A Monte Carlo study of Weibull reliability analysis for space shuttle main engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abernethy, K.

1986-01-01

The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.

A practical and systematic review of Weibull statistics for reporting strengths of dental materials

PubMed Central

Quinn, George D.; Quinn, Janet B.

2011-01-01

Objectives To review the history, theory and current applications of Weibull analyses sufficient to make informed decisions regarding practical use of the analysis in dental material strength testing. Data References are made to examples in the engineering and dental literature, but this paper also includes illustrative analyses of Weibull plots, fractographic interpretations, and Weibull distribution parameters obtained for a dense alumina, two feldspathic porcelains, and a zirconia. Sources Informational sources include Weibull's original articles, later articles specific to applications and theoretical foundations of Weibull analysis, texts on statistics and fracture mechanics and the international standards literature. Study Selection The chosen Weibull analyses are used to illustrate technique, the importance of flaw size distributions, physical meaning of Weibull parameters and concepts of “equivalent volumes” to compare measured strengths obtained from different test configurations. Conclusions Weibull analysis has a strong theoretical basis and can be of particular value in dental applications, primarily because of test specimen size limitations and the use of different test configurations. Also endemic to dental materials, however, is increased difficulty in satisfying application requirements, such as confirming fracture origin type and diligence in obtaining quality strength data. PMID:19945745

Bonus-Malus System with the Claim Frequency Distribution is Geometric and the Severity Distribution is Truncated Weibull

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santi, D. N.; Purnaba, I. G. P.; Mangku, I. W.

2016-01-01

Bonus-Malus system is said to be optimal if it is financially balanced for insurance companies and fair for policyholders. Previous research about Bonus-Malus system concern with the determination of the risk premium which applied to all of the severity that guaranteed by the insurance company. In fact, not all of the severity that proposed by policyholder may be covered by insurance company. When the insurance company sets a maximum bound of the severity incurred, so it is necessary to modify the model of the severity distribution into the severity bound distribution. In this paper, optimal Bonus-Malus system is compound of claim frequency component has geometric distribution and severity component has truncated Weibull distribution is discussed. The number of claims considered to follow a Poisson distribution, and the expected number λ is exponentially distributed, so the number of claims has a geometric distribution. The severity with a given parameter θ is considered to have a truncated exponential distribution is modelled using the Levy distribution, so the severity have a truncated Weibull distribution.

Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY OF A SYSTEM MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS AFIT/GOR/MA/81D-8 Philippe A. Lussier 2nd Lt USAF... MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology...repetitions are used for these test procedures. vi Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter

A log-Weibull spatial scan statistic for time to event data.

PubMed

Usman, Iram; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

2018-06-13

Spatial scan statistics have been used for the identification of geographic clusters of elevated numbers of cases of a condition such as disease outbreaks. These statistics accompanied by the appropriate distribution can also identify geographic areas with either longer or shorter time to events. Other authors have proposed the spatial scan statistics based on the exponential and Weibull distributions. We propose the log-Weibull as an alternative distribution for the spatial scan statistic for time to events data and compare and contrast the log-Weibull and Weibull distributions through simulation studies. The effect of type I differential censoring and power have been investigated through simulated data. Methods are also illustrated on time to specialist visit data for discharged patients presenting to emergency departments for atrial fibrillation and flutter in Alberta during 2010-2011. We found northern regions of Alberta had longer times to specialist visit than other areas. We proposed the spatial scan statistic for the log-Weibull distribution as a new approach for detecting spatial clusters for time to event data. The simulation studies suggest that the test performs well for log-Weibull data.

An EOQ Model with Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution Deterioration and Price-Dependent Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mukhopadhyay, Sushanta; Mukherjee, R. N.; Chaudhuri, K. S.

2005-01-01

An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

Weibull Modulus Estimated by the Non-linear Least Squares Method: A Solution to Deviation Occurring in Traditional Weibull Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Griffiths, W. D.; Chen, J.

2017-11-01

The Maximum Likelihood method and the Linear Least Squares (LLS) method have been widely used to estimate Weibull parameters for reliability of brittle and metal materials. In the last 30 years, many researchers focused on the bias of Weibull modulus estimation, and some improvements have been achieved, especially in the case of the LLS method. However, there is a shortcoming in these methods for a specific type of data, where the lower tail deviates dramatically from the well-known linear fit in a classic LLS Weibull analysis. This deviation can be commonly found from the measured properties of materials, and previous applications of the LLS method on this kind of dataset present an unreliable linear regression. This deviation was previously thought to be due to physical flaws ( i.e., defects) contained in materials. However, this paper demonstrates that this deviation can also be caused by the linear transformation of the Weibull function, occurring in the traditional LLS method. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to carry out a Weibull analysis according to the linearized Weibull function, and the Non-linear Least Squares method (Non-LS) is instead recommended for the Weibull modulus estimation of casting properties.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shantaram, S. Pai; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parametes of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by using the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Fisher information for two gamma frailty bivariate Weibull models.

PubMed

Bjarnason, H; Hougaard, P

2000-03-01

The asymptotic properties of frailty models for multivariate survival data are not well understood. To study this aspect, the Fisher information is derived in the standard bivariate gamma frailty model, where the survival distribution is of Weibull form conditional on the frailty. For comparison, the Fisher information is also derived in the bivariate gamma frailty model, where the marginal distribution is of Weibull form.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1988-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by uing the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded. The techniques described were verified with several example problems from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Vicek, Brian L.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic failure analysis is essential when analysis of stress-life (S-N) curves is inconclusive in determining the relative ranking of two or more materials. In 1964, L. Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Simplified algebraic equations for confidence numbers were derived based on the original work of L. Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers deviated less than one percent from those of Johnson. It is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers. These equations were applied to rotating beam fatigue tests that were conducted on three aluminum alloys at three stress levels each. These alloys were AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075. The results were analyzed and compared using ASTM Standard E739-91 and the Johnson-Weibull analysis. The ASTM method did not statistically distinguish between AL 6010 and AL 7075. Based on the Johnson-Weibull analysis confidence numbers greater than 99 percent, AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median or L(sub 50) lives.

Evaluation of the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Fracture Probability in Composite Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-03-01

for the risk of rupture for a unidirectionally laminat - ed composite subjected to pure bending. (5D This equation can be simplified further by use of...C EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS. THESIS / AFIT/GAE...EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WE1BULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS THESIS Presented

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

Performance of mixed RF/FSO systems in exponentiated Weibull distributed channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jing; Zhao, Shang-Hong; Zhao, Wei-Hu; Liu, Yun; Li, Xuan

2017-12-01

This paper presented the performances of asymmetric mixed radio frequency (RF)/free-space optical (FSO) system with the amplify-and-forward relaying scheme. The RF channel undergoes Nakagami- m channel, and the Exponentiated Weibull distribution is adopted for the FSO component. The mathematical formulas for cumulative distribution function (CDF), probability density function (PDF) and moment generating function (MGF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are achieved. According to the end-to-end statistical characteristics, the new analytical expressions of outage probability are obtained. Under various modulation techniques, we derive the average bit-error-rate (BER) based on the Meijer's G function. The evaluation and simulation are provided for the system performance, and the aperture average effect is discussed as well.

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2013-01-01

Leonard Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Johnson's methodology is dependent on limited combinations of test parameters (Weibull slope, mean life ratio, and degrees of freedom) and a set of complex mathematical equations. In this report, a simplified algebraic equation for confidence numbers is derived based on the original work of Johnson. The confidence numbers calculated with this equation are compared to those obtained graphically by Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers at the 99 percent level deviate less than 1 percent from those of Johnson. At a 90 percent confidence level, the calculated values differ between +2 and 4 percent. The simplified equation is used to rank the experimental lives of three aluminum alloys (AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075), each tested at three stress levels in rotating beam fatigue, analyzed using the Johnson- Weibull method, and compared to the ASTM Standard (E739 91) method of comparison. The ASTM Standard did not statistically distinguish between AL 6061 and AL 7075. However, it is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers using the Johnson- Weibull analysis. AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median, or L(sub 50), lives

Weibull-Based Design Methodology for Rotating Aircraft Engine Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry

2002-01-01

The NASA Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)-Engine) is used as the basis of a Weibull-based life and reliability analysis. Each component's life and thus the engine's life is defined by high-cycle fatigue (HCF) or low-cycle fatigue (LCF). Knowing the cumulative life distribution of each of the components making up the engine as represented by a Weibull slope is a prerequisite to predicting the life and reliability of the entire engine. As the engine Weibull slope increases, the predicted lives decrease. The predicted engine lives L(sub 5) (95 % probability of survival) of approximately 17,000 and 32,000 hr do correlate with current engine maintenance practices without and with refurbishment. respectively. The individual high pressure turbine (HPT) blade lives necessary to obtain a blade system life L(sub 0.1) (99.9 % probability of survival) of 9000 hr for Weibull slopes of 3, 6 and 9, are 47,391 and 20,652 and 15,658 hr, respectively. For a design life of the HPT disks having probable points of failure equal to or greater than 36,000 hr at a probability of survival of 99.9 %, the predicted disk system life L(sub 0.1) can vary from 9,408 to 24,911 hr.

Integrating GLL-Weibull Distribution Within a Bayesian Framework for Life Prediction of Shape Memory Alloy Spring Undergoing Thermo-mechanical Fatigue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Pradeep; Nath, Tameshwer; Palani, I. A.; Lad, Bhupesh K.

2018-06-01

The present paper tackles an important but unmapped problem of the reliability estimations of smart materials. First, an experimental setup is developed for accelerated life testing of the shape memory alloy (SMA) springs. Generalized log-linear Weibull (GLL-Weibull) distribution-based novel approach is then developed for SMA spring life estimation. Applied stimulus (voltage), elongation and cycles of operation are used as inputs for the life prediction model. The values of the parameter coefficients of the model provide better interpretability compared to artificial intelligence based life prediction approaches. In addition, the model also considers the effect of operating conditions, making it generic for a range of the operating conditions. Moreover, a Bayesian framework is used to continuously update the prediction with the actual degradation value of the springs, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the data and improving the prediction accuracy. In addition, the deterioration of material with number of cycles is also investigated using thermogravimetric analysis and scanning electron microscopy.

Bayesian Weibull tree models for survival analysis of clinico-genomic data

PubMed Central

Clarke, Jennifer; West, Mike

2008-01-01

An important goal of research involving gene expression data for outcome prediction is to establish the ability of genomic data to define clinically relevant risk factors. Recent studies have demonstrated that microarray data can successfully cluster patients into low- and high-risk categories. However, the need exists for models which examine how genomic predictors interact with existing clinical factors and provide personalized outcome predictions. We have developed clinico-genomic tree models for survival outcomes which use recursive partitioning to subdivide the current data set into homogeneous subgroups of patients, each with a specific Weibull survival distribution. These trees can provide personalized predictive distributions of the probability of survival for individuals of interest. Our strategy is to fit multiple models; within each model we adopt a prior on the Weibull scale parameter and update this prior via Empirical Bayes whenever the sample is split at a given node. The decision to split is based on a Bayes factor criterion. The resulting trees are weighted according to their relative likelihood values and predictions are made by averaging over models. In a pilot study of survival in advanced stage ovarian cancer we demonstrate that clinical and genomic data are complementary sources of information relevant to survival, and we use the exploratory nature of the trees to identify potential genomic biomarkers worthy of further study. PMID:18618012

On Weibull's Spectrum of Nonrelativistic Energetic Particles at IP Shocks: Observations and Theoretical Interpretation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pallocchia, G.; Laurenza, M.; Consolini, G.

2017-03-10

Some interplanetary shocks are associated with short-term and sharp particle flux enhancements near the shock front. Such intensity enhancements, known as shock-spike events (SSEs), represent a class of relatively energetic phenomena as they may extend to energies of some tens of MeV or even beyond. Here we present an SSE case study in order to shed light on the nature of the particle acceleration involved in this kind of event. Our observations refer to an SSE registered on 2011 October 3 at 22:23 UT, by STEREO B instrumentation when, at a heliocentric distance of 1.08 au, the spacecraft was sweptmore » by a perpendicular shock moving away from the Sun. The main finding from the data analysis is that a Weibull distribution represents a good fitting function to the measured particle spectrum over the energy range from 0.1 to 30 MeV. To interpret such an observational result, we provide a theoretical derivation of the Weibull spectrum in the framework of the acceleration by “killed” stochastic processes exhibiting power-law growth in time of the velocity expectation, such as the classical Fermi process. We find an overall coherence between the experimental values of the Weibull spectrum parameters and their physical meaning within the above scenario. Hence, our approach based on the Weibull distribution proves to be useful for understanding SSEs. With regard to the present event, we also provide an alternative explanation of the Weibull spectrum in terms of shock-surfing acceleration.« less

A Weibull characterization for tensile fracture of multicomponent brittle fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrows, R. G.

1977-01-01

A statistical characterization for multicomponent brittle fibers in presented. The method, which is an extension of usual Weibull distribution procedures, statistically considers the components making up a fiber (e.g., substrate, sheath, and surface) as separate entities and taken together as in a fiber. Tensile data for silicon carbide fiber and for an experimental carbon-boron alloy fiber are evaluated in terms of the proposed multicomponent Weibull characterization.

Weibull analysis of fracture test data on bovine cortical bone: influence of orientation.

PubMed

Khandaker, Morshed; Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen

2013-01-01

The fracture toughness, K IC, of a cortical bone has been experimentally determined by several researchers. The variation of K IC values occurs from the variation of specimen orientation, shape, and size during the experiment. The fracture toughness of a cortical bone is governed by the severest flaw and, hence, may be analyzed using Weibull statistics. To the best of the authors' knowledge, however, no studies of this aspect have been published. The motivation of the study is the evaluation of Weibull parameters at the circumferential-longitudinal (CL) and longitudinal-circumferential (LC) directions. We hypothesized that Weibull parameters vary depending on the bone microstructure. In the present work, a two-parameter Weibull statistical model was applied to calculate the plane-strain fracture toughness of bovine femoral cortical bone obtained using specimens extracted from CL and LC directions of the bone. It was found that the Weibull modulus of fracture toughness was larger for CL specimens compared to LC specimens, but the opposite trend was seen for the characteristic fracture toughness. The reason for these trends is the microstructural and extrinsic toughening mechanism differences between CL and LC directions bone. The Weibull parameters found in this study can be applied to develop a damage-mechanics model for bone.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters, Batdorf flaw density constants and related statistical quantities using PC-CARES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szatmary, Steven A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1990-01-01

This manual describes the operation and theory of the PC-CARES (Personal Computer-Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program for the IBM PC and compatibles running PC-DOS/MS-DOR OR IBM/MS-OS/2 (version 1.1 or higher) operating systems. The primary purpose of this code is to estimate Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities. Included in the manual is the description of the calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. The methods for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull line, as well as the techniques for calculating the Batdorf flaw-density constants are also described.

Reliability Evaluation Method with Weibull Distribution for Temporary Overvoltages of Substation Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okabe, Shigemitsu; Tsuboi, Toshihiro; Takami, Jun

The power-frequency withstand voltage tests are regulated on electric power equipment in JEC by evaluating the lifetime reliability with a Weibull distribution function. The evaluation method is still controversial in terms of consideration of a plural number of faults and some alternative methods were proposed on this subject. The present paper first discusses the physical meanings of the various kinds of evaluating methods and secondly examines their effects on the power-frequency withstand voltage tests. Further, an appropriate method is investigated for an oil-filled transformer and a gas insulated switchgear with taking notice of dielectric breakdown or partial discharge mechanism under various insulating material and structure conditions and the tentative conclusion gives that the conventional method would be most pertinent under the present conditions.

Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, W. E.

2015-12-01

Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially

Categorical Data Analysis Using a Skewed Weibull Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Renault; Sinha, Debajyoti; Dey, Dipak; Polpo, Adriano

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and complementary log-log) can be obtained as limiting cases. We further compare the proposed model with some other asymmetrical models. The Bayesian as well as frequentist estimation procedures for binomial and multinomial data responses are presented in details. The analysis of two data sets to show the efficiency of the proposed model is performed.

A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

PubMed

Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

2015-09-01

Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Probability density function characterization for aggregated large-scale wind power based on Weibull mixtures

DOE PAGES

Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio; Bueso, Maria C.; Kessler, Mathieu; ...

2016-02-02

Here, the Weibull probability distribution has been widely applied to characterize wind speeds for wind energy resources. Wind power generation modeling is different, however, due in particular to power curve limitations, wind turbine control methods, and transmission system operation requirements. These differences are even greater for aggregated wind power generation in power systems with high wind penetration. Consequently, models based on one-Weibull component can provide poor characterizations for aggregated wind power generation. With this aim, the present paper focuses on discussing Weibull mixtures to characterize the probability density function (PDF) for aggregated wind power generation. PDFs of wind power datamore » are firstly classified attending to hourly and seasonal patterns. The selection of the number of components in the mixture is analyzed through two well-known different criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Finally, the optimal number of Weibull components for maximum likelihood is explored for the defined patterns, including the estimated weight, scale, and shape parameters. Results show that multi-Weibull models are more suitable to characterize aggregated wind power data due to the impact of distributed generation, variety of wind speed values and wind power curtailment.« less

Weibull crack density coefficient for polydimensional stress states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

A structural ceramic analysis and reliability evaluation code has recently been developed encompassing volume and surface flaw induced fracture, modeled by the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. A segment of the software involves computing the Weibull polydimensional stress state crack density coefficient from uniaxial stress experimental fracture data. The relationship of the polydimensional stress coefficient to the uniaxial stress coefficient is derived for a shear-insensitive material with a random surface flaw population.

Kinetic Analysis of Isothermal Decomposition Process of Sodium Bicarbonate Using the Weibull Probability Function—Estimation of Density Distribution Functions of the Apparent Activation Energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janković, Bojan

2009-10-01

The decomposition process of sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) has been studied by thermogravimetry in isothermal conditions at four different operating temperatures (380 K, 400 K, 420 K, and 440 K). It was found that the experimental integral and differential conversion curves at the different operating temperatures can be successfully described by the isothermal Weibull distribution function with a unique value of the shape parameter ( β = 1.07). It was also established that the Weibull distribution parameters ( β and η) show independent behavior on the operating temperature. Using the integral and differential (Friedman) isoconversional methods, in the conversion (α) range of 0.20 ≤ α ≤ 0.80, the apparent activation energy ( E a ) value was approximately constant ( E a, int = 95.2 kJmol-1 and E a, diff = 96.6 kJmol-1, respectively). The values of E a calculated by both isoconversional methods are in good agreement with the value of E a evaluated from the Arrhenius equation (94.3 kJmol-1), which was expressed through the scale distribution parameter ( η). The Málek isothermal procedure was used for estimation of the kinetic model for the investigated decomposition process. It was found that the two-parameter Šesták-Berggren (SB) autocatalytic model best describes the NaHCO3 decomposition process with the conversion function f(α) = α0.18(1-α)1.19. It was also concluded that the calculated density distribution functions of the apparent activation energies ( ddfE a ’s) are not dependent on the operating temperature, which exhibit the highly symmetrical behavior (shape factor = 1.00). The obtained isothermal decomposition results were compared with corresponding results of the nonisothermal decomposition process of NaHCO3.

Aerospace Applications of Weibull and Monte Carlo Simulation with Importance Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1998-01-01

Recent developments in reliability modeling and computer technology have made it practical to use the Weibull time to failure distribution to model the system reliability of complex fault-tolerant computer-based systems. These system models are becoming increasingly popular in space systems applications as a result of mounting data that support the decreasing Weibull failure distribution and the expectation of increased system reliability. This presentation introduces the new reliability modeling developments and demonstrates their application to a novel space system application. The application is a proposed guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system for use in a long duration manned spacecraft for a possible Mars mission. Comparisons to the constant failure rate model are presented and the ramifications of doing so are discussed.

An EOQ model for weibull distribution deterioration with time-dependent cubic demand and backlogging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model with weibull deterioration and time dependent cubic demand rate where holding costs as a linear function of time. Shortages are allowed in the inventory system are partially and fully backlogging. The objective of this model is to minimize the total inventory cost by using the optimal order quantity and the cycle length. The proposed model is illustrated by numerical examples and the sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effect of changes in parameters on the optimum solutions.

Analysis of Weibull Grading Test for Solid Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Weibull grading test is a powerful technique that allows selection and reliability rating of solid tantalum capacitors for military and space applications. However, inaccuracies in the existing method and non-adequate acceleration factors can result in significant, up to three orders of magnitude, errors in the calculated failure rate of capacitors. This paper analyzes deficiencies of the existing technique and recommends more accurate method of calculations. A physical model presenting failures of tantalum capacitors as time-dependent-dielectric-breakdown is used to determine voltage and temperature acceleration factors and select adequate Weibull grading test conditions. This, model is verified by highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperature and voltage conditions for three types of solid chip tantalum capacitors. It is shown that parameters of the model and acceleration factors can be calculated using a general log-linear relationship for the characteristic life with two stress levels.

Weibull mixture regression for marginal inference in zero-heavy continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Gebregziabher, Mulugeta; Voronca, Delia; Teklehaimanot, Abeba; Santa Ana, Elizabeth J

2017-06-01

Continuous outcomes with preponderance of zero values are ubiquitous in data that arise from biomedical studies, for example studies of addictive disorders. This is known to lead to violation of standard assumptions in parametric inference and enhances the risk of misleading conclusions unless managed properly. Two-part models are commonly used to deal with this problem. However, standard two-part models have limitations with respect to obtaining parameter estimates that have marginal interpretation of covariate effects which are important in many biomedical applications. Recently marginalized two-part models are proposed but their development is limited to log-normal and log-skew-normal distributions. Thus, in this paper, we propose a finite mixture approach, with Weibull mixture regression as a special case, to deal with the problem. We use extensive simulation study to assess the performance of the proposed model in finite samples and to make comparisons with other family of models via statistical information and mean squared error criteria. We demonstrate its application on real data from a randomized controlled trial of addictive disorders. Our results show that a two-component Weibull mixture model is preferred for modeling zero-heavy continuous data when the non-zero part are simulated from Weibull or similar distributions such as Gamma or truncated Gauss.

Mixture distributions of wind speed in the UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J.; Ouarda, T.; Lee, T. S.

2013-12-01

Wind speed probability distribution is commonly used to estimate potential wind energy. The 2-parameter Weibull distribution has been most widely used to characterize the distribution of wind speed. However, it is unable to properly model wind speed regimes when wind speed distribution presents bimodal and kurtotic shapes. Several studies have concluded that the Weibull distribution should not be used for frequency analysis of wind speed without investigation of wind speed distribution. Due to these mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed data, the application of mixture distributions should be further investigated in the frequency analysis of wind speed. A number of studies have investigated the potential wind energy in different parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed were detected from some of these studies. Nevertheless, mixture distributions have not been employed for wind speed modeling in the Arabian Peninsula. In order to improve our understanding of wind energy potential in Arabian Peninsula, mixture distributions should be tested for the frequency analysis of wind speed. The aim of the current study is to assess the suitability of mixture distributions for the frequency analysis of wind speed in the UAE. Hourly mean wind speed data at 10-m height from 7 stations were used in the current study. The Weibull and Kappa distributions were employed as representatives of the conventional non-mixture distributions. 10 mixture distributions are used and constructed by mixing four probability distributions such as Normal, Gamma, Weibull and Extreme value type-one (EV-1) distributions. Three parameter estimation methods such as Expectation Maximization algorithm, Least Squares method and Meta-Heuristic Maximum Likelihood (MHML) method were employed to estimate the parameters of the mixture distributions. In order to compare the goodness-of-fit of tested distributions and parameter estimation methods for

On the q-type distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadarajah, Saralees; Kotz, Samuel

2007-04-01

Various q-type distributions have appeared in the physics literature in the recent years, see e.g. L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236 (1997) 52-57. It is pointed out in the paper that many of these are the same as or particular cases of what has been known in the statistics literature. Several of these statistical distributions are discussed and references provided. We feel that this paper could be of assistance for modeling problems of the type considered by L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236

The Weibull probabilities analysis on the single kenaf fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, I.; Sarip, S.; Bani, N. A.; Ibrahim, M. H.; Hassan, M. Z.

2018-05-01

Kenaf fiber has a great potential to be replaced with the synthetic composite due to their advantages such as environmentally friendly and outstanding performance. However, the main issue of this natural fiber that to be used in structural composite is inconsistency of their mechanical properties. Here, the influence of the gage length on the mechanical properties of single kenaf fiber was evaluated. This fiber was tested using the Universal testing machine at a loading rate of 1mm per min following ASTM D3822 standard. In this study, the different length of treated fiber including 20, 30 and 40mm were being tested. Following, Weibull probabilities analysis was used to characterize the tensile strength and Young modulus of kenaf fiber. The predicted average tensile strength from this approach is in good agreement with experimental results for the obtained parameter.

An evaluation of percentile and maximum likelihood estimators of weibull paremeters

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Tommy R. Dell

1985-01-01

Two methods of estimating the three-parameter Weibull distribution were evaluated by computer simulation and field data comparison. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLB) with bias correction were calculated with the computer routine FITTER (Bailey 1974); percentile estimators (PCT) were those proposed by Zanakis (1979). The MLB estimators had superior smaller bias and...

pT spectra in pp and AA collisions at RHIC and LHC energies using the Tsallis-Weibull approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Sadhana; Mahapatra, D. P.

2018-04-01

The Tsallis q -statistics have been incorporated in the Weibull model of particle production, in the form of q-Weibull distribution, to describe the transverse momentum (pT) distribution of charged hadrons at mid-rapidity, measured at RHIC and LHC energies. The q-Weibull distribution is found to describe the observed pT distributions over all ranges of measured pT. Below 2.2 GeV/c, while going from peripheral to central collisions, the parameter q is found to decrease systematically towards unity, indicating an evolution from a non-equilibrated system in peripheral collisions, towards a more thermalized system in central collisions. However, the trend is reversed in the all inclusive pT regime. This can be attributed to an increase in relative contribution of hard pQCD processes in central collisions. The λ-parameter is found to be associated with the mean pT or the collective expansion velocity of the produced hadrons, which shows an expected increase with centrality of collisions. The k parameter is observed to increase with the onset of hard QCD scatterings, initial fluctuations, and other processes leading to non-equilibrium conditions.

USE OF WEIBULL FUNCTION FOR NON-LINEAR ANALYSIS OF EFFECTS OF LOW LEVELS OF SIMULATED HERBICIDE DRIFT ON PLANTS

EPA Science Inventory

We compared two regression models, which are based on the Weibull and probit functions, for the analysis of pesticide toxicity data from laboratory studies on Illinois crop and native plant species. Both mathematical models are continuous, differentiable, strictly positive, and...

Determining the parameters of Weibull function to estimate the wind power potential in conditions of limited source meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fetisova, Yu. A.; Ermolenko, B. V.; Ermolenko, G. V.; Kiseleva, S. V.

2017-04-01

We studied the information basis for the assessment of wind power potential on the territory of Russia. We described the methodology to determine the parameters of the Weibull function, which reflects the density of distribution of probabilities of wind flow speeds at a defined basic height above the surface of the earth using the available data on the average speed at this height and its repetition by gradations. The application of the least square method for determining these parameters, unlike the use of graphical methods, allows performing a statistical assessment of the results of approximation of empirical histograms by the Weibull formula. On the basis of the computer-aided analysis of the statistical data, it was shown that, at a fixed point where the wind speed changes at different heights, the range of parameter variation of the Weibull distribution curve is relatively small, the sensitivity of the function to parameter changes is quite low, and the influence of changes on the shape of speed distribution curves is negligible. Taking this into consideration, we proposed and mathematically verified the methodology of determining the speed parameters of the Weibull function at other heights using the parameter computations for this function at a basic height, which is known or defined by the average speed of wind flow, or the roughness coefficient of the geological substrate. We gave examples of practical application of the suggested methodology in the development of the Atlas of Renewable Energy Resources in Russia in conditions of deficiency of source meteorological data. The proposed methodology, to some extent, may solve the problem related to the lack of information on the vertical profile of repeatability of the wind flow speeds in the presence of a wide assortment of wind turbines with different ranges of wind-wheel axis heights and various performance characteristics in the global market; as a result, this methodology can become a powerful tool for

The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

2009-07-01

Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting

Evaluation of bond strength of resin cements using different general-purpose statistical software packages for two-parameter Weibull statistics.

PubMed

Roos, Malgorzata; Stawarczyk, Bogna

2012-07-01

This study evaluated and compared Weibull parameters of resin bond strength values using six different general-purpose statistical software packages for two-parameter Weibull distribution. Two-hundred human teeth were randomly divided into 4 groups (n=50), prepared and bonded on dentin according to the manufacturers' instructions using the following resin cements: (i) Variolink (VAN, conventional resin cement), (ii) Panavia21 (PAN, conventional resin cement), (iii) RelyX Unicem (RXU, self-adhesive resin cement) and (iv) G-Cem (GCM, self-adhesive resin cement). Subsequently, all specimens were stored in water for 24h at 37°C. Shear bond strength was measured and the data were analyzed using Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit (MINITAB 16) and two-parameter Weibull statistics with the following statistical software packages: Excel 2011, SPSS 19, MINITAB 16, R 2.12.1, SAS 9.1.3. and STATA 11.2 (p≤0.05). Additionally, the three-parameter Weibull was fitted using MNITAB 16. Two-parameter Weibull calculated with MINITAB and STATA can be compared using an omnibus test and using 95% CI. In SAS only 95% CI were directly obtained from the output. R provided no estimates of 95% CI. In both SAS and R the global comparison of the characteristic bond strength among groups is provided by means of the Weibull regression. EXCEL and SPSS provided no default information about 95% CI and no significance test for the comparison of Weibull parameters among the groups. In summary, conventional resin cement VAN showed the highest Weibull modulus and characteristic bond strength. There are discrepancies in the Weibull statistics depending on the software package and the estimation method. The information content in the default output provided by the software packages differs to very high extent. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

Lifetime assessment by intermittent inspection under the mixture Weibull power law model with application to XLPE cables.

PubMed

Hirose, H

1997-01-01

This paper proposes a new treatment for electrical insulation degradation. Some types of insulation which have been used under various circumstances are considered to degrade at various rates in accordance with their stress circumstances. The cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulated cables inspected by major Japanese electric companies clearly indicate such phenomena. By assuming that the inspected specimen is sampled from one of the clustered groups, a mixed degradation model can be constructed. Since the degradation of the insulation under common circumstances is considered to follow a Weibull distribution, a mixture model and a Weibull power law can be combined. This is called The mixture Weibull power law model. By using the maximum likelihood estimation for the newly proposed model to Japanese 22 and 33 kV insulation class cables, they are clustered into a certain number of groups by using the AIC and the generalized likelihood ratio test method. The reliability of the cables at specified years are assessed.

Least Squares Best Fit Method for the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution: Analysis of Tensile and Bend Specimens with Volume or Surface Flaw Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard

1996-01-01

Material characterization parameters obtained from naturally flawed specimens are necessary for reliability evaluation of non-deterministic advanced ceramic structural components. The least squares best fit method is applied to the three parameter uniaxial Weibull model to obtain the material parameters from experimental tests on volume or surface flawed specimens subjected to pure tension, pure bending, four point or three point loading. Several illustrative example problems are provided.

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1989-01-01

A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning

PubMed Central

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-01-01

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images’ spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines. PMID:27367703

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning.

PubMed

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-06-29

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images' spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines.

Performance analysis for mixed FSO/RF Nakagami-m and Exponentiated Weibull dual-hop airborne systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Zhao; Shang-hong, Zhao; Wei-hu, Zhao; Ke-fan, Chen

2017-06-01

In this paper, the performances of mixed free-space optical (FSO)/radio frequency (RF) systems are presented based on the decode-and-forward relaying. The Exponentiated Weibull fading channel with pointing error effect is adopted for the atmospheric fluctuation of FSO channel and the RF link undergoes the Nakagami-m fading. We derived the analytical expression for cumulative distribution function (CDF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The novel mathematical presentations of outage probability and average bit-error-rate (BER) are developed based on the Meijer's G function. The analytical results show an accurately match to the Monte-Carlo simulation results. The outage and BER performance for the mixed system by decode-and-forward relay are investigated considering atmospheric turbulence and pointing error condition. The effect of aperture averaging is evaluated in all atmospheric turbulence conditions as well.

Testing homogeneity in Weibull-regression models.

PubMed

Bolfarine, Heleno; Valença, Dione M

2005-10-01

In survival studies with families or geographical units it may be of interest testing whether such groups are homogeneous for given explanatory variables. In this paper we consider score type tests for group homogeneity based on a mixing model in which the group effect is modelled as a random variable. As opposed to hazard-based frailty models, this model presents survival times that conditioned on the random effect, has an accelerated failure time representation. The test statistics requires only estimation of the conventional regression model without the random effect and does not require specifying the distribution of the random effect. The tests are derived for a Weibull regression model and in the uncensored situation, a closed form is obtained for the test statistic. A simulation study is used for comparing the power of the tests. The proposed tests are applied to real data sets with censored data.

Small Sample Properties of Asymptotically Efficient Estimators of the Parameters of a Bivariate Gaussian–Weibull Distribution

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

2012-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity or MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture or MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two or three parameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of...

Competing risk models in reliability systems, an exponential distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, I.

2018-03-01

The exponential distribution is the most widely used reliability analysis. This distribution is very suitable for representing the lengths of life of many cases and is available in a simple statistical form. The characteristic of this distribution is a constant hazard rate. The exponential distribution is the lower rank of the Weibull distributions. In this paper our effort is to introduce the basic notions that constitute an exponential competing risks model in reliability analysis using Bayesian analysis approach and presenting their analytic methods. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure. A non-informative prior distribution is used in our analysis. This model describes the likelihood function and follows with the description of the posterior function and the estimations of the point, interval, hazard function, and reliability. The net probability of failure if only one specific risk is present, crude probability of failure due to a specific risk in the presence of other causes, and partial crude probabilities are also included.

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, J. T.

1990-01-01

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

On the Distribution of Earthquake Interevent Times and the Impact of Spatial Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristopulos, Dionissios

2013-04-01

The distribution of earthquake interevent times is a subject that has attracted much attention in the statistical physics literature [1-3]. A recent paper proposes that the distribution of earthquake interevent times follows from the the interplay of the crustal strength distribution and the loading function (stress versus time) of the Earth's crust locally [4]. It was also shown that the Weibull distribution describes earthquake interevent times provided that the crustal strength also follows the Weibull distribution and that the loading function follows a power-law during the loading cycle. I will discuss the implications of this work and will present supporting evidence based on the analysis of data from seismic catalogs. I will also discuss the theoretical evidence in support of the Weibull distribution based on models of statistical physics [5]. Since other-than-Weibull interevent times distributions are not excluded in [4], I will illustrate the use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in order to determine which probability distributions are not rejected by the data. Finally, we propose a modification of the Weibull distribution if the size of the system under investigation (i.e., the area over which the earthquake activity occurs) is finite with respect to a critical link size. keywords: hypothesis testing, modified Weibull, hazard rate, finite size References [1] Corral, A., 2004. Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 9210) art. no. 108501. [2] Saichev, A., Sornette, D. 2007. Theory of earthquake recurrence times, J. Geophys. Res., Ser. B 112, B04313/1-26. [3] Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G., 2009. Origin and nonuniversality of the earthquake interevent time distribution Phys. Rev. Lett., 102 (16), art. no. 168501. [4] Hristopulos, D.T., 2003. Spartan Gibbs random field models for geostatistical applications, SIAM Jour. Sci. Comput., 24, 2125-2162. [5] I. Eliazar and J. Klafter, 2006

A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-11-01

A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a bivariate Gaussian-Weibull distribution from machine stress-rated data

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; David E. Kretschmann; James W. Evans

2016-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity, MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture, MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two- or threeparameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of wood...

The effect of wall thickness distribution on mechanical reliability and strength in unidirectional porous ceramics.

PubMed

Seuba, Jordi; Deville, Sylvain; Guizard, Christian; Stevenson, Adam J

2016-01-01

Macroporous ceramics exhibit an intrinsic strength variability caused by the random distribution of defects in their structure. However, the precise role of microstructural features, other than pore volume, on reliability is still unknown. Here, we analyze the applicability of the Weibull analysis to unidirectional macroporous yttria-stabilized-zirconia (YSZ) prepared by ice-templating. First, we performed crush tests on samples with controlled microstructural features with the loading direction parallel to the porosity. The compressive strength data were fitted using two different fitting techniques, ordinary least squares and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, to evaluate whether Weibull statistics are an adequate descriptor of the strength distribution. The statistical descriptors indicated that the strength data are well described by the Weibull statistical approach, for both fitting methods used. Furthermore, we assess the effect of different microstructural features (volume, size, densification of the walls, and morphology) on Weibull modulus and strength. We found that the key microstructural parameter controlling reliability is wall thickness. In contrast, pore volume is the main parameter controlling the strength. The highest Weibull modulus ([Formula: see text]) and mean strength (198.2 MPa) were obtained for the samples with the smallest and narrowest wall thickness distribution (3.1 [Formula: see text]m) and lower pore volume (54.5%).

The effect of wall thickness distribution on mechanical reliability and strength in unidirectional porous ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seuba, Jordi; Deville, Sylvain; Guizard, Christian; Stevenson, Adam J.

2016-01-01

Macroporous ceramics exhibit an intrinsic strength variability caused by the random distribution of defects in their structure. However, the precise role of microstructural features, other than pore volume, on reliability is still unknown. Here, we analyze the applicability of the Weibull analysis to unidirectional macroporous yttria-stabilized-zirconia (YSZ) prepared by ice-templating. First, we performed crush tests on samples with controlled microstructural features with the loading direction parallel to the porosity. The compressive strength data were fitted using two different fitting techniques, ordinary least squares and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, to evaluate whether Weibull statistics are an adequate descriptor of the strength distribution. The statistical descriptors indicated that the strength data are well described by the Weibull statistical approach, for both fitting methods used. Furthermore, we assess the effect of different microstructural features (volume, size, densification of the walls, and morphology) on Weibull modulus and strength. We found that the key microstructural parameter controlling reliability is wall thickness. In contrast, pore volume is the main parameter controlling the strength. The highest Weibull modulus (?) and mean strength (198.2 MPa) were obtained for the samples with the smallest and narrowest wall thickness distribution (3.1 ?m) and lower pore volume (54.5%).

On the gap between an empirical distribution and an exponential distribution of waiting times for price changes in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya

2007-03-01

We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high-frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well approximated by a Weibull distribution rather than an exponential distribution in the non-asymptotic regime. Moreover, we quantitatively evaluate how much an empirical data is far from an exponential distribution using a Weibull fit. Finally, we discuss a transition between a Weibull-law and a power-law in the long time asymptotic regime.

Time-dependent fiber bundles with local load sharing. II. General Weibull fibers.

PubMed

Phoenix, S Leigh; Newman, William I

2009-12-01

Fiber bundle models (FBMs) are useful tools in understanding failure processes in a variety of material systems. While the fibers and load sharing assumptions are easily described, FBM analysis is typically difficult. Monte Carlo methods are also hampered by the severe computational demands of large bundle sizes, which overwhelm just as behavior relevant to real materials starts to emerge. For large size scales, interest continues in idealized FBMs that assume either equal load sharing (ELS) or local load sharing (LLS) among fibers, rules that reflect features of real load redistribution in elastic lattices. The present work focuses on a one-dimensional bundle of N fibers under LLS where life consumption in a fiber follows a power law in its load, with exponent rho , and integrated over time. This life consumption function is further embodied in a functional form resulting in a Weibull distribution for lifetime under constant fiber stress and with Weibull exponent, beta. Thus the failure rate of a fiber depends on its past load history, except for beta=1 . We develop asymptotic results validated by Monte Carlo simulation using a computational algorithm developed in our previous work [Phys. Rev. E 63, 021507 (2001)] that greatly increases the size, N , of treatable bundles (e.g., 10(6) fibers in 10(3) realizations). In particular, our algorithm is O(N ln N) in contrast with former algorithms which were O(N2) making this investigation possible. Regimes are found for (beta,rho) pairs that yield contrasting behavior for large N. For rho>1 and large N, brittle weakest volume behavior emerges in terms of characteristic elements (groupings of fibers) derived from critical cluster formation, and the lifetime eventually goes to zero as N-->infinity , unlike ELS, which yields a finite limiting mean. For 1/2distribution and a

Time-dependent fiber bundles with local load sharing. II. General Weibull fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Newman, William I.

2009-12-01

Fiber bundle models (FBMs) are useful tools in understanding failure processes in a variety of material systems. While the fibers and load sharing assumptions are easily described, FBM analysis is typically difficult. Monte Carlo methods are also hampered by the severe computational demands of large bundle sizes, which overwhelm just as behavior relevant to real materials starts to emerge. For large size scales, interest continues in idealized FBMs that assume either equal load sharing (ELS) or local load sharing (LLS) among fibers, rules that reflect features of real load redistribution in elastic lattices. The present work focuses on a one-dimensional bundle of N fibers under LLS where life consumption in a fiber follows a power law in its load, with exponent ρ , and integrated over time. This life consumption function is further embodied in a functional form resulting in a Weibull distribution for lifetime under constant fiber stress and with Weibull exponent, β . Thus the failure rate of a fiber depends on its past load history, except for β=1 . We develop asymptotic results validated by Monte Carlo simulation using a computational algorithm developed in our previous work [Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81063-651X 63, 021507 (2001)] that greatly increases the size, N , of treatable bundles (e.g., 106 fibers in 103 realizations). In particular, our algorithm is O(NlnN) in contrast with former algorithms which were O(N2) making this investigation possible. Regimes are found for (β,ρ) pairs that yield contrasting behavior for large N . For ρ>1 and large N , brittle weakest volume behavior emerges in terms of characteristic elements (groupings of fibers) derived from critical cluster formation, and the lifetime eventually goes to zero as N→∞ , unlike ELS, which yields a finite limiting mean. For 1/2≤ρ≤1 , however, LLS has remarkably similar behavior to ELS (appearing to be virtually identical for ρ=1 ) with an asymptotic Gaussian lifetime distribution and a

The effect of mis-specification on mean and selection between the Weibull and lognormal models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xiang; Nadarajah, Saralees; Guo, Bo

2018-02-01

The lognormal and Weibull models are commonly used to analyse data. Although selection procedures have been extensively studied, it is possible that the lognormal model could be selected when the true model is Weibull or vice versa. As the mean is important in applications, we focus on the effect of mis-specification on mean. The effect on lognormal mean is first considered if the lognormal sample is wrongly fitted by a Weibull model. The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) and quasi-MLE (QMLE) of lognormal mean are obtained based on lognormal and Weibull models. Then, the impact is evaluated by computing ratio of biases and ratio of mean squared errors (MSEs) between MLE and QMLE. For completeness, the theoretical results are demonstrated by simulation studies. Next, the effect of the reverse mis-specification on Weibull mean is discussed. It is found that the ratio of biases and the ratio of MSEs are independent of the location and scale parameters of the lognormal and Weibull models. The influence could be ignored if some special conditions hold. Finally, a model selection method is proposed by comparing ratios concerning biases and MSEs. We also present a published data to illustrate the study in this paper.

The effect of core material, veneering porcelain, and fabrication technique on the biaxial flexural strength and weibull analysis of selected dental ceramics.

PubMed

Lin, Wei-Shao; Ercoli, Carlo; Feng, Changyong; Morton, Dean

2012-07-01

The objective of this study was to compare the effect of veneering porcelain (monolithic or bilayer specimens) and core fabrication technique (heat-pressed or CAD/CAM) on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus of leucite-reinforced and lithium-disilicate glass ceramics. In addition, the effect of veneering technique (heat-pressed or powder/liquid layering) for zirconia ceramics on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus was studied. Five ceramic core materials (IPS Empress Esthetic, IPS Empress CAD, IPS e.max Press, IPS e.max CAD, IPS e.max ZirCAD) and three corresponding veneering porcelains (IPS Empress Esthetic Veneer, IPS e.max Ceram, IPS e.max ZirPress) were selected for this study. Each core material group contained three subgroups based on the core material thickness and the presence of corresponding veneering porcelain as follows: 1.5 mm core material only (subgroup 1.5C), 0.8 mm core material only (subgroup 0.8C), and 1.5 mm core/veneer group: 0.8 mm core with 0.7 mm corresponding veneering porcelain with a powder/liquid layering technique (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VL). The ZirCAD group had one additional 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroup with 0.7 mm heat-pressed veneering porcelain (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP). The biaxial flexural strengths were compared for each subgroup (n = 10) according to ISO standard 6872:2008 with ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc multiple comparison test (p≤ 0.05). The reliability of strength was analyzed with the Weibull distribution. For all core materials, the 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroups (0.8C-0.7VL, 0.8C-0.7VP) had significantly lower mean biaxial flexural strengths (p < 0.0001) than the other two subgroups (subgroups 1.5C and 0.8C). For the ZirCAD group, the 0.8C-0.7VL subgroup had significantly lower flexural strength (p= 0.004) than subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP. Nonetheless, both veneered ZirCAD groups showed greater flexural strength than the monolithic Empress and e.max groups, regardless of core thickness and fabrication techniques

Comparison of Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox in the Survival Analysis Of Breast Cancer Patients in Rafsanjan.

PubMed

Hoseini, Mina; Bahrampour, Abbas; Mirzaee, Moghaddameh

2017-02-16

Breast cancer is the most common cancer after lung cancer and the second cause of death. In this study we compared Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox regression on the survival of breast cancer. A cohort study. The current study retrospective cohort study was conducted on 140 patients referred to Ali Ibn Abitaleb Hospital, Rafsanjan southeastern Iran from 2001 to 2015 suffering from breast cancer. We determined and analyzed the effective survival causes by different models using STATA14. According to AIC, log-normal model was more consistent than Weibull. In the multivariable Lognormal model, the effective factors like smoking, second -hand smoking, drinking herbal tea and the last breast-feeding period were included. In addition, using Cox regression factors of significant were the disease grade, size of tumor and its metastasis (p-value<0.05). As Rafsanjan is surrounded by pistachio orchards and pesticides applied by farmers, people of this city are exposed to agricultural pesticides and its harmful consequences. The effect of the pesticide on breast cancer was studied and the results showed that the effect of pesticides on breast cancer was not in agreement with the models used in this study. Based on different methods for survival analysis, researchers can decide how they can reach a better conclusion. This comparison indicates the result of semi-parametric Cox method is closer to clinical experiences evidences.

Results of the Verification of the Statistical Distribution Model of Microseismicity Emission Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cianciara, Aleksander

2016-09-01

The paper presents the results of research aimed at verifying the hypothesis that the Weibull distribution is an appropriate statistical distribution model of microseismicity emission characteristics, namely: energy of phenomena and inter-event time. It is understood that the emission under consideration is induced by the natural rock mass fracturing. Because the recorded emission contain noise, therefore, it is subjected to an appropriate filtering. The study has been conducted using the method of statistical verification of null hypothesis that the Weibull distribution fits the empirical cumulative distribution function. As the model describing the cumulative distribution function is given in an analytical form, its verification may be performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Interpretations by means of probabilistic methods require specifying the correct model describing the statistical distribution of data. Because in these methods measurement data are not used directly, but their statistical distributions, e.g., in the method based on the hazard analysis, or in that that uses maximum value statistics.

Distributions of Autocorrelated First-Order Kinetic Outcomes: Illness Severity

PubMed Central

Englehardt, James D.

2015-01-01

Many complex systems produce outcomes having recurring, power law-like distributions over wide ranges. However, the form necessarily breaks down at extremes, whereas the Weibull distribution has been demonstrated over the full observed range. Here the Weibull distribution is derived as the asymptotic distribution of generalized first-order kinetic processes, with convergence driven by autocorrelation, and entropy maximization subject to finite positive mean, of the incremental compounding rates. Process increments represent multiplicative causes. In particular, illness severities are modeled as such, occurring in proportion to products of, e.g., chronic toxicant fractions passed by organs along a pathway, or rates of interacting oncogenic mutations. The Weibull form is also argued theoretically and by simulation to be robust to the onset of saturation kinetics. The Weibull exponential parameter is shown to indicate the number and widths of the first-order compounding increments, the extent of rate autocorrelation, and the degree to which process increments are distributed exponential. In contrast with the Gaussian result in linear independent systems, the form is driven not by independence and multiplicity of process increments, but by increment autocorrelation and entropy. In some physical systems the form may be attracting, due to multiplicative evolution of outcome magnitudes towards extreme values potentially much larger and smaller than control mechanisms can contain. The Weibull distribution is demonstrated in preference to the lognormal and Pareto I for illness severities versus (a) toxicokinetic models, (b) biologically-based network models, (c) scholastic and psychological test score data for children with prenatal mercury exposure, and (d) time-to-tumor data of the ED01 study. PMID:26061263

Average BER of subcarrier intensity modulated free space optical systems over the exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Zhang, Lu; Guo, Lixin; Huang, Feng; Shang, Tao; Wang, Ranran; Yang, Yintang

2014-08-25

The average bit error rate (BER) for binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation in free-space optical (FSO) links over turbulence atmosphere modeled by the exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution is investigated in detail. The effects of aperture averaging on the average BERs for BPSK modulation under weak-to-strong turbulence conditions are studied. The average BERs of EW distribution are compared with Lognormal (LN) and Gamma-Gamma (GG) distributions in weak and strong turbulence atmosphere, respectively. The outage probability is also obtained for different turbulence strengths and receiver aperture sizes. The analytical results deduced by the generalized Gauss-Laguerre quadrature rule are verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. This work is helpful for the design of receivers for FSO communication systems.

Weibull models of fracture strengths and fatigue behavior of dental resins in flexure and shear.

PubMed

Baran, G R; McCool, J I; Paul, D; Boberick, K; Wunder, S

1998-01-01

In estimating lifetimes of dental restorative materials, it is useful to have available data on the fatigue behavior of these materials. Current efforts at estimation include several untested assumptions related to the equivalence of flaw distributions sampled by shear, tensile, and compressive stresses. Environmental influences on material properties are not accounted for, and it is unclear if fatigue limits exist. In this study, the shear and flexural strengths of three resins used as matrices in dental restorative composite materials were characterized by Weibull parameters. It was found that shear strengths were lower than flexural strengths, liquid sorption had a profound effect on characteristic strengths, and the Weibull shape parameter obtained from shear data differed for some materials from that obtained in flexure. In shear and flexural fatigue, a power law relationship applied for up to 250,000 cycles; no fatigue limits were found, and the data thus imply only one flaw population is responsible for failure. Again, liquid sorption adversely affected strength levels in most materials (decreasing shear strengths and flexural strengths by factors of 2-3) and to a greater extent than did the degree of cure or material chemistry.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

A Mixed Kijima Model Using the Weibull-Based Generalized Renewal Processes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Generalized Renewal Processes are useful for approaching the rejuvenation of dynamical systems resulting from planned or unplanned interventions. We present new perspectives for the Generalized Renewal Processes in general and for the Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes in particular. Disregarding from literature, we present a mixed Generalized Renewal Processes approach involving Kijima Type I and II models, allowing one to infer the impact of distinct interventions on the performance of the system under study. The first and second theoretical moments of this model are introduced as well as its maximum likelihood estimation and random sampling approaches. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes model, some real data sets involving improving, stable, and deteriorating systems are used. PMID:26197222

Interpreting the Weibull fitting parameters for diffusion-controlled release data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ignacio, Maxime; Chubynsky, Mykyta V.; Slater, Gary W.

2017-11-01

We examine the diffusion-controlled release of molecules from passive delivery systems using both analytical solutions of the diffusion equation and numerically exact Lattice Monte Carlo data. For very short times, the release process follows a √{ t } power law, typical of diffusion processes, while the long-time asymptotic behavior is exponential. The crossover time between these two regimes is determined by the boundary conditions and initial loading of the system. We show that while the widely used Weibull function provides a reasonable fit (in terms of statistical error), it has two major drawbacks: (i) it does not capture the correct limits and (ii) there is no direct connection between the fitting parameters and the properties of the system. Using a physically motivated interpolating fitting function that correctly includes both time regimes, we are able to predict the values of the Weibull parameters which allows us to propose a physical interpretation.

Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2008-10-01

The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade durations, where the empirical density functions of the normalized intertrade durations of all 23 stocks collapse onto a single curve. The scaling pattern is also observed in the intertrade duration distributions for filled and partially filled trades and in the conditional distributions. The ensemble distributions for all stocks are modeled by the Weibull and the Tsallis q-exponential distributions. Maximum likelihood estimation shows that the Weibull distribution outperforms the q-exponential for not-too-large intertrade durations which account for more than 98.5% of the data. Alternatively, nonlinear least-squares estimation selects the q-exponential as a better model, in which the optimization is conducted on the distance between empirical and theoretical values of the logarithmic probability densities. The distribution of intertrade durations is Weibull followed by a power-law tail with an asymptotic tail exponent close to 3.

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

Corrigendum to ;Assessing tephra total grain-size distribution: Insights from field data analysis; [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 443 (2016) 90-107

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, A.; Pioli, L.; Bonadonna, C.

2017-05-01

The authors found a mistake in the formulation of the distribution named Bi-Weibull distribution reported in the equation (A.2) of the Appendix A. The error affects equation (4) (which is the same as eq. (A.2)) and Table 4 in the original manuscript.

Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

2014-09-01

The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

Application of the Weibull extrapolation to 137Cs geochronology in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan.

PubMed

Lu, Xueqiang

2004-01-01

Considerable doubt surrounds the nature of processes by which 137Cs is deposited in marine sediments, leading to a situation where 137Cs geochronology cannot be always applied suitably. Based on extrapolation with Weibull distribution, the maximum concentration of 137Cs derived from asymptotic values for cumulative specific inventory was used to re-establish 137Cs geochronology, instead of original 137Cs profiles. Corresponding dating results for cores in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan, by means of this new method, are in much closer agreement with those calculated from 210Pb method than the previous method.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2008-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2012-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Statistical models for the distribution of modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture in lumber with implications for reliability calculations

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; Frank C. Owens; David E. Kretschmann; Rubin Shmulsky

2017-01-01

It is common practice to assume that a two-parameter Weibull probability distribution is suitable for modeling lumber properties. Verrill and co-workers demonstrated theoretically and empirically that the modulus of rupture (MOR) distribution of visually graded or machine stress rated (MSR) lumber is not distributed as a Weibull. Instead, the tails of the MOR...

Statistical distribution of mechanical properties for three graphite-epoxy material systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reese, C.; Sorem, J., Jr.

1981-01-01

Graphite-epoxy composites are playing an increasing role as viable alternative materials in structural applications necessitating thorough investigation into the predictability and reproducibility of their material strength properties. This investigation was concerned with tension, compression, and short beam shear coupon testing of large samples from three different material suppliers to determine their statistical strength behavior. Statistical results indicate that a two Parameter Weibull distribution model provides better overall characterization of material behavior for the graphite-epoxy systems tested than does the standard Normal distribution model that is employed for most design work. While either a Weibull or Normal distribution model provides adequate predictions for average strength values, the Weibull model provides better characterization in the lower tail region where the predictions are of maximum design interest. The two sets of the same material were found to have essentially the same material properties, and indicate that repeatability can be achieved.

Statistical wind analysis for near-space applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roney, Jason A.

2007-09-01

Statistical wind models were developed based on the existing observational wind data for near-space altitudes between 60 000 and 100 000 ft (18 30 km) above ground level (AGL) at two locations, Akon, OH, USA, and White Sands, NM, USA. These two sites are envisioned as playing a crucial role in the first flights of high-altitude airships. The analysis shown in this paper has not been previously applied to this region of the stratosphere for such an application. Standard statistics were compiled for these data such as mean, median, maximum wind speed, and standard deviation, and the data were modeled with Weibull distributions. These statistics indicated, on a yearly average, there is a lull or a “knee” in the wind between 65 000 and 72 000 ft AGL (20 22 km). From the standard statistics, trends at both locations indicated substantial seasonal variation in the mean wind speed at these heights. The yearly and monthly statistical modeling indicated that Weibull distributions were a reasonable model for the data. Forecasts and hindcasts were done by using a Weibull model based on 2004 data and comparing the model with the 2003 and 2005 data. The 2004 distribution was also a reasonable model for these years. Lastly, the Weibull distribution and cumulative function were used to predict the 50%, 95%, and 99% winds, which are directly related to the expected power requirements of a near-space station-keeping airship. These values indicated that using only the standard deviation of the mean may underestimate the operational conditions.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN STRATEGY FOR THE WEIBULL DOSE RESPONSE MODEL (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of the research was to determine optimum design point allocation for estimation of relative yield losses from ozone pollution when the true and fitted yield-ozone dose response relationship follows the Weibull. The optimum design is dependent on the values of the We...

Investigation of Dielectric Breakdown Characteristics for Double-break Vacuum Interrupter and Dielectric Breakdown Probability Distribution in Vacuum Interrupter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shioiri, Tetsu; Asari, Naoki; Sato, Junichi; Sasage, Kosuke; Yokokura, Kunio; Homma, Mitsutaka; Suzuki, Katsumi

To investigate the reliability of equipment of vacuum insulation, a study was carried out to clarify breakdown probability distributions in vacuum gap. Further, a double-break vacuum circuit breaker was investigated for breakdown probability distribution. The test results show that the breakdown probability distribution of the vacuum gap can be represented by a Weibull distribution using a location parameter, which shows the voltage that permits a zero breakdown probability. The location parameter obtained from Weibull plot depends on electrode area. The shape parameter obtained from Weibull plot of vacuum gap was 10∼14, and is constant irrespective non-uniform field factor. The breakdown probability distribution after no-load switching can be represented by Weibull distribution using a location parameter. The shape parameter after no-load switching was 6∼8.5, and is constant, irrespective of gap length. This indicates that the scatter of breakdown voltage was increased by no-load switching. If the vacuum circuit breaker uses a double break, breakdown probability at low voltage becomes lower than single-break probability. Although potential distribution is a concern in the double-break vacuum cuicuit breaker, its insulation reliability is better than that of the single-break vacuum interrupter even if the bias of the vacuum interrupter's sharing voltage is taken into account.

Expectation maximization-based likelihood inference for flexible cure rate models with Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy; Pal, Suvra

2016-08-01

Recently, a flexible cure rate survival model has been developed by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution. This model includes some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature as special cases. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and expectation maximization algorithm can be used in this case to efficiently estimate the model parameters based on right censored data. In this paper, we consider the competing cause scenario and assuming the time-to-event to follow the Weibull distribution, we derive the necessary steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for estimating the parameters of different cure rate survival models. The standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by inverting the observed information matrix. The method of inference developed here is examined by means of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data on cancer recurrence. © The Author(s) 2013.

Reliability demonstration test for load-sharing systems with exponential and Weibull components

PubMed Central

Hu, Qingpei; Yu, Dan; Xie, Min

2017-01-01

Conducting a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) is a crucial step in production. Products are tested under certain schemes to demonstrate whether their reliability indices reach pre-specified thresholds. Test schemes for RDT have been studied in different situations, e.g., lifetime testing, degradation testing and accelerated testing. Systems designed with several structures are also investigated in many RDT plans. Despite the availability of a range of test plans for different systems, RDT planning for load-sharing systems hasn’t yet received the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a demonstration method for two specific types of load-sharing systems with components subject to two distributions: exponential and Weibull. Based on the assumptions and interpretations made in several previous works on such load-sharing systems, we set the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the total system as the demonstration target. We represent the MTTF as a summation of mean time between successive component failures. Next, we introduce generalized test statistics for both the underlying distributions. Finally, RDT plans for the two types of systems are established on the basis of these test statistics. PMID:29284030

Reliability demonstration test for load-sharing systems with exponential and Weibull components.

PubMed

Xu, Jianyu; Hu, Qingpei; Yu, Dan; Xie, Min

2017-01-01

Conducting a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) is a crucial step in production. Products are tested under certain schemes to demonstrate whether their reliability indices reach pre-specified thresholds. Test schemes for RDT have been studied in different situations, e.g., lifetime testing, degradation testing and accelerated testing. Systems designed with several structures are also investigated in many RDT plans. Despite the availability of a range of test plans for different systems, RDT planning for load-sharing systems hasn't yet received the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a demonstration method for two specific types of load-sharing systems with components subject to two distributions: exponential and Weibull. Based on the assumptions and interpretations made in several previous works on such load-sharing systems, we set the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the total system as the demonstration target. We represent the MTTF as a summation of mean time between successive component failures. Next, we introduce generalized test statistics for both the underlying distributions. Finally, RDT plans for the two types of systems are established on the basis of these test statistics.

Compositional Analyses and Shelf-Life Modeling of Njangsa (Ricinodendron heudelotii) Seed Oil Using the Weibull Hazard Analysis.

PubMed

Abaidoo-Ayin, Harold K; Boakye, Prince G; Jones, Kerby C; Wyatt, Victor T; Besong, Samuel A; Lumor, Stephen E

2017-08-01

This study investigated the compositional characteristics and shelf-life of Njangsa seed oil (NSO). Oil from Njangsa had a high polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) content of which alpha eleostearic acid (α-ESA), an unusual conjugated linoleic acid was the most prevalent (about 52%). Linoleic acid was also present in appreciable amounts (approximately 34%). Our investigations also indicated that the acid-catalyzed transesterification of NSO resulted in lower yields of α-ESA methyl esters, due to isomerization, a phenomenon which was not observed under basic conditions. The triacylglycerol (TAG) profile analysis showed the presence of at least 1 α-ESA fatty acid chain in more than 95% of the oil's TAGs. Shelf-life was determined by the Weibull Hazard Sensory Method, where the end of shelf-life was defined as the time at which 50% of panelists found the flavor of NSO to be unacceptable. This was determined as 21 wk. Our findings therefore support the potential commercial viability of NSO as an important source of physiologically beneficial PUFAs. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Application of the weibull distribution function to the molecular weight distribution of cellulose

Treesearch

A. Broido; Hsiukang Yow

1977-01-01

The molecular weight distribution of a linear homologous polymer is usually obtained empirically for any particular sample. Sample-to-sample comparisons are made in terms of the weight- or number-average molecular weights and graphic displays of the distribution curves. Such treatment generally precludes data interpretations in which a distribution can be described in...

Likelihood inference for COM-Poisson cure rate model with interval-censored data and Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N

2017-10-01

In this paper, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the number of competing causes to follow a Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution which can capture both over and under dispersion that is usually encountered in discrete data. Assuming the population of interest having a component cure and the form of the data to be interval censored, as opposed to the usually considered right-censored data, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of the flexible Conway-Maxwell Poisson cure rate model with Weibull lifetimes. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution is addressed using the likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria to select a suitable competing cause distribution that provides the best fit to the data. A simulation study is also carried out to demonstrate the loss in efficiency when selecting an improper competing cause distribution which justifies the use of a flexible family of distributions for the number of competing causes. Finally, the proposed methodology and the flexibility of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution are illustrated with two known data sets from the literature: smoking cessation data and breast cosmesis data.

A Model Based on Environmental Factors for Diameter Distribution in Black Wattle in Brazil

PubMed Central

Sanquetta, Carlos Roberto; Behling, Alexandre; Dalla Corte, Ana Paula; Péllico Netto, Sylvio; Rodrigues, Aurelio Lourenço; Simon, Augusto Arlindo

2014-01-01

This article discusses the dynamics of a diameter distribution in stands of black wattle throughout its growth cycle using the Weibull probability density function. Moreover, the parameters of this distribution were related to environmental variables from meteorological data and surface soil horizon with the aim of finding a model for diameter distribution which their coefficients were related to the environmental variables. We found that the diameter distribution of the stand changes only slightly over time and that the estimators of the Weibull function are correlated with various environmental variables, with accumulated rainfall foremost among them. Thus, a model was obtained in which the estimators of the Weibull function are dependent on rainfall. Such a function can have important applications, such as in simulating growth potential in regions where historical growth data is lacking, as well as the behavior of the stand under different environmental conditions. The model can also be used to project growth in diameter, based on the rainfall affecting the forest over a certain time period. PMID:24932909

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1987-01-01

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

A reappraisal of drug release laws using Monte Carlo simulations: the prevalence of the Weibull function.

PubMed

Kosmidis, Kosmas; Argyrakis, Panos; Macheras, Panos

2003-07-01

To verify the Higuchi law and study the drug release from cylindrical and spherical matrices by means of Monte Carlo computer simulation. A one-dimensional matrix, based on the theoretical assumptions of the derivation of the Higuchi law, was simulated and its time evolution was monitored. Cylindrical and spherical three-dimensional lattices were simulated with sites at the boundary of the lattice having been denoted as leak sites. Particles were allowed to move inside it using the random walk model. Excluded volume interactions between the particles was assumed. We have monitored the system time evolution for different lattice sizes and different initial particle concentrations. The Higuchi law was verified using the Monte Carlo technique in a one-dimensional lattice. It was found that Fickian drug release from cylindrical matrices can be approximated nicely with the Weibull function. A simple linear relation between the Weibull function parameters and the specific surface of the system was found. Drug release from a matrix, as a result of a diffusion process assuming excluded volume interactions between the drug molecules, can be described using a Weibull function. This model, although approximate and semiempirical, has the benefit of providing a simple physical connection between the model parameters and the system geometry, which was something missing from other semiempirical models.

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram–Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation. PMID:28394949

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments.

PubMed

Munkhammar, Joakim; Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram-Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.

Effect of Endocrown Restorations with Different CAD/CAM Materials: 3D Finite Element and Weibull Analyses

PubMed Central

Ulusoy, Nuran

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of two endocrown designs and computer aided design/manufacturing (CAD/CAM) materials on stress distribution and failure probability of restorations applied to severely damaged endodontically treated maxillary first premolar tooth (MFP). Two types of designs without and with 3 mm intraradicular extensions, endocrown (E) and modified endocrown (ME), were modeled on a 3D Finite element (FE) model of the MFP. Vitablocks Mark II (VMII), Vita Enamic (VE), and Lava Ultimate (LU) CAD/CAM materials were used for each type of design. von Mises and maximum principle values were evaluated and the Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long term failure probability. Regarding the stresses that occurred in enamel, for each group of material, ME restoration design transmitted less stress than endocrown. During normal occlusal function, the overall failure probability was minimum for ME with VMII. ME restoration design with VE was the best restorative option for premolar teeth with extensive loss of coronal structure under high occlusal loads. Therefore, ME design could be a favorable treatment option for MFPs with missing palatal cusp. Among the CAD/CAM materials tested, VMII and VE were found to be more tooth-friendly than LU. PMID:29119108

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1987-01-01

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Distribution analysis of airborne nicotine concentrations in hospitality facilities.

PubMed

Schorp, Matthias K; Leyden, Donald E

2002-02-01

A number of publications report statistical summaries for environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) concentrations. Despite compelling evidence for the data not being normally distributed, these publications typically report the arithmetic mean and standard deviation of the data, thereby losing important information related to the distribution of values contained in the original data. We were interested in the frequency distributions of reported nicotine concentrations in hospitality environments and subjected available data to distribution analyses. The distribution of experimental indoor airborne nicotine concentration data taken from hospitality facilities worldwide was fit to lognormal, Weibull, exponential, Pearson (Type V), logistic, and loglogistic distribution models. Comparison of goodness of fit (GOF) parameters and indications from the literature verified the selection of a lognormal distribution as the overall best model. When individual data were not reported in the literature, statistical summaries of results were used to model sets of lognormally distributed data that are intended to mimic the original data distribution. Grouping the data into various categories led to 31 frequency distributions that were further interpreted. The median values in nonsmoking environments are about half of the median values in smoking sections. When different continents are compared, Asian, European, and North American median values in restaurants are about a factor of three below levels encountered in other hospitality facilities. On a comparison of nicotine concentrations in North American smoking sections and nonsmoking sections, median values are about one-third of the European levels. The results obtained may be used to address issues related to exposure to ETS in the hospitality sector.

Analysis of stratocumulus cloud fields using LANDSAT imagery: Size distributions and spatial separations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, R. M.; Sengupta, S. K.; Chen, D. W.

1990-01-01

Stratocumulus cloud fields in the FIRE IFO region are analyzed using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper imagery. Structural properties such as cloud cell size distribution, cell horizontal aspect ratio, fractional coverage and fractal dimension are determined. It is found that stratocumulus cloud number densities are represented by a power law. Cell horizontal aspect ratio has a tendency to increase at large cell sizes, and cells are bi-fractal in nature. Using LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner imagery for twelve selected stratocumulus scenes acquired during previous years, similar structural characteristics are obtained. Cloud field spatial organization also is analyzed. Nearest-neighbor spacings are fit with a number of functions, with Weibull and Gamma distributions providing the best fits. Poisson tests show that the spatial separations are not random. Second order statistics are used to examine clustering.

Idealized models of the joint probability distribution of wind speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monahan, Adam H.

2018-05-01

The joint probability distribution of wind speeds at two separate locations in space or points in time completely characterizes the statistical dependence of these two quantities, providing more information than linear measures such as correlation. In this study, we consider two models of the joint distribution of wind speeds obtained from idealized models of the dependence structure of the horizontal wind velocity components. The bivariate Rice distribution follows from assuming that the wind components have Gaussian and isotropic fluctuations. The bivariate Weibull distribution arises from power law transformations of wind speeds corresponding to vector components with Gaussian, isotropic, mean-zero variability. Maximum likelihood estimates of these distributions are compared using wind speed data from the mid-troposphere, from different altitudes at the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands, and from scatterometer observations over the sea surface. While the bivariate Rice distribution is more flexible and can represent a broader class of dependence structures, the bivariate Weibull distribution is mathematically simpler and may be more convenient in many applications. The complexity of the mathematical expressions obtained for the joint distributions suggests that the development of explicit functional forms for multivariate speed distributions from distributions of the components will not be practical for more complicated dependence structure or more than two speed variables.

A New Insight into the Earthquake Recurrence Studies from the Three-parameter Generalized Exponential Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasari, S.; Kundu, D.; Dikshit, O.

2012-12-01

Earthquake recurrence interval is one of the important ingredients towards probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for any location. Exponential, gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions are quite established probability models in this recurrence interval estimation. However, they have certain shortcomings too. Thus, it is imperative to search for some alternative sophisticated distributions. In this paper, we introduce a three-parameter (location, scale and shape) exponentiated exponential distribution and investigate the scope of this distribution as an alternative of the afore-mentioned distributions in earthquake recurrence studies. This distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution. Despite of its complicated form, it is widely accepted in medical and biological applications. Furthermore, it shares many physical properties with gamma and Weibull family. Unlike gamma distribution, the hazard function of generalized exponential distribution can be easily computed even if the shape parameter is not an integer. To contemplate the plausibility of this model, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0) spanning for the period 1846 to 1995 from North-East Himalayan region (20-32 deg N and 87-100 deg E) has been used. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of moment estimator (MOME). No geological or geophysical evidences have been considered in this calculation. The estimated conditional probability reaches quite high after about a decade for an elapsed time of 17 years (i.e. 2012). Moreover, this study shows that the generalized exponential distribution fits the above data events more closely compared to the conventional models and hence it is tentatively concluded that generalized exponential distribution can be effectively considered in earthquake recurrence studies.

The comparative kinetic analysis of Acetocell and Lignoboost® lignin pyrolysis: the estimation of the distributed reactivity models.

PubMed

Janković, Bojan

2011-10-01

The non-isothermal pyrolysis kinetics of Acetocell (the organosolv) and Lignoboost® (kraft) lignins, in an inert atmosphere, have been studied by thermogravimetric analysis. Using isoconversional analysis, it was concluded that the apparent activation energy for all lignins strongly depends on conversion, showing that the pyrolysis of lignins is not a single chemical process. It was identified that the pyrolysis process of Acetocell and Lignoboost® lignin takes place over three reaction steps, which was confirmed by appearance of the corresponding isokinetic relationships (IKR). It was found that major pyrolysis stage of both lignins is characterized by stilbene pyrolysis reactions, which were subsequently followed by decomposition reactions of products derived from the stilbene pyrolytic process. It was concluded that non-isothermal pyrolysis of Acetocell and Lignoboost® lignins can be best described by n-th (n>1) reaction order kinetics, using the Weibull mixture model (as distributed reactivity model) with alternating shape parameters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

Assessing a Tornado Climatology from Global Tornado Intensity Distributions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feuerstein, Bernold; Dotzek, Nikolai; Grieser, Jürgen

2005-02-01

Recent work demonstrated that the shape of tornado intensity distributions from various regions worldwide is well described by Weibull functions. This statistical modeling revealed a strong correlation between the fit parameters c for shape and b for scale regardless of the data source. In the present work it is shown that the quality of the Weibull fits is optimized if only tornado reports of F1 and higher intensity are used and that the c-b correlation does indeed reflect a universal feature of the observed tornado intensity distributions. For regions with likely supercell tornado dominance, this feature is the number ratio of F4 to F3 tornado reports R(F4/F3) = 0.238. The c-b diagram for the Weibull shape and scale parameters is used as a climatological chart, which allows different types of tornado climatology to be distinguished, presumably arising from supercell versus nonsupercell tornadogenesis. Assuming temporal invariance of the climatology and using a detection efficiency function for tornado observations, a stationary climatological probability distribution from large tornado records (U.S. decadal data 1950-99) is extracted. This can be used for risk assessment, comparative studies on tornado intensity distributions worldwide, and estimates of the degree of underreporting for areas with poor databases. For the 1990s U.S. data, a likely tornado underreporting of the weak events (F0, F1) by a factor of 2 can be diagnosed, as well as asymptotic climatological c,b values of c = 1.79 and b = 2.13, to which a convergence in the 1950-99 U.S. decadal data is verified.

Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.

2012-12-01

research show that the brute force method is best for wind assessment purpose, SBSS outperforms other sampling strategies in the majority of cases. The results indicate that the Weibull scale parameter, turbine lifetime and Weibull shape parameter are the three most influential variables in the case study setting. The following conclusions can be drawn from these results: 1) SBSS should be recommended for use in Monte Carlo experiments, 2) The brute force method should be recommended for conducting sensitivity analysis in wind resource assessment, and 3) Little variation in the Weibull scale causes significant variation in energy production. The presence of the two distribution parameters in the top three influential variables (the Weibull shape and scale) emphasizes the importance of accuracy of (a) choosing the distribution to model wind regime at a site and (b) estimating probability distribution parameters. This can be labeled as the most important conclusion of this research because it opens a field for further research, which the authors see could change the wind energy field tremendously.

Size Effect on Specific Energy Distribution in Particle Comminution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yongfu; Wang, Yidong

A theoretical study is made to derive an energy distribution equation for the size reduction process from the fractal model for the particle comminution. Fractal model is employed as a valid measure of the self-similar size distribution of comminution daughter products. The tensile strength of particles varies with particle size in the manner of a power function law. The energy consumption for comminuting single particle is found to be proportional to the 5(D-3)/3rd order of the particle size, D being the fractal dimension of particle comminution daughter. The Weibull statistics is applied to describe the relationship between the breakage probability and specific energy of particle comminution. A simple equation is derived for the breakage probability of particles in view of the dependence of fracture energy on particle size. The calculated exponents and Weibull coefficients are generally in conformity with published data for fracture of particles.

Bivariate extreme value distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, M.

1992-01-01

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing either the power or Paris law relations. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating proof testing and fatigue parameter estimation are given.

Approximation of the breast height diameter distribution of two-cohort stands by mixture models I Parameter estimation

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis A. Roesch

2013-01-01

Study assessed the usefulness of various methods for choosing the initial values for the numerical procedures for estimating the parameters of mixture distributions and analysed variety of mixture models to approximate empirical diameter at breast height (dbh) distributions. Two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution were...

A New Lifetime Distribution with Bathtube and Unimodal Hazard Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriga, Gladys D. C.; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; Cancho, Vicente G.

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which accommodate bathtub-shaped, unimodal, increasing and decreasing hazard function. Some special particular cases are derived, including the standard Weibull distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered for estimate the tree parameters present in the model. The methodology is illustrated in a real data set on industrial devices on a lite test.

Weibull thermodynamics: Subexponential decay in the energy spectrum of cosmic-ray nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaschitz, Roman

2017-10-01

The spectral number density of cosmic-ray nuclei is shown to be a multiply broken power law with subexponential spectral cutoff. To this end, a spectral fit is performed to data sets covering the 1GeV - 1011GeV interval of the all-particle cosmic-ray spectrum. The flux points of the ultra-high energy spectral tail measured with the Telescope Array indicate a Weibull cutoff exp(-(E /(kB T)) σ) and permit a precise determination of the cutoff temperature kB T =(2 . 5 ± 0 . 1) × 1010 GeV and the spectral index σ = 0 . 66 ± 0 . 02. Based on the spectral number density inferred from the least-squares fit, the thermodynamics of this stationary non-equilibrium system, a multi-component mixture of relativistic nuclei, is developed. The derivative of entropy with respect to internal energy defines the effective temperature of the nuclei, S,U = 1 /Teff ,kBTeff ≈ 16 . 1 GeV, and the functional dependence between the cutoff temperature in the Weibull exponential and the effective gas temperature is determined. The equipartition ratio is found to be U /(NkBTeff) ≈ 0 . 30. The isochoric and isobaric heat capacities of the nuclear gas are calculated, as well as the isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities and the isobaric expansion coefficient, and it is shown that this non-equilibrated relativistic gas mixture satisfies the thermodynamic inequalities 0

Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo.

PubMed

Tojinbara, Kageaki; Sugiura, K; Yamada, A; Kakitani, I; Kwan, N C L; Sugiura, K

2016-01-01

Data of 98 rabies cases in dogs and cats from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo were used to estimate the probability distribution of the incubation period. Lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions were used to model the incubation period. The maximum likelihood estimates of the mean incubation period ranged from 27.30 to 28.56 days according to different distributions. The mean incubation period was shortest with the lognormal distribution (27.30 days), and longest with the Weibull distribution (28.56 days). The best distribution in terms of AIC value was the lognormal distribution with mean value of 27.30 (95% CI: 23.46-31.55) days and standard deviation of 20.20 (15.27-26.31) days. There were no significant differences between the incubation periods for dogs and cats, or between those for male and female dogs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.

2015-02-10

In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizesmore » the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)« less

A simple linear regression method for quantitative trait loci linkage analysis with censored observations.

PubMed

Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

2006-07-01

Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.

Comparison between a Weibull proportional hazards model and a linear model for predicting the genetic merit of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity.

PubMed

Caraviello, D Z; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D

2004-05-01

Predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity were calculated using a Weibull proportional hazards sire model and compared with predictions from a conventional linear animal model. Culling data from 268,008 Jersey cows with first calving from 1981 to 2000 were used. The proportional hazards model included time-dependent effects of herd-year-season contemporary group and parity by stage of lactation interaction, as well as time-independent effects of sire and age at first calving. Sire variances and parameters of the Weibull distribution were estimated, providing heritability estimates of 4.7% on the log scale and 18.0% on the original scale. The PTA of each sire was expressed as the expected risk of culling relative to daughters of an average sire. Risk ratios (RR) ranged from 0.7 to 1.3, indicating that the risk of culling for daughters of the best sires was 30% lower than for daughters of average sires and nearly 50% lower than than for daughters of the poorest sires. Sire PTA from the proportional hazards model were compared with PTA from a linear model similar to that used for routine national genetic evaluation of length of productive life (PL) using cross-validation in independent samples of herds. Models were compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to second, third, fourth, or fifth lactation on their sires' PTA values, with alternative approaches for weighting the contribution of each sire. Models were also compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 mo of life. The proportional hazards model generally yielded more accurate predictions according to these criteria, but differences in predictive ability between methods were smaller when using a Kullback-Leibler distance than with other approaches. Results of this study suggest that survival analysis methodology may provide more accurate predictions of genetic merit for longevity than conventional linear models.

Equations for estimating loblolly pine branch and foliage weight and surface area distributions

Treesearch

V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson; Harold E. Burkhatt; Ralph L. Amateis; Phillip M. Dougherty

1996-01-01

Equations to predict foliage weight and surface area, and their vertical and horizontal distributions, within the crowns of unthinned loblolly pine (Pinus tueduL.) trees are presented. A right-truncated Weibull function was used for describing vertical foliage distributions. This function ensures that all of the foliage located between the tree tip and the foliage base...

Fast Reliability Assessing Method for Distribution Network with Distributed Renewable Energy Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fan; Huang, Shaoxiong; Ding, Jinjin; Ding, Jinjin; Gao, Bo; Xie, Yuguang; Wang, Xiaoming

2018-01-01

This paper proposes a fast reliability assessing method for distribution grid with distributed renewable energy generation. First, the Weibull distribution and the Beta distribution are used to describe the probability distribution characteristics of wind speed and solar irradiance respectively, and the models of wind farm, solar park and local load are built for reliability assessment. Then based on power system production cost simulation probability discretization and linearization power flow, a optimal power flow objected with minimum cost of conventional power generation is to be resolved. Thus a reliability assessment for distribution grid is implemented fast and accurately. The Loss Of Load Probability (LOLP) and Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) are selected as the reliability index, a simulation for IEEE RBTS BUS6 system in MATLAB indicates that the fast reliability assessing method calculates the reliability index much faster with the accuracy ensured when compared with Monte Carlo method.

Monolithic ceramic analysis using the SCARE program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.

1988-01-01

The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.

Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Furbish, David; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan

2016-01-01

We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

Modelling diameter distributions of two-cohort forest stands with various proportions of dominant species: a two-component mixture model approach.

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis Roesch

2014-01-01

In recent years finite-mixture models have been employed to approximate and model empirical diameter at breast height (DBH) distributions. We used two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution for describing the DBH distributions of mixed-species, two-cohort forest stands, to analyse the relationships between the DBH components,...

Effect of grain growth of [beta]-silicon nitride on strength, Weibull modulus, and fracture toughness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirosaki, Naota; Akimune, Yoshio; Mitomo, Mamoru

1993-07-01

[beta]-Si[sub 3]N[sub 4] powder containing 1 mol% of equimolar Y[sub 2]O[sub 3]-Nd[sub 2]O[sub 3] was gas-pressure sintered at 2,000C for 2 h (SN2), 4 h (SN4), and 8 h (SN8) in 30-MPa nitrogen gas. These materials had a microstructure of in-situ composites'' as a result of exaggerated grain growth of some [beta]-Si[sub 3]N[sub 4] grains during firing. Growth of elongated grains was controlled by the sintering time, so that the desired microstructures were obtained. SN2 had a Weibull modulus as high as 53 because of the uniform size and spatial distribution of its large grains. SN4 had a fracture toughnessmore » of 10.3 MPa[center dot]m[sup 1/2] because of toughening provided by the bridging of elongated grains, whereas SN8 showed a lower fracture toughness, possibly caused by extensive microcracking resulting from excessively large grains. Gas-pressure sintering of [beta]-Si[sub 3]N[sub 4] powder was shown to be effective in fostering selective grain growth for obtaining the desired composite microstructure.« less

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Huarui; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.; Kuball, Martin

2015-01-01

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage "hot spots" at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7-0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which is consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.

A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-02-01

Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

Approximation of the breast height diameter distribution of two-cohort stands by mixture models II Goodness-of-fit tests

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis .A. Roesch

2013-01-01

The goals of this study are (1) to analyse the accuracy of the approximation of empirical distributions of diameter at breast height (dbh) using two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution in two−cohort stands, and (2) to discuss the procedure of choosing goodness−of−fit tests. The study plots were...

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Huarui, E-mail: huarui.sun@bristol.ac.uk; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.

2015-01-26

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage “hot spots” at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7–0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which ismore » consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.« less

Approximation of the breast height diameter distribution of two-cohort stands by mixture models III Kernel density estimators vs mixture models

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis A. Roesch

2014-01-01

Two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution and the kernel density estimator were used for describing the diameter at breast height (dbh) empirical distributions of two-cohort stands. The data consisted of study plots from the Å wietokrzyski National Park (central Poland) and areas close to and including the North Carolina section...

SCARE: A post-processor program to MSC/NASTRAN for the reliability analysis of structural ceramic components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, J. P.

1985-01-01

A computer program was developed for calculating the statistical fast fracture reliability and failure probability of ceramic components. The program includes the two-parameter Weibull material fracture strength distribution model, using the principle of independent action for polyaxial stress states and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive crack theories, all for volume distributed flaws in macroscopically isotropic solids. Both penny-shaped cracks and Griffith cracks are included in the Batdorf shear-sensitive crack response calculations, using Griffith's maximum tensile stress or critical coplanar strain energy release rate criteria to predict mixed mode fracture. Weibull material parameters can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and fracture data. The reliability prediction analysis uses MSC/NASTRAN stress, temperature and volume output, obtained from the use of three-dimensional, quadratic, isoparametric, or axisymmetric finite elements. The statistical fast fracture theories employed, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function.

PubMed

Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-02-01

Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

Statistical study of air pollutant concentrations via generalized gamma distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marani, A.; Lavagnini, I.; Buttazzoni, C.

1986-11-01

This paper deals with modeling observed frequency distributions of air quality data measured in the area of Venice, Italy. The paper discusses the application of the generalized gamma distribution (ggd) which has not been commonly applied to air quality data notwithstanding the fact that it embodies most distribution models used for air quality analyses. The approach yields important simplifications for statistical analyses. A comparison among the ggd and other relevant models (standard gamma, Weibull, lognormal), carried out on daily sulfur dioxide concentrations in the area of Venice underlines the efficiency of ggd models in portraying experimental data.

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2003-01-01

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Simulation of flight maneuver-load distributions by utilizing stationary, non-Gaussian random load histories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leybold, H. A.

1971-01-01

Random numbers were generated with the aid of a digital computer and transformed such that the probability density function of a discrete random load history composed of these random numbers had one of the following non-Gaussian distributions: Poisson, binomial, log-normal, Weibull, and exponential. The resulting random load histories were analyzed to determine their peak statistics and were compared with cumulative peak maneuver-load distributions for fighter and transport aircraft in flight.

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1992-01-01

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

Development of Testing Methodologies for the Mechanical Properties of MEMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate and design testing strategies to determine the mechanical properties of MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) as well as investigate the development of a MEMS Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM). One item of potential interest is the design of a test for the Weibull size effect in pressure membranes. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. However, the primary area of investigation will most likely be analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. This will be a continuation of the previous years work. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads.

Analysis of Flexural Fatigue Strength of Self Compacting Fibre Reinforced Concrete Beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murali, G.; Sudar Celestina, J. P. Arul; Subhashini, N.; Vigneshwari, M.

2017-07-01

This study presents the extensive statistical investigation ofvariations in flexural fatigue life of self-compacting Fibrous Concrete (FC) beams. For this purpose, the experimental data of earlier researchers were examined by two parameter Weibull distribution.Two methods namely Graphical and moment wereused to analyse the variations in experimental data and the results have been presented in the form of probability of survival. The Weibull parameters values obtained from graphical and method of moments are precise. At 0.7 stress level, the fatigue life shows 59861 cyclesfor areliability of 90%.

Failure rate and reliability of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator in surface limestone mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harish Kumar N., S.; Choudhary, R. P.; Murthy, Ch. S. N.

2018-04-01

The model with failure rate function of bathtub-shaped is helpful in reliability analysis of any system and particularly in reliability associated privative maintenance. The usual Weibull distribution is, however, not capable to model the complete lifecycle of the any with a bathtub-shaped failure rate function. In this paper, failure rate and reliability analysis of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator/shovel in surface mine is presented and also to improve the reliability and decrease the failure rate of each subsystem of the shovel based on the preventive maintenance. The model of the bathtub-shaped for shovel can also be seen as a simplification of the Weibull distribution.

Effect of air-abrasion regimens and fine diamond bur grinding on flexural strength, Weibull modulus and phase transformation of zirconium dioxide.

PubMed

Michida, Silvia Masae de Araújo; Kimpara, Estevão Tomomitsu; dos Santos, Claudinei; Souza, Rodrigo Othavio Assunção; Bottino, Marco Antonio; Özcan, Mutlu

2015-10-16

This study evaluated the effect of air abrasion and polishing regimens on the flexural strength of yttrium stabilized polycrystalline tetragonal zirconia (Y-TZP). From Y-TZP blocks (InCeram 2000 YZ Cubes; Vita Zahnfabrik, Bad Säckingen, Germany) 120 bars (25 mm × 4 mm × 1.2 mm) were obtained according to ISO 6872:2008 and randomly divided into 4 groups: Group C: (control) without surface treatment (n = 30); Group APA: Air abrasion with aluminum oxide (44 µm) (n = 30); Group SC: Silica-coating (CoJet, 30 µm) (n = 30); Group FD: Fine diamond bur (n = 30). Subsequently, all specimens were subjected to 4-point bending test (in distilled water at 37 °C) in a universal testing machine (EMIC DL 1000; São José dos Pinhais, Paraná, Brazil); cross-head speed: 0.5 mm/min). The characteristic strength (σ0) of each specimen was obtained from the flexural strength test and evaluated using Weibull analysis. X-ray diffraction analysis was utilized to quantity the monoclinic phase. The surface topography of specimens was analyzed using 3D optical profilometer and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) after surface conditioning methods. The flexural strength data (σ4p) were statistically analyzed by 1-way ANOVA, Tukey test (α = 0.05) and Weibull (m = modulus, σ0 = characteristic strength) were calculated. The mean ± standard deviations (MPa) of the groups were as follows: C: 1196.2 ± 284.2a; APA: 1369.7 ± 272.3a; SC: 1207.1 ± 229.7a and FD: 874.4 ± 365.4b. The values (m) and (σ0) were as follows: C: 4.5 and 1308.12; APA: 5.9 and 1477.88; SC: 6.0 and 1300.28; and FD: 2.6 and 985.901, respectively. Air particle abrasion with neither silica nor alumina showed significant difference compared to the control group but grinding with fine diamond bur impaired the flexural strength of the zirconia tested.

Weibull Multiplicative Model and Machine Learning Models for Full-Automatic Dark-Spot Detection from SAR Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taravat, A.; Del Frate, F.

2013-09-01

As a major aspect of marine pollution, oil release into the sea has serious biological and environmental impacts. Among remote sensing systems (which is a tool that offers a non-destructive investigation method), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can provide valuable synoptic information about the position and size of the oil spill due to its wide area coverage and day/night, and all-weather capabilities. In this paper we present a new automated method for oil-spill monitoring. A new approach is based on the combination of Weibull Multiplicative Model and machine learning techniques to differentiate between dark spots and the background. First, the filter created based on Weibull Multiplicative Model is applied to each sub-image. Second, the sub-image is segmented by two different neural networks techniques (Pulsed Coupled Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks). As the last step, a very simple filtering process is used to eliminate the false targets. The proposed approaches were tested on 20 ENVISAT and ERS2 images which contained dark spots. The same parameters were used in all tests. For the overall dataset, the average accuracies of 94.05 % and 95.20 % were obtained for PCNN and MLP methods, respectively. The average computational time for dark-spot detection with a 256 × 256 image in about 4 s for PCNN segmentation using IDL software which is the fastest one in this field at present. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very fast, robust and effective. The proposed approach can be applied to the future spaceborne SAR images.

Handling of computational in vitro/in vivo correlation problems by Microsoft Excel II. Distribution functions and moments.

PubMed

Langenbucher, Frieder

2003-01-01

MS Excel is a useful tool to handle in vitro/in vivo correlation (IVIVC) distribution functions, with emphasis on the Weibull and the biexponential distribution, which are most useful for the presentation of cumulative profiles, e.g. release in vitro or urinary excretion in vivo, and differential profiles such as the plasma response in vivo. The discussion includes moments (AUC and mean) as summarizing statistics, and data-fitting algorithms for parameter estimation.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

A Weibull model to describe antimicrobial kinetics of oregano and lemongrass essential oils against Salmonella Enteritidis in ground beef during refrigerated storage.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Thales Leandro Coutinho; Soares, Rodrigo de Araújo; Piccoli, Roberta Hilsdorf

2013-03-01

The antimicrobial effect of oregano (Origanum vulgare L.) and lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus (DC.) Stapf.) essential oils (EOs) against Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis in in vitro experiments, and inoculated in ground bovine meat during refrigerated storage (4±2 °C) for 6 days was evaluated. The Weibull model was tested to fit survival/inactivation bacterial curves (estimating of p and δ parameters). The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) value for both EOs on S. Enteritidis was 3.90 μl/ml. The EO concentrations applied in the ground beef were 3.90, 7.80 and 15.60 μl/g, based on MIC levels and possible activity reduction by food constituents. Both evaluated EOs in all tested levels, showed antimicrobial effects, with microbial populations reducing (p≤0.05) along time storage. Evaluating fit-quality parameters (RSS and RSE) Weibull models are able to describe the inactivation curves of EOs against S. Enteritidis. The application of EOs in processed meats can be used to control pathogens during refrigerated shelf-life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.

2008-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.

Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

2017-12-01

Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

Particle shape analysis of volcanic clast samples with the Matlab tool MORPHEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charpentier, Isabelle; Sarocchi, Damiano; Rodriguez Sedano, Luis Angel

2013-02-01

This paper presents a modular Matlab tool, namely MORPHEO, devoted to the study of particle morphology by Fourier analysis. A benchmark made of four sample images with different features (digitized coins, a pebble chart, gears, digitized volcanic clasts) is then proposed to assess the abilities of the software. Attention is brought to the Weibull distribution introduced to enhance fine variations of particle morphology. Finally, as an example, samples pertaining to a lahar deposit located in La Lumbre ravine (Colima Volcano, Mexico) are analysed. MORPHEO and the benchmark are freely available for research purposes.

Distributed analysis at LHCb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Mike; Egede, Ulrik; Paterson, Stuart; LHCb Collaboration

2011-12-01

The distributed analysis experience to date at LHCb has been positive: job success rates are high and wait times for high-priority jobs are low. LHCb users access the grid using the GANGA job-management package, while the LHCb virtual organization manages its resources using the DIRAC package. This clear division of labor has benefitted LHCb and its users greatly; it is a major reason why distributed analysis at LHCb has been so successful. The newly formed LHCb distributed analysis support team has also proved to be a success.

Particle size distributions by transmission electron microscopy: an interlaboratory comparison case study

PubMed Central

Rice, Stephen B; Chan, Christopher; Brown, Scott C; Eschbach, Peter; Han, Li; Ensor, David S; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Bonevich, John; Vladár, András E; Hight Walker, Angela R; Zheng, Jiwen; Starnes, Catherine; Stromberg, Arnold; Ye, Jia; Grulke, Eric A

2015-01-01

This paper reports an interlaboratory comparison that evaluated a protocol for measuring and analysing the particle size distribution of discrete, metallic, spheroidal nanoparticles using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The study was focused on automated image capture and automated particle analysis. NIST RM8012 gold nanoparticles (30 nm nominal diameter) were measured for area-equivalent diameter distributions by eight laboratories. Statistical analysis was used to (1) assess the data quality without using size distribution reference models, (2) determine reference model parameters for different size distribution reference models and non-linear regression fitting methods and (3) assess the measurement uncertainty of a size distribution parameter by using its coefficient of variation. The interlaboratory area-equivalent diameter mean, 27.6 nm ± 2.4 nm (computed based on a normal distribution), was quite similar to the area-equivalent diameter, 27.6 nm, assigned to NIST RM8012. The lognormal reference model was the preferred choice for these particle size distributions as, for all laboratories, its parameters had lower relative standard errors (RSEs) than the other size distribution reference models tested (normal, Weibull and Rosin–Rammler–Bennett). The RSEs for the fitted standard deviations were two orders of magnitude higher than those for the fitted means, suggesting that most of the parameter estimate errors were associated with estimating the breadth of the distributions. The coefficients of variation for the interlaboratory statistics also confirmed the lognormal reference model as the preferred choice. From quasi-linear plots, the typical range for good fits between the model and cumulative number-based distributions was 1.9 fitted standard deviations less than the mean to 2.3 fitted standard deviations above the mean. Automated image capture, automated particle analysis and statistical evaluation of the data and fitting coefficients provide a

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1991-01-01

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Transformation and Self-Similarity Properties of Gamma and Weibull Fragment Size Distributions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

spray formed when a fast gas stream blows over a liquid volume.” As a theoretical justification, they showed that Gamma size distributions are...of Fracture, 140, 243, 2006 P.-K. Wu, G. A. Ruff, and G. M. Faeth, Primary Breakup in Liquid - Gas Mixing Layers, Atomization and Sprays, 1, 421-440...103 meter (m) barn (b) 1 × 10–28 square meter (m2) gallon (gal, U.S. liquid ) 3.785 412 × 10–3 cubic meter (m3) cubic foot (ft3) 2.831 685 × 10–2

Distributed analysis in ATLAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewhurst, A.; Legger, F.

2015-12-01

The ATLAS experiment accumulated more than 140 PB of data during the first run of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. The analysis of such an amount of data is a challenging task for the distributed physics community. The Distributed Analysis (DA) system of the ATLAS experiment is an established and stable component of the ATLAS distributed computing operations. About half a million user jobs are running daily on DA resources, submitted by more than 1500 ATLAS physicists. The reliability of the DA system during the first run of the LHC and the following shutdown period has been high thanks to the continuous automatic validation of the distributed analysis sites and the user support provided by a dedicated team of expert shifters. During the LHC shutdown, the ATLAS computing model has undergone several changes to improve the analysis workflows, including the re-design of the production system, a new analysis data format and event model, and the development of common reduction and analysis frameworks. We report on the impact such changes have on the DA infrastructure, describe the new DA components, and include recent performance measurements.

CRACK GROWTH ANALYSIS OF SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL ELECTROLYTES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. Bandopadhyay; N. Nagabhushana

2003-10-01

Defects and Flaws control the structural and functional property of ceramics. In determining the reliability and lifetime of ceramics structures it is very important to quantify the crack growth behavior of the ceramics. In addition, because of the high variability of the strength and the relatively low toughness of ceramics, a statistical design approach is necessary. The statistical nature of the strength of ceramics is currently well recognized, and is usually accounted for by utilizing Weibull or similar statistical distributions. Design tools such as CARES using a combination of strength measurements, stress analysis, and statistics are available and reasonably wellmore » developed. These design codes also incorporate material data such as elastic constants as well as flaw distributions and time-dependent properties. The fast fracture reliability for ceramics is often different from their time-dependent reliability. Further confounding the design complexity, the time-dependent reliability varies with the environment/temperature/stress combination. Therefore, it becomes important to be able to accurately determine the behavior of ceramics under simulated application conditions to provide a better prediction of the lifetime and reliability for a given component. In the present study, Yttria stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) of 9.6 mol% Yttria composition was procured in the form of tubes of length 100 mm. The composition is of interest as tubular electrolytes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. Rings cut from the tubes were characterized for microstructure, phase stability, mechanical strength (Weibull modulus) and fracture mechanisms. The strength at operating condition of SOFCs (1000 C) decreased to 95 MPa as compared to room temperature strength of 230 MPa. However, the Weibull modulus remains relatively unchanged. Slow crack growth (SCG) parameter, n = 17 evaluated at room temperature in air was representative of well studied brittle materials. Based on the results

The stochastic distribution of available coefficient of friction for human locomotion of five different floor surfaces.

PubMed

Chang, Wen-Ruey; Matz, Simon; Chang, Chien-Chi

2014-05-01

The maximum coefficient of friction that can be supported at the shoe and floor interface without a slip is usually called the available coefficient of friction (ACOF) for human locomotion. The probability of a slip could be estimated using a statistical model by comparing the ACOF with the required coefficient of friction (RCOF), assuming that both coefficients have stochastic distributions. An investigation of the stochastic distributions of the ACOF of five different floor surfaces under dry, water and glycerol conditions is presented in this paper. One hundred friction measurements were performed on each floor surface under each surface condition. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test was used to determine if the distribution of the ACOF was a good fit with the normal, log-normal and Weibull distributions. The results indicated that the ACOF distributions had a slightly better match with the normal and log-normal distributions than with the Weibull in only three out of 15 cases with a statistical significance. The results are far more complex than what had heretofore been published and different scenarios could emerge. Since the ACOF is compared with the RCOF for the estimate of slip probability, the distribution of the ACOF in seven cases could be considered a constant for this purpose when the ACOF is much lower or higher than the RCOF. A few cases could be represented by a normal distribution for practical reasons based on their skewness and kurtosis values without a statistical significance. No representation could be found in three cases out of 15. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

CARES/PC - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szatmary, S. A.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES/PC performs statistical analysis of data obtained from the fracture of simple, uniaxial tensile or flexural specimens and estimates the Weibull and Batdorf material parameters from this data. CARES/PC is a subset of the program CARES (COSMIC program number LEW-15168) which calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of ceramic components utilizing the Batdorf and Weibull models to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. CARES additionally requires that the ceramic structure be modeled by a finite element program such as MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS. The more limited CARES/PC does not perform fast-fracture reliability estimation of components. CARES/PC estimates ceramic material properties from uniaxial tensile or from three- and four-point bend bar data. In general, the parameters are obtained from the fracture stresses of many specimens (30 or more are recommended) whose geometry and loading configurations are held constant. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests measure the accuracy of the hypothesis that the fracture data comes from a population with a distribution specified by the estimated Weibull parameters. Ninety-percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters and the unbiased value of the shape parameter for complete samples are provided

Detailed Analysis of the Interoccurrence Time Statistics in Seismic Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroki; Aizawa, Yoji

2017-02-01

The interoccurrence time statistics of seismiciry is studied theoretically as well as numerically by taking into account the conditional probability and the correlations among many earthquakes in different magnitude levels. It is known so far that the interoccurrence time statistics is well approximated by the Weibull distribution, but the more detailed information about the interoccurrence times can be obtained from the analysis of the conditional probability. Firstly, we propose the Embedding Equation Theory (EET), where the conditional probability is described by two kinds of correlation coefficients; one is the magnitude correlation and the other is the inter-event time correlation. Furthermore, the scaling law of each correlation coefficient is clearly determined from the numerical data-analysis carrying out with the Preliminary Determination of Epicenter (PDE) Catalog and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Catalog. Secondly, the EET is examined to derive the magnitude dependence of the interoccurrence time statistics and the multi-fractal relation is successfully formulated. Theoretically we cannot prove the universality of the multi-fractal relation in seismic activity; nevertheless, the theoretical results well reproduce all numerical data in our analysis, where several common features or the invariant aspects are clearly observed. Especially in the case of stationary ensembles the multi-fractal relation seems to obey an invariant curve, furthermore in the case of non-stationary (moving time) ensembles for the aftershock regime the multi-fractal relation seems to satisfy a certain invariant curve at any moving times. It is emphasized that the multi-fractal relation plays an important role to unify the statistical laws of seismicity: actually the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Weibull distribution are unified in the multi-fractal relation, and some universality conjectures regarding the seismicity are briefly discussed.

A finite mixture of two Weibull distributions for modeling the diameter distributions of rotated-sigmoid, uneven-aged stands

Treesearch

Lianjun Zhang; Jeffrey H. Gove; Chuangmin Liu; William B. Leak

2001-01-01

The rotated-sigmoid form is a characteristic of old-growth, uneven-aged forest stands caused by past disturbances such as cutting, fire, disease, and insect attacks. The diameter frequency distribution of the rotated-sigmoid form is bimodal with the second rounded peak in the midsized classes, rather than a smooth, steeply descending, monotonic curve. In this study a...

Generalized extreme gust wind speeds distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, E.; Yeung, C.

2002-01-01

Since summer 1996, the US wind engineers are using the extreme gust (or 3-s gust) as the basic wind speed to quantify the destruction of extreme winds. In order to better understand these destructive wind forces, it is important to know the appropriate representations of these extreme gust wind speeds. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to determine the most suitable extreme value distributions for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded in large selected areas. To achieve this objective, we are using the generalized Pareto distribution as the diagnostic tool for determining the types of extreme gust wind speed distributions. The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution function is, thus, reduced to either Type I Gumbel, Type II Frechet or Type III reverse Weibull distribution function for the annual extreme gust wind speeds recorded at a specific site.With the considerations of the quality and homogeneity of gust wind data collected at more than 750 weather stations throughout the United States, annual extreme gust wind speeds at selected 143 stations in the contiguous United States were used in the study. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between Defect Size and Fatigue Life Distributions in Al-7 Pct Si-Mg Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiryakioğlu, Murat

2009-07-01

A new method for predicting the variability in fatigue life of castings was developed by combining the size distribution for the fatigue-initiating defects and a fatigue life model based on the Paris-Erdoğan law for crack propagation. Two datasets for the fatigue-initiating defects in Al-7 pct Si-Mg alloy castings, reported previously in the literature, were used to demonstrate that (1) the size of fatigue-initiating defects follow the Gumbel distribution; (2) the crack propagation model developed previously provides respectable fits to experimental data; and (3) the method developed in the present study expresses the variability in both datasets, almost as well as the lognormal distribution and better than the Weibull distribution.

A Monte Carlo Risk Analysis of Life Cycle Cost Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

process which occurs with each FLU failure. With this in mind there is no alternative other than the binomial distribution. 24 GOR/SM/75D-6 With all of...Weibull distribution of failures as selected by user. For each failure of the ith FLU, the model then samples from the binomial distribution to deter- mine...which is sampled from the binomial . Neither of the two conditions for normality are met, i.e., that RTS Ie close to .5 and the number of samples close

Characteristics of service requests and service processes of fire and rescue service dispatch centers: analysis of real world data and the underlying probability distributions.

PubMed

Krueger, Ute; Schimmelpfeng, Katja

2013-03-01

A sufficient staffing level in fire and rescue dispatch centers is crucial for saving lives. Therefore, it is important to estimate the expected workload properly. For this purpose, we analyzed whether a dispatch center can be considered as a call center. Current call center publications very often model call arrivals as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. This bases on the underlying assumption of the caller's independent decision to call or not to call. In case of an emergency, however, there are often calls from more than one person reporting the same incident and thus, these calls are not independent. Therefore, this paper focuses on the dependency of calls in a fire and rescue dispatch center. We analyzed and evaluated several distributions in this setting. Results are illustrated using real-world data collected from a typical German dispatch center in Cottbus ("Leitstelle Lausitz"). We identified the Pólya distribution as being superior to the Poisson distribution in describing the call arrival rate and the Weibull distribution to be more suitable than the exponential distribution for interarrival times and service times. However, the commonly used distributions offer acceptable approximations. This is important for estimating a sufficient staffing level in practice using, e.g., the Erlang-C model.

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Moment and maximum likelihood estimators for Weibull distributions under length- and area-biased sampling

Treesearch

Jeffrey H. Gove

2003-01-01

Many of the most popular sampling schemes used in forestry are probability proportional to size methods. These methods are also referred to as size biased because sampling is actually from a weighted form of the underlying population distribution. Length- and area-biased sampling are special cases of size-biased sampling where the probability weighting comes from a...

Strain-controlled fatigue of acrylic bone cement.

PubMed

Carter, D R; Gates, E I; Harris, W H

1982-09-01

Monotonic tensile tests and tension-compression fatigue tests were conducted of wet acrylic bone cement specimens at 37 degrees C. All testing was conducted in strain control at a strain rate of 0.02/s. Weibull analysis of the tensile tests indicated that monotonic fracture was governed more strongly by strain than stress. The number of cycles to fatigue failure was also more strongly controlled by strain amplitude than stress amplitude. Specimen porosity distribution played a major role in determining the tensile and fatigue strengths. The degree of data scatter suggests that Weibull analysis of fatigue data may be useful in developing design criteria for the surgical use of bone cement.

Impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the performance of a relay-assisted free-space optical communication system over exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian; Fu, Huihua; Wang, Ranran; Guo, Lixin

2016-09-20

The impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the system performance of decode-and-forward protocol-based multihop parallel optical wireless communication systems is studied. For the aggregated fading channel, the atmospheric turbulence is simulated by an exponentiated Weibull model, and pointing errors are described by one recently proposed statistical model including both boresight and jitter. The binary phase-shift keying subcarrier intensity modulation-based analytical average bit error rate (ABER) and outage probability expressions are achieved for a nonidentically and independently distributed system. The ABER and outage probability are then analyzed with different turbulence strengths, receiving aperture sizes, structure parameters (P and Q), jitter variances, and boresight displacements. The results show that aperture averaging offers almost the same system performance improvement with boresight included or not, despite the values of P and Q. The performance enhancement owing to the increase of cooperative path (P) is more evident with nonzero boresight than that with zero boresight (jitter only), whereas the performance deterioration because of the increasing hops (Q) with nonzero boresight is almost the same as that with zero boresight. Monte Carlo simulation is offered to verify the validity of ABER and outage probability expressions.

Distributed and Collaborative Software Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghezzi, Giacomo; Gall, Harald C.

Throughout the years software engineers have come up with a myriad of specialized tools and techniques that focus on a certain type of software analysissoftware analysis such as source code analysis, co-change analysis or bug prediction. However, easy and straight forward synergies between these analyses and tools rarely exist because of their stand-alone nature, their platform dependence, their different input and output formats and the variety of data to analyze. As a consequence, distributed and collaborative software analysiscollaborative software analysis scenarios and in particular interoperability are severely limited. We describe a distributed and collaborative software analysis platform that allows for a seamless interoperability of software analysis tools across platform, geographical and organizational boundaries. We realize software analysis tools as services that can be accessed and composed over the Internet. These distributed analysis services shall be widely accessible in our incrementally augmented Software Analysis Broker software analysis broker where organizations and tool providers can register and share their tools. To allow (semi-) automatic use and composition of these tools, they are classified and mapped into a software analysis taxonomy and adhere to specific meta-models and ontologiesontologies for their category of analysis.

Computer routines for probability distributions, random numbers, and related functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, W.

1983-01-01

Use of previously coded and tested subroutines simplifies and speeds up program development and testing. This report presents routines that can be used to calculate various probability distributions and other functions of importance in statistical hydrology. The routines are designed as general-purpose Fortran subroutines and functions to be called from user-written main progress. The probability distributions provided include the beta, chi-square, gamma, Gaussian (normal), Pearson Type III (tables and approximation), and Weibull. Also provided are the distributions of the Grubbs-Beck outlier test, Kolmogorov 's and Smirnov 's D, Student 's t, noncentral t (approximate), and Snedecor F. Other mathematical functions include the Bessel function, I sub o, gamma and log-gamma functions, error functions, and exponential integral. Auxiliary services include sorting and printer-plotting. Random number generators for uniform and normal numbers are provided and may be used with some of the above routines to generate numbers from other distributions. (USGS)

Computer routines for probability distributions, random numbers, and related functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, W.H.

1980-01-01

Use of previously codes and tested subroutines simplifies and speeds up program development and testing. This report presents routines that can be used to calculate various probability distributions and other functions of importance in statistical hydrology. The routines are designed as general-purpose Fortran subroutines and functions to be called from user-written main programs. The probability distributions provided include the beta, chisquare, gamma, Gaussian (normal), Pearson Type III (tables and approximation), and Weibull. Also provided are the distributions of the Grubbs-Beck outlier test, Kolmogorov 's and Smirnov 's D, Student 's t, noncentral t (approximate), and Snedecor F tests. Other mathematical functions include the Bessel function I (subzero), gamma and log-gamma functions, error functions and exponential integral. Auxiliary services include sorting and printer plotting. Random number generators for uniform and normal numbers are provided and may be used with some of the above routines to generate numbers from other distributions. (USGS)

Hazard function analysis for flood planning under nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-05-01

The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) involves a probabilistic assessment of the "time to failure" or "return period," T, of an event of interest. HFA is used in epidemiology, manufacturing, medicine, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. For a stationary process, the probability distribution function (pdf) of the return period always follows an exponential distribution, the same is not true for nonstationary processes. When the process of interest, X, exhibits nonstationary behavior, HFA can provide a complementary approach to risk analysis with analytical tools particularly useful for hydrological applications. After a general introduction to HFA, we describe a new mathematical linkage between the magnitude of the flood event, X, and its return period, T, for nonstationary processes. We derive the probabilistic properties of T for a nonstationary one-parameter exponential model of X, and then use both Monte-Carlo simulation and HFA to generalize the behavior of T when X arises from a nonstationary two-parameter lognormal distribution. For this case, our findings suggest that a two-parameter Weibull distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the pdf of T. We document how HFA can provide an alternative approach to characterize the probabilistic properties of both nonstationary flood series and the resulting pdf of T.

[Analysis of Time-to-onset of Interstitial Lung Disease after the Administration of Small Molecule Molecularly-targeted Drugs].

PubMed

Komada, Fusao

2018-01-01

　The aim of this study was to investigate the time-to-onset of drug-induced interstitial lung disease (DILD) following the administration of small molecule molecularly-targeted drugs via the use of the spontaneous adverse reaction reporting system of the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database. DILD datasets for afatinib, alectinib, bortezomib, crizotinib, dasatinib, erlotinib, everolimus, gefitinib, imatinib, lapatinib, nilotinib, osimertinib, sorafenib, sunitinib, temsirolimus, and tofacitinib were used to calculate the median onset times of DILD and the Weibull distribution parameters, and to perform the hierarchical cluster analysis. The median onset times of DILD for afatinib, bortezomib, crizotinib, erlotinib, gefitinib, and nilotinib were within one month. The median onset times of DILD for dasatinib, everolimus, lapatinib, osimertinib, and temsirolimus ranged from 1 to 2 months. The median onset times of the DILD for alectinib, imatinib, and tofacitinib ranged from 2 to 3 months. The median onset times of the DILD for sunitinib and sorafenib ranged from 8 to 9 months. Weibull distributions for these drugs when using the cluster analysis showed that there were 4 clusters. Cluster 1 described a subgroup with early to later onset DILD and early failure type profiles or a random failure type profile. Cluster 2 exhibited early failure type profiles or a random failure type profile with early onset DILD. Cluster 3 exhibited a random failure type profile or wear out failure type profiles with later onset DILD. Cluster 4 exhibited an early failure type profile or a random failure type profile with the latest onset DILD.

Statistical Analysis on the Mechanical Properties of Magnesium Alloys

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruoyu; Jiang, Xianquan; Zhang, Hongju; Zhang, Dingfei; Wang, Jingfeng; Pan, Fusheng

2017-01-01

Knowledge of statistical characteristics of mechanical properties is very important for the practical application of structural materials. Unfortunately, the scatter characteristics of magnesium alloys for mechanical performance remain poorly understood until now. In this study, the mechanical reliability of magnesium alloys is systematically estimated using Weibull statistical analysis. Interestingly, the Weibull modulus, m, of strength for magnesium alloys is as high as that for aluminum and steels, confirming the very high reliability of magnesium alloys. The high predictability in the tensile strength of magnesium alloys represents the capability of preventing catastrophic premature failure during service, which is essential for safety and reliability assessment. PMID:29113116

Empirical model based on Weibull distribution describing the destruction kinetics of natural microbiota in pineapple (Ananas comosus L.) puree during high-pressure processing.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Snehasis; Rao, Pavuluri Srinivasa; Mishra, Hari Niwas

2015-10-15

High pressure inactivation of natural microbiota viz. aerobic mesophiles (AM), psychrotrophs (PC), yeasts and molds (YM), total coliforms (TC) and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in pineapple puree was studied within the experimental domain of 0.1-600 MPa and 30-50 °C with a treatment time up to 20 min. A complete destruction of yeasts and molds was obtained at 500 MPa/50 °C/15 min; whereas no counts were detected for TC and LAB at 300 MPa/30 °C/15 min. A maximum of two log cycle reductions was obtained for YM during pulse pressurization at the severe process intensity of 600 MPa/50 °C/20 min. The Weibull model clearly described the non-linearity of the survival curves during the isobaric period. The tailing effect, as confirmed by the shape parameter (β) of the survival curve, was obtained in case of YM (β<1); whereas a shouldering effect (β>1) was observed for the other microbial groups. Analogous to thermal death kinetics, the activation energy (Ea, kJ·mol(-1)) and the activation volume (Va, mL·mol(-1)) values were computed further to describe the temperature and pressure dependencies of the scale parameter (δ, min), respectively. A higher δ value was obtained for each microbe at a lower temperature and it decreased with an increase in pressure. A secondary kinetic model was developed describing the inactivation rate (k, min(-1)) as a function of pressure (P, MPa) and temperature (T, K) including the dependencies of Ea and Va on P and T, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The probability distribution model of air pollution index and its dominants in Kuala Lumpur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Dhurafi, Nasr Ahmed; Razali, Ahmad Mahir; Masseran, Nurulkamal; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2016-11-01

This paper focuses on the statistical modeling for the distributions of air pollution index (API) and its sub-indexes data observed at Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. Five pollutants or sub-indexes are measured including, carbon monoxide (CO); sulphur dioxide (SO2); nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and; particulate matter (PM10). Four probability distributions are considered, namely log-normal, exponential, Gamma and Weibull in search for the best fit distribution to the Malaysian air pollutants data. In order to determine the best distribution for describing the air pollutants data, five goodness-of-fit criteria's are applied. This will help in minimizing the uncertainty in pollution resource estimates and improving the assessment phase of planning. The conflict in criterion results for selecting the best distribution was overcome by using the weight of ranks method. We found that the Gamma distribution is the best distribution for the majority of air pollutants data in Kuala Lumpur.

Determination of the Mechanical Properties of Plasma-Sprayed Hydroxyapatite Coatings Using the Knoop Indentation Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Fahad; Wang, James; Berndt, Christopher

2015-06-01

The microhardness and elastic modulus of plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite coatings were evaluated using Knoop indentation on the cross section and on the top surface. The effects of indentation angle, testing direction, measurement location and applied load on the microhardness and elastic modulus were investigated. The variability and distribution of the microhardness and elastic modulus data were statistically analysed using the Weibull modulus distribution. The results indicate that the dependence of microhardness and elastic modulus on the indentation angle exhibits a parabolic shape. Dependence of the microhardness values on the indentation angle follows Pythagoras's theorem. The microhardness, Weibull modulus of microhardness and Weibull modulus of elastic modulus reach their maximum at the central position (175 µm) on the cross section of the coatings. The Weibull modulus of microhardness revealed similar values throughout the thickness, and the Weibull modulus of elastic modulus shows higher values on the top surface compared to the cross section.

Probability Analysis of the Wave-Slamming Pressure Values of the Horizontal Deck with Elastic Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Weiguang; Liu, Ming; Fan, Tianhui; Wang, Pengtao

2018-06-01

This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, Gerd M.; Omotoso, Oluseun; Chen, Guangming; Evans, John W.

2012-01-01

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

What are the Shapes of Response Time Distributions in Visual Search?

PubMed Central

Palmer, Evan M.; Horowitz, Todd S.; Torralba, Antonio; Wolfe, Jeremy M.

2011-01-01

Many visual search experiments measure reaction time (RT) as their primary dependent variable. Analyses typically focus on mean (or median) RT. However, given enough data, the RT distribution can be a rich source of information. For this paper, we collected about 500 trials per cell per observer for both target-present and target-absent displays in each of three classic search tasks: feature search, with the target defined by color; conjunction search, with the target defined by both color and orientation; and spatial configuration search for a 2 among distractor 5s. This large data set allows us to characterize the RT distributions in detail. We present the raw RT distributions and fit several psychologically motivated functions (ex-Gaussian, ex-Wald, Gamma, and Weibull) to the data. We analyze and interpret parameter trends from these four functions within the context of theories of visual search. PMID:21090905

Cluster analysis for determining distribution center location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestari Widaningrum, Dyah; Andika, Aditya; Murphiyanto, Richard Dimas Julian

2017-12-01

Determination of distribution facilities is highly important to survive in the high level of competition in today’s business world. Companies can operate multiple distribution centers to mitigate supply chain risk. Thus, new problems arise, namely how many and where the facilities should be provided. This study examines a fast-food restaurant brand, which located in the Greater Jakarta. This brand is included in the category of top 5 fast food restaurant chain based on retail sales. There were three stages in this study, compiling spatial data, cluster analysis, and network analysis. Cluster analysis results are used to consider the location of the additional distribution center. Network analysis results show a more efficient process referring to a shorter distance to the distribution process.

Response of SiC{sub f}/Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} composites under static and cyclic loading -- An experimental and statistical analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahfuz, H.; Maniruzzaman, M.; Vaidya, U.

1997-04-01

Monotonic tensile and fatigue response of continuous silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon nitride (SiC{sub f}/Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) composites has been investigated. The monotonic tensile tests have been performed at room and elevated temperatures. Fatigue tests have been conducted at room temperature (RT), at a stress ratio, R = 0.1 and a frequency of 5 Hz. It is observed during the monotonic tests that the composites retain only 30% of its room temperature strength at 1,600 C suggesting a substantial chemical degradation of the matrix at that temperature. The softening of the matrix at elevated temperature also causes reduction in tensilemore » modulus, and the total reduction in modulus is around 45%. Fatigue data have been generated at three load levels and the fatigue strength of the composite has been found to be considerably high; about 75% of its ultimate room temperature strength. Extensive statistical analysis has been performed to understand the degree of scatter in the fatigue as well as in the static test data. Weibull shape factors and characteristic values have been determined for each set of tests and their relationship with the response of the composites has been discussed. A statistical fatigue life prediction method developed from the Weibull distribution is also presented. Maximum Likelihood Estimator with censoring techniques and data pooling schemes has been employed to determine the distribution parameters for the statistical analysis. These parameters have been used to generate the S-N diagram with desired level of reliability. Details of the statistical analysis and the discussion of the static and fatigue behavior of the composites are presented in this paper.« less

Prediction of Mean and Design Fatigue Lives of Self Compacting Concrete Beams in Flexure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, S.; Singh, S. P.; Singh, P.; Kaushik, S. K.

2012-02-01

In this paper, result of an investigation conducted to study the flexural fatigue characteristics of self compacting concrete (SCC) beams in flexure are presented. An experimental programme was planned in which approximately 60 SCC beam specimens of size 100 × 100 × 500 mm were tested under flexural fatigue loading. Approximately 45 static flexural tests were also conducted to facilitate fatigue testing. The flexural fatigue and static flexural strength tests were conducted on a 100 kN servo-controlled actuator. The fatigue life data thus obtained have been used to establish the probability distributions of fatigue life of SCC using two-parameter Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull distribution have been obtained by different methods of analysis. Using the distribution parameters, the mean and design fatigue lives of SCC have been estimated and compared with Normally vibrated concrete (NVC), the data for which have been taken from literature. It has been observed that SCC exhibits higher mean and design fatigue lives compared to NVC.

Estimating the Distribution of the Incubation Periods of Human Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections.

PubMed

Virlogeux, Victor; Li, Ming; Tsang, Tim K; Feng, Luzhao; Fang, Vicky J; Jiang, Hui; Wu, Peng; Zheng, Jiandong; Lau, Eric H Y; Cao, Yu; Qin, Ying; Liao, Qiaohong; Yu, Hongjie; Cowling, Benjamin J

2015-10-15

A novel avian influenza virus, influenza A(H7N9), emerged in China in early 2013 and caused severe disease in humans, with infections occurring most frequently after recent exposure to live poultry. The distribution of A(H7N9) incubation periods is of interest to epidemiologists and public health officials, but estimation of the distribution is complicated by interval censoring of exposures. Imputation of the midpoint of intervals was used in some early studies, resulting in estimated mean incubation times of approximately 5 days. In this study, we estimated the incubation period distribution of human influenza A(H7N9) infections using exposure data available for 229 patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) infection from mainland China. A nonparametric model (Turnbull) and several parametric models accounting for the interval censoring in some exposures were fitted to the data. For the best-fitting parametric model (Weibull), the mean incubation period was 3.4 days (95% confidence interval: 3.0, 3.7) and the variance was 2.9 days; results were very similar for the nonparametric Turnbull estimate. Under the Weibull model, the 95th percentile of the incubation period distribution was 6.5 days (95% confidence interval: 5.9, 7.1). The midpoint approximation for interval-censored exposures led to overestimation of the mean incubation period. Public health observation of potentially exposed persons for 7 days after exposure would be appropriate. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Recalcitrant vulnerability curves: methods of analysis and the concept of fibre bridges for enhanced cavitation resistance.

PubMed

Cai, Jing; Li, Shan; Zhang, Haixin; Zhang, Shuoxin; Tyree, Melvin T

2014-01-01

Vulnerability curves (VCs) generally can be fitted to the Weibull equation; however, a growing number of VCs appear to be recalcitrant, that is, deviate from a Weibull but seem to fit dual Weibull curves. We hypothesize that dual Weibull curves in Hippophae rhamnoides L. are due to different vessel diameter classes, inter-vessel hydraulic connections or vessels versus fibre tracheids. We used dye staining techniques, hydraulic measurements and quantitative anatomy measurements to test these hypotheses. The fibres contribute 1.3% of the total stem conductivity, which eliminates the hypothesis that fibre tracheids account for the second Weibull curve. Nevertheless, the staining pattern of vessels and fibre tracheids suggested that fibres might function as a hydraulic bridge between adjacent vessels. We also argue that fibre bridges are safer than vessel-to-vessel pits and put forward the concept as a new paradigm. Hence, we tentatively propose that the first Weibull curve may be accounted by vessels connected to each other directly by pit fields, while the second Weibull curve is associated with vessels that are connected almost exclusively by fibre bridges. Further research is needed to test the concept of fibre bridge safety in species that have recalcitrant or normal Weibull curves. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Distributed data analysis in ATLAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Paul; Atlas Collaboration

2012-12-01

Data analysis using grid resources is one of the fundamental challenges to be addressed before the start of LHC data taking. The ATLAS detector will produce petabytes of data per year, and roughly one thousand users will need to run physics analyses on this data. Appropriate user interfaces and helper applications have been made available to ensure that the grid resources can be used without requiring expertise in grid technology. These tools enlarge the number of grid users from a few production administrators to potentially all participating physicists. ATLAS makes use of three grid infrastructures for the distributed analysis: the EGEE sites, the Open Science Grid, and Nordu Grid. These grids are managed by the gLite workload management system, the PanDA workload management system, and ARC middleware; many sites can be accessed via both the gLite WMS and PanDA. Users can choose between two front-end tools to access the distributed resources. Ganga is a tool co-developed with LHCb to provide a common interface to the multitude of execution backends (local, batch, and grid). The PanDA workload management system provides a set of utilities called PanDA Client; with these tools users can easily submit Athena analysis jobs to the PanDA-managed resources. Distributed data is managed by Don Quixote 2, a system developed by ATLAS; DQ2 is used to replicate datasets according to the data distribution policies and maintains a central catalog of file locations. The operation of the grid resources is continually monitored by the Ganga Robot functional testing system, and infrequent site stress tests are performed using the Hammer Cloud system. In addition, the DAST shift team is a group of power users who take shifts to provide distributed analysis user support; this team has effectively relieved the burden of support from the developers.

On the performance of dual-hop mixed RF/FSO wireless communication system in urban area over aggregated exponentiated Weibull fading channels with pointing errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yue; Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian

2018-03-01

The performance of decode-and-forward dual-hop mixed radio frequency / free-space optical system in urban area is studied. The RF link is modeled by the Nakagami-m distribution and the FSO link is described by the composite exponentiated Weibull (EW) fading channels with nonzero boresight pointing errors (NBPE). For comparison, the ABER results without pointing errors (PE) and those with zero boresight pointing errors (ZBPE) are also provided. The closed-form expression for the average bit error rate (ABER) in RF link is derived with the help of hypergeometric function, and that in FSO link is obtained by Meijer's G and generalized Gauss-Laguerre quadrature functions. Then, the end-to-end ABERs with binary phase shift keying modulation are achieved on the basis of the computed ABER results of RF and FSO links. The end-to-end ABER performance is further analyzed with different Nakagami-m parameters, turbulence strengths, receiver aperture sizes and boresight displacements. The result shows that with ZBPE and NBPE considered, FSO link suffers a severe ABER degradation and becomes the dominant limitation of the mixed RF/FSO system in urban area. However, aperture averaging can bring significant ABER improvement of this system. Monte Carlo simulation is provided to confirm the validity of the analytical ABER expressions.

A FORTRAN program for multivariate survival analysis on the personal computer.

PubMed

Mulder, P G

1988-01-01

In this paper a FORTRAN program is presented for multivariate survival or life table regression analysis in a competing risks' situation. The relevant failure rate (for example, a particular disease or mortality rate) is modelled as a log-linear function of a vector of (possibly time-dependent) explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may also include the variable time itself, which is useful for parameterizing piecewise exponential time-to-failure distributions in a Gompertz-like or Weibull-like way as a more efficient alternative to Cox's proportional hazards model. Maximum likelihood estimates of the coefficients of the log-linear relationship are obtained from the iterative Newton-Raphson method. The program runs on a personal computer under DOS; running time is quite acceptable, even for large samples.

Reliability and availability analysis of a 10 kW@20 K helium refrigerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Xiong, L. Y.; Liu, L. Q.; Wang, H. R.; Wang, B. M.

2017-02-01

A 10 kW@20 K helium refrigerator has been established in the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences. To evaluate and improve this refrigerator’s reliability and availability, a reliability and availability analysis is performed. According to the mission profile of this refrigerator, a functional analysis is performed. The failure data of the refrigerator components are collected and failure rate distributions are fitted by software Weibull++ V10.0. A Failure Modes, Effects & Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is performed and the critical components with higher risks are pointed out. Software BlockSim V9.0 is used to calculate the reliability and the availability of this refrigerator. The result indicates that compressors, turbine and vacuum pump are the critical components and the key units of this refrigerator. The mitigation actions with respect to design, testing, maintenance and operation are proposed to decrease those major and medium risks.

Probabilistic structural analysis of a truss typical for space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.

1990-01-01

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated using the computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) to identify and quantify the uncertainties and respective sensitivities associated with corresponding uncertainties in the primitive variables (structural, material, and loads parameters) that defines the truss. The distribution of each of these primitive variables is described in terms of one of several available distributions such as the Weibull, exponential, normal, log-normal, etc. The cumulative distribution function (CDF's) for the response functions considered and sensitivities associated with the primitive variables for given response are investigated. These sensitivities help in determining the dominating primitive variables for that response.

The Effect of Roughness Model on Scattering Properties of Ice Crystals.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan

2016-01-01

We compare stochastic models of microscale surface roughness assuming uniform and Weibull distributions of crystal facet tilt angles to calculate scattering by roughened hexagonal ice crystals using the geometric optics (GO) approximation. Both distributions are determined by similar roughness parameters, while the Weibull model depends on the additional shape parameter. Calculations were performed for two visible wavelengths (864 nm and 410 nm) for roughness values between 0.2 and 0.7 and Weibull shape parameters between 0 and 1.0 for crystals with aspect ratios of 0.21, 1 and 4.8. For this range of parameters we find that, for a given roughness level, varying the Weibull shape parameter can change the asymmetry parameter by up to about 0.05. The largest effect of the shape parameter variation on the phase function is found in the backscattering region, while the degree of linear polarization is most affected at the side-scattering angles. For high roughness, scattering properties calculated using the uniform and Weibull models are in relatively close agreement for a given roughness parameter, especially when a Weibull shape parameter of 0.75 is used. For smaller roughness values, a shape parameter close to unity provides a better agreement. Notable differences are observed in the phase function over the scattering angle range from 5deg to 20deg, where the uniform roughness model produces a plateau while the Weibull model does not.

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Fossum, A. F.

1990-01-01

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

A public study of the lifetime distribution of soap films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobin, S. T.; Meagher, A. J.; Bulfin, B.; Möbius, M.; Hutzler, S.

2011-08-01

We present data for the lifetime distribution of soap films made from commercial dish-washing solution and contained in sealed cylinders. Data for over 2500 films were gathered during a 2-month exhibition on the science and art of bubbles and foams in Dublin's Science Gallery. Visitors to the gallery were invited to create 10-20 parallel soap films in acrylic tubes which were sealed with cork stoppers. Individual film bursts occurred at random and were uncorrelated. The total number of remaining films in the tubes was recorded every day. Visitors could monitor the status of their soap film tube and the daily updated histogram of the lifetime of all films. The histogram of the bubble lifetimes is well described by a Weibull distribution, which indicates that the failure rate is not constant and increases over time. Unsealed cylinders show drastically reduced film lifetimes. This experiment illustrates the difference between the unpredictability of the lifetime of individual films and the existence of a well-defined lifetime distribution for the ensemble.

Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Asaria, Miqdad; Griffin, Susan; Cookson, Richard

2015-01-01

Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) is a framework for incorporating health inequality concerns into the economic evaluation of health sector interventions. In this tutorial, we describe the technical details of how to conduct DCEA, using an illustrative example comparing alternative ways of implementing the National Health Service (NHS) Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP). The 2 key stages in DCEA are 1) modeling social distributions of health associated with different interventions, and 2) evaluating social distributions of health with respect to the dual objectives of improving total population health and reducing unfair health inequality. As well as describing the technical methods used, we also identify the data requirements and the social value judgments that have to be made. Finally, we demonstrate the use of sensitivity analyses to explore the impacts of alternative modeling assumptions and social value judgments. PMID:25908564

Four Theorems on the Psychometric Function

PubMed Central

May, Keith A.; Solomon, Joshua A.

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, . This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull “slope” parameter, , can be approximated by , where is the of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for and , from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when , . We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4–0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian. PMID:24124456

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Geographic location, network patterns and population distribution of rural settlements in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asimakopoulos, Avraam; Mogios, Emmanuel; Xenikos, Dimitrios G.

2016-10-01

Our work addresses the problem of how social networks are embedded in space, by studying the spread of human population over complex geomorphological terrain. We focus on villages or small cities up to a few thousand inhabitants located in mountainous areas in Greece. This terrain presents a familiar tree-like structure of valleys and land plateaus. Cities are found more often at lower altitudes and exhibit preference on south orientation. Furthermore, the population generally avoids flat land plateaus and river beds, preferring locations slightly uphill, away from the plateau edge. Despite the location diversity regarding geomorphological parameters, we find certain quantitative norms when we examine location and population distributions relative to the (man-made) transportation network. In particular, settlements at radial distance ℓ away from road network junctions have the same mean altitude, practically independent of ℓ ranging from a few meters to 10 km. Similarly, the distribution of the settlement population at any given ℓ is the same for all ℓ. Finally, the cumulative distribution of the number of rural cities n(ℓ) is fitted to the Weibull distribution, suggesting that human decisions for creating settlements could be paralleled to mechanisms typically attributed to this particular statistical distribution.

Statistical analysis of lithium iron sulfide status cell cycle life and failure mode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.; Battles, J.E.; Miller, W.E.

1983-08-01

A statistical model was developed for life cycle testing of electrochemical cell life cycle trials and verified experimentally. The Weibull distribution was selected to predict the end of life for a cell, based on a 20 percent loss of initial stabilized capacity or a decrease to less than 95 percent coulombic efficiency. Groups of 12 or more Li-alloy/FeS cells were cycled to determine the mean time to failure (MTTF) and also to identify the failure modes. The cells were all full size electric vehicle batteries with 150-350 A-hr capacity. The Weibull shape factors were determined and verified in prediction ofmore » the number of cell failures in two 10 cell modules. The short circuit failure in the cells with BN-felt and MgO powder separators were found to be caused by the formation of Li-Al protrusions that penetrated the BN-felt separators, and the extrusion of active material at the edge of the electrodes.« less

Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Adam

2015-01-01

During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

Statistical theory on the analytical form of cloud particle size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wei; McFarquhar, Greg

2017-11-01

Several analytical forms of cloud particle size distributions (PSDs) have been used in numerical modeling and remote sensing retrieval studies of clouds and precipitation, including exponential, gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions. However, there is no satisfying physical explanation as to why certain distribution forms preferentially occur instead of others. Theoretically, the analytical form of a PSD can be derived by directly solving the general dynamic equation, but no analytical solutions have been found yet. Instead of using a process level approach, the use of the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) for determining the analytical form of PSDs from the perspective of system is examined here. Here, the issue of variability under coordinate transformations that arises using the Gibbs/Shannon definition of entropy is identified, and the use of the concept of relative entropy to avoid these problems is discussed. Focusing on cloud physics, the four-parameter generalized gamma distribution is proposed as the analytical form of a PSD using the principle of maximum (relative) entropy with assumptions on power law relations between state variables, scale invariance and a further constraint on the expectation of one state variable (e.g. bulk water mass). DOE ASR.

The Age Specific Incidence Anomaly Suggests that Cancers Originate During Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brody, James P.

The accumulation of genetic alterations causes cancers. Since this accumulation takes time, the incidence of most cancers is thought to increase exponentially with age. However, careful measurements of the age-specific incidence show that the specific incidence for many forms of cancer rises with age to a maximum, and then decreases. This decrease in the age-specific incidence with age is an anomaly. Understanding this anomaly should lead to a better understanding of how tumors develop and grow. Here we derive the shape of the age-specific incidence, showing that it should follow the shape of a Weibull distribution. Measurements indicate that the age-specific incidence for colon cancer does indeed follow a Weibull distribution. This analysis leads to the interpretation that for colon cancer two subpopulations exist in the general population: a susceptible population and an immune population. Colon tumors will only occur in the susceptible population. This analysis is consistent with the developmental origins of disease hypothesis and generalizable to many other common forms of cancer.

Entropy-based derivation of generalized distributions for hydrometeorological frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lu; Singh, Vijay P.

2018-02-01

Frequency analysis of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes is needed for the design of hydraulic and civil infrastructure facilities as well as water resources management. A multitude of distributions have been employed for frequency analysis of these extremes. However, no single distribution has been accepted as a global standard. Employing the entropy theory, this study derived five generalized distributions for frequency analysis that used different kinds of information encoded as constraints. These distributions were the generalized gamma (GG), the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2), and the Halphen type A distribution (Hal-A), Halphen type B distribution (Hal-B) and Halphen type inverse B distribution (Hal-IB), among which the GG and GB2 distribution were previously derived by Papalexiou and Koutsoyiannis (2012) and the Halphen family was first derived using entropy theory in this paper. The entropy theory allowed to estimate parameters of the distributions in terms of the constraints used for their derivation. The distributions were tested using extreme daily and hourly rainfall data. Results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) values were very small, which indicated that the five generalized distributions fitted the extreme rainfall data well. Among them, according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values, generally the GB2 and Halphen family gave a better fit. Therefore, those general distributions are one of the best choices for frequency analysis. The entropy-based derivation led to a new way for frequency analysis of hydrometeorological extremes.

A two-scale Weibull approach to the failure of porous ceramic structures made by robocasting: possibilities and limits

PubMed Central

Genet, Martin; Houmard, Manuel; Eslava, Salvador; Saiz, Eduardo; Tomsia, Antoni P.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces our approach to modeling the mechanical behavior of cellular ceramics, through the example of calcium phosphate scaffolds made by robocasting for bone-tissue engineering. The Weibull theory is used to deal with the scaffolds’ constitutive rods statistical failure, and the Sanchez-Palencia theory of periodic homogenization is used to link the rod- and scaffold-scales. Uniaxial compression of scaffolds and three-point bending of rods were performed to calibrate and validate the model. If calibration based on rod-scale data leads to over-conservative predictions of scaffold’s properties (as rods’ successive failures are not taken into account), we show that, for a given rod diameter, calibration based on scaffold-scale data leads to very satisfactory predictions for a wide range of rod spacing, i.e. of scaffold porosity, as well as for different loading conditions. This work establishes the proposed model as a reliable tool for understanding and optimizing cellular ceramics’ mechanical properties. PMID:23439936

A Comparison of Distribution Free and Non-Distribution Free Factor Analysis Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ritter, Nicola L.

2012-01-01

Many researchers recognize that factor analysis can be conducted on both correlation matrices and variance-covariance matrices. Although most researchers extract factors from non-distribution free or parametric methods, researchers can also extract factors from distribution free or non-parametric methods. The nature of the data dictates the method…

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bast, Callie C.; Jurena, Mark T.; Godines, Cody R.; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in

Probability distribution functions for unit hydrographs with optimization using genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Singh, Vijay P.; Sivakumar, Bellie; H. Kashani, Mahsa; Atre, Atul Arvind; Asadi, Hakimeh

2017-05-01

A unit hydrograph (UH) of a watershed may be viewed as the unit pulse response function of a linear system. In recent years, the use of probability distribution functions (pdfs) for determining a UH has received much attention. In this study, a nonlinear optimization model is developed to transmute a UH into a pdf. The potential of six popular pdfs, namely two-parameter gamma, two-parameter Gumbel, two-parameter log-normal, two-parameter normal, three-parameter Pearson distribution, and two-parameter Weibull is tested on data from the Lighvan catchment in Iran. The probability distribution parameters are determined using the nonlinear least squares optimization method in two ways: (1) optimization by programming in Mathematica; and (2) optimization by applying genetic algorithm. The results are compared with those obtained by the traditional linear least squares method. The results show comparable capability and performance of two nonlinear methods. The gamma and Pearson distributions are the most successful models in preserving the rising and recession limbs of the unit hydographs. The log-normal distribution has a high ability in predicting both the peak flow and time to peak of the unit hydrograph. The nonlinear optimization method does not outperform the linear least squares method in determining the UH (especially for excess rainfall of one pulse), but is comparable.

Tensile Strength and Microstructural Characterization of Uncoated and Coated HPZ Ceramic Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.; Wheeler, Donald R.; Dickerson, Robert M.

1996-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received HPZ fiber and those surface coated with BN, BN/SiC, and BN/Si3N4 have been determined at room temperature using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Nominally approx. 0.4 micron BN and 0.2 micron SiC or Si3N4 coatings were deposited on the fibers by chemical vapor deposition using a continuous reactor. The average tensile strength of uncoated HPZ fiber was 2.0 +/- 0.56 GPa (290 +/- 81 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 4.1. For the BN coated fibers, the average strength and the Weibull modulus increased to 2.39 +/- 0.44 GPa (346 +/- 64 ksi) and 6.5, respectively. The HPZ/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 2.0 +/- 0.32 GPa (290 +/- 47 ksi) and Weibull modulus of 7.3. Average strength of the fibers having a dual BN/Si3N4 surface coating degraded to 1.15 +/- 0.26 GPa (166 +/- 38 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 5.3. The chemical composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were determined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analysis of the fibers and the coatings was carried out by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. A microporous silica-rich layer approx. 200 nm thick is present on the as-received HPZ fiber surface. The BN coatings on the fibers are amorphous to partly turbostratic and contaminated with carbon and oxygen. Silicon carbide coating was crystalline whereas the silicon nitride coating was amorphous. The silicon carbide and silicon nitride coatings are non-stoichiometric, non-uniform, and granular. Within a fiber tow, the fibers on the outside had thicker and more granular coatings than those on the inside.

On the performance evaluation of LQAM-MPPM techniques over exponentiated Weibull fading free-space optical channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khallaf, Haitham S.; Elfiqi, Abdulaziz E.; Shalaby, Hossam M. H.; Sampei, Seiichi; Obayya, Salah S. A.

2018-06-01

We investigate the performance of hybrid L-ary quadrature-amplitude modulation-multi-pulse pulse-position modulation (LQAM-MPPM) techniques over exponentiated Weibull (EW) fading free-space optical (FSO) channel, considering both weather and pointing-error effects. Upper bound and approximate-tight upper bound expressions for the bit-error rate (BER) of LQAM-MPPM techniques over EW FSO channels are obtained, taking into account the effects of fog, beam divergence, and pointing-error. Setup block diagram for both the transmitter and receiver of the LQAM-MPPM/FSO system are introduced and illustrated. The BER expressions are evaluated numerically and the results reveal that LQAM-MPPM technique outperforms ordinary LQAM and MPPM schemes under different fading levels and weather conditions. Furthermore, the effect of modulation-index is investigated and it turned out that a modulation-index greater than 0.4 is required in order to optimize the system performance. Finally, the effect of pointing-error introduces a great power penalty on the LQAM-MPPM system performance. Specifically, at a BER of 10-9, pointing-error introduces power penalties of about 45 and 28 dB for receiver aperture sizes of DR = 50 and 200 mm, respectively.

Analysis of an experiment aimed at improving the reliability of transmission centre shafts.

PubMed

Davis, T P

1995-01-01

Smith (1991) presents a paper proposing the use of Weibull regression models to establish dependence of failure data (usually times) on covariates related to the design of the test specimens and test procedures. In his article Smith made the point that good experimental design was as important in reliability applications as elsewhere, and in view of the current interest in design inspired by Taguchi and others, we pay some attention in this article to that topic. A real case study from the Ford Motor Company is presented. Our main approach is to utilize suggestions in the literature for applying standard least squares techniques of experimental analysis even when there is likely to be nonnormal error, and censoring. This approach lacks theoretical justification, but its appeal is its simplicity and flexibility. For completeness we also include some analysis based on the proportional hazards model, and in an attempt to link back to Smith (1991), look at a Weibull regression model.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erin V.

2007-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Quantification of the Water-Energy Nexus in Beijing City Based on Copula Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, J.; Cai, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resource and energy resource are intimately and highly interwoven, called ``water-energy nexus", which poses challenges for the sustainable management of water resource and energy resource. In this research, the Copula analysis method is first proposed to be applied in "water-energy nexus" field to clarify the internal relationship of water resource and energy resource, which is a favorable tool to explore the relevance among random variables. Beijing City, the capital of China, is chosen as a case study. The marginal distribution functions of water resource and energy resource are analyzed first. Then the Binary Copula function is employed to construct the joint distribution function of "water-energy nexus" to quantify the inherent relationship between water resource and energy resource. The results show that it is more appropriate to apply Lognormal distribution to establish the marginal distribution function of water resource. Meanwhile, Weibull distribution is more feasible to describe the marginal distribution function of energy resource. Furthermore, it is more suitable to adopt the Bivariate Normal Copula function to construct the joint distribution function of "water-energy nexus" in Beijing City. The findings can help to identify and quantify the "water-energy nexus". In addition, our findings can provide reasonable policy recommendations on the sustainable management of water resource and energy resource to promote regional coordinated development.

CARES - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, N. N.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings. The program uses results from a commercial structural analysis program (MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS) to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. A multiple material capability allows the finite element model reliability to be a function of many different ceramic material statistical characterizations. The reliability analysis uses element stress, temperature, area, and volume output, which are obtained from two dimensional shell and three dimensional solid isoparametric or axisymmetric finite elements. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. The shear-sensitive Batdorf model requires a user-selected flaw geometry and a mixed-mode fracture criterion. Flaws intersecting the surface and imperfections embedded in the volume can be modeled. The total strain energy release rate theory is used as a mixed mode fracture criterion for co-planar crack extension. Out-of-plane crack extension criteria are approximated by a simple equation with a semi-empirical constant that can model the maximum tangential stress theory, the minimum strain energy density criterion, the maximum strain energy release rate theory, or experimental

Abutment design for implant-supported indirect composite molar crowns: reliability and fractography.

PubMed

Bonfante, Estevam Augusto; Suzuki, Marcelo; Lubelski, William; Thompson, Van P; de Carvalho, Ricardo Marins; Witek, Lukasz; Coelho, Paulo G

2012-12-01

To investigate the reliability of titanium abutments veneered with indirect composites for implant-supported crowns and the possibility to trace back the fracture origin by qualitative fractographic analysis. Large base (LB) (6.4-mm diameter base, with a 4-mm high cone in the center for composite retention), small base (SB-4) (5.2-mm base, 4-mm high cone), and small base with cone shortened to 2 mm (SB-2) Ti abutments were used. Each abutment received incremental layers of indirect resin composite until completing the anatomy of a maxillary molar crown. Step-stress accelerated-life fatigue testing (n = 18 each) was performed in water. Weibull curves with use stress of 200 N for 50,000 and 100,000 cycles were calculated. Probability Weibull plots examined the differences between groups. Specimens were inspected in light-polarized and scanning electron microscopes for fractographic analysis. Use level probability Weibull plots showed Beta values of 0.27 for LB, 0.32 for SB-4, and 0.26 for SB-2, indicating that failures were not influenced by fatigue and damage accumulation. The data replotted as Weibull distribution showed no significant difference in the characteristic strengths between LB (794 N) and SB-4 abutments (836 N), which were both significantly higher than SB-2 (601 N). Failure mode was cohesive within the composite for all groups. Fractographic markings showed that failures initiated at the indentation area and propagated toward the margins of cohesively failed composite. Reliability was not influenced by abutment design. Qualitative fractographic analysis of the failed indirect composite was feasible. © 2012 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Study on constant-step stress accelerated life tests in white organic light-emitting diodes.

PubMed

Zhang, J P; Liu, C; Chen, X; Cheng, G L; Zhou, A X

2014-11-01

In order to obtain reliability information for a white organic light-emitting diode (OLED), two constant and one step stress tests were conducted with its working current increased. The Weibull function was applied to describe the OLED life distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and its iterative flow chart were used to calculate shape and scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation was determined using the least squares method, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to assess if the white OLED life follows a Weibull distribution, and self-developed software was used to predict the average and the median lifetimes of the OLED. The numerical results indicate that white OLED life conforms to a Weibull distribution, and that the accelerated life equation completely satisfies the inverse power law. The estimated life of a white OLED may provide significant guidelines for its manufacturers and customers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of the bracket on bonding and physical behavior of orthodontic resin cements.

PubMed

Bolaños-Carmona, Victoria; Zein, Bilal; Menéndez-Núñez, Mario; Sánchez-Sánchez, Purificación; Ceballos-García, Laura; González-López, Santiago

2015-01-01

The aim of the study is to determine the influence of the type of bracket, on bond strength, microhardness and conversion degree (CD) of four resin orthodontic cements. Micro-tensile bond strength (µTBS) test between the bracket base and the cement was carried out on glass-hour-shaped specimens (n=20). Vickers Hardness Number (VHN) and micro-Raman spectra were recorded in situ under the bracket base. Weibull distribution, ANOVA and non-parametric test were applied for data analysis (p<0.05). The highest values of ή as well as the β Weibull parameter were obtained for metallic brackets with Transbond™ plastic brackets with the self-curing cement showing the worst performance. The CD was from 80% to 62.5%.

Distribution of lod scores in oligogenic linkage analysis.

PubMed

Williams, J T; North, K E; Martin, L J; Comuzzie, A G; Göring, H H; Blangero, J

2001-01-01

In variance component oligogenic linkage analysis it can happen that the residual additive genetic variance bounds to zero when estimating the effect of the ith quantitative trait locus. Using quantitative trait Q1 from the Genetic Analysis Workshop 12 simulated general population data, we compare the observed lod scores from oligogenic linkage analysis with the empirical lod score distribution under a null model of no linkage. We find that zero residual additive genetic variance in the null model alters the usual distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic.

Analysis of meteorological droughts and dry spells in semiarid regions: a comparative analysis of probability distribution functions in the Segura Basin (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Sánchez, Julio; Senent-Aparicio, Javier

2017-08-01

Dry spells are an essential concept of drought climatology that clearly defines the semiarid Mediterranean environment and whose consequences are a defining feature for an ecosystem, so vulnerable with regard to water. The present study was conducted to characterize rainfall drought in the Segura River basin located in eastern Spain, marked by the self seasonal nature of these latitudes. A daily precipitation set has been utilized for 29 weather stations during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). Furthermore, four sets of dry spell length (complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, and annual maximum) are used and simulated for all the weather stations with the following probability distribution functions: Burr, Dagum, error, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, Gumbel Max, inverse Gaussian, Johnson SB, Log-Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Triangular, Weibull, and Wakeby. Only the series of annual maximum spell offer a good adjustment for all the weather stations, thereby gaining the role of Wakeby as the best result, with a p value means of 0.9424 for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (0.2 significance level). Probability of dry spell duration for return periods of 2, 5, 10, and 25 years maps reveal the northeast-southeast gradient, increasing periods with annual rainfall of less than 0.1 mm in the eastern third of the basin, in the proximity of the Mediterranean slope.

C-Sphere Strength-Size Scaling in a Bearing-Grade Silicon Nitride

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, Andrew A; Jadaan, Osama M.; Kirkland, Timothy Philip

2008-01-01

A C-sphere specimen geometry was used to determine the failure strength distributions of a commercially available bearing-grade silicon nitride (Si3N4) having ball diameters of 12.7 and 25.4 mm. Strengths for both diameters were determined using the combination of failure load, C sphere geometry, and finite element analysis and fitted using two-parameter Weibull distributions. Effective areas of both diameters were estimated as a function of Weibull modulus and used to explore whether the strength distributions predictably strength-scaled between each size. They did not. That statistical observation suggested that the same flaw type did not limit the strength of both ball diametersmore » indicating a lack of material homogeneity between the two sizes. Optical fractography confirmed that. It showed there were two distinct strength-limiting flaw types in both ball diameters, that one flaw type was always associated with lower strength specimens, and that significantly higher fraction of the 24.5-mm-diameter c-sphere specimens failed from it. Predictable strength-size-scaling would therefore not result as a consequence of this because these flaw types were not homogenously distributed and sampled in both c-sphere geometries.« less

An overview of engineering concepts and current design algorithms for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, S. F.; Hu, J.; Hopkins, D. A.

1995-01-01

The article begins by examining the fundamentals of traditional deterministic design philosophy. The initial section outlines the concepts of failure criteria and limit state functions two traditional notions that are embedded in deterministic design philosophy. This is followed by a discussion regarding safety factors (a possible limit state function) and the common utilization of statistical concepts in deterministic engineering design approaches. Next the fundamental aspects of a probabilistic failure analysis are explored and it is shown that deterministic design concepts mentioned in the initial portion of the article are embedded in probabilistic design methods. For components fabricated from ceramic materials (and other similarly brittle materials) the probabilistic design approach yields the widely used Weibull analysis after suitable assumptions are incorporated. The authors point out that Weibull analysis provides the rare instance where closed form solutions are available for a probabilistic failure analysis. Since numerical methods are usually required to evaluate component reliabilities, a section on Monte Carlo methods is included to introduce the concept. The article concludes with a presentation of the technical aspects that support the numerical method known as fast probability integration (FPI). This includes a discussion of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler approximations.

Choice of time-scale in Cox's model analysis of epidemiologic cohort data: a simulation study.

PubMed

Thiébaut, Anne C M; Bénichou, Jacques

2004-12-30

Cox's regression model is widely used for assessing associations between potential risk factors and disease occurrence in epidemiologic cohort studies. Although age is often a strong determinant of disease risk, authors have frequently used time-on-study instead of age as the time-scale, as for clinical trials. Unless the baseline hazard is an exponential function of age, this approach can yield different estimates of relative hazards than using age as the time-scale, even when age is adjusted for. We performed a simulation study in order to investigate the existence and magnitude of bias for different degrees of association between age and the covariate of interest. Age to disease onset was generated from exponential, Weibull or piecewise Weibull distributions, and both fixed and time-dependent dichotomous covariates were considered. We observed no bias upon using age as the time-scale. Upon using time-on-study, we verified the absence of bias for exponentially distributed age to disease onset. For non-exponential distributions, we found that bias could occur even when the covariate of interest was independent from age. It could be severe in case of substantial association with age, especially with time-dependent covariates. These findings were illustrated on data from a cohort of 84,329 French women followed prospectively for breast cancer occurrence. In view of our results, we strongly recommend not using time-on-study as the time-scale for analysing epidemiologic cohort data. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Healthcare Facilities in Nanjing: Network Point Pattern Analysis and Correlation Analysis.

PubMed

Ni, Jianhua; Qian, Tianlu; Xi, Changbai; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen

2016-08-18

The spatial distribution of urban service facilities is largely constrained by the road network. In this study, network point pattern analysis and correlation analysis were used to analyze the relationship between road network and healthcare facility distribution. The weighted network kernel density estimation method proposed in this study identifies significant differences between the outside and inside areas of the Ming city wall. The results of network K-function analysis show that private hospitals are more evenly distributed than public hospitals, and pharmacy stores tend to cluster around hospitals along the road network. After computing the correlation analysis between different categorized hospitals and street centrality, we find that the distribution of these hospitals correlates highly with the street centralities, and that the correlations are higher with private and small hospitals than with public and large hospitals. The comprehensive analysis results could help examine the reasonability of existing urban healthcare facility distribution and optimize the location of new healthcare facilities.

Analysis of survival in breast cancer patients by using different parametric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enera Amran, Syahila; Asrul Afendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti

2017-09-01

In biomedical applications or clinical trials, right censoring was often arising when studying the time to event data. In this case, some individuals are still alive at the end of the study or lost to follow up at a certain time. It is an important issue to handle the censoring data in order to prevent any bias information in the analysis. Therefore, this study was carried out to analyze the right censoring data with three different parametric models; exponential model, Weibull model and log-logistic models. Data of breast cancer patients from Hospital Sultan Ismail, Johor Bahru from 30 December 2008 until 15 February 2017 was used in this study to illustrate the right censoring data. Besides, the covariates included in this study are the time of breast cancer infection patients survive t, age of each patients X1 and treatment given to the patients X2 . In order to determine the best parametric models in analysing survival of breast cancer patients, the performance of each model was compare based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and log-likelihood value using statistical software R. When analysing the breast cancer data, all three distributions were shown consistency of data with the line graph of cumulative hazard function resembles a straight line going through the origin. As the result, log-logistic model was the best fitted parametric model compared with exponential and Weibull model since it has the smallest value in AIC and BIC, also the biggest value in log-likelihood.

Morphological study on the prediction of the site of surface slides

Treesearch

Hiromasa Hiura

1991-01-01

The annual continual occurrence of surface slides in the basin was estimated by modifying the estimation formula of Yoshimatsu. The Weibull Distribution Function revealed to be usefull for presenting the state and the transition of surface slides in the basin. Three parameters of the Weibull Function are recognized to be the linear function of the area ratio a/A. The...

About normal distribution on SO(3) group in texture analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savyolova, T. I.; Filatov, S. V.

2017-12-01

This article studies and compares different normal distributions (NDs) on SO(3) group, which are used in texture analysis. Those NDs are: Fisher normal distribution (FND), Bunge normal distribution (BND), central normal distribution (CND) and wrapped normal distribution (WND). All of the previously mentioned NDs are central functions on SO(3) group. CND is a subcase for normal CLT-motivated distributions on SO(3) (CLT here is Parthasarathy’s central limit theorem). WND is motivated by CLT in R 3 and mapped to SO(3) group. A Monte Carlo method for modeling normally distributed values was studied for both CND and WND. All of the NDs mentioned above are used for modeling different components of crystallites orientation distribution function in texture analysis.

Nonparametric Fine Tuning of Mixtures: Application to Non-Life Insurance Claims Distribution Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardet, Laure; Patilea, Valentin

When pricing a specific insurance premium, actuary needs to evaluate the claims cost distribution for the warranty. Traditional actuarial methods use parametric specifications to model claims distribution, like lognormal, Weibull and Pareto laws. Mixtures of such distributions allow to improve the flexibility of the parametric approach and seem to be quite well-adapted to capture the skewness, the long tails as well as the unobserved heterogeneity among the claims. In this paper, instead of looking for a finely tuned mixture with many components, we choose a parsimonious mixture modeling, typically a two or three-component mixture. Next, we use the mixture cumulative distribution function (CDF) to transform data into the unit interval where we apply a beta-kernel smoothing procedure. A bandwidth rule adapted to our methodology is proposed. Finally, the beta-kernel density estimate is back-transformed to recover an estimate of the original claims density. The beta-kernel smoothing provides an automatic fine-tuning of the parsimonious mixture and thus avoids inference in more complex mixture models with many parameters. We investigate the empirical performance of the new method in the estimation of the quantiles with simulated nonnegative data and the quantiles of the individual claims distribution in a non-life insurance application.

Climate Informed Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Nonstationary Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D.; Guo, S.; Lian, Y.

2014-12-01

Stationarity is often assumed for frequency analysis of low flows in water resources management and planning. However, many studies have shown that flow characteristics, particularly the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events,were modified by climate change and human activities and the conventional frequency analysis without considering the non-stationary characteristics may lead to costly design. The analysis presented in this paper was based on the more than 100 years of daily flow data from the Yichang gaging station 44 kilometers downstream of the Three Gorges Dam. The Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis showed that the annual low flows had significant monotonic trend, whereas an abrupt change point was identified in 1936 by the Pettitt test. The climate informed low flow frequency analysis and the divided and combined method are employed to account for the impacts from related climate variables and the nonstationarities in annual low flows. Without prior knowledge of the probability density function for the gaging station, six distribution functions including the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), Pearson Type III, Gumbel, Gamma, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions have been tested to find the best fit, in which the local likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters. Analyses show that GEV had the best fit for the observed low flows. This study has also shown that the climate informed low flow frequency analysis is able to exploit the link between climate indices and low flows, which would account for the dynamic feature for reservoir management and provide more accurate and reliable designs for infrastructure and water supply.

Adaptive Weibull Multiplicative Model and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks for Dark-Spot Detection from SAR Imagery

PubMed Central

Taravat, Alireza; Oppelt, Natascha

2014-01-01

Oil spills represent a major threat to ocean ecosystems and their environmental status. Previous studies have shown that Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), as its recording is independent of clouds and weather, can be effectively used for the detection and classification of oil spills. Dark formation detection is the first and critical stage in oil-spill detection procedures. In this paper, a novel approach for automated dark-spot detection in SAR imagery is presented. A new approach from the combination of adaptive Weibull Multiplicative Model (WMM) and MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) neural networks is proposed to differentiate between dark spots and the background. The results have been compared with the results of a model combining non-adaptive WMM and pulse coupled neural networks. The presented approach overcomes the non-adaptive WMM filter setting parameters by developing an adaptive WMM model which is a step ahead towards a full automatic dark spot detection. The proposed approach was tested on 60 ENVISAT and ERS2 images which contained dark spots. For the overall dataset, an average accuracy of 94.65% was obtained. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very robust and effective where the non-adaptive WMM & pulse coupled neural network (PCNN) model generates poor accuracies. PMID:25474376

Four theorems on the psychometric function.

PubMed

May, Keith A; Solomon, Joshua A

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, Δx. This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull "slope" parameter, β, can be approximated by β(Noise) x β(Transducer), where β(Noise) is the β of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and β(Transducer) depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for β(Noise) and β(Transducer), from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when d' ∝ (Δx)(b), β ≈ β(Noise) x b. We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4-0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull β reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of β for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China.

PubMed

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China's coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40-62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China's entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters.

Modelling Framework and the Quantitative Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources in Future Distribution Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xue; Sandels, Claes; Zhu, Kun; Nordström, Lars

2013-08-01

There has been a large body of statements claiming that the large-scale deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) could eventually reshape the future distribution grid operation in numerous ways. Thus, it is necessary to introduce a framework to measure to what extent the power system operation will be changed by various parameters of DERs. This article proposed a modelling framework for an overview analysis on the correlation between DERs. Furthermore, to validate the framework, the authors described the reference models of different categories of DERs with their unique characteristics, comprising distributed generation, active demand and electric vehicles. Subsequently, quantitative analysis was made on the basis of the current and envisioned DER deployment scenarios proposed for Sweden. Simulations are performed in two typical distribution network models for four seasons. The simulation results show that in general the DER deployment brings in the possibilities to reduce the power losses and voltage drops by compensating power from the local generation and optimizing the local load profiles.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Automatic Threshold Detector Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-15

Averaging CFAR in Non- Stationary Weibull Clutter, " L. Novak, (1974 IEEE Symposium on Information Theory ). 8. "The Weibull Distribution Applied to the... UGTS (K) ,Kml NPTS) 140 DO 153 K~lvNPT9 IF(SIGCSO(K) .LT.0. )SIOCSO(K).1 .E-50 IF(SIOWSO(K) .LT.0. )SIGWSQ(K)-1 .E-50 IF(SIONSG(K) .LT.O. )SIG3NSQCIO-1.E

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Theoretical Analysis of Rain Attenuation Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Surendra Kr.; Jha, Santosh Kr.; Jha, Lallan

2007-07-01

Satellite communication technologies are now highly developed and high quality, distance-independent services have expanded over a very wide area. As for the system design of the Hokkaido integrated telecommunications(HIT) network, it must first overcome outages of satellite links due to rain attenuation in ka frequency bands. In this paper theoretical analysis of rain attenuation probability on a slant path has been made. The formula proposed is based Weibull distribution and incorporates recent ITU-R recommendations concerning the necessary rain rates and rain heights inputs. The error behaviour of the model was tested with the loading rain attenuation prediction model recommended by ITU-R for large number of experiments at different probability levels. The novel slant path rain attenuastion prediction model compared to the ITU-R one exhibits a similar behaviour at low time percentages and a better root-mean-square error performance for probability levels above 0.02%. The set of presented models exhibits the advantage of implementation with little complexity and is considered useful for educational and back of the envelope computations.

Not all nonnormal distributions are created equal: Improved theoretical and measurement precision.

PubMed

Joo, Harry; Aguinis, Herman; Bradley, Kyle J

2017-07-01

We offer a four-category taxonomy of individual output distributions (i.e., distributions of cumulative results): (1) pure power law; (2) lognormal; (3) exponential tail (including exponential and power law with an exponential cutoff); and (4) symmetric or potentially symmetric (including normal, Poisson, and Weibull). The four categories are uniquely associated with mutually exclusive generative mechanisms: self-organized criticality, proportionate differentiation, incremental differentiation, and homogenization. We then introduce distribution pitting, a falsification-based method for comparing distributions to assess how well each one fits a given data set. In doing so, we also introduce decision rules to determine the likely dominant shape and generative mechanism among many that may operate concurrently. Next, we implement distribution pitting using 229 samples of individual output for several occupations (e.g., movie directors, writers, musicians, athletes, bank tellers, call center employees, grocery checkers, electrical fixture assemblers, and wirers). Results suggest that for 75% of our samples, exponential tail distributions and their generative mechanism (i.e., incremental differentiation) likely constitute the dominant distribution shape and explanation of nonnormally distributed individual output. This finding challenges past conclusions indicating the pervasiveness of other types of distributions and their generative mechanisms. Our results further contribute to theory by offering premises about the link between past and future individual output. For future research, our taxonomy and methodology can be used to pit distributions of other variables (e.g., organizational citizenship behaviors). Finally, we offer practical insights on how to increase overall individual output and produce more top performers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Discriminating topology in galaxy distributions using network analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Sungryong; Coutinho, Bruno C.; Dey, Arjun; Barabási, Albert-L.; Vogelsberger, Mark; Hernquist, Lars; Gebhardt, Karl

2016-07-01

The large-scale distribution of galaxies is generally analysed using the two-point correlation function. However, this statistic does not capture the topology of the distribution, and it is necessary to resort to higher order correlations to break degeneracies. We demonstrate that an alternate approach using network analysis can discriminate between topologically different distributions that have similar two-point correlations. We investigate two galaxy point distributions, one produced by a cosmological simulation and the other by a Lévy walk. For the cosmological simulation, we adopt the redshift z = 0.58 slice from Illustris and select galaxies with stellar masses greater than 108 M⊙. The two-point correlation function of these simulated galaxies follows a single power law, ξ(r) ˜ r-1.5. Then, we generate Lévy walks matching the correlation function and abundance with the simulated galaxies. We find that, while the two simulated galaxy point distributions have the same abundance and two-point correlation function, their spatial distributions are very different; most prominently, filamentary structures, absent in Lévy fractals. To quantify these missing topologies, we adopt network analysis tools and measure diameter, giant component, and transitivity from networks built by a conventional friends-of-friends recipe with various linking lengths. Unlike the abundance and two-point correlation function, these network quantities reveal a clear separation between the two simulated distributions; therefore, the galaxy distribution simulated by Illustris is not a Lévy fractal quantitatively. We find that the described network quantities offer an efficient tool for discriminating topologies and for comparing observed and theoretical distributions.

Diameter distribution in a Brazilian tropical dry forest domain: predictions for the stand and species.

PubMed

Lima, Robson B DE; Bufalino, Lina; Alves, Francisco T; Silva, José A A DA; Ferreira, Rinaldo L C

2017-01-01

Currently, there is a lack of studies on the correct utilization of continuous distributions for dry tropical forests. Therefore, this work aims to investigate the diameter structure of a brazilian tropical dry forest and to select suitable continuous distributions by means of statistic tools for the stand and the main species. Two subsets were randomly selected from 40 plots. Diameter at base height was obtained. The following functions were tested: log-normal; gamma; Weibull 2P and Burr. The best fits were selected by Akaike's information validation criterion. Overall, the diameter distribution of the dry tropical forest was better described by negative exponential curves and positive skewness. The forest studied showed diameter distributions with decreasing probability for larger trees. This behavior was observed for both the main species and the stand. The generalization of the function fitted for the main species show that the development of individual models is needed. The Burr function showed good flexibility to describe the diameter structure of the stand and the behavior of Mimosa ophthalmocentra and Bauhinia cheilantha species. For Poincianella bracteosa, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodum urundeuva better fitting was obtained with the log-normal function.

Application of survival analysis methodology to the quantitative analysis of LC-MS proteomics data.

PubMed

Tekwe, Carmen D; Carroll, Raymond J; Dabney, Alan R

2012-08-01

Protein abundance in quantitative proteomics is often based on observed spectral features derived from liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) or LC-MS/MS experiments. Peak intensities are largely non-normal in distribution. Furthermore, LC-MS-based proteomics data frequently have large proportions of missing peak intensities due to censoring mechanisms on low-abundance spectral features. Recognizing that the observed peak intensities detected with the LC-MS method are all positive, skewed and often left-censored, we propose using survival methodology to carry out differential expression analysis of proteins. Various standard statistical techniques including non-parametric tests such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum tests, and the parametric survival model and accelerated failure time-model with log-normal, log-logistic and Weibull distributions were used to detect any differentially expressed proteins. The statistical operating characteristics of each method are explored using both real and simulated datasets. Survival methods generally have greater statistical power than standard differential expression methods when the proportion of missing protein level data is 5% or more. In particular, the AFT models we consider consistently achieve greater statistical power than standard testing procedures, with the discrepancy widening with increasing missingness in the proportions. The testing procedures discussed in this article can all be performed using readily available software such as R. The R codes are provided as supplemental materials. ctekwe@stat.tamu.edu.

Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Funk, Christopher C.

2007-01-01

Evaluating a range of scenarios that accurately reflect precipitation variability is critical for water resource applications. Inputs to these applications can be provided using location- and interval-specific probability distributions. These distributions make it possible to estimate the likelihood of rainfall being within a specified range. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of fitting cell-by-cell probability distributions to grids of monthly interpolated, continent-wide data. Future work will then detail applications of these grids to improved satellite-remote sensing of drought and interpretations of probabilistic climate outlook forum forecasts. The gamma distribution is well suited to these applications because it is fairly familiar to African scientists, and capable of representing a variety of distribution shapes. This study tests the goodness-of-fit using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, and compares these results against another distribution commonly used in rainfall events, the Weibull. The gamma distribution is suitable for roughly 98% of the locations over all months. The techniques and results presented in this study provide a foundation for use of the gamma distribution to generate drivers for various rain-related models. These models are used as decision support tools for the management of water and agricultural resources as well as food reserves by providing decision makers with ways to evaluate the likelihood of various rainfall accumulations and assess different scenarios in Africa. 

Numerical analysis of the unintegrated double gluon distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, Edgar; Golec-Biernat, Krzysztof; Staśto, Anna M.

2018-01-01

We present detailed numerical analysis of the unintegrated double gluon distribution which includes the dependence on the transverse momenta of partons. The unintegrated double gluon distribution was obtained following the Kimber-Martin-Ryskin method as a convolution of the perturbative gluon splitting function with the collinear integrated double gluon distribution and the Sudakov form factors. We analyze the dependence on the transverse momenta, longitudinal momentum fractions and hard scales. We find that the unintegrated gluon distribution factorizes into a product of two single unintegrated gluon distributions in the region of small values of x, provided the splitting contribution is included and the momentum sum rule is satisfied.

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. Methods To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. Results The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. Conclusions Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population

Probabilistic thermal-shock strength testing using infrared imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, A.A.; Scheidt, R.A.; Ferber, M.K.

1999-12-01

A thermal-shock strength-testing technique has been developed that uses a high-resolution, high-temperature infrared camera to capture a specimen's surface temperature distribution at fracture. Aluminum nitride (AlN) substrates are thermally shocked to fracture to demonstrate the technique. The surface temperature distribution for each test and AlN's thermal expansion are used as input in a finite-element model to determine the thermal-shock strength for each specimen. An uncensored thermal-shock strength Weibull distribution is then determined. The test and analysis algorithm show promise as a means to characterize thermal shock strength of ceramic materials.

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate. [in reliability theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canavos, G. C.

1974-01-01

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Comparative analysis through probability distributions of a data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristea, Gabriel; Constantinescu, Dan Mihai

2018-02-01

In practice, probability distributions are applied in such diverse fields as risk analysis, reliability engineering, chemical engineering, hydrology, image processing, physics, market research, business and economic research, customer support, medicine, sociology, demography etc. This article highlights important aspects of fitting probability distributions to data and applying the analysis results to make informed decisions. There are a number of statistical methods available which can help us to select the best fitting model. Some of the graphs display both input data and fitted distributions at the same time, as probability density and cumulative distribution. The goodness of fit tests can be used to determine whether a certain distribution is a good fit. The main used idea is to measure the "distance" between the data and the tested distribution, and compare that distance to some threshold values. Calculating the goodness of fit statistics also enables us to order the fitted distributions accordingly to how good they fit to data. This particular feature is very helpful for comparing the fitted models. The paper presents a comparison of most commonly used goodness of fit tests as: Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-Squared. A large set of data is analyzed and conclusions are drawn by visualizing the data, comparing multiple fitted distributions and selecting the best model. These graphs should be viewed as an addition to the goodness of fit tests.

Distributed bearing fault diagnosis based on vibration analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolenc, Boštjan; Boškoski, Pavle; Juričić, Đani

2016-01-01

Distributed bearing faults appear under various circumstances, for example due to electroerosion or the progression of localized faults. Bearings with distributed faults tend to generate more complex vibration patterns than those with localized faults. Despite the frequent occurrence of such faults, their diagnosis has attracted limited attention. This paper examines a method for the diagnosis of distributed bearing faults employing vibration analysis. The vibrational patterns generated are modeled by incorporating the geometrical imperfections of the bearing components. Comparing envelope spectra of vibration signals shows that one can distinguish between localized and distributed faults. Furthermore, a diagnostic procedure for the detection of distributed faults is proposed. This is evaluated on several bearings with naturally born distributed faults, which are compared with fault-free bearings and bearings with localized faults. It is shown experimentally that features extracted from vibrations in fault-free, localized and distributed fault conditions form clearly separable clusters, thus enabling diagnosis.

Survival distributions impact the power of randomized placebo-phase design and parallel groups randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Lusine; Li, Chuan Silvia; Beyene, Joseph; Willan, Andrew R; Feldman, Brian M

2011-03-01

The study evaluated the power of the randomized placebo-phase design (RPPD)-a new design of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), compared with the traditional parallel groups design, assuming various response time distributions. In the RPPD, at some point, all subjects receive the experimental therapy, and the exposure to placebo is for only a short fixed period of time. For the study, an object-oriented simulation program was written in R. The power of the simulated trials was evaluated using six scenarios, where the treatment response times followed the exponential, Weibull, or lognormal distributions. The median response time was assumed to be 355 days for the placebo and 42 days for the experimental drug. Based on the simulation results, the sample size requirements to achieve the same level of power were different under different response time to treatment distributions. The scenario where the response times followed the exponential distribution had the highest sample size requirement. In most scenarios, the parallel groups RCT had higher power compared with the RPPD. The sample size requirement varies depending on the underlying hazard distribution. The RPPD requires more subjects to achieve a similar power to the parallel groups design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China’s coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40–62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China’s entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters. PMID:26313256

Performance analysis of static locking in replicated distributed database systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuang, Yinghong; Mukkamala, Ravi

1991-01-01

Data replication and transaction deadlocks can severely affect the performance of distributed database systems. Many current evaluation techniques ignore these aspects, because it is difficult to evaluate through analysis and time consuming to evaluate through simulation. A technique is used that combines simulation and analysis to closely illustrate the impact of deadlock and evaluate performance of replicated distributed database with both shared and exclusive locks.

Performance analysis of static locking in replicated distributed database systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuang, Yinghong; Mukkamala, Ravi

1991-01-01

Data replications and transaction deadlocks can severely affect the performance of distributed database systems. Many current evaluation techniques ignore these aspects, because it is difficult to evaluate through analysis and time consuming to evaluate through simulation. Here, a technique is discussed that combines simulation and analysis to closely illustrate the impact of deadlock and evaluate performance of replicated distributed databases with both shared and exclusive locks.

Joint analysis of air pollution in street canyons in St. Petersburg and Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genikhovich, E. L.; Ziv, A. D.; Iakovleva, E. A.; Palmgren, F.; Berkowicz, R.

The bi-annual data set of concentrations of several traffic-related air pollutants, measured continuously in street canyons in St. Petersburg and Copenhagen, is analysed jointly using different statistical techniques. Annual mean concentrations of NO 2, NO x and, especially, benzene are found systematically higher in St. Petersburg than in Copenhagen but for ozone the situation is opposite. In both cities probability distribution functions (PDFs) of concentrations and their daily or weekly extrema are fitted with the Weibull and double exponential distributions, respectively. Sample estimates of bi-variate distributions of concentrations, concentration roses, and probabilities of concentration of one pollutant being extreme given that another one reaches its extremum are presented in this paper as well as auto- and co-spectra. It is demonstrated that there is a reasonably high correlation between seasonally averaged concentrations of pollutants in St. Petersburg and Copenhagen.

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

PubMed Central

Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

2016-01-01

Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

PubMed

Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

2016-01-01

Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

Rapid Analysis of Mass Distribution of Radiation Shielding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapp, Edward

2007-01-01

Radiation Shielding Evaluation Toolset (RADSET) is a computer program that rapidly calculates the spatial distribution of mass of an arbitrary structure for use in ray-tracing analysis of the radiation-shielding properties of the structure. RADSET was written to be used in conjunction with unmodified commercial computer-aided design (CAD) software that provides access to data on the structure and generates selected three-dimensional-appearing views of the structure. RADSET obtains raw geometric, material, and mass data on the structure from the CAD software. From these data, RADSET calculates the distribution(s) of the masses of specific materials about any user-specified point(s). The results of these mass-distribution calculations are imported back into the CAD computing environment, wherein the radiation-shielding calculations are performed.

A method for developing design diagrams for ceramic and glass materials using fatigue data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heslin, T. M.; Magida, M. B.; Forrest, K. A.

1986-01-01

The service lifetime of glass and ceramic materials can be expressed as a plot of time-to-failure versus applied stress whose plot is parametric in percent probability of failure. This type of plot is called a design diagram. Confidence interval estimates for such plots depend on the type of test that is used to generate the data, on assumptions made concerning the statistical distribution of the test results, and on the type of analysis used. This report outlines the development of design diagrams for glass and ceramic materials in engineering terms using static or dynamic fatigue tests, assuming either no particular statistical distribution of test results or a Weibull distribution and using either median value or homologous ratio analysis of the test results.

GIS-based poverty and population distribution analysis in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Jing; Wang, Yingjie; Yan, Hong

2009-07-01

Geographically, poverty status is not only related with social-economic factors but also strongly affected by geographical environment. In the paper, GIS-based poverty and population distribution analysis method is introduced for revealing their regional differences. More than 100000 poor villages and 592 national key poor counties are chosen for the analysis. The results show that poverty distribution tends to concentrate in most of west China and mountainous rural areas of mid China. Furthermore, the fifth census data are overlaid to those poor areas in order to gain its internal diversity of social-economic characteristics. By overlaying poverty related social-economic parameters, such as sex ratio, illiteracy, education level, percentage of ethnic minorities, family composition, finding shows that poverty distribution is strongly correlated with high illiteracy rate, high percentage minorities, and larger family member.

Size distribution of magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles using Warren-Averbach XRD analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahadevan, S.; Behera, S. P.; Gnanaprakash, G.; Jayakumar, T.; Philip, J.; Rao, B. P. C.

2012-07-01

We use the Fourier transform based Warren-Averbach (WA) analysis to separate the contributions of X-ray diffraction (XRD) profile broadening due to crystallite size and microstrain for magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles. The profile shape of the column length distribution, obtained from WA analysis, is used to analyze the shape of the magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles. From the column length distribution, the crystallite size and its distribution are estimated for these nanoparticles which are compared with size distribution obtained from dynamic light scattering measurements. The crystallite size and size distribution of crystallites obtained from WA analysis are explained based on the experimental parameters employed in preparation of these magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles. The variation of volume weighted diameter (Dv, from WA analysis) with saturation magnetization (Ms) fits well to a core shell model wherein it is known that Ms=Mbulk(1-6g/Dv) with Mbulk as bulk magnetization of iron oxide and g as magnetic shell disorder thickness.

Beyond Word Frequency: Bursts, Lulls, and Scaling in the Temporal Distributions of Words

PubMed Central

Altmann, Eduardo G.; Pierrehumbert, Janet B.; Motter, Adilson E.

2009-01-01

Background Zipf's discovery that word frequency distributions obey a power law established parallels between biological and physical processes, and language, laying the groundwork for a complex systems perspective on human communication. More recent research has also identified scaling regularities in the dynamics underlying the successive occurrences of events, suggesting the possibility of similar findings for language as well. Methodology/Principal Findings By considering frequent words in USENET discussion groups and in disparate databases where the language has different levels of formality, here we show that the distributions of distances between successive occurrences of the same word display bursty deviations from a Poisson process and are well characterized by a stretched exponential (Weibull) scaling. The extent of this deviation depends strongly on semantic type – a measure of the logicality of each word – and less strongly on frequency. We develop a generative model of this behavior that fully determines the dynamics of word usage. Conclusions/Significance Recurrence patterns of words are well described by a stretched exponential distribution of recurrence times, an empirical scaling that cannot be anticipated from Zipf's law. Because the use of words provides a uniquely precise and powerful lens on human thought and activity, our findings also have implications for other overt manifestations of collective human dynamics. PMID:19907645

Location and Size Planning of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation in Distribution network System Based on K-means Clustering Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Siqi; Wang, Xiaorong; Wu, Junyong

2018-01-01

The paper presents a method to generate the planning scenarios, which is based on K-means clustering analysis algorithm driven by data, for the location and size planning of distributed photovoltaic (PV) units in the network. Taken the power losses of the network, the installation and maintenance costs of distributed PV, the profit of distributed PV and the voltage offset as objectives and the locations and sizes of distributed PV as decision variables, Pareto optimal front is obtained through the self-adaptive genetic algorithm (GA) and solutions are ranked by a method called technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). Finally, select the planning schemes at the top of the ranking list based on different planning emphasis after the analysis in detail. The proposed method is applied to a 10-kV distribution network in Gansu Province, China and the results are discussed.

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1994-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.

Goodness of fit of probability distributions for sightings as species approach extinction.

PubMed

Vogel, Richard M; Hosking, Jonathan R M; Elphick, Chris S; Roberts, David L; Reed, J Michael

2009-04-01

Estimating the probability that a species is extinct and the timing of extinctions is useful in biological fields ranging from paleoecology to conservation biology. Various statistical methods have been introduced to infer the time of extinction and extinction probability from a series of individual sightings. There is little evidence, however, as to which of these models provide adequate fit to actual sighting records. We use L-moment diagrams and probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) hypothesis tests to evaluate the goodness of fit of various probabilistic models to sighting data collected for a set of North American and Hawaiian bird populations that have either gone extinct, or are suspected of having gone extinct, during the past 150 years. For our data, the uniform, truncated exponential, and generalized Pareto models performed moderately well, but the Weibull model performed poorly. Of the acceptable models, the uniform distribution performed best based on PPCC goodness of fit comparisons and sequential Bonferroni-type tests. Further analyses using field significance tests suggest that although the uniform distribution is the best of those considered, additional work remains to evaluate the truncated exponential model more fully. The methods we present here provide a framework for evaluating subsequent models.

Analyzing Distributed Functions in an Integrated Hazard Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Massie, Michael J.

2010-01-01

Large scale integration of today's aerospace systems is achievable through the use of distributed systems. Validating the safety of distributed systems is significantly more difficult as compared to centralized systems because of the complexity of the interactions between simultaneously active components. Integrated hazard analysis (IHA), a process used to identify unacceptable risks and to provide a means of controlling them, can be applied to either centralized or distributed systems. IHA, though, must be tailored to fit the particular system being analyzed. Distributed systems, for instance, must be analyzed for hazards in terms of the functions that rely on them. This paper will describe systems-oriented IHA techniques (as opposed to traditional failure-event or reliability techniques) that should be employed for distributed systems in aerospace environments. Special considerations will be addressed when dealing with specific distributed systems such as active thermal control, electrical power, command and data handling, and software systems (including the interaction with fault management systems). Because of the significance of second-order effects in large scale distributed systems, the paper will also describe how to analyze secondary functions to secondary functions through the use of channelization.

Entropy Methods For Univariate Distributions in Decision Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Ali E.

2003-03-01

One of the most important steps in decision analysis practice is the elicitation of the decision-maker's belief about an uncertainty of interest in the form of a representative probability distribution. However, the probability elicitation process is a task that involves many cognitive and motivational biases. Alternatively, the decision-maker may provide other information about the distribution of interest, such as its moments, and the maximum entropy method can be used to obtain a full distribution subject to the given moment constraints. In practice however, decision makers cannot readily provide moments for the distribution, and are much more comfortable providing information about the fractiles of the distribution of interest or bounds on its cumulative probabilities. In this paper we present a graphical method to determine the maximum entropy distribution between upper and lower probability bounds and provide an interpretation for the shape of the maximum entropy distribution subject to fractile constraints, (FMED). We also discuss the problems with the FMED in that it is discontinuous and flat over each fractile interval. We present a heuristic approximation to a distribution if in addition to its fractiles, we also know it is continuous and work through full examples to illustrate the approach.

Unified nano-mechanics based probabilistic theory of quasibrittle and brittle structures: I. Strength, static crack growth, lifetime and scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Jia-Liang; Bažant, Zdeněk P.; Bazant, Martin Z.

2011-07-01

strength and tests of the power law for the crack growth rate. The theory is shown to match closely numerous test data on strength and static lifetime of ceramics and concrete, and explains why their histograms deviate systematically from the straight line in Weibull scale. Although the present unified theory is built on several previous advances, new contributions are here made to address: (i) a crack in a disordered nano-structure (such as that of hydrated Portland cement), (ii) tail probability of a fiber bundle (or parallel coupling) model with softening elements, (iii) convergence of this model to the Gaussian distribution, (iv) the stress-life curve under constant load, and (v) a detailed random walk analysis of crack front jumps in an atomic lattice. The nonlocal behavior is captured in the present theory through the finiteness of the number of links in the weakest-link model, which explains why the mean size effect coincides with that of the previously formulated nonlocal Weibull theory. Brittle structures correspond to the large-size limit of the present theory. An important practical conclusion is that the safety factors for strength and tolerable minimum lifetime for large quasibrittle structures (e.g., concrete structures and composite airframes or ship hulls, as well as various micro-devices) should be calculated as a function of structure size and geometry.

Age of onset of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis: a distribution analysis.

PubMed

San Giorgi, M R M; van den Heuvel, E R; Tjon Pian Gi, R E A; Brunings, J W; Chirila, M; Friedrich, G; Golusinski, W; Graupp, M; Horcasitas Pous, R A; Ilmarinen, T; Jackowska, J; Koelmel, J C; Ferran Vilà, F; Weichbold, V; Wierzbicka, M; Dikkers, F G

2016-10-01

Distribution of age of onset of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) is generally described to be bimodal, with peaks at approximately 5 years and 30 years. This assumption has never been scientifically confirmed, and authors tend to refer to an article that does not describe distribution. Knowledge of the distribution of age of onset is important for virological and epidemiological comprehension. The objective of this study was to determine the distribution of age of onset of RRP in a large international sample. Cross-sectional distribution analysis. Laryngologists from 12 European hospitals provided information on date of birth and date of onset of all their RRP patients treated between 1998 and 2012. Centers that exclusively treated either patients with juvenile onset RRP or patients with adult onset RRP, or were less accessible for one of these groups, were excluded to prevent skewness. A mixture model was implemented to describe distribution of age of onset. The best fitting model was selected using the Bayesian information criterion. Six hundred and thirty-nine patients were included in the analysis. Age of onset was described by a three component mixture distribution with lognormally distributed components. Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis starts at three median ages 7, 35 and 64 years. Distribution of age of onset of RRP shows three peaks. In addition to the already adopted idea of age peaks at paediatric and adult age, there is an additional peak around the age of 64. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determining prescription durations based on the parametric waiting time distribution.

PubMed

Støvring, Henrik; Pottegård, Anton; Hallas, Jesper

2016-12-01

The purpose of the study is to develop a method to estimate the duration of single prescriptions in pharmacoepidemiological studies when the single prescription duration is not available. We developed an estimation algorithm based on maximum likelihood estimation of a parametric two-component mixture model for the waiting time distribution (WTD). The distribution component for prevalent users estimates the forward recurrence density (FRD), which is related to the distribution of time between subsequent prescription redemptions, the inter-arrival density (IAD), for users in continued treatment. We exploited this to estimate percentiles of the IAD by inversion of the estimated FRD and defined the duration of a prescription as the time within which 80% of current users will have presented themselves again. Statistical properties were examined in simulation studies, and the method was applied to empirical data for four model drugs: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), warfarin, bendroflumethiazide, and levothyroxine. Simulation studies found negligible bias when the data-generating model for the IAD coincided with the FRD used in the WTD estimation (Log-Normal). When the IAD consisted of a mixture of two Log-Normal distributions, but was analyzed with a single Log-Normal distribution, relative bias did not exceed 9%. Using a Log-Normal FRD, we estimated prescription durations of 117, 91, 137, and 118 days for NSAIDs, warfarin, bendroflumethiazide, and levothyroxine, respectively. Similar results were found with a Weibull FRD. The algorithm allows valid estimation of single prescription durations, especially when the WTD reliably separates current users from incident users, and may replace ad-hoc decision rules in automated implementations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Queue theory for triangular and weibull arrival distribution models (case study of Banyumanik toll)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugito; Rahmawati, Rita; Kusuma Wardhani, Jenesia

2018-05-01

Queuing is one of the most common phenomena in daily life. Queued also happens on highway during busy time. The Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) was the new system of the Banyumanik toll gate which operates in 2014. Before ETC, Banyumanik toll gate users got regular service (regular toll gate) by paying in cash only. The ETC benefits more than regular service, but automatic toll gate (ETC) users are still few compared to regular toll gate users. To know the effectiveness of substance service, this paper used analysis of queuing system. The research was conducted at Toll Gate Banyumanik with the implementation time on 26-28 December 2016 for Ungaran-Semarang direction, and 29-31 December 2016 for Semarang- Ungaran direction. In one day, observation was done for 11 hours. That was at 07.00 a.m. until 06.00 p.m. There are 4 models of queues at Banyumanik toll gate. Here the four models will be used on the number of arrival and service time. Based on the simulation with Arena, the result showed that queue model regular toll gate in Ugaran-Semarang direction is (Tria/G/3):(GD/∞/∞) and the queue model for automatic toll gate is (G/G/3):(GD/∞/∞). While the queue model for the direction of Semarang-Ungaran regular toll gate is (G/G/3):(GD/∞/∞) and the queue model of automatic toll gate is (Weib/G/3):(GD/∞/∞).

Integral-moment analysis of the BATSE gamma-ray burst intensity distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horack, John M.; Emslie, A. Gordon

1994-01-01

We have applied the technique of integral-moment analysis to the intensity distribution of the first 260 gamma-ray bursts observed by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. This technique provides direct measurement of properties such as the mean, variance, and skewness of the convolved luminosity-number density distribution, as well as associated uncertainties. Using this method, one obtains insight into the nature of the source distributions unavailable through computation of traditional single parameters such as V/V(sub max)). If the luminosity function of the gamma-ray bursts is strongly peaked, giving bursts only a narrow range of luminosities, these results are then direct probes of the radial distribution of sources, regardless of whether the bursts are a local phenomenon, are distributed in a galactic halo, or are at cosmological distances. Accordingly, an integral-moment analysis of the intensity distribution of the gamma-ray bursts provides for the most complete analytic description of the source distribution available from the data, and offers the most comprehensive test of the compatibility of a given hypothesized distribution with observation.

Failure rate analysis of Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft performance during orbital life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, H. P.; Timmins, A. R.

1976-01-01

Space life performance data on 57 Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft are analyzed from the standpoint of determining an appropriate reliability model and the associated reliability parameters. Data from published NASA reports, which cover the space performance of GSFC spacecraft launched in the 1960-1970 decade, form the basis of the analyses. The results of the analyses show that the time distribution of 449 malfunctions, of which 248 were classified as failures (not necessarily catastrophic), follow a reliability growth pattern that can be described with either the Duane model or a Weibull distribution. The advantages of both mathematical models are used in order to: identify space failure rates, observe chronological trends, and compare failure rates with those experienced during the prelaunch environmental tests of the flight model spacecraft.

Implication of observed cloud variability for parameterizations of microphysical and radiative transfer processes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, D.; Liu, Y.

2014-12-01

The effects of subgrid cloud variability on grid-average microphysical rates and radiative fluxes are examined by use of long-term retrieval products at the Tropical West Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. Four commonly used distribution functions, the truncated Gaussian, Gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions, are constrained to have the same mean and standard deviation as observed cloud liquid water content. The PDFs are then used to upscale relevant physical processes to obtain grid-average process rates. It is found that the truncated Gaussian representation results in up to 30% mean bias in autoconversion rate whereas the mean bias for the lognormal representation is about 10%. The Gamma and Weibull distribution function performs the best for the grid-average autoconversion rate with the mean relative bias less than 5%. For radiative fluxes, the lognormal and truncated Gaussian representations perform better than the Gamma and Weibull representations. The results show that the optimal choice of subgrid cloud distribution function depends on the nonlinearity of the process of interest and thus there is no single distribution function that works best for all parameterizations. Examination of the scale (window size) dependence of the mean bias indicates that the bias in grid-average process rates monotonically increases with increasing window sizes, suggesting the increasing importance of subgrid variability with increasing grid sizes.

Unit-Sphere Anisotropic Multiaxial Stochastic-Strength Model Probability Density Distribution for the Orientation of Critical Flaws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel

2013-01-01

Models that predict the failure probability of monolithic glass and ceramic components under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" failure models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This report develops a formulation to describe the probability density distribution of the orientation of critical strength-controlling flaws that results from an applied load. This distribution is a function of the multiaxial stress state, the shear sensitivity of the flaws, the Weibull modulus, and the strength anisotropy. Examples are provided showing the predicted response on the unit sphere for various stress states for isotropic and transversely isotropic (anisotropic) materials--including the most probable orientation of critical flaws for offset uniaxial loads with strength anisotropy. The author anticipates that this information could be used to determine anisotropic stiffness degradation or anisotropic damage evolution for individual brittle (or quasi-brittle) composite material constituents within finite element or micromechanics-based software

Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district, Japan: reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology, plate tectonics, tsunami study, micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rikitake, T.

1999-03-01

In light of newly-acquired geophysical information about earthquake generation in the Tokai area, Central Japan, where occurrence of a great earthquake of magnitude 8 or so has recently been feared, probabilities of earthquake occurrence in the near future are reevaluated. Much of the data used for evaluation here relies on recently-developed paleoseismology, tsunami study and GPS geodesy.The new Weibull distribution analysis of recurrence tendency of great earthquakes in the Tokai-Nankai zone indicates that the mean return period of great earthquakes there is estimated as 109 yr with a standard deviation amounting to 33 yr. These values do not differ much from those of previous studies (Rikitake, 1976, 1986; Utsu, 1984).Taking the newly-determined velocities of the motion of Philippine Sea plate at various portions of the Tokai-Nankai zone into account, the ultimate displacements to rupture at the plate boundary are obtained. A Weibull distribution analysis results in the mean ultimate displacement amounting to 4.70 m with a standard deviation estimated as 0.86 m. A return period amounting to 117 yr is obtained at the Suruga Bay portion by dividing the mean ultimate displacement by the relative plate velocity.With the aid of the fault models as determined from the tsunami studies, the increases in the cumulative seismic slips associated with the great earthquakes are examined at various portions of the zone. It appears that a slip-predictable model can better be applied to the occurrence mode of great earthquakes in the zone than a time-predictable model. The crustal strain accumulating over the Tokai area as estimated from the newly-developed geodetic work including the GPS observations is compared to the ultimate strain presumed by the above two models.The probabilities for a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district are then estimated with the aid of the Weibull analysis parameters obtained for the four cases discussed in the above. All the probabilities

Thermographic Analysis of Stress Distribution in Welded Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piršić, T.; Krstulović Opara, L.; Domazet, Ž.

2010-06-01

The fatigue life prediction of welded joints based on S-N curves in conjunction with nominal stresses generally is not reliable. Stress distribution in welded area affected by geometrical inhomogeneity, irregular welded surface and weld toe radius is quite complex, so the local (structural) stress concept is accepted in recent papers. The aim of this paper is to determine the stress distribution in plate type aluminum welded joints, to analyze the reliability of TSA (Thermal Stress Analysis) in this kind of investigations, and to obtain numerical values for stress concentration factors for practical use. Stress distribution in aluminum butt and fillet welded joints is determined by using the three different methods: strain gauges measurement, thermal stress analysis and FEM. Obtained results show good agreement - the TSA mutually confirmed the FEM model and stresses measured by strain gauges. According to obtained results, it may be stated that TSA, as a relatively new measurement technique may in the future become a standard tool for the experimental investigation of stress concentration and fatigue in welded joints that can help to develop more accurate numerical tools for fatigue life prediction.

Distributed intelligent data analysis in diabetic patient management.

PubMed Central

Bellazzi, R.; Larizza, C.; Riva, A.; Mira, A.; Fiocchi, S.; Stefanelli, M.

1996-01-01

This paper outlines the methodologies that can be used to perform an intelligent analysis of diabetic patients' data, realized in a distributed management context. We present a decision-support system architecture based on two modules, a Patient Unit and a Medical Unit, connected by telecommunication services. We stress the necessity to resort to temporal abstraction techniques, combined with time series analysis, in order to provide useful advice to patients; finally, we outline how data analysis and interpretation can be cooperatively performed by the two modules. PMID:8947655

Study of Solid State Drives performance in PROOF distributed analysis system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panitkin, S. Y.; Ernst, M.; Petkus, R.; Rind, O.; Wenaus, T.

2010-04-01

Solid State Drives (SSD) is a promising storage technology for High Energy Physics parallel analysis farms. Its combination of low random access time and relatively high read speed is very well suited for situations where multiple jobs concurrently access data located on the same drive. It also has lower energy consumption and higher vibration tolerance than Hard Disk Drive (HDD) which makes it an attractive choice in many applications raging from personal laptops to large analysis farms. The Parallel ROOT Facility - PROOF is a distributed analysis system which allows to exploit inherent event level parallelism of high energy physics data. PROOF is especially efficient together with distributed local storage systems like Xrootd, when data are distributed over computing nodes. In such an architecture the local disk subsystem I/O performance becomes a critical factor, especially when computing nodes use multi-core CPUs. We will discuss our experience with SSDs in PROOF environment. We will compare performance of HDD with SSD in I/O intensive analysis scenarios. In particular we will discuss PROOF system performance scaling with a number of simultaneously running analysis jobs.

Integrating software architectures for distributed simulations and simulation analysis communities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldsby, Michael E.; Fellig, Daniel; Linebarger, John Michael

2005-10-01

The one-year Software Architecture LDRD (No.79819) was a cross-site effort between Sandia California and Sandia New Mexico. The purpose of this research was to further develop and demonstrate integrating software architecture frameworks for distributed simulation and distributed collaboration in the homeland security domain. The integrated frameworks were initially developed through the Weapons of Mass Destruction Decision Analysis Center (WMD-DAC), sited at SNL/CA, and the National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center (NISAC), sited at SNL/NM. The primary deliverable was a demonstration of both a federation of distributed simulations and a federation of distributed collaborative simulation analysis communities in the context ofmore » the same integrated scenario, which was the release of smallpox in San Diego, California. To our knowledge this was the first time such a combination of federations under a single scenario has ever been demonstrated. A secondary deliverable was the creation of the standalone GroupMeld{trademark} collaboration client, which uses the GroupMeld{trademark} synchronous collaboration framework. In addition, a small pilot experiment that used both integrating frameworks allowed a greater range of crisis management options to be performed and evaluated than would have been possible without the use of the frameworks.« less

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis with Respect to Bounds of Truncated Distributions (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

AFRL-RX-WP-TP-2010-4147 PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH RESPECT TO BOUNDS OF TRUNCATED DISTRIBUTIONS (PREPRINT) H. Millwater and...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER In-house 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 62102F 6. AUTHOR(S) H. Millwater and Y. Feng 5d. PROJECT...Z39-18 1 Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis with respect to Bounds of Truncated Distributions H. Millwater and Y. Feng Department of Mechanical

Parametric distribution approach for flow availability in small hydro potential analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Samizee; Basri, Mohd Juhari Mat; Jamaluddin, Zahrul Zamri; Azrulhisham, Engku Ahmad; Othman, Jamel

2016-10-01

Small hydro system is one of the important sources of renewable energy and it has been recognized worldwide as clean energy sources. Small hydropower generation system uses the potential energy in flowing water to produce electricity is often questionable due to inconsistent and intermittent of power generated. Potential analysis of small hydro system which is mainly dependent on the availability of water requires the knowledge of water flow or stream flow distribution. This paper presented the possibility of applying Pearson system for stream flow availability distribution approximation in the small hydro system. By considering the stochastic nature of stream flow, the Pearson parametric distribution approximation was computed based on the significant characteristic of Pearson system applying direct correlation between the first four statistical moments of the distribution. The advantage of applying various statistical moments in small hydro potential analysis will have the ability to analyze the variation shapes of stream flow distribution.

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemeth, N.N.; Janosik, L.A.; Gyekenyesi, J.P.

1996-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength andmore » fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens, which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.« less

Evaluation model of distribution network development based on ANP and grey correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Kaiqiang; Zhan, Zhihong; Zhou, Ming; Wu, Qiang; Yan, Jun; Chen, Genyong

2018-06-01

The existing distribution network evaluation system cannot scientifically and comprehensively reflect the distribution network development status. Furthermore, the evaluation model is monotonous and it is not suitable for horizontal analysis of many regional power grids. For these reason, this paper constructs a set of universal adaptability evaluation index system and model of distribution network development. Firstly, distribution network evaluation system is set up by power supply capability, power grid structure, technical equipment, intelligent level, efficiency of the power grid and development benefit of power grid. Then the comprehensive weight of indices is calculated by combining the AHP with the grey correlation analysis. Finally, the index scoring function can be obtained by fitting the index evaluation criterion to the curve, and then using the multiply plus operator to get the result of sample evaluation. The example analysis shows that the model can reflect the development of distribution network and find out the advantages and disadvantages of distribution network development. Besides, the model provides suggestions for the development and construction of distribution network.

Parametric analysis for matched pair survival data.

PubMed

Manatunga, A K; Oakes, D

1999-12-01

Hougaard's (1986) bivariate Weibull distribution with positive stable frailties is applied to matched pairs survival data when either or both components of the pair may be censored and covariate vectors may be of arbitrary fixed length. When there is no censoring, we quantify the corresponding gain in Fisher information over a fixed-effects analysis. With the appropriate parameterization, the results take a simple algebraic form. An alternative marginal ("independence working model") approach to estimation is also considered. This method ignores the correlation between the two survival times in the derivation of the estimator, but provides a valid estimate of standard error. It is shown that when both the correlation between the two survival times is high, and the ratio of the within-pair variability to the between-pair variability of the covariates is high, the fixed-effects analysis captures most of the information about the regression coefficient but the independence working model does badly. When the correlation is low, and/or most of the variability of the covariates occurs between pairs, the reverse is true. The random effects model is applied to data on skin grafts, and on loss of visual acuity among diabetics. In conclusion some extensions of the methods are indicated and they are placed in a wider context of Generalized Estimation Equation methodology.

HammerCloud: A Stress Testing System for Distributed Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ster, Daniel C.; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Úbeda García, Mario; Paladin, Massimo

2011-12-01

Distributed analysis of LHC data is an I/O-intensive activity which places large demands on the internal network, storage, and local disks at remote computing facilities. Commissioning and maintaining a site to provide an efficient distributed analysis service is therefore a challenge which can be aided by tools to help evaluate a variety of infrastructure designs and configurations. HammerCloud is one such tool; it is a stress testing service which is used by central operations teams, regional coordinators, and local site admins to (a) submit arbitrary number of analysis jobs to a number of sites, (b) maintain at a steady-state a predefined number of jobs running at the sites under test, (c) produce web-based reports summarizing the efficiency and performance of the sites under test, and (d) present a web-interface for historical test results to both evaluate progress and compare sites. HammerCloud was built around the distributed analysis framework Ganga, exploiting its API for grid job management. HammerCloud has been employed by the ATLAS experiment for continuous testing of many sites worldwide, and also during large scale computing challenges such as STEP'09 and UAT'09, where the scale of the tests exceeded 10,000 concurrently running and 1,000,000 total jobs over multi-day periods. In addition, HammerCloud is being adopted by the CMS experiment; the plugin structure of HammerCloud allows the execution of CMS jobs using their official tool (CRAB).

Rescaled earthquake recurrence time statistics: application to microrepeaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, Christian; Turcotte, Donald L.; Abaimov, Sergey G.; Nadeau, Robert M.; Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru

2009-01-01

Slip on major faults primarily occurs during `characteristic' earthquakes. The recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes play an important role in seismic hazard assessment. A major problem in determining applicable statistics is the short sequences of characteristic earthquakes that are available worldwide. In this paper, we introduce a rescaling technique in which sequences can be superimposed to establish larger numbers of data points. We consider the Weibull and log-normal distributions, in both cases we rescale the data using means and standard deviations. We test our approach utilizing sequences of microrepeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Microrepeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. In this paper, we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several microrepeater sequences from Parkfield, CA as well as NE Japan. We find that, once the respective sequence can be considered to be of sufficient stationarity, the statistics can be well fitted by either a Weibull or a log-normal distribution. We clearly demonstrate this fact by our technique of rescaled combination. We conclude that the recurrence statistics of the microrepeater sequences we consider are similar to the recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes on major faults.

Accelerated test system strength models based on Birnbaum-Saunders distribution: a complete Bayesian analysis and comparison.

PubMed

Upadhyay, S K; Mukherjee, Bhaswati; Gupta, Ashutosh

2009-09-01

Several models for studies related to tensile strength of materials are proposed in the literature where the size or length component has been taken to be an important factor for studying the specimens' failure behaviour. An important model, developed on the basis of cumulative damage approach, is the three-parameter extension of the Birnbaum-Saunders fatigue model that incorporates size of the specimen as an additional variable. This model is a strong competitor of the commonly used Weibull model and stands better than the traditional models, which do not incorporate the size effect. The paper considers two such cumulative damage models, checks their compatibility with a real dataset, compares them with some of the recent toolkits, and finally recommends a model, which appears an appropriate one. Throughout the study is Bayesian based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.

The influence of Y-TZP surface treatment on topography and ceramic/resin cement interfacial fracture toughness.

PubMed

Paes, P N G; Bastian, F L; Jardim, P M

2017-09-01

Consider the efficacy of glass infiltration etching (SIE) treatment as a procedure to modify the zirconia surface resulting in higher interfacial fracture toughness. Y-TZP was subjected to 5 different surface treatments conditions consisting of no treatment (G1), SIE followed by hydrofluoric acid treatment (G2), heat treated at 750°C (G3), hydrofluoric acid treated (G4) and airborne-particle abrasion with alumina particles (G5). The effect of surface treatment on roughness was evaluated by Atomic Force Microscopy providing three different parameters: R a , R sk and surface area variation. The ceramic/resin cement interface was analyzed by Fracture Mechanics K I test with failure mode determined by fractographic analysis. Weibull's analysis was also performed to evaluate the structural integrity of the adhesion zone. G2 and G4 specimens showed very similar, and high R a values but different surface area variation (33% for G2 and 13% for G4) and they presented the highest fracture toughness (K IC ). Weibull's analysis showed G2 (SIE) tendency to exhibit higher K IC values than the other groups but with more data scatter and a higher early failure probability than G4 specimens. Selective glass infiltration etching surface treatment was effective in modifying the zirconia surface roughness, increasing the bonding area and hence the mechanical imbrications at the zirconia/resin cement interface resulting in higher fracture toughness (K IC ) values with higher K IC values obtained when failure probability above 20% was expected (Weibull's distribution) among all the experimental groups. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calling patterns in human communication dynamics

PubMed Central

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Li, Ming-Xia; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-01-01

Modern technologies not only provide a variety of communication modes (e.g., texting, cell phone conversation, and online instant messaging), but also detailed electronic traces of these communications between individuals. These electronic traces indicate that the interactions occur in temporal bursts. Here, we study intercall duration of communications of the 100,000 most active cell phone users of a Chinese mobile phone operator. We confirm that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff at the population level but find differences when focusing on individual users. We apply statistical tests at the individual level and find that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution for only 3,460 individuals (3.46%). The intercall durations for the majority (73.34%) follow a Weibull distribution. We quantify individual users using three measures: out-degree, percentage of outgoing calls, and communication diversity. We find that the cell phone users with a power-law duration distribution fall into three anomalous clusters: robot-based callers, telecom fraud, and telephone sales. This information is of interest to both academics and practitioners, mobile telecom operators in particular. In contrast, the individual users with a Weibull duration distribution form the fourth cluster of ordinary cell phone users. We also discover more information about the calling patterns of these four clusters (e.g., the probability that a user will call the cr-th most contact and the probability distribution of burst sizes). Our findings may enable a more detailed analysis of the huge body of data contained in the logs of massive users. PMID:23319645

Calling patterns in human communication dynamics.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Li, Ming-Xia; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H Eugene

2013-01-29

Modern technologies not only provide a variety of communication modes (e.g., texting, cell phone conversation, and online instant messaging), but also detailed electronic traces of these communications between individuals. These electronic traces indicate that the interactions occur in temporal bursts. Here, we study intercall duration of communications of the 100,000 most active cell phone users of a Chinese mobile phone operator. We confirm that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff at the population level but find differences when focusing on individual users. We apply statistical tests at the individual level and find that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution for only 3,460 individuals (3.46%). The intercall durations for the majority (73.34%) follow a Weibull distribution. We quantify individual users using three measures: out-degree, percentage of outgoing calls, and communication diversity. We find that the cell phone users with a power-law duration distribution fall into three anomalous clusters: robot-based callers, telecom fraud, and telephone sales. This information is of interest to both academics and practitioners, mobile telecom operators in particular. In contrast, the individual users with a Weibull duration distribution form the fourth cluster of ordinary cell phone users. We also discover more information about the calling patterns of these four clusters (e.g., the probability that a user will call the c(r)-th most contact and the probability distribution of burst sizes). Our findings may enable a more detailed analysis of the huge body of data contained in the logs of massive users.

Energy loss analysis of an integrated space power distribution system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kankam, M. D.; Ribeiro, P. F.

1992-01-01

The results of studies related to conceptual topologies of an integrated utility-like space power system are described. The system topologies are comparatively analyzed by considering their transmission energy losses as functions of mainly distribution voltage level and load composition. The analysis is expedited by use of a Distribution System Analysis and Simulation (DSAS) software. This recently developed computer program by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) uses improved load models to solve the power flow within the system. However, present shortcomings of the software with regard to space applications, and incompletely defined characteristics of a space power system make the results applicable to only the fundamental trends of energy losses of the topologies studied. Accountability, such as included, for the effects of the various parameters on the system performance can constitute part of a planning tool for a space power distribution system.

Molecular Isotopic Distribution Analysis (MIDAs) with Adjustable Mass Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Gelio; Ogurtsov, Aleksey Y.; Yu, Yi-Kuo

2014-01-01

In this paper, we present Molecular Isotopic Distribution Analysis (MIDAs), a new software tool designed to compute molecular isotopic distributions with adjustable accuracies. MIDAs offers two algorithms, one polynomial-based and one Fourier-transform-based, both of which compute molecular isotopic distributions accurately and efficiently. The polynomial-based algorithm contains few novel aspects, whereas the Fourier-transform-based algorithm consists mainly of improvements to other existing Fourier-transform-based algorithms. We have benchmarked the performance of the two algorithms implemented in MIDAs with that of eight software packages (BRAIN, Emass, Mercury, Mercury5, NeutronCluster, Qmass, JFC, IC) using a consensus set of benchmark molecules. Under the proposed evaluation criteria, MIDAs's algorithms, JFC, and Emass compute with comparable accuracy the coarse-grained (low-resolution) isotopic distributions and are more accurate than the other software packages. For fine-grained isotopic distributions, we compared IC, MIDAs's polynomial algorithm, and MIDAs's Fourier transform algorithm. Among the three, IC and MIDAs's polynomial algorithm compute isotopic distributions that better resemble their corresponding exact fine-grained (high-resolution) isotopic distributions. MIDAs can be accessed freely through a user-friendly web-interface at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/CBBresearch/Yu/midas/index.html.

Molecular Isotopic Distribution Analysis (MIDAs) with adjustable mass accuracy.

PubMed

Alves, Gelio; Ogurtsov, Aleksey Y; Yu, Yi-Kuo

2014-01-01

In this paper, we present Molecular Isotopic Distribution Analysis (MIDAs), a new software tool designed to compute molecular isotopic distributions with adjustable accuracies. MIDAs offers two algorithms, one polynomial-based and one Fourier-transform-based, both of which compute molecular isotopic distributions accurately and efficiently. The polynomial-based algorithm contains few novel aspects, whereas the Fourier-transform-based algorithm consists mainly of improvements to other existing Fourier-transform-based algorithms. We have benchmarked the performance of the two algorithms implemented in MIDAs with that of eight software packages (BRAIN, Emass, Mercury, Mercury5, NeutronCluster, Qmass, JFC, IC) using a consensus set of benchmark molecules. Under the proposed evaluation criteria, MIDAs's algorithms, JFC, and Emass compute with comparable accuracy the coarse-grained (low-resolution) isotopic distributions and are more accurate than the other software packages. For fine-grained isotopic distributions, we compared IC, MIDAs's polynomial algorithm, and MIDAs's Fourier transform algorithm. Among the three, IC and MIDAs's polynomial algorithm compute isotopic distributions that better resemble their corresponding exact fine-grained (high-resolution) isotopic distributions. MIDAs can be accessed freely through a user-friendly web-interface at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/CBBresearch/Yu/midas/index.html.

High-resolution, submicron particle size distribution analysis using gravitational-sweep sedimentation.

PubMed Central

Mächtle, W

1999-01-01

Sedimentation velocity is a powerful tool for the analysis of complex solutions of macromolecules. However, sample turbidity imposes an upper limit to the size of molecular complexes currently amenable to such analysis. Furthermore, the breadth of the particle size distribution, combined with possible variations in the density of different particles, makes it difficult to analyze extremely complex mixtures. These same problems are faced in the polymer industry, where dispersions of latices, pigments, lacquers, and emulsions must be characterized. There is a rich history of methods developed for the polymer industry finding use in the biochemical sciences. Two such methods are presented. These use analytical ultracentrifugation to determine the density and size distributions for submicron-sized particles. Both methods rely on Stokes' equations to estimate particle size and density, whereas turbidity, corrected using Mie's theory, provides the concentration measurement. The first method uses the sedimentation time in dispersion media of different densities to evaluate the particle density and size distribution. This method works provided the sample is chemically homogeneous. The second method splices together data gathered at different sample concentrations, thus permitting the high-resolution determination of the size distribution of particle diameters ranging from 10 to 3000 nm. By increasing the rotor speed exponentially from 0 to 40,000 rpm over a 1-h period, size distributions may be measured for extremely broadly distributed dispersions. Presented here is a short history of particle size distribution analysis using the ultracentrifuge, along with a description of the newest experimental methods. Several applications of the methods are provided that demonstrate the breadth of its utility, including extensions to samples containing nonspherical and chromophoric particles. PMID:9916040

Empirical Analysis of Optical Attenuator Performance in Quantum Key Distribution Systems Using a Particle Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF OPTICAL ATTENUATOR PERFORMANCE IN QUANTUM KEY DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS USING A...DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED AFIT/GCS/ENG/12-01 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF OPTICAL ATTENUATOR PERFORMANCE IN QUANTUM KEY DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS USING ...challenging as the complexity of actual implementation specifics are considered. Two components common to most quantum key distribution

Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

2018-03-01

Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

Visualization and Analysis for Near-Real-Time Decision Making in Distributed Workflows

DOE PAGES

Pugmire, David; Kress, James; Choi, Jong; ...

2016-08-04

Data driven science is becoming increasingly more common, complex, and is placing tremendous stresses on visualization and analysis frameworks. Data sources producing 10GB per second (and more) are becoming increasingly commonplace in both simulation, sensor and experimental sciences. These data sources, which are often distributed around the world, must be analyzed by teams of scientists that are also distributed. Enabling scientists to view, query and interact with such large volumes of data in near-real-time requires a rich fusion of visualization and analysis techniques, middleware and workflow systems. Here, this paper discusses initial research into visualization and analysis of distributed datamore » workflows that enables scientists to make near-real-time decisions of large volumes of time varying data.« less

Universal Recurrence Time Statistics of Characteristic Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, C.; Turcotte, D. L.; Abaimov, S.; Nadeau, R. M.

2006-12-01

Characteristic earthquakes are defined to occur quasi-periodically on major faults. Do recurrence time statistics of such earthquakes follow a particular statistical distribution? If so, which one? The answer is fundamental and has important implications for hazard assessment. The problem cannot be solved by comparing the goodness of statistical fits as the available sequences are too short. The Parkfield sequence of M ≍ 6 earthquakes, one of the most extensive reliable data sets available, has grown to merely seven events with the last earthquake in 2004, for example. Recently, however, advances in seismological monitoring and improved processing methods have unveiled so-called micro-repeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur exactly in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Micro-repeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. Due to their recent discovery, however, available sequences contain less than 20 events at present. In this paper we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several micro-repeater sequences from Parkfield and adjacent regions. To improve the statistical significance of our findings, we combine several sequences into one by rescaling the individual sets by their respective mean recurrence intervals and Weibull exponents. This novel approach of rescaled combination yields the most extensive data set possible. We find that the resulting statistics can be fitted well by an exponential distribution, confirming the universal applicability of the Weibull distribution to characteristic earthquakes. A similar result is obtained from rescaled combination, however, with regard to the lognormal distribution.

Validation results of the IAG Dancer project for distributed GPS analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boomkamp, H.

2012-12-01

The number of permanent GPS stations in the world has grown far too large to allow processing of all this data at analysis centers. The majority of these GPS sites do not even make their observation data available to the analysis centers, for various valid reasons. The current ITRF solution is still based on centralized analysis by the IGS, and subsequent densification of the reference frame via regional network solutions. Minor inconsistencies in analysis methods, software systems and data quality imply that this centralized approach is unlikely to ever reach the ambitious accuracy objectives of GGOS. The dependence on published data also makes it clear that a centralized approach will never provide a true global ITRF solution for all GNSS receivers in the world. If the data does not come to the analysis, the only alternative is to bring the analysis to the data. The IAG Dancer project has implemented a distributed GNSS analysis system on the internet in which each receiver can have its own analysis center in the form of a freely distributed JAVA peer-to-peer application. Global parameters for satellite orbits, clocks and polar motion are solved via a distributed least squares solution among all participating receivers. A Dancer instance can run on any computer that has simultaneous access to the receiver data and to the public internet. In the future, such a process may be embedded in the receiver firmware directly. GPS network operators can join the Dancer ITRF realization without having to publish their observation data or estimation products. GPS users can run a Dancer process without contributing to the global solution, to have direct access to the ITRF in near real-time. The Dancer software has been tested on-line since late 2011. A global network of processes has gradually evolved to allow stabilization and tuning of the software in order to reach a fully operational system. This presentation reports on the current performance of the Dancer system, and

Can Distributed Volunteers Accomplish Massive Data Analysis Tasks?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanefsky, B.; Barlow, N. G.; Gulick, V. C.

2001-01-01

We argue that many image analysis tasks can be performed by distributed amateurs. Our pilot study, with crater surveying and classification, has produced encouraging results in terms of both quantity (100,000 crater entries in 2 months) and quality. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Analysis on Voltage Profile of Distribution Network with Distributed Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Hua; Shi, Yujie; Yuan, Jianpu; An, Jiakun; Yang, Jianhua

2018-02-01

Penetration of distributed generation has some impacts on a distribution network in load flow, voltage profile, reliability, power loss and so on. After the impacts and the typical structures of the grid-connected distributed generation are analyzed, the back/forward sweep method of the load flow calculation of the distribution network is modelled including distributed generation. The voltage profiles of the distribution network affected by the installation location and the capacity of distributed generation are thoroughly investigated and simulated. The impacts on the voltage profiles are summarized and some suggestions to the installation location and the capacity of distributed generation are given correspondingly.

Component Analysis of Remanent Magnetization Curves: A Revisit with a New Model Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, X.; Suganuma, Y.; Fujii, M.

2017-12-01

Geological samples often consist of several magnetic components that have distinct origins. As the magnetic components are often indicative of their underlying geological and environmental processes, it is therefore desirable to identify individual components to extract associated information. This component analysis can be achieved using the so-called unmixing method, which fits a mixture model of certain end-member model distribution to the measured remanent magnetization curve. In earlier studies, the lognormal, skew generalized Gaussian and skewed Gaussian distributions have been used as the end-member model distribution in previous studies, which are performed on the gradient curve of remanent magnetization curves. However, gradient curves are sensitive to measurement noise as the differentiation of the measured curve amplifies noise, which could deteriorate the component analysis. Though either smoothing or filtering can be applied to reduce the noise before differentiation, their effect on biasing component analysis is vaguely addressed. In this study, we investigated a new model function that can be directly applied to the remanent magnetization curves and therefore avoid the differentiation. The new model function can provide more flexible shape than the lognormal distribution, which is a merit for modeling the coercivity distribution of complex magnetic component. We applied the unmixing method both to model and measured data, and compared the results with those obtained using other model distributions to better understand their interchangeability, applicability and limitation. The analyses on model data suggest that unmixing methods are inherently sensitive to noise, especially when the number of component is over two. It is, therefore, recommended to verify the reliability of component analysis by running multiple analyses with synthetic noise. Marine sediments and seafloor rocks are analyzed with the new model distribution. Given the same component

BATSE analysis techniques for probing the GRB spatial and luminosity distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkila, Jon; Meegan, Charles A.

1992-01-01

The Burst And Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) has measured homogeneity and isotropy parameters from an increasingly large sample of observed gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), while also maintaining a summary of the way in which the sky has been sampled. Measurement of both of these are necessary for any study of the BATSE data statistically, as they take into account the most serious observational selection effects known in the study of GRBs: beam-smearing and inhomogeneous, anisotropic sky sampling. Knowledge of these effects is important to analysis of GRB angular and intensity distributions. In addition to determining that the bursts are local, it is hoped that analysis of such distributions will allow boundaries to be placed on the true GRB spatial distribution and luminosity function. The technique for studying GRB spatial and luminosity distributions is direct. Results of BATSE analyses are compared to Monte Carlo models parameterized by a variety of spatial and luminosity characteristics.

Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.

2007-08-01

The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These statistics are particularly important for earthquakes. For earthquakes it is important to make a distinction between interoccurrence and recurrence times. Interoccurrence times are the interval times between earthquakes on all faults in a region whereas recurrence times are interval times between earthquakes on a single fault or fault segment. In many, but not all cases, interoccurrence time statistics are exponential (Poissonian) and the events occur randomly. However, the distribution of recurrence times are often Weibull to a good approximation. In this paper we study the interval statistics of slip events using a slider-block model. The behavior of this model is sensitive to the stiffness α of the system, α=kC/kL where kC is the spring constant of the connector springs and kL is the spring constant of the loader plate springs. For a soft system (small α) there are no system-wide events and interoccurrence time statistics of the larger events are Poissonian. For a stiff system (large α), system-wide events dominate the energy dissipation and the statistics of the recurrence times between these system-wide events satisfy the Weibull distribution to a good approximation. We argue that this applicability of the Weibull distribution is due to the power-law (scale invariant) behavior of the hazard function, i.e. the probability that the next event will occur at a time t0 after the last event has a power-law dependence on t0. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale invariant hazard function. We further show that the onset of system-wide events is a well defined

Improving Department of Defense Global Distribution Performance Through Network Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

network performance increase. 14. SUBJECT TERMS supply chain metrics, distribution networks, requisition shipping time, strategic distribution database...peace and war” (p. 4). USTRANSCOM Metrics and Analysis Branch defines, develops, tracks, and maintains outcomes- based supply chain metrics to...2014a, p. 8). The Joint Staff defines a TDD standard as the maximum number of days the supply chain can take to deliver requisitioned materiel

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distribution System Reliability Analysis for Smart Grid Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aljohani, Tawfiq Masad

Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capable of being a self-healing grid, offering the ability to overcome the interruption problems that face the utility and cost it tens of millions in repair and loss. To address its reliability concerns, the power utilities and interested parties have spent extensive amount of time and effort to analyze and study the reliability of the generation and transmission sectors of the power grid. Only recently has attention shifted to be focused on improving the reliability of the distribution network, the connection joint between the power providers and the consumers where most of the electricity problems occur. In this work, we will examine the effect of the smart grid applications in improving the reliability of the power distribution networks. The test system used in conducting this thesis is the IEEE 34 node test feeder, released in 2003 by the Distribution System Analysis Subcommittee of the IEEE Power Engineering Society. The objective is to analyze the feeder for the optimal placement of the automatic switching devices and quantify their proper installation based on the performance of the distribution system. The measures will be the changes in the reliability system indices including SAIDI, SAIFI, and EUE. The goal is to design and simulate the effect of the installation of the Distributed Generators (DGs) on the utility's distribution system and measure the potential improvement of its reliability. The software used in this work is DISREL, which is intelligent power distribution software that is developed by General Reliability Co.

Comparing Distributions of Environmental Outcomes for Regulatory Environmental Justice Analysis

PubMed Central

Maguire, Kelly; Sheriff, Glenn

2011-01-01

Economists have long been interested in measuring distributional impacts of policy interventions. As environmental justice (EJ) emerged as an ethical issue in the 1970s, the academic literature has provided statistical analyses of the incidence and causes of various environmental outcomes as they relate to race, income, and other demographic variables. In the context of regulatory impacts, however, there is a lack of consensus regarding what information is relevant for EJ analysis, and how best to present it. This paper helps frame the discussion by suggesting a set of questions fundamental to regulatory EJ analysis, reviewing past approaches to quantifying distributional equity, and discussing the potential for adapting existing tools to the regulatory context. PMID:21655146

DISCRN: A Distributed Storytelling Framework for Intelligence Analysis.

PubMed

Shukla, Manu; Dos Santos, Raimundo; Chen, Feng; Lu, Chang-Tien

2017-09-01

Storytelling connects entities (people, organizations) using their observed relationships to establish meaningful storylines. This can be extended to spatiotemporal storytelling that incorporates locations, time, and graph computations to enhance coherence and meaning. But when performed sequentially these computations become a bottleneck because the massive number of entities make space and time complexity untenable. This article presents DISCRN, or distributed spatiotemporal ConceptSearch-based storytelling, a distributed framework for performing spatiotemporal storytelling. The framework extracts entities from microblogs and event data, and links these entities using a novel ConceptSearch to derive storylines in a distributed fashion utilizing key-value pair paradigm. Performing these operations at scale allows deeper and broader analysis of storylines. The novel parallelization techniques speed up the generation and filtering of storylines on massive datasets. Experiments with microblog posts such as Twitter data and Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone events show the efficiency of the techniques in DISCRN.

WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ANALYSIS: FIELD STUDIES, MODELING AND MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The user‘s guide entitled “Water Distribution System Analysis: Field Studies, Modeling and Management” is a reference guide for water utilities and an extensive summarization of information designed to provide drinking water utility personnel (and related consultants and research...

Analysis and Modeling of Realistic Compound Channels in Transparent Relay Transmissions

PubMed Central

Kanjirathumkal, Cibile K.; Mohammed, Sameer S.

2014-01-01

Analytical approaches for the characterisation of the compound channels in transparent multihop relay transmissions over independent fading channels are considered in this paper. Compound channels with homogeneous links are considered first. Using Mellin transform technique, exact expressions are derived for the moments of cascaded Weibull distributions. Subsequently, two performance metrics, namely, coefficient of variation and amount of fade, are derived using the computed moments. These metrics quantify the possible variations in the channel gain and signal to noise ratio from their respective average values and can be used to characterise the achievable receiver performance. This approach is suitable for analysing more realistic compound channel models for scattering density variations of the environment, experienced in multihop relay transmissions. The performance metrics for such heterogeneous compound channels having distinct distribution in each hop are computed and compared with those having identical constituent component distributions. The moments and the coefficient of variation computed are then used to develop computationally efficient estimators for the distribution parameters and the optimal hop count. The metrics and estimators proposed are complemented with numerical and simulation results to demonstrate the impact of the accuracy of the approaches. PMID:24701175

Radar signal analysis of ballistic missile with micro-motion based on time-frequency distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianming; Liu, Lihua; Yu, Hua

2015-12-01

The micro-motion of ballistic missile targets induces micro-Doppler modulation on the radar return signal, which is a unique feature for the warhead discrimination during flight. In order to extract the micro-Doppler feature of ballistic missile targets, time-frequency analysis is employed to process the micro-Doppler modulated time-varying radar signal. The images of time-frequency distribution (TFD) reveal the micro-Doppler modulation characteristic very well. However, there are many existing time-frequency analysis methods to generate the time-frequency distribution images, including the short-time Fourier transform (STFT), Wigner distribution (WD) and Cohen class distribution, etc. Under the background of ballistic missile defence, the paper aims at working out an effective time-frequency analysis method for ballistic missile warhead discrimination from the decoys.

Recognition of battery aging variations for LiFePO4 batteries in 2nd use applications combining incremental capacity analysis and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yan; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zhang, Caiping; Zhang, Weige; Gao, Yang; Guo, Qipei

2017-08-01

To assess the economic benefits of battery reuse, the consistency and aging characteristics of a retired LiFePO4 battery pack are studied in this paper. The consistency of battery modules is analyzed from the perspective of the capacity and the internal resistance. Test results indicate that battery module parameter dispersion increases along with battery aging. However, battery modules with better capacity consistency doesn't ensure better resistance consistency. Then the aging characteristics of the battery pack are analyzed and the main results are as follow: (1) Weibull and normal distribution are feasible to fit the capacity and resistance distribution of battery modules respectively; (2) SOC imbalance is the dominating factor in the capacity fading process of the battery pack; (3) By employing the incremental capacity (IC) and IC peak area analysis, a consistency evaluation method representing the aging mechanism variations of the battery modules is proposed and then an accurate battery screening strategy is put forward. This study not only provides data support for evaluating economic benefits of retired batteries but also presents a method to recognize the battery aging variations, which is helpful for rapid evaluation and screening of retired batteries for 2nd use.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Reaction-Formed Silicon Carbide (RFSC) Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, M.; Behrendt, D. R.

1994-01-01

The microstructure and mechanical properties of reaction-formed silicon carbide (RFSC) ceramics fabricated by silicon infiltration of porous carbon preforms are discussed. The morphological characterization of the carbon preforms indicates a very narrow pore size distribution. Measurements of the preform density by physical methods and by mercury porosimetry agree very well and indicate that virtually all of the porosity in the preforms is open to infiltrating liquids. The average room temperature flexural strength of the RFSC material with approximately 8 at.% free silicon is 369 +/- 28 MPa (53.5 +/- 4 ksi). The Weibull strength distribution data give a characteristic strength value of 381 MPa (55 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 14.3. The residual silicon content is lower and the strengths are superior to those of most commercially available reaction-bonded silicon carbide materials.

When is Chemical Similarity Significant? The Statistical Distribution of Chemical Similarity Scores and Its Extreme Values

PubMed Central

Baldi, Pierre

2010-01-01

As repositories of chemical molecules continue to expand and become more open, it becomes increasingly important to develop tools to search them efficiently and assess the statistical significance of chemical similarity scores. Here we develop a general framework for understanding, modeling, predicting, and approximating the distribution of chemical similarity scores and its extreme values in large databases. The framework can be applied to different chemical representations and similarity measures but is demonstrated here using the most common binary fingerprints with the Tanimoto similarity measure. After introducing several probabilistic models of fingerprints, including the Conditional Gaussian Uniform model, we show that the distribution of Tanimoto scores can be approximated by the distribution of the ratio of two correlated Normal random variables associated with the corresponding unions and intersections. This remains true also when the distribution of similarity scores is conditioned on the size of the query molecules in order to derive more fine-grained results and improve chemical retrieval. The corresponding extreme value distributions for the maximum scores are approximated by Weibull distributions. From these various distributions and their analytical forms, Z-scores, E-values, and p-values are derived to assess the significance of similarity scores. In addition, the framework allows one to predict also the value of standard chemical retrieval metrics, such as Sensitivity and Specificity at fixed thresholds, or ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves at multiple thresholds, and to detect outliers in the form of atypical molecules. Numerous and diverse experiments carried in part with large sets of molecules from the ChemDB show remarkable agreement between theory and empirical results. PMID:20540577

The Joint Distribution Process Analysis Center (JDPAC): Background and Current Capability

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-12

Systems Integration and Data Management JDDE Analysis/Global Distribution Performance Assessment Futures/Transformation Analysis Balancing Operational Art ... Science JDPAC “101” USTRANSCOM Future Operations Center SDDC – TEA Army SES (Dual Hat) • Transportability Engineering • Other Title 10

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1989-01-01

The development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines is studied. Injection molding was the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals were to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in four-point loading. Statistically designed experiments were performed throughout the program and a fluid mixing process employing an attritor mixer was developed. Compositional improvements in the amounts and sources of boron and carbon used and a pressureless sintering cycle were developed which provided samples of about 99 percent of theoretical density. Strengths were found to improve significantly by annealing in air. Strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) with Weibull modulus of about 9 were obtained. Further improvements in Weibull modulus to about 16 were realized by proof testing. This is an increase of 86 percent in strength and 100 percent in Weibull modulus over the baseline data generated at the beginning of the program. Molding yields were improved and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. Magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectra were found to be useful in characterizing the SiC powder and the sintered samples. Turbocharger rotors were molded and examined as an indication of the moldability of the mixes which were developed in this program.

Size-distribution analysis of macromolecules by sedimentation velocity ultracentrifugation and lamm equation modeling.

PubMed

Schuck, P

2000-03-01

A new method for the size-distribution analysis of polymers by sedimentation velocity analytical ultracentrifugation is described. It exploits the ability of Lamm equation modeling to discriminate between the spreading of the sedimentation boundary arising from sample heterogeneity and from diffusion. Finite element solutions of the Lamm equation for a large number of discrete noninteracting species are combined with maximum entropy regularization to represent a continuous size-distribution. As in the program CONTIN, the parameter governing the regularization constraint is adjusted by variance analysis to a predefined confidence level. Estimates of the partial specific volume and the frictional ratio of the macromolecules are used to calculate the diffusion coefficients, resulting in relatively high-resolution sedimentation coefficient distributions c(s) or molar mass distributions c(M). It can be applied to interference optical data that exhibit systematic noise components, and it does not require solution or solvent plateaus to be established. More details on the size-distribution can be obtained than from van Holde-Weischet analysis. The sensitivity to the values of the regularization parameter and to the shape parameters is explored with the help of simulated sedimentation data of discrete and continuous model size distributions, and by applications to experimental data of continuous and discrete protein mixtures.

EMD-WVD time-frequency distribution for analysis of multi-component signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chai, Yunzi; Zhang, Xudong

2016-10-01

Time-frequency distribution (TFD) is two-dimensional function that indicates the time-varying frequency content of one-dimensional signals. And The Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD) is an important and effective time-frequency analysis method. The WVD can efficiently show the characteristic of a mono-component signal. However, a major drawback is the extra cross-terms when multi-component signals are analyzed by WVD. In order to eliminating the cross-terms, we decompose signals into single frequency components - Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) - by using the Empirical Mode decomposition (EMD) first, then use WVD to analyze each single IMF. In this paper, we define this new time-frequency distribution as EMD-WVD. And the experiment results show that the proposed time-frequency method can solve the cross-terms problem effectively and improve the accuracy of WVD time-frequency analysis.

Vibrational Energy Distribution Analysis (VEDA): Scopes and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamróz, Michał H.

2013-10-01

The principle of operations of the VEDA program written by the author for Potential Energy Distribution (PED) analysis of theoretical vibrational spectra is described. Nowadays, the PED analysis is indispensible tool in serious analysis of the vibrational spectra. To perform the PED analysis it is necessary to define 3N-6 linearly independent local mode coordinates. Already for 20-atomic molecules it is a difficult task. The VEDA program reads the input data automatically from the Gaussian program output files. Then, VEDA automatically proposes an introductory set of local mode coordinates. Next, the more adequate coordinates are proposed by the program and optimized to obtain maximal elements of each column (internal coordinate) of the PED matrix (the EPM parameter). The possibility for an automatic optimization of PED contributions is a unique feature of the VEDA program absent in any other programs performing PED analysis.

Just fracking: a distributive environmental justice analysis of unconventional gas development in Pennsylvania, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clough, Emily; Bell, Derek

2016-02-01

This letter presents a distributive environmental justice analysis of unconventional gas development in the area of Pennsylvania lying over the Marcellus Shale, the largest shale gas formation in play in the United States. The extraction of shale gas using unconventional wells, which are hydraulically fractured (fracking), has increased dramatically since 2005. As the number of wells has grown, so have concerns about the potential public health effects on nearby communities. These concerns make shale gas development an environmental justice issue. This letter examines whether the hazards associated with proximity to wells and the economic benefits of shale gas production are fairly distributed. We distinguish two types of distributive environmental justice: traditional and benefit sharing. We ask the traditional question: are there a disproportionate number of minority or low-income residents in areas near to unconventional wells in Pennsylvania? However, we extend this analysis in two ways: we examine income distribution and level of education; and we compare before and after shale gas development. This contributes to discussions of benefit sharing by showing how the income distribution of the population has changed. We use a binary dasymetric technique to remap the data from the 2000 US Census and the 2009-2013 American Communities Survey and combine that data with a buffer containment analysis of unconventional wells to compare the characteristics of the population living nearer to unconventional wells with those further away before and after shale gas development. Our analysis indicates that there is no evidence of traditional distributive environmental injustice: there is not a disproportionate number of minority or low-income residents in areas near to unconventional wells. However, our analysis is consistent with the claim that there is benefit sharing distributive environmental injustice: the income distribution of the population nearer to shale gas wells

Evaluation of Low-Voltage Distribution Network Index Based on Improved Principal Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Hanlu; Gao, Suzhou; Fan, Wenjie; Zhong, Yinfeng; Zhu, Lei

2018-01-01

In order to evaluate the development level of the low-voltage distribution network objectively and scientifically, chromatography analysis method is utilized to construct evaluation index model of low-voltage distribution network. Based on the analysis of principal component and the characteristic of logarithmic distribution of the index data, a logarithmic centralization method is adopted to improve the principal component analysis algorithm. The algorithm can decorrelate and reduce the dimensions of the evaluation model and the comprehensive score has a better dispersion degree. The clustering method is adopted to analyse the comprehensive score because the comprehensive score of the courts is concentrated. Then the stratification evaluation of the courts is realized. An example is given to verify the objectivity and scientificity of the evaluation method.

Elemental distribution analysis of urinary crystals.

PubMed

Fazil Marickar, Y M; Lekshmi, P R; Varma, Luxmi; Koshy, Peter

2009-10-01

Various crystals are seen in human urine. Some of them, particularly calcium oxalate dihydrate, are seen normally. Pathological crystals indicate crystal formation initiating urinary stones. Unfortunately, many of the relevant crystals are not recognized in light microscopic analysis of the urinary deposit performed in most of the clinical laboratories. Many crystals are not clearly identifiable under the ordinary light microscopy. The objective of the present study was to perform scanning electron microscopic (SEM) assessment of various urinary deposits and confirm the identity by elemental distribution analysis (EDAX). 50 samples of urinary deposits were collected from urinary stone clinic. Deposits containing significant crystalluria (more than 10 per HPF) were collected under liquid paraffin in special containers and taken up for SEM studies. The deposited crystals were retrieved with appropriate Pasteur pipettes, and placed on micropore filter paper discs. The fluid was absorbed by thicker layers of filter paper underneath and discs were fixed to brass studs. They were then gold sputtered to 100 A and examined under SEM (Jeol JSM 35C microscope). When crystals were seen, their morphology was recorded by taking photographs at different angles. At appropriate magnification, EDAX probe was pointed to the crystals under study and the wave patterns analyzed. Components of the crystals were recognized by utilizing the data. All the samples analyzed contained significant number of crystals. All samples contained more than one type of crystal. The commonest crystals encountered included calcium oxalate monohydrate (whewellite 22%), calcium oxalate dihydrate (weddellite 32%), uric acid (10%), calcium phosphates, namely, apatite (4%), brushite (6%), struvite (6%) and octocalcium phosphate (2%). The morphological appearances of urinary crystals described were correlated with the wavelengths obtained through elemental distribution analysis. Various urinary crystals that

Powerlaw: a Python package for analysis of heavy-tailed distributions.

PubMed

Alstott, Jeff; Bullmore, Ed; Plenz, Dietmar

2014-01-01

Power laws are theoretically interesting probability distributions that are also frequently used to describe empirical data. In recent years, effective statistical methods for fitting power laws have been developed, but appropriate use of these techniques requires significant programming and statistical insight. In order to greatly decrease the barriers to using good statistical methods for fitting power law distributions, we developed the powerlaw Python package. This software package provides easy commands for basic fitting and statistical analysis of distributions. Notably, it also seeks to support a variety of user needs by being exhaustive in the options available to the user. The source code is publicly available and easily extensible.

Automatic analysis of attack data from distributed honeypot network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safarik, Jakub; Voznak, MIroslav; Rezac, Filip; Partila, Pavol; Tomala, Karel

2013-05-01

There are many ways of getting real data about malicious activity in a network. One of them relies on masquerading monitoring servers as a production one. These servers are called honeypots and data about attacks on them brings us valuable information about actual attacks and techniques used by hackers. The article describes distributed topology of honeypots, which was developed with a strong orientation on monitoring of IP telephony traffic. IP telephony servers can be easily exposed to various types of attacks, and without protection, this situation can lead to loss of money and other unpleasant consequences. Using a distributed topology with honeypots placed in different geological locations and networks provides more valuable and independent results. With automatic system of gathering information from all honeypots, it is possible to work with all information on one centralized point. Communication between honeypots and centralized data store use secure SSH tunnels and server communicates only with authorized honeypots. The centralized server also automatically analyses data from each honeypot. Results of this analysis and also other statistical data about malicious activity are simply accessible through a built-in web server. All statistical and analysis reports serve as information basis for an algorithm which classifies different types of used VoIP attacks. The web interface then brings a tool for quick comparison and evaluation of actual attacks in all monitored networks. The article describes both, the honeypots nodes in distributed architecture, which monitor suspicious activity, and also methods and algorithms used on the server side for analysis of gathered data.

Using Micro-Synchrophasor Data for Advanced Distribution Grid Planning and Operations Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, Emma; Kiliccote, Sila; McParland, Charles

2014-07-01

This report reviews the potential for distribution-grid phase-angle data that will be available from new micro-synchrophasors (µPMUs) to be utilized in existing distribution-grid planning and operations analysis. This data could augment the current diagnostic capabilities of grid analysis software, used in both planning and operations for applications such as fault location, and provide data for more accurate modeling of the distribution system. µPMUs are new distribution-grid sensors that will advance measurement and diagnostic capabilities and provide improved visibility of the distribution grid, enabling analysis of the grid’s increasingly complex loads that include features such as large volumes of distributed generation.more » Large volumes of DG leads to concerns on continued reliable operation of the grid, due to changing power flow characteristics and active generation, with its own protection and control capabilities. Using µPMU data on change in voltage phase angle between two points in conjunction with new and existing distribution-grid planning and operational tools is expected to enable model validation, state estimation, fault location, and renewable resource/load characterization. Our findings include: data measurement is outstripping the processing capabilities of planning and operational tools; not every tool can visualize a voltage phase-angle measurement to the degree of accuracy measured by advanced sensors, and the degree of accuracy in measurement required for the distribution grid is not defined; solving methods cannot handle the high volumes of data generated by modern sensors, so new models and solving methods (such as graph trace analysis) are needed; standardization of sensor-data communications platforms in planning and applications tools would allow integration of different vendors’ sensors and advanced measurement devices. In addition, data from advanced sources such as µPMUs could be used to validate models to improve

Incorporating psychological influences in probabilistic cost analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kujawski, Edouard; Alvaro, Mariana; Edwards, William

2004-01-08

Today's typical probabilistic cost analysis assumes an ''ideal'' project that is devoid of the human and organizational considerations that heavily influence the success and cost of real-world projects. In the real world ''Money Allocated Is Money Spent'' (MAIMS principle); cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost. Realistic cost estimates therefore require a modified probabilistic cost analysis that simultaneously models the cost management strategy including budget allocation. Psychological influences such as overconfidence in assessing uncertainties and dependencies among cost elements and risks are other important considerations thatmore » are generally not addressed. It should then be no surprise that actual project costs often exceed the initial estimates and are delivered late and/or with a reduced scope. This paper presents a practical probabilistic cost analysis model that incorporates recent findings in human behavior and judgment under uncertainty, dependencies among cost elements, the MAIMS principle, and project management practices. Uncertain cost elements are elicited from experts using the direct fractile assessment method and fitted with three-parameter Weibull distributions. The full correlation matrix is specified in terms of two parameters that characterize correlations among cost elements in the same and in different subsystems. The analysis is readily implemented using standard Monte Carlo simulation tools such as {at}Risk and Crystal Ball{reg_sign}. The analysis of a representative design and engineering project substantiates that today's typical probabilistic cost analysis is likely to severely underestimate project cost for probability of success values of importance to contractors and procuring activities. The proposed approach provides a framework for developing a viable cost management strategy for allocating baseline budgets and contingencies

Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

2004-01-01

Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal

Evaluation of the resistance to cyclic fatigue among ProTaper Next, ProTaper Universal, and Vortex Blue rotary instruments.

PubMed

Nguyen, Harrison H; Fong, Hanson; Paranjpe, Avina; Flake, Natasha M; Johnson, James D; Peters, Ove A

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the fracture resistance to cyclic fatigue of ProTaper Next (PTN; Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties, Tulsa, OK), ProTaper Universal (PTU, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties), and Vortex Blue (VB, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties) rotary instruments. Twenty instruments each of PTN X1-X5, PTU S1-F5, and VB 20/04-50/04 were rotated until fracture in a simulated canal of 90° and a 5-mm radius using a custom-made testing platform. The number of cycles to fracture (NCF) was calculated. Weibull analysis was used to predict the maximum number of cycles when 99% of the instrument samples survive. VB 20/04-30/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S1-F5 and PTN X1-X5. VB 35/04-45/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S2-F5 and PTN X2-X5. PTN X1 had higher NCF than PTU S1-F5. PTN X2 had higher NCF than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution predicted the highest number of cycles at which 99% of instruments survive to be 766 cycles for VB 25/04 and the lowest to be 50 cycles for PTU F2. Under the limitations of this study, VB 20/04-45/04 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTN X2-X5 and PTU S2-F5. PTN X1 and X2 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution appears to be a feasible and potentially clinically relevant model to predict resistance to cyclic fatigue. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. All rights reserved.

Mechanical response of silk crystalline units from force-distribution analysis.

PubMed

Xiao, Senbo; Stacklies, Wolfram; Cetinkaya, Murat; Markert, Bernd; Gräter, Frauke

2009-05-20

The outstanding mechanical toughness of silk fibers is thought to be caused by embedded crystalline units acting as cross links of silk proteins in the fiber. Here, we examine the robustness of these highly ordered beta-sheet structures by molecular dynamics simulations and finite element analysis. Structural parameters and stress-strain relationships of four different models, from spider and Bombyx mori silk peptides, in antiparallel and parallel arrangement, were determined and found to be in good agreement with x-ray diffraction data. Rupture forces exceed those of any previously examined globular protein many times over, with spider silk (poly-alanine) slightly outperforming Bombyx mori silk ((Gly-Ala)(n)). All-atom force distribution analysis reveals both intrasheet hydrogen-bonding and intersheet side-chain interactions to contribute to stability to similar extent. In combination with finite element analysis of simplified beta-sheet skeletons, we could ascribe the distinct force distribution pattern of the antiparallel and parallel silk crystalline units to the difference in hydrogen-bond geometry, featuring an in-line or zigzag arrangement, respectively. Hydrogen-bond strength was higher in antiparallel models, and ultimately resulted in higher stiffness of the crystal, compensating the effect of the mechanically disadvantageous in-line hydrogen-bond geometry. Atomistic and coarse-grained force distribution patterns can thus explain differences in mechanical response of silk crystals, opening up the road to predict full fiber mechanics.

Vibrational energy distribution analysis (VEDA): scopes and limitations.

PubMed

Jamróz, Michał H

2013-10-01

The principle of operations of the VEDA program written by the author for Potential Energy Distribution (PED) analysis of theoretical vibrational spectra is described. Nowadays, the PED analysis is indispensible tool in serious analysis of the vibrational spectra. To perform the PED analysis it is necessary to define 3N-6 linearly independent local mode coordinates. Already for 20-atomic molecules it is a difficult task. The VEDA program reads the input data automatically from the Gaussian program output files. Then, VEDA automatically proposes an introductory set of local mode coordinates. Next, the more adequate coordinates are proposed by the program and optimized to obtain maximal elements of each column (internal coordinate) of the PED matrix (the EPM parameter). The possibility for an automatic optimization of PED contributions is a unique feature of the VEDA program absent in any other programs performing PED analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Space station electrical power distribution analysis using a load flow approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emanuel, Ervin M.

1987-01-01

The space station's electrical power system will evolve and grow in a manner much similar to the present terrestrial electrical power system utilities. The initial baseline reference configuration will contain more than 50 nodes or busses, inverters, transformers, overcurrent protection devices, distribution lines, solar arrays, and/or solar dynamic power generating sources. The system is designed to manage and distribute 75 KW of power single phase or three phase at 20 KHz, and grow to a level of 300 KW steady state, and must be capable of operating at a peak of 450 KW for 5 to 10 min. In order to plan far into the future and keep pace with load growth, a load flow power system analysis approach must be developed and utilized. This method is a well known energy assessment and management tool that is widely used throughout the Electrical Power Utility Industry. The results of a comprehensive evaluation and assessment of an Electrical Distribution System Analysis Program (EDSA) is discussed. Its potential use as an analysis and design tool for the 20 KHz space station electrical power system is addressed.

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Brikmanis, C. K.; Lewicki, D. G.; Coy, J. J.

1985-01-01

A reliability model is presented for bevel gear reductions with either a single input pinion or dual input pinions of equal size. The dual pinions may or may not have the same power applied for the analysis. The gears may be straddle mounted or supported in a bearing quill. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distribution. The reduction's basic dynamic capacity is defined as the output torque which may be applied for one million output rotations of the bevel gear with a 90 percent probability of reduction survival.

ZERODUR: deterministic approach for strength design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2012-12-01

There is an increasing request for zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR substrates being capable of enduring higher operational static loads or accelerations. The integrity of structures such as optical or mechanical elements for satellites surviving rocket launches, filigree lightweight mirrors, wobbling mirrors, and reticle and wafer stages in microlithography must be guaranteed with low failure probability. Their design requires statistically relevant strength data. The traditional approach using the statistical two-parameter Weibull distribution suffered from two problems. The data sets were too small to obtain distribution parameters with sufficient accuracy and also too small to decide on the validity of the model. This holds especially for the low failure probability levels that are required for reliable applications. Extrapolation to 0.1% failure probability and below led to design strengths so low that higher load applications seemed to be not feasible. New data have been collected with numbers per set large enough to enable tests on the applicability of the three-parameter Weibull distribution. This distribution revealed to provide much better fitting of the data. Moreover it delivers a lower threshold value, which means a minimum value for breakage stress, allowing of removing statistical uncertainty by introducing a deterministic method to calculate design strength. Considerations taken from the theory of fracture mechanics as have been proven to be reliable with proof test qualifications of delicate structures made from brittle materials enable including fatigue due to stress corrosion in a straight forward way. With the formulae derived, either lifetime can be calculated from given stress or allowable stress from minimum required lifetime. The data, distributions, and design strength calculations for several practically relevant surface conditions of ZERODUR are given. The values obtained are significantly higher than those resulting from the two

A review and comparison of methods for recreating individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves for economic evaluations: a simulation study.

PubMed

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

A Review and Comparison of Methods for Recreating Individual Patient Data from Published Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves for Economic Evaluations: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

Background In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. Methods A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. Results All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. Conclusions The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. PMID:25803659

Lognormal Distribution of Cellular Uptake of Radioactivity: Statistical Analysis of α-Particle Track Autoradiography

PubMed Central

Neti, Prasad V.S.V.; Howell, Roger W.

2010-01-01

Recently, the distribution of radioactivity among a population of cells labeled with 210Po was shown to be well described by a log-normal (LN) distribution function (J Nucl Med. 2006;47:1049–1058) with the aid of autoradiography. To ascertain the influence of Poisson statistics on the interpretation of the autoradiographic data, the present work reports on a detailed statistical analysis of these earlier data. Methods The measured distributions of α-particle tracks per cell were subjected to statistical tests with Poisson, LN, and Poisson-lognormal (P-LN) models. Results The LN distribution function best describes the distribution of radioactivity among cell populations exposed to 0.52 and 3.8 kBq/mL of 210Po-citrate. When cells were exposed to 67 kBq/mL, the P-LN distribution function gave a better fit; however, the underlying activity distribution remained log-normal. Conclusion The present analysis generally provides further support for the use of LN distributions to describe the cellular uptake of radioactivity. Care should be exercised when analyzing autoradiographic data on activity distributions to ensure that Poisson processes do not distort the underlying LN distribution. PMID:18483086

Electrical Power Distribution and Control Modeling and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Johnny S.; Liffring, Mark; Mehdi, Ishaque S.

2001-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of Electrical Power Distribution and Control (EPD&C) Modeling and how modeling can support analysis. The presentation discusses using the EASY5 model to simulate and analyze the Space Shuttle Electric Auxiliary Power Unit. Diagrams of the model schematics are included, as well as graphs of the battery cell impedance, hydraulic load dynamics, and EPD&C response to hydraulic load variations.

Experimental Study on Fatigue Performance of Foamed Lightweight Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Youqiang; Yang, Ping; Li, Yongliang; Zhang, Liujun

2017-12-01

In order to study fatigue performance of foamed lightweight soil and forecast its fatigue life in the supporting project, on the base of preliminary tests, beam fatigue tests on foamed lightweight soil is conducted by using UTM-100 test system. Based on Weibull distribution and lognormal distribution, using the mathematical statistics method, fatigue equations of foamed lightweight soil are obtained. At the same time, according to the traffic load on real road surface of the supporting project, fatigue life of formed lightweight soil is analyzed and compared with the cumulative equivalent axle loads during the design period of the pavement. The results show that even the fatigue life of foamed lightweight soil has discrete property, the linear relationship between logarithmic fatigue life and stress ratio still performs well. Especially, the fatigue life of Weibull distribution is more close to that derived from the lognormal distribution, in the instance of 50% guarantee ratio. In addition, the results demonstrated that foamed lightweight soil as subgrade filler has good anti-fatigue performance, which can be further adopted by other projects in the similar research domain.

Analysis of Jingdong Mall Logistics Distribution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Kang; Cheng, Feng

In recent years, the development of electronic commerce in our country to speed up the pace. The role of logistics has been highlighted, more and more electronic commerce enterprise are beginning to realize the importance of logistics in the success or failure of the enterprise. In this paper, the author take Jingdong Mall for example, performing a SWOT analysis of their current situation of self-built logistics system, find out the problems existing in the current Jingdong Mall logistics distribution and give appropriate recommendations.

Dynamics of Polydisperse Foam-like Emulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicock, Harry; Feitosa, Klebert

2011-10-01

Foam is a complex fluid whose relaxation properties are associated with the continuous diffusion of gas from small to large bubbles driven by differences in Laplace pressures. We study the dynamics of bubble rearrangements by tracking droplets of a clear, buoyantly neutral emulsion that coarsens like a foam. The droplets are imaged in three dimensions using confocal microscopy. Analysis of the images allows us to measure their positions and radii, and track their evolution in time. We find that the droplet size distribution fits a Weibull distribution characteristics of foam systems. Additionally, we observe that droplets undergo continuous evolution interspersed by occasional large rearrangements in par with local relaxation behavior typical of foams.

Challenges in reducing the computational time of QSTS simulations for distribution system analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deboever, Jeremiah; Zhang, Xiaochen; Reno, Matthew J.

The rapid increase in penetration of distributed energy resources on the electric power distribution system has created a need for more comprehensive interconnection modelling and impact analysis. Unlike conventional scenario - based studies , quasi - static time - series (QSTS) simulation s can realistically model time - dependent voltage controllers and the diversity of potential impacts that can occur at different times of year . However, to accurately model a distribution system with all its controllable devices, a yearlong simulation at 1 - second resolution is often required , which could take conventional computers a computational time of 10more » to 120 hours when an actual unbalanced distribution feeder is modeled . This computational burden is a clear l imitation to the adoption of QSTS simulation s in interconnection studies and for determining optimal control solutions for utility operations . Our ongoing research to improve the speed of QSTS simulation has revealed many unique aspects of distribution system modelling and sequential power flow analysis that make fast QSTS a very difficult problem to solve. In this report , the most relevant challenges in reducing the computational time of QSTS simulations are presented: number of power flows to solve, circuit complexity, time dependence between time steps, multiple valid power flow solutions, controllable element interactions, and extensive accurate simulation analysis.« less

Generalized Reliability Methodology Applied to Brittle Anisotropic Single Crystals. Degree awarded by Washington Univ., 1999

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.

2002-01-01

A generalized reliability model was developed for use in the design of structural components made from brittle, homogeneous anisotropic materials such as single crystals. The model is based on the Weibull distribution and incorporates a variable strength distribution and any equivalent stress failure criteria. In addition to the reliability model, an energy based failure criterion for elastically anisotropic materials was formulated. The model is different from typical Weibull-based models in that it accounts for strength anisotropy arising from fracture toughness anisotropy and thereby allows for strength and reliability predictions of brittle, anisotropic single crystals subjected to multiaxial stresses. The model is also applicable to elastically isotropic materials exhibiting strength anisotropy due to an anisotropic distribution of flaws. In order to develop and experimentally verify the model, the uniaxial and biaxial strengths of a single crystal nickel aluminide were measured. The uniaxial strengths of the <100> and <110> crystal directions were measured in three and four-point flexure. The biaxial strength was measured by subjecting <100> plates to a uniform pressure in a test apparatus that was developed and experimentally verified. The biaxial strengths of the single crystal plates were estimated by extending and verifying the displacement solution for a circular, anisotropic plate to the case of a variable radius and thickness. The best correlation between the experimental strength data and the model predictions occurred when an anisotropic stress analysis was combined with the normal stress criterion and the strength parameters associated with the <110> crystal direction.

Tense Usage Analysis in Verb Distribution in Brazilian Portuguese.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoge, Henry W., Comp.

This section of a four-part research project investigating the syntax of Brazilian Portuguese presents data concerning tense usage in verb distribution. The data are derived from the analysis of selected literary samples from representative and contemporary writers. The selection of authors and tabulation of data are also described. Materials…

On the non-Poissonian repetition pattern of FRB121102

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppermann, Niels; Yu, Hao-Ran; Pen, Ue-Li

2018-04-01

The Fast Radio Burst FRB121102 has been observed to repeat in an irregular fashion. Using published timing data of the observed bursts, we show that Poissonian statistics are not a good description of this random process. As an alternative, we suggest to describe the intervals between bursts with a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter smaller than one, which allows for the clustered nature of the bursts. We quantify the amount of clustering using the parameters of the Weibull distribution and discuss the consequences that it has for the detection probabilities of future observations and for the optimization of observing strategies. Allowing for this generalization, we find a mean repetition rate of r=5.7^{+3.0}_{-2.0} per day and index k=0.34^{+0.06}_{-0.05} for a correlation function ξ(t) = (t/t0)k - 1.

New S control chart using skewness correction method for monitoring process dispersion of skewed distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atta, Abdu; Yahaya, Sharipah; Zain, Zakiyah; Ahmed, Zalikha

2017-11-01

Control chart is established as one of the most powerful tools in Statistical Process Control (SPC) and is widely used in industries. The conventional control charts rely on normality assumption, which is not always the case for industrial data. This paper proposes a new S control chart for monitoring process dispersion using skewness correction method for skewed distributions, named as SC-S control chart. Its performance in terms of false alarm rate is compared with various existing control charts for monitoring process dispersion, such as scaled weighted variance S chart (SWV-S); skewness correction R chart (SC-R); weighted variance R chart (WV-R); weighted variance S chart (WV-S); and standard S chart (STD-S). Comparison with exact S control chart with regards to the probability of out-of-control detections is also accomplished. The Weibull and gamma distributions adopted in this study are assessed along with the normal distribution. Simulation study shows that the proposed SC-S control chart provides good performance of in-control probabilities (Type I error) in almost all the skewness levels and sample sizes, n. In the case of probability of detection shift the proposed SC-S chart is closer to the exact S control chart than the existing charts for skewed distributions, except for the SC-R control chart. In general, the performance of the proposed SC-S control chart is better than all the existing control charts for monitoring process dispersion in the cases of Type I error and probability of detection shift.

Distributed Leadership in Drainage Basin Management: A Critical Analysis of ‘River Chief Policy’ from a Distributed Leadership Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Liuyi

2018-02-01

Water resources management has been more significant than ever since the official file stipulated ‘three red lines’ to scrupulously control water usage and water pollution, accelerating the promotion of ‘River Chief Policy’ throughout China. The policy launches creative approaches to include people from different administrative levels to participate and distributes power to increase drainage basin management efficiency. Its execution resembles features of distributed leadership theory, a vastly acknowledged western leadership theory with innovative perspective and visions to suit the modern world. This paper intends to analyse the policy from a distributed leadership perspective using Taylor’s critical policy analysis framework.

Analysis and synthesis of distributed-lumped-active networks by digital computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The use of digital computational techniques in the analysis and synthesis of DLA (distributed lumped active) networks is considered. This class of networks consists of three distinct types of elements, namely, distributed elements (modeled by partial differential equations), lumped elements (modeled by algebraic relations and ordinary differential equations), and active elements (modeled by algebraic relations). Such a characterization is applicable to a broad class of circuits, especially including those usually referred to as linear integrated circuits, since the fabrication techniques for such circuits readily produce elements which may be modeled as distributed, as well as the more conventional lumped and active ones.

Mathematical Ecology Analysis of Geographical Distribution of Soybean-Nodulating Bradyrhizobia in Japan

PubMed Central

Saeki, Yuichi; Shiro, Sokichi; Tajima, Toshiyuki; Yamamoto, Akihiro; Sameshima-Saito, Reiko; Sato, Takashi; Yamakawa, Takeo

2013-01-01

We characterized the relationship between the genetic diversity of indigenous soybean-nodulating bradyrhizobia from weakly acidic soils in Japan and their geographical distribution in an ecological study of indigenous soybean rhizobia. We isolated bradyrhizobia from three kinds of Rj-genotype soybeans. Their genetic diversity and community structure were analyzed by PCR-RFLP analysis of the 16S–23S rRNA gene internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region with 11 Bradyrhizobium USDA strains as references. We used data from the present study and previous studies to carry out mathematical ecological analyses, multidimensional scaling analysis with the Bray-Curtis index, polar ordination analysis, and multiple regression analyses to characterize the relationship between soybean-nodulating bradyrhizobial community structures and their geographical distribution. The mathematical ecological approaches used in this study demonstrated the presence of ecological niches and suggested the geographical distribution of soybean-nodulating bradyrhizobia to be a function of latitude and the related climate, with clusters in the order Bj123, Bj110, Bj6, and Be76 from north to south in Japan. PMID:24240318

A performance analysis method for distributed real-time robotic systems: A case study of remote teleoperation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lefebvre, D. R.; Sanderson, A. C.

1994-01-01

Robot coordination and control systems for remote teleoperation applications are by necessity implemented on distributed computers. Modeling and performance analysis of these distributed robotic systems is difficult, but important for economic system design. Performance analysis methods originally developed for conventional distributed computer systems are often unsatisfactory for evaluating real-time systems. The paper introduces a formal model of distributed robotic control systems; and a performance analysis method, based on scheduling theory, which can handle concurrent hard-real-time response specifications. Use of the method is illustrated by a case of remote teleoperation which assesses the effect of communication delays and the allocation of robot control functions on control system hardware requirements.

Electrochemical reactions in fluoride-ion batteries: mechanistic insights from pair distribution function analysis

DOE PAGES

Grenier, Antonin; Porras-Gutierrez, Ana-Gabriela; Groult, Henri; ...

2017-07-05

Detailed analysis of electrochemical reactions occurring in rechargeable Fluoride-Ion Batteries (FIBs) is provided by means of synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Pair Distribution Function (PDF) analysis.

CMS distributed data analysis with CRAB3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascheroni, M.; Balcas, J.; Belforte, S.; Bockelman, B. P.; Hernandez, J. M.; Ciangottini, D.; Konstantinov, P. B.; Silva, J. M. D.; Ali, M. A. B. M.; Melo, A. M.; Riahi, H.; Tanasijczuk, A. J.; Yusli, M. N. B.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A. E.; Vaandering, E.

2015-12-01

The CMS Remote Analysis Builder (CRAB) is a distributed workflow management tool which facilitates analysis tasks by isolating users from the technical details of the Grid infrastructure. Throughout LHC Run 1, CRAB has been successfully employed by an average of 350 distinct users each week executing about 200,000 jobs per day. CRAB has been significantly upgraded in order to face the new challenges posed by LHC Run 2. Components of the new system include 1) a lightweight client, 2) a central primary server which communicates with the clients through a REST interface, 3) secondary servers which manage user analysis tasks and submit jobs to the CMS resource provisioning system, and 4) a central service to asynchronously move user data from temporary storage in the execution site to the desired storage location. The new system improves the robustness, scalability and sustainability of the service. Here we provide an overview of the new system, operation, and user support, report on its current status, and identify lessons learned from the commissioning phase and production roll-out.

CMS distributed data analysis with CRAB3

DOE PAGES

Mascheroni, M.; Balcas, J.; Belforte, S.; ...

2015-12-23

The CMS Remote Analysis Builder (CRAB) is a distributed workflow management tool which facilitates analysis tasks by isolating users from the technical details of the Grid infrastructure. Throughout LHC Run 1, CRAB has been successfully employed by an average of 350 distinct users each week executing about 200,000 jobs per day.CRAB has been significantly upgraded in order to face the new challenges posed by LHC Run 2. Components of the new system include 1) a lightweight client, 2) a central primary server which communicates with the clients through a REST interface, 3) secondary servers which manage user analysis tasks andmore » submit jobs to the CMS resource provisioning system, and 4) a central service to asynchronously move user data from temporary storage in the execution site to the desired storage location. Furthermore, the new system improves the robustness, scalability and sustainability of the service.Here we provide an overview of the new system, operation, and user support, report on its current status, and identify lessons learned from the commissioning phase and production roll-out.« less

Online-offline activities and game-playing behaviors of avatars in a massive multiplayer online role-playing game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Tan, Qun-Zhao

2009-11-01

Massive multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) are very popular in China, which provides a potential platform for scientific research. We study the online-offline activities of avatars in an MMORPG to understand their game-playing behavior. The statistical analysis unveils that the active avatars can be classified into three types. The avatars of the first type are owned by game cheaters who go online and offline in preset time intervals with the online duration distributions dominated by pulses. The second type of avatars is characterized by a Weibull distribution in the online durations, which is confirmed by statistical tests. The distributions of online durations of the remaining individual avatars differ from the above two types and cannot be described by a simple form. These findings have potential applications in the game industry.

Statistical Models of Fracture Relevant to Nuclear-Grade Graphite: Review and Recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Bratton, Robert L.

2011-01-01

The nuclear-grade (low-impurity) graphite needed for the fuel element and moderator material for next-generation (Gen IV) reactors displays large scatter in strength and a nonlinear stress-strain response from damage accumulation. This response can be characterized as quasi-brittle. In this expanded review, relevant statistical failure models for various brittle and quasi-brittle material systems are discussed with regard to strength distribution, size effect, multiaxial strength, and damage accumulation. This includes descriptions of the Weibull, Batdorf, and Burchell models as well as models that describe the strength response of composite materials, which involves distributed damage. Results from lattice simulations are included for a physics-based description of material breakdown. Consideration is given to the predicted transition between brittle and quasi-brittle damage behavior versus the density of damage (level of disorder) within the material system. The literature indicates that weakest-link-based failure modeling approaches appear to be reasonably robust in that they can be applied to materials that display distributed damage, provided that the level of disorder in the material is not too large. The Weibull distribution is argued to be the most appropriate statistical distribution to model the stochastic-strength response of graphite.

The border-to-border distribution method for analysis of cytoplasmic particles and organelles.

PubMed

Yacovone, Shalane K; Ornelles, David A; Lyles, Douglas S

2016-02-01

Comparing the distribution of cytoplasmic particles and organelles between different experimental conditions can be challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of cell morphologies. The border-to-border distribution method was created to enable the quantitative analysis of fluorescently labeled cytoplasmic particles and organelles of multiple cells from images obtained by confocal microscopy. The method consists of four steps: (1) imaging of fluorescently labeled cells, (2) division of the image of the cytoplasm into radial segments, (3) selection of segments of interest, and (4) population analysis of fluorescence intensities at the pixel level either as a function of distance along the selected radial segments or as a function of angle around an annulus. The method was validated using the well-characterized effect of brefeldin A (BFA) on the distribution of the vesicular stomatitis virus G protein, in which intensely labeled Golgi membranes are redistributed within the cytoplasm. Surprisingly, in untreated cells, the distribution of fluorescence in Golgi membrane-containing radial segments was similar to the distribution of fluorescence in other G protein-containing segments, indicating that the presence of Golgi membranes did not shift the distribution of G protein towards the nucleus compared to the distribution of G protein in other regions of the cell. Treatment with BFA caused only a slight shift in the distribution of the brightest G protein-containing segments which had a distribution similar to that in untreated cells. Instead, the major effect of BFA was to alter the annular distribution of G protein in the perinuclear region.

Performance optimisations for distributed analysis in ALICE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betev, L.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Grigoras, C.; Hristov, P.

2014-06-01

Performance is a critical issue in a production system accommodating hundreds of analysis users. Compared to a local session, distributed analysis is exposed to services and network latencies, remote data access and heterogeneous computing infrastructure, creating a more complex performance and efficiency optimization matrix. During the last 2 years, ALICE analysis shifted from a fast development phase to the more mature and stable code. At the same time, the frameworks and tools for deployment, monitoring and management of large productions have evolved considerably too. The ALICE Grid production system is currently used by a fair share of organized and individual user analysis, consuming up to 30% or the available resources and ranging from fully I/O-bound analysis code to CPU intensive correlations or resonances studies. While the intrinsic analysis performance is unlikely to improve by a large factor during the LHC long shutdown (LS1), the overall efficiency of the system has still to be improved by an important factor to satisfy the analysis needs. We have instrumented all analysis jobs with "sensors" collecting comprehensive monitoring information on the job running conditions and performance in order to identify bottlenecks in the data processing flow. This data are collected by the MonALISa-based ALICE Grid monitoring system and are used to steer and improve the job submission and management policy, to identify operational problems in real time and to perform automatic corrective actions. In parallel with an upgrade of our production system we are aiming for low level improvements related to data format, data management and merging of results to allow for a better performing ALICE analysis.

Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

2017-04-01

In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

An Energy Analysis of the Pseudo Wigner-Ville Distribution in Support of Machinery Monitoring and Diagnostics

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

AD-A256 202 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS - _ ’. AN ENERGY ANALYSIS OF THE PSEUDO WIGNER - VILLE DISTRIBUTION IN SUPPORT OF...NO 11 TITLE (Include Security Classification) AN ENERGY ANALYSIS OF THE PSEUDO WIGNER - VILLE DISTRIBUTION IN SUPPORT OF MACHINERY MONITORING AND...block number) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP machinery monitoring, transient, pseudo wigner - ville distribution , machinery diagnostics 19 ABSTRACT (Continue on

Multilevel mixed effects parametric survival models using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature with application to recurrent events and individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Crowther, Michael J; Look, Maxime P; Riley, Richard D

2014-09-28

Multilevel mixed effects survival models are used in the analysis of clustered survival data, such as repeated events, multicenter clinical trials, and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses, to investigate heterogeneity in baseline risk and covariate effects. In this paper, we extend parametric frailty models including the exponential, Weibull and Gompertz proportional hazards (PH) models and the log logistic, log normal, and generalized gamma accelerated failure time models to allow any number of normally distributed random effects. Furthermore, we extend the flexible parametric survival model of Royston and Parmar, modeled on the log-cumulative hazard scale using restricted cubic splines, to include random effects while also allowing for non-PH (time-dependent effects). Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the models utilizing adaptive or nonadaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The methods are evaluated through simulation studies representing clinically plausible scenarios of a multicenter trial and IPD meta-analysis, showing good performance of the estimation method. The flexible parametric mixed effects model is illustrated using a dataset of patients with kidney disease and repeated times to infection and an IPD meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies in patients with breast cancer. User-friendly Stata software is provided to implement the methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spherical Harmonic Analysis of Particle Velocity Distribution Function: Comparison of Moments and Anisotropies using Cluster Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurgiolo, Chris; Vinas, Adolfo F.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a spherical harmonic analysis of the plasma velocity distribution function using high-angular, energy, and time resolution Cluster data obtained from the PEACE spectrometer instrument to demonstrate how this analysis models the particle distribution function and its moments and anisotropies. The results show that spherical harmonic analysis produced a robust physical representation model of the velocity distribution function, resolving the main features of the measured distributions. From the spherical harmonic analysis, a minimum set of nine spectral coefficients was obtained from which the moment (up to the heat flux), anisotropy, and asymmetry calculations of the velocity distribution function were obtained. The spherical harmonic method provides a potentially effective "compression" technique that can be easily carried out onboard a spacecraft to determine the moments and anisotropies of the particle velocity distribution function for any species. These calculations were implemented using three different approaches, namely, the standard traditional integration, the spherical harmonic (SPH) spectral coefficients integration, and the singular value decomposition (SVD) on the spherical harmonic methods. A comparison among the various methods shows that both SPH and SVD approaches provide remarkable agreement with the standard moment integration method.

Survivorship analysis when cure is a possibility: a Monte Carlo study.

PubMed

Goldman, A I

1984-01-01

Parametric survivorship analyses of clinical trials commonly involves the assumption of a hazard function constant with time. When the empirical curve obviously levels off, one can modify the hazard function model by use of a Gompertz or Weibull distribution with hazard decreasing over time. Some cancer treatments are thought to cure some patients within a short time of initiation. Then, instead of all patients having the same hazard, decreasing over time, a biologically more appropriate model assumes that an unknown proportion (1 - pi) have constant high risk whereas the remaining proportion (pi) have essentially no risk. This paper discusses the maximum likelihood estimation of pi and the power curves of the likelihood ratio test. Monte Carlo studies provide results for a variety of simulated trials; empirical data illustrate the methods.

DistributedFBA.jl: High-level, high-performance flux balance analysis in Julia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heirendt, Laurent; Thiele, Ines; Fleming, Ronan M. T.

Flux balance analysis and its variants are widely used methods for predicting steady-state reaction rates in biochemical reaction networks. The exploration of high dimensional networks with such methods is currently hampered by software performance limitations. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on a subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on amore » subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes.« less

DistributedFBA.jl: High-level, high-performance flux balance analysis in Julia

DOE PAGES

Heirendt, Laurent; Thiele, Ines; Fleming, Ronan M. T.

2017-01-16

Flux balance analysis and its variants are widely used methods for predicting steady-state reaction rates in biochemical reaction networks. The exploration of high dimensional networks with such methods is currently hampered by software performance limitations. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on a subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes. DistributedFBA.jl is a high-level, high-performance, open-source implementation of flux balance analysis in Julia. It is tailored to solve multiple flux balance analyses on amore » subset or all the reactions of large and huge-scale networks, on any number of threads or nodes.« less

Data synthesis and display programs for wave distribution function analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storey, L. R. O.; Yeh, K. J.

1992-01-01

At the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) software was written to synthesize and display artificial data for use in developing the methodology of wave distribution analysis. The software comprises two separate interactive programs, one for data synthesis and the other for data display.

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): Analysis of the Electrical Power Distribution and Control Subsystem, Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmeckpeper, K. R.

1987-01-01

The results of the Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA) of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Critical Items List (CIL) are presented. The IOA approach features a top-down analysis of the hardware to determine failure modes, criticality, and potential critical items. To preserve independence, this analysis was accomplished without reliance upon the results contained within the NASA FMEA/CIL documentation. This report documents the independent analysis results corresponding to the Orbiter Electrical Power Distribution and Control (EPD and C) hardware. The EPD and C hardware performs the functions of distributing, sensing, and controlling 28 volt DC power and of inverting, distributing, sensing, and controlling 117 volt 400 Hz AC power to all Orbiter subsystems from the three fuel cells in the Electrical Power Generation (EPG) subsystem. Volume 2 continues the presentation of IOA analysis worksheets and contains the potential critical items list.

A distributed analysis and visualization system for model and observational data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilhelmson, Robert B.

1994-01-01

Software was developed with NASA support to aid in the analysis and display of the massive amounts of data generated from satellites, observational field programs, and from model simulations. This software was developed in the context of the PATHFINDER (Probing ATmospHeric Flows in an Interactive and Distributed EnviRonment) Project. The overall aim of this project is to create a flexible, modular, and distributed environment for data handling, modeling simulations, data analysis, and visualization of atmospheric and fluid flows. Software completed with NASA support includes GEMPAK analysis, data handling, and display modules for which collaborators at NASA had primary responsibility, and prototype software modules for three-dimensional interactive and distributed control and display as well as data handling, for which NSCA was responsible. Overall process control was handled through a scientific and visualization application builder from Silicon Graphics known as the Iris Explorer. In addition, the GEMPAK related work (GEMVIS) was also ported to the Advanced Visualization System (AVS) application builder. Many modules were developed to enhance those already available in Iris Explorer including HDF file support, improved visualization and display, simple lattice math, and the handling of metadata through development of a new grid datatype. Complete source and runtime binaries along with on-line documentation is available via the World Wide Web at: http://redrock.ncsa.uiuc.edu/ PATHFINDER/pathre12/top/top.html.

Performance Analysis of an Actor-Based Distributed Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeffler, James D.

1998-01-01

Object-oriented design of simulation programs appears to be very attractive because of the natural association of components in the simulated system with objects. There is great potential in distributing the simulation across several computers for the purpose of parallel computation and its consequent handling of larger problems in less elapsed time. One approach to such a design is to use "actors", that is, active objects with their own thread of control. Because these objects execute concurrently, communication is via messages. This is in contrast to an object-oriented design using passive objects where communication between objects is via method calls (direct calls when they are in the same address space and remote procedure calls when they are in different address spaces or different machines). This paper describes a performance analysis program for the evaluation of a design for distributed simulations based upon actors.

A Study of ATLAS Grid Performance for Distributed Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panitkin, Sergey; Fine, Valery; Wenaus, Torre

2012-12-01

In the past two years the ATLAS Collaboration at the LHC has collected a large volume of data and published a number of ground breaking papers. The Grid-based ATLAS distributed computing infrastructure played a crucial role in enabling timely analysis of the data. We will present a study of the performance and usage of the ATLAS Grid as platform for physics analysis in 2011. This includes studies of general properties as well as timing properties of user jobs (wait time, run time, etc). These studies are based on mining of data archived by the PanDA workload management system.

Mechanical Network in Titin Immunoglobulin from Force Distribution Analysis

PubMed Central

Wilmanns, Matthias; Gräter, Frauke

2009-01-01

The role of mechanical force in cellular processes is increasingly revealed by single molecule experiments and simulations of force-induced transitions in proteins. How the applied force propagates within proteins determines their mechanical behavior yet remains largely unknown. We present a new method based on molecular dynamics simulations to disclose the distribution of strain in protein structures, here for the newly determined high-resolution crystal structure of I27, a titin immunoglobulin (IG) domain. We obtain a sparse, spatially connected, and highly anisotropic mechanical network. This allows us to detect load-bearing motifs composed of interstrand hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic core interactions, including parts distal to the site to which force was applied. The role of the force distribution pattern for mechanical stability is tested by in silico unfolding of I27 mutants. We then compare the observed force pattern to the sparse network of coevolved residues found in this family. We find a remarkable overlap, suggesting the force distribution to reflect constraints for the evolutionary design of mechanical resistance in the IG family. The force distribution analysis provides a molecular interpretation of coevolution and opens the road to the study of the mechanism of signal propagation in proteins in general. PMID:19282960

Development of a web service for analysis in a distributed network.

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaoqian; Wu, Yuan; Marsolo, Keith; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2014-01-01

We describe functional specifications and practicalities in the software development process for a web service that allows the construction of the multivariate logistic regression model, Grid Logistic Regression (GLORE), by aggregating partial estimates from distributed sites, with no exchange of patient-level data. We recently developed and published a web service for model construction and data analysis in a distributed environment. This recent paper provided an overview of the system that is useful for users, but included very few details that are relevant for biomedical informatics developers or network security personnel who may be interested in implementing this or similar systems. We focus here on how the system was conceived and implemented. We followed a two-stage development approach by first implementing the backbone system and incrementally improving the user experience through interactions with potential users during the development. Our system went through various stages such as concept proof, algorithm validation, user interface development, and system testing. We used the Zoho Project management system to track tasks and milestones. We leveraged Google Code and Apache Subversion to share code among team members, and developed an applet-servlet architecture to support the cross platform deployment. During the development process, we encountered challenges such as Information Technology (IT) infrastructure gaps and limited team experience in user-interface design. We figured out solutions as well as enabling factors to support the translation of an innovative privacy-preserving, distributed modeling technology into a working prototype. Using GLORE (a distributed model that we developed earlier) as a pilot example, we demonstrated the feasibility of building and integrating distributed modeling technology into a usable framework that can support privacy-preserving, distributed data analysis among researchers at geographically dispersed institutes.

Development of a Web Service for Analysis in a Distributed Network

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xiaoqian; Wu, Yuan; Marsolo, Keith; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2014-01-01

Objective: We describe functional specifications and practicalities in the software development process for a web service that allows the construction of the multivariate logistic regression model, Grid Logistic Regression (GLORE), by aggregating partial estimates from distributed sites, with no exchange of patient-level data. Background: We recently developed and published a web service for model construction and data analysis in a distributed environment. This recent paper provided an overview of the system that is useful for users, but included very few details that are relevant for biomedical informatics developers or network security personnel who may be interested in implementing this or similar systems. We focus here on how the system was conceived and implemented. Methods: We followed a two-stage development approach by first implementing the backbone system and incrementally improving the user experience through interactions with potential users during the development. Our system went through various stages such as concept proof, algorithm validation, user interface development, and system testing. We used the Zoho Project management system to track tasks and milestones. We leveraged Google Code and Apache Subversion to share code among team members, and developed an applet-servlet architecture to support the cross platform deployment. Discussion: During the development process, we encountered challenges such as Information Technology (IT) infrastructure gaps and limited team experience in user-interface design. We figured out solutions as well as enabling factors to support the translation of an innovative privacy-preserving, distributed modeling technology into a working prototype. Conclusion: Using GLORE (a distributed model that we developed earlier) as a pilot example, we demonstrated the feasibility of building and integrating distributed modeling technology into a usable framework that can support privacy-preserving, distributed data analysis among

Derived distribution of floods based on the concept of partial area coverage with a climatic appeal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, Vito; Fiorentino, Mauro

2000-02-01

A new rationale for deriving the probability distribution of floods and help in understanding the physical processes underlying the distribution itself is presented. On the basis of this a model that presents a number of new assumptions is developed. The basic ideas are as follows: (1) The peak direct streamflow Q can always be expressed as the product of two random variates, namely, the average runoff per unit area ua and the peak contributing area a; (2) the distribution of ua conditional on a can be related to that of the rainfall depth occurring in a duration equal to a characteristic response time тa of the contributing part of the basin; and (3) тa is assumed to vary with a according to a power law. Consequently, the probability density function of Q can be found as the integral, over the total basin area A of that of a times the density function of ua given a. It is suggested that ua can be expressed as a fraction of the excess rainfall and that the annual flood distribution can be related to that of Q by the hypothesis that the flood occurrence process is Poissonian. In the proposed model it is assumed, as an exploratory attempt, that a and ua are gamma and Weibull distributed, respectively. The model was applied to the annual flood series of eight gauged basins in Basilicata (southern Italy) with catchment areas ranging from 40 to 1600 km2. The results showed strong physical consistence as the parameters tended to assume values in good agreement with well-consolidated geomorphologic knowledge and suggested a new key to understanding the climatic control of the probability distribution of floods.

Scale-dependent measurements of meteorite strength: Implications for asteroid fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotto-Figueroa, Desireé; Asphaug, Erik; Garvie, Laurence A. J.; Rai, Ashwin; Johnston, Joel; Borkowski, Luke; Datta, Siddhant; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Morris, Melissa A.

2016-10-01

Measuring the strengths of asteroidal materials is important for developing mitigation strategies for potential Earth impactors and for understanding properties of in situ materials on asteroids during human and robotic exploration. Studies of asteroid disruption and fragmentation have typically used the strengths determined from terrestrial analog materials, although questions have been raised regarding the suitability of these materials. The few published measurements of meteorite strength are typically significantly greater than those estimated from the stratospheric breakup of meter-sized meteoroids. Given the paucity of relevant strength data, the scale-varying strength properties of meteoritic and asteroidal materials are poorly constrained. Based on our uniaxial failure studies of centimeter-sized cubes of a carbonaceous and ordinary chondrite, we develop the first Weibull failure distribution analysis of meteorites. This Weibull distribution projected to meter scales, overlaps the strengths determined from asteroidal airbursts and can be used to predict properties of to the 100 m scale. In addition, our analysis shows that meter-scale boulders on asteroids are significantly weaker than small pieces of meteorites, while large meteorites surviving on Earth are selected by attrition. Further, the common use of terrestrial analog materials to predict scale-dependent strength properties significantly overestimates the strength of meter-sized asteroidal materials and therefore is unlikely well suited for the modeling of asteroid disruption and fragmentation. Given the strength scale-dependence determined for carbonaceous and ordinary chondrite meteorites, our results suggest that boulders of similar composition on asteroids will have compressive strengths significantly less than typical terrestrial rocks.

Evolution of the ATLAS PanDA Production and Distributed Analysis System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maeno, T.; De, K.; Wenaus, T.

2012-12-13

Evolution of the ATLAS PanDA Production and Distributed Analysis System T Maeno1,5, K De2, T Wenaus1, P Nilsson2, R Walker3, A Stradling2, V Fine1, M Potekhin1, S Panitkin1 and G Compostella4 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Volume 396, Part 3 Article PDF References Citations Metrics 101 Total downloads Cited by 8 articles Turn on MathJax Share this article Article information Abstract The PanDA (Production and Distributed Analysis) system has been developed to meet ATLAS production and analysis requirements for a data-driven workload management system capable of operating at LHC data processing scale. PanDAmore » has performed well with high reliability and robustness during the two years of LHC data-taking, while being actively evolved to meet the rapidly changing requirements for analysis use cases. We will present an overview of system evolution including automatic rebrokerage and reattempt for analysis jobs, adaptation for the CernVM File System, support for the multi-cloud model through which Tier-2 sites act as members of multiple clouds, pledged resource management and preferential brokerage, and monitoring improvements. We will also describe results from the analysis of two years of PanDA usage statistics, current issues, and plans for the future.« less

An empirical analysis of the distribution of overshoots in a stationary Gaussian stochastic process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter, M. C.; Madison, M. W.

1973-01-01

The frequency distribution of overshoots in a stationary Gaussian stochastic process is analyzed. The primary processes involved in this analysis are computer simulation and statistical estimation. Computer simulation is used to simulate stationary Gaussian stochastic processes that have selected autocorrelation functions. An analysis of the simulation results reveals a frequency distribution for overshoots with a functional dependence on the mean and variance of the process. Statistical estimation is then used to estimate the mean and variance of a process. It is shown that for an autocorrelation function, the mean and the variance for the number of overshoots, a frequency distribution for overshoots can be estimated.

Life and reliability models for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Knorr, R. J.; Coy, J. J.

1982-01-01

Computer models of life and reliability are presented for planetary gear trains with a fixed ring gear, input applied to the sun gear, and output taken from the planet arm. For this transmission the input and output shafts are co-axial and the input and output torques are assumed to be coaxial with these shafts. Thrust and side loading are neglected. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distributions of the individual reliabilities of the in transmission components. The system model is also a Weibull distribution. The load versus life model for the system is a power relationship as the models for the individual components. The load-life exponent and basic dynamic capacity are developed as functions of the components capacities. The models are used to compare three and four planet, 150 kW (200 hp), 5:1 reduction transmissions with 1500 rpm input speed to illustrate their use.

Experimental investigation of mode I fracture for brittle tube-shaped particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stasiak, Marta; Combe, Gaël; Desrues, Jacques; Richefeu, Vincent; Villard, Pascal; Armand, Gilles; Zghondi, Jad

2017-06-01

We focus herein on the mechanical behavior of highly crushable grains. The object of our interest, named shell, is a hollow cylinder grain with ring cross-section, made of baked clay. The objective is to model the fragmentation of such shells, by means of discrete element (DE) approach. To this end, fracture modes I (opening fracture) and II (in-plane shear fracture) have to be investigated experimentally. This paper is essentially dedicated to mode I fracture. Therefore, a campaign of Brazilian-like compression tests, that result in crack opening, has been performed. The distribution of the occurrence of tensile strength is shown to obey a Weibull distribution for the studied shells, and Weibull's modulus was quantified. Finally, an estimate of the numerical/physical parameters required in a DE model (local strength), is proposed on the basis of the energy required to fracture through a given surface in mode I or II.

Three-dimensional modeling and quantitative analysis of gap junction distributions in cardiac tissue.

PubMed

Lackey, Daniel P; Carruth, Eric D; Lasher, Richard A; Boenisch, Jan; Sachse, Frank B; Hitchcock, Robert W

2011-11-01

Gap junctions play a fundamental role in intercellular communication in cardiac tissue. Various types of heart disease including hypertrophy and ischemia are associated with alterations of the spatial arrangement of gap junctions. Previous studies applied two-dimensional optical and electron-microscopy to visualize gap junction arrangements. In normal cardiomyocytes, gap junctions were primarily found at cell ends, but can be found also in more central regions. In this study, we extended these approaches toward three-dimensional reconstruction of gap junction distributions based on high-resolution scanning confocal microscopy and image processing. We developed methods for quantitative characterization of gap junction distributions based on analysis of intensity profiles along the principal axes of myocytes. The analyses characterized gap junction polarization at cell ends and higher-order statistical image moments of intensity profiles. The methodology was tested in rat ventricular myocardium. Our analysis yielded novel quantitative data on gap junction distributions. In particular, the analysis demonstrated that the distributions exhibit significant variability with respect to polarization, skewness, and kurtosis. We suggest that this methodology provides a quantitative alternative to current approaches based on visual inspection, with applications in particular in characterization of engineered and diseased myocardium. Furthermore, we propose that these data provide improved input for computational modeling of cardiac conduction.

Statistical and Spectral Analysis of Wind Characteristics Relevant to Wind Energy Assessment Using Tower Measurements in Complex Terrain

DOE PAGES

Belu, Radian; Koracin, Darko

2013-01-01

The main objective of the study was to investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of the wind speed and direction in complex terrain that are relevant to wind energy assessment and development, as well as to wind energy system operation, management, and grid integration. Wind data from five tall meteorological towers located in Western Nevada, USA, operated from August 2003 to March 2008, used in the analysis. The multiannual average wind speeds did not show significant increased trend with increasing elevation, while the turbulence intensity slowly decreased with an increase were the average wind speed. The wind speed and direction weremore » modeled using the Weibull and the von Mises distribution functions. The correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multiday periodicity with increasing lag periods. The spectral analysis shows significant annual periodicity with similar characteristics at all locations. The relatively high correlations between the towers and small range of the computed turbulence intensity indicate that wind variability is dominated by the regional synoptic processes. Knowledge and information about daily, seasonal, and annual wind periodicities are very important for wind energy resource assessment, wind power plant operation, management, and grid integration.« less

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

Performance of soil particle-size distribution models for describing deposited soils adjacent to constructed dams in the China Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Pei; Shao, Ming-an; Horton, Robert

2011-02-01

Soil particle-size distributions (PSD) have been used to estimate soil hydraulic properties. Various parametric PSD models have been proposed to describe the soil PSD from sparse experimental data. It is important to determine which PSD model best represents specific soils. Fourteen PSD models were examined in order to determine the best model for representing the deposited soils adjacent to dams in the China Loess Plateau; these were: Skaggs (S-1, S-2, and S-3), fractal (FR), Jaky (J), Lima and Silva (LS), Morgan (M), Gompertz (G), logarithm (L), exponential (E), log-exponential (LE), Weibull (W), van Genuchten type (VG) as well as Fredlund (F) models. Four-hundred and eighty samples were obtained from soils deposited in the Liudaogou catchment. The coefficient of determination (R 2), the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the modified AIC (mAIC) were used. Based upon R 2 and AIC, the three- and four-parameter models were both good at describing the PSDs of deposited soils, and the LE, FR, and E models were the poorest. However, the mAIC in conjunction with R 2 and AIC results indicated that the W model was optimum for describing PSD of the deposited soils for emphasizing the effect of parameter number. This analysis was also helpful for finding out which model is the best one. Our results are applicable to the China Loess Plateau.

The Evolution of Grain Size Distribution in Explosive Rock Fragmentation - Sequential Fragmentation Theory Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheu, B.; Fowler, A. C.

2015-12-01

Fragmentation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in many natural and engineering systems. It is the process by which an initially competent medium, solid or liquid, is broken up into a population of constituents. Examples occur in collisions and impacts of asteroids/meteorites, explosion driven fragmentation of munitions on a battlefield, as well as of magma in a volcanic conduit causing explosive volcanic eruptions and break-up of liquid drops. Besides the mechanism of fragmentation the resulting frequency-size distribution of the generated constituents is of central interest. Initially their distributions were fitted empirically using lognormal, Rosin-Rammler and Weibull distributions (e.g. Brown & Wohletz 1995). The sequential fragmentation theory (Brown 1989, Wohletz at al. 1989, Wohletz & Brown 1995) and the application of fractal theory to fragmentation products (Turcotte 1986, Perfect 1997, Perugini & Kueppers 2012) attempt to overcome this shortcoming by providing a more physical basis for the applied distribution. Both rely on an at least partially scale-invariant and thus self-similar random fragmentation process. Here we provide a stochastic model for the evolution of grain size distribution during the explosion process. Our model is based on laboratory experiments in which volcanic rock samples explode naturally when rapidly depressurized from initial pressures of several MPa to ambient conditions. The physics governing this fragmentation process has been successfully modelled and the observed fragmentation pattern could be numerically reproduced (Fowler et al. 2010). The fragmentation of these natural rocks leads to grain size distributions which vary depending on the experimental starting conditions. Our model provides a theoretical description of these different grain size distributions. Our model combines a sequential model of the type outlined by Turcotte (1986), but generalized to cater for the explosive process appropriate here, in particular by

An investigation into the use of surface waves for the real-time inspection of polymer composites during fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linstrom, Elizabeth Jane

A new approach to the nondestructive evaluation of polymer matrix/graphite fiber composites is presented. This technique permits the determination of the top ply bond strength of a laminate based on the results of ultrasonic testing. This technique is designed to be used for the real-time, nondestructive evaluation of composites during tape laying. By separately bonding the top ply of thermoset and thermoplastic polymer composite laminates, a poor ply bond was achieved solely at the interface of the top ply and the rest of the laminate. Using angled incidence, a 5 MHz, 4 musecond ultrasonic pulse was induced into the composite samples. This created waves traveling along the surface of the composite samples that were picked up by a receiving transducer. The received signal was cross-correlated with an artificially constructed replica of the input signal. The maximum amplitude of the cross-correlated signal was recorded. The cross-correlated signal was then converted to the frequency spectra using a fast Fourier transform. The maximum amplitude of the frequency spectra was then recorded. These measurements were repeated at 18 to 30 different locations on each composite sample. The resulting collection of maximum amplitudes of cross-correlated signals and frequency spectra were fit to two parameter Weibull distributions. The composite samples were destructively evaluated using a flat-wise tensile test. The B-basis values of the ultrasonic data Weibull distributions were compared to the B-basis values of the Weibull distribution of the strength data. A good correlation was found.

Fatigue stipulation of bulk-fill composites: An in vitro appraisal.

PubMed

Vidhawan, Shruti A; Yap, Adrian U; Ornaghi, Barbara P; Banas, Agnieszka; Banas, Krzysztof; Neo, Jennifer C; Pfeifer, Carmem S; Rosa, Vinicius

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to determine the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters of bulk-fill resin based composites. The strength degradation over time of the materials was also assessed by strength-probability-time (SPT) analysis. Three bulk-fill [Tetric EvoCeram Bulk Fill (TBF); X-tra fil (XTR); Filtek Bulk-fill flowable (BFL)] and a conventional one [Filtek Z250 (Z250)] were studied. Seventy five disk-shaped specimens (12mm in diameter and 1mm thick) were prepared by inserting the uncured composites in a stainless steel split mold followed by photoactivation (1200mW/cm(2)/20s) and storage in distilled water (37°C/24h). Degree of conversion was evaluated in five specimens by analysis of FT-IR spectra obtained in the mid-IR region. The SCG parameters n (stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient) and σf0 (scaling parameter) were obtained by testing ten specimens in each of the five stress rates: 10(-2), 10(-1), 10(0), 10(1) and 10(2)MPa/s using a piston-on-three-balls device. Weibull parameter m (Weibull modulus) and σf0 (characteristic strength) were obtained by testing additional 20 specimens at 1MPa/s. Strength-probability-time (SPT) diagrams were constructed by merging SCG and Weibull parameters. BFL and TBF presented higher n values, respectively (40.1 and 25.5). Z250 showed the highest (157.02MPa) and TBF the lowest (110.90MPa) σf0 value. Weibull analysis showed m (Weibull modulus) of 9.7, 8.6, 9.7 and 8.9 for TBF, BFL, XTR and Z250, respectively. SPT diagram for 5% probability of failure showed strength decrease of 18% for BFL, 25% for TBF, 32% for XTR and 36% for Z250, respectively, after 5 years as compared to 1 year. The reliability and decadence of strength over time for bulk-fill resin composites studied are, at least, comparable to conventional composites. BFL shows the highest fatigue resistance under all simulations followed by TBF, while XTR was at par with Z250. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier

Multi-objective and Perishable Fuzzy Inventory Models Having Weibull Life-time With Time Dependent Demand, Demand Dependent Production and Time Varying Holding Cost: A Possibility/Necessity Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, Savita; Mondal, Seema Sarkar

2010-10-01

A multi-objective inventory model of deteriorating item has been developed with Weibull rate of decay, time dependent demand, demand dependent production, time varying holding cost allowing shortages in fuzzy environments for non- integrated and integrated businesses. Here objective is to maximize the profit from different deteriorating items with space constraint. The impreciseness of inventory parameters and goals for non-integrated business has been expressed by linear membership functions. The compromised solutions are obtained by different fuzzy optimization methods. To incorporate the relative importance of the objectives, the different cardinal weights crisp/fuzzy have been assigned. The models are illustrated with numerical examples and results of models with crisp/fuzzy weights are compared. The result for the model assuming them to be integrated business is obtained by using Generalized Reduced Gradient Method (GRG). The fuzzy integrated model with imprecise inventory cost is formulated to optimize the possibility necessity measure of fuzzy goal of the objective function by using credibility measure of fuzzy event by taking fuzzy expectation. The results of crisp/fuzzy integrated model are illustrated with numerical examples and results are compared.

The choice of prior distribution for a covariance matrix in multivariate meta-analysis: a simulation study.

PubMed

Hurtado Rúa, Sandra M; Mazumdar, Madhu; Strawderman, Robert L

2015-12-30

Bayesian meta-analysis is an increasingly important component of clinical research, with multivariate meta-analysis a promising tool for studies with multiple endpoints. Model assumptions, including the choice of priors, are crucial aspects of multivariate Bayesian meta-analysis (MBMA) models. In a given model, two different prior distributions can lead to different inferences about a particular parameter. A simulation study was performed in which the impact of families of prior distributions for the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal random effects MBMA model was analyzed. Inferences about effect sizes were not particularly sensitive to prior choice, but the related covariance estimates were. A few families of prior distributions with small relative biases, tight mean squared errors, and close to nominal coverage for the effect size estimates were identified. Our results demonstrate the need for sensitivity analysis and suggest some guidelines for choosing prior distributions in this class of problems. The MBMA models proposed here are illustrated in a small meta-analysis example from the periodontal field and a medium meta-analysis from the study of stroke. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Local structure studies of materials using pair distribution function analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Joseph W.

A collection of pair distribution function studies on various materials is presented in this dissertation. In each case, local structure information of interest pushes the current limits of what these studies can accomplish. The goal is to provide insight into the individual material behaviors as well as to investigate ways to expand the current limits of PDF analysis. Where possible, I provide a framework for how PDF analysis might be applied to a wider set of material phenomena. Throughout the dissertation, I discuss 0 the capabilities of the PDF method to provide information pertaining to a material's structure and properties, ii) current limitations in the conventional approach to PDF analysis, iii) possible solutions to overcome certain limitations in PDF analysis, and iv) suggestions for future work to expand and improve the capabilities PDF analysis.

Modelling and analysis of solar cell efficiency distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasmer, Sven; Greulich, Johannes

2017-08-01

We present an approach to model the distribution of solar cell efficiencies achieved in production lines based on numerical simulations, metamodeling and Monte Carlo simulations. We validate our methodology using the example of an industrial feasible p-type multicrystalline silicon “passivated emitter and rear cell” process. Applying the metamodel, we investigate the impact of each input parameter on the distribution of cell efficiencies in a variance-based sensitivity analysis, identifying the parameters and processes that need to be improved and controlled most accurately. We show that if these could be optimized, the mean cell efficiencies of our examined cell process would increase from 17.62% ± 0.41% to 18.48% ± 0.09%. As the method relies on advanced characterization and simulation techniques, we furthermore introduce a simplification that enhances applicability by only requiring two common measurements of finished cells. The presented approaches can be especially helpful for ramping-up production, but can also be applied to enhance established manufacturing.

Step-stress analysis for predicting dental ceramic reliability

PubMed Central

Borba, Márcia; Cesar, Paulo F.; Griggs, Jason A.; Bona, Álvaro Della

2013-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that step-stress analysis is effective to predict the reliability of an alumina-based dental ceramic (VITA In-Ceram AL blocks) subjected to a mechanical aging test. Methods Bar-shaped ceramic specimens were fabricated, polished to 1µm finish and divided into 3 groups (n=10): (1) step-stress accelerating test; (2) flexural strength- control; (3) flexural strength- mechanical aging. Specimens from group 1 were tested in an electromagnetic actuator (MTS Evolution) using a three-point flexure fixture (frequency: 2Hz; R=0.1) in 37°C water bath. Each specimen was subjected to an individual stress profile, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. A cumulative damage model with an inverse power law lifetime-stress relation and Weibull lifetime distribution were used to fit the fatigue data. The data were used to predict the stress level and number of cycles for mechanical aging (group 3). Groups 2 and 3 were tested for three-point flexural strength (σ) in a universal testing machine with 1.0 s in 37°C water. Data were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney Rank Sum test. Results Step-stress data analysis showed that the profile most likely to weaken the specimens without causing fracture during aging (95% CI: 0–14% failures) was: 80 MPa stress amplitude and 105 cycles. The median σ values (MPa) for groups 2 (493±54) and 3 (423±103) were statistically different (p=0.009). Significance The aging profile determined by step-stress analysis was effective to reduce alumina ceramic strength as predicted by the reliability estimate, confirming the study hypothesis. PMID:23827018

Statistical analysis of secondary particle distributions in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguire, Stephen C.

1987-01-01

The use is described of several statistical techniques to characterize structure in the angular distributions of secondary particles from nucleus-nucleus collisions in the energy range 24 to 61 GeV/nucleon. The objective of this work was to determine whether there are correlations between emitted particle intensity and angle that may be used to support the existence of the quark gluon plasma. The techniques include chi-square null hypothesis tests, the method of discrete Fourier transform analysis, and fluctuation analysis. We have also used the method of composite unit vectors to test for azimuthal asymmetry in a data set of 63 JACEE-3 events. Each method is presented in a manner that provides the reader with some practical detail regarding its application. Of those events with relatively high statistics, Fe approaches 0 at 55 GeV/nucleon was found to possess an azimuthal distribution with a highly non-random structure. No evidence of non-statistical fluctuations was found in the pseudo-rapidity distributions of the events studied. It is seen that the most effective application of these methods relies upon the availability of many events or single events that possess very high multiplicities.

Statistical analysis of road-vehicle-driver interaction as an enabler to designing behavioural models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakravarty, T.; Chowdhury, A.; Ghose, A.; Bhaumik, C.; Balamuralidhar, P.

2014-03-01

Telematics form an important technology enabler for intelligent transportation systems. By deploying on-board diagnostic devices, the signatures of vehicle vibration along with its location and time are recorded. Detailed analyses of the collected signatures offer deep insights into the state of the objects under study. Towards that objective, we carried out experiments by deploying telematics device in one of the office bus that ferries employees to office and back. Data is being collected from 3-axis accelerometer, GPS, speed and the time for all the journeys. In this paper, we present initial results of the above exercise by applying statistical methods to derive information through systematic analysis of the data collected over four months. It is demonstrated that the higher order derivative of the measured Z axis acceleration samples display the properties Weibull distribution when the time axis is replaced by the amplitude of such processed acceleration data. Such an observation offers us a method to predict future behaviour where deviations from prediction are classified as context-based aberrations or progressive degradation of the system. In addition we capture the relationship between speed of the vehicle and median of the jerk energy samples using regression analysis. Such results offer an opportunity to develop a robust method to model road-vehicle interaction thereby enabling us to predict such like driving behaviour and condition based maintenance etc.

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from postmortem human subject tests under axial impacts.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Szabo, Aniko

2014-01-01

Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. The study reexamined lower leg postmortem human subjects (PMHS) data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and noninjury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the covariable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike information criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. The mean age, stature, and weight were 58.2±15.1 years, 1.74±0.08 m, and 74.9±13.8 kg, respectively. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other 2 distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-olds at 5, 25, and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45, and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 k

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from post-mortem human subject tests under axial impacts

PubMed Central

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W.J.; Pintar, Frank A.; Szabo, Aniko

2015-01-01

Objective Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. Methods The study re-examined lower leg PMHS data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and non-injury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the co-variable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. Results The mean age, stature and weight: 58.2 ± 15.1 years, 1.74 ± 0.08 m and 74.9 ± 13.8 kg. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other two distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-old at five, 25 and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45 and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk

Optimal methods for fitting probability distributions to propagule retention time in studies of zoochorous dispersal.

PubMed

Viana, Duarte S; Santamaría, Luis; Figuerola, Jordi

2016-02-01

Propagule retention time is a key factor in determining propagule dispersal distance and the shape of "seed shadows". Propagules dispersed by animal vectors are either ingested and retained in the gut until defecation or attached externally to the body until detachment. Retention time is a continuous variable, but it is commonly measured at discrete time points, according to pre-established sampling time-intervals. Although parametric continuous distributions have been widely fitted to these interval-censored data, the performance of different fitting methods has not been evaluated. To investigate the performance of five different fitting methods, we fitted parametric probability distributions to typical discretized retention-time data with known distribution using as data-points either the lower, mid or upper bounds of sampling intervals, as well as the cumulative distribution of observed values (using either maximum likelihood or non-linear least squares for parameter estimation); then compared the estimated and original distributions to assess the accuracy of each method. We also assessed the robustness of these methods to variations in the sampling procedure (sample size and length of sampling time-intervals). Fittings to the cumulative distribution performed better for all types of parametric distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions) and were more robust to variations in sample size and sampling time-intervals. These estimated distributions had negligible deviations of up to 0.045 in cumulative probability of retention times (according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic) in relation to original distributions from which propagule retention time was simulated, supporting the overall accuracy of this fitting method. In contrast, fitting the sampling-interval bounds resulted in greater deviations that ranged from 0.058 to 0.273 in cumulative probability of retention times, which may introduce considerable biases in parameter estimates. We

The Effect of Sr Modifier Additions on Double Oxide Film Defects in 2L99 Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qi; Griffiths, W. D.

2017-11-01

In this paper, Sr modifier (300 ppm) was added to 2L99 alloy sand castings to investigate its effect on bifilm defects in the castings. Two different sand molds were used in this study, with good and bad running system designs, to introduce different amounts of bifilm defects into the castings. The mechanical properties of the modified 2L99 castings were compared to the properties of unmodified castings and showed that with high bifilm defect contents (H) the Sr addition reduced the Weibull modulus of the UTS by 67 pct and the Position Parameter by 5 pct, and introduced a bimodal distribution into the Weibull plot of the pct Elongation. However, for castings with low bifilm defect content (L), the Weibull moduli of both the UTS and pct Elongation were significantly improved (by 78 and 73 pct, respectively) with the addition of Sr. The Position Parameter of the pct Elongation was improved by 135 pct. The results suggested that a desirable modification effect can only be achieved while the bifilm defect content in a casting was low.

GPS FOM Chimney Analysis using Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, Rick; Frisbee, Joe; Saha, Kanan

2004-01-01

Many a time an objective of a statistical analysis is to estimate a limit value like 3-sigma 95% confidence upper limit from a data sample. The generalized Extreme Value Distribution method can be profitably employed in many situations for such an estimate. . .. It is well known that according to the Central Limit theorem the mean value of a large data set is normally distributed irrespective of the distribution of the data from which the mean value is derived. In a somewhat similar fashion it is observed that many times the extreme value of a data set has a distribution that can be formulated with a Generalized Distribution. In space shuttle entry with 3-string GPS navigation the Figure Of Merit (FOM) value gives a measure of GPS navigated state accuracy. A GPS navigated state with FOM of 6 or higher is deemed unacceptable and is said to form a FOM 6 or higher chimney. A FOM chimney is a period of time during which the FOM value stays higher than 5. A longer period of FOM of value 6 or higher causes navigated state to accumulate more error for a lack of state update. For an acceptable landing it is imperative that the state error remains low and hence at low altitude during entry GPS data of FOM greater than 5 must not last more than 138 seconds. I To test the GPS performAnce many entry test cases were simulated at the Avionics Development Laboratory. Only high value FoM chimneys are consequential. The extreme value statistical technique is applied to analyze high value FOM chimneys. The Maximum likelihood method is used to determine parameters that characterize the GEV distribution, and then the limit value statistics are estimated.

Aeroelastic Analysis of a Distributed Electric Propulsion Wing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, Steven J.; Stanford, Bret K.; Wieseman, Carol D.; Heeg, Jennifer

2017-01-01

An aeroelastic analysis of a prototype distributed electric propulsion wing is presented. Results using MSC Nastran (Registered Trademark) doublet lattice aerodynamics are compared to those based on FUN3D Reynolds Averaged Navier- Stokes aerodynamics. Four levels of grid refinement were examined for the FUN3D solutions and solutions were seen to be well converged. It was found that no oscillatory instability existed, only that of divergence, which occurred in the first bending mode at a dynamic pressure of over three times the flutter clearance condition.

Wind energy potential assessment of Cameroon's coastal regions for the installation of an onshore wind farm.

PubMed

Arreyndip, Nkongho Ayuketang; Joseph, Ebobenow; David, Afungchui

2016-11-01

For the future installation of a wind farm in Cameroon, the wind energy potentials of three of Cameroon's coastal cities (Kribi, Douala and Limbe) are assessed using NASA average monthly wind data for 31 years (1983-2013) and compared through Weibull statistics. The Weibull parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood, the mean power densities, the maximum energy carrying wind speeds and the most probable wind speeds are also calculated and compared over these three cities. Finally, the cumulative wind speed distributions over the wet and dry seasons are also analyzed. The results show that the shape and scale parameters for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 2.9 and 2.8, 3.9 and 1.8 and 3.08 and 2.58, respectively. The mean power densities through Weibull analysis for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 33.7 W/m2, 8.0 W/m2 and 25.42 W/m2, respectively. Kribi's most probable wind speed and maximum energy carrying wind speed was found to be 2.42 m/s and 3.35 m/s, 2.27 m/s and 3.03 m/s for Limbe and 1.67 m/s and 2.0 m/s for Douala, respectively. Analysis of the wind speed and hence power distribution over the wet and dry seasons shows that in the wet season, August is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while September is the windiest month for Kribi while in the dry season, March is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while February is the windiest month for Kribi. In terms of mean power density, most probable wind speed and wind speed carrying maximum energy, Kribi shows to be the best site for the installation of a wind farm. Generally, the wind speeds at all three locations seem quite low, average wind speeds of all the three studied locations fall below 4.0m/s which is far below the cut-in wind speed of many modern wind turbines. However we recommend the use of low cut-in speed wind turbines like the Savonius for stand alone low energy needs.

Comparison of time-frequency distribution techniques for analysis of spinal somatosensory evoked potential.

PubMed

Hu, Y; Luk, K D; Lu, W W; Holmes, A; Leong, J C

2001-05-01

Spinal somatosensory evoked potential (SSEP) has been employed to monitor the integrity of the spinal cord during surgery. To detect both temporal and spectral changes in SSEP waveforms, an investigation of the application of time-frequency analysis (TFA) techniques was conducted. SSEP signals from 30 scoliosis patients were analysed using different techniques; short time Fourier transform (STFT), Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD), Choi-Williams distribution (CWD), cone-shaped distribution (CSD) and adaptive spectrogram (ADS). The time-frequency distributions (TFD) computed using these methods were assessed and compared with each other. WVD, ADS, CSD and CWD showed better resolution than STFT. Comparing normalised peak widths, CSD showed the sharpest peak width (0.13+/-0.1) in the frequency dimension, and a mean peak width of 0.70+/-0.12 in the time dimension. Both WVD and CWD produced cross-term interference, distorting the TFA distribution, but this was not seen with CSD and ADS. CSD appeared to give a lower mean peak power bias (10.3%+/-6.2%) than ADS (41.8%+/-19.6%). Application of the CSD algorithm showed both good resolution and accurate spectrograms, and is therefore recommended as the most appropriate TFA technique for the analysis of SSEP signals.

Pore space analysis of NAPL distribution in sand-clay media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matmon, D.; Hayden, N.J.

2003-01-01

This paper introduces a conceptual model of clays and non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) at the pore scale that has been developed from a mathematical unit cell model, and direct micromodel observation and measurement of clay-containing porous media. The mathematical model uses a unit cell concept with uniform spherical grains for simulating the sand in the sand-clay matrix (???10% clay). Micromodels made with glass slides and including different clay-containing porous media were used to investigate the two clays (kaolinite and montmorillonite) and NAPL distribution within the pore space. The results were used to understand the distribution of NAPL advancing into initially saturated sand and sand-clay media, and provided a detailed analysis of the pore-scale geometry, pore size distribution, NAPL entry pressures, and the effect of clay on this geometry. Interesting NAPL saturation profiles were observed as a result of the complexity of the pore space geometry with the different packing angles and the presence of clays. The unit cell approach has applications for enhancing the mechanistic understanding and conceptualization, both visually and mathematically, of pore-scale processes such as NAPL and clay distribution. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of Time Phasing Aircraft Development using the Continuous Distribution Function

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Breusch - Pagan test ; the reported p-value of 0.5264 fails to rejects the null hypothesis of constant... Breusch - Pagan Test : P-value – 0.6911 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Shapiro-Wilk W Test Prob. < W: 0.9849 -1...Weibull Scale Parameter β – Constant Variance Breusch - Pagan Test : P-value – 0.5176 Beta Shape Parameter α – Influential Data

Analysis of thrips distribution: application of spatial statistics and Kriging

Treesearch

John Aleong; Bruce L. Parker; Margaret Skinner; Diantha Howard

1991-01-01

Kriging is a statistical technique that provides predictions for spatially and temporally correlated data. Observations of thrips distribution and density in Vermont soils are made in both space and time. Traditional statistical analysis of such data assumes that the counts taken over space and time are independent, which is not necessarily true. Therefore, to analyze...

Preliminary analysis of hub and spoke air freight distribution system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

1978-01-01

A brief analysis is made of the hub and spoke air freight distribution system which would employ less than 15 hub centers world wide with very large advanced distributed-load freighters providing the line-haul delivery between hubs. This system is compared to a more conventional network using conventionally-designed long-haul freighters which travel between numerous major airports. The analysis calculates all of the transportation costs, including handling charges and pickup and delivery costs. The results show that the economics of the hub/spoke system are severely compromised by the extensive use of feeder aircraft to deliver cargo into and from the large freighter terminals. Not only are the higher costs for the smaller feeder airplanes disadvantageous, but their use implies an additional exchange of cargo between modes compared to truck delivery. The conventional system uses far fewer feeder airplanes, and in many cases, none at all. When feeder aircraft are eliminated from the hub/spoke system, however, that system is universally more economical than any conventional system employing smaller line-haul aircraft.

Nonlinear Reduced-Order Analysis with Time-Varying Spatial Loading Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prezekop, Adam

2008-01-01

Oscillating shocks acting in combination with high-intensity acoustic loadings present a challenge to the design of resilient hypersonic flight vehicle structures. This paper addresses some features of this loading condition and certain aspects of a nonlinear reduced-order analysis with emphasis on system identification leading to formation of a robust modal basis. The nonlinear dynamic response of a composite structure subject to the simultaneous action of locally strong oscillating pressure gradients and high-intensity acoustic loadings is considered. The reduced-order analysis used in this work has been previously demonstrated to be both computationally efficient and accurate for time-invariant spatial loading distributions, provided that an appropriate modal basis is used. The challenge of the present study is to identify a suitable basis for loadings with time-varying spatial distributions. Using a proper orthogonal decomposition and modal expansion, it is shown that such a basis can be developed. The basis is made more robust by incrementally expanding it to account for changes in the location, frequency and span of the oscillating pressure gradient.

Strength of a Ceramic Sectored Flexure Specimen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, Andrew A; Duffy, Stephen F; Baker, E. H.

2008-01-01

A new test specimen, defined here as the "sectored flexure strength specimen", was developed to measure the strength of ceramic tubes specifically for circumstances when flaws located at the tube's outer diameter are the strength-limiter and subjected to axial tension. The understanding of such strength-limitation is relevant for when ceramic tubes are subjected to bending or when the internal temperature is hotter than the tube's exterior (e.g., heat exchangers). The specimen is both economically and statistically attractive because eight specimens (eight in the case of this project - but the user is not necessarily limited to eight) were extracted outmore » of each length of tube. An analytic expression for maximum or failure stress, and relationships portraying effective area and effective volume as a function of Weibull modulus were developed. Lastly, it was proven from the testing of two ceramics that the sectored flexure specimen was very effective at producing failures caused by strength-limiting flaws located on the tube's original outer diameter. Keywords: ceramics, strength, sectored flexure specimen, effective area, effective volume, finite-element analysis, Weibull distribution, and fractography.« less

Equations for hydraulic conductivity estimation from particle size distribution: A dimensional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ji-Peng; François, Bertrand; Lambert, Pierre

2017-09-01

Estimating hydraulic conductivity from particle size distribution (PSD) is an important issue for various engineering problems. Classical models such as Hazen model, Beyer model, and Kozeny-Carman model usually regard the grain diameter at 10% passing (d10) as an effective grain size and the effects of particle size uniformity (in Beyer model) or porosity (in Kozeny-Carman model) are sometimes embedded. This technical note applies the dimensional analysis (Buckingham's ∏ theorem) to analyze the relationship between hydraulic conductivity and particle size distribution (PSD). The porosity is regarded as a dependent variable on the grain size distribution in unconsolidated conditions. It indicates that the coefficient of grain size uniformity and a dimensionless group representing the gravity effect, which is proportional to the mean grain volume, are the main two determinative parameters for estimating hydraulic conductivity. Regression analysis is then carried out on a database comprising 431 samples collected from different depositional environments and new equations are developed for hydraulic conductivity estimation. The new equation, validated in specimens beyond the database, shows an improved prediction comparing to using the classic models.

Fractal analysis of the dark matter and gas distributions in the Mare-Nostrum universe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaite, José, E-mail: jose.gaite@upm.es

2010-03-01

We develop a method of multifractal analysis of N-body cosmological simulations that improves on the customary counts-in-cells method by taking special care of the effects of discreteness and large scale homogeneity. The analysis of the Mare-Nostrum simulation with our method provides strong evidence of self-similar multifractal distributions of dark matter and gas, with a halo mass function that is of Press-Schechter type but has a power-law exponent -2, as corresponds to a multifractal. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the dark matter and gas distributions are indistinguishable as multifractals. To determine if there is any gas biasing, we calculate the cross-correlationmore » coefficient, with negative but inconclusive results. Hence, we develop an effective Bayesian analysis connected with information theory, which clearly demonstrates that the gas is biased in a long range of scales, up to the scale of homogeneity. However, entropic measures related to the Bayesian analysis show that this gas bias is small (in a precise sense) and is such that the fractal singularities of both distributions coincide and are identical. We conclude that this common multifractal cosmic web structure is determined by the dynamics and is independent of the initial conditions.« less

Residence times and alluvial architecture of a sediment superslug in response to different flow regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, John A.

2017-10-01

A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes. Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture-laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated

Development of a site analysis tool for distributed wind projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaw, Shawn

The Cadmus Group, Inc., in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Encraft, was awarded a grant from the Department of Energy (DOE) to develop a site analysis tool for distributed wind technologies. As the principal investigator for this project, Mr. Shawn Shaw was responsible for overall project management, direction, and technical approach. The product resulting from this project is the Distributed Wind Site Analysis Tool (DSAT), a software tool for analyzing proposed sites for distributed wind technology (DWT) systems. This user-friendly tool supports the long-term growth and stability of the DWT market by providing reliable, realistic estimatesmore » of site and system energy output and feasibility. DSAT-which is accessible online and requires no purchase or download of software-is available in two account types; Standard: This free account allows the user to analyze a limited number of sites and to produce a system performance report for each; and Professional: For a small annual fee users can analyze an unlimited number of sites, produce system performance reports, and generate other customizable reports containing key information such as visual influence and wind resources. The tool’s interactive maps allow users to create site models that incorporate the obstructions and terrain types present. Users can generate site reports immediately after entering the requisite site information. Ideally, this tool also educates users regarding good site selection and effective evaluation practices.« less

Principal Component Analysis for Normal-Distribution-Valued Symbolic Data.

PubMed

Wang, Huiwen; Chen, Meiling; Shi, Xiaojun; Li, Nan

2016-02-01

This paper puts forward a new approach to principal component analysis (PCA) for normal-distribution-valued symbolic data, which has a vast potential of applications in the economic and management field. We derive a full set of numerical characteristics and variance-covariance structure for such data, which forms the foundation for our analytical PCA approach. Our approach is able to use all of the variance information in the original data than the prevailing representative-type approach in the literature which only uses centers, vertices, etc. The paper also provides an accurate approach to constructing the observations in a PC space based on the linear additivity property of normal distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by simulated numerical experiments. At last, our method is applied to explain the puzzle of risk-return tradeoff in China's stock market.

Reliability Overhaul Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-01

Random variables for the conditional exponential distribution are generated using the inverse transform method. C1) Generate U - UCO,i) (2) Set s - A ln...e - [(x+s - 7)/ n] 0 + [Cx-T)/n]0 c. Random variables from the conditional weibull distribution are generated using the inverse transform method. C1...using a standard normal transformation and the inverse transform method. B - 3 APPENDIX 3 DISTRIBUTIONS SUPPORTED BY THE MODEL (1) Generate Y - PCX S

Job optimization in ATLAS TAG-based distributed analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mambelli, M.; Cranshaw, J.; Gardner, R.; Maeno, T.; Malon, D.; Novak, M.

2010-04-01

The ATLAS experiment is projected to collect over one billion events/year during the first few years of operation. The efficient selection of events for various physics analyses across all appropriate samples presents a significant technical challenge. ATLAS computing infrastructure leverages the Grid to tackle the analysis across large samples by organizing data into a hierarchical structure and exploiting distributed computing to churn through the computations. This includes events at different stages of processing: RAW, ESD (Event Summary Data), AOD (Analysis Object Data), DPD (Derived Physics Data). Event Level Metadata Tags (TAGs) contain information about each event stored using multiple technologies accessible by POOL and various web services. This allows users to apply selection cuts on quantities of interest across the entire sample to compile a subset of events that are appropriate for their analysis. This paper describes new methods for organizing jobs using the TAGs criteria to analyze ATLAS data. It further compares different access patterns to the event data and explores ways to partition the workload for event selection and analysis. Here analysis is defined as a broader set of event processing tasks including event selection and reduction operations ("skimming", "slimming" and "thinning") as well as DPD making. Specifically it compares analysis with direct access to the events (AOD and ESD data) to access mediated by different TAG-based event selections. We then compare different ways of splitting the processing to maximize performance.

A numerical method for the stress analysis of stiffened-shell structures under nonuniform temperature distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heldenfels, Richard R

1951-01-01

A numerical method is presented for the stress analysis of stiffened-shell structures of arbitrary cross section under nonuniform temperature distributions. The method is based on a previously published procedure that is extended to include temperature effects and multicell construction. The application of the method to practical problems is discussed and an illustrative analysis is presented of a two-cell box beam under the combined action of vertical loads and a nonuniform temperature distribution.

A probabilistic method to establish the reliability of carbon-carbon rocket motor nozzles. Volume 3: Stress and reliability analysis of layered composite cylinders under thermal shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heller, R. A.; Thangjitham, S.; Wang, X.

1992-04-01

The state of stress in a cylindrical structure consisting of multiple layers of carbon-carbon composite and subjected to thermal and pressure shock are analyzed using an elasticity approach. The reliability of the structure based on the weakest link concept and the Weibull distribution is also calculated. Coupled thermo-elasticity is first assumed and is shown to be unnecessary for the material considered. The effects of external and internal thermal shock as well as a superimposed pressure shock are examined. It is shown that for the geometry chosen, the structure may fail when exposed to thermal shock alone while a superimposed pressure shock can mitigate the probability of failure.

Numerical and machine learning simulation of parametric distributions of groundwater residence time in streams and wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starn, J. J.; Belitz, K.; Carlson, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater residence-time distributions (RTDs) are critical for assessing susceptibility of water resources to contamination. This novel approach for estimating regional RTDs was to first simulate groundwater flow using existing regional digital data sets in 13 intermediate size watersheds (each an average of 7,000 square kilometers) that are representative of a wide range of glacial systems. RTDs were simulated with particle tracking. We refer to these models as "general models" because they are based on regional, as opposed to site-specific, digital data. Parametric RTDs were created from particle RTDs by fitting 1- and 2-component Weibull, gamma, and inverse Gaussian distributions, thus reducing a large number of particle travel times to 3 to 7 parameters (shape, location, and scale for each component plus a mixing fraction) for each modeled area. The scale parameter of these distributions is related to the mean exponential age; the shape parameter controls departure from the ideal exponential distribution and is partly a function of interaction with bedrock and with drainage density. Given the flexible shape and mathematical similarity of these distributions, any of them are potentially a good fit to particle RTDs. The 1-component gamma distribution provided a good fit to basin-wide particle RTDs. RTDs at monitoring wells and streams often have more complicated shapes than basin-wide RTDs, caused in part by heterogeneity in the model, and generally require 2-component distributions. A machine learning model was trained on the RTD parameters using features derived from regionally available watershed characteristics such as recharge rate, material thickness, and stream density. RTDs appeared to vary systematically across the landscape in relation to watershed features. This relation was used to produce maps of useful metrics with respect to risk-based thresholds, such as the time to first exceedance, time to maximum concentration, time above the threshold

Inverse analysis of non-uniform temperature distributions using multispectral pyrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Tairan; Duan, Minghao; Tian, Jibin; Shi, Congling

2016-05-01

Optical diagnostics can be used to obtain sub-pixel temperature information in remote sensing. A multispectral pyrometry method was developed using multiple spectral radiation intensities to deduce the temperature area distribution in the measurement region. The method transforms a spot multispectral pyrometer with a fixed field of view into a pyrometer with enhanced spatial resolution that can give sub-pixel temperature information from a "one pixel" measurement region. A temperature area fraction function was defined to represent the spatial temperature distribution in the measurement region. The method is illustrated by simulations of a multispectral pyrometer with a spectral range of 8.0-13.0 μm measuring a non-isothermal region with a temperature range of 500-800 K in the spot pyrometer field of view. The inverse algorithm for the sub-pixel temperature distribution (temperature area fractions) in the "one pixel" verifies this multispectral pyrometry method. The results show that an improved Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is effective for this ill-posed inverse problem with relative errors in the temperature area fractions of (-3%, 3%) for most of the temperatures. The analysis provides a valuable reference for the use of spot multispectral pyrometers for sub-pixel temperature distributions in remote sensing measurements.

Statistical behavior of the tensile property of heated cotton fiber

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The temperature dependence of the tensile property of single cotton fiber was studied in the range of 160-300°C using Favimat test, and its statistical behavior was interpreted in terms of structural changes. The tenacity of control cotton fiber was well described by the single Weibull distribution,...

Iterative Monte Carlo analysis of spin-dependent parton distributions

DOE PAGES

Sato, Nobuo; Melnitchouk, Wally; Kuhn, Sebastian E.; ...

2016-04-05

We present a comprehensive new global QCD analysis of polarized inclusive deep-inelastic scattering, including the latest high-precision data on longitudinal and transverse polarization asymmetries from Jefferson Lab and elsewhere. The analysis is performed using a new iterative Monte Carlo fitting technique which generates stable fits to polarized parton distribution functions (PDFs) with statistically rigorous uncertainties. Inclusion of the Jefferson Lab data leads to a reduction in the PDF errors for the valence and sea quarks, as well as in the gluon polarization uncertainty at x ≳ 0.1. Furthermore, the study also provides the first determination of the flavor-separated twist-3 PDFsmore » and the d 2 moment of the nucleon within a global PDF analysis.« less

A New Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Weibull Distribution Based on Spacings

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-03-01

Values for Z* test statistic: Samplesize N, shape parameter 1.0, a levels are 0.20 thru 0.01 ........................... .. 24 3. Skewness of the...parameter K=0.5, a levels are 0.20 thru 0.01 ....... ............................ 30 5. Power of the Test: Samplesize N=20, shape parameter K=1.0, a ...parameter 1.0, alpha level 0.01 ...... ... 36 12. Power of the Test: Samplesize N=30, shape parameter K=1.5, a levels are 0.20 thru 0.01

Resolution of molecular weight distributions in slightly pyrolyzed cellulose using the weibull function

Treesearch

A. Broido; Hsiukang Yow

1977-01-01

Even before weight loss in the low-temperature pyrolysis of cellulose becomes significant, the average degree of polymerization of the partially pyrolyzed samples drops sharply. The gel permeation chromatograms of nitrated derivatives of the samples can be described in terms of a small number of mixed size populations—each component fitted within reasonable limits by a...