Statistical approaches for studying the wave climate of crossing-sea states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Portilla, Jesus; Benetazzo, Alvise; Cavaleri, Luigi; Sclavo, Mauro; Carniel, Sandro

2017-04-01

Surface waves are an important feature of the world's oceans and seas. Their role in the air-sea exchanges is well recognized, together with their effects on the upper ocean and lower atmosphere dynamics. Physical processes involving surface waves contribute in driving the Earth's climate that, while experiencing changes at global and regional scales, in turn affects the surface waves climate over the oceans. The assessment of the wave climate at specific locations of the ocean is fruitful for many research fields in marine and atmospheric sciences and also for the human activities in the marine environment. Very often, wind generated waves (wind-sea) and one or more swell systems occur simultaneously, depending on the complexity of the atmospheric conditions that force the waves. Therefore, a wave climate assessed from the statistical analysis of long time series of integral wave parameters, can hardly say something about the frequency of occurrence of the so-called crossing-seas, as well as of their features. Directional wave spectra carry such information but proper statistical methods to analyze them are needed. In this respect, in order to identify the crossing sea states within the spectral time series and to assess their frequency of occurrence we exploit two advanced statistical techniques. First, we apply the Spectral Partitioning, a well-established method based on a two-step partitioning of the spectrum that allows to identify the individual wave systems and to compute their probability of occurrence in the frequency/direction space. Then, we use the Self-Organizing Maps, an unsupervised neural network algorithm that quantize the time series by autonomously identifying an arbitrary (small) number of wave spectra representing the whole wave climate, each with its frequency of occurrence. This method has been previously applied to time series of wave parameters and for the first time is applied to directional wave spectra. We analyze the wave climate of one of the most severe regions of the Mediterranean Sea, between north-west Sardinia and the Gulf of Lion, where quite often wave systems coming from different directions superpose. Time series for the analysis is taken from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis dataset, which provides global directional wave spectra at 1° resolution, starting from 1979 up to the present. Results from the two techniques are shown to be consistent, and their comparison points out the contribution that each technique can provide for a more detailed interpretation of the wave climate.

A Comparison Between Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in Observations and Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, Marvin A.; Alexadner, M. Joan; Love, Peter T.; Bacmeister, Julio; Ern, Manfred; Hertzog, Albert; Manzini, Elisa; Preusse, Peter; Sato, Kaoru; Scaife, Adam A.;

Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

2017-05-01

A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Future Heat Waves in Paris Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulant, A.; Lemonsu, A.; Somot, S.; Masson, V.

2010-12-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, firstly because they concentrate the majority of the population and, secondly because the heat island that characterizes the urban climate exacerbates heat wave effects. This work is part of the interdisciplinary VURCA project (Vulnerability of cities to heat waves), which deals with the evolution of heat wave events in the context of global warming, urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1950-2009) and their evolution in an enhanced greenhouse gazes future climate (2010-2100). We used daily observations of temperature from several stations covering Paris metropolitan area and climate projections following three different IPCC-SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and issued from several ENSEMBLES regional climate models. The heat wave definition is based on the indexes of the operational French warning system. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a heat wave peak, when the temperatures exceed the value of the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak, for which the temperatures are not durably smaller than the 99.9th percentile value minus 2 °C. The 99.9th percentile threshold is inferred from quantile-quantile plots produced for each climate model in comparison with observations for the reference period 1950-2000. Heat waves have been extracted within observations and 12 climatic simulations. The number of heat wave events and cumulated HW days per year have been calculated, the maximum being seven heat waves cumulating more than 60 HW days in one year in the case of the A2 scenario and until 50 days in the case of the more moderate A1B scenario. From 2050, the occurrence of three or four HW events per year is becoming the norm all scenarios taken together. The evolution of heat wave features has been analysed, highlighting the large variability of the climatic simulations, but also an overall trend to an increase in frequency and duration but less significantly in intensity. Further work will be carried out in order to assess the sensitivity of the Paris urban climate to different future heat wave events. Synthetic HW events will be built from future HW features as duration and intensity, and will be simulated using a urban-weather model. Then, the impacts in terms of energy consumption and bioclimatic comfort will be analysed and adaptation strategies will be proposed.

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Morphological Inheritance in Sandy Coastline Morphologies Subject to Long-Term Changes in Wave Climate: Surprising Insights from a Coastline Evolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Thomas, C.; Hurst, M. D.; Barkwith, A.; Ashton, A. D.; Ellis, M. A.

2014-12-01

Recent numerical modelling demonstrates that when sandy coastlines are affected predominantly by waves approaching from "high" angles (> ~45° between the coastline and wave crests at the offshore limit of shore-parallel contours), large-scale (kms to 100 kms) morphodynamic instabilities and finite-amplitude interactions can lead to the emergence of striking coastline features, including sand waves, capes and spits. The type of feature that emerges depends on the wave climate, defined as the angular distribution of wave influences on alongshore sediment transport. Under a constant wave climate, coastline morphology reaches a dynamical steady state; the cross-shore/alongshore aspect ratio and the general appearance of the features remains constant. In previous modelling involving wave-climate change, as well as comparisons between observed coastline morphologies and wave climates, it has been implicitly assumed that the morphology adjusts in a quasi-equilibrium fashion, so that at any time the coastline shape reflects the current forcing. However, here we present new model results showing pronounced path dependence in coastline morphodynamics. In experiments with a period of constant wave climate followed by a period of transition to a new wave climate and then a run-on phase, the features that exist during the run-on phase can be qualitatively and quantitatively different from those that would develop initially under the final wave climate. Although the features inherited from the past wave-climate history may in some case be true alternate stable states, in other cases the inherited features gradually decay toward the morphology that would be expected given the final wave climate. A suite of such experiments allows us to characterize how the e-folding timescale of this decay depends on 1) the initial wave climate, 2) the path through wave-climate space, and 3) the rate of transition. When the initial features are flying spits with cross-shore amplitudes of 6 - 8 km, e-folding times can be on the order of millennia or longer. These results could provide a new perspective when interpreting current and past coastline features. In addition, the complex paleo-coastline structure that develops in the coastal hinterlands in these experiments could be relevant to the structures observed in some coastal environments.

Effects of climate change on wave height at the coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, J.

2003-04-01

To make progress towards the ultimate objective of predicting coastal vulnerability to climate change, we need to predict the probability of extreme values of sea level and wave height, and their likely variation with changing climate. There is evidence of changes in sea level and wave height on various time-scales. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to be responsible for increasing wave height in the North Atlantic over recent decades. The impact of changes in wave height in the North Atlantic at the coastline in the North Sea, the Hebrides/Malin Shelf and the English Channel will be quite different. Three different, and contrasting areas are examined The effect of changing sea levels, due to global warming and changes in tides and surge height and frequency, is combined with increases in offshore wave height. Coastal wave modelling, using the WAM and SWAN wave models, provides a useful tool for examining the possible impacts of climate change at the coast. This study is part of a Tyndall Centre project which is examining the vulnerability of the UK coast to changing wave climate and sea level. These changes are likely to be especially important in low-lying areas with coastal wetlands such as the north Norfolk coast, which has been selected as a detailed case study area. In this area there are offshore shallow banks and extensive inter-tidal areas. There are transitions from upper marsh to freshwater grazing marshes, sand dunes, shingle beaches, mudflats and sandflats. Many internationally important and varied habitats are threatened by rising sea levels and changes in storminess due to potential climate change effects. Likely changes in overtopping of coastal embankments, inundation of intertidal areas, sediment transport and coastal erosion are examined. Changes in low water level may be important as well as high water. The second area of study is Christchurch Bay in the English Channel. The English Channel is exposed to swell from the North Atlantic and a moderate tidal range. The coastline is quite developed with popular beaches. There are defended and undefended stretches of coastline. The waves reaching the coastline are modulated by the strong tidal streams in the Solent and shoal areas like Shingles Bank. The Sea of the Hebrides is an area important for fishing and tourism, but is the part of the UK exposed to the most severe waves, being most directly connected with the North Atlantic. The UK’s first wave power plant is in operation on Islay. Sea level changes are likely to be relatively unimportant but changes in wave climate could have a direct impact on local economic activity.

Climate change impact on wave energy in the Persian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamranzad, Bahareh; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Chegini, Vahid; Yeganeh-Bakhtiary, Abbas

2015-06-01

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth's temperature, and consequently have changed the patterns of natural phenomena such as wind speed, wave height, etc. Renewable energy resources are ideal alternatives to reduce the negative effects of increasing greenhouse gases emission and climate change. However, these energy sources are also sensitive to changing climate. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave energy in the Persian Gulf is investigated. For this purpose, future wind data obtained from CGCM3.1 model were downscaled using a hybrid approach and modification factors were computed based on local wind data (ECMWF) and applied to control and future CGCM3.1 wind data. Downscaled wind data was used to generate the wave characteristics in the future based on A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, while ECMWF wind field was used to generate the wave characteristics in the control period. The results of these two 30-yearly wave modelings using SWAN model showed that the average wave power changes slightly in the future. Assessment of wave power spatial distribution showed that the reduction of the average wave power is more in the middle parts of the Persian Gulf. Investigation of wave power distribution in two coastal stations (Boushehr and Assalouyeh ports) indicated that the annual wave energy will decrease in both stations while the wave power distribution for different intervals of significant wave height and peak period will also change in Assalouyeh according to all scenarios.

Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.

Statistical wave climate projections for coastal impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Losada, I. J.; Izaguirre, C.; Espejo, A.; Menéndez, M.; Pérez, J.

2017-09-01

Global multimodel wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0° × 1.0° scale from 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multimodel projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

Modeled changes in extreme wave climate for US and US-affiliated Pacific Islands during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shope, J. B.; Storlazzi, C. D.; Erikson, L. H.; Hegermiller, C.

2013-12-01

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Waves are the dominant spatially- and temporally-varying processes that influence the coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact the coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of these islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5., for Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall, the December-February extreme significant wave heights increase from present to mid century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights decrease throughout the century. Peak wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line through all seasons, whereas peak periods increase in the eastern half of the study area; these trends are smaller during December-February and greatest during June-August. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30 degree counter-clockwise rotation from primarily northwest to west. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude of the trends greater for the higher scenario.

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

Autogenic and Allogenic: Emergent Coastline Patterns Interact With Forcing Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Mendez, F. J.; Moore, L. J.; Wood, J.; Farley, G.

2017-12-01

A range of coastline shapes can emerge from large-scale morphodynamic interactions. Coastline shape determines local wave influences. Local wave influences (fluxes of alongshore momentum), determine sediment fluxes, and gradients in these sediment fluxes, in turn, alter coastline shape. Modeling studies show that such feedbacks lead to an instability, and to subsequent finite-amplitude interactions, producing self-organized patterns and emergent structures including sandwaves, capes, and spits (e.g. Ashton and Murray, 2006; Ashton et al., 2015); spiral bays on rocky coastlines (e.g. Barkwith et al., 2014); and convex, spit-bounded coastlines (Ells et al., in prep.). Coastline shapes depend sensitively on wave climate, defined as the angular distribution of wave influences on alongshore sediment transport. Therefore, shifts in wave climate arising from shifts in storms (decadal scale fluctuations or longer-term trends) will tend to change coastline shape. Previous efforts have detected changing coastline shape, likely related to changing influence from hurricane-generated waves, as expressed in changes in the location and intensity of coastal erosion zones along the cuspate capes in North Carolina, USA (Moore et al., 2013). These efforts involved the assumption that coastline response to changing forcing occurs in a quasi-equilibrium manner. However, in some cases coastline responses can exhibit long-term memory and path dependence (Thomas et al., 2016). Recently, we have hindcast the wave climate affecting the North Carolina coast since 1870, using a series of statistical analyses to downscale from basin-scale surface pressure fields to regional deep-water wave climate, and then a numerical transformation to local offshore wave climate. We used this wave climate as input for the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM). The results show that the emergent coastline features respond to decadal-scale shifts in wave climate, but with time lags that complicate the relationship between forcing and coastline shape. Comparisons between model predictions and observed shoreline-change patterns support the suggestion that the relationship between emergent coastline behaviours (autogenic processes) and external influences (autogenic forcing) involves such memory effects (Antolinez et al., in revision).

Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.

PubMed

Garnier, Jimmy; Lewis, Mark A

2016-11-01

Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

Modelling the Holderness coast, eastern England: Past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkwith, A.; Limber, P. W.; Thomas, C. W.; Murray, A.; Jordan, H. M.; Ellis, M. A.

2012-12-01

The Holderness coast of eastern Yorkshire, England, is the most rapidly eroding coastline in Europe. Erosion can locally exceed 10 m in a single year and rates average 0.5 to 3 m yr-1, generally increasing from north to south. Pinned in the north by a chalk headland, the soft till coastline has a characteristic open spiral form terminated by a spit to the south. Erosion currently threatens local communities and infrastructure, including nationally important gas installations. Interventions to restrict local erosion usually result in enhanced erosion in adjacent, unprotected sections of coast, mirroring morphology seen on the large scale. We have initiated a modelling study to investigate the key controls on the form and evolution of this coastline, and its response to climate change, building on the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) developed at Duke University, NC. We have adapted the CEM to permit an ensemble of simulations to be undertaken, based upon modified offshore wave climates, initial conditions and forcing factors. The CEM follows a standard 1d approach, where the cross-shore is collapsed into a single data point, allowing the planform shoreline shape and dynamics to be simulated. The model facilitates study of a coast with variable erosion rates, and enables simulation of coastline evolution when sediment is supplied from an eroding shoreface. Additionally, the CEM is adapted to use an observed two year, offshore wave climate data set as input. Initial work focussed on reconstruction of current coastline shape from an ensemble of hypothetical early Holocene shoreface positions and past wave climates. First order reconstruction of shoreline shape was achieved using several differing initial conditions and wave climates. For the majority of successful simulations, a steady state was noted for proceeding years, where erosion proceeds at an equal rate along the length of the coast south of the headland. Together with a sensitivity analysis, the derivation of the current coastline provided initial conditions for the second phase of the work: simulating the morphological response of the Holderness coastline to possible future changes in climate over the next century. An ensemble of future possible wave climate perturbations was generated from predictions of the likely response of the North Sea to future climate change over the next century, and applied linearly to the observed wave climate as each simulation progressed. The ensemble output was compared to a baseline simulation, run for a century under current wave climate, to assess the impact of predicted future climate on coastal erosion. Although this study does not currently take into account the changes in storm frequency, rises in sea level or the anthropogenic inputs that could influence the results, the initial output indicates erosional rates over the next century are likely to be retarded for the Holderness coastline under a changing climate.

Forecasting European cold waves based on subsampling strategies of CMIP5 and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordero-Llana, Laura; Braconnot, Pascale; Vautard, Robert; Vrac, Mathieu; Jezequel, Aglae

2016-04-01

Forecasting future extreme events under the present changing climate represents a difficult task. Currently there are a large number of ensembles of simulations for climate projections that take in account different models and scenarios. However, there is a need for reducing the size of the ensemble to make the interpretation of these simulations more manageable for impact studies or climate risk assessment. This can be achieved by developing subsampling strategies to identify a limited number of simulations that best represent the ensemble. In this study, cold waves are chosen to test different approaches for subsampling available simulations. The definition of cold waves depends on the criteria used, but they are generally defined using a minimum temperature threshold, the duration of the cold spell as well as their geographical extend. These climate indicators are not universal, highlighting the difficulty of directly comparing different studies. As part of the of the CLIPC European project, we use daily surface temperature data obtained from CMIP5 outputs as well as Euro-CORDEX simulations to predict future cold waves events in Europe. From these simulations a clustering method is applied to minimise the number of ensembles required. Furthermore, we analyse the different uncertainties that arise from the different model characteristics and definitions of climate indicators. Finally, we will test if the same subsampling strategy can be used for different climate indicators. This will facilitate the use of the subsampling results for a wide number of impact assessment studies.

A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando

2013-04-01

Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at 110 coastal locations along the French coast. The model, based on the BAJ parameterization of the source terms (Bidlot et al, 2007) was calibrated against ten years of GlobWave altimeter observations (2000-2009) and validated through deep and shallow water buoy observations. The dynamical downscaling method has been performed with the same numerical wave model TOMAWAC used for building ANEMOC-2. Forecast simulations are forced by the 10m wind fields of ARPEGE-CLIMAT (A1B, A2, B1) from 2010 to 2100. The model covers the Atlantic Ocean and uses a spatial resolution along the French and European coast of 10 and 20 km respectively. The results of the model are stored with a time resolution of one hour. References: Benoit M., Marcos F., and F. Becq, (1996). Development of a third generation shallow-water wave model with unstructured spatial meshing. Proc. 25th Int. Conf. on Coastal Eng., (ICCE'1996), Orlando (Florida, USA), pp 465-478. Bidlot J-R, Janssen P. and Adballa S., (2007). A revised formulation of ocean wave dissipation and its model impact, technical memorandum ECMWF n°509. Menendez, M., Mendez, F.J., Izaguirre,C., Camus, P., Espejo, A., Canovas, V., Minguez, R., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2011). Statistical Downscaling of Multivariate Wave Climate Using a Weather Type Approach, 12th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 3rd Coastal Hazard Symposium, Kona (Hawaii).

Controls of multi-modal wave conditions in a complex coastal setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hegermiller, Christie; Rueda, Ana C.; Erikson, Li H.; Barnard, Patrick L.; Antolinez, J.A.A.; Mendez, Fernando J.

2017-01-01

Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.

Controls of Multimodal Wave Conditions in a Complex Coastal Setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegermiller, C. A.; Rueda, A.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P. L.; Antolinez, J. A. A.; Mendez, F. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal hazards emerge from the combined effect of wave conditions and sea level anomalies associated with storms or low-frequency atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Rigorous characterization of wave climate is limited by the availability of spectral wave observations, the computational cost of dynamical simulations, and the ability to link wave-generating atmospheric patterns with coastal conditions. We present a hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to simulating nearshore wave climate in complex coastal settings, demonstrated in the Southern California Bight, where waves arriving from distant, disparate locations are refracted over complex bathymetry and shadowed by offshore islands. Contributions of wave families and large-scale atmospheric drivers to nearshore wave energy flux are analyzed. Results highlight the variability of influences controlling wave conditions along neighboring coastlines. The universal method demonstrated here can be applied to complex coastal settings worldwide, facilitating analysis of the effects of climate change on nearshore wave climate.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Warming set stage for deadly heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-04-01

In the summer of 2010, soaring temperatures and widespread forest fires ravaged western Russia, killing 55,000 and causing $15 billion in economic losses. In the wake of the record-setting heat wave, two studies sought to identify the contribution that human activities made to the event. One showed that temperatures seen during the deadly heat wave fell within the bounds of natural variability, while another attributed the heat wave to human activity, arguing that anthropogenic warming increased the chance of record-breaking temperatures occurring. Merging the stances of both studies, Otto et al. sought to show that while human contributions to climate change did not necessarily cause the deadly heat wave, they did play a role in setting the stage for its occurrence. Using an ensemble of climate simulations, the authors assessed the expected magnitude and frequency of an event like the 2010 heat wave under both 1960s and 2000s environmental conditions. The authors found that although the average temperature in July 2010 was 5°C higher than the average July temperature from the past half decade, the deadly heat wave was within the natural variability of 1960s, as well as 2000s, climate conditions

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5

PubMed Central

Anderson, G.B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S.A.; Sanderson, B.

2015-01-01

Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1°C (southeast) to 4.6°C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50%. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5. PMID:29520121

Changes in the shoreline at Paradip Port, India in response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopikrishna, B.; Deo, M. C.

2018-02-01

One of the popular methods to predict shoreline shifts into the future involves use of a shoreline evolution model driven by the historical wave climate. It is however understood by now that historical wave conditions might substantially change in future in response to climate change induced by the global warming. The future shoreline changes as well as sediment transport therefore need to be determined with the help of future projections of wave climate. In this work this is done at the port of Paradip situated along the east coast of India. The high resolution wind resulting from a climate modelling experiment called: CORDEX, South Asia, was used to simulate waves over two time-slices of 25 years each in past and future. The wave simulations were carried out with the help of a numerical wave model. Thereafter, rates of longshore sediment transport as well as shoreline shifts were determined over past and future using a numerical shoreline model. It was found that at Paradip Port the net littoral drift per metre width of cross-shore might go up by 37% and so also the net accumulated drift over the entire cross-shore width by 71%. This could be caused by an increase in the mean significant wave height of around 32% and also by changes in the frequency and direction of waves. The intensification of waves in turn might result from an increase in the mean wind speed of around 19%. Similarly, the horizontal extent of the beach accretion and erosion at the port's southern breakwater might go up by 4 m and 8 m, respectively, from the current level in another 25 years. This study should be useful in framing future port management strategies.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

PubMed Central

Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-01-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958–2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different. PMID:27713662

Coast of California Storm and Tidal Waves Study. Southern California Coastal Processes Data Summary,

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

distribution of tracers injected on the beach. The suspended load was obtained from in situ measurements of the water column in the surf zone (Zampol and...wind waves. 3.2.2 Wave Climate There are relatively few in situ long-term measurements of the deep ocean (i.e. unaffected by the channel islands and...climate parameters and were not intended for that purpose. In the literature reviewed, the principal source of long-term in situ measurements is the

Resiliency of the Nation's Power Grid: Assessing Risks of Premature Failure of Large Power Transformers Under Climate Warming and Increased Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Morgan, E.

2017-12-01

The aging pieces of our nation's power grid - the largest machine ever built - are at a critical time. Key assets in the transmission system, including large power transformers (LPTs), are approaching their originally designed lifetimes. Moreover, extreme weather and climate events upon which these design lifetimes are partially based are expected to change. In particular, more frequent and intense heat waves can accelerate the degradation of LPTs' insulation/cooling system. Thus, there are likely thousands of LPTs across the United States under increasing risk of premature failure - yet this risk has not been assessed. In this study, we investigate the impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in heat waves for critical LPTs located in the Northeast corridor of the United States to assess: To what extent do changes in heat waves/events present a rising threat to the transformer network over the Northeast U.S. and to what extent can climate mitigation reduce this risk? This study focuses on a collection of LPTs with a high degree of "betweenness" - while recognizing other factors such as: connectivity, voltage rating, MVA rating, approximate price, weight, location/proximity to major transportation routes, and age. To assess the risk of future change in heat wave occurrence we use an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of heat waves based on associated large-scale atmospheric conditions. This method is compared to the more conventional approach that uses model-simulated daily maximum temperature. Under future climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both methods indicate strong increases in heat wave frequency during the latter half of this century. Under weak climate mitigation - the risks imposed from heat wave occurrence could quadruple, but a modest mitigation scenario cuts the increasing threat in half. As important, the analogue method substantially improves the model consensus through reduction of the interquartile range by a factor of three. The improved inter-model consensus is viewed as a promising step toward providing more actionable climate information. Ultimately - this technique could be applied to the entirety of the U.S. power grid as well as other weather extrema (e.g. precipitation, ice, and wind) as well as assess current and future topologies of any electricity system.

Influence of Wave Energetics on Nearshore Storms and Adjacent Shoreline Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadman, H. M.; McNinch, J. E.; Hanson, J.

2008-12-01

Large-scale climatic forcings (such as NAO and ENSO) are known to induce fluctuations in regional storm frequency and intensity. Morphology-based studies have traditionally focused on individual storms and their influence on the nearshore coastal wave regime and shoreline response. Few studies have attempted to link long-term observed changes in shoreline position, beach, and nearshore morphology with large-scale climatic forcings that influence regional storm patterns. In order to predict the response of coastlines to future sea level rise and climate change, we need to understand how changes in the frequency of storms affecting nearshore regions (nearshore storms) may influence trends in shoreline position and nearshore morphology. Nearly 30 years of wave data (deep and shallow) collected off of Duck, NC are examined for trends in storm frequency and/or intensity. Changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevation, as observed from monthly beach transects over the same period, are also investigated in light of the observed trends in hydrodynamic forcings. Our preliminary analysis was unable to identify any consistent linear trends (increases or decreases) in frequency or intensity over the ~30-year time period in either the offshore wave heights or the nearshore storm record. These data might suggest that previous observations of recent increases in storm intensity and frequency, speculated to be due to climate change, might be spatially limited. Future analyses will partition the contributions from individual wind sea and swell events in order to better identify long-term trends in wave energetics from the various wave generation regions in the Atlantic. At this location, offshore wave height and the nearshore storm record are dominated by seasonal fluctuations and a strong interdecadal- to decadal periodicity. Previous research in Duck, NC has suggested that changes in shoreline position and shoreface elevations are related both to seasonal trends as well as "storm groupiness". Our analyses support these findings, but also identify interdecadal- to decadal trends in the nearshore morphology. Despite these fluctuations, the overall position of the shoreline and elevation of the shoreface shows little net change over the 30 years investigated. We hypothesize that the interdecadal- to decadal periodicity in the morphology is driven largely by the influences of large-scale climatic forcings on the nearshore wave regime as reflected in the storm record. We also explore the relationship between morphological periodicity, storm and wave height periodicity, and climatic fluctuations.

Characteristics of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation simulation in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, K.; Naoe, H.

2016-12-01

Whether climate models drive Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) appropriately is important to assess QBO impact on climate change such as global warming and solar related variation. However, there were few models generating QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This study focuses on dynamical structure of the QBO and its sensitivity to background wind pattern and model configuration. We present preliminary results of experiments designed by "Towards Improving the QBO in Global Climate Models (QBOi)", which is derived from the Stratosphere-troposphere processes and their role in climate (SPARC), in the Meteorological Research Institute earth system model, MRI-ESM2. The simulations were performed in present-day climate condition, repeated annual cycle condition with various CO2 level and sea surface temperatures, and QBO hindcast. In the present climate simulation, zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere generally exhibits realistic behavior of the QBO. Equatorial zonal wind variability associated with QBO is overestimated in upper stratosphere and underestimated in lower stratosphere. In the MRI-ESM2, the QBO behavior is mainly driven by gravity wave drag parametrization (GWDP) introduced in Hines (1997). Comparing to reanalyses, shortage of resolved wave forcing is found especially in equatorial lower stratosphere. These discrepancies can be attributed to difference in wave forcing, background wind pattern and model configuration. We intend to show results of additional sensitivity experiments to examine how model configuration and background wind pattern affect resolved wave source, wave propagation characteristics, and QBO behavior.

The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

2008-09-01

This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

Sahelian springtime heat waves and their evolution over the past 60 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbier, Jessica; Guichard, Françoise; Bouniol, Dominique; Couvreux, Fleur; Roehrig, Romain

2017-04-01

The Sahel is a semi-arid region which experiences very high temperature both during day- and night-times: monthly-mean temperatures in Spring typically oscillate between 30 and 40°C. At the same time a strong climatic warming has been observed over the past 60 years in this region: it reaches +1,5°C over April-May. Thus heat waves in this region have severe impacts on health, ecosystem, agriculture and more broadly economical activities, which will probably worsen in the context of climate change. However, heat waves in the Sahel remain poorly studied. The present work documents Sahelian heat waves and assesses their evolution across the last 60 years. Properties of heat waves are sensitive to the way they are detected. Here, we use a methodology based on anomalies that allows to filter the seasonal, inter-annual and climatic evolutions, using a percentile-type threshold. It is applied separately to daily maximum and minimum temperatures and leads to two types of heat waves: day- and night-time ones. This separation matters because physical processes linked to minimum and maximum temperatures can be quite distinct. The changes in both types of heat wave were studied over the period 1950-2012 using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature gridded product: several heat wave characteristics were investigated, including morphological ones such as the length and the spatial extent of the event, the heat wave intensity and the associated warming trends. We found no significant trends in the frequency, duration and spatial extent of both types of heat waves, while on the other hand their maximum and minimum temperatures displayed significant positive trends. They were mainly explained by the regional warming. By contrast, with a standard climatic heat index using percentile-threshold on raw temperatures, both day- and night-time heat wave frequencies were increasing, and while the day-time heat waves were getting longer and larger, the night-time heat waves were getting hotter. The explanations for the differences between the heat indexes will be discussed. The ability of the three reanalyses ERA-Interim, NCEP2 and MERRA to reproduce Sahelian heat wave properties and their associated trends was further assessed on the period 1979-2010. At this shorter scale, we did not find any significant heat wave trend. Furthermore, reanalyses strongly differed in the representation of the heat wave inter-annual variability. These results raise concern about the utilization of meteorological reanalyses for the study of heat wave trends in West Africa.

Impacts of wave energy conversion devices on local wave climate: observations and modelling from the Perth Wave Energy Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoeke, Ron; Hemer, Mark; Contardo, Stephanie; Symonds, Graham; Mcinnes, Kathy

2016-04-01

As demonstrated by the Australian Wave Energy Atlas (AWavEA), the southern and western margins of the country possess considerable wave energy resources. The Australia Government has made notable investments in pre-commercial wave energy developments in these areas, however little is known about how this technology may impact local wave climate and subsequently affect neighbouring coastal environments, e.g. altering sediment transport, causing shoreline erosion or accretion. In this study, a network of in-situ wave measurement devices have been deployed surrounding the 3 wave energy converters of the Carnegie Wave Energy Limited's Perth Wave Energy Project. This data is being used to develop, calibrate and validate numerical simulations of the project site. Early stage results will be presented and potential simulation strategies for scaling-up the findings to larger arrays of wave energy converters will be discussed. The intended project outcomes are to establish zones of impact defined in terms of changes in local wave energy spectra and to initiate best practice guidelines for the establishment of wave energy conversion sites.

Evaluation of CMIP5 and CORDEX Derived Wind Wave Climate in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, P.; Behera, M. R.

2017-12-01

Climate change impact on surface ocean wave parameters need robust assessment for effective coastal zone management. Climate model skill to simulate dynamical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean is assessed in the present work. The historical dynamical wave climate is simulated using surface winds derived from four GCMs and four RCMs, participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-South Asia), respectively, and their ensemble are used to force a spectral wave model. The surface winds derived from GCMs and RCMs are corrected for bias, using Quantile Mapping method, before being forced to the spectral wave model. The climatological properties of wave parameters (significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tp) and direction (θm)) are evaluated relative to ERA-Interim historical wave reanalysis datasets over Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) regions of the northern Indian Ocean for a period of 27 years. We identify that the nearshore wave climate of AS is better predicted than the BoB by both GCMs and RCMs. Ensemble GCM simulated Hs in AS has a better correlation with ERA-Interim ( 90%) than in BoB ( 80%), whereas ensemble RCM simulated Hs has a low correlation in both regions ( 50% in AS and 45% in BoB). In AS, ensemble GCM simulated Tp has better predictability ( 80%) compared to ensemble RCM ( 65%). However, neither GCM nor RCM could satisfactorily predict Tp in nearshore BoB. Wave direction is poorly simulated by GCMs and RCMs in both AS and BoB, with correlation around 50% with GCMs and 60% with RCMs wind derived simulations. However, upon comparing individual RCMs with their parent GCMs, it is found that few of the RCMs predict wave properties better than their parent GCMs. It may be concluded that there is no consistent added value by RCMs over GCMs forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean. We also identify that there is little to no significance of choosing a finer resolution GCM ( 1.4°) over a coarse GCM ( 2.8°) in improving skill of GCM forced dynamical wave simulations.

Twenty-first century wave climate projections for Ireland and surface winds in the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, Sarah; Gleeson, Emily; Tiron, Roxana; McGrath, Ray; Dias, Frédéric

2016-04-01

Ireland has a highly energetic wave and wind climate, and is therefore uniquely placed in terms of its ocean renewable energy resource. The socio-economic importance of the marine resource to Ireland makes it critical to quantify how the wave and wind climate may change in the future due to global climate change. Projected changes in winds, ocean waves and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events should be carefully assessed for long-term marine and coastal planning. We derived an ensemble of future wave climate projections for Ireland using the EC-Earth global climate model and the WAVEWATCH III® wave model, by comparing the future 30-year period 2070-2099 to the period 1980-2009 for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. This dataset is currently the highest resolution wave projection dataset available for Ireland. The EC-Earth ensemble predicts decreases in mean (up to 2 % for RCP4.5 and up to 3.5 % for RCP8.5) 10 m wind speeds over the North Atlantic Ocean (5-75° N, 0-80° W) by the end of the century, which will consequently affect swell generation for the Irish wave climate. The WAVEWATCH III® model predicts an overall decrease in annual and seasonal mean significant wave heights around Ireland, with the largest decreases in summer (up to 15 %) and winter (up to 10 %) for RCP8.5. Projected decreases in mean significant wave heights for spring and autumn were found to be small for both forcing scenarios (less than 5 %), with no significant decrease found for RCP4.5 off the west coast in those seasons.

Half Moon Bay, Grays Harbor, Washington: Movable-Bed Physical Model Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

wave machine used in Half Moon Bay physical model.................................50 Figure 28. Wave analysis output from model wave measurements...Point Chehalis used to reduce strong longshore current................82 Figure 46. Analysis of irregular waves measured at model wave Gauge 4...required several reconstruction efforts between origi- nal construction and present day due to the harsh wave climate on the Washington coast. After

Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Wave Conditions in the Western Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, N.; Fröhle, P.

2017-12-01

The local wave climate in the Western Baltic Sea is mainly generated by the local wind field over the area. Long-term changes of the local wind conditions that are induced e.g. by regional climate change, directly affect the local wave climate and other local wind driven coastal processes like e.g. the longshore sediment transport. The changes of the local wave climate play an important role for the safe functional and structural design of new, or the adaption of existing, coastal protection structures as well as for the assessment of long-term morphological changes of the coastline. In this study, the wave model SWAN is used for the calculation of hourly wave conditions in the Western Baltic Sea between 1960 and 2100. Future wind conditions from two regional climate models (Cosmo-CLM and REMO) that have been forced by different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used within AR4 (A1B, B1) and AR5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of IPCC are used as input for the wave model. The changes of the average wave conditions are analyzed from comparisons between the 30 years averages for the future (e.g. 2071-2100) and the reference period 1971-2000. Regarding the emission scenarios A1B and B1, a significant change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values up to +10% is found (cf. Fig. 1). In contrast, the change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height is more weak at easterly wind exposed locations, resulting in higher and lower values between -5% to +5%. Moreover, more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected, due to changes of the frequency of occurrence of the 30 years averages of mean wave direction. The changes of extreme wave heights are analyzed based on methods of extreme value analysis and the time series of wave parameters at selected locations nearby the German Baltic Sea coast. No robust changes of the significant wave heights with a return period of 200 years are found for the emission scenarios A1B and B1. Both increases and decreases of the extreme wave heights are possible within a range of -18% to +18% (-0.5m to +0.5m). In the presentation, we will show results from the assessment of the changes of the wave conditions for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and discuss possible impacts for the German Baltic Sea coast.

Incorporation of UK Met Office's radiation scheme into CPTEC's global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chagas, Júlio C. S.; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.

2009-03-01

Current parameterization of radiation in the CPTEC's (Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil) operational AGCM has its origins in the work of Harshvardhan et al. (1987) and uses the formulation of Ramaswamy and Freidenreich (1992) for the short-wave absorption by water vapor. The UK Met Office's radiation code (Edwards and Slingo, 1996) was incorporated into CPTEC's global model, initially for short-wave only, and some impacts of that were shown by Chagas and Barbosa (2006). Current paper presents some impacts of the complete incorporation (both short-wave and long-wave) of UK Met Office's scheme. Selected results from off-line comparisons with line-by-line benchmark calculations are shown. Impacts on the AGCM's climate are assessed by comparing output of climate runs of current and modified AGCM with products from GEWEX/SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project.

Modes of embayed beach dynamics: analysis reveals emergent timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, K. T.; Murray, A.; Limber, P. W.; Ells, K. D.

2013-12-01

Embayed beaches, or beaches positioned between rocky headlands, exhibit morphologic changes over many length and time scales. Beach sediment is transported as a result of the day-to-day wave forcing, causing patterns of erosion and accretion. We use the Rocky Coastline Evolution Model (RCEM) to investigate how patterns of shoreline change depend on wave climate (the distribution of wave-approach angles) and beach characteristics. Measuring changes in beach width through time allows us to track the evolution of the shape of the beach and the movement of sand within it. By using Principle Component Analysis (PCA), these changes can be categorized into modes, where the first few modes explain the majority of the variation in the time series. We analyze these modes and how they vary as a function of wave climate and headland/bay aspect ratio. In the purposefully simple RCEM, sediment transport is wave-driven and affected by wave shadowing behind the headlands. The rock elements in our model experiments (including the headlands) are fixed and unerodable so that this analysis can focus purely on sand dynamics between the headlands, without a sand contribution from the headlands or cliffs behind the beach. The wave climate is characterized by dictating the percentage of offshore waves arriving from the left and the percentage of waves arriving from high angles (very oblique to the coastline orientation). A high-angle dominated wave climate tends to amplify coastline perturbations, whereas a lower-angle wave climate is diffusive. By changing the headland/bay aspect ratio and wave climate, we can perform PCA analysis of generalized embayed beaches with differing anatomy and wave climate forcings. Previous work using PCA analysis of embayed beaches focused on specific locations and shorter timescales (<30 years; Short and Trembanis, 2004). By using the RCEM, we can more broadly characterize beach dynamics over longer timescales. The first two PCA modes, which explain a majority of the beach width time series variation (typically >70%), are a 'breathing' mode and a 'rotational' mode. The newly identified breathing mode captures the sand movement from the middle of the beach towards the edges (thickening the beach along the headlands), and the rotational mode describes the movement of sand towards one headland or another, both in response to stochastic fluctuations about the mean wave climate. The two main modes operate independently and on different timescales. In a weakly low-angle dominated wave climate, the breathing mode tends to be the first mode (capturing the most variance), but with greater low-angle dominance (greater morphological diffusivity), the rotational mode tends to be first. The aspect ratio of the bay also affects the order of the modes, because wave shadowing affects sediment transport behind the headlands. Previous work has attributed beach rotation to changes in various climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (Thomas et al., 2011); however, PCA analysis of the RCEM results suggests that embayed beaches can have characteristic timescales of sand movement that result from internal system dynamics, emerging even within a statistically constant wave climate. These results suggest that morphologic changes in embayed beaches can occur independently of readily identifiable shifts in forcing.

Anti-Bullying/Harassment Legislation and Educator Perceptions of Severity, Effectiveness, and School Climate: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cosgrove, Heather E.; Nickerson, Amanda B.

2017-01-01

In this cross-sectional study, we examined a matched sample of 924 educators' perceptions of severity of bullying and harassment and school climate prior to (Wave 1 n = 435) and following (Wave 2 n = 489) the implementation of New York's anti-bullying and harassment legislation, the Dignity for All Students Act (DASA). Alignment with DASA mandates…

Extreme European heat waves since 1950 with Heat Wave Magnitude Index and their occurrence in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Simone; Dosio, Alessandro; Sillmann, Jana

2015-04-01

Heat waves are defined as prolonged periods of extremely hot weather and their magnitude and frequency are expected to increase in the future under climate change. Here we grade the heat waves occurred in Europe since 1950, by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) applied to daily maximum temperature from European Observation dataset (E-OBS). As shown in many studies the worst event in the last decades occurred in Russia in 2010. However many other heat waves, as shown here and documented in literature and also in newspapers, occurred in different European regions in the past 64 years. In addition, predictions from ten models from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) under different IPCC AR5 scenarios, suggest an increased probability of occurrence of extreme heat waves by the end of the century. In particular, under the most severe scenario, events of the same severity, as the 2010 Russian heat wave, will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every two years in the studied region.

Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers.

PubMed

Ward, Kathrin; Lauf, Steffen; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Endlicher, Wilfried

2016-11-01

The climate change and the proceeding urbanization create future health challenges. Consequently, more people around the globe will be impaired by extreme weather events, such as heat waves. This study investigates the causes for the emergence of surface urban heat islands and its change during heat waves in 70 European cities. A newly created climate class indicator, a set of meaningful landscape metrics, and two population-related parameters were applied to describe the Surface Urban Heat Island Magnitude (SUHIM) - the mean temperature increase within the urban heat island compared to its surrounding, as well as the Heat Magnitude (HM) - the extra heat load added to the average summer SUHIM during heat waves. We evaluated the relevance of varying urban parameters within linear models. The exemplary European-wide heat wave in July 2006 was chosen and compared to the average summer conditions using MODIS land surface temperature with an improved spatial resolution of 250m. The results revealed that the initial size of the urban heat island had significant influence on SUHIM. For the explanation of HM the size of the heat island, the regional climate and the share of central urban green spaces showed to be critical. Interestingly, cities of cooler climates and cities with higher shares of urban green spaces were more affected by additional heat during heat waves. Accordingly, cooler northern European cities seem to be more vulnerable to heat waves, whereas southern European cities appear to be better adapted. Within the ascertained population and climate clusters more detailed explanations were found. Our findings improve the understanding of the urban heat island effect across European cities and its behavior under heat waves. Also, they provide some indications for urban planners on case-specific adaptation strategies to adverse urban heat caused by heat waves. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzaei, Ali; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Mustapha, Muzneena Ahmad; Husain, Mohd Lokman; Akhir, Mohd Fadzil

2013-08-01

This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Niño3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Niño Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Niño signals.

Source tracing of thunderstorm generated inertia-gravity waves observed during the RADAGAST campaign in Niamey, Niger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naren Athreyas, Kashyapa; Gunawan, Erry; Tay, Bee Kiat

2018-07-01

In recent years, the climate changes and weather have become a major concern which affects the daily life of a human being. Modelling and prediction of the complex atmospheric processes needs extensive theoretical studies and observational analyses to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The RADAGAST campaign was conducted by ARM climate research stationed at Niamey, Niger from January 2006 to January 2007, which was aimed to improve the west African climate studies have provided valuable data for research. In this paper, the characteristics and sources of inertia-gravity waves observed over Niamey during the campaign are investigated. The investigation focuses on highlighting the waves which are generated by thunderstorms which dominate the tropical region. The stratospheric energy densities spectrum is analysed for deriving the wave properties. The waves with Eulerian period from 20 to 50 h occupied most of the spectral power. It was found that the waves observed over Niamey had a dominant eastward propagation with horizontal wavelengths ranging from 350 to 1 400 km, and vertical wavelengths ranging from 0.9 to 3.6 km. GROGRAT model with ERA-Interim model data was used for establishing the background atmosphere to identify the source location of the waves. The waves generated by thunderstorms had propagation distances varying from 200 to 5 000 km and propagation duration from 2 to 4 days. The horizontal phase speeds varied from 2 to 20 m/s with wavelengths varying from 100 to 1 100 km, vertical phase speeds from 0.02 to 0.2 m/s and wavelengths from 2 to 15 km at the source point. The majority of sources were located in South Atlantic ocean and waves propagating towards northeast direction. This study demonstrated the complex large scale coupling in the atmosphere.

Wave climate model of the Mid-Atlantic shelf and shoreline (Virginian Sea): Model development, shelf geomorphology, and preliminary results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldsmith, V.; Morris, W. D.; Byrne, R. J.; Whitlock, C. H.

1974-01-01

A computerized wave climate model is developed that applies linear wave theory and shelf depth information to predict wave behavior as they pass over the continental shelf as well as the resulting wave energy distributions along the coastline. Reviewed are also the geomorphology of the Mid-Atlantic Continental Shelf, wave computations resulting from 122 wave input conditions, and a preliminary analysis of these data.

Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 heat wave: a climate change adaptation study.

PubMed

Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Sheffield, Perry E

2014-01-01

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2-88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation-here relocating one ward-and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.

Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 Heat Wave: A Climate Change Adaptation Study

PubMed Central

Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L.; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Sheffield, Perry E.

2014-01-01

Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2–88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation—here relocating one ward—and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations. PMID:24734050

Interannual variability in the gravity wave drag - vertical coupling and possible climate links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šácha, Petr; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr

2018-05-01

Gravity wave drag (GWD) is an important driver of the middle atmospheric dynamics. However, there are almost no observational constraints on its strength and distribution (especially horizontal). In this study we analyze orographic GWD (OGWD) output from Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulation with specified dynamics (CMAM-sd) to illustrate the interannual variability in the OGWD distribution at particular pressure levels in the stratosphere and its relation to major climate oscillations. We have found significant changes in the OGWD distribution and strength depending on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The OGWD variability is shown to be induced by lower-tropospheric wind variations to a large extent, and there is also significant variability detected in near-surface momentum fluxes. We argue that the orographic gravity waves (OGWs) and gravity waves (GWs) in general can be a quick mediator of the tropospheric variability into the stratosphere as the modifications of the OGWD distribution can result in different impacts on the stratospheric dynamics during different phases of the studied climate oscillations.

Analysis and numerical study of inertia-gravity waves generated by convection in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evan, Stephanie

2011-12-01

Gravity waves transport momentum and energy upward from the troposphere and by dissipation affect the large-scale structure of the middle atmosphere. An accurate representation of these waves in climate models is important for climate studies, but is still a challenge for most global and climate models. In the tropics, several studies have shown that mesoscale gravity waves and intermediate scale inertia-gravity waves play an important role in the dynamics of the upper atmosphere. Despite observational evidence for the importance of forcing of the tropical circulation by inertia-gravity waves, their exact properties and forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation are not fully understood. In this thesis, properties of tropical inertia-gravity waves are investigated using radiosonde data from the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) dataset and high-resolution numerical experiments. Few studies have characterized inertia-gravity wave properties using radiosonde profiles collected on a campaign basis. We first examine the properties of intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves observed during the 2006 TWP-ICE campaign in Australia. We show that the total vertical flux of horizontal momentum associated with the waves is of the same order of magnitude as previous observations of Kelvin waves. This constitutes evidence for the importance of the forcing of the tropical circulation by intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves. Then, we focus on the representation of inertia-gravity waves in analysis data. The wave event observed during TWP-ICE is also present in the ECMWF data. A comparison between the characteristics of the inertia-gravity wave derived with the ECMWF data to the properties of the wave derived with the radiosonde data shows that the ECMWF data capture similar structure for this wave event but with a larger vertical wavelength. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system is used to understand the representation of the wave event in the ECMWF data. The model is configured as a tropical channel with a high top at 1 hPa. WRF is used with the same horizontal resolution (˜ 40 km) as the operational ECMWF in 2006 while using a finer vertical grid-spacing than ECMWF. Different experiments are performed to determine the sensitivity of the wave structure to cumulus schemes, initial conditions and vertical resolution. We demonstrate that high vertical resolution would be required for ECMWF to accurately resolve the vertical structure of inertia-gravity waves and their effect on the middle atmosphere circulation. Lastly we perform WRF simulations in January 2006 and 2007 to assess gravity wave forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation. In these simulations a large part of the gravity wave spectrum is explicitly simulated. The WRF model is able to reproduce the evolution of the mean tropical stratospheric zonal wind when compared to observational data and the ECMWF reanalysis. It is shown that gravity waves account for 60% up to 80% of the total wave forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation. We also compute wave forcing associated with intermediate-scale inertiagravity waves. In the WRF simulations this wave type represents ˜ 30% of the total gravity wave forcing. This suggests that intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves can play an important role in the tropical middle-atmospheric circulation. In addition, the WRF high-resolution simulations are used to provide some guidance for constraining gravity wave parameterizations in coarse-grid climate models.

Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Shi, Liuhua; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2016-09-01

The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960-2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168million residents in 209 US cities during 1962-2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths if the adaptation to heat is not adequate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

2018-05-01

Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

Emotion dysregulation, anticipatory cortisol, and substance use in urban adolescents.

PubMed

Kliewer, Wendy; Riley, Tennisha; Zaharakis, Nikola; Borre, Alicia; Drazdowski, Tess K; Jäggi, Lena

2016-09-01

Anticipatory cortisol is associated with risk for substance use in adolescents. The present study extended prior literature by testing a model linking family emotional climate, emotion dysregulation, anticipatory cortisol, and substance use. Participants were 229 adolescents ( M = 11.94 years, SD = 1.55; 41% male; 92% African American) enrolled in a 4-wave study of stressors, physiological stress responses, and substance use. Caregivers completed measures of family emotional climate at baseline and adolescents' emotion dysregulation one and two years later; adolescents reported on their substance use at baseline and three years later at Wave 4. Adolescents completed a stress task at Wave 4; saliva samples taken immediately prior to the task were analyzed for cortisol. Longitudinal path models revealed that a negative emotional climate at home was associated with elevated emotion dysregulation at subsequent waves for all youth. Emotional dysregulation was prospectively associated with blunted anticipatory cortisol, which in turn was associated with elevated substance use, controlling for baseline substance use and age. However, these associations only were observed for females. This study suggests that helping girls in particular manage their emotional responses to stress more effectively may impact their physiological responses and reduce risk for substance use.

A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolínez, José Antonio A.; Méndez, Fernando J.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González, E. Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick

2016-01-01

Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shope, J.B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, C.A.

2015-01-01

Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. December–February 95th percentile extreme significant wave heights under both climate scenarios decreased by 2100 compared to 1976–2010 historical values. Trends under both scenarios were similar, with the higher-emission RCP8.5 scenario displaying a greater decrease in extreme significant wave heights than where emissions are reduced in the RCP4.5 scenario. Central equatorial Pacific Islands displayed the greatest departure from historical values; significant wave heights decreased there by as much as 0.32 m during December–February and associated wave directions rotated approximately 30° clockwise during June–August compared to hindcast data.

Wave Processes in Arctic Seas, Observed from TerraSAR-X

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

in order to improve wave models as well as ice models applicable to a changing Arctic wave/ and ice climate . This includes observation and...fields retrieved from the TS-X image swaths. 4. “Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling”, by...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. “Wave Processes in Arctic Seas, Observed from TerraSAR-X

Determining Heat Waves from Observations and COSMO-CLM Simulations in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuruk, Cemre; Unal, Yurdanur; Irem Bilgen, Simge; Topcu, Sema; Mentes, Sibel

2016-04-01

Climate change has crucial effects on cities and especially for informal settlements, urban poor and other vulnerable groups by influencing human health, assets and livelihoods. These impacts directly result from the variations in temperature and precipitation, and emergence of heat waves, droughts, floods and fires (IPCC, 2014). Summertime episodes with extremely high air temperatures which last for several days or longer are addressed to as heat waves and affect the weather and climate in the globe. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of heat waves in terms of quantity, duration and frequency and also to evaluate the accuracy of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model coupled with MPI-ESM-LR in reproducing the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. The summer maximum temperatures of six Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations are selected between 1960 and 2013 to estimate the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. We define the heat wave if the maximum temperatures exceed a threshold value for at least three consecutive days. The threshold value is determined as 30.5 °C from the 90th percentile of all six station's observations. Then it is used in the detection of the hot days, heat waves and their durations. The results show that not only the number of heat waves but also duration of heat waves increase towards the end of the study period. Especially, a significant increase in heat wave events is evident after 1990s. An example of this situation is observed in a Kilyos station located northern part of the city. Kilyos experiences only one heat wave in the beginning of 1970s whereas the number of heat waves increases in years and reaches to the maximum value of 5 in 2000. Furthermore, Kartal as an urban area in the Asian side of the city, exhibits highest heat wave duration with 18 consecutive days in 1998. In addition to station data analyses, the local climate of Istanbul and its vicinity is simulated by CCLM model with approximately 3 km resolution between 1970 and 2005 and the verifications of the heat waves are carried out in terms of the intensity, duration and spatial extent. It is found that urban heat island increases the frequency of hot-days at the urbanized areas of Istanbul. This work is supported by TUBITAK project, number 114Y047. Keywords: Heat waves, Istanbul, local climate, COSMO-CLM, urban heat island

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, Marvin A.; Zhou, Tiehan; Ruedy, Reto; Aleinov, Igor; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tausnev, Nikolai L.; Sun, Shan; Kelley, Maxwell; Cheng, Ye

2011-01-01

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model-resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, the authors introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and nonorographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. Comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parameterization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and nonorographic gravity wave parameterizations are shown to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. The authors also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Then results are presented where the nonorographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the intertropical convergence zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, a strategy to include these effects in a climate-dependent manner is suggested.

New Gravity Wave Treatments for GISS Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, Marvin A.; Zhou, Tiehan; Ruedy, Reto; Aleinov, Igor; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tausnev, Nikolai L.; Sun, Shan; Kelley, Maxwell; Cheng, Ye

2010-01-01

Previous versions of GISS climate models have either used formulations of Rayleigh drag to represent unresolved gravity wave interactions with the model resolved flow or have included a rather complicated treatment of unresolved gravity waves that, while being climate interactive, involved the specification of a relatively large number of parameters that were not well constrained by observations and also was computationally very expensive. Here, we introduce a relatively simple and computationally efficient specification of unresolved orographic and non-orographic gravity waves and their interaction with the resolved flow. We show comparisons of the GISS model winds and temperatures with no gravity wave parametrization; with only orographic gravity wave parameterization; and with both orographic and non-orographic gravity wave parameterizations to illustrate how the zonal mean winds and temperatures converge toward observations. We also show that the specifications of orographic and nonorographic gravity waves must be different in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We then show results where the non-orographic gravity wave sources are specified to represent sources from convection in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and spontaneous emission from jet imbalances. Finally, we suggest a strategy to include these effects in a climate dependent manner.

The Geomorphology of Puget Sound Beaches

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-01

of longer-term climate variations it is referred to as a meteorological residual. An analysis of regional air pressure and water level observations...wave and tidal climate . For further details on the analy- sis rational and methods, see Finlayson (2006) The clustering analysis resulted in four profile...energy compared with incident waves on the Pacific Coast, and (2) the wave climate is tightly coupled with local wind patterns. The direction of

Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faško, Pavel; Bochníček, Oliver; Markovič, Ladislav; Švec, Marek

2016-04-01

The scenarios of climate change caused by human activity show that frequency of occurrence and extent of heat waves in the interior of Europe is increasing. Among the most exposed regions in this regard should the area of southeastern and eastern Austria and south-western Slovakia. The relatively faster increase in the number of heat waves in this area is related also to potential desertification in this region just east of the Alps, since during summer, weather fronts advancing from the west are consequently losing their original features and moderating influence. Summer weather patterns for this area should in the future more closely remind climate typical for some inland areas of southwestern, southern and southeastern Europe. A certain shift of climate zones from south to north should thus modify future climate and Slovakia. Despite the complex natural conditions the existing trends derived from results of meteorological measurements and observations are clear and they confirm warming of climate in this region. Observations and measurements in the recent years of the 21st century confirm, that heat waves are no longer rare phenomenon during summer, but are systematically appearing even in colder regions of northern Slovakia. What is very remarkable and will be necessary to pay more attention to, is the fact that these heat waves are expanding into previously unaffected areas, associated with the lack of rainfall and drought, on larger regional scale. In this study heat wave periods and individual heat events and days are statistically identified in the time series characteristics of air temperature at selected meteorological stations for the period from the mid-20th century until 2015, in case of available historical data even for longer period.

Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

At the same time, the PIs participate in Australian efforts of developing wave-ocean- ice coupled models for Antarctica . Specific new physics modules...Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling Alexander V. Babanin Swinburne University of Technology, PO Box...operational forecast. Altimeter climatology and the wave models will be used to study the current and future wind/wave and ice trends. APPROACH

Altimeter Observations of Wave Climate in the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babanin, A. V.; Liu, Q.; Zieger, S.

2016-02-01

Wind waves are a new physical phenomenon to the Arctic Seas, which in the past were covered with ice. Now, over summer months, ice coverage retreats up to high latitudes and waves are generated. The marginal open seas provide new opportunities and new problems. Navigation and other maritime activities become possible, but wave heights, storm surges and coastal erosion will likely increase. Air-sea interactions enter a completely new regime, with momentum, energy, heat, gas and moisture fluxes being moderated or produced by the waves, and impacting on upper-ocean mixing. All these issues require knowledge of the wave climate. We will report results of investigation of wave climate and its trends by means of satellite altimetry. This is a challenging, but important topic. On one hand, no statistical approach is possible since in the past for most of the Arctic Ocean there was limited wave activity. Extrapolations of the current observations into the future are not feasible, because ice cover and wind patterns in the Arctic are changing. On the other hand, information on the mean and extreme wave properties, such as wave height, period, direction, on the frequency of occurrence and duration of the storms is of great importance for oceanographic, meteorological, climate, naval and maritime applications in the Arctic Seas.

Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

2014-05-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed analysis of individual components of the energy budget over Central Europe during and before the 1994 heat wave was performed.

Thirty-four years of Hawaii wave hindcast from downscaling of climate forecast system reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Stopa, Justin E.; Hsiao, Feng; Chen, Yi-Leng; Vega, Luis; Cross, Patrick

2016-04-01

The complex wave climate of Hawaii includes a mix of seasonal swells and wind waves from all directions across the Pacific. Numerical hindcasting from surface winds provides essential space-time information to complement buoy and satellite observations for studies of the marine environment. We utilize WAVEWATCH III and SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) in a nested grid system to model basin-wide processes as well as high-resolution wave conditions around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The wind forcing includes the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for the globe and downscaled regional winds from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Long-term in-situ buoy measurements and remotely-sensed wind speeds and wave heights allow thorough assessment of the modeling approach and data products for practical application. The high-resolution WRF winds, which include orographic and land-surface effects, are validated with QuickSCAT observations from 2000 to 2009. The wave hindcast reproduces the spatial patterns of swell and wind wave events detected by altimeters on multiple platforms between 1991 and 2009 as well as the seasonal variations recorded at 16 offshore and nearshore buoys around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The hindcast captures heightened seas in interisland channels and around prominent headlands, but tends to overestimate the heights of approaching northwest swells and give lower estimates in sheltered areas. The validated high-resolution hindcast sets a baseline for future improvement of spectral wave models.

Assessing wave climate trends in the Bay of Biscay through an intercomparison of wave hindcasts and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, F.; Lecacheux, S.; Idier, D.; Charles, E.

2014-09-01

The Bay of Biscay, located in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, is exposed to energetic waves coming from the open ocean that have crucial effects on the coast. Knowledge of the wave climate and trends in this region are critical to better understand the last decade's evolution of coastal hazards and morphology and to anticipate their potential future changes. This study aims to characterize the long-term trends of the present wave climate over the second half of the twentieth century in the Bay of Biscay through a robust and homogeneous intercomparison of five-wave datasets (Corrected ERA-40 (C-ERA-40), ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), Bay Of Biscay Wave Atlas (BOBWA-10kH), ANEMOC, and Bertin and Dodet 2010)). The comparison of the quality of the datasets against offshore and nearshore measurements reveals that at offshore locations, global reanalyses slightly underestimate wave heights, while regional hindcasts overestimate wave heights, especially for the highest quantiles. At coastal locations, BOBWA-10kH is the dataset that compares the best with observations. Concerning long time-scale features, the comparison highlights that the main significant trends are similarly present in the five datasets, especially during summer for which there is an increase of significant wave heights and mean wave periods (up to +15 cm and +0.6 s over the period 1970-2001) as well as a southerly shift of wave directions (around -0.4° year-1). Over the same period, an increase of high quantiles of wave heights during the autumn season (around 3 cm year-1 for 90th quantile of significant wave heights (SWH90)) is also apparent. During winter, significant trends are much lower than during summer and autumn despite a slight increase of wave heights and periods during 1958-2001. These trends can be related to modifications in the wave-type occurrence. Finally, the trends common to the five datasets are discussed by analyzing the similarities with centennial trends issued from longer time-scale studies and exploring the various factors that could explain them.

Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

Gravity Waves Generated by Convection: A New Idealized Model Tool and Direct Validation with Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. Joan; Stephan, Claudia

2015-04-01

In climate models, gravity waves remain too poorly resolved to be directly modelled. Instead, simplified parameterizations are used to include gravity wave effects on model winds. A few climate models link some of the parameterized waves to convective sources, providing a mechanism for feedback between changes in convection and gravity wave-driven changes in circulation in the tropics and above high-latitude storms. These convective wave parameterizations are based on limited case studies with cloud-resolving models, but they are poorly constrained by observational validation, and tuning parameters have large uncertainties. Our new work distills results from complex, full-physics cloud-resolving model studies to essential variables for gravity wave generation. We use the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to study relationships between precipitation, latent heating/cooling and other cloud properties to the spectrum of gravity wave momentum flux above midlatitude storm systems. Results show the gravity wave spectrum is surprisingly insensitive to the representation of microphysics in WRF. This is good news for use of these models for gravity wave parameterization development since microphysical properties are a key uncertainty. We further use the full-physics cloud-resolving model as a tool to directly link observed precipitation variability to gravity wave generation. We show that waves in an idealized model forced with radar-observed precipitation can quantitatively reproduce instantaneous satellite-observed features of the gravity wave field above storms, which is a powerful validation of our understanding of waves generated by convection. The idealized model directly links observations of surface precipitation to observed waves in the stratosphere, and the simplicity of the model permits deep/large-area domains for studies of wave-mean flow interactions. This unique validated model tool permits quantitative studies of gravity wave driving of regional circulation and provides a new method for future development of realistic convective gravity wave parameterizations.

A multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea 1949-2014: coastDat2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groll, Nikolaus; Weisse, Ralf

2017-12-01

Long and consistent wave data are important for analysing wave climate variability and change. Moreover, such wave data are also needed in coastal and offshore design and for addressing safety-related issues at sea. Using the third-generation spectral wave model WAM a multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea covering the period 1949-2014 was produced. The hindcast is part of the coastDat database representing a consistent and homogeneous met-ocean data set. It is shown that despite not being perfect, data from the wave hindcast are generally suitable for wave climate analysis. In particular, comparisons of hindcast data with in situ and satellite observations show on average a reasonable agreement, while a tendency towards overestimation of the highest waves could be inferred. Despite these limitations, the wave hindcast still provides useful data for assessing wave climate variability and change as well as for risk analysis, in particular when conservative estimates are needed. Hindcast data are stored at the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) and can be freely accessed using the doi:10.1594/WDCC/coastDat-2_WAM-North_Sea Groll and Weisse(2016) or via the coastDat web-page http://www.coastdat.de.

Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Lifeng; Zhang, Yan

2012-05-01

A series of climate extreme events affected many parts of the US during 2011, including the severe drought in Texas, the spring tornado outbreak in the southern states, and the weeklong summer heat wave in the Central Plains. Successful prediction of these events can better inform and prepare the general public to cope with these extremes. In this study, we investigate the operational capability of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) in predicting the 2011 summer heat wave. We found that starting from April 2011, the operational CFSv2 forecast consistently suggested an elevated probability of extremely hot days during the forthcoming summer over the Central Plains, and as the summer was approaching the forecast became more certain about the summer heat wave in its geographic location, intensity and timing. This study demonstrates the capability of the new seasonal forecast system and its potential usefulness in decision making process.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; Rooijen, Arnold; Cheriton, Olivia; Dongeren, Ap

2015-08-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; van Rooijen, Arnold; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia

2015-01-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

Observations of plan-view sand ripple behavior and spectral wave climate on the inner shelf of San Pedro Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xu, J. P.

2005-01-01

Concurrent video images of sand ripples and current meter measurements of directional wave spectra are analyzed to study the relations between waves and wave-generated sand ripples. The data were collected on the inner shelf off Huntington Beach, California, at 15 m water depth, where the sea floor is comprised of well-sorted very fine sands (D50=92 ??m), during the winter of 2002. The wave climate, which was controlled by southerly swells (12-18 s period) and westerly wind waves (5-10 s period), included three wave types: (A) uni-modal, swells only; (B) bi-modal, swells dominant; and (C) bi-modal, wind-wave dominant. Each wave type has distinct relations with the plan-view shapes of ripples that are classified into five types: (1) sharp-crested, two-dimensional (2-D) ripples; (2) sharp-crested, brick-pattern, 3-D ripples; (3) bifurcated, 3-D ripples; (4) round-crested, shallow, 3-D ripples; and (5) flat bed. The ripple spacing is very small and varies between 4.5 and 7.5 cm. These ripples are anorbital as ripples in many field studies. Ripple orientation is only correlated with wave directions during strong storms (wave type C). In a poly-modal, multi-directional spectral wave environment, the use of the peak parameters (frequency, direction), a common practice when spectral wave measurements are unavailable, may lead to significant errors in boundary layer and sediment transport calculations. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Shope, James B.; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christine A.; Barnard, Patrick L.

2015-01-01

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease throughout the study area during other seasons. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30° clockwise rotation from primarily west to northwest. September-November RCP4.5 extreme mean wave directions rotate counterclockwise by approximately 30 to 45° in equatorial Micronesia; September-November RCP8.5 extreme mean wave directions within equatorial Micronesia rotate clockwise by approximately 20 to 30°. Extreme wind speeds decreased within both scenarios, with the largest decreases occurring in the September-November season. Extreme wind directions under RCP4.5 rotated clockwise by more than 60° in equatorial Micronesia during the September-November season and by approximately 30° during June-August. RCP8.5 extreme wind directions rotated counterclockwise during September-November within the same region by 30 to 50° and clockwise by 30 to 40° at one island. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude and extent of the trends generally greater for the higher (RCP8.5) scenario.

Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Hoeke, Ron

2017-01-01

Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider reef flat-fronted seaward shorelines became more accretive as all oceanographic forcing parameters increased in magnitude and exhibited large run-up increases following increasing wave heights. Island end shorelines became subject to increased flooding, erosion at Wake, and accretion at Midway with SLR. Under future conditions, windward and leeward islands are projected to become thinner as ocean facing and lagoonal shorelines erode, with leeward islands becoming more elongate. Island shorelines will change dramatically over the next century as SLR and altered wave climates drive new erosional regimes. It is vital to the sustainability of island communities that the relative magnitudes of these effects are addressed when planning for projected future climates.

Projected atoll shoreline and run-up changes in response to sea-level rise and varying large wave conditions at Wake and Midway Atolls, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Hoeke, Ron K.

2017-10-01

Atoll islands are dynamic features that respond to seasonal alterations in wave conditions and sea level. It is unclear how shoreline wave run-up and erosion patterns along these low elevation islands will respond to projected sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in wave climate over the next century, hindering communities' preparation for the future. To elucidate how these processes may respond to climate change, extreme boreal winter and summer wave conditions under future sea-level rise (SLR) and wave climate scenarios were simulated at two atolls, Wake and Midway, using a shallow-water hydrodynamic model. Nearshore wave conditions were used to compute the potential longshore sediment flux along island shorelines via the CERC empirical formula and wave-driven erosion was calculated as the divergence of the longshore drift; run-up and the locations where the run-up exceed the berm elevation were also determined. SLR is projected to predominantly drive future island morphological change and flooding. Seaward shorelines (i.e., ocean fronted shorelines directly facing incident wave energy) were projected to experience greater erosion and flooding with SLR and in hypothetical scenarios where changes to deep water wave directions were altered, as informed by previous climate change forced Pacific wave modeling efforts. These changes caused nearshore waves to become more shore-normal, increasing wave attack along previously protected shorelines. With SLR, leeward shorelines (i.e., an ocean facing shoreline but sheltered from incident wave energy) became more accretive on windward islands and marginally more erosive along leeward islands. These shorelines became more accretionary and subject to more flooding with nearshore waves becoming more shore-normal. Lagoon shorelines demonstrated the greatest SLR-driven increase in erosion and run-up. They exhibited the greatest relative change with increasing wave heights where both erosion and run-up magnitudes increased. Wider reef flat-fronted seaward shorelines became more accretive as all oceanographic forcing parameters increased in magnitude and exhibited large run-up increases following increasing wave heights. Island end shorelines became subject to increased flooding, erosion at Wake, and accretion at Midway with SLR. Under future conditions, windward and leeward islands are projected to become thinner as ocean facing and lagoonal shorelines erode, with leeward islands becoming more elongate. Island shorelines will change dramatically over the next century as SLR and altered wave climates drive new erosional regimes. It is vital to the sustainability of island communities that the relative magnitudes of these effects are addressed when planning for projected future climates.

Atmospheric Transport and Mixing linked to Rossby Wave Breaking in GFDL Dynamical Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Barnes, E. A.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric transport and mixing plays an important role in the global energy balance and the distribution of health-related chemical constituents. Previous studies suggest a close linkage between large-scale transport and Rossby wave breaking (RWB). In this work, we use the GFDL spectral dynamical core to investigate this relationship and study the response of RWB-related transport in different climate scenarios. In a standard control run, we quantify the contribution of RWB to the total transport and mixing of an idealized tracer. In addition, we divide the contribution further into the two types of RWB - anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) and cyclonic wave breaking (CWB) -- and contrast their efficiency at transport and mixing. Our results are compared to a previous study in which the transport ability of the two types of RWB is studied for individual baroclinic wave life-cycles. In a series of sensitivity runs, we study the response of RWB-related transport and mixing to various states of the jet streams. The responses of the mean strength, frequency, and the efficiency of RWB-related transport are documented and the implications for the transport and mixing in a warmer climate are discussed.

XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

2012-04-01

Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which generates the high waves in the S-E Black sea. The climate projections show that the frequency of such atmospheric pattern will not principally increase. The recent probability of the extreme wave height (exceeding 8 to10 m) in the S-W Black sea (~1 occurrence per 10 years) will not be much worse in XXI century. Similar conclusion is true for the storm surges along the Bulgarian coastline. Expected sea level rise in the Black sea basin for XXI century due to regional climate changes is about 2 mm per year (±50%). However, some Black sea subregions (such as Odessa and Varna bay) are characterized by fivefold sea level rise because of the local land subsidence. So, this geomorphologic effect is the most dangerous local consequence for the sustainable development and management of the coastal zone in such subregions. This study was supported by EC project "THESEUS".

Study of gravity waves propagation in the thermosphere of Mars based on MAVEN/NGIMS density measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vals, M.

2017-09-01

We use MAVEN/NGIMS CO2 density measurements to analyse gravity waves in the thermosphere of Mars. In particular the seasonal/latitudinal variability of their amplitude is studied and interpreted. Key background parameters controlling the activity of gravity waves are analysed with the help of the Mars Climate Database (MCD). Gravity waves activity presents a good anti-correlation to the temperature variability retrieved from the MCD. An analysis at pressure levels is ongoing.

Heat waves in Africa and India: a multidisciplinary approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janicot, Serge; Moron, Vincent; Oueslati, Boutheina; Pohl, Benjamin; Rome, Sandra; Lalou, Richard; Dos Santos, Stéphanie

2017-04-01

While the heat wave impacts on public health have been widely addressed in developed countries, less effort has been made to detect them and evaluate their impacts in least developed countries, especially in Africa and to a lesser extent in India, where climate is warmer and adaptation capacities are low. Climate and epidemiologic analyses show however that this problem is already present and climate projections indicate that such events should increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades. However climate models display important temperature and radiative biases over this region, which must be reduced to provide robust information on the future evolution of heat waves. Moreover early warning systems have to face up to institutional malfunctions. This talk lays the elements for a multidisciplinary approach of tackling heat wave occurrences.

Future Heat Waves In Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

Future Changes in Cyclonic Wave Climate in the North Atlantic, with a Focus on the French West Indies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belmadani, A.; Palany, P.; Dalphinet, A.; Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a major environmental hazard in numerous small islands such as the French West Indies (Guadeloupe, Martinique, St-Martin, St-Barthélémy). The intense associated winds, which can reach 300 km/h or more, can cause serious damage in the islands and their coastlines. In particular, the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to severe storm surge and coastal flooding. Here we report on future changes in cyclonic wave climate for the North Atlantic basin, as a preliminary step for downscaled projections over the French West Indies at sub-kilometer-scale resolution. A new configuration of the Météo-France ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model on a stretched grid with increased resolution in the tropical North Atlantic ( 15 km) is able to reproduce the observed distribution of maximum surface winds, including extreme events corresponding to Category 5 hurricanes. Ensemble historical simulations (1985-2014, 5 members) and future projections with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP8.5 scenario (2051-2080, 5 members) are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) over the North Atlantic basin. A lower 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate distant mid-latitude swells into a higher 10-km resolution grid over the cyclonic basin. Wave model performance is evaluated over a few TC case studies including the Sep-Oct 2016 Category 5 Hurricane Matthew, using an operational version of ARPEGE at similar resolution to force MFWAM together with wave buoy data. The latter are also used to compute multi-year wave statistics, which then allow assessing the realism of the MFWAM historical runs. For each climate scenario and ensemble member, a simulation of the cyclonic season (July to mid-November) is performed every year. The simulated sea states over the North Atlantic cyclonic basin over 150 historical simulations are compared to their counterparts over 150 future simulations. Changes in cyclonic wave climate are discussed in the light of concurrent changes in TC activity, inferred from objective tracking of individual TCs.

Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

2016-02-01

Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

Reminiscences on the study of wind waves

PubMed Central

MITSUYASU, Hisashi

2015-01-01

The wind blowing over sea surface generates tiny wind waves. They develop with time and space absorbing wind energy, and become huge wind waves usually referred to ocean surface waves. The wind waves cause not only serious sea disasters but also take important roles in the local and global climate changes by affecting the fluxes of momentum, heat and gases (e.g. CO2) through the air-sea boundary. The present paper reviews the selected studies on wind waves conducted by our group in the Research Institute for Applied Mechanics (RIAM), Kyushu University. The themes discussed are interactions between water waves and winds, the energy spectrum of wind waves, nonlinear properties of wind waves, and the effects of surfactant on some air-sea interaction phenomena. PMID:25864467

Reminiscences on the study of wind waves.

PubMed

Mitsuyasu, Hisashi

2015-01-01

The wind blowing over sea surface generates tiny wind waves. They develop with time and space absorbing wind energy, and become huge wind waves usually referred to ocean surface waves. The wind waves cause not only serious sea disasters but also take important roles in the local and global climate changes by affecting the fluxes of momentum, heat and gases (e.g. CO2) through the air-sea boundary. The present paper reviews the selected studies on wind waves conducted by our group in the Research Institute for Applied Mechanics (RIAM), Kyushu University. The themes discussed are interactions between water waves and winds, the energy spectrum of wind waves, nonlinear properties of wind waves, and the effects of surfactant on some air-sea interaction phenomena.

Effect of climate change on morphology around a port

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharathan Radhamma, R.; Deo, M. C.

2017-12-01

It is well known that with the construction of a port and harbour structure the natural shoreline gets interrupted and this disturbs the surrounding coastal morphology. Added to this concern is another one of recent origin, namely, the likely impact of climate change induced by global warming. The present work addresses this issue by describing a case study at New Mangalore Port situated along the west coast of India. The harbour was formed by constructing two breakwaters along either side of the port since the year 1975. We have first determined the rate of change of the shoreline surrounding the port using historic satellite imageries over a period of 36 years. Thereafter a numerical shoreline change model: LITPACK was used to do the same and it was forced by waves simulated over a period of past 36 years varying from 1979 to 2016 and future 36 years ranging from 2016 to 2052. The wave simulation was done with the help of numerical wave model: Mike21-SW which was driven by the wind from a regional climate model called CORDEX. This climate model was earlier run for a moderate global warming pathway called: RCP-4.5. The analysis of satellite imageries indicated that in the past the shoreline change varied from -1.69 m/year to 2.56 m/year with an uncertainty of ± 0.35 m/year and approximately half of the coastal stretch faced extensive erosion. It was found that the wind and waves at this region would intensify in future and also raise the probability of occurrence of high waves. As per the numerical shoreline modelling this would give rise to a much enhanced rate of erosion, namely -2.87 m/year to -3.62 m/year. This would call for a modified shoreline management strategy around the port area. The study highlights the importance of considering potential changes in wind and wave forcing because of the climate change in evaluating future rates of shoreline changes around a port and harbour structure.

Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

A wall-free climate unit for acoustic levitators.

PubMed

Schlegel, M C; Wenzel, K-J; Sarfraz, A; Panne, U; Emmerling, F

2012-05-01

Acoustic levitation represents the physical background of trapping a sample in a standing acoustic wave with no contact to the wave generating device. For the last three decades, sample holders based on this effect have been commonly used for contact free handling of samples coupled with a number of analytical techniques. In this study, a wall-free climate unit is presented, which allows the control of the environmental conditions of suspended samples. The insulation is based on a continuous cold/hot gas flow around the sample and thus does not require any additional isolation material. This provides a direct access to the levitated sample and circumvents any influence of the climate unit material to the running analyses.

A wall-free climate unit for acoustic levitators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, M. C.; Wenzel, K.-J.; Sarfraz, A.; Panne, U.; Emmerling, F.

2012-05-01

Acoustic levitation represents the physical background of trapping a sample in a standing acoustic wave with no contact to the wave generating device. For the last three decades, sample holders based on this effect have been commonly used for contact free handling of samples coupled with a number of analytical techniques. In this study, a wall-free climate unit is presented, which allows the control of the environmental conditions of suspended samples. The insulation is based on a continuous cold/hot gas flow around the sample and thus does not require any additional isolation material. This provides a direct access to the levitated sample and circumvents any influence of the climate unit material to the running analyses.

A Self-Organizing Maps approach to assess the wave climate of the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Scotton, Carlotta; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Andrea; Bergamasco, Filippo; Bonaldo, Davide; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro

2015-04-01

The assessment of wave conditions at sea is fruitful for many research fields in marine and atmospheric sciences and for the human activities in the marine environment. To this end, in the last decades the observational network, that mostly relies on buoys, satellites and other probes from fixed platforms, has been integrated with numerical models outputs, which allow to compute the parameters of sea states (e.g. the significant wave height, the mean and peak wave periods, the mean and peak wave directions) over wider regions. Apart from the collection of wave parameters observed at specific sites or modeled on arbitrary domains, the data processing performed to infer the wave climate at those sites is a crucial step in order to provide high quality data and information to the community. In this context, several statistical techniques has been used to model the randomness of wave parameters. While univariate and bivariate probability distribution functions (pdf) are routinely used, multivariate pdfs that model the probability structure of more than two wave parameters are hardly managed. Recently, the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) technique has been successfully applied to represent the multivariate random wave climate at sites around the Iberian peninsula and the South America continent. Indeed, the visualization properties offered by this technique allow to get the dependencies between the different parameters by visual inspection. In this study, carried out in the frame of the Italian National Flagship Project "RITMARE", we take advantage of the SOM technique to assess the multivariate wave climate over the Adriatic Sea, a semi-enclosed basin in the north-eastern Mediterranean Sea, where winds from North-East (called "Bora") and South-East (called "Sirocco") mainly blow causing sea storms. By means of the SOM techniques we can observe the multivariate character of the typical Bora and Sirocco wave features in the Adriatic Sea. To this end, we used both observed and modeled wave parameters. The "Acqua Alta" oceanographic tower in the northern Adriatic Sea (ISMAR-CNR) and the Italian Data Buoy Network (RON, managed by ISPRA) off the western Adriatic coasts furnished the wave parameters at specific sites of interest. Widespread wave parameters were obtained by means of a numerical SWAN wave model that was implemented on the whole Adriatic Sea with a 6x6 km2 resolution and forced by the high resolution COSMO-I7 atmospheric model for the period 2007-2013.

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2016-01-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season. PMID:28943813

International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia

2017-05-01

Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarnes, Ole Johan; Reistad, Magnar; Breivik, Øyvind; Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta; Ingolf Eide, Lars; Gramstad, Odin; Magnusson, Anne Karin; Natvig, Bent; Vanem, Erik

2017-04-01

Wind field ensembles from six CMIP5 models force wave model time slices of the northeast Atlantic over the last three decades of the 20th and the 21st centuries. The future wave climate is investigated by considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The CMIP5 model selection is based on their ability to reconstruct the present (1971-2000) extratropical cyclone activity, but increased spatial resolution has also been emphasized. In total, the study comprises 35 wave model integrations, each about 30 years long, in total more than 1000 years. Here annual statistics of significant wave height are analyzed, including mean parameters and upper percentiles. There is general agreement among all models considered that the mean significant wave height is expected to decrease by the end of the 21st century. This signal is statistically significant also for higher percentiles, but less evident for annual maxima. The RCP8.5 scenario yields the strongest reduction in wave height. The exception to this is the north western part of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, where receding ice cover gives longer fetch and higher waves. The upper percentiles are reduced less than the mean wave height, suggesting that the future wave climate has higher variance than the historical period.

The Effect of the South Asia Monsoon on the Wind Sea and Swell Patterns in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro

2015-04-01

Ocean surface gravity waves have a considerable impact on coastal and offshore infrastructures, and are determinant on ship design and routing. But waves also play an important role on the coastal dynamics and beach erosion, and modulate the exchanges of momentum, and mass and other scalars between the atmosphere and the ocean. A constant quantitative and qualitative knowledge of the wave patterns is therefore needed. There are two types of waves at the ocean surface: wind-sea and swell. Wind-sea waves are growing waves under the direct influence of local winds; as these waves propagate away from their generation area, or when their phase speed overcomes the local wind speed, they are called swell. Swell waves can propagate thousands of kilometers across entire ocean basins. The qualitative analysis of ocean surface waves has been the focus of several recent studies, from the wave climate to the air-sea interaction community. The reason for this interest lies mostly in the fact that waves have an impact on the lower atmosphere, and that the air-sea coupling is different depending on the wave regime. Waves modulate the exchange of momentum, heat, and mass across the air-sea interface, and this modulation is different and dependent on the prevalence of one type of waves: wind sea or swell. For fully developed seas the coupling between the ocean-surface and the overlaying atmosphere can be seen as quasi-perfect, in a sense that the momentum transfer and energy dissipation at the ocean surface are in equilibrium. This can only occur in special areas of the Ocean, either in marginal seas, with limited fetch, or in Open Ocean, in areas with strong and persistent wind speed with little or no variation in direction. One of these areas is the Arabian Sea, along the coasts of Somalia, Yemen and Oman. The wind climate in the Arabian sea is under the direct influence of the South Asia monsoon, where the wind blows steady from the northeast during the boreal winter, and reverses direction to blow also steady but stronger from the southwest during the boreal summer months. During the summer monsoon the wind pattern in the north Arabian Sea is rather intricate, with a large scale synoptic forcing with a high pressure cell over the ocean and a thermal low pressure system in-land, but also with at least two low-level wind jets, the Finlater (or Somali) jet, and the Oman coastal jet. This wind pattern leads to a particular wave pattern and seasonal variability. The monsoon wind pattern has a direct influence in the wave climate in that area, The particular wind-sea and swell climates of the Arabian Sea are presented. The study is based on the ERA-Interim wave reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

numerical broadband modelling of ocean waves, from 1 to 300 s: implications for seismic wave sources and wave climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardhuin, F.; Stutzmann, E.; Gualtieri, L.

2014-12-01

Ocean waves provide most of the energy that feeds the continuous vertical oscillations of the solid Earth. Three period bands are usually identified. The hum contains periods longer than 30 s, and the primary and secondary peaks are usually centered around 15 and 5 s, respectively. Motions in all three bands are recorded everywhere on our planet and can provide information on both the solid Earth structure and the ocean wave climate over the past century. Here we describe recent efforts to extend the range of validity of ocean wave models to cover periods from 1 to 300 s (Ardhuin et al., Ocean Modelling 2014), and the resulting public database of ocean wave spectra (http://tinyurl.com/iowagaftp/HINDCAST/ ). We particularly discuss the sources of uncertainty for building a numerical model of acoustic and seismic noise on this knowledge of ocean wave spectra. For acoustic periods shorter than 3 seconds, the main uncertainties are the directional distributions of wave energy (Ardhuin et al., J. Acoust. Soc. Amer. 2013). For intermediate periods (3 to 25 s), the propagation properties of seismic waves are probably the main source of error when producing synthetic spectra of Rayleigh waves (Ardhuin et al. JGR 2011, Stutzmann et al. GJI 2012). For the longer periods (25 to 300 s), the poor knowledge of the bottom topography details may be the limiting factor for estimating hum spectra or inverting hum measurements in properties of the infragravity wave field. All in all, the space and time variability of recorded seismic and acoustic spectra is generally well reproduced in the band 3 to 300 s, and work on shorter periods is under way. This direct model can be used to search for missing noise sources, such as wave scattering in the marginal ice zone, find events relevant for solid earth studies (e.g. Obrebski et al. JGR 2013) or invert wave climate properties from microseismic records. The figure shows measured spectra of the vertical ground acceleration, and modeled result for the primary and secondary mechanisms using our numerical wave model. (a) Median ground acceleration power spectra (LHZ channel) at the SSB seismic station (Geoscope Network), for the month of January 2008. (b) Spectrogram of modeled ground displacement and (c) measured spectrogram.

Numerical Modeling of Geomorphic Change on Sandy Coasts as a Function of Changing Wave Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. N.; McNamara, D.; Murray, A. B.; Lovering, J.

2009-12-01

Climate change is expected to affect sandy coast geomorphology through two principal mechanisms: (1) sea level rise, which affects cross-shore sediment transport tending to drive shoreline retreat, and (2) alteration of statistical distributions in ocean storm wave climate (deep water wave height, period, and direction), which affects longshore sediment transport gradients that result in shoreline erosion and accretion. To address potential climate change-driven effects on longshore sediment transport gradients, we are developing techniques to link various numerical models of wave transformation with several different longshore sediment transport formulae in accordance with the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) project. Results of the various wave transformation models are compared to field observations of cross-shelf wave transformation along the North Florida Atlantic coast for purposes of model verification and calibration. Initial comparisons between wave-transformation methods (assumption of shore-parallel contours, simple wave ray tracing, and the SWAN spectral wave model) on artificially constructed continental shelves reveal an increasing discrepancy of results for increasing complexity of shelf bathymetry. When the more advanced SWAN spectral wave model is coupled with a simple CERC-type formulation of longshore sediment transport and applied to a real coast with complex offshore shoals (Cape Canaveral region of the North Florida Atlantic Coast), the patterns of erosion and accretion agree with results of the simplest wave-propagation models for some wave conditions, but disagree in others. Model simulations in which wave height and period are held constant show that locations of divergence and convergence of sediment flux shift with deep water wave-approach angle in ways that would not always be predicted using less sophisticated wave propagation models. Thus, predicting long-term local shoreline change on actual coastlines featuring complex bathymetry requires the extra computational effort to run the more advanced model over a wide range of wave conditions.

Simulated heat waves affected alpine grassland only in combination with drought.

PubMed

De Boeck, Hans J; Bassin, Seraina; Verlinden, Maya; Zeiter, Michaela; Hiltbrunner, Erika

2016-01-01

The Alpine region is warming fast, and concurrently, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are increasing. It is currently unclear whether alpine ecosystems are sensitive or resistant to such extremes. We subjected Swiss alpine grassland communities to heat waves with varying intensity by transplanting monoliths to four different elevations (2440-660 m above sea level) for 17 d. Half of these were regularly irrigated while the other half were deprived of irrigation to additionally induce a drought at each site. Heat waves had no significant impacts on fluorescence (Fv /Fm , a stress indicator), senescence and aboveground productivity if irrigation was provided. However, when heat waves coincided with drought, the plants showed clear signs of stress, resulting in vegetation browning and reduced phytomass production. This likely resulted from direct drought effects, but also, as measurements of stomatal conductance and canopy temperatures suggest, from increased high-temperature stress as water scarcity decreased heat mitigation through transpiration. The immediate responses to heat waves (with or without droughts) recorded in these alpine grasslands were similar to those observed in the more extensively studied grasslands from temperate climates. Responses following climate extremes may differ in alpine environments, however, because the short growing season likely constrains recovery. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

2008-07-01

Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003—surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5°C (96°F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8°C (93°F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001 2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

The QBO in Two GISS Global Climate Models: 1. Generation of the QBO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Balachandra, Nambath; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Lean, Judith

2014-01-01

The adjustment of parameterized gravity waves associated with model convection and finer vertical resolution has made possible the generation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in two Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) models, GISS Middle Atmosphere Global Climate Model III and a climate/middle atmosphere version of Model E2. Both extend from the surface to 0.002 hPa, with 2deg × 2.5deg resolution and 102 layers. Many realistic features of the QBO are simulated, including magnitude and variability of its period and amplitude. The period itself is affected by the magnitude of parameterized convective gravity wave momentum fluxes and interactive ozone (which also affects the QBO amplitude and variability), among other forcings. Although varying sea surface temperatures affect the parameterized momentum fluxes, neither aspect is responsible for the modeled variation in QBO period. Both the parameterized and resolved waves act to produce the respective easterly and westerly wind descent, although their effect is offset in altitude at each level. The modeled and observed QBO influences on tracers in the stratosphere, such as ozone, methane, and water vapor are also discussed. Due to the link between the gravity wave parameterization and the models' convection, and the dependence on the ozone field, the models may also be used to investigate how the QBO may vary with climate change.

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006.

PubMed

Golden, Jay S; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

2008-07-01

Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003-surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5 degrees C (96 degrees F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8 degrees C (93 degrees F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001-2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

2017-04-01

At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the large scale pattern, can provide related compact and meaningful information. In addition, the availability for the area of interest of a 20-year long dataset of directional spectra (in frequency and direction) offers an independent, but theoretically corresponding and significantly long dataset, allowing to penetrate the wave problem through different perspectives. In particular, we investigate the contribution of the individual wave systems that modulate the variability of waves in the Adriatic Sea. A characterization of wave conditions based on wave spectra in fact brings out a more detailed description of the different wave regimes, their associated meteorological conditions and their variation in time and geographical space.

Future heat waves due to climate change threaten the survival of Posidonia oceanica seedlings.

PubMed

Guerrero-Meseguer, Laura; Marín, Arnaldo; Sanz-Lázaro, Carlos

2017-11-01

Extreme weather events are major drivers of ecological change, and their occurrence is likely to increase due to climate change. The transient increases in atmospheric temperatures are leading to a greater occurrence of heat waves, extreme events that can produce a substantial warming of water, especially in enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we tested the effects of current and predicted heat waves on the early stages of development of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Temperatures above 27 °C limited the growth of the plant by inhibiting its photosynthetic system. It suffered a reduction in leaf growth and faster leaf senescence, and in some cases mortality. This study demonstrates that the greater frequency of heat waves, along with anticipated temperature rises in coming decades, are expected to negatively affect the germination of P. oceanica seedlings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Six climate change-related events in the United States accounted for about $14 billion in lost lives and health costs.

PubMed

Knowlton, Kim; Rotkin-Ellman, Miriam; Geballe, Linda; Max, Wendy; Solomon, Gina M

2011-11-01

The future health costs associated with predicted climate change-related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods are projected to be enormous. This article estimates the health costs associated with six climate change-related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009. The six case studies came from categories of climate change-related events projected to worsen with continued global warming-ozone pollution, heat waves, hurricanes, infectious disease outbreaks, river flooding, and wildfires. We estimate that the health costs exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million. This reflects more than 760,000 encounters with the health care system. Our analysis provides scientists and policy makers with a methodology to use in estimating future health costs related to climate change and highlights the growing need for public health preparedness.

Wave climate and nearshore lakebed response, Illinois Beach State Park, Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, J.S.

1994-01-01

Only under these major storm conditions is there a realistic potential for wave-lakebed interaction (and associated wind-driven currents) to cause a significant net modification to the outer nearshore lakebed which, in turn, may promulgate change in the inner nearshore (surf) zone. Analysis of bathymetric and sediment grain-size data, used in conjuction with published wave hindcast data, wave propagation modeling, and previous studies in the area, indicates that this potential occurs, most likely, on a scale of years. -from Author

Projected changes, climate change signal, and uncertainties in the CMIP5-based projections of ocean surface wave heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaolan; Feng, Yang; Swail, Val R.

2016-04-01

Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, wave observations are available only at limited locations and cover only the recent few decades. Also, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models. In a recent study, we used a multivariate regression model with lagged dependent variable to make statistical global projections of changes in significant wave heights (Hs) using mean sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 climate models for the twenty-first century. The statistical model was calibrated and validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and SLP for the period 1981-2010. The results show Hs increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in southern hemisphere high-latitudes. Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one-in-10-year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world (e.g., the Chilean coast, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico). More recently, we used the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multi-model ensembles of statistical Hs simulations globally, which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of SLP. In a 4-model 3-run ensemble, the 4-model common signal of climate change is found to strengthen over time, as would be expected. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant over 16.6%, 55.0% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005, 2050 and 2099, respectively. For the annual maximum, the signal is much weaker. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific, featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate model uncertainty (i.e., inter-model variability) is significant over 99.9% of the area; its magnitude is comparable to or greater than the climate change signal by 2099 over most areas, except in the eastern tropical Pacific where the signal is much larger. In a 20-model 2-scenario single-run ensemble of statistical Hs simulations for the period 2006-2099, the model uncertainty is found to be significant globally; it is about 10 times as large as the scenario uncertainty between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Wave climate, sediment supply and the depth of the sand-mud transition: A global survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

George, D.A.; Hill, P.S.

2008-01-01

The influences of wave climate and sediment supply on the depths of sand-mud transitions (hSMT) are investigated. Depths of sand-mud transitions (SMT) are based on published granulometric data from surface samples gathered from 14 sites in different wave-dominated coastal environments with fluvial input, including high energy (Columbia, Eel, Russian, San Lorenzo, Copper, and Nepean rivers), moderate energy (Ebro, Nile, Santa Clara, Tseng-wen and Kao-ping rivers), and low energy (Po, Pescara and Tronto rivers) regimes. Geometric mean diameter (GMD) and mud percent are compiled from samples along shore-normal transects, and significant correlation is found between these two textural descriptors. Nominally, the SMT is defined as the transition from GMD > 63????m to 25% mud. This dual definition is applied to the 14 systems, and hSMT is tabulated for each system. Correlation is found between hSMT and the depth at which wave-induced bottom shear stress equals the critical erosion shear stress of the largest mud particles and also between hSMT and significant wave height. Lack of correlation between hSMT and sediment load of nearby rivers indicates either that the influence of sediment supply on depth of the sand-mud transition is small or is not adequately represented in this study. Shelf width and slope do not correlate with residuals from a formalized linear relationship between hSMT and significant wave height. The relationship between hSMT and wave climate is useful for calibration of numerical models of erosion and deposition in wave-dominated coastal environments, for prediction of seabed properties in remote or inaccessible areas, and for reconstruction of paleodepth based on facies changes from sand to mud in ancient rocks. ?? 2008.

The interactive roles of mastery climate and performance climate in predicting intrinsic motivation.

PubMed

Buch, R; Nerstad, C G L; Säfvenbom, R

2017-02-01

This study examined the interplay between perceived mastery and performance climates in predicting increased intrinsic motivation. The results of a two-wave longitudinal study comprising of 141 individuals from three military academies revealed a positive relationship between a perceived mastery climate and increased intrinsic motivation only for individuals who perceived a low performance climate. This finding suggests a positive relationship between a perceived mastery climate and increased intrinsic motivation only when combined with low perceptions of a performance climate. Hence, introducing a performance climate in addition to a mastery climate can be an undermining motivational strategy, as it attenuates the positive relationship between a mastery climate and increased intrinsic motivation. Implications for future research and practice are discussed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Bayesian-Based System to Assess Wave-Driven Flooding Hazards on Coral Reef-Lined Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, S. G.; Storlazzi, C. D.; van Dongeren, A. R.; Tissier, M. F. S.; Reniers, A. J. H. M.

2017-12-01

Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, "XBNH") was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a "Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments" (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.