Building resilience to weather-related hazards through better preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Julia; Golding, Brian; Johnston, David; Ruti, Paolo

2017-04-01

Recent developments in weather forecasting have transformed our ability to predict weather-related hazards, while mobile communication is radically changing the way that people receive information. At the same time, vulnerability to weather-related hazards is growing through urban expansion, population growth and climate change. This talk will address issues facing the science community in responding to the Sendai Framework objective to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems" in the context of weather-related hazards. It will also provide an overview of activities and approaches developed in the World Meteorological Organisation's High Impact Weather (HIWeather) project. HIWeather has identified and is promoting research in key multi-disciplinary gaps in our knowledge, including in basic meteorology, risk prediction, communication and decision making, that affect our ability to provide effective warnings. The results will be pulled together in demonstration projects that will both showcase leading edge capability and build developing country capacity.

National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

MedlinePlus

... Education & Outreach About the SPC SPC FAQ About Tornadoes About Derechos Video Lecture Series WCM Page Enh. ... Convective/Tropical Weather Flooding Winter Weather Non-Precipitation Tornado Watch Tornado Warning* Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm ...

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

PubMed Central

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

PubMed

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

PubMed

Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

2017-12-01

Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

From Forecasters to the General Public: A Communication Tool to Understand Decision-making Challenges in Weather-related Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terti, G.; Ruin, I.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Sabbatini, T.; i Alonso, A. C.

2017-12-01

New technologies are currently adopted worldwide to improve weather forecasts and communication of the corresponding warnings to the end-users. "EnhANcing emergency management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events" (ANYWHERE) project is an innovating action that aims at developing and implementing a European decision-support platform for weather-related risks integrating cutting-edge forecasting technology. The initiative is built in a collaborative manner where researchers, developers, potential users and other stakeholders meet frequently to define needs, capabilities and challenges. In this study, we propose a role-playing game to test the added value of the ANYWHERE platform on i) the decision-making process and the choice of warning levels under uncertainty, ii) the management of the official emergency response and iii) the crisis communication and triggering of protective actions at different levels of the warning system (from hazard detection to citizen response). The designed game serves as an interactive communication tool. Here, flood and flash flood focused simulations seek to enhance participant's understanding of the complexities and challenges embedded in various levels of the decision-making process under the threat of weather disasters (e.g., forecasting/warnings, official emergency actions, self-protection). Also, we facilitate collaboration and coordination between the participants who belong to different national or local agencies/authorities across Europe. The game is first applied and tested in ANYWHERE's workshop in Helsinki (September, 2017) where about 30-50 people, including researchers, forecasters, civil protection and representatives of related companies, are anticipated to play the simulation. The main idea is to provide to the players a virtual case study that well represents realistic uncertainties and dilemmas embedded in the real-time forecasting-warning processes. At the final debriefing step the participants are encouraged to exchange knowledge, thoughts and insights on their capability or difficulty to decide and communicate their action based on the available information and given constrains. Such feedback will be analyzed and presented and future potentialities for the application of the game will be discussed.

Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,

1993-01-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.

Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

2010-09-01

One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall predicted by Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5), the SMC forecast operational model, is compared with the local rain gauge network for year 2008 (Comellas et al., 2010). This study presents benefits and drawbacks of both Italian and Catalonian systems. Moreover, a particular attention is paid on the link between system's predictive ability and the predicted severe weather type as a function of its space-time development.

Trusted Spotter Network Austria - a new standard to utilize crowdsourced weather and impact observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Pistotnik, Georg; Holzer, Alois M.; Zeiler, Franz; Stampfl, Mathias

2018-05-01

Information from voluntary storm spotters has been an increasingly important part for the severe weather warning process at the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie and Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria's National Weather Service, for almost 15 years. In 2010 a collaboration was formalized and an annual training was established to educate voluntary observers into Trusted Spotters. The return of this investment is a higher credibility of their observations after these spotters have undergone a basic meteorological training and have become aware of their responsibility. The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) was included to this collaboration to adopt their successful quality control system of severe weather reports, which is employed in the European Severe Weather Database ESWD. That way, reports from Trusted Spotters automatically obtain a higher quality flag, which enables a faster processing by forecasters on duty for severe weather warnings, when time is a critical issue. The concept of combining training for voluntary storm spotters and a thorough quality management was recognized as a Best Practice Model by the European Meteorological Society. We propose to apply this concept also in other European countries and present its advancement into an even broader, pan-European approach. The European Weather Observer app EWOB, recently released by ESSL, provides a novel and easy-to-handle tool to submit weather and respective impact observations. We promote its use to provide better data and information for a further real-time improvement of severe weather warnings.

The social impacts of the heat-health watch/warning system in Phoenix, Arizona: assessing the perceived risk and response of the public.

PubMed

Kalkstein, Adam J; Sheridan, Scott C

2007-10-01

Heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States. Although previous research suggests that social influences affect human responses to natural disaster warnings, no studies have examined the social impacts of heat or heat warnings on a population. Here, 201 surveys were distributed in Metropolitan Phoenix to determine the social impacts of the heat warning system, or more specifically, to gauge risk perception and warning response. Consistent with previous research, increased risk perception of heat results in increased response to a warning. Different social factors such as sex, race, age, and income all play an important role in determining whether or not people will respond to a warning. In particular, there is a strong sense of perceived risk to the heat among Hispanics which translates to increased response when heat warnings are issued. Based on these findings, suggestions are presented to help improve the Phoenix Heat Warning System.

Weather Information Processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

Development of Algorithms and Error Analyses for the Short Baseline Lightning Detection and Ranging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, Stanley O.

1998-01-01

NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high-precision lightning location system to provide lightning-related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning- sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations (45th Weather Squadron, U.S. Air Force) where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 megahertz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. This document provides the basis for the design approach and data analysis for a system of radio frequency receivers to provide azimuth and elevation data for lightning pulses detected simultaneously by the LDAR system. The intent is for this direction-finding system to correct and augment the data provided by LDAR and, thereby, increase the rate of valid data and to correct or discard any invalid data. This document develops the necessary equations and algorithms, identifies sources of systematic errors and means to correct them, and analyzes the algorithms for random error. This data analysis approach is not found in the existing literature and was developed to facilitate the operation of this Short Baseline LDAR (SBLDAR). These algorithms may also be useful for other direction-finding systems using radio pulses or ultrasonic pulse data.

Coastal Warning Display Program

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts COASTAL WARNING DISPLAY PROGRAM Marine COASTAL WARNING DISPLAY PROGRAM As of February 15, 1989, the National Weather Service retired its Coastal

Probabilistic flood warning using grand ensemble weather forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wilson, M.; Freer, J.; McGregor, G.

2009-04-01

As the severity of floods increases, possibly due to climate and landuse change, there is urgent need for more effective and reliable warning systems. The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. An ensemble of weather forecasts from one Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), when used on catchment hydrology, can provide improved early flood warning as some of the uncertainties can be quantified. EPS forecasts from a single weather centre only account for part of the uncertainties originating from initial conditions and stochastic physics. Other sources of uncertainties, including numerical implementations and/or data assimilation, can only be assessed if a grand ensemble of EPSs from different weather centres is used. When various models that produce EPS from different weather centres are aggregated, the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts can be better retained and accounted for. The availability of twelve global EPSs through the 'THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the design of an improved probabilistic flood forecasting framework. This work presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment. The upper reach of the River Severn catchment located in the Midlands Region of England is selected due to its abundant data for investigation and its relatively small size (4062 km2) (compared to the resolution of the NWPs). This choice was deliberate as we hypothesize that the uncertainty in the forcing of smaller catchments cannot be represented by a single EPS with a very limited number of ensemble members, but only through the variance given by a large number ensembles and ensemble system. A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts is set up to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database in early flood warning. Physically based and fully distributed LISFLOOD suite of models is selected to simulate discharge and flood inundation consecutively. The results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to produce forecasts of discharge and flood inundation comparable with the observed discharge and simulated inundation driven by the observed discharge. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large, implying a significant level of uncertainties. Precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial variability of precipitation on a comparatively small catchment. This perhaps indicates the need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregation techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. It is not necessarily true that early flood warning becomes more reliable when more ensemble forecasts are employed. It is difficult to identify the best forecast centre(s), but in general the chance of detecting floods is increased by using the TIGGE database. Only one flood event was studied because most of the TIGGE data became available after October 2007. It is necessary to test the TIGGE ensemble forecasts with other flood events in other catchments with different hydrological and climatic regimes before general conclusions can be made on its robustness and applicability.

General-aviation's view of progress in the aviation weather system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundgren, Douglas J.

1988-01-01

For all its activity statistics, general-aviation is the most vulnerable to hazardous weather. Of concern to the general aviation industry are: (1) the slow pace of getting units of the Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS) to the field; (2) the efforts of the National Weather Service to withdraw from both the observation and dissemination roles of the aviation weather system; (3) the need for more observation points to improve the accuracy of terminal and area forecasts; (4) the need for improvements in all area forecasts, terminal forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts; (5) slow progress in cockpit weather displays; (6) the erosion of transcribed weather broadcasts (TWEB) and other deficiencies in weather information dissemination; (7) the need to push to make the Direct User Access Terminal (DUAT) a reality; and (7) the need to improve severe weather (thunderstorm) warning systems.

Italian codified hashtags for weather warning on Twitter - who is really using them?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, Valentina; Crisci, Alfonso; Morabito, Marco; Nesi, Paolo; Pantaleo, Gianni; Zaza, Imad; Gozzini, Bernardo

2017-04-01

During emergencies, an increasing number of messages are shared through social media platforms, becoming a primary source of information for lay people and emergency managers. Weather services and institutions have started to employ social media to deliver weather warnings even if sometimes this communication lacks in strategy. In Twitter, for example, hashtagging is very important to associate messages with certain topics; in recent years, codified hashtagging is emerging as a practical way to coordinate Twitter conversations during emergencies and quickly retrieve relevant information. In 2014, a syntax for codified hashtags for weather warning was proposed in Italy: a list of 20 hashtags, realized by combining #allertameteo (weather warning) + XXX, where final letters code the regional identification. This contribution presents a monitoring of Twitter usage of weather warning codified hashtags in Italy (since July 2015) and an analysis of different contexts. Twitter messages were retrieved using TwitterVigilance, a multi-users platform to crawl Twitter data, collect and store messages and perform quantitative analytics, about users, hashtags, tweets/retweets volumes. The Codified Hashtags data set is presented and discussed with main analytics and evaluation of regional contexts where it was successfully employed.

The relevance and legibility of radio/TV weather reports to the Austrian public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keul, A. G.; Holzer, A. M.

2013-03-01

The communicative quality of media weather reports, especially warnings, can be evaluated by user research. It is an interdisciplinary field, still uncoordinated after 35 years. The authors suggest to shift from a cognitive learning model to news processing, qualitative discourse and usability models as the media audience is in an edutainment situation where it acts highly selective. A series of field surveys 2008-2011 tested the relevance and legibility of Austrian radio and television weather reports on fair weather and in warning situations. 247 laypeople heard/saw original, mostly up-to-date radio/TV weather reports and recalled personally relevant data. Also, a questionnaire on weather knowledge was answered by 237 Austrians. Several research hypotheses were tested. The main results were (a) a relatively high level of meteorological knowledge of the general population, with interest and participation of German-speaking migrants, (b) a pluralistic media usage with TV, radio and internet as the leading media, (c) higher interest and attention (also for local weather) after warnings, but a risk of more false recalls after long warnings, (d) more recall problems with radio messages and a wish that the weather elements should always appear in the same order to faciliate processing for the audience. In their narrow time windows, radio/TV weather reports should concentrate on main features (synoptic situation, tomorrow's temperature and precipitation, possible warnings), keep a verbal “speed limit” and restrict show elements to serve the active, selective, multioptional, multicultural audience.

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for Total Lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Koshak, W.; Buechler, D.; Carey, L.; Chronis, T.; Mach, D.; Bateman, M.; Peterson, H.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.;

Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings at Raleigh, North Carolina.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoium, Debra K.; Riordan, Allen J.; Monahan, John; Keeter, Kermit K.

1997-11-01

The National Weather Service issues public warnings for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes when these storms appear imminent. A study of the warning process was conducted at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Raleigh, North Carolina, from 1994 through 1996. The purpose of the study was to examine the decision process by documenting the types of information leading to decisions to warn or not to warn and by describing the sequence and timing of events in the development of warnings. It was found that the evolution of warnings followed a logical sequence beginning with storm monitoring and proceeding with increasingly focused activity. For simplicity, information input to the process was categorized as one of three types: ground truth, radar reflectivity, or radar velocity.Reflectivity, velocity, and ground truth were all equally likely to initiate the investigation process. This investigation took an average of 7 min, after which either a decision was made not to warn or new information triggered the warning. Decisions not to issue warnings were based more on ground truth and reflectivity than radar velocity products. Warnings with investigations of more than 2 min were more likely to be triggered by radar reflectivity, than by velocity or ground truth. Warnings with a shorter investigation time, defined here as "immediate trigger warnings," were less frequently based on velocity products and more on ground truth information. Once the decision was made to warn, it took an average of 2.1 min to prepare the warning text. In 85% of cases when warnings were issued, at least one contact was made to emergency management officials or storm spotters in the warned county. Reports of severe weather were usually received soon after the warning was transmitted-almost half of these within 30 min after issue. A total of 68% were received during the severe weather episode, but some of these storm reports later proved false according to Storm Data.Even though the WSR-88D is a sophisticated tool, ground truth information was found to be a vital part of the warning process. However, the data did not indicate that population density was statistically correlated either with the number of warnings issued or the verification rate.

False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

PubMed

Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

2015-01-01

Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Weather warnings predict fall-related injuries among older adults.

PubMed

Mondor, Luke; Charland, Katia; Verma, Aman; Buckeridge, David L

2015-05-01

weather predictions are a useful tool for informing public health planning and prevention strategies for non-injury health outcomes, but the association between winter weather warnings and fall-related injuries has not been assessed previously. to examine the association between fall-related injuries among older adults and government-issued winter weather warnings. using a dynamic cohort of individuals ≥65 years of age who lived in Montreal between 1998 and 2006, we identified all fall-related injuries from administrative data using a validated set of diagnostic and procedure codes. We compared rates of injuries on days with freezing rain or snowstorm warnings to rates observed on days without warnings. We also compared the incidence of injuries on winter days to non-winter days. All analyses were performed overall and stratified by age and sex. freezing rain alerts were associated with an increase in fall-related injuries (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.32), particularly among males (IRR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.56), and lower rates of injuries were associated with snowstorm alerts (IRR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). The rate of fall-related injuries did not differ seasonally (IRR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97-1.03). official weather warnings are predictive of increases in fall-related injuries among older adults. Public health agencies should consider using these warnings to trigger initiation of injury prevention strategies in advance of inclement weather. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Operational wind shear detection and warning - The 'CLAWS' experience at Denver and future objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarthy, John; Wilson, James W.; Hjelmfelt, Mark R.

1986-01-01

An operational wind shear detection and warning experiment was conducted at Denver's Stapleton International Airport in summer 1984. Based on meteorological interpretation of scope displays from a Doppler weather radar, warnings were transmitted to the air traffic control tower via voice radio. Analyses of results indicated real skill in daily microburst forecasts and very short-term (less than 5-min) warnings. Wind shift advisories with 15-30 min forecasts, permitted more efficient runway reconfigurations. Potential fuel savings were estimated at $875,000/yr at Stapleton. The philosophy of future development toward an automated, operational system is discussed.

Warnings/Watches - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

Student Workshops for Severe Weather Warning Decision Making using AWIPS-2 at the University of Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwink, A. B.; Morris, D.; Ware, P. J.; Ernst, S.; Holcomb, B.; Riley, S.; Hardy, J.; Mullens, S.; Bowlan, M.; Payne, C.; Bates, A.; Williams, B.

2016-12-01

For several years, employees at the Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma (OU) that are affiliated with Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) of the National Weather Service (NWS) provided training simulations to students from OU's School of Meteorology (SoM). These simulations focused on warning decision making using Dual-Pol radar data products in an AWIPS-1 environment. Building on these previous experiences, CIMMS/WDTD recently continued the collaboration with the SoM Oklahoma Weather Lab (OWL) by holding a warning decision workshop simulating a NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) experience. The workshop took place in the WDTD AWIPS-2 computer laboratory with 25 AWIPS-2 workstations and the WES-2 Bridge (Weather Event Simulator) software which replayed AWIPS-2 data. Using the WES-2 Bridge and the WESSL-2 (WES Scripting Language) event display, this computer lab has the state-of-the-art ability to simulate severe weather events and recreate WFO warning operations. OWL Student forecasters attending the workshop worked in teams in a multi-player simulation of the Hastings, Nebraska WFO on May 6th, 2015, where thunderstorms across the service area produced large hail, damaging winds, and multiple tornadoes. This paper will discuss the design and goals of the WDTD/OWL workshop, as well as plans for holding similar workshops in the future.

Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota

PubMed Central

Chiu, Cindy H.; Vagi, Sara J.; Wolkin, Amy F.; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S.

2016-01-01

Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning. PMID:27239260

Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, D.K.; Wilson, R.C.; Mark, R.K.; Brabb, E.E.; Brown, W. M.; Ellen, S.D.; Harp, E.L.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Alger, C.S.; Zatkin, R.S.

1987-01-01

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

The NOAA Real-Time Solar-Wind (RTSW) System using ACE Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwickl, R. D.; Doggett, K. A.; Sahm, S.; Barrett, W. P.; Grubb, R. N.; Detman, T. R.; Raben, V. J.; Smith, C. W.; Riley, P.; Gold, R. E.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Maruyama, T.

1998-07-01

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) RTSW system is continuously monitoring the solar wind and produces warnings of impending major geomagnetic activity, up to one hour in advance. Warnings and alerts issued by NOAA allow those with systems sensitive to such activity to take preventative action. The RTSW system gathers solar wind and energetic particle data at high time resolution from four ACE instruments (MAG, SWEPAM, EPAM, and SIS), packs the data into a low-rate bit stream, and broadcasts the data continuously. NASA sends real-time data to NOAA each day when downloading science data. With a combination of dedicated ground stations (CRL in Japan and RAL in Great Britain), and time on existing ground tracking networks (NASA's DSN and the USAF's AFSCN), the RTSW system can receive data 24 hours per day throughout the year. The raw data are immediately sent from the ground station to the Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado, processed, and then delivered to its Space Weather Operations center where they are used in daily operations; the data are also delivered to the CRL Regional Warning Center at Hiraiso, Japan, to the USAF 55th Space Weather Squadron, and placed on the World Wide Web. The data are downloaded, processed and dispersed within 5 min from the time they leave ACE. The RTSW system also uses the low-energy energetic particles to warn of approaching interplanetary shocks, and to help monitor the flux of high-energy particles that can produce radiation damage in satellite systems.

An integrated weather and sea-state forecasting system for the Arabian Peninsula (WASSF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, George; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Mitsakou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Bartsotas, Nikolaos; Kalogrei, Christina; Athanaselis, Ioannis; Sofianos, Sarantis; Vervatis, Vassios; Axaopoulos, Panagiotis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Qahtani, Jumaan Al; Alaa, Elyas; Alexiou, Ioannis; Beard, Daniel

2013-04-01

Nowadays, large industrial conglomerates such as the Saudi ARAMCO, require a series of weather and sea state forecasting products that cannot be found in state meteorological offices or even commercial data providers. The two major objectives of the system is prevention and mitigation of environmental problems and of course early warning of local conditions associated with extreme weather events. The management and operations part is related to early warning of weather and sea-state events that affect operations of various facilities. The environmental part is related to air quality and especially the desert dust levels in the atmosphere. The components of the integrated system include: (i) a weather and desert dust prediction system with forecasting horizon of 5 days, (ii) a wave analysis and prediction component for Red Sea and Arabian Gulf, (iii) an ocean circulation and tidal analysis and prediction of both Red Sea and Arabian Gulf and (iv) an Aviation part specializing in the vertical structure of the atmosphere and extreme events that affect air transport and other operations. Specialized data sets required for on/offshore operations are provided ate regular basis. State of the art modeling components are integrated to a unique system that distributes the produced analysis and forecasts to each department. The weather and dust prediction system is SKIRON/Dust, the wave analysis and prediction system is based on WAM cycle 4 model from ECMWF, the ocean circulation model is MICOM while the tidal analysis and prediction is a development of the Ocean Physics and Modeling Group of University of Athens, incorporating the Tidal Model Driver. A nowcasting subsystem is included. An interactive system based on Google Maps gives the capability to extract and display the necessary information for any location of the Arabian Peninsula, the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf.

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

2017-06-01

The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.

2008-01-01

Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

Without Warning: Worker Deaths From Heat 2014-2016.

PubMed

Roelofs, Cora

2018-01-01

Worker deaths from heat exposure are unlike heat deaths in the general population; workers tend to be outside in variable temperatures and younger than sixty-five years. Climate change will increase the frequency, duration, and variability of hot temperatures. Public health warning systems, such as the Heat Index of the National Weather Service, do not generally account for workers' greater likelihood of exposure to direct sunlight or exertion. Only 28% of the 79 worker heat-related fatalities during 2014-2016 occurred on days when the National Weather Service warning would have included the possibility of fatal heat stroke. Common heat illness prevention advice ignores workers' lack of control over their ability to rest and seek cooler temperatures. Additionally, acclimatization, or phased-in work in the heat, may be less useful given temperature variability under climate change. Workers' vulnerability and context of heat exposure should inform public health surveillance and response to prevent heat illness and death.

Open Source Seismic Software in NOAA's Next Generation Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellman, S. B.; Baker, B. I.; Hagerty, M. T.; Leifer, J. M.; Lisowski, S.; Thies, D. A.; Donnelly, B. K.; Griffith, F. P.

2014-12-01

The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a project spearheaded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to update the United States' Tsunami Warning System software currently employed at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (Eva Beach, Hawaii) and the National Tsunami Warning Center (Palmer, Alaska). This entirely open source software project will integrate various seismic processing utilities with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's core software, AWIPS2. For the real-time and near real-time seismic processing aspect of this project, NOAA has elected to integrate the open source portions of GFZ's SeisComP 3 (SC3) processing system into AWIPS2. To provide for better tsunami threat assessments we are developing open source tools for magnitude estimations (e.g., moment magnitude, energy magnitude, surface wave magnitude), detection of slow earthquakes with the Theta discriminant, moment tensor inversions (e.g. W-phase and teleseismic body waves), finite fault inversions, and array processing. With our reliance on common data formats such as QuakeML and seismic community standard messaging systems, all new facilities introduced into AWIPS2 and SC3 will be available as stand-alone tools or could be easily integrated into other real time seismic monitoring systems such as Earthworm, Antelope, etc. Additionally, we have developed a template based design paradigm so that the developer or scientist can efficiently create upgrades, replacements, and/or new metrics to the seismic data processing with only a cursory knowledge of the underlying SC3.

How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2017-04-01

Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

Electronic rumble strip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Donald R.; Lenz, James

1997-02-01

Single vehicle run-off-road accidents are responsible for significant numbers of injuries and fatalities, and significant property damage. This fact spurs interest in warning systems to alert drivers that vehicles are drifting towards the edge of the road, and that a run-off road accident is imminent. An early attempt at such a warning system is the use of machined grooves on the shoulder to create a rumble strip. Such a system only provides warning, however, as the vehicle actually leaves the traffic lane. More desirable is a system that warns in anticipation of such departure. Honeywell has under development a magnetic lateral guidance system that couples a sensitive magnetoresistive transducer with a magnetic traffic marking tape being developed by 3M. While this development was initially undertaken for use in automated highways, or for special tasks such as guiding snowplow owners, the system can provide an effective, all-weather warning system to provide alert of impending departure from the roadway. This electronic rumble strip is actually a simpler system than the baseline guidance system, and can monitor both distance from the traffic lane edge and the speed of approach to the edge with a low cost sensor.

Detecting lane departures from steering wheel signal.

PubMed

Sandström, Max; Lampsijärvi, Eetu; Holmström, Axi; Maconi, Göran; Ahmadzai, Shabana; Meriläinen, Antti; Hæggström, Edward; Forsman, Pia

2017-02-01

Current lane departure warning systems are video-based and lose data when road- and weather conditions are bad. This study sought to develop a lane departure warning algorithm based on the signal drawn from the steering wheel. The rationale is that a car-based lane departure warning system should be robust regardless of road- and weather conditions. N=34 professional driver students drove in a high-fidelity driving simulator at 80km/h for 55min every third hour during 36h of sustained wakefulness. During each driving session we logged the steering wheel- and lane position signals at 60Hz. To derive the lane position signal, we quantified the transfer function of the simulated vehicle and used it to derive the absolute lane position signal from the steering wheel signal. The Pearson correlation between the derived- and actual lane position signals was r=0.48 (based on 12,000km). Next we designed an algorithm that alerted, up to three seconds before they occurred, about upcoming lane deviations that exceeded 0.2m. The sensitivity of the algorithm was 47% and the specificity was 71%. To our knowledge this exceeds the performance of the current video-based systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

1991-01-01

Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous weather warnings are studied in the context of wind shear alerts. Operational and developmental wind shear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground based sources (Doppler Radar, Low Level Wind Shear Alert System, and Pilot Reports) are evaluated by means fo pilot opinion surveys and part task simulator studies.

Disaster warning system: Satellite feasibility and comparison with terrestrial systems. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spoor, J. H.; Hodge, W. H.; Fluk, M. J.; Bamford, T. F.

1974-01-01

The Disaster Warning System (DWS) is a conceptual system which will provide the National Weather Service (NWS) with communication services in the 1980s to help minimize losses caused by natural disasters. The object of this study is a comparative analysis between a terrestrial DWS and a satellite DWS. Baseline systems satisfying the NOAA requirements were synthesized in sufficient detail so that a comparison could be made in terms of performance and cost. The cost of both baseline systems is dominated by the disaster warning and spotter reporting functions. An effort was undertaken to reduce system cost through lower-capacity alternative systems generated by modifying the baseline systems. By reducing the number of required channels and modifying the spotter reporting techniques, alternative satellite systems were synthesized. A terrestrial alternative with the coverage reduced to an estimated 95 percent of the population was considered.

Real time assessment of the 15 July 2009 New Zealand tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uslu, Burak; Power, William; Greensdale, Dianne; Titov, Vasily

2010-05-01

On the 15th July 2009 a Mw 7.6 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fiordland in the South Island of New Zealand, about 1200 km from Auckland, New Zealand, 1500 km from Hobart, Tasmania and 1800 km from Sydney, Australia. A tsunami was generated and an initial warning issued by the PTWC. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate issued its first tsunami warning for coastal regions of eastern Australia and New Zealand 24 minutes after the earthquake. By serendipitous coincidence, the earthquake struck while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk Russia. This provided the opportunity to test, in real-time, several tsunami warning systems in front of attending scientists (Schiermeier, 2009). NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science, and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate scientists were present at the symposium and worked together. Vasily Titov showed "live" NOAA's methodology (Bernard et al, 2006) to assess the tsunami potential and, in consultation with colleagues, provided warning guidance, and the warning was eventually canceled. We discuss how the forecast was done and how accurate the initial determination was. References Bernard E.N. et al., 2006, Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 364:1989-2007; doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1809 Schiermeier, Q., 2009, Tsunami forecast in real time, Published online 16 July 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.702

How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapenta, W.

2017-12-01

NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and prediction. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the value of the satellite component of the global observing system to NWS operational weather forecasting and emphasize how these data form a critical component of the NWS ability to protect life and property and ensure economic well-being.

Women in Transportation: Changing America's History - Reference Materials

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

This document describes the system requirements for two connected vehicle V2I safety applications related to work zone safety and speed management. Specifically, these applications are: Spot Weather Information Warning (SWIW) Reduced Speed Zo...

The Promise and Challenges of High Rate GNSS for Environmental Monitoring and Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, John

2017-04-01

The decadal vision Global Geodetic Observing System recognizes the potential of high rate real time GNSS for environmental monitoring. The GGOS initiated a program to advance GNSS real time high rate measurements to augment seismic and other sensor systems for earthquake and tsunami early warning. High rate multi-GNSS networks can provide ionospheric tomography for the detection and tracking of land, ocean and atmospheric gravity waves that can provide coastal warning of tsunamis induced by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, severe weather and other catastrophic events. NASA has collaborated on a microsatellite constellation of GPS receivers to measure ocean surface roughness to improve severe storm tracking and a equatorial system of GPS occultation receivers to measure ionospheric and atmospheric dynamics. Systems such as these will be significantly enhanced by the availability of a four fold increase in GNSS satellite systems with new and enhanced signal structures and by the densification of regional multi-GNSS networks. These new GNSS capabilities will rely upon improved and cost effective communications infrastructure for a network of coordinated real time analysis centers with input to national warning systems. Most important, the implementation of these new real time GNSS capabilities will rely upon the broad international support for the sharing of real time GNSS much as is done in weather and seismic observing systems and as supported by the Committee of Experts on UN Global Geodetic Information Management (UNGGIM).

Impact of Scatterometer Ocean Wind Vector Data on NOAA Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jelenak, Z.; Chang, P.; Brennan, M. J.; Sienkiewicz, J. M.

2015-12-01

Near real-time measurements of ocean surface vector winds (OSVW), including both wind speed and direction from non-NOAA satellites, are being widely used in critical operational NOAA forecasting and warning activities. The scatterometer wind data data have had major operational impact in: a) determining wind warning areas for mid-latitude systems (gale, storm,hurricane force); b) determining tropical cyclone 34-knot and 50-knot wind radii. c) tracking the center location of tropical cyclones, including the initial identification of their formation. d) identifying and warning of extreme gap and jet wind events at all latitudes. e) identifying the current location of frontal systems and high and low pressure centers. f) improving coastal surf and swell forecasts Much has been learned about the importance and utility of satellite OSVW data in operational weather forecasting and warning by exploiting OSVW research satellites in near real-time. Since December 1999 when first data from QuikSCAT scatterometer became available in near real time NOAA operations have been benefiting from ASCAT scatterometer observations on MetOp-A and B, Indian OSCAT scatterometer on OceanSat-3 and lately NASA's RapidScat mission on International Space Station. With oceans comprising over 70 percent of the earth's surface, the impacts of these data have been tremendous in serving society's needs for weather and water information and in supporting the nation's commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation and coastal preparedness. The satellite OSVW experience that has been gained over the past decade by users in the operational weather community allows for realistic operational OSVW requirements to be properly stated for future missions. Successful model of transitioning research data into operation implemented by Ocean Winds Team in NOAA's NESDIS/STAR office and subsequent data impacts will be presented and discussed.

A digital simulation of message traffic for natural disaster warning communications satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hein, G. F.; Stevenson, S. M.

1972-01-01

Various types of weather communications are required to alert industries and the general public about the impending occurrence of tornados, hurricanes, snowstorms, floods, etc. A natural disaster warning satellite system has been proposed for meeting the communications requirements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Message traffic for a communications satellite was simulated with a digital computer in order to determine the number of communications channels to meet system requirements. Poisson inputs are used for arrivals and an exponential distribution is used for service.

Tool for evaluating the evolution Space Weather Regional Warning Centers under the innovation point of view: the Case Study of the Embrace Space Weather Program Early Stages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos

2016-07-01

We have developed a tool for measuring the evolutional stage of the space weather regional warning centers using the approach of the innovative evolution starting from the perspective presented by Figueiredo (2009, Innovation Management: Concepts, metrics and experiences of companies in Brazil. Publisher LTC, Rio de Janeiro - RJ). It is based on measuring the stock of technological skills needed to perform a certain task that is (or should) be part of the scope of a space weather center. It also addresses the technological capacity for innovation considering the accumulation of technological and learning capabilities, instead of the usual international indices like number of registered patents. Based on this definition, we have developed a model for measuring the capabilities of the Brazilian Study and Monitoring Program Space Weather (Embrace), a program of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), which has gone through three national stages of development and an international validation step. This program was created in 2007 encompassing competence from five divisions of INPE in order to carry out the data collection and maintenance of the observing system in space weather; to model processes of the Sun-Earth system; to provide real-time information and to forecast space weather; and provide diagnostic their effects on different technological systems. In the present work, we considered the issues related to the innovation of micro-processes inherent to the nature of the Embrace program, not the macro-economic processes, despite recognizing the importance of these. During the development phase, the model was submitted to five scientists/managers from five different countries member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES) who presented their evaluations, concerns and suggestions. It was applied to the Embrace program through an interview form developed to be answered by professional members of regional warning centers. Based on the returning answers we have derived a map that led to the discussions presented in this work. Among them, we point out that the advent of a regional warning center demanded some internal effort to perform the new tasks normally assigned to such center. However, the research activities potential stock available at INPE undoubtedly reduced the leap time among the evolutionary steps. In the other way, once the center was established it produced considerable increase in domestic skills of employees involved in this program. The other conclusions, reflections and recommendations are presented, including a personal reflection on learning processes for technological capability accumulation of what we understand to be present in the Embrace program. Contacting Author: C. M. Denardini (clezio.denardin@inpe.br)

Majalaya Flood Early Warning System: A Community Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junnaedhi, I. Dewa Gede A.; Riawan, Edi; Suwarman, Rusmawan; Wahyu Hadi, Tri; Lubis, Atika; Joko Trilaksono, Nurjanna; Rahayu, Rahmawati; Kombara, PrawiraYudha; Waskito, Riki; Ekalaya Oktora, Hendra; Supriatna, Rahmat; Anugrah, Aan; Haq Mudzakkir, Abdul; Setiawan, Wawar

2017-06-01

Majalaya, a small city to the south-east of Bandung, was hit by flood almost every year. From January to June 2016, up to 5 severe floods and 4 moderate floods have hit this city. Although it usually not last for long, but the flood stream could be very rapid, thus have a high potential to bring damage to the city. Starting from 2012, ITB through Weather and Climate Prediction Laboratory (WCPL) has support Garda Caah (flood watcher society in Majalaya) with weather prediction system. In the late 2015, ITB also enhancing Garda Caah observation system by installing several Automatic Weather Station (AWS) and Automatic Water Level Recorder (AWLR) throughout Majalaya upstream area. The instruments itself was supported by a re-insurance company MAIPARK and some was built in house by WCPL. The collaboration between ITB, Garda Caah, and Majalaya citizens has been proved to be mutually beneficial. Garda Caah could get more accurate and faster observation and enhanced knowledge, thus could provide a better flood warning for Majalaya citizens. On the other hand, ITB could get data from observation network, with more efficient way to maintain observation instruments as it done by Garda Caah and other Majalaya citizens.

Meteoalarm severe wind gust thresholds from uniform periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijnant, I. L.

2010-09-01

The main aim of our work is to propose new thresholds for Meteoalarm severe weather warnings which are based on the local climate, specifically for the severe wind gust warnings because the variability of these thresholds is currently rather extreme and unrealistic. In order to achieve this we added validated wind data to the database of the European Climate Assessment and Database project (ECA&D) and analysed them. We also developed wind related indices for ECA&D in order to facilitate further research. Since 2007 most of the severe weather warnings issued by the National Weather Services in Europe can be found on one website: www.meteoalarm.eu. For the 30 participating countries colour codes (yellow, orange, red) are presented on a map of Europe to reflect the severity of the weather event and its possible impact. The thresholds used for these colour codes obviously depend on the type of severe weather, but should also reflect local climate (for example: identical heat waves will have a more significant impact in Sweden than in Spain). The current Meteoalarm guideline is to issue second level warnings (orange) 1-30 times a year and third level warnings (red) less than once a year (being the total number of warnings from a specific country for all of the different sorts of severe weather events in that year). There is no similar guideline for specific sorts of severe weather events and participating countries choose their own thresholds. As a result we see unrealistic differences in the frequency and thresholds of the warnings for neighbouring countries. New thresholds based on return values would reflect the local climate of each country and give a more uniform indication of the social impact. Additionally, without uniform definitions of severe weather it remains difficult to determine if severe weather in Europe is changing. ECA&D receives long series of daily data from 62 countries throughout Europe and the Mediterranean. So far we have 7 countries that provide us with wind data. Quality control and homogeneity tests are conducted on all data before analysis is carried out. For wind data the standard ECA&D homogeneity tests (SNHT, Pettitt, Buishand and Von Neuman Ratio) are performed on the wind gust factor (the ratio of the maximum daily gust to the daily average wind speed) and a relatively new test (Petrovic's ReDistribution Method) on wind direction data. For the Dutch data we compared the results of the homogeneity tests with the available meta-data. Inhomogeneous series are not corrected but the older part (before the most recent break) is excluded from further analysis.

Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

1990-01-01

Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous weather warnings are studied in the context of windshear alerts. Operational and developmental windshear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground based sources are evaluated by means of pilot opinion surveys and part task simulator studies.

National Weather Service Warning Performance Based on the WSR-88D.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polger, Paul D.; Goldsmith, Barry S.; Przywarty, Richard C.; Bocchieri, Joseph R.

1994-02-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) began operational use of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) system in March 1991 at Norman, Oklahoma. WSR-88D data have been available to forecasters at five additional offices: Melbourne, Florida, and sterling, Virginia (since January 1992); St. Louis, Missouri, and Dodge City, Kansas (since March 1992); and Houston, Texas (since April 1992). The performance of the severe local storm and flash flood warning programs at the six offices before and after the availability of the WSR-88D was measured quantitatively. The verification procedures and statistical measures used in the quantitative evaluation were those used operationally by the NWS.The statistics show that the warnings improved dramatically when the WSR-88D was in operation. Specifically, the probability of detection of severe weather events increased and the number of false alarms decreased. There was also a marked improvement in the lead time for all severe local storm and flash flood events. These improvements were evident throughout the effective range of the radar. Stratification of severe local storm data by severe thunderstorms versus tornadoes revealed an improvement in the NWS's ability to differentiate between tornadic and nontornadic storms when the WSR-88D was in operation. Four individual cases are examined to illustrate how forecasters used the WSR-88D to achieve the improved results. These cases focus on the unique features of the WSR-88D that provide an advantage over conventional NWS radars.

Development of Innovative Technology to Expand Precipitation Observations in Satellite Precipitation Validation in Under-developed Data-sparse Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucera, P. A.; Steinson, M.

2016-12-01

Accurate and reliable real-time monitoring and dissemination of observations of precipitation and surface weather conditions in general is critical for a variety of research studies and applications. Surface precipitation observations provide important reference information for evaluating satellite (e.g., GPM) precipitation estimates. High quality surface observations of precipitation, temperature, moisture, and winds are important for applications such as agriculture, water resource monitoring, health, and hazardous weather early warning systems. In many regions of the World, surface weather station and precipitation gauge networks are sparsely located and/or of poor quality. Existing stations have often been sited incorrectly, not well-maintained, and have limited communications established at the site for real-time monitoring. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with support from USAID, has started an initiative to develop and deploy low-cost weather instrumentation including tipping bucket and weighing-type precipitation gauges in sparsely observed regions of the world. The goal is to improve the number of observations (temporally and spatially) for the evaluation of satellite precipitation estimates in data-sparse regions and to improve the quality of applications for environmental monitoring and early warning alert systems on a regional to global scale. One important aspect of this initiative is to make the data open to the community. The weather station instrumentation have been developed using innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, Raspberry Pi computing systems, and wireless communications. An initial pilot project have been implemented in the country of Zambia. This effort could be expanded to other data sparse regions around the globe. The presentation will provide an overview and demonstration of 3D printed weather station development and initial evaluation of observed precipitation datasets.

Mission Statement - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

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The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

PubMed Central

Arattano, Massimo; Marchi, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows), their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and non-structural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall) and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche pendulums, photocells, trip wires etc. Event warning systems for debris flows have a strong linkage with debris-flow monitoring that is carried out for research purposes: the same sensors are often used for both monitoring and warning, although warning systems have higher requirements of robustness than monitoring systems. The paper presents a description of the sensors employed for debris-flow monitoring and event warning systems, with attention given to advantages and drawbacks of different types of sensors. PMID:27879828

Satellite Video Shows Movement of Major U.S. Winter Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-12

View a video of the storm here: bit.ly/1m9aJFY This visible image of the winter storm over the U.S. south and East Coast was taken by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on Feb. 12 at 1855 UTC/1:55 p.m. EST. Snow covered ground can be seen over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. On February 12 at 10 a.m. EST, NOAA's National Weather Service or NWS continued to issue watches and warnings from Texas to New England. Specifically, NWS cited Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories were in effect from eastern Texas eastward across the interior section of southeastern U.S. states and across much of the eastern seaboard including the Appalachians. Winter storm watches are in effect for portions of northern New England as well as along the western slopes of northern and central Appalachians. For updates on local forecasts, watches and warnings, visit NOAA's www.weather.gov webpage. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center or WPC noted the storm is expected to bring "freezing rain spreading into the Carolinas, significant snow accumulations are expected in the interior Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Thursday and ice storm warnings and freezing rain advisories are in effect across much of central Georgia. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's WPC website; www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Build an Emergency Preparedness Kit

MedlinePlus

... tire traction -Red or brightly- colored cloth -NOAA weather radio For more information on building emergency kits, ... and a flashlight with extra batteries. A NOAA weather radio warns the public of severe weather and ...

National Weather Service Marine Text Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Offshore NAVTEX Bay and Coastal Surf Zone Recreational Marine Weather Statements Special Marine Warnings Marine Weather Messages Alaska Bay and Coastal Great Lakes Open Lake Great Lakes Nearshore Great Lakes

Proceedings of the Second NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martzaklis, K. Gus (Compiler)

2003-01-01

The Second NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Annual Project Review held June 5-7, 2001, in Cleveland, Ohio, presented the NASA technical plans and accomplishments to the aviation community. NASA-developed technologies presented included an Aviation Weather Information System with associated digital communications links, electronic atmospheric reporting technologies, forward-looking turbulence warning systems, and turbulence mitigation procedures. The meeting provided feedback and insight from the aviation community of diverse backgrounds and assisted NASA in steering its plans in the direction needed to meet the national safety goal of 80-percent reduction of aircraft accidents by 2007. The proceedings of the review are enclosed.

Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

2010-05-01

Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

Flight Tests of the Turbulence Prediction and Warning System (TPAWS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, David W.; Proctor, Fred H.; Ahmad, Nashat N.

2012-01-01

Flight tests of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Turbulence Prediction And Warning System (TPAWS) were conducted in the Fall of 2000 and Spring of 2002. TPAWS is a radar-based airborne turbulence detection system. During twelve flights, NASA's B-757 tallied 53 encounters with convectively induced turbulence. Analysis of data collected during 49 encounters in the Spring of 2002 showed that the TPAWS Airborne Turbulence Detection System (ATDS) successfully detected 80% of the events at least 30 seconds prior to the encounter, achieving FAA recommended performance criteria. Details of the flights, the prevailing weather conditions, and each of the turbulence events are presented in this report. Sensor and environmental characterizations are also provided.

Current gaps in understanding and predicting space weather: An operations perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtagh, W. J.

2016-12-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), one of the nine National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction, is the Nation's official source for space weather alerts and warnings. Space weather effects the technology that forms the backbone of global economic vitality and national security, including satellite and airline operations, communications networks, and the electric power grid. Many of SWPC's over 48,000 subscribers rely on space weather forecasts for critical decision making. But extraordinary gaps still exist in our ability to meet customer needs for accurate and timely space weather forecasts and warnings. The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy recognizes that it is imperative that we improve the fundamental understanding of space weather and increase the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of space-weather observations and forecasts in support of the growing demands. In this talk we provide a broad perspective of the key challenges that currently limit the forecaster's ability to better understand and predict space weather. We also examine the impact of these limitations on the end-user community.

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

Evaluation of leaf wetness duration models for operational use in strawberry disease-warning systems in four US states.

PubMed

Montone, Verona O; Fraisse, Clyde W; Peres, Natalia A; Sentelhas, Paulo C; Gleason, Mark; Ellis, Michael; Schnabel, Guido

2016-11-01

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) plays a key role in disease development and is often used as an input in disease-warning systems. LWD is often estimated using mathematical models, since measurement by sensors is rarely available and/or reliable. A strawberry disease-warning system called "Strawberry Advisory System" (SAS) is used by growers in Florida, USA, in deciding when to spray their strawberry fields to control anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot. Currently, SAS is implemented at six locations, where reliable LWD sensors are deployed. A robust LWD model would facilitate SAS expansion from Florida to other regions where reliable LW sensors are not available. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of mathematical models to estimate LWD and time of spray recommendations in comparison to on site LWD measurements. Specific objectives were to (i) compare model estimated and observed LWD and resulting differences in timing and number of fungicide spray recommendations, (ii) evaluate the effects of weather station sensors precision on LWD models performance, and (iii) compare LWD models performance across four states in the USA. The LWD models evaluated were the classification and regression tree (CART), dew point depression (DPD), number of hours with relative humidity equal or greater than 90 % (NHRH ≥90 %), and Penman-Monteith (P-M). P-M model was expected to have the lowest errors, since it is a physically based and thus portable model. Indeed, the P-M model estimated LWD most accurately (MAE <2 h) at a weather station with high precision sensors but was the least accurate when lower precision sensors of relative humidity and estimated net radiation (based on solar radiation and temperature) were used (MAE = 3.7 h). The CART model was the most robust for estimating LWD and for advising growers on fungicide-spray timing for anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot control and is therefore the model we recommend for expanding the strawberry disease warning beyond Florida, to other locations where weather stations may be deployed with lower precision sensors, and net radiation observations are not available.

Evaluation of leaf wetness duration models for operational use in strawberry disease-warning systems in four US states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montone, Verona O.; Fraisse, Clyde W.; Peres, Natalia A.; Sentelhas, Paulo C.; Gleason, Mark; Ellis, Michael; Schnabel, Guido

2016-11-01

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) plays a key role in disease development and is often used as an input in disease-warning systems. LWD is often estimated using mathematical models, since measurement by sensors is rarely available and/or reliable. A strawberry disease-warning system called "Strawberry Advisory System" (SAS) is used by growers in Florida, USA, in deciding when to spray their strawberry fields to control anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot. Currently, SAS is implemented at six locations, where reliable LWD sensors are deployed. A robust LWD model would facilitate SAS expansion from Florida to other regions where reliable LW sensors are not available. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of mathematical models to estimate LWD and time of spray recommendations in comparison to on site LWD measurements. Specific objectives were to (i) compare model estimated and observed LWD and resulting differences in timing and number of fungicide spray recommendations, (ii) evaluate the effects of weather station sensors precision on LWD models performance, and (iii) compare LWD models performance across four states in the USA. The LWD models evaluated were the classification and regression tree (CART), dew point depression (DPD), number of hours with relative humidity equal or greater than 90 % (NHRH ≥90 %), and Penman-Monteith (P-M). P-M model was expected to have the lowest errors, since it is a physically based and thus portable model. Indeed, the P-M model estimated LWD most accurately (MAE <2 h) at a weather station with high precision sensors but was the least accurate when lower precision sensors of relative humidity and estimated net radiation (based on solar radiation and temperature) were used (MAE = 3.7 h). The CART model was the most robust for estimating LWD and for advising growers on fungicide-spray timing for anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot control and is therefore the model we recommend for expanding the strawberry disease warning beyond Florida, to other locations where weather stations may be deployed with lower precision sensors, and net radiation observations are not available.

Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards and success stories in disaster prevention and mitigation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo

2016-04-01

The Philippines, being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property in the country. In 2011, after tropical storm Washi devastated cities in southern Philippines, the Department of Science and Technology put in place a responsive program to warn and give communities hours-in-advance lead-time to prepare for imminent hazards and use advanced science and technology to enhance geohazard maps for more effective disaster prevention and mitigation. Since its launch, there have been many success stories on the use of Project NOAH, which after Typhoon Haiyan was integrated into the Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) system of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the government agency tasked to prepare for, and respond to, natural calamities. Learning from past disasters, NDRRMC now issues warnings, through scientific advise from DOST-Project NOAH and PAGASA (Philippine Weather Bureau) that are hazards-specific, area-focused and time-bound. Severe weather events in 2015 generated dangerous hazard phenomena such as widespread floods and massive debris flows, which if not for timely, accessible and understandable warnings, could have turned into disasters. We call these events as "disasters that did not happen". The innovative warning system of the Philippine government has so far proven effective in addressing the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards and can be employed elsewhere in the world.

When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2010-01-01

The goal of weather prediction is to provide information people and organizations can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance societal benefits, including protection of life and property, public health and safety, and support of economic prosperity and quality of life. In economic terms, the benefit of the investment in public weather forecasts and warnings is substantial: the estimated annualized benefit is about $31.5 billion, compared to the $5.1 billion cost of generating the information. Between 1980 and 2009, 96 weather disasters in the United States each caused at least $1 billion in damages, with total losses exceeding $700 billion. Between 1999 and 2008, there were an average of 629 direct weather fatalities per year. The annual impacts of adverse weather on the national highway system and roads are staggering: 1.5 million weather-related crashes with 7,400 deaths, more than 700,000 injuries, and $42 billion in economic losses.

Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

PubMed

Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

2012-03-01

Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

2015-04-01

Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is a 24 hour window of high resolution/accuracy forecasts leveraging available data-model integration and CAPE prediction. The systems includes dissemination of WRF outputs over the World Wide Web. Components of the system (including WRF computational engine and results dissemination modules) are deployed in to computational cloud. This approach tends to increase system robustness and sustainability. The creation of such a system to share information between the public and private sectors and across territorial boundaries is an important step towards the next generation of governance for climate risk and extreme weather offshore. The system benefits offshore operators by reducing downtime related to accidents and incidents; eliminate unnecessary hiring costs related to waiting on weather; and improve the efficiency and planning of transport and logistics by providing a rolling weather risk advisory.

NOAA Weather Wire Service

Science.gov Websites

& Imagery; includes NWS alerts and warnings No 6 Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) Mobile Phone Alerts & Warnings only No 7 Interactive NWS (iNWS) - NOTE 1 https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/ Mobile Phone $$$$) Internet/ Mobile Phone Alerts and Warnings No 15 County or Local Emergency Management Telephone alert

Severe Weather Planning for Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Barbara McNaught; Strong, Christopher; Bunting, Bill

2008-01-01

Flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes occur with rapid onset and often no warning. Decisions must be made quickly and actions taken immediately. This paper provides tips for schools on: (1) Preparing for Severe Weather Emergencies; (2) Activating a Severe Weather Plan; (3) Severe Weather Plan Checklist; and (4) Periodic Drills and…

An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth

2017-10-01

Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

The Influence Analysis of the Rainfall Meteorological Conditions on the Operation of the Balloon Borne Radar in Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiong; Geng, Fangzhi

2018-03-01

Based on the characteristics of complex terrain and different seasons’ weather in Qinghai Tibet Plateau, through statistic the daily rainfall that from 2002 to 2012, nearly 11 years, by Bomi meteorological station, Bomi area rainfall forecast model is established, and which can provide the basis forecasting for dangerous weather warning system on the balloon borne radar in the next step, to protect the balloon borne radar equipment’s safety work and combat effectiveness.

NPP Satellite Launch

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-10-28

The Satellite Operations Facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is seen here minutes before the launch of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project (NPP) on Friday, Oct. 28, 2011 in Suitland, Md. NPP is a joint venture between NASA and NOAA, and is the nation's newest Earth-observing satellite, which will provide data on climate change science, allow for accurate weather forecasts and advance warning for severe weather. NPP was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Photo Credit: (NASA/Carla Cioffi)

New generation of meteorology cameras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janout, Petr; Blažek, Martin; Páta, Petr

2017-12-01

A new generation of the WILLIAM (WIde-field aLL-sky Image Analyzing Monitoring system) camera includes new features such as monitoring of rain and storm clouds during the day observation. Development of the new generation of weather monitoring cameras responds to the demand for monitoring of sudden weather changes. However, new WILLIAM cameras are ready to process acquired image data immediately, release warning against sudden torrential rains, and send it to user's cell phone and email. Actual weather conditions are determined from image data, and results of image processing are complemented by data from sensors of temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure. In this paper, we present the architecture, image data processing algorithms of mentioned monitoring camera and spatially-variant model of imaging system aberrations based on Zernike polynomials.

Crowdsourcing of weather observations at national meteorological and hydrological services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Pistotnik, Georg; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Csekits, Christian

2018-05-01

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) increase their efforts to deliver impact-based weather forecasts and warnings. At the same time, a desired increase in cost-efficiency prompts these services to automatize their weather station networks and to reduce the number of human observers, which leads to a lack of ground truth information about weather phenomena and their impact. A possible alternative is to encourage the general public to submit weather observations, which may include crucial information especially in high-impact situations. We wish to provide an overview of the state and properties of existing collaborations between NMHSs and voluntary weather observers or storm spotters across Europe. For that purpose, we performed a survey among 30 European NMHSs, from which 22 NMHSs returned our questionnaire. This study summarizes the most important findings and evaluates the use of crowdsourced information. 86 % of the surveyed NMHSs utilize information provided by the general public, 50 % have established official collaborations with spotter groups, and 18 % have formalized them. The observations are most commonly used for a real-time improvement of severe weather warnings, their verification, and an establishment of a climatology of severe weather events. The importance of these volunteered weather and impact observations has strongly risen over the past decade. We expect that this trend will continue and that storm spotters will become an essential part in severe weather warning, like they have been for decades in the United States of America. A rising number of incoming reports implies that quality management will become an increasing issue, and we finally discuss an idea how to handle this challenge.

Nowcasting system MeteoExpert at Irkutsk airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazlova, Tatiana; Bocharnikov, Nikolai; Solonin, Alexander

2016-04-01

Airport operations are significantly impacted by low visibility concerned with fog. Generation of accurate and timely nowcast products is a basis of early warning automated system providing information about significant weather conditions for decision-makers. Nowcasting system MeteoExpert has been developed that provides aviation forecasters with 0-6 hour nowcasts of the weather conditions including fog and low visibility. The system has been put into operation at the airport Irkutsk since August 2014. Aim is to increase an accuracy of fog forecasts, contributing to the airport safety, efficiency and capacity improvement. Designed for operational use numerical model of atmospheric boundary layer runs with a 10-minute update cycle. An important component of the system is the use of AWOS at the airdrome and three additional automatic weather stations at fogging sites in the vicinity of the airdrome. Nowcasts are visualized on a screen of forecaster's workstation and dedicated website. Nowcasts have been verified against actual observations.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Tim Walsh, GOES-R System Program director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S, the second spacecraft in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

2016-04-01

The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational platform software, Delft-FEWS. The presently operational Mauritius Early-Warning System produces a set of intuitive tables for each island, containing time- and space-varying information on threshold crossings by predicted water levels. At multiple locations for each island of the ROM, the operator is informed in one glance about the recommended preparedness level, from "Safe" to "Watch", "Alert" or "Warning" based on water level forecasts. The HTML page was designed together with the MMS and the NDRRMC, in order to be easy to interpret and disseminate by local authorities.

National Weather Service - Office of Hydrologic Development

Science.gov Websites

Prediction System (CHPS) National Water Center NWS Hydrology Science Research and Collaboration Strategic Storymap The Office of Hydrologic Development reorganized into the Office of Water Prediction with through the infusion of new science and technology. This service improves flood warnings and water

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

33 CFR 150.445 - When is oil in a single point mooring-oil transfer system (SPM-OTS) displaced with water?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... the pipeline end manifold must be closed whenever: (1) A storm warning forecasts weather conditions... vessel is about to depart the SPM because of storm conditions; or (3) The SPM is not scheduled for use in...

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Forecast and Warning Services of the National Weather Service Introduction Quantitative precipitation future which is an active area of research currently. 2) Evaluate HPN performance for forecast periods

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: Successes in Tsunami Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R. I.

2012-12-01

Formed in 1995 by Congressional Action, the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP) provides the framework for tsunami preparedness activities in the United States. The Program consists of the 28 U.S. coastal states, territories, and commonwealths (STCs), as well as three Federal agencies: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Since its inception, the NTHMP has advanced tsunami preparedness in the United States through accomplishments in many areas of tsunami preparedness: - Coordination and funding of tsunami hazard analysis and preparedness activities in STCs; - Development and execution of a coordinated plan to address education and outreach activities (materials, signage, and guides) within its membership; - Lead the effort to assist communities in meeting National Weather Service (NWS) TsunamiReady guidelines through development of evacuation maps and other planning activities; - Determination of tsunami hazard zones in most highly threatened coastal communities throughout the country by detailed tsunami inundation studies; - Development of a benchmarking procedure for numerical tsunami models to ensure models used in the inundation studies meet consistent, NOAA standards; - Creation of a national tsunami exercise framework to test tsunami warning system response; - Funding community tsunami warning dissemination and reception systems such as sirens and NOAA Weather Radios; and, - Providing guidance to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers regarding warning dissemination and content. NTHMP activities have advanced the state of preparedness of United States coastal communities, and have helped save lives and property during recent tsunamis. Program successes as well as future plans, including maritime preparedness, are discussed.

CLASS: Coherent Lidar Airborne Shear Sensor. Windshear avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Targ, Russell

1991-01-01

The coherent lidar airborne shear sensor (CLASS) is an airborne CO2 lidar system being designed and developed by Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Inc. (LMSC) under contract to NASA Langley Research Center. The goal of this program is to develop a system with a 2- to 4-kilometer range that will provide a warning time of 20 to 40 seconds, so that the pilot can avoid the hazards of low-altitude wind shear under all weather conditions. It is a predictive system which will warn the pilot about a hazard that the aircraft will experience at some later time. The ability of the system to provide predictive warnings of clear air turbulence will also be evaluated. A one-year flight evaluation program will measure the line-of-sight wind velocity from a wide variety of wind fields obtained by an airborne radar, an accelerometer-based reactive wind-sensing system, and a ground-based Doppler radar. The success of the airborne lidar system will be determined by its correlation with the windfield as indicated by the onboard reactive system, which indicates the winds actually experienced by the NASA Boeing 737 aircraft.

Examining the Pilot and Controller Performance Data When in a Free Flight with Weather Phenomenon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nituen, Celestine A.; Lozito, Sandra C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The present study investigated effects of weather related factors on the performance of pilots under free flight. A weather scenario was defined by a combination of precipitation factors (light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain or snow), visibility (1,4,8 miles), wind conditions (light, medium, or heavy), cloud ceiling (800ft. below, 1800ft above, and 4000ft horizontal). The performance of the aircraft self-separation was evaluated in terms of detection accuracy and detection times for student- and commercial (expert) pilots. Overall, the results obtained from a behavioral analysis showed that in general, the ability to recognize intruder aircraft conflict incidents, followed by the ability to acquire the spatial location of the intruder aircraft relative to ownership aircraft were judged to be the major cognitive tasks as perceived by the participants during self-separation. Further, the participants rarely used cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) during conflict management related to aircraft separation, but used CDTI highly during decision-making tasks. In all weather scenarios, there were remarkable differences between expert and student pilots in detection times. In summary, weather scenarios were observed to affect intruder aircraft detection performance accuracies. There was interaction effects between weather Scenario-1 and Scenario-2 for climbing task data generated by both expert- and student- pilots at high traffic density. Scenario-3 weather condition provided an opportunity for poor detection accuracy as well as detection time increase. This may be attributed to low visibility. The intruder aircraft detection times were not affected by the weather conditions during climbing and descending tasks. The decision of pilots to fly into certain weather condition was dependent in part on the warning distance to the location of the weather. When pilots were warned of the weather conditions, they were more likely to fly their aircraft into it, but mostly when the warning was not close to the weather location.

Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall.

PubMed

Hii, Yien Ling; Zhu, Huaiping; Ng, Nawi; Ng, Lee Ching; Rocklöv, Joacim

2012-01-01

An accurate early warning system to predict impending epidemics enhances the effectiveness of preventive measures against dengue fever. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a forecasting model that could predict dengue cases and provide timely early warning in Singapore. We developed a time series Poisson multivariate regression model using weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall over the period 2000-2010. Weather data were modeled using piecewise linear spline functions. We analyzed various lag times between dengue and weather variables to identify the optimal dengue forecasting period. Autoregression, seasonality and trend were considered in the model. We validated the model by forecasting dengue cases for week 1 of 2011 up to week 16 of 2012 using weather data alone. Model selection and validation were based on Akaike's Information Criterion, standardized Root Mean Square Error, and residuals diagnoses. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to analyze the sensitivity of the forecast of epidemics. The optimal period for dengue forecast was 16 weeks. Our model forecasted correctly with errors of 0.3 and 0.32 of the standard deviation of reported cases during the model training and validation periods, respectively. It was sensitive enough to distinguish between outbreak and non-outbreak to a 96% (CI = 93-98%) in 2004-2010 and 98% (CI = 95%-100%) in 2011. The model predicted the outbreak in 2011 accurately with less than 3% possibility of false alarm. We have developed a weather-based dengue forecasting model that allows warning 16 weeks in advance of dengue epidemics with high sensitivity and specificity. We demonstrate that models using temperature and rainfall could be simple, precise, and low cost tools for dengue forecasting which could be used to enhance decision making on the timing, scale of vector control operations, and utilization of limited resources.

ISES Experience in Delivering Space Weather Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boteler, David

The International Space Environment Service has over eighty years experience in providing space weather services to meet a wide variety of user needs. This started with broadcast on December 1, 2008 from the Eiffel Tower about radio conditions. The delivery of information about ionospheric effects on high frequency (HF) radio propagation continue to be a major concern in many parts of the world. The movement into space brought requirements for a new set of space weather services, ranging from radiation dangers to man in space, damage to satellites and effects on satellite communication and navigation systems. On the ground magnetic survey, power system and pipeline operators require information about magnetic disturbances that can affect their operations. In the past these services have been delivered by individual Regional Warning Centres. However, the needs of new trans-national users are stimulating the development of new collaborative international space weather services.

NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

PubMed Central

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James P.

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa. PMID:28195575

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Verdin, James

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications.

PubMed

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D; Verdin, James P

2017-02-14

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET's operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Krist; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peter, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James P.

2017-02-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET's operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Tornadogenesis via squall line and supercell interaction revisited - The 15 November 1989 Huntsville tornado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Knupp, Kevin R.

1990-01-01

A case study analyzing the environmental setting and storm system morphology that provides observational evidence of a mechanism involving the interaction of a gust front with a preexisting mesocyclone is presented. This case serves to reemphasize the existence of a high conditional probability of tornado occurrence, given the merger of a gust front (or storm outflow) with a moderate to strong thunderstorm ahead of it. The resultant data serve to illustrate some important unresolved issues relevant to the severe weather warning system that involve the present and planned local warning and network radars, and future algorithms that might intelligently integrate other data sources and models with the radar data.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Mic Woltman, chief of the Fleet Systems Integration Branch of NASA's Launch Services Program, left, and Gabriel Rodriguez-Mena, a United Launch Alliance systems test engineer, speak to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Aviation weather services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprinkle, C. H.

1983-01-01

The primary responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) are to: provide warnings of severe weather and flooding for the protection of life and property; provide public forecasts for land and adjacent ocean areas for planning and operation; and provide weather support for: production of food and fiber; management of water resources; production, distribution and use of energy; and efficient and safe air operations.

Weather Education/Outreach - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

Careers in Weather - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

WPC Winter Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

Sensor performance and weather effects modeling for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Everson, Jeffrey H.; Kopala, Edward W.; Lazofson, Laurence E.; Choe, Howard C.; Pomerleau, Dean A.

1995-01-01

Optical sensors are used for several ITS applications, including lateral control of vehicles, traffic sign recognition, car following, autonomous vehicle navigation, and obstacle detection. This paper treats the performance assessment of a sensor/image processor used as part of an on-board countermeasure system to prevent single vehicle roadway departure crashes. Sufficient image contrast between objects of interest and backgrounds is an essential factor influencing overall system performance. Contrast is determined by material properties affecting reflected/radiated intensities, as well as weather and visibility conditions. This paper discusses the modeling of these parameters and characterizes the contrast performance effects due to reduced visibility. The analysis process first involves generation of inherent road/off- road contrasts, followed by weather effects as a contrast modification. The sensor is modeled as a charge coupled device (CCD), with variable parameters. The results of the sensor/weather modeling are used to predict the performance on an in-vehicle warning system under various levels of adverse weather. Software employed in this effort was previously developed for the U.S. Air Force Wright Laboratory to determine target/background detection and recognition ranges for different sensor systems operating under various mission scenarios.

Single pilot IFR operating problems determined from accidental data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forsyth, D. L.; Shaughnessy, J. D.

1978-01-01

The accident reports examined were restricted to instrument rated pilots flying in IFR weather. A brief examination was made of accidents which occurred during all phases of flight and which were due to all causes. A detailed examination was made of those accidents which involved a single pilot which occurred during the landing phases of flight, and were due to pilot error. Problem areas found include: (1) landing phase operations especially final approach, (2) pilot weather briefings, (3) night approaches in low IFR weather, (4) below minimum approaches, (5) aircraft icing, (6) imprecise navigation, (7) descending below minimum IFR altitudes, (8) fuel mismanagement, (9) pilot overconfidence, and (10) high pilot workload especially in twins. Some suggested areas of research included: (1) low cost deicing systems, (2) standardized navigation displays, (3) low cost low-altitude warning systems, (4) improved fuel management systems, (5) improved ATC communications, (6) more effective pilot training and experience acquisition methods, and (7) better weather data dissemination techniques.

Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

2011-01-01

Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

Tsunami Warning Services for the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P. M.; Knight, W.

2008-12-01

In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a tsunami warning program for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within a year, this program extended further to the Atlantic coast of Canada and the Caribbean Sea. Warning services are provided to U.S. and Canadian coasts (including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) by the NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) while the NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) provides services for non-U.S. entities in the Caribbean Basin. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is also an active partner in the Caribbean Basin warning system. While the nature of the tsunami threat in the Atlantic Basin is different than in the Pacific, the warning system philosophy is similar. That is, initial messages are based strictly on seismic data so that information is provided to those at greatest risk as fast as possible while supplementary messages are refined with sea level observations and forecasts when possible. The Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) acquire regional seismic data through many agencies, such as the United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Canada, regional seismic networks, and the PRSN. Seismic data quantity and quality are generally sufficient throughout most of the Atlantic area-of-responsibility to issue initial information within five minutes of origin time. Sea level data are mainly provided by the NOAA/National Ocean Service. Coastal tide gage coverage is generally denser along the Atlantic coast than in the Pacific. Seven deep ocean pressure sensors (DARTs), operated by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Data Buoy Center, are located in the Atlantic Basin (5 in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 in the Caribbean, and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico). The DARTs provide TWCs with the means to verify tsunami generation in the Atlantic and provide critical data with which to calibrate forecast models. Tsunami warning response criteria in the Atlantic Basin poses a challenge due to the lack of historic events. The probability and nature of potential sources along the offshore U.S./Canada region are not well understood. Warning/watch/advisory criteria are under review to improve TWC response. Primary tsunami warning contact points consist of NWS Weather Forecast Offices, state warning points, U.S. Coast Guard, and the military. These entities each have responsibility to propagate the message through specific channels. To help communities prepare for a tsunami warning, the NWS established the TsunamiReady program. TsunamiReady sets criteria for communities which include: reliable methods to receive TWC warnings, reliable methods to disseminate messages locally, pre-event planning, hazard/safe zones defined and public education. Once the criteria are met, the community can be recognized as TsunamiReady. A hypothetical event off the east coast is examined and a timeline given for TWC analysis and product issuance.

Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

1989-01-01

Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous-weather warnings are studied in the context of wind-shear alerts. Operational and developmental wind-shear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver TDWR operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content, and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground-based sources (Doppler radars, LLWAS, and PIREPS) are evaluated by means of pilot opinion surveys and part-task simulator studies.

Forecasting of wet snow avalanche activity: Proof of concept and operational implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobiet, Andreas; Jöbstl, Lisa; Rieder, Hannes; Bellaire, Sascha; Mitterer, Christoph

2017-04-01

State-of-the-art tools for the operational assessment of avalanche danger include field observations, recordings from automatic weather stations, meteorological analyses and forecasts, and recently also indices derived from snowpack models. In particular, an index for identifying the onset of wet-snow avalanche cycles (LWCindex), has been demonstrated to be useful. However, its value for operational avalanche forecasting is currently limited, since detailed, physically based snowpack models are usually driven by meteorological data from automatic weather stations only and have therefore no prognostic ability. Since avalanche risk management heavily relies on timely information and early warnings, many avalanche services in Europe nowadays start issuing forecasts for the following days, instead of the traditional assessment of the current avalanche danger. In this context, the prognostic operation of detailed snowpack models has recently been objective of extensive research. In this study a new, observationally constrained setup for forecasting the onset of wet-snow avalanche cycles with the detailed snow cover model SNOWPACK is presented and evaluated. Based on data from weather stations and different numerical weather prediction models, we demonstrate that forecasts of the LWCindex as indicator for wet-snow avalanche cycles can be useful for operational warning services, but is so far not reliable enough to be used as single warning tool without considering other factors. Therefore, further development currently focuses on the improvement of the forecasts by applying ensemble techniques and suitable post processing approaches to the output of numerical weather prediction models. In parallel, the prognostic meteo-snow model chain is operationally used by two regional avalanche warning services in Austria since winter 2016/2017 for the first time. Experiences from the first operational season and first results from current model developments will be reported.

WPC 48-Hour Surface Weather Forecast

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

WPC 12-Hour Surface Weather Forecast

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

WPC 36-Hour Surface Weather Forecast

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

WPC Excessive Rainfall and Winter Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

WPC 24-Hour Surface Weather Forecast

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

MedlinePlus

... Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ... PSAs for Disasters Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Social Media Health and Safety Concerns for All Disasters Animals ...

Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

MedlinePlus

... Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ... PSAs for Disasters Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Social Media Health and Safety Concerns for All Disasters Animals ...

NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards

Science.gov Websites

Station Search Coverage Maps Outages View Outages Report Outages Information General Information Receiver Information Reception Problems NWR Alarms Automated Voices FIPS Codes NWR - Special Needs SAME USING SAME SAME Weather Service (NWS) warnings, watches, forecasts and other non-weather related hazard information 24

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Jim Roberts, a scientist with the Earth System Research Laboratory's Office of Atmospheric Research for NOAA, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Gabriel Rodriguez-Mena, a United Launch Alliance systems test engineer, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Comparison of landslide forecasting services in Piedmont (Italy) and Norway, illustrated by events in late spring 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devoli, Graziella; Tiranti, Davide; Cremonini, Roberto; Sund, Monica; Boje, Søren

2018-05-01

Only few countries operate systematically national and regional forecasting services for rainfall-induced landslides (i.e., debris flows, debris avalanches and shallow slides), among them Norway and Italy. In Norway, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) operates a landslide forecasting service at national level. In Italy, the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection, ARPA Piemonte, is responsible for issuing landslide warnings for the Piedmont region, located in northwestern Italy. A daily hazard assessment is performed, describing both expected awareness level and type of landslide hazard for a selected warning region. Both services provide regular landslide hazard assessments based on a combination of quantitative thresholds and daily rainfall forecasts together with qualitative expert analysis. Daily warning reports are published at http://www.arpa.piemonte.gov.it/rischinaturali and http://www.varsom.no, last access: 7 May 2018. In spring 2013, ARPA Piemonte and the NVE issued warnings for hydro-meteorological hazards due to the arrival of a deep and large low-pressure system, called herein Vb cyclone. This kind of weather system is known to produce the largest floods in Europe. Less known is that this weather pattern can trigger landslides as well. In this study, we present the experiences of NVE and ARPA Piemonte in the late spring of 2013. The Vb cyclone influenced weather throughout Europe over a long period, from the end of April until the beginning of June 2013. However, major affects were observed in the first half part of this period in Piedmont, while in Norway, major damage was reported from 15 May to 2 June 2013. Floods and landslides significantly damaged roads, railways, buildings and other infrastructure in both countries. This case study shows that large synoptic pattern can produce different natural hazards in different parts of Europe, from sandstorms at low latitudes, to flood and landslides when the system moves across the mountain regions. These secondary effects were effectively forecasted by the two landslide warning services, operating in different parts of Europe. The landslide risks were also properly communicated to the public some days in advance. This analysis has allowed the establishment of fruitful international collaboration between ARPA Piemonte and NVE and the future exchange of experiences, procedures and methods relating to similar events.

Operational Space Weather Activities in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Thomas; Singer, Howard; Onsager, Terrance; Viereck, Rodney; Murtagh, William; Rutledge, Robert

2016-07-01

We review the current activities in the civil operational space weather forecasting enterprise of the United States. The NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, working with partners in the Air Force as well as international operational forecast services to provide predictions, data, and products on a large variety of space weather phenomena and impacts. In October 2015, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the National Space Weather Strategy (NSWS) and associated Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) that define how the nation will better forecast, mitigate, and respond to an extreme space weather event. The SWAP defines actions involving multiple federal agencies and mandates coordination and collaboration with academia, the private sector, and international bodies to, among other things, develop and sustain an operational space weather observing system; develop and deploy new models of space weather impacts to critical infrastructure systems; define new mechanisms for the transition of research models to operations and to ensure that the research community is supported for, and has access to, operational model upgrade paths; and to enhance fundamental understanding of space weather through support of research models and observations. The SWAP will guide significant aspects of space weather operational and research activities for the next decade, with opportunities to revisit the strategy in the coming years through the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council.

The Heat Is On: Decision-Maker Perspectives on When and How to Issue a Heat Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, M.; Sampson, N.; McCormick, S.; Rood, R. B.; Buxton, M.; Ebi, K. L.; Gronlund, C. J.; Zhang, K.; Catalano, L.; White-Newsome, J. L.; Conlon, K. C.; Parker, E. A.

2011-12-01

To better understand how to prevent illness and deaths during hot weather, particularly among at-risk populations, we conducted a study in Detroit, Michigan; Phoenix, Arizona; New York, New York, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Our aims were to characterize and better understand how heatwave and health early warning systems (HHWS) and related prevention and sustainability programs can be more widely and effectively implemented. Specifically, we here report on the scientific evidence, expert judgments and the process used in deciding to trigger a HHWS and activate public health and social services interventions. We conducted interviews with public officials who decide if and when heat advisories/warnings are issued. After transcribing the interviews, we used a qualitative analysis software, QSR NVivo 9.0, to assign codes to portions of text from each transcript and allow analysis of information with common themes across the data. For example, several sentences in a transcript discussing a heat index might be coded as 'definition of heat wave'. A common theme across cities was that deciding what type of weather is dangerous to health is not straightforward. The time in season that heat occurs; the duration of the heat; the level of humidity and other meteorological factors; the extent to which temperatures drop at night, allowing people to cool off; and prevailing weather conditions all play a role. A single 'safe' threshold is unrealistic because people's individual sensitivity, housing, surrounding environments, behaviors, and access to air conditioning can differ greatly. However, choices must be made as to the trigger for the HHWS. Although quantitative analysis with health data (mortality, hospital admissions) can inform the design of the triggers, historical analysis has limitations, and decisions to issue heat warnings are sometimes related to planned activities, such as parades or fairs, that may expose large numbers of people to heat. The HHWS approach designed by Lawrence Kalkstein and colleagues using synoptic air mass forecasts and mortality data has been used by some cities. Other cities use National Weather Service products that are built on a variety of data inputs and approaches, including calculation of season-specific thresholds. More than one respondent mentioned distaste for 'black box' approaches that were not easily communicated to end-users. The decision to issue a heat warning can save lives, through such activities as opening cooling centers, distributing water to the homeless, and assisting elderly residents. A relatively simple triggering system that is easily understood by the media and public may facilitate more widespread adoption of HHWS. Funding: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Grant R18-EH000348

Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

2017-04-01

In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelis, María Carolina; Werner, Micha

2018-02-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental to extend forecast lead times beyond the concentration time of a watershed. Particularly for flash flood forecasting in tropical mountainous watersheds, forecast precipitation is required to provide timely warnings. This paper aims to assess the potential of NWP for flood early warning purposes, and the possible improvement that bias correction can provide, in a tropical mountainous area. The paper focuses on the comparison of streamflows obtained from the post-processed precipitation forecasts, particularly the comparison of ensemble forecasts and their potential in providing skilful flood forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce precipitation forecasts that are post-processed and used to drive a hydrologic model. Discharge forecasts obtained from the hydrological model are used to assess the skill of the WRF model. The results show that post-processed WRF precipitation adds value to the flood early warning system when compared to zero-precipitation forecasts, although the precipitation forecast used in this analysis showed little added value when compared to climatology. However, the reduction of biases obtained from the post-processed ensembles show the potential of this method and model to provide usable precipitation forecasts in tropical mountainous watersheds. The need for more detailed evaluation of the WRF model in the study area is highlighted, particularly the identification of the most suitable parameterisation, due to the inability of the model to adequately represent the convective precipitation found in the study area.

... AND HERE COMES THE WEATHER - Austrian TV and radio weather news in the eye of the public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keul, A.; Holzer, A. M.; Wostal, T.

2010-09-01

Media weather reports as the main avenue of meteorological and climatological information to the general public have always been in the focus of critical investigation. Former research found that although weather reports are high-interest topics, the amount of information recalled by non-experts is rather low, and criticized this. A pilot study (Keul et al., 2009) by the Salzburg University in cooperation with ORF, the Austrian Broadcasting Corporation, used historic radio files on a fair-weather and a storm situation. It identified the importance of intelligible wording of the weather forecast messages for lay people. Without quality control, weather information can stimulate rumours, false comfort or false alarms. More qualitative and experimental research, also on TV weather, seems justified. This need for further research was addressed by a second and larger field experiment in the spring of 2010. The survey took place in Salzburg City, Austria, with a quota sample of about 90 lay persons. This time TV and radio weather reports were used and a more realistic listening and viewing situation was created by presenting the latest weather forecasts of the given day to the test persons in the very next hours after originally broadcasting them. It asked lay people what they find important in the weather reports and what they remember for their actual next-day use. Reports of a fairweather prognosis were compared with a warning condition. The weather media mix of the users was explored. A second part of the study was a questionnaire which tested the understanding of typical figures of speech used in weather forecasts or even meteorological terms, which might also be important for fully understanding the severe weather warnings. This leads to quantitative and qualitative analysis from which the most important and unexpected results are presented. Short presentation times (1.5 to 2 minutes) make Austrian radio and TV weather reports a narrow compromise between general, regional, singular and average data sets, between infotainment and alarm. To dig deeper for media-relevant results, user studies should move out of the laboratory into the life of the lay users. Reference: 2009, Keul, A.G., Holzer, A.M., Sterzinger, P., Rudolf, S., Reinmüller, A. & Messerklinger, S.; Are Austrian radio weather warnings user-friendly?, Proceedings, 5thECSS Landshut, p. 133.

Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, Adrian

2010-01-01

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai-Chen, C.

Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate weather analysis for forecasting and decreasing the damage of the disasters over the area concerned.

Sun-Burned: Space Weather’s Impact On U.S. National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

for navigation, the wideband global satellite communications system used for secure links in multiple frequencies , the space-based infrared system...used for early warning missile detection, the advanced extremely high frequency used for jam resistant strategic communications , and the defense...NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11 . SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for

NASA Turbulence Technologies In-Service Evaluation: Delta Air Lines Report-Out

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amaral, Christian; Dickson, Steve; Watts, Bill

2007-01-01

Concluding an in-service evaluation of two new turbulence detection technologies developed in the Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) element of the NASA Aviation Safety and Security Program's Weather Accident Prevention Project (WxAP), this report documents Delta's experience working with the technologies, feedback gained from pilots and dispatchers concerning current turbulence techniques and procedures, and Delta's recommendations regarding directions for further efforts by the research community. Technologies evaluated included an automatic airborne turbulence encounter reporting technology called the Turbulence Auto PIREP System (TAPS), and a significant enhancement to the ability of modern airborne weather radars to predict and display turbulence of operational significance, called E-Turb radar.

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Near Real Time Data for Operational Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2014-12-01

Space weather operations presents unique challenges for data systems and providers. Space weather events evolve more quickly than terrestrial weather events. While terrestrial weather occurs on timescales of minutes to hours, space weather storms evolve on timescales of seconds to minutes. For example, the degradation of the High Frequency Radio communications between the ground and commercial airlines is nearly instantaneous when a solar flare occurs. Thus the customer is observing impacts at the same time that the operational forecast center is seeing the event unfold. The diversity and spatial scale of the space weather system is such that no single observation can capture the salient features. The vast space that encompasses space weather and the scarcity of observations further exacerbates the situation and make each observation even more valuable. The physics of interplanetary space, through which many major storms propagate, is very different from the physics of the ionosphere where most of the impacts are felt. And while some observations can be made from ground-based observatories, many of the most critical data comes from satellites, often in unique orbits far from Earth. In this presentation, I will describe some of the more important sources and types of data that feed into the operational alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms. Included will be a discussion of some of the new space weather forecast models and the data challenges that they bring forward.

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2013-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions.

PubMed

Teklehaimanot, Hailay D; Schwartz, Joel; Teklehaimanot, Awash; Lipsitch, Marc

2004-11-19

Timely and accurate information about the onset of malaria epidemics is essential for effective control activities in epidemic-prone regions. Early warning methods that provide earlier alerts (usually by the use of weather variables) may permit control measures to interrupt transmission earlier in the epidemic, perhaps at the expense of some level of accuracy. Expected case numbers were modeled using a Poisson regression with lagged weather factors in a 4th-degree polynomial distributed lag model. For each week, the numbers of malaria cases were predicted using coefficients obtained using all years except that for which the prediction was being made. The effectiveness of alerts generated by the prediction system was compared against that of alerts based on observed cases. The usefulness of the prediction system was evaluated in cold and hot districts. The system predicts the overall pattern of cases well, yet underestimates the height of the largest peaks. Relative to alerts triggered by observed cases, the alerts triggered by the predicted number of cases performed slightly worse, within 5% of the detection system. The prediction-based alerts were able to prevent 10-25% more cases at a given sensitivity in cold districts than in hot ones. The prediction of malaria cases using lagged weather performed well in identifying periods of increased malaria cases. Weather-derived predictions identified epidemics with reasonable accuracy and better timeliness than early detection systems; therefore, the prediction of malarial epidemics using weather is a plausible alternative to early detection systems.

Developing an Early Warning System for Machu Picchu Pueblo, Peru.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony

2010-05-01

The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, is linked to Ollantaytambo and Cusco by rail and serves as the main station for the 400,000+ tourists visiting Machu Picchu. Due to the tourist industry the town grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Today, due to the limited availability of low-lying ground, construction is occurring higher up on the unstable valley slopes. The town is located at 2000 m asl while the surrounding peaks rise to over 4000 m asl. Slopes range from < 10° on the valley floor to > 70° in the surrounding granite mountains. The town has grown on the downstream right bank of the Vilcanota River, at the confluence of the Alcamayo and the Aguas Calientes Rivers. Broadly, a dry winter season runs from May to August with a rainy summer season running from October to March. The rainy months provide around 80% of the annual rainfall average, which ranges from 1,600 to 2,300 mm. Seasonal temperature variations are considered modest. An assessment of the geohazards in and around the town has been undertaken. Those of particular concern to the town are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. To improve the existing municipal warning system a prototype early warning system incorporating suitable technologies that could monitor weather, river flow and slope satability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing most components to be installed, maintained, swapped, salvaged, repaired and/or replaced by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was deployed and evaluated. Most of the candidate technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

Marshall Installs Receiving Antenna for Next-Generation Weather Satellites

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-16

Technicians assemble a hefty segment of a new antenna system in this 30-second time-lapse video captured Dec. 16 at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. The high-performance ground station is designed to receive meteorological and space weather data from instruments flown on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's new, game-changing Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite series. The six-meter dish antenna near Building 4316 expands the capacity of Marshall’s Earth Science Office to use real-time GOES observations for studies of Earth and to deliver new forecasting, warning and disaster response tools to partners around the world. (NASA/MSFC)

NPP Satellite Launch

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-10-28

NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver, left, watches the launch of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project (NPP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Satellite Operations Center on Friday, Oct. 28, 2011 in Suitland, Md. U.S Congresswoman Donna Edwards, D-Md., is seen next to Garver. NPP is a joint venture between NASA and NOAA, and is the nation's newest Earth-observing satellite, which will provide data on climate change science, allow for accurate weather forecasts and advance warning for severe weather. NPP was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Photo Credit: (NASA/Carla Cioffi)

NPP Satellite Launch

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-10-28

Dr. Kathy Sullivan, center, Deputy Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and former NASA astronaut is interviewed by a local television network at NOAA's Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Md. after the successful launch of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project (NPP) on Friday, Oct. 28, 2011. NPP is a joint venture between NASA and NOAA, and is the nation's newest Earth-observing satellite, which will provide data on climate change science, allow for accurate weather forecasts and advance warning for severe weather. NPP was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Photo Credit: (NASA/Carla Cioffi)

Dual-Polarization Observations of Precipitation: State of the Art in Operational and Research Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, C. V.; Moisseev, D. N.; Baldini, L.; Bechini, R.; Cremonini, R.; Wolff, D. B.; Petersen, W. A.; Junyent, F.; Chen, H.; Beauchamp, R.

2016-12-01

Dual-polarization weather radars have been widely used for rainfall measurement applications and studies of the microphysical characteristics of precipitation. Ground-based, dual-polarization radar systems form the cornerstones of national severe weather warning and forecasting infrastructure in many developed countries. As a result of the improved performance of dual-polarization radars for these applications, large scale dual-polarization upgrades are being planned for India and China. In addition to national forecast and warning operations, dual-polarization radars have also been used for satellite ground validation activities. The operational Dual-Polarization radars in the US are mostly S band systems whereas in Europe are mostly C band systems. In addition a third class of systems is emerging in urban regions where networks of X band systems are being deployed operationally. There are successful networks planned or already deployed in big cities such as Dallas Fort Worth, Tokyo or Beijing. These X band networks are developing their own operational domain. In summary a large infrastructure in terms of user specified products and dual use of operational research applications are also emerging in these systems. This paper will discuss some of the innovative uses of the operational dual-polarization radar networks for research purposes, with references to calibration, hydrometeor classification and quantitative precipitation estimation. Additional application to the study of precipitation processes will also be discussed.

Economic Impact of Fire Weather Forecasts

Treesearch

Don Gunasekera; Graham Mills; Mark Williams

2006-01-01

Southeastern Australia, where the State of Victoria is located is regarded as one of the most fire prone areas in the world. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides fire weather services in Victoria as part of a national framework for the provision of such services. These services range from fire weather warnings to special forecasts for hazard reduction burns....

Doppler Radar National Mosaic - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings

Forecasts - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

Observations - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

National Maps - Pacific - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, N.; Wu, Y.; Chen, D.; Kuo, K.; Shin, T.

2009-12-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) system has already been developed and tested in Taiwan for more than ten years. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a virtual sub-network (VSN) system based on regional early warning approach was utilized at the first attempt. In order to shorten the processing time, seismic waveforms in a 10-sec time window starting from the first P-wave arrival time at the nearest station are used to determine the hypocenter and earthquake magnitude which is dubbed ML10. Since 2001, this EEW system has responded to a total of 255 events with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred inland or off the coast of Taiwan. The system is capable of issuing an earthquake report within 20 sec of its occurrence with good magnitude estimations for events up to magnitude 6.5. This will provide early warning for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicentre. In the latest development, a new prototype EEW system based on P-wave method was developed. Instead of ML10, we adopt the “Pd magnitude”, MPd, as our magnitude indicator in the new system. Pd is defined as the peak amplitude of the initial P-wave displacement. In the previous studies, by analyzing the Pd attenuation relationship with earthquake magnitudes, Pd was proved to be a good magnitude estimator for EEW purpose. Therefore, we adopt the Pd magnitude in developing our next generation EEW system. The new system is designed and constructed based on the Central Weather Bureau Seismographic Network (CWBSN). The CWBSN is a real-time seismographic network with more than one hundred digital telemetered seismic stations distributed over the entire Taiwan. Currently, there are three types of seismic instruments installed at the stations, either co-site or separately installed, including short-period seismographs, accelerometers, and broadband instruments. For the need of integral data processing, we use the Earthworm system as a common platform to integrate all real-time signals. In the process, strong-motion and broadband signals are used for automatic P-wave arrival time and Pd determination. However, short-period signals are only used for P-wave arrival time picking. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future.

Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norton, C. C.

1985-01-01

A final progress report is presented on the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS). The primary purpose of the CSIS is to demonstrate and evaluate real time interactive computerized data collection, interpretation and display techniques as applied to severe weather forecasting. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storm forecasting and warning systems are outlined. The positive impact that CSIS has had on the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is discussed. The benefits of interactive processing systems on the forecasting ability of the NSSFC are described.

Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

2012-04-01

In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance model COUP). The data are presented in a web- and GIS-based system with daily nationwide maps showing the meteorological and hydrological conditions for the present and the near future from quantitative weather prognosis. In addition a division of the country in homogenous debris flow-prone regions is also under progress based on geomorfological, topographic parameters and loose quaternary deposits distribution. Threshold-levels are being investigated by using statistical analyses of historical debris flows events and measured hydro-meteorological parameters. The debris flow early warning system is currently being tested and is expected to be operational in 2013. Final products will be warning messages and a map showing the different hazard levels, from low to high, indicating the landslide probability and the type of expected damages in a certain area. Many activities are realized in strong collaboration with the road and railway authorities, the geological survey and private consultant companies.

Evaluating impacts of different longitudinal driver assistance systems on reducing multi-vehicle rear-end crashes during small-scale inclement weather.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Xing, Lu; Wang, Wei; Wang, Hao; Dong, Changyin; Liu, Shanwen

2017-10-01

Multi-vehicle rear-end (MVRE) crashes during small-scale inclement (SSI) weather cause high fatality rates on freeways, which cannot be solved by traditional speed limit strategies. This study aimed to reduce MVRE crash risks during SSI weather using different longitudinal driver assistance systems (LDAS). The impact factors on MVRE crashes during SSI weather were firstly analyzed. Then, four LDAS, including Forward collision warning (FCW), Autonomous emergency braking (AEB), Adaptive cruise control (ACC) and Cooperative ACC (CACC), were modeled based on a unified platform, the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM). Simulation experiments were designed and a large number of simulations were then conducted to evaluate safety effects of different LDAS. Results indicate that the FCW and ACC system have poor performance on reducing MVRE crashes during SSI weather. The slight improvement of sight distance of FCW and the limitation of perception-reaction time of ACC lead the failure of avoiding MVRE crashes in most scenarios. The AEB system has the better effect due to automatic perception and reaction, as well as performing the full brake when encountering SSI weather. The CACC system has the best performance because wireless communication provides a larger sight distance and a shorter time delay at the sub-second level. Sensitivity analyses also indicated that the larger number of vehicles and speed changes after encountering SSI weather have negative impacts on safety performances. Results of this study provide useful information for accident prevention during SSI weather. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design and installation of a Prototype Geohazard Monitoring System near Machu Picchu, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulmer, M. H.; Farquhar, T.

2010-09-01

The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, serves the >700 000 tourists visiting Machu Picchu annually. It has grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Due to the limited low-lying ground, construction is occurring on the unstable valley slopes. Slopes range from <10° on the valley floor to >70° in the surrounding mountains. The town has grown on a delta formed at the confluence of the Alcamayo, Aguas Calientes and Vilcanota Rivers. Geohazards in and around the town of particular concern are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. A prototype early warning system that could monitor weather, river flow and slope stability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing components to be installed, maintained, salvaged, and repaired by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was evaluated. Most of the technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

2016-02-01

The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

2017-04-01

Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53% probability of exceeding the Medium Level Alert in two days. Rainfall stations upstream of the West Rapti catchment recorded heavy rainfall on 26 July, and localized forecasts from the probabilistic model at 8 am suggested that the water level would cross a pre-determined warning level in the next 3 hours. The Flood Forecasting Section at DHM issued a flood advisory, and disseminated SMS flood alerts to more than 13,000 at-risk people residing along the floodplains. Water levels crossed the danger threshold (5.4 meters) at 11 am, peaking at 8.15 meters at 10 pm. Extension of the warning lead time from probabilistic forecasts was significant in minimising the risk to lives and livelihoods as communities gained extra time to prepare, evacuate and respond. Likewise, longer timescale forecasts from GLoFAS could be potentially linked with no-regret early actions leading to improved preparedness and emergency response. These forecasting tools have contributed to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of existing community based systems, increasing the lead time for response. Nevertheless, extensive work is required on appropriate ways to interpret and disseminate probabilistic forecasts having longer (2-14 days) and shorter (3-5 hours) time horizon for operational deployment as there are numerous uncertainties associated with predictions.

NOAA/National Weather Service Support in Response to the Threat of Debris Flows from the 2009 Station Fire in Los Angeles County: Lessons Learned in Hazard Communications and Public Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, M.; Laber, J. L.; Boldt, E.

2010-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a prototype debris flow early warning system for Southern California. The system uses USGS-defined rainfall rate thresholds for debris flows and burn area hazard maps to protect interests in and near burn areas of damaging and potentially deadly debris flows. Although common throughout Southern California, as witnessed by the December 25, 2003 storm in which sixteen people were swept to their deaths by debris flows generated from a recent burn area near Devore, debris flows are commonly misunderstood by the public. They are often perceived as rare events, are difficult to warn for with sufficient lead time, and present unique challenges when communicating proper calls to action to best save lives and property. Many improvements to the system have been realized since the project’s inception in 2005, including using more refined rainfall rate thresholds, use of burn area hazard maps, and the establishment of a tiered system to categorize the potential severity of flash floods and debris flows. These efforts have collectively resulted in a reduction of warning false alarms. However, the massive 400,000 hectare 2009 Station burn area in the Angeles National Forest of Los Angeles County has created numerous challenges to the early warning system. The geology of the area burned is highly susceptible to debris flows, due in part to the burn severity, soil types and steep slopes. Most importantly, the burn area is adjacent to and uphill of the highly populated lower foothills of the San Fernando Valley. NOAA/NWS and the USGS have thus worked closely with local response and preparedness agencies to analyze and communicate the threat and assist in developing a unified command response plan in preparation for flash flood and debris flows from this burn area. The early warning system was put to the ultimate test on February 6, 2010 when intense rainfall over the burn area produced very damaging but fortunately nonfatal flash flooding and debris flows. Unfortunately public and local agency response to NWS forecasts, watches, and warnings issued for this event was minimal. Possible causes of, and actions needed to improve upon, this minimal response are examined, including 1) complacency due to previous watch and warning false alarms, 2) underestimating the hazard threat due to local residents having not personally experienced a severe debris flow event in recent history if ever, 3) misinterpretation of NWS point precipitation forecasts and current limits of predictability related to forecasting specific locations and amounts of intense rainfall beyond 12-24 hours, 4) the challenges of ensuring NWS information is consistently received and interpreted among the multiple agencies and jurisdictions of the unified command, and 5) the likelihood that most people did not hear NWS warnings due to the event taking place late at night. Also examined are proper calls to action to protect life and property at a time when evacuations may put people in harm's way.

An Early-Warning System for Volcanic Ash Dispersal: The MAFALDA Procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

2006-12-01

Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash is a fundamental goal in order to mitigate its potential impact on urbanized areas and transport routes surrounding explosive volcanoes. To this aim we developed an early- warning procedure named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere). Such tool is able to quantitatively forecast the atmospheric concentration of ash as well as the ground deposition as a function of time over a 3D spatial domain.\\The main features of MAFALDA are: (1) the use of the hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian code VOL-CALPUFF able to describe both the rising column phase and the atmospheric dispersal as a function of weather conditions, (2) the use of high-resolution weather forecasting data, (3) the short execution time that allows to analyse a set of scenarios and (4) the web-based CGI software application (written in Perl programming language) that shows the results in a standard graphical web interface and makes it suitable as an early-warning system during volcanic crises.\\MAFALDA is composed by a computational part that simulates the ash cloud dynamics and a graphical interface for visualizing the modelling results. The computational part includes the codes for elaborating the meteorological data, the dispersal code and the post-processing programs. These produces hourly 2D maps of aerial ash concentration at several vertical levels, extension of "threat" area on air and 2D maps of ash deposit on the ground, in addition to graphs of hourly variations of column height.\\The processed results are available on the web by the graphical interface and the users can choose, by drop-down menu, which data to visualize. \\A first partial application of the procedure has been carried out for Mt. Etna (Italy). In this case, the procedure simulates four volcanological scenarios characterized by different plume intensities and uses 48-hrs weather forecasting data with a resolution of 7 km provided by the Italian Air Force.

Valley Fever: Earth Observations for Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprigg, W. A.

2012-12-01

Advances in satellite Earth observation systems, numerical weather prediction, and dust storm modeling yield new tools for public health warnings, advisories and epidemiology of illnesses associated with airborne desert dust. Valley Fever, endemic from California through the US/Mexico border region into Central and South America, is triggered by inhalation of soil-dwelling fungal spores. The path from fungal growth to airborne threat depends on environmental conditions observable from satellite. And space-based sensors provide initial conditions for dust storm forecasts and baselines for the epidemiology of Valley Fever and other dust-borne aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular disease. A new Pan-American Center for the World Meteorological Organization Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System creates an opportunity to advance Earth science applications in public health.

Integration of Thermal Indoor Conditions into Operational Heat Health Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppe, C.; Becker, P.; Pfafferott, J.

2009-09-01

The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe with altogether 35,000 to 50,000 deaths in Europe, several thousands of which occurred in Germany, has clearly pointed out the danger arising from long periods with high heat load. As a consequence, Germany, as many other European countries, has started to implement a Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). The German HHWS is based on the ‘Perceived Temperature'. The 'Perceived Temperature' is determined through a heat budget model of the human organism which includes the main thermophysiologically relevant mechanisms of heat exchange with the atmosphere. The most important meteorological ambience parameters included in the model are air temperature, humidity, wind speed and radiation fluxes in the short-wave and long-wave ranges. In addition to using a heat budget model for the assessment of the thermal load, the German HHWS also takes into account that the human body reacts in different ways to its thermal environment due to physiological adaptation (short-term acclimatisation) and short-term behavioural adaptation. The restriction of such an approach, like the majority of approaches used to issue heat warnings, is that the threshold for a warning is generally derived from meteorological observations and that warnings are issued on the basis of weather forecasts. Both, the observed data and the weather forecasts are only available for outside conditions. The group of people who are most at risk of suffering from a heat wave, however, are the elderly and frail who mainly stay inside. The indoor situation, which varies largely from the conditions outside, is not taken into account by most of the warning systems. To overcome this limitation the DWD, in co-operation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, has developed a model which simulates the thermal conditions in the indoor environment. As air-conditioning in private housing in Germany is not very common, the thermal indoor conditions depend on the outside conditions, on the building characteristics, and on the inhabitants' behaviour. The thermal building simulation model estimates the indoor heat load based of the predicted meteorological outside conditions by calculating the operative indoor temperature. The building types prevailing in Germany are quite heterogeneous. It was therefore decided to use for the thermal simulation a so-called "realistic worst-case” building type. In addition, a differentiation is made between two types of user behaviour: the active user opens the windows during the cold hours of the day and uses shading devices whereas the passive user does nothing to keep the heat outside. Since 2007, the DWD has been using the simulation of the indoor thermal conditions as an additional source of information for heat warnings. The information on the indoor conditions has proved very valuable for the decision whether to issue a heat warning or not.

Description and status of NASA-LeRC/DOE photovoltaic applications systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratajczak, A. F.

1978-01-01

Designed, fabricated and installed were 16 geographically dispersed photovoltaic systems. These systems are powering a refrigerator, highway warning sign, forest lookout towers, remote weather stations, a water chiller at a visitor center, and insect survey traps. Each of these systems is described in terms of load requirements, solar array and battery size, and instrumentation and controls. Operational experience is described and present status is given for each system. The P/V power systems have proven to be highly reliable with almost no problems with modules and very few problems overall.

Introduction to the JAWS Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarthy, John

1987-01-01

The JAWS Project is the Joint Airport Weather Studies project conceived in 1980 jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Univ. of Chicago. The objectives of the program are threefold: (1) Basic scientific characterization of the microbursts and the statistics of microbursts occurrence; (2) Detection and warning, using the Low Level Wind Shear Alert System (LLWSAS) operation and performance; and (3) Doppler radar and airborne systems. These goals and the operation of the JAWS system in general are discussed in detail.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

Predictability and extended-range prognosis in natural hazard risk mitigation process: A case study over west Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsangouras, Ioannis T.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.

2014-05-01

Natural hazards pose an increasing threat to society and new innovative techniques or methodologies are necessary to be developed, in order to enhance the risk mitigation process in nowadays. It is commonly accepted that disaster risk reduction is a vital key for future successful economic and social development. The systematic improvement accuracy of extended-range prognosis products, relating with monthly and seasonal predictability, introduced them as a new essential link in risk mitigation procedure. Aiming at decreasing the risk, this paper presents the use of seasonal and monthly forecasting process that was tested over west Greece from September to December, 2013. During that season significant severe weather events occurred, causing significant impact to the local society (severe storms/rainfalls, hail, flash floods, etc). Seasonal and monthly forecasting products from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) depicted, with probabilities stratified by terciles, areas of Greece where significant weather may occur. As atmospheric natural hazard early warning systems are able to deliver warnings up to 72 hours in advance, this study illustrates that extended-range prognosis could be introduced as a new technique in risk mitigation. Seasonal and monthly forecast products could highlight extended areas where severe weather events may occur in one month lead time. In addition, a risk mitigation procedure, that extended prognosis products are adopted, is also presented providing useful time to preparedness process at regional administration level.

Streamlining Tsunami Messages (e.g., Warnings) of the US National Tsunami Warning Center, Palmer, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.; Johnston, D. M.

2016-12-01

Spurred in part by world-wide interest in improving warning messaging for and response to tsunamis in the wake of several catastrophic tsunamis since 2004 and growing interest at the US National Weather Service (NWS) to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program, the NWS Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii have made great progress toward enhancing tsunami messages. These include numerous products, among them being Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Advisories and Tsunami Watches. Beginning in 2010 we have worked with US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Warning Coordination and Mitigation and Education Subcommittee members; Tsunami Program administrators; and NWS Weather Forecast Officers to conduct a series of focus group meetings with stakeholders in coastal areas of Alaska, American Samoa, California, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, US Virgin Islands and Washington to understand end-user perceptions of existing messages and their existing needs in message products. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a Tsunami Warning Message Metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order, Formatting, and Receiver Characteristics. A sample message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met, whether the message is a full length or short message. Incrementally, this work contributed to revisions in the format, content and style of message products issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC). Since that time, interest in short warning messages has continued to increase and in May 2016 the NTWC began efforts to revise message products to take advantage of recent NWS policy changes allowing use of mixed-case text format and expanded punctuation, a practice which the NWS first started in 2010. Here we describe our application of a modification of the warning message metric to develop new streamlined messages using mixed-case text. These messages reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness.

Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepek, A.; Wijnant, I. L.; van der Schrier, G.; van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

2012-06-01

In this study we present an alternative wind gust warning guideline for Meteoalarm, the severe weather warning website for Europe. There are unrealistically large differences in levels and issuing frequencies of all warning levels currently in use between neighbouring Meteoalarm countries. This study provides a guide for the Meteoalarm community to review their wind gust warning thresholds. A more uniform warning system is achieved by using one pan-European return period per warning level. The associated return values will be different throughout Europe because they depend on local climate conditions, but they will not change abruptly at country borders as is currently the case for the thresholds. As return values are a measure of the possible danger of an event and its impact on society, they form an ideal basis for a warning system. Validated wind gust measurements from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, http://www.ecad.eu) were used to calculate return values of the annual maximum wind gust. The current thresholds are compared with return values for 3 different return periods: 10 times a year return periods for yellow warnings, 2 yr periods for orange and 5 yr periods for red warnings. So far 10 countries provide wind gust data to ECA&D. Due to the ECA&D completeness requirements and the fact that some countries provided too few stations to be representative for that country, medians of the return values of annual maximum wind gust could be calculated for 6 of the 10 countries. Alternative guideline thresholds are presented for Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic and Spain and the need to distinguish between coastal, inland and mountainous regions is demonstrated. The new thresholds based on uniform return periods differ significantly from the current ones, particularly for coastal and mountainous areas. We are aware of other, sometimes binding factors (e.g. laws) that prevent participating counties from implementing this climatology based warning system.

Automated information-analytical system for thunderstorm monitoring and early warning alarms using modern physical sensors and information technologies with elements of artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boldyreff, Anton S.; Bespalov, Dmitry A.; Adzhiev, Anatoly Kh.

2017-05-01

Methods of artificial intelligence are a good solution for weather phenomena forecasting. They allow to process a large amount of diverse data. Recirculation Neural Networks is implemented in the paper for the system of thunderstorm events prediction. Large amounts of experimental data from lightning sensors and electric field mills networks are received and analyzed. The average recognition accuracy of sensor signals is calculated. It is shown that Recirculation Neural Networks is a promising solution in the forecasting of thunderstorms and weather phenomena, characterized by the high efficiency of the recognition elements of the sensor signals, allows to compress images and highlight their characteristic features for subsequent recognition.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Jim Roberts, a scientist with the Earth System Research Laboratory's Office of Atmospheric Research for NOAA, left, and Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, speak to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

A.J. Sandora, Lockheed Martin's GOES-R Series Mechanical Operations Assembly, Test and Launch Operations (ATLO) manager, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Built by Lockheed Martin Space Systems of Littleton, Colorado, the spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Storm-based Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probabilities and Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calhoun, K. M.; Meyer, T.; Kingfield, D.

2017-12-01

A new cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning probability algorithm has been developed using machine-learning methods. With storm-based inputs of Earth Networks' in-cloud lightning, Vaisala's CG lightning, multi-radar/multi-sensor (MRMS) radar derived products including the Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) and Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL), and near storm environmental data including lapse rate and CAPE, a random forest algorithm was trained to produce probabilities of CG lightning up to one-hour in advance. As part of the Prototype Probabilistic Hazard Information experiment in the Hazardous Weather Testbed in 2016 and 2017, National Weather Service forecasters were asked to use this CG lightning probability guidance to create rapidly updating probability grids and warnings for the threat of CG lightning for 0-60 minutes. The output from forecasters was shared with end-users, including emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists, as part of an integrated warning team.

Using Flow Charts to Visualize the Decision-Making Process in Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aung, M. T. Y.; Myat, T.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Ngwira, C.; Damas, M. C.

2016-12-01

Our society today relies heavily on technological systems such as satellites, navigation systems, power grids and aviation. These systems are very sensitive to space weather disturbances. When Earth-directed space weather driven by the Sun arrives at the Earth, it causes changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. Strong disturbances in the magnetosphere of the Earth are responsible for geomagnetic storms that can last from hours to days depending on strength of storms. Geomagnetic storms can severely impact critical infrastructure on Earth, such as the electric power grid, and Solar Energetic Particles that can endanger life in outer space. How can we lessen these adverse effects? They can be lessened through the early warning signals sent by space weather forecasters before CME or high-speed stream arrives. A space weather forecaster's duty is to send predicted notifications to high-tech industries and NASA missions so that they could take extra measures for protection. NASA space weather forecasters make prediction decisions by following certain steps and processes from the time an event occurs at the sun all the way to the impact locations. However, there has never been a tool that helps these forecasters visualize the decision process until now. A flow chart is created to help forecasters visualize the decision process. This flow chart provides basic knowledge of space weather and can be used to train future space weather forecasters. It also helps to cut down the training period and increase consistency in forecasting. The flow chart is also a great reference for people who are already familiar with space weather.

Satellite Video Shows Movement of Major U.S. Winter Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-12

A new NASA video of NOAA's GOES satellite imagery shows three days of movement of the massive winter storm that stretches from the southern U.S. to the northeast. Visible and infrared imagery from NOAA's GOES-East or GOES-13 satellite from Feb. 10 at 1815 UTC/1:15 p.m. EST to Feb. 12 to 1845 UTC/1:45 p.m. EST were compiled into a video made by NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. In the video, viewers can see the development and movement of the clouds associated with the progression of the frontal system and related low pressure areas that make up the massive storm. The video also shows the snow covered ground over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley that stretches to northern New England. The clouds and fallen snow data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. On February 12 at 10 a.m. EST, NOAA's National Weather Service or NWS continued to issue watches and warnings from Texas to New England. Specifically, NWS cited Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories were in effect from eastern Texas eastward across the interior section of southeastern U.S. states and across much of the eastern seaboard including the Appalachians. Winter storm watches are in effect for portions of northern New England as well as along the western slopes of northern and central Appalachians. For updates on local forecasts, watches and warnings, visit NOAA's www.weather.gov webpage. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center or WPC noted the storm is expected to bring "freezing rain spreading into the Carolinas, significant snow accumulations are expected in the interior Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Thursday and ice storm warnings and freezing rain advisories are in effect across much of central Georgia. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's WPC website; www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Learning Team Review 2016-0002 Parking Lot Event 2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilburn, Dianne Williams; Bitteker, Leo John; Brooks, Melynda Louise

The purpose of a Learning Team is to transfer and communicate the information into operational feedback and improvement. We want to pay attention to the small things that go wrong because they are often early warning signals and may provide insight into the health of the whole system. The incident involved the collision of a van with a forklift having raised tines in rainy, overcast weather.

Using C-Band Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures to Improve Convective Wind Forecasting at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amiot, Corey G.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Roeder, William P.; McNamara, Todd M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2017-01-01

The United States Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) is the organization responsible for monitoring atmospheric conditions at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) and issuing warnings for hazardous weather conditions when the need arises. One such warning is issued for convective wind events, for which lead times of 30 and 60 minutes are desired for events with peak wind gusts of 35 knots or greater (i.e., Threshold-1) and 50 knots or greater (i.e., Threshold-2), respectively (Roeder et al. 2014).

Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

2017-04-01

During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena addressed and variables to be considered for correlations. The characteristics of LEWSs at local scale are strongly affected by numerous constraints and factors, from time to time different, related to the characteristics of the problem they address. Monitoring measures, variables and correlation laws considered for the design and employment of local LEWSs, strongly depends on the type of landslide to be addressed. On the other hand, territorial LEWSs mainly deals with rainfall-induced landslides characterized by fast slope movement. These systems have become a risk management approach, employed worldwide over areas of relevant extension. Before 2005 only few experiences of LEWSs at a regional scale were carried out, such as in: Hong Kong, China; Zhejiang Province, China; San Francisco Bay, California, USA; Appalachians, USA; Oregon, USA; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Since the beginning of the XXI century, increased knowledge on rainfall-landslide correlations and upgraded technologies in weather forecast have promoted the development and improvement of territorial LEWSs around the world.

ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE Marine Forecast greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS VIA ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE NOAA broadcasts offshore forecasts, nearshore forecasts and storm warnings on marine VHF channels

Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

PubMed

Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

2013-06-27

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

Observations of Total Lightning Associated with Severe Convection During the Wet Season in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharp, D.; Williams, E.; Weber, M.; Goodman, Steven J.; Raghavan, R.; Matlin, A.; Boldi, B.

1998-01-01

This paper will discuss findings of a collaborative lightning research project between National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the National Weather Service office In Melbourne Florida. In August 1996, NWS/MLB received a workstation which incorporates data from the KMLB WSR-88D, Cloud to Ground (CG) stroke data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and 3D volumetric lightning data collected from the Kennedy Space Centers' Lightning Detection And Ranging (LDAR) lightning system. The two primary objectives of this lightning workstation, called Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (USDAD), are to: observe how total lightning relates to severe convective storm morphology over central Florida, and compare ground based total lightning data (LDAR) to a satellite based lightning detection system. This presentation will focus on objective #1. The LISDAD system continuously displays CG and total lighting activity overlaid on top of the KMLB composite reflectivity product. This allows forecasters to monitor total lightning activity associated with convective cells occurring over the central Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. The LISDAD system also keeps track of the amount of total lightning data, and associated KMLB radar products with individual convective cells occurring over the region. By clicking on an individual cell, a history table displays flash rate information (CG and total lightning) in one minute increments, along with radar parameter trends (echo tops, maximum dBz and height of maximum dBz) every 5 minutes. This history table Is updated continuously, without user intervention, as long as the cell is identified. Reviewing data collected during the 1997 wet season (21 cases) revealed that storms which produced severe weather (hall greater or = 0.75 in. or wind damage) typically showed a rapid rise In total lightning prior to the onset of severe weather. On average, flash rate increases of 25 FPM per minute over a time scale of approximately 5 minutes were common. These pulse severe storms typically reached values of 150 to 200 FPM with some cells exceeding 400 FPM. One finding which could have a direct application to the warning process is that the rapid increase in lightning typically occurred in advance of the warning issuance time. Comparisons between the ending time of the rapid rate increase and the time of when the warning was issued by NWS/MLB meteorologist exhibited a lead time of 8 minutes. It is conceivable that if close monitoring of the LISDAD system by operational meteorologist is routinely performed, warnings for pulse severe storms could be issued up to 4 to 6 minutes earlier than what is issued currently.

Using Forecast and Observed Weather Data to Assess Performance of Forecast Products in Identifying Heat Waves and Estimating Heat Wave Effects on Mortality

PubMed Central

Chen, Yeh-Hsin; Schwartz, Joel D.; Rood, Richard B.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Background: Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. Objective: We estimated heat–mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. Methods: We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with heat waves defined as ≥ 2 days of daily mean AT ≥ 95th percentile of warm-season average) from weather observations and six different forecast products. We used Poisson regression with and without adjustment for ozone and/or PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) to estimate and compare associations of daily all-cause mortality with observed and predicted AT and heat wave days. Results: The 1-day-ahead forecast of a local operational product, Revised Digital Forecast, had about half the number of false positives compared with all other forecasts. On average, controlling for heat waves, days with observed AT = 25.3°C were associated with 3.5% higher mortality (95% CI: –1.6, 8.8%) than days with AT = 8.5°C. Observed heat wave days were associated with 6.2% higher mortality (95% CI: –0.4, 13.2%) than non–heat wave days. The accuracy of predictions varied, but associations between mortality and forecast heat generally tended to overestimate heat effects, whereas associations with forecast heat waves tended to underestimate heat wave effects, relative to associations based on observed weather metrics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that incorporating knowledge of local conditions may improve the accuracy of predictions used to activate heat wave and health warning systems. Citation: Zhang K, Chen YH, Schwartz JD, Rood RB, O’Neill MS. 2014. Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 122:912–918; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306858 PMID:24833618

Influence of warning information changes on emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heisterkamp, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Glade, Thomas; Tetzlaff, Gerd

2014-05-01

Mitigation and risk reduction of natural hazards is significantly related to the possibility of predicting the actual event. Some hazards can already be forecasted several days in advance. For these hazards, early warning systems have been developed, installed and improved over the years. The formation of winter storms for example can be recognized up to one week before they pass through Central Europe. This relative long early warning time has the advantage that forecasters can concretise the warnings over time. Therefore, warnings can even be adapted to alternating conditions within the process, the observation or changes in its modelling. Emergency managers are one group of warning recipients in the civil protection sector. They have to prepare or initiate prevention or response measures at a specific point of time, depending on the required lead time of the referring actions. At this point of time already, the forecast and its equivalent warning, has to be assumed as a stage of reality, hence the decision-makers have to come to a conclusion. These decisions are based on spatial and temporal knowledge of the forecasted event and the consequential situation of risk. With incoming warning updates, the detailed status of information is permanently being alternated. Consequently, decisions can be influenced by the development of the warning situation and the inherent tendency before a certain point of time. They can also be adapted to updates later on, according to the changing 'decision reality'. The influence of these dynamic hazard situations on operational planning and response by emergency managers is investigated in case studies on winter storms for Berlin, Germany. Therefore, the issued warnings by the weather service and data of operation of Berlin Fire Brigades are analysed and compared. This presentation shows and discusses first results.

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

2015-04-01

Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

Preliminary Cost Benefit Assessment of Systems for Detection of Hazardous Weather. Volume I,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-01

not be sufficient for adequate stream flow forecasting , it has important potential for real - time flash flood warning. This was illustrated by the 1977...provide a finer spatial resolution of the gridded data. See Table 9. 42 The results of a demonstration of the real - time capabilities of a radar-man system ...detailed real time measurement capabilities and scope for quantitative forecasting is most likely to provide the degree of lead time required if maximum

NGSLR Safety Handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGarry, Jan

2015-01-01

NASA's Next Generation Satellite Laser Ranging (NGSLR) station is the prototype for NASA's Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) systems which will be deployed around the world in the coming decade. The NGSLR system will be an autonomous, photon-counting SLR station with an expected absolute range accuracy of better than one centimeter and a normal point (time-averaged) range precision better than one millimeter. The system provides continuous (weather permitting), 24 hour tracking coverage to an existing constellation of approximately two dozen artificial satellites equipped with passive retroreflector arrays, using pulsed, 532 nm, class IV laser systems. Current details on the approved laser systems can be found in the Appendix 1 of this document. This safety plan addresses the potential hazards to emitted laser radiation, which can occur both inside and outside the shelter. Hazards within the shelter are mitigated through posted warning signs, activated warning lights, procedural controls, personal protective equipment (PPE), laser curtains, beam blocking systems, interlock controls, pre-configured laser control settings, and other controls discussed in this document. Since the NGSLR is a satellite tracking system, laser hazards exist outside the shelter to personnel on the shelter roof and to passing aircraft. Potential exposure to personnel outside the system is mitigated through the use of posted warning signs, access control, procedural controls, a stairwell interlock, beam attenuation/blocking devices, and a radar based aircraft detection system.

A study of the connection between TV meteorologists and their viewers during severe weather broadcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Daniel M.

After the devastating tornadoes in Joplin, MO and in the Deep South in 2011, it seemed appropriate to look at the impact that broadcast meteorologists (and their TV coverage) have on their viewers during severe weather events. Broadcast meteorologists play a vital role in the severe weather warning process and in persuading the public to take the appropriate actions during severe weather. This research was done by developing a survey that addressed the following questions: 1) Is the media doing everything they can persuade viewers to take shelter and protect themselves and their property?; 2) What do you do when a tornado warning is issued?; 3) Is there anything broadcast meteorologists can do or say that will make you take immediate action during severe weather? The survey was disseminated through television markets in Missouri. The goal of this research was to find new, improved and different ways of "connecting" with viewing during severe weather coverage. After looking at the results, we want to see if there are specific words, images or anything else a broadcaster can do that will trigger a response by viewers to take cover. It is my hope the results and analyses from this survey will provide broadcast meteorologists with new and improved techniques to connect with the public and to assist them in making an informed decision during severe weather events.

On the Development of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Networks: Practical experiences from North and Central America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Braun, John; Meertens, Charles; Mattioli, Glen; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

2015-04-01

The GAGE facility, managed by UNAVCO, maintains and operates about 1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America as part of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and the Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network (COCONet). UNAVCO has upgraded about 450 stations in these networks to real-time and high-rate (RT-GNSS) and included surface meteorological instruments. The majority of these streaming stations are part of the PBO but also include approximately 50 RT-GNSS stations in the Caribbean and Central American region as part of the COCONet and TLALOCNet projects. Based on community input UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of these resources to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources, extreme weather events such as hurricanes and storms, and space weather. The RT-GNSS networks also have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize geophysical events, provide early warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development with university, commercial, non-profit and government collaboration on national and international scales include earthquake and tsunami early warning systems and near real-time tropospheric modeling of hurricanes and precipitable water vapor estimate assimilation. Using tsunami early warning as an example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation which informs the initial modeled tsunami. The networks can then can also provide direct measurements of the tsunami wave heights and propagation by tracking the associated ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as the waves approaches the shoreline. These GNSS based constraints can refine the tsunami and inundation models and potentially mitigate hazards. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Our operational system has multiple communities that use and depend on a Pan-Pacific real-time open data set. The ability to merge existing data sets and user communities, seismic and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to meta-data, appropriate data formats, data quality assessment in real-time and specific issues related to using these products in operational forecasting. Additional issues related to data access across national borders and cognizant government sanctioned "early warning" agencies, some committed to specific technologies, methodologies, internal structure and further constrained by data policies make a truly operational system an on-going work in progress. We present a short history of evolving a very large and expensive RT-GNSS network originally designed to answer specific long term scientific questions about structure and evolution of North American plate boundaries into a much needed national hazard system while continuing to serve our core community in long term scientific studies. Out primary focus in this presentation is an analysis of our current goals and impediments to achieving these broader objectives.

Intravehicular, Short- and Long-Range Communication Information Fusion for Providing Safe Speed Warnings

PubMed Central

Jiménez, Felipe; Naranjo, Jose Eugenio; Serradilla, Francisco; Pérez, Elisa; Hernández, María Jose; Ruiz, Trinidad; Anaya, José Javier; Díaz, Alberto

2016-01-01

Inappropriate speed is a relevant concurrent factor in many traffic accidents. Moreover, in recent years, traffic accidents numbers in Spain have fallen sharply, but this reduction has not been so significant on single carriageway roads. These infrastructures have less equipment than high-capacity roads, therefore measures to reduce accidents on them should be implemented in vehicles. This article describes the development and analysis of the impact on the driver of a warning system for the safe speed on each road section in terms of geometry, the presence of traffic jams, weather conditions, type of vehicle and actual driving conditions. This system is based on an application for smartphones and includes knowledge of the vehicle position via Ground Positioning System (GPS), access to intravehicular information from onboard sensors through the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus, vehicle data entry by the driver, access to roadside information (short-range communications) and access to a centralized server with information about the road in the current and following sections of the route (long-range communications). Using this information, the system calculates the safe speed, recommends the appropriate speed in advance in the following sections and provides warnings to the driver. Finally, data are sent from vehicles to a server to generate new information to disseminate to other users or to supervise drivers’ behaviour. Tests in a driving simulator have been used to define the system warnings and Human Machine Interface (HMI) and final tests have been performed on real roads in order to analyze the effect of the system on driver behavior. PMID:26805839

Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-10-01

Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Improving the Health Forecasting Alert System for Cold Weather and Heat-Waves In England: A Proof-of-Concept Using Temperature-Mortality Relationships

PubMed Central

Masato, Giacomo; Bone, Angie; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Cavany, Sean; Neal, Robert; Dankers, Rutger; Dacre, Helen; Carmichael, Katie; Murray, Virginia

2015-01-01

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use. PMID:26431427

Improving the Health Forecasting Alert System for Cold Weather and Heat-Waves In England: A Proof-of-Concept Using Temperature-Mortality Relationships.

PubMed

Masato, Giacomo; Bone, Angie; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Cavany, Sean; Neal, Robert; Dankers, Rutger; Dacre, Helen; Carmichael, Katie; Murray, Virginia

2015-01-01

In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Mortality from flash floods: a review of national weather service reports, 1969-81.

PubMed Central

French, J; Ing, R; Von Allmen, S; Wood, R

1983-01-01

Of all weather-related disasters that occur in the United States, floods are the main cause of death, and most flood-related deaths are attributed to flash floods. Whenever a weather-related disaster involves 30 or more deaths or more than $100 million in property damage, the National Weather Service (NWS) forms a survey team to investigate the disaster and write a report of findings. All NWS survey reports on flash floods issued during 1969-81 were reviewed to determine the mortality resulting from such floods, the effect of warnings on mortality, and the circumstances contributing to death. A total of 1,185 deaths were associated with 32 flash floods, an average of 37 deaths per flash flood. The highest average number of deaths per event was associated with the four flash floods in which dams broke after heavy rains. Although there were 18 flash floods in 1977-81 and only 14 in 1969-76, the number of deaths was 2 1/2 times greater during the earlier period. More than twice as many deaths were associated with flash floods for which the survey team considered the warnings inadequate than with those with warnings considered adequate. Ninety-three percent of the deaths were due to drowning and 42 percent of these drownings were car related. The other drownings occurred in homes, at campsites, or when persons were crossing bridges and streams. The need for monitoring dams during periods of heavy rainfall is highlighted. PMID:6419273

Satellites as Sentinels for Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.; Yland, Jan-Marcus

2001-01-01

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing the human health aspects of sustainability by enabling improved understanding of the relationships and linkages between health-related environmental parameters and society as well as techniques for early warning of potential health problems. Remote sensing, geographic information systems, improved computational capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global health issues. This paper provides a number of recent examples of applications of these technologies to health issues related to the following: infectious and vector-borne diseases; urban, regional and global air pollution; heat stress; UV radiation; water-borne disease; extreme weather; contaminant pathways (ocean, atmosphere, ice).

Integrating Multiple Space Ground Sensors to Track Volcanic Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve; Davies, Ashley; Doubleday, Joshua; Tran, Daniel; Jones, Samuel; Kjartansson, Einar; Thorsteinsson, Hrobjartur; Vogfjord, Kristin; Guomundsson, Magnus; Thordarson, Thor;

Experts warn against cutting NOAA Space Weather Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

A well-timed congressional hearing, coming in the midst of fierce geomagnetic storms, could help to restore funding to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center (SEC).The center, which is the nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings, currently is funded at $5.24 million for fiscal year 2003. That amount is $2 million less than it received the previous year. The Bush Administration has requested $8.02 million in funding. The appropriations bill, for the departments of Commerce, Justice, and State for fiscal year 2004, passed on 23 July by the House of Representatives, calls for funding the SEC at the $5.29 million level.

The Joint Airport Weather Studies Project - Current analysis highlights in the aviation safety context

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarthy, J.

1984-01-01

The principal objective of the Joint Airport Weather Studies Project was to obtain high-resolution velocity, turbulence, and thermodynamic data on a convective outflow called a microburst, an intense downdraft and resulting horizontal outflow near the surface. Data collection occurred during the summer of 1982 near Denver, CO. Data sensors included three pulsed-microwave Doppler and two pulsed CO2 lidar radars, along with 27 Portable Automated Mesonet surface weather stations, the FAA's low-level-wind-shear alert system (LLWSAS), and five instrumented research aircraft. Convective storms occurred on 75 of 91 operational days, with Doppler data being collected on at least 70 microbursts. Analyses reported included a thorough examination of microburst-climatology statistics, the capability of the LLWSAS to detect adequately and accurately the presence of low-altitude wind shear danger to aircraft, the capability of a terminal Doppler radar system development to provide improved wind-shear detection and warning, and progress toward improved wind-shear training for pilots.

The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.; Boccippio, D.; Koshak, W.; Bailey, J.; Hall, J.; Bateman, M.; McCaul, E.; Buechler, D.;

An Automatic Weather Station Network for Low-Altitude Wind Shear Investigations

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-18

information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. 4 . ... . . . . . . . . . . . ... ° TECHNICAL REPORT...technical issues asso- ciated with unique FAA needs for weather information used by pilots, air traffic controllers and meteorologists. The weather radar...warnings be free of false alarms and be issued in a timely manner. During the summer of 1983, Lincoln began a long term study that places emphasis on

Developments of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemig, Vera; Olav Skøien, Jon; Salamon, Peter; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Holst, Bo; Asp, Sara-Sophia; Garcia Padilla, Mercedes; Garcia, Rafael J.; Schweim, Christoph; Ziese, Markus

2017-04-01

EFAS (http://www.efas.eu) is an operational system for flood forecasting and early warning for the entire Europe, which is fully operational as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service since 2012. The prime aim of EFAS is to gain time for preparedness measures before major flood events - particularly in trans-national river basins - strike. This is achieved by providing complementary, added value information to the national and regional services holding the mandate for flood warning as well as to the ERCC (European Response and Coordination Centre). Using a coherent model for all of Europe forced with a range of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts, the system can give a probabilistic flood forecast for a medium range lead time (up to 10 days) independent of country borders. The system is under continuous development, and we will present the basic set up, some prominent examples of recent and ongoing developments (such as the rapid impact assessment, seasonal outlook and the extended domain) and the future challenges.

Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites

PubMed Central

Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2014-01-01

As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

ForWarn Forest Disturbance Change Detection System Provides a Weekly Snapshot of US Forest Conditions to Aid Forest Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Kumar, J.; Hoffman, F. M.

2012-12-01

The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. To help forest and natural resource managers rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests, ForWarn produces sets of national maps showing potential forest disturbances at 231m resolution every 8 days, and posts the results to the web for examination. ForWarn compares current greenness with the "normal," historically seen greenness that would be expected for healthy vegetation for a specific location and time of the year, and then identifies areas appearing less green than expected to provide a strategic national overview of potential forest disturbances that can be used to direct ground and aircraft efforts. In addition to forests, ForWarn also tracks potential disturbances in rangeland vegetation and agriculural crops. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release, and followed by a series of training webinars. Almost 60 early-adopter state and federal forest managers attended at least one of the ForWarn rollout webinars. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the web through the ForWarn Change Assessment Viewer at http://forwarn.forestthreats.org/fcav.

The effort to increase the space weather forecasting accuracy in KSWC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. S.

2017-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition as the Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. Recently, KSWC are focusing on increasing the accuracy of space weather forecasting results and verifying the model generated results. The forecasting accuracy will be calculated based on the probability statistical estimation so that the results can be compared numerically. Regarding the cosmic radiation does, we are gathering the actual measured data of radiation does using the instrument by cooperation with the domestic airlines. Based on the measurement, we are going to verify the reliability of SAFE system which was developed by KSWC to provide the cosmic radiation does information with the airplane cabin crew and public users.

Preliminary Results form the Japanese Total Lightning Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobara, Y.; Ishii, H.; Kumagai, Y.; Liu, C.; Heckman, S.; Price, C. G.; Williams, E. R.

2015-12-01

We report on the initial observational results from the first Japanese Total Lightning Detection Network (JTLN) in relation to severe weather phenomena. The University of Electro-Communications (UEC) has deployed the Earth Networks (EN) Total Lightning System over Japan to carry out research on the relationship between thunderstorm activity and severe weather phenomena since 2013. In this paper we first demonstrate the current status of our new network followed by the initial scientific results. The lightning jump algorithm was applied to our total lightning data to study the relationship between total lighting activity and hazardous weather events such as gust fronts and tornadoes over land reported by the JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) in 2014. As a result, a clear increase in total lighting flash rate as well as lightning jumps are observed prior to most hazardous weather events (~20 min) indicating potential usefulness for early warning in Japan. Furthermore we are going to demonstrate the relationship of total lightning activities with meteorological radar data focusing particularly on Japanese Tornadic storms.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, members of the media participate in a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Briefing participants from left are: Steve Cole of NASA Communications; Dan Lindsey, GOES-R senior scientific advisor for NOAA; Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service for NOAA; Jim Roberts, a scientist with the Earth System Research Laboratory's Office of Atmospheric Research for NOAA; Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, and George Morrow, deputy director of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. GOES-S is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.

2017-12-01

Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we evaluate FIFS' skill and compare it to the NMME and the International Research Institute forecasts. Our study concludes with an overview of the satellite observations provided by FEWS NET partners at NOAA, NASA, USGS, and UC Santa Barbara, and the assimilation of these products within the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS).

Application of the Haines Index in the fire warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric

2016-04-01

Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.

The use of seasonal forecasts in a crop failure early warning system for West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicklin, K. J.; Challinor, A.; Tompkins, A.

2011-12-01

Seasonal rainfall in semi-arid West Africa is highly variable. Farming systems in the region are heavily dependent on the monsoon rains leading to large variability in crop yields and a population that is vulnerable to drought. The existing crop yield forecasting system uses observed weather to calculate a water satisfaction index, which is then related to expected crop yield (Traore et al, 2006). Seasonal climate forecasts may be able to increase the lead-time of yield forecasts and reduce the humanitarian impact of drought. This study assesses the potential for a crop failure early warning system, which uses dynamic seasonal forecasts and a process-based crop model. Two sets of simulations are presented. In the first, the crop model is driven with observed weather as a control run. Observed rainfall is provided by the GPCP 1DD data set, whilst observed temperature and solar radiation data are given by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The crop model used is the groundnut version of the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM), which has been designed to operate on the grids used by seasonal weather forecasts (Challinor et al, 2004). GLAM is modified for use in West Africa by allowing multiple planting dates each season, replanting failed crops and producing parameter sets for Spanish- and Virginia- type West African groundnut. Crop yields are simulated for three different assumptions concerning the distribution and relative abundance of Spanish- and Virginia- type groundnut. Model performance varies with location, but overall shows positive skill in reproducing observed crop failure. The results for the three assumptions are similar, suggesting that the performance of the system is limited by something other than information on the type of groundnut grown. In the second set of simulations the crop model is driven with observed weather up to the forecast date, followed by ECMWF system 3 seasonal forecasts until harvest. The variation of skill with forecast date is assessed along with the extent to which forecasts can be improved by bias correction of the rainfall data. Two forms of bias correction are applied: a novel method of spatially bias correcting daily data, and statistical bias correction of the frequency and intensity distribution. Results are presented using both observed yields and the control run as the reference for verification. The potential for current dynamic seasonal forecasts to form part of an operational system giving timely and accurate warnings of crop failure is discussed. Traore S.B. et al., 2006. A Review of Agrometeorological Monitoring Tools and Methods Used in the West African Sahel. In: Motha R.P. et al., Strengthening Operational Agrometeorological Services at the National Level. Technical Bulletin WAOB-2006-1 and AGM-9, WMO/TD No. 1277. Pages 209-220. www.wamis.org/agm/pubs/agm9/WMO-TD1277.pdf Challinor A.J. et al., 2004. Design and optimisation of a large-area process based model for annual crops. Agric. For. Meteorol. 124, 99-120.

Public Health System Response to Extreme Weather Events.

PubMed

Hunter, Mark D; Hunter, Jennifer C; Yang, Jane E; Crawley, Adam W; Aragón, Tomás J

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events, unpredictable and often far-reaching, constitute a persistent challenge for public health preparedness. The goal of this research is to inform public health systems improvement through examination of extreme weather events, comparing across cases to identify recurring patterns in event and response characteristics. Structured telephone-based interviews were conducted with representatives from health departments to assess characteristics of recent extreme weather events and agencies' responses. Response activities were assessed using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities framework. Challenges that are typical of this response environment are reported. Forty-five local health departments in 20 US states. Respondents described public health system responses to 45 events involving tornadoes, flooding, wildfires, winter weather, hurricanes, and other storms. Events of similar scale were infrequent for a majority (62%) of the communities involved; disruption to critical infrastructure was universal. Public Health Emergency Preparedness Capabilities considered most essential involved environmental health investigations, mass care and sheltering, surveillance and epidemiology, information sharing, and public information and warning. Unanticipated response activities or operational constraints were common. We characterize extreme weather events as a "quadruple threat" because (1) direct threats to population health are accompanied by damage to public health protective and community infrastructure, (2) event characteristics often impose novel and pervasive burdens on communities, (3) responses rely on critical infrastructures whose failure both creates new burdens and diminishes response capacity, and (4) their infrequency and scale further compromise response capacity. Given the challenges associated with extreme weather events, we suggest opportunities for organizational learning and preparedness improvements.

NASA Lewis Research Center photovoltaic application experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratajczak, A.; Bifano, W.; Martz, J.; Odonnell, P.

1978-01-01

The NASA Lewis Research Center has installed 16 geographically dispersed terrestrial photovoltaic systems as part of the DOE National Photovoltaic Program. Four additional experiments are in progress. Currently, operating systems are powering refrigerators, a highway warning sign, forest lookout towers, remote weather stations, a water chiller and insect survey traps. Experiments in progress include the world's first village power system, an air pollution monitor and seismic sensors. Under a separate activity, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, a PV-powered water pump and grain grinder is being prepared for an African village. System descriptions and status are included in this report.

Integration of the TDWR and LLWAS wind shear detection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornman, Larry

1991-01-01

Operational demonstrations of a prototype TDWR/LLWAS (Terminal Doppler Weather Radar/Low Level Wind shear Alarm System) integrated wind shear detection system were conducted. The integration of wind shear detection systems is needed to provide end-users with a single, consensus source of information. A properly implemented integrated system provides wind shear warnings of a higher quality than stand-alone LLWAS or TDWR systems. The algorithmic concept used to generate the TDWR/LLWAS integrated products and several case studies are discussed, indicating the viability and potential of integrated wind shear detection systems. Implications for integrating ground and airborne wind shear detection systems are briefly examined.

Comparison Between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dworak, Richard; Bedka, Kristopher; Brunner, Jason; Feltz, Wayne

2012-01-01

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-micrometer infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (less than 200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

The 1991 International Aerospace and Ground Conference on Lightning and Static Electricity, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The proceedings of the 1991 International Aerospace and Ground Conference on Lightning and Static Electricity are reported. Some of the topics covered include: lightning, lightning suppression, aerospace vehicles, aircraft safety, flight safety, aviation meteorology, thunderstorms, atmospheric electricity, warning systems, weather forecasting, electromagnetic coupling, electrical measurement, electrostatics, aircraft hazards, flight hazards, meteorological parameters, cloud (meteorology), ground effect, electric currents, lightning equipment, electric fields, measuring instruments, electrical grounding, and aircraft instruments.

KSC-2009-3841

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-06-25

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – A prelaunch news conference on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-O mission is held in NASA's Kennedy Space Center press site auditorium. From left, the participants are George H. Diller, moderator, Media Services, Kennedy Space Center; Gary Davis, director, Office of Systems Development, NOAA Satellite and Information Service, Suitland, Md.; Kris Walsh, Commercial Programs manager, United Launch Alliance, Houston; Kevin Reyes, director, Business Development, Boeing Launch Services; Andre Dress, GOES-O deputy project manager, Goddard Space Flight Center; Charlie Maloney, GOES-O program manager, Boeing Space and Intelligence Systems, Seal Beach, Calif.; Bart Hagemeyer, meteorologist in charge, NOAA National Weather Service forecast office, Melbourne, Fla.; and Joel Tumbiolo, Delta IV launch weather officer, 45th Weather Squadron, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The GOES-O satellite is targeted to launch June 26. The latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-O was developed by NASA for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. Each of the GOES satellites continuously provides observations of 60 percent of the Earth including the continental United States, providing weather monitoring and forecast operations as well as a continuous and reliable stream of environmental information and severe weather warnings. Once in orbit, GOES-O will be designated GOES-14, and NASA will provide on-orbit checkout and then transfer operational responsibility to NOAA. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

Lightning: Nature's Probe of Severe Weather for Research and Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, R.J.

2007-01-01

Lightning, the energetic and broadband electrical discharge produced by thunderstorms, provides a natural remote sensing signal for the study of severe storms and related phenomena on global, regional and local scales. Using this strong signal- one of nature's own probes of severe weather -lightning measurements prove to be straightforward and take advantage of a variety of measurement techniques that have advanced considerably in recent years. We briefly review some of the leading lightning detection systems including satellite-based optical detectors such as the Lightning Imaging Sensor, and ground-based radio frequency systems such as Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), long range lightning detection systems, and the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) networks. In addition, we examine some of the exciting new research results and operational capabilities (e.g., shortened tornado warning lead times) derived from these observations. Finally we look forward to the next measurement advance - lightning observations from geostationary orbit.

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Results and Future Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.; Boccippio, D.; Koshak, W.; Bailey, J.; Hall, J.; Bateman, M.; McCaul, E.; Buechler, D.

2002-01-01

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather and the warning decision-making process. The LMA project is a collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs), emergency managers, and other partners. The time rate-of-change of storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD II) system, initially developed in T997 through a collaboration among NASA/MSFC, MIT/Lincoln Lab and the Melbourne, FL WFO. LISDAD II is now a distributed decision support system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of the southeastern U.S. Since the inauguration of the LMA there has been an abundance of severe weather. During 23-24 November 2001, a major tornado outbreak was monitored by LMA in its first data acquisition effort (36 tornadoes in Alabama). Since that time the LMA has collected a vast amount of data on hailstorms and damaging wind events, non-tornadic supercells, and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. In this paper we provide an overview of LMA observations and discuss future prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather.

GOES-S Liftoff

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-03-01

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station carrying the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Liftoff was at 5:02 p.m. EST. GOES-S is the second satellite in a series of next-generation weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting.

Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2014-05-01

Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

NOAA's National Hydrologic Assessment

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

Assessing Operational Total Lightning Visualization Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Darden, Christopher B.; Nadler, David J.

2010-01-01

In May 2003, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program successfully provided total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Huntsville, Alabama. The major accomplishment was providing the observations in real-time to the NWS in the native Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) decision support system. Within days, the NALMA data were used to issue a tornado warning initiating seven years of ongoing support to the NWS' severe weather and situational awareness operations. With this success, SPoRT now provides real-time NALMA data to five forecast offices as well as working to transition data from total lightning networks at Kennedy Space Center and the White Sands Missile Range to the surrounding NWS offices. The only NALMA product that has been transitioned to SPoRT's partner NWS offices is the source density product, available at a 2 km resolution in 2 min intervals. However, discussions with users of total lightning data from other networks have shown that other products are available, ranging from spatial and temporal variations of the source density product to the creation of a flash extent density. SPoRT and the Huntsville, Alabama NWS are evaluating the utility of these variations as this has not been addressed since the initial transition in 2003. This preliminary analysis will focus on what products will best support the operational warning decision process. Data from 19 April 2009 are analyzed. On this day, severe thunderstorms formed ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread severe weather was observed, primarily south of the Tennessee River with multiple, weak tornadoes, numerous severe hail reports, and wind. This preliminary analysis is the first step in evaluation which product(s) are best suited for operations. The ultimate goal is selecting a single product for use with all total lightning networks to streamline training and science sharing.

Fifty Years of Space Weather Forecasting from Boulder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, T. E.

2015-12-01

The first official space weather forecast was issued by the Space Disturbances Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, in 1965, ushering in an era of operational prediction that continues to this day. Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) charters the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) as one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to provide the nation's official watches, warnings, and alerts of space weather phenomena. SWPC is now integral to national and international efforts to predict space weather events, from the common and mild, to the rare and extreme, that can impact critical technological infrastructure. In 2012, the Strategic National Risk Assessment included extreme space weather events as low-to-medium probability phenomena that could, unlike any other meteorogical phenomena, have an impact on the government's ability to function. Recognizing this, the White House chartered the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to produce the first comprehensive national strategy for the prediction, mitigation, and response to an extreme space weather event. The implementation of the National Strategy is ongoing with NOAA, its partners, and stakeholders concentrating on the goal of improving our ability to observe, model, and predict the onset and severity of space weather events. In addition, work continues with the research community to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms - on the Sun, in the heliosphere, and in the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere - of space weather as well as the effects on critical infrastructure such as electrical power transmission systems. In fifty years, people will hopefully look back at the history of operational space weather prediction and credit our efforts today with solidifying the necessary developments in observational systems, full-physics models of the entire Sun-Earth system, and tools for predicting the impacts to infrastructure to protect against any and all forms of space weather.

The New Geodesy: A Powerful Tool in the Mitigation of Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, J. L.

2017-12-01

Geodesy has transitioned from a little understood arcane science into an indispensible tool that is used by most citizens in their everyday lives. Who does not use GNSS to navigate with little thought to the contributions of geodecists, physicists and the technological marvels that made this possible. Less understood is how geodetic science and technology is transforming our approach to disaster warning and mitigation. Space Geodesy and the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are directly impacting the effectiveness and efficiency of understanding, preparedness and response in such disparate areas as weather, water resources, earthquakes, climate change impacts, soil moisture, land cover, and tsunami early warning. However, the full benefits of geodesy to society cannot be achieved without international accords and investments to access the full spectrum geodetic information with minimal latency.

Description and status of NASA-LeRC/DOE photovoltaic applications systems experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratajczak, A. F.

1978-01-01

In its role of supporting the DOE Photovoltaic Program, the NASA-Lewis Research Center has designed, fabricated and installed 16 geographically dispersed photovoltaic systems. These systems are powering a refrigerator, highway warning sign, forest lookout towers, remote weather stations, a water chiller at a visitor center, and insect survey traps. Each of these systems is described in terms of load requirements, solar array and battery size, and instrumentation and controls. Operational experience is described and present status is given for each system. The P/V power systems have proven to be highly reliable with almost no problems with modules and very few problems overall

The Ensemble Space Weather Modeling System (eSWMS): Status, Capabilities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, C. D.; Eccles, J. V.; Reich, J. P.

2010-12-01

Marking a milestone in space weather forecasting, the Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) successfully completed validation testing in advance of operational testing at Air Force Weather Agency’s primary space weather production center. This is the first coupling of stand-alone, physics-based space weather models that are currently in operations at AFWA supporting the warfighter. Significant development effort went into ensuring the component models were portable and scalable while maintaining consistent results across diverse high performance computing platforms. Coupling was accomplished under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The coupled space weather models are the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and GAIM1, the ionospheric forecast component of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model. The SWMS was developed by team members from AFWA, Explorations Physics International, Inc. (EXPI) and Space Environment Corporation (SEC). The successful development of the SWMS provides new capabilities beyond enabling extended lead-time, data-driven ionospheric forecasts. These include ingesting diverse data sets at higher resolution, incorporating denser computational grids at finer time steps, and performing probability-based ensemble forecasts. Work of the SWMS development team now focuses on implementing the ensemble-based probability forecast capability by feeding multiple scenarios of 5 days of solar wind forecasts to the GAIM1 model based on the variation of the input fields to the HAFv2 model. The ensemble SWMS (eSWMS) will provide the most-likely space weather scenario with uncertainty estimates for important forecast fields. The eSWMS will allow DoD mission planners to consider the effects of space weather on their systems with more advance warning than is currently possible. The payoff is enhanced, tailored support to the warfighter with improved capabilities, such as point-to-point HF propagation forecasts, single-frequency GPS error corrections, and high cadence, high-resolution Space Situational Awareness (SSA) products. We present the current status of eSWMS, its capabilities, limitations and path of transition to operational use.

Air shower simulation for WASAVIES: warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles.

PubMed

Sato, T; Kataoka, R; Yasuda, H; Yashiro, S; Kuwabara, T; Shiota, D; Kubo, Y

2014-10-01

WASAVIES, a warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles (SEPs), is under development by collaboration between several institutes in Japan and the USA. It is designed to deterministically forecast the SEP fluxes incident on the atmosphere within 6 h after flare onset using the latest space weather research. To immediately estimate the aircrew doses from the obtained SEP fluxes, the response functions of the particle fluxes generated by the incidence of monoenergetic protons into the atmosphere were developed by performing air shower simulations using the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code system. The accuracy of the simulation was well verified by calculating the increase count rates of a neutron monitor during a ground-level enhancement, combining the response function with the SEP fluxes measured by the PAMELA spectrometer. The response function will be implemented in WASAVIES and used to protect aircrews from additional SEP exposure. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Performance analysis and technical assessment of coherent lidar systems for airborne wind shear detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffaker, R. Milton; Targ, Russell

1988-01-01

Detailed computer simulations of the lidar wind-measuring process have been conducted to evaluate the use of pulsed coherent lidar for airborne windshear monitoring. NASA data fields for an actual microburst event were used in the simulation. Both CO2 and Ho:YAG laser lidar systems performed well in the microburst test case, and were able to measure wind shear in the severe weather of this wet microburst to ranges in excess of 1.4 km. The consequent warning time gained was about 15 sec.

Codified Hashtags for Weather Warning on Twitter: an Italian Case Study

PubMed Central

Grasso, Valentina; Crisci, Alfonso

2016-01-01

Introduction: During emergencies increasing numbers of messages are shared through social media platforms becoming a primary source of information for lay people and emergency managers. For Twitter codified hashtagging is emerging as a practical way to coordinate messages during emergencies and quickly identify relevant information. This paper considers a case study on the use of codified hashtags concerning weather warning in Italy in three different regions. Methods: From November 3rd to December 2nd 2014, tweets identified by the 3 codified hashtags #allertameteoTOS, #allertameteoLIG and #allertameteoPIE were retrieved, collecting a total of 35,558 tweets published by 7361 unique tweets authors, with the aim to assess if codified hashtags could represent an effective way to align formal and informal sources of information during weather related emergencies. An auxiliary R-package was built to lead the analytics used in this study. Authors performed a manual coding of users, hashtags and content of messages of all Twitter data considered. Results: Content analysis showed that tweets were overwhelmingly related to situational updates, with a high percentage containing geo-location information. Communication patterns of different user types were discussed for the three contexts. In accordance with previous studies, individuals showed an active participation primarily functioning as information hub during the emergency. Discussion: In the proposed cases codified hashtags have proven to be an effective tool to convey useful information on Twitter by formal and informal sources. Where institutions supported the use of the predefined hashtag in communication activities, like in Tuscany, messages were very focused, with more than 90% of tweets being situational updates. In this perspective, use of codified hashtags may potentially improve the performance of systems for automatic information retrieval and processing during disasters. Keywords: social media, emergency management, Twitter, severe weather PMID:27500010

Development of Innovative Technology to Provide Low-Cost Surface Atmospheric Observations in Data Sparse Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucera, Paul; Steinson, Martin

2017-04-01

Accurate and reliable real-time monitoring and dissemination of observations of surface weather conditions is critical for a variety of societal applications. Applications that provide local and regional information about temperature, precipitation, moisture, and winds, for example, are important for agriculture, water resource monitoring, health, and monitoring of hazard weather conditions. In many regions of the World, surface weather stations are sparsely located and/or of poor quality. Existing stations have often been sited incorrectly, not well-maintained, and have limited communications established at the site for real-time monitoring. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with support from USAID, has started an initiative to develop and deploy low-cost weather instrumentation in sparsely observed regions of the world. The project is focused on improving weather observations for environmental monitoring and early warning alert systems on a regional to global scale. Instrumentation that has been developed use innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, Raspberry Pi computing systems, and wireless communications. The goal of the project is to make the weather station designs, software, and processing tools an open community resource. The weather stations can be built locally by agencies, through educational institutions, and residential communities as a citizen effort to augment existing networks to improve detection of natural hazards for disaster risk reduction. The presentation will provide an overview of the open source weather station technology and evaluation of sensor observations for the initial networks that have been deployed in Africa.

KSC-20180301-VP-CDC01_0001-GOES_S_Launch_Commentary-3182524

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-03-01

A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station carrying the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. Liftoff was at 5:02 p.m. EST. GOES-S is the second satellite in a series of next-generation weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting.

The quality and value of seasonal precipitation forecasts for an early warning of large-scale droughts and floods in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliefernicht, Jan; Seidel, Jochen; Salack, Seyni; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

Seasonal precipitation forecasts are a crucial source of information for an early warning of hydro-meteorological extremes in West Africa. However, the current seasonal forecasting system used by the West African weather services in the framework of the West African Climate Outlook forum (PRESAO) is limited to probabilistic precipitation forecasts of 1-month lead time. To improve this provision, we use an ensemble-based quantile-quantile transformation for bias correction of precipitation forecasts provided by a global seasonal ensemble prediction system, the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFS2). The statistical technique eliminates systematic differences between global forecasts and observations with the potential to preserve the signal from the model. The technique has also the advantage that it can be easily implemented at national weather services with low capacities. The statistical technique is used to generate probabilistic forecasts of monthly and seasonal precipitation amount and other precipitation indices useful for an early warning of large-scale drought and floods in West Africa. The evaluation of the statistical technique is done using CFS hindcasts (1982 to 2009) in a cross-validation mode to determine the performance of the precipitation forecasts for several lead times focusing on drought and flood events depicted over the Volta and Niger basins. In addition, operational forecasts provided by PRESAO are analyzed from 1998 to 2015. The precipitation forecasts are compared to low-skill reference forecasts generated from gridded observations (i.e. GPCC, CHIRPS) and a novel in-situ gauge database from national observation networks (see Poster EGU2017-10271). The forecasts are evaluated using state-of-the-art verification techniques to determine specific quality attributes of probabilistic forecasts such as reliability, accuracy and skill. In addition, cost-loss approaches are used to determine the value of probabilistic forecasts for multiple users in warning situations. The outcomes of the hindcasts experiment for the Volta basin illustrate that the statistical technique can clearly improve the CFS precipitation forecasts with the potential to provide skillful and valuable early precipitation warnings for large-scale drought and flood situations several months in ahead. In this presentation we give a detailed overview about the ensemble-based quantile-quantile-transformation, its validation and verification and the possibilities of this technique to complement PRESAO. We also highlight the performance of this technique for extremes such as the Sahel drought in the 80ties and in comparison to the various reference data sets (e.g. CFS2, PRESAO, observational data sets) used in this study.

Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, Katharina; Panziera, Luca; Germann, Urs; Zappa, Massimiliano

2013-04-01

In our study we explore the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 hours between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic forcing.

Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-01-01

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.

2015-12-01

The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are: How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings? Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.

Air Parity: Re-Discovering Contested Air Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

these days repeated in attack numbers and flying conditions, but the phase would end with bad weather – from 19 to 23 August dense cloud cover would...Command HQ acted as the central processor of information from the radar warning system.149 It did not make any tactical decisions, which...hours to spare[.] My HQ , for example, provided a daily working party of 53 officers and men for 3 ½ months.”292 The Army would also assist the ground

National Maps - Alaska - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings current Forecast for Alaska is produced by the NWS Anchorage Forecast Office. It is updated daily Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and

Meteorological operational services for civil protection in Veneto region (North-eastern Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbi, A.; Monai, M.; Zardini, F.

2009-09-01

The Meteorological Centre of Teolo (CMT), part of the Regional Agency for Environmental Prevention and Protection of the North-eastern Italian region Veneto (ARPAV), is the operational regional meteorological service. Since April 2009 the Centre is linked to and supplies meteorological monitoring and forecasting to the recently constituted Functional Centre of the regional civil protection (CFD Veneto), which operates in the framework of National Civil Protection. The CFD Veneto supplies a multi-disciplinary, technical-scientific support to civil protection activities, to early warnings of natural hazards, in particular related to hydrogeological, hydraulic, and avalanches risks. The north-eastern part of Italy is known to be one of the rainiest regions in Europe. The region Veneto, due to its topographic configuration which includes Alpine reliefs, plans and a coast exposed to the Adriatic Sea, is conducive to heavy and long-lasting precipitation events. Also, strong thunderstorm activity with high precipitation rates, hail, wind gusts, and even tornadoes are relatively frequent occurrences. In this contribution two recent examples of different types of extreme events are briefly analysed by means of the ARPAV multi-sensor observing system which includes weather radar and a dense surface network. We show some of the impacts of such weather events on the territory, the services provided by CFD Veneto, in terms of meteorological forecasting and nowcasting products, and hydrogeologic/hydraulic hazard bullettins. The analysis highlights the difficulty of an efficient wheather forecast for civil defence purposes in a complex situation as ours, where many types of different events are possible. Especially cases of rapid convective events with their intense and very localized phenomena are a significant challenge. It is well-known that such events can bring remarkable material damages and serious danger for the people. For this reason an effective warning system which can handle this type of events is needed, and may feature different procedures and warning methods than for long-lasting precipitation events. The latter are generally more predictable by meteorological models, have slow and more continuous time-spatial evolutions with delayed hydrogeologic and hydraulic impacts (landslides, landslips, floods, etc.). This allows anticipated more efficient warnings, also supported, to some extent, by hydrologic modelling.

The GOES-R Spacecraft Space Weather Instruments and Level 2+ Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loto'aniu, Paul; Rodriguez, Juan; Machol, Janet; Kress, Brian; Darnel, Jonathan; Redmon, Robert; Rowland, William; Seation, Daniel; Tilton, Margaret; Denig, William

2016-04-01

Since their inception in the 1970s, the GOES satellites have monitored the sources of space weather on the sun and the effects of space weather at Earth. The space weather instruments on GOES-R will monitor: solar X-rays, UV light, solar energetic particles, magnetospheric energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and Earth's magnetic field. These measurements are important for providing alerts and warnings to many customers, including satellite operators, the power utilities, and NASA's human activities in space. This presentation reviews the capabilities of the GOES-R space weather instruments and describes the space weather Level 2+ products that are being developed for GOES-R. These new and continuing data products will be an integral part of NOAA space weather operations in the GOES-R era.

Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold models. Building on the experience gained in designing, implementing, and operating national and regional landslide forecasting systems in Italy, and on a preliminary review of the existing literature on regional landslide early warning systems, the talk discusses concepts, limitations and challenges inherent to the design of reliable forecasting and early warning systems for rainfall-triggered landslides, the evaluation of the performances of the systems, and on problems related to the use of the forecasts and the issuing of landslide warnings. Several of the typical elements of an operational landslide forecasting system are considered, including: (i) the rainfall and landslide information used to establish the threshold models, (ii) the methods and tools used to define the empirical rainfall thresholds, and their associated uncertainty, (iii) the quality (e.g., the temporal and spatial resolution) of the rainfall information used for operational forecasting, including rain gauge and radar measurements, satellite estimates, and quantitative weather forecasts, (iv) the ancillary information used to prepare the forecasts, including e.g., the terrain subdivisions and the landslide susceptibility zonations, (v) the criteria used to transform the forecasts into landslide warnings and the methods used to communicate the warnings, and (vi) the criteria and strategies adopted to evaluate the performances of the systems, and to define minimum or optimal performance levels.

Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

2015-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and landslides are communicated in Norway and discussing the questions above, we intend to add to the discussion on what is the ethical responsibility for scientists performing forecasting and communication of natural hazards.

Somerset County Flood Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoppe, Heidi L.

2007-01-01

The timely warning of a flood is crucial to the protection of lives and property. One has only to recall the floods of August 2, 1973, September 16 and 17, 1999, and April 16, 2007, in Somerset County, New Jersey, in which lives were lost and major property damage occurred, to realize how costly, especially in terms of human life, an unexpected flood can be. Accurate forecasts and warnings cannot be made, however, without detailed information about precipitation and streamflow in the drainage basin. Since the mid 1960's, the National Weather Service (NWS) has been able to forecast flooding on larger streams in Somerset County, such as the Raritan and Millstone Rivers. Flooding on smaller streams in urban areas was more difficult to predict. In response to this problem the NWS, in cooperation with the Green Brook Flood Control Commission, installed a precipitation gage in North Plainfield, and two flash-flood alarms, one on Green Brook at Seeley Mills and one on Stony Brook at Watchung, in the early 1970's. In 1978, New Jersey's first countywide flood-warning system was installed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Somerset County. This system consisted of a network of eight stage and discharge gages equipped with precipitation gages linked by telephone telemetry and eight auxiliary precipitation gages. The gages were installed throughout the county to collect precipitation and runoff data that could be used to improve flood-monitoring capabilities and flood-frequency estimates. Recognizing the need for more detailed hydrologic information for Somerset County, the USGS, in cooperation with Somerset County, designed and installed the Somerset County Flood Information System (SCFIS) in 1990. This system is part of a statewide network of stream gages, precipitation gages, weather stations, and tide gages that collect data in real time. The data provided by the SCFIS improve the flood forecasting ability of the NWS and aid Somerset County and municipal agencies in the planning and execution of flood-preparation and emergency-evacuation procedures in the county. This fact sheet describes the SCFIS and identifies its benefits.

Exploring radar and lightning variables associated with the Lightning Jump. Can we predict the size of the hail?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnell, C.; Rigo, T.; Pineda, N.

2018-04-01

Severe weather regularly hits the Lleida Plain (western part of Catalonia, NE of Iberian Peninsula), causing important damage to the local agriculture. In order to help severe weather surveillance tasks, the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) implemented in 2016 the Lightning Jump (LJ) algorithm as operative warning tool after an exhaustive validation phase of several months. The present study delves into the analysis of the relationship between Lightning Jump alerts and hail occurrence, through the analysis of lightning and radar variables in the moment when the warning is issued. Overall, the study has consisted of the analysis of 149 cases, grouping them into two categories according to hail size: small and large hail, with a threshold of 2 cm of diameter. The thunderstorms related to big sized hail presented remarkable differences in some of the variables analysed that could help forecast the size of hail when the LJ alert is triggered. Moreover, other variables have been allowed to observe and to corroborate how the LJ algorithm works during the 13 min before the warning is triggered.

Lightning jump as a nowcast predictor: Application to severe weather events in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnell, C.; Rigo, T.; Pineda, N.

2017-01-01

Several studies reported sudden increases in the total lightning flash rate (intra-cloud+cloud-to-ground) preceding the occurrence of severe weather (large hail, wind gusts associated to thunderstorms and/or tornadoes). Named ;Lightning Jump;, this pattern has demonstrated to be of operational applicability in the forecasting of severe weather phenomena. The present study introduces the application of a lightning jump algorithm, with an identification of cells based solely on total lightning data, revealing that there is no need of radar data to trigger severe weather warnings. The algorithm was validated by means of a dataset severe weather events occurred in Catalonia in the period 2009-2014. Results obtained revealed very promising.

Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilchrist, Brian E.; Krause, Linda Habash; Gallagher, Dennis Lee; Bilen, Sven Gunnar; Fuhrhop, Keith; Hoegy, Walt R.; Inderesan, Rohini; Johnson, Charles; Owens, Jerry Keith; Powers, Joseph;

Solar Warning Architecture for Manned Missions to Mars

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

public discussions of manned missions to return to the Moon, explore near-earth asteroids , and even visit Mars, a deep-space solar weather warning...mission planning, and libration points. In addition, the limited previous analysis on this problem was mined for information. 2.2 Radiation Effects...behind the Earth, on its orbital path. These two libration points are stable along all 3 axes, leading some to theorize there may be asteroids or

The Sun/Earth System and Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poland, Arthur I.; Fox, Nicola; Lucid, Shannon

2003-01-01

Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.

Tsunamis

MedlinePlus

... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

Volcanoes

MedlinePlus

... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

Implementation of malaria dynamic models in municipality level early warning systems in Colombia. Part I: description of study sites.

PubMed

Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M; Quiñónes, Martha L; Jiménez, Mónica M; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2014-07-01

As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

New efficient optimizing techniques for Kalman filters and numerical weather prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Famelis, Ioannis; Galanis, George; Liakatas, Aristotelis

2016-06-01

The need for accurate local environmental predictions and simulations beyond the classical meteorological forecasts are increasing the last years due to the great number of applications that are directly or not affected: renewable energy resource assessment, natural hazards early warning systems, global warming and questions on the climate change can be listed among them. Within this framework the utilization of numerical weather and wave prediction systems in conjunction with advanced statistical techniques that support the elimination of the model bias and the reduction of the error variability may successfully address the above issues. In the present work, new optimization methods are studied and tested in selected areas of Greece where the use of renewable energy sources is of critical. The added value of the proposed work is due to the solid mathematical background adopted making use of Information Geometry and Statistical techniques, new versions of Kalman filters and state of the art numerical analysis tools.

NOAA's National Weather Service

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select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings prepares the Annual Flood Loss summary for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and

U.S. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Network Centric Warfare (NCW): Impacts on Combat Aviation Tactics from Gulf War I Through 2007 Iraq

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

early warning AIM Air-intercept missile AJCN Adaptive, joint, C4ISR node AOR Area of responsibility ARM Anti-radiation missile ATARS Advanced...Tactical Airborne Reconnaissance System ( ATARS ) on F-16 and F/A-18 aircraft, and satellites. Manned platforms were adapted to multiple mission scenarios... Psychological Ops X Tern/Leaflet Dispensing, 2004 All Weather/ Night Strike X DASH/Vietnam, 1960s Predator/Afghanistan/Iraq, 2001 36

WPC Excessive Rainfall Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

2010-05-01

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive model operation, experience and forecasting strategy differs between responsible forecasting offices. Warning is based on model outputs interpretation by hydrologists-forecaster. Warning hit rate reached 0.60 for threshold set to lowest flood stage of which 0.11 was underestimation of flood degree (miss 0.22, false alarm 0.28). Critical success index of model forecast was 0.34, while the same criteria for warning reached 0.55. We assume that the increase accounts not only to change of scale from single forecasting point to region for warning, but partly also to forecaster's added value. There is no official warning strategy preferred in the Czech Republic (f.e. tolerance towards higher false alarm rate). Therefore forecaster decision and personal strategy is of great importance. Results show quite successful warning for 1st flood level exceedance, over-warning for 2nd flood level, but under-warning for 3rd (highest) flood level. That suggests general forecaster's preference of medium level warning (2nd flood level is legally determined to be the start of the flood and flood protection activities). In conclusion human forecaster's experience and analysis skill increases flood warning performance notably. However society preference should be specifically addressed in the warning strategy definition to support forecaster's decision making.

Utility of High Temporal Resolution Observations for Heat Health Event Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palecki, M. A.

2017-12-01

Many heat health watch systems produce a binary on/off warning when conditions are predicted to exceed a given threshold during a day. Days with warnings and their mortality/morbidity statistics are analyzed relative to days not warned to determine the impacts of the event on human health, the effectiveness of warnings, and other statistics. The climate analyses of the heat waves or extreme temperature events are often performed with hourly or daily observations of air temperature, humidity, and other measured or derived variables, especially the maxima and minima of these data. However, since the beginning of the century, 5-minute observations are readily available for many weather and climate stations in the United States. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has been collecting 5-minute observations from the NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations since 2000, and from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations since 2005. This presentation will demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing 5-minute environmental observations to characterize heat waves by counting the length of time conditions exceed extreme thresholds based on individual and multiple variables and on derived variables such as the heat index. The length and depth of recovery periods between daytime heating periods will also be examined. The length of time under extreme conditions will influence health outcomes for those directly exposed. Longer periods of dangerous conditions also could increase the chances for poor health outcomes for those only exposed intermittently through cumulative impacts.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Operational Space Weather Products at IPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neudegg, D.; Steward, G.; Marshall, R.; Terkildsen, M.; Kennewell, J.; Patterson, G.; Panwar, R.

2008-12-01

IPS Radio and Space Services operates an extensive network (IPSNET) of monitoring stations and observatories within the Australasian and Antarctic regions to gather information on the space environment. This includes ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS-ISM, oblique HF sounding, riometers, and solar radio and optical telescopes. IPS exchanges this information with similar organisations world-wide. The Regional Warning Centre (RWC) is the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) and it utilizes this data to provide products and services to support customer operations. A wide range of customers use IPS services including; defence force and emergency services using HF radio communications and surveillance systems, organisations involved in geophysical exploration and pipeline cathodic protection, GPS users in aviation. Subscriptions to the alerts, warnings, forecasts and reports regarding the solar, geophysical and ionospheric conditions are distributed by email and Special Message Service (SMS). IPS also develops and markets widely used PC software prediction tools for HF radio skywave and surface wave (ASAPS/GWPS) and provides consultancy services for system planning.

Impact of dual-polarization radar technology and Twitter on the Hattiesburg, Mississippi tornado.

PubMed

Cates, Alexis L; Arnold, Brent W; Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Stake, Josh; Ali, Mohammed; Calderone, Richard C; Wilkinson, James; Hsu, Edbert; Parrillo, Steven; Piper, Steven; Subbarao, Italo

2013-12-01

Dual-Polarization Radar and Twitter were analyzed to determine the impact on injuries sustained by the Hattiesburg EF-4 tornado. Tracking data provided from the Dual-Pol radar systems in National Weather Service Jackson were reviewed. Twitter data from four local Twitter handles were obtained. The change in tweets and followers for the day of the storm were compared to historical averages. A Student t-test was utilized in determining statistical significance (p<0.05). Medical records from two local emergency departments were reviewed for patients treated up to 24 hours after the tornado. An Injury Severity Score (ISS) was calculated for trauma records related to the tornado. Radar detection of the tornado gave approximately 30 minutes of advanced warning time. Statistical significance in follower growth was seen in all four Twitter handles. Out of 50 patients, the average ISS was 3.9 with a range of 1 to 29. There were zero fatalities. An ISS average of 3.9 was significantly less than two previous tornadoes of similar strength that occurred prior to increased usage of Dual-pol radar and Twitter as a means for communicating severe weather information. Early detection from Dual-pol radar improved warning time. Tweets informed citizens to seek appropriate shelter. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;7:585-592).

Health Effects of Tsunamis

MedlinePlus

... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

Trench Foot or Immersion Foot

MedlinePlus

... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

Solar and Heliospheric Data Requirements: Going Further Than L1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szabo, A.

2011-01-01

Current operational space weather forecasting relies on solar wind observations made by the ACE spacecraft located at the L1 point providing 30-40 minutes warning time. Some use is also made of SOHO and STEREO solar imaging that potentially can give multiple days of warning time. However, our understanding of the propagation and evolution of solar wind transients is still limited resulting in a typical timing uncertainty of approximately 10 hours. In order to improve this critical understanding, a number of NASA missions are being planned. Specifically the Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter missions will investigate the inner Heliospheric evolution of coronal mass ejections and the acceleration and propagation of solar energetic particles. In addition, a number of multi-spacecraft concepts have been studied that have the potential to significantly improve the accuracy of long-term space weather forecasts.

Are the current thresholds, indicators, and time window for cold warning effective enough to protect cardiovascular health?

PubMed

Lin, Shao; Lawrence, Wayne R; Lin, Ziqiang; DiRienzo, Stephen; Lipton, Kevin; Dong, Guang-Hui; Leung, Ricky; Lauper, Ursula; Nasca, Philip; Stuart, Neil

2018-10-15

More extreme cold weather and larger weather variations have raised concerns regarding their effects on public health. Although prior studies assessed the effects of cold air temperature on health, especially mortality, limited studies evaluated wind chill temperatures on morbidity, and health effects under the current cold warning threshold. This study identified the thresholds, lag periods, and best indicators of extreme cold on cardiovascular disease (CVD) by comparing effects of wind chill temperatures and cold air temperatures on CVD emergency department (ED) visits in winter and winter transition months. Information was collected on 662,625 CVD ED visits from statewide hospital discharge dataset in New York State. Meteorological factors, including air temperature, wind speed, and barometric pressure were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A case-crossover approach was used to assess the extreme cold-CVD relationship in winter (December-February) and transition months (November and March) after controlling for PM 2.5 . Conditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the association between cold weather factors and CVD ED visits. We observed CVD effects occurred when wind chill temperatures were as high as -3.8 °C (25 °F), warmer than current wind chill warning standard (≤-28.8 °C or ≤-20 °F). Wind chill temperature was a more sensitive indicator of CVD ED visits during winter with temperatures ≤ -3.8 °C (25 °F) with delay effect (lag 6); however, air temperature was better during transition months for temperatures ≤ 7.2 °C (45 °F) at earlier lag days (1-3). Among all CVD subtypes, hypertension ED visit had the strongest negative association with both wind chill temperature and air temperature. This study recommends modifying the current cold warning temperature threshold given larger proportions of CVD cases are occurring at considerably higher temperatures than the current criteria. We also recommend issuing cold warnings in winter transitional months. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

2010-12-01

The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

2015-12-01

Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

Puerto Rico Seismic Network Operations During and After the Hurricane Maria: Response, Continuity of Operations, and Experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Baez-Sanchez, G.; Huerfano, V.; Lopez, A. M.; Lugo, J.

2017-12-01

The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is an integral part of earthquake and tsunami monitoring in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The PRSN conducts scientific research as part of the University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, conducts the earthquake monitoring for the region, runs extensive earthquake and tsunami education and outreach programs, and acts as a Tsunami Warning Focal Point Alternate for Puerto Rico. During and in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Maria, the PRSN duties and responsibilities evolved from a seismic network to a major information and communications center for the western side of Puerto Rico. Hurricane Maria effectively destroyed most communications on island, critically between the eastern side of the island where Puerto Rico's Emergency Management's (PREMA) main office and the National Weather Service (NWS) is based and the western side of the island. Additionally, many local emergency management agencies on the western side of the island lost a satellite based emergency management information system called EMWIN which provides critical tsunami and weather information. PRSN's EMWIN system remained functional and consequently via this system and radio communications PRSN became the only information source for NWS warnings and bulletins, tsunami alerts, and earthquake information for western Puerto Rico. Additionally, given the functional radio and geographic location of the PRSN, the network became a critical communications relay for local emergency management. Here we will present the PRSN response in relation to Hurricane Maria including the activation of the PRSN devolution plan, adoption of duties, experiences and lessons learned for continuity of operations and adoption of responsibilities during future catastrophic events.

A global flash flood forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-04-01

The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial resolution appropriate to the NWP system. We then demonstrate how these warning areas could eventually complement existing global systems such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to give warnings of flash floods. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating a global flash flood forecasting system based on forecasts from existing global NWP systems. Future developments, in post-processing for example, will need to address an under-prediction bias, for extreme point rainfall, that is innate to current-generation global models.

A net-centric system of services model for the Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS) and the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardanuy, Philip; Bensman, Ed; Bergen, Bill; Chen, Bob; Griffith, Frank; Sutton, Cary; Hood, Carroll; Ritchie, Adrian; Tarro, Andre

2006-08-01

This paper considers an evolved technique for significantly enhanced enterprise-level data processing, reprocessing, archival, dissemination, and utilization. There is today a robust working paradigm established with the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)-NOAA/NWS's information integration and fusion capability. This process model extends vertically, and seamlessly, from environmental sensing through the direct delivery of societal benefit. NWS, via AWIPS, is the primary source of weather forecast and warning information in the nation. AWIPS is the tested and proven "the nerve center of operations" at all 122 NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs). However, additional line organizations whose role in satisfying NOAA's five mission goals (ecosystems, climate, weather & water, commerce & transportation, and mission support) in multiple program areas might be facilitated through utilization of AWIPS-like functionalities, including the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS); National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS); Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research (OAR); and the National Ocean Service (NOS). In addition to NOAA's mission goals, there are nine diverse, recommended, and important societal benefit areas in the US Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS). This paper shows how the satisfaction of this suite of goals and benefit areas can be optimized by leveraging several key ingredients: (1) the evolution of AWIPS towards a net-centric system of services concept of operations; (2) infusion of technologies and concepts from pathfinder systems; (3) the development of new observing systems targeted at deliberate, and not just serendipitous, societal benefit; and (4) the diverse, nested local, regional, national, and international scales of the different benefits and goal areas, and their interoperability and interplay across the system of systems.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

2015-04-01

The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Air System Information Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Filman, Robert E.

2004-01-01

I flew to Washington last week, a trip rich in distributed information management. Buying tickets, at the gate, in flight, landing and at the baggage claim, myriad messages about my reservation, the weather, our flight plans, gates, bags and so forth flew among a variety of travel agency, airline and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) computers and personnel. By and large, each kind of information ran on a particular application, often specialized to own data formats and communications network. I went to Washington to attend an FAA meeting on System-Wide Information Management (SWIM) for the National Airspace System (NAS) (http://www.nasarchitecture.faa.gov/Tutorials/NAS101.cfm). NAS (and its information infrastructure, SWIM) is an attempt to bring greater regularity, efficiency and uniformity to the collection of stovepipe applications now used to manage air traffic. Current systems hold information about flight plans, flight trajectories, weather, air turbulence, current and forecast weather, radar summaries, hazardous condition warnings, airport and airspace capacity constraints, temporary flight restrictions, and so forth. Information moving among these stovepipe systems is usually mediated by people (for example, air traffic controllers) or single-purpose applications. People, whose intelligence is critical for difficult tasks and unusual circumstances, are not as efficient as computers for tasks that can be automated. Better information sharing can lead to higher system capacity, more efficient utilization and safer operations. Better information sharing through greater automation is possible though not necessarily easy.

Satellite Shows a Mid-Atlantic St. Patrick's Day Snow

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-17

The green of St. Patrick's Day in the Mid-Atlantic was covered by white snow as a result of a late winter snow storm. The covering of the green was captured in a movie made at NASA using NOAA's GOES satellite data. The winter storm dropped snow totals from 6" to 12" of snow from Baltimore, Md. to Richmond, Va. The storm arrived during the evening of March 16 and continued through March 17. As of 1 p.m. EDT, light bands of snow continued to fall throughout the Washington, D.C. area. NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured the path the storm took through the Mid-Atlantic as it moved in from the west on March 15 and dropped snow March 16 and 17. NOAA's GOES-East satellite sits in a fixed orbit in space and captures visible and infrared imagery of all weather over the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean. As of 1 p.m. EDT on March 17, the National Weather Service still maintained a Winter Storm Warning from Cecil County in northeastern Maryland that stretched west to Frederick County. The warning continued in Virginia counties including Clarke, Warren, Rappahannock, Madison and stretched to Albemarle and southwest. Southeastern counties in Virginia south of the city of Fredericksburg remained under a Winter Weather Advisory. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Independent Auditors Report on the Air Force Working Capital Fund FY 2015 and FY 2014 Basic Financial Statements for United States Air Force Agency Financial Report 2015

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-09

missile warning, weather and intelligence warfighting support. AFSPC operates sensors that provide direct attack warning and assessment to U.S...toughness combinations. AFRL conducted low-speed wind tunnel tests of 9%-scale model completed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC); data validated... wireless mobile monitoring capability designed for dismounted Pararescue Jumpers (PJ) called United States Air Force 89 Battlefield Airmen Trauma

Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

2010-05-01

Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability through strong security and workflow capabilities. A physical network diagram and a work flow scheme of all the models, codes and databases used to achieve the NEWS algorithm are presented. They constitute a first step in the development of a platform for providing real time flood forecasting services on the web to mitigate 21st century weather phenomena.

The THOR Project-Reducing the Impact of Thunderstorms on Aviation and the General Public Through a Multi-Agency Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Stephan B.; Pace, David; Goodman, Steven J.; Burgess, Donald W.; Smarsh, David; Roberts, Rita D.; Wolfson, Marilyn M.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Thunderstorms are high impact weather phenomena. They also pose an extremely challenging forecast problem. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), have decided to pool technology and scientific expertise into an unprecedented effort to better observe, diagnose, and forecast thunderstorms. This paper describes plans for an operational field test called the THunderstorm Operational Research (THOR) Project beginning in 2002, the primary goals of which are to: 1) Reduce the number of Thunderstorm-related Air Traffic Delays with in the National Airspace System (NAS) and, 2) Improve severe thunderstorm, tornado and airport thunderstorm warning accuracy and lead time. Aviation field operations will be focused on the prime air traffic bottleneck in the NAS, the airspace bounded roughly by Chicago, New York City and Washington D.C., sometimes called the Northeast Corridor. A variety of new automated thunderstorm forecasting applications will be tested here that, when implemented into FAA-NWS operations, will allow for better tactical decision making and NAS management during thunderstorm days. Severe thunderstorm operations will be centered on Northern Alabama. NWS meteorologists from the forecast office in Birmingham will test the utility of experimental lightning, radar, and profiler data from a mesoscale observing network being established by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. In addition, new tornado detection and thunderstorm nowcasting algorithms will be examined for their potential for improving warning accuracy. The Alabama THOR site will also serve as a test bed for new gridded, digital thunderstorm and flash flood warning products.

Development of Innovative Technology to Provide Low-Cost Surface Atmospheric Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucera, Paul; Steinson, Martin

2016-04-01

Accurate and reliable real-time monitoring and dissemination of observations of surface weather conditions is critical for a variety of societal applications. Applications that provide local and regional information about temperature, precipitation, moisture, and winds, for example, are important for agriculture, water resource monitoring, health, and monitoring of hazard weather conditions. In many regions in Africa (and other global locations), surface weather stations are sparsely located and/or of poor quality. Existing stations have often been sited incorrectly, not well-maintained, and have limited communications established at the site for real-time monitoring. The US National Weather Service (NWS) International Activities Office (IAO) in partnership with University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) has started an initiative to develop and deploy low-cost weather instrumentation in sparsely observed regions of the world. The goal is to provide observations for environmental monitoring, and early warning alert systems that can be deployed at weather services in developing countries. Instrumentation is being designed using innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, Raspberry Pi computing systems, and wireless communications. The initial effort is focused on designing a surface network using GIS-based tools, deploying an initial network in Zambia, and providing training to Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) staff. The presentation will provide an overview of the project concepts, design of the low cost instrumentation, and initial experiences deploying a surface network deployment in Zambia.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service for NOAA, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Joe Pica, director of the Office of Observations for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA’s, National Weather Service, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S, the second spacecraft in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

ADAS Update and Maintainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service Melbourne (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LOIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LOIS was developed by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (AD AS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Over the years, the LDIS has become problematic to maintain since it depends on AMU-developed shell scripts that were written for an earlier version of the ADAS software. The goals of this task were to update the NWS MLB/SMG LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporate new sources of observational data, and upgrade and modify the AMU-developed shell scripts written to govern the system. In addition, the previously developed ADAS graphical user interface (GUI) was updated. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used by both groups.

International Collaboration in Space Weather Situational Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boteler, David; Trichtchenko, Larisa; Danskin, Donald

Space weather is a global phenomena so interntional collaboration is necessary to maintain awareness of potentially dangerous conditions. The Regional Warning Centres (RWCs) of the International Space Environment Service were set up during the International Geophysical Year to alert the scientific community to conditions requiring special measurements. The information sharing continues to this day with URSIGRAM messages exchanged between RWCs to help them produce space weather forecasts. Venturing into space, especially with manned missions, created a need to know about the space environment and particularly radiation dangers to man in space. Responding to this need led to the creation of a network of stations around the world to provide continuous monitoring of solar activity. Solar wind monitoring is now provided by the ACE satellite, operated by one country, but involving international collaborators to bring the information down in real time. Disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field are monitored by many magnetic observatories that are collaborating through INTERMAGNET to provide reliable data. Space weather produces effects on the ionosphere that can interfere with a variety of systems: the International GNSS Service provides information about effects on positioning systems, and the International Space Environment Service is providing information about iono-spheric absorption, particularly for trans-polar airline operations. The increasing availability of internet access, even at remote locations, is making it easier to obtain the raw information. The challenge now is how to integrate that information to provide effective international situational awareness of space weather.

KSC-2009-1077

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A closeup of the replacement weather Doppler radar being installed in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

KSC-2009-1079

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A closeup of the replacement weather Doppler radar being installed in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

KSC-2009-1080

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A closeup of the replacement weather Doppler radar being installed in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

KSC-2009-1078

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A closeup of the replacement weather Doppler radar being installed in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

A NOAA/SWPC Perspective on Space Weather Forecasts That Fail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biesecker, D. A.

2014-12-01

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) at NOAA is the Official US source for space weather watches, warning and alerts. These alerts are provided to a breadth of customers covering a range of industries, including electric utilities, airlines, emergency managers, and users of precision GPS to name a few. This talk will review the current tools used by SWPC to forecast geomagnetic storms, solar flares, and solar energetic particle events and present the SWPC performance in each of these areas. We will include a discussion of the current limitations and examples of events that proved difficult to forecast.

A Photo Storm Report Mobile Application, Processing/Distribution System, and AWIPS-II Display Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longmore, S. P.; Bikos, D.; Szoke, E.; Miller, S. D.; Brummer, R.; Lindsey, D. T.; Hillger, D.

2014-12-01

The increasing use of mobile phones equipped with digital cameras and the ability to post images and information to the Internet in real-time has significantly improved the ability to report events almost instantaneously. In the context of severe weather reports, a representative digital image conveys significantly more information than a simple text or phone relayed report to a weather forecaster issuing severe weather warnings. It also allows the forecaster to reasonably discern the validity and quality of a storm report. Posting geo-located, time stamped storm report photographs utilizing a mobile phone application to NWS social media weather forecast office pages has generated recent positive feedback from forecasters. Building upon this feedback, this discussion advances the concept, development, and implementation of a formalized Photo Storm Report (PSR) mobile application, processing and distribution system and Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS-II) plug-in display software.The PSR system would be composed of three core components: i) a mobile phone application, ii) a processing and distribution software and hardware system, and iii) AWIPS-II data, exchange and visualization plug-in software. i) The mobile phone application would allow web-registered users to send geo-location, view direction, and time stamped PSRs along with severe weather type and comments to the processing and distribution servers. ii) The servers would receive PSRs, convert images and information to NWS network bandwidth manageable sizes in an AWIPS-II data format, distribute them on the NWS data communications network, and archive the original PSRs for possible future research datasets. iii) The AWIPS-II data and exchange plug-ins would archive PSRs, and the visualization plug-in would display PSR locations, times and directions by hour, similar to surface observations. Hovering on individual PSRs would reveal photo thumbnails and clicking on them would display the full resolution photograph.Here, we present initial NWS forecaster feedback received from social media posted PSRs, motivating the possible advantages of PSRs within AWIPS-II, the details of developing and implementing a PSR system, and possible future applications beyond severe weather reports and AWIPS-II.

An outline of the review on space weather in Latin America: space science, research networks and space weather center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Nardin, C. M.; Dasso, S.; Gonzalez-Esparza, A.

2016-12-01

The present work is an outline of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts.

Synopsis of the Review on Space Weather in Latin America: Space Science, Research Networks and Space Weather Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dasso, Sergio; Gonzalez-Esparza, Americo

2016-07-01

The present work is a synopsis of a three-part review on space weather in Latin America. The first paper (part 1) comprises the evolution of several Latin American institutions investing in space science since the 1960's, focusing on the solar-terrestrial interactions, which today is commonly called space weather. Despite recognizing advances in space research in all of Latin America, this part 1 is restricted to the development observed in three countries in particular (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico), due to the fact that these countries have recently developed operational centers for monitoring space weather. The review starts with a brief summary of the first groups to start working with space science in Latin America. This first part of the review closes with the current status and the research interests of these groups, which are described in relation to the most significant works and challenges of the next decade in order to aid in the solving of space weather open issues. The second paper (part 2) comprises a summary of scientific challenges in space weather research that are considered to be open scientific questions and how they are being addressed in terms of instrumentation by the international community, including the Latin American groups. We also provide an inventory of the networks and collaborations being constructed in Latin America, including details on the data processing, capabilities and a basic description of the resulting variables. These instrumental networks currently used for space science research are gradually being incorporated into the space weather monitoring data pipelines as their data provides key variables for monitoring and forecasting space weather, which allow these centers to monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts. The third paper (part 3) presents the decision process for the spinning off of space weather prediction centers from space science groups with our interpretation of the reason/opportunities that leads to this. Lastly, the constraints for the progress in space weather monitoring, research, and forecast are listed with recommendations to overcome them, which we believe will lead to the access of key variables for the monitoring and forecasting space weather, which will allow these centers to better monitor space weather and issue warnings and alerts.

Remote sensing optical instrumentation for enhanced space weather monitoring from the L1 and L5 Lagrange points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraft, S.; Puschmann, K. G.; Luntama, J. P.

2017-09-01

As part of the Space Situational Awareness Programme (SSA), ESA has initiated the assessment of two missions currently foreseen to be implemented to enable enhanced space weather monitoring. These missions utilize the positioning of satellites at the Lagrangian L1 and L5 points. These Phase 0 or Pre-Phase A mission studies are about to be completed and will thereby have soon passed the Mission Definition Review. Phase A studies are planned to start in 2017. The space weather monitoring system currently considers four remote sensing optical instruments and several in-situ instruments to analyse the Sun and the solar wind conditions, in order to provide early warnings of increased solar activity and to identify and mitigate potential threats to society and ground, airborne and space based infrastructure. The suggested optical instruments take heritage from ESA and NASA science missions like SOHO, STEREO and Solar Orbiter, but the instruments are foreseen to be optimized for operational space weather monitoring purposes with high reliability and robustness demands. The instruments are required to provide high quality measurements particularly during severe space weather events. The program intends to utilize the results of the on-going ESA instrument prototyping and technology development activities, and to initiate pre-developments of the operational space weather instruments to ensure the required maturity before the mission implementation.

Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience.

PubMed

Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C

2018-02-01

Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Bill spurs efforts to improve forecasting of inland flooding from tropical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Newly-enacted U.S. legislation to reduce the threat of inland flooding from tropical storms could provide a "laser beam" focus to dealing with this natural hazard, according to Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.), the chief sponsor of the bill.The Tropical Cyclone Inland Forecasting Improvement and Warning System Development Act, (PL. 107-253), signed into law on 29 October, authorizes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) to improve the capability to accurately forecast inland flooding from tropical storms through research and modeling.

Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

Solar photovoltaics: Stand alone applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deyo, J. N.

1980-11-01

The Lewis Research Center involvement in space photovoltaic research and development and in using photovoltaics for terrestrial applications is described with emphasis on applications in which the normal source of power may be a diesel generator, batteries, or other types of power not connected to a utility grid. Once an application is processed, technology is developed and demonstrated with a user who participates in the cost and furnishes the site. Projects completed related to instruments, communication, refrigeration, and highways, are described as well as warning systems, weather stations, fire lookouts, and village power systems. A commercially available photovoltaic powered electric fence charger is the result of Lewis research and development.

Integrating Windblown Dust Forecasts with Public Safety and Health Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprigg, W. A.

2014-12-01

Experiments in real-time prediction of desert dust emissions and downstream plume concentrations (~ 3.5 km near-surface spatial resolution) succeed to the point of challenging public safety and public health services to beta test a dust storm warning and advisory system in lowering risks of highway and airline accidents and illnesses such as asthma and valley fever. Key beta test components are: high-resolution models of dust emission, entrainment and diffusion, integrated with synoptic weather observations and forecasts; satellite-based detection and monitoring of soil properties on the ground and elevated above; high space and time resolution for health surveillance and transportation advisories.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Climate Prediction Center - Forecasts & Outlook Maps, Graphs and Tables

Science.gov Websites

moisture, and a forecast for daily ultraviolet (UV) radiation index. Many of the outlook maps have an watches and warnings to protect life and property from acute short-term threats due to severe weather

WPC's Short Range Forecasts (Days 0.5 - 2.5) - Black and White

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Radar Imagery GOES-East Satellite GOES-West Satellite National Radar Product Archive WPC

What You Need to Know When the Power Goes Out Unexpectedly

MedlinePlus

... Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ... PSAs for Disasters Resources for Emergency Health Professionals Social Media Health and Safety Concerns for All Disasters Animals ...

Global Lightning Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christian, Hugh J.

2004-01-01

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the advent of spacebased lightning observations. Of major importance was the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD), followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous eight-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiency and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (44 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available over large areas of the earth (+/- 72 deg. latitude). Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly reveled, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The space-based observations indicate that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm system dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated that this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates. This talk will summarize our space-based lightning measurements, will discuss how lightning observations can be used to monitor severe weather, and present a concept for continuous geostationary-based lightning observations.

Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates for drought and flood monitoring in Mozambique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tote, Carolien; Patricio, Domingos; Boogaard, Hendrik; van der Wijngaart, Raymond; Tarnavsky, Elena; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, K.; Panziera, L.; Germann, U.; Zappa, M.

2013-10-01

This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel radar-based ensemble forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecasts for the same catchments. The first radar-based ensemble forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second ensemble forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialised with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. A clear preference was found for the ensemble approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA and REAL-C2 rather then by deterministic weather radar data. Moreover, it was observed that using an ensemble of initial conditions at the forecast initialisation, as in REAL-C2, significantly improved the forecast skill. These forecasts also perform better then forecasts forced by ensemble rainfall forecasts (NORA) initialised form a single initial condition of the hydrological model. Thus the best results were obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice

Science.gov Websites

individuals to become weather-ready by ensuring you have real-time access to flood warnings via mobile devices and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels. NOAA Mobile

Chapter 5: Quality assurance/quality control in stormwater sampling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sampling the quality of stormwater presents unique challenges because stormwater flow is relatively short-lived with drastic variability. Furthermore, storm events often occur with little advance warning, outside conventional work hours, and under adverse weather conditions. Therefore, most stormwat...

ForWarn: A Cross-Cutting Forest Resource Management and Decision Support System Providing the Capacity to Identify and Track Forest Disturbances Nationally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Norman, S.; Christie, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

2012-12-01

The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. It has operated as a prototype since January 2010 and has provided useful information about the location and extent of disturbances detected during the 2011 growing season, including tornadoes, wildfires, and extreme drought. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the web through the ForWarn Change Assessment Viewer at http://forwarn.forestthreats.org/fcav. No user id or password is required, and there is no cost. The Assessment Viewer operates within any popular web browser using nearly any type of computer. It lets users pan, zoom, and scroll around within ForWarn maps, and also contains an up-to-date library of co-registered, near real-time ancillary maps from diverse sources that allows users to assess the nature of particular forest disturbances and ascribe their most-likely causes. Users can check the current week's U.S. Drought Monitor, USGS VegDRI maps, FHM Historical Aerial Disturbance Surveys, MODIS Cumulative Current Year Fire Detections, and many others. A "Share this map" feature lets users save the current map view and extent into a web URL, so that users can easily share what they are looking at inside the Assessment Viewer with others via an email, a document, or a web page. The ForWarn Rapid National Assessment Team examined more than 60 ForWarn forest disturbance events in 2011-2012, and issued over 30 alerts. We hope to automate forest disturbance alerts and supply them through various subscription services. Forest owners and managers would only be alerted to disturbances occurring near their own forest resources.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Dan Lindsey, GOES-R senior scientific advisor for NOAA, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Jason Townsend, NASA's social media manager, speaks to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Steve Cole of NASA Communications speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

A Drought Early Warning System Using System Dynamics Model and Seasonal Climate Forecasts: a case study in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu

2016-04-01

In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. Moreover, the model can also provide the information under certain emergency scenarios, such as the accident or failure of a water treatment plant. At last, the performance of the proposed method and the original water resource management method that the government used were also compared. Keyword: Water Resource Management, Hydrology, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Reservoir, Early Warning, Drought

Regional Assessment of Storm-triggered Shall Landslide Risks using the SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Kirschbaum, D. B.; Fukuoka, H.

2011-12-01

The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. An early warning system applying such physical models has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island in Indonesia and Honduras. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping or hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically-based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE (SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium). The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a Factor of Safety (FS) that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. The system's prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory. In Java Island, Indonesia, evaluation of SLIDE modeling results by local news reports shows that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Further study of SLIDE is implemented in Honduras where Hurricane Mitch triggered widespread landslides in 1998. Results shows within the approximately 1,200 square kilometers study areas, the values of hit rates reached as high as 78% and 75%, while the error indices were 35% and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited in the early warning system by several assumptions including, using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this model will be discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. In conclusion, integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets and physical models in this prototype system enable us to further develop a regional early warning tool in the future for forecasting storm-induced landslides.

Tourism hazard potentials in Mount Merapi: how to deal with the risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthiah, J.; Muntasib, E. K. S. H.; Meilani, R.

2018-05-01

Mount Merapi as one of the most popular natural tourism destination in Indonesia, indicated as disaster prone area. Hazard management is required to ensure visitors safety. Hazard identification and mapping are prerequisite in developing proper hazard management recommendation. This study aimed to map hazard potentials’ geographical positions obtained with geographical positioning system and to identify the hazard management being implemented. Data collection was carried out in Mei – June 2017 through observation and interview. Hiking trail and Lava tour area was selected as the study site, since the sites are the main areas for tourism activities in Mount Merapi. The type of hazards found in the area included lava, tephra, eruption cloud, ash, earthquake, land slide, extreme weather, slope and loose rock. Early warning system had been developed in this area, however the mechanism to regulate tourism activities still had to be improved. Local tourism entrepreneurs should be involved in the network of early warning system stakeholders to ensure tourist safety, and their capacity should be improved in order to be able to perform the measures needed for handling accident and disaster occurrences. Interpretive media explaining hazard potentials may be used to improve visitors’ awareness and ability to cope with the risk.

Road Weather and Connected Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisano, P.; Boyce, B. C.

2015-12-01

On average, there are over 5.8 M vehicle crashes each year of which 23% are weather-related. Weather-related crashes are defined as those crashes that occur in adverse weather or on slick pavement. The vast majority of weather-related crashes happen on wet pavement (74%) and during rainfall (46%). Connected vehicle technologies hold the promise to transform road-weather management by providing improved road weather data in real time with greater temporal and geographic accuracy. This will dramatically expand the amount of data that can be used to assess, forecast, and address the impacts that weather has on roads, vehicles, and travelers. The use of vehicle-based measurements of the road and surrounding atmosphere with other, more traditional weather data sources, and create road and atmospheric hazard products for a variety of users. The broad availability of road weather data from mobile sources will vastly improve the ability to detect and forecast weather and road conditions, and will provide the capability to manage road-weather response on specific roadway links. The RWMP is currently demonstrating how weather, road conditions, and related vehicle data can be used for decision making through an innovative Integrated Mobile Observations project. FHWA is partnering with 3 DOTs (MN, MI, & NV) to pilot these applications. One is a mobile alerts application called the Motorists Advisories and Warnings (MAW) and a maintenance decision support application. These applications blend traditional weather information (e.g., radar, surface stations) with mobile vehicle data (e.g., temperature, brake status, wiper status) to determine current weather conditions. These weather conditions, and other road-travel-relevant information, are provided to users via web and phone applications. The MAW provides nowcasts and short-term forecasts out to 24 hours while the EMDSS application can provide forecasts up to 72 hours in advance. The three DOTs have placed readers and external road weather sensors on their maintenance fleet vehicles to collect vehicular and meteorological data. Data from all three states is sent to a processing system called the Pikalert® Vehicle Data Translator (VDT) that quality checks and uses the data to infer current and forecasted weather conditions.

The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Martin, V; Chevalier, V; Ceccato, P; Anyamba, A; De Simone, L; Lubroth, J; de La Rocque, S; Domenech, J

2008-08-01

Climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends. Climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. Extreme weather events might then create the necessary conditions for Rift Valley fever to expand its geographical range northwards and cross the Mediterranean and Arabian seas, with an unexpected impact on the animal and human health of newly affected countries. Strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures.

View from Space Shows Winter Storm Sweep Over U.S. East Coast

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-03-05

A winter storm was bringing snow, sleet and freezing rain from lower Mississippi Valley to Northeastern U.S. on Thursday, March 5, 2015. A new NASA animation of NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery showed the progression of the clouds associated with the storm system that triggered winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories from the southern Plains eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. The system also triggered flood warnings along and to the west of the central Appalachians. An animation of GOES satellite visible and infrared imagery from March 3 through March 5 showed clouds associated with a cold front push over U.S. East coast. Behind the front, Arctic air is expected to drop low temperatures into the single numbers from Washington, D.C. to Minnesota overnight. Temperatures in the Carolinas and Tennessee are expected to drop to the low 20s. NOAA's National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (NWS NPC) in College Park, Maryland noted "a strong cold front moving across the eastern U.S. will bring heavy snow from parts of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast today (March 5) with rain, freezing rain and sleet possible from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley across the Southeast to the southern Mid-Atlantic. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible for some areas. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect from Texas to Nantucket." The animation ends at 17:45 UTC (12:45 p.m. EST). Before the end of the animation, the low pressure center along an arctic frontal boundary was nearly stationary over western North Carolina at 9 a.m. EST on March 5, according to the NWS NPC. NWS radar and surface observations indicated an extended swath of precipitation from near the Texas Gulf Coast through the interior eastern U.S. into southern New England. NPC's storm summary noted at that time "rain was changing to sleet/freezing rain and to all snow along a band within this swath as colder air continues to filter in from the north. Some areas in Tennessee, the northern mid-Atlantic and southern New England were reporting moderate to heavy snow." To create the video and imagery, NASA/NOAA's GOES Project takes the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite and overlays it on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, those data created the entire picture of the storm and show its movement. After the storm system passes, the snow on the ground becomes visible. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. For updated information about the storm system, visit NOAA's NWS website: www.weather.gov For more information about GOES satellites, visit: www.goes.noaa.gov/ or goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Rob Gutro NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

An operational real-time flood forecasting system in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, Enrique; Coccia, Gabriele; Todini, Ezio

2015-04-01

A real-time flood forecasting system has been operating since year 2012 as a non-structural measure for mitigating the flood risk in Campania Region (Southern Italy), within the Sele river basin (3.240 km2). The Sele Flood Forecasting System (SFFS) has been built within the FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) platform developed by Deltares and it assimilates the numerical weather predictions of the COSMO LAM family: the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I2, the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I7 and the ensemble numerical weather predictions COSMO-LEPS (16 members). Sele FFS is composed by a cascade of three main models. The first model is a fully continuous physically based distributed hydrological model, named TOPKAPI-eXtended (Idrologia&Ambiente s.r.l., Naples, Italy), simulating the dominant processes controlling the soil water dynamics, runoff generation and discharge with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The second module is a set of Neural-Networks (ANN) built for forecasting the river stages at a set of monitored cross-sections. The third component is a Model Conditional Processor (MCP), which provides the predictive uncertainty (i.e., the probability of occurrence of a future flood event) within the framework of a multi-temporal forecast, according to the most recent advancements on this topic (Coccia and Todini, HESS, 2011). The MCP provides information about the probability of exceedance of a maximum river stage within the forecast lead time, by means of a discrete time function representing the variation of cumulative probability of exceeding a river stage during the forecast lead time and the distribution of the time occurrence of the flood peak, starting from one or more model forecasts. This work shows the Sele FFS performance after two years of operation, evidencing the added-values that can provide to a flood early warning and emergency management system.

The LATEST Project: Operational Assessment of Total Lightning Data in the U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven

2004-01-01

A government, university, and industry alliance has joined forces to transition total lightning observations from ground-based research networks and NASA satellites (LIS/TRMM) to improve the short range prediction of severe weather. This interest builds on the desire of the U.S Weather Research Program to foster a national Nowcasting Test Bed, with this specific transition activity initiated through the NASA short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL. A kick-off national workshop sponsored by the SPoRT Center was held in Huntsville April 1-2 to identify the common goals and objectives of the research and operational community, and to assign roles and responsibilities within the alliance. The workshop agenda, presentations, and summary are available at the SPoRT Center Web site ( h h under the "Meetings" tab. The next national workshop is planned for 2005 in Dallas, TX. The NASA North Alabama regional Lightning Mapping Array &MA) has been operational in the Huntsville area for 3 years, and has continuously sampled a variety of severe weather systems during that period. A gridded version of the LMA total lightning data is currently being supplied to National Weather Service offices in Huntsville, Nashville and Birmingham through the NWS AWES decision support system, for the purposes of assessing the utility of the data in the nowcasting of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, flash flooding and other weather hazards (lightning induced forest fires, microbursts). While the raw LMA data have been useful to NWS forecasters, even greater utility would be realized if higher-order data products could be supplied through AWIPS along with the gridded data over a larger domain. In 2003-2004 additional LMA systems have been deployed across the southern US. from Florida to New Mexico, providing an opportunity for more than 20 NWS forecast offices to evaluate the incremental value of total lightning data in the warning decision making process.

Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.

2013-12-01

In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.

KSC-2009-3842

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-06-25

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Bart Hagemeyer, at left, meteorologist in charge, NOAA National Weather Service forecast office, Melbourne, Fla., and Joel Tumbiolo, Delta IV launch weather officer, 45th Weather Squadron, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, participate in a prelaunch news conference on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-O mission in NASA's Kennedy Space Center press site auditorium. The GOES-O satellite is targeted to launch June 26. The latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-O was developed by NASA for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. Each of the GOES satellites continuously provides observations of 60 percent of the Earth including the continental United States, providing weather monitoring and forecast operations as well as a continuous and reliable stream of environmental information and severe weather warnings. Once in orbit, GOES-O will be designated GOES-14, and NASA will provide on-orbit checkout and then transfer operational responsibility to NOAA. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

Solar photovoltaics: Stand alone applications. [NASA Lewis Research Center research and development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deyo, J. N.

1980-01-01

The Lewis Research Center involvement in space photovoltaic research and development and in using photovoltaics for terrestrial applications is described with emphasis on applications in which the normal source of power may be a diesel generator, batteries, or other types of power not connected to a utility grid. Once an application is processed, technology is developed and demonstrated with a user who participates in the cost and furnishes the site. Projects completed related to instruments, communication, refrigeration, and highways, are described as well as warning systems, weather stations, fire lookouts, and village power systems. A commercially available photovoltaic powered electric fence charger is the result of Lewis research and development.

GEONETCast Americas - Architecture

Science.gov Websites

, - Improving weather information, forecasting and warning, - Improving the management and protection of information as a basis for sound decision making, and will enhance delivery of benefits to society." as management of energy resources, - Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate

National Forecast Charts

Science.gov Websites

Summaries Heat Index Tropical Products Daily Weather Map GIS Products Current Watches/ Warnings Satellite and Training WPC HydroMet Testbed Development Experimental Products WPC Overview About the WPC Mission and Vision Staff WPC History About Our Products Accomplishments Other Sites FAQs Meteorological

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida, Phase 2, Part 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2007-01-01

The threat of lightning is a daily concern during the warm season in Florida. The forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Spaceflight Center in Houston, TX consider lightning in their landing forecasts for space shuttles at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), FL Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF). The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) do the same in their routine Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) for seven airports in the NWS MLB County Warning Area (CWA). The Applied Meteorology Unit created flow regime climatologies of lightning probability in the 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-n mi circles surrounding the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) and all airports in the NWS MLB county warning area in 1-, 3-, and 6-hour increments. The results were presented in tabular and graphical format and incorporated into a web-based graphical user interface so forecasters could easily navigate through the data and to make the GUI usable in any web browser on computers with different operating systems.

Relationship between work-related accidents and hot weather conditions in Tuscany (central Italy).

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Crisci, Alfonso; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Orlandini, Simone

2006-07-01

Nowadays, no studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological conditions and work-related mortality and morbidity in Italy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between hot weather conditions and hospital admissions due to work-related accidents in Tuscany (central Italy) over the period 1998-2003. Apparent temperature (AT) values were calculated to evaluate human weather discomfort due to hot conditions and then tested for work accident differences using non-parametric procedures. Present findings showed that hot weather conditions might represent a risk factor for work-related accidents in Italy during summer. In particular early warming days during June, characterized by heat discomfort, are less tolerated by workers than warming days of the following summer months. The peak of work-related accidents occurred on days characterized by high, but not extreme, thermal conditions. Workers maybe change their behaviour when heat stress increases, reducing risks by adopting preventive measures. Results suggested that days with an average daytime AT value ranged between 24.8 degrees C and 27.5 degrees C were at the highest risk of work-related accidents. In conclusion, present findings might represent the first step for the development of a watch/warning system for workers that might be used by employers for planning work activities.

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William

2008-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornado activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications.

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William; Petersen, Walt; Buechler, Dennis; Krehbiel, Paul; Gatlin, Patrick; Zubrick, Steven

2008-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational.The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sate]lite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Abstract for the 3 rd Conference on Meteorological

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed Central

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-01-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation. PMID:11359686

Reducing Loss of Life and Property from Disasters: A Societal Benefit Area of the Strategic Plan for U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helz, Rosalind L.; Gaynor, John E.

2007-01-01

Natural and technological disasters, such as hurricanes and other extreme weather events, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and debris flows, wildland and urban-interface fires, floods, oil spills, and space-weather storms, impose a significant burden on society. Throughout the United States, disasters inflict many injuries and deaths, and cost the nation $20 billion each year (SDR, 2003). Disasters in other countries can affect U.S. assets and interests overseas (e.g. the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which effectively destroyed Clark Air Force Base). Also, because they have a disproportionate impact on developing countries, disasters are major barriers to sustainable development. Improving our ability to assess, predict, monitor, and respond to hazardous events is a key factor in reducing the occurrence and severity of disasters, and relies heavily on the use of information from well-designed and integrated Earth observation systems. To fully realize the benefits gained from the observation systems, the information derived must be disseminated through effective warning systems and networks, with products tailored to the needs of the end users and the general public.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, K.; Ager, A.; Finney, M.; Athanasis, N.; Palaiologou, P.; Vasilakos, C.

2015-10-01

A Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) was developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing access to information that is essential for wildfire management. Databases were created with spatial and non-spatial data to support key system functionalities. Updated land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye) to be used as inputs in fire propagation modeling with the Minimum Travel Time algorithm. End users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations; i.e. single-fire propagations, conditional burn probabilities and at the landscape-level, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANN) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps produced an integrated output map for fire danger prediction. The system also incorporates weather measurements from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The structure of the algorithms relies on parallel processing techniques (i.e. High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power and speed. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative mobile application, AEGIS App, acts as a complementary tool to the web-based version of the system.

Fifth Space Weather Enterprise Forum Reaches New Heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2011-09-01

As the world's commercial infrastructure grows more dependent on sensitive electronics and space-based technologies, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to solar storms. Experts from the federal government, academia, and the private sector met to discuss the societal effects of major solar storms and other space weather at the fifth annual Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), held on 21 June 2011 at the National Press Club in Washington, D. C. More than 200 members of the space weather community attended this year's SWEF, which focused on the consequences of severe space weather for national security, critical infrastructure, and human safety. Participants also addressed the question of how to prepare for and mitigate those consequences as the current solar cycle approaches and reaches its peak, expected in 2013. This year's forum included details of plans for a "Unified National Space Weather Capability," a new interagency initiative which will be implemented over the next two years, designed to improve forecasting, warning, and other services ahead of the coming solar maximum.

KSC-2009-1084

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A replacement weather Doppler radar has been installed on top of this tower in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The radome houses the rotating antenna and pedestal and protects them from the elements. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

KSC-2009-1082

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A replacement weather Doppler radar has been installed on top of this tower in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The radome houses the rotating antenna and pedestal and protects them from the elements. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

KSC-2009-1081

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A replacement weather Doppler radar has been installed in the radome on top of this tower in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The dome houses the rotating antenna and pedestal and protects them from the elements. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

KSC-2009-1083

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-01-08

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A replacement weather Doppler radar has been installed on top of this tower in a remote field located west of NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The radome houses the rotating antenna and pedestal and protects them from the elements. The tower is 100 feet high; the radome is 22 feet in diameter, the antenna 14 feet in diameter. It rotates at 6 rpm. The structure can withstand 130 mph winds. It is undergoing initial testing and expected to become operational in the summer. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria for space shuttle and rocket launches. Photo credit: NASA/Troy Cryder

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, George Morrow, deputy director of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

GOES-S Mission Science Briefing

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-27

In the Kennedy Space Center's Press Site auditorium, Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, speaks to members of the media at a mission briefing on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill

2008-01-01

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

Model Development for Risk Assessment of Driving on Freeway under Rainy Weather Conditions

PubMed Central

Cai, Xiaonan; Wang, Chen; Chen, Shengdi; Lu, Jian

2016-01-01

Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers’ subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers’ perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors) using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions. PMID:26894434

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

2011-01-01

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Classification and machine recognition of severe weather patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, P. P.; Burns, R. C.

1976-01-01

Forecasting and warning of severe weather conditions are treated from the vantage point of pattern recognition by machine. Pictorial patterns and waveform patterns are distinguished. Time series data on sferics are dealt with by considering waveform patterns. A severe storm patterns recognition machine is described, along with schemes for detection via cross-correlation of time series (same channel or different channels). Syntactic and decision-theoretic approaches to feature extraction are discussed. Active and decayed tornados and thunderstorms, lightning discharges, and funnels and their related time series data are studied.

Global Lightning Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christian, Hugh

2003-01-01

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous seven-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (CG and IC) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiencies and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (46 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available for large areas of the earth (+/- 72deg latitude) Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly revealed, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The data set indicates that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm systems dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated hat this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates.

Comparing exposure metrics for classifying ‘dangerous heat’ in heat wave and health warning systems

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Rood, Richard B.; Michailidis, George; Oswald, Evan M.; Schwartz, Joel D.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Ebi, Kristie L.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2012-01-01

Heat waves have been linked to excess mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with a warming climate. This study compares exposure metrics to trigger heat wave and health warning systems (HHWS), and introduces a novel multi-level hybrid clustering method to identify potential dangerously hot days. Two-level and three-level hybrid clustering analysis as well as common indices used to trigger HHWS, including spatial synoptic classification (SSC); and 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of minimum and relative minimum temperature (using a 10 day reference period), were calculated using a summertime weather dataset in Detroit from 1976 to 2006. The days classified as ‘hot’ with hybrid clustering analysis, SSC, minimum and relative minimum temperature methods differed by method type. SSC tended to include the days with, on average, 2.6 °C lower daily minimum temperature and 5.3 °C lower dew point than days identified by other methods. These metrics were evaluated by comparing their performance in predicting excess daily mortality. The 99th percentile of minimum temperature was generally the most predictive, followed by the three-level hybrid clustering method, the 95th percentile of minimum temperature, SSC and others. Our proposed clustering framework has more flexibility and requires less substantial meteorological prior information than the synoptic classification methods. Comparison of these metrics in predicting excess daily mortality suggests that metrics thought to better characterize physiological heat stress by considering several weather conditions simultaneously may not be the same metrics that are better at predicting heat-related mortality, which has significant implications in HHWSs. PMID:22673187

What the Heliophysics System Observatory is teaching us about future constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelopoulos, V.

2017-12-01

Owing to the benign space weather during the recent solar cycle numerous Heliophysics missions have outlived their original purpose and have exceeded expectations in terms of science return. The simultaneous availability of several multi-spacecraft fleets also offers conjunction opportunities that compounds their science yield. It allows the Heliophysics System, a vast region of Sun-Earth interactions, to be peered through the colletive eyes of a fortuitous grand Observatory. The success of this Heliophysics/Geospace System Observatory (H/GSO) has been partly due to fuel resources available on THEMIS, allowing it to reconfigure its orbit lines of apsides, apogees and mean anomalies to optimize conjunctions with the rest of the H/GSO. The other part of the success has been a mandatory open data policy, the accessibility of the data though common data formats, unified analysis tools (e.g. SPEDAS) and distributed data repositories. Future constellations are motivated by the recent science lessons learned: Tight connections between dayside and nightside processes, evidenced by fortuitous conjunctions of ground and space-based assets, suggest that regional activations drive classical global modes of circulation. Like regional tornadoes and hurricanes synthesize global atmospheric weather that cannot be studied with 5 weather stations alone, one per continent, so do dayside reconnection, and nightside injections require more than a handful of point measurements. Like atmospheric weather, space weather too requires networks of stations built to meet a minimum set of requirements to "play together" and build on each other over time. Like Argo's >3000 buoys have revolutionized research, modeling and prediction by global circulation models, "space buoys" can study space weather fronts and double-up as monitors and inputs to space weather models, increasing fidelity and advance warning. Reconfigurability can allow versatility as the scientific targets adjust to the knowledge gained over the years. Classical single-satellite, multi-sensor or imaging missions can benefit from the context that constellations provide. CubeSats, a disruptive technology, are catalysts for the emergence of constellations, a new research and operations asset for Heliophysics.

Educating and Preparing for Tsunamis in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aliaga, B.; Edwards, S.

2013-12-01

The Caribbean and Adjacent Regions has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 75 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Just since 1842, 3446 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million, over 40 million visitors a year and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along its shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. The only way to survive a tsunami is to get out of harm's way before the waves strike. In the Caribbean given the relatively short distances from faults, potential submarine landslides and volcanoes to some of the coastlines, the tsunamis are likely to be short fused, so it is imperative that tsunami warnings be issued extremely quickly and people be educated on how to recognize and respond. Nevertheless, given that tsunamis occur infrequently as compared with hurricanes, it is a challenge for them to receive the priority they require in order to save lives when the next one strikes the region. Close cooperation among countries and territories is required for warning, but also for education and public awareness. Geographical vicinity and spoken languages need to be factored in when developing tsunami preparedness in the Caribbean, to make sure citizens receive a clear, reliable and sound science based message about the hazard and the risk. In 2006, in the wake of the Indian Ocean tsunami and after advocating without success for a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System since the mid 90's, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO established the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS). Its purpose is to advance an end to end tsunami warning system that serves regionally and delivers locally, saving lives and livelihoods, not only from tsunamis, but all coastal hazards. Through this and other platforms, physical and social scientists, emergency managers and elected officials have been working together via different mechanisms. Community based recognition programs, like the TsunamiReadyTM Program, regional tsunami exercises, sub-regional public education activities such as the Tsunami Smart campaigns, internet technologies, social media, meetings and conferences, identification of local and national champions, capitalization of news breaking tsunamis and earthquakes, economic resources for equipment and training have all been key to developing a tsunami safer Caribbean. Given these efforts, according to a 2013 survey, 93% of the countries covered by CARIBE EWS have tsunami response protocols in place, although much more work is required. In 2010 the US National Weather Service established the Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program as the first step towards a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center in the region. In 2013 the Caribbean Tsunami Information Center was established in Barbados. Both these institutions which serve the region play a key role for promoting both the warning and educational components of the warning system.

Experiences in regional landslide forecasting from Piemonte region (North-western Italy) and South-Eastern Norway between the 15th and the 23rd of May 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiranti, Davide; Boje, Søren; Cremonini, Roberto; Devoli, Graziella; Sund, Monica

2017-04-01

Although Italy and Norway belongs to different climates, they can be influenced by the same large low pressure systems. On May 2013, ARPA in Piemonte region and NVE in Norway issued warning for flood and landslides due to the arriving of a deep and large low pressure (known as Vb-tief). This type of weather is well known to produce the largest floods in Europe. Recent studies in Norway confirm that similar systems are also responsible of triggering landslide events. In this contribution we present how the existing forecasting systems in Piemonte region and in Norway react and we summarize our experiences. Regional early warning systems (EWS) are operational both in Piemonte region (Italy) and nationally in Norway to forecast shallow landslides, debris flows and debris avalanches. Both EWSs provides daily landslide hazard assessments based on quantitative thresholds and daily rainfall forecasts coupled with qualitative expert analysis. The ARPA Piemonte warning system has been operational since 1994 while the NVE one since 2013: daily bulletins are published respectively by http://www.arpa.piemonte.gov.it/rischinaturali and www.varsom.no. From 15th May to 19nd June 2013, ARPA Piemonte rain gauges recorded more that 200mm in Piemonte and 60-90cm fresh snow over the Alps above 2000m asl. Several rivers were flooded and diffuse landslides were occurred over all the region. In Norway the same weather type lasts a bit longer from 15th May to 2nd June 2013. South-Eastern Norway received a lot of rain distributed in 2 major events, the 15th - 16th of May and between the 22nd and 23rd of May. In addition, high temperatures produced intense snow melting over a large area. Snow depth was less than normal but the snow melted within two weeks while the frost in the area was deeper than normal. From 21st to 23rd May heavy rainfall, over 70 mm in a few hours, fell over the Glomma river basin, especially over Gudbrandsdalen, causing extensive flood along Glomma river and hundreds of landslides. The large floods and landslides caused extensive damages to roads and railways as well as buildings and other infrastructure in both countries. In Norway, the Oppland and Hedmark counties suffered most of the damages, as well as railway lines and road line estimated at over 175000 Euro.

NOAA releases final report of Sandy service assessment

Science.gov Websites

released a report on the National Weather Service's performance during hurricane/post tropical cyclone Sandy. The report, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy Service Assessment, reaffirms that the National warnings for dangerous storms like Sandy, even when they are expected to become post-tropical cyclones by

Effects of atmospheric pressure trends on calling, mate-seeking, and phototaxis of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Insects and other animals sometimes modify behavior in response to changes in atmospheric pressure, an environmental cue that can provide warning of potentially injurious windy and rainy weather. To determine if Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae) calling, mate-seeking, and phototaxis behaviors w...

30 WS North Base Wind Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark

2011-01-01

The 30 Weather Squadron (30 WS) is concerned about strong winds observed at their northern towers without advance warning. They state that terrain influences along the extreme northern fringes of Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) make it difficult for forecasters to issue timely and accurate high wind warnings for northeasterly wind events. These events tend to occur during the winter or early spring when they are under the influence of the Great Basin high pressure weather regime. The Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) have seen these rapid wind increases in the current northern Towers 60, 70 and 71 in excess of their 35 kt operational warning threshold. For this task, the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze data from days when these towers reported winds in excess of 35 kt and determine if there were any precursors in the observations that would allow the LWOs to better forecast and warn their operational customers for these wind events. The 30 WS provided wind tower data for the cool season (October - March) from the period January 2004-March 20 IO. The AMU decoded and evaluated the wind tower data for 66 days identified by the 30 WS as having high-wind events. Out of the 66 event days, only 30 had wind speed observations of > or =35 kt from at least one of the three northern towers. The AMU analyzed surface and upper air charts to determine the synoptic conditions for each event day along with tower peak wind speed and direction time series and wind rose charts for all 30 event days. The analysis revealed a trend on all event days in which the tower winds shifted to the northeast for a period of time before the first recorded > or =35 kt wind speed. The time periods for the 30 event days ranged from 20 minutes to several hours, with a median value of 110 minutes. This trend, if monitored, could give the 30 WS forecasters a precursor to assist in issuing an operational warning before a high wind event occurs. The AMU recommends developing a high-wind alert capability for VAFB using a local mesoscale model to forecast these wind events. The model should incorporate all of the VAFB local data sets and have a forecast capability of between 2 to 24 hours. Such a model would allow the meteorologists at VAFB to alert the operational customers of high wind events in a timely manner so protective action could be taken.

"Big Data Assimilation" for 30-second-update 100-m-mesh Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyoshi, Takemasa; Lien, Guo-Yuan; Kunii, Masaru; Ruiz, Juan; Maejima, Yasumitsu; Otsuka, Shigenori; Kondo, Keiichi; Seko, Hiromu; Satoh, Shinsuke; Ushio, Tomoo; Bessho, Kotaro; Kamide, Kazumi; Tomita, Hirofumi; Nishizawa, Seiya; Yamaura, Tsuyoshi; Ishikawa, Yutaka

2017-04-01

A typical lifetime of a single cumulonimbus is within an hour, and radar observations often show rapid changes in only a 5-minute period. For precise prediction of such rapidly-changing local severe storms, we have developed what we call a "Big Data Assimilation" (BDA) system that performs 30-second-update data assimilation cycles at 100-m grid spacing. The concept shares that of NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast (WoF), in which rapidly-updated high-resolution NWP will play a central role in issuing severe-storm warnings even only minutes in advance. The 100-m resolution and 30-second update frequency are a leap above typical recent research settings, and it was possible by the fortunate combination of Japan's most advanced supercomputing and sensing technologies: the 10-petaflops K computer and the Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR). The X-band PAWR is capable of a dense three-dimensional volume scan at 100-m range resolution with 100 elevation angles and 300 azimuth angles, up to 60-km range within 30 seconds. The PAWR data show temporally-smooth evolution of convective rainstorms. This gives us a hope that we may assume the Gaussian error distribution in 30-second forecasts before strong nonlinear dynamics distort the error distribution for rapidly-changing convective storms. With this in mind, we apply the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) that considers flow-dependent error covariance explicitly under the Gaussian-error assumption. The flow-dependence would be particularly important in rapidly-changing convective weather. Using a 100-member ensemble at 100-m resolution, we have tested the Big Data Assimilation system in real-world cases of sudden local rainstorms, and obtained promising results. However, the real-time application is a big challenge, and currently it takes 10 minutes for a cycle. We explore approaches to accelerating the computations, such as using single-precision arrays in the model computation and developing an efficient I/O middleware for passing the large data between model and data assimilation as quickly as possible. In this presentation, we will present the most up-to-date progress of our Big Data Assimilation research.

How soon is too soon? When to cancel a warning after a damaging tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryer, G. J.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Weinstein, S.; Richards, K.

2012-12-01

Following an earthquake a tsunami warning center (TWC) must determine if a coastal evacuation is necessary and must do so fast enough for the warning to be useful to affected coastlines. Once a damaging tsunami has arrived, the TWC must decide when to cancel its warning, a task often more challenging than the initial hazard assessment. Here we demonstrate the difficulties by investigating the impact of the Tohoku tsunami of 11 March 2011 on the State of Hawaii, which relies on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) for tsunami hazard guidance. PTWC issued a Tsunami Watch for Hawaii at 10 March 1956 HST (10 minutes after the earthquake) and upgraded to a Tsunami Warning at 2131 HST. The tsunami arrived in Hawaii just before 0300 HST the next day, reached a maximum runup of over 5 m, and did roughly $50 million in damage throughout the state. PTWC downgraded the Warning to an Advisory at 0730 HST, and canceled the Advisory at 1140 HST. The timing of the downgrade was appropriate—by then it was safe for coastal residents to re-enter the evacuation zone but not to enter the water—but in retrospect PTWC cancelled its Advisory too early. By late morning tide gauges throughout the state had all registered maximum wave heights of 30 cm or less for a couple of hours, so PTWC cancelled. The Center was unaware, however, of ocean behavior at locations without instruments. At Ma'alaea Harbor on the Island of Maui, for example, sea level oscillations exposed the harbor bottom every 20 minutes for several hours after the cancellation. At Waikiki on Oahu, lifeguards rescued 25 swimmers (who had either ignored or were unaware of the cancellation message's caution about hazardous currents) in the hours after the cancellation and performed CPR on one near-drowning victim. Fortunately, there were no deaths. Because of dangerous surges, ocean safety officials closed Hanauma Bay, a popular snorkeling spot on Oahu, for a full day after the tsunami hit. They reassessed the bay the following morning just as waves reflected from South America started to arrive (36 hours after the earthquake), and prudently chose to keep the bay closed for two further days. The Tohoku tsunami showed that resonances and trapped waves in shallow water can last for many hours and that energy reflected from distant shorelines can rejuvenate them. PTWC's real-time simulation of the tsunami, including animation of its propagation, now helps to identify which reflections will be most troublesome and should permit the Center to specify in advance how long a Warning should remain in effect. The current open-ended warnings, which specify when the tsunami will arrive but not how long the Warning should last, should be replaced with warnings active for a specified time ("until 3 a.m. tomorrow"), with PTWC adjusting the projected cancellation time based on coastal sea-level observations. Such warnings should greatly reduce public misconceptions and state and local government expectations about how long the hazard will last. The National Weather Service, parent agency of the US TWCs, already issues weather Warnings and Advisories active for specific durations, so this message format is already familiar to both the public and emergency managers.

Temporal and spatial variation of heat-related illness using 911 medical dispatch data.

PubMed

Bassil, Kate L; Cole, Donald C; Moineddin, Rahim; Craig, Alan M; Lou, W Y Wendy; Schwartz, Brian; Rea, Elizabeth

2009-07-01

The adverse effect of hot weather on health in urban communities is of increasing public health concern, particularly given trends in climate change. To demonstrate the potential public health applications of monitoring 911 medical dispatch data for heat-related illness (HRI), using historical data for the summer periods (June 1-August 31) during 2002-2005 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The temporal distribution of the medical dispatch calls was described in relation to a current early warning system and emergency department data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Geospatial methods were used to map the percentage of heat-related calls in each Toronto neighborhood over the study period. The temporal pattern of 911 calls for HRI was similar, and sometimes peaked earlier, than current heat health warning systems (HHWS). The pattern of calls was similar to NACRS HRI visits, with the exception of 2005 where 911 calls peaked earlier. Areas of the city with a relatively higher burden of HRI included low income inner-city neighborhoods, areas with high rates of street-involved individuals, and areas along the waterfront which include summer outdoor recreational activities. Identifying the temporal trends and geospatial patterns of these important environmental health events has the potential to direct targeted public health interventions to mitigate associated morbidity and mortality.

The Capabilities and Applications of FY-3A/B SEM on Monitoring Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C.; Li, J.; Yu, T.; Xue, B.; Wang, C.; Zhang, X.; Cao, G.; Liu, D.; Tang, W.

2012-12-01

The Space Environment Monitor (SEM), on board the Chinese meteorological satellites, FengYun-3A/B has the abilities to measure proton flux in 3-300 Mev energy range and electron flux in 0.15-5.7 Mev energy range. SEM can also detect the heavy ion compositions, satellite surface potential, the radiation dose in sensors, and the single events. The space environment information derived from SEM can be utilized for satellite security designs, scientific studies, development of radiation belt models, and space weather monitoring and disaster warning. In this study, the SEM's instrument characteristics are introduced and the post-launch calibration algorithm is presented. The applications in monitoring space weather events and the service for manned spaceflights are also demonstrated.; The protons with particle energy over 10 Mev are called "killer particles". These particles may damage the satellite and cause disruption of satellite's system. The protons flux of 10 M-26 Mev energy band reached 5000 in the SPE caused by a solar flare with CME during the period of 2012.01.23 to 2012.01.27 as shown in the figure. THE COMPARISONS OF HEAVY IONS (2010.11.11-2010.12.15)t;

Analysis of extreme rain and flood events using a regional hydrologically enhanced hydrometeorological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yucel, Ismail; Onen, Alper

2013-04-01

Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Regional hydrometeorological system model which couples the atmosphere with physical and gridded based surface hydrology provide efficient predictions for extreme hydrological events. This modeling system can be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas at high spatial resolution. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro) model that performs the terrain, sub-terrain, and channel routing in producing streamflow from WRF-derived forcing of extreme precipitation events. The capability of the system with different options such as data assimilation is tested for number of flood events observed in basins of western Black Sea Region in Turkey. Rainfall event structures and associated flood responses are evaluated with gauge and satellite-derived precipitation and measured streamflow values. The modeling system shows skills in capturing the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall events and resulted flood hydrographs. High-resolution routing modules activated in the model enhance the simulated discharges.

Flood Hazards - A National Threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

In the late summer of 2005, the remarkable flooding brought by Hurricane Katrina, which caused more than $200 billion in losses, constituted the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. However, even in typical years, flooding causes billions of dollars in damage and threatens lives and property in every State. Natural processes, such as hurricanes, weather systems, and snowmelt, can cause floods. Failure of levees and dams and inadequate drainage in urban areas can also result in flooding. On average, floods kill about 140 people each year and cause $6 billion in property damage. Although loss of life to floods during the past half-century has declined, mostly because of improved warning systems, economic losses have continued to rise due to increased urbanization and coastal development.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos

2016-03-01

We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also provides mobile access to the web-based version of the system.

Transitioning GONG data processing to NOAA SWPC operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinard, A.; Marble, A.; Hill, F.; Berger, T. E.

2015-12-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, providing 24x7 forecasting and support to critical infrastructure operators around the world. Observations of the conditions on the Sun are crucial for determining when and if a warning is needed. The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) operated by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) consists of six ground stations, allowing continuous observations of the Sun. Of particular interest for space weather purposes are the H-alpha images and magnetograms. The H-alpha data are used to identify filaments and their eruptions, to assess active region evolution and plage extent, and to help localize flare locations. The magnetograms are used to identify neutral lines, to examine potential shearing areas and to characterize the magnetic structure of active regions. GONG magnetograms also provide the initial condition for models of solar wind expansion through the heliosphere such as the WSA-Enlil model. Although beyond the scope of current space weather applications, GONG helioseismology products can be used to assess active region emergence on the far side of the Sun and to indicate the flaring potential of a front-side active region. These products are being examined as future tools in flare prediction. NSO has operated GONG as a science facility since 1995 and has provided processed space weather data products to NOAA via public internet connections for the past several years. In 2014 the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requested that NOAA transition the GONG network to an operational space weather asset in order to ensure the continued flow of critical magnetogram data for solar wind models. NSO will continue to operate and manage the instruments and sites, but the H-alpha images and 10 minute averaged magnetogram data will be sent directly to SWPC for processing and use in space weather modeling. SWPC will make these data available to NSO and the public via the new NOAA Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) network. We discuss the progress and details of this change.

Transitioning GONG data processing to NOAA SWPC operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinard, Alysha; Marble, Andrew R.; Berger, Thomas

2016-05-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the nation's official source of space weather watches, warnings, and alerts, providing 24x7 forecasting and support to critical infrastructure operators around the world. Observations of the conditions on the Sun are crucial for determining when and if a warning is needed. The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) operated by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) consists of six ground stations, allowing continuous observations of the Sun. Of particular interest for space weather purposes are the H-alpha images and magnetograms. The H-alpha data are used to identify filaments and their eruptions, to assess active region evolution and plage extent, and to help localize flare locations. The magnetograms are used to identify neutral lines, to examine potential shearing areas and to characterize the magnetic structure of active regions. GONG magnetograms also provide the initial condition for models of solar wind expansion through the heliosphere such as the WSA-Enlil model. Although beyond the scope of current space weather applications, GONG helioseismology products can be used to assess active region emergence on the far side of the Sun and to indicate the flaring potential of a front-side active region. These products are being examined as future tools in flare prediction.NSO has operated GONG as a science facility since 1995 and has provided processed space weather data products to NOAA via for the past several years. In 2014 the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requested that NOAA transition the GONG network to an operational space weather asset in order to ensure the continued flow of critical data for solar wind models. NSO will continue to operate and manage the instruments and sites, but the H-alpha images and 10 minute averaged magnetogram data will be sent directly to SWPC for processing and use in space weather modeling. SWPC will make these data available to NSO and the public via the new NOAA Integrated Dissemination Program (IDP) network. We discuss the progress and details of this change.

Requirements of a system to reduce car-to-vulnerable road user crashes in urban intersections.

PubMed

Habibovic, Azra; Davidsson, Johan

2011-07-01

Intersection crashes between cars and vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as pedestrians and bicyclists, often result in injuries and fatalities. Advanced driver assistance systems (ADASs) can prevent, or mitigate, these crashes. To derive functional requirements for such systems, an understanding of the underlying contributing factors and the context in which the crashes occur is essential. The aim of this study is to use microscopic and macroscopic crash data to explore the potential of information and warning providing ADASs, and then to derive functional sensor, collision detection, and human-machine interface (HMI) requirements. The microscopic data were obtained from the European project SafetyNet. Causation charts describing contributing factors for 60 car-to-VRU crashes had been compiled and were then also aggregated using the SafetyNet Accident Causation System (SNACS). The macroscopic data were obtained from the Swedish national crash database, STRADA. A total of 9702 crashes were analyzed. The results show that the most frequent contributing factor to the crashes was the drivers' failure to observe VRUs due to reduced visibility, reduced awareness, and/or insufficient comprehension. An ADAS should therefore help drivers to observe the VRUs in time and to enhance their ability to interpret the development of events in the near future. The system should include a combination of imminent and cautionary collision warnings, with additional support in the form of information about intersection geometry and traffic regulations. The warnings should be deployed via an in-vehicle HMI and according to the likelihood of crash risk. The system should be able to operate under a variety of weather and light conditions. It should have the capacity to support drivers when their view is obstructed by physical objects. To address problems that vehicle-based sensors may face in this regard, the use of cooperative systems is recommended. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Core Spacecraft Systems Engineering Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bundas, David J.; ONeill, Deborah; Field, Thomas; Meadows, Gary; Patterson, Peter

2006-01-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and other US and international partners, with the goal of monitoring the diurnal and seasonal variations in precipitation over the surface of the earth. These measurements will be used to improve current climate models and weather forecasting, and enable improved storm and flood warnings. This paper gives an overview of the mission architecture and addresses the status of some key trade studies, including the geolocation budgeting, design considerations for spacecraft charging, and design issues related to the mitigation of orbital debris.

Global precipitation measurement (GPM) mission core spacecraft systems engineering challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundas, David J.; O'Neill, Deborah; Rhee, Michael; Feild, Thomas; Meadows, Gary; Patterson, Peter

2006-09-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and other US and international partners, with the goal of monitoring the diurnal and seasonal variations in precipitation over the surface of the earth. These measurements will be used to improve current climate models and weather forecasting, and enable improved storm and flood warnings. This paper gives an overview of the mission architecture and addresses the status of some key trade studies, including the geolocation budgeting, design considerations for spacecraft charging, and design issues related to the mitigation of orbital debris.

Vandenberg Air Force Base Pressure Gradient Wind Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafer, Jaclyn A.

2013-01-01

Warning category winds can adversely impact day-to-day space lift operations at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. NASA's Launch Services Program and other programs at VAFB use wind forecasts issued by the 30 Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle. The 30 OSSWF tasked the AMU to develop an automated Excel graphical user interface that includes pressure gradient thresholds between specific observing stations under different synoptic regimes to aid forecasters when issuing wind warnings. This required the AMU to determine if relationships between the variables existed.

Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. E.

2013-12-01

The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used to describe the connection between shocks and food prices, and to demonstrate the importance of these metrics in overall outcomes in food-insecure communities.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Nepal and Their Mitigation Practices in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurung, S.

2017-12-01

Glacial lakes in Nepal face a huge risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) due to the ongoing effects of climate change leading to considerable amount of snow and glacier melt thus weakening the natural barriers holding these high altitude glacial lakes. Nepal is at an ever growing risk every year and always waiting for an inevitable natural disaster. Since GLOF can cause extreme huge loss of human lives and physical properties, it has now become very important to design a proper mechanism which helps in reducing hazards from such events. There is little we can do to stop natural disasters, but we can implement pro-active control measures to minimize the loss. Early Warning System is the provision of timely and effective information, which allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action, avoid or reduce risk to life and property and prepare for effective response. The basic idea behind Early Warning System is that, the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict potential risks associated with natural hazards especially flood, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate the disasters' impact on society, economies and environment. We are currently focused on the development of early warning system for Imja Glacial Lake. The objective of developing early warning system for Imja GLOF is to help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths by providing information that allows individuals and communities downstream of Imja Lake to protect their lives and properties by using the latest and most advanced technology available. We have installed one Automatic Weather Station near the left lateral moraine of Imja Lake to study the effects of different meteorological parameters so as to predict occurrence of any GLOF event. The sensor includes pluviometer, pyranometer, temperature and humidity sensor, wind sensor, Snowdepth sensor. Two radar level sensors are installed at the outlet of Imja Lake and downstream of Imja river for water level measurement. Also, ten movements and volumetric water content sensors are installed to detect occurrence of any GLOF event.

The influences on radar-based rainfall estimation due to complex terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craciun, Cristian; Stefan, Sabina

2017-04-01

One of the concerns regarding radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is the level of reliability of radar data, on which the forecaster should trust when he must issue warnings regarding weather phenomena that might put human lives and good in danger. The aim of the current study is to evaluate, by objective means, the difference between radar estimated and gauge measured precipitation over an area with complex terrain. Radar data supplied for the study comes from an S-band, single polarization, Doppler weather system, Weather Surveillance Radar 98 Doppler (WSR-98D), that is located in center part of Romania. Gage measurements are supplied by a net of 27 weather stations, located within the coverage area of the radar. The approach consists in a few steps. In the first one the field of reflectivity data is converted into rain rate, using the radar's native Z-R relationship, and the rain rate field is then transformed into rain accumulation over certain time intervals. In the next step were investigated the differences between radar and gauge rainfall accumulations by using four objective functions: mean bias between radar estimations and ground measurements, root mean square factor, and Spearman and Pearson correlations. The results shows that the differences and the correlations between radar-based accumulations and rain gauge amounts have rather local significance than general relevance over the studied area.

Assessing weather effects on dengue disease in Malaysia.

PubMed

Cheong, Yoon Ling; Burkart, Katrin; Leitão, Pedro J; Lakes, Tobia

2013-11-26

The number of dengue cases has been increasing on a global level in recent years, and particularly so in Malaysia, yet little is known about the effects of weather for identifying the short-term risk of dengue for the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the weather effects on dengue disease accounting for non-linear temporal effects in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, from 2008 to 2010. We selected the weather parameters with a Poisson generalized additive model, and then assessed the effects of minimum temperature, bi-weekly accumulated rainfall and wind speed on dengue cases using a distributed non-linear lag model while adjusting for trend, day-of-week and week of the year. We found that the relative risk of dengue cases is positively associated with increased minimum temperature at a cumulative percentage change of 11.92% (95% CI: 4.41-32.19), from 25.4 °C to 26.5 °C, with the highest effect delayed by 51 days. Increasing bi-weekly accumulated rainfall had a positively strong effect on dengue cases at a cumulative percentage change of 21.45% (95% CI: 8.96, 51.37), from 215 mm to 302 mm, with the highest effect delayed by 26-28 days. The wind speed is negatively associated with dengue cases. The estimated lagged effects can be adapted in the dengue early warning system to assist in vector control and prevention plan.

Meteorological conditions affecting the Freeman Lake (Idaho) fire

Treesearch

George M. Jemison

1932-01-01

Measurements of meteorological conditions prevailing during the rapid spread of forest fires are greatly needed so that when their recurrence seems probable, fire-weather forecasters may issue warnings of the danger. Such determinations also can be used by forest protective agencies which operate meteorological stations to guide their own action in the distribution of...

Fleet Weather Center- San Diego, California - Naval Oceanography Portal

Science.gov Websites

section Advanced Search... Sections Home Time Earth Orientation Astronomy Meteorology Oceanography Ice You Oceanography Portal at its new location: http://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcsd/fwc-sd.html USNO Master Clock Time for Atlantic Tropical Warnings Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command, 1100 Balch Blvd, Stennis

Hurricane Warning: the Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Science Foundation, 2007

2007-01-01

The United States possesses the most capable research enterprise, the largest economy, and the most sophisticated societal infrastructure in the world, yet it remains notably vulnerable to catastrophic damage and loss of life from natural hazards. Among weather hazards, hurricanes account for over half of the total damage inflicted. Despite their…

76 FR 68332 - International Fisheries; Pacific Tuna Fisheries; Fishing Restrictions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-04

...://www.iattc.org/ResolutionsActiveENG.htm . Changes to Tuna Conservation Measures for 2011-2013... fishing vessels that often leads to loss of data critical to weather forecasting, tsunami warnings, search... of Climate Observations at http://osmc.noaa.gov/Monitor/OSMC/OSMC.html , also provides information...

76 FR 60790 - International Fisheries; Pacific Tuna Fisheries; Fishing Restrictions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-30

... without change. All personal identifying information (e.g., name, address, etc.) submitted voluntarily by...: (1) A change to the duration of the purse seine closure of the Convention Area in 2011 and... weather forecasting, tsunami warnings, search and rescue efforts, and research of the marine environment...

Vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) safety applications performance requirements, vol. 5, spot weather information warning – reduced speed (SWIW-RS).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

This document is the fifth of a seven volume report that describe the Performance Requirements for the connected vehicle vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) safety applications developed for the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT). This volume d...

Vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) safety applications performance requirements, vol. 6, spot weather information warning – diversion (SWIW-D).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

This document is the sixth of a seven volume report that describe the Performance Requirements for the connected vehicle vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) safety applications developed for the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT). This volume d...

Northeastern Summer Electricity Market Alert

EIA Publications

2013-01-01

The National Weather Service declared an excessive-heat warning for much of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, including major electric markets covering Philadelphia, Boston, Washington, D.C., and New York City. This report highlights the wholesale electricity market activity occurring in response to the higher-than-normal electricity demand caused by the heat wave.

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the U.S. Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Brickley, Elizabeth B

2012-01-01

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods, and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. We analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000 to 2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices, and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large-scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data were used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10% of the time, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

The North Alabama Lightning Warning Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buechler, Dennis E.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Stano, G. T.

2009-01-01

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array NALMA has been collecting total lightning data on storms in the Tennessee Valley region since 2001. Forecasters from nearby National Weather Service (NWS) offices have been ingesting this data for display with other AWIPS products. The current lightning product used by the offices is the lightning source density plot. The new product provides a probabalistic, short-term, graphical forecast of the probability of lightning activity occurring at 5 min intervals over the next 30 minutes . One of the uses of the current lightning source density product by the Huntsville National Weather Service Office is to identify areas of potential for cloud-to-ground flashes based on where LMA total lightning is occurring. This product quantifies that observation. The Lightning Warning Product is derived from total lightning observations from the Washington, D.C. (DCLMA) and North Alabama Lightning Mapping Arrays and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes detected by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Probability predictions are provided for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes. The gridded product can be displayed on AWIPS workstations in a manner similar to that of the lightning source density product.

NCAR activities related to translating climate and weather information into infectious-disease and other public-health early warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, T.; Monaghan, A.; Hopson, T.

2010-09-01

The atmosphere can influence the spread of human and agricultural infectious diseases through a number of different mechanisms, including the effect of the atmosphere on the health of the pathogen itself, the health and number of disease vectors, human behavior, wind transport, and flooding. Through knowledge of the statistical or physical relationships between disease incidence, for example outbreaks, and weather or climate conditions, it is possible to translate predictions of the atmosphere into predictions of disease spread or incidence. Medium range forecasts of weeks can allow redistribution of vaccines and medical personnel to locations that will be in greatest need. Inter-seasonal forecasts, e.g. based on the ENSO cycle, can provide long-lead-time information for disease early-warning systems, which can guide the manufacture of vaccines and inform aid agencies about future requirements. And knowledge of longer-term trends in climate conditions, associated, for example, with increases in green-house gases, can be used for development of infectious-disease mitigation and prevention policies. Because of the existence of complex physical, biological, and societal aspects to the links between atmospheric conditions and disease, prediction systems must be constructed based on knowledge of multiple disciplines. To be described in the presentation are activities at the National Center for Atmospheric Research that involve the coupling of atmospheric models with infectious-disease models and decision-support systems. These include 1) the use of operational multi-week weather forecasts to estimate the spatial and temporal variability of the threat of bacterial meningitis in West Africa, 2) climate and spatial risk modeling of human plague in Uganda, 3) a study of how climate variability and human landscape modification interact to influence key aspects of both mosquito vector ecology and human behavior, and how they influence the increased incidence of dengue fever in Mexico, and 4) development of new knowledge about how extreme heat events across the United States and parts of Canada result from changing climate, land use and the interactions between them. In addition, NCAR has an arrangement with the US Centers for Disease Control wherein postdoctoral students are shared between the two organizations in order to provide experiences that will foster research at the interface between climate science and the study of infectious diseases.

Intra- and Interseasonal Autoregressive Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Using Local Weather and Regional Climate for a Tropical Environment in Colombia

PubMed Central

Eastin, Matthew D.; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Wexler, Joshua; Self, Cameron

2014-01-01

Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors—all of which are influenced by environmental factors. Predictive models of dengue incidence rate, based on local weather and regional climate parameters, could benefit disease mitigation efforts. Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C—the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission. Two environment-based, multivariate, autoregressive forecast models are developed that allow dengue outbreaks to be anticipated from 2 weeks to 6 months in advance. These models have the potential to enhance existing dengue early warning systems, ultimately supporting public health decisions on the timing and scale of vector control efforts. PMID:24957546

The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; van den Hurk, Bart; Jongman, Brenden; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Veldkamp, Ted; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2018-01-01

Most flood early warning systems have predominantly focused on forecasting floods with lead times of hours or days. However, physical processes during longer timescales can also contribute to flood generation. In this study, we follow a pragmatic approach to analyse the hydro-meteorological pre-conditions of 501 historical damaging floods from 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa. These are separated into (a) weather timescale (0-6 days) and (b) seasonal timescale conditions (up to 6 months) before the event. The 7-day precipitation preceding a flood event (PRE7) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are analysed for the two timescale domains, respectively. Results indicate that high PRE7 does not always generate floods by itself. Seasonal SPEIs, which are not directly correlated with PRE7, exhibit positive (wet) values prior to most flood events across different averaging times, indicating a relationship with flooding. This paper provides evidence that bringing together weather and seasonal conditions can lead to improved flood risk preparedness.

Earth Observation Data Quality Monitoring and Control: A Case Study of STAR Central Data Repository

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Jochum, M.

2017-12-01

Earth observation data quality is very important for researchers and decision makers involved in weather forecasting, severe weather warning, disaster and emergency response, environmental monitoring, etc. Monitoring and control earth observation data quality, especially accuracy, completeness, and timeliness, is very useful in data management and governance to optimize data flow, discover potential transmission issues, and better connect data providers and users. Taking a centralized near real-time satellite data repository, STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research of NOAA) Central Data Repository (SCDR), as an example, this paper describes how to develop new mechanism to verify data integrity, check data completeness, and monitor data latency in an operational data management system. Such quality monitoring and control of large volume satellite data help data providers and managers improve data transmission of near real-time satellite data, enhance its acquisition and management, and overcome performance and management issues to better serve research and development activities.

49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

Nowcasting for a high-resolution weather radar network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzanski, Evan

Short-term prediction (nowcasting) of high-impact weather events can lead to significant improvement in warnings and advisories and is of great practical importance. Nowcasting using weather radar reflectivity data has been shown to be particularly useful. The Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) radar network provides high-resolution reflectivity data amenable to producing valuable nowcasts. The high-resolution nature of CASA data requires the use of an efficient nowcasting approach, which necessitated the development of the Dynamic Adaptive Radar Tracking of Storms (DARTS) and sinc kernel-based advection nowcasting methodology. This methodology was implemented operationally in the CASA Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS) system in a robust and efficient manner necessitated by the high-resolution nature of CASA data and distributed nature of the environment in which the nowcasting system operates. Nowcasts up to 10 min to support emergency manager decision-making and 1--5 min to steer the CASA radar nodes to better observe the advecting storm patterns for forecasters and researchers are currently provided by this system. Results of nowcasting performance during the 2009 CASA IP experiment are presented. Additionally, currently state-of-the-art scale-based filtering methods were adapted and evaluated for use in the CASA DCAS to provide a scale-based analysis of nowcasting. DARTS was also incorporated in the Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making system to provide more accurate and efficient snow water equivalent nowcasts for aircraft deicing decision support relative to the radar-based nowcasting method currently used in the operational system. Results of an evaluation using data collected from 2007--2008 by the Weather Service Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) located near Denver, Colorado, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Marshall Test Site near Boulder, Colorado, are presented. DARTS was also used to study the short-term predictability of precipitation patterns depicted by high-resolution reflectivity data observed at microalpha (0.2--2 km) to mesobeta (20--200 km) scales by the CASA radar network. Additionally, DARTS was used to investigate the performance of nowcasting rainfall fields derived from specific differential phase estimates, which have been shown to provide more accurate and robust rainfall estimates compared to those made from radar reflectivity data.

Storm Warning Service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

A Huntsville meteorologist of Baron Services, Inc. has formed a commercial weather advisory service. Weather information is based on data from Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) collected from antennas in Alabama and Tennessee. Bob Baron refines and enhances MSFC's real time display software. Computer data is changed to audio data for radio transmission, received by clients through an antenna and decoded by computer for display. Using his service, clients can monitor the approach of significant storms and schedule operations accordingly. Utilities and emergency management officials are able to plot a storm's path. A recent agreement with two other companies will promote continued development and marketing.

Probabilistic rainfall warning system with an interactive user interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koistinen, Jarmo; Hohti, Harri; Kauhanen, Janne; Kilpinen, Juha; Kurki, Vesa; Lauri, Tuomo; Nurmi, Pertti; Rossi, Pekka; Jokelainen, Miikka; Heinonen, Mari; Fred, Tommi; Moisseev, Dmitri; Mäkelä, Antti

2013-04-01

A real time 24/7 automatic alert system is in operational use at the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). It consists of gridded forecasts of the exceedance probabilities of rainfall class thresholds in the continuous lead time range of 1 hour to 5 days. Nowcasting up to six hours applies ensemble member extrapolations of weather radar measurements. With 2.8 GHz processors using 8 threads it takes about 20 seconds to generate 51 radar based ensemble members in a grid of 760 x 1226 points. Nowcasting exploits also lightning density and satellite based pseudo rainfall estimates. The latter ones utilize convective rain rate (CRR) estimate from Meteosat Second Generation. The extrapolation technique applies atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) originally developed for upper wind estimation with satellite images. Exceedance probabilities of four rainfall accumulation categories are computed for the future 1 h and 6 h periods and they are updated every 15 minutes. For longer forecasts exceedance probabilities are calculated for future 6 and 24 h periods during the next 4 days. From approximately 1 hour to 2 days Poor man's Ensemble Prediction System (PEPS) is used applying e.g. the high resolution short range Numerical Weather Prediction models HIRLAM and AROME. The longest forecasts apply EPS data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The blending of the ensemble sets from the various forecast sources is performed applying mixing of accumulations with equal exceedance probabilities. The blending system contains a real time adaptive estimator of the predictability of radar based extrapolations. The uncompressed output data are written to file for each member, having total size of 10 GB. Ensemble data from other sources (satellite, lightning, NWP) are converted to the same geometry as the radar data and blended as was explained above. A verification system utilizing telemetering rain gauges has been established. Alert dissemination e.g. for citizens and professional end users applies SMS messages and, in near future, smartphone maps. The present interactive user interface facilitates free selection of alert sites and two warning thresholds (any rain, heavy rain) at any location in Finland. The pilot service was tested by 1000-3000 users during summers 2010 and 2012. As an example of dedicated end-user services gridded exceedance scenarios (of probabilities 5 %, 50 % and 90 %) of hourly rainfall accumulations for the next 3 hours have been utilized as an online input data for the influent model at the Greater Helsinki Wastewater Treatment Plant.

Effects of space weather on high-latitude ground systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirjola, Risto

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in technological systems, such as power grids, pipelines, cables and railways, are a ground manifestation of space weather. The first GIC observations were already made in early telegraph equipment more than 150 years ago. In power networks, GIC may saturate transformers with possible harmful consequences extending even to a collapse of the whole system or to permanent damage of transformers. In pipelines, GIC and the associated pipe-to-soil voltages may enhance corrosion or disturb surveys associated with corrosion control. GIC are driven by the geoelectric field induced by a geomagnetic variation at the Earth’s surface. The electric and magnetic fields are primarily produced by ionospheric currents and secondarily affected by the ground conductivity. Of great importance is the auroral electrojet with other rapidly varying currents indicating that GIC are a particular high-latitude problem. In this paper, we summarize the GIC research done in Finland during about 25 years, and discuss the calculation of GIC in a given network. Special attention is paid to modelling a power system. It is shown that, when considering GIC at a site, it is usually sufficient to take account for a smaller grid in the vicinity of the particular site. Modelling GIC also provides a basis for developing forecasting and warning methods of GIC.

The Potential Impact of Directionality, Colour Perceptions and Cultural Associations on Disaster Messages During Heatwaves in the UK

PubMed Central

Tang, Chris; Rundblad, Gabriella

2015-01-01

The health risks posed by heatwaves have been well documented. In the UK, before and during a heatwave, alerts are issued to the general public based on a tiered warning system integrating the use of colour and number sequences. There has of yet been no formal assessment of the public response to these messages. Cultural and language barriers make some members of ethnic minority communities particularly hard to reach. These may be less challenging amongst younger community members, who may be well placed to instigate the circulation of warning information to those less able or willing to use conventional channels. This qualitative study assesses the role of age and ethnic and cultural background in the conceptualisation of the number and colour systems used as part of the Heat-Health Watch System (HHWS) and the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). Young and older participants were recruited from the Bangladeshi and white British populations of Tower Hamlets. All participants were given a cognitive task that required them to identify and draw associations between 12 cards depicting the four colours and numbers used in the warning system and four pictures providing contextualisation in terms of heatwave risk. A qualitative analysis of the heuristics used in the group discussions provided insights into the conceptualisations basic to interpreting colour and number sequences as representations of risk graduations, and how interpretation might be influenced by age and ethnic and cultural background. There were considerable differences in the interpretation of young Bangladeshi and older white British participants, on the one hand, and older Bangladeshi participants, on the other. Young Bangladeshis and older white British participants conceptualised the colours and numbers as a vertical scale, with the numbers/colours at “the top” corresponding to representations of higher temperature. This conceptualisation was mainly based on strong associations between colour and temperature, with risk only associated with the upper limit of the scale. Older Bangladeshi participants, on the other hand, conceptualised the numbers and pictures as a narrative sequence and disassociated the colours from the other cards. The differences between groups suggest potential cultural barriers to the “intended” interpretation of the colour and number sequences for older Bangladeshis but not for young Bangladeshis. The fact that the predominant association for the colour sequence for both young Bangladeshis and older white British participants was with graduations of temperature rather than risk raises questions about the applicability of using colours in a tiered warning system. PMID:25932346

Testing the eBEAR System in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, H. C.; Chen, T. Y.; Tseng, T. L.

2016-12-01

The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has operated an earthquake early warning (EEW) system and issued warnings to schools and government agencies since 2014. The real-time seismic data streams are integrated by the Earthworm software. In order to rapidly process those data, some EEW modules were created under the Earthworm platform. The system is named Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system, which is currently operating. The eBEAR system consists of new Earthworm modules for managing P-wave phase picking, trigger associations, hypocenter locations, magnitude estimations, and alert filtering prior to broadcasting. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 26 seconds for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. During 2016 ML6.6 Meinong (Taiwan) earthquake, the eBEAR system was successfully issued after 12.8 seconds when the earthquake occurred. While performances of the eBEAR system are stable, accurate in most events in Taiwan, there are a limited number of recent, well-record, large earthquakes (M>7) available for testing it. In order to examine outcome of eBEAR for large earthquakes, we implemented offline test to the eBEAR system using 26 events in Japan with magnitude larger than 7.0 from 2008 to 2016. EEW systems of Taiwan and Japan have the same challengs, including inaccurate locations and poorly constrained for offshore and deep earthquakes in the initial stages due to limited station coverage. Therefore the testing of eBEAR system provides a good opportunity to examine the abilities of the eBEAR system.

Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Esparza, J. A.; De la Luz, V.; Corona-Romero, P.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Gonzalez, L. X.; Sergeeva, M. A.; Romero-Hernandez, E.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.

2017-01-01

Legislative modifications of the General Civil Protection Law in Mexico in 2014 included specific references to space hazards and space weather phenomena. The legislation is consistent with United Nations promotion of international engagement and cooperation on space weather awareness, studies, and monitoring. These internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a space weather service in Mexico. The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) was initiated in October 2014 and is operated by the Institute of Geophysics at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). SCiESMEX became a Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Services (ISES) in June 2015. We present the characteristics of the service, some products, and the initial actions for developing a space weather strategy in Mexico. The service operates a computing infrastructure including a web application, data repository, and a high-performance computing server to run numerical models. SCiESMEX uses data of the ground-based instrumental network of the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE), covering solar radio burst emissions, solar wind and interplanetary disturbances (by interplanetary scintillation observations), geomagnetic measurements, and analysis of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere (by employing data from local networks of GPS receiver stations).

Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

2014-05-01

Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement of the earth flow site will be monitored by differential GPS to get high precision information on displacements of marked points. Photogrammtetry based on octocopter surveys will provide spatial information on movement patterns. A similar approach will be followed for the debris flow catchment. Here, the focus lies on a monitoring of the landslide failures in the source area which prepares the material for subsequent debris flow transport. In addition to the methods already mentioned, repeated terrestrial laserscanning campaigns will be used to monitor geomorphological changes at all sites. All important data, which can be single measurements, episodic or continuous monitoring data for a given point (e.g. rainfall, inclination) or of spatial character (e.g. LiDAR measurements), are collected and analysed on an external server. Automatic data analysis methods, such as progressive failure analysis, are carried out automatically based on field measurements. The data and results from all monitoring sites are visualised on a web-based platform which enables registered users to analyse the respective information in near-real-time. Moreover, thresholds can be determined which trigger automated warning messages to the involved scientists if thresholds are exceeded by field measurements. The described system will enable scientists and decision-makers to access the latest data from the monitoring systems. Automatic alarms are raised when thresholds are exceeded to inform them about potentially hazardous changes. Thereby, a more efficient hazard management and early warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, rockfall, debris flow, earth flow, monitoring, early warning system.

Operational Remote Sensing Services in North Eastern Region of India for Natural Resources Management, Early Warning for Disaster Risk Reduction and Dissemination of Information and Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, P. L. N.; Sarma, K. K.; Barman, D.; Handique, B. K.; Chutia, D.; Kundu, S. S.; Das, R. Kr.; Chakraborty, K.; Das, R.; Goswami, J.; Das, P.; Devi, H. S.; Nongkynrih, J. M.; Bhusan, K.; Singh, M. S.; Singh, P. S.; Saikhom, V.; Goswami, C.; Pebam, R.; Borgohain, A.; Gogoi, R. B.; Singh, N. R.; Bharali, A.; Sarma, D.; Lyngdoh, R. B.; Mandal, P. P.; Chabukdhara, M.

2016-06-01

North Eastern Region (NER) of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC) in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS) using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS) based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the administrators and local government bodies for better management, preparing prospective planning, and sustainable use of available resources. The knowledge dissemination is being done through online web portals wherever the internet access is available and as well as offline space based information kiosks, where the internet access is not available or having limited bandwidth availability. This paper presents a systematic and comprehensive study on the remote sensing services operational in NER of India for natural resources management, disaster risk reduction and dissemination of information and services, in addition to outlining future areas and direction of space applications for the region.

Satellites as Sentinels for Environment & Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2002-01-01

Satellites as Sentinels for Environment & Health Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing human and ecosystem health by enabling improved understanding of the relationships and linkages between health-related environmental parameters and society as well as techniques for early warning of potential health problems. NASA Office of Earth Science Applications Program has established a new initiative to utilize its data, expertise, and observations of the Earth for public health applications. In this initiative, lead by Goddard Space Flight Center, remote sensing, geographic information systems, improved computational capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global health issues. This presentation provides a number of recent examples of applications of advanced remote sensing and other technologies to health.and security issues related to the following: infectious and vector-borne diseases; urban, regional and global air pollution; African and Asian airborne dust; heat stress; UV radiation; water-borne disease; extreme weather; contaminant pathways (ocean, atmosphere, ice)

Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William

2007-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous, full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 11 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies begun in January 2006 will be completed in March 2007, with implementation expected to begin in September 2007. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, airborne science missions (e.g., African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis, AMMA), and regional test beds (e.g, Lightning Mapping Arrays) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data now being provided to selected forecast offices will lead to improved understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Proxy data combined with MODIS and Meteosat Second Generation SEVERI observations will also lead to new applications (e.g., multi-sensor precipitation algorithms blending the GLM with the Advanced Baseline Imager, convective cloud initiation and identification, early warnings of lightning threat, storm tracking, and data assimilation).

GOES-S NASA Social

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-28

Pam Sullivan, NASA's GOES-R flight director, left, and A.J. Sandora, Lockheed Martin's GOES-R Series Mechanical Operations Assembly, Test and Launch Operations (ATLO) manager, speak to members of social media in the Kennedy Space Center’s Press Site auditorium. The briefing focused on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, or NOAA's, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES-S. The spacecraft is the second satellite in a series of next-generation NOAA weather satellites. It will launch to a geostationary position over the U.S. to provide images of storms and help predict weather forecasts, severe weather outlooks, watches, warnings, lightning conditions and longer-term forecasting. GOES-S is slated to lift off at 5:02 p.m. EST on March 1, 2018 aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket.

Motivating and Facilitating Advancements in Space Weather Real-Time Data Availability: Factors, Data, and Access Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankratz, C. K.; Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Elkington, S. R.; Baltzer, T.; Sanchez, F.

2017-12-01

Society's growing reliance on complex and highly interconnected technological systems makes us increasingly vulnerable to the effects of space weather events - maybe more than for any other natural hazard. An extreme solar storm today could conceivably impact hundreds of the more than 1400 operating Earth satellites. Such an extreme storm could cause collapse of the electrical grid on continental scales. The effects on navigation, communication, and remote sensing of our home planet could be devastating to our social functioning. Thus, it is imperative that the scientific community address the question of just how severe events might become. At least as importantly, it is crucial that policy makers and public safety officials be informed by the facts on what might happen during extreme conditions. This requires essentially real-time alerts, warnings, and also forecasts of severe space weather events, which in turn demands measurements, models, and associated data products to be available via the most effective data discovery and access methods possible. Similarly, advancement in the fundamental scientific understanding of space weather processes is also vital, requiring that researchers have convenient and effective access to a wide variety of data sets and models from multiple sources. The space weather research community, as with many scientific communities, must access data from dispersed and often uncoordinated data repositories to acquire the data necessary for the analysis and modeling efforts that advance our understanding of solar influences and space physics on the Earth's environment. The Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP), as a leading institution in both producing data products and advancing the state of scientific understanding of space weather processes, is well positioned to address many of these issues. In this presentation, we will outline the motivating factors for effective space weather data access, summarize the various data and models that are available, and present methods for meeting the data management and access needs of the disparate communities who require low-latency space weather data and information.

Incorporation of temperature and solar radiation thresholds to modify a lettuce downy mildew warning system.

PubMed

Wu, B M; van Bruggen, A H C; Subbarao, K V; Scherm, H

2002-06-01

ABSTRACT The effect of temperature on infection of lettuce by Bremia lactucae was investigated in controlled environment studies and in the field. In controlled conditions, lettuce seedlings inoculated with B. lactucae were incubated at 15, 20, 25, or 30 degrees C during a 4-h wet period immediately after inoculation or at the same temperatures during an 8-h dry period after the 4-h postinoculation wet period at 15 degrees C. High temperatures during wet and dry periods reduced subsequent disease incidence. Historical data from field studies in 1991 and 1992, in which days with or without infection had been identified, were analyzed by comparing average air temperatures during 0600 to 1000 and 1000 to 1400 Pacific standard time (PST) between the two groups of days. Days without infection had significantly higher temperatures (mean 21.4 degrees C) than days with infection (20.3 degrees C) during 1000 to 1400 PST (P < 0.01) but not during 0600 to 1000 PST. Therefore, temperature thresholds of 20 and 22 degrees C for the 3-h wet period after sunrise and the subsequent 4-h postpenetration period, respectively, were added to a previously developed disease warning system that predicts infection when morning leaf wetness lasts >/=4 h from 0600 PST. No infection was assumed to occur if average temperature during these periods exceeded the thresholds. Based on nonlinear regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the leaf wetness threshold of the previous warning system was also modified to >/=3-h leaf wetness (>/=0900 PST). Furthermore, by comparing solar radiation on days with infection and without infection, we determined that high solar radiation during 0500 to 0600 PST in conjunction with leaf wetness ending between 0900 and 1000 PST was associated with downy mildew infection. Therefore, instead of starting at 0600 PST, the calculation of the 3-h morning leaf wetness period was modified to start after sunrise, defined as the hour when measured solar radiation exceeded 8 W m(-2) (or 41 mumol m(-2) s(-1) for photon flux density). The modified warning system was compared with the previously developed system using historical weather and downy mildew data collected in coastal California. The modified system was more conservative when disease potential was high and recommended fewer fungicide applications when conditions were not conducive to downy mildew development.

Space Weather Monitoring with GOES-16: Instruments and Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loto'aniu, Paul; Rodriguez, Juan; Redmon, Robert; Machol, Janet; Kress, Brian; Seaton, Daniel; Darnel, Jonathan; Rowland, William; Tilton, Margaret; Denig, William; Boudouridis, Athanasios; Codrescu, Stefan; Claycomb, Abram

2017-04-01

Since their inception in the 1970s, the NOAA GOES satellites have monitored the sources of space weather on the sun and the effects of space weather at Earth. The GOES-16 spacecraft, the first of four satellites as part of the GOES-R spacecraft series mission, was launched in November 2016. The space weather instruments on GOES-16 have significantly improved capabilities over older GOES instruments. They will image the sun's atmosphere in extreme-ultraviolet and monitor solar irradiance in X-rays and UV, solar energetic particles, magnetospheric energetic particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the Earth's magnetic field. These measurements are important for providing alerts and warnings to many worldwide customers, including the NOAA National Weather Service, satellite operators, the power utilities, and NASA's human activities in space. This presentation reviews the capabilities of the GOES-16 space weather instruments and presents initial post launch data along with a discussion of calibration activities and the current status of the instruments. We also describe the space weather Level 2+ products that are being developed for the GOES-R series including solar thematic maps, automated magnetopause crossing detection and spacecraft charging estimates. These new and continuing data products will be an integral part of NOAA space weather operations in the GOES-R era.

What weather variables are important in predicting heat-related mortality? A new application of statistical learning methods

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kai; Li, Yun; Schwartz, Joel D.; O'Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Hot weather increases risk of mortality. Previous studies used different sets of weather variables to characterize heat stress, resulting in variation in heat-mortality- associations depending on the metric used. We employed a statistical learning method – random forests – to examine which of various weather variables had the greatest impact on heat-related mortality. We compiled a summertime daily weather and mortality counts dataset from four U.S. cities (Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Philadelphia, PA; and Phoenix, AZ) from 1998 to 2006. A variety of weather variables were ranked in predicting deviation from typical daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts. Ranks of weather variables varied with city and health outcome. Apparent temperature appeared to be the most important predictor of heat-related mortality for all-cause mortality. Absolute humidity was, on average, most frequently selected one of the top variables for all-cause mortality and seven cause-specific mortality categories. Our analysis affirms that apparent temperature is a reasonable variable for activating heat alerts and warnings, which are commonly based on predictions of total mortality in next few days. Additionally, absolute humidity should be included in future heat-health studies. Finally, random forests can be used to guide choice of weather variables in heat epidemiology studies. PMID:24834832

Airlock caution and warning system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayfield, W. J.; Cork, L. Z.; Malchow, R. G.; Hornback, G. L.

1972-01-01

Caution and warning system, used to monitor performance and warn of hazards or out-of-limit conditions on space vehicles, may have application to aircraft and railway transit systems. System consists of caution and warning subsystem and emergency subsystem.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Gatlin, Patrick N.

2013-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

2014-03-01

This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; van den Hurk, Bart; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk management has focused on long-term flood protection measures. However, many countries are often not able to afford hard infrastructure that provides sufficient safety levels due to the high investment costs. As a consequence, they rely more on post disaster response and timely warning systems. Most early warning systems have predominantly focused on precipitation as the main predictive factor, having usually lead times of hours or days. However, other variables could also play a role. For instance, anomalous positive water storage, soil saturation and evapotranspiration are physical factors that may influence the length of the flood build-up period. This period can vary from some days to several months before the event and it is particularly important in flood risk management since longer flood warning lead times during this period could result in better flood preparation actions. This study addresses how the antecedent conditions of historical reported flood events over the period 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa relate to flood generation. The seasonal-scale conditions are reflected in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is calculated using monthly precipitation and temperature data and accounts for the wetness/dryness of an area. Antecedent conditions are separated into a) a short term 'weather-scale' period (0-7 days) and b) a 'seasonal-scale' period (up to 6 months) before the flood event in such a way that they do not overlap. Total 7-day precipitation, which is based on daily meteorological data, was used to evaluate the short-term weather-scale conditions. Using a pair of coordinates, derived from the NatCatSERVICE database on global flood losses, each flood event is positioned on a 0.5°x 0.5° grid cell. The antecedent SPEI conditions of the two periods and their joint influence in flood generation are compared to the same period conditions of the other years of the dataset. First results revealed that many floods were preceded by high SPEI for several months before the flooding event, showing that the area was saturated with a long lead-time. Those that were not preceded by high SPEI had very extreme short-term precipitation that caused the flood event. Furthermore, the importance of seasonal-scale conditions is quantified, which in turn might help humanitarian organizations and decision-makers extend the period of the preventive flood risk management planning.

PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA

PubMed Central

Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

2013-01-01

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

NOAA Weather Radio - Alarms

Science.gov Websites

affected (usually by county), and the expiration time of the message. The Maximum message expiration time county), and the valid time period of the hazard. Other details, such as storm movement, storm spotter time in SAME vs. valid time period in voice message: For short-fuse hazards, such as a tornado warning

GIM-TEC adaptive ionospheric weather assessment and forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Stanislawska, I.

2013-09-01

The Ionospheric Weather Assessment and Forecast (IWAF) system is a computer software package designed to assess and predict the world-wide representation of 3-D electron density profiles from the Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). The unique system products include daily-hourly numerical global maps of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and the peak height (hmF2) generated with the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, upgraded by importing the daily-hourly GIM-TEC as a new model driving parameter. Since GIM-TEC maps are provided with 1- or 2-days latency, the global maps forecast for 1 day and 2 days ahead are derived using an harmonic analysis applied to the temporal changes of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 at 5112 grid points of a map encapsulated in IONEX format (-87.5°:2.5°:87.5°N in latitude, -180°:5°:180°E in longitude). The system provides online the ionospheric disturbance warnings in the global W-index map establishing categories of the ionospheric weather from the quiet state (W=±1) to intense storm (W=±4) according to the thresholds set for instant TEC perturbations regarding quiet reference median for the preceding 7 days. The accuracy of IWAF system predictions of TEC, foF2 and hmF2 maps is superior to the standard persistence model with prediction equal to the most recent ‘true’ map. The paper presents outcomes of the new service expressed by the global ionospheric foF2, hmF2 and W-index maps demonstrating the process of origin and propagation of positive and negative ionosphere disturbances in space and time and their forecast under different scenarios.

Crash Warning Interface Metrics: Final Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

The Crash Warning Interface Metrics (CWIM) project addressed issues of the driver-vehicle interface (DVI) for Advanced Crash Warning Systems (ACWS). The focus was on identifying the effects of certain warning system features (e.g., warning modality) ...

Carbon pollution increases health inequities: lessons in resilience from the most vulnerable.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Fawcett, Stephen B; Spiegel, Jerry; Tovalin, Horacio

2016-09-01

Climate change is a social justice as well as an environmental issue. The magnitude and pattern of changes in weather and climate variables are creating differential exposures, vulnerabilities, and health risks that increase stress on health systems while exacerbating existing and creating new health inequities. Examples from national and local health adaptation projects highlight that developing partnerships across sectors and levels are critical for building climate-resilient health systems and communities. Strengthening current and implementing new health interventions, such as using environmental information to develop early warning systems, can be effective in protecting the most vulnerable. However, not all projected risks of climate change can be avoided by climate policies and programs, so health system strengthening is also critical. Applying a health inequity lens can reduce current vulnerabilities while building resilience to longer-term climate change. Taking inequities into account is critical if societies are to effectively prepare for and manage the challenges ahead.

Effectiveness of safety belt warning and interlock systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-04-01

Rental cars in Fayetteville, N.C., were equipped with four seat belt and warning systems: (Phase I) detachable shoulder and lap belt, no warning system; (Phase II) detachable shoulder and lap belt, warning system (January 1, 1972 standard); (Phase II...

Developing of operational hydro-meteorological simulating and displaying system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Shih, D.; Chen, C.

2010-12-01

Hydrological hazards, which often occur in conjunction with extreme precipitation events, are the most frequent type of natural disaster in Taiwan. Hence, the researchers at the Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) are devoted to analyzing and gaining a better understanding of the causes and effects of natural disasters, and in particular, typhoons and floods. The long-term goal of the TTFRI is to develop a unified weather-hydrological-oceanic model suitable for simulations with local parameterizations in Taiwan. The development of a fully coupled weather-hydrology interaction model is not yet completed but some operational hydro-meteorological simulations are presented as a step in the direction of completing a full model. The predicted rainfall data from Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) are used as our meteorological forcing on watershed modeling. The hydrology and hydraulic modeling are conducted by WASH123D numerical model. And the WRF/WASH123D coupled system is applied to simulate floods during the typhoon landfall periods. The daily operational runs start at 04UTC, 10UTC, 16UTC and 22UTC, about 4 hours after data downloaded from NCEP GFS. This system will execute 72-hr weather forecasts. The simulation of WASH123D will sequentially trigger after receiving WRF rainfall data. This study presents the preliminary framework of establishing this system, and our goal is to build this earlier warning system to alert the public form dangerous. The simulation results are further display by a 3D GIS web service system. This system is established following the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standardization process for GIS web service, such as Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS). The traditional 2D GIS data, such as high resolution aerial photomaps and satellite images are integrated into 3D landscape model. The simulated flooding and inundation area can be dynamically mapped on Wed 3D world. The final goal of this system is to real-time forecast flood and the results can be visually displayed on the virtual catchment. The policymaker can easily and real-time gain visual information for decision making at any site through internet.

Electrical Distribution System (EDS) and Caution and Warning System (CWS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclung, T.

1975-01-01

An astronaut caution and warning system is described which monitors various life support system parameters and detects out-of-range parameter conditions. The warning system generates a warning tone and displays the malfunction condition to the astronaut along with the proper corrective procedures required.

49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

47 CFR 87.483 - Audio visual warning systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Audio visual warning systems. 87.483 Section 87... AVIATION SERVICES Stations in the Radiodetermination Service § 87.483 Audio visual warning systems. An audio visual warning system (AVWS) is a radar-based obstacle avoidance system. AVWS activates...

49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

An Integrated 0-1 Hour First-Flash Lightning Nowcasting, Lightning Amount and Lightning Jump Warning Capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mecikalski, John; Jewett, Chris; Carey, Larry; Zavodsky, Brad; Stano, Geoffrey; Chronis, Themis

2015-01-01

Using satellite-based methods that provide accurate 0-1 hour convective initiation (CI) nowcasts, and rely on proven success coupling satellite and radar fields in the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS; operated and developed at MIT-Lincoln Laboratory), to subsequently monitor for first-flash lightning initiation (LI) and later period lightning trends as storms evolve. Enhance IR-based methods within the GOES-R CI Algorithm (that must meet specific thresholds for a given cumulus cloud before the cloud is considered to have an increased likelihood of producing lightning next 90 min) that forecast LI. Integrate GOES-R CI and LI fields with radar thresholds (e.g., first greater than or equal to 40 dBZ echo at the -10 C altitude) and NWP model data within the WDSS-II system for LI-events from new convective storms. Track ongoing lightning using Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data to assess per-storm lightning trends (e.g., as tied to lightning jumps) and outline threat regions. Evaluate the ability to produce LI nowcasts through a "lightning threat" product, and obtain feedback from National Weather Service forecasters on its value as a decision support tool.

Temporal and spatial characterization of zenith total delay (ZTD) in North Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoew, B.; Elgered, G.

2003-04-01

The estimates of ZTD are often treated as realizations of random walk stochastic processes. We derive the corresponding process parameters for 34 different locations in North Europe using two measurement techniques - Global Positioning System (GPS) and Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR). GPS-estimated ZTD is an excellent candidate for data assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in terms of both spatial and temporal resolution. We characterize the long term behavior of the ZTD as a function of site latitude and height. The spatial characteristics of the ZTD are studied as a function of site separation and season. We investigate the influence of the time-interpolated atmospheric pressure data used for the estimation of zenith wet delay (ZWD) from ZTD. Characterization of extreme atmospheric events can aid the development of an early warning system. We consider two types of extreme meteorological phenomena with regard to their spatial scales. The first type concerns larger regions (including several GPS sites); the extreme weather is characterized by intense precipitation which may result in a flood. The second type is related to local variations in the ZWD/ZTD and can be used for detection/monitoring of passing atmospheric fronts.

Studying the response of drivers against different collision warning systems: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muzammel, M.; Yusoff, M. Zuki; Malik, A. Saeed; Mohamad Saad, M. Naufal; Meriaudeau, F.

2017-03-01

The number of vehicle accidents is rapidly increasing and causing significant economic losses in many countries. According to the World Health Organization, road accidents will become the fifth major cause of death by the year 2030. To minimize these accidents different types of collision warning systems have been proposed for motor vehicle drivers. These systems can early detect and warn the drivers about the potential danger, up to a certain accuracy. Many researchers study the effectiveness of these systems by using different methods, including Electroencephalography (EEG). From the literature review, it has been observed that, these systems increase the drivers' response and can help to minimize the accidents that may occur due to drivers unconsciousness. For these collision warning systems, tactile early warnings are found more effective as compared to the auditory and visual early warnings. This review also highlights the areas, where further research can be performed to fully analyze the collision warning system. For example, some contradictions are found among researchers, about these systems' performance for drivers within different age groups. Similarly, most of the EEG studies focus on the front collision warning systems and only give beep sound to alert the drivers. Therefore, EEG study can be performed for the rear end collision warning systems, against proper auditory warning messages which indicate the types of hazards. This EEG study will help to design more friendly collision warning system and may save many lives.

Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

2003-12-01

Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated warning systems and equity issues associated with possible differential access to warnings. Finally, we will review the status of legal authorities and liabilities faced by organizations that assume various warning system roles and possible approaches to setting up a pilot project to introduce early warning. Our presentation will suggest that introducing an early warning system requires multi-disciplinary and multi-agency cooperation and thoughtful discussion among organizations likely to be providers and participants in an early warning system. Recalling our experience with earthquake prediction, we will look at early warning as a promising but unproven technology and recommend moving forward with caution and patience.

A flexible hydrological warning system in Denmark for real-time surface water and groundwater simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xin; Stisen, Simon; Wiese, Marianne B.; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans

2015-04-01

In Denmark, increasing focus on extreme weather events has created considerable demand for short term forecasts and early warnings in relation to groundwater and surface water flooding. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has setup, calibrated and applied a nationwide water resources model, the DK-Model, primarily for simulating groundwater and surface water flows and groundwater levels during the past 20 years. So far, the DK-model has only been used in offline historical and future scenario simulations. Therefore, challenges arise in operating such a model for online forecasts and early warnings, which requires access to continuously updated observed climate input data and forecast data of precipitation, temperature and global radiation for the next 48 hours or longer. GEUS has a close collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute in order to test and enable this data input for the DK model. Due to the comprehensive physical descriptions of the DK-Model, the simulation results can potentially be any component of the hydrological cycle within the models domain. Therefore, it is important to identify which results need to be updated and saved in the real-time mode, since it is not computationally economical to save every result considering the heavy load of data. GEUS have worked closely with the end-users and interest groups such as water planners and emergency managers from the municipalities, water supply and waste water companies, consulting companies and farmer organizations, in order to understand their possible needs for real time simulation and monitoring of the nationwide water cycle. This participatory process has been supported by a web based questionnaire survey, and a workshop that connected the model developers and the users. For qualifying the stakeholder engagement, GEUS has selected a representative catchment area (Skjern River) for testing and demonstrating a prototype of the web based hydrological warning system at the workshop, and illustrated simulated groundwater levels, streamflow and water content in the root zone. The webpages can be tailor-made to meet the requirements of the end-users and also enable flexibility to extend while the users' demand changes. The active involvement of stakeholders in the workshop provided very valuable insights and feedbacks for GEUS, relevant for the future development of the nationwide real-time modeling and water cycle monitoring system for Denmark, including possible linking to early warning and real-time forecasting systems operating at the local scale.

[Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model].

PubMed

Xu, Mei; Liu, Chun la; Li, Dan; Zhong, Xiao Lin

2017-11-01

Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the moderate warning. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from light warning to heavy warning; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the moderate warning; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from huge warning to no warning during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from moderate warning into light warning, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, Dave A.; Jones, Anne; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P.

2015-04-01

The severity and timing of seasonal malaria epidemics is strongly linked with temperature and rainfall. Advance warning of meteorological conditions from seasonal climate models can therefore potentially anticipate unusually strong epidemic events, building resilience and adapting to possible changes in the frequency of such events. Here we present validation of a process-based, dynamic malaria model driven by hindcasts from a state-of-the-art seasonal climate model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We validate the climate and malaria models against observed meteorological and incidence data for Botswana over the period 1982-2006 the longest record of observed incidence data which has been used to validate a modeling system of this kind. We consider the impact of climate model biases, the relationship between climate and epidemiological predictability and the potential for skillful malaria forecasts. Forecast skill is demonstrated for upper tercile malaria incidence for the Botswana malaria season (January-May), using forecasts issued at the start of November; the forecast system anticipates six out of the seven upper tercile malaria seasons in the observational period. The length of the validation time series gives confidence in the conclusion that it is possible to make reliable forecasts of seasonal malaria risk, forming a key part of a health early warning system for Botswana and contributing to efforts to adapt to climate change.

Demonstrating the Value of Near Real-time Satellite-based Earth Observations in a Research and Education Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, L.; Hao, X.; Kinter, J. L.; Stearn, G.; Aliani, M.

2017-12-01

The launch of GOES-16 series provides an opportunity to advance near real-time applications in natural hazard detection, monitoring and warning. This study demonstrates the capability and values of receiving real-time satellite-based Earth observations over a fast terrestrial networks and processing high-resolution remote sensing data in a university environment. The demonstration system includes 4 components: 1) Near real-time data receiving and processing; 2) data analysis and visualization; 3) event detection and monitoring; and 4) information dissemination. Various tools are developed and integrated to receive and process GRB data in near real-time, produce images and value-added data products, and detect and monitor extreme weather events such as hurricane, fire, flooding, fog, lightning, etc. A web-based application system is developed to disseminate near-real satellite images and data products. The images are generated with GIS-compatible format (GeoTIFF) to enable convenient use and integration in various GIS platforms. This study enhances the capacities for undergraduate and graduate education in Earth system and climate sciences, and related applications to understand the basic principles and technology in real-time applications with remote sensing measurements. It also provides an integrated platform for near real-time monitoring of extreme weather events, which are helpful for various user communities.

Method for detecting and avoiding flight hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Viebahn, Harro; Schiefele, Jens

1997-06-01

Today's aircraft equipment comprise several independent warning and hazard avoidance systems like GPWS, TCAS or weather radar. It is the pilot's task to monitor all these systems and take the appropriate action in case of an emerging hazardous situation. The developed method for detecting and avoiding flight hazards combines all potential external threats for an aircraft into a single system. It is based on an aircraft surrounding airspace model consisting of discrete volume elements. For each element of the volume the threat probability is derived or computed from sensor output, databases, or information provided via datalink. The position of the own aircraft is predicted by utilizing a probability distribution. This approach ensures that all potential positions of the aircraft within the near future are considered while weighting the most likely flight path. A conflict detection algorithm initiates an alarm in case the threat probability exceeds a threshold. An escape manoeuvre is generated taking into account all potential hazards in the vicinity, not only the one which caused the alarm. The pilot gets a visual information about the type, the locating, and severeness o the threat. The algorithm was implemented and tested in a flight simulator environment. The current version comprises traffic, terrain and obstacle hazards avoidance functions. Its general formulation allows an easy integration of e.g. weather information or airspace restrictions.

Global predictability of temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten; Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; Mason, Simon; Nissan, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Stephens, Elisabeth; Zsoter, Ervin; van den Hurk, Bart

2018-05-01

Extreme temperatures are one of the leading causes of death and disease in both developed and developing countries, and heat extremes are projected to rise in many regions. To reduce risk, heatwave plans and cold weather plans have been effectively implemented around the world. However, much of the world’s population is not yet protected by such systems, including many data-scarce but also highly vulnerable regions. In this study, we assess at a global level where such systems have the potential to be effective at reducing risk from temperature extremes, characterizing (1) long-term average occurrence of heatwaves and coldwaves, (2) seasonality of these extremes, and (3) short-term predictability of these extreme events three to ten days in advance. Using both the NOAA and ECMWF weather forecast models, we develop global maps indicating a first approximation of the locations that are likely to benefit from the development of seasonal preparedness plans and/or short-term early warning systems for extreme temperature. The extratropics generally show both short-term skill as well as strong seasonality; in the tropics, most locations do also demonstrate one or both. In fact, almost 5 billion people live in regions that have seasonality and predictability of heatwaves and/or coldwaves. Climate adaptation investments in these regions can take advantage of seasonality and predictability to reduce risks to vulnerable populations.

49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211 Section 234.211 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD....211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall...

49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211 Section 234.211 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD....211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall...

49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211 Section 234.211 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD....211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall...

49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall be secured against unauthorized entry. ...

49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall be secured against unauthorized entry. ...

KSC-08pd3218

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-10-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - Joe Buchanan (left), project lead with the ITT Corporation for the 45th Space Wing, supervises the lift of the radome to the top of a new Doppler weather radar tower being built in an area near S.R. 520 in Orange County, Fla. The dome houses the weather radar dish and pedestal and protects them from the elements. The new tower will replace one at nearby Patrick Air Force Base and will be used by NASA's Kennedy Space Center, the 45th Space Wing and their customers. The tower will be able to monitor weather conditions directly above the launch pads at Kennedy. The weather radar is essential in issuing lightning and other severe weather warnings and vital in evaluating lightning launch commit criteria. The new radar, replacing what was installed 25 years ago, includes Doppler capability to detect winds and identify the type, size and number of precipitation particles. The site is ideally distant from the launch pads and has unobstructed views of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

Real-time, rapidly updating severe weather products for virtual globes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Travis M.; Lakshmanan, Valliappa

2011-01-01

It is critical that weather forecasters are able to put severe weather information from a variety of observational and modeling platforms into a geographic context so that warning information can be effectively conveyed to the public, emergency managers, and disaster response teams. The availability of standards for the specification and transport of virtual globe data products has made it possible to generate spatially precise, geo-referenced images and to distribute these centrally created products via a web server to a wide audience. In this paper, we describe the data and methods for enabling severe weather threat analysis information inside a KML framework. The method of creating severe weather diagnosis products that are generated and translating them to KML and image files is described. We illustrate some of the practical applications of these data when they are integrated into a virtual globe display. The availability of standards for interoperable virtual globe clients has not completely alleviated the need for custom solutions. We conclude by pointing out several of the limitations of the general-purpose virtual globe clients currently available.

Monitoring and Predicting the African Climate for Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiaw, W. M.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the greatest challenges in Africa due to its impact on access to sanitary water and food. In response to this challenge, the international community has mobilized to develop famine early warning systems (FEWS) to bring safe food and water to populations in need. Over the past several decades, much attention has focused on advance risk planning in agriculture and water. This requires frequent updates of weather and climate outlooks. This paper describes the active role of NOAA's African Desk in FEWS. Emphasis is on the operational products from short and medium range weather forecasts to subseasonal and seasonal outlooks in support of humanitarian relief programs. Tools to provide access to real time weather and climate information to the public are described. These include the downscaling of the U.S. National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) to improve seasonal forecasts in support of Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). The subseasonal time scale has emerged as extremely important to many socio-economic sectors. Drawing from advances in numerical models that can now provide a better representation of the MJO, operational subseasonal forecasts are included in the African Desk product suite. These along with forecasts skill assessment and verifications are discussed. The presentation will also highlight regional hazards outlooks basis for FEWSNET food security outlooks.

An improvement of the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting system in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, D. Y.; Hsiao, N. C.; Yih-Min, W.

2017-12-01

The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan (CWB) has operated the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system for the purpose of earthquake early warning (EEW). The system has been used to report EEW messages to the general public since 2016 through text message from the mobile phones and the television programs. The system for inland earthquakes is able to provide accurate and fast warnings. The average epicenter error is about 5 km and the processing time is about 15 seconds. The epicenter error is defined as the distance between the epicenter estimated by the EEW system and the epicenter estimated by man. The processing time is defined as the time difference between the time earthquakes occurred and the time the system issued warning. The CWB seismic network consist about 200 seismic stations. In some area of Taiwan the distance between each seismic station is about 10 km. It means that when an earthquake occurred the seismic P wave is able to propagate through 6 stations, which is the minimum number of required stations in the EEW system, within 20 km. If the latency of data transmitting is about 1 sec, the P-wave velocity is about 6 km per sec and we take 3-sec length time window to estimate earthquake magnitude, then the processing should be around 8 sec. In fact, however, the average processing time is larger than this figure. Because some outliers of P-wave onset picks may exist in the beginning of the earthquake occurrence, the Geiger's method we used in the EEW system for earthquake location is not stable. It usually takes more time to wait for enough number of good picks. In this study we used grid search method to improve the estimations of earthquake location. The MAXEL algorithm (Sheen et al., 2015, 2016) was tested in the EEW system by simulating historical earthquakes occurred in Taiwan. The results show the processing time can be reduced and the location accuracy is acceptable for EEW purpose.

The EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory and allied networks, the makings of nascent Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning System in Western North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

2016-04-01

The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata, appropriate data formats, data quality assessment in real-time and other issues related to using these products operational forecasting. While progress has been made toward more open and free data access across national borders and toward more cooperation among cognizant government sanctioned "early warning" agencies, some impediments remain making a truly operational system a work in progress. Accordingly, UNAVCO has embarked on significant improvements and improvement goals to the original infrastructure and scope of the PBO. We anticipate that PBO and related networks will form a backbone for these disparate efforts providing high quality, low latency raw and processed GNSS data. This requires substantial upgrades to the entire system from the basic GNNS receiver, through robust data collection, archiving and open distribution mechanisms, to efficient data-processing strategies. UNAVCO is currently in a partnership with the commercial and scientific stakeholders to define, develop and deploy all segments of this improved geodetic network. We present the overarching goals, and current and planned future stateof this international resource.

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk of heat stress; when coupled with assessments of additional measures (e.g. water and fodder availability) can inform on alternatives that provide satisfactory performance under a wide range of states (e.g. optimal cattle breed, supplemental feed, increased water access).

14 CFR 135.153 - Ground proximity warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Ground proximity warning system. 135.153... Equipment § 135.153 Ground proximity warning system. (a) No person may operate a turbine-powered airplane... equipped with an approved ground proximity warning system. (b) [Reserved] (c) For a system required by this...

14 CFR 135.153 - Ground proximity warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Ground proximity warning system. 135.153... Equipment § 135.153 Ground proximity warning system. (a) No person may operate a turbine-powered airplane... equipped with an approved ground proximity warning system. (b) [Reserved] (c) For a system required by this...

Assessing Weather Effects on Dengue Disease in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Cheong, Yoon Ling; Burkart, Katrin; Leitão, Pedro J.; Lakes, Tobia

2013-01-01

The number of dengue cases has been increasing on a global level in recent years, and particularly so in Malaysia, yet little is known about the effects of weather for identifying the short-term risk of dengue for the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the weather effects on dengue disease accounting for non-linear temporal effects in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, from 2008 to 2010. We selected the weather parameters with a Poisson generalized additive model, and then assessed the effects of minimum temperature, bi-weekly accumulated rainfall and wind speed on dengue cases using a distributed non-linear lag model while adjusting for trend, day-of-week and week of the year. We found that the relative risk of dengue cases is positively associated with increased minimum temperature at a cumulative percentage change of 11.92% (95% CI: 4.41–32.19), from 25.4 °C to 26.5 °C, with the highest effect delayed by 51 days. Increasing bi-weekly accumulated rainfall had a positively strong effect on dengue cases at a cumulative percentage change of 21.45% (95% CI: 8.96, 51.37), from 215 mm to 302 mm, with the highest effect delayed by 26–28 days. The wind speed is negatively associated with dengue cases. The estimated lagged effects can be adapted in the dengue early warning system to assist in vector control and prevention plan. PMID:24287855

Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

PubMed

Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

2018-05-01

To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NASA's Internal Space Weather Working Group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St. Cyr, O. C.; Guhathakurta, M.; Bell, H.; Niemeyer, L.; Allen, J.

2011-01-01

Measurements from many of NASA's scientific spacecraft are used routinely by space weather forecasters, both in the U.S. and internationally. ACE, SOHO (an ESA/NASA collaboration), STEREO, and SDO provide images and in situ measurements that are assimilated into models and cited in alerts and warnings. A number of years ago, the Space Weather laboratory was established at NASA-Goddard, along with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Within that organization, a space weather service center has begun issuing alerts for NASA's operational users. NASA's operational user community includes flight operations for human and robotic explorers; atmospheric drag concerns for low-Earth orbit; interplanetary navigation and communication; and the fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, high altitude aircraft, and launch vehicles. Over the past three years we have identified internal stakeholders within NASA and formed a Working Group to better coordinate their expertise and their needs. In this presentation we will describe this activity and some of the challenges in forming a diverse working group.

Severe weather study. [for evaluating dissemination of storm forecasts meteorological services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mills, C. J.

1973-01-01

Current methods of severe weather information dissemination and the impact of this information on the general public are studied. The study is based on the responses of the general public and the local broadcasters to a severe weather incident which occurred on August 14, 1972 in the Dane County-Madison Metropolitan area. The results of the study were somewhat startling. From the sample, for instance, it was found that 45% of the Dane County population was not aware of the severe thunderstorm warning. In this case this may or may not have been critical, but had the storm been extremely severe or had a tornado and flooding been associated with the storm, a large segment of the population would have been in great danger. What this study has shown, is that the real problem with the dissemination of severe weather information is not the lack of it, but the inability to transfer it in useful form to an overwhelming majority of the general public.

14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the...

14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the...

14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can better adapt to different social settings and more efficiently reduce vulnerability.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help MOSWOC forecasters view verification results in near real-time; plans to objectively assess flare forecasts under the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project; and summarise ISES efforts to achieve consensus on verification.

Revisiting the 1993 historical extreme precipitation and damaging flood event in Central Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marahatta, S.; Adhikari, L.; Pokharel, B.

2017-12-01

Nepal is ranked the fourth most climate-vulnerable country in the world and it is prone to different weather-related hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides [Wang et al., 2013; Gillies et al., 2013]. Although extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events, there are no extreme weather warning system established to inform public in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed frequent drought and flood events, however, the extreme precipitation that occurred on 19-20 July 1993 created a devastating flood and landslide making it the worst weather disaster in the history of Nepal. During the second week of July, Nepal and northern India experienced abnormal dry condition due to the shifting of the monsoon trough to central India. The dry weather changed to wet when monsoon trough moved northward towards foothills of the Himalayas. Around the same period, a low pressure center was located over the south-central Nepal. The surface low was supported by the mid-, upper-level shortwave and cyclonic vorticity. A meso-scale convective system created record breaking one day rainfall (540 mm) in the region. The torrential rain impacted the major hydropower reservoir, Bagmati barrage in Karmaiya and triggered many landslides and flash floods. The region had the largest hydropower (Kulekhani hydropower, 92 MW) of the country at that time and the storm event deposited extremely large amount of sediments that reduced one-fourth (4.8 million m3) of reservoir dead storage (12 million m3). The 1-in-1000 years flood damaged the newly constructed barrage and took more than 700 lives. Major highways were damaged cutting off supply of daily needed goods, including food and gas, in the capital city, Kathmandu, for more than a month. In this presentation, the meteorological conditions of the extreme event will be diagnosed and the impact of the sedimentation due to the flood on Kulekhani reservoir and hydropower generation will be discussed.

Development of a multi-sensor based urban discharge forecasting system using remotely sensed data: A case study of extreme rainfall in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Sunkwon; Jang, Sangmin; Park, Kyungwon

2017-04-01

Extreme weather due to changing climate is a main source of water-related disasters such as flooding and inundation and its damage will be accelerated somewhere in world wide. To prevent the water-related disasters and mitigate their damage in urban areas in future, we developed a multi-sensor based real-time discharge forecasting system using remotely sensed data such as radar and satellite. We used Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) and Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) weather radar for quantitative precipitation estimation. The Automatic Weather System (AWS) and McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) were used for verification of rainfall accuracy. The optimal Z-R relation was applied the Tropical Z-R relationship (Z=32R1.65), it has been confirmed that the accuracy is improved in the extreme rainfall events. In addition, the performance of blended multi-sensor combining rainfall was improved in 60mm/h rainfall and more strong heavy rainfall events. Moreover, we adjusted to forecast the urban discharge using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Several statistical methods have been used for assessment of model simulation between observed and simulated discharge. In terms of the correlation coefficient and r-squared discharge between observed and forecasted were highly correlated. Based on this study, we captured a possibility of real-time urban discharge forecasting system using remotely sensed data and its utilization for real-time flood warning. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (13AWMP-B066744-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korean government.

Recent Activities on the Embrace Space Weather Regional Warning Center: the New Space Weather Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Dal Lago, Alisson; Mendes, Odim; Batista, Inez S.; SantAnna, Nilson; Gatto, Rubens; Takahashi, Hisao; Costa, D. Joaquim; Banik Padua, Marcelo; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2016-07-01

On August 2007 the National Institute for Space Research started a task force to develop and operate a space weather program, which is known by the acronyms Embrace that stands for the Portuguese statement "Estudo e Monitoramento BRAasileiro de Clima Espacial" Program (Brazilian Space Weather Study and Monitoring program). The mission of the Embrace/INPE program is to monitor the Solar-Terrestrial environment, the magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere and the ground induced currents to prevent effects on technological and economic activities. The Embrace/INPE system monitors the physical parameters of the Sun-Earth environment, such as Active Regions (AR) in the Sun and solar radiation by using radio telescope, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) information by satellite and ground-based cosmic ray monitoring, geomagnetic activity by the magnetometer network, and ionospheric disturbance by ionospheric sounders and using data collected by four GPS receiver network, geomagnetic activity by a magnetometer network, and provides a forecasting for Total Electronic Content (TEC) - 24 hours ahead - using a version of the SUPIM model which assimilates the two latter data using nudging approach. Most of these physical parameters are daily published on the Brazilian space weather program web portal, related to the entire network sensors available. Regarding outreach, it has being published a daily bulletin in Portuguese and English with the status of the space weather environment on the Sun, the Interplanetary Medium and close to the Earth. Since December 2011, all these activities are carried out at the Embrace Headquarter, a building located at the INPE's main campus. Recently, a comprehensive data bank and an interface layer are under commissioning to allow an easy and direct access to all the space weather data collected by Embrace through the Embrace web Portal. The information being released encompasses data from: (a) the Embrace Digisonde Network (Embrace DigiNet) that monitors the ionospheric profiles in two equatorial sites and in two low latitude sites; (b) several solar radio telescopes to monitor solar activity (under development); (c) the matrix of the GNSS TEC map over South America; (d) the Embrace Airglow All-sky Imagers Network (Embrace GlowNet); and (d) the Embrace Magnetometer Network (Embrace Magnet), all of them in South America. Also, the system allows subscription to space weather alerts and reports. Contacting Author: C. M. Denardini (clezio.denardin@inpe.br)

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, C. J.; Carey, L. D.; Schultz, E. V.; Stano, G. T.; Blakeslee, R.; Goodman, S. J.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the total lightning jump algorithm (LJA) is to provide forecasters with an additional tool to identify potentially hazardous thunderstorms, yielding increased confidence in decisions within the operational warning environment. The LJA was first developed to objectively indentify rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") that occur prior to the observance of severe and hazardous weather (Williams et al. 1999, Schultz et al. 2009, Gatlin and Goodman 2010, Schultz et al. 2011). However, a physical and framework leading up to and through the time of a lightning jump is still lacking within the literature. Many studies infer that there is a large increase in the updraft prior to or during the jump, but are not specific on what properties of the updraft are indeed increasing (e.g., maximum updraft speed vs volume or both) likely because these properties were not specifically observed. Therefore, the purpose of this work is to physically associate lightning jump occurrence to polarimetric and multi-Doppler radar measured thunderstorm intensity metrics and severe weather occurrence, thus providing a conceptual model that can be used to adapt the LJA to current operations.

Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

2016-04-01

High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message by the WERA radars to TEWS. The radar measurements can be used to confirm a pre-warning and raise a tsunami alert. The output data of WERA processing software can be easily integrated into existing TEWS due to flexible data format, fast update rate and quality control of measurements. The archived radar data can be used for further hazard analysis and research purposes. The newly launched Tsunami Warning Center in Oman is one of the most sophisticated tsunami warning system world-wide applying a mix of well proven state-of-the-art subsystems. It allows the acquisition of data from many different sensor systems including seismic stations, GNSS, tide gauges, and WERA ocean radars in one acquisition system providing access to all sensor data via a common interface. The TEWS in Oman also integrates measurements of a modern network of HF ocean radars to verify tsunami simulations, which give additional scenario quality information and confirmation to the decision support.

Near-real time forecasts of MeV protons based on sub-relativistic electrons: communicating the outputs to the end users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarlanis, Christos; Heber, Bernd; Labrenz, Johannes; Kühl, Patrick; Marquardt, Johannes; Dimitroulakos, John; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Posner, Arik

2017-04-01

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are one of the most important elements of space weather. Given that the complexity of the underlying physical processes of the acceleration and propagation of SEP events is still a very active research area, the prognosis of SEP event occurrence and their corresponding characteristics remains challenging. In order to provide up to an hour warning time before these particles arrive at Earth, relativistic electron and below 50 MeV proton data from the Electron Proton Helium Instrument (EPHIN) on SOHO were used to implement the 'Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE)'. The REleASE forecasting scheme was recently rewritten in the open access programming language PYTHON and will be made publicly available. As a next step, along with relativistic electrons (v > 0.9 c) provided by SOHO, near-relativistic (v <0.8 c) electron measurements from other instruments like the Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM) aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) have been utilized. In this work, we demonstrate the real-time outputs derived by the end user from the REleASE using both SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM. We further, show a user friendly illustration of the outputs that make use of a "traffic light" to monitor the different warning stages: quiet, warning, alert offering a simple guidance to the end users. Finally, the capabilities offered by this new system, accessing both the pictorial and textural outputs REleASE are being presented. This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

Windshear warning aerospatiale approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonafe, J. L.

1988-01-01

Vugraphs and transcribed remarks of a presentation on Aerospatiale's approach to windshear warning systems are given. Information is given on low altitude wind shear probability, wind shear warning models and warning system false alarms.

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Koshak, W. J.; Mach, D. M.; Bailey, J. C.; Buechler, D. E.; Carey, L. D.; Schultz, C. J.; Bateman, M. G.; McCaul, E., Jr.; Stano, G. T.

2012-12-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series provides the continuity for the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. New and improved instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution for the next generation Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The GLM will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency among a number of potential applications. In parallel with the instrument development, an Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Lightning Detection Science and Applications Team developed the Level 2 (stroke and flash) algorithms from the Level 1 lightning event (pixel level) data. Proxy data sets used to develop the GLM operational algorithms as well as cal/val performance monitoring tools were derived from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) instruments in low earth orbit, and from ground-based lightning networks and intensive pre-launch field campaigns. GLM will produce the same or similar lightning flash attributes provided by the LIS and OTD, and thus extends their combined climatology over the western hemisphere into the coming decades. Science and application development along with pre-operational product demonstrations and evaluations at NWS forecast offices and NOAA testbeds will prepare the forecasters to use GLM as soon as possible after the planned launch and check-out of GOES-R in late 2015. New applications will use GLM alone, in combination with the ABI, or integrated (fused) with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks, nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Results from recent field campaigns and forecaster evaluations on the utility of the total lightning products will be presented.

High-resolution space-time characterization of convective rain cells: implications on spatial aggregation and temporal sampling operated by coarser resolution instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, Francesco; Morin, Efrat

2017-04-01

Forecasting the occurrence of flash floods and debris flows is fundamental to save lives and protect infrastructures and properties. These natural hazards are generated by high-intensity convective storms, on space-time scales that cannot be properly monitored by conventional instrumentation. Consequently, a number of early-warning systems are nowadays based on remote sensing precipitation observations, e.g. from weather radars or satellites, that proved effective in a wide range of situations. However, the uncertainty affecting rainfall estimates represents an important issue undermining the operational use of early-warning systems. The uncertainty related to remote sensing estimates results from (a) an instrumental component, intrinsic of the measurement operation, and (b) a discretization component, caused by the discretization of the continuous rainfall process. Improved understanding on these sources of uncertainty will provide crucial information to modelers and decision makers. This study aims at advancing knowledge on the (b) discretization component. To do so, we take advantage of an extremely-high resolution X-Band weather radar (60 m, 1 min) recently installed in the Eastern Mediterranean. The instrument monitors a semiarid to arid transition area also covered by an accurate C-Band weather radar and by a relatively sparse rain gauge network ( 1 gauge/ 450 km2). Radar quantitative precipitation estimation includes corrections reducing the errors due to ground echoes, orographic beam blockage and attenuation of the signal in heavy rain. Intense, convection-rich, flooding events recently occurred in the area serve as study cases. We (i) describe with very high detail the spatiotemporal characteristics of the convective cores, and (ii) quantify the uncertainty due to spatial aggregation (spatial discretization) and temporal sampling (temporal discretization) operated by coarser resolution remote sensing instruments. We show that instantaneous rain intensity decreases very steeply with the distance from the core of convection with intensity observed at 1 km (2 km) being 10-40% (1-20%) of the core value. The use of coarser temporal resolutions leads to gaps in the observed rainfall and even relatively high resolutions (5 min) can be affected by the problem. We conclude providing to the final user indications about the effects of the discretization component of estimation uncertainty and suggesting viable ways to decrease them.

Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Koshak, W.

2008-01-01

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR imager/optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch readiness in December 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fUlly operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous, full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight models will be underway in the latter part of 2007. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data are being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region. This effort is designed to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings.

14 CFR 23.703 - Takeoff warning system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... takeoff. The warning must continue until— (1) The configuration is changed to allow safe takeoff, or (2... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Takeoff warning system. 23.703 Section 23... Control Systems § 23.703 Takeoff warning system. For all airplanes with a maximum weight more than 6,000...

Interplanetary CubeSats system for space weather evaluations and technology demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viscio, Maria Antonietta; Viola, Nicole; Corpino, Sabrina; Stesina, Fabrizio; Fineschi, Silvano; Fumenti, Federico; Circi, Christian

2014-11-01

The paper deals with the mission analysis and conceptual design of an interplanetary 6U CubeSats system to be implemented in the L1 Earth-Sun Lagrangian Point mission for solar observation and in-situ space weather measurements. Interplanetary CubeSats could be an interesting alternative to big missions, to fulfill both scientific and technological tasks in deep space, as proved by the growing interest in this kind of application in the scientific community and most of all at NASA. Such systems allow less costly missions, due to their reduced sizes and volumes, and consequently less demanding launches requirements. The CubeSats mission presented in this paper is aimed at supporting measurements of space weather. The mission envisages the deployment of a 6U CubeSats system in the L1 Earth-Sun Lagrangian Point, where solar observations for in situ measurements of space weather to provide additional warning time to Earth can be carried out. The proposed mission is also intended as a technology validation mission, giving the chance to test advanced technologies, such as telecommunications and solar sails, envisaged as propulsion system. Furthermore, traveling outside the Van Allen belts, the 6U CubeSats system gives the opportunity to further investigate the space radiation environment: radiation dosimeters and advanced materials are envisaged to be implemented, in order to test their response to the harsh space environment, even in view of future implementation on other spacecrafts (e.g. manned spacecrafts). The main issue related to CubeSats is how to fit big science within a small package - namely power, mass, volume, and data limitations. One of the objectives of the work is therefore to identify and size the required subsystems and equipment, needed to accomplish specific mission objectives, and to investigate the most suitable configuration, in order to be compatible with the typical CubeSats (multi units) standards. The work has been developed as collaboration between Politecnico di Torino, Sapienza University of Rome, "Osservatorio Astrofisico di Torino - INAF" (Astrophysical Observatory of Torino) and Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) in Bremen.

Analysis and design of the ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wen-cong; Hu, Hui-jun; Jin, Dong-dong; Chu, Xin-bo; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Liu, Jin-sheng; Xiao, Ting; Shao, Si-pei

2017-10-01

Ultraviolet warning technology is one of the important methods for missile warning. It provides a very effective way to detect the target for missile approaching alarm. With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. Compared to infrared warning, the ultraviolet warning has high efficiency and low false alarm rate. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge of missile warning technology. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. For the ultraviolet warning system, the optimal working waveband is 250 nm 280 nm (Solar Blind UV) due to the strong absorption of ozone layer. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure includes a primary optical system, an ultraviolet reflector array, an ultraviolet imaging system and an ultraviolet interference imaging system. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm.A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

2010-05-01

Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning context has been worked out. The generated results contribute significantly in the fields of (1) warning decision and warning levels, (2) warning dissemination and warning message content, (3) early warning chain planning, (4) increasing response capabilities and protective systems, (5) emergency relief and (6) enhancing communities' awareness and preparedness towards tsunami threats. Additionally examples will be given on the potentials of an operational use of risk information in early warning systems as first experiences exist for the tsunami early warning center in Jakarta, Indonesia. Beside this the importance of linking national level early warning information with tsunami risk information available at the local level (e.g. linking warning message information on expected intensity with respective tsunami hazard zone maps at community level for effective evacuation) will be demonstrated through experiences gained in three pilot areas in Indonesia. The presentation seeks to provide new insights on benefits using risk information in early warning and will provide further evidence that practical use of risk information is an important and indispensable component of end-to-end early warning.

Investigating Over Critical Thresholds of Forest Megafires Danger Conditions in Europe Utilising the ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroliagkis, Thomas I.; Camia, Andrea; Liberta, Giorgio; Durrant, Tracy; Pappenberger, Florian; San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus

2014-05-01

The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) has been established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate General for Environment (DG ENV) of the European Commission (EC) to support the services in charge of the protection of forests against fires in the EU and neighbour countries, and also to provide the EC services and the European Parliament with information on forest fires in Europe. Within its applications, EFFIS provides current and forecast meteorological fire danger maps up to 6 days. Weather plays a key role in affecting wildfire occurrence and behaviour. Meteorological parameters can be used to derive meteorological fire weather indices that provide estimations of fire danger level at a given time over a specified area of interest. In this work, we investigate the suitability of critical thresholds of fire danger to provide an early warning for megafires (fires > 500 ha) over Europe. Past trends of fire danger are analysed computing daily fire danger from weather data taken from re-analysis fields for a period of 31 years (1980 to 2010). Re-analysis global data sets coming from the construction of high-quality climate records, which combine past observations collected from many different observing and measuring platforms, are capable of describing how Fire Danger Indices have evolved over time at a global scale. The latest and most updated ERA-Interim dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was used to extract meteorological variables needed to compute daily values of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI) over Europe, with a horizontal resolution of about 75x75 km. Daily time series of CFWI were constructed and analysed over a total of 1,071 European NUTS3 centroids, resulting in a set of percentiles and critical thresholds. Such percentiles could be used as thresholds to help fire services establish a measure of the significance of CFWI outputs as they relate to levels of fire potential, fuel conditions and fire danger. Median percentile values of fire days accumulated over the 31-year period were compared to median values of all days from that period. As expected, the CWFI time series exhibit different values on fire days than on all days. In addition, a percentile analysis was performed in order to determine the behaviour of index values corresponding to fire events falling into the megafire category. This analysis resulted in a set of critical thresholds based on percentiles. By utilising such thresholds, an initial framework of an early warning system has being established. By lowering the value of any of these thresholds, the number of hits could be increased until all extremes were captured (resulting in zero misses). However, in doing so, the number of false alarms tends to increase significantly. Consequently, an optimal trade-off between hits and false alarms has to be established when setting different (critical) CFWI thresholds.

DRIHM Project: Floods in Serbia in May 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivkovic, Marija; Dimitrijevic, Vladimir; Dekic, Ljiljana; Mihalovic, Ana; Pejanovic, Goran

2015-04-01

The central parts of Balkans were affected with very deep cyclone named "Tamara" form 13th until 16th of May. Stations in western parts of Serbia recorded precipitation four times greater than average precipitation sums. Two third of that amount has felt in three days. Devastating floods occurred on Sava, Kolubara and Jadar river basins causing damage of 1.7 billion Euros, and loss of 24 human lives. Three days before the event, a first warning was issued pointing that the precipitation amounts will exceed 40 mm of rain for 12 hours, accompanied with the hydrological information that the water level on Sava and Kolubara rivers will significantly rise. Within the DRIHM project and its e-infrastructure it was possible to test a combination of different Numerical Weather Prediction models together with stochastic downscaling algorithms to enable the production of more effective quantitative rainfall predictions for this severe meteorological event. Hydrometeorological models in DRIHM are building blocks that can be easily linked together in a form of hydrometeorological chain. For this case the HBV model, distributed hydrological model, was used as the hydrological component in the model chain and RainFARM as stochastic downscaling tool. Results obtained with these models are shown and compared with Hyprom, one of the hydrological models also used in RHMSS with the aim of scoping the current capabilities for the early warning of the extreme events. The information where and when the High Impact Weather Event (HIWE) can occur is very important for the proper overview of the possible overall influence. Different precipitation distribution both in space and in time is allowing us to estimate the future state of the system but also to see the range of the possible outcomes.

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Ahlm, Clas; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-01-01

Malaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), day Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya. The lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags. This study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

Development and Application of a Message Metric for NOAA NWS Tsunami Warnings and Recommended Guidelines for the NWS TsunamiReady Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D. M.; Ricthie, L.; Meinhold, S.; Johnson, V.; Scott, C.; Farnham, C.; Houghton, B. F.; Horan, J.; Gill, D.

2012-12-01

Improving the quality and effectiveness of tsunami warning messages and the TsunamiReady community preparedness program of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service's (NWS), Tsunami Program are two key objectives of a three year project (Award NA10NWS4670015) to help integrate social science into the NWS' Tsunami Program and improve the preparedness of member states and territories of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). Research was conducted in collaboration with state and local emergency managers. Based on findings from focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa), and upon review of research literature on behavioral response to warnings, we developed a warning message metric to help guide revisions to tsunami warning messages issued by the NWS' West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, Alaska and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Hawaii. The metric incorporates factors that predict response to warning information, which are divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the meaning of metric factors and assigning a maximum score of one point per factor. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. From focus groups that gathered information on the usefulness and achievability of tsunami preparedness actions, we developed recommendations for revisions to the proposed draft guidelines of the TsunamiReady Improvement Program. Proposed key revisions include the incorporation of community vulnerability to distant (far-field) versus local (near-field) tsunamis as a primary determinant of mandatory actions, rather than community population. Our team continues to work with NWS personnel, including a NWS Tsunami Warning Improvement Team, and the focus group participants to finalize and pilot test prototype warning products and the draft TsunamiReady guidelines.

Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-05-01

Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities were underestimated by 20% at a scale of 1000 km2, and the local peaks by 50%. The positive impact of the assimilated radar rainfall was carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 hours, depending on when this forecast was started, and was larger, when the main mesoscale convective system was present in the initial conditions. The improvements of the meteorological model simulations were directly propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the warning lead time up to three hours.

An Assessment of Capacity, Gaps and Opportunities toward Building a Global Early Warning System for Flood Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Adler, R.; Huffman, G.

2007-12-01

Many governmental emergency management agencies or non-governmental organizations need real-time information on emerging disasters for preparedness and response. However, progress in warnings for hydrologic disasters has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of rainfall fluxes continuously over space and time, due largely to insufficient ground monitoring networks, long delay in data transmission and absence of data sharing protocols among many geopolitically trans-boundary basins. In addition, in-situ gauging stations are often washed away by the very floods they are designed to monitor, making reconstruction of gauges a common post-flood activity around the world. In reality, remote sensing precipitation estimates may be the only source of rainfall information available over much of the globe, particularly for vulnerable countries in the tropics where abundant extreme rain storms and severe flooding events repeat every year. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and weather radar sensors. Today, remote sensing imagery acquired and processed in real time can provide near-real-time rainfall fluxes at relatively fine spatiotemporal scales (kilometers to tens of kilometers and 30-minute to 3-hour). These new suites of rainfall products have the potential to support daily decision-making in analysis of hydrologic hazards. This talk will address several key issues, including remote sensing rainfall retrieval and data assimilation, for hydrologists to develop alternative satellite-based flood warning systems that may supplement in-situ infrastructure when conventional data sources are denied due to natural or administrative causes. This talk will also assess a module-structure global flood prediction system that has been running at real-time by integrating remote sensing forcing data with simplified hydrological models, in an effort to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building cost-effective flood warning systems for the data-spares regions of the world. The real-time outlook of hazardous floods will quickly disseminate through an open-access web-interface to many agencies and organizations for their daily decision-making, with the potential to save human life and reduce economic impacts. The interactive Web interface will also show close-up maps of the disaster risks overlaid on population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool.

Weather variables and the El Niño Southern Oscillation may drive the epidemics of dengue in Guangdong Province, China.

PubMed

Xiao, Jianpeng; Liu, Tao; Lin, Hualiang; Zhu, Guanghu; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xing; Zhang, Bing; Song, Tie; Deng, Aiping; Zhang, Meng; Zhong, Haojie; Lin, Shao; Rutherford, Shannon; Meng, Xiaojing; Zhang, Yonghui; Ma, Wenjun

2018-05-15

To investigate the periodicity of dengue and the relationship between weather variables, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dengue incidence in Guangdong Province, China. Guangdong monthly dengue incidence and weather data and El Niño index information for 1988 to 2015 were collected. Wavelet analysis was used to investigate the periodicity of dengue, and the coherence and time-lag phases between dengue and weather variables and ENSO. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) approach was further employed to explore the dose-response relationship of those variables on dengue. Finally, random forest analysis was applied to measure the relative importance of the climate predictors. Dengue in Guangdong has a dominant annual periodicity over the period 1988-2015. Mean minimum temperature, total precipitation, and mean relative humidity are positively related to dengue incidence for 2, 3, and 4months lag, respectively. ENSO in the previous 12months may have driven the dengue epidemics in 1995, 2002, 2006 and 2010 in Guangdong. GAM analysis indicates an approximate linear association for the temperature-dengue relationship, approximate logarithm curve for the humidity-dengue relationship, and an inverted U-shape association for the precipitation-dengue (the threshold of precipitation is 348mm per month) and ENSO-dengue relationships (the threshold of ENSO index is 0.6°C). The monthly mean minimum temperature in the previous two months was identified as the most important climate variable associated with dengue epidemics in Guangdong Province. Our study suggests weather factors and ENSO are important predictors of dengue incidence. These findings provide useful evidence for early warning systems to help to respond to the global expansion of dengue fever. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe, the PHEWE project: background, objectives, design

PubMed Central

Michelozzi, Paola; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Katsouyanni, Klea; Biggeri, Annibale; McGregor, Glenn; Menne, Bettina; Kassomenos, Pavlos; Anderson, Hugh Ross; Baccini, Michela; Accetta, Gabriele; Analytis, Antonis; Kosatsky, Tom

2007-01-01

Background The project "Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe" (PHEWE) had the aim of assessing the association between weather conditions and acute health effects, during both warm and cold seasons in 16 European cities with widely differing climatic conditions and to provide information for public health policies. Methods The PHEWE project was a three-year pan-European collaboration between epidemiologists, meteorologists and experts in public health. Meteorological, air pollution and mortality data from 16 cities and hospital admission data from 12 cities were available from 1990 to 2000. The short-term effect on mortality/morbidity was evaluated through city-specific and pooled time series analysis. The interaction between weather and air pollutants was evaluated and health impact assessments were performed to quantify the effect on the different populations. A heat/health watch warning system to predict oppressive weather conditions and alert the population was developed in a subgroup of cities and information on existing prevention policies and of adaptive strategies was gathered. Results Main results were presented in a symposium at the conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology in Paris on September 6th 2006 and will be published as scientific articles. The present article introduces the project and includes a description of the database and the framework of the applied methodology. Conclusion The PHEWE project offers the opportunity to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in 16 European cities, representing a wide range of climatic, socio-demographic and cultural characteristics; the use of a standardized methodology allows for direct comparison between cities. PMID:17456236

Weather and Climate Indicators for Coffee Rust Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, S.; Imbach, P. A.; Avelino, J.; Anzueto, F.; del Carmen Calderón, G.

2014-12-01

Coffee rust is a disease that has significant impacts on the livelihoods of those who are dependent on the Central American coffee sector. Our investigation has focussed on the weather and climate indicators that favoured the high incidence of coffee rust disease in Central America in 2012 by assessing daily temperature and precipitation data available from 81 weather stations in the INSIVUMEH and ANACAFE networks located in Guatemala. The temperature data were interpolated to determine the corresponding daily data at 1250 farms located across Guatemala, between 400 and 1800 m elevation. Additionally, CHIRPS five day (pentad) data has been used to assess the anomalies between the 2012 and the climatological average precipitation data at farm locations. The weather conditions in 2012 displayed considerable variations from the climatological data. In general the minimum daily temperatures were higher than the corresponding climatology while the maximum temperatures were lower. As a result, the daily diurnal temperature range was generally lower than the corresponding climatological range, leading to an increased number of days where the temperatures fell within the optimal range for either influencing the susceptibility of the coffee plants to coffee rust development during the dry season, or for the development of lesions on the coffee leaves during the wet season. The coffee rust latency period was probably shortened as a result, and farms at high altitudes were impacted due to these increases in minimum temperature. Factors taken into consideration in developing indicators for coffee rust development include: the diurnal temperature range, altitude, the environmental lapse rate and the phenology. We will present the results of our study and discuss the potential for each of the derived weather and climatological indicators to be used within risk assessments and to eventually be considered for use within an early warning system for coffee rust disease.

Probabilistic forecasting of extreme weather events based on extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert

2016-04-01

Extreme events in weather and climate such as high wind gusts, heavy precipitation or extreme temperatures are commonly associated with high impacts on both environment and society. Forecasting extreme weather events is difficult, and very high-resolution models are needed to describe explicitly extreme weather phenomena. A prediction system for such events should therefore preferably be probabilistic in nature. Probabilistic forecasts and state estimations are nowadays common in the numerical weather prediction community. In this work, we develop a new probabilistic framework based on extreme value theory that aims to provide early warnings up to several days in advance. We consider the combined events when an observation variable Y (for instance wind speed) exceeds a high threshold y and its corresponding deterministic forecasts X also exceeds a high forecast threshold y. More specifically two problems are addressed:} We consider pairs (X,Y) of extreme events where X represents a deterministic forecast, and Y the observation variable (for instance wind speed). More specifically two problems are addressed: Given a high forecast X=x_0, what is the probability that Y>y? In other words: provide inference on the conditional probability: [ Pr{Y>y|X=x_0}. ] Given a probabilistic model for Problem 1, what is the impact on the verification analysis of extreme events. These problems can be solved with bivariate extremes (Coles, 2001), and the verification analysis in (Ferro, 2007). We apply the Ramos and Ledford (2009) parametric model for bivariate tail estimation of the pair (X,Y). The model accommodates different types of extremal dependence and asymmetry within a parsimonious representation. Results are presented using the ensemble reforecast system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (Hagedorn, 2008). Coles, S. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical modelling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag.Ferro, C.A.T. (2007) A probability model for verifying deterministic forecasts of extreme events. Wea. Forecasting {22}, 1089-1100.Hagedorn, R. (2008) Using the ECMWF reforecast dataset to calibrate EPS forecasts. ECMWF Newsletter, {117}, 8-13.Ramos, A., Ledford, A. (2009) A new class of models for bivariate joint tails. J.R. Statist. Soc. B {71}, 219-241.

Communicating Climate Change - Weather Forecast Need Assessment and Information Dissemination Mechanism to Farmers in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is affecting all sectors mainly fresh water, agriculture, forest, biodiversity and species. The subsistence agriculture system of Nepal is mainly rain-fed; therefore, climate change and climate extremes do have direct impacts on it. Weather extremes like droughts, floods and landslides long-lasting fog, hot and cold waves are affecting the agriculture sectors of Nepal. As human-induced climate change has already showing its impacts and it is going to be there for a long time to come, it is paramount importance to move towards the adaptation. Early warning system is an effective way for reducing the impacts of disasters. Forecasting of weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) helps farmers for their preparedness activities. With consultation with farmers and other relevant institutions, a research project was carried out, for the first time in Nepal, to identify the forecast information need to farmers and their dissemination mechanism. Community consultation workshops, key informant survey, and field observations were the techniques used for this research. Two ecological locations: Bageshwori VDC in Banke (plain) and Dhaibung VDC in Rasuwa (mountain) were taken as the pilot sites for this assessment. People in both the districts are dependent highly on agriculture and the weather extremes like hailstone, untimely rainfall; droughts are affecting their agriculture practices. They do not have confidence in the weather forecast information disseminated by the government of Nepal currently being done because it is a general forecast not done for a smaller domain and the forecast is valid only for 24 hours. The weather forecast need to the farmers in both the sites are: rainfall (intensity, duration and time), drought, and hailstone but in Banke, people wished to have the information of heat and cold waves too as they are affecting their wheat and tomato crops respectively the most. The mechanism of dissemination of the forecast information has been identified and agreed as local radio/FM, mobile telephoning to community leader and displaying and daily updating the forecast information in community hoarding boards.

Lightning Applications in Weather and Climate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Colin G.

2013-11-01

Thunderstorms, and lightning in particular, are a major natural hazard to the public, aviation, power companies, and wildfire managers. Lightning causes great damage and death every year but also tells us about the inner working of storms. Since lightning can be monitored from great distances from the storms themselves, lightning may allow us to provide early warnings for severe weather phenomena such as hail storms, flash floods, tornadoes, and even hurricanes. Lightning itself may impact the climate of the Earth by producing nitrogen oxides (NOx), a precursor of tropospheric ozone, which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Thunderstorms themselves influence the climate system by the redistribution of heat, moisture, and momentum in the atmosphere. What about future changes in lightning and thunderstorm activity? Many studies show that higher surface temperatures produce more lightning, but future changes will depend on what happens to the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere, as well as changes in water balance, and even aerosol loading of the atmosphere. Finally, lightning itself may provide a useful tool for tracking climate change in the future, due to the nonlinear link between lightning, temperature, upper tropospheric water vapor, and cloud cover.