Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Factoring in weather variation to capture the influence of urban design and built environment on globally recommended levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity in children

PubMed Central

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2015-01-01

Objectives In curbing physical inactivity, as behavioural interventions directed at individuals have not produced a population-level change, an ecological perspective called active living research has gained prominence. However, active living research consistently underexplores the role played by a perennial phenomenon encompassing all other environmental exposures—variation in weather. After factoring in weather variation, this study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including urban design and built environment) on the accumulation of globally recommended moderate to vigorous physical activity levels (MVPA) in children. Design This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. As part of this study, Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Moreover, diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive MVPA of 331 10–14-year-old children in 25 1-week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample and matched with weather data obtained from Environment Canada. Multilevel modelling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modelling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on the accumulation of recommended MVPA. Results Urban design, including diversity of destinations within neighbourhoods played a significant role in the accumulation of MVPA. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were more likely to accumulate recommended MVPA. Conclusions The findings indicate that after factoring in weather variation, certain types of urban design are more likely to be associated with MVPA accumulation. PMID:26621516

Soil chemistry in lithologically diverse datasets: the quartz dilution effect

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bern, Carleton R.

2009-01-01

National- and continental-scale soil geochemical datasets are likely to move our understanding of broad soil geochemistry patterns forward significantly. Patterns of chemistry and mineralogy delineated from these datasets are strongly influenced by the composition of the soil parent material, which itself is largely a function of lithology and particle size sorting. Such controls present a challenge by obscuring subtler patterns arising from subsequent pedogenic processes. Here the effect of quartz concentration is examined in moist-climate soils from a pilot dataset of the North American Soil Geochemical Landscapes Project. Due to variable and high quartz contents (6.2–81.7 wt.%), and its residual and inert nature in soil, quartz is demonstrated to influence broad patterns in soil chemistry. A dilution effect is observed whereby concentrations of various elements are significantly and strongly negatively correlated with quartz. Quartz content drives artificial positive correlations between concentrations of some elements and obscures negative correlations between others. Unadjusted soil data show the highly mobile base cations Ca, Mg, and Na to be often strongly positively correlated with intermediately mobile Al or Fe, and generally uncorrelated with the relatively immobile high-field-strength elements (HFS) Ti and Nb. Both patterns are contrary to broad expectations for soils being weathered and leached. After transforming bulk soil chemistry to a quartz-free basis, the base cations are generally uncorrelated with Al and Fe, and negative correlations generally emerge with the HFS elements. Quartz-free element data may be a useful tool for elucidating patterns of weathering or parent-material chemistry in large soil datasets.

Differences in Meteorological Conditions between Days with Persistent and Non-Persistent Pollution in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Ting; Wu, Renguang; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

We compared the regional synoptic patterns and local meteorological conditions during persistent and non-persistent pollution events in Beijing using US NCEP-Department of Energy reanalysis outputs and observations from meteorological stations. The analysis focused on the impacts of high-frequency (period < 90 days) variations in meteorological conditions on persistent pollution events (those lasting for at least 3 days). Persistent pollution events tended to occur in association with slow-moving weather systems producing stagnant weather conditions, whereas rapidly moving weather systems caused a dramatic change in the local weather conditions so that the pollution event was short-lived. Although Beijing was under the influence of anomalous southerly winds in all four seasons during pollution events, notable differences were identified in the regional patterns of sea-level pressure and local anomalies in relative humidity among persistent pollution events in different seasons. A region of lower pressure was present to the north of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, whereas regions of lower and higher pressures were observed northwest and southeast of Beijing, respectively, in summer. The relative humidity near Beijing was higher in fall and winter, but lower in spring and summer. These differences may explain the seasonal dependence of the relationship between air pollution and the local meteorological variables. Our analysis showed that the temperature inversion in the lower troposphere played an important part in the occurrence of air pollution under stagnant weather conditions. Some results from this study are based on a limited number of events and thus require validation using more data.

Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Welty, Justin L; Arkle, Robert S

2017-10-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin; Arkle, Robert

2017-01-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, Greg

2017-05-01

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.

A Study into the Impact of Physical Structures on the Runway Velocity Field at the Atlantic City International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, David, Jr.; Manson, Russell; Trout, Joseph; Decicco, Nicholas; Rios, Manny

2015-04-01

Wake vortices are generated by airplanes in flight. These vortices decay slowly and may persist for several minutes after their creation. These vortices and associated smaller scale turbulent structures present a hazard to incoming flights. It is for this reason that incoming flights are timed to arrive after these vortices have dissipated. Local weather conditions, mainly prevailing winds, can affect the transport and evolution of these vortices; therefore, there is a need to fully understand localized wind patterns at the airport-sized mircoscale. Here we have undertaken a computational investigation into the impacts of localized wind flows and physical structures on the velocity field at Atlantic City International Airport. The simulations are undertaken in OpenFOAM, an open source computational fluid dynamics software package, using an optimized geometric mesh of the airport. Initial conditions for the simulations are based on historical data with the option to run simulations based on projected weather conditions imported from the Weather Research & Forcasting (WRF) Model. Sub-grid scale turbulence is modeled using a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach. The initial results gathered from the WRF Model simulations and historical weather data analysis are presented elsewhere.

POPULATION SYNCHRONY WITHIN AND AMONG LEPIDOPTERA SPECIES IN RELATION TO WEATHER, PHYLOGENY, AND LARVEL PHENOLOGY

EPA Science Inventory

1. The population dynamics of native herbivore species in central Appalachian deciduous forests were studied by analysing patterns of synchrony among intra- and interspecific populations and weather. 2. Spatial synchrony of 10 Lepidoptera species and three weather variables (min...

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE PAGES

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd; ...

2017-11-06

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Voisin, Nathalie; Taylor, Z. Todd

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. Here, we quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. Our novel approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging frommore » 8 to roughly 150, to evaluate the ability to capture weather patterns across different seasons. Using 8 stations across the western U.S., one from each IECC climate zone, results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of ~4.0 °C with respect to a high-resolution gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to ~1.5 °C using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.5%. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20–40% bias of peak building loads during both summer and winter, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. Our approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Enhancing USDA's Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H. D.

2013-12-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attachés, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB has often, as part of its operational process, used historical time series of surface-based precipitation observations to visually identify growing seasons with similar (analog) weather patterns as, and help estimate crop yields for, the current growing season. As part of a larger effort to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing observations and research results into WAOB's decision-making environment, a more rigorous, statistical method for identifying analog years was developed. This method, termed the analog index (AI), is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The AI was computed for five study areas and six growing seasons of data analyzed (2003-2007 as potential analog years and 2008 as the target year). Previously reported results compared the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-retrieved precipitation data. Those results showed that, for all five areas, crop yield estimates derived from satellite-retrieved precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation observations. Subsequent work has compared the relative performance of AI for time series derived from satellite-retrieved surface soil moisture data and from root zone soil moisture derived from the assimilation of surface soil moisture data into a land surface model. These results, which also showed the potential benefits of satellite data for analog year analyses, will be presented.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

North Atlantic SST Patterns and NAO Flavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousi, E.; Rahmstorf, S.; Coumou, D.

2017-12-01

North Atlantic SST variability results from the interaction of atmospheric and oceanic processes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives changes in SST patterns but is also driven by them on certain time-scales. These interactions are not very well understood and might be affected by anthropogenic climate change. Paleo reconstructions indicate a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in recent decades leading to a pronounced cold anomaly ("cold blob") in the North Atlantic (Rahmstorf et al., 2015). The latter may favor NAO to be in its negative mode. In this work, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are studied in relation to NAO variations, with the aim of discovering preferred states and understanding their interactions. SST patterns are analyzed with Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), a clustering technique that helps identify different spatial patterns and their temporal evolution. NAO flavors refer to different longitudinal positions and tilts of the NAO action centers, also defined with SOMs. This way the limitations of the basic, index-based, NAO-definition are overcome, and the method handles different spatially shapes associated with NAO. Preliminary results show the existence of preferred combinations of SSTs and NAO flavors, which in turn affect weather and climate of Europe and North America. The possible influence of the cold blob on European weather is discussed.

SSSNOW Project: Helping Make Science Cool for Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huff, Kenneth; Lange, Catherine

2010-01-01

In the atmosphere or on the ground, snow provides students with unique opportunities to discover winter weather patterns. Traditionally, when students study weather, it is limited to the collection of data one would see on a weather report. However, the interdisciplinary Students Synthesizing Snow data in Natural Objective Ways (SSSNOW) project…

Exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms and related flash floods in May and June 2016 in Germany - Part 1: Meteorological background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piper, David; Kunz, Michael; Ehmele, Florian; Mohr, Susanna; Mühr, Bernhard; Kron, Andreas; Daniell, James

2016-12-01

During a 15-day episode from 26 May to 9 June 2016, Germany was affected by an exceptionally large number of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, related flash floods and creek flooding, hail, and tornadoes caused substantial losses running into billions of euros (EUR). This paper analyzes the key features of the severe thunderstorm episode using extreme value statistics, an aggregated precipitation severity index, and two different objective weather-type classification schemes. It is shown that the thunderstorm episode was caused by the interaction of high moisture content, low thermal stability, weak wind speed, and large-scale lifting by surface lows, persisting over almost 2 weeks due to atmospheric blocking.For the long-term assessment of the recent thunderstorm episode, we draw comparisons to a 55-year period (1960-2014) regarding clusters of convective days with variable length (2-15 days) based on precipitation severity, convection-favoring weather patterns, and compound events with low stability and weak flow. It is found that clusters with more than 8 consecutive convective days are very rare. For example, a 10-day cluster with convective weather patterns prevailing during the recent thunderstorm episode has a probability of less than 1 %.

A Self-Organizing Map Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigro, M. A.; Cassano, J. J.; Wille, J.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lazzara, M. A.

2015-12-01

An accurate representation of the atmospheric boundary layer in numerical weather prediction models is important for predicting turbulence and energy exchange in the atmosphere. This study uses two years of observations from a 30-m automatic weather station (AWS) installed on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica to evaluate forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), a numerical weather prediction system based on the polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model that uses the MYJ planetary boundary layer scheme and that primarily supports the extensive aircraft operations of the U.S. Antarctic Program. The 30-m AWS has six levels of instrumentation, providing vertical profiles of temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. The observations show the atmospheric boundary layer over the Ross Ice Shelf is stable approximately 80% of the time, indicating the influence of the permanent ice surface in this region. The observations from the AWS are further analyzed using the method of self-organizing maps (SOM) to identify the range of potential temperature profiles that occur over the Ross Ice Shelf. The SOM analysis identified 30 patterns, which range from strong inversions to slightly unstable profiles. The corresponding AMPS forecasts were evaluated for each of the 30 patterns to understand the accuracy of the AMPS near surface layer under different atmospheric conditions. The results indicate that under stable conditions AMPS with MYJ under predicts the inversion strength by as much as 7.4 K over the 30-m depth of the tower and over predicts the near surface wind speed by as much as 3.8 m s-1. Conversely, under slightly unstable conditions, AMPS predicts both the inversion strength and near surface wind speeds with reasonable accuracy.

Frequency analyses for recent regional floods in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, Nick B.; Martinez, Patsy G.; ,

1996-01-01

During 1993-95, significant floods that resulted in record-high river stages, loss of life, and significant property damage occurred in the United States. The floods were caused by unique global weather patterns that produced large amounts of rain over large areas. Standard methods for flood-frequency analyses may not adequately consider the probability of recurrence of these global weather patterns.

Rocks and Rain: orographic precipitation and the form of mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roe, G. H.; Anders, A. M.; Durran, D. R.; Montgomery, D. R.; Hallet, B.

2005-12-01

In mountainous landscapes patterns of erosion reflect patterns of precipitation that are, in turn, controlled by the orography. Ultimately therefore, the feedbacks between orography and the climate it creates are responsible for the sculpting of mountain ranges. Key questions concerning these interactions are: 1) how robust are patterns of precipitation on geologic time scales? and 2) how do those patterns affect landscape form? Since climate is by definition the statistics of weather, there is tremendous information to be gleaned from how patterns of precipitation vary between different weather events. However up to now sparse measurements and computational limitations have hampered our knowledge of such variations. For the Olympics in Washington State, a characteristic midlatitude mountain range, we report results from a high-resolution, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model and a dense network of precipitation gauges. Down to scales around 10 km, the patterns of precipitation are remarkably robust both storm-by-storm and year-to-year, lending confidence that they are indeed persistent on the relevant time scales. Secondly, the consequences of the coupled interactions are presented using a landscape evolution model coupled with a simple model of orographic precipitation that is able to substantially reproduce the observed precipitation patterns.

Raising Awareness about Climate Change in Pacific Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, Karen Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Community-based climate change projects in the Pacific typically seek to raise the awareness of locals about the consequences of climate change and changing weather patterns. A key concern is that such activities might be done in an ad hoc manner, with little consideration of local relevance, audience and the integration of local experiences and…

The use of weather surveillance radar and high-resolution three dimensional weather data to monitor a spruce budworm mass exodus flight

Treesearch

Yan Boulanger; Frédéric Fabry; Alamelu Kilambi; Deepa S. Pureswaran; Brian R. Sturtevant; Rémi Saint-Amant

2017-01-01

The likely spread of the current spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak fromhigh to low density areas brings to the forefront a pressing need to understand its dispersal dynamics and to document mass exodus flights in relation to weather patterns. In this study, we used the weather surveillance radar of Val d'Irène in...

Optimizing Fukushima Emissions Through Pattern Matching and Genetic Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Simpson, M. D.; Philip, C. S.; Baskett, R.

2017-12-01

Hazardous conditions during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident hindered direct observations of the emissions of radioactive materials into the atmosphere. A wide range of emissions are estimated from bottom-up studies using reactor inventories and top-down approaches based on inverse modeling. We present a new inverse modeling estimate of cesium-137 emitted from the Fukushima NPP. Our estimate considers weather uncertainty through a large ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations and uses the FLEXPART atmospheric dispersion model to transport and deposit cesium. The simulations are constrained by observations of the spatial distribution of cumulative cesium deposited on the surface of Japan through April 2, 2012. Multiple spatial metrics are used to quantify differences between observed and simulated deposition patterns. In order to match the observed pattern, we use a multi-objective genetic algorithm to optimize the time-varying emissions. We find that large differences with published bottom-up estimates are required to explain the observations. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Variability of E. coli density and sources in an urban watershed.

PubMed

Wu, J; Rees, P; Dorner, S

2011-03-01

The objective of this study was to characterize the variability of Escherichia coli density and sources in an urban watershed, particularly to focus on the influences of weather and land use. E. coli as a microbial indicator was measured at fourteen sites in four wet weather events and four dry weather conditions in the upper Blackstone River watershed. The sources of E. coli were identified by ribotyping. The results showed that wet weather led to sharp increases of E. coli densities. Interestingly, an intense storm of short duration led to a higher E. coli density than a moderate storm of long duration (p<0.01). The ribotyping patterns revealed microbial sources were mainly attributed to humans and wildlife, but varied in different weather conditions and were associated with the patterns of land use. Human sources accounted for 24.43% in wet weather but only 9.09% in dry weather. In addition, human sources were more frequently observed in residential zones (>30% of the total sources), while wildlife sources were dominant in open land and forest zones (54%). The findings provide useful information for developing optimal management strategies aimed at reducing the level of pathogens in urban watersheds.

Reactions of Air Transport Flight Crews to Displays of Weather During Simulated Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bliss, James P.; Fallon, Corey; Bustamante, Ernesto; Bailey, William R., III; Anderson, Brittany

2005-01-01

Display of information in the cockpit has long been a challenge for aircraft designers. Given the limited space in which to present information, designers have had to be extremely selective about the types and amount of flight related information to present to pilots. The general goal of cockpit display design and implementation is to ensure that displays present information that is timely, useful, and helpful. This suggests that displays should facilitate the management of perceived workload, and should allow maximal situation awareness. The formatting of current and projected weather displays represents a unique challenge. As technologies have been developed to increase the variety and capabilities of weather information available to flight crews, factors such as conflicting weather representations and increased decision importance have increased the likelihood for errors. However, if formatted optimally, it is possible that next generation weather displays could allow for clearer indications of weather trends such as developing or decaying weather patterns. Important issues to address include the integration of weather information sources, flight crew trust of displayed weather information, and the teamed reactivity of flight crews to displays of weather. Past studies of weather display reactivity and formatting have not adequately addressed these issues; in part because experimental stimuli have not approximated the complexity of modern weather displays, and in part because they have not used realistic experimental tasks or participants. The goal of the research reported here was to investigate the influence of onboard and NEXRAD agreement, range to the simulated potential weather event, and the pilot flying on flight crew deviation decisions, perceived workload, and perceived situation awareness. Fifteen pilot-copilot teams were required to fly a simulated route while reacting to weather events presented in two graphical formats on a separate visual display. Measures of flight crew reactions included performance-based measures such as deviation decision accuracy, and judgment-based measures such as perceived decision confidence, workload, situation awareness, and display trust. Results demonstrated that pilots adopted a conservative reaction strategy, often choosing to deviate from weather rather than ride through it. When onboard and NEXRAD displays did not agree, flight crews reacted in a complex manner, trusting the onboard system more but using the NEXRAD system to augment their situation awareness. Distance to weather reduced situation awareness and heightened workload levels. Overall, flight crews tended to adopt a participative leadership style marked by open communication. These results suggest that future weather displays should exploit the existing benefits of NEXRAD presentation for situation awareness while retaining the display structure and logic inherent in the onboard system.

On the role of snow cover ablation variability and synoptic-scale atmospheric forcings at the sub-basin scale within the Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriano, Zachary J.

2018-02-01

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions play a critical role in determining the frequency and intensity of snow cover ablation in the mid-latitudes. Using a synoptic classification technique, distinct regional circulation patterns influencing the Great Lakes basin of North America are identified and examined in conjunction with daily snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. This approach allows for the influence of each synoptic weather type on ablation to be examined independently and for the monthly and inter-annual frequencies of the weather types to be tracked over time. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover and the relatively large geographic extent of the Great Lakes basin, snow cover ablation events and the synoptic-scale patterns that cause them are examined for each of the Great Lakes watershed's five primary sub-basins to understand the regional complexities of snow cover ablation variability. Results indicate that while many synoptic weather patterns lead to ablation across the basins, they can be generally grouped into one of only a few primary patterns: southerly flow, high-pressure overhead, and rain-on-snow patterns. As expected, the patterns leading to ablation are not necessarily consistent between the five sub-basins due to the seasonality of snow cover and the spatial variability of temperature, moisture, wind, and incoming solar radiation associated with the particular synoptic weather types. Significant trends in the inter-annual frequency of ablation-inducing synoptic types do exist for some sub-basins, indicating a potential change in the hydrologic impact of these patterns over time.

Spatial patterns and controls of soil chemical weathering rates along a transient hillslope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yoo, K.; Mudd, S.M.; Sanderman, J.; Amundson, Ronald; Blum, A.

2009-01-01

Hillslopes have been intensively studied by both geomorphologists and soil scientists. Whereas geomorphologists have focused on the physical soil production and transport on hillslopes, soil scientists have been concerned with the topographic variation of soil geochemical properties. We combined these differing approaches and quantified soil chemical weathering rates along a grass covered hillslope in Coastal California. The hillslope is comprised of both erosional and depositional sections. In the upper eroding section, soil production is balanced by physical erosion and chemical weathering. The hillslope then transitions to a depositional slope where soil accumulates due to a historical reduction of channel incision at the hillslope's base. Measurements of hillslope morphology and soil thickness were combined with the elemental composition of the soil and saprolite, and interpreted through a process-based model that accounts for both chemical weathering and sediment transport. Chemical weathering of the minerals as they moved downslope via sediment transport imparted spatial variation in the geochemical properties of the soil. Inverse modeling of the field and laboratory data revealed that the long-term soil chemical weathering rates peak at 5 g m- 2 yr- 1 at the downslope end of the eroding section and decrease to 1.5 g m- 2 yr- 1 within the depositional section. In the eroding section, soil chemical weathering rates appear to be primarily controlled by the rate of mineral supply via colluvial input from upslope. In the depositional slope, geochemical equilibrium between soil water and minerals appeared to limit the chemical weathering rate. Soil chemical weathering was responsible for removing 6% of the soil production in the eroding section and 5% of colluvial influx in the depositional slope. These were among the lowest weathering rates reported for actively eroding watersheds, which was attributed to the parent material with low amount of weatherable minerals and intense coating of the primary minerals by secondary clay and iron oxides. We showed that both the morphologic disequilibrium of the hillslope and the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties are due to spatial variations in the physical and chemical processes that removed mass from the soil. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

A Geospatial Database that Supports Derivation of Climatological Features of Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M.; Ansari, S.; Del Greco, S.

2007-12-01

The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) provides user access to archives of several datasets critical to the detection and evaluation of severe weather. These datasets include archives of: · NEXRAD Level-III point features describing general storm structure, hail, mesocyclone and tornado signatures · National Weather Service Storm Events Database · National Weather Service Local Storm Reports collected from storm spotters · National Weather Service Warnings · Lightning strikes from Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) SWDI archives all of these datasets in a spatial database that allows for convenient searching and subsetting. These data are accessible via the NCDC web site, Web Feature Services (WFS) or automated web services. The results of interactive web page queries may be saved in a variety of formats, including plain text, XML, Google Earth's KMZ, standards-based NetCDF and Shapefile. NCDC's Storm Risk Assessment Project (SRAP) uses data from the SWDI database to derive gridded climatology products that show the spatial distributions of the frequency of various events. SRAP also can relate SWDI events to other spatial data such as roads, population, watersheds, and other geographic, sociological, or economic data to derive products that are useful in municipal planning, emergency management, the insurance industry, and other areas where there is a need to quantify and qualify how severe weather patterns affect people and property.

Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior

Treesearch

Randall P. Benson; John O. Roads; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that predispose wildland fuels to fire. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact...

Prescribed burning weather in Minnesota.

Treesearch

Rodney W. Sando

1969-01-01

Describes the weather patterns in northern Minnesota as related to prescribed burning. The prevailing wind direction, average wind speed, most persistent wind direction, and average Buildup Index are considered in making recommendations.

Interaction effects between weather and space use on harvesting effort and patterns in red deer.

PubMed

Rivrud, Inger M; Meisingset, Erling L; Loe, Leif E; Mysterud, Atle

2014-12-01

Most cervid populations in Europe and North America are managed through selective harvesting, often with age- and sex-specific quotas, with a large influence on the population growth rate. Less well understood is how prevailing weather affects harvesting selectivity and off-take indirectly through changes in individual animal and hunter behavior. The behavior and movement patterns of hunters and their prey are expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Furthermore, habitat characteristics like habitat openness are also known to affect movement patterns and harvesting vulnerability, but how much such processes affect harvest composition has not been quantified. We use harvest data from red deer (Cervus elaphus) to investigate how weather and habitat characteristics affect behavioral decisions of red deer and their hunters throughout the hunting season. More specifically, we look at how sex and age class, temperature, precipitation, moon phase, and day of week affect the probability of being harvested on farmland (open habitat), hunter effort, and the overall harvest numbers. Moon phase and day of week were the strongest predictors of hunter effort and harvest numbers, with higher effort during full moon and weekends, and higher numbers during full moon. In general, the effect of fall weather conditions and habitat characteristics on harvest effort and numbers varied through the season. Yearlings showed the highest variation in the probability of being harvested on farmland through the season, but there was no effect of sex. Our study is among the first to highlight that weather may affect harvesting patterns and off-take indirectly through animal and hunter behavior, but the interaction effects of weather and space use on hunter behavior are complicated, and seem less important than hunter preference and quotas in determining hunter selection and harvest off-take. The consideration of hunter behavior is therefore key when forming management rules for sustainable harvesting.

Interaction effects between weather and space use on harvesting effort and patterns in red deer

PubMed Central

Rivrud, Inger M; Meisingset, Erling L; Loe, Leif E; Mysterud, Atle

2014-01-01

Most cervid populations in Europe and North America are managed through selective harvesting, often with age- and sex-specific quotas, with a large influence on the population growth rate. Less well understood is how prevailing weather affects harvesting selectivity and off-take indirectly through changes in individual animal and hunter behavior. The behavior and movement patterns of hunters and their prey are expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Furthermore, habitat characteristics like habitat openness are also known to affect movement patterns and harvesting vulnerability, but how much such processes affect harvest composition has not been quantified. We use harvest data from red deer (Cervus elaphus) to investigate how weather and habitat characteristics affect behavioral decisions of red deer and their hunters throughout the hunting season. More specifically, we look at how sex and age class, temperature, precipitation, moon phase, and day of week affect the probability of being harvested on farmland (open habitat), hunter effort, and the overall harvest numbers. Moon phase and day of week were the strongest predictors of hunter effort and harvest numbers, with higher effort during full moon and weekends, and higher numbers during full moon. In general, the effect of fall weather conditions and habitat characteristics on harvest effort and numbers varied through the season. Yearlings showed the highest variation in the probability of being harvested on farmland through the season, but there was no effect of sex. Our study is among the first to highlight that weather may affect harvesting patterns and off-take indirectly through animal and hunter behavior, but the interaction effects of weather and space use on hunter behavior are complicated, and seem less important than hunter preference and quotas in determining hunter selection and harvest off-take. The consideration of hunter behavior is therefore key when forming management rules for sustainable harvesting. PMID:25558369

Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young-of-the-year abundance and population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanno, Yoichiro; Pregler, Kasey C.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Hocking, Daniel; Wofford, John E.B.

2015-01-01

Our results indicate that YOY abundance is a key driver of brook trout population dynamics that is mediated by seasonal weather patterns. A reliable assessment of climate change impacts on brook trout needs to account for how alternations in seasonal weather patterns impact YOY abundance and how such relationships may differ across the range of brook trout distribution.

A synoptic approach to weather conditions discloses a relationship with ambulatory blood pressure in hypertensives.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Orlandini, Simone; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian F; Modesti, Pietro A

2008-07-01

Higher blood pressure (BP) values in cold than in hot months has been documented in hypertensives. These changes may potentially contribute to the observed excess winter cardiovascular mortality. However, the association with weather has always been investigated by considering the relationship with a single variable rather than considering the combination of ground weather variables characterizing a specific weather pattern (air mass (AM)). We retrospectively investigate in Florence (Italy) the relationship between BP and specific AMs in hypertensive subjects (n = 540) referred to our Hypertension Unit for 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring during the period of the year characterized by the highest weather variability (winter). Five different winter daily AMs were classified according to the combination of ground weather data (air temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and direction). Multiple variable analysis selected the AM as a significant predictor of mean 24-h BP (P < 0.01 for diastolic BP (DBP) and P < 0.05 for systolic BP (SBP)), daytime DBP (P < 0.001) and nighttime BP (P < 0.01 for both SBP and DBP), with higher BP values observed in cyclonic (unstable, cloudy, and mild weather) than in anticyclonic (settled, cloudless, and cold weather) days. When the association with 2-day sequences of AMs was considered, an increase in ambulatory BP followed a sudden day-to-day change of weather pattern going from anticyclonic to cyclonic days. The weather considered as a combination of different weather variables may affect BP. The forecast of a sudden change of AM could provide important information helpful for hypertensives during winter.

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonas, Jayne L.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess 1) the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, 2) how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and 3) which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six datasets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1989.1

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

PubMed

Jonas, Jayne L; Buhl, Deborah A; Symstad, Amy J

2015-09-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.

A predictive model for spotted wilt epidemics in peanut based on local weather conditions and the tomato spotted wilt virus risk index.

PubMed

Olatinwo, R O; Paz, J O; Brown, S L; Kemerait, R C; Culbreath, A K; Beasley, J P; Hoogenboom, G

2008-10-01

Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV), a member of the genus Tospovirus (family Bunyaviridae), is an important plant virus that causes severe damage to peanut (Arachis hypogaea) in the southeastern United States. Disease severity has been extremely variable in individual fields in Georgia, due to several factors including variability in weather patterns. A TSWV risk index has been developed by the University of Georgia to aid peanut growers with the assessment and avoidance of high risk situations. This study was conducted to examine the relationship between weather parameters and spotted wilt severity in peanut, and to develop a predictive model that integrates localized weather information into the risk index. On-farm survey data collected during 1999, 2002, 2004, and 2005 growing seasons, and derived weather variables during the same years were analyzed using nonlinear and multiple regression analyses. Meteorological data were obtained from the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network. The best model explained 61% of the variation in spotted wilt severity (square root transformed) as a function of the interactions between the TSWV risk index, the average daily temperature in April (TavA), the average daily minimum temperature between March and April (TminMA), the accumulated rainfall in March (RainfallM), the accumulated rainfall in April (RainfallA), the number of rain days in April (RainDayA), evapotranspiration in April (EVTA), and the number of days from 1 January to the planting date (JulianDay). Integrating this weather-based model with the TSWV risk index may help peanut growers more effectively manage tomato spotted wilt disease.

Metapopulation Structure and Dynamics of an Endangered Butterfly

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the yearly variation of between-generation population change. We utilized weather data from the closest accessible NOAA weather station (43◦56′N/90◦49...patterns in the population dynamic, and tested for density-dependent growth and weather factors as potential explanatory factors of the yearly variation...followed a standard protocol including avoiding inclement weather con- ditions (Wilder 1999) and about 95% of the survey data were collected by a single

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States.

PubMed

Egan, Patrick J; Mullin, Megan

2016-04-21

As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

Initial Results of Coupling the Output of a Regional Weather Model and a Localized Computational Fluid Dynamics Model at the Atlantic City International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David; Decicco, Nicholas

2015-04-01

Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the preliminary results of an investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The simulations are used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) that will be used to investigate the effect of weather on wake turbulence. The initial results of the OpenFoam model are presented elsewhere. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

Low frequency North Atlantic SST variability: Weather noise forcing and coupled response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Meizhu

A method to diagnose the causes of low frequency SST variability is developed, tested and applied in an ideal case and real climate. In the ideal case, a free simulation of the COLA CGCM is taken as synthetic observations. For real climate, we take NCEP reanalysis atmospheric data and Reynolds SST as observations. Both the synthetic and actual observation data show that weather noise is the main component of atmospheric variability at subtropics and high-latitude. Diagnoses of results from the ideal case suggest that most of the synthetic observed SST variability can be reproduced by the weather noise surface fluxes forcing. This includes the "observed" low frequency SST patterns in the North Atlantic and their corresponding time evolution. Among all the noise surface fluxes, heat flux plays a major role. The results from simulations using actual observations also suggest that the observed SST variability is mostly atmospheric weather noise forced. The regional atmospheric noise forcing, especially the heat flux noise forcing, is the major source of the low frequency SST variability in the North Atlantic. The observed SST tripole mode has about a 12 year period and it can be reasonably reproduced by the weather noise forcing in terms of its period, spatial pattern and variance. Based on our diagnosis, it is argued that the SST tripole is mainly forced by local atmospheric heat flux noise. The gyre circulation plays a secondary role: the anomalous gyre circulation advects mean thermal features across the inter-gyre boundary, and the mean gyre advection carries SST anomalies along the inter-gyre boundary. The diagnosis is compared with a delayed oscillator theory. We find that the delayed oscillator theory is not supported and that the SST tripole mode is forced by weather noise heat flux noise. However, the result may be model dependent.

Coring the deep critical zone in the Jemez River Basin Critical Zone Observatory, Valles Caldera National Preserve, Northern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moravec, B. G.; White, A. M.; Paras, B.; Sanchez, A.; McGuffy, C.; Fairbanks, D.; McIntosh, J. C.; Pelletier, J. D.; Gallery, R. E.; Rasmussen, C.; Carr, B.; Holbrook, W. S.; Chorover, J.

2016-12-01

The Critical Zone (CZ) is the focus of current interdisciplinary Earth surface science research that aims to describe the interactions between geological and biological processes that influence ecosystem function, soil formation, nutrient and carbon cycling, hydrologic partitioning, biological activity and diversity, and mineral weathering. Prior research at the Catalina-Jemez (C-J) CZO has focused on the CZ near-surface, including remote sensing, and sampling/analysis of vegetation and soil microbiota, soils and saprolite, and surface water. However, the extent to which weathering, water/rock interaction, and solute mobility along flowpaths in the deep CZ respond to near surface CZ processes (i.e. water, energy, and mass fluxes) is not well understood. The goal of the present research is to understand depth-dependent trends in weathering dynamics from the mobile soil to unweathered bedrock in relation to landscape position (hillslope aspect and downgradient hollow). We used diamond core drilling techniques to excavate three boreholes to depths of 18.9, 41.8, and 46.3 meters in an instrumented forested sub-catchment of the C-J CZO in northern New Mexico. Here we present field methodology and preliminary data collected during the field campaign conducted during summer 2016. Element concentrations were measured during core extractions using portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF), which was subsequently validated against bench-scale XRF. Depth-dependent trends in both regolith depth and chemical depletion patterns show significant variation with landscape position. All three boreholes show complex weathering profiles with differences potentially due to textural controls on weathering, development of preferential flowpaths, and differing hydrologic base levels. Preliminary data indicate that chemical depletion patterns are not monotonic, but rather comprise large excursions that are being investigated for their relation to variation in local mineralogical composition and incongruent weathering reactions.

A Model Based Analysis of the Role of an Upper-Level Front and Stratospheric Intrusion in the Mack Lake Fire

Treesearch

Tarisa K. Zimet; Jonathan E. Martin

2003-01-01

Meteorological assessment of wildfire risk has traditionally involved identification of several synoptic types empirically determined to influence wildfire spread. Such weather types are characterized by identifiable synoptic-scale structures and processes. Schroeder et. al. (1964) identified four recognizable synoptic-scale patterns that contribute most frequently to...

Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is statistical forecasting futile?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Jitendra; Sekharan, Sheeba; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Zope, P. E.; Eldho, T. I.

2017-04-01

Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai torrential rains when only two rain gauging stations existed, the governing civic body, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) came forward with an initiative to install 26 automatic weather stations (AWS) in June 2006 (MCGM 2007), which later increased to 60 AWS. A comprehensive statistical analysis to understand the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall over Mumbai or any other coastal city in India has never been attempted earlier. In the current study, a thorough analysis of available rainfall data for 2006-2014 from these stations was performed; the 2013-2014 sub-hourly data from 26 AWS was found useful for further analyses due to their consistency and continuity. Correlogram cloud indicated no pattern of significant correlation when we considered the closest to the farthest gauging station from the base station; this impression was also supported by the semivariogram plots. Gini index values, a statistical measure of temporal non-uniformity, were found above 0.8 in visible majority showing an increasing trend in most gauging stations; this sufficiently led us to conclude that inconsistency in daily rainfall was gradually increasing with progress in monsoon. Interestingly, night rainfall was lesser compared to daytime rainfall. The pattern-less high spatio-temporal variation observed in Mumbai rainfall data signifies the futility of independently applying advanced statistical techniques, and thus calls for simultaneous inclusion of physics-centred models such as different meso-scale numerical weather prediction systems, particularly the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

Identifying when weather influences life-history traits of grazing herbivores.

PubMed

Sims, Michelle; Elston, David A; Larkham, Ann; Nussey, Daniel H; Albon, Steve D

2007-07-01

1. There is increasing evidence that density-independent weather effects influence life-history traits and hence the dynamics of populations of animals. Here, we present a novel statistical approach to estimate when such influences are strongest. The method is demonstrated by analyses investigating the timing of the influence of weather on the birth weight of sheep and deer. 2. The statistical technique allowed for the pattern of temporal correlation in the weather data enabling the effects of weather in many fine-scale time intervals to be investigated simultaneously. Thus, while previous studies have typically considered weather averaged across a single broad time interval during pregnancy, our approach enabled examination simultaneously of the relationships with weekly and fortnightly averages throughout the whole of pregnancy. 3. We detected a positive effect of temperature on the birth weight of deer, which is strongest in late pregnancy (mid-March to mid-April), and a negative effect of rainfall on the birthweight of sheep, which is strongest during mid-pregnancy (late January to early February). The possible mechanisms underlying these weather-birth weight relationships are discussed. 4. This study enhances our insight into the pattern of the timing of influence of weather on early development. The method is of much more general application and could provide valuable insights in other areas of ecology in which sequences of intercorrelated explanatory variables have been collected in space or in time.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

The Synoptic Climatology of Severe Thunderstorms in Manitoba.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladochy, Stephen Eugene Gabriel

The thesis presents the climatologies for Manitoba thunderstorms, hailstorms and tornadoes as well as investigates the synoptic weather conditions conducive for their development. The study not only uses standard meteorological information, but also various kinds of proxy data, in the form of damage reports. These damage reports complement the meteorological data by providing a higher resolution of observations, particularly in the sparsely populated regions. The synoptic conditions are relatively similar for all forms of severe thunderstorms, though the upper level jet stream (ULJ) is stronger for tornadoes, in general. Composite charts, drawn for 50 larger, more damaging hail days and 48 tornado days in the 1970's, helped identify important surface and upper air weather parameters and their inter -relationships with each other and the location of the storm. Time sequence composite charts were used to also show the development process in severe weather occurrences. From the composites, a synoptic weather type classification was devised with 10 categories to identify each storm by type. The most common pattern for severe weather has a strong southwesterly ULJ, with the storm occurring ahead of an advancing cold front. The ULJ patterns were drawn for each synoptic type days, showing differences between categories. The average conditions during tornado touchdowns were also seen from composite maps of surface and upper air isobaric charts. While severe thunderstorms are seen to occur under the "ideal" conditions, often described for U.S. severe weather, they can also be produced under other weather patterns and combinations of atmospheric parameters thought less favorable. The ULJ and LLJ (low-level jet stream) models used in U.S. studies do not always fit Manitoba storms, however, less favorable jet positions, at specific levels, can be compensated for by low-level advection of warm, and moist air.

Factoring in weather variation to capture the influence of urban design and built environment on globally recommended levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity in children.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2015-11-30

In curbing physical inactivity, as behavioural interventions directed at individuals have not produced a population-level change, an ecological perspective called active living research has gained prominence. However, active living research consistently underexplores the role played by a perennial phenomenon encompassing all other environmental exposures-variation in weather. After factoring in weather variation, this study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including urban design and built environment) on the accumulation of globally recommended moderate to vigorous physical activity levels (MVPA) in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. As part of this study, Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Moreover, diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive MVPA of 331 10-14-year-old children in 25 1-week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample and matched with weather data obtained from Environment Canada. Multilevel modelling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modelling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on the accumulation of recommended MVPA. Urban design, including diversity of destinations within neighbourhoods played a significant role in the accumulation of MVPA. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were more likely to accumulate recommended MVPA. The findings indicate that after factoring in weather variation, certain types of urban design are more likely to be associated with MVPA accumulation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Extreme weather events and environmental contamination are associated with case-clusters of melioidosis in the Northern Territory of Australia.

PubMed

Cheng, Allen C; Jacups, Susan P; Gal, Daniel; Mayo, Mark; Currie, Bart J

2006-04-01

Melioidosis, the infection due to the environmental organism Burkholderia pseudomallei, is endemic to northern Australia and South East Asia. It is associated with exposure to mud and pooled surface water, but environmental determinants of this disease are poorly understood. We defined case-clusters in northern Australia, determined their contribution to the observed rate of melioidosis, and explored clinical features and associated environmental factors. Using geographical information systems data, we examined clustering of melioidosis cases in time and geographical space in the Top End of the Northern Territory of Australia between 1990 and 2002 using a scan statistic. DNA macrorestriction analysis, resolved by pulsed field gel electrophoresis, was performed on isolates from patients. We defined five case-clusters involving 27 patients that occurred within 7-28 days and/or a radius of 100-300 km. Clustered cases were associated with extreme weather events or environmental contamination; no difference in the clinical pattern of disease was noted from other patients not involved in clusters. Isolates from patients linked to environmental contamination were caused by isolates with similar DNA macrorestriction patterns, but isolates from patients linked to severe weather events had more diverse DNA macrorestriction patterns. Case-clusters of melioidosis where isolates exhibit diverse DNA macrorestriction patterns in our region are linked to extreme weather events and outbreaks where isolates are predominantly of the same DNA macrorestriction pattern are linked with contamination of an environmental source.

Disentangling oil weathering using GC x GC. 2. Mass transfer calculations.

PubMed

Arey, J Samuel; Nelson, Robert K; Plata, Desiree L; Reddy, Christopher M

2007-08-15

Hydrocarbon mass transfers to the atmosphere and water column drive the early weathering of oil spills and also control the chemical exposures of many coastal wildlife species. However, in the field, mass transfer rates of individual hydrocarbons to air and water are often uncertain. In the Part 1 companion to this paper, we used comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC x GC) to identify distinct signatures of evaporation and dissolution encoded in the compositional evolution of weathered oils. In Part 2, we further investigate patterns of mass removal in GC x GC chromatograms using a mass transfer model. The model was tailored to conditions at a contaminated beach on Buzzards Bay, MA, after the 2003 Bouchard 120 oil spill. The model was applied to all resolved hydrocarbon compounds in the C11-C24 boiling range, based on their GC x GC-estimated vapor pressures and aqueous solubilities. With no fitted parameters, the model successfully predicted GC x GC chromatogram patterns of mass removal associated with evaporation, water-washing, and diffusion-limited transport. This enabled a critical field evaluation of the mass transfer model and also allowed mass apportionment estimates of hundreds of individual hydrocarbon compounds to air and water. Ultimately, this method should improve assessments of wildlife exposures to oil spill hydrocarbons.

NOAA: Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather

Science.gov Websites

El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this NOAA HOME WEATHER OCEANS FISHERIES CHARTING SATELLITES CLIMATE RESEARCH COASTS CAREERS National Temperature. Temperature - U.S. Winter Outlook: 2015-2016 (Credit: NOAA) Forecasters at NOAA's Climate

Impact of atmospheric CO2 levels on continental silicate weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulieu, E.; GoddéRis, Y.; Labat, D.; Roelandt, C.; Oliva, P.; Guerrero, B.

2010-07-01

Anthropogenic sources are widely accepted as the dominant cause for the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Here we use the B-WITCH model to quantify the impact of increased CO2 concentrations on CO2 consumption by weathering of continental surfaces. B-WITCH couples a dynamic biogeochemistry model (LPJ) and a process-based numerical model of continental weathering (WITCH). It allows simultaneous calculations of the different components of continental weathering fluxes, terrestrial vegetation dynamics, and carbon and water fluxes. The CO2 consumption rates are estimated at four different atmospheric CO2 concentrations, from 280 up to 1120 ppmv, for 22 sites characterized by silicate lithologies (basalt, granite, or sandstones). The sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations is explored, while temperature and rainfall are held constant. First, we show that under 355 ppmv of atmospheric CO2, B-WITCH is able to reproduce the global pattern of weathering rates as a function of annual runoff, mean annual temperature, or latitude for silicate lithologies. When atmospheric CO2 increases, evapotranspiration generally decreases due to progressive stomatal closure, and the soil CO2 pressure increases due to enhanced biospheric productivity. As a result, vertical drainage and soil acidity increase, promoting CO2 consumption by mineral weathering. We calculate an increase of about 3% of the CO2 consumption through silicate weathering (mol ha-1 yr-1) for 100 ppmv rise in CO2. Importantly, the sensitivity of the weathering system to the CO2 rise is not uniform and heavily depends on the climatic, lithologic, pedologic, and biospheric settings.

Dynamical Networks Characterization of Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, L.; Chapman, S. C.; Dods, J.; Gjerloev, J. W.

2017-12-01

Space weather can cause disturbances to satellite systems, impacting navigation technology and telecommunications; it can cause power loss and aviation disruption. A central aspect of the earth's magnetospheric response to space weather events are large scale and rapid changes in ionospheric current patterns. Space weather is highly dynamic and there are still many controversies about how the current system evolves in time. The recent SuperMAG initiative, collates ground-based vector magnetic field time series from over 200 magnetometers with 1-minute temporal resolution. In principle this combined dataset is an ideal candidate for quantification using dynamical networks. Network properties and parameters allow us to characterize the time dynamics of the full spatiotemporal pattern of the ionospheric current system. However, applying network methodologies to physical data presents new challenges. We establish whether a given pair of magnetometers are connected in the network by calculating their canonical cross correlation. The magnetometers are connected if their cross correlation exceeds a threshold. In our physical time series this threshold needs to be both station specific, as it varies with (non-linear) individual station sensitivity and location, and able to vary with season, which affects ground conductivity. Additionally, the earth rotates and therefore the ground stations move significantly on the timescales of geomagnetic disturbances. The magnetometers are non-uniformly spatially distributed. We will present new methodology which addresses these problems and in particular achieves dynamic normalization of the physical time series in order to form the network. Correlated disturbances across the magnetometers capture transient currents. Once the dynamical network has been obtained [1][2] from the full magnetometer data set it can be used to directly identify detailed inferred transient ionospheric current patterns and track their dynamics. We will show our first results that use network properties such as cliques and clustering coefficients to map these highly dynamic changes in ionospheric current patterns.[l] Dods et al, J. Geophys. Res 120, doi:10.1002/2015JA02 (2015). [2] Dods et al, J. Geophys. Res. 122, doi:10.1002/2016JA02 (2017).

Atmospheric forcing of sea ice leads in the Beaufort Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, B. J.; Hutchings, J.; Mahoney, A. R.; Shapiro, L. H.

2016-12-01

Leads in sea ice play an important role in the polar marine environment where they allow heat and moisture transfer between the oceans and atmosphere and act as travel pathways for both marine mammals and ships. Examining AVHRR thermal imagery of the Beaufort Sea, collected between 1994 and 2010, sea ice leads appear in repeating patterns and locations (Eicken et al 2005). The leads, resolved by AVHRR, are at least 250m wide (Mahoney et al 2012), thus the patterns described are for lead systems that extend up to hundreds of kilometers across the Beaufort Sea. We describe how these patterns are associated with the location of weather systems relative to the coastline. Mean sea level pressure and 10m wind fields from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to identify if particular lead patterns can be uniquely forecast based on the location of weather systems. Ice drift data from the NSIDC's Polar Pathfinder Daily 25km EASE-Grid Sea Ice Motion Vectors indicates the role shear along leads has on the motion of ice in the Beaufort Gyre. Lead formation is driven by 4 main factors: (i) coastal features such as promontories and islands influence the origin of leads by concentrating stresses within the ice pack; (ii) direction of the wind forcing on the ice pack determines the type of fracture, (iii) the location of the anticyclone (or cyclone) center determines the length of the fracture for certain patterns; and (iv) duration of weather conditions affects the width of the ice fracture zones. Movement of the ice pack on the leeward side of leads originating at promontories and islands increases, creating shear zones that control ice transport along the Alaska coast in winter. . Understanding how atmospheric conditions influence the large-scale motion of the ice pack is needed to design models that predict variability of the gyre and export of multi-year ice to lower latitudes.

Meteorological factors associated with abundance of airborne fungal spores over natural vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crandall, Sharifa G.; Gilbert, Gregory S.

2017-08-01

The abundance of airborne fungal spores in agricultural and urban settings increases with greater air temperature, relative humidity, or precipitation. The same meteorological factors that affect temporal patterns in spore abundance in managed environments also vary spatially across natural habitats in association with differences in vegetation structure. Here we investigated how temporal and spatial variation in aerial spore abundance is affected by abiotic (weather) and biotic (vegetation) factors as a foundation for predicting how fungi may respond to changes in weather and land-use patterns. We measured the phenology of airborne fungal spores across a mosaic of naturally occurring vegetation types at different time scales to describe (1) how spore abundance changes over time, (2) which local meteorological variables are good predictors for airborne spore density, and (3) whether spore abundance differs across vegetation types. Using an air volumetric vacuum sampler, we collected spore samples at 3-h intervals over a 120-h period in a mixed-evergreen forest and coastal prairie to measure diurnal, nocturnal, and total airborne spore abundance across vegetation types. Spore samples were also collected at weekly and monthly intervals in mixed-evergreen forest, redwood forest, and maritime chaparral vegetation types from 12 field sites across two years. We found greater airborne spore densities during the wetter winter months compared to the drier summer months. Mean total spore abundance in the mixed-evergreen forest was twice than in the coastal prairie, but there were no significant differences in total airborne spore abundance among mixed-evergreen forest, redwood forest, and maritime chaparral vegetation types. Weekly and monthly peaks in airborne spore abundance corresponded with rain events and peaks in soil moisture. Overall, temporal patterns in meteorological factors were much more important in determining airborne fungal spore abundance than the vegetation type. This suggests that overall patterns of fungal spore dynamics may be predictable across heterogeneous landscapes based on local weather patterns.

Satellite Microwave Remote Sensing for Environmental Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics

PubMed Central

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Kimball, John S.; VanRoekel-Patton, Denise L.; Hildreth, Michael B.; Wimberly, Michael C.

2012-01-01

Environmental variability has important influences on mosquito life cycles and understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mosquito populations is critical for mosquito control and vector-borne disease prevention. Meteorological data used for model-based predictions of mosquito abundance and life cycle dynamics are typically acquired from ground-based weather stations; however, data availability and completeness are often limited by sparse networks and resource availability. In contrast, environmental measurements from satellite remote sensing are more spatially continuous and can be retrieved automatically. This study compared environmental measurements from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E) and in situ weather station data to examine their ability to predict the abundance of two important mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex tarsalis) in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA from 2005 to 2010. The AMSR-E land parameters included daily surface water inundation fraction, surface air temperature, soil moisture, and microwave vegetation opacity. The AMSR-E derived models had better fits and higher forecasting accuracy than models based on weather station data despite the relatively coarse (25-km) spatial resolution of the satellite data. In the AMSR-E models, air temperature and surface water fraction were the best predictors of Aedes vexans, whereas air temperature and vegetation opacity were the best predictors of Cx. tarsalis abundance. The models were used to extrapolate spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns of climatic suitability for mosquitoes across eastern South Dakota. Our findings demonstrate that environmental metrics derived from satellite passive microwave radiometry are suitable for predicting mosquito population dynamics and can potentially improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease early warning systems. PMID:23049143

Spatial patterns of large natural fires in Sierra Nevada wilderness areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, B.M.; Kelly, M.; van Wagtendonk, J.W.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

The effects of fire on vegetation vary based on the properties and amount of existing biomass (or fuel) in a forest stand, weather conditions, and topography. Identifying controls over the spatial patterning of fire-induced vegetation change, or fire severity, is critical in understanding fire as a landscape scale process. We use gridded estimates of fire severity, derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery, to identify the biotic and abiotic factors contributing to the observed spatial patterns of fire severity in two large natural fires. Regression tree analysis indicates the importance of weather, topography, and vegetation variables in explaining fire severity patterns between the two fires. Relative humidity explained the highest proportion of total sum of squares throughout the Hoover fire (Yosemite National Park, 2001). The lowest fire severity corresponded with increased relative humidity. For the Williams fire (Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks, 2003) dominant vegetation type explains the highest proportion of sum of squares. Dominant vegetation was also important in determining fire severity throughout the Hoover fire. In both fires, forest stands that were dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) burned at highest severity, while red fir (Abies magnifica) stands corresponded with the lowest fire severities. There was evidence in both fires that lower wind speed corresponded with higher fire severity, although the highest fire severity in the Williams fire occurred during increased wind speed. Additionally, in the vegetation types that were associated with lower severity, burn severity was lowest when the time since last fire was fewer than 11 and 17 years for the Williams and Hoover fires, respectively. Based on the factors and patterns identified, managers can anticipate the effects of management ignited and naturally ignited fires at the forest stand and the landscape levels. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

2018-01-01

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

Doppler Feature Based Classification of Wind Profiler Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Swati; Chandrasekhar Sarma, T. V.; Lourde. R, Mary

2017-01-01

Wind Profilers (WP) are coherent pulsed Doppler radars in UHF and VHF bands. They are used for vertical profiling of wind velocity and direction. This information is very useful for weather modeling, study of climatic patterns and weather prediction. Observations at different height and different wind velocities are possible by changing the operating parameters of WP. A set of Doppler power spectra is the standard form of WP data. Wind velocity, direction and wind velocity turbulence at different heights can be derived from it. Modern wind profilers operate for long duration and generate approximately 4 megabytes of data per hour. The radar data stream contains Doppler power spectra from different radar configurations with echoes from different atmospheric targets. In order to facilitate systematic study, this data needs to be segregated according the type of target. A reliable automated target classification technique is required to do this job. Classical techniques of radar target identification use pattern matching and minimization of mean squared error, Euclidean distance etc. These techniques are not effective for the classification of WP echoes, as these targets do not have well-defined signature in Doppler power spectra. This paper presents an effective target classification technique based on range-Doppler features.

Weather and climate applications for rangeland restoration planning

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangeland ecosystems generally have an arid or semi-arid climatology, and are characterized by relatively high variability in seasonal and annual patterns of precipitation. Weather variability during seedling establishment is universally acknowledged as a principal determinant of rangeland seeding...

Chemical weathering and loess inputs to soils in New Zealand's Wairarapa region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukens, C. E.; Norton, K. P.

2017-12-01

Geochemical mass-balance approaches are commonly used in soils to evaluate patterns in chemical weathering. In conjuction with cosmogenic nuclide measurements of total denudation or soil production, mass-balance approaches have been used to constrain rates of chemical weathering across a variety of landscapes. Here we present geochemical data from a series of soil pits in the Wairarapa region of New Zealand's North Island, where rates of soil production equal rates of total denudation measured using 10Be at sites nearby (i.e., the landscape is in steady state). Soil density increases with depth, consistent with steady weathering over the average soil residence time. However, soil geochemistry indicates very little chemical weathering has occurred, and immobile elements (Zr, Ti, and V) are depleted in soils relative to bedrock. This is contrary to the expected observation, wherein immobile elements should be enriched in soils relative to parent bedrock as weathered mobile solutes are progressively removed from soil. Our geochemical measurements suggest contributions from an exernal source, which has a different chemical composition than the underlying bedrock. We hypothesize that loess constitutes a substantial influx of additional material, and use a mixing model to predict geochemical patterns within soil columns. We evaluate the relative contributions of several likely loess sources, including tephra from the nearby Taupo Volcanic Center, local loess deposits formed during glacial-interglacial transitions, and far-travelling Australian dust. Using an established mass-balance approach with multiple immobile elements, we calculate the fraction of mass in soils contributed by loess to be as much as 25%. Combined with 10Be-derived estimates of soil production, we calculate average loess fluxes up to 320 t/km2/yr, which are consistent with previous estimates of loess acculumation over the late Holocene. Accounting for loess input, we find that chemical weathering fluxes are remarkably low in these soils, which sit atop fractured graywacke that likely contributes very few weatherable primary minerals. The significant loess flux in this region may have important implications for estimates of total denudation and soil production, and must be accounted for to determine patterns in chemical weathering.

High-resolution downscaling for hydrological management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, Uwe; Rust, Henning; Meredith, Edmund; Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan; Vagenas, Christos

2017-04-01

Hydrological modellers and water managers require high-resolution climate data to model regional hydrologies and how these may respond to future changes in the large-scale climate. The ability to successfully model such changes and, by extension, critical infrastructure planning is often impeded by a lack of suitable climate data. This typically takes the form of too-coarse data from climate models, which are not sufficiently detailed in either space or time to be able to support water management decisions and hydrological research. BINGO (Bringing INnovation in onGOing water management; ) aims to bridge the gap between the needs of hydrological modellers and planners, and the currently available range of climate data, with the overarching aim of providing adaptation strategies for climate change-related challenges. Producing the kilometre- and sub-daily-scale climate data needed by hydrologists through continuous simulations is generally computationally infeasible. To circumvent this hurdle, we adopt a two-pronged approach involving (1) selective dynamical downscaling and (2) conditional stochastic weather generators, with the former presented here. We take an event-based approach to downscaling in order to achieve the kilometre-scale input needed by hydrological modellers. Computational expenses are minimized by identifying extremal weather patterns for each BINGO research site in lower-resolution simulations and then only downscaling to the kilometre-scale (convection permitting) those events during which such patterns occur. Here we (1) outline the methodology behind the selection of the events, and (2) compare the modelled precipitation distribution and variability (preconditioned on the extremal weather patterns) with that found in observations.

Developing New Strategies for Coping with Weather: Work in Alaskan and Canadian Coastal Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, D. E.

2014-12-01

A changing climate is manifested at ground level through the day to day weather. For all Northern residents - community, industrial, operational and response - the need to think about the weather is ever present. Northern residents, and in particular, indigenous community residents, fully understand implications of the weather, however, a comment that has been heard more often is that old ways of knowing are not as reliable as they once were. Weather patterns seem less consistent and subject to more rapid fluctuations. Compromised traditional ways of knowing puts those who need to travel or hunt at greater risk. One response to adapt to this emerging reality is to make greater use of western sources of information, such as weather data and charts provided by NOAA's National Weather Service or Environment Canada. The federal weather agencies have very large and complex forecasting regions to cover, and so one problem is that it can be difficult to provide perfectly tailored forecasts, that cover all possible problems, right down to the very local scale in the communities. Only those affected have a complete feel for their own concerns. Thus, key to a strategy to improve the utility of available weather information is a linking of local-scale manifestations of problematic weather to the larger-scale weather patterns. This is done in two ways: by direct consultation with Northern residents, and by installation of equipment to measure parameters of interest to residents, which are not already being measured. This talk will overview projects in coastal Alaska and Canada targeting this objective. The challenge of designing and conducting interviews, and then of harvesting relevant information, will be visited using examples from the three major contexts: coastal community, industrial, and operational. Examples of how local comments can be married to weather products will be presented.

A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.

PubMed

Ehelepola, N D B; Ariyaratne, Kusalika; Buddhadasa, W M N P; Ratnayake, Sunil; Wickramasinghe, Malani

2015-09-24

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

Looking at Earth from Space: Teacher's Guide with Activities for Earth and Space Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steele, Colleen (Editor); Steele, Colleen; Ryan, William F.

1995-01-01

The Maryland Pilot Earth Science and Technology Education Network (MAPS-NET) project was sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to enrich teacher preparation and classroom learning in the area of Earth system science. This publication includes a teacher's guide that replicates material taught during a graduate-level course of the project and activities developed by the teachers. The publication was developed to provide teachers with a comprehensive approach to using satellite imagery to enhance science education. The teacher's guide is divided into topical chapters and enables teachers to expand their knowledge of the atmosphere, common weather patterns, and remote sensing. Topics include: weather systems and satellite imagery including mid-latitude weather systems; wave motion and the general circulation; cyclonic disturbances and baroclinic instability; clouds; additional common weather patterns; satellite images and the internet; environmental satellites; orbits; and ground station set-up. Activities are listed by suggested grade level and include the following topics: using weather symbols; forecasting the weather; cloud families and identification; classification of cloud types through infrared Automatic Picture Transmission (APT) imagery; comparison of visible and infrared imagery; cold fronts; to ski or not to ski (imagery as a decision making tool), infrared and visible satellite images; thunderstorms; looping satellite images; hurricanes; intertropical convergence zone; and using weather satellite images to enhance a study of the Chesapeake Bay. A list of resources is also included.

The Effect of Weather Events on Truck Traffic Patterns Using Fixed and Mobile Traffic Sensors

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-20

Connected vehicle applications related to road weather management and enabling systems are being designed to collect and take advantage of connected vehicle data and information transmissions to increase situational awareness, improve roadway levels ...

Recreational use assessment of water-based activities, using time-lapse construction cameras.

PubMed

Sunger, Neha; Teske, Sondra S; Nappier, Sharon; Haas, Charles N

2012-01-01

Recreational exposure to surface waters during periods of increased pathogen concentration may lead to a significantly higher risk of illness. However, estimates of elementary exposure factors necessary to evaluate health risk (i.e., usage distributions and exposure durations) are not available for many non-swimming water-related activities. No prior studies have assessed non-swimming water exposure with respect to factors leading to impaired water quality from increased pathogen concentration, such as weather condition (rain events produce increased runoff and sewer overflows) and type of day (heavy recreational periods). We measured usage patterns and evaluated the effect of weather and type of day at eight water sites located within Philadelphia, by using a novel "time lapse photography" technology during three peak recreational seasons (May-September) 2008-2010. Camera observations validated with simultaneous in-person surveys exhibited a strong correlation (R(2)=0.81 to 0.96) between the two survey techniques, indicating that the application of remote photography in collecting human exposure data was appropriate. Recreational activities usage varied more on a temporal basis than due to inclement weather. Only 14% (6 out of 44) of the site-specific activity combinations showed dry weather preference, whereas 41.5% (17 out of 41) of the combinations indicated greater usage on weekends as compared with weekday. In general, the log normal distribution described the playing and wading duration distribution, while the gamma distribution was the best fit for fishing durations. Remote photography provided unbiased, real-time human exposure data and was less personnel intensive compared with traditional survey methods. However, there are potential limitations associated with remote surveillance data related to its limited view. This is the first study to report that time lapse cameras can be successfully applied to assess water-based human recreational patterns and can provide precise exposure statistics for non-swimming recreational exposures.

Atmospheric turbulence triggers pronounced diel pattern in karst carbonate geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, M.; Serrano-Ortiz, P.; Kowalski, A. S.; Goddéris, Y.; Sánchez-Cañete, E. P.; Ciais, P.; Domingo, F.; Cuezva, S.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Longdoz, B.; Yakir, D.; Van Grieken, R.; Schott, J.; Cardell, C.; Janssens, I. A.

2013-07-01

CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is key to understanding the feedbacks between climate change and the land surface. In regions with carbonaceous parent material, CO2 exchange patterns occur that cannot be explained by biological processes, such as disproportionate outgassing during the daytime or nighttime CO2 uptake during periods when all vegetation is senescent. Neither of these phenomena can be attributed to carbonate weathering reactions, since their CO2 exchange rates are too small. Soil ventilation induced by high atmospheric turbulence is found to explain atypical CO2 exchange between carbonaceous systems and the atmosphere. However, by strongly altering subsurface CO2 concentrations, ventilation can be expected to influence carbonate weathering rates. By imposing ventilation-driven CO2 outgassing in a carbonate weathering model, we show here that carbonate geochemistry is accelerated and does play a surprisingly large role in the observed CO2 exchange pattern of a semi-arid ecosystem. We found that by rapidly depleting soil CO2 during the daytime, ventilation disturbs soil carbonate equilibria and therefore strongly magnifies daytime carbonate precipitation and associated CO2 production. At night, ventilation ceases and the depleted CO2 concentrations increase steadily. Dissolution of carbonate is now enhanced, which consumes CO2 and largely compensates for the enhanced daytime carbonate precipitation. This is why only a relatively small effect on global carbonate weathering rates is to be expected. On the short term, however, ventilation has a drastic effect on synoptic carbonate weathering rates, resulting in a pronounced diel pattern that exacerbates the non-biological behavior of soil-atmosphere CO2 exchanges in dry regions with carbonate soils.

The association of weather and mortality in Bangladesh from 1983–2009

PubMed Central

Alam, Nurul; Begum, Dilruba; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2012-01-01

Introduction The association of weather and mortality have not been widely studied in subtropical monsoon regions, particularly in Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the association of weather and mortality (measured with temperature and rainfall), adjusting for time trend and seasonal patterns in Abhoynagar, Bangladesh. Material and methods A sample vital registration system (SVRS) was set up in 1982 to facilitate operational research in family planning and maternal and child health. SVRS provided data on death counts and population from 1983–2009. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department provided data on daily temperature and rainfall for the same period. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions was used, allowing for over-dispersion, including lagged weather parameters, and adjusting for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software. Results Both weekly mean temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns. After adjusting for seasonal pattern and time trend, weekly mean temperatures (lag 0) below the 25th percentile and between the 25th and 75th percentiles were associated with increased mortality risk, particularly in females and adults aged 20–59 years by 2.3–2.4% for every 1°C decrease. Temperature above the 75th percentile did not increase the risk. Every 1 mm increase in rainfall up to 14 mm of weekly average rainfall over lag 0–4 weeks was associated with decreased mortality risks. Rainfall above 14 mm was associated with increased mortality risk. Conclusion The relationships between temperature, rainfall and mortality reveal the importance of understanding the current factors contributing to adaptation and acclimatization, and how these can be enhanced to reduce negative impacts from weather. PMID:23195512

Sensitivity of WRF precipitation field to assimilation sources in northeastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzana, Jesús; Merino, Andrés; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-González, Sergio; Gascón, Estíbaliz; Hermida, Lucía; Sánchez, José Luis; López, Laura; Marcos, José Luis

2015-04-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) of precipitation is a challenge. Models predict precipitation after solving many physical processes. In particular, mesoscale NWP models have different parameterizations, such as microphysics, cumulus or radiation schemes. These facilitate, according to required spatial and temporal resolutions, precipitation fields with increasing reliability. Nevertheless, large uncertainties are inherent to precipitation forecasting. Consequently, assimilation methods are very important. The Atmospheric Physics Group at the University of León in Spain and the Castile and León Supercomputing Center carry out daily weather prediction based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. Forecasts of severe precipitation affecting the Ebro Valley, in the southern Pyrenees range of northeastern Spain, are crucial in the decision-making process for managing reservoirs or initializing runoff models. These actions can avert floods and ensure uninterrupted economic activity in the area. We investigated a set of cases corresponding to intense or severe precipitation patterns, using a rain gauge network. Simulations were performed with a dual objective, i.e., to analyze forecast improvement using a specific assimilation method, and to study the sensitivity of model outputs to different types of assimilation data. A WRF forecast model initialized by an NCEP SST analysis was used as the control run. The assimilation was based on the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) developed by NOAA. The MADIS data used were METAR, maritime, ACARS, radiosonde, and satellite products. The results show forecast improvement using the suggested assimilation method, and differences in the accuracy of forecast precipitation patterns varied with the assimilation data source.

Forecasting of hourly load by pattern recognition in a small area power system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dehdashti-Shahrokh, A.

1982-01-01

An intuitive, logical, simple and efficient method of forecasting hourly load in a small area power system is presented. A pattern recognition approach is used in developing the forecasting model. Pattern recognition techniques are powerful tools in the field of artificial intelligence (cybernetics) and simulate the way the human brain operates to make decisions. Pattern recognition is generally used in analysis of processes where the total physical nature behind the process variation is unkown but specific kinds of measurements explain their behavior. In this research basic multivariate analyses, in conjunction with pattern recognition techniques, are used to develop a linearmore » deterministic model to forecast hourly load. This method assumes that load patterns in the same geographical area are direct results of climatological changes (weather sensitive load), and have occurred in the past as a result of similar climatic conditions. The algorithm described in here searches for the best possible pattern from a seasonal library of load and weather data in forecasting hourly load. To accommodate the unpredictability of weather and the resulting load, the basic twenty-four load pattern was divided into eight three-hour intervals. This division was made to make the model adaptive to sudden climatic changes. The proposed method offers flexible lead times of one to twenty-four hours. The results of actual data testing had indicated that this proposed method is computationally efficient, highly adaptive, with acceptable data storage size and accuracy that is comparable to many other existing methods.« less

El Niño and human health.

PubMed Central

Kovats, R. S.

2000-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the best known example of quasi-periodic natural climate variability on the interannual time scale. It comprises changes in sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean (El Niño) and changes in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific Basin (the Southern Oscillation), together with resultant effects on world weather. El Niño events occur at intervals of 2-7 years. In certain countries around the Pacific and beyond, El Niño is associated with extreme weather conditions that can cause floods and drought. Globally it is linked to an increased impact of natural disasters. There is evidence that ENSO is associated with a heightened risk of certain vector-borne diseases in specific geographical areas where weather patterns are linked with the ENSO cycle and disease control is limited. This is particularly true for malaria, but associations are also suggested in respect of epidemics of other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases that can be triggered by extreme weather conditions. Seasonal climate forecasts, predicting the likelihood of weather patterns several months in advance, can be used to provide early indicators of epidemic risk, particularly for malaria. Interdisciplinary research and cooperation are required in order to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and weather extremes. PMID:11019461

Modeling rock weathering in small watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacheco, Fernando A. L.; Van der Weijden, Cornelis H.

2014-05-01

Many mountainous watersheds are conceived as aquifer media where multiple groundwater flow systems have developed (Tóth, 1963), and as bimodal landscapes where differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock has occurred (Wahrhaftig, 1965). The results of a weathering algorithm (Pacheco and Van der Weijden, 2012a, 2014), which integrates topographic, hydrologic, rock structure and chemical data to calculate weathering rates at the watershed scale, validated the conceptual models in the River Sordo basin, a small watershed located in the Marão cordillera (North of Portugal). The coupling of weathering, groundwater flow and landscape evolution analyses, as accomplished in this study, is innovative and represents a remarkable achievement towards regionalization of rock weathering at the watershed scale. The River Sordo basin occupies an area of approximately 51.2 km2 and was shaped on granite and metassediment terrains between the altitudes 185-1300 m. The groundwater flow system is composed of recharge areas located at elevations >700 m, identified on the basis of δ18O data. Discharge cells comprehend terminations of local, intermediate and regional flow systems, identified on the basis of spring density patterns, infiltration depth estimates based on 87Sr/86Sr data, and spatial distributions of groundwater pH and natural mineralization. Intermediate and regional flow systems, defined where infiltration depths >125 m, develop solely along the contact zone between granites and metassediments, because fractures in this region are profound and their density is very large. Weathering is accelerated where rocks are covered by thick soils, being five times faster relative to sectors of the basin where rocks are covered by thin soils. Differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock is also revealed by the spatial distribution of calculated aquifer hydraulic diffusivities and groundwater travel times.

Analysis of weather patterns associated with air quality degradation and potential health impacts

EPA Science Inventory

Emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources into the atmosphere are determined in large measure by prevailing weather conditions through complex physical, dynamical and chemical processes. Air pollution episodes are characterized by degradation in air quality as reflected by...

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C.

2013-05-01

Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.

Public Health System Response to Extreme Weather Events.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Hunter, Jennifer C; Yang, Jane E; Crawley, Adam W; Aragón, Tomás J

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events, unpredictable and often far-reaching, constitute a persistent challenge for public health preparedness. The goal of this research is to inform public health systems improvement through examination of extreme weather events, comparing across cases to identify recurring patterns in event and response characteristics. Structured telephone-based interviews were conducted with representatives from health departments to assess characteristics of recent extreme weather events and agencies' responses. Response activities were assessed using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities framework. Challenges that are typical of this response environment are reported. Forty-five local health departments in 20 US states. Respondents described public health system responses to 45 events involving tornadoes, flooding, wildfires, winter weather, hurricanes, and other storms. Events of similar scale were infrequent for a majority (62%) of the communities involved; disruption to critical infrastructure was universal. Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities considered most essential involved environmental health investigations, mass care and sheltering, surveillance and epidemiology, information sharing, and public information and warning. Unanticipated response activities or operational constraints were common. We characterize extreme weather events as a "quadruple threat" because (1) direct threats to population health are accompanied by damage to public health protective and community infrastructure, (2) event characteristics often impose novel and pervasive burdens on communities, (3) responses rely on critical infrastructures whose failure both creates new burdens and diminishes response capacity, and (4) their infrequency and scale further compromise response capacity. Given the challenges associated with extreme weather events, we suggest opportunities for organizational learning and preparedness improvements.

Meteorological phenomena in Western classical orchestral music

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P. D.; Aplin, K. L.

2012-12-01

The creative output of composers, writers, and artists is often influenced by their surroundings. To give a literary example, it has been claimed recently that some of the characters in Oliver Twist and A Christmas Carol were based on real-life people who lived near Charles Dickens in London. Of course, an important part of what we see and hear is not only the people with whom we interact, but also our geophysical surroundings. Of all the geophysical phenomena to influence us, the weather is arguably the most significant, because we are exposed to it directly and daily. The weather was a great source of inspiration for Monet, Constable, and Turner, who are known for their scientifically accurate paintings of the skies. But to what extent does weather inspire composers? The authors of this presentation, who are atmospheric scientists by day but amateur classical musicians by night, have been contemplating this question. We have built a systematic musical database, which has allowed us to catalogue and analyze the frequencies with which weather is depicted in a sample of classical orchestral music. The depictions vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. We have found that composers are generally influenced by their own environment in the type of weather they choose to represent. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Reference: Aplin KL and Williams PD (2011) Meteorological phenomena in Western classical orchestral music. Weather, 66(11), pp 300-306. doi:10.1002/wea.765

49 CFR 602.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... again in the geographic area in which the public transportation system is located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate patterns. Serious damage...

49 CFR 602.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... again in the geographic area in which the public transportation system is located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate patterns. Serious damage...

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Effects of weather on the abundance and distribution on populations of 103 breeding bird species across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, A. J.; Gorzo, J.; Bateman, B. L.; Heglund, P. J.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Thogmartin, W.; Vavrus, S. J.; Radeloff, V.

2016-12-01

Often, fewer birds are often observed in an area experiencing extreme weather, as local populations tend to leave an area (via out-migration or concentration in refugia) or experience a change in population size (via mortality or reduced fecundity). Further, weather patterns are often coherent over large areas so unsuitable weather may threaten large portions of an entire species range simultaneously. However, beyond a few iconic irruptive species, rarely have studies applied both the necessary scale and sensitivity required to assess avian population responses over entire species range. Here, we examined the effects of pre-breeding season weather on the distribution and abundances of 103 North American bird species from the late 1966-2010 using observed abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared abundances with measures of drought and temperature over each species' range, and with three atmospheric teleconnections that describe large-scale circulation patterns influencing conditions on the ground. More than 90% of the species responded to at least one of our five weather variables. Grassland bird species tended to be most responsive to weather conditions and forest birds the least, though we found relations among all habitat types. For most species, the response was movement rather than large effects on the overall population size. Maps of these responses indicate that concentration and out-migration are both common strategies for coping with challenging weather conditions across a species range. The dynamic distribution of many bird species makes clear the need to account for temporal variability in conservation planning, as areas that are less important for a species' breeding success in most years may be very important in years with abnormal weather conditions.

[Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

PubMed

Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

2015-01-01

The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics.

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches

PubMed Central

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D.; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability. PMID:27560980

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches.

PubMed

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability.

A HIERARCHIAL STOCHASTIC MODEL OF LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND MULTIPLE STATION DAILY PRECIPITATION

EPA Science Inventory

A stochastic model of weather states and concurrent daily precipitation at multiple precipitation stations is described. our algorithms are invested for classification of daily weather states; k means, fuzzy clustering, principal components, and principal components coupled with ...

Silica Retention and Enrichment in Open-System Chemical Weathering on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yen, A. S.; Ming, D. W.; Gellert, R.; Clark, B. C.; Mittlefehldt, D. W.; Morris, R. V.; Thompson, L. M.; Berger, J.

2015-01-01

Chemical signatures of weathering are evident in the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) datasets from Gusev Crater, Meridiani Planum, and Gale Crater. Comparisons across the landing sites show consistent patterns indicating silica retention and/or enrichment in open-system aqueous alteration.

Are existing irrigation salinity leaching requirement guidelines overly conservative or obsolete?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water scarcity and increased frequency of drought, resulting from erratic weather attributable to climatic change or alterations in historical weather patterns, have caused greater scrutiny of irrigated agriculture’s demand on water resources. The traditional guidelines for the calculation of the c...

Investigating Anomalies in the Output Generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decicco, Nicholas; Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David

2015-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is an advanced mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model comprised of two numerical cores, the Numerical Mesoscale Modeling (NMM) core, and the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. An investigation was done to determine the source of erroneous output generated by the NMM core. In particular were the appearance of zero values at regularly spaced grid cells in output fields and the NMM core's evident (mis)use of static geographic information at a resolution lower than the nesting level for which the core is performing computation. A brief discussion of the high-level modular architecture of the model is presented as well as methods utilized to identify the cause of these problems. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

Spatial patterns and broad-scale weather cues of beech mast seeding in Europe.

PubMed

Vacchiano, Giorgio; Hacket-Pain, Andrew; Turco, Marco; Motta, Renzo; Maringer, Janet; Conedera, Marco; Drobyshev, Igor; Ascoli, Davide

2017-07-01

Mast seeding is a crucial population process in many tree species, but its spatio-temporal patterns and drivers at the continental scale remain unknown . Using a large dataset (8000 masting observations across Europe for years 1950-2014) we analysed the spatial pattern of masting across the entire geographical range of European beech, how it is influenced by precipitation, temperature and drought, and the temporal and spatial stability of masting-weather correlations. Beech masting exhibited a general distance-dependent synchronicity and a pattern structured in three broad geographical groups consistent with continental climate regimes. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression revealed a general pattern of beech masting correlating negatively with temperature in the summer 2 yr before masting, and positively with summer temperature 1 yr before masting (i.e. 2T model). The temperature difference between the two previous summers (DeltaT model) was also a good predictor. Moving correlation analysis applied to the longest eight chronologies (74-114 yr) revealed stable correlations between temperature and masting, confirming consistency in weather cues across space and time. These results confirm widespread dependency of masting on temperature and lend robustness to the attempts to reconstruct and predict mast years using temperature data. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Linking climate change and health outcomes: Examining the relationship between temperature, precipitation and birth weight in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grace, Kathryn; Davenport, Frank; Hanson, Heidi; Funk, Christopher C.; Shukla, Shraddhanand

2015-01-01

This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data derived from satellite and ground-based weather stations. Observed weather patterns during various stages of pregnancy were also used to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on birth weight outcomes. In our empirical model we allowed the effect of weather factors to vary by the dominant food production strategy (livelihood zone) in a given region as well as by household wealth, mother's education and birth season. This allowed us to determine if certain populations are more or less vulnerable to unexpected weather changes after adjusting for known covariates. Finally we measured effect size by observing differences in birth weight outcomes in women who have one low birth weight experience and at least one healthy birth weight baby. The results indicated that climate does indeed impact birth weight and at a level comparable, in some cases, to the impact of increasing women's education or household electricity status.

Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.

PubMed

Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini

2017-08-01

As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

Is countershading camouflage robust to lighting change due to weather?

PubMed

Penacchio, Olivier; Lovell, P George; Harris, Julie M

2018-02-01

Countershading is a pattern of coloration thought to have evolved in order to implement camouflage. By adopting a pattern of coloration that makes the surface facing towards the sun darker and the surface facing away from the sun lighter, the overall amount of light reflected off an animal can be made more uniformly bright. Countershading could hence contribute to visual camouflage by increasing background matching or reducing cues to shape. However, the usefulness of countershading is constrained by a particular pattern delivering 'optimal' camouflage only for very specific lighting conditions. In this study, we test the robustness of countershading camouflage to lighting change due to weather, using human participants as a 'generic' predator. In a simulated three-dimensional environment, we constructed an array of simple leaf-shaped items and a single ellipsoidal target 'prey'. We set these items in two light environments: strongly directional 'sunny' and more diffuse 'cloudy'. The target object was given the optimal pattern of countershading for one of these two environment types or displayed a uniform pattern. By measuring detection time and accuracy, we explored whether and how target detection depended on the match between the pattern of coloration on the target object and scene lighting. Detection times were longest when the countershading was appropriate to the illumination; incorrectly camouflaged targets were detected with a similar pattern of speed and accuracy to uniformly coloured targets. We conclude that structural changes in light environment, such as caused by differences in weather, do change the effectiveness of countershading camouflage.

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia.

PubMed

Huang, Cunrui; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Barnett, Adrian G

2015-01-01

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20-30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lateral weathering gradients in glaciated catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, K. J.; Bailey, S. W.; Ross, D. S.; Strahm, B. D.; Schreiber, M. E.

2016-12-01

Mineral dissolution and the distribution of weathering products are fundamental processes that drive development and habitability of the Earth's critical zone; yet, the spatial configuration of these processes in some systems is not well understood. Feedbacks between hydrologic flows and weathering fluxes are necessary to understanding how the critical zone develops. In upland glaciated catchments of the northeastern USA, primary mineral dissolution and the distribution of weathering products are spatially distinct and predictable over short distances. Hillslopes, where shallow soils force lateral hydrologic fluxes through accumulated organic matter, produce downslope gradients in mineral depletion, weathering product accumulation, soil development, and solute chemistry. We propose that linked gradients in hydrologic flow paths, soil depth, and vegetation lead to predictable differences in the location and extent of mineral dissolution in regolith (soil, subsoil, and rock fragments) and bedrock, and that headwater catchments within the upland glaciated northeast show a common architecture across hillslopes as a result. Examples of these patterns and processes will be illustrated using observations from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire where laterally distinct soils with strong morphological and biogeochemical gradients have been documented. Patterns in mineral depletion and product accumulation are essential in predicting how ecosystems will respond to stresses, disturbance, and management.

Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

2016-11-01

Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Cluster analysis of intradiurnal holm oak pollen cycles at peri-urban and rural sampling sites in southwestern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Ceballos, M. A.; García-Mozo, H.; Galán, C.

2015-08-01

The impact of regional and local weather and of local topography on intradiurnal variations in airborne pollen levels was assessed by analysing bi-hourly holm oak ( Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.) pollen counts at two sampling stations located 40 km apart, in southwestern Spain (Cordoba city and El Cabril nature reserve) over the period 2010-2011. Pollen grains were captured using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Analysis of regional weather conditions was based on the computation of backward trajectories using the HYSPLIT model. Sampling days were selected on the basis of phenological data; rainy days were eliminated, as were days lying outside a given range of percentiles (P95-P5). Analysis of cycles for the study period, as a whole, revealed differences between sampling sites, with peak bi-hourly pollen counts at night in Cordoba and at midday in El Cabril. Differences were also noted in the influence of surface weather conditions (temperature, relative humidity and wind). Cluster analysis of diurnal holm oak pollen cycles revealed the existence of five clusters at each sampling site. Analysis of backward trajectories highlighted specific regional air-flow patterns associated with each site. Findings indicated the contribution of both nearby and distant pollen sources to diurnal cycles. The combined use of cluster analysis and meteorological analysis proved highly suitable for charting the impact of local weather conditions on airborne pollen-count patterns. This method, and the specific tools used here, could be used not only to study diurnal variations in counts for other pollen types and in other biogeographical settings, but also in a number of other research fields involving airborne particle transport modelling, e.g. radionuclide transport in emergency preparedness exercises.

Cluster analysis of intradiurnal holm oak pollen cycles at peri-urban and rural sampling sites in southwestern Spain.

PubMed

Hernández-Ceballos, M A; García-Mozo, H; Galán, C

2015-08-01

The impact of regional and local weather and of local topography on intradiurnal variations in airborne pollen levels was assessed by analysing bi-hourly holm oak (Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.) pollen counts at two sampling stations located 40 km apart, in southwestern Spain (Cordoba city and El Cabril nature reserve) over the period 2010-2011. Pollen grains were captured using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Analysis of regional weather conditions was based on the computation of backward trajectories using the HYSPLIT model. Sampling days were selected on the basis of phenological data; rainy days were eliminated, as were days lying outside a given range of percentiles (P95-P5). Analysis of cycles for the study period, as a whole, revealed differences between sampling sites, with peak bi-hourly pollen counts at night in Cordoba and at midday in El Cabril. Differences were also noted in the influence of surface weather conditions (temperature, relative humidity and wind). Cluster analysis of diurnal holm oak pollen cycles revealed the existence of five clusters at each sampling site. Analysis of backward trajectories highlighted specific regional air-flow patterns associated with each site. Findings indicated the contribution of both nearby and distant pollen sources to diurnal cycles. The combined use of cluster analysis and meteorological analysis proved highly suitable for charting the impact of local weather conditions on airborne pollen-count patterns. This method, and the specific tools used here, could be used not only to study diurnal variations in counts for other pollen types and in other biogeographical settings, but also in a number of other research fields involving airborne particle transport modelling, e.g. radionuclide transport in emergency preparedness exercises.

Weather-forced variations of Central and East Pacific ENSO events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. A.; Newman, M.; Shin, S.

2010-12-01

It has been suggested that a possible outcome of climate change is an increase in the occurrence of “Modoki” or central Pacific El Nino events relative to canonical eastern Pacific El Nino events, and that this change may already be occurring. Such a determination, however, is complicated by possible natural variations of the two types of events. How large a change in the relative occurrence can be expected from purely internal variability? To explore this question, a “patterns-based” red noise null hypothesis is constructed from 40 years of observed seasonally-averaged SST, 20 deg C thermocline depth, and surface zonal wind stress anomalies. Patterns-based (or multivariate) red noise differs from “local” (or univariate) red noise since it allows for non-local advective processes; for example, weather noise driving surface wind stress in one location to produce an ocean response in a different location. It is shown that natural random variations of the central Pacific to east Pacific El Nino occurrence ratio are large enough that they could account for all past observed differences as well as all differences found in the SRESA1B runs of all AR4 climate models. Additionally, the correlation between Nino3 and Nino4 SST indices over 30-yr periods can range between 0.7 and 0.9 simply due to such variations in noise, with apparent multidecadal “trends” during which the value increases or decreases. Further analysis shows the different spatial patterns of “noise” (i.e., random weather forcing) that can lead to the development of central vs. eastern Pacific ENSO events or various combinations thereof.

Detecting Nanophase Weathering Products with CheMin: Reference Intensity Ratios of Allophane, Aluminosilicate Gel, and Ferrihydrite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampe, E. B.; Bish, D. L.; Chipera, S. J.; Morris, R. V.; Achilles, C. N.; Ming, D W.; Blake, D. F.; Anderson, R. C.; Bristow, T. F.; Crisp, A.;

Analysis of Impact of Tropical Cyclone Blance on Rainfall at Kupang Region Based on Atmospheric Condition and Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roguna, S.; Saragih, I. J. A.; Siregar, P. S.; Julius, A. M.

2018-04-01

The Tropical Depression previously identified on March 3, 2017, at Arafuru Sea has grown to Tropical Cyclone Blance on March 5, 2017. The existence of Tropical Cyclone Blance gave impacts like increasing rainfall for some regions in Indonesia until March 7, 2017, such as Kupang. The increase of rainfall cannot be separated from the atmospheric dynamics related to convection processes and the formation of clouds. Analysis of weather parameters is made such as vorticity to observe vertical motion over the study area, vertical velocity to see the speed of lift force in the atmosphere, wind to see patterns of air mass distribution and rainfall to see the increase of rainfall compared to several days before the cyclone. Analysis of satellite imagery data is used as supporting analysis to see clouds imagery and movement direction of the cyclone. The results of weather parameters analysis show strong vorticity and lift force of air mass support the growth of Cumulonimbus clouds, cyclonic patterns on wind streamline and significant increase of rainfall compared to previous days. The results of satellite imagery analysis show the convective clouds over Kupang and surrounding areas when this phenomena and cyclone pattern moved down from Arafuru Sea towards the western part of Australia.

Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, Karin; Kapnick, Sarah; Vecchi, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Traditionally, climate change research has focused on changes in mean climate (e.g. global mean temperature, sea level rise, glacier melt) or change in extreme events (e.g. hurricanes, extreme precipitation, droughts, heat waves, wild fires). Though extreme events have the potential to disrupt society, extreme conditions are rare by definition. In contrast, mild weather occurs frequently and many human activities are built around it. Examples of such activities include football games, dog walks, bike rides, and outdoor weddings, but also activities of direct economic impact, e.g. construction work, infrastructure projects, road or rail transportation, air travel, and landscaping projects. Absence of mild weather impacts society in various way, understanding current and future mild weather is therefore of high scientific interest. We present a global analysis of mild weather based on simple and relatable criteria and we explore changes in mild weather occurrence in response to radiative forcing. A high-resolution global climate model, GFDL HiFLOR, is used to allow for investigation of local features and changes. In response to RCP4.5, we find a slight global mean decrease in the annual number of mild days projected both in the near future (-4 d/yr, 2016-2035) and at the end of this century (-10 d/yr, 2081-2100). Projected regional and seasonal redistributions of mild days are substantially greater. Tropical regions are projected to see large decreases, in the mid-latitudes small increases in the number of mild days are projected. Mediterranean climates are projected to see a shift of mild weather away from the local summer to the shoulder seasons. These changes are larger than the interannual variability of mild weather caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, we use reanalysis data to show an observed global decrease in the recent past, and we verify that these observed regional changes in mild weather resemble the projections.

Modeling habitat and environmental factors affecting mosquito abundance in Chesapeake, Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellows, Alan Scott

The models I present in this dissertation were designed to enable mosquito control agencies in the mid-Atlantic region that oversee large jurisdictions to rapidly track the spatial and temporal distributions of mosquito species, especially those species known to be vectors of eastern equine encephalitis and West Nile virus. I was able to keep these models streamlined, user-friendly, and not cost-prohibitive using empirically based digital data to analyze mosquito-abundance patterns in real landscapes. This research is presented in three major chapters: (II) a series of semi-static habitat suitability indices (HSI) grounded on well-documented associations between mosquito abundance and environmental variables, (III) a dynamic model for predicting both spatial and temporal mosquito abundance based on a topographic soil moisture index and recent weather patterns, and (IV) a set of protocols laid out to aid mosquito control agencies for the use of these models. The HSIs (Chapter II) were based on relationships of mosquitoes to digital surrogates of soil moisture and vegetation characteristics. These models grouped mosquitoes species derived from similarities in habitat requirements, life-cycle type, and vector competence. Quantification of relationships was determined using multiple linear regression models. As in Chapter II, relationships between mosquito abundance and environmental factors in Chapter III were quantified using regression models. However, because this model was, in part, a function of changes in weather patterns, it enables the prediction of both 'where' and 'when' mosquito outbreaks are likely to occur. This model is distinctive among similar studies in the literature because of my use of NOAA's NEXRAD Doppler radar (3-hr precipitation accumulation data) to quantify the spatial and temporal distributions in precipitation accumulation. \\ Chapter IV is unique among the chapters in this dissertation because in lieu of presenting new research, it summarizes the preprocessing steps and analyses used in the HSIs and the dynamic, weather-based, model generated in Chapters II and III. The purpose of this chapter is to provide the reader and potential users with the necessary protocols for modeling the spatial and temporal abundances and distributions of mosquitoes, with emphasis on Culiseta melanura, in a real-world landscape of the mid-Atlantic region. This chapter also provides enhancements that could easily be incorporated into an environmentally sensitive integrated pest management program.

Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Haile, Menghestab

2005-11-29

Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term, impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises.

Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Haile, Menghestab

2005-01-01

Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises. PMID:16433102

Local weather conditions have complex effects on the growth of blue tit nestlings.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Hartley, Ian R

2016-08-01

Adverse weather conditions are expected to result in impaired nestling development in birds, but empirical studies have provided equivocal support for such a relationship. This may be because the negative effects of adverse weather conditions are masked by parental effects. Globally, ambient temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds are all expected to increase in a changing climate and so there is a need for a better understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and nestling growth. Here, we describe a correlative study that examined the relationships between local temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds and the growth of individual blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nestlings in relation to their hatching order and sex. We found that changes in a range of morphological characters were negatively related to both temperature and wind speed, but positively related to rainfall. These patterns were further influenced by the hatching order of the nestlings but not by nestling sex. This suggests that the predicted changes in local weather conditions may have complex effects on nestling growth, but that parents may be able to mitigate the adverse effects via adaptive parental effects. We therefore conclude that local weather conditions have complex effects on avian growth and the implications for patterns of avian growth in a changing climate are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

14 CFR Appendix D to Part 141 - Commercial Pilot Certification Course

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Board; (3) Basic aerodynamics and the principles of flight; (4) Meteorology, to include recognition of critical weather situations, windshear recognition and avoidance, and the use of aeronautical weather... pattern); and (iv) 3 hours in a gyroplane in preparation for the practical test within 60 days preceding...

14 CFR Appendix D to Part 141 - Commercial Pilot Certification Course

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Board; (3) Basic aerodynamics and the principles of flight; (4) Meteorology, to include recognition of critical weather situations, windshear recognition and avoidance, and the use of aeronautical weather... pattern); and (iv) 3 hours in a gyroplane in preparation for the practical test within 60 days preceding...

Potential climate change impacts on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Ying Tang; Lifeng Luo; Shiyuan Zhong; Julie Winkler; Xindi. Bian

2015-01-01

Researchers at Michigan State University and the Forest Service's Northern Research Station worked on a joint study to examine the possible effects of future global and regional climate change on the occurrence of fire-weather patterns often associated with extreme and erratic wildfire behavior in the United States.

Dendroecological Analysis of Cordia alliodora, Pseudobombax septenatum and Annona spraguei in Central Panama

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall; Bernard R. Parresol; S. Joseph Wright

1995-01-01

Several plant communities in central Panama, each community located near a weather station, contain trees with annual growth rings, i.e. Cordia alliodora, Pseudobombax septenatum, and Annona spraguei. Tree-ring data are particularly valuable when concomitant weather information is readily available. Patterns of...

Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

Generation of High Resolution Water Vapour Fields from GPS Observations and Integration With ECMWF and MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, C.; Li, Z.; Penna, N. T.

2016-12-01

Precipitable water vapour (PWV) can be routinely retrieved from ground-based GPS arrays in all-weather conditions and also in real-time. But to provide dense spatial coverage maps, for example for calibrating SAR images, for correcting atmospheric effects in Network RTK GPS positioning and which may be used for numerical weather prediction, the pointwise GPS PWV measurements must be interpolated. Several previous interpolation studies have addressed the importance of the elevation dependency of water vapour, but it is often a challenge to separate elevation-dependent tropospheric delays from turbulent components. We present a tropospheric turbulence iterative decomposition model that decouples the total PWV into (i) a stratified component highly correlated with topography which therefore delineates the vertical troposphere profile, and (ii) a turbulent component resulting from disturbance processes (e.g., severe weather) in the troposphere which trigger uncertain patterns in space and time. We will demonstrate that the iterative decoupled interpolation model generates improved dense tropospheric water vapour fields compared with elevation dependent models, with similar accuracies obtained over both flat and mountainous terrain, as well as for both inland and coastal areas. We will also show that our GPS-based model may be enhanced with ECMWF zenith tropospheric delay and MODIS PWV, producing multi-data sources high temporal-spatial resolution PWV fields. These fields were applied to Sentinel-1 SAR interferograms over the Los Angeles region, for which a maximum noise reduction due to atmosphere artifacts reached 85%. The results reveal that the turbulent troposphere noise, especially those in a SAR image, often occupy more than 50% of the total zenith tropospheric delay and exert systematic, rather than random patterns.

Price, Weather, and `Acreage Abandonment' in Western Great Plains Wheat Culture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.

1983-07-01

Multivariate analyses of acreage abandonment patterns in the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat region indicate that the major mode of variation is an in-phase oscillation confined to the western half of the overall area, which is also the area with lowest average yields. This is one of the more agroclimatically marginal environments in the United States, with wide interannual fluctuations in both climate and profitability.We developed a multiple regression model to determine the relative roles of weather and expected price in the decision not to harvest. The overall model explained 77% of the spatial and temporal variation in abandonment. The 36.5% of the non-spatial variation was explained by two simple transformations of climatic data from three monthly aggregates-September-October, November-February and March-April. Price factors, expressed as indexed future delivery quotations,were barely significant, with only between 3 and 5% of the non-spatial variation explained, depending upon the model.The model was based upon weather, climate and price data from 1932 through 1975. It was tested by sequentially withholding three-year blocks of data, and using the respecified regression coefficients, along with observed weather and price, to estimate abandonment in the withheld years. Error analyses indicate no loss of model fidelity in the test mode. Also, prediction errors in the 1970-75 period, characterized by widely fluctuating prices, were not different from those in the rest of the model.The overall results suggest that the perceived quality of the crop, as influenced by weather, is a much more important determinant of the abandonment decision than are expected returns based upon price considerations.

Weathering patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contained in submerged Deepwater Horizon oil spill residues when re-exposed to sunlight.

PubMed

John, Gerald F; Han, Yuling; Clement, T Prabhakar

2016-12-15

The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill event released a large amount of sweet crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). An unknown portion of this oil that arrived along the Alabama shoreline interacted with nearshore sediments and sank forming submerged oil mats (SOMs). A considerable amount of hydrocarbons, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), were trapped within these buried SOMs. Recent studies completed using the oil spill residues collected along the Alabama shoreline have shown that several PAHs, especially higher molecular weight PAHs (four or more aromatic rings), are slowly weathering compared to the weathering levels experienced by the oil when it was floating over the GOM. In this study we have hypothesized that the weathering rates of PAHs in SOMs have slowed down because the buried oil was isolated from direct exposure to sunlight, thus hindering the photodegradation pathway. We further hypothesized that re-exposing SOMs to sunlight can reactivate various weathering reactions. Also, SOMs contain 75-95% sand (by weight) and the entrapped sand could either block direct sunlight or form large oil agglomerates with very little exposed surface area; these processes could possibly interfere with weathering reactions. To test these hypotheses, we completed controlled experiments to study the weathering patterns of PAHs in a field recovered SOM sample after re-exposing it to sunlight. Our experimental results show that the weathering levels of several higher molecular weight PAHs have slowed down primarily due to the absence of sunlight-induced photodegradation reactions. The data also show that sand particles in SOM material could potentially interfere with photodegradation reactions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weathering as the limiting factor of denudation in the Western escarpment of the Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbühl, L. M.; Schlunegger, F.; Kracht, O.; Ramseyer, K.; Rieke-Zapp, D.; Aldahan, A.; von Blanckenburg, F.

2009-04-01

A crucial issue in process geomorphology is the search for the scale and the extent to which precipitation, and climate in general, influences the nature and the rates of sediment transfer (weathering, erosion, sediment transport and deposition). We present an analysis of the possible interplay between precipitation, weathering and denudation rates for the western Andean slope between the Cordillera and the Pacific coast. It is based on morphometric studies and quantitative 10Be denudation rate estimates of three transverse river systems (Piura at 5°S, Pisco at 13°S, and Lluta at 18°S) draining the Western escarpment of the Peruvian and North Chilean Andes. The systems originate at elevations >3000 m above sea level, cover an area between 3000 and 10'000 km2 and discharge into the Pacific Ocean. The precipitation rate pattern implies a hyperarid climate at the coast, and semi-arid to semi-humid conditions in the Cordillera where the streams rise. There, climatic conditions are generally controlled by the easterlies that deliver moisture from the Atlantic Ocean via the low level Andean jet. The precipitation rate pattern of the Cordillera shows a North-South decreasing trend, from ca. 1000 mm/yr in Northern Peru to 150 mm/yr in Northern Chile. In these higher regions of the drainage basins, hillslopes are convex with nearly constant curvatures and are mantled by a >1 m thick regolith cover. In addition, hillslope erosion is limited to the regolith-bedrock interface. We interpret these geomorphic features to indicate weathering-controlled sediment discharge. In the lower river segments, beyond tectonic knickzones, regular precipitation is almost absent. For the case of the Piura river in Northern Peru, precipitation in this segment occurs in relation to highly episodic El Niño events related to the westerlies. This results in a supply-limited sediment discharge, leading to predominance of channelized processes on the hillslopes, a spare regolith cover and an additional river profile knickzone in the transition zone between the easterlies and the westerlies. Analysis of 10Be in quartz of river-born sand and of bedrock reveals that denudation correlates positively with the present-day rainfall pattern related to the easterlies. Denudation rates in the headwaters range from 0.14 mm/year in Northern Peru down to 0.05 mm/yr in Northern Chile (Kober et al., 2007). In addition, 10Be-based denudation rates reveal a decreasing trend from the Cordillera to the Pacific coast that positively correlates with the decreasing precipitation rate, irrespective of the nature of the bedrock. Interestingly, the 10Be analysis conducted in the Piura system reveals no influence of the episodic precipitation in relation to El Niño on the sediment production rates. In summary, the pattern of denudation rates together with morphometric observations and quantitative denudation rate estimates strongly hints at weathering being the driving but also limiting factor of denudation. Accordingly, in the western Peruvian Andes, sediment production and export are most probably controlled by the pattern and rate of precipitation. Kober, F., Ivy-Ochs, S., Schlunegger, F., Baur, H., Kubik, P. W., and Wieler, R. (2007). Denudation rates and a topography-driven rainfall threshold in northern Chile: Multiple cosmogenic nuclide data and sediment yield budgets. Geomorphology 83, 97-120.

Nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) during the maternity season in West Virginia (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, J.B.; Edwards, J.W.; Ford, W.M.

2011-01-01

Nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) at diurnal roost trees remain largely uninvestigated. For example, the influence of reproductive status, weather, and roost tree and surrounding habitat characteristics on timing of emergence, intra-night activity, and entrance at their roost trees is poorly known. We examined nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis maternity colonies during pregnancy and lactation at diurnal roost trees situated in areas that were and were not subjected to recent prescribed fires at the Fernow Experimental Forest, West Virginia from 2007 to 2009. According to exit counts and acoustic data, northern myotis colony sizes were similar between reproductive periods and roost tree settings. However, intra-night activity patterns differed slightly between reproductive periods and roost trees in burned and non-burned areas. Weather variables poorly explained variation in activity patterns during pregnancy, but precipitation and temperature were negatively associated with activity patterns during lactation. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

Seasonal patterns of wind stress and wind stress curl over the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Velasco, Guillermo Gutiérrez; Winant, Clinton D.

1996-08-01

Meteorological observations from an array of stations deployed along the periphery of the Gulf of Mexico, between 1990 and 1993, are used to describe the seasonal fluctuations in patterns of atmospheric variables from a contemporary set of measurements. Seasonal maps of wind stress based on these measurements resemble wind stress maps based on ship observations, as published by Elliott [1979], rather than maps based on analyses of numerical weather forecasts, as published by Rhodes et al. [1989], particularly near the western boundary of the gulf. Seasonal maps of wind stress curl are characterized by positive curls over the western and southwestern gulf. The central result of this study is to document the important role of the mountain chain which extends along the southwestern section of the gulf in channeling the wind toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

How to introduce climate change into extreme precipitation predetermination? First attempts to tamper with the MEWP method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gérardin, Maxime; Brigode, Pierre; Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joël; Garçon, Rémy; Paquet, Emmanuel; Ribstein, Pierre

2013-04-01

The MEWP (Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern, Garavaglia et al. 2010) distribution is part of the operational method in use at EDF (Electricité de France) for computing dam spillways design floods, i.e. the magnitude of the flood that occurs at a given return period. The return periods of interest lie in the 100 - 10,000 years range. Relying on a purposely-designed classification of atmospheric circulations into weather patterns, and assigning a catchment-specific asymptotical coefficient to each of these patterns, the MEWP distribution provides the daily areal rainfall as a function of the return period. In its current state, the method relies on the implicit assumption of climate stationnarity. In this work we seek to introduce climate change into the MEWP framework. Since the MEWP distribution basically contains two sorts of parameters, namely frequencies of the weather patterns, and magnitudes of the events occurring within each of these patterns, we examine the plausible evolution of these two sets of parameters under climate change, and the sensitivity of the final result to these two sorts of changes. On the one hand, the future frequencies are assessed thanks to GCM outputs from CMIP5, and significant, albeit not greater than the internal variability, changes are observed. On the other hand, the future magnitudes can be suspected to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (e.g. Pall et al., 2007, and Lenderink et van Meijgaard, 2008). We assess the validity of this hypothesis on the observed daily areal precipitation series for more than a hundred catchments in France. The sensitivity analysis shows that, for the return periods at stake, the impact of frequency changes is small relative to that of magnitude changes, while this would not be true for smaller return periods. Therefore, we propose to incorporate climate change into the MEWP distribution in a simple but realistic way, by taking account of the magnitude change only. We conclude with some insights into the next steps that will allow a more sophisticated representation of climate change in the MEWP distribution. References: Garavaglia, F., J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara. 2010. "Introducing a Rainfall Compound Distribution Model Based on Weather Patterns Sub-sampling." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14 (6): 951-964. doi:10.5194/hess-14-951-2010. Lenderink, Geert, and Erik van Meijgaard. 2008. "Increase in Hourly Precipitation Extremes Beyond Expectations from Temperature Changes." Nature Geoscience 1 (8) (July 20): 511-514. doi:10.1038/ngeo262. Pall, P., MR Allen, and DA Stone. 2007. "Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron Constraint on Changes in Extreme Precipitation Under CO 2 Warming." Climate Dynamics 28 (4): 351-363.

Integrating NASA Satellite Data Into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment To Improve Agricultural Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, William; Shannon, Harlan; deJeu, Richard; Kempler, Steve

2012-01-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. The goal of the current project is to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA satellite precipitation and soil moisture observations into WAOB's decision making environment. Precipitation (Level 3 gridded) is from the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Soil moisture (Level 2 swath and Level 3 gridded) is generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) and operationally produced by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GBS DISC). A root zone soil moisture (RZSM) product is also generated, via assimilation of the Level 3 LPRM data by a land surface model (part of a related project). Data services to be available for these products include GeoTIFF, GDS (GrADS Data Server), WMS (Web Map Service), WCS (Web Coverage Service), and NASA Giovanni. Project benchmarking is based on retrospective analyses of WAOB analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns and estimated crop yields. An analog index (AI) was developed to introduce a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years. Results thus far show that crop yield estimates derived from TMPA precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation measurements. Work is continuing to include LPRM surface soil moisture data and model-assimilated RZSM.

Classifying Urban Space Types of Seoul using Time-series Heat Island map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, S.; KIM, H.; JE, M.

2017-12-01

In August 2016, the hottest heat occurred in Korea since the weather observation started in Korea. Due to climate changes, this heat phenomenon is expected to be severe more in the future. Thus, this study analyzed the heatwave occurred in 2016 with regard to Seoul from various angles to identify the characteristics of urban regions where the heat island phenomenon occurred. To do this, first, temperature data for two days on August 6 and 12 in 2016 when the hottest heatwave occurred were collected from 287 places of automatic weather stations (AWS) installed in Seoul and adjacent suburbs. The temperature distribution of Seoul was mapped using interpolation in every hour using the collected temperature data. Second, regions in Seoul were classified using statistical methods based on spatial characteristics such as land coverage, density, use type, and traffic volume in Seoul. Third, a daily pattern of change in temperature in the classified regions was depicted with a graph, and regions were re-classified based on the daily pattern of change in temperature. Finally, the characteristics of the classified regions were re-reviewed and then, heat island occurrence, continuation, and reduction measure by region type were discussed. The analysis results showed that a pattern of heatwave occurrence was exhibited differently by the classified region type. The results also showed that not only physical characteristics such as land coverage but also socioeconomic index such as population density and floating population that induced a traffic volume influenced the pattern of heatwave occurrence despite of the same land usage regions. This study not only classified urban climate regions by existing mean temperature and specific time-point temperature but also proposed a methodology that analyzed heat island phenomenon inside cities by using time-series temperature data in a day. Furthermore, this study enabled regional classification based on heat island characteristics to contribute to establishment of measure for each regional classification.

Is countershading camouflage robust to lighting change due to weather?

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Countershading is a pattern of coloration thought to have evolved in order to implement camouflage. By adopting a pattern of coloration that makes the surface facing towards the sun darker and the surface facing away from the sun lighter, the overall amount of light reflected off an animal can be made more uniformly bright. Countershading could hence contribute to visual camouflage by increasing background matching or reducing cues to shape. However, the usefulness of countershading is constrained by a particular pattern delivering ‘optimal’ camouflage only for very specific lighting conditions. In this study, we test the robustness of countershading camouflage to lighting change due to weather, using human participants as a ‘generic’ predator. In a simulated three-dimensional environment, we constructed an array of simple leaf-shaped items and a single ellipsoidal target ‘prey’. We set these items in two light environments: strongly directional ‘sunny’ and more diffuse ‘cloudy’. The target object was given the optimal pattern of countershading for one of these two environment types or displayed a uniform pattern. By measuring detection time and accuracy, we explored whether and how target detection depended on the match between the pattern of coloration on the target object and scene lighting. Detection times were longest when the countershading was appropriate to the illumination; incorrectly camouflaged targets were detected with a similar pattern of speed and accuracy to uniformly coloured targets. We conclude that structural changes in light environment, such as caused by differences in weather, do change the effectiveness of countershading camouflage. PMID:29515822

Relations between basin characteristics and stream water chemistry in alpine/subalpine basins in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.; Sueker, Julie K.

2000-01-01

Relations between stream water chemistry and topographic, vegetative, and geologic characteristics of basins were evaluated for nine alpine/subalpine basins in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, to identify controlling parameters and to better understand processes governing patterns in stream water chemistry. Fractional amounts of steep slopes (≥30°), unvegetated terrain, and young surficial debris within each basin were positively correlated to each other. These terrain features, which commonly occur on steep valley side slopes underlain by talus, were negatively correlated with concentrations of base cations, silica, and alkalinity and were positively correlated with nitrate, acidity, and runoff. These relations might result from the short residence times of water and limited soil development in the talus environment, which limit chemical weathering and nitrogen uptake. Steep, unvegetated terrains also tend to promote high Ca/Na ratios in stream water, probably because physical weathering rates in those areas are high. Physical weathering exposes fresh bedrock that contains interstitial calcite, which weathers relatively quickly. The fractional amounts of subalpine meadow and, to a lesser extent, old surficial debris in the basins were positively correlated to concentrations of weathering products and were negatively correlated to nitrate and acidity. These relations may reflect more opportunities for silicate weathering and nitrogen uptake in the lower‐energy environments of the valley floor, where soils are finer‐grained, older, and better developed and slopes are relatively flat. These results indicate that in alpine/subalpine basins, slope, vegetation (or lack thereof), and distribution and age of surficial materials are interrelated and can have major effects on stream water chemistry.

Enhancing our Understanding of Snowfall Modes with Ground-Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettersen, C.; Kulie, M.; Petersen, W. A.; Bliven, L. F.; Wood, N.

2016-12-01

Snowfall can be broadly categorized into deep and shallow events based on the vertical distribution of the precipitating ice. Remotely sensed data refine these precipitation categories and aid in discerning the underlying macro- and microphysical mechanisms. The unique patterns in the remotely sensed instruments observations can potentially connect distinct modes of snowfall to specific processes. Though satellites can observe and recognize these patterns in snowfall, these measurements are limited - particularly in cases of shallow and light precipitation, as the snow may be too close to the surface or below the detection limits of the instrumentation. By enhancing satellite measurements with ground-based instrumentation, whether with limited-term field campaigns or long-term strategic sites, we can further our understanding and assumptions about different snowfall modes and how they are measured from spaceborne instruments. Presented are three years of data from a ground-based instrument suite consisting of a MicroRain Radar (MRR; optimized for snow events) and a Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP). These instruments are located at the Marquette, Michigan National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office to: a) use coincident meteorological measurements and observations to enhance our understanding of the thermodynamic drivers and b) showcase these instruments in an operational setting to enhance forecasts of shallow snow events. Three winters of MRR and PIP measurements are partitioned, based on meteorological surface observations, into two-dimensional histograms of reflectivity and particle size distribution data. These statistics improve our interpretation of deep versus shallow precipitation. Additionally, these statistical techniques are applied to similar datasets from Global Precipitation Measurement field campaigns for further insight into cloud and precipitation macro- and microphysical processes.

Impact of Temperature Trends on Short-Term Energy Demand, The (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement September 1999)

EIA Publications

1999-01-01

The past few years have witnessed unusually warm weather, as evidenced by both mild winters and hot summers. The analysis shows that the 30-year norms--the basis of weather-related energy demand projections--do not reflect the warming trend or its regional and seasonal patterns.

Forage and weather influence day versus nighttime cow behavior and calf weaning weights on rangeland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We determined the effects of two forage allowance levels (LOW vs. HIGH) and weather conditions on day- and nighttime movement patterns of young rangeland-raised cows. We also investigated whether calf weaning weights (WW, n = 42) were significantly related to their dams' post-calving movement patter...

Adjustment of relative humidity and temperature for differences in elevation.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1961-01-01

The variation of fire-weather elements in mountainous terrain is complex at any one time, and the patterns vary considerably with time. During periods of serious fire weather, this variation becomes important. Much information is obtainable by local interpretation of available forecasts and observations. Optimum use of available information requires some understanding...

Tropospheric Waves, Jet Streams, and United States Weather Patterns. Resource Paper No. 11.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harman, Jay R.

Intended as a supplement to undergraduate college geography courses, this resource paper reviews the mechanism by which surface weather features are linked with the mid-atmospheric circulation within the westerly wind belt. Specifically, vertical atmospheric motions associated with certain aspects of the upper tropospheric flow, including jet…

Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

PubMed

De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

2013-09-01

Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

Thresholds for soil cover and weathering in mountainous landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Jean; Benjaram, Sarah

2017-04-01

The patterns of soil formation, weathering, and erosion shape terrestrial landscapes, forming the foundation on which ecosystems and human civilizations are built. Several fundamental questions remain regarding how soils evolve, especially in mountainous landscapes where tectonics and climate exert complex forcings on erosion and weathering. In these systems, quantifying weathering is made difficult by the fact that soil cover is discontinuous and heterogeneous. Therefore, studies that attempt to measure soil weathering in such systems face a difficult bias in measurements towards more weathered portions of the landscape. Here, we explore current understanding of erosion-weathering feedbacks, and present new data from mountain systems in Western Montana. Using field mapping, analysis of LiDAR and remotely sensed land-cover data, and soil chemical analyses, we measure soil cover and surface weathering intensity across multiple spatial scales, from the individual soil profile to a landscape perspective. Our data suggest that local emergence of bedrock cover at the surface marks a landscape transition from supply to kinetic weathering regimes in these systems, and highlights the importance of characterizing complex critical zone architecture in mountain landscapes. This work provides new insight into how landscape morphology and erosion may drive important thresholds for soil cover and weathering.

Identification of Abnormal System Noise Temperature Patterns in Deep Space Network Antennas Using Neural Network Trained Fuzzy Logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Thomas; Pham, Timothy; Liao, Jason

2011-01-01

This paper presents the development of a fuzzy logic function trained by an artificial neural network to classify the system noise temperature (SNT) of antennas in the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). The SNT data were classified into normal, marginal, and abnormal classes. The irregular SNT pattern was further correlated with link margin and weather data. A reasonably good correlation is detected among high SNT, low link margin and the effect of bad weather; however we also saw some unexpected non-correlations which merit further study in the future.

Stochastic and Statistical Analysis of Utility Revenues and Weather Data Analysis for Consumer Demand Estimation in Smart Grids

PubMed Central

Ali, S. M.; Mehmood, C. A; Khan, B.; Jawad, M.; Farid, U; Jadoon, J. K.; Ali, M.; Tareen, N. K.; Usman, S.; Majid, M.; Anwar, S. M.

2016-01-01

In smart grid paradigm, the consumer demands are random and time-dependent, owning towards stochastic probabilities. The stochastically varying consumer demands have put the policy makers and supplying agencies in a demanding position for optimal generation management. The utility revenue functions are highly dependent on the consumer deterministic stochastic demand models. The sudden drifts in weather parameters effects the living standards of the consumers that in turn influence the power demands. Considering above, we analyzed stochastically and statistically the effect of random consumer demands on the fixed and variable revenues of the electrical utilities. Our work presented the Multi-Variate Gaussian Distribution Function (MVGDF) probabilistic model of the utility revenues with time-dependent consumer random demands. Moreover, the Gaussian probabilities outcome of the utility revenues is based on the varying consumer n demands data-pattern. Furthermore, Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulations are performed that validated the factor of accuracy in the aforesaid probabilistic demand-revenue model. We critically analyzed the effect of weather data parameters on consumer demands using correlation and multi-linear regression schemes. The statistical analysis of consumer demands provided a relationship between dependent (demand) and independent variables (weather data) for utility load management, generation control, and network expansion. PMID:27314229

Stochastic and Statistical Analysis of Utility Revenues and Weather Data Analysis for Consumer Demand Estimation in Smart Grids.

PubMed

Ali, S M; Mehmood, C A; Khan, B; Jawad, M; Farid, U; Jadoon, J K; Ali, M; Tareen, N K; Usman, S; Majid, M; Anwar, S M

2016-01-01

In smart grid paradigm, the consumer demands are random and time-dependent, owning towards stochastic probabilities. The stochastically varying consumer demands have put the policy makers and supplying agencies in a demanding position for optimal generation management. The utility revenue functions are highly dependent on the consumer deterministic stochastic demand models. The sudden drifts in weather parameters effects the living standards of the consumers that in turn influence the power demands. Considering above, we analyzed stochastically and statistically the effect of random consumer demands on the fixed and variable revenues of the electrical utilities. Our work presented the Multi-Variate Gaussian Distribution Function (MVGDF) probabilistic model of the utility revenues with time-dependent consumer random demands. Moreover, the Gaussian probabilities outcome of the utility revenues is based on the varying consumer n demands data-pattern. Furthermore, Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulations are performed that validated the factor of accuracy in the aforesaid probabilistic demand-revenue model. We critically analyzed the effect of weather data parameters on consumer demands using correlation and multi-linear regression schemes. The statistical analysis of consumer demands provided a relationship between dependent (demand) and independent variables (weather data) for utility load management, generation control, and network expansion.

Effects of Climate on Co-evolution of Weathering Profiles and Hillscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, R. S.; Rajaram, H.; Anderson, S. P.

2017-12-01

Considerable debate revolves around the relative importance of rock type, tectonics, and climate in creating the architecture of the critical zone. It has recently been proposed that differences in the depths and patterns of weathering between landscapes in Colorado's Front Range and South Carolina's piedmont can be attributed to the state of stress in the rock imposed by the magnitude and orientation the regional stresses with respect to the ridgelines (St. Claire et al., 2016). We argue for the importance of the climate, and in particular, in temperate regions, the amount of recharge. We employ numerical models of hillslope evolution between bounding erosional channels, in which the degree of rock weathering governs the rate of transformation of rock to soil. As the water table drapes between the stream channels, fresh rock is brought into the weathering zone at a rate governed by the rate of incision of the channels. We track the chemical weathering of rock, represented by alteration of feldspar to clays, which in turn requires calculation of the concentration of reactive species in the water along hydrologic flow paths. We present results from analytic solutions to the flow field in which travel times can be efficiently assessed. Below the water table, flow paths are hyperbolic, taking on considerable lateral components as they veer toward the bounding channels that serve as drains to the hillslope. We find that if water is far from equilibrium with respect to weatherable minerals at the water table, as occurs in wet, slowly-eroding landscapes, deep weathering can occur well below the water table to levels approximating the base of the bounding channels. In dry climates, on the other hand, the weathering zone is limited to a shallow surface - parallel layer. These models capture the essence of the observed differences in depth to fresh rock in both wet and dry climates without appeal to the state of stress in the rock.

Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, J.B.

2011-01-01

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 ?? 8 km2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Exposure age and climate controls on weathering in deglaciated watersheds of western Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scribner, C. A.; Martin, E. E.; Martin, J. B.; Deuerling, K. M.; Collazo, D. F.; Marshall, A. T.

2015-12-01

Fine-grained sediments deposited by retreating glaciers weather faster than the global average and this weathering can impact the global carbon cycle and oceanic fluxes of nutrients and radiogenic isotopes. Much work has focused on subglacial and proglacial weathering of continental ice sheets, but little is known about weathering and resulting fluxes from deglacial watersheds, which are disconnected from the ice sheets and discharge only annual precipitation and permafrost melt. We investigate the effects of exposure age and precipitation on weathering intensity in four deglacial watersheds on Greenland that form a transect from the coast near Sisimiut toward the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) near Kangerlussuaq based on evaluations of major ion compositions, Sr isotope ratios, and mineral saturation states of waters and sediments. The transect is underlain by Archean orthogneiss and is characterized by gradients in moraine ages (∼7.5-8.0 ky inland to ∼10 ky at the coast) and water balance (-150 mm/yr inland to +150 mm/yr at the coast). Anion compositions are generally dominated by HCO3, but SO4 becomes increasingly important toward the coast, reflecting a switch from trace carbonate dissolution to sulfide mineral oxidation. Coastal watersheds have a higher proportion of dissolved silica, higher Na/Cl, Si/Ca, and lower Ca/Sr ratios than inland watersheds, indicating an increase in the relative proportion of silicate weathering and an increase in the extent of weathering toward the coast. More extensive weathering near the coast is also apparent in differences in the 87Sr/86Sr ratios of stream water and bedload (Δ87Sr/86Sr), which decreases from 0.017 inland to 0.005 at the coast, and in increased saturation states relative to amorphous SiO2 and quartz. The steep weathering gradient from inland to coastal watersheds reflects enhanced weathering compared to that expected from the 2 to 3 ky difference in exposure age caused by elevated coastal precipitation. The gradient of weathering with exposure age, water budget and distance from the ice sheet indicates that oceanic and atmospheric fluxes will change as continental glaciers retreat, precipitation patterns across the deglacial region readjust, and the relative proportion of deglacial to proglacial runoff increases.

Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kronfeld, Kevin M. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

An airborne weather radar system, the Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR), with enhanced on-board weather radar data processing was developed and tested. The system features additional weather data that is uplinked from ground-based sources, specialized data processing, and limited automatic radar control to search for hazardous weather. National Weather Service (NWS) ground-based Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) information is used by the EWxR system to augment the on-board weather radar information. The system will simultaneously display NEXRAD and on-board weather radar information in a split-view format. The on-board weather radar includes an automated or hands-free storm-finding feature that optimizes the radar returns by automatically adjusting the tilt and range settings for the current altitude above the terrain and searches for storm cells near the atmospheric 0-degree isotherm. A rule-based decision aid was developed to automatically characterize cells as hazardous, possibly-hazardous, or non-hazardous based upon attributes of that cell. Cell attributes are determined based on data from the on-board radar and from ground-based radars. A flight path impact prediction algorithm was developed to help pilots to avoid hazardous weather along their flight plan and their mission. During development the system was tested on the NASA B757 aircraft and final tests were conducted on the Rockwell Collins Sabreliner.

Effect of weather on temporal pain patterns in patients with temporomandibular disorders and migraine.

PubMed

Cioffi, I; Farella, M; Chiodini, P; Ammendola, L; Capuozzo, R; Klain, C; Vollaro, S; Michelotti, A

2017-05-01

Patients with masticatory muscle pain and migraine typically report that the intensity of pain fluctuates over time and is affected by weather changes. Weather variables, such as ambient temperature and humidity, may vary significantly depending on whether the individual is outdoor or indoor. It is, therefore, important to assess these variables at the individual level using portable monitors, during everyday life. This study aimed to determine and compare the temporal patterns of pain in individuals affected with facial and head pain and to investigate its relation with weather changes. Eleven patients (27·3 ± 7·4 years) with chronic masticatory muscle pain (MP) and twenty (33·1 ± 8·7 years) with migraine headache (MH) were asked to report their current pain level on a visual analogue scale (VAS) every hour over fourteen consecutive days. The VAS scores were collected using portable data-loggers, which were also used to record temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. VAS scores varied markedly over time in both groups. Pain VAS scores fluctuate less in the MP group than in the MH group, but their mean, minimum and maximum values were higher than those of migraine patients (all P < 0·05). Pain scores <2 cm were more common in the MH than in the MP group (P < 0·001). Perceived intensity of pain was negatively associated with atmospheric pressure in the MP group and positively associated with temperature and atmospheric in the MH group. Our results reveal that patients with masticatory muscle pain and patients with migraine present typical temporal pain patterns that are influenced in a different way by weather changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Historic halo displays as weather indicator: Criteria and examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.; Neuhäuser, Ralph

2016-04-01

There are numerous celestial signs reported in historic records, many of them refer to atmospheric ("sub-lunar") phenomena, such as ice halos and aurorae. In an interdisciplinary collaboration between astrophysics and cultural astronomy, we noticed that celestial observations including meteorological phenomena are often misinterpreted, mostly due to missing genuine criteria: especially ice crystal halos were recorded frequently in past centuries for religious reasons, but are mistaken nowadays often for other phenomena like aurorae. Ice halo displays yield clear information on humidity and temperature in certain atmospheric layers, and thereby indicate certain weather patterns. Ancient so-called rain makers used halo observations for weather forecast; e.g., a connection between certain halo displays and rain a few day later is statistically significant. Ice halos exist around sun and moon and are reported for both (they can stay for several days): many near, middle, and far eastern records from day- and night-time include such observations with high frequency. (Partly based on publications on halos by D.L. Neuhäuser & R. Neuhäuser, available at http://www.astro.uni-jena.de/index.php/terra-astronomy.html)

Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different Atmospheric Circulation WTs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, P. M.; Trigo, R.; Pereira, M. G.; Rasilla, D.; Gouveia, C.

2012-04-01

This work focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of burnt area (BA) for the entire Iberian Peninsula (IP) and on the construction of statistical models to reproduce the inter-annual variability, based on Weather Types Classification (WTC). A common BA dataset was assembled for the first time for the entire Iberian Peninsula, by merging BA records for the 66 administrative regions of Portugal and Spain. A normalization procedure was then applied to the various size regions before performing a k-means cluster analysis to identify large areas characterized by similar fire regimes. The most compelling results were obtained for 4 clusters (Northwestern, Northern, Southwestern and Eastern) whose spatial patterns and seasonal fire regimes are shown to be related with constraining factors such as topography, vegetation cover and climate conditions. The response of fire burnt surface at monthly time scales to both long-term climatic pre-conditions and short-term synoptic forcing was assessed through correlation and regression analysis using: (i) temperature and precipitation from 2 to 7 months in advance to fire peak season; (ii) synoptic weather patterns derived from 11 distinct classifications derived under the COSTaction-733. Different responses were obtained for each of the considered regions: (i) a relevant link between BA and short-term synoptic forcing (represented by monthly frequencies of WTC) was identified for all clusters; (ii) long-term climatic preconditioning was relevant for all but one cluster (Northern). Taking into account these links, we developed stepwise regression models with the aim of reproducing the observed BA series (i.e. in hindcast mode). These models were based on the best climatic and synoptic circulation predictors identified previously. All models were cross-validated and their performance varies between clusters, though models exclusively based on WTCs tend to better reproduce annual BA time series than those only based on pre-conditioning climatic information. Nevertheless, the best results are attained when both synoptic and climatic predictors are used simultaneously as predictors, in particular for the two western clusters, where correlation coefficient values are higher than 0.7. Finally, we have used WTC composite maps to characterize the typical synoptic configurations that favor high values of BA. These patterns correspond to dry and warm fluxes, associated with anticyclonic regimes, which foster fire ignition (Pereira et al., 2005). Pereira, M.G., Trigo, R.M., DaCamara, C.C., Pereira, J.M.C., Leite, S.M., 2005: "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 129, 11-25. COST733, 2011: "COST 733 Wiki - Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions or COST733 spatial domains for Europe". Available at http://geo21.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki/Cost733_Wiki_Main [accessed 1 September 2011].

Controls on carbon storage and weathering in volcanic ash soils across a climate gradient on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramer, M. G.; Chadwick, O.

2017-12-01

Volcanic ash soils retain the largest and most persistent soil carbon pools of any ecosystem. However, the mechanisms governing soil carbon accumulation and weathering during initial phases of weathering are not well understood. We examined soil organic matter dynamics and weathering across a high altitude (3563 - 3013 m) 20 ky climate gradient on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Four elevation sites were selected ( 250-500 mm rainfall) which range from arid-periglacial to sites which contain a mix of shrubs and grasses. At each site, between 2-3 pits were dug and major diagnostic horizons down to bedrock (in-tact lava) were sampled. Soils were analyzed for particle size, organic C and N, soil pH, exchangeable cations, base saturation, NaF pH, phosphorous sorption and bulk elements. Mass loss and pedogenic metal accumulation (hydroxlamine Fe, Al and Si extractions) were used to measure extent of weathering, leaching, changes in soil mineralogy and carbon accumulation with the short-range-ordered (SRO) minerals. Reactive-phase (SRO) minerals show a general trend of increasing abundance through the soil depth profile with increasing rainfall. However carbon accumulation patterns across the climate gradient are largely decoupled from these trends. The results suggest that after 20ky, pedogenic processes have altered the nature and composition of the volcanic ash such that it is capable of retaining soil C even where organic acid influences from plant material and leaching from rainfall is severely limited. Comparisons with lower elevation soils on Mauna Kea and other moist mesic (2500mm rainfall) sites on Hawaii suggest that these soils have reached only between 1-15 % of their capacity to retain carbon. Our results suggest that in low rainfall and a cold climate, after 20ky, weathering has advanced but is decoupled from soil carbon accumulation patterns and the associated influence of vegetation on soil development. Changes in soil carbon composition and amount across the entire (250-2500mm rainfall) Mauna Kea climate gradient indicate that the rate of carbon supply to the subsoil (driven by coupling of rainfall above ground plant production) is a governing factor of forms and amount of soil organic matter accumulation, while soil mineralogy remained relatively uniform.

Real-Time Analysis of a Sensor's Data for Automated Decision Making in an IoT-Based Smart Home.

PubMed

Khan, Nida Saddaf; Ghani, Sayeed; Haider, Sajjad

2018-05-25

IoT devices frequently generate large volumes of streaming data and in order to take advantage of this data, their temporal patterns must be learned and identified. Streaming data analysis has become popular after being successfully used in many applications including forecasting electricity load, stock market prices, weather conditions, etc. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been successfully utilized in understanding the embedded interesting patterns/behaviors in the data and forecasting the future values based on it. One such pattern is modelled and learned in the present study to identify the occurrence of a specific pattern in a Water Management System (WMS). This prediction aids in making an automatic decision support system, to switch OFF a hydraulic suction pump at the appropriate time. Three types of ANN, namely Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO), Multi-Input Single-Output (MISO), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) have been compared, for multi-step-ahead forecasting, on a sensor's streaming data. Experiments have shown that RNN has the best performance among three models and based on its prediction, a system can be implemented to make the best decision with 86% accuracy.

The research frontier and beyond: granitic terrains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twidale, C. R.

1993-07-01

Investigations of granite forms and landscapes over the past two centuries suggest that many features, major and minor, are shaped by fracture-controlled subsurface weathering, and particularly moisture-driven alteration: in other words etch forms are especially well represented in granitic terrains. Commonly referred to as two stage forms, many are in reality multistage in origin, for the structural contrasts exploited by weathering and erosion that are essential to the mechanism originated as magmatic, thermal or tectonic events in the distant geological past. Fracture patterns are critical to landform and landscape development in granitic terrains, but other structural factors also come into play. Location with respect to water table and moisture contact are also important. Once exposed and comparatively dry, granite forms tend to stability; they are developed and diversified, and many are gradually destroyed as new, epigene, forms evolve, but many granite forms persist over long ages. Reinforcement effects frequently play a part in landform development. Several granite forms are convergent, i.e. features of similar morphology evolve under the influence of different processes, frequently in contrasted environments. On the other hand many landforms considered to be typical of granitic terrains are also developed in bedrock that is petrologically different but physically similar to granite; and in particular is subdivided by fractures of similar pattern and density. To date, most of the general statements concerning the evolution of granitic terrains have been based in work in the tropics but other climatic settings, and notably those of cold land, are now yielding significant results. Future research will extend and develop these avenues, but biotic factors, and particularly the role of bacteria, in such areas as weathering, will take on a new importance. Structural variations inherited from the magnetic, thermal and tectonic events to which granite bodies have been subjected will be more and more appreciated as offering explanations for a wide range of granite forms, major and minor, ancient and recent. In particular, investigations of rock strain, including gravitational loading, at a variety of scales, and especially as it influences fracture patterns and susceptibility to weathering, will assume a prime importance in the explanation of granitic landforms and landscapes. Finally, there as genuine hopes that the close dating of surfaces and weathering events will allow structural and process studies to be placed in their chronilogical contexts. New techniques and observations will prove important to advances in the understanding of granitic forms, but, as in other areas of geomorphological endeavour, fresh perceptions, different linkages and new ideas are critical.

Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

2009-12-01

Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial conditions with horizontal grid resolutions in the one to two km range. In addition, the vertical grid structure was defined to ensure at least ten levels within the boundary layer and two from the bottom to the top of the turbine. This approach enables us to estimate the variability of winds at the farms and how it is distributed over the region. Further, we analyze the potential differences in structural risks at these farms during the 2009 winter season, and whether such differences in wind and weather patterns should be considered in choice of turbine design, installation and operations. We believe that this methodology can be extended to provide an estimate for mean annual energy production at a wind farm with the potential to improve the quality of siting and layout.

Using Mesoscale Weather Model Output as Boundary Conditions for Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulations and Wind-Plant Aerodynamic Simulations (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Churchfield, M. J.; Michalakes, J.; Vanderwende, B.

Wind plant aerodynamics are directly affected by the microscale weather, which is directly influenced by the mesoscale weather. Microscale weather refers to processes that occur within the atmospheric boundary layer with the largest scales being a few hundred meters to a few kilometers depending on the atmospheric stability of the boundary layer. Mesoscale weather refers to large weather patterns, such as weather fronts, with the largest scales being hundreds of kilometers wide. Sometimes microscale simulations that capture mesoscale-driven variations (changes in wind speed and direction over time or across the spatial extent of a wind plant) are important in windmore » plant analysis. In this paper, we present our preliminary work in coupling a mesoscale weather model with a microscale atmospheric large-eddy simulation model. The coupling is one-way beginning with the weather model and ending with a computational fluid dynamics solver using the weather model in coarse large-eddy simulation mode as an intermediary. We simulate one hour of daytime moderately convective microscale development driven by the mesoscale data, which are applied as initial and boundary conditions to the microscale domain, at a site in Iowa. We analyze the time and distance necessary for the smallest resolvable microscales to develop.« less

Hydrological Responses of Weather Conditions and Crop Change of Agricultural Area in the Rincon Valley, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, S.; Sheng, Z.; Abudu, S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic cycle of agricultural area has been changing due to the impacts of climate and land use changes (crop coverage changes) in an arid region of Rincon Valley, New Mexico. This study is to evaluate the impacts of weather condition and crop coverage change on hydrologic behavior of agricultural area in Rincon Valley (2,466km2) for agricultural watershed management using a watershed-scale hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The SWAT model was developed to incorporate irrigation of different crops using auto irrigation function. For the weather condition and crop coverage change evaluation, three spatial crop coverages including a normal (2008), wet (2009), and dry (2011) years were prepared using USDA crop data layer (CDL) for fourteen different crops. The SWAT model was calibrated for the period of 2001-2003 and validated for the period of 2004-2006 using daily-observed streamflow data. Scenario analysis was performed for wet and dry years based on the unique combinations of crop coverages and releases from Caballo Reservoir. The SWAT model simulated the present vertical water budget and horizontal water transfer considering irrigation practices in the Rincon Valley. Simulation results indicated the temporal and spatial variability for irrigation and non-irrigation seasons of hydrologic cycle in agricultural area in terms of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, percolation, baseflow, soil moisture, and groundwater recharge. The water supply of the dry year could not fully cover whole irrigation period due to dry weather conditions, resulting in reduction of crop acreage. For extreme weather conditions, the temporal variation of water budget became robust, which requires careful irrigation management of the agricultural area. The results could provide guidelines for farmers to decide crop patterns in response to different weather conditions and water availability.

The relation of age to low birth weight rates among foreign-born black mothers: a population-based exploratory study.

PubMed

Deal, Stephanie B; Bennett, Amanda C; Rankin, Kristin M; Collins, James W

2014-01-01

In stark contrast to the J or U- shaped relationship between age and low birth weight rates (< 2500g) seen among non-Latino White and Mexican American mothers, low birth weight rates among US-born Blacks are lowest in their teens and rise with increasing age (ie, weathering). The age-related pattern of low birth weight rates among foreign-born Black mothers is unknown. To determine the relationship between age and low birth weight rates among foreign-born Black mothers. Stratified analyses were performed on the 2003-2004 National Center for Health Statistics vital record datasets of foreign-born Black mothers. Maternal age was categorized into six subgroups. Potential confounding variables examined included marital status, parity, and prenatal care usage. Foreign-born Black mothers (N = 143,235) demonstrated a J/U-shaped age-related pattern of low birth weight rates with the lowest rates observed among those in their twenties and early thirties. The subgroups of 15-19 and 35-39 year old mothers had low birth weight rates of 12.0% and 11.4% compared to 9.1% for 25-29 year old mothers; RR = 1.31 (1.22-1.42) and 1.25 (1.20-1.31), respectively. The J/U-shaped age-related pattern persisted independent of marital status, parity and prenatal care usage. Foreign-born black mothers do not exhibit a weathering pattern of rising low birth weight rates with advancing age regardless of traditional individual-level risk factors. Further research into the age-related pattern of birth outcome among impoverished foreign-born Black mothers is warranted.

Determining mineral weathering rates based on solid and solute weathering gradients and velocities: Application to biotite weathering in saprolites

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, A.F.

2002-01-01

Chemical weathering gradients are defined by the changes in the measured elemental concentrations in solids and pore waters with depth in soils and regoliths. An increase in the mineral weathering rate increases the change in these concentrations with depth while increases in the weathering velocity decrease the change. The solid-state weathering velocity is the rate at which the weathering front propagates through the regolith and the solute weathering velocity is equivalent to the rate of pore water infiltration. These relationships provide a unifying approach to calculating both solid and solute weathering rates from the respective ratios of the weathering velocities and gradients. Contemporary weathering rates based on solute residence times can be directly compared to long-term past weathering based on changes in regolith composition. Both rates incorporate identical parameters describing mineral abundance, stoichiometry, and surface area. Weathering gradients were used to calculate biotite weathering rates in saprolitic regoliths in the Piedmont of Northern Georgia, USA and in Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Solid-state weathering gradients for Mg and K at Panola produced reaction rates of 3 to 6 x 10-17 mol m-2 s-1 for biotite. Faster weathering rates of 1.8 to 3.6 ?? 10-16 mol m-2 s-1 are calculated based on Mg and K pore water gradients in the Rio Icacos regolith. The relative rates are in agreement with a warmer and wetter tropical climate in Puerto Rico. Both natural rates are three to six orders of magnitude slower than reported experimental rates of biotite weathering. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

New quantitative, in-situ characterization of weathering in geomaterials.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scrivano, Simona; Gaggero, Laura; Gisbert Aguilar, Josep; Yus Gonzalez, Adrian

2016-04-01

The mineralogical and microtextural analyses of weathered rocks and mortars are the main diagnostic tools to address the materials exposed under different environmental conditions in order to enucleate and mitigate the decay factors. The characterization of weathering intensity is mostly descriptive and non-quantitative (ICOMOS Glossary, 2008); the Fitzner indexes in arenites (Fitzner et al., 2002) and more recently applied to marbles (Scrivano et al., 2013) provide an operator dependent method. The current diagnostic of decay (Drdàcky & Slìzkovà, 2014) based on a scotch tape tearing off the surface was improved by a specifically adapted pocket penetrometer, and a joint gravimetric + minero-chemical analysis under SEM of ablational decay products. The steps are the following: i) Preparation of stubs for SEM with adherent conductive carbon tape (surface area 1.3 cm2) ii) Weighing of stub + tape + its plastic envelope at 0.001 g precision iii) Connecting the stub to a pocket penetrometer iv) Non invasive sampling of the incoherent dust applying a constant pressure of 2 kgf for 1 minute, and then packing away the stub without loosing grains v) Weighing of stub + tape + weathering products + their plastic envelope at 0.001 g precision vi) Recast the weight of removed material vii) Addressing the weathering products to SEM - EDS. Our quantitative peeling test was applied on a 96m long cladded wall in the Staglieno Monumental Cemetery in Genoa. The wall shows weathering gradients due to a neighbouring interred stream and to different insulation. Slabs of ophicalcite marble were tested from three different areas (5 samples were collected to the E, 5 samples at the centre, 5 samples to the W). The results highlighted capillary rise up to 2 meters height and a more weathered central area. On the whole, our protocol allows a delicate, virtually not impacting and reproducible factual sampling. Moreover, if carried out on a statistically significant population, the decay intensity results are defined and categorized. Drdàcky M. & Slìzkovà Z., 2014. In situ peeling tests for assessing the cohesion and consolidation characteristics of historic plasters and render surfaces. Studies in conservation, vol 0. Fitzner B. & Heinrichs K., 2002. Damage diagnosis on stone monuments weathering forms, damage categories and damage indices. - In: Prikryl R. and Viles H.A. (eds.): Understanding and managing stone decay. - Proceedings Internat. Conf. "Stone weathering and atmospheric pollution network (SWAPNET)": 11-56, Charles Univ. Prague (Karolinum Press). ICOMOS.ISCS, 2008 Illustrated glossary on stone deterioration patterns, 78 pp. Scrivano S., Gaggero L. & Taddei A., 2013. Alteration patterns of marble under different environmental exposures: a systematic approach from the Staglieno Monumental cemetery and museum collections in Genoa (Italy). In: Proceedings of the 12th International Congress on Deterioration and Conservation of Stone, New York, 22-26 October 2012. In press.

Climate Change in Nicaragua: a dynamical downscaling of precipitation and temperature.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porras, Ignasi; Domingo-Dalmau, Anna; Sole, Josep Maria; Arasa, Raul; Picanyol, Miquel; Ángeles Gonzalez-Serrano, M.°; Masdeu, Marta

2016-04-01

Climate Change affects weather patterns and modifies meteorological extreme events like tropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls, dry events, extreme temperatures, etc. The aim of this study is to show the Climate Change projections over Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040 focused on precipitation and temperature. In order to obtain the climate change signal, the results obtained by modelling a past period (1980-2009) were compared with the ones obtained by modelling a future period (2010-2040). The modelling method was based on a dynamical downscaling, coupling global and regional models. The MPI-ESM-MR global climate model was selected due to the better performance over Nicaragua. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity analysis for different parameterizations and schemes of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model was made to minimize the model uncertainty. To evaluate and validate the methodology, a comparison between model outputs and satellite measurements data was realized. The results show an expected increment of the temperature and an increment of the number of days per year with temperatures higher than 35°C. Monthly precipitation patterns will change although annual total precipitation will be similar. In addition, number of dry days are expected to increase.

Designing a better weather display

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ware, Colin; Plumlee, Matthew

2012-01-01

The variables most commonly displayed on weather maps are atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, and surface temperature. But they are usually shown separately, not together on a single map. As a design exercise, we set the goal of finding out if it is possible to show all three variables (two 2D scalar fields and a 2D vector field) simultaneously such that values can be accurately read using keys for all variables, a reasonable level of detail is shown, and important meteorological features stand out clearly. Our solution involves employing three perceptual "channels", a color channel, a texture channel, and a motion channel in order to perceptually separate the variables and make them independently readable. We conducted an experiment to evaluate our new design both against a conventional solution, and against a glyph-based solution. The evaluation tested the abilities of novice subjects both to read values using a key, and to see meteorological patterns in the data. Our new scheme was superior especially in the representation of wind patterns using the motion channel, and it also performed well enough in the representation of pressure using the texture channel to suggest it as a viable design alternative.

Investigation of the effect of weather conditions on solar radiation in Brunei Darussalam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yazdani, M. G.; Salam, M. A.; Rahman, Q. M.

2016-11-01

The amount of solar radiation received on the earth's surface is known to be highly influenced by the weather conditions and the geography of a particular area. This paper presents some results of an investigation that was carried out to find the effects of weather patterns on the solar radiation in Brunei Darussalam, a small country that experiences equatorial climate due to its geographical location. Weather data were collected at a suitable location in the University Brunei Darussalam (UBD) and were compared with the available data provided by the Brunei Darussalam Meteorological Services (BDMS). It has been found that the solar radiation is directly proportional to the atmospheric temperature while it is inversely proportional to the relative humidity. It has also been found that wind speed has little influence on solar radiation. Functional relationships between the solar radiation and the atmospheric temperature, and between the solar radiation and the relative humidity have also been developed from the BDMS weather data. Finally, an artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed for training and testing the solar radiation data with the inputs of temperature and relative humidity, and a coefficient of determination of around 99% was achieved. This set of data containing all the aforementioned results may serve as a guideline on the solar radiation pattern in the geographical areas around the equator.

Influence of synoptic weather patterns on solar irradiance variability in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parding, Kajsa; Hinkelman, Laura; Liepert, Beate; Ackerman, Thomas; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Asle Olseth, Jan

2014-05-01

Solar radiation is important for many aspects of existence on Earth, including the biosphere, the hydrological cycle, and creatures living on the planet. Previous studies have reported decadal trends in observational records of surface shortwave (SW) irradiance around the world, too strong to be caused by varying solar output. These observed decadal trends have been dubbed "solar dimming and brightening" and are believed to be related to changes in atmospheric aerosols and cloud cover. Because the observed solar variability coincides with qualitative air pollution histories, the dimming and brightening have become almost synonymous with shortwave attenuation by anthropogenic aerosols. However, there are indications that atmospheric circulation patterns have influenced the dimming and brightening in some regions, e.g., Alaska and Scandinavia. In this work, we focus on the role of atmospheric circulation patterns in modifying shortwave irradiance. An examination of European SW irradiance data from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) shows that while there are periods of predominantly decreasing (~1970-1985) and increasing (~1985-2007) SW irradiance, the changes are not spatially uniform within Europe and in a majority of locations not statistically significant. To establish a connection between weather patterns and sunshine, regression models of SW irradiance are fitted using a daily classification of European weather called Grosswetterlagen (GWL). The GWL reconstructions of shortwave irradiance represent the part of the solar variability that is related to large scale weather patterns, which should be effectively separated from the influence of varying anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The correlation (R) between observed and reconstruced SW irradiance is between 0.31 and 0.75, depending on station and season, all statistically significant (p<0.05, estimated with a bootstrap test). In central and eastern parts of Europe, the observed decadal SW variability is poorly represented by the GWL models, but in northern Europe, the GWL model recreates observed decadal solar variability well. This finding suggests that natural and/or anthropogenic variations in circulation patterns have influenced solar dimming and brightening to a higher degree in the north than in the rest of Europe.

Comparison of animated jet stream visualizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Hoffmann, Peter

2016-04-01

The visualization of 3D atmospheric phenomena in space and time is still a challenging problem. In particular, multiple solutions of animated jet stream visualizations have been produced in recent years, which were designed to visually analyze and communicate the jet and related impacts on weather circulation patterns and extreme weather events. This PICO integrates popular and new jet animation solutions and inter-compares them. The applied techniques (e.g. stream lines or line integral convolution) and parametrizations (color mapping, line lengths) are discussed with respect to visualization quality criteria and their suitability for certain visualization tasks (e.g. jet patterns and jet anomaly analysis, communicating its relevance for climate change).

CO2 Jets and Wind Patterns on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatcher, Chase; Aye, K.-Michael; Portyankina, Ganna

2017-10-01

In Martian winters, the poles get covered by a layer of transparent CO2 ice. In spring, sunlight causes substrate under the ice to heat up which sublimates CO2 under the ice. The accumulating gas eventually causes the ice above it to rupture and the CO2 and substrate mixture spews out like a geyser and settles back down on the surface. The shape, size, and alignment of the deposits on the surface as viewed by the HiRISE camera are related to physical processes like sublimation, weather, and wind on Mars. The jet deposits are identified by citizen scientists on a website called Planet Four. Users are shown sections of HiRISE images and asked to mark different surface features with different tools. The markings are averaged, filtered, and sorted to ensure that the data accurately represents the images. By analyzing trends in the change of different characteristics of these surface features over time, we conclude that different regions on Mars have different sublimation processes and different wind patterns. We also conclude that wind and weather patterns generally repeat from year to year, and that sediment deposits affect local weather as well.

Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

2012-02-01

The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei

2018-03-01

Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume

PubMed Central

Livingston, Kristin S.; Miller, Patricia E.; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H.; Mahan, Susan T.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? Methods: With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. Results: High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Conclusion: Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year. PMID:27990193

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume.

PubMed

Livingston, Kristin S; Miller, Patricia E; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H; Mahan, Susan T

2016-01-01

Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year.

Accumulation of atmospheric sulfur in some Costa Rican soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bern, Carleton R.; Townsend, Alan R.

2013-01-01

Sulfur is one of the macronutrient elements whose sources to terrestrial ecosystems should shift from dominance by rock-weathering to atmospheric deposition as soils and underlying substrate undergo progressive weathering and leaching. However, the nature and timing of this transition is not well known. We investigated sources of sulfur to tropical rain forests growing on basalt-derived soils in the Osa Peninsula region of Costa Rica. Sulfur sources were examined using stable isotope ratios (δ34S) and compared to chemical indices of soil development. The most weathered soils, and the forests they supported, are dominated by atmospheric sulfur, while a less weathered soil type contains both rock-derived and atmospheric sulfur. Patterns of increasing δ34S with increasing soil sulfur concentration across the landscape suggest atmospheric sulfur is accumulating, and little rock-derived sulfur has been retained. Soil sulfur, minus adsorbed sulfate, is correlated with carbon and nitrogen, implying that sulfur accumulation occurs as plants and microbes incorporate sulfur into organic matter. Only the lower depth increments of the more weathered soils contained significant adsorbed sulfate. The evidence suggests a pattern of soil development in which sulfur-bearing minerals in rock, such as sulfides, weather early relative to other minerals, and the released sulfate is leached away. Sulfur added via atmospheric deposition is retained as organic matter accumulates in the soil profile. Adsorbed sulfate accumulates later, driven by changes in soil chemistry and mineralogy. These aspects of sulfur behavior during pedogenesis in this environment may hasten the transition to dominance by atmospheric sources.

Quantifying the spatio-temporal pattern of the ground impact of space weather events using dynamical networks formed from the SuperMAG database of ground based magnetometer stations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dods, Joe; Chapman, Sandra; Gjerloev, Jesper

2016-04-01

Quantitative understanding of the full spatial-temporal pattern of space weather is important in order to estimate the ground impact. Geomagnetic indices such as AE track the peak of a geomagnetic storm or substorm, but cannot capture the full spatial-temporal pattern. Observations by the ~100 ground based magnetometers in the northern hemisphere have the potential to capture the detailed evolution of a given space weather event. We present the first analysis of the full available set of ground based magnetometer observations of substorms using dynamical networks. SuperMAG offers a database containing ground station magnetometer data at a cadence of 1min from 100s stations situated across the globe. We use this data to form dynamic networks which capture spatial dynamics on timescales from the fast reconfiguration seen in the aurora, to that of the substorm cycle. Windowed linear cross-correlation between pairs of magnetometer time series along with a threshold is used to determine which stations are correlated and hence connected in the network. Variations in ground conductivity and differences in the response functions of magnetometers at individual stations are overcome by normalizing to long term averages of the cross-correlation. These results are tested against surrogate data in which phases have been randomised. The network is then a collection of connected points (ground stations); the structure of the network and its variation as a function of time quantify the detailed dynamical processes of the substorm. The network properties can be captured quantitatively in time dependent dimensionless network parameters and we will discuss their behaviour for examples of 'typical' substorms and storms. The network parameters provide a detailed benchmark to compare data with models of substorm dynamics, and can provide new insights on the similarities and differences between substorms and how they correlate with external driving and the internal state of the magnetosphere. We can also investigate the solar wind control of the magnetospheric-ionospheric convection system using dynamical networks. The dynamical networks are first interpolated onto a regular grid. Statistically averaged network responses are then formed for a variety of solar wind conditions, including investigating the network response to southward turnings. [1] Dods, J., S. C. Chapman, and J. W. Gjerloev (2015), Network analysis of geomagnetic substorms using the SuperMAG database of ground-based magnetometer stations, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 120, 7774-7784, doi:10.1002/2015JA021456

ClimateNet: A Machine Learning dataset for Climate Science Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Biard, J.; Ganguly, S.; Ames, S.; Kashinath, K.; Kim, S. K.; Kahou, S.; Maharaj, T.; Beckham, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Williams, D. N.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Deep Learning techniques have revolutionized commercial applications in Computer vision, speech recognition and control systems. The key for all of these developments was the creation of a curated, labeled dataset ImageNet, for enabling multiple research groups around the world to develop methods, benchmark performance and compete with each other. The success of Deep Learning can be largely attributed to the broad availability of this dataset. Our empirical investigations have revealed that Deep Learning is similarly poised to benefit the task of pattern detection in climate science. Unfortunately, labeled datasets, a key pre-requisite for training, are hard to find. Individual research groups are typically interested in specialized weather patterns, making it hard to unify, and share datasets across groups and institutions. In this work, we are proposing ClimateNet: a labeled dataset that provides labeled instances of extreme weather patterns, as well as associated raw fields in model and observational output. We develop a schema in NetCDF to enumerate weather pattern classes/types, store bounding boxes, and pixel-masks. We are also working on a TensorFlow implementation to natively import such NetCDF datasets, and are providing a reference convolutional architecture for binary classification tasks. Our hope is that researchers in Climate Science, as well as ML/DL, will be able to use (and extend) ClimateNet to make rapid progress in the application of Deep Learning for Climate Science research.

Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological variables. To achieve these objectives we consider the main classifications for Iberia developed within the framework of COST action 733 (Radan Huth et al., 2008). This European project aims to provide a wide range of atmospheric circulation classifications for Europe and sub-regions (http://www.cost733.org/) with an ambitious objective of assessing, comparing and classifying all relevant weather situations in Europe. Pereira et al. (2005) "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,129, 11-25. Radan Huth et al. (2008) "Classifications of Atmospheric circulation patterns. Recent advances and applications". Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146: 105-152. doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.019. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Beck M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants. Plasticity in timing of migration in response to climatic conditions and plant phenology may be an adaptive behavioral strategy, which should reduce the detrimental effects of trophic mismatches between resources and other life-history events of large herbivores. Failure to consider effects of nutrition and other life-history traits may cloud interpretation of phenological patterns of mammals and conceal relationships associated with climate change.

Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran.

PubMed

Lopes, Marta S; Royo, Conxita; Alvaro, Fanny; Sanchez-Garcia, Miguel; Ozer, Emel; Ozdemir, Fatih; Karaman, Mehmet; Roustaii, Mozaffar; Jalal-Kamali, Mohammad R; Pequeno, Diego

2018-01-01

Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s) they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years) and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH)] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions). Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading). Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots) was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area) and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny selection are discussed: narrow range of variation for phenology in families may facilitate the discovery and selection of new drought-resistant and avoidant wheat lines targeting specific locations.

Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran

PubMed Central

Lopes, Marta S.; Royo, Conxita; Alvaro, Fanny; Sanchez-Garcia, Miguel; Ozer, Emel; Ozdemir, Fatih; Karaman, Mehmet; Roustaii, Mozaffar; Jalal-Kamali, Mohammad R.; Pequeno, Diego

2018-01-01

Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s) they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years) and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH)] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions). Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading). Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots) was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area) and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny selection are discussed: narrow range of variation for phenology in families may facilitate the discovery and selection of new drought-resistant and avoidant wheat lines targeting specific locations. PMID:29765385

Analysis of utilization of desert habitats with dynamic simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

1986-01-01

The effects of climate and herbivores on cool desert shrubs in north-western Utah were investigated with a dynamic simulation model. Cool desert shrublands are extensively managed as grazing lands, and are defoliated annually by domestic livestock. A primary production model was used to simulate harvest yields and shrub responses under a variety of climatic regimes and defoliation patterns. The model consists of six plant components, and it is based on equations of growth analysis. Plant responses were simulated under various combinations of 20 annual weather patterns and 14 defoliation strategies. Results of the simulations exhibit some unexpected linearities in model behavior, and emphasize the importance of both the pattern of climate and the level of plant vigor in determining optimal harvest strategies. Model behaviors are interpreted in terms of shrub morphology, physiology and ecology.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

PubMed

Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

2016-03-01

The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

Impact of nowcasting on the production and processing of agricultural crops. [in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dancer, W. S.; Tibbitts, T. W.

1973-01-01

The value was studied of improved weather information and weather forecasting to farmers, growers, and agricultural processing industries in the United States. The study was undertaken to identify the production and processing operations that could be improved with accurate and timely information on changing weather patterns. Estimates were then made of the potential savings that could be realized with accurate information about the prevailing weather and short term forecasts for up to 12 hours. This weather information has been termed nowcasting. The growing, marketing, and processing operations of the twenty most valuable crops in the United States were studied to determine those operations that are sensitive to short-term weather forecasting. Agricultural extension specialists, research scientists, growers, and representatives of processing industries were consulted and interviewed. The value of the crops included in this survey and their production levels are given. The total value for crops surveyed exceeds 24 billion dollars and represents more than 92 percent of total U.S. crop value.

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

Field Studies Delve Into the Intricacies of Mountain Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernando, Harindra J. S.; Pardyjak, Eric R.

2013-09-01

Mountain meteorology, in particular weather prediction in complex (rugged) terrain, is emerging as an important topic for science and society. Large urban settlements such as Los Angeles, Hong Kong, and Rio de Janeiro have grown within or in the shadow of complex terrain, and managing the air quality of such cities requires a good understanding of the air flow patterns that spill off of mountains. On a daily time scale, the interconnected engineered and natural systems that sustain urban metabolism and quality of life are affected by weather [Fernando, 2010]. Further, recent military engagements in remote mountainous areas have heightened the need for better weather predictions—alpine warfare is considered to be one of the most dangerous types of combat.

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa

PubMed Central

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth’s climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region. PMID:28290474

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa.

PubMed

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-03-14

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth's climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region.

Developing Snow Model Forcing Data From WRF Model Output to Aid in Water Resource Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Watson, K. A.; Masarik, M.; Flores, A. N.; Kormos, P.; Hedrick, A. R.

2015-12-01

Traditional operational modeling tools used by water managers in the west are challenged by more frequently occurring uncharacteristic stream flow patterns caused by climate change. Water managers are now turning to new models based on the physical processes within a watershed to combat the increasing number of events that do not follow the historical patterns. The USDA-ARS has provided near real time snow water equivalent (SWE) maps using iSnobal since WY2012 for the Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho and since WY2013 for the Tuolumne Basin in California that feeds the Hetch Hetchy reservoir. The goal of these projects is to not only provide current snowpack estimates but to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive iSnobal in order to produce a forecasted stream flow when coupled to a hydrology model. The first step is to develop methods on how to create snow model forcing data from WRF outputs. Using a reanalysis 1km WRF dataset from WY2009 over the Boise River Basin, WRF model results like surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind, precipitation, cloud cover, and incoming long wave radiation must be downscaled for use in iSnobal. iSnobal results forced with WRF output are validated at point locations throughout the basin, as well as compared with iSnobal results forced with traditional weather station data. The presentation will explore the differences in forcing data derived from WRF outputs and weather stations and how this affects the snowpack distribution.

Weather Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

WxLink is an aviation weather system based on advanced airborne sensors, precise positioning available from the satellite-based Global Positioning System, cockpit graphics and a low-cost datalink. It is a two-way system that uplinks weather information to the aircraft and downlinks automatic pilot reports of weather conditions aloft. Manufactured by ARNAV Systems, Inc., the original technology came from Langley Research Center's cockpit weather information system, CWIN (Cockpit Weather INformation). The system creates radar maps of storms, lightning and reports of surface observations, offering improved safety, better weather monitoring and substantial fuel savings.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, G. S.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Space Weather Needs of an Evolving Customer Base (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, B.; Viereck, R. A.; Onsager, T. G.

2013-12-01

Great progress has been made in raising the global awareness of space weather and the associated impacts on Earth and our technological systems. However, significant gaps still exist in providing comprehensive and easily understood space weather information, products, and services to the diverse and growing customer base. As technologies, such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), have become more ingrained in applications and fields of work that previously did not rely on systems sensitive to space weather, the customer base has grown substantially. Furthermore, the causes and effects of space weather can be difficult to interpret without a detailed understanding of the scientific underpinnings. In response to this change, space weather service providers must address this evolution by both improving services and by representing space weather information and impacts in ways that are meaningful to each facet of this diverse customer base. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) must work with users, spanning precision agriculture, emergency management, power grid operators and beyond, to both identify unmet space weather service requirements and to ensure information and decision support services are provided in meaningful and more easily understood forms.

PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA

PubMed Central

Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

2013-01-01

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

2016-04-01

Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more accurate measure of forecast uncertainty that could result in better decision-making. It offers different level of abstractions to help with the recalibration of the RAR method. It also has an inspection tool that displays the selected analogs, their observations and statistical data. It gives the users access to inner parts of the method, unveiling hidden information. References [GR05] GNEITING T., RAFTERY A. E.: Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science 310, 5746, 248-249, 2005. [KAL03] KALNAY E.: Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability. Cambridge University Press, 2003. [PH06] PALMER T., HAGEDORN R.: Predictability of weather and climate. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [HW06] HAMILL T. M., WHITAKER J. S.: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: Theory and application. Monthly Weather Review 134, 11, 3209-3229, 2006. [DE06] DEITRICK S., EDSALL R.: The influence of uncertainty visualization on decision making: An empirical evaluation. Springer, 2006. [KMS08] KEIM D. A., MANSMANN F., SCHNEIDEWIND J., THOMAS J., ZIEGLER H.: Visual analytics: Scope and challenges. Springer, 2008.

Weathering During Glacial-Interglacial Cycles Based on Pb Isotopes at Orphan Knoll, NW Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, S. N.; Martin, E. E.

2017-12-01

Seawater Pb isotopes extracted from FeMn oxyhydroxide coatings on deep sea sediments preserve a record of regional variations in continental weathering intensity. Crocket et al. (2012) documented a distinct increase in seawater Pb isotopes across Termination I (TI) at IODP Sites U1302/03 on Orphan Knoll in the NW Atlantic which they attributed to an increase in weathering intensity associated with ice sheet retreat. Deglaciation during Termination II (TII) was more rapid than TI due to higher insolation forcing and elevated CO2 levels. This rapid warming followed Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11) cooling and circulation changes, but was not interrupted by a Younger Dryas-type reversal in warming. In this study, Pb isotopic data from leachates of the <63 µm fraction of bulk sediment from TII at Sites U1302/03 are used to test whether changes in weathering are a feature of terminations and whether differences in the character of the termination translate to differences in the weathering response. We analyzed the clay/silt fraction to minimize preformed FeMn oxyhydroxides associated with IRD. All three Pb isotopic systems display similar patterns. Seawater 206Pb/204Pb values are 19.5 during MIS 6, reach a minimum of 18.7 during HS11, increase in < 1 ky to 20.6 in MIS 5e, and then vary between 19.9 - 20.5 across MIS 5e-d. In comparison to the TI study (Crocket et al., 2009), the TII HS is defined by a minimum in Pb isotopes that suggests suppressed chemical weathering during cooling and ice sheet advance. The increase in 206Pb/204Pb during TII indicates a rapid increase in weathering at high latitudes following glacial retreat. This result is consistent with a negative shift in ɛNd values during TII observed farther south on Bermuda Rise and interpreted as increased weathering of old continental material (Deaney et al. 2017). Future research on TII at Orphan Knoll includes analyses of detrital Pb isotopes to isolate the impact of changes in source material versus weathering intensity on seawater Pb isotopes, and analyses of seawater Nd isotopes to better understand how changes in circulation might impact delivery of silt/clay fractions to Orphan Knoll. Overall, trends in seawater Pb isotopes at TII illustrate that variations in weathering intensity are sensitive to the rate and magnitude of climate change.

EFRs in the Rocky Mountain Research Station: Understanding patterns of forest growth, weather and disturbance [Chapter 2.8

Treesearch

G. Sam Foster; Todd Mower; Russell Graham; Theresa B. Jain

2014-01-01

How does forest growth integrate weather, insect and disease attach, management actions, and natural disturbance? Which of these has the most impact on forest growth, composition, structure, and change? These questions have animated the activities of scientists of the Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) since its earliest days, and continue to animate our research...

Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Ashley E. Van Beusekom; William A. Gould; A. Carolina Monmany; Azad Henareh Khalyani; Maya Quiñones; Stephen J. Fain; Maria José Andrade-Núñez; Grizelle González

2018-01-01

Abstract Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant...

Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Carol Miller; Cara R. Nelson

2015-01-01

Theory suggests that natural fire regimes can result in landscapes that are both self-regulating and resilient to fire. For example, because fires consume fuel, they may create barriers to the spread of future fires, thereby regulating fire size. Top-down controls such as weather, however, can weaken this effect. While empirical examples demonstrating this pattern-...

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Wang, Hailan; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.

2013-01-01

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Dynamical systems proxies of atmospheric predictability and mid-latitude extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Faranda, Davide; Caballero, Rodrigo; Yiou, Pascal

2017-04-01

Extreme weather ocurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. Many extremes (for e.g. storms, heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation) are tied to specific patterns of midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The ability to identify these patterns and use them to enhance the predictability of the extremes is therefore a topic of crucial societal and economic value. We propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We use two simple dynamical systems metrics - local dimension and persistence - to identify sets of similar large-scale atmospheric flow patterns which present a coherent temporal evolution. When these patterns correspond to weather extremes, they therefore afford a particularly good forward predictability. We specifically test this technique on European winter temperatures, whose variability largely depends on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We find that our dynamical systems approach provides predictability of large-scale temperature extremes up to one week in advance.

Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooley, Clayton; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake

2010-01-01

Water is in high demand for farmers regardless of where you go. Unfortunately, farmers in southern Florida have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. There is an interest by the agricultural community about the effect weather has on usable surface water, however, research into viable weather patterns during La Nina and El Nino has yet to be researched. Using rainfall accumulation data from NASA Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, this project s purpose was to assess the influence of El Nino and La Nina Oscillations on sea breeze thunderstorm patterns, as well as general rainfall patterns during the summer season in South Florida. Through this research we were able to illustrate the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall accumulation for each oscillation in relation to major agricultural areas. The study period for this project is from 1998, when TRMM was first launched, to 2009. Since sea breezes in Florida typically occur in the months of May through October, these months were chosen to be the months of the study. During this time, there were five periods of El Nino and two periods of La Nina, with a neutral period separating each oscillation. In order to eliminate rainfall from systems other than sea breeze thunderstorms, only days that were conducive to the development of a sea breeze front were selected.

AIAA Educator Academy: The Space Weather Balloon Module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longmier, B.; Henriquez, E.; Bering, E. A.; Slagle, E.

2013-12-01

Educator Academy is a K-12 STEM curriculum developed by the STEM K-12 Outreach Committee of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). Consisting of three independent curriculum modules, K-12 students participate in inquiry-based science and engineering challenges to improve critical thinking skills and enhance problem solving skills. The Space Weather Balloon Curriculum Module is designed for students in grades 9-12. Throughout this module, students learn and refine physics concepts as well as experimental research skills. Students participate in project-based learning that is experimental in nature. Students are engaged with the world around them as they collaborate to launch a high altitude balloon equipped with HD cameras.The program leaders launch high altitude weather balloons in collaboration with schools and students to teach physics concepts, experimental research skills, and to make space exploration accessible to students. A weather balloon lifts a specially designed payload package that is composed of HD cameras, GPS tracking devices, and other science equipment. The payload is constructed and attached to the balloon by the students with low-cost materials. The balloon and payload are launched with FAA clearance from a site chosen based on wind patterns and predicted landing locations. The balloon ascends over 2 hours to a maximum altitude of 100,000 feet where it bursts and allows the payload to slowly descend using a built-in parachute. The payload is located using the GPS device. In April 2012, the Space Weather Balloon team conducted a prototype field campaign near Fairbanks Alaska, sending several student-built experiments to an altitude of 30km, underneath several strong auroral displays. To better assist teachers in implementing one or more of these Curriculum Modules, teacher workshops are held to give teachers a hands-on look at how this curriculum is used in the classroom. And, to provide further support, teachers are each provided with an AIAA professional member as a mentor for themselves and/or their students. These curriculum modules, provided by AIAA are available to any K-12 teachers as well as EPO officers for use in formal or informal education settings.

Unpuzzling American Climate: New World Experience and the Foundations of a New Science.

PubMed

White, Sam

2015-09-01

In the early exploration and colonization of the Americas, Europeans encountered unfamiliar climates that challenged received ideas from classical geography. This experience drove innovative efforts to understand and explain patterns of weather and seasons in the New World. A close examination of three climatic puzzles (the habitability of the tropics, debates on the likelihood of a Northwest Passage, and the unexpectedly harsh weather in the first North American colonies) illustrates how sixteenth- and seventeenth-century observers made three intellectual breakthroughs: conceiving of climates as a distinct subject of inquiry, crossing the hitherto-separated disciplines of geography and meteorology, and developing new theories regarding the influence of prevailing winds on patterns of weather and seasons. While unquantified and unsystematic, these novel approaches promoted a new understanding of climates critical to the emergence of climate science. This study offers new insights into the foundations of climatology and the role of the New World in early modern science.

Modelling unsaturated/saturated flow in weathered profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireson, A. M.; Ali, M. A.; Van Der Kamp, G.

2016-12-01

Vertical weathering profiles are a common feature of many geological materials, where the fracture or macropore porosity decreases progressively below the ground surface. The weathered near surface zone (WNSZ) has an enhanced storage and permeability. When the water table is deep, the WNSZ can act to buffer recharge. When the water table is shallow, intersecting the WNSZ, transmissivity and lateral saturated flow, increase with increasing water table elevation. Such a situation exists in the glacial till dominated landscapes of the Canadian prairies, effectively resulting in dynamic patterns of subsurface connectivity. Using dual permeability hydraulic properties with vertically scaled macroporosity, we show how the WNSZ can be represented in models. The resulting model can be more parsimonious than an equivalent model with two or more discrete layers, and more physically realistic. We implement our model in PARFLOW-CLM, and apply the model to a field site in the Canadian prairies. We are able to convincingly simulate shallow groundwater dynamics, and spatio-temporal patterns of groundwater connectivity.

The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Hazel E.; Scaife, Adam A.; Hoskins, Brian J.; Brayshaw, David J.

2017-06-01

Wind power generation in Great Britain has increased markedly in recent years. However due to its intermittency its ability to provide power during periods of high electricity demand has been questioned. Here we characterise the winter relationship between electricity demand and the availability of wind power. Although a wide range of wind power capacity factors is seen for a given demand, the average capacity factor reduces by a third between low and high demand. However, during the highest demand average wind power increases again, due to strengthening easterly winds. The nature of the weather patterns affecting Great Britain are responsible for this relationship. High demand is driven by a range of high pressure weather types, each giving cold conditions, but variable wind power availability. Offshore wind power is sustained at higher levels and offers a more secure supply compared to that onshore. However, during high demand periods in Great Britain neighbouring countries may struggle to provide additional capacity due to concurrent low temperatures and low wind power availability.

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K.; Keyser, D. A.; Mccumber, M. C.

1983-01-01

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

The dust cloud of the century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

1983-02-01

The structure and composition of the dust cloud from the 4 April 1982 eruption of the El Chichon volcano in Chiapas state, Mexico, is examined and the possible effects of the dust cloud on the world's weather patterns are discussed. Observations of the cloud using a variety of methods are evaluated, including data from the GOES and NOAA-7 weather satellites, vertically pointing lidar measurements, the SME satellite, and the Nimbus-7 satellite. Studies of the gaseous and particulate composition of the cloud reveal the presence of large amounts of sulfuric acid particles, which have a long mean residence time in the atmosphere and have a large effect on the amount of solar radiation received at the earth's surface by scattering several percent of the radiation back to space. Estimates of the effect of this cloud on surface air temperature changes are presented based on findings from climate models.

Climate, Waterborne Disease, and Public Health in Eastern Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tirrell, Andrew

2013-04-01

As global temperatures rise, waterborne diseases have expanded their ranges northward. Exposure to new diseases is especially threatening to isolated communities, whose remote locations and lack of health resources and infrastructure leave them particularly vulnerable. For this project, a time series analysis of existing data will be used to assess temporal and spatial associations between long-term, seasonal and short-term weather variability, and waterborne infectious diseases in several Siberian communities. Building on these associations, we will generate estimates of future changes in infectious disease patterns based upon existing forecasts of climate change and likely increases in extreme weather events in eastern Russia. Finally, we will contemplate the public health implications of these findings and offer appropriate policy recommendations. One of our policy aims will be to identify easily measured water quality indicators that may serve as useful proxies for environmental health in rural, especially indigenous, communities.

Solar UV Degradation Patterns in Photodegradable Ldpe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrady, A. L.

2016-02-01

"Degradable" polymers have been proposed as an alternative to traditional polymers as a means to potentially reduce the amount and impacts of plastic marine debris, yet the degradation of these materials in seawater is typically unknown. The light-induced degradation of a copolymer of ethylene - carbon monoxide {1%} was studied under accelerated laboratory exposure conditions. The copolymer, used as a substitute for LDPE in some applications where rapid photodegradation is desirable, loses mechanical integrity and embrittles rapidly under outdoor exposure. A laboratory weathering study of these laminates was carried out to compare the kinetics of degradation on sand to those in seawater at ambient temperature, based on the rate of change in tensile properties of the material. Virgin resin pellets of the copolymer were also exposed to laboratory weathering to detect the generation of microparticles at their surface during extensive degradation. Microparticle generation, detected by laser light scattering, as a function of the exposure duration will also be discussed.

Forecast Tools for Alaska River Ice Breakup Timing and Severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, E. H.; Lindsey, S.; van Breukelen, C. M.; Thoman, R.

2016-12-01

Spring Breakup on the large interior rivers in Alaska means a time of nervous anticipation for many of the residents in the villages alongside those rivers. On the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers the record flood for most villages occurred as a result of ice jams that backed up water and dump truck sized ice floes into the village. Those floods can occur suddenly and can literally wipe out a village. The challenge is that with a limited observation network (3 automated USGS gages along the 1200 miles of the Yukon River flowing through Alaska) and the inherently transient nature of ice jam formation, prediction of the timing and severity of these events has been a tremendous challenge. Staff at the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center as well as the Alaska Region Climate Program Manager have been developing more quantitative tools to attempt to provide a longer lead time for villages to prepare for potentially devastating flooding. In the past, a very qualitative assessment of the primary drivers of Spring Breakup (snow pack, river ice thickness and forecast spring weather) have led to the successful identification of years when flood severity was likely to be elevated or significantly decreased. These qualitative assessments have also allowed the forecasting of the probability of either a thermal or a dynamic breakup. But there has continued to be a need for an objective tool that can handle weather patterns that border on the tails of the climatic distributions as well as the timing and flood potential from weather patterns that are closer to the median of the distribution. Over the past 8 years there have been a significant number of years with anomalous spring weather patterns including cold springs followed by rapid warmups leading to record flooding from ice jams during spring breakup (2009, 2013), record late breakup (2013), record early breakup (2016), record high snowfall (2012), record snowmelt and aufeis flooding (2015) and record low snowfall (2015). The need for improved tools that can handle these events over the full breadth of the distribution has never been greater. This talk will describe efforts to incorporate climate signals into the spring breakup outlook and show results of some temperature based indices as an indicator of breakup timing.

Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip.

PubMed

Zamora, Jane Louie Fresco; Kashihara, Shigeru; Yamaguchi, Suguru

2015-01-01

Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Suguru

2015-01-01

Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values. PMID:26421312

Emergent insects, pathogens and drought shape changing patterns in oak decline in North America and Europe

Treesearch

Laurel J. Haavik; Sharon A. Billings; James M. Guldin; Fred M. Stephen

2015-01-01

Forest declines are well-studied phenomena. However, recent patterns suggest that the traditional sequence of events and factors involved in forest decline are changing. Several reports in recent decades involve emergent mortality agents, many of which are native insects and diseases. In addition, changing climate and weather patterns place increasing emphasis on root...

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R.

1986-10-01

The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April-September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a `normal' year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production.The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia.It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April-September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes.Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the `normal' year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by mesoscale convective weather systems in the drought year accounted for most of the precipitation received during the critical crop growth period.It is concluded that mesoscale convective weather systems may be a crucial precipitation-producing deterrent to drought and an important mechanism for enhancing midsummer crop growth throughout the midwestern United States. Furthermore, because mesoscale convective weather systems account for such a large fraction of the warm-season precipitation, significant improvements in prediction of such systems would likely translate into significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecast skill and corresponding improvements in hydrologic forecasts of runoff.

Weather and Climate Monitoring Protocol, Channel Islands National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Power, Paula; Dye, Linda; Rudolph, Rocky

2008-01-01

Weather and climate are strong drivers of population dynamics, plant and animal spatial distributions, community interactions, and ecosystem states. Information on local weather and climate is crucial in interpreting trends and patterns in the natural environment for resource management, research, and visitor enjoyment. This document describes the weather and climate monitoring program at the Channel Islands National Park (fig. 1), initiated in the 1990s. Manual and automated stations, which continue to evolve as technology changes, are being used for this program. The document reviews the history of weather data collection on each of the five Channel Islands National Park islands, presents program administrative structure, and provides an overview of procedures for data collection, archival, retrieval, and reporting. This program overview is accompanied by the 'Channel Islands National Park Remote Automated Weather Station Field Handbook' and the 'Channel Islands National Park Ranger Weather Station Field Handbook'. These Handbooks are maintained separately at the Channel Island National Park as 'live documents' that are updated as needed to provide a current working manual of weather and climate monitoring procedures. They are available on request from the Weather Program Manager (Channel Islands National Park, 1901 Spinnaker Dr., Ventura, CA 93001; 805.658.5700). The two Field Handbooks describe in detail protocols for managing the four remote automated weather stations (RAWS) and the seven manual Ranger Weather Stations on the islands, including standard operating procedures for equipment maintenance and calibration; manufacturer operating manuals; data retrieval and archiving; metada collection and archival; and local, agency, and vendor contracts.

Conveying Global Circulation Patterns in HDTV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, N.; Janowiak, J.; Kinzler, R.; Trakinski, V.

2006-12-01

The American Museum of Natural History has partnered with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to educate general audiences about weather and climate using high definition video broadcasts built from half-hourly global mosaics of infrared (IR) data from five geostationary satellites. The dataset being featured was developed by NCEP to improve precipitation estimates from microwave data that have finer spatial resolution but poorer temporal coverage. The IR data span +/-60 degrees latitude and show circulation patterns at sufficient resolution to teach informal science center visitors about both weather and climate events and concepts. Design and editorial principles for this media program have been guided by lessons learned from production and annual updates of visualizations that cover eight themes in both biological and Earth system sciences. Two formative evaluations on two dates, including interviews and written surveys of 480 museum visitors ranging in age from 13 to over 60, helped refine the design and implementation of the weather and climate program and demonstrated that viewers understood the program's initial literacy objectives, including: (1) conveying the passage of time and currency of visualized data; (2) geographic relationships inherent to atmospheric circulation patterns; and (3) the authenticity of visualized data, i.e., their origin from earth-orbiting satellites. Surveys also indicated an interest and willingness to learn more about weather and climate principles and events. Expanded literacy goals guide ongoing, biweekly production and distribution of global cloud visualization pieces that reach combined audiences of approximately 10 million. Two more rounds of evaluation are planned over the next two years to assess the effectiveness of the media program in addressing these expanded literacy goals.

Skin histology and its role in heat dissipation in three pinniped species

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pinnipeds have a thick blubber layer and may have difficulty maintaining their body temperature during hot weather when on land. The skin is the main thermoregulatory conduit which emits excessive body heat. Methods Thorough evaluation of the skin histology in three pinniped species; the California sea lion-Zalophus californianus, the Pacific harbor seal-Phoca vitulina richardsi, and the Northern elephant seal-Mirounga angustirostris, was conducted to identify the presence, location and distribution of skin structures which contribute to thermoregulation. These structures included hair, adipose tissue, sweat glands, vasculature, and arteriovenous anastomoses (AVA). Thermal imaging was performed on live animals of the same species to correlate histological findings with thermal emission of the skin. Results The presence and distribution of skin structures directly relates to emissivity of the skin in all three species. Emissivity of skin in phocids (Pacific harbor and Northern elephant seals) follows a different pattern than skin in otariids (California sea lions). The flipper skin in phocids tends to be the most emissive region during hot weather and least emissive during cold weather. On the contrary in otariids, skin of the entire body has a tendency to be emissive during both hot and cold weather. Conclusion Heat dissipation of the skin directly relates to the presence and distribution of skin structures in all three species. Different skin thermal dissipation patterns were observed in phocid versus otariid seals. Observed thermal patterns can be used for proper understanding of optimum thermal needs of seals housed in research facilities, rescue centers and zoo exhibits. PMID:22889205

Titan's seasonal weather patterns, associated surface modification, and geological implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turtle, E. P.; Perry, J. E.; Barnes, J. W.; McEwen, A. S.; Barbara, J. M.; Del Genio, A. D.; Hayes, A. G.; West, R. A.; Lorenz, R. D.; Schaller, E. L.; Lunine, J. I.; Ray, T. L.; Lopes, R. M. C.; Stofan, E. R.

2013-09-01

Model predictions [e.g., 1-3] and observations [e.g., 4,5] illustrate changes in Titan's weather patterns related to the seasons (Fig. 1). In two cases, surface changes were documented following large cloud outbursts (Figs. 2, 3): the first in Arrakis Planitia at high southern latitudes in Fall 2004, during Titan's late southern summer [6]; and the second at lows southern latitudes in Concordia and Hetpet Regiones, Yalaing Terra (Fig. 3), and Adiri, in Fall 2010, just over a year after Titan's northern vernal equinox [4, 7, 8]. Not only do these storms demonstrate Titan's atmospheric conditions and processes, they also have important implications for Titan's surface process, its methane cycle, and its geologic history.

Geomorphic controls of soil spatial complexity in a primeval mountain forest in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daněk, Pavel; Šamonil, Pavel; Phillips, Jonathan D.

2016-11-01

Soil diversity and complexity is influenced by a variety of factors, and much recent research has been focused on interpreting or modeling complexity based on soil-topography relationships, and effects of biogeomorphic processes. We aimed to (i) describe local soil diversity in one of the oldest forest reserves in Europe, (ii) employ existing graph theory concepts in pedocomplexity calculation and extend them by a novel approach based on hypothesis testing and an index measuring graph sequentiality (the extent to which soils have gradual vs. abrupt variations in underlying soil factors), and (iii) reveal the main sources of pedocomplexity, with a particular focus on geomorphic controls. A total of 954 soil profiles were described and classified to soil taxonomic units (STU) within a 46 ha area. We analyzed soil diversity using the Shannon index, and soil complexity using a novel graph theory approach. Pairwise tests of observed adjacencies, spectral radius and a newly proposed sequentiality index were used to describe and quantify the complexity of the spatial pattern of STUs. This was then decomposed into the contributions of three soil factor sequences (SFS), (i) degree of weathering and leaching processes, (ii) hydromorphology, and (iii) proportion of rock fragments. Six Reference Soil Groups and 37 second-level soil units were found. A significant portion of pedocomplexity occurred at distances shorter than the 22 m spacing of neighbouring soil profiles. The spectral radius (an index of complexity) of the pattern of soil spatial adjacency was 14.73, to which the individual SFS accounted for values of 2.0, 8.0 and 3.5, respectively. Significant sequentiality was found for degree of weathering and hydromorphology. Exceptional overall pedocomplexity was particularly caused by enormous spatial variability of soil wetness, representing a crucial soil factor sequence in the primeval forest. Moreover, the soil wetness gradient was partly spatially correlated with the gradient of soil weathering and leaching, suggesting synergistic influences of topography, climate, (hydro)geology and biomechanical and biochemical effects of individual trees. The pattern of stony soils, random in most respects, resulted probably from local geology and quaternary biogeomorphological processes. Thus, while geomorphology is the primary control over a very locally complex soil pattern, microtopography and local disturbances, mostly related to the effects of individual trees, are also critical. Considerable local pedodiversity seems to be an important component of the dynamics of old-growth mixed temperate mountain forests, with implications for decreasing pedodiversity in managed forests and deforested areas.

Wet-weather urban discharges: implications from adopting the revised European Directive concerning the quality of bathing water.

PubMed

David, L M; Matos, J S

2005-01-01

Wet weather urban discharges are responsible for bathing water contamination. The proposal for a revised EU Directive concerning the quality of bathing water imposes significantly more stringent requirements for the management of bathing water quality, with particularly important repercussions on beaches subjected to short-term pollution incidents. The paper reviews the aspects from EU legislation most directly related to the problem of wet-weather discharges, placing special emphasis on the recent revision process of the Directive on bathing water quality, and evaluates the benefits of some potential solutions based on continuous modelling of a combined sewer system. Increasing the sewer system storage capacity or the STP hydraulic capacity may substantially reduce the untreated discharge volumes, but spill frequency reductions under 2 to 3 spill days per bathing season will hardly be achieved. Results show the severe strains that local rainfall patterns would place on compliance with the Commission's proposal for a revised Directive and highlight the importance of the changes introduced in the amended proposal recently approved by the Council, making it less prescriptive if adequate measures are adopted to prevent bathers' exposure to short-term pollution incidents.

Spatial Pattern Classification for More Accurate Forecasting of Variable Energy Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novakovskaia, E.; Hayes, C.; Collier, C.

2014-12-01

The accuracy of solar and wind forecasts is becoming increasingly essential as grid operators continue to integrate additional renewable generation onto the electric grid. Forecast errors affect rate payers, grid operators, wind and solar plant maintenance crews and energy traders through increases in prices, project down time or lost revenue. While extensive and beneficial efforts were undertaken in recent years to improve physical weather models for a broad spectrum of applications these improvements have generally not been sufficient to meet the accuracy demands of system planners. For renewables, these models are often used in conjunction with additional statistical models utilizing both meteorological observations and the power generation data. Forecast accuracy can be dependent on specific weather regimes for a given location. To account for these dependencies it is important that parameterizations used in statistical models change as the regime changes. An automated tool, based on an artificial neural network model, has been developed to identify different weather regimes as they impact power output forecast accuracy at wind or solar farms. In this study, improvements in forecast accuracy were analyzed for varying time horizons for wind farms and utility-scale PV plants located in different geographical regions.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Ionides, Edward L; Knepper, Randall G; Stanuszek, William W; Walker, Edward D; Wilson, Mark L

2012-07-01

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

Sources and seasonal variation of PAHs in the sediments of drinking water reservoirs in Hong Kong and the Dongjiang River (China).

PubMed

Liang, Yan; Fung, Pui Ka; Tse, Man Fung; Hong, Hua Chang; Wong, Ming Hung

2008-11-01

The main objective of this study was to investigate occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the sources of the drinking water supply of Hong Kong. The main emphasis was on the Dongjiang River in mainland China which is the major source, supplying 80% of the total consumption in Hong Kong (the remaining 20% is obtained from rain water). Sediments were collected from four sites along the Dongjiang River and four reservoirs in Hong Kong during both the dry and wet weather seasons. The concentrations of total PAHs in the sediments ranged between 36 and 539 microg/kg dry wt. The lower levels were detected at the upstream site on the Dongjiang River and at the reservoirs in Hong Kong (44-85 microg/kg dry wt), while the mid- and downstream sites on the Dongjiang River were more polluted (588-658 microg/kg dry wt). Examination of the PAH profiles revealed that the mid- and downstream sections of the Dongjiang River contained high percentages of 4,5,6-ring PAHs, similar to the amounts of atmospheric particulate matter and road dust collected during the dry weather season from the Pearl River Delta region as reported in the literature. Seasonal changes were revealed in the reservoirs of Hong Kong, with higher PAH levels in the wet weather season than in the dry weather season. For those reservoirs in Hong Kong that store water from the Dongjiang River, a distinct seasonal pattern was also observed, namely, that under dry weather season conditions the PAHs found in the sediments were primarily from petrogenic source, while under wet weather season conditions they were from pyrolytic sources. No such pattern was detected in the reservoirs which stored only rain water.

Expression of Geochemical Controls on Water Quality in Loch Vale, Rocky Mountain National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podzorski, H.; Navarre-Sitchler, A.; Stets, E.; Clow, D. W.

2017-12-01

Relationships between concentrations of rock weathering products and discharge provide insight into the interactions between climate and solute dynamics. This concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationship is especially interesting in high alpine regions, due to their susceptibility to changes in the timing and magnitude of snowmelt. Previous studies looking at C-Q relationships have concluded that concentrations of conservative solutes remain relatively constant as discharge varies; however, these results may be due to relatively small sample sizes, especially at higher discharge values. Using water chemistry data collected regularly by the U.S. Geological Survey from Loch Vale, a high-elevation catchment in Rocky Mountain National Park, C-Q relationships were examined to determine possible geochemical controls on stream solute concentrations. A record of over 20 years of C-Q data resulted in a pattern that shows little variation in conservative solute concentrations during base flow and larger variations in concentrations around peak discharge. This observed pattern is consistent with accumulation of solutes in pore water during base flow, which are then flushed out and diluted by snowmelt. Further evidence of this flushing out mechanism is found in patterns of hysteresis that are present in annual C-Q relationships. Before peak discharge, concentrations of weathering products are higher than after peak discharge at similar values of discharge. Based on these observations, we hypothesize that the geochemical processes controlling stream chemistry vary by season. During the winter, solute concentrations are transport-limited due to slow subsurface flushing resulting in concentrations that are effectively constant and close to equilibrium. During the spring and summer, concentrations drop sharply after peak discharge due to a combination of dilution and reaction-limited processes under conditions with faster subsurface flow and continued snowmelt. This study provides insight into seasonal geochemical controls on conservative solute concentrations that can be overlooked with small, or seasonally biased, data sets.

Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cathryn H. Greenberg; George W. Tanner

2004-08-31

Cathryn H. Greenberg and George W. Tanner. 2004. Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions. J. Herp. 38(4):569-577. Abstract: Eastern Spadefoot Toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) require fish-free, isolated, ephemeral ponds for breeding but otherwise inhabit the surrounding uplands, commonly xeric longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) wiregrass (Aristida beyrichiana). Hence both pond and upland conditions can potentially affect their breeding biology, and population persistence. Hardwood invasion due to fire suppression in sandhills could alter upland and pond suitability by higher hardwood density and increased transpiration. In this paper we explore breedingmore » and neonatal emigration movements in relation to weather, hydrological conditions of ponds, and surrounding upland matrices. We use 9 years of data from continuous monitoring with drift fences and pitfall traps at 8 ephemeral ponds in 2 upland matrices: regularly-burned, savanna-like sandhills (n = 4), and hardwood-invaded sandhills (n = 4). Neither adult nor neonate captures differed between ponds within the 2 upland matrices, suggesting that they are tolerant of upland heterogeneity created by fire frequency. Explosive breeding occurred during 9 periods and in all seasons; adults were captured rarely otherwise. At a landscape-level rainfall, maximum change in barometric pressure, and an interaction between those 2 variables were significant predictors of explosive breeding. At a pond-level, rainfall, change in pond depth during the month prior to breeding, and days since a pond was last dry were significant predictors of adult captures. Transformation date, rather than weather, was associated with neonatal emigrations, which usually were complete within a week. Movement by first-captured adults and neonates was directional, but adult emigrations were apparently not always toward their origin. Our results suggest that Spadefoot Toads are highly adapted to breeding conditions and upland habitat heterogeneity created by weather patterns and fire frequency in Florida sandhills.« less

GRS evidence and the possibility of paleooceans on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dohm, J.M.; Baker, V.R.; Boynton, W.V.; Fairen, A.G.; Ferris, J.C.; Finch, M.; Furfaro, R.; Hare, T.M.; Janes, D.M.; Kargel, J.S.; Karunatillake, S.; Keller, J.; Kerry, K.; Kim, K.J.; Komatsu, G.; Mahaney, W.C.; Schulze-Makuch, D.; Marinangeli, L.; Ori, G.G.; Ruiz, J.; Wheelock, S.J.

2009-01-01

The Gamma Ray Spectrometer (Mars Odyssey spacecraft) has revealed elemental distributions of potassium (K), thorium (Th), and iron (Fe) on Mars that require fractionation of K (and possibly Th and Fe) consistent with aqueous activity. This includes weathering, evolution of soils, and transport, sorting, and deposition, as well as with the location of first-order geomorphological demarcations identified as possible paleoocean boundaries. The element abundances occur in patterns consistent with weathering in situ and possible presence of relict or exhumed paleosols, deposition of weathered materials (salts and clastic minerals), and weathering/transport under neutral to acidic brines. The abundances are explained by hydrogeology consistent with the possibly overlapping alternatives of paleooceans and/or heterogeneous rock compositions from diverse provenances (e.g., differing igneous compositions). ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

2016-01-01

Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

PubMed

Imholt, Christian; Reil, Daniela; Eccard, Jana A; Jacob, Daniela; Hempelmann, Nils; Jacob, Jens

2015-02-01

Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Geochemistry of loess-paleosol sediments of Kashmir Valley, India: Provenance and weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Ishtiaq; Chandra, Rakesh

2013-04-01

Middle to Late Pleistocene loess-paleosol sediments of Kashmir Valley, India, were analyzed for major, trace and REE elements in order to determine their chemical composition, provenance and intensity of palaeo-weathering of the source rocks. These sediments are generally enriched with Fe2O3, MgO, MnO, TiO2, Y, Ni, Cu, Zn, Th, U, Sc, V and Co while contents of SiO2, K2O, Na2O, P2O5, Sr, Nb and Hf are lower than the UCC. Chondrite normalized REE patterns are characterized by moderate enrichment of LREEs, relatively flat HREE pattern (GdCN/YbCN = 1.93-2.31) and lack of prominent negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.73-1.01, average = 0.81). PAAS normalized REE are characterized by slightly higher LREE, depleted HREE and positive Eu anomaly. Various provenance discrimination diagrams reveal that the Kashmir Loess-Paleosol sediments are derived from the mixed source rocks suggesting large provenance with variable geological settings, which apparently have undergone weak to moderate recycling processes. Weathering indices such as CIA, CIW and PIA values (71.87, 83.83 and 80.57 respectively) and A-CN-K diagram imply weak to moderate weathering of the source material.

Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

PubMed

Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

2015-10-01

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

Meteorological effects on the daily activity patterns of tabanid biting flies in northern Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Van Hennekeler, K; Jones, R E; Skerratt, L F; Muzari, M O; Fitzpatrick, L A

2011-03-01

Information on the daily activity patterns of tabanid flies is important in the development of strategies that decrease the risk of pathogens transmitted by them. In addition, this information is useful to maximize numbers of tabanids trapped during short-term studies and to target feeding behavior studies of certain tabanid species to their times of peak activity. The current study examined the effects of various meteorological factors on the daily activity patterns of common tropical species of tabanids in north Queensland. Each species studied responded differently to weather factors. Tabanus townsvilli Ricardo (Diptera: Tabanidae) was most active during late morning and early afternoon, whereas Pseudotabanus silvester (Bergroth) and Tabanus pallipennis Macquart were most active in the late afternoon. Tabanus dorsobimaculatus Macquart was most active in the morning and early afternoon. Data on daily activity patterns of tabanid flies indicates that in an area such as Townsville, North Queensland, where several species of tabanid are present concurrently in high numbers, the overlapping periods of high activity for these species indicate a high risk of pathogen transmission for most of the day (10.00-19.00 hours). Similarly, because each species responds differently to weather variables, only extreme weather conditions are likely to inhibit activity of all species. These data also indicate that for maximal results, trapping and feeding behavior studies should be tailored to the preferred activity period of the species under investigation. © 2010 The Authors. Medical and Veterinary Entomology © 2010 The Royal Entomological Society.

A method to encapsulate model structural uncertainty in ensemble projections of future climate: EPIC v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Jared; Bodeker, Greg E.; Kremser, Stefanie; Tait, Andrew

2017-12-01

A method, based on climate pattern scaling, has been developed to expand a small number of projections of fields of a selected climate variable (X) into an ensemble that encapsulates a wide range of indicative model structural uncertainties. The method described in this paper is referred to as the Ensemble Projections Incorporating Climate model uncertainty (EPIC) method. Each ensemble member is constructed by adding contributions from (1) a climatology derived from observations that represents the time-invariant part of the signal; (2) a contribution from forced changes in X, where those changes can be statistically related to changes in global mean surface temperature (Tglobal); and (3) a contribution from unforced variability that is generated by a stochastic weather generator. The patterns of unforced variability are also allowed to respond to changes in Tglobal. The statistical relationships between changes in X (and its patterns of variability) and Tglobal are obtained in a training phase. Then, in an implementation phase, 190 simulations of Tglobal are generated using a simple climate model tuned to emulate 19 different global climate models (GCMs) and 10 different carbon cycle models. Using the generated Tglobal time series and the correlation between the forced changes in X and Tglobal, obtained in the training phase, the forced change in the X field can be generated many times using Monte Carlo analysis. A stochastic weather generator is used to generate realistic representations of weather which include spatial coherence. Because GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) are less likely to correctly represent unforced variability compared to observations, the stochastic weather generator takes as input measures of variability derived from observations, but also responds to forced changes in climate in a way that is consistent with the RCM projections. This approach to generating a large ensemble of projections is many orders of magnitude more computationally efficient than running multiple GCM or RCM simulations. Such a large ensemble of projections permits a description of a probability density function (PDF) of future climate states rather than a small number of individual story lines within that PDF, which may not be representative of the PDF as a whole; the EPIC method largely corrects for such potential sampling biases. The method is useful for providing projections of changes in climate to users wishing to investigate the impacts and implications of climate change in a probabilistic way. A web-based tool, using the EPIC method to provide probabilistic projections of changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures for New Zealand, has been developed and is described in this paper.

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses.

PubMed

Djennad, Abdelmajid; Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Sarran, Christophe; Fleming, Lora E; Kessel, Anthony; Haines, Andy; Nichols, Gordon L

2018-04-27

To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory. There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall. The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory.

Human-Centered Systems Analysis of Aircraft Separation from Adverse Weather: Implications for Icing Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

2003-01-01

The objective of this project was to propose a means to improve aviation weather information, training procedures based on a human-centered systems approach. Methodology: cognitive analysis of pilot's tasks; trajectory-based approach to weather information; contingency planning support; and implications for improving weather information.

Trajectory-Based Performance Assessment for Aviation Weather Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

2003-01-01

Based on an analysis of aviation decision-makers' time-related weather information needs, an abstraction of the aviation weather decision task was developed, that involves 4-D intersection testing between aircraft trajectory hypertubes and hazardous weather hypervolumes. The framework builds on the hypothesis that hazardous meteorological fields can be simplified using discrete boundaries of surrogate threat attributes. The abstractions developed in the framework may be useful in studying how to improve the performance of weather forecasts from the trajectory-centric perspective, as well as for developing useful visualization techniques of weather information.

Assessment of CLIGEN precipitation and storm pattern generation under four precipitation depth categories in China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

CLIGEN (CLImate GENerator) is a widely used stochastic weather generator to simulate continuous daily precipitation and storm pattern information for hydrological and soil erosion models. Although CLIGEN has been tested in several regions in the world, thoroughly assessment before applying it to Chi...

Two daily smoke maxima in eighteenth century London air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, R. Giles

Varied electrostatics experiments followed Benjamin Franklin's pioneering atmospheric investigations. In Knightsbridge, Central London, John Read (1726-1814) installed a sensing rod in the upper part of his house and, using a pith ball electrometer and Franklin chimes, monitored atmospheric electricity from 1789 to 1791. Atmospheric electricity is sensitive to weather and smoke pollution. In calm weather conditions, Read observed two daily electrification maxima in moderate weather, around 9 am and 7 pm. This is likely to represent a double diurnal cycle in urban smoke. Before the motor car and steam railways, one source of the double maximum smoke pattern was the daily routine of fire lighting for domestic heating.

Urgency for sustainable development in coastal urban areas with reference to weather pattern, land use, and water quality.

PubMed

Sheela, A M; Letha, J; Swarnalatha, K; Baiju, K V; Sankar, Divya

2014-05-01

Water pollution is one of the most critical problems affecting mankind. Weather pattern and land use of catchment area have significant role in quality of water bodies. Due to climate change, there is frequent variation in weather pattern all over the world. There is also rapid change in land use due to increase in population and urbanization. The study was carried out to analyze the effect of change in weather pattern during the monsoon periods of 2008 and 2012 on water quality of a tropical coastal lake system. The nature and extent of variation in different water quality parameters namely electrical conductivity (EC), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na), chloride (Cl), sulphate (SO4), turbidity, Secchi disk depth, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), phosphate (PO4), calcium (Ca), and water temperature as well as the effect of various land use activities in the lake basin on water quality have also been studied. There is significant reduction in precipitation, EC, Mg, Na, Cl, SO4, turbidity, and Secchi disk depths whereas a significant rise in the BOD, PO4, Ca, and water temperature were observed in 2012. This significant reduction in electrical conductivity during 2012 revealed that because of less precipitation, the lake was separated from the sea by the sandbar during most of the monsoon period and thereby interrupted the natural flushing process. This caused the accumulation of organic matter including phosphate and thereby resulting reduction in clarity and chlorophyll-a (algae) in the lake. The unsustainable development activities of Thiruvanathapuram city are mainly responsible for the degradation of water bodies. The lack of maintenance and augmentation activities namely replacement of old pipes and periodical cleaning of pipe lines of the old sewer system in the city results in the bypass of sewage into water bodies. Because of the existence of the old sewerage system, no effort has been taken by the individual establishment/house of the city to provide their own treatment system for sewage and sullage and the untreated wastes are discharged into these old sewer pipes and ultimately the wastes reach the water bodies. In this context, decentralized treatment of sewage, sullage, and garbage by individual houses/establishments/hotels/hospitals is a better option for the developing countries. With the rapid developmental activities, and due to the variation of precipitation due to climate change, it is highly essential to provide proper waste treatment/augmentation facilities in urban lake system because a slight variation in the weather pattern can result in serious implications in the already polluted water bodies.

Translating weather extremes into the future - a case for Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillmann, Jana; Mueller, Malte; Gjertsen, Uta; Haarsma, Rein; Hazeleger, Wilco; Amundsen, Helene

2017-04-01

We introduce a new project "Translating weather extremes into the future - a case for Norway" (TWEX - http://www.cicero.uio.no/en/twex). In TWEX, we take a novel "Tales of future weather" approach in which we use future scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder in order to gain a more realistic picture of what future weather extremes might look like in a particular context. We focus on hydroclimatic extremes associated with a particular circulation pattern (so-called "Atmospheric River") leading to heavy rainfall in fall and winter along the West Coast of Norway and causing high-impact floods in Norwegian communities. We translate selected past events into the future (e.g., 2090) by using an approach very similar to what is used today for weather prediction. The data generated in TWEX will be distributed by standard (weather prediction) communication channels of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and thus, will be accessible by end-user in a well-known data format for analyzing the impact of the events in the future and support decision-making on hazard prevention and adaptation planning.

Different responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and British Columbia.

PubMed

Wang, Xi-Ling; Yang, Lin; He, Dai-Hai; Chiu, Alice Py; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Chan, King-Pan; Zhou, Maigeng; Wong, Chit-Ming; Guo, Qing; Hu, Wenbiao

2017-06-01

Weather factors have long been considered as key sources for regional heterogeneity of influenza seasonal patterns. As influenza peaks coincide with both high and low temperature in subtropical cities, weather factors may nonlinearly or interactively affect influenza activity. This study aims to assess the nonlinear and interactive effects of weather factors with influenza activity and compare the responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors in two subtropical regions of southern China (Shanghai and Hong Kong) and one temperate province of Canada (British Columbia). Weekly data on influenza activity and weather factors (i.e., mean temperature and relative humidity (RH)) were obtained from pertinent government departments for the three regions. Absolute humidity (AH) was measured by vapor pressure (VP), which could be converted from temperature and RH. Generalized additive models were used to assess the exposure-response relationship between weather factors and influenza virus activity. Interactions of weather factors were further assessed by bivariate response models and stratification analyses. The exposure-response curves of temperature and VP, but not RH, were consistent among three regions/cities. Bivariate response model revealed a significant interactive effect between temperature (or VP) and RH (P < 0.05). Influenza peaked at low temperature or high temperature with high RH. Temperature and VP are important weather factors in developing a universal model to explain seasonal outbreaks of influenza. However, further research is needed to assess the association between weather factors and influenza activity in a wider context of social and environmental conditions.

Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Piticar, Adrian; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Roşca, Cristina Florina

2016-11-01

In the last two decades many climate change studies have focused on extreme temperatures as they have a significant impact on environment and society. Among the weather events generated by extreme temperatures, heat waves are some of the most harmful. The main objective of this study was to detect and analyze changes in heat waves in Romania based on daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) over the extended summer period (May-Sept) using a set of 10 indices and to explore the spatial patterns of changes. Heat wave data series were derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets recorded in 29 weather stations across Romania over a 55-year period (1961-2015). In this study, the threshold chosen was the 90th percentile calculated based on a 15-day window centered on each calendar day, and for three baseline periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010). Two heat wave definitions were considered: at least three consecutive days when maximum temperature exceeds 90th percentile, and at least three consecutive days when minimum temperature exceeds 90th percentile. For each of them, five variables were calculated: amplitude, magnitude, number of events, duration, and frequency. Finally, 10 indices resulted for further analysis. The main results are: most of the indices have statistically significant increasing trends; only one index for one weather station indicated statistically significant decreasing trend; the changes are more intense in case of heat waves detected based on maximum temperature compared to those obtained for heat waves identified based on minimum temperature; western and central regions of Romania are the most exposed to increasing heat waves.

Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada.

PubMed

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike D; Parks, Sean A; Anderson, Kerry R; Little, John M; Taylor, Steve W

2014-08-01

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 10(0) - 10(4) km(2) ). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily consecutive days during the active period. This study examines and compares the Canada-wide patterns in fire-conducive weather ('potential' spread) and the spread that occurs on the ground ('realized' spread). Results show substantial variability in distributions of potential and realized spread days across Canada. Both potential and realized spread are higher in western than in eastern Canada; however, whereas potential spread generally decreases from south to north, there is no such pattern with realized spread. The realized-to-potential fire-spread ratio is considerably higher in northern Canada than in the south, indicating that proportionally more fire-conducive days translate into fire progression. An exploration of environmental correlates to spread show that there may be a few factors compensating for the lower potential spread in northern Canada: a greater proportion of coniferous (i.e., more flammable) vegetation, lesser human impacts (i.e., less fragmented landscapes), sufficient fire ignitions, and intense droughts. Because a linear relationship exists between the frequency distributions of potential spread days and realized spread days in a fire zone, it is possible to obtain one from the other using a simple conversion factor. Our methodology thus provides a means to estimate realized fire spread from weather-based data in regions where fire databases are poor, which may improve our ability to predict future fire activity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pattern recognition applied to infrared images for early alerts in fog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, Vincent; Marchetti, Mario; Dumoulin, Jean; Cord, Aurélien

2014-09-01

Fog conditions are the cause of severe car accidents in western countries because of the poor induced visibility. Its forecast and intensity are still very difficult to predict by weather services. Infrared cameras allow to detect and to identify objects in fog while visibility is too low for eye detection. Over the past years, the implementation of cost effective infrared cameras on some vehicles has enabled such detection. On the other hand pattern recognition algorithms based on Canny filters and Hough transformation are a common tool applied to images. Based on these facts, a joint research program between IFSTTAR and Cerema has been developed to study the benefit of infrared images obtained in a fog tunnel during its natural dissipation. Pattern recognition algorithms have been applied, specifically on road signs which shape is usually associated to a specific meaning (circular for a speed limit, triangle for an alert, …). It has been shown that road signs were detected early enough in images, with respect to images in the visible spectrum, to trigger useful alerts for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

Deterioration and modification of the biosphere leading to irreversible climatic change of the global ecosystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The level, intensity, nature and impact of man's activities upon weather and climatic changes are explored. It is shown that industrialization leads to increased CO2 levels, atmospheric dust content and land surfaces changes. This in turn causes global climatic interactions which results in a general cooling trend. Global cooperation is advocated to stem environmental degradation and weather pattern interruption by the use of corrective mechanisms.

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orrhede, Anna Karin

1990-01-01

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Chemical weathering as a mechanism for the climatic control of bedrock river incision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Brendan P.; Johnson, Joel P. L.; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Sklar, Leonard S.

2016-04-01

Feedbacks between climate, erosion and tectonics influence the rates of chemical weathering reactions, which can consume atmospheric CO2 and modulate global climate. However, quantitative predictions for the coupling of these feedbacks are limited because the specific mechanisms by which climate controls erosion are poorly understood. Here we show that climate-dependent chemical weathering controls the erodibility of bedrock-floored rivers across a rainfall gradient on the Big Island of Hawai‘i. Field data demonstrate that the physical strength of bedrock in streambeds varies with the degree of chemical weathering, which increases systematically with local rainfall rate. We find that incorporating the quantified relationships between local rainfall and erodibility into a commonly used river incision model is necessary to predict the rates and patterns of downcutting of these rivers. In contrast to using only precipitation-dependent river discharge to explain the climatic control of bedrock river incision, the mechanism of chemical weathering can explain strong coupling between local climate and river incision.

East African weathering dynamics controlled by vegetation-climate feedbacks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ivory, Sarah J.; McGlue, Michael M.; Ellis, Geoffrey S.; Boehlke, Adam; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Vincens, Annie; Cohen, Andrew S.

2017-01-01

Tropical weathering has important linkages to global biogeochemistry and landscape evolution in the East African rift. We disentangle the influences of climate and terrestrial vegetation on chemical weathering intensity and erosion at Lake Malawi using a long sediment record. Fossil pollen, microcharcoal, particle size, and mineralogy data affirm that the detrital clays accumulating in deep water within the lake are controlled by feedbacks between climate and hinterland forest composition. Particle-size patterns are also best explained by vegetation, through feedbacks with lake levels, wildfires, and erosion. We develop a new source-to-sink framework that links lacustrine sedimentation to hinterland vegetation in tropical rifts. Our analysis suggests that climate-vegetation interactions and their coupling to weathering/erosion could threaten future food security and has implications for accurately predicting petroleum play elements in continental rift basins.

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation influence on weather regimes over Europe and the Mediterranean in spring and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Toreti, A.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

2017-04-01

We analyze the influence of the Atlantic sea surface temperature multi-decadal variability on the day-by-day sequence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (i.e. the ;weather regimes;) over the Euro-Atlantic region. In particular, we examine of occurrence of weather regimes from 1871 to present. This analysis is conducted by applying a clustering technique on the daily mean sea level pressure field provided by the 20th Century Reanalysis project, which was successfully applied in other studies focused on the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In spring and summer, results show significant changes in the frequencies of certain weather regimes associated with the phase shifts of the AMO. These changes are consistent with the seasonal surface pressure, precipitation, and temperature anomalies associated with the AMO shifts in Europe.

Simulation of precipitation by weather pattern and frontal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert

1995-12-01

Daily rainfall from two sites in central and southern England was stratified according to the presence or absence of weather fronts and then cross-tabulated with the prevailing Lamb Weather Type (LWT). A semi-Markov chain model was developed for simulating daily sequences of LWTs from matrices of transition probabilities between weather types for the British Isles 1970-1990. Daily and annual rainfall distributions were then simulated from the prevailing LWTs using historic conditional probabilities for precipitation occurrence and frontal frequencies. When compared with a conventional rainfall generator the frontal model produced improved estimates of the overall size distribution of daily rainfall amounts and in particular the incidence of low-frequency high-magnitude totals. Further research is required to establish the contribution of individual frontal sub-classes to daily rainfall totals and of long-term fluctuations in frontal frequencies to conditional probabilities.

Development and Evaluation of a City-Wide Wireless Weather Sensor Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Ben; Wang, Hsue-Yie; Peng, Tian-Yin; Hsu, Ying-Shao

2010-01-01

This project analyzed the effectiveness of a city-wide wireless weather sensor network, the Taipei Weather Science Learning Network (TWIN), in facilitating elementary and junior high students' study of weather science. The network, composed of sixty school-based weather sensor nodes and a centralized weather data archive server, provides students…

Elevational species shifts in a warmer climate are overestimated when based on weather station data.

PubMed

Scherrer, Daniel; Schmid, Samuel; Körner, Christian

2011-07-01

Strong topographic variation interacting with low stature alpine vegetation creates a multitude of micro-habitats poorly represented by common 2 m above the ground meteorological measurements (weather station data). However, the extent to which the actual habitat temperatures in alpine landscapes deviate from meteorological data at different spatial scales has rarely been quantified. In this study, we assessed thermal surface and soil conditions across topographically rich alpine landscapes by thermal imagery and miniature data loggers from regional (2-km(2)) to plot (1-m(2)) scale. The data were used to quantify the effects of spatial sampling resolution on current micro-habitat distributions and habitat loss due to climate warming scenarios. Soil temperatures showed substantial variation among slopes (2-3 K) dependent on slope exposure, within slopes (3-4 K) due to micro-topography and within 1-m(2) plots (1 K) as a result of plant cover effects. A reduction of spatial sampling resolution from 1 × 1 m to 100 × 100 m leads to an underestimation of current habitat diversity by 25% and predicts a six-times higher habitat loss in a 2-K warming scenario. Our results demonstrate that weather station data are unable to reflect the complex thermal patterns of aerodynamically decoupled alpine vegetation at the investigated scales. Thus, the use of interpolated weather station data to describe alpine life conditions without considering the micro-topographically induced thermal mosaic might lead to misinterpretation and inaccurate prediction.

Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Conditions for Wildland Fire Management in Alaska using NMME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; Thoman, R.; York, A.; Ziel, R.

2016-12-01

The summer of 2015 was the second largest Alaska fire season since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned and was costly from property loss (> 35M) and emergency personnel (> 17M). In addition to requiring significant resources, wildfire smoke impacts air quality in Alaska and downstream into North America. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Fire managers rely on weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season in advance. Though currently few tested products are available at the seasonal scale. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Advanced knowledge of both lightning and fuel conditions would assist managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) has been used since 1992 because it better suits the Alaska fire regime than the standard US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS). This CFFWIS is based on early afternoon values of 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m winds and daily total precipitation. Extremes of these indices and the variables are used to calculate these indices will be defined in reference to fire weather for the boreal forest. The CFFWIS will be applied and evaluated for the NMME hindcasts. This study will evaluate the quality of the forecasts comparing the hindcast NMME CFFWIS to acres burned in Alaska. Spatial synoptic patterns in the NMME related to fire weather extremes will be constructed using self-organized maps and probabilities of occurrence will be evaluated against acres burned.

Dimensions and dynamics of citizen observatories: The case of online amateur weather networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharesifard, Mohammad; Wehn, Uta; van der Zaag, Pieter

2016-04-01

Crowd-sourced environmental observations are being increasingly considered as having the potential to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution of current data streams from terrestrial and areal sensors. The rapid diffusion of ICTs during the past decades has facilitated the process of data collection and sharing by the general public (so-called citizen science) and has resulted in the formation of various online environmental citizen observatory networks. Online amateur weather networks are a particular example of such ICT-mediated citizen observatories as one of the oldest and most widely practiced citizen science activities. The objective of this paper is to introduce a conceptual framework that enables a systematic review of different dimensions of these mushrooming/expanding networks. These dimensions include the geographic scope and types of network participants; the network's establishment mechanism, revenue stream(s) and existing communication paradigm; efforts required by citizens and support offered by platform providers; and issues such as data accessibility, availability and quality. An in-depth understanding of these dimensions helps to analyze various dynamics such as interactions between different stakeholders, motivations to run these networks, sustainability of the platforms, data ownership and level of transparency of each network. This framework is then utilized to perform a critical and normative review of six existing online amateur weather networks based on publicly available data. The main findings of this analysis suggest that: (1) There are several key stakeholders such as emergency services and local authorities that are not (yet) engaged in these networks. (2) The revenue stream(s) of online amateur weather networks is one of the least discussed but most important dimensions that is crucial for the sustainability of these networks. (3) Although all of the networks included in this study have one or more explicit pattern of two-way communications, there is no sign (yet) of interactive information exchange among the triangle of weather observers, data aggregators and policy makers. KEYWORDS Citizen Science, Citizen Observatories, ICT-enabled citizen participation, online amateur weather networks

Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather and climate drivers, allows identification of well-known features of the regional climate in a purely data-driven fashion. Thus, this approach shows potential for characterization of precipitation extremes in data-scarce and orographically complex regions in which model reconstructions are the only climate proxies References [1] Mínguez, R., F.J. Méndez, C. Izaguirre, M. Menéndez, and I.J. Losada (2010), Pseudooptimal parameter selection of non-stationary generalized extreme value models for environmental variables, Environ. Modell. Softw. 25, 1592-1607. [2] Pineda, L., P. Willems (2016), Multisite Downscaling of Seasonal Predictions to Daily Rainfall Characteristics over Pacific-Andean River Basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model, J. Hydrometeor, 17(2), 481-498, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1

It Takes Two to Tango: Arctic Influence on Mid-Latitude Weather is State-Dependent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, J. A.; Vavrus, S. J.; Cohen, J. L.

2016-12-01

Since the late 1990s the Arctic has been warming two to three times faster than mid-latitude regions, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). During the first half of 2016, AA reached a new record high value. This disproportionate warming is expected to influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere, but understanding exactly how, where, when, and under what conditions has been an active and controversial topic of research. Observational studies of the atmospheric response are challenged by the short record of AA in a noisy environment, while modeling efforts have produced mixed results owing in part to deficiencies in both capturing the full signal of AA and simulating highly amplified atmospheric features (such as blocks, cut-off lows, and sharp ridging). Despite these challenges, progress in understanding the effects of AA on mid-latitude weather has been steady. In this presentation, we will discuss a new hypothesis and supporting evidence suggesting that the influence of regional AA depends on the background state of the large-scale circulation. Long-lived sea-surface temperature patterns in mid-latitudes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, favor particular ridge/trough configurations that affect the magnitude of AA's influence on weather patterns. These relationships vary both regionally and seasonally. As AA continues to strengthen with unabated rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, the mechanisms by which AA affects mid-latitude weather, particularly extreme events, may become clearer. The record-breaking AA of 2016 and associated extreme mid-latitude weather events may be a preview of the "new normal" in a warmer world.

Data Mining for Understanding and Impriving Decision-Making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao Xun; Sridhar, Banavar

2013-01-01

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions. The work reported in this paper is focused on ground delay programs. Data mining algorithms have the potential to develop associations between weather patterns and the corresponding ground delay program responses. If successful, they can be used to improve and standardize TFM decision resulting in better predictability of traffic flows on days with reliable weather forecasts. The approach here seeks to develop a set of data mining and machine learning models and apply them to historical archives of weather observations and forecasts and TFM initiatives to determine the extent to which the theory can predict and explain the observed traffic flow behaviors.

Cloud field classification based upon high spatial resolution textural features. I - Gray level co-occurrence matrix approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, R. M.; Sengupta, S. K.; Chen, D. W.

1988-01-01

Stratocumulus, cumulus, and cirrus clouds were identified on the basis of cloud textural features which were derived from a single high-resolution Landsat MSS NIR channel using a stepwise linear discriminant analysis. It is shown that, using this method, it is possible to distinguish high cirrus clouds from low clouds with high accuracy on the basis of spatial brightness patterns. The largest probability of misclassification is associated with confusion between the stratocumulus breakup regions and the fair-weather cumulus.

A simplified rainfall-runoff stochastic simulation method for an application of the SCHADEX method to ungauged catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penot, David; Paquet, Emmanuel; Lang, Michel

2014-05-01

SCHADEX is a probabilistic method for extreme flood estimation, developed and applied since 2006 at Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design [Paquet et al., 2013]. SCHADEX is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process. The method has been built around two models: a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern (MEWP) distribution for rainfall probability estimation [Garavaglia et al., 2010] and the MORDOR hydrological model. To use SCHADEX in ungauged context, rainfall distribution and hydrological model must be regionalized. The regionalization of the MEWP rainfall distribution can be managed with SPAZM, a daily rainfall interpolator [Gottardi et al., 2012] which provides reasonable estimates of point and areal rainfall up to hight quantiles. The main issue remains to regionalize MORDOR which is heavily parametrized. A much more simple model has been considered: the SCS model. It is a well known model for event simulation [USDA SCS, 1985; Beven, 2003] and it relies on only one parameter. Then, the idea is to use the SCS model instead of MORDOR within a simplified stochastic simulation scheme to produce a distribution of flood volume from an exhaustive crossing between rainy events and catchment saturation hazards. The presentation details this process and its capacity to generate a runoff distribution based on catchment areal rainfall distribution. The simulation method depends on a unique parameter Smax, the maximum initial loss of the catchment. Then an initial loss S (between zero and Smax) can be drawn to account for the variability of catchment state (between dry and saturated). The distribution of initial loss (or conversely, of catchment saturation, as modeled by MORDOR) seems closely linked to the catchment's regime, therefore easily to regionalize. The simulation takes into account a snow contribution for snow driven catchments, and an antecedent runoff. The presentation shows the results of this stochastic procedure applied on 80 French catchments and its capacity to represent the asymptotic behaviour of the runoff distribution. References: K. J. Beven. Rainfall-Runoff modelling The Primer, British Library, 2003. F. Garavaglia, J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14(6):951-964, 2010. F. Gottardi, C. Obled, J. Gailhard, and E. Paquet. Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns : Application over french mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432-433:154-167, 2012. ISSN 0022-1694. E. Paquet, F. Garavaglia, R Garçon, and J. Gailhard. The schadex method : a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 2013. USDA SCS, National Engineering Handbook, Supplement A, Section 4, Chapter 10. Whashington DC, 1985.

Controls on salt mobility and storage in the weathered dolerites of north-east Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, Margaret; Moore, Leah

2014-05-01

Changes in land use and vegetation due to agriculture, forestry practices and urbanisation can mobilise naturally occurring salts in the landscape and accelerate the expression of land and water salinisation, potentially threatening built and natural assets. Some salts are released during rock weathering or are derived from marine sediments or wind-blown dust, but in Tasmania most originate from salt dissolved in rainfall that is concentrated during evaporation. The volume of salts deposited over north-east Tasmania from precipitation exceeds 70kg/ha/year. The dominant lithology of the salt affected regions in Tasmania is dolerite which breaks down to form secondary minerals including: smectite and kaolinite clays and Fe-bearing sesquioxides. The weathering of Tasmanian dolerites, sampled from fresh corestones, weathering rinds and sequentially through the soil horizon, has been examined petrographically and geochemically. The EC1:5 increases with weathering to a maximum 4.9 dS/m and decreases in the pedogenic zone. This confirms field observations that deeply weathered dolerite can serve as a significant store for salt in the landscape. The water associated with dolerite weathering is typically a bicarbonate fluid. The pH1:5 decreases as the samples weather and increases in the pedogenic zone. Clay content increases with distance from corestones (sandy clay loam to heavy clay), and this is also reflected in the density (2.6-1.3 gm/cm3) and loss on ignition (1.3-13.3 wt%). The patterns for Na are complicated as it is enriched through NaCl accession and removed during the weathering of plagioclase. The net enrichment of Cl (up to 5239 ppm) implies decoupling of Cl from Na during weathering. Potassium, Ca and Sr are mobilised from the profile as plagioclase weathers, and silica is progressively lost from the profile with the weathering of silicate phases. Iron is initially mobilised with the weathering of pyroxene and mafic accessory minerals, but is rapidly fixed in the weathering profile as Fe-oxides (hematite, goethite) in veinlets and in association with secondary clays. Pedogenic processes mobilise iron near the land surface. Elements that remain immobile during weathering are Nb, Zr and Ti which partition in resistant accessory phases including zircon. Ongoing X-Ray diffraction and microprobe analysis will further characterise the regolith materials that comprise the salt stores in the landscape. Complementary analysis of rainwater chemistry to determine the patterns and volumes of salt deposition from atmospheric aerosols will allow more accurate quantification of the salt flux in north-east Tasmania. Exploring the complex interactions of biophysical parameters such as rainfall, soil, geology, vegetation and hydrology, the study area can be divided into Hydrogeological Landscape (HGL) units. Preparation of an HGL characterisation for the study area and development of a detailed landscape evolution model will provide an understanding of how regolith materials are distributed in the landscape, how and where salt is stored and how water moves through or over the materials. Describing the association of dolerite with salinity will enable evaluation of land management in other dolerite (or basalt) dominated landscapes.

Assessing seasonality of travel distance to harm reduction service providers among persons who inject drugs.

PubMed

Allen, Sean T; Ruiz, Monica S; Roess, Amira; Jones, Jeff

2015-10-12

Prior research has examined access to syringe exchange program (SEP) services among persons who inject drugs (PWID), but no research has been conducted to evaluate variations in SEP access based on season. This is an important gap in the literature given that seasonal weather patterns and inclement weather may affect SEP service utilization. The purpose of this research is to examine differences in access to SEPs by season among PWID in the District of Columbia (DC). A geometric point distance estimation technique was applied to records from a DC SEP that operated from 1996 to 2011. We calculated the walking distance (via sidewalks) from the centroid point of zip code of home residence to the exchange site where PWID presented for services. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to examine differences in walking distance measures by season. Differences in mean walking distance measures were statistically significant between winter and spring with PWID traveling approximately 2.88 and 2.77 miles, respectively, to access the SEP during these seasons. The results of this study suggest that seasonal differences in SEP accessibility may exist between winter and spring. PWID may benefit from harm reduction providers adapting their SEP operations to provide a greater diversity of exchange locations during seasons in which inclement weather may negatively influence engagement with SEPs. Increasing the number of exchange locations based on season may help resolve unmet needs among injectors.

Cloudy with a Chance of Solar Flares: The Sun as a Natural Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan

2017-01-01

Space weather is a naturally occurring phenomenon that represents a quantifiable risk to space- and ground-based infrastructure as well as society at large. Space weather hazards include permanent and correctable faults in computer systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-frequency communication disturbances, increased airline passenger and astronaut radiation exposure, and electric grid disruption. From the National Space Weather Strategy, published by the Office of Science and Technology Policy in October 2015, space weather refers to the dynamic conditions of the space environment that arise from emissions from the Sun, which include solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections. These emissions can interact with Earth and its surrounding space, including the Earth's magnetic field, potentially disrupting technologies and infrastructures. Space weather is measured using a range of space- and ground-based platforms that directly monitor the Sun, the Earth's magnetic field, the conditions in interplanetary space and impacts at Earth's surface, like neutron ground-level enhancement. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Weather Research Center and their international collaborators in government, industry, and academia are working towards improved techniques for predicting space weather as part of the strategy and action plan to better quantify and mitigate space weather hazards. In addition to accurately measuring and predicting space weather, we also need to continue developing more advanced techniques for evaluating space weather impacts on space- and ground-based infrastructure. Within the Earth's atmosphere, elevated neutron flux driven by atmosphere-particle interactions from space weather is a primary risk source. Ground-based neutron sources form an essential foundation for quantifying space weather impacts in a variety of systems.

ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

2017-10-01

The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

Simulated Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States Water Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Brown, Robert A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation alters global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water quality and supply. ENSO events impact regions and natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997-98, a strong El Ni?o brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding and record snowfall to the west coast of the US. Research on ENSO events and their impacts has improved long range weather predictions, potentially reducing the damage and economic cost of these anomalous weather patterns. Here, we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states on water resources in the conterminous United States. We distinguish between Neutral, El Ni?o,more » La Ni?a and strong El Ni?o years over the period of 1960-1989. Using climate statistics that characterize these ENSO states to drive the HUMUS water resources model, we examine the effects of 'pure' ENSO events, without complications from transition periods. Strong El Ni?o is not simply an amplification of El Ni?o; it leads to strikingly different consequences for climate and water resources.« less

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead.

PubMed

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-03-11

Global climate change is inevitable--the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies.

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead

PubMed Central

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-01-01

Global climate change is inevitable — the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies. PMID:18332386

Spectrum Modal Analysis for the Detection of Low-Altitude Windshear with Airborne Doppler Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunkel, Matthew W.

1992-01-01

A major obstacle in the estimation of windspeed patterns associated with low-altitude windshear with an airborne pulsed Doppler radar system is the presence of strong levels of ground clutter which can strongly bias a windspeed estimate. Typical solutions attempt to remove the clutter energy from the return through clutter rejection filtering. Proposed is a method whereby both the weather and clutter modes present in a return spectrum can be identified to yield an unbiased estimate of the weather mode without the need for clutter rejection filtering. An attempt will be made to show that modeling through a second order extended Prony approach is sufficient for the identification of the weather mode. A pattern recognition approach to windspeed estimation from the identified modes is derived and applied to both simulated and actual flight data. Comparisons between windspeed estimates derived from modal analysis and the pulse-pair estimator are included as well as associated hazard factors. Also included is a computationally attractive method for estimating windspeeds directly from the coefficients of a second-order autoregressive model. Extensions and recommendations for further study are included.

El Niño and its impact on fire weather conditions in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Jason C.; Scott, Carven A.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Examining the relationship of El Niño to weather patterns in Alaska shows wide climate variances that depend on the teleconnection between the tropics and the northern latitudes. However, the weather patterns exhibited in Alaska during and just after moderate to strong El Niño episodes are generally consistent: above normal temperature and precipitation along the Alaskan coast, and above normal temperature and below normal precipitation in the interior, especially through the winter. The warm, dry conditions in the Alaskan interior increase summer wildfire potential. Statistics on the area burned since 1940 show that 15 out of 17 of the biggest fire years occurred during a moderate to strong El Niño episode. These 15 years account for nearly 63% of the total area burned over the last 58 years. Evidence points to increased dry thunderstorms and associated lightning activity during an El Niño episode; the percentage of total area burned by lightning caused fires during five episodes increased from a normal of less than 40% to a high of about 96%.

Identification of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation in the US northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agel, Laurie; Barlow, Mathew; Feldstein, Steven B.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-03-01

Patterns of daily large-scale circulation associated with Northeast US extreme precipitation are identified using both k-means clustering (KMC) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) applied to tropopause height. The tropopause height provides a compact representation of the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity, which is closely related to the overall evolution and intensity of weather systems. Extreme precipitation is defined as the top 1% of daily wet-day observations at 35 Northeast stations, 1979-2008. KMC is applied on extreme precipitation days only, while the SOM algorithm is applied to all days in order to place the extreme results into the overall context of patterns for all days. Six tropopause patterns are identified through KMC for extreme day precipitation: a summertime tropopause ridge, a summertime shallow trough/ridge, a summertime shallow eastern US trough, a deeper wintertime eastern US trough, and two versions of a deep cold-weather trough located across the east-central US. Thirty SOM patterns for all days are identified. Results for all days show that 6 SOM patterns account for almost half of the extreme days, although extreme precipitation occurs in all SOM patterns. The same SOM patterns associated with extreme precipitation also routinely produce non-extreme precipitation; however, on extreme precipitation days the troughs, on average, are deeper and the downstream ridges more pronounced. Analysis of other fields associated with the large-scale patterns show various degrees of anomalously strong moisture transport preceding, and upward motion during, extreme precipitation events.

Exploring the use of weathering indexes in an alluvial fan chronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardenbicker, Ulrike; Watanabe, Makiko; Kotowich, Roberta

2015-04-01

Alluvial fan sediments can act as an archive of local environmental history. Two borehole cores (FN 350 cm and AG 850cm) from Holocene alluvial fans located in the Qu'Appelle Valley in southern Saskatchewan were analyzed in order to identify how changes in land use of upland catchment plateaus modified the pattern and rate of sediment delivery to the fan. Due to the lack of material for radiometric dating a chronology of depositional events within the alluvial fans was established by using lithostratigraphy data of soils and sediments. In order to establish a more detailed relative chronology we evaluated if weathering indexes (the Parker Index, the CaO/ZrO2 molar ratio, the Product Index) originally developed for studies of in situ weathering of bedrock, are suitable to assess sediment weathering within alluvial fan sediments. To quantify the degree of weathering within the sediment samples the three indexes of weathering were calculated using the proportions of elements measure by Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy and there is an inverse relationship between weathering index and sample age. For further statistical analyses the fan sediments were classified into three groups: a sheet flow facies of well sorted silt loam and sandy loam textures, bed load facies characterized by high sand and gravel content and layers with high organic matter in combination with higher clay content indicative of in situ weathering and soil development. First results show that the Product Index may be the most suitable weathering index to indicate weathering or input of less weathered sediment within the sheet flow and bed load facies. In general, the weathering indexes do not take into account complexities of the weathering processes nor the overall environmental conditions in an alluvial fan. But chemical weathering indexes accompanied by geophysical and geo-chemical information have value, especially when the amount of sample material is limited.

Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments.

PubMed

Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy

2016-12-01

A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

The use of fair-weather cases from the ACT-America Summer 2016 field campaign to better constrain regional biogenic CO2 surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudet, B. J.; Davis, K. J.; DiGangi, J. P.; Feng, S.; Hoffman, K.; Jacobson, A. R.; Lauvaux, T.; McGill, M. J.; Miles, N.; Pal, S.; Pauly, R.; Richardson, S.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport - America (ACT-America) study is a multi-year NASA-funded project designed to increase our understanding of regional-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes over North America through aircraft, satellite, and tower-based observations. This is being accomplished through a series of field campaigns that cover three focus regions (Mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast, and Midwest), and all four seasons (summer, winter, fall, and spring), as well as a variety of meteorological conditions. While constraints on GHG fluxes can be derived on the global scale (through remote-site concentration measurements and global flux inversion models) and the local scale (through eddy-covariance flux tower measurements), observational constraints on the intermediate scales are not as readily available. Biogenic CO2 fluxes are particularly challenging because of their strong seasonal and diurnal cycles and large spatial variability. During the summer 2016 ACT field campaign, fair weather days were targeted for special flight patterns designed to estimate surface fluxes at scales on the order of 105 km2 using a modified mass-balance approach. For some onshore flow cases in the Gulf Coast, atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flight transects were performed both inland and offshore when it could be reasonably inferred that the homogeneous Gulf air provided the background GHG field for the inland transect. On other days, two-day flight sequences were performed, where the second-day location of the flight patterns was designed to encompass the air mass that was sampled on the first day. With these flight patterns, the average regional flux can be estimated from the ABL CO2 concentration change. Direct measurements of ABL depth from both aircraft profiles and high-resolution airborne lidar will be used, while winds and free-tropospheric CO2 can be determined from model output and in situ aircraft observations. Here we will present examples of this flux estimation for both Gulf-inflow and two-day fair-weather pattern cases from the summer 2016 ACT-America field campaign. We will also examine processes that lead to uncertainty in these estimates, and quantify these uncertainties. Implications for the ability of this regional flux determination to constrain the existing suite of GHG flux estimates will be discussed.

Weathering fluxes to the Gulf of Mexico from the Pliocene to Holocene based on radiogenic isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portier, A. M.; Martin, E. E.; Hemming, S. R.; Thierens, M. M.; Raymo, M. E.

2014-12-01

Chemical weathering of the continents plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and delivers solutes to the ocean. Past studies, documented using radiogenic isotopes of detrital and seawater samples, show the intensity of weathering varies with climate over a range of time scales.. We analyzed Pb and Nd isotopic values of seawater extracted from dispersed Fe-Mn oxides, <2μm (clay) and <63μm (silt) detrital fractions of Pliocene to Holocene sediment from Gulf of Mexico ODP Site 625B to evaluate long term variations in weathering fluxes for three time slices: the Pliocene/early Pleistocene, Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT), and late Pleistocene/Holocene. We also examine short term glacial/interglacial variations. Little variation is seen in Nd isotopes of detrital fractions with age, suggesting little change in the average age of material delivered to the Gulf. Seawater Nd values become less radiogenic over the Pleistocene, consistent with observed changes in Caribbean seawater. Pb isotopes of silt fractions are also relatively constant through time, but clay fractions are more radiogenic at the MPT and dispersed Fe-Mn oxides trend to more radiogenic values in the late Pleistocene. Consequently, the Pb isotopes of dispersed Fe-Mn oxides tend to be less radiogenic than the detrital fractions in samples older than 2000 ka and more radiogenic than the detrital fractions, particularly clays, at the MPT. This may reflect greater incongruent silicate weathering during the MPT, a change in weathering conditions that could be consistent with the Regolith Hypothesis. Over glacial/interglacial timescales, dispersed Fe-Mn oxides Pb isotopes become more radiogenic than detrital fractions, and clay fractions become more radiogenic than silt fractions, during glacial periods. However, all fractions have similar values during interglacials. This pattern is distinct from previous studies that found enhanced incongruent silicate weathering during warm intervals, but is consistent with recent work finding a correlation with carbonate content, whereby low carbonate during glacials at Site 625 corresponds to a greater offset between leachate and detrital Pb isotopes. Biases from "heavy mineral effects" and changes in circulation during periods of lower sea level also need to be considered.

Silicon isotopes fractionation in meteoric chemical weathering and hydrothermal alteration systems of volcanic rocks (Mayotte)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basile-Doelsch, Isabelle; Puyraveau, Romain-Arnaud; Guihou, Abel; Haurine, Frederic; Deschamps, Pierre; rad, Setareh; Nehlig, Pierre

2017-04-01

Low temperature chemical weathering fractionates silicon (Si) isotopes while forming secondary silicates. The Si fractionation ranges of high temperature secondary phyllosilicates formed in hydrothermal alteration environments have not been investigated to date. Several parameters, including temperature, reaction rates, pH, ionic concentrations in solution, precipitation/dissolution series or kinetic versus equilibrium regime are not the same in hydrothermal alteration and surface weathering systems and may lead to different fractionation factors. In this work, we analyzed Si isotopes in these two types of alteration conditions in two profiles sampled on the volcanic island of Mayotte. In both profiles, Si-bearing secondary mineral was kaolinite. Both profiles showed 30Si depletion as a function of the degree of alteration but each with a distinct pattern. In the meteoric weathering profile, from the bottom to the top, a gradual decrease of the δ30Si from parent rock (-0.29 ± 0.13 ‰) towards the most weathered product (-2.05 ± 0.13 ‰) was observed. In the hydrothermal alteration profile, in which meteoric weathering was also superimposed at the top of the profile, an abrupt transition of the δ30Si was measured at the interface between parent-rock (-0.21 ± 0.11 ‰) and the altered products, with a minimum value of -3.06 ± 0.16 ‰˙ At the scale of Si-bearing secondary minerals, in the chemical weathering system, a Δ30Sikaol-parentrock of -1.9 ‰ was observed, in agreement with results in the literature. A low temperature kinetic fractionation 30ɛ of -2.29 ‰ was calculated using a simple steady state model. However, an unexpected Δ30Sikaol-parentrock of -2.85 ‰ was measured in the hydrothermal alteration site, pointing to possible mechanisms linked to dissolution/precipitation series and/or to ionic composition of the solution as the main controlling factors of fractionation in hydrothermal conditions. At the scale of the profiles, both δ30Si bulk rocks showed linear correlations with the SiO2:Al2O3 ratios, suggesting an alternative alteration index based on Si isotopic composition.

Evaluation of Lightning Jumps as a Predictor of Severe Weather in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eck, Pamela

Severe weather events in the northeastern United States can be challenging to forecast, given how the evolution of deep convection can be influenced by complex terrain and the lack of quality observations in complex terrain. To supplement existing observations, this study explores using lightning to forecast severe convection in areas of complex terrain in the northeastern United States. A sudden increase in lightning flash rate by two standard deviations (2sigma), also known as a lightning jump, may be indicative of a strengthening updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. This study assesses the value of using lightning jumps to forecast severe weather during July 2015 in the northeastern United States. Total lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) is used to calculate lightning jumps using a 2sigma lightning jump algorithm with a minimum threshold of 5 flashes min-1. Lightning jumps are used to predict the occurrence of severe weather, as given by whether a Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather report occurred 45 min after a lightning jump in the same cell. Results indicate a high probability of detection (POD; 85%) and a high false alarm rate (FAR; 89%), suggesting that lightning jumps occur in sub-severe storms. The interaction between convection and complex terrain results in a locally enhanced updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. Thus, it is hypothesized that conditioning on an upslope variable may reduce the FAR. A random forest is introduced to objectively combine upslope flow, calculated using data from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), flash rate (FR), and flash rate changes with time (DFRDT). The random forest, a machine-learning algorithm, uses pattern recognition to predict a severe or non-severe classification based on the predictors. In addition to upslope flow, FR, and DFRDT, Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Level III radar data was also included as a predictor to compare its value to that of lightning data. Results indicate a high POD (82%), a low FAR (28%), and that lightning data and upslope flow data account for 39% and 32% of variable importance, respectively.

Adverse weather conditions and fatal motor vehicle crashes in the United States, 1994-2012.

PubMed

Saha, Shubhayu; Schramm, Paul; Nolan, Amanda; Hess, Jeremy

2016-11-08

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury mortality. Adverse weather and road conditions have the potential to affect the likelihood of motor vehicle fatalities through several pathways. However, there remains a dearth of assessments associating adverse weather conditions to fatal crashes in the United States. We assessed trends in motor vehicle fatalities associated with adverse weather and present spatial variation in fatality rates by state. We analyzed the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) datasets from 1994 to 2012 produced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that contains reported weather information for each fatal crash. For each year, we estimated the fatal crashes that were associated with adverse weather conditions. We stratified these fatalities by months to examine seasonal patterns. We calculated state-specific rates using annual vehicle miles traveled data for all fatalities and for those related to adverse weather to examine spatial variations in fatality rates. To investigate the role of adverse weather as an independent risk factor for fatal crashes, we calculated odds ratios for known risk factors (e.g., alcohol and drug use, no restraint use, poor driving records, poor light conditions, highway driving) to be reported along with adverse weather. Total and adverse weather-related fatalities decreased over 1994-2012. Adverse weather-related fatalities constituted about 16 % of total fatalities on average over the study period. On average, 65 % of adverse weather-related fatalities happened between November and April, with rain/wet conditions more frequently reported than snow/icy conditions. The spatial distribution of fatalities associated with adverse weather by state was different than the distribution of total fatalities. Involvement of alcohol or drugs, no restraint use, and speeding were less likely to co-occur with fatalities during adverse weather conditions. While adverse weather is reported for a large number of motor vehicle fatalities for the US, the type of adverse weather and the rate of associated fatality vary geographically. These fatalities may be addressed and potentially prevented by modifying speed limits during inclement weather, improving road surfacing, ice and snow removal, and providing transit alternatives, but the impact of potential interventions requires further research.

Audio-Visual Situational Awareness for General Aviation Pilots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of general aviation accidents. Researchers are addressing this problem from various perspectives including improving meteorological forecasting techniques, collecting additional weather data automatically via on-board sensors and "flight" modems, and improving weather data dissemination and presentation. We approach the problem from the improved presentation perspective and propose weather visualization and interaction methods tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment (AWE), utilizes information visualization techniques, a direct manipulation graphical interface, and a speech-based interface to improve a pilot's situational awareness of relevant weather data. The system design is based on a user study and feedback from pilots.

GRIP Experiment 2010

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-08-16

A researcher points out the trajectory of a weather pattern on a computer monitor during a flight aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft, Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2010, over the Gulf of Mexico. Sceintists and researchers flew Tuesday to study weather as part of the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment is a NASA Earth science field experiment in 2010 that is being conducted to better understand how tropical storms form and develop into major hurricanes. Photo Credit: (NASA/Paul E. Alers)

Climate Prediction Center - ENSO FAQ

Science.gov Websites

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Additional Links General Questions about El Niño and La Niña What is climate variability? What are El Niño . Impacts How do El Niño and La Niña influence the U.S. Winter weather patterns? How do El Niño and La

Dynamic soil properties in response to anthropogenic disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacker, Veerle; Ortega, Raúl

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic disturbance of natural vegetation can profoundly alter the physical, chemical and biological processes within soils. Rapid removal of topsoil during intense farming can result in an imbalance between soil production through chemical weathering and physical erosion, with direct implications on local biogeochemical cycling. However, the feedbacks between soil erosion, chemical weathering and biogeochemical cycling in response to anthropogenic forcing are not yet fully understood. Here, we study dynamic soil properties for a rapidly changing anthropogenic landscape, and focus on the coupling between physical erosion, soil production and soil chemical weathering. The archaeological site of Santa Maria de Melque (Toledo, Central Spain) was selected for its remarkably long occupation history dating back to the 7th century AD. As part of the agricultural complex, four retention reservoirs were built in the Early Middle Ages. The sedimentary archive was used to track the evolution in sedimentation rates and geochemical properties of the sediment. Catchment-wide soil erosion rates vary slightly between the various occupation phases (7th century-now), but are of the same magnitude as the cosmogenic nuclide-derived erosion rates. However, there exists large spatial variation in physical erosion rates that are coupled with chemical weathering intensities. The sedimentary records suggest that there are important changes in the spatial pattern of sediment source areas through time as a result of changing land use patterns

A conditional approach to determining the effect of anthropogenic climate change on very rare events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Pall, Pardeep; Zarzycki, Colin; Stone, Daithi

2016-04-01

Probabilistic extreme event attribution is especially difficult for weather events that are caused by extremely rare large-scale meteorological patterns. Traditional modeling techniques have involved using ensembles of climate models, either fully coupled or with prescribed ocean and sea ice. Ensemble sizes for the latter case ranges from several 100 to tens of thousand. However, even if the simulations are constrained by the observed ocean state, the requisite large-scale meteorological pattern may not occur frequently enough or even at all in free running climate model simulations. We present a method to ensure that simulated events similar to the observed event are modeled with enough fidelity that robust statistics can be determined given the large scale meteorological conditions. By initializing suitably constrained short term ensemble hindcasts of both the actual weather system and a counterfactual weather system where the human interference in the climate system is removed, the human contribution to the magnitude of the event can be determined. However, the change (if any) in the probability of an event of the observed magnitude is conditional not only on the state of the ocean/sea ice system but also on the prescribed initial conditions determined by the causal large scale meteorological pattern. We will discuss the implications of this technique through two examples; the 2013 Colorado flood and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan.

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.; Jenkins, K.; Mander, S.; Walsh, C.

2016-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

2017-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.; Schell, L.; Parton, W.; Doesken, N.; Redmond, K.; Moeny, J.; McKee, T.; Kittel, T.G.F.

2002-01-01

We evaluated long-term trends in average maximum and minimum temperatures, threshold temperatures, and growing season in eastern Colorado, USA, to explore the potential shortcomings of many climate-change studies that either: (1) generalize regional patterns from single stations, single seasons, or a few parameters over short duration from averaging dissimilar stations: or (2) generalize an average regional pattern from coarse-scale general circulation models. Based on 11 weather stations, some trends were weakly regionally consistent with previous studies of night-time temperature warming. Long-term (80 + years) mean minimum temperatures increased significantly (P < 0.2) in about half the stations in winter, spring, and autumn and six stations had significant decreases in the number of days per year with temperatures ??? - 17.8 ??C (???0??F). However, spatial and temporal variation in the direction of change was enormous for all the other weather parameters tested, and, in the majority of tests, few stations showed significant trends (even at P < 0.2). In summer, four stations had significant increases and three stations had significant decreases in minimum temperatures, producing a strongly mixed regional signal. Trends in maximum temperature varied seasonally and geographically, as did trends in threshold temperature days ???32.2??C (???90??F) or days ???37.8??C (???100??F). There was evidence of a subregional cooling in autumn's maximum temperatures, with five stations showing significant decreasing trends. There were many geographic anomalies where neighbouring weather stations differed greatly in the magnitude of change or where they had significant and opposite trends. We conclude that sub-regional spatial and seasonal variation cannot be ignored when evaluating the direction and magnitude of climate change. It is unlikely that one or a few weather stations are representative of regional climate trends, and equally unlikely that regionally projected climate change from coarse-scale general circulation models will accurately portray trends at sub-regional scales. However, the assessment of a group of stations for consistent more qualitative trends (such as the number of days less than - 17.8??C, such as we found) provides a reasonably robust procedure to evaluate climate trends and variability. Copyright ?? 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Controls on carbon storage and weathering in volcanic soils across a high-elevation climate gradient on Mauna Kea, Hawaii.

PubMed

Kramer, Marc G; Chadwick, Oliver A

2016-09-01

Volcanic ash soils retain the largest and most persistent soil carbon pools of any ecosystem. However, the mechanisms governing soil carbon accumulation and weathering during initial phases of ecosystem development are not well understood. We examined soil organic matter dynamics and soil development across a high-altitude (3,560-3,030 m) 20-kyr climate gradient on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Four elevation sites were selected (~250-500 mm rainfall), which range from sparsely vegetated to sites that contain a mix of shrubs and grasses. At each site, two or three pits were dug and major diagnostic horizons down to bedrock (intact lava) were sampled. Soils were analyzed for particle size, organic C and N, soil pH, exchangeable cations, base saturation, NaF pH, phosphorous sorption, and major elements. Mass loss and pedogenic metal accumulation (hydroxlamine Fe, Al, and Si extractions) were used to measure extent of weathering, leaching, changes in soil mineralogy and carbon accumulation. Reactive-phase (SRO) minerals show a general trend of increasing abundance with increasing rainfall. However carbon accumulation patterns across the climate gradient are largely decoupled from these trends. The results suggest that after 20 kyr, pedogenic processes have altered the nature and composition of the volcanic ash such that it is capable of retaining soil C even where organic acid influences from plant material and leaching from rainfall are severely limited. Carbon storage comparisons with lower-elevation soils on Mauna Kea and other moist mesic (2,500 mm rainfall) sites on Hawaii suggest that these soils have reached only between 1% and 15% of their capacity to retain carbon. Our results suggest that, after 20 kyr in low rainfall and a cold climate, weathering was decoupled from soil carbon accumulation patterns and the associated influence of vegetation on soil development. Overall, we conclude that the rate of carbon supply to the subsoil (driven by coupling of rainfall above ground plant production) is a governing factor of forms and amount of soil organic matter accumulation, while soil mineralogy remained relatively uniform. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Temporal pattern of toxicity in runoff from the Tijuana River Watershed.

PubMed

Gersberg, Richard M; Daft, Daniel; Yorkey, Darryl

2004-02-01

Samples were collected from the Tijuana River under both dry weather (baseflow) conditions and during wet weather, and tested for toxicity using Ceriodaphnia dubia tests. Toxicity of waters in the Tijuana River was generally low under baseflow conditions, but increased markedly during high flow runoff events. In order to determine the temporal pattern of toxicity during individual rain events, sequential grab samples were collected using an autosampler at 5-7 h intervals after the start of the rain event, and tested for acute toxicity. In all cases, peak toxicity values (ranging from 2.8 to 5.8TU) for each storm occurred within the first 1-2 h of initiation of the rain event, and were statistically higher (using the 95% CL) for each of the pre-storm base flow values. However, there was no statistically significant correlation (p<0.05) between flow rate and toxicity when all storm data was pooled. Additionally, we used toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) procedures to attempt to identify the classes of chemicals that account for this early storm toxicity. Solid phase extraction was the only treatment that showed consistent and significant (P<0.05) removal of toxicity. These TIEs, conducted on the most toxic sample of the river's flow during runoff events, suggest that non-polar organics may be responsible for such toxicity. The temporal pattern of toxicity, both during a given storm event and seasonally, indicates that wash-off from the watershed by rainfall may deplete the supply of toxicity available for wash-off in subsequent events, so that a clearly consistent relationship between flow and toxicity was not evident.

Shifts in mortality during a hot weather event in Vancouver, British Columbia: rapid assessment with case-only analysis.

PubMed

Kosatsky, Tom; Henderson, Sarah B; Pollock, Sue L

2012-12-01

We assessed shifts in patterns of mortality during a hot weather event in greater Vancouver, British Columbia. We used a case-only analysis to compare characteristics of individuals who died during the hottest week of 2009 with those who died (1) during earlier summer weeks in 2009 and (2) during the same calendar weeks in the summers of 2001 through 2008. Compared with the 8 previous weeks of 2009, odds of mortality during the summer's hottest week were highest in the 65 to 74 years age category, compared with the 85 years and older category (odds ratio [OR] = 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06, 2.03). The number of deaths at home increased over deaths in hospitals or institutions (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.86). Densely populated administrative health areas were more affected. A shift toward deaths at home suggests that in-home-based protective measures should be part of planning for hot weather events in greater Vancouver. Targeting should be considered for those aged 65 to 74 years. The case-only approach is quick and easy to apply and can provide useful information about localized, time-limited events.

Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists' discomfort from weather in climate change.

Preventing cold-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C; Rajkovich, Nicholas B; White-Newsome, Jalonne L; Larsen, Larissa; Neill, Marie S O

2011-01-01

Winter weather patterns are anticipated to become more variable with increasing average global temperatures. Research shows that excess morbidity and mortality occurs during cold weather periods. We critically reviewed evidence relating temperature variability, health outcomes, and adaptation strategies to cold weather. Health outcomes included cardiovascular-, respiratory-, cerebrovascular-, and all-cause morbidity and mortality. Individual and contextual risk factors were assessed to highlight associations between individual- and neighborhood- level characteristics that contribute to a person’s vulnerability to variability in cold weather events. Epidemiologic studies indicate that the populations most vulnerable to variations in cold winter weather are the elderly, rural and, generally, populations living in moderate winter climates. Fortunately, cold-related morbidity and mortality are preventable and strategies exist for protecting populations from these adverse health outcomes. We present a range of adaptation strategies that can be implemented at the individual, building, and neighborhood level to protect vulnerable populations from cold-related morbidity and mortality. The existing research justifies the need for increased outreach to individuals and communities for education on protective adaptations in cold weather. We propose that future climate change adaptation research couple building energy and thermal comfort models with epidemiological data to evaluate and quantify the impacts of adaptation strategies. PMID:21592693

Assessment of WRF Simulated Precipitation by Meteorological Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenhoff, Brooke Anne

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis.

TECA: Petascale pattern recognition for climate science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prabhat, .; Byna, Surendra; Vishwanath, Venkatram

Climate Change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. Climate simulations provide us with a unique opportunity to examine effects of anthropogenic emissions. Highresolution climate simulations produce “Big Data”: contemporary climate archives are ≈ 5PB in size and we expect future archives to measure on the order of Exa-Bytes. In this work, we present the successful application of TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis) framework, for extracting extreme weather patterns such as Tropical Cyclones, Atmospheric Rivers and Extra-Tropical Cyclones from TB-sized simulation datasets. TECA has been run at full-scale on Cray XE6 and IBMmore » BG/Q systems, and has reduced the runtime for pattern detection tasks from years to hours. TECA has been utilized to evaluate the performance of various computational models in reproducing the statistics of extreme weather events, and for characterizing the change in frequency of storm systems in the future.« less

Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates.

PubMed

Linning, Shannon J; Andresen, Martin A; Brantingham, Paul J

2017-12-01

This study investigates whether crime patterns fluctuate periodically throughout the year using data containing different property crime types in two Canadian cities with differing climates. Using police report data, a series of ordinary least squares (OLS; Vancouver, British Columbia) and negative binomial (Ottawa, Ontario) regressions were employed to examine the corresponding temporal patterns of property crime in Vancouver (2003-2013) and Ottawa (2006-2008). Moreover, both aggregate and disaggregate models were run to examine whether different weather and temporal variables had a distinctive impact on particular offences. Overall, results suggest that cities that experience greater variations in weather throughout the year have more distinct increases of property offences in the summer months and that different climate variables affect certain crime types, thus advocating for disaggregate analysis in the future.

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-07-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate scenarios is evident in most areas, the combination of rainfall patterns and increased photosynthesis efficiency due to CO2 concentrations showed possible improvements of production patterns in some areas, including Southern Europe. The uncertainty deriving from GCM realizations with respect to rainfall suggests that articulated and detailed testing of adaptation techniques would be redundant. Using ensemble simulations would allow for the identification of areas where adaptation, like those simulated, may be run autonomously by farmers, hence not requiring specific intervention in terms of support policies.

Nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) during the maternity season in West Virginia (USA)

Treesearch

Joshua B. Johnson; John W. Edwards; W. Mark Ford

2011-01-01

Nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) at diurnal roost trees remain largely uninvestigated. For example, the influence of reproductive status, weather, and roost tree and surrounding habitat characteristics on timing of emergence, intra-night activity, and entrance at their roost trees is poorly known. We examined...

Patterns of Internet Usage in the Philippines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Labucay, Iremae D.

2014-01-01

This chapter reports on the patterns of Internet use in the Philippines using survey data gathered by Social Weather Stations (SWS), a social research institute in the Philippines. As of March 2014, Internet usage rose to 35 percent of the population compared to 9 percent in 1998. However, the data indicates the presence of digital divide in…

Mountain ranges, climate and weathering. Do orogens strengthen or weaken the silicate weathering carbon sink?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffre, Pierre; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Moquet, Jean-Sébastien; Carretier, Sébastien; Labat, David; Goddéris, Yves

2018-07-01

The role of mountains in the geological evolution of the carbon cycle has been intensively debated for the last decades. Mountains are thought to increase the local physical erosion, which in turns promotes silicate weathering, organic carbon transport and burial, and release of sulfuric acid by dissolution of sulfides. In this contribution, we explore the impact of mountain ranges on silicate weathering. Mountains modify the global pattern of atmospheric circulation as well as the local erosion conditions. Using an IPCC-class climate model, we first estimate the climatic impact of mountains by comparing the present day climate with the climate when all the continents are assumed to be flat. We then use these climate output to calculate weathering changes when mountains are present or absent, using standard expression for physical erosion and a 1D vertical model for rock weathering. We found that large-scale climate changes and enhanced rock supply by erosion due to mountain uplift have opposite effect, with similar orders of magnitude. A thorough testing of the weathering model parameters by data-model comparison shows that best-fit parameterizations lead to a decrease of weathering rate in the absence of mountain by about 20%. However, we demonstrate that solutions predicting an increase in weathering in the absence of mountain cannot be excluded. A clear discrimination between the solutions predicting an increase or a decrease in global weathering is pending on the improvement of the existing global databases for silicate weathering. Nevertheless, imposing a constant and homogeneous erosion rate for models without relief, we found that weathering decrease becomes unequivocal for very low erosion rates (below 10 t/km2/yr). We conclude that further monitoring of continental silicate weathering should be performed with a spatial distribution allowing to discriminate between the various continental landscapes (mountains, plains …).

Weather and Rotation on Young Brown Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vos, Johanna; Biller, Beth; Allers, Katelyn; Manjavacas, Elena; Liu, Michael; Best, William; Metchev, Stanimir; Buenzli, Esther; Bonavita, Mariangela; Eriksson, Simon; Dupuy, Trent; Kopytova, Taisiya; Brandner, Wolfgang; Henning, Thomas; Bonnefoy, Mickael; Crossfield, Ian; Schlieder, Joshua; Homeier, Derek; Janson, Markus; Radigan, Jacqueline

2018-05-01

As part of a large, ground-based survey for weather patterns on exoplanet analogues, we have detected J-band variability in 5 young exoplanet analogues. We have already carried out followup Spitzer monitoring of two objects and here we propose Spitzer 3.6um and 4.5um monitoring of three early-mid-L detections in our survey. The proposed observations will enable us to assess the role of gravity in the variability properties of these young objects by providing a full measure of mid-IR amplitude across the full L spectral sequence for low-gravity objects. The proposed observations will also allow us to measure the rotational periods of our three targets. This will provide vital information on the angular momentum of young brown dwarfs, while enabling us to correct for geometric effects when considering the variability properties of our targets. This study will act as a necessary pathfinder for future variability studies of free-floating and companion exoplanets with JWST.

Microprocessors as a tool in determining correlation between sferics and tornado genesis: an update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Witte, D.R.

1980-09-01

Sferics - atmospheric electromagnetic radiation - can be directly correlated, it is believed, to the genesis of tornadoes and other severe weather. Sferics are generated by lightning and other atmospheric disturbances that are not yet entirely understood. The recording and analysis of the patterns in which sferics events occur, it is hoped, will lead to accurate real-time prediction of tornadoes and other severe weather. Collection of the tremendous amount of sferics data generated by one storm system becomes cumbersome when correlation between at least two stations is necessary for triangulation. Microprocessor-based computing systems have made the task of data collectionmore » and manipulation inexpensive and manageable. The original paper on this subject delivered at MAECON '78 dealt with hardware interfacing. Presented were hardware and software tradeoffs, as well as design and construction techniques to yield a cost effective system. This updated paper presents an overview of where the data comes from, how it is collected, and some current manipulation and interpretation techniques used.« less

Spatial extremes modeling applied to extreme precipitation data in the state of Paraná

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olinda, R. A.; Blanchet, J.; dos Santos, C. A. C.; Ozaki, V. A.; Ribeiro, P. J., Jr.

2014-11-01

Most of the mathematical models developed for rare events are based on probabilistic models for extremes. Although the tools for statistical modeling of univariate and multivariate extremes are well developed, the extension of these tools to model spatial extremes includes an area of very active research nowadays. A natural approach to such a modeling is the theory of extreme spatial and the max-stable process, characterized by the extension of infinite dimensions of multivariate extreme value theory, and making it possible then to incorporate the existing correlation functions in geostatistics and therefore verify the extremal dependence by means of the extreme coefficient and the Madogram. This work describes the application of such processes in modeling the spatial maximum dependence of maximum monthly rainfall from the state of Paraná, based on historical series observed in weather stations. The proposed models consider the Euclidean space and a transformation referred to as space weather, which may explain the presence of directional effects resulting from synoptic weather patterns. This method is based on the theorem proposed for de Haan and on the models of Smith and Schlather. The isotropic and anisotropic behavior of these models is also verified via Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates are made through pairwise likelihood maximum and the models are compared using the Takeuchi Information Criterion. By modeling the dependence of spatial maxima, applied to maximum monthly rainfall data from the state of Paraná, it was possible to identify directional effects resulting from meteorological phenomena, which, in turn, are important for proper management of risks and environmental disasters in countries with its economy heavily dependent on agribusiness.

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Orogen and long-term carbon cycle, what numerical modelling can tell us about their interactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffre, P.; Godderis, Y.; Carretier, S.; Ladant, J. B.; Moquet, J. S.; Donnadieu, Y.

2017-12-01

If the uplift of current mountain ranges is often cited as a possible cause for Cenozoic cooling and the onset of the quaternary glaciation, this hypothesis is highly discussed. The main reason is that mountain uplift has a wide range of consequences, turning on or of sources or sinks of CO2. Most of these CO2 fluxes are still poorly constrained. Indeed, high erosion rates of mountain ranges increase silicate weathering by increasing fresh material supply (Goddéris et al. 2017) and enhance organic matter burial throughout intense sediment discharge by rivers (Galy et al. 2007). Yet, the effect of fresh matter supply by erosion is different if it happens on a weathering-limited or a supply-limited place (West 2012), and as eroded clasts are often weathered in pediments or floodplains (Moquet et al 2011, Lupker et al. 2012), it makes the issue more complex. Moreover, mountain ranges dramatically alter local and global climatic pattern by affecting atmospheric and oceanic circulation (Maffre et al. 2017), which must have consequences on weathering efficiency. Finally, it has been shown that the CO2 source due to sulphur oxidation can locally exceed the CO2 sink associated to silicate weathering (Torres et al. 2016) and may be relevant at geological timescale (Torres et al. 2014). Our aim here is to investigate theses processes in a global model in order to quantify their relative importance. We used the spatially resolved numerical model GEOCLIM (geoclimmodel.worpress.com) to test the effect of orography on CO2 fluxes with present-day continent configuration. We designed for that purpose two experiments, with and without orography, everything else kept as present-day state. Preliminary results show antagonist effects of mountain ranges. While erosion acts to enhance weathering efficiency when mountains are built, dryer and cooler conditions triggered by reorganization of ocean-atmosphere circulation act to reduce it. A first quantification using weathering data to constraint the model gives a probable range of 30% less to 100% more weathering with mountains (at constant CO2), depending on the sensitivity to the model to climate pattern or erosion. The uncertainty is primarily due to the lack of data.

Physical Morphology and Quantitative Characterization of Chemical Changes of Weathered PVC/Pine Composites

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-22

occurred by oxidation process. Also, oxidation and lignin (from the wood) degradation influenced the color (light- ness) of PVC based WPC upon weathering...and lignin (from the wood) degradation influenced the color (lightness) of PVC based WPC upon weathering. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY...with DEab. More importantly, previous report showed that color change in wood during weathering was due to the lignin degradation [33]. Infrared spectra

Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the influence of weather variables on fire activity across a range of time- and spatial-scales. The analysis revealed a general decrease of both number of fires and burned area, although not everywhere with the same magnitude. Overall, regression models where highly significant (p<0.001), and the explained variance ranged from 36% to 80% for fire number and from 37% to 76% for burned area, depending on pyro-climatic area. Moreover, our results contributed in determining the relative importance of climate variables acting at different timescales as control on intrinsic (i.e. flammability and moisture) and extrinsic (i.e. fuel amount and structure) characteristics of vegetation, thus strongly influencing fire occurrence. The good performance of our models, especially in the most fire affected pyro-climatic areas of Italy, and the better understanding of the main driver of fire variability gained through this work could be of great help for fire management among the different pyro-climatic areas.

Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Moreydo, Vsevolod; Motovilov, Yury; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2018-04-01

A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios.

Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

PubMed

Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather patterns can be used to develop short-term mitigation strategies that manipulate N fertilizer and crop rotation to maximize crop N uptake while reducing environmental N losses. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Northern hemisphere jet stream positions indices as diagnostic tools for climate and ecosystem dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belmecheri, Soumaya; Babst, Flurin; Hudson, Amy R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Trouet, Valerie

2017-01-01

The latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream (NHJ) modulates the occurrence and frequency of extreme weather events. Precipitation anomalies in particular are associated with NHJ variability; the resulting floods and droughts can have considerable societal and economic impacts. This study develops a new climatology of the 300-hPa NHJ using a bottom-up approach based on seasonally explicit latitudinal NHJ positions. Four seasons with coherent NHJ patterns were identified (January–February, April–May, July–August, and October–November), along with 32 longitudinal sectors where the seasonal NHJ shows strong spatial coherence. These 32 longitudinal sectors were then used as NHJ position indices to examine the influence of seasonal NHJ position on the geographical distribution of NH precipitation and temperature variability and their link to atmospheric circulation pattern. The analyses show that the NHJ indices are related to broad-scale patterns in temperature and precipitation variability, in terrestrial vegetation productivity and spring phenology, and can be used as diagnostic/prognostic tools to link ecosystem and socioeconomic dynamics to upper-level atmospheric patterns.

Lightning attachment patterns and flight conditions for storm hazards, 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, B. D.; Keyser, G. L., Jr.; Deal, P. L.

1982-01-01

As part of the NASA Langley Research Center Storm Hazards Program, 69 thunderstorm pentrations were made in 1980 with an F-106B airplane in order to record direct strike lightning data and the associated flight conditions. Ground based weather radar measurements in conjunction with these penetrations were made by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma and by NASA Wallops Flight Center in Virginia. In 1980, the airplane received 10 direct lightning strikes; in addition, lightning transient data were recorded from 6 nearby flashes. Following each flight, the airplane was thoroughly inspected for evidence of lightning attachment, and the individual lightning attachment points were plotted on isometric projections of the airplane to identify swept flash patterns. This report presents pilot descriptions of the direct strikes to the airplane, shows the strike attachment patterns that were found, and discusses the implications of the patterns with respect to aircraft protection design. The flight conditions are also included. Finally, the lightning strike scenarios for three U.S. Air Force F-106A airplanes which were struck during routine operations are given in the appendix to this paper.

Mobility of rare earth element in hydrothermal process and weathering product: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintjewas, L.; Setiawan, I.

2018-02-01

The Rare Earth Element (REE), consists of La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, are important elements to be used as raw materials of advanced technology such as semiconductors, magnets, and lasers. The research of REE in Indonesia has not been done. Several researches were conducted on granitic rocks and weathering product such as Bangka, Sibolga, West Kalimantan, West Sulawesi and Papua. REE can be formed by hydrothermal processes such as Bayan Obo, South China. The REE study on active hydrothermal system (geothermal) in this case also has the potential to produce mineral deposits. The purpose of this review paper is to know the mobility of REE on hydrothermal process and weathering products. Mobility of REE in the hydrothermal process can change the distribution patterns and REE content such as Ce, Eu, La, Lu, Nd, Sm, and Y. Another process besides the hydrothermal is weathering process. REE mobility is influenced by weathering products, where the REE will experience residual and secondary enrichment processes in heavier minerals.

Weather conditions: a neglected factor in human salivary cortisol research?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milas, Goran; Šupe-Domić, Daniela; Drmić-Hofman, Irena; Rumora, Lada; Klarić, Irena Martinović

2018-02-01

There is ample evidence that environmental stressors such as extreme weather conditions affect animal behavior and that this process is in part mediated through the elevated activity of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis which results in an increase in cortisol secretion. This relationship has not been extensively researched in humans, and weather conditions have not been analyzed as a potential confounder in human studies of stress. Consequently, the goal of this paper was to assess the relationship between salivary cortisol and weather conditions in the course of everyday life and to test a possible moderating effect of two weather-related variables, the climate region and timing of exposure to outdoors conditions. The sample consisted of 903 secondary school students aged 18 to 21 years from Mediterranean and Continental regions. Cortisol from saliva was sampled in naturalistic settings at three time points over the course of a single day. We found that weather conditions are related to salivary cortisol concentration and that this relationship may be moderated by both the specific climate and the anticipation of immediate exposure to outdoors conditions. Unpleasant weather conditions are predictive for the level of salivary cortisol, but only among individuals who anticipate being exposed to it in the immediate future (e.g., in students attending school in the morning shift). We also demonstrated that isolated weather conditions or their patterns may be relevant in one climate area (e.g., Continental) while less relevant in the other (e.g., Mediterranean). Results of this study draw attention to the importance of controlling weather conditions in human salivary cortisol research.

Pilot behaviors in the face of adverse weather: A new look at an old problem.

PubMed

Batt, Richard; O'Hare, David

2005-06-01

Weather-related general aviation accidents remain one of the most significant causes for concern in aviation safety. Previous studies have typically compared accident and non-accident cases. In contrast, the current study does not concentrate on occurrence outcome. Instead, the emphasis is on the different behaviors that pilots exhibit in the face of adverse weather and, by inference, on the decision-making processes that underlie those behaviors. This study compares three weather-related behaviors that reflect different levels of risk: visual flight rules flight into instrument meteorological conditions ('VFR into IMC'); precautionary landing; and other significant weather avoidance actions. Occurrence data (n=491) were drawn from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau database of aviation occurrences, and included weather-related accidents, incidents, and 'normal operationsd.' There were few significant differences between the three weather-related behavior groups in terms of pilot demographics, aircraft characteristics, geographic or environmental factors, or absolute flight distances. The pattern of relative flight distances (a psychological construct) was markedly different for the three groups, with pilots in the weather avoidance group being distinguished by taking timely action. The relative distance results suggest that the mid-point of the flight can be a 'psychological turning point' for pilots, irrespective of the absolute flight distance involved. Hence, pilots' behavior was sometimes influenced by psychological factors not related to any particular operational aspect of the flight. The results of the weather avoidance group indicate that a safe pilot is a proactive pilot. Dealing with adverse weather is not a one-off decision but a continually evolving process. This aspect is discussed in terms of the concept of 'mindfulness'.

Severe Exoplanetary Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-28

These computer-generated images from NASA Spitzer Space Telescope chart the development of severe weather patterns on the highly eccentric exoplanet HD 80606b during the days after its closest approach to its parent star.

Neoarchean paleoweathering of tonalite and metabasalt: Implications for reconstructions of 2.69Ga early terrestrial ecosystems and paleoatmospheric chemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driese, S.G.; Jirsa, M.A.; Ren, M.; Brantley, S.L.; Sheldon, N.D.; Parker, Dana C.; Schmitz, M.

2011-01-01

Field and laboratory investigations of a 2690.83Ma (207Pb/206Pb age of Saganaga Tonalite) unconformity exposed in outcrop in northeastern Minnesota, USA, reveal evidence for development of a deep paleoweathering profile with geochemical biosignatures consistent with the presence of microbial communities and weakly oxygenated conditions. Weathering profiles are characterized by a 5-50m thick regolith that consists of saprolitized Saganaga Tonalite and Paulson Lake succession basaltic metavolcanic rocks retaining rock structure, which is cross-cut by a major unconformity surface marking development of a successor basin infilled with alluvial deposits. The regolith and unconformity are overlain by thick conglomerate deposits that contain both intrabasinal (saprock) as well as extrabasinal detritus. Thin-section microscopy and electron microprobe analyses reveal extensive hydrolysis and sericitization of feldspars, exfoliation and chloritization of biotite, and weathering of Fe-Mg silicates and Cu-Fe sulfides; weathering of Fe-Ti oxides was relatively less intense than for other minerals and evidence was found for precipitation of Fe oxides. Geochemical analyses of the tonalite, assuming immobile TiO2 during weathering (??Ti,j), show depletion of SiO2, Al2O3, Na2O, CaO, MgO, and MnO, and to a lesser degree of K2O, relative to least-weathered parent materials. Significant Fe was lost from the tonalite. A paleoatmospheric pCO2 of 10-50 times PAL is estimated based on geochemical mass-balance of the tonalite profile and assuming a formation time of 50-500Kyr. Interpretations of metabasalt paleoweathering are complicated by additions of sediment to the profile and extensive diagenetic carbonate (dolomite) overprinting. Patterns of release of P and Fe and retention of Y and Cu in tonalite are consistent with recent laboratory experiments of granite weathering, and with the presence of acidic conditions in the presence of organic ligands (produced, for example, by a primitive microbial community) during weathering. Cu metal in the profile may document lower pO2 than present day at the surface. Comparison with previous studies of weathered tonalite and basalt (Denison, 2.45-2.22Ga) in Ontario, Canada, reveal general similarities in paleoweathering with our study, as well as important differences related to lower paleoatmospheric pO2 and terrestrial biosignature for the older Minnesota profile. A falling water table in the Alpine Lake locality is presumed to have promoted formation of this gossan-like deep-weathering system that extends to 50-m depth. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Movements and bioenergetics of canvasbacks wintering in the upper Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howerter, D.W.

1990-01-01

The movement patterns, range areas and energetics of canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) wintering in the upper Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, were investigated. Eighty-seven juvenile female canvasbacks were radio-tracked between 30 December 1988 and 25 March 1989. Diurnal time and energy budgets were constructed for a time of day-season matrix for canvasbacks using riverine and main bay habitats. Canvasbacks were very active at night, making regular and often lengthy crepuscular movements (x = 11.7 km) from near shore habitats during the day to off shore habitats at night. Movement patterns were similar for birds using habitats on the eastern and western shores of the Bay. Canvasbacks had extensive home ranges averaging 14,286 ha, and used an average of 1.97 core areas. Sleeping was the predominant diurnal behavior. Telemetry indicated that canvasbacks actively fed at night. Canvasbacks spent more time in active behaviors (e.g. swimming, alert) on the eastern shore than on the western shore. Similarly, canvasbacks were more active during daytime hours at locations where artificial feeding occurred. Behavioral patterns were only weakly correlated with weather patterns. Canvasbacks appeared to reduce energy expenditure in mid-winter by reducing distances moved, reducing feeding activities and increasing the amount of time spent sleeping. This pattern was observed even though 1988-89 mid-winter weather conditions were very mild.

A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

2011-01-01

This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 2: Case study results with and without satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Achtemeier, Gary L.; Kidder, Stanley Q.; Scott, Robert W.

1988-01-01

The variational multivariate assimilation method described in a companion paper by Achtemeier and Ochs is applied to conventional and conventional plus satellite data. Ground-based and space-based meteorological data are weighted according to the respective measurement errors and blended into a data set that is a solution of numerical forms of the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation for a dry atmosphere. The analyses serve first, to evaluate the accuracy of the model, and second to contrast the analyses with and without satellite data. Evaluation criteria measure the extent to which: (1) the assimilated fields satisfy the dynamical constraints, (2) the assimilated fields depart from the observations, and (3) the assimilated fields are judged to be realistic through pattern analysis. The last criterion requires that the signs, magnitudes, and patterns of the hypersensitive vertical velocity and local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components be physically consistent with respect to the larger scale weather systems.

Predictable interregional movements by female northern pintails during winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, R.R.; Afton, A.D.

2000-01-01

Factors influencing initiation of regional and interregional movements by nonbreeding ducks are poorly understood, especially during winter. During winters 1990-1991 through 1992-1993, we radiotagged 347 female Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) in southwestern Louisiana and monitored their movements to three regions: (1) the Gulf Coast Region of Louisiana and Texas (outside of southwestern Louisiana), (2) the Rice Prairie Region of Texas, and (3) the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. We found that adult females were 1.9 times more likely than were immatures to emigrate from southwestern Louisiana during winter. During winters 1990-1991 and 1991-1992, females were more likely to emigrate during stormy than during fair weather, whereas they were more likely to emigrate during fair weather in 1992-1993. Females were more likely to emigrate during duck-hunting seasons than during nonhunting seasons, regardless of weather. Daily emigration probabilities did not differ in relation to body condition when released (body mass adjusted for body size) or to number of previous emigration events. Each winter, large numbers of females consistently moved from the Gulf Coast Region to areas with abundant rice (Oryza sativa) agriculture within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. We conclude that destination of interregional movements by this population of Northern Pintails is highly predictable, and that initiation of such movements is influenced by female age and long-term winter precipitation patterns in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Furthermore, timing of these movements is predictable, based not on calendar date, but rather on duck-hunting seasons and, usually, the environmental cues to habitat availability provided by stormy weather.

Weather and climate needs for lidar observations from space and concepts for their realization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, D.; Korb, C. L.

1981-01-01

The spectrum of weather and climate needs for lidar observations from space is discussed. This paper focuses mainly on the requirements for winds, temperature, moisture, and pressure. Special emphasis is given to the need for wind observations, and it is shown that winds are required to depict realistically all atmospheric scales in the tropics and the smaller scales at higher latitudes, where both temperature and wind profiles are necessary. The need for means to estimate air-sea exchanges of sensible and latent heat also is noted. Lidar can aid here by measurement of the slope of the boundary layer. Recent theoretical feasibility studies concerning the profiling of temperature, pressure, and humidity by differential absorption lidar (DIAL) from space and expected accuracies are reviewed. Initial ground-based trials provide support for these approaches and also indicate their direct applicability to path-average temperature measurements near the surface. An alternative approach to Doppler lidar wind measurements also is presented. The concept involves the measurement of the displacement of the aerosol backscatter pattern, at constant height, between two successive scans of the same area, one ahead of the spacecraft and the other behind it, a few minutes later. Finally, an integrated space lidar system capable of measuring temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds which combines the DIAL methods with the aerosol pattern displacement concept is described briefly.

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, David A.; Nelson, Caroline; Shapiro, Gerald

1998-01-01

The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.

Evaluating meteorological data from weather stations, and from satellites and global models for a multi-site epidemiological study.

PubMed

Colston, Josh M; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Mahopo, Cloupas; Kang, Gagandeep; Kosek, Margaret; de Sousa Junior, Francisco; Shrestha, Prakash Sunder; Svensen, Erling; Turab, Ali; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2018-04-21

Longitudinal and time series analyses are needed to characterize the associations between hydrometeorological parameters and health outcomes. Earth Observation (EO) climate data products derived from satellites and global model-based reanalysis have the potential to be used as surrogates in situations and locations where weather-station based observations are inadequate or incomplete. However, these products often lack direct evaluation at specific sites of epidemiological interest. Standard evaluation metrics of correlation, agreement, bias and error were applied to a set of ten hydrometeorological variables extracted from two quasi-global, commonly used climate data products - the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) - to evaluate their performance relative to weather-station derived estimates at the specific geographic locations of the eight sites in a multi-site cohort study. These metrics were calculated for both daily estimates and 7-day averages and for a rotavirus-peak-season subset. Then the variables from the two sources were each used as predictors in longitudinal regression models to test their association with rotavirus infection in the cohort after adjusting for covariates. The availability and completeness of station-based validation data varied depending on the variable and study site. The performance of the two gridded climate models varied considerably within the same location and for the same variable across locations, according to different evaluation criteria and for the peak-season compared to the full dataset in ways that showed no obvious pattern. They also differed in the statistical significance of their association with the rotavirus outcome. For some variables, the station-based records showed a strong association while the EO-derived estimates showed none, while for others, the opposite was true. Researchers wishing to utilize publicly available climate data - whether EO-derived or station based - are advised to recognize their specific limitations both in the analysis and the interpretation of the results. Epidemiologists engaged in prospective research into environmentally driven diseases should install their own weather monitoring stations at their study sites whenever possible, in order to circumvent the constraints of choosing between distant or incomplete station data or unverified EO estimates. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pikalert(R) System Vehicle Data Translator (VDT) Utilizing Integrated Mobile Observations Pikalert VDT Enhancements, Operations, & Maintenance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-24

The Pikalert System provides high precision road weather guidance. It assesses current weather and road conditions based on observations from connected vehicles, road weather information stations, radar, and weather model analysis fields. It also for...

Global Space Weather Observational Network: Challenges and China's Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.

2017-12-01

To understand space weather physical processes and predict space weather accurately, global space-borne and ground-based space weather observational network, making simultaneous observations from the Sun to geo-space (magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere), plays an essential role. In this talk, we will present the advances of the Chinese space weather science missions, including the ASO-S (Advanced Space-borne Solar Observatory), MIT (Magnetosphere - Ionosphere- Thermosphere Coupling Exploration), and the ESA-China joint space weather science mission SMILE (Solar wind - Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Link Explore), a new mission to image the magnetosphere. Compared to satellites, ground-based monitors are cheap, convenient, and provide continuous real-time data. We will also introduce the Chinese Meridian Project (CMP), a ground-based program fully utilizing the geographic location of the Chinese landmass to monitor the geo-space environment. CMP is just one arm of a larger program that Chinese scientists are proposing to the international community. The International Meridian Circle Program (IMCP) for space weather hopes to connect chains of ground-based monitors at the longitudinal meridians 120 deg E and 60 deg W. IMCP takes advantage of the fact that these meridians already have the most monitors of any on Earth, with monitors in Russia, Australia, Brazil, the United States, Canada, and other countries. This data will greatly enhance the ability of scientists to monitor and predict the space weather worldwide.

Modern and prospective technologies for weather modification activities: A look at integrating unmanned aircraft systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axisa, Duncan; DeFelice, Tom P.

2016-09-01

Present-day weather modification technologies are scientifically based and have made controlled technological advances since the late 1990s, early 2000s. The technological advances directly related to weather modification have primarily been in the decision support and evaluation based software and modeling areas. However, there have been some technological advances in other fields that might now be advanced enough to start considering their usefulness for improving weather modification operational efficiency and evaluation accuracy. We consider the programmatic aspects underlying the development of new technologies for use in weather modification activities, identifying their potential benefits and limitations. We provide context and initial guidance for operators that might integrate unmanned aircraft systems technology in future weather modification operations.

Lightning swept-stroke attachment patterns and flight conditions for storm hazards 1981

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, B. D.

1984-01-01

As part of the NASA Langley Research Center Storm Hazards Program, 111 thunderstorm penetrations were made in 1981 with an F-106B airplane in order to record direct-strike lightning data and the associated flight conditions. Ground-based weather radar measurements in conjunction with these penetrations were made by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma and by NASA Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. In 1981, the airplane received 10 direct lightning strikes; in addition, lightning transient data were recorded from 22 nearby flashes. Following each flight, the airplane was thoroughly inspected for evidence of lightning attachment, and the individual lightning attachment points were plotted on isometric projections of the airplane to identify swept-flash patterns. This report shows the strike attachment patterns that were found, and tabulates the flight conditions at the time of each lightning event. Finally, this paper contains a table in which the data in this report are cross-referenced with the previously published electromagnetic waveform data recorded onboard the airplane.

Assessment of water quality monitoring for the optimal sensor placement in lake Yahuarcocha using pattern recognition techniques and geographical information systems.

PubMed

Jácome, Gabriel; Valarezo, Carla; Yoo, Changkyoo

2018-03-30

Pollution and the eutrophication process are increasing in lake Yahuarcocha and constant water quality monitoring is essential for a better understanding of the patterns occurring in this ecosystem. In this study, key sensor locations were determined using spatial and temporal analyses combined with geographical information systems (GIS) to assess the influence of weather features, anthropogenic activities, and other non-point pollution sources. A water quality monitoring network was established to obtain data on 14 physicochemical and microbiological parameters at each of seven sample sites over a period of 13 months. A spatial and temporal statistical approach using pattern recognition techniques, such as cluster analysis (CA) and discriminant analysis (DA), was employed to classify and identify the most important water quality parameters in the lake. The original monitoring network was reduced to four optimal sensor locations based on a fuzzy overlay of the interpolations of concentration variations of the most important parameters.

Mercury Na exospheric emission related to solar disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsini, S.; Mangano, V.; Milillo, A.; Plainaki, C.; Mura, A.; Massetti, S.; Raines, J. M.; De Angelis, E.; Rispoli, R.; Lazzarotto, F.; Aronica, A.

2017-09-01

A first attempt to use Na exospheric emission at Mercury as a proxy of CME transit is presented, in a kind of planetary space weather. The link existing between the dayside exosphere Na pattern at Mercury and the solar wind-magnetosphere-surface interactions is investigated. This goal is pursued by analyzing the Na hourly average distributions, as observed by the ground-based THEMIS solar telescope during 10 selected periods between 2012 and 2013 (seeing <2"), when also data from MESSENGER were available. Very often a two-peak pattern of variable intensity is observed, symmetrically located at high latitudes in both hemispheres. Occasionally, the signal is instead diffused above the sub-solar region. We compare these different Na emission patterns with the time profiles of proton fluxes and magnetic field data, as measured in-situ by MESSENGER. Among these 10 cases, only in one occasion the Na signal is all the time diffused above the subsolar region, and only in this case the MESSENGER data indicate the occurrence of significant solar CME perturbations.

The Design Implementation of an Operational, Computer Based Weather Radar System,

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-01-01

AN OPERATIONAL, COMPUTER-BASED WEATHER RADAR SYSTEM Authors: A P Ball, J L Clarke, M J O’Brien A H Shaw , S E Trigg and T A Voller ’Original contains...A ’Ball, J L/Clarke, MJ/O’Brien A H , Shaw , S E Trigg and T A Voller SUMMARY Inis memorand,,m describes the work of the RSRE Weather Radar Division in...IMPLEMENTATION OF AN OPERATIONAL, COMPUTER BASED WEATHER RADAR SYSTEM A P Ball, J L Clarke, M J O’Brien, A H Shaw , S E Trigg and T A Voller CONTENTS 1

Neural network based short-term load forecasting using weather compensation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chow, T.W.S.; Leung, C.T.

This paper presents a novel technique for electric load forecasting based on neural weather compensation. The proposed method is a nonlinear generalization of Box and Jenkins approach for nonstationary time-series prediction. A weather compensation neural network is implemented for one-day ahead electric load forecasting. The weather compensation neural network can accurately predict the change of actual electric load consumption from the previous day. The results, based on Hong Kong Island historical load demand, indicate that this methodology is capable of providing a more accurate load forecast with a 0.9% reduction in forecast error.

Links between teleconnection patterns and mean temperature in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ríos-Cornejo, David; Penas, Ángel; Álvarez-Esteban, Ramón; del Río, Sara

2015-10-01

This work describes the relationships between Spanish temperature and four teleconnection patterns with influence on the Iberian Peninsula on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales, using data from 144 meteorological stations. Partial correlation analyses were carried out using Spearman test, and spatial distribution maps of the correlation coefficients were produced with geostatistical interpolation techniques. We regionalize the study area based on homogeneous areas containing weather stations with a similar response of temperatures to the same patterns. The links between the temperature and the patterns are mainly positive; only the correlations with Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) in the north and west are negative, indicating that WeMO plays an opposed role in temperature behaviour in Spain. In general terms, the four modes exert considerable influence on temperature in February, May and September. The East Atlantic (EA) is the pattern with the strongest influence on temperature in Spain—mainly in the north—except in June. Generally, on the seasonal and annual scales, large significant areas were only observed for the EA. EA and WeMO best account for the mean temperature on the Mediterranean fringe and in northern Spain, while EA and North Atlantic Oscillation largely explain the temperature in the rest of Spain.

Modeling Child-Nature Interaction in a Nature Preschool: A Proof of Concept.

PubMed

Kahn, Peter H; Weiss, Thea; Harrington, Kit

2018-01-01

This article provides a proof of concept for an approach to modeling child-nature interaction based on the idea of interaction patterns : characterizations of essential features of interaction between humans and nature, specified abstractly enough such that countless different instantiations of each one can occur - in more domestic or wild forms - given different types of nature, people, and purposes. The model draws from constructivist psychology, ecological psychology, and evolutionary psychology, and is grounded in observational data collected through a time-sampling methodology at a nature preschool. Through using a nature language that emphasizes ontogenetic and phylogenetic significance, seven keystone interaction patterns are described for this nature preschool: using one's body vigorously in nature, striking wood on wood, constructing shelter, being in solitude in nature, lying on earth, cohabiting with a wild animal , and being outside in weather . These 7 interactions patterns are then brought together with 13 other patterns published elsewhere to provide a total of 20 keystone interaction patterns that begin to fill out the model, and to show its promise. Discussion focuses on what the model aims to be in terms of both product and process, on what work the model can currently do, and how to further develop the model.

Atmospheric circulation types and daily mortality in Athens, Greece.

PubMed Central

Kassomenos, P; Gryparis, A; Samoli, E; Katsouyanni, K; Lykoudis, S; Flocas, H A

2001-01-01

We investigated the short-term effects of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types on mortality in Athens, Greece. The synoptic patterns in the lower troposphere were classified in 8 a priori defined categories. The mesoscale weather types were classified into 11 categories, using meteorologic parameters from the Athens area surface monitoring network; the daily number of deaths was available for 1987-1991. We applied generalized additive models (GAM), extending Poisson regression, using a LOESS smoother to control for the confounding effects of seasonal patterns. We adjusted for long-term trends, day of the week, ambient particle concentrations, and additional temperature effects. Both classifications, synoptic and mesoscale, explain the daily variation of mortality to a statistically significant degree. The highest daily mortality was observed on days characterized by southeasterly flow [increase 10%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-13.9% compared to the high-low pressure system), followed by zonal flow (5.8%; 95% CI, 1.8-10%). The high-low pressure system and the northwesterly flow are associated with the lowest mortality. The seasonal patterns are consistent with the annual pattern. For mesoscale categories, in the cold period the highest mortality is observed during days characterized by the easterly flow category (increase 9.4%; 95% CI, 1.0-18.5% compared to flow without the main component). In the warm period, the highest mortality occurs during the strong southerly flow category (8.5% increase; 95% CI, 2.0-15.4% compared again to flow without the main component). Adjusting for ambient particle levels leaves the estimated associations unchanged for the synoptic categories and slightly increases the effects of mesoscale categories. In conclusion, synoptic and mesoscale weather classification is a useful tool for studying the weather-health associations in a warm Mediterranean climate situation. PMID:11445513

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Ensuring Access and Usability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Denig, W. F.; Darnel, J.; Kress, B. T.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Machol, J. L.; Redmon, R. J.; Rodriguez, J. V.

2015-12-01

The upcoming Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite series, GOES-R, will provide critical space weather data. These data are used to prevent communication outages, mitigate the damage solar weather causes to satellites and power grids, and reduce astronaut radiation exposure. The space weather instruments aboard GOES-R will deliver an operational dataset of unprecedented breadth. However, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)—the organization that provides access to archived GOES-R data—has faced several challenges in delivering this information to customers in usable form. For instance, the GOES-R ground system was contracted to develop higher-level products for terrestrial data but not space weather data. Variations in GOES-R data file formats and archive locations have also threatened to create an inconsistent user experience. This presentation will examine the ways in which NCEI is making GOES-R space weather data more accessible and actionable for customers. These efforts include NCEI's development of high-level data products to meet the requirements of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center—a role NCEI has not previously played. In addition, NCEI is creating a demonstration system to show how these products can be produced in real-time. The organization is also examining customer usage of the GOES-NOP data access system and using these access patterns to drive decisions about the GOES-R user interface.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather.

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent Mouillot

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of nlodelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Michael D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent Mouillot

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

Treesearch

Jamie M. Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Matthew L. Brooks; John R. Matchett; Kristen L. Shive; Nicholas A. Povak; Van R. Kane; Douglas F. Smith

2017-01-01

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels...

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada).

PubMed

Hewer, Micah J; Scott, Daniel J; Gough, William A

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

Spatial Analysis of Post-Hurricane Katrina Thermal Pattern and Intensity in Greater New Orleans: Implications for Urban Heat Island Phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lief, Aram Parrish

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina's diverse impacts on the Greater New Orleans area included damaged and destroyed trees, and other despoiled vegetation, which also increased the exposure of artificial and bare surfaces, known factors that contribute to the climatic phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI). This is an investigation of UHI in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which entails the analysis of pre and post-hurricane Katrina thermal imagery of the study area, including changes to surface heat patterns and vegetative cover. Imagery from Landsat TM was used to show changes to the pattern and intensity of the UHI effect, caused by an extreme weather event. Using remote sensing visualization methods, in situ data, and local knowledge, the author found there was a measurable change in the pattern and intensity of the New Orleans UHI effect, as well as concomitant changes to vegetative land cover. This finding may be relevant for urban planners and citizens, especially in the context of recovery from a large-scale disaster of a coastal city, regarding future weather events, and other natural and human impacts.

An Analysis Framework Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Understand Landscape Patterns of High Severity Burns from Wildfires in Coastal Woodlands of California and Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, C. S.

2016-12-01

The central California coastal landscape has a history of frequent large wildfires that have threatened or destroyed many residential structures at the wildland interface. This study starts with the largest wildfires on the Central Coast over the past 30 years and analyzes the fraction and landscape patterns of high severity burned (HBS) areas from the Landsat-based Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) data base as a function of weather conditions and topographic variations. Results indicate that maximum temperatures at the time of fire and the previous 12 months of rainfall explained a significant portion of the variation in total area burned and the fraction of HBS area. Average patch size and aggregation metrics of HBS areas were included in the analysis framework. Within each burned area, the Landsat (30-meter resolution) differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), a continuous index of vegetation burn severity, was correlated against slope, aspect, and elevation to better understand landscape level-controls over HBS patches. The Landsat dNBR analysis framework is being extended next to the island of Sardinia, Italy for a comparison of Mediterranean climates and wildfire patterns since the mid-1980s.

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Improving World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates by Integrating NASA Remote Sensing Soil Moisture Data into USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board Decision Making Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; de Jeu, R. A.; Doraiswamy, P. C.; Kempler, S. J.; Shannon, H. D.

2009-12-01

A primary goal of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is to expand markets for U.S. agricultural products and support global economic development. The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) supports this goal by developing monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the U.S. and major foreign producing countries. Because weather has a significant impact on crop progress, conditions, and production, WAOB prepares frequent agricultural weather assessments, in a GIS-based, Global Agricultural Decision Support Environment (GLADSE). The main objective of this project, thus, is to improve WAOB's estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing soil moisture observations and research results into GLADSE. Soil moisture is a primary data gap at WAOB. Soil moisture data, generated by the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM, developed by NASA GSFC and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) and customized to WAOB's requirements, will be directly integrated into GLADSE, as well as indirectly by first being integrated into USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS)'s Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model. The LPRM-enhanced EPIC will be validated using three major agricultural regions important to WAOB and then integrated into GLADSE. Project benchmarking will be based on retrospective analyses of WAOB's analog year comparisons. The latter are between a given year and historical years with similar weather patterns. WAOB is the focal point for economic intelligence within the USDA. Thus, improving WAOB's agricultural estimates by integrating NASA satellite observations and model outputs will visibly demonstrate the value of NASA resources and maximize the societal benefits of NASA investments.

Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

1998-01-01

The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

Analysis on the Intention to Purchase Weather Index Insurance and Development Agenda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.; Jung, J.; Shin, J.; Kim, B.

2013-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how to revitalize weather insurance. Current state of weather insurance market is firstly described, and the necessity of insurance products and intention to purchase are analyzed based on the recognition survey regarding weather insurance focusing on the weather index insurance. The result of intention to purchase insurance products were examined with Ordered Logit Analysis (OLA), indicating that the amount of damages, the impacts of weather change, and experience of damage and loss have a positive relationship with the intention to purchase weather insurance. In addition, recognition of the amount of acceptable payment for insurance (i.e. willingness to pay) was analyzed for both the group who wants to purchase insurance (Group 1) and the group who does not want to (Group 2). The results demonstrate that Group 1 shows statistically higher significance than Group 2. Based on the results above with the increase in abnormal weather phenomena, we could predict that the amount of damages and losses will be rapidly increasing. The portion of weather insurance market is also expected to consistently develop and expand. This study could be a cornerstone for drawing a plan to revitalize weather insurance.

Predicting atmospheric states from local dynamical properties of the underlying attractor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faranda, Davide; Rodrigues, David; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Messori, Gabriele; Yiou, Pascal

2017-04-01

Mid-latitude flows are characterized by a chaotic dynamics and recurring patterns hinting to the existence of an atmospheric attractor. In 1963 Lorenz described this object as: "the collection of all states that the system can assume or approach again and again, as opposed to those that it will ultimately avoid" and analyzed a low dimensional system describing a convective dynamics whose attractor has the shape of a butterfly. Since then, many studies try to find equivalent of the Lorenz butterfly in the complex atmospheric dynamics. Most of the studies where focused to determine the average dimension D of the attractor i.e. the number of degrees of freedom sufficient to describe the atmospheric circulation. However, obtaining reliable estimates of D has proved challenging. Moreover, D does not provide information on transient atmospheric motions, such as those leading to weather extremes. Using recent developments in dynamical systems theory, we show that such motions can be classified through instantaneous rather than average properties of the attractor. The instantaneous properties are uniquely determined by instantaneous dimension and stability. Their extreme values correspond to specific atmospheric patterns, and match extreme weather occurrences. We further show the existence of a significant correlation between the time series of instantaneous stability and dimension and the mean spread of sea-level pressure fields in an operational ensemble weather forecast at lead times of over two weeks. Instantaneous properties of the attractor therefore provide an efficient way of evaluating and informing operational weather forecasts.

STS-48 case study, 17-18 September 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atchison, Michael K.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Warburton, John D.

1992-01-01

Weather conditions are documented prior to and during the STS-48 attempted landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC on 18 Sep. 1991. Trends in meteorological data during 17 and 18 Sep. are examined along with their relationship to the overall weather pattern observed over the KSC region. The primary weather problems during the landing were the formation of showers within 10 nautical miles of the SLF and any ceiling less than 10,000 ft. The controlling factor of the weather was a high pressure ridge that was gradually weakening and moving off the northeast. As this occurred, the low level flow was switching from a easterly to a southeasterly direction. This change in wind direction was reflected by shower movement on the McGill radar and by trends in rawinsondes launched from the Cape. These rawinsondes also indicated that the boundary layers was becoming slightly more unstable several hours prior to the attempted landing which may have aided in the development of clouds and small isolated showers. Also, analyses of Doppler wind profiler and rawinsondes indicated a possible midlevel disturbance in the easterly flow pattern near 700 mb. This weak disturbance may have made the atmosphere a little more unstable early on 18 Sep. Finally, embedded within the southeasterly flow were several bands of low clouds. These clouds were rather difficult to see in unenhanced IR satellite imagery available to forecasters in real time. However, post analyses using several different enhancement curves, adapted from NESDIS, clearly reveals the presence of these clouds.

Atmospheric Turbulence Avoidance

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-09-09

This Advisory Circular (AC) describes to pilots, aircrew members, dispatchers, : and other operations personnel the various types of clear air turbulence (CAT) : and some of the weather patterns associated with it. Also included are "Rules : of Thumb...

Mars Daily Global Image from April 1999

NASA Image and Video Library

2000-09-08

Twelve orbits a day provide NASA Mars Global Surveyor MOC wide angle cameras a global napshot of weather patterns across the planet. Here, bluish-white water ice clouds hang above the Tharsis volcanoes.

Snow model analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

This study developed a new snow model and a database which warehouses geometric, weather and traffic : data on New Jersey highways. The complexity of the model development lies in considering variable road : width, different spreading/plowing pattern...

Venus general atmosphere circulation described by Pioneer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The predominant weather pattern for Venus is described. Wind directions and wind velocities are given. Possible driving forces of the winds are presented and include solar heating, planetary rotation, and the greenhouse effect.

Report on the comparison of the scan strategies employed by the Patrick Air Force Base WSR-74C/McGill radar and the NWS Melbourne WSR-88D radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Gregory; Evans, Randolph; Manobianco, John; Schumann, Robin; Wheeler, Mark; Yersavich, Ann

1994-01-01

The objective of this investigation is to determine whether the current standard WSR-88D radar (NEXRAD) scan strategies permit the use of the Melbourne WSR-88D to perform the essential functions now performed by the Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) WSR-74C/McGill radar for evaluating shuttle weather flight rules (FR) and launch commit criteria (LCC). To meet this objective, the investigation compared the beam coverage patterns of the WSR-74C/McGill radar located at PAFB and the WSR-88D radar located at the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS) Office over the area of concern for weather FR and LCC evaluations. The analysis focused on beam coverage within four vertical 74 km radius cylinders (1 to 4 km above ground level (AGL), 4 to 8 km AGL, 8 to 12 km AGL, and 1 to 12 km AGL) centered on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A. The PAFB WSR-74C/McGill radar is approximately 17 km north-northeast of the Melbourne WSR-88D radar. The beam coverage of the WSR-88D using VCP 11 located at the Melbourne NWS Office is comparable (difference in percent of the atmosphere sampled between the two radars is 10 percent or less) within the area of concern to the beam coverage of the WSR-74C/McGill radar located at PAFB. Both radars provide good beam coverage over much of the atmospheric region of concern. In addition, both radars provide poor beam coverage (coverage less than 50 percent) over limited regions near the radars due to the radars' cone of silence and gaps in coverage within the higher elevation scans. Based on scan strategy alone, the WSR-88D radar could be used to perform the essential functions now performed by the PAFB WSR-74C/McGill radar for evaluating shuttle weather FR and LCC. Other radar characteristics may, however, affect the decision as to which radar to use in a given case.

Paper birch: Sentinels of climate change in the Niobrara River Valley, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther D.

2011-01-01

The Niobrara River Valley in the northern Great Plains supports scattered stands of paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh), a species more typical of boreal forests. These birch stands are considered to be relictual populations that have persisted since the end of the Wisconsin glaciation. Localized summer microclimates have likely facilitated the persistence of birch populations in a region otherwise unsuitable for the species. Dieback of canopy-sized birch has been observed throughout the valley in recent years, although no onset dates are documented. Changes in spring weather patterns may be causing rootlet injury so that trees die in spite of the still-cool summer microclimates. Current weather patterns, combined with little evidence of recruitment of young birch and great geographic distances from potential immigrant sources, make the future persistence of birch in the Niobrara River Valley stands uncertain.

Atmospheric conditions and weather regimes associated with extreme winter dry spells over the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, Florian; Ullmann, Albin; Camberlin, Pierre; Oueslati, Boutheina; Drobinski, Philippe

2018-06-01

Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian "blocking" or "East-Atlantic", and the "Atlantic ridge". Only the The "East-Atlantic", "Atlantic ridge" and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions

Browsing Space Weather Data and Models with the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, Marlo M.; Mullinix, Richard E.; Berrios, David H.; Hesse, Michael; Rastaetter, Lutz; Pulkkinen, Antti; Hourcle, Joseph A.; Thompson, Barbara J.

2011-01-01

The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System is a comprehensive web-based platform for space weather information that combines data from solar, heliospheric and geospace observatories with forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models. The iSWA system collects, generates, and presents a wide array of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. iSWA currently provides over 200 data and modeling products, and features a variety of tools that allow the user to browse, combine, and examine data and models from various sources. This presentation will consist of a summary of the iSWA products and an overview of the customizable user interfaces, and will feature several tutorial demonstrations highlighting the interactive tools and advanced capabilities.

A high-fidelity weather time series generator using the Markov Chain process on a piecewise level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hersvik, K.; Endrerud, O.-E. V.

2017-12-01

A method is developed for generating a set of unique weather time-series based on an existing weather series. The method allows statistically valid weather variations to take place within repeated simulations of offshore operations. The numerous generated time series need to share the same statistical qualities as the original time series. Statistical qualities here refer mainly to the distribution of weather windows available for work, including durations and frequencies of such weather windows, and seasonal characteristics. The method is based on the Markov chain process. The core new development lies in how the Markov Process is used, specifically by joining small pieces of random length time series together rather than joining individual weather states, each from a single time step, which is a common solution found in the literature. This new Markov model shows favorable characteristics with respect to the requirements set forth and all aspects of the validation performed.

Forecasting Cool Season Daily Peak Winds at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe, III; Short, David; Roeder, William

2008-01-01

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Based Nowcasting System: Software Description

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

14. ABSTRACT A Web service /Web interface software package has been engineered to address the need for an automated means to run the Weather Research...An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Based Nowcasting System: Software Description by Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and...Based Nowcasting System: Software Description Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and Robert E. Dumais Jr. Computational and Information Sciences

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

Stages of weathering mantle formation from carbonate rocks in the light of rare earth elements (REE) and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hissler, Christophe; Stille, Peter

2015-04-01

Weathering mantles are widespread and include lateritic, sandy and kaolinite-rich saprolites and residuals of partially dissolved rocks. These old regolith systems have a complex history of formation and may present a polycyclic evolution due to successive geological and pedogenetic processes that affected the profile. Until now, only few studies highlighted the unusual high content of associated trace elements in weathering mantles originating from carbonate rocks, which have been poorly studied, compared to those developing on magmatic bedrocks. For instance, these enrichments can be up to five times the content of the underlying carbonate rocks. However, these studies also showed that the carbonate bedrock content only partially explains the soil enrichment for all the considered major and trace elements. Up to now, neither soil, nor saprolite formation has to our knowledge been geochemically elucidated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine more closely the soil forming dynamics and the relationship of the chemical soil composition to potential sources. REE distribution patterns and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios have been used because they are particularly well suited to identify trace element migration, to recognize origin and mixing processes and, in addition, to decipher possible anthropogenic and/or "natural" atmosphere-derived contributions to the soil. Moreover, leaching experiments have been applied to identify mobile phases in the soil system and to yield information on the stability of trace elements and especially on their behaviour in these Fe-enriched carbonate systems. All these geochemical informations indicate that the cambisol developing on such a typical weathering mantle ("terra fusca") has been formed through weathering of a condensed Bajocian limestone-marl facies. This facies shows compared to average world carbonates important trace element enrichments. Their trace element distribution patterns are similar to those of the soil suggesting their close genetic relationships. Sr-Nd-Pb isotope data allow to identify four principal components in the soil: a silicate-rich pool at close to the surface, a leachable REE enriched pool at the bottom of the soil profile, the limestone facies on which the weathering profile developed and an anthropogenic, atmosphere-derived component detected in the soil leachates of the uppermost soil horizon. The leachable phases are mainly secondary carbonate-bearing REE phases such as bastnaesite. The isotope data and trace element distribution patterns indicate that at least four geological and environmental events impacted the chemical and isotopical compositions of the soil system since the Cretaceous.

Precipitation and primary health care visits for gastrointestinal illness in Gothenburg, Sweden.

PubMed

Tornevi, Andreas; Barregård, Lars; Forsberg, Bertil

2015-01-01

The river Göta Älv is a source of freshwater for the City of Gothenburg, Sweden, and we recently identified a clear influence of upstream precipitation on concentrations of indicator bacteria in the river water, as well as an association with the daily number of phone calls to the nurse advice line related to acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGI calls). This study aimed to examine visits to primary health-care centers owing to similar symptoms (AGI visits) in the same area, to explore associations with precipitation, and to compare variability in AGI visits and AGI calls. We obtained data covering six years (2007-2012) of daily AGI visits and studied their association with prior precipitation (0-28 days) using a distributed lag nonlinear Poisson regression model, adjusting for seasonal patterns and covariates. In addition, we studied the effects of prolonged wet and dry weather on AGI visits. We analyzed lagged short-term relations between AGI visits and AGI calls, and we studied differences in their seasonal patterns using a binomial regression model. The study period saw a total of 17,030 AGI visits, and the number of daily visits decreased on days when precipitation occurred. However, prolonged wet weather was associated with an elevated number of AGI visits. Differences in seasonality patterns were observed between AGI visits and AGI calls, as visits were relatively less frequent during winter and relatively more frequent in August, and only weak short-term relations were found. AGI visits and AGI calls seems to partly reflect different types of AGI illnesses, and the patients' choice of medical contact (in-person visits versus phone calls) appears to depend on current weather conditions. An association between prolonged wet weather and increased AGI visits supports the hypothesis that the drinking water is related to an increased risk of AGI illnesses.

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Ahlm, Clas; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-01-01

Malaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), day Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya. The lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags. This study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

Toward a Concept of Operations for Aviation Weather Information Implementation in the Evolving National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McAdaragh, Raymon M.

2002-01-01

The capacity of the National Airspace System is being stressed due to the limits of current technologies. Because of this, the FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies to increase the system's capacity which enhancing safety. Adverse weather has been determined to be a major factor in aircraft accidents and fatalities and the FAA and NASA have developed programs to improve aviation weather information technologies and communications for system users The Aviation Weather Information Element of the Weather Accident Prevention Project of NASA's Aviation Safety Program is currently working to develop these technologies in coordination with the FAA and industry. This paper sets forth a theoretical approach to implement these new technologies while addressing the National Airspace System (NAS) as an evolving system with Weather Information as one of its subSystems. With this approach in place, system users will be able to acquire the type of weather information that is needed based upon the type of decision-making situation and condition that is encountered. The theoretical approach addressed in this paper takes the form of a model for weather information implementation. This model addresses the use of weather information in three decision-making situations, based upon the system user's operational perspective. The model also addresses two decision-making conditions, which are based upon the need for collaboration due to the level of support offered by the weather information provided by each new product or technology. The model is proposed for use in weather information implementation in order to provide a systems approach to the NAS. Enhancements to the NAS collaborative decision-making capabilities are also suggested.

Differential Bacterial Colonization of Volcanic Minerals in Deep Thermal Basalts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, A. R.; Popa, R.; Fisk, M. R.; Nielsen, M.; Wheat, G.; Jannasch, H.; Fisher, A.; Sievert, S.

2010-04-01

There are reports of microbial weathering patterns in volcanic glass and minerals of both terrestrial and Martian origin. Volcanic minerals are colonized differentially in subsurface hydrothermal environments by a variety of physiological types.

Outlet diffusers to increase culvert capacity.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

Aging infrastructure and changing weather patterns present the need to increase the capacity of existing highway culverts. This research approaches this challenge through the use of diffuser outlet systems to increase pipe capacity and reduce outlet ...

Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.

2014-12-01

GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

2014-01-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: SCUBA-2 high-redshift galaxies sample (Barger+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barger, A. J.; Cowie, L. L.; Chen, C.-C.; Owen, F. N.; Wang, W.-H.; Casey, C. M.; Lee, N.; Sanders, D. B.; Williams, J. P.

2017-05-01

We obtained 25.4 hr of observations on the CDF-N with SCUBA-2 on the JCMT during observing runs in 2012 and 2013. The data were obtained using a mixture of scanning modes and under a variety of weather conditions. Using the CV Daisy scanning mode (detailed information about the SCUBA-2 scan patterns can be found in Holland et al. 2013MNRAS.430.2513H), we obtained a 2.2 hr observation in band 1 weather (225 GHz opacity<0.05) and a 16.5 hr observation in band 2 weather (225 GHz opacity ~0.05-0.08). We also obtained a 6.7 hr observation in band 2 weather using the pong-900 scanning mode. While SCUBA-2 observes at both 450 um and 850 um simultaneously, there are too few sources directly detected at 450 um in our data to be interesting. Thus, we only use the 850 um data in our subsequent analysis. (1 data file).

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

PubMed

Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B

2011-04-01

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

A case study of the Santa Ana winds in the San Gabriel mountains

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1965-01-01

Santa Ana wind structure varies between the high main ridges, the foothills, and the canyon bottoms. In each of these regions, a typical pattern characterizes the Santa Ana. Strong steady wind, at the high levels are determined almost completely by the large scale weather patterns. lntermediate canyons and ridges are affected by Santa Ana winds only when the foehn is...

Euro-Climhist - a data platform for weather-, climate- and disaster history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Christian

2017-04-01

The Euro-Climhist data base (http://www.euroclimhist.unibe.ch/de)/ presents evidence about weather and climate in space and time mostly originating from the archives of societies. It facilitates the cross-checking of proxy data with contemporaneous high-resolution narrative weather reports. Contemporary and non-contemporary data are distinguished for quality control. The original Euro-Climhist database was established between 1992 and 1994 to investigate weather patterns in Europe during the cold period of the late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715). The present-day internet version of Euro-Climhist went online in November 2015 with the Module Switzerland. It currently provides 160'000 records from 1501 to present, available in German, French, Italian and English. The module serves as a pilot project for developing an adequate methodology and user-friendly software. Currently a module "Middle Ages" led by Christian Rohr from the Bern University is being worked out. It includes evidence for the whole of Europe prior to 1501. Further modules may be established by regional working groups. The classification scheme includes 300 categories. A complementary facility—COMP—has been also been created to permit a still more precise description of events. For example, the facility can be used to describe in detail the impacts of nature-induced hazards. Moreover, it makes possible to rate quantitative evidence such as phenological data or the frequency of rain-days at a given location according to standard criteria. The elements of COMP are translated and can be augmented to an almost unlimited extent. The data are mapped according to the administrative organization of a country and to geographical units. Results are presented in the form of text and geographical charts. The structure of Euro-Climhist may be readily adapted to amplifications in relationship to content, spatial dimension and translation into further languages. In the long term, it may be possible to release evidence on weather and climate on a large scale, in order to improve knowledge of interconnections between humans and climate.

The origin of Neoproterozoic Cap Carbonates: a view from Mg and Sr Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Raub, T. D.; Evans, D. A.; Wang, Z.

2010-12-01

Neoproterozoic cap carbonates are suggested to document Earth’s transition from a ‘snowball earth’ to an ‘extreme greenhouse’ environment. Geochemistry of these rocks is essential for its paleo-environment reconstruction, and Mg and Sr isotopes can help to understand its origin and constrain geochemical evolution of the contemporary ocean. In this study, we studied Mg and Sr isotope composition of 18 cap dolostone samples from Nuccaleena formation carbonate and one from the the mixed siliciclastic transition at its base at Elatina Creek in Adelaide Geosyncline of South Australia. We established a step-leaching procedure using ammonium acetate, various concentrations of acetic acid, and HCl on four of these cap carbonate samples to untangle the isotopic signatures of its various constituent phases. 87Sr/86Sr values of the leachates in each sample decrease continuously as leaching process proceeds and sometimes rebound as silicates are dissolved. The lowest leachate 87Sr/86Sr values, down to 0.7084, are lower than the reported dolostone(~0.7096) but still higher than those of limestones overlying the dolostone in other basins(~0.7079), indicating an input of increasing level of weathering to the ocean over the course of cap-carbonate precipitation. In contrast, δ26MgDSM3 variation with progressing leaching steps exhibits a wave pattern (variation up to 0.4~0.5‰) during the leaching processes, due to different chemical affinity of Mg in various mineral phases. More importantly, Mg isotope composition of the portion that is associated with stratigraphically low, minimum Sr isotope composition is similar to those of contemporary corals (or inorganic aragonite precipitation), but up to ca. 0.6 per mil lower than stratigraphically-higher values, suggesting a warmer weather and/or more significant silicate weathering than contemporary Earth’s climate, and a transition from physical weathering to chemical weather during deglaciation.

Application of Lidar and other profiling techniques to study the impact that Severe weather hazards have on the New York City built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arend, Mark; Campmier, Mark; Fernandez, Aris; Moshary, Fred

2018-04-01

The complexity of urban boundary layer dynamics poses challenges to those responsible for the design and regulation of buildings and structures in the urban environment. Lidar systems in the New York City Metropolitan region have been used extensively to study urban boundary layer dynamics. These systems, in conjunction with other sensing platforms can provide an observatory to perform research and analysis of turbulent and inclement weather patterns of interest to developers and agencies.

Subsurface Salts in Antarctic Dry Valley Soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Englert, P.; Bishop, J. L.; Gibson, E. K.; Koeberl, C.

2013-01-01

The distribution of water-soluble ions, major and minor elements, and other parameters were examined to determine the extent and effects of chemical weathering on cold desert soils. Patterns at the study sites support theories of multiple salt forming processes, including marine aerosols and chemical weathering of mafic minerals. Periodic solar-mediated ionization of atmospheric nitrogen might also produce high nitrate concentrations found in older sediments. Chemical weathering, however, was the major contributor of salts in Antarctic Dry Valleys. The Antarctic Dry Valleys represent a unique analog for Mars, as they are extremely cold and dry desert environments. Similarities in the climate, surface geology, and chemical properties of the Dry Valleys to that of Mars imply the possible presence of these soil formation mechanisms on Mars, other planets and icy satellites.

Strategies for Effective Implementation of Science Models into 6-9 Grade Classrooms on Climate, Weather, and Energy Topics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

2011-12-01

As atmospheric scientists, we depend on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. We use them to predict weather patterns, to understand external forcing on the atmosphere, and as evidence to make claims about atmospheric phenomenon. Therefore, it is important that we adequately prepare atmospheric science students to use computer models. However, the public should also be aware of what models are in order to understand scientific claims about atmospheric issues, such as climate change. Although familiar with weather forecasts on television and the Internet, the general public does not understand the process of using computer models to generate a weather and climate forecasts. As a result, the public often misunderstands claims scientists make about their daily weather as well as the state of climate change. Since computer models are the best method we have to forecast the future of our climate, scientific models and modeling should be a topic covered in K-12 classrooms as part of a comprehensive science curriculum. According to the National Science Education Standards, teachers are encouraged to science models into the classroom as a way to aid in the understanding of the nature of science. However, there is very little description of what constitutes a science model, so the term is often associated with scale models. Therefore, teachers often use drawings or scale representations of physical entities, such as DNA, the solar system, or bacteria. In other words, models used in classrooms are often used as visual representations, but the purpose of science models is often overlooked. The implementation of a model-based curriculum in the science classroom can be an effective way to prepare students to think critically, problem solve, and make informed decisions as a contributing member of society. However, there are few resources available to help teachers implement science models into the science curriculum effectively. Therefore, this research project looks at strategies middle school science teachers use to implement science models into their classrooms. These teachers in this study took part in a week-long professional development designed to orient them towards appropriate use of science models for a unit on weather, climate, and energy concepts. The goal of this project is to describe the professional development and describe how teachers intend to incorporate science models into each of their individual classrooms.

An end-to-end assessment of extreme weather impacts on food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, Erik; Conway, Gordon; Ghil, Michael; Sadler, Marc

2015-11-01

Both governments and the private sector urgently require better estimates of the likely incidence of extreme weather events, their impacts on food crop production and the potential consequent social and economic losses. Current assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture mostly focus on average crop yield vulnerability to climate and adaptation scenarios. Also, although new-generation climate models have improved and there has been an exponential increase in available data, the uncertainties in their projections over years and decades, and at regional and local scale, have not decreased. We need to understand and quantify the non-stationary, annual and decadal climate impacts using simple and communicable risk metrics that will help public and private stakeholders manage the hazards to food security. Here we present an `end-to-end’ methodological construct based on weather indices and machine learning that integrates current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, crops and the economy to determine short- to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different climate and adaptation scenarios. For provinces north and south of the Yangtze River in China, we have found that risk profiles for crop yields that translate climate into economic variability follow marked regional patterns, shaped by drivers of continental-scale climate. We conclude that to be cost-effective, region-specific policies have to be tailored to optimally combine different categories of risk management instruments.

The development of a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX) to model climate-water clarity relationships: reconstructing a historical water clarity index for the coastal waters of the southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cameron C.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Barnes, Brian B.; Hu, Chuanmin; Pirhalla, Douglas E.; Ransibrahmanakul, Varis; Shein, Karsten

2017-10-01

The coastal waters of the southeastern USA contain important protected habitats and natural resources that are vulnerable to climate variability and singular weather events. Water clarity, strongly affected by atmospheric events, is linked to substantial environmental impacts throughout the region. To assess this relationship over the long-term, this study uses an artificial neural network-based time series modeling technique known as non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous input (NARX models) to explore the relationship between climate and a water clarity index (KDI) in this area and to reconstruct this index over a 66-year period. Results show that synoptic-scale circulation patterns, weather types, and precipitation all play roles in impacting water clarity to varying degrees in each region of the larger domain. In particular, turbid water is associated with transitional weather and cyclonic circulation in much of the study region. Overall, NARX model performance also varies—regionally, seasonally and interannually—with wintertime estimates of KDI along the West Florida Shelf correlating to the actual KDI at r > 0.70. Periods of extreme (high) KDI in this area coincide with notable El Niño events. An upward trend in extreme KDI events from 1948 to 2013 is also present across much of the Florida Gulf coast.

Weather Information Processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

Dynamical complexity detection in geomagnetic activity indices using wavelet transforms and Tsallis entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, G.; Daglis, I. A.; Papadimitriou, C.; Kalimeri, M.; Anastasiadis, A.; Eftaxias, K.

2008-12-01

Dynamical complexity detection for output time series of complex systems is one of the foremost problems in physics, biology, engineering, and economic sciences. Especially in magnetospheric physics, accurate detection of the dissimilarity between normal and abnormal states (e.g. pre-storm activity and magnetic storms) can vastly improve space weather diagnosis and, consequently, the mitigation of space weather hazards. Herein, we examine the fractal spectral properties of the Dst data using a wavelet analysis technique. We show that distinct changes in associated scaling parameters occur (i.e., transition from anti- persistent to persistent behavior) as an intense magnetic storm approaches. We then analyze Dst time series by introducing the non-extensive Tsallis entropy, Sq, as an appropriate complexity measure. The Tsallis entropy sensitively shows the complexity dissimilarity among different "physiological" (normal) and "pathological" states (intense magnetic storms). The Tsallis entropy implies the emergence of two distinct patterns: (i) a pattern associated with the intense magnetic storms, which is characterized by a higher degree of organization, and (ii) a pattern associated with normal periods, which is characterized by a lower degree of organization.

Estimating the Exceedance Probability of the Reservoir Inflow Based on the Long-Term Weather Outlooks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q. Z.; Hsu, S. Y.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The long-term streamflow prediction is important not only to estimate water-storage of a reservoir but also to the surface water intakes, which supply people's livelihood, agriculture, and industry. Climatology forecasts of streamflow have been traditionally used for calculating the exceedance probability curve of streamflow and water resource management. In this study, we proposed a stochastic approach to predict the exceedance probability curve of long-term streamflow with the seasonal weather outlook from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taiwan. The approach incorporates a statistical downscale weather generator and a catchment-scale hydrological model to convert the monthly outlook into daily rainfall and temperature series and to simulate the streamflow based on the outlook information. Moreover, we applied Bayes' theorem to derive a method for calculating the exceedance probability curve of the reservoir inflow based on the seasonal weather outlook and its imperfection. The results show that our approach can give the exceedance probability curves reflecting the three-month weather outlook and its accuracy. We also show how the improvement of the weather outlook affects the predicted exceedance probability curves of the streamflow. Our approach should be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resource and their risk assessment.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Colorado Floods in September 2013.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.

2015-12-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during the second week of September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern tropical Pacific towards the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. A recent study using observational-based re-analysis to drive the regional WRF model finds that, given very little change in the large-scale weather pattern, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour over northeast Colorado under anthropogenic climate warming, with a positive dynamical feedback drawing in moisture from further afield. This leads to a substantial increase in the magnitude and odds of heavy rainfall occurring over northeast Colorado during the rainy week of September 2013. Here we develop this work by including a hydrological modelling component in order to investigate any anthropogenic influence on the actual flood magnitude and occurrence across the South Platte basin during that time. We use WRF precipitation output from the aforementioned study - in both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic configurations for September 2013 - to drive the recently developed high-resolution WRF-Hydro model over the basin and generate river runoff. Thus by comparing changes in runoff under the anthropogenic / non-anthropogenic driving conditions we assess any influence on the magnitude and odds of flood occurrence. Integral to this, we test the sensitivity of our results to hydrological parameters, such as infiltration, base flow, and land use/cover.

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission.

PubMed

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-09-06

Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.

CALIOP-based Biomass Burning Smoke Plume Injection Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Choi, H. D.; Fairlie, T. D.; Pouliot, G.; Baker, K. R.; Winker, D. M.; Trepte, C. R.; Szykman, J.

2017-12-01

Carbon and aerosols are cycled between terrestrial and atmosphere environments during fire events, and these emissions have strong feedbacks to near-field weather, air quality, and longer-term climate systems. Fire severity and burned area are under the control of weather and climate, and fire emissions have the potential to alter numerous land and atmospheric processes that, in turn, feedback to and interact with climate systems (e.g., changes in patterns of precipitation, black/brown carbon deposition on ice/snow, alteration in landscape and atmospheric/cloud albedo). If plume injection height is incorrectly estimated, then the transport and deposition of those emissions will also be incorrect. The heights to which smoke is injected governs short- or long-range transport, which influences surface pollution, cloud interaction (altered albedo), and modifies patterns of precipitation (cloud condensation nuclei). We are working with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) science team and other stakeholder agencies, primarily the Environmental Protection Agency and regional partners, to generate a biomass burning (BB) plume injection height database using multiple platforms, sensors and models (CALIOP, MODIS, NOAA HMS, Langley Trajectory Model). These data have the capacity to provide enhanced smoke plume injection height parameterization in regional, national and international scientific and air quality models. Statistics that link fire behavior and weather to plume rise are crucial for verifying and enhancing plume rise parameterization in local-, regional- and global-scale models used for air quality, chemical transport and climate. Specifically, we will present: (1) a methodology that links BB injection height and CALIOP air parcels to specific fires; (2) the daily evolution of smoke plumes for specific fires; (3) plumes transport and deposited on the Greenland Ice Sheet; and (4) compare CALIOP-derived smoke plume injection to CMAQ modeled smoke plume injection. These results have the potential to provide value to national and international modeling communities (scientific and air quality) and to public land, fire, and air quality management and regulations communities.

NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

Three Dimensional Spherical Display Systems and McIDAS: Tools for Science, Education and Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohrs, R.; Mooney, M. E.

2010-12-01

The Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) and Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin are now using a 3D spherical display system and their Man computer Data Access System (McIDAS)-X and McIDAS-V as outreach tools to demonstrate how scientists and forecasters utilize satellite imagery to monitor weather and climate. Our outreach program displays orbits and data coverage of geostationary and polar satellites and demonstrates how each is beneficial for the remote sensing of Earth. Global composites of visible, infrared and water vapor images illustrate how satellite instruments collect data from different bands of the electromagnetic spectrum to monitor global weather patterns 24 hours a day. Captivating animations on spherical display systems are proving to be much more intuitive than traditional 2D displays, enabling audiences to view satellites orbiting above real-time weather systems circulating the entire globe. Complimenting the 3D spherical display system are the UNIX-based McIDAS-X and Java-based McIDAS-V software packages. McIDAS is used to composite the real-time global satellite data and create other weather related derived products. Client and server techniques used by these software packages provide the opportunity to continually update the real-time content on our globe. The enhanced functionality of McIDAS-V extends our outreach program by allowing in-depth interactive 4-dimensional views of the imagery previously viewed on the 3D spherical display system. An important goal of our outreach program is the promotion of remote sensing research and technology at SSEC and CIMSS. The 3D spherical display system has quickly become a popular tool to convey societal benefits of these endeavors. Audiences of all ages instinctively relate to recent weather events which keeps them engaged in spherical display presentations. McIDAS facilitates further exploration of the science behind the weather phenomena. Audience feedback fuels the collaborative efforts of outreach specialists and computer programmers which provides continuous evolution of the 3D displays and McIDAS. This iterative presentation strategy is proving to be beneficial to our outreach program as seen by the success of our workshops, educational lectures and temporary exhibits at high visibility venues such as Madison Children’s Museum, the Milwaukee Public Museum and EAA AirVenture Museum. 3D Spherical Display System and McIDAS-V depiction of Hurricane Wilma

The Future of Operational Space Weather Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2015-12-01

We review the current state of operational space weather observations, the requirements for new or evolved space weather forecasting capablities, and the relevant sections of the new National strategy for space weather developed by the Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force chartered by the Office of Science and Technology Policy of the White House. Based on this foundation, we discuss future space missions such as the NOAA space weather mission to the L1 Lagrangian point planned for the 2021 time frame and its synergy with an L5 mission planned for the same period; the space weather capabilities of the upcoming GOES-R mission, as well as GOES-Next possiblities; and the upcoming COSMIC-2 mission for ionospheric observations. We also discuss the needs for ground-based operational networks to supply mission critical and/or backup space weather observations including the NSF GONG solar optical observing network, the USAF SEON solar radio observing network, the USGS real-time magnetometer network, the USCG CORS network of GPS receivers, and the possibility of operationalizing the world-wide network of neutron monitors for real-time alerts of ground-level radiation events.

Variation of rain intensity and drop size distribution with General Weather Patterns (GWL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghada, Wael; Buras, Allan; Lüpke, Marvin; Menzel, Annette

2017-04-01

Short-duration rainfall extremes may cause flash floods in certain catchments (e.g. cities or fast responding watersheds) and pose a great risk to affected communities. In order to predict their occurrence under future climate change scenarios, their link to atmospheric circulation patterns needs to be well understood. We used a comprehensive data set of meteorological data (temperature, rain gauge precipitation) and precipitation spectra measured by a disdrometer (OTT PARSIVEL) between October 2008 and June 2010 at Freising, southern Germany. For the 21 months of the study period, we integrated the disdrometer spectra over intervals of 10 minutes to correspond to the temporal resolution of the weather station data and discarded measurements with air temperatures below 0°C. Daily General Weather Patterns ("Großwetterlagen", GWL) were downloaded from the website of the German Meteorological Service. Out of the 29 GWL, 14 were included in the analysis for which we had at least 12 rain events during our study period. For the definition of a rain event, we tested different lengths of minimum inter-event times and chose 30 min as a good compromise between number and length of resulting events; rain events started when more than 0.001 mm/h (sensitivity of the disdrometer) were recorded. The length of the rain events ranged between 10 min and 28 h (median 130 min) with the maximum rain intensity recorded being 134 mm/h on 24-07-2009. Seasonal differences were identified for rain event average intensities and maximum intensities per event. The influence of GWL on rain properties such as rain intensity and drop size distribution per time step and per event was investigated based on the above mentioned rain event definition. Pairwise Wilcoxon-tests revealed that higher rain intensity and larger drops were associated with the GWL "Low over the British Isles" (TB), whereas low rain intensities and less drops per interval were associated with the GWL "High over Central Europe" (HM). "Trough over Central Europe" (TRM) was linked to smaller drops and "High Scandinavia-Iceland, Trough C. Europe" (HNFZ) had fewer drops per time step when compared to other GWL types. We also investigated the intra-event behavior regarding fluctuations in rain intensity, rain drop counts, and drop size distribution with time. When combined with predictions of circulation patterns, our analysis provides a detailed insight into the characteristics of rain events under different future climate scenarios, but definitively an extended measurement period and more measurement locations are needed for validation.

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, Mark; Boisvert, Ben; Escala, Diego

2009-01-01

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Research on Application of Automatic Weather Station Based on Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianyun, Chen; Yunfan, Sun; Chunyan, Lin

2017-12-01

In this paper, the Internet of Things is briefly introduced, and then its application in the weather station is studied. A method of data acquisition and transmission based on NB-iot communication mode is proposed, Introduction of Internet of things technology, Sensor digital and independent power supply as the technical basis, In the construction of Automatic To realize the intelligent interconnection of the automatic weather station, and then to form an automatic weather station based on the Internet of things. A network structure of automatic weather station based on Internet of things technology is constructed to realize the independent operation of intelligent sensors and wireless data transmission. Research on networking data collection and dissemination of meteorological data, through the data platform for data analysis, the preliminary work of meteorological information publishing standards, networking of meteorological information receiving terminal provides the data interface, to the wisdom of the city, the wisdom of the purpose of the meteorological service.

Disentangling oil weathering using GC x GC. 1. chromatogram analysis.

PubMed

Arey, J Samuel; Nelson, Robert K; Reddy, Christopher M

2007-08-15

Historically, the thousands of compounds found in oils constituted an "unresolved complex mixture" that frustrated efforts to analyze oil weathering. Moreover, different weathering processes inflict rich and diverse signatures of compositional change in oil, and conventional methods do not effectively decode this elaborate record. Using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC x GC), we can separate thousands of hydrocarbon components and simultaneously estimate their chemical properties. We investigated 13 weathered field samples collected from the Bouchard 120 heavy fuel oil spill in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts in 2003. We first mapped hydrocarbon vapor pressures and aqueous solubilities onto the compositional space explored by GC x GC chromatograms of weathered samples. Then we developed methods to quantitatively decouple mass loss patterns associated with evaporation and dissolution. The compositional complexity of oil, traditionally considered an obstacle, was now an advantage. We exploited the large inventory of chemical information encoded in oil to robustly differentiate signatures of mass transfer to air and water. With this new approach, we can evaluate mass transfer models (the Part 2 companion to this paper) and more properly account for evaporation, dissolution, and degradation of oil in the environment.

A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects.

PubMed

Njuki, Eric; Bravo-Ureta, Boris E; O'Donnell, Christopher J

2018-01-01

Random fluctuations in temperature and precipitation have substantial impacts on agricultural output. However, the contribution of these changing configurations in weather to total factor productivity (TFP) growth has not been addressed explicitly in econometric analyses. Thus, the key objective of this study is to quantify and to investigate the role of changing weather patterns in explaining yearly fluctuations in TFP. For this purpose, we define TFP to be a measure of total output divided by a measure of total input. We estimate a stochastic production frontier model using U.S. state-level agricultural data incorporating growing season temperature and precipitation, and intra-annual standard deviations of temperature and precipitation for the period 1960-2004. We use the estimated parameters of the model to compute a TFP index that has good axiomatic properties. We then decompose TFP growth in each state into weather effects, technological progress, technical efficiency, and scale-mix efficiency changes. This approach improves our understanding of the role of different components of TFP in agricultural productivity growth. We find that annual TFP growth averaged 1.56% between 1960 and 2004. Moreover, we observe substantial heterogeneity in weather effects across states and over time.

A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects

PubMed Central

Bravo-Ureta, Boris E.; O’Donnell, Christopher J.

2018-01-01

Random fluctuations in temperature and precipitation have substantial impacts on agricultural output. However, the contribution of these changing configurations in weather to total factor productivity (TFP) growth has not been addressed explicitly in econometric analyses. Thus, the key objective of this study is to quantify and to investigate the role of changing weather patterns in explaining yearly fluctuations in TFP. For this purpose, we define TFP to be a measure of total output divided by a measure of total input. We estimate a stochastic production frontier model using U.S. state-level agricultural data incorporating growing season temperature and precipitation, and intra-annual standard deviations of temperature and precipitation for the period 1960–2004. We use the estimated parameters of the model to compute a TFP index that has good axiomatic properties. We then decompose TFP growth in each state into weather effects, technological progress, technical efficiency, and scale-mix efficiency changes. This approach improves our understanding of the role of different components of TFP in agricultural productivity growth. We find that annual TFP growth averaged 1.56% between 1960 and 2004. Moreover, we observe substantial heterogeneity in weather effects across states and over time. PMID:29466461

Infection patterns of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) by two helminth species with contrasting life styles.

PubMed

Akoll, Peter; Konecny, Robert; Mwanja, Wilson W; Schiemer, Fritz

2012-04-01

The larval stages of Bolbophorus sp. (digenean) and Amirthalingamia macracantha (cestode) are frequently reported in Oreochromis niloticus in Uganda. Little, however, is known about their infection patterns. This study examined the influence of habitat type, host size, and sex and weather patterns on the parasite populations in Uganda. A total of 650 fish were collected between January and November 2008 from a reservoir, cages, fishponds and a stream. The prevalence and intensity of A. macracantha and the prevalence of Bolbophorus sp. differed across the water bodies reflecting the effect of habitat characteristics on parasite transmission. Host sex did not significantly influence the infection patterns, although female fish were slightly more parasitized than male and sexually undifferentiated individuals. The fish size was positively correlated with helminth infections demonstrating accumulation and prolonged exposure of larger (older) fish to the parasites. The metacercariae population did not vary significantly across months, while monthly A. macracantha infection fluctuated markedly. With regard to rain seasons, higher prevalence and intensity of A. macracantha were recorded in wet season. For Bolbophorus sp., only the prevalence varied with seasons, with higher prevalence recorded in the dry season than in wet season. Generally, Bolbophorus sp. responded weakly to changes in water body, host sex and size and weather patterns. Rainfall appears to be an essential cue for coracidia hatching.

Parametric vs. non-parametric daily weather generator: validation and comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, Martin

2016-04-01

As the climate models (GCMs and RCMs) fail to satisfactorily reproduce the real-world surface weather regime, various statistical methods are applied to downscale GCM/RCM outputs into site-specific weather series. The stochastic weather generators are among the most favourite downscaling methods capable to produce realistic (observed like) meteorological inputs for agrological, hydrological and other impact models used in assessing sensitivity of various ecosystems to climate change/variability. To name their advantages, the generators may (i) produce arbitrarily long multi-variate synthetic weather series representing both present and changed climates (in the latter case, the generators are commonly modified by GCM/RCM-based climate change scenarios), (ii) be run in various time steps and for multiple weather variables (the generators reproduce the correlations among variables), (iii) be interpolated (and run also for sites where no weather data are available to calibrate the generator). This contribution will compare two stochastic daily weather generators in terms of their ability to reproduce various features of the daily weather series. M&Rfi is a parametric generator: Markov chain model is used to model precipitation occurrence, precipitation amount is modelled by the Gamma distribution, and the 1st order autoregressive model is used to generate non-precipitation surface weather variables. The non-parametric GoMeZ generator is based on the nearest neighbours resampling technique making no assumption on the distribution of the variables being generated. Various settings of both weather generators will be assumed in the present validation tests. The generators will be validated in terms of (a) extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics (annual and 30 years extremes and maxima of duration of hot/cold/dry/wet spells); (b) selected validation statistics developed within the frame of VALUE project. The tests will be based on observational weather series from several European stations available from the ECA&D database.