Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.

Matrix effects in applying mono- and polyclonal ELISA systems to the analysis of weathered oils in contaminated soil.

PubMed

Pollard, S J T; Farmer, J G; Knight, D M; Young, P J

2002-01-01

Commercial mono- and polyclonal enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) systems were applied to the on-site analysis of weathered hydrocarbon-contaminated soils at a former integrated steelworks. Comparisons were made between concentrations of solvent extractable matter (SEM) determined gravimetrically by Soxhlet (dichloromethane) extraction and those estimated immunologically by ELISA determination over a concentration range of 2000-330,000 mg SEM/kg soil dry weight. Both ELISA systems tinder-reported for the more weathered soil samples. Results suggest this is due to matrix effects in the sample rather than any inherent bias in the ELISA systems and it is concluded that, for weathered hydrocarbons typical of steelworks and coke production sites, the use of ELISA requires careful consideration as a field technique. Consideration of the target analyte relative to the composition of the hydrocarbon waste encountered appears critical.

Thresholds for soil cover and weathering in mountainous landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Jean; Benjaram, Sarah

2017-04-01

The patterns of soil formation, weathering, and erosion shape terrestrial landscapes, forming the foundation on which ecosystems and human civilizations are built. Several fundamental questions remain regarding how soils evolve, especially in mountainous landscapes where tectonics and climate exert complex forcings on erosion and weathering. In these systems, quantifying weathering is made difficult by the fact that soil cover is discontinuous and heterogeneous. Therefore, studies that attempt to measure soil weathering in such systems face a difficult bias in measurements towards more weathered portions of the landscape. Here, we explore current understanding of erosion-weathering feedbacks, and present new data from mountain systems in Western Montana. Using field mapping, analysis of LiDAR and remotely sensed land-cover data, and soil chemical analyses, we measure soil cover and surface weathering intensity across multiple spatial scales, from the individual soil profile to a landscape perspective. Our data suggest that local emergence of bedrock cover at the surface marks a landscape transition from supply to kinetic weathering regimes in these systems, and highlights the importance of characterizing complex critical zone architecture in mountain landscapes. This work provides new insight into how landscape morphology and erosion may drive important thresholds for soil cover and weathering.

Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves labor productivity (e.g., farming) and work stoppage due to weather conditions (e.g., transportation, agriculture industry).

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar

2004-01-01

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Analysis of Automated Aircraft Conflict Resolution and Weather Avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Love, John F.; Chan, William N.; Lee, Chu Han

2009-01-01

This paper describes an analysis of using trajectory-based automation to resolve both aircraft and weather constraints for near-term air traffic management decision making. The auto resolution algorithm developed and tested at NASA-Ames to resolve aircraft to aircraft conflicts has been modified to mitigate convective weather constraints. Modifications include adding information about the size of a gap between weather constraints to the routing solution. Routes that traverse gaps that are smaller than a specific size are not used. An evaluation of the performance of the modified autoresolver to resolve both conflicts with aircraft and weather was performed. Integration with the Center-TRACON Traffic Management System was completed to evaluate the effect of weather routing on schedule delays.

Description of the GMAO OSSE for Weather Analysis Software Package: Version 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Errico, Ronald M.; Prive, Nikki C.; Carvalho, David; Sienkiewicz, Meta; El Akkraoui, Amal; Guo, Jing; Todling, Ricardo; McCarty, Will; Putman, William M.;

Evaluating the accuracy of VEMAP daily weather data for application in crop simulations on a regional scale

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Weather plays a critical role in eco-environmental and agricultural systems. Limited availability of meteorological records often constrains the applications of simulation models and related decision support tools. The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) provides daily weather...

NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention/weather Information Communications (WINCOMM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feinberg, Arthur; Tauss, James; Chomos, Gerald (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Weather is a contributing factor in approximately 25-30 percent of general aviation accidents. The lack of timely, accurate and usable weather information to the general aviation pilot in the cockpit to enhance pilot situational awareness and improve pilot judgment remains a major impediment to improving aviation safety. NASA Glenn Research Center commissioned this 120 day weather datalink market survey to assess the technologies, infrastructure, products, and services of commercial avionics systems being marketed to the general aviation community to address these longstanding safety concerns. A market survey of companies providing or proposing to provide graphical weather information to the general aviation cockpit was conducted. Fifteen commercial companies were surveyed. These systems are characterized and evaluated in this report by availability, end-user pricing/cost, system constraints/limits and technical specifications. An analysis of market survey results and an evaluation of product offerings were made. In addition, recommendations to NASA for additional research and technology development investment have been made as a result of this survey to accelerate deployment of cockpit weather information systems for enhancing aviation safety.

Weather Observation Systems and Efficiency of Fighting Forest Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, N.; Moltchanova, E.; Obersteiner, M.

2007-12-01

Weather observation is an essential component of modern forest fire management systems. Satellite and in-situ based weather observation systems might help to reduce forest loss, human casualties and destruction of economic capital. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology to assess the benefits of various weather observation systems on reductions of burned area due to early fire detection. In particular, we consider a model where the air patrolling schedule is determined by a fire hazard index. The index is computed from gridded daily weather data for the area covering parts Spain and Portugal. We conduct a number of simulation experiments. First, the resolution of the original data set is artificially reduced. The reduction of the total forest burned area associated with air patrolling based on a finer weather grid indicates the benefit of using higher spatially resolved weather observations. Second, we consider a stochastic model to simulate forest fires and explore the sensitivity of the model with respect to the quality of input data. The analysis of combination of satellite and ground monitoring reveals potential cost saving due to a "system of systems effect" and substantial reduction in burned area. Finally, we estimate the marginal improvement schedule for loss of life and economic capital as a function of the improved fire observing system.

Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

Treesearch

LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

2010-01-01

This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with...

Statistical Analysis of Atmospheric Forecast Model Accuracy - A Focus on Multiple Atmospheric Variables and Location-Based Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

WRF ) model is a numerical weather prediction system designed for operational forecasting and atmospheric research. This report examined WRF model... WRF , weather research and forecasting, atmospheric effects 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT SAR 18. NUMBER OF...and Forecasting ( WRF ) model. The authors would also like to thank Ms. Sherry Larson, STS Systems Integration, LLC, ARL Technical Publishing Branch

3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and 3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Face-to-Face Meeting Report December 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

The climate and weather data science community gathered December 3–5, 2013, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in Livermore, California, for the third annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Meeting, which was hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UV-CDAT are global collaborations designed to develop a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to observed andmore » simulated data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure developed under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change, while the F2F meetings help to build a stronger climate and weather data science community and stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2013 F2F meeting determined requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects; enhancements needed for data distribution, analysis, and visualization infrastructure; and standards and resources needed for better collaborations.« less

Causes of General Aviation Weather-Related, Non-Fatal Incidents: Analysis Using NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

first, fol- lowed by detailed analysis, finishing with a recap of the same conclusions. In technical terms, this cognitively primes11 the reader and...lowering ceiling, clouds, fog, rain, rising cloud tops, merging cloud layers) b) icing c) thunderstorms d) turbulence 11 In cognitive priming... stylistic differences in the way pilots tend to handle weather. In fact, each group seems to have problems with the exact worst category of weather with

Implications of Automotive and Trucking On-Board Information Systems for General Aviation Cockpit Weather Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

2002-01-01

In this study, current characteristics and future developments of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in the automobile and trucking industry are investigated to identify the possible implications of such systems for General Aviation (GA) cockpit weather systems. First, ITS are explained based on tracing their historical development in various countries. Then, current systems and the enabling communication technologies are discussed. Finally, a market analysis for GA is included.

A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

2011-01-01

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

Latest Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) services and innovative tools supporting the space weather research and operational communities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Shim, J. S.; MacNeice, P. J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Weigand, C.; Zheng, Y.; Mullinix, R.; Patel, K.; Pembroke, A. D.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Boblitt, J. M.; Bakshi, S. S.; Tsui, T.

2017-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), with the fundamental goal of aiding the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research, has been serving as an integral hub for over 15 years, providing invaluable resources to both space weather scientific and operational communities. CCMC has developed and provided innovative web-based point of access tools varying from: Runs-On-Request System - providing unprecedented global access to the largest collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models, Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) - a powerful dissemination system for space weather information, Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and Mobile apps to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. In addition to supporting research and performing model evaluations, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities. In this poster, we will showcase CCMC's latest innovative tools and services, and CCMC's tools that revolutionized the way we do research and improve our operational space weather capabilities. CCMC's free tools and resources are all publicly available online (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothmer, Volker

2013-04-01

Through the AFFECTS project funded by the European Union's 7th Framework Programme, European and US scientists develop an advanced proto-type space weather warning system to safeguard the operation of telecommunication and navigation systems on Earth to the threat of solar storms. The project is led by the University of Göttingen's Institute for Astrophysics and comprises worldwide leading research and academic institutions and industrial enterprises from Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway and the United States. The key objectives of the AFFECTS project are: State-of-the-art analysis and modelling of the Sun-Earth chain of effects on the Earth's ionosphere and their subsequent impacts on communication systems based on multipoint space observations and complementary ground-based data. Development of a prototype space weather early warning system and reliable space weather forecasts, with specific emphasis on ionospheric applications. Dissemination of new space weather products and services to end users, the scientific community and general public. The presentation summarizes the project highlights, with special emphasis on the developed space weather forecast tools.

Monitoring Space Weather Hazards caused by geomagnetic disturbances with Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Gannon, J. L.; Peek, T. A.; Lin, D.

2017-12-01

One space weather hazard is the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in the electric power transmission systems, which is naturally induced geoelectric field during the geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs). GICs are a potentially catastrophic threat to bulk power systems. For instance, the Blackout in Quebec in March 1989 was caused by GMDs during a significant magnetic storm. To monitor the GMDs, the autonomous Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) system is developed recently. The system includes magnetic field measurement from magnetometers and geomagnetic field measurement from electrodes. In this presentation, we introduce the six sites of SHMs which have been deployed in the US continental regions. The data from the magnetometers are processed with the Multiple Observatory Geomagnetic Data Analysis Software (MOGDAS). And the statistical results are presented here. It reveals not only the impacts of space weather over US continental region but also the potential of improving instrumentation development to provide better space weather monitor.

Cognitive Task Analysis of Business Jet Pilots' Weather Flying Behaviors: Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara; Pliske, Rebecca; Hutton, Robert; Chrenka, Jason

2001-01-01

This report presents preliminary findings from a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of business aviation piloting. Results describe challenging weather-related aviation decisions and the information and cues used to support these decisions. Further, these results demonstrate the role of expertise in business aviation decision-making in weather flying, and how weather information is acquired and assessed for reliability. The challenging weather scenarios and novice errors identified in the results provide the basis for experimental scenarios and dependent measures to be used in future flight simulation evaluations of candidate aviation weather information systems. Finally, we analyzed these preliminary results to recommend design and training interventions to improve business aviation decision-making with weather information. The primary objective of this report is to present these preliminary findings and to document the extended CTA methodology used to elicit and represent expert business aviator decision-making with weather information. These preliminary findings will be augmented with results from additional subjects using this methodology. A summary of the complete results, absent the detailed treatment of methodology provided in this report, will be documented in a separate publication.

CAL--ERDA program manual. [Building Design Language; LOADS, SYSTEMS, PLANT, ECONOMICS, REPORT, EXECUTIVE, CAL-ERDA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunn, B. D.; Diamond, S. C.; Bennett, G. A.

1977-10-01

A set of computer programs, called Cal-ERDA, is described that is capable of rapid and detailed analysis of energy consumption in buildings. A new user-oriented input language, named the Building Design Language (BDL), has been written to allow simplified manipulation of the many variables used to describe a building and its operation. This manual provides the user with information necessary to understand in detail the Cal-ERDA set of computer programs. The new computer programs described include: an EXECUTIVE Processor to create computer system control commands; a BDL Processor to analyze input instructions, execute computer system control commands, perform assignments andmore » data retrieval, and control the operation of the LOADS, SYSTEMS, PLANT, ECONOMICS, and REPORT programs; a LOADS analysis program that calculates peak (design) zone and hourly loads and the effect of the ambient weather conditions, the internal occupancy, lighting, and equipment within the building, as well as variations in the size, location, orientation, construction, walls, roofs, floors, fenestrations, attachments (awnings, balconies), and shape of a building; a Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) SYSTEMS analysis program capable of modeling the operation of HVAC components including fans, coils, economizers, humidifiers, etc.; 16 standard configurations and operated according to various temperature and humidity control schedules. A plant equipment program models the operation of boilers, chillers, electrical generation equipment (diesel or turbines), heat storage apparatus (chilled or heated water), and solar heating and/or cooling systems. An ECONOMIC analysis program calculates life-cycle costs. A REPORT program produces tables of user-selected variables and arranges them according to user-specified formats. A set of WEATHER ANALYSIS programs manipulates, summarizes and plots weather data. Libraries of weather data, schedule data, and building data were prepared.« less

[Identifying dry-weather flow and pollution load sources of separate storm sewer systems with different degrees of illicit discharge].

PubMed

Meng, Ying-ying; Feng, Cang; Li, Tian; Wang, Ling

2009-12-01

Dry-weather flow quantity and quality of three representative separate storm sewer systems in Shanghai-H, G, N were studied. Based on survey of operating status of the pumping stations as well as characteristics of the drainage systems, it was obtained that the interception sewage volumes per unit area in the three systems were 3610 m3/(km2 x d), 1550 m3/(km2 x d), 2970 m3/(km2 x d) respectively; the sanitary wastewater included accounted for 25%, 85% and 71% respectively; the interception volume of H was mainly composed of infiltrated underground water, so the dry-weather flow pollution was slighter, and the interception volumes of G, N were both mainly composed of sanitary wastewater, so the dry-weather which were flow pollution was relatively serious. The water characteristics of potential illicit discharge sources of dry-weather which were flow-grey water, black water and underground water were preliminarily explored, so that treating three parameters-LAS/ NH4+ -N, NH4+ -N/K, Mg/K as tracer parameters of grey water, black water and underground water was put forward. Moreover, the water characteristics of grey water and sanitary wastewater including black water were summarized: the feature of grey water was LAS/NH4+ -N > 0.2, NH4+ -N/K <1, and sanitary wastewater was LAS/NH4+ -N < 0.2, NH4+ -N/K >1. Based on the above, the applications of flow chart method and CMBM method in dry-weather flow detection of monitored storm systems were preliminarily discussed, and the results were basically same as that obtained in flow quantity and quality comprehensive analysis. The research results and methods can provide guidance for analysis and diagnosis of dry-weather flow sources and subsequent reconstruction projects in similar separate storm sewer systems at home.

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Nelson, Caroline; Shapiro, Gerald

1998-01-01

The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.

Space Weather and the State of Cardiovascular System of a Healthy Human Being

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsonov, S. N.; Manykina, V. I.; Krymsky, G. F.; Petrova, P. G.; Palshina, A. M.; Vishnevsky, V. V.

The term "space weather" characterizes a state of the near-Earth environmental space. An organism of human being represents an open system so the change of conditions in the environment including the near-Earth environmental space influences the health state of a human being.In recent years many works devoted to the effect of space weather on the life on the Earth, and the degree of such effect has been represented from a zero-order up to apocalypse. To reveal a real effect of space weather on the health of human being the international Russian- Ukrainian experiment "Geliomed" is carried out since 2005 (http://geliomed.immsp.kiev.ua) [Vishnevsky et al., 2009]. The analysis of observational set of data has allowed to show a synchronism and globality of such effect (simultaneous manifestation of space weather parameters in a state of cardiovascular system of volunteer groups removed from each other at a distance over 6000 km). The response of volunteer' cardiovascular system to the changes of space weather parameters were observed even at insignificant values of the Earth's geomagnetic field. But even at very considerable disturbances of space weather parameters a human being healthy did not feel painful symptoms though measurements of objective physiological indices showed their changes.

An analysis of yield stability in a conservation agriculture system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate models predict increasing growing-season weather variability, with negative consequences for crop production. Maintaining agricultural productivity despite variability in weather (i.e., crop yield stability) will be critical to meeting growing global demand. Conservation agriculture is an ...

Microscopic analysis of traffic flow in inclement weather.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-01

Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, hurricanes...

Road weather forecast quality analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-03-01

It is just as important to keep the highways functioning in a safe and efficient manner as it is to construct them in : the first place. Our economy is built around an efficient transportation system. Winter weather plays an important role : in highw...

Severe storms and local weather research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Developments in the use of space related techniques to understand storms and local weather are summarized. The observation of lightning, storm development, cloud development, mesoscale phenomena, and ageostrophic circulation are discussed. Data acquisition, analysis, and the development of improved sensor and computer systems capability are described. Signal processing and analysis and application of Doppler lidar data are discussed. Progress in numerous experiments is summarized.

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaw, Michael; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Cetola, Jeffrey

2011-01-01

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours

Real-time assessment of fog-related crashes using airport weather data: a feasibility analysis.

PubMed

Ahmed, Mohamed M; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung; Yu, Rongjie

2014-11-01

The effect of reduction of visibility on crash occurrence has recently been a major concern. Although visibility detection systems can help to mitigate the increased hazard of limited-visibility, such systems are not widely implemented and many locations with no systems are experiencing considerable number of fatal crashes due to reduction in visibility caused by fog and inclement weather. On the other hand, airports' weather stations continuously monitor all climate parameters in real-time, and the gathered data may be utilized to mitigate the increased risk for the adjacent roadways. This study aims to examine the viability of using airport weather information in real-time road crash risk assessment in locations with recurrent fog problems. Bayesian logistic regression was utilized to link six years (2005-2010) of historical crash data to real-time weather information collected from eight airports in the State of Florida, roadway characteristics and aggregate traffic parameters. The results from this research indicate that real-time weather data collected from adjacent airports are good predictors to assess increased risk on highways. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supporting Weather Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Since its founding in 1992, Global Science & Technology, Inc. (GST), of Greenbelt, Maryland, has been developing technologies and providing services in support of NASA scientific research. GST specialties include scientific analysis, science data and information systems, data visualization, communications, networking and Web technologies, computer science, and software system engineering. As a longtime contractor to Goddard Space Flight Center s Earth Science Directorate, GST scientific, engineering, and information technology staff have extensive qualifications with the synthesis of satellite, in situ, and Earth science data for weather- and climate-related projects. GST s experience in this arena is end-to-end, from building satellite ground receiving systems and science data systems, to product generation and research and analysis.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

Assimilating Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Observations and the Relative Value of Other Observation Types

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

Using real-time weather data from an unmanned aircraft system to support the advanced research version of the weather research and forecast model... system that is used to transmit some MDCRS observations, the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS). A new network of aircraft ...Technical Analysis and Applications Center, and AirDat LLC developed a modified TAMDAR sensor referred to as TAMDAR- Unmanned Aerial System (TAMDAR-U) for

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System ANALYSIS FORECAST MODEL GSI Gridpoint Statistical Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court College Park, MD 20740 Page Author

Data mining and gap analysis for weather responsive traffic management studies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

Weather causes a variety of impacts on the transportation system. An Oak Ridge National Laboratory study estimated the : delay experienced by American drivers due to snow, ice, and fog in 1999 at 46 million hours. While severe winter storms, : hurric...

2014 Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Conference Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2015-01-27

The climate and weather data science community met December 9–11, 2014, in Livermore, California, for the fourth annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Conference, hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UVCDATremain global collaborations committed to developing a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to simulated and observed data from the climate and weather communities.more » The tools and infrastructure created under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change. In addition, the F2F conference fosters a stronger climate and weather data science community and facilitates a stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2014 F2F conference detailed the progress of ESGF, UV-CDAT, and other community efforts over the year and sets new priorities and requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six. Specifically discussed at the conference were project capabilities and enhancements needs for data distribution, analysis, visualization, hardware and network infrastructure, standards, and resources.« less

Detecting climate variations and change: New challenges for observing and data management systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karl, T.R.; Quayle, R.G.; Groisman, P.Ya.

1993-08-01

Several essential aspects of weather observing and the management of weather data related to improving knowledge of climate variations and change in the surface boundary layer and the consequences for socioeconomic and biogeophysical systems, are discussed. The issues include long-term homogeneous time series of routine weather observations; time- and space-scale resolution of datasets derived from the observations; information about observing systems, data collection systems, and data reduction algorithms; and the enhancement of weather observing systems to serve as climate observing systems. Although much has been learned from existing weather networks and methods of data management, the system is far frommore » perfect. Several vital areas have not received adequate attention. Particular improvements are needed in the interaction between network designers and climatologists; operational analyses that focus on detecting and documenting outliers and time-dependent biases within datasets; developing the means to cope with and minimize potential inhomogeneities in weather observing systems; and authoritative documentation of how various aspects of climate have or have not changed. In this last area, close attention must be given to time and space resolution of the data. In many instances the time and space resolution requirements for understanding why the climate changes are not synonymous with understanding how it has changed or varied. This is particularly true within the surface boundary layer. A standard global daily/monthly climate message should also be introduced to supplement current Global Telecommunication System's CLIMAT data. Overall, a call is made for improvements in routine weather observing, data management, and analysis systems. Routine observations have provided (and will continue to provide) most of the information regarding how the climate has changed during the last 100 years affecting where we live, work, and grow our food. 58 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.« less

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Simulation of a Real-Time Local Data Integration System over East-Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan

1999-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) simulated a real-time configuration of a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) using data from 15-28 February 1999. The objectives were to assess the utility of a simulated real-time LDIS, evaluate and extrapolate system performance to identify the hardware necessary to run a real-time LDIS, and determine the sensitivities of LDIS. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate analysis products that enhance short-range (less than 6 h) weather forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and Melbourne National Weather Service operational requirements. The simulation used the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) software on an IBM RS/6000 workstation with a 67-MHz processor. This configuration ran in real-time, but not sufficiently fast for operational requirements. Thus, the AMU recommends a workstation with a 200-MHz processor and 512 megabytes of memory to run the AMU's configuration of LDIS in real-time. This report presents results from two case studies and several data sensitivity experiments. ADAS demonstrates utility through its ability to depict high-resolution cloud and wind features in a variety of weather situations. The sensitivity experiments illustrate the influence of disparate data on the resulting ADAS analyses.

Models and applications for space weather forecasting and analysis at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, Maria

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) was established at the dawn of the new millennium as a long-term flexible solution to the problem of transition of progress in space environment modeling to operational space weather forecasting. CCMC hosts an expanding collection of state-of-the-art space weather models developed by the international space science community. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment and developing and maintaining custom displays and powerful web-based systems and tools ready to be used by researchers, space weather service providers and decision makers. In support of space weather needs of NASA users CCMC is developing highly-tailored applications and services that target specific orbits or locations in space and partnering with NASA mission specialists on linking CCMC space environment modeling with impacts on biological and technological systems in space. Confidence assessment of model predictions is an essential element of space environment modeling. CCMC facilitates interaction between model owners and users in defining physical parameters and metrics formats relevant to specific applications and leads community efforts to quantify models ability to simulate and predict space environment events. Interactive on-line model validation systems developed at CCMC make validation a seamless part of model development circle. The talk will showcase innovative solutions for space weather research, validation, anomaly analysis and forecasting and review on-going community-wide model validation initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

[The ways in which variations in space and atmospheric factors act upon the biosphere and humans].

PubMed

Chernogor, L F

2010-01-01

The system analysis is validated to be an efficient means for studying the channels through which variations in space and tropospheric weather affect the biosphere (humans). The basics of the system analysis paradigm are presented. The causes of variations in space and tropospheric weather are determined, and the interrelations between them are demonstrated. The ways in which these variations affect the biosphere (humans) are discussed. Aperiodic and quasi-periodic disturbances in the physical fields that influence the biosphere (humans) are intercompared.

Global Navigation Satellite Systems and Space Weather: Building upon the International Space Weather Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadimova, S. H.; Haubold, H. J.

2014-01-01

Globally there is growing interest in better unders tanding solar-terrestrial interactions, particularly patterns and trends in space weather. This is not only for scientific reasons, but also because the reliable operation of ground-based and space-based assets and infrastructures is increasingly dependent on their robustness against the detrimental effects of space weather. Consequently, in 2009, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) proposed the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), as a follow-up activity to the International Heliophysical Year 2007 (IHY2007), to be implemented under a three-year workplan from 2010 to 2012 (UNGA Document, A/64/20). All achievements of international cooperation and coordination for ISWI, including instrumentation, data analysis, modelling, education, training and public outreach, are made a vailable through the ISWI Newsletter and the ISWI Website (http://www.iswi-secretariat.org/). Since the last solar maximum in 2000, societal dependence on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) has increased substantially. This situation has brought increasing attention to the subject of space weather and its effects on GNSS systems and users. Results concerning the impact of space weather on GNSS are made available at the Information Portal (www.unoosa.org) of the International Committee on Global Navigati on Satellite Systems (ICG). This paper briefly reviews the curre nt status of ISWI with regard to GNSS.

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

Nanoscale Analysis of Space-Weathering Features in Soils from Itokawa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, M. S.; Christoffersen, R.; Zega, T. J.; Keller, L. P.

2014-01-01

Space weathering alters the spectral properties of airless body surface materials by redden-ing and darkening their spectra and attenuating characteristic absorption bands, making it challenging to characterize them remotely [1,2]. It also causes a discrepency between laboratory analysis of meteorites and remotely sensed spectra from asteroids, making it difficult to associate meteorites with their parent bodies. The mechanisms driving space weathering include mi-crometeorite impacts and the interaction of surface materials with solar energetic ions, particularly the solar wind. These processes continuously alter the microchemical and structural characteristics of exposed grains on airless bodies. The change of these properties is caused predominantly by the vapor deposition of reduced Fe and FeS nanoparticles (npFe(sup 0) and npFeS respectively) onto the rims of surface grains [3]. Sample-based analysis of space weathering has tra-ditionally been limited to lunar soils and select asteroidal and lunar regolith breccias [3-5]. With the return of samples from the Hayabusa mission to asteroid Itoka-wa [6], for the first time we are able to compare space-weathering features on returned surface soils from a known asteroidal body. Analysis of these samples will contribute to a more comprehensive model for how space weathering varies across the inner solar system. Here we report detailed microchemical and microstructal analysis of surface grains from Itokawa.

Sensor performance and weather effects modeling for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everson, Jeffrey H.; Kopala, Edward W.; Lazofson, Laurence E.; Choe, Howard C.; Pomerleau, Dean A.

1995-01-01

Optical sensors are used for several ITS applications, including lateral control of vehicles, traffic sign recognition, car following, autonomous vehicle navigation, and obstacle detection. This paper treats the performance assessment of a sensor/image processor used as part of an on-board countermeasure system to prevent single vehicle roadway departure crashes. Sufficient image contrast between objects of interest and backgrounds is an essential factor influencing overall system performance. Contrast is determined by material properties affecting reflected/radiated intensities, as well as weather and visibility conditions. This paper discusses the modeling of these parameters and characterizes the contrast performance effects due to reduced visibility. The analysis process first involves generation of inherent road/off- road contrasts, followed by weather effects as a contrast modification. The sensor is modeled as a charge coupled device (CCD), with variable parameters. The results of the sensor/weather modeling are used to predict the performance on an in-vehicle warning system under various levels of adverse weather. Software employed in this effort was previously developed for the U.S. Air Force Wright Laboratory to determine target/background detection and recognition ranges for different sensor systems operating under various mission scenarios.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Products People GLOBAL CLIMATE & WEATHER MODELING Global Forecast System (GFS) products - Please see

Surface Landing Site Weather Analysis for NASA's Constellation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altino, Karen M.; Burns, K. L.

2008-01-01

Weather information is an important asset for NASA's Constellation Program in developing the next generation space transportation system to fly to the International Space Station, the Moon and, eventually, to Mars. Weather conditions can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from pre-launch ground processing of the Ares vehicles to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Meteorological analysis is art important contributor, not only to the development and verification of system design requirements but also to mission planning and active ground operations. Of particular interest are the surface weather conditions at both nominal and abort landing sites for the manned Orion capsule. Weather parameters such as wind, rain, and fog all play critical roles in the safe landing of the vehicle and subsequent crew and vehicle recovery. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch has been tasked by the Constellation Program with defining the natural environments at potential landing zones. This paper wiI1 describe the methodology used for data collection and quality control, detail the types of analyses performed, and provide a sample of the results that cab be obtained.

Separate and combined sewer systems: a long-term modelling approach.

PubMed

Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

2009-01-01

Sewer systems convey mostly dry weather flow, coming from domestic and industrial sanitary sewage as well as infiltration flow, and stormwater due to meteoric precipitations. Traditionally, in urban drainage two types of sewer systems are adopted: separate and combined sewers. The former convey dry and wet weather flow separately into two different networks, while the latter convey dry and wet weather flow together. Which is the best solution in terms of cost-benefit analysis still remains a controversial subject. The present study was aimed at comparing the pollution loads discharged to receiving bodies by Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) and Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) for different kinds of sewer systems (combined and separate). To accomplish this objective, a comparison between the two systems was carried out using results from simulations of catchments characterised by different dimensions, population densities and water supply rate. The analysis was based on a parsimonious mathematical model able to simulate the sewer system as well as the WWTP during both dry and wet weather. The rain series employed for the simulations was six years long. Several pollutants, both dissolved and particulate, were modelled. The results confirmed the uncertainties in the choice of one system versus the other, emphasising the concept that case-by-case solutions have to be undertaken. Further, the compared systems showed different responses in terms of effectiveness in reducing the discharged mass to the RWB in relation to the particular pollutant taken into account.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel

1990-01-01

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

A climatology of weather-driven mixing events in a dimictic Arctic lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Melanie; MacIntyre, Sally; Kushner, Paul

2014-05-01

For dimictic and polymictic Arctic lakes, mixing during the ice-free season is primarily controlled by the passage of cold fronts and their associated strong winds. At Toolik Lake, a Long Term Ecological Research site in Alaska, year-to-year variability in lake stability and mixing frequency has been considerable over the past 14 summers. Mixing is important for lake productivity, distributing dissolved gases and nutrients through the water column. Summertime Arctic warming might be expected to stabilize Arctic lakes such as Toolik, but the control of individual weather events on a season's mixing characteristics complicates the ability to predict trends in stability and mixing. With this motivation, this work aims to characterize weather systems that are conducive to mixing at Toolik. High resolution lake and meteorological data from the site were used to characterize mixing while atmospheric reanalysis data were used to describe the weather systems. Mixing events were first identified using an automated algorithm based on Lake Number and lake thermal structure. The algorithm identified mixing events that are separated by at least the timescale of weather systems, so that any given weather event should cause at most one mixing event. Because low Lake Number conditions typically highlight strong wind events, temperature profile data over time were used to identify thermocline deepening as a complementary indicator for mixing. Mixing events were found to be most often characterized by simultaneous occurrence of a low Lake Number condition and thermocline deepening. Once mixing events were identified, they were classified according to their corresponding atmospheric structures. Two primary weather system types with distinct characteristics were determined to be associated with mixing. The analysis suggests that changing the occurrence of these weather system types might change the summertime thermal structure of Toolik Lake, and by extension other lakes in the region.

General Aviation Pilots' Perceived Usage and Valuation of Aviation Weather Information Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara; Lane, Suzanne; Garland, Daniel

2002-01-01

Aviation suffers many accidents due to the lack of good weather information in flight. Existing aviation weather information is difficult to obtain when it is most needed and is not well formatted for in-flight use. Because it is generally presented aurally, aviation weather information is difficult to integrate with spatial flight information and retain for reference. Efforts, by NASA's Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) team and others, to improve weather information accessibility, usability and decision aiding will enhance General Aviation (GA) pilots' weather situation awareness and decision-making and therefore should improve the safety of GA flight. Consideration of pilots' economic concerns will ensure that in-flight weather information systems are financially accessible to GA pilots as well. The purpose of this survey was to describe how aviation operator communities gather and use weather information as well as how weather related decisions are made between flight crews and supporting personnel. Pilots of small GA aircraft experience the most weather-related accidents as well as the most fatal weather related accident. For this reason, the survey design and advertisement focused on encouraging participation from GA pilots. Perhaps as a result of this emphasis, most responses, 97 responses or 85% of the entire response set, were from GA pilots, This paper presents only analysis of these GA pilots' responses. The insights provided by this survey regarding GA pilots' perceived value and usage of current aviation weather information. services, and products provide a basis for technological approaches to improve GA safety. Results of this survey are discussed in the context of survey limitations and prior work, and serve as the foundation for a model of weather information value, guidance for the design of in-flight weather information systems, and definition of further research toward their development.

Demonstration of NICT Space Weather Cloud --Integration of Supercomputer into Analysis and Visualization Environment--

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watari, S.; Morikawa, Y.; Yamamoto, K.; Inoue, S.; Tsubouchi, K.; Fukazawa, K.; Kimura, E.; Tatebe, O.; Kato, H.; Shimojo, S.; Murata, K. T.

2010-12-01

In the Solar-Terrestrial Physics (STP) field, spatio-temporal resolution of computer simulations is getting higher and higher because of tremendous advancement of supercomputers. A more advanced technology is Grid Computing that integrates distributed computational resources to provide scalable computing resources. In the simulation research, it is effective that a researcher oneself designs his physical model, performs calculations with a supercomputer, and analyzes and visualizes for consideration by a familiar method. A supercomputer is far from an analysis and visualization environment. In general, a researcher analyzes and visualizes in the workstation (WS) managed at hand because the installation and the operation of software in the WS are easy. Therefore, it is necessary to copy the data from the supercomputer to WS manually. Time necessary for the data transfer through long delay network disturbs high-accuracy simulations actually. In terms of usefulness, integrating a supercomputer and an analysis and visualization environment seamlessly with a researcher's familiar method is important. NICT has been developing a cloud computing environment (NICT Space Weather Cloud). In the NICT Space Weather Cloud, disk servers are located near its supercomputer and WSs for data analysis and visualization. They are connected to JGN2plus that is high-speed network for research and development. Distributed virtual high-capacity storage is also constructed by Grid Datafarm (Gfarm v2). Huge-size data output from the supercomputer is transferred to the virtual storage through JGN2plus. A researcher can concentrate on the research by a familiar method without regard to distance between a supercomputer and an analysis and visualization environment. Now, total 16 disk servers are setup in NICT headquarters (at Koganei, Tokyo), JGN2plus NOC (at Otemachi, Tokyo), Okinawa Subtropical Environment Remote-Sensing Center, and Cybermedia Center, Osaka University. They are connected on JGN2plus, and they constitute 1PB (physical size) virtual storage by Gfarm v2. These disk servers are connected with supercomputers of NICT and Osaka University. A system that data output from the supercomputers are automatically transferred to the virtual storage had been built up. Transfer rate is about 50 GB/hrs by actual measurement. It is estimated that the performance is reasonable for a certain simulation and analysis for reconstruction of coronal magnetic field. This research is assumed an experiment of the system, and the verification of practicality is advanced at the same time. Herein we introduce an overview of the space weather cloud system so far we have developed. We also demonstrate several scientific results using the space weather cloud system. We also introduce several web applications of the cloud as a service of the space weather cloud, which is named as "e-SpaceWeather" (e-SW). The e-SW provides with a variety of space weather online services from many aspects.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Paving the Way for Progress in Space Science Research to Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Mullinix, R.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Rastaetter, L.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Zheng, Y.; Wiegand, C.

2013-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was established at the dawn of the millennium as an essential element on the National Space Weather Program. One of the CCMC goals was to pave the way for progress in space science research to operational space weather forecasting. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment, in developing and maintaining powerful web-based tools and systems ready to be used by space weather service providers and decision makers as well as in space weather prediction capabilities assessments. The presentation will showcase latest innovative solutions for space weather research, analysis, forecasting and validation and review on-going community-wide initiatives enabled by CCMC applications.

Scaling in nature: From DNA through heartbeats to weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havlin, S.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Bunde, A.; Goldberger, A. L.; Ivanov, P. Ch.; Peng, C.-K.; Stanley, H. E.

1999-12-01

The purpose of this talk is to describe some recent progress in applying scaling concepts to various systems in nature. We review several systems characterized by scaling laws such as DNA sequences, heartbeat rates and weather variations. We discuss the finding that the exponent α quantifying the scaling in DNA in smaller for coding than for noncoding sequences. We also discuss the application of fractal scaling analysis to the dynamics of heartbeat regulation, and report the recent finding that the scaling exponent α is smaller during sleep periods compared to wake periods. We also discuss the recent findings that suggest a universal scaling exponent characterizing the weather fluctuations.

Scaling in nature: from DNA through heartbeats to weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Havlin, S.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Bunde, A.; Goldberger, A. L.; Peng, C. K.; Stanley, H. E.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this report is to describe some recent progress in applying scaling concepts to various systems in nature. We review several systems characterized by scaling laws such as DNA sequences, heartbeat rates and weather variations. We discuss the finding that the exponent alpha quantifying the scaling in DNA in smaller for coding than for noncoding sequences. We also discuss the application of fractal scaling analysis to the dynamics of heartbeat regulation, and report the recent finding that the scaling exponent alpha is smaller during sleep periods compared to wake periods. We also discuss the recent findings that suggest a universal scaling exponent characterizing the weather fluctuations.

Performance evaluation of a reverse-gradient artificial recharge system in basalt aquifers of Maharashtra, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhusari, Vijay; Katpatal, Y. B.; Kundal, Pradeep

2017-05-01

Drinking water scarcity in rural parts of central India in basaltic terrain is common. Most of the rural population depends on groundwater sources located in the fractured and weathered zone of the basaltic aquifers. Long-term indiscriminate withdrawal has caused an alarming rate of depletion of groundwater levels in both pre- and post-monsoon periods. The aquifer is not replenished through precipitation under natural conditions. To overcome this situation, an innovative artificial recharge system, called the reverse-gradient recharge system (RGRS), was implemented in seven villages of Wardha district of Maharashtra. The study described here presents a comparative analysis of recharge systems constructed in the year 2012 downstream of dug-well locations in these seven villages. The post-project comparative analysis reveals that the area of influence (AOI) of the groundwater recharge system, within which increases in groundwater levels and yield are observed, is directly related to the specific yield, thickness of the weathered and fractured zone, porosity, and transmissivity of the aquifer, showing high correlation coefficients of 0.92, 0.88, 0.85 and 0.83, respectively. The study indicates that the RGRS is most effective in vesicular weathered and fractured basalt, recording a maximum increase in well yield of 65-82 m3/day, while a minimum increase in yield of 15-30 m3/day was observed in weathered vesicular basalt. The comparative analysis thus identifies the controlling factors which facilitate groundwater recharge through the proposed RGRS. After implementation of these projects, the groundwater availability in these villages increased significantly, solving their drinking water problems.

Impact of a variational objective analysis scheme on a regional area numerical model: The Italian Air Force Weather Service experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonavita, M.; Torrisi, L.

2005-03-01

A new data assimilation system has been designed and implemented at the National Center for Aeronautic Meteorology and Climatology of the Italian Air Force (CNMCA) in order to improve its operational numerical weather prediction capabilities and provide more accurate guidance to operational forecasters. The system, which is undergoing testing before operational use, is based on an “observation space” version of the 3D-VAR method for the objective analysis component, and on the High Resolution Regional Model (HRM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) for the prognostic component. Notable features of the system include a completely parallel (MPI+OMP) implementation of the solution of analysis equations by a preconditioned conjugate gradient descent method; correlation functions in spherical geometry with thermal wind constraint between mass and wind field; derivation of the objective analysis parameters from a statistical analysis of the innovation increments.

Development of a Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.;

Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Haines, Stephanie L.; Suggs, Ron J.; Bradshaw, Tom; Darden, Chris; Burks, Jason

2003-01-01

Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2010-01-01

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

A graphical weather system design for the NASA transport systems research vehicle B-737

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

A graphical weather system was designed for testing in the NASA Transport Systems Research Vehicle B-737 airplane and simulator. The purpose of these tests was to measure the impact of graphical weather products on aircrew decision processes, weather situation awareness, reroute clearances, workload, and weather monitoring. The flight crew graphical weather interface is described along with integration of the weather system with the flight navigation system, and data link transmission methods for sending weather data to the airplane.

Typhoon impacts on chemical weathering source provenance of a High Standing Island watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Kevin J.; Carey, Anne E.; You, Chen-Feng

2017-10-01

Chemical weathering source provenance changes associated with Typhoon Mindulle (2004) were identified for the Choshui River Watershed in west-central Taiwan using radiogenic Sr isotope (87Sr/86Sr) and major ion chemistry analysis of water samples collected before, during, and following the storm event. Storm water sampling over 72 h was conducted in 3 h intervals, allowing for novel insight into weathering regime changes in response to intense rainfall events. Chemical weathering sources were determined to be bulk silicate and disseminated carbonate minerals at the surface and silicate contributions from deep thermal waters. Loss on ignition analysis of collected rock samples indicate disseminated carbonate can compose over 25% by weight of surface mineralogy, but typically makes up ∼2-3% of watershed rock. 87Sr/86Sr and major element molar ratios indicate that Typhoon Mindulle caused a weathering regime switch from normal flow incorporating a deep thermal signature to that of a system dominated by surface weathering. The data suggest release of silicate solute rich soil pore waters during storm events, creating a greater relative contribution of silicate weathering to the solute load during periods of increased precipitation and runoff. Partial depletion of this soil solute reservoir and possible erosion enhanced carbonate weathering lead to increased importance of carbonates to the weathering regime as the storm continues. Major ion data indicate that complex mica weathering (muscovite, biotite, illite, chlorite) may represent an important silicate weathering pathway in the watershed. Deep thermal waters represent an important contribution to river solutes during normal non-storm flow conditions. Sulfuric acid sourced from pyrite weathering is likely a major weathering agent in the Choshui River watershed.

Approaches to Improve the Performances of the Sea Launch System Performances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatarevs'kyy, K.

2002-01-01

The paper dwells on the outlines of the techniques of on-line pre-launch analysis on possibility of safe and reliable LV launch off floating launch system, when actual launch conditions (weather, launcher motion parameters) are beyond design limitations. The technique guarantees to follow the take-off LV trajectory limitations (the shock-free launch) and allows the improvement of the operat- ing characteristics of the floating launch systems at the expense of possibility to authorize the launch even if a number of weather and launcher motion parameters restrictions are exceeded. This paper ideas are applied for LV of Zenit-type launches off tilting launch platform, operative within Sea Launch. The importance, novelty and urgency of the approach under consideration is explained by the fact that the application during floating launch systems operation allows the bringing down of the num- ber of weather-conditioned launch abort cases. And this, in its part, increases the trustworthiness of the mission fulfillment on specific spacecraft injection, since, in the long run, the launch abort may cause the crossing of allowable wait threshold and accordingly the mission abort. All previous launch kinds for these LV did not require the development of the special technique of pre-launch analysis on launch possibility, since weather limitations for stationary launcher condi- tions are basically reduced to the wind velocity limitations. This parameter is reliably monitored and is sure to influence the launch dynamics. So the measured wind velocity allows the thorough picture on the possibility of the launch off the ground-based launcher. Since the floating launch systems commit complex and continuous movements under the exposure of the wind and the waves, the number of parameters is increased and, combined differently, they do not always make the issue on shockless launch critical. The proposed technique of the pre-launch analysis of the forthcoming launch dynamics with the consideration of the launch conditions (weather, launcher motion parameters, actual LV and carried SC performance) allow the evaluation of the actual combination of launch environment influence on the possibility of shockless launch. On the basis of the analysis the launch permissibility deci- sion is taken, even if some separate parameters are beyond the design range.

Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wedan, R. W.

1983-01-01

The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Studying Weather and Climate Using Atmospheric Retrospective Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-12-01

Over the last 35 years, tremendous amounts of satellite observations of the Earth's atmosphere have been collected along side the much longer and diverse record of in situ measurements. The satellite data records have disparate qualities, structure and uncertainty which make comparing weather from the 80s and 2000s a challenging prospect. Likewise, in-situ data records lack complete coverage of the earth in both space and time. Atmospheric reanalyses use the observations with numerical models and data assimilation to produce continuous and consistent weather data records for periods longer than decades. The result is a simplified data format with a relatively straightforward learning curve that includes many more variables available (through the modeling component of the system), but driven by a full suite of observational data. The simplified data format allows introduction into weather and climate data analysis. Some examples are provided from undergraduate meteorology program internship projects. We will present the students progression through the projects from their initial understanding and competencies to some final results and the skills learned along the way. Reanalyses are a leading research tool in weather and climate, but can also provide an introductory experience as well, allowing students to develop an understanding of the physical system while learning basic programming and analysis skills.

Seasat-A ASVT: Commercial demonstration experiments. Results analysis methodology for the Seasat-A case studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The SEASAT-A commercial demonstration program ASVT is described. The program consists of a set of experiments involving the evaluation of a real time data distributions system, the SEASAT-A user data distribution system, that provides the capability for near real time dissemination of ocean conditions and weather data products from the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Weather Central to a selected set of commercial and industrial users and case studies, performed by commercial and industrial users, using the data gathered by SEASAT-A during its operational life. The impact of the SEASAT-A data on business operations is evaluated by the commercial and industrial users. The approach followed in the performance of the case studies, and the methodology used in the analysis and integration of the case study results to estimate the actual and potential economic benefits of improved ocean condition and weather forecast data are described.

Resilient Grid Operational Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasqualini, Donatella

Extreme weather-related disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a leading cause of grid outages historically. Although physical asset hardening is perhaps the most common way to mitigate the impacts of severe weather, operational strategies may be deployed to limit the extent of societal and economic losses associated with weather-related physical damage.1 The purpose of this study is to examine bulk power-system operational strategies that can be deployed to mitigate the impact of severe weather disruptions caused by hurricanes, thereby increasing grid resilience to maintain continuity of critical infrastructure during extreme weather. To estimate the impacts of resilient grid operational strategies, Losmore » Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) developed a framework for hurricane probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). The probabilistic nature of this framework allows us to estimate the probability distribution of likely impacts, as opposed to the worst-case impacts. The project scope does not include strategies that are not operations related, such as transmission system hardening (e.g., undergrounding, transmission tower reinforcement and substation flood protection) and solutions in the distribution network.« less

Utilization of GIS/GPS-Based Information Technology in Commercial Crop Decision Making in California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Arizona

PubMed Central

Thomas, C. S.; Skinner, P. W.; Fox, A. D.; Greer, C. A.; Gubler, W. D.

2002-01-01

Ground-based weather, plant-stage measurements, and remote imagery were geo-referenced in geographic information system (GIS) software using an integrated approach to determine insect and disease risk and crop cultural requirements. Weather forecasts and disease weather forecasts for agricultural areas were constructed with elevation, weather, and satellite data. Models for 6 insect pests and 12 diseases of various crops were calculated and presented daily in georeferenced maps for agricultural areas in northern California and Washington. Grape harvest dates and yields also were predicted with high accuracy. The data generated from the GIS global positioning system (GPS) analyses were used to make management decisions over a large number of acres in California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Arizona. Information was distributed daily over the Internet as regional weather, insect, and disease risk maps as industry-sponsored or subscription-based products. Use of GIS/GPS technology for semi-automated data analysis is discussed. PMID:19265934

Systems and methods for supplemental weather information presentation on a display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bunch, Brian (Inventor)

2010-01-01

An embodiment of the supplemental weather display system presents supplemental weather information on a display in a craft. An exemplary embodiment receives the supplemental weather information from a remote source, determines a location of the supplemental weather information relative to the craft, receives weather information from an on-board radar system, and integrates the supplemental weather information with the weather information received from the on-board radar system.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events—space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections.

PubMed

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events-space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Studies of satellite support to weather modification in the western US region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, W. R.; Grant, L. O.; Vonderhaar, T. H.

1978-01-01

The applications of meteorological satellite data to both summer and winter weather modification programs are addressed. Appraisals of the capability of satellites to assess seedability, to provide real-time operational support, and to assist in the post-experiment analysis of a seeding experiment led to the incorporation of satellite observing systems as a major component in the Bureau of Reclamations weather modification activities. Satellite observations are an integral part of the South Park Area cumulus experiment (SPACE) which aims to formulate a quantitative hypothesis for enhancing precipitation from orographically induced summertime mesoscale convective systems (orogenic mesoscale systems). Progress is reported in using satellite observations to assist in classifying the important mesoscale systems, and in defining their frequency and coverage, and potential area of effect. Satellite studies of severe storms are also covered.

A comparative study of European insurance schemes for extreme weather risks and incentives for risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Hudson, Paul; de Ruig, Lars; Kuik, Onno; Botzen, Wouter

2017-04-01

This paper provides an analysis of the insurance schemes that cover extreme weather events in twelve different EU countries and the risk reduction incentives offered by these schemes. Economic impacts of extreme weather events in many regions in Europe and elsewhere are on the rise due to climate change and increasing exposure as driven by urban development. In an attempt to manage impacts from extreme weather events, natural disaster insurance schemes can provide incentives for taking measures that limit weather-related risks. Insurance companies can influence public risk management policies and risk-reducing behaviour of policyholders by "rewarding behaviour that reduces risks and potential damages" (Botzen and Van den Bergh, 2008, p. 417). Examples of insurance market systems that directly or indirectly aim to incentivize risk reduction with varying degrees of success are: the U.S. National Flood Insurance Programme; the French Catastrophes Naturelles system; and the U.K. Flood Re program which requires certain levels of protection standards for properties to be insurable. In our analysis, we distinguish between four different disaster types (i.e. coastal and fluvial floods, droughts and storms) and three different sectors (i.e. residential, commercial and agriculture). The selected case studies also provide a wide coverage of different insurance market structures, including public, private and public-private insurance provision, and different methods of coping with extreme loss events, such as re-insurance, governmental aid and catastrophe bonds. The analysis of existing mechanisms for risk reduction incentives provides recommendations about incentivizing adaptive behaviour, in order to assist policy makers and other stakeholders in designing more effective insurance schemes for extreme weather risks.

Surface Landing Site Weather Analysis for Constellation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altino, Karen M.; Burns, K. Lee

2008-01-01

Weather information is an important asset for NASA's Constellation Program in developing the next generation space transportation system to fly to the International Space Station, the Moon and, eventually, to Mars. Weather conditions can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from pre-launch ground processing to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Meteorological analysis is an important contributor, not only to the development and verification of system design requirements but also to mission planning and active ground operations. Of particular interest are the surface atmospheric conditions at both nominal and abort landing sites for the manned Orion capsule. Weather parameters such as wind, rain, and fog all play critical roles in the safe landing of the vehicle and subsequent crew and vehicle recovery. The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has been tasked by the Constellation Program with defining the natural environments at potential landing zones. Climatological time series of operational surface weather observations are used to calculate probabilities of occurrence of various sets of hypothetical vehicle constraint thresholds, Data are available for numerous geographical locations such that statistical analysis can be performed for single sites as well as multiple-site network configurations. Results provide statistical descriptions of how often certain weather conditions are observed at the site(s) and the percentage that specified criteria thresholds are matched or exceeded. Outputs are tabulated by month and hour of day to show both seasonal and diurnal variation. This paper will describe the methodology used for data collection and quality control, detail the types of analyses performed, and provide a sample of the results that can be obtained,

Spectral decomposition of asteroid Itokawa based on principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koga, Sumire C.; Sugita, Seiji; Kamata, Shunichi; Ishiguro, Masateru; Hiroi, Takahiro; Tatsumi, Eri; Sasaki, Sho

2018-01-01

The heliocentric stratification of asteroid spectral types may hold important information on the early evolution of the Solar System. Asteroid spectral taxonomy is based largely on principal component analysis. However, how the surface properties of asteroids, such as the composition and age, are projected in the principal-component (PC) space is not understood well. We decompose multi-band disk-resolved visible spectra of the Itokawa surface with principal component analysis (PCA) in comparison with main-belt asteroids. The obtained distribution of Itokawa spectra projected in the PC space of main-belt asteroids follows a linear trend linking the Q-type and S-type regions and is consistent with the results of space-weathering experiments on ordinary chondrites and olivine, suggesting that this trend may be a space-weathering-induced spectral evolution track for S-type asteroids. Comparison with space-weathering experiments also yield a short average surface age (< a few million years) for Itokawa, consistent with the cosmic-ray-exposure time of returned samples from Itokawa. The Itokawa PC score distribution exhibits asymmetry along the evolution track, strongly suggesting that space weathering has begun saturated on this young asteroid. The freshest spectrum found on Itokawa exhibits a clear sign for space weathering, indicating again that space weathering occurs very rapidly on this body. We also conducted PCA on Itokawa spectra alone and compared the results with space-weathering experiments. The obtained results indicate that the first principal component of Itokawa surface spectra is consistent with spectral change due to space weathering and that the spatial variation in the degree of space weathering is very large (a factor of three in surface age), which would strongly suggest the presence of strong regional/local resurfacing process(es) on this small asteroid.

Empirical Data Fusion for Convective Weather Hazard Nowcasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J.; Ahijevych, D.; Steiner, M.; Dettling, S.

2009-09-01

This paper describes a statistical analysis approach to developing an automated convective weather hazard nowcast system suitable for use by aviation users in strategic route planning and air traffic management. The analysis makes use of numerical weather prediction model fields and radar, satellite, and lightning observations and derived features along with observed thunderstorm evolution data, which are aligned using radar-derived motion vectors. Using a dataset collected during the summers of 2007 and 2008 over the eastern U.S., the predictive contributions of the various potential predictor fields are analyzed for various spatial scales, lead-times and scenarios using a technique called random forests (RFs). A minimal, skillful set of predictors is selected for each scenario requiring distinct forecast logic, and RFs are used to construct an empirical probabilistic model for each. The resulting data fusion system, which ran in real-time at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the summer of 2009, produces probabilistic and deterministic nowcasts of the convective weather hazard and assessments of the prediction uncertainty. The nowcasts' performance and results for several case studies are presented to demonstrate the value of this approach. This research has been funded by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to support the development of the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) system, which is intended to provide convective hazard nowcasts and forecasts for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen).

Single pilot IFR operating problems determined from accidental data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forsyth, D. L.; Shaughnessy, J. D.

1978-01-01

The accident reports examined were restricted to instrument rated pilots flying in IFR weather. A brief examination was made of accidents which occurred during all phases of flight and which were due to all causes. A detailed examination was made of those accidents which involved a single pilot which occurred during the landing phases of flight, and were due to pilot error. Problem areas found include: (1) landing phase operations especially final approach, (2) pilot weather briefings, (3) night approaches in low IFR weather, (4) below minimum approaches, (5) aircraft icing, (6) imprecise navigation, (7) descending below minimum IFR altitudes, (8) fuel mismanagement, (9) pilot overconfidence, and (10) high pilot workload especially in twins. Some suggested areas of research included: (1) low cost deicing systems, (2) standardized navigation displays, (3) low cost low-altitude warning systems, (4) improved fuel management systems, (5) improved ATC communications, (6) more effective pilot training and experience acquisition methods, and (7) better weather data dissemination techniques.

NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

2016-12-01

Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

On the assimilation of satellite derived soil moisture in numerical weather prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drusch, M.

2006-12-01

Satellite derived surface soil moisture data sets are readily available and have been used successfully in hydrological applications. In many operational numerical weather prediction systems the initial soil moisture conditions are analysed from the modelled background and 2 m temperature and relative humidity. This approach has proven its efficiency to improve surface latent and sensible heat fluxes and consequently the forecast on large geographical domains. However, since soil moisture is not always related to screen level variables, model errors and uncertainties in the forcing data can accumulate in root zone soil moisture. Remotely sensed surface soil moisture is directly linked to the model's uppermost soil layer and therefore is a stronger constraint for the soil moisture analysis. Three data assimilation experiments with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been performed for the two months period of June and July 2002: A control run based on the operational soil moisture analysis, an open loop run with freely evolving soil moisture, and an experimental run incorporating bias corrected TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) derived soil moisture over the southern United States through a nudging scheme using 6-hourly departures. Apart from the soil moisture analysis, the system setup reflects the operational forecast configuration including the atmospheric 4D-Var analysis. Soil moisture analysed in the nudging experiment is the most accurate estimate when compared against in-situ observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet. The corresponding forecast for 2 m temperature and relative humidity is almost as accurate as in the control experiment. Furthermore, it is shown that the soil moisture analysis influences local weather parameters including the planetary boundary layer height and cloud coverage. The transferability of the results to other satellite derived soil moisture data sets will be discussed.

Feasibility of using a seismic surface wave method to study seasonal and weather effects on shallow surface soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of the paper is to study the temporal variations of the subsurface soil properties due to seasonal and weather effects using a combination of a new seismic surface method and an existing acoustic probe system. A laser Doppler vibrometer (LDV) based multi-channel analysis of surface wav...

Weather Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

WxLink is an aviation weather system based on advanced airborne sensors, precise positioning available from the satellite-based Global Positioning System, cockpit graphics and a low-cost datalink. It is a two-way system that uplinks weather information to the aircraft and downlinks automatic pilot reports of weather conditions aloft. Manufactured by ARNAV Systems, Inc., the original technology came from Langley Research Center's cockpit weather information system, CWIN (Cockpit Weather INformation). The system creates radar maps of storms, lightning and reports of surface observations, offering improved safety, better weather monitoring and substantial fuel savings.

Development of Algorithms and Error Analyses for the Short Baseline Lightning Detection and Ranging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, Stanley O.

1998-01-01

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high-precision lightning location system to provide lightning-related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning- sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations (45th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Force) where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 megahertz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. This document provides the basis for the design approach and data analysis for a system of radio frequency receivers to provide azimuth and elevation data for lightning pulses detected simultaneously by the LDAR system. The intent is for this direction-finding system to correct and augment the data provided by LDAR and, thereby, increase the rate of valid data and to correct or discard any invalid data. This document develops the necessary equations and algorithms, identifies sources of systematic errors and means to correct them, and analyzes the algorithms for random error. This data analysis approach is not found in the existing literature and was developed to facilitate the operation of this Short Baseline LDAR (SBLDAR). These algorithms may also be useful for other direction-finding systems using radio pulses or ultrasonic pulse data.

North Europe power transmission system vulnerability during extreme space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccinelli, Roberta; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Space weather driven by solar activity can induce geomagnetic disturbances at the Earth's surface that can affect power transmission systems. Variations in the geomagnetic field result in geomagnetically induced currents that can enter the system through its grounding connections, saturate transformers and lead to system instability and possibly collapse. This study analyzes the impact of extreme space weather on the northern part of the European power transmission grid for different transformer designs to understand its vulnerability in case of an extreme event. The behavior of the system was analyzed in its operational mode during a severe geomagnetic storm, and mitigation measures, like line compensation, were also considered. These measures change the topology of the system, thus varying the path of geomagnetically induced currents and inducing a local imbalance in the voltage stability superimposed on the grid operational flow. Our analysis shows that the North European power transmission system is fairly robust against extreme space weather events. When considering transformers more vulnerable to geomagnetic storms, only few episodes of instability were found in correspondence with an existing voltage instability due to the underlying system load. The presence of mitigation measures limited the areas of the network in which bus voltage instabilities arise with respect to the system in which mitigation measures are absent.

Introducing the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R. D.

2015-12-01

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations beginning in 1980 called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC=1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously-identified in MERRA's precipitation and reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED is being used by researchers around the world for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at large scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models. These applications will be discussed. More information on GFWED can be found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/gfwed/

Ubiquitous Geo-Sensing for Context-Aware Analysis: Exploring Relationships between Environmental and Human Dynamics

PubMed Central

Sagl, Günther; Blaschke, Thomas; Beinat, Euro; Resch, Bernd

2012-01-01

Ubiquitous geo-sensing enables context-aware analyses of physical and social phenomena, i.e., analyzing one phenomenon in the context of another. Although such context-aware analysis can potentially enable a more holistic understanding of spatio-temporal processes, it is rarely documented in the scientific literature yet. In this paper we analyzed the collective human behavior in the context of the weather. We therefore explored the complex relationships between these two spatio-temporal phenomena to provide novel insights into the dynamics of urban systems. Aggregated mobile phone data, which served as a proxy for collective human behavior, was linked with the weather data from climate stations in the case study area, the city of Udine, Northern Italy. To identify and characterize potential patterns within the weather-human relationships, we developed a hybrid approach which integrates several spatio-temporal statistical analysis methods. Thereby we show that explanatory factor analysis, when applied to a number of meteorological variables, can be used to differentiate between normal and adverse weather conditions. Further, we measured the strength of the relationship between the ‘global’ adverse weather conditions and the spatially explicit effective variations in user-generated mobile network traffic for three distinct periods using the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC). The analyses result in three spatially referenced maps of MICs which reveal interesting insights into collective human dynamics in the context of weather, but also initiate several new scientific challenges. PMID:23012571

A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology based on weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, D.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.; Neal, R.

2017-12-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterise the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. An analysis of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a set of objectively defined weather patterns is presented. This classification system, introduced last year, is currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. The classification consists of 30 daily patterns derived from North Atlantic Ocean and European mean sea level pressure data. Clustering these 30 patterns yields another set of eight patterns that are intended for use in longer-range applications. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to the commonly-used Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Drought index series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for different drought index thresholds, representing dry, wet and drought conditions. The set of 30 weather patterns is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although the smaller set of clustered patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in the context of precipitation studies. Weather patterns associated with drought over the different UK regions are identified. This has potential forecasting application - if a model (e.g. a global seasonal forecast model) can predict weather pattern occurrences then regional drought outlooks may be derived from the forecasted weather patterns.

Probabilistic Harmonic Analysis on Distributed Photovoltaic Integration Considering Typical Weather Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Che; Ruoying, Yu; Dongsheng, Dang; Xiangyan, Wang

2017-05-01

Distributed Generation (DG) integrating to the network would cause the harmonic pollution which would cause damages on electrical devices and affect the normal operation of power system. On the other hand, due to the randomness of the wind and solar irradiation, the output of DG is random, too, which leads to an uncertainty of the harmonic generated by the DG. Thus, probabilistic methods are needed to analyse the impacts of the DG integration. In this work we studied the harmonic voltage probabilistic distribution and the harmonic distortion in distributed network after the distributed photovoltaic (DPV) system integrating in different weather conditions, mainly the sunny day, cloudy day, rainy day and the snowy day. The probabilistic distribution function of the DPV output power in different typical weather conditions could be acquired via the parameter identification method of maximum likelihood estimation. The Monte-Carlo simulation method was adopted to calculate the probabilistic distribution of harmonic voltage content at different frequency orders as well as the harmonic distortion (THD) in typical weather conditions. The case study was based on the IEEE33 system and the results of harmonic voltage content probabilistic distribution as well as THD in typical weather conditions were compared.

Traffic Management Coordinator Evaluation of the Dynamic Weather Routes Concept and System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Chester

2014-01-01

Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) is a weather-avoidance system for airline dispatchers and FAA traffic managers that continually searches for and advises the user of more efficient routes around convective weather. NASA and American Airlines (AA) have been conducting an operational trial of DWR since July 17, 2012. The objective of this evaluation is to assess DWR from a traffic management coordinator (TMC) perspective, using recently retired TMCs and actual DWR reroutes advisories that were rated acceptable by AA during the operational trial. Results from the evaluation showed that the primary reasons for a TMC to modify or reject airline reroute requests were related to airspace configuration. Approximately 80 percent of the reroutes evaluated required some coordination before implementation. Analysis showed TMCs approved 62 percent of the requested DWR reroutes, resulting in 57 percent of the total requested DWR time savings.

Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip.

PubMed

Zamora, Jane Louie Fresco; Kashihara, Shigeru; Yamaguchi, Suguru

2015-01-01

Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Suguru

2015-01-01

Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values. PMID:26421312

Impact of Cloud Analysis on Numerical Weather Prediction in the Galician Region of Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto, M. J.; Balseiro, C. F.; Pérez-Muñuzuri, V.; Xue, M.; Brewster, K.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is applied to operational numerical weather prediction in Galicia, northwest Spain. The model is run daily for 72-h forecasts at a 10-km horizontal spacing. Located on the northwest coast of Spain and influenced by the Atlantic weather systems, Galicia has a high percentage (nearly 50%) of rainy days per year. For these reasons, the precipitation processes and the initialization of moisture and cloud fields are very important. Even though the ARPS model has a sophisticated data analysis system (`ADAS') that includes a 3D cloud analysis package, because of operational constraints, the current forecast starts from the 12-h forecast of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Model (AVN). Still, procedures from the ADAS cloud analysis are being used to construct the cloud fields based on AVN data and then are applied to initialize the microphysical variables in ARPS. Comparisons of the ARPS predictions with local observations show that ARPS can predict very well both the daily total precipitation and its spatial distribution. ARPS also shows skill in predicting heavy rains and high winds, as observed during November 2000, and especially in the prediction of the 5 November 2000 storm that caused widespread wind and rain damage in Galicia. It is demonstrated that the cloud analysis contributes to the success of the precipitation forecasts.

Development of a WRF-RTFDDA-based high-resolution hybrid data-assimilation and forecasting system toward to operation in the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Wu, W.; Zhang, Y.; Kucera, P. A.; Liu, Y.; Pan, L.

2012-12-01

Weather forecasting in the Middle East is challenging because of its complicated geographical nature including massive coastal area and heterogeneous land, and regional spare observational network. Strong air-land-sea interactions form multi-scale weather regimes in the area, which require a numerical weather prediction model capable of properly representing multi-scale atmospheric flow with appropriate initial conditions. The WRF-based Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) system is one of advanced multi-scale weather analysis and forecasting facilities developed at the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) of NCAR. The forecasting system is applied for the Middle East with careful configuration. To overcome the limitation of the very sparsely available conventional observations in the region, we develop a hybrid data assimilation algorithm combining RTFDDA and WRF-3DVAR, which ingests remote sensing data from satellites and radar. This hybrid data assimilation blends Newtonian nudging FDDA and 3DVAR technology to effectively assimilate both conventional observations and remote sensing measurements and provide improved initial conditions for the forecasting system. For brevity, the forecasting system is called RTF3H (RTFDDA-3DVAR Hybrid). In this presentation, we will discuss the hybrid data assimilation algorithm, and its implementation, and the applications for high-impact weather events in the area. Sensitivity studies are conducted to understand the strength and limitations of this hybrid data assimilation algorithm.

Determining minimum staffing levels during snowstorms using an integrated simulation, regression, and reliability model.

PubMed

Kunkel, Amber; McLay, Laura A

2013-03-01

Emergency medical services (EMS) provide life-saving care and hospital transport to patients with severe trauma or medical conditions. Severe weather events, such as snow events, may lead to adverse patient outcomes by increasing call volumes and service times. Adequate staffing levels during such weather events are critical for ensuring that patients receive timely care. To determine staffing levels that depend on weather, we propose a model that uses a discrete event simulation of a reliability model to identify minimum staffing levels that provide timely patient care, with regression used to provide the input parameters. The system is said to be reliable if there is a high degree of confidence that ambulances can immediately respond to a given proportion of patients (e.g., 99 %). Four weather scenarios capture varying levels of snow falling and snow on the ground. An innovative feature of our approach is that we evaluate the mitigating effects of different extrinsic response policies and intrinsic system adaptation. The models use data from Hanover County, Virginia to quantify how snow reduces EMS system reliability and necessitates increasing staffing levels. The model and its analysis can assist in EMS preparedness by providing a methodology to adjust staffing levels during weather events. A key observation is that when it is snowing, intrinsic system adaptation has similar effects on system reliability as one additional ambulance.

Change in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Accuracy with Age of Input Data from the Global Forecast System (GFS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

Laboratory Change in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Accuracy with Age of Input Data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) by JL Cogan...analysis. As expected, accuracy generally tended to decline as the large-scale data aged , but appeared to improve slightly as the age of the large...19 Table 7 Minimum and maximum mean RMDs for each WRF time (or GFS data age ) category. Minimum and

Space weather tools for satellite anomaly analysis: an example and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guild, T. B.; O'Brien, T. P., III

2017-12-01

It has been nearly a decade since the publication of "SEAES-GEO: A spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system for geosynchronous orbit" [O'Brien, Space Weather, 2009]. In that time, the SEAES-GEO algorithms have been implemented in NOAA, NASA, defense, and international space weather centers. In this paper, we provide an overview of that tool and then describe some of the geophysical models that are needed to extend SEAES to address any Earth orbit. We include discussion of the constraints that govern implementation and, in turn, guide development of such tools.

GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, David; Nyenhuis, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin; Pappenberger, Florian

2013-04-01

"Understanding the Earth system — its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land, geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards — is crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering including poverty, protecting the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development. Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding." With this in mind, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) started implementing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOWOW, short for "GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water", is supporting this objective. GEOWOW's main challenge is to improve Earth observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve GEOSS in terms of interoperability, standardization and functionality. One of the main goals behind the GEOWOW project is to demonstrate the value of the TIGGE archive in interdisciplinary applications, providing a vast amount of useful and easily accessible information to the users through the GEO Common Infrastructure (GCI). GEOWOW aims at developing funcionalities that will allow easy discovery, access and use of TIGGE archive data and of in-situ observations, e.g. from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), to support applications such as river discharge forecasting.TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE archive consists of ensemble weather forecast data from ten global NWP centres, starting from October 2006, which has been made available for scientific research. The TIGGE archive has been used to analyse hydro-meteorological forecasts of flooding in Europe as well as in China. In general the analysis has been favourable in terms of forecast skill and concluded that the use of a multi-model forecast is beneficial. Long term analysis of individual centres, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), has been conducted in the past. However, no long term and large scale study has been performed so far with inclusion of different global numerical models. Here we present some initial results from such a study.

Initializing numerical weather prediction models with satellite-derived surface soil moisture: Data assimilation experiments with ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System and the TMI soil moisture data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drusch, M.

2007-02-01

Satellite-derived surface soil moisture data sets are readily available and have been used successfully in hydrological applications. In many operational numerical weather prediction systems the initial soil moisture conditions are analyzed from the modeled background and 2 m temperature and relative humidity. This approach has proven its efficiency to improve surface latent and sensible heat fluxes and consequently the forecast on large geographical domains. However, since soil moisture is not always related to screen level variables, model errors and uncertainties in the forcing data can accumulate in root zone soil moisture. Remotely sensed surface soil moisture is directly linked to the model's uppermost soil layer and therefore is a stronger constraint for the soil moisture analysis. For this study, three data assimilation experiments with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been performed for the 2-month period of June and July 2002: a control run based on the operational soil moisture analysis, an open loop run with freely evolving soil moisture, and an experimental run incorporating TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) derived soil moisture over the southern United States. In this experimental run the satellite-derived soil moisture product is introduced through a nudging scheme using 6-hourly increments. Apart from the soil moisture analysis, the system setup reflects the operational forecast configuration including the atmospheric 4D-Var analysis. Soil moisture analyzed in the nudging experiment is the most accurate estimate when compared against in situ observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet. The corresponding forecast for 2 m temperature and relative humidity is almost as accurate as in the control experiment. Furthermore, it is shown that the soil moisture analysis influences local weather parameters including the planetary boundary layer height and cloud coverage.

The pulse-pair algorithm as a robust estimator of turbulent weather spectral parameters using airborne pulse Doppler radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxa, Ernest G., Jr.; Lee, Jonggil

1991-01-01

The pulse pair method for spectrum parameter estimation is commonly used in pulse Doppler weather radar signal processing since it is economical to implement and can be shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. With the use of airborne weather radar for windshear detection, the turbulent weather and strong ground clutter return spectrum differs from that assumed in its derivation, so the performance robustness of the pulse pair technique must be understood. Here, the effect of radar system pulse to pulse phase jitter and signal spectrum skew on the pulse pair algorithm performance is discussed. Phase jitter effect may be significant when the weather return signal to clutter ratio is very low and clutter rejection filtering is attempted. The analysis can be used to develop design specifications for airborne radar system phase stability. It is also shown that the weather return spectrum skew can cause a significant bias in the pulse pair mean windspeed estimates, and that the poly pulse pair algorithm can reduce this bias. It is suggested that use of a spectrum mode estimator may be more appropriate in characterizing the windspeed within a radar range resolution cell for detection of hazardous windspeed gradients.

ADAS Update and Maintainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service Melbourne (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LOIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LOIS was developed by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (AD AS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Over the years, the LDIS has become problematic to maintain since it depends on AMU-developed shell scripts that were written for an earlier version of the ADAS software. The goals of this task were to update the NWS MLB/SMG LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporate new sources of observational data, and upgrade and modify the AMU-developed shell scripts written to govern the system. In addition, the previously developed ADAS graphical user interface (GUI) was updated. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used by both groups.

Predictability of short-range forecasting: a multimodel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Moya, Jose-Antonio; Callado, Alfons; Escribà, Pau; Santos, Carlos; Santos-Muñoz, Daniel; Simarro, Juan

2011-05-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (including mesoscale) have limitations when it comes to dealing with severe weather events because extreme weather is highly unpredictable, even in the short range. A probabilistic forecast based on an ensemble of slightly different model runs may help to address this issue. Among other ensemble techniques, Multimodel ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are proving to be useful for adding probabilistic value to mesoscale deterministic models. A Multimodel Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) focused on forecasting the weather up to 72 h has been developed at the Spanish Meteorological Service (AEMET). The system uses five different limited area models (LAMs), namely HIRLAM (HIRLAM Consortium), HRM (DWD), the UM (UKMO), MM5 (PSU/NCAR) and COSMO (COSMO Consortium). These models run with initial and boundary conditions provided by five different global deterministic models, namely IFS (ECMWF), UM (UKMO), GME (DWD), GFS (NCEP) and CMC (MSC). AEMET-SREPS (AE) validation on the large-scale flow, using ECMWF analysis, shows a consistent and slightly underdispersive system. For surface parameters, the system shows high skill forecasting binary events. 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts are verified using an up-scaling grid of observations from European high-resolution precipitation networks, and compared with ECMWF-EPS (EC).

Development and validation of a weather-based warning system to advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot on turfgrass.

PubMed

Smith, D L; Kerns, J P; Walker, N R; Payne, A F; Horvath, B; Inguagiato, J C; Kaminski, J E; Tomaso-Peterson, M; Koch, P L

2018-01-01

Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass.

Development and validation of a weather-based warning system to advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot on turfgrass

PubMed Central

Smith, D. L.; Kerns, J. P.; Walker, N. R.; Payne, A. F.; Horvath, B.; Inguagiato, J. C.; Kaminski, J. E.; Tomaso-Peterson, M.

2018-01-01

Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass. PMID:29522560

Next generation of weather generators on web service framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinnachodteeranun, R.; Hung, N. D.; Honda, K.; Ines, A. V. M.

2016-12-01

Weather generator is a statistical model that synthesizes possible realization of long-term historical weather in future. It generates several tens to hundreds of realizations stochastically based on statistical analysis. Realization is essential information as a crop modeling's input for simulating crop growth and yield. Moreover, they can be contributed to analyzing uncertainty of weather to crop development stage and to decision support system on e.g. water management and fertilizer management. Performing crop modeling requires multidisciplinary skills which limit the usage of weather generator only in a research group who developed it as well as a barrier for newcomers. To improve the procedures of performing weather generators as well as the methodology to acquire the realization in a standard way, we implemented a framework for providing weather generators as web services, which support service interoperability. Legacy weather generator programs were wrapped in the web service framework. The service interfaces were implemented based on an international standard that was Sensor Observation Service (SOS) defined by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Clients can request realizations generated by the model through SOS Web service. Hierarchical data preparation processes required for weather generator are also implemented as web services and seamlessly wired. Analysts and applications can invoke services over a network easily. The services facilitate the development of agricultural applications and also reduce the workload of analysts on iterative data preparation and handle legacy weather generator program. This architectural design and implementation can be a prototype for constructing further services on top of interoperable sensor network system. This framework opens an opportunity for other sectors such as application developers and scientists in other fields to utilize weather generators.

Benefits Analysis of Multi-Center Dynamic Weather Routes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; McNally, David; Morando, Alexander; Clymer, Alexis; Lock, Jennifer; Petersen, Julien

2014-01-01

Dynamic weather routes are flight plan corrections that can provide airborne flights more than user-specified minutes of flying-time savings, compared to their current flight plan. These routes are computed from the aircraft's current location to a flight plan fix downstream (within a predefined limit region), while avoiding forecasted convective weather regions. The Dynamic Weather Routes automation has been continuously running with live air traffic data for a field evaluation at the American Airlines Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, TX since July 31, 2012, where flights within the Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center are evaluated for time savings. This paper extends the methodology to all Centers in United States and presents benefits analysis of Dynamic Weather Routes automation, if it was implemented in multiple airspace Centers individually and concurrently. The current computation of dynamic weather routes requires a limit rectangle so that a downstream capture fix can be selected, preventing very large route changes spanning several Centers. In this paper, first, a method of computing a limit polygon (as opposed to a rectangle used for Fort Worth Center) is described for each of the 20 Centers in the National Airspace System. The Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool, a nationwide simulation and analysis tool, is used for this purpose. After a comparison of results with the Center-based Dynamic Weather Routes automation in Fort Worth Center, results are presented for 11 Centers in the contiguous United States. These Centers are generally most impacted by convective weather. A breakdown of individual Center and airline savings is presented and the results indicate an overall average savings of about 10 minutes of flying time are obtained per flight.

New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

PubMed

Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

2017-12-01

Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Ionospheric research for space weather service support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

2016-07-01

Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is investigated. The products of the Project web sites at http://www.cbk.waw.pl/rwc and http://www.izmiran.ru/services/iweather are widely used in scientific investigations and numerous applications by the telecommunication and navigation operators and users whose number at the web sites is growing substantially from month to month.

The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?

PubMed

Eastwood, J P; Biffis, E; Hapgood, M A; Green, L; Bisi, M M; Bentley, R D; Wicks, R; McKinnell, L-A; Gibbs, M; Burnett, C

2017-02-01

Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) concepts demonstration project. Phase 1: Pilot's weather information requirements and implications for weather data systems design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crabill, Norman L.; Dash, Ernie R.

1991-01-01

The weather information requirements for pilots and the deficiencies of the current aviation weather support system in meeting these requirements are defined. As the amount of data available to pilots increases significantly in the near future, expert system technology will be needed to assist pilots in assimilating that information. Some other desirable characteristics of an automation-assisted system for weather data acquisition, dissemination, and assimilation are also described.

Kameleon Live: An Interactive Cloud Based Analysis and Visualization Platform for Space Weather Researchers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pembroke, A. D.; Colbert, J. A.

2015-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) provides hosting for many of the simulations used by the space weather community of scientists, educators, and forecasters. CCMC users may submit model runs through the Runs on Request system, which produces static visualizations of model output in the browser, while further analysis may be performed off-line via Kameleon, CCMC's cross-language access and interpolation library. Off-line analysis may be suitable for power-users, but storage and coding requirements present a barrier to entry for non-experts. Moreover, a lack of a consistent framework for analysis hinders reproducibility of scientific findings. To that end, we have developed Kameleon Live, a cloud based interactive analysis and visualization platform. Kameleon Live allows users to create scientific studies built around selected runs from the Runs on Request database, perform analysis on those runs, collaborate with other users, and disseminate their findings among the space weather community. In addition to showcasing these novel collaborative analysis features, we invite feedback from CCMC users as we seek to advance and improve on the new platform.

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

2013-01-01

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

Meteorological support for space operations: Review and recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The current meteorological support provided to NASA by NOAA, Air Weather Service, and other contractors is reviewed and suggestions are offered for its improvement. These recommendations include improvement in NASA's internal management organizational structure that would accommodate continued improvement in operational weather support, installation of new observing systems, improvement in analysis and forecasting procedures, and the establishment of an Applied Research and Forecasting Facility.

Urban weather data and building models for the inclusion of the urban heat island effect in building performance simulation.

PubMed

Palme, M; Inostroza, L; Villacreses, G; Lobato, A; Carrasco, C

2017-10-01

This data article presents files supporting calculation for urban heat island (UHI) inclusion in building performance simulation (BPS). Methodology is used in the research article "From urban climate to energy consumption. Enhancing building performance simulation by including the urban heat island effect" (Palme et al., 2017) [1]. In this research, a Geographical Information System (GIS) study is done in order to statistically represent the most important urban scenarios of four South-American cities (Guayaquil, Lima, Antofagasta and Valparaíso). Then, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is done to obtain reference Urban Tissues Categories (UTC) to be used in urban weather simulation. The urban weather files are generated by using the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) software (version 4.1 beta). Finally, BPS is run out with the Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) software (version 17). In this data paper, four sets of data are presented: 1) PCA data (excel) to explain how to group different urban samples in representative UTC; 2) UWG data (text) to reproduce the Urban Weather Generation for the UTC used in the four cities (4 UTC in Lima, Guayaquil, Antofagasta and 5 UTC in Valparaíso); 3) weather data (text) with the resulting rural and urban weather; 4) BPS models (text) data containing the TRNSYS models (four building models).

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

An Analysis of the Requirements for, and the Benefits and Costs of the National Microwave Landing System (MLS). Volume II,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-06-01

Base was searched for accidents which involved any one of the following conditions: i. An undershoot and crash while on final approach in IFR weather; 2... Crashed after executing a missed approach in IFR weather; 3. Crashed while on a circling approach in IFR weather. Two other types of accidents...45 108:15 5509 75 Hobbs Lea County 32:41 103:12 3664 75 Roswell Air Center 33:18 104:32 3649 76 NEW YORK Albany County 42:45 73:48 292 76 Binghamton

The Impact of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles on Short-term Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William

2007-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced spacebased atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AlRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used to retrieve temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers under both clear and partly cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived humidity profiles is 15% in 2 km layers. Critical to the successful use of AIRS profiles for weather and climate studies is the use of profile quality indicators and error estimates provided with each profile Aside form monitoring changes in Earth's climate, one of the objectives of AIRS is to provide sounding information of sufficient accuracy such that the assimilation of the new observations, especially in data sparse region, will lead to an improvement in weather forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate highresolution AIRS profile data in a regional analysis/forecast model. The paper will focus on the impact of AIRS profiles on a rapidly developing east coast storm and will also discuss preliminary results for a 30-day forecast period, simulating a quasi-operation environment. Temperature and moisture profiles were obtained from the prototype version 5.0 EOS science team retrieval algorithm which includes explicit error information for each profile. The error profile information was used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for every profile location and pressure level for assimilation into the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The AIRS-enhanced analyses were used as initial fields for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system used by the SPORT project for regional weather forecast studies. The ADASWRF system will be run on CONUS domain with an emphasis on the east coast. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, intelligent use of the quality indicators, and forecast verification.

Application of Lidar and other profiling techniques to study the impact that Severe weather hazards have on the New York City built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arend, Mark; Campmier, Mark; Fernandez, Aris; Moshary, Fred

2018-04-01

The complexity of urban boundary layer dynamics poses challenges to those responsible for the design and regulation of buildings and structures in the urban environment. Lidar systems in the New York City Metropolitan region have been used extensively to study urban boundary layer dynamics. These systems, in conjunction with other sensing platforms can provide an observatory to perform research and analysis of turbulent and inclement weather patterns of interest to developers and agencies.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC): Using innovative tools and services to support worldwide space weather scientific communities and networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M.; Bakshi, S.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Evans, R. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Lee, H.; MacNeice, P. J.; Maddox, M. M.; Mays, M. L.; Mullinix, R. E.; Ngwira, C. M.; Patel, K.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Shim, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was established to enhance basic solar terrestrial research and to aid in the development of models for specifying and forecasting conditions in the space environment. In achieving this goal, CCMC has developed and provides a set of innovative tools varying from: Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) web -based dissemination system for space weather information, Runs-On-Request System providing access to unique collection of state-of-the-art solar and space physics models (unmatched anywhere in the world), Advanced Online Visualization and Analysis tools for more accurate interpretation of model results, Standard Data formats for Simulation Data downloads, and recently Mobile apps (iPhone/Android) to view space weather data anywhere to the scientific community. The number of runs requested and the number of resulting scientific publications and presentations from the research community has not only been an indication of the broad scientific usage of the CCMC and effective participation by space scientists and researchers, but also guarantees active collaboration and coordination amongst the space weather research community. Arising from the course of CCMC activities, CCMC also supports community-wide model validation challenges and research focus group projects for a broad range of programs such as the multi-agency National Space Weather Program, NSF's CEDAR (Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions), GEM (Geospace Environment Modeling) and Shine (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment) programs. In addition to performing research and model development, CCMC also supports space science education by hosting summer students through local universities; through the provision of simulations in support of classroom programs such as Heliophysics Summer School (with student research contest) and CCMC Workshops; training next generation of junior scientists in space weather forecasting; and educating the general public about the importance and impacts of space weather effects. Although CCMC is organizationally comprised of United States federal agencies, CCMC services are open to members of the international science community and encourages interagency and international collaboration. In this poster, we provide an overview of using Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) tools and services to support worldwide space weather scientific communities and networks.;

Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. E.

2013-12-01

The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used to describe the connection between shocks and food prices, and to demonstrate the importance of these metrics in overall outcomes in food-insecure communities.

Network connectivity paradigm for the large data produced by weather radar systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenzi, Diego; Bechini, Renzo; Boraso, Rodolfo; Cremonini, Roberto; Fratianni, Simona

2014-05-01

The traffic over Internet is constantly increasing; this is due in particular to social networks activities but also to the enormous exchange of data caused especially by the so-called "Internet of Things". With this term we refer to every device that has the capability of exchanging information with other devices on the web. In geoscience (and, in particular, in meteorology and climatology) there is a constantly increasing number of sensors that are used to obtain data from different sources (like weather radars, digital rain gauges, etc.). This information-gathering activity, frequently, must be followed by a complex data analysis phase, especially when we have large data sets that can be very difficult to analyze (very long historical series of large data sets, for example), like the so called big data. These activities are particularly intensive in resource consumption and they lead to new computational models (like cloud computing) and new methods for storing data (like object store, linked open data, NOSQL or NewSQL). The weather radar systems can be seen as one of the sensors mentioned above: it transmit a large amount of raw data over the network (up to 40 megabytes every five minutes), with 24h/24h continuity and in any weather condition. Weather radar are often located in peaks and in wild areas where connectivity is poor. For this reason radar measurements are sometimes processed partially on site and reduced in size to adapt them to the limited bandwidth currently available by data transmission systems. With the aim to preserve the maximum flow of information, an innovative network connectivity paradigm for the large data produced by weather radar system is here presented. The study is focused on the Monte Settepani operational weather radar system, located over a wild peak summit in north-western Italy.

14 CFR 25.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. (a) The fuel system must perform satisfactorily in hot weather operation. This... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 25.961...

14 CFR 25.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. (a) The fuel system must perform satisfactorily in hot weather operation. This... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 25.961...

14 CFR 25.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. (a) The fuel system must perform satisfactorily in hot weather operation. This... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 25.961...

14 CFR 25.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. (a) The fuel system must perform satisfactorily in hot weather operation. This... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 25.961...

14 CFR 25.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 25.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. (a) The fuel system must perform satisfactorily in hot weather operation. This... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 25.961...

Relationship of Ground-level Ozone with Synoptic Weather Conditions in the Midwestern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, P.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between ground-level ozone (O3) and synoptic weather conditions in the Midwestern U.S. over the period 1990-2015 using the air quality data obtained from the U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) and meteorological data from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The results show that among the six different types of Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) weather, the occurrence of dry tropical (DT) weather conditions is most likely to lead to high O3 concentrations. The summertime O3 concentrations in the Midwest decreased at an average rate of 0.7 ppb yr-1 in the 95th percentiles from 1990 to 2015 in response to NO2 emission controls. However, O3 has become more dependent on temperature since 2008 and this was accompanied by more frequent DT weather and air stagnation. The results have implications for the likely effect of future climate change on O3 as a result of modified synoptic weather conditions.

Preliminary design package for prototype solar heating system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

A summary is given of the preliminary analysis and design activity on solar heating systems. The analysis was made without site specific data other than weather; therefore, the results indicate performance expected under these special conditions. Major items include system candidates, design approaches, trade studies and other special data required to evaluate the preliminary analysis and design. The program calls for the development and delivery of eight prototype solar heating and cooling systems for installation and operational test.

National Voice Response System (VRS) Implementation Plan Alternatives Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-07-01

This study examines the alternatives available to implement a national Voice Response System (VRS) for automated preflight weather briefings and flight plan filing. Four major hardware configurations are discussed. A computerized analysis model was d...

Analysis of MLS Based Surveillance System (MLSS) Concepts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-04-01

This report examines a number of surveillance system concepts to support safe independent runway approaches and converging runways under weather conditons. All surveillance conepts are based on the use of MLS signals. The resultin surveillance is ava...

Discover Space Weather and Sun's Superpowers: Using CCMC's innovative tools and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, A. M. M.; Maddox, M. M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Chulaki, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Mullinix, R.; Weigand, C.; Boblitt, J.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.; Mays, M. L.; Zheng, Y.; Shim, J. S.

2015-12-01

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has developed a comprehensive set of tools and applications that are directly applicable to space weather and space science education. These tools, some of which were developed by our student interns, are capable of serving a wide range of student audiences, from middle school to postgraduate research. They include a web-based point of access to sophisticated space physics models and visualizations, and a powerful space weather information dissemination system, available on the web and as a mobile app. In this demonstration, we will use CCMC's innovative tools to engage the audience in real-time space weather analysis and forecasting and will share some of our interns' hands-on experiences while being trained as junior space weather forecasters. The main portals to CCMC's educational material are ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov and iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov

Online Visualization and Analysis of Global Half-Hourly Infrared Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

2011-01-01

nfrared (IR) images (approximately 11-micron channel) recorded by satellite sensors have been widely used in weather forecasting, research, and classroom education since the Nimbus program. Unlike visible images, IR imagery can reveal cloud features without sunlight illumination; therefore, they can be used to monitor weather phenomena day and night. With geostationary satellites deployed around the globe, it is possible to monitor weather events 24/7 at a temporal resolution that polar-orbiting satellites cannot achieve at the present time. When IR data from multiple geostationary satellites are merged to form a single product--also known as a merged product--it allows for observing weather on a global scale. Its high temporal resolution (e.g., every half hour) also makes it an ideal ancillary dataset for supporting other satellite missions, such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), etc., by providing additional background information about weather system evolution.

The potential predictability of fire danger provided by ECMWF forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca

2017-04-01

The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), is currently being developed in the framework of the Copernicus Emergency Management Services to monitor and forecast fire danger in Europe. The system provides timely information to civil protection authorities in 38 nations across Europe and mostly concentrates on flagging regions which might be at high danger of spontaneous ignition due to persistent drought. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the US Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian forest service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI) and the Australian McArthur (MARK-5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting system. The global system's potential predictability is assessed using re-analysis fields as weather forcings. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) provides 11 years of observed burned areas from satellite measurements and is used as a validation dataset. The fire indices implemented are good predictors to highlight dangerous conditions. High values are correlated with observed fire and low values correspond to non observed events. A more quantitative skill evaluation was performed using the Extremal Dependency Index which is a skill score specifically designed for rare events. It revealed that the three indices were more skilful on a global scale than the random forecast to detect large fires. The performance peaks in the boreal forests, in the Mediterranean, the Amazon rain-forests and southeast Asia. The skill-scores were then aggregated at country level to reveal which nations could potentiallty benefit from the system information in aid of decision making and fire control support. Overall we found that fire danger modelling based on weather forecasts, can provide reasonable predictability over large parts of the global landmass.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry

1993-01-01

During the past eight years, we have been engaged in a NASA-supported program of research aimed at establishing the connection between satellite signatures of the earth's environmental state and the nonlinear dynamics of the global weather and climate system. Thirty-five publications and four theses have resulted from this work, which included contributions in five main areas of study: (1) cloud and latent heat processes in finite-amplitude baroclinic waves; (2) application of satellite radiation data in global weather analysis; (3) studies of planetary waves and low-frequency weather variability; (4) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to variable boundary conditions measurable from satellites; and (5) dynamics of long-term earth system changes. Significant accomplishments from the three main lines of investigation pursued during the past year are presented and include the following: (1) planetary atmospheric waves and low frequency variability; (2) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to changed boundary conditions; and (3) dynamics of long-term changes in the global earth system.

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled GSI/WRF Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Berndt, Emily; Li, Xuanli; Watson, Leela

2014-01-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) are the operational systems that make up the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) analysis used by National Weather Service forecasters. The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) manages and distributes the code for the WRF and GSI, but it is up to individual researchers to link the systems together and write scripts to run the systems, which can take considerable time for those not familiar with the code. The objective of this project is to develop and disseminate a set of dynamic scripts that mimic the unique cycling configuration of the operational NAM to enable researchers to develop new modeling and data assimilation techniques that can be easily transferred to operations. The current version of the SPoRT GSI/WRF Scripts (v3.0.1) is compatible with WRF v3.3 and GSI v3.0.

Decision Making and Risk Evaluation Frameworks for Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uritskaya, O.; Robinson, R. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme Space Weather events (ESWE) are in the spotlight nowadays because they can produce a significant impact not only due to their intensity and broad geographical scope, but also because of the widespread levels and the multiple sectors of the economy that could be involved. In the task of evaluation of the ESWE consequences, the most problematic and vulnerable aspect is the determination and calculation of the probability of statistically infrequent events and the subsequent assessment of the economic risks. In this work, we conduct a detailed analysis of the available frameworks of the general Decision-Making Theory in the presence of uncertainty, in the context of their applicability for the numerical estimation of the risks and losses associated with ESWE. The results of our study demonstrate that, unlike the Multiple-criteria decision analysis or Minimax approach to modeling of the possible scenarios for the ESWE effects, which prevail in the literature, the most suitable concept is the Games Against Nature (GAN). It enables an evaluation of every economically relevant aspect of space weather conditions and obtain more detailed results. Choosing the appropriate methods for solving GAN models, i.e. determining the most optimal strategy with a given level of uncertainty, requires estimating the conditional probabilities of Space Weather events for each outcome of possible scenarios of this natural disaster. Due to the specifics of complex natural and economic systems, with which we are dealing in this case, this problem remains unsolved, mainly because of inevitable loss of information at every stage of the decision-making process. The analysis is illustrated by deregulated electricity markets of the USA and Canada, whose power grid systems are known to be perceptive to ESWE. The GAN model is more appropriate in identifying potential risks in economic systems. The proposed approach, when applied to the existing database of Space Weather observations and numerical simulations, can provide more accurate forecasts of possible losses and allow for a more precise evaluation of the potential risks of the consequences of the ESWE for the vulnerable industries, such as electric power distribution systems, which have been shown to experience some of the most significant losses caused by ESWE.

Error discrimination of an operational hydrological forecasting system at a national scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, F.; Brauchli, T.

2010-09-01

The use of operational hydrological forecasting systems is recommended for hydropower production as well as flood management. However, the forecast uncertainties can be important and lead to bad decisions such as false alarms and inappropriate reservoir management of hydropower plants. In order to improve the forecasting systems, it is important to discriminate the different sources of uncertainties. To achieve this task, reanalysis of past predictions can be realized and provide information about the structure of the global uncertainty. In order to discriminate between uncertainty due to the weather numerical model and uncertainty due to the rainfall-runoff model, simulations assuming perfect weather forecast must be realized. This contribution presents the spatial analysis of the weather uncertainties and their influence on the river discharge prediction of a few different river basins where an operational forecasting system exists. The forecast is based on the RS 3.0 system [1], [2], which is also running the open Internet platform www.swissrivers.ch [3]. The uncertainty related to the hydrological model is compared to the uncertainty related to the weather prediction. A comparison between numerous weather prediction models [4] at different lead times is also presented. The results highlight an important improving potential of both forecasting components: the hydrological rainfall-runoff model and the numerical weather prediction models. The hydrological processes must be accurately represented during the model calibration procedure, while weather prediction models suffer from a systematic spatial bias. REFERENCES [1] Garcia, J., Jordan, F., Dubois, J. & Boillat, J.-L. 2007. "Routing System II, Modélisation d'écoulements dans des systèmes hydrauliques", Communication LCH n° 32, Ed. Prof. A. Schleiss, Lausanne [2] Jordan, F. 2007. Modèle de prévision et de gestion des crues - optimisation des opérations des aménagements hydroélectriques à accumulation pour la réduction des débits de crue, thèse de doctorat n° 3711, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale, Lausanne [3] Keller, R. 2009. "Le débit des rivières au peigne fin", Revue Technique Suisse, N°7/8 2009, Swiss engineering RTS, UTS SA, Lausanne, p. 11 [4] Kaufmann, P., Schubiger, F. & Binder, P. 2003. Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model : eight years of experience, Hydrology and Earth System

A quantitative analysis of the impact of wind turbines on operational Doppler weather radar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norin, L.

2015-02-01

In many countries wind turbines are rapidly growing in numbers as the demand for energy from renewable sources increases. The continued deployment of wind turbines can, however, be problematic for many radar systems, which are easily disturbed by turbines located in the radar line of sight. Wind turbines situated in the vicinity of Doppler weather radars can lead to erroneous precipitation estimates as well as to inaccurate wind and turbulence measurements. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the impact of a wind farm, located in southeastern Sweden, on measurements from a nearby Doppler weather radar. The analysis is based on 6 years of operational radar data. In order to evaluate the impact of the wind farm, average values of all three spectral moments (the radar reflectivity factor, absolute radial velocity, and spectrum width) of the nearby Doppler weather radar were calculated, using data before and after the construction of the wind farm. It is shown that all spectral moments, from a large area at and downrange from the wind farm, were impacted by the wind turbines. It was also found that data from radar cells far above the wind farm (near 3 km altitude) were affected by the wind farm. It is shown that this in part can be explained by detection by the radar sidelobes and by scattering off increased levels of dust and turbulence. In a detailed analysis, using data from a single radar cell, frequency distributions of all spectral moments were used to study the competition between the weather signal and wind turbine clutter. It is shown that, when weather echoes give rise to higher reflectivity values than those of the wind farm, the negative impact of the wind turbines is greatly reduced for all spectral moments.

A quantitative analysis of the impact of wind turbines on operational Doppler weather radar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norin, L.

2014-08-01

In many countries wind turbines are rapidly growing in numbers as the demand for energy from renewable sources increases. The continued deployment of wind turbines can, however, be problematic for many radar systems, which are easily disturbed by turbines located in radar line-of-sight. Wind turbines situated in the vicinity of Doppler weather radars can lead to erroneous precipitation estimates as well as to inaccurate wind- and turbulence measurements. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the impact of a wind farm, located in southeastern Sweden, on measurements from a nearby Doppler weather radar. The analysis is based on six years of operational radar data. In order to evaluate the impact of the wind farm, average values of all three spectral moments (the radar reflectivity factor, absolute radial velocity, and spectrum width) of the nearby Doppler weather radar were calculated, using data before and after the construction of the wind farm. It is shown that all spectral moments, from a large area at and downrange from the wind farm, were impacted by the wind turbines. It was also found that data from radar cells far above the wind farm (near 3 km altitude) were affected by the wind farm. We show that this is partly explained by changes in the atmospheric refractive index, bending the radar beams closer to the ground. In a detailed analysis, using data from a single radar cell, frequency distributions of all spectral moments were used to study the competition between the weather signal and wind turbine clutter. We show that when weather echoes give rise to higher reflectivity values than that of the wind farm, the negative impact of the wind turbines disappears for all spectral moments.

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

PubMed

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

Proceedings of the First National Workshop on the Global Weather Experiment: Current Achievements and Future Directions, volume 2, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Topics covered include: data systems and quality; analysis and assimilation techniques; impacts on forecasts; tropical forecasts; analysis intercomparisons; improvements in predictability; and heat sources and sinks.

Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

2013-04-01

The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

Impacts from urban water systems on receiving waters - How to account for severe wet-weather events in LCA?

PubMed

Risch, Eva; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Chebbo, Ghassan; Azimi, Sam; Rocher, Vincent; Roux, Philippe; Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Sinfort, Carole

2018-01-01

Sewage systems are a vital part of the urban infrastructure in most cities. They provide drainage, which protects public health, prevents the flooding of property and protects the water environment around urban areas. On some occasions sewers will overflow into the water environment during heavy rain potentially causing unacceptable impacts from releases of untreated sewage into the environment. In typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of urban wastewater systems (UWS), average dry-weather conditions are modelled while wet-weather flows from UWS, presenting a high temporal variability, are not currently accounted for. In this context, the loads from several storm events could be important contributors to the impact categories freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity. In this study we investigated the contributions of these wet-weather-induced discharges relative to average dry-weather conditions in the life cycle inventory for UWS. In collaboration with the Paris public sanitation service (SIAAP) and Observatory of Urban Pollutants (OPUR) program researchers, this work aimed at identifying and comparing contributing flows from the UWS in the Paris area by a selection of routine wastewater parameters and priority pollutants. This collected data is organized according to archetypal weather days during a reference year. Then, for each archetypal weather day and its associated flows to the receiving river waters (Seine), the parameters of pollutant loads (statistical distribution of concentrations and volumes) were determined. The resulting inventory flows (i.e. the potential loads from the UWS) were used as LCA input data to assess the associated impacts. This allowed investigating the relative importance of episodic wet-weather versus "continuous" dry-weather loads with a probabilistic approach to account for pollutant variability within the urban flows. The analysis at the scale of one year showed that storm events are significant contributors to the impacts of freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity compared to those arising from treated effluents. At the rain event scale the wet-weather contributions to these impacts are even more significant, accounting for example for up to 62% of the total impact on freshwater ecotoxicity. This also allowed investigating and discussing the ecotoxicity contribution of each class of pollutants among the broad range of inventoried substances. Finally, with such significant contributions of pollutant loads and associated impacts from wet-weather events, further research is required to better include temporally-differentiated emissions when evaluating eutrophication and ecotoxicity. This will provide a better understanding of how the performance of an UWS system affects the receiving environment for given local weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) weather responsive traveler information (Wx-TINFO) system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

FHWAs Road Weather Management Program partnered with MDOT to develop a weather responsive traveler information system called Wx-TINFO. The system, shown below, integrates multiple weather data sources into one program, enabling Transportation Oper...

Method and System for Dynamic Automated Corrections to Weather Avoidance Routes for Aircraft in En Route Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNally, B. David (Inventor); Erzberger, Heinz (Inventor); Sheth, Kapil (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A dynamic weather route system automatically analyzes routes for in-flight aircraft flying in convective weather regions and attempts to find more time and fuel efficient reroutes around current and predicted weather cells. The dynamic weather route system continuously analyzes all flights and provides reroute advisories that are dynamically updated in real time while the aircraft are in flight. The dynamic weather route system includes a graphical user interface that allows users to visualize, evaluate, modify if necessary, and implement proposed reroutes.

General-aviation's view of progress in the aviation weather system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundgren, Douglas J.

1988-01-01

For all its activity statistics, general-aviation is the most vulnerable to hazardous weather. Of concern to the general aviation industry are: (1) the slow pace of getting units of the Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS) to the field; (2) the efforts of the National Weather Service to withdraw from both the observation and dissemination roles of the aviation weather system; (3) the need for more observation points to improve the accuracy of terminal and area forecasts; (4) the need for improvements in all area forecasts, terminal forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts; (5) slow progress in cockpit weather displays; (6) the erosion of transcribed weather broadcasts (TWEB) and other deficiencies in weather information dissemination; (7) the need to push to make the Direct User Access Terminal (DUAT) a reality; and (7) the need to improve severe weather (thunderstorm) warning systems.

Glacial weathering, sulfide oxidation, and global carbon cycle feedbacks.

PubMed

Torres, Mark A; Moosdorf, Nils; Hartmann, Jens; Adkins, Jess F; West, A Joshua

2017-08-15

Connections between glaciation, chemical weathering, and the global carbon cycle could steer the evolution of global climate over geologic time, but even the directionality of feedbacks in this system remain to be resolved. Here, we assemble a compilation of hydrochemical data from glacierized catchments, use this data to evaluate the dominant chemical reactions associated with glacial weathering, and explore the implications for long-term geochemical cycles. Weathering yields from catchments in our compilation are higher than the global average, which results, in part, from higher runoff in glaciated catchments. Our analysis supports the theory that glacial weathering is characterized predominantly by weathering of trace sulfide and carbonate minerals. To evaluate the effects of glacial weathering on atmospheric pCO 2 , we use a solute mixing model to predict the ratio of alkalinity to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) generated by weathering reactions. Compared with nonglacial weathering, glacial weathering is more likely to yield alkalinity/DIC ratios less than 1, suggesting that enhanced sulfide oxidation as a result of glaciation may act as a source of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that oxidative fluxes could change ocean-atmosphere CO 2 equilibrium by 25 ppm or more over 10 ky. Over longer timescales, CO 2 release could act as a negative feedback, limiting progress of glaciation, dependent on lithology and the concentration of atmospheric O 2 Future work on glaciation-weathering-carbon cycle feedbacks should consider weathering of trace sulfide minerals in addition to silicate minerals.

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations from a variety of CMIP5 model ensembles. Here, we present results for the UK 2013/14 winter floods as proof of concept and we show validation and testing results that demonstrate the robustness of our method. We also revisit the record temperatures over Europe in 2014 and present a detailed analysis of this attribution exercise as it is one of the events to demonstrate that we can make a sensible statement of how the odds for such a year to occur have changed while it still unfolds.

Contributions to the AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, S. D. (Editor)

2002-01-01

This report contains six papers presented by the Lincoln Laboratory Air Traffic Control Systems Group at the American Institute of Aeronautics & Astronautics (AIAA) Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) conference on 6-9 August 2001 in Montreal, Canada. The work reported was sponsored by the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT) program and the FAA Free Flight Phase 1 (FFP1) program. The papers are based on studies completed at Lincoln Laboratory in collaboration with staff at NASA Ames Research Center. These papers were presented in the Air Traffic Automation Session of the conference and fall into three major areas: Traffic Analysis & Benefits Studies, Weather/Automation Integration and Surface Surveillance. In the first area, a paper by Andrews & Robinson presents an analysis of the efficiency of runway operations at Dallas/Ft. Worth using a tool called PARO, and a paper by Welch, Andrews & Robinson presents a delay benefit results for the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST). In the second area, a paper by Campbell, et al describes a new weather distribution systems for the Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) that allows ingestion of multiple weather sources, and a paper by Vandevenne, Lloyd & Hogaboom describes the use of the NOAA Eta model as a backup wind data source for CTAS. Also in this area, a paper by Murphy & Campbell presents initial steps towards integrating weather impacted routes into FAST. In the third area, a paper by Welch, Bussolari and Atkins presents an initial operational concept for using surface surveillance to reduce taxi delays.

Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kronfeld, Kevin M. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

An airborne weather radar system, the Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR), with enhanced on-board weather radar data processing was developed and tested. The system features additional weather data that is uplinked from ground-based sources, specialized data processing, and limited automatic radar control to search for hazardous weather. National Weather Service (NWS) ground-based Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) information is used by the EWxR system to augment the on-board weather radar information. The system will simultaneously display NEXRAD and on-board weather radar information in a split-view format. The on-board weather radar includes an automated or hands-free storm-finding feature that optimizes the radar returns by automatically adjusting the tilt and range settings for the current altitude above the terrain and searches for storm cells near the atmospheric 0-degree isotherm. A rule-based decision aid was developed to automatically characterize cells as hazardous, possibly-hazardous, or non-hazardous based upon attributes of that cell. Cell attributes are determined based on data from the on-board radar and from ground-based radars. A flight path impact prediction algorithm was developed to help pilots to avoid hazardous weather along their flight plan and their mission. During development the system was tested on the NASA B757 aircraft and final tests were conducted on the Rockwell Collins Sabreliner.

Utilization of satellite data and regional scale numerical models in short range weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreitzberg, C. W.

1985-01-01

Overwhelming evidence was developed in a number of studies of satellite data impact on numerical weather prediction that it is unrealistic to expect satellite temperature soundings to improve detailed regional numerical weather prediction. It is likely that satellite data over the United States would substantially impact mesoscale dynamical predictions if the effort were made to develop a composite moisture analysis system. The horizontal variability of moisture, most clearly depicited in images from satellite water vapor channels, would not be determined from conventional rawinsondes even if that network were increased by a doubling of both the number of sites and the time frequency.

Advanced Analysis and Visualization of Space Weather Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Joshua J.

As the world becomes more technologically reliant, the more susceptible society as a whole is to adverse interactions with the sun. This "space weather'' can produce significant effects on modern technology, from interrupting satellite service, to causing serious damage to Earth-side power grids. These concerns have, over the past several years, prompted an out-welling of research in an attempt to understand the processes governing, and to provide a means of forecasting, space weather events. The research presented in this thesis couples to current work aimed at understanding Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their influence on the evolution of Earth's magnetic field and associated Van Allen radiation belts. To aid in the analysis of how these solar wind transients affect Earth's magnetic field, a system named Geospace/Heliosphere Observation & Simulation Tool-kit (GHOSTkit), along with its python analysis tools, GHOSTpy, has been devised to calculate the adiabatic invariants of trapped particle motion within Earth's magnetic field. These invariants aid scientists in ordering observations of the radiation belts, providing a more natural presentation of data, but can be computationally expensive to calculate. The GHOSTpy system, in the phase presented here, is aimed at providing invariant calculations based on LFM magnetic field simulation data. This research first examines an ideal dipole application to gain understanding on system performance. Following this, the challenges of applying the algorithms to gridded LFM MHD data is examined. Performance profiles are then presented, followed by a real-world application of the system.

Effects of weathering on performance of intumescent coatings for structure fire protection in the wildland-urban interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahrani, Babak

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weathering on the performance of intumescent fire-retardant coatings on wooden products. The weathering effects included primary (solar irradiation, moisture, and temperature) and secondary (environmental contaminants) parameters at various time intervals. Wildland urban interface (WUI) fires have been an increasing threat to lives and properties. Existing solutions to mitigate the damages caused by WUI fires include protecting the structures from ignition and minimizing the fire spread from one structure to another. These solutions can be divided into two general categories: active fire protection systems and passive fire protection systems. Passive systems are either using pre-applied wetting agents (water, gel, or foam) or adding an extra layer (composite wraps or coatings). Fire-retardant coating treatment methods can be divided into impregnated (penetrant) and intumescent categories. Intumescent coatings are easy to apply, economical, and have a better appearance in comparison to other passive fire protection methods, and are the main focus of this study. There have been limited studies conducted on the application of intumescent coatings on wooden structures and their performance after long-term weathering exposure. The main concerns of weathering effects are: 1) the reduction of ignition resistance of the coating layer after weathering; and 2) the fire properties of coatings after weathering since coatings might contribute as a combustible fuel and assist the fire growth after ignition. Three intumescent coatings were selected and exposed to natural weathering conditions in three different time intervals. Two types of tests were performed on the specimens: a combustibility test consisted of a bench-scale performance evaluation using a Cone Calorimeter, and a thermal decomposition test using Simultaneous Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) method (also known as SDT). For each coating type and weathering period, three different radiative heat flux levels were used in the combustibility tests. Data obtained from the tests, including flammability and thermal properties, were gathered, analyzed, and compared to non-weathered specimens. The results revealed visible effects of weathering on pre (and up to)-ignition flammability and intumescent properties, especially decreases in Time-to-Ignition (TTI), Time-to-Intumescence (tintu.), and (maximum) Intumescence Height (Hintu.) values in weathered specimens. These results showed that the ignition resistance of the coating layers decreased after weathering exposure. On the other hand, the obtained results from weathered specimens for the post-ignition flammability properties, especially Peak Heat Release Rate (PHRR) and Effective Heat of Combustion (EHC) did not show a significant difference in comparison to the non-weathered samples. These results demonstrated that the weathered coating layer would not likely to act as an additional combustible fuel to increase fire spread.

Proactive pavement asset management with climate change aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zofka, Adam

2018-05-01

Pavement Asset Management System is a systematic and objective tool to manage pavement network based on the rational, engineering and economic principles. Once implemented and mature Pavement Asset Management System serves the entire range of users starting with the maintenance engineers and ending with the decision-makers. Such a system is necessary to coordinate agency management strategy including proactive maintenance. Basic inputs in the majority of existing Pavement Asset Management System approaches comprise the actual pavement inventory with associated construction history and condition, traffic information as well as various economical parameters. Some Pavement Management System approaches include also weather aspects which is of particular importance considering ongoing climate changes. This paper presents challenges in implementing the Pavement Asset Management System for those National Road Administrations that manage their pavement assets using more traditional strategies, e.g. worse-first approach. Special considerations are given to weather-related inputs and associated analysis to demonstrate the effects of climate change in a short- and long-term range. Based on the presented examples this paper concludes that National Road Administrations should account for the weather-related factors in their Pavement Management Systems as this has a significant impact on the system outcomes from the safety and economical perspective.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III; Hoeth, Brian

2009-01-01

This abstract describes work that will be done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting "wind cycling" cases at Edwards Air Force Base, CA (EAFB), in which the wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and determine which configuration will best predict surface wind speed and direction at EAFB.

Some effects of adverse weather conditions on performance of airplane antiskid braking systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horne, W. B.; Mccarty, J. L.; Tanner, J. A.

1976-01-01

The performance of current antiskid braking systems operating under adverse weather conditions was analyzed in an effort to both identify the causes of locked-wheel skids which sometimes occur when the runway is slippery and to find possible solutions to this operational problem. This analysis was made possible by the quantitative test data provided by recently completed landing research programs using fully instrumented flight test airplanes and was further supported by tests performed at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The antiskid system logic for brake control and for both touchdown and locked-wheel protection is described and its response behavior in adverse weather is discussed in detail with the aid of available data. The analysis indicates that the operational performance of the antiskid logic circuits is highly dependent upon wheel spin-up acceleration and can be adversely affected by certain pilot braking inputs when accelerations are low. Normal antiskid performance is assured if the tire-to-runway traction is sufficient to provide high wheel spin-up accelerations or if the system is provided a continuous, accurate ground speed reference. The design of antiskid systems is complicated by the necessity for tradeoffs between tire braking and cornering capabilities, both of which are necessary to provide safe operations in the presence of cross winds, particularly under slippery runway conditions.

Mesoscale data assimilation for a local severe rainfall event with the NHM-LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunii, M.

2013-12-01

This study aims to improve forecasts of local severe weather events through data assimilation and ensemble forecasting approaches. Here, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented with the Japan Meteorological Agency's nonhydrostatic model (NHM). The newly developed NHM-LETKF contains an adaptive inflation scheme and a spatial covariance localization scheme with physical distance. One-way nested analysis in which a finer-resolution LETKF is conducted by using the outputs of an outer model also becomes feasible. These new contents should enhance the potential of the LETKF for convective scale events. The NHM-LETKF is applied to a local severe rainfall event in Japan in 2012. Comparison of the root mean square errors between the model first guess and analysis reveals that the system assimilates observations appropriately. Analysis ensemble spreads indicate a significant increase around the time torrential rainfall occurred, which would imply an increase in the uncertainty of environmental fields. Forecasts initialized with LETKF analyses successfully capture intense rainfalls, suggesting that the system can work effectively for local severe weather. Investigation of probabilistic forecasts by ensemble forecasting indicates that this could become a reliable data source for decision making in the future. A one-way nested data assimilation scheme is also tested. The experiment results demonstrate that assimilation with a finer-resolution model provides an advantage in the quantitative precipitation forecasting of local severe weather conditions.

Application of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to determining science and user requirements for space-based missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atlas, R. M.

2016-12-01

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) provide an effective method for evaluating the potential impact of proposed new observing systems, as well as for evaluating trade-offs in observing system design, and in developing and assessing improved methodology for assimilating new observations. As such, OSSEs can be an important tool for determining science and user requirements, and for incorporating these requirements into the planning for future missions. Detailed OSSEs have been conducted at NASA/ GSFC and NOAA/AOML in collaboration with Simpson Weather Associates and operational data assimilation centers over the last three decades. These OSSEs determined correctly the quantitative potential for several proposed satellite observing systems to improve weather analysis and prediction prior to their launch, evaluated trade-offs in orbits, coverage and accuracy for space-based wind lidars, and were used in the development of the methodology that led to the first beneficial impacts of satellite surface winds on numerical weather prediction. In this talk, the speaker will summarize the development of OSSE methodology, early and current applications of OSSEs and how OSSEs will evolve in order to enhance mission planning.

Impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on urban climate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Linlin; Liu, Yubao; Liu, Yuewei; Li, Lei; Jiang, Yin; Cheng, Will; Roux, Gregory

2015-12-01

This study investigates the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) on urban climate analysis, which employs the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) WRF (the weather research and forecasting model) based on climate FDDA (CFDDA) technology to develop an urban-scale microclimatology database for the Shenzhen area, a rapidly developing metropolitan located along the southern coast of China, where uniquely high-density observations, including ultrahigh-resolution surface AWS (automatic weather station) network, radio sounding, wind profilers, radiometers, and other weather observation platforms, have been installed. CFDDA is an innovative dynamical downscaling regional climate analysis system that assimilates diverse regional observations; and has been employed to produce a 5 year multiscale high-resolution microclimate analysis by assimilating high-density observations at Shenzhen area. The CFDDA system was configured with four nested-grid domains at grid sizes of 27, 9, 3, and 1 km, respectively. This research evaluates the impact of assimilating high-resolution observation data on reproducing the refining features of urban-scale circulations. Two experiments were conducted with a 5 year run using CFSR (climate forecast system reanalysis) as boundary and initial conditions: one with CFDDA and the other without. The comparisons of these two experiments with observations indicate that CFDDA greatly reduces the model analysis error and is able to realistically analyze the microscale features such as urban-rural-coastal circulation, land/sea breezes, and local-hilly terrain thermal circulations. It is demonstrated that the urbanization can produce 2.5 k differences in 2 m temperatures, delays/speeds up the land/sea breeze development, and interacts with local mountain-valley circulations.

Glacial weathering, sulfide oxidation, and global carbon cycle feedbacks

PubMed Central

Torres, Mark A.; Moosdorf, Nils; Hartmann, Jens; Adkins, Jess F.

2017-01-01

Connections between glaciation, chemical weathering, and the global carbon cycle could steer the evolution of global climate over geologic time, but even the directionality of feedbacks in this system remain to be resolved. Here, we assemble a compilation of hydrochemical data from glacierized catchments, use this data to evaluate the dominant chemical reactions associated with glacial weathering, and explore the implications for long-term geochemical cycles. Weathering yields from catchments in our compilation are higher than the global average, which results, in part, from higher runoff in glaciated catchments. Our analysis supports the theory that glacial weathering is characterized predominantly by weathering of trace sulfide and carbonate minerals. To evaluate the effects of glacial weathering on atmospheric pCO2, we use a solute mixing model to predict the ratio of alkalinity to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) generated by weathering reactions. Compared with nonglacial weathering, glacial weathering is more likely to yield alkalinity/DIC ratios less than 1, suggesting that enhanced sulfide oxidation as a result of glaciation may act as a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that oxidative fluxes could change ocean–atmosphere CO2 equilibrium by 25 ppm or more over 10 ky. Over longer timescales, CO2 release could act as a negative feedback, limiting progress of glaciation, dependent on lithology and the concentration of atmospheric O2. Future work on glaciation–weathering–carbon cycle feedbacks should consider weathering of trace sulfide minerals in addition to silicate minerals. PMID:28760954

Fire danger assessment using ECMWF weather prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Pappemberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2015-04-01

Weather plays a major role in the birth, growth and death of a wildfire wherever there is availability of combustible vegetation and suitable terrain topography. Prolonged dry periods creates favourable conditions for ignitions, wind can then increase the fire spread, while higher relative humidity, and precipitation (rain or snow) may decrease or extinguish it altogether. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), started in 2011 under the lead of the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) to monitor and forecast fire danger and fire behaviour in Europe. In 2012 a collaboration with the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was established to explore the potential of using state of the art weather forecast systems as driving forcing for the calculations of fire risk indices. From this collaboration in 2013 the EC-fire system was born. It implements the three most commonly used fire danger rating systems (NFDRS, FWI and MARK-5) and it is both initialised and forced by gridded atmospheric fields provided either by ECMWF re-analysis or ECMWF ensemble prediction systems. For consistency invariant fields (i.e fuel maps, vegetation cover, topogarphy) and real-time weather information are all provided on the same grid. Similarly global climatological vegetation stage conditions for each day of the year are provided by remote satellite observations. These climatological static maps substitute the traditional man judgement in an effort to create an automated procedure that can work in places where local observations are not available. The system has been in operation for the last year providing an ensemble of daily forecasts for fire indices with lead-times up to 10 days over Europe and Globally. An important part of the system is provided by its (re)-analysis dataset obtained by using the (re)-analysis forcings as drivers to calculate the fire risk indices. This is a crucial part of the whole chain since these fields are used to establish the initial conditions from which the forecast is subsequently run. The reanalysis dataset goes back to year 1980 (the starting year of ERA-Interim integrations) and is updated in quasi real time. In addition of providing the staring point for the operational forecasts it is a very useful dataset for the scope of calibration and verification of the system. Assuming reanalysis fields are good proxies for observations then, by comparison with fire events which really occurred, this dataset can be used to assess the potential predictability of fire risk indices. In this work we will introduce the EC-fire system. Then the reanalysis dataset will be used to identify regions of high fire risk predictability and where the system might be in need of further refinement.

76 FR 67018 - Notice to Manufacturers of Airport In-Pavement Stationary Runway Weather Information Systems

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-28

...-Pavement Stationary Runway Weather Information Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. DOT. ACTION: Notice to Manufacturers of In-Pavement Stationary Runway Weather Information Systems... waivers to foreign manufacturers of Active or Passive In- Pavement Stationary Runway Weather Information...

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, Gerd M.; Omotoso, Oluseun; Chen, Guangming; Evans, John W.

2012-01-01

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Toward a Concept of Operations for Aviation Weather Information Implementation in the Evolving National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McAdaragh, Raymon M.

2002-01-01

The capacity of the National Airspace System is being stressed due to the limits of current technologies. Because of this, the FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies to increase the system's capacity which enhancing safety. Adverse weather has been determined to be a major factor in aircraft accidents and fatalities and the FAA and NASA have developed programs to improve aviation weather information technologies and communications for system users The Aviation Weather Information Element of the Weather Accident Prevention Project of NASA's Aviation Safety Program is currently working to develop these technologies in coordination with the FAA and industry. This paper sets forth a theoretical approach to implement these new technologies while addressing the National Airspace System (NAS) as an evolving system with Weather Information as one of its subSystems. With this approach in place, system users will be able to acquire the type of weather information that is needed based upon the type of decision-making situation and condition that is encountered. The theoretical approach addressed in this paper takes the form of a model for weather information implementation. This model addresses the use of weather information in three decision-making situations, based upon the system user's operational perspective. The model also addresses two decision-making conditions, which are based upon the need for collaboration due to the level of support offered by the weather information provided by each new product or technology. The model is proposed for use in weather information implementation in order to provide a systems approach to the NAS. Enhancements to the NAS collaborative decision-making capabilities are also suggested.

Scatterometer capabilities in remotely sensing geophysical parameters over the ocean: The status and the possibilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, R. A.

1984-01-01

Extensive comparison between surface measurements and satellite Scatt signal and predicted winds show successful wind and weather analysis comparable with conventional weather service analyses. However, in regions often of the most interest, e.g., fronts and local storms, inadequacies in the latter fields leaves an inability to establish the satellite sensor capabilities. Thus, comparisons must be made between wind detecting measurements and other satellite measurements of clouds, moisture, waves or any other parameter which responds to sharp gradients in the wind. At least for the windfields and the derived surface pressure field analysis, occasional surface measurements are required to anchor and monitor the satellite analyses. Their averaging times must be made compatible with the satellite sensor measurement. Careful attention must be paid to the complex fields which contain many scales of turbulence and coherent structures affecting the averaging process. The satellite microwave system is capable of replacing the conventional point observation/numerical analysis for the ocean weather.

An overview of 2016 WISE Urban Summer Observation Campaign (WUSOC 2016) in the Seoul metropolitan area of South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Jae-Won; Kim, Sang-Woo; Shim, Jae-Kwan; Kwak, Kyung-Hwan

2017-04-01

The Weather Information Service Engine (WISE), launched project of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), aims to operate the urban meteorological observation network from 2012 to 2019 and to test and operate the application weather service (e.g., flash flood, road weather, city ecology, city microclimate, dispersion of hazardous substance etc.) in 2019 through the development of Advanced Storm-scale Analysis Prediction System(ASAPS) for the production of storm-scale hazard weather monitoring and prediction system. The WISE institute has completed construction of 31 urban meteorological observation cities in Seoul metropolitan area and has built a real-time test operation and verification system by improving the ASAPS that produces 1 km and 6 hour forecast information based on the 5 km forecast information of KMA. Field measurements of 2016 WISE Urban Summer Observation Campaign (WUSOC 2016) was conducted in the Seoul metropolitan area of South Korea from August 22 to October 14, 2016. Involving over 70 researchers from more than 12 environmental and atmospheric science research groups in South Korea, WUSOC2016 focused on special observations, severe rain storm observations using mobile observation car and radiosonde, wind profile observations using Wind Doppler Lidar and radiosonde, etc., around the Seoul metropolitan area. WUSOC2016 purpose at data quality control, accuracy verification, usability check, and quality improvement of ASAPS at observation stations constructed in WISE. In addition, we intend to contribute to the activation of urban fusion weather research and risk weather research through joint observation and data sharing.

Differences in Meteorological Conditions between Days with Persistent and Non-Persistent Pollution in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Ting; Wu, Renguang; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

We compared the regional synoptic patterns and local meteorological conditions during persistent and non-persistent pollution events in Beijing using US NCEP-Department of Energy reanalysis outputs and observations from meteorological stations. The analysis focused on the impacts of high-frequency (period < 90 days) variations in meteorological conditions on persistent pollution events (those lasting for at least 3 days). Persistent pollution events tended to occur in association with slow-moving weather systems producing stagnant weather conditions, whereas rapidly moving weather systems caused a dramatic change in the local weather conditions so that the pollution event was short-lived. Although Beijing was under the influence of anomalous southerly winds in all four seasons during pollution events, notable differences were identified in the regional patterns of sea-level pressure and local anomalies in relative humidity among persistent pollution events in different seasons. A region of lower pressure was present to the north of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, whereas regions of lower and higher pressures were observed northwest and southeast of Beijing, respectively, in summer. The relative humidity near Beijing was higher in fall and winter, but lower in spring and summer. These differences may explain the seasonal dependence of the relationship between air pollution and the local meteorological variables. Our analysis showed that the temperature inversion in the lower troposphere played an important part in the occurrence of air pollution under stagnant weather conditions. Some results from this study are based on a limited number of events and thus require validation using more data.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary

2012-01-01

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.

Assessment of Montana road weather information system : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

Weather presents considerable challenges to highway agencies both in terms of safety and operations. State transportation agencies have developed road weather information systems (RWIS) to address such challenges. Road weather information has been us...

Pilot weather advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kilgore, W. A.; Seth, S.; Crabill, N. L.; Shipley, S. T.; Graffman, I.; Oneill, J.

1992-01-01

The results of the work performed by ViGYAN, Inc., to demonstrate the Pilot Weather Advisor cockpit weather data system using a broadcast satellite communication system are presented. The Pilot Weather Advisor demonstrated that the technical problems involved with transmitting significant amount of weather data to an aircraft in-flight or on-the-ground via satellite are solvable with today's technology. The Pilot Weather Advisor appears to be a viable solution for providing accurate and timely weather information for general aviation aircraft.

Supercooled Liquid Water Content Instrument Analysis and Winter 2014 Data with Comparisons to the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System and Pilot Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, Michael C.

2016-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed a system for remotely detecting the hazardous conditions leading to aircraft icing in flight, the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System (NIRSS). Newly developed, weather balloon-borne instruments have been used to obtain in-situ measurements of supercooled liquid water during March 2014 to validate the algorithms used in the NIRSS. A mathematical model and a processing method were developed to analyze the data obtained from the weather balloon soundings. The data from soundings obtained in March 2014 were analyzed and compared to the output from the NIRSS and pilot reports.

Graphical Weather Information System Evaluation: Usability, Perceived Utility, and Preferences from General Aviation Pilots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara A.; Chamberlain, James P.

2002-01-01

Weather is a significant factor in General Aviation (GA) accidents and fatality rates. Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) for the flight deck are appropriate technologies for mitigating the difficulties GA pilots have with current aviation weather information sources. This paper describes usability evaluations of a prototype GWIS by 12 GA pilots after using the system in flights towards convective weather. We provide design guidance for GWISs and discuss further research required to support weather situation awareness and in-flight decision making for GA pilots.

Recent Applications of Space Weather Research to NASA Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, Emily M.; Howard, James W., Jr.; Miller, J. Scott; Minow, Joseph I.; NeergardParker, L.; Suggs, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center s Space Environments Team is committed to applying the latest research in space weather to NASA programs. We analyze data from an extensive set of space weather satellites in order to define the space environments for some of NASA s highest profile programs. Our goal is to ensure that spacecraft are designed to be successful in all environments encountered during their missions. We also collaborate with universities, industry, and other federal agencies to provide analysis of anomalies and operational impacts to current missions. This presentation is a summary of some of our most recent applications of space weather data, including the definition of the space environments for the initial phases of the Space Launch System (SLS), acquisition of International Space Station (ISS) frame potential variations during geomagnetic storms, and Nascap-2K charging analyses.

Air Force Global Weather Central System Architecture Study. Final System/Subsystem Summary Report. Volume 2. Requirements Compilation and Analysis. Part 3. Characteristics Summaries and Network Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-03-01

DB DC DCT DDB DET DF DFS DML DMS DMSP DOD DS DSARC DT EDB EDS EG ESSA ETAC EWO Control and Reporting Post Cathode Ray Tube...National and Aviation Meteorological Facsimile Network NC - Network Control NCA - National Command Authority NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric

Improvement of Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System (ASAPS) on Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jeong-Gyun; Jee, Joon-Bum

2017-04-01

Dangerous weather such as severe rain, heavy snow, drought and heat wave caused by climate change make more damage in the urban area that dense populated and industry areas. Urban areas, unlike the rural area, have big population and transportation, dense the buildings and fuel consumption. Anthropogenic factors such as road energy balance, the flow of air in the urban is unique meteorological phenomena. However several researches are in process about prediction of urban meteorology. ASAPS (Advanced Storm-scale Analysis and Prediction System) predicts a severe weather with very short range (prediction with 6 hour) and high resolution (every hour with time and 1 km with space) on Seoul metropolitan area based on KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). This system configured three parts that make a background field (SUF5), analysis field (SU01) with observation and forecast field with high resolution (SUF1). In this study, we improve a high-resolution ASAPS model and perform a sensitivity test for the rainfall case. The improvement of ASAPS include model domain configuration, high resolution topographic data and data assimilation with WISE observation data.

Benefits of Sharing Information from Commercial Airborne Forward-Looking Sensors in the Next Generation Air Transportation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaffner, Philip R.; Harrah, Steven; Neece, Robert T.

2012-01-01

The air transportation system of the future will need to support much greater traffic densities than are currently possible, while preserving or improving upon current levels of safety. Concepts are under development to support a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) that by some estimates will need to support up to three times current capacity by the year 2025. Weather and other atmospheric phenomena, such as wake vortices and volcanic ash, constitute major constraints on airspace system capacity and can present hazards to aircraft if encountered. To support safe operations in the NextGen environment advanced systems for collection and dissemination of aviation weather and environmental information will be required. The envisioned NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) infrastructure will be a critical component of the aviation weather support services, providing access to a common weather picture for all system users. By taking advantage of Network Enabled Operations (NEO) capabilities, a virtual 4-D Weather Data Cube with aviation weather information from many sources will be developed. One new source of weather observations may be airborne forward-looking sensors, such as the X-band weather radar. Future sensor systems that are the subject of current research include advanced multi-frequency and polarimetric radar, a variety of Lidar technologies, and infrared imaging spectrometers.

Roadway weather information system and automatic vehicle location (AVL) coordination.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-28

Roadway Weather Information System and Automatic Vehicle Location Coordination involves the : development of an Inclement Weather Console that provides a new capability for the state of Oklahoma : to monitor weather-related roadway conditions. The go...

Analysis of Multi-Flight Common Routes for Traffic Flow Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; Clymer, Alexis; Morando, Alex; Shih, Fu-Tai

2016-01-01

This paper presents an approach for creating common weather avoidance reroutes for multiple flights and the associated benefits analysis, which is an extension of the single flight advisories generated using the Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) concept. These multiple flight advisories are implemented in the National Airspace System (NAS) Constraint Evaluation and Notification Tool (NASCENT), a nation-wide simulation environment to generate time- and fuel-saving alternate routes for flights during severe weather events. These single flight advisories are clustered together in the same Center by considering parameters such as a common return capture fix. The clustering helps propose routes called, Multi-Flight Common Routes (MFCR), that avoid weather and other airspace constraints, and save time and fuel. It is expected that these routes would also provide lower workload for traffic managers and controllers since a common route is found for several flights, and presumably the route clearances would be easier and faster. This study was based on 30-days in 2014 and 2015 each, which had most delays attributed to convective weather. The results indicate that many opportunities exist where individual flight routes can be clustered to fly along a common route to save a significant amount of time and fuel, and potentially reducing the amount of coordination needed.

Analysis of GEO spacecraft anomalies: Space weather relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Ho-Sung; Lee, Jaejin; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Kwak, Young-Sil; Cho, Il-Hyun; Park, Young-Deuk; Kim, Yeon-Han; Baker, Daniel N.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Lee, Dong-Kyu

2011-06-01

While numerous anomalies and failures of spacecraft have been reported since the beginning of the space age, space weather effects on modern spacecraft systems have been emphasized more and more with the increase of their complexity and capability. However, the relationship between space weather and commercial satellite anomalies has not been studied extensively. In this paper, we investigate the geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite anomalies archived by Satellite News Digest during 1997-2009 in order to search for possible influences of space weather on the anomaly occurrences. We analyze spacecraft anomalies for the Kp index, local time, and season and then compare them with the tendencies of charged particles observed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. We obtain the following results: (1) there are good relationships between geomagnetic activity (as measured by the Kp index) and anomaly occurrences of the GEO satellites; (2) the satellite anomalies occurred mainly in the midnight to morning sector; and (3) the anomalies are found more frequently in spring and fall than summer and winter. While we cannot fully explain how space weather is involved in producing such anomalies, our analysis of LANL data shows that low-energy (<100 keV) electrons have similar behaviors with spacecraft anomalies and implies the spacecraft charging might dominantly contribute to the GEO spacecraft anomalies reported in Satellite News Digest.

Final report of the operation and demonstration test of short-range weather forecasting decision support within an advanced transportation weather information system (#Safe)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-04-01

The purpose of the Advanced Transportation Weather Information System (ATWIS) was to provide en-route weather forecasts and road condition information to the traveling public across North Dakota and South Dakota. ATWIS was the first system to develop...

Arduino Based Weather Monitoring Telemetry System Using NRF24L01+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidqi, Rafi; Rio Rynaldo, Bagus; Hadi Suroso, Satya; Firmansyah, Rifqi

2018-04-01

Abstract-Weather is an important part of the natural environment, thus knowing weather information is needed before doing activity. The main purpose of this research was to develop a weather monitoring system which capable to transmit weather data via radio frequency by using nRF24L01+ 2,4GHz radio module. This research implement Arduino UNO as the main controller of the system which send data wirelessly using the radio module and received by a receiver system. Received data then logged and displayed using a Graphical User Interface on a personal computer. Test and experiment result show that the system was able to transmit weather data via radio wave with maximum transmitting range of 32 meters.

Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978. [global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.

FireMap: A Web Tool for Dynamic Data-Driven Predictive Wildfire Modeling Powered by the WIFIRE Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, J.; Crawl, D.; Artes, T.; Cowart, C.; de Callafon, R.; DeFanti, T.; Graham, J.; Smarr, L.; Srivas, T.; Altintas, I.

2016-12-01

The NSF-funded WIFIRE project has designed a web-based wildfire modeling simulation and visualization tool called FireMap. The tool executes FARSITE to model fire propagation using dynamic weather and fire data, configuration settings provided by the user, and static topography and fuel datasets already built-in. Using GIS capabilities combined with scalable big data integration and processing, FireMap enables simple execution of the model with options for running ensembles by taking the information uncertainty into account. The results are easily viewable, sharable, repeatable, and can be animated as a time series. From these capabilities, users can model real-time fire behavior, analyze what-if scenarios, and keep a history of model runs over time for sharing with collaborators. Firemap runs FARSITE with national and local sensor networks for real-time weather data ingestion and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather for forecasted weather. The HRRR is a NOAA/NCEP operational weather prediction system comprised of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize the model. It is run with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, has 50 vertical levels, and has a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The HRRR requires an Environmental Data Exchange (EDEX) server to receive the feed and generate secondary products out of it for the modeling. UCSD's EDEX server, funded by NSF, makes high-resolution weather data available to researchers worldwide and enables visualization of weather systems and weather events lasting months or even years. The high-speed server aggregates weather data from the University Consortium for Atmospheric Research by way of a subscription service from the Consortium called the Internet Data Distribution system. These features are part of WIFIRE's long term goals to build an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. Although Firemap is a research product of WIFIRE, developed in collaboration with a number of fire departments, the tool is operational in pilot form for providing big data-driven predictive fire spread modeling. Most recently, FireMap was used for situational awareness in the July 2016 Sand Fire by LA City and LA County Fire Departments.

Pilot Weather Advisor System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindamood, Glenn; Martzaklis, Konstantinos Gus; Hoffler, Keith; Hill, Damon; Mehrotra, Sudhir C.; White, E. Richard; Fisher, Bruce D.; Crabill, Norman L.; Tucholski, Allen D.

2006-01-01

The Pilot Weather Advisor (PWA) system is an automated satellite radio-broadcasting system that provides nearly real-time weather data to pilots of aircraft in flight anywhere in the continental United States. The system was designed to enhance safety in two distinct ways: First, the automated receipt of information would relieve the pilot of the time-consuming and distracting task of obtaining weather information via voice communication with ground stations. Second, the presentation of the information would be centered around a map format, thereby making the spatial and temporal relationships in the surrounding weather situation much easier to understand

Viking survey paper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soffen, G.

1976-01-01

The paper reviews Viking injection into Mars orbit, the landing, and the Orbiter. The following Viking investigations are discussed: the search for life (photosynthetic analysis, metabolic analysis, and respiration), molecular analysis, inorganic chemistry, water detection, thermal mapping, radio science, and physical and seismic characteristics. Also considered are the imaging system, the lander camera, entry science, and Mars weather.

GEOS Atmospheric Model: Challenges at Exascale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William M.; Suarez, Max J.

2017-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is used to simulate the multi-scale variability of the Earth's weather and climate, and is used primarily to assimilate conventional and satellite-based observations for weather forecasting and reanalysis. In addition, assimilations coupled to an ocean model are used for longer-term forecasting (e.g., El Nino) on seasonal to interannual times-scales. The GMAO's research activities, including system development, focus on numerous time and space scales, as detailed on the GMAO website, where they are tabbed under five major themes: Weather Analysis and Prediction; Seasonal-Decadal Analysis and Prediction; Reanalysis; Global Mesoscale Modeling, and Observing System Science. A brief description of the GEOS systems can also be found at the GMAO website. GEOS executes as a collection of earth system components connected through the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ESMF layer is supplemented with the MAPL (Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Layer) software toolkit developed at the GMAO, which facilitates the organization of the computational components into a hierarchical architecture. GEOS systems run in parallel using a horizontal decomposition of the Earth's sphere into processing elements (PEs). Communication between PEs is primarily through a message passing framework, using the message passing interface (MPI), and through explicit use of node-level shared memory access via the SHMEM (Symmetric Hierarchical Memory access) protocol. Production GEOS weather prediction systems currently run at 12.5-kilometer horizontal resolution with 72 vertical levels decomposed into PEs associated with 5,400 MPI processes. Research GEOS systems run at resolutions as fine as 1.5 kilometers globally using as many as 30,000 MPI processes. Looking forward, these systems can be expected to see a 2 times increase in horizontal resolution every two to three years, as well as less frequent increases in vertical resolution. Coupling these resolution changes with increases in complexity, the computational demands on the GEOS production and research systems should easily increase 100-fold over the next five years. Currently, our 12.5 kilometer weather prediction system narrowly meets the time-to-solution demands of a near-real-time production system. Work is now in progress to take advantage of a hybrid MPI-OpenMP parallelism strategy, in an attempt to achieve a modest two-fold speed-up to accommodate an immediate demand due to increased scientific complexity and an increase in vertical resolution. Pursuing demands that require a 10- to 100-fold increases or more, however, would require a detailed exploration of the computational profile of GEOS, as well as targeted solutions using more advanced high-performance computing technologies. Increased computing demands of 100-fold will be required within five years based on anticipated changes in the GEOS production systems, increases of 1000-fold can be anticipated over the next ten years.

Proceedings of the 6th annual Speakeasy conference. [Chicago, August 17-18, 1978

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1978-01-01

This meeting on the Speakeasy programming language and its applications included papers on the following subjects: graphics (graphics under Speakeasy, Speakeasy on a mini, color graphics), time series (OASIS - a user-oriented system at USDA, writing input-burdened linkules), applications (weather and crop yield analysis system, property investment analysis system), data bases under Speakeasy (relational data base, applications of relational data bases), survey analysis (survey analysis package from Liege, sic and its future under Speakeasy), and new features in Speakeasy (partial differential equations, the Speakeasy compiler and optimization). (RWR)

Severe weather detection by using Japanese Total Lightning Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobara, Yasuhide; Ishii, Hayato; Kumagai, Yuri; Liu, Charlie; Heckman, Stan; Price, Colin

2015-04-01

In this paper we demonstrate the preliminary results from the first Japanese Total Lightning Network. The University of Electro-Communications (UEC) recently deployed Earth Networks Total Lightning System over Japan to conduct various lightning research projects. Here we analyzed the total lightning data in relation with 10 severe events such as gust fronts and tornadoes occurred in 2014 in mainland Japan. For the analysis of these events, lightning jump algorithm was used to identify the increase of the flash rate in prior to the severe weather events. We found that lightning jumps associated with significant increasing lightning activities for total lightning and IC clearly indicate the severe weather occurrence than those for CGs.

ESA SSA Programme in support of Space Weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luntama, J.; Glover, A.; Hilgers, A. M.

2010-12-01

In 2009 European Space Agency (ESA) started a new programme called Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The SSA Preparatory Program will establish the initial elements that will eventually lead into the full deployment of the European SSA services. The SWE Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010 will include a selected subset of these services based on pre-existing space weather applications and services in Europe. This paper will present the key characteristics of the SSA SWE system that is currently being designed. The presentation will focus on the system characteristics that support space weather forecasting and the related services. The presentation will show results from the analysis of the existing European assets and the identified development needs in the mid and long term future to ensure forecasting capability for the services requested the by SSA SWE users. The analysis covers the future SSA SWE space segment and the service development needs for the ground segment.

An Automated Solar Synoptic Analysis Software System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, S.; Lee, S.; Oh, S.; Kim, J.; Lee, J.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Moon, Y.; Lee, D.

2012-12-01

We have developed an automated software system of identifying solar active regions, filament channels, and coronal holes, those are three major solar sources causing the space weather. Space weather forecasters of NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center produce the solar synoptic drawings as a daily basis to predict solar activities, i.e., solar flares, filament eruptions, high speed solar wind streams, and co-rotating interaction regions as well as their possible effects to the Earth. As an attempt to emulate this process with a fully automated and consistent way, we developed a software system named ASSA(Automated Solar Synoptic Analysis). When identifying solar active regions, ASSA uses high-resolution SDO HMI intensitygram and magnetogram as inputs and providing McIntosh classification and Mt. Wilson magnetic classification of each active region by applying appropriate image processing techniques such as thresholding, morphology extraction, and region growing. At the same time, it also extracts morphological and physical properties of active regions in a quantitative way for the short-term prediction of flares and CMEs. When identifying filament channels and coronal holes, images of global H-alpha network and SDO AIA 193 are used for morphological identification and also SDO HMI magnetograms for quantitative verification. The output results of ASSA are routinely checked and validated against NOAA's daily SRS(Solar Region Summary) and UCOHO(URSIgram code for coronal hole information). A couple of preliminary scientific results are to be presented using available output results. ASSA will be deployed at the Korean Space Weather Center and serve its customers in an operational status by the end of 2012.

Heavy rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks: the Walkerton example.

PubMed

Auld, Heather; MacIver, D; Klaassen, J

Recent research indicates that excessive rainfall has been a significant contributor to historical waterborne disease outbreaks. The Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, provided an analysis and testimony to the Walkerton Inquiry on the excessive rainfall events, including an assessment of the historical significance and expected return periods of the rainfall amounts. While the onset of the majority of the Walkerton, Ontario, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter outbreak occurred several days after a heavy rainfall on May 12, the accumulated 5-d rainfall amounts from 8-12 May were particularly significant. These 5-d accumulations could, on average, only be expected once every 60 yr or more in Walkerton and once every 100 yr or so in the heaviest rainfall area to the south of Walkerton. The significant link between excess rainfall and waterborne disease outbreaks, in conjunction with other multiple risk factors, indicates that meteorological and climatological conditions need to be considered by water managers, public health officials, and private citizens as a significant risk factor for water contamination. A system to identify and project the impacts of such challenging or extreme weather conditions on water supply systems could be developed using a combination of weather/climate monitoring information and weather prediction or quantitative precipitation forecast information. The use of weather monitoring and forecast information or a "wellhead alert system" could alert water system and water supply managers on the potential response of their systems to challenging weather conditions and additional requirements to protect health. Similar approaches have recently been used by beach managers in parts of the United States to predict day-to-day water quality for beach advisories.

14 CFR 27.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems with features conducive to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 27.961...

14 CFR 27.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems with features conducive to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 27.961...

14 CFR 29.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 29.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems conducive to vapor... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 29.961...

14 CFR 27.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems with features conducive to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 27.961...

14 CFR 27.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems with features conducive to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 27.961...

14 CFR 29.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 29.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems conducive to vapor... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 29.961...

14 CFR 27.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 27.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems with features conducive to... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 27.961...

14 CFR 29.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 29.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems conducive to vapor... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 29.961...

14 CFR 29.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 29.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems conducive to vapor... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 29.961...

14 CFR 29.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Powerplant Fuel System § 29.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each suction lift fuel system and other fuel systems conducive to vapor... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 29.961...

Monitoring and Modeling Astronaut Occupational Radiation Exposures in Space: Recent Advances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weyland, Mark; Golightly, Michael

1999-01-01

In 1982 astronauts were declared to be radiation workers by OSHA, and as such were subject to the rules and regulations applied to that group. NASA was already aware that space radiation was a hazard to crewmembers and had been studying and monitoring astronaut doses since 1962 at the Johnson Space Center. It was quickly realized NASA would not be able to accomplish all of its goals if the astronauts were subject to the ground based radiation worker limits, and thus received a waiver from OSHA to establish independent limits. As part of the stipulation attached to setting new limits, OSHA included a requirement to perform preflight dose projections for each crew and inform them of the associated risks. Additional requirements included measuring doses from various sources during the flight, making every effort to prevent a crewmember from exceeding the new limits, and keeping all exposures As Low As Reasonably Achievable (a.k.a. ALARA - a common health physics principle). The assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) and its initial manned operations will coincide with the 4-5 year period of high space weather activity at the next maximum in the solar cycle. For the first time in NASA's manned program, US astronauts will be in orbit continuously throughout a solar maximum period. During this period, crews are at risk of significantly increased radiation exposures due to solar particle events and trapped electron belt enhancements following geomagnetic storms. The problem of protecting crews is compounded by the difficulty of providing continuous real-time monitoring over a period of a decade in an era of tightly constrained budgets. In order to prepare for ISS radiological support needs, the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group and the NOAA Space Environment Center have undertaken a multiyear effort to improve and automate ground-based space weather monitoring systems and real-time radiation analysis tools. These improvements include a coupled, automated space weather monitoring and alarm system--SPE exposure analysis system, an advanced space weather data distribution and display system, and a high-fidelity space weather simulation system. In addition, significant new real-time space weather data sets, which will enhance the forecasting and now-casting of near-Earth space environment conditions, are being made available through unique NASA-NOAA-USAF collaborations. These new data sets include coronal mass ejection monitoring by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and in-situ plasma and particle monitoring at the L1 libration point by the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Advanced real-time radiation monitoring data from charged particle telescopes and tissue equivalent proportional counters will also be available to assist crew and flight controllers in monitoring the external and intravehicular radiation environment.

Implementation guidelines for road weather information systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-11-01

The report presents guidelines for implementing road weather information systems (RWIS). These guidelines will assist highway agency personnel with the planning, installation, and maintenance of road weather information systems for either ice or high...

Using Artificial Intelligence to Inform Pilots of Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

2006-01-01

An automated system to assist a General Aviation (GA) pilot in improving situational awareness of weather in flight is now undergoing development. This development is prompted by the observation that most fatal GA accidents are attributable to loss of weather awareness. Loss of weather awareness, in turn, has been attributed to the difficulty of interpreting traditional preflight weather briefings and the difficulty of both obtaining and interpreting traditional in-flight weather briefings. The developmental automated system not only improves weather awareness but also substantially reduces the time a pilot must spend in acquiring and maintaining weather awareness.

Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: 2. Data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedetti, A.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Boucher, O.; Dethof, A.; Engelen, R. J.; Fisher, M.; Flentje, H.; Huneeus, N.; Jones, L.; Kaiser, J. W.; Kinne, S.; Mangold, A.; Razinger, M.; Simmons, A. J.; Suttie, M.

2009-07-01

This study presents the new aerosol assimilation system, developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for the Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data (GEMS) project. The aerosol modeling and analysis system is fully integrated in the operational four-dimensional assimilation apparatus. Its purpose is to produce aerosol forecasts and reanalyses of aerosol fields using optical depth data from satellite sensors. This paper is the second of a series which describes the GEMS aerosol effort. It focuses on the theoretical architecture and practical implementation of the aerosol assimilation system. It also provides a discussion of the background errors and observations errors for the aerosol fields, and presents a subset of results from the 2-year reanalysis which has been run for 2003 and 2004 using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on the Aqua and Terra satellites. Independent data sets are used to show that despite some compromises that have been made for feasibility reasons in regards to the choice of control variable and error characteristics, the analysis is very skillful in drawing to the observations and in improving the forecasts of aerosol optical depth.

Measuring weather for aviation safety in the 1980's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wedan, R. W.

1980-01-01

Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, M.; Maddox, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Macneice, P.; Taktakishvili, A.; Berrios, D.; Chulaki, A.; Zheng, Y.;

Collaboration Between Government and Commercial Space Weather Information Providers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, Devrie

2007-10-01

Many systems and situations require up-to-date space weather information. These include navigation systems in cars, boats, and commercial freight; the specific location information needed for construction and oil drilling; communications; airline navigation; avionic systems; and passengers and personnel on polar airline flights. Thus, as the world's industries become increasingly more reliant on satellite data and more vulnerable to space weather conditions, new collaborations will have to be formed between commercial providers of space weather information and the government scientists who monitor space weather.

The Influence Analysis of the Rainfall Meteorological Conditions on the Operation of the Balloon Borne Radar in Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiong; Geng, Fangzhi

2018-03-01

Based on the characteristics of complex terrain and different seasons’ weather in Qinghai Tibet Plateau, through statistic the daily rainfall that from 2002 to 2012, nearly 11 years, by Bomi meteorological station, Bomi area rainfall forecast model is established, and which can provide the basis forecasting for dangerous weather warning system on the balloon borne radar in the next step, to protect the balloon borne radar equipment’s safety work and combat effectiveness.

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

2009-01-01

Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

2017-04-01

The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help to improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology, but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability and understanding of climate system feedbacks. Orth, R., E. Dutra, I. F. Trigo, and G. Balsamo (2016): Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-628

CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) Science: Progress thus far and the next steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallamraju, D.; Kozyra, J.; Basu, S.

Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System CAWSES is the current program of Scientific Committee for Solar Terrestrial Physics SCOSTEP for 2004 - 2008 The main aim of CAWSES is to bring together scientists from various nations to address the coupled and global nature of the Sun-Earth System phenomena Towards that end CAWSES provides a platform for international cooperation in observations data analysis theory and modeling There has been active international participation thus far with endorsement of the national CAWSES programs in some countries and many scientists around the globe actively volunteering their time in this effort The CAWSES Science Steering Group has organized the CAWSES program into five Themes for better execution of its science Solar Influence on Climate Space Weather Science and Applications Atmospheric Coupling Processes Space Climatology and Capacity Building and Education CAWSES will cooperate with International programs that focus on the Sun-Earth system science and at the same time compliment the work of programs whose scope is beyond the realm of CAWSES This talk will briefly review the science goals of CAWSES provide salient results from different Themes with emphasis on those from the Space Weather Theme This talk will also indicate the next steps that are being planned in this program and solicit inputs from the community for the science efforts to be carried out in the future

Analysis of biases from parallel observations of co-located manual and automatic weather stations in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Fajariana, Yuaning; Satyaningsih, Ratna; Aprilina, Kharisma; Astuti Nuraini, Tri; Ummiyatul Badriyah, Imelda; Lukita Sari, Dyah; Haryoko, Urip

2017-04-01

Inhomogeneities are often found in long records of climate data. These can occur because of various reasons, among others such as relocation of observation site, changes in observation method, and the transition to automated instruments. Changes to these automated systems are inevitable, and it is taking place worldwide in many of the National Meteorological Services. However this shift of observational practice must be done cautiously and a sufficient period of parallel observation of co-located manual and automated systems should take place as suggested by the World Meteorological Organization. With a sufficient parallel observation period, biases between the two systems can be analyzed. In this study we analyze the biases of a yearlong parallel observation of manual and automatic weather stations in 30 locations in Indonesia. The location of the sites spans from east to west of approximately 45 longitudinal degrees covering different climate characteristics and geographical settings. We study measurements taken by both sensors for temperature and rainfall parameters. We found that the biases from both systems vary from place to place and are more dependent to the setting of the instrument rather than to the climatic and geographical factors. For instance, daytime observations of the automatic weather stations are found to be consistently higher than the manual observation, and vice versa night time observations of the automatic weather stations are lower than the manual observation.

14 CFR 23.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 23.961... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 23.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each fuel system must be free from vapor lock...

14 CFR 23.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 23.961... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 23.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each fuel system must be free from vapor lock...

14 CFR 23.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 23.961... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 23.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each fuel system must be free from vapor lock...

14 CFR 23.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 23.961... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 23.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each fuel system must be free from vapor lock...

14 CFR 23.961 - Fuel system hot weather operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fuel system hot weather operation. 23.961... AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Powerplant Fuel System § 23.961 Fuel system hot weather operation. Each fuel system must be free from vapor lock...

On the forecasting the unfavorable periods in the technosphere by the space weather factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyakhov, N. N.

2002-12-01

There is the considerable progress in development of geomagnetic disturbances forecast technique, in the necessary time, by solar activity phenomena last years. The possible relationship between violations of the traffic safety terms (VTS) in East Siberian Railway during 1986-1999 and the space weather factors was investigated. The overall number of cases under consideration is equal to 11575. By methods of correlation and spectral analysis it was shown, that statistics of VTS has not a random and it's character is probably caused by space weather factors. The principal difference between rhythmic of VTS by purely technical reasons (MECH) (failures in mechanical systems) and, that of VTS caused by wrong operations of a personnel (MAN), is noted. Increase of sudden storm commencements number results in increase of probability of mistakable actions of an operator. Probability of violations in mechanical systems increases with increase of number of quiet geomagnetic conditions. This, in its turn, dictate different approach to the ordered rows of MECH and MAN data when forecasting the unfavourable periods as the priods of increased risk in working out a wrong decision by technological process participants. The advances in forecasting of geomagnetic environment technique made possible to start construction of systems of the operative informing about unfavourable factors of space weather for the interested organizations.

Meteorite Fall Detection and Analysis via Weather Radar: Worldwide Potential for Citizen Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, M.; Bresky, C.; Laird, C.; Reddy, V.; Hankey, M.

2017-12-01

Meteorite falls can be detected using weather radars, facilitating rapid recovery of meteorites to minimize terrestrial alteration. Imagery from the US NEXRAD radar network reveals over two dozen meteorite falls where meteorites have been recovered, and about another dozen that remain unrecovered. Discovery of new meteorite falls is well suited to "citizen science" and similar outreach activities, as well as automation of computational components into internet-based search tools. Also, there are many more weather radars employed worldwide than those in the US NEXRAD system. Utilization of weather radars worldwide for meteorite recovery can not only expand citizen science opportunities but can also lead to significant improvement in the number of freshly-fallen meteorites available for research. We will discuss the methodologies behind locating and analyzing meteorite falls using weather radar, and how to make them available for citizen science efforts. An important example is the Aquarius Project, a Chicago-area consortium recently formed with the goal of recovering meteorites from Lake Michigan. This project has extensive student involvement geared toward development of actual hardware for recovering meteorites from the lake floor. Those meteorites were identified in weather radar imagery as they fell into the lake from a large meteor on 06 Feb 2017. Another example of public interaction is the meteor detection systems operated by the American Meteor Society (AMS). The AMS website has been developed to allow public reporting of meteors, effectively enabling citizen science to locate and describe significant meteor events worldwide.

Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horel, J.; Potter, T.; Dunn, L.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Eubank, M.; Splitt, M.; Onton, D. J.

2002-02-01

The 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be hosted by Salt Lake City, Utah, during February-March 2002. Adverse weather during this period may delay sporting events, while snow and ice-covered streets and highways may impede access by the athletes and spectators to the venues. While winter snowstorms and other large-scale weather systems typically have widespread impacts throughout northern Utah, hazardous winter weather is often related to local terrain features (the Wasatch Mountains and Great Salt Lake are the most prominent ones). Examples of such hazardous weather include lake-effect snowstorms, ice fog, gap winds, downslope windstorms, and low visibility over mountain passes.A weather support system has been developed to provide weather information to the athletes, games officials, spectators, and the interested public around the world. This system is managed by the Salt Lake Olympic Committee and relies upon meteorologists from the public, private, and academic sectors of the atmospheric science community. Weather forecasting duties will be led by National Weather Service forecasters and a team of private, weather forecasters organized by KSL, the Salt Lake City NBC television affiliate. Other government agencies, commercial firms, and the University of Utah are providing specialized forecasts and support services for the Olympics. The weather support system developed for the 2002 Winter Olympics is expected to provide long-term benefits to the public through improved understanding,monitoring, and prediction of winter weather in the Intermountain West.

Evaluation of a Dispatcher's Route Optimization Decision Aid to Avoid Aviation Weather Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorneich, Michael C.; Olofinboba, Olu; Pratt, Steve; Osborne, Dannielle; Feyereisen, Thea; Latorella, Kara

2003-01-01

This document describes the results and analysis of the formal evaluation plan for the Honeywell software tool developed under the NASA AWIN (Aviation Weather Information) 'Weather Avoidance using Route Optimization as a Decision Aid' project. The software tool aims to provide airline dispatchers with a decision aid for selecting optimal routes that avoid weather and other hazards. This evaluation compares and contrasts route selection performance with the AWIN tool to that of subjects using a more traditional dispatcher environment. The evaluation assesses gains in safety, in fuel efficiency of planned routes, and in time efficiency in the pre-flight dispatch process through the use of the AWIN decision aid. In addition, we are interested in how this AWIN tool affects constructs that can be related to performance. The construct of Situation Awareness (SA), workload, trust in an information system, and operator acceptance are assessed using established scales, where these exist, as well as through the evaluation of questionnaire responses and subject comments. The intention of the experiment is to set up a simulated operations area for the dispatchers to work in. They will be given scenarios in which they are presented with stored company routes for a particular city-pair and aircraft type. A diverse set of external weather information sources is represented by a stand-alone display (MOCK), containing the actual historical weather data typically used by dispatchers. There is also the possibility of presenting selected weather data on the route visualization tool. The company routes have not been modified to avoid the weather except in the case of one additional route generated by the Honeywell prototype flight planning system. The dispatcher will be required to choose the most appropriate and efficient flight plan route in the displayed weather conditions. The route may be modified manually or may be chosen from those automatically displayed.

Carrier mounted bacterial consortium facilitates oil remediation in the marine environment.

PubMed

Simons, Keryn L; Sheppard, Petra J; Adetutu, Eric M; Kadali, Krishna; Juhasz, Albert L; Manefield, Mike; Sarma, Priyangshu M; Lal, Banwari; Ball, Andrew S

2013-04-01

Marine oil pollution can result in the persistent presence of weathered oil. Currently, removal of weathered oil is reliant on chemical dispersants and physical removal, causing further disruption. In contrast few studies have examined the potential of an environmentally sustainable method using a hydrocarbon degrading microbial community attached to a carrier. Here, we used a tank mesocosm system (50 l) to follow the degradation of weathered oil (10 g l(-1)) using a bacterial consortium mobilised onto different carrier materials (alginate or shell grit). GCMS analysis demonstrated that the extent of hydrocarbon degradation was dependent upon the carrier material. Augmentation of shell grit with nutrients and exogenous hydrocarbon degraders resulted in 75±14% removal of >C32 hydrocarbons after 12 weeks compared to 20±14% for the alginate carrier. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of a biostimulated and bioaugmented carrier material to degrade marine weathered oil. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

15 CFR 946.5 - Change in operations-commissioning and decommissioning.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.5 Change in operations—commissioning and decommissioning. (a) Before commissioning any new NEXRAD or ASOS weather observation system...; technical coordination with weather service users has been completed; and the system satisfactorily supports...

15 CFR 946.5 - Change in operations-commissioning and decommissioning.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.5 Change in operations—commissioning and decommissioning. (a) Before commissioning any new NEXRAD or ASOS weather observation system...; technical coordination with weather service users has been completed; and the system satisfactorily supports...

15 CFR 946.5 - Change in operations-commissioning and decommissioning.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.5 Change in operations—commissioning and decommissioning. (a) Before commissioning any new NEXRAD or ASOS weather observation system...; technical coordination with weather service users has been completed; and the system satisfactorily supports...

15 CFR 946.5 - Change in operations-commissioning and decommissioning.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.5 Change in operations—commissioning and decommissioning. (a) Before commissioning any new NEXRAD or ASOS weather observation system...; technical coordination with weather service users has been completed; and the system satisfactorily supports...

15 CFR 946.5 - Change in operations-commissioning and decommissioning.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.5 Change in operations—commissioning and decommissioning. (a) Before commissioning any new NEXRAD or ASOS weather observation system...; technical coordination with weather service users has been completed; and the system satisfactorily supports...

OS Aviation Information

Science.gov Websites

Aviation Weather Program is to couple the art and science of meteorology to enhance the safe and efficient significant weather forecasts crossing international boundaries. Keeping Our National Airspace System Safe The System Newsletter Aviation Weather Center (AWC) Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) Space Environment

Air traffic management evaluation tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil S. (Inventor); Sridhar, Banavar (Inventor); Bilimoria, Karl D. (Inventor); Grabbe, Shon (Inventor); Chatterji, Gano Broto (Inventor); Schipper, John F. (Inventor)

2010-01-01

Method and system for evaluating and implementing air traffic management tools and approaches for managing and avoiding an air traffic incident before the incident occurs. The invention provides flight plan routing and direct routing or wind optimal routing, using great circle navigation and spherical Earth geometry. The invention provides for aircraft dynamics effects, such as wind effects at each altitude, altitude changes, airspeed changes and aircraft turns to provide predictions of aircraft trajectory (and, optionally, aircraft fuel use). A second system provides several aviation applications using the first system. These applications include conflict detection and resolution, miles-in trail or minutes-in-trail aircraft separation, flight arrival management, flight re-routing, weather prediction and analysis and interpolation of weather variables based upon sparse measurements.

Assimilation of radar quantitative precipitation estimations in the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortin, Vincent; Roy, Guy; Donaldson, Norman; Mahidjiba, Ahmed

2015-12-01

The Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) is a data analysis system used operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) since April 2011 to produce gridded 6-h and 24-h precipitation accumulations in near real-time on a regular grid covering all of North America. The current resolution of the product is 10-km. Due to the low density of the observational network in most of Canada, the system relies on a background field provided by the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) of Environment Canada, which is a short-term weather forecasting system for North America. For this reason, the North American configuration of CaPA is known as the Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (RDPA). Early in the development of the CaPA system, weather radar reflectivity was identified as a very promising additional data source for the precipitation analysis, but necessary quality control procedures and bias-correction algorithms were lacking for the radar data. After three years of development and testing, a new version of CaPA-RDPA system was implemented in November 2014 at CMC. This version is able to assimilate radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from all 31 operational Canadian weather radars. The radar QPE is used as an observation source and not as a background field, and is subject to a strict quality control procedure, like any other observation source. The November 2014 upgrade to CaPA-RDPA was implemented at the same time as an upgrade to the RDPS system, which brought minor changes to the skill and bias of CaPA-RDPA. This paper uses the frequency bias indicator (FBI), the equitable threat score (ETS) and the departure from the partial mean (DPM) in order to assess the improvements to CaPA-RDPA brought by the assimilation of radar QPE. Verification focuses on the 6-h accumulations, and is done against a network of 65 synoptic stations (approximately two stations per radar) that were withheld from the station data assimilated by CaPA-RDPA. It is shown that the ETS and the DPM scores are both improved for precipitation events between 0.2 mm and 25 mm per 6-h, and that the FBI is unchanged.

Understanding the roles of ligand promoted dissolution, water column saturation and hydrological properties on intense basalt weathering using reactive transport and watershed-scale hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez Fodich, A.; Walter, M. T.; Derry, L. A.

2016-12-01

The interaction of rocks with rainwater generates physical and chemical changes, which ultimately culminates in soil development. The addition of catalyzers such as plants, atmospheric gases and hydrological properties will result in more intense and/or faster weathering transformations. The intensity of weathering across the Island of Hawaii is strongly correlated with exposure age and time-integrated precipitation. Intense weathering has resulted from interaction between a thermodynamically unstable lithology, high water/rock ratios, atmospheric gases (O2, CO2) and biota as an organic acid and CO2 producer. To further investigate the role of different weathering agents we have developed 1-D reactive transport models (RTM) to understand mineralogical and fluid chemistry changes in the initially basaltic porous media. The initial meso-scale heterogeneity of porosity makes it difficult for RTMs to capture changes in runoff/groundwater partitioning. Therefore, hydraulic properties (hydraulic conductivity and aquifer depth) are modeled as a watershed parameter appropriate for this system where sub-surface hydraulic data is scarce(1). Initial results agree with field data in a broad sense: different rainfall regimes and timescales show depletion of mobile cations, increasingly low pH, congruent dissolution of olivine and pyroxene, incongruent dissolution of plagioclase and basaltic glass, precipitation of non-crystalline allophane and ferrihydrite, and porosity changes due to dissolution and precipitation of minerals; ultimately Al and Fe are also exported from the system. RTM is used to examine the roles of unsaturation in the soil profile, ligand promoted dissolution of Al- and Fe-bearing phases, and Fe-oxide precipitation at the outcrop scale. Also, we aim to test the use of recession flow analysis to model watershed-scale hydrological properties to extrapolate changes in the runoff/groundwater partitioning. The coupling between weathering processes and hydrologic properties is a fundamental driver of the evolution of volcanic landscapes and weathering fluxes. 1. G. F. Mendoza, T. S. Steenhuis, M. T. Walter, J. Y. Parlange, Estimating basin-wide hydraulic parameters of a semi-arid mountainous watershed by recession-flow analysis. Journal of Hydrology 279, 57-69 (2003).

Marrying Step Feed with Secondary Clarifier Improvements to Significantly Increase Peak Wet Weather Treatment Capacity: An Integrated Methodology.

PubMed

Daigger, Glen T; Siczka, John S; Smith, Thomas F; Frank, David A; McCorquodale, J A

2017-08-01

  The need to increase the peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity of the City of Akron, Ohio, Water Reclamation Facility (WRF) provided the opportunity to test an integrated methodology for maximizing the peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity of activated sludge systems. An initial investigation, consisting of process modeling of the secondary treatment system and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the existing relatively shallow secondary clarifiers (3.3 and 3.7 m sidewater depth in 30.5 m diameter units), indicated that a significant increase in capacity from 416 000 to 684 000 m3/d or more was possible by adding step feed capabilities to the existing bioreactors and upgrading the existing secondary clarifiers. One of the six treatment units at the WRF was modified, and an extensive 2-year testing program was conducted to determine the total peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity achievable. The results demonstrated that a peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity approaching 974 000 m3/d is possible as long as secondary clarifier solids and hydraulic loadings could be separately controlled using the step feed capability provided. Excellent sludge settling characteristics are routinely experienced at the City of Akron WRF, raising concerns that the identified peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity could not be maintained should sludge settling characteristics deteriorate for some reason. Computational fluid dynamics analysis indicated that the impact of the deterioration of sludge settling characteristics could be mitigated and the identified peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity maintained by further use of the step feed capability provided to further reduce secondary clarifier solids loading rates at the identified high surface overflow rates. The results also demonstrated that effluent limits not only for total suspended solids (TSS) and five-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (cBOD5) could be maintained, but also for ammonia-nitrogen and total phosphorous (TP). Although hydraulic limitations in other parts of the WRP prevent this full capacity to be realized, the City is proceeding to implement the modifications identified using this integrated methodology.

The New Space Weather Action Center; the Next Level on Space Weather Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Lewis, E. M.; Cline, T. D.; MacDonald, E.

2016-12-01

The Space Weather Action Center (SWAC) provides access for students to near real-time space weather data, and a set of easy instructions and well-defined protocols that allow them to correctly interpret such data. It is a student centered approach to teaching science and technology in classrooms, as students are encouraged to act like real scientists by accessing, collecting, analyzing, recording, and communicating space weather forecasts. Integration and implementation of several programs will enhance and provide a rich education experience for students' grades 5-16. We will enhance the existing data and tutorials available using the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) tool created by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA GSFC. iSWA is a flexible, turn-key, customer-configurable, Web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines data based on the most advanced space weather models available through the CCMC with concurrent space environment information. This tool provides an additional component by the use of videos and still imagery from different sources as a tool for educators to effectively show what happens during an eruption from the surface of the Sun. We will also update content on the net result of space weather forecasting that the public can experience by including Aurorasaurus, a well established, growing, modern, innovative, interdisciplinary citizen science project centered around the public's visibility of the northern lights with mobile applications via the use of social media connections.

INNOVATIVE URBAN WET-WEATHER FLOW MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes innovative methods to improve wet weather flow (WWF) management systems, that provide drainage services at the same time as decreasing stormwater pollutant discharges, for urban developments of the 21st century. Traditionally, wet-weather collection systems...

Characteristics of Operational Space Weather Forecasting: Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas; Viereck, Rodney; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terry; Biesecker, Doug; Rutledge, Robert; Hill, Steven; Akmaev, Rashid; Milward, George; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

2015-04-01

In contrast to research observations, models and ground support systems, operational systems are characterized by real-time data streams and run schedules, with redundant backup systems for most elements of the system. We review the characteristics of operational space weather forecasting, concentrating on the key aspects of ground- and space-based observations that feed models of the coupled Sun-Earth system at the NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Building on the infrastructure of the National Weather Service, SWPC is working toward a fully operational system based on the GOES weather satellite system (constant real-time operation with back-up satellites), the newly launched DSCOVR satellite at L1 (constant real-time data network with AFSCN backup), and operational models of the heliosphere, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere/mesophere systems run on the Weather and Climate Operational Super-computing System (WCOSS), one of the worlds largest and fastest operational computer systems that will be upgraded to a dual 2.5 Pflop system in 2016. We review plans for further operational space weather observing platforms being developed in the context of the Space Weather Operations Research and Mitigation (SWORM) task force in the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) at the White House. We also review the current operational model developments at SWPC, concentrating on the differences between the research codes and the modified real-time versions that must run with zero fault tolerance on the WCOSS systems. Understanding the characteristics and needs of the operational forecasting community is key to producing research into the coupled Sun-Earth system with maximal societal benefit.

Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements minus seasonal trends).more » The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system con guration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. As a result, requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated.« less

Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

DOE PAGES

Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

2016-11-25

Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements minus seasonal trends).more » The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system con guration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. As a result, requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated.« less

Towards the Operational Ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Wave Field at the National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flampouris, Stylianos; Penny, Steve; Alves, Henrique

2017-04-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational wave forecast for the US National Weather Service (NWS). Given the continuous efforts to improve forecast, NCEP is developing an ensemble-based data assimilation system, based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), the existing operational global wave ensemble system (GWES) and on satellite and in-situ observations. While the LETKF was designed for atmospheric applications (Hunt et al 2007), and has been adapted for several ocean models (e.g. Penny 2016), this is the first time applied for oceanic waves assimilation. This new wave assimilation system provides a global estimation of the surface sea state and its approximate uncertainty. It achieves this by analyzing the 21-member ensemble of the significant wave height provided by GWES every 6h. Observations from four altimeters and all the available in-situ measurements are used in this analysis. The analysis of the significant wave height is used for initializing the next forecasting cycle; the data assimilation system is currently being tested for operational use.

Road Weather Systems [SD .WMV (720x480/29fps/25.2 MB)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

Iowas road weather information system at work. The Iowa DOT will install new sensors and upgrades to most road weather information system (RWIS) sites. These include: : color cameras, new precipitation sensors, new speed sensors, revised weathervi...

Glossary of AWS Acrinabs. Acronyms, Initialisms, and Abbreviations Commonly Used in Air Weather Service

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

Foundation FYDP ......... Five Year Defense Plan FSI ............ Fog Stability Index 17 G G ................ gravity, giga- GISM ......... Gridded ...Global Circulation Model GOES-TAP GOES imagery processing & dissemination system GCS .......... grid course GOFS ........ Global Ocean Flux Study GD...Analysis Support System Complex Systems GRID .......... Global Resource Information Data -Base GEMAG ..... geomagnetic GRIST..... grazing-incidence solar

238U-Series in Fe Oxy/Hydroxides by LA-MC-ICP-MS, New Insights Into Weathering Geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernal, J.; McCulloch, M.; Eggins, S.; Grun, R.; Eggleton, R.

2003-12-01

The establishment of a geochronological framework for weathering processes is essential for an understanding of the evolution of the regolith and its dynamics. However, there are few robust answers regarding the absolute age of weathering and its rates. Nowadays, 40Ar/39Ar analysis of Mn-Oxides (cryptomelane) and K-bearing secondary sulphates have provided one of the few generally reliable chronometers (e.g. 1), but is restricted to high-K secondary phases. This work presents a different approach to obtain geochronological information from weathering minerals, namely measurement of 238U-series disequilibria in authigenic Fe oxy/hydroxides. These may be potentially useful recorders of weathering processes as they commonly occur as weathering products and have high affinity towards dissolved uranyl complexes. Furthermore, U-Th fractionation during weathering has been extensively reported [2], effectively resetting the U/230Th geochronometer. LA-MC-ICP-MS facilitates in situ measurement of 238U-series disequilibria in authigenic microcrystalline iron oxy/hydroxides (precipitated between cracks and veins in partially and heavily weathered chlorite-muscovite schist) and pisoliths (ferruginous concretions). Contrary to previous studies [e.g. 3], in situ measurement of 238U-nuclides enables selective analysis or iron oxy/hydroxides phases, minimizes contributions from allogenic phases and, reduces the need of mathematical corrections to obtain the activity ratios for the authigenic phase [4, 5]. The results suggest that supergene iron oxy/hydroxides are good recorders of weathering processes; they precipitate during the early stages of weathering, reflect the U-isotopic composition of the groundwater, appear to act as closed-systems in weathering conservative environments, and behave in a predictable fashion when subjected to intense weathering and leaching conditions. The 230Th-ages of the iron oxy/hydroxides indicate that the timing and intensity of weathering appears to be largely controlled by global climatic changes, suggesting that weathering rates have not been constant during the last 300 ka in Northern Australia. References: 1 P.M. Vasconcelos. Annual Review in Earth and Planetary Sciences 27(1), 183-229, (1999) 2 M. Ivanovich and R.S. Harmon, Uranium-series disequilibrium : applications to earth, marine, and environmental science, xxxiv, 910 pp., Oxford University Press, Oxford, (1992) 3 S.A. Short, R.T. Lowson, J. Ellis and D.M. Price. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 53, 1379-1389, (1989) 4 K.R. Ludwig and D.M. Titterington. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 58(22), 5031-5042, (1994) 5 Luo, S. and T. L. Ku. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 55(2): 555-564. (1991)

Improving the Canadian Precipitation Analysis Estimates through an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnezhadi, K.; Rasmussen, P. F.; Stadnyk, T.

2014-12-01

To gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall over the Churchill River basin, this study was undertaken. The research incorporates gridded precipitation data from the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system. CaPA has been developed by Environment Canada and provides near real-time precipitation estimates on a 10 km by 10 km grid over North America at a temporal resolution of 6 hours. The spatial fields are generated by combining forecasts from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with precipitation observations from the network of synoptic weather stations. CaPA's skill is highly influenced by the number of weather stations in the region of interest as well as by the quality of the observations. In an attempt to evaluate the performance of CaPA as a function of the density of the weather station network, a dual-stage design algorithm to simulate CaPA is proposed which incorporates generated weather fields. More specifically, we are adopting a controlled design algorithm which is generally known as Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The advantage of using the experiment is that one can define reference precipitation fields assumed to represent the true state of rainfall over the region of interest. In the first stage of the defined OSSE, a coupled stochastic model of precipitation and temperature gridded fields is calibrated and validated. The performance of the generator is then validated by comparing model statistics with observed statistics and by using the generated samples as input to the WATFLOOD™ hydrologic model. In the second stage of the experiment, in order to account for the systematic error of station observations and GEM fields, representative errors are to be added to the reference field using by-products of CaPA's variographic analysis. These by-products explain the variance of station observations and background errors.

CCMC: bringing space weather awareness to the next generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chulaki, A.; Muglach, K.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Mendoza, A. M. M.; Thompson, B. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Pembroke, A. D.

2017-12-01

Making space weather an element of core education is critical for the future of the young field of space weather. Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is an interagency partnership established to aid the transition of modern space science models into space weather forecasting while supporting space science research. Additionally, over the past ten years it has established itself as a global space science education resource supporting undergraduate and graduate education and research, and spreading space weather awareness worldwide. A unique combination of assets, capabilities and close ties to the scientific and educational communities enable our small group to serve as a hub for rising generations of young space scientists and engineers. CCMC offers a variety of educational tools and resources publicly available online and providing access to the largest collection of modern space science models developed by the international research community. CCMC has revolutionized the way these simulations are utilized in classrooms settings, student projects, and scientific labs. Every year, this online system serves hundreds of students, educators and researchers worldwide. Another major CCMC asset is an expert space weather prototyping team primarily serving NASA's interplanetary space weather needs. Capitalizing on its unique capabilities and experiences, the team also provides in-depth space weather training to hundreds of students and professionals. One training module offers undergraduates an opportunity to actively engage in real-time space weather monitoring, analysis, forecasting, tools development and research, eventually serving remotely as NASA space weather forecasters. In yet another project, CCMC is collaborating with Hayden Planetarium and Linkoping University on creating a visualization platform for planetariums (and classrooms) to provide simulations of dynamic processes in the large domain stretching from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere, for near real-time and historical space weather events.

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keitz, J. F.

1982-01-01

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

Introduction to the Space Weather Monitoring System at KASI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, J.; Choi, S.; Kim, Y.; Cho, K.; Bong, S.; Lee, J.; Kwak, Y.; Hwang, J.; Park, Y.; Hwang, E.

2014-05-01

We have developed the Space Weather Monitoring System (SWMS) at the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). Since 2007, the system has continuously evolved into a better system. The SWMS consists of several subsystems: applications which acquire and process observational data, servers which run the applications, data storage, and display facilities which show the space weather information. The applications collect solar and space weather data from domestic and oversea sites. The collected data are converted to other format and/or visualized in real time as graphs and illustrations. We manage 3 data acquisition and processing servers, a file service server, a web server, and 3 sets of storage systems. We have developed 30 applications for a variety of data, and the volume of data is about 5.5 GB per day. We provide our customers with space weather contents displayed at the Space Weather Monitoring Lab (SWML) using web services.

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasts from the Vermont Weather Analytics Center and Identification of Improvements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Optis, Michael; Scott, George N.; Draxl, Caroline

The goal of this analysis was to assess the wind power forecast accuracy of the Vermont Weather Analytics Center (VTWAC) forecast system and to identify potential improvements to the forecasts. Based on the analysis at Georgia Mountain, the following recommendations for improving forecast performance were made: 1. Resolve the significant negative forecast bias in February-March 2017 (50% underprediction on average) 2. Improve the ability of the forecast model to capture the strong diurnal cycle of wind power 3. Add ability for forecast model to assess internal wake loss, particularly at sites where strong diurnal shifts in wind direction are present.more » Data availability and quality limited the robustness of this forecast assessment. A more thorough analysis would be possible given a longer period of record for the data (at least one full year), detailed supervisory control and data acquisition data for each wind plant, and more detailed information on the forecast system input data and methodologies.« less

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, Mark; Boisvert, Ben; Escala, Diego

2009-01-01

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Quality assurance of weather data for agricultural system model input

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It is well known that crop production and hydrologic variation on watersheds is weather related. Rarely, however, is meteorological data quality checks reported for agricultural systems model research. We present quality assurance procedures for agricultural system model weather data input. Problems...

Integrating Clarus data in traffic signal system operation : a survivable real-time weather-responsive system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-11

This report presents a prototype of a secure, dependable, real-time weather-responsive traffic signal system. The prototype executes two tasks: 1) accesses weather information that provides near real-time atmospheric and pavement surface condition ob...

INVESTIGATION OF DRY-WEATHER POLLUTANT ENTRIES INTO STORM-DRAINAGE SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

This article describes the results of a series of research tasks to develop a procedure to investigate non-stormwater (dry-weather) entries into storm drainage systems. Dry-weather flows discharging from storm drainage systems can contribute significant pollutant loadings to rece...

Adverse weather conditions and fatal motor vehicle crashes in the United States, 1994-2012.

PubMed

Saha, Shubhayu; Schramm, Paul; Nolan, Amanda; Hess, Jeremy

2016-11-08

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury mortality. Adverse weather and road conditions have the potential to affect the likelihood of motor vehicle fatalities through several pathways. However, there remains a dearth of assessments associating adverse weather conditions to fatal crashes in the United States. We assessed trends in motor vehicle fatalities associated with adverse weather and present spatial variation in fatality rates by state. We analyzed the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) datasets from 1994 to 2012 produced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that contains reported weather information for each fatal crash. For each year, we estimated the fatal crashes that were associated with adverse weather conditions. We stratified these fatalities by months to examine seasonal patterns. We calculated state-specific rates using annual vehicle miles traveled data for all fatalities and for those related to adverse weather to examine spatial variations in fatality rates. To investigate the role of adverse weather as an independent risk factor for fatal crashes, we calculated odds ratios for known risk factors (e.g., alcohol and drug use, no restraint use, poor driving records, poor light conditions, highway driving) to be reported along with adverse weather. Total and adverse weather-related fatalities decreased over 1994-2012. Adverse weather-related fatalities constituted about 16 % of total fatalities on average over the study period. On average, 65 % of adverse weather-related fatalities happened between November and April, with rain/wet conditions more frequently reported than snow/icy conditions. The spatial distribution of fatalities associated with adverse weather by state was different than the distribution of total fatalities. Involvement of alcohol or drugs, no restraint use, and speeding were less likely to co-occur with fatalities during adverse weather conditions. While adverse weather is reported for a large number of motor vehicle fatalities for the US, the type of adverse weather and the rate of associated fatality vary geographically. These fatalities may be addressed and potentially prevented by modifying speed limits during inclement weather, improving road surfacing, ice and snow removal, and providing transit alternatives, but the impact of potential interventions requires further research.

Impact of assimilating GOES imager clear-sky radiance with a rapid refresh assimilation system for convection-permitting forecast over Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chun; Liu, Zhiquan; Gao, Feng; Childs, Peter P.; Min, Jinzhong

2017-05-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager data could provide a continuous image of the evolutionary pattern of severe weather phenomena with its high spatial and temporal resolution. The capability to assimilate the GOES imager radiances has been developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting model's data assimilation system. Compared to the benchmark experiment with no GOES imager data, the impact of assimilating GOES imager radiances on the analysis and forecast of convective process over Mexico in 7-10 March 2016 was assessed through analysis/forecast cycling experiments using rapid refresh assimilation system with hybrid-3DEnVar scheme. With GOES imager radiance assimilation, better analyses were obtained in terms of the humidity, temperature, and simulated water vapor channel brightness temperature distribution. Positive forecast impacts from assimilating GOES imager radiance were seen when verified against the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting observation, GOES imager observation, and Mexico station precipitation data.

Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive Atmospheric Analogues for Multivariate weather Predictions, Raynaud et al. 2016). The analysis is performed for solar, wind and run-of-the river energy sources taken individually. For NAO sensitive regions, results shown important deviations between power generation distributions obtained either for strongly positive or strongly negative NAO events. We also used the optimal VRE combination provided by the 100 % solution project (http://thesolutionsproject.org/). We then discuss over the 12 considered regions the vulnerability to NAO events for the energy mix suggested by the 100 % solution project. Reference: Raynaud, D., Hingray, B., Zin, I., Anquetin, S., Debionne, S., Vautard, R., 2016. Atmospheric analogues for physically consistent scenarios of surface weather in Europe and Maghreb. Int. J. Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4844

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Observing System Forecast Experiments at the DAO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, Robert

2001-01-01

Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, numerous experiments have been conducted in order to evaluate the impact of these and other data on atmospheric analysis and prediction. Such studies have included both OSE'S and OSSE's. The OSE's were conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. Such experiments have been performed for selected types of conventional data and for various satellite data sets as they became available. (See for example the 1989 ECMWF/EUMETSAT workshop proceedings on "The use of satellite data in operational numerical weather prediction" and the references contained therein.) The ODYSSEY were conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve Numerical Weather Prediction NWP and to plan for the Global Weather Experiment and more recently for EVANS (Atlas et al., 1985a; Arnold and Day, 1986; Hoffman et al., 1990). In addition, OSSE's have been run to evaluate trade-offs in the design of observing systems and observing networks (Atlas and Emmitt, 1991; Rohaly and Krishnamurti, 1993), and to test new methodology for data assimilation (Atlas and Bloom, 1989).

Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused,10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

PubMed

Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L; Britch, Seth C; Tucker, Compton J; Pak, Edwin W; Reynolds, Curt A; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J

2014-01-01

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

Preparing for Operational Use of High Priority Products from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) in Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandi, S.; Layns, A. L.; Goldberg, M.; Gambacorta, A.; Ling, Y.; Collard, A.; Grumbine, R. W.; Sapper, J.; Ignatov, A.; Yoe, J. G.

2017-12-01

This work describes end to end operational implementation of high priority products from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational polar-orbiting satellite constellation, to include Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and the Joint Polar Satellite System series initial satellite (JPSS-1), into numerical weather prediction and earth systems models. Development and evaluation needed for the initial implementations of VIIRS Environmental Data Records (EDR) for Sea Surface Temperature ingestion in the Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (RTG) and Polar Winds assimilated in the National Weather Service (NWS) Global Forecast System (GFS) is presented. These implementations ensure continuity of data in these models in the event of loss of legacy sensor data. Also discussed is accelerated operational implementation of Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Temperature Data Records (TDR) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Sensor Data Records, identified as Key Performance Parameters by the National Weather Service. Operational use of SNPP after 28 October, 2011 launch took more than one year due to the learning curve and development needed for full exploitation of new remote sensing capabilities. Today, ATMS and CrIS data positively impact weather forecast accuracy. For NOAA's JPSS initial satellite (JPSS-1), scheduled for launch in late 2017, we identify scope and timelines for pre-launch and post-launch activities needed to efficiently transition these capabilities into operations. As part of these alignment efforts, operational readiness for KPPs will be possible as soon as 90 days after launch. The schedule acceleration is possible because of the experience with S-NPP. NOAA operational polar-orbiting satellite constellation provides continuity and enhancement of earth systems observations out to 2036. Program best practices and lessons learned will inform future implementation for follow-on JPSS-3 and -4 missions ensuring benefits and enhancements during the system's design life.

Development of thunderstorm monitoring technologies and algorithms by integration of radar, sensors, and satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adzhieva, Aida A.; Shapovalov, Vitaliy A.; Boldyreff, Anton S.

2017-10-01

In the context of rising the frequency of natural disasters and catastrophes humanity has to develop methods and tools to ensure safe living conditions. Effectiveness of preventive measures greatly depends on quality and lead time of the forecast of disastrous natural phenomena, which is based on the amount of knowledge about natural hazards, their causes, manifestations, and impact. To prevent them it is necessary to get complete and comprehensive information about the extent of spread and severity of natural processes that can act within a defined territory. For these purposes the High Mountain Geophysical Institute developed the automated workplace for mining, analysis and archiving of radar, satellite, lightning sensors information and terrestrial (automatic weather station) weather data. The combination and aggregation of data from different sources of meteorological data provides a more informativity of the system. Satellite data shows the global cloud region in visible and infrared ranges, but have an uncertainty in terms of weather events and large time interval between the two periods of measurements, which complicates the use of this information for very short range forecasts of weather phenomena. Radar and lightning sensors data provide the detection of weather phenomena and their localization on the background of the global pattern of cloudiness in the region and have a low period measurement of atmospheric phenomena (hail, thunderstorms, showers, squalls, tornadoes). The authors have developed the improved algorithms for recognition of dangerous weather phenomena, based on the complex analysis of incoming information using the mathematical apparatus of pattern recognition.

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida Using the ARPS Data Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan; Manobianco, John

1998-01-01

This paper describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) efforts to configure, implement, and test a version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996) that assimilates all available data within 250 km of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The objective for running a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) such as ADAS is to generate products which may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of ground and aerospace operations at KSC/CCAS. A LDIS such as ADAS has the potential to provide added value because it combines observational data to produce gridded analyses of temperature, wind, and moisture (including clouds) and diagnostic quantities such as vorticity, divergence, etc. at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. In this regard, a LDTS along with suitable visualization tools may provide users with a ignore complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time. The AMU implemented a working prototype of the ADAS which does not run in real-time. Instead, the AMU is evaluating ADAS through post-analyses of weather events for a warm and cool season case. The case studies were chosen to investigate the capabilities and limitations of a LDIS such as ADAS including the impact of non-incorporation of specific data sources on the utility of the subsequent analyses.

P161 Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Chou, Shih-Hung; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2012-01-01

For over 6 years, AIRS radiances have been assimilated operationally into National (e.g. Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)) and International (e.g. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)), operational centers; assimilated in the North American Mesoscale (NAM) since 2008. Due partly to data latency and operational constraints, hyperspectral radiance assimilation has had less impact on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used in the NAM and GFS. Objective of this project is to use AIRS retrieved profiles as a proxy for the AIRS radiances in situations where AIRS radiances are unable to be assimilated in the current operational system by evaluating location and magnitude of analysis increments.

Implementing extreme weather event advice and guidance in English public health systems.

PubMed

Wistow, Jonathan; Curtis, Sarah; Bone, Angie

2017-09-01

Extreme weather events (EWEs) can significantly impact on mortality and morbidity in the UK. How EWE guidance is disseminated and applied across health and social care systems, at the local, operational level, is not well understood. This exploratory study develops tools and resources to assist local stakeholders to cascade national 'all weather' EWE guidance across local systems. These resources are also used to evaluate the local interpretation and implementation of this advice and guidance within three local authority areas. In total, five discussion group meetings were held and 45 practitioners took part in the study. A thematic analysis was conducted. The main themes emerging from the analysis related to awareness of PHE guidance for EWE preparedness, data sharing feasibility, community engagement, specific conditions in remote rural areas and capacity of frontline staff. The relative difficulty in finding where the study 'best fits' on local stakeholders' agendas suggests that year-round and preparedness planning for EWEs may not have been considered a high priority in participating areas. This study adds to the relatively limited evidence internationally concerning the practical implementation at local level of national adaptation advice and guidance and potential barriers to achieving this. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Evaluation of Software Simulation of Road Weather Information System.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-01

A road weather information system (RWIS) is a combination of technologies that collects, transmits, models, and disseminates weather and road condition information. Sensors measure a range of weatherrelated conditions, including pavement temperatur...

Performance improvement of optical wireless communication through fog with a decision feedback equalizer.

PubMed

Aharonovich, Marius; Arnon, Shlomi

2005-08-01

Optical wireless communication (OWC) systems use the atmosphere as a propagation medium. However, a common problem is that from time to time moderate cloud and fog emerge between the receiver and the transmitter. These adverse weather conditions impose temporal broadening and power loss on the optical signal, which reduces the digital signal-to-noise ratio (DSNR), produces significant intersymbol interference (ISI), and degrades the communication system's bit error rate (BER) and throughput. We propose and investigate the use of a combined adaptive bandwidth mechanism and decision feedback equalizer (DFE) to mitigate these atmospheric multipath effects. Based on theoretical analysis and simulations of DSNR penalties, BER, and optimum system bandwidths, we show that a DFE improves the outdoor OWC system immunity to ISI in foggy weather while maintaining high throughput and desired low BER.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Contacts Change Log Events Calendar Numerical Forecast Systems NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance Page [< Modeling Center NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court

Planetary data analysis and display system: A version of PC-McIDAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Sanjay S.; Sromovsky, L. A.; Saunders, R. S.; Martin, Michael

1993-01-01

We propose to develop a system for access and analysis of planetary data from past and future space missions based on an existing system, the PC-McIDAS workstation. This system is now in use in the atmospheric science community for access to meteorological satellite and conventional weather data. The proposed system would be usable not only by planetary atmospheric researchers but also by the planetary geologic community. By providing the critical tools of an efficient system architecture, newer applications and customized user interfaces can be added by the end user within such a system.

Data Visualization and Analysis for Climate Studies using NASA Giovanni Online System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Leptoukh, Gregory; Lloyd, Steven

2008-01-01

With many global earth observation systems and missions focused on climate systems and the associated large volumes of observational data available for exploring and explaining how climate is changing and why, there is an urgent need for climate services. Giovanni, the NASA GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd ANalysis Infrastructure, is a simple to use yet powerful tool for analysing these data for research on global warming and climate change, as well as for applications to weather. air quality, agriculture, and water resources,

Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

2015-12-01

Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be followed in the future.

Meteorological tools in support to the railway security system on the Calabria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laviola, Sante; Gabriele, Salvatore; Iovine, Giulio; Baldini, Luca; Chiravalloti, Francesco; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Marcello Mario; Milani, Lisa; Procopio, Antonio; Roberto, Nicoletta; Tiesi, Alessandro; Agostino, Mario; Niccoli, Raffaele; Stassi, Sergio; Rago, Valeria

2017-04-01

RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot project co-funded by the Italian Railway Company - RFI S.p.A. and conceived for the mitigation of the hydrological risk along the Calabria railways. RAMSES aims at improving the forecast of very short life-cycle convection systems, responsible of intense and localized rainfalls affecting small catchment areas, which are often underestimated by the numerical weather models and even non-adequately detected by the network of sparse raingauges. The RAMSES operational design is based on a synergistic and integrated architecture, providing a series of information able to identify the most active convective cells and monitoring their evolution in terms of vertical structure, rain intensity and geo-hydrological effects at ground (debris flow, landslides, collapses of bridges, erosion of the ballast). The RAMSES meteorological component is designed to identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on dual-polarization weather radar and Meteosat data. In support of this quasi-real time analysis, the numerical model WRF provides the weather forecast at 3-6 hours range by ingesting, through the assimilation system LAPS, the observational data (rain gauges, ground weather stations, radar, satellites) in order to improve the initial condition. Finally, the hydraulic flow modeling is used to assess the ground effects in terms of landslide susceptibility, rainfall-runoff intensity, debris impact on the drainage network and evaluate of risk along the railway track.

Determination and representation of electric charge distributions associated with adverse weather conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rompala, John T.

1992-01-01

Algorithms are presented for determining the size and location of electric charges which model storm systems and lightning strikes. The analysis utilizes readings from a grid of ground level field mills and geometric constraints on parameters to arrive at a representative set of charges. This set is used to generate three dimensional graphical depictions of the set as well as contour maps of the ground level electrical environment over the grid. The composite, analytic and graphic package is demonstrated and evaluated using controlled input data and archived data from a storm system. The results demonstrate the packages utility as: an operational tool in appraising adverse weather conditions; a research tool in studies of topics such as storm structure, storm dynamics, and lightning; and a tool in designing and evaluating grid systems.

Aviation weather : FAA and the National Weather Service are considering plans to consolidate weather service offices, but face significant challenges.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

The National Weather Services (NWS) weather products are a vital component of the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) air traffic control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products developed at its own facilities, NWS also pr...

The meteorological monitoring system for the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dianic, Allan V.

1994-01-01

The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) are involved in many weather-sensitive operations. Manned and unmanned vehicle launches, which occur several times each year, are obvious example of operations whose success and safety are dependent upon favorable meteorological conditions. Other operations involving NASA, Air Force, and contractor personnel, including daily operations to maintain facilities, refurbish launch structures, prepare vehicles for launch, and handle hazardous materials, are less publicized but are no less weather-sensitive. The Meteorological Monitoring System (MMS) is a computer network which acquires, processes, disseminates, and monitors near real-time and forecast meteorological information to assist operational personnel and weather forecasters with the task of minimizing the risk to personnel, materials, and the surrounding population. CLIPS has been integrated into the MMS to provide quality control analysis and data monitoring. This paper describes aspects of the MMS relevant to CLIPS including requirements, actual implementation details, and results of performance testing.

The Joint Airport Weather Studies Project - Current analysis highlights in the aviation safety context

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarthy, J.

1984-01-01

The principal objective of the Joint Airport Weather Studies Project was to obtain high-resolution velocity, turbulence, and thermodynamic data on a convective outflow called a microburst, an intense downdraft and resulting horizontal outflow near the surface. Data collection occurred during the summer of 1982 near Denver, CO. Data sensors included three pulsed-microwave Doppler and two pulsed CO2 lidar radars, along with 27 Portable Automated Mesonet surface weather stations, the FAA's low-level-wind-shear alert system (LLWSAS), and five instrumented research aircraft. Convective storms occurred on 75 of 91 operational days, with Doppler data being collected on at least 70 microbursts. Analyses reported included a thorough examination of microburst-climatology statistics, the capability of the LLWSAS to detect adequately and accurately the presence of low-altitude wind shear danger to aircraft, the capability of a terminal Doppler radar system development to provide improved wind-shear detection and warning, and progress toward improved wind-shear training for pilots.

Design and Realization of Silhouette Operation Platform Based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Jia; Cui, Xinqiang; Yuan, Zhengteng

2018-01-01

Artificial weather effects after several generations of unremitting efforts in many provinces, municipalities and districts have become a regular business to serve the community. In the actual operation of the actual impact of weather operations, onsite job terminal system functional integration is not high, such as the operation process cumbersome operation instructions unreasonable, the weather data lag, the data form of a single factor and other factors seriously affect the weather conditions, Sexual and intuitive improvement. Therefore, this paper adopts the Android system as the carrier for the design and implementation of the silhouette intelligent terminal system. The intelligent terminal system has carried on the preliminary deployment trial in the real-time intelligent command system which realizes the weather operation in a province, and has formed a centralized, unified and digital artificial influence in combination with the self-developed multi-function server system platform and the remote centre command system Weather operation communication network, to achieve intelligent terminal and remote centre commander between the efficient, timely and stable information exchange, improve the shadow of the economic and social benefits, basically reached the initial design purpose.

Space Weather Needs of an Evolving Customer Base (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, B.; Viereck, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.

2013-12-01

Great progress has been made in raising the global awareness of space weather and the associated impacts on Earth and our technological systems. However, significant gaps still exist in providing comprehensive and easily understood space weather information, products, and services to the diverse and growing customer base. As technologies, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become more ingrained in applications and fields of work that previously did not rely on systems sensitive to space weather, the customer base has grown substantially. Furthermore, the causes and effects of space weather can be difficult to interpret without a detailed understanding of the scientific underpinnings. In response to this change, space weather service providers must address this evolution by both improving services and by representing space weather information and impacts in ways that are meaningful to each facet of this diverse customer base. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) must work with users, spanning precision agriculture, emergency management, power grid operators and beyond, to both identify unmet space weather service requirements and to ensure information and decision support services are provided in meaningful and more easily understood forms.

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

Numerical study of Asian dust transport during the springtime of 2001 simulated with the Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Itsushi; Satake, Shinsuke; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Tang, Youhua; Wang, Zifa; Takemura, Toshihiko; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Murayama, Toshiyuki; Cahill, Thomas A.; Cliff, Steven; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Ohta, Sachio; Quinn, Patricia K.; Bates, Timothy S.

2004-10-01

The regional-scale aerosol transport model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) is used for analysis of large-scale dust phenomena during the Asian Pacific Regional Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) intensive observation. Dust modeling results are examined with the surface weather reports, satellite-derived dust index (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI)), Mie-scattering lidar observation, and surface aerosol observations. The CFORS dust results are shown to accurately reproduce many of the important observed features. Model analysis shows that the simulated dust vertical loading correlates well with TOMS AI and that the dust loading is transported with the meandering of the synoptic-scale temperature field at the 500-hPa level. Quantitative examination of aerosol optical depth shows that model predictions are within 20% difference of the lidar observations for the major dust episodes. The structure of the ACE-Asia Perfect Dust Storm, which occurred in early April, is clarified with the help of the CFORS model analysis. This storm consisted of two boundary layer components and one elevated dust (>6-km height) feature (resulting from the movement of two large low-pressure systems). Time variation of the CFORS dust fields shows the correct onset timing of the elevated dust for each observation site, but the model results tend to overpredict dust concentrations at lower latitude sites. The horizontal transport flux at 130°E longitude is examined, and the overall dust transport flux at 130°E during March-April is evaluated to be 55 Tg.

Analysis of meteorological variables in the Australasian region using ground- and space-based GPS techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Choy, Suelynn; Fu, Erjiang Frank; Chane-Ming, Fabrice; Liou, Yuei-An; Pavelyev, Alexander G.

2016-07-01

Results of analysis of meteorological variables (temperature and moisture) in the Australasian region using the global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) and GPS ground-based observations verified with in situ radiosonde (RS) data are presented. The potential of using ground-based GPS observations for retrieving column integrated precipitable water vapour (PWV) over the Australian continent has been demonstrated using the Australian ground-based GPS reference stations network. Using data from the 15 ground-based GPS stations, the state of the atmosphere over Victoria during a significant weather event, the March 2010 Melbourne storm, has been investigated, and it has been shown that the GPS observations has potential for monitoring the movement of a weather front that has sharp moisture contrast. Temperature and moisture variability in the atmosphere over various climatic regions (the Indian and the Pacific Oceans, the Antarctic and Australia) has been examined using satellite-based GPS RO and in situ RS observations. Investigating recent atmospheric temperature trends over Antarctica, the time series of the collocated GPS RO and RS data were examined, and strong cooling in the lower stratosphere and warming through the troposphere over Antarctica has been identified, in agreement with outputs of climate models. With further expansion of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) system, it is expected that GNSS satellite- and ground-based measurements would be able to provide an order of magnitude larger amount of data which in turn could significantly advance weather forecasting services, climate monitoring and analysis in the Australasian region.

Concept for an International Standard related to Space Weather Effects on Space Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Tomky, Alyssa

There is great interest in developing an international standard related to space weather in order to specify the tools and parameters needed for space systems operations. In particular, a standard is important for satellite operators who may not be familiar with space weather. In addition, there are others who participate in space systems operations that would also benefit from such a document. For example, the developers of software systems that provide LEO satellite orbit determination, radio communication availability for scintillation events (GEO-to-ground L and UHF bands), GPS uncertainties, and the radiation environment from ground-to-space for commercial space tourism. These groups require recent historical data, current epoch specification, and forecast of space weather events into their automated or manual systems. Other examples are national government agencies that rely on space weather data provided by their organizations such as those represented in the International Space Environment Service (ISES) group of 14 national agencies. Designers, manufacturers, and launchers of space systems require real-time, operational space weather parameters that can be measured, monitored, or built into automated systems. Thus, a broad scope for the document will provide a useful international standard product to a variety of engineering and science domains. The structure of the document should contain a well-defined scope, consensus space weather terms and definitions, and internationally accepted descriptions of the main elements of space weather, its sources, and its effects upon space systems. Appendices will be useful for describing expanded material such as guidelines on how to use the standard, how to obtain specific space weather parameters, and short but detailed descriptions such as when best to use some parameters and not others; appendices provide a path for easily updating the standard since the domain of space weather is rapidly changing with new advances in scientific and engineering understanding. We present a draft outline that can be used as the basis for such a standard.

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R.

1986-10-01

The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April-September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a `normal' year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production.The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia.It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April-September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes.Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the `normal' year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by mesoscale convective weather systems in the drought year accounted for most of the precipitation received during the critical crop growth period.It is concluded that mesoscale convective weather systems may be a crucial precipitation-producing deterrent to drought and an important mechanism for enhancing midsummer crop growth throughout the midwestern United States. Furthermore, because mesoscale convective weather systems account for such a large fraction of the warm-season precipitation, significant improvements in prediction of such systems would likely translate into significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecast skill and corresponding improvements in hydrologic forecasts of runoff.

Assessing reference evapotranspiration at regional scale based on remote sensing, weather forecast and GIS tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez-Cuesta, J. M.; Cruz-Blanco, M.; Santos, C.; Lorite, I. J.

2017-03-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key component in efficient water management, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. However, accurate ETo assessment at the regional scale is complicated by the limited number of weather stations and the strict requirements in terms of their location and surrounding physical conditions for the collection of valid weather data. In an attempt to overcome this limitation, new approaches based on the use of remote sensing techniques and weather forecast tools have been proposed. Use of the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) tool and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have allowed the design and development of innovative approaches for ETo assessment, which are especially useful for areas lacking available weather data from weather stations. Thus, by identifying the best-performing interpolation approaches (such as the Thin Plate Splines, TPS) and by developing new approaches (such as the use of data from the most similar weather station, TS, or spatially distributed correction factors, CITS), errors as low as 1.1% were achieved for ETo assessment. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal that the generated errors were smaller during spring and summer as well as in homogenous topographic areas. The proposed approaches not only enabled accurate calculations of seasonal and daily ETo values, but also contributed to the development of a useful methodology for evaluating the optimum number of weather stations to be integrated into a weather station network and the appropriateness of their locations. In addition to ETo, other variables included in weather forecast datasets (such as temperature or rainfall) could be evaluated using the same innovative methodology proposed in this study.

MICROARRAY SYSTEM FOR CONTAMINATED WATER ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

We used the optimum slide treatment as determined by the previous study*: water plasma cleaning, photo-hydrolytic weathering, and silane treatment using 3-aminopropyl triethoxysilane (APS). Anti-E.coli antibodies were printed onto Corning 2947 (soda-lime-silicate) ...

Weather forecasting expert system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

The Federal Aviation Administration/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (FAA/MIT) Lincoln Laboratory Doppler weather radar program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, James E.

1988-01-01

The program focuses on providing real-time information on hazardous aviation weather to end users such as air traffic control and pilots. Existing systems will soon be replaced by a Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), which will be concerned with detecting such hazards as heavy rain and hail, turbulence, low-altitude wind shear, and mesocyclones and tornadoes. Other systems in process are the Central Weather Processor (CWP), and the terminal Doppler weather radar (TDWR). Weather measurements near Memphis are central to ongoing work, especially in the area of microbursts and wind shear.

Enhanced road weather forecasting : Clarus regional demonstrations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

The quality of road weather forecasts has major impacts on users of surface transportation systems and managers of those systems. Improving the quality involves the ability to provide accurate, route-specific road weather information (e.g., timing an...

Road weather information systems : enabling proactive maintenance practices in Washington state

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

Washington State Department of Transportation's (WSDOT) rWeather program has significantly integrated and expanded the capabilities of road weather information systems (RWIS) in the state, enabling proactive winter maintenance practices and better-in...

Using Space Weather for Enhanced, Extreme Terrestrial Weather Predictions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, M. H.; Lee, T. A., III

2017-12-01

Considering the complexities of the Sun-Earth system, the impacts of space weather to weather here on Earth are not fully understood. This study attempts to analyze this interrelationship by providing a theoretical framework for studying the varied modalities of solar inclination and explores the extent to which they contribute, both in formation and intensity, to extreme terrestrial weather. Using basic topologic and ontology engineering concepts (TOEC), the transdisciplinary syntaxes of space physics, geophysics, and meteorology are analyzed as a seamless interrelated system. This paper reports this investigation's initial findings and examines the validity of the question "Does space weather contribute to extreme weather on Earth, and if so, to what degree?"

Validating the Airspace Concept Evaluation System for Different Weather Days

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelinski, Shannon; Meyn, Larry

2006-01-01

This paper extends the process for validating the Airspace Concept Evaluation System using real-world historical flight operational data. System inputs such as flight plans and airport en-route capacities, are generated and processed to create a realistic reproduction of a single day's operations within the National Airspace System. System outputs such as airport throughput, delays, and en-route sector loads are then compared to real world operational metrics and delay statistics for the reproduced day. The process is repeated for 4 historical days with high and low traffic volume and delay attributed to weather. These 4 days are simulated using default en-route capacities and variable en-route capacities used to emulate weather. The validation results show that default enroute capacity simulations are closer to real-world data for low weather days than high weather days. The use of reduced variable enroute capacities adds a large delay bias to ACES but delay trends between weather days are better represented.

Predictability Analysis of PM10 Concentrations in Budapest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferenczi, Zita

2013-04-01

Climate, weather and air quality may have harmful effects on human health and environment. Over the past few hundred years we had to face the changes in climate in parallel with the changes in air quality. These observed changes in climate, weather and air quality continuously interact with each other: pollutants are changing the climate, thus changing the weather, but climate also has impacts on air quality. The increasing number of extreme weather situations may be a result of climate change, which could create favourable conditions for rising of pollutant concentrations. Air quality in Budapest is determined by domestic and traffic emissions combined with the meteorological conditions. In some cases, the effect of long-range transport could also be essential. While the time variability of the industrial and traffic emissions is not significant, the domestic emissions increase in winter season. In recent years, PM10 episodes have caused the most critical air quality problems in Budapest, especially in winter. In Budapest, an air quality network of 11 stations detects the concentration values of different pollutants hourly. The Hungarian Meteorological Service has developed an air quality prediction model system for the area of Budapest. The system forecasts the concentration of air pollutants (PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3) for two days in advance. In this work we used meteorological parameters and PM10 data detected by the stations of the air quality network, as well as the forecasted PM10 values of the air quality prediction model system. In this work we present the evaluation of PM10 predictions in the last two years and the most important meteorological parameters affecting PM10 concentration. The results of this analysis determine the effect of the meteorological parameters and the emission of aerosol particles on the PM10 concentration values as well as the limits of this prediction system.

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.

1997-06-01

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects of weather prediction. Chapters by area specialists provide a comprehensive view of this timely topic. They encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behavior. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential text for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finley, Cathy

2014-04-30

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements inmore » wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.« less

An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Matthew T.

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

Sub-seasonal Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events: Implication for Real-time Flood Management in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, H.; Shahbazi, A.; Zohrabi, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Mofidi, A.; Massah Bavani, A. R.

2016-12-01

Each year, a number of high impact weather events occur worldwide. Since any level of predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale is highly beneficial to society, international efforts is now on progress to promote reliable Ensemble Prediction Systems for monthly forecasts within the WWRP/WCRP initiative (S2S) project and North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME). For water resources managers in the face of extreme events, not only can reliable forecasts of high impact weather events prevent catastrophic losses caused by floods but also contribute to benefits gained from hydropower generation and water markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the predictability of recent severe weather events over Iran. Two recent heavy precipitations are considered as an illustration to examine whether S2S forecasts can be used for developing flood alert systems especially where large cascade of dams are in operation. Both events have caused major damages to cities and infrastructures. The first severe precipitation was is in the early November 2015 when heavy precipitation (more than 50 mm) occurred in 2 days. More recently, up to 300 mm of precipitation is observed within less than a week in April 2016 causing a consequent flash flood. Over some stations, the observed precipitation was even more than the total annual mean precipitation. To analyze the predictive capability, ensemble forecasts from several operational centers including (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Chinese Meteorological Center (CMA) are evaluated. It has been observed that significant changes in precipitation anomalies were likely to be predicted days in advance. The next step will be to conduct thorough analysis based on comparing multi-model outputs over the full hindcast dataset developing real-time high impact weather prediction systems.

Use of the LANDSAT-2 Data Collection System in the Colorado River Basin Weather Modification Program. [San Juan Mountains, Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahan, A. M. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The LANDSAT data collection system has proven itself to be a valuable tool for control of cloud seeding operations and for verification of weather forecasts. These platforms have proven to be reliable weather resistant units suitable for the collection of hydrometeorological data from remote severe weather environments. The detailed design of the wind speed and direction system and the wire-wrapping of the logic boards were completed.

Physicochemical characterization and failure analysis of military coating systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keene, Lionel Thomas

Modern military coating systems, as fielded by all branches of the U.S. military, generally consist of a diverse array of organic and inorganic components that can complicate their physicochemical analysis. These coating systems consist of VOC-solvent/waterborne automotive grade polyurethane matrix containing a variety of inorganic pigments and flattening agents. The research presented here was designed to overcome the practical difficulties regarding the study of such systems through the combined application of several cross-disciplinary techniques, including vibrational spectroscopy, electron microscopy, microtomy, ultra-fast laser ablation and optical interferometry. The goal of this research has been to determine the degree and spatial progression of weathering-induced alteration of military coating systems as a whole, as well as to determine the failure modes involved, and characterizing the impact of these failures on the physical barrier performance of the coatings. Transmission-mode Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy has been applied to cross-sections of both baseline and artificially weathered samples to elucidate weathering-induced spatial gradients to the baseline chemistry of the coatings. A large discrepancy in physical durability (as indicated by the spatial progression of these gradients) has been found between older and newer generation coatings. Data will be shown implicating silica fillers (previously considered inert) as the probable cause for this behavioral divergence. A case study is presented wherein the application of the aforementioned FTIR technique fails to predict the durability of the coating system as a whole. The exploitation of the ultra-fast optical phenomenon of femtosecond (10-15S) laser ablation is studied as a potential tool to facilitate spectroscopic depth profiling of composite materials. Finally, the interferometric technique of Phase Shifting was evaluated as a potential high-sensitivity technique applied to the problem of determining internal stress evolution in curing and aging coatings.

Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

2018-06-01

There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

Weather variables and the El Niño Southern Oscillation may drive the epidemics of dengue in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Jianpeng; Liu, Tao; Lin, Hualiang; Zhu, Guanghu; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Zhang, Bing; Song, Tie; Deng, Aiping; Zhang, Meng; Zhong, Haojie; Lin, Shao; Rutherford, Shannon; Meng, Xiaojing; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2018-05-15

To investigate the periodicity of dengue and the relationship between weather variables, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dengue incidence in Guangdong Province, China. Guangdong monthly dengue incidence and weather data and El Niño index information for 1988 to 2015 were collected. Wavelet analysis was used to investigate the periodicity of dengue, and the coherence and time-lag phases between dengue and weather variables and ENSO. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) approach was further employed to explore the dose-response relationship of those variables on dengue. Finally, random forest analysis was applied to measure the relative importance of the climate predictors. Dengue in Guangdong has a dominant annual periodicity over the period 1988-2015. Mean minimum temperature, total precipitation, and mean relative humidity are positively related to dengue incidence for 2, 3, and 4months lag, respectively. ENSO in the previous 12months may have driven the dengue epidemics in 1995, 2002, 2006 and 2010 in Guangdong. GAM analysis indicates an approximate linear association for the temperature-dengue relationship, approximate logarithm curve for the humidity-dengue relationship, and an inverted U-shape association for the precipitation-dengue (the threshold of precipitation is 348mm per month) and ENSO-dengue relationships (the threshold of ENSO index is 0.6°C). The monthly mean minimum temperature in the previous two months was identified as the most important climate variable associated with dengue epidemics in Guangdong Province. Our study suggests weather factors and ENSO are important predictors of dengue incidence. These findings provide useful evidence for early warning systems to help to respond to the global expansion of dengue fever. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preliminary design package for prototype solar heating and cooling systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

A summary is given of the preliminary analysis and design activity on solar heating and cooling systems. The analysis was made without site specific data other than weather; therefore, the results indicate performance expected under these special conditions. Major items include a market analysis, design approaches, trade studies and other special data required to evaluate the preliminary analysis and design. The program calls for the development and delivery of eight prototype solar heating and cooling systems for installation and operational test. Two heating and six heating and cooling units will be delivered for Single Family Residences, Multiple-family Residences and commercial applications.

Weather adjustment using seemingly unrelated regression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noll, T.A.

1995-05-01

Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) is a system estimation technique that accounts for time-contemporaneous correlation between individual equations within a system of equations. SUR is suited to weather adjustment estimations when the estimation is: (1) composed of a system of equations and (2) the system of equations represents either different weather stations, different sales sectors or a combination of different weather stations and different sales sectors. SUR utilizes the cross-equation error values to develop more accurate estimates of the system coefficients than are obtained using ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimation. SUR estimates can be generated using a variety of statistical software packagesmore » including MicroTSP and SAS.« less

Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E. M.; Pope, E. C. D.

2017-12-01

This commentary concerns recent work on solar wind forecasting by Owens and Riley (2017). The approach taken makes effective use of tools commonly used in terrestrial weather—notably, via use of a simple model—generation of an "ensemble" forecast, and application of a "cost-loss" analysis to the resulting probabilistic information, to explore the benefit of this forecast to users with different risk appetites. This commentary aims to highlight these useful techniques to the wider space weather audience and to briefly discuss the general context of application of terrestrial weather approaches to space weather.

Weather data dissemination to aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfarland, Richard H.; Parker, Craig B.

1990-01-01

Documentation exists that shows weather to be responsible for approximately 40 percent of all general aviation accidents with fatalities. Weather data products available on the ground are becoming more sophisticated and greater in number. Although many of these data are critical to aircraft safety, they currently must be transmitted verbally to the aircraft. This process is labor intensive and provides a low rate of information transfer. Consequently, the pilot is often forced to make life-critical decisions based on incomplete and outdated information. Automated transmission of weather data from the ground to the aircraft can provide the aircrew with accurate data in near-real time. The current National Airspace System Plan calls for such an uplink capability to be provided by the Mode S Beacon System data link. Although this system has a very advanced data link capability, it will not be capable of providing adequate weather data to all airspace users in its planned configuration. This paper delineates some of the important weather data uplink system requirements, and describes a system which is capable of meeting these requirements. The proposed system utilizes a run-length coding technique for image data compression and a hybrid phase and amplitude modulation technique for the transmission of both voice and weather data on existing aeronautical Very High Frequency (VHF) voice communication channels.

Weather and atmosphere observation with the ATOM all-sky camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankowsky, Felix; Wagner, Stefan

2015-03-01

The Automatic Telescope for Optical Monitoring (ATOM) for H.E.S.S. is an 75 cm optical telescope which operates fully automated. As there is no observer present during observation, an auxiliary all-sky camera serves as weather monitoring system. This device takes an all-sky image of the whole sky every three minutes. The gathered data then undergoes live-analysis by performing astrometric comparison with a theoretical night sky model, interpreting the absence of stars as cloud coverage. The sky monitor also serves as tool for a meteorological analysis of the observation site of the the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array. This overview covers design and benefits of the all-sky camera and additionally gives an introduction into current efforts to integrate the device into the atmosphere analysis programme of H.E.S.S.

Satellite Delivery of Aviation Weather Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerczewski, Robert J.; Haendel, Richard

2001-01-01

With aviation traffic continuing to increase worldwide, reducing the aviation accident rate and aviation schedule delays is of critical importance. In the United States, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established the Aviation Safety Program and the Aviation System Capacity Program to develop and test new technologies to increase aviation safety and system capacity. Weather is a significant contributor to aviation accidents and schedule delays. The timely dissemination of weather information to decision makers in the aviation system, particularly to pilots, is essential in reducing system delays and weather related aviation accidents. The NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating improved methods of weather information dissemination through satellite broadcasting directly to aircraft. This paper describes an on-going cooperative research program with NASA, Rockwell Collins, WorldSpace, Jeppesen and American Airlines to evaluate the use of satellite digital audio radio service (SDARS) for low cost broadcast of aviation weather information, called Satellite Weather Information Service (SWIS). The description and results of the completed SWIS Phase 1 are presented, and the description of the on-going SWIS Phase 2 is given.

Phase II (baseline) report for the Greater Yellowstone Regional Traveler and Weather Information System (GYRTWIS)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-09-11

In an effort to make road and weather information more readily available to travelers and maintenance personnel, Montana is implementing the Greater Yellowstone Regional Traveler and Weather Information System (GYRTWIS). GYRTWIS replaces the existing...

Weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Recommendations for using space observations of weather and climate to aid in solving earth based problems are given. Special attention was given to: (1) extending useful forecasting capability of space systems, (2) reducing social, economic, and human losses caused by weather, (3) development of space system capability to manage and control air pollutant concentrations, and (4) establish mechanisms for the national examination of deliberate and inadvertent means for modifying weather and climate.

Mining key elements for severe convection prediction based on CNN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Pan, Ning; Zhang, Changan; Sha, Hongzhou; Zhang, Bolei; Liu, Liang; Zhang, Meng

2017-04-01

Severe convective weather is a kind of weather disasters accompanied by heavy rainfall, gust wind, hail, etc. Along with recent developments on remote sensing and numerical modeling, there are high-volume and long-term observational and modeling data accumulated to capture massive severe convective events over particular areas and time periods. With those high-volume and high-variety weather data, most of the existing studies and methods carry out the dynamical laws, cause analysis, potential rule study, and prediction enhancement by utilizing the governing equations from fluid dynamics and thermodynamics. In this study, a key-element mining method is proposed for severe convection prediction based on convolution neural network (CNN). It aims to identify the key areas and key elements from huge amounts of historical weather data including conventional measurements, weather radar, satellite, so as numerical modeling and/or reanalysis data. Under this manner, the machine-learning based method could help the human forecasters on their decision-making on operational weather forecasts on severe convective weathers by extracting key information from the real-time and historical weather big data. In this paper, it first utilizes computer vision technology to complete the data preprocessing work of the meteorological variables. Then, it utilizes the information such as radar map and expert knowledge to annotate all images automatically. And finally, by using CNN model, it cloud analyze and evaluate each weather elements (e.g., particular variables, patterns, features, etc.), and identify key areas of those critical weather elements, then help forecasters quickly screen out the key elements from huge amounts of observation data by current weather conditions. Based on the rich weather measurement and model data (up to 10 years) over Fujian province in China, where the severe convective weathers are very active during the summer months, experimental tests are conducted with the new machine-learning method via CNN models. Based on the analysis of those experimental results and case studies, the proposed new method have below benefits for the severe convection prediction: (1) helping forecasters to narrow down the scope of analysis and saves lead-time for those high-impact severe convection; (2) performing huge amount of weather big data by machine learning methods rather relying on traditional theory and knowledge, which provide new method to explore and quantify the severe convective weathers; (3) providing machine learning based end-to-end analysis and processing ability with considerable scalability on data volumes, and accomplishing the analysis work without human intervention.

Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

PubMed

Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

2018-05-18

We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

A Weather Analysis and Forecasting System for Baja California, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farfan, L. M.

2006-05-01

The weather of the Baja California Peninsula, part of northwestern Mexico, is mild and dry most of the year. However, during the summer, humid air masses associated with tropical cyclones move northward in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Added features that create a unique meteorological situation include mountain ranges along the spine of the peninsula, warm water in the Gulf of California, and the cold California Current in the Pacific. These features interact with the environmental flow to induce conditions that play a role in the occurrence of localized, convective systems during the approach of tropical cyclones. Most of these events occur late in the summer, generating heavy precipitation, strong winds, lightning, and are associated with significant property damage to the local populations. Our goal is to provide information on the characteristics of these weather systems by performing an analysis of observations derived from a regional network. This includes imagery from radar and geostationary satellite, and data from surface stations. A set of real-time products are generated in our research center and are made available to a broad audience (researchers, students, and business employees) by using an internet site. Graphical products are updated anywhere from one to 24 hours and includes predictions from numerical models. Forecasts are derived from an operational model (GFS) and locally generated simulations based on a mesoscale model (MM5). Our analysis and forecasting system has been in operation since the summer of 2005 and was used as a reference for a set of discussions during the development of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones. This basin had 15 named storms and none of them made landfall on the west coast of Mexico; however, four systems were within 800 km from the area of interest, resulting in some convective activity. During the whole season, a group of 30 users from our institution, government offices, and local businesses received daily information on storm location, expected track, and potential impact on weather conditions over Baja California. From late June through October, a set of more than 50 messages were issued daily and distributed to these users. This presentation focuses on providing an overview of the lessons learned from this experience, feedback from users, and our plans for the upcoming 2006 season.

Improving vehicle tracking rate and speed estimation in dusty and snowy weather conditions with a vibrating camera

PubMed Central

Yaghoobi Ershadi, Nastaran

2017-01-01

Traffic surveillance systems are interesting to many researchers to improve the traffic control and reduce the risk caused by accidents. In this area, many published works are only concerned about vehicle detection in normal conditions. The camera may vibrate due to wind or bridge movement. Detection and tracking of vehicles is a very difficult task when we have bad weather conditions in winter (snowy, rainy, windy, etc.), dusty weather in arid and semi-arid regions, at night, etc. Also, it is very important to consider speed of vehicles in the complicated weather condition. In this paper, we improved our method to track and count vehicles in dusty weather with vibrating camera. For this purpose, we used a background subtraction based strategy mixed with an extra processing to segment vehicles. In this paper, the extra processing included the analysis of the headlight size, location, and area. In our work, tracking was done between consecutive frames via a generalized particle filter to detect the vehicle and pair the headlights using the connected component analysis. So, vehicle counting was performed based on the pairing result, with Centroid of each blob we calculated distance between two frames by simple formula and hence dividing it by the time between two frames obtained from the video. Our proposed method was tested on several video surveillance records in different conditions such as dusty or foggy weather, vibrating camera, and in roads with medium-level traffic volumes. The results showed that the new proposed method performed better than our previously published method and other methods, including the Kalman filter or Gaussian model, in different traffic conditions. PMID:29261719

Improving vehicle tracking rate and speed estimation in dusty and snowy weather conditions with a vibrating camera.

PubMed

Yaghoobi Ershadi, Nastaran

2017-01-01

Traffic surveillance systems are interesting to many researchers to improve the traffic control and reduce the risk caused by accidents. In this area, many published works are only concerned about vehicle detection in normal conditions. The camera may vibrate due to wind or bridge movement. Detection and tracking of vehicles is a very difficult task when we have bad weather conditions in winter (snowy, rainy, windy, etc.), dusty weather in arid and semi-arid regions, at night, etc. Also, it is very important to consider speed of vehicles in the complicated weather condition. In this paper, we improved our method to track and count vehicles in dusty weather with vibrating camera. For this purpose, we used a background subtraction based strategy mixed with an extra processing to segment vehicles. In this paper, the extra processing included the analysis of the headlight size, location, and area. In our work, tracking was done between consecutive frames via a generalized particle filter to detect the vehicle and pair the headlights using the connected component analysis. So, vehicle counting was performed based on the pairing result, with Centroid of each blob we calculated distance between two frames by simple formula and hence dividing it by the time between two frames obtained from the video. Our proposed method was tested on several video surveillance records in different conditions such as dusty or foggy weather, vibrating camera, and in roads with medium-level traffic volumes. The results showed that the new proposed method performed better than our previously published method and other methods, including the Kalman filter or Gaussian model, in different traffic conditions.

Audio-Visual Situational Awareness for General Aviation Pilots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of general aviation accidents. Researchers are addressing this problem from various perspectives including improving meteorological forecasting techniques, collecting additional weather data automatically via on-board sensors and "flight" modems, and improving weather data dissemination and presentation. We approach the problem from the improved presentation perspective and propose weather visualization and interaction methods tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment (AWE), utilizes information visualization techniques, a direct manipulation graphical interface, and a speech-based interface to improve a pilot's situational awareness of relevant weather data. The system design is based on a user study and feedback from pilots.

Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

PubMed

Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

2017-12-05

This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

Space and ground segment performance of the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission: four years in orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fong, C.-J.; Whiteley, D.; Yang, E.; Cook, K.; Chu, V.; Schreiner, B.; Ector, D.; Wilczynski, P.; Liu, T.-Y.; Yen, N.

2011-01-01

The FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) mission consisting of six Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites is the world's first demonstration constellation using radio occultation signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The radio occultation signals are retrieved in near real-time for global weather/climate monitoring, numerical weather prediction, and space weather research. The mission has processed on average 1400 to 1800 high-quality atmospheric sounding profiles per day. The atmospheric radio occultation soundings data are assimilated into operational numerical weather prediction models for global weather prediction, including typhoon/hurricane/cyclone forecasts. The radio occultation data has shown a positive impact on weather predictions at many national weather forecast centers. A proposed follow-on mission transitions the program from the current experimental research system to a significantly improved real-time operational system, which will reliably provide 8000 radio occultation soundings per day. The follow-on mission as planned will consist of 12 satellites with a data latency of 45 min, which will provide greatly enhanced opportunities for operational forecasts and scientific research. This paper will address the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC system and mission overview, the spacecraft and ground system performance after four years in orbit, the lessons learned from the encountered technical challenges and observations, and the expected design improvements for the new spacecraft and ground system.

Road weather information for travelers : improving road weather messages and dissemination methods.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) recently completed a study titled Human Factors Analysis of Road Weather Advisory and Control Information (Publication No. FHWAJPO- 10-053). The goal of the study was to...

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert

2016-04-01

Extreme events in weather and climate such as high wind gusts, heavy precipitation or extreme temperatures are commonly associated with high impacts on both environment and society. Forecasting extreme weather events is difficult, and very high-resolution models are needed to describe explicitly extreme weather phenomena. A prediction system for such events should therefore preferably be probabilistic in nature. Probabilistic forecasts and state estimations are nowadays common in the numerical weather prediction community. In this work, we develop a new probabilistic framework based on extreme value theory that aims to provide early warnings up to several days in advance. We consider the combined events when an observation variable Y (for instance wind speed) exceeds a high threshold y and its corresponding deterministic forecasts X also exceeds a high forecast threshold y. More specifically two problems are addressed:} We consider pairs (X,Y) of extreme events where X represents a deterministic forecast, and Y the observation variable (for instance wind speed). More specifically two problems are addressed: Given a high forecast X=x_0, what is the probability that Y>y? In other words: provide inference on the conditional probability: [ Pr{Y>y|X=x_0}. ] Given a probabilistic model for Problem 1, what is the impact on the verification analysis of extreme events. These problems can be solved with bivariate extremes (Coles, 2001), and the verification analysis in (Ferro, 2007). We apply the Ramos and Ledford (2009) parametric model for bivariate tail estimation of the pair (X,Y). The model accommodates different types of extremal dependence and asymmetry within a parsimonious representation. Results are presented using the ensemble reforecast system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (Hagedorn, 2008). Coles, S. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag.Ferro, C.A.T. (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Wea. Forecasting {22}, 1089-1100.Hagedorn, R. (2008) Using the ECMWF reforecast dataset to calibrate EPS forecasts. ECMWF Newsletter, {117}, 8-13.Ramos, A., Ledford, A. (2009) A new class of models for bivariate joint tails. J.R. Statist. Soc. B {71}, 219-241.

What the Heliophysics System Observatory is teaching us about future constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelopoulos, V.

2017-12-01

Owing to the benign space weather during the recent solar cycle numerous Heliophysics missions have outlived their original purpose and have exceeded expectations in terms of science return. The simultaneous availability of several multi-spacecraft fleets also offers conjunction opportunities that compounds their science yield. It allows the Heliophysics System, a vast region of Sun-Earth interactions, to be peered through the colletive eyes of a fortuitous grand Observatory. The success of this Heliophysics/Geospace System Observatory (H/GSO) has been partly due to fuel resources available on THEMIS, allowing it to reconfigure its orbit lines of apsides, apogees and mean anomalies to optimize conjunctions with the rest of the H/GSO. The other part of the success has been a mandatory open data policy, the accessibility of the data though common data formats, unified analysis tools (e.g. SPEDAS) and distributed data repositories. Future constellations are motivated by the recent science lessons learned: Tight connections between dayside and nightside processes, evidenced by fortuitous conjunctions of ground and space-based assets, suggest that regional activations drive classical global modes of circulation. Like regional tornadoes and hurricanes synthesize global atmospheric weather that cannot be studied with 5 weather stations alone, one per continent, so do dayside reconnection, and nightside injections require more than a handful of point measurements. Like atmospheric weather, space weather too requires networks of stations built to meet a minimum set of requirements to "play together" and build on each other over time. Like Argo's >3000 buoys have revolutionized research, modeling and prediction by global circulation models, "space buoys" can study space weather fronts and double-up as monitors and inputs to space weather models, increasing fidelity and advance warning. Reconfigurability can allow versatility as the scientific targets adjust to the knowledge gained over the years. Classical single-satellite, multi-sensor or imaging missions can benefit from the context that constellations provide. CubeSats, a disruptive technology, are catalysts for the emergence of constellations, a new research and operations asset for Heliophysics.

Total Lightning as a Severe Weather Diagnostic in Strongly Baroclinic Systems in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, E.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Goodman, Steven J.; Raghavan, R.; Buechler, Dennis

1998-01-01

The establishment of a consistent behavior of total lightning activity in severe convective storms has been challenged historically by the relative scarcity of these storms combined with the difficulties inherent in documenting the (dominant) intracloud component of total lightning. This situation has changed recently with the abundance of severe weather in central Florida during 1997-98, including the tornado outbreak of February 23, 1998, and with the development of the operational LISDAD system (Boldi et al, this conference) to document these cases. This paper is concerned primarily with the behavior of total lightning in severe weather during the dry season when the Florida atmosphere is most strongly baroclinic. It has been found that all three manifestations of severe weather (ie., hall, wind, tornadoes) are consistently preceded by rapid increases in total flash rate with values often in excess of 100 flashes/minute. Preliminary analysis suggests that this systematic electrical behavior observed in summertime 'pulse severe' storms (Hodanish et al, this conference) also pertains to the more strongly baroclinic, long-track tornadic storms (more common in Oklahoma), as evidenced by the February 23, 1998 outbreak case in central Florida exhibiting two long-tracking F3 tornadoes. The largest flash rates in severe weather anywhere occur in baroclinic conditions at midlatitude. The physical plausibility of flash rates in excess of 100 per minute will be assessed. We will also consider the differences in storm structure for high flash rate storms that are non-severe.

Impact of climate change on European weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchez, Aurelie; Forryan, Alex; Hirschi, Joel; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian; Freychet, Nicolas; Scaife, Adam; Graham, Tim

2015-04-01

An emerging science consensus is that global climate change will result in more extreme weather events with concomitant increasing financial losses. Key questions that arise are: Can an upward trend in natural extreme events be recognised and predicted at the European scale? What are the key drivers within the climate system that are changing and making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense, or both? Using state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations from the UK Met Office (HadGEM3-GC2, historical and future scenario runs) as well as reanalysis data, we highlight the potential of the currently most advanced forecasting systems to progress understanding of the causative drivers of European weather extremes, and assess future frequency and intensity of extreme weather under various climate change scenarios. We characterize European extremes in these simulations using a subset of the 27 core indices for temperature and precipitation from The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Tank et al., 2009). We focus on temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g. extremes in daily and monthly precipitation and temperatures) and relate them to the atmospheric modes of variability over Europe in order to establish the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events. Klein Tank, Albert M.G., and Francis W. Zwiers. Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500. Climate Data and Monitoring. World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

2000-01-01

The two official sources for aviation weather reports both provide weather information to a pilot in a textual format. A number of systems have recently become available to help pilots with the visualization task by providing much of the data graphically. However, two types of aviation weather data are still not being presented graphically. These are airport-specific current weather reports (known as meteorological observations, or METARs) and forecast weather reports (known as terminal area forecasts, or TAFs). Our system, Aviation Weather Environment (AWE), presents intuitive graphical displays for both METARs and TAFs, as well as winds aloft forecasts. We start with a computer-generated textual aviation weather briefing. We map this briefing onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. The pilot is able to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route. The route, altitude, true airspeed, and proposed departure time can each be modified in AWE. Integral visual display of these three elements of weather reports makes AWE a useful planning tool, as well as a weather briefing tool.

Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

2010-09-01

One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall predicted by Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5), the SMC forecast operational model, is compared with the local rain gauge network for year 2008 (Comellas et al., 2010). This study presents benefits and drawbacks of both Italian and Catalonian systems. Moreover, a particular attention is paid on the link between system's predictive ability and the predicted severe weather type as a function of its space-time development.

NASA Langley WINN System Operational Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jonsson, Jon

2003-01-01

An operational assessment of the NASA Langley Weather Information Network (WINN) System is presented. The objectives of this program include: 1) Determine if near real-time weather information presented on the flight deck improves pilot situational awareness of weather; and 2) Identify pilot interface issues related to the use of WINN system during test flights. This paper is in viewgraph form.

World weather program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

A brief description of the Global Weather Experiment is presented. The world weather watch program plan is described and includes a global observing system, a global data processing system, a global telecommunication system, and a voluntary cooperation program. A summary of Federal Agency plans and programs to meet the challenges of international meteorology for the two year period, FY 1980-1981, is presented.

Forecast and virtual weather driven plant disease risk modeling system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We describe a system in use and development that leverages public weather station data, several spatialized weather forecast types, leaf wetness estimation, generic plant disease models, and online statistical evaluation. Convergent technological developments in all these areas allow, with funding f...

A Meta-Analysis quantifying the relationships between response to nitrogen fertilization vs soil texture and weather

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Weather and soil properties are known to affect soil nitrogen (N) availability and plant N uptake. Studies examining N response as affected by soil and weather sometimes give conflicting results. Meta-analysis is a statistical method for estimating treatment effects in a series of experiments...

Automation of surface observations program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, Steve E.

1988-01-01

At present, surface weather observing methods are still largely manual and labor intensive. Through the nationwide implementation of Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), this situation can be improved. Two ASOS capability levels are planned. The first is a basic-level system which will automatically observe the weather parameters essential for aviation operations and will operate either with or without supplemental contributions by an observer. The second is a more fully automated, stand-alone system which will observe and report the full range of weather parameters and will operate primarily in the unattended mode. Approximately 250 systems are planned by the end of the decade. When deployed, these systems will generate the standard hourly and special long-line transmitted weather observations, as well as provide continuous weather information direct to airport users. Specific ASOS configurations will vary depending upon whether the operation is unattended, minimally attended, or fully attended. The major functions of ASOS are data collection, data processing, product distribution, and system control. The program phases of development, demonstration, production system acquisition, and operational implementation are described.

Resolution of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts with Application in Disease Management.

PubMed

Hughes, G; McRoberts, N; Burnett, F J

2017-02-01

Predictive systems in disease management often incorporate weather data among the disease risk factors, and sometimes this comes in the form of forecast weather data rather than observed weather data. In such cases, it is useful to have an evaluation of the operational weather forecast, in addition to the evaluation of the disease forecasts provided by the predictive system. Typically, weather forecasts and disease forecasts are evaluated using different methodologies. However, the information theoretic quantity expected mutual information provides a basis for evaluating both kinds of forecast. Expected mutual information is an appropriate metric for the average performance of a predictive system over a set of forecasts. Both relative entropy (a divergence, measuring information gain) and specific information (an entropy difference, measuring change in uncertainty) provide a basis for the assessment of individual forecasts.

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space weather and this influences our forecasts. In this presentation, I will discuss the unique challenges that space weather forecasters face when explaining what we know and what we don't know about space weather events to customers and policy makers.

Studying Weather and Climate Extremes in a Non-stationary Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2010-12-01

The study of weather and climate extremes often uses the theory of extreme values. Such a detection method has a major problem: to obtain the probability distribution of extremes, one has to implicitly assume the Earth’s climate is stationary over a long period within which the climatology is defined. While such detection makes some sense in a purely statistical view of stationary processes, it can lead to misleading statistical properties of weather and climate extremes caused by long term climate variability and change, and may also cause enormous difficulty in attributing and predicting these extremes. To alleviate this problem, here we report a novel non-stationary framework for studying weather and climate extremes in a non-stationary framework. In this new framework, the weather and climate extremes will be defined as timescale-dependent quantities derived from the anomalies with respect to non-stationary climatologies of different timescales. With this non-stationary framework, the non-stationary and nonlinear nature of climate system will be taken into account; and the attribution and the prediction of weather and climate extremes can then be separated into 1) the change of the statistical properties of the weather and climate extremes themselves and 2) the background climate variability and change. The new non-stationary framework will use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, which is a recent major improvement of the Hilbert-Huang Transform for time-frequency analysis. Using this tool, we will adaptively decompose various weather and climate data from observation and climate models in terms of the components of the various natural timescales contained in the data. With such decompositions, the non-stationary statistical properties (both spatial and temporal) of weather and climate anomalies and of their corresponding climatologies will be analyzed and documented.

Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

PubMed Central

Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010–2012 period. We utilized 2000–2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations. PMID:24658301

North American Observing Systems: An Interagency Group Runs Tests at the NCCS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Some 250,000 weather reports are collected by the National Weather Service (NWS) every day. Important measurements are taken by satellites, weather balloons, ground weather stations, airplanes, oceangoing ships, and tethered ocean buoys. Local or global weather models rely on these reports to provide the raw data used as initial conditions for the models to produce a weather prediction.

The Weathering of Antarctic Meteorites: Climatic Controls on Weathering Rates and Implications for Meteorite Accumulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benoit, P. H.; Akridge, J. M. C.; Sears, D. W. G.; Bland, P. A.

1995-01-01

Weathering of meteorites includes a variety of chemical and mineralogical changes, including conversion of metal to iron oxides, or rust. Other changes include the devitrification of glass, especially in fusion crust. On a longer time scale, major minerals such as olivine, pyroxene, and feldspar are partially or wholly converted to various phyllosilicates. The degree of weathering of meteorite finds is often noted using a qualitative system based on visual inspection of hand specimens. Several quantitative weathering classification systems have been proposed or are currently under development. Wlotzka has proposed a classification system based on mineralogical changes observed in polished sections and Mossbauer properties of meteorite powders have also been used. In the current paper, we discuss induced thermoluminescence (TL) as an indicator of degree of weathering of individual meteorites. The quantitative measures of weathering, including induced TL, suffer from one major flaw, namely that their results only apply to small portions of the meteorite.

Assessment of Slope Stability of Various Cut Slopes with Effects of Weathering by Using Slope Stability Probability Classification (SSPC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ersöz, Timur; Topal, Tamer

2017-04-01

Rocks containing pore spaces, fractures, joints, bedding planes and faults are prone to weathering due to temperature differences, wetting-drying, chemistry of solutions absorbed, and other physical and chemical agents. Especially cut slopes are very sensitive to weathering activities because of disturbed rock mass and topographical condition by excavation. During and right after an excavation process of a cut slope, weathering and erosion may act on this newly exposed rock material. These acting on the material may degrade and change its properties and the stability of the cut slope in its engineering lifetime. In this study, the effect of physical and chemical weathering agents on shear strength parameters of the rocks are investigated in order to observe the differences between weathered and unweathered rocks. Also, slope stability assessment of cut slopes affected by these weathering agents which may disturb the parameters like strength, cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight, water absorption and porosity are studied. In order to compare the condition of the rock materials and analyze the slope stability, the parameters of weathered and fresh rock materials are found with in-situ tests such as Schmidt hammer and laboratory tests like uniaxial compressive strength, point load and direct shear. Moreover, slake durability and methylene blue tests are applied to investigate the response of the rock to weathering and presence of clays in rock materials, respectively. In addition to these studies, both rock strength parameters and any kind of failure mechanism are determined by probabilistic approach with the help of SSPC system. With these observations, the performances of the weathered and fresh zones of the cut slopes are evaluated and 2-D slope stability analysis are modeled with further recommendations for the cut slopes. Keywords: 2-D Modeling, Rock Strength, Slope Stability, SSPC, Weathering

Traditional climate knowledge: a case study in a peasant community of Tlaxcala, Mexico.

PubMed

Rivero-Romero, Alexis D; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; Casas, Alejandro; Castillo, Alicia; Camou-Guerrero, Andrés

2016-08-18

Traditional climate knowledge is a comprehensive system of insights, experiences and practices used by peasant communities to deal with the uncertainties of climate conditions affecting their livelihood. This knowledge is today as relevant in the Mesoamerican and Andean regions as it is in Europe and Asia. Our research sought to analyze the traditional knowledge about the weather and climate in a rural village of the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico, and its importance in decision-making in agriculture. Through 30 interviews and participant observation in the community during 2013, information was gathered about traditional climate and weather indicators and prediction tools, as well as rituals and agronomic and agroforestry strategies. This information allowed for the reconstruction of the community's agro-festive calendar. Data analysis was carried out with the help of the qualitative analysis software Atlas.ti (version 7). The socio-ecological importance of traditional knowledge about the climate lies in its ability to forecast local weather conditions and recognize climate variations, so vital to the food security of rural families. Knowledge about climate predictors is exchanged and passed on from generation to generation, contributing to the preservation and promotion of biodiversity. By observing the behavior of 16 animals and 12 plant species (both domestic and wild) as well as seven astronomical indicators, villagers are able to predict rain, dry weather and frosts. However, the continuity of this traditional knowledge in the community under study is now compromised by the little interest in agriculture characteristic of the younger generations, the ensuing abandonment of the countryside, the widespread economic crisis and the disappearance of animal and plant species. Traditional climate knowledge includes the understanding of weather events and weather changes at different time scales (hours, days, weeks, and seasons). The ability to interpret weather events thanks to the accumulated knowledge about the climate through generations may prove today a relevant tool for improving agricultural practices and dealing with local and global socio-ecological changes.

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

1989-01-01

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

RE-Europe, a large-scale dataset for modeling a highly renewable European electricity system

PubMed Central

Jensen, Tue V.; Pinson, Pierre

2017-01-01

Future highly renewable energy systems will couple to complex weather and climate dynamics. This coupling is generally not captured in detail by the open models developed in the power and energy system communities, where such open models exist. To enable modeling such a future energy system, we describe a dedicated large-scale dataset for a renewable electric power system. The dataset combines a transmission network model, as well as information for generation and demand. Generation includes conventional generators with their technical and economic characteristics, as well as weather-driven forecasts and corresponding realizations for renewable energy generation for a period of 3 years. These may be scaled according to the envisioned degrees of renewable penetration in a future European energy system. The spatial coverage, completeness and resolution of this dataset, open the door to the evaluation, scaling analysis and replicability check of a wealth of proposals in, e.g., market design, network actor coordination and forecasting of renewable power generation. PMID:29182600

RE-Europe, a large-scale dataset for modeling a highly renewable European electricity system.

PubMed

Jensen, Tue V; Pinson, Pierre

2017-11-28

Future highly renewable energy systems will couple to complex weather and climate dynamics. This coupling is generally not captured in detail by the open models developed in the power and energy system communities, where such open models exist. To enable modeling such a future energy system, we describe a dedicated large-scale dataset for a renewable electric power system. The dataset combines a transmission network model, as well as information for generation and demand. Generation includes conventional generators with their technical and economic characteristics, as well as weather-driven forecasts and corresponding realizations for renewable energy generation for a period of 3 years. These may be scaled according to the envisioned degrees of renewable penetration in a future European energy system. The spatial coverage, completeness and resolution of this dataset, open the door to the evaluation, scaling analysis and replicability check of a wealth of proposals in, e.g., market design, network actor coordination and forecasting of renewable power generation.

RE-Europe, a large-scale dataset for modeling a highly renewable European electricity system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Tue V.; Pinson, Pierre

2017-11-01

Future highly renewable energy systems will couple to complex weather and climate dynamics. This coupling is generally not captured in detail by the open models developed in the power and energy system communities, where such open models exist. To enable modeling such a future energy system, we describe a dedicated large-scale dataset for a renewable electric power system. The dataset combines a transmission network model, as well as information for generation and demand. Generation includes conventional generators with their technical and economic characteristics, as well as weather-driven forecasts and corresponding realizations for renewable energy generation for a period of 3 years. These may be scaled according to the envisioned degrees of renewable penetration in a future European energy system. The spatial coverage, completeness and resolution of this dataset, open the door to the evaluation, scaling analysis and replicability check of a wealth of proposals in, e.g., market design, network actor coordination and forecasting of renewable power generation.

Maintenance Decision Support System: Pilot Study and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Phase 2.5)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

This project focused on several tasks: development of in-vehicle hardware that permits implementation of an MDSS, development of software to collect and process road and weather data, a cost-benefit study, and pilot-scale implementation. Two Automati...

Maintenance Decision Support System : Pilot Study and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Phase 2)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

This project focused on several tasks: development of in-vehicle hardware that permits implementation of an MDSS, development of software to collect and process road and weather data, a cost-benefit study, and pilot-scale implementation. Two Automati...

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Assessing dry weather flow contribution in TSS and COD storm events loads in combined sewer systems.

PubMed

Métadier, M; Bertrand-Krajewski, J L

2011-01-01

Continuous high resolution long term turbidity measurements along with continuous discharge measurements are now recognised as an appropriate technique for the estimation of in sewer total suspended solids (TSS) and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) loads during storm events. In the combined system of the Ecully urban catchment (Lyon, France), this technique is implemented since 2003, with more than 200 storm events monitored. This paper presents a method for the estimation of the dry weather (DW) contribution to measured total TSS and COD event loads with special attention devoted to uncertainties assessment. The method accounts for the dynamics of both discharge and turbidity time series at two minutes time step. The study is based on 180 DW days monitored in 2007-2008. Three distinct classes of DW days were evidenced. Variability analysis and quantification showed that no seasonal effect and no trend over the year were detectable. The law of propagation of uncertainties is applicable for uncertainties estimation. The method has then been applied to all measured storm events. This study confirms the interest of long term continuous discharge and turbidity time series in sewer systems, especially in the perspective of wet weather quality modelling.

The Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT): A unique facility for propulsion system and adverse weather testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlin, R.

1985-01-01

A need has arisen for a new wind tunnel facility with unique capabilities for testing propulsion systems and for conducting research in adverse weather conditions. New propulsion system concepts, new aircraft configurations with an unprecedented degree of propulsion system/aircraft integration, and requirements for aircraft operation in adverse weather dictate the need for a new test facility. Required capabilities include simulation of both altitude pressure and temperature, large size, full subsonic speed range, propulsion system operation, and weather simulation (i.e., icing, heavy rain). A cost effective rehabilitation of the NASA Lewis Research Center's Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT) will provide a facility with all these capabilities.

Creating a Realistic Weather Environment for Motion-Based Piloted Flight Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Taumi S.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Evans, Emory T.; Neece, Robert T.; Young, Steve D.

2012-01-01

A flight simulation environment is being enhanced to facilitate experiments that evaluate research prototypes of advanced onboard weather radar, hazard/integrity monitoring (HIM), and integrated alerting and notification (IAN) concepts in adverse weather conditions. The simulation environment uses weather data based on real weather events to support operational scenarios in a terminal area. A simulated atmospheric environment was realized by using numerical weather data sets. These were produced from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model hosted and run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To align with the planned flight simulation experiment requirements, several HRRR data sets were acquired courtesy of NOAA. These data sets coincided with severe weather events at the Memphis International Airport (MEM) in Memphis, TN. In addition, representative flight tracks for approaches and departures at MEM were generated and used to develop and test simulations of (1) what onboard sensors such as the weather radar would observe; (2) what datalinks of weather information would provide; and (3) what atmospheric conditions the aircraft would experience (e.g. turbulence, winds, and icing). The simulation includes a weather radar display that provides weather and turbulence modes, derived from the modeled weather along the flight track. The radar capabilities and the pilots controls simulate current-generation commercial weather radar systems. Appropriate data-linked weather advisories (e.g., SIGMET) were derived from the HRRR weather models and provided to the pilot consistent with NextGen concepts of use for Aeronautical Information Service (AIS) and Meteorological (MET) data link products. The net result of this simulation development was the creation of an environment that supports investigations of new flight deck information systems, methods for incorporation of better weather information, and pilot interface and operational improvements for better aviation safety. This research is part of a larger effort at NASA to study the impact of the growing complexity of operations, information, and systems on crew decision-making and response effectiveness; and then to recommend methods for improving future designs.

Soil chemical weathering under morphologic and climatic controls in the Northern Rockies, Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjaram, S. S.; Dixon, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate influences soil weathering via moisture availability and temperatures, but globally physical erosion rate appears to be a more important control on weathering rate than climate. Understanding these links requires investigation into landscapes where the climate's influence on weathering is discernable despite the signal of physical erosion rate—in kinetically limited regimes. However, in these systems, rapid erosion rates and complex morphologies add complexity and heterogeneity to soil weathering. To investigate the dual controls of landscape morphology and climate on chemical weathering, we quantify soil distribution, thickness, and weathering extent by focusing on catchments within two adjacent mountain ranges in the Northern Rockies. The Bitterroot Mtns present previously-glaciated valleys with steep ridges and high present-day MAP, which contrast with the drier and more gentle, nonglaciated hillslopes of the Sapphire Mtns to the east. We use field and remotely sensed data to quantify soil distribution and thickness, and elemental geochemistry to measure the variability of chemical weathering across these systems.Mean slopes in the Bitterroots are ~1.3x higher than those in our Sapphire catchment, leading to large differences in soil distribution. Initial mapping of soils using remotely sensed data and rock exposure indices (REI) indicate that ~50% of the Bitterroot system is bare of soil, compared to <5% in the Sapphire system. REIs are distinct between these systems, with ~10˚ difference in slope thresholds for soil cover. Additionally, field data indicate that sparse soils of the Bitterroots are significantly thinner than those in Sapphire system (B=17±2cm, n=161; S=32±3, n=31). Initial XRF data suggest soil weathering intensity is more than two times greater in the Sapphires. These results suggest that the morphologic landscape legacy left by now-extinct glaciers imposes a kinetic limitation on soil weathering, even despite high modern moisture availability.

An Automated Method to Identify Mesoscale Convective Complexes in the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitehall, K. D.; Jenkins, G. S.; Mattmann, C. A.; Waliser, D. E.; Kim, J.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A. F.; Ramirez, P.; Whittell, J.; Zimdars, P. A.

2012-12-01

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) are large (2 - 3 x 105 km2) nocturnal convectively-driven weather systems that are generally associated with high precipitation events in short durations (less than 12hrs) in various locations through out the tropics and midlatitudes (Maddox 1980). These systems are particularly important for climate in the West Sahel region, where the precipitation associated with them is a principal component of the rainfall season (Laing and Fritsch 1993). These systems occur on weather timescales and are historically identified from weather data analysis via manual and more recently automated processes (Miller and Fritsch 1991, Nesbett 2006, Balmey and Reason 2012). The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an open source tool designed for easy evaluation of climate and Earth system data through access to standardized datasets, and intrinsic tools that perform common analysis and visualization tasks (Hart et al. 2011). The RCMES toolkit also provides the flexibility of user-defined subroutines for further metrics, visualization and even dataset manipulation. The purpose of this study is to present a methodology for identifying MCCs in observation datasets using the RCMES framework. TRMM 3 hourly datasets will be used to demonstrate the methodology for 2005 boreal summer. This method promotes the use of open source software for scientific data systems to address a concern to multiple stakeholders in the earth sciences. A historical MCC dataset provides a platform with regards to further studies of the variability of frequency on various timescales of MCCs that is important for many including climate scientists, meteorologists, water resource managers, and agriculturalists. The methodology of using RCMES for searching and clipping datasets will engender a new realm of studies as users of the system will no longer be restricted to solely using the datasets as they reside in their own local systems; instead will be afforded rapid, effective, and transparent access, processing and visualization of the wealth of remote sensing datasets and climate model outputs available.

A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2009-12-01

As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

Cesium and strontium loads into a combined sewer system from rainwater runoff.

PubMed

Kamei-Ishikawa, Nao; Yoshida, Daiki; Ito, Ayumi; Umita, Teruyuki

2016-12-01

In this study, combined sewage samples were taken with time in several rain events and sanitary sewage samples were taken with time in dry weather to calculate Cs and Sr loads to sewers from rainwater runoff. Cs and Sr in rainwater were present as particulate forms at first flush and the particulate Cs and Sr were mainly bound with inorganic suspended solids such as clay minerals in combined sewage samples. In addition, multiple linear regression analysis showed Cs and Sr loads from rainwater runoff could be estimated by the total amount of rainfall and antecedent dry weather days. The variation of the Sr load from rainwater to sewers was more sensitive to total amount of rainfall and antecedent dry weather days than that of the Cs load. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weather Radar Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-31

radar operation and data - collection activities, a large data -analysis effort has been under way in support of automatic wind-shear detection algorithm ...REDUCTION AND ALGORITHM DEVELOPMENT 49 A. General-Purpose Software 49 B. Concurrent Computer Systems 49 C. Sun Workstations 51 D. Radar Data Analysis 52...1. Algorithm Verification 52 2. Other Studies 53 3. Translations 54 4. Outside Distributions 55 E. Mesonet/LLWAS Data Analysis 55 1. 1985 Data 55 2

A hybrid modulation for the dissemination of weather data to aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akos, Dennis M.

1991-01-01

Ohio University is continuing to conduct research to improve its system for weather data dissemination to aircraft. The current experimental system transmit compressed weather radar reflectivity patterns from a ground based station to aircraft. Although an effective system, the limited frequency spectrum does not provide a channel for transmission. This introduces the idea of a hybrid modulation. The hybrid technique encodes weather data using phase modulation (PM) onto an existing aeronautical channel which employs amplitude modulation (AM) for voice signal transmission. Ideally, the two modulations are independent of one another. The planned implementation and basis of the system are the reviewed.

Geodetic Space Weather Monitoring by means of Ionosphere Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Michael

2017-04-01

The term space weather indicates physical processes and phenomena in space caused by radiation of energy mainly from the Sun. Manifestations of space weather are (1) variations of the Earth's magnetic field, (2) the polar lights in the northern and southern hemisphere, (3) variations within the ionosphere as part of the upper atmosphere characterized by the existence of free electrons and ions, (4) the solar wind, i.e. the permanent emission of electrons and photons, (5) the interplanetary magnetic field, and (6) electric currents, e.g. the van Allen radiation belt. It can be stated that ionosphere disturbances are often caused by so-called solar storms. A solar storm comprises solar events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which have different effects on the Earth. Solar flares may cause disturbances in positioning, navigation and communication. CMEs can effect severe disturbances and in extreme cases damages or even destructions of modern infrastructure. Examples are interruptions to satellite services including the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), communication systems, Earth observation and imaging systems or a potential failure of power networks. Currently the measurements of solar satellite missions such as STEREO and SOHO are used to forecast solar events. Besides these measurements the Earth's ionosphere plays another key role in monitoring the space weather, because it responses to solar storms with an increase of the electron density. Space-geodetic observation techniques, such as terrestrial GNSS, satellite altimetry, space-borne GPS (radio occultation), DORIS and VLBI provide valuable global information about the state of the ionosphere. Additionally geodesy has a long history and large experience in developing and using sophisticated analysis and combination techniques as well as empirical and physical modelling approaches. Consequently, geodesy is predestinated for strongly supporting space weather monitoring via modelling the ionosphere and detecting and forecasting its disturbances. At present a couple of nations, such as the US, UK, Japan, Canada and China, are taken the threats from extreme space weather events seriously and support the development of observing strategies and fundamental research. However, (extreme) space weather events are in all their consequences on the modern highly technologized society, causative global problems which have to be treated globally and not regionally or even nationally. Consequently, space weather monitoring must include (1) all space-geodetic observation techniques and (2) geodetic evaluation methods such as data combination, real-time modelling and forecast. In other words, geodetic space weather monitoring comprises the basic ideas of GGOS and will provide products such as forecasts of severe solar events in order to initiate necessary activities to protect the infrastructure of modern society.

Data Integration Plans for the NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Williams, D. N.; Deluca, C.; Hankin, S. C.; Compo, G. P.

2010-12-01

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and its collaborators have initiated a five-year development and implementation of an operational access capability for the next generation weather and climate model datasets. The NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) is being designed using format neutral open web based standards and tools where users at all levels of expertise can gain access and understanding to many of NOAA’s climate and weather model products. NCMP will closely coordinate with and reside under the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP). To carry out its mission, NOAA must be able to successfully integrate model output and other data and information from all of its discipline specific areas to understand and address the complexity of many environmental problems. The NCMP will be an initial access point for the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP), which is the basis for unified access to NOAA climate products and services. NCMP is currently collaborating with the emerging Environmental Projection Center (EPC) expected to be developed at the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder CO. Specifically, NCMP is being designed to: - Enable policy makers and resource managers to make informed national and global policy decisions using integrated climate and weather model outputs, observations, information, products, and other services for the scientist and the non-scientist; - Identify model to observational interoperability requirements for climate and weather system analysis and diagnostics; - Promote the coordination of an international reanalysis observational clearinghouse (i.e.., Reanalysis.org) spanning the worlds numerical processing Center’s for an “Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System”. NCMP will initially provide access capabilities to 3 of NOAA’s high volume Reanalysis data sets of the weather and climate systems: 1) NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS-R); 2) NOAA’s Climate Diagnostics Center/ Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project data set (20CR, G. Compo, et al.), a historical reanalysis that will provide climate information dating back to 1850 to the present; and 3) the CPC’s Upper Air Reanlaysis. NCMP will advance the highly successful NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS, Rutledge, BAMS 2006), and standards already in use including Unidata’s THREDDS (TDS), PMEL’s Live Access Server (LAS) and the GrADS Data Server (GDS) from COLA; the Department of Energy (DOE) Earth System Grid (ESG) and the associated IPCC Climate model archive located at the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Inter-comparison (PCMDI) through the ESG; and NOAA’s Unified Access Framework (UAF) effort; and core standards developed by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The format neutral OPeNDAP protocol as used in the NOMADS system will also be a key aspect of the design of NCMP.

A study of ASRS reports involving general aviation and weather encounters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rockwell, T. H.; Roach, D. E.; Griffin, W. C.

1981-01-01

Consideration is given to the nature and characteristics of problems involving dissemination of weather information, use of this information by pilots, its adequacy for the purpose intended, the ability of the air traffic control system to cope with weather related incidents, and the various aspects of pilot behavior, aircraft equipment, and NAVAIDS affecting flights in which weather figures. It is concluded from the study that skill and training deficiencies of general aviation pilots are not major factors in weather related occurrences, nor is lack of aircraft equipment. Major problem causes are identified with timely and easily interpreted weather information, judgement and attitude factors of pilots, and the functioning of the air traffic control system.

A conceptual weather-type classification procedure for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.

1990-01-01

A simple method of weather-type classification, based on a conceptual model of pressure systems that pass through the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, area, has been developed. The only inputs required for the procedure are daily mean wind direction and cloud cover, which are used to index the relative position of pressure systems and fronts to Philadelphia.Daily mean wind-direction and cloud-cover data recorded at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from January 1954 through August 1988 were used to categorize daily weather conditions. The conceptual weather types reflect changes in daily air and dew-point temperatures, and changes in monthly mean temperature and monthly and annual precipitation. The weather-type classification produced by using the conceptual model was similar to a classification produced by using a multivariate statistical classification procedure. Even though the conceptual weather types are derived from a small amount of data, they appear to account for the variability of daily weather patterns sufficiently to describe distinct weather conditions for use in environmental analyses of weather-sensitive processes.

Weather in the cockpit : priorities, sources, delivery, and needs in the next generation air transportation system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-07-01

A study was conducted to identify/verify weather factors important to the conduct of aviation activities and : that would be important to consider in systems intended to operate within the NextGen environment. The : study reviewed weather-information...

Evaluation of a variable speed limit system for wet and extreme weather conditions : phase 1 report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-06-01

Weather presents considerable challenges to the highway system, both in terms of safety and operations. From a safety standpoint, weather (i.e. precipitation in the form of rain, snow or ice) reduces pavement friction, thus increasing the potential f...

Analysis on the Intention to Purchase Weather Index Insurance and Development Agenda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.; Jung, J.; Shin, J.; Kim, B.

2013-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how to revitalize weather insurance. Current state of weather insurance market is firstly described, and the necessity of insurance products and intention to purchase are analyzed based on the recognition survey regarding weather insurance focusing on the weather index insurance. The result of intention to purchase insurance products were examined with Ordered Logit Analysis (OLA), indicating that the amount of damages, the impacts of weather change, and experience of damage and loss have a positive relationship with the intention to purchase weather insurance. In addition, recognition of the amount of acceptable payment for insurance (i.e. willingness to pay) was analyzed for both the group who wants to purchase insurance (Group 1) and the group who does not want to (Group 2). The results demonstrate that Group 1 shows statistically higher significance than Group 2. Based on the results above with the increase in abnormal weather phenomena, we could predict that the amount of damages and losses will be rapidly increasing. The portion of weather insurance market is also expected to consistently develop and expand. This study could be a cornerstone for drawing a plan to revitalize weather insurance.

An attempt to comprehend Martian weathering conditions through the analysis of terrestrial palagonite samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, C.; Wright, I. P.; Bell, J. B.; Morris, R. V.; Golden, D. C.; Pillinger, C. T.

1993-01-01

Spectroscopic observations of the Martian surface in the invisible to near infrared (0.4-1.0 micron), coupled with measurements made by Viking, have shown that the surface is composed of a mixture of fine-grained weathered and nonweathered minerals. The majority of the weathered components are thought to be materials like smectite clays, scapolite, or palagonite. Until materials are returned for analysis there are two possible ways of proceeding with an investigation of Martian surface processes: (1) the study of weathering products in meteorites that have a Martian origin (SNC's), and (2) the analysis of certain terrestrial weathering products as analogs to the material found in SNC's, or predicted to be present on the Martian surface. We describe some preliminary measurements of the carbon chemistry of terrestrial palagonite samples that exhibit spectroscopic similarities with the Martian surface. The data should aid the understanding of weathering in SNC's and comparisons between terrestrial palagonites and the Martian surface.

Adjustment of corn nitrogen in-season fertilization based on soil texture and weather conditions: a Meta-analysis of North American trials

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil properties and weather conditions are known to affect soil nitrogen (N) availability and plant N uptake. However, studies examining N response as affected by soil and weather sometimes give conflicting results. Meta-analysis is a statistical method for estimating treatment effects in a series o...

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for Total Lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Koshak, W.; Buechler, D.; Carey, L.; Chronis, T.; Mach, D.; Bateman, M.; Peterson, H.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.;

Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

2011-01-01

The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers that start far ahead of encountering a weather cell when rerouting around weather.

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

2012-01-01

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shaw, Michael; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Cetola, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours. AFWA recognizes the importance of operational benchmarking and uncertainty characterization for land surface modeling and is developing standard methods, software, and metrics to verify and/or validate LIS output products. To facilitate this and other needs for land analysis activities at AFWA, the Model Evaluation Toolkit (MET) -- a joint product of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Developmental Testbed Center (NCAR DTC), AFWA, and the user community -- and the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT), developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), have been adapted to operational benchmarking needs of AFWA's land characterization activities.

Dual-Doppler Feasibility Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.

2012-01-01

When two or more Doppler weather radar systems are monitoring the same region, the Doppler velocities can be combined to form a three-dimensional (3-D) wind vector field thus providing for a more intuitive analysis of the wind field. A real-time display of the 3-D winds can assist forecasters in predicting the onset of convection and severe weather. The data can also be used to initialize local numerical weather prediction models. Two operational Doppler Radar systems are in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS); these systems are operated by the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and the National Weather Service Melbourne, Fla. (NWS MLB). Dual-Doppler applications were considered by the 45 SW in choosing the site for the new radar. Accordingly, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), NWS MLB and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to investigate the feasibility of establishing dual-Doppler capability using the two existing systems. This study investigated technical, hardware, and software requirements necessary to enable the establishment of a dual-Doppler capability. Review of the available literature pertaining to the dual-Doppler technique and consultation with experts revealed that the physical locations and resulting beam crossing angles of the 45 SW and NWS MLB radars make them ideally suited for a dual-Doppler capability. The dual-Doppler equations were derived to facilitate complete understanding of dual-Doppler synthesis; to determine the technical information requirements; and to determine the components of wind velocity from the equation of continuity and radial velocity data collected by the two Doppler radars. Analysis confirmed the suitability of the existing systems to provide the desired capability. In addition, it is possible that both 45 SW radar data and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar data from Orlando International Airport could be used to alleviate any radar geometry issues at the NWS MLB radar, such as the "cone of silence" or beam blockage. In the event of a radar outage at one of the sites, the multi-radar algorithms would provide continuing coverage of the area through use of the data from the remaining operational radar sites. There are several options to collect, edit, synthesize and display dual-Doppler data sets. These options include commercial packages available for purchase and a variety of freeware packages available from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for processing raw radar data. However, evaluation of the freeware packages revealed that they do not have sufficient documentation and configuration control to be certified for 45 SW use. Additionally, a TI data line must be installed/leased from the NWS MLB office and CCAFS to enable the receipt of NWS MLB raw radar data to use in the dual-Doppler synthesis. Integration of the TI data line into the Eastern Range infrastructure that will meet the security requirements necessary for 45 SW use is time-consuming and costly. Overall evaluation indicates that establishment of the dual-Doppler capability using the existing operational radar systems is desirable and feasible with no technical concerns. Installation of such a system represents a significant enhancement to forecasting capabilities at the 45 WS and at NWS MLB. However, data security and cost considerations must be evaluated in light of current budgetary constraints. In any case, gaining the dual-Doppler capability will provide opportunities for better visualization of the wind field and better forecasting of the onset of convection and severe weather events to support space launch operations at KSC and CCAFS.

Road weather management best practices : version 3.0.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

The impacts of weather on the nations road system greatly affect safety, mobility, and productivity. Weather affects roadway safety through increased crash risk, as well as exposure to weather-related hazards. On average 7,130 fatalities and 629,0...

NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

Science.gov Websites

Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches Mesoscale Discussions Convective Outlooks Thunderstorm Outlook Fire Weather Analysis Sounding Climatology Upper-Air Maps HREF HRRR Browser SREF SREF Plumes Fire Weather Composite Maps Convective Outlook. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details... Critical fire weather

Ecological Effects of Weather Modification: A Problem Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Charles F.; Jolly, William C.

This publication reviews the potential hazards to the environment of weather modification techniques as they eventually become capable of producing large scale weather pattern modifications. Such weather modifications could result in ecological changes which would generally require several years to be fully evident, including the alteration of…

Spectrum Modal Analysis for the Detection of Low-Altitude Windshear with Airborne Doppler Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunkel, Matthew W.

1992-01-01

A major obstacle in the estimation of windspeed patterns associated with low-altitude windshear with an airborne pulsed Doppler radar system is the presence of strong levels of ground clutter which can strongly bias a windspeed estimate. Typical solutions attempt to remove the clutter energy from the return through clutter rejection filtering. Proposed is a method whereby both the weather and clutter modes present in a return spectrum can be identified to yield an unbiased estimate of the weather mode without the need for clutter rejection filtering. An attempt will be made to show that modeling through a second order extended Prony approach is sufficient for the identification of the weather mode. A pattern recognition approach to windspeed estimation from the identified modes is derived and applied to both simulated and actual flight data. Comparisons between windspeed estimates derived from modal analysis and the pulse-pair estimator are included as well as associated hazard factors. Also included is a computationally attractive method for estimating windspeeds directly from the coefficients of a second-order autoregressive model. Extensions and recommendations for further study are included.

Assimilation of Cloud Information in Numerical Weather Prediction Model in Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HENG, Z.

2016-12-01

Based on the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, simulation experiments from July 1st 2015 to August 1st 2015 are conducted in the region of Southwest China. In the assimilation experiment (EXP), datasets from surface observations are assimilated, cloud information from weather Doppler radar, Fengyun-2E (FY-2E) geostationary satellite are retrieved by using the complex cloud analysis scheme in the ADAS, to insert microphysical variables and adjust the humility structure in the initial condition. As a control run (CTL), datasets from surface observations are assimilated, but no cloud information is used in the ADAS. The simulation result of a rainstorm caused by the Southwest Vortex during 14-15 July 2015 shows that, the EXP run has a better capability in representing the shape and intensity of precipitation, especially the center of rainstorm. The one-month inter-comparison of the initial and prediction results between the EXP and CTL runs reveled that, EXP runs can present a more reasonable phenomenon of rain and get a higher score in the rain prediction. Keywords: NWP, rainstorm, Data assimilation

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keitz, J. F.

1982-01-01

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 2 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 2 compares various catagories of flight plans and flight tracking data produced by a simulation system developed for the Federal Aviation Administrations by SRI International. (Flight tracking data simulate actual flight tracks of all aircraft operating at a given time and provide for rerouting of flights as necessary to resolve traffic conflicts.) The comparisons of flight plans on the forecast to flight plans on the verifying analysis confirm Task 1 findings that wind speeds are generally underestimated. Comparisons involving flight tracking data indicate that actual fuel burn is always higher than planned, in either direction, and even when the same weather data set is used. Since the flight tracking model output results in more diversions than is known to be the case, it was concluded that there is an error in the flight tracking algorithm.

RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

2016-04-01

In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility mapping combined with hydrological, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic flow modeling.

JPSS Products, Applications and Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, J. R.; Connell, B. H.; Miller, S. D.

2017-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is a new generation polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system that will monitor the weather and environment around the globe. JPSS will provide technological and scientific improvements in environmental monitoring via high resolution satellite imagery and derived products that stand to improve weather forecasting capabilities for National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and complement operational Geostationary satellites. JPSS will consist of four satellites, JPSS-1 through JPSS-4, where JPSS-1 is due to launch in Fall 2017. A predecessor, prototype and operational risk-reduction for JPSS is the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, launched on 28 October 2011. The following instruments on-board S-NPP will also be hosted on JPSS-1: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). JPSS-1 instruments will provide satellite imagery, products and applications to users. The applications include detecting water and ice clouds, snow, sea surface temperatures, fog, fire, severe weather, vegetation health, aerosols, and sensing reflected lunar and emitted visible-wavelength light during the nighttime via the Day/Night Band (DNB) sensor included on VIIRS. Currently, there are only a few polar products that are operational for forecasters, however, more products will become available in the near future via Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System-II (AWIPS-II)-a forecasting analysis software package that forecasters can use to analyze meteorological data. To complement the polar products an wealth of training materials are currently in development. Denoted as the Satellite Foundational Course for JPSS (SatFC-J), this training will benefit NWS forecasters to utilize satellite data in their forecasts and daily operations as they discover their operational value in the NWS forecast process. As JPSS-1 launch nears, training materials will be produced in the form of modules, videos, quick guides, fact sheets, and hands-on exercises.

A Multiscale Analysis of Upstream Precursors associated with High Impact Severe Weather Events across the Upper Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metz, N. D.; Cordeira, J. M.

2014-12-01

Between 30 June and 1 July 2011, a heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred over Lake Michigan. A second MCS subsequently occurred over Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin on 1 July 2011 resulting in more than 200 severe weather reports. The antecedent large-scale flow evolution was strongly influenced by early-season tropical cyclones (TCs) Haima and Meari in the western North Pacific. The recurvature and subsequent interaction of these TCs with the extratropical large-scale flow was associated with Rossby wave train (RWT) amplification on 22-26 June 2011 over the western North Pacific and dispersion across North America on 28-30 June 2011. The RWT dispersion was associated with trough (ridge) development over western (central) North America at the time of MCS development over the Midwestern United States. This evolution of the large-scale flow and attendant meso-synoptic scale forcing for ascent were particularly conducive to heavy rainfall and severe weather as a surface-based mixed layer over the Intermountain Western United States was advected eastward, transitioning to an elevated mixed layer (EML) over the Midwestern United States. These two MCSs serve as motivation for a climatology of EML days and their relationship to severe weather over the Midwestern United States. The climatology illustrates that severe weather reports near Minneapolis, MN during the summer are twice as numerous on EML days as compared to normal. The increase in severe weather reports are primarily driven by more large hail and severe wind, which account for 95% of all severe weather reports on EML days. A time-lagged composite analysis indicates that RWT amplification over the central North Pacific and RWT dispersion across the eastern North Pacific and North American, as occurred prior to the 30 June-1 July period, is a common upstream precursor to EML days over the Midwestern United States. These results suggest that investigations of far upstream precursors to RWT amplification and dispersion over the North Pacific may be particularly useful in better understanding warm-season severe weather outbreaks over North America.

A visual analytical approach to rock art panel condition assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Brandon J.

Rock art is a term for pecked, scratched, or painted symbols found on rock surfaces, most typically joint faces called rock art panels. Because rock art exists on rock at the atmosphere interface, it is highly susceptible to the destructive processes of weathering. Thus, rock weathering scientists, including those that study both natural and cultural surfaces, play a key role towards understanding rock art longevity. The mapping of weathering forms on rock art panels serves as a basis from which to assess overall panel instability. This work examines fissures, case hardened surfaces, crumbly disintegration, and lichen. Knowledge of instability, as measured through these and other weathering forms, provides integral information to land managers and archaeological conservators required to prioritize panels for remedial action. The work is divided into five chapters, three of which are going to be submitted as a peer-reviewed journal manuscript. The second chapter, written as a manuscript for International Newsletter on Rock Art, describes a specific set of criteria that lead to the development of a mapping tool for weathering forms, called 'mapping weathering forms in three dimensions' (MapWeF). The third chapter, written as a manuscript for Remote Sensing of Environment, presents the methodology used to develop MapWeF. The chapter incorporates terrestrial laser scanning, a geographic information system (GIS), geovisualization, image analysis, and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to identify, map, and quantify weathering features known to cause instability on rock art panels. The methodology implemented in the third chapter satisfies the criteria described in Chapter Two. In the fourth chapter, prepared as a manuscript for Geomorphology, MapWeF is applied to a site management case study, focusing on a region---southeastern Colorado---with notoriously weak and endangered sandstone rock art panels. The final conclusions chapter describes contributions of the work to GIScience and rock weathering, and discusses how MapWeF, as a diagnostic tool, fits into a larger national vision by linking existing rock art stability characterizations to cultural resource management-related conservation action.

Aviation Weather Information Requirements Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keel, Byron M.; Stancil, Charles E.; Eckert, Clifford A.; Brown, Susan M.; Gimmestad, Gary G.; Richards, Mark A.; Schaffner, Philip R. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has as its goal an improvement in aviation safety by a factor of 5 over the next 10 years and a factor of 10 over the next 20 years. Since weather has a big impact on aviation safety and is associated with 30% of all aviation accidents, Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) is a major element under this program. The Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) Distribution and Presentation project is one of three projects under this element. This report contains the findings of a study conducted by the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) under the Enhanced Weather Products effort, which is a task under AWIN. The study examines current aviation weather products and there application. The study goes on to identify deficiencies in the current system and to define requirements for aviation weather products that would lead to an increase in safety. The study also provides an overview the current set of sensors applied to the collection of aviation weather information. New, modified, or fused sensor systems are identified which could be applied in improving the current set of weather products and in addressing the deficiencies defined in the report. In addition, the study addresses and recommends possible sensors for inclusion in an electronic pilot reporting (EPIREP) system.

A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna

2014-05-01

The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale atmospheric circulation affects the hydroclimate of alpine environments in southeast Australia - allowing recently observed precipitation declines to be placed in the context of a long-term record spanning at least 100 years. This information will provide further insight into the impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change and will ultimately lead to more informed water resource management in the Snowy Mountains.

Space Weathering on Icy Satellites in the Outer Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, R. N.; Perlman, Z.; Pearson, N.; Cruikshank, D. P.

2014-01-01

Space weathering produces well-known optical effects in silicate minerals in the inner Solar System, for example, on the Moon. Space weathering from solar wind and UV (ultraviolet radiation) is expected to be significantly weaker in the outer Solar System simply because intensities are low. However, cosmic rays and micrometeoroid bombardment would be similar to first order. That, combined with the much higher volatility of icy surfaces means there is the potential for space weathering on icy outer Solar System surfaces to show optical effects. The Cassini spacecraft orbiting Saturn is providing evidence for space weathering on icy bodies. The Cassini Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) instrument has spatially mapped satellite surfaces and the rings from 0.35-5 microns and the Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) instrument from 0.1 to 0.2 microns. These data have sampled a complex mixing space between H2O ice and non-ice components and they show some common spectral properties. Similarly, spectra of the icy Galilean satellites and satellites in the Uranian system have some commonality in spectral properties with those in the Saturn system. The UV absorber is spectrally similar on many surfaces. VIMS has identified CO2, H2 and trace organics in varying abundances on Saturn's satellites. We postulate that through the spatial relationships of some of these compounds that they are created and destroyed through space weathering effects. For example, the trapped H2 and CO2 observed by VIMS in regions with high concentrations of dark material may in part be space weathering products from the destruction of H2O and organic molecules. The dark material, particularly on Iapetus which has the highest concentration in the Saturn system, is well matched by space-weathered silicates in the .4 to 2.6 micron range, and the spectral shapes closely match those of the most mature lunar soils, another indicator of space weathered material.

Impact of Probabilistic Weather on Flight Routing Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; Sridhar, Banavar; Mulfinger, Daniel

2006-01-01

Flight delays in the United States have been found to increase year after year, along with the increase in air traffic. During the four-month period from May through August of 2005, weather related delays accounted for roughly 70% of all reported delays, The current weather prediction in tactical (within 2 hours) timeframe is at manageable levels, however, the state of forecasting weather for strategic (2-6 hours) timeframe is still not dependable for long-term planning. In the absence of reliable severe weather forecasts, the decision-making for flights longer than two hours is challenging. This paper deals with an approach of using probabilistic weather prediction for Traffic Flow Management use, and a general method using this prediction for estimating expected values of flight length and delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). The current state-of-the-art convective weather forecasting is employed to aid the decision makers in arriving at decisions for traffic flow and flight planing. The six-agency effort working on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) have considered weather-assimilated decision-making as one of the principal foci out of a list of eight. The weather Integrated Product Team has considered integrated weather information and improved aviation weather forecasts as two of the main efforts (Ref. 1, 2). Recently, research has focused on the concept of operations for strategic traffic flow management (Ref. 3) and how weather data can be integrated for improved decision-making for efficient traffic management initiatives (Ref. 4, 5). An overview of the weather data needs and benefits of various participants in the air traffic system along with available products can be found in Ref. 6. Previous work related to use of weather data in identifying and categorizing pilot intrusions into severe weather regions (Ref. 7, 8) has demonstrated a need for better forecasting in the strategic planning timeframes and moving towards a probabilistic description of weather (Ref. 9). This paper focuses on. specified probability in a local region for flight intrusion/deviation decision-making. The process uses a probabilistic weather description, implements that in a air traffic assessment system to study trajectories of aircraft crossing a cut-off probability contour. This value would be useful for meteorologists in creating optimum distribution profiles for severe weather, Once available, the expected values of flight path and aggregate delays are calculated for efficient operations. The current research, however, does not deal with the issue of multiple cell encounters, as well as echo tops, and will be a topic of future work.

Cross Correlation Analysis to Determine the Environmental Parameters Correlated with Electro-Optical System Performance.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

band, due to higher molecular absorption by water vapor in the 8-12 um band. On the other hand, aerosol extinction may affect the shorter wavelenghts ...precipitation, and aerosol growth . While relative humidity is a LOWTRAN 5 model input, single parameter sensitivity analysis indicates that this fact alone does...M.J., and Vaklyes, D.W., Comparison of Canadian and German Weather, Systems Planning Corporation SPP 566, March 1980. 13. Atwater, M.A., and Ball

Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

2010-12-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPoRT Center, with benefits provided to the operational forecasting community.

Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

2010-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPoRT Center, with benefits provided to the operational forecasting community.

Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Objective local weather types with applications on urban air pollution and on mortality with chronicle illnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mika, Janos; Ivady, Anett; Fulop, Andrea; Makra, László

2010-05-01

Synoptic climatology i.e. classification of the endless variability of the everyday weather states according to the pressure configuration and frontal systems relative to the point, or region of interest has long history in meteorology. Its logical alternative, i.e. classification of weather according to the observed local weather elements was less popular until the recent times when the numerical weather forecasts became able to outline not only the synoptic situation, but the near-surface meteorological variables, as well. Nowadays the computer-based statistical facilities are able to operate with matrices of multivariate diurnal samples, as well. The paper presents an attempt to define a set of local weather types using point-wise series at five rural stations, Szombathely, Pécs, Budapest, Szeged és Debrecen in the 1961-1990 reference period. Ten local variables are used, i.e. the diurnal mean temperature, the diurnal temperature range; the cloudiness, the sunshine duration, the water vapour pressure, the precipitation in a logarithmic scale, also differing trace (below 0.1 mm) and no precipitation, the relative humidity and wind speed, including the more extremity indicators of the two latter parameters, i.e. number of hours with over 80 % relative humidity and over 15 m/s wind gusts. Factor analysis of these ten variables was performed leading to 5 fairly independent variables retained for cluster analysis to obtain the local weather types. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to classify the 840-930 days within each month of the 30 years period. Furthers neighbour approach was preferred based on Euclidean metrics to establish optimum number of types. The 12 months and the 5 stations exhibited slightly different results but the optimum number of the types was always between 4 and 12 which is a quite reasonable number from practical considerations. According to a further reasonable compromise, the common number of the types not too bad in either stations or months defines that the common optimum number of local weather types is nine. This set of weather types, specified for each station, was used to "explain" the possible portion of local inter-diurnal variance of seven daily urban air quality measurements, i.e. CO, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2 and PM10. Another set of data for testing the types are the mortalities with chronicle illnesses, i.e. cardio-vascular and respiratory illnesses. This set of 35 years data (1971-2005) is layered for capital city (Budapest, 2 million inhabitants) and rest of the countries (max. 200 000 inhab.). The use of complex weather types is likely better than the common use of individual weather elements, e.g. diurnal mean temperature or a kind of bioclimatic index. The ability of the types to decrease the variability is also compared for both sets of target variables to the analogous ability of macrosynoptic classification by Peczely. The results are also discussed by grouping the investigated contaminants according to their origin.

Analysis of Correlation between Ionospheric Spatial Gradients and Space Weather Intensity under Nominal Conditions for Ground-Based Augmentation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.

2013-12-01

Ground-Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS) support aircraft precision approach and landing by providing differential GPS corrections to aviation users. For GBAS applications, most of ionospheric errors are removed by applying the differential corrections. However, ionospheric correction errors may exist due to ionosphere spatial decorrelation between GBAS ground facility and users. Thus, the standard deviation of ionosphere spatial decorrelation (σvig) is estimated and included in the computation of error bounds on user position solution. The σvig of 4mm/km, derived for the Conterminous United States (CONUS), bounds one-sigma ionospheric spatial gradients under nominal conditions (including active, but not stormy condition) with an adequate safety margin [1]. The conservatism residing in the current σvig by fixing it to a constant value for all non-stormy conditions could be mitigated by subdividing ionospheric conditions into several classes and using different σvig for each class. This new concept, real-time σvig adaptation, will be possible if the level of ionospheric activity can be well classified based on space weather intensity. This paper studies correlation between the statistics of nominal ionospheric spatial gradients and space weather indices. The analysis was carried out using two sets of data collected from Continuous Operating Reference Station (CORS) Network; 9 consecutive (nominal and ionospherically active) days in 2004 and 19 consecutive (relatively 'quiet') days in 2010. Precise ionospheric delay estimates are obtained using the simplified truth processing method and vertical ionospheric gradients are computed using the well-known 'station pair method' [2]. The remaining biases which include carrier-phase leveling errors and Inter-frequency Bias (IFB) calibration errors are reduced by applying linear slip detection thresholds. The σvig was inflated to overbound the distribution of vertical ionospheric gradients with the required confidence level. Using the daily maximum values of σvig, day-to-day variations of spatial gradients are compared to those of two space weather indices; Disturbance, Storm Time (Dst) index and Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz (IMF Bz). The day-to-day variations of both space weather indices showed a good agreement with those of daily maximum σvig. The results demonstrate that ionospheric gradient statistics are highly correlated with space weather indices on nominal and off-nominal days. Further investigation on this relationship would facilitate prediction of upcoming ionospheric behavior based on space weather information and adjusting σvig in real time. Consequently it will improve GBAS availability by adding external information to operation. [1] Lee, J., S. Pullen, S. Datta-Barua, and P. Enge (2007), Assessment of ionosphere spatial decorrelation for GPS-based aircraft landing systems, J. Aircraft, 44(5), 1662-1669, doi:10.2514/1.28199. [2] Jung, S., and J. Lee (2012), Long-term ionospheric anomaly monitoring for ground based augmentation systems, Radio Sci., 47, RS4006, doi:10.1029/2012RS005016.

Strong Updraft Feature Associated with Hurricane Earl During Landfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Barry C.; Knupp, Kevin R.

2004-01-01

On 2-3 September 1998 hurricane Earl made landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast, east of Panama City, FL. The University of Alabama in Huntsville Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS) was located at the airport in Tallahassee, FL and made measurements of Earl with a 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler as the system moved across the Florida panhandle. As the center of Earl approached MIPS, a particularly strong updraft feature, having a magnitude of approx. 15 m/s within the lowest 3.0 km above ground level was associated with a rain band. An analysis of the changes hurricane Earl underwent as it made landfall are presented. Measurements used include surface thermodynamic and pressure observations, lightning data, National Weather Service Doppler Weather Surveillance Radar (WSR-88D) data, and Geostationary Earth Orbiting Satellite (GOES) data. Then an analysis focusing on the boundary layer properties and the updraft feature's depth, intensity and duration as measured by the MIPS 915 MHz Doppler wind profiler are presented.

BER analysis of SS-WDM based FSO system for Vellore weather conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabu, K.; Charanya, S.; Jain, Mehul; Guha, Debapriya

2017-11-01

Spectrum Slicing Wavelength Division Multiplexing (SS-WDM) has been advanced to boost the long distance communication in FSO channel which assists immense bit rate due to its high capacity and efficiency. It is a substitute to WDM systems having multiple coherent lasers with different wavelengths which is expensive. This paper is subjected to investigate the characteristics and quality of communication links of data rate 1.56 GB/s and wavelength of 1550 nm. The SS-WDM technique has been inspected for 4, 8 and 16 channels to increase the performance of communication under various weather conditions. The proposed model is susceptible to system degradation due to turbulences where wind velocity, refractive index and height of buildings have been majorly focused. A case study has been experimented on how the height of buildings around VIT, Vellore campus interfere the transmission of light in free space. Based on the above study, the results shows that the benefits of spectrum slicing wavelength division multiplexing (SS-WDM) have been worked up on for the climatic conditions which enhance performance of system. Moreover, the graphs plotted against bit error rate (BER), attenuation and distance makes the analysis better which highlights the characteristic features of SS-WDM.

AN overview of the FLYSAFE datalink solution for the exchange of weather information: supporting aircrew decision making processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirza, A.; Drouin, A.

2009-09-01

FLYSAFE is an Integrated Project of the 6th framework of the European Commission with the aim to improve flight safety through the development of an avionics solution the Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System (NGISS), which is supported by a ground based network of Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) and access points in the form of the Ground Weather Processor (GWP). The NGISS provides information to the flight crew on the three major external hazards for aviation: weather, air traffic and terrain. The NGISS has the capability of displaying data about all three hazards on a single display screen, facilitating rapid appreciation of the situation by the flight crew. Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) were developed to provide the NGISS and the flight crew with weather related information on in-flight icing, thunderstorms and clear-air turbulence. These products are generated on the ground from observations and model forecasts. WIMS will supply relevant information on three different scales: global, regional and local (over airport Terminal Manoeuvring Area). The Ground Weather Processor is a client-server architecture that utilises open source components, which include a geospatial database and web feature services. The GWP stores Weather Objects generated by the WIMS. An aviation user can retrieve on-demand all Weather Objects that intersect the volume of space that is of interest to them. The Weather Objects are fused with in-situ observation data and can be used by the flight management system to propose a route to avoid the hazard. In addition they can be used to display the current hazardous weather to the Flight Crew thereby raising their awareness. Within the FLYSAFE program, around 120 hours of flight trials were performed during February 2008 and August 2008. Two aircraft were involved each with separate objectives: - to assess FLYSAFE's innovative solutions for the data-link, on-board data-fusion and data-display and data-updates during flight; - to evaluate the new weather information management systems (in-flight icing and thunderstorms) using in-situ measurements recorded on-board the test aircraft. In this presentation we will focus on the data link solution to uplink the Weather Objects to the NGISS. As part of the solution, a brief description is given on how grid data created by the WIMS are transformed to Weather Objects; which describe the weather hazard and are formatted using the Geospatial Mark-up Language.

Estimating The Rate of Technology Adoption for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kauffmann, Paul; Stough, H. P.

2000-01-01

In February 1997, President Clinton announced a national goal to reduce the weather related fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% in ten years. To support that goal, NASA established an Aviation Weather Information Distribution and Presentation Project to develop technologies that will provide timely and intuitive information to pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers. This information should enable the detection and avoidance of atmospheric hazards and support an improvement in the fatal accident rate related to weather. A critical issue in the success of NASA's weather information program is the rate at which the market place will adopt this new weather information technology. This paper examines that question by developing estimated adoption curves for weather information systems in five critical aviation segments: commercial, commuter, business, general aviation, and rotorcraft. The paper begins with development of general product descriptions. Using this data, key adopters are surveyed and estimates of adoption rates are obtained. These estimates are regressed to develop adoption curves and equations for weather related information systems. The paper demonstrates the use of adoption rate curves in product development and research planning to improve managerial decision processes and resource allocation.

Fuzzy Rule Suram for Wood Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Situmorang, Zakarias

2017-12-01

Implemented of fuzzy rule must used a look-up table as defuzzification analysis. Look-up table is the actuator plant to doing the value of fuzzification. Rule suram based of fuzzy logic with variables of weather is temperature ambient and humidity ambient, it implemented for wood drying process. The membership function of variable of state represented in error value and change error with typical map of triangle and map of trapezium. Result of analysis to reach 4 fuzzy rule in 81 conditions to control the output system can be constructed in a number of way of weather and conditions of air. It used to minimum of the consumption of electric energy by heater. One cycle of schedule drying is a serial of condition of chamber to process as use as a wood species.

Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions.

PubMed

Teklehaimanot, Hailay D; Schwartz, Joel; Teklehaimanot, Awash; Lipsitch, Marc

2004-11-19

Timely and accurate information about the onset of malaria epidemics is essential for effective control activities in epidemic-prone regions. Early warning methods that provide earlier alerts (usually by the use of weather variables) may permit control measures to interrupt transmission earlier in the epidemic, perhaps at the expense of some level of accuracy. Expected case numbers were modeled using a Poisson regression with lagged weather factors in a 4th-degree polynomial distributed lag model. For each week, the numbers of malaria cases were predicted using coefficients obtained using all years except that for which the prediction was being made. The effectiveness of alerts generated by the prediction system was compared against that of alerts based on observed cases. The usefulness of the prediction system was evaluated in cold and hot districts. The system predicts the overall pattern of cases well, yet underestimates the height of the largest peaks. Relative to alerts triggered by observed cases, the alerts triggered by the predicted number of cases performed slightly worse, within 5% of the detection system. The prediction-based alerts were able to prevent 10-25% more cases at a given sensitivity in cold districts than in hot ones. The prediction of malaria cases using lagged weather performed well in identifying periods of increased malaria cases. Weather-derived predictions identified epidemics with reasonable accuracy and better timeliness than early detection systems; therefore, the prediction of malarial epidemics using weather is a plausible alternative to early detection systems.

Joint Precision Approach and Landing System Nunn-McCurdy Breach Root Cause Analysis and Portfolio Assessment Metrics for DoD Weapons Systems. Volume 8

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

system that would help in adverse weather conditions. U.S. operations in Bosnia, which were run from a relatively austere airfield with limited air... operations beginning in 2013 (CVN21, Joint Strike Fighter, Joint Unmanned Combat Air System ). cAccording to multiple FAA ofcial planning documents...Positioning System Next Generation Operational Control System HMS Handheld, Manpack and Small Form Fit HUD Head up Display IAMD Integrated Air and

Integration of weather information in transportation management center operations : self-evaluation and planning guide

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-30

The Federal Highway Administrations Road Weather Management Program is helping to reduce the adverse impacts of weather on the transportation system by assisting agencies in integrating weather information and technologies into their daily Transpo...

South Dakota Department of Transportation (SDDOT) regional traveler information system for weather responsive traffic management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

FHWAs Road Weather Management Program partnered with the South Dakota DOT to develop and implement a Weather Responsive Traffic Management (WRTM) strategy that involves mobile data collection and traveler information dissemination during weather e...

Material selection and evaluation of new encapsulation compounds for electric cables for launch support system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Asit K.

1992-01-01

Eight urethane compounds were evaluated as possible replacement for the existing encapsulating compoounds for electrical cables for the Launch Support System at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The existing encapsulating compound, PR-1535, contains the curative MOCA 4-4'-Methylene-BIS (2-chloroaniline), which is a suspect carcinogen and hence may be the subject of further restrictions of its use by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). The samples made in the configuration of cable joints and in the form of disks were evaluated for flammability and hypergolic compatibility. These also underwent accelerated weatherability tests that measured the residual hardness of the exposed samples. Three candidates and the existing compound passed the hardness test. Of these, only one candidate and the existing compound passed the flammability test. The thermal and hydrolytic stability (weatherability) of these samples was studied using thermogravimetric analysis (DSC) techniques. The TMA and DSC data correlated with the residual hardness data; whereas, the TGA data showed no correlation. A hypergolic compatibility test will be conducted on the compound V-356-HE80, which passed both the flammability and accelerated weatherability tests.

The Design Implementation of an Operational, Computer Based Weather Radar System,

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-01-01

AN OPERATIONAL, COMPUTER-BASED WEATHER RADAR SYSTEM Authors: A P Ball, J L Clarke, M J O’Brien A H Shaw , S E Trigg and T A Voller ’Original contains...A ’Ball, J L/Clarke, MJ/O’Brien A H , Shaw , S E Trigg and T A Voller SUMMARY Inis memorand,,m describes the work of the RSRE Weather Radar Division in...IMPLEMENTATION OF AN OPERATIONAL, COMPUTER BASED WEATHER RADAR SYSTEM A P Ball, J L Clarke, M J O’Brien, A H Shaw , S E Trigg and T A Voller CONTENTS 1

Cockpit weather information needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along the route can be accomplished prior to pilot acceptance of the clearance. An ongoing multiphase test series is planned for testing and modifying the graphical weather system. Preliminary data shows that the nine test subjects considered the graphical presentation to be much better than their current weather information source for situation awareness, flight safety, and reroute decision making.

Impact of Ozone Radiative Feedbacks on Global Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, I.; de Grandpré, J.; Rochon, Y. J.; Sitwell, M.

2017-12-01

A coupled Chemical Data Assimilation system for ozone is being developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) with the goals to improve the forecasting of UV index and the forecasting of air quality with the Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) Model for Air quality and Chemistry (MACH). Furthermore, this system provides an opportunity to evaluate the benefit of ozone assimilation for improving weather forecasting with the ECCC Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The present UV index forecasting system uses a statistical approach for evaluating the impact of ozone in clear-sky and cloudy conditions, and the use of real-time ozone analysis and ozone forecasts is highly desirable. Improving air quality forecasting with GEM-MACH further necessitates the development of integrated dynamical-chemical assimilation system. Upon its completion, real-time ozone analysis and ozone forecasts will also be available for piloting the regional air quality system, and for the computation of ozone heating rates, in replacement of the monthly mean ozone distribution currently used in the GDPS. Experiments with ozone radiative feedbacks were run with the GDPS at 25km resolution and 84 levels with a lid at 0.1 hPa and were initialized with ozone analysis that has assimilated total ozone column from OMI, OMPS, and GOME satellite instruments. The results show that the use of prognostic ozone for the computation of the heating/cooling rates has a significant impact on the temperature distribution throughout the stratosphere and upper troposphere regions. The impact of ozone assimilation is especially significant in the tropopause region, where ozone heating in the infrared wavelengths is important and ozone lifetime is relatively long. The implementation of the ozone radiative feedback in the GDPS requires addressing various issues related to model biases (temperature and humidity) and biases in equilibrium state (ozone mixing ratio, air temperature and overhead column ozone) used for the calculation of the linearized photochemical production and loss of ozone. Furthermore the radiative budget in the tropopause region is strongly affected by water vapor cooling, which impact requires further evaluation for the use in chemically coupled operational NWP systems.

Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plavcová, Eva; Kyselý, Jan

2014-08-01

Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994-2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.

Real-time analysis application for identifying bursty local areas related to emergency topics.

PubMed

Sakai, Tatsuhiro; Tamura, Keiichi

2015-01-01

Since social media started getting more attention from users on the Internet, social media has been one of the most important information source in the world. Especially, with the increasing popularity of social media, data posted on social media sites are rapidly becoming collective intelligence, which is a term used to refer to new media that is displacing traditional media. In this paper, we focus on geotagged tweets on the Twitter site. These geotagged tweets are referred to as georeferenced documents because they include not only a short text message, but also the documents' posting time and location. Many researchers have been tackling the development of new data mining techniques for georeferenced documents to identify and analyze emergency topics, such as natural disasters, weather, diseases, and other incidents. In particular, the utilization of geotagged tweets to identify and analyze natural disasters has received much attention from administrative agencies recently because some case studies have achieved compelling results. In this paper, we propose a novel real-time analysis application for identifying bursty local areas related to emergency topics. The aim of our new application is to provide new platforms that can identify and analyze the localities of emergency topics. The proposed application is composed of three core computational intelligence techniques: the Naive Bayes classifier technique, the spatiotemporal clustering technique, and the burst detection technique. Moreover, we have implemented two types of application interface: a Web application interface and an android application interface. To evaluate the proposed application, we have implemented a real-time weather observation system embedded the proposed application. we used actual crawling geotagged tweets posted on the Twitter site. The weather observation system successfully detected bursty local areas related to observed emergency weather topics.

Modern and prospective technologies for weather modification activities: A look at integrating unmanned aircraft systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axisa, Duncan; DeFelice, Tom P.

2016-09-01

Present-day weather modification technologies are scientifically based and have made controlled technological advances since the late 1990s, early 2000s. The technological advances directly related to weather modification have primarily been in the decision support and evaluation based software and modeling areas. However, there have been some technological advances in other fields that might now be advanced enough to start considering their usefulness for improving weather modification operational efficiency and evaluation accuracy. We consider the programmatic aspects underlying the development of new technologies for use in weather modification activities, identifying their potential benefits and limitations. We provide context and initial guidance for operators that might integrate unmanned aircraft systems technology in future weather modification operations.

Systems Study of an Automated Fire Weather Data System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nishioka, K.

1974-01-01

A sensor system applicable to an automated weather station was developed. The sensor provides automated fire weather data which correlates with manual readings. The equipment and methods are applied as an aid to the surveillance and protection of wildlands from fire damage. The continuous readings provided by the sensor system make it possible to determine the periods of time that the wilderness areas should be closed to the public to minimize the possibilities of fire.

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalia, Prince; Shi, Ying; Pair, Robin; Quaney, Virginia; Uhlenbrock, John

2013-01-01

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gawor, J.

2012-04-01

Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why are some weather elements easier to verify than others? 5) What factors may contribute to the quality of the weather forecast?

Quantifying Heterogeneities in Soil Cover and Weathering in the Bitterroot and Sapphire Mountains, Montana: Implications for Glacial Legacies and their Morphologic Control on Soil Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjaram, S. S.; Dixon, J. L.

2017-12-01

To what extent is chemical weathering governed by a landscape's topography? Quantifying chemical weathering in both steep rocky landscapes and soil-mantled landscapes requires describing heterogeneity in soil and rock cover at local and landscape scales. Two neighboring mountain ranges in the northern Rockies of western Montana, USA, provide an ideal natural laboratory in which to investigate the relationship between soil chemical weathering, persistence of soil cover, and topography. We focus our work in the previously glaciated Bitterroot Mountains, which consist of steep, rock-dominated hillslopes, and the neighboring unglaciated Sapphire Mountains, which display convex, soil-mantled hillslopes. Soil thickness measurements, soil and rock geochemistry, and digital terrain analysis reveal that soils in the rock-dominated Bitterroot Mountains are only slightly less weathered than those in the Sapphire Mountains. However, these differences are magnified when adjusted for rock fragments at a local scale and bedrock cover at a landscape scale, using our newly developed metric, the rock-adjusted chemical depletion fraction (RACDF) and rock-adjusted mass transfer coefficient (RA τ). The Bitterroots overall are 30% less weathered than the Sapphires despite higher mean annual precipitation in the former, with an average rock-adjusted CDF of 0.38 in the postglacial Bitterroots catchment and 0.61 in the nonglacial Sapphire catchment, suggesting that 38% of rock mass is lost in the conversion to soil in the Bitterroots, whereas 61% of rock mass is lost in the nonglaciated Sapphires. Because the previously glaciated Bitterroots are less weathered despite being wetter, we conclude that the glacial history of this landscape exerts more influence on soil chemical weathering than does modern climate. However, while previous studies have correlated weathering intensity with topographic parameters such as slope gradient, we find little topographic indication of specific controls on weathering in these complex systems.

Longitudinal Study of the Market Penetration of Cockpit Weather Information Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stough, Harry Paul, III; Sireli, Yesim; Ozan, Erol; Kauffmann, Paul

2005-01-01

The purpose of the longitudinal research of the market penetration of cockpit weather information systems (CWIS) is to contribute to the body of knowledge on modeling advanced technology feasibility in aviation by tracking and analyzing the market adoption of CWIS over a three year period. This research takes advantage of a previous study, conducted by Dr. Paul Kauffmann in 2000, which demonstrated an integrated and cost effective approach to evaluate advanced technology feasibility, examining the feasibility of CWIS in five market segments: transport, commuter, general aviation, business, and rotorcraft. The longitudinal research consists of two consecutive studies and produced two reports. The first report was submitted in August 2003 and included general market analysis about the CWIS products in the market at the time, identified their characteristics and examined developing market dynamics.

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

2010-01-01

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Synoptic weather typing applied to air pollution mortality among the elderly in 10 Canadian cities.

PubMed

Vanos, Jennifer K; Cakmak, Sabit; Bristow, Corben; Brion, Vladislav; Tremblay, Neil; Martin, Sara L; Sheridan, Scott S

2013-10-01

Synoptic circulation patterns (large-scale weather systems) affect ambient levels of air pollution, as well as the relationship between air pollution and human health. To investigate the air pollution-mortality relationship within weather types and seasons, and to determine which combination of atmospheric conditions may pose increased health threats in the elderly age categories. The relative risk of mortality (RR) due to air pollution was examined using Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs) within specific weather types. Analysis was completed by weather type and age group (all ages, ≤64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years) in ten Canadian cities from 1981 to 1999. There was significant modification of RR by weather type and age. When examining the entire population, weather type was shown to have the greatest modifying effect on the risk of dying due to ozone (O3). This effect was highest on average for the dry tropical (DT) weather type, with the all-age RR of mortality at a population weighted mean (PWM) found to be 1.055 (95% CI 1.026-1.085). All-weather type risk estimates increased with age due to exposure to carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulphur dioxide (SO2). On average, RR increased by 2.6, 3.8 and 1.5% for the respective pollutants between the ≤64 and ≥85 age categories. Conversely, mean ozone estimates remained relatively consistent with age. Elevated levels of air pollution were found to be detrimental to the health of elderly individuals for all weather types. However, the entire population was negatively effected by air pollution on the hot dry (DT) and hot humid (MT) days. We identified a significant modification of RR for mortality due to air pollution by age, which is enhanced under specific weather types. Efforts should be targeted at minimizing pollutant exposure to the elderly and/or all age groups with respect to weather type in question. Crown Copyright © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Caltrans WeatherShare Phase II System: An Application of Systems and Software Engineering Process to Project Development

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-25

In cooperation with the California Department of Transportation, Montana State University's Western Transportation Institute has developed the WeatherShare Phase II system by applying Systems Engineering and Software Engineering processes. The system...

Cloudy with a Chance of Solar Flares: The Sun as a Natural Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan

2017-01-01

Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that represents a quantifiable risk to space- and ground-based infrastructure as well as society at large. Space weather hazards include permanent and correctable faults in computer systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-frequency communication disturbances, increased airline passenger and astronaut radiation exposure, and electric grid disruption. From the National Space Weather Strategy, published by the Office of Science and Technology Policy in October 2015, space weather refers to the dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the Sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections. These emissions can interact with Earth and its surrounding space, including the Earth's magnetic field, potentially disrupting technologies and infrastructures. Space weather is measured using a range of space- and ground-based platforms that directly monitor the Sun, the Earth's magnetic field, the conditions in interplanetary space and impacts at Earth's surface, like neutron ground-level enhancement. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Research Center and their international collaborators in government, industry, and academia are working towards improved techniques for predicting space weather as part of the strategy and action plan to better quantify and mitigate space weather hazards. In addition to accurately measuring and predicting space weather, we also need to continue developing more advanced techniques for evaluating space weather impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructure. Within the Earth's atmosphere, elevated neutron flux driven by atmosphere-particle interactions from space weather is a primary risk source. Ground-based neutron sources form an essential foundation for quantifying space weather impacts in a variety of systems.

The Tracking Meteogram, an AWIPS II Tool for Time-Series Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burks, Jason Eric; Sperow, Ken

2015-01-01

A new tool has been developed for the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) II through collaboration between NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) and the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL). Referred to as the "Tracking Meteogram", the tool aids NWS forecasters in assessing meteorological parameters associated with moving phenomena. The tool aids forecasters in severe weather situations by providing valuable satellite and radar derived trends such as cloud top cooling rates, radial velocity couplets, reflectivity, and information from ground-based lightning networks. The Tracking Meteogram tool also aids in synoptic and mesoscale analysis by tracking parameters such as the deepening of surface low pressure systems, changes in surface or upper air temperature, and other properties. The tool provides a valuable new functionality and demonstrates the flexibility and extensibility of the NWS AWIPS II architecture. In 2014, the operational impact of the tool was formally evaluated through participation in the NOAA/NWS Operations Proving Ground (OPG), a risk reduction activity to assess performance and operational impact of new forecasting concepts, tools, and applications. Performance of the Tracking Meteogram Tool during the OPG assessment confirmed that it will be a valuable asset to the operational forecasters. This presentation reviews development of the Tracking Meteogram tool, performance and feedback acquired during the OPG activity, and future goals for continued support and extension to other application areas.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Large-Scale, Extratropical Weather Systems within Mars' Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2013-04-01

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature variation supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. Such disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean midlatitude jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, the weather disturbances indicated large-scale spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo-/fronto-genesis. The weather systems occur during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances are significantly more intense than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). And regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this particular atmospheric aerosol. In this paper, a brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by a short review of the theory and various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and full global circulation modeling investigations) which have been pursued. Finally, a discussion of outstanding issues and questions regarding the character and nature of Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems is offered.

Large-Scale Extratropical Weather Systems in Mars' Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2013-01-01

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature variation supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. Such disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean midlatitude jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, the weather disturbances indicated large-scale spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo-/fronto-genesis. The weather systems occur during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances are significantly more intense than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). And regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this particular atmospheric aerosol. In this paper, a brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by a short review of the theory and various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and full global circulation modeling investigations) which have been pursued. Finally, a discussion of outstanding issues and questions regarding the character and nature of Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems is offered.

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) to Advance National Weather Service Predictions for Weeks 3-4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariotti, A.; Barrie, D.; Archambault, H. M.

2017-12-01

There is great practical interest in developing skillful predictions of extremes for lead times extending beyond the two-week theoretical predictability skill barrier for weather forecasts to the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scale. The processes and phenomena specific to S2S are posited to require a unified approach to science, modeling, and predictions that draws expertise from both the weather and climate/seasonal communities. Based on this premise, in 2016, the NOAA Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, in partnership with the National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology Integration, launched a major research and transition initiative to meet NOAA's emerging research and transition needs for developing skillful S2S predictions. A major component of this initiative is an experiment to test single- and multi-model ensembles for subseasonal prediction, called the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX). SubX, which engages six modeling groups, is producing real time experimental forecasts based on weather, climate, and Earth system models for weeks 3-4. The project investigators are evaluating, testing, and optimizing this system, and the hindcast and real time forecast data are available to the broad community. SubX research is targeted at a number of important decision-making contexts including drought and extremes, as well as the broad variety of phenomena that are meaningful at subseasonal timescales (e.g., MJO, ENSO, stratosphere/troposphere coupling, etc.). This presentation will discuss the design and status of SubX in the broader context of MAPP program S2S prediction research.

A mathematical analysis of the Janus combat simulation weather effects models and sensitivity analysis of sky-to-ground brightness ratio on target detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shorts, Vincient F.

1994-09-01

The Janus combat simulation offers the user a wide variety of weather effects options to employ during the execution of any simulation run, which can directly influence detection of opposing forces. Realistic weather effects are required if the simulation is to accurately reproduce 'real world' results. This thesis examines the mathematics of the Janus weather effects models. A weather effect option in Janus is the sky-to-ground brightness ratio (SGR). SGR affects an optical sensor's ability to detect targets. It is a measure of the sun angle in relation to the horizon. A review of the derivation of SGR is performed and an analysis of SGR's affect on the number of optical detections and detection ranges is performed using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) search scenario. For comparison, the UAV's are equipped with a combination of optical and thermal sensors.

Diagnostic Analysis of Ozone Concentrations Simulated by Two Regional-Scale Air Quality Models

EPA Science Inventory

Since the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF/Chem) use different approaches to simulate the interaction of meteorology and chemistry, this study compares the CMAQ and WRF/Chem air quality simu...

The Analysis, Numerical Simulation, and Diagnosis of Extratropical Weather Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-09-30

MRY) and I developed a collaboration with the NRL/SSMIS Lower-Atmospheric Sounding Capability program; Gene Poe (NRL, Team Leader). The effort is...Geophysical Society Annual Meeting (Nice, Fance ; April 2000), the Extratropical Cyclone Workshop (Monterey, CA; Sept. 2000), and in seminars at NCAR

Research Opportunities from Emerging Atmospheric Observing and Modeling Capabilities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabberdt, Walter F.; Schlatter, Thomas W.

1996-02-01

The Second Prospectus Development Team (PDT-2) of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged with identifying research opportunities that are best matched to emerging operational and experimental measurement and modeling methods. The overarching recommendation of PDT-2 is that inputs for weather forecast models can best be obtained through the use of composite observing systems together with adaptive (or targeted) observing strategies employing both in situ and remote sensing. Optimal observing systems and strategies are best determined through a three-part process: observing system simulation experiments, pilot field measurement programs, and model-assisted data sensitivity experiments. Furthermore, the mesoscale research community needs easy and timely access to the new operational and research datasets in a form that can readily be reformatted into existing software packages for analysis and display. The value of these data is diminished to the extent that they remain inaccessible.The composite observing system of the future must combine synoptic observations, routine mobile observations, and targeted observations, as the current or forecast situation dictates. High costs demand fuller exploitation of commercial aircraft, meteorological and navigation [Global Positioning System (GPS)] satellites, and Doppler radar. Single observing systems must be assessed in the context of a composite system that provides complementary information. Maintenance of the current North American rawinsonde network is critical for progress in both research-oriented and operational weather forecasting.Adaptive sampling strategies are designed to improve large-scale and regional weather prediction but they will also improve diagnosis and prediction of flash flooding, air pollution, forest fire management, and other environmental emergencies. Adaptive measurements can be made by piloted or unpiloted aircraft. Rawinsondes can be launched and satellites can be programmed to make adaptive observations at special times or in specific regions. PDT-2 specifically recommends the following forms of data gathering: a pilot field and modeling study should be designed and executed to assess the benefit of adaptive observations over the eastern Pacific for mesoscale forecasts over the contiguous United

An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Based Nowcasting System: Software Description

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

14. ABSTRACT A Web service /Web interface software package has been engineered to address the need for an automated means to run the Weather Research...An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Based Nowcasting System: Software Description by Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and...Based Nowcasting System: Software Description Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and Robert E. Dumais Jr. Computational and Information Sciences

Issues Involved in the Development of an Open Standard for Data Link of Aviation Weather Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grappel, R. D.

2000-01-01

This paper describes how an effective and efficient data link system for the dissemination of aviation weather information could be constructed. The system is built upon existing 'open standard' foundations drawn from current aviation and computer technologies. Issues of communications protocols and application data formats are discussed. The proposed aviation weather data link system is dependent of the actual link mechanism selected.

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 2: The SEASAT system description and performance. [performance prediction and systems analysis for seasat satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Results are presented of preliminary trade-off studies of operational SEASAT systems. The trade-off studies were used as the basis for the estimation of costs and net benefits of the operational SEASAT system. Also presented are the preliminary results of simulation studies that were designed to lead to a measure of the impact of SEASAT data through the use of numerical weather forecast models.

Impact of variational assimilation using multivariate background error covariances on the simulation of monsoon depressions over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhanya, M.; Chandrasekar, A.

2016-02-01

The background error covariance structure influences a variational data assimilation system immensely. The simulation of a weather phenomenon like monsoon depression can hence be influenced by the background correlation information used in the analysis formulation. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model Data assimilation (WRFDA) system includes an option for formulating multivariate background correlations for its three-dimensional variational (3DVar) system (cv6 option). The impact of using such a formulation in the simulation of three monsoon depressions over India is investigated in this study. Analysis and forecast fields generated using this option are compared with those obtained using the default formulation for regional background error correlations (cv5) in WRFDA and with a base run without any assimilation. The model rainfall forecasts are compared with rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and the other model forecast fields are compared with a high-resolution analysis as well as with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis. The results of the study indicate that inclusion of additional correlation information in background error statistics has a moderate impact on the vertical profiles of relative humidity, moisture convergence, horizontal divergence and the temperature structure at the depression centre at the analysis time of the cv5/cv6 sensitivity experiments. Moderate improvements are seen in two of the three depressions investigated in this study. An improved thermodynamic and moisture structure at the initial time is expected to provide for improved rainfall simulation. The results of the study indicate that the skill scores of accumulated rainfall are somewhat better for the cv6 option as compared to the cv5 option for at least two of the three depression cases studied, especially at the higher threshold levels. Considering the importance of utilising improved flow-dependent correlation structures for efficient data assimilation, the need for more studies on the impact of background error covariances is obvious.

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

Evaluating impacts of different longitudinal driver assistance systems on reducing multi-vehicle rear-end crashes during small-scale inclement weather.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Xing, Lu; Wang, Wei; Wang, Hao; Dong, Changyin; Liu, Shanwen

2017-10-01

Multi-vehicle rear-end (MVRE) crashes during small-scale inclement (SSI) weather cause high fatality rates on freeways, which cannot be solved by traditional speed limit strategies. This study aimed to reduce MVRE crash risks during SSI weather using different longitudinal driver assistance systems (LDAS). The impact factors on MVRE crashes during SSI weather were firstly analyzed. Then, four LDAS, including Forward collision warning (FCW), Autonomous emergency braking (AEB), Adaptive cruise control (ACC) and Cooperative ACC (CACC), were modeled based on a unified platform, the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM). Simulation experiments were designed and a large number of simulations were then conducted to evaluate safety effects of different LDAS. Results indicate that the FCW and ACC system have poor performance on reducing MVRE crashes during SSI weather. The slight improvement of sight distance of FCW and the limitation of perception-reaction time of ACC lead the failure of avoiding MVRE crashes in most scenarios. The AEB system has the better effect due to automatic perception and reaction, as well as performing the full brake when encountering SSI weather. The CACC system has the best performance because wireless communication provides a larger sight distance and a shorter time delay at the sub-second level. Sensitivity analyses also indicated that the larger number of vehicles and speed changes after encountering SSI weather have negative impacts on safety performances. Results of this study provide useful information for accident prevention during SSI weather. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Information for the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J.; Miner, C.; Pace, D.; Minnis, P.; Mecikalski, J.; Feltz, W.; Johnson, D.; Iskendarian, H.; Haynes, J.

2009-09-01

It is estimated that weather is responsible for approximately 70% of all air traffic delays and cancellations in the United States. Annually, this produces an overall economic loss of nearly 40B. The FAA and NASA have determined that weather impacts and other environmental constraints on the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) will increase to the point of system unsustainability unless the NAS is radically transformed. A Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is planned to accommodate the anticipated demand for increased system capacity and the super-density operations that this transformation will entail. The heart of the environmental information component that is being developed for NextGen will be a 4-dimensional data cube which will include a single authoritative source comprising probabilistic weather information for NextGen Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems. Aviation weather constraints and safety hazards typically comprise meso-scale, storm-scale and microscale observables that can significantly impact both terminal and enroute aviation operations. With these operational impacts in mind, functional and performance requirements for the NextGen weather system were established which require significant improvements in observation and forecasting capabilities. This will include satellite observations from geostationary and/or polar-orbiting hyperspectral sounders, multi-spectral imagers, lightning mappers, space weather monitors and other environmental observing systems. It will also require improved in situ and remotely sensed observations from ground-based and airborne systems. These observations will be used to better understand and to develop forecasting applications for convective weather, in-flight icing, turbulence, ceilings and visibility, volcanic ash, space weather and the environmental impacts of aviation. Cutting-edge collaborative research efforts and results from NASA, NOAA and the FAA which address these phenomena are summarized. In 2003, a Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) was established by public law to meet the significant challenges that NextGen presents. JPDO partners were chartered which include, but are not limited to, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Defense (DOD) and broad elements of academia and the aviation industry. This paper provides the aviation meteorology community with useful insight on salient NextGen environmental information requirements that have been developed by the JPDO Weather Working Group's Environmental Information Team. These efforts will help to define observation and forecast systems needed to support NextGen and to develop the operational applications for NextGen aviation weather information. Another major goal of this paper is to inform the international weather community of our research progress and plans for NextGen, to foster research collaboration with our colleagues, and to exchange information to maximize success of NextGen, SESAR and related initiatives world-wide.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Perspectives of weather and sensitivities to heat: Social media applications for cultural climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, Bradley J.

This dissertation explores the cultural significance and physical perception of heat evident in a corpus of Twitter messages collected for six cities across the US over a seven-week period following historic heat events in the summer of 2012. Through a mixed-methods analysis of what weather means and how it feels, emergent conceptual tools are put forth that seek to envisage weather and society as co-productive, and sometimes indistinguishable, elements in a broader ecological process of world formation. Following a review of concepts from literature on everyday interactions with weather, the dissertation proceeds with two analytical chapters. The first analysis is textual and focuses on 'weather typing' as a discursive practice that works to produce abstract spaces with, of, and for weather through the conceptual distancing of the environment from the body. These practices are considered constitutive of situated perspectives of weather, many of which show a latent influence of heat, be it in the form of shared bodily energy or as an ambient environmental factor. The second analysis quantitatively explores emotional and physiological sensitivities to heat through transforming textual indicators into metrics that can be meaningfully tracked over time alongside biometeorological constructs, particularly with apparent temperature. Each analysis is intended to open the study of weather to multiple lines of inquiry across different scales while remaining rooted in empirical observation. The conclusion of the dissertation is left open as a discussion on further uses of these concepts and analytical strategies in hopes that they may find uses in different contexts, with different data sources, and through a variety of theoretical lenses.

Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

2014-01-01

A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

Reduction of Weather-Related Terminal Area Delays in the Free-Flight Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Sally C.; Chin, David K.; Rovinsky, Robert B.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Lee, David A.; Hemm, Robert V.; Wingrove, Earl R., III

1996-01-01

While much of the emphasis of the free-flight movement has been concentrated on reducing en-route delays, airport capacity is a major bottleneck in the current airspace system, particularly during bad weather. According to the Air Transport Association (ATA) Air Carrier Delay Reports, ground delays (gate-hold, taxi-in, and taxi-out) comprise 75 percent of total delays. It is likely that the projected steady growth in traffic will only exacerbate these losses. Preliminary analyses show that implementation of the terminal area technologies and procedures under development in NASA s Terminal Area Productivity program can potentially save the airlines at least $350M annually in weather-related delays by the year 2005 at Boston Logan and Detroit airports alone. This paper briefly describes the Terminal Area Productivity program, outlines the costhenefit analyses that are being conducted in support of the program, and presents some preliminary analysis results.

Great Lakes Maps - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Coastal Forecast System) Waves (GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System) Ice Cover (GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System) NOAA's National Weather Service Central Region Headquarters Regional Office 7220

Earth Observation Services Weather Imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

Microprocessor-based systems for processing satellite data offer mariners real-time images of weather systems, day and night, of large areas or allow them to zoom in on a few square miles. Systems West markets these commercial image processing systems, which have significantly decreased the cost of satellite weather stations. The company was assisted by the EOCAP program, which provides government co-funding to encourage private investment in, and to broaden the use of, NASA-developed technology for analyzing information about Earth and ocean resources.

Does the Weather Really Matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burroughs, William James

1997-09-01

We talk about it endlessly, write about it copiously, and predict it badly. It influences what we do, what we wear, and how we live. Weather--how does it really impact our lives? In this compelling look at weather, author Burroughs combines historical perspective and economic and political analysis to give the impact of weather and climate change relevance and weight. He examines whether the frequency of extreme events is changing and the consequences of these changes. He looks at the chaotic nature of the climate and how this unpredictability can impose serious limits on how we plan for the future. Finally, he poses the important question: what types of serious, even less predictable changes are around the corner? In balanced and accessible prose, Burroughs works these issues into lucid analysis. This refreshing and insightful look at the impact of weather will appeal to anyone who has ever worried about forgetting an umbrella. William James Burroughs is the author of Watching the World's Weather (CUP, 1991) and Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary? (CUP, 1994).

Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments.

PubMed

Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy

2016-12-01

A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venners, Jason; Schroeder, Richard; Checchi, Milton; Zavodsky, Bradley; Limaye, Ashutosh; O'Brien, Raymond

2015-01-01

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud-computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high-performance computing environments, supporting multi-node systems required for near real-time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on-demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on-demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre-compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF-EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher-resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity-building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real-time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather-related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pullkkinen, A.

2011-01-01

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

CFDP Performance over Weather-dependent Ka-band Channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sung, I. U.; Gao, Jay L.

2006-01-01

This study presents an analysis of the delay performance of the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) over weather-dependent Ka-band channel. The Ka-band channel condition is determined by the strength of the atmospheric noise temperature, which is weather dependent. Noise temperature data collected from the Deep Space Network (DSN) Madrid site is used to characterize the correlations between good and bad channel states in a two-state Markov model. Specifically, the probability distribution of file delivery latency using the CFDP deferred Negative Acknowledgement (NAK) mode is derived and quantified. Deep space communication scenarios with different file sizes and bit error rates (BERs) are studied and compared. Furthermore, we also examine the sensitivity of our analysis with respect to different data sampling methods. Our analysis shows that while the weather-dependent channel only results in fairly small increases in the average number of CFDP retransmissions required, the maximum number of transmissions required to complete 99 percentile, on the other hand, is significantly larger for the weather-dependent channel due to the significant correlation of poor weather states.

CFDP Performance over Weather-Dependent Ka-Band Channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

U, Sung I.; Gao, Jay L.

2006-01-01

This study presents an analysis of the delay performance of the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) over weather-dependent Ka-band channel. The Ka-band channel condition is determined by the strength of the atmospheric noise temperature, which is weather dependent. Noise temperature data collected from the Deep Space Network (DSN) Madrid site is used to characterize the correlations between good and bad channel states in a two-state Markov model. Specifically, the probability distribution of file delivery latency using the CFDP deferred Negative Acknowledgement (NAK) mode is derived and quantified. Deep space communication scenarios with different file sizes and bit error rates (BERs) are studied and compared. Furthermore, we also examine the sensitivity of our analysis with respect to different data sampling methods. Our analysis shows that while the weather-dependent channel only results in fairly small increases in the average number of CFDP retransmissions required, the maximum number of transmissions required to complete 99 percentile, on the other hand, is significantly larger for the weather-dependent channel due to the significant correlation of poor weather states.

Day, night and all-weather security surveillance automation synergy from combining two powerful technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morellas, Vassilios; Johnson, Andrew; Johnston, Chris

2006-07-01

Thermal imaging is rightfully a real-world technology proven to bring confidence to daytime, night-time and all weather security surveillance. Automatic image processing intrusion detection algorithms are also a real world technology proven to bring confidence to system surveillance security solutions. Together, day, night and all weather video imagery sensors and automated intrusion detection software systems create the real power to protect early against crime, providing real-time global homeland protection, rather than simply being able to monitor and record activities for post event analysis. These solutions, whether providing automatic security system surveillance at airports (to automatically detect unauthorized aircraft takeoff andmore » landing activities) or at high risk private, public or government facilities (to automatically detect unauthorized people or vehicle intrusion activities) are on the move to provide end users the power to protect people, capital equipment and intellectual property against acts of vandalism and terrorism. As with any technology, infrared sensors and automatic image intrusion detection systems for global homeland security protection have clear technological strengths and limitations compared to other more common day and night vision technologies or more traditional manual man-in-the-loop intrusion detection security systems. This paper addresses these strength and limitation capabilities. False Alarm (FAR) and False Positive Rate (FPR) is an example of some of the key customer system acceptability metrics and Noise Equivalent Temperature Difference (NETD) and Minimum Resolvable Temperature are examples of some of the sensor level performance acceptability metrics. (authors)« less

Nowcasting for a high-resolution weather radar network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzanski, Evan

Short-term prediction (nowcasting) of high-impact weather events can lead to significant improvement in warnings and advisories and is of great practical importance. Nowcasting using weather radar reflectivity data has been shown to be particularly useful. The Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) radar network provides high-resolution reflectivity data amenable to producing valuable nowcasts. The high-resolution nature of CASA data requires the use of an efficient nowcasting approach, which necessitated the development of the Dynamic Adaptive Radar Tracking of Storms (DARTS) and sinc kernel-based advection nowcasting methodology. This methodology was implemented operationally in the CASA Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS) system in a robust and efficient manner necessitated by the high-resolution nature of CASA data and distributed nature of the environment in which the nowcasting system operates. Nowcasts up to 10 min to support emergency manager decision-making and 1--5 min to steer the CASA radar nodes to better observe the advecting storm patterns for forecasters and researchers are currently provided by this system. Results of nowcasting performance during the 2009 CASA IP experiment are presented. Additionally, currently state-of-the-art scale-based filtering methods were adapted and evaluated for use in the CASA DCAS to provide a scale-based analysis of nowcasting. DARTS was also incorporated in the Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making system to provide more accurate and efficient snow water equivalent nowcasts for aircraft deicing decision support relative to the radar-based nowcasting method currently used in the operational system. Results of an evaluation using data collected from 2007--2008 by the Weather Service Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) located near Denver, Colorado, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Marshall Test Site near Boulder, Colorado, are presented. DARTS was also used to study the short-term predictability of precipitation patterns depicted by high-resolution reflectivity data observed at microalpha (0.2--2 km) to mesobeta (20--200 km) scales by the CASA radar network. Additionally, DARTS was used to investigate the performance of nowcasting rainfall fields derived from specific differential phase estimates, which have been shown to provide more accurate and robust rainfall estimates compared to those made from radar reflectivity data.

Comparison of Optimum Interpolation and Cressman Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Bloom, S. C.; Nestler, M. S.

1984-01-01

The objective of this investigation is to develop a state-of-the-art optimum interpolation (O/I) objective analysis procedure for use in numerical weather prediction studies. A three-dimensional multivariate O/I analysis scheme has been developed. Some characteristics of the GLAS O/I compared with those of the NMC and ECMWF systems are summarized. Some recent enhancements of the GLAS scheme include a univariate analysis of water vapor mixing ratio, a geographically dependent model prediction error correlation function and a multivariate oceanic surface analysis.

Comparison of Optimum Interpolation and Cressman Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Bloom, S. C.; Nestler, M. S.

1985-01-01

The development of a state of the art optimum interpolation (O/I) objective analysis procedure for use in numerical weather prediction studies was investigated. A three dimensional multivariate O/I analysis scheme was developed. Some characteristics of the GLAS O/I compared with those of the NMC and ECMWF systems are summarized. Some recent enhancements of the GLAS scheme include a univariate analysis of water vapor mixing ratio, a geographically dependent model prediction error correlation function and a multivariate oceanic surface analysis.

A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Baker, Wayman E.; Pfaendtner, James; Corrigan, Martin

1988-01-01

From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

2016-07-01

We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

Weather Webcam System for the Safety of Helicopter Emergency Medical Services in Miyazaki, Japan.

PubMed

Kanemaru, Katsuhiro; Katzer, Robert; Hanato, Syu; Nakamura, Koji; Matsuoka, Hiroshi; Ochiai, Hidenobu

In Japan, the helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) system was initiated in 2001 and introduced to Miyazaki Prefecture in 2012. Mountainous areas occupy 88% of Miyazaki's land area, and HEMS flights can be subject to the effects of weather. Therefore, ensuring safety in changing weather conditions is a necessity for HEMS. The weather webcam system (WWS) was established to observe the meteorological conditions in 29 locations. Assessments of the probability of a flight based on conventional data including a weather chart provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency and meteorological reports provided by the Miyazaki Airport were compared with the assessment based on the combination of the information obtained from the WWS and the conventional data. The results showed that the probability of a flight by HEMS increased when using the WSS, leading to an increased transportation opportunity for patients in the mountains who rely on HEMS. In addition, the results indicate that the WWS may prevent flights in unfavorable weather conditions. The WWS used in conjunction with conventional weather data within Miyazaki HEMS increased the pilot's awareness of current weather conditions throughout the Prefecture, increasing the probability of accepting a flight. Copyright © 2017 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigating Surface Bias Errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using a Geographic Information System (GIS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

WRF ) Model using a Geographic Information System (GIS) by Jeffrey A Smith, Theresa A Foley, John W Raby, and Brian Reen...ARL-TR-7212 ● FEB 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Investigating Surface Bias Errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) Model...SUBTITLE Investigating surface bias errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) Model using a Geographic Information System (GIS) 5a

Storm related closures of I-5 and I-90 : freight transportation economic impact assessment report, winter 2007-2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-01

This report documents the economic impact analysis undertaken by WSDOTs Freight Systems Division in response to the : storm-related closures of I-5 and I-90 in the winter 2007-2008. The closures were the result of severe weather that : overwhelmed...

Frontiers of Remote Sensing of the Oceans and Troposphere from Air and Space Platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Several areas of remote sensing are addressed including: future satellite systems; air-sea interaction/wind; ocean waves and spectra/S.A.R.; atmospheric measurements (particulates and water vapor); synoptic and weather forecasting; topography; bathymetry; sea ice; and impact of remote sensing on synoptic analysis/forecasting.

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela

2011-01-01

The goal of this task was to upgrade to the existing severe weather database by adding observations from the 2010 warm season, update the verification dataset with results from the 2010 warm season, use statistical logistic regression analysis on the database and develop a new forecast tool. The AMU analyzed 7 stability parameters that showed the possibility of providing guidance in forecasting severe weather, calculated verification statistics for the Total Threat Score (TTS), and calculated warm season verification statistics for the 2010 season. The AMU also performed statistical logistic regression analysis on the 22-year severe weather database. The results indicated that the logistic regression equation did not show an increase in skill over the previously developed TTS. The equation showed less accuracy than TTS at predicting severe weather, little ability to distinguish between severe and non-severe weather days, and worse standard categorical accuracy measures and skill scores over TTS.

Uncertainty Comparison of Visual Sensing in Adverse Weather Conditions†

PubMed Central

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Chen, Lun-Chi; Tseng, Chien-Hao; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on flood-region detection using monitoring images. However, adverse weather affects the outcome of image segmentation methods. In this paper, we present an experimental comparison of an outdoor visual sensing system using region-growing methods with two different growing rules—namely, GrowCut and RegGro. For each growing rule, several tests on adverse weather and lens-stained scenes were performed, taking into account and analyzing different weather conditions with the outdoor visual sensing system. The influence of several weather conditions was analyzed, highlighting their effect on the outdoor visual sensing system with different growing rules. Furthermore, experimental errors and uncertainties obtained with the growing rules were compared. The segmentation accuracy of flood regions yielded by the GrowCut, RegGro, and hybrid methods was 75%, 85%, and 87.7%, respectively. PMID:27447642

Development and Calibration of a Field-Deployable Microphone Phased Array for Propulsion and Airframe Noise Flyover Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humphreys, William M., Jr.; Lockard, David P.; Khorrami, Mehdi R.; Culliton, William G.; McSwain, Robert G.; Ravetta, Patricio A.; Johns, Zachary

2016-01-01

A new aeroacoustic measurement capability has been developed consisting of a large channelcount, field-deployable microphone phased array suitable for airframe noise flyover measurements for a range of aircraft types and scales. The array incorporates up to 185 hardened, weather-resistant sensors suitable for outdoor use. A custom 4-mA current loop receiver circuit with temperature compensation was developed to power the sensors over extended cable lengths with minimal degradation of the signal to noise ratio and frequency response. Extensive laboratory calibrations and environmental testing of the sensors were conducted to verify the design's performance specifications. A compact data system combining sensor power, signal conditioning, and digitization was assembled for use with the array. Complementing the data system is a robust analysis system capable of near real-time presentation of beamformed and deconvolved contour plots and integrated spectra obtained from array data acquired during flyover passes. Additional instrumentation systems needed to process the array data were also assembled. These include a commercial weather station and a video monitoring / recording system. A detailed mock-up of the instrumentation suite (phased array, weather station, and data processor) was performed in the NASA Langley Acoustic Development Laboratory to vet the system performance. The first deployment of the system occurred at Finnegan Airfield at Fort A.P. Hill where the array was utilized to measure the vehicle noise from a number of sUAS (small Unmanned Aerial System) aircraft. A unique in-situ calibration method for the array microphones using a hovering aerial sound source was attempted for the first time during the deployment.

A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

2015-04-01

Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is a 24 hour window of high resolution/accuracy forecasts leveraging available data-model integration and CAPE prediction. The systems includes dissemination of WRF outputs over the World Wide Web. Components of the system (including WRF computational engine and results dissemination modules) are deployed in to computational cloud. This approach tends to increase system robustness and sustainability. The creation of such a system to share information between the public and private sectors and across territorial boundaries is an important step towards the next generation of governance for climate risk and extreme weather offshore. The system benefits offshore operators by reducing downtime related to accidents and incidents; eliminate unnecessary hiring costs related to waiting on weather; and improve the efficiency and planning of transport and logistics by providing a rolling weather risk advisory.

Trajectory-Based Performance Assessment for Aviation Weather Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

2003-01-01

Based on an analysis of aviation decision-makers' time-related weather information needs, an abstraction of the aviation weather decision task was developed, that involves 4-D intersection testing between aircraft trajectory hypertubes and hazardous weather hypervolumes. The framework builds on the hypothesis that hazardous meteorological fields can be simplified using discrete boundaries of surrogate threat attributes. The abstractions developed in the framework may be useful in studying how to improve the performance of weather forecasts from the trajectory-centric perspective, as well as for developing useful visualization techniques of weather information.

Aircraft Weather Mitigation for the Next Generation Air Transportation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stough, H. Paul, III

2007-01-01

Atmospheric effects on aviation are described by Mahapatra (1999) as including (1) atmospheric phenomena involving air motion - wind shear and turbulence; (2) hydrometeorological phenomena - rain, snow and hail; (3) aircraft icing; (4) low visibility; and (5) atmospheric electrical phenomena. Aircraft Weather Mitigation includes aircraft systems (e.g. airframe, propulsion, avionics, controls) that can be enacted (by a pilot, automation or hybrid systems) to suppress and/or prepare for the effects of encountered or unavoidable weather or to facilitate a crew operational decision-making process relative to weather. Aircraft weather mitigation can be thought of as a continuum (Figure 1) with the need to avoid all adverse weather at one extreme and the ability to safely operate in all weather conditions at the other extreme. Realistic aircraft capabilities fall somewhere between these two extremes. The capabilities of small general aviation aircraft would be expected to fall closer to the "Avoid All Adverse Weather" point, and the capabilities of large commercial jet transports would fall closer to the "Operate in All Weather Conditions" point. The ability to safely operate in adverse weather conditions is dependent upon the pilot s capabilities (training, total experience and recent experience), the airspace in which the operation is taking place (terrain, navigational aids, traffic separation), the capabilities of the airport (approach guidance, runway and taxiway lighting, availability of air traffic control), as well as the capabilities of the airplane. The level of mitigation may vary depending upon the type of adverse weather. For example, a small general aviation airplane may be equipped to operate "in the clouds" without outside visual references, but not be equipped to prevent airframe ice that could be accreted in those clouds.

Integrating remote sensing, geographic information system and modeling for estimating crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, Luis Alonso

This thesis explores various aspects of the use of remote sensing, geographic information system and digital signal processing technologies for broad-scale estimation of crop yield in Kansas. Recent dry and drought years in the Great Plains have emphasized the need for new sources of timely, objective and quantitative information on crop conditions. Crop growth monitoring and yield estimation can provide important information for government agencies, commodity traders and producers in planning harvest, storage, transportation and marketing activities. The sooner this information is available the lower the economic risk translating into greater efficiency and increased return on investments. Weather data is normally used when crop yield is forecasted. Such information, to provide adequate detail for effective predictions, is typically feasible only on small research sites due to expensive and time-consuming collections. In order for crop assessment systems to be economical, more efficient methods for data collection and analysis are necessary. The purpose of this research is to use satellite data which provides 50 times more spatial information about the environment than the weather station network in a short amount of time at a relatively low cost. Specifically, we are going to use Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) based vegetation health (VH) indices as proxies for characterization of weather conditions.

Infrasonic Influences of Tornados and Cyclonic Weather Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Tessa

2014-03-01

Infrasound waves travel through the air at approximately 340 m/s at sea level, while experiencing low levels of friction, allowing the waves to travel over larger distances. When seismic waves travel through unconsolidated soil, the waves slow down to approximately 340 m/s. Because the speeds of waves in the air and ground are similar, a more effective transfer of energy from the atmosphere to the ground can occur. Large ring lasers can be utilized for detecting sources of infrasound traveling through the ground by measuring anomalies in the frequency difference between their two counter-rotating beams. Sources of infrasound include tornados and other cyclonic weather systems. The way systems create waves that transfer to the ground is unknown and will be continued in further research; this research has focused on attempting to isolate the time that the ring laser detected anomalies in order to investigate if these anomalies may be contributed to isolatable weather systems. Furthermore, this research analyzed the frequencies detected in each of the anomalies and compared the frequencies with various characteristics of each weather system, such as tornado width, wind speeds, and system development. This research may be beneficial for monitoring gravity waves and weather systems.

Does weather affect daily pain intensity levels in patients with acute low back pain? A prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Duong, Vicky; Maher, Chris G; Steffens, Daniel; Li, Qiang; Hancock, Mark J

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of various weather parameters on pain intensity levels in patients with acute low back pain (LBP). We performed a secondary analysis using data from the PACE trial that evaluated paracetamol (acetaminophen) in the treatment of acute LBP. Data on 1604 patients with LBP were included in the analysis. Weather parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Pain intensity was assessed daily on a 0-10 numerical pain rating scale over a 2-week period. A generalised estimating equation analysis was used to examine the relationship between daily pain intensity levels and weather in three different time epochs (current day, previous day, and change between previous and current days). A second model was adjusted for important back pain prognostic factors. The analysis did not show any association between weather and pain intensity levels in patients with acute LBP in each of the time epochs. There was no change in strength of association after the model was adjusted for prognostic factors. Contrary to common belief, the results demonstrated that the weather parameters of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure did not influence the intensity of pain reported by patients during an episode of acute LBP.

Diagnostic throughput factor analysis for en-route airspace and optimal aircraft trajectory generation based on capacity prediction and controller workload

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Sanghyun

Today's National Airspace System (NAS) is approaching its limit to efficiently cope with the increasing air traffic demand. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) with its ambitious goals aims to make the air travel more predictable with fewer delays, less time sitting on the ground and holding in the air to improve the performance of the NAS. However, currently the performance of the NAS is mostly measured using delay-based metrics which do not capture a whole range of important factors that determine the quality and level of utilization of the NAS. The factors affecting the performance of the NAS are themselves not well defined to begin with. To address these issues, motivated by the use of throughput-based metrics in many areas such as ground transportation, wireless communication and manufacturing, this thesis identifies the different factors which majorly affect the performance of the NAS as demand (split into flight cancellation and flight rerouting), safe separation (split into conflict and metering) and weather (studied as convective weather) through careful comparison with other applications and performing empirical sensitivity analysis. Additionally, the effects of different factors on the NAS's performance are quantitatively studied using real traffic data with the Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) for various sectors and centers of the NAS on different days. In this thesis we propose a diagnostic tool which can analyze the factors that have greater responsibility for regions of poor and better performances of the NAS. Based on the throughput factor analysis for en-route airspace, it was found that weather and controller workload are the major factors that decrease the efficiency of the airspace. Also, since resources such as air traffic controllers, infrastructure and airspace are limited, it is becoming increasingly important to use the available resources efficiently. To alleviate the impact of the weather and controller workload while optimally utilizing limited resources, various aircraft rerouting strategies for Air Traffic Management (ATM) have been proposed. However, the number of rerouting tools available to address these issues for the center-level and the National Airspace System (NAS) are relatively less compared with the tools for the sector-level and terminal airspace. Additionally, previous works consider the airspace containing the weather as no-fly zones instead of reduced-traffic zones and do not explicitly consider controller workload when generating aircraft trajectories to avoid the weather-affected airspace, thereby reducing the overall performance of the airspace. In this thesis, a new rerouting algorithm for the center-level airspace is proposed to address these problems by introducing a feedback loop connecting a tactical rerouting algorithm with a strategic rerouting algorithm using dynamic programming and a modified A* algorithm respectively. This helps reduce the computational cost significantly while safely handling a large number of aircraft. In summary, this thesis suggests the ways in which the NAS's performance can be further improved, thereby supporting various concepts envisioned by the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) and providing vital information which can be used for suitable economic and environmental advantages.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos

2016-03-01

We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also provides mobile access to the web-based version of the system.

Heavy rain forecasts in mesoscale convective system in July 2016 in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapo, Palina; Barodka, Siarhei; Krasouski, Aliaksandr

2017-04-01

During the last decade, the frequency of severe weather phenomena, such as heavy precipitation, hail and squalls, over Europe is observed to increase, which is attributed to climate change in the region. Such hazardous weather events over the territory of Belarus every year, having significant economic and social effects. Of special interest for further studies are mesoscale convective systems, which can be described as long-lived cloud complexes including groups of cumulonimbus clouds and squall lines. Passage of such systems is accompanied with intense thunderstorms, showers and squally wind. In this study, we investigate a case of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) passage over the territory of Belarus, which occurred 13 July 2016. During this Mesoscale Convective Complex passage, heavy precipitation (up to 43 mm), squally winds and intense thunderstorms have been observed. Another feature of this MCS was the hook-shaped weather radar signature known as a "hook echo", seen on the Doppler weather radar Minsk-2. Tornadoes and powerful mesocyclones are often characterized by the presence of a hook echo on radar. Also we have performed simulations of the convective complex passage with the WRF-ARW mesoscale atmospheric modelling system using 6 different microphysics parameterizations. Our main objectives are to study the conditions of this Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) development, to consider the microphysical structure of clouds in the MCS, and to identify which microphysics package provides the best forecast of precipitation for this case of MCS in terms of its geographical distribution and precipitation amount in towns and cities where highest levels of precipitation have been observed. We present analysis of microphysical structure of this MCS along with evaluation of precipitation forecasts obtained with different microphysics parametrizations as compared to real observational data. In particular, we may note that results of almost all microphysics simulations indicate underestimation of precipitation areas in the region of interest.

Operational numerical weather prediction on the CYBER 205 at the National Meteorological Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deaven, D.

1984-01-01

The Development Division of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), having the responsibility of maintaining and developing the numerical weather forecasting systems of the center, is discussed. Because of the mission of NMC data products must be produced reliably and on time twice daily free of surprises for forecasters. Personnel of Development Division are in a rather unique situation. They must develop new advanced techniques for numerical analysis and prediction utilizing current state-of-the-art techniques, and implement them in an operational fashion without damaging the operations of the center. With the computational speeds and resources now available from the CYBER 205, Development Division Personnel will be able to introduce advanced analysis and prediction techniques into the operational job suite without disrupting the daily schedule. The capabilities of the CYBER 205 are discussed.

Air Force Global Weather Central System Architecture Study. Final System/Subsystem Summary Report. Volume 4. Systems Analysis and Trade Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-03-01

atmosphere,as well as very fine grid cloud models and cloud probability models. Some of the new requirements that will be supported with this system are a...including the Advanced Prediction Model for the global atmosphere, as well as very fine grid cloud models and cloud proba- bility models. Some of the new...with the mapping and gridding function (imput and output)? Should the capability exist to interface raw ungridded data with the SID interface

Transportation system resilience, extreme weather and climate change : a thought leadership series

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-09-01

This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.

Improving the Wyoming Road Weather Information System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-11-01

A two-year study of the Wyoming Road Weather Information System (RWIS) indicated that the system will facilitate and improve maintenance operations and enhance the safety and convenience of highway travel if certain critical improvements are made. Wi...

Twenty-Channel Voice Response System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-06-01

This report documents the design and implementation of a Voice Response System, which provides Direct-User Access to the FAA's aviation-weather data base. This system supports 20 independent audio channels, and as of this report, speaks three weather...

Temporal variability of CO2 and N2O emissions in an agricultural long-term field trial regarding effects of different management practices and extreme weather effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koal, Philipp; Schilling, Rolf; Gerl, Georg; Pritsch, Karin; Munch, Jean Charles

2016-04-01

In order to achieve a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, modern agronomic management practices need to be established. Therefore, to assess the effect of different farming practices on greenhouse gas emissions, reliable data are required. The experiment covers and compares main aspects of agricultural management for a better implementation of sustainable land use. The focus lies on the determination and interpretation of greenhouse gas emissions, where the effects of diverse tillage systems and fertilisation practices of an integrated farming system as well as the impacts of extreme weather conditions are observed. In addition, with analysis of the alterable biological, physical and chemical soil properties a link between the impact of different management systems on greenhouse gas emissions and the observed cycle of matter in the soil, especially the nitrogen and carbon cycle, is enabled. Measurements have been carried out on long-term field trials at the Research Farm Scheyern located in a Tertiary hilly landscape approximately 40 km north of Munich (South Germany). The long-term integrated farming system trial was started in 1992. Since then parcels of land (each around 0.2-0.4 ha) with a particular interior plot set-up have been conducted with the same crop rotation, tillage and fertilisation practice referring to integrated farming management. Thus, the management impacts on the soil of more than 20 years have been examined. Fluxes of CH4, N2O and CO2 have been monitored since 2007 for the integrated farming system trial using an automated system which consists of chambers (0.4 m2 area) with a motor-driven lid, an automated gas sampling unit, an on-line gas chromatographic analysis system, and a control and data logging unit. Precipitation and temperature data have been observed for the experimental field to include weather effects. The main outcomes are the analysis of temporal and spatial dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions influenced by management practice events (i.a. fertilisation, crop incorporation and tillage) and weather effects (drying-rewetting, freezing-thawing, intense rainfall and dry periods) and the creation of impact studies comparing the management practices (minimum tillage vs conventional tillage; high vs low fertilisation). Physical, chemical and biological soil properties (i.a. texture, mineral nitrogen, soil organic carbon and microbial biomass) have been examined in short time intervals to aggregate the parameters and processes influencing the greenhouse gas emissions and to build a linkage between soil organic matter and greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, with the collected soil and agronomic data (harvest, tillage and fertilisation practices) the study contributes to a process quantification supporting modelling approaches.

Design of all-weather celestial navigation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hongchi; Mu, Rongjun; Du, Huajun; Wu, Peng

2018-03-01

In order to realize autonomous navigation in the atmosphere, an all-weather celestial navigation system is designed. The research of celestial navigation system include discrimination method of comentropy and the adaptive navigation algorithm based on the P value. The discrimination method of comentropy is studied to realize the independent switching of two celestial navigation modes, starlight and radio. Finally, an adaptive filtering algorithm based on P value is proposed, which can greatly improve the disturbance rejection capability of the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the three axis attitude is better than 10″, and it can work all weather. In perturbation environment, the position accuracy of the integrated navigation system can be increased 20% comparing with the traditional method. It basically meets the requirements of the all-weather celestial navigation system, and it has the ability of stability, reliability, high accuracy and strong anti-interference.

Weather chains during the 2013/2014 winter and their significance for seasonal prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Huw C.

2015-11-01

Day-to-day weather forecasting has improved substantially over the past few decades. In contrast, progress in seasonal prediction outside the tropics has been meagre and mixed. On seasonal timescales, the constraining influence of the initial atmospheric state is weak, and the internal variability associated with transient weather systems tends to be large compared with the nuanced influence of anomalies in external forcing. Current research and operational activities focus on exploring and exploiting potential links between external anomalies and seasonal-mean climate patterns. Here I examine reanalysed meteorological data sets for the unusual winter 2013/2014, with drought and freezing conditions juxtaposed over North America and severe wet and stormy weather over parts of Europe, to study the role of weather systems and their transient upper-tropospheric flow patterns. I find that the amplitude, recurrence and location of these transient patterns account directly for the corresponding anomalous seasonal-mean patterns. They occurred episodically and sequentially, were linked dynamically, and exhibited some circumpolar connectivity. I conclude that the upper-tropospheric components of transient weather systems are significant for understanding and predicting seasonal weather patterns, whereas the role of external factors is more subtle.

Concept of Operations for the NASA Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project. Version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Walter S.; Tsoucalas, George; Tanger, Thomas

2003-01-01

The Weather Accident Prevention Concept of Operations (CONOPS) serves as a decision-making framework for research and technology development planning. It is intended for use by the WxAP members and other related programs in NASA and the FAA that support aircraft accident reduction initiatives. The concept outlines the project overview for program level 3 elements-such as AWIN, WINCOMM, and TPAWS (Turbulence)-that develop the technologies and operating capabilities to form the building blocks for WxAP. Those building blocks include both retrofit of equipment and systems and development of new aircraft, training technologies, and operating infrastructure systems and capabilities. This Concept of operations document provides the basis for the WxAP project to develop requirements based on the operational needs ofthe system users. It provides the scenarios that the flight crews, airline operations centers (AOCs), air traffic control (ATC), and flight service stations (FSS) utilize to reduce weather related accidents. The provision to the flight crew of timely weather information provides awareness of weather situations that allows replanning to avoid weather hazards. The ability of the flight crew to locate and avoid weather hazards, such as turbulence and hail, contributes to safer flight practices.

Human factors analysis of road weather advisory and control information : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-31

The amount of available weather information and the methods by which this information can be disseminated to travelers have grown considerably in recent years. This growth includes weather gathering devices (sensors, satellites), models and forecasti...

Walker Branch Throughfall Displacement Experiment Data Report: Site Characterization, System Performance, Weather, Species Composition, and Growth (NDP-078 and 078A)

DOE Data Explorer

Cushman, Robert M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States), Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division; Hanson, Paul J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA), Environmental Sciences Division; Todd, Donald E. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA), Environmental Sciences Division; Riggs, Jeffery S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA), Instrumentation and Controls Division; Wolfe, Mark E. [Tennessee Valley Authority, Norris, TN (USA); O'Neill, Elizabeth G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States), Environmental Sciences Division

2001-07-01

This numeric data package provides data sets, and accompanying documentation, on site characterization, system performance, weather, species composition, and growth for the Throughfall Displacement Experiment, which was established in the Walker Branch Watershed of East Tennessee to provide data on the responses of forests to altered precipitation regimes. The specific data sets include soil water content and potential, coarse fraction of the soil profile, litter layer temperature, soil temperature, monthly weather, daily weather, hourly weather, species composition of trees and saplings, mature tree and sapling annual growth, and relative leaf area index. Fortran and SAS(TM) access codes are provided to read the ASCII data files.

Ionosphere-related products for communication and navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.

2011-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) is developing and producing commercial space weather applications. A key system-level component for providing timely information about the effects of space weather is the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. The global, CONUS, Europe, Asia, South America, and other regional sectors are run with a 15-minute cadence. These operational runs enable SWC to calculate and report the global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders, especially during the Japan Great Earthquake and tsunami recovery period. SWC has established its first fully commercial enterprise called Q-up as a result of this activity. GPS uncertainty maps are produced by SWC to improve single-frequency GPS applications. SWC also provides the space weather smartphone app called SpaceWx for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android for professional users and public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example, as well as global NVIS maps. We describe upcoming improvements for moving space weather information through automated systems into final derivative products.

A Meteorological Supersite for Aviation and Cold Weather Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gultepe, Ismail; Agelin-Chaab, M.; Komar, J.; Elfstrom, G.; Boudala, F.; Zhou, B.

2018-05-01

The goal of this study is to better understand atmospheric boundary layer processes and parameters, and to evaluate physical processes for aviation applications using data from a supersite observing site. Various meteorological sensors, including a weather and environmental unmanned aerial vehicle (WE-UAV), and a fog and snow tower (FSOS) observations are part of the project. The PanAm University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT) Meteorological Supersite (PUMS) observations are being collected from April 2015 to date. The FSOS tower gathers observations related to rain, snow, fog, and visibility, aerosols, solar radiation, and wind and turbulence, as well as surface and sky temperature. The FSOSs are located at three locations at about 450-800 m away from the PUMS supersite. The WE-UAV measurements representing aerosol, wind speed and direction, as well as temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) are provided during clear weather conditions. Other measurements at the PUMS site include cloud backscattering profiles from CL51 ceilometer, MWR observations of liquid water content (LWC), T, and RH, and Microwave Rain Radar (MRR) reflectivity profile, as well as the present weather type, snow water depth, icing rate, 3D-ultrasonic wind and turbulence, and conventional meteorological observations from compact weather stations, e.g., WXTs. The results based on important weather event studies, representing fog, snow, rain, blowing snow, wind gust, planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind research for UAV, and icing conditions are given. The microphysical parameterizations and analysis processes for each event are provided, but the results should not be generalized for all weather events and be used cautiously. Results suggested that integrated observing systems based on data from a supersite as well as satellite sites can provide better information applicable to aviation meteorology, including PBL weather research, validation of numerical weather model predictions, and remote-sensing retrievals. Overall, the results from the five cases are provided and challenges related to observations applicable to aviation meteorology are discussed.

Application of wind-profiling radar data to the analysis of dust weather in the Taklimakan Desert.

PubMed

Wang, Minzhong; Wei, Wenshou; Ruan, Zheng; He, Qing; Ge, Runsheng

2013-06-01

The Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration carried out an atmospheric scientific experiment to detect dust weather using a wind-profiling radar in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert in April 2010. Based on the wind-profiling data obtained from this experiment, this paper seeks to (a) analyze the characteristics of the horizontal wind field and vertical velocity of a breaking dust weather in a desert hinterland; (b) calculate and give the radar echo intensity and vertical distribution of a dust storm, blowing sand, and floating dust weather; and (c) discuss the atmosphere dust counts/concentration derived from the wind-profiling radar data. Studies show that: (a) A wind-profiling radar is an upper-air atmospheric remote sensing system that effectively detects and monitors dust. It captures the beginning and ending of a dust weather process as well as monitors the sand and dust being transported in the air in terms of height, thickness, and vertical intensity. (b) The echo intensity of a blowing sand and dust storm weather episode in Taklimakan is about -1~10 dBZ while that of floating dust -1~-15 dBZ, indicating that the dust echo intensity is significantly weaker than that of precipitation but stronger than that of clear air. (c) The vertical shear of horizontal wind and the maintenance of low-level east wind are usually dynamic factors causing a dust weather process in Taklimakan. The moment that the low-level horizontal wind field finds a shear over time, it often coincides with the onset of a sand blowing and dust storm weather process. (d) When a blowing sand or dust storm weather event occurs, the atmospheric vertical velocity tends to be of upward motion. This vertical upward movement of the atmosphere supported with a fast horizontal wind and a dry underlying surface carries dust particles from the ground up to the air to form blown sand or a dust storm.

Weather Observers: A Manipulative Augmented Reality System for Weather Simulations at Home, in the Classroom, and at a Museum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hsiao, Hsien-Sheng; Chang, Cheng-Sian; Lin, Chien-Yu; Wang, Yau-Zng

2016-01-01

This study focused on how to enhance the interactivity and usefulness of augmented reality (AR) by integrating manipulative interactive tools with a real-world environment. A manipulative AR (MAR) system, which included 3D interactive models and manipulative aids, was designed and developed to teach the unit "Understanding Weather" in a…

Aviation Weather Information Communications Study (AWIN). Phase 1 and 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, J. W.; Herron, R. G.; Nozawa, E. T.; Thomas, E. A.; Witchey, R. D.

2000-01-01

This two part study examines the communication requirements to provide weather information in the cockpit as well as public and private communication systems available to address the requirements. Ongoing research projects combined with user needs for weather related information are used to identify and describe potential weather products that address decision support in three time frames: Far-Term Strategic, Near-Term Strategic and Tactical. Data requirements of these future products are identified and quantified. Communications systems and technologies available in the public as well as private sector are analyzed to identify potential solutions. Recommendations for further research identify cost, performance, and safety benefits to justify the investment. The study concludes that not all weather information has the same level of urgency to safety-of-flight and some information is more critical to one category of flight than another. Specific weather products need to be matched with communication systems with appropriate levels of reliability to support the criticality of the information. Available bandwidth for highly critical information should be preserved and dedicated to safety. Meanwhile, systems designed for in-flight-entertainment and other passenger/crew services could be used to support less critical information that is used only for planning and economic decision support.

Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tam, A.; Jain, M.

2016-12-01

This research includes two projects pertaining to agricultural systems' adaption to climate change. The first research project focuses on the wheat yielding regions of India. Wheat is a major staple crop and many rural households and smallholder farmers rely on crop yields for survival. We examine the impacts of weather variability and groundwater depletion on agricultural systems, using geospatial analysis and satellite-based analysis and household-based and census data sets. We use these methods to estimate the crop yields and identify what factors are associated with low versus high yielding regions. This can help identify strategies that should be further promoted to increase crop yields. The second research project is a literature review. We conduct a meta-analysis and synthetic review on literature about agricultural adaptation to climate change. We sort through numerous articles to identify and examine articles that associate socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors to farmers' adaption to climate change. Our preliminary results show that researchers tend to associate few factors to a farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and most of the research conducted is concentrated in North America, whereas tropical regions that are highly vulnerable to weather variability are underrepresented by literature. There are no conclusive results in both research projects as of so far.