaluate not just their statistical uncertainty, but their model uncertainty – how well they can predict the magnitude of their model or force field error for specific predictions. Unfortunately, this remains an area where prediction and analysis need improvement. In SAMPL4 the top performing submissions achieved a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 kcal/mol. If we anticipate accuracy in log D predictions to be similar to the hydration free energy predictions in SAMPL4, the expected error here would be around 1.54 log units. Only a few submissions had an RMSE below 2.5 log units in their predicted log D values. However, distribution coefficients introduced complexities not present in past SAMPL challenges, including tautomer enumeration, that are likely to be important in predicting biomolecular properties of interest to drug discovery, therefore some decrease in accuracy would be expected. Overall, the SAMPL5 distribution coefficient challenge provided great insight into the importance of modeling a variety of physical effects. We believe these types of measurements will be a promising source of data for future blind challenges, especially in view of the relatively straightforward nature of the experiments and the level of insight provided. PMID:27677750

Level Alignment as Descriptor for Semiconductor/Catalyst Systems in Water Splitting: The Case of Hematite/Cobalt Hexacyanoferrate Photoanodes.

PubMed

Hegner, Franziska Simone; Cardenas-Morcoso, Drialys; Giménez, Sixto; López, Núria; Galan-Mascaros, Jose Ramon

2017-11-23

The realization of artificial photosynthesis may depend on the efficient integration of photoactive semiconductors and catalysts to promote photoelectrochemical water splitting. Many efforts are currently devoted to the processing of multicomponent anodes and cathodes in the search for appropriate synergy between light absorbers and active catalysts. No single material appears to combine both features. Many experimental parameters are key to achieve the needed synergy between both systems, without clear protocols for success. Herein, we show how computational chemistry can shed some light on this cumbersome problem. DFT calculations are useful to predict adequate energy-level alignment for thermodynamically favored hole transfer. As proof of concept, we experimentally confirmed the limited performance enhancement in hematite photoanodes decorated with cobalt hexacyanoferrate as a competent water-oxidation catalyst. Computational methods describe the misalignment of their energy levels, which is the origin of this mismatch. Photoelectrochemical studies indicate that the catalyst exclusively shifts the hematite surface state to lower potentials, which therefore reduces the onset for water oxidation. Although kinetics will still depend on interface architecture, our simple theoretical approach may identify and predict plausible semiconductor/catalyst combinations, which will speed up experimental work towards promising photoelectrocatalytic systems. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Model analysis of effects on water levels at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by construction dewatering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marie, James R.

1976-01-01

The computer models were developed to investigate possible hydrologic effects within the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by planned dewatering at the adjacent Bailly Nuclear Generator construction site. The model analysis indicated that the planned dewatering would cause a drawdown of about 4 ft under the westernmost pond of the Lakeshore and that this drawdown would cause the pond to go almost dry--less than 0.5 ft of water remaining in about 1 percent of the pond--under average conditions during the 18-month dewatering period. When water levels are below average, as during late July and early August 1974, the pond would go dry in about 5.5 months. However, the pond may not have to go completely dry to damage the ecosystem. If the National Park Service 's independent study determines the minimum pond level at which ecosystem damage would be minimized, the models developed in this study could be used to predict the hydrologic conditions necessary to maintain that level. 

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Modeling and optimization of trihalomethanes formation potential of surface water (a drinking water source) using Box-Behnken design.

PubMed

Singh, Kunwar P; Rai, Premanjali; Pandey, Priyanka; Sinha, Sarita

2012-01-01

The present research aims to investigate the individual and interactive effects of chlorine dose/dissolved organic carbon ratio, pH, temperature, bromide concentration, and reaction time on trihalomethanes (THMs) formation in surface water (a drinking water source) during disinfection by chlorination in a prototype laboratory-scale simulation and to develop a model for the prediction and optimization of THMs levels in chlorinated water for their effective control. A five-factor Box-Behnken experimental design combined with response surface and optimization modeling was used for predicting the THMs levels in chlorinated water. The adequacy of the selected model and statistical significance of the regression coefficients, independent variables, and their interactions were tested by the analysis of variance and t test statistics. The THMs levels predicted by the model were very close to the experimental values (R(2) = 0.95). Optimization modeling predicted maximum (192 μg/l) TMHs formation (highest risk) level in water during chlorination was very close to the experimental value (186.8 ± 1.72 μg/l) determined in laboratory experiments. The pH of water followed by reaction time and temperature were the most significant factors that affect the THMs formation during chlorination. The developed model can be used to determine the optimum characteristics of raw water and chlorination conditions for maintaining the THMs levels within the safe limit.

Geographical mapping of fluoride levels in drinking water sources in Nigeria.

PubMed

Akpata, Enosakhare S; Danfillo, I S; Otoh, E C; Mafeni, J O

2009-12-01

Knowledge of fluoride levels in drinking water is of importance in dental public health, yet this information is lacking, at national level, in Nigeria. To map out fluoride levels in drinking water sources in Nigeria. Fluoride levels in drinking water sources from 109 randomly selected Local Government Areas (LGAs) in the 6 Nigerian geopolitical zones were determined. From the results, maps showing LGAs with fluoride concentrations exceeding 0.3 ppm, were drawn. ANOVA and t-test were used to determine the significance of the differences between the fluoride levels in the drinking water sources. Fluoride levels were low in most parts of the country, being 0.3 ppm or less in 62% of the LGAs. Fluoride concentrations were generally higher in North Central geopolitical zone, than the other zones in the country (p<0.05). In a few drinking water sources, fluoride concentrations exceeded 1.5 ppm, but was as high as 6.7 ppm in one well. Only 9% of the water sources were from waterworks. Most of the water sources in Nigeria contained low fluoride levels; but few had excessive concentrations and need to be partially defluoridated, or else alternative sources of drinking water provided for the community.

Estimating Impaired Waters on a County Level for Public Health Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water quality for ...

Water-level altitudes 2004 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2003 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer

2004-01-01

This report is one in an annual series of reports that depicts water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The Houston-Galveston region comprises Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Waller, and Montgomery Counties and adjacent parts of Brazoria, Grimes, Walker, San Jacinto, Liberty, and Chambers Counties. The report was prepared in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District, the City of Houston, the Fort Bend Subsidence District, and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District. For the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, maps show approximate water-level altitudes in 2004, water-level changes from 2003 to 2004, approximate water-level changes from 1977 to 2004, and approximate water-level changes from 1990 to 2004 (figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8). For the Jasper aquifer, maps show approximate water-level altitudes in 2004 and water-level changes from 2003 to 2004 and 2000 to 2004 (figs. 9, 10, 11). The report also contains a map showing borehole extensometer (well equipped with compaction monitor) site locations (fig. 12) and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at these sites from 1973 or later to 2003 (fig. 13). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published annual reports of water-level altitudes and water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region since 1979; and annual reports of same for the Fort Bend subregion (Fort Bend County and adjacent areas) since 1990. The USGS published its first water-level-altitude map for the Jasper aquifer in the greater Houston area (primarily Montgomery County) in 2001. The 2004 water-level-altitude and water-level-change maps for the three aquifers are included in this report.

Ground-water-quality and ground-water-level data, Bernalillo County, central New Mexico, 1990-1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kues, G.E.; Garcia, B.M.

1995-01-01

Ground-water-quality and ground-water-level data were collected in four unincorporated areas of Bernalillo County during 1990-93. Twenty wells in the east mountain area of Bernalillo County were sampled approximately monthly between January 1990 and June 1993. The water samples were analyzed for concentrations of chloride and selected nutrient species; many of the samples also were analyzed for concentrations of total organic carbon and dissolved boron and iron. Eleven wells northeast of the city of Albuquerque, 20 wells in the Rio Grande Valley immediately north of Albuquerque, and 30 wells in the Rio Grande Valley immediately south of Albuquerque were sampled once each between December 1992 and September 1993; all water samples were analyzed for chloride and selected nutrient species, and selected samples from wells in the north and south valley areas were also analyzed for major dissolved constituents, iron, manganese, and methylene blue active substances. Samples from 10 of the wells in the north and south valley areas were analyzed for 47 selected pesticides. Field measurements of specific conductance, pH, temperature, and alkalinity were made on most samples at the time of sample collection. Water levels also were measured at the time of sample collection when possible. Results of the monthly water-quality and water-level monitoring in the east mountain area of Bernalillo County are presented in graphical form. Water-quality and water-level data collected from the other areas are presented in tabular form.

Blood glucose level prediction based on support vector regression using mobile platforms.

PubMed

Reymann, Maximilian P; Dorschky, Eva; Groh, Benjamin H; Martindale, Christine; Blank, Peter; Eskofier, Bjoern M

2016-08-01

The correct treatment of diabetes is vital to a patient's health: Staying within defined blood glucose levels prevents dangerous short- and long-term effects on the body. Mobile devices informing patients about their future blood glucose levels could enable them to take counter-measures to prevent hypo or hyper periods. Previous work addressed this challenge by predicting the blood glucose levels using regression models. However, these approaches required a physiological model, representing the human body's response to insulin and glucose intake, or are not directly applicable to mobile platforms (smart phones, tablets). In this paper, we propose an algorithm for mobile platforms to predict blood glucose levels without the need for a physiological model. Using an online software simulator program, we trained a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model and exported the parameter settings to our mobile platform. The prediction accuracy of our mobile platform was evaluated with pre-recorded data of a type 1 diabetes patient. The blood glucose level was predicted with an error of 19 % compared to the true value. Considering the permitted error of commercially used devices of 15 %, our algorithm is the basis for further development of mobile prediction algorithms.

Non-invasive prediction of hematocrit levels by portable visible and near-infrared spectrophotometer.

PubMed

Sakudo, Akikazu; Kato, Yukiko Hakariya; Kuratsune, Hirohiko; Ikuta, Kazuyoshi

2009-10-01

After blood donation, in some individuals having polycythemia, dehydration causes anemia. Although the hematocrit (Ht) level is closely related to anemia, the current method of measuring Ht is performed after blood drawing. Furthermore, the monitoring of Ht levels contributes to a healthy life. Therefore, a non-invasive test for Ht is warranted for the safe donation of blood and good quality of life. A non-invasive procedure for the prediction of hematocrit levels was developed on the basis of a chemometric analysis of visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectra of the thumbs using portable spectrophotometer. Transmittance spectra in the 600- to 1100-nm region from thumbs of Japanese volunteers were subjected to a partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis and leave-out cross-validation to develop chemometric models for predicting Ht levels. Ht levels of masked samples predicted by this model from Vis-NIR spectra provided a coefficient of determination in prediction of 0.6349 with a standard error of prediction of 3.704% and a detection limit in prediction of 17.14%, indicating that the model is applicable for normal and abnormal value in Ht level. These results suggest portable Vis-NIR spectrophotometer to have potential for the non-invasive measurement of Ht levels with a combination of PLSR analysis.

Water resources data, Montana, water year 2005: Volume 2. Yellowstone and upper Columbia River basins and ground-water levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berkas, Wayne R.; White, Melvin K.; Ladd, Patricia B.; Bailey, Fred A.; Dodge, Kent A.

2006-01-01

Water resources data for Montana for the 2005 water year, volumes 1 and 2, consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage, contents, and water quality of lakes and reservoirs; and water levels in wells. This volume contains discharge records for 120 streamflow-gaging stations; stage or content records for 22 lakes and reservoirs; water-quality records for 86 streamflow stations (32 ungaged), and 25 ground-water wells; water-level records for 25 observation wells; and precipitation records for 2 atmospheric-deposition stations. Additional water year 2005 data collected at crest-stage gage and miscellaneous-measurement sites were collected but are not published in this report. These data are stored within the District office files in Helena and are available on request. These data represent part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Montana.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

PubMed

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Water-level altitudes 2001, water-level changes 1977-2001 and 2000-2001, and compaction 1973-2000 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coplin, L.S.; Houston, Natalie A.; Brown, Dexter W.

2001-01-01

This report is one in an annual series of reports that depicts water-level altitudes and water-level changes since 1977 and compaction since 1973 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas. The report, prepared in cooperation with the City of Houston and the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District, presents maps for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers showing the approximate water-level altitudes in wells in 2001 (figs 1,4) and approximate water-level changes in wells from 1977 to 2001 and from 2000 to 2001 (figs 2,3,5,6), a map showing extensometer site locations (fig. 7), and graphs showing measured compaction of subserface material at selected sites from 1973 to 2000 (fig. 8). The most recent previously published water-level-altitude maps and water-level-change maps for the two aquifers in the region are by Coplin and Santos. (2000). The Houston-Galveston region comprises Harris and Galveston Counties and adjacent parts of Brazoria, Fort Bend, Waller, Montgomery, Liberty, and Chambers Counties.

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, January 1996 through December 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sweat, M.J.

1997-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into an agreement to continue collecting water levels at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, the USGS has provided training and instrumentation for County personnel to measure, on a quarterly basis, the depth to water below the land surface in selected wells. The agreement includes the operation of continuous water-level recorders installed on four wells in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant and Lake Townships (fig. 1). County personnel make quarterly water-level measurements of 22 other wells. Once each year, County personnel are accompanied by USGS personnel who provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made.Precipitation and the altitude of Lake Huron are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for ground-water levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the mean monthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from measurements made by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at two sites, and mean monthly precipitation as recorded in Huron County, for the period October 1988 through December 1996. In general, Lake Huron water levels in 1996 were about the same as they were from 1992-94 (NOAA, 1988-96). Precipitation was generally within the normal range, but was lower than 1993 or 1994. Rainfall during May, June, and July was, cumulatively, about 8.5 inches less in 1995 than in 1994.Hydrographs are presented for each of four wells with water-level recorders. Quarterly water-level measurements and range of water levels during 1996 for the other 22 wells are shown graphically and tabulated.In general, water levels in the glaciofluvial aquifer reflect seasonal variations, with maximum depths to water occurring in late summer and early fall and minimum depths to water occurring in late winter and early

Monitoring of Low-Level Virus in Natural Waters

PubMed Central

Sorber, Charles A.; Sagik, Bernard P.; Malina, Joseph F.

1971-01-01

The insoluble polyelectrolyte technique for concentrating virus is extended to extremely low virus levels. The effectiveness of this method employing a coliphage T2 model is a constant 20% over a range of virus levels from 103 to 10−4 plaque-forming units/ml. The efficiency of the method is dependent upon pH control during the concentration phase. Although the study was initiated to develop a method for quantitating the effectiveness of water and wastewater treatment methods for the removal of viruses from waters at low concentrations, the potential of the technique for efficient monitoring of natural waters is apparent. PMID:4940873

Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1978 through September 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, H.I.; Green, S.L.

1988-01-01

Groundwater levels are measured periodically in a network of 95 observation wells in Wyoming, mostly in areas where groundwater is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. The program is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and the Wyoming Economic Development and Stabilization Board. This report contains hydrographs for 95 observation wells showing water level fluctuations from 1978 through September 1987. Also included in the report are maps showing locations of observation wells and tables listing well depths, use of water, geologic source, records available, and highest and lowest water levels for the period of record. (USGS)

Predicting Near-Term Water Quality from Satellite Observations of Watershed Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, W. J.; Wang, L.; Hoffman, K.; West, D.; Mehta, A. V.; Lee, C.

2017-12-01

Despite the strong influence of watershed conditions on source water quality, most water utilities and water resource agencies do not currently have the capability to monitor watershed sources of contamination with great temporal or spatial detail. Typically, knowledge of source water quality is limited to periodic grab sampling; automated monitoring of a limited number of parameters at a few select locations; and/or monitoring relevant constituents at a treatment plant intake. While important, such observations are not sufficient to inform proactive watershed or source water management at a monthly or seasonal scale. Satellite remote sensing data on the other hand can provide a snapshot of an entire watershed at regular, sub-monthly intervals, helping analysts characterize watershed conditions and identify trends that could signal changes in source water quality. Accordingly, the authors are investigating correlations between satellite remote sensing observations of watersheds and source water quality, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and lags. While correlations between remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements of water quality have been well described in the literature, there are few studies that link remote sensing observations across a watershed with near-term predictions of water quality. In this presentation, the authors will describe results of statistical analyses and discuss how these results are being used to inform development of a desktop decision support tool to support predictive application of remote sensing data. Predictor variables under evaluation include parameters that describe vegetative conditions; parameters that describe climate/weather conditions; and non-remote sensing, in situ measurements. Water quality parameters under investigation include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, and turbidity.

Energy-Water Nexus: Balancing the Tradeoffs between Two-Level Decision Makers

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Xiaodong; Vesselinov, Velimir Valentinov

2016-09-03

Energy-water nexus has substantially increased importance in the recent years. Synergistic approaches based on systems-analysis and mathematical models are critical for helping decision makers better understand the interrelationships and tradeoffs between energy and water. In energywater nexus management, various decision makers with different goals and preferences, which are often conflicting, are involved. These decision makers may have different controlling power over the management objectives and the decisions. They make decisions sequentially from the upper level to the lower level, challenging decision making in energy-water nexus. In order to address such planning issues, a bi-level decision model is developed, which improvesmore » upon the existing studies by integration of bi-level programming into energy-water nexus management. The developed model represents a methodological contribution to the challenge of sequential decisionmaking in energy-water nexus through provision of an integrated modeling framework/tool. An interactive fuzzy optimization methodology is introduced to seek a satisfactory solution to meet the overall satisfaction of the two-level decision makers. The tradeoffs between the two-level decision makers in energy-water nexus management are effectively addressed and quantified. Application of the proposed model to a synthetic example problem has demonstrated its applicability in practical energy-water nexus management. Optimal solutions for electricity generation, fuel supply, water supply including groundwater, surface water and recycled water, capacity expansion of the power plants, and GHG emission control are generated. In conclusion, these analyses are capable of helping decision makers or stakeholders adjust their tolerances to make informed decisions to achieve the overall satisfaction of energy-water nexus management where bi-level sequential decision making process is involved.« less

Energy-Water Nexus: Balancing the Tradeoffs between Two-Level Decision Makers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Vesselinov, Velimir Valentinov

Energy-water nexus has substantially increased importance in the recent years. Synergistic approaches based on systems-analysis and mathematical models are critical for helping decision makers better understand the interrelationships and tradeoffs between energy and water. In energywater nexus management, various decision makers with different goals and preferences, which are often conflicting, are involved. These decision makers may have different controlling power over the management objectives and the decisions. They make decisions sequentially from the upper level to the lower level, challenging decision making in energy-water nexus. In order to address such planning issues, a bi-level decision model is developed, which improvesmore » upon the existing studies by integration of bi-level programming into energy-water nexus management. The developed model represents a methodological contribution to the challenge of sequential decisionmaking in energy-water nexus through provision of an integrated modeling framework/tool. An interactive fuzzy optimization methodology is introduced to seek a satisfactory solution to meet the overall satisfaction of the two-level decision makers. The tradeoffs between the two-level decision makers in energy-water nexus management are effectively addressed and quantified. Application of the proposed model to a synthetic example problem has demonstrated its applicability in practical energy-water nexus management. Optimal solutions for electricity generation, fuel supply, water supply including groundwater, surface water and recycled water, capacity expansion of the power plants, and GHG emission control are generated. In conclusion, these analyses are capable of helping decision makers or stakeholders adjust their tolerances to make informed decisions to achieve the overall satisfaction of energy-water nexus management where bi-level sequential decision making process is involved.« less

Water resources data, Montana, water year 2005: Volume 2. Yellowstone and upper Columbia River basins and ground-water levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berkas, Wayne R.; White, Melvin K.; Ladd, Patricia B.; Bailey, Fred A.; Dodge, Kent A.

2005-01-01

Water resources data for Montana for the 2004 water year, volumes 1 and 2, consist of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage, contents, and water quality of lakes and reservoirs; and water levels in wells. This volume contains discharge records for 119 streamflow-gaging stations; stage or content records for 21 lakes and reservoirs; and water-quality records for 69 streamflow stations (17 ungaged), and 3 lake sites; water-level records for 51 observation wells; and precipitation and water-quality records for 2 atmospheric-deposition stations. Additional water year 2004 data collected at crest-stage gage and miscellaneous-measurement sites were collected but are not published in this report. These data are stored within the District office files in Helena and are available on request. These data represent part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Montana.

Deformation analysis and prediction of bank protection structure with river level fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Rui; Xing, Yixuan

2017-04-01

Bank structure is an important barrier to maintain the safety of the embankment. The deformation of bank protection structure is not only affected by soil pressure caused by the excavation of the riverway, but also by the water pressure caused river water level fluctuations. Thus, it is necessary to establish a coupled soil-water model to analyze the deformation of bank structure. Based on Druck-Prager failure criteria and groundwater seepage theory, a numerical model of bank protection structure with consideration of the pore water pressure of soil mass is established. According to the measured river level data with seasonal fluctuating, numerical analysis of the deformation of bank protection structure is implemented. The simulation results show that the river water level fluctuation has clear influence on the maximum lateral displacement of the pile. Meanwhile, the distribution of plastic zone is related to the depth of groundwater level. Finally, according to the river water level data of the recent ten years, we analyze the deformation of the bank structure under extreme river level. The result shows that, compared with the scenario of extreme high river level, the horizontal displacement of bank protection structure is larger (up to 65mm) under extreme low river level, which is a potential risk to the embankment. Reference Schweiger H F. On the use of drucker-prager failure criteria for earth pressure problems[J]. Computers and Geotechnics, 1994, 16(3): 223-246. DING Yong-chun，CHENG Ze-kun. Numerical study on performance of waterfront excavation[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering，2013，35(2):515-521. Wu L M, Wang Z Q. Three gorges reservoir water level fluctuation influents on the stability of the slope[J]. Advanced Materials Research. Trans Tech Publications, 2013, 739: 283-286.

Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilcox, Douglas A.; Thompson, Todd A.; Booth, Robert K.; Nicholas, J.R.

2007-01-01

In this report, we present recorded and reconstructed (pre-historical) changes in water levels in the Great Lakes, relate them to climate changes of the past, and highlight major water-availability implications for storage, coastal ecosystems, and human activities. 'Water availability,' as conceptualized herein, includes a recognition that water must be available for human and natural uses, but the balancing of how much should be set aside for which use is not discussed. The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth's surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site. The reconstructed water-level history of Lake Michigan-Huron over the past 4,700 years shows three major high phases from 2,300 to 3,300, 1,100 to 2,000, and 0 to 800

Comparison of 1972 and 1996 water levels in the Goleta central ground-water subbasin, Santa Barbara County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaehler, Charles A.; Pratt, David A.; Paybins, Katherine S.

1997-01-01

Ground-water levels for 1996 were compared with 1972 water levels to determine if a "drought buffer" currently exists. The drought buffer was defined previously, in a litigated settlement involving the Goleta Water District, as the 1972 water level in the Central ground-water subbasin. To make this deter mination, a network of 15 well sites was selected, water levels were measured monthly from April through December 1996, and the 1996 water-level data were compared with1972 data. The study was done in cooperation with the Goleta Water District. The 1972-1996 water-level-altitude changes for corresponding months of the comparison years were averaged for each network well. These averaged changes ranged from a rise of 9.4 ft for well 2N2 to a decline of 45.0 ft for well 8K8. The results of the comparison indicate a rise in water level at 1 site (well 2N2) and a decline at 14 sites. The mean of the 14 negative average values was a decline of 24.0 ft. The altitude of the bottom of well 2N2 was higher than the bottom altitudes at the other network sites, and this well is located a few feet from a fault that acts as a hydrologic barrier. The results of the water-level comparison for the Central subbasin were influenced to some unknown degree by the areal distribution of the set of wells selected for the network and the vertical dis tribution of the perforated intervals of the wells. For this reason, the mean water-level change--a decline of 21.8 ft--calculated from the averages of the month-to-month changes for the 15 network sites, should be used with caution. In addition, the number of usable individual monthly comparison measurements available for an individual site ranged from one to nine, and averaged six. Therefore, a weighted mean of the monthly averages was calculated on the basis of the number of comparison measurements available for each site. The weighted mean is a decline of 20.9 ft. All Central subbasin wells that were idle (that is, were not being pumped

Water-level altitudes 2005 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2004 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Houston, Natalie A.

2005-01-01

This report is one in an annual series of reports that depicts water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The Houston-Galveston region comprises Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Waller, and Montgomery Counties and adjacent parts of Brazoria, Grimes, Walker, San Jacinto, Liberty, and Chambers Counties. The report was prepared in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District, the City of Houston, the Fort Bend Subsidence District, and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District. For the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, maps show approximate water-level altitudes in 2005, water-level changes from 2004 to 2005, and approximate water-level changes from 2000 to 2005, from 1990 to 2005, and from 1977 to 2005 (figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10). For the Jasper aquifer, maps show approximate water-level altitudes in 2005 and water-level changes from 2004 to 2005 and 2000 to 2005 (figs. 11, 12, and 13). The report also contains a map showing borehole extensometer (well equipped with compaction monitor) site locations (fig. 14) and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at these sites from 1973 or later to 2004 (fig. 15).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published annual reports of water-level altitudes and water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region since 1979; and annual reports of same for the Fort Bend subregion (Fort Bend County and adjacent areas) since 1990. The USGS published its first water-level-altitude map for the Jasper aquifer in the greater Houston area (primarily Montgomery County) in 2001. The 2005 water-level-altitude and water-level-change maps for the three aquifers are included in this report.

Water-level altitudes 2006 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and compaction 1973-2005 in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Houston, Natalie A.; Brown, Dexter W.

2006-01-01

This report is one in an annual series of reports that depicts water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, and compaction in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. The Houston-Galveston region comprises Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Waller, and Montgomery Counties and adjacent parts of Brazoria, Grimes, Walker, San Jacinto, Liberty, and Chambers Counties. The report was prepared in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District, the City of Houston, the Fort Bend Subsidence District, and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District. For the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, maps show approximate water-level altitudes in 2006, water-level changes from 2005 to 2006, and approximate water-level changes from 2001 to 2006, from 1990 to 2006, and from 1977 to 2006 (figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10). For the Jasper aquifer, maps show approximate water-level altitudes in 2006 and water-level changes from 2005 to 2006 and 2000 to 2006 (figs. 11, 12, 13). The report also contains a map showing borehole extensometer (well equipped with compaction monitor) site locations (fig. 14) and graphs showing measured compaction of subsurface material at these sites from 1973 or later to 2005 (fig. 15).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published annual reports of water-level altitudes and water-level changes for the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region since 1979; and annual reports of same for the Fort Bend subregion (Fort Bend County and adjacent areas) since 1990. The USGS published its first water-level-altitude map for the Jasper aquifer in the greater Houston area (primarily Montgomery County) in 2001. The 2006 water-level-altitude and water-level-change maps for the three aquifers are included in this report.

PREDICTING SUSTAINABLE GROUND WATER TO CONSTRUCTED RIPARIAN WETLANDS: SHAKER TRACE, OHIO, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Water isotopy is introduced as a best management practice for the prediction of sustained ground water inflows to prospective constructed wetlands. A primer and application of the stable isotopes, ¹⁸O and ²H, are discussed for riparian wetland restoration ar...

Accurate prediction of complex free surface flow around a high speed craft using a single-phase level set method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broglia, Riccardo; Durante, Danilo

2017-11-01

This paper focuses on the analysis of a challenging free surface flow problem involving a surface vessel moving at high speeds, or planing. The investigation is performed using a general purpose high Reynolds free surface solver developed at CNR-INSEAN. The methodology is based on a second order finite volume discretization of the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (Di Mascio et al. in A second order Godunov—type scheme for naval hydrodynamics, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 253-261, 2001; Proceedings of 16th international offshore and polar engineering conference, San Francisco, CA, USA, 2006; J Mar Sci Technol 14:19-29, 2009); air/water interface dynamics is accurately modeled by a non standard level set approach (Di Mascio et al. in Comput Fluids 36(5):868-886, 2007a), known as the single-phase level set method. In this algorithm the governing equations are solved only in the water phase, whereas the numerical domain in the air phase is used for a suitable extension of the fluid dynamic variables. The level set function is used to track the free surface evolution; dynamic boundary conditions are enforced directly on the interface. This approach allows to accurately predict the evolution of the free surface even in the presence of violent breaking waves phenomena, maintaining the interface sharp, without any need to smear out the fluid properties across the two phases. This paper is aimed at the prediction of the complex free-surface flow field generated by a deep-V planing boat at medium and high Froude numbers (from 0.6 up to 1.2). In the present work, the planing hull is treated as a two-degree-of-freedom rigid object. Flow field is characterized by the presence of thin water sheets, several energetic breaking waves and plungings. The computational results include convergence of the trim angle, sinkage and resistance under grid refinement; high-quality experimental data are used for the purposes of validation, allowing to

A Mass-balance nitrate model for predicting the effects of land use on ground-water quality in municipal wellhead-protection areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frimpter, M.H.; Donohue, J.J.; Rapacz, M.V.; Beye, H.G.

1990-01-01

A mass-balance accounting model can be used to guide the management of septic systems and fertilizers to control the degradation of groundwater quality in zones of an aquifer that contributes water to public supply wells. The nitrate nitrogen concentration of the mixture in the well can be predicted for steady-state conditions by calculating the concentration that results from the total weight of nitrogen and total volume of water entering the zone of contribution to the well. These calculations will allow water-quality managers to predict the nitrate concentrations that would be produced by different types and levels of development, and to plan development accordingly. Computations for different development schemes provide a technical basis for planners and managers to compare water quality effects and to select alternatives that limit nitrate concentration in wells. Appendix A contains tables of nitrate loads and water volumes from common sources for use with the accounting model. Appendix B describes the preparation of a spreadsheet for the nitrate loading calculations with a software package generally available for desktop computers. (USGS)

Responses of Water and Salt Parameters to Groundwater Levels for Soil Columns Planted with Tamarix chinensis

PubMed Central

Xia, Jiangbao; Zhao, Ximei; Chen, Yinping; Fang, Ying; Zhao, Ziguo

2016-01-01

Groundwater is the main water resource for plant growth and development in the saline soil of the Yellow River Delta in China. To investigate the variabilities and distributions of soil water and salt contents at various groundwater level (GL), soil columns with planting Tamarix chinensis Lour were established at six different GL. The results demonstrated the following: With increasing GL, the relative soil water content (RWC) declined significantly, whereas the salt content (SC) and absolute soil solution concentration (CS) decreased after the initial increase in the different soil profiles. A GL of 1.2 m was the turning point for variations in the soil water and salt contents, and it represented the highest GL that could maintain the soil surface moist within the soil columns. Both the SC and CS reached the maximum levels in these different soil profiles at a GL of 1.2 m. With the raise of soil depth, the RWC increased significantly, whereas the SC increased after an initial decrease. The mean SC values reached 0.96% in the top soil layer; however, the rates at which the CS and RWC decreased with the GL were significantly reduced. The RWC and SC presented the greatest variations at the medium (0.9–1.2 m) and shallow water levels (0.6 m) respectively, whereas the CS presented the greatest variation at the deep water level (1.5–1.8 m).The RWC, SC and CS in the soil columns were all closely related to the GL. However, the correlations among the parameters varied greatly within different soil profiles, and the most accurate predictions of the GL were derived from the RWC in the shallow soil layer or the SC in the top soil layer. A GL at 1.5–1.8 m was moderate for planting T. chinensis seedlings under saline groundwater conditions. PMID:26730602

Effects of Irrigation, Drought, and Ground-Water Withdrawals on Ground-Water Levels in the Southern Lihue Basin, Kauai, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izuka, Scot K.

2006-01-01

A numerical ground-water-flow model was used to investigate the effects of irrigation on ground-water levels in the southern Lihue Basin, Kauai, Hawaii, and the relation between declining ground-water levels observed in the basin in the 1990s and early 2000s and concurrent drought, irrigation reduction, and changes in ground-water withdrawal. Results of steady-state model simulations indicate that changing from pre-development to 1981 irrigation and ground-water-withdrawal conditions could, given enough time for steady state to be achieved, raise ground-water levels in some areas of the southern Lihue Basin by as much as 200 feet, and that changing from 1981 to 1998 irrigation and ground-water-withdrawal conditions could lower ground-water levels in some areas by as much as 100 feet. Transient simulations combining drought, irrigation reduction, and changes in ground-water withdrawal show trends that correspond with those observed in measured water levels. Results of this study indicate that irrigation reduction was the primary cause of the observed decline in ground-water-levels. In contrast, ground-water withdrawal had a long-duration but small-magnitude effect, and drought had a widespread, high-magnitude but short-duration effect. Inasmuch as irrigation in the future is unlikely to return to the same levels as during the period of peak sugarcane agriculture, the decline in ground-water levels resulting from the reduction and ultimate end of sugarcane irrigation can be considered permanent. Assuming that irrigation does not return to the southern Lihue Basin and that, on average, normal rainfall persists and ground-water withdrawal remains at 1998 rates, model projections indicate that average ground-water levels in the Kilohana-Puhi area will continue to recover from the drought of 1998-2002 and eventually rise to within about 4 feet of the pre-drought conditions. Long-term climate trends, increases in ground-water withdrawal, or other factors not simulated in

Nitrates in drinking water and methemoglobin levels in pregnancy: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Manassaram, Deana M; Backer, Lorraine C; Messing, Rita; Fleming, Lora E; Luke, Barbara; Monteilh, Carolyn P

2010-10-14

Private water systems are more likely to have nitrate levels above the maximum contaminant level (MCL). Pregnant women are considered vulnerable to the effects of exposure to high levels of nitrates in drinking water due to their altered physiological states. The level of methemoglobin in the blood is the biomarker often used in research for assessing exposure to nitrates. The objective of this study was to assess methemoglobin levels and examine how various factors affected methemoglobin levels during pregnancy. We also examined whether differences in water use practices existed among pregnant women based on household drinking water source of private vs. public supply. A longitudinal study of 357 pregnant women was conducted. Longitudinal regression models were used to examine changes and predictors of the change in methemoglobin levels over the period of gestation. Pregnant women showed a decrease in methemoglobin levels with increasing gestation although <1% had levels above the physiologic normal of 2% methemoglobin, regardless of the source of their drinking water. The multivariable analyses did not show a statistically significant association between methemoglobin levels and the estimated nitrate intake from tap water among pregnant women around 36 weeks gestation (β = 0.046, p = 0.986). Four women had tap water nitrate levels above the MCL of 10 mg/L. At enrollment, a greater proportion of women who reported using water treatment devices were private wells users (66%) compared to public system users (46%) (p < 0.0001). Also, a greater proportion of private well users (27%) compared to public system users (13%) were using devices capable of removing nitrate from water (p < 0.0001). Pregnant women potentially exposed to nitrate levels primarily below the MCL for drinking water were unlikely to show methemoglobin levels above the physiologic normal. Water use practices such as the use of treatment devices to remove nitrates varied according to water source and

Nitrates in drinking water and methemoglobin levels in pregnancy: a longitudinal study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Private water systems are more likely to have nitrate levels above the maximum contaminant level (MCL). Pregnant women are considered vulnerable to the effects of exposure to high levels of nitrates in drinking water due to their altered physiological states. The level of methemoglobin in the blood is the biomarker often used in research for assessing exposure to nitrates. The objective of this study was to assess methemoglobin levels and examine how various factors affected methemoglobin levels during pregnancy. We also examined whether differences in water use practices existed among pregnant women based on household drinking water source of private vs. public supply. Methods A longitudinal study of 357 pregnant women was conducted. Longitudinal regression models were used to examine changes and predictors of the change in methemoglobin levels over the period of gestation. Results Pregnant women showed a decrease in methemoglobin levels with increasing gestation although <1% had levels above the physiologic normal of 2% methemoglobin, regardless of the source of their drinking water. The multivariable analyses did not show a statistically significant association between methemoglobin levels and the estimated nitrate intake from tap water among pregnant women around 36 weeks gestation (β = 0.046, p = 0.986). Four women had tap water nitrate levels above the MCL of 10 mg/L. At enrollment, a greater proportion of women who reported using water treatment devices were private wells users (66%) compared to public system users (46%) (p < 0.0001). Also, a greater proportion of private well users (27%) compared to public system users (13%) were using devices capable of removing nitrate from water (p < 0.0001). Conclusion Pregnant women potentially exposed to nitrate levels primarily below the MCL for drinking water were unlikely to show methemoglobin levels above the physiologic normal. Water use practices such as the use of treatment devices to remove

Transient response of Salix cuttings to changing water level regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorla, L.; Signarbieux, C.; Turberg, P.; Buttler, A.; Perona, P.

2015-03-01

Sustainable water management requires an understanding of the effects of flow regulation on riparian ecomorphological processes. We investigated the transient response of Salix viminalis by examining the effect of water-level regimes on its above-ground and below-ground biomass. Four sets of Salix cuttings, three juveniles (in the first growing season) and one mature (1 year old), were planted and initially grown under the same water-level regime for 1 month. We imposed three different water-level regime treatments representing natural variability, a seasonal trend with no peaks, and minimal flow (characteristic of hydropower) consisting of a constant water level and natural flood peaks. We measured sap flux, stem water potential, photosynthesis, growth parameters, and final root architecture. The mature cuttings were not affected by water table dynamics, but the juveniles displayed causal relationships between the changing water regime, plant growth, and root distribution during a 2 month transient period. For example, a 50% drop in mean sap flux corresponded with a -1.5 Mpa decrease in leaf water potential during the first day after the water regime was changed. In agreement with published field observations, the cuttings concentrated their roots close to the mean water table of the corresponding treatment, allowing survival under altered conditions and resilience to successive stress events. Juvenile development was strongly impacted by the minimum flow regime, leading to more than 60% reduction of both above-ground and below-ground biomass, with respect to the other treatments. Hence, we suggest avoiding minimum flow regimes where Salix restoration is prioritized.

Wii mote as hydrological sensor: observation of water level fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luxemburg, W.; Hut, R.; Weijs, S.; Hegnauer, M.

2009-12-01

The input device of the Nintendo Wii, the Wii-mote offers scientist a multitude of cheap, high quality sensors; ideal for proof of concept testing. For a specific application, i.e. the water level fluctuation in a floating evaporation pan the Wii-mote was tested as the observing device. It is shown that the controller can observe movements with high enough temporal and spatial resolution of up to 4 infrared LED’s to describe water level movements. Floating pans positioned in lakes and reservoirs better represent open water evaporation than evaporation pans installed on land. On the other hand performing water level measurements in a floating pan is more complicated due to movement of the pan and wave activities in the pan. The Wii-mote was mounted on the side of a standard class A-pan and a float was placed in the middle of the pan, with 4 LED’s on top moving along a fixed bar. The information that the Wii-mote wirelessly sends by blue tooth was captured on a laptop. With a MATLAB routine this data was converted into movement of the LED’s relatively to the controller. The observations show that wave activities are nicely captured with a typical spatial resolution smaller than 0.1 mm in our set-up and a temporal resolution of maximum 100 Hz. A frequency domain filter was applied to the observed datasets to obtain average water levels. In our laboratory setting the pan was placed in a large basin with a wave generator. A constant, but small, rate of water was added to the evaporation pan. The average pan levels from the filtered datasets showed systematically lower levels compared to the level without any wave activities. This is a typical effect of waves that occur in shallow basins. However, the added water with rates up to 5 mm/hour were clearly recognized in the filtered datasets which indicates that the Wii-mote is very well capable as a sensor for water level observations.

Validation of Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for low-volume forest roads

Treesearch

William Elliot; R. B. Foltz; Charlie Luce

1995-01-01

Erosion rates of recently graded nongravel forest roads were measured under rainfall simulation on five different soils. The erosion rates observed on 24 forest road erosion plots were compared with values predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model, Version 93.1. Hydraulic conductivity and soil erodibility values were predicted from methods...

Use of inexpensive pressure transducers for measuring water levels in wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeland, B.D.; Dowd, J.F.; Hardegree, W.S.

1997-01-01

Frequent measurement of below ground water levels at multiple locations is an important component of many wetland ecosystem studies. These measurements, however, are usually time consuming, labor intensive, and expensive. This paper describes a water-level sensor that is inexpensive and easy to construct. The sensor is placed below the expected low water level in a shallow well and, when connected to a datalogger, uses a pressure transducer to detect groundwater or surface water elevations. Details of pressure transducer theory, sensor construction, calibration, and examples of field installations are presented. Although the transducers must be individually calibrated, the sensors have a linear response to changing water levels (r2 ??? .999). Measurement errors resulting from temperature fluctuations are shown to be about 4 cm over a 35??C temperature range, but are minimal when the sensors are installed in groundwater wells where temperatures are less variable. Greater accuracy may be obtained by incorporating water temperature data into the initial calibration (0.14 cm error over a 35??C temperature range). Examples of the utility of these sensors in studies of groundwater/surface water interactions and the effects of water level fluctuations on tree growth are provided. ?? 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

The prediction of blood-tissue partitions, water-skin partitions and skin permeation for agrochemicals.

PubMed

Abraham, Michael H; Gola, Joelle M R; Ibrahim, Adam; Acree, William E; Liu, Xiangli

2014-07-01

There is considerable interest in the blood-tissue distribution of agrochemicals, and a number of researchers have developed experimental methods for in vitro distribution. These methods involve the determination of saline-blood and saline-tissue partitions; not only are they indirect, but they do not yield the required in vivo distribution. The authors set out equations for gas-tissue and blood-tissue distribution, for partition from water into skin and for permeation from water through human skin. Together with Abraham descriptors for the agrochemicals, these equations can be used to predict values for all of these processes. The present predictions compare favourably with experimental in vivo blood-tissue distribution where available. The predictions require no more than simple arithmetic. The present method represents a much easier and much more economic way of estimating blood-tissue partitions than the method that uses saline-blood and saline-tissue partitions. It has the added advantages of yielding the required in vivo partitions and being easily extended to the prediction of partition of agrochemicals from water into skin and permeation from water through skin. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Prediction of corrosion rates of water distribution pipelines according to aggressive corrosive water in Korea.

PubMed

Chung, W S; Yu, M J; Lee, H D

2004-01-01

The drinking water network serving Korea has been used for almost 100 years. Therefore, pipelines have suffered various degrees of deterioration due to aggressive environments. The pipe breaks were caused by in-external corrosion, water hammer, surface loading, etc. In this paper, we focused on describing corrosion status in water distribution pipes in Korea and reviewing some methods to predict corrosion rates. Results indicate that corrosive water of lakes was more aggressive than river water and the winter was more aggressive compared to other seasons. The roughness growth rates of Dongbok lake showed 0.23 mm/year. The high variation of corrosion rates is controlled by the aging pipes and smaller diameter. Also the phenolphthalein test on a cementitious core of cement mortar lined ductile cast iron pipe indicated the pipes over 15 years old had lost 50-100% of their lime active cross sectional area.

Ground-water levels in Huron County, Michigan, 2004-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, T.L.; Crowley, S.L.; Blumer, S.P.

2006-01-01

In 1990, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a study of the hydrogeology of Huron County, Michigan (Sweat, 1991). In 1993, Huron County and the USGS entered into a continuing agreement to measure water levels at selected wells throughout Huron County. As part of the agreement, USGS has operated four continuous water-level recorders, installed from 1988 to 1991 on wells in Bingham, Fairhaven, Grant, and Lake Townships (fig. 1) and summarized the data collected in an annual or bi-annual report. The agreement was altered in 2003, and beginning January 1, 2004, only the wells in Fairhaven and Lake Townships retained continuous waterlevel recorders, while the wells in Grant and Bingham Townships reverted primarily to periodic or quarterly measurement status. USGS also has provided training for County or Huron Conservation District personnel to measure the water level, on a quarterly basis, in 25 wells. USGS personnel regularly accompany County or Huron Conservation District personnel to provide a quality assurance/quality control check of all measurements being made. Water-level data collected from the 25 periodically or quarterly-measured wells is summarized in an annual or bi-annual report. In 1998, the USGS also completed a temporal and spatial analysis of the monitoring well network in Huron County (Holtschlag and Sweat, 1998). The altitude of Lake Huron and precipitation are good indicators of general climatic conditions and, therefore, provide an environmental context for ground-water levels in Huron County. Figure 2 shows the mean-monthly water-level altitude of Lake Huron, averaged from measurements made by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at sites near Essexville or Harbor Beach, or both (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2003-05), and monthly precipitation measured in Bad Axe (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2003-05). In March 2003, a new low-water level for the period from 1991 through 2005 was measured in Lake Huron

A model to predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Catalina Segura; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Yang Zhang

2014-01-01

Stream water temperature (ts) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, ts records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict ts at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating...

Assessing the skill of seasonal meteorological forecast products for predicting droughts and water scarcity in highly regulated basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squeri, Marika; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Marcos-Garcia, Patricia; Macian-Sorribes, Hector

2017-04-01

Drought and water scarcity are important issues in Southern Europe and many predictions suggest that their frequency and severity will increase over the next years, potentially leading to negative environmental and socio-economic impacts. This work focuses on the Jucar river basin, located in the hinterland of Valencia (Eastern Spain), which is historically affected by long and severe dry periods that negatively impact several economic sectors, with irrigated agriculture representing the main consumptive demand in the basin (79%). Monitoring drought and water scarcity is crucial to activate timely drought management strategies in the basin. However, most traditional drought indexes fail in detecting critical events due to the large presence of human regulation supporting the irrigated agriculture. Over the last 20 years, a sophisticated drought monitoring system has been set up to properly capture the status of the catchment by means of the state index, a weighted linear combination of twelve indicators that depends on observations of precipitation, streamflow, reservoirs' storages and groundwater levels in representative locations at the basin. In this work, we explore the possibility of predicting the state index, which is currently used only as a monitoring tool, in order to prompt anticipatory actions before the drought/water scarcity event starts. In particular, we test the forecasting skill of retrospective seasonal meteorological predictions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4. The 7-months lead time of these products allows predicting in February the values of the state index until September, thus covering the entire agricultural season. Preliminary results suggest that the Sys4-ECMWF products are skillful in predicting the state index, potentially supporting the design of anticipatory drought management actions.

Drinking cholera: salinity levels and palatability of drinking water in coastal Bangladesh.

PubMed

Grant, Stephen Lawrence; Tamason, Charlotte Crim; Hoque, Bilqis Amin; Jensen, Peter Kjaer Mackie

2015-04-01

To measure the salinity levels of common water sources in coastal Bangladesh and explore perceptions of water palatability among the local population to investigate the plausibility of linking cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh with ingestion of saline-rich cholera-infected river water. Hundred participants took part in a taste-testing experiment of water with varying levels of salinity. Salinity measurements were taken of both drinking and non-drinking water sources. Informal group discussions were conducted to gain an in-depth understanding of water sources and water uses. Salinity levels of non-drinking water sources suggest that the conditions for Vibrio cholerae survival exist 7-8 days within the local aquatic environment. However, 96% of participants in the taste-testing experiment reported that they would never drink water with salinity levels that would be conducive to V. cholerae survival. Furthermore, salinity levels of participant's drinking water sources were all well below the levels required for optimal survival of V. cholerae. Respondents explained that they preferred less salty and more aesthetically pleasing drinking water. Theoretically, V. cholerae can survive in the river systems in Bangladesh; however, water sources which have been contaminated with river water are avoided as potential drinking water sources. Furthermore, there are no physical connecting points between the river system and drinking water sources among the study population, indicating that the primary driver for cholera cases in Bangladesh is likely not through the contamination of saline-rich river water into drinking water sources. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Water-level and recoverable water in storage changes, High Plains aquifer, predevelopment to 2015 and 2013–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, Virginia L.

2017-06-01

The High Plains aquifer underlies 111.8 million acres (about 175,000 square miles) in parts of eight States—Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Water-level declines began in parts of the High Plains aquifer soon after the beginning of substantial irrigation with groundwater in the aquifer area (about 1950). This report presents water-level changes and change in recoverable water in storage in the High Plains aquifer from predevelopment (about 1950) to 2015 and from 2013 to 2015.The methods to calculate area-weighted, average water-level changes; change in recoverable water in storage; and total recoverable water in storage used geospatial data layers organized as rasters with a cell size of 500 meters by 500 meters, which is an area of about 62 acres. Raster datasets of water-level changes are provided for other uses.Water-level changes from predevelopment to 2015, by well, ranged from a rise of 84 feet to a decline of 234 feet. Water-level changes from 2013 to 2015, by well, ranged from a rise of 24 feet to a decline of 33 feet. The area-weighted, average water-level changes in the aquifer were an overall decline of 15.8 feet from predevelopment to 2015 and a decline of 0.6 feet from 2013 to 2015. Total recoverable water in storage in the aquifer in 2015 was about 2.91 billion acre-feet, which was a decline of about 273.2 million acre-feet since predevelopment and a decline of 10.7 million acre-feet from 2013 to 2015.

Indirect effects of climate change on zinc cycling in sediments: The role of changing water levels.

PubMed

Nedrich, Sara M; Burton, G Allen

2017-09-01

Increased variability in lake and river water levels associated with changing climate could impact the fate and effects of metals in redox-sensitive sediments through the alteration of microbial communities and of acid-base and redox chemistry. The objective of the present study was to determine the influence of water level fluctuation on metal speciation in porewater and predict environmental risk to high-carbonate systems. Using experimental microcosms with sediments collected from 4 metal-contaminated coastal freshwater wetlands in Michigan, USA, we conducted water level fluctuation experiments. Porewater and sediment metals (Ca, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn) and important metal binding phases (iron-oxide speciation, acid-volatile sulfide) were quantified. In a short-term drying (seiche) experiment, there were decreases in all porewater metals after inundation of saturated sediments. During a drought experiment, re-inundation of oxidized sediments increased porewater Cu, Zn, Mg, Ca for most sites. Porewater Zn increased after inundation to levels exceeding the US Environmental Protection Agency threshold for chronic toxicity. These data show that the dissolution of metal carbonates and metal sulfates contributes to metal release after re-flooding and indicate that we might expect increased ecological risk to organisms present in drought-sensitive regions where altered hydroperiods are likely to increase metal bioavailability. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2456-2464. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Politics of innovation in multi-level water governance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, Katherine A.; Coombes, Peter J.; White, Ian

2014-11-01

Innovations are being proposed in many countries in order to support change towards more sustainable and water secure futures. However, the extent to which they can be implemented is subject to complex politics and powerful coalitions across multi-level governance systems and scales of interest. Exactly how innovation uptake can be best facilitated or blocked in these complex systems is thus a matter of important practical and research interest in water cycle management. From intervention research studies in Australia, China and Bulgaria, this paper seeks to describe and analyse the behind-the-scenes struggles and coalition-building that occurs between water utility providers, private companies, experts, communities and all levels of government in an effort to support or block specific innovations. The research findings suggest that in order to ensure successful passage of the proposed innovations, champions for it are required from at least two administrative levels, including one with innovation implementation capacity, as part of a larger supportive coalition. Higher governance levels can play an important enabling role in facilitating the passage of certain types of innovations that may be in competition with currently entrenched systems of water management. Due to a range of natural biases, experts on certain innovations and disciplines may form part of supporting or blocking coalitions but their evaluations of worth for water system sustainability and security are likely to be subject to competing claims based on different values and expertise, so may not necessarily be of use in resolving questions of "best courses of action". This remains a political values-based decision to be negotiated through the receiving multi-level water governance system.

Winter Thaws Can Raise Ground Water Levels in Driftless Area

Treesearch

Richard S. Sartz

1967-01-01

Springflow and ground water levels both rose with winter thaws, even when the ground was frozen. A high soil water content suggests that water moved to the water table through a continuous column of soil water rather than as a wetting front

Predicting cyanobacterial abundance, microcystin, and geosmin in a eutrophic drinking-water reservoir using a 14-year dataset

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Ted D.; Graham, Jennifer L.

2017-01-01

Cyanobacterial blooms degrade water quality in drinking water supply reservoirs by producing toxic and taste-and-odor causing secondary metabolites, which ultimately cause public health concerns and lead to increased treatment costs for water utilities. There have been numerous attempts to create models that predict cyanobacteria and their secondary metabolites, most using linear models; however, linear models are limited by assumptions about the data and have had limited success as predictive tools. Thus, lake and reservoir managers need improved modeling techniques that can accurately predict large bloom events that have the highest impact on recreational activities and drinking-water treatment processes. In this study, we compared 12 unique linear and nonlinear regression modeling techniques to predict cyanobacterial abundance and the cyanobacterial secondary metabolites microcystin and geosmin using 14 years of physiochemical water quality data collected from Cheney Reservoir, Kansas. Support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), boosted tree (BT), and Cubist modeling techniques were the most predictive of the compared modeling approaches. SVM, RF, and BT modeling techniques were able to successfully predict cyanobacterial abundance, microcystin, and geosmin concentrations <60,000 cells/mL, 2.5 µg/L, and 20 ng/L, respectively. Only Cubist modeling predicted maxima concentrations of cyanobacteria and geosmin; no modeling technique was able to predict maxima microcystin concentrations. Because maxima concentrations are a primary concern for lake and reservoir managers, Cubist modeling may help predict the largest and most noxious concentrations of cyanobacteria and their secondary metabolites.

Consumer factors predicting level of treatment response to illness management and recovery.

PubMed

White, Dominique A; McGuire, Alan B; Luther, Lauren; Anderson, Adrienne I; Phalen, Peter; McGrew, John H

2017-12-01

This study aims to identify consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response to illness management and recovery (IMR) to target the appropriate consumers and aid psychiatric rehabilitation settings in developing intervention adaptations. Secondary analyses from a multisite study of IMR were conducted. Self-report data from consumer participants of the parent study (n = 236) were analyzed for the current study. Consumers completed prepost surveys assessing illness management, coping, goal-related hope, social support, medication adherence, and working alliance. Correlations and multiple regression analyses were run to identify self-report variables that predicted level of treatment response to IMR. Analyses revealed that goal-related hope significantly predicted level of improved illness self-management, F(1, 164) = 10.93, p < .001, R2 = .248, R2 change = .05. Additionally, we found that higher levels of maladaptive coping at baseline were predictive of higher levels of adaptive coping at follow-up, F(2, 180) = 5.29, p < .02, R2 = .38, R2 change = .02. Evidence did not support additional predictors. Previously, consumer-level predictors of level of treatment response have not been explored for IMR. Although 2 significant predictors were identified, study findings suggest more work is needed. Future research is needed to identify additional consumer-level factors predictive of IMR treatment response in order to identify who would benefit most from this treatment program. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Prediction of unsaturated flow and water backfill during infiltration in layered soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Guotao; Zhu, Jianting

2018-02-01

We develop a new analytical infiltration model to determine water flow dynamics around layer interfaces during infiltration process in layered soils. The model mainly involves the analytical solutions to quadratic equations to determine the flux rates around the interfaces. Active water content profile behind the wetting front is developed based on the solution of steady state flow to dynamically update active parameters in sharp wetting front infiltration equations and to predict unsaturated flow in coarse layers before the front reaches an impeding fine layer. The effect of water backfill to saturate the coarse layers after the wetting front encounters the impeding fine layer is analytically expressed based on the active water content profiles. Comparison to the numerical solutions of the Richards equation shows that the new model can well capture water dynamics in relation to the arrangement of soil layers. The steady state active water content profile can be used to predict the saturation state of all layers when the wetting front first passes through these layers during the unsteady infiltration process. Water backfill effect may occur when the unsaturated wetting front encounters a fine layer underlying a coarse layer. Sensitivity analysis shows that saturated hydraulic conductivity is the parameter dictating the occurrence of unsaturated flow and water backfill and can be used to represent the coarseness of soil layers. Water backfill effect occurs in coarse layers between upper and lower fine layers when the lower layer is not significantly coarser than the upper layer.

Pragmatic hydraulic theory predicts stomatal responses to climatic water deficits.

PubMed

Sperry, John S; Wang, Yujie; Wolfe, Brett T; Mackay, D Scott; Anderegg, William R L; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T

2016-11-01

Ecosystem models have difficulty predicting plant drought responses, partially from uncertainty in the stomatal response to water deficits in soil and atmosphere. We evaluate a 'supply-demand' theory for water-limited stomatal behavior that avoids the typical scaffold of empirical response functions. The premise is that canopy water demand is regulated in proportion to threat to supply posed by xylem cavitation and soil drying. The theory was implemented in a trait-based soil-plant-atmosphere model. The model predicted canopy transpiration (E), canopy diffusive conductance (G), and canopy xylem pressure (P canopy ) from soil water potential (P soil ) and vapor pressure deficit (D). Modeled responses to D and P soil were consistent with empirical response functions, but controlling parameters were hydraulic traits rather than coefficients. Maximum hydraulic and diffusive conductances and vulnerability to loss in hydraulic conductance dictated stomatal sensitivity and hence the iso- to anisohydric spectrum of regulation. The model matched wide fluctuations in G and P canopy across nine data sets from seasonally dry tropical forest and piñon-juniper woodland with < 26% mean error. Promising initial performance suggests the theory could be useful in improving ecosystem models. Better understanding of the variation in hydraulic properties along the root-stem-leaf continuum will simplify parameterization. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Water Levels In Major Artesian Aquifers Of The New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosman, Robert; Lacombe, Pierre J.; Storck, Donald A.

1995-01-01

Water levels in 1,251 wells in the New Jersey Coastal Plain, Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, and Kent and New Castle Counties, Delaware, were measured from October 1988 to February 1989 and compared with 1,071 water levels measured from September 1983 to May 1984. Water levels in 916 of the wells measured in the 1983 study were remeasured in the 1988 study. Alternate wells were selected to replace wells used in 1983 that were inaccessible at the time of the water-level measurements in 1988 or had been destroyed. New well sites were added in strategic locations to increase coverage where possible. Large cones of depression have formed or expanded in the nine major artesian aquifers that underlie the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Water levels are shown on nine potentiometric-surface maps. Hydrographs for observation wells typically show water-level declines for 1983, through 1989. In the confined Cohansey aquifer, the lowest water level, 20 feet below sea level, was measured in a well located at Cape May City Water Department, Cape May County. Water levels in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand declined as much as 21 feet at Ventnor, Atlantic County, over the 6-year period from the 1983 study to this study for 1988. Water levels in the Piney Point aquifer were as low as 56 feet below sea level at Seaside Park, Ocean County; 45 feet below sea level in southern Cumberland County; and 28 feet below sea level at Margate, Atlantic County. Water levels in the Vincentown aquifer did not change over the 6-year period. The lowest water levels in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and the Englishtown aquifer system were 218 feet and 256 feet below sea level, respectively. Large cones of depression in the Potomac- Raritan-Magothy aquifer system are centered in the Camden County area and the Middlesex and Monmouth County area. Water levels declined as much as 46 feet in these areas over the 6-year period.

Use of Linear Prediction Uncertainty Analysis to Guide Conditioning of Models Simulating Surface-Water/Groundwater Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; White, J.; Doherty, J.

2011-12-01

Linear prediction uncertainty analysis in a Bayesian framework was applied to guide the conditioning of an integrated surface water/groundwater model that will be used to predict the effects of groundwater withdrawals on surface-water and groundwater flows. Linear prediction uncertainty analysis is an effective approach for identifying (1) raw and processed data most effective for model conditioning prior to inversion, (2) specific observations and periods of time critically sensitive to specific predictions, and (3) additional observation data that would reduce model uncertainty relative to specific predictions. We present results for a two-dimensional groundwater model of a 2,186 km2 area of the Biscayne aquifer in south Florida implicitly coupled to a surface-water routing model of the actively managed canal system. The model domain includes 5 municipal well fields withdrawing more than 1 Mm3/day and 17 operable surface-water control structures that control freshwater releases from the Everglades and freshwater discharges to Biscayne Bay. More than 10 years of daily observation data from 35 groundwater wells and 24 surface water gages are available to condition model parameters. A dense parameterization was used to fully characterize the contribution of the inversion null space to predictive uncertainty and included bias-correction parameters. This approach allows better resolution of the boundary between the inversion null space and solution space. Bias-correction parameters (e.g., rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and structure flow multipliers) absorb information that is present in structural noise that may otherwise contaminate the estimation of more physically-based model parameters. This allows greater precision in predictions that are entirely solution-space dependent, and reduces the propensity for bias in predictions that are not. Results show that application of this analysis is an effective means of identifying those surface-water and

Summary of the Ground-Water-Level Hydrologic Conditions in New Jersey 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Walter; Pope, Daryll

2007-01-01

Ground water is one of the Nation's most important natural resources. It provides about 40 percent of our Nation's public water supply. Currently, nearly one-half of New Jersey's drinking-water is supplied by over 300,000 wells that serve more than 4.3 million people (John P. Nawyn, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2007). New Jersey's population is projected to grow by more than a million people by 2030 (U.S. Census Bureau, accessed March 2, 2006, at http://www.census.gov). As demand for water increases, managing the development and use of the ground-water resource so that the supply can be maintained for an indefinite time without causing unacceptable environmental, economic, or social consequences is of paramount importance. This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) New Jersey Water Science Center Observation Well Networks. Record low ground-water levels during water year 2006 (October 1, 2005 to September 30, 2006) are listed, and water levels in six selected water-table observation wells and three selected confined wells are shown in hydrographs. The report describes the trends in water levels in various confined aquifers in southern New Jersey and in water-table and fracture rock aquifers throughout the State. Web site addresses to access the data also are included. The USGS has operated a network of observation wells in New Jersey since 1923 for the purpose of monitoring ground-water-level changes throughout the State. Long-term systematic measurement of water levels in observation wells provides the data needed to evaluate changes in the ground-water resource over time. Records of ground-water levels are used to evaluate the effects of climate changes and water-supply development, to develop ground-water models, and to forecast trends.

Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.; Ma, Liwang; Green, Christopher T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Jaynes, Dan B.

2011-01-01

This chapter presents guidelines for autocalibration of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) by inverse modeling using PEST parameter estimation software (Doherty, 2010). Two sites with diverse climate and management were considered for simulation of N losses by leaching and in drain flow: an almond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, California and the Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, which is predominantly in corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation. Inverse modeling provides an objective statistical basis for calibration that involves simultaneous adjustment of model parameters and yields parameter confidence intervals and sensitivities. We describe operation of PEST in both parameter estimation and predictive analysis modes. The goal of parameter estimation is to identify a unique set of parameters that minimize a weighted least squares objective function, and the goal of predictive analysis is to construct a nonlinear confidence interval for a prediction of interest by finding a set of parameters that maximizes or minimizes the prediction while maintaining the model in a calibrated state. We also describe PEST utilities (PAR2PAR, TSPROC) for maintaining ordered relations among model parameters (e.g., soil root growth factor) and for post-processing of RZWQM2 outputs representing different cropping practices at the Iowa site. Inverse modeling provided reasonable fits to observed water and N fluxes and directly benefitted the modeling through: (i) simultaneous adjustment of multiple parameters versus one-at-a-time adjustment in manual approaches; (ii) clear indication by convergence criteria of when calibration is complete; (iii) straightforward detection of nonunique and insensitive parameters, which can affect the stability of PEST and RZWQM2; and (iv) generation of confidence intervals for uncertainty analysis of parameters and model predictions. Composite scaled sensitivities, which

Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters Robert F. Chen Environmental , Earth and Ocean Sciences...G. Bernard Gardner Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of Massachusetts Boston 100 Morrissey Boulevard Boston, MA 02125-3393...phone: (617)287-7451 fax: (617)287-7474 email: bernie.gardner@umb.edu Yong Tian Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of

Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters Robert F. Chen Environmental , Earth and Ocean Sciences...G. Bernard Gardner Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of Massachusetts Boston 100 Morrissey Boulevard Boston, MA 02125-3393...phone: (617)287-7451 fax: (617)287-7474 email: bernie.gardner@umb.edu Yong Tian Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of

Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

Predicting Chromophoric Dissolved Organic Matter Distributions in Coastal Waters Robert F. Chen Environmental , Earth and Ocean...umb.edu G. Bernard Gardner Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences University of Massachusetts Boston 100 Morrissey Boulevard Boston, MA...02125-3393 phone: (617) 287-7451 fax: (617) 287-7474 email: bernie.gardner@umb.edu Yong Tian Environmental , Coastal and Ocean Sciences

Intermolecular potentials and the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shvab, I.; Sadus, Richard J., E-mail: rsadus@swin.edu.au

2013-11-21

The ability of intermolecular potentials to correctly predict the thermodynamic properties of liquid water at a density of 0.998 g/cm{sup 3} for a wide range of temperatures (298–650 K) and pressures (0.1–700 MPa) is investigated. Molecular dynamics simulations are reported for the pressure, thermal pressure coefficient, thermal expansion coefficient, isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities, isobaric and isochoric heat capacities, and Joule-Thomson coefficient of liquid water using the non-polarizable SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials. The results are compared with both experiment data and results obtained from the ab initio-based Matsuoka-Clementi-Yoshimine non-additive (MCYna) [J. Li, Z. Zhou, and R. J. Sadus, J. Chem. Phys.more » 127, 154509 (2007)] potential, which includes polarization contributions. The data clearly indicate that both the SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials are only in qualitative agreement with experiment, whereas the polarizable MCYna potential predicts some properties within experimental uncertainty. This highlights the importance of polarizability for the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water, particularly at temperatures beyond 298 K.« less

Water levels of the Ozark aquifer in northern Arkansas, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schrader, Tony P.

2015-07-13

Nine hydrographs were selected as representative of the water-level conditions in their respective counties. Wells in Fulton, Izard, and Newton Counties (station names 20N08W27ABD1, 18N09W15BCB1, and 16N21W34ABC1, respectively) have water levels that are within the usual range of values for their respective counties. Wells in Boone, Marion, and Washington Counties (station names 18N19W19BCC1, 19N15W20ACC1, and 16N32W09ABD1, respectively) have water levels that have recently declined or are declining for the period of record. Wells in Benton, Carroll, and Sharp Counties (station names 19N29W07DAA1, 21N26W17BCC1, and 15N05W06DDD1, respectively) have water levels that have been rising recently.

Growth and food consumption by tiger muskellunge: Effects of temperature and ration level on bioenergetic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chipps, S.R.; Einfalt, L.M.; Wahl, David H.

2000-01-01

We measured growth of age-0 tiger muskellunge as a function of ration size (25, 50, 75, and 100% C(max))and water temperature (7.5-25??C) and compared experimental results with those predicted from a bioenergetic model. Discrepancies between actual and predicted values varied appreciably with water temperature and growth rate. On average, model output overestimated winter consumption rates at 10 and 7.5??C by 113 to 328%, respectively, whereas model predictions in summer and autumn (20-25??C) were in better agreement with actual values (4 to 58%). We postulate that variation in model performance was related to seasonal changes in esocid metabolic rate, which were not accounted for in the bioenergetic model. Moreover, accuracy of model output varied with feeding and growth rate of tiger muskellunge. The model performed poorly for fish fed low rations compared with estimates based on fish fed ad libitum rations and was attributed, in part, to the influence of growth rate on the accuracy of bioenergetic predictions. Based on modeling simulations, we found that errors associated with bioenergetic parameters had more influence on model output when growth rate was low, which is consistent with our observations. In addition, reduced conversion efficiency at high ration levels may contribute to variable model performance, thereby implying that waste losses should be modeled as a function of ration size for esocids. Our findings support earlier field tests of the esocid bioenergetic model and indicate that food consumption is generally overestimated by the model, particularly in winter months and for fish exhibiting low feeding and growth rates.

An Empirical Approach to Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Stream Water Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, J. R.; Hawkins, C. P.

2014-12-01

Climate change may affect stream solute concentrations by three mechanisms: dilution associated with increased precipitation, evaporative concentration associated with increased temperature, and changes in solute inputs associated with changes in climate-driven weathering. We developed empirical models predicting base-flow water chemistry from watershed geology, soils, and climate for 1975 individual stream sites across the conterminous USA. We then predicted future solute concentrations (2065 and 2099) by applying down-scaled global climate model predictions to these models. The electrical conductivity model (EC, model R2 = 0.78) predicted mean increases in EC of 19 μS/cm by 2065 and 40 μS/cm by 2099. However predicted responses for individual streams ranged from a 43% decrease to a 4x increase. Streams with the greatest predicted decreases occurred in the southern Rocky Mountains and Mid-West, whereas southern California and Sierra Nevada streams showed the greatest increases. Generally, streams in dry areas underlain by non-calcareous rocks were predicted to be the most vulnerable to increases in EC associated with climate change. Predicted changes in other water chemistry parameters (e.g., Acid Neutralization Capacity (ANC), SO4, and Ca) were similar to EC, although the magnitude of ANC and SO4 change was greater. Predicted changes in ANC and SO4 are in general agreement with those changes already observed in seven locations with long term records.

Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana

Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall

A Poor Relationship Between Sea Level and Deep-Water Sand Delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Ashley D.; Baumgardner, Sarah E.; Sun, Tao; Granjeon, Didier

2018-08-01

The most commonly cited control on delivery of sand to deep water is the rate of relative sea-level fall. The rapid rate of accommodation loss on the shelf causes sedimentation to shift basinward. Field and experimental numerical modeling studies have shown that deep-water sand delivery can occur during any stage of relative sea level position and across a large range of values of rate of relative sea-level change. However, these studies did not investigate the impact of sediment transport efficiency on the relationship between rate of relative sea-level change and deep-water sand delivery rate. We explore this relationship using a deterministic nonlinear diffusion-based numerical stratigraphic forward model. We vary across three orders of magnitude the diffusion coefficient value for marine settings, which controls sediment transport efficiency. We find that the rate of relative sea-level change can explain no more than 1% of the variability in deep-water sand delivery rates, regardless of sediment transport efficiency. Model results show a better correlation with relative sea level, with up to 55% of the variability in deep water sand delivery rates explained. The results presented here are consistent with studies of natural settings which suggest stochastic processes such as avulsion and slope failure, and interactions among such processes, may explain the remaining variance. Relative sea level is a better predictor of deep-water sand delivery than rate of relative sea-level change because it is the sea-level fall itself which promotes sand delivery, not the rate of the fall. We conclude that the poor relationship between sea level and sand delivery is not an artifact of the modeling parameters but is instead due to the inadequacy of relative sea level and the rate of relative sea-level change to fully describe the dimensional space in which depositional systems reside. Subsequently, sea level itself is unable to account for the interaction of multiple processes

Water Underground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I. E. M.

2014-12-01

The world's largest accessible source of freshwater is hidden underground. However it remains difficult to estimate its volume, and we still cannot answer the question; will there be enough for everybody? In many places of the world groundwater abstraction is unsustainable: more water is used than refilled, leading to decreasing river discharges and declining groundwater levels. It is predicted that for many regions in the world unsustainable water use will increase in the coming decades, due to rising human water use under a changing climate. It would not take long before water shortage causes widespread droughts and the first water war begins. Improving our knowledge about our hidden water is the first step to prevent such large water conflicts. The world's largest aquifers are mapped, but these maps do not mention how much water these aquifers contain or how fast water levels decline. If we can add thickness and geohydrological information to these aquifer maps, we can estimate how much water is stored and its flow direction. Also, data on groundwater age and how fast the aquifer is refilled is needed to predict the impact of human water use and climate change on the groundwater resource. Ultimately, if we can provide this knowledge water conflicts will focus more on a fair distribution instead of absolute amounts of water.

Hydrologic record extension of water-level data in the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), 1991-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Petkewich, Matthew D.; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Telis, Pamela A.

2015-01-01

To hindcast and fill data records, 214 empirical models were developed—189 are linear regression models and 25 are artificial neural network models. The coefficient of determination (R2) for 163 of the models is greater than 0.80 and the median percent model error (root mean square error divided by the range of the measured data) is 5 percent. To evaluate the performance of the hindcast models as a group, contour maps of modeled water-level surfaces at 2-centimeter (cm) intervals were generated using the hindcasted data. The 2-cm contour maps were examined for selected days to verify that water surfaces from the EDEN model are consistent with the input data. The biweekly 2-cm contour maps did show a higher number of issues during days in 1990 as compared to days after 1990. May 1990 had the lowest water levels in the Everglades of the 21-year dataset used for the hindcasting study. To hindcast these record low conditions in 1990, many of the hindcast models would require large extrapolations beyond the range of the predictive quality of the models. For these reasons, it was decided to limit the hindcasted data to the period January 1, 1991, to December 31, 1999. Overall, the hindcasted and gap-filled data are assumed to provide reasonable estimates of station-specific water-level data for an extended historical period to inform research and natural resource management in the Everglades.

Development of a New Model for Accurate Prediction of Cloud Water Deposition on Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katata, G.; Nagai, H.; Wrzesinsky, T.; Klemm, O.; Eugster, W.; Burkard, R.

2006-12-01

Scarcity of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas is of great concern in the light of population growth and food shortages. Several experiments focusing on cloud (fog) water deposition on the land surface suggest that cloud water plays an important role in water resource in such regions. A one-dimensional vegetation model including the process of cloud water deposition on vegetation has been developed to better predict cloud water deposition on the vegetation. New schemes to calculate capture efficiency of leaf, cloud droplet size distribution, and gravitational flux of cloud water were incorporated in the model. Model calculations were compared with the data acquired at the Norway spruce forest at the Waldstein site, Germany. High performance of the model was confirmed by comparisons of calculated net radiation, sensible and latent heat, and cloud water fluxes over the forest with measurements. The present model provided a better prediction of measured turbulent and gravitational fluxes of cloud water over the canopy than the Lovett model, which is a commonly used cloud water deposition model. Detailed calculations of evapotranspiration and of turbulent exchange of heat and water vapor within the canopy and the modifications are necessary for accurate prediction of cloud water deposition. Numerical experiments to examine the dependence of cloud water deposition on the vegetation species (coniferous and broad-leaved trees, flat and cylindrical grasses) and structures (Leaf Area Index (LAI) and canopy height) are performed using the presented model. The results indicate that the differences of leaf shape and size have a large impact on cloud water deposition. Cloud water deposition also varies with the growth of vegetation and seasonal change of LAI. We found that the coniferous trees whose height and LAI are 24 m and 2.0 m2m-2, respectively, produce the largest amount of cloud water deposition in all combinations of vegetation species and structures in the

Water levels in major artesian aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eckel, J.A.; Walker, R.L.

1986-01-01

Water levels and changes in water levels in the major aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain are documented. Water levels in 1,071 wells were measured in 1983, and are compared with 827 water level measurements made in the same wells in 1978. Increased groundwater withdrawals from the major artesian aquifers that underlie the New Jersey Coastal Plain have caused large cones of depression in the artesian heads. These cones are delineated on detailed potentiometric surface maps based on water level data collected in the fall of 1983. Hydrographs from observation wells show trends of water levels for the 6-year period of 1978 through 1983. The Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system is divided into the lower, middle, and upper aquifers. The potentiometric surfaces in these aquifers form large cones of depression centered in the Camden and Middlesex-Monmouth County areas. Measured water levels declined as much as 23 ft in these areas for the period of study. The lowest levels are 96 ft below sea level in Camden County and 91 ft below sea level in the Middlesex-Monmouth County area. Deep cones of depression in coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties in both the Englishtown aquifer system and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer are similar in location and shape. This is because of an effective hydraulic connection between these aquifers. Measured water levels declined as much as 29 ft in the Englishtown aquifer system and 21 ft in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer during the period of study. The lowest levels are 249 ft below sea level in the Englishtown aquifer system and 196 ft below sea level in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer. Water levels in the Piney Point aquifer are as low as 75 ft below sea level at Seaside Park, Ocean County and 35 ft below sea level in southern Cumberland County. Water levels in Cumberland County are affected by large withdrawals of groundwater in Kent County, Delaware. Water levels in the Atlantic City 800 ft sand of the Kirkwood Formation define an

Water-level changes in the High Plains aquifer; predevelopment to 1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGrath, T.J.; Dugan, J.T.

1993-01-01

Regional variability in water-level change in the High Plains aquifer underlying parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming results from large regional differences in climate, soils, land use, and ground-water withdrawals for irrigation. From the beginning of significant development of the High Plains aquifer for irrigation to 1980, substantial water-level declines have occurred in several areas. The estimated average area-weighted water-level decline from predevelopment to 1980 for the High Plains was 9.9 feet, an average annual decline of about 0.25 foot. These declines exceeded 100 feet in some parts of the Central and Southern High Plains. Declines were much smaller and less extensive in the Northern High Plains as a result of later irrigation development. Since 1980, water levels in those areas of large declines in the Central and Southern High Plains have continued to decline, but at a much slower annual rate. The estimated average area-weighted water-level decline from 1980 to 1991 for the entire High Plains was 1.41 feet, an average annual decline of about 0.13 foot. The relatively small decline since 1980, in relation to the declines prior to 1980, is associated with a decrease in ground-water application for irrigated agriculture and greater than normal precipitation. Water-conserving practices and technology, in addition to reductions in irrigated acreages, contributed to the decrease in ground-water withdrawals for irrigation.

Reducing production of taste and odor by deep-living cyanobacteria in drinking water reservoirs by regulation of water level.

PubMed

Su, Ming; Jia, Dongmin; Yu, Jianwei; Vogt, Rolf D; Wang, Jingshi; An, Wei; Yang, Min

2017-01-01

Abatement and control of algae, producing toxins and creating taste & odor (T&O) in drinking water sources, is a major challenge for water supply. In this study we proposed a strategy based on water level regulation for the control of odor-producing cyanobacteria in source water. Miyun Reservoir, the main surface water source for Beijing, has been suffering from 2-methylisoborneol (2-MIB) induced T&O problems caused by deep-living Planktothrix sp. since 2002. The biomass of deep-living Planktothrix in Miyun Reservoir was found to be mainly governed by the water depth above its sediment habitat. An algorithm for water level regulation aiming to minimize the risk for T&O in different types of reservoirs is proposed. The study demonstrates that risk for T&O can be minimized by increasing the water level in Miyun Reservoir. The high-risk area can be reduced by about 2.91% (0.61% to 5.76%) of surface area for each meter increase in the water level, when the water level is lower than 145m. More specifically, the water level needs to be raised to higher than 147.7ma.s.l. from 131.0m in order to obtain an acceptable risk level (ARL) of 10%. This management strategy to abate T&O problems is simpler and cheaper to implement compared to traditional physical, chemical and biological techniques. Moreover, it has no apparent negative impact on water quality and aquatic organisms. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape

Calm water resistance prediction of a bulk carrier using Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes based solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahaman, Md. Mashiur; Islam, Hafizul; Islam, Md. Tariqul; Khondoker, Md. Reaz Hasan

2017-12-01

Maneuverability and resistance prediction with suitable accuracy is essential for optimum ship design and propulsion power prediction. This paper aims at providing some of the maneuverability characteristics of a Japanese bulk carrier model, JBC in calm water using a computational fluid dynamics solver named SHIP Motion and OpenFOAM. The solvers are based on the Reynolds average Navier-Stokes method (RaNS) and solves structured grid using the Finite Volume Method (FVM). This paper comprises the numerical results of calm water test for the JBC model with available experimental results. The calm water test results include the total drag co-efficient, average sinkage, and trim data. Visualization data for pressure distribution on the hull surface and free water surface have also been included. The paper concludes that the presented solvers predict the resistance and maneuverability characteristics of the bulk carrier with reasonable accuracy utilizing minimum computational resources.

Modeling Benthic Sediment Processes to Predict Water Quality and Ecology in Narragansett Bay