A New Insight into the Earthquake Recurrence Studies from the Three-parameter Generalized Exponential Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasari, S.; Kundu, D.; Dikshit, O.

2012-12-01

Earthquake recurrence interval is one of the important ingredients towards probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for any location. Exponential, gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions are quite established probability models in this recurrence interval estimation. However, they have certain shortcomings too. Thus, it is imperative to search for some alternative sophisticated distributions. In this paper, we introduce a three-parameter (location, scale and shape) exponentiated exponential distribution and investigate the scope of this distribution as an alternative of the afore-mentioned distributions in earthquake recurrence studies. This distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution. Despite of its complicated form, it is widely accepted in medical and biological applications. Furthermore, it shares many physical properties with gamma and Weibull family. Unlike gamma distribution, the hazard function of generalized exponential distribution can be easily computed even if the shape parameter is not an integer. To contemplate the plausibility of this model, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0) spanning for the period 1846 to 1995 from North-East Himalayan region (20-32 deg N and 87-100 deg E) has been used. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of moment estimator (MOME). No geological or geophysical evidences have been considered in this calculation. The estimated conditional probability reaches quite high after about a decade for an elapsed time of 17 years (i.e. 2012). Moreover, this study shows that the generalized exponential distribution fits the above data events more closely compared to the conventional models and hence it is tentatively concluded that generalized exponential distribution can be effectively considered in earthquake recurrence studies.

Study on constant-step stress accelerated life tests in white organic light-emitting diodes.

PubMed

Zhang, J P; Liu, C; Chen, X; Cheng, G L; Zhou, A X

2014-11-01

In order to obtain reliability information for a white organic light-emitting diode (OLED), two constant and one step stress tests were conducted with its working current increased. The Weibull function was applied to describe the OLED life distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and its iterative flow chart were used to calculate shape and scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation was determined using the least squares method, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to assess if the white OLED life follows a Weibull distribution, and self-developed software was used to predict the average and the median lifetimes of the OLED. The numerical results indicate that white OLED life conforms to a Weibull distribution, and that the accelerated life equation completely satisfies the inverse power law. The estimated life of a white OLED may provide significant guidelines for its manufacturers and customers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mortality profiles of Rhodnius prolixus (Heteroptera: Reduviidae), vector of Chagas disease.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Hernandez, Maria-Josefina; Revilla, Tomás A; Rodríguez, Diego J; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2004-10-01

Life table data of Rhodnius prolixus (Heteroptera: Reduviidae) kept at laboratory conditions were analysed in search for mortality patterns. Gompertz and Weibull mortality models seem adequate to explain the sigmoid shape of the survivorship curve. A significant fit was obtained with both models for females (R(2) = 0.70, P < 0.0005 for the Gompertz model; R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.0005 for the Weibull model) and for males (R(2) = 0.39, P < 0.0005 for the Gompertz model; R(2) = 0.48, P < 0.0005 for the Weibull model). The mortality parameter (b) is higher for females in Gompertz and Weibull models, using smoothed and non-smoothed data (P < 0.05), revealing a significant sex mortality differential. Given the particular life history of this insect, the non-linear relationship between the force of mortality and age may have an important impact in the vectorial capacity of R. prolixus as Chagas disease vector, and its consideration should be included as an important factor in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi by triatomines.

Mixture distributions of wind speed in the UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J.; Ouarda, T.; Lee, T. S.

2013-12-01

Wind speed probability distribution is commonly used to estimate potential wind energy. The 2-parameter Weibull distribution has been most widely used to characterize the distribution of wind speed. However, it is unable to properly model wind speed regimes when wind speed distribution presents bimodal and kurtotic shapes. Several studies have concluded that the Weibull distribution should not be used for frequency analysis of wind speed without investigation of wind speed distribution. Due to these mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed data, the application of mixture distributions should be further investigated in the frequency analysis of wind speed. A number of studies have investigated the potential wind energy in different parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed were detected from some of these studies. Nevertheless, mixture distributions have not been employed for wind speed modeling in the Arabian Peninsula. In order to improve our understanding of wind energy potential in Arabian Peninsula, mixture distributions should be tested for the frequency analysis of wind speed. The aim of the current study is to assess the suitability of mixture distributions for the frequency analysis of wind speed in the UAE. Hourly mean wind speed data at 10-m height from 7 stations were used in the current study. The Weibull and Kappa distributions were employed as representatives of the conventional non-mixture distributions. 10 mixture distributions are used and constructed by mixing four probability distributions such as Normal, Gamma, Weibull and Extreme value type-one (EV-1) distributions. Three parameter estimation methods such as Expectation Maximization algorithm, Least Squares method and Meta-Heuristic Maximum Likelihood (MHML) method were employed to estimate the parameters of the mixture distributions. In order to compare the goodness-of-fit of tested distributions and parameter estimation methods for sample wind data, the adjusted coefficient of determination, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Chi-squared statistics were computed. Results indicate that MHML presents the best performance of parameter estimation for the used mixture distributions. In most of the employed 7 stations, mixture distributions give the best fit. When the wind speed regime shows mixture distributional characteristics, most of these regimes present the kurtotic statistical characteristic. Particularly, applications of mixture distributions for these stations show a significant improvement in explaining the whole wind speed regime. In addition, the Weibull-Weibull mixture distribution presents the best fit for the wind speed data in the UAE.

On the non-Poissonian repetition pattern of FRB121102

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppermann, Niels; Yu, Hao-Ran; Pen, Ue-Li

2018-04-01

The Fast Radio Burst FRB121102 has been observed to repeat in an irregular fashion. Using published timing data of the observed bursts, we show that Poissonian statistics are not a good description of this random process. As an alternative, we suggest to describe the intervals between bursts with a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter smaller than one, which allows for the clustered nature of the bursts. We quantify the amount of clustering using the parameters of the Weibull distribution and discuss the consequences that it has for the detection probabilities of future observations and for the optimization of observing strategies. Allowing for this generalization, we find a mean repetition rate of r=5.7^{+3.0}_{-2.0} per day and index k=0.34^{+0.06}_{-0.05} for a correlation function ξ(t) = (t/t0)k - 1.

New methods for estimating parameters of weibull functions to characterize future diameter distributions in forest stands

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

2006-01-01

Diameter distributions in a forest stand have been successfully characterized by use of the Weibull function. Of special interest are cases where parameters of a Weibull distribution that models a future stand are predicted, either directly or indirectly, from current stand density and dominant height. This study evaluated four methods of predicting the Weibull...

Evaluation of bond strength of resin cements using different general-purpose statistical software packages for two-parameter Weibull statistics.

PubMed

Roos, Malgorzata; Stawarczyk, Bogna

2012-07-01

This study evaluated and compared Weibull parameters of resin bond strength values using six different general-purpose statistical software packages for two-parameter Weibull distribution. Two-hundred human teeth were randomly divided into 4 groups (n=50), prepared and bonded on dentin according to the manufacturers' instructions using the following resin cements: (i) Variolink (VAN, conventional resin cement), (ii) Panavia21 (PAN, conventional resin cement), (iii) RelyX Unicem (RXU, self-adhesive resin cement) and (iv) G-Cem (GCM, self-adhesive resin cement). Subsequently, all specimens were stored in water for 24h at 37°C. Shear bond strength was measured and the data were analyzed using Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit (MINITAB 16) and two-parameter Weibull statistics with the following statistical software packages: Excel 2011, SPSS 19, MINITAB 16, R 2.12.1, SAS 9.1.3. and STATA 11.2 (p≤0.05). Additionally, the three-parameter Weibull was fitted using MNITAB 16. Two-parameter Weibull calculated with MINITAB and STATA can be compared using an omnibus test and using 95% CI. In SAS only 95% CI were directly obtained from the output. R provided no estimates of 95% CI. In both SAS and R the global comparison of the characteristic bond strength among groups is provided by means of the Weibull regression. EXCEL and SPSS provided no default information about 95% CI and no significance test for the comparison of Weibull parameters among the groups. In summary, conventional resin cement VAN showed the highest Weibull modulus and characteristic bond strength. There are discrepancies in the Weibull statistics depending on the software package and the estimation method. The information content in the default output provided by the software packages differs to very high extent. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weibull models of fracture strengths and fatigue behavior of dental resins in flexure and shear.

PubMed

Baran, G R; McCool, J I; Paul, D; Boberick, K; Wunder, S

1998-01-01

In estimating lifetimes of dental restorative materials, it is useful to have available data on the fatigue behavior of these materials. Current efforts at estimation include several untested assumptions related to the equivalence of flaw distributions sampled by shear, tensile, and compressive stresses. Environmental influences on material properties are not accounted for, and it is unclear if fatigue limits exist. In this study, the shear and flexural strengths of three resins used as matrices in dental restorative composite materials were characterized by Weibull parameters. It was found that shear strengths were lower than flexural strengths, liquid sorption had a profound effect on characteristic strengths, and the Weibull shape parameter obtained from shear data differed for some materials from that obtained in flexure. In shear and flexural fatigue, a power law relationship applied for up to 250,000 cycles; no fatigue limits were found, and the data thus imply only one flaw population is responsible for failure. Again, liquid sorption adversely affected strength levels in most materials (decreasing shear strengths and flexural strengths by factors of 2-3) and to a greater extent than did the degree of cure or material chemistry.

Use of the Weibull function to predict future diameter distributions from current plot data

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2012-01-01

The Weibull function has been widely used to characterize diameter distributions in forest stands. The future diameter distribution of a forest stand can be predicted by use of a Weibull probability density function from current inventory data for that stand. The parameter recovery approach has been used to “recover” the Weibull parameters from diameter moments or...

Human disease mortality kinetics are explored through a chain model embodying principles of extreme value theory and competing risks.

PubMed

Juckett, D A; Rosenberg, B

1992-04-21

The distributions for human disease-specific mortality exhibit two striking characteristics: survivorship curves that intersect near the longevity limit; and, the clustering of best-fitting Weibull shape parameter values into groups centered on integers. Correspondingly, we have hypothesized that the distribution intersections result from either competitive processes or population partitioning and the integral clustering in the shape parameter results from the occurrence of a small number of rare, rate-limiting events in disease progression. In this report we initiate a theoretical examination of these questions by exploring serial chain model dynamics and parameteric competing risks theory. The links in our chain models are composed of more than one bond, where the number of bonds in a link are denoted the link size and are the number of events necessary to break the link and, hence, the chain. We explored chains with all links of the same size or with segments of the chain composed of different size links (competition). Simulations showed that chain breakage dynamics depended on the weakest-link principle and followed kinetics of extreme-values which were very similar to human mortality kinetics. In particular, failure distributions for simple chains were Weibull-type extreme-value distributions with shape parameter values that were identifiable with the integral link size in the limit of infinite chain length. Furthermore, for chains composed of several segments of differing link size, the survival distributions for the various segments converged at a point in the S(t) tails indistinguishable from human data. This was also predicted by parameteric competing risks theory using Weibull underlying distributions. In both the competitive chain simulations and the parametric competing risks theory, however, the shape values for the intersecting distributions deviated from the integer values typical of human data. We conclude that rare events can be the source of integral shapes in human mortality, that convergence is a salient feature of multiple endpoints, but that pure competition may not be the best explanation for the exact type of convergence observable in human mortality. Finally, while the chain models were not motivated by any specific biological structures, interesting biological correlates to them may be useful in gerontological research.

Universal behaviour in the stock market: Time dynamics of the electronic orderbook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kızılersü, Ayşe; Kreer, Markus; Thomas, Anthony W.; Feindt, Michael

2016-07-01

A consequence of the digital revolution is that share trading at the stock exchange takes place via electronic order books which are accessed by traders and investors via the internet. Our empirical findings of the London Stock Exchange demonstrate that once ultra-high frequency manipulation on time scales less than around ten milliseconds is excluded, all relevant changes in the order book happen with time differences that are randomly distributed and well described by a left-truncated Weibull distribution with universal shape parameter (independent of time and same for all stocks). The universal shape parameter corresponds to maximum entropy of the distribution.

A New Lifetime Distribution with Bathtube and Unimodal Hazard Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriga, Gladys D. C.; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; Cancho, Vicente G.

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which accommodate bathtub-shaped, unimodal, increasing and decreasing hazard function. Some special particular cases are derived, including the standard Weibull distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered for estimate the tree parameters present in the model. The methodology is illustrated in a real data set on industrial devices on a lite test.

Influence of the bracket on bonding and physical behavior of orthodontic resin cements.

PubMed

Bolaños-Carmona, Victoria; Zein, Bilal; Menéndez-Núñez, Mario; Sánchez-Sánchez, Purificación; Ceballos-García, Laura; González-López, Santiago

2015-01-01

The aim of the study is to determine the influence of the type of bracket, on bond strength, microhardness and conversion degree (CD) of four resin orthodontic cements. Micro-tensile bond strength (µTBS) test between the bracket base and the cement was carried out on glass-hour-shaped specimens (n=20). Vickers Hardness Number (VHN) and micro-Raman spectra were recorded in situ under the bracket base. Weibull distribution, ANOVA and non-parametric test were applied for data analysis (p<0.05). The highest values of ή as well as the β Weibull parameter were obtained for metallic brackets with Transbond™ plastic brackets with the self-curing cement showing the worst performance. The CD was from 80% to 62.5%.

Accuracy of Time Phasing Aircraft Development using the Continuous Distribution Function

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

Breusch - Pagan test ; the reported p-value of 0.5264 fails to rejects the null hypothesis of constant... Breusch - Pagan Test : P-value – 0.6911 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -1 -0.75 -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Shapiro-Wilk W Test Prob. < W: 0.9849 -1...Weibull Scale Parameter β – Constant Variance Breusch - Pagan Test : P-value – 0.5176 Beta Shape Parameter α – Influential Data

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Powers, Lynn M.; Starlinger, Alois

1992-01-01

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY OF A SYSTEM MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS AFIT/GOR/MA/81D-8 Philippe A. Lussier 2nd Lt USAF... MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology...repetitions are used for these test procedures. vi Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter

A practical and systematic review of Weibull statistics for reporting strengths of dental materials

PubMed Central

Quinn, George D.; Quinn, Janet B.

2011-01-01

Objectives To review the history, theory and current applications of Weibull analyses sufficient to make informed decisions regarding practical use of the analysis in dental material strength testing. Data References are made to examples in the engineering and dental literature, but this paper also includes illustrative analyses of Weibull plots, fractographic interpretations, and Weibull distribution parameters obtained for a dense alumina, two feldspathic porcelains, and a zirconia. Sources Informational sources include Weibull's original articles, later articles specific to applications and theoretical foundations of Weibull analysis, texts on statistics and fracture mechanics and the international standards literature. Study Selection The chosen Weibull analyses are used to illustrate technique, the importance of flaw size distributions, physical meaning of Weibull parameters and concepts of “equivalent volumes” to compare measured strengths obtained from different test configurations. Conclusions Weibull analysis has a strong theoretical basis and can be of particular value in dental applications, primarily because of test specimen size limitations and the use of different test configurations. Also endemic to dental materials, however, is increased difficulty in satisfying application requirements, such as confirming fracture origin type and diligence in obtaining quality strength data. PMID:19945745

Maximum likelihood estimates, from censored data, for mixed-Weibull distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Siyuan; Kececioglu, Dimitri

1992-06-01

A new algorithm for estimating the parameters of mixed-Weibull distributions from censored data is presented. The algorithm follows the principle of maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) through the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm, and it is derived for both postmortem and nonpostmortem time-to-failure data. It is concluded that the concept of the EM algorithm is easy to understand and apply (only elementary statistics and calculus are required). The log-likelihood function cannot decrease after an EM sequence; this important feature was observed in all of the numerical calculations. The MLEs of the nonpostmortem data were obtained successfully for mixed-Weibull distributions with up to 14 parameters in a 5-subpopulation, mixed-Weibull distribution. Numerical examples indicate that some of the log-likelihood functions of the mixed-Weibull distributions have multiple local maxima; therefore, the algorithm should start at several initial guesses of the parameter set.

Residence times and alluvial architecture of a sediment superslug in response to different flow regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

2017-01-01

A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes.Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture—laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated sediment stored in channels or on floodplains, and to provide insight into the interpretation of recent or ancient fluvial deposits.

Residence times and alluvial architecture of a sediment superslug in response to different flow regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, John A.

2017-10-01

A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes. Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture-laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated sediment stored in channels or on floodplains, and to provide insight into the interpretation of recent or ancient fluvial deposits.

Investigation of Weibull statistics in fracture analysis of cast aluminum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

1989-01-01

The fracture strengths of two large batches of A357-T6 cast aluminum coupon specimens were compared by using two-parameter Weibull analysis. The minimum number of these specimens necessary to find the fracture strength of the material was determined. The applicability of three-parameter Weibull analysis was also investigated. A design methodology based on the combination of elementary stress analysis and Weibull statistical analysis is advanced and applied to the design of a spherical pressure vessel shell. The results from this design methodology are compared with results from the applicable ASME pressure vessel code.

Fractional differential equations based modeling of microbial survival and growth curves: model development and experimental validation.

PubMed

Kaur, A; Takhar, P S; Smith, D M; Mann, J E; Brashears, M M

2008-10-01

A fractional differential equations (FDEs)-based theory involving 1- and 2-term equations was developed to predict the nonlinear survival and growth curves of foodborne pathogens. It is interesting to note that the solution of 1-term FDE leads to the Weibull model. Nonlinear regression (Gauss-Newton method) was performed to calculate the parameters of the 1-term and 2-term FDEs. The experimental inactivation data of Salmonella cocktail in ground turkey breast, ground turkey thigh, and pork shoulder; and cocktail of Salmonella, E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes in ground beef exposed at isothermal cooking conditions of 50 to 66 degrees C were used for validation. To evaluate the performance of 2-term FDE in predicting the growth curves-growth of Salmonella typhimurium, Salmonella Enteritidis, and background flora in ground pork and boneless pork chops; and E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef in the temperature range of 22.2 to 4.4 degrees C were chosen. A program was written in Matlab to predict the model parameters and survival and growth curves. Two-term FDE was more successful in describing the complex shapes of microbial survival and growth curves as compared to the linear and Weibull models. Predicted curves of 2-term FDE had higher magnitudes of R(2) (0.89 to 0.99) and lower magnitudes of root mean square error (0.0182 to 0.5461) for all experimental cases in comparison to the linear and Weibull models. This model was capable of predicting the tails in survival curves, which was not possible using Weibull and linear models. The developed model can be used for other foodborne pathogens in a variety of food products to study the destruction and growth behavior.

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Huarui; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.; Kuball, Martin

2015-01-01

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage "hot spots" at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7-0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which is consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Bonded-cell model for particle fracture.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc-Hanh; Azéma, Emilien; Sornay, Philippe; Radjai, Farhang

2015-02-01

Particle degradation and fracture play an important role in natural granular flows and in many applications of granular materials. We analyze the fracture properties of two-dimensional disklike particles modeled as aggregates of rigid cells bonded along their sides by a cohesive Mohr-Coulomb law and simulated by the contact dynamics method. We show that the compressive strength scales with tensile strength between cells but depends also on the friction coefficient and a parameter describing cell shape distribution. The statistical scatter of compressive strength is well described by the Weibull distribution function with a shape parameter varying from 6 to 10 depending on cell shape distribution. We show that this distribution may be understood in terms of percolating critical intercellular contacts. We propose a random-walk model of critical contacts that leads to particle size dependence of the compressive strength in good agreement with our simulation data.

Estimating child mortality and modelling its age pattern for India.

PubMed

Roy, S G

1989-06-01

"Using data [for India] on proportions of children dead...estimates of infant and child mortality are...obtained by Sullivan and Trussell modifications of [the] Brass basic method. The estimate of child survivorship function derived after logit smoothing appears to be more reliable than that obtained by the Census Actuary. The age pattern of childhood mortality is suitably modelled by [a] Weibull function defining the probability of surviving from birth to a specified age and involving two parameters of level and shape. A recently developed linearization procedure based on [a] graphical approach is adopted for estimating the parameters of the function." excerpt

SCARE: A post-processor program to MSC/NASTRAN for the reliability analysis of structural ceramic components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, J. P.

1985-01-01

A computer program was developed for calculating the statistical fast fracture reliability and failure probability of ceramic components. The program includes the two-parameter Weibull material fracture strength distribution model, using the principle of independent action for polyaxial stress states and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive crack theories, all for volume distributed flaws in macroscopically isotropic solids. Both penny-shaped cracks and Griffith cracks are included in the Batdorf shear-sensitive crack response calculations, using Griffith's maximum tensile stress or critical coplanar strain energy release rate criteria to predict mixed mode fracture. Weibull material parameters can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and fracture data. The reliability prediction analysis uses MSC/NASTRAN stress, temperature and volume output, obtained from the use of three-dimensional, quadratic, isoparametric, or axisymmetric finite elements. The statistical fast fracture theories employed, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Creep test observation of viscoelastic failure of edible fats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vithanage, C. R.; Grimson, M. J.; Smith, B. G.; Wills, P. R.

2011-03-01

A rheological creep test was used to investigate the viscoelastic failure of five edible fats. Butter, spreadable blend and spread were selected as edible fats because they belong to three different groups according to the Codex Alimentarius. Creep curves were analysed according to the Burger model. Results were fitted to a Weibull distribution representing the strain-dependent lifetime of putative fibres in the material. The Weibull shape and scale (lifetime) parameters were estimated for each substance. A comparison of the rheometric measurements of edible fats demonstrated a clear difference between the three different groups. Taken together the results indicate that butter has a lower threshold for mechanical failure than spreadable blend and spread. The observed behaviour of edible fats can be interpreted using a model in which there are two types of bonds between fat crystals; primary bonds that are strong and break irreversibly, and secondary bonds, which are weaker but break and reform reversibly.

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Huarui, E-mail: huarui.sun@bristol.ac.uk; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.

2015-01-26

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage “hot spots” at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7–0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which ismore » consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.« less

Experimental investigation of mode I fracture for brittle tube-shaped particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stasiak, Marta; Combe, Gaël; Desrues, Jacques; Richefeu, Vincent; Villard, Pascal; Armand, Gilles; Zghondi, Jad

2017-06-01

We focus herein on the mechanical behavior of highly crushable grains. The object of our interest, named shell, is a hollow cylinder grain with ring cross-section, made of baked clay. The objective is to model the fragmentation of such shells, by means of discrete element (DE) approach. To this end, fracture modes I (opening fracture) and II (in-plane shear fracture) have to be investigated experimentally. This paper is essentially dedicated to mode I fracture. Therefore, a campaign of Brazilian-like compression tests, that result in crack opening, has been performed. The distribution of the occurrence of tensile strength is shown to obey a Weibull distribution for the studied shells, and Weibull's modulus was quantified. Finally, an estimate of the numerical/physical parameters required in a DE model (local strength), is proposed on the basis of the energy required to fracture through a given surface in mode I or II.

Extremes of fractional noises: A model for the timings of arrhythmic heart beats in post-infarction patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witt, Annette; Ehlers, Frithjof; Luther, Stefan

2017-09-01

We have analyzed symbol sequences of heart beat annotations obtained from 24-h electrocardiogram recordings of 184 post-infarction patients (from the Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial database, CAST). In the symbol sequences, each heart beat was coded as an arrhythmic or as a normal beat. The symbol sequences were analyzed with a model-based approach which relies on two-parametric peaks over the threshold (POT) model, interpreting each premature ventricular contraction (PVC) as an extreme event. For the POT model, we explored (i) the Shannon entropy which was estimated in terms of the Lempel-Ziv complexity, (ii) the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution that best fits the PVC return times, and (iii) the strength of long-range correlations quantified by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) for the two-dimensional parameter space. We have found that in the frame of our model the Lempel-Ziv complexity is functionally related to the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution. Thus, two complementary measures (entropy and strength of long-range correlations) are sufficient to characterize realizations of the two-parametric model. For the CAST data, we have found evidence for an intermediate strength of long-range correlations in the PVC timings, which are correlated to the age of the patient: younger post-infarction patients have higher strength of long-range correlations than older patients. The normalized Shannon entropy has values in the range 0.5

Determination of the Mechanical Properties of Plasma-Sprayed Hydroxyapatite Coatings Using the Knoop Indentation Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Fahad; Wang, James; Berndt, Christopher

2015-06-01

The microhardness and elastic modulus of plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite coatings were evaluated using Knoop indentation on the cross section and on the top surface. The effects of indentation angle, testing direction, measurement location and applied load on the microhardness and elastic modulus were investigated. The variability and distribution of the microhardness and elastic modulus data were statistically analysed using the Weibull modulus distribution. The results indicate that the dependence of microhardness and elastic modulus on the indentation angle exhibits a parabolic shape. Dependence of the microhardness values on the indentation angle follows Pythagoras's theorem. The microhardness, Weibull modulus of microhardness and Weibull modulus of elastic modulus reach their maximum at the central position (175 µm) on the cross section of the coatings. The Weibull modulus of microhardness revealed similar values throughout the thickness, and the Weibull modulus of elastic modulus shows higher values on the top surface compared to the cross section.

Failure rate and reliability of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator in surface limestone mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harish Kumar N., S.; Choudhary, R. P.; Murthy, Ch. S. N.

2018-04-01

The model with failure rate function of bathtub-shaped is helpful in reliability analysis of any system and particularly in reliability associated privative maintenance. The usual Weibull distribution is, however, not capable to model the complete lifecycle of the any with a bathtub-shaped failure rate function. In this paper, failure rate and reliability analysis of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator/shovel in surface mine is presented and also to improve the reliability and decrease the failure rate of each subsystem of the shovel based on the preventive maintenance. The model of the bathtub-shaped for shovel can also be seen as a simplification of the Weibull distribution.

Evaluation of the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Fracture Probability in Composite Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-03-01

for the risk of rupture for a unidirectionally laminat - ed composite subjected to pure bending. (5D This equation can be simplified further by use of...C EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS. THESIS / AFIT/GAE...EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WE1BULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS THESIS Presented

Least Squares Best Fit Method for the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution: Analysis of Tensile and Bend Specimens with Volume or Surface Flaw Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard

1996-01-01

Material characterization parameters obtained from naturally flawed specimens are necessary for reliability evaluation of non-deterministic advanced ceramic structural components. The least squares best fit method is applied to the three parameter uniaxial Weibull model to obtain the material parameters from experimental tests on volume or surface flawed specimens subjected to pure tension, pure bending, four point or three point loading. Several illustrative example problems are provided.

A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

PubMed

Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

2015-09-01

Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Weibull Modulus Estimated by the Non-linear Least Squares Method: A Solution to Deviation Occurring in Traditional Weibull Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Griffiths, W. D.; Chen, J.

2017-11-01

The Maximum Likelihood method and the Linear Least Squares (LLS) method have been widely used to estimate Weibull parameters for reliability of brittle and metal materials. In the last 30 years, many researchers focused on the bias of Weibull modulus estimation, and some improvements have been achieved, especially in the case of the LLS method. However, there is a shortcoming in these methods for a specific type of data, where the lower tail deviates dramatically from the well-known linear fit in a classic LLS Weibull analysis. This deviation can be commonly found from the measured properties of materials, and previous applications of the LLS method on this kind of dataset present an unreliable linear regression. This deviation was previously thought to be due to physical flaws ( i.e., defects) contained in materials. However, this paper demonstrates that this deviation can also be caused by the linear transformation of the Weibull function, occurring in the traditional LLS method. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to carry out a Weibull analysis according to the linearized Weibull function, and the Non-linear Least Squares method (Non-LS) is instead recommended for the Weibull modulus estimation of casting properties.

An EOQ Model with Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution Deterioration and Price-Dependent Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mukhopadhyay, Sushanta; Mukherjee, R. N.; Chaudhuri, K. S.

2005-01-01

An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Weibull crack density coefficient for polydimensional stress states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

A structural ceramic analysis and reliability evaluation code has recently been developed encompassing volume and surface flaw induced fracture, modeled by the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. A segment of the software involves computing the Weibull polydimensional stress state crack density coefficient from uniaxial stress experimental fracture data. The relationship of the polydimensional stress coefficient to the uniaxial stress coefficient is derived for a shear-insensitive material with a random surface flaw population.

Reliability Implications in Wood Systems of a Bivariate Gaussian-Weibull Distribution and the Associated Univariate Pseudo-truncated Weibull

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

2014-01-01

Two important wood properties are the modulus of elasticity (MOE) and the modulus of rupture (MOR). In the past, the statistical distribution of the MOE has often been modeled as Gaussian, and that of the MOR as lognormal or as a two- or three-parameter Weibull distribution. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior...

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate. [in reliability theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canavos, G. C.

1974-01-01

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Four Theorems on the Psychometric Function

PubMed Central

May, Keith A.; Solomon, Joshua A.

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, . This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull “slope” parameter, , can be approximated by , where is the of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for and , from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when , . We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4–0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian. PMID:24124456

Failure probability of three designs of zirconia crowns

PubMed Central

Ramos, G. Freitas; Monteiro, E. Barbosa Carmona; Bottino, M.A.; Zhang, Y.; de Melo, R. Marques

2015-01-01

Objectives This study utilized a 2-parameter Weibull analysis for evaluation of lifetime of fully or partially porcelain-/glaze-veneered zirconia crowns after fatigue test. Methods Sixty first molars were selected and prepared for full-coverage crowns with three different designs(n = 20): Traditional –crowns with zirconia framework covered with feldspathic porcelain; Modified– crowns partially covered with veneering porcelain; and Monolithic–full-contour zirconia crowns. All specimens were treated with a glaze layer. Specimens were subjected to mechanical cycling (100N, 3Hz) with a piston with hemispherical tip (Ø=6 mm) until the specimens failed or up to 2×106 cycles. Every 500,000 cycles intervals, the fatigue tests were interrupted, and stereomicroscopy (10 X) was used to inspect the specimens for damage. We performed Weibull analysis of interval data to calculate the number of failures in each interval. Results The types and number of failures according to the groups were: cracking (Traditional-13, Modified-6) and chipping (Traditional-4) of the feldspathic porcelain, followed by delamination (Traditional-1) at the veneer/core interface and debonding (Monollithic-2) at the cementation interface. Weibull parameters (beta, scale; and eta, shape), with a two-sided confidence interval of 95%, were: Traditional – 1.25 and 0.9 × 106cycles; Modified– 0.58 and 11.7 × 106 cycles; and Monolithic – 1.05 and 16.5 × 106 cycles. Traditional crowns showed greater susceptibility to fatigue, the Modified group presented higher propensity to early failures, and the Monolithic group showed no susceptibility to fatigue. The Modified and Monolithic groups presented the highest number of crowns with no failures after the fatigue test. Conclusions The three crown designs presented significantly different behaviors under fatigue. The Modified and the Monolithic groups presented less probability to failure after 2×106cycles. PMID:26509988

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

CARES/PC - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szatmary, S. A.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES/PC performs statistical analysis of data obtained from the fracture of simple, uniaxial tensile or flexural specimens and estimates the Weibull and Batdorf material parameters from this data. CARES/PC is a subset of the program CARES (COSMIC program number LEW-15168) which calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of ceramic components utilizing the Batdorf and Weibull models to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. CARES additionally requires that the ceramic structure be modeled by a finite element program such as MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS. The more limited CARES/PC does not perform fast-fracture reliability estimation of components. CARES/PC estimates ceramic material properties from uniaxial tensile or from three- and four-point bend bar data. In general, the parameters are obtained from the fracture stresses of many specimens (30 or more are recommended) whose geometry and loading configurations are held constant. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests measure the accuracy of the hypothesis that the fracture data comes from a population with a distribution specified by the estimated Weibull parameters. Ninety-percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters and the unbiased value of the shape parameter for complete samples are provided when the maximum likelihood technique is used. CARES/PC is written and compiled with the Microsoft FORTRAN v5.0 compiler using the VAX FORTRAN extensions and dynamic array allocation supported by this compiler for the IBM/MS-DOS or OS/2 operating systems. The dynamic array allocation routines allow the user to match the number of fracture sets and test specimens to the memory available. Machine requirements include IBM PC compatibles with optional math coprocessor. Program output is designed to fit 80-column format printers. Executables for both DOS and OS/2 are provided. CARES/PC is distributed on one 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette in compressed format. The expansion tool PKUNZIP.EXE is supplied on the diskette. CARES/PC was developed in 1990. IBM PC and OS/2 are trademarks of International Business Machines. MS-DOS and MS OS/2 are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation. VAX is a trademark of Digital Equipment Corporation.

Decision Models for Determining the Optimal Life Test Sampling Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nechval, Nicholas A.; Nechval, Konstantin N.; Purgailis, Maris; Berzins, Gundars; Strelchonok, Vladimir F.

2010-11-01

Life test sampling plan is a technique, which consists of sampling, inspection, and decision making in determining the acceptance or rejection of a batch of products by experiments for examining the continuous usage time of the products. In life testing studies, the lifetime is usually assumed to be distributed as either a one-parameter exponential distribution, or a two-parameter Weibull distribution with the assumption that the shape parameter is known. Such oversimplified assumptions can facilitate the follow-up analyses, but may overlook the fact that the lifetime distribution can significantly affect the estimation of the failure rate of a product. Moreover, sampling costs, inspection costs, warranty costs, and rejection costs are all essential, and ought to be considered in choosing an appropriate sampling plan. The choice of an appropriate life test sampling plan is a crucial decision problem because a good plan not only can help producers save testing time, and reduce testing cost; but it also can positively affect the image of the product, and thus attract more consumers to buy it. This paper develops the frequentist (non-Bayesian) decision models for determining the optimal life test sampling plans with an aim of cost minimization by identifying the appropriate number of product failures in a sample that should be used as a threshold in judging the rejection of a batch. The two-parameter exponential and Weibull distributions with two unknown parameters are assumed to be appropriate for modelling the lifetime of a product. A practical numerical application is employed to demonstrate the proposed approach.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

pT spectra in pp and AA collisions at RHIC and LHC energies using the Tsallis-Weibull approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Sadhana; Mahapatra, D. P.

2018-04-01

The Tsallis q -statistics have been incorporated in the Weibull model of particle production, in the form of q-Weibull distribution, to describe the transverse momentum (pT) distribution of charged hadrons at mid-rapidity, measured at RHIC and LHC energies. The q-Weibull distribution is found to describe the observed pT distributions over all ranges of measured pT. Below 2.2 GeV/c, while going from peripheral to central collisions, the parameter q is found to decrease systematically towards unity, indicating an evolution from a non-equilibrated system in peripheral collisions, towards a more thermalized system in central collisions. However, the trend is reversed in the all inclusive pT regime. This can be attributed to an increase in relative contribution of hard pQCD processes in central collisions. The λ-parameter is found to be associated with the mean pT or the collective expansion velocity of the produced hadrons, which shows an expected increase with centrality of collisions. The k parameter is observed to increase with the onset of hard QCD scatterings, initial fluctuations, and other processes leading to non-equilibrium conditions.

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2002-01-01

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type 1 censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kranz, Timothy L.

2002-01-01

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type I censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Small Sample Properties of Asymptotically Efficient Estimators of the Parameters of a Bivariate Gaussian–Weibull Distribution

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

2012-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity or MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture or MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two or three parameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of...

Interpreting the Weibull fitting parameters for diffusion-controlled release data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ignacio, Maxime; Chubynsky, Mykyta V.; Slater, Gary W.

2017-11-01

We examine the diffusion-controlled release of molecules from passive delivery systems using both analytical solutions of the diffusion equation and numerically exact Lattice Monte Carlo data. For very short times, the release process follows a √{ t } power law, typical of diffusion processes, while the long-time asymptotic behavior is exponential. The crossover time between these two regimes is determined by the boundary conditions and initial loading of the system. We show that while the widely used Weibull function provides a reasonable fit (in terms of statistical error), it has two major drawbacks: (i) it does not capture the correct limits and (ii) there is no direct connection between the fitting parameters and the properties of the system. Using a physically motivated interpolating fitting function that correctly includes both time regimes, we are able to predict the values of the Weibull parameters which allows us to propose a physical interpretation.

The Application of a Novel Ceramic Liner Improves Bonding between Zirconia and Veneering Porcelain

PubMed Central

Lee, Hee-Sung

2017-01-01

The adhesion of porcelain to zirconia is a key factor in the success of bilayered restorations. In this study, the efficacy of a novel experimental liner (EL) containing zirconia for improved bonding between zirconia and veneering porcelain was tested. Four ELs containing various concentrations (0, 3.0, 6.0, and 9.0 wt %) of zirconia were prepared. Testing determined the most effective EL (EL3 containing 3.0 wt % zirconia) in terms of shear bond strength value (n = 15). Three different bar-shaped zirconia/porcelain bilayer specimens were prepared for a three-point flexural strength (TPFS) test (n = 15): no-liner (NL), commercial liner (CL), and EL3. Specimens were tested for TPFS with the porcelain under tension and the maximum load was measured at the first sign of fracture. The strength data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test (α = 0.05) as well as Weibull distribution. When compared to NL, the CL application had no effect, while the EL3 application had a significant positive effect (p < 0.001) on the flexural strength. Weibull analysis also revealed the highest shape and scale parameters for group EL3. Within the limitations of this study, the novel ceramic liner containing 3.0 wt % zirconia (EL3) significantly enhanced the zirconia/porcelain interfacial bonding. PMID:28869512

Large-Scale Weibull Analysis of H-451 Nuclear- Grade Graphite Specimen Rupture Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Walker, Andrew; Baker, Eric H.; Murthy, Pappu L.; Bratton, Robert L.

2012-01-01

A Weibull analysis was performed of the strength distribution and size effects for 2000 specimens of H-451 nuclear-grade graphite. The data, generated elsewhere, measured the tensile and four-point-flexure room-temperature rupture strength of specimens excised from a single extruded graphite log. Strength variation was compared with specimen location, size, and orientation relative to the parent body. In our study, data were progressively and extensively pooled into larger data sets to discriminate overall trends from local variations and to investigate the strength distribution. The CARES/Life and WeibPar codes were used to investigate issues regarding the size effect, Weibull parameter consistency, and nonlinear stress-strain response. Overall, the Weibull distribution described the behavior of the pooled data very well. However, the issue regarding the smaller-than-expected size effect remained. This exercise illustrated that a conservative approach using a two-parameter Weibull distribution is best for designing graphite components with low probability of failure for the in-core structures in the proposed Generation IV (Gen IV) high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. This exercise also demonstrated the continuing need to better understand the mechanisms driving stochastic strength response. Extensive appendixes are provided with this report to show all aspects of the rupture data and analytical results.

The effect of wall thickness distribution on mechanical reliability and strength in unidirectional porous ceramics.

PubMed

Seuba, Jordi; Deville, Sylvain; Guizard, Christian; Stevenson, Adam J

2016-01-01

Macroporous ceramics exhibit an intrinsic strength variability caused by the random distribution of defects in their structure. However, the precise role of microstructural features, other than pore volume, on reliability is still unknown. Here, we analyze the applicability of the Weibull analysis to unidirectional macroporous yttria-stabilized-zirconia (YSZ) prepared by ice-templating. First, we performed crush tests on samples with controlled microstructural features with the loading direction parallel to the porosity. The compressive strength data were fitted using two different fitting techniques, ordinary least squares and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, to evaluate whether Weibull statistics are an adequate descriptor of the strength distribution. The statistical descriptors indicated that the strength data are well described by the Weibull statistical approach, for both fitting methods used. Furthermore, we assess the effect of different microstructural features (volume, size, densification of the walls, and morphology) on Weibull modulus and strength. We found that the key microstructural parameter controlling reliability is wall thickness. In contrast, pore volume is the main parameter controlling the strength. The highest Weibull modulus ([Formula: see text]) and mean strength (198.2 MPa) were obtained for the samples with the smallest and narrowest wall thickness distribution (3.1 [Formula: see text]m) and lower pore volume (54.5%).

The effect of wall thickness distribution on mechanical reliability and strength in unidirectional porous ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seuba, Jordi; Deville, Sylvain; Guizard, Christian; Stevenson, Adam J.

2016-01-01

Macroporous ceramics exhibit an intrinsic strength variability caused by the random distribution of defects in their structure. However, the precise role of microstructural features, other than pore volume, on reliability is still unknown. Here, we analyze the applicability of the Weibull analysis to unidirectional macroporous yttria-stabilized-zirconia (YSZ) prepared by ice-templating. First, we performed crush tests on samples with controlled microstructural features with the loading direction parallel to the porosity. The compressive strength data were fitted using two different fitting techniques, ordinary least squares and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo, to evaluate whether Weibull statistics are an adequate descriptor of the strength distribution. The statistical descriptors indicated that the strength data are well described by the Weibull statistical approach, for both fitting methods used. Furthermore, we assess the effect of different microstructural features (volume, size, densification of the walls, and morphology) on Weibull modulus and strength. We found that the key microstructural parameter controlling reliability is wall thickness. In contrast, pore volume is the main parameter controlling the strength. The highest Weibull modulus (?) and mean strength (198.2 MPa) were obtained for the samples with the smallest and narrowest wall thickness distribution (3.1 ?m) and lower pore volume (54.5%).

The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

2009-07-01

Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting time. We find that our distribution is applicable as long as durations follow a Weibull law for short times and do not have too heavy a tail.

Simulation of parametric model towards the fixed covariate of right censored lung cancer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Ridwan Olaniran, Oyebayo; Enera Amran, Syahila

2017-09-01

In this study, simulation procedure was applied to measure the fixed covariate of right censored data by using parametric survival model. The scale and shape parameter were modified to differentiate the analysis of parametric regression survival model. Statistically, the biases, mean biases and the coverage probability were used in this analysis. Consequently, different sample sizes were employed to distinguish the impact of parametric regression model towards right censored data with 50, 100, 150 and 200 number of sample. R-statistical software was utilised to develop the coding simulation with right censored data. Besides, the final model of right censored simulation was compared with the right censored lung cancer data in Malaysia. It was found that different values of shape and scale parameter with different sample size, help to improve the simulation strategy for right censored data and Weibull regression survival model is suitable fit towards the simulation of survival of lung cancer patients data in Malaysia.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

An evaluation of percentile and maximum likelihood estimators of weibull paremeters

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Tommy R. Dell

1985-01-01

Two methods of estimating the three-parameter Weibull distribution were evaluated by computer simulation and field data comparison. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLB) with bias correction were calculated with the computer routine FITTER (Bailey 1974); percentile estimators (PCT) were those proposed by Zanakis (1979). The MLB estimators had superior smaller bias and...

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

The effect of mis-specification on mean and selection between the Weibull and lognormal models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xiang; Nadarajah, Saralees; Guo, Bo

2018-02-01

The lognormal and Weibull models are commonly used to analyse data. Although selection procedures have been extensively studied, it is possible that the lognormal model could be selected when the true model is Weibull or vice versa. As the mean is important in applications, we focus on the effect of mis-specification on mean. The effect on lognormal mean is first considered if the lognormal sample is wrongly fitted by a Weibull model. The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) and quasi-MLE (QMLE) of lognormal mean are obtained based on lognormal and Weibull models. Then, the impact is evaluated by computing ratio of biases and ratio of mean squared errors (MSEs) between MLE and QMLE. For completeness, the theoretical results are demonstrated by simulation studies. Next, the effect of the reverse mis-specification on Weibull mean is discussed. It is found that the ratio of biases and the ratio of MSEs are independent of the location and scale parameters of the lognormal and Weibull models. The influence could be ignored if some special conditions hold. Finally, a model selection method is proposed by comparing ratios concerning biases and MSEs. We also present a published data to illustrate the study in this paper.

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Four theorems on the psychometric function.

PubMed

May, Keith A; Solomon, Joshua A

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, Δx. This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull "slope" parameter, β, can be approximated by β(Noise) x β(Transducer), where β(Noise) is the β of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and β(Transducer) depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for β(Noise) and β(Transducer), from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when d' ∝ (Δx)(b), β ≈ β(Noise) x b. We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4-0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull β reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of β for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian.

Analysis of Flexural Fatigue Strength of Self Compacting Fibre Reinforced Concrete Beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murali, G.; Sudar Celestina, J. P. Arul; Subhashini, N.; Vigneshwari, M.

2017-07-01

This study presents the extensive statistical investigation ofvariations in flexural fatigue life of self-compacting Fibrous Concrete (FC) beams. For this purpose, the experimental data of earlier researchers were examined by two parameter Weibull distribution.Two methods namely Graphical and moment wereused to analyse the variations in experimental data and the results have been presented in the form of probability of survival. The Weibull parameters values obtained from graphical and method of moments are precise. At 0.7 stress level, the fatigue life shows 59861 cyclesfor areliability of 90%.

Morphological study on the prediction of the site of surface slides

Treesearch

Hiromasa Hiura

1991-01-01

The annual continual occurrence of surface slides in the basin was estimated by modifying the estimation formula of Yoshimatsu. The Weibull Distribution Function revealed to be usefull for presenting the state and the transition of surface slides in the basin. Three parameters of the Weibull Function are recognized to be the linear function of the area ratio a/A. The...

Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, W. E.

2015-12-01

Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially better fit to the data than the one-parameter exponential function. For the single porosity system it was found that the use of three parameters was often optimal for accurately describing the base-flow age distribution, whereas for the dual porosity system the fourth parameter was often required to fit the more complicated response curves.

Emperical Tests of Acceptance Sampling Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, K. Preston, Jr.; Johnson, Kenneth L.

2012-01-01

Acceptance sampling is a quality control procedure applied as an alternative to 100% inspection. A random sample of items is drawn from a lot to determine the fraction of items which have a required quality characteristic. Both the number of items to be inspected and the criterion for determining conformance of the lot to the requirement are given by an appropriate sampling plan with specified risks of Type I and Type II sampling errors. In this paper, we present the results of empirical tests of the accuracy of selected sampling plans reported in the literature. These plans are for measureable quality characteristics which are known have either binomial, exponential, normal, gamma, Weibull, inverse Gaussian, or Poisson distributions. In the main, results support the accepted wisdom that variables acceptance plans are superior to attributes (binomial) acceptance plans, in the sense that these provide comparable protection against risks at reduced sampling cost. For the Gaussian and Weibull plans, however, there are ranges of the shape parameters for which the required sample sizes are in fact larger than the corresponding attributes plans, dramatically so for instances of large skew. Tests further confirm that the published inverse-Gaussian (IG) plan is flawed, as reported by White and Johnson (2011).

Migration kinetics of four photo-initiators from paper food packaging to solid food simulants.

PubMed

Cai, Huimei; Ji, Shuilin; Zhang, Juzhou; Tao, Gushuai; Peng, Chuanyi; Hou, Ruyan; Zhang, Liang; Sun, Yue; Wan, Xiaochun

2017-09-01

The migration behaviour of four photo-initiators (BP, EHA, MBP and Irgacure 907) was studied by 'printing' onto four different food-packaging materials (Kraft paper, white cardboard, Polyethylene (PE)-coated paper and composite paper) and tracking movement into the food simulant: Tenax-TA (porous polymer 2,6-diphenyl furan resin). The results indicated that the migration of the photo-initiators was related to the molecular weight and log K o/w of each photo-initiator. At different temperatures, the migration rates of the photo-initiators were different in papers with different thicknesses. The amount of each photo-initiator found in the food was closely related to the food matrix. The Weibull model was used to predict the migration load into the food simulants by calculating the parameters τ and β and determining the relationship of the two parameters with temperature and paper thickness. The established Weibull model was then used to predict the migration of each photo-initiator with respect to different foods. A two-parameter Weibull model fitted the actual situation, with some deviation from the actual migration amount.

Statistical models for the distribution of modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture in lumber with implications for reliability calculations

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; Frank C. Owens; David E. Kretschmann; Rubin Shmulsky

2017-01-01

It is common practice to assume that a two-parameter Weibull probability distribution is suitable for modeling lumber properties. Verrill and co-workers demonstrated theoretically and empirically that the modulus of rupture (MOR) distribution of visually graded or machine stress rated (MSR) lumber is not distributed as a Weibull. Instead, the tails of the MOR...

Mechanical Testing of Silicon Carbide on MISSE-7

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-15

JS) ii Abstract Silicon carbide ( SiC ) mechanical test specimens were included on the second Optical and Reflector Materials Experiment (ORMatE II...2. Vendor 2 EFS Weibull Results (normalized to Extra Disks Weibull parameters) 12 1. Introduction Silicon carbide ( SiC ) mechanical test...AEROSPACE REPORT NO ATR-2012(8921)-5 Mechanical Testing of Silicon Carbide on MISSE-7 Jul> 15. 2012 David B. Witkin Space Materials Laboratory

A reappraisal of drug release laws using Monte Carlo simulations: the prevalence of the Weibull function.

PubMed

Kosmidis, Kosmas; Argyrakis, Panos; Macheras, Panos

2003-07-01

To verify the Higuchi law and study the drug release from cylindrical and spherical matrices by means of Monte Carlo computer simulation. A one-dimensional matrix, based on the theoretical assumptions of the derivation of the Higuchi law, was simulated and its time evolution was monitored. Cylindrical and spherical three-dimensional lattices were simulated with sites at the boundary of the lattice having been denoted as leak sites. Particles were allowed to move inside it using the random walk model. Excluded volume interactions between the particles was assumed. We have monitored the system time evolution for different lattice sizes and different initial particle concentrations. The Higuchi law was verified using the Monte Carlo technique in a one-dimensional lattice. It was found that Fickian drug release from cylindrical matrices can be approximated nicely with the Weibull function. A simple linear relation between the Weibull function parameters and the specific surface of the system was found. Drug release from a matrix, as a result of a diffusion process assuming excluded volume interactions between the drug molecules, can be described using a Weibull function. This model, although approximate and semiempirical, has the benefit of providing a simple physical connection between the model parameters and the system geometry, which was something missing from other semiempirical models.

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2013-01-01

Leonard Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Johnson's methodology is dependent on limited combinations of test parameters (Weibull slope, mean life ratio, and degrees of freedom) and a set of complex mathematical equations. In this report, a simplified algebraic equation for confidence numbers is derived based on the original work of Johnson. The confidence numbers calculated with this equation are compared to those obtained graphically by Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers at the 99 percent level deviate less than 1 percent from those of Johnson. At a 90 percent confidence level, the calculated values differ between +2 and 4 percent. The simplified equation is used to rank the experimental lives of three aluminum alloys (AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075), each tested at three stress levels in rotating beam fatigue, analyzed using the Johnson- Weibull method, and compared to the ASTM Standard (E739 91) method of comparison. The ASTM Standard did not statistically distinguish between AL 6061 and AL 7075. However, it is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers using the Johnson- Weibull analysis. AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median, or L(sub 50), lives

Estimation of Slow Crack Growth Parameters for Constant Stress-Rate Test Data of Advanced Ceramics and Glass by the Individual Data and Arithmetic Mean Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Salem, Jonathan A.; Holland, Frederic A.

1997-01-01

The two estimation methods, individual data and arithmetic mean methods, were used to determine the slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n and D) of advanced ceramics and glass from a large number of room- and elevated-temperature constant stress-rate ('dynamic fatigue') test data. For ceramic materials with Weibull modulus greater than 10, the difference in the SCG parameters between the two estimation methods was negligible; whereas, for glass specimens exhibiting Weibull modulus of about 3, the difference was amplified, resulting in a maximum difference of 16 and 13 %, respectively, in n and D. Of the two SCG parameters, the parameter n was more sensitive to the estimation method than the other. The coefficient of variation in n was found to be somewhat greater in the individual data method than in the arithmetic mean method.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. C.; Wimmer, J. M.

1986-01-01

Silicon nitride is a high temperature material currently under consideration for heat engine and other applications. The objective is to improve the net shape fabrication technology of Si3N4 by injection molding. This is to be accomplished by optimizing the process through a series of statistically designed matrix experiments. To provide input to the matrix experiments, a wide range of alternate materials and processing parameters was investigated throughout the whole program. The improvement in the processing is to be demonstrated by a 20 percent increase in strength and a 100 percent increase in the Weibull modulus over that of the baseline material. A full characterization of the baseline process was completed. Material properties were found to be highly dependent on each step of the process. Several important parameters identified thus far are the starting raw materials, sinter/hot isostatic pressing cycle, powder bed, mixing methods, and sintering aid levels.

Effect of the microstructure on the lifetime of dental ceramics.

PubMed

Borba, Márcia; de Araújo, Maico D; Fukushima, Karen A; Yoshimura, Humberto N; Cesar, Paulo F; Griggs, Jason A; Della Bona, Alvaro

2011-07-01

To evaluate the effect of the microstructure on the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters and on the lifetime of three ceramics used as framework materials for fixed partial dentures (FPDs) (YZ - Vita In-Ceram YZ; IZ - Vita In-Ceram Zirconia; AL - Vita In-Ceram AL) and of two veneering porcelains (VM7 and VM9). Bar-shaped specimens were fabricated according to the manufacturer's instructions. Specimens were tested in three-point flexure in 37°C artificial saliva. Weibull analysis (n=30) and a constant stress-rate test (n=10) were used to determine the Weibull modulus (m) and SCG coefficient (n), respectively. Microstructural and fractographic analyzes were performed using SEM. ANOVA and Tukey's test (α=0.05) were used to statistically analyze data obtained with both microstructural and fractographic analyzes. YZ and AL presented high crystalline content and low porosity (0.1-0.2%). YZ had the highest characteristic strength (σ(0)) value (911MPa) followed by AL (488MPa) and IZ (423MPa). Lower σ(0) values were observed for the porcelains (68-75MPa). Except for IZ and VM7, m values were similar among the ceramic materials. Higher n values were found for YZ (76) and AL (72), followed by IZ (54) and the veneering materials (36-44). Lifetime predictions showed that YZ was the material with the best mechanical performance. The size of the critical flaw was similar among the framework materials (34-48μm) and among the porcelains (75-86μm). The microstructure influenced the mechanical and SCG behavior of the studied materials and, consequently, the lifetime predictions. Copyright © 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of desiccation tolerance among Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Cronobacter sakazakii in powdered infant formula.

PubMed

Koseki, Shigenobu; Nakamura, Nobutaka; Shiina, Takeo

2015-01-01

Bacterial pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella enterica, and Cronobacter sakazakii have demonstrated long-term survival in/on dry or low-water activity (aw) foods. However, there have been few comparative studies on the desiccation tolerance among these bacterial pathogens separately in a same food matrix. In the present study, the survival kinetics of the four bacterial pathogens separately inoculated onto powdered infant formula as a model low-aw food was compared during storage at 5, 22, and 35°C. No significant differences in the survival kinetics between E. coli O157:H7 and L. monocytogenes were observed. Salmonella showed significantly higher desiccation tolerance than these pathogens, and C. sakazakii demonstrated significantly higher desiccation tolerance than all other three bacteria studied. Thus, the desiccation tolerance was represented as C. sakazakii > Salmonella > E. coli O157:H7 = L. monocytogenes. The survival kinetics of each bacterium was mathematically analyzed, and the observed kinetics was successfully described using the Weibull model. To evaluate the variability of the inactivation kinetics of the tested bacterial pathogens, the Monte Carlo simulation was performed using assumed probability distribution of the estimated fitted parameters. The simulation results showed that the storage temperature significantly influenced survival of each bacterium under the dry environment, where the bacterial inactivation became faster with increasing storage temperature. Furthermore, the fitted rate and shape parameters of the Weibull model were successfully modelled as a function of temperature. The numerical simulation of the bacterial inactivation was realized using the functions of the parameters under arbitrary fluctuating temperature conditions.

Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a bivariate Gaussian-Weibull distribution from machine stress-rated data

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; David E. Kretschmann; James W. Evans

2016-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity, MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture, MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two- or threeparameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of wood...

Assessment of the instantaneous unit hydrograph derived from the theory of topologically random networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karlinger, M.R.; Troutman, B.M.

1985-01-01

An instantaneous unit hydrograph (iuh) based on the theory of topologically random networks (topological iuh) is evaluated in terms of sets of basin characteristics and hydraulic parameters. Hydrographs were computed using two linear routing methods for each of two drainage basins in the southeastern United States and are the basis of comparison for the topological iuh's. Elements in the sets of basin characteristics for the topological iuh's are the number of first-order streams only, (N), or the nuber of sources together with the number of channel links in the topological diameter (N, D); the hydraulic parameters are values of the celerity and diffusivity constant. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the mean celerity of the internal links in the network is the critical hydraulic parameter for determining the shape of the topological iuh, while the diffusivity constant has minimal effect on the topological iuh. Asymptotic results (source-only) indicate the number of sources need not be large to approximate the topological iuh with the Weibull probability density function.

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1989-01-01

The development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines is studied. Injection molding was the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals were to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in four-point loading. Statistically designed experiments were performed throughout the program and a fluid mixing process employing an attritor mixer was developed. Compositional improvements in the amounts and sources of boron and carbon used and a pressureless sintering cycle were developed which provided samples of about 99 percent of theoretical density. Strengths were found to improve significantly by annealing in air. Strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) with Weibull modulus of about 9 were obtained. Further improvements in Weibull modulus to about 16 were realized by proof testing. This is an increase of 86 percent in strength and 100 percent in Weibull modulus over the baseline data generated at the beginning of the program. Molding yields were improved and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. Magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectra were found to be useful in characterizing the SiC powder and the sintered samples. Turbocharger rotors were molded and examined as an indication of the moldability of the mixes which were developed in this program.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing either the power or Paris law relations. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating proof testing and fatigue parameter estimation are given.

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1987-01-01

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

Wind energy potential assessment of Cameroon's coastal regions for the installation of an onshore wind farm.

PubMed

Arreyndip, Nkongho Ayuketang; Joseph, Ebobenow; David, Afungchui

2016-11-01

For the future installation of a wind farm in Cameroon, the wind energy potentials of three of Cameroon's coastal cities (Kribi, Douala and Limbe) are assessed using NASA average monthly wind data for 31 years (1983-2013) and compared through Weibull statistics. The Weibull parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood, the mean power densities, the maximum energy carrying wind speeds and the most probable wind speeds are also calculated and compared over these three cities. Finally, the cumulative wind speed distributions over the wet and dry seasons are also analyzed. The results show that the shape and scale parameters for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 2.9 and 2.8, 3.9 and 1.8 and 3.08 and 2.58, respectively. The mean power densities through Weibull analysis for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 33.7 W/m2, 8.0 W/m2 and 25.42 W/m2, respectively. Kribi's most probable wind speed and maximum energy carrying wind speed was found to be 2.42 m/s and 3.35 m/s, 2.27 m/s and 3.03 m/s for Limbe and 1.67 m/s and 2.0 m/s for Douala, respectively. Analysis of the wind speed and hence power distribution over the wet and dry seasons shows that in the wet season, August is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while September is the windiest month for Kribi while in the dry season, March is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while February is the windiest month for Kribi. In terms of mean power density, most probable wind speed and wind speed carrying maximum energy, Kribi shows to be the best site for the installation of a wind farm. Generally, the wind speeds at all three locations seem quite low, average wind speeds of all the three studied locations fall below 4.0m/s which is far below the cut-in wind speed of many modern wind turbines. However we recommend the use of low cut-in speed wind turbines like the Savonius for stand alone low energy needs.

The Effect of Sr Modifier Additions on Double Oxide Film Defects in 2L99 Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qi; Griffiths, W. D.

2017-11-01

In this paper, Sr modifier (300 ppm) was added to 2L99 alloy sand castings to investigate its effect on bifilm defects in the castings. Two different sand molds were used in this study, with good and bad running system designs, to introduce different amounts of bifilm defects into the castings. The mechanical properties of the modified 2L99 castings were compared to the properties of unmodified castings and showed that with high bifilm defect contents (H) the Sr addition reduced the Weibull modulus of the UTS by 67 pct and the Position Parameter by 5 pct, and introduced a bimodal distribution into the Weibull plot of the pct Elongation. However, for castings with low bifilm defect content (L), the Weibull moduli of both the UTS and pct Elongation were significantly improved (by 78 and 73 pct, respectively) with the addition of Sr. The Position Parameter of the pct Elongation was improved by 135 pct. The results suggested that a desirable modification effect can only be achieved while the bifilm defect content in a casting was low.

A Weibull model to describe antimicrobial kinetics of oregano and lemongrass essential oils against Salmonella Enteritidis in ground beef during refrigerated storage.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Thales Leandro Coutinho; Soares, Rodrigo de Araújo; Piccoli, Roberta Hilsdorf

2013-03-01

The antimicrobial effect of oregano (Origanum vulgare L.) and lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus (DC.) Stapf.) essential oils (EOs) against Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis in in vitro experiments, and inoculated in ground bovine meat during refrigerated storage (4±2 °C) for 6 days was evaluated. The Weibull model was tested to fit survival/inactivation bacterial curves (estimating of p and δ parameters). The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) value for both EOs on S. Enteritidis was 3.90 μl/ml. The EO concentrations applied in the ground beef were 3.90, 7.80 and 15.60 μl/g, based on MIC levels and possible activity reduction by food constituents. Both evaluated EOs in all tested levels, showed antimicrobial effects, with microbial populations reducing (p≤0.05) along time storage. Evaluating fit-quality parameters (RSS and RSE) Weibull models are able to describe the inactivation curves of EOs against S. Enteritidis. The application of EOs in processed meats can be used to control pathogens during refrigerated shelf-life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fabrication Quality Analysis of a Fiber Optic Refractive Index Sensor Created by CO2 Laser Machining

PubMed Central

Chen, Chien-Hsing; Yeh, Bo-Kuan; Tang, Jaw-Luen; Wu, Wei-Te

2013-01-01

This study investigates the CO2 laser-stripped partial cladding of silica-based optic fibers with a core diameter of 400 μm, which enables them to sense the refractive index of the surrounding environment. However, inappropriate treatments during the machining process can generate a number of defects in the optic fiber sensors. Therefore, the quality of optic fiber sensors fabricated using CO2 laser machining must be analyzed. The results show that analysis of the fiber core size after machining can provide preliminary defect detection, and qualitative analysis of the optical transmission defects can be used to identify imperfections that are difficult to observe through size analysis. To more precisely and quantitatively detect fabrication defects, we included a tensile test and numerical aperture measurements in this study. After a series of quality inspections, we proposed improvements to the existing CO2 laser machining parameters, namely, a vertical scanning pathway, 4 W of power, and a feed rate of 9.45 cm/s. Using these improved parameters, we created optical fiber sensors with a core diameter of approximately 400 μm, no obvious optical transmission defects, a numerical aperture of 0.52 ± 0.019, a 0.886 Weibull modulus, and a 1.186 Weibull-shaped parameter. Finally, we used the optical fiber sensor fabricated using the improved parameters to measure the refractive indices of various solutions. The results show that a refractive-index resolution of 1.8 × 10−4 RIU (linear fitting R2 = 0.954) was achieved for sucrose solutions with refractive indices ranging between 1.333 and 1.383. We also adopted the particle plasmon resonance sensing scheme using the fabricated optical fibers. The results provided additional information, specifically, a superior sensor resolution of 5.73 × 10−5 RIU, and greater linearity at R2 = 0.999. PMID:23535636

The Age Specific Incidence Anomaly Suggests that Cancers Originate During Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brody, James P.

The accumulation of genetic alterations causes cancers. Since this accumulation takes time, the incidence of most cancers is thought to increase exponentially with age. However, careful measurements of the age-specific incidence show that the specific incidence for many forms of cancer rises with age to a maximum, and then decreases. This decrease in the age-specific incidence with age is an anomaly. Understanding this anomaly should lead to a better understanding of how tumors develop and grow. Here we derive the shape of the age-specific incidence, showing that it should follow the shape of a Weibull distribution. Measurements indicate that the age-specific incidence for colon cancer does indeed follow a Weibull distribution. This analysis leads to the interpretation that for colon cancer two subpopulations exist in the general population: a susceptible population and an immune population. Colon tumors will only occur in the susceptible population. This analysis is consistent with the developmental origins of disease hypothesis and generalizable to many other common forms of cancer.

On Weibull's Spectrum of Nonrelativistic Energetic Particles at IP Shocks: Observations and Theoretical Interpretation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pallocchia, G.; Laurenza, M.; Consolini, G.

2017-03-10

Some interplanetary shocks are associated with short-term and sharp particle flux enhancements near the shock front. Such intensity enhancements, known as shock-spike events (SSEs), represent a class of relatively energetic phenomena as they may extend to energies of some tens of MeV or even beyond. Here we present an SSE case study in order to shed light on the nature of the particle acceleration involved in this kind of event. Our observations refer to an SSE registered on 2011 October 3 at 22:23 UT, by STEREO B instrumentation when, at a heliocentric distance of 1.08 au, the spacecraft was sweptmore » by a perpendicular shock moving away from the Sun. The main finding from the data analysis is that a Weibull distribution represents a good fitting function to the measured particle spectrum over the energy range from 0.1 to 30 MeV. To interpret such an observational result, we provide a theoretical derivation of the Weibull spectrum in the framework of the acceleration by “killed” stochastic processes exhibiting power-law growth in time of the velocity expectation, such as the classical Fermi process. We find an overall coherence between the experimental values of the Weibull spectrum parameters and their physical meaning within the above scenario. Hence, our approach based on the Weibull distribution proves to be useful for understanding SSEs. With regard to the present event, we also provide an alternative explanation of the Weibull spectrum in terms of shock-surfing acceleration.« less

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1989-01-01

A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

An EOQ model for weibull distribution deterioration with time-dependent cubic demand and backlogging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model with weibull deterioration and time dependent cubic demand rate where holding costs as a linear function of time. Shortages are allowed in the inventory system are partially and fully backlogging. The objective of this model is to minimize the total inventory cost by using the optimal order quantity and the cycle length. The proposed model is illustrated by numerical examples and the sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effect of changes in parameters on the optimum solutions.

Correction to the Dynamic Tensile Strength of Ice and Ice-Silicate Mixtures (Lange & Ahrens 1983)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S. T.; Ahrens, T. J.

1999-03-01

We present a correction to the Weibull parameters for ice and ice-silicate mixtures (Lange & Ahrens 1983). These parameters relate the dynamic tensile strength to the strain rate. These data are useful for continuum fracture models of ice.

ZERODUR - bending strength: review of achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2017-08-01

Increased demand for using the glass ceramic ZERODUR® with high mechanical loads called for strength data based on larger statistical samples. Design calculations for failure probability target value below 1: 100 000 cannot be made reliable with parameters derived from 20 specimen samples. The data now available for a variety of surface conditions, ground with different grain sizes and acid etched for full micro crack removal, allow stresses by factors four to ten times higher than before. The large sample revealed that breakage stresses of ground surfaces follow the three parameter Weibull distribution instead of the two parameter version. This is more reasonable considering that the micro cracks of such surfaces have a maximum depth which is reflected in the existence of a threshold breakage stress below which breakage probability is zero. This minimum strength allows calculating minimum lifetimes. Fatigue under load can be taken into account by using the stress corrosion coefficient for the actual environmental humidity. For fully etched surfaces Weibull statistics fails. The precondition of the Weibull distribution, the existence of one unique failure mechanism, is not given anymore. ZERODUR® with fully etched surfaces free from damages introduced after etching endures easily 100 MPa tensile stress. The possibility to use ZERODUR® for combined high precision and high stress application was confirmed by the successful launch and continuing operation of LISA Pathfinder the precursor experiment for the gravitational wave antenna satellite array eLISA.

Analysis of adverse events of renal impairment related to platinum-based compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database.

PubMed

Naganuma, Misa; Motooka, Yumi; Sasaoka, Sayaka; Hatahira, Haruna; Hasegawa, Shiori; Fukuda, Akiho; Nakao, Satoshi; Shimada, Kazuyo; Hirade, Koseki; Mori, Takayuki; Yoshimura, Tomoaki; Kato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro

2018-01-01

Platinum compounds cause several adverse events, such as nephrotoxicity, gastrointestinal toxicity, myelosuppression, ototoxicity, and neurotoxicity. We evaluated the incidence of renal impairment as adverse events are related to the administration of platinum compounds using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database. We analyzed adverse events associated with the use of platinum compounds reported from April 2004 to November 2016. The reporting odds ratio at 95% confidence interval was used to detect the signal for each renal impairment incidence. We evaluated the time-to-onset profile of renal impairment and assessed the hazard type using Weibull shape parameter and used the applied association rule mining technique to discover undetected relationships such as possible risk factor. In total, 430,587 reports in the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database were analyzed. The reporting odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for renal impairment resulting from the use of cisplatin, oxaliplatin, carboplatin, and nedaplatin were 2.7 (2.5-3.0), 0.6 (0.5-0.7), 0.8 (0.7-1.0), and 1.3 (0.8-2.1), respectively. The lower limit of the reporting odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for cisplatin was >1. The median (lower-upper quartile) onset time of renal impairment following the use of platinum-based compounds was 6.0-8.0 days. The Weibull shape parameter β and 95% confidence interval upper limit of oxaliplatin were <1. In the association rule mining, the score of lift for patients who were treated with cisplatin and co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed was high. Similarly, the scores for patients with hypertension or diabetes mellitus were high. Our findings suggest a potential risk of renal impairment during cisplatin use in real-world setting. The present findings demonstrate that the incidence of renal impairment following cisplatin use should be closely monitored when patients are hypertensive or diabetic, or when they are co-administered furosemide, loxoprofen, or pemetrexed. In addition, healthcare professionals should closely assess a patient's background prior to treatment.

Empirical model based on Weibull distribution describing the destruction kinetics of natural microbiota in pineapple (Ananas comosus L.) puree during high-pressure processing.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Snehasis; Rao, Pavuluri Srinivasa; Mishra, Hari Niwas

2015-10-15

High pressure inactivation of natural microbiota viz. aerobic mesophiles (AM), psychrotrophs (PC), yeasts and molds (YM), total coliforms (TC) and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in pineapple puree was studied within the experimental domain of 0.1-600 MPa and 30-50 °C with a treatment time up to 20 min. A complete destruction of yeasts and molds was obtained at 500 MPa/50 °C/15 min; whereas no counts were detected for TC and LAB at 300 MPa/30 °C/15 min. A maximum of two log cycle reductions was obtained for YM during pulse pressurization at the severe process intensity of 600 MPa/50 °C/20 min. The Weibull model clearly described the non-linearity of the survival curves during the isobaric period. The tailing effect, as confirmed by the shape parameter (β) of the survival curve, was obtained in case of YM (β<1); whereas a shouldering effect (β>1) was observed for the other microbial groups. Analogous to thermal death kinetics, the activation energy (Ea, kJ·mol(-1)) and the activation volume (Va, mL·mol(-1)) values were computed further to describe the temperature and pressure dependencies of the scale parameter (δ, min), respectively. A higher δ value was obtained for each microbe at a lower temperature and it decreased with an increase in pressure. A secondary kinetic model was developed describing the inactivation rate (k, min(-1)) as a function of pressure (P, MPa) and temperature (T, K) including the dependencies of Ea and Va on P and T, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of SiC{sub f}/Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} composites under static and cyclic loading -- An experimental and statistical analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahfuz, H.; Maniruzzaman, M.; Vaidya, U.

1997-04-01

Monotonic tensile and fatigue response of continuous silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon nitride (SiC{sub f}/Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) composites has been investigated. The monotonic tensile tests have been performed at room and elevated temperatures. Fatigue tests have been conducted at room temperature (RT), at a stress ratio, R = 0.1 and a frequency of 5 Hz. It is observed during the monotonic tests that the composites retain only 30% of its room temperature strength at 1,600 C suggesting a substantial chemical degradation of the matrix at that temperature. The softening of the matrix at elevated temperature also causes reduction in tensilemore » modulus, and the total reduction in modulus is around 45%. Fatigue data have been generated at three load levels and the fatigue strength of the composite has been found to be considerably high; about 75% of its ultimate room temperature strength. Extensive statistical analysis has been performed to understand the degree of scatter in the fatigue as well as in the static test data. Weibull shape factors and characteristic values have been determined for each set of tests and their relationship with the response of the composites has been discussed. A statistical fatigue life prediction method developed from the Weibull distribution is also presented. Maximum Likelihood Estimator with censoring techniques and data pooling schemes has been employed to determine the distribution parameters for the statistical analysis. These parameters have been used to generate the S-N diagram with desired level of reliability. Details of the statistical analysis and the discussion of the static and fatigue behavior of the composites are presented in this paper.« less

Statistical distribution of mechanical properties for three graphite-epoxy material systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reese, C.; Sorem, J., Jr.

1981-01-01

Graphite-epoxy composites are playing an increasing role as viable alternative materials in structural applications necessitating thorough investigation into the predictability and reproducibility of their material strength properties. This investigation was concerned with tension, compression, and short beam shear coupon testing of large samples from three different material suppliers to determine their statistical strength behavior. Statistical results indicate that a two Parameter Weibull distribution model provides better overall characterization of material behavior for the graphite-epoxy systems tested than does the standard Normal distribution model that is employed for most design work. While either a Weibull or Normal distribution model provides adequate predictions for average strength values, the Weibull model provides better characterization in the lower tail region where the predictions are of maximum design interest. The two sets of the same material were found to have essentially the same material properties, and indicate that repeatability can be achieved.

Analysis of Weibull Grading Test for Solid Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Weibull grading test is a powerful technique that allows selection and reliability rating of solid tantalum capacitors for military and space applications. However, inaccuracies in the existing method and non-adequate acceleration factors can result in significant, up to three orders of magnitude, errors in the calculated failure rate of capacitors. This paper analyzes deficiencies of the existing technique and recommends more accurate method of calculations. A physical model presenting failures of tantalum capacitors as time-dependent-dielectric-breakdown is used to determine voltage and temperature acceleration factors and select adequate Weibull grading test conditions. This, model is verified by highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperature and voltage conditions for three types of solid chip tantalum capacitors. It is shown that parameters of the model and acceleration factors can be calculated using a general log-linear relationship for the characteristic life with two stress levels.

Time Variations in Forecasts and Occurrences of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahler, S. W.

2015-12-01

The onsets and development of large solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events have been characterized in many studies. The statistics of SEP event onset delay times from associated solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which depend on solar source longitudes, can be used to provide better predictions of whether a SEP event will occur following a large flare or fast CME. In addition, size distributions of peak SEP event intensities provide a means for a probabilistic forecast of peak intensities attained in observed SEP increases. SEP event peak intensities have been compared with their rise and decay times for insight into the acceleration and transport processes. These two time scales are generally treated as independent parameters describing the development of a SEP event, but we can invoke an alternative two-parameter description based on the assumption that decay times exceed rise times for all events. These two parameters, from the well known Weibull distribution, provide an event description in terms of its basic shape and duration. We apply this distribution to several large SEP events and ask what the characteristic parameters and their dependence on source longitudes can tell us about the origins of these important events.

Set statistics in conductive bridge random access memory device with Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Meiyun; Long, Shibing, E-mail: longshibing@ime.ac.cn; Wang, Guoming

2014-11-10

The switching parameter variation of resistive switching memory is one of the most important challenges in its application. In this letter, we have studied the set statistics of conductive bridge random access memory with a Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure. The experimental distributions of the set parameters in several off resistance ranges are shown to nicely fit a Weibull model. The Weibull slopes of the set voltage and current increase and decrease logarithmically with off resistance, respectively. This experimental behavior is perfectly captured by a Monte Carlo simulator based on the cell-based set voltage statistics model and the Quantum Point Contact electronmore » transport model. Our work provides indications for the improvement of the switching uniformity.« less

Novel point estimation from a semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE): long-term health outcomes from short-term linear data, with application to weight loss in obesity.

PubMed

Weissman-Miller, Deborah

2013-11-02

Point estimation is particularly important in predicting weight loss in individuals or small groups. In this analysis, a new health response function is based on a model of human response over time to estimate long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression. This important estimation capability is addressed for small groups and single-subject designs in pilot studies for clinical trials, medical and therapeutic clinical practice. These estimations are based on a change point given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The development of the change point in initial OLS data and the point estimations are given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator (SPRE) model. The new response function is taken as a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value that steps estimated outcomes forward in time, where the shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. The Weibull distributions used in this ratio are derived from a Kelvin model in mechanics taken here to represent human beings. A distinct feature of the SPRE model in this article is that initial treatment response for a small group or a single subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. This model is applied to weight loss in obesity in a secondary analysis of data from a classic weight loss study, which has been selected due to the dramatic increase in obesity in the United States over the past 20 years. A very small relative error of estimated to test data is shown for obesity treatment with the weight loss medication phentermine or placebo for the test dataset. An application of SPRE in clinical medicine or occupational therapy is to estimate long-term weight loss for a single subject or a small group near the beginning of treatment.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain.

PubMed

Rosa, Vinicius; Yoshimura, Humberto N; Pinto, Marcelo M; Fredericci, Catia; Cesar, Paulo F

2009-06-01

To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer's instructions, polished through 1 microm and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO3 paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n=10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5-62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3-10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material's reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group.

Assessment of wind energy potential and cost estimation of wind-generated electricity at hilltops surrounding the city of Maroua in Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaoga, Dieudonné Kidmo; Bogno, Bachirou; Aillerie, Michel; Raidandi, Danwe; Yamigno, Serge Doka; Hamandjoda, Oumarou; Tibi, Beda

2016-07-01

In this work, 28 years of wind data, measured at 10m above ground level (AGL), from Maroua meteorological station is utilized to assess the potential of wind energy at exposed ridges tops of mountains surrounding the city of Maroua. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost of wind-generated electricity using six types of wind turbines (50 to 2000 kW). The Weibull distribution function is employed to estimate Weibull shape and scale parameters using the energy pattern factor method. The considered wind shear model to extrapolate Weibull parameters and wind profiles is the empirical power law correlation. The results show that hilltops in the range of 150-350m AGL in increments of 50, fall under Class 3 or greater of the international system of wind classification and are deemed suitable to outstanding for wind turbine applications. A performance of the selected wind turbines is examined as well as the costs of wind-generated electricity at the considered hilltops. The results establish that the lowest costs per kWh are obtained using YDF-1500-87 (1500 kW) turbine while the highest costs are delivered by P-25-100 (90 kW). The lowest costs (US) per kWh of electricity generated are found to vary between a minimum of 0.0294 at hilltops 350m AGL and a maximum of 0.0366 at hilltops 150m AGL, with corresponding energy outputs that are 6,125 and 4,932 MWh, respectively. Additionally, the matching capacity factors values are 38.05% at hilltops 150m AGL and 47.26% at hilltops 350m AGL. Furthermore, YDF-1500-87 followed by Enercon E82-2000 (2000 kW) wind turbines provide the lowest cost of wind generated electricity and are recommended for use for large communities. Medium wind turbine P-15-50 (50 kW), despite showing the best coefficients factors (39.29% and 48.85% at hilltops 150 and 350m AGL, in that order), generates electricity at an average higher cost/kWh of US0.0547 and 0.0440 at hilltops 150 and 350m AGL, respectively. P-15-50 is deemed a more advantageous option for off-grid electrification of small and remote communities.

Experimental and computational correlation of fracture parameters KIc, JIc, and GIc for unimodular and bimodular graphite components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, Awani; Panda, S. K.

2018-05-01

The influence of bimodularity (different stress ∼ strain behaviour in tension and compression) on fracture behaviour of graphite specimens has been studied with fracture toughness (KIc), critical J-integral (JIc) and critical strain energy release rate (GIc) as the characterizing parameter. Bimodularity index (ratio of tensile Young's modulus to compression Young's modulus) of graphite specimens has been obtained from the normalized test data of tensile and compression experimentation. Single edge notch bend (SENB) testing of pre-cracked specimens from the same lot have been carried out as per ASTM standard D7779-11 to determine the peak load and critical fracture parameters KIc, GIc and JIc using digital image correlation technology of crack opening displacements. Weibull weakest link theory has been used to evaluate the mean peak load, Weibull modulus and goodness of fit employing two parameter least square method (LIN2), biased (MLE2-B) and unbiased (MLE2-U) maximum likelihood estimator. The stress dependent elasticity problem of three-dimensional crack progression behaviour for the bimodular graphite components has been solved as an iterative finite element procedure. The crack characterizing parameters critical stress intensity factor and critical strain energy release rate have been estimated with the help of Weibull distribution plot between peak loads versus cumulative probability of failure. Experimental and Computational fracture parameters have been compared qualitatively to describe the significance of bimodularity. The bimodular influence on fracture behaviour of SENB graphite has been reflected on the experimental evaluation of GIc values only, which has been found to be different from the calculated JIc values. Numerical evaluation of bimodular 3D J-integral value is found to be close to the GIc value whereas the unimodular 3D J-value is nearer to the JIc value. The significant difference between the unimodular JIc and bimodular GIc indicates that GIc should be considered as the standard fracture parameter for bimodular brittle specimens.

Numerical and machine learning simulation of parametric distributions of groundwater residence time in streams and wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starn, J. J.; Belitz, K.; Carlson, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater residence-time distributions (RTDs) are critical for assessing susceptibility of water resources to contamination. This novel approach for estimating regional RTDs was to first simulate groundwater flow using existing regional digital data sets in 13 intermediate size watersheds (each an average of 7,000 square kilometers) that are representative of a wide range of glacial systems. RTDs were simulated with particle tracking. We refer to these models as "general models" because they are based on regional, as opposed to site-specific, digital data. Parametric RTDs were created from particle RTDs by fitting 1- and 2-component Weibull, gamma, and inverse Gaussian distributions, thus reducing a large number of particle travel times to 3 to 7 parameters (shape, location, and scale for each component plus a mixing fraction) for each modeled area. The scale parameter of these distributions is related to the mean exponential age; the shape parameter controls departure from the ideal exponential distribution and is partly a function of interaction with bedrock and with drainage density. Given the flexible shape and mathematical similarity of these distributions, any of them are potentially a good fit to particle RTDs. The 1-component gamma distribution provided a good fit to basin-wide particle RTDs. RTDs at monitoring wells and streams often have more complicated shapes than basin-wide RTDs, caused in part by heterogeneity in the model, and generally require 2-component distributions. A machine learning model was trained on the RTD parameters using features derived from regionally available watershed characteristics such as recharge rate, material thickness, and stream density. RTDs appeared to vary systematically across the landscape in relation to watershed features. This relation was used to produce maps of useful metrics with respect to risk-based thresholds, such as the time to first exceedance, time to maximum concentration, time above the threshold (exposure time), and the time until last exceedance; thus, the parameters of groundwater residence time are measures of the intrinsic susceptibility of groundwater to contamination.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Hun C.; Fang, Ho T.

1987-01-01

The technology base required to fabricate silicon nitride components with the strength, reliability, and reproducibility necessary for actual heat engine applications is presented. Task 2 was set up to develop test bars with high Weibull slope and greater high temperature strength, and to conduct an initial net shape component fabrication evaluation. Screening experiments were performed in Task 7 on advanced materials and processing for input to Task 2. The technical efforts performed in the second year of a 5-yr program are covered. The first iteration of Task 2 was completed as planned. Two half-replicated, fractional factorial (2 sup 5), statistically designed matrix experiments were conducted. These experiments have identified Denka 9FW Si3N4 as an alternate raw material to GTE SN502 Si3N4 for subsequent process evaluation. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted to correlate processing conditions with as-processed test bar properties. One processing condition produced a material with a 97 ksi average room temperature MOR (100 percent of goal) with 13.2 Weibull slope (83 percent of goal); another condition produced 86 ksi (6 percent over baseline) room temperature strength with a Weibull slope of 20 (125 percent of goal).

Prediction of Mean and Design Fatigue Lives of Self Compacting Concrete Beams in Flexure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, S.; Singh, S. P.; Singh, P.; Kaushik, S. K.

2012-02-01

In this paper, result of an investigation conducted to study the flexural fatigue characteristics of self compacting concrete (SCC) beams in flexure are presented. An experimental programme was planned in which approximately 60 SCC beam specimens of size 100 × 100 × 500 mm were tested under flexural fatigue loading. Approximately 45 static flexural tests were also conducted to facilitate fatigue testing. The flexural fatigue and static flexural strength tests were conducted on a 100 kN servo-controlled actuator. The fatigue life data thus obtained have been used to establish the probability distributions of fatigue life of SCC using two-parameter Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull distribution have been obtained by different methods of analysis. Using the distribution parameters, the mean and design fatigue lives of SCC have been estimated and compared with Normally vibrated concrete (NVC), the data for which have been taken from literature. It has been observed that SCC exhibits higher mean and design fatigue lives compared to NVC.

Reliability, failure probability, and strength of resin-based materials for CAD/CAM restorations

PubMed Central

Lim, Kiatlin; Yap, Adrian U-Jin; Agarwalla, Shruti Vidhawan; Tan, Keson Beng-Choon; Rosa, Vinicius

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: This study investigated the Weibull parameters and 5% fracture probability of direct, indirect composites, and CAD/CAM composites. Material and Methods: Discshaped (12 mm diameter x 1 mm thick) specimens were prepared for a direct composite [Z100 (ZO), 3M-ESPE], an indirect laboratory composite [Ceramage (CM), Shofu], and two CAD/CAM composites [Lava Ultimate (LU), 3M ESPE; Vita Enamic (VE), Vita Zahnfabrik] restorations (n=30 for each group). The specimens were polished, stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C. Weibull parameters (m= modulus of Weibull, σ0= characteristic strength) and flexural strength for 5% fracture probability (σ5%) were determined using a piston-on-three-balls device at 1 MPa/s in distilled water. Statistical analysis for biaxial flexural strength analysis were performed either by both one-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc (α=0.05) or by Pearson's correlation test. Results: Ranking of m was: VE (19.5), LU (14.5), CM (11.7), and ZO (9.6). Ranking of σ0 (MPa) was: LU (218.1), ZO (210.4), CM (209.0), and VE (126.5). σ5% (MPa) was 177.9 for LU, 163.2 for CM, 154.7 for Z0, and 108.7 for VE. There was no significant difference in the m for ZO, CM, and LU. VE presented the highest m value and significantly higher than ZO. For σ0 and σ5%, ZO, CM, and LU were similar but higher than VE. Conclusion: The strength characteristics of CAD/ CAM composites vary according to their composition and microstructure. VE presented the lowest strength and highest Weibull modulus among the materials. PMID:27812614

Investigation on sodium benzoate release from poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate)/organoclay/sodium benzoate based nanocomposite film and their antimicrobial activity.

PubMed

Mondal, Dibyendu; Bhowmick, Biplab; Maity, Dipanwita; Mollick, Md Masud R; Rana, Dipak; Rangarajan, Vivek; Sen, Ramkrishna; Chattopadhyay, Dipankar

2015-03-01

Polymeric nanocomposites embedded with nontoxic antimicrobial agents have recently gained potential industrial significance, mainly for their applicability to preserve food quality and ensure safety. In this study, a poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT)/organoclay (CMMT) based nanocomposite film doped with sodium benzoate (SB) as antimicrobial agent was prepared by a solution mixing process. A homogenous dispersion of organoclay (cetyltrimethylammonium-modified montmorillonite [CMMT]) in PBAT matrix was observed by X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy. PBAT/CMMT nanocomposite film showed higher barrier properties against water and methanol vapor compared to the PBAT film. The release of SB from PBAT and its nanocomposite film was measured and the relevant data were fitted to the Weibull model. The higher values of Weibull's shape factor and scale parameter as corroborated by experimental findings indicated faster rate of SB release from PBAT/CMMT/SB nanocomposite film, when compared to the pristine PBAT film. Bacterial inhibition studies were accomplished against 2 food pathogenic bacteria, Bacillus subtilis and Staphylococcus aureus, by determining the zone of inhibition and corresponding growth profiles. Both bacterial inhibition studies and growth profiles established that PBAT/CMMT/SB demonstrated better antimicrobial activity than PBAT/SB film. Therefore, PBAT/CMMT/SB nanocomposite film can be used for food packaging application as it showed good barrier properties and antimicrobial activity against food pathogenic bacteria. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

Weibull mixture regression for marginal inference in zero-heavy continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Gebregziabher, Mulugeta; Voronca, Delia; Teklehaimanot, Abeba; Santa Ana, Elizabeth J

2017-06-01

Continuous outcomes with preponderance of zero values are ubiquitous in data that arise from biomedical studies, for example studies of addictive disorders. This is known to lead to violation of standard assumptions in parametric inference and enhances the risk of misleading conclusions unless managed properly. Two-part models are commonly used to deal with this problem. However, standard two-part models have limitations with respect to obtaining parameter estimates that have marginal interpretation of covariate effects which are important in many biomedical applications. Recently marginalized two-part models are proposed but their development is limited to log-normal and log-skew-normal distributions. Thus, in this paper, we propose a finite mixture approach, with Weibull mixture regression as a special case, to deal with the problem. We use extensive simulation study to assess the performance of the proposed model in finite samples and to make comparisons with other family of models via statistical information and mean squared error criteria. We demonstrate its application on real data from a randomized controlled trial of addictive disorders. Our results show that a two-component Weibull mixture model is preferred for modeling zero-heavy continuous data when the non-zero part are simulated from Weibull or similar distributions such as Gamma or truncated Gauss.

ZERODUR: deterministic approach for strength design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2012-12-01

There is an increasing request for zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR substrates being capable of enduring higher operational static loads or accelerations. The integrity of structures such as optical or mechanical elements for satellites surviving rocket launches, filigree lightweight mirrors, wobbling mirrors, and reticle and wafer stages in microlithography must be guaranteed with low failure probability. Their design requires statistically relevant strength data. The traditional approach using the statistical two-parameter Weibull distribution suffered from two problems. The data sets were too small to obtain distribution parameters with sufficient accuracy and also too small to decide on the validity of the model. This holds especially for the low failure probability levels that are required for reliable applications. Extrapolation to 0.1% failure probability and below led to design strengths so low that higher load applications seemed to be not feasible. New data have been collected with numbers per set large enough to enable tests on the applicability of the three-parameter Weibull distribution. This distribution revealed to provide much better fitting of the data. Moreover it delivers a lower threshold value, which means a minimum value for breakage stress, allowing of removing statistical uncertainty by introducing a deterministic method to calculate design strength. Considerations taken from the theory of fracture mechanics as have been proven to be reliable with proof test qualifications of delicate structures made from brittle materials enable including fatigue due to stress corrosion in a straight forward way. With the formulae derived, either lifetime can be calculated from given stress or allowable stress from minimum required lifetime. The data, distributions, and design strength calculations for several practically relevant surface conditions of ZERODUR are given. The values obtained are significantly higher than those resulting from the two-parameter Weibull distribution approach and no longer subject to statistical uncertainty.

Distributions of Autocorrelated First-Order Kinetic Outcomes: Illness Severity

PubMed Central

Englehardt, James D.

2015-01-01

Many complex systems produce outcomes having recurring, power law-like distributions over wide ranges. However, the form necessarily breaks down at extremes, whereas the Weibull distribution has been demonstrated over the full observed range. Here the Weibull distribution is derived as the asymptotic distribution of generalized first-order kinetic processes, with convergence driven by autocorrelation, and entropy maximization subject to finite positive mean, of the incremental compounding rates. Process increments represent multiplicative causes. In particular, illness severities are modeled as such, occurring in proportion to products of, e.g., chronic toxicant fractions passed by organs along a pathway, or rates of interacting oncogenic mutations. The Weibull form is also argued theoretically and by simulation to be robust to the onset of saturation kinetics. The Weibull exponential parameter is shown to indicate the number and widths of the first-order compounding increments, the extent of rate autocorrelation, and the degree to which process increments are distributed exponential. In contrast with the Gaussian result in linear independent systems, the form is driven not by independence and multiplicity of process increments, but by increment autocorrelation and entropy. In some physical systems the form may be attracting, due to multiplicative evolution of outcome magnitudes towards extreme values potentially much larger and smaller than control mechanisms can contain. The Weibull distribution is demonstrated in preference to the lognormal and Pareto I for illness severities versus (a) toxicokinetic models, (b) biologically-based network models, (c) scholastic and psychological test score data for children with prenatal mercury exposure, and (d) time-to-tumor data of the ED01 study. PMID:26061263

ZERODUR strength modeling with Weibull statistical distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2016-07-01

The decisive influence on breakage strength of brittle materials such as the low expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR is the surface condition. For polished or etched surfaces it is essential if micro cracks are present and how deep they are. Ground surfaces have many micro cracks caused by the generation process. Here only the depths of the micro cracks are relevant. In any case presence and depths of micro cracks are statistical by nature. The Weibull distribution is the model used traditionally for the representation of such data sets. It is based on the weakest link ansatz. The use of the two or three parameter Weibull distribution for data representation and reliability prediction depends on the underlying crack generation mechanisms. Before choosing the model for a specific evaluation, some checks should be done. Is there only one mechanism present or is it to be expected that an additional mechanism might contribute deviating results? For ground surfaces the main mechanism is the diamond grains' action on the surface. However, grains breaking from their bonding might be moved by the tool across the surface introducing a slightly deeper crack. It is not to be expected that these scratches follow the same statistical distribution as the grinding process. Hence, their description with the same distribution parameters is not adequate. Before including them a dedicated discussion should be performed. If there is additional information available influencing the selection of the model, for example the existence of a maximum crack depth, this should be taken into account also. Micro cracks introduced by small diamond grains on tools working with limited forces cannot be arbitrarily deep. For data obtained with such surfaces the existence of a threshold breakage stress should be part of the hypothesis. This leads to the use of the three parameter Weibull distribution. A differentiation based on the data set alone without preexisting information is possible but requires a large data set. With only 20 specimens per sample such differentiation is not possible. This requires 100 specimens per set, the more the better. The validity of the statistical evaluation methods is discussed with several examples. These considerations are of special importance because of their consequences on the prognosis methods and results. Especially the use of the two parameter Weibull distribution for high strength surfaces has led to non-realistic results. Extrapolation down to low acceptable probability of failure covers a wide range without data points existing and is mainly influenced by the slope determined by the high strength specimens. In the past this misconception has prevented the use of brittle materials for stress loads, which they could have endured easily.

Mechanical, Chemical and Microstructural Characterization of Monazite-Coated Silicon Carbide Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, N. P.; Wheeler, D. R.; Chen, Y. L.

2000-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers and those having monazite surface coatings, deposited by atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition, were measured at room temperature and the Weibull statistical parameters determined. The average tensile strengths of uncoated Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers were 3.19 +/- 0.73 and 2.78 +/- 0.53 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41 and 5.52, respectively. The monazite-coated Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers showed strength loss of approx. 10 and 15 percent, respectively, compared with the as-received fibers. The elemental compositions of the fibers and the coatings were analyzed using scanning Auger microprobe and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The LaPO4 coating on Hi-Nicalon fibers was approximately stoichiometric and about 50 nm thick. The coating on the Sylramic fibers extended to a depth of about 100 to 150 nm. The coating may have been stoichiometric LaPO4 in the first 30 to 40 nm of the layer. However, the surface roughness of Sylramic fiber made this profile somewhat difficult to interpret. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and selected area electron diffraction. Hi-Nicalon fiber consists of fine beta-SiC nanocrystals ranging in size from 1 to 30 mn embedded in an amorphous matrix. Sylramic is a polycrystalline stoichiometric silicon carbide fiber consisting of submicron beta-SiC crystallites ranging from 100 to 300 nm. Small amount of TiB2 nanocrystallites (approx. 50 nm) are also present. The LaPO4 coating on Hi-Nicalon fibers consisted of a chain of peanut shape particles having monazite-(La) structure. The coating on Sylramic fibers consisted of two layers. The inner layer was a chain of peanut shape particles having monazite-(La) structure. The outer layer was comprised of much smaller particles with a microcrystalline structure.

EU-Norsewind Using Envisat ASAR And Other Data For Offshore Wind Atlas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasager, Charlotte B.; Mouche, Alexis; Badger, Merete

2010-04-01

The EU project NORSEWIND - short for Northern Seas Wind Index Database - www.norsewind.eu has the aim to produce state-of-the-art wind atlas for the Baltic, Irish and North Seas using ground-based lidar, meteorological masts, satellite data and mesoscale modelling. So far CLS and Risø DTU have collected Envisat ASAR images for the area of interest and the first results: maps of wind statistics, Weibull scale and shape parameters, mean and energy density are presented. The results will be compared to a distributed network of high-quality in-situ observations and mesoscale model results during 2009-2011 as the in-situ data and model results become available. Wind energy is proportional with wind speed to the third power, thus even small improvements on wind speed mapping are important in this project. One challenge is to arrive at hub-height winds ~100 m above sea level.

Statistical damage constitutive model for rocks subjected to cyclic stress and cyclic temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shu-Wei; Xia, Cai-Chu; Zhao, Hai-Bin; Mei, Song-Hua; Zhou, Yu

2017-10-01

A constitutive model of rocks subjected to cyclic stress-temperature was proposed. Based on statistical damage theory, the damage constitutive model with Weibull distribution was extended. Influence of model parameters on the stress-strain curve for rock reloading after stress-temperature cycling was then discussed. The proposed model was initially validated by rock tests for cyclic stress-temperature and only cyclic stress. Finally, the total damage evolution induced by stress-temperature cycling and reloading after cycling was explored and discussed. The proposed constitutive model is reasonable and applicable, describing well the stress-strain relationship during stress-temperature cycles and providing a good fit to the test results. Elastic modulus in the reference state and the damage induced by cycling affect the shape of reloading stress-strain curve. Total damage induced by cycling and reloading after cycling exhibits three stages: initial slow increase, mid-term accelerated increase, and final slow increase.

What are the Shapes of Response Time Distributions in Visual Search?

PubMed Central

Palmer, Evan M.; Horowitz, Todd S.; Torralba, Antonio; Wolfe, Jeremy M.

2011-01-01

Many visual search experiments measure reaction time (RT) as their primary dependent variable. Analyses typically focus on mean (or median) RT. However, given enough data, the RT distribution can be a rich source of information. For this paper, we collected about 500 trials per cell per observer for both target-present and target-absent displays in each of three classic search tasks: feature search, with the target defined by color; conjunction search, with the target defined by both color and orientation; and spatial configuration search for a 2 among distractor 5s. This large data set allows us to characterize the RT distributions in detail. We present the raw RT distributions and fit several psychologically motivated functions (ex-Gaussian, ex-Wald, Gamma, and Weibull) to the data. We analyze and interpret parameter trends from these four functions within the context of theories of visual search. PMID:21090905

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1994-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemeth, N.N.; Janosik, L.A.; Gyekenyesi, J.P.

1996-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength andmore » fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens, which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.« less

Strength of Zerodur® for mirror applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béhar-Lafenêtre, S.; Cornillon, Laurence; Ait-Zaid, Sonia

2015-09-01

Zerodur® is a well-known glass-ceramic used for optical components because of its unequalled dimensional stability under thermal environment. In particular it has been used since decades in Thales Alenia Space's optical payloads for space telescopes, especially for mirrors. The drawback of Zerodur® is however its quite low strength, but the relatively small size of mirrors in the past had made it unnecessary to further investigate this aspect, although elementary tests have always shown higher failure strength. As performance of space telescopes is increasing, the size of mirrors increases accordingly, and an optimization of the design is necessary, mainly for mass saving. Therefore the question of the effective strength of Zerodur® has become a real issue. Thales Alenia Space has investigated the application of the Weibull law and associated size effects on Zerodur® in 2014, under CNES funding, through a thorough test campaign with a high number of samples (300) of various types. The purpose was to accurately determine the parameters of the Weibull law for Zerodur® when machined in the same conditions as mirrors. The proposed paper will discuss the obtained results, in the light of the Weibull theory. The applicability of the 2-parameter and 3-parameter (with threshold strength) laws will be compared. The expected size effect has not been evidenced therefore some investigations are led to determine the reasons of this result, from the test implementation quality to the data post-processing methodology. However this test campaign has already provided enough data to safely increase the allowable value for mirrors sizing.

Why joints are more abundant than faults. A conceptual model to estimate their ratio in layered carbonate rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caputo, Riccardo

2010-09-01

It is a commonplace field observation that extension fractures are more abundant than shear fractures. The questions of how much more abundant, and why, are posed in this paper and qualitative estimates of their ratio within a rock volume are made on the basis of field observations and mechanical considerations. A conceptual model is also proposed to explain the common range of ratios between extension and shear fractures, here called the j/ f ratio. The model considers three major genetic stress components originated from overburden, pore-fluid pressure and tectonics and assumes that some of the remote genetic stress components vary with time ( i.e. stress-rates are included). Other important assumptions of the numerical model are that: i) the strength of the sub-volumes is randomly attributed following a Weibull probabilistic distribution, ii) all fractures heal after a given time, thus simulating the cementation process, and therefore iii) both extensional jointing and shear fracturing could be recurrent events within the same sub-volume. As a direct consequence of these assumptions, the stress tensor at any point varies continuously in time and these variations are caused by both remote stresses and local stress drops associated with in-situ and neighbouring fracturing events. The conceptual model is implemented in a computer program to simulate layered carbonate rock bodies undergoing brittle deformation. The numerical results are obtained by varying the principal parameters, like depth ( viz. confining pressure), tensile strength, pore-fluid pressure and shape of the Weibull distribution function, in a wide range of values, therefore simulating a broad spectrum of possible mechanical and lithological conditions. The quantitative estimates of the j/ f ratio confirm the general predominance of extensional failure events during brittle deformation in shallow crustal rocks and provide useful insights for better understanding the role played by the different parameters. For example, as a general trend it is observed that the j/ f ratio is inversely proportional to depth ( viz. confining pressure) and directly proportional to pore-fluid pressure, while the stronger is the rock, the wider is the range of depths showing a finite value of the j/ f ratio and in general the deeper are the conditions where extension fractures can form. Moreover, the wider is the strength variability of rocks ( i.e. the lower is the m parameter of the Weibull probabilistic distribution function), the wider is the depth range where both fractures can form providing a finite value of the j/ f ratio. Natural case studies from different geological and tectonic settings are also used to test the conceptual model and the numerical results showing a good agreement between measured and predicted j/ f ratios.

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1987-01-01

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Use of simulation tools to illustrate the effect of data management practices for low and negative plate counts on the estimated parameters of microbial reduction models.

PubMed

Garcés-Vega, Francisco; Marks, Bradley P

2014-08-01

In the last 20 years, the use of microbial reduction models has expanded significantly, including inactivation (linear and nonlinear), survival, and transfer models. However, a major constraint for model development is the impossibility to directly quantify the number of viable microorganisms below the limit of detection (LOD) for a given study. Different approaches have been used to manage this challenge, including ignoring negative plate counts, using statistical estimations, or applying data transformations. Our objective was to illustrate and quantify the effect of negative plate count data management approaches on parameter estimation for microbial reduction models. Because it is impossible to obtain accurate plate counts below the LOD, we performed simulated experiments to generate synthetic data for both log-linear and Weibull-type microbial reductions. We then applied five different, previously reported data management practices and fit log-linear and Weibull models to the resulting data. The results indicated a significant effect (α = 0.05) of the data management practices on the estimated model parameters and performance indicators. For example, when the negative plate counts were replaced by the LOD for log-linear data sets, the slope of the subsequent log-linear model was, on average, 22% smaller than for the original data, the resulting model underpredicted lethality by up to 2.0 log, and the Weibull model was erroneously selected as the most likely correct model for those data. The results demonstrate that it is important to explicitly report LODs and related data management protocols, which can significantly affect model results, interpretation, and utility. Ultimately, we recommend using only the positive plate counts to estimate model parameters for microbial reduction curves and avoiding any data value substitutions or transformations when managing negative plate counts to yield the most accurate model parameters.

Tensile Strength and Microstructural Characterization of Uncoated and Coated HPZ Ceramic Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.; Wheeler, Donald R.; Dickerson, Robert M.

1996-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received HPZ fiber and those surface coated with BN, BN/SiC, and BN/Si3N4 have been determined at room temperature using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Nominally approx. 0.4 micron BN and 0.2 micron SiC or Si3N4 coatings were deposited on the fibers by chemical vapor deposition using a continuous reactor. The average tensile strength of uncoated HPZ fiber was 2.0 +/- 0.56 GPa (290 +/- 81 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 4.1. For the BN coated fibers, the average strength and the Weibull modulus increased to 2.39 +/- 0.44 GPa (346 +/- 64 ksi) and 6.5, respectively. The HPZ/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 2.0 +/- 0.32 GPa (290 +/- 47 ksi) and Weibull modulus of 7.3. Average strength of the fibers having a dual BN/Si3N4 surface coating degraded to 1.15 +/- 0.26 GPa (166 +/- 38 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 5.3. The chemical composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were determined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analysis of the fibers and the coatings was carried out by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. A microporous silica-rich layer approx. 200 nm thick is present on the as-received HPZ fiber surface. The BN coatings on the fibers are amorphous to partly turbostratic and contaminated with carbon and oxygen. Silicon carbide coating was crystalline whereas the silicon nitride coating was amorphous. The silicon carbide and silicon nitride coatings are non-stoichiometric, non-uniform, and granular. Within a fiber tow, the fibers on the outside had thicker and more granular coatings than those on the inside.

Mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease: applications to a cohort assembled from electronic health records.

PubMed

Cheung, Li C; Pan, Qing; Hyun, Noorie; Schiffman, Mark; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Lorey, Thomas; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-09-30

For cost-effectiveness and efficiency, many large-scale general-purpose cohort studies are being assembled within large health-care providers who use electronic health records. Two key features of such data are that incident disease is interval-censored between irregular visits and there can be pre-existing (prevalent) disease. Because prevalent disease is not always immediately diagnosed, some disease diagnosed at later visits are actually undiagnosed prevalent disease. We consider prevalent disease as a point mass at time zero for clinical applications where there is no interest in time of prevalent disease onset. We demonstrate that the naive Kaplan-Meier cumulative risk estimator underestimates risks at early time points and overestimates later risks. We propose a general family of mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease that we call prevalence-incidence models. Parameters for parametric prevalence-incidence models, such as the logistic regression and Weibull survival (logistic-Weibull) model, are estimated by direct likelihood maximization or by EM algorithm. Non-parametric methods are proposed to calculate cumulative risks for cases without covariates. We compare naive Kaplan-Meier, logistic-Weibull, and non-parametric estimates of cumulative risk in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Kaplan-Meier provided poor estimates while the logistic-Weibull model was a close fit to the non-parametric. Our findings support our use of logistic-Weibull models to develop the risk estimates that underlie current US risk-based cervical cancer screening guidelines. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Vicek, Brian L.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic failure analysis is essential when analysis of stress-life (S-N) curves is inconclusive in determining the relative ranking of two or more materials. In 1964, L. Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Simplified algebraic equations for confidence numbers were derived based on the original work of L. Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers deviated less than one percent from those of Johnson. It is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers. These equations were applied to rotating beam fatigue tests that were conducted on three aluminum alloys at three stress levels each. These alloys were AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075. The results were analyzed and compared using ASTM Standard E739-91 and the Johnson-Weibull analysis. The ASTM method did not statistically distinguish between AL 6010 and AL 7075. Based on the Johnson-Weibull analysis confidence numbers greater than 99 percent, AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median or L(sub 50) lives.

Approximation of the breast height diameter distribution of two-cohort stands by mixture models I Parameter estimation

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis A. Roesch

2013-01-01

Study assessed the usefulness of various methods for choosing the initial values for the numerical procedures for estimating the parameters of mixture distributions and analysed variety of mixture models to approximate empirical diameter at breast height (dbh) distributions. Two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution were...

Estimating Tree Height-Diameter Models with the Bayesian Method

PubMed Central

Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the “best” model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2. PMID:24711733

Estimating tree height-diameter models with the Bayesian method.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the "best" model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2.

End-of-life flows of multiple cycle consumer products.

PubMed

Tsiliyannis, C A

2011-11-01

Explicit expressions for the end-of-life flows (EOL) of single and multiple cycle products (MCPs) are presented, including deterministic and stochastic EOL exit. The expressions are given in terms of the physical parameters (maximum lifetime, T, annual cycling frequency, f, number of cycles, N, and early discard or usage loss). EOL flows are also obtained for hi-tech products, which are rapidly renewed and thus may not attain steady state (e.g., electronic products, passenger cars). A ten-step recursive procedure for obtaining the dynamic EOL flow evolution is proposed. Applications of the EOL expressions and the ten-step procedure are given for electric household appliances, industrial machinery, tyres, vehicles and buildings, both for deterministic and stochastic EOL exit, (normal, Weibull and uniform exit distributions). The effect of the physical parameters and the stochastic characteristics on the EOL flow is investigated in the examples: it is shown that the EOL flow profile is determined primarily by the early discard dynamics; it also depends strongly on longevity and cycling frequency: higher lifetime or early discard/loss imply lower dynamic and steady state EOL flows. The stochastic exit shapes the overall EOL dynamic profile: Under symmetric EOL exit distribution, as the variance of the distribution increases (uniform to normal to deterministic) the initial EOL flow rise becomes steeper but the steady state or maximum EOL flow level is lower. The steepest EOL flow profile, featuring the highest steady state or maximum level, as well, corresponds to skew, earlier shifted EOL exit (e.g., Weibull). Since the EOL flow of returned products consists the sink of the reuse/remanufacturing cycle (sink to recycle) the results may be used in closed loop product lifecycle management operations for scheduling and sizing reverse manufacturing and for planning recycle logistics. Decoupling and quantification of both the full age EOL and of the early discard flows is useful, the latter being the target of enacted legislation aiming at increasing reuse. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Expression Profile of Extrapyramidal Symptoms Due to Antipsychotics by Data Mining of Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report (JADER) Database.

PubMed

Kose, Eiji; Uno, Kana; Hayashi, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

 Typical antipsychotics are easily expressed as adverse events such as extrapyramidal symptom (EPS). On the other hand, incidence of adverse events due to atypical antipsychotics is low. Therefore, currently, atypical antipsychotics are widely used to treat schizophrenia. However, it has been reported that there is no difference in the frequency of EPS in atypical and typical antipsychotics. This study aimed to evaluate the expression profile of EPS in atypical and typical antipsychotics treatment using the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report (JADER) database. We analyzed reports of EPS in the JADER database and calculated the reporting odds ratio (ROR) of antipsychotics potentially associated with EPS. We applied the Weibull shape parameter to time-to-event data in the JADER database. Consequently, there was little information to distinguish between the ROR of atypical and typical antipsychotics. A significant difference related to the time of onset of EPS in both antipsychotics was not recognized. However, when comparing each drug, Paliperidone, Perospirone, Blonanserin, and Aripiprazole were relatively developed as EPS in the early stage. On the other hand, Risperidone, Clozapine, Olanzapine, and Quetiapine were developed as EPS not only at an early stage but also after long-term use. In addition, this finding was suggested from the result of the cumulative incidence of EPS in each drug and of the time-to-onset analysis using Weibull distribution. These findings may contribute to future clinical practice because we revealed the expression profile of EPS in treatment with atypical and typical antipsychotics.

Bonus-Malus System with the Claim Frequency Distribution is Geometric and the Severity Distribution is Truncated Weibull

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santi, D. N.; Purnaba, I. G. P.; Mangku, I. W.

2016-01-01

Bonus-Malus system is said to be optimal if it is financially balanced for insurance companies and fair for policyholders. Previous research about Bonus-Malus system concern with the determination of the risk premium which applied to all of the severity that guaranteed by the insurance company. In fact, not all of the severity that proposed by policyholder may be covered by insurance company. When the insurance company sets a maximum bound of the severity incurred, so it is necessary to modify the model of the severity distribution into the severity bound distribution. In this paper, optimal Bonus-Malus system is compound of claim frequency component has geometric distribution and severity component has truncated Weibull distribution is discussed. The number of claims considered to follow a Poisson distribution, and the expected number λ is exponentially distributed, so the number of claims has a geometric distribution. The severity with a given parameter θ is considered to have a truncated exponential distribution is modelled using the Levy distribution, so the severity have a truncated Weibull distribution.

A Model Based on Environmental Factors for Diameter Distribution in Black Wattle in Brazil

PubMed Central

Sanquetta, Carlos Roberto; Behling, Alexandre; Dalla Corte, Ana Paula; Péllico Netto, Sylvio; Rodrigues, Aurelio Lourenço; Simon, Augusto Arlindo

2014-01-01

This article discusses the dynamics of a diameter distribution in stands of black wattle throughout its growth cycle using the Weibull probability density function. Moreover, the parameters of this distribution were related to environmental variables from meteorological data and surface soil horizon with the aim of finding a model for diameter distribution which their coefficients were related to the environmental variables. We found that the diameter distribution of the stand changes only slightly over time and that the estimators of the Weibull function are correlated with various environmental variables, with accumulated rainfall foremost among them. Thus, a model was obtained in which the estimators of the Weibull function are dependent on rainfall. Such a function can have important applications, such as in simulating growth potential in regions where historical growth data is lacking, as well as the behavior of the stand under different environmental conditions. The model can also be used to project growth in diameter, based on the rainfall affecting the forest over a certain time period. PMID:24932909

Time-dependent strength degradation of a siliconized silicon carbide determined by dynamic fatigue

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breder, K.

1995-10-01

Both fast-fracture strength and strength as a function of stressing rate at room temperature, 1,100, and 1,400 C were measured for a siliconized SiC. The fast-fracture strength increased slightly from 386 MPa at room temperature to 424 MPa at 1,100 C and then dropped to 308 MPa at 1,400 C. The Weibull moduli at room temperature and 1,100 were 10.8 and 7.8, respectively, whereas, at 1,400 C, the Weibull modulus was 2.8. The very low Weibull modulus at 1,400 C was due to the existence of two exclusive flaw populations with very different characteristic strengths. The data were reanalyzed usingmore » two exclusive flaw populations. The ceramic showed no slow crack growth (SCG), as measured by dynamic fatigue at 1,100 C, but, at 1,400 C, an SCG parameter, n, of 15.5 was measured. Fractography showed SCG zones consisting of cracks grown out from silicon-rich areas. Time-to-failure predictions at given levels of failure probabilities were performed.« less

Probability Analysis of the Wave-Slamming Pressure Values of the Horizontal Deck with Elastic Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Weiguang; Liu, Ming; Fan, Tianhui; Wang, Pengtao

2018-06-01

This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.

Expectation maximization-based likelihood inference for flexible cure rate models with Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy; Pal, Suvra

2016-08-01

Recently, a flexible cure rate survival model has been developed by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution. This model includes some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature as special cases. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and expectation maximization algorithm can be used in this case to efficiently estimate the model parameters based on right censored data. In this paper, we consider the competing cause scenario and assuming the time-to-event to follow the Weibull distribution, we derive the necessary steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for estimating the parameters of different cure rate survival models. The standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by inverting the observed information matrix. The method of inference developed here is examined by means of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data on cancer recurrence. © The Author(s) 2013.

Wind energy potential assessment to estimate performance of selected wind turbine in northern coastal region of Semarang-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premono, B. S.; Tjahjana, D. D. D. P.; Hadi, S.

2017-01-01

The aims of this paper are to investigate the characteristic of the wind speed and wind energy potential in the northern coastal region of Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. The wind data was gained from Meteorological Station of Semarang, with ten-min average time series wind data for one year period, at the height of 10 m. Weibull distribution has been used to determine the wind power density and wind energy density of the site. It was shown that the value of the two parameters, shape parameter k, and scale parameter c, were 3.37 and 5.61 m/s, respectively. The annual mean wind speed and wind speed carrying the maximum energy were 5.32 m/s and 6.45 m/s, respectively. Further, the annual energy density at the site was found at a value of 103.87 W/m2, and based on Pacific North-west Laboratory (PNL) wind power classification, at the height of 10 m, the value of annual energy density is classified into class 2. The commercial wind turbine is chosen to simulate the wind energy potential of the site. The POLARIS P25-100 is most suitable to the site. It has the capacity factor 29.79% and can produce energy 261 MWh/year.

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Relationships between Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue and measurements of loops in networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Kou, Yingxin; Li, Zhanwu; Xu, An; Chang, Yizhe

2018-07-01

The Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue (PFE) is widely used as measurement of the number of loops in networks, but what exactly the relationship between the PFE and the number of loops in networks is has not been researched yet, is it strictly monotonically increasing? And what are the relationships between the PFE and other measurements of loops in networks? Such as the average loop degree of nodes, and the distribution of loop ranks. We make researches on these questions based on samples of ER random network, NW small-world network and BA scale-free network, and the results confirm that, both the number of loops in network and the average loop degree of nodes of all samples do increase with the increase of the PFE in general trend, but neither of them are strictly monotonically increasing, so the PFE is capable to be used as a rough estimative measurement of the number of loops in networks and the average loop degree of nodes. Furthermore, we find that a majority of the loop ranks of all samples obey Weibull distribution, of which the scale parameter A and the shape parameter B have approximate power-law relationships with the PFE of the samples.

Failure statistics for commercial lithium ion batteries: A study of 24 pouch cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Stephen J.; Harris, David J.; Li, Chen

2017-02-01

There are relatively few publications that assess capacity decline in enough commercial cells to quantify cell-to-cell variation, but those that do show a surprisingly wide variability. Capacity curves cross each other often, a challenge for efforts to measure the state of health and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual cells. We analyze capacity fade statistics for 24 commercial pouch cells, providing an estimate for the time to 5% failure. Our data indicate that RUL predictions based on remaining capacity or internal resistance are accurate only once the cells have already sorted themselves into "better" and "worse" ones. Analysis of our failure data, using maximum likelihood techniques, provide uniformly good fits for a variety of definitions of failure with normal and with 2- and 3-parameter Weibull probability density functions, but we argue against using a 3-parameter Weibull function for our data. pdf fitting parameters appear to converge after about 15 failures, although business objectives should ultimately determine whether data from a given number of batteries provides sufficient confidence to end lifecycle testing. Increased efforts to make batteries with more consistent lifetimes should lead to improvements in battery cost and safety.

Development of a subway operation incident delay model using accelerated failure time approaches.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Zheng, Yang; Yan, Xuedong; Meng, Qiang

2014-12-01

This study aims to develop a subway operational incident delay model using the parametric accelerated time failure (AFT) approach. Six parametric AFT models including the log-logistic, lognormal and Weibull models, with fixed and random parameters are built based on the Hong Kong subway operation incident data from 2005 to 2012, respectively. In addition, the Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity is also considered to compare the model performance. The goodness-of-fit test results show that the log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is most suitable for estimating the subway incident delay. First, the results show that a longer subway operation incident delay is highly correlated with the following factors: power cable failure, signal cable failure, turnout communication disruption and crashes involving a casualty. Vehicle failure makes the least impact on the increment of subway operation incident delay. According to these results, several possible measures, such as the use of short-distance and wireless communication technology (e.g., Wifi and Zigbee) are suggested to shorten the delay caused by subway operation incidents. Finally, the temporal transferability test results show that the developed log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is stable over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of mechanical properties of three machinable ceramics with an experimental fluorophlogopite glass ceramic.

PubMed

Leung, Brian T W; Tsoi, James K H; Matinlinna, Jukka P; Pow, Edmond H N

2015-09-01

Fluorophlogopite glass ceramic (FGC) is a biocompatible, etchable, and millable ceramic with fluoride releasing property. However, its mechanical properties and reliability compared with other machinable ceramics remain undetermined. The purpose of this in vitro study was to compare the mechanical properties of 3 commercially available millable ceramic materials, IPS e.max CAD, Vitablocs Mark II, and Vita Enamic, with an experimental FGC. Each type of ceramic block was sectioned into beams (n=15) of standard dimensions of 2×2×15 mm. Before mechanical testing, specimens of the IPS e.max CAD group were further fired for final crystallization. Flexural strength was determined by the 3-point bend test with a universal loading machine at a cross head speed of 1 mm/min. Hardness was determined with a hardness tester with 5 Vickers hardness indentations (n=5) using a 1.96 N load and a dwell time of 15 seconds. Selected surfaces were examined by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. Data were analyzed by the 1-way ANOVA test and Weibull analysis (α=.05). Weibull parameters, including the Weibull modulus (m) as well as the characteristic strength at 63.2% (η) and 10.0% (B10), were obtained. A significant difference in flexural strength (P<.001) was found among groups, with IPS e.max CAD (341.88 ±40.25 MPa)>Vita Enamic (145.95 ±12.65 MPa)>Vitablocs Mark II (106.67 ±18.50 MPa), and FGC (117.61 ±7.62 MPa). The Weibull modulus ranged from 6.93 to 18.34, with FGC showing the highest Weibull modulus among the 4 materials. The Weibull plot revealed that IPS e.max CAD>Vita Enamic>FGC>Vitablocs Mark II for the characteristic strength at both 63.2% (η) and 10.0% (B10). Significant difference in Vickers hardness among groups (P<.001) was found with IPS e.max CAD (731.63 ±30.64 H(V))>Vitablocs Mark II (594.74 ±25.22 H(V))>Vita Enamic (372.29 ±51.23 H(V))>FGC (153.74 ±23.62 H(V)). The flexural strength and Vickers hardness of IPS e.max CAD were significantly higher than those of the 3 materials tested. The FGC's flexural strength was comparable with Vitablocs Mark II. The FGC's Weibull modulus was the highest, while its Vickers hardness was the lowest among the materials tested. Copyright © 2015 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The comparative kinetic analysis of Acetocell and Lignoboost® lignin pyrolysis: the estimation of the distributed reactivity models.

PubMed

Janković, Bojan

2011-10-01

The non-isothermal pyrolysis kinetics of Acetocell (the organosolv) and Lignoboost® (kraft) lignins, in an inert atmosphere, have been studied by thermogravimetric analysis. Using isoconversional analysis, it was concluded that the apparent activation energy for all lignins strongly depends on conversion, showing that the pyrolysis of lignins is not a single chemical process. It was identified that the pyrolysis process of Acetocell and Lignoboost® lignin takes place over three reaction steps, which was confirmed by appearance of the corresponding isokinetic relationships (IKR). It was found that major pyrolysis stage of both lignins is characterized by stilbene pyrolysis reactions, which were subsequently followed by decomposition reactions of products derived from the stilbene pyrolytic process. It was concluded that non-isothermal pyrolysis of Acetocell and Lignoboost® lignins can be best described by n-th (n>1) reaction order kinetics, using the Weibull mixture model (as distributed reactivity model) with alternating shape parameters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HPC simulations of grain-scale spallation to improve thermal spallation drilling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, S. D.; Lomov, I.; Wideman, T. W.; Potter, J.

2012-12-01

Thermal spallation drilling and related hard-rock hole opening techniques are transformative technologies with the potential to dramatically reduce the costs associated with EGS well drilling and improve the productivity of new and existing wells. In contrast to conventional drilling methods that employ mechanical means to penetrate rock, thermal spallation methods fragment rock into small pieces ("spalls") without contact via the rapid transmission of heat to the rock surface. State-of-the-art constitutive models of thermal spallation employ Weibull statistical failure theory to represent the relationship between rock heterogeneity and its propensity to produce spalls when heat is applied to the rock surface. These models have been successfully used to predict such factors as penetration rate, spall-size distribution and borehole radius from drilling jet velocity and applied heat flux. A properly calibrated Weibull model would permit design optimization of thermal spallation drilling under geothermal field conditions. However, although useful for predicting system response in a given context, Weibull models are by their nature empirically derived. In the past, the parameters used in these models were carefully determined from laboratory tests, and thus model applicability was limited by experimental scope. This becomes problematic, for example, if simulating spall production at depths relevant for geothermal energy production, or modeling thermal spallation drilling in new rock types. Nevertheless, with sufficient computational resources, Weibull models could be validated in the absence of experimental data by explicit small-scale simulations that fully resolve rock grains. This presentation will discuss how high-fidelity simulations can be used to inform Weibull models of thermal spallation, and what these simulations reveal about the processes driving spallation at the grain-scale - in particular, the role that inter-grain boundaries and micro-pores play in the onset and extent of spallation. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Preparation and Mechanical Behavior of Glass-Ceramics from Feldspathic Frits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fernanda A. N. G.; Barbato, Carla N.; França, Silvia C. A.; Silva, Ana Lúcia N.; de Andrade, Mônica C.

2017-10-01

Glass-ceramics were produced from frits with feldspar (79.09% wt/wt), alumina, sodium carbonate, potassium carbonate, borax and cerium dioxide. Feldspathic frits obtained at 1200 °C were shaped and sintered at various temperatures. Flexural strength results were analyzed by using the Weibull statistical distribution. These materials were also characterized by x-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). At 600 °C, an initial leucite formation occurred as a crystalline phase, but the amorphous phase still prevailed, with low flexural strength. On the other hand, when the temperature increased to 800 °C, flexural strength also increased to approximately 70 MPa and Weibull modulus, m = 4.4 . This behavior was explained by the formation of leucite crystals dispersed within the glassy matrix, which hinders, in a certain concentration, the propagation of cracks. However, for the sintering temperature of 1000 °C, flexural strength decreased and may be associated with higher levels of this leucite crystal, in spite of the higher reliability m = 6.6.

Statistical analysis of lithium iron sulfide status cell cycle life and failure mode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.; Battles, J.E.; Miller, W.E.

1983-08-01

A statistical model was developed for life cycle testing of electrochemical cell life cycle trials and verified experimentally. The Weibull distribution was selected to predict the end of life for a cell, based on a 20 percent loss of initial stabilized capacity or a decrease to less than 95 percent coulombic efficiency. Groups of 12 or more Li-alloy/FeS cells were cycled to determine the mean time to failure (MTTF) and also to identify the failure modes. The cells were all full size electric vehicle batteries with 150-350 A-hr capacity. The Weibull shape factors were determined and verified in prediction ofmore » the number of cell failures in two 10 cell modules. The short circuit failure in the cells with BN-felt and MgO powder separators were found to be caused by the formation of Li-Al protrusions that penetrated the BN-felt separators, and the extrusion of active material at the edge of the electrodes.« less

Effect of bending on the room-temperature tensile strengths of structural ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, M.G.

1992-01-01

Results for nearly fifty, room-temperature tensile tests conducted on two advanced, monolithic silicon nitride ceramics are evaluated for the effects of bending and application of various Weibull statistical analyses. Two specimen gripping systems (straight collet and tapered collet) were evaluated for both success in producing gage section failures and tendency to minimize bending at failure. Specimen fabrication and grinding technique consderations are briefly reviewed and related to their effects on successful tensile tests. Ultimate tensile strengths are related to the bending measured at specimen failure and the effects of the gripping system on bending are discussed. Finally, comparisons are mademore » between the use of censored and uncensored data sample sets for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the Weibull parameters from the tensile strength distributions.« less

Effect of bending on the room-temperature tensile strengths of structural ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, M.G.

1992-07-01

Results for nearly fifty, room-temperature tensile tests conducted on two advanced, monolithic silicon nitride ceramics are evaluated for the effects of bending and application of various Weibull statistical analyses. Two specimen gripping systems (straight collet and tapered collet) were evaluated for both success in producing gage section failures and tendency to minimize bending at failure. Specimen fabrication and grinding technique consderations are briefly reviewed and related to their effects on successful tensile tests. Ultimate tensile strengths are related to the bending measured at specimen failure and the effects of the gripping system on bending are discussed. Finally, comparisons are mademore » between the use of censored and uncensored data sample sets for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the Weibull parameters from the tensile strength distributions.« less

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Bonding effectiveness to different chemically pre-treated dental zirconia.

PubMed

Inokoshi, Masanao; Poitevin, André; De Munck, Jan; Minakuchi, Shunsuke; Van Meerbeek, Bart

2014-09-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different chemical pre-treatments on the bond durability to dental zirconia. Fully sintered IPS e.max ZirCAD (Ivoclar Vivadent) blocks were subjected to tribochemical silica sandblasting (CoJet, 3M ESPE). The zirconia samples were additionally pre-treated using one of four zirconia primers/adhesives (Clearfil Ceramic Primer, Kuraray Noritake; Monobond Plus, Ivoclar Vivadent; Scotchbond Universal, 3M ESPE; Z-PRIME Plus, Bisco). Finally, two identically pre-treated zirconia blocks were bonded together using composite cement (RelyX Ultimate, 3M ESPE). The specimens were trimmed at the interface to a cylindrical hourglass and stored in distilled water (7 days, 37 °C), after which they were randomly tested as is or subjected to mechanical ageing involving cyclic tensile stress (10 N, 10 Hz, 10,000 cycles). Subsequently, the micro-tensile bond strength was determined, and SEM fractographic analysis performed. Weibull analysis revealed the highest Weibull scale and shape parameters for the 'Clearfil Ceramic Primer/mechanical ageing' combination. Chemical pre-treatment of CoJet (3M ESPE) sandblasted zirconia using Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) and Monobond Plus (Ivoclar Vivadent) revealed a significantly higher bond strength than when Scotchbond Universal (3M ESPE) and Z-PRIME Plus (Bisco) were used. After ageing, Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) revealed the most stable bond durability. Combined mechanical/chemical pre-treatment, the latter with either Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) or Monobond Plus (Ivoclar Vivadent), resulted in the most durable bond to zirconia. As a standard procedure to durably bond zirconia to tooth tissue, the application of a combined 10-methacryloyloxydecyl dihydrogen phosphate/silane ceramic primer to zirconia is clinically highly recommended.

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, T. J.; Winterbottom, W. L.

1986-01-01

Work performed to develop silicon carbide materials of high strength and to form components of complex shape and high reliability is described. A beta-SiC powder and binder system was adapted to the injection molding process and procedures and process parameters developed capable of providing a sintered silicon carbide material with improved properties. The initial effort has been to characterize the baseline precursor materials (beta silicon carbide powder and boron and carbon sintering aids), develop mixing and injection molding procedures for fabricating test bars, and characterize the properties of the sintered materials. Parallel studies of various mixing, dewaxing, and sintering procedures have been carried out in order to distinguish process routes for improving material properties. A total of 276 MOR bars of the baseline material have been molded, and 122 bars have been fully processed to a sinter density of approximately 95 percent. The material has a mean MOR room temperature strength of 43.31 ksi (299 MPa), a Weibull characteristic strength of 45.8 ksi (315 MPa), and a Weibull modulus of 8.0. Mean values of the MOR strengths at 1000, 1200, and 14000 C are 41.4, 43.2, and 47.2 ksi, respectively. Strength controlling flaws in this material were found to consist of regions of high porosity and were attributed to agglomerates originating in the initial mixing procedures. The mean stress rupture lift at 1400 C of five samples tested at 172 MPa (25 ksi) stress was 62 hours and at 207 MPa (30 ksi) stress was 14 hours. New fluid mixing techniques have been developed which significantly reduce flaw size and improve the strength of the material. Initial MOR tests indicate the strength of the fluid-mixed material exceeds the baseline property by more than 33 percent.

Effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength and probability to fracture of Y-TZP zirconia ceramics for all-ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Siarampi, Eleni; Kontonasaki, Eleana; Andrikopoulos, Konstantinos S; Kantiranis, Nikolaos; Voyiatzis, George A; Zorba, Triantafillia; Paraskevopoulos, Konstantinos M; Koidis, Petros

2014-12-01

Dental zirconia restorations should present long-term clinical survival and be in service within the oral environment for many years. However, low temperature degradation could affect their mechanical properties and survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength of yttrium-stabilized (Y-TZP) zirconia ceramics for ceramic restorations. One hundred twenty bar-shaped specimens were prepared from two ceramics (ZENO Zr (WI) and IPS e.max(®) ZirCAD (IV)), and loaded until fracture according to ISO 6872. The specimens from each ceramic (nx=60) were divided in three groups (control, aged for 5h, aged for 10h). One-way ANOVA was used to assess statistically significant differences among flexural strength values (P<0.05). The variability of the flexural strength values was analyzed using the two-parameter Weibull distribution function, which was applied for the estimation of Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ0). The crystalline phase polymorphs of the materials (tetragonal, t, and monoclinic, m, zirconia) were investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, Raman spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. A slight increase of the flexural strength after 5h, and a decrease after 10h of aging, was recorded for both ceramics, however statistically significant was for the WI group (P<0.05). Both ceramics presented a t→m phase transformation, with the m-phase increasing from 4 to 5% at 5h to around 15% after 10h. The significant reduction of the flexural strength after 10h of in vitro aging, suggests high fracture probability for one of the zirconia ceramics tested. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ESTIMATION OF CRACK-ARREST TOUGHNESS TRANSITION AND NDT TEMPERATURES FROM CHARPY FORCE-DISPLACEMENT IMPACT TRACES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sokolov, Mikhail A

2010-01-01

A force-displacement trace of a Charpy impact test of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steel in the transition range has a characteristic point, the so-called force at the end of unstable crack propagation , Fa. A two-parameter Weibull probability function is used to model the distribution of the Fa in Charpy tests performed at ORNL on different RPV steels in the unirradiated and irradiated conditions. These data have a good replication at a given test temperature, thus, the statistical analysis was applicable. It is shown that when temperature is normalized to TNDT (T-TNDT) or to T100a (T-T100a), the median Famore » values of different RPV steels have a tendency to form the same shape of temperature dependence. Depending on normalization temperature, TNDT or T100a, it suggests a universal shape of the temperature dependence of Fa for different RPV steels. The best fits for these temperature dependencies are presented. These dependencies are suggested for use in estimation of NDT or T100a from randomly generated Charpy impact tests. The maximum likelihood methods are used to derive equations to estimate TNDT and T100a from randomly generated Charpy impact tests.« less

Reliability assessment of ceramic column grid array (CCGA717) interconnect packages under extreme temperatures for space applications (-185°C to +125°C)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesham, Rajeshuni

2010-02-01

Ceramic Column Grid Array packages have been increasing in use based on their advantages such as high interconnect density, very good thermal and electrical performance, compatibility with standard surface-mount packaging assembly processes, etc. CCGA packages are used in space applications such as in logics and microprocessor functions, telecommunications, flight avionics, payload electronics, etc. As these packages tend to have less solder joint strain relief than leaded packages, the reliability of CCGA packages is very important for short and long-term space missions. CCGA interconnect electronic package printed wiring boards (PWBs) of polyimide have been assembled, inspected non-destructively and subsequently subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycling to assess the reliability for future deep space, short and long-term, extreme temperature missions. In this investigation, the employed temperature range covers from -185°C to +125°C extreme thermal environments. The test hardware consists of two CCGA717 packages with each package divided into four daisy-chained sections, for a total of eight daisy chains to be monitored. The CCGA717 package is 33 mm × 33 mm with a 27×27 array of 80%/20% Pb/Sn columns on a 1.27 mm pitch. The resistance of daisy-chained, CCGA interconnects were continuously monitored as a function of thermal cycling. Electrical resistance measurements as a function of thermal cycling are reported and the tests to date have shown significant change in daisy chain resistance as a function of thermal cycling. The change in interconnect resistance becomes more noticeable with increasing number of thermal cycles. This paper will describe the experimental test results of CCGA testing under wide extreme temperatures. Standard Weibull analysis tools were used to extract the Weibull parameters to understand the CCGA failures. Optical inspection results clearly indicate that the solder joints of columns with the board and the ceramic package have failed as a function of thermal cycling. The first failure was observed at 137th thermal cycle and 63.2% failures of daisy chains have occurred at about 664 thermal cycles. The shape parameter extracted from Weibull plot was about 1.47 which indicates the failures were related to failures occurred during the flat region or useful life region of standard bath tub curve. Based on this experimental test data one can use the CCGAs for the temperature range studied for ~100 thermal cycles (ΔT = 310°C, 5oC/minute, and 15 minutes dwell) with high degree of confidence for high reliability space and other applications.

Structural Design Parameters for Germanium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jon; Rogers, Richard; Baker, Eric

2017-01-01

The fracture toughness and slow crack growth parameters of germanium supplied as single crystal beams and coarse grain disks were measured. Although germanium is anisotropic (A* 1.7), it is not as anisotropic as SiC, NiAl, or Cu. Thus the fracture toughness was similar on the 100, 110, and 111 planes, however, measurements associated with randomly oriented grinding cracks were 6 to 30 higher. Crack extension in ring loaded disks occurred on the 111 planes due to both the lower fracture energy and the higher stresses on stiff 111 planes. Germanium exhibits a Weibull scale effect, but does not exhibit significant slow crack growth in distilled water. (n 100), implying that design for quasi static loading can be performed with scaled strength statistics. Practical values for engineering design are a fracture toughness of 0.69 0.02 MPam (megapascals per square root meter) and a Weibull modulus of m 6 2. For well ground and reasonable handled coupons, average fracture strength should be greater than 40 megapascals. Aggregate, polycrystalline elastic constants are Epoly 131 gigapascals, vpoly 0.22.

Recalcitrant vulnerability curves: methods of analysis and the concept of fibre bridges for enhanced cavitation resistance.

PubMed

Cai, Jing; Li, Shan; Zhang, Haixin; Zhang, Shuoxin; Tyree, Melvin T

2014-01-01

Vulnerability curves (VCs) generally can be fitted to the Weibull equation; however, a growing number of VCs appear to be recalcitrant, that is, deviate from a Weibull but seem to fit dual Weibull curves. We hypothesize that dual Weibull curves in Hippophae rhamnoides L. are due to different vessel diameter classes, inter-vessel hydraulic connections or vessels versus fibre tracheids. We used dye staining techniques, hydraulic measurements and quantitative anatomy measurements to test these hypotheses. The fibres contribute 1.3% of the total stem conductivity, which eliminates the hypothesis that fibre tracheids account for the second Weibull curve. Nevertheless, the staining pattern of vessels and fibre tracheids suggested that fibres might function as a hydraulic bridge between adjacent vessels. We also argue that fibre bridges are safer than vessel-to-vessel pits and put forward the concept as a new paradigm. Hence, we tentatively propose that the first Weibull curve may be accounted by vessels connected to each other directly by pit fields, while the second Weibull curve is associated with vessels that are connected almost exclusively by fibre bridges. Further research is needed to test the concept of fibre bridge safety in species that have recalcitrant or normal Weibull curves. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Revised Similarity Law in Botanic Describes the Genesis of the Vulnerability Curve Shape in Vascular Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mrad, A.; Domec, J. C.; Huang, C. W.; Katul, G. G.

2017-12-01

Xylem tissues are specialized in offering the least possible resistance to water flow. However, this is not guaranteed when ascending sap reaches large negative pressures during periods of water stress when embolism within the xylem occurs, an inevitable step toward potential drought-induced mortality. Ongoing research into changing forest patterns and plant survival due to droughts rarely dispute the significance of Vulnerability Curves (VCs), plots that feature loss in relative conductance with declining liquid pressure (ψ). While Earth-Systems models routinely employ various VC functions, the theoretical underpinnings describing their shape remains lacking. VCs are the outcome of microscopic phenomena describing embolism formation, bubble-scale xylem properties allowing embolism spread, and hydraulic processes that dictate the water potential along the flow path. The work here explores how the upscaled version of these gives rise to popular mathematical shapes used to describe VC measurements: The Logistic and Weibull exceedance equations. Each of these two captures a distinct type of embolism spread: The Logistic VC arises when the probability that embolized vessels interact with intact ones describe embolism spread as water pressure decreases (labeled as a similarity law in botanic [1]). The Weibull VC arises when the aforementioned description includes the effects of ψ explicitly. Variability in xylem properties along the flow path is explored analytically using novel approaches borrowed from `super-statistics' and numerical simulations. The numerical simulations intend to single out which xylem network property is significant in describing the VC shape. The model results corroborate previous research (experimental and 3-dimensional high-resolution simulations) on the effect of vessel size and network topology. It is shown that (i) initial embolism locations alter air-seeding pressure and VC slope; (ii) redundancy and size variations decrease bubble propagation probability with decreasing ψ; and (iii) varying network properties spatially along the flow path delays total loss of conductance. The implications of these findings to linking VC shape to plant traits and the on-going debate about `r' vs `s' shape VCs are highlighted.

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

This is the third annual technical report for the program entitled, Improved Silicon Carbide for Advanced Heat Engines, for the period February 16, 1987 to February 15, 1988. The objective of the original program was the development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines. Injection molding is the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals of the revised program are to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in 4-point loading. Two tasks are discussed: Task 1 which involves materials and process improvements, and Task 2 which is a MOR bar matrix to improve strength and reliability. Many statistically designed experiments were completed under task 1 which improved the composition of the batches, the mixing of the powders, the sinter and anneal cycles. The best results were obtained by an attritor mixing process which yielded strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and an individual Weibull modulus of 16.8 for a 9-sample group. Strengths measured at 1200 and 1400 C were equal to the room temperature strength. Annealing of machined test bars significantly improved the strength. Molding yields were measured and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. The second iteration of the Task 2 matrix experiment is described.

Flexural strength and reliability of monolithic and trilayer ceramic structures obtained by the CAD-on technique.

PubMed

Basso, G R; Moraes, R R; Borba, M; Griggs, J A; Della Bona, A

2015-12-01

To evaluate the flexural strength, Weibull modulus, fracture toughness, and failure behavior of ceramic structures obtained by the CAD-on technique, testing the null hypothesis that trilayer structures show similar properties to monolithic structures. Bar-shaped (1.8mm×4mm×16mm) monolithic specimens of zirconia (IPS e.max ZirCAD - Ivoclar Vivadent) and trilayer specimens of zirconia/fusion ceramic/lithium dissilicate (IPS e.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max CAD Crystall./Connect/IPS e.max CAD, Ivoclar Vivadent) were fabricated (n=30). Specimens were tested in flexure in 37°C deionized water using a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 0.5mm/min. Failure loads were recorded, and the flexural strength values were calculated. Fractography principles were used to examine the fracture surfaces under optical and scanning electron microscopy. Data were statistically analyzed using Student's t-test and Weibull statistics (α=0.05). Monolithic and trilayer specimens showed similar mean flexural strengths, characteristic strengths, and Weibull moduli. Trilayer structures showed greater mean critical flaw and fracture toughness values than monolithic specimens (p<0.001). Most critical flaws in the trilayer groups were located on the Y-TZP surface subjected to tension and propagated catastrophically. Trilayer structures showed no flaw deflection at the interface. Considering the CAD-on technique, the trilayer structures showed greater fracture toughness than the monolithic zirconia specimens. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A log-Weibull spatial scan statistic for time to event data.

PubMed

Usman, Iram; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

2018-06-13

Spatial scan statistics have been used for the identification of geographic clusters of elevated numbers of cases of a condition such as disease outbreaks. These statistics accompanied by the appropriate distribution can also identify geographic areas with either longer or shorter time to events. Other authors have proposed the spatial scan statistics based on the exponential and Weibull distributions. We propose the log-Weibull as an alternative distribution for the spatial scan statistic for time to events data and compare and contrast the log-Weibull and Weibull distributions through simulation studies. The effect of type I differential censoring and power have been investigated through simulated data. Methods are also illustrated on time to specialist visit data for discharged patients presenting to emergency departments for atrial fibrillation and flutter in Alberta during 2010-2011. We found northern regions of Alberta had longer times to specialist visit than other areas. We proposed the spatial scan statistic for the log-Weibull distribution as a new approach for detecting spatial clusters for time to event data. The simulation studies suggest that the test performs well for log-Weibull data.

The Weibull probabilities analysis on the single kenaf fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, I.; Sarip, S.; Bani, N. A.; Ibrahim, M. H.; Hassan, M. Z.

2018-05-01

Kenaf fiber has a great potential to be replaced with the synthetic composite due to their advantages such as environmentally friendly and outstanding performance. However, the main issue of this natural fiber that to be used in structural composite is inconsistency of their mechanical properties. Here, the influence of the gage length on the mechanical properties of single kenaf fiber was evaluated. This fiber was tested using the Universal testing machine at a loading rate of 1mm per min following ASTM D3822 standard. In this study, the different length of treated fiber including 20, 30 and 40mm were being tested. Following, Weibull probabilities analysis was used to characterize the tensile strength and Young modulus of kenaf fiber. The predicted average tensile strength from this approach is in good agreement with experimental results for the obtained parameter.

ZERODUR: bending strength data for etched surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter; Leys, Antoine; Carré, Antoine; Kerz, Franca; Westerhoff, Thomas

2014-07-01

In a continuous effort since 2007 a considerable amount of new data and information has been gathered on the bending strength of the extremely low thermal expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR®. By fitting a three parameter Weibull distribution to the data it could be shown that for homogenously ground surfaces minimum breakage stresses exist lying much higher than the previously applied design limits. In order to achieve even higher allowable stress values diamond grain ground surfaces have been acid etched, a procedure widely accepted as strength increasing measure. If surfaces are etched taking off layers with thickness which are comparable to the maximum micro crack depth of the preceding grinding process they also show statistical distributions compatible with a three parameter Weibull distribution. SCHOTT has performed additional measurement series with etch solutions with variable composition testing the applicability of this distribution and the possibility to achieve further increase of the minimum breakage stress. For long term loading applications strength change with time and environmental media are important. The parameter needed for prediction calculations which is combining these influences is the stress corrosion constant. Results from the past differ significantly from each other. On the basis of new investigations better information will be provided for choosing the best value for the given application conditions.

Does artificial aging affect mechanical properties of CAD/CAM composite materials.

PubMed

Egilmez, Ferhan; Ergun, Gulfem; Cekic-Nagas, Isil; Vallittu, Pekka K; Lassila, Lippo V J

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the flexural strength and Weibull characteristics of different CAD/CAM materials after different in vitro aging conditions. The specimens were randomly assigned to one of the six in vitro aging conditions: (1) water storage (37°C, 3 weeks), (2) boiling water (24h), (3) hydrochloric acid exposure (pH: 1.2, 24h), (4) autoclave treatment (134°C, 200kPa, 12h), (5) thermal cycling (5000 times, 5-55°C), (6) cyclic loading (100N, 50,000 cycles). No treatment was applied to the specimens in control group. Three-point bending test was used for the calculation of flexural strength. The reliability of the strength was assessed by Weibull distribution. Surface roughness and topography was examined by coherence scanning interferometry. Evaluated parameters were compared using the Kruskall-Wallis or Mann-Whitney U test. Water storage, autoclave treatment and thermal cycling significantly decreased the flexural strength of all materials (p<0.05), whereas HCl exposure or cyclic loading did not affect the properties (p>0.05). Weibull moduli of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate were similar with control. Vita Enamic ® exhibited similar Weibull moduli in all aging groups except the HCl treated group (p>0.05). R a values of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate were in the range of 0.053-0.088μm in the aged groups. However R a results of Vita Enamic ® were larger than 0.2μm. Flexural strength of newly developed restorative CAD/CAM materials was significantly decreased by artificial aging. Cyclic loading or HCl exposure does not affect to the flexural strength and structural reliability of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate. Copyright © 2017 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

Observation of radiation damage induced by single-ion hits at the heavy ion microbeam system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamiya, Tomihiro; Sakai, Takuro; Hirao, Toshio; Oikawa, Masakazu

2001-07-01

A single-ion hit system combined with the JAERI heavy ion microbeam system can be applied to observe individual phenomena induced by interactions between high-energy ions and a semiconductor device using a technique to measure the pulse height of transient current (TC) signals. The reduction of the TC pulse height for a Si PIN photodiode was measured under irradiation of 15 MeV Ni ions onto various micron-sized areas in the diode. The data containing damage effect by these irradiations were analyzed with least-square fitting using a Weibull distribution function. Changes of the scale and the shape parameters as functions of the width of irradiation areas brought us an assumption that a charge collection in a diode has a micron level lateral extent larger than a spatial resolution of the microbeam at 1 μm. Numerical simulations for these measurements were made with a simplified two-dimensional model based on this assumption using a Monte Carlo method. Calculated data reproducing the pulse-height reductions by single-ion irradiations were analyzed using the same function as that for the measurement. The result of this analysis, which shows the same tendency in change of parameters as that by measurements, seems to support our assumption.

Bayesian estimation of dose thresholds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groer, P. G.; Carnes, B. A.

2003-01-01

An example is described of Bayesian estimation of radiation absorbed dose thresholds (subsequently simply referred to as dose thresholds) using a specific parametric model applied to a data set on mice exposed to 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons. A Weibull based relative risk model with a dose threshold parameter was used to analyse, as an example, lung cancer mortality and determine the posterior density for the threshold dose after single exposures to 60Co gamma rays or fission neutrons from the JANUS reactor at Argonne National Laboratory. The data consisted of survival, censoring times and cause of death information for male B6CF1 unexposed and exposed mice. The 60Co gamma whole-body doses for the two exposed groups were 0.86 and 1.37 Gy. The neutron whole-body doses were 0.19 and 0.38 Gy. Marginal posterior densities for the dose thresholds for neutron and gamma radiation were calculated with numerical integration and found to have quite different shapes. The density of the threshold for 60Co is unimodal with a mode at about 0.50 Gy. The threshold density for fission neutrons declines monotonically from a maximum value at zero with increasing doses. The posterior densities for all other parameters were similar for the two radiation types.

Reliability of High-Voltage Tantalum Capacitors. Parts 3 and 4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Weibull grading test is a powerful technique that allows selection and reliability rating of solid tantalum capacitors for military and space applications. However, inaccuracies in the existing method and non-adequate acceleration factors can result in significant, up to three orders of magnitude, errors in the calculated failure rate of capacitors. This paper analyzes deficiencies of the existing technique and recommends more accurate method of calculations. A physical model presenting failures of tantalum capacitors as time-dependent-dielectric-breakdown is used to determine voltage and temperature acceleration factors and select adequate Weibull grading test conditions. This model is verified by highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperature and voltage conditions for three types of solid chip tantalum capacitors. It is shown that parameters of the model and acceleration factors can be calculated using a general log-linear relationship for the characteristic life with two stress levels.

The inverse power law model for the lifetime of a mylar-polyurethane laminated dc hv insulating structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalkanis, G.; Rosso, E.

1989-09-01

Results of an accelerated test on the lifetime of a mylar-polyurethane laminated dc high voltage insulating structure are reported. This structure consists of mylar ribbons placed side by side in a number of layers, staggered and glued together with a polyurethane adhesive. The lifetime until breakdown as a function of extremely high values of voltage stress is measured and represented by a mathematical model, the inverse power law model with a 2-parameter Weibull lifetime distribution. The statistical treatment of the data — either by graphical or by analytical methods — allowed us to estimate the lifetime distribution and confidence bounds for any required normal voltage stress. The laminated structure under consideration is, according to the analysis, a very reliable dc hv insulating material, with a very good life performance according to the inverse power law model, and with an exponent of voltage stress equal to 6. A large insulator of cylindrical shape with this kind of laminated structure can be constructed by winding helically a mylar ribbon in a number of layers.

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2003-01-01

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Hierarchical statistical modeling of xylem vulnerability to cavitation.

PubMed

Ogle, Kiona; Barber, Jarrett J; Willson, Cynthia; Thompson, Brenda

2009-01-01

Cavitation of xylem elements diminishes the water transport capacity of plants, and quantifying xylem vulnerability to cavitation is important to understanding plant function. Current approaches to analyzing hydraulic conductivity (K) data to infer vulnerability to cavitation suffer from problems such as the use of potentially unrealistic vulnerability curves, difficulty interpreting parameters in these curves, a statistical framework that ignores sampling design, and an overly simplistic view of uncertainty. This study illustrates how two common curves (exponential-sigmoid and Weibull) can be reparameterized in terms of meaningful parameters: maximum conductivity (k(sat)), water potential (-P) at which percentage loss of conductivity (PLC) =X% (P(X)), and the slope of the PLC curve at P(X) (S(X)), a 'sensitivity' index. We provide a hierarchical Bayesian method for fitting the reparameterized curves to K(H) data. We illustrate the method using data for roots and stems of two populations of Juniperus scopulorum and test for differences in k(sat), P(X), and S(X) between different groups. Two important results emerge from this study. First, the Weibull model is preferred because it produces biologically realistic estimates of PLC near P = 0 MPa. Second, stochastic embolisms contribute an important source of uncertainty that should be included in such analyses.

Investigations of subcritical crack propagation of the Empress 2 all-ceramic system.

PubMed

Mitov, Gergo; Lohbauer, Ulrich; Rabbo, Mohammad Abed; Petschelt, Anselm; Pospiech, Peter

2008-02-01

The mechanical properties and slow crack propapagation of the all-porcelain system Empress 2 (Ivoclar Vivadent, Schaan, Liechtenstein) with its framework compound Empress 2 and the veneering compounds "Empress 2 and Eris were examined. For all materials, the fracture strength, Weibull parameter and elastic moduli were experimentally determined in a four-point-bending test. For the components of the Empress 2 system, the fracture toughness K(IC) was determined, and the crack propagation parameters n and A were determined in a dynamic fatigue method. Using these data, life data analysis was performed and lifetime diagrams were produced. The development of strength under static fatigue conditions was calculated for a period of 5 years. The newly developed veneering ceramic Eris showed a higher fracture strength (sigma(0)=66.1 MPa) at a failure probability of P(F)=63.2%, and crack growth parameters (n=12.9) compared to the veneering ceramic Empress 2 (sigma(0)=60.3 MPa). For Empress 2 veneer the crack propagation parameter n could only be estimated (n=9.5). This is reflected in the prognosis of long-term resistance presented in the SPT diagrams. For all materials investigated, the Weibull parameter m values (Empress 2 framework m=4.6; Empress 2 veneer m=7.9; Eris m=6.9) were much lower than the minimum demanded by the literature (m=15). The initial fracture strength value alone is not sufficient to characterize the mechanical resistance of ceramic materials, since their stressability is time-dependent. Knowledge about the crack propagation parameters n and A are of great importance when preclinically predicting the clinical suitability of dental ceramic materials. The use of SPT diagrams for lifetime calculation of ceramic materials is a valuable method for comparing different ceramics.

A Weibull distribution accrual failure detector for cloud computing.

PubMed

Liu, Jiaxi; Wu, Zhibo; Wu, Jin; Dong, Jian; Zhao, Yao; Wen, Dongxin

2017-01-01

Failure detectors are used to build high availability distributed systems as the fundamental component. To meet the requirement of a complicated large-scale distributed system, accrual failure detectors that can adapt to multiple applications have been studied extensively. However, several implementations of accrual failure detectors do not adapt well to the cloud service environment. To solve this problem, a new accrual failure detector based on Weibull Distribution, called the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector, has been proposed specifically for cloud computing. It can adapt to the dynamic and unexpected network conditions in cloud computing. The performance of the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector is evaluated and compared based on public classical experiment data and cloud computing experiment data. The results show that the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector has better performance in terms of speed and accuracy in unstable scenarios, especially in cloud computing.

Application of Weibull analysis to SSME hardware

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gray, L. A. B.

1986-01-01

Generally, it has been documented that the wearing of engine parts forms a failure distribution which can be approximated by a function developed by Weibull. The purpose here is to examine to what extent the Weibull distribution approximates failure data for designated engine parts of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The current testing certification requirements will be examined in order to establish confidence levels. An examination of the failure history of SSME parts/assemblies (turbine blades, main combustion chamber, or high pressure fuel pump first stage impellers) which are limited in usage by time or starts will be done by using updated Weibull techniques. Efforts will be made by the investigator to predict failure trends by using Weibull techniques for SSME parts (turbine temperature sensors, chamber pressure transducers, actuators, and controllers) which are not severely limited by time or starts.

Evolution of a detailed physiological model to simulate the gastrointestinal transit and absorption process in humans, part II: extension to describe performance of solid dosage forms.

PubMed

Thelen, Kirstin; Coboeken, Katrin; Willmann, Stefan; Dressman, Jennifer B; Lippert, Jörg

2012-03-01

The physiological absorption model presented in part I of this work is now extended to account for dosage-form-dependent gastrointestinal (GI) transit as well as disintegration and dissolution processes of various immediate-release and modified-release dosage forms. Empirical functions of the Weibull type were fitted to experimental in vitro dissolution profiles of solid dosage forms for eight test compounds (aciclovir, caffeine, cimetidine, diclofenac, furosemide, paracetamol, phenobarbital, and theophylline). The Weibull functions were then implemented into the model to predict mean plasma concentration-time profiles of the various dosage forms. On the basis of these dissolution functions, pharmacokinetics (PK) of six model drugs was predicted well. In the case of diclofenac, deviations between predicted and observed plasma concentrations were attributable to the large variability in gastric emptying time of the enteric-coated tablets. Likewise, oral PK of furosemide was found to be predominantly governed by the gastric emptying patterns. It is concluded that the revised model for GI transit and absorption was successfully integrated with dissolution functions of the Weibull type, enabling prediction of in vivo PK profiles from in vitro dissolution data. It facilitates a comparative analysis of the parameters contributing to oral drug absorption and is thus a powerful tool for formulation design. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian Weibull tree models for survival analysis of clinico-genomic data

PubMed Central

Clarke, Jennifer; West, Mike

2008-01-01

An important goal of research involving gene expression data for outcome prediction is to establish the ability of genomic data to define clinically relevant risk factors. Recent studies have demonstrated that microarray data can successfully cluster patients into low- and high-risk categories. However, the need exists for models which examine how genomic predictors interact with existing clinical factors and provide personalized outcome predictions. We have developed clinico-genomic tree models for survival outcomes which use recursive partitioning to subdivide the current data set into homogeneous subgroups of patients, each with a specific Weibull survival distribution. These trees can provide personalized predictive distributions of the probability of survival for individuals of interest. Our strategy is to fit multiple models; within each model we adopt a prior on the Weibull scale parameter and update this prior via Empirical Bayes whenever the sample is split at a given node. The decision to split is based on a Bayes factor criterion. The resulting trees are weighted according to their relative likelihood values and predictions are made by averaging over models. In a pilot study of survival in advanced stage ovarian cancer we demonstrate that clinical and genomic data are complementary sources of information relevant to survival, and we use the exploratory nature of the trees to identify potential genomic biomarkers worthy of further study. PMID:18618012

A Modified Cramer-von Mises and Anderson-Darling Test for the Weibull Distribution with Unknown Location and Scale Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

preventing the generation of 16 6 negative location estimators. Because of the invariant pro- perty of the EDF statistics, this transformation will...likelihood. If the parameter estimation method developed by Harter and Moore is used, care must be taken to prevent the location estimators from being...vs A 2 Critical Values, Level-.Ol, n-30 128 , 0 6N m m • w - APPENDIX E Computer Prgrams 129 Program to Calculate the Cramer-von Mises Critical Values

A Weibull distribution accrual failure detector for cloud computing

PubMed Central

Wu, Zhibo; Wu, Jin; Zhao, Yao; Wen, Dongxin

2017-01-01

Failure detectors are used to build high availability distributed systems as the fundamental component. To meet the requirement of a complicated large-scale distributed system, accrual failure detectors that can adapt to multiple applications have been studied extensively. However, several implementations of accrual failure detectors do not adapt well to the cloud service environment. To solve this problem, a new accrual failure detector based on Weibull Distribution, called the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector, has been proposed specifically for cloud computing. It can adapt to the dynamic and unexpected network conditions in cloud computing. The performance of the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector is evaluated and compared based on public classical experiment data and cloud computing experiment data. The results show that the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector has better performance in terms of speed and accuracy in unstable scenarios, especially in cloud computing. PMID:28278229

Height extrapolation of wind data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mikhail, A.S.

1982-11-01

Hourly average data for a period of 1 year from three tall meteorological towers - the Erie tower in Colorado, the Goodnoe Hills tower in Washington and the WKY-TV tower in Oklahoma - were used to analyze the wind shear exponent variabiilty with various parameters such as thermal stability, anemometer level wind speed, projection height and surface roughness. Different proposed models for prediction of height variability of short-term average wind speeds were discussed. Other models that predict the height dependence of Weilbull distribution parameters were tested. The observed power law exponent for all three towers showed strong dependence on themore » anemometer level wind speed and stability (nighttime and daytime). It also exhibited a high degree of dependence on extrapolation height with respect to anemometer height. These dependences became less severe as the anemometer level wind speeds were increased due to the turbulent mixing of the atmospheric boundary layer. The three models used for Weibull distribution parameter extrapolation were he velocity-dependent power law model (Justus), the velocity, surface roughness, and height-dependent model (Mikhail) and the velocity and surface roughness-dependent model (NASA). The models projected the scale parameter C fairly accurately for the Goodnoe Hills and WKY-TV towers and were less accurate for the Erie tower. However, all models overestimated the C value. The maximum error for the Mikhail model was less than 2% for Goodnoe Hills, 6% for WKY-TV and 28% for Erie. The error associated with the prediction of the shape factor (K) was similar for the NASA, Mikhail and Justus models. It ranged from 20 to 25%. The effect of the misestimation of hub-height distribution parameters (C and K) on average power output is briefly discussed.« less

Fisher information for two gamma frailty bivariate Weibull models.

PubMed

Bjarnason, H; Hougaard, P

2000-03-01

The asymptotic properties of frailty models for multivariate survival data are not well understood. To study this aspect, the Fisher information is derived in the standard bivariate gamma frailty model, where the survival distribution is of Weibull form conditional on the frailty. For comparison, the Fisher information is also derived in the bivariate gamma frailty model, where the marginal distribution is of Weibull form.

Modeling the pressure inactivation of Escherichia coli and Salmonella typhimurium in sapote mamey ( Pouteria sapota (Jacq.) H.E. Moore & Stearn) pulp.

PubMed

Saucedo-Reyes, Daniela; Carrillo-Salazar, José A; Román-Padilla, Lizbeth; Saucedo-Veloz, Crescenciano; Reyes-Santamaría, María I; Ramírez-Gilly, Mariana; Tecante, Alberto

2018-03-01

High hydrostatic pressure inactivation kinetics of Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 and Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium ATCC 14028 ( S. typhimurium) in a low acid mamey pulp at four pressure levels (300, 350, 400, and 450 MPa), different exposure times (0-8 min), and temperature of 25 ± 2℃ were obtained. Survival curves showed deviations from linearity in the form of a tail (upward concavity). The primary models tested were the Weibull model, the modified Gompertz equation, and the biphasic model. The Weibull model gave the best goodness of fit ( R 2 adj  > 0.956, root mean square error < 0.290) in the modeling and the lowest Akaike information criterion value. Exponential-logistic and exponential decay models, and Bigelow-type and an empirical models for b'( P) and n( P) parameters, respectively, were tested as alternative secondary models. The process validation considered the two- and one-step nonlinear regressions for making predictions of the survival fraction; both regression types provided an adequate goodness of fit and the one-step nonlinear regression clearly reduced fitting errors. The best candidate model according to the Akaike theory information, with better accuracy and more reliable predictions was the Weibull model integrated by the exponential-logistic and exponential decay secondary models as a function of time and pressure (two-step procedure) or incorporated as one equation (one-step procedure). Both mathematical expressions were used to determine the t d parameter, where the desired reductions ( 5D) (considering d = 5 ( t 5 ) as the criterion of 5 Log 10 reduction (5 D)) in both microorganisms are attainable at 400 MPa for 5.487 ± 0.488 or 5.950 ± 0.329 min, respectively, for the one- or two-step nonlinear procedure.

Modeling Mass and Thermal Transport in Thin Porous Media of PEM Fuel Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, Vinaykumar

Water transport in the Porous Transport Layer (PTL) plays an important role in the efficient operation of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFC). Excessive water content as well as dry operating conditions are unfavorable for efficient and reliable operation of the fuel cell. The effect of thermal conductivity and porosity on water management are investigated by simulating two-phase flow in the PTL of the fuel cell using a network model. In the model, the PTL consists of a pore-phase and a solid-phase. Different models of the PTLs are generated using independent Weibull distributions for the pore-phase and the solid-phase. The specific arrangement of the pores and solid elements is varied to obtain different PTL realizations for the same Weibull parameters. The properties of PTL are varied by changing the porosity and thermal conductivity. The parameters affecting operating conditions include the temperature, relative humidity in the flow channel and voltage and current density. In addition, a novel high-speed capable Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) microscope was built based on Kretschmann's configuration utilizing a collimated Kohler illumination. The SPR allows thin film characterization in a thickness of approximately 0-200nm by measuring the changes in the refractive index. Various independent experiments were run to measure film thickness during droplet coalescence during condensation.

A Weibull characterization for tensile fracture of multicomponent brittle fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrows, R. G.

1977-01-01

A statistical characterization for multicomponent brittle fibers in presented. The method, which is an extension of usual Weibull distribution procedures, statistically considers the components making up a fiber (e.g., substrate, sheath, and surface) as separate entities and taken together as in a fiber. Tensile data for silicon carbide fiber and for an experimental carbon-boron alloy fiber are evaluated in terms of the proposed multicomponent Weibull characterization.

Comparative Fatigue Lives of Rubber and PVC Wiper Cylindrical Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Savage, Michael

2002-01-01

Three coating materials for rotating cylindrical-coated wiping rollers were fatigue tested in 2 Intaglio printing presses. The coatings were a hard, cross-linked, plasticized PVC thermoset (P-series); a plasticized PVC (A-series); and a hard, nitryl rubber (R-series). Both 2- and 3-parameter Weibull analyses as well as a cost-benefit analysis were performed. The mean value of life for the R-series coating is 24 and 9 times longer than the P- and A-series coatings, respectively. Both the cost and replacement rate for the R-series coating was significantly less than those for the P- and A-series coatings. At a very high probability of survival the R-series coating is approximately 2 and 6 times the lives of the P- and A-series, respectively, before the first failure occurs. Where all coatings are run to failure, using the mean (life) time between removal (MTBR) for each coating to calculate the number of replacements and costs provides qualitatively similar results to those using a Weibull analysis.

Combined pressure-thermal inactivation kinetics of Bacillus amyloliquefaciens spores in egg patty mince.

PubMed

Rajan, S; Ahn, J; Balasubramaniam, V M; Yousef, A E

2006-04-01

Bacillus amyloliquefaciens is a potential surrogate for Clostridium botulinum in validation studies involving bacterial spore inactivation by pressure-assisted thermal processing. Spores of B. amyloliquefaciens Fad 82 were inoculated into egg patty mince (approximately 1.4 x 10(8) spores per g), and the product was treated with combinations of pressure (0.1 to 700 MPa) and heat (95 to 121 degrees C) in a custom-made high-pressure kinetic tester. The values for the inactivation kinetic parameter (D), temperature coefficient (zT), and pressure coefficient (zP) were determined with a linear model. Inactivation parameters from the nonlinear Weibull model also were estimated. An increase in process pressure decreased the D-value at 95, 105, and 110 degrees C; however, at 121 degrees C the contribution of pressure to spore lethality was less pronounced. The zP-value increased from 170 MPa at 95 degrees C to 332 MPa at 121 degrees C, suggesting that B. amyloliquefaciens spores became less sensitive to pressure changes at higher temperatures. Similarly, the zT-value increased from 8.2 degrees C at 0.1 MPa to 26.8 degrees C at 700 MPa, indicating that at elevated pressures, the spores were less sensitive to changes in temperature. The nonlinear Weibull model parameter b increased with increasing pressure or temperature and was inversely related to the D-value. Pressure-assisted thermal processing is a potential alternative to thermal processing for producing shelf-stable egg products.

Zirconia changes after grinding and regeneration firing.

PubMed

Hatanaka, Gabriel R; Polli, Gabriela S; Fais, Laiza M G; Reis, José Maurício Dos S N; Pinelli, Lígia A P

2017-07-01

Despite improvements in computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD-CAM) systems, grinding during either laboratory procedures or clinical adjustments is often needed to modify the shape of 3 mol(%) yttria-tetragonal zirconia polycrystal (3Y-TZP) restorations. However, the best way to achieve adjustment is unclear. The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the microstructural and crystallographic phase changes, flexural strength, and Weibull modulus of a 3Y-TZP zirconia after grinding with or without water cooling and regeneration firing. Ninety-six bar-shaped specimens were obtained and divided as follows: as-sintered, control; as-sintered with regeneration firing; grinding without water cooling; grinding and regeneration firing with water cooling; and grinding and regeneration firing. Grinding (0.3 mm) was performed with a 150-μm diamond rotary instrument in a high-speed handpiece. For regeneration firing, the specimens were annealed at 1000°C for 30 minutes. The crystalline phases were evaluated by using x-ray powder diffraction. A 4-point bending test was conducted (10 kN; 0.5 mm/min). The Weibull modulus was used to analyze strength reliability. The microstructure was analyzed by scanning electron microscopy. Data from the flexural strength test were evaluated using the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn tests (α=.05). Tetragonal-to-monoclinic phase transformation was identified in the ground specimens; R regeneration firing groups showed only the tetragonal phase. The median flexural strength of as-sintered specimens was 642.0; 699.3 MPa for as-sintered specimens with regeneration firing; 770.1 MPa for grinding and water-cooled specimens; 727.3 MPa for specimens produced using water-cooled grinding and regeneration firing; 859.9 MPa for those produced by grinding; and 764.6 for those produced by grinding and regeneration firing; with statistically higher values for the ground groups. The regenerative firing did not affect the flexural strength. Weibull modulus values ranged from 5.3 to 12.4. The SEM images showed semicircular cracks after grinding. Adjustments by grinding in 3Y-TZP frameworks should be performed with water cooling, and regeneration firing should be undertaken to obtain a more reliable material. Copyright © 2016 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Particle shape analysis of volcanic clast samples with the Matlab tool MORPHEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charpentier, Isabelle; Sarocchi, Damiano; Rodriguez Sedano, Luis Angel

2013-02-01

This paper presents a modular Matlab tool, namely MORPHEO, devoted to the study of particle morphology by Fourier analysis. A benchmark made of four sample images with different features (digitized coins, a pebble chart, gears, digitized volcanic clasts) is then proposed to assess the abilities of the software. Attention is brought to the Weibull distribution introduced to enhance fine variations of particle morphology. Finally, as an example, samples pertaining to a lahar deposit located in La Lumbre ravine (Colima Volcano, Mexico) are analysed. MORPHEO and the benchmark are freely available for research purposes.

Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.

2008-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.

Reliability Based Design for a Raked Wing Tip of an Airframe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Coroneos, Rula M.

2011-01-01

A reliability-based optimization methodology has been developed to design the raked wing tip of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of composite and metallic materials. Design is formulated for an accepted level of risk or reliability. The design variables, weight and the constraints became functions of reliability. Uncertainties in the load, strength and the material properties, as well as the design variables, were modeled as random parameters with specified distributions, like normal, Weibull or Gumbel functions. The objective function and constraint, or a failure mode, became derived functions of the risk-level. Solution to the problem produced the optimum design with weight, variables and constraints as a function of the risk-level. Optimum weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to a 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. Under some assumptions, this design would be quite close to the deterministic optimum solution. The weight increased when reliability exceeded 50 percent, and decreased when the reliability was compromised. A design could be selected depending on the level of risk acceptable to a situation. The optimization process achieved up to a 20-percent reduction in weight over traditional design.

Effect of environment on fracture toughness of 96 wt pct alumina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Tikare, Veena; Salem, Jonathan A.

1993-01-01

An effort is made to deepen understanding of environmental effects on the fracture toughness of an alumina composition that contains a residual glassy phase, by ascertaining the fracture toughness under atmospheric conditions in such varied environments as air distilled water, silicone oil, and liquid nitrogen. Fracture toughness was determined via the single-edge-precracked beam technique. Weibull strength parameters are compared for polished specimens tested both in air and silicone environments.

A new statistical time-dependent model of earthquake occurrence: failure processes driven by a self-correcting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotondi, Renata; Varini, Elisa

2016-04-01

The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing hazard functions) are more appropriate. Short-term models mainly fit earthquake clusters due to the tendency of an earthquake to trigger other earthquakes; in this case, self-exciting point processes with non-increasing hazard are especially suitable. In order to provide a unified framework for analyzing earthquake catalogs, Schoenberg and Bolt proposed the SELC (Short-term Exciting Long-term Correcting) model (BSSA, 2000) and Varini employed a state-space model for estimating the different phases of a seismic cycle (PhD Thesis, 2005). Both attempts are combinations of long- and short-term models, but results are not completely satisfactory, due to the different scales at which these models appear to operate. In this study, we split a seismic sequence in two groups: the leader events, whose magnitude exceeds a threshold magnitude, and the remaining ones considered as subordinate events. The leader events are assumed to follow a well-known self-correcting point process named stress release model (Vere-Jones, J. Phys. Earth, 1978; Bebbington & Harte, GJI, 2003, Varini & Rotondi, Env. Ecol. Stat., 2015). In the interval between two subsequent leader events, subordinate events are expected to cluster at the beginning (aftershocks) and at the end (foreshocks) of that interval; hence, they are modeled by a failure processes that allows bathtub-shaped hazard function. In particular, we have examined the generalized Weibull distributions, a large family that contains distributions with different bathtub-shaped hazard as well as the standard Weibull distribution (Lai, Springer, 2014). The model is fitted to a dataset of Italian historical earthquakes and the results of Bayesian inference are shown.

Modeling of Abrasion and Crushing of Unbound Granular Materials During Compaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ocampo, Manuel S.; Caicedo, Bernardo

2009-06-01

Unbound compacted granular materials are commonly used in engineering structures as layers in road pavements, railroad beds, highway embankments, and foundations. These structures are generally subjected to dynamic loading by construction operations, traffic and wheel loads. These repeated or cyclic loads cause abrasion and crushing of the granular materials. Abrasion changes a particle's shape, and crushing divides the particle into a mixture of many small particles of varying sizes. Particle breakage is important because the mechanical and hydraulic properties of these materials depend upon their grain size distribution. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the evolution of the grain size distribution of these materials. In this paper an analytical model for unbound granular materials is proposed in order to evaluate particle crushing of gravels and soils subjected to cyclic loads. The model is based on a Markov chain which describes the development of grading changes in the material as a function of stress levels. In the model proposed, each particle size is a state in the system, and the evolution of the material is the movement of particles from one state to another in n steps. Each step is a load cycle, and movement between states is possible with a transition probability. The crushing of particles depends on the mechanical properties of each grain and the packing density of the granular material. The transition probability was calculated using both the survival probability defined by Weibull and the compressible packing model developed by De Larrard. Material mechanical properties are considered using the Weibull probability theory. The size and shape of the grains, as well as the method of processing the packing density are considered using De Larrard's model. Results of the proposed analytical model show a good agreement with the experimental tests carried out using the gyratory compaction test.

Bridge element deterioration rates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

This report describes the development of bridge element deterioration rates using the NYSDOT : bridge inspection database using Markov chains and Weibull-based approaches. It is observed : that Weibull-based approach is more reliable for developing b...

The influence of micropore size on the mechanical properties of bulk hydroxyapatite and hydroxyapatite scaffolds.

PubMed

Cordell, Jacqueline M; Vogl, Michelle L; Wagoner Johnson, Amy J

2009-10-01

While recognized as a promising bone substitute material, hydroxyapatite (HA) has had limited use in clinical settings because of its inherent brittle behavior. It is well established that macropores ( approximately 100 microm) in a HA implant, or scaffold, are required for bone ingrowth, but recent research has shown that ingrowth is enhanced when scaffolds also contain microporosity. HA is sensitive to synthesis and processing parameters and therefore characterization for specific applications is necessary for transition to the clinic. To that end, the mechanical behavior of bulk microporous HA and HA scaffolds with multi-scale porosity (macropores between rods in the range of 250-350 microm and micropores within the rods with average size of either 5.96 microm or 16.2 microm) was investigated in order to determine how strength and reliability were affected by micropore size (5.96 microm versus 16.2 microm). For the bulk microporous HA, strength increased with decreasing micropore size in both bending (19 MPa to 22 MPa) and compression (71 MPa to 110 MPa). To determine strength reliability, the Weibull moduli for the bulk microporous HA were determined. The Weibull moduli for bending increased (became more reliable) with decreasing pore size (7 to 10) while the Weibull moduli for compression decreased (became less reliable) with decreasing pore size (9 to 6). Furthermore, the elastic properties of the bulk microporous HA (elastic modulus of 30 GPa) and the compressive strengths of the HA scaffolds with multi-scale porosity (8 MPa) did not vary with pore size. The mechanisms responsible for the trends observed were discussed.

An investigation into the use of surface waves for the real-time inspection of polymer composites during fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linstrom, Elizabeth Jane

A new approach to the nondestructive evaluation of polymer matrix/graphite fiber composites is presented. This technique permits the determination of the top ply bond strength of a laminate based on the results of ultrasonic testing. This technique is designed to be used for the real-time, nondestructive evaluation of composites during tape laying. By separately bonding the top ply of thermoset and thermoplastic polymer composite laminates, a poor ply bond was achieved solely at the interface of the top ply and the rest of the laminate. Using angled incidence, a 5 MHz, 4 musecond ultrasonic pulse was induced into the composite samples. This created waves traveling along the surface of the composite samples that were picked up by a receiving transducer. The received signal was cross-correlated with an artificially constructed replica of the input signal. The maximum amplitude of the cross-correlated signal was recorded. The cross-correlated signal was then converted to the frequency spectra using a fast Fourier transform. The maximum amplitude of the frequency spectra was then recorded. These measurements were repeated at 18 to 30 different locations on each composite sample. The resulting collection of maximum amplitudes of cross-correlated signals and frequency spectra were fit to two parameter Weibull distributions. The composite samples were destructively evaluated using a flat-wise tensile test. The B-basis values of the ultrasonic data Weibull distributions were compared to the B-basis values of the Weibull distribution of the strength data. A good correlation was found.

Weibull Multiplicative Model and Machine Learning Models for Full-Automatic Dark-Spot Detection from SAR Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taravat, A.; Del Frate, F.

2013-09-01

As a major aspect of marine pollution, oil release into the sea has serious biological and environmental impacts. Among remote sensing systems (which is a tool that offers a non-destructive investigation method), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can provide valuable synoptic information about the position and size of the oil spill due to its wide area coverage and day/night, and all-weather capabilities. In this paper we present a new automated method for oil-spill monitoring. A new approach is based on the combination of Weibull Multiplicative Model and machine learning techniques to differentiate between dark spots and the background. First, the filter created based on Weibull Multiplicative Model is applied to each sub-image. Second, the sub-image is segmented by two different neural networks techniques (Pulsed Coupled Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks). As the last step, a very simple filtering process is used to eliminate the false targets. The proposed approaches were tested on 20 ENVISAT and ERS2 images which contained dark spots. The same parameters were used in all tests. For the overall dataset, the average accuracies of 94.05 % and 95.20 % were obtained for PCNN and MLP methods, respectively. The average computational time for dark-spot detection with a 256 × 256 image in about 4 s for PCNN segmentation using IDL software which is the fastest one in this field at present. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very fast, robust and effective. The proposed approach can be applied to the future spaceborne SAR images.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2008-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2012-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2014-06-01

Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

A comparison of the thermal inactivation kinetics of human norovirus surrogates and hepatitis A virus in buffered cell culture medium.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2014-09-01

Human noroviruses and hepatitis A virus (HAV) are considered as epidemiologically significant causes of foodborne disease. Therefore, studies are needed to bridge existing data gaps and determine appropriate parameters for thermal inactivation of human noroviruses and HAV. The objectives of this research were to compare the thermal inactivation kinetics of human norovirus surrogates (murine norovirus (MNV-1), and feline calicivirus (FCV-F9)) and HAV in buffered medium (2-ml vials), compare first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, calculate Arrhenius activation energy for each model, and evaluate model efficiency using selected statistical criteria. The D-values calculated from the first-order model (50-72 °C) ranged from 0.21-19.75 min for FCV-F9, 0.25-36.28 min for MNV-1, and 0.88-56.22 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the tD = 1 (time to destroy 1 log) for FCV-F9, MNV-1 and HAV at the same temperatures ranged from 0.10-13.27, 0.09-26.78, and 1.03-39.91 min, respectively. The z-values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 9.66 °C, 9.16 °C, and 14.50 °C, respectively, using the Weibull model. For the first order model, z-values were 9.36 °C, 9.32 °C, and 12.49 °C for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV, respectively. For the Weibull model, estimated activation energies for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 225, 278, and 182 kJ/mol, respectively, while the calculated activation energies for the first order model were 195, 202, and 171 kJ/mol, respectively. Knowledge of the thermal inactivation kinetics of norovirus surrogates and HAV will allow the development of processes that produce safer food products and improve consumer safety. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Monolithic ceramic analysis using the SCARE program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.

1988-01-01

The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.

Spatial variation of statistical properties of extreme water levels along the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo; Rocha, Eugénio

2016-04-01

Most of existing projections of future extreme water levels rely on the use of classic generalised extreme value distributions. The choice to use a particular distribution is often made based on the absolute value of the shape parameter of the Generalise Extreme Value distribution. If this parameter is small, the Gumbel distribution is most appropriate while in the opposite case the Weibull or Frechet distribution could be used. We demonstrate that the alongshore variation in the statistical properties of numerically simulated high water levels along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea is so large that the use of a single distribution for projections of extreme water levels is highly questionable. The analysis is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The output of the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and the output of the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the maxima of water levels of subsequent years may be correlated in the Baltic Sea, we also employ maxima for stormy seasons. We provide a detailed analysis of spatial variation of the parameters of the family of extreme value distributions along an approximately 600 km long coastal section from the north-western shore of Latvia in the Baltic Proper until the eastern Gulf of Finland. The parameters are evaluated using maximum likelihood method and method of moments. The analysis also covers the entire Gulf of Riga. The core parameter of this family of distributions, the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, exhibits extensive variation in the study area. Its values evaluated using the Hydrognomon software and maximum likelihood method, vary from about -0.1 near the north-western coast of Latvia in the Baltic Proper up to about 0.05 in the eastern Gulf of Finland. This parameter is very close to zero near Tallinn in the western Gulf of Finland. Thus, it is natural that the Gumbel distribution gives adequate projections of extreme water levels for the vicinity of Tallinn. More importantly, this feature indicates that the use of a single distribution for the projections of extreme water levels and their return periods for the entire Baltic Sea coast is inappropriate. The physical reason is the interplay of the complex shape of large subbasins (such as the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland) of the sea and highly anisotropic wind regime. The 'impact' of this anisotropy on the statistics of water level is amplified by the overall anisotropy of the distributions of the frequency of occurrence of high and low water levels. The most important conjecture is that long-term behaviour of water level extremes in different coastal sections of the Baltic Sea may be fundamentally different.

Topology and evolution of technology innovation networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valverde, Sergi; Solé, Ricard V.; Bedau, Mark A.; Packard, Norman

2007-11-01

The web of relations linking technological innovation can be fairly described in terms of patent citations. The resulting patent citation network provides a picture of the large-scale organization of innovations and its time evolution. Here we study the patterns of change of patents registered by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. We show that the scaling behavior exhibited by this network is consistent with a preferential attachment mechanism together with a Weibull-shaped aging term. Such an attachment kernel is shared by scientific citation networks, thus indicating a universal type of mechanism linking ideas and designs and their evolution. The implications for evolutionary theory of innovation are discussed.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2013-01-01

A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.

Fatigue Behavior of Crystalline-Reinforced Glass-Ceramics.

PubMed

Vicari, Carolina Barbosa; Magalhães, Bárbara de Oliveira; Griggs, Jason Alan; Borba, Márcia

2018-01-03

To evaluate the fatigue behavior of two crystalline-reinforced ceramics: leucite-reinforced (VL) and lithium disilicate-based (VD) glass-ceramics. Bar-shaped specimens (16 × 4 × 1.2 mm) were produced for each ceramic using prefabricated CAD/CAM blocks. For each group, 30 specimens were subjected to a three-point flexural strength test in a universal testing machine. For VL and VD, 36 and 41 specimens were subjected to a cyclic fatigue test, respectively. The cyclic fatigue test was performed with a pneumatic mechanical cycling machine (1 Hz; 37°C distilled water). Specimens were tested at two stress levels for each preset lifetime (10 3 and 10 4 cycles for VL; 10 4 and 10 5 cycles for VD) following the boundary technique. Fractography was performed with a scanning electron microscope. Data were analyzed with Weibull analysis. There were significant differences among groups for characteristic strength (σ 0 ) and Weibull modulus (m), as the confidence intervals did not overlap. The VD group presented the highest values of σ 0 , but the lowest Weibull modulus. Both groups showed a reduction of approximately 60% of the initial flexural strength (σ f ) after cycling for 10 4 cycles. For VD tested in fatigue, there was no degradation of σ f when the number of cycles was increased from 10 4 to 10 5 . The VL group showed an 18% decrease in σ f when the number of cycles increased from 10 3 to 10 4 . Flexural strength values estimated for a 5% probability of failure were 36 MPa for VL and 55 MPa for VD, after 10 4 cycles. Both glass-ceramics showed similar strength degradation (60%) after a lifetime of 10 4 cycles, despite their distinct mechanical properties. Mechanical cycling in humid conditions proved to be an important factor for the degradation of the mechanical properties of crystalline-reinforced glass-ceramics. © 2018 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Handling of computational in vitro/in vivo correlation problems by Microsoft Excel II. Distribution functions and moments.

PubMed

Langenbucher, Frieder

2003-01-01

MS Excel is a useful tool to handle in vitro/in vivo correlation (IVIVC) distribution functions, with emphasis on the Weibull and the biexponential distribution, which are most useful for the presentation of cumulative profiles, e.g. release in vitro or urinary excretion in vivo, and differential profiles such as the plasma response in vivo. The discussion includes moments (AUC and mean) as summarizing statistics, and data-fitting algorithms for parameter estimation.

Establishment of a center of excellence for applied mathematical and statistical research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, W. A.; Gray, H. L.

1983-01-01

The state of the art was assessed with regards to efforts in support of the crop production estimation problem and alternative generic proportion estimation techniques were investigated. Topics covered include modeling the greeness profile (Badhwarmos model), parameter estimation using mixture models such as CLASSY, and minimum distance estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. Approaches to the problem of obtaining proportion estimates when the underlying distributions are asymmetric are examined including the properties of Weibull distribution.

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): Weibull analysis report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raffaelli, Gary G.

1987-01-01

The Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) and Hydraulic Power Unit (HPU) Space Shuttle Subsystems were reviewed as candidates for demonstrating the Weibull analysis methodology. Three hardware components were identified as analysis candidates: the turbine wheel, the gearbox, and the gas generator. Detailed review of subsystem level wearout and failure history revealed the lack of actual component failure data. In addition, component wearout data were not readily available or would require a separate data accumulation effort by the vendor. Without adequate component history data being available, the Weibull analysis methodology application to the APU and HPU subsystem group was terminated.

Weibull-Based Design Methodology for Rotating Aircraft Engine Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry

2002-01-01

The NASA Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)-Engine) is used as the basis of a Weibull-based life and reliability analysis. Each component's life and thus the engine's life is defined by high-cycle fatigue (HCF) or low-cycle fatigue (LCF). Knowing the cumulative life distribution of each of the components making up the engine as represented by a Weibull slope is a prerequisite to predicting the life and reliability of the entire engine. As the engine Weibull slope increases, the predicted lives decrease. The predicted engine lives L(sub 5) (95 % probability of survival) of approximately 17,000 and 32,000 hr do correlate with current engine maintenance practices without and with refurbishment. respectively. The individual high pressure turbine (HPT) blade lives necessary to obtain a blade system life L(sub 0.1) (99.9 % probability of survival) of 9000 hr for Weibull slopes of 3, 6 and 9, are 47,391 and 20,652 and 15,658 hr, respectively. For a design life of the HPT disks having probable points of failure equal to or greater than 36,000 hr at a probability of survival of 99.9 %, the predicted disk system life L(sub 0.1) can vary from 9,408 to 24,911 hr.

Cure modeling in real-time prediction: How much does it help?

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Zhang, Qiang; Lan, Yu; Li, Yimei; Heitjan, Daniel F

2017-08-01

Various parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches exist for real-time prediction in time-to-event clinical trials. Recently, Chen (2016 BMC Biomedical Research Methodology 16) proposed a prediction method based on parametric cure-mixture modeling, intending to cover those situations where it appears that a non-negligible fraction of subjects is cured. In this article we apply a Weibull cure-mixture model to create predictions, demonstrating the approach in RTOG 0129, a randomized trial in head-and-neck cancer. We compare the ultimate realized data in RTOG 0129 to interim predictions from a Weibull cure-mixture model, a standard Weibull model without a cure component, and a nonparametric model based on the Bayesian bootstrap. The standard Weibull model predicted that events would occur earlier than the Weibull cure-mixture model, but the difference was unremarkable until late in the trial when evidence for a cure became clear. Nonparametric predictions often gave undefined predictions or infinite prediction intervals, particularly at early stages of the trial. Simulations suggest that cure modeling can yield better-calibrated prediction intervals when there is a cured component, or the appearance of a cured component, but at a substantial cost in the average width of the intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

In search of best fitted composite model to the ALAE data set with transformed Gamma and inversed transformed Gamma families

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maghsoudi, Mastoureh; Bakar, Shaiful Anuar Abu

2017-05-01

In this paper, a recent novel approach is applied to estimate the threshold parameter of a composite model. Several composite models from Transformed Gamma and Inverse Transformed Gamma families are constructed based on this approach and their parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method. These composite models are fitted to allocated loss adjustment expenses (ALAE). In comparison to all composite models studied, the composite Weibull-Inverse Transformed Gamma model is proved to be a competitor candidate as it best fit the loss data. The final part considers the backtesting method to verify the validation of VaR and CTE risk measures.

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1991-01-01

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Determination of thermal inactivation kinetics of hepatitis A virus in blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) homogenate.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2014-05-01

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is a food-borne enteric virus responsible for outbreaks of hepatitis associated with shellfish consumption. The objectives of this study were to determine the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV in blue mussels, to compare the first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, to calculate Arrhenius activation energy for each model, and to evaluate model efficiency by using selected statistical criteria. The times required to reduce the population by 1 log cycle (D-values) calculated from the first-order model (50 to 72°C) ranged from 1.07 to 54.17 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the times required to destroy 1 log unit (tD = 1) of HAV at the same temperatures were 1.57 to 37.91 min. At 72°C, the treatment times required to achieve a 6-log reduction were 7.49 min for the first-order model and 8.47 min for the Weibull model. The z-values (changes in temperature required for a 90% change in the log D-values) calculated for HAV were 15.88 ± 3.97°C (R(2), 0.94) with the Weibull model and 12.97 ± 0.59°C (R(2), 0.93) with the first-order model. The calculated activation energies for the first-order model and the Weibull model were 165 and 153 kJ/mol, respectively. The results revealed that the Weibull model was more appropriate for representing the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV in blue mussels. Correct understanding of the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV could allow precise determination of the thermal process conditions to prevent food-borne viral outbreaks associated with the consumption of contaminated mussels.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence of the most stretchable egg sac silk stalk, of the European spider of the year Meta menardi.

PubMed

Lepore, Emiliano; Marchioro, Andrea; Isaia, Marco; Buehler, Markus J; Pugno, Nicola M

2012-01-01

Spider silks display generally strong mechanical properties, even if differences between species and within the same species can be observed. While many different types of silks have been tested, the mechanical properties of stalks of silk taken from the egg sac of the cave spider Meta menardi have not yet been analyzed. Meta menardi has recently been chosen as the "European spider of the year 2012", from the European Society of Arachnology. Here we report a study where silk stalks were collected directly from several caves in the north-west of Italy. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) images showed that stalks are made up of a large number of threads, each of them with diameter of 6.03 ± 0.58 µm. The stalks were strained at the constant rate of 2 mm/min, using a tensile testing machine. The observed maximum stress, strain and toughness modulus, defined as the area under the stress-strain curve, are 0.64 GPa, 751% and 130.7 MJ/m(3), respectively. To the best of our knowledge, such an observed huge elongation has never been reported for egg sac silk stalks and suggests a huge unrolling microscopic mechanism of the macroscopic stalk that, as a continuation of the protective egg sac, is expected to be composed by fibres very densely and randomly packed. The Weibull statistics was used to analyze the results from mechanical testing, and an average value of Weibull modulus (m) is deduced to be in the range of 1.5-1.8 with a Weibull scale parameter (σ(0)) in the range of 0.33-0.41 GPa, showing a high coefficient of correlation (R(2) = 0.97).

Evidence of the Most Stretchable Egg Sac Silk Stalk, of the European Spider of the Year Meta menardi

PubMed Central

Lepore, Emiliano; Marchioro, Andrea; Isaia, Marco; Buehler, Markus J.; Pugno, Nicola M.

2012-01-01

Spider silks display generally strong mechanical properties, even if differences between species and within the same species can be observed. While many different types of silks have been tested, the mechanical properties of stalks of silk taken from the egg sac of the cave spider Meta menardi have not yet been analyzed. Meta menardi has recently been chosen as the “European spider of the year 2012”, from the European Society of Arachnology. Here we report a study where silk stalks were collected directly from several caves in the north-west of Italy. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) images showed that stalks are made up of a large number of threads, each of them with diameter of 6.03±0.58 µm. The stalks were strained at the constant rate of 2 mm/min, using a tensile testing machine. The observed maximum stress, strain and toughness modulus, defined as the area under the stress-strain curve, are 0.64 GPa, 751% and 130.7 MJ/m3, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, such an observed huge elongation has never been reported for egg sac silk stalks and suggests a huge unrolling microscopic mechanism of the macroscopic stalk that, as a continuation of the protective egg sac, is expected to be composed by fibres very densely and randomly packed. The Weibull statistics was used to analyze the results from mechanical testing, and an average value of Weibull modulus (m) is deduced to be in the range of 1.5–1.8 with a Weibull scale parameter (σ 0) in the range of 0.33–0.41 GPa, showing a high coefficient of correlation (R2 = 0.97). PMID:22347380

The influence of Y-TZP surface treatment on topography and ceramic/resin cement interfacial fracture toughness.

PubMed

Paes, P N G; Bastian, F L; Jardim, P M

2017-09-01

Consider the efficacy of glass infiltration etching (SIE) treatment as a procedure to modify the zirconia surface resulting in higher interfacial fracture toughness. Y-TZP was subjected to 5 different surface treatments conditions consisting of no treatment (G1), SIE followed by hydrofluoric acid treatment (G2), heat treated at 750°C (G3), hydrofluoric acid treated (G4) and airborne-particle abrasion with alumina particles (G5). The effect of surface treatment on roughness was evaluated by Atomic Force Microscopy providing three different parameters: R a , R sk and surface area variation. The ceramic/resin cement interface was analyzed by Fracture Mechanics K I test with failure mode determined by fractographic analysis. Weibull's analysis was also performed to evaluate the structural integrity of the adhesion zone. G2 and G4 specimens showed very similar, and high R a values but different surface area variation (33% for G2 and 13% for G4) and they presented the highest fracture toughness (K IC ). Weibull's analysis showed G2 (SIE) tendency to exhibit higher K IC values than the other groups but with more data scatter and a higher early failure probability than G4 specimens. Selective glass infiltration etching surface treatment was effective in modifying the zirconia surface roughness, increasing the bonding area and hence the mechanical imbrications at the zirconia/resin cement interface resulting in higher fracture toughness (K IC ) values with higher K IC values obtained when failure probability above 20% was expected (Weibull's distribution) among all the experimental groups. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Ernest Y.

1992-01-01

Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

Lifetime assessment by intermittent inspection under the mixture Weibull power law model with application to XLPE cables.

PubMed

Hirose, H

1997-01-01

This paper proposes a new treatment for electrical insulation degradation. Some types of insulation which have been used under various circumstances are considered to degrade at various rates in accordance with their stress circumstances. The cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulated cables inspected by major Japanese electric companies clearly indicate such phenomena. By assuming that the inspected specimen is sampled from one of the clustered groups, a mixed degradation model can be constructed. Since the degradation of the insulation under common circumstances is considered to follow a Weibull distribution, a mixture model and a Weibull power law can be combined. This is called The mixture Weibull power law model. By using the maximum likelihood estimation for the newly proposed model to Japanese 22 and 33 kV insulation class cables, they are clustered into a certain number of groups by using the AIC and the generalized likelihood ratio test method. The reliability of the cables at specified years are assessed.

Functional models for colloid retention in porous media at the triple line.

PubMed

Dathe, Annette; Zevi, Yuniati; Richards, Brian K; Gao, Bin; Parlange, J-Yves; Steenhuis, Tammo S

2014-01-01

Spectral confocal microscope visualizations of microsphere movement in unsaturated porous media showed that attachment at the Air Water Solid (AWS) interface was an important retention mechanism. These visualizations can aid in resolving the functional form of retention rates of colloids at the AWS interface. In this study, soil adsorption isotherm equations were adapted by replacing the chemical concentration in the water as independent variable by the cumulative colloids passing by. In order of increasing number of fitted parameters, the functions tested were the Langmuir adsorption isotherm, the Logistic distribution, and the Weibull distribution. The functions were fitted against colloid concentrations obtained from time series of images acquired with a spectral confocal microscope for three experiments performed where either plain or carboxylated polystyrene latex microspheres were pulsed in a small flow chamber filled with cleaned quartz sand. Both moving and retained colloids were quantified over time. In fitting the models to the data, the agreement improved with increasing number of model parameters. The Weibull distribution gave overall the best fit. The logistic distribution did not fit the initial retention of microspheres well but otherwise the fit was good. The Langmuir isotherm only fitted the longest time series well. The results can be explained that initially when colloids are first introduced the rate of retention is low. Once colloids are at the AWS interface they act as anchor point for other colloids to attach and thereby increasing the retention rate as clusters form. Once the available attachment sites diminish, the retention rate decreases.

Mechanical properties of zirconia reinforced lithium silicate glass-ceramic.

PubMed

Elsaka, Shaymaa E; Elnaghy, Amr M

2016-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the mechanical properties of recently introduced zirconia reinforced lithium silicate glass-ceramic. Two types of CAD/CAM glass-ceramics (Vita Suprinity (VS); zirconia reinforced lithium silicate and IPS e.max CAD (IC); lithium disilicate) were used. Fracture toughness, flexural strength, elastic modulus, hardness, brittleness index, and microstructures were evaluated. Data were analyzed using independent t tests. Weibull analysis of flexural strength data was also performed. VS had significantly higher fracture toughness (2.31±0.17MPam(0.5)), flexural strength (443.63±38.90MPa), elastic modulus (70.44±1.97GPa), and hardness (6.53±0.49GPa) than IC (P<0.001). On the other hand, VS glass-ceramic revealed significantly a higher brittleness index (2.84±0.26μm(-1/2)) (lower machinability) than IC glass-ceramic (P<0.05). VS demonstrated a homogeneous fine crystalline structure while, IC revealed a structure with needle-shaped fine-grained crystals embedded in a glassy matrix. The VS glass-ceramic revealed a lower probability of failure and a higher strength than IC glass-ceramic according to Weibull analysis. The VS zirconia reinforced lithium silicate glass-ceramic revealed higher mechanical properties compared with IC lithium disilicate glass-ceramic. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN STRATEGY FOR THE WEIBULL DOSE RESPONSE MODEL (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of the research was to determine optimum design point allocation for estimation of relative yield losses from ozone pollution when the true and fitted yield-ozone dose response relationship follows the Weibull. The optimum design is dependent on the values of the We...

USE OF WEIBULL FUNCTION FOR NON-LINEAR ANALYSIS OF EFFECTS OF LOW LEVELS OF SIMULATED HERBICIDE DRIFT ON PLANTS

EPA Science Inventory

We compared two regression models, which are based on the Weibull and probit functions, for the analysis of pesticide toxicity data from laboratory studies on Illinois crop and native plant species. Both mathematical models are continuous, differentiable, strictly positive, and...

Multi-objective and Perishable Fuzzy Inventory Models Having Weibull Life-time With Time Dependent Demand, Demand Dependent Production and Time Varying Holding Cost: A Possibility/Necessity Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, Savita; Mondal, Seema Sarkar

2010-10-01

A multi-objective inventory model of deteriorating item has been developed with Weibull rate of decay, time dependent demand, demand dependent production, time varying holding cost allowing shortages in fuzzy environments for non- integrated and integrated businesses. Here objective is to maximize the profit from different deteriorating items with space constraint. The impreciseness of inventory parameters and goals for non-integrated business has been expressed by linear membership functions. The compromised solutions are obtained by different fuzzy optimization methods. To incorporate the relative importance of the objectives, the different cardinal weights crisp/fuzzy have been assigned. The models are illustrated with numerical examples and results of models with crisp/fuzzy weights are compared. The result for the model assuming them to be integrated business is obtained by using Generalized Reduced Gradient Method (GRG). The fuzzy integrated model with imprecise inventory cost is formulated to optimize the possibility necessity measure of fuzzy goal of the objective function by using credibility measure of fuzzy event by taking fuzzy expectation. The results of crisp/fuzzy integrated model are illustrated with numerical examples and results are compared.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erin V.

2007-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Tensile bond strength of filled and unfilled adhesives to dentin.

PubMed

Braga, R R; Cesar, P F; Gonzaga, C C

2000-04-01

To determine the tensile bond strength of three filled and two unfilled adhesives applied to bovine dentin. Fragments of the labial dentin of bovine incisors were embedded in PVC cylinders with self-cure acrylic resin, and ground flat using 200 grit and 600 grit sandpaper. The following adhesive systems were tested (n=10): Prime & Bond NT, Prime & Bond NT dual cure, Prime & Bond 2.1, OptiBond Solo and Single Bond. A 3 mm-diameter bonding surface was delimited using a perforated adhesive tape. After etching with 37% phosphoric acid and adhesive application, a resin-based composite truncated cone (TPH, shade A3) was built. Tensile test was performed after 24 hrs storage in distilled water at 37 degrees C. Failure mode was accessed using a x10 magnification stereomicroscope. Weibull statistical analysis revealed significant differences in the characteristic strength between Single Bond and Prime & Bond NT dual cure, and between Single Bond and Prime & Bond 2.1. The Weibull parameter (m) was statistically similar among the five groups. Single Bond and Prime & Bond NT showed areas of dentin cohesive failure in most of the specimens. For OptiBond Solo, Prime & Bond NT dual cure and Prime & Bond 2.1 failure was predominantly adhesive.

Effect of BN coating on the strength of a mullite type fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, K. K.; Xu, Z. R.; Ha, J.-S.; Schmücker, M.; Schneider, H.

1997-09-01

Nextel 480 is a polycrystalline essentially mullite fiber (70 wt.-% Al2O3+28 wt.-% SiO2+2 wt.-% B2O3). Different thicknesses of BN were applied as coatings on this fiber. Optical, scanning electron, and transmission electron microscopy were used to characterize the microstructure of the coatings and fibers. The effects of coating and high temperature exposure on the fiber strength were investigated using two-parameter Weibull distribution. TEM examination showed that the BN coating has a turbostratic structure, with the basal planes lying predominantly parallel to the fiber surface. Such an orientation of coating is desirable for easy crack deflection and subsequent fiber pullout in a composite. The BN coated Nextel 480 fiber showed that Weibull mean strength increased first and then decreased with increasing coating thickness. This was due to the surface flaw healing effect of the coating (up to 0.3 μm) while in the case of thick BN coating (1 μm), the soft nature of the coating material had a more dominant effect and resulted in a decrease of the fiber strength. High temperature exposure of Nextel 480 resulted in grain growth, which led to a strength loss.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

C-Sphere Strength-Size Scaling in a Bearing-Grade Silicon Nitride

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, Andrew A; Jadaan, Osama M.; Kirkland, Timothy Philip

2008-01-01

A C-sphere specimen geometry was used to determine the failure strength distributions of a commercially available bearing-grade silicon nitride (Si3N4) having ball diameters of 12.7 and 25.4 mm. Strengths for both diameters were determined using the combination of failure load, C sphere geometry, and finite element analysis and fitted using two-parameter Weibull distributions. Effective areas of both diameters were estimated as a function of Weibull modulus and used to explore whether the strength distributions predictably strength-scaled between each size. They did not. That statistical observation suggested that the same flaw type did not limit the strength of both ball diametersmore » indicating a lack of material homogeneity between the two sizes. Optical fractography confirmed that. It showed there were two distinct strength-limiting flaw types in both ball diameters, that one flaw type was always associated with lower strength specimens, and that significantly higher fraction of the 24.5-mm-diameter c-sphere specimens failed from it. Predictable strength-size-scaling would therefore not result as a consequence of this because these flaw types were not homogenously distributed and sampled in both c-sphere geometries.« less

On the gap between an empirical distribution and an exponential distribution of waiting times for price changes in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya

2007-03-01

We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high-frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well approximated by a Weibull distribution rather than an exponential distribution in the non-asymptotic regime. Moreover, we quantitatively evaluate how much an empirical data is far from an exponential distribution using a Weibull fit. Finally, we discuss a transition between a Weibull-law and a power-law in the long time asymptotic regime.

Development of Testing Methodologies for the Mechanical Properties of MEMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate and design testing strategies to determine the mechanical properties of MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) as well as investigate the development of a MEMS Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM). One item of potential interest is the design of a test for the Weibull size effect in pressure membranes. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. However, the primary area of investigation will most likely be analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. This will be a continuation of the previous years work. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads.

A note on `a replenishment policy for items with price-dependent demand, time-proportional deterioration and no shortages'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Nita H.; Soni, Hardik N.; Gupta, Jyoti

2014-08-01

In a recent paper, Begum et al. (2012, International Journal of Systems Science, 43, 903-910) established pricing and replenishment policy for an inventory system with price-sensitive demand rate, time-proportional deterioration rate which follows three parameters, Weibull distribution and no shortages. In their model formulation, it is observed that the retailer's stock level reaches zero before the deterioration occurs. Consequently, the model resulted in traditional inventory model with price sensitive demand rate and no shortages. Hence, the main purpose of this note is to modify and present complete model formulation for Begum et al. (2012). The proposed model is validated by a numerical example and the sensitivity analysis of parameters is carried out.

Evaluation of the surface strength of glass plates shaped by hot slumping process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proserpio, L.; Crimi, G.; Ghigo, M.; Pareschi, G.; Salmaso, B.; D'Este, A.; Dall'Igna, R.; Silvestri, M.; Parodi, G.; Martelli, F.

2013-09-01

The Hot Slumping Technology is under development by several research groups in the world for the realization of X-ray segmented mirrors, based on thin glass plates: during the process of slumping, a glass foil is shaped over a mould at temperatures above its transformation point. The performed thermal cycle and related operations might have effects on the strength characteristics of the glass, with consequences on the structural design of the elemental optical module and consecutively on the whole X-ray telescope. No reference technical literature exists for this particular aspect since the strength of glass depends on several parameters connected to any of the manufacturing and glass history stages, such as the distribution of surface flaws or the residual internal stresses. It is therefore extremely important to test the mechanical strength of the glass plates after they underwent the slumping process. The Astronomical Observatory of Brera (INAFOAB, Merate - Italy) started a deep analysis of this aspect, with the collaboration of Stazione Sperimentale del Vetro (SSV, Murano - Italy) and BCV Progetti (Milano - Italy). The entire study has been realized on borosilicate glass D263 by Schott, largely considered for the realization of next-generation IXO-like X-ray telescope. More than 200 slumped plates of dimension 100 mm x 100 mm and thickness 0.4 mm, both flat and curved, have been produced and tested; the collected experimental data have been compared to non-linear FEM analyses and treated with Weibull statistics, giving the strength data necessary to assess the current IXO glass X-ray telescope design, in terms of survival probability, when subject to static and acoustic load characteristic of the launch phase. The paper describes the activities performed and presents the obtained results.

Thermal inactivation kinetics of hepatitis A virus in homogenized clam meat (Mercenaria mercenaria).

PubMed

Bozkurt, H; D'Souza, D H; Davidson, P M

2015-09-01

Epidemiological evidence suggests that hepatitis A virus (HAV) is the most common pathogen transmitted by bivalve molluscs such as clams, cockles, mussels and oysters. This study aimed to generate thermal inactivation kinetics for HAV as a first step to design adequate thermal processes to control clam-associated HAV outbreaks. Survivor curves and thermal death curves were generated for different treatment times (0-6 min) at different temperatures (50-72°C) and Weibull and first-order models were compared. D-values for HAV ranged from 47·37 ± 1·23 to 1·55 ± 0·12 min for the first-order model and 64·43 ± 3·47 to 1·25 ± 0·45 min for the Weibull model at temperatures from 50 to 72°C. z-Values for HAV in clams were 12·97 ± 0·59°C and 14·83 ± 0·0·28°C using the Weibull and first-order model respectively. The calculated activation energies for the first-order and Weibull model were 145 and 170 kJ mole(-1) respectively. The Weibull model described the thermal inactivation behaviour of HAV better than the first-order model. This study provides novel and precise information on thermal inactivation kinetics of HAV in homogenized clams. This will enable reliable thermal process calculations for HAV inactivation in clams and closely related seafood. © 2015 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

On the Distribution of Earthquake Interevent Times and the Impact of Spatial Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristopulos, Dionissios

2013-04-01

The distribution of earthquake interevent times is a subject that has attracted much attention in the statistical physics literature [1-3]. A recent paper proposes that the distribution of earthquake interevent times follows from the the interplay of the crustal strength distribution and the loading function (stress versus time) of the Earth's crust locally [4]. It was also shown that the Weibull distribution describes earthquake interevent times provided that the crustal strength also follows the Weibull distribution and that the loading function follows a power-law during the loading cycle. I will discuss the implications of this work and will present supporting evidence based on the analysis of data from seismic catalogs. I will also discuss the theoretical evidence in support of the Weibull distribution based on models of statistical physics [5]. Since other-than-Weibull interevent times distributions are not excluded in [4], I will illustrate the use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in order to determine which probability distributions are not rejected by the data. Finally, we propose a modification of the Weibull distribution if the size of the system under investigation (i.e., the area over which the earthquake activity occurs) is finite with respect to a critical link size. keywords: hypothesis testing, modified Weibull, hazard rate, finite size References [1] Corral, A., 2004. Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 9210) art. no. 108501. [2] Saichev, A., Sornette, D. 2007. Theory of earthquake recurrence times, J. Geophys. Res., Ser. B 112, B04313/1-26. [3] Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G., 2009. Origin and nonuniversality of the earthquake interevent time distribution Phys. Rev. Lett., 102 (16), art. no. 168501. [4] Hristopulos, D.T., 2003. Spartan Gibbs random field models for geostatistical applications, SIAM Jour. Sci. Comput., 24, 2125-2162. [5] I. Eliazar and J. Klafter, 2006. Growth-collapse and decay-surge evolutions, and geometric Langevin equations, Physica A, 367, 106 - 128.

The fracture load and failure types of veneered anterior zirconia crowns: an analysis of normal and Weibull distribution of complete and censored data.

PubMed

Stawarczyk, Bogna; Ozcan, Mutlu; Hämmerle, Christoph H F; Roos, Malgorzata

2012-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the fracture load of veneered anterior zirconia crowns using normal and Weibull distribution of complete and censored data. Standardized zirconia frameworks for maxillary canines were milled using a CAD/CAM system and randomly divided into 3 groups (N=90, n=30 per group). They were veneered with three veneering ceramics, namely GC Initial ZR, Vita VM9, IPS e.max Ceram using layering technique. The crowns were cemented with glass ionomer cement on metal abutments. The specimens were then loaded to fracture (1 mm/min) in a Universal Testing Machine. The data were analyzed using classical method (normal data distribution (μ, σ); Levene test and one-way ANOVA) and according to the Weibull statistics (s, m). In addition, fracture load results were analyzed depending on complete and censored failure types (only chipping vs. total fracture together with chipping). When computed with complete data, significantly higher mean fracture loads (N) were observed for GC Initial ZR (μ=978, σ=157; s=1043, m=7.2) and VITA VM9 (μ=1074, σ=179; s=1139; m=7.8) than that of IPS e.max Ceram (μ=798, σ=174; s=859, m=5.8) (p<0.05) by classical and Weibull statistics, respectively. When the data were censored for only total fracture, IPS e.max Ceram presented the lowest fracture load for chipping with both classical distribution (μ=790, σ=160) and Weibull statistics (s=836, m=6.5). When total fracture with chipping (classical distribution) was considered as failure, IPS e.max Ceram did not show significant fracture load for total fracture (μ=1054, σ=110) compared to other groups (GC Initial ZR: μ=1039, σ=152, VITA VM9: μ=1170, σ=166). According to Weibull distributed data, VITA VM9 showed significantly higher fracture load (s=1228, m=9.4) than those of other groups. Both classical distribution and Weibull statistics for complete data yielded similar outcomes. Censored data analysis of all ceramic systems based on failure types is essential and brings additional information regarding the susceptibility to chipping or total fracture. Copyright © 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerospace Applications of Weibull and Monte Carlo Simulation with Importance Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1998-01-01

Recent developments in reliability modeling and computer technology have made it practical to use the Weibull time to failure distribution to model the system reliability of complex fault-tolerant computer-based systems. These system models are becoming increasingly popular in space systems applications as a result of mounting data that support the decreasing Weibull failure distribution and the expectation of increased system reliability. This presentation introduces the new reliability modeling developments and demonstrates their application to a novel space system application. The application is a proposed guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system for use in a long duration manned spacecraft for a possible Mars mission. Comparisons to the constant failure rate model are presented and the ramifications of doing so are discussed.

Off-line wafer level reliability control: unique measurement method to monitor the lifetime indicator of gate oxide validated within bipolar/CMOS/DMOS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagnard, Xavier; Bonnaud, Olivier

2000-08-01

We have recently published a paper on a new rapid method for the determination of the lifetime of the gate oxide involved in a Bipolar/CMOS/DMOS technology (BCD). Because this previous method was based on a current measurement with gate voltage as a parameter needing several stress voltages, it was applied only by lot sampling. Thus, we tried to find an indicator in order to monitor the gate oxide lifetime during the wafer level parametric test and involving only one measurement of the device on each wafer test cell. Using the Weibull law and Crook model, combined with our recent model, we have developed a new test method needing only one electrical measurement of MOS capacitor to monitor the quality of the gate oxide. Based also on a current measurement, the parameter is the lifetime indicator of the gate oxide. From the analysis of several wafers, we gave evidence of the possibility to detect a low performance wafer, which corresponds to the infantile failure on the Weibull plot. In order to insert this new method in the BCD parametric program, a parametric flowchart was established. This type of measurement is an important challenges, because the actual measurements, breakdown charge, Qbd, and breakdown electric field, Ebd, at parametric level and Ebd and interface states density, Dit during the process cannot guarantee the gate oxide lifetime all along fabrication process. This indicator measurement is the only one, which predicts the lifetime decrease.

Modeling the pulsed light inactivation of microorganisms naturally occurring on vegetable substrates.

PubMed

Izquier, Adriana; Gómez-López, Vicente M

2011-09-01

Pulsed light (PL) is a fast non-thermal method for microbial inactivation. This research studied the kinetics of PL inactivation of microorganisms naturally occurring in some vegetables. Iceberg lettuce, white cabbage and Julienne-style cut carrots were subjected to increasing PL fluences up to 12J/cm(2) in order to study its effect on aerobic mesophilic bacteria determined by plate count. Also, sample temperature increase was determined by infrared thermometry. Survivors' curves were adjusted to several models. No shoulder but tail was observed. The Weibull model showed good fitting performance of data. Results for lettuce were: goodness-of-fit parameter RMSE=0.2289, fluence for the first decimal reduction δ=0.98±0.80J/cm(2) and concavity parameter p=0.33±0.08. Results for cabbage were: RMSE=0.0725, δ=0.81±0.23J/cm(2) and p=0.30±0.02; and for carrot: RMSE=0.1235, δ=0.39±0.24J/cm(2) and p=0.23±0.03. For lettuce, a log-linear and tail model was also suitable. Validation of the Weibull model produced determination coefficients of 0.88-0.96 and slopes of 0.78-0.99. Heating was too low to contribute to inactivation. A single low-energy pulse was enough to achieve one log reduction, with an ultrafast treatment time of 0.5ms. While PL efficacy was found to be limited to high residual counts, the achievable inactivation level may be considered useful for shelf-life extension. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automatic Threshold Detector Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-15

Averaging CFAR in Non- Stationary Weibull Clutter, " L. Novak, (1974 IEEE Symposium on Information Theory ). 8. "The Weibull Distribution Applied to the... UGTS (K) ,Kml NPTS) 140 DO 153 K~lvNPT9 IF(SIGCSO(K) .LT.0. )SIOCSO(K).1 .E-50 IF(SIOWSO(K) .LT.0. )SIGWSQ(K)-1 .E-50 IF(SIONSG(K) .LT.O. )SIG3NSQCIO-1.E

A Mixed Kijima Model Using the Weibull-Based Generalized Renewal Processes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Generalized Renewal Processes are useful for approaching the rejuvenation of dynamical systems resulting from planned or unplanned interventions. We present new perspectives for the Generalized Renewal Processes in general and for the Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes in particular. Disregarding from literature, we present a mixed Generalized Renewal Processes approach involving Kijima Type I and II models, allowing one to infer the impact of distinct interventions on the performance of the system under study. The first and second theoretical moments of this model are introduced as well as its maximum likelihood estimation and random sampling approaches. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes model, some real data sets involving improving, stable, and deteriorating systems are used. PMID:26197222

Quadratic RK shooting solution for a environmental parameter prediction boundary value problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Famelis, Ioannis Th.; Tsitouras, Ch.

2014-10-01

Using tools of Information Geometry, the minimum distance between two elements of a statistical manifold is defined by the corresponding geodesic, e.g. the minimum length curve that connects them. Such a curve, where the probability distribution functions in the case of our meteorological data are two parameter Weibull distributions, satisfies a 2nd order Boundary Value (BV) system. We study the numerical treatment of the resulting special quadratic form system using Shooting method. We compare the solutions of the problem when we employ a classical Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge Kutta (SDIRK) 4(3) pair of methods and a quadratic SDIRK 5(3) pair . Both pairs have the same computational costs whereas the second one attains higher order as it is specially constructed for quadratic problems.

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, Steven N.

1992-01-01

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

Slow Crack Growth of Germanium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jon

2016-01-01

The fracture toughness and slow crack growth parameters of germanium supplied as single crystal beams and coarse grain disks were measured. Although germanium is anisotropic (A=1.7), it is not as anisotropic as SiC, NiAl, or Cu, as evidence by consistent fracture toughness on the 100, 110, and 111 planes. Germanium does not exhibit significant slow crack growth in distilled water. (n=100). Practical values for engineering design are a fracture toughness of 0.7 MPam and a Weibull modulus of m=6+/-2. For well ground and reasonable handled coupons, fracture strength should be greater than 30 MPa.

Comparison between a Weibull proportional hazards model and a linear model for predicting the genetic merit of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity.

PubMed

Caraviello, D Z; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D

2004-05-01

Predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity were calculated using a Weibull proportional hazards sire model and compared with predictions from a conventional linear animal model. Culling data from 268,008 Jersey cows with first calving from 1981 to 2000 were used. The proportional hazards model included time-dependent effects of herd-year-season contemporary group and parity by stage of lactation interaction, as well as time-independent effects of sire and age at first calving. Sire variances and parameters of the Weibull distribution were estimated, providing heritability estimates of 4.7% on the log scale and 18.0% on the original scale. The PTA of each sire was expressed as the expected risk of culling relative to daughters of an average sire. Risk ratios (RR) ranged from 0.7 to 1.3, indicating that the risk of culling for daughters of the best sires was 30% lower than for daughters of average sires and nearly 50% lower than than for daughters of the poorest sires. Sire PTA from the proportional hazards model were compared with PTA from a linear model similar to that used for routine national genetic evaluation of length of productive life (PL) using cross-validation in independent samples of herds. Models were compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to second, third, fourth, or fifth lactation on their sires' PTA values, with alternative approaches for weighting the contribution of each sire. Models were also compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 mo of life. The proportional hazards model generally yielded more accurate predictions according to these criteria, but differences in predictive ability between methods were smaller when using a Kullback-Leibler distance than with other approaches. Results of this study suggest that survival analysis methodology may provide more accurate predictions of genetic merit for longevity than conventional linear models.

CRACK GROWTH ANALYSIS OF SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL ELECTROLYTES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. Bandopadhyay; N. Nagabhushana

2003-10-01

Defects and Flaws control the structural and functional property of ceramics. In determining the reliability and lifetime of ceramics structures it is very important to quantify the crack growth behavior of the ceramics. In addition, because of the high variability of the strength and the relatively low toughness of ceramics, a statistical design approach is necessary. The statistical nature of the strength of ceramics is currently well recognized, and is usually accounted for by utilizing Weibull or similar statistical distributions. Design tools such as CARES using a combination of strength measurements, stress analysis, and statistics are available and reasonably wellmore » developed. These design codes also incorporate material data such as elastic constants as well as flaw distributions and time-dependent properties. The fast fracture reliability for ceramics is often different from their time-dependent reliability. Further confounding the design complexity, the time-dependent reliability varies with the environment/temperature/stress combination. Therefore, it becomes important to be able to accurately determine the behavior of ceramics under simulated application conditions to provide a better prediction of the lifetime and reliability for a given component. In the present study, Yttria stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) of 9.6 mol% Yttria composition was procured in the form of tubes of length 100 mm. The composition is of interest as tubular electrolytes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. Rings cut from the tubes were characterized for microstructure, phase stability, mechanical strength (Weibull modulus) and fracture mechanisms. The strength at operating condition of SOFCs (1000 C) decreased to 95 MPa as compared to room temperature strength of 230 MPa. However, the Weibull modulus remains relatively unchanged. Slow crack growth (SCG) parameter, n = 17 evaluated at room temperature in air was representative of well studied brittle materials. Based on the results, further work was planned to evaluate the strength degradation, modulus and failure in more representative environment of the SOFCs.« less

Impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the performance of a relay-assisted free-space optical communication system over exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian; Fu, Huihua; Wang, Ranran; Guo, Lixin

2016-09-20

The impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the system performance of decode-and-forward protocol-based multihop parallel optical wireless communication systems is studied. For the aggregated fading channel, the atmospheric turbulence is simulated by an exponentiated Weibull model, and pointing errors are described by one recently proposed statistical model including both boresight and jitter. The binary phase-shift keying subcarrier intensity modulation-based analytical average bit error rate (ABER) and outage probability expressions are achieved for a nonidentically and independently distributed system. The ABER and outage probability are then analyzed with different turbulence strengths, receiving aperture sizes, structure parameters (P and Q), jitter variances, and boresight displacements. The results show that aperture averaging offers almost the same system performance improvement with boresight included or not, despite the values of P and Q. The performance enhancement owing to the increase of cooperative path (P) is more evident with nonzero boresight than that with zero boresight (jitter only), whereas the performance deterioration because of the increasing hops (Q) with nonzero boresight is almost the same as that with zero boresight. Monte Carlo simulation is offered to verify the validity of ABER and outage probability expressions.

Adaptive Weibull Multiplicative Model and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks for Dark-Spot Detection from SAR Imagery

PubMed Central

Taravat, Alireza; Oppelt, Natascha

2014-01-01

Oil spills represent a major threat to ocean ecosystems and their environmental status. Previous studies have shown that Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), as its recording is independent of clouds and weather, can be effectively used for the detection and classification of oil spills. Dark formation detection is the first and critical stage in oil-spill detection procedures. In this paper, a novel approach for automated dark-spot detection in SAR imagery is presented. A new approach from the combination of adaptive Weibull Multiplicative Model (WMM) and MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) neural networks is proposed to differentiate between dark spots and the background. The results have been compared with the results of a model combining non-adaptive WMM and pulse coupled neural networks. The presented approach overcomes the non-adaptive WMM filter setting parameters by developing an adaptive WMM model which is a step ahead towards a full automatic dark spot detection. The proposed approach was tested on 60 ENVISAT and ERS2 images which contained dark spots. For the overall dataset, an average accuracy of 94.65% was obtained. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very robust and effective where the non-adaptive WMM & pulse coupled neural network (PCNN) model generates poor accuracies. PMID:25474376

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning.

PubMed

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-06-29

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images' spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines.

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

On the q-type distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadarajah, Saralees; Kotz, Samuel

2007-04-01

Various q-type distributions have appeared in the physics literature in the recent years, see e.g. L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236 (1997) 52-57. It is pointed out in the paper that many of these are the same as or particular cases of what has been known in the statistics literature. Several of these statistical distributions are discussed and references provided. We feel that this paper could be of assistance for modeling problems of the type considered by L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236 (1997) 52-57 and others.

Thermal Inactivation Kinetics of Human Norovirus Surrogates and Hepatitis A Virus in Turkey Deli Meat.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2015-07-01

Human noroviruses (HNoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) have been implicated in outbreaks linked to the consumption of presliced ready-to-eat deli meats. The objectives of this research were to determine the thermal inactivation kinetics of HNoV surrogates (murine norovirus 1 [MNV-1] and feline calicivirus strain F9 [FCV-F9]) and HAV in turkey deli meat, compare first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, and calculate Arrhenius activation energy values for each model. The D (decimal reduction time) values in the temperature range of 50 to 72°C calculated from the first-order model were 0.1 ± 0.0 to 9.9 ± 3.9 min for FCV-F9, 0.2 ± 0.0 to 21.0 ± 0.8 min for MNV-1, and 1.0 ± 0.1 to 42.0 ± 5.6 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the tD = 1 (time to destroy 1 log) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV at the same temperatures ranged from 0.1 ± 0.0 to 11.9 ± 5.1 min, from 0.3 ± 0.1 to 17.8 ± 1.8 min, and from 0.6 ± 0.3 to 25.9 ± 3.7 min, respectively. The z (thermal resistance) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 11.3 ± 2.1°C, 11.0 ± 1.6°C, and 13.4 ± 2.6°C, respectively, using the Weibull model. The z values using the first-order model were 11.9 ± 1.0°C, 10.9 ± 1.3°C, and 12.8 ± 1.7°C for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV, respectively. For the Weibull model, estimated activation energies for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 214 ± 28, 242 ± 36, and 154 ± 19 kJ/mole, respectively, while the calculated activation energies for the first-order model were 181 ± 16, 196 ± 5, and 167 ± 9 kJ/mole, respectively. Precise information on the thermal inactivation of HNoV surrogates and HAV in turkey deli meat was generated. This provided calculations of parameters for more-reliable thermal processes to inactivate viruses in contaminated presliced ready-to-eat deli meats and thus to reduce the risk of foodborne illness outbreaks. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Thermal Inactivation Kinetics of Human Norovirus Surrogates and Hepatitis A Virus in Turkey Deli Meat

PubMed Central

Bozkurt, Hayriye; Davidson, P. Michael

2015-01-01

Human noroviruses (HNoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) have been implicated in outbreaks linked to the consumption of presliced ready-to-eat deli meats. The objectives of this research were to determine the thermal inactivation kinetics of HNoV surrogates (murine norovirus 1 [MNV-1] and feline calicivirus strain F9 [FCV-F9]) and HAV in turkey deli meat, compare first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, and calculate Arrhenius activation energy values for each model. The D (decimal reduction time) values in the temperature range of 50 to 72°C calculated from the first-order model were 0.1 ± 0.0 to 9.9 ± 3.9 min for FCV-F9, 0.2 ± 0.0 to 21.0 ± 0.8 min for MNV-1, and 1.0 ± 0.1 to 42.0 ± 5.6 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the tD = 1 (time to destroy 1 log) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV at the same temperatures ranged from 0.1 ± 0.0 to 11.9 ± 5.1 min, from 0.3 ± 0.1 to 17.8 ± 1.8 min, and from 0.6 ± 0.3 to 25.9 ± 3.7 min, respectively. The z (thermal resistance) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 11.3 ± 2.1°C, 11.0 ± 1.6°C, and 13.4 ± 2.6°C, respectively, using the Weibull model. The z values using the first-order model were 11.9 ± 1.0°C, 10.9 ± 1.3°C, and 12.8 ± 1.7°C for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV, respectively. For the Weibull model, estimated activation energies for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 214 ± 28, 242 ± 36, and 154 ± 19 kJ/mole, respectively, while the calculated activation energies for the first-order model were 181 ± 16, 196 ± 5, and 167 ± 9 kJ/mole, respectively. Precise information on the thermal inactivation of HNoV surrogates and HAV in turkey deli meat was generated. This provided calculations of parameters for more-reliable thermal processes to inactivate viruses in contaminated presliced ready-to-eat deli meats and thus to reduce the risk of foodborne illness outbreaks. PMID:25956775

Predicting the mechanical properties of brittle porous materials with various porosity and pore sizes.

PubMed

Cui, Zhiwei; Huang, Yongmin; Liu, Honglai

2017-07-01

In this work, a micromechanical study using the lattice spring model (LSM) was performed to predict the mechanical properties of BPMs by simulation of the Brazilian test. Stress-strain curve and Weibull plot were analyzed for the determination of fracture strength and Weibull modulus. The presented model composed of linear elastic elements is capable of reproducing the non-linear behavior of BPMs resulting from the damage accumulation and provides consistent results which are in agreement with experimental measurements. Besides, it is also found that porosity shows significant impact on fracture strength while pore size dominates the Weibull modulus, which enables us to establish how choices made in the microstructure to meet the demand of brittle porous materials functioning in various operating conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-Dimensional Analysis of Voids in AM60B Magnesium Tensile Bars Using Computed Tomography Imagery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waters, A M

2001-05-01

In an effort to increase automobile fuel efficiency as well as decrease the output of harmful greenhouse gases, the automotive industry has recently shown increased interest in cast light metals such as magnesium alloys in an effort to increase weight savings. Currently several magnesium alloys such as AZ91 and AM60B are being used in structural applications for automobiles. However, these magnesium alloys are not as well characterized as other commonly used structural metals such as aluminum. This dissertation presents a methodology to nondestructively quantify damage accumulation due to void behavior in three dimensions in die-cast magnesium AM60B tensile bars asmore » a function of mechanical load. Computed tomography data was acquired after tensile bars were loaded up to and including failure, and analyzed to characterize void behavior as it relates to damage accumulation. Signal and image processing techniques were used along with a cluster labeling routine to nondestructively quantify damage parameters in three dimensions. Void analyses were performed including void volume distribution characterization, nearest neighbor distance calculations, shape parameters, and volumetric renderings of voids in the alloy. The processed CT data was used to generate input files for use in finite element simulations, both two- and three-dimensional. The void analyses revealed that the overwhelming source of failure in each tensile bar was a ring of porosity within each bar, possibly due to a solidification front inherent to the casting process. The measured damage parameters related to void nucleation, growth, and coalescence were shown to contribute significantly to total damage accumulation. Void volume distributions were characterized using a Weibull function, and the spatial distributions of voids were shown to be clustered. Two-dimensional finite element analyses of the tensile bars were used to fine-tune material damage models and a three-dimensional mesh of an extracted portion of one tensile bar including voids was generated from CT data and used as input to a finite element analysis.« less

Zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® roadmap for advanced lithography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhoff, Thomas; Jedamzik, Ralf; Hartmann, Peter

2013-04-01

The zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® is a well-established material in microlithography in critical components as wafer- and reticle-stages, mirrors and frames in the stepper positioning and alignment system. The very low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and its extremely high CTE homogeneity are key properties to achieve the tight overlay requirements of advanced lithography processes. SCHOTT is continuously improving critical material properties of ZERODUR® essential for microlithography applications according to a roadmap driven by the ever tighter material specifications broken down from the customer roadmaps. This paper will present the SCHOTT Roadmap for ZERODUR® material property development. In the recent years SCHOTT established a physical model based on structural relaxation to describe the coefficient of thermal expansion's temperature dependence. The model is successfully applied for the new expansion grade ZERODUR® TAILORED introduced to the market in 2012. ZERODUR® TAILORED delivers the lowest thermal expansion of ZERODUR® products at microlithography tool application temperature allowing for higher thermal stability for tighter overlay control in IC production. Data will be reported demonstrating the unique CTE homogeneity of ZERODUR® and its very high reproducibility, a necessary precondition for serial production for microlithography equipment components. New data on the bending strength of ZERODUR® proves its capability to withstand much higher mechanical loads than previously reported. Utilizing a three parameter Weibull distribution it is possible to derive minimum strength values for a given ZERODUR® surface treatment. Consequently the statistical uncertainties of the earlier approach based on a two parameter Weibull distribution have been eliminated. Mechanical fatigue due to stress corrosion was included in a straightforward way. The derived formulae allows calculating life time of ZERODUR® components for a given stress load or the allowable maximum stress for a minimum required life time.

ZERODUR®: new stress corrosion data improve strength fatigue prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter; Kleer, Günter; Rist, Tobias

2015-09-01

The extremely low thermal expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® finds more and more applications as sophisticated light weight structures with thin ribs or as thin shells. Quite often they will be subject to higher mechanical loads such as rocket launches or modulating wobbling vibrations. Designing such structures requires calculation methods and data taking into account their long term fatigue. With brittle materials fatigue is not only given by the material itself but to a high extent also by its surface condition and the environmental media especially humidity. This work extends the latest data and information gathered on the bending strength of ZERODUR® with new results concerning its long term behavior under tensile stress. The parameter needed for prediction calculations which combines the influences of time and environmental media is the stress corrosion constant n. Results of the past differ significantly from each other. In order to obtain consistent data the stress corrosion constant has been measured with the method comparing the breakage statistical distributions at different stress increase rates. For better significance the stress increase rate was varied over four orders of magnitude from 0.004 MPa/s to 40 MPa/s. Experiments were performed under normal humidity for long term earth bound applications and under nitrogen atmosphere as equivalent to dry environment occurring for example with telescopes in deserts and also equivalent to vacuum for space applications. As shown earlier the bending strength of diamond ground surfaces of ZERODUR® can be represented with a three parameter Weibull distribution. Predictions on the long term strength change of ZERODUR® structures under tensile stress are possible with reduced uncertainty if Weibull threshold strength values are considered and more reliable stress corrosion constant data are applied.

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

2004-01-01

Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).

Program For Evaluation Of Reliability Of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, N.; Janosik, L. A.; Gyekenyesi, J. P.; Powers, Lynn M.

1996-01-01

CARES/LIFE predicts probability of failure of monolithic ceramic component as function of service time. Assesses risk that component fractures prematurely as result of subcritical crack growth (SCG). Effect of proof testing of components prior to service also considered. Coupled to such commercially available finite-element programs as ANSYS, ABAQUS, MARC, MSC/NASTRAN, and COSMOS/M. Also retains all capabilities of previous CARES code, which includes estimation of fast-fracture component reliability and Weibull parameters from inert strength (without SCG contributing to failure) specimen data. Estimates parameters that characterize SCG from specimen data as well. Written in ANSI FORTRAN 77 to be machine-independent. Program runs on any computer in which sufficient addressable memory (at least 8MB) and FORTRAN 77 compiler available. For IBM-compatible personal computer with minimum 640K memory, limited program available (CARES/PC, COSMIC number LEW-15248).

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, J. T.

1990-01-01

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

A Focus on the Death Kinetics in Predictive Microbiology: Benefits and Limits of the Most Important Models and Some Tools Dealing with Their Application in Foods

PubMed Central

Bevilacqua, Antonio; Speranza, Barbara; Sinigaglia, Milena; Corbo, Maria Rosaria

2015-01-01

Predictive Microbiology (PM) deals with the mathematical modeling of microorganisms in foods for different applications (challenge test, evaluation of microbiological shelf life, prediction of the microbiological hazards connected with foods, etc.). An interesting and important part of PM focuses on the use of primary functions to fit data of death kinetics of spoilage, pathogenic, and useful microorganisms following thermal or non-conventional treatments and can also be used to model survivors throughout storage. The main topic of this review is a focus on the most important death models (negative Gompertz, log-linear, shoulder/tail, Weibull, Weibull+tail, re-parameterized Weibull, biphasic approach, etc.) to pinpoint the benefits and the limits of each model; in addition, the last section addresses the most important tools for the use of death kinetics and predictive microbiology in a user-friendly way. PMID:28231222

Mechanical behavior of a Y-TZP ceramic for monolithic restorations: effect of grinding and low-temperature aging.

PubMed

Pereira, G K R; Silvestri, T; Camargo, R; Rippe, M P; Amaral, M; Kleverlaan, C J; Valandro, L F

2016-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of grinding with diamond burs and low-temperature aging on the mechanical behavior (biaxial flexural strength and structural reliability), surface topography, and phase transformation of a Y-TZP ceramic for monolithic dental restorations. Disc-shaped specimens (Zirlux FC, Ivoclar Vivadent) were manufactured according to ISO 6872 (2008) and divided in accordance with two factors: "grinding - 3 levels" and "LTD - 2 levels". Grinding was performed using a contra-angle handpiece under constant water-cooling with different grit-sizes (extra-fine and coarse diamond burs). LTD was simulated in an autoclave at 134°C, under a pressure of 2 bar, over a period of 20h. Surface topography analysis showed an increase in roughness based on surface treatment grit-size (Coarse>Xfine>Ctrl), LTD did not influence roughness values. Both grinding and LTD promoted an increase in the amount of m-phase, although different susceptibilities to degradation were observed. According to existing literature the increase of m-phase content is a direct indicative of Y-TZP degradation. Weibull analysis showed an increase in characteristic strength after grinding (Coarse=Xfine>Ctrl), while for LTD, distinct effects were observed (Ctrl

Mechanical reliability, fatigue strength and survival analysis of new polycrystalline translucent zirconia ceramics for monolithic restorations.

PubMed

Pereira, Gabriel K R; Guilardi, Luís F; Dapieve, Kiara S; Kleverlaan, Cornelis J; Rippe, Marília P; Valandro, Luiz Felipe

2018-05-23

This study characterized the mechanical properties (static and under fatigue), the crystalline microstructure (monoclinic - m, tetragonal - t and cubic - c phase contents) and the surface topography of three yttrium-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) materials with different translucent properties, before and after aging in an autoclave (low temperature degradation). Disc-shaped specimens were produced from second generation (Katana ML/HT - high-translucent) and third generations (Katana STML - super-translucent and UTML - ultra-translucent) YSZ ceramics (Kuraray Noritake Dental Inc.), following ISO 6872-2015 guidelines for biaxial flexural strength testing (final dimensions: 15 mm in diameter and 1.2 ± 0.2 mm in thickness), and then subjected to the respective tests and analyses. ML was mainly composed of tetragonal crystals, while STML and UTML presented cubic content. Aging increased the monoclinic content for ML and did not affect STML and UTML. Topographical analysis highlights different grain sizes on the ceramic surface (UTML > STML > ML) and aging had no effect on this outcome. Weibull analysis showed the highest characteristic strength for ML both before and after aging, and statistically similar Weibull moduli for all groups. ML material also obtained the highest survival rates (ML > STML > UTML) for both fatigue strength and number of cycles to failure. All fractures originated from surface defects on the tensile side. Third generation zirconia (Katana STML and UTML) are fully stabilized materials (with tetragonal and cubic crystals), being totally inert to the autoclave aging, and presented lower mechanical properties than the second-generation zirconia (Katana ML - metastable zirconia). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanical and interfacial characterization of laser welded Co-Cr alloy with different joint configurations

PubMed Central

Kokolis, John; Chakmakchi, Makdad; Theocharopoulos, Antonios; Prombonas, Anthony

2015-01-01

PURPOSE The mechanical and interfacial characterization of laser welded Co-Cr alloy with two different joint designs. MATERIALS AND METHODS Dumbbell cast specimens (n=30) were divided into 3 groups (R, I, K, n=10). Group R consisted of intact specimens, group I of specimens sectioned with a straight cut, and group K of specimens with a 45° bevel made at the one welding edge. The microstructure and the elemental distributions of alloy and welding regions were examined by an SEM/EDX analysis and then specimens were loaded in tension up to fracture. The tensile strength (TS) and elongation (ε) were determined and statistically compared among groups employing 1-way ANOVA, SNK multiple comparison test (α=.05) and Weibull analysis where Weibull modulus m and characteristic strength σο were identified. Fractured surfaces were imaged by a SEM. RESULTS SEM/EDX analysis showed that cast alloy consists of two phases with differences in mean atomic number contrast, while no mean atomic number was identified for welded regions. EDX analysis revealed an increased Cr and Mo content at the alloy-joint interface. All mechanical properties of group I (TS, ε, m and σο) were found inferior to R while group K showed intermediated values without significant differences to R and I, apart from elongation with group R. The fractured surfaces of all groups showed extensive dendritic pattern although with a finer structure in the case of welded groups. CONCLUSION The K shape joint configuration should be preferred over the I, as it demonstrates improved mechanical strength and survival probability. PMID:25722836

Probabilistic structural analysis of a truss typical for space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.

1990-01-01

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated using the computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) to identify and quantify the uncertainties and respective sensitivities associated with corresponding uncertainties in the primitive variables (structural, material, and loads parameters) that defines the truss. The distribution of each of these primitive variables is described in terms of one of several available distributions such as the Weibull, exponential, normal, log-normal, etc. The cumulative distribution function (CDF's) for the response functions considered and sensitivities associated with the primitive variables for given response are investigated. These sensitivities help in determining the dominating primitive variables for that response.

Stereolithography: A new method for processing dental ceramics by additive computer-aided manufacturing.

PubMed

Dehurtevent, Marion; Robberecht, Lieven; Hornez, Jean-Christophe; Thuault, Anthony; Deveaux, Etienne; Béhin, Pascal

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the physical and mechanical properties of stereolithography (SLA)- manufactured alumina ceramics of different composition to those of subtractive- manufactured ceramics and to produce suitable dental crown frameworks. The physical and mechanical properties of a control and six experimental SLA ceramics prepared from slurries with small (S) and large (L) particles (0.46±0.03 and 1.56±0.04μm, respectively) and three dry matter contents (70%, 75%, 80%) were evaluated by dynamic rheometry, hydrostatic weighing, three3-point flexural strength measurements, and Weibull analyses, and by the micrometrics measurement of shrinkage ratio before and after the heat treatments. S75 was the only small particle slurry with a significantly higher viscosity than L70. The viscosity of the S80 slurry made it impossible to take rheological measurements. The viscosities of the S75 and S80 slurries caused deformations in the printed layers during SLA manufacturing and were excluded from further consideration. SLA samples with low dry matter content had significantly lower and densityflexural strengths. Only SLA samples with a large particle size and high dry matter content (L75 and L80) were similar in density and flexural strength to the subtractive- manufactured samples. The 95% confidence intervals of the Weibull modulus of the L80 ceramic were higher (no overlap fraction) than those of the L75 ceramic and were similar to the control (overlap fraction). The Weibull characteristics of L80 ceramic were higher than those of L75 ceramic and the control. SLA can be used to process suitable crown frameworks but shows results in anisotropic shrinkage. The hH High particle size and dry matter content of the L80 slurry allowed made it possible to produce a reliable ceramic by SLA manufacturing with an anisotropic shrinkage, and a density, and flexural strength similar to those of a subtractive-manufactured ceramic. SLA allowed made it possible to build up a dense 3D alumina crown framework with controlled shape. Further studies on the marginal adaptation and shrinkage model of alumina crown frameworks will be required to optimize the process. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crack Growth Testing of an Aluminum Oxynitride (AlON) for International Space Station Kick Panes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.

2017-01-01

The mechanical properties of an aluminum oxynitride supplied as ground beams and disks were measured using ASTM International (formerly American Society for Testing and Materials) standard test methods. The slow crack growth tests were complicated by a "short" finish that increased strength scatter. Refining of the finish by more material removal in the second stage of grinding or the use of uniaxial grinding as specified in ASTM C1499 might have avoided the issue. The structural design parameters are an elastic modulus of E = 319 GPa, Poisson's ratio of v = 0.26, a fracture toughness of KIvb(A) = 2.18 MPa/m, slow crack growth (SCG) parameter n = 36, and SCG parameter A = 1.96 x 10-11 m/s.(MPa/m)n. For a ground finish, the Weibull parameters are a mean modulus of m = 14.0 and characteristic strength of ?sigma theta = 250.2 MPa. The 2015 vintage material exhibits similar mechanical properties to a 2010 vintage billet. Indentation flaws were not sensitive to the inherent crack growth mechanisms of this material and produced misleading results.

Edible antimicrobial films based on microencapsulated lemongrass oil.

PubMed

Bustos C, Rubén O; Alberti R, Francesca V; Matiacevich, Silvia B

2016-01-01

Edible films and coatings have been proposed as viable alternatives for the preservation of fresh food such as fruit, meat, fish and cheese. They can be designed to contain natural antioxidants, vitamins and antimicrobials in order to extend shelf life of the product keeping the natural sensorial properties. Essential oils have been targeted as potential active principles for edible films and coatings given their well-recognized antioxidant, antimicrobial and sensory properties. In the present work, lemongrass oil (LMO) microcapsules were prepared by the emulsification-separation method using sodium caseinate as wall material. Microcapsules had an average size of 22 μm and contained over 51 % oil in their nucleus. The release kinetics of the LMO components was studied for both, microcapsules and microcapsule containing films. Experimental data for the controlled release of LMO components showed good correlation with Peppas and Weibull models. The effect of the alginate matrix on the release parameters of the mathematical models could be detected by the modification of the b constant of the Weibull equation which changed from 0.167 for the microcapsules to 0.351 for the films. Films containing LMO at concentrations of 1250, 2500 and 5000 ppm were able to inhibit growth of Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 and Listeria monocytogenes ISP 65-08 in liquid cultures. A possible future application of these films for shelf life extension of fresh food is discussed.

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning

PubMed Central

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-01-01

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images’ spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines. PMID:27367703

On the performance of dual-hop mixed RF/FSO wireless communication system in urban area over aggregated exponentiated Weibull fading channels with pointing errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yue; Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian

2018-03-01

The performance of decode-and-forward dual-hop mixed radio frequency / free-space optical system in urban area is studied. The RF link is modeled by the Nakagami-m distribution and the FSO link is described by the composite exponentiated Weibull (EW) fading channels with nonzero boresight pointing errors (NBPE). For comparison, the ABER results without pointing errors (PE) and those with zero boresight pointing errors (ZBPE) are also provided. The closed-form expression for the average bit error rate (ABER) in RF link is derived with the help of hypergeometric function, and that in FSO link is obtained by Meijer's G and generalized Gauss-Laguerre quadrature functions. Then, the end-to-end ABERs with binary phase shift keying modulation are achieved on the basis of the computed ABER results of RF and FSO links. The end-to-end ABER performance is further analyzed with different Nakagami-m parameters, turbulence strengths, receiver aperture sizes and boresight displacements. The result shows that with ZBPE and NBPE considered, FSO link suffers a severe ABER degradation and becomes the dominant limitation of the mixed RF/FSO system in urban area. However, aperture averaging can bring significant ABER improvement of this system. Monte Carlo simulation is provided to confirm the validity of the analytical ABER expressions.

Suspension thermal spraying of hydroxyapatite: microstructure and in vitro behaviour.

PubMed

Bolelli, Giovanni; Bellucci, Devis; Cannillo, Valeria; Lusvarghi, Luca; Sola, Antonella; Stiegler, Nico; Müller, Philipp; Killinger, Andreas; Gadow, Rainer; Altomare, Lina; De Nardo, Luigi

2014-01-01

In cementless fixation of metallic prostheses, bony ingrowth onto the implant surface is often promoted by osteoconductive plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite coatings. The present work explores the use of the innovative High Velocity Suspension Flame Spraying (HVSFS) process to coat Ti substrates with thin homogeneous hydroxyapatite coatings. The HVSFS hydroxyapatite coatings studied were dense, 27-37μm thick, with some transverse microcracks. Lamellae were sintered together and nearly unidentifiable, unlike conventional plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite. Crystallinities of 10%-70% were obtained, depending on the deposition parameters and the use of a TiO2 bond coat. The average hardness of layers with low (<24%) and high (70%) crystallinity was ≈3.5GPa and ≈4.5GPa respectively. The distributions of hardness values, all characterised by Weibull modulus in the 5-7 range, were narrower than that of conventional plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite, with a Weibull modulus of ≈3.3. During soaking in simulated body fluid, glassy coatings were progressively resorbed and replaced by a new, precipitated hydroxyapatite layer, whereas coatings with 70% crystallinity were stable up to 14days of immersion. The interpretation of the precipitation behaviour was also assisted by surface charge assessments, performed through Z-potential measurements. During in vitro tests, HA coatings showed no cytotoxicity towards the SAOS-2 osteoblast cell line, and surface cell proliferation was comparable with proliferation on reference polystyrene culture plates. © 2013.

Likelihood inference for COM-Poisson cure rate model with interval-censored data and Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N

2017-10-01

In this paper, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the number of competing causes to follow a Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution which can capture both over and under dispersion that is usually encountered in discrete data. Assuming the population of interest having a component cure and the form of the data to be interval censored, as opposed to the usually considered right-censored data, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of the flexible Conway-Maxwell Poisson cure rate model with Weibull lifetimes. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution is addressed using the likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria to select a suitable competing cause distribution that provides the best fit to the data. A simulation study is also carried out to demonstrate the loss in efficiency when selecting an improper competing cause distribution which justifies the use of a flexible family of distributions for the number of competing causes. Finally, the proposed methodology and the flexibility of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution are illustrated with two known data sets from the literature: smoking cessation data and breast cosmesis data.

Coercivity mechanisms and thermal stability of thin film magnetic recording media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Cheng

1999-09-01

Coercivity mechanisms and thermal stability of magnetic recording media were studied. It was found that magnetization reversal mainly occurs by nucleation mechanism. The correlation was established between the c/ a ratio of Co HCP structure and other process parameters that are thought to be the dominant factors in determining the anisotropy and therefore the coercivity of Co based thin film magnetic recording media. Time decay and switching of the magnetization in thin film magnetic recording media depend on the grain size distribution and easy-axis orientation distribution according to the proposed two- energy-level model. Relaxation time is the most fundamental parameter that determines the time decay performance of the magnetic recording media. An algorithm was proposed to calculate its distribution directly from the experimental data without any presumption. It was found for the first time that the distribution of relaxation time takes the form of Weibull distribution.

High-Temperature Slow Crack Growth of Silicon Carbide Determined by Constant-Stress-Rate and Constant-Stress Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung H.; Salem, J. A.; Nemeth, N. N.

1998-01-01

High-temperature slow-crack-growth behaviour of hot-pressed silicon carbide was determined using both constant-stress-rate ("dynamic fatigue") and constant-stress ("static fatigue") testing in flexure at 1300 C in air. Slow crack growth was found to be a governing mechanism associated with failure of the material. Four estimation methods such as the individual data, the Weibull median, the arithmetic mean and the median deviation methods were used to determine the slow crack growth parameters. The four estimation methods were in good agreement for the constant-stress-rate testing with a small variation in the slow-crack-growth parameter, n, ranging from 28 to 36. By contrast, the variation in n between the four estimation methods was significant in the constant-stress testing with a somewhat wide range of n= 16 to 32.

Probability distribution functions for unit hydrographs with optimization using genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Singh, Vijay P.; Sivakumar, Bellie; H. Kashani, Mahsa; Atre, Atul Arvind; Asadi, Hakimeh

2017-05-01

A unit hydrograph (UH) of a watershed may be viewed as the unit pulse response function of a linear system. In recent years, the use of probability distribution functions (pdfs) for determining a UH has received much attention. In this study, a nonlinear optimization model is developed to transmute a UH into a pdf. The potential of six popular pdfs, namely two-parameter gamma, two-parameter Gumbel, two-parameter log-normal, two-parameter normal, three-parameter Pearson distribution, and two-parameter Weibull is tested on data from the Lighvan catchment in Iran. The probability distribution parameters are determined using the nonlinear least squares optimization method in two ways: (1) optimization by programming in Mathematica; and (2) optimization by applying genetic algorithm. The results are compared with those obtained by the traditional linear least squares method. The results show comparable capability and performance of two nonlinear methods. The gamma and Pearson distributions are the most successful models in preserving the rising and recession limbs of the unit hydographs. The log-normal distribution has a high ability in predicting both the peak flow and time to peak of the unit hydrograph. The nonlinear optimization method does not outperform the linear least squares method in determining the UH (especially for excess rainfall of one pulse), but is comparable.

Modeling the survival of Salmonella spp. in chorizos.

PubMed

Hajmeer, M; Basheer, I; Hew, C; Cliver, D O

2006-03-01

The survival of Salmonella spp. in chorizos has been studied under the effect of storage conditions; namely temperature (T=6, 25, 30 degrees C), air inflow velocity (F=0, 28.4 m/min), and initial water activity (a(w0)=0.85, 0.90, 0.93, 0.95, 0.97). The pH was held at 5.0. A total of 20 survival curves were experimentally obtained at various combinations of operating conditions. The chorizos were stored under four conditions: in the refrigerator (Ref: T=6 degrees C, F=0 m/min), at room temperature (RT: T=25 degrees C, F=0 m/min), in the hood (Hd: T=25 degrees C, F=28.4 m/min), and in the incubator (Inc: T=30 degrees C, F=0 m/min). Semi-logarithmic plots of counts vs. time revealed nonlinear trends for all the survival curves, indicating that the first-order kinetics model (exponential distribution function) was not suitable. The Weibull cumulative distribution function, for which the exponential function is only a special case, was selected and used to model the survival curves. The Weibull model was fitted to the 20 curves and the model parameters (alpha and beta) were determined. The fitted survival curves agreed with the experimental data with R(2)=0.951, 0.969, 0.908, and 0.871 for the Ref, RT, Hd, and Inc curves, respectively. Regression models relating alpha and beta to T, F, and a(w0) resulted in R(2) values of 0.975 for alpha and 0.988 for beta. The alpha and beta models can be used to generate a survival curve for Salmonella in chorizos for a given set of operating conditions. Additionally, alpha and beta can be used to determine the times needed to reduce the count by 1 or 2 logs t(1D) and t(2D). It is concluded that the Weibull cumulative distribution function offers a powerful model for describing microbial survival data. A comparison with the pathogen modeling program (PMP) revealed that the survival kinetics of Salmonella spp. in chorizos could not be adequately predicted using PMP which underestimated the t(1D) and t(2D). The mean of the Weibull probability density function correlated strongly with t(1D) and t(2D), and can serve as an alternative to the D-values normally used with first-order kinetic models. Parametric studies were conducted and sensitivity of survival to operating conditions was evaluated and discussed in the paper. The models derived herein provide a means for the development of a reliable risk assessment system for controlling Salmonella spp. in chorizos.

Modeling demographic response to constant temperature in Hypera postica (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

PubMed

Zahiri, Babak; Fathipour, Yaghoub; Khanjani, Mohammad; Moharramipour, Saeid; Zalucki, Myron P

2010-04-01

Alfalfa weevil, Hypera postica (Gyllenhal) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is among the most destructive pests of alfalfa, Medicago sativa L., in the world. Survivorship and fecundity schedules of H. postica were investigated to characterize the population growth potential of the weevil at six constant temperatures: 11.5, 14.0, 19.0, 24.0, 29.0, and 31.5 degrees C. Preoviposition period, oviposition period and female longevity significantly decreased with rising temperature within the temperature range tested. At the respective temperatures adult female lived an average of 294.2, 230.2, 163.6, 141.0, 84.10, and 32.9 d, with average lifetime progeny production of 470, 814, 2209, 3619, 2656, and 338 eggs per female. The net reproductive rates (R0) were 86.9, 288.0, 869.7, 1,479.7, 989.8, and 107.8 females per female, respectively. Mean daily fecundity (Mx) was modeled as a function of time by using both Enkegaard and Analytis models. Survivorship data (l(x)) of adult females were summarized and compared using the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull frequency distribution model across the temperature range tested. Life table entropy values within the range 14.0-31.5 degrees C (H < 0.5) indicates Slobodkin's type I survivorship curve; however, the value of 0.806 at 11.5 degrees C (H > 0.5) corresponds to type III. As temperature increased, the r(m) exhibited an asymmetrical dome-shaped pattern, with a maximum value of 0.114 females per female per d at 29.0 degrees C. The r(m)-temperature relation of weevils was modeled and critical temperatures (T(Min), T(Opt), and T(Max)) for intrinsic rate of increase of the weevil were computed as 8.83, 30.61, and 32.14 degrees C and 5.72, 29.94, and 32.12 degrees C by using Analytis/Allahyari and Analytis/Briere-2 models, respectively.

Hydrogen peroxide bleaching induces changes in the physical properties of dental restorative materials: Effects of study protocols.

PubMed

Yu, Hao; Zhang, Chang-Yuan; Wang, Yi-Ning; Cheng, Hui

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of study protocols on the effects of bleaching on the surface roughness, substance loss, flexural strength (FS), flexural modulus (FM), Weibull parameters, and color of 7 restorative materials. The test materials included 4 composite resins, 1 glass-ionomer cement, 1 dental ceramic, and 1 polyacid-modified composite. The specimens were randomly divided into 4 groups (n = 20) according to different study protocols: a bleaching group at 25°C (group 25B), a bleaching group at 37°C (group 37B), a control group at 25°C (group 25C), and a control group at 37°C (group 37C). The specimens in the bleaching group were treated with 40% hydrogen peroxide for 80 min at the respective environmental temperatures. The surface roughness, substance loss, FS, FM, and color of the specimens were measured before and after treatment. FS data were also subjected to Weibull analysis, which was used to estimate of the Weibull modulus (m) and the characteristic strength (σ 0 ). Surface roughness increased and significant color changes were observed for all tested specimens after bleaching treatment, except for the ceramic. After bleaching at 37°C, the polyacid-modified composite showed significantly reduced FS, FM, m, and σ 0 values in comparison to the control specimens stored at 37°C in whole saliva. Significant differences were also found between the 37B and 25B polyacid-modified composite groups in terms of surface roughness, FS, m, σ 0 , and color changes. Varying effects of bleaching on the physical properties of dental restorative materials were observed, and the influences of the study protocols on bleaching effects were found to be material-dependent. The influence of study protocols on the effects of bleaching on the surface roughness, flexural properties, and color of dental restorative materials are material-dependent and should be considered when evaluating the effects of bleaching on dental restorative materials. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district, Japan: reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology, plate tectonics, tsunami study, micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rikitake, T.

1999-03-01

In light of newly-acquired geophysical information about earthquake generation in the Tokai area, Central Japan, where occurrence of a great earthquake of magnitude 8 or so has recently been feared, probabilities of earthquake occurrence in the near future are reevaluated. Much of the data used for evaluation here relies on recently-developed paleoseismology, tsunami study and GPS geodesy.The new Weibull distribution analysis of recurrence tendency of great earthquakes in the Tokai-Nankai zone indicates that the mean return period of great earthquakes there is estimated as 109 yr with a standard deviation amounting to 33 yr. These values do not differ much from those of previous studies (Rikitake, 1976, 1986; Utsu, 1984).Taking the newly-determined velocities of the motion of Philippine Sea plate at various portions of the Tokai-Nankai zone into account, the ultimate displacements to rupture at the plate boundary are obtained. A Weibull distribution analysis results in the mean ultimate displacement amounting to 4.70 m with a standard deviation estimated as 0.86 m. A return period amounting to 117 yr is obtained at the Suruga Bay portion by dividing the mean ultimate displacement by the relative plate velocity.With the aid of the fault models as determined from the tsunami studies, the increases in the cumulative seismic slips associated with the great earthquakes are examined at various portions of the zone. It appears that a slip-predictable model can better be applied to the occurrence mode of great earthquakes in the zone than a time-predictable model. The crustal strain accumulating over the Tokai area as estimated from the newly-developed geodetic work including the GPS observations is compared to the ultimate strain presumed by the above two models.The probabilities for a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district are then estimated with the aid of the Weibull analysis parameters obtained for the four cases discussed in the above. All the probabilities evaluated for the four cases take on values ranging 35-45 percent for a ten-year period following the year 2000.

Effect of high pressure hydrogen on the mechanical characteristics of single carbon fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, Sang Koo; Kwon, Oh Heon; Jang, Hoon-Sik; Ryu, Kwon Sang; Nahm, Seung Hoon

2018-02-01

In this study, carbon fiber was exposed to a pressure of 7 MPa for 24 h in high pressure chamber. The tensile test for carbon fiber was conducted to estimate the effect on the high pressure hydrogen in the atmosphere. To determine the tensile strength and Weibull modulus, approximately thirty carbon fiber samples were measured in all cases, and carbon fiber exposed to high pressure argon was evaluated to verify only the effect of hydrogen. Additionally, carbon fiber samples were annealed at 1950 °C for 1 h for a comparison with normal carbon fiber and then tested under identical conditions. The results showed that the tensile strength scatter of normal carbon fiber exposed to hydrogen was relatively wider and the Weibull modulus was decreased. Moreover, the tensile strength of the annealed carbon fiber exposed to hydrogen was increased, and these samples indicated a complex Weibull modulus because the hydrogen stored in the carbon fiber influenced the mechanical characteristic.

Statistical wind analysis for near-space applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roney, Jason A.

2007-09-01

Statistical wind models were developed based on the existing observational wind data for near-space altitudes between 60 000 and 100 000 ft (18 30 km) above ground level (AGL) at two locations, Akon, OH, USA, and White Sands, NM, USA. These two sites are envisioned as playing a crucial role in the first flights of high-altitude airships. The analysis shown in this paper has not been previously applied to this region of the stratosphere for such an application. Standard statistics were compiled for these data such as mean, median, maximum wind speed, and standard deviation, and the data were modeled with Weibull distributions. These statistics indicated, on a yearly average, there is a lull or a “knee” in the wind between 65 000 and 72 000 ft AGL (20 22 km). From the standard statistics, trends at both locations indicated substantial seasonal variation in the mean wind speed at these heights. The yearly and monthly statistical modeling indicated that Weibull distributions were a reasonable model for the data. Forecasts and hindcasts were done by using a Weibull model based on 2004 data and comparing the model with the 2003 and 2005 data. The 2004 distribution was also a reasonable model for these years. Lastly, the Weibull distribution and cumulative function were used to predict the 50%, 95%, and 99% winds, which are directly related to the expected power requirements of a near-space station-keeping airship. These values indicated that using only the standard deviation of the mean may underestimate the operational conditions.

Evaluation of Different Dose-Response Models for High Hydrostatic Pressure Inactivation of Microorganisms

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Modeling of microbial inactivation by high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) requires a plot of the log microbial count or survival ratio versus time data under a constant pressure and temperature. However, at low pressure and temperature values, very long holding times are needed to obtain measurable inactivation. Since the time has a significant effect on the cost of HHP processing it may be reasonable to fix the time at an appropriate value and quantify the inactivation with respect to pressure. Such a plot is called dose-response curve and it may be more beneficial than the traditional inactivation modeling since short holding times with different pressure values can be selected and used for the modeling of HHP inactivation. For this purpose, 49 dose-response curves (with at least 4 log10 reduction and ≥5 data points including the atmospheric pressure value (P = 0.1 MPa), and with holding time ≤10 min) for HHP inactivation of microorganisms obtained from published studies were fitted with four different models, namely the Discrete model, Shoulder model, Fermi equation, and Weibull model, and the pressure value needed for 5 log10 (P5) inactivation was calculated for all the models above. The Shoulder model and Fermi equation produced exactly the same parameter and P5 values, while the Discrete model produced similar or sometimes the exact same parameter values as the Fermi equation. The Weibull model produced the worst fit (had the lowest adjusted determination coefficient (R2adj) and highest mean square error (MSE) values), while the Fermi equation had the best fit (the highest R2adj and lowest MSE values). Parameters of the models and also P5 values of each model can be useful for the further experimental design of HHP processing and also for the comparison of the pressure resistance of different microorganisms. Further experiments can be done to verify the P5 values at given conditions. The procedure given in this study can also be extended for enzyme inactivation by HHP. PMID:28880255

Kinetics of Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger Spores and Staphylococcus albus on Paper by Chlorine Dioxide Gas in an Enclosed Space.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Wu, Jinhui; Qi, Jiancheng; Hao, Limei; Yi, Ying; Zhang, Zongxing

2016-05-15

Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spore and Staphylococcus albus are typical biological indicators for the inactivation of airborne pathogens. The present study characterized and compared the behaviors of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus in regard to inactivation by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas under different gas concentrations and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The inactivation kinetics under different ClO2 gas concentrations (1 to 5 mg/liter) were determined by first-order and Weibull models. A new model (the Weibull-H model) was established to reveal the inactivation tendency and kinetics for ClO2 gas under different RH conditions (30 to 90%). The results showed that both the gas concentration and RH were significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the inactivation of the two chosen indicators. There was a rapid improvement in the inactivation efficiency under high RH (>70%). Compared with the first-order model, the Weibull and Weibull-H models demonstrated a better fit for the experimental data, indicating nonlinear inactivation behaviors of the vegetative bacteria and spores following exposure to ClO2 gas. The times to achieve a six-log reduction of B. subtilis subsp. niger spore and S. albus were calculated based on the established models. Clarifying the kinetics of inactivation of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus by ClO2 gas will allow the development of ClO2 gas treatments that provide an effective disinfection method. Chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas is a novel and effective fumigation agent with strong oxidization ability and a broad biocidal spectrum. The antimicrobial efficacy of ClO2 gas has been evaluated in many previous studies. However, there are presently no published models that can be used to describe the kinetics of inactivation of airborne pathogens by ClO2 gas under different gas concentrations and RH conditions. The first-order and Weibull (Weibull-H) models established in this study can characterize and compare the behaviors of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spores and Staphylococcus albus in regard to inactivation by ClO2 gas, determine the kinetics of inactivation of two chosen strains under different conditions of gas concentration and RH, and provide the calculated time to achieve a six-log reduction. These results will be useful to determine effective conditions for ClO2 gas to inactivate airborne pathogens in contaminated air and other environments and thus prevent outbreaks of airborne illness. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2016-01-01

A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable life results using the Lundberg- Palmgren equations with life adjustment factors to predict bearing life. That is, they had lives equal to or greater than that predicted. The Lundberg-Palmgren model was used to predict the life of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The life prediction was compared with the field lives of 64 gearboxes. From these results, the roller bearing lives exhibited a load-life exponent of 5.2, which correlated with the Zaretsky model. The use of the ANSI/ABMA and ISO standards load-life exponent of 10/3 to predict roller bearing life is not reflective of modern roller bearings and will underpredict bearing lives.

Kinetics of Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger Spores and Staphylococcus albus on Paper by Chlorine Dioxide Gas in an Enclosed Space

PubMed Central

Wang, Tao; Wu, Jinhui; Hao, Limei; Yi, Ying; Zhang, Zongxing

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spore and Staphylococcus albus are typical biological indicators for the inactivation of airborne pathogens. The present study characterized and compared the behaviors of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus in regard to inactivation by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas under different gas concentrations and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The inactivation kinetics under different ClO2 gas concentrations (1 to 5 mg/liter) were determined by first-order and Weibull models. A new model (the Weibull-H model) was established to reveal the inactivation tendency and kinetics for ClO2 gas under different RH conditions (30 to 90%). The results showed that both the gas concentration and RH were significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the inactivation of the two chosen indicators. There was a rapid improvement in the inactivation efficiency under high RH (>70%). Compared with the first-order model, the Weibull and Weibull-H models demonstrated a better fit for the experimental data, indicating nonlinear inactivation behaviors of the vegetative bacteria and spores following exposure to ClO2 gas. The times to achieve a six-log reduction of B. subtilis subsp. niger spore and S. albus were calculated based on the established models. Clarifying the kinetics of inactivation of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus by ClO2 gas will allow the development of ClO2 gas treatments that provide an effective disinfection method. IMPORTANCE Chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas is a novel and effective fumigation agent with strong oxidization ability and a broad biocidal spectrum. The antimicrobial efficacy of ClO2 gas has been evaluated in many previous studies. However, there are presently no published models that can be used to describe the kinetics of inactivation of airborne pathogens by ClO2 gas under different gas concentrations and RH conditions. The first-order and Weibull (Weibull-H) models established in this study can characterize and compare the behaviors of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spores and Staphylococcus albus in regard to inactivation by ClO2 gas, determine the kinetics of inactivation of two chosen strains under different conditions of gas concentration and RH, and provide the calculated time to achieve a six-log reduction. These results will be useful to determine effective conditions for ClO2 gas to inactivate airborne pathogens in contaminated air and other environments and thus prevent outbreaks of airborne illness. PMID:26969707

Kinetics of shear-induced gel deswelling/solvent release.

PubMed

Zeo, Undina; Tarabukina, Elena; Budtova, Tatiana

2005-11-02

The kinetics of shear-induced deswelling of gel particles based on synthetic (sodium polyacrylate) and natural (alginate) polymers was studied by rheo-optical technique. A swollen spherical gel particle of 100+/-50 microm diameter was placed in silicone oil and the evolution of the gel size as a function of time and shear rate was monitored. Different aqueous polymer solutions were used as synthetic gel solvent: polyvinylpyrrolidone, hydroxypropyl cellulose and glucose-based polymer. The interfacial tension (gel solvent)/(silicone oil), gel degree of swelling, solvent quality and viscosity are the main parameters influencing the kinetics of shear-induced gel deswelling. The kinetics of gel volume loss was approximated by a modified Weibull equation.

SEEK: A FORTRAN optimization program using a feasible directions gradient search

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.

1995-01-01

This report describes the use of computer program 'SEEK' which works in conjunction with two user-written subroutines and an input data file to perform an optimization procedure on a user's problem. The optimization method uses a modified feasible directions gradient technique. SEEK is written in ANSI standard Fortran 77, has an object size of about 46K bytes, and can be used on a personal computer running DOS. This report describes the use of the program and discusses the optimizing method. The program use is illustrated with four example problems: a bushing design, a helical coil spring design, a gear mesh design, and a two-parameter Weibull life-reliability curve fit.

A fuzzy set approach for reliability calculation of valve controlling electric actuators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmachev, D. P.; Yefremov, A. A.; Luneva, E. E.

2017-02-01

The oil and gas equipment and electric actuators in particular frequently perform in various operational modes and under dynamic environmental conditions. These factors affect equipment reliability measures in a vague, uncertain way. To eliminate the ambiguity, reliability model parameters could be defined as fuzzy numbers. We suggest a technique that allows constructing fundamental fuzzy-valued performance reliability measures based on an analysis of electric actuators failure data in accordance with the amount of work, completed before the failure, instead of failure time. Also, this paper provides a computation example of fuzzy-valued reliability and hazard rate functions, assuming Kumaraswamy complementary Weibull geometric distribution as a lifetime (reliability) model for electric actuators.

Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

2003-01-01

A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Numerical simulation of the fracture process in ceramic FPD frameworks caused by oblique loading.

PubMed

Kou, Wen; Qiao, Jiyan; Chen, Li; Ding, Yansheng; Sjögren, Göran

2015-10-01

Using a newly developed three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling code, an analysis was performed of the fracture behavior in a three-unit ceramic-based fixed partial denture (FPD) framework subjected to oblique loading. All the materials in the study were treated heterogeneously; Weibull׳s distribution law was applied to the description of the heterogeneity. The Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with tensile strength cut-off was utilized in judging whether the material was in an elastic or failed state. The simulated loading area was placed either on the buccal or the lingual cusp of a premolar-shaped pontic with the loading direction at 30°, 45°, 60°, 75° or 90° angles to the occlusal surface. The stress distribution, fracture initiation and propagation in the framework during the loading and fracture process were analyzed. This numerical simulation allowed the cause of the framework fracture to be identified as tensile stress failure. The decisive fracture was initiated in the gingival embrasure of the pontic, regardless of whether the buccal or lingual cusp of the pontic was loaded. The stress distribution and fracture propagation process of the framework could be followed step by step from beginning to end. The bearing capacity and the rigidity of the framework vary with the loading position and direction. The framework loaded with 90° towards the occlusal surface has the highest bearing capacity and the greatest rigidity. The framework loaded with 30° towards the occlusal surface has the least rigidity indicating that oblique loading has a major impact on the fracture of ceramic frameworks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

Categorical Data Analysis Using a Skewed Weibull Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Renault; Sinha, Debajyoti; Dey, Dipak; Polpo, Adriano

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and complementary log-log) can be obtained as limiting cases. We further compare the proposed model with some other asymmetrical models. The Bayesian as well as frequentist estimation procedures for binomial and multinomial data responses are presented in details. The analysis of two data sets to show the efficiency of the proposed model is performed.

Effect of fiber addition on slow crack growth of a dental porcelain.

PubMed

de Araújo, Maico Dutra; Miranda, Ranulfo Benedito de Paula; Fredericci, Catia; Yoshimura, Humberto Naoyuki; Cesar, Paulo Francisco

2015-04-01

To evaluate the effect of the processing method (conventional sintering, S, and heat-pressing, HP) and addition of potassium titanate fibers, PTF, on the microstructure, mechanical properties (flexural strength, σf, and Weibull parameters, m and σ5%), slow crack growth parameters n (stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient), and optical properties (translucency parameter, TP, and opalescence index, OI) of a feldsphatic dental porcelain. Disks (n = 240, Ø12 × 1 mm) of porcelain (Vintage-Halo, Shofu) were produced using S and HP methods with and without addition of 10 wt% (conventional sintering) or 5 wt% (heat-pressing) of PTF. For the S method, porcelain was sintered in a conventional furnace. In the HP technique, refractory molds were produced by lost wax technique. The porcelain slurry was dry-pressed (3t/30s) to form a cylinder with 12 mm (diameter) and 20mm (height), which was heat-pressed for 5 min/3.5 bar into the mold. Specimens were tested for biaxial flexural strength in artificial saliva at 37°C. Weibull analysis was used to determine m and σ5%. Slow crack growth (SCG) parameters were determined by the dynamic fatigue test, and specimens were tested in biaxial flexure at five stress rates: 10(-2), 10(-1), 10(0), 10(1) and 10(2)MPa/s (n=10), immersed in artificial saliva at 37°C. Parameter n was calculated and statistically analyzed according to ASTM F394-78. Optical properties were determined in a spectrophotometer in the diffuse reflectance mode. The highest n value was obtained by the combination of heat-pressing with fiber addition (37.1) and this value was significantly higher than those obtained by both sintered groups (26.2 for control group and 27.7 for sintered with fiber). Although heat-pressing alone also resulted in higher n values compared to the sintered groups, there were no significant differences among them. Fiber addition had no effect on mechanical strength, but it resulted in decreased TP values and increased OI values for both processing methods. Heat-pressing alone was able to reduce the porosity level of the porcelain. Addition of PTF combined with heat-pressing can reduce strength degradation of a dental porcelain compared to sintered materials with or without fibers. Heat-pressing (HP) alone should be considered as a good alternative for clinical cases where high translucency is required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms.

PubMed

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-10-09

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms ( Bacillus subtilis , B. cereus , B. pumilus , Escherichia coli , Pseudomonas fluorescens , Aspergillus niger , Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum ) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O₃/m³ O₂, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process.

Generalized Reliability Methodology Applied to Brittle Anisotropic Single Crystals. Degree awarded by Washington Univ., 1999

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.

2002-01-01

A generalized reliability model was developed for use in the design of structural components made from brittle, homogeneous anisotropic materials such as single crystals. The model is based on the Weibull distribution and incorporates a variable strength distribution and any equivalent stress failure criteria. In addition to the reliability model, an energy based failure criterion for elastically anisotropic materials was formulated. The model is different from typical Weibull-based models in that it accounts for strength anisotropy arising from fracture toughness anisotropy and thereby allows for strength and reliability predictions of brittle, anisotropic single crystals subjected to multiaxial stresses. The model is also applicable to elastically isotropic materials exhibiting strength anisotropy due to an anisotropic distribution of flaws. In order to develop and experimentally verify the model, the uniaxial and biaxial strengths of a single crystal nickel aluminide were measured. The uniaxial strengths of the <100> and <110> crystal directions were measured in three and four-point flexure. The biaxial strength was measured by subjecting <100> plates to a uniform pressure in a test apparatus that was developed and experimentally verified. The biaxial strengths of the single crystal plates were estimated by extending and verifying the displacement solution for a circular, anisotropic plate to the case of a variable radius and thickness. The best correlation between the experimental strength data and the model predictions occurred when an anisotropic stress analysis was combined with the normal stress criterion and the strength parameters associated with the <110> crystal direction.

Microstructure characterization and SCG of newly engineered dental ceramics.

PubMed

Ramos, Nathália de Carvalho; Campos, Tiago Moreira Bastos; Paz, Igor Siqueira de La; Machado, João Paulo Barros; Bottino, Marco Antonio; Cesar, Paulo Francisco; Melo, Renata Marques de

2016-07-01

The aim of this study was to characterize the microstructure of four dental CAD-CAM ceramics and evaluate their susceptibility to stress corrosion. SEM and EDS were performed for microstructural characterization. For evaluation of the pattern of crystallization of the ceramics and the molecular composition, XRD and FTIR, respectively, were used. Elastic modulus, Poisson's ratio, density and fracture toughness were also measured. The specimens were subjected to biaxial flexure under five stress rates (0.006, 0.06, 0.6, 6 and 60MPa/s) to determine the subcritical crack growth parameters (n and D). Twenty-five specimens were further tested in mineral oil for determination of Weibull parameters. Two hundred forty ceramic discs (12mm diameter and 1.2mm thick) were made from four ceramics: feldspathic ceramic - FEL (Vita Mark II, Vita Zahnfabrik), ceramic-infiltrated polymer - PIC (Vita Enamic, Vita Zahnfabrik), lithium disilicate - LD (IPS e.max CAD, Ivoclar Vivadent) and zirconia-reinforced lithium silicate - LS (Vita Suprinity, Vita Zahnfabrik). PIC discs presented organic and inorganic phases (n=29.1±7.7) and Weibull modulus (m) of 8.96. The FEL discs showed n=36.6±6.8 and m=8.02. The LD discs showed a structure with needle-like disilicate grains in a glassy matrix and had the lowest value of n (8.4±0.8) and m=6.19. The ZLS discs showed similar rod-like grains, n=11.2±1.4 and m=9.98. The FEL and PIC discs showed the lowest susceptibility to slow crack growth (SCG), whereas the LD and ZLS discs presented the highest. PIC presented the lowest elastic modulus and no crystals in its composition, while ZLS presented tetragonal zirconia. The overall strength and SCG of the new materials did not benefit from the additional phase or microconstituents present in them. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abutment design for implant-supported indirect composite molar crowns: reliability and fractography.

PubMed

Bonfante, Estevam Augusto; Suzuki, Marcelo; Lubelski, William; Thompson, Van P; de Carvalho, Ricardo Marins; Witek, Lukasz; Coelho, Paulo G

2012-12-01

To investigate the reliability of titanium abutments veneered with indirect composites for implant-supported crowns and the possibility to trace back the fracture origin by qualitative fractographic analysis. Large base (LB) (6.4-mm diameter base, with a 4-mm high cone in the center for composite retention), small base (SB-4) (5.2-mm base, 4-mm high cone), and small base with cone shortened to 2 mm (SB-2) Ti abutments were used. Each abutment received incremental layers of indirect resin composite until completing the anatomy of a maxillary molar crown. Step-stress accelerated-life fatigue testing (n = 18 each) was performed in water. Weibull curves with use stress of 200 N for 50,000 and 100,000 cycles were calculated. Probability Weibull plots examined the differences between groups. Specimens were inspected in light-polarized and scanning electron microscopes for fractographic analysis. Use level probability Weibull plots showed Beta values of 0.27 for LB, 0.32 for SB-4, and 0.26 for SB-2, indicating that failures were not influenced by fatigue and damage accumulation. The data replotted as Weibull distribution showed no significant difference in the characteristic strengths between LB (794 N) and SB-4 abutments (836 N), which were both significantly higher than SB-2 (601 N). Failure mode was cohesive within the composite for all groups. Fractographic markings showed that failures initiated at the indentation area and propagated toward the margins of cohesively failed composite. Reliability was not influenced by abutment design. Qualitative fractographic analysis of the failed indirect composite was feasible. © 2012 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2008-10-01

The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade durations, where the empirical density functions of the normalized intertrade durations of all 23 stocks collapse onto a single curve. The scaling pattern is also observed in the intertrade duration distributions for filled and partially filled trades and in the conditional distributions. The ensemble distributions for all stocks are modeled by the Weibull and the Tsallis q-exponential distributions. Maximum likelihood estimation shows that the Weibull distribution outperforms the q-exponential for not-too-large intertrade durations which account for more than 98.5% of the data. Alternatively, nonlinear least-squares estimation selects the q-exponential as a better model, in which the optimization is conducted on the distance between empirical and theoretical values of the logarithmic probability densities. The distribution of intertrade durations is Weibull followed by a power-law tail with an asymptotic tail exponent close to 3.

Optimal methods for fitting probability distributions to propagule retention time in studies of zoochorous dispersal.

PubMed

Viana, Duarte S; Santamaría, Luis; Figuerola, Jordi

2016-02-01

Propagule retention time is a key factor in determining propagule dispersal distance and the shape of "seed shadows". Propagules dispersed by animal vectors are either ingested and retained in the gut until defecation or attached externally to the body until detachment. Retention time is a continuous variable, but it is commonly measured at discrete time points, according to pre-established sampling time-intervals. Although parametric continuous distributions have been widely fitted to these interval-censored data, the performance of different fitting methods has not been evaluated. To investigate the performance of five different fitting methods, we fitted parametric probability distributions to typical discretized retention-time data with known distribution using as data-points either the lower, mid or upper bounds of sampling intervals, as well as the cumulative distribution of observed values (using either maximum likelihood or non-linear least squares for parameter estimation); then compared the estimated and original distributions to assess the accuracy of each method. We also assessed the robustness of these methods to variations in the sampling procedure (sample size and length of sampling time-intervals). Fittings to the cumulative distribution performed better for all types of parametric distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions) and were more robust to variations in sample size and sampling time-intervals. These estimated distributions had negligible deviations of up to 0.045 in cumulative probability of retention times (according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic) in relation to original distributions from which propagule retention time was simulated, supporting the overall accuracy of this fitting method. In contrast, fitting the sampling-interval bounds resulted in greater deviations that ranged from 0.058 to 0.273 in cumulative probability of retention times, which may introduce considerable biases in parameter estimates. We recommend the use of cumulative probability to fit parametric probability distributions to propagule retention time, specifically using maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. Furthermore, the experimental design for an optimal characterization of unimodal propagule retention time should contemplate at least 500 recovered propagules and sampling time-intervals not larger than the time peak of propagule retrieval, except in the tail of the distribution where broader sampling time-intervals may also produce accurate fits.

Modelling average maximum daily temperature using r largest order statistics: An application to South African data

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Natural hazards (events that may cause actual disasters) are established in the literature as major causes of various massive and destructive problems worldwide. The occurrences of earthquakes, floods and heat waves affect millions of people through several impacts. These include cases of hospitalisation, loss of lives and economic challenges. The focus of this study was on the risk reduction of the disasters that occur because of extremely high temperatures and heat waves. Modelling average maximum daily temperature (AMDT) guards against the disaster risk and may also help countries towards preparing for extreme heat. This study discusses the use of the r largest order statistics approach of extreme value theory towards modelling AMDT over the period of 11 years, that is, 2000–2010. A generalised extreme value distribution for r largest order statistics is fitted to the annual maxima. This is performed in an effort to study the behaviour of the r largest order statistics. The method of maximum likelihood is used in estimating the target parameters and the frequency of occurrences of the hottest days is assessed. The study presents a case study of South Africa in which the data for the non-winter season (September–April of each year) are used. The meteorological data used are the AMDT that are collected by the South African Weather Service and provided by Eskom. The estimation of the shape parameter reveals evidence of a Weibull class as an appropriate distribution for modelling AMDT in South Africa. The extreme quantiles for specified return periods are estimated using the quantile function and the best model is chosen through the use of the deviance statistic with the support of the graphical diagnostic tools. The Entropy Difference Test (EDT) is used as a specification test for diagnosing the fit of the models to the data.

The Influence of Roughness on Gear Surface Fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy

2005-01-01

Gear working surfaces are subjected to repeated rolling and sliding contacts, and often designs require loads sufficient to cause eventual fatigue of the surface. This research provides experimental data and analytical tools to further the understanding of the causal relationship of gear surface roughness to surface fatigue. The research included evaluations and developments of statistical tools for gear fatigue data, experimental evaluation of the surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears with a near-mirror quality, and evaluations of the experiments by analytical methods and surface inspections. Alternative statistical methods were evaluated using Monte Carlo studies leading to a final recommendation to describe gear fatigue data using a Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, and a presumed zero-valued location parameter. A new method was developed for comparing two datasets by extending the current methods of likelihood-ratio based statistics. The surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears were evaluated by carefully controlled experiments, and it is shown conclusively that superfinishing of gears can provide for significantly greater lives relative to ground gears. The measured life improvement was approximately a factor of five. To assist with application of this finding to products, the experimental condition was evaluated. The fatigue life results were expressed in terms of specific film thickness and shown to be consistent with bearing data. Elastohydrodynamic and stress analyses were completed to relate the stress condition to fatigue. Smooth-surface models do not adequately explain the improved fatigue lives. Based on analyses using a rough surface model, it is concluded that the improved fatigue lives of superfinished gears is due to a reduced rate of near-surface micropitting fatigue processes, not due to any reduced rate of spalling (sub-surface) fatigue processes. To complete the evaluations, surface inspection were completed. The surface topographies of the ground gears changed substantially due to running, but the topographies of the superfinished gears were essentially unchanged with running.

A spatial scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution.

PubMed

Bhatt, Vijaya; Tiwari, Neeraj

2014-05-20

The spatial scan statistic has been developed as a geographical cluster detection analysis tool for different types of data sets such as Bernoulli, Poisson, ordinal, normal and exponential. We propose a scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution. It may also be used for other survival distributions, such as exponential, gamma, and log normal. The proposed method is applied on the survival data of tuberculosis patients for the years 2004-2005 in Nainital district of Uttarakhand, India. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well for different survival distribution functions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A methodology for optimization of wind farm allocation under land restrictions: the case of the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaño Moraga, C. A.; Suárez Santana, E.; Sabbagh Rodríguez, I.; Nebot Medina, R.; Suárez García, S.; Rodríguez Alvarado, J.; Piernavieja Izquierdo, G.; Ruiz Alzola, J.

2010-09-01

Wind farms authorization and power allocations to private investors promoting wind energy projects requires some planification strategies. This issue is even more important under land restrictions, as it is the case of Canary Islands, where numerous specially protected areas are present for environmental reasons and land is a scarce resource. Aware of this limitation, the Regional Government of Canary Islands designed the requirements of a public tender to grant licences to install new wind farms trying to maximize the energy produced in terms of occupied land. In this paper, we detail the methodology developed by the Canary Islands Institute of Technology (ITC, S.A.) to support the work of the technical staff of the Regional Ministry of Industry, responsible for the evaluation of a competitive tender process for awarding power lincenses to private investors. The maximization of wind energy production per unit of area requires an exhaustive wind profile characterization. To that end, wind speed was statistically characterized by means of a Weibull probability density function, which mainly depends on two parameters: the shape parameter K, which determines the slope of the curve, and the average wind speed v , which is a scale parameter. These two parameters have been evaluated at three different heights (40,60,80 m) over the whole canarian archipelago, as well as the main wind speed direction. These parameters are available from the public data source Wind Energy Map of the Canary Islands [1]. The proposed methodology is based on the calculation of an initially defined Energy Efficiency Basic Index (EEBI), which is a performance criteria that weighs the annual energy production of a wind farm per unit of area. The calculation of this parameter considers wind conditions, windturbine characteristics, geometry of windturbine distribution in the wind farm (position within the row and column of machines), and involves four steps: Estimation of the energy produced by every windturbine as if it were isolated from all the other machines of the wind farm, using its power curve and the statistical characterization of the wind profile at the site. Estimation of energy losses due to affections caused by other windturbine in the same row and missalignment with respect to the main wind speed direction. Estimation of energy losses due to affections induced by windturbines located upstream. EEBI calculation as the ratio between the annual energy production and the area occupied by the wind farm, as a function of wind speed profile and wind turbine characteristics. Computations involved above are modeled under a System Theory characterization

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion.

PubMed

Nazif-Muñoz, José Ignacio

2015-01-01

The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975. In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957-2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out. Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption. Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.

Effect of gloss and heat on the mechanical behaviour of a glass carbomer cement.

PubMed

Menne-Happ, Ulrike; Ilie, Nicoleta

2013-03-01

The effect of gloss and heat on the mechanical behaviour of a recently launched glass carbomer cement (GCP, GCP dental) was evaluated and compared with resin-modified glass ionomer cements (Fuji II LC, GC and Photac Fil Quick Aplicap, 3M ESPE). 120bar-shaped specimens (n=20) were produced, maintained in distilled water at 37°C and tested after one week. The GCP specimens were cured with and without heat application and with and without gloss. The flexural strength and modulus of elasticity in flexural test as well as the micro-mechanical properties (Vickers Hardness, indentation modulus, creep) of the top and bottom surface were evaluated. The amount and size of the fillers, voids and cracks were compared using a light and a scanning electron microscope. In the flexural test, the resin-modified glass ionomer cements performed significantly better than GCP. Fuji II LC and Photac Fil (Weibull parameter: 17.7 and 14.3) proved superior reliability in the flexural test compared to GCP (1.4-2.6). The highest Vickers Hardness and lowest creep were achieved by GCP, whereas Fuji II LC reached the highest indentation modulus. The results of this study proved that relationships exist between the compositions, microstructures and mechanical properties of the cements. Heat treatment and gloss application did not influence the mechanical properties of GCP. The mechanical properties were basically influenced by the type of cement and its microstructure. Considering the measured mechanical properties, there is no need of using gloss or heat when restoring teeth with GCP. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drug release from slabs and the effects of surface roughness.

PubMed

Kalosakas, George; Martini, Dimitra

2015-12-30

We discuss diffusion-controlled drug release from slabs or thin films. Analytical and numerical results are presented for slabs with flat surfaces, having a uniform thickness. Then, considering slabs with rough surfaces, the influence of a non-uniform slab thickness on release kinetics is numerically investigated. The numerical release profiles are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations. Release kinetics is quantified through the stretched exponential (or Weibull) function and the resulting dependence of the two parameters of this function on the thickness of the slab, for flat surfaces, and the amplitude of surface fluctuations (or the degree of thickness variability) in case of roughness. We find that a higher surface roughness leads to a faster drug release. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bivariate extreme value distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, M.

1992-01-01

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

The Topp-Leone generalized Rayleigh cure rate model and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanthaprut, Pimwarat; Bodhisuwan, Winai; Patummasut, Mena

2017-11-01

Cure rate model is one of the survival analysis when model consider a proportion of the censored data. In clinical trials, the data represent time to recurrence of event or death of patients are used to improve the efficiency of treatments. Each dataset can be separated into two groups: censored and uncensored data. In this work, the new mixture cure rate model is introduced based on the Topp-Leone generalized Rayleigh distribution. The Bayesian approach is employed to estimate its parameters. In addition, a breast cancer dataset is analyzed for model illustration purpose. According to the deviance information criterion, the Topp-Leone generalized Rayleigh cure rate model shows better result than the Weibull and exponential cure rate models.

The effect of water storage, elapsed time and contaminants on the bond strength and interfacial polymerization of a nanohybrid composite.

PubMed

Perriard, Jean; Lorente, Maria Cattani; Scherrer, Susanne; Belser, Urs C; Wiskott, H W Anselm

2009-12-01

To systematically characterize the effect of time lapse, water storage, and selected contaminants on the bond strength of a nanofilled dental composite. Half-dumbbell-shaped samples were fabricated out of light-polymerizing composite resin. To function as substrates they were aged for 30 days in water. Prior to bonding, the substrates' surfaces were subjected to the following treatments: 1) Removing a 0.2- to 0.4-mm layer using a fluted carbide bur; 2) grit blasting with 50 microm alumina particles; 3) etching with phosphoric acid gel; 4) grit blasting followed by etching; 5) blasting with tribochemical particles followed by silane application; 6) sanding with 400-grit paper, air aging of the adherent half-sample before bonding; 7) surface contamination with saliva; 8) surface contamination with blood. In each group (n = 30), freshly polymerized (except in group 6) adherent half-samples were bonded to the substrate half-samples by a layer of unfilled adhesive resin. Fifteen full dumbbell-shaped specimens were subjected to tensile testing after 1 h and 15 after 7 days water storage. In a positive control group, freshly cured half-samples were bonded shortly after fabrication. The tensile strength was analyzed using Weibull statistics and presented in terms of the material's characteristic strength and shape parameter. Fractographs of the two weakest and strongest samples of each group were produced. The surfaces were searched to locate hackle, wake hackle and the origin of the fracture. Surface roughness and time lapse increased the bond strength of the repaired specimens. All groups in which surface roughness was produced before bonding increased in repair strength. Post-bonding aging improved strength. Fractographs yielded interpretable data whenever larger surfaces of single phase bonding resin were present. 1) Roughening and etching an aged composite's surface prior to applying a coat of unfilled resin and the filled material increases repair bond strength by up to 100%. 2) The repair bond strength of a roughened aged composite is 25% to 30% inferior to the tensile strength of solid specimens. 3) After 7 days' storage in water, no detrimental effect could be seen from saliva or blood contamination if the surfaces were properly rinsed.

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1987-01-01

This is the second annual technical report entitled, Improved Silicon Carbide for Advanced Heat Engines, and includes work performed during the period February 16, 1986 to February 15, 1987. The program is conducted for NASA under contract NAS3-24384. The objective is the development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines. The fabrication methods used are to be adaptable for mass production of such parts on an economically sound basis. Injection molding is the forming method selected. This objective is to be accomplished in a two-phase program: (1) to achieve a 20 percent improvement in strength and a 100 percent increase in Weibull modulus of the baseline material; and (2) to produce a complex shaped part, a gas turbine rotor, for example, with the improved mechanical properties attained in the first phase. Eight tasks are included in the first phase covering the characterization of the properties of a baseline material, the improvement of those properties and the fabrication of complex shaped parts. Activities during the first contract year concentrated on two of these areas: fabrication and characterization of the baseline material (Task 1) and improvement of material and processes (Task 7). Activities during the second contract year included an MOR bar matrix study to improve mechanical properties (Task 2), materials and process improvements (Task 7), and a Ford-funded task to mold a turbocharger rotor with an improved material (Task 8).

Time-dependent breakdown of fiber networks: Uncertainty of lifetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsson, Amanda; Uesaka, Tetsu

2017-05-01

Materials often fail when subjected to stresses over a prolonged period. The time to failure, also called the lifetime, is known to exhibit large variability of many materials, particularly brittle and quasibrittle materials. For example, a coefficient of variation reaches 100% or even more. Its distribution shape is highly skewed toward zero lifetime, implying a large number of premature failures. This behavior contrasts with that of normal strength, which shows a variation of only 4%-10% and a nearly bell-shaped distribution. The fundamental cause of this large and unique variability of lifetime is not well understood because of the complex interplay between stochastic processes taking place on the molecular level and the hierarchical and disordered structure of the material. We have constructed fiber network models, both regular and random, as a paradigm for general material structures. With such networks, we have performed Monte Carlo simulations of creep failure to establish explicit relationships among fiber characteristics, network structures, system size, and lifetime distribution. We found that fiber characteristics have large, sometimes dominating, influences on the lifetime variability of a network. Among the factors investigated, geometrical disorders of the network were found to be essential to explain the large variability and highly skewed shape of the lifetime distribution. With increasing network size, the distribution asymptotically approaches a double-exponential form. The implication of this result is that, so-called "infant mortality," which is often predicted by the Weibull approximation of the lifetime distribution, may not exist for a large system.

The effect of core material, veneering porcelain, and fabrication technique on the biaxial flexural strength and weibull analysis of selected dental ceramics.

PubMed

Lin, Wei-Shao; Ercoli, Carlo; Feng, Changyong; Morton, Dean

2012-07-01

The objective of this study was to compare the effect of veneering porcelain (monolithic or bilayer specimens) and core fabrication technique (heat-pressed or CAD/CAM) on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus of leucite-reinforced and lithium-disilicate glass ceramics. In addition, the effect of veneering technique (heat-pressed or powder/liquid layering) for zirconia ceramics on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus was studied. Five ceramic core materials (IPS Empress Esthetic, IPS Empress CAD, IPS e.max Press, IPS e.max CAD, IPS e.max ZirCAD) and three corresponding veneering porcelains (IPS Empress Esthetic Veneer, IPS e.max Ceram, IPS e.max ZirPress) were selected for this study. Each core material group contained three subgroups based on the core material thickness and the presence of corresponding veneering porcelain as follows: 1.5 mm core material only (subgroup 1.5C), 0.8 mm core material only (subgroup 0.8C), and 1.5 mm core/veneer group: 0.8 mm core with 0.7 mm corresponding veneering porcelain with a powder/liquid layering technique (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VL). The ZirCAD group had one additional 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroup with 0.7 mm heat-pressed veneering porcelain (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP). The biaxial flexural strengths were compared for each subgroup (n = 10) according to ISO standard 6872:2008 with ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc multiple comparison test (p≤ 0.05). The reliability of strength was analyzed with the Weibull distribution. For all core materials, the 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroups (0.8C-0.7VL, 0.8C-0.7VP) had significantly lower mean biaxial flexural strengths (p < 0.0001) than the other two subgroups (subgroups 1.5C and 0.8C). For the ZirCAD group, the 0.8C-0.7VL subgroup had significantly lower flexural strength (p= 0.004) than subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP. Nonetheless, both veneered ZirCAD groups showed greater flexural strength than the monolithic Empress and e.max groups, regardless of core thickness and fabrication techniques. Comparing fabrication techniques, Empress Esthetic/CAD, e.max Press/CAD had similar biaxial flexural strength (p= 0.28 for Empress pair; p= 0.87 for e.max pair); however, e.max CAD/Press groups had significantly higher flexural strength (p < 0.0001) than Empress Esthetic/CAD groups. Monolithic core specimens presented with higher Weibull modulus with all selected core materials. For the ZirCAD group, although the bilayer 0.8C-0.7VL subgroup exhibited significantly lower flexural strength, it had highest Weibull modulus than the 0.8C-0.7VP subgroup. The present study suggests that veneering porcelain onto a ceramic core material diminishes the flexural strength and the reliability of the bilayer specimens. Leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic cores have lower flexural strength than lithium-disilicate ones, while fabrication techniques (heat-pressed or CAD/CAM) and specimen thicknesses do not affect the flexural strength of all glass ceramics. Compared with the heat-pressed veneering technique, the powder/liquid veneering technique exhibited lower flexural strength but increased reliability with a higher Weibull modulus for zirconia bilayer specimens. Zirconia-veneered ceramics exhibited greater flexural strength than monolithic leucite-reinforced and lithium-disilicate ceramics regardless of zirconia veneering techniques (heat-pressed or powder/liquid technique). © 2012 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Inactivation modeling of human enteric virus surrogates, MS2, Qβ, and ΦX174, in water using UVC-LEDs, a novel disinfecting system.

PubMed

Kim, Do-Kyun; Kim, Soo-Ji; Kang, Dong-Hyun

2017-01-01

In order to assure the microbial safety of drinking water, UVC-LED treatment has emerged as a possible technology to replace the use of conventional low pressure (LP) mercury vapor UV lamps. In this investigation, inactivation of Human Enteric Virus (HuEV) surrogates with UVC-LEDs was investigated in a water disinfection system, and kinetic model equations were applied to depict the surviving infectivities of the viruses. MS2, Qβ, and ΦX 174 bacteriophages were inoculated into sterile distilled water (DW) and irradiated with UVC-LED printed circuit boards (PCBs) (266nm and 279nm) or conventional LP lamps. Infectivities of bacteriophages were effectively reduced by up to 7-log after 9mJ/cm 2 treatment for MS2 and Qβ, and 1mJ/cm 2 for ΦX 174. UVC-LEDs showed a superior viral inactivation effect compared to conventional LP lamps at the same dose (1mJ/cm 2 ). Non-log linear plot patterns were observed, so that Weibull, Biphasic, Log linear-tail, and Weibull-tail model equations were used to fit the virus survival curves. For MS2 and Qβ, Weibull and Biphasic models fit well with R 2 values approximately equal to 0.97-0.99, and the Weibull-tail equation accurately described survival of ΦX 174. The level of UV-susceptibility among coliphages measured by the inactivation rate constant, k, was statistically different (ΦX 174 (ssDNA)>MS2, Qβ (ssRNA)), and indicated that sensitivity to UV was attributed to viral genetic material. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Dynamics of Conditioning and Extinction

PubMed Central

Killeen, Peter R.; Sanabria, Federico; Dolgov, Igor

2009-01-01

Pigeons responded to intermittently reinforced classical conditioning trials with erratic bouts of responding to the CS. Responding depended on whether the prior trial contained a peck, food, or both. A linear-persistence/learning model moved animals into and out of a response state, and a Weibull distribution for number of within-trial responses governed in-state pecking. Variations of trial and inter-trial durations caused correlated changes in rate and probability of responding, and model parameters. A novel prediction—in the protracted absence of food, response rates can plateau above zero—was validated. The model predicted smooth acquisition functions when instantiated with the probability of food, but a more accurate jagged learning curve when instantiated with trial-to-trial records of reinforcement. The Skinnerian parameter was dominant only when food could be accelerated or delayed by pecking. These experiments provide a framework for trial-by-trial accounts of conditioning and extinction that increases the information available from the data, permitting them to comment more definitively on complex contemporary models of momentum and conditioning. PMID:19839699

An Australian stocks and flows model for asbestos.

PubMed

Donovan, Sally; Pickin, Joe

2016-10-01

All available data on asbestos consumption in Australia were collated in order to determine the most common asbestos-containing materials remaining in the built environment. The proportion of asbestos contained within each material and the types of products these materials are most commonly found in was also determined. The lifetime of these asbestos containing products was estimated in order to develop a model that projects stocks and flows of asbestos products in Australia through to the year 2100. The model is based on a Weibull distribution and was built in an excel spreadsheet to make it user-friendly and accessible. The nature of the products under consideration means both their asbestos content and lifetime parameters are highly variable, and so for each of these a high and low estimate is presented along with the estimate used in the model. The user is able to vary the parameters in the model as better data become available. © The Author(s) 2016.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. C.; Wimmer, J. M.; Huang, H. H.; Rorabaugh, M. E.; Schienle, J.; Styhr, K. H.

1985-01-01

The AiResearch Casting Company baseline silicon nitride (92 percent GTE SN-502 Si sub 3 N sub 4 plus 6 percent Y sub 2 O sub 3 plus 2 percent Al sub 2 O sub 3) was characterized with methods that included chemical analysis, oxygen content determination, electrophoresis, particle size distribution analysis, surface area determination, and analysis of the degree of agglomeration and maximum particle size of elutriated powder. Test bars were injection molded and processed through sintering at 0.68 MPa (100 psi) of nitrogen. The as-sintered test bars were evaluated by X-ray phase analysis, room and elevated temperature modulus of rupture strength, Weibull modulus, stress rupture, strength after oxidation, fracture origins, microstructure, and density from quantities of samples sufficiently large to generate statistically valid results. A series of small test matrices were conducted to study the effects and interactions of processing parameters which included raw materials, binder systems, binder removal cycles, injection molding temperatures, particle size distribution, sintering additives, and sintering cycle parameters.

Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.

1995-01-01

The general goal of this project is to establish design protocols that enable the engineer to analyze and predict certain types of behavior in ceramic composites. Sections of the final report addresses the following: Description of the Problem that Motivated the Technology Development, Description of the New Technology that was Developed, Unique and Novel Features of the Technology and Results/Benefits of Application (year by year accomplishments), and Utilization of New Technology in Non-Aerospace Applications. Activities for this reporting period included the development of a design analysis as part of a cooperative agreement with general Electric Aircraft Engines. The effort focused on modifying the Toughened Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (TCARES) algorithm for use in the design of engine components fabricated from NiAl. Other activities related to the development of an ASTM standard practice for estimating Weibull parameters. The standard focuses on the evaluation and reporting of uniaxial strength data, and the estimation of probability distribution parameters for ceramics which fail in a brittle fashion.

Pre-atmospheric parameters and fragment distribution: Case study for the Kosice meteoroid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gritsevich, M.; Vinnikov, V.; Kuznetsova, D.; Kohout, T.; Pupyrev, Y.; Peltoniemi, J.; Tóth, J.; Britt, D.; Turchak, L.; Virtanen, J.

2014-07-01

We present results on our investigation on the Košice meteorite --- one of the recent falls with a well-derived trajectory and large number of recovered fragments. A fireball appeared over central-eastern Slovakia on February 28, 2010. The bolide reached an absolute magnitude of at least -18, enabling radiometers of the European Fireball Network to track the fireball despite the cloudy and rainy weather. The landing area was successfully computed on the basis of data from the surveillance cameras operating in Hungary and led to a fast meteorite recovery (Borovička et al. 2013). The first reported fragment of the meteorite was located northwest of the city of Košice in eastern Slovakia (Tóth et al. 2014). 218 fragments of the Košice meteorite, with a total mass of 11.285 kg, have been documented with almost 7 kg belonging to the collection of the Comenius University in Bratislava and Astronomical Institute of Slovak Academy of Sciences (Gritsevich et al. 2014). Based on the statistical investigation of the recovered fragments, bimodal Weibull, bimodal Grady, and bimodal lognormal distributions are found to be the most appropriate distributions for describing the Košice fragmentation process. The most probable scenario suggests that the Košice meteoroid, prior to further extensive fragmentation in the lower atmosphere, was initially represented by two independent pieces with cumulative residual masses of approximately 2 kg and 9 kg respectively (Gritsevich et al. 2014). About 1/3 of the recovered Košice fragments were thoroughly studied, including magnetic susceptibility, bulk and grain density measurements reported by Kohout et al. (2014). This analysis revealed that the Košice meteorites are H5 ordinary chondrites that originated from a homogenous parent meteoroid. To estimate the dynamic mass of the main fragment, we studied the first integral of the drag and mass-loss equations, and the geometrical relation along the meteor trajectory in the atmosphere. By matching these equations to the trajectory data obtained by Borovička et al. (2013), we determine key dimensionless parameters responsible for the meteoroid drag and ablation rate along its visual path in the atmosphere. These parameters allow us to estimate the pre-atmospheric mass, which is in good agreement with the photometric estimate derived by Borovička et al. (2013). Throughout this study, we permit changes in meteoroid shape along the trajectory. Additionally, we estimate the initial shape of the Košice meteoroid based on a statistical analysis (Vinnikov et al. 2014). We also conclude that two to three larger Košice fragments of 500-1000g each should exist, but were either not recovered or not reported by illegal meteorite hunters.

Statistical Analysis on the Mechanical Properties of Magnesium Alloys

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruoyu; Jiang, Xianquan; Zhang, Hongju; Zhang, Dingfei; Wang, Jingfeng; Pan, Fusheng

2017-01-01

Knowledge of statistical characteristics of mechanical properties is very important for the practical application of structural materials. Unfortunately, the scatter characteristics of magnesium alloys for mechanical performance remain poorly understood until now. In this study, the mechanical reliability of magnesium alloys is systematically estimated using Weibull statistical analysis. Interestingly, the Weibull modulus, m, of strength for magnesium alloys is as high as that for aluminum and steels, confirming the very high reliability of magnesium alloys. The high predictability in the tensile strength of magnesium alloys represents the capability of preventing catastrophic premature failure during service, which is essential for safety and reliability assessment. PMID:29113116

Application of the Weibull extrapolation to 137Cs geochronology in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan.

PubMed

Lu, Xueqiang

2004-01-01

Considerable doubt surrounds the nature of processes by which 137Cs is deposited in marine sediments, leading to a situation where 137Cs geochronology cannot be always applied suitably. Based on extrapolation with Weibull distribution, the maximum concentration of 137Cs derived from asymptotic values for cumulative specific inventory was used to re-establish 137Cs geochronology, instead of original 137Cs profiles. Corresponding dating results for cores in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan, by means of this new method, are in much closer agreement with those calculated from 210Pb method than the previous method.

Strain-controlled fatigue of acrylic bone cement.

PubMed

Carter, D R; Gates, E I; Harris, W H

1982-09-01

Monotonic tensile tests and tension-compression fatigue tests were conducted of wet acrylic bone cement specimens at 37 degrees C. All testing was conducted in strain control at a strain rate of 0.02/s. Weibull analysis of the tensile tests indicated that monotonic fracture was governed more strongly by strain than stress. The number of cycles to fatigue failure was also more strongly controlled by strain amplitude than stress amplitude. Specimen porosity distribution played a major role in determining the tensile and fatigue strengths. The degree of data scatter suggests that Weibull analysis of fatigue data may be useful in developing design criteria for the surgical use of bone cement.

Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poplawski, Joseph V.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Peters, Steven M.

2000-01-01

Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms

PubMed Central

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms (Bacillus subtilis, B. cereus, B. pumilus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Aspergillus niger, Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O3/m3 O2, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process. PMID:28991199

Effect of temperature on life history parameters of adult Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in relation to geographic origin and vectorial capacity for bluetongue virus.

PubMed

Lysyk, T J; Danyk, T

2007-09-01

The effect of temperature on survival, oviposition, gonotrophic development, and a life history factor of vectorial capacity were examined in adult Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth & Jones) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) that originated from two geographic locations. Flies originating from the United States (Colorado) had slightly reduced survival after a bloodmeal compared with wild flies collected in southern Alberta (AB), Canada. Survival of AB flies declined in a curvilinear manner with temperature, whereas survival of U.S. flies showed a linear response to temperature. The survivorship curve of the AB flies more closely followed a Weibull distribution than an exponential, indicating survival was age-dependent. Survivorship of the U.S. flies followed an exponential distribution. Females from both sources laid similar numbers of eggs throughout their life. The first eggs were laid by females from both sources at 31.9 degree-day (DD)9.3. Dissections of blood-fed flies reared at various temperatures indicated that flies from both sources were 90% gravid at 32 DD9.3. Relationships among temperature and life history components of vectorial capacity were similar among flies from the two sources and indicated that vectorial capacity would be approximately 1.8-2.6-fold greater in a southern U.S. climate compared with southwestern Canada due solely to the effects of temperature on the life history of C. sonorensis. Using life history estimates derived from Weibull model had little effect on estimating vectorial capacity, whereas using estimates derived from the exponential model slightly overestimated vectorial capacity.

A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-11-01

A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

[Analysis of Time-to-onset of Interstitial Lung Disease after the Administration of Small Molecule Molecularly-targeted Drugs].

PubMed

Komada, Fusao

2018-01-01

　The aim of this study was to investigate the time-to-onset of drug-induced interstitial lung disease (DILD) following the administration of small molecule molecularly-targeted drugs via the use of the spontaneous adverse reaction reporting system of the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database. DILD datasets for afatinib, alectinib, bortezomib, crizotinib, dasatinib, erlotinib, everolimus, gefitinib, imatinib, lapatinib, nilotinib, osimertinib, sorafenib, sunitinib, temsirolimus, and tofacitinib were used to calculate the median onset times of DILD and the Weibull distribution parameters, and to perform the hierarchical cluster analysis. The median onset times of DILD for afatinib, bortezomib, crizotinib, erlotinib, gefitinib, and nilotinib were within one month. The median onset times of DILD for dasatinib, everolimus, lapatinib, osimertinib, and temsirolimus ranged from 1 to 2 months. The median onset times of the DILD for alectinib, imatinib, and tofacitinib ranged from 2 to 3 months. The median onset times of the DILD for sunitinib and sorafenib ranged from 8 to 9 months. Weibull distributions for these drugs when using the cluster analysis showed that there were 4 clusters. Cluster 1 described a subgroup with early to later onset DILD and early failure type profiles or a random failure type profile. Cluster 2 exhibited early failure type profiles or a random failure type profile with early onset DILD. Cluster 3 exhibited a random failure type profile or wear out failure type profiles with later onset DILD. Cluster 4 exhibited an early failure type profile or a random failure type profile with the latest onset DILD.

Effect of fabrication pressure on the fatigue performance of Cemex XL acrylic bone cement.

PubMed

Lewis, Gladius; Janna, S I

2004-01-01

During a cemented arthroplasty, the prepared polymerizing dough of acrylic bone cement is subjected to pressurization in a number of ways; first, during delivery into the freshly prepared bone bed, second, during packing in that bed (either digitally or with the aid of a mechanical device), and, third, during the insertion of the prosthesis. Only a few studies have reported on the influence of the level of pressurization experienced during these events (which, depending on the cementing technique used, has been put at between 8 and 273 kPa) on various properties of the cement. That was the focus of the present study, in which the fully reversed tension-compression (+/-15 MPa; 5 Hz) fatigue lives (expressed as number of cycles to fracture, N(f)) of rectangular cross-sectioned "dog-bone" specimens (Type V, per ASTM D 638) fabricated from Cemex XL cement, at pressure applied continuously to the cement dough during curing in the specimen mold, p=75,150, and 300 kPa, were determined. The N(f) results were analyzed using the linearized transformation of the three-parameter Weibull relationship to obtain estimates of the Weibull mean, N(WM), which was taken to be the index of fatigue performance of the specimen set. Over the range of p studied, N(WM) increased as p increased (for example, from 329,118 cycles when p was 75 kPa to 388,496 cycles when p was 300 kPa); however, the increase was not significant over any pair of p increment steps (Mann-Whitney U-test; alpha<0.05).

Use of partial AUC to demonstrate bioequivalence of Zolpidem Tartrate Extended Release formulations.

PubMed

Lionberger, Robert A; Raw, Andre S; Kim, Stephanie H; Zhang, Xinyuan; Yu, Lawrence X

2012-04-01

FDA's bioequivalence recommendation for Zolpidem Tartrate Extended Release Tablets is the first to use partial AUC (pAUC) metrics for determining bioequivalence of modified-release dosage forms. Modeling and simulation studies were performed to aid in understanding the need for pAUC measures and also the proper pAUC truncation times. Deconvolution techniques, In Vitro/In Vivo Correlations, and the CAT (Compartmental Absorption and Transit) model were used to predict the PK profiles for zolpidem. Models were validated using in-house data submitted to the FDA. Using dissolution profiles expressed by the Weibull model as input for the CAT model, dissolution spaces were derived for simulated test formulations. The AUC(0-1.5) parameter was indicative of IR characteristics of early exposure and effectively distinguished among formulations that produced different pharmacodynamic effects. The AUC(1.5-t) parameter ensured equivalence with respect to the sustained release phase of Ambien CR. The variability of AUC(0-1.5) is higher than other PK parameters, but is reasonable for use in an equivalence test. In addition to the traditional PK parameters of AUCinf and Cmax, AUC(0-1.5) and AUC(1.5-t) are recommended to provide bioequivalence measures with respect to label indications for Ambien CR: onset of sleep and sleep maintenance.

Inter- and intra-species variability in heat resistance and the effect of heat treatment intensity on subsequent growth of Byssochlamys fulva and Byssochlamys nivea.

PubMed

Santos, Juliana L P; Samapundo, Simbarashe; Gülay, Sonay M; Van Impe, Jan; Sant'Ana, Anderson S; Devlieghere, Frank

2018-04-21

The major aims of this study were to assess inter- and intra-species variability of heat resistant moulds (HRMs), Byssochlamys fulva and Byssochlamys nivea, with regards to (i) heat resistance and (ii) effect of heat treatment intensity on subsequent outgrowth. Four-week-old ascospores were suspended in buffered glucose solution (13° Brix, pH 3.5) and heat treated in a thermal cycler adjusted at 85 °C, 90 °C and 93 °C. Two variants of the Weibull model were fitted to the survival data and the following inactivation parameters estimated: b (inactivation rate, min -1 ), n (curve shape) and δ (the time taken for first decimal reduction, min). In addition to the assessment of heat resistance, outgrowth of Byssochlamys sp. from ascospores heated at 70 °C, 75 °C, 80 °C, 85 °C and 90 °C for 10 min and at 93 °C for 30 and 70 s was determined at 22 °C for up to 30 days. The Baranyi and Roberts model was fitted to the growth data to estimate the radial growth rates (μ max , mm.day -1 ) and lag times (λ, days). Inter-species variability and significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed for both inactivation and growth estimated parameters among B. fulva and B. nivea strains. The effect of heat treatment intensity on outgrowth of B. fulva strains was more apparent at the most intense heat treatment evaluated (90 °C/10 min), which was also the condition in which greater dispersion of the estimated kinetic parameters was observed. On the other hand, B. nivea strains were more affected by heating, resulting in greater variability of growth parameters estimated at different heating intensities and in very long lag phases (up to 25 days). The results show that inter- and intra-species variability in the kinetic parameters of Byssochlamys sp. needs to be taken into account for more accurate spoilage prediction. Furthermore, the effect of thermal treatments on subsequent outgrowth from ascospores should be explored in combination with other relevant factors such as °Brix and oxygen to develop thermal processes and storage conditions which can prevent the growth of HRMs and spoilage of heat treated food products. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Universal self-similarity of propagating populations.

PubMed

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-07-01

This paper explores the universal self-similarity of propagating populations. The following general propagation model is considered: particles are randomly emitted from the origin of a d-dimensional Euclidean space and propagate randomly and independently of each other in space; all particles share a statistically common--yet arbitrary--motion pattern; each particle has its own random propagation parameters--emission epoch, motion frequency, and motion amplitude. The universally self-similar statistics of the particles' displacements and first passage times (FPTs) are analyzed: statistics which are invariant with respect to the details of the displacement and FPT measurements and with respect to the particles' underlying motion pattern. Analysis concludes that the universally self-similar statistics are governed by Poisson processes with power-law intensities and by the Fréchet and Weibull extreme-value laws.

Transmission overhaul estimates for partial and full replacement at repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1991-01-01

Timely transmission overhauls increase in-flight service reliability greater than the calculated design reliabilities of the individual aircraft transmission components. Although necessary for aircraft safety, transmission overhauls contribute significantly to aircraft expense. Predictions of a transmission's maintenance needs at the design stage should enable the development of more cost effective and reliable transmissions in the future. The frequency is estimated of overhaul along with the number of transmissions or components needed to support the overhaul schedule. Two methods based on the two parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life are used to estimate the time between transmission overhauls. These methods predict transmission lives for maintenance schedules which repair the transmission with a complete system replacement or repair only failed components of the transmission. An example illustrates the methods.

Failure rate analysis of Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft performance during orbital life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, H. P.; Timmins, A. R.

1976-01-01

Space life performance data on 57 Goddard Space Flight Center spacecraft are analyzed from the standpoint of determining an appropriate reliability model and the associated reliability parameters. Data from published NASA reports, which cover the space performance of GSFC spacecraft launched in the 1960-1970 decade, form the basis of the analyses. The results of the analyses show that the time distribution of 449 malfunctions, of which 248 were classified as failures (not necessarily catastrophic), follow a reliability growth pattern that can be described with either the Duane model or a Weibull distribution. The advantages of both mathematical models are used in order to: identify space failure rates, observe chronological trends, and compare failure rates with those experienced during the prelaunch environmental tests of the flight model spacecraft.

Hazard function analysis for flood planning under nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-05-01

The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) involves a probabilistic assessment of the "time to failure" or "return period," T, of an event of interest. HFA is used in epidemiology, manufacturing, medicine, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. For a stationary process, the probability distribution function (pdf) of the return period always follows an exponential distribution, the same is not true for nonstationary processes. When the process of interest, X, exhibits nonstationary behavior, HFA can provide a complementary approach to risk analysis with analytical tools particularly useful for hydrological applications. After a general introduction to HFA, we describe a new mathematical linkage between the magnitude of the flood event, X, and its return period, T, for nonstationary processes. We derive the probabilistic properties of T for a nonstationary one-parameter exponential model of X, and then use both Monte-Carlo simulation and HFA to generalize the behavior of T when X arises from a nonstationary two-parameter lognormal distribution. For this case, our findings suggest that a two-parameter Weibull distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the pdf of T. We document how HFA can provide an alternative approach to characterize the probabilistic properties of both nonstationary flood series and the resulting pdf of T.

CARES - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, N. N.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings. The program uses results from a commercial structural analysis program (MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS) to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. A multiple material capability allows the finite element model reliability to be a function of many different ceramic material statistical characterizations. The reliability analysis uses element stress, temperature, area, and volume output, which are obtained from two dimensional shell and three dimensional solid isoparametric or axisymmetric finite elements. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. The shear-sensitive Batdorf model requires a user-selected flaw geometry and a mixed-mode fracture criterion. Flaws intersecting the surface and imperfections embedded in the volume can be modeled. The total strain energy release rate theory is used as a mixed mode fracture criterion for co-planar crack extension. Out-of-plane crack extension criteria are approximated by a simple equation with a semi-empirical constant that can model the maximum tangential stress theory, the minimum strain energy density criterion, the maximum strain energy release rate theory, or experimental results. For comparison, Griffith's maximum tensile stress theory, the principle of independent action, and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. A more limited program, CARES/PC (COSMIC number LEW-15248) runs on a personal computer and estimates ceramic material properties from three-point bend bar data. CARES/PC does not perform fast fracture reliability estimation. CARES is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been implemented on DEC VAX series computers under VMS and on IBM 370 series computers under VM/CMS. On a VAX, CARES requires 10Mb of main memory. Five MSC/NASTRAN example problems and two ANSYS example problems are provided. There are two versions of CARES supplied on the distribution tape, CARES1 and CARES2. CARES2 contains sub-elements and CARES1 does not. CARES is available on a 9-track 1600 BPI VAX FILES-11 format magnetic tape (standard media) or in VAX BACKUP format on a TK50 tape cartridge. The program requires a FORTRAN 77 compiler and about 12Mb memory. CARES was developed in 1990. DEC, VAX and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. IBM 370 is a trademark of International Business Machines. MSC/NASTRAN is a trademark of MacNeal-Schwendler Corporation. ANSYS is a trademark of Swanson Analysis Systems, Inc.

The shape parameter and its modification for defining coastal profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Türker, Umut; Kabdaşli, M. Sedat

2009-03-01

The shape parameter is important for the theoretical description of the sandy coastal profiles. This parameter has previously been defined as a function of the sediment-settling velocity. However, the settling velocity cannot be characterized over a wide range of sediment grains. This, in turn, limits the calculation of the shape parameter over a wide range. This paper provides a simpler and faster analytical equation to describe the shape parameter. The validity of the equation has been tested and compared with the previously estimated values given in both graphical and tabular forms. The results of this study indicate that the analytical solutions of the shape parameter improved the usability of profile better than graphical solutions, predicting better results both at the surf zone and offshore.

Evaluating the risk of death via the hematopoietic syndrome mode for prolonged exposure of nuclear workers to radiation delivered at very low rates.

PubMed

Scott, B R; Lyzlov, A F; Osovets, S V

1998-05-01

During a Phase-I effort, studies were planned to evaluate deterministic (nonstochastic) effects of chronic exposure of nuclear workers at the Mayak atomic complex in the former Soviet Union to relatively high levels (> 0.25 Gy) of ionizing radiation. The Mayak complex has been used, since the late 1940's, to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. Workers at Site A of the complex were involved in plutonium breeding using nuclear reactors, and some were exposed to relatively large doses of gamma rays plus relatively small neutron doses. The Weibull normalized-dose model, which has been set up to evaluate the risk of specific deterministic effects of combined, continuous exposure of humans to alpha, beta, and gamma radiations, is here adapted for chronic exposure to gamma rays and neutrons during repeated 6-h work shifts--as occurred for some nuclear workers at Site A. Using the adapted model, key conclusions were reached that will facilitate a Phase-II study of deterministic effects among Mayak workers. These conclusions include the following: (1) neutron doses may be more important for Mayak workers than for Japanese A-bomb victims in Hiroshima and can be accounted for using an adjusted dose (which accounts for neutron relative biological effectiveness); (2) to account for dose-rate effects, normalized dose X (a dimensionless fraction of an LD50 or ED50) can be evaluated in terms of an adjusted dose; (3) nonlinear dose-response curves for the risk of death via the hematopoietic mode can be converted to linear dose-response curves (for low levels of risk) using a newly proposed dimensionless dose, D = X(V), in units of Oklad (where D is pronounced "deh"), and V is the shape parameter in the Weibull model; (4) for X < or = Xo, where Xo is the threshold normalized dose, D = 0; (5) unlike absorbed dose, the dose D can be averaged over different Mayak workers in order to calculate the average risk of death via the hematopoietic mode for the population exposed at Site A; and (6) the expected cases of death via the hematopoietic syndrome mode for Mayak workers chronically exposed during work shifts at Site A to gamma rays and neutrons can be predicted using ln(2)B M[D]; where B (pronounced "beh") is the number of workers at risk (criticality accident victims excluded); and M[D] is the average (mean) value of D (averaged over the worker population at risk, for Site A, for the time period considered). These results can be used to facilitate a Phase II study of deterministic radiation effects among Mayak workers chronically exposed to gamma rays and neutrons.

Extracting survival parameters from isothermal, isobaric, and "iso-concentration" inactivation experiments by the "3 end points method".

PubMed

Corradini, M G; Normand, M D; Newcomer, C; Schaffner, D W; Peleg, M

2009-01-01

Theoretically, if an organism's resistance can be characterized by 3 survival parameters, they can be found by solving 3 simultaneous equations that relate the final survival ratio to the lethal agent's intensity. (For 2 resistance parameters, 2 equations will suffice.) In practice, the inevitable experimental scatter would distort the results of such a calculation or render the method unworkable. Averaging the results obtained with more than 3 final survival ratio triplet combinations, determined in four or more treatments, can remove this impediment. This can be confirmed by the ability of a kinetic inactivation model derived from the averaged parameters to predict survival patterns under conditions not employed in their determination, as demonstrated with published isothermal survival data of Clostridium botulinum spores, isobaric data of Escherichia coli under HPP, and Pseudomonas exposed to hydrogen peroxide. Both the method and the underlying assumption that the inactivation followed a Weibull-Log logistic (WeLL) kinetics were confirmed in this way, indicating that when an appropriate survival model is available, it is possible to predict the entire inactivation curves from several experimental final survival ratios alone. Where applicable, the method could simplify the experimental procedure and lower the cost of microbial resistance determinations. In principle, the methodology can be extended to deteriorative chemical reactions if they too can be characterized by 2 or 3 kinetic parameters.

Sol-gel derived bioactive coating on zirconia: Effect on flexural strength and cell proliferation.

PubMed

Shahramian, Khalil; Leminen, Heidi; Meretoja, Ville; Linderbäck, Paula; Kangasniemi, Ilkka; Lassila, Lippo; Abdulmajeed, Aous; Närhi, Timo

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of sol-gel derived bioactive coatings on the biaxial flexural strength and fibroblast proliferation of zirconia, aimed to be used as an implant abutment material. Yttrium stabilized zirconia disc-shaped specimens were cut, ground, sintered, and finally cleansed ultrasonically in each of acetone and ethanol for 5 minutes. Three experimental groups (n = 15) were fabricated, zirconia with sol-gel derived titania (TiO 2 ) coating, zirconia with sol-gel derived zirconia (ZrO 2 ) coating, and non-coated zirconia as a control. The surfaces of the specimens were analyzed through images taken using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), and a non-contact tapping mode atomic force microscope (AFM) was used to record the surface topography and roughness of the coated specimens. Biaxial flexural strength values were determined using the piston-on-three ball technique. Human gingival fibroblast proliferation on the surface of the specimens was evaluated using AlamarBlue assay™. Data were analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's post-hoc test. Additionally, the biaxial flexural strength data was also statistically analyzed with the Weibull distribution. The biaxial flexural strength of zirconia specimens was unaffected (p > 0.05). Weibull modulus of TiO 2 coated and ZrO 2 coated groups (5.7 and 5.4, respectively) were lower than the control (8.0). Specimens coated with ZrO 2 showed significantly lower fibroblast proliferation compared to other groups (p < 0.05). In conclusion, sol-gel derived coatings have no influence on the flexural strength of zirconia. ZrO 2 coated specimens showed significantly lower cell proliferation after 12 days than TiO 2 coated or non-coated control. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 105B: 2401-2407, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Flexural resistance of heat-pressed and CAD-CAM lithium disilicate with different translucencies.

PubMed

Fabian Fonzar, Riccardo; Carrabba, Michele; Sedda, Maurizio; Ferrari, Marco; Goracci, Cecilia; Vichi, Alessandro

2017-01-01

To compare flexural strength of CAD-CAM and heat-pressed lithium disilicate. For Pressed specimens (Group A), acrylate polymer blocks were cut with a saw in bars shape. Sprueing, investing and preheating procedures were carried out following manufacturer's instructions. IPS e.max Press ingots (Ivoclar-Vivadent) were divided into subgroups (n=15) according to translucency: A.1=HT-A3; A.2=MT-A3; A.3=LT-A3; A.4=MO2. Ingots were then pressed following manufacturer's instructions. For CAD-CAM specimens (Group B) blocks of IPS e.max CAD (Ivoclar-Vivadent) were divided into subgroups: B.1=HT-A3; B.2=MT-A3; B.3=LT-A3; B.4=MO2. Specimens (n=15) were obtained by cutting the blocks with a saw. Final crystallization was performed following manufacturer's instructions. Both Press and CAD specimens were polished and finished with silica carbide papers of increasing grit. Final dimensions of the specimens were 4.0±0.2mm, 1.2±0.2mm, and 16.0±0.2mm. Specimens were tested using a three-point bending test. Flexural strength, Weibull modulus, and Weibull characteristic strength were calculated. Flexural strength data were statistically analyzed. The overall means of Press and CAD specimens did not differ significantly. Within the Press group different translucencies were found to have similar flexural strength. Within the CAD group, statistically significant differences emerged among the tested translucencies (p<0.001). Specifically, MT had significantly higher flexural strength than HT and MO. Also, LT exhibited significantly higher flexural strength than MO. The choice between IPS e.max Press and IPS e.max CAD formulations can be based on different criteria than flexural resistance. Within each formulation, for IPS e.max Press translucency does not affect the flexural strength while for IPS e.max CAD it is an influential factor. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fracture Strength of Single-Crystal Silicon Carbide Microspecimens at Room and Elevated Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Sharpe, William N., Jr.; Beheim, Glenn M.; Evans, Laura J.; Jadaan, Osama M.

2007-01-01

Three shapes of tensile specimens were tested--curved with a very low stress concentration factor and straight with either a circular hole or an elliptical hole. The nominal thickness was 125 micron with a net section 100 micron wide; the overall length of these microspecimens was 3.1 mm. They were fabricated by an improved version of deep reactive ion etching, which produced specimens with smooth sidewalls and cross-sections having a slightly trapezoidal shape that was exaggerated inside the holes. The novel test setup used a vertical load train extending into a resistance furnace. The specimens had wedge-shaped ends which fit into ceramic grips. The fixed grip was mounted on a ceramic post, and the movable grip was connected to a load cell and actuator outside the furnace with a ceramic-encased nichrome wire. The same arrangement was used for tests at 24 and at 1000 C. The strengths of the curved specimens for two batches of material (made with slightly different processes) were 0.66+/-0.12 GPa and 0.45+/-0.20 GPa respectively at 24 C with identical values at 1000 C. The fracture strengths of the circular-hole and elliptical-hole specimens (computed from the stress concentration factors and measured loads at failure) were approximately 1.2 GPa with slight decreases at the higher temperature. Fractographic examinations showed failures initiating on the surface--primarily at corners. Weibull predictions of fracture strengths for the hole specimens based on the properties of the curved specimens were reasonably effective for the circular holes, but not for the elliptical holes.

Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

2014-09-01

The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

Robustness of power systems under a democratic-fiber-bundle-like model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaǧan, Osman

2015-06-01

We consider a power system with N transmission lines whose initial loads (i.e., power flows) L1,...,LN are independent and identically distributed with PL(x ) =P [L ≤x ] . The capacity Ci defines the maximum flow allowed on line i and is assumed to be given by Ci=(1 +α ) Li , with α >0 . We study the robustness of this power system against random attacks (or failures) that target a p fraction of the lines, under a democratic fiber-bundle-like model. Namely, when a line fails, the load it was carrying is redistributed equally among the remaining lines. Our contributions are as follows. (i) We show analytically that the final breakdown of the system always takes place through a first-order transition at the critical attack size p=1 -E/[L ] maxx(P [L >x ](α x +E [L |L >x ]) ) , where E [.] is the expectation operator; (ii) we derive conditions on the distribution PL(x ) for which the first-order breakdown of the system occurs abruptly without any preceding diverging rate of failure; (iii) we provide a detailed analysis of the robustness of the system under three specific load distributions—uniform, Pareto, and Weibull—showing that with the minimum load Lmin and mean load E [L ] fixed, Pareto distribution is the worst (in terms of robustness) among the three, whereas Weibull distribution is the best with shape parameter selected relatively large; (iv) we provide numerical results that confirm our mean-field analysis; and (v) we show that p is maximized when the load distribution is a Dirac delta function centered at E [L ] , i.e., when all lines carry the same load. This last finding is particularly surprising given that heterogeneity is known to lead to high robustness against random failures in many other systems.

Active structural control of a floating wind turbine with a stroke-limited hybrid mass damper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yaqi; He, Erming

2017-12-01

Floating wind turbines are subjected to more severe structural loads than fixed-bottom wind turbines due to additional degrees of freedom (DOFs) of their floating foundations. It's a promising way of using active structural control method to improve the structural responses of floating wind turbines. This paper investigates an active vibration control strategy for a barge-type floating wind turbine by setting a stroke-limited hybrid mass damper (HMD) in the turbine's nacelle. Firstly, a contact nonlinear modeling method for the floating wind turbine with clearance between the HMD and the stroke limiters is presented based on Euler-Lagrange's equations and an active control model of the whole system is established. The structural parameters are validated for the active control model and an equivalent load coefficient method is presented for identifying the wind and wave disturbances. Then, a state-feedback linear quadratic regulator (LQR) controller is designed to reduce vibration and loads of the wind turbine, and two optimization methods are combined to optimize the weighting coefficients when considering the stroke of the HMD and the active control power consumption as constraints. Finally, the designed controllers are implemented in high fidelity simulations under five typical wind and wave conditions. The results show that active HMD control strategy is shown to be achievable and the designed controllers could further reduce more vibration and loads of the wind turbine under the constraints of stroke limitation and power consumption. "V"-shaped distribution of the TMD suppression effect is inconsistent with the Weibull distribution in practical offshore floating wind farms, and the active HMD control could overcome this shortcoming of the passive TMD.

Universality of market superstatistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denys, Mateusz; Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard; Jagielski, Maciej; Stanley, H. Eugene

2016-10-01

We use a key concept of the continuous-time random walk formalism, i.e., continuous and fluctuating interevent times in which mutual dependence is taken into account, to model market fluctuation data when traders experience excessive (or superthreshold) losses or excessive (or superthreshold) profits. We analytically derive a class of "superstatistics" that accurately model empirical market activity data supplied by Bogachev, Ludescher, Tsallis, and Bunde that exhibit transition thresholds. We measure the interevent times between excessive losses and excessive profits and use the mean interevent discrete (or step) time as a control variable to derive a universal description of empirical data collapse. Our dominant superstatistic value is a power-law corrected by the lower incomplete gamma function, which asymptotically tends toward robustness but initially gives an exponential. We find that the scaling shape exponent that drives our superstatistics subordinates itself and a "superscaling" configuration emerges. Thanks to the Weibull copula function, our approach reproduces the empirically proven dependence between successive interevent times. We also use the approach to calculate a dynamic risk function and hence the dynamic VaR, which is significant in financial risk analysis. Our results indicate that there is a functional (but not literal) balance between excessive profits and excessive losses that can be described using the same body of superstatistics but different calibration values and driving parameters. We also extend our original approach to cover empirical seismic activity data (e.g., given by Corral), the interevent times of which range from minutes to years. Superpositioned superstatistics is another class of superstatistics that protects power-law behavior both for short- and long-time behaviors. These behaviors describe well the collapse of seismic activity data and capture so-called volatility clustering phenomena.

Solid lipid nanoparticles loaded with insulin by sodium cholate-phosphatidylcholine-based mixed micelles: preparation and characterization.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Gong, Tao; Wang, Changguang; Zhong, Zhirong; Zhang, Zhirong

2007-08-01

Solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) loaded with insulin-mixed micelles (Ins-MMs) were prepared by a novel reverse micelle-double emulsion method, in which sodium cholate (SC) and soybean phosphatidylcholine (SPC) were employed to improve the liposolubility of insulin, and the mixture of stearic acid and palmitic acid were employed to prepare insulin loaded solid lipid nanoparticles (Ins-MM-SLNs). Some of the formulation parameters were optimized to obtain high quality nanoparticles. The particle size and zeta potential measured by photon correlation spectroscopy (PCS) were 114.7+/-4.68 nm and -51.36+/-2.04 mV, respectively. Nanospheres observed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed extremely spherical shape. The entrapment efficiency (EE%) and drug loading capacity (DL%) determined with high performance liquid chromatogram (HPLC) by modified ultracentrifuge method were 97.78+/-0.37% and 18.92+/-0.07%, respectively. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) of Ins-MM-SLNs indicated no tendency of recrystallisation. The core-shell drug loading pattern of the SLNs was confirmed by fluorescence spectra and polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) which also proved the integrity of insulin after being incorporated into lipid carrier. The drug release behavior was studied by in situ and externally sink method and the release pattern of drug was found to follow Weibull and Higuchi equations. Results of stability evaluation showed a relatively long-term stability after storage at 4 degrees C for 6 months. In conclusion, SLNs with small particle size, excellent physical stability, high entrapment efficiency, good loading capacity for protein drug can be produced by this novel reverse micelle-double emulsion method in present study.

Geosocial process and its regularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikulina, Marina; Vikulin, Alexander; Dolgaya, Anna

2015-04-01

Natural disasters and social events (wars, revolutions, genocides, epidemics, fires, etc.) accompany each other throughout human civilization, thus reflecting the close relationship of these phenomena that are seemingly of different nature. In order to study this relationship authors compiled and analyzed the list of the 2,400 natural disasters and social phenomena weighted by their magnitude that occurred during the last XXXVI centuries of our history. Statistical analysis was performed separately for each aggregate (natural disasters and social phenomena), and for particular statistically representative types of events. There was 5 + 5 = 10 types. It is shown that the numbers of events in the list are distributed by logarithmic law: the bigger the event, the less likely it happens. For each type of events and each aggregate the existence of periodicities with periods of 280 ± 60 years was established. Statistical analysis of the time intervals between adjacent events for both aggregates showed good agreement with Weibull-Gnedenko distribution with shape parameter less than 1, which is equivalent to the conclusion about the grouping of events at small time intervals. Modeling of statistics of time intervals with Pareto distribution allowed to identify the emergent property for all events in the aggregate. This result allowed the authors to make conclusion about interaction between natural disasters and social phenomena. The list of events compiled by authors and first identified properties of cyclicity, grouping and interaction process reflected by this list is the basis of modeling essentially unified geosocial process at high enough statistical level. Proof of interaction between "lifeless" Nature and Society is fundamental and provided a new approach to forecasting demographic crises with taking into account both natural disasters and social phenomena.

Recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piegari, Ester; Di Maio, Rosa; Avella, Adolfo

2014-05-01

The recurrence time statistics of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events is analyzed by performing a numerical analysis in the parameter space and estimating Fano factor behaviors. The model is an extended version of the OFC model, which is a paradigm for SOC in non-conserved systems, but it works differently from the original OFC model as a finite value of the driving rate is applied. By driving the system to instability with different rates, the model exhibits a smooth transition from a correlated to an uncorrelated regime as the effect of a change in predominant mechanisms to propagate instability. If the rate at which instability is approached is small, chain processes dominate the landslide dynamics, and power laws govern probability distributions. However, the power-law regime typical of SOC-like systems is found in a range of return intervals that becomes shorter and shorter by increasing the values of the driving rates. Indeed, if the rates at which instability is approached are large, domino processes are no longer active in propagating instability, and large events simply occur because a large number of cells simultaneously reach instability. Such a gradual loss of the effectiveness of the chain propagation mechanism causes the system gradually enter to an uncorrelated regime where recurrence time distributions are characterized by Weibull behaviors. Simulation results are qualitatively compared with those from a recent analysis performed by Witt et al.(Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 35, 1138, 2010) for the first complete databases of landslide occurrences over a period as large as fifty years. From the comparison with the extensive landslide data set, the numerical analysis suggests that statistics of such landslide data seem to be described by a crossover region between a correlated regime and an uncorrelated regime, where recurrence time distributions are characterized by power-law and Weibull behaviors for short and long return times, respectively. Finally, in such a region of the parameter space, clear indications of temporal correlations and clustering by the Fano factor behaviors support, at least in part, the analysis performed by Witt et al. (2010).

Contributions of stress corrosion and cyclic fatigue to subcritical crack growth in a dental glass-ceramic.

PubMed

Joshi, Gaurav V; Duan, Yuanyuan; Della Bona, Alvaro; Hill, Thomas J; St John, Kenneth; Griggs, Jason A

2014-08-01

The objective of this study was to test the following hypotheses: (1) both cyclic degradation and stress-corrosion mechanisms result in subcritical crack growth (SCG) in a fluorapatite glass-ceramic (IPS e.max ZirPress, Ivoclar-Vivadent) and (2) there is an interactive effect of stress corrosion and cyclic fatigue to accelerate subcritical crack growth. Rectangular beam specimens were fabricated using the lost-wax process. Two groups of specimens (N=30/group) with polished (15μm) or air-abraded surface were tested under rapid monotonic loading. Additional polished specimens were subjected to cyclic loading at two frequencies, 2Hz (N=44) and 10Hz (N=36), and at various stress amplitudes. All tests were performed using a fully articulated four-point flexure fixture in deionized water at 37°C. The SCG parameters were determined using the ratio of inert strength Weibull modulus to lifetime Weibull modulus. A general log-linear model was fit to the fatigue lifetime data including time to failure, frequency, peak stress, and the product of frequency and logarithm of stress in ALTA PRO software. SCG parameters determined were n=21.7 and A=4.99×10(-5) for 2Hz, and n=19.1 and A=7.39×10(-6) for 10Hz. After fitting the general log-linear model to cyclic fatigue data, the coefficients of the frequency term (α1), the stress term (α2), and the interaction term (α3) had estimates and 95% confidence intervals of α1=-3.16 (-15.1, 6.30), α2=-21.2 (-34.9, -9.73), and α3=0.820 (-1.59, 4.02). Only α2 was significantly different from zero. (1) Cyclic fatigue does not have a significant effect on SCG in the fluorapatite glass-ceramic evaluated and (2) there was no interactive effect between cyclic degradation and stress corrosion for this material. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of HF Treatments on Tensile Strength of Hi-Nicalon Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.

1998-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having a dual BN/SiC surface coating, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, have been measured at room temperature. These fibers were also treated with HF for 24 h followed by tensile strength measurements. Strengths of uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers extracted from celsian matrix composites, by dissolving away the matrix in HF for 24 h, were also determined. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. The Hi-Nicalon/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 3.04 q 0.53 GPa and Weibull modulus of 6.66. After HF treatments, the average strengths of the uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers were 2.69 +/- 0.67 GPa and 2.80 +/- 0.53 GPa and the Weibull moduli were 4.93 and 5.96, respectively. The BN/SiC coated fibers extracted from the celsian matrix composite exhibited a strength of 2.38 +/- 0.40 GPa and a Weibull modulus of 7.15. The strength of the uncoated Hi-Nicalon fibers in the composite was so severely degraded that they disintegrated into small fragments during extraction with HF. The uncoated fibers probably undergo mechanical surface damage during hot pressing of the composites. Also, the BN layer on the coated fibers acts as a compliant layer which protects the fibers from mechanical damage during composite processing. The elemental composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were deten-nined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Strengths of fibers calculated using average and measured fiber diameters were in good agreement. Thus, the strength of fibers can be evaluated using an average fiber diameter instead of the measured diameter of each filament.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Comparison of Thermal and Non-Thermal Processing of Swine Feed and the Use of Selected Feed Additives on Inactivation of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV).

PubMed

Trudeau, Michaela P; Verma, Harsha; Sampedro, Fernando; Urriola, Pedro E; Shurson, Gerald C; McKelvey, Jessica; Pillai, Suresh D; Goyal, Sagar M

2016-01-01

Infection with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes diarrhea, vomiting, and high mortality in suckling pigs. Contaminated feed has been suggested as a vehicle of transmission for PEDV. The objective of this study was to compare thermal and electron beam processing, and the inclusion of feed additives on the inactivation of PEDV in feed. Feed samples were spiked with PEDV and then heated to 120-145°C for up to 30 min or irradiated at 0-50 kGy. Another set of feed samples spiked with PEDV and mixed with Ultracid P (Nutriad), Activate DA (Novus International), KEM-GEST (Kemin Agrifood), Acid Booster (Agri-Nutrition), sugar or salt was incubated at room temperature (~25°C) for up to 21 days. At the end of incubation, the virus titers were determined by inoculation of Vero-81 cells and the virus inactivation kinetics were modeled using the Weibull distribution model. The Weibull kinetic parameter delta represented the time or eBeam dose required to reduce virus concentration by 1 log. For thermal processing, delta values ranged from 16.52 min at 120°C to 1.30 min at 145°C. For eBeam processing, a target dose of 50 kGy reduced PEDV concentration by 3 log. All additives tested were effective in reducing the survival of PEDV when compared with the control sample (delta = 17.23 days). Activate DA (0.81) and KEM-GEST (3.28) produced the fastest inactivation. In conclusion, heating swine feed at temperatures over 130°C or eBeam processing of feed with a dose over 50 kGy are effective processing steps to reduce PEDV survival. Additionally, the inclusion of selected additives can decrease PEDV survivability.

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Estimation of renal allograft half-life: fact or fiction?

PubMed

Azancot, M Antonieta; Cantarell, Carme; Perelló, Manel; Torres, Irina B; Serón, Daniel; Seron, Daniel; Moreso, Francesc; Arias, Manuel; Campistol, Josep M; Curto, Jordi; Hernandez, Domingo; Morales, José M; Sanchez-Fructuoso, Ana; Abraira, Victor

2011-09-01

Renal allograft half-life time (t½) is the most straightforward representation of long-term graft survival. Since some statistical models overestimate this parameter, we compare different approaches to evaluate t½. Patients with a 1-year functioning graft transplanted in Spain during 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002 were included. Exponential, Weibull, gamma, lognormal and log-logistic models censoring the last year of follow-up were evaluated. The goodness of fit of these models was evaluated according to the Cox-Snell residuals and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) was employed to compare these models. We included 4842 patients. Real t½ in 1990 was 14.2 years. Median t½ (95% confidence interval) in 1990 and 2002 was 15.8 (14.2-17.5) versus 52.6 (35.6-69.5) according to the exponential model (P < 0.001). No differences between 1990 and 2002 were observed when t½ was estimated with the other models. In 1990 and 2002, t½ was 14.0 (13.1-15.0) versus 18.0 (13.7-22.4) according to Weibull, 15.5 (13.9-17.1) versus 19.1 (15.6-22.6) according to gamma, 14.4 (13.3-15.6) versus 18.3 (14.2-22.3) according to the log-logistic and 15.2 (13.8-16.6) versus 18.8 (15.3-22.3) according to the lognormal models. The AIC confirmed that the exponential model had the lowest goodness of fit, while the other models yielded a similar result. The exponential model overestimates t½, especially in cohorts of patients with a short follow-up, while any of the other studied models allow a better estimation even in cohorts with short follow-up.

Inactivation kinetics of Vibrio vulnificus in phosphate-buffered saline at different freezing and storage temperatures and times.

PubMed

Seminario, Diana M; Balaban, Murat O; Rodrick, Gary

2011-03-01

Vibrio vulnificus (Vv) is a pathogen that can be found in raw oysters. Freezing can reduce Vv and increase the shelf life of oysters. The objective of this study was to develop predictive inactivation kinetic models for pure cultures of Vv at different frozen storage temperatures and times. Vv was diluted in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) to obtain about 10(7) CFU/mL. Samples were frozen at -10, -35, and -80 °C (different freezing rates), and stored at different temperatures. Survival of Vv was followed after freezing and storage at -10 °C (0, 3, 6, and 9 d) and at -35 and -80 °C (every week for 6 wk). For every treatment, time-temperature data was obtained using thermocouples in blank vials. Predictive models were developed using first-order, Weibull and Peleg inactivation kinetics. Different freezing temperatures did not significantly (α = 0.05) affect survival of Vv immediately after freezing. The combined effect of freezing and 1 wk frozen storage resulted in 1.5, 2.6, and 4.9 log10 reductions for samples stored at -80, -35, and -10 °C, respectively. Storage temperature was the critical parameter in survival of Vv. A modified Weibull model successfully predicted Vv survival during frozen storage: log10 Nt = log 10No - 1.22 - ([t/10{-1.163-0.0466T}][0.00025T(2) + 0.049325]). N(o) and N(t) are initial and time t (d) survival counts, T is frozen storage temperature, Celsius degree. Vibrio vulnificus can be inactivated by freezing. Models to predict survival of V. vulnificus at different freezing temperatures and times were developed. This is the first step towards the prediction of V. vulnificus related safety of frozen oysters.

Empirical models for fitting of oral concentration time curves with and without an intravenous reference.

PubMed

Weiss, Michael

2017-06-01

Appropriate model selection is important in fitting oral concentration-time data due to the complex character of the absorption process. When IV reference data are available, the problem is the selection of an empirical input function (absorption model). In the present examples a weighted sum of inverse Gaussian density functions (IG) was found most useful. It is shown that alternative models (gamma and Weibull density) are only valid if the input function is log-concave. Furthermore, it is demonstrated for the first time that the sum of IGs model can be also applied to fit oral data directly (without IV data). In the present examples, a weighted sum of two or three IGs was sufficient. From the parameters of this function, the model-independent measures AUC and mean residence time can be calculated. It turned out that a good fit of the data in the terminal phase is essential to avoid parameter biased estimates. The time course of fractional elimination rate and the concept of log-concavity have proved as useful tools in model selection.

Performance of mixed RF/FSO systems in exponentiated Weibull distributed channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jing; Zhao, Shang-Hong; Zhao, Wei-Hu; Liu, Yun; Li, Xuan

2017-12-01

This paper presented the performances of asymmetric mixed radio frequency (RF)/free-space optical (FSO) system with the amplify-and-forward relaying scheme. The RF channel undergoes Nakagami- m channel, and the Exponentiated Weibull distribution is adopted for the FSO component. The mathematical formulas for cumulative distribution function (CDF), probability density function (PDF) and moment generating function (MGF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are achieved. According to the end-to-end statistical characteristics, the new analytical expressions of outage probability are obtained. Under various modulation techniques, we derive the average bit-error-rate (BER) based on the Meijer's G function. The evaluation and simulation are provided for the system performance, and the aperture average effect is discussed as well.

Reliable Thermoelectric Module Design under Opposing Requirements from Structural and Thermoelectric Considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karri, Naveen K.; Mo, Changki

2018-06-01

Structural reliability of thermoelectric generation (TEG) systems still remains an issue, especially for applications such as large-scale industrial or automobile exhaust heat recovery, in which TEG systems are subject to dynamic loads and thermal cycling. Traditional thermoelectric (TE) system design and optimization techniques, focused on performance alone, could result in designs that may fail during operation as the geometric requirements for optimal performance (especially the power) are often in conflict with the requirements for mechanical reliability. This study focused on reducing the thermomechanical stresses in a TEG system without compromising the optimized system performance. Finite element simulations were carried out to study the effect of TE element (leg) geometry such as leg length and cross-sectional shape under constrained material volume requirements. Results indicated that the element length has a major influence on the element stresses whereas regular cross-sectional shapes have minor influence. The impact of TE element stresses on the mechanical reliability is evaluated using brittle material failure theory based on Weibull analysis. An alternate couple configuration that relies on the industry practice of redundant element design is investigated. Results showed that the alternate configuration considerably reduced the TE element and metallization stresses, thereby enhancing the structural reliability, with little trade-off in the optimized performance. The proposed alternate configuration could serve as a potential design modification for improving the reliability of systems optimized for thermoelectric performance.

A statistical comparison of two carbon fiber/epoxy fabrication techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodge, A. J.

1991-01-01

A statistical comparison of the compression strengths of specimens that were fabricated by either a platen press or an autoclave were performed on IM6/3501-6 carbon/epoxy composites of 16-ply (0,+45,90,-45)(sub S2) lay-up configuration. The samples were cured with the same parameters and processing materials. It was found that the autoclaved panels were thicker than the platen press cured samples. Two hundred samples of each type of cure process were compression tested. The autoclaved samples had an average strength of 450 MPa (65.5 ksi), while the press cured samples had an average strength of 370 MPa (54.0 ksi). A Weibull analysis of the data showed that there is only a 30 pct. probability that the two types of cure systems yield specimens that can be considered from the same family.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Harry C.; Fang, Ho T.

1991-01-01

The results of a four year program to improve the strength and reliability of injection-molded silicon nitride are summarized. Statistically designed processing experiments were performed to identify and optimize critical processing parameters and compositions. Process improvements were monitored by strength testing at room and elevated temperatures, and microstructural characterization by optical, scanning electron microscopes, and scanning transmission electron microscope. Processing modifications resulted in a 20 percent strength and 72 percent Weibull slope improvement of the baseline material. Additional sintering aids screening and optimization experiments succeeded in developing a new composition (GN-10) capable of 581.2 MPa at 1399 C. A SiC whisker toughened composite using this material as a matrix achieved a room temperature toughness of 6.9 MPa m(exp .5) by the Chevron notched bar technique. Exploratory experiments were conducted on injection molding of turbocharger rotors.

A Modeling Approach to Fiber Fracture in Melt Impregnation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Feng; Zhang, Cong; Yu, Yang; Xin, Chunling; Tang, Ke; He, Yadong

2017-02-01

The effect of process variables such as roving pulling speed, melt temperature and number of pins on the fiber fracture during the processing of thermoplastic based composites was investigated in this study. The melt impregnation was used in this process of continuous glass fiber reinforced thermoplastic composites. Previous investigators have suggested a variety of models for melt impregnation, while comparatively little effort has been spent on modeling the fiber fracture caused by the viscous resin. Herein, a mathematical model was developed for impregnation process to predict the fiber fracture rate and describe the experimental results with the Weibull intensity distribution function. The optimal parameters of this process were obtained by orthogonal experiment. The results suggest that the fiber fracture is caused by viscous shear stress on fiber bundle in melt impregnation mold when pulling the fiber bundle.

A Quadriparametric Model to Describe the Diversity of Waves Applied to Hormonal Data.

PubMed

Abdullah, Saman; Bouchard, Thomas; Klich, Amna; Leiva, Rene; Pyper, Cecilia; Genolini, Christophe; Subtil, Fabien; Iwaz, Jean; Ecochard, René

2018-05-01

Even in normally cycling women, hormone level shapes may widely vary between cycles and between women. Over decades, finding ways to characterize and compare cycle hormone waves was difficult and most solutions, in particular polynomials or splines, do not correspond to physiologically meaningful parameters. We present an original concept to characterize most hormone waves with only two parameters. The modelling attempt considered pregnanediol-3-alpha-glucuronide (PDG) and luteinising hormone (LH) levels in 266 cycles (with ultrasound-identified ovulation day) in 99 normally fertile women aged 18 to 45. The study searched for a convenient wave description process and carried out an extended search for the best fitting density distribution. The highly flexible beta-binomial distribution offered the best fit of most hormone waves and required only two readily available and understandable wave parameters: location and scale. In bell-shaped waves (e.g., PDG curves), early peaks may be fitted with a low location parameter and a low scale parameter; plateau shapes are obtained with higher scale parameters. I-shaped, J-shaped, and U-shaped waves (sometimes the shapes of LH curves) may be fitted with high scale parameter and, respectively, low, high, and medium location parameter. These location and scale parameters will be later correlated with feminine physiological events. Our results demonstrate that, with unimodal waves, complex methods (e.g., functional mixed effects models using smoothing splines, second-order growth mixture models, or functional principal-component- based methods) may be avoided. The use, application, and, especially, result interpretation of four-parameter analyses might be advantageous within the context of feminine physiological events. Schattauer GmbH.

Parameterization of Shape and Compactness in Object-based Image Classification Using Quickbird-2 Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonbul, H.; Kavzoglu, T.

2016-12-01

In recent years, object based image analysis (OBIA) has spread out and become a widely accepted technique for the analysis of remotely sensed data. OBIA deals with grouping pixels into homogenous objects based on spectral, spatial and textural features of contiguous pixels in an image. The first stage of OBIA, named as image segmentation, is the most prominent part of object recognition. In this study, multiresolution segmentation, which is a region-based approach, was employed to construct image objects. In the application of multi-resolution, three parameters, namely shape, compactness and scale must be set by the analyst. Segmentation quality remarkably influences the fidelity of the thematic maps and accordingly the classification accuracy. Therefore, it is of great importance to search and set optimal values for the segmentation parameters. In the literature, main focus has been on the definition of scale parameter, assuming that the effect of shape and compactness parameters is limited in terms of achieved classification accuracy. The aim of this study is to deeply analyze the influence of shape/compactness parameters by varying their values while using the optimal scale parameter determined by the use of Estimation of Scale Parameter (ESP-2) approach. A pansharpened Qickbird-2 image covering Trabzon, Turkey was employed to investigate the objectives of the study. For this purpose, six different combinations of shape/compactness were utilized to make deductions on the behavior of shape and compactness parameters and optimal setting for all parameters as a whole. Objects were assigned to classes using nearest neighbor classifier in all segmentation observations and equal number of pixels was randomly selected to calculate accuracy metrics. The highest overall accuracy (92.3%) was achieved by setting the shape/compactness criteria to 0.3/0.3. The results of this study indicate that shape/compactness parameters can have significant effect on classification accuracy with 4% change in overall accuracy. Also, statistical significance of differences in accuracy was tested using the McNemar's test and found that the difference between poor and optimal setting of shape/compactness parameters was statistically significant, suggesting a search for optimal parameterization instead of default setting.

Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

PubMed

Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

2016-06-16

Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be implemented in a probabilistic exposure assessment or a quantitative microbial risk assessment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Treatment and technical intervention time analysis of a robotic stereotactic radiotherapy system.

PubMed

Crop, F; Lacornerie, T; Szymczak, H; Felin, A; Bailleux, C; Mirabel, X; Lartigau, E

2014-02-01

The purpose of this study is to obtain a better operational knowledge of Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) treatments with CyberKnife(r). An analysis of both In-room Times (IRT) and technical interventions of 5 years of treatments was performed, during which more than 1600 patients were treated for various indications, including liver (21%), lung (29%), intracranial (13%), head and neck (11%) and prostate (7%). Technical interventions were recorded along with the time of the failure, time to the intervention, and the complexity and duration of the repair. Analyses of Time Between Failures (TBF) and Service Disrupting TBF(disr) were performed. Treatment time data and variability per indication and following different system upgrades were evaluated. Large variations of IRTs were found between indications, but also large variations for each indication. The combination of the time reduction Tool (using Iris(r)) and Improved Stop Handling was of major impact to shortening of treatment times. The first implementation of the Iris collimator alone did not lead to significantly shorter IRTs for us except during prostate treatments. This was mostly due to the addition at the same time of larger rotational compensation for prostate treatments (58 instead of 1.58). Significant differences of duration between the first fraction and following fractions of a treatment, representing the necessity of defining imaging parameters and explanation to patients, were found for liver (12 min) and lung treatments using Xsight(r) Spine (5 min). Liver and lung treatments represent the longest IRT's and involve the largest variability's in IRT. The malfunction rate of the system followed a Weibull distribution with the shape and scale parameters of 0.8 and 39.7. Mean TBF(disr) was 68 work hours. 60 to 80% of the service disrupting interventions were resolved within 30-60 min, 5% required external intervention and 30% occurred in the morning. The presented results can be applied in the evaluation of the required machine time in order to implement robotic radiosurgery for different indications. The analytical distributions of IRTs and technical interruptions can be used for simulations.

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, J.

1998-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.

2015-02-10

In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizesmore » the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)« less

Comparison of Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox in the Survival Analysis Of Breast Cancer Patients in Rafsanjan.

PubMed

Hoseini, Mina; Bahrampour, Abbas; Mirzaee, Moghaddameh

2017-02-16

Breast cancer is the most common cancer after lung cancer and the second cause of death. In this study we compared Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox regression on the survival of breast cancer. A cohort study. The current study retrospective cohort study was conducted on 140 patients referred to Ali Ibn Abitaleb Hospital, Rafsanjan southeastern Iran from 2001 to 2015 suffering from breast cancer. We determined and analyzed the effective survival causes by different models using STATA14. According to AIC, log-normal model was more consistent than Weibull. In the multivariable Lognormal model, the effective factors like smoking, second -hand smoking, drinking herbal tea and the last breast-feeding period were included. In addition, using Cox regression factors of significant were the disease grade, size of tumor and its metastasis (p-value<0.05). As Rafsanjan is surrounded by pistachio orchards and pesticides applied by farmers, people of this city are exposed to agricultural pesticides and its harmful consequences. The effect of the pesticide on breast cancer was studied and the results showed that the effect of pesticides on breast cancer was not in agreement with the models used in this study. Based on different methods for survival analysis, researchers can decide how they can reach a better conclusion. This comparison indicates the result of semi-parametric Cox method is closer to clinical experiences evidences.

Average BER of subcarrier intensity modulated free space optical systems over the exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Zhang, Lu; Guo, Lixin; Huang, Feng; Shang, Tao; Wang, Ranran; Yang, Yintang

2014-08-25

The average bit error rate (BER) for binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation in free-space optical (FSO) links over turbulence atmosphere modeled by the exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution is investigated in detail. The effects of aperture averaging on the average BERs for BPSK modulation under weak-to-strong turbulence conditions are studied. The average BERs of EW distribution are compared with Lognormal (LN) and Gamma-Gamma (GG) distributions in weak and strong turbulence atmosphere, respectively. The outage probability is also obtained for different turbulence strengths and receiver aperture sizes. The analytical results deduced by the generalized Gauss-Laguerre quadrature rule are verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. This work is helpful for the design of receivers for FSO communication systems.

Reliability Evaluation Method with Weibull Distribution for Temporary Overvoltages of Substation Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okabe, Shigemitsu; Tsuboi, Toshihiro; Takami, Jun

The power-frequency withstand voltage tests are regulated on electric power equipment in JEC by evaluating the lifetime reliability with a Weibull distribution function. The evaluation method is still controversial in terms of consideration of a plural number of faults and some alternative methods were proposed on this subject. The present paper first discusses the physical meanings of the various kinds of evaluating methods and secondly examines their effects on the power-frequency withstand voltage tests. Further, an appropriate method is investigated for an oil-filled transformer and a gas insulated switchgear with taking notice of dielectric breakdown or partial discharge mechanism under various insulating material and structure conditions and the tentative conclusion gives that the conventional method would be most pertinent under the present conditions.

Degradation kinetics of organic dyes in water by high voltage atmospheric air and modified air cold plasma.

PubMed

Pankaj, S K; Wan, Zifan; Colonna, William; Keener, Kevin M

2017-07-01

High voltage atmospheric cold plasma (HVACP) is a novel, non-thermal technology which has shown potential for degradation of various toxic components in wastewater. In this study, HVACP was used to examine the degradation kinetics of methyl red, crystal violet and fast green FCF dyes. HVACP discharge was found to be a source of reactive nitrogen and oxygen species. High voltage application completely degraded all dyes tested in less than 5 min treatment time. Plasma from modified gas (∼65% O 2 ) further reduced the treatment time by 50% vs. plasma from dry air. First order and Weibull models were fitted to the degradation data. The Weibull model was found better in explaining the degradation kinetics of all the treated dyes.

Reliability analysis of C-130 turboprop engine components using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qattan, Nizar A.

In this study, we predict the failure rate of Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine. More than thirty years of local operational field data were used for failure rate prediction and validation. The Weibull regression model and the Artificial Neural Network model including (feed-forward back-propagation, radial basis neural network, and multilayer perceptron neural network model); will be utilized to perform this study. For this purpose, the thesis will be divided into five major parts. First part deals with Weibull regression model to predict the turbine general failure rate, and the rate of failures that require overhaul maintenance. The second part will cover the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model utilizing the feed-forward back-propagation algorithm as a learning rule. The MATLAB package will be used in order to build and design a code to simulate the given data, the inputs to the neural network are the independent variables, the output is the general failure rate of the turbine, and the failures which required overhaul maintenance. In the third part we predict the general failure rate of the turbine and the failures which require overhaul maintenance, using radial basis neural network model on MATLAB tool box. In the fourth part we compare the predictions of the feed-forward back-propagation model, with that of Weibull regression model, and radial basis neural network model. The results show that the failure rate predicted by the feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network model is closer in agreement with radial basis neural network model compared with the actual field-data, than the failure rate predicted by the Weibull model. By the end of the study, we forecast the general failure rate of the Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine, the failures which required overhaul maintenance and six categorical failures using multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) model on DTREG commercial software. The results also give an insight into the reliability of the engine turbine under actual operating conditions, which can be used by aircraft operators for assessing system and component failures and customizing the maintenance programs recommended by the manufacturer.

Robust functional statistics applied to Probability Density Function shape screening of sEMG data.

PubMed

Boudaoud, S; Rix, H; Al Harrach, M; Marin, F

2014-01-01

Recent studies pointed out possible shape modifications of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of surface electromyographical (sEMG) data according to several contexts like fatigue and muscle force increase. Following this idea, criteria have been proposed to monitor these shape modifications mainly using High Order Statistics (HOS) parameters like skewness and kurtosis. In experimental conditions, these parameters are confronted with small sample size in the estimation process. This small sample size induces errors in the estimated HOS parameters restraining real-time and precise sEMG PDF shape monitoring. Recently, a functional formalism, the Core Shape Model (CSM), has been used to analyse shape modifications of PDF curves. In this work, taking inspiration from CSM method, robust functional statistics are proposed to emulate both skewness and kurtosis behaviors. These functional statistics combine both kernel density estimation and PDF shape distances to evaluate shape modifications even in presence of small sample size. Then, the proposed statistics are tested, using Monte Carlo simulations, on both normal and Log-normal PDFs that mimic observed sEMG PDF shape behavior during muscle contraction. According to the obtained results, the functional statistics seem to be more robust than HOS parameters to small sample size effect and more accurate in sEMG PDF shape screening applications.

Closed-form Capacity Expressions for the α-μ Fading Channel with SC Diversity under Different Adaptive Transmission Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamed, Refaat; Ismail, Mahmoud H.; Newagy, Fatma; Mourad, Heba M.

2013-03-01

Stemming from the fact that the α-μ fading distribution is one of the very general fading models used in the literature to describe the small scale fading phenomenon, in this paper, closed-form expressions for the Shannon capacity of the α-μ fading channel operating under four main adaptive transmission strategies are derived assuming integer values for μ. These expressions are derived for the case of no diversity as well as for selection combining diversity with independent and identically distributed branches. The obtained expressions reduce to those previously derived in the literature for the Weibull as well as the Rayleigh fading cases, which are both special cases of the α-μ channel. Numerical results are presented for the capacity under the four adaptive transmission strategies and the effect of the fading parameter as well as the number of diversity branches is studied.

Accelerated Thermal Cycling and Failure Mechanisms for BGA and CSP Assemblies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghaffarian, Reza

2000-01-01

This paper reviews the accelerated thermal cycling test methods that are currently used by industry to characterize the interconnect reliability of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) ball grid array (BGA) and chip scale package (CSP) assemblies. Acceleration induced failure mechanisms varied from conventional surface mount (SM) failures for CSPs. Examples of unrealistic life projections for other CSPs are also presented. The cumulative cycles to failure for ceramic BGA assemblies performed under different conditions, including plots of their two Weibull parameters, are presented. The results are for cycles in the range of -30 C to 100 C, -55 C to 100 C, and -55 C to 125 C. Failure mechanisms as well as cycles to failure for thermal shock and thermal cycling conditions in the range of -55 C to 125 C were compared. Projection to other temperature cycling ranges using a modified Coffin-Manson relationship is also presented.

Quantitative three-dimensional ice roughness from scanning electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butterfield, Nicholas; Rowe, Penny M.; Stewart, Emily; Roesel, David; Neshyba, Steven

2017-03-01

We present a method for inferring surface morphology of ice from scanning electron microscope images. We first develop a novel functional form for the backscattered electron intensity as a function of ice facet orientation; this form is parameterized using smooth ice facets of known orientation. Three-dimensional representations of rough surfaces are retrieved at approximately micrometer resolution using Gauss-Newton inversion within a Bayesian framework. Statistical analysis of the resulting data sets permits characterization of ice surface roughness with a much higher statistical confidence than previously possible. A survey of results in the range -39°C to -29°C shows that characteristics of the roughness (e.g., Weibull parameters) are sensitive not only to the degree of roughening but also to the symmetry of the roughening. These results suggest that roughening characteristics obtained by remote sensing and in situ measurements of atmospheric ice clouds can potentially provide more facet-specific information than has previously been appreciated.

Accelerated test system strength models based on Birnbaum-Saunders distribution: a complete Bayesian analysis and comparison.

PubMed

Upadhyay, S K; Mukherjee, Bhaswati; Gupta, Ashutosh

2009-09-01

Several models for studies related to tensile strength of materials are proposed in the literature where the size or length component has been taken to be an important factor for studying the specimens' failure behaviour. An important model, developed on the basis of cumulative damage approach, is the three-parameter extension of the Birnbaum-Saunders fatigue model that incorporates size of the specimen as an additional variable. This model is a strong competitor of the commonly used Weibull model and stands better than the traditional models, which do not incorporate the size effect. The paper considers two such cumulative damage models, checks their compatibility with a real dataset, compares them with some of the recent toolkits, and finally recommends a model, which appears an appropriate one. Throughout the study is Bayesian based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.

Motion of kinesin in a viscoelastic medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knoops, Gert; Vanderzande, Carlo

2018-05-01

Kinesin is a molecular motor that transports cargo along microtubules. The results of many in vitro experiments on kinesin-1 are described by kinetic models in which one transition corresponds to the forward motion and subsequent binding of the tethered motor head. We argue that in a viscoelastic medium like the cytosol of a cell this step is not Markov and has to be described by a nonexponential waiting time distribution. We introduce a semi-Markov kinetic model for kinesin that takes this effect into account. We calculate, for arbitrary waiting time distributions, the moment generating function of the number of steps made, and determine from this the average velocity and the diffusion constant of the motor. We illustrate our results for the case of a waiting time distribution that is Weibull. We find that for realistic parameter values, viscoelasticity decreases the velocity and the diffusion constant, but increases the randomness (or Fano factor).

Recovering Parameters of Johnson's SB Distribution

Treesearch

Bernard R. Parresol

2003-01-01

A new parameter recovery model for Johnson's SB distribution is developed. This latest alternative approach permits recovery of the range and both shape parameters. Previous models recovered only the two shape parameters. Also, a simple procedure for estimating the distribution minimum from sample values is presented. The new methodology...

[Correlation between parameters on the shape of body and dissatisfaction against it from parents among children and adolescents].

PubMed

Fu, Lianguo; Wang, Haijun; Sun, Lili; Yang, Yide; Li, Xiaohui; Wang, Shuo; Meng, Xiangkun; Wang, Zhenghe; Ma, Jun

2015-04-01

To analyze the correlation between children and adolescents' body shape parameters and parent's dissatisfaction on it. Stratified cluster sampling method was used to select students and their parents, and height, weight, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), skinfold thichness of the students were measured. Body image from parents was studied through the 'Ma body figural shape'. Correlation between body shape parameters and dissatisfaction towards them from the parents was analyzed under both simple- and multiple-level methods. The overall prevalence of dissatisfaction on body-shapes from parents was 69.0%, including 28.6% of the parents expecting children to be fat (PEBF) while, 40.4% of the parents expecting their children to be thin (PEBT). In males, parameters as height, weight, WC, HC, skin fold thickness, BMI in PEBT were 1.9 cm, 11.9 kg, 13.2 cm, 8.8 cm, 32.3 mm, 4.7 kg/m² respectively, all higher than the satisfaction from the parents (PBIS) (all P < 0.05), and these parameters were 2.3 cm, 7.1 kg, 7.2 cm, 5.8 cm, 14.1 mm, 2.3 kg/m² higher in PBIS than that of PEBF, respectively (all P < 0.05). In females, parameters as weight, WC, HC, skinfold thickness, BMI in PEBT appeared to be 8.6 kg, 9.1 cm, 6.6 cm, 21.9 mm, 3.5 kg/m² higher than that of PBIS (all P < 0.01), and were 5.5 kg, 5.9 cm, 5.4 cm, 10.4 mm, 1.8 kg/m² higher in PBIS than that of PEBF, respectively, plus the difference of height was 3.6 cm more (P < 0.01). Differences of body shape on parameters between PEBT and PBIS were larger in primary school students than in middle school students. However, the differences of body shape parameters between PBIS and PEBF appeared higher in middle school students than in primary school male students, but were higher in female students in primary than in middle school students. The prevalence of body dissatisfaction related to children and adolscents' body shape parameters from parents was high. Parents in the PEBT group seemed to have paid more attention to children's body shape parameters at low age. However, parents in PEBF group might have paid more attention to children's body shape parameters at high age in males or at low age in females.

Statistical shape modelling to aid surgical planning: associations between surgical parameters and head shapes following spring-assisted cranioplasty.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Bruse, Jan L; Borghi, Alessandro; Vercruysse, Herman; Ong, Juling; James, Greg; Pennec, Xavier; Dunaway, David J; Jeelani, N U Owase; Schievano, Silvia

2017-10-01

Spring-assisted cranioplasty is performed to correct the long and narrow head shape of children with sagittal synostosis. Such corrective surgery involves osteotomies and the placement of spring-like distractors, which gradually expand to widen the skull until removal about 4 months later. Due to its dynamic nature, associations between surgical parameters and post-operative 3D head shape features are difficult to comprehend. The current study aimed at applying population-based statistical shape modelling to gain insight into how the choice of surgical parameters such as craniotomy size and spring positioning affects post-surgical head shape. Twenty consecutive patients with sagittal synostosis who underwent spring-assisted cranioplasty at Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children (London, UK) were prospectively recruited. Using a nonparametric statistical modelling technique based on mathematical currents, a 3D head shape template was computed from surface head scans of sagittal patients after spring removal. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was employed to quantify and visualise trends of localised head shape changes associated with the surgical parameters recorded during spring insertion: anterior-posterior and lateral craniotomy dimensions, anterior spring position and distance between anterior and posterior springs. Bivariate correlations between surgical parameters and corresponding PLS shape vectors demonstrated that anterior-posterior (Pearson's [Formula: see text]) and lateral craniotomy dimensions (Spearman's [Formula: see text]), as well as the position of the anterior spring ([Formula: see text]) and the distance between both springs ([Formula: see text]) on average had significant effects on head shapes at the time of spring removal. Such effects were visualised on 3D models. Population-based analysis of 3D post-operative medical images via computational statistical modelling tools allowed for detection of novel associations between surgical parameters and head shape features achieved following spring-assisted cranioplasty. The techniques described here could be extended to other cranio-maxillofacial procedures in order to assess post-operative outcomes and ultimately facilitate surgical decision making.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Reaction-Formed Silicon Carbide (RFSC) Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, M.; Behrendt, D. R.

1994-01-01

The microstructure and mechanical properties of reaction-formed silicon carbide (RFSC) ceramics fabricated by silicon infiltration of porous carbon preforms are discussed. The morphological characterization of the carbon preforms indicates a very narrow pore size distribution. Measurements of the preform density by physical methods and by mercury porosimetry agree very well and indicate that virtually all of the porosity in the preforms is open to infiltrating liquids. The average room temperature flexural strength of the RFSC material with approximately 8 at.% free silicon is 369 +/- 28 MPa (53.5 +/- 4 ksi). The Weibull strength distribution data give a characteristic strength value of 381 MPa (55 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 14.3. The residual silicon content is lower and the strengths are superior to those of most commercially available reaction-bonded silicon carbide materials.

Implication of observed cloud variability for parameterizations of microphysical and radiative transfer processes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, D.; Liu, Y.

2014-12-01

The effects of subgrid cloud variability on grid-average microphysical rates and radiative fluxes are examined by use of long-term retrieval products at the Tropical West Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. Four commonly used distribution functions, the truncated Gaussian, Gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions, are constrained to have the same mean and standard deviation as observed cloud liquid water content. The PDFs are then used to upscale relevant physical processes to obtain grid-average process rates. It is found that the truncated Gaussian representation results in up to 30% mean bias in autoconversion rate whereas the mean bias for the lognormal representation is about 10%. The Gamma and Weibull distribution function performs the best for the grid-average autoconversion rate with the mean relative bias less than 5%. For radiative fluxes, the lognormal and truncated Gaussian representations perform better than the Gamma and Weibull representations. The results show that the optimal choice of subgrid cloud distribution function depends on the nonlinearity of the process of interest and thus there is no single distribution function that works best for all parameterizations. Examination of the scale (window size) dependence of the mean bias indicates that the bias in grid-average process rates monotonically increases with increasing window sizes, suggesting the increasing importance of subgrid variability with increasing grid sizes.

Weibull thermodynamics: Subexponential decay in the energy spectrum of cosmic-ray nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaschitz, Roman

2017-10-01

The spectral number density of cosmic-ray nuclei is shown to be a multiply broken power law with subexponential spectral cutoff. To this end, a spectral fit is performed to data sets covering the 1GeV - 1011GeV interval of the all-particle cosmic-ray spectrum. The flux points of the ultra-high energy spectral tail measured with the Telescope Array indicate a Weibull cutoff exp(-(E /(kB T)) σ) and permit a precise determination of the cutoff temperature kB T =(2 . 5 ± 0 . 1) × 1010 GeV and the spectral index σ = 0 . 66 ± 0 . 02. Based on the spectral number density inferred from the least-squares fit, the thermodynamics of this stationary non-equilibrium system, a multi-component mixture of relativistic nuclei, is developed. The derivative of entropy with respect to internal energy defines the effective temperature of the nuclei, S,U = 1 /Teff ,kBTeff ≈ 16 . 1 GeV, and the functional dependence between the cutoff temperature in the Weibull exponential and the effective gas temperature is determined. The equipartition ratio is found to be U /(NkBTeff) ≈ 0 . 30. The isochoric and isobaric heat capacities of the nuclear gas are calculated, as well as the isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities and the isobaric expansion coefficient, and it is shown that this non-equilibrated relativistic gas mixture satisfies the thermodynamic inequalities 0

A micromechanical interpretation of the temperature dependence of Beremin model parameters for french RPV steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieu, Jean-Philippe; Inal, Karim; Berveiller, Sophie; Diard, Olivier

2010-11-01

Local approach to brittle fracture for low-alloyed steels is discussed in this paper. A bibliographical introduction intends to highlight general trends and consensual points of the topic and evokes debatable aspects. French RPV steel 16MND5 (equ. ASTM A508 Cl.3), is then used as a model material to study the influence of temperature on brittle fracture. A micromechanical modelling of brittle fracture at the elementary volume scale already used in previous work is then recalled. It involves a multiscale modelling of microstructural plasticity which has been tuned on experimental inter-phase and inter-granular stresses heterogeneities measurements. Fracture probability of the elementary volume can then be computed using a randomly attributed defect size distribution based on realistic carbides repartition. This defect distribution is then deterministically correlated to stress heterogeneities simulated within the microstructure using a weakest-link hypothesis on the elementary volume, which results in a deterministic stress to fracture. Repeating the process allows to compute Weibull parameters on the elementary volume. This tool is then used to investigate the physical mechanisms that could explain the already experimentally observed temperature dependence of Beremin's parameter for 16MND5 steel. It is showed that, assuming that the hypothesis made in this work about cleavage micro-mechanisms are correct, effective equivalent surface energy (i.e. surface energy plus plastically dissipated energy when blunting the crack tip) for propagating a crack has to be temperature dependent to explain Beremin's parameters temperature evolution.

On the stability treatment in WAsP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giebel, G.; Gryning, S.-E.

2003-04-01

An assessment of the treatment of atmospheric stability in the standard package for wind resource estimation, WAsP (from Risø National Laboratory), is presented. Emphasis is on the vertical wind profiles in WAsP and the treatment of stability therein, under special consideration of the nightly situation. The study starts with an introduction to WAsP and the way it treats the vertical extrapolation, under special consideration of the stability. The two parameters available for changing the stability treatment in WAsP are identified as RMS heat flux and offset heat flux. Four years worth of data from the meteorological mast at Risø, plus data from Egypt and Bermuda, is used for the identification of the parameter settings for stable conditions. To this aim, the measured heat fluxes from the mast were used to extract three data sets with successively higher stability in four different heights. These data sets were then run through the Observed Wind Climate Wizard (part of the WAsP package), resulting in Weibull fits to the data. Using these observed wind climates, a prediction of the highest level wind climate using the lowest level wind climate under all different stable conditions is undertaken and compared with the measured data set. To expand on this study, a systematic variation of the two heat flux parameters in WAsP is done, finding the parameters yielding the lowest overall errors for the predictions. Parts of this study were financed by the Landesumweltamt Brandenburg.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Properties and infiltration arts of machinable infiltration ceramic(MIC)].

PubMed

Yang, H; Xian, S; Liao, Y; Xue, Y; Chai, F

2000-06-01

The purpose of this study is to explore the infiltration arts of MIC and study the effects of different packing density of Al2O3 matrix on the properties of MIC. alpha-Al2O3 specimens were fabricated by pouring alpha-Al2O3 slip with different powder/liquid ratios(P/L = 3.5, 7.5, 10.5) into a mold, and subsequently pre-fired at 1160 degrees C for 6 hours to form Al2O3 matrix. The packing density of the matrices were measured. Infiltration concepts were introduced into this study by infiltrating molten mica micro-crystalline glass into the porous Al2O3 matrix at 1160 degrees C for 6 hours to form a continuous interpenetrating composite. The composite then underwent micro-crystallization by nucleating at 550 degrees C for 1 hour and crystallizing at 900 degrees C for 1 hour, which resulted in the MIC. Mechanical properties including three point flexural strength, elastic modulus, Vicker's hardness, indentation fracture toughness and Weibull's modulus of flexural strength were determined. Parameters of machinability(H/KIC)2 of MIC were calculated. XRD and SEM were employed to study its microstructure. The resulted matrices reached packing densities of 63%, 76%, 78% with P/L of 3.5, 7.5 and 10.5. The MIC attained high strength and good machinability after infiltration. Three-point flexural strength and indentation fracture toughness were 342, 431, 374 MPa and 4.05, 4.14, 5.02 MPa m1/2 for MIC with packing density of 63%, 76%, 78% separately. And parameters of machinability were 5.41, 6.84 and 7.39 respectively. Packing density of Al2O3 matrix significantly influenced the mechanical properties. Maximum properties were obtained with a matrix packing density of 75%(P/L = 7.5), with a Weibull's modulus of flexural strength of 6.8. Machinability decreased with the increase of P/L ratio. Micro-crystallizing treatment resulted in the formation of evenly distributed mica crystalline in the composite, which contributed to the high strength of this composite material. MIC is a new infiltrated ceramic with favorable strength and machinability which can satisfy the prosthodontic requirements as all ceramic crown and bridge materials, it also shows promising outlook for future developments and clinical usage.

Renewal models and coseismic stress transfer in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Console, Rodolfo; Falcone, Giuseppe; Karakostas, Vassilis; Murru, Maura; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Rhoades, David

2013-07-01

model interevent times and Coulomb static stress transfer on the rupture segments along the Corinth Gulf extension zone, a region with a wealth of observations on strong-earthquake recurrence behavior. From the available information on past seismic activity, we have identified eight segments without significant overlapping that are aligned along the southern boundary of the Corinth rift. We aim to test if strong earthquakes on these segments are characterized by some kind of time-predictable behavior, rather than by complete randomness. The rationale for time-predictable behavior is based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, the necessary ingredients of which are a known faulting geometry and slip rate. The tectonic loading rate is characterized by slip of 6 mm/yr on the westernmost fault segment, diminishing to 4 mm/yr on the easternmost segment, based on the most reliable geodetic data. In this study, we employ statistical and physical modeling to account for stress transfer among these fault segments. The statistical modeling is based on the definition of a probability density distribution of the interevent times for each segment. Both the Brownian Passage-Time (BPT) and Weibull distributions are tested. The time-dependent hazard rate thus obtained is then modified by the inclusion of a permanent physical effect due to the Coulomb static stress change caused by failure of neighboring faults since the latest characteristic earthquake on the fault of interest. The validity of the renewal model is assessed retrospectively, using the data of the last 300 years, by comparison with a plain time-independent Poisson model, by means of statistical tools including the Relative Operating Characteristic diagram, the R-score, the probability gain and the log-likelihood ratio. We treat the uncertainties in the parameters of each examined fault source, such as linear dimensions, depth of the fault center, focal mechanism, recurrence time, coseismic slip, and aperiodicity of the statistical distribution, by a Monte Carlo technique. The Monte Carlo samples for all these parameters are drawn from a uniform distribution within their uncertainty limits. We find that the BPT and the Weibull renewal models yield comparable results, and both of them perform significantly better than the Poisson hypothesis. No clear performance enhancement is achieved by the introduction of the Coulomb static stress change into the renewal model.

In silico study on the effects of matrix structure in controlled drug release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villalobos, Rafael; Cordero, Salomón; Maria Vidales, Ana; Domínguez, Armando

2006-07-01

Purpose: To study the effects of drug concentration and spatial distribution of the medicament, in porous solid dosage forms, on the kinetics and total yield of drug release. Methods: Cubic networks are used as models of drug release systems. They were constructed by means of the dual site-bond model framework, which allows a substrate to have adequate geometrical and topological distribution of its pore elements. Drug particles can move inside the networks by following a random walk model with excluded volume interactions between the particles. The drug release time evolution for different drug concentration and different initial drug spatial distribution has been monitored. Results: The numerical results show that in all the studied cases, drug release presents an anomalous behavior, and the consequences of the matrix structural properties, i.e., drug spatial distribution and drug concentration, on the drug release profile have been quantified. Conclusions: The Weibull function provides a simple connection between the model parameters and the microstructure of the drug release device. A critical modeling of drug release from matrix-type delivery systems is important in order to understand the transport mechanisms that are implicated, and to predict the effect of the device design parameters on the release rate.

How oral environment simulation affects ceramic failure behavior.

PubMed

Lodi, Ediléia; Weber, Kátia R; Benetti, Paula; Corazza, Pedro H; Della Bona, Álvaro; Borba, Márcia

2018-05-01

Investigating the mechanical behavior of ceramics in a clinically simulated scenario contributes to the development of new and tougher materials, improving the clinical performance of restorations. The optimal in vitro environment for testing is unclear. The purpose of this in vitro study was to investigate the failure behavior of a leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic under compression loading and fatigue in different simulated oral environment conditions. Fifty-three plate-shaped ceramic specimens were produced from computer-aided design and computer-aided manufactured (CAD-CAM) blocks and adhesively cemented onto a dentin analog substrate. For the monotonic test (n=23), a gradual compressive load (0.5 mm/min) was applied to the center of the specimens, immersed in 37ºC water, using a universal testing machine. The initial crack was detected with an acoustic system. The fatigue test was performed in a mechanical cycling machine (37ºC water, 2 Hz) using the boundary technique (n=30). Two lifetimes were evaluated (1×10 6 and 2×10 6 cycles). Failure analysis was performed using transillumination. Weibull distribution was used to evaluate compressive load data. A cumulative damage model with an inverse power law (IPL) lifetime-stress relationship was used to fit the fatigue data. A characteristic failure load of 1615 N and a Weibull modulus of 5 were obtained with the monotonic test. The estimated probability of failure (P f ) for 1×10 6 cycles at 100 N was 31%, at 150 N it was 55%, and at 200 N it was 75%. For 2×10 6 cycles, the P f increased approximately 20% in comparison with the values predicted for 1×10 6 cycles, which was not significant. The most frequent failure mode was a radial crack from the intaglio surface. For fatigue, combined failure modes were also found (radial crack combined with cone crack or chipping). Fatigue affects the fracture load and failure mode of leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic. Copyright © 2017 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Layered Manufacturing of Dental Ceramics: Fracture Mechanics, Microstructure, and Elemental Composition of Lithography-Sintered Ceramic.

PubMed

Uçar, Yurdanur; Aysan Meriç, İpek; Ekren, Orhun

2018-02-11

To compare the fracture mechanics, microstructure, and elemental composition of lithography-based ceramic manufacturing with pressing and CAD/CAM. Disc-shaped specimens (16 mm diameter, 1.2 mm thick) were used for mechanical testing (n = 10/group). Biaxial flexural strength of three groups (In-Ceram alumina [ICA], lithography-based alumina, ZirkonZahn) were determined using the "piston on 3-ball" technique as suggested in test Standard ISO-6872. Vickers hardness test was performed. Fracture toughness was calculated using fractography. Results were statistically analyzed using Kruskal-Wallis test followed by Dunnett T3 (α = 0.05). Weibull analysis was conducted. Polished and fracture surface characterization was made using scanning electron microscope (SEM). Energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) was used for elemental analysis. Biaxial flexural strength of ICA, LCM alumina (LCMA), and ZirkonZahn were 147 ± 43 MPa, 490 ± 44 MPa, and 709 ± 94 MPa, respectively, and were statistically different (P ≤ 0.05). The Vickers hardness number of ICA was 850 ± 41, whereas hardness values for LCMA and ZirkonZahn were 1581 ± 144 and 1249 ± 57, respectively, and were statistically different (P ≤ 0.05). A statistically significant difference was found between fracture toughness of ICA (2 ± 0.4 MPa⋅m 1/2 ), LCMA (6.5 ± 1.5 MPa⋅m 1/2 ), and ZirkonZahn (7.7 ± 1 MPa⋅m 1/2 ) (P ≤ 0.05). Weibull modulus was highest for LCMA (m = 11.43) followed by ZirkonZahn (m = 8.16) and ICA (m = 5.21). Unlike LCMA and ZirkonZahn groups, a homogeneous microstructure was not observed for ICA. EDS results supported the SEM images. Within the limitations of this in vitro study, it can be concluded that LCM seems to be a promising technique for final ceramic object manufacturing in dental applications. Both the manufacturing method and the material used should be improved. © 2018 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Dispersal of Volcanic Ash on Mars: Ash Grain Shape Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langdalen, Z.; Fagents, S. A.; Fitch, E. P.

2017-12-01

Many ash dispersal models use spheres as ash-grain analogs in drag calculations. These simplifications introduce inaccuracies in the treatment of drag coefficients, leading to inaccurate settling velocities and dispersal predictions. Therefore, we are investigating the use of a range of shape parameters, calculated using grain dimensions, to derive a better representation of grain shape and effective grain cross-sectional area. Specifically, our goal is to apply our results to the modeling of ash deposition to investigate the proposed volcanic origin of certain fine-grained deposits on Mars. Therefore, we are documenting the dimensions and shapes of ash grains from terrestrial subplinian to plinian deposits, in eight size divisions from 2 mm to 16 μm, employing a high resolution optical microscope. The optical image capture protocol provides an accurate ash grain outline by taking multiple images at different focus heights prior to combining them into a composite image. Image composite mosaics are then processed through ImageJ, a robust scientific measurement software package, to calculate a range of dimensionless shape parameters. Since ash grains rotate as they fall, drag forces act on a changing cross-sectional area. Therefore, we capture images and calculate shape parameters of each grain positioned in three orthogonal orientations. We find that the difference between maximum and minimum aspect ratios of the three orientations of a given grain best quantifies the degree of elongation of that grain. However, the average aspect ratio calculated for each grain provides a good representation of relative differences among grains. We also find that convexity provides the best representation of surface irregularity. For both shape parameters, natural ash grains display notably different shape parameter values than sphere analogs. Therefore, Mars ash dispersal modeling that incorporates shape parameters will provide more realistic predictions of deposit extents because volcanic ash-grain morphologies differ substantially from simplified geometric shapes.

Estimation of ZnSe Slow-Crack-Growth Properties for Design of the Flow Enclosure Accommodating Novel Investigations in Combustion of Solids (FEANICS) Windows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.

2005-01-01

This report reviews some of the literature on the fracture strength, fracture toughness, and crack growth properties of chemical-vapor-deposited ZnSe. The literature was reviewed to determine if the existing data on ZnSe is adequate to design windows for the Flow Enclosure Accommodating Novel Investigations in Combustion of Solids (FEANICS) project. Unfortunately, most of the published reports do not give all of the necessary design parameters despite having measured the data to do so. Further, the original data is not available. The data tabulated herein was determined by digitizing plots in original reprints of the publications. Based on the published data, an estimate of the slow-crack-growth parameters for small cracks in 100 percent humidity was made. For 100 percent humidity, the slow-crack-growth parameters n and A for small crack (or single crystal) failure were estimated. Weibull moduli estimated from bending of beams and circular plates ranged from 4 to 9, while fracture strengths ranged from 29 MPa in water to 72 MPa in dry nitrogen. Fracture toughness measurements yielded ranges, with the lower values representing failure from small flaws within grains and the larger values representing macroscopic cracks. Much of the data analyzed exhibited significant scatter, and the standard deviations were very large.

Arbitrary temporal shape pulsed fiber laser based on SPGD algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Min; Su, Rongtao; Zhang, Pengfei; Zhou, Pu

2018-06-01

A novel adaptive pulse shaping method for a pulsed master oscillator power amplifier fiber laser to deliver an arbitrary pulse shape is demonstrated. Numerical simulation has been performed to validate the feasibility of the scheme and provide meaningful guidance for the design of the algorithm control parameters. In the proof-of-concept experiment, information on the temporal property of the laser is exchanged and evaluated through a local area network, and the laser adjusted the parameters of the seed laser according to the monitored output of the system automatically. Various pulse shapes, including a rectangular shape, ‘M’ shape, and elliptical shape are achieved through experimental iterations.

Assessment of the accuracy of plasma shape reconstruction by the Cauchy condition surface method in JT-60SA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyata, Y.; Suzuki, T.; Takechi, M.; Urano, H.; Ide, S.

2015-07-01

For the purpose of stable plasma equilibrium control and detailed analysis, it is essential to reconstruct an accurate plasma boundary on the poloidal cross section in tokamak devices. The Cauchy condition surface (CCS) method is a numerical approach for calculating the spatial distribution of the magnetic flux outside a hypothetical surface and reconstructing the plasma boundary from the magnetic measurements located outside the plasma. The accuracy of the plasma shape reconstruction has been assessed by comparing the CCS method and an equilibrium calculation in JT-60SA with a high elongation and triangularity of plasma shape. The CCS, on which both Dirichlet and Neumann conditions are unknown, is defined as a hypothetical surface located inside the real plasma region. The accuracy of the plasma shape reconstruction is sensitive to the CCS free parameters such as the number of unknown parameters and the shape in JT-60SA. It is found that the optimum number of unknown parameters and the size of the CCS that minimizes errors in the reconstructed plasma shape are in proportion to the plasma size. Furthermore, it is shown that the accuracy of the plasma shape reconstruction is greatly improved using the optimum number of unknown parameters and shape of the CCS, and the reachable reconstruction errors in plasma shape and locations of strike points are within the target ranges in JT-60SA.

Predicting near-ground vortex lifetimes using Weibull density functions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-08

To mitigate safety hazards posed by near-ground vortex lateral transport, under : instrument flight rules (IFR), parallel runway operations must adopt aircraft spacing : standards that often reduce capacity. Once the phenomenon of lateral transport i...

Multi-Response Optimization of WEDM Process Parameters Using Taguchi Based Desirability Function Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majumder, Himadri; Maity, Kalipada

2018-03-01

Shape memory alloy has a unique capability to return to its original shape after physical deformation by applying heat or thermo-mechanical or magnetic load. In this experimental investigation, desirability function analysis (DFA), a multi-attribute decision making was utilized to find out the optimum input parameter setting during wire electrical discharge machining (WEDM) of Ni-Ti shape memory alloy. Four critical machining parameters, namely pulse on time (TON), pulse off time (TOFF), wire feed (WF) and wire tension (WT) were taken as machining inputs for the experiments to optimize three interconnected responses like cutting speed, kerf width, and surface roughness. Input parameter combination TON = 120 μs., TOFF = 55 μs., WF = 3 m/min. and WT = 8 kg-F were found to produce the optimum results. The optimum process parameters for each desired response were also attained using Taguchi’s signal-to-noise ratio. Confirmation test has been done to validate the optimum machining parameter combination which affirmed DFA was a competent approach to select optimum input parameters for the ideal response quality for WEDM of Ni-Ti shape memory alloy.

Mechanical properties of silicate glasses exposed to a low-Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiedlocher, David E.; Tucker, Dennis S.; Nichols, Ron; Kinser, Donald L.

1992-01-01

The effects of a 5.8 year exposure to low earth orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of commercial optical fused silica, low iron soda-lime-silica, Pyrex 7740, Vycor 7913, BK-7, and the glass ceramic Zerodur were examined. Mechanical testing employed the ASTM-F-394 piston on 3-ball method in a liquid nitrogen environment. Samples were exposed on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in two locations. Impacts were observed on all specimens except Vycor. Weibull analysis as well as a standard statistical evaluation were conducted. The Weibull analysis revealed no differences between control samples and the two exposed samples. We thus concluded that radiation components of the Earth orbital environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. The upper bound of strength degradation for meteorite impacted samples based upon statistical analysis and observation was 50 percent.

The effects of surface finish and grain size on the strength of sintered silicon carbide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

You, Y. H.; Kim, Y. W.; Lee, J. G.; Kim, C. H.

1985-01-01

The effects of surface treatment and microstructure, especially abnormal grain growth, on the strength of sintered SiC were studied. The surfaces of sintered SiC were treated with 400, 800 and 1200 grit diamond wheels. Grain growth was induced by increasing the sintering times at 2050 C. The beta to alpha transformation occurred during the sintering of beta-phase starting materials and was often accompanied by abnormal grain growth. The overall strength distributions were established using Weibull statistics. The strength of the sintered SiC is limited by extrinsic surface flaws in normal-sintered specimens. The finer the surface finish and grain size, the higher the strength. But the strength of abnormal sintering specimens is limited by the abnormally grown large tabular grains. The Weibull modulus increases with decreasing grain size and decreasing grit size for grinding.

Life and reliability models for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Knorr, R. J.; Coy, J. J.

1982-01-01

Computer models of life and reliability are presented for planetary gear trains with a fixed ring gear, input applied to the sun gear, and output taken from the planet arm. For this transmission the input and output shafts are co-axial and the input and output torques are assumed to be coaxial with these shafts. Thrust and side loading are neglected. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distributions of the individual reliabilities of the in transmission components. The system model is also a Weibull distribution. The load versus life model for the system is a power relationship as the models for the individual components. The load-life exponent and basic dynamic capacity are developed as functions of the components capacities. The models are used to compare three and four planet, 150 kW (200 hp), 5:1 reduction transmissions with 1500 rpm input speed to illustrate their use.

Pectin methyl esterase and natural microflora of fresh mixed orange and carrot juice treated with pulsed electric fields.

PubMed

Rodrigo, D; Barbosa-Cánovas, G V; Martínez, A; Rodrigo, M

2003-12-01

The effects of pulsed electric fields (PEFs) on pectin methyl esterase (PME), molds and yeast, and total flora in fresh (nonpasteurized) mixed orange and carrot juice were studied. The PEF effect was more extensive when juices with high levels of initial PME activity were subjected to treatment and when PEF treatment (at 25 kV/cm for 340 micros) was combined with a moderate temperature (63 degrees C), with the maximum level of PME inactivation being 81.4%. These conditions produced 3.7 decimal reductions in molds and yeast and 2.4 decimal reductions in total flora. Experimental inactivation data for PME, molds and yeast, and total flora were fitted to Bigelow, Hülsheger, and Weibull inactivation models by nonlinear regression. The best fit (lowest mean square error) was obtained with the Weibull model.

Pricing of premiums for equity-linked life insurance based on joint mortality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Parmikanti, K.; Irianingsih, I.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

Life insurance equity - linked is a financial product that not only offers protection, but also investment. The calculation of equity-linked life insurance premiums generally uses mortality tables. Because of advances in medical technology and reduced birth rates, it appears that the use of mortality tables is less relevant in the calculation of premiums. To overcome this problem, we use a combination mortality model which in this study is determined based on Indonesian Mortality table 2011 to determine the chances of death and survival. In this research, we use the Combined Mortality Model of the Weibull, Inverse-Weibull, and Gompertz Mortality Model. After determining the Combined Mortality Model, simulators calculate the value of the claim to be given and the premium price numerically. By calculating equity-linked life insurance premiums well, it is expected that no party will be disadvantaged due to the inaccuracy of the calculation result

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

Testing homogeneity in Weibull-regression models.

PubMed

Bolfarine, Heleno; Valença, Dione M

2005-10-01

In survival studies with families or geographical units it may be of interest testing whether such groups are homogeneous for given explanatory variables. In this paper we consider score type tests for group homogeneity based on a mixing model in which the group effect is modelled as a random variable. As opposed to hazard-based frailty models, this model presents survival times that conditioned on the random effect, has an accelerated failure time representation. The test statistics requires only estimation of the conventional regression model without the random effect and does not require specifying the distribution of the random effect. The tests are derived for a Weibull regression model and in the uncensored situation, a closed form is obtained for the test statistic. A simulation study is used for comparing the power of the tests. The proposed tests are applied to real data sets with censored data.

Size Effect on Specific Energy Distribution in Particle Comminution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yongfu; Wang, Yidong

A theoretical study is made to derive an energy distribution equation for the size reduction process from the fractal model for the particle comminution. Fractal model is employed as a valid measure of the self-similar size distribution of comminution daughter products. The tensile strength of particles varies with particle size in the manner of a power function law. The energy consumption for comminuting single particle is found to be proportional to the 5(D-3)/3rd order of the particle size, D being the fractal dimension of particle comminution daughter. The Weibull statistics is applied to describe the relationship between the breakage probability and specific energy of particle comminution. A simple equation is derived for the breakage probability of particles in view of the dependence of fracture energy on particle size. The calculated exponents and Weibull coefficients are generally in conformity with published data for fracture of particles.

Performance analysis for mixed FSO/RF Nakagami-m and Exponentiated Weibull dual-hop airborne systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Zhao; Shang-hong, Zhao; Wei-hu, Zhao; Ke-fan, Chen

2017-06-01

In this paper, the performances of mixed free-space optical (FSO)/radio frequency (RF) systems are presented based on the decode-and-forward relaying. The Exponentiated Weibull fading channel with pointing error effect is adopted for the atmospheric fluctuation of FSO channel and the RF link undergoes the Nakagami-m fading. We derived the analytical expression for cumulative distribution function (CDF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The novel mathematical presentations of outage probability and average bit-error-rate (BER) are developed based on the Meijer's G function. The analytical results show an accurately match to the Monte-Carlo simulation results. The outage and BER performance for the mixed system by decode-and-forward relay are investigated considering atmospheric turbulence and pointing error condition. The effect of aperture averaging is evaluated in all atmospheric turbulence conditions as well.

Quality evaluation and in vitro interaction studies between levofloxacin 250mg and diclofenac sodium 50mg tablets.

PubMed

Fayyaz, Muhammad; Yousuf, Rabia Ismail; Shoaib, Muhammad Harris; Ali, Tariq; Nasiri, Iqbal; Ashraf, Nida

2015-01-01

Fluoroquinolones are broad-spectrum antibiotics, work against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria and are a clinically proven option for many resistant infections. Among fluoroquinolones Levofloxacin works best against acute sinusitis, inflammation of the lower airways, acute exacerbation of chronic bronchitis, community acquired pneumonia, complicated urinary tract infection including Pyelonephritis, chronic bacterial prostatitis and skin and soft tissue infection. Levofloxacin is a frequently prescribed antibacterial agent with Diclofenac Sodium for pain management in infectious conditions. The objective of the present work is to evaluate the level of interaction between Levofloxacin and Diclofenac Sodium. In this work market available brands of both drugs were also evaluated for quality.The physiochemical parameters like weight variation, thickness variation, and mechanical strength were determined. Similarly the percentage drug release and content uniformity test were also analyzed; the tested quality attributes were found within the recommended pharmacopeia ranges except brand L(6) that had high drug content 124.629±3.614 while brand L(4) and L(5) were not found similar in pH 1.2. When subjected to model dependent analysis Levofloxacin showed compliance with (first order, Higuchi, Hixson Crowell and Weibull) at pH (1.2, 4.5 and 6.8). However Diclofenac Sodium showed adherence with (first order, Hixson Crowell and Weibull) at pH (1.2, 4.5 and 6.8) but following Higuchi at pH 1.2 and 4.5 only. The interaction studies were also performed spectrophotometrically and simultaneous equation was used to estimate the percentage availability of both the drugs at pH 4.5, 6.8, FaSSGF and FaSSIF. The studies showed that the percent availability of Levofloxacin was increased significantly in FaSSIF i.e. 129.173±0.323 at 45 minutes in the presence of Diclofenac Sodium.

Determination of Turboprop Reduction Gearbox System Fatigue Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Lewicki, David G.; Savage, Michael; Vlcek, Brian L.

2007-01-01

Two computational models to determine the fatigue life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox are compared with each other and with field data. These models are (1) Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives of individual bearings and gears comprising the system and (2) two-parameter Weibull distribution function for bearings and gears comprising the system using strict-series system reliability to combine the calculated individual component lives in the gearbox. The Monte Carlo simulation included the virtual testing of 744,450 gearboxes. Two sets of field data were obtained from 64 gearboxes that were first-run to removal for cause, were refurbished and placed back in service, and then were second-run until removal for cause. A series of equations were empirically developed from the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical variation in predicted life and Weibull slope as a function of the number of gearboxes failed. The resultant L(sub 10) life from the field data was 5,627 hr. From strict-series system reliability, the predicted L(sub 10) life was 774 hr. From the Monte Carlo simulation, the median value for the L(sub 10) gearbox lives equaled 757 hr. Half of the gearbox L(sub 10) lives will be less than this value and the other half more. The resultant L(sub 10) life of the second-run (refurbished) gearboxes was 1,334 hr. The apparent load-life exponent p for the roller bearings is 5.2. Were the bearing lives to be recalculated with a load-life exponent p equal to 5.2, the predicted L(sub 10) life of the gearbox would be equal to the actual life obtained in the field. The component failure distribution of the gearbox from the Monte Carlo simulation was nearly identical to that using the strict-series system reliability analysis, proving the compatibility of these methods.

Microstructural, Chemical and Mechanical Characterization of Polymer-Derived Hi-Nicalon Fibers with Surface Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.; Chen, Yuan L.

1998-01-01

Room temperature tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having BN/SiC, p-BN/SiC, and p-B(Si)N/SiC surface coatings, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, were measured using an average fiber diameter of 13.5 microns. The Weibull statistical parameters were determined for each fiber. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon on was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. Strength of fibers coated with BN/SiC did not change. However, coat with p-BN/SiC and p-B(Si)N/SiC surface layers showed strength loss of approx. 10 and 35 percent, respectively, compared with as-received fibers. The elemental compositions of the fibers and the coatings were analyzed using scanning Auger microprobe and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. The BN coating was contaminated with a large concentration of carbon and some oxygen. In contrast, p-BN, p-B(Si)N, and SiC coatings did not show any contamination. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and selected area electron diffraction. Hi-Nicalon fiber consists of the P-SIC nanocrystals ranging in size from 1 to 30 nm embedded in an amorphous matrix. TEM analysis of the BN coating revealed four distinct layers with turbostatic structure. The p-BN layer was turbostratic and showed considerable preferred orientation. The p-B(Si)N was glassy and the silicon and boron were uniformly distributed. The silicon carbide coating was polycrystalline with a columnar structure along the growth direction. The p-B(Si)N/SiC coatings were more uniform, less defective and of better quality than the BN/SiC or the p-BN/SiC coatings.

Comparison of Thermal and Non-Thermal Processing of Swine Feed and the Use of Selected Feed Additives on Inactivation of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV)

PubMed Central

Trudeau, Michaela P.; Verma, Harsha; Sampedro, Fernando; Urriola, Pedro E.; Shurson, Gerald C.; McKelvey, Jessica; Pillai, Suresh D.; Goyal, Sagar M.

2016-01-01

Infection with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes diarrhea, vomiting, and high mortality in suckling pigs. Contaminated feed has been suggested as a vehicle of transmission for PEDV. The objective of this study was to compare thermal and electron beam processing, and the inclusion of feed additives on the inactivation of PEDV in feed. Feed samples were spiked with PEDV and then heated to 120–145°C for up to 30 min or irradiated at 0–50 kGy. Another set of feed samples spiked with PEDV and mixed with Ultracid P (Nutriad), Activate DA (Novus International), KEM-GEST (Kemin Agrifood), Acid Booster (Agri-Nutrition), sugar or salt was incubated at room temperature (~25°C) for up to 21 days. At the end of incubation, the virus titers were determined by inoculation of Vero-81 cells and the virus inactivation kinetics were modeled using the Weibull distribution model. The Weibull kinetic parameter delta represented the time or eBeam dose required to reduce virus concentration by 1 log. For thermal processing, delta values ranged from 16.52 min at 120°C to 1.30 min at 145°C. For eBeam processing, a target dose of 50 kGy reduced PEDV concentration by 3 log. All additives tested were effective in reducing the survival of PEDV when compared with the control sample (delta = 17.23 days). Activate DA (0.81) and KEM-GEST (3.28) produced the fastest inactivation. In conclusion, heating swine feed at temperatures over 130°C or eBeam processing of feed with a dose over 50 kGy are effective processing steps to reduce PEDV survival. Additionally, the inclusion of selected additives can decrease PEDV survivability. PMID:27341670

Shape parameters explain data from spatial transformations: comment on Pearce et al. (2004) and Tommasi & Polli (2004).

PubMed

Cheng, Ken; Gallistel, C R

2005-04-01

In 2 recent studies on rats (J. M. Pearce, M. A. Good, P. M. Jones, & A. McGregor, see record 2004-12429-006) and chicks (L. Tommasi & C. Polli, see record 2004-15642-007), the animals were trained to search in 1 corner of a rectilinear space. When tested in transformed spaces of different shapes, the animals still showed systematic choices. Both articles rejected the global matching of shape in favor of local matching processes. The present authors show that although matching by shape congruence is unlikely, matching by the shape parameter of the 1st principal axis can explain all the data. Other shape parameters, such as symmetry axes, may do even better. Animals are likely to use some global matching to constrain and guide the use of local cues; such use keeps local matching processes from exploding in complexity.

Modeling of pathogen survival during simulated gastric digestion.

PubMed

Koseki, Shige; Mizuno, Yasuko; Sotome, Itaru

2011-02-01

The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model of pathogenic bacterial inactivation kinetics in a gastric environment in order to further understand a part of the infectious dose-response mechanism. The major bacterial pathogens Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. were examined by using simulated gastric fluid adjusted to various pH values. To correspond to the various pHs in a stomach during digestion, a modified logistic differential equation model and the Weibull differential equation model were examined. The specific inactivation rate for each pathogen was successfully described by a square-root model as a function of pH. The square-root models were combined with the modified logistic differential equation to obtain a complete inactivation curve. Both the modified logistic and Weibull models provided a highly accurate fitting of the static pH conditions for every pathogen. However, while the residuals plots of the modified logistic model indicated no systematic bias and/or regional prediction problems, the residuals plots of the Weibull model showed a systematic bias. The modified logistic model appropriately predicted the pathogen behavior in the simulated gastric digestion process with actual food, including cut lettuce, minced tuna, hamburger, and scrambled egg. Although the developed model enabled us to predict pathogen inactivation during gastric digestion, its results also suggested that the ingested bacteria in the stomach would barely be inactivated in the real digestion process. The results of this study will provide important information on a part of the dose-response mechanism of bacterial pathogens.

The flexural properties of endodontic post materials.

PubMed

Stewardson, Dominic A; Shortall, Adrian C; Marquis, Peter M; Lumley, Philip J

2010-08-01

To measure the flexural strengths and moduli of endodontic post materials and to assess the effect on the calculated flexural properties of varying the diameter/length (D/L) ratio of three-point bend test samples. Three-point bend testing of samples of 2mm diameter metal and fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) rods was carried out and the mechanical properties calculated at support widths of 16 mm, 32 mm and 64 mm. Weibull analysis was performed on the strength data. The flexural strengths of all the FRC post materials exceeded the yield strengths of the gold and stainless steel samples; the flexural strengths of two FRC materials were comparable with the yield strength of titanium. Stainless steel recorded the highest flexural modulus while the titanium and the two carbon fiber materials exhibited similar values just exceeding that of gold. The remaining glass fiber materials were of lower modulus within the range of 41-57 GPa. Weibull modulus values for the FRC materials ranged from 16.77 to 30.09. Decreasing the L/D ratio produced a marked decrease in flexural modulus for all materials. The flexural strengths of FRC endodontic post materials as new generally exceed the yield strengths of metals from which endodontic posts are made. The high Weibull modulus values suggest good clinical reliability of FRC posts. The flexural modulus values of the tested posts were from 2-6 times (FRC) to 4-10 times (metal) that of dentin. Valid measurement of flexural properties of endodontic post materials requires that test samples have appropriate L/D ratios. Copyright 2010 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Pathogen Survival during Simulated Gastric Digestion ▿

PubMed Central

Koseki, Shige; Mizuno, Yasuko; Sotome, Itaru

2011-01-01

The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model of pathogenic bacterial inactivation kinetics in a gastric environment in order to further understand a part of the infectious dose-response mechanism. The major bacterial pathogens Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. were examined by using simulated gastric fluid adjusted to various pH values. To correspond to the various pHs in a stomach during digestion, a modified logistic differential equation model and the Weibull differential equation model were examined. The specific inactivation rate for each pathogen was successfully described by a square-root model as a function of pH. The square-root models were combined with the modified logistic differential equation to obtain a complete inactivation curve. Both the modified logistic and Weibull models provided a highly accurate fitting of the static pH conditions for every pathogen. However, while the residuals plots of the modified logistic model indicated no systematic bias and/or regional prediction problems, the residuals plots of the Weibull model showed a systematic bias. The modified logistic model appropriately predicted the pathogen behavior in the simulated gastric digestion process with actual food, including cut lettuce, minced tuna, hamburger, and scrambled egg. Although the developed model enabled us to predict pathogen inactivation during gastric digestion, its results also suggested that the ingested bacteria in the stomach would barely be inactivated in the real digestion process. The results of this study will provide important information on a part of the dose-response mechanism of bacterial pathogens. PMID:21131530

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, Gerd M.; Omotoso, Oluseun; Chen, Guangming; Evans, John W.

2012-01-01

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Parametric analysis and temperature effect of deployable hinged shells using shape memory polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Ran; Yang, Qing-Sheng; He, Xiao-Qiao; Liew, Kim-Meow

2016-11-01

Shape memory polymers (SMPs) are a class of intelligent materials, which are defined by their capacity to store a temporary shape and recover an original shape. In this work, the shape memory effect of SMP deployable hinged shell is simulated by using compiled user defined material subroutine (UMAT) subroutine of ABAQUS. Variations of bending moment and strain energy of the hinged shells with different temperatures and structural parameters in the loading process are given. The effects of the parameters and temperature on the nonlinear deformation process are emphasized. The entire thermodynamic cycle of SMP deployable hinged shell includes loading at high temperature, load carrying with cooling, unloading at low temperature and recovering the original shape with heating. The results show that the complicated thermo-mechanical deformation and shape memory effect of SMP deployable hinge are influenced by the structural parameters and temperature. The design ability of SMP smart hinged structures in practical application is prospected.

A net volume equation for Indiana.

Treesearch

W. Brad Smith; Carol A. Weist

1982-01-01

Describes a Weibull-type volume equation for Indiana developed as part of the ongoing Resource Evaluation research in the Central States. Equation coefficients are presented by species groupings for both cubic foot and board foot volumes for three tree class categories.

Automated egg grading system using computer vision: Investigation on weight measure versus shape parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, Ahmad Fakhri Ab; Suhaila Sabarudin, Siti; Majeed, Anwar P. P. Abdul; Ghani, Ahmad Shahrizan Abdul

2018-04-01

Chicken egg is a source of food of high demand by humans. Human operators cannot work perfectly and continuously when conducting egg grading. Instead of an egg grading system using weight measure, an automatic system for egg grading using computer vision (using egg shape parameter) can be used to improve the productivity of egg grading. However, early hypothesis has indicated that more number of egg classes will change when using egg shape parameter compared with using weight measure. This paper presents the comparison of egg classification by the two above-mentioned methods. Firstly, 120 images of chicken eggs of various grades (A–D) produced in Malaysia are captured. Then, the egg images are processed using image pre-processing techniques, such as image cropping, smoothing and segmentation. Thereafter, eight egg shape features, including area, major axis length, minor axis length, volume, diameter and perimeter, are extracted. Lastly, feature selection (information gain ratio) and feature extraction (principal component analysis) are performed using k-nearest neighbour classifier in the classification process. Two methods, namely, supervised learning (using weight measure as graded by egg supplier) and unsupervised learning (using egg shape parameters as graded by ourselves), are conducted to execute the experiment. Clustering results reveal many changes in egg classes after performing shape-based grading. On average, the best recognition results using shape-based grading label is 94.16% while using weight-based label is 44.17%. As conclusion, automated egg grading system using computer vision is better by implementing shape-based features since it uses image meanwhile the weight parameter is more suitable by using weight grading system.

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. Methods To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. Results The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. Conclusions Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption. PMID:22490226

Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.

2007-08-01

The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These statistics are particularly important for earthquakes. For earthquakes it is important to make a distinction between interoccurrence and recurrence times. Interoccurrence times are the interval times between earthquakes on all faults in a region whereas recurrence times are interval times between earthquakes on a single fault or fault segment. In many, but not all cases, interoccurrence time statistics are exponential (Poissonian) and the events occur randomly. However, the distribution of recurrence times are often Weibull to a good approximation. In this paper we study the interval statistics of slip events using a slider-block model. The behavior of this model is sensitive to the stiffness α of the system, α=kC/kL where kC is the spring constant of the connector springs and kL is the spring constant of the loader plate springs. For a soft system (small α) there are no system-wide events and interoccurrence time statistics of the larger events are Poissonian. For a stiff system (large α), system-wide events dominate the energy dissipation and the statistics of the recurrence times between these system-wide events satisfy the Weibull distribution to a good approximation. We argue that this applicability of the Weibull distribution is due to the power-law (scale invariant) behavior of the hazard function, i.e. the probability that the next event will occur at a time t0 after the last event has a power-law dependence on t0. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale invariant hazard function. We further show that the onset of system-wide events is a well defined critical point. We find that the number of system-wide events NSWE satisfies the scaling relation NSWE ∝(α-αC)δ where αC is the critical value of the stiffness. The system-wide events represent a new phase for the slider-block system.

Preliminary Investigation of Ice Shape Sensitivity to Parameter Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Dean R.; Potapczuk, Mark G.; Langhals, Tammy J.

2005-01-01

A parameter sensitivity study was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) using a 36 in. chord (0.91 m) NACA-0012 airfoil. The objective of this preliminary work was to investigate the feasibility of using ice shape feature changes to define requirements for the simulation and measurement of SLD icing conditions. It was desired to identify the minimum change (threshold) in a parameter value, which yielded an observable change in the ice shape. Liquid Water Content (LWC), drop size distribution (MVD), and tunnel static temperature were varied about a nominal value, and the effects of these parameter changes on the resulting ice shapes were documented. The resulting differences in ice shapes were compared on the basis of qualitative and quantitative criteria (e.g., mass, ice horn thickness, ice horn angle, icing limits, and iced area). This paper will provide a description of the experimental method, present selected experimental results, and conclude with an evaluation of these results, followed by a discussion of recommendations for future research.

Experimental identification of a comb-shaped chaotic region in multiple parameter spaces simulated by the Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bing

2014-03-01

A comb-shaped chaotic region has been simulated in multiple two-dimensional parameter spaces using the Hindmarsh—Rose (HR) neuron model in many recent studies, which can interpret almost all of the previously simulated bifurcation processes with chaos in neural firing patterns. In the present paper, a comb-shaped chaotic region in a two-dimensional parameter space was reproduced, which presented different processes of period-adding bifurcations with chaos with changing one parameter and fixed the other parameter at different levels. In the biological experiments, different period-adding bifurcation scenarios with chaos by decreasing the extra-cellular calcium concentration were observed from some neural pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular 4-aminopyridine concentration and from other pacemakers at different levels of extra-cellular caesium concentration. By using the nonlinear time series analysis method, the deterministic dynamics of the experimental chaotic firings were investigated. The period-adding bifurcations with chaos observed in the experiments resembled those simulated in the comb-shaped chaotic region using the HR model. The experimental results show that period-adding bifurcations with chaos are preserved in different two-dimensional parameter spaces, which provides evidence of the existence of the comb-shaped chaotic region and a demonstration of the simulation results in different two-dimensional parameter spaces in the HR neuron model. The results also present relationships between different firing patterns in two-dimensional parameter spaces.

Small UAS-Based Wind Feature Identification System Part 1: Integration and Validation

PubMed Central

Rodriguez Salazar, Leopoldo; Cobano, Jose A.; Ollero, Anibal

2016-01-01

This paper presents a system for identification of wind features, such as gusts and wind shear. These are of particular interest in the context of energy-efficient navigation of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). The proposed system generates real-time wind vector estimates and a novel algorithm to generate wind field predictions. Estimations are based on the integration of an off-the-shelf navigation system and airspeed readings in a so-called direct approach. Wind predictions use atmospheric models to characterize the wind field with different statistical analyses. During the prediction stage, the system is able to incorporate, in a big-data approach, wind measurements from previous flights in order to enhance the approximations. Wind estimates are classified and fitted into a Weibull probability density function. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) is utilized to determine the shaping and scale parameters of the distribution, which are employed to determine the most probable wind speed at a certain position. The system uses this information to characterize a wind shear or a discrete gust and also utilizes a Gaussian Process regression to characterize continuous gusts. The knowledge of the wind features is crucial for computing energy-efficient trajectories with low cost and payload. Therefore, the system provides a solution that does not require any additional sensors. The system architecture presents a modular decentralized approach, in which the main parts of the system are separated in modules and the exchange of information is managed by a communication handler to enhance upgradeability and maintainability. Validation is done providing preliminary results of both simulations and Software-In-The-Loop testing. Telemetry data collected from real flights, performed in the Seville Metropolitan Area in Andalusia (Spain), was used for testing. Results show that wind estimation and predictions can be calculated at 1 Hz and a wind map can be updated at 0.4 Hz. Predictions show a convergence time with a 95% confidence interval of approximately 30 s. PMID:28025531

Small UAS-Based Wind Feature Identification System Part 1: Integration and Validation.

PubMed

Rodriguez Salazar, Leopoldo; Cobano, Jose A; Ollero, Anibal

2016-12-23

This paper presents a system for identification of wind features, such as gusts and wind shear. These are of particular interest in the context of energy-efficient navigation of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). The proposed system generates real-time wind vector estimates and a novel algorithm to generate wind field predictions. Estimations are based on the integration of an off-the-shelf navigation system and airspeed readings in a so-called direct approach. Wind predictions use atmospheric models to characterize the wind field with different statistical analyses. During the prediction stage, the system is able to incorporate, in a big-data approach, wind measurements from previous flights in order to enhance the approximations. Wind estimates are classified and fitted into a Weibull probability density function. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) is utilized to determine the shaping and scale parameters of the distribution, which are employed to determine the most probable wind speed at a certain position. The system uses this information to characterize a wind shear or a discrete gust and also utilizes a Gaussian Process regression to characterize continuous gusts. The knowledge of the wind features is crucial for computing energy-efficient trajectories with low cost and payload. Therefore, the system provides a solution that does not require any additional sensors. The system architecture presents a modular decentralized approach, in which the main parts of the system are separated in modules and the exchange of information is managed by a communication handler to enhance upgradeability and maintainability. Validation is done providing preliminary results of both simulations and Software-In-The-Loop testing. Telemetry data collected from real flights, performed in the Seville Metropolitan Area in Andalusia (Spain), was used for testing. Results show that wind estimation and predictions can be calculated at 1 Hz and a wind map can be updated at 0.4 Hz . Predictions show a convergence time with a 95% confidence interval of approximately 30 s .

Time-dependent dielectric breakdown of atomic-layer-deposited Al2O3 films on GaN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiraiwa, Atsushi; Sasaki, Toshio; Okubo, Satoshi; Horikawa, Kiyotaka; Kawarada, Hiroshi

2018-04-01

Atomic-layer-deposited (ALD) Al2O3 films are the most promising surface passivation and gate insulation layers in non-Si semiconductor devices. Here, we carried out an extensive study on the time-dependent dielectric breakdown characteristics of ALD-Al2O3 films formed on homo-epitaxial GaN substrates using two different oxidants at two different ALD temperatures. The breakdown times were approximated by Weibull distributions with average shape parameters of 8 or larger. These values are reasonably consistent with percolation theory predictions and are sufficiently large to neglect the wear-out lifetime distribution in assessing the long-term reliability of the Al2O3 films. The 63% lifetime of the Al2O3 films increases exponentially with a decreasing field, as observed in thermally grown SiO2 films at low fields. This exponential relationship disproves the correlation between the lifetime and the leakage current. Additionally, the lifetime decreases with measurement temperature with the most remarkable reduction observed in high-temperature (450 °C) O3-grown films. This result agrees with that from a previous study, thereby ruling out high-temperature O3 ALD as a gate insulation process. When compared at 200 °C under an equivalent SiO2 field of 4 MV/cm, which is a design guideline for thermal SiO2 on Si, high-temperature H2O-grown Al2O3 films have the longest lifetimes, uniquely achieving the reliability target of 20 years. However, this target is accomplished by a relatively narrow margin and, therefore, improvements in the lifetime are expected to be made, along with efforts to decrease the density of extrinsic Al2O3 defects, if any, to promote the practical use of ALD Al2O3 films.

Marginal Shape Deep Learning: Applications to Pediatric Lung Field Segmentation.

PubMed

Mansoor, Awais; Cerrolaza, Juan J; Perez, Geovanny; Biggs, Elijah; Nino, Gustavo; Linguraru, Marius George

2017-02-11

Representation learning through deep learning (DL) architecture has shown tremendous potential for identification, localization, and texture classification in various medical imaging modalities. However, DL applications to segmentation of objects especially to deformable objects are rather limited and mostly restricted to pixel classification. In this work, we propose marginal shape deep learning (MaShDL), a framework that extends the application of DL to deformable shape segmentation by using deep classifiers to estimate the shape parameters. MaShDL combines the strength of statistical shape models with the automated feature learning architecture of DL. Unlike the iterative shape parameters estimation approach of classical shape models that often leads to a local minima, the proposed framework is robust to local minima optimization and illumination changes. Furthermore, since the direct application of DL framework to a multi-parameter estimation problem results in a very high complexity, our framework provides an excellent run-time performance solution by independently learning shape parameter classifiers in marginal eigenspaces in the decreasing order of variation. We evaluated MaShDL for segmenting the lung field from 314 normal and abnormal pediatric chest radiographs and obtained a mean Dice similarity coefficient of 0.927 using only the four highest modes of variation (compared to 0.888 with classical ASM 1 (p-value=0.01) using same configuration). To the best of our knowledge this is the first demonstration of using DL framework for parametrized shape learning for the delineation of deformable objects.

Marginal shape deep learning: applications to pediatric lung field segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansoor, Awais; Cerrolaza, Juan J.; Perez, Geovany; Biggs, Elijah; Nino, Gustavo; Linguraru, Marius George

2017-02-01

Representation learning through deep learning (DL) architecture has shown tremendous potential for identification, local- ization, and texture classification in various medical imaging modalities. However, DL applications to segmentation of objects especially to deformable objects are rather limited and mostly restricted to pixel classification. In this work, we propose marginal shape deep learning (MaShDL), a framework that extends the application of DL to deformable shape segmentation by using deep classifiers to estimate the shape parameters. MaShDL combines the strength of statistical shape models with the automated feature learning architecture of DL. Unlike the iterative shape parameters estimation approach of classical shape models that often leads to a local minima, the proposed framework is robust to local minima optimization and illumination changes. Furthermore, since the direct application of DL framework to a multi-parameter estimation problem results in a very high complexity, our framework provides an excellent run-time performance solution by independently learning shape parameter classifiers in marginal eigenspaces in the decreasing order of variation. We evaluated MaShDL for segmenting the lung field from 314 normal and abnormal pediatric chest radiographs and obtained a mean Dice similarity coefficient of 0:927 using only the four highest modes of variation (compared to 0:888 with classical ASM1 (p-value=0:01) using same configuration). To the best of our knowledge this is the first demonstration of using DL framework for parametrized shape learning for the delineation of deformable objects.

Marginal Shape Deep Learning: Applications to Pediatric Lung Field Segmentation

PubMed Central

Mansoor, Awais; Cerrolaza, Juan J.; Perez, Geovanny; Biggs, Elijah; Nino, Gustavo; Linguraru, Marius George

2017-01-01

Representation learning through deep learning (DL) architecture has shown tremendous potential for identification, localization, and texture classification in various medical imaging modalities. However, DL applications to segmentation of objects especially to deformable objects are rather limited and mostly restricted to pixel classification. In this work, we propose marginal shape deep learning (MaShDL), a framework that extends the application of DL to deformable shape segmentation by using deep classifiers to estimate the shape parameters. MaShDL combines the strength of statistical shape models with the automated feature learning architecture of DL. Unlike the iterative shape parameters estimation approach of classical shape models that often leads to a local minima, the proposed framework is robust to local minima optimization and illumination changes. Furthermore, since the direct application of DL framework to a multi-parameter estimation problem results in a very high complexity, our framework provides an excellent run-time performance solution by independently learning shape parameter classifiers in marginal eigenspaces in the decreasing order of variation. We evaluated MaShDL for segmenting the lung field from 314 normal and abnormal pediatric chest radiographs and obtained a mean Dice similarity coefficient of 0.927 using only the four highest modes of variation (compared to 0.888 with classical ASM1 (p-value=0.01) using same configuration). To the best of our knowledge this is the first demonstration of using DL framework for parametrized shape learning for the delineation of deformable objects. PMID:28592911

Assessment of the accuracy of plasma shape reconstruction by the Cauchy condition surface method in JT-60SA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miyata, Y.; Suzuki, T.; Takechi, M.

2015-07-15

For the purpose of stable plasma equilibrium control and detailed analysis, it is essential to reconstruct an accurate plasma boundary on the poloidal cross section in tokamak devices. The Cauchy condition surface (CCS) method is a numerical approach for calculating the spatial distribution of the magnetic flux outside a hypothetical surface and reconstructing the plasma boundary from the magnetic measurements located outside the plasma. The accuracy of the plasma shape reconstruction has been assessed by comparing the CCS method and an equilibrium calculation in JT-60SA with a high elongation and triangularity of plasma shape. The CCS, on which both Dirichletmore » and Neumann conditions are unknown, is defined as a hypothetical surface located inside the real plasma region. The accuracy of the plasma shape reconstruction is sensitive to the CCS free parameters such as the number of unknown parameters and the shape in JT-60SA. It is found that the optimum number of unknown parameters and the size of the CCS that minimizes errors in the reconstructed plasma shape are in proportion to the plasma size. Furthermore, it is shown that the accuracy of the plasma shape reconstruction is greatly improved using the optimum number of unknown parameters and shape of the CCS, and the reachable reconstruction errors in plasma shape and locations of strike points are within the target ranges in JT-60SA.« less

Shadow casted by a Konoplya-Zhidenko rotating non-Kerr black hole

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Mingzhi; Chen, Songbai; Jing, Jiliang, E-mail: wmz9085@126.com, E-mail: csb3752@hunnu.edu.cn, E-mail: jljing@hunnu.edu.cn

We have investigated the shadow of a Konoplya-Zhidenko rotating non-Kerr black hole with an extra deformation parameter. The spacetime structure arising from the deformed parameter affects sharply the black hole shadow. With the increase of the deformation parameter, the size of the shadow of black hole increase and its shape becomes more rounded for arbitrary rotation parameter. The D-shape shadow of black hole emerges only in the case a <2√3/3\\, M with the proper deformation parameter. Especially, the black hole shadow possesses a cusp shape with small eye lashes in the cases with a >M, and the shadow becomes lessmore » cuspidal with the increase of the deformation parameter. Our result show that the presence of the deformation parameter yields a series of significant patterns for the shadow casted by a Konoplya-Zhidenko rotating non-Kerr black hole.« less

Adapting Shape Parameters for Cubic Bezier Curves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isacoff, D.; Bailey, M. J.

1985-01-01

Bezier curves are an established tool in Computer Aided Geometric Design. One of the drawbacks of the Bezier method is that the curves often bear little resemblance to their control polygons. As a result, it becomes increasingly difficult to obtain anything but a rough outline of the desired shape. One possible solution is tomanipulate the curve itself instead of the control polygon. The standard cubic Bezier curve form has introduced into it two shape parameters, gamma 1 and 2. These parameters give the user the ability to manipulate the curve while the control polygon retains its original form, thereby providing a more intuitive feel for the necessary changes to the curve in order to achieve the desired shape.

The Impact Of Surface Shape Of Chip-Breaker On Machined Surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šajgalík, Michal; Czán, Andrej; Martinček, Juraj; Varga, Daniel; Hemžský, Pavel; Pitela, David

2015-12-01

Machined surface is one of the most used indicators of workpiece quality. But machined surface is influenced by several factors such as cutting parameters, cutting material, shape of cutting tool or cutting insert, micro-structure of machined material and other known as technological parameters. By improving of these parameters, we can improve machined surface. In the machining, there is important to identify the characteristics of main product of these processes - workpiece, but also the byproduct - the chip. Size and shape of chip has impact on lifetime of cutting tools and its inappropriate form can influence the machine functionality and lifetime, too. This article deals with elimination of long chip created when machining of shaft in automotive industry and with impact of shape of chip-breaker on shape of chip in various cutting conditions based on production requirements.

Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, Mark

2009-01-01

qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

Modeling the shape and composition of the human body using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry images

PubMed Central

Shepherd, John A.; Fan, Bo; Schwartz, Ann V.; Cawthon, Peggy; Cummings, Steven R.; Kritchevsky, Stephen; Nevitt, Michael; Santanasto, Adam; Cootes, Timothy F.

2017-01-01

There is growing evidence that body shape and regional body composition are strong indicators of metabolic health. The purpose of this study was to develop statistical models that accurately describe holistic body shape, thickness, and leanness. We hypothesized that there are unique body shape features that are predictive of mortality beyond standard clinical measures. We developed algorithms to process whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans into body thickness and leanness images. We performed statistical appearance modeling (SAM) and principal component analysis (PCA) to efficiently encode the variance of body shape, leanness, and thickness across sample of 400 older Americans from the Health ABC study. The sample included 200 cases and 200 controls based on 6-year mortality status, matched on sex, race and BMI. The final model contained 52 points outlining the torso, upper arms, thighs, and bony landmarks. Correlation analyses were performed on the PCA parameters to identify body shape features that vary across groups and with metabolic risk. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to identify sex and race, and predict mortality risk as a function of body shape parameters. These parameters are novel body composition features that uniquely identify body phenotypes of different groups and predict mortality risk. Three parameters from a SAM of body leanness and thickness accurately identified sex (training AUC = 0.99) and six accurately identified race (training AUC = 0.91) in the sample dataset. Three parameters from a SAM of only body thickness predicted mortality (training AUC = 0.66, validation AUC = 0.62). Further study is warranted to identify specific shape/composition features that predict other health outcomes. PMID:28423041

Not all nonnormal distributions are created equal: Improved theoretical and measurement precision.

PubMed

Joo, Harry; Aguinis, Herman; Bradley, Kyle J

2017-07-01

We offer a four-category taxonomy of individual output distributions (i.e., distributions of cumulative results): (1) pure power law; (2) lognormal; (3) exponential tail (including exponential and power law with an exponential cutoff); and (4) symmetric or potentially symmetric (including normal, Poisson, and Weibull). The four categories are uniquely associated with mutually exclusive generative mechanisms: self-organized criticality, proportionate differentiation, incremental differentiation, and homogenization. We then introduce distribution pitting, a falsification-based method for comparing distributions to assess how well each one fits a given data set. In doing so, we also introduce decision rules to determine the likely dominant shape and generative mechanism among many that may operate concurrently. Next, we implement distribution pitting using 229 samples of individual output for several occupations (e.g., movie directors, writers, musicians, athletes, bank tellers, call center employees, grocery checkers, electrical fixture assemblers, and wirers). Results suggest that for 75% of our samples, exponential tail distributions and their generative mechanism (i.e., incremental differentiation) likely constitute the dominant distribution shape and explanation of nonnormally distributed individual output. This finding challenges past conclusions indicating the pervasiveness of other types of distributions and their generative mechanisms. Our results further contribute to theory by offering premises about the link between past and future individual output. For future research, our taxonomy and methodology can be used to pit distributions of other variables (e.g., organizational citizenship behaviors). Finally, we offer practical insights on how to increase overall individual output and produce more top performers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamics in the Parameter Space of a Neuron Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulo, C. Rech

2012-06-01

Some two-dimensional parameter-space diagrams are numerically obtained by considering the largest Lyapunov exponent for a four-dimensional thirteen-parameter Hindmarsh—Rose neuron model. Several different parameter planes are considered, and it is shown that depending on the combination of parameters, a typical scenario can be preserved: for some choice of two parameters, the parameter plane presents a comb-shaped chaotic region embedded in a large periodic region. It is also shown that there exist regions close to these comb-shaped chaotic regions, separated by the comb teeth, organizing themselves in period-adding bifurcation cascades.

Risk estimates for CO exposure in man based on behavioral and physiological responses in rodents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, M. K.

1983-01-01

An examination of animal response to CO is studied along with potential models for extrapolating animal test data to humans. The best models for extrapolating data were found to be the Probit and Weibull models.

MSW Time to Tumor Model and Supporting Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The multistage Weibull (MSW) time-to-tumor model and related documentation were developed principally (but not exclusively) for conducting time-to-tumor analyses to support risk assessments under the IRIS program. These programs and related docum...

Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC-SiC CMC tubular test specimens [Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC/SiC tubes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Gyanender P.; Gonczy, Steve T.; Deck, Christian P.

An interlaboratory round robin study was conducted on the tensile strength of SiC–SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) tubular test specimens at room temperature with the objective of expanding the database of mechanical properties of nuclear grade SiC–SiC and establishing the precision and bias statement for standard test method ASTM C1773. The mechanical properties statistics from the round robin study and the precision statistics and precision statement are presented herein. The data show reasonable consistency across the laboratories, indicating that the current C1773–13 ASTM standard is adequate for testing ceramic fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composite tubular test specimen. Furthermore, it wasmore » found that the distribution of ultimate tensile strength data was best described with a two–parameter Weibull distribution, while a lognormal distribution provided a good description of the distribution of proportional limit stress data.« less

Response kinetics of tethered bacteria to stepwise changes in nutrient concentration.

PubMed

Chernova, Anna A; Armitage, Judith P; Packer, Helen L; Maini, Philip K

2003-09-01

We examined the changes in swimming behaviour of the bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides in response to stepwise changes in a nutrient (propionate), following the pre-stimulus motion, the initial response and the adaptation to the sustained concentration of the chemical. This was carried out by tethering motile cells by their flagella to glass slides and following the rotational behaviour of their cell bodies in response to the nutrient change. Computerised motion analysis was used to analyse the behaviour. Distributions of run and stop times were obtained from rotation data for tethered cells. Exponential and Weibull fits for these distributions, and variability in individual responses are discussed. In terms of parameters derived from the run and stop time distributions, we compare the responses to stepwise changes in the nutrient concentration and the long-term behaviour of 84 cells under 12 propionate concentration levels from 1 nM to 25 mM. We discuss traditional assumptions for the random walk approximation to bacterial swimming and compare them with the observed R. sphaeroides motile behaviour.

A case study of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm of July 11, 1978. I - Analysis of the data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nisbet, John S.; Barnard, Theresa A.; Forbes, Gregory S.; Krider, E. Philip; Lhermitte, Roger

1990-01-01

The data obtained at the time of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm at the Kennedy Space Center on July 11, 1978 are analyzed in a model-independent manner. The data base included data from three Doppler radars, a lightning detection and ranging system and a network of 25 electric field mills, and rain gages. Electric field measurements were used to analyze the charge moments transferred by lightning flashes, and the data were fitted to Weibull distributions; these were used to estimate statistical parameters of the lightning for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes and to estimate the fraction of the flashes which were below the observation threshold. The displacement and the conduction current densities were calculated from electric field measurements between flashes. These values were used to derive the magnitudes and the locations of dipole and monopole generators by least squares fitting the measured Maxwell current densities to the displacement-dominated equations.

Effects of Planetary Gear Ratio on Mean Service Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Rubadeux, K. L.; Coe, H. H.

1996-01-01

Planetary gear transmissions are compact, high-power speed reductions which use parallel load paths. The range of possible reduction ratios is bounded from below and above by limits on the relative size of the planet gears. For a single plane transmission, the planet gear has no size at a ratio of two. As the ratio increases, so does the size of the planets relative to the sizes of the sun and ring. Which ratio is best for a planetary reduction can be resolved by studying a series of optimal designs. In this series, each design is obtained by maximizing the service life for a planetary with a fixed size, gear ratio, input speed power and materials. The planetary gear reduction service life is modeled as a function of the two-parameter Weibull distributed service lives of the bearings and gears in the reduction. Planet bearing life strongly influences the optimal reduction lives which point to an optimal planetary reduction ratio in the neighborhood of four to five.

ETARA PC version 3.3 user's guide: Reliability, availability, maintainability simulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, David J.; Viterna, Larry A.

1991-01-01

A user's manual describing an interactive, menu-driven, personal computer based Monte Carlo reliability, availability, and maintainability simulation program called event time availability reliability (ETARA) is discussed. Given a reliability block diagram representation of a system, ETARA simulates the behavior of the system over a specified period of time using Monte Carlo methods to generate block failure and repair intervals as a function of exponential and/or Weibull distributions. Availability parameters such as equivalent availability, state availability (percentage of time as a particular output state capability), continuous state duration and number of state occurrences can be calculated. Initial spares allotment and spares replenishment on a resupply cycle can be simulated. The number of block failures are tabulated both individually and by block type, as well as total downtime, repair time, and time waiting for spares. Also, maintenance man-hours per year and system reliability, with or without repair, at or above a particular output capability can be calculated over a cumulative period of time or at specific points in time.

The topology of large Open Connectome networks for the human brain.

PubMed

Gastner, Michael T; Ódor, Géza

2016-06-07

The structural human connectome (i.e. the network of fiber connections in the brain) can be analyzed at ever finer spatial resolution thanks to advances in neuroimaging. Here we analyze several large data sets for the human brain network made available by the Open Connectome Project. We apply statistical model selection to characterize the degree distributions of graphs containing up to nodes and edges. A three-parameter generalized Weibull (also known as a stretched exponential) distribution is a good fit to most of the observed degree distributions. For almost all networks, simple power laws cannot fit the data, but in some cases there is statistical support for power laws with an exponential cutoff. We also calculate the topological (graph) dimension D and the small-world coefficient σ of these networks. While σ suggests a small-world topology, we found that D < 4 showing that long-distance connections provide only a small correction to the topology of the embedding three-dimensional space.

The topology of large Open Connectome networks for the human brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastner, Michael T.; Ódor, Géza

2016-06-01

The structural human connectome (i.e. the network of fiber connections in the brain) can be analyzed at ever finer spatial resolution thanks to advances in neuroimaging. Here we analyze several large data sets for the human brain network made available by the Open Connectome Project. We apply statistical model selection to characterize the degree distributions of graphs containing up to nodes and edges. A three-parameter generalized Weibull (also known as a stretched exponential) distribution is a good fit to most of the observed degree distributions. For almost all networks, simple power laws cannot fit the data, but in some cases there is statistical support for power laws with an exponential cutoff. We also calculate the topological (graph) dimension D and the small-world coefficient σ of these networks. While σ suggests a small-world topology, we found that D < 4 showing that long-distance connections provide only a small correction to the topology of the embedding three-dimensional space.

Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC-SiC CMC tubular test specimens [Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC/SiC tubes

DOE PAGES

Singh, Gyanender P.; Gonczy, Steve T.; Deck, Christian P.; ...

2018-04-19

An interlaboratory round robin study was conducted on the tensile strength of SiC–SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) tubular test specimens at room temperature with the objective of expanding the database of mechanical properties of nuclear grade SiC–SiC and establishing the precision and bias statement for standard test method ASTM C1773. The mechanical properties statistics from the round robin study and the precision statistics and precision statement are presented herein. The data show reasonable consistency across the laboratories, indicating that the current C1773–13 ASTM standard is adequate for testing ceramic fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composite tubular test specimen. Furthermore, it wasmore » found that the distribution of ultimate tensile strength data was best described with a two–parameter Weibull distribution, while a lognormal distribution provided a good description of the distribution of proportional limit stress data.« less

[Application of numerical convolution in in vivo/in vitro correlation research].

PubMed

Yue, Peng

2009-01-01

This paper introduced the conception and principle of in vivo/in vitro correlation (IVIVC) and convolution/deconvolution methods, and elucidated in details the convolution strategy and method for calculating the in vivo absorption performance of the pharmaceutics according to the their pharmacokinetic data in Excel, then put the results forward to IVIVC research. Firstly, the pharmacokinetic data ware fitted by mathematical software to make up the lost points. Secondly, the parameters of the optimal fitted input function were defined by trail-and-error method according to the convolution principle in Excel under the hypothesis that all the input functions fit the Weibull functions. Finally, the IVIVC between in vivo input function and the in vitro dissolution was studied. In the examples, not only the application of this method was demonstrated in details but also its simplicity and effectiveness were proved by comparing with the compartment model method and deconvolution method. It showed to be a powerful tool for IVIVC research.

The Effect of Structural Quality on Fatigue Life in 319 Aluminum Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özdeş, Hüseyin; Tiryakioğlu, Murat

2017-02-01

Tensile and fatigue life data for 319 aluminum alloy from seventeen datasets reported in four independent studies from the literature have been reanalyzed. Analysis of fatigue life data involved mean stress correction for different R ratios used in fatigue testing, inclusion of survival (runout) data along with failure data, as well as volumetric correction for Weibull distributions for different specimen sizes used in these studies. Tensile data have been transformed into the structural quality index, Q T, which is used as a measure of the structural quality of castings. A distinct relationship has been observed between the expected fatigue life and mean quality index. Moreover, fatigue strengths at 104 and 106 cycles have been found increase with quality index, providing further evidence about the relationship observed between structural quality and fatigue performance. Empirical equations between Basquin parameters and structural quality index have been developed. The use of the comprehensive methodology to estimate fatigue life is demonstrated with an example.

Statistical modeling of optical attenuation measurements in continental fog conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Muhammad Saeed; Amin, Muhammad; Awan, Muhammad Saleem; Minhas, Abid Ali; Saleem, Jawad; Khan, Rahimdad

2017-03-01

Free-space optics is an innovative technology that uses atmosphere as a propagation medium to provide higher data rates. These links are heavily affected by atmospheric channel mainly because of fog and clouds that act to scatter and even block the modulated beam of light from reaching the receiver end, hence imposing severe attenuation. A comprehensive statistical study of the fog effects and deep physical understanding of the fog phenomena are very important for suggesting improvements (reliability and efficiency) in such communication systems. In this regard, 6-months real-time measured fog attenuation data are considered and statistically investigated. A detailed statistical analysis related to each fog event for that period is presented; the best probability density functions are selected on the basis of Akaike information criterion, while the estimates of unknown parameters are computed by maximum likelihood estimation technique. The results show that most fog attenuation events follow normal mixture distribution and some follow the Weibull distribution.

Modern methodology of designing target reliability into rotating mechanical components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kececioglu, D. B.; Chester, L. B.

1973-01-01

Experimentally determined distributional cycles-to-failure versus maximum alternating nominal strength (S-N) diagrams, and distributional mean nominal strength versus maximum alternating nominal strength (Goodman) diagrams are presented. These distributional S-N and Goodman diagrams are for AISI 4340 steel, R sub c 35/40 hardness, round, cylindrical specimens 0.735 in. in diameter and 6 in. long with a circumferential groove 0.145 in. radius for a theoretical stress concentration = 1.42 and 0.034 in. radius for a stress concentration = 2.34. The specimens are subjected to reversed bending and steady torque in specially built, three complex-fatigue research machines. Based on these results, the effects on the distributional S-N and Goodman diagrams and on service life of superimposing steady torque on reversed bending are established, as well as the effect of various stress concentrations. In addition a computer program for determining the three-parameter Weibull distribution representing the cycles-to-failure data, and two methods for calculating the reliability of components subjected to cumulative fatigue loads are given.

Anisotropy, size, and aspect ratio effects on micropillar compression of Al-SiC nanolaminate composites

DOE PAGES

Mayer, C. R.; Yang, L. W.; Singh, S. S.; ...

2016-05-20

Metal-ceramic nanolaminate composites show promise as high strength and toughness materials. Micropillar compression was used to characterize the mechanical behavior of AlSiC multilayers in different orientations including loading at 0°, 45° and 90° with respect to the direction of the layers. The 0° orientation showed the highest strength while the 45° orientation showed the lowest strength. Each orientation showed unique deformation behavior. Effects of pillar size and aspect ratio were also studied. Higher compressive strengths were observed in smaller pillars for all orientations. This effect was shown to be due to a lower probability of flaws using Weibull statistics. Additionally,more » changes in the aspect ratio was shown to have no significant effect on the behavior except an increase in the strain to failure in the 0° orientation. In conclusion, finite element analysis (FEA) was used to simulate and understand the effect of these parameters on the deformation behavior.« less

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, C.; Charpentier, R.R.; Su, J.

2011-01-01

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log-geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log-geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log-geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters. ?? 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.

Statistics of acoustic emissions and stress drops during granular shearing using a stick-slip fiber bundle mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, D.; Michlmayr, G.; Or, D.

2012-04-01

Shearing of dense granular materials appears in many engineering and Earth sciences applications. Under a constant strain rate, the shearing stress at steady state oscillates with slow rises followed by rapid drops that are linked to the build up and failure of force chains. Experiments indicate that these drops display exponential statistics. Measurements of acoustic emissions during shearing indicates that the energy liberated by failure of these force chains has power-law statistics. Representing force chains as fibers, we use a stick-slip fiber bundle model to obtain analytical solutions of the statistical distribution of stress drops and failure energy. In the model, fibers stretch, fail, and regain strength during deformation. Fibers have Weibull-distributed threshold strengths with either quenched and annealed disorder. The shape of the distribution for drops and energy obtained from the model are similar to those measured during shearing experiments. This simple model may be useful to identify failure events linked to force chain failures. Future generalizations of the model that include different types of fiber failure may also allow identification of different types of granular failures that have distinct statistical acoustic emission signatures.

High-mechanical-strength single-pulse draw tower gratings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothhardt, Manfred W.; Chojetzki, Christoph; Mueller, Hans Rainer

2004-11-01

The inscription of fiber Bragg gratings during the drawing process is a very useful method to realize sensor arrays with high numbers of gratings and excellent mechanical strength and also type II gratings with high temperature stability. Results of single pulse grating arrays with numbers up to 100 and definite wavelengths and positions for sensor applications were achieved at 1550 nm and 830 nm using new photosensitive fibers developed in IPHT. Single pulse type I gratings at 1550 nm with more than 30% reflectivity were shown first time to our knowledge. The mechanical strength of this fiber with an Ormocer coating with those single pulse gratings is the same like standard telecom fibers. Weibull plots of fiber tests will be shown. At 830 nm we reached more than 10% reflectivity with single pulse writing during the fiber drawing in photosensitive fibers with less than 16 dB/km transmission loss. These gratings are useful for stress and vibration sensing applications. Type II gratings with reflectivity near 100% and smooth spectral shape and spectral width of about 1 nm are temperature stable up to 1200 K for short time. They are also realized in the fiber drawing process. These gratings are useful for temperature sensor applications.

Realtime Reconstruction of an Animating Human Body from a Single Depth Camera.

PubMed

Chen, Yin; Cheng, Zhi-Quan; Lai, Chao; Martin, Ralph R; Dang, Gang

2016-08-01

We present a method for realtime reconstruction of an animating human body,which produces a sequence of deforming meshes representing a given performance captured by a single commodity depth camera. We achieve realtime single-view mesh completion by enhancing the parameterized SCAPE model.Our method, which we call Realtime SCAPE, performs full-body reconstruction without the use of markers.In Realtime SCAPE, estimations of body shape parameters and pose parameters, needed for reconstruction, are decoupled. Intrinsic body shape is first precomputed for a given subject, by determining shape parameters with the aid of a body shape database. Subsequently, per-frame pose parameter estimation is performed by means of linear blending skinning (LBS); the problem is decomposed into separately finding skinning weights and transformations. The skinning weights are also determined offline from the body shape database,reducing online reconstruction to simply finding the transformations in LBS. Doing so is formulated as a linear variational problem;carefully designed constraints are used to impose temporal coherence and alleviate artifacts. Experiments demonstrate that our method can produce full-body mesh sequences with high fidelity.

Effect of quench on alpha/beta pulse shape discrimination of liquid scintillation cocktails.

PubMed

DeVol, Timothy A; Theisen, Christopher D; DiPrete, David P

2007-05-01

The objectives of this paper are (1) to illustrate that knowledge of the external quench parameter is insufficient to properly setup a pulse shape discriminating liquid scintillation counter (LSC) for quantitative measurement, (2) to illustrate dependence on pulse shape discrimination on the radionuclide (more than just radiation and energy), and (3) to compare the pulse shape discrimination (PSD) of two commercial instruments. The effects various quenching agents, liquid scintillation cocktails, radionuclides, and LSCs have on alpha/beta pulse shape discriminating liquid scintillation counting were quantified. Alpha emitting radionuclides (239)Pu and (241)Am and beta emitter (90)Sr/(90)Y were investigated to quantify the nuclide dependence on alpha/beta pulse shape discrimination. Also, chemical and color quenching agents, nitromethane, nitric acid, and yellow dye impact on alpha/beta pulse shape discrimination using PerkinElmer Optiphase "HiSafe" 2 and 3, and Ultima Gold AB liquid scintillation cocktails were determined. The prepared samples were counted on the PerkinElmer Wallac WinSpectral 1414 alpha/beta pulse shape discriminating LSC. It was found that for the same level of quench, as measured by the external quench parameter, different quench agents influenced the pulse shape discrimination and the pulse shape discrimination parameters differently. The radionuclide also affects alpha/beta pulse shape discrimination. By comparison with the PerkinElmer Tri-carb 3150 TR/AB, the Wallac 1414 exhibited better pulse shape discrimination capability under the same experimental conditions.

Evaluation of the resistance to cyclic fatigue among ProTaper Next, ProTaper Universal, and Vortex Blue rotary instruments.

PubMed

Nguyen, Harrison H; Fong, Hanson; Paranjpe, Avina; Flake, Natasha M; Johnson, James D; Peters, Ove A

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the fracture resistance to cyclic fatigue of ProTaper Next (PTN; Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties, Tulsa, OK), ProTaper Universal (PTU, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties), and Vortex Blue (VB, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties) rotary instruments. Twenty instruments each of PTN X1-X5, PTU S1-F5, and VB 20/04-50/04 were rotated until fracture in a simulated canal of 90° and a 5-mm radius using a custom-made testing platform. The number of cycles to fracture (NCF) was calculated. Weibull analysis was used to predict the maximum number of cycles when 99% of the instrument samples survive. VB 20/04-30/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S1-F5 and PTN X1-X5. VB 35/04-45/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S2-F5 and PTN X2-X5. PTN X1 had higher NCF than PTU S1-F5. PTN X2 had higher NCF than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution predicted the highest number of cycles at which 99% of instruments survive to be 766 cycles for VB 25/04 and the lowest to be 50 cycles for PTU F2. Under the limitations of this study, VB 20/04-45/04 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTN X2-X5 and PTU S2-F5. PTN X1 and X2 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution appears to be a feasible and potentially clinically relevant model to predict resistance to cyclic fatigue. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. All rights reserved.

Influence of Endodontic Treatment and Retreatment on the Fatigue Failure Load, Numbers of Cycles for Failure, and Survival Rates of Human Canine Teeth.

PubMed

Missau, Taiane; De Carlo Bello, Mariana; Michelon, Carina; Mastella Lang, Pauline; Kalil Pereira, Gabriel; Baldissara, Paolo; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Souza Bier, Carlos Alexandre; Pivetta Rippe, Marília

2017-12-01

This study evaluated the effects of endodontic treatment and retreatment on the fatigue failure load, numbers of cycles for failure, and survival rates of canine teeth. Sixty extracted canine teeth, each with a single root canal, were selected and randomly divided into 4 groups (n = 15): untreated, teeth without endodontic intervention; prepared, teeth subjected only to rotary instrumentation; filled, teeth receiving complete endodontic treatment; and retreated, teeth retreated endodontically. After the different endodontic interventions, the specimens were subjected to fatigue testing by the stepwise method: 200 N (× 5000 load pulses), 300 N, 400 N, 500 N, 600 N, 800 N, and 900 N at a maximum of 30,000 load pulses each or the occurrence of fracture. Data from load to failure and numbers of cycles for fracture were recorded and subjected to Kaplan-Meier and Log Rank tests (P < .05), in addition to Weibull analysis. The fractures of the specimens were classified as repairable or catastrophic. The retreated, filled, and untreated groups presented statistically significantly higher fatigue failure loads and numbers of cycles for failure than did the prepared group. Weibull analysis showed no statistically significant difference among the treatments for characteristic load to failure and characteristic number of cycles for failure, although, for number of cycles, a higher Weibull modulus was observed in filled and retreated conditions. The predominant mode of failure was catastrophic. Teeth subjected to complete endodontic treatment and retreatment behaved similarly in terms of fatigue failure load and number of cycles to failure when compared with untreated teeth. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Mechanical Properties of Nuclear Graphite Using Subsize Specimens and Reusing Tested Specimens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ji Hyun, Yoon; Byun, Thak Sang; Strizak, Joe P

2011-01-01

The mechanical properties of NBG-18 nuclear grade graphite have been characterized using small specimen test techniques and statistical treatment on the test results. New fracture strength and toughness test techniques were developed to use subsize cylindrical specimens with glued heads and to reuse their broken halves. Three sets of subsize cylindrical specimens with the different diameters of 4 mm, 8 mm, and 12 mm were tested to obtain tensile fracture strength. The longer piece of the broken halves was cracked from side surfaces and tested under three-point bend loading to obtain fracture toughness. Both the strength and fracture toughness datamore » were analyzed using Weibull distribution models focusing on size effect. The mean fracture strength decreased from 22.9 MPa to 21.5 MPa as the diameter increased from 4 mm to 12 mm, and the mean strength of 15.9 mm diameter standard specimen, 20.9 MPa, was on the extended trend line. These fracture strength data indicate that in the given diameter range the size effect is not significant and much smaller than that predicted by the Weibull statistics-based model. Further, no noticeable size effect existed in the fracture toughness data, whose mean values were in a narrow range of 1.21 1.26 MPa. The Weibull moduli measured for fracture strength and fracture toughness datasets were around 10. It is therefore believed that the small or negligible size effect enables to use the subsize specimens and that the new fracture toughness test method to reuse the broken specimens to help minimize irradiation space and radioactive waste.« less

Modeling infection of spring onion by Puccinia allii in response to temperature and leaf wetness.

PubMed

Furuya, Hiromitsu; Takanashi, Hiroyuki; Fuji, Shin-Ichi; Nagai, Yoshio; Naito, Hideki

2009-08-01

The influence of temperature and leaf wetness duration on infection of spring onion (Japanese bunching onion) leaves by Puccinia allii was examined in controlled-environment experiments. Leaves of potted spring onion plants (Allium fistulosum cv. Yoshikura) were inoculated with urediniospores and exposed to 6.5, 10, 15, 22, or 27 h of wetness at 5, 10, 15, 20, or 25 degrees C. The lesion that developed increased in density with increasing wetness duration. Relative infection was modeled as a function of both temperature and wetness duration using the modified version of Weibull's cumulative distribution function (R(2) = 0.9369). Infection occurred between 6.5 and 27 h of leaf wetness duration at 10, 15, 20, and 25 degrees C and between 10 and 27 h at 5 degrees C, and increased rapidly between 6.5 and 15 h of wetness at 10, 15, and 20 degrees C. At 25 degrees C, few uredinia developed regardless of the wetness duration. Parameter H, one of eight parameters used in the equation and which controls the asymmetry in the response curve, varied markedly according to the temperature, so that the model could be improved by representing H as a function of wetness duration (R(2) = 0.9501).

Human actuarial aging increases faster when back ground death rates are lower: a consequence of differential heterogeneity?

PubMed Central

Hawkes, Kristen; Smith, Ken R.; Blevins, James K.

2014-01-01

Many analyses of human populations have found that age-specific mortality rates increase faster across most of adulthood when overall mortality levels decline. This contradicts the relationship often expected from Williams′ classic hypothesis about the effects of natural selection on the evolution of senescence. More likely, much of the within-species difference in actuarial aging is not due to variation in senescence, but to the strength of filters on the heterogeneity of frailty in older survivors. A challenge to this differential frailty hypothesis was recently posed by an analysis of life tables from historical European populations and traditional societies that reported variation in actuarial aging consistent with Williams′ hypothesis after all. To investigate the challenge, we reconsidered those cases and aging measures. Here we show that the discrepancy depends on Ricklefs′ aging rate measure,ω, which decreases as mortality levels drop because it is an index of mortality level itself, not the rate of increase in mortality with age. We also show unappreciated correspondence among the parameters of Gompertz–Makeham and Weibull survival models. Finally, we compare the relationships among mortality parameters of the traditional societies and the historical series, providing further suggestive evidence that differential heterogeneity has strong effects on actuarial aging. PMID:22220868

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis

PubMed Central

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed. PMID:26167524

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis.

PubMed

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

Accelerated fatigue testing of dentin-composite bond with continuously increasing load.

PubMed

Li, Kai; Guo, Jiawen; Li, Yuping; Heo, Young Cheul; Chen, Jihua; Xin, Haitao; Fok, Alex

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate an accelerated fatigue test method that used a continuously increasing load for testing the dentin-composite bond strength. Dentin-composite disks (ϕ5mm×2mm) made from bovine incisor roots were subjected to cyclic diametral compression with a continuously increasingly load amplitude. Two different load profiles, linear and nonlinear with respect to the number of cycles, were considered. The data were then analyzed by using a probabilistic failure model based on the Weakest-Link Theory and the classical stress-life function, before being transformed to simulate clinical data of direct restorations. All the experimental data could be well fitted with a 2-parameter Weibull function. However, a calibration was required for the effective stress amplitude to account for the difference between static and cyclic loading. Good agreement was then obtained between theory and experiments for both load profiles. The in vitro model also successfully simulated the clinical data. The method presented will allow tooth-composite interfacial fatigue parameters to be determined more efficiently. With suitable calibration, the in vitro model can also be used to assess composite systems in a more clinically relevant manner. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetics of Hydrothermal Inactivation of Endotoxins ▿

PubMed Central

Li, Lixiong; Wilbur, Chris L.; Mintz, Kathryn L.

2011-01-01

A kinetic model was established for the inactivation of endotoxins in water at temperatures ranging from 210°C to 270°C and a pressure of 6.2 × 106 Pa. Data were generated using a bench scale continuous-flow reactor system to process feed water spiked with endotoxin standard (Escherichia coli O113:H10). Product water samples were collected and quantified by the Limulus amebocyte lysate assay. At 250°C, 5-log endotoxin inactivation was achieved in about 1 s of exposure, followed by a lower inactivation rate. This non-log-linear pattern is similar to reported trends in microbial survival curves. Predictions and parameters of several non-log-linear models are presented. In the fast-reaction zone (3- to 5-log reduction), the Arrhenius rate constant fits well at temperatures ranging from 120°C to 250°C on the basis of data from this work and the literature. Both biphasic and modified Weibull models are comparable to account for both the high and low rates of inactivation in terms of prediction accuracy and the number of parameters used. A unified representation of thermal resistance curves for a 3-log reduction and a 3 D value associated with endotoxin inactivation and microbial survival, respectively, is presented. PMID:21193667

Synergistic Effects of Temperature, Oxidation and Multicracking Modes on Damage Evolution and Life Prediction of 2D Woven Ceramic-Matrix Composites under Tension-Tension Fatigue Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longbiao, Li

2017-08-01

In this paper, the synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation and multicracking modes on damage evolution and life prediction in 2D woven ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) have been investigated. The damage parameter of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy and the interface shear stress were used to monitor the damage evolution inside of CMCs. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fibers broken fraction was determined by combining the interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fibers statistical failure model at elevated temperature, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfy the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fibers fraction approaches to the critical value, the composite fatigue fractures. The evolution of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy, the interface shear stress and broken fibers fraction versus cycle number, and the fatigue life S-N curves of SiC/SiC at 1000, 1200 and 1300 °C in air and steam condition have been predicted. The synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation, fatigue peak stress, and multicracking modes on the evolution of interface shear stress and fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy versus cycle numbers curves have been analyzed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasouli, C.; Abbasi Davani, F., E-mail: fabbasidavani@gmail.com

A series of experiments and numerical calculations have been done on the Damavand tokamak for accurate determination of equilibrium parameters, such as the plasma boundary position and shape. For this work, the pickup coils of the Damavand tokamak were recalibrated and after that a plasma boundary shape identification code was developed for analyzing the experimental data, such as magnetic probes and coils currents data. The plasma boundary position, shape and other parameters are determined by the plasma shape identification code. A free-boundary equilibrium code was also generated for comparison with the plasma boundary shape identification results and determination of requiredmore » fields to obtain elongated plasma in the Damavand tokamak.« less

Determining the Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fainshtein, V. G.

2010-11-01

Observing halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) in the coronagraph field of view allows one to only determine the apparent parameters in the plane of the sky. Recently, several methods have been proposed allowing one to find some true geometrical and kinematical parameters of HCMEs. In most cases, a simple cone model was used to describe the CME shape. Observations show that various modifications of the cone model ("ice cream models") are most appropriate for describing the shapes of individual CMEs. This paper uses the method of determining full HCME parameters proposed by the author earlier, for determining the parameters of 45 full HCMEs, with various modifications of their shapes. I show that the determined CME characteristics depend significantly on the chosen CME shape. I conclude that the absence of criteria for a preliminary evaluation of the CME shape is a major source of error in determining the true parameters of a full HCME with any of the known methods. I show that, regardless of the chosen CME form, the trajectory of practically all the HCMEs in question deviate from the radial direction towards the Sun-Earth axis at the initial stage of their movement, and their angular size, on average, significantly exceeds that of all the observable CMEs.

Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo.

PubMed

Tojinbara, Kageaki; Sugiura, K; Yamada, A; Kakitani, I; Kwan, N C L; Sugiura, K

2016-01-01

Data of 98 rabies cases in dogs and cats from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo were used to estimate the probability distribution of the incubation period. Lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions were used to model the incubation period. The maximum likelihood estimates of the mean incubation period ranged from 27.30 to 28.56 days according to different distributions. The mean incubation period was shortest with the lognormal distribution (27.30 days), and longest with the Weibull distribution (28.56 days). The best distribution in terms of AIC value was the lognormal distribution with mean value of 27.30 (95% CI: 23.46-31.55) days and standard deviation of 20.20 (15.27-26.31) days. There were no significant differences between the incubation periods for dogs and cats, or between those for male and female dogs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Specimen Preparation and Specimen Size on Composite Transverse Tensile Strength and Scatter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OBrien, T. Kevin; Chawan, Arun D.; DeMarco, Kevin; Paris, Isabelle

2001-01-01

The influence of specimen polishing, configuration, and size on the transverse tension strength of two glass-epoxy materials, and one carbon-epoxy material, loaded in three and four point bending was evaluated. Polishing machined edges, arid/or tension side failure surfaces, was detrimental to specimen strength characterization instead of yielding a higher, more accurate, strength as a result of removing inherent manufacture and handling flaws. Transverse tension strength was typically lower for longer span lengths due to the classical weakest link effect. However, strength was less sensitive to volume changes achieved by increasing specimen width. The Weibull scaling law typically over-predicted changes in transverse tension strengths in three point bend tests and under-predicted changes in transverse tension strengths in four point bend tests. Furthermore, the Weibull slope varied with specimen configuration, volume, and sample size. Hence, this scaling law was not adequate for predicting transverse tension strength of heterogeneous, fiber-reinforced, polymer matrix composites.

A statistical analogy between collapse of solids and death of living organisms: proposal for a 'law of life'.

PubMed

Pugno, Nicola M

2007-01-01

In this paper we present a statistical analogy between the collapse of solids and living organisms; in particular we deduce a statistical law governing their probability of death. We have derived such a law coupling the widely used Weibull Statistics, developed for describing the distribution of the strength of solids, with a general model for ontogenetic growth recently proposed in literature. The main idea presented in this paper is that cracks can propagate in solids and cause their failure as sick cells in living organisms can cause their death. Making a rough analogy, living organisms are found to behave as "growing" mechanical components under cyclic, i.e., fatigue, loadings and composed by a dynamic evolutionary material that, as an ineluctable fate, deteriorates. The implications on biological scaling laws are discussed. As an example, we apply such a Dynamic Weibull Statistics to large data collections on human deaths due to cancer of various types recorded in Italy: a significant agreement is observed.

Effect of temperature on water diffusion during rehydration of sun-dried red pepper ( Capsicum annuum L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demiray, Engin; Tulek, Yahya

2017-05-01

Rehydration, which is a complex process aimed at the restoration of raw material properties when dried material comes in contact with water. In the present research, studies were conducted to probe the kinetics of rehydration of sun-dried red peppers. The kinetics associated with rehydrating sun-dried red peppers was studied at three different temperatures (25, 35 and 45 °C). To describe the rehydration kinetics, four different models, Peleg's, Weibull, first order and exponential association, were considered. Between these four models proposed Weibull model gave a better fit for all rehydration conditions applied. The effective moisture diffusivity values of red peppers increased as water rehydration temperature increased. The values of the effective moisture diffusivity of red peppers were in the range 1.37 × 10-9-1.48 × 10-9 m2 s-1. On the other hand, the activation energy for rehydration kinetic was also calculated using Arrhenius equation and found as 3.17 kJ mol-1.

A two-scale Weibull approach to the failure of porous ceramic structures made by robocasting: possibilities and limits

PubMed Central

Genet, Martin; Houmard, Manuel; Eslava, Salvador; Saiz, Eduardo; Tomsia, Antoni P.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces our approach to modeling the mechanical behavior of cellular ceramics, through the example of calcium phosphate scaffolds made by robocasting for bone-tissue engineering. The Weibull theory is used to deal with the scaffolds’ constitutive rods statistical failure, and the Sanchez-Palencia theory of periodic homogenization is used to link the rod- and scaffold-scales. Uniaxial compression of scaffolds and three-point bending of rods were performed to calibrate and validate the model. If calibration based on rod-scale data leads to over-conservative predictions of scaffold’s properties (as rods’ successive failures are not taken into account), we show that, for a given rod diameter, calibration based on scaffold-scale data leads to very satisfactory predictions for a wide range of rod spacing, i.e. of scaffold porosity, as well as for different loading conditions. This work establishes the proposed model as a reliable tool for understanding and optimizing cellular ceramics’ mechanical properties. PMID:23439936

Results of the Verification of the Statistical Distribution Model of Microseismicity Emission Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cianciara, Aleksander

2016-09-01

The paper presents the results of research aimed at verifying the hypothesis that the Weibull distribution is an appropriate statistical distribution model of microseismicity emission characteristics, namely: energy of phenomena and inter-event time. It is understood that the emission under consideration is induced by the natural rock mass fracturing. Because the recorded emission contain noise, therefore, it is subjected to an appropriate filtering. The study has been conducted using the method of statistical verification of null hypothesis that the Weibull distribution fits the empirical cumulative distribution function. As the model describing the cumulative distribution function is given in an analytical form, its verification may be performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Interpretations by means of probabilistic methods require specifying the correct model describing the statistical distribution of data. Because in these methods measurement data are not used directly, but their statistical distributions, e.g., in the method based on the hazard analysis, or in that that uses maximum value statistics.

Application of a Probalistic Sizing Methodology for Ceramic Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rancurel, Michael; Behar-Lafenetre, Stephanie; Cornillon, Laurence; Leroy, Francois-Henri; Coe, Graham; Laine, Benoit

2012-07-01

Ceramics are increasingly used in the space industry to take advantage of their stability and high specific stiffness properties. Their brittle behaviour often leads to size them by increasing the safety factors that are applied on the maximum stresses. It induces to oversize the structures. This is inconsistent with the major driver in space architecture, the mass criteria. This paper presents a methodology to size ceramic structures based on their failure probability. Thanks to failure tests on samples, the Weibull law which characterizes the strength distribution of the material is obtained. A-value (Q0.0195%) and B-value (Q0.195%) are then assessed to take into account the limited number of samples. A knocked-down Weibull law that interpolates the A- & B- values is also obtained. Thanks to these two laws, a most-likely and a knocked- down prediction of failure probability are computed for complex ceramic structures. The application of this methodology and its validation by test is reported in the paper.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

2000-01-01

Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.