Teaching ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation—Part 2: swell forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitford, Dennis J.

2002-05-01

This paper, the second of a two-part series, introduces undergraduate students to ocean wave forecasting using interactive computer-generated visualization and animation. Verbal descriptions and two-dimensional illustrations are often insufficient for student comprehension. Fortunately, the introduction of computers in the geosciences provides a tool for addressing this problem. Computer-generated visualization and animation, accompanied by oral explanation, have been shown to be a pedagogical improvement to more traditional methods of instruction. Cartographic science and other disciplines using geographical information systems have been especially aggressive in pioneering the use of visualization and animation, whereas oceanography has not. This paper will focus on the teaching of ocean swell wave forecasting, often considered a difficult oceanographic topic due to the mathematics and physics required, as well as its interdependence on time and space. Several MATLAB ® software programs are described and offered to visualize and animate group speed, frequency dispersion, angular dispersion, propagation, and wave height forecasting of deep water ocean swell waves. Teachers may use these interactive visualizations and animations without requiring an extensive background in computer programming.

Visualizing Coastal Erosion, Overwash and Coastal Flooding in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young Morse, R.; Shyka, T.

2017-12-01

Powerful East Coast storms and their associated storm tides and large, battering waves can lead to severe coastal change through erosion and re-deposition of beach sediment. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has modeled such potential for geological response using a storm-impact scale that compares predicted elevations of hurricane-induced water levels and associated wave action to known elevations of coastal topography. The resulting storm surge and wave run-up hindcasts calculate dynamic surf zone collisions with dune structures using discrete regime categories of; "collision" (dune erosion), "overwash" and "inundation". The National Weather Service (NWS) recently began prototyping this empirical technique under the auspices of the North Atlantic Regional Team (NART). Real-time erosion and inundation forecasts were expanded to include both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones along vulnerable beaches (hotspots) on the New England coast. Preliminary results showed successful predictions of impact during hurricane Sandy and several intense Nor'easters. The forecasts were verified using observational datasets, including "ground truth" reports from Emergency Managers and storm-based, dune profile measurements organized through a Maine Sea Grant partnership. In an effort to produce real-time visualizations of this forecast output, the Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems (NERACOOS) and the Gulf of Maine Research Institute (GMRI) partnered with NART to create graphical products of wave run-up levels for each New England "hotspot". The resulting prototype system updates the forecasts twice daily and allows users the ability to adjust atmospheric and sea state input into the calculations to account for model errors and forecast uncertainty. This talk will provide an overview of the empirical wave run-up calculations, the system used to produce forecast output and a demonstration of the new web based tool.

Demonstrating the Alaska Ocean Observing System in Prince William Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoch, G. Carl; McCammon, Molly

2013-07-01

The Alaska Ocean Observing System and the Oil Spill Recovery Institute developed a demonstration project over a 5 year period in Prince William Sound. The primary goal was to develop a quasi-operational system that delivers weather and ocean information in near real time to diverse user communities. This observing system now consists of atmospheric and oceanic sensors, and a new generation of computer models to numerically simulate and forecast weather, waves, and ocean circulation. A state of the art data management system provides access to these products from one internet portal at http://www.aoos.org. The project culminated in a 2009 field experiment that evaluated the observing system and performance of the model forecasts. Observations from terrestrial weather stations and weather buoys validated atmospheric circulation forecasts. Observations from wave gages on weather buoys validated forecasts of significant wave heights and periods. There was an emphasis on validation of surface currents forecasted by the ocean circulation model for oil spill response and search and rescue applications. During the 18 day field experiment a radar array mapped surface currents and drifting buoys were deployed. Hydrographic profiles at fixed stations, and by autonomous vehicles along transects, were made to acquire measurements through the water column. Terrestrial weather stations were the most reliable and least costly to operate, and in situ ocean sensors were more costly and considerably less reliable. The radar surface current mappers were the least reliable and most costly but provided the assimilation and validation data that most improved ocean circulation forecasts. We describe the setting of Prince William Sound and the various observational platforms and forecast models of the observing system, and discuss recommendations for future development.

Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

2018-01-01

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

Optimal Control of a Surge-Mode WEC in Random Waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chertok, Allan; Ceberio, Olivier; Staby, Bill

2016-08-30

The objective of this project was to develop one or more real-time feedback and feed-forward (MPC) control algorithms for an Oscillating Surge Wave Converter (OSWC) developed by RME called SurgeWEC™ that leverages recent innovations in wave energy converter (WEC) control theory to maximize power production in random wave environments. The control algorithms synthesized innovations in dynamic programming and nonlinear wave dynamics using anticipatory wave sensors and localized sensor measurements; e.g. position and velocity of the WEC Power Take Off (PTO), with predictive wave forecasting data. The result was an advanced control system that uses feedback or feed-forward data from anmore » array of sensor channels comprised of both localized and deployed sensors fused into a single decision process that optimally compensates for uncertainties in the system dynamics, wave forecasts, and sensor measurement errors.« less

Coupling of wave and circulation models in coastal-ocean predicting systems: A case study for the German Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Wahle, Kathrin

2015-04-01

This study addresses the coupling between wind wave and circulation models on the example of the German Bight and its coastal area called the Wadden Sea (the area between the barrier islands and the coast). This topic reflects the increased interest in operational oceanography to reduce prediction errors of state estimates at coastal scales. The uncertainties in most of the presently used models result from the nonlinear feedback between strong tidal currents and wind-waves, which can no longer be ignored, in particular in the coastal zone where its role seems to be dominant. A nested modelling system is used in the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht to producing reliable now- and short-term forecasts of ocean state variables, including wind waves and hydrodynamics. In this study we present analysis of wave and hydrographic observations, as well as the results of numerical simulations. The data base includes ADCP observations and continuous measurements from data stations. The individual and collective role of wind, waves and tidal forcing are quantified. The performance of the forecasting system is illustrated for the cases of several extreme events. Effects of ocean waves on coastal circulation and SST simulations are investigated considering wave-dependent stress and wave breaking parameterization during extreme events, e.g. hurricane Xavier in December, 2013. Also the effect which the circulation exerts on the wind waves is tested for the coastal areas using different parameterizations. The improved skill resulting from the new developments in the forecasting system, in particular during extreme events, justifies further enhancements of the coastal pre-operational system for the North Sea and German Bight.

Thirty-four years of Hawaii wave hindcast from downscaling of climate forecast system reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Stopa, Justin E.; Hsiao, Feng; Chen, Yi-Leng; Vega, Luis; Cross, Patrick

2016-04-01

The complex wave climate of Hawaii includes a mix of seasonal swells and wind waves from all directions across the Pacific. Numerical hindcasting from surface winds provides essential space-time information to complement buoy and satellite observations for studies of the marine environment. We utilize WAVEWATCH III and SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) in a nested grid system to model basin-wide processes as well as high-resolution wave conditions around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The wind forcing includes the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for the globe and downscaled regional winds from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Long-term in-situ buoy measurements and remotely-sensed wind speeds and wave heights allow thorough assessment of the modeling approach and data products for practical application. The high-resolution WRF winds, which include orographic and land-surface effects, are validated with QuickSCAT observations from 2000 to 2009. The wave hindcast reproduces the spatial patterns of swell and wind wave events detected by altimeters on multiple platforms between 1991 and 2009 as well as the seasonal variations recorded at 16 offshore and nearshore buoys around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The hindcast captures heightened seas in interisland channels and around prominent headlands, but tends to overestimate the heights of approaching northwest swells and give lower estimates in sheltered areas. The validated high-resolution hindcast sets a baseline for future improvement of spectral wave models.

Operational wave now- and forecast in the German Bight as a basis for the assessment of wave-induced hydrodynamic loads on coastal dikes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, Norman; Fröhle, Peter

2017-12-01

The knowledge of the wave-induced hydrodynamic loads on coastal dikes including their temporal and spatial resolution on the dike in combination with actual water levels is of crucial importance of any risk-based early warning system. As a basis for the assessment of the wave-induced hydrodynamic loads, an operational wave now- and forecast system is set up that consists of i) available field measurements from the federal and local authorities and ii) data from numerical simulation of waves in the German Bight using the SWAN wave model. In this study, results of the hindcast of deep water wave conditions during the winter storm on 5-6 December, 2013 (German name `Xaver') are shown and compared with available measurements. Moreover field measurements of wave run-up from the local authorities at a sea dike on the German North Sea Island of Pellworm are presented and compared against calculated wave run-up using the EurOtop (2016) approach.

Error quantification of abnormal extreme high waves in Operational Oceanographic System in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Sang-Hun; Kim, Jinah; Heo, Ki-Young; Park, Kwang-Soon

2017-04-01

In winter season, large-height swell-like waves have occurred on the East coast of Korea, causing property damages and loss of human life. It is known that those waves are generated by a local strong wind made by temperate cyclone moving to eastward in the East Sea of Korean peninsula. Because the waves are often occurred in the clear weather, in particular, the damages are to be maximized. Therefore, it is necessary to predict and forecast large-height swell-like waves to prevent and correspond to the coastal damages. In Korea, an operational oceanographic system (KOOS) has been developed by the Korea institute of ocean science and technology (KIOST) and KOOS provides daily basis 72-hours' ocean forecasts such as wind, water elevation, sea currents, water temperature, salinity, and waves which are computed from not only meteorological and hydrodynamic model (WRF, ROMS, MOM, and MOHID) but also wave models (WW-III and SWAN). In order to evaluate the model performance and guarantee a certain level of accuracy of ocean forecasts, a Skill Assessment (SA) system was established as a one of module in KOOS. It has been performed through comparison of model results with in-situ observation data and model errors have been quantified with skill scores. Statistics which are used in skill assessment are including a measure of both errors and correlations such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), root-mean-square-error percentage (RMSE%), mean bias (MB), correlation coefficient (R), scatter index (SI), circular correlation (CC) and central frequency (CF) that is a frequency with which errors lie within acceptable error criteria. It should be utilized simultaneously not only to quantify an error but also to improve an accuracy of forecasts by providing a feedback interactively. However, in an abnormal phenomena such as high-height swell-like waves in the East coast of Korea, it requires more advanced and optimized error quantification method that allows to predict the abnormal waves well and to improve the accuracy of forecasts by supporting modification of physics and numeric on numerical models through sensitivity test. In this study, we proposed an appropriate method of error quantification especially on abnormal high waves which are occurred by local weather condition. Furthermore, we introduced that how the quantification errors are contributed to improve wind-wave modeling by applying data assimilation and utilizing reanalysis data.

Preliminary Study on Coupling Wave-Tide-Storm Surges Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S.; Park, S.; Seo, J.; Kim, K.

2008-12-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surge, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module on wave heights. However, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (RTSM : Regional Tide/Storm Surges Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The RTSM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and RTSM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2013-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC. Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2012-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC.

Telecommunication service markets through the year 2000 in relation to millimeter wave satellite systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevenson, S. M.

1979-01-01

NASA is currently conducting a series of millimeter wave satellite system market studies to develop 30/20 GHz satellite system concepts that have commercial potential. Four contractual efforts were undertaken: two parallel and independent system studies and two parallel and independent market studies. The marketing efforts are focused on forecasting the total domestic demand for long haul telecommunications services for the 1980-2000 period. Work completed to date and reported in this paper include projections of: geographical distribution of traffic; traffic volume as a function of urban area size; and user identification and forecasted demand.

Using Seasonal Forecasting Data for Vessel Routing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Ray; Kirtman, Ben

2017-04-01

We present an assessment of seasonal forecasting of surface wind speed, significant wave height and ocean surface current speed in the North Pacific for potential use of vessel routing from Singapore to San Diego. WaveWatchIII is forced with surface winds and ocean surface currents from the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) retrospective forecasts for the period of 1982-2015. Several lead time forecasts are used from zero months to six months resulting in 2,720 model years, ensuring the findings from this study are robust. July surface wind speed and significant wave height can be skillfully forecast with a one month lead time, with the western North Pacific being the most predictable region. Beyond May initial conditions (lead time of two months) the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Spring predictability barrier limits skill of significant wave height but there is skill for surface wind speed with January initial conditions (lead time of six months). In a separate study of vessel routing between Norfolk, Virginia and Gibraltar we demonstrate the benefit of a multimodel approach using the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). In collaboration with Charles River Analytics an all-encompassing forecast is presented by using machine learning on the various ensembles which can be using used for industry applications.

Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results From the PROGRESS Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balikhin, M. A.; Arber, T. D.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Walker, S. N.

2017-12-01

Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results from the PROGRESS Project. The overall goal of the PROGRESS project, funded in frame of EU Horizon2020 programme, is to combine first principles based models with the systems science methodologies to achieve reliable forecasts of the geo-space particle radiation environment.The PROGRESS incorporates three themes : The propagation of the solar wind to L1, Forecast of geomagnetic indices, and forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons within the magnetosphere. One of the important aspects of the PROGRESS project is the development of statistical wave models for magnetospheric waves that affect the dynamics of energetic electrons such as lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise. The error reduction ratio (ERR) concept has been used to optimise the set of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters for organisation of statistical wave models for these emissions. The resulting sets of parameters and statistical wave models will be presented and discussed. However the ERR analysis also indicates that the combination of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters accounts for only part of the variance of the emissions under investigation (lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise). In addition, advances in the forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons, exploiting empirical models and the first principles IMPTAM model achieved by the PROGRESS project is presented.

Ocean modelling and Early-Warning System for the Gulf of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima Rego, Joao; Yan, Kun; Sisomphon, Piyamarn; Thanathanphon, Watin; Twigt, Daniel; Irazoqui Apecechea, Maialen

2017-04-01

Storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones are among the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters to coastal areas. The Gulf of Thailand (GoT) has been periodically affected by typhoon induced storm surges in the past (e.g. storm Harriet in 1962, storm Gay in 1989 and storm Linda in 1997). Due to increased touristic / economic development and increased population density in the coastal zone, the combined effect and risk of high water level and increased rainfall / river discharge has dramatically increased and are expected to increase in future due to climate change effects. This presentation describes the development and implementation of the first real-time operational storm surge, wave and wave setup forecasting system in the GoT, a joint applied research initiative by Deltares in The Netherlands and the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) in Thailand. The modelling part includes a new hydrodynamic model to simulate tides and storm surges and two wave models (regional and local). The hydrodynamic model is based on Delft3D Flexible Mesh, capable of simulating water levels and detailed flows. The regional and the recently-developed local wave model are based on the SWAN model, a third-generation wave model. The operational platform is based on Delft-FEWS software, which coordinates all the data inputs, the modelling tasks and the automatic forecast exports including overland inundation in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The main objective of the Gulf of Thailand EWS is to provide daily accurate storm surge, wave and wave setup estimates automatically with various data exports possibilities to support this task. It adds a coastal component to HAII's existing practice of providing daily reports on fluvial flood forecasts, used for decision-support in issuing flood warnings for inland water systems in Thailand. Every day, three-day coastal forecasts are now produced based on the latest regional meteorological predictions. Examples are given to illustrate the system's development and main features, with a focus on decision-support products.

The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

2015-11-01

The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

a 24/7 High Resolution Storm Surge, Inundation and Circulation Forecasting System for Florida Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paramygin, V.; Davis, J. R.; Sheng, Y.

2012-12-01

A 24/7 forecasting system for Florida is needed because of the high risk of tropical storm surge-induced coastal inundation and damage, and the need to support operational management of water resources, utility infrastructures, and fishery resources. With the anticipated climate change impacts, including sea level rise, coastal areas are facing the challenges of increasing inundation risk and increasing population. Accurate 24/7 forecasting of water level, inundation, and circulation will significantly enhance the sustainability of coastal communities and environments. Supported by the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA) through NOAA IOOS, a 24/7 high-resolution forecasting system for storm surge, coastal inundation, and baroclinic circulation is being developed for Florida using CH3D Storm Surge Modeling System (CH3D-SSMS). CH3D-SSMS is based on the CH3D hydrodynamic model coupled to a coastal wave model SWAN and basin scale surge and wave models. CH3D-SSMS has been verified with surge, wave, and circulation data from several recent hurricanes in the U.S.: Isabel (2003); Charley, Dennis and Ivan (2004); Katrina and Wilma (2005); Ike and Fay (2008); and Irene (2011), as well as typhoons in the Pacific: Fanapi (2010) and Nanmadol (2011). The effects of tropical cyclones on flow and salinity distribution in estuarine and coastal waters has been simulated for Apalachicola Bay as well as Guana-Tolomato-Matanzas Estuary using CH3D-SSMS. The system successfully reproduced different physical phenomena including large waves during Ivan that damaged I-10 Bridges, a large alongshore wave and coastal flooding during Wilma, salinity drop during Fay, and flooding in Taiwan as a result of combined surge and rain effect during Fanapi. The system uses 4 domains that cover entire Florida coastline: West, which covers the Florida panhandle and Tampa Bay; Southwest spans from Florida Keys to Charlotte Harbor; Southeast, covering Biscayne Bay and Miami and East, which continues north to the Florida/Georgia border. The system has a data acquisition and processing module that is used to collect data for model runs (e.g. wind, river flow, precipitation). Depending on the domain, forecasts runs can take ~1-18 hours to complete on a single CPU (8-core) system (1-2 hrs for 2D setup and up to 18 hrs for a 3D setup) with 4 forecasts generated per day. All data is archived / catalogued and model forecast skill is continuously being evaluated. In addition to the baseline forecasts, additional forecasts are being perform using various options for wind forcing (GFS, GFDL, WRF, and parametric hurricane models), model configurations (2D/ 3D), and open boundary conditions by coupling with large scale models (ROMS, NCOM, HYCOM), as well as incorporating real-time and forecast river flow and precipitation data to better understand how to improve model skill. In addition, new forecast products (e.g. more informative inundation maps) are being developed to targeted stakeholders. To support modern data standards, CH3D-SSMS results are available online via a THREDDS server in CF-Compliant NetCDF format as well as other stakeholder-friendly (e.g. GIS) formats. The SECOORA website provides visualization of the model via GODIVA-THREDDS interface.

MOCASSIM - an operational forecast system for the Portuguese coastal waters.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitorino, J.; Soares, C.; Almeida, S.; Rusu, E.; Pinto, J.

2003-04-01

An operational system for the forecast of oceanographic conditions off the Portuguese coast is presently being implemented at Instituto Hidrográfico (IH), in the framework of project MOCASSIM. The system is planned to use a broad range of observations provided both from IH observational networks (wave buoys, tidal gauges) and programs (hydrographic surveys, moorings) as well as from external sources. The MOCASSIM system integrates several numerical models which, combined, are intended to cover the relevant physical processes observed in the geographical areas of interest. At the present stage of development the system integrates a circulation module and a wave module. The circulation module is based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), a primitive equation model formulated under the rigid lid assumption, which includes a data assimilation module. The wave module is based on the WaveWatch3 (WW3) model, which provides wave conditions in the North Atlantic basin, and on the SWAN model which is used to improve the wave forecasts on coastal or other specific areas of interest. The models use the meteorological forcing fields of a limited area model (ALADIN model) covering the Portuguese area, which are being provided in the framework of a close colaboration with Instituto de Meteorologia. Although still under devellopment, the MOCASSIM system has already been used in several operationnal contexts. These included the operational environmental assessment during both national and NATO navy exercises and, more recently, the monitoring of the oceanographic conditions in the NW Iberian area affected by the oil spill of MV "Prestige". The system is also a key component of ongoing research on the oceanography of the Portuguese continental margin, which is presently being conducted at IH in the framework of national and European funded projects.

Mediterranea Forecasting System: a focus on wave-current coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, Emanuela; Delrosso, Damiano; Pistoia, Jenny; Drudi, Massimiliano; Fratianni, Claudia; Grandi, Alessandro; Pinardi, Nadia; Oddo, Paolo; Tonani, Marina

2016-04-01

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that produces analyses, reanalyses and short term forecasts for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. MFS became operational in the late 90's and has been developed and continuously improved in the framework of a series of EU and National funded programs and is now part of the Copernicus Marine Service. The MFS is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way coupled with the third generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) implemented in the Mediterranean Sea with 1/16 horizontal resolution and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle, using a background error correlation matrix varying seasonally and in different sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea. The focus of this work is to present the latest modelling system upgrades and the related achieved improvements. In order to evaluate the performance of the coupled system a set of experiments has been built by coupling the wave and circulation models that hourly exchange the following fields: the sea surface currents and air-sea temperature difference are transferred from NEMO model to WW3 model modifying respectively the mean momentum transfer of waves and the wind speed stability parameter; while the neutral drag coefficient computed by WW3 model is passed to NEMO that computes the turbulent component. In order to validate the modelling system, numerical results have been compared with in-situ and remote sensing data. This work suggests that a coupled model might be capable of a better description of wave-current interactions, in particular feedback from the ocean to the waves might assess an improvement on the prediction capability of wave characteristics, while suggests to proceed toward a fully coupled modelling system in order to achieve stronger enhancements of the hydrodynamic fields.

Deterministic Wave Predictions from the WaMoS II

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-23

Monitoring System WaMoS II as input to a wave pre- diction system . The utility of wave prediction is primarily ves- sel motion prediction. Specific...successful prediction. The envisioned prediction system may provide graphical output in the form of a decision support system (Fig. 1). Predictions are...quality and accuracy of WaMoS as input to a deterministic wave prediction system . In the context of this paper, the Time Now Forecast H e a v e Hindcast

The Role of Secondary Frontal Waves in Causing Missed or False Alarm Flood Forecasts During Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, A.; Ralph, F. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Kalansky, J.; Kawzenuk, B.

2015-12-01

The previous ten years has seen an explosion in research devoted to the Atmospheric River (AR) phenomena, features of the midlatitude circulation responsible for large horizontal water vapor transport. Upon landfall, ARs can be associated with 30-50% of annual precipitation in some regions, while also causing the largest flooding events in places such as coastal California. Little discussed is the role secondary frontal waves play in modulating precipitation during a landfalling AR. Secondary frontal waves develop along an existing cold front in response to baroclinic frontogenesis, often coinciding with a strong upper-tropospheric jet. If the secondary wave develops along a front associated with a landfalling AR, the resulting precipitation may be much greater or much less than originally forecasted - especially in regions where orographic uplift of horizontally transported water vapor is responsible for a large portion of precipitation. In this study, we present several cases of secondary frontal waves that have occurred in conjunction with a landfalling AR on the US West Coast. We put the impact of these cases in historical perspective using quantitative precipitation forecasts, satellite data, reanalyses, and estimates of damage related to flooding. We also discuss the dynamical mechanisms behind secondary frontal wave development and relate these mechanisms to the high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation observed during ARs with secondary frontal waves. Finally, we demonstrate that even at lead times less than 24 hours, current quantitative precipitation forecasting methods have difficulty accurately predicting the rainfall in the area near the secondary wave landfall, in some cases leading to missed or false alarm flood warnings, and suggest methods which may improve quantitative precipitation forecasts for this type of system in the future.

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which might provide better and more reliable forecast for the flood affected communities.

Lightning-generated whistler waves observed by probes on the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System satellite at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzworth, R. H.; McCarthy, M. P.; Pfaff, R. F.; Jacobson, A. R.; Willcockson, W. L.; Rowland, D. E.

2011-06-01

Direct evidence is presented for a causal relationship between lightning and strong electric field transients inside equatorial ionospheric density depletions. In fact, these whistler mode plasma waves may be the dominant electric field signal within such depletions. Optical lightning data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite and global lightning location information from the World Wide Lightning Location Network are presented as independent verification that these electric field transients are caused by lightning. The electric field instrument on C/NOFS routinely measures lightning-related electric field wave packets or sferics, associated with simultaneous measurements of optical flashes at all altitudes encountered by the satellite (401-867 km). Lightning-generated whistler waves have abundant access to the topside ionosphere, even close to the magnetic equator.

Lightning-Generated Whistler Waves Observed by Probes On The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System Satellite at Low Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holzworth, R. H.; McCarthy, M. P.; Pfaff, R. F.; Jacobson, A. R.; Willcockson, W. L.; Rowland, D. E.

2011-01-01

Direct evidence is presented for a causal relationship between lightning and strong electric field transients inside equatorial ionospheric density depletions. In fact, these whistler mode plasma waves may be the dominant electric field signal within such depletions. Optical lightning data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite and global lightning location information from the World Wide Lightning Location Network are presented as independent verification that these electric field transients are caused by lightning. The electric field instrument on C/NOFS routinely measures lightning ]related electric field wave packets or sferics, associated with simultaneous measurements of optical flashes at all altitudes encountered by the satellite (401.867 km). Lightning ]generated whistler waves have abundant access to the topside ionosphere, even close to the magnetic equator.

Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, L.; Titov, V. V.; Chamberlin, C. D.

2009-12-01

The study describes the development, testing and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models (forecast models) for use in NOAA's tsunami forecast and warning system. The model development process includes sensitivity studies of tsunami wave characteristics in the nearshore and inundation, for a range of model grid setups, resolutions and parameters. To demonstrate the process, four forecast models in Hawaii, at Hilo, Kahului, Honolulu, and Nawiliwili are described. The models were validated with fourteen historical tsunamis and compared with numerical results from reference inundation models of higher resolution. The accuracy of the modeled maximum wave height is greater than 80% when the observation is greater than 0.5 m; when the observation is below 0.5 m the error is less than 0.3 m. The error of the modeled arrival time of the first peak is within 3% of the travel time. The developed forecast models were further applied to hazard assessment from simulated magnitude 7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3 tsunamis based on subduction zone earthquakes in the Pacific. The tsunami hazard assessment study indicates that use of a seismic magnitude alone for a tsunami source assessment is inadequate to achieve such accuracy for tsunami amplitude forecasts. The forecast models apply local bathymetric and topographic information, and utilize dynamic boundary conditions from the tsunami source function database, to provide site- and event-specific coastal predictions. Only by combining a Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami-constrained tsunami magnitude with site-specific high-resolution models can the forecasts completely cover the evolution of earthquake-generated tsunami waves: generation, deep ocean propagation, and coastal inundation. Wavelet analysis of the tsunami waves suggests the coastal tsunami frequency responses at different sites are dominated by the local bathymetry, yet they can be partially related to the locations of the tsunami sources. The study also demonstrates the nonlinearity between offshore and nearshore maximum wave amplitudes.

Simulation studies of the application of SEASAT data in weather and state of sea forecasting models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardone, V. J.; Greenwood, J. A.

1979-01-01

The design and analysis of SEASAT simulation studies in which the error structure of conventional analyses and forecasts is modeled realistically are presented. The development and computer implementation of a global spectral ocean wave model is described. The design of algorithms for the assimilation of theoretical wind data into computers and for the utilization of real wind data and wave height data in a coupled computer system are presented.

Sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer using the ECCC monthly forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Ping; Lin, Hai

2018-02-01

A useful sub-seasonal forecast is of great societal and economical value in the highly populated East Asian region, especially during boreal summer when frequent extreme events such as heat waves and persistent heavy rainfalls occur. Despite recent interest and development in sub-seasonal prediction, it is still unclear how skillful dynamical forecasting systems are in East Asia beyond 2 weeks. In this study we evaluate the sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer in the operational monthly forecasting system of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).Results show that the climatological intra-seasonal oscillation (CISO) of East Asian summer monsoonis reasonably well captured. Statistically significant forecast skill of 2-meter air temperature (T2m) is achieved for all lead times up to week 4 (days 26-32) over East China and Northeast Asia, which is consistent with the skill in 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500). Significant forecast skill of precipitation, however, is limited to the week of days 5-11. Possible sources of predictability on the sub-seasonal time scale are analyzed. The weekly mean T2m anomaly over East China is found to be linked to an eastward propagating extratropical Rossby wave from the North Atlantic across Europe to East Asia. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also likely to influence the forecast skill of T2m at the sub-seasonal timescale over East Asia.

A Cause and A Solution for the Underprediction of Extreme Wave Events in the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellenson, A. N.; Ozkan-Haller, H. T.; Thomson, J.; Brown, A. C.; Haller, M. C.

2016-12-01

Along the coastlines of Washington and Oregon, at least one 10 m wave height event occurs every year, and the strongest storms produce wave heights of 14-15 m. Extremely high wave heights can cause severe damage to coastal infrastructure and pose hazards to stakeholders along the coast. A system which can accurately predict such sea states is important for quantifying risk and aiding in preparation for extreme wave events. This study explores how to optimize forecast model performance for extreme wave events by utilizing different physics packages or wind input in four model configurations. The different wind input products consist of a reanalyzed Global Forecasting System (GFS) wind input and a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) from the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The physics packages are the Tolman-Chalikov (1996) ST2 physics package and the Ardhuin et al (2009) ST4 physics package associated with version 4.18 of WaveWatch III. A hindcast was previously performed to assess the wave character along the Pacific Northwest Coastline for wave energy applications. Inspection of hindcast model results showed that the operational model, which consisted of ST2 physics and GFS wind, underpredicted events where wave height exceeded six meters.The under-prediction is most severe for cases with the combined conditions of a distant cyclone and a strong coastal jet. Three such cases were re-analyzed with the four model configurations. Model output is compared with observations at NDBC buoy 46050, offshore of Newport, OR. The model configuration consisting of ST4 physics package and CFSR wind input performs best as compared with the original model, reducing significant wave height underprediction from 1.25 m to approximately 0.67 m and mean wave direction error from 30 degrees to 17 degrees for wave heights greater than 6 m. Spectral analysis shows that the ST4-CFSR model configuration best resolves southerly wave energy, and all model configurations tend to overestimate northerly wave energy. This directional distinction is important when attempting to identify which atmospheric feature has induced the extreme wave energy.

Rogue waves in terms of multi-point statistics and nonequilibrium thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjihosseini, Ali; Lind, Pedro; Mori, Nobuhito; Hoffmann, Norbert P.; Peinke, Joachim

2017-04-01

Ocean waves, which lead to rogue waves, are investigated on the background of complex systems. In contrast to deterministic approaches based on the nonlinear Schroedinger equation or focusing effects, we analyze this system in terms of a noisy stochastic system. In particular we present a statistical method that maps the complexity of multi-point data into the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales. We show that the stochastic cascade process with Markov properties is governed by a Fokker-Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker-Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. This stochastic description enables us to show several new aspects of wave states. Surrogate data sets can in turn be generated allowing to work out different statistical features of the complex sea state in general and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics. As a new outlook the ocean wave states will be considered in terms of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, for which the entropy production of different wave heights will be considered. We show evidence that rogue waves are characterized by negative entropy production. The statistics of the entropy production can be used to distinguish different wave states.

The CMEMS IBI-MFC Forecasting Service in 2017: Evolution and Novelties associated to the CMEMS service release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente, Pablo; Sotillo, Marcos G.; Gutknecht, Elodie; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Aouf, Lotfi; Toledano, Cristina; Amo-Baladron, Arancha; Aznar, Roland; De Pascual, Alvaro; Levier, Bruno; Bowyer, Peter; Rainaud, Romain; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

2017-04-01

The IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts of diverse physical parameters for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). By April 2017, coincident with the V3 CMEMS Service Release, the IBI-MFC will extend their near real time (NRT) forecast capabilities. Two new operational IBI forecast systems will be operationally run to generate high resolution biochemical (BIO) and wave (WAV) products on the IBI area. The IBI-NRT-BIO forecast system, based on a 1/36° NEMO-PISCES model application, is run once a week coupled with the IBI physical forecast solution and nested to the CMEMS GLOBAL-BIO solution. On the other hand, the IBI-NRT-WAV system, based on a MeteoFrance-WAM 10km resolution model application, runs twice a day using ECMWF wind forcing. Among other novelties related to the evolution of the IBI physical (PHY) solution, it is worthwhile mentioning the provision, as part of the IBI-NRT-PHY product daily updated, of three-dimensional hourly data on specific areas within the IBI domain. The delivery of these new hourly data along the whole water column has been achieved after the request from IBI users, in order to foster downscaling approaches by providing coherent open boundary conditions to any potential high-resolution coastal model nested to IBI regional solution. An extensive skill assessment of IBI-NRT forecast products has been conducted through the NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) web tool, by means of the automatic computation of statistical metrics and quality indicators. By now, this tool has been focused on the validation of the IBI-NRT-PHY system. Nowadays, NARVAL is facing a significant upgrade to validate the aforementioned new biogeochemical and wave IBI products. To this aim, satellite derived observations of chlorophyll and significant wave height will be used, together with in-situ wave parameters measured by mooring buoys. Within this validation framework, special emphasis has been placed on the intercomparison of different forecast model solutions in overlapping areas in order to evaluate models' performances and prognostic capabilities. This common uncertainty estimates of IBI and other model solution is currently performed by NARVAL using both CMEMS forecast model sources (i.e. GLOBAL-MFC, MED-MFC and NWS-MFC) and non-CMEMS operational forecast solutions (mostly downstream application nested to the IBI solution). With respect to the IBI multi-year (MY) products, it is worth mentioning that the actual biogeochemical and physical reanalysis products will be re-run along year 2017, extending its time coverage backwards until 1992. Based on these IBI-MY products, a variety of climatic indicators related to essential oceanographic processes (i.e. western coastal upwelling or the Mediterranean Outflow Water) are currently being computed.

Teaching ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation—Part 1: sea forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitford, Dennis J.

2002-05-01

Ocean waves are the most recognized phenomena in oceanography. Unfortunately, undergraduate study of ocean wave dynamics and forecasting involves mathematics and physics and therefore can pose difficulties with some students because of the subject's interrelated dependence on time and space. Verbal descriptions and two-dimensional illustrations are often insufficient for student comprehension. Computer-generated visualization and animation offer a visually intuitive and pedagogically sound medium to present geoscience, yet there are very few oceanographic examples. A two-part article series is offered to explain ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation. This paper, Part 1, addresses forecasting of sea wave conditions and serves as the basis for the more difficult topic of swell wave forecasting addressed in Part 2. Computer-aided visualization and animation, accompanied by oral explanation, are a welcome pedagogical supplement to more traditional methods of instruction. In this article, several MATLAB ® software programs have been written to visualize and animate development and comparison of wave spectra, wave interference, and forecasting of sea conditions. These programs also set the stage for the more advanced and difficult animation topics in Part 2. The programs are user-friendly, interactive, easy to modify, and developed as instructional tools. By using these software programs, teachers can enhance their instruction of these topics with colorful visualizations and animation without requiring an extensive background in computer programming.

Modeling North Atlantic Nor'easters With Modern Wave Forecast Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrie, Will; Toulany, Bechara; Roland, Aron; Dutour-Sikiric, Mathieu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Qi, Jianhua; Hu, Yongcun; Casey, Michael P.; Shen, Hui

2018-01-01

Three state-of-the-art operational wave forecast model systems are implemented on fine-resolution grids for the Northwest Atlantic. These models are: (1) a composite model system consisting of SWAN implemented within WAVEWATCHIII® (the latter is hereafter, WW3) on a nested system of traditional structured grids, (2) an unstructured grid finite-volume wave model denoted "SWAVE," using SWAN physics, and (3) an unstructured grid finite element wind wave model denoted as "WWM" (for "wind wave model") which uses WW3 physics. Models are implemented on grid systems that include relatively large domains to capture the wave energy generated by the storms, as well as including fine-resolution nearshore regions of the southern Gulf of Maine with resolution on the scale of 25 m to simulate areas where inundation and coastal damage have occurred, due to the storms. Storm cases include three intense midlatitude cases: a spring Nor'easter storm in May 2005, the Patriot's Day storm in 2007, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010. Although these wave model systems have comparable overall properties in terms of their performance and skill, it is found that there are differences. Models that use more advanced physics, as presented in recent versions of WW3, tuned to regional characteristics, as in the Gulf of Maine and the Northwest Atlantic, can give enhanced results.

Meteorological and Environmental Inputs to Aviation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camp, Dennis W. (Editor); Frost, Walter (Editor)

1988-01-01

Reports on aviation meteorology, most of them informal, are presented by representatives of the National Weather Service, the Bracknell (England) Meteorological Office, the NOAA Wave Propagation Lab., the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, and the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. Additional presentations are included on aircraft/lidar turbulence comparison, lightning detection and locating systems, objective detection and forecasting of clear air turbulence, comparative verification between the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Model and official aviation terminal forecasts, the evaluation of the Prototype Regional Observation and Forecast System (PROFS) mesoscale weather products, and the FAA/MIT Lincoln Lab. Doppler Weather Radar Program.

Frontiers of Remote Sensing of the Oceans and Troposphere from Air and Space Platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Several areas of remote sensing are addressed including: future satellite systems; air-sea interaction/wind; ocean waves and spectra/S.A.R.; atmospheric measurements (particulates and water vapor); synoptic and weather forecasting; topography; bathymetry; sea ice; and impact of remote sensing on synoptic analysis/forecasting.

Parcel-scale urban coastal flood mapping: Leveraging the multi-scale CoSMoS model for coastal flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallien, T.; Barnard, P. L.; Sanders, B. F.

2011-12-01

California coastal sea levels are projected to rise 1-1.4 meters in the next century and evidence suggests mean tidal range, and consequently, mean high water (MHW) is increasing along portions of Southern California Bight. Furthermore, emerging research indicates wind stress patterns associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have suppressed sea level rise rates along the West Coast since 1980, and a reversal in this pattern would result in the resumption of regional sea level rise rates equivalent to or exceeding global mean sea level rise rates, thereby enhancing coastal flooding. Newport Beach is a highly developed, densely populated lowland along the Southern California coast currently subject to episodic flooding from coincident high tides and waves, and the frequency and intensity of flooding is expected to increase with projected future sea levels. Adaptation to elevated sea levels will require flood mapping and forecasting tools that are sensitive to the dominant factors affecting flooding including extreme high tides, waves and flood control infrastructure. Considerable effort has been focused on the development of nowcast and forecast systems including Scripps Institute of Oceanography's Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) and the USGS Multi-hazard model, the Southern California Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). However, fine scale local embayment dynamics and overtopping flows are needed to map unsteady flooding effects in coastal lowlands protected by dunes, levees and seawalls. Here, a recently developed two dimensional Godunov non-linear shallow water solver is coupled to water level and wave forecasts from the CoSMoS model to investigate the roles of tides, waves, sea level changes and flood control infrastructure in accurate flood mapping and forecasting. The results of this study highlight the important roles of topographic data, embayment hydrodynamics, water level uncertainties and critical flood processes required for meaningful prediction of sea level rise impacts and coastal flood forecasting.

Sensitivity of mesoscale-model forecast skill to some initial-data characteristics, data density, data position, analysis procedure and measurement error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, Thomas T.; Key, Lawrence E.; Lario, Annette M.

1989-01-01

The effects of horizontal and vertical data resolution, data density, data location, different objective analysis algorithms, and measurement error on mesoscale-forecast accuracy are studied with observing-system simulation experiments. Domain-averaged errors are shown to generally decrease with time. It is found that the vertical distribution of error growth depends on the initial vertical distribution of the error itself. Larger gravity-inertia wave noise is produced in forecasts with coarser vertical data resolution. The use of a low vertical resolution observing system with three data levels leads to more forecast errors than moderate and high vertical resolution observing systems with 8 and 14 data levels. Also, with poor vertical resolution in soundings, the initial and forecast errors are not affected by the horizontal data resolution.

Surface wave effect on the upper ocean in marine forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guansuo; Qiao, Fangli; Xia, Changshui; Zhao, Chang

2015-04-01

An Operational Coupled Forecast System for the seas off China and adjacent (OCFS-C) is constructed based on the paralleled wave-circulation coupled model, which is tested with comprehensive experiments and operational since November 1st, 2007. The main feature of the system is that the wave-induced mixing is considered in circulation model. Daily analyses and three day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents and wave height are produced. Coverage is global at 1/2 degreed resolution with nested models up to 1/24 degree resolution in China Sea. Daily remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SST) are taken to relax to an analytical product as hot restarting fields for OCFS-C by the Nudging techniques. Forecasting-data inter-comparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of OCFS-C in predicting upper-ocean quantities including SST, mixed layer depth (MLD) and subsurface temperature. The variety of performance with lead time and real-time is discussed as well using the daily statistic results for SST between forecast and satellite data. Several buoy observations and many Argo profiles are used for this validation. Except the conventional statistical metrics, non-dimension skill scores (SS) is taken to estimate forecast skill. Model SST comparisons with more one year-long SST time series from 2 buoys given a large SS value (more than 0.90). And skill in predicting the seasonal variability of SST is confirmed. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with that from a lot of Argo profiles indicated that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 80m and 120m. Inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12m. QCFS-C is successful and steady in predicting MLD. The daily statistic results for SST between 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecast and data is adopted to describe variability of Skill in predicting SST with lead time or real time. In a word QCFS-C shows reasonable accuracy over a series of studies designed to test ability to predict upper ocean conditions.

Effects of Parameterized Orographic Drag on Weather Forecasting and Simulated Climatology Over East Asia During Boreal Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Joo; Choi, Suk-Jin; Koo, Myung-Seo; Kim, Jung-Eun; Kwon, Young Cheol; Hong, Song-You

2017-10-01

The impact of subgrid orographic drag on weather forecasting and simulated climatology over East Asia in boreal summer is examined using two parameterization schemes in a global forecast model. The schemes consider gravity wave drag (GWD) with and without lower-level wave breaking drag (LLWD) and flow-blocking drag (FBD). Simulation results from sensitivity experiments verify that the scheme with LLWD and FBD improves the intensity of a summertime continental high over the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, which is exaggerated with GWD only. This is because the enhanced lower tropospheric drag due to the effects of lower-level wave breaking and flow blocking slows down the wind flowing out of the high-pressure system in the lower troposphere. It is found that the decreased lower-level divergence induces a compensating weakening of middle- to upper-level convergence aloft. Extended experiments for medium-range forecasts for July 2013 and seasonal simulations for June to August of 2013-2015 are also conducted. Statistical skill scores for medium-range forecasting are improved not only in low-level winds but also in surface pressure when both LLWD and FBD are considered. A simulated climatology of summertime monsoon circulation in East Asia is also realistically reproduced.

Usefulness of Wave Data Assimilation to the WAVE WATCH III Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. K.; Dykes, J. D.; Yaremchuk, M.; Wittmann, P.

2017-12-01

In-situ and remote-sensed wave data are more abundant currently than in years past, with excellent accuracy at global scales. Forecast skill of the WAVE WATCH III model is improved by assimilation of these measurements and they are also useful for model validation and calibration. It has been known that the impact of assimilation in wind-sea conditions is not large, but spectra that result in large swell with long term propagation are identified and assimilated, the improved accuracy of the initial conditions improve the long-term forecasts. The Navy's assimilation method started with the simple Optimal Interpolation (OI) method. Operationally, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center uses the sequential 2DVar scheme, but a new approach has been tested based on an adjoint-free method to variational assimilation in WAVE WATCH III. We will present the status of wave data assimilation into the WAVE WATCH III numerical model and upcoming development of this new adjoint-free variational approach.

WaveNet: A Web-Based Metocean Data Access, Processing and Analysis Tool; Part 5 - WW3 Database

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

Program ( CDIP ); and Part 4 for the Great Lakes Observing System/Coastal Forecasting System (GLOS/GLCFS). Using step-by-step instructions, this Part 5...Demirbilek, Z., L. Lin, and D. Wilson. 2014a. WaveNet: A web-based metocean data access, processing, and analysis tool; part 3– CDIP database

Multi-step-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a hybrid grey wave model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanhui; Zhang, Chuan; He, Kaijian; Zheng, Aibing

2018-07-01

Crude oil is crucial to the operation and economic well-being of the modern society. Huge changes of crude oil price always cause panics to the global economy. There are many factors influencing crude oil price. Crude oil price prediction is still a difficult research problem widely discussed among researchers. Based on the researches on Heterogeneous Market Hypothesis and the relationship between crude oil price and macroeconomic factors, exchange market, stock market, this paper proposes a hybrid grey wave forecasting model, which combines Random Walk (RW)/ARMA to forecast multi-step-ahead crude oil price. More specifically, we use grey wave forecasting model to model the periodical characteristics of crude oil price and ARMA/RW to simulate the daily random movements. The innovation also comes from using the information of the time series graph to forecast crude oil price, since grey wave forecasting is a graphical prediction method. The empirical results demonstrate that based on the daily data of crude oil price, the hybrid grey wave forecasting model performs well in 15- to 20-step-ahead prediction and it always dominates ARMA and Random Walk in correct direction prediction.

Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

2017-08-01

Hot winds are the marked feature of summer season in India during late spring preceding the climatological onset of the monsoon season in June. Some years the conditions becomes very vulnerable with the maximum temperature ( T max) exceeding 45 °C for many days over parts of north-western, eastern coastal states of India and Indo-Gangetic plain. During summer of 2015 (late May to early June) eastern coastal states, central and northwestern parts of India experienced severe heat wave conditions leading to loss of thousands of human life in extreme high temperature conditions. It is not only the loss of human life but also the animals and birds were very vulnerable to this extreme heat wave conditions. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the performance of real time extended range forecast (forecast up to 3 weeks) of this scorching T max based on the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) latest version coupled model (CFSv2). The heat wave condition was very severe during the week from 22 to 28 May with subsequent week from 29 May to 4 June also witnessed high T max over many parts of central India including eastern coastal states of India. The 8 ensemble members of operational CFSv2 model are used once in a week to prepare the weekly bias corrected deterministic (ensemble mean) T max forecast for 3 weeks valid from Friday to Thursday coinciding with the heat wave periods of 2015. Using the 8 ensemble members separately and the CFSv2 corresponding hindcast climatology the probability of above and below normal T max is also prepared for the same 3 weeks. The real time deterministic and probabilistic forecasts did indicate impending heat wave over many parts of India during late May and early June of 2015 associated with strong northwesterly wind over main land mass of India, delaying the sea breeze, leading to heat waves over eastern coastal regions of India. Thus, the capability of coupled model in providing early warning of such killer heat wave can be very useful to the disaster managers to take appropriate actions to minimize the loss of life and property due to such high T max.

Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

2015-04-01

With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

A Machine LearningFramework to Forecast Wave Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.; O'Donncha, F.

2017-12-01

Recently, significant effort has been undertaken to quantify and extract wave energy because it is renewable, environmental friendly, abundant, and often close to population centers. However, a major challenge is the ability to accurately and quickly predict energy production, especially across a 48-hour cycle. Accurate forecasting of wave conditions is a challenging undertaking that typically involves solving the spectral action-balance equation on a discretized grid with high spatial resolution. The nature of the computations typically demands high-performance computing infrastructure. Using a case-study site at Monterey Bay, California, a machine learning framework was trained to replicate numerically simulated wave conditions at a fraction of the typical computational cost. Specifically, the physics-based Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, driven by measured wave conditions, nowcast ocean currents, and wind data, was used to generate training data for machine learning algorithms. The model was run between April 1st, 2013 and May 31st, 2017 generating forecasts at three-hour intervals yielding 11,078 distinct model outputs. SWAN-generated fields of 3,104 wave heights and a characteristic period could be replicated through simple matrix multiplications using the mapping matrices from machine learning algorithms. In fact, wave-height RMSEs from the machine learning algorithms (9 cm) were less than those for the SWAN model-verification exercise where those simulations were compared to buoy wave data within the model domain (>40 cm). The validated machine learning approach, which acts as an accurate surrogate for the SWAN model, can now be used to perform real-time forecasts of wave conditions for the next 48 hours using available forecasted boundary wave conditions, ocean currents, and winds. This solution has obvious applications to wave-energy generation as accurate wave conditions can be forecasted with over a three-order-of-magnitude reduction in computational expense. The low computational cost (and by association low computer-power requirement) means that the machine learning algorithms could be installed on a wave-energy converter as a form of "edge computing" where a device could forecast its own 48-hour energy production.

Performance analysis of coupled and uncoupled hydrodynamic and wave models in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busca, Claudia; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Valentini, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Bortoluzzi, Giovanni; Carniel, Sandro; Falcieri, Francesco; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Ravaioli, Mariangela; Riminucci, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro; Russo, Aniello

2014-05-01

The complex dynamics of the Adriatic Sea are the result of geographical position, orography and bathymetry, as well as rivers discharge and meteorological conditions that influence, more strongly, the shallow northern part. Such complexity requires a constant monitoring of marine conditions in order to support several activities (marine resources management, naval operations, emergency management, shipping, tourism, as well as scientific ones). Platforms, buoys and mooring located in Adriatic Sea supply almost continuously real time punctual information, which can be spatially extended, with some limitations, by drifters and remote sensing. Operational forecasting systems represent valid tools to provide a complete tridimensional coverage of the area, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. The Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service of the Emilia-Romagna Environmental Agency (ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy) and the Dept. of Life and Environmental Sciences of Università Politecnica delle Marche (DISVA-UNIVPM, Ancona, Italy), in collaboration with the Institute of Marine Science of the National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR, Italy) operationally run several wave and hydrodynamic models on the Adriatic Sea. The main implementations are based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of the former two models in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) system. Horizontal resolutions of the different systems range from the 2 km of AdriaROMS to the 0.5 km of the recently implemented northern Adriatic COAWST. Forecasts are produced every day for the subsequent 72 hour with hourly resolution. All the systems compute the fluxes exchanged through the interface with the atmosphere from the numerical weather prediction system named COSMO-I7, an implementation for Italy of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model, at 7 km horizontal resolution. Considering the several operational implementations currently running, there is the need to: assess their forecast skill; quantitatively evaluate if the new, coupled systems provide better performances than the uncoupled ones; individuate weaknesses and eventual time trends in the forecasts quality, their causes, and actions to improve the systems. This work presents a first effort aimed to satisfy such need. We employ in situ and remote sensing data collected starting from November 2011, in particular: temperature and salinity data collected during several oceanographic cruises, sea surface temperature derived from satellite measurements, waves, sea level and currents measurements from oceanographic buoys and platforms; specific observational activities funded by the Italian Flagship project RITMARE allowed to collect new measurements in NA coastal areas. Data-model comparison is firstly performed with exploratory qualitative comparisons in order to highlight discrepancies between observed and forecasted data, then a quantitative comparison is performed through the computation of standard statistical scores (root mean square error, mean error, mean bias, standard deviation, cross-correlation). Results are plotted in Taylor diagrams for a rapid evaluation of the overall performances.

VISIR-I: small vessels, least-time nautical routes using wave forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannarini, G.; Pinardi, N.; Coppini, G.; Oddo, P.; Iafrati, A.

2015-09-01

A new numerical model for the on-demand computation of optimal ship routes based on sea-state forecasts has been developed. The model, named VISIR (discoVerIng Safe and effIcient Routes) is designed to support decision-makers when planning a marine voyage. The first version of the system, VISIR-I, considers medium and small motor vessels with lengths of up to a few tens of meters and a displacement hull. The model is made up of three components: the route optimization algorithm, the mechanical model of the ship, and the environmental fields. The optimization algorithm is based on a graph-search method with time-dependent edge weights. The algorithm is also able to compute a voluntary ship speed reduction. The ship model accounts for calm water and added wave resistance by making use of just the principal particulars of the vessel as input parameters. The system also checks the optimal route for parametric roll, pure loss of stability, and surfriding/broaching-to hazard conditions. Significant wave height, wave spectrum peak period, and wave direction forecast fields are employed as an input. Examples of VISIR-I routes in the Mediterranean Sea are provided. The optimal route may be longer in terms of miles sailed and yet it is faster and safer than the geodetic route between the same departure and arrival locations. Route diversions result from the safety constraints and the fact that the algorithm takes into account the full temporal evolution and spatial variability of the environmental fields.

A Comparison Study of Two Numerical Tsunami Forecasting Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, Diana J. M.; Titov, Vasily V.

2008-12-01

This paper presents a comparison of two tsunami forecasting systems: the NOAA/PMEL system (SIFT) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology system (T1). Both of these systems are based on a tsunami scenario database and both use the same numerical model. However, there are some major differences in the way in which the scenarios are constructed and in the implementation of the systems. Two tsunami events are considered here: Tonga 2006 and Sumatra 2007. The results show that there are some differences in the distribution of maximum wave amplitude, particularly for the Tonga event, however both systems compare well to the available tsunameter observations. To assess differences in the forecasts for coastal amplitude predictions, the offshore forecast results from both systems were used as boundary conditions for a high-resolution model for Hilo, Hawaii. The minor differences seen between the two systems in deep water become considerably smaller at the tide gauge and both systems compare very well with the observations.

Operational prediction of rip currents using numerical model and nearshore bathymetry from video images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, L.; Van Ormondt, M.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Roelvink, J. A.

2017-07-01

Rip currents are one of the most dangerous coastal hazards for swimmers. In order to minimize the risk, a coastal operational-process based-model system can be utilized in order to provide forecast of nearshore waves and currents that may endanger beach goers. In this paper, an operational model for rip current prediction by utilizing nearshore bathymetry obtained from video image technique is demonstrated. For the nearshore scale model, XBeach1 is used with which tidal currents, wave induced currents (including the effect of the wave groups) can be simulated simultaneously. Up-to-date bathymetry will be obtained using video images technique, cBathy 2. The system will be tested for the Egmond aan Zee beach, located in the northern part of the Dutch coastline. This paper will test the applicability of bathymetry obtained from video technique to be used as input for the numerical modelling system by comparing simulation results using surveyed bathymetry and model results using video bathymetry. Results show that the video technique is able to produce bathymetry converging towards the ground truth observations. This bathymetry validation will be followed by an example of operational forecasting type of simulation on predicting rip currents. Rip currents flow fields simulated over measured and modeled bathymetries are compared in order to assess the performance of the proposed forecast system.

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan M

2017-06-03

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; García-Díez, Markel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2016-01-01

Heat waves have been responsible for more fatalities in Europe over the past decades than any other extreme weather event. However, temperature-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. Reliable sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts of extreme temperatures could allow for better short-to-medium-term resource management within heat-health action plans, to protect vulnerable populations and ensure access to preventive measures well in advance. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which S2S climate forecasts could be incorporated into heat-health action plans, to support timely public health decision-making ahead of imminent heat wave events in Europe. Forecasts of apparent temperature at different lead times (e.g., 1 day, 4 days, 8 days, up to 3 months) were used in a mortality model to produce probabilistic mortality forecasts up to several months ahead of the 2003 heat wave event in Europe. Results were compared to mortality predictions, inferred using observed apparent temperature data in the mortality model. In general, we found a decreasing transition in skill between excellent predictions when using observed temperature, to predictions with no skill when using forecast temperature with lead times greater than one week. However, even at lead-times up to three months, there were some regions in Spain and the United Kingdom where excess mortality was detected with some certainty. This suggests that in some areas of Europe, there is potential for S2S climate forecasts to be incorporated in localised heat–health action plans. In general, these results show that the performance of this climate service framework is not limited by the mortality model itself, but rather by the predictability of the climate variables, at S2S time scales, over Europe. PMID:26861369

Evaluation of an Early-Warning System for Heat Wave-Related Mortality in Europe: Implications for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting and Climate Services.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; García-Díez, Markel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R; Rodó, Xavier

2016-02-06

Heat waves have been responsible for more fatalities in Europe over the past decades than any other extreme weather event. However, temperature-related illnesses and deaths are largely preventable. Reliable sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts of extreme temperatures could allow for better short-to-medium-term resource management within heat-health action plans, to protect vulnerable populations and ensure access to preventive measures well in advance. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which S2S climate forecasts could be incorporated into heat-health action plans, to support timely public health decision-making ahead of imminent heat wave events in Europe. Forecasts of apparent temperature at different lead times (e.g., 1 day, 4 days, 8 days, up to 3 months) were used in a mortality model to produce probabilistic mortality forecasts up to several months ahead of the 2003 heat wave event in Europe. Results were compared to mortality predictions, inferred using observed apparent temperature data in the mortality model. In general, we found a decreasing transition in skill between excellent predictions when using observed temperature, to predictions with no skill when using forecast temperature with lead times greater than one week. However, even at lead-times up to three months, there were some regions in Spain and the United Kingdom where excess mortality was detected with some certainty. This suggests that in some areas of Europe, there is potential for S2S climate forecasts to be incorporated in localised heat-health action plans. In general, these results show that the performance of this climate service framework is not limited by the mortality model itself, but rather by the predictability of the climate variables, at S2S time scales, over Europe.

Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in Regional Seas: the Aegean Sea example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nittis, K.; Perivoliotis, L.; Zervakis, V.; Papadopoulos, A.; Tziavos, C.

2003-04-01

The increasing economic activities in the coastal zone and the associated pressure on the marine environment have raised the interest on monitoring systems able to provide supporting information for its effective management and protection. Such an integrated monitoring, forecasting and information system is being developed during the past years in the Aegean Sea. Its main component is the POSEIDON network that provides real-time data for meteorological and surface oceanographic parameters (waves, currents, hydrological and biochemical data) from 11 fixed oceanographic buoys. The numerical forecasting system is composed by an ETA atmospheric model, a WAM wave model and a POM hydrodynamic model that provide every day 72 hours forecasts. The system is operational since May 2000 and its products are published through Internet while a sub-set is also available through cellular telephony. New type of observing platforms will be available in the near future through a number of EU funded research projects. The Mediterranean Moored Multi-sensor Array (M3A) that was developed for the needs of the Mediterranean Forecasting System and was tested during 2000-2001 will be operational in 2004 during the MFSTEP project. The M3A system incorporates sensors for optical and chemical measurements (Oxygen, Turbidity, Chlorophyll-a, Nutrients and PAR) in the euphotic zone (0-100m) together with sensors for physical parameters (Temperature, Salinity, Current speed and direction) at the 0-500m layer. A Ferry-Box system will also operate during 2004 in the southern Aegean Sea, providing surface data for physical and bio-chemical properties. The ongoing modeling efforts include coupling with larger scale circulation models of the Mediterranean, high-resolution downscaling to coastal areas of the Aegean Sea and development of multi-variate data assimilation methods.

Providing Real-time Sea Ice Modeling Support to the U.S. Coast Guard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Hebert, David; Posey, Pamela; Rogers, Erick; Wallcraft, Alan; Phelps, Michael; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Wang, Shouping; Geiszler, Dan

2016-04-01

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) supported the U.S. Coast Guard Research Development Center (RDC) through a demonstration project during the summer and autumn of 2015. Specifically, a modeling system composed of a mesoscale atmospheric model, regional sea ice model, and regional wave model were loosely coupled to provide real-time 72-hr forecasts of environmental conditions for the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. The system components included a 2-km regional Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model, 15-km Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model, and a 5-km regional WAVEWATCH III wave model. The wave model utilized modeled sea ice concentration fields to incorporate the effects of sea ice on waves. The other modeling components assimilated atmosphere, ocean, and ice observations available from satellite and in situ sources. The modeling system generated daily 72-hr forecasts of synoptic weather (including visibility), ice drift, ice thickness, ice concentration and ice strength for missions within the economic exclusion zone off the coast of Alaska and a transit to the North Pole in support of the National Science Foundation GEOTRACES cruise. Model forecasts graphics were shared on a common web page with selected graphical products made available via ftp for bandwidth limited users. Model ice thickness and ice drift show very good agreement compared with Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Ice Mass Balance buoys. This demonstration served as a precursor to a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-ice modeling system under development. National Ice Center (NIC) analysts used these model data products (CICE and COAMPS) along with other existing model and satellite data to produce the predicted 48-hr position of the ice edge. The NIC served as a liaison with the RDC and NRL to provide feedback on the model predictions. This evaluation provides a baseline analysis of the current models for future comparison studies with the fully coupled modeling system.

European Science Notes Information Bulletin. Report on Current European and Middle Eastern Science

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-10-01

oceanographers. This has occurred at a time of current radar systems . The independent develop- rapidly increasing government interest in and fund...over each area in which surface current is ment of the waves (some motions caused by wave determined (for HF systems , averaging time spans action and...Ocean Observing System ; high-resolution model capabilities; ocean- atmosphere interface; Surface Density Depression Pool; forecasting INTRODUCTION tion

Stochastic Forcing for High-Resolution Regional and Global Ocean and Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Ensemble Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, C. D.; Hogan, P. J.; Martin, P.; Thoppil, P.; Wei, M.

2017-12-01

An extended range ensemble forecast system is being developed in the US Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC), and a global ocean ensemble generation capability to represent uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions has been developed. At extended forecast times, the uncertainty due to the model error overtakes the initial condition as the primary source of forecast uncertainty. Recently, stochastic parameterization or stochastic forcing techniques have been applied to represent the model error in research and operational atmospheric, ocean, and coupled ensemble forecasts. A simple stochastic forcing technique has been developed for application to US Navy high resolution regional and global ocean models, for use in ocean-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-wave ensemble forecast systems. Perturbation forcing is added to the tendency equations for state variables, with the forcing defined by random 3- or 4-dimensional fields with horizontal, vertical, and temporal correlations specified to characterize different possible kinds of error. Here, we demonstrate the stochastic forcing in regional and global ensemble forecasts with varying perturbation amplitudes and length and time scales, and assess the change in ensemble skill measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics.

Experiments with Tropical Cyclone Wave and Intensity Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

algorithm In collaboration with Paul Wittmann (Fleet Numerical Metorology and Oceanography Center) and Hendrik Tolman (National Centers for...Wittmann, P.A., C Sampson and H. Tolman: 2006: Wave Analysis Guidance for Tropical Cyclone Forecast Advisories. 9th International Workshop on Wave

Extreme precipitation event over North China in August 2010: observations, monthly forecasting, and link to intra-seasonal variability of the Silk-Road wave-train across Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsolini, Yvan; Zhang, Ling; Peters, Dieter; Fraedrich, Klaus

2014-05-01

Forecast of regional precipitation events at the sub-seasonal timescale remains a big challenge for operational global prediction systems. Over the Far East in summer, climate and precipitation are strongly influenced by the fluctuating western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and strong precipitation is often associated with southeasterly low-level wind that brings moist-laden air from the southern China seas. The WPSH variability is partly influenced by quasi-stationary wave-trains propagating eastwards from Europe across Asia along the two westerly jets: the Silk-Road wave-train along the Asian jet at mid-latitudes and, on a more northern route, the polar wave-train along the sub-polar jet. While the Silk-Road wave-train appears as a robust, internal mode of variability in seasonal predictions models, its predictability is very low on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale. A case in point is the unusual summer of 2010, when China experienced its worst seasonal flooding for a decade, triggered by unusually prolonged and severe monsoonal rains. In addition that summer was also characterized by record-breaking heat wave over Eastern Europe and Russia as well as catastrophic monsoonal floods in Pakistan 2010. The impact of the latter circulation anomalies on the precipitation further east over China, has been little explored. Here, we examine the role and the actual predictability of the Silk-Road wave-train, and its impact on precipitation over Northeastern China throughout August 2010, using the high-resolution IFS forecast model of ECMWF, realistic initialized and run in an ensemble mode. We demonstrate that the forecast failure with regard to flooding and extreme precipitation over Northeastern China in August 2010 is linked to the failure to represent intra-seasonal variations of the Silk-Road wave-train and the associated intensification of the WPSH.

Capturing rogue waves by multi-point statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjihosseini, A.; Wächter, Matthias; Hoffmann, N. P.; Peinke, J.

2016-01-01

As an example of a complex system with extreme events, we investigate ocean wave states exhibiting rogue waves. We present a statistical method of data analysis based on multi-point statistics which for the first time allows the grasping of extreme rogue wave events in a highly satisfactory statistical manner. The key to the success of the approach is mapping the complexity of multi-point data onto the statistics of hierarchically ordered height increments for different time scales, for which we can show that a stochastic cascade process with Markov properties is governed by a Fokker-Planck equation. Conditional probabilities as well as the Fokker-Planck equation itself can be estimated directly from the available observational data. With this stochastic description surrogate data sets can in turn be generated, which makes it possible to work out arbitrary statistical features of the complex sea state in general, and extreme rogue wave events in particular. The results also open up new perspectives for forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme rogue wave events, and even for forecasting the occurrence of individual rogue waves based on precursory dynamics.

Implementation and test of a coastal forecasting system for wind waves in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inghilesi, R.; Catini, F.; Orasi, A.; Corsini, S.

2010-09-01

A coastal forecasting system has been implemented in order to provide a coverage of the whole Mediterranean Sea and of several enclosed coastal areas as well. The problem is to achieve a good definition of the small scale coastal processes which affect the propagation of waves toward the shores while retaining the possibility of selecting any of the possible coastal areas in the whole Mediterranean Sea. The system is built on a very high resolution parallel implementation of the WAM and SWAN models, one-way chain-nested in key areas. The system will shortly be part of the ISPRA SIMM forecasting system which has been operative since 2001. The SIMM sistem makes available the high resolution wind fields (0.1/0.1 deg) used in the coastal system. The coastal system is being tested on several Italian coastal areas (Ligurian Sea, Lower Tyrrenian Sea, Sicily Channel, Lower Adriatic Sea) in order to optimise the numerics of the coastal processes and to verify the results in shallow waters and complex bathymetries. The results of the comparison between hindcast and buoy data in very shallow (14m depth) and deep sea (150m depth) will be shown for several episodes in the upper Tyrrenian Sea.

Planetary Wave Breaking and Tropospheric Forcing as Seen in the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of 2006

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

involved in this complex case ( Harnik et al. 2005). The forecasting experiments (Fig. 8) show, in this case, the importance of accurately forecasting the...Phoebus, 1992: The Navy’s operational atmospheric analysis. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 232–249. Harnik , N., R. K. Scott, and J. Perlwitz, 2005: Wave

Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.

2017-12-01

A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

Development of Operational Wave-Tide-Storm surges Coupling Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S. H.; Park, S. W.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, K. L.

2009-04-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surges, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module. In Korea, especially, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (STORM : Storm Surges/Tide Operational Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The STORM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and STORM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. These two operational models are coupled to simulate wave heights for typhoon case. The sea level and current simulated by storm surge model are used for the input of wave model with 3 hour interval. The coupling simulation between wave and storm surge model carried out for Typhoon Nabi (0514), Shanshan(0613) and Nari (0711) which were effected on Korea directly. We simulated significant wave height simulated by wave model and coupling model and compared difference between uncoupling and coupling cases for each typhoon. When the typhoon Nabi hit at southern coast of Kyushu, predicted significant wave height reached over 10 m. The difference of significant wave height between wave and wave-tide-storm surges model represents large variation at the southwestern coast of Korea with about 0.5 m. Other typhoon cases also show similar results with typhoon Nabi case. For typhoon Shanshan case the difference of significant wave height reached up to 0.3 m. When the typhoon Nari was affected in the southern coast of Korea, predicted significant wave height was about 5m. The typhoon Nari case also shows the difference of significant wave height similar with other typhoon cases. Using the observation from ocean buoy operated by KMA, we compared wave information simulated by wave and wave-storm surges coupling model. The significant wave height simulated by wave-tide-storm surges model shows the tidal modulation features in the western and southern coast of Korea. And the difference of significant wave height between two models reached up to 0.5 m. The coupling effect also can be identified in the wave direction, wave period and wave length. In addition, wave spectrum is also changeable due to coupling effect of wave-tide-storm surges model. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

Forecasting Ocean Waves: Comparing a Physics-Based Model with Statistical Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

m) 46029 (135 m) 46211 (38 m) ( CDIP -036) 42039 (307 m) 42040 (165 m) 42007 (14 m) Boundary forcing from NCEP WW3 ENP 15′×15′ resolution SWAN CNW-G1...wave energy. Acronyms and abbreviations CenGOOS Central Gulf Ocean Observing System CDIP Coastal Data Information Program CNW Coastal Northwest SWAN

Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

2018-03-01

Because of growing demand from agricultural planning, power management and activity scheduling, extended-range (5-30-day lead) forecasting of summer surface air temperature (SAT) and heat waves over China is carried out in the present study via spatial-temporal projection models (STPMs). Based on the training data during 1960-1999, the predictability sources are found to propagate from Europe, Northeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific, to influence the intraseasonal 10-80 day SAT over China. STPMs are therefore constructed using the projection domains, which are determined by these previous predictability sources. For the independent forecast period (2000-2013), the STPMs can reproduce EOF-filtered 30-80 day SAT at all lead times of 5-30 days over most part of China, and observed 30-80 and 10-80 day SAT at 25-30 days over eastern China. Significant pattern correlation coefficients account for more than 50% of total forecasts at all 5-30-day lead times against EOF-filtered and observed 30-80 day SAT, and at a 20-day lead time against observed 10-80 day SAT. The STPMs perform poorly in reproducing 10-30 day SAT. Forecasting for the first two modes of 10-30 day SAT only shows useful skill within a 15-day lead time. Forecasting for the third mode of 10-30 day SAT is useless after a 10-day lead time. The forecasted heat waves over China are determined by the reconstructed SAT which is the summation of the forecasted 10-80 day SAT and the lower frequency (longer than 80-day) climatological SAT. Over a large part of China, the STPMs can forecast more than 30% of heat waves within a 15-day lead time. In general, the STPMs demonstrate the promising skill for extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer SAT and heat waves.

Using HPC within an operational forecasting configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagers, H. R. A.; Genseberger, M.; van den Broek, M. A. F. H.

2012-04-01

Various natural disasters are caused by high-intensity events, for example: extreme rainfall can in a short time cause major damage in river catchments, storms can cause havoc in coastal areas. To assist emergency response teams in operational decisions, it's important to have reliable information and predictions as soon as possible. This starts before the event by providing early warnings about imminent risks and estimated probabilities of possible scenarios. In the context of various applications worldwide, Deltares has developed an open and highly configurable forecasting and early warning system: Delft-FEWS. Finding the right balance between simulation time (and hence prediction lead time) and simulation accuracy and detail is challenging. Model resolution may be crucial to capture certain critical physical processes. Uncertainty in forcing conditions may require running large ensembles of models; data assimilation techniques may require additional ensembles and repeated simulations. The computational demand is steadily increasing and data streams become bigger. Using HPC resources is a logical step; in different settings Delft-FEWS has been configured to take advantage of distributed computational resources available to improve and accelerate the forecasting process (e.g. Montanari et al, 2006). We will illustrate the system by means of a couple of practical applications including the real-time dynamic forecasting of wind driven waves, flow of water, and wave overtopping at dikes of Lake IJssel and neighboring lakes in the center of The Netherlands. Montanari et al., 2006. Development of an ensemble flood forecasting system for the Po river basin, First MAP D-PHASE Scientific Meeting, 6-8 November 2006, Vienna, Austria.

The Spectral Ocean Wave Model (SOWM), a Northern Hemisphere Computer Model for Specifying and Forecasting Ocean Wave Spectra

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-07-01

directions. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT A further sua-tion of (3) over the 15 frequency bands yields, within a linear model , the variance of a time history of...SPECTRAL Of.EAN WAVE MODEL (SOWM), A NORTHERN Final Report HEMtISPHEE COMPUTER MODELL Foyt SPECIFYING AND FORECASTING OCEAN WAVE .SftfTRA S EFRIGOG...Ocean Wave Model (SWM() In use at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center si.nce 1974 has been used to produce spectra for a 20- year ocean wave

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2015-01-01

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

The unusual wet summer (July) of 2014 in Southern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratna, Satyaban B.; Ratnam, J. V.; Behera, Swadhin K.; Cherchi, Annalisa; Wang, Wanqiu; Yamagata, Toshio

2017-06-01

Southern Europe (Italy and the surrounding countries) experienced an unusual wet summer in 2014. The monthly rainfall in July 2014 was 84% above (more than three standard deviation) normal with respect to the 1982-2013 July climatology. The heavy rainfall damaged agriculture, and affected tourism and overall economy of the region. In this study, we tried to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for such abnormal weather by using model and observed datasets. The anomalously high precipitation over Italy is found to be associated with the positive sea surface temperature (SST) and convective anomalies in the tropical Pacific through the atmospheric teleconnection. Rossby wave activity flux at upper levels shows an anomalous tropospheric quasi-stationary Rossby wave from the Pacific with an anomalous cyclonic phase over southern Europe. This anomalous cyclonic circulation is barotropic in nature and seen extending to lower atmospheric levels, weakening the seasonal high and causing heavy precipitation over the Southern Europe. The hypothesis is verified using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model (CFSv2) seasonal forecasts. It is found that two-month lead forecast of CFSv2 was able to capture the wet summer event of 2014 over Southern Europe. The teleconnection pattern from Pacific to Southern Europe was also forecasted realistically by the CFSv2 system.

An integrated weather and sea-state forecasting system for the Arabian Peninsula (WASSF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, George; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Mitsakou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Bartsotas, Nikolaos; Kalogrei, Christina; Athanaselis, Ioannis; Sofianos, Sarantis; Vervatis, Vassios; Axaopoulos, Panagiotis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Qahtani, Jumaan Al; Alaa, Elyas; Alexiou, Ioannis; Beard, Daniel

2013-04-01

Nowadays, large industrial conglomerates such as the Saudi ARAMCO, require a series of weather and sea state forecasting products that cannot be found in state meteorological offices or even commercial data providers. The two major objectives of the system is prevention and mitigation of environmental problems and of course early warning of local conditions associated with extreme weather events. The management and operations part is related to early warning of weather and sea-state events that affect operations of various facilities. The environmental part is related to air quality and especially the desert dust levels in the atmosphere. The components of the integrated system include: (i) a weather and desert dust prediction system with forecasting horizon of 5 days, (ii) a wave analysis and prediction component for Red Sea and Arabian Gulf, (iii) an ocean circulation and tidal analysis and prediction of both Red Sea and Arabian Gulf and (iv) an Aviation part specializing in the vertical structure of the atmosphere and extreme events that affect air transport and other operations. Specialized data sets required for on/offshore operations are provided ate regular basis. State of the art modeling components are integrated to a unique system that distributes the produced analysis and forecasts to each department. The weather and dust prediction system is SKIRON/Dust, the wave analysis and prediction system is based on WAM cycle 4 model from ECMWF, the ocean circulation model is MICOM while the tidal analysis and prediction is a development of the Ocean Physics and Modeling Group of University of Athens, incorporating the Tidal Model Driver. A nowcasting subsystem is included. An interactive system based on Google Maps gives the capability to extract and display the necessary information for any location of the Arabian Peninsula, the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf.

MMAB Operational Products

Science.gov Websites

Atlantic Real-Time Ocean Forecast System NOAA Wavewatch III® Ocean Wave Model Sea Ice Concentration Analysis Satellite Derived Ocean Surface Winds Daily Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Sea Ice Drift Model

Introduction on the operational storm surge forecasting system in Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jae-Il; Park, Kwang-Soon; Choi, Jung-Woon; Lee, Jong-Chan; Heo, Ki-Young; Kim, Sang-Ik

2017-04-01

During last more than 50 years, 258 typhoons passed and affected the Korean peninsula in terms of high winds, storm surges and extreme waves. In this study we explored the performance of the operational storm surge forecasting system in the Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) with 8 typhoons from 2010 to 2016. The operation storm surge forecasting system for the typhoon in KOOS is based on 2D depth averaged model with tides and CE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) wind model. Two key parameters of CE wind model, the locations of typhoon center and its central atmospheric pressure are based from Korea Meteorological administrative (KMA)'s typhoon information provided from 1 day to 3 hour intervals with the approach of typhoon through the KMA's web-site. For 8 typhoons cases, the overall errors, other performances and analysis such as peak time and surge duration are presented in each case. The most important factor in the storm surge errors in the operational forecasting system is the accuracy of typhoon passage prediction.

Characteristics of the Lower Atmosphere Influencing Radio Wave Propagation: Conference Proceedings Symposium of the Electromagnetic Wave Propagation Panel (33rd) Held at Spatind, Norway on 4-7 October 1983

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-02-01

selecting the most appropriate model is constrained by the problem faced by the system designer and/or system user, funding available, ability to collect...before new systems are designed . Propagation studies are somewhat cyclic in nature. When sufficient knowledge of a particular phenomenon for the...phenomena are continuing to be better understood in terms of absorption, attenuation, and forecasting. This leads to better system design . o Propagation

Evaluation of Regional Extended-Range Prediction for Tropical Waves Using COAMPS®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Reynolds, C. A.; Doyle, J. D.; May, P. W.; Chen, S.; Flatau, M. K.; O'Neill, L. W.

2014-12-01

The Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS1) in a two-way coupled mode is used for two-month regional extended-range prediction for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Tropical Cyclone 05 (TC05) that occurred during the DYNAMO period from November to December 2011. Verification and statistics from two experiments with 45-km and 27-km horizontal resolutions indicate that 27-km run provides a better representation of the three MJO events that occurred during this 2-month period, including the two convectively-coupled Kelvin waves associated with the second MJO event as observed. The 27-km run also significantly reduces forecast error after 15-days, reaching a maximum bias reduction of 89% in the third 15-day period due to the well represented MJO propagation over the Maritime Continent. Correlations between the model forecasts and observations or ECMWF analyses show that the MJO suppressed period is more difficult to predict than the active period. In addition, correlation coefficients for cloud liquid water path (CLWP) and precipitation are relatively low for both cases compared to other variables. The study suggests that a good simulation of TC05 and a good simulation of the Kelvin waves and westerly wind bursts are linked. Further research is needed to investigate the capability in regional extended-range forecasts when the lateral boundary conditions are provided from a long-term global forecast to allow for an assessment of potential operational forecast skill. _____________________________________________________ 1COAMPS is a registered trademark of U.S. Naval Research Laboratory

Steps towards a consistent Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wave hindcast (1979-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stopa, Justin E.; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Huchet, Marion; Accensi, Mickael

2017-04-01

Surface gravity waves are being increasingly recognized as playing an important role within the climate system. Wave hindcasts and reanalysis products of long time series (>30 years) have been instrumental in understanding and describing the wave climate for the past several decades and have allowed a better understanding of extreme waves and inter-annual variability. Wave hindcasts have the advantage of covering the oceans in higher space-time resolution than possible with conventional observations from satellites and buoys. Wave reanalysis systems like ECWMF's ERA-Interim directly included a wave model that is coupled to the ocean and atmosphere, otherwise reanalysis wind fields are used to drive a wave model to reproduce the wave field in long time series. The ERA Interim dataset is consistent in time, but cannot adequately resolve extreme waves. On the other hand, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSR) wind field better resolves the extreme wind speeds, but suffers from discontinuous features in time which are due to the quantity and quality of the remote sensing data incorporated into the product. Therefore, a consistent hindcast that resolves the extreme waves still alludes us limiting our understanding of the wave climate. In this study, we systematically correct the CFSR wind field to reproduce a homogeneous wave field in time. To verify the homogeneity of our hindcast we compute error metrics on a monthly basis using the observations from a merged altimeter wave database which has been calibrated and quality controlled from 1985-2016. Before 1985 only few wave observations exist and are limited to a select number of wave buoys mostly in the North Hemisphere. Therefore we supplement our wave observations with seismic data which responds to nonlinear wave interactions created by opposing waves with nearly equal wavenumbers. Within the CFSR wave hindcast, we find both spatial and temporal discontinuities in the error metrics. The Southern Hemisphere often has wind speed biases larger than the Northern Hemisphere and we propose a simple correction to reduce these features by applying a taper shaped by a half-Hanning window. The discontinuous features in time are corrected by scaling the entire wind field by percentages ranging typically ranging from 1-3%. Our analysis is performed on monthly time series and we expect the monthly statistics to be more adequate for climate studies.

Correcting wave predictions with artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarynskyy, O.; Makarynska, D.

2003-04-01

The predictions of wind waves with different lead times are necessary in a large scope of coastal and open ocean activities. Numerical wave models, which usually provide this information, are based on deterministic equations that do not entirely account for the complexity and uncertainty of the wave generation and dissipation processes. An attempt to improve wave parameters short-term forecasts based on artificial neural networks is reported. In recent years, artificial neural networks have been used in a number of coastal engineering applications due to their ability to approximate the nonlinear mathematical behavior without a priori knowledge of interrelations among the elements within a system. The common multilayer feed-forward networks, with a nonlinear transfer functions in the hidden layers, were developed and employed to forecast the wave characteristics over one hour intervals starting from one up to 24 hours, and to correct these predictions. Three non-overlapping data sets of wave characteristics, both from a buoy, moored roughly 60 miles west of the Aran Islands, west coast of Ireland, were used to train and validate the neural nets involved. The networks were trained with error back propagation algorithm. Time series plots and scatterplots of the wave characteristics as well as tables with statistics show an improvement of the results achieved due to the correction procedure employed.

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Wang, Hailan; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.

2013-01-01

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

The propagation of wind errors through ocean wave hindcasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holthuijsen, L.H.; Booij, N.; Bertotti, L.

1996-08-01

To estimate uncertainties in wave forecast and hindcasts, computations have been carried out for a location in the Mediterranean Sea using three different analyses of one historic wind field. These computations involve a systematic sensitivity analysis and estimated wind field errors. This technique enables a wave modeler to estimate such uncertainties in other forecasts and hindcasts if only one wind analysis is available.

The Mediterranean Forecasting System: recent developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonani, Marina; Oddo, Paolo; Korres, Gerasimos; Clementi, Emanuela; Dobricic, Srdjan; Drudi, Massimiliano; Pistoia, Jenny; Guarnieri, Antonio; Romaniello, Vito; Girardi, Giacomo; Grandi, Alessandro; Bonaduce, Antonio; Pinardi, Nadia

2014-05-01

Recent developments of the Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre of the EU-Copernicus marine service, the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS), are presented. MFS provides forecast, analysis and reanalysis for the physical and biogeochemical parameters of the Mediterranean Sea. The different components of the system are continuously updated in order to provide to the users the best available product. This work is focus on the physical component of the system. The physical core of MFS is composed by an ocean general circulation model (NEMO) coupled with a spectral wave model (Wave Watch-III). The NEMO model provides to WW-III surface currents and SST fields, while WW-III returns back to NEMO the neutral component of the surface drag coefficient. Satellite Sea Level Anomaly observations and in-situ T & S vertical profiles are assimilated into this system using a variational assimilation scheme based on 3DVAR (Dobricic, 2008) . Sensitive experiments have been performed in order to assess the impact of the assimilation of the latest available SLA missions, Altika and Cryosat together with the long term available mission of Jason2. The results show a significant improvement of the MFS skill due to the multi-mission along track assimilation. The primitive equations module has been recently upgraded with the introduction of the atmospheric pressure term and a new, explicit, numerical scheme has been adopted to solve the barotropic component of the equations of motion. The SLA satellite observations for data assimilation have been consequently modified in order to account for the new atmospheric pressure term introduced in the equations. This new system has been evaluated using tide gauge coastal buoys and the satellite along track data. The quality of the SSH has improved significantly while a minor impact has been observed on the other state variables (temperature, salinity and currents). Experiments with a higher resolution NWP (numerical weather prediction) forcing provided by the COSMO-MED system (provided by the Italian Meteorological Office), have been performed and a pre-operational 3-day forecast production system has been developed. The comparison between this system and the official one forced by the ECMWF NWP data will be discussed.

Communicating Climate Change - Weather Forecast Need Assessment and Information Dissemination Mechanism to Farmers in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is affecting all sectors mainly fresh water, agriculture, forest, biodiversity and species. The subsistence agriculture system of Nepal is mainly rain-fed; therefore, climate change and climate extremes do have direct impacts on it. Weather extremes like droughts, floods and landslides long-lasting fog, hot and cold waves are affecting the agriculture sectors of Nepal. As human-induced climate change has already showing its impacts and it is going to be there for a long time to come, it is paramount importance to move towards the adaptation. Early warning system is an effective way for reducing the impacts of disasters. Forecasting of weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) helps farmers for their preparedness activities. With consultation with farmers and other relevant institutions, a research project was carried out, for the first time in Nepal, to identify the forecast information need to farmers and their dissemination mechanism. Community consultation workshops, key informant survey, and field observations were the techniques used for this research. Two ecological locations: Bageshwori VDC in Banke (plain) and Dhaibung VDC in Rasuwa (mountain) were taken as the pilot sites for this assessment. People in both the districts are dependent highly on agriculture and the weather extremes like hailstone, untimely rainfall; droughts are affecting their agriculture practices. They do not have confidence in the weather forecast information disseminated by the government of Nepal currently being done because it is a general forecast not done for a smaller domain and the forecast is valid only for 24 hours. The weather forecast need to the farmers in both the sites are: rainfall (intensity, duration and time), drought, and hailstone but in Banke, people wished to have the information of heat and cold waves too as they are affecting their wheat and tomato crops respectively the most. The mechanism of dissemination of the forecast information has been identified and agreed as local radio/FM, mobile telephoning to community leader and displaying and daily updating the forecast information in community hoarding boards.

Global Turbulence Decision Support for Aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J.; Sharman, R.; Kessinger, C.; Feltz, W.; Wimmers, A.

2009-09-01

Turbulence is widely recognized as the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers on commercial air carriers, yet legacy decision support products such as SIGMETs and SIGWX charts provide relatively low spatial- and temporal-resolution assessments and forecasts of turbulence, with limited usefulness for strategic planning and tactical turbulence avoidance. A new effort is underway to develop an automated, rapid-update, gridded global turbulence diagnosis and forecast system that addresses upper-level clear-air turbulence, mountain-wave turbulence, and convectively-induced turbulence. This NASA-funded effort, modeled on the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) and GTG Nowcast systems, employs NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model output and data from NASA and operational satellites to produce quantitative turbulence nowcasts and forecasts. A convective nowcast element based on GFS forecasts and satellite data provides a basis for diagnosing convective turbulence. An operational prototype "Global GTG” system has been running in real-time at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research since the spring of 2009. Initial verification based on data from TRMM, Cloudsat and MODIS (for the convection nowcasting) and AIREPs and AMDAR data (for turbulence) are presented. This product aims to provide the "single authoritative source” for global turbulence information for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System.

Steps Towards an Operational Service Using Near Real-Time Altimeter Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ash, E. R.

2006-07-01

Thanks largely to modern computing power, numerical forecasts of w inds and waves over the oceans ar e ev er improving, offering greater accuracy and finer resolution in time and sp ace. Howev er, it is recognized that met-ocean models still have difficulty in accurately forecasting sever e w eather conditions, conditions that cause the most damag e and difficulty in mar itime operations. Ther efore a key requir emen t is to provid e improved information on sever e conditions. No individual measur emen t or prediction system is perfect. Offshore buoys provide a continuous long-ter m record of wind and wave conditions, but only at a limited numb er of sites. Satellite data offer all-weath er global cov erage, but with relatively infrequen t samp ling. Forecasts rely on imperf ect numerical schemes and the ab ility to manage a vast quantity of input data. Therefore the best system is one that integr ates information from all available sources, taking advantage of the benef its that each can offer. We report on an initiative supported by the European Space Agen cy (ESA) which investig ated how satellite data could be used to enhan ce systems to provide Near Real Time mon itor ing of met-ocean conditions.

Gravity Wave Predictability and Dynamics in Deepwave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, J. D.; Fritts, D. C.; Smith, R. B.; Eckermann, S. D.; Taylor, M. J.; Dörnbrack, A.; Uddstrom, M.; Reynolds, C. A.; Reinecke, A.; Jiang, Q.

2015-12-01

The DEEP propagating gravity WAVE program (DEEPWAVE) is a comprehensive, airborne and ground-based measurement and modeling program centered on New Zealand and focused on providing a new understanding of gravity wave dynamics and impacts from the troposphere through the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). This program employed the NSF/NCAR GV (NGV) research aircraft from a base in New Zealand in a 6-week field measurement campaign in June-July 2014. During the field phase, the NGV was equipped with new lidar and airglow instruments, as well as dropwindsondes and a full suite of flight level instruments including the microwave temperature profiler (MTP), providing temperatures and vertical winds spanning altitudes from immediately above the NGV flight altitude (~13 km) to ~100 km. The region near New Zealand was chosen since all the relevant GW sources (e.g., mountains, cyclones, jet streams) occur strongly here, and upper-level winds in austral winter permit gravity waves to propagate to very high altitudes. The COAMPS adjoint modeling system provided forecast sensitivity in real time during the six-week DEEPWAVE field phase. Five missions were conducted using the NGV to observe regions of high forecast sensitivity, as diagnosed using the COAMPS adjoint model. In this presentation, we provide a summary of the sensitivity characteristics and explore the implications for predictability of low-level winds crucial for gravity wave launching, as well as predictability of gravity wave characteristics in the stratosphere. In general, the sensitive regions were characterized by localized strong dynamics, often involving intense baroclinic systems with deep convection. The results of the adjoint modeling system suggest that gravity wave launching and the characteristics of the gravity waves can be linked to these sensitive regions near frontal zones within baroclinic systems. The predictability links between the tropospheric fronts, cyclones, jet regions, and gravity waves that vertically propagate upward through the stratosphere will be addressed further in the presentation. We examine RF23 during DEEPWAVE, which sampled deep propagating gravity waves over Auckland and Macquarie Islands. We provide insight into the gravity wave dynamics through applying the COAMPS and its adjoint at high resolution.

Observations and modeling of the effects of waves and rotors on submeso and turbulence variability within the stable boundary layer over central Pennsylvania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez Mullins, Astrid

Terrain-induced gravity waves and rotor circulations have been hypothesized to enhance the generation of submeso motions (i.e., nonstationary shear events with spatial and temporal scales greater than the turbulence scale and smaller than the meso-gamma scale) and to modulate low-level intermittency in the stable boundary layer (SBL). Intermittent turbulence, generated by submeso motions and/or the waves, can affect the atmospheric transport and dispersion of pollutants and hazardous materials. Thus, the study of these motions and the mechanisms through which they impact the weakly to very stable SBL is crucial for improving air quality modeling and hazard predictions. In this thesis, the effects of waves and rotor circulations on submeso and turbulence variability within the SBL is investigated over the moderate terrain of central Pennsylvania using special observations from a network deployed at Rock Springs, PA and high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts. The investigation of waves and rotors over central PA is important because 1) the moderate topography of this region is common to most of the eastern US and thus the knowledge acquired from this study can be of significance to a large population, 2) there have been little evidence of complex wave structures and rotors reported for this region, and 3) little is known about the waves and rotors generated by smaller and more moderate topographies. Six case studies exhibiting an array of wave and rotor structures are analyzed. Observational evidence of the presence of complex wave structures, resembling nonstationary trapped gravity waves and downslope windstorms, and complex rotor circulations, resembling trapped and jump-type rotors, is presented. These motions and the mechanisms through which they modulate the SBL are further investigated using high-resolution WRF forecasts. First, the efficacy of the 0.444-km horizontal grid spacing WRF model to reproduce submeso and meso-gamma motions, generated by waves and rotors and hypothesized to impact the SBL, is investigated using a new wavelet-based verification methodology for assessing non-deterministic model skill in the submeso and meso-gamma range to complement standard deterministic measures. This technique allows the verification and/or intercomparison of any two nonstationary stochastic systems without many of the limitations of typical wavelet-based verification approaches (e.g., selection of noise models, testing for significance, etc.). Through this analysis, it is shown that the WRF model largely underestimates the number of small amplitude fluctuations in the small submeso range, as expected; and it overestimates the number of small amplitude fluctuations in the meso-gamma range, generally resulting in forecasts that are too smooth. Investigation of the variability for different initialization strategies shows that deterministic wind speed predictions are less sensitive to the choice of initialization strategy than temperature forecasts. Similarly, investigation of the variability for various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations reveals that turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based schemes have an advantage over the non-local schemes for non-deterministic motions. The larger spread in the verification scores for various PBL parameterizations than initialization strategies indicates that PBL parameterization may play a larger role modulating the variability of non-deterministic motions in the SBL for these cases. These results confirm previous findings that have shown WRF to have limited skill forecasting submeso variability for periods greater than ~20 min. The limited skill of the WRF at these scales in these cases is related to the systematic underestimation of the amplitude of observed fluctuations. These results are implemented in the model design and configuration for the investigation of nonstationary waves and rotor structures modulating submeso and mesogamma motions and the SBL. Observations and WRF forecasts of two wave cases characterized by nonstationary waves and rotors are investigated to show the WRF model to have reasonable accuracy forecasting low-level temperature and wind speed in the SBL and to qualitatively produce rotors, similar to those observed, as well as some of the mechanisms modulating their development and evolution. Finally, observations and high-resolution WRF forecasts under different environmental conditions using various initialization strategies are used to investigate the impact of nonlinear gravity waves and rotor structures on the generation of intermittent turbulence and valley transport in the SBL. Evidence of the presence of elevated regions of TKE generated by the complex waves and rotors is presented and investigated using an additional four case studies, exhibiting two synoptic flow regimes and different wave and rotor structures. Throughout this thesis, terrain-induced gravity waves and rotors in the SBL are shown to synergistically interact with the surface cold pool and to enhance low-level turbulence intermittency through the development of submeso and meso-gamma motions. These motions are shown to be an important source of uncertainty for the atmospheric transport and dispersion of pollutants and hazardous materials under very stable conditions. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Skill assessment of a real-time forecast system utilizing a coupled hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic model during Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dresback, Kendra M.; Fleming, Jason G.; Blanton, Brian O.; Kaiser, Carola; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Tromble, Evan M.; Luettich, Richard A.; Kolar, Randall L.; Hong, Yang; Van Cooten, Suzanne; Vergara, Humberto J.; Flamig, Zac L.; Lander, Howard M.; Kelleher, Kevin E.; Nemunaitis-Monroe, Kodi L.

2013-12-01

Due to the devastating effects of recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico (e.g., Katrina, Rita, Ike and Gustav), the development of a high-resolution, real-time, total water level prototype system has been accelerated. The fully coupled model system that includes hydrology is an extension of the ADCIRC Surge Guidance System (ASGS), and will henceforth be referred to as ASGS-STORM (Scalable, Terrestrial, Ocean, River, Meteorological) to emphasize the major processes that are represented by the system.The ASGS-STORM system incorporates tides, waves, winds, rivers and surge to produce a total water level, which provides a holistic representation of coastal flooding. ASGS-STORM was rigorously tested during Hurricane Irene, which made landfall in late August 2011 in North Carolina. All results from ASGS-STORM for the advisories were produced in real-time, forced by forecast wind and pressure fields computed using a parametric tropical cyclone model, and made available via the web. Herein, a skill assessment, analyzing wind speed and direction, significant wave heights, and total water levels, is used to evaluate ASGS-STORM's performance during Irene for three advisories and the best track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). ASGS-STORM showed slight over-prediction for two advisories (Advisory 23 and 25) due to the over-estimation of the storm intensity. However, ASGS-STORM shows notable skill in capturing total water levels, wind speed and direction, and significant wave heights in North Carolina when utilizing Advisory 28, which had a slight shift in the track but provided a more accurate estimation of the storm intensity, along with the best track from the NHC. Results from ASGS-STORM have shown that as the forecast of the advisories improves, so does the accuracy of the models used in the study; therefore, accurate input from the weather forecast is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to ensure the accuracy of the guidance provided by the system. While Irene provided a real-time test of the viability of a total water level system, the relatively insignificant freshwater discharges precludes definitive conclusions about the role of freshwater discharges on total water levels in estuarine zones. Now that the system has been developed, on-going work will examine storms (e.g., Floyd) for which the freshwater discharge played a more meaningful role.

Oceanic sources of predictability for MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent in a subset of S2S forecast models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMott, C. A.; Klingaman, N. P.

2017-12-01

Skillful prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) passage across the Maritime Continent (MC) has important implications for global forecasts of high-impact weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and heat waves. The North American teleconnection response to the MJO is strongest when MJO convection is located in the western Pacific Ocean, but many climate and forecast models are deficient in their simulation of MC-crossing MJO events. Compared to atmosphere-only general circulation models (AGCMs), MJO simulation skill generally improves with the addition of ocean feedbacks in coupled GCMs (CGCMs). Using observations, previous studies have noted that the degree of ocean coupling may vary considerably from one MJO event to the next. The coupling mechanisms may be linked to the presence of ocean Equatorial Rossby waves, the sign and amplitude of Equatorial surface currents, and the upper ocean temperature and salinity profiles. In this study, we assess the role of ocean feedbacks to MJO prediction skill using a subset of CGCMs participating in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Project database. Oceanic observational and reanalysis datasets are used to characterize the upper ocean background state for observed MJO events that do and do not propagate beyond the MC. The ability of forecast models to capture the oceanic influence on the MJO is first assessed by quantifying SST forecast skill. Next, a set of previously developed air-sea interaction diagnostics is applied to model output to measure the role of SST perturbations on the forecast MJO. The "SST effect" in forecast MJO events is compared to that obtained from reanalysis data. Leveraging all ensemble members of a given forecast helps disentangle oceanic model biases from atmospheric model biases, both of which can influence the expression of ocean feedbacks in coupled forecast systems. Results of this study will help identify areas of needed model improvement for improved MJO forecasts.

Modeling High-Resolution Coastal Ocean Dynamics with COAMPS: System Overview, Applications and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, R. A.; Campbell, T. J.; Edwards, K. L.; Smith, T.; Martin, P.; Hebert, D. A.; Rogers, W.; Dykes, J. D.; Jacobs, G. A.; Spence, P. L.; Bartels, B.

2014-12-01

The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) is an atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system developed by the Naval Research Laboratory which can be configured to cycle regional forecasts/analysis models in single-model (atmosphere, ocean, and wave) or coupled-model (atmosphere-ocean, ocean-wave, and atmosphere-ocean-wave) modes. The model coupling is performed using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ocean component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), and the wave components include Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) and WaveWatch-III. NCOM has been modified to include wetting and drying, the effects of Stokes drift current, wave radiation stresses due to horizontal gradients of the momentum flux of surface waves, enhancement of bottom drag in shallow water, and enhanced vertical mixing due to Langmuir turbulence. An overview of the modeling system including ocean data assimilation and specification of boundary conditions will be presented. Results from a high-resolution (10-250m) modeling study from the Surfzone Coastal Oil Pathways Experiment (SCOPE) near Ft. Walton Beach, Florida in December 2013 will be presented. ®COAMPS is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

Verification of FLYSAFE Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) objects against aircraft turbulence measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lunnon, R.; Gill, P.; Reid, L.; Mirza, A.

2009-09-01

Prediction of gridded CAT fields The main causes of CAT are (a) Vertical wind shear - low Richardson Number (b) Mountain waves (c) Convection. All three causes contribute roughly equally to CAT occurrences, globally Prediction of shear induced CAT The predictions of shear induced CAT has a longer history than either mountain-wave induced CAT or convectively induced CAT. Both Global Aviation Forecasting Centres are currently using the Ellrod TI1 algorithm (Ellrod and Knapp, 1992). This predictor is the scalar product of deformation [akm1]and vertical wind shear. More sophisticated algorithms can amplify errors in non-linear, differentiated quantities so it is very likely that Ellrod will out-perform other algorithms when verified globally. Prediction of mountain wave CAT The Global Aviation Forecasting Centre in the UK has been generating automated forecasts of mountain wave CAT since the late 1990s, based on the diagnosis of gravity wave drag. Generation of CAT objects In the FLYSAFE project it was decided at an early stage that short range forecasts of meteorological hazards, i.e. icing, Clear Air Turbulence, Cumulonimbus Clouds, should be represented as weather objects, that is, descriptions of individual hazardous volumes of airspace. For CAT, the forecast information on which the weather objects were based was gridded, that comprised a representation of a hazard level for all points in a pre-defined 3-D grid, for a range of forecast times. A "grid-to-objects" capability was generated. This is discussed further in Mirza and Drouin (this conference). Verification of CAT forecasts Verification was performed using digital accelerometer data from aircraft in the British Airways Boeing 747 fleet. A preliminary processing of the aircraft data were performed to generate a truth field on a scale similar to that used to provide gridded forecasts to airlines. This truth field was binary, i.e. each flight segment was characterised as being either "turbulent" or "benign". A gridded forecast field is a continuously changing variable. In contrast, a simple weather object must be characterised by a specific threshold. For a gridded forecast and a binary truth measure it is possible to generate Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. For weather objects, a single point in the hit-rate/false-alarm-rate space can be generated. If this point is plotted on a ROC curve graph then the skill of the forecast using weather objects can be compared with the skill of the gridded forecast.

Use of ground-based wind profiles in mesoscale forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlatter, Thomas W.

1985-01-01

A brief review is presented of recent uses of ground-based wind profile data in mesoscale forecasting. Some of the applications are in real time, and some are after the fact. Not all of the work mentioned here has been published yet, but references are given wherever possible. As Gage and Balsley (1978) point out, sensitive Doppler radars have been used to examine tropospheric wind profiles since the 1970's. It was not until the early 1980's, however, that the potential contribution of these instruments to operational forecasting and numerical weather prediction became apparent. Profiler winds and radiosonde winds compare favorably, usually within a few m/s in speed and 10 degrees in direction (see Hogg et al., 1983), but the obvious advantage of the profiler is its frequent (hourly or more often) sampling of the same volume. The rawinsonde balloon is launched only twice a day and drifts with the wind. In this paper, I will: (1) mention two operational uses of data from a wind profiling system developed jointly by the Wave Propagation and Aeronomy Laboratories of NOAA; (2) describe a number of displays of these same data on a workstation for mesoscale forecasting developed by the Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS); and (3) explain some interesting diagnostic calculations performed by meteorologists of the Wave Propagation Laboratory.

Mediterranean monitoring and forecasting operational system for Copernicus Marine Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppini, Giovanni; Drudi, Massimiliano; Korres, Gerasimos; Fratianni, Claudia; Salon, Stefano; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Clementi, Emanuela; Zacharioudaki, Anna; Grandi, Alessandro; Delrosso, Damiano; Pistoia, Jenny; Solidoro, Cosimo; Pinardi, Nadia; Lecci, Rita; Agostini, Paola; Cretì, Sergio; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Palermo, Francesco; Konstantinidou, Anna; Storto, Andrea; Simoncelli, Simona; Di Pietro, Pier Luigi; Masina, Simona; Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Ravdas, Michalis; Mancini, Marco; Aloisio, Giovanni; Fiore, Sandro; Buonocore, Mauro

2016-04-01

The MEDiterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (Med-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://marine.copernicus.eu/), provided on an operational mode by Mercator Ocean in agreement with the European Commission. Specifically, Med MFC system provides regular and systematic information about the physical state of the ocean and marine ecosystems for the Mediterranean Sea. The Med-MFC service started in May 2015 from the pre-operational system developed during the MyOcean projects, consolidating the understanding of regional Mediterranean Sea dynamics, from currents to biogeochemistry to waves, interfacing with local data collection networks and guaranteeing an efficient link with other Centers in Copernicus network. The Med-MFC products include analyses, 10 days forecasts and reanalysis, describing currents, temperature, salinity, sea level and pelagic biogeochemistry. Waves products will be available in MED-MFC version in 2017. The consortium, composed of INGV (Italy), HCMR (Greece) and OGS (Italy) and coordinated by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC, Italy), performs advanced R&D activities and manages the service delivery. The Med-MFC infrastructure consists of 3 Production Units (PU), for Physics, Biogechemistry and Waves, a unique Dissemination Unit (DU) and Archiving Unit (AU) and Backup Units (BU) for all principal components, guaranteeing a resilient configuration of the service and providing and efficient and robust solution for the maintenance of the service and delivery. The Med-MFC includes also an evolution plan, both in terms of research and operational activities, oriented to increase the spatial resolution of products, to start wave products dissemination, to increase temporal extent of the reanalysis products and improving ocean physical modeling for delivering new products. The scientific activities carried out in 2015 concerned some improvements in the physical, biogeochemical and wave components of the system. Regarding the currents, new grid-point EOFs have been implemented in the Med-MFC assimilation system; the climatological CMAP precipitation was replaced by the ECMWF daily precipitation; reanalysis time-series have been increased by one year. Regarding the biogeochemistry, the main scientific achievement is related to the implementation of the carbon system in the Med-MFC biogeochemistry model system already available. The new model is able to reproduce the principal spatial patterns of the carbonate system variables in the Mediterranean Sea. Further, a key result consists of the calibration of the new variables (DIC and alkalinity), which serves to the estimation of the accuracy of the new products to be released in the next version of the system (i.e. pH and pCO2 at surface). Regarding the waves, the system has been validated against in-situ and satellite observations. For example, a very good agreement between model output and in-situ observations has been obtained at offshore and/or well-exposed wave buoys in the Mediterranean Sea.

Sea-Salt Aerosol Forecasts Compared with Wave and Sea-Salt Measurements in the Open Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Starobinets, B.; Bozzano, R.; Pensieri, S.; Canepa, E.; Nickovie, S.; di Sarra, A.; Udisti, R.; Becagli, S.; Alpert, P.

2012-03-01

Sea-salt aerosol (SSA) could influence the Earth's climate acting as cloud condensation nuclei. However, there were no regular measurements of SSA in the open sea. At Tel-Aviv University, the DREAM-Salt prediction system has been producing daily forecasts of 3-D distribution of sea-salt aerosol concentrations over the Mediterranean Sea (http://wind.tau.ac.il/saltina/ salt.html). In order to evaluate the model performance in the open sea, daily modeled concentrations were compared directly with SSA measurements taken at the tiny island of Lampedusa, in the Central Mediterranean. In order to further test the robustness of the model, the model performance over the open sea was indirectly verified by comparing modeled SSA concentrations with wave height measurements collected by the ODAS Italia 1 buoy and the Llobregat buoy. Model-vs.-measurement comparisons show that the model is capable of producing realistic SSA concentrations and their day-today variations over the open sea, in accordance with observed wave height and wind speed.

Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

2017-12-01

The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

The Global Signature of Ocean Wave Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portilla-Yandún, Jesús

2018-01-01

A global atlas of ocean wave spectra is developed and presented. The development is based on a new technique for deriving wave spectral statistics, which is applied to the extensive ERA-Interim database from European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Spectral statistics is based on the idea of long-term wave systems, which are unique and distinct at every geographical point. The identification of those wave systems allows their separation from the overall spectrum using the partition technique. Their further characterization is made using standard integrated parameters, which turn out much more meaningful when applied to the individual components than to the total spectrum. The parameters developed include the density distribution of spectral partitions, which is the main descriptor; the identified wave systems; the individual distribution of the characteristic frequencies, directions, wave height, wave age, seasonal variability of wind and waves; return periods derived from extreme value analysis; and crossing-sea probabilities. This information is made available in web format for public use at http://www.modemat.epn.edu.ec/#/nereo. It is found that wave spectral statistics offers the possibility to synthesize data while providing a direct and comprehensive view of the local and regional wave conditions.

A proposal of monitoring and forecasting system for crustal activity in and around Japan using a large-scale high-fidelity finite element simulation codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, Takane; Ichimura, Tsuyoshi; Takahashi, Narumi

2017-04-01

Here we propose a system for monitoring and forecasting of crustal activity, such as spatio-temporal variation in slip velocity on the plate interface including earthquakes, seismic wave propagation, and crustal deformation. Although, we can obtain continuous dense surface deformation data on land and partly on the sea floor, the obtained data are not fully utilized for monitoring and forecasting. It is necessary to develop a physics-based data analysis system including (1) a structural model with the 3D geometry of the plate interface and the material property such as elasticity and viscosity, (2) calculation code for crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation using (1), (3) inverse analysis or data assimilation code both for structure and fault slip using (1) & (2). To accomplish this, it is at least necessary to develop highly reliable large-scale simulation code to calculate crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation for 3D heterogeneous structure. Actually, Ichimura et al. (2015, SC15) has developed unstructured FE non-linear seismic wave simulation code, which achieved physics-based urban earthquake simulation enhanced by 1.08 T DOF x 6.6 K time-step. Ichimura et al. (2013, GJI) has developed high fidelity FEM simulation code with mesh generator to calculate crustal deformation in and around Japan with complicated surface topography and subducting plate geometry for 1km mesh. Fujita et al. (2016, SC16) has improved the code for crustal deformation and achieved 2.05 T-DOF with 45m resolution on the plate interface. This high-resolution analysis enables computation of change of stress acting on the plate interface. Further, for inverse analyses, Errol et al. (2012, BSSA) has developed waveform inversion code for modeling 3D crustal structure, and Agata et al. (2015, AGU Fall Meeting) has improved the high-fidelity FEM code to apply an adjoint method for estimating fault slip and asthenosphere viscosity. Hence, we have large-scale simulation and analysis tools for monitoring. Furthermore, we are developing the methods for forecasting the slip velocity variation on the plate interface. Basic concept is given in Hori et al. (2014, Oceanography) introducing ensemble based sequential data assimilation procedure. Although the prototype described there is for elastic half space model, we are applying it for 3D heterogeneous structure with the high-fidelity FE model.

An Overview of the National Weather Service National Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, B.; Gochis, D.; Clark, E. P.; Cui, Z.; Dugger, A. L.; Feng, X.; Karsten, L. R.; Khan, S.; Kitzmiller, D.; Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; McCreight, J. L.; Newman, A. J.; Oubeidillah, A.; Pan, L.; Pham, C.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Sood, G.; Wood, A.; Yates, D. N.; Yu, W.

2016-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Water Prediction (OWP), in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) recently implemented version 1.0 of the National Water Model (NWM) into operations. This model is an hourly cycling uncoupled analysis and forecast system that provides streamflow for 2.7 million river reaches and other hydrologic information on 1km and 250m grids. It will provide complementary hydrologic guidance at current NWS river forecast locations and significantly expand guidance coverage and type in underserved locations. The core of this system is the NCAR-supported community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro hydrologic model. It ingests forcing from a variety of sources including Multi-Sensor Multi-Radar (MRMS) radar-gauge observed precipitation data and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), Rapid Refresh (RAP), Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast data. WRF-Hydro is configured to use the Noah-Multi Parameterization (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate land surface processes. Separate water routing modules perform diffusive wave surface routing and saturated subsurface flow routing on a 250m grid, and Muskingum-Cunge channel routing down National Hydrogaphy Dataset Plus V2 (NHDPlusV2) stream reaches. River analyses and forecasts are provided across a domain encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS) and hydrologically contributing areas, while land surface output is available on a larger domain that extends beyond the CONUS into Canada and Mexico (roughly from latitude 19N to 58N). The system includes an analysis and assimilation configuration along with three forecast configurations. These include a short-range 15 hour deterministic forecast, a medium-Range 10 day deterministic forecast and a long-range 30 day 16-member ensemble forecast. United Sates Geologic Survey (USGS) streamflow observations are assimilated into the analysis and assimilation configuration, and all four configurations benefit from the inclusion of 1,260 reservoirs. An overview of the National Water Model will be given, along with information on ongoing evaluation activities and plans for future NWM enhancements.

Demystifying the Complexities of Gravity Wave Dynamics in the Middle Atmosphere: a Roadmap to Improved Weather Forecasts through High-Fidelity Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mixa, T.; Fritts, D. C.; Bossert, K.; Laughman, B.; Wang, L.; Lund, T.; Kantha, L. H.

2017-12-01

Gravity waves play a profound role in the mixing of the atmosphere, transporting vast amounts of momentum and energy among different altitudes as they propagate vertically. Above 60km in the middle atmosphere, high wave amplitudes enable a series of complex, nonlinear interactions with the background environment that produce highly-localized wind and temperature variations which alter the layering structure of the atmosphere. These small-scale interactions account for a significant portion of energy transport in the middle atmosphere, but they are difficult to characterize, occurring at spatial scales that are both challenging to observe with ground instruments and prohibitively small to include in weather forecasting models. Using high fidelity numerical simulations, these nuanced wave interactions are analyzed to better our understanding of these dynamics and improve the accuracy of long-term weather forecasting.

A proposal of monitoring and forecasting system for crustal activity in and around Japan using a large-scale high-fidelity finite element simulation codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, T.; Ichimura, T.

2015-12-01

Here we propose a system for monitoring and forecasting of crustal activity, especially great interplate earthquake generation and its preparation processes in subduction zone. Basically, we model great earthquake generation as frictional instability on the subjecting plate boundary. So, spatio-temporal variation in slip velocity on the plate interface should be monitored and forecasted. Although, we can obtain continuous dense surface deformation data on land and partly at the sea bottom, the data obtained are not fully utilized for monitoring and forecasting. It is necessary to develop a physics-based data analysis system including (1) a structural model with the 3D geometry of the plate interface and the material property such as elasticity and viscosity, (2) calculation code for crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation using (1), (3) inverse analysis or data assimilation code both for structure and fault slip using (1)&(2). To accomplish this, it is at least necessary to develop highly reliable large-scale simulation code to calculate crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation for 3D heterogeneous structure. Actually, Ichimura et al. (2014, SC14) has developed unstructured FE non-linear seismic wave simulation code, which achieved physics-based urban earthquake simulation enhanced by 10.7 BlnDOF x 30 K time-step. Ichimura et al. (2013, GJI) has developed high fidelity FEM simulation code with mesh generator to calculate crustal deformation in and around Japan with complicated surface topography and subducting plate geometry for 1km mesh. Further, for inverse analyses, Errol et al. (2012, BSSA) has developed waveform inversion code for modeling 3D crustal structure, and Agata et al. (2015, this meeting) has improved the high fidelity FEM code to apply an adjoint method for estimating fault slip and asthenosphere viscosity. Hence, we have large-scale simulation and analysis tools for monitoring. Furthermore, we are developing the methods for forecasting the slip velocity variation on the plate interface. Basic concept is given in Hori et al. (2014, Oceanography) introducing ensemble based sequential data assimilation procedure. Although the prototype described there is for elastic half space model, we will apply it for 3D heterogeneous structure with the high fidelity FE model.

Adjoint-Based Sensitivity Maps for the Nearshore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzech, Mark; Veeramony, Jay; Ngodock, Hans

2013-04-01

The wave model SWAN (Booij et al., 1999) solves the spectral action balance equation to produce nearshore wave forecasts and climatologies. It is widely used by the coastal modeling community and is part of a variety of coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere model systems. A variational data assimilation system (Orzech et al., 2013) has recently been developed for SWAN and is presently being transitioned to operational use by the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office. This system is built around a numerical adjoint to the fully nonlinear, nonstationary SWAN code. When provided with measured or artificial "observed" spectral wave data at a location of interest on a given nearshore bathymetry, the adjoint can compute the degree to which spectral energy levels at other locations are correlated with - or "sensitive" to - variations in the observed spectrum. Adjoint output may be used to construct a sensitivity map for the entire domain, tracking correlations of spectral energy throughout the grid. When access is denied to the actual locations of interest, sensitivity maps can be used to determine optimal alternate locations for data collection by identifying regions of greatest sensitivity in the mapped domain. The present study investigates the properties of adjoint-generated sensitivity maps for nearshore wave spectra. The adjoint and forward SWAN models are first used in an idealized test case at Duck, NC, USA, to demonstrate the system's effectiveness at optimizing forecasts of shallow water wave spectra for an inaccessible surf-zone location. Then a series of simulations is conducted for a variety of different initializing conditions, to examine the effects of seasonal changes in wave climate, errors in bathymetry, and variations in size and shape of the inaccessible region of interest. Model skill is quantified using two methods: (1) a more traditional correlation of observed and modeled spectral statistics such as significant wave height, and (2) a recently developed RMS spectral skill score summed over all frequency-directional bins. The relative advantages and disadvantages of these two methods are considered. References: Booij, N., R.C. Ris, and L.H. Holthuijsen, 1999: A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation. J. Geophys. Res. 104 (C4), 7649-7666. Orzech, M.D., J. Veeramony, and H.E. Ngodock, 2013: A variational assimilation system for nearshore wave modeling. J. Atm. & Oc. Tech., in press.

Investigation of fog structure affected by gravity waves and turbulence in the mountainous region of Pyeongchang, Korea, the place for the 2018 Winter Olympics and Paralympics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La, I.; Yum, S. S.; Yeom, J. M.; Gultepe, I.

2017-12-01

Since microphysical and dynamical processes of fog are not well-known and have non-linear relationships among processes that are related to fog formation, improving the accuracy of the fog forecasting/nowcasting system is challenging. For these reasons, understanding the fog mechanism is needed to develop the fog forecasting system. So, we focus on understanding fog-turbulence interactions and fog-gravity wave interactions. Many studies noted that turbulence plays important roles in fog. However, a discrepancy between arguments for the effect of turbulent mixing on fog formation exists. Several studies suggested that turbulent mixing suppresses fog formation. Some other studies reported that turbulent mixing contributes to fog formation. On the other hand, several quasi-periodic oscillations of temperature, visibility, and vertical velocity, which have period of 10-20 minutes, were observed to be related to gravity waves in fog; because gravity waves play significant dynamic roles in the atmosphere. Furthermore, a numerical study suggested that gravity waves, simulated near the top of the fog layer, may affect fog microphysics. Thus, we investigate the effects of turbulent mixing on fog formation and the influences of gravity waves on fog microphysics to understand fog structure in Pyeongchang. In these studies, we analyze the data that are obtained from doppler lidar and 3.5 m meteorological observation tower including 3D-ultrasonic anemometer, IR sensor, and fog monitor during ICE-POP (International Collaborative Experiments for Pyeongchang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games) campaign. In these instruments, doppler lidar is a good instrument to observe the gravity waves near the fog top, while in situ measurements have small spatial coverage. The instruments are installed at the mountainous terrain of Pyeongchang, Korea. More details will be presented at the conference.

Skill assessment of Korea operational oceanographic system (KOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Park, K.

2016-02-01

For the ocean forecast system in Korea, the Korea operational oceanographic system (KOOS) has been developed and pre-operated since 2009 by the Korea institute of ocean science and technology (KIOST) funded by the Korean government. KOOS provides real time information and forecasts for marine environmental conditions in order to support all kinds of activities in the sea. Furthermore, more significant purpose of the KOOS information is to response and support to maritime problems and accidents such as oil spill, red-tide, shipwreck, extraordinary wave, coastal inundation and so on. Accordingly, it is essential to evaluate prediction accuracy and efforts to improve accuracy. The forecast accuracy should meet or exceed target benchmarks before its products are approved for release to the public.In this paper, we conduct error quantification of the forecasts using skill assessment technique for judgement of the KOOS performance. Skill assessment statistics includes the measures of errors and correlations such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), mean bias (MB), correlation coefficient (R), and index of agreement (IOA) and the frequency with which errors lie within specified limits termed the central frequency (CF).The KOOS provides 72-hour daily forecast data such as air pressure, wind, water elevation, currents, wave, water temperature, and salinity produced by meteorological and hydrodynamic numerical models of WRF, ROMS, MOM5, WAM, WW3, and MOHID. The skill assessment has been performed through comparison of model results with in-situ observation data (Figure 1) for the period from 1 July, 2010 to 31 March, 2015 in Table 1 and model errors have been quantified with skill scores and CF determined by acceptable criteria depending on predicted variables (Table 2). Moreover, we conducted quantitative evaluation of spatio-temporal pattern correlation between numerical models and observation data such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface current produced by ocean sensor in satellites and high frequency (HF) radar, respectively. Those quantified errors can allow to objective assessment of the KOOS performance and used can reveal different aspects of model inefficiency. Based on these results, various model components are tested and developed in order to improve forecast accuracy.

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007). Part I: The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

the boundary layer does not overcome the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface. As suggested by Montgomery et al. (2006), cold pools of...Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes...from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a

Framework of distributed coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuanqiao; Huang, Liwen; Deng, Jian; Zhang, Jinfeng; Wang, Sisi; Wang, Lijun

2006-05-01

In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.

NERACOOS | weather | ocean | marine forecast | waves | buoy | marine

Science.gov Websites

to address today's highly complex ocean and coastal challenges through integrated graduate education Avery Point campus faculty, staff and students carry out cutting-edge research in coastal oceanography Ocean Data Products team Regional Coastal Observing Systems: Alaska * Pacific Northwest * Central and

Multi-Spacecraft Data Assimilation and Reanalysis During the THEMIS and Van Allen Probes Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Podladchikova, T.; Drozdov, A.; Subbotin, D.

2013-12-01

Earth's radiation belts are a dynamic system, controlled by competition between source, acceleration, loss and transport of particles. Solar wind pressure enhancements and outward transport are responsible for loss of electrons to the magnetopause, while wave-particle interactions inside the magnetosphere, driven by solar wind pressure and velocity variations, may lead to acceleration and radial diffusion of 10's of keV to MeV energy electrons, and pitch-angle scattering loss to the atmosphere. An understanding of the mechanisms behind the observed dynamics is critical to accurate modeling and hence forecasting of radiation belt conditions, important for design, and protection of our space-borne assets. The Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) model solves the Fokker-Planck diffusion equation in three dimensional invariant coordinates, which allows one to more effectively separate adiabatic and non-adiabatic changes in the radiation belt electron population. The model includes geomagnetic storm intensity dependent parameterizations of the following dominant magnetospheric waves: day- and night-side chorus, plasmaspheric hiss (in the inner magnetosphere and inside the plume region), lightning and anthropogenic generated waves, and electro-magnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, also inside of plasmaspheric plumes. The model is used to forecast the future state of the radiation belt electron population, while real-time data may be used to update the current state of the belts through assimilation with the model. The Kalman filter provides a computationally inexpensive method to assimilate data with a model, while taking into account the errors associated with each. System identification is performed to determine the model and observational bias and errors. The Kalman filter outputs an optimal estimate of the actual system state and the Kalman-gain weighted corrections (innovation) may be used to identify systematic differences between data and the model. Careful consideration of the innovation vector may lead to a new physical understanding of the radiation belt system, which can later be used to improve our model forecasts. In the current study, we explore the radiation belt dynamics of the current era including data from the THEMIS, Van Allen Probes, GPS satellites, Akebono, NOAA and Cluster spacecraft. Intercalibration is performed between spacecraft on an individual energy channel basis, and in invariant coordinates. The global reanalysis allows an unprecedented analysis of the source-acceleration-transport-loss relationship in Earth's radiation belts. This analysis is used to refine our model capabilities, and to prepare the 3-D reanalysis for real-time data. The global 3-D reanalysis is an important step towards full-scale modeling and operational forecasting of this dynamic region of space.

Measuring ocean waves from space; Proceedings of the Symposium, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD, Apr. 15-17, 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beal, Robert C. (Editor)

1987-01-01

Papers are presented on ocean-wave prediction; the quasi-universal form of the spectra of wind-generated gravity waves at different stages of their development; the limitations of the spectral measurements and observations of the group structure of surface waves; the effect of swell on the growth of wind wave; operational wave forecasting; ocean-wave models, and seakeeping using directional wave spectra. Consideration is given to microwave measurements of the ocean-wave directional spectra; SIR research; estimating wave energy spectra from SAR imagery, with the radar ocean-wave spectrometer, and SIR-B; the wave-measurement capabilities of the surface contour radar and the airborne oceanographic lidar; and SIR-B ocean-wave enhancement with fast-Fourier transform techniques. Topics discussed include wave-current interaction; the design and applicability of Spectrasat; the need for a global wave monitoring system; the age and source of ocean swell observed in Hurricane Josephine; and the use of satellite technology for insulin treatment.

Trapped mountain wave excitations over the Kathmandu valley, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regmi, Ram P.; Maharjan, Sangeeta

2015-11-01

Mid-wintertime spatial and temporal distributions of mountain wave excitation over the Kathmandu valley has been numerically simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. The study shows that low-level trapped mountain waves may remain very active during the night and early morning in the sky over the southern rim of the surrounding mountains, particularly, over the lee of Mt. Fulchoki. Calculations suggest that mountain wave activities are at minimum level during afternoon. The low-level trapped mountain waves in the sky over southern gateway of Tribhuvan International Airport (TIA) may pose risk for landings and takeoffs of light aircrafts. Detailed numerical and observational studies would be very important to reduce risk of air accidents and discomfort in and around the Kathmandu valley.

Coastal Wave Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

Directional wave spectra analysis from a cross-shore array of acoustic Doppler profilers, accepted paper, 12th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting, 30 October – 4 November 2011, Hilo , Hawaii .

Hydrological Predictability for the Peruvian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towner, Jamie; Stephens, Elizabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Bazo, Juan; Coughlan, Erin; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Population growth in the Peruvian Amazon has prompted the expansion of livelihoods further into the floodplain and thus increasing vulnerability to the annual rise and fall of the river. This growth has coincided with a period of increasing hydrological extremes with more frequent severe flood events. The anticipation and forecasting of these events is crucial for mitigating vulnerability. Forecast-based Financing (FbF) an initiative of the German Red Cross implements risk reducing actions based on threshold exceedance within hydrometeorological forecasts using the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). However, the lead times required to complete certain actions can be long (e.g. several weeks to months ahead to purchase materials and reinforce houses) and are beyond the current capabilities of GloFAS. Therefore, further calibration of the model is required in addition to understanding the climatic drivers and associated hydrological response for specific flood events, such as those observed in 2009, 2012 and 2015. This review sets out to determine the current capabilities of the GloFAS model while exploring the limits of predictability for the Amazon basin. More specifically, how the temporal patterns of flow within the main coinciding tributaries correspond to the overall Amazonian flood wave under various climatic and meteorological influences. Linking the source areas of flow to predictability within the seasonal forecasting system will develop the ability to expand the limit of predictability of the flood wave. This presentation will focus on the Iquitos region of Peru, while providing an overview of the new techniques and current challenges faced within seasonal flood prediction.

Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup,swash, and runup. Coastal engineering, 53(7), 573-588.

The international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the coastal hazards symposium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Swail, Val; Babanin, Alexander V.; Horsburgh, Kevin

2015-05-01

Following the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 4th Coastal Hazards Symposium in October 2013 in Banff, Canada, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here, we give a brief overview of the history of the conference since its inception in 1986 and of the progress made in the fields of wind-generated ocean waves and the modelling of coastal hazards before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection.

An Evaluation of a High-Resolution Operational Wave Forecasting System in the Adriatic Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

work of Martina Tudor. We thank APAT for sharing RON wave buoy data. We thank Jacopo Chiggiato and Servizio Idro-Meteo-Clima ARPA-SIMC of Emilia...influences on the Adriatic sirocco wind. Ann. Geophys. 25.1263-1267. Pasaric. Z., BeluSic, D.. Chiggiato . J.. 2009. Orographic effects on meteorological...Southern California Bight. Coastal Eng. 54(1). 1-15. Signell. R.P.S.. Camiel. S., Cavaleri. L. Chiggiato . J.. Doyle. J.D.. Pullen. J„ Scavo. M

UK Environmental Prediction - integration and evaluation at the convective scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallmann, Joachim; Lewis, Huw; Castillo, Juan Manuel; Pearson, David; Harris, Chris; Saulter, Andy; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor

2016-04-01

It has long been understood that accurate prediction and warning of the impacts of severe weather requires an integrated approach to forecasting. For example, high impact weather is typically manifested through various interactions and feedbacks between different components of the Earth System. Damaging high winds can lead to significant damage from the large waves and storm surge along coastlines. The impact of intense rainfall can be translated through saturated soils and land surface processes, high river flows and flooding inland. The substantial impacts on individuals, businesses and infrastructure of such events indicate a pressing need to understand better the value that might be delivered through more integrated environmental prediction. To address this need, the Met Office, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and NERC National Oceanography Centre have begun to develop the foundations of a coupled high resolution probabilistic forecast system for the UK at km-scale. This links together existing model components of the atmosphere, coastal ocean, land surface and hydrology. Our initial focus has been on a 2-year Prototype project to demonstrate the UK coupled prediction concept in research mode. This presentation will provide an update on UK environmental prediction activities. We will present the results from the initial implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system and discuss progress and initial results from further development to integrate wave interactions. We will discuss future directions and opportunities for collaboration in environmental prediction, and the challenges to realise the potential of integrated regional coupled forecasting for improving predictions and applications.

Gravity Waves and Mesospheric Clouds in the Summer Middle Atmosphere: A Comparison of Lidar Measurements and Ray Modeling of Gravity Waves Over Sondrestrom, Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerrard, Andrew J.; Kane, Timothy J.; Eckermann, Stephen D.; Thayer, Jeffrey P.

2004-01-01

We conducted gravity wave ray-tracing experiments within an atmospheric region centered near the ARCLITE lidar system at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67N, 310 deg E), in efforts to understand lidar observations of both upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric clouds during August 1996 and the summer of 2001. The ray model was used to trace gravity waves through realistic three-dimensional daily-varying background atmospheres in the region, based on forecasts and analyses in the troposphere and stratosphere and climatologies higher up. Reverse ray tracing based on upper stratospheric lidar observations at Sondrestrom was also used to try to objectively identify wave source regions in the troposphere. A source spectrum specified by reverse ray tracing experiments in early August 1996 (when atmospheric flow patterns produced enhanced transmission of waves into the upper stratosphere) yielded model results throughout the remainder of August 1996 that agreed best with the lidar observations. The model also simulated increased vertical group propagation of waves between 40 km and 80 km due to intensifying mean easterlies, which allowed many of the gravity waves observed at 40 km over Sondrestrom to propagate quasi-vertically from 40-80 km and then interact with any mesospheric clouds at 80 km near Sondrestrom, supporting earlier experimentally-inferred correlations between upper stratospheric gravity wave activity and mesospheric cloud backscatter from Sondrestrom lidar observations. A pilot experiment of real-time runs with the model in 2001 using weather forecast data as a low-level background produced less agreement with lidar observations. We believe this is due to limitations in our specified tropospheric source spectrum, the use of climatological winds and temperatures in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and missing lidar data from important time periods.

Long- Range Forecasting Of The Onset Of Southwest Monsoon Winds And Waves Near The Horn Of Africa

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

SUMMARY OF CLIMATE ANALYSIS AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST METHODOLOGY Prior theses from Heidt (2006) and Lemke (2010) used methods similar to ours and to...6 II. DATA AND METHODS .......................................................................................7 A...9 D. ANALYSIS AND FORECAST METHODS .........................................10 1. Predictand Selection

Visualizing complex hydrodynamic features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempf, Jill L.; Marshall, Robert E.; Yen, Chieh-Cheng

1990-08-01

The Lake Erie Forecasting System is a cooperative project by university, private and governmental institutions to provide continuous forecasting of three-dimensional structure within the lake. The forecasts will include water velocity and temperature distributions throughout the body of water, as well as water level and wind-wave distributions at the lake's surface. Many hydrodynamic features can be extracted from this data, including coastal jets, large-scale thermocline motion and zones of upwelling and downwelling. A visualization system is being developed that will aid in understanding these features and their interactions. Because of the wide variety of features, they cannot all be adequately represented by a single rendering technique. Particle tracing, surface rendering, and volumetric techniques are all necessary. This visualization effortis aimed towards creating a system that will provide meaningful forecasts for those using the lake for recreational and commercial purposes. For example, the fishing industry needs to know about large-scale thermocline motion in order to find the best fishing areas and power plants need to know water intAke temperatures. The visualization system must convey this information in a manner that is easily understood by these users. Scientists must also be able to use this system to verify their hydrodynamic simulation. The focus of the system, therefore, is to provide the information to serve these diverse interests, without overwhelming any single user with unnecessary data.

An integrated sea monitoring system based on a X-band wave radar to support the removal activities of the Costa Concordia wreck.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gozzini, Bernardo; Serafino, Francesco; Lugni, Claudio; Antonini, Andrea; Costanza, Letizia; Orlandi, Andrea; Arturi, Daniele; Ludeno, Giovanni; Natale, Antonio; Soldovieri, Francesco; Ortolani, Alberto; Brandini, Carlo

2013-04-01

The planning and management of different types of operations at sea requires a number of sea state data as much in real-time as possible, for rapid and effective response to different situations. This need is particularly strong in emergency management practices, in accidents due to man-made or natural causes, that require the planning of civil protection activities (such as search-and-rescue, cleaning of pollution, ship recovery), transport planning etc. The use of X-band radar technology nowadays provides great advantages over traditional in-situ and satellite-based techniques for sea state measuring, to update information on waves and currents over a sea area with high spatial and temporal resolution. Other advantages include a good spatial coverage around the area of interest, the flexibility of use, the capacity to provide, on-demand and when necessary, complementary information (possible oil spills detection, integration with VTS, etc.). X-band coastal radars (so-called "wave-radars") are widely used in the monitoring of large marine areas, in integration with in-situ measurements, satellites and other radar types (HF), as a key element of the observational component of present operational oceanography systems. Outside of these systems, the use of this technology to support emergency management practices is very promising for both the quality and quantity of available parameters, and for an easy integration with all other available monitoring and forecasting tools. A case study particularly relevant is offered by the presence of the Costa Concordia ship near the Giglio Island. The management of this disaster has requested at an early stage a large number of data to support the monitoring of marine environment around the ship, e.g. to optimally plan water samples. In the next and present phase, to support the highly risky and costly activities linked to the wreck removal, which are extremely sea-state dependent, the installation of a wave-radar allows to detect, in real-time and with high revisiting time, waves and currents in the area surrounding the wreck. In addition wave spectra measures allow to check the reliability of present wave forecasting models, which are unlikely to represent the local and coastal scales of interest and therefore require a continuous process of verification, calibration and quality control. Similar considerations can be made for the reconstruction of marine currents at a local scale, whose uncertainty is inherently greater. The integration of X-band radar data with in-situ data has allowed to optimally calibrate the data itself (especially for what concerns the significant wave height) and to provide a local scale observation system which proved to be fundamental to support the work of continuous sea state monitoring and forecasting around the area of the disaster. The observation system at Giglio is a kind of laboratory unique in its kind, to test the reliability of the wave and hydrodynamic models at a local scale, to assess our present ability to use X-band radars for emergency management activities, and to evaluate the response capacity of such practices to the actual needs of involved stakeholders and private users.

Tracking, sensing and predicting flood wave propagation using nomadic satellite communication systems and hydrodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hostache, R.; Matgen, P.; Giustarini, L.; Tailliez, C.; Iffly, J.-F.

2011-11-01

The main objective of this study is to contribute to the development and the improvement of flood forecasting systems. Since hydrometric stations are often poorly distributed for monitoring the propagation of extreme flood waves, the study aims at evaluating the hydrometric value of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Integrated with satellite telecommunication systems, drifting or anchored floaters equipped with navigation systems such as GPS and Galileo, enable the quasi-continuous measurement and near real-time transmission of water level and flow velocity data, from virtually any point in the world. The presented study investigates the effect of assimilating GNSS-derived water level and flow velocity measurements into hydraulic models in order to reduce the associated predictive uncertainty.

Development of a Probabilistic Decision-Support Model to Forecast Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, K.; Safak, I.; Brenner, O.; Lentz, E. E.; Hapke, C. J.

2016-02-01

Site-specific forecasts of coastal change are a valuable management tool in preparing for and assessing storm-driven impacts in coastal areas. More specifically, understanding the likelihood of storm impacts, recovery following events, and the alongshore variability of both is central in evaluating vulnerability and resiliency of barrier islands. We introduce a probabilistic modeling framework that integrates hydrodynamic, anthropogenic, and morphologic components of the barrier system to evaluate coastal change at Fire Island, New York. The model is structured on a Bayesian network (BN), which utilizes observations to learn statistical relationships between system variables. In addition to predictive ability, probabilistic models convey the level of confidence associated with a prediction, an important consideration for coastal managers. Our model predicts the likelihood of morphologic change on the upper beach based on several decades of beach monitoring data. A coupled hydrodynamic BN combines probabilistic and deterministic modeling approaches; by querying nearly two decades of nested-grid wave simulations that account for both distant swells and local seas, we produce scenarios of event and seasonal wave climates. The wave scenarios of total water level - a sum of run up, surge and tide - and anthropogenic modification are the primary drivers of morphologic change in our model structure. Preliminary results show the hydrodynamic BN is able to reproduce time series of total water levels, a critical validation process before generating scenarios, and forecasts of geomorphic change over three month intervals are up to 70% accurate. Predictions of storm-induced change and recovery are linked to evaluate zones of persistent vulnerability or resilience and will help managers target restoration efforts, identify areas most vulnerable to habitat degradation, and highlight resilient zones that may best support relocation of critical infrastructure.

Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

2018-05-01

This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in the lower troposphere. Outside Africa over the Atlantic or in Europe the effect of the 2-way nesting becomes visible after some days of simulation. The changes in error measures are not as clear as in the nesting region itself but still improvements for some variables at different altitudes are evident, most likely due to a better representation of African easterly waves and Rossby waves. This work shows the importance of the West African region for global weather forecasts and the potential of convective permitting modelling in this region to improve the forecasts even far away from Africa in the future.

The 14th international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the 5th coastal hazards symposium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Alves, Jose Henrique; Greenslade, Diana; Horsburgh, Kevin; Swail, Val

2017-04-01

Following the 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 5th Coastal Hazards Symposium in November 2014 in Key West, Florida, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here, we give a brief overview of the 16 papers published in this topical collection as well as an overview of the widening scope of the conference in recent years. A general trend in the field has been towards closer integration between the wave and ocean modelling communities. This is also seen in this topical collection, with several papers exploring the interaction between surface waves and mixed layer dynamics and sea ice.

A Proposal of Monitoring and Forecasting Method for Crustal Activity in and around Japan with 3-dimensional Heterogeneous Medium Using a Large-scale High-fidelity Finite Element Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, T.; Agata, R.; Ichimura, T.; Fujita, K.; Yamaguchi, T.; Takahashi, N.

2017-12-01

Recently, we can obtain continuous dense surface deformation data on land and partly on the sea floor, the obtained data are not fully utilized for monitoring and forecasting of crustal activity, such as spatio-temporal variation in slip velocity on the plate interface including earthquakes, seismic wave propagation, and crustal deformation. For construct a system for monitoring and forecasting, it is necessary to develop a physics-based data analysis system including (1) a structural model with the 3D geometry of the plate inter-face and the material property such as elasticity and viscosity, (2) calculation code for crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation using (1), (3) inverse analysis or data assimilation code both for structure and fault slip using (1) & (2). To accomplish this, it is at least necessary to develop highly reliable large-scale simulation code to calculate crustal deformation and seismic wave propagation for 3D heterogeneous structure. Unstructured FE non-linear seismic wave simulation code has been developed. This achieved physics-based urban earthquake simulation enhanced by 1.08 T DOF x 6.6 K time-step. A high fidelity FEM simulation code with mesh generator has also been developed to calculate crustal deformation in and around Japan with complicated surface topography and subducting plate geometry for 1km mesh. This code has been improved the code for crustal deformation and achieved 2.05 T-DOF with 45m resolution on the plate interface. This high-resolution analysis enables computation of change of stress acting on the plate interface. Further, for inverse analyses, waveform inversion code for modeling 3D crustal structure has been developed, and the high-fidelity FEM code has been improved to apply an adjoint method for estimating fault slip and asthenosphere viscosity. Hence, we have large-scale simulation and analysis tools for monitoring. We are developing the methods for forecasting the slip velocity variation on the plate interface. Although the prototype is for elastic half space model, we are applying it for 3D heterogeneous structure with the high-fidelity FE model. Furthermore, large-scale simulation codes for monitoring are being implemented on the GPU clusters and analysis tools are developing to include other functions such as examination in model errors.

Sea level forecasts for Pacific Islands based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Widlansky, M. J.; Marra, J. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding at tropical Pacific Islands often occurs when positive sea level anomalies coincide with high tides. To help mitigate this risk, a forecast tool for daily-averaged sea level anomalies is developed that can be added to predicted tides at tropical Pacific Island sites. The forecast takes advantage of the observed westward propagation that sea level anomalies exhibit over a range of time scales. The daily near-real time altimetry gridded data from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) is used to specify upstream sea level at each site, with lead times computed based on mode-one baroclinic Rossby wave speeds. To validate the forecast, hindcasts are compared to tide gauge and nearby AVISO gridded time series. The forecast skills exceed persistence at most stations out to a month or more lead time. The skill is highest at stations where eddy variability is relatively weak. The impacts on the forecasts due to varying propagation speed, decay time, and smoothing of the AVISO data are examined. In addition, the inclusion of forecast winds in a forced wave equation is compared to the freely propagating results. Case studies are presented for seasonally high tide events throughout the Pacific Island region.

UK Environmental Prediction - integration and evaluation at the convective scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallmann, Joachim; Lewis, Huw; Castillo, Juan Manuel; Pearson, David; Harris, Chris; Saulter, Andy; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor

2016-04-01

Traditionally, the simulation of regional ocean, wave and atmosphere components of the Earth System have been considered separately, with some information on other components provided by means of boundary or forcing conditions. More recently, the potential value of a more integrated approach, as required for global climate and Earth System prediction, for regional short-term applications has begun to gain increasing research effort. In the UK, this activity is motivated by an understanding that accurate prediction and warning of the impacts of severe weather requires an integrated approach to forecasting. The substantial impacts on individuals, businesses and infrastructure of such events indicate a pressing need to understand better the value that might be delivered through more integrated environmental prediction. To address this need, the Met Office, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and NERC National Oceanography Centre have begun to develop the foundations of a coupled high resolution probabilistic forecast system for the UK at km-scale. This links together existing model components of the atmosphere, coastal ocean, land surface and hydrology. Our initial focus has been on a 2-year Prototype project to demonstrate the UK coupled prediction concept in research mode. This presentation will provide an update on UK environmental prediction activities. We will present the results from the initial implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system, including a new eddy-permitting resolution ocean component, and discuss progress and initial results from further development to integrate wave interactions in this relatively high resolution system. We will discuss future directions and opportunities for collaboration in environmental prediction, and the challenges to realise the potential of integrated regional coupled forecasting for improving predictions and applications.

Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

PubMed Central

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.; Dingwell, Donald B.

2015-01-01

Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power. PMID:26307196

Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting.

PubMed

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F; Main, Ian G; Dingwell, Donald B

2015-08-26

Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power.

Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.; Dingwell, Donald B.

2015-08-01

Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power.

Ocean rogue waves and their phase space dynamics in the limit of a linear interference model.

PubMed

Birkholz, Simon; Brée, Carsten; Veselić, Ivan; Demircan, Ayhan; Steinmeyer, Günter

2016-10-12

We reanalyse the probability for formation of extreme waves using the simple model of linear interference of a finite number of elementary waves with fixed amplitude and random phase fluctuations. Under these model assumptions no rogue waves appear when less than 10 elementary waves interfere with each other. Above this threshold rogue wave formation becomes increasingly likely, with appearance frequencies that may even exceed long-term observations by an order of magnitude. For estimation of the effective number of interfering waves, we suggest the Grassberger-Procaccia dimensional analysis of individual time series. For the ocean system, it is further shown that the resulting phase space dimension may vary, such that the threshold for rogue wave formation is not always reached. Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations. In particular, extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability.

Ocean rogue waves and their phase space dynamics in the limit of a linear interference model

PubMed Central

Birkholz, Simon; Brée, Carsten; Veselić, Ivan; Demircan, Ayhan; Steinmeyer, Günter

2016-01-01

We reanalyse the probability for formation of extreme waves using the simple model of linear interference of a finite number of elementary waves with fixed amplitude and random phase fluctuations. Under these model assumptions no rogue waves appear when less than 10 elementary waves interfere with each other. Above this threshold rogue wave formation becomes increasingly likely, with appearance frequencies that may even exceed long-term observations by an order of magnitude. For estimation of the effective number of interfering waves, we suggest the Grassberger-Procaccia dimensional analysis of individual time series. For the ocean system, it is further shown that the resulting phase space dimension may vary, such that the threshold for rogue wave formation is not always reached. Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations. In particular, extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability. PMID:27731411

The U.S. East Coast Meteotsunami of June 13, 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Kim, Y.; Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Walker, K.

2013-12-01

NOAA's two Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) provide advance notification to coastal communities concerning tsunami hazards. While the focus is primarily on seismic sources, the U.S. East Coast event of June 13, 2013 indicates the importance of understanding and forecasting atmospherically-driven tsunamis, or meteotsunamis, as well. Here we describe an approach which explains the generation of this event by atmospheric processes, and suggests that the causative forces can be monitored and used to forecast meteotsunami occurrence. The U.S. East Coast tsunami of June 13, 2013 was well recorded at tide gauges from North Carolina to Massachusetts as well as at Bermuda and Puerto Rico. It also triggered DART 44402, just east of the Atlantic shelf break at 39.4N. As there was no seismic energy release associated with the tsunami and an eastward propagating major weather system crossed the Atlantic coast just before the tsunami, the focus turned to atmospheric forcing. Tsunami forecast models used at the two U.S. TWCs were modified to introduce moving atmospheric pressure distributions as sources. In a simple case, a north-south oriented line air pressure jump of width 50 km and pressure of 4 mb at sea level was moved eastward at 20 m/s. The speed matched both the storm speed at the coast and the long wave speed for 40 m deep water, thus allowing for resonant coupling of atmosphere to ocean in the shelf region (Proudman Resonance). Considering the simplicity of the source, a reasonable comparison between the modeled and observed tsunami was obtained with regards to arrival time and height. The proposed source also offers an explanation of the later wave arrivals at US tide gauges. These typically lagged the arrival at Bermuda - a location much further east. This pattern can be explained within the context of Proudman resonance if the waves arriving at coastal stations originated at the shelf break as reflected waves. Model animations of wave dynamics corroborate this phenomenon. The contribution of edge waves generated as the system moves over the coast is also examined. Remaining questions include the importance of shelf parameters in setting the wave fetch and the 'Q' of Proudman resonance along the Atlantic coastline. In other words, are some stretches of shelf more conducive to tsunami formation than others? Wind stress was disregarded in the initial modeling work leaving its possible importance as another unanswered question. Operational questions include how to detect likely meteotsunami conditions with real-time meteorological measurements, and what form alerts should take. The minimum necessary temporal resolution of the pressure sensors along with their density and siting needs to be determined. Because details of the source, such as direction and speed of propagation, will likely subject unique sections of coastline to tsunami attack, the detailed analysis of data from sensor arrays to be used in forecasting will be important.

SWIFT Observations in the Arctic Sea State DRI

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

to understand the role of waves and sea state in the Arctic Ocean, such that forecast models are improved and a robust climatology is defined...OBJECTIVES The objectives are to: develop a sea state climatology for the Arctic Ocean, improve wave forecasting in the presence of sea ice, improve...experiment, coordination of remote sensing products, and analysis of climatology . A detailed cruise plan has been written, including a table of the remote

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

2017-12-01

Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

The Effect of the Leeuwin Current on Offshore Surface Gravity Waves in Southwest Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; Cosoli, Simone; Pattiaratchi, Charitha

2017-11-01

The knowledge of regional wave regimes is critical for coastal zone planning, protection, and management. In this study, the influence of the offshore current regime on surface gravity waves on the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) continental shelf was examined. This was achieved by coupling the three dimensional, free surface, terrain-following hydrodynamic Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) and the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-WaveSediment Transport (COAWST) model. Different representative states of the Leeuwin Current (LC), a strong pole-ward flowing boundary current with a persistent eddy field along the SWWA shelf edge were simulated and used to investigate their influence on different large wave events. The coupled wave-current simulations were compared to wave only simulations, which represented scenarios in the absence of a background current field. Results showed that the LC and the eddy field significantly impact SWWA waves. Significant wave heights increased (decreased) when currents were opposing (aligning with) the incoming wave directions. During a fully developed LC system significant wave heights were altered by up to ±25% and wave directions by up to ±20°. The change in wave direction indicates that the LC may modify nearshore wave dynamics and consequently alter sediment patterns. Operational regional wave forecasts and hindcasts may give flawed predictions if wave-current interaction is not properly accounted for.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

2015-04-01

The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: 3. Evaluation by means of case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangold, A.; de Backer, H.; de Paepe, B.; Dewitte, S.; Chiapello, I.; Derimian, Y.; Kacenelenbogen, M.; LéOn, J.-F.; Huneeus, N.; Schulz, M.; Ceburnis, D.; O'Dowd, C.; Flentje, H.; Kinne, S.; Benedetti, A.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Boucher, O.

2011-02-01

A near real-time system for assimilation and forecasts of aerosols, greenhouse and trace gases, extending the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), has been developed in the framework of the Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data (GEMS) project. The GEMS aerosol modeling system is novel as it is the first aerosol model fully coupled to a numerical weather prediction model with data assimilation. A reanalysis of the period 2003-2009 has been carried out with the same system. During its development phase, the aerosol system was first run for the time period January 2003 to December 2004 and included sea salt, desert dust, organic matter, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols. In the analysis, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) total aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm over ocean and land (except over bright surfaces) was assimilated. This work evaluates the performance of the aerosol system by means of case studies. The case studies include (1) the summer heat wave in Europe in August 2003, characterized by forest fire aerosol and conditions of high temperatures and stagnation, favoring photochemistry and secondary aerosol formation, (2) a large Saharan dust event in March 2004, and (3) periods of high and low sea salt aerosol production. During the heat wave period in 2003, the linear correlation coefficients between modeled and observed AOD (550 nm) and between modeled and observed PM2.5 mass concentrations are 0.82 and 0.71, respectively, for all investigated sites together. The AOD is slightly and the PM2.5 mass concentration is clearly overestimated by the aerosol model during this period. The simulated sulfate mass concentration is significantly correlated with observations but is distinctly overestimated. The horizontal and vertical locations of the main features of the aerosol distribution during the Saharan dust outbreak are generally well captured, as well as the timing of the AOD peaks. The aerosol model simulates winter sea salt AOD reasonably well, however, showing a general overestimation. Summer sea salt events show a better agreement. Overall, the assimilation of MODIS AOD data improves the subsequent aerosol predictions when compared with observations, in particular concerning the correlation and AOD peak values. The assimilation is less effective in correcting a positive (PM2.5, sulfate mass concentration, Angström exponent) or negative (desert dust plume AOD) model bias.

A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando

2013-04-01

Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at 110 coastal locations along the French coast. The model, based on the BAJ parameterization of the source terms (Bidlot et al, 2007) was calibrated against ten years of GlobWave altimeter observations (2000-2009) and validated through deep and shallow water buoy observations. The dynamical downscaling method has been performed with the same numerical wave model TOMAWAC used for building ANEMOC-2. Forecast simulations are forced by the 10m wind fields of ARPEGE-CLIMAT (A1B, A2, B1) from 2010 to 2100. The model covers the Atlantic Ocean and uses a spatial resolution along the French and European coast of 10 and 20 km respectively. The results of the model are stored with a time resolution of one hour. References: Benoit M., Marcos F., and F. Becq, (1996). Development of a third generation shallow-water wave model with unstructured spatial meshing. Proc. 25th Int. Conf. on Coastal Eng., (ICCE'1996), Orlando (Florida, USA), pp 465-478. Bidlot J-R, Janssen P. and Adballa S., (2007). A revised formulation of ocean wave dissipation and its model impact, technical memorandum ECMWF n°509. Menendez, M., Mendez, F.J., Izaguirre,C., Camus, P., Espejo, A., Canovas, V., Minguez, R., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2011). Statistical Downscaling of Multivariate Wave Climate Using a Weather Type Approach, 12th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 3rd Coastal Hazard Symposium, Kona (Hawaii).

Automated turbulence forecasts for aviation hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharman, R.; Frehlich, R.; Vandenberghe, F.

2010-09-01

An operational turbulence forecast system for commercial and aviation use is described that is based on an ensemble of turbulence diagnostics derived from standard NWP model outputs. In the U. S. this forecast product is named GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidance) and has been described in detail in Sharman et al., WAF 2006. Since turbulence has many sources in the atmosphere, the ensemble approach of combining diagnostics has been shown to provide greater statistical accuracy than the use of a single diagnostic, or of a subgrid tke parameterization. GTG is sponsored by the FAA, and has undergone rigorous accuracy, safety, and usability evaluations. The GTG product is now hosted on NOAA's Aviation Data Service (ADDS), web site (http://aviationweather.gov/), for access by pilots, air traffic controllers, and dispatchers. During this talk the various turbulence diagnostics, their statistical properties, and their relative performance (based on comparisons to observations) will be presented. Importantly, the model output is ɛ1/3 (where ɛ is the eddy dissipation rate), so is aircraft independent. The diagnostics are individually and collectively calibrated so that their PDFs satisfy the expected log normal distribution of ɛ^1/3. Some of the diagnostics try to take into account the role of gravity waves and inertia-gravity waves in the turbulence generation process. Although the current GTG product is based on the RUC forecast model running over the CONUS, it is transitioning to a WRF based product, and in fact WRF-based versions are currently running operationally over Taiwan and has also been implemented for use by the French Navy in climatological studies. Yet another version has been developed which uses GFS model output to provide global turbulence forecasts. Thus the forecast product is available as a postprocessing program for WRF or other model output and provides 3D maps of turbulence likelihood of any region where NWP model data is available. Although the current GTG has been used mainly for large commercial aircraft, since the output is aircraft independent it could readily be scaled to smaller aircraft such as UAVs. Further, the ensemble technique allows the diagnostics to be used to form probabilistic forecasts, in a manner similar to ensemble NWP forecasts.

Detection and Modeling of a Meteotsunami in Lake Erie During a High Wind Event on May 27, 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, E. J.; Schwab, D. J.; Lombardy, K. A.; LaPlante, R. E.

2012-12-01

On May 27, 2012, a mesoscale convective system moved southeast across the central basin of Lake Erie (the shallowest of the Great Lakes) causing an increase in surface wind speed from 3 to 15 m/s over a few minutes. Although no significant pressure change was observed during this period (+1 mbar), the storm resulted in 3 reported edge waves on the southern shore (5 minutes apart), with wave heights up to 7 feet (2.13 m). Witnesses along the coast reported that the water receded before the waves hit, the only warning of the impending danger. After impact on the southern shore, several individuals were stranded in the water near Cleveland, Ohio. Fortunately, there were no fatalities or serious injury as a result of the edge waves. The storm event yielded two separate but similar squall line events that impacted the southern shore of Lake Erie several hours apart. The first event had little impact on nearshore conditions, however, the second event (moving south-eastward at 21.1 m/s or 41 knots), resulted in 7 ft waves near Cleveland as reported above. The thunderstorms generated three closely packed outflow boundaries that intersected the southern shore of Lake Erie between 1700 and 1730 UTC. The outflow boundaries were followed by a stronger outflow at 1800 UTC. Radial velocities on the WSR-88D in Cleveland, Ohio indicated the winds were stronger in the second outflow boundary. The radar indicated winds between 20.6 and 24.7 m/s (40 and 48 knots) within 240 meters (800 feet) above ground level. In order to better understand the storm event and the cause of the waves that impacted the southern shore, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Lake Erie has been developed using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The model is being developed as part of the Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting (GLCFS), a set of experimental real-time pre-operational hydrodynamic models run at the NOAA Great Lakes Research Laboratory that forecast currents, waves, temperature, and water levels for the Great Lakes and connecting channels. The model is simulated for the storm period on May 27, 2012 to reproduce both the benign and the wave-inducing events using interpolated 6-minute meteorology (wind, pressure, air temperature) from shoreline observations recorded by the National Weather Service. Additional scenarios are carried out to understand the influence of storm speed and direction, wind speed, and pressure change on edge wave production near the southern shore of Lake Erie. Through this study, we hope to fully elucidate the early summer meteotsunami event and build an understanding that will enable the development of a meteotsunami forecasting system for the Great Lakes.

VISIR-I: small vessels - least-time nautical routes using wave forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannarini, Gianandrea; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni; Oddo, Paolo; Iafrati, Alessandro

2016-05-01

A new numerical model for the on-demand computation of optimal ship routes based on sea-state forecasts has been developed. The model, named VISIR (discoVerIng Safe and effIcient Routes) is designed to support decision-makers when planning a marine voyage. The first version of the system, VISIR-I, considers medium and small motor vessels with lengths of up to a few tens of metres and a displacement hull. The model is comprised of three components: a route optimization algorithm, a mechanical model of the ship, and a processor of the environmental fields. The optimization algorithm is based on a graph-search method with time-dependent edge weights. The algorithm is also able to compute a voluntary ship speed reduction. The ship model accounts for calm water and added wave resistance by making use of just the principal particulars of the vessel as input parameters. It also checks the optimal route for parametric roll, pure loss of stability, and surfriding/broaching-to hazard conditions. The processor of the environmental fields employs significant wave height, wave spectrum peak period, and wave direction forecast fields as input. The topological issues of coastal navigation (islands, peninsulas, narrow passages) are addressed. Examples of VISIR-I routes in the Mediterranean Sea are provided. The optimal route may be longer in terms of miles sailed and yet it is faster and safer than the geodetic route between the same departure and arrival locations. Time savings up to 2.7 % and route lengthening up to 3.2 % are found for the case studies analysed. However, there is no upper bound for the magnitude of the changes of such route metrics, which especially in case of extreme sea states can be much greater. Route diversions result from the safety constraints and the fact that the algorithm takes into account the full temporal evolution and spatial variability of the environmental fields.

Application Of Multi-grid Method On China Seas' Temperature Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Xie, Y.; He, Z.; Liu, K.; Han, G.; Ma, J.; Li, D.

2006-12-01

Correlation scales have been used in traditional scheme of 3-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation to estimate the background error covariance for the numerical forecast and reanalysis of atmosphere and ocean for decades. However there are still some drawbacks of this scheme. First, the correlation scales are difficult to be determined accurately. Second, the positive definition of the first-guess error covariance matrix cannot be guaranteed unless the correlation scales are sufficiently small. Xie et al. (2005) indicated that a traditional 3D-Var only corrects some certain wavelength errors and its accuracy depends on the accuracy of the first-guess covariance. And in general, short wavelength error can not be well corrected until long one is corrected and then inaccurate first-guess covariance may mistakenly take long wave error as short wave ones and result in erroneous analysis. For the purpose of quickly minimizing the errors of long and short waves successively, a new 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, called multi-grid data assimilation scheme, is proposed in this paper. By assimilating the shipboard SST and temperature profiles data into a numerical model of China Seas, we applied this scheme in two-month data assimilation and forecast experiment which ended in a favorable result. Comparing with the traditional scheme of 3D-Var, the new scheme has higher forecast accuracy and a lower forecast Root-Mean-Square (RMS) error. Furthermore, this scheme was applied to assimilate the SST of shipboard, AVHRR Pathfinder Version 5.0 SST and temperature profiles at the same time, and a ten-month forecast experiment on sea temperature of China Seas was carried out, in which a successful forecast result was obtained. Particularly, the new scheme is demonstrated a great numerical efficiency in these analyses.

Comparison of numerical hindcasted severe waves with Doppler radar measurements in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce de León, Sonia; Bettencourt, João H.; Dias, Frederic

2017-01-01

Severe sea states in the North Sea present a challenge to wave forecasting systems and a threat to offshore installations such as oil and gas platforms and offshore wind farms. Here, we study the ability of a third-generation spectral wave model to reproduce winter sea states in the North Sea. Measured and modeled time series of integral wave parameters and directional wave spectra are compared for a 12-day period in the winter of 2013-2014 when successive severe storms moved across the North Atlantic and the North Sea. Records were obtained from a Doppler radar and wave buoys. The hindcast was performed with the WAVEWATCH III model (Tolman 2014) with high spectral resolution both in frequency and direction. A good general agreement was obtained for integrated parameters, but discrepancies were found to occur in spectral shapes.

Fitting dynamic models to the Geosat sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. I - A free wave model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Vazquez, Jorge; Perigaud, Claire

1991-01-01

Free, equatorially trapped sinusoidal wave solutions to a linear model on an equatorial beta plane are used to fit the Geosat altimetric sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Kalman filter technique is used to estimate the wave amplitude and phase from the data. The estimation is performed at each time step by combining the model forecast with the observation in an optimal fashion utilizing the respective error covariances. The model error covariance is determined such that the performance of the model forecast is optimized. It is found that the dominant observed features can be described qualitatively by basin-scale Kelvin waves and the first meridional-mode Rossby waves. Quantitatively, however, only 23 percent of the signal variance can be accounted for by this simple model.

Wind wave prediction in shallow water: Theory and applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cavaleri, L.; Rizzoli, P.M.

1981-11-20

A wind wave forecasting model is described, based upon the ray technique, which is specifically designed for shallow water areas. The model explicitly includes wave generation, refraction, and shoaling, while nonlinear dissipative processes (breaking and bottom fricton) are introduced through a suitable parametrization. The forecast is provided at a specified time and target position, in terms of a directional spectrum, from which the one-dimensional spectrum and the significant wave height are derived. The model has been used to hindcast storms both in shallow water (Northern Adriatic Sea) and in deep water conditions (Tyrrhenian Sea). The results have been compared withmore » local measurements, and the rms error for the significant wave height is between 10 and 20%. A major problems has been found in the correct evaluation of the wind field.« less

Environmental Modeling Center / Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Science.gov Websites

Ocean Waves Sea Ice SST Marine Met. Real Time Ocean Forecasting System (RTOFS) Global RTOFS A hybrid time (0Z) out to 144 hours (6 days). Atlantic RTOFS Discontinued A hybrid coordinate, nominally 1/12Â initial time (0Z) out to 144 hours (6 days). Fukushima Tracers NCEP/NWS deployed three-dimensional

TOWARDS OPERATIONAL FORECASTING OF LOWER ATMOSPHERE EFFECTS ON THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND IONOSPHERE: INTEGRATED DYNAMICS IN EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE (IDEA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akmaev, R. A.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Wu, F.; Wang, H.; Juang, H.; Moorthi, S.; Iredell, M.

2009-12-01

The upper atmosphere and ionosphere exhibit variability and phenomena that have been associated with planetary and tidal waves originating in the lower atmosphere. To study and be able to predict the effects of these global-scale dynamical perturbations on the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics system a new coupled model is being developed under the IDEA project. To efficiently cross the infamous R2O “death valley”, from the outset the IDEA project leverages the natural synergy between NOAA’s National Weather Service’s (NWS) Space Weather Prediction and Environmental Modeling Centers and a NOAA-University of Colorado cooperative institute (CIRES). IDEA interactively couples a Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) with ionosphere-plasmasphere and electrodynamics models. WAM is a 150-layer general circulation model (GCM) based on NWS’s operational weather prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) extended from its nominal top altitude of 62 km to over 600 km. It incorporates relevant physical processes including those responsible for the generation of tidal and planetary waves in the troposphere and stratosphere. Long-term simulations reveal realistic seasonal variability of tidal waves with a substantial contribution from non-migrating tidal modes, recently implicated in the observed morphology of the ionosphere. Such phenomena as the thermospheric Midnight Temperature Maximum (MTM), previously associated with the tides, are also realistically simulated for the first time.

Subseasonal prediction of the heat wave of December 2013 in Southern South America by the POAMA and BCC-CPS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Marisol; Alvarez, Mariano S.

2018-01-01

The prediction skill of subseasonal forecast models is evaluated for a strong and long-lasting heat wave occurred in December 2013 over Southern South America. Reforecasts from two models participating in the WCRP/WWRP Subseasonal to Seasonal project, the Bureau of Meteorology POAMA and Beijing Climate Center model BCC-CPS were considered to evaluate their skill in forecasting temperature and circulation anomalies during that event. The POAMA reforecast of 32-member ensemble size, initialized every five days, and BCC-CPS reforecast of 4-member ensemble size for the same date of POAMA plus the previous 4 days were considered. Weekly ensemble-mean forecasts were computed with leadtimes from 2 days up to 24 days every 5 days. Weekly anomalies were calculated for observations from 13th of December to 31st of December 2013. Anomalies for both observations and reforecast were calculated with respect to their own climatology. Results show that the ensemble mean warm anomalies forecasted for week 1 and 2 of the heat wave resulted more similar to the observations for the POAMA model, especially for longer leads. The BCC-CPS performed better for leads shorter than 7 (14) for week 1 (2). For week 3 the BCC-CPS outperformed the POAMA model, particularly at shorter leads, locating more accurately the maxima of the anomalies. In a probabilistic approach, POAMA predicted with a higher chance than BCC-CPS the excess of the upper tercile of temperature anomalies for almost every week and lead time. The forecast of the circulation anomalies over South America could be used to explain the location of the highest temperature anomalies. In summary, for this case, models skill in forecasting surface temperature in a context of a heat wave resulted moderate at lead times longer than the fortnight. However, this study is limited to model-to-model analysis and a multi-model ensemble strategy might increase the skill.

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and Global Environmental Change, Series No. 2, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2004. [2] Pappenberger F. et al., Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), International Journal of Biometeorology 59(3): 311-323, 2015.

Development of the physics driver in NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, H.; Iredell, M.; Tripp, P.

2016-12-01

As a key component of the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), a physics driver is developed in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) in order to facilitate the research, development, and transition to operations of innovations in atmospheric physical parameterizations. The physics driver connects the atmospheric dynamic core, the Common Community Physics Package and the other NEMS-based forecast components (land, ocean, sea ice, wave, and space weather). In current global forecasting system, the physics driver has incorporated major existing physics packages including radiation, surface physics, cloud and microphysics, ozone, and stochastic physics. The physics driver is also applicable to external physics packages. The structure adjustment in NEMS by separating the PHYS trunk is to create an open physics package pool. This open platform is beneficial to the enhancement of U.S. weather forecast ability. In addition, with the universal physics driver, the NEMS can also be used for specific functions by connecting external target physics packages through physics driver. The test of its function is to connect a physics dust-radiation model in the system. Then the modified system can be used for dust storm prediction and forecast. The physics driver is also developed into a standalone form. This is to facilitate the development works on physics packages. The developers can save instant fields of meteorology data and snapshots from the running system , and then used them as offline driving data fields to test the new individual physics modules or small modifications to current modules. This prevents the run of whole system for every test.

Supporting ITM Missions by Observing System Simulation Experiments: Initial Design, Challenges and Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yudin, V. A.; England, S.; Matsuo, T.; Wang, H.; Immel, T. J.; Eastes, R.; Akmaev, R. A.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Liu, H.; Solomon, S. C.; Wu, Q.

2014-12-01

We review and discuss the capability of novel configurations of global community (WACCM-X and TIME-GCM) and planned-operational (WAM) models to support current and forthcoming space-borne missions to monitor the dynamics and composition of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Mesosphere (ITM) system. In the specified meteorology model configuration of WACCM-X, the lower atmosphere is constrained by operational analyses and/or short-term forecasts provided by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) of GMAO/NASA/GSFC. With the terrestrial weather of GEOS-5 and updated model physics, WACCM-X simulations are capable to reproduce the observed signatures of the perturbed wave dynamics and ion-neutral coupling during recent (2006-2013) stratospheric warming events, short-term, annual and year-to-year variability of prevailing flows, planetary waves, tides, and composition. With assimilation of the NWP data in the troposphere and stratosphere the planned-operational configuration of WAM can also recreate the observed features of the ITM day-to-day variability. These "terrestrial-weather" driven whole atmosphere simulations, with day-to-day variable solar and geomagnetic inputs, can provide specification of the background state (first guess) and errors for the inverse algorithms of forthcoming NASA ITM missions, such as ICON and GOLD. With two different viewing geometries (sun-synchronous, for ICON and geostationary for GOLD) these missions promise to perform complimentary global observations of temperature, winds and constituents to constrain the first-principle space weather forecast models. The paper will discuss initial designs of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) in the coupled simulations of TIME-GCM/WACCM-X/GEOS5 and WAM/GIP. As recognized, OSSE represent an excellent learning tool for designing and evaluating observing capabilities of novel sensors. The choice of assimilation schemes, forecast and observational errors will be discussed along with challenges and perspectives to constrain fast-varying dynamics of tides and planetary waves by observations made from sun-synchronous and geostationary space-borne platforms. We will also discuss how correlative space-borne and ground-based observations can evaluate OSSE results.

Modeling influence of tide stages on forecasts of the 2010 Chilean tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uslu, B. U.; Chamberlin, C.; Walsh, D.; Eble, M. C.

2010-12-01

The impact of the 2010 Chilean tsunami is studied using the NOAA high-resolution tsunami forecast model augmented to include modeled tide heights in addition to deep-water tsunami propagation as boundary-condition input. The Chilean tsunami was observed at the Los Angeles tide station at mean low water, Hilo at low, Pago Pago at mid tide and Wake Island near high tide. Because the tsunami arrived at coastal communities at a representative variety of tide stages, 2010 Chile tsunami provides opportunity to study the tsunami impacts at different tide levels to different communities. The current forecast models are computed with a constant tidal stage, and this study evaluates techniques for adding an additional varying predicted tidal component in a forecasting context. Computed wave amplitudes, wave currents and flooding are compared at locations around the Pacific, and the difference in tsunami impact due to tidal stage is studied. This study focuses on how tsunami impacts vary with different tide levels, and helps us understand how the inclusion of tidal components can improve real-time forecast accuracy.

New challenges of the ARISE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

It has been robustly demonstrated that variations in the circulation of the middle atmosphere influence weather and climate throughout the troposphere all the way to the Earth's surface. A key part of the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere occurs through the propagation and breaking of planetary-scale Rossby waves and gravity waves. Limited observation of the middle atmosphere and these waves in particular limits the ability to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The ARISE project combines for the first time international networks with complementary technologies such as infrasound, lidar and airglow. This joint network provided advanced data products that started to be used as benchmarks for weather forecast models. The ARISE network also allows enhanced and detailed monitoring of other extreme events in the Earth system such as erupting volcanoes, magnetic storms, tornadoes and tropical thunderstorms. In order to improve the ability of the network to monitor atmospheric dynamics, ARISE proposes to extend i) the existing network coverage in Africa and the high latitudes, ii) the altitude range in the stratosphere and mesosphere, iii) the observation duration using routine observation modes, and to use complementary existing infrastructures and innovative instrumentations. Data will be collected over the long term to improve weather forecasting to monthly or seasonal timescales, to monitor atmospheric extreme events and climate change. ARISE focuses on the link between models and observations for future assimilation of data by operational weather forecasting models. Among the applications, ARISE2 proposes infrasound remote volcano monitoring to provide notifications to civil aviation.

Observation-Based Dissipation and Input Terms for Spectral Wave Models, with End-User Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

scale influence of the Great barrier reef matrix on wave attenuation, Coral Reefs [published, refereed] Ghantous, M., and A.V. Babanin, 2014: One...Observation-Based Dissipation and Input Terms for Spectral Wave Models...functions, based on advanced understanding of physics of air-sea interactions, wave breaking and swell attenuation, in wave - forecast models. OBJECTIVES The

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

2012-05-01

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mignone, Anthony; Stockdon, H.; Willis, M.; Cannon, J.W.; Thompson, R.

2012-01-01

National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and the large swell event from distant Hurricane Bill on 22 August. The coastal impacts associated with Nor'Ida were due to the combined effects of surge, tide, and wave processes and led to an estimated 5.8 million dollars in damage. While the impacts from Hurricane Bill were not as severe as Nor'Ida, they were mainly associated with wave processes. Thus, this event exemplifies the importance of incorporating waves into the total water level and coastal impact prediction process. These examples set the stage for potential future applications including adaption to the more complex topography along the New England coast.

Reply [to: Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Lau, William K.

2010-01-01

This article is a Reply to a Comment by Scott Braun on a previously published article by O. Reale, K.-M. Lau, and E. Brin: "Atlantic tropical cyclogenetic processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 global data assimilation and forecast system", by Reale, Lau and Brin, hereafter referred to as RA09. RA09 investigated the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (MAMMA). The wave was chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. Results showed: a) very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara; b) a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) in the non-developing case. RA09A suggested that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis, and also indicated that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL Braun (2010) questions those results attributing the wave dissipation to midlatitude air. The core discussion is on a dry filament preceding the wave, on the presence of dust, and on the origin of the air contained in this dry filament. In the 'Reply', higher resolution analyses than the ones used by Braun, taken at almost coincident times with Aqua and Terra passes, are shown, to emphasize how the channel of dry air associated with W1 is indeed rich in dust. Backtrajectories on a higher resolution grid are also performed, leading to results drastically different from Braun (2010), and in particularly showing that there is a clear contribution of Saharan air. Finally, the 'Reply' presents evidence on that analyses at a horizontal resolution of one degree are inadequate to investigate such feature.

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells. PMID:25625407

Evaluating the performance of a climate-driven mortality model during heat waves and cold spells in Europe.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-23

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998-2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1-15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1-15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells.

Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

2011-01-01

In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

A comparison of observed and numerically predicted eddy kinetic energy budgets for a developing extratropical cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dare, P. M.; Smith, P. J.

1983-01-01

The eddy kinetic energy budget is calculated for a 48-hour forecast of an intense occluding winter cyclone associated with a strong well-developed jet stream. The model output consists of the initialized (1200 GMT January 9, 1975) and the 12, 24, 36, and 48 hour forecast fields from the Drexel/NCAR Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) model. The LAMPS forecast compares well with observations for the first 24 hours, but then overdevelops the low-level cyclone while inadequately developing the upper-air wave and jet. Eddy kinetic energy was found to be concentrated in the upper-troposphere with maxima flanking the primary trough. The increases in kinetic energy were found to be due to an excess of the primary source term of kinetic energy content, which is the horizontal flux of eddy kinetic energy over the primary sinks, and the generation and dissipation of eddy kinetic energy.

A global perspective of the limits of prediction skill based on the ECMWF ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagar, Nedjeljka

2016-04-01

In this talk presents a new model of the global forecast error growth applied to the forecast errors simulated by the ensemble prediction system (ENS) of the ECMWF. The proxy for forecast errors is the total spread of the ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts obtained by the decomposition of the wind and geopotential fields in the normal-mode functions. In this way, the ensemble spread can be quantified separately for the balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) modes for every forecast range. Ensemble reliability is defined for the balanced and IG modes comparing the ensemble spread with the control analysis in each scale. The results show that initial uncertainties in the ECMWF ENS are largest in the tropical large-scale modes and their spatial distribution is similar to the distribution of the short-range forecast errors. Initially the ensemble spread grows most in the smallest scales and in the synoptic range of the IG modes but the overall growth is dominated by the increase of spread in balanced modes in synoptic and planetary scales in the midlatitudes. During the forecasts, the distribution of spread in the balanced and IG modes grows towards the climatological spread distribution characteristic of the analyses. The ENS system is found to be somewhat under-dispersive which is associated with the lack of tropical variability, primarily the Kelvin waves. The new model of the forecast error growth has three fitting parameters to parameterize the initial fast growth and a more slow exponential error growth later on. The asymptotic values of forecast errors are independent of the exponential growth rate. It is found that the asymptotic values of the errors due to unbalanced dynamics are around 10 days while the balanced and total errors saturate in 3 to 4 weeks. Reference: Žagar, N., R. Buizza, and J. Tribbia, 2015: A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4423-4444.

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Cardone, V. J.

1981-01-01

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Wave Extremes in the Northeast Atlantic from Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Carrasco, Ana; Saetra, Øyvind

2013-10-01

A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived +240-h forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) from 1999 to 2009. We make three assumptions: First, each forecast is representative of a six-hour interval and collectively the data set is then comparable to a time period of 226 years. Second, the model climate matches the observed distribution, which we confirm by comparing with buoy data. Third, the ensemble members are sufficiently uncorrelated to be considered independent realizations of the model climate. We find anomaly correlations of 0.20, but peak events (>P97) are entirely uncorrelated. By comparing return values from individual members with return values of subsamples of the data set we also find that the estimates follow the same distribution and appear unaffected by correlations in the ensemble. The annual mean and variance over the 11-year archived period exhibit no significant departures from stationarity compared with a recent reforecast, i.e., there is no spurious trend due to model upgrades. EPS yields significantly higher return values than ERA-40 and ERA-Interim and is in good agreement with the high-resolution hindcast NORA10, except in the lee of unresolved islands where EPS overestimates and in enclosed seas where it is biased low. Confidence intervals are half the width of those found for ERA-Interim due to the magnitude of the data set.

NOAA Propagation Database Value in Tsunami Forecast Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eble, M. C.; Wright, L. M.

2016-02-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) has developed a tsunami forecasting capability that combines a graphical user interface with data ingestion and numerical models to produce estimates of tsunami wave arrival times, amplitudes, current or water flow rates, and flooding at specific coastal communities. The capability integrates several key components: deep-ocean observations of tsunamis in real-time, a basin-wide pre-computed propagation database of water level and flow velocities based on potential pre-defined seismic unit sources, an inversion or fitting algorithm to refine the tsunami source based on the observations during an event, and tsunami forecast models. As tsunami waves propagate across the ocean, observations from the deep ocean are automatically ingested into the application in real-time to better define the source of the tsunami itself. Since passage of tsunami waves over a deep ocean reporting site is not immediate, we explore the value of the NOAA propagation database in providing placeholder forecasts in advance of deep ocean observations. The propagation database consists of water elevations and flow velocities pre-computed for 50 x 100 [km] unit sources in a continuous series along all known ocean subduction zones. The 2011 Japan Tohoku tsunami is presented as the case study

Forecasting the Human Pathogen Vibrio Parahaemolyticus in Shellfish Tissue within Long Island Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, M. M.; DeRosia-Banick, K.

2016-02-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) is a marine bacterium that occurs naturally in brackish and saltwater environments and may be found in higher concentrations in the warmest months. Vp is a growing threat to producing safe seafood. Consumption of shellfish with high Vp levels can result in gastrointestinal human illnesses. Management response to Vp-related illness outbreaks includes closure of shellfish growing areas. Water quality observations, Vp measurements, and model forecasts are key components to effective management of shellfish growing areas. There is a clear need for observations within the growing area themselves. These areas are offshore of coastal stations and typically inshore of the observing system moorings. New field observations in Long Island Sound (LIS) shellfish growing areas are described and their agreement with high-resolution satellite sea surface temperature data is discussed. A new dataset of Vp concentrations in shellfish tissue is used to determine the LIS-specific Vp vs. temperature relationship following methods in the FDA pre-harvest Vp risk model. This information is combined with output from a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of LIS to make daily forecasts of Vp levels. The influence of river inflows, the role of heat waves, and predictions for future warmer climates are discussed. The key elements of this observational-modeling approach to pathogen forecasting are extendable to other coastal systems.

Characterization of Polar Stratospheric Cloud-Producing Mountain Waves using Thermal Radiance Imagery from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckermann, S. D.; Wu, D. L.; Doyle, J. D.; Burris, J. F.; McGee, T. J.; Hostetler, C. A.; Lawrence, B. N.; Stephens, A.; McCormack, J. P.; Coy, L.; Hogan, T. F.

2006-12-01

The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) acquires pushbroom thermal radiance imagery from the NOAA 15-18 meteorological satellites and NASA's Aqua research satellite. We develop a simplified forward model of its in-orbit radiance acquisition and use it to demonstrate that the swath-scanned Channel 9 radiances (peaking at ~60--90~hPa) can resolve and horizontally image long wavelength gravity waves. To validate these inferences, we isolate and study structure in Channel 9 radiances acquired by AMSU-A instruments over Scandinavia on 14 January 2003. On this day, mountain waves were forecast to form polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) over southern Scandinavia during NASA's second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II) out of Kiruna, Sweden. Based on this forecast guidance, a flight was planned with NASA's DC-8 research aircraft, in which onboard aerosol lidars measured extensive tilted layers of enhanced aerosol backscatter typical of type II PSCs formed in the cooling phases of mountain waves. We show that these PSC-forming mountain waves were imaged in AMSU-A Channel 9 radiance imagery, which shows the waves growing in amplitude from 0600-1200 UTC and then weakening slightly and changing horizontal structure from 1200-2000 UTC. Our forward model results are used to infer 90 hPa peak wave temperature amplitudes of ~6--7~K, values validated by radiosonde data and full three-dimensional in-orbit forward modeling of three-dimensional temperatures, as forecast/hindcast by a suite of global and mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. These results demonstrate that AMSU-A radiances can provide important new hemispheric information on the role of long-wavelength stratospheric mountain waves in PSC formation, denitrification and polar ozone loss.

The Seasat commercial demonstration program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccandless, S. W.; Miller, B. P.; Montgomery, D. R.

1981-01-01

The background and development of the Seasat commercial demonstration program are reviewed and the Seasat spacecraft and its sensors (altimeter, wind field scatterometer, synthetic aperture radar, and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer) are described. The satellite data distribution system allows for selected sets of data, reformatted or tailored to specific needs and geographical regions, to be available to commercial users. Products include sea level and upper atmospheric pressure, sea surface temperature, marine winds, significant wave heights, primary wave direction and period, and spectral wave data. The results of a set of retrospective case studies performed for the commercial demonstration program are described. These are in areas of application such as marine weather and ocean condition forecasting, offshore resource exploration and development, commercial fishing, and marine transportation.

A Method for Oscillation Errors Restriction of SINS Based on Forecasted Time Series.

PubMed

Zhao, Lin; Li, Jiushun; Cheng, Jianhua; Jia, Chun; Wang, Qiufan

2015-07-17

Continuity, real-time, and accuracy are the key technical indexes of evaluating comprehensive performance of a strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS). However, Schuler, Foucault, and Earth periodic oscillation errors significantly cut down the real-time accuracy of SINS. A method for oscillation error restriction of SINS based on forecasted time series is proposed by analyzing the characteristics of periodic oscillation errors. The innovative method gains multiple sets of navigation solutions with different phase delays in virtue of the forecasted time series acquired through the measurement data of the inertial measurement unit (IMU). With the help of curve-fitting based on least square method, the forecasted time series is obtained while distinguishing and removing small angular motion interference in the process of initial alignment. Finally, the periodic oscillation errors are restricted on account of the principle of eliminating the periodic oscillation signal with a half-wave delay by mean value. Simulation and test results show that the method has good performance in restricting the Schuler, Foucault, and Earth oscillation errors of SINS.

A Method for Oscillation Errors Restriction of SINS Based on Forecasted Time Series

PubMed Central

Zhao, Lin; Li, Jiushun; Cheng, Jianhua; Jia, Chun; Wang, Qiufan

2015-01-01

Continuity, real-time, and accuracy are the key technical indexes of evaluating comprehensive performance of a strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS). However, Schuler, Foucault, and Earth periodic oscillation errors significantly cut down the real-time accuracy of SINS. A method for oscillation error restriction of SINS based on forecasted time series is proposed by analyzing the characteristics of periodic oscillation errors. The innovative method gains multiple sets of navigation solutions with different phase delays in virtue of the forecasted time series acquired through the measurement data of the inertial measurement unit (IMU). With the help of curve-fitting based on least square method, the forecasted time series is obtained while distinguishing and removing small angular motion interference in the process of initial alignment. Finally, the periodic oscillation errors are restricted on account of the principle of eliminating the periodic oscillation signal with a half-wave delay by mean value. Simulation and test results show that the method has good performance in restricting the Schuler, Foucault, and Earth oscillation errors of SINS. PMID:26193283

Stochastic Convection Parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teixeira, Joao; Reynolds, Carolyn; Suselj, Kay; Matheou, Georgios

2012-01-01

computational fluid dynamics, radiation, clouds, turbulence, convection, gravity waves, surface interaction, radiation interaction, cloud and aerosol microphysics, complexity (vegetation, biogeochemistry, radiation versus turbulence/convection stochastic approach, non-linearities, Monte Carlo, high resolutions, large-Eddy Simulations, cloud structure, plumes, saturation in tropics, forecasting, parameterizations, stochastic, radiation-clod interaction, hurricane forecasts

Improving the Health Forecasting Alert System for Cold Weather and Heat-Waves In England: A Proof-of-Concept Using Temperature-Mortality Relationships

PubMed Central

Masato, Giacomo; Bone, Angie; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Cavany, Sean; Neal, Robert; Dankers, Rutger; Dacre, Helen; Carmichael, Katie; Murray, Virginia

2015-01-01

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use. PMID:26431427

Improving the Health Forecasting Alert System for Cold Weather and Heat-Waves In England: A Proof-of-Concept Using Temperature-Mortality Relationships.

PubMed

Masato, Giacomo; Bone, Angie; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Cavany, Sean; Neal, Robert; Dankers, Rutger; Dacre, Helen; Carmichael, Katie; Murray, Virginia

2015-01-01

In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Use of forecasting signatures to help distinguish periodicity, randomness, and chaos in ripples and other spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, D.M.

1992-01-01

Forecasting of one-dimensional time series previously has been used to help distinguish periodicity, chaos, and noise. This paper presents two-dimensional generalizations for making such distinctions for spatial patterns. The techniques are evaluated using synthetic spatial patterns and then are applied to a natural example: ripples formed in sand by blowing wind. Tests with the synthetic patterns demonstrate that the forecasting techniques can be applied to two-dimensional spatial patterns, with the same utility and limitations as when applied to one-dimensional time series. One limitation is that some combinations of periodicity and randomness exhibit forecasting signatures that mimic those of chaos. For example, sine waves distorted with correlated phase noise have forecasting errors that increase with forecasting distance, errors that, are minimized using nonlinear models at moderate embedding dimensions, and forecasting properties that differ significantly between the original and surrogates. Ripples formed in sand by flowing air or water typically vary in geometry from one to another, even when formed in a flow that is uniform on a large scale; each ripple modifies the local flow or sand-transport field, thereby influencing the geometry of the next ripple downcurrent. Spatial forecasting was used to evaluate the hypothesis that such a deterministic process - rather than randomness or quasiperiodicity - is responsible for the variation between successive ripples. This hypothesis is supported by a forecasting error that increases with forecasting distance, a greater accuracy of nonlinear relative to linear models, and significant differences between forecasts made with the original ripples and those made with surrogate patterns. Forecasting signatures cannot be used to distinguish ripple geometry from sine waves with correlated phase noise, but this kind of structure can be ruled out by two geometric properties of the ripples: Successive ripples are highly correlated in wavelength, and ripple crests display dislocations such as branchings and mergers. ?? 1992 American Institute of Physics.

Test operation of a real-time tsunami inundation forecast system using actual data observed by S-net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, W.; Yamamoto, N.; Miyoshi, T.; Aoi, S.

2017-12-01

If the tsunami inundation information can be rapidly and stably forecast before the large tsunami attacks, the information would have effectively people realize the impeding danger and necessity of evacuation. Toward that goal, we have developed a prototype system to perform the real-time tsunami inundation forecast for Chiba prefecture, eastern Japan, using off-shore ocean bottom pressure data observed by the seafloor observation network for earthquakes and tsunamis along the Japan Trench (S-net) (Aoi et al., 2015, AGU). Because tsunami inundation simulation requires a large computation cost, we employ a database approach searching the pre-calculated tsunami scenarios that reasonably explain the observed S-net pressure data based on the multi-index method (Yamamoto et al., 2016, EPS). The scenario search is regularly repeated, not triggered by the occurrence of the tsunami event, and the forecast information is generated from the selected scenarios that meet the criterion. Test operation of the prototype system using the actual observation data started in April, 2017 and the performance and behavior of the system during non-tsunami event periods have been examined. It is found that the treatment of the noises affecting the observed data is the main issue to be solved toward the improvement of the system. Even if the observed pressure data are filtered to extract the tsunami signals, the noises in ordinary times or unusually large noises like high ocean waves due to storm affect the comparison between the observed and scenario data. Due to the noises, the tsunami scenarios are selected and the tsunami is forecast although any tsunami event does not actually occur. In most cases, the selected scenarios due to the noises have the fault models in the region along the Kurile or Izu-Bonin Trenches, far from the S-net region, or the fault models below the land. Based on the parallel operation of the forecast system with a different scenario search condition and examination of the fault models, we improve the stability and performance of the forecast system.This work was supported by Council for Science, Technology and Innovation(CSTI), Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP), "Enhancement of societal resiliency against natural disasters"(Funding agency: JST).

An innovative early warning system for floods and operational risks in harbours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smets, Steven; Bolle, Annelies; Mollaert, Justine; Buitrago, Saul; Gruwez, Vincent

2016-04-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are nowadays becoming fairly standard in river flood forecasting or in large scale hydrometeorological predictions. For complex coastal morphodynamic problems or in the vicinity of complex coastal structures, such as harbours, EWS are much less used because they are both technically and computationally still very challenging. To advance beyond the state-of-the-art, the EU FP7 project Risc-KIT (www.risc-kit.eu) is developing prototype EWS which address specifically these topics. This paper describes the prototype EWS which IMDC has developed for the case study site of the harbour of Zeebrugge. The harbour of Zeebrugge is the largest industrial seaport on the coast of Belgium, extending more than 3 km into the sea. Two long breakwaters provide shelter for the inner quays and docks for regular conditions and frequent storms. Extreme storms surges and waves can however still enter the harbour and create risks for the harbour operations and infrastructure. The prediction of the effects of storm surges and waves inside harbours are typically very complex and challenging, due to the need of different types of numerical models for representing all different physical processes. In general, waves inside harbours are a combination of locally wind generated waves and offshore wave penetration at the port entrance. During extreme conditions, the waves could overtop the quays and breakwaters and flood the port facilities. Outside a prediction environment, the conditions inside the harbour could be assessed by superimposing processes. The assessment can be carried out by using a combination of a spectral wave model (i.e. SWAN) for the wind generated waves and a Boussinesq type wave model (i.e. Mike 21 BW) for the wave penetration from offshore. Finally, a 2D hydrodynamic model (i.e. TELEMAC) can be used to simulate the overland flooding inside the port facilities. To reproduce these processes in an EWS environment, an additional challenge is to cope with the limitations of the calculation engines. This is especially true with the Boussinesq model. A model train is proposed that integrates processed based modelling, for wind generated waves, with an intelligent simplification of the Boussinesq model for the wave penetration effects. These wave conditions together with the extreme water levels (including storm surge) can then be used to simulate the overtopping/overflow behaviour for the quays. Finally, the hydrodynamic model TELEMAC is run for the inundation forecast inside the port facilities. The complete model train was integrated into the Deltares Delft FEWS software to showcase the potential for real time operations.

Observations and modelling of a meteotsunami across the English Channel on 23rd June 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, David; Horsburgh, Kevin; Schultz, David; Hughes, Chris

2017-04-01

Meteotsunami are shallow water waves in the tsunami frequency band, which are generated by sub-mesoscale pressure and wind velocity fluctuations. Whilst documented meteotsunami on the north-western European shelf have not been hazardous, around the world they have caused fatalities and significant economic losses. Previous observational studies suggest that across Western Europe strongly convective storms are meteotsunami-generating. We give evidence for a meteotsunami on 23rd June 2016 along the northern coastline of France, following strongly convective storms. This includes 1-minute temporal resolution tide gauge data, in situ pressure and wind velocities, and infrared satellite images. With an estimated wave height of 0.8 m at Boulogne, this meteotsunami is particularly large compared to previous observations in Western Europe. The tsunami travel times have been estimated using the wavefront method, showing that a single, instantaneous source for the waves is highly unlikely. Using the ocean model Telemac2D, idealised models of pressure and wind have been used to simulate the meteotsunami. The model supports that across the English Channel thunderstorms with north-easterly tracks, moving at the shallow water wave speed, can generate wave amplification through Proudman resonance. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to produce numerically simulated thunderstorms, which have been used to force the Telemac2D ocean model with idealised bathymetries. The WRF-Telemac2D model results also support meteotsunami generation by thunderstorms. To the author's knowledge this is the first time a thunderstorm simulation has been used to produce a meteotsunami-like wave, and indicates that non-hydrostatic, convective atmospheric processes are important for meteotsunami generation. This suggests that with combined high resolution observations and modelling, a meteotsunami forecasting system may become possible in Western Europe.

A Pro-active Real-time Forecasting and Decision Support System for Daily Management of Marine Works

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bollen, Mark; Leyssen, Gert; Smets, Steven; De Wachter, Tom

2016-04-01

Marine Works involving turbidity generating activities (eg. dredging, dredge spoil placement) can generate environmental stress in and around a project area in the form of sediment plumes causing light reduction and sedimentation. If these works are situated near sensitive habitats like sea-grass beds, coral reefs or sensitive human activities eg. aquaculture farms or water intakes, or if contaminants are present in the water soil environmental scrutiny is advised. Environmental Regulations can impose limitations to these activities in the form of turbidity thresholds, spill budgets, contaminant levels. Breaching environmental regulations can result in increased monitoring, adaptation of the works planning and production rates and ultimately in a (temporary) stop of activities all of which entail time and cost impacts for a contractor and/or client. Sediment plume behaviour is governed by the dredging process, soil properties and ambient conditions (currents, water depth) and can be modelled. Usually this is done during the preparatory EIA phase of a project, for estimation of environmental impact based on climatic scenarios. An operational forecasting tool is developed to adapt marine work schedules to the real-time circumstances and thus evade exceedance of critical threshold levels at sensitive areas. The forecasting system is based on a Python-based workflow manager with a MySQL database and a Django frontend web tool for user interaction and visualisation of the model results. The core consists of a numerical hydrodynamic model with sediment transport module (Mike21 from DHI). This model is driven by space and time varying wind fields and wave boundary conditions, and turbidity inputs (suspended sediment source terms) based on marine works production rates and soil properties. The resulting threshold analysis allows the operator to indicate potential impact at the sensitive areas and instigate an adaption of the marine work schedule if needed. In order to use this toolbox in real-time situations and facilitate forecasting of impacts of planned dredge works, the following operational online functionalities are implemented: • Automated fetch and preparation of the input data, including 7 day forecast wind and wave fields and real-time measurements, and user defined the turbidity inputs based on scheduled marine works. • Generate automated forecasts and running user configurable scenarios at the same time in parallel. • Export and convert the model results, time series and maps, into a standardized format (netcdf). • Automatic analysis and processing of model results, including the calculation of indicator turbidity values and the exceedance analysis of threshold levels at the different sensitive areas. Data assimilation with the real time on site turbidity measurements is implemented in this threshold analysis. • Pre-programmed generation of animated sediment plumes, specific charts and pdf reports to allow a rapid interpretation of the model results by the operators and facilitating decision making in the operational planning. The performed marine works, resulting from the marine work schedule proposed by the forecasting system, are evaluated by a threshold analysis on the validated turbidity measurements on the sensitive sites. This machine learning loop allows a check of the system in order to evaluate forecast and model uncertainties.

The US Navy Coastal Surge and Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS): Making Forecasts Easier

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-14

produced the best results Peak Water Level Percent Error CD Formulation LAWMA , Amerada Pass Freshwater Canal Locks Calcasieu Pass Sabine Pass...Conclusions Ongoing Work 16 Baseline Simulation Results Peak Water Level Percent Error LAWMA , Amerada Pass Freshwater Canal Locks Calcasieu Pass...Conclusions Ongoing Work 20 Sensitivity Studies Waves Run Water Level – Percent Error of Peak HWM MAPE Lawma , Armeda Pass Freshwater

Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

A Model Simulation of Mountain Waves in the Middle Atmosphere and Its Comparison with Microwave Limb Sounder Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, J. H.; Eckermann, S. D.; Wu, D. L.; Ma, J.; Wang, D. Y.

2003-04-01

Topography-related wintertime stratospheric gravity waves in both Northern and Southern Hemisphere are simulated using the Naval Research Laboratory Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM). The results agree well with the observations from Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Both the MWFM simulation and MLS observations found strong wave activities over the high-latitude mountain ridges of Scandinavia, Central Eurasia, Alaska, southern Greenland in Northern Hemisphere, and Andes, New Zealand, Antarctic rim in Southern Hemisphere. These mountain waves are dominated by wave modes with downward phase progression and horizontal phase velocities opposite to the stratospheric jet-stream. Agreements of minor wave activities are also found at low- to mid-latitudes over Zagros Mountains of Middle East, Colorado Rocky Mountains, Appalachians, and Sierra Madres of Central America. Some differences between the MWFM results and MLS data are explained by different horizontal resolution between the model and observation, and the fact that MLS may also see the non-orographic wave sources, such as mesoscale storms and jet-stream instabilities. The findings from this model-measurement comparison study demonstrate that satellite instruments such as MLS can provide global data needed to characterize mountain wave sources, their inter-annual variations, and to improve gravity wave parameterizations in global climate and forecast models.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Lau, William K.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Brin, Eugenia

2009-01-01

This article investigates the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. A global data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA GEOS-5, is being run to produce a set of high-quality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with denser satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same Authors, the quality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 5-day high resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results show that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) is present in the non-developing case. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) show that aerosol optical thickness is higher in the non-developing case. Altogether, results suggest that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression which has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. These effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions. Global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective.

Spatio-temporal pattern clustering for skill assessment of the Korea Operational Oceanographic System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Park, K.

2016-12-01

In order to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system (KOOS) which has been developed by Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST), a skill assessment (SA) tool has developed and provided multiple skill metrics including not only correlation and error skills by comparing predictions and observation but also pattern clustering with numerical models, satellite, and observation. The KOOS has produced 72 hours forecast information on atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables of wind, pressure, current, tide, wave, temperature, and salinity at every 12 hours per day produced by operating numerical models such as WRF, ROMS, MOM5, WW-III, and SWAN and the SA has conducted to evaluate the forecasts. We have been operationally operated several kinds of numerical models such as WRF, ROMS, MOM5, MOHID, WW-III. Quantitative assessment of operational ocean forecast model is very important to provide accurate ocean forecast information not only to general public but also to support ocean-related problems. In this work, we propose a method of pattern clustering using machine learning method and GIS-based spatial analytics to evaluate spatial distribution of numerical models and spatial observation data such as satellite and HF radar. For the clustering, we use 10 or 15 years-long reanalysis data which was computed by the KOOS, ECMWF, and HYCOM to make best matching clusters which are classified physical meaning with time variation and then we compare it with forecast data. Moreover, for evaluating current, we develop extraction method of dominant flow and apply it to hydrodynamic models and HF radar's sea surface current data. By applying pattern clustering method, it allows more accurate and effective assessment of ocean forecast models' performance by comparing not only specific observation positions which are determined by observation stations but also spatio-temporal distribution of whole model areas. We believe that our proposed method will be very useful to examine and evaluate large amount of numerical modeling data as well as satellite data.

Forecasts of health care utilization related to pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenza in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region, France.

PubMed

Giovannelli, J; Loury, P; Lainé, M; Spaccaferri, G; Hubert, B; Chaud, P

2015-05-01

To describe and evaluate the forecasts of the load that pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenza would have on the general practitioners (GP) and hospital care systems, especially during its peak, in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais (NPDC) region, France. Modelling study. The epidemic curve was modelled using an assumption of normal distribution of cases. The values for the forecast parameters were estimated from a literature review of observed data from the Southern hemisphere and French Overseas Territories, where the pandemic had already occurred. Two scenarios were considered, one realistic, the other pessimistic, enabling the authors to evaluate the 'reasonable worst case'. Forecasts were then assessed by comparing them with observed data in the NPDC region--of 4 million people. The realistic scenarios forecasts estimated 300,000 cases, 1500 hospitalizations, 225 intensive care units (ICU) admissions for the pandemic wave; 115 hospital beds and 45 ICU beds would be required per day during the peak. The pessimistic scenario's forecasts were 2-3 times higher than the realistic scenario's forecasts. Observed data were: 235,000 cases, 1585 hospitalizations, 58 ICU admissions; and a maximum of 11.6 ICU beds per day. The realistic scenario correctly estimated the temporal distribution of GP and hospitalized cases but overestimated the number of cases admitted to ICU. Obtaining more robust data for parameters estimation--particularly the rate of ICU admission among the population that the authors recommend to use--may provide better forecasts. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The predictability of Iowa's hydroclimate through analog forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, Scott Thomas

Iowa has long been affected by periods characterized by extreme drought and flood. In 2008, Cedar Rapids, Iowa was devastated by a record flood with damages around 3 billion. Several years later, Iowa was affected by severe drought in 2012, causing upwards of 30 billion in damages and losses across the United States. These climatic regimes can quickly transition from one regime to another, as was observed in the June 2013 major floods to the late summer 2013 severe drought across eastern Iowa. Though it is not possible to prevent a natural disaster from occurring, we explore how predictable these events are by using forecast models and analogs. Iowa's climate records are analyzed from 1950 to 2012 to determine if there are specific surface and upper-air pressure patterns linked to climate regimes (i.e., cold/hot and dry/wet conditions for a given month). We found that opposing climate regimes in Iowa have reversed anomalies in certain geographical regions of the northern hemisphere. These defined patterns and waves suggested to us that it could be possible to forecast extreme temperature and precipitation periods over Iowa if given a skillful forecast system. We examined the CMC, COLA, and GFDL models within the National Multi-Model Ensemble suite to create analog forecasts based on either surface or upper-air pressure forecasts. The verification results show that some analogs have predictability skill at the 0.5-month lead time exceeding random chance, but our overall confidence in the analog forecasts is not high enough to allow us to issue statewide categorical temperature and precipitation climate forecasts.

EM Earthquake Precursor Detection Associated with Fluid Injection for Hydraulic Fracturing and Tectonic Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Kenneth B., II

2015-04-01

Many attempts have been made to determine an earthquake forecasting method and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but only two seemed to take shape with the most interesting one requiring a magnetometer of a unique design. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, results have had wide variability and problems still reside with what exactly is forecastable and the investigative direction of a true precursor. After a number of custom rock experiments, the two hypotheses were thoroughly tested to correlate the EM wave model. The first hypothesis involved sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio wave generation. The second hypothesis resulted best with highly reproducible data, radio wave generation and detection, and worked numerous times with each laboratory test administered. In addition, internally introduced force on a small scale stressed a number of select rock types to emit radio waves well before catastrophic failure, and failure always went to completion. Comparatively, at a larger scale, highly detailed studies were procured to establish legitimate wave guides from potential hypocenters to epicenters and map the results, accordingly. Field testing in Southern California from 2006 to 2011 and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013 was conducted for detecting similar, laboratory generated, radio wave sources. At the Southern California field sites, signals were detected in numerous directions with varying amplitudes; therefore, a reactive approach was investigated in hopes of detecting possible aftershocks from large, tectonically related M5.0+ earthquakes. At the Timpson, Texas field sites, a proactive detection approach was taken, due to the heavy presence of hydraulic fracturing activity for regional hydrocarbon extraction, which appeared to be causing several rare M4.0+ earthquakes. As a result, detailed Southern California and Timpson, Texas field studies led to the improved design of two newer, prototype antennae and the first ever earthquake epicenter map. With more antennae and continuous monitoring, more fracture cycles can be established well ahead of the next earthquake. In addition, field data could be ascertained longer by the proper authorities and lead to significantly improved earthquake forecasting. The EM precursor determined by this method appears to surpass all prior precursor claims, and the general public may finally receive long overdue forecasting.

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

At the same time, the PIs participate in Australian efforts of developing wave-ocean- ice coupled models for Antarctica . Specific new physics modules...Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling Alexander V. Babanin Swinburne University of Technology, PO Box...operational forecast. Altimeter climatology and the wave models will be used to study the current and future wind/wave and ice trends. APPROACH

Spectral wave conditions in the Colombian Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portilla, Jesús; Caicedo, Ana Lucía; Padilla-Hernández, Roberto; Cavaleri, Luigi

2015-08-01

A comprehensive characterization of the wave conditions in the Colombian Pacific based on wave spectra is presented. The spectral approach offers a detailed description of the different wave regimes, their associated meteorological conditions and their variation in time and geographical space. To this end, two complementary data sources are used, the first is representative for the near-shore zone and comes from observations of the local monitoring network. The second comes from numerical wave model results that cover the open ocean. The measured data used are the first systematically collected spectral wave data in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Modelled spectra correspond to the ERA-Interim database of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts that spans 35 years. An indicator for statistical analysis of the wave spectra has been introduced which basically consists of the occurrence probability of spectral partitions. This indicator has proved to be skilful for the task of defining spectral wave systems of both model and, the more challenging, measured spectra. Following the spectral approach and using this new indicator, six main wave regimes are found in the study area. Two of these systems have well defined swell characteristics that are originated outside the study area in the northern and southern hemispheres. Other three wave systems are to a certain extent associated to the local winds, and in general may be classified as old wind-seas. These are found to flow northeastwards, westwards, and southwards. The sixth system is composed of locally generated wind waves of relatively low magnitude that propagate in several directions. The time variability of these wave systems is highly dependent on the boreal and austral winter storms and on the tropical conditions, in such a way that the wave energy propagation to the region is rather constant along the year, but their origin and characteristics vary significantly.

Analysis of Wind and Sea State in SAR data of Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoja, D.; Schulz-Stellenfleth, J.; Lehner, S.; Horstmann, J.

2003-04-01

Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is still the only instrument providing directional ocean wave and in addition surface wind information on a global and continuous basis. Operating in ASAR wave mode ENVISAT, launched in 2002, provides 10 km x 5 km SAR images every 100 km along the orbit. These SAR data continue and expand the SAR era of the European Remote Sensing satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2, which have acquired similar SAR data since 1991 on a global basis. To not only use the official ERS SAR wave mode product, which consists only of the SAR image power spectrum, but also the full SAR image information a subset of 27 days globally distributed ERS-2 SAR raw data were processed to single look complex SAR imagettes using the BSAR processor developed at the German Aerospace Center. These data have the same format as the official ESA product for ENVISAT ASAR wave mode data. This subset of 34,000 ERS-2 SAR imagettes was used to develop and validate algorithms for wind and wave retrieval, which are also applicable to ENVISAT ASAR wave mode data. The time frame of the dataset covers several tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean of which hurricane Fran has been investigated in detail together with additional data available from scatterometers, buoys and weather centers. Hurricane Fran was active from August 23 to September 8, 1996. During this time, hurricane Fran developed near the African coast and progressed over the North Atlantic Ocean. Landfall occurred on September 5, 1996 at the coast of North Carolina, USA. Fran was part of a whole series of tropical cyclones travelling about the same course in a short time. The wind is extracted from SAR imagery and compared to results of the numerical model output provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and co-located ERS-2 scatterometer measurements. The Swell and wind sea systems generated by the tropical cyclones are measured using SAR cross spectra and a newly developed partitioning technique. For each component wave system (partition) spectral parameters like wavelength and wave propagation direction are calculated and compared to numerical model output provided by ECMWF. The progression of the tropical cyclones is presented and it is described, how the hurricanes are portrayed in the SAR data. The response of waves to fast turning winds is analyzed. Conclusions are drawn about the wave model forecast in hurricane situations using satellite wave mode data. Keywords: Hurricanes, SAR, ocean winds, ocean waves, wind sea and swell

Potential impact of remote sensing data on sea-state analysis and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardone, V. J.

1983-01-01

The severe North Atlantic storm which damaged the ocean liner Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) was studied to assess the impact of remotely sensed marine surface wind data obtained by SEASAT-A, on sea state specifications and forecasts. Alternate representations of the surface wind field in the QE2 storm were produced from the SEASAT enhanced data base, and from operational analyses based upon conventional data. The wind fields were used to drive a high resolution spectral ocean surface wave prediction model. Results show that sea state analyses would have been vastly improved during the period of storm formation and explosive development had remote sensing wind data been available in real time. A modest improvement in operational 12 to 24 hour wave forecasts would have followed automatically from the improved initial state specification made possible by the remote sensing data in both numerical and sea state prediction models. Significantly improved 24 to 48 hour wave forecasts require in addition to remote sensing data, refinement in the numerical and physical aspects of weather prediction models.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes During SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Lau, William K.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Brin, Eugenia

2009-01-01

This article investigates the role of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a nondeveloping and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African. Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because they both interact heavily with Saharan air. A glottal data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System. version 5 (GEOS-5), is being run to produce a set of high-9 uality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with additional satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same authors, the duality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 five-day high-resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results indicate that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses, even at great distances from their source over the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole in the vertiieat (warm above, cool below) is present in the nondeveloping case. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spoctroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites shows that aerosol optical thickness, indicative of more dust as opposed to other factors, is higher in the nondeveloping case. Altogether, results suggest that the radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 km can capture the large-scale transport and the tine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression that has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. Thcse effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions, therefore global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold necessary to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective

Determining Heterogeneous Bottom Friction Distributions using a Numerical Wave Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-11

dissipation in this study. For a bathymetry inversion, how- ever, we would expect E to be more concentrated because of Easting Meters the local efTect of...numerical wave model, bottom dissipation , data assimilation 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE...obviously, dissipation of wave energy as waves addition to its use in improving wave forecasting, assimi- propagate) as demonstrated in recent work

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones: Progress, Challenges, and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuyi

2015-04-01

It has long been recognized that air-sea interaction plays an important role in tropical cyclones (TC) intensity change. However, most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are deficient in predicting TC intensity. The extreme high winds, intense rainfall, large ocean waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the surface-exchange parameters for temperature, water vapor, and momentum into untested regimes. Parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in NWP models are often crude and create "manmade" energy source/sink that does not exist, especially in the absence of a fully interactive ocean in the model. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model (e.g., precipitation, water vapor, boundary layer properties). The energy source (heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean) and sink (surface friction and wind-induced upper ocean cooling) are critical to TC intensity. However, observations of air-sea fluxes in TCs are very limited, especially in extreme high wind conditions underneath of the eyewall region. The Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program was designed to better understand the air-sea interaction, especially in high wind conditions, which included laboratory and coupled model experiments and field campaign in 2003-04 hurricane seasons. Significant progress has been made in better understanding of air-sea exchange coefficients up to 30 m/s, i.e., a leveling off in drag coefficient and relatively invariant exchange coefficient of enthalpy with wind speed. More recently, the Impact of Typhoon on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign in 2010 has provided an unprecedented data set to study the air-sea fluxes in TCs and their impact on TC structure and intensity. More than 800 GPS dropsondes and 900 AXBTs/AXCTs as well as drifters, floats, and moorings were deployed in TCs, including Typhoons Fanapi and Malakas, and Supertyphoon Megi with a record peak wind speed of more than 80 m/s. It is found that the air-sea fluxes are quite asymmetric around a storm with complex features representing various air-sea interaction processes in TCs. A unique observation in Typhoon Fanapi is the development of a stable boundary layer in the near-storm cold wake region, which has a direct impact on TC inner core structure and intensity. Despite of the progress, challenges remain. Air-sea momentum exchange in wind speed greater than 30-40 m/s is largely unresolved. Directional wind-wave stress and wave-current stress are difficult to determine from observations. Effects of sea spray on the air-sea fluxes are still not well understood. This talk will provide an overview on progress made in recent years, challenges we are facing, and ways forward. An integrated coupled observational and atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system is urgently needed, in which coupled model development and targeted observations from field campaign and lab measurements together form the core of the research and prediction system. Another important aspect is that fully coupled models provide explicit, integrated impact forecasts of wind, rain, waves, ocean currents and surges in TCs and winter storms, which are missing in most current NWP models. It requires a new strategy for model development, evaluation, and verification. Ensemble forecasts using high-resolution coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models can provide probabilistic forecasts and quantitative uncertainty estimates, which also allow us to explore new methodologies to verify probabilistic impact forecasts and evaluate model physics using a stochastic approach. Examples of such approach in TCs including Superstorm Sandy will be presented.

Evidence for Gravity Wave Seeding of Convective Ionospheric Storms Possibly Initiated by Thunderstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, M. C.; Dao, E. V.

2018-05-01

With the increase in solar activity, the Communication/Outage Forecast System satellite decayed on orbit to below the F peak. As such, we can study the development of convective ionospheric storms and, most importantly, study large-scale seeding of the responsible instability. For decades, gravity has been suggested as being responsible for the long wavelengths in the range of 200 to 1,000 km, as are commonly observed using airglow and satellite data. Here we suggest that convective thunderstorms are a likely source of gravity waves and point out that recent theoretical analysis has shown this connection to be quite possible.

Operational forecasting of human-biometeorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannaros, T. M.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Matzarakis, A.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the development of an operational forecasting service focusing on human-biometeorological conditions. The service is based on the coupling of numerical weather prediction models with an advanced human-biometeorological model. Human thermal perception and stress forecasts are issued on a daily basis for Greece, in both point and gridded format. A user-friendly presentation approach is adopted for communicating the forecasts to the public via the worldwide web. The development of the presented service highlights the feasibility of replacing standard meteorological parameters and/or indices used in operational weather forecasting activities for assessing the thermal environment. This is of particular significance for providing effective, human-biometeorology-oriented, warnings for both heat waves and cold outbreaks.

Validation of an ocean shelf model for the prediction of mixed-layer properties in the Mediterranean Sea west of Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onken, Reiner

2017-04-01

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) has been employed to explore the sensitivity of the forecast skill of mixed-layer properties to initial conditions, boundary conditions, and vertical mixing parameterisations. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were provided by the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) or by the MERCATOR global ocean circulation model via one-way nesting; the initial conditions were additionally updated through the assimilation of observations. Nowcasts and forecasts from the weather forecast models COSMO-ME and COSMO-IT, partly melded with observations, served as surface boundary conditions. The vertical mixing was parameterised by the GLS (generic length scale) scheme Umlauf and Burchard (2003) in four different set-ups. All ROMS forecasts were validated against the observations which were taken during the REP14-MED survey to the west of Sardinia. Nesting ROMS in MERCATOR and updating the initial conditions through data assimilation provided the best agreement of the predicted mixed-layer properties with the time series from a moored thermistor chain. Further improvement was obtained by the usage of COSMO-ME atmospheric forcing, which was melded with real observations, and by the application of the k-ω vertical mixing scheme with increased vertical eddy diffusivity. The predicted temporal variability of the mixed-layer temperature was reasonably well correlated with the observed variability, while the modelled variability of the mixed-layer depth exhibited only agreement with the observations near the diurnal frequency peak. For the forecasted horizontal variability, reasonable agreement was found with observations from a ScanFish section, but only for the mesoscale wave number band; the observed sub-mesoscale variability was not reproduced by ROMS.

Conceptual Models of Frontal Cyclones.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eagleman, Joe R.

1981-01-01

This discussion of weather models uses maps to illustrate the differences among three types of frontal cyclones (long wave, short wave, and troughs). Awareness of these cyclones can provide clues to atmospheric conditions which can lead toward accurate weather forecasting. (AM)

Effect of high latitude filtering on NWP skill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, E.; Takacs, L. L.; Hoffman, R. N.

1984-01-01

The high latitude filtering techniques commonly employed in global grid point models to eliminate the high frequency waves associated with the convergence of meridians, can introduce serious distortions which ultimately affect the solution at all latitudes. Experiments completed so far with the 4 deg x 5 deg, 9-level GLAS Fourth Order Model indicate that the high latitude filter currently in operation affects only minimally its forecasting skill. In one case, however, the use of pressure gradient filter significantly improved the forecast. Three day forecasts with the pressure gradient and operational filters are compared as are 5-day forecasts with no filter.

Implementation of remote sensing data for flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, S.; Li, Y.; Pauwels, V. R. N.; Walker, J. P.; Wright, A. J.

2016-12-01

Flooding is one of the most frequent and destructive natural disasters. A timely, accurate and reliable flood forecast can provide vital information for flood preparedness, warning delivery, and emergency response. An operational flood forecasting system typically consists of a hydrologic model, which simulates runoff generation and concentration, and a hydraulic model, which models riverine flood wave routing and floodplain inundation. However, these two types of models suffer from various sources of uncertainties, e.g., forcing data initial conditions, model structure and parameters. To reduce those uncertainties, current forecasting systems are typically calibrated and/or updated using streamflow measurements, and such applications are limited in well-gauged areas. The recent increasing availability of spatially distributed Remote Sensing (RS) data offers new opportunities for flood events investigation and forecast. Based on an Australian case study, this presentation will discuss the use 1) of RS soil moisture data to constrain a hydrologic model, and 2) of RS-derived flood extent and level to constrain a hydraulic model. The hydrological model is based on a semi-distributed system coupled with a two-soil-layer rainfall-runoff model GRKAL and a linear Muskingum routing model. Model calibration was performed using either 1) streamflow data only or 2) both streamflow and RS soil moisture data. The model was then further constrained through the integration of real-time soil moisture data. The hydraulic model is based on LISFLOOD-FP which solves the 2D inertial approximation of the Shallow Water Equations. Streamflow data and RS-derived flood extent and levels were used to apply a multi-objective calibration protocol. The effectiveness with which each data source or combination of data sources constrained the parameter space was quantified and discussed.

A maritime decision support system to assess risk in the presence of environmental uncertainties: the REP10 experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, Raffaele; Cococcioni, Marco; Mourre, Baptiste; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Rixen, Michel

2012-03-01

The aim of this work is to report on an activity carried out during the 2010 Recognized Environmental Picture experiment, held in the Ligurian Sea during summer 2010. The activity was the first at-sea test of the recently developed decision support system (DSS) for operation planning, which had previously been tested in an artificial experiment. The DSS assesses the impact of both environmental conditions (meteorological and oceanographic) and non-environmental conditions (such as traffic density maps) on people and assets involved in the operation and helps in deciding a course of action that allows safer operation. More precisely, the environmental variables (such as wind speed, current speed and significant wave height) taken as input by the DSS are the ones forecasted by a super-ensemble model, which fuses the forecasts provided by multiple forecasting centres. The uncertainties associated with the DSS's inputs (generally due to disagreement between forecasts) are propagated through the DSS's output by using the unscented transform. In this way, the system is not only able to provide a traffic light map ( run/ not run the operation), but also to specify the confidence level associated with each action. This feature was tested on a particular type of operation with underwater gliders: the glider surfacing for data transmission. It is also shown how the availability of a glider path prediction tool provides surfacing options along the predicted path. The applicability to different operations is demonstrated by applying the same system to support diver operations.

Providing oceanographic data and information for Pacific Island communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potemra, James; Maurer, John; Burns, Echelle

2016-04-01

The Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS; http://pacioos.org) is a data-serving group that relies on and promotes data interoperability. The PacIOOS "enterprise" is part of a large, US National effort aimed at providing information about the ocean environment to a wide range of users. These users range from casual beach-goers interested in the latest weather forecast or wave conditions to federal agencies responsible for public safety. In an effort to bridge the gap between the scientific community, who are responsible for making measurements and running forecast models, and the wide-ranging end-users, the data management group in PacIOOS has developed the infrastructure to host and distribute ocean-related data. The efficiency of this system has also allowed the group to build web-based tools to further help users. In this presentation we describe these efforts in more detail.

Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).

PubMed

Pappenberger, F; Jendritzky, G; Staiger, H; Dutra, E; Di Giuseppe, F; Richardson, D S; Cloke, H L

2015-03-01

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single 'deterministic' forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale, which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

Real-Time Ocean Prediction System for the East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrior, H. V.

2016-02-01

The primary objective of the research work reported in this abstract was to develop a Realtime Environmental model for Ocean Dispersion and Impact (as part of an already in-place Decision Support System) for the purpose of radiological safety for the area along Kalpakkam (East Indian) coast. This system involves combining real-time ocean observations with numerical models of ocean processes to provide hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of currents, tides and waves. In this work we present the development of an Automated Coupled Atmospheric - Ocean Model (we call it IIT-CAOM) used to forecast the sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity etc of the Bay of Bengal region under the influence of transient and unsteady atmospheric conditions. This method uses a coupling of Atmosphere and Ocean model. The models used here are the WRF for atmospheric simulations and POM for the ocean counterpart. It has a 3 km X 3 km resolution. This Coupled Model uses GFS (Global Forecast System) Data or FNL (Final Analyses) Data as initial conditions for jump-starting the atmospheric model. The Atmospheric model is run first thus extracting air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The heat flux subroutine computes the net heat flux, using above mentioned parameters data. The net heat flux feeds to the ocean model by simply adding net heat flux subroutine to the ocean model code without changing the model original structure. The online forecast of the IIT-CAOM is currently available in the web. The whole system has been automized and runs without any more manual support. The IIT-CAOM simulations have been carried out for Kalpakkam region, which is located on the East coast of India, about 70 km south of Chennai in Tamilnadu State and a three day forecast of sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, etc have been obtained.

Great landslide events in Italian artificial reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panizzo, A.; de Girolamo, P.; di Risio, M.; Maistri, A.; Petaccia, A.

2005-09-01

The empirical formulations to forecast landslide generated water waves, recently defined in the framework of a research program funded by the Italian National Dam Office RID (Registro Italiano Dighe), are here used to study three real cases of subaerial landslides which fell down italian artificial reservoirs. It is well known that impulse water waves generated by landslides constitute a very dangerous menace for human communities living in the shoreline of the artificial basin or downstream the dam. In 1963, the menace became tragedy, when a 270 millions m3 landslide fell down the Vajont reservoir (Italy), generated an impulse wave which destroyed the city of Longarone, and killed 2000 people. The paper is aimed at presenting the very satisfactorily reproduction of the events at hand by using forecasting formulations.

Mesoscale Variability in SUCCESS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckermann, Stephen D.; Stewart, Richard W. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Analysis of meteorological, chemical and microphysical data from the airborne SUCCESS (SUbsonic aircraft Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study) mission is reported. Careful analysis of the complex DC-8 flight pattern of May 2, 1996 reveals 19 linear flight segments within six main geographical areas, which we have analyzed. Significant mountain wave activity is revealed in the data from the MMS (Meteorology Measurement System) and MTP (Microwave Temperature Profiler) instruments on the DC-8, which resembles previous observations of mountain wave structures near Boulder, Colorado. Strong mountain-wave-induced upwelling downwind of the Rockies is noted. Turbulence is also noted in regions of the mountain wave consistent with overturning near the tropopause. Zonal winds recorded on the ER-2 are shown to be consistent with mountain wave breaking at or near critical levels in the stratosphere, consistent with the strong turbulence reported by the pilot during the ER-2 flight. These observations have been supported with spectral analyses and modeling studies. 'Postcasts' of mountain wave activity on May 2, 1996 using the Naval Research Laboratory Mountain Wave Forecast Model predicts both strong mountain wave activity near the tropopause and strong mountain-wave-induced turbulence in the stratosphere.

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter. Pt. 2; Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menard, Richard; Chang, Lang-Ping

1998-01-01

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Design and Prototype Implementation of non-Triggered Database-driven Real-time Tsunami Forecast System using Multi-index Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, N.; Aoi, S.; Suzuki, W.; Hirata, K.; Takahashi, N.; Kunugi, T.; Nakamura, H.

2016-12-01

We have launched a new project to develop real-time tsunami inundation forecast system for the Pacific coast of Chiba prefecture (Kujukuri-Sotobo region), Japan (Aoi et al., 2015, AGU). In this study, we design a database-driven real-time tsunami forecast system using the multi-index method (Yamamoto et al., 2016, EPS) and implement a prototype system. In the previous study (Yamamoto et al., 2015, AGU), we assumed that the origin-time of tsunami was known before a forecast based on comparing observed and calculated ocean-bottom pressure waveforms stored in the Tsunami Scenario Bank (TSB). As shown in the figure, we assume the scenario origin-times by defining the scenario elapsed timeτp to compare observed and calculated waveforms. In this design, when several appropriate tsunami scenarios were selected by multiple indices (two variance reductions and correlation coefficient), the system could make tsunami forecast using the selected tsunami scenarios for the target coastal region without any triggered information derived from observed seismic and/or tsunami data. In addition, we define the time range Tq shown in the figure for masking perturbations contaminated by ocean-acoustic and seismic waves on the observed pressure records (Saito, 2015, JpGU). Following the proposed design, we implement a prototype system of real-time tsunami inundation forecast system for the exclusive use of the target coastal region using ocean-bottom pressure data from the Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis along the Japan Trench (S-net) (Kanazawa et al., 2012, JpGU; Uehira et al., 2015, IUGG), which is constructed by National Research institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). For the prototype system, we construct a prototype TSB using interplate earthquake fault models located along the Japan Trench (Mw 7.6-9.8), the Sagami Trough (Mw 7.6-8.6), and the Nankai Trough (Mw 7.6-8.6) as well as intraplate earthquake fault models (Mw 7.6-8.6) within the subducting Pacific plate, which could affect the target coastal region. This work was partially supported by the Council for Science, Technology and Innovation (CSTI) through the Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP), titled "Enhancement of societal resiliency against natural disasters" (Funding agency: JST).

Development of a coastal information system for the management of Jeddah coastal waters in Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayerle, R.; Al-Subhi, A.; Fernández Jaramillo, J.; Salama, A.; Bruss, G.; Zubier, K.; Runte, K.; Turki, A.; Hesse, K.; Jastania, H.; Ladwig, N.; Mudarris, M.

2016-04-01

This paper presents results of the development and application of a web-based information system, Jeddah CIS, for assisting decision makers in the management of Jeddah coastal waters, in Saudi Arabia. The system will support coastal planning, management of navigation and tackle pollution due to accidents. The system was developed primarily to nowcast in quasi-real time and to deliver short-term forecasts of water levels, current velocities and waves with high spatial and temporal resolution for the area near Jeddah. Therefor it will hasten response when adverse weather conditions prevail. The Jeddah-CIS integrates sensors transmitting in real time, meteorological, oceanographic and water quality parameters and operational models for flow and waves. It also provides interactive tools using advanced visualization techniques to facilitate dissemination of information. The system relies on open source software and has been designed to facilitate the integration of additional components for enhanced information processing, data evaluation and generation of higher water level, current velocity and wave for the general public. Jeddah-CIS has been operational since 2013. Extensions of the system to speed operations and improving the accuracy of the predictions to the public are currently underway.

An Investigation of Marine Fog Forecast Concepts.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

8217ANTA ANA C FORECASTING WEST COAST MARINE FOG or which the forecast is to be made .) SENT (TYPICALLY IN LATE I S M~IDDLE OR HIGH CLOUD PRESENT’ THERE...following discussions. Much mention will be made in the ensuing discussion of downslope motion and its role in lowering the inversion. Along a large portion...layer below 850 mb. In those cases, reference will be made to the time sequence of vertical profiles of wind at radiosonde stations. 25 Long Wave

On-line applications of numerical models in the Black Sea GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuk, E.; Khaliulin, A.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Nikolaidis, M.; Stylianou, Stavros

2017-09-01

The Black Sea Geographical Information System (GIS) is developed based on cutting edge information technologies, and provides automated data processing and visualization on-line. Mapserver is used as a mapping service; the data are stored in MySQL DBMS; PHP and Python modules are utilized for data access, processing, and exchange. New numerical models can be incorporated in the GIS environment as individual software modules, compiled for a server-based operational system, providing interaction with the GIS. A common interface allows setting the input parameters; then the model performs the calculation of the output data in specifically predefined files and format. The calculation results are then passed to the GIS for visualization. Initially, a test scenario of integration of a numerical model into the GIS was performed, using software, developed to describe a two-dimensional tsunami propagation in variable basin depth, based on a linear long surface wave model which is legitimate for more than 5 m depth. Furthermore, the well established oil spill and trajectory 3-D model MEDSLIK (http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/medslik/) was integrated into the GIS with more advanced GIS functionality and capabilities. MEDSLIK is able to forecast and hind cast the trajectories of oil pollution and floating objects, by using meteo-ocean data and the state of oil spill. The MEDSLIK module interface allows a user to enter all the necessary oil spill parameters, i.e. date and time, rate of spill or spill volume, forecasting time, coordinates, oil spill type, currents, wind, and waves, as well as the specification of the output parameters. The entered data are passed on to MEDSLIK; then the oil pollution characteristics are calculated for pre-defined time steps. The results of the forecast or hind cast are then visualized upon a map.

Coupling of WRF meteorological model to WAM spectral wave model through sea surface roughness at the Balearic Sea: impact on wind and wave forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Soret, A.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

2012-04-01

Meteorological models, like WRF, usually describe the earth surface characteristics by tables that are function of land-use. The roughness length (z0) is an example of such approach. However, over sea z0 is modeled by the Charnock (1955) relation, linking the surface friction velocity u*2 with the roughness length z0 of turbulent air flow, z0 = α-u2* g The Charnock coefficient α may be considered a measure of roughness. For the sea surface, WRF considers a constant roughness α = 0.0185. However, there is evidence that sea surface roughness should depend on wave energy (Donelan, 1982). Spectral wave models like WAM, model the evolution and propagation of wave energy as a function of wind, and include a richer sea surface roughness description. Coupling WRF and WAM is thus a common way to improve the sea surface roughness description of WRF. WAM is a third generation wave model, solving the equation of advection of wave energy subject to input/output terms of: wind growth, energy dissipation and resonant non-linear wave-wave interactions. Third generation models work on the spectral domain. WAM considers the Charnock coefficient α a complex yet known function of the total wind input term, which depends on the wind velocity and on the Charnock coefficient again. This is solved iteratively (Janssen et al., 1990). Coupling of meteorological and wave models through a common Charnock coefficient is operationally done in medium-range met forecasting systems (e.g., at ECMWF) though the impact of coupling for smaller domains is not yet clearly assessed (Warner et al, 2010). It is unclear to which extent the additional effort of coupling improves the local wind and wave fields, in comparison to the effects of other factors, like e.g. a better bathymetry and relief resolution, or a better circulation information which might have its influence on local-scale meteorological processes (local wind jets, local convection, daily marine wind regimes, etc.). This work, within the scope of the 7th EU FP Project FIELD_AC, assesses the impact of coupling WAM and WRF on wind and wave forecasts on the Balearic Sea, and compares it with other possible improvements, like using available high-resolution circulation information from MyOcean GMES core services, or assimilating altimeter data on the Western Mediterranean. This is done in an ordered fashion following statistical design rules, which allows to extract main effects of each of the factors considered (coupling, better circulation information, data assimilation following Lionello et al., 1992) as well as two-factor interactions. Moreover, the statistical significance of these improvements can be tested in the future, though this requires maximum likelihood ratio tests with correlated data. Charnock, H. (1955) Wind stress on a water surface. Quart.J. Row. Met. Soc. 81: 639-640 Donelan, M. (1982) The dependence of aerodynamic drag coefficient on wave parameters. Proc. 1st Int. Conf. on Meteorology and Air-Sea Interactions of teh Coastal Zone. The Hague (Netherlands). AMS. 381-387 Janssen, P.A.E.M., Doyle, J., Bidlot, J., Hansen, B., Isaksen, L. and Viterbo, P. (1990) The impact of oean waves on the atmosphere. Seminars of the ECMWF. Lionello, P., Günther, H., and Janssen P.A.E.M. (1992) Assimilation of altimeter data in a global third-generation wave model. Journal of Geophysical Research 97 (C9): 453-474. Warner, J., Armstrong, B., He, R. and Zambon, J.B. (2010) Development of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System. Ocean Modelling 35: 230-244.

Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Gregory E.; Zack, John W.; Manobianco, John

1994-01-01

NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

A method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Long, Joseph W.; Overbeck, Jacquelyn R.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards compares measurements of beach morphology with storm-induced total water levels to produce forecasts of coastal change for storms impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. The wave-induced water level component (wave setup and swash) is estimated by using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon and others (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. For instance, seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of 1 meter (m) in wave-induced water level elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter and its associated uncertainty essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. A method for calculating spatially and temporally averaged beach slopes is presented here along with a method for determining total uncertainty for each 200-m alongshore section of coastline.

Conference on the Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation, 3rd, University of Sydney, Australia, February 11-15, 1985, Proceedings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, D. G.; McNamara, L. F.

1985-12-01

Various papers on the ionosphere and radio wave propagation are presented. The subjects discussed include: day-to-day variability in foF2 at low latitudes over a solar cycle; semiempirical, low-latitude ionospheric model; remote sensing with the Jindalee skywave radar; photographic approach to irregularities in the 80-100 km region; interference of radio waves in a CW system; study of the F-region characteristics at Waltair; recent developments in the international reference ionosphere; research-oriented ionosonde with directional capabilities; and ionospheric forecasting for specific applications. Also addressed are: experimental and theoretical techniques for the equatorial F region; empirical models of ionospheric electron concentration; the Jindalee ionospheric sounding system; a semiempirical midlatitude ionospheric model; Es structure using an HF radar; short-term variations in f0F2 and IEC; nonreciprocity in Omega propagation observed at middle latitudes; propagation management for no acknowledge HF links; new techniques in ionospheric sounding and studies; and lunar effects in the ionospheric F region.

Imaging and Forecasting of Ionospheric Structures and Their System Impacts

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-12-05

Trapped electrons, Wave/particle interaction, Plasmasphere, Magnetic field, HAARP , Cal/Val 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a...support to the HAARP digisonde (DPS) over the past year, UMLCAR cooperated with AFRL on a campaign during the last week of August 2003. This campaign was...held to develop new diagnostic techniques using the HAARP transmitter, the digisonde, and the all-sky imager as part of a coordinated measurement

Evaluating simplified methods for liquefaction assessment for loss estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kongar, Indranil; Rossetto, Tiziana; Giovinazzi, Sonia

2017-06-01

Currently, some catastrophe models used by the insurance industry account for liquefaction by applying a simple factor to shaking-induced losses. The factor is based only on local liquefaction susceptibility and this highlights the need for a more sophisticated approach to incorporating the effects of liquefaction in loss models. This study compares 11 unique models, each based on one of three principal simplified liquefaction assessment methods: liquefaction potential index (LPI) calculated from shear-wave velocity, the HAZUS software method and a method created specifically to make use of USGS remote sensing data. Data from the September 2010 Darfield and February 2011 Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand are used to compare observed liquefaction occurrences to forecasts from these models using binary classification performance measures. The analysis shows that the best-performing model is the LPI calculated using known shear-wave velocity profiles, which correctly forecasts 78 % of sites where liquefaction occurred and 80 % of sites where liquefaction did not occur, when the threshold is set at 7. However, these data may not always be available to insurers. The next best model is also based on LPI but uses shear-wave velocity profiles simulated from the combination of USGS VS30 data and empirical functions that relate VS30 to average shear-wave velocities at shallower depths. This model correctly forecasts 58 % of sites where liquefaction occurred and 84 % of sites where liquefaction did not occur, when the threshold is set at 4. These scores increase to 78 and 86 %, respectively, when forecasts are based on liquefaction probabilities that are empirically related to the same values of LPI. This model is potentially more useful for insurance since the input data are publicly available. HAZUS models, which are commonly used in studies where no local model is available, perform poorly and incorrectly forecast 87 % of sites where liquefaction occurred, even at optimal thresholds. This paper also considers two models (HAZUS and EPOLLS) for estimation of the scale of liquefaction in terms of permanent ground deformation but finds that both models perform poorly, with correlations between observations and forecasts lower than 0.4 in all cases. Therefore these models potentially provide negligible additional value to loss estimation analysis outside of the regions for which they have been developed.

Mechanistic Drifting Forecast Model for A Small Semi-Submersible Drifter Under Tide-Wind-Wave Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei-Na; Huang, Hui-ming; Wang, Yi-gang; Chen, Da-ke; Zhang, lin

2018-03-01

Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by establishing a mechanistic drifting forecast model based on kinetic analysis. Taking tide-wind-wave into consideration, the forecast model is validated against in situ drifting experiment in the Radial Sand Ridges. Model results show good performance with respect to the measured drifting features, characterized by migrating back and forth twice a day with daily downwind displacements. Trajectory models are used to evaluate the influence of the individual hydrodynamic forcing. The tidal current is the fundamental dynamic condition in the Radial Sand Ridges and has the greatest impact on the drifting distance. However, it loses its leading position in the field of the daily displacement of the used drifter. The simulations reveal that different hydrodynamic forces dominate the daily displacement of the used drifter at different wind scales. The wave-induced mass transport has the greatest influence on the daily displacement at Beaufort wind scale 5-6; while wind drag contributes mostly at wind scale 2-4.

The Black Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center (BS-MFC) in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazov, Atanas; Coppini, Giovanni; Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Gregoire, Marilaure; Staneva, Joanna; Peneva, Elisaveta; Özsoy, Emin; Vandenbulcke, Luc; Storto, Andrea; Lemieux-Dudon, Benedicte; Lovato, Tomas; Masina, Simona; Pinardi, Nadia; Palermo, Francesco; Creti, Sergio; Macchia, Francesca; Lecci, Rita; Behrens, Arno; Marinova, Veselka; Slabakova, Violeta

2017-04-01

The BS-MFC entered the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://marine.copernicus.eu/) in October 2016, providing regular and systematic information about the ocean state in the Black Sea in operational mode. An expert team constitutes the BS-MFC Consortium: the Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IO-BAS, Bulgaria) coordinates the service and the management in collaboration with Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC, Italy), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht - Institute of Coastal Research (HZG, Germany), the University of Liege (ULG, Belgium), the Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski (USOF, Bulgaria) and the Eurasia Earth Sciences Institute - Istanbul Technical University (ITU, Turkey). The system provides a complete data catalogue for the Black Sea ocean variables such as temperature, salinity, sea level, currents, biogeochemistry and waves through a technologically advanced and resilient service, which is fully interconnected with the other Centers in the Copernicus network. The high level BS-MFC architecture is based on 3 Production Units, for Physics, Biogeochemistry and Waves products respectively, a Dissemination/Archiving Unit for the delivery of the products and their archiving/accessibility, a Local Service Desk connected to the CMEMS Service Desk devoted to support all the operational activities, and backup units for all the main service components. Products consist of analysis/hindcast, 10-days forecast and reanalysis, describing the physical (currents, temperature, salinity, sea level, mixed layer depth and bottom temperature), the biogeochemical state and waves. To implement and improve the service, the BS-MFC has detailed an evolution plan, actually under implementation, devoted to establish, assess and improve the systems and their operational functionalities, providing some improvements from the scientific point of view concerning the modeling components (e.g., the fully aligned Physics, Biogeochemistry and Waves systems, the open boundary conditions at the Bosporus, the state-of-the-art core models and increased spatial resolution among the major actions) and high quality products, towards an optimal interface between the Mediterranean and the Black Seas. The contribution will present the main operational and research & development activities at the basis of the systems, given an overview on the future plans for improving the service for the delivery of new products.

Impact of shortwave radiation biases on ocean conditions in the Pacific Northwest waters: Results from the seasonal forecast system J-SCOPE.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siedlecki, S. A.; Nguyen, T. T.; Hermann, A. J.; Bond, N. A.; Ackerman, T. P.; Hinkelman, L. M.

2016-02-01

JISAO Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) is an experimental seasonal forecast system of ocean conditions that is designed to support ecosystem-based management of fisheries in the Northwest Pacific ocean. The forecast system consists of a high resolution ROMS model with biogeochemistry forced by atmospheric and oceanic fields from the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Recent research has focused on the systematic errors in this forcing. In 2013, the predicted CFS shortwave radiation fluxes for summer were higher than the observation fluxes by nearly 100 W/m2. This forecast bias varies interannually and regionally. Hindcast experiments were set up for 2013 to estimate the impact of the shortwave radiation bias on ocean conditions in the Pacific Northwest waters. Results demonstrate that a 20% increase (decrease) in radiation fluxes can cause a warm (cold) bias in sea surface temperature (SST) of up to 1 - 1.5°C on average, and an even higher bias (± 2°C) during the June - August upwelling season. In the response to an increased radiation flux, the increased stratification from the warmer SSTs can reduce mixing and deepen the maximum phytoplankton growth zone, which consequently modifies the oxygen concentration of the water column. The effect of the change in short wave radiation fluxes on the oxygen concentrations of shelf waters is more complicated than the effect on SST. A change of up to 1 to 1.5 ml/l in bottom oxygen concentration occurs in some areas in the region. Two potential mechanisms that govern the response of the shelf water oxygen concentration are explored in this study: reduced mixing and altered chlorophyll distributions. Through the use of an oxygen budget, we can examine the relative importance of each of these mechanisms to the change in radiation.

Future Midwest Heat Waves in WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, M.; Buzan, J. R.; Yoo, J.

2017-12-01

We present heat stress results for the upper Midwest derived from convection resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 Scenario and driven by Community Earth System Model (CESM) boundary conditions as part of the Indiana Climate Change Assessment. Using this modeling system we find widespread and severe increases in moist heat stress metrics in the Midwest by end of century. We detail scaling arguments that suggest our results are robust and not model dependent and describe potential health, welfare, and productivity implications of these results.

Synoptic-scale variability of arctic gravity wave activity during summer and potential impacts on the high latitude middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerrard, Andrew John

Although the role of gravity waves in the global atmospheric circulation is generally understood, discussion of synoptic gravity wave activity, especially pertaining to high latitude summer environments, is lacking in the literature. Tropospherically generated gravity waves greatly contribute to the zonal drag necessary to induce meridional outflow and subsequent upwelling observed in the adiabatically cooled summer mesosphere, ultimately resulting in an environment conducive to mesospheric cloud formation. However, the very gravity wave activity responsible for this induced cooling is also believed to be a major source of variability on mesospheric clouds over shorter time scales, and this topic should be of considerable interest if such clouds are to be used as tracers of the global climate. It is therefore the purpose of this thesis to explore high latitude synoptic gravity wave activity and ultimately seek an understanding of the associated influence on overlaying summer mesospheric clouds. Another goal is to better understand and account for potential variability in high latitude middle and upper atmospheric measurements that can be directly associated with "weather conditions" at lower altitudes. These endeavors are addressed through Rayleigh/aerosol lidar data obtained from the ARCtic LIdar TEchnology (ARCLITE) facility located at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67°N, 310°E), global tropospheric and stratospheric analyses and forecasts, and the Gravity-wave Regional Or Global RAy Tracer (GROGRAT) model. In this study we are able to show that (a) the upper stratospheric gravity wave strength and the brightness of overlaying mesospheric clouds, as measured by representative field proxies, are negatively correlated over time scales of less than a day, (b) such upper stratospheric gravity wave variability is inversely related to mesospheric cloud variability on time scales of ˜1 to 4 hours, (c) gravity wave hindcasts faithfully reproduce experimental lidar observations taken over the month of August 1996, (d) the observed upper stratospheric gravity wave activity is shown to originate from regionalized, non-orographic sources in the troposphere, (e) such gravity wave activity can propagate through the middle atmosphere, potentially impacting overlaying mesospheric clouds, and (f) the forecasting of such upper stratospheric gravity wave activity, and therefore the corresponding mesospheric cloud activity, is feasible. In conclusion, the results herein provide additional evidence of gravity wave influence on mesospheric clouds, a step towards the forecasting of regional gravity wave activity, and ultimately a better understanding of synoptic gravity wave activity at high latitudes.

Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

2018-05-01

A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

SOCIB applications for oceanographic data management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troupin, Charles; Pau Beltran, Joan; Frontera, Biel; Gómara, Sonia; Lora, Sebastian; March, David; Sebastian, Kristian; Tintoré, Joaquin

2015-04-01

The Balearic Islands Coastal Ocean Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB, http://www.socib.es), is a multi-platform Marine Research Infrastructure that provides free, open and quality-controlled data from near-shore to the open sea. To collect the necessary data, the SOCIB system is made up of: a research vessel, a high-frequency (HF) radar system, weather stations, tide gauges, moorings, drifting buoys, ARGO profilers, and gliders (autonomous underwater vehicles). In addition, the system has recently begun incorporating oceanographic sensors attached to sea turtles. High-resolution numerical models provide forecast for hydrodynamics (ROMS) and waves (SAPO). According to SOCIB principles, data have to be: discoverable and accessible; freely available; interoperable, quality-controlled and standardized. The Data Centre (DC) manages the different steps of data processing, including: acquisition using SOCIB platforms (gliders, drifters, HF radar, ...), numerical models (hydrodynamics, waves, ...) or information generated by other data sources, distribution through dedicated web and mobile applications dynamic visualisation. The SOCIB DC constitutes an example of marine information systems within the framework of new coastal ocean observatories. In this work we present some of the applications developed for specific type of users, as well as the technologies used for their implementation: DAPP (Deployments application, http://apps.socib.es/dapp/), a web application to display information related to mobile platform trajectories. LW4NC2 (http://thredds.socib.es/lw4nc2), a web application for multidimensional (grid) data from NetCDF files (numerical models, HF radar). SACOSTA (http://gis.socib.es/sacosta), a viewer for cartographic data such as environmental sensitivity of the coastline. SEABOARD (http://seaboard.socib.es), a tool to disseminate SOCIB real time data to different types of users. Smart-phone apps to access data, platform trajectories and forecasts in real-time. In keeping with the objective of bringing relevant data to all kinds of users in a free and easy way, our future plans include the redesign of the applications to improve the user experience, along with the creation of applications specific to different groups of users, including tourists, sailors, surfers, and others.

Refined Source Terms in Wave Watch 3 with Wave Breaking and Sea Spray Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-05

Farmer at IOS Canada involved a novel scale analysis of breaking waves. This was motivated by the results of the model study of wave breaking onset by...timely development that needs careful examination. 4.11 Highlights of the SPANDEX study SPANDEX, the Spray Production and Dynamics Experiment, is...speed alone. To accomplish this goal, a parallel laboratory study (SPANDEX II) was undertaken to parameterize sea spray flux dependences on breaking

Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.

2012-12-01

The mission of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) is to provide advance tsunami warning and guidance to coastal communities within its Area-of-Responsibility (AOR). Predictive tsunami models, based on the shallow water wave equations, are an important part of the Center's guidance support. An Atlantic-based counterpart to the long-standing forecasting ability in the Pacific known as the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is now developed. The Atlantic forecasting method is based on ATFM version 2 which contains advanced capabilities over the original model; including better handling of the dynamic interactions between grids, inundation over dry land, new forecast model products, an optional non-hydrostatic approach, and the ability to pre-compute larger and more finely gridded regions using parallel computational techniques. The wide and nearly continuous Atlantic shelf region presents a challenge for forecast models. Our solution to this problem has been to develop a single unbroken high resolution sub-mesh (currently 30 arc-seconds), trimmed to the shelf break. This allows for edge wave propagation and for kilometer scale bathymetric feature resolution. Terminating the fine mesh at the 2000m isobath keeps the number of grid points manageable while allowing for a coarse (4 minute) mesh to adequately resolve deep water tsunami dynamics. Higher resolution sub-meshes are then included around coastal forecast points of interest. The WCATWC Atlantic AOR includes eastern U.S. and Canada, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are in very close proximity to well-known tsunami sources. Because travel times are under an hour and response must be immediate, our focus is on pre-computing many tsunami source "scenarios" and compiling those results into a database accessible and calibrated with observations during an event. Seismic source evaluation determines the order of model pre-computation - starting with those sources that carry the highest risk. Model computation zones are confined to regions at risk to save computation time. For example, Atlantic sources have been shown to not propagate into the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, fine grid computations are not performed in the Gulf for Atlantic sources. Outputs from the Atlantic model include forecast marigrams at selected sites, maximum amplitudes, drawdowns, and currents for all coastal points. The maximum amplitude maps will be supplemented with contoured energy flux maps which show more clearly the effects of bathymetric features on tsunami wave propagation. During an event, forecast marigrams will be compared to observations to adjust the model results. The modified forecasts will then be used to set alert levels between coastal breakpoints, and provided to emergency management.

A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

2018-03-01

Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (< 2 days) sensitivity experiments used to highlight the effect of oceanic waves coupling show limited impact on the track, the intensity evolution, and the turbulent surface fluxes of the tropical cyclone. However, it is also shown that using a fully coupled OWA system is essential to obtain consistent sea salt emissions. Spatial and temporal coherence of the sea state with the 10 m wind speed are necessary to produce sea salt aerosol emissions in the right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

The 4th order GISS model of the global atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Bayliss, A.; Storch, J.

1977-01-01

The new GISS 4th order model of the global atmosphere is described. It is based on 4th order quadratically conservative differences with the periodic application of a 16th order filter on the sea level pressure and potential temperature equations, a combination which is approximately enstrophy conserving. Several short range forecasts indicate a significant improvement over 2nd order forecasts with the same resolution (approximately 400 km). However the 4th order forecasts are somewhat inferior to 2nd order forecasts with double resolution. This is probably due to the presence of short waves in the range between 1000 km and 2000 km, which are computed more accurately by the 2nd order high resolution model. An operation count of the schemes indicates that with similar code optimization, the 4th order model will require approximately the same amount of computer time as the 2nd order model with the same resolution. It is estimated that the 4th order model with a grid size of 200 km provides enough accuracy to make horizontal truncation errors negligible over a period of a week for all synoptic scales (waves longer than 1000 km).

Final Report for Project: Impacts of stratification and non-equilibrium winds and waves on hub-height winds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patton, Edward G.

This project used a combination of turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations, single-column modeling (where turbulence is parameterized), and currently available observations to improve, assess, and develop a parameterization of the impact of non-equilibrium wave states and stratification on the buoy-observed winds to establish reliable wind data at the turbine hub-height level. Analysis of turbulence-resolving simulations and observations illuminates the non-linear coupling between the atmosphere and the undulating sea surface. This analysis guides modification of existing boundary layer parameterizations to include wave influences for upward extrapolation of surface-based observations through the turbine layer. Our surface roughness modifications account for the interaction between stratificationmore » and the effects of swell’s amplitude and wavelength as well as swell’s relative motion with respect to the mean wind direction. The single-column version of the open source Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al., 2008) serves as our platform to test our proposed planetary boundary layer parameterization modifications that account for wave effects on marine atmospheric boundary layer flows. WRF has been widely adopted for wind resource analysis and forecasting. The single column version is particularly suitable to development, analysis, and testing of new boundary layer parameterizations. We utilize WRF’s single-column version to verify and validate our proposed modifications to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization (Nakanishi and Niino, 2004). We explore the implications of our modifications for two-way coupling between WRF and wave models (e.g.,Wavewatch III). The newly implemented parameterization accounting for marine atmospheric boundary layer-wave coupling is then tested in three-dimensional WRF simulations at grid sizes near 1 km. These simulations identify the behavior of simulated winds at the wind plant scale. Overall project conclusions include; In the presence of fast-moving swell (significant wave height Hs = 6.4 m, and phase speed cp = 18 ms -1), the atmospheric boundary layer grows more rapidly when waves propagate opposite to the winds compared to when winds and waves are aligned. Pressure drag increases by nearly a factor of 2 relative to the turbulent stress for the extreme case where waves propagate at 180° compared to the pressure gradient forcing. Net wind speed reduces by nearly 15% at hub-height for the 180°-case compared to the 0°-case, and turbulence intensities increase by nearly a factor of 2. These impacts diminish with decreasing wave age; Stratification increases hub height wind speeds and increases the vertical shear of the mean wind across the rotor plane. Fortuitously, this stability-induced enhanced shear does not influence turbulence intensity at hub height, but does increase (decrease) turbulence intensity below (above) hub height. Increased stability also increases the wave-induced pressure stress by ~ 10%; Off the East Coast of the United States during Coupled Boundary Layers Air-Sea Transfer - Low Wind (CBLAST-Low), cases with short fetch include thin stable boundary layers with depths of only a few tens of meters. In the coastal zone, the relationship between the mean wind and the surface fiction velocity (u*(V )) is significantly related to wind direction for weak winds but is not systematically related to the air sea difference of virtual potential temperature, δθv; since waves generally propagate from the south at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) tower, these results suggest that under weak wind conditions waves likely influence surface stress more than stratification does; and Winds and waves are frequently misaligned in the coastal zone. Stability conditions persist for long duration. Over a four year period, the Forschungsplattformen in Nord- und Ostsee Nr. 1 (FINO1) tower (a site with long fetch) primarily experienced weakly-unstable conditions, while stability at the ASIT tower (with a larger influence of offshore winds) experiences a mix of both unstable and stable conditions, where the summer months are predominantly stable. Wind-wave misalignment likely explains the large scatter in observed non-dimensional surface roughness under swell-dominated conditions. Andreas et al.’s (2012) relationship between u* and the 10-m wind speed under predicts the increased u* produced by wave-induced pressure drag produced by misaligned winds and waves. Incorporating wave-state (speed and direction) influences in parameterizations improves predictive skill. In a broad sense, these results suggest that one needs information on winds, temperature, and wave state to upscale buoy measurements to hub-height and across the rotor plane. Our parameterization of wave-state influences on surface drag has been submitted for inclusion in the next publicly available release. In combination, our project elucidates the impacts of two important physical processes (non-equilibrium wind/waves and stratification) on the atmosphere within which offshore turbines operate. This knowledge should help guide and inform manufacturers making critical decisions surrounding design criteria of future turbines to be deployed in the coastal zone. Reductions in annually averaged hub height wind speed error using our new wave-state-aware surface layer parameterization are relatively modest. However since wind turbine power production depends on the wind speed cubed, the error in estimated power production is close to 5%; which is significant and can substantially impact wind resource assessment and decision making with regards to the viability of particular location for a wind plant location. For a single 30-hour forecast, significant reductions in wind speed prediction errors can yield substantially improved wind power forecast skill, thereby mitigating costs and/or increasing revenue through improved; forecasting for maintenance operations and planning; day-ahead forecasting for power trading and resource allocation; and short-term forecasting for dispatch and grid balancing.« less

Set-up and validation of a Delft-FEWS based coastal hazard forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valchev, Nikolay; Eftimova, Petya; Andreeva, Nataliya

2017-04-01

European coasts are increasingly threatened by hazards related to low-probability and high-impact hydro-meteorological events. Uncertainties in hazard prediction and capabilities to cope with their impact lie in both future storm pattern and increasing coastal development. Therefore, adaptation to future conditions requires a re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies and introduction of a more efficient mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. The latter presumes that development of tools, which can manage the complex process of merging data and models and generate products on the current and expected hydro-and morpho-dynamic states of the coasts, such as forecasting system of flooding and erosion hazards at vulnerable coastal locations (hotspots), is of vital importance. Output of such system can be of an utmost value for coastal stakeholders and the entire coastal community. In response to these challenges, Delft-FEWS provides a state-of-the-art framework for implementation of such system with vast capabilities to trigger the early warning process. In addition, this framework is highly customizable to the specific requirements of any individual coastal hotspot. Since its release many Delft-FEWS based forecasting system related to inland flooding have been developed. However, limited number of coastal applications was implemented. In this paper, a set-up of Delft-FEWS based forecasting system for Varna Bay (Bulgaria) and a coastal hotspot, which includes a sandy beach and port infrastructure, is presented. It is implemented in the frame of RISC-KIT project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT). The system output generated in hindcast mode is validated with available observations of surge levels, wave and morphodynamic parameters for a sequence of three short-duration and relatively weak storm events occurred during February 4-12, 2015. Generally, the models' performance is considered as very good and results obtained - quite promising for reliable prediction of both boundary conditions and coastal hazard and gives a good basis for estimation of onshore impact.

Air-Sea Heat Flux Transfer for MJO Initiation Processes during DYNAMO/CINDY2011 in Extended-Range Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Reynolds, C. A.; Doyle, J. D.

2016-12-01

In this study, two-sets of monthly forecasts for the period during the Dynamics of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment of Intraseasonal Variability (DAYNAMO/CINDY) in November 2011 are examined. Each set includes three forecasts with the first set from Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) and the second set from Navy's non-hydrostatic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®1). Three NAVGEM monthly forecasts have used sea surface temperature (SST) from persistent at the initial time, from Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) analysis, and from coupled NAVGEM-Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) forecasts. Examination found that NAVGEM can predict the MJO at 20-days lead time using SST from analysis and from coupled NAVGEM-HYCOM but cannot predict the MJO using the persistent SST, in which a clear circumnavigating signal is absent. Three NAVGEM monthly forecasts are then applied as lateral boundary conditions for three COAMPS monthly forecasts. The results show that all COAMPS runs, including using lateral boundary conditions from the NAVGEM that is without the MJO signal, can predict the MJO. Vertically integrated moisture anomaly and 850-hPa wind anomaly in all COAMPS runs have indicated strong anomalous equatorial easterlies associated with Rossby wave prior to the MJO initiation. Strong surface heat fluxes and turbulence kinetic energy have promoted the convective instability and triggered anomalous ascending motion, which deepens moist boundary layer and develops deep convection into the upper troposphere to form the MJO phase. The results have suggested that air-sea interaction process is important for the initiation and development of the MJO. 1COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

Wind and wave extremes over the world oceans from very large ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan; Abdalla, Saleh; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2014-07-01

Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240 h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from the model climate. Compared with ERA-Interim, a reanalysis, the ensemble yields higher return estimates for both wind speed and significant wave height. Confidence intervals are much tighter due to the large size of the data set. The period (9 years) is short enough to be considered stationary even with climate change. Furthermore, the ensemble is large enough for nonparametric 100 year return estimates to be made from order statistics. These direct return estimates compare well with extreme value estimates outside areas with tropical cyclones. Like any method employing modeled fields, it is sensitive to tail biases in the numerical model, but we find that the biases are moderate outside areas with tropical cyclones.

Integrating Fluvial and Oceanic Drivers in Operational Flooding Forecasts for San Francisco Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdman, Liv; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Kim, Jungho; Cifelli, Rob; Johnson, Lynn

2016-04-01

The nine counties that make up the San Francisco Bay area are home to 7.5 million people and these communties are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland creeks that drain to the bay. A forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers is necessary for predicting flooding in this complex urban environment. The U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS) and National Weather Service (NWS) are developing a state-of-the-art flooding forecast model for the San Francisco Bay area that will predict watershed and ocean-based flooding up to 72 hours in advance of an approaching storm. The model framework for flood forecasts is based on the USGS-developed Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) that was applied to San Francisco Bay under the Our Coast Our Future project. For this application, we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model based on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, seasonal water level anomalies, surge and in-Bay generated wind waves from the wind and pressure fields of a NWS forecast model, and tributary discharges from the Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM), developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development. The flooding extent is determined by overlaying the resulting water levels onto a recently completed 2-m digital elevation model of the study area which best resolves the extensive levee and tidal marsh systems in the region. Here we present initial pilot results of hindcast winter storms in January 2010 and December 2012, where the flooding is driven by oceanic and fluvial factors respectively. We also demonstrate the feasibility of predicting flooding on an operational time scale that incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic forcings.

Approximate Stokes Drift Profiles and their use in Ocean Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, O.; Biblot, J.; Janssen, P. A. E. M.

2016-02-01

Deep-water approximations to the Stokes drift velocity profile are explored as alternatives to the monochromatic profile. The alternative profiles investigated rely on the same two quantities required for the monochromatic profile, viz the Stokes transport and the surface Stokes drift velocity. Comparisons with parametric spectra and profiles under wave spectra from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and buoy observations reveal much better agreement than the monochromatic profile even for complex sea states. That the profiles give a closer match and a more correct shear has implications for ocean circulation models since the Coriolis-Stokes force depends on the magnitude and direction of the Stokes drift profile and Langmuir turbulence parameterizations depend sensitively on the shear of the profile. The NEMO general circulation ocean model was recently extended to incorporate the Stokes-Coriolis force along with two other wave-related effects. I will show some results from the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean ensemble forecast system of ECMWF where these wave effects are now included in the ocean model component.

Observation of Schumann Resonances in the Earth's Ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simoes, Fernando; Pfaff, Robert; Freudenreich, Henry

2011-01-01

The surface of the Earth and the lower edge of the ionosphere define a cavity in which electromagnetic waves propagate. When the cavity is excited by broadband electromagnetic sources, e.g., lightning, a resonant state can develop provided the average equatorial circumference is approximately equal to an integral number of wavelengths of the electromagnetic waves. This phenomenon, known as Schumann resonance, corresponds to electromagnetic oscillations of the surface-ionosphere cavity, and has been used extensively to investigate atmospheric electricity. Using measurements from the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, we report, for the first time, Schumann resonance signatures detected well beyond the upper boundary of the cavity. These results offer new means for investigating atmospheric electricity, tropospheric-ionospheric coupling mechanisms related to lightning activity, and wave propagation in the ionosphere. The detection of Schumann resonances in the ionosphere calls for revisions to the existing models of extremely low frequency wave propagation in the surface-ionosphere cavity. Additionally, these measurements suggest new remote sensing capabilities for investigating atmospheric electricity at other planets.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel

1990-01-01

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

Investigation of Kelvin wave periods during Hai-Tang typhoon using Empirical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jayalakshmi, J.; Lin, Pay-Liam; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.; Ciracì, Enrico; Mohajerani, Yara; Kumar, S. Balaji

2017-11-01

Equatorial Kelvin waves (KWs) are fundamental components of the tropical climate system. In this study, we investigate Kelvin waves (KWs) during the Hai-Tang typhoon of 2005 using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) of regional precipitation, zonal and meridional winds. For the analysis, we use daily precipitation datasets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and wind datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-analysis (ERA-Interim). As an additional measurement, we use in-situ precipitation datasets from rain-gauges over the Taiwan region. The maximum accumulated precipitation was approximately 2400 mm during the period July 17-21, 2005 over the southwestern region of Taiwan. The spectral analysis using the wind speed at 950 hPa found in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) reveals prevailing Kelvin wave periods of ∼3 days, ∼4-6 days, and ∼6-10 days, respectively. From our analysis of precipitation datasets, we found the Kelvin waves oscillated with periods between ∼8 and 20 days.

Hindcast of extreme sea states in North Atlantic extratropical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce de León, Sonia; Guedes Soares, Carlos

2015-02-01

This study examines the variability of freak wave parameters around the eye of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones. The data was obtained from a hindcast performed with the WAve Model (WAM) model forced by the wind fields of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The hindcast results were validated against the wave buoys and satellite altimetry data showing a good correlation. The variability of different wave parameters was assessed by applying the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique on the hindcast data. From the EOF analysis, it can be concluded that the first empirical orthogonal function (V1) accounts for greater share of variability of significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), directional spreading (SPR) and Benjamin-Feir index (BFI). The share of variance in V1 varies for cyclone and variable: for the 2nd storm and Hs V1 contains 96 % of variance while for the 3rd storm and BFI V1 accounts only for 26 % of variance. The spatial patterns of V1 show that the variables are distributed around the cyclones centres mainly in a lobular fashion.

Quantifying the Role of Atmospheric Forcing in Ice Edge Retreat and Advance Including Wind-Wave Coupling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Quantifying the Role of Atmospheric Forcing in Ice Edge Retreat and Advance Including Wind- Wave Coupling Peter S. Guest (NPS Technical Contact) Naval...surface fluxes and ocean waves in coupled models in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. 2. Understand the physics of heat and mass transfer from the ocean...to the atmosphere. 3. Improve forecasting of waves on the open ocean and in the marginal ice zone. 2 OBJECTIVES 1. Quantifying the open-ocean

Application of a wind-wave-current coupled model in the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean sea), for wind energy purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Palomares, Ana; Navarro, Jorge; Grifoll, Manel; Pallares, Elena; Espino, Manuel

2016-04-01

This work shows the main results of the HAREAMAR project (including HAREMAR, ENE2012-38772-C02-01 and DARDO, ENE2012-38772-C02-02 projects), concerning the local Wind, Wave and Current simulation at St. Jordi Bay (NW Mediterranean Sea). Offshore Wind Energy has become one of the main topics within the research in Wind Energy research. Although there are quite a few models with a high level of reliability for wind simulation and prediction in onshore places, the wind prediction needs further investigations for adaptation to the Offshore emplacements, taking into account the interaction atmosphere-ocean. The main problem in these ocean areas is the lack of wind data, which neither allows for characterizing the energy potential and wind behaviour in a particular place, nor validating the forecasting models. The main objective of this work is to reduce the local prediction errors, in order to make the meteo-oceanographic hindcast and forecast more reliable. The COAWST model (Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Sediment Transport Model; Warner et al., 2010) system has been implemented in the region considering a set of downscaling nested meshes to obtain high-resolution outputs in the region. The adaptation to this particular area, combining the different wind, wave and ocean model domains has been far from simple, because the grid domains for the three models differ significantly. This work shows the main results of the COAWST model implementation to this particular area, including both monthly and other set of tests in different atmospheric situations, especially chosen for their particular interest. The time period considered for the validation is the whole year 2012. A comparative study between the WRF, SWAN and ROMS model outputs (without coupling), the COWAST model outputs, and a buoy measurements moored in the region was performed for this year. References Warner, J.C., Armstrong, B., He, R., and Zambon, J.B., 2010, Development of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system: Ocean Modeling, 35 (3), 230-244.

Analysis and Prediction of West African Moist Events during the Boreal Spring of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, Roberto Javier

Weather and climate in Sahelian West Africa are dominated by two major wind systems, the southwesterly West African Monsoon (WAM) and the northeasterly (Harmattan) trade winds. In addition to the agricultural benefit of the WAM, the public health sector is affected given the relationship between the onset of moisture and end of meningitis outbreaks. Knowledge and prediction of moisture distribution during the boreal spring is vital to the mitigation of meningitis by providing guidance for vaccine dissemination. The goal of the present study is to (a) develop a climatology and conceptual model of the moisture regime during the boreal spring, (b) investigate the role of extra-tropical and Convectively-coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEWs) on the modulation of westward moving synoptic waves and (c) determine the efficacy of a regional model as a tool for predicting moisture variability. Medical reports during 2009, along with continuous meteorological observations at Kano, Nigeria, showed that the advent of high humidity correlated with cessation of the disease. Further analysis of the 2009 boreal spring elucidated the presence of short-term moist events that modulated surface moisture on temporal scales relevant to the health sector. The May moist event (MME) provided insight into interplays among climate anomalies, extra-tropical systems, equatorially trapped waves and westward-propagating synoptic disturbances. The synoptic disturbance initiated 7 May and traveled westward to the coast by 12 May. There was a marked, semi-stationary moist anomaly in the precipitable water field (kg m-2) east of 10°E through late April and early May, that moved westward at the time of the MME. Further inspection revealed a mid-latitude system may have played a role in increasing the latitudinal amplitude of the MME. CCEWs were also found to have an impact on the MME. A coherent Kelvin wave propagated through the region, providing increased monsoonal flow and heightened convection. A Ttropical Depression-type (TD-type) system developed on May 7 at 20°E and traveled westward with the MME. As this system progressed westward it induced important changes in surface moisture. The TD-type and Kelvin waves underwent phase coupling over central Nigeria (8°E), strengthening the westward-moving feature on May 9. Further evidence is presented that an ER wave also contributed to the development of the TD-type system. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) was employed to simulate the environment during 2009 in seasonal and real-time forecast modes. WRF was configured during the 2006 boreal spring, given the increase in meteorological information through the Africa Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses project. The model simulated the moist events but tended to have a dry bias and a 2-day delay of the MME for the seasonal simulation. Real-time simulations were able to simulate the MME better than the seasonal run, temporally and spatially. The ensemble simulations served as a testbed for a new tool for the analysis of ensemble prediction skill called the extended ROC (EROC) method. The EROC retains the appealing simplicity of the traditional ROC method and the ability of the EV method to provide evaluation of the performance of an ensemble climate prediction system (EPS) for a hypothetical end user defined by the cost--loss ratio (micro=C/L). Seasonal simulations varied in their useable skill, with Bamako (Mali) as the location with the highest value. This study has revealed that moist events could be of crucial importance to meningitis mitigation. The systems constituting the MME represent predictable phenomena that can be forecasted days in advance. Real-time model simulations were able to diagnose the event 10 days in advance.

Operational Space Weather Products at IPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neudegg, D.; Steward, G.; Marshall, R.; Terkildsen, M.; Kennewell, J.; Patterson, G.; Panwar, R.

2008-12-01

IPS Radio and Space Services operates an extensive network (IPSNET) of monitoring stations and observatories within the Australasian and Antarctic regions to gather information on the space environment. This includes ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS-ISM, oblique HF sounding, riometers, and solar radio and optical telescopes. IPS exchanges this information with similar organisations world-wide. The Regional Warning Centre (RWC) is the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) and it utilizes this data to provide products and services to support customer operations. A wide range of customers use IPS services including; defence force and emergency services using HF radio communications and surveillance systems, organisations involved in geophysical exploration and pipeline cathodic protection, GPS users in aviation. Subscriptions to the alerts, warnings, forecasts and reports regarding the solar, geophysical and ionospheric conditions are distributed by email and Special Message Service (SMS). IPS also develops and markets widely used PC software prediction tools for HF radio skywave and surface wave (ASAPS/GWPS) and provides consultancy services for system planning.

Assimilation of Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations with WRF GSI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xuanli; Mecikalski, John; Fehnel, Traci; Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2014-01-01

Dual-polarimetric (dual-pol) radar typically transmits both horizontally and vertically polarized radio wave pulses. From the two different reflected power returns, more accurate estimate of liquid and solid cloud and precipitation can be provided. The upgrade of the traditional NWS WSR-88D radar to include dual-pol capabilities will soon be completed for the entire NEXRAD network. Therefore, the use of dual-pol radar network will have a broad impact in both research and operational communities. The assimilation of dual-pol radar data is especially challenging as few guidelines have been provided by previous research. It is our goal to examine how to best use dual-pol radar data to improve forecast of severe storm and forecast initialization. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The community GSI system runs in independently environment, yet works functionally equivalent to operational centers. With collaboration with the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, this study explores regional assimilation of the dual-pol radar variables from the WSR-88D radars for real case storms. Our presentation will highlight our recent effort on incorporating the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and radial velocity (VR) data for initializing convective storms, with a significant focus being on an improved representation of hydrometeor fields. In addition, discussion will be provided on the development of enhanced assimilation procedures in the GSI system with respect to dual-pol variables. Beyond the dual-pol variable assimilation procedure developing within a GSI framework, highresolution (=1 km) WRF model simulations and storm scale data assimilation experiments will be examined, emphasizing both model initialization and short-term forecast of precipitation fields and processes. Further details of the methodology of data assimilation, the impact of different dual-pol variables, the influence on precipitation forecast will be presented at the conference.

Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on tsunami forecast and assessment models for great subduction-zone earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.

2007-01-01

Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment models are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast models are based on initial earthquake information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast models developed from subfault discretization of earthquake rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast models of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. This proxy model performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments models based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip models. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the exponential time constant of slip is less than approximately 1 hr. Overall, there is significant variation in assessed runup heights caused by quantifiable uncertainty in both first-order source parameters (e.g., rupture length, slip-length scaling) and spatiotemporal complexity of earthquake rupture.

Sensitivity of a numerical wave model on wind re-analysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavidas, George; Venugopal, Vengatesan; Friedrich, Daniel

2017-03-01

Wind is the dominant process for wave generation. Detailed evaluation of metocean conditions strengthens our understanding of issues concerning potential offshore applications. However, the scarcity of buoys and high cost of monitoring systems pose a barrier to properly defining offshore conditions. Through use of numerical wave models, metocean conditions can be hindcasted and forecasted providing reliable characterisations. This study reports the sensitivity of wind inputs on a numerical wave model for the Scottish region. Two re-analysis wind datasets with different spatio-temporal characteristics are used, the ERA-Interim Re-Analysis and the CFSR-NCEP Re-Analysis dataset. Different wind products alter results, affecting the accuracy obtained. The scope of this study is to assess different available wind databases and provide information concerning the most appropriate wind dataset for the specific region, based on temporal, spatial and geographic terms for wave modelling and offshore applications. Both wind input datasets delivered results from the numerical wave model with good correlation. Wave results by the 1-h dataset have higher peaks and lower biases, in expense of a high scatter index. On the other hand, the 6-h dataset has lower scatter but higher biases. The study shows how wind dataset affects the numerical wave modelling performance, and that depending on location and study needs, different wind inputs should be considered.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters.

PubMed

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J

2016-12-20

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters

PubMed Central

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors. PMID:27930332

Changes in shear-wave splitting before volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Sha; Crampin, Stuart

2015-04-01

We have shown that observations of shear-wave splitting (SWS) monitor stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation before earthquakes which allows the time, magnitude, and in some circumstances fault-plane of impending earthquakes to be stress-forecast. (We call this procedure stress-forecasting rather than predicting or forecasting to emphasise the different formalism.) We have stress-forecast these parameters successfully three-days before a 1988 M5 earthquake in SW Iceland, and identified characteristic anomalies retrospectively before ~16 other earthquakes in Iceland and elsewhere. SWS monitors microcrack geometry and shows that microcracks are so closely spaced that they verge on fracturing and earthquakes. Phenomena verging on failure in this way are critical-systems with 'butterfly wings' sensitivity. Such critical-systems are very common. The Earth is an archetypal complex heterogeneous interactive phenomenon and must be expected to be a critical-system. We claim this critical system as a New Geophysics of a critically-microcracked rock mass. Such critical systems impose a range of fundamentally-new properties on conventional sub-critical physics/geophysics, one of which is universality. Consequently it is expected that we observe similar stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation before volcanic eruptions to those before earthquakes. There are three eruptions where appropriate changes in SWS have been observed similar to those observed before earthquakes. These are: the 1996 Gjálp fissure eruption, Vatnajökull, Iceland; a 2001 flank eruption on Mount Etna, Sicily (reported by Francesca Bianco, INGV, Naples); and the 2010 Eyjafjajökull ash-cloud eruption, SW Iceland. These will be presented in the same normalised format as is used before earthquakes. The 1996 Gjálp eruption showed a 2½-month stress-accumulation, and a ~1-year stress-relaxation (attributed to the North Atlantic Ridge adjusting to the magma injection beneath the Vatnajökull Ice Cap). The 2001 flank eruption of Etna showed stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation typical of a small earthquake. However, the changes in SWS before the 2010 Eyjafjajökull Eruption, SW Iceland, showed the most distinctive correlations with earthquakes, as it was only ~90km-west of the 1988 M5 in SW Iceland, which was successfully stress-forecast. The behaviour of SWS before the M5 earthquake and the Eyjafjajökull flank (ash-cloud) eruption is almost identical both showing linear stress-accumulation increases, and linear stress-relaxation decreases to the earthquake and the onset of the flank eruption, respectively. There are comparable slopes and durations. We consider this strong confirmation of the universality property of the New Geophysics of a critically-microcracked Earth. Papers referring to these developments can be found in geos.ed.ac.uk/home/scrampin/opinion. Also see abstracts in EGU2015 Sessions: Crampin & Gao (SM1.1), Gao & Crampin (SM3.1), and Crampin & Gao (GD.1).

Parameter identification of JONSWAP spectrum acquired by airborne LIDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Pei, Hailong; Xu, Chengzhong

2017-12-01

In this study, we developed the first linear Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) spectrum (JS), which involves a transformation from the JS solution to the natural logarithmic scale. This transformation is convenient for defining the least squares function in terms of the scale and shape parameters. We identified these two wind-dependent parameters to better understand the wind effect on surface waves. Due to its efficiency and high-resolution, we employed the airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) system for our measurements. Due to the lack of actual data, we simulated ocean waves in the MATLAB environment, which can be easily translated into industrial programming language. We utilized the Longuet-Higgin (LH) random-phase method to generate the time series of wave records and used the fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique to compute the power spectra density. After validating these procedures, we identified the JS parameters by minimizing the mean-square error of the target spectrum to that of the estimated spectrum obtained by FFT. We determined that the estimation error is relative to the amount of available wave record data. Finally, we found the inverse computation of wind factors (wind speed and wind fetch length) to be robust and sufficiently precise for wave forecasting.

Global Measurements of Stratospheric Mountain Waves from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckermann, Stephen D.; Preusse, Peter; Jackman, Charles H. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Temperatures acquired by the Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) during shuttle mission STS-66 have provided measurements of stratospheric mountain waves from space. Large-amplitude, long-wavelength mountain waves at heights of 15 to 30 kilometers above the southern Andes Mountains were observed and characterized, with vigorous wave breaking inferred above 30 kilometers. Mountain waves also occurred throughout the stratosphere (15 to 45 kilometers) over a broad mountainous region of central Eurasia. The global distribution of mountain wave activity accords well with predictions from a mountain wave model. The findings demonstrate that satellites can provide the global data needed to improve mountain wave parameterizations and hence global climate and forecast models.

Long-term Global Morphology of Gravity Wave Activity Using UARS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckermann, Stephen D.; Jackman, C. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

An extensive body of research this quarter is documented. Further methodical analysis of temperature residuals in Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) Version 8 level 3AT data show signatures during December 1992 at middle and high northern latitudes that, when compared to Naval Research Laboratory/Mountain Wave Forecast Model (NRL)/(MWFM) mountain wave hindcasts, reveal evidence of long mountain waves in these data over Eurasia, Greenland, Scandinavia and North America. The explicit detection of gravity waves in limb-scanned Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) temperatures is modeled at length, to derive visibility functions. These insights are used to convert CRISTA gravity wave temperature residuals into data that more closely resemble gravity wave fluctuations detected in data from other satellite instruments, such as Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) and Global Positioning System/Meteorology (GPS)/(MET). Finally, newly issued mesospheric temperatures from inversion of CRISTA 15gin emissions are analyzed using a new method that uses separate Kalman fits to the ascending and descending node data. This allows us to study global gravity wave amplitudes at two local times, 12 hours apart. In the equatorial mesosphere, where a large diurnal tidal temperature signal exists, we see modulations of gravity wave activity that are consistent with gravity wave-tidal interactions produced by tidal temperature variability.

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

Simulation of the trajectory of microwaves during passage of Mesoescale Convective System over Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diniz, F. L.; Munchow, G. B.; Herdies, D. L.; Foster, P. R.

2010-12-01

When the eletromagnetic wave travels in the atmosphere from one medium to another with different density and/or composition suffers small changes in speed and direction of propagation. These changes are caused by the vertical variation of atmospheric refractive index. This causes different types of trajectory deviations, which can be called: normal refraction, sub-refraction, super-refraction and duct. The condition to create duct is satisfied when there is a especific vertical profile of refraction, in this case an eletromagnectic wave will oscillate in a layer of the atmosphere. Considering that this ducts condition can causes damage in the transmission and reception of microwave system equipment (e.g. telecomunications, global positioning, weather radars and satellites) and that in the Rio Grande do Sul, state of Brazil, there are two weather radars, this study present a simulation of the trajectory that would have an eletromagnetic wave. In this study was used soundings of the atmosphere to infer the vertical profile of refractive index during the passage of a Mesoescale Convective System on September 7, 2009. In the lack of this data a numerical simulation with nested grids using Weather Research & Forecasting Model was performed to infer this.

Challenges in Understanding and Forecasting Winds in Complex Terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, J.; Fernando, J.; Wilczak, J. M.

2017-12-01

An overview will be given of some of the challenges in understanding and forecasting winds in complex terrain. These challenges can occur for several different reasons including 1) gaps in our understanding of fundamental physical boundary layer processes occurring in complex terrain; 2) a lack of adequate parameterizations and/or numerical schemes in NWP models; and 3) inadequate observations for initialization of NWP model forecasts. Specific phenomena that will be covered include topographic wakes/vortices, cold pools, gap flows, and mountain-valley winds, with examples taken from several air quality and wind energy related field programs in California as well as from the recent Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2) field campaign in the Columbia River Gorge/Basin area of Washington and Oregon States. Recent parameterization improvements discussed will include those for boundary layer turbulence, including 3D turbulence schemes, and gravity wave drag. Observational requirements for improving wind forecasting in complex terrain will be discussed, especially in the context of forecasting pressure gradient driven gap flow events.

Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

2014-05-01

Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for recurrence, duration, and frequency response. At the Southern California field sites, one loop antenna was positioned for omni-directional reception and also detected a strong First Schumann Resonance; however, additional Schumann Resonances were absent. At the Timpson, TX field sites, loop antennae were positioned for directional reception, due to earthquake-induced, hydraulic fracturing activity currently conducted by the oil and gas industry. Two strong signals, one moderately strong signal, and approximately 6-8 weaker signals were detected in the immediate vicinity. The three stronger signals were mapped by a biangulation technique, followed by a triangulation technique for confirmation. This was the first antenna mapping technique ever performed for determining possible earthquake epicenters. Six and a half months later, Timpson experienced two M4 (M4.1 and M4.3) earthquakes on September 2, 2013 followed by a M2.4 earthquake three days later, all occurring at a depth of five kilometers. The Timpson earthquake activity now has a cyclical rate and a forecast was given to the proper authorities. As a result, the Southern California and Timpson, TX field results led to an improved design and construction of a third prototype antenna. With a loop antenna array, a viable communication system, and continuous monitoring, a full fracture cycle can be established and observed in real-time. In addition, field data could be reviewed quickly for assessment and lead to a much more improved earthquake forecasting capability. The EM precursors determined by this method appear to surpass all prior precursor claims, and the general public will finally receive long overdue forecasting.

Novel Atmospheric and Sea State Modeling in Ocean Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, George; Galanis, George; Kalogeri, Christina; Larsen, Xiaoli Guo

2013-04-01

The rapidly increasing use of renewable energy sources poses new challenges for the research and technological community today. The integration of the, usually, highly variable wind and wave energy amounts into the general grid, the optimization of energy transition and the forecast of extreme values that could lead to instabilities and failures of the system can be listed among them. In the present work, novel methodologies based on state of the art numerical wind/wave simulation systems and advanced statistical techniques addressing such type of problems are discussed. In particular, extremely high resolution modeling systems simulating the atmospheric and sea state conditions with spatial resolution of 100 meters or less and temporal discretization of a few seconds are utilized in order to simulate in the most detailed way the combined wind-wave energy potential at offshore sites. In addition, a statistical analysis based on a variety of mean and variation measures as well as univariate and bivariate probability distributions is used for the estimation of the variability of the power potential revealing the advantages of the use of combined forms of energy by offshore platforms able to produce wind and wave power simultaneously. The estimation and prediction of extreme wind/wave conditions - a critical issue both for site assessment and infrastructure maintenance - is also studied by means of the 50-year return period over areas with increased power potential. This work has been carried out within the framework of the FP7 project MARINA Platform (http://www.marina-platform.info/index.aspx).

A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Fisher, William S; Malone, Thomas C; Giattina, James D

2003-01-01

More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.

Development of a GPS buoy system for monitoring tsunami, sea waves, ocean bottom crustal deformation and atmospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Teruyuki; Terada, Yukihiro; Nagai, Toshihiko; Koshimura, Shun'ichi

2010-05-01

We have developed a GPS buoy system for monitoring tsunami for over 12 years. The idea was that a buoy equipped with a GPS antenna and placed offshore may be an effective way of monitoring tsunami before its arrival to the coast and to give warning to the coastal residents. The key technology for the system is real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS technology. We have successfully developed the system; we have detected tsunamis of about 10cm in height for three large earthquakes, namely, the 23 June 2001 Peru earthquake (Mw8.4), the 26 September 2003 Tokachi earthquake (Mw8.3) and the 5 September 2004 earthquake (Mw7.4). The developed GPS buoy system is also capable of monitoring sea waves that are mainly caused by winds. Only the difference between tsunami and sea waves is their frequency range and can be segregated each other by a simple filtering technique. Given the success of GPS buoy experiments, the system has been adopted as a part of the Nationwide Ocean Wave information system for Port and HArborS (NOWPHAS) by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan. They have established more than eight GPS buoys along the Japanese coasts and the system has been operated by the Port and Airport Research Institute. As a future scope, we are now planning to implement some other additional facilities for the GPS buoy system. The first application is a so-called GPS/Acoustic system for monitoring ocean bottom crustal deformation. The system requires acoustic waves to detect ocean bottom reference position, which is the geometrical center of an array of transponders, by measuring distances between a position at the sea surface (vessel) and ocean bottom equipments to return the received sonic wave. The position of the vessel is measured using GPS. The system was first proposed by a research group at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in early 1980's. The system was extensively developed by Japanese researchers and is now capable of detecting ocean bottom positions with a few centimeters in accuracy. The system is now operational for more than ten sites along the Japanese coasts. Currently, however, the measurements are not continuous but have been done once to several times a year using a boat. If a GPS and acoustic system is placed on a buoy, ocean bottom position could be monitored in near real-time and continuous manner. This will allow us to monitor more detailed and short term crustal deformations at the sea bottom. Another application plan is for an atmospheric research. Previous researchers have shown that GPS is capable of measuring atmospheric water vapor through estimating tropospheric zenith delay measurements of GPS at the sea surface. Information of water vapor content and its temporal variation over sea surface will much contribute to weather forecast on land which has mostly been conducted only by land observations. Considering that the atmospheric mass moves from west to east in general in and around Japanese islands, information of water vapor together with other atmospheric data from an array of GPS buoy placed in the west of Japanese Islands, will much improve weather forecast. We try to examine if this is also feasible. As a conclusion of a series of GPS buoy experiments, we could assert that GPS buoy system will be a powerful tool to monitor ocean surface and much contribute to provide safe and secure life of people.

Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.

Utilizing Climate Forecasts for Improving Water and Power Systems Coordination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Queiroz, A.; Patskoski, J.; Mahinthakumar, K.; DeCarolis, J.

2016-12-01

Climate forecasts, typically monthly-to-seasonal precipitation forecasts, are commonly used to develop streamflow forecasts for improving reservoir management. Irrespective of their high skill in forecasting, temperature forecasts in developing power demand forecasts are not often considered along with streamflow forecasts for improving water and power systems coordination. In this study, we consider a prototype system to analyze the utility of climate forecasts, both precipitation and temperature, for improving water and power systems coordination. The prototype system, a unit-commitment model that schedules power generation from various sources, is considered and its performance is compared with an energy system model having an equivalent reservoir representation. Different skill sets of streamflow forecasts and power demand forecasts are forced on both water and power systems representations for understanding the level of model complexity required for utilizing monthly-to-seasonal climate forecasts to improve coordination between these two systems. The analyses also identify various decision-making strategies - forward purchasing of fuel stocks, scheduled maintenance of various power systems and tradeoff on water appropriation between hydropower and other uses - in the context of various water and power systems configurations. Potential application of such analyses for integrating large power systems with multiple river basins is also discussed.

Wave Forecasting in Muddy Coastal Environments: Model Development Based on Real-Time Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-30

oversees the operation of WAVCIS and tasks pertaining to it. Sheremet is responsible for data analysis . WORK COMPLETED The main effort has been...8, 1121-1131, 1978. Foda , M.A., J.R. Hunt and H.-T. Chou, A nonlinear model for the fluidization of marine mud by waves, J. Geophys. Res. 98

Supporting New Missions by Observing Simulation Experiments in WACCM-X/GEOS-5 and TIME-GCM: Initial Design, Challenges and Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yudin, V. A.; England, S.; Liu, H.; Solomon, S. C.; Immel, T. J.; Maute, A. I.; Burns, A. G.; Foster, B.; Wu, Q.; Goncharenko, L. P.

2013-12-01

We examine the capability of novel configurations of community models, WACCM-X and TIME-GCM, to support current and forthcoming space-borne missions to monitor the dynamics and composition of the Mesosphere-Thermosphere-Ionosphere (MTI) system. In these configurations the lower atmosphere of WACCM-X is constrained by operational analyses and/or short-term forecasts provided by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) of Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA/GSFC. With the terrestrial weather of GEOS-5 and updated model physics the simulations in the MTI are capable to reproduce observed signatures of the perturbed wave dynamics and ion-neutral coupling during recent stratospheric warming events, short-term, annual and year-to-year variability of prevailing flows, planetary waves, tides, and composition. These 'terrestrial-weather' driven simulations with day-to-day variable solar and geomagnetic inputs can provide background state (first guess) and error statistics for the inverse algorithms of new NASA missions, ICON and GOLD at locations and time of observations in the MTI region. With two different viewing geometries (sun-synchronous and geostationary) of instruments, ICON and GOLD will provide complimentary global observations of temperature, winds and constituents to constrain the first-principle forecast models. This paper will discuss initial design of Observing Simulation Experiments (OSE) in WACCM-X/GEOS-5 and TIME-GCM. As recognized, OSE represent an excellent learning tool for designing and evaluating observing capabilities of novel sensors. They can guide on how to integrate/combine information from different instruments. The choice of assimilation schemes, forecast and observational errors will be discussed along with challenges and perspectives to constrain fast-varying tidal dynamics and their effects in models by combination of sun-synchronous and geostationary observations of ICON and GOLD. We will also discuss how correlative space-borne and ground-based observations can verify OSE results in the observable and non-observable regions of the MTI.

Development of Parallel Code for the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahng, B.; Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

The Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is a numerical model used to forecast propagation and inundation of tsunamis generated by earthquakes and other means in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. At the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), the model is mainly used in a pre-computed fashion. That is, results for hundreds of hypothetical events are computed before alerts, and are accessed and calibrated with observations during tsunamis to immediately produce forecasts. ATFM uses the non-linear, depth-averaged, shallow-water equations of motion with multiply nested grids in two-way communications between domains of each parent-child pair as waves get closer to coastal waters. Even with the pre-computation the task becomes non-trivial as sub-grid resolution gets finer. Currently, the finest resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) used by ATFM are 1/3 arc-seconds. With a serial code, large or multiple areas of very high resolution can produce run-times that are unrealistic even in a pre-computed approach. One way to increase the model performance is code parallelization used in conjunction with a multi-processor computing environment. NTWC developers have undertaken an ATFM code-parallelization effort to streamline the creation of the pre-computed database of results with the long term aim of tsunami forecasts from source to high resolution shoreline grids in real time. Parallelization will also permit timely regeneration of the forecast model database with new DEMs; and, will make possible future inclusion of new physics such as the non-hydrostatic treatment of tsunami propagation. The purpose of our presentation is to elaborate on the parallelization approach and to show the compute speed increase on various multi-processor systems.

The impact of water vapor assimilation on quantitative precipitation forecast over the Washington, DC metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walford, Segayle Cereta

Forecasting subtle, small-scale convective cases in both winter and summer time is an ongoing challenge in weather forecasting. Recent studies have shown that better structure of moisture within the boundary layer is crucial for improving forecasting skills, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). Lidars, which take high temporal observations of moisture, are able to capture very detailed structures, especially within the boundary layer where convection often begins. This study first investigates the extent to which an aerosol and a water vapor lidar are able to capture key boundary layer processes necessary for the development of convection. The results of this preliminary study show that the water vapor lidar is best able to capture the small scale water vapor variability that is necessary for the development of convection. These results are then used to investigate impacts of assimilating moisture from the Howard University Raman Lidar (HURL) for one mesoscale convective case, July 27-28, 2006. The data for this case is from the Water Vapor Validation Experiment-Satellite and Sondes (WAVES) field campaign located at the Howard University Beltsville Site (HUBS) in Beltsville, MD. Specifically, lidar-based water vapor mixing ratio profiles are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model over a 4 km grid resolution over Washington, DC. Model verification is conducted using the Meteorological Evaluation Tool (MET) and the results from the lidar run are then compared to a control (no assimilation) run. The findings indicate that quantitatively conclusions cannot be draw from this one case study. However, qualitatively, the assimilation of the lidar observations improved the equivalent potential temperature, and water vapor distribution of the region. This difference changed location, strength and spatial coverage of the convective system over the HUBS region.

Wake Response to an Ocean-Feedback Mechanism: Madeira Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Rui M. A.; Tomé, Ricardo

2013-08-01

We focus on an island wake episode that occurred in the Madeira Archipelago region of the north-east Atlantic at 32.5° N, 17° W. The Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model was used in a (one-way) downscaling mode, considering initial and boundary conditions from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts system. The current literature emphasizes adiabatic effects on the dynamical aspects of atmospheric wakes. Changes in mountain height and consequently its relation to the atmospheric inversion layer should explain the shift in wake regimes, from a `strong-wake' to `weak-wake' scenario. Nevertheless, changes in sea-surface temperature variability in the lee of an island can induce similar regime shifts because of exposure to stronger solar radiation. Increase in evaporation contributes to the enhancement of convection and thus to the uplift of the stratified atmospheric layer above the critical height, with subsequent internal gravity wave activity.

Exploring Options for an Integrated Water Level Observation Network in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCammon, M.

2016-02-01

Portions' of Alaska's remote coastlines are among the Nation's most vulnerable to geohazards such as tsunami, extra-tropical storm surge, and erosion; and the availability of observations of water levels, ocean waves, and river discharge are severely lacking to support water level warnings and forecasts. Alaska is experiencing dramatic reductions in sea ice cover, changes in extra-tropical storm surge patterns, and thawing permafrost. These conditions are endangering coastal populations throughout the State. Gaps in the ocean observing system limit our State's ability to provide useful marine and sea ice forecasts, especially in the Arctic. A spectrum of observation platforms may provide an optimal solution for filling the most critical gaps in these coastal and ocean areas. The collaborations described in this talk and better leveraging of resources and capabilities across federal, state, and academic partners will provide the best opportunity for advancing our science capacity and capabilities in this remote region.

Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzaei, Ali; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Mustapha, Muzneena Ahmad; Husain, Mohd Lokman; Akhir, Mohd Fadzil

2013-08-01

This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Niño3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Niño Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Niño signals.

Multiscale climate emulator of multimodal wave spectra: MUSCLE-spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, Ana; Hegermiller, Christie A.; Antolinez, Jose A. A.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Tomás, Antonio; Mendez, Fernando J.

2017-02-01

Characterization of multimodal directional wave spectra is important for many offshore and coastal applications, such as marine forecasting, coastal hazard assessment, and design of offshore wave energy farms and coastal structures. However, the multivariate and multiscale nature of wave climate variability makes this complex problem tractable using computationally expensive numerical models. So far, the skill of statistical-downscaling model-based parametric (unimodal) wave conditions is limited in large ocean basins such as the Pacific. The recent availability of long-term directional spectral data from buoys and wave hindcast models allows for development of stochastic models that include multimodal sea-state parameters. This work introduces a statistical downscaling framework based on weather types to predict multimodal wave spectra (e.g., significant wave height, mean wave period, and mean wave direction from different storm systems, including sea and swells) from large-scale atmospheric pressure fields. For each weather type, variables of interest are modeled using the categorical distribution for the sea-state type, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for wave height and wave period, a multivariate Gaussian copula for the interdependence between variables, and a Markov chain model for the chronology of daily weather types. We apply the model to the southern California coast, where local seas and swells from both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres contribute to the multimodal wave spectrum. This work allows attribution of particular extreme multimodal wave events to specific atmospheric conditions, expanding knowledge of time-dependent, climate-driven offshore and coastal sea-state conditions that have a significant influence on local nearshore processes, coastal morphology, and flood hazards.

Multiscale Climate Emulator of Multimodal Wave Spectra: MUSCLE-spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, A.; Hegermiller, C.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Camus, P.; Vitousek, S.; Ruggiero, P.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Tomas, A.; Mendez, F. J.

2016-12-01

Characterization of multimodal directional wave spectra is important for many offshore and coastal applications, such as marine forecasting, coastal hazard assessment, and design of offshore wave energy farms and coastal structures. However, the multivariate and multiscale nature of wave climate variability makes this problem complex yet tractable using computationally-expensive numerical models. So far, the skill of statistical-downscaling models based parametric (unimodal) wave conditions is limited in large ocean basins such as the Pacific. The recent availability of long-term directional spectral data from buoys and wave hindcast models allows for development of stochastic models that include multimodal sea-state parameters. This work introduces a statistical-downscaling framework based on weather types to predict multimodal wave spectra (e.g., significant wave height, mean wave period, and mean wave direction from different storm systems, including sea and swells) from large-scale atmospheric pressure fields. For each weather type, variables of interest are modeled using the categorical distribution for the sea-state type, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for wave height and wave period, a multivariate Gaussian copula for the interdependence between variables, and a Markov chain model for the chronology of daily weather types. We apply the model to the Southern California coast, where local seas and swells from both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres contribute to the multimodal wave spectrum. This work allows attribution of particular extreme multimodal wave events to specific atmospheric conditions, expanding knowledge of time-dependent, climate-driven offshore and coastal sea-state conditions that have a significant influence on local nearshore processes, coastal morphology, and flood hazards.

46 CFR 185.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... direction of the transiting area; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused...

46 CFR 185.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... direction of the transiting area; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused...

46 CFR 185.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... direction of the transiting area; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused...

46 CFR 185.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... direction of the transiting area; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused...

Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

2008-01-01

Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

Wave parameters comparisons between High Frequency (HF) radar system and an in situ buoy: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Maria; Alonso-Martirena, Andrés; Agostinho, Pedro; Sanchez, Jorge; Ferrer, Macu; Fernandes, Carlos

2015-04-01

The coastal zone is an important area for the development of maritime countries, either in terms of recreation, energy exploitation, weather forecasting or national security. Field measurements are in the basis of understanding how coastal and oceanic processes occur. Most processes occur over long timescales and over large spatial ranges, like the variation of mean sea level. These processes also involve a variety of factors such as waves, winds, tides, storm surges, currents, etc., that cause huge interference on such phenomena. Measurement of waves have been carried out using different techniques. The instruments used to measure wave parameters can be very different, i.e. buoys, ship base equipment like sonar and satellites. Each equipment has its own advantage and disadvantage depending on the study subject. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the behaviour of a different technology available and presently adopted in wave measurement. In the past few years the measurement of waves using High Frequency (HF) Radars has had several developments. Such a method is already established as a powerful tool for measuring the pattern of surface current, but its use in wave measurements, especially in the dual arrangement is recent. Measurement of the backscatter of HF radar wave provides the raw dataset which is analyzed to give directional data of surface elevation at each range cell. Buoys and radars have advantages, disadvantages and its accuracy is discussed in this presentation. A major advantage with HF radar systems is that they are unaffected by weather, clouds or changing ocean conditions. The HF radar system is a very useful tool for the measurement of waves over a wide area with real-time observation, but it still lacks a method to check its accuracy. The primary goal of this study was to show how the HF radar system responds to high energetic variations when compared to wave buoy data. The bulk wave parameters used (significant wave height, period and direction) were obtained during 2013 and 2014 from one 13.5 MHz CODAR SeaSonde radar station from Hydrographic Institute, located in Espichel Cape (Portugal). These data were compared with those obtained from one wave buoy Datawell Directional Waverider, also from Hydrographic Institute, moored inbound Sines (Portugal) at 100 m depth. For this first approach, was assumed that all the waves are in a deep water situation. Results showed that during high energetic periods, the HF radar system revealed a good correlation with wave buoy data following the bulk wave parameters gradient variations.

An alternative possibility to equatorial plasma bubble forecasting through mathematical modeling and Digisonde data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousasantos, J.; Kherani, E. A.; Sobral, J. H. A.

2017-02-01

Equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs), or large-scale plasma depleted regions, are one of the subjects of great interest in space weather research since such phenomena have been extensively reported to cause strong degrading effects on transionospheric radio propagation at low latitudes, especially over the Brazilian region, where satellite communication interruptions by the EPBs have been, frequently, registered. One of the most difficult tasks for this field of scientific research is the forecasting of such plasma-depleted structures. This forecasting capability would be of significant help for users of positioning/navigation systems operating in the low-latitude/equatorial region all over the world. Recently, some efforts have been made trying to assess and improve the capability of predicting the EPB events. The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to EPB prediction by means of the use of mathematical numerical simulation associated with ionospheric vertical drift, obtained through Digisonde data, focusing on telling beforehand whether ionospheric plasma instability processes will evolve or not into EPB structures. Modulations in the ionospheric vertical motion induced by gravity waves prior to the prereversal enhancement occurrence were used as input in the numerical model. A comparison between the numerical results and the observed EPB phenomena through CCD all-sky image data reveals a considerable coherence and supports the hypothesis of a capability of short-term forecasting.

The quasi 2 day wave response in TIME-GCM nudged with NOGAPS-ALPHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jack C.; Chang, Loren C.; Yue, Jia; Wang, Wenbin; Siskind, D. E.

2017-05-01

The quasi 2 day wave (QTDW) is a traveling planetary wave that can be enhanced rapidly to large amplitudes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during the northern winter postsolstice period. In this study, we present five case studies of QTDW events during January and February 2005, 2006 and 2008-2010 by using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Electrodynamics-General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) nudged with the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) Weather Forecast Model. With NOGAPS-ALPHA introducing more realistic lower atmospheric forcing in TIME-GCM, the QTDW events have successfully been reproduced in the TIME-GCM. The nudged TIME-GCM simulations show good agreement in zonal mean state with the NOGAPS-ALPHA 6 h reanalysis data and the horizontal wind model below the mesopause; however, it has large discrepancies in the tropics above the mesopause. The zonal mean zonal wind in the mesosphere has sharp vertical gradients in the nudged TIME-GCM. The results suggest that the parameterized gravity wave forcing may need to be retuned in the assimilative TIME-GCM.

Approximate Stokes Drift Profiles and their use in Ocean Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Oyvind; Bidlot, Jea-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.; Mogensen, Kristian

2016-04-01

Deep-water approximations to the Stokes drift velocity profile are explored as alternatives to the monochromatic profile. The alternative profiles investigated rely on the same two quantities required for the monochromatic profile, viz the Stokes transport and the surface Stokes drift velocity. Comparisons against parametric spectra and profiles under wave spectra from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and buoy observations reveal much better agreement than the monochromatic profile even for complex sea states. That the profiles give a closer match and a more correct shear has implications for ocean circulation models since the Coriolis-Stokes force depends on the magnitude and direction of the Stokes drift profile and Langmuir turbulence parameterizations depend sensitively on the shear of the profile. Of the two Stokes drift profiles explored here, the profile based on the Phillips spectrum is by far the best. In particular, the shear near the surface is almost identical to that influenced by the f-5 tail of spectral wave models. The NEMO general circulation ocean model was recently extended to incorporate the Stokes-Coriolis force along with two other wave-related effects. The ECWMF coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean ensemble forecast system now includes these wave effects in the ocean model component (NEMO).

Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doi, K.; Kato, T.

2003-12-01

An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally monitors earthquake data and analyzes earthquake activities and tsunami occurrence round-the-clock on a real-time basis. In addition to the above, JMA has been developing a system of Nowcast Earthquake Information which can provide its users with occurrence of an earthquake prior to arrival of strong ground motion for a decade. Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, is preparing a demonstrative experiment in collaboration with JMA, for a better utilization of Nowcast Earthquake Information to apply actual measures to reduce earthquake disasters caused by strong ground motion.

Numerical Model Metrics Tools in Support of Navy Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dykes, J. D.; Fanguy, P.

2017-12-01

Increasing demands of accurate ocean forecasts that are relevant to the Navy mission decision makers demand tools that quickly provide relevant numerical model metrics to the forecasters. Increasing modelling capabilities with ever-higher resolution domains including coupled and ensemble systems as well as the increasing volume of observations and other data sources to which to compare the model output requires more tools for the forecaster to enable doing more with less. These data can be appropriately handled in a geographic information system (GIS) fused together to provide useful information and analyses, and ultimately a better understanding how the pertinent model performs based on ground truth.. Oceanographic measurements like surface elevation, profiles of temperature and salinity, and wave height can all be incorporated into a set of layers correlated to geographic information such as bathymetry and topography. In addition, an automated system that runs concurrently with the models on high performance machines matches routinely available observations to modelled values to form a database of matchups with which statistics can be calculated and displayed, to facilitate validation of forecast state and derived variables. ArcMAP, developed by Environmental Systems Research Institute, is a GIS application used by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and naval operational meteorological and oceanographic centers to analyse the environment in support of a range of Navy missions. For example, acoustic propagation in the ocean is described with a three-dimensional analysis of sound speed that depends on profiles of temperature, pressure and salinity predicted by the Navy Coastal Ocean Model. The data and model output must include geo-referencing information suitable for accurately placing the data within the ArcMAP framework. NRL has developed tools that facilitate merging these geophysical data and their analyses, including intercomparisons between model predictions as well as comparison to validation data. This methodology produces new insights and facilitates identification of potential problems in ocean prediction.

46 CFR 122.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused by own wake; (6) The danger...

46 CFR 122.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused by own wake; (6) The danger...

46 CFR 122.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused by own wake; (6) The danger...

46 CFR 122.304 - Navigation underway.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...; (2) Tidal state; (3) Prevailing and forecasted visibility and environmental conditions, including wind and waves; (4) Density of marine traffic; (5) Potential damage caused by own wake; (6) The danger...

Improving Subtropical Boundary Layer Cloudiness in the 2011 NCEP GFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fletcher, J. K.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Xiao, Heng

2014-09-23

The current operational version of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows significant low cloud bias. These biases also appear in the Coupled Forecast System (CFS), which is developed from the GFS. These low cloud biases degrade seasonal and longer climate forecasts, particularly of short-wave cloud radiative forcing, and affect predicted sea surface temperature. Reducing this bias in the GFS will aid the development of future CFS versions and contributes to NCEP's goal of unified weather and climate modelling. Changes are made to the shallow convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisations to make them more consistentmore » with current knowledge of these processes and to reduce the low cloud bias. These changes are tested in a single-column version of GFS and in global simulations with GFS coupled to a dynamical ocean model. In the single-column model, we focus on changing parameters that set the following: the strength of shallow cumulus lateral entrainment, the conversion of updraught liquid water to precipitation and grid-scale condensate, shallow cumulus cloud top, and the effect of shallow convection in stratocumulus environments. Results show that these changes improve the single-column simulations when compared to large eddy simulations, in particular through decreasing the precipitation efficiency of boundary layer clouds. These changes, combined with a few other model improvements, also reduce boundary layer cloud and albedo biases in global coupled simulations.« less

Prediction of Significant Wave Heights in the Tropics at Sub-seasonal Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, R. P.; Shin, C. S.

2017-12-01

Skillfully predicting the 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) forecasts at 3 weeks lead-time over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans has been demonstrated using the WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model coupled to a modified version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). In this paper, we present results on the effect of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events and El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on such predictions. Forecasts initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008 are evaluated. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at 3 weeks lead-time is found over portions of the domain in both January and May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central Indian Ocean and northern western tropical Pacific, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean and western Pacific. The model also reproduces the spatial pattern of the inverse relationship between SWHA and sea level pressure anomalies during both composite El Niño and La Niña events at 3 weeks lead-time. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA in May over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea in composites of phases 2 and 6 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of MJO and ENSO. Analysis of the mechanisms for these relationships is described.

Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

2016-02-01

The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks

PubMed Central

Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

In recent years, a number of systems capable of predicting future infectious disease incidence have been developed. As more of these systems are operationalized, it is important that the forecasts generated by these different approaches be formally reconciled so that individual forecast error and bias are reduced. Here we present a first example of such multi-system, or superensemble, forecast. We develop three distinct systems for predicting dengue, which are applied retrospectively to forecast outbreak characteristics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. We then use Bayesian averaging methods to combine the predictions from these systems and create superensemble forecasts. We demonstrate that on average, the superensemble approach produces more accurate forecasts than those made from any of the individual forecasting systems. PMID:27733698

Identification of wind fields for wave modeling near Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nayak, Sashikant; Balan Sobhana, Sandeepan; Panchang, Vijay

2016-04-01

Due to the development of coastal and offshore infrastructure in and around the Arabian Gulf, a large semi-enclosed sea, knowledge of met-ocean factors like prevailing wind systems, wind generated waves, and currents etc. are of great importance. Primarily it is important to identify the wind fields that are used as forcing functions for wave and circulation models for hindcasting and forecasting purposes. The present study investigates the effects of using two sources of wind-fields on the modeling of wind-waves in the Arabian Gulf, in particular near the coastal regions of Qatar. Two wind sources are considered here, those obtained from ECMWF and those generated by us using the WRF model. The wave model SWAN was first forced with the 6 hourly ERA Interim daily winds (from ECMWF) having spatial resolution of 0.125°. For the second option, wind fields were generated by us using the mesoscale wind model (WRF) with a high spatial resolution (0.1°) at every 30 minute intervals. The simulations were carried out for a period of two months (7th October-7th December, 2015) during which measurements were available from two moored buoys (deployed and operated by the Qatar Meteorological Department), one in the north of Qatar ("Qatar North", in water depth of 58.7 m) and other in the south ("Shiraouh Island", in water depth of 16.64 m). This period included a high-sea event on 11-12th of October, recorded by the two buoys where the significant wave heights (Hs) reached as high as 2.9 m (i.e. max wave height H ~ 5.22 m) and 1.9 (max wave height H ~ 3.4 m) respectively. Model results were compared with the data for this period. The scatter index (SI) of the Hs simulated using the WRF wind fields and the observed Hs was found to be about 30% and 32% for the two buoys (total period). The observed Hs were generally reproduced but there was consistent underestimation. (Maximum 27% for the high-sea event). For the Hs obtained with ERA interim wind fields, the underestimation was of the order of 50% (on average) for the entire duration. The study therefore suggests the use of a mesoscale weather forecasting model such as WRF, for deriving the wind fields for a large but marginal semi-enclosed sea where small scale phenomena dominate, and when used as forcing in the wave model, it provides wave-climate predictions with less error.

Simulating Glacial Outburst Lake Releases for Suicide Basin, Mendenhall Glacier, Juneau, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, A. B.; Moran, T.; Hood, E. W.

2017-12-01

Glacial Lake outbursts from Suicide Basin are recent phenomenon first characterized in 2011. The 2014 event resulted in record river stage and moderate flooding on the Mendenhall River in Juneau. Recognizing that these events can adversely impact residential areas of Juneau's Mendenhall Valley, the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center developed a real-time modeling technique capable of forecasting the timing and magnitude of the flood-wave crest due to releases from Suicide Basin. The 2014 event was estimated at about 37,000 acre feet with water levels cresting within 36 hours from the time the flood wave hit Mendenhall Lake. Given the magnitude of possible impacts to the public, accurate hydrological forecasting is essential for public safety and Emergency Managers. However, the data needed to effectively forecast magnitudes of specific jökulhlaup events are limited. Estimating this event as related to river stage depended upon three variables: 1) the timing of the lag between Suicide Basin water level declines and the related rise of Mendenhall Lake, 2) continuous monitoring of Mendenhall Lake water levels, and 3) estimating the total water volume stored in Suicide Basin. Real-time modeling of the event utilized a Time of Concentration hydrograph with independent power equations representing the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph. The initial accuracy of the model — as forecasted about 24 hours prior to crest — resulted in an estimated crest within 0.5 feet of the actual with a timing error of about six hours later than the actual crest.

Turbulence measurements in the vicinity of a strong polar jet during POLSTRACC/GWLCYCLE II/SALSA, 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramberger, Martina; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Rapp, Markus; Gemsa, Steffen; Raynor, Kevin

2017-04-01

In January 2016, the combined POLar STRAtosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC), Investigation of the life cycle of gravity waves (GW-LCYCLE) II and Seasonality of Air mass transport and origin in the Lowermost Stratosphere (SALSA) campaign, shortly abbreviated as PGS, took place in Kiruna, Sweden. During this campaign, on 31 January 2016, a strong polar jet with horizontal wind speeds up to 100 m/s was located above northern Great Britain. The research flight PGS12 lead the High Altitude LOng range (HALO) aircraft right above the jet streak of this polar jet, a region which is known from theoretical studies for prevalent turbulence. Here, we present a case study in which high-resolution in-situ aircraft measurements are employed to analyse and quantify turbulence in the described region with parameters such as e.g. turbulent kinetic energy and the eddy dissipation rate. This analysis is supported by idealized numerical simulations to determine involved processes for the generation of turbulence. Complementing, forecasts and operational analyses of the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used to thoroughly analyze the meteorological situation.

Near-Field Tsunami Models with Rapid Earthquake Source Inversions from Land and Ocean-Based Observations: The Potential for Forecast and Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.

2013-12-01

Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is achieved. This is an indirect approach to tsunami warning, it relies on automatic determination of the earthquake source prior to tsunami simulation. It is more robust than ad-hoc approaches because it relies on computation of a finite-extent centroid moment tensor to objectively determine the style of faulting and the fault plane geometry on which to launch the heterogeneous static slip inversion. Operator interaction and physical assumptions are minimal. Thus, the approach can provide the initial conditions for tsunami simulation (seafloor motion) irrespective of the type of earthquake source and relies heavily on oceanic wave gauge measurements for source determination. It reliably distinguishes among strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting events, all of which have been observed recently to occur in subduction zones and pose distinct tsunami hazards.

Evaluation of the Ability of S2S and NMME Models to Predict Heat Waves Following Drought Events in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, T.; Dirmeyer, P.

2016-12-01

The influence of antecedent drought conditions on the onset of heat waves in North America is important as the establishment of past heat wave events has been connected to both advection of warm, dry air and limitation of local moisture recycling due to dry soils. The strong connection between the land surface and subsequent extreme heat offers promise that realistic soil moisture initialization could improve model forecast skill. However, there is still a lack of consensus about the (1) the role of antecedent drought conditions in forcing heat waves over North America and (2) the ability of numerical forecast models to predict extreme heat events at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. For this project, we use atmospheric reanalysis datasets to establish the connection between drought and subsequent extreme heat events. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), computed over 30-, 60-, and 90-day intervals, is used to identify drought events, while the excess heat factor defines subsequent heat wave events. We focus on heat waves immediately following drought periods, including events coinciding with but not beginning prior to the start of drought, as well as heat wave events beginning no more than 3 days after the demise of a drought event. Hindcasts from individual model ensemble members of the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project and the Phase II of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are assessed with regard to heat wave prediction. Each individual S2S and NMME ensemble member is evaluated to determine if their respective hindcasts are able to capture/predict heat wave events identified in the reanalysis products.

Detection of Ionospheric Alfven Resonator Signatures in the Equatorial Ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simoes, Fernando; Klenzing, Jeffrey; Ivanov, Stoyan; Pfaff, Robert; Freudenreich, Henry; Bilitza, Dieter; Rowland, Douglas; Bromund, Kenneth; Liebrecht, Maria Carmen; Martin, Steven;

Increasing the Reliability of Circulation Model Validation: Quantifying Drifter Slip to See how Currents are Actually Moving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, T.

2016-02-01

Ocean circulation forecasts can help answer questions regarding larval dispersal, passive movement of injured sea animals, oil spill mitigation, and search and rescue efforts. Circulation forecasts are often validated with GPS-tracked drifter paths, but how accurately do these drifters actually move with ocean currents? Drifters are not only moved by water, but are also forced by wind and waves acting on the exposed buoy and transmitter; this imperfect movement is referred to as drifter slip. The quantification and further understanding of drifter slip will allow scientists to differentiate between drifter imperfections and actual computer model error when comparing trajectory forecasts with actual drifter tracks. This will avoid falsely accrediting all discrepancies between a trajectory forecast and an actual drifter track to computer model error. During multiple deployments of drifters in Nantucket Sound and using observed wind and wave data, we attempt to quantify the slip of drifters developed by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center's (NEFSC) Student Drifters Program. While similar studies have been conducted previously, very few have directly attached current meters to drifters to quantify drifter slip. Furthermore, none have quantified slip of NEFSC drifters relative to the oceanographic-standard "CODE" drifter. The NEFSC drifter archive has over 1000 drifter tracks primarily off the New England coast. With a better understanding of NEFSC drifter slip, modelers can reliably use these tracks for model validation.

Increasing the Reliability of Circulation Model Validation: Quantifying Drifter Slip to See how Currents are Actually Moving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, T.

2015-12-01

Ocean circulation forecasts can help answer questions regarding larval dispersal, passive movement of injured sea animals, oil spill mitigation, and search and rescue efforts. Circulation forecasts are often validated with GPS-tracked drifter paths, but how accurately do these drifters actually move with ocean currents? Drifters are not only moved by water, but are also forced by wind and waves acting on the exposed buoy and transmitter; this imperfect movement is referred to as drifter slip. The quantification and further understanding of drifter slip will allow scientists to differentiate between drifter imperfections and actual computer model error when comparing trajectory forecasts with actual drifter tracks. This will avoid falsely accrediting all discrepancies between a trajectory forecast and an actual drifter track to computer model error. During multiple deployments of drifters in Nantucket Sound and using observed wind and wave data, we attempt to quantify the slip of drifters developed by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center's (NEFSC) Student Drifters Program. While similar studies have been conducted previously, very few have directly attached current meters to drifters to quantify drifter slip. Furthermore, none have quantified slip of NEFSC drifters relative to the oceanographic-standard "CODE" drifter. The NEFSC drifter archive has over 1000 drifter tracks primarily off the New England coast. With a better understanding of NEFSC drifter slip, modelers can reliably use these tracks for model validation.

Analysis and numerical study of inertia-gravity waves generated by convection in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evan, Stephanie

2011-12-01

Gravity waves transport momentum and energy upward from the troposphere and by dissipation affect the large-scale structure of the middle atmosphere. An accurate representation of these waves in climate models is important for climate studies, but is still a challenge for most global and climate models. In the tropics, several studies have shown that mesoscale gravity waves and intermediate scale inertia-gravity waves play an important role in the dynamics of the upper atmosphere. Despite observational evidence for the importance of forcing of the tropical circulation by inertia-gravity waves, their exact properties and forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation are not fully understood. In this thesis, properties of tropical inertia-gravity waves are investigated using radiosonde data from the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) dataset and high-resolution numerical experiments. Few studies have characterized inertia-gravity wave properties using radiosonde profiles collected on a campaign basis. We first examine the properties of intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves observed during the 2006 TWP-ICE campaign in Australia. We show that the total vertical flux of horizontal momentum associated with the waves is of the same order of magnitude as previous observations of Kelvin waves. This constitutes evidence for the importance of the forcing of the tropical circulation by intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves. Then, we focus on the representation of inertia-gravity waves in analysis data. The wave event observed during TWP-ICE is also present in the ECMWF data. A comparison between the characteristics of the inertia-gravity wave derived with the ECMWF data to the properties of the wave derived with the radiosonde data shows that the ECMWF data capture similar structure for this wave event but with a larger vertical wavelength. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system is used to understand the representation of the wave event in the ECMWF data. The model is configured as a tropical channel with a high top at 1 hPa. WRF is used with the same horizontal resolution (˜ 40 km) as the operational ECMWF in 2006 while using a finer vertical grid-spacing than ECMWF. Different experiments are performed to determine the sensitivity of the wave structure to cumulus schemes, initial conditions and vertical resolution. We demonstrate that high vertical resolution would be required for ECMWF to accurately resolve the vertical structure of inertia-gravity waves and their effect on the middle atmosphere circulation. Lastly we perform WRF simulations in January 2006 and 2007 to assess gravity wave forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation. In these simulations a large part of the gravity wave spectrum is explicitly simulated. The WRF model is able to reproduce the evolution of the mean tropical stratospheric zonal wind when compared to observational data and the ECMWF reanalysis. It is shown that gravity waves account for 60% up to 80% of the total wave forcing of the tropical stratospheric circulation. We also compute wave forcing associated with intermediate-scale inertiagravity waves. In the WRF simulations this wave type represents ˜ 30% of the total gravity wave forcing. This suggests that intermediate-scale inertia-gravity waves can play an important role in the tropical middle-atmospheric circulation. In addition, the WRF high-resolution simulations are used to provide some guidance for constraining gravity wave parameterizations in coarse-grid climate models.

An Overview of Scientific and Space Weather Results from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfaff, R.; de la Beaujardiere, O.; Hunton, D.; Heelis, R.; Earle, G.; Strauss, P.; Bernhardt, P.

2012-01-01

The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission of the Air Force Research Laboratory is described. C/NOFS science objectives may be organized into three categories: (1) to understand physical processes active in the background ionosphere and thermosphere in which plasma instabilities grow; (2) to identify mechanisms that trigger or quench the plasma irregularities responsible for signal degradation; and (3) to determine how the plasma irregularities affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves. The satellite was launched in April, 2008 into a low inclination (13 deg), elliptical (400 x 850 km) orbit. The satellite sensors measure the following parameters in situ: ambient and fluctuating electron densities, AC and DC electric and magnetic fields, ion drifts and large scale ion composition, ion and electron temperatures, and neutral winds. C/NOFS is also equipped with a GPS occultation receiver and a radio beacon. In addition to the satellite sensors, complementary ground-based measurements, theory, and advanced modeling techniques are also important parts of the mission. We report scientific and space weather highlights of the mission after nearly four years in orbit

Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route

PubMed Central

Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Ono, Jun; Dethloff, Klaus; Maturilli, Marion; Neuber, Roland; Edwards, Patti; Yamaguchi, Hajime

2015-01-01

During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. PMID:26585690

Current-wave spectra coupling project. Volume II. Hurricane fields and cross sections, surface winds and currents, significant waves and wave spectra for potential OTEC sites: (A) Keahole Point, Hawaii, 100 year hurricane; (B) Punta Tuna, Puerto Rico, 100 year hurricane; (C) New Orleans, Louisiana, 100 year hurricane; (D) West Coast of Florida, 100 year hurricane; and for (E) Hurricane Camille (1969) off Louisiana Coast. Technical support for Volume I. [HURICA1 and HURICA2 codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bretschneider, C.L.; Huang, T.S.; Endo, H.

1980-07-01

This volume represents the details of the technical development of and the calibration of the two-directional three parameter wave forecasting relationships, which are specially adapted for forecasting hurricane significant wave height, H/sub s/, modal wave period f/sub 0//sup -1/ and the peak of the wave spectrum, S/sub max/. These three parameters lead to the determination of the three-parameter wave spectrum which has been verified by use of hurricane wind generated wave spectra from Hurricane Eloise (1975). The hurricane wind field is still based on the original US Weather Service model as given by Meyers (1954). Hurricane winds, waves and wavemore » spectra data from Hurricane Eloise (1975) published by Withee and Johnson, NOAA (1975), have been used. Although the data is of an analyzed form, the term raw data was used as distinguished from smoothed data. An analysis of the raw data is presented in this volume, and considerable sense of the analysis has been made. A weighted average technique was not used, but could have reduced the scatter in the so-called raw data during the first 2/3 of the storm when the winds and waves were less than gale force and quite variable. There is considerably less variability in the wind and wave data when the wind reaches gale force, and these are the data for which the greatest emphasis is given in the analysis. (WHK)« less

Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

2017-12-01

The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

A low-order model for long-range infrasound propagation in random atmospheric waveguides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millet, C.; Lott, F.

2014-12-01

In numerical modeling of long-range infrasound propagation in the atmosphere, the wind and temperature profiles are usually obtained as a result of matching atmospheric models to empirical data. The atmospheric models are classically obtained from operational numerical weather prediction centers (NOAA Global Forecast System or ECMWF Integrated Forecast system) as well as atmospheric climate reanalysis activities and thus, do not explicitly resolve atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The GWs are generally too small to be represented in Global Circulation Models, and their effects on the resolved scales need to be parameterized in order to account for fine-scale atmospheric inhomogeneities (for length scales less than 100 km). In the present approach, the sound speed profiles are considered as random functions, obtained by superimposing a stochastic GW field on the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim. The spectral domain is binned by a large number of monochromatic GWs, and the breaking of each GW is treated independently from the others. The wave equation is solved using a reduced-order model, starting from the classical normal mode technique. We focus on the asymptotic behavior of the transmitted waves in the weakly heterogeneous regime (for which the coupling between the wave and the medium is weak), with a fixed number of propagating modes that can be obtained by rearranging the eigenvalues by decreasing Sobol indices. The most important feature of the stochastic approach lies in the fact that the model order (i.e. the number of relevant eigenvalues) can be computed to satisfy a given statistical accuracy whatever the frequency. As the low-order model preserves the overall structure of waveforms under sufficiently small perturbations of the profile, it can be applied to sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. The gain in CPU cost provided by the low-order model is essential for extracting statistical information from simulations. The statistics of a transmitted broadband pulse are computed by decomposing the original pulse into a sum of modal pulses that propagate with different phase speeds and can be described by a front pulse stabilization theory. The method is illustrated on two large-scale infrasound calibration experiments, that were conducted at the Sayarim Military Range, Israel, in 2009 and 2011.

Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storer, Luke N.; Williams, Paul D.; Gill, Philip G.

2018-03-01

Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.

Medical weather forecast as the risk management facilities of meteopathia with population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efimenko, Natalya; Chalaya, Elena; Povolotskaia, Nina; Senik, Irina; Topuriya, David

2013-04-01

Frequent cases of extreme deviations of weather conditions and anthropogenic press on the Earth atmosphere are external stressors and provoke the development of meteopathic reactions (DMR) with people suffering from dysadaptation (DA). [EGU2011-6740-3; EGU2012-6103]. The influence of weather factors on the person is multivariate which complicates the search of physiological indicators of this exposure. The results of long-term researches of meteodependence and risks development of weather-conditional pathologic reactions with people suffering from DA (1640 observed people) in various systems and human body subsystems (thermal control, cardiovascular, respiratory, vegetative and central nervous systems) were taken as a principle of calculation methodology of estimation of weather pathogenicity (EWP). This estimation is used in the system of medical weather forecast (MWF) in the resorts of Caucasian Mineral Waters and is marked as an organized structure in prevention of DMR risks. Nowadays MWF efficiency is from 78% to 95% as it depends not only on the performance of models of dynamic, synoptic, heliogeophysical forecasts, but also on the underestimation of environmental factors which often act as dominating stressors. The program of atmospheric global system monitoring and real-time forecasts doesn`t include atmospheric electricity factors, ionization factors, range and chemistry factors of aerosol particles and organic volatile plant matters in atmospheric boundary layer. New fractality researches of control mechanisms processes providing adaptation to external and internal environmental conditions with patients suffering from DA allowed us to understand the meaning of the phenomenon of structural similarity and similarity of physiological response processes to the influence of weather types with similar dominating environmental factors. Particularly, atmospheric conditions should be regarded as stressor natural factors that create deionization conditions of the surface atmosphere. The correlation of the results of the research of external respiration function, cardiovascular and central nervous systems with people suffering from DA (187 people) made in days with favorable weathers, but different in natural anion quantity in the surface atmosphere, allowed us to develop similar physiological processes at the phenomena of natural deionization. When the anions amount reduces from 1255±38 ion/cm3 to 190±13 ion/cm3, we have detected the increase of tension of vegetative index (from 458±24 to 802±44), the decrease in efficiency of neurohumoral regulation (from 0,25±0,08 to 0,06±0,02), the increase of spectrum excitability of cortical activity in the wave range of delta 0 0.4 Hz by 29%, the decrease in cortical activity in the wave range of theta 4 … 8 Hz, alpha 8 … 13 Hz beta 13 … 19 Hz, gamma 19 … 25Hz by 4-10%; the decrease in organism adaptation layer by 14% and integrated health indicator by 18%. We have also detected similar processes in cardiovascular and respiratory systems. So the problem of creation of high-quality system of medical weather forecast for the population demands the performance of interdisciplinary researches in the field of medicine, biology, meteorology and the development of DMR risk management programs at various natural and anthropogenic stressors. The studies were performed by support of the Program "Basic Sciences for Medicine" and RFBR project No.10-05-01014_a.

Real time hydro-metereological hazards monitoring system for the Ravenna municipality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertoni, W.; Cattarossi, A.; Gonella, M.

2003-04-01

The Ravenna municipality (Italy, Emilia Romagna region), through a cooperative agreement with ENI S.p.A’s., AGIP division, is carrying out a research study for the development of a real time monitoring system of hydro-meteorological conditions. The system aims to support the city Crisis Response Unit to provide more efficient support all over the municipal territory that is the largest in Italy with more than 700 km2. The support unit, a GIS computer based application, directly links to a broad range of sources, gathering real time information from a Local Area Model (meteorological data), a Wave Model (sea hydrodynamic circulation), monitoring stations, located partially on the Adriatic sea (AGIP offshore platform, SIMN) and partially over the Ravenna inland (SPDS, SIN). In the first phase, now completed and undergoing testing, this vast and diversified collection of data feeds a number of statistical models with up to 72 hours of forecast capabilities. The GIS application displays actual and forecast sea conditions offshore of Ravenna littorals in addition to actual and forecast flood conditions along the Ravenna Province inland. Model generated data are used for the forecast, which is then calibrated using the measured data. When the predefined warning limits are exceeded, end users are alerted via prerecorded phone messages, SMS, or visually through the direct or remote interaction with the GIS system (remotely accessible via portable computers). In the second stage, the statistical approach will be substituted by a more deterministic approach. A coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model will be used to forecast water stages along rivers and runoff volume along major watersheds. Moreover, already functioning capabilities allows direct control of remote monitoring points (stream and rain gages, etc.) The entire Real Time Monitoring System was developed on a GIS platform. The GEOdatabase, a relational database based on MSDE technology, is the core of the application which revolves around the conceptualization of a Hydro Data Model, a standardized way to store hydraulic based data such as watershed delineation, hydrologic network, monitoring points and time series data. Recent advancement in GIS software technologies and ready to use hydro-meteorological data offer an unprecedented opportunity to customize the GIS application and provide a powerful application to prevent and defeat flood hazards.

Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2015-05-01

Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

A new method for evaluating impacts of data assimilation with respect to tropical cyclone intensity forecast problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukicevic, T.; Uhlhorn, E.; Reasor, P.; Klotz, B.

2012-12-01

A significant potential for improving numerical model forecast skill of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity by assimilation of airborne inner core observations in high resolution models has been demonstrated in recent studies. Although encouraging , the results so far have not provided clear guidance on the critical information added by the inner core data assimilation with respect to the intensity forecast skill. Better understanding of the relationship between the intensity forecast and the value added by the assimilation is required to further the progress, including the assimilation of satellite observations. One of the major difficulties in evaluating such a relationship is the forecast verification metric of TC intensity: the maximum one-minute sustained wind speed at 10 m above surface. The difficulty results from two issues : 1) the metric refers to a practically unobservable quantity since it is an extreme value in a highly turbulent, and spatially-extensive wind field and 2) model- and observation-based estimates of this measure are not compatible in terms of spatial and temporal scales, even in high-resolution models. Although the need for predicting the extreme value of near surface wind is well justified, and the observation-based estimates that are used in practice are well thought of, a revised metric for the intensity is proposed for the purpose of numerical forecast evaluation and the impacts on the forecast. The metric should enable a robust observation- and model-resolvable and phenomenologically-based evaluation of the impacts. It is shown that the maximum intensity could be represented in terms of decomposition into deterministic and stochastic components of the wind field. Using the vortex-centric cylindrical reference frame, the deterministic component is defined as the sum of amplitudes of azimuthal wave numbers 0 and 1 at the radius of maximum wind, whereas the stochastic component is represented by a non-Gaussian PDF. This decomposition is exact and fully independent of individual TC properties. The decomposition of the maximum wind intensity was first evaluated using several sources of data including Step Frequency Microwave Radiometer surface wind speeds from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance flights,NOAA P-3 Tail Doppler Radar measurements, and best track maximum intensity estimates as well as the simulations from Hurricane WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) experiments for 83 real data cases. The results confirmed validity of the method: the stochastic component of the maximum exibited a non-Gaussian PDF with small mean amplitude and variance that was comparable to the known best track error estimates. The results of the decomposition were then used to evaluate the impact of the improved initial conditions on the forecast. It was shown that the errors in the deterministic component of the intensity had the dominant effect on the forecast skill for the studied cases. This result suggests that the data assimilation of the inner core observations could focus primarily on improving the analysis of wave number 0 and 1 initial structure and on the mechanisms responsible for forcing the evolution of this low-wavenumber structure. For the latter analysis, the assimilation of airborne and satellite remote sensing observations could play significant role.

A multi-model assessment of the impact of currents, waves and wind in modelling surface drifters and oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Dominicis, M.; Bruciaferri, D.; Gerin, R.; Pinardi, N.; Poulain, P. M.; Garreau, P.; Zodiatis, G.; Perivoliotis, L.; Fazioli, L.; Sorgente, R.; Manganiello, C.

2016-11-01

Validation of oil spill forecasting systems suffers from a lack of data due to the scarcity of oil slick in situ and satellite observations. Drifters (surface drifting buoys) are often considered as proxy for oil spill to overcome this problem. However, they can have different designs and consequently behave in a different way at sea, making it not straightforward to use them for oil spill model validation purposes and to account for surface currents, waves and wind when modelling them. Stemming from the need to validate the MEDESS4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety) multi-model oil spill prediction system, which allows access to several ocean, wave and meteorological operational model forecasts, an exercise at sea was carried out to collect a consistent dataset of oil slick satellite observations, in situ data and trajectories of different type of drifters. The exercise, called MEDESS4MS Serious Game 1 (SG1), took place in the Elba Island region (Western Mediterranean Sea) during May 2014. Satellite images covering the MEDESS4MS SG1 exercise area were acquired every day and, in the case an oil spill was observed from satellite, vessels of the Italian Coast Guard (ITCG) were sent in situ to confirm the presence of the pollution. During the exercise one oil slick was found in situ and drifters, with different water-following characteristics, were effectively deployed into the oil slick and then monitored in the following days. Although it was not possible to compare the oil slick and drifter trajectories due to a lack of satellite observations of the same oil slick in the following days, the oil slick observations in situ and drifters trajectories were used to evaluate the quality of MEDESS4MS multi-model currents, waves and winds by using the MEDSLIK-II oil spill model. The response of the drifters to surface ocean currents, different Stokes drift parameterizations and wind drag has been examined. We found that the surface ocean currents mainly drive the transport of completely submerged drifters. The accuracy of the simulations increases with higher resolution currents and with addition of the Stokes drift, which is better estimated when provided by wave models. The wind drag improves the modelling of drifter trajectories only in the case of partially emerged drifters, otherwise it leads to an incorrect reproduction of the drifters' direction, which is particularly evident in high speed wind conditions.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

2012-01-01

The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

2011-12-01

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

2014-12-01

Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of the TCIS interactive data portal and analysis tools, including the spatial database technology for the representation and query of the level 2 satellite data, the automatic process flow using web services, the interactive user interface using the Google Earth API, and a common and expandable Python wrapper to invoke the analysis tools.

A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Baker, Wayman E.; Pfaendtner, James; Corrigan, Martin

1988-01-01

From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal outlook while providing useful information to users and partners. We demonstrate the first version of an operational GloFAS seasonal outlook, outlining the model set-up and presenting a first look at the seasonal forecasts that will be displayed in the GloFAS interface, and discuss the initial results of the forecast evaluation.

Long-Range Statistical Forecasting of Korean Summer Precipitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

in the equatorial Pacific during ENLN periods leads to tropical and extratropical atmospheric 10 circulation anomalies (e.g., Ford 2000). Part of...characteristic extratropical anomalies that occur during EN and LN events. Sardeshmukh and Hoskins (1988) proposed a mechanism by which anomalous tropical...forcing could induce an extratropical Rossby wave train response. Nitta (1987) and others identified a Rossby wave train response to off-equatorial

Numerical simulation and analysis of impact of non-orographic gravity waves drag of middle atmosphere in framework of a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Wang, S.

2017-12-01

Gravity wave drag (GWD) is among the drivers of meridional overturning in the middle atmosphere, also known as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, and of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The small spatial scales and complications due to wave breaking require their effects to be parameterised. GWD parameterizations are usually divided into two parts, orographic and non-orographic. The basic dynamical and physical processes of the middle atmosphere and the mechanism of the interactions between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere were studied in the frame of a general circulation model. The model for the troposphere was expanded to a global model considering middle atmosphere with the capability of describing the basic processes in the middle atmosphere and the troposphere-middle atmosphere interactions. Currently, it is too costly to include full non-hydrostatic and rotational wave dynamics in an operational parameterization. The hydrostatic non-rotational wave dynamics which allow an efficient implementation that is suitably fast for operation. The simplified parameterization of non-orographic GWD follows from the WM96 scheme in which a framework is developed using conservative propagation of gravity waves, critical level filtering, and non-linear dissipation. In order to simulate and analysis the influence of non-orographic GWD on the stratospheric wind and temperature fields, experiments using Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) event case occurred in January 2013 were carried out, and results of objective weather forecast verifications of the two months period were compared in detail. The verification of monthly mean of forecast anomaly correlation (ACC) and root mean square (RMS) errors shows consistently positive impact of non-orographic GWD on skill score of forecasting for the three to eight days, both in the stratosphere and troposphere, and visible positive impact on prediction of the stratospheric wind and temperature fields. Numerical simulation during SSW event demonstrates that the influence on the temperature of middle stratosphere is mainly positive and there were larger departure both for the wind and temperature fields considering the non-orographic GWD during the warming process.

Weather forecasting expert system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

SYSTEM CFS CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM NAQFC NAQFC MODEL GEFS GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM HWRF HURRICANE WEATHER RESEARCH and FORECASTING HMON HMON - OPERATIONAL HURRICANE FORECASTING WAVEWATCH III WAVEWATCH III

Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abhik, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Salunke, Kiran D.; Dhakate, Ashish R.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2016-05-01

The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere-ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further explains the possible reasons behind the realistic simulation of northward propagating BSISO in CFS T382, even though the model shows substantial biases in simulating mean state and other BSISO modes.

Seismic imaging of the Sun's far hemisphere and its applications in space weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsey, Charles; Braun, Douglas

2017-06-01

The interior of the Sun is filled acoustic waves with periods of about 5 min. These waves, called "p modes," are understood to be excited by convection in a thin layer beneath the Sun's surface. The p modes cause seismic ripples, which we call "the solar oscillations." Helioseismic observatories use Doppler observations to map these oscillations, both spatially and temporally. The p modes propagate freely throughout the solar interior, reverberating between the near and far hemispheres. They also interact strongly with active regions at the surfaces of both hemispheres, carrying the signatures of said interactions with them. Computational analysis of the solar oscillations mapped in the Sun's near hemisphere, applying basic principles of wave optics to model the implied p modes propagating through the solar interior, gives us seismic maps of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere. These seismic maps are useful for space weather forecasting. For the past decade, NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft have given us full coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere in electromagnetic (EUV) radiation from the far side of Earth's orbit about the Sun. We are now approaching a decade during which the STEREO spacecraft will lose their farside vantage. There will occur significant periods from thence during which electromagnetic coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere will be incomplete or nil. Solar seismology will make it possible to continue our monitor of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere for the needs of space weather forecasters during these otherwise blind periods.

Seismic imaging of the Sun's far hemisphere and its applications in space weather forecasting.

PubMed

Lindsey, Charles; Braun, Douglas

2017-06-01

The interior of the Sun is filled acoustic waves with periods of about 5 min. These waves, called " p modes," are understood to be excited by convection in a thin layer beneath the Sun's surface. The p modes cause seismic ripples, which we call "the solar oscillations." Helioseismic observatories use Doppler observations to map these oscillations, both spatially and temporally. The p modes propagate freely throughout the solar interior, reverberating between the near and far hemispheres. They also interact strongly with active regions at the surfaces of both hemispheres, carrying the signatures of said interactions with them. Computational analysis of the solar oscillations mapped in the Sun's near hemisphere, applying basic principles of wave optics to model the implied p modes propagating through the solar interior, gives us seismic maps of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere. These seismic maps are useful for space weather forecasting. For the past decade, NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft have given us full coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere in electromagnetic (EUV) radiation from the far side of Earth's orbit about the Sun. We are now approaching a decade during which the STEREO spacecraft will lose their farside vantage. There will occur significant periods from thence during which electromagnetic coverage of the Sun's far hemisphere will be incomplete or nil. Solar seismology will make it possible to continue our monitor of large active regions in the Sun's far hemisphere for the needs of space weather forecasters during these otherwise blind periods.

Potential to kinetic energy conversion in wave number domain for the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, H.-J.; Vincent, D. G.

1984-01-01

Preliminary results of a wave number study conducted for the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) using FGGE data for the period January 10-27, 1979 are reported. In particular, three variables (geomagnetic height, z, vertical p-velocity, omega, and temperature, T) and one energy conversion quantity, omega-alpha (where alpha is the specific volume), are shown. It is demonstrated that wave number 4 plays an important role in the conversion from available potential energy to kinetic energy in the Southern Hemisphere tropics, particularly in the vicinity of the SPCZ. It is therefore suggested that the development and movement of wave number 4 waves be carefully monitored in making forecasts for the South Pacific region.

A multidisciplinary system for monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltelli, Mauro; Prestifilippo, Michele; Spata, Gaetano; Scollo, Simona; Andronico, Daniele

2010-05-01

One of the most active volcanoes in the world is Mt. Etna, in Italy, characterized by frequent explosive activity from the central craters and from fractures opened along the volcano flanks which, during the last years, caused several damages to aviation and forced the closure of the Catania International Airport. To give precise warning to the aviation authorities and air traffic controller and to assist the work of VAACs, a novel system for monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, was developed at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Catania, the managing institution for the surveillance of Etna volcano. Monitoring is carried out using multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite able to track the volcanic plume with a high time resolution, visual and thermal cameras used to monitor the explosive activity, three continuous wave X-band disdrometers which detect ash dispersal and fallout, sounding balloons used to evaluate the atmospheric fields, and finally field data collected after the end of the eruptive event needed to extrapolate important features of explosive activity. Forecasting is carried out daily using automatic procedures which download weather forecast data obtained by meteorological mesoscale models from the Italian Air Force national Meteorological Office and from the hydrometeorological service of ARPA-SIM; run four different tephra dispersal models using input parameters obtained by the analysis of the deposits collected after few hours since the eruptive event similar to 22 July 1998, 21-24 July 2001 and 2002-03 Etna eruptions; plot hazard maps on ground and in air and finally publish them on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. The system has been already tested successfully during several explosive events occurring at Etna in 2006, 2007 and 2008. These events produced eruption columns high up to several kilometers above sea level and, on the basis of parameters such as mass eruption rate and total grain-size distributions, showed different explosive style. The monitoring and forecasting system is going on developing through the installation of new instruments able to detect different features of the volcanic plumes (e.g. the dispersal and sedimentation processes) in order to reduce the uncertainty of the input parameters used in the modeling. This is crucial to perform a reliable forecasting. We show that multidisciplinary approaches can really give useful information on the presence of volcanic ash and consequently to prevent damages and airport disruptions.

Evaluating the improvements of the BOLAM meteorological model operational at ISPRA: A case study approach - preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Lastoria, B.; Accadia, C.; Flavoni, S.

2009-04-01

The Institute for Environmental Protection and Research - ISPRA (former Agency for Environmental Protection and Technical Services - APAT) runs operationally since 2000 an integrated meteo-marine forecasting chain, named the Hydro-Meteo-Marine Forecasting System (Sistema Idro-Meteo-Mare - SIMM), formed by a cascade of four numerical models, telescoping from the Mediterranean basin to the Venice Lagoon, and initialized by means of analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The operational integrated system consists of a meteorological model, the parallel verision of BOlogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM), coupled over the Mediterranean sea with a WAve Model (WAM), a high-resolution shallow-water model of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea, namely the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), and a finite-element version of the same model (VL-FEM) on the Venice Lagoon, aimed to forecast the acqua alta events. Recently, the physically based, fully distributed, rainfall-runoff TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model has been integrated into the system, coupled to BOLAM, over two river basins, located in the central and northeastern part of Italy, respectively. However, at the present time, this latter part of the forecasting chain is not operational and it is used in a research configuration. BOLAM was originally implemented in 2000 onto the Quadrics parallel supercomputer (and for this reason referred to as QBOLAM, as well) and only at the end of 2006 it was ported (together with the other operational marine models of the forecasting chain) onto the Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI) Altix 8-processor machine. In particular, due to the Quadrics implementation, the Kuo scheme was formerly implemented into QBOLAM for the cumulus convection parameterization. On the contrary, when porting SIMM onto the Altix Linux cluster, it was achievable to implement into QBOLAM the more advanced convection parameterization by Kain and Fritsch. A fully updated serial version of the BOLAM code has been recently acquired. Code improvements include a more precise advection scheme (Weighted Average Flux); explicit advection of five hydrometeors, and state-of-the-art parameterization schemes for radiation, convection, boundary layer turbulence and soil processes (also with possible choice among different available schemes). The operational implementation of the new code into the SIMM model chain, which requires the development of a parallel version, will be achieved during 2009. In view of this goal, the comparative verification of the different model versions' skill represents a fundamental task. On this purpose, it has been decided to evaluate the performance improvement of the new BOLAM code (in the available serial version, hereinafter BOLAM 2007) with respect to the version with the Kain-Fritsch scheme (hereinafter KF version) and to the older one employing the Kuo scheme (hereinafter Kuo version). In the present work, verification of precipitation forecasts from the three BOLAM versions is carried on in a case study approach. The intense rainfall episode occurred on 10th - 17th December 2008 over Italy has been considered. This event produced indeed severe damages in Rome and its surrounding areas. Objective and subjective verification methods have been employed in order to evaluate model performance against an observational dataset including rain gauge observations and satellite imagery. Subjective comparison of observed and forecast precipitation fields is suitable to give an overall description of the forecast quality. Spatial errors (e.g., shifting and pattern errors) and rainfall volume error can be assessed quantitatively by means of object-oriented methods. By comparing satellite images with model forecast fields, it is possible to investigate the differences between the evolution of the observed weather system and the predicted ones, and its sensitivity to the improvements in the model code. Finally, the error in forecasting the cyclone evolution can be tentatively related with the precipitation forecast error.

Propagation Route and Speed of Swell in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, C. W.; Li, C. Y.; Pan, J.

2018-01-01

The characteristics of swell propagation play an important role in the forecasting of ocean waves as well as on research on global climate change, wave energy development, and disaster prevention and reduction. To reveal the propagation routes, terminal targets and speeds of swells that originate from the southern Indian Ocean westerly (SIOW), an intraseasonal swell index (SI) was defined based on the 45 year (September 1957 to August 2002) ERA-40 wave reanalysis data product from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results show that the main body of the SIOW-related swells typically spread to the waters off Sri Lanka and Christmas Island, while the branches spread to the Arabian Sea and other waters. The propagation speeds of swells originated in the SIOW were fastest in May and August, followed by November, and were slowest in February. Swells usually required 4-6 days to propagate from the western part of the SIOW to the waters off Sri Lanka and Christmas Island, whereas swells usually required 2-4 days to propagate from the eastern part of the SIOW to the waters off Christmas Island.

Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction Data for Inversely Determining Atmospheric Refractivity in Surface Ducting Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenway, D. P.; Hackett, E.

2017-12-01

Under certain atmospheric refractivity conditions, propagated electromagnetic waves (EM) can become trapped between the surface and the bottom of the atmosphere's mixed layer, which is referred to as surface duct propagation. Being able to predict the presence of these surface ducts can reap many benefits to users and developers of sensing technologies and communication systems because they significantly influence the performance of these systems. However, the ability to directly measure or model a surface ducting layer is challenging due to the high spatial resolution and large spatial coverage needed to make accurate refractivity estimates for EM propagation; thus, inverse methods have become an increasingly popular way of determining atmospheric refractivity. This study uses data from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System developed by the Naval Research Laboratory and instrumented helicopter (helo) measurements taken during the Wallops Island Field Experiment to evaluate the use of ensemble forecasts in refractivity inversions. Helo measurements and ensemble forecasts are optimized to a parametric refractivity model, and three experiments are performed to evaluate whether incorporation of ensemble forecast data aids in more timely and accurate inverse solutions using genetic algorithms. The results suggest that using optimized ensemble members as an initial population for the genetic algorithms generally enhances the accuracy and speed of the inverse solution; however, use of the ensemble data to restrict parameter search space yields mixed results. Inaccurate results are related to parameterization of the ensemble members' refractivity profile and the subsequent extraction of the parameter ranges to limit the search space.

Forecasting and Hindcasting Waves In and Near the Marginal Ice Zone: Wave Modeling and the ONR Sea State Field Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-04-12

non-directional) wave spectra, but we consider the energy at high frequencies to be unreliable, so we only use significant waveheight Hs and dominant...spectral density, N=E/s), which is a function of wavenumber or frequency (k or s), direction (θ), space (x,y), and time (t), with spectral density...Elgar 1987). As the spectra are now co-located in time, space , and frequency , the inversion is simply a minimization process for |logVR(6jvH>w(9

Ionospheric research for space weather service support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

2016-07-01

Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is investigated. The products of the Project web sites at http://www.cbk.waw.pl/rwc and http://www.izmiran.ru/services/iweather are widely used in scientific investigations and numerous applications by the telecommunication and navigation operators and users whose number at the web sites is growing substantially from month to month.

Storm wave buoy equipped with micromechanical inertial unit: Results of development and testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryazin, D. G.; Staroselcev, L. P.; Belova, O. O.; Gleb, K. A.

2017-07-01

The article describes the results of developing a wave buoy to measure the statistical characteristics of waves and the characteristics of directional spectra of three-dimensional waves. The device is designed for long-term measurements lasting up to a season, which can help solve problems in forecasting waves and preventing emergencies from wave impact on offshore platforms, hydraulic structures, and other marine facilities. The measuring unit involves triads of micromechanical gyroscopes, accelerometers, and a three-component magnetometer. A description of the device, results of laboratory research of its characteristics, and bench and full-scale tests are offered. It is noted that to assess the performance characteristics, comparative tests of the Storm wave buoy were conducted with a standard string wave probe installed on an offshore platform. It is shown that the characteristics and capabilities of the wave buoy make it possible to oust foreign devices from the domestic market.

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system, developed for the Ohio River basin, has been improved and expanded to several other regions including the Eastern U.S., Africa and East Asia. The prediction system adopts the traditional Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach, utilizing the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model as the central tool for producing ensemble prediction of soil moisture, snow and streamflow with lead times up to 6-month. VIC is forced by observed meteorology to estimate the hydrological initial condition prior to the forecast, but during the forecast period the atmospheric forcing comes from statistically downscaled, seasonal forecast from dynamic climate models. The seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system is currently producing realtime seasonal hydrologic forecast for these regions on a monthly basis. Using hindcasts from a 19-year period (1981-1999), during which seasonal hindcasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and European Union DEMETER project are available, we evaluate the performance of the forecast system over our forecast regions. The evaluation shows that the prediction system using the current forecast approach is able to produce reliable and accurate precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow predictions. The overall skill is much higher then the traditional ESP. In particular, forecasts based on multiple climate model forecast are more skillful than single model-based forecast. This emphasizes the significant need for producing seasonal climate forecast with multiple climate models for hydrologic applications. Forecast from this system is expected to provide very valuable information about future hydrologic states and associated risks for end users, including water resource management and financial sectors.

An Investigation of Multi-Satellite Stratospheric Measurements on Tropospheric Weather Predictions over Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Min

The troposphere and stratosphere are the two closest atmospheric layers to the Earth's surface. These two layers are separated by the so-called tropopause. On one hand, these two layers are largely distinguished, on the other hand, lots of evidences proved that connections are also existed between these two layers via various dynamical and chemical feedbacks. Both tropospheric and stratospheric waves can propagate through the tropopause and affect the down streams, despite the fact that this propagation of waves is relatively weaker than the internal interactions in both atmospheric layers. Major improvements have been made in numerical weather predictions (NWP) via data assimilation (DA) in the past 30 years. From optimal interpolation to variational methods and Kalman Filter, great improvements are also made in the development of DA technology. The availability of assimilating satellite radiance observation and the increasing amount of satellite measurements enabled the generation of better atmospheric initials for both global and regional NWP systems. The selection of DA schemes is critical for regional NWP systems. The performance of three major data assimilation (3D-Var, Hybrid, and EnKF) schemes on regional weather forecasts over the continental United States during winter and summer is investigated. Convergence rate in the variational methods can be slightly accelerated especially in summer by the inclusion of ensembles. When the regional model lid is set at 50-mb, larger improvements (10˜20%) in the initials are obtained over the tropopause and lower troposphere. Better forecast skills (˜10%) are obtained in all three DA schemes in summer. Among these three DA schemes, slightly better (˜1%) forecast skills are obtained in Hybrid configuration than 3D-Var. Overall better forecast skills are obtained in summer via EnKF scheme. An extra 22% skill in predicting summer surface pressure but 10% less skills in winter are given by EnKF when compared to 3D-Var. The different forecast skills obtained between variational methods and EnKF are mainly due to the opposite incremental features over ocean and mountainous regions and the inclusion of ensembles. Diurnal variations are observed in predictions. Variations in temperature and humidity are mainly produced by the one-time assimilation in a day and the variations in wind predictions are mainly come from model systematic errors. The assimilation of microwave and infrared satellite measurements alone is compared. Compared to microwave measurements, less than 1% extra performance skill is obtained over the tropopause when infrared measurements are assimilated alone. Large differences are observed in winter analysis when Hybrid scheme is applied. Compared to infrared measurements, an averaged extra 5% performance skill is obtained when microwave measurements are assimilated alone. Predictions made by microwave configuration (MW) shows an extra 3% forecast skill than infrared configuration (IR) at early forecasts. Major differences between MW and IR are located over the tropopause and lower troposphere. Extra 3% and 15% forecast skills for the tropopause wind and temperature are obtained by assimilating microwave measurements alone, respectively. Infrared measurements show slightly better forecast skills at lower troposphere at later forecast lead times. The impacts of the extended stratospheric layers by raising regional model lid from 50-mb to 10-mb and then to 1-mb and the assimilated stratospheric satellite measurements on tropospheric weather predictions are explored in the last section. An extra 10% performance skill over the initial tropopause is obtained by extending the model top to 1-mb. Significant improvements (15˜50%) in initials are obtained over tropopause and lower troposphere by assimilating stratospheric measurements. In the predictions, the stratospheric information can propagate through the tropopause layers and affect the lower troposphere after 2-3 days' propagation. The major improvements made by the extended stratospheric layers and measurements are located in the tropopause. An averaged extra 5% forecast skill is obtained by raising the model lid from 10-mb to 1-mb. An extra 7% forecast skill is obtained in the tropospheric humidity by assimilating stratospheric measurements. Significant improvements in the tropopause and tropospheric predictions are observed when multi-satellite stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb are assimilated in regional NWP system. Major positive impacts on the tropospheric weather predictions are observed in the first 72-h forecast lead times due to the downward propagation of the microwave stratospheric measurements. A two-season comparison study shows that the assimilation of microwave stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb will lead to an adjusted stratospheric temperature distribution which may related to an adjusted BDC. Small impacts on the tropospheric general circulations are also found. The tropospheric forecast skills are slightly improved in response to the stratospheric initial conditions and adjusted tropospheric general circulations. For the prediction of heavy precipitation events, an extra 14% forecast skill is obtained when the microwave stratospheric measurements extend to 1-mb are assimilated. The results obtained in this thesis indicate that the assimilation of satellite microwave measurements has the advantages for short-term regional weather forecast using ensemble related data assimilation scheme. Also, this thesis proposed that the assimilation of microwave stratospheric measurements extended to 1-mb can slightly improve the tropospheric weather forecast skills as a result of the tropospheric general circulations responded to the adjusted stratospheric initials.

A framework for improving a seasonal hydrological forecasting system using sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul; Cloke, Hannah

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are of great value for the socio-economic sector, for applications such as navigation, flood and drought mitigation and reservoir management for hydropower generation and water allocation to agriculture and drinking water. However, as we speak, the performance of dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems (systems based on running seasonal meteorological forecasts through a hydrological model to produce seasonal hydrological forecasts) is still limited in space and time. In this context, the ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) remains an attractive forecasting method for seasonal streamflow forecasting as it relies on forcing a hydrological model (starting from the latest observed or simulated initial hydrological conditions) with historical meteorological observations. This makes it cheaper to run than a standard dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting system, for which the seasonal meteorological forecasts will first have to be produced, while still producing skilful forecasts. There is thus the need to focus resources and time towards improvements in dynamical seasonal hydrological forecasting systems which will eventually lead to significant improvements in the skill of the streamflow forecasts generated. Sensitivity analyses are a powerful tool that can be used to disentangle the relative contributions of the two main sources of errors in seasonal streamflow forecasts, namely the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; e.g., soil moisture, snow cover, initial streamflow, among others) and the meteorological forcing (MF; i.e., seasonal meteorological forecasts of precipitation and temperature, input to the hydrological model). Sensitivity analyses are however most useful if they inform and change current operational practices. To this end, we propose a method to improve the design of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system. This method is based on sensitivity analyses, informing the forecasters as to which element of the forecasting chain (i.e., IHC or MF) could potentially lead to the highest increase in seasonal hydrological forecasting performance, after each forecast update.

A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System: Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yujie; Xue, Ming; Zhu, Kefeng; Wang, Mingjun

2018-05-01

A dual-resolution (DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-3D ensemble variational (3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution (HR) deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution (LR) EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/˜13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) 3D variational (3DVar) analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar. Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds.

Satellite Spots Turbulence Producing Mountain Waves in the Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britt, Robert Roy

2002-01-01

When masses of air flow over massive mountains, invisible waves often roil high into the stratosphere, affecting weather and mixing the chemicals that contribute to ozone depletion. The waves also create turbulence that can be a danger to high-altitude research missions by NASA's lightweight ER-2 aircraft, as well as shuttle flights upon reentry. In Friday's issue of the journal Science, researchers report for the first time a technique that allows them to see temperature signatures from these invisible mountain waves. The method, involving high-resolution, satellite-based measurement of adjacent pockets of the atmosphere, is expected to aid in spotting turbulence and, one day, improve weather forecasts.

Dynamic Change in Glacial Dammed Lake Behavior of Suicide Basin, Mendenhall Glacier, Juneau Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, A. B.; Moran, T.; Hood, E. W.

2016-12-01

Suicide Basin Jökulhlaups, since 2011, have resulted in moderate flooding on the Mendenhall Lake and River in Juneau, AK. At this time, the USGS recorded peak streamflow of 20,000 cfs in 2014, the highest flows officially reported by the USGS which was attributed to a Suicide Basin glacial-dammed lake release. However, the USGS estimated a peak flow of 27,000 cfs in 1961 and we suspect this event is partially the result of a glacial dammed lake release. From 2011 to 2015, data indicates that yearly outburst from Suicide Basin were the norm; however, in 2015 and 2016, multiple outbursts during the summer were observed suggesting a dynamic change in glacial behavior. For public safety and awareness, the University of Alaska Southeast and U.S. Geologic Survey began monitoring real-time Suicide Basin lake levels. A real-time model was developed by the National Weather Service Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center capable of forecasting potential timing and magnitude of the flood-wave crest from this Suicide Basin release. However, the model now is being modified because data not previously available has become available and adapted to the change in state of glacial behavior. The importance of forecasting time and level of crest on the Mendenhall River system owing to these outbursts floods is an essential aid to emergency managers and the general public to provide impact decision support services (IDSS). The National Weather Service has been able to provide 36 to 24 hour forecasts for these large events, but with the change in glacial state on the Mendenhall Glacier, the success of forecasting these events is getting more challenging. We will show the success of the hydrologic model but at the same time show the challenges we have seen with the changing glacier dynamics.

Sensitivity analysis of a data assimilation technique for hindcasting and forecasting hydrodynamics of a complex coastal water body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Lei; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Accurate forecasting of coastal surface currents is of great economic importance due to marine activities such as marine renewable energy and fish farms in coastal regions in recent twenty years. Advanced oceanographic observation systems such as satellites and radars can provide many parameters of interest, such as surface currents and waves, with fine spatial resolution in near real time. To enhance modelling capability, data assimilation (DA) techniques which combine the available measurements with the hydrodynamic models have been used since the 1990s in oceanography. Assimilating measurements into hydrodynamic models makes the original model background states follow the observation trajectory, then uses it to provide more accurate forecasting information. Galway Bay is an open, wind dominated water body on which two coastal radars are deployed. An efficient and easy to implement sequential DA algorithm named Optimal Interpolation (OI) was used to blend radar surface current data into a three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model. Two empirical parameters, horizontal correlation length and DA cycle length (CL), are inherent within OI. No guidance has previously been published regarding selection of appropriate values of these parameters or how sensitive OI DA is to variations in their values. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed on both of these parameters and results presented. Appropriate value of DA CL was examined and determined on producing the minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) between radar data and model background states. Analysis was performed to evaluate assimilation index (AI) of using an OI DA algorithm in the model. AI of the half-day forecasting mean vectors' directions was over 50% in the best assimilation model. The ability of using OI to improve model forecasts was also assessed and is reported upon.

Projected Changes on the Global Surface Wave Drift Climate towards the END of the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrasco, Ana; Semedo, Alvaro; Behrens, Arno; Weisse, Ralf; Breivik, Øyvind; Saetra, Øyvind; Håkon Christensen, Kai

2016-04-01

The global wave-induced current (the Stokes Drift - SD) is an important feature of the ocean surface, with mean values close to 10 cm/s along the extra-tropical storm tracks in both hemispheres. Besides the horizontal displacement of large volumes of water the SD also plays an important role in the ocean mix-layer turbulence structure, particularly in stormy or high wind speed areas. The role of the wave-induced currents in the ocean mix-layer and in the sea surface temperature (SST) is currently a hot topic of air-sea interaction research, from forecast to climate ranges. The SD is mostly driven by wind sea waves and highly sensitive to changes in the overlaying wind speed and direction. The impact of climate change in the global wave-induced current climate will be presented. The wave model WAM has been forced by the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5 wind speed (at 10 m height) and ice, for present-day and potential future climate conditions towards the end of the end of the twenty-first century, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (usually referred to as a ''medium-high emissions'' scenario). Several wave parameters were stored as output in the WAM model simulations, including the wave spectra. The 6 hourly and 0.5°×0.5°, temporal and space resolution, wave spectra were used to compute the SD global climate of two 32-yr periods, representative of the end of the twentieth (1959-1990) and twenty-first (1969-2100) centuries. Comparisons of the present climate run with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-40 reanalysis are used to assess the capability of the WAM-ECHAM5 runs to produce realistic SD results. This study is part of the WRCP-JCOMM COWCLIP (Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project) effort.

The Influence of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction on MJO Development and Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

atmosphere-ocean feedbacks and their influence on MJO development, and for forecasting of air sea interaction in the Indian Ocean basin and its influence...black line indicating precipitation maximum over the DYNAMO area and the red line indicating the precipitation anomaly west of Sumatra . The... basin in December. Similar EOF decomposition of the precipitation associated with Kelvin waves (not shown here) indicates strong Kelvin wave anomaly

Wave height data assimilation using non-stationary kriging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolosana-Delgado, R.; Egozcue, J. J.; Sáchez-Arcilla, A.; Gómez, J.

2011-03-01

Data assimilation into numerical models should be both computationally fast and physically meaningful, in order to be applicable in online environmental surveillance. We present a way to improve assimilation for computationally intensive models, based on non-stationary kriging and a separable space-time covariance function. The method is illustrated with significant wave height data. The covariance function is expressed as a collection of fields: each one is obtained as the empirical covariance between the studied property (significant wave height in log-scale) at a pixel where a measurement is located (a wave-buoy is available) and the same parameter at every other pixel of the field. These covariances are computed from the available history of forecasts. The method provides a set of weights, that can be mapped for each measuring location, and that do not vary with time. Resulting weights may be used in a weighted average of the differences between the forecast and measured parameter. In the case presented, these weights may show long-range connection patterns, such as between the Catalan coast and the eastern coast of Sardinia, associated to common prevailing meteo-oceanographic conditions. When such patterns are considered as non-informative of the present situation, it is always possible to diminish their influence by relaxing the covariance maps.

Analyzing Effect of System Inertia on Grid Frequency Forecasting Usnig Two Stage Neuro-Fuzzy System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chourey, Divyansh R.; Gupta, Himanshu; Kumar, Amit; Kumar, Jitesh; Kumar, Anand; Mishra, Anup

2018-04-01

Frequency forecasting is an important aspect of power system operation. The system frequency varies with load-generation imbalance. Frequency variation depends upon various parameters including system inertia. System inertia determines the rate of fall of frequency after the disturbance in the grid. Though, inertia of the system is not considered while forecasting the frequency of power system during planning and operation. This leads to significant errors in forecasting. In this paper, the effect of inertia on frequency forecasting is analysed for a particular grid system. In this paper, a parameter equivalent to system inertia is introduced. This parameter is used to forecast the frequency of a typical power grid for any instant of time. The system gives appreciable result with reduced error.

Effect of heat waves on VOC emissions from vegetation and urban air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, G.; Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; Bonn, B.; Butler, T. M.

2015-12-01

Programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures, increase carbon storage, storm water control, provision of space for recreation, as well as poverty alleviation. Although these multiple benefits speak positively for urban greening programs, the programs do not take into account how close human and natural systems are coupled in urban areas. Elevated temperatures together with anthropogenic emissions of air and water pollutants distinguish the urban system. Urban and sub-urban vegetation responds to ambient changes and reacts with pollutants. Neglecting this coupling may lead to unforeseen drawbacks of urban greening programs. The potential for emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions to produce ozone has long been recognized. This potential increases under rising temperatures. Here we investigate how heat waves affect emissions of VOC from urban vegetation and corresponding ground-level ozone. In this study we use Weather Research and Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks in Berlin, Germany during the 2006 heat wave. VOC emissions from vegetation are simulated with MEGAN 2.0 coupled with WRF-CHEM. Our preliminary results indicate that contribution of VOCs from vegetation to ozone formation may increase by more than twofold during the heat wave period. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas under changing climate and discuss associated tradeoffs.

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, David

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar-wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere. The three simulations are directly or indirectly connected each other based on real-time observa-tion data to reproduce a virtual geo-space region on the super-computer. Informatics is a new methodology to make precise forecast of space weather. Based on new information and communication technologies (ICT), it provides more information in both quality and quantity. At NICT, we have been developing a cloud-computing system named "space weather cloud" based on a high-speed network system (JGN2+). Huge-scale distributed storage (1PB), clus-ter computers, visualization systems and other resources are expected to derive new findings and services of space weather forecasting. The final goal of NICT space weather service is to predict near-future space weather conditions and disturbances which will be causes of satellite malfunctions, tele-communication problems, and error of GPS navigations. In the present talk, we introduce our recent activities on the space weather services and discuss how we are going to develop the services from the view points of space science and practical uses.

Generation of Fine Scale Wind and Wave Climatologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandenberghe, F. C.; Filipot, J.; Mouche, A.

2013-12-01

A tool to generate 'on demand' large databases of atmospheric parameters at high resolution has been developed for defense applications. The approach takes advantage of the zooming and relocation capabilities of the embedded domains that can be found in regional models like the community Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF). The WRF model is applied to dynamically downscale NNRP, CFSR and ERA40 global analyses and to generate long records, up to 30 years, of hourly gridded data over 200km2 domains at 3km grid increment. To insure accuracy, observational data from the NCAR ADP historical database are used in combination with the Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) techniques to constantly nudge the model analysis toward observations. The atmospheric model is coupled to secondary applications such as the NOAA's Wave Watch III model the Navy's APM Electromagnetic Propagation model, allowing the creation of high-resolution climatologies of surface winds, waves and electromagnetic propagation parameters. The system was applied at several coastal locations of the Mediterranean Sea where SAR wind and wave observations were available during the entire year of 2008. Statistical comparisons between the model output and SAR observations are presented. Issues related to the global input data, and the model drift, as well as the impact of the wind biases on wave simulations will be discussed.

Steepened magnetosonic waves in the high beta plasma surrounding Comet Giacobini-Zinner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, B. T.; Smith, E. J.; Thorne, R. M.; Gosling, J. T.; Matsumoto, H.

1986-01-01

Studies of intense hydromagnetic waves at Giacobini-Zinner are extended to investigate the mode and direction of wave propagation. Simultaneous high-resolution measurements of electron density fluctuations demonstrate that long period waves propagate in the magnetosonic mode. Principal axis analyses of the long period waves and accompanying partial rotations show that the sum of the wave phase rotations is 360 deg, indicating that both are parts of the same wave oscillation. The time sequence of the steepened waveforms observed by ICE shows that the waves must propagate towards the Sun with Cph less than Vsw. Observations are consistent with wave generation by resonant ion ring or ion beam instability which predicts right-hand polarized waves propagating in the ion beam (solar) direction. The large amplitudes and small scale sizes of the cometary waves suggest that rapid pitch-angle scattering and energy transfer with energetic ions should occur. Since the waves are highly compressive, first-order Fermi acceleration is forecast.

Detecting primordial gravitational waves with circular polarization of the redshifted 21 cm line. II. Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Abhilash; Hirata, Christopher M.

2018-05-01

In the first paper of this series, we showed that the CMB quadrupole at high redshifts results in a small circular polarization of the emitted 21 cm radiation. In this paper we forecast the sensitivity of future radio experiments to measure the CMB quadrupole during the era of first cosmic light (z ˜20 ). The tomographic measurement of 21 cm circular polarization allows us to construct a 3D remote quadrupole field. Measuring the B -mode component of this remote quadrupole field can be used to put bounds on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r . We make Fisher forecasts for a future Fast Fourier Transform Telescope (FFTT), consisting of an array of dipole antennas in a compact grid configuration, as a function of array size and observation time. We find that a FFTT with a side length of 100 km can achieve σ (r )˜4 ×10-3 after ten years of observation and with a sky coverage fsky˜0.7 . The forecasts are dependent on the evolution of the Lyman-α flux in the pre-reionization era, that remains observationally unconstrained. Finally, we calculate the typical order of magnitudes for circular polarization foregrounds and comment on their mitigation strategies. We conclude that detection of primordial gravitational waves with 21 cm observations is in principle possible, so long as the primordial magnetic field amplitude is small, but would require a very futuristic experiment with corresponding advances in calibration and foreground suppression techniques.

Sensitivity of modeled estuarine circulation to spatial and temporal resolution of input meteorological forcing of a cold frontal passage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Robert J.; Taeb, Peyman; Lazarus, Steven; Splitt, Michael; Holman, Bryan P.; Colvin, Jeffrey

2016-12-01

In this study, a four member ensemble of meteorological forcing is generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to simulate a frontal passage event that impacted the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) during March 2015. The WRF model is run to provide high and low, spatial (0.005° and 0.1°) and temporal (30 min and 6 h) input wind and pressure fields. The four member ensemble is used to force the Advanced Circulation model (ADCIRC) coupled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and compute the hydrodynamic and wave response. Results indicate that increasing the spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing has a greater impact on the results than increasing the temporal resolution in coastal systems like the IRL where the length scales are smaller than the resolution of the operational meteorological model being used to generate the forecast. Changes in predicted water elevations are due in part to the upwind and downwind behavior of the input wind forcing. The significant wave height is more sensitive to the meteorological forcing, exhibited by greater ensemble spread throughout the simulation. It is important that the land mask, seen by the meteorological model, is representative of the geography of the coastal estuary as resolved by the hydrodynamic model. As long as the temporal resolution of the wind field captures the bulk characteristics of the frontal passage, computational resources should be focused so as to ensure that the meteorological model resolves the spatial complexities, such as the land-water interface, that drive the land use responsible for dynamic downscaling of the winds.

Global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed from the ERA-20CM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarnes, Ole Johan; Breivik, Øyvind

2016-04-01

The ERA-20CM is one of the latest additions to the ERA-series produced at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This 10 member ensemble is generated with a version of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a coupled atmosphere-wave model. The model integration is run as a AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) constrained by CMIP5 recommended radiative forcing and different realizations of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover (SIC) prescribed by the HadISST2 (Met Office Hadley Center). While the ERA-20CM is unable to reproduce the actual synoptic conditions, it is designed to offer a realistic statistical representation of the past climate, spanning the period 1899-2010. In this study we investigate global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed based on ERA-20CM, using monthly mean data, upper percentiles and monthly/annual maxima. The aim of the study is to assess the quality of the trends and how these estimates are affected by different SST and SIC. Global trends are compared against corresponding estimates obtained with ERA-Interim (1979-2009), but also crosschecked against ERA-20C - an ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century, known to most trustworthy in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Over the period 1900-2009, the 10 member ensemble yields trends mainly within +/- 5% per century. However, significant trends of opposite signs are found locally. Certain areas, like the eastern equatorial Pacific, highly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, show stronger trends. In general, trends based on statistical quantities further into the tail of the distribution are found less reliable.

Impacts of typhoon megi (2010) on the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, Dong Shan; Chao, Shenn-Yu; Wu, Chun-Chieh; Lin, I.-I.

2014-07-01

In October 2010, typhoon Megi induced a profound cold wake of size 800 km by 500 km with sea surface temperature cooling of 8°C in the South China Sea (SCS). More interestingly, the cold wake shifted from the often rightward bias to both sides of the typhoon track and moved to left in a few days. Using satellite data, in situ measurements and numerical modeling based on the East Asian Seas Nowcast/Forecast System (EASNFS), we performed detailed investigations. To obtain realistic typhoon-strength atmospheric forcing, the EASNFS applied typhoon-resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model wind field blended with global weather forecast winds from the U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). In addition to the already known impacts from the slow typhoon translation speed and shallow pre-exiting ocean thermocline, we found the importance of the unique geographical setting of the SCS and the NE monsoon. As the event happened in late October, NE monsoon already started and contributed to the southwestward ambient surface current. Together with the topographicβ effect, the cold wake shifted westward to the left of Megi's track. It was also found that Megi expelled waters away from the SCS and manifested as a gush of internal Kelvin wave exporting waters through the Luzon Strait. The consequential sea level depression lasted and presented a favorable condition for cold dome development. Fission of the north-south elongated cold dome resulted afterward and produced two cold eddies that dissipated slowly thereafter.

Protective longitudinal paths linking child competence to behavioral problems among African American siblings.

PubMed

Brody, Gene H; Kim, Sooyeon; Murry, Velma McBride; Brown, Anita C

2004-01-01

A 4-wave longitudinal design was used to examine protective links from child competence to behavioral problems in first- (M=10.97 years) and second- (M=8.27 years) born rural African American children. At 1-year intervals, teachers assessed child behavioral problems, mothers reported their psychological functioning, and both mothers and children reported parenting practices. Structural equation modeling indicated that child competence was linked with residualized positive changes in mothers' psychological functioning from Wave 1 to Wave 2. Mothers' psychological functioning and child competence at Wave 2 forecast involved-supportive parenting at Wave 3, which was associated negatively with externalizing and internalizing problems at Wave 4. The importance of replicating processes leading to outcomes among children in the same study is discussed.

Wavelet Transform Based Higher Order Statistical Analysis of Wind and Wave Time Histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habib Huseni, Gulamhusenwala; Balaji, Ramakrishnan

2017-10-01

Wind, blowing on the surface of the ocean, imparts the energy to generate the waves. Understanding the wind-wave interactions is essential for an oceanographer. This study involves higher order spectral analyses of wind speeds and significant wave height time histories, extracted from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast database at an offshore location off Mumbai coast, through continuous wavelet transform. The time histories were divided by the seasons; pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter and the analysis were carried out to the individual data sets, to assess the effect of various seasons on the wind-wave interactions. The analysis revealed that the frequency coupling of wind speeds and wave heights of various seasons. The details of data, analysing technique and results are presented in this paper.

Process studies with airborne GLORIA limb-imaging FTS observations during the Arctic winter 2015/16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woiwode, W.; Bramberger, M.; Braun, M.; Dörnbrack, A.; Friedl-Vallon, F.; Grooss, J. U.; Hoepfner, M.; Johansson, S.; Latzko, T.; Oelhaf, H.; Orphal, J.; Preusse, P.; Sinnhuber, B. M.; Suminska-Ebersoldt, O.; Ungermann, J.

2017-12-01

The Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) limb-imaging infrared Fourier-Transform Spectrometer (FTS) was deployed on board the High Altitude and LOng range research aircraft (HALO) from December 2015 until March 2016 for process studies in the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Operations were carried out from Kiruna (Sweden, 68°N) and Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany, 48°N) in the framework of the combined POLSTRACC/GW-LCYCLE/SALSA (PGS) campaigns, including 18 scientific HALO flights and about 156 flight hours. After a brief overview of the instrument, examples of process studies using GLORIA high spectral resolution mode observations will be given: (1) Strong nitrification of the Arctic lowermost stratosphere during the exceptionally cold stratospheric winter 2015/16 and comparisons with CLaMS (Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere) chemistry transport simulations. (ii) A case study involving high-resolution ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) data, investigating the meridional structure of a tropopause fold interfering with a mountain wave.

Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

2015-04-01

Forecast verification is important across scientific disciplines as it provides a framework for evaluating the performance of a forecasting system. In the atmospheric sciences, probabilistic skill scores are often used for verification as they provide a way of unambiguously ranking the performance of different probabilistic forecasts. In order to be useful, a skill score must be proper -- it must encourage honesty in the forecaster, and reward forecasts which are reliable and which have good resolution. A new score, the Error-spread Score (ES), is proposed which is particularly suitable for evaluation of ensemble forecasts. It is formulated with respect to the moments of the forecast. The ES is confirmed to be a proper score, and is therefore sensitive to both resolution and reliability. The ES is tested on forecasts made using the Lorenz '96 system, and found to be useful for summarising the skill of the forecasts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated using the ES. Its performance is compared to a perfect statistical probabilistic forecast -- the ECMWF high resolution deterministic forecast dressed with the observed error distribution. This generates a forecast that is perfectly reliable if considered over all time, but which does not vary from day to day with the predictability of the atmospheric flow. The ES distinguishes between the dynamically reliable EPS forecasts and the statically reliable dressed deterministic forecasts. Other skill scores are tested and found to be comparatively insensitive to this desirable forecast quality. The ES is used to evaluate seasonal range ensemble forecasts made with the ECMWF System 4. The ensemble forecasts are found to be skilful when compared with climatological or persistence forecasts, though this skill is dependent on region and time of year.

Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

1993-01-01

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

Predicting seabed burial of cylinders by wave-induced scour: Application to the sandy inner shelf off Florida and Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trembanis, A.C.; Friedrichs, Carl T.; Richardson, M.D.; Traykovski, P.; Howd, P.A.; Elmore, P.A.; Wever, T.F.

2007-01-01

A simple parameterized model for wave-induced burial of mine-like cylinders as a function of grain-size, time-varying, wave orbital velocity and mine diameter was implemented and assessed against results from inert instrumented mines placed off the Indian Rocks Beach (IRB, FL), and off the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO, Edgartown, MA). The steady flow scour parameters provided by Whitehouse (1998) for self-settling cylinders worked well for predicting burial by depth below the ambient seabed for O (0.5 m) diameter mines in fine sand at both sites. By including or excluding scour pit infilling, a range of percent burial by surface area was predicted that was also consistent with observations. Rapid scour pit infilling was often seen at MVCO but never at IRB, suggesting that the environmental presence of fine sediment plays a key role in promoting infilling. Overprediction of mine scour in coarse sand was corrected by assuming a mine within a field of large ripples buries only until it generates no more turbulence than that produced by surrounding bedforms. The feasibility of using a regional wave model to predict mine burial in both hindcast and real-time forecast mode was tested using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, Washington, DC) WaveWatch 3 (WW3) model. Hindcast waves were adequate for useful operational forcing of mine burial predictions, but five-day wave forecasts introduced large errors. This investigation was part of a larger effort to develop simple yet reliable predictions of mine burial suitable for addressing the operational needs of the U.S. Navy. ?? 2007 IEEE.

The scientific challenges to forecasting the propagation of space weather through the heliosphere (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Holst, B.; Manchester, W.; Sokolov, I.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I.

2013-12-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a major source of potentially destructive space weather conditions. Understanding and forecasting these events are of utmost importance. In this presentation we discuss the progress towards a physics-based predictive capability within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). We demonstrate our latest development in the AWSoM (Alfven Wave Solar Model) global model of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. This model accounts for the coupled thermodynamics of the electrons and protons via single fluid magnetohydrodynamics. The coronal heating and solar wind acceleration are addressed with Alfvén wave turbulence. The realistic 3D magnetic field is simulated using data from the photospheric magnetic field measurements. The AWSoM model serves as a workhorse for modeling CMEs from initial eruption to prediction at 1AU. With selected events we will demonstrate the complexity and challenges associated with CME propagation.

Gravity Waves Generated by Convection: A New Idealized Model Tool and Direct Validation with Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. Joan; Stephan, Claudia

2015-04-01

In climate models, gravity waves remain too poorly resolved to be directly modelled. Instead, simplified parameterizations are used to include gravity wave effects on model winds. A few climate models link some of the parameterized waves to convective sources, providing a mechanism for feedback between changes in convection and gravity wave-driven changes in circulation in the tropics and above high-latitude storms. These convective wave parameterizations are based on limited case studies with cloud-resolving models, but they are poorly constrained by observational validation, and tuning parameters have large uncertainties. Our new work distills results from complex, full-physics cloud-resolving model studies to essential variables for gravity wave generation. We use the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to study relationships between precipitation, latent heating/cooling and other cloud properties to the spectrum of gravity wave momentum flux above midlatitude storm systems. Results show the gravity wave spectrum is surprisingly insensitive to the representation of microphysics in WRF. This is good news for use of these models for gravity wave parameterization development since microphysical properties are a key uncertainty. We further use the full-physics cloud-resolving model as a tool to directly link observed precipitation variability to gravity wave generation. We show that waves in an idealized model forced with radar-observed precipitation can quantitatively reproduce instantaneous satellite-observed features of the gravity wave field above storms, which is a powerful validation of our understanding of waves generated by convection. The idealized model directly links observations of surface precipitation to observed waves in the stratosphere, and the simplicity of the model permits deep/large-area domains for studies of wave-mean flow interactions. This unique validated model tool permits quantitative studies of gravity wave driving of regional circulation and provides a new method for future development of realistic convective gravity wave parameterizations.

Youth temperament, harsh parenting, and variation in the oxytocin receptor gene forecast allostatic load during emerging adulthood.

PubMed

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Barton, Allen W; Miller, Gregory E; Chen, Edith

2017-08-01

An association has been found between receipt of harsh parenting in childhood and adult health problems. However, this research has been principally retrospective, has treated children as passive recipients of parental behavior, and has overlooked individual differences in youth responsivity to harsh parenting. In a 10-year multiple-wave prospective study of African American families, we addressed these issues by focusing on the influence of polymorphisms in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR), variants of which appear to buffer or amplify responses to environmental stress. The participants were 303 youths, with a mean age of 11.2 at the first assessment, and their parents, all of whom were genotyped for variations in the rs53576 (A/G) polymorphism. Teachers rated preadolescent (ages 11 to 13) emotionally intense and distractible temperaments, and adolescents (ages 15 and 16) reported receipt of harsh parenting. Allostatic load was assessed during young adulthood (ages 20 and 21). Difficult preadolescent temperament forecast elevated receipt of harsh parenting in adolescence, and adolescents who experienced harsh parenting evinced high allostatic load during young adulthood. However, these associations emerged only among children and parents who carried A alleles of the OXTR genotype. The results suggest the oxytocin system operates along with temperament and parenting to forecast young adults' allostatic load.

Operational wave forecasting with spaceborne SAR: Prospects and pitfalls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beal, R. C.

1986-01-01

Measurements collected in the Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-B) Extreme Waves Experiment confirm the ability of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to yield useful estimates of wave directional energy spectra over global scales, at least for shuttle altitudes. However, azimuth fall-off effects tend to become severe for wavelengths shorter than about 100 m in most sea states. Moreover, the azimuth fall-off problem becomes increasingly severe as the platform altitude increases beyond 300 km. The most viable solution to the global wave measurements problem may be a low altitude spacecraft containing a combination of both the SAR and the Radar Ocean Wave Spectrometry (ROWS). Such a combination could have a synergy which yield global spectral estimates superior to those of either instrument singly employed.

The Coronal Analysis of SHocks and Waves (CASHeW) framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozarev, Kamen A.; Davey, Alisdair; Kendrick, Alexander; Hammer, Michael; Keith, Celeste

2017-11-01

Coronal bright fronts (CBF) are large-scale wavelike disturbances in the solar corona, related to solar eruptions. They are observed (mostly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light) as transient bright fronts of finite width, propagating away from the eruption source location. Recent studies of individual solar eruptive events have used EUV observations of CBFs and metric radio type II burst observations to show the intimate connection between waves in the low corona and coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks. EUV imaging with the atmospheric imaging assembly instrument on the solar dynamics observatory has proven particularly useful for detecting large-scale short-lived CBFs, which, combined with radio and in situ observations, holds great promise for early CME-driven shock characterization capability. This characterization can further be automated, and related to models of particle acceleration to produce estimates of particle fluxes in the corona and in the near Earth environment early in events. We present a framework for the coronal analysis of shocks and waves (CASHeW). It combines analysis of NASA Heliophysics System Observatory data products and relevant data-driven models, into an automated system for the characterization of off-limb coronal waves and shocks and the evaluation of their capability to accelerate solar energetic particles (SEPs). The system utilizes EUV observations and models written in the interactive data language. In addition, it leverages analysis tools from the SolarSoft package of libraries, as well as third party libraries. We have tested the CASHeW framework on a representative list of coronal bright front events. Here we present its features, as well as initial results. With this framework, we hope to contribute to the overall understanding of coronal shock waves, their importance for energetic particle acceleration, as well as to the better ability to forecast SEP events fluxes.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

Nonlinear problems in data-assimilation : Can synchronization help?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tribbia, J. J.; Duane, G. S.

2009-12-01

Over the past several years, operational weather centers have initiated ensemble prediction and assimilation techniques to estimate the error covariance of forecasts in the short and the medium range. The ensemble techniques used are based on linear methods. The theory This technique s been shown to be a useful indicator of skill in the linear range where forecast errors are small relative to climatological variance. While this advance has been impressive, there are still ad hoc aspects of its use in practice, like the need for covariance inflation which are troubling. Furthermore, to be of utility in the nonlinear range an ensemble assimilation and prediction method must be capable of giving probabilistic information for the situation where a probability density forecast becomes multi-modal. A prototypical, simplest example of such a situation is the planetary-wave regime transition where the pdf is bimodal. Our recent research show how the inconsistencies and extensions of linear methodology can be consistently treated using the paradigm of synchronization which views the problems of assimilation and forecasting as that of optimizing the forecast model state with respect to the future evolution of the atmosphere.

The UKC2 regional coupled environmental prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Huw W.; Castillo Sanchez, Juan Manuel; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Bornemann, Jorge; Arnold, Alex; Fallmann, Joachim; Harris, Chris; Pearson, David; Ramsdale, Steven; Martínez-de la Torre, Alberto; Bricheno, Lucy; Blyth, Eleanor; Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen; Marthews, Toby R.; O'Neill, Clare; Rumbold, Heather; O'Dea, Enda; Brereton, Ashley; Guihou, Karen; Hines, Adrian; Butenschon, Momme; Dadson, Simon J.; Palmer, Tamzin; Holt, Jason; Reynard, Nick; Best, Martin; Edwards, John; Siddorn, John

2018-01-01

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.

Performance of an Advanced MOS System in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vislocky, Robert L.; Fritsch, J. Michael

1997-12-01

A prototype advanced model output statistics (MOS) forecast system that was entered in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecast Contest is described and its performance compared to that of widely available objective guidance and to contest participants. The prototype system uses an optimal blend of aviation (AVN) and nested grid model (NGM) MOS forecasts, explicit output from the NGM and Eta guidance, and the latest surface weather observations from the forecast site. The forecasts are totally objective and can be generated quickly on a personal computer. Other "objective" forms of guidance tracked in the contest are 1) the consensus forecast (i.e., the average of the forecasts from all of the human participants), 2) the combination of NGM raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and NGM MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts), and 3) the combination of Eta Model raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and AVN MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts).Results show that the advanced MOS system finished in 20th place out of 737 original entrants, or better than approximately 97% of the human forecasters who entered the contest. Moreover, the advanced MOS system was slightly better than consensus (23d place). The fact that an objective forecast system finished ahead of consensus is a significant accomplishment since consensus is traditionally a very formidable "opponent" in forecast competitions. Equally significant is that the advanced MOS system was superior to the traditional guidance products available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Specifically, the combination of NGM raw output and NGM MOS guidance finished in 175th place, and the combination of Eta Model raw output and AVN MOS guidance finished in 266th place. The latter result is most intriguing since the proposed elimination of all NGM products would likely result in a serious degradation of objective products disseminated by NCEP, unless they are replaced with equal or better substitutes. On the other hand, the positive performance of the prototype advanced MOS system shows that it is possible to create a single objective product that is not only superior to currently available objective guidance products, but is also on par with some of the better human forecasters.

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Mungov, G.; Sweeney, A.; Arcos, N. P.

2017-12-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 Mw earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; Stroker, Kelly; Arcos, Nicolas

2017-08-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 M w earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 coastal tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height for each tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.

Forecasting and Hindcasting Waves With the SWAN Model in the Southern California Bight

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

2006, there are active relevant websites run by the Coastal Data Information Program ( CDIP ). * Corresponding author. Fax: +1 228 688 4759. An...word "blocking" here implies that an island is completely output locations are locations of CDIP instruments (all buoys, blocking wave energy from some...direction. Blocking is not the except for 073). Some CDIP locations are referred to by three- only problem associated with geographic resolution, of

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of a Severe Downslope Windstorm in Complex Terrain: Implications for Forecast Predictability Scales and Targeted Observing Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

wave breaking (NWB) and eight wave breaking (WB) storms are shown...studies, and it follows that the wind storm characteristics are likely more three dimensional as well. For the purposes of this study, a severe DSWS is...regularly using the HWAS network at USAFA since its installation in 2004. A careful examination of these events reveals downslope storms that are

The role of satellite directional wave spectra for the improvement of the ocean-waves coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aouf, Lotfi; Hauser, Danièle; Chapron, Bertrand

2017-04-01

Swell waves are well captured by the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) which provides the directional wave spectra for waves roughly larger than 200 m. Since the launch of sentinel-1A and 1B SAR directional wave spectra are available to improve the swell wave forecasting and the coupling processes at the air-sea interface. Moreover next year CFOSAT mission will provide directional wave spectra for waves with wavelengths comprised between 70 to 500 m. This study aims to evaluate the assimilation of SAR and synthetic CFOSAT wave spectra on the coupling between the wave model MFWAM and the ocean model NEMO. Three coupling processes as described in Breivik et al. (2014) of Stokes-Coriolis forcing, the ocean side stress and the turbulence injected by the wave breaking in the ocean mixed layer have been used. a coupling run is performed with and without assimilation of directional wave spectra. the impact of SAR wave data on key parameters such as surface sea temperature, currents and salinity is investigated. Particular attention is carried out for ocean areas with swell dominant wave climate.

Applications of Seasat to the offshore oil, gas and mining industries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mourad, A. G.; Robinson, A. C.

1977-01-01

The NASA satellite Seasat-A (to be launched in 1978) has applications to the offshore oil, gas, and mining industries including: (1) improvements in weather and wave forecasting, (2) studies of past wind and wave statistics for planning design requirements, and (3) monitoring ice formation, breakup, and movement in arctic regions. The primary geographic areas which will be monitored by Seasat-A include: the Beaufort Sea, the Labrador Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. east coast, West Africa, Equatorial East Pacific, the Gulf of Alaska, and the North Sea. Seasat-A instrumentation used in ocean monitoring consists of a radar altimeter, a radar scatterometer, a synthetic aperture radar, a microwave radiometer, and a visible and infrared radiometer. The future outlook of the Seasat program is planned in three phases: measurement feasibility demonstration (1978-1980), data accessibility/utility demonstration (1980-1983), and operational system demonstration (1983-1985).

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finley, Cathy

2014-04-30

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements inmore » wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.« less

Should we use seasonnal meteorological ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecasting? A case study for nordic watersheds in Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert; Guay, Catherine

2017-04-01

Hydro-electricity is a major source of energy for many countries throughout the world, including Canada. Long lead-time streamflow forecasts are all the more valuable as they help decision making and dam management. Different techniques exist for long-term hydrological forecasting. Perhaps the most well-known is 'Extended Streamflow Prediction' (ESP), which considers past meteorological scenarios as possible, often equiprobable, future scenarios. In the ESP framework, those past-observed meteorological scenarios (climatology) are used in turn as the inputs of a chosen hydrological model to produce ensemble forecasts (one member corresponding to each year in the available database). Many hydropower companies, including Hydro-Québec (province of Quebec, Canada) use variants of the above described ESP system operationally for long-term operation planning. The ESP system accounts for the hydrological initial conditions and for the natural variability of the meteorological variables. However, it cannot consider the current initial state of the atmosphere. Climate models can help remedy this drawback. In the context of a changing climate, dynamical forecasts issued from climate models seem to be an interesting avenue to improve upon the ESP method and could help hydropower companies to adapt their management practices to an evolving climate. Long-range forecasts from climate models can also be helpful for water management at locations where records of past meteorological conditions are short or nonexistent. In this study, we compare 7-month hydrological forecasts obtained from climate model outputs to an ESP system. The ESP system mimics the one used operationally at Hydro-Québec. The dynamical climate forecasts are produced by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System4. Forecasts quality is assessed using numerical scores such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Ignorance score and also graphical tools such as the reliability diagram. This study covers 10 nordic watersheds. We show that forecast performance according to the CRPS varies with lead-time but also with the period of the year. The raw forecasts from the ECMWF System4 display important biases for both temperature and precipitation, which need to be corrected. The linear scaling method is used for this purpose and is found effective. Bias correction improves forecasts performance, especially during the summer when the precipitations are over-estimated. According to the CRPS, bias corrected forecasts from System4 show performances comparable to those of the ESP system. However, the Ignorance score, which penalizes the lack of calibration (under-dispersive forecasts in this case) more severely than the CRPS, provides a different outlook for the comparison of the two systems. In fact, according to the Ignorance score, the ESP system outperforms forecasts based on System4 in most cases. This illustrates that the joint use of several metrics is crucial to assess the quality of a forecasts system thoroughly. Globally, ESP provide reliable forecasts which can be over-dispersed whereas bias corrected ECMWF System4 forecasts are sharper but at the risk of missing events.

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

2011-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by observed atmospheric forcing. The forecast skills from the dynamical seasonal models (CFSv1, CFSv2, EUROSIP) and CPC are also compared with forecasts based on the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method, which uses initial conditions and historical forcings to generate seasonal forecasts. The skill of the system to predict drought, drought recovery and related hydrological conditions such as low-flows is assessed, along with quantified uncertainty.

Case study of a severe windstorm over Slovakia and Hungary on 25 June 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, André; Kaňák, Ján; Sokol, Alois; Putsay, Mária; Uhrínová, Lucia; Csirmaz, Kálmán; Okon, Ľuboslav; Habrovský, Richard

2011-06-01

A system of thunderstorms approached the Slovakia and Hungary in the late evening hours of 25 June 2008, causing extensive damage and peak wind gusts up to 40 m/s. This study examines the macro- and mesosynoptic conditions for the windstorm using soundings, analyses, and forecasts of numerical models (ALADIN, ECMWF). A derecho-like character of the event is discussed. Meteosat Second Generation imagery and convective indices inferred from satellite and model data are used to assess the humidity distribution and the conditional instability of the thunderstorm environment. An intrusion of the environmental dry air into the convective system and intensification of downdrafts is considered to be one of the reasons for the damaging winds observed at some areas. This is supported by the radar imagery showing a sudden drop of radar reflectivity and creation of line echo wave patterns and bow echoes. A numerical simulation provided by the non-hydrostatic MM5 model indicated the development of meso-γ scale vortices embedded in the convective system. The genesis and a possible role of such vortices in creating rear-inflow jets and intensifying the low level winds are investigated with the help of the vorticity equation and several other diagnostic parameters. In addition, the effect of various physical parameterisations on the forecast of the windstorm is evaluated.

Cyclone Xaver seen by SARAL/AltiKa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharroo, Remko; Fenoglio, Luciana; Annunziato, Alessandro

2014-05-01

During the first week of December 2013, Cyclone Xaver pounded the coasts and the North Sea. On 6 December, all along the Wadden Sea, the barrier islands along the north of the Netherlands and the northwest of Germany experienced record storm surges. We show a comparison of the storm surge measured by the radar altimeter AltiKa on-board the SARAL satellite and various types of in-situ data and models. Two tide gauges along the German North Sea coast, one in the southern harbour of the island of Helgoland and one on an offshore lighthouse Alte Weser, confirmed that the storm drove sea level to about three meters above the normal tide level. Loading effects during the storm are also detected by the GPS measurements at several tide gauge stations. The altimeter in the mean time shows that the storm surge was noticeable as far as 400 km from the coast. The altimeter measured wind speeds of 20 m/s nearly monotonically throughout the North Sea. An offshore anemometer near the island of Borkum corroborated this value. A buoy near the FINO1 offshore platform measured wave heights of 8 m, matching quite well the measurements from the altimeter, ranging from 6 m near the German coast to 12 m further out into the North Sea. Furthermore we compare the altimeter-derived and in-situ sea level, wave height and wind speed products with outputs from the Operation Circulation and Forecast model of the Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) and with a global storm surge forecast and inundation model of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. The Operational circulation model of BSH (BSHcmod) and its component, the surge model (BSHsmod), perform daily predictions for the next 72 hours based on the meteorological model of the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD). The JRC Storm Surge Calculation System is a new development that has been established at the JRC in the framework of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS). The system uses meteorological forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to estimate (with a 2-day lead time) potential storm surges due to cyclone or general storm events. Departure between model and altimeter-derived values, in particularly wind, are investigated and discussed. The qualitative agreement is satisfactory; the maximum storm surge peak is correctly estimated by BSH but underestimated by JRC due to insufficient wind forcing. The wind speed of SARAL/AltiKa agrees well with the ECMWF model wind speed but is lower than the DWD model estimate. The authors acknowledge the kind support from the BSH, the Bundesumweltministerium (BMU), Projectträger Jülich (PTJ), and the Wasser- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung des Bundes (WSV).

When Waves Collide: Future Conflict

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-01-01

predictions merely guesswork, and forecasts often nothing more than co- herent fiction masquerading as fact.2 Trends and megatrends , which are linear...transportation, on-site inspection, and environmental cleanup—including radi- ological, chemical, and biological —as well as enforcement of the

Short Term Load Forecasting with Fuzzy Logic Systems for power system planning and reliability-A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmukhe, R. M.; Dhumale, Mrs. Sunita; Chaudhari, Mr. P. S.; Kulkarni, Mr. P. P.

2010-10-01

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of Electricity companies. It enhances the energy efficient and reliable operation of power system. Forecasting of load demand data forms an important component in planning generation schedules in a power system. The purpose of this paper is to identify issues and better method for load foecasting. In this paper we focus on fuzzy logic system based short term load forecasting. It serves as overview of the state of the art in the intelligent techniques employed for load forecasting in power system planning and reliability. Literature review has been conducted and fuzzy logic method has been summarized to highlight advantages and disadvantages of this technique. The proposed technique for implementing fuzzy logic based forecasting is by Identification of the specific day and by using maximum and minimum temperature for that day and finally listing the maximum temperature and peak load for that day. The results show that Load forecasting where there are considerable changes in temperature parameter is better dealt with Fuzzy Logic system method as compared to other short term forecasting techniques.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-;atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor'Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor'easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor'Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

DOE PAGES

Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; ...

2014-12-23

We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

The use of coastal altimetry to support storm surge studies in project eSurge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipollini, P.; Harwood, P.; Snaith, H.; Vignudelli, S.; West, L.; Zecchetto, S.; Donlon, C.

2012-04-01

One of the most promising applications of the new field of coastal altimetry, i.e. the discipline aiming to recover meaningful estimates of geophysical parameters (sea level, significant wave height and wind speed) from satellite altimeter data in the coastal zone, is the study of storm surges. The understanding and realistic modelling of surges supports both preparation and mitigation activities and should eventually bring enormous societal benefits, especially to some of the world's poorest countries (like Bangladesh). Earth Observation data have an important role to play in storm surge monitoring and forecasting, but the full uptake of these data by users (such as environmental agencies and tidal prediction centres) must first be encouraged by showcasing their usefulness, and then supported by providing easy access. Having recognized the above needs, The European Space Agency has recently launched a Data User Element (DUE) project called eSurge. The main purposes of eSurge are a) to contribute to an integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting through Earth Observation, as part of a wider optimal strategy for building an improved forecast and early warning capability for coastal inundation; and b) to increase the use of the advanced capabilities of ESA and other satellite data for storm surge applications. The project is led by Logica UK, with NOC (UK), DMI (Denmark), CMRC (Ireland) and KNMI (Netherlands) as scientific partners. A very important component of eSurge is the development, validation and provision of dedicated coastal altimetry products, which is the focus of the present contribution. Coastal altimetry has a prominent role to play as it measures the total water level envelope directly, and this is one of the key quantities required by storm surge applications and services. But it can also provide important information on the wave field in the coastal strip, which helps the development of more realistic wave models that in turn can be used to improve the forecast of wave setup and overtopping processes. We will present examples of how altimetry has captured a few significant surge events in European Seas, and we will describe how a multi-mission coastal altimetry processor is going to be integrated in the eSurge system. The delayed-time reprocessed coastal altimetry data will be blended with tide gauge data to extract the main modes of variability in the coastal regions. Then data from the tide gauges can be used to estimate water level in real time, based on the modes of variability found. In a later phase of the project, the eSurge coastal altimetry processor will be extended to be able to ingest Near-Real-time (NRT) raw altimetric waveforms and generate the relevant NRT products, a definite first for coastal altimetry. The pilot regions for this application will be the European Seas (where an area of specific interest is the Northern Adriatic, which is being investigated within a related initiative called eSurge-Venice) and the North Indian Ocean. In summary, we expect eSurge to be one of the first pre-operational applications of coastal altimetry and a proof of the benefits to society that can be brought by this relatively new branch of marine remote sensing.

Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

2016-04-01

Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

Prediction system of the 1-AU arrival times of CME-associated interplanetary shocks using three-dimensional simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

den, Mitsue; Amo, Hiroyoshi; Sugihara, Kohta; Takei, Toshifumi; Ogawa, Tomoya; Tanaka, Takashi; Watari, Shinichi

We describe prediction system of the 1-AU arrival times of interplanetary shock waves associated with coromal mass ejections (CMEs). The system is based on modeling of the shock propagation using a three-dimensional adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) code. Once a CME is observed by LASCO/SOHO, firstly ambient solar wind is obtained by numerical simulation, which reproduces the solar wind parameters at that time observed by ACE spacecraft. Then we input the expansion speed and occurrence position data of that CME as initial condtions for an CME model, and 3D simulation of the CME and the shock propagation is perfomed until the shock wave passes the 1-AU. Input the parameters, execution of simulation and output of the result are available on Web, so a person who is not familiar with operation of computer or simulations or is not a researcher can use this system to predict the shock passage time. Simulated CME and shock evolution is visuallized at the same time with simulation and snap shots appear on the web automatically, so that user can follow the propagation. This system is expected to be useful for forecasters of space weather. We will describe the system and simulation model in detail.

Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radziukynas, V.; Klementavičius, A.

2016-04-01

The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

DOE PAGES

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Jensen, Tara; ...

2017-06-16

The Sun4Cast System results from a research-to-operations project built on a value chain approach, and benefiting electric utilities’ customers, society, and the environment by improving state-of-the-science solar power forecasting capabilities. As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers.more » The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results. Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) System, the basis of the system beyond about 6 h. For short-range (0-6 h) forecasts, Sun4Cast leverages several observation-based nowcasting technologies. These technologies are blended via the Nowcasting Expert System Integrator (NESI). The NESI and DICast systems are subsequently blended to produce short to mid-term irradiance forecasts for solar array locations. The irradiance forecasts are translated into power with uncertainties quantified using an analog ensemble approach, and are provided to the industry partners for real-time decision-making. The Sun4Cast system ran operationally throughout 2015 and results were assessed. As a result, this paper analyzes the collaborative design process, discusses the project results, and provides recommendations for best-practice solar forecasting.« less

Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haupt, Sue Ellen; Kosovic, Branko; Jensen, Tara

The Sun4Cast System results from a research-to-operations project built on a value chain approach, and benefiting electric utilities’ customers, society, and the environment by improving state-of-the-science solar power forecasting capabilities. As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers.more » The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results. Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) System, the basis of the system beyond about 6 h. For short-range (0-6 h) forecasts, Sun4Cast leverages several observation-based nowcasting technologies. These technologies are blended via the Nowcasting Expert System Integrator (NESI). The NESI and DICast systems are subsequently blended to produce short to mid-term irradiance forecasts for solar array locations. The irradiance forecasts are translated into power with uncertainties quantified using an analog ensemble approach, and are provided to the industry partners for real-time decision-making. The Sun4Cast system ran operationally throughout 2015 and results were assessed. As a result, this paper analyzes the collaborative design process, discusses the project results, and provides recommendations for best-practice solar forecasting.« less

Resolution of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Application in Disease Management.

PubMed

Hughes, G; McRoberts, N; Burnett, F J

2017-02-01

Predictive systems in disease management often incorporate weather data among the disease risk factors, and sometimes this comes in the form of forecast weather data rather than observed weather data. In such cases, it is useful to have an evaluation of the operational weather forecast, in addition to the evaluation of the disease forecasts provided by the predictive system. Typically, weather forecasts and disease forecasts are evaluated using different methodologies. However, the information theoretic quantity expected mutual information provides a basis for evaluating both kinds of forecast. Expected mutual information is an appropriate metric for the average performance of a predictive system over a set of forecasts. Both relative entropy (a divergence, measuring information gain) and specific information (an entropy difference, measuring change in uncertainty) provide a basis for the assessment of individual forecasts.

Surface wave effects in the NEMO ocean model: Forced and coupled experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Mogensen, Kristian; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2015-04-01

The NEMO general circulation ocean model is extended to incorporate three physical processes related to ocean surface waves, namely the surface stress (modified by growth and dissipation of the oceanic wavefield), the turbulent kinetic energy flux from breaking waves, and the Stokes-Coriolis force. Experiments are done with NEMO in ocean-only (forced) mode and coupled to the ECMWF atmospheric and wave models. Ocean-only integrations are forced with fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. All three effects are noticeable in the extratropics, but the sea-state-dependent turbulent kinetic energy flux yields by far the largest difference. This is partly because the control run has too vigorous deep mixing due to an empirical mixing term in NEMO. We investigate the relation between this ad hoc mixing and Langmuir turbulence and find that it is much more effective than the Langmuir parameterization used in NEMO. The biases in sea surface temperature as well as subsurface temperature are reduced, and the total ocean heat content exhibits a trend closer to that observed in a recent ocean reanalysis (ORAS4) when wave effects are included. Seasonal integrations of the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model consisting of NEMO, the wave model ECWAM, and the atmospheric model of ECMWF similarly show that the sea surface temperature biases are greatly reduced when the mixing is controlled by the sea state and properly weighted by the thickness of the uppermost level of the ocean model. These wave-related physical processes were recently implemented in the operational coupled ensemble forecast system of ECMWF.

Activities of NICT space weather project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar-wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere. The three simulations are directly or indirectly connected each other based on real-time observa-tion data to reproduce a virtual geo-space region on the super-computer. Informatics is a new methodology to make precise forecast of space weather. Based on new information and communication technologies (ICT), it provides more information in both quality and quantity. At NICT, we have been developing a cloud-computing system named "space weather cloud" based on a high-speed network system (JGN2+). Huge-scale distributed storage (1PB), clus-ter computers, visualization systems and other resources are expected to derive new findings and services of space weather forecasting. The final goal of NICT space weather service is to predict near-future space weather conditions and disturbances which will be causes of satellite malfunctions, tele-communication problems, and error of GPS navigations. In the present talk, we introduce our recent activities on the space weather services and discuss how we are going to develop the services from the view points of space science and practical uses.

The confounding recent behaviour of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osprey, Scott; Butchart, Neal; Knight, Jeff; Scaife, Adam; Hamilton, Kevin; Anstey, James; Schenzinger, Verena; Zhang, Chunxi

2017-04-01

High above the equator winds slowly change from blowing eastward to westward and back again roughly every 28 months in a natural climate rhythm known as the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). These regular winds have been recorded since the 1950s and emerge from natural processes within the tropics e.g. clouds, convection, rainfall and the wave disturbances arising from these. The latter break down high up in the stratosphere, analogous to waves on a beach. Although a little tricky to capture in climate models, our understanding of the basic processes underpinning this climate rhythm was thought to be relatively complete. However, early in 2016 the stratospheric heart skipped a beat, confounding our present understanding of it. The disruption was seen as a thin and rapidly growing westward wind jet at 25km within a deep background of eastward winds. The position of the thin jet could not be explained by waves percolating up through underlying winds from the turbulent lower atmosphere. Rather clues to the origin of the disruption pointed to agents outside the tropics - large scale waves usually found at mid-latitudes made their way to the tropics, causing the disruption. Clear links are found between the winds occurring in the tropical stratosphere and the sorts of seasonal weather experienced in the tropics (e.g. MJO) and Northern/Southern Europe. Because these tropical stratosphere winds are predictable out to years, weather centres are keen to exploit them for seasonal forecasting. The 2016 disruption was not anticipated by weather centres and this has clear implications for the limiting skill of future seasonal forecasts. The results from this study raise many questions. How will the disrupted QBO impact future seasonal forecasting? Will similar events recur more often in the future, and if so what role did anthropogenic climate change play in the 2016 event? Finally, what conditions ultimately resulted in the disruption? Osprey, S. M. et al. An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation. Science. 353, 1424-1427 (2016).

The Texas Children's Hospital immunization forecaster: conceptualization to implementation.

PubMed

Cunningham, Rachel M; Sahni, Leila C; Kerr, G Brady; King, Laura L; Bunker, Nathan A; Boom, Julie A

2014-12-01

Immunization forecasting systems evaluate patient vaccination histories and recommend the dates and vaccines that should be administered. We described the conceptualization, development, implementation, and distribution of a novel immunization forecaster, the Texas Children's Hospital (TCH) Forecaster. In 2007, TCH convened an internal expert team that included a pediatrician, immunization nurse, software engineer, and immunization subject matter experts to develop the TCH Forecaster. Our team developed the design of the model, wrote the software, populated the Excel tables, integrated the software, and tested the Forecaster. We created a table of rules that contained each vaccine's recommendations, minimum ages and intervals, and contraindications, which served as the basis for the TCH Forecaster. We created 15 vaccine tables that incorporated 79 unique dose states and 84 vaccine types to operationalize the entire United States recommended immunization schedule. The TCH Forecaster was implemented throughout the TCH system, the Indian Health Service, and the Virginia Department of Health. The TCH Forecast Tester is currently being used nationally. Immunization forecasting systems might positively affect adherence to vaccine recommendations. Efforts to support health care provider utilization of immunization forecasting systems and to evaluate their impact on patient care are needed.

Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Eden, J.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

2017-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a new evaluation of an established empirical system used to predict seasonal climate across the globe. Forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are produced by the KNMI Probabilistic Empirical Prediction (K-PREP) system every month and disseminated via the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl). K-PREP is based on multiple linear regression and built on physical principles to the fullest extent with predictive information taken from the global CO2-equivalent concentration, large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and regional-scale information. K-PREP seasonal forecasts for the period 1981-2016 will be compared with corresponding dynamically generated forecasts produced by operational forecast systems. While there are many regions of the world where empirical forecast skill is extremely limited, several areas are identified where K-PREP offers comparable skill to dynamical systems. We discuss two key points in the future development and application of the K-PREP system: (a) the potential for K-PREP to provide a more useful basis for reference forecasts than those based on persistence or climatology, and (b) the added value of including K-PREP forecast information in multi-model forecast products, at least for known regions of good skill. We also discuss the potential development of stakeholder-driven applications of the K-PREP system, including empirical forecasts for circumboreal fire activity.

An improved car-following model from the perspective of driver’s forecast behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Da-Wei; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Ai, Wen-Huan

In this paper, a new car-following model considering effect of the driver’s forecast behavior is proposed based on the full velocity difference model (FVDM). Using the new model, we investigate the starting process of the vehicle motion under a traffic signal and find that the delay time of vehicle motion is reduced. Then the stability condition of the new model is derived and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is constructed to describe the traffic behavior near the critical point. Numerical simulation is compatible with the analysis of theory such as density wave, hysteresis loop, which shows that the new model is reasonable. The results show that considering the effect of driver’s forecast behavior can help to enhance the stability of traffic flow.

Sensitivity studies of the new Coastal Surge and Inundation Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, A. J.; Veeramony, J.

2012-12-01

This paper details the sensitivity studies involved in the validation of a coastal storm surge and inundation prediction system for operational use by the United States Navy. The system consists of the Delft3D-FLOW model coupled with the Delft3D-WAVE model. This dynamically coupled system will replace the current operational system, PC-Tides which does not include waves or other global ocean circulation. The Delft3D modeling system uses multiple nests to capture large, basin-scale circulation as well as coastal circulation and tightly couples waves and circulation at all scales. An additional benefit in using the presented system is that the Delft Dashboard, a graphical user interface product, can be used to simplify the set-up of Delft3D features such as the grid, elevation data, boundary forcing, and nesting. In this way less man-hours and training will be needed to perform inundation forecasts. The new coupled system is used to model storm surge and inundation produced by Hurricane Ike (2008) along the Gulf of Mexico coast. Due to the time constraints in an operational forecasting environment, storm simulations must be as streamlined as possible. Many factors such as model resolution, elevation data sets, parametrization of bottom friction, frequency of coupling between hydrodynamic and wave components, and atmospheric forcing among others can influence the run times and results of the simulations. To assess the sensitivity of the modeling system to these various components a "best" simulation was first developed. The best simulation consists of reanalysis atmospheric forcing in the form of Oceanweather wind and pressure fields. Further the wind field is modified by applying a directional land-masking to account for changes in land-roughness in the coastal zone. A number of air-sea drag coefficient formulations were tested to find the best match with observed results. An analysis of sea-level trends for the region reveals a seasonal trend of elevated sea level in the region which is applied throughout the Gulf of Mexico. The hydrodynamic model is run in 2D depth averaged mode with a spatially varying Manning's N coefficient based on land cover data. Multiple nests are used with resolutions varying between 0.1° and 0.004°. A blended bathymetry and topography dataset from multiple sources is used. Tidal constituents are obtained from the Oregon State University global model of ocean tides based on TOPEX7.2 satellite altimeter data. Simulated water level is compared to data from NOAA National Ocean Service observing stations throughout the region. Simulated inundation is compared to observations by means of Federal Emergency Management Agency High Water Mark (HWM) data. Results from the "best" simulation show very favorable comparison to observations. Simulated peak water levels are generally within 0.25 m and HWMs are well correlated with observations. Once the "best" simulation was established, sensitivity of the system to the wind model, drag coefficient, elevation dataset, initial water level, wave coupling, bottom roughness, and domain resolution was investigated. Each component has an influence on the simulation results, some much more than others. As expected the atmospheric forcing is the key component, however all other factors must be carefully chosen to obtain the best results.

Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

Study of atmospheric parameters measurements using MM-wave radar in synergy with LITE-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andrawis, Madeleine Y.

1994-01-01

The Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment, (LITE), has been developed, designed, and built by NASA Langley Research Center, to be flown on the space shuttle 'Discovery' on September 9, 1994. Lidar, which stands for light detecting and ranging, is a radar system that uses short pulses of laser light instead of radio waves in the case of the common radar. This space-based lidar offers atmospheric measurements of stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols, the planetary boundary layer, cloud top heights, and atmospheric temperature and density in the 10-40 km altitude range. A study is being done on the use, advantages, and limitations of a millimeterwave radar to be utilized in synergy with the Lidar system, for the LITE-2 experiment to be flown on a future space shuttle mission. The lower atmospheric attenuation, compared to infrared and optical frequencies, permits the millimeter-wave signals to penetrate through the clouds and measure multi-layered clouds, cloud thickness, and cloud-base height. These measurements would provide a useful input to radiation computations used in the operational numerical weather prediction models, and for forecasting. High power levels, optimum modulation, data processing, and high antenna gain are used to increase the operating range, while space environment, radar tradeoffs, and power availability are considered. Preliminary, numerical calculations are made, using the specifications of an experimental system constructed at Georgia Tech. The noncoherent 94 GHz millimeter-wave radar system has a pulsed output with peak value of 1 kW. The backscatter cross section of the particles to be measured, that are present in the volume covered by the beam footprint, is also studied.

Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Tolkova, Elena

2013-12-01

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay's normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.

Solar Atmosphere to Earth's Surface: Long Lead Time dB/dt Predictions with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Manchester, W.; Savani, N.; Sokolov, I.; van der Holst, B.; Jin, M.; Toth, G.; Liemohn, M. W.; Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

The future of space weather prediction depends on the community's ability to predict L1 values from observations of the solar atmosphere, which can yield hours of lead time. While both empirical and physics-based L1 forecast methods exist, it is not yet known if this nascent capability can translate to skilled dB/dt forecasts at the Earth's surface. This paper shows results for the first forecast-quality, solar-atmosphere-to-Earth's-surface dB/dt predictions. Two methods are used to predict solar wind and IMF conditions at L1 for several real-world coronal mass ejection events. The first method is an empirical and observationally based system to estimate the plasma characteristics. The magnetic field predictions are based on the Bz4Cast system which assumes that the CME has a cylindrical flux rope geometry locally around Earth's trajectory. The remaining plasma parameters of density, temperature and velocity are estimated from white-light coronagraphs via a variety of triangulation methods and forward based modelling. The second is a first-principles-based approach that combines the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL) model with the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). EEGGL specifies parameters for the Gibson-Low flux rope such that it erupts, driving a CME in the coronal model that reproduces coronagraph observations and propagates to 1AU. The resulting solar wind predictions are used to drive the operational Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for geospace. Following the configuration used by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, this setup couples the BATS-R-US global magnetohydromagnetic model to the Rice Convection Model (RCM) ring current model and a height-integrated ionosphere electrodynamics model. The long lead time predictions of dB/dt are compared to model results that are driven by L1 solar wind observations. Both are compared to real-world observations from surface magnetometers at a variety of geomagnetic latitudes. Metrics are calculated to examine how the simulated solar wind drivers impact forecast skill. These results illustrate the current state of long-lead-time forecasting and the promise of this technology for operational use.

Severe Weather Guide - Mediterranean Ports. 3. Catania

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

CLASSIFICATION 99.’iC,;ASSiPIED 1,NLIM!TED 0 SAME AS RPT 0 OTIC USERS UNCLASSIFIED a,. jAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDII.DUAL I22b TELEPHONE (include 4rea...event. (3) triigdprighro, a) Vessel control may be affected at slow SGA. Smal boa~peatios. ) Smll oati mabe restricted/curtailed in a strong event * 0...Pub. No. 603, Practical Methods for Observing and Forecasting Ocean Waves (Pierson, Neumann, and James , 1955). The information on fully arisen wave

The NRL relocatable ocean/acoustic ensemble forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, C.; Martin, P.; Cummings, J.; Jacobs, G.; Coelho, E.; Bishop, C.; Hong, X.; Peggion, G.; Fabre, J.

2009-04-01

A globally relocatable regional ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed to support rapid implementation of new regional forecast domains. The system is in operational use at the Naval Oceanographic Office for a growing number of regional and coastal implementations. The new system is the basis for an ocean acoustic ensemble forecast and adaptive sampling capability. We present an overview of the forecast system and the ocean ensemble and adaptive sampling methods. The forecast system consists of core ocean data analysis and forecast modules, software for domain configuration, surface and boundary condition forcing processing, and job control, and global databases for ocean climatology, bathymetry, tides, and river locations and transports. The analysis component is the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, a 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity using remotely-sensed SST, SSH, and sea ice concentration, plus in situ observations of temperature, salinity, and currents from ships, buoys, XBTs, CTDs, profiling floats, and autonomous gliders. The forecast component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). The system supports one-way nesting and multiple assimilation methods. The ensemble system uses the ensemble transform technique with error variance estimates from the NCODA analysis to represent initial condition error. Perturbed surface forcing or an atmospheric ensemble is used to represent errors in surface forcing. The ensemble transform Kalman filter is used to assess the impact of adaptive observations on future analysis and forecast uncertainty for both ocean and acoustic properties.

FVCOM one-way and two-way nesting using ESMF: Development and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jianhua; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.

2018-04-01

Built on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), the one-way and two-way nesting methods were implemented into the unstructured-grid Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). These methods help utilize the unstructured-grid multi-domain nesting of FVCOM with an aim at resolving the multi-scale physical and ecosystem processes. A detail of procedures on implementing FVCOM into ESMF was described. The experiments were made to validate and evaluate the performance of the nested-grid FVCOM system. The first was made for a wave-current interaction case with a two-domain nesting with an emphasis on qualifying a critical need of nesting to resolve a high-resolution feature near the coast and harbor with little loss in computational efficiency. The second was conducted for the pseudo river plume cases to examine the differences in the model-simulated salinity between one-way and two-way nesting approaches and evaluate the performance of mass conservative two-way nesting method. The third was carried out for the river plume case in the realistic geometric domain in Mass Bay, supporting the importance for having the two-way nesting for coastal-estuarine integrated modeling. The nesting method described in this paper has been used in the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)-a global-regional-coastal nesting FVCOM system that has been placed into the end-to-end forecast and hindcast operations since 2007.

Outstanding challenges in the seismological study of volcanic processes: Results from recent U.S. and European community-wide discussion workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, D. C.; Rodgers, M.; Mather, T. A.; Power, J. A.; Pyle, D. M.

2014-12-01

Observations of volcanically induced seismicity are essential for eruption forecasting and for real-time and near-real-time warnings of hazardous volcanic activity. Studies of volcanic seismicity and of seismic wave propagation also provide critical understanding of subsurface magmatic systems and the physical processes associated with magma genesis, transport, and eruption. However, desipite significant advances in recent years, our ability to successfully forecast volcanic eruptions and fully understand subsurface volcanic processes is limited by our current understanding of the source processes of volcano-seismic events, the effects on seismic wave propagation within volcanic structures, limited data, and even the non-standardized terminology used to describe seismic waveforms. Progress in volcano seismology is further hampered by inconsistent data formats and standards, lack of state-of-the-art hardware and professional technical staff, as well as a lack of widely adopted analysis techniques and software. Addressing these challenges will not only advance scientific understanding of volcanoes, but also will lead to more accurate forecasts and warnings of hazardous volcanic eruptions that would ultimately save lives and property world-wide. Two recent workshops held in Anchorage, Alaska, and Oxford, UK, represent important steps towards developing a relationship among members of the academic community and government agencies, focused around a shared, long-term vision for volcano seismology. Recommendations arising from the two workshops fall into six categories: 1) Ongoing and enhanced community-wide discussions, 2) data and code curation and dissemination, 3) code development, 4) development of resources for more comprehensive data mining, 5) enhanced strategic seismic data collection, and 6) enhanced integration of multiple datasets (including seismicity) to understand all states of volcano activity through space and time. As presented sequentially above, these steps can be regarded as a road map for galvanizing and strengthening the volcano seismological community to drive new scientific and technical progress over the next 5-10 years.

Value of long-term streamflow forecast to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated catchments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anghileri, Daniela; Voisin, Nathalie; Castelletti, Andrea F.

In this study, we develop a forecast-based adaptive control framework for Oroville reservoir, California, to assess the value of seasonal and inter-annual forecasts for reservoir operation.We use an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model. The optimal sequence of daily release decisions from the reservoir is then determined by Model Predictive Control, a flexible and adaptive optimization scheme.We assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with that based on climatology and a perfect forecast. In addition, we evaluate system performance based onmore » a synthetic forecast, which is designed to isolate the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast skill to the overall value of the ESP forecasts.Using the same ESP forecasts, we generalize our results by evaluating forecast value as a function of forecast skill, reservoir features, and demand. Our results show that perfect forecasts are valuable when the water demand is high and the reservoir is sufficiently large to allow for annual carry-over. Conversely, ESP forecast value is highest when the reservoir can shift water on a seasonal basis.On average, for the system evaluated here, the overall ESP value is 35% less than the perfect forecast value. The inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value. Improvements in the seasonal component of the ESP forecast would increase the overall ESP forecast value between 15 and 20%.« less

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

2012-09-01

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

Climatology of Global Swell-Atmosphere Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro

2016-04-01

At the ocean surface wind sea and swell waves coexist. Wind sea waves are locally generated growing waves strongly linked to the overlaying wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area, throughout entire ocean basins, are called swell. Swell waves do not receive energy from local wind. Ocean wind waves can be seen as the "gearbox" between the atmosphere and the ocean, and are of critical importance to the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, since they modulate most of the air-sea interaction processes and exchanges, particularly the exchange of momentum. This modulation is most of the times sea-state dependent, i.e., it is a function of the prevalence of one type of waves over the other. The wave age parameter, defined as the relative speed between the peak wave and the wind (c_p⁄U_10), has been largely used in different aspects of the air-sea interaction theory and in practical modeling solutions of wave-atmosphere coupled model systems. The wave age can be used to assess the development of the sea state but also the prevalence (domination) of wind sea or swell waves at the ocean surface. The presence of fast-running waves (swell) during light winds (at high wave age regimes) induces an upward momentum flux, directed from the water surface to the atmosphere. This upward directed momentum has an impact in the lower marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL): on the one hand it changes the vertical wind speed profile by accelerating the flow at the first few meters (inducing the so called "wave-driven wind"), and on the other hand it changes the overall MABL turbulence structure by limiting the wind shear - in some observed and modeled situations the turbulence is said to have "collapse". The swell interaction with the lower MABL is a function of the wave age but also of the swell steepness, since steeper waves loose more energy into the atmosphere as their energy attenuates. This interaction can be seen as highest in areas where swells are steepest, but also where the wind speed is lowest and consequently the wave age is high. A detailed global climatology of the wave age and swell steepness parameters, based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. It will be shown, in line with previous studies, that the global climatological patterns of the wave age confirm the global dominance of the World Ocean by swell waves. The areas of the ocean where the highest interaction of swell waves and the lower atmosphere can be expected are also presented.

Real-time emergency forecasting technique for situation management systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopytov, V. V.; Kharechkin, P. V.; Naumenko, V. V.; Tretyak, R. S.; Tebueva, F. B.

2018-05-01

The article describes the real-time emergency forecasting technique that allows increasing accuracy and reliability of forecasting results of any emergency computational model applied for decision making in situation management systems. Computational models are improved by the Improved Brown’s method applying fractal dimension to forecast short time series data being received from sensors and control systems. Reliability of emergency forecasting results is ensured by the invalid sensed data filtering according to the methods of correlation analysis.

Louisiana Airport System Plan aviation activity forecasts 1990-2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-07-01

This report documents the methodology used to develop the aviation activity forecasts prepared as a part of the update to the Louisiana Airport System Plan and provides Louisiana aviation forecasts for the years 1990 to 2010. In general, the forecast...

Real-time forecasting at weekly timescales of the SST and SLA of the Ligurian Sea with a satellite-based ocean forecasting (SOFT) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ÁLvarez, A.; Orfila, A.; Tintoré, J.

2004-03-01

Satellites are the only systems able to provide continuous information on the spatiotemporal variability of vast areas of the ocean. Relatively long-term time series of satellite data are nowadays available. These spatiotemporal time series of satellite observations can be employed to build empirical models, called satellite-based ocean forecasting (SOFT) systems, to forecast certain aspects of future ocean states. SOFT systems can predict satellite-observed fields at different timescales. The forecast skill of SOFT systems forecasting the sea surface temperature (SST) at monthly timescales has been extensively explored in previous works. In this work we study the performance of two SOFT systems forecasting, respectively, the SST and sea level anomaly (SLA) at weekly timescales, that is, providing forecasts of the weekly averaged SST and SLA fields with 1 week in advance. The SOFT systems were implemented in the Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean Sea). Predictions from the SOFT systems are compared with observations and with the predictions obtained from persistence models. Results indicate that the SOFT system forecasting the SST field is always superior in terms of predictability to persistence. Minimum prediction errors in the SST are obtained during winter and spring seasons. On the other hand, the biggest differences between the performance of SOFT and persistence models are found during summer and autumn. These changes in the predictability are explained on the basis of the particular variability of the SST field in the Ligurian Sea. Concerning the SLA field, no improvements with respect to persistence have been found for the SOFT system forecasting the SLA field.

Winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting system based on remote sensing and environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haiyang, Yu; Yanmei, Liu; Guijun, Yang; Xiaodong, Yang; Dong, Ren; Chenwei, Nie

2014-03-01

To achieve dynamic winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting in larger scale regions, the objective of this study was to design and develop a winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting system by using a remote sensing index and environmental factors. The winter wheat quality trend was forecasted before the harvest and quality was monitored after the harvest, respectively. The traditional quality-vegetation index from remote sensing monitoring and forecasting models were improved. Combining with latitude information, the vegetation index was used to estimate agronomy parameters which were related with winter wheat quality in the early stages for forecasting the quality trend. A combination of rainfall in May, temperature in May, illumination at later May, the soil available nitrogen content and other environmental factors established the quality monitoring model. Compared with a simple quality-vegetation index, the remote sensing monitoring and forecasting model used in this system get greatly improved accuracy. Winter wheat quality was monitored and forecasted based on the above models, and this system was completed based on WebGIS technology. Finally, in 2010 the operation process of winter wheat quality monitoring system was presented in Beijing, the monitoring and forecasting results was outputted as thematic maps.

3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

DOE PAGES

Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; ...

2015-06-23

We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid (Spanish Version)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo

This document is the Spanish version of 'Greening the Grid- Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation Improving System Operations'. It discusses improving system operations with forecasting with and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

Evaluation of W Phase CMT Based PTWC Real-Time Tsunami Forecast Model Using DART Observations: Events of the Last Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Duputel, Z.; Rivera, L. A.; Hayes, G. P.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Bouchard, R. H.; Mungov, G.

2017-12-01

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) began forecasting tsunamis in real-time using source parameters derived from real-time Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions in 2009. Both the USGS and PTWC typically obtain W-Phase CMT solutions for large earthquakes less than 30 minutes after earthquake origin time. Within seconds, and often before waves reach the nearest deep ocean bottom pressure sensor (DARTs), PTWC then generates a regional tsunami propagation forecast using its linear shallow water model. The model is initialized by the sea surface deformation that mimics the seafloor deformation based on Okada's (1985) dislocation model of a rectangular fault with a uniform slip. The fault length and width are empirical functions of the seismic moment. How well did this simple model perform? The DART records provide a very valuable dataset for model validation. We examine tsunami events of the last decade with earthquake magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 9.0 including some deep events for which tsunamis were not expected. Most of the forecast results were obtained during the events. We also include events from before the implementation of the WCMT method at USGS and PTWC, 2006-2009. For these events, WCMTs were computed retrospectively (Duputel et al. 2012). We also re-ran the model with a larger domain for some events to include far-field DARTs that recorded a tsunami with identical source parameters used during the events. We conclude that our model results, in terms of maximum wave amplitude, are mostly within a factor of two of the observed at DART stations, with an average error of less than 40% for most events, including the 2010 Maule and the 2011 Tohoku tsunamis. However, the simple fault model with a uniform slip is too simplistic for the Tohoku tsunami. We note model results are sensitive to centroid location and depth, especially if the earthquake is close to land or inland. For the 2016 M7.8 New Zealand earthquake the initial forecast underestimated the tsunami because the initial WCMT centroid was on land (the epicenter was inland but most of the slips occurred offshore). Later WCMTs did provide better forecast. The model also failed to reproduce the observed tsunamis from earthquake-generated landslides. Sea level observations during the events are crucial in determining whether or not a forecast needs to be adjusted.

Low-wave number analysis of observations and ensemble forecasts to develop metrics for the selection of most realistic members to study multi-scale interactions between the environment and the convective organization of hurricanes: Focus on Rapid Intensification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Chen, H.; Gopalakrishnan, S.; Haddad, Z. S.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the product of complex multi-scale processes and interactions. The role of the environment has long been recognized. However, recent research has shown that convective-scale processes in the hurricane core might also play a crucial role in determining TCs intensity and size. Several studies have linked Rapid Intensification to the characteristics of the convective clouds (shallow versus deep), their organization (isolated versus wide-spread) and their location with respect to dynamical controls (the vertical shear, the radius of maximum wind). Yet a third set of controls signifies the interaction between the storm-scale and large-scale processes. Our goal is to use observations and models to advance the still-lacking understanding of these processes. Recently, hurricane models have improved significantly. However, deterministic forecasts have limitations due to the uncertainty in the representation of the physical processes and initial conditions. A crucial step forward is the use of high-resolution ensembles. We adopt the following approach: i) generate a high resolution ensemble forecast using HWRF; ii) produce synthetic data (e.g. brightness temperature) from the model fields for direct comparison to satellite observations; iii) develop metrics to allow us to sub-select the realistic members of the ensemble, based on objective measures of the similarity between observed and forecasted structures; iv) for these most-realistic members, determine the skill in forecasting TCs to provide"guidance on guidance"; v) use the members with the best predictive skill to untangle the complex multi-scale interactions. We will report on the first three goals of our research, using forecasts and observations of hurricane Edouard (2014), focusing on RI. We will focus on describing the metrics for the selection of the most appropriate ensemble members, based on applying low-wave number analysis (WNA - Hristova-Veleva et al., 2016) to the observed and forecasted 2D fields to develop objective criteria for consistency. We investigate the WNA cartoons of environmental moisture, precipitation structure and surface convergence. We will present the preliminary selection of most skillful members and will outline our future goals - analyzing the multi-scale interactions using these members

Monitoring the performance of the next Climate Forecast System version 3, throughout its development stage at EMC/NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña, M.; Saha, S.; Wu, X.; Wang, J.; Tripp, P.; Moorthi, S.; Bhattacharjee, P.

2016-12-01

The next version of the operational Climate Forecast System (version 3, CFSv3) will be a fully coupled six-components system with diverse applications to earth system modeling, including weather and climate predictions. This system will couple the earth's atmosphere, land, ocean, sea-ice, waves and aerosols for both data assimilation and modeling. It will also use the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) software super structure to couple these components. The CFSv3 is part of the next Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which will unify the global prediction systems that are now operational at NCEP. The UGCS is being developed through the efforts of dedicated research and engineering teams and through coordination across many CPO/MAPP and NGGPS groups. During this development phase, the UGCS is being tested for seasonal purposes and undergoes frequent revisions. Each new revision is evaluated to quickly discover, isolate and solve problems that negatively impact its performance. In the UGCS-seasonal model, components (e.g., ocean, sea-ice, atmosphere, etc.) are coupled through a NEMS-based "mediator". In this numerical infrastructure, model diagnostics and forecast validation are carried out, both component by component, and as a whole. The next stage, model optimization, will require enhanced performance diagnostics tools to help prioritize areas of numerical improvements. After the technical development of the UGCS-seasonal is completed, it will become the first realization of the CFSv3. All future development of this system will be carried out by the climate team at NCEP, in scientific collaboration with the groups that developed the individual components, as well as the climate community. A unique challenge to evaluate this unified weather-climate system is the large number of variables, which evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. A small set of performance measures and scorecard displays are been created, and collaboration and software contributions from research and operational centers are being incorporated. A status of the CFSv3/UGCS-seasonal development and examples of its performance and measuring tools will be presented.

Assessing the viability of `over-the-loop' real-time short-to-medium range ensemble streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, E.; Mendoza, P. A.; Nijssen, B.; Newman, A. J.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J.; Nowak, K. C.

2016-12-01

Many if not most national operational short-to-medium range streamflow prediction systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow are automated, but others require the hands-on-effort of an experienced human forecaster. This approach evolved out of the need to correct for deficiencies in the models and datasets that were available for forecasting, and often leads to skillful predictions despite the use of relatively simple, conceptual models. On the other hand, the process is not reproducible, which limits opportunities to assess and incorporate process variations, and the effort required to make forecasts in this way is an obstacle to expanding forecast services - e.g., though adding new forecast locations or more frequent forecast updates, running more complex models, or producing forecast ensembles and hindcasts that can support verification. In the last decade, the hydrologic forecasting community has begun to develop more centralized, `over-the-loop' systems. The quality of these new forecast products will depend on their ability to leverage research in areas including earth system modeling, parameter estimation, data assimilation, statistical post-processing, weather and climate prediction, verification, and uncertainty estimation through the use of ensembles. Currently, the operational streamflow forecasting and water management communities have little experience with the strengths and weaknesses of over-the-loop approaches, even as the systems are being rolled out in major operational forecasting centers. There is thus a need both to evaluate these forecasting advances and to demonstrate their potential in a public arena, raising awareness in forecast user communities and development programs alike. To address this need, the National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the US Army Corps of Engineers, using the NCAR 'System for Hydromet Analysis, Research, and Prediction' (SHARP) to implement, assess and demonstrate real-time over-the-loop forecasts. We present early hindcast and verification results from SHARP for short to medium range streamflow forecasts in a number of US case study watersheds.

First Assessment of Itaipu Dam Ensemble Inflow Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Machado Vieira Lisboa, Auder; Gomes Villa Trinidad, Giovanni; Rógenes Monteiro Pontes, Paulo; Collischonn, Walter; Tucci, Carlos; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2017-04-01

Inflow forecasting for Hydropower Plants (HPP) Dams is one of the prominent uses for hydrological forecasts. A very important HPP in terms of energy generation for South America is the Itaipu Dam, located in the Paraná River, between Brazil and Paraguay countries, with a drainage area of 820.000km2. In this work, we present the development of an ensemble forecasting system for Itaipu, operational since November 2015. The system is based in the MGB-IPH hydrological model, includes hydrodynamics simulations of the main river, and is run every day morning forced by seven different rainfall forecasts: (i) CPTEC-ETA 15km; (ii) CPTEC-BRAMS 5km; (iii) SIMEPAR WRF Ferrier; (iv) SIMEPAR WRF Lin; (v) SIMEPAR WRF Morrison; (vi) SIMEPAR WRF WDM6; (vii) SIMEPAR MEDIAN. The last one (vii) corresponds to the median value of SIMEPAR WRF model versions (iii to vi) rainfall forecasts. Besides the developed system, the "traditional" method for inflow forecasting generation for the Itaipu Dam is also run every day. This traditional method consists in the approximation of the future inflow based on the discharge tendency of upstream telemetric gauges. Nowadays, after all the forecasts are run, the hydrology team of Itaipu develop a consensus forecast, based on all obtained results, which is the one used for the Itaipu HPP Dam operation. After one year of operation a first evaluation of the Ensemble Forecasting System was conducted. Results show that the system performs satisfactory for rising flows up to five days lead time. However, some false alarms were also issued by most ensemble members in some cases. And not in all cases the system performed better than the traditional method, especially during hydrograph recessions. In terms of meteorological forecasts, some members usage are being discontinued. In terms of the hydrodynamics representation, it seems that a better information of rivers cross section could improve hydrographs recession curves forecasts. Those opportunities for improvements are currently being addressed in the system next update.

Design of a Forecasting Service System for Monitoring of Vulnerabilities of Sensor Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae-Gu; Kim, Jong Hyun; Seo, Dong Il; Kim, Seoksoo

This study aims to reduce security vulnerabilities of sensor networks which transmit data in an open environment by developing a forecasting service system. The system is to remove or monitor causes of breach incidents in advance. To that end, this research first examines general security vulnerabilities of sensor networks and analyzes characteristics of existing forecasting systems. Then, 5 steps of a forecasting service system are proposed in order to improve security responses.

Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Galelli, Stefano

2017-09-01

Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made - namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.

Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.

Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strongmore » relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.« less

Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations

DOE PAGES

Turner, Sean W. D.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; ...

2017-09-28

Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strongmore » relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.« less

Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

2013-04-01

The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold models. Building on the experience gained in designing, implementing, and operating national and regional landslide forecasting systems in Italy, and on a preliminary review of the existing literature on regional landslide early warning systems, the talk discusses concepts, limitations and challenges inherent to the design of reliable forecasting and early warning systems for rainfall-triggered landslides, the evaluation of the performances of the systems, and on problems related to the use of the forecasts and the issuing of landslide warnings. Several of the typical elements of an operational landslide forecasting system are considered, including: (i) the rainfall and landslide information used to establish the threshold models, (ii) the methods and tools used to define the empirical rainfall thresholds, and their associated uncertainty, (iii) the quality (e.g., the temporal and spatial resolution) of the rainfall information used for operational forecasting, including rain gauge and radar measurements, satellite estimates, and quantitative weather forecasts, (iv) the ancillary information used to prepare the forecasts, including e.g., the terrain subdivisions and the landslide susceptibility zonations, (v) the criteria used to transform the forecasts into landslide warnings and the methods used to communicate the warnings, and (vi) the criteria and strategies adopted to evaluate the performances of the systems, and to define minimum or optimal performance levels.

The relevance of the whitecapping term in wave forecasting. An analysis for the wave period of the Catalan coast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallares, Elena; Espino, Manuel; Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín

2013-04-01

The Catalan Coast is located in the North Western Mediterranean Sea. It is a region with highly heterogeneous wind and wave conditions, characterized by a microtidal environment, and economically very dependent from the sea and the coastal zone activities. Because some of the main coastal conflicts and management problems occur within a few kilometers of the land-ocean boundary, the level of resolution and accuracy from meteo-oceanographic predictions required is not currently available. The current work is focused on improving high resolution wave forecasting very near the coast. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate the waves in the area, and various buoy data and field campaigns are used to validate the results. The simulations are structured in four different domains covering all the North Western Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution from 9 km to 250 meters in coastal areas. Previous results show that the significant wave height is almost always underpredicted in this area, and the underprediction is higher during storm events. However, the error in the peak period and the mean period is almost always constantly under predicted with a bias between one and two seconds, plus some residual error. This systematic error represents 40% of the total error. To improve the initial results, the whiteccaping dissipation term is studied and modified. In the SWAN model, the whitecapping is mainly controlled by the steepness of the waves. Although the by default parameter is not depending on the wave number, there is a new formulation in the last SWAN version (40.81) to include it in the calculations. Previous investigations show that adjusting the dependence for the wave number improved the predictions for the wave energy at lower frequencies, solving the underprediction of the period mentioned before. In the present work different simulations are developed to calibrate the new formulation, obtaining important improvements in the results. For the significant wave height, the results are only modified during the storm events, when the wave height is higher. The main improvement is shown in the period, with a reduction of the bias mentioned before from -1.45 to 0.19 seconds on average for the more coastal locations.

Verification results for the Spectral Ocean Wave Model (SOWM) by means of significant wave height measurements made by the GEOS-3 spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.; Salfi, R. E.

1978-01-01

Significant wave heights estimated from the shape of the return pulse wave form of the altimeter on GEOS-3 for forty-four orbit segments obtained during 1975 and 1976 are compared with the significant wave heights specified by the spectral ocean wave model (SOWM), which is the presently operational numerical wave forecasting model at the Fleet Numerical Weather Central. Except for a number of orbit segments with poor agreement and larger errors, the SOWM specifications tended to be biased from 0.5 to 1.0 meters too low and to have RMS errors of 1.0 to 1.4 meters. The much fewer larger errors can be attributed to poor wind data for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere oceans. The bias can be attributed to the somewhat too light winds used to generate the waves in the model. Other sources of error are identified in the equatorial and trade wind areas.

Emergency response and field observation activities of geoscientists in California (USA) during the September 29, 2009, Samoa Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Rick I.; Dengler, Lori A.; Goltz, James D.; Legg, Mark R.; Miller, Kevin M.; Ritchie, Andy; Whitmore, Paul M.

2011-07-01

State geoscientists (geologists, geophysicists, seismologists, and engineers) in California work closely with federal, state and local government emergency managers to help prepare coastal communities for potential impacts from a tsunami before, during, and after an event. For teletsunamis, as scientific information (forecast model wave heights, first-wave arrival times, etc.) from NOAA's West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center is made available, federal- and state-level emergency managers must help convey this information in a concise, comprehensible and timely manner to local officials who ultimately determine the appropriate response activities for their jurisdictions. During the September 29, 2009 Tsunami Advisory for California, government geoscientists assisted the California Emergency Management Agency by providing technical assistance during teleconference meetings with NOAA and other state and local emergency managers prior to the arrival of the tsunami. This technical assistance included background information on anticipated tidal conditions when the tsunami was set to arrive, wave height estimates from state-modeled scenarios for areas not covered by NOAA's forecast models, and clarifying which regions of the state were at greatest risk. Over the last year, state geoscientists have started to provide additional assistance: 1) working closely with NOAA to simplify their tsunami alert messaging and expand their forecast modeling coverage; 2) creating "playbooks" containing information from existing tsunami scenarios for local emergency managers to reference during an event; and, 3) developing a state-level information "clearinghouse" and pre-tsunami field response team to assist local officials as well as observe and report tsunami effects. Activities of geoscientists were expanded during the more recent Tsunami Advisory on February 27, 2010, including deploying a geologist from the California Geological Survey as a field observer who provided information back to emergency managers.

Role of State Tsunami Geoscientists during Emergency Response Activities: Example from the State of California (USA) during September 29, 2009, Samoa Tsunami Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Dengler, L. A.; Goltz, J. D.; Legg, M.; Miller, K. M.; Parrish, J. G.; Whitmore, P.

2009-12-01

California tsunami geoscientists work closely with federal, state and local government emergency managers to help prepare coastal communities for potential impacts from a tsunami before, during, and after an event. For teletsunamis, as scientific information (forecast model wave heights, first-wave arrival times, etc.) from NOAA’s West Coast and Alaska’s Tsunami Warning Center is made available, state-level emergency managers must help convey this information in a concise and comprehendible manner to local officials who ultimately determine the appropriate response activities for their jurisdictions. During the Samoa Tsunami Advisory for California on September 29, 2009, geoscientists from the California Geological Survey and Humboldt State University assisted the California Emergency Management Agency in this information transfer by providing technical assistance during teleconference meetings with NOAA and other state and local emergency managers prior to the arrival of the tsunami. State geoscientists gathered additional background information on anticipated tidal conditions and wave heights for areas not covered by NOAA’s forecast models. The participation of the state geoscientists in the emergency response process resulted in clarifying which regions were potentially at-risk, as well as those having a low risk from the tsunami. Future tsunami response activities for state geoscientists include: 1) working closely with NOAA to simplify their tsunami alert messaging and expand their forecast modeling coverage, 2) creation of “playbooks” containing information from existing tsunami scenarios for local emergency managers to reference during an event, and 3) development of a state-level information “clearinghouse” and pre-tsunami field response team to assist local officials as well as observe and report tsunami effects.

Distributed HUC-based modeling with SUMMA for ensemble streamflow forecasting over large regional domains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, M.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.; Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.

2017-12-01

Most operational streamflow forecasting systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow require an experienced human forecaster. But this approach faces challenges surrounding process reproducibility, hindcasting capability, and extension to large domains. The operational hydrologic community is increasingly moving towards `over-the-loop' (completely automated) large-domain simulations yet recent developments indicate a widespread lack of community knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of such systems for forecasting. A realistic representation of land surface hydrologic processes is a critical element for improving forecasts, but often comes at the substantial cost of forecast system agility and efficiency. While popular grid-based models support the distributed representation of land surface processes, intermediate-scale Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-based modeling could provide a more efficient and process-aligned spatial discretization, reducing the need for tradeoffs between model complexity and critical forecasting requirements such as ensemble methods and comprehensive model calibration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the USACE to implement, assess, and demonstrate real-time, over-the-loop distributed streamflow forecasting for several large western US river basins and regions. In this presentation, we present early results from short to medium range hydrologic and streamflow forecasts for the Pacific Northwest (PNW). We employ a real-time 1/16th degree daily ensemble model forcings as well as downscaled Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) meteorological forecasts. These datasets drive an intermediate-scale configuration of the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) model, which represents the PNW using over 11,700 HUCs. The system produces not only streamflow forecasts (using the MizuRoute channel routing tool) but also distributed model states such as soil moisture and snow water equivalent. We also describe challenges in distributed model-based forecasting, including the application and early results of real-time hydrologic data assimilation.

Applying temporal abstraction and case-based reasoning to predict approaching influenza waves.

PubMed

Schmidt, Rainer; Gierl, Lothar

2002-01-01

The goal of the TeCoMed project is to send early warnings against forthcoming waves or even epidemics of infectious diseases, especially of influenza, to interested practitioners, pharmacists etc. in the German federal state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The forecast of these waves is based on written confirmations of unfitness for work of the main German health insurance company. Since influenza waves are difficult to predict because of their cyclic but not regular behaviour, statistical methods based on the computation of mean values are not helpful. Instead, we have developed a prognostic model that makes use of similar former courses. Our method combines Case-based Reasoning with Temporal Abstraction to decide whether early warning is appropriate.

Predicting dangerous ocean waves with spaceborne synthetic aperture radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beal, R. C.

1984-01-01

It is pointed out that catastrophes, related to the occurrence of strong winds and large ocean waves, can consume more lives and property than most naval battles. The generation of waves by wind are considered, Pierson et al. (1955) have incorporated statistical concepts into a wave forecast model. The concept of an 'ocean wave spectrum' was introduced, with the wind acting independently on each Fourier component. However, even after 30 years of research and debate, the generation, propagation, and dissipation of the spectrum under arbitrary conditions continue to be controversial. It has now been found that spaceborne SAR has a surprising ability to precisely monitor spatially evolving wind and wave fields. Approaches to overcome certain weaknesses of the SAR method are discussed, taking into account the second Shuttle Imaging Radar experiment, and a possible long-term solution provided by Spectrasat. Spectrasat should be a low-altitude (200 to 250 km) satellite with active drag compensation.

Satellite Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves Associated With the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Lars; Wu, Xue; Alexander, M. Joan

2018-02-01

Forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones is a challenging problem. Rapid intensification is often preceded by the formation of "hot towers" near the eyewall. Driven by strong release of latent heat, hot towers are high-reaching tropical cumulonimbus clouds that penetrate the tropopause. Hot towers are a potentially important source of stratospheric gravity waves. Using 13.5 years (2002-2016) of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations of stratospheric gravity waves and tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, we found empirical evidence that stratospheric gravity wave activity is associated with the intensification of tropical cyclones. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship data showed that strong gravity wave events occurred about twice as often for tropical cyclone intensification compared to storm weakening. Observations of stratospheric gravity waves, which are not affected by obscuring tropospheric clouds, may become an important future indicator of storm intensification.

Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

2016-02-01

For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response System (FFWRS): an alternate for nonstructural flood management in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Rashed

2005-06-01

Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts--the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh--and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS-i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis-has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.

New River Inlet DRI: Observations and Modeling of Flow and Material Exchange & Field and Numerical Study of the Columbia River Mouth

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

analyze the MCR drifter, in situ mini-catamaran, pressure, and USGS tripod observations; • describe the tidal chocking behavior at New River Inlet (NRI...i.e. waves , wind and potentially stratification) APPROACH Our approach is to collect field observations to evaluate the sensitivity of Delft3D at...forecast model using the predicted tides, wind, wave and river discharge conditions to optimize spatial coverage and drifter retrieval operations. On

A new forecast presentation tool for offshore contractors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørgensen, M.

2009-09-01

Contractors working off shore are often very sensitive to both sea and weather conditions, and it's essential that they have easy access to reliable information on coming conditions to enable planning of when to start or shut down offshore operations to avoid loss of life and materials. Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI, recently, in cooperation with business partners in the field, developed a new application to accommodate that need. The "Marine Forecast Service” is a browser based forecast presentation tool. It provides an interface for the user to enable easy and quick access to all relevant meteorological and oceanographic forecasts and observations for a given area of interest. Each customer gains access to the application via a standard login/password procedure. Once logged in, the user can inspect animated forecast maps of parameters like wind, gust, wave height, swell and current among others. Supplementing the general maps, the user can choose to look at forecast graphs for each of the locations where the user is running operations. These forecast graphs can also be overlaid with the user's own in situ observations, if such exist. Furthermore, the data from the graphs can be exported as data files that the customer can use in his own applications as he desires. As part of the application, a forecaster's view on the current and near future weather situation is presented to the user as well, adding further value to the information presented through maps and graphs. Among other features of the product, animated radar and satellite images could be mentioned. And finally the application provides the possibility of a "second opinion” through traditional weather charts from another recognized provider of weather forecasts. The presentation will provide more detailed insights into the contents of the applications as well as some of the experiences with the product.

A Diagnostics Tool to detect ensemble forecast system anomaly and guide operational decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, G. H.; Srivastava, A.; Shrestha, E.; Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Draijer, S.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic community is moving toward using ensemble forecasts to take uncertainty into account during the decision-making process. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) implements several types of ensemble forecasts in their decision-making process: ensemble products for a statistical model (Hirsch and enhanced Hirsch); the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) forecasts based on the classical Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique; and the new NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS) forecasts. To remove structural error and apply the forecasts to additional forecast points, the DEP post processes both the AHPS and the HEFS forecasts. These ensemble forecasts provide mass quantities of complex data, and drawing conclusions from these forecasts is time-consuming and difficult. The complexity of these forecasts also makes it difficult to identify system failures resulting from poor data, missing forecasts, and server breakdowns. To address these issues, we developed a diagnostic tool that summarizes ensemble forecasts and provides additional information such as historical forecast statistics, forecast skill, and model forcing statistics. This additional information highlights the key information that enables operators to evaluate the forecast in real-time, dynamically interact with the data, and review additional statistics, if needed, to make better decisions. We used Bokeh, a Python interactive visualization library, and a multi-database management system to create this interactive tool. This tool compiles and stores data into HTML pages that allows operators to readily analyze the data with built-in user interaction features. This paper will present a brief description of the ensemble forecasts, forecast verification results, and the intended applications for the diagnostic tool.

A real-time evaluation and demonstration of strategies for 'Over-The-Loop' ensemble streamflow forecasting in US watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Andy; Clark, Elizabeth; Mendoza, Pablo; Nijssen, Bart; Newman, Andy; Clark, Martyn; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

Many if not most national operational streamflow prediction systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach that require the hands-on-effort of an experienced human forecaster. This approach evolved from the need to correct for long-standing deficiencies in the models and datasets used in forecasting, and the practice often leads to skillful flow predictions despite the use of relatively simple, conceptual models. Yet the 'in-the-loop' forecast process is not reproducible, which limits opportunities to assess and incorporate new techniques systematically, and the effort required to make forecasts in this way is an obstacle to expanding forecast services - e.g., though adding new forecast locations or more frequent forecast updates, running more complex models, or producing forecast and hindcasts that can support verification. In the last decade, the hydrologic forecasting community has begun develop more centralized, 'over-the-loop' systems. The quality of these new forecast products will depend on their ability to leverage research in areas including earth system modeling, parameter estimation, data assimilation, statistical post-processing, weather and climate prediction, verification, and uncertainty estimation through the use of ensembles. Currently, many national operational streamflow forecasting and water management communities have little experience with the strengths and weaknesses of over-the-loop approaches, even as such systems are beginning to be deployed operationally in centers such as ECMWF. There is thus a need both to evaluate these forecasting advances and to demonstrate their potential in a public arena, raising awareness in forecast user communities and development programs alike. To address this need, the US National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the US Army Corps of Engineers, using the NCAR 'System for Hydromet Analysis Research and Prediction Applications' (SHARP) to implement, assess and demonstrate real-time over-the-loop ensemble flow forecasts in a range of US watersheds. The system relies on fully ensemble techniques, including: an 100-member ensemble of meteorological model forcings and an ensemble particle filter data assimilation for initializing watershed states; analog/regression-based downscaling of ensemble weather forecasts from GEFS; and statistical post-processing of ensemble forecast outputs, all of which run in real-time within a workflow managed by ECWMF's ecFlow libraries over large US regional domains. We describe SHARP and present early hindcast and verification results for short to seasonal range streamflow forecasts in a number of US case study watersheds.

Forecasting, Forecasting

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1987-01-01

Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

It's the Physics: Organized Complexity in the Arctic/Midlatitude Weather Controversy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Francis, J. A.; Wang, M.

2017-12-01

There is intense scientific and public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact mid-latitude weather. Despite numerous workshops and a growing literature, convergence of understanding is lacking, with major objections about possible large impacts within the scientific community. Yet research on the Arctic as a new potential driver in improving subseasonal forecasting at midlatitudes remains a priority. A recent review laid part of the controversy on shortcomings in experimental design and ill-suited metrics, such as examining the influence of only sea-ice loss rather than overall Arctic temperature amplification, and/or calculating averages over large regions, long time periods, or many ensemble members that would tend to obscure event-like Arctic connections. The present analysis lays the difficulty at a deeper level owing to the inherently complex physics. Jet-stream dynamics and weather linkages on the scale of a week to months has characteristics of an organized complex system, with large-scale processes that operate in patterned, quasi-geostrophic ways but whose component feedbacks are continually changing. Arctic linkages may be state dependent, i.e., relationships may be more robust in one atmospheric wave pattern than another, generating intermittency. The observational network is insufficient to fully initialize such a system and the inherent noise obscures linkage signals, leading to an underdetermined problem; often more than one explanation can fit the data. Further, the problem may be computationally irreducible; the only way to know the result of these interactions is to trace out their path over time. Modeling is a suggested approach, but at present it is unclear whether previous model studies fully resolve anticipated complexity. The jet stream from autumn to early winter is characterized by non-linear interactions among enhanced atmospheric planetary waves, irregular transitions between the zonal and meridional flows, and the maintenance of atmospheric blocks (near stationary large amplitude atmospheric waves). For weather forecast improvement, but not necessarily to elucidate mechanism of linkages, a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) approach is appropriate; such is the plan for the upcoming Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP).

Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of the year and for lead times up to 6 months. The forecasted discharges are compared with observed monthly streamflow records using the ensemble verification measures Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world.

Delensing CMB polarization with external datasets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kendrick M.; Hanson, Duncan; LoVerde, Marilena

2012-06-01

One of the primary scientific targets of current and future CMB polarization experiments is the search for a stochastic background of gravity waves in the early universe. As instrumental sensitivity improves, the limiting factor will eventually be B-mode power generated by gravitational lensing, which can be removed through use of so-called ''delensing'' algorithms. We forecast prospects for delensing using lensing maps which are obtained externally to CMB polarization: either from large-scale structure observations, or from high-resolution maps of CMB temperature. We conclude that the forecasts in either case are not encouraging, and that significantly delensing large-scale CMB polarization requires high-resolutionmore » polarization maps with sufficient sensitivity to measure the lensing B-mode. We also present a simple formalism for including delensing in CMB forecasts which is computationally fast and agrees well with Monte Carlos.« less

Risky Business: Development, Communication and Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2012-12-01

Inter-seasonal and longer hydroclimatic forecasts have been made increasingly in the last two decades following the increase in ENSO activity since the early 1980s and the success in seasonal ENSO forecasting. Yet, the number of examples of systematic use of these forecasts and their incorporation into water systems operation continue to be few. This may be due in part to the limited skill in such forecasts over much of the world, but is also likely due to the limited evolution of methods and opportunities to "safely" use uncertain forecasts. There has been a trend to rely more on "physically based" rather than "physically informed" empirical forecasts, and this may in part explain the limited success in developing usable products in more locations. Given the limited skill, forecasters have tended to "dumb" down their forecasts - either formally or subjectively shrinking the forecasts towards climatology, or reducing them to tercile forecasts that serve to obscure the potential information in the forecast. Consequently, the potential utility of such forecasts for decision making is compromised. Water system operating rules are often designed to be robust in the face of historical climate variability, and consequently are adapted to the potential conditions that a forecast seeks to inform. In such situations, there is understandable reluctance by managers to use the forecasts as presented, except in special cases where an alternate course of action is pragmatically appealing in any case. In this talk, I review opportunities to present targeted forecasts for use with decision systems that directly address climate risk and the risk induced by unbiased yet uncertain forecasts, focusing especially on extreme events and water allocation in a competitive environment. Examples from Brazil and India covering surface and ground water conjunctive use strategies that could potentially be insured and lead to improvements over the traditional system operation and resource allocation are provided.

Wave Processes in Arctic Seas, Observed from TerraSAR-X

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Susanne Lehner German Aerospace Center Maritime Safety and Security Lab Henrich-Focke-Str. 4 28199 Bremen Germany phone: 0049 421/ 24420...of high resolution sea state forecast models in the German Bight, The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial

A global flash flood forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-04-01

The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial resolution appropriate to the NWP system. We then demonstrate how these warning areas could eventually complement existing global systems such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to give warnings of flash floods. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating a global flash flood forecasting system based on forecasts from existing global NWP systems. Future developments, in post-processing for example, will need to address an under-prediction bias, for extreme point rainfall, that is innate to current-generation global models.

Short-Term Distribution System State Forecast Based on Optimal Synchrophasor Sensor Placement and Extreme Learning Machine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen

This paper proposes an approach for distribution system state forecasting, which aims to provide an accurate and high speed state forecasting with an optimal synchrophasor sensor placement (OSSP) based state estimator and an extreme learning machine (ELM) based forecaster. Specifically, considering the sensor installation cost and measurement error, an OSSP algorithm is proposed to reduce the number of synchrophasor sensor and keep the whole distribution system numerically and topologically observable. Then, the weighted least square (WLS) based system state estimator is used to produce the training data for the proposed forecaster. Traditionally, the artificial neural network (ANN) and support vectormore » regression (SVR) are widely used in forecasting due to their nonlinear modeling capabilities. However, the ANN contains heavy computation load and the best parameters for SVR are difficult to obtain. In this paper, the ELM, which overcomes these drawbacks, is used to forecast the future system states with the historical system states. The proposed approach is effective and accurate based on the testing results.« less

An ensemble forecast of the South China Sea monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Tewari, Mukul; Bensman, Ed; Han, Wei; Zhang, Zhan; Lau, William K. M.

1999-05-01

This paper presents a generalized ensemble forecast procedure for the tropical latitudes. Here we propose an empirical orthogonal function-based procedure for the definition of a seven-member ensemble. The wind and the temperature fields are perturbed over the global tropics. Although the forecasts are made over the global belt with a high-resolution model, the emphasis of this study is on a South China Sea monsoon. Over this domain of the South China Sea includes the passage of a Tropical Storm, Gary, that moved eastwards north of the Philippines. The ensemble forecast handled the precipitation of this storm reasonably well. A global model at the resolution Triangular Truncation 126 waves is used to carry out these seven forecasts. The evaluation of the ensemble of forecasts is carried out via standard root mean square errors of the precipitation and the wind fields. The ensemble average is shown to have a higher skill compared to a control experiment, which was a first analysis based on operational data sets over both the global tropical and South China Sea domain. All of these experiments were subjected to physical initialization which provides a spin-up of the model rain close to that obtained from satellite and gauge-based estimates. The results furthermore show that inherently much higher skill resides in the forecast precipitation fields if they are averaged over area elements of the order of 4° latitude by 4° longitude squares.

A probabilistic drought forecasting framework: A combined dynamical and statistical approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Zarekarizi, Mahkameh

In order to improve drought forecasting skill, this study develops a probabilistic drought forecasting framework comprised of dynamical and statistical modeling components. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of data assimilation to quantify initial condition uncertainty with the Monte Carlo ensemble members, rather than relying entirely on the hydrologic model or land surface model to generate a single deterministic initial condition, as currently implemented in the operational drought forecasting systems. Next, the initial condition uncertainty is quantified through data assimilation and coupled with a newly developed probabilistic drought forecasting model using a copula function. The initialmore » condition at each forecast start date are sampled from the data assimilation ensembles for forecast initialization. Finally, seasonal drought forecasting products are generated with the updated initial conditions. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed drought forecasting system, with an application in Columbia River Basin, Pacific Northwest, United States. Results from both synthetic and real case studies suggest that the proposed drought forecasting system significantly improves the seasonal drought forecasting skills and can facilitate the state drought preparation and declaration, at least three months before the official state drought declaration.« less

Development, Implementation, and Skill Assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

USA) 2011 Abstract The NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System ( GLOFS ) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather...Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) in Silver Spring, MD. GLOFS has been making operational nowcasts and forecasts at CO-OPS... GLOFS ) uses near-real-time atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water

Development of decision support system for oil spill management in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liubartseva, Svitlana; Coppini, Giovanni; Pinardi, Nadia; De Dominicis, Michela; Marra, Palmalisa; Lecci, Rita; Turrisi, Giuseppe; Creti, Sergio; Martinelli, Sara; Agostini, Paola; Palermo, Francesco

2016-04-01

Possible oil spill accidents and operational pollution could have severe impacts on the Mediterranean basin. It is therefore crucial to provide decision makers, stakeholders, and public with trustworthy DSS (Decision Support System) based on the environmental monitoring, state-of-the-art modeling and innovative technology platforms. Innovative web-based decision support system, called WITOL (Where Is The Oil http://www.witoil.com), has been developed to maintain emergency management in case of oil spill accidents. WITOIL embraces (1) Lagrangian oil spill model MEDSLIK-II (De Dominicis et al., 2013 http://medslikii.bo.ingv.it) coupled with the basin-scale and regional operational oceanographic services; (2) two-modular block of oil spill forecast and uncertainty evaluation; (3) user visualization tool including web and mobile interface with visualization of geospatial information by means of Google Maps. Service-oriented approach plays a key role in the WITOIL DSS development. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and in dynamic service delivery. Client part of WITOIL is presented by a 8-language GUI (Graphical User Interface) supplied with a great variety of user services including a video tutorial (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qj_GokYy8MU). GUI allows users to configure and activate the system, visualize the results using Google Maps, and save them afterwards. Not only does a new generation of DSS require the oil spill forecast, but it also needs the evaluation of uncertainty, which is critical for efficient response, recovery, and mitigation. Uncertainty in prediction of the oil transport and transformation stems from the uncertain environment and data-sparse. A new methodology of uncertainty calculation with respect to initial conditions is incorporated in WITOIL DSS. The results are presented in probability terms. Special application to Android has been implemented to support users involved in the field operations. The system is developed as a part of TESSA Project portfolio providing the unified access to others services. Thus, SEACONDITIONS (http://www.sea-conditions.com) performs visualization and on-line delivery of forecast of surface currents, sea surface temperature, significant wave height and direction, wave period and direction; air temperature, surface pressure, precipitation, cloud coverage, wind speed, etc. Apart from the basin scale visualization SEACONDITIONS supports the zooming capability. User feedback reports from fishermen, port authorities including Coast Guard, offshore companies, aquatic and coastal tourism managers, and academia have been collected and used for the system improvements. User-friendliness of GUI, tooltips, an opportunity to vary the advanced parameters, efficiency of the visualization tool, and a help section were appreciated in these reports. In accordance with the users' requirements, a to-do list is composed for the further development of WITOIL. This work was performed in the framework of the TESSA Project (Sviluppo di TEcnologie per la Situational Sea Awareness) supported by PON (Ricerca & Competitività 2007-2013) cofunded by UE (Fondo Europeo di sviluppo regionale), MIUR (Ministero Italiano dell'Università e della Ricerca), and MSE (Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico). References De Dominicis, M., Pinardi, N., Zodiatis, G., and Lardner, R., 2013. MEDSLIK-II, a Lagrangian marine surface oil spill model for short term forecasting - Part 1: Theory. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 1851-1869.

The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

PubMed Central

Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. PMID:27219341

The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

PubMed

Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

2016-07-12

To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental Forecasts of Wildfire Pollution at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlovic, Radenko; Beaulieu, Paul-Andre; Chen, Jack; Landry, Hugo; Cousineau, Sophie; Moran, Michael

2016-04-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations division (CMCO) has been running an experimental North American air quality forecast system with near-real-time wildfire emissions since 2014. This system, named FireWork, also takes anthropogenic and other natural emission sources into account. FireWork 48-hour forecasts are provided to CMCO forecasters and external partners in Canada and the U.S. twice daily during the wildfire season. This system has proven to be very useful in capturing short- and long-range smoke transport from wildfires over North America. Several upgrades to the FireWork system have been made since 2014 to accommodate the needs of operational AQ forecasters and to improve system performance. In this talk we will present performance statistics and some case studies for the 2014 and 2015 wildfire seasons. We will also describe current limitations of the FireWork system and ongoing and future work planned for this air quality forecast system.

A novel method for the extraction of local gravity wave parameters from gridded three-dimensional data: description, validation, and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoon, Lena; Zülicke, Christoph

2018-05-01

For the local diagnosis of wave properties, we develop, validate, and apply a novel method which is based on the Hilbert transform. It is called Unified Wave Diagnostics (UWaDi). It provides the wave amplitude and three-dimensional wave number at any grid point for gridded three-dimensional data. UWaDi is validated for a synthetic test case comprising two different wave packets. In comparison with other methods, the performance of UWaDi is very good with respect to wave properties and their location. For a first practical application of UWaDi, a minor sudden stratospheric warming on 30 January 2016 is chosen. Specifying the diagnostics for hydrostatic inertia-gravity waves in analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, we detect the local occurrence of gravity waves throughout the middle atmosphere. The local wave characteristics are discussed in terms of vertical propagation using the diagnosed local amplitudes and wave numbers. We also note some hints on local inertia-gravity wave generation by the stratospheric jet from the detection of shallow slow waves in the vicinity of its exit region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Cui, Mingjian; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

The large variability and uncertainty in wind power generation present a concern to power system operators, especially given the increasing amounts of wind power being integrated into the electric power system. Large ramps, one of the biggest concerns, can significantly influence system economics and reliability. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) was to improve the accuracy of forecasts and to evaluate the economic benefits of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the ramp forecasting accuracy gained by improving the performance of short-term wind power forecasting. This study focuses on the WFIP southern study region, which encompasses most ofmore » the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) territory, to compare the experimental WFIP forecasts to the existing short-term wind power forecasts (used at ERCOT) at multiple spatial and temporal scales. The study employs four significant wind power ramping definitions according to the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental WFIP forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting. This improvement can result in substantial costs savings and power system reliability enhancements.« less

Improving Estimates of Regional Infrasound Propagation by Incorporating Three-Dimensional Weather Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, M. H.; Alter, R. E.; Swearingen, M. E.; Wilson, D. K.

2017-12-01

Many larger sources, such as volcanic eruptions and nuclear detonations, produce infrasound (acoustic waves with a frequency lower than humans can hear, namely 0.1-20 Hz) that can propagate over global scales. But many smaller infrastructure sources, such as bridges, dams, and buildings, also produce infrasound, though with a lower amplitude that tends to propagate only over regional scales (up to 150 km). In order to accurately calculate regional-scale infrasound propagation, we have incorporated high-resolution, three-dimensional forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model into a signal propagation modeling system called Environmental Awareness for Sensor and Emitter Employment (EASEE), developed at the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center. To quantify the improvement of infrasound propagation predictions with more realistic weather data, we conducted sensitivity studies with different propagation ranges and horizontal resolutions and compared them to default predictions with no weather model data. We describe the process of incorporating WRF output into EASEE for conducting these acoustic propagation simulations and present the results of the aforementioned sensitivity studies.

The Vector Electric Field Instrument on the C/NOFS Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfaff, R.; Kujawski, J.; Uribe, P.; Bromund, K.; Fourre, R.; Acuna, M.; Le, G.; Farrell, W.; Holzworth, R.; McCarthy, M.;

Satellite Sees a Hyperactive Tropical Atlantic

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Although there's only one formed tropical cyclone in the Atlantic: Hurricane Cristobal, there are three other developing areas of low pressure and all were captured in this panoramic image from NOAA's GOES-East satellite today at 8 a.m. EDT. Cristobal is a hurricane located east of the U.S. East coast and is forecast to move up toward eastern Canada tonight (and stay off-shore). The image was made at NASA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Low #1. A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over South Texas and northern Mexico today. It has a ten percent chance of development into a tropical depression in the next 2 days. Low #2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. It has a near zero chance to develop in the next 2 days. Low #3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic early next week. This has a near zero chance of development in the next two days. NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Satellite Sees a Hyperactive Tropical Atlantic [annotated

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-08-28

Although there's only one formed tropical cyclone in the Atlantic: Hurricane Cristobal, there are three other developing areas of low pressure and all were captured in this panoramic image from NOAA's GOES-East satellite today at 8 a.m. EDT. Cristobal is a hurricane located east of the U.S. East coast and is forecast to move up toward eastern Canada tonight (and stay off-shore). The image was made at NASA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Low #1. A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over South Texas and northern Mexico today. It has a ten percent chance of development into a tropical depression in the next 2 days. Low #2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. It has a near zero chance to develop in the next 2 days. Low #3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic early next week. This has a near zero chance of development in the next two days. NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Momentum flux of convective gravity waves derived from an off-line gravity wave parameterization: Spatiotemporal variations at source level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Min-Jee; Chun, Hye-Yeong; Kim, Young-Ha

2017-04-01

Spatiotemporal variations in momentum flux spectra of convective gravity waves (CGWs) at the source level (cloud top), including nonlinear forcing effects, are examined using an off-line version of CGW parameterization and global reanalysis data. We used 1-hourly NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) forecast data for a period of 32 years (1979-2010), with a horizontal resolution of 1° x1°. The cloud-top momentum flux (CTMF) is not solely proportional to the convective heating rate but is affected by the wave-filtering and resonance factor (WFRF), background stability and temperature underlying the convection. Consequently, the primary peak of CTMF is in the winter hemisphere midlatitude in association with storm-track region where secondary peak of convective heating exists, whereas the secondary peak of CTMF appears in the summer hemisphere tropics and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where primary peak of convective heating exists. The magnitude of CTMF fluctuates largely with 1 year and 1 day periods, commonly in major CTMF regions. At low latitudes and Pacific storm track region, a 6-month period is also significant, and the decadal cycle appears in the Asian summer monsoon region and the Andes Mountains. The equatorial eastern Pacific region exhibits substantial inter-annual to decadal scale of variability with decreasing trend that is described as statistically significant. Interestingly, the correlation between convective heating and the CTMF is relatively lower in the equatorial region than in other regions. The CTMF spectra in the large-CTMF regions reveal that the spectrum shape and width changes with season and location, along with anisotropic shape of the CTMF spectrum, caused by changes in wind speed at the cloud top and the moving speed of convection. The CTMF in the 10°N to 10°S during the period of February to May 2010, when the PreConcordiasi campaign held, approximately follows a lognormal distribution but with a slight underestimation in the tail of the probability density function.

Initial Results from the Vector Electric Field Investigation on the C/NOFS Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfaff, R.; Rowland, D.; Acuna, M.; Le, G.; Farrell, W.; Holzworth, R.; Wilson, G.; Burke, W.; Freudenreich, H.; Bromund, K.;

Remote wave measurements using autonomous mobile robotic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkin, Andrey; Zeziulin, Denis; Makarov, Vladimir; Belyakov, Vladimir; Tyugin, Dmitry; Pelinovsky, Efim

2016-04-01

The project covers the development of a technology for monitoring and forecasting the state of the coastal zone environment using radar equipment transported by autonomous mobile robotic systems (AMRS). Sought-after areas of application are the eastern and northern coasts of Russia, where continuous collection of information on topographic changes of the coastal zone and carrying out hydrodynamic measurements in inaccessible to human environment are needed. The intensity of the reflection of waves, received by radar surveillance, is directly related to the height of the waves. Mathematical models and algorithms for processing experimental data (signal selection, spectral analysis, wavelet analysis), recalculation of landwash from data on heights of waves far from the shore, determination of the threshold values of heights of waves far from the shore have been developed. There has been developed the program complex for functioning of the experimental prototype of AMRS, comprising the following modules: data loading module, reporting module, module of georeferencing, data analysis module, monitoring module, hardware control module, graphical user interface. Further work will be connected with carrying out tests of manufactured experimental prototype in conditions of selected routes coastline of Sakhalin Island. Conducting field tests will allow to reveal the shortcomings of development and to identify ways of optimization of the structure and functioning algorithms of AMRS, as well as functioning the measuring equipment. The presented results have been obtained in Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R. Alekseev in the framework of the Federal Target Program «Research and development on priority directions of scientific-technological complex of Russia for 2014 - 2020 years» (agreement № 14.574.21.0089 (unique identifier of agreement - RFMEFI57414X0089)).

Seasonal Forecasting of Reservoir Inflow for the Segura River Basin, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Tomas, Alberto; Hunink, Johannes

2017-04-01

A major threat to the agricultural sector in Europe is an increasing occurrence of low water availability for irrigation, affecting the local and regional food security and economies. Especially in the Mediterranean region, such as in the Segura river basin (Spain), drought epidodes are relatively frequent. Part of the irrigation water demand in this basin is met by a water transfer from the Tagus basin (central Spain), but also in this basin an increasing pressure on the water resources has reduced the water available to be transferred. Currently, Drought Management Plans in these Spanish basins are in place and mitigate the impact of drought periods to some extent. Drought indicators that are derived from the available water in the storage reservoirs impose a set of drought mitigation measures. Decisions on water transfers are dependent on a regression-based time series forecast from the reservoir inflows of the preceding months. This user-forecast has its limitations and can potentially be improved using more advanced techniques. Nowadays, seasonal climate forecasts have shown to have increasing skill for certain areas and for certain applications. So far, such forecasts have not been evaluated in a seasonal hydrologic forecasting system in the Spanish context. The objective of this work is to develop a prototype of a Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting System and compare this with a reference forecast. The reference forecast in this case is the locally used regression-based forecast. Additionally, hydrological simulations derived from climatological reanalysis (ERA-Interim) are taken as a reference forecast. The Spatial Processes in Hydrology model (SPHY - http://www.sphy.nl/) forced with the ECMWF- SFS4 (15 ensembles) Seasonal Forecast Systems is used to predict reservoir inflows of the upper basins of the Segura and Tagus rivers. The system is evaluated for 4 seasons with a forecasting lead time of 3 months. First results show that only for certain initialization months and lead times, the developed system outperforms the reference forecast. This research is carried out within the European research project IMPREX (www.imprex.eu) that aims at investigating the value of improving predictions of hydro-meteorological extremes in a number of water sectors, including agriculture . The next step is to integrate improved seasonal forecasts into the system and evaluate these. This should finally lead to a more robust forecasting system that allows water managers and irrigators to better anticipate to drought episodes and putting into practice more effective water allocation and mitigation practices.

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel radar-based ensemble forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecasts for the same catchments. The first radar-based ensemble forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second ensemble forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialised with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. A clear preference was found for the ensemble approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA and REAL-C2 rather then by deterministic weather radar data. Moreover, it was observed that using an ensemble of initial conditions at the forecast initialisation, as in REAL-C2, significantly improved the forecast skill. These forecasts also perform better then forecasts forced by ensemble rainfall forecasts (NORA) initialised form a single initial condition of the hydrological model. Thus the best results were obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norton, C. C.

1985-01-01

A final progress report is presented on the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS). The primary purpose of the CSIS is to demonstrate and evaluate real time interactive computerized data collection, interpretation and display techniques as applied to severe weather forecasting. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storm forecasting and warning systems are outlined. The positive impact that CSIS has had on the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is discussed. The benefits of interactive processing systems on the forecasting ability of the NSSFC are described.

Seasonal scale water deficit forecasting in Africa and the Middle East using NASA's Land Information System (LIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Shukla, S.; Getirana, A.; McNally, A.; Koster, R. D.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Badr, H. S.; Roningen, J. M.; Kumar, S.; Funk, C. C.

2017-12-01

A seamless and effective water deficit monitoring and early warning system is critical for assessing food security in Africa and the Middle East. In this presentation, we report on the ongoing development and validation of a seasonal scale water deficit forecasting system based on NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and seasonal climate forecasts. First, our presentation will focus on the implementation and validation of drought and water availability monitoring products in the region. Next, it will focus on evaluating drought and water availability forecasts. Finally, details will be provided of our ongoing collaboration with end-user partners in the region (e.g., USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network, FEWS NET), on formulating meaningful early warning indicators, effective communication and seamless dissemination of the products through NASA's web-services. The water deficit forecasting system thus far incorporates NASA GMAO's Catchment and the Noah Multi-Physics (MP) LSMs. In addition, the LSMs' surface and subsurface runoff are routed through the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) to simulate surface water dynamics. To establish a climatology from 1981-2015, the two LSMs are driven by NASA/GMAO's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the USGS and UCSB Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) daily rainfall dataset. Comparison of the models' energy and hydrological budgets with independent observations suggests that major droughts are well-reflected in the climatology. The system uses seasonal climate forecasts from NASA's GEOS-5 (the Goddard Earth Observing System Model-5) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System-2, and it produces forecasts of soil moisture, ET and streamflow out to 6 months in the future. Forecasts of those variables are formulated in terms of indicators to provide forecasts of drought and water availability in the region. Current work suggests that for the Blue Nile basin, (1) the combination of GEOS-5 and CFSv2 is equivalent in skill to the full North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME); and (2) the seasonal water deficit forecasting system skill for both soil moisture and streamflow anomalies is greater than the standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach.

Adapting NEMO for use as the UK operational storm surge forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furner, Rachel; Williams, Jane; Horsburgh, Kevin; Saulter, Andrew

2016-04-01

The United Kingdom is an area vulnerable to damage due to storm surges, particularly the East Coast which suffered losses estimated at over £1 billion during the North Sea surge event of the 5th and 6th December 2013. Accurate forecasting of storm surge events for this region is crucial to enable government agencies to assess the risk of overtopping of coastal defences so they can respond appropriately, minimising risk to life and infrastructure. There has been an operational storm surge forecast service for this region since 1978, using a numerical model developed by the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and run at the UK Met Office. This is also implemented as part of an ensemble prediction system, using perturbed atmospheric forcing to produce an ensemble surge forecast. In order to ensure efficient use of future supercomputer developments and to create synergy with existing operational coastal ocean models the Met Office and NOC have begun a joint project transitioning the storm surge forecast system from the current CS3X code base to a configuration based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). This work involves both adapting NEMO to add functionality, such as allowing the drying out of ocean cells and changes allowing NEMO to run efficiently as a two-dimensional, barotropic model. As the ensemble surge forecast system is run with 12 members 4 times a day computational efficiency is of high importance. Upon completion this project will enable interesting scientific comparisons to be made between a NEMO based surge model and the full three-dimensional baroclinic NEMO based models currently run within the Met Office, facilitating assessment of the impact of baroclinic processes, and vertical resolution on sea surface height forecasts. Moving to a NEMO code base will also allow many future developments to be more easily used within the storm surge model due to the wide range of options which currently exist within NEMO or are planned for future NEMO releases, such as data assimilation, and surge-wave coupling. Assessment of tidal performance of the NEMO-surge configuration and comparison to the existing operational CS3X model has been carried out. Evaluation of the models focus on performance relative to the UK Class A tide gauge network, a dataset which was established following the devastating flood of 1953 and which is managed by the British Oceanographic Data Service (BODC) based at NOC. Trials of the NEMO model in tide-only mode have illustrated the importance of having a well specified bathymetry and, for the 7km scaled model, a secondary sensitivity to bed friction coefficient and the specification of the coastline. Preliminary results will also be presented from model runs with atmospheric (wind stress and pressure at mean sea-level) forcing.

IFIS Model-Plus: A Web-Based GUI for Visualization, Comparison and Evaluation of Distributed Flood Forecasts and Hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krajewski, W. F.; Della Libera Zanchetta, A.; Mantilla, R.; Demir, I.

2017-12-01

This work explores the use of hydroinformatics tools to provide an user friendly and accessible interface for executing and assessing the output of realtime flood forecasts using distributed hydrological models. The main result is the implementation of a web system that uses an Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS)-based environment for graphical displays of rainfall-runoff simulation results for both real-time and past storm events. It communicates with ASYNCH ODE solver to perform large-scale distributed hydrological modeling based on segmentation of the terrain into hillslope-link hydrologic units. The cyber-platform also allows hindcast of model performance by testing multiple model configurations and assumptions of vertical flows in the soils. The scope of the currently implemented system is the entire set of contributing watersheds for the territory of the state of Iowa. The interface provides resources for visualization of animated maps for different water-related modeled states of the environment, including flood-waves propagation with classification of flood magnitude, runoff generation, surface soil moisture and total water column in the soil. Additional tools for comparing different model configurations and performing model evaluation by comparing to observed variables at monitored sites are also available. The user friendly interface has been published to the web under the URL http://ifis.iowafloodcenter.org/ifis/sc/modelplus/.

Generic magnetohydrodynamic model at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honkonen, I. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Glocer, A.

2016-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is a multi-agency partnership to enable, support and perform research and development for next-generation space science and space weather models. CCMC currently hosts nearly 100 numerical models and a cornerstone of this activity is the Runs on Request (RoR) system which allows anyone to request a model run and analyse/visualize the results via a web browser. CCMC is also active in the education community by organizing student research contests, heliophysics summer schools, and space weather forecaster training for students, government and industry representatives. Recently a generic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model was added to the CCMC RoR system which allows the study of a variety of fluid and plasma phenomena in one, two and three dimensions using a dynamic point-and-click web interface. For example students can experiment with the physics of fundamental wave modes of hydrodynamic and MHD theory, behavior of discontinuities and shocks as well as instabilities such as Kelvin-Helmholtz.Students can also use the model to experiments with numerical effects of models, i.e. how the process of discretizing a system of equations and solving them on a computer changes the solution. This can provide valuable background understanding e.g. for space weather forecasters on the effects of model resolution, numerical resistivity, etc. on the prediction.

Potential for malaria seasonal forecasting in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe; Namanya, Didas; Friday, Agabe

2014-05-01

As monthly and seasonal dynamical prediction systems have improved their skill in the tropics over recent years, there is now the potential to use these forecasts to drive dynamical malaria modelling systems to provide early warnings in epidemic and meso-endemic regions. We outline a new pilot operational system that has been developed at ECMWF and ICTP. It uses a precipitation bias correction methodology to seamlessly join the monthly ensemble prediction system (EPS) and seasonal (system 4) forecast systems of ECMWF together. The resulting temperature and rainfall forecasts for Africa are then used to drive the recently developed ICTP malaria model known as VECTRI. The resulting coupled system of ECMWF climate forecasts and VECTRI thus produces predictions of malaria prevalence rates and transmission intensity across Africa. The forecasts are filtered to highlight the regions and months in which the system has particular value due to high year to year variability. In addition to epidemic areas, these also include meso and hyper-endemic regions which undergo considerable variability in the onset months. We demonstrate the limits of the forecast skill as a function of lead-time, showing that for many areas the dynamical system can add one to two months additional warning time to a system based on environmental monitoring. We then evaluate the past forecasts against district level case data in Uganda and show that when interventions can be discounted, the system can show significant skill at predicting interannual variability in transmission intensity up to 3 or 4 months ahead at the district scale. The prospects for a operational implementation will be briefly discussed.

Numerical Procedure to Forecast the Tsunami Parameters from a Database of Pre-Simulated Seismic Unit Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, César; Carbonel, Carlos; Rojas, Joel

2018-04-01

We have implemented a numerical procedure to forecast the parameters of a tsunami, such as the arrival time of the front of the first wave and the maximum wave height in real and virtual tidal stations along the Peruvian coast, with this purpose a database of pre-computed synthetic tsunami waveforms (or Green functions) was obtained from numerical simulation of seismic unit sources (dimension: 50 × 50 km2) for subduction zones from southern Chile to northern Mexico. A bathymetry resolution of 30 arc-sec (approximately 927 m) was used. The resulting tsunami waveform is obtained from the superposition of synthetic waveforms corresponding to several seismic unit sources contained within the tsunami source geometry. The numerical procedure was applied to the Chilean tsunami of April 1, 2014. The results show a very good correlation for stations with wave amplitude greater than 1 m, in the case of the Arica tide station an error (from the maximum height of the observed and simulated waveform) of 3.5% was obtained, for Callao station the error was 12% and the largest error was in Chimbote with 53.5%, however, due to the low amplitude of the Chimbote wave (<1 m), the overestimated error, in this case, is not important for evacuation purposes. The aim of the present research is tsunami early warning, where speed is required rather than accuracy, so the results should be taken as preliminary.

Forecasting European cold waves based on subsampling strategies of CMIP5 and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordero-Llana, Laura; Braconnot, Pascale; Vautard, Robert; Vrac, Mathieu; Jezequel, Aglae

2016-04-01

Forecasting future extreme events under the present changing climate represents a difficult task. Currently there are a large number of ensembles of simulations for climate projections that take in account different models and scenarios. However, there is a need for reducing the size of the ensemble to make the interpretation of these simulations more manageable for impact studies or climate risk assessment. This can be achieved by developing subsampling strategies to identify a limited number of simulations that best represent the ensemble. In this study, cold waves are chosen to test different approaches for subsampling available simulations. The definition of cold waves depends on the criteria used, but they are generally defined using a minimum temperature threshold, the duration of the cold spell as well as their geographical extend. These climate indicators are not universal, highlighting the difficulty of directly comparing different studies. As part of the of the CLIPC European project, we use daily surface temperature data obtained from CMIP5 outputs as well as Euro-CORDEX simulations to predict future cold waves events in Europe. From these simulations a clustering method is applied to minimise the number of ensembles required. Furthermore, we analyse the different uncertainties that arise from the different model characteristics and definitions of climate indicators. Finally, we will test if the same subsampling strategy can be used for different climate indicators. This will facilitate the use of the subsampling results for a wide number of impact assessment studies.

Numerical Procedure to Forecast the Tsunami Parameters from a Database of Pre-Simulated Seismic Unit Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, César; Carbonel, Carlos; Rojas, Joel

2017-09-01

We have implemented a numerical procedure to forecast the parameters of a tsunami, such as the arrival time of the front of the first wave and the maximum wave height in real and virtual tidal stations along the Peruvian coast, with this purpose a database of pre-computed synthetic tsunami waveforms (or Green functions) was obtained from numerical simulation of seismic unit sources (dimension: 50 × 50 km2) for subduction zones from southern Chile to northern Mexico. A bathymetry resolution of 30 arc-sec (approximately 927 m) was used. The resulting tsunami waveform is obtained from the superposition of synthetic waveforms corresponding to several seismic unit sources contained within the tsunami source geometry. The numerical procedure was applied to the Chilean tsunami of April 1, 2014. The results show a very good correlation for stations with wave amplitude greater than 1 m, in the case of the Arica tide station an error (from the maximum height of the observed and simulated waveform) of 3.5% was obtained, for Callao station the error was 12% and the largest error was in Chimbote with 53.5%, however, due to the low amplitude of the Chimbote wave (<1 m), the overestimated error, in this case, is not important for evacuation purposes. The aim of the present research is tsunami early warning, where speed is required rather than accuracy, so the results should be taken as preliminary.

The value of information as applied to the Landsat Follow-on benefit-cost analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, D. B.

1978-01-01

An econometric model was run to compare the current forecasting system with a hypothetical (Landsat Follow-on) space-based system. The baseline current system was a hybrid of USDA SRS domestic forecasts and the best known foreign data. The space-based system improved upon the present Landsat by the higher spatial resolution capability of the thematic mapper. This satellite system is a major improvement for foreign forecasts but no better than SRS for domestic forecasts. The benefit analysis was concentrated on the use of Landsat Follow-on to forecast world wheat production. Results showed that it was possible to quantify the value of satellite information and that there are significant benefits in more timely and accurate crop condition information.

Numerical simulations and observations of surface wave fields under an extreme tropical cyclone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fan, Y.; Ginis, I.; Hara, T.; Wright, C.W.; Walsh, E.J.

2009-01-01

The performance of the wave model WAVEWATCH III under a very strong, category 5, tropical cyclone wind forcing is investigated with different drag coefficient parameterizations and ocean current inputs. The model results are compared with field observations of the surface wave spectra from an airborne scanning radar altimeter, National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) time series, and satellite altimeter measurements in Hurricane Ivan (2004). The results suggest that the model with the original drag coefficient parameterization tends to overestimate the significant wave height and the dominant wavelength and produces a wave spectrum with narrower directional spreading. When an improved drag parameterization is introduced and the wave-current interaction is included, the model yields an improved forecast of significant wave height, but underestimates the dominant wavelength. When the hurricane moves over a preexisting mesoscale ocean feature, such as the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico or a warm-and cold-core ring, the current associated with the feature can accelerate or decelerate the wave propagation and significantly modulate the wave spectrum. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset hindcasts indicate that climate models increase drought detectability over ESP by 31%-81%. However, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with weak ENSO signals and lower potential predictability. Due to the high false alarms from climate models, the reliability is more important than sharpness for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. Validations and skill assessments for agricultural and hydrologic drought forecasts are carried out using soil moisture and streamflow output from the VIC land surface model (LSM) forced by a global forcing data set. Given our previous drought forecasting experiences over USA and Africa, validating the hydrologic drought forecasting is a significant challenge for a global drought early warning system.

Engineering the IOOS: A Conceptual Design and Conceptual Operations Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lampel, M.; Hood, C.; Kleinert, J.; Morgan, R. A.; Morris, P.

2007-12-01

The Integrated Ocean Observing System is the United States component in a world wide effort to provide global coverage of the world's oceans using the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The US contribution includes systems supporting three major IOOS components: the Observation Subsystem, the Modeling and Analysis Subsystem, and the Data Management and Communications (DMAC) Subsystem. The assets to be used in these subsystems include hundreds of existing satellite sensors, buoy arrays, water level monitoring networks, wave monitoring networks, specialized systems for commerce, such as the Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS®), and health and safety monitoring systems such as NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System for the Gulf of Mexico. Conceptual design addresses the interconnectivity of these systems, while Conceptual Operations provides understanding of the motivators for interconnectivity and a methodology for how useful products are created and distributed. This paper will report on the conceptual design and the concept of operations devleoped by the authors under contract to NOAA.

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www.surgesymposium.org, organized by the WMO-IOC Joint technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, JCOMM) and following activities, that have been supported by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO through JCOMM. The paper also reviews the capabilities of storm surge models, and current status in using Earth Observation (EO) information for advancing storm surge application tools, and further, for improving operational forecasts and warning capability for coastal inundation. In this context, the plans and expected results of the ESA Storm Surge Project (2010-2011) will be introduced.

Effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge in the Taiwan Strait: Insights from Typhoon Morakot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiaolong; Pan, Weiran; Zheng, Xiangjing; Zhou, Shenjie; Tao, Xiaoqin

2017-08-01

The effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge are investigated by a two-dimensional wave-current coupling model through simulations of Typhoon Morakot in the Taiwan Strait. The results show that wind wave and slope of sea floor govern wave setup modulations within the nearshore surf zone. Wave setup during Morakot can contribute up to 24% of the total storm surge with a maximum value of 0.28 m. The large wave setup commonly coincides with enhanced radiation stress gradient, which is itself associated with transfer of wave momentum flux. Water levels are to leading order in modulating significant wave height inside the estuary. High water levels due to tidal change and storm surge stabilize the wind wave and decay wave breaking. Outside of the estuary, waves are mainly affected by the current-induced modification of wind energy input to the wave generation. By comparing the observed significant wave height and water level with the results from uncoupled and coupled simulations, the latter shows a better agreement with the observations. It suggests that wave-current interaction plays an important role in determining the extreme storm surge and wave height in the study area and should not be neglected in a typhoon forecast.

The UKC2 regional coupled prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, Juan; Lewis, Huw; Graham, Jennifer; Saulter, Andrew; Arnold, Alex; Fallmann, Joachim; Martinez de la Torre, Alberto; Blyth, Eleanor; Bricheno, Lucy

2017-04-01

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather through the environment, requires a more integrated approach to forecasting. This approach also delivers research benefits through providing tools with which to explore the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land. This hypothesis is being tested in a UK regional context at km-scale through the UK Environmental Prediction Project. This presentation will provide an introduction to the UKC2 UK Environmental Prediction research system. This incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled (via OASIS3-MCT libraries) at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK and the wider north-west European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a unique new research tool for UK environmental science. The presentation will highlight work undertaken to review and improve the computational cost of running these systems for efficient research application. Research will be presented highlighting case study evaluation on the sensitivity of the ocean and surface waves to the representation of feedbacks to the atmosphere, and on the sensitivity of weather systems and boundary layer cloud development to the exchange of heat and momentum at the ocean surface modified through sea surface temperature and wave-induced roughness. The presentation will discuss plans for future development through UKC3 and beyond.

Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

2017-12-01

Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y; Shaman, Jeffrey

2015-07-01

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions.

Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Lau, Eric H. Y.; Shaman, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions. PMID:26226185

Observations and simulations of the bottom nepheloid layer in the Lafourche Trough, Louisiana Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolliff, J.; Jarosz, E.; Penko, A.; Smith, T.

2017-12-01

The "Lafourche Trough" is a mud/silt -dominated, elongate seafloor depression located between transgressive sandy shoals approximately 50 km south of Cocodrie, Louisiana. These irregular bathymetric features are relicts of the abandoned Lafourche delta complex that still have an impact upon coupled sediment-hydrodynamic processes occurring today. Repeated optical and physical oceanographic surveys conducted during the spring of 2015 and winter 2017 reveal persistent bottom nepheloid layers (BNLs) characterized by extreme optical turbidity (beam attenuation 10 m-1, 532 nm). The manifestation and persistence of cohesive sediment BNLs in this area appears to result from a complex interplay between tidal currents, bathymetry, and frontal dynamics along the edge of the Mississippi River plume. Numerical experiments were performed using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), an integrated air-sea-wave operational forecasting tool, that includes a simplified numerical sediment resuspension and transport scheme in order to simulate the nepheloid layer observations through the trough. The model results suggest that the wave-current bottom boundary layer is a critical factor in BNL development, and thusly, without wave model integration into COAMPS the system struggles to replicate the observations. Future modeling work will need to explore the potential suppression of physical mixing due to density perturbations along the BNL to fluid mud continuum within the bottom boundary layer.