The influence of micropore size on the mechanical properties of bulk hydroxyapatite and hydroxyapatite scaffolds.

PubMed

Cordell, Jacqueline M; Vogl, Michelle L; Wagoner Johnson, Amy J

2009-10-01

While recognized as a promising bone substitute material, hydroxyapatite (HA) has had limited use in clinical settings because of its inherent brittle behavior. It is well established that macropores ( approximately 100 microm) in a HA implant, or scaffold, are required for bone ingrowth, but recent research has shown that ingrowth is enhanced when scaffolds also contain microporosity. HA is sensitive to synthesis and processing parameters and therefore characterization for specific applications is necessary for transition to the clinic. To that end, the mechanical behavior of bulk microporous HA and HA scaffolds with multi-scale porosity (macropores between rods in the range of 250-350 microm and micropores within the rods with average size of either 5.96 microm or 16.2 microm) was investigated in order to determine how strength and reliability were affected by micropore size (5.96 microm versus 16.2 microm). For the bulk microporous HA, strength increased with decreasing micropore size in both bending (19 MPa to 22 MPa) and compression (71 MPa to 110 MPa). To determine strength reliability, the Weibull moduli for the bulk microporous HA were determined. The Weibull moduli for bending increased (became more reliable) with decreasing pore size (7 to 10) while the Weibull moduli for compression decreased (became less reliable) with decreasing pore size (9 to 6). Furthermore, the elastic properties of the bulk microporous HA (elastic modulus of 30 GPa) and the compressive strengths of the HA scaffolds with multi-scale porosity (8 MPa) did not vary with pore size. The mechanisms responsible for the trends observed were discussed.

Average BER of subcarrier intensity modulated free space optical systems over the exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Zhang, Lu; Guo, Lixin; Huang, Feng; Shang, Tao; Wang, Ranran; Yang, Yintang

2014-08-25

The average bit error rate (BER) for binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation in free-space optical (FSO) links over turbulence atmosphere modeled by the exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution is investigated in detail. The effects of aperture averaging on the average BERs for BPSK modulation under weak-to-strong turbulence conditions are studied. The average BERs of EW distribution are compared with Lognormal (LN) and Gamma-Gamma (GG) distributions in weak and strong turbulence atmosphere, respectively. The outage probability is also obtained for different turbulence strengths and receiver aperture sizes. The analytical results deduced by the generalized Gauss-Laguerre quadrature rule are verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. This work is helpful for the design of receivers for FSO communication systems.

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Effect of grinding with diamond-disc and -bur on the mechanical behavior of a Y-TZP ceramic.

PubMed

Pereira, G K R; Amaral, M; Simoneti, R; Rocha, G C; Cesar, P F; Valandro, L F

2014-09-01

This study compared the effects of grinding on the surface micromorphology, phase transformation (t→m), biaxial flexural strength and structural reliability (Weibull analysis) of a Y-TZP (Lava) ceramic using diamond-discs and -burs. 170 discs (15×1.2mm) were produced and divided into 5 groups: without treatment (Ctrl, as-sintered), and ground with 4 different systems: extra-fine (25µm, Xfine) and coarse diamond-bur (181µm, Coarse), 600-grit (25µm, D600) and 120-grit diamond-disc (160µm, D120). Grinding with burs was performed using a contra-angle handpiece (T2-Revo R170, Sirona), while for discs (Allied) a Polishing Machine (Ecomet, Buehler) was employed, both under water-cooling. Micromorphological analysis showed distinct patterns generated by grinding with discs and burs, independent of grit size. There was no statistical difference for characteristic strength values (MPa) between smaller grit sizes (D600 - 1050.08 and Xfine - 1171.33), although they presented higher values compared to Ctrl (917.58). For bigger grit sizes, a significant difference was observed (Coarse - 1136.32>D120 - 727.47). Weibull Modules were statistically similar between the tested groups. Within the limits of this study, from a micromorphological point-of-view, the treatments performed did not generate similar effects, so from a methodological point-of-view, diamond-discs should not be employed to simulate clinical abrasion performed with diamond-burs on Y-TZP ceramics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A log-Weibull spatial scan statistic for time to event data.

PubMed

Usman, Iram; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

2018-06-13

Spatial scan statistics have been used for the identification of geographic clusters of elevated numbers of cases of a condition such as disease outbreaks. These statistics accompanied by the appropriate distribution can also identify geographic areas with either longer or shorter time to events. Other authors have proposed the spatial scan statistics based on the exponential and Weibull distributions. We propose the log-Weibull as an alternative distribution for the spatial scan statistic for time to events data and compare and contrast the log-Weibull and Weibull distributions through simulation studies. The effect of type I differential censoring and power have been investigated through simulated data. Methods are also illustrated on time to specialist visit data for discharged patients presenting to emergency departments for atrial fibrillation and flutter in Alberta during 2010-2011. We found northern regions of Alberta had longer times to specialist visit than other areas. We proposed the spatial scan statistic for the log-Weibull distribution as a new approach for detecting spatial clusters for time to event data. The simulation studies suggest that the test performs well for log-Weibull data.

The Effect of Roughness Model on Scattering Properties of Ice Crystals.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan

2016-01-01

We compare stochastic models of microscale surface roughness assuming uniform and Weibull distributions of crystal facet tilt angles to calculate scattering by roughened hexagonal ice crystals using the geometric optics (GO) approximation. Both distributions are determined by similar roughness parameters, while the Weibull model depends on the additional shape parameter. Calculations were performed for two visible wavelengths (864 nm and 410 nm) for roughness values between 0.2 and 0.7 and Weibull shape parameters between 0 and 1.0 for crystals with aspect ratios of 0.21, 1 and 4.8. For this range of parameters we find that, for a given roughness level, varying the Weibull shape parameter can change the asymmetry parameter by up to about 0.05. The largest effect of the shape parameter variation on the phase function is found in the backscattering region, while the degree of linear polarization is most affected at the side-scattering angles. For high roughness, scattering properties calculated using the uniform and Weibull models are in relatively close agreement for a given roughness parameter, especially when a Weibull shape parameter of 0.75 is used. For smaller roughness values, a shape parameter close to unity provides a better agreement. Notable differences are observed in the phase function over the scattering angle range from 5deg to 20deg, where the uniform roughness model produces a plateau while the Weibull model does not.

Dynamic fatigue of a machinable glass-ceramic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, K. K.; Magida, M. B.

1982-01-01

To assess the stress corrosion susceptibility of a machinable glass-ceramic, its dynamic fatigue behavior was investigated by measuring its strength as a function of stress rate. Fracture mechanics techniques were used to analyse the results for the purpose of making lifetime predictions for components of this material. This material was concluded to have only moderate resistance to stress in ambient conditions. The effects of specimen size on strength were assessed for the material used in this study: it was concluded that the Weibull edge-flaw scaling law adequately describes the observed strength-size relationship.

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

Moment and maximum likelihood estimators for Weibull distributions under length- and area-biased sampling

Treesearch

Jeffrey H. Gove

2003-01-01

Many of the most popular sampling schemes used in forestry are probability proportional to size methods. These methods are also referred to as size biased because sampling is actually from a weighted form of the underlying population distribution. Length- and area-biased sampling are special cases of size-biased sampling where the probability weighting comes from a...

Dynamic fatigue of a machinable glass-ceramic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, K. K.; Magida, M. B.

1983-01-01

To assess the stress-corrosion susceptibility of a machinable glass-ceramic, its dynamic fatigue behavior was investigated by measuring its strength as a function of stress rate. Fracture mechanics techniques were used to analyze the results for the purpose of making lifetime predictions for components of this material. This material was concluded to have only moderate resistance (N = 30) to stress corrosion in ambient conditions. The effects of specimen size on strength were assessed for the material used in this study; it was concluded that the Weibull edge-flaw scaling law adequately describes the observed strength-size relation.

Determination of the Mechanical Properties of Plasma-Sprayed Hydroxyapatite Coatings Using the Knoop Indentation Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Fahad; Wang, James; Berndt, Christopher

2015-06-01

The microhardness and elastic modulus of plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite coatings were evaluated using Knoop indentation on the cross section and on the top surface. The effects of indentation angle, testing direction, measurement location and applied load on the microhardness and elastic modulus were investigated. The variability and distribution of the microhardness and elastic modulus data were statistically analysed using the Weibull modulus distribution. The results indicate that the dependence of microhardness and elastic modulus on the indentation angle exhibits a parabolic shape. Dependence of the microhardness values on the indentation angle follows Pythagoras's theorem. The microhardness, Weibull modulus of microhardness and Weibull modulus of elastic modulus reach their maximum at the central position (175 µm) on the cross section of the coatings. The Weibull modulus of microhardness revealed similar values throughout the thickness, and the Weibull modulus of elastic modulus shows higher values on the top surface compared to the cross section.

Application of a Probalistic Sizing Methodology for Ceramic Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rancurel, Michael; Behar-Lafenetre, Stephanie; Cornillon, Laurence; Leroy, Francois-Henri; Coe, Graham; Laine, Benoit

2012-07-01

Ceramics are increasingly used in the space industry to take advantage of their stability and high specific stiffness properties. Their brittle behaviour often leads to size them by increasing the safety factors that are applied on the maximum stresses. It induces to oversize the structures. This is inconsistent with the major driver in space architecture, the mass criteria. This paper presents a methodology to size ceramic structures based on their failure probability. Thanks to failure tests on samples, the Weibull law which characterizes the strength distribution of the material is obtained. A-value (Q0.0195%) and B-value (Q0.195%) are then assessed to take into account the limited number of samples. A knocked-down Weibull law that interpolates the A- & B- values is also obtained. Thanks to these two laws, a most-likely and a knocked- down prediction of failure probability are computed for complex ceramic structures. The application of this methodology and its validation by test is reported in the paper.

On the performance evaluation of LQAM-MPPM techniques over exponentiated Weibull fading free-space optical channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khallaf, Haitham S.; Elfiqi, Abdulaziz E.; Shalaby, Hossam M. H.; Sampei, Seiichi; Obayya, Salah S. A.

2018-06-01

We investigate the performance of hybrid L-ary quadrature-amplitude modulation-multi-pulse pulse-position modulation (LQAM-MPPM) techniques over exponentiated Weibull (EW) fading free-space optical (FSO) channel, considering both weather and pointing-error effects. Upper bound and approximate-tight upper bound expressions for the bit-error rate (BER) of LQAM-MPPM techniques over EW FSO channels are obtained, taking into account the effects of fog, beam divergence, and pointing-error. Setup block diagram for both the transmitter and receiver of the LQAM-MPPM/FSO system are introduced and illustrated. The BER expressions are evaluated numerically and the results reveal that LQAM-MPPM technique outperforms ordinary LQAM and MPPM schemes under different fading levels and weather conditions. Furthermore, the effect of modulation-index is investigated and it turned out that a modulation-index greater than 0.4 is required in order to optimize the system performance. Finally, the effect of pointing-error introduces a great power penalty on the LQAM-MPPM system performance. Specifically, at a BER of 10-9, pointing-error introduces power penalties of about 45 and 28 dB for receiver aperture sizes of DR = 50 and 200 mm, respectively.

DEM Particle Fracture Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Boning; Herbold, Eric B.; Homel, Michael A.

2015-12-01

An adaptive particle fracture model in poly-ellipsoidal Discrete Element Method is developed. The poly-ellipsoidal particle will break into several sub-poly-ellipsoids by Hoek-Brown fracture criterion based on continuum stress and the maximum tensile stress in contacts. Also Weibull theory is introduced to consider the statistics and size effects on particle strength. Finally, high strain-rate split Hopkinson pressure bar experiment of silica sand is simulated using this newly developed model. Comparisons with experiments show that our particle fracture model can capture the mechanical behavior of this experiment very well, both in stress-strain response and particle size redistribution. The effects of density andmore » packings o the samples are also studied in numerical examples.« less

Inactivation of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris ATCC 49025 spores in apple juice by pulsed light. Influence of initial contamination and required reduction levels.

PubMed

Ferrario, Mariana I; Guerrero, Sandra N

The purpose of this study was to analyze the response of different initial contamination levels of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris ATCC 49025 spores in apple juice as affected by pulsed light treatment (PL, batch mode, xenon lamp, 3pulses/s, 0-71.6J/cm 2 ). Biphasic and Weibull frequency distribution models were used to characterize the relationship between inoculum size and treatment time with the reductions achieved after PL exposure. Additionally, a second order polynomial model was computed to relate required PL processing time to inoculum size and requested log reductions. PL treatment caused up to 3.0-3.5 log reductions, depending on the initial inoculum size. Inactivation curves corresponding to PL-treated samples were adequately characterized by both Weibull and biphasic models (R adj 2 94-96%), and revealed that lower initial inoculum sizes were associated with higher inactivation rates. According to the polynomial model, the predicted time for PL treatment increased exponentially with inoculum size. Copyright © 2017 Asociación Argentina de Microbiología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A reappraisal of drug release laws using Monte Carlo simulations: the prevalence of the Weibull function.

PubMed

Kosmidis, Kosmas; Argyrakis, Panos; Macheras, Panos

2003-07-01

To verify the Higuchi law and study the drug release from cylindrical and spherical matrices by means of Monte Carlo computer simulation. A one-dimensional matrix, based on the theoretical assumptions of the derivation of the Higuchi law, was simulated and its time evolution was monitored. Cylindrical and spherical three-dimensional lattices were simulated with sites at the boundary of the lattice having been denoted as leak sites. Particles were allowed to move inside it using the random walk model. Excluded volume interactions between the particles was assumed. We have monitored the system time evolution for different lattice sizes and different initial particle concentrations. The Higuchi law was verified using the Monte Carlo technique in a one-dimensional lattice. It was found that Fickian drug release from cylindrical matrices can be approximated nicely with the Weibull function. A simple linear relation between the Weibull function parameters and the specific surface of the system was found. Drug release from a matrix, as a result of a diffusion process assuming excluded volume interactions between the drug molecules, can be described using a Weibull function. This model, although approximate and semiempirical, has the benefit of providing a simple physical connection between the model parameters and the system geometry, which was something missing from other semiempirical models.

Inactivation kinetics of various chemical disinfectants on Aeromonas hydrophila planktonic cells and biofilms.

PubMed

Jahid, Iqbal Kabir; Ha, Sang-Do

2014-05-01

The present article focuses on the inactivation kinetics of various disinfectants including ethanol, sodium hypochlorite, hydrogen peroxide, peracetic acid, and benzalkonium chloride against Aeromonas hydrophila biofilms and planktonic cells. Efficacy was determined by viable plate count and compared using a modified Weibull model. The removal of the biofilms matrix was determined by the crystal violet assay and was confirmed by field-emission scanning electron microscope. The results revealed that all the experimental data and calculated Weibull α (scale) and β (shape) parameters had a good fit, as the R(2) values were between 0.88 and 0.99. Biofilms are more resistant to disinfectants than planktonic cells. Ethanol (70%) was the most effective in killing cells in the biofilms and significantly reduced (p<0.05) the biofilms matrix. The Weibull parameter b-value correlated (R(2)=0.6835) with the biofilms matrix removal. The present findings deduce that the Weibull model is suitable to determine biofilms matrix reduction as well as the effectiveness of chemical disinfectants on biofilms. The study showed that the Weibull model could successfully be used on food and food contact surfaces to determine the exact contact time for killing biofilms-forming foodborne pathogens.

Effective Size Analysis of the Diametral Compression (Brazil) Test Specimen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadaan, Osama M.; Wereszczak, Andrew A

2009-04-01

This study considers the finite element analysis (FEA) simulation and Weibull effective size analysis for the diametral compression (DC) or Brazil specimen loaded with three different push-rod geometries. Those geometries are a flat push-rod, a push-rod whose radius of curvature is larger than that for the DC specimen, and a push-rod whose radius of curvature matches that of the DC specimen. Such established effective size analysis recognizes that the tensile strength of structural ceramics is typically one to two orders of magnitude less than its compressive strength. Therefore, because fracture is much more apt to result from a tensile stressmore » than a compressive one, this traditional analysis only considers the first principal tensile stress field in the mechanically loaded ceramic component for the effective size analysis. The effective areas and effective volumes were computed as function of Weibull modulus using the CARES/Life code. Particular attention was devoted to the effect of mesh sensitivity and localized stress concentration. The effect of specimen width on the stress state was also investigated. The effects of push-rod geometry, the use of steel versus WC push-rods, and considering a frictionless versus no-slip interface between push-rod and specimen on the maximum stresses, where those stresses are located, and the effective area and effective volume results are described. Of the three push-rod geometries, it is concluded that the push-rod (made from WC rather than steel) whose radius of curvature matches that of the DC specimen is the most apt to cause fracture initiation within the specimen's bulk rather than at the loading interface. Therefore, its geometry is the most likely to produce a valid diametral compression strength test. However, the DC specimen remains inefficient in terms of its area and volume efficiencies; namely, the tensile strength of only a few percent of the specimen's entire area or volume is sampled. Given the high probability that a valid (or invalid) test can be proven by ceramic fractographic practices suggests that this test method and specimen is questionable for use with relatively strong structural ceramics.« less

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2008-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2012-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Gravitational Effects on Closed-Cellular-Foam Microstructure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noever, David A.; Cronise, Raymond J.; Wessling, Francis C.; McMannus, Samuel P.; Mathews, John; Patel, Darayas

1996-01-01

Polyurethane foam has been produced in low gravity for the first time. The cause and distribution of different void or pore sizes are elucidated from direct comparison of unit-gravity and low-gravity samples. Low gravity is found to increase the pore roundness by 17% and reduce the void size by 50%. The standard deviation for pores becomes narrower (a more homogeneous foam is produced) in low gravity. Both a Gaussian and a Weibull model fail to describe the statistical distribution of void areas, and hence the governing dynamics do not combine small voids in either a uniform or a dependent fashion to make larger voids. Instead, the void areas follow an exponential law, which effectively randomizes the production of void sizes in a nondependent fashion consistent more with single nucleation than with multiple or combining events.

The impact of vessel size on vulnerability curves: data and models for within-species variability in saplings of aspen, Populus tremuloides Michx.

PubMed

Cai, Jing; Tyree, Melvin T

2010-07-01

The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between vulnerability to cavitation and vessel diameter within a species. We measured vulnerability curves (VCs: percentage loss hydraulic conductivity versus tension) in aspen stems and measured vessel-size distributions. Measurements were done on seed-grown, 4-month-old aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) grown in a greenhouse. VCs of stem segments were measured using a centrifuge technique and by a staining technique that allowed a VC to be constructed based on vessel diameter size-classes (D). Vessel-based VCs were also fitted to Weibull cumulative distribution functions (CDF), which provided best-fit values of Weibull CDF constants (c and b) and P(50) = the tension causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity. We show that P(50) = 6.166D(-0.3134) (R(2) = 0.995) and that b and 1/c are both linear functions of D with R(2) > 0.95. The results are discussed in terms of models of VCs based on vessel D size-classes and in terms of concepts such as the 'pit area hypothesis' and vessel pathway redundancy.

Mechanics-based statistics of failure risk of quasibrittle structures and size effect on safety factors.

PubMed

Bazant, Zdenĕk P; Pang, Sze-Dai

2006-06-20

In mechanical design as well as protection from various natural hazards, one must ensure an extremely low failure probability such as 10(-6). How to achieve that goal is adequately understood only for the limiting cases of brittle or ductile structures. Here we present a theory to do that for the transitional class of quasibrittle structures, having brittle constituents and characterized by nonnegligible size of material inhomogeneities. We show that the probability distribution of strength of the representative volume element of material is governed by the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution of atomic energies and the stress dependence of activation energy barriers; that it is statistically modeled by a hierarchy of series and parallel couplings; and that it consists of a broad Gaussian core having a grafted far-left power-law tail with zero threshold and amplitude depending on temperature and load duration. With increasing structure size, the Gaussian core shrinks and Weibull tail expands according to the weakest-link model for a finite chain of representative volume elements. The model captures experimentally observed deviations of the strength distribution from Weibull distribution and of the mean strength scaling law from a power law. These deviations can be exploited for verification and calibration. The proposed theory will increase the safety of concrete structures, composite parts of aircraft or ships, microelectronic components, microelectromechanical systems, prosthetic devices, etc. It also will improve protection against hazards such as landslides, avalanches, ice breaks, and rock or soil failures.

USE OF WEIBULL FUNCTION FOR NON-LINEAR ANALYSIS OF EFFECTS OF LOW LEVELS OF SIMULATED HERBICIDE DRIFT ON PLANTS

EPA Science Inventory

We compared two regression models, which are based on the Weibull and probit functions, for the analysis of pesticide toxicity data from laboratory studies on Illinois crop and native plant species. Both mathematical models are continuous, differentiable, strictly positive, and...

Reliability Estimation of Aero-engine Based on Mixed Weibull Distribution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Zhongda; Deng, Junxiang; Wang, Dawei

2018-02-01

Aero-engine is a complex mechanical electronic system, based on analysis of reliability of mechanical electronic system, Weibull distribution model has an irreplaceable role. Till now, only two-parameter Weibull distribution model and three-parameter Weibull distribution are widely used. Due to diversity of engine failure modes, there is a big error with single Weibull distribution model. By contrast, a variety of engine failure modes can be taken into account with mixed Weibull distribution model, so it is a good statistical analysis model. Except the concept of dynamic weight coefficient, in order to make reliability estimation result more accurately, three-parameter correlation coefficient optimization method is applied to enhance Weibull distribution model, thus precision of mixed distribution reliability model is improved greatly. All of these are advantageous to popularize Weibull distribution model in engineering applications.

Effect of grain growth of [beta]-silicon nitride on strength, Weibull modulus, and fracture toughness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirosaki, Naota; Akimune, Yoshio; Mitomo, Mamoru

1993-07-01

[beta]-Si[sub 3]N[sub 4] powder containing 1 mol% of equimolar Y[sub 2]O[sub 3]-Nd[sub 2]O[sub 3] was gas-pressure sintered at 2,000C for 2 h (SN2), 4 h (SN4), and 8 h (SN8) in 30-MPa nitrogen gas. These materials had a microstructure of in-situ composites'' as a result of exaggerated grain growth of some [beta]-Si[sub 3]N[sub 4] grains during firing. Growth of elongated grains was controlled by the sintering time, so that the desired microstructures were obtained. SN2 had a Weibull modulus as high as 53 because of the uniform size and spatial distribution of its large grains. SN4 had a fracture toughnessmore » of 10.3 MPa[center dot]m[sup 1/2] because of toughening provided by the bridging of elongated grains, whereas SN8 showed a lower fracture toughness, possibly caused by extensive microcracking resulting from excessively large grains. Gas-pressure sintering of [beta]-Si[sub 3]N[sub 4] powder was shown to be effective in fostering selective grain growth for obtaining the desired composite microstructure.« less

Mechanical behavior of a Y-TZP ceramic for monolithic restorations: effect of grinding and low-temperature aging.

PubMed

Pereira, G K R; Silvestri, T; Camargo, R; Rippe, M P; Amaral, M; Kleverlaan, C J; Valandro, L F

2016-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of grinding with diamond burs and low-temperature aging on the mechanical behavior (biaxial flexural strength and structural reliability), surface topography, and phase transformation of a Y-TZP ceramic for monolithic dental restorations. Disc-shaped specimens (Zirlux FC, Ivoclar Vivadent) were manufactured according to ISO 6872 (2008) and divided in accordance with two factors: "grinding - 3 levels" and "LTD - 2 levels". Grinding was performed using a contra-angle handpiece under constant water-cooling with different grit-sizes (extra-fine and coarse diamond burs). LTD was simulated in an autoclave at 134°C, under a pressure of 2 bar, over a period of 20h. Surface topography analysis showed an increase in roughness based on surface treatment grit-size (Coarse>Xfine>Ctrl), LTD did not influence roughness values. Both grinding and LTD promoted an increase in the amount of m-phase, although different susceptibilities to degradation were observed. According to existing literature the increase of m-phase content is a direct indicative of Y-TZP degradation. Weibull analysis showed an increase in characteristic strength after grinding (Coarse=Xfine>Ctrl), while for LTD, distinct effects were observed (Ctrl

Weibull Analysis and Area Scaling for Infrared Window Materials (U)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

the strength of a window scales inversely with the size of the window. This report was reviewed for technical accuracy by Howard Poisl, Thomas M...strength of a window scales inversely with the size of the window. Test data are given for aluminum oxynitride (ALON), calcium fluoride, chemical vapor...failure of an optical window in the absence of slow crack growth. This report illustrates how the strength of a window scales inversely with the size of

Effect of the microstructure on the lifetime of dental ceramics.

PubMed

Borba, Márcia; de Araújo, Maico D; Fukushima, Karen A; Yoshimura, Humberto N; Cesar, Paulo F; Griggs, Jason A; Della Bona, Alvaro

2011-07-01

To evaluate the effect of the microstructure on the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters and on the lifetime of three ceramics used as framework materials for fixed partial dentures (FPDs) (YZ - Vita In-Ceram YZ; IZ - Vita In-Ceram Zirconia; AL - Vita In-Ceram AL) and of two veneering porcelains (VM7 and VM9). Bar-shaped specimens were fabricated according to the manufacturer's instructions. Specimens were tested in three-point flexure in 37°C artificial saliva. Weibull analysis (n=30) and a constant stress-rate test (n=10) were used to determine the Weibull modulus (m) and SCG coefficient (n), respectively. Microstructural and fractographic analyzes were performed using SEM. ANOVA and Tukey's test (α=0.05) were used to statistically analyze data obtained with both microstructural and fractographic analyzes. YZ and AL presented high crystalline content and low porosity (0.1-0.2%). YZ had the highest characteristic strength (σ(0)) value (911MPa) followed by AL (488MPa) and IZ (423MPa). Lower σ(0) values were observed for the porcelains (68-75MPa). Except for IZ and VM7, m values were similar among the ceramic materials. Higher n values were found for YZ (76) and AL (72), followed by IZ (54) and the veneering materials (36-44). Lifetime predictions showed that YZ was the material with the best mechanical performance. The size of the critical flaw was similar among the framework materials (34-48μm) and among the porcelains (75-86μm). The microstructure influenced the mechanical and SCG behavior of the studied materials and, consequently, the lifetime predictions. Copyright © 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scale effects in the response and failure of fiber reinforced composite laminates loaded in tension and in flexure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Karen E.; Kellas, Sotiris; Morton, John

1992-01-01

The feasibility of using scale model testing for predicting the full-scale behavior of flat composite coupons loaded in tension and beam-columns loaded in flexure is examined. Classical laws of similitude are applied to fabricate and test replica model specimens to identify scaling effects in the load response, strength, and mode of failure. Experiments were performed on graphite-epoxy composite specimens having different laminate stacking sequences and a range of scaled sizes. From the experiments it was deduced that the elastic response of scaled composite specimens was independent of size. However, a significant scale effect in strength was observed. In addition, a transition in failure mode was observed among scaled specimens of certain laminate stacking sequences. A Weibull statistical model and a fracture mechanics based model were applied to predict the strength scale effect since standard failure criteria cannot account for the influence of absolute specimen size on strength.

Two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podeang, Krittaya; Bodhisuwan, Winai

2017-11-01

In this paper, we introduce a general class of lifetime distributions, called the two-sided Topp-Leone generated family of distribution. A special case of new family is the two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution. This distribution used the two-sided Topp-Leone distribution as a generator for the Weibull distribution. The two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution is presented in several shapes of distributions such as decreasing, unimodal, and bimodal which make this distribution more than flexible than the Weibull distribution. Its quantile function is presented. The parameter estimation method by using maximum likelihood estimation is discussed. The proposed distribution is applied to the strength data set, remission times of bladder cancer patients data set and time to failure of turbocharger data set. We compare the proposed distribution to the Topp-Leone Generated Weibull distribution. In conclusion, the two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution performs similarly as the Topp-Leone Generated Weibull distribution in the first and second data sets. However, the proposed distribution can perform better than fit to Topp-Leone Generated Weibull distribution for the other.

Weibull Modulus Estimated by the Non-linear Least Squares Method: A Solution to Deviation Occurring in Traditional Weibull Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Griffiths, W. D.; Chen, J.

2017-11-01

The Maximum Likelihood method and the Linear Least Squares (LLS) method have been widely used to estimate Weibull parameters for reliability of brittle and metal materials. In the last 30 years, many researchers focused on the bias of Weibull modulus estimation, and some improvements have been achieved, especially in the case of the LLS method. However, there is a shortcoming in these methods for a specific type of data, where the lower tail deviates dramatically from the well-known linear fit in a classic LLS Weibull analysis. This deviation can be commonly found from the measured properties of materials, and previous applications of the LLS method on this kind of dataset present an unreliable linear regression. This deviation was previously thought to be due to physical flaws ( i.e., defects) contained in materials. However, this paper demonstrates that this deviation can also be caused by the linear transformation of the Weibull function, occurring in the traditional LLS method. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to carry out a Weibull analysis according to the linearized Weibull function, and the Non-linear Least Squares method (Non-LS) is instead recommended for the Weibull modulus estimation of casting properties.

Weibull Multiplicative Model and Machine Learning Models for Full-Automatic Dark-Spot Detection from SAR Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taravat, A.; Del Frate, F.

2013-09-01

As a major aspect of marine pollution, oil release into the sea has serious biological and environmental impacts. Among remote sensing systems (which is a tool that offers a non-destructive investigation method), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can provide valuable synoptic information about the position and size of the oil spill due to its wide area coverage and day/night, and all-weather capabilities. In this paper we present a new automated method for oil-spill monitoring. A new approach is based on the combination of Weibull Multiplicative Model and machine learning techniques to differentiate between dark spots and the background. First, the filter created based on Weibull Multiplicative Model is applied to each sub-image. Second, the sub-image is segmented by two different neural networks techniques (Pulsed Coupled Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks). As the last step, a very simple filtering process is used to eliminate the false targets. The proposed approaches were tested on 20 ENVISAT and ERS2 images which contained dark spots. The same parameters were used in all tests. For the overall dataset, the average accuracies of 94.05 % and 95.20 % were obtained for PCNN and MLP methods, respectively. The average computational time for dark-spot detection with a 256 × 256 image in about 4 s for PCNN segmentation using IDL software which is the fastest one in this field at present. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very fast, robust and effective. The proposed approach can be applied to the future spaceborne SAR images.

HPC simulations of grain-scale spallation to improve thermal spallation drilling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, S. D.; Lomov, I.; Wideman, T. W.; Potter, J.

2012-12-01

Thermal spallation drilling and related hard-rock hole opening techniques are transformative technologies with the potential to dramatically reduce the costs associated with EGS well drilling and improve the productivity of new and existing wells. In contrast to conventional drilling methods that employ mechanical means to penetrate rock, thermal spallation methods fragment rock into small pieces ("spalls") without contact via the rapid transmission of heat to the rock surface. State-of-the-art constitutive models of thermal spallation employ Weibull statistical failure theory to represent the relationship between rock heterogeneity and its propensity to produce spalls when heat is applied to the rock surface. These models have been successfully used to predict such factors as penetration rate, spall-size distribution and borehole radius from drilling jet velocity and applied heat flux. A properly calibrated Weibull model would permit design optimization of thermal spallation drilling under geothermal field conditions. However, although useful for predicting system response in a given context, Weibull models are by their nature empirically derived. In the past, the parameters used in these models were carefully determined from laboratory tests, and thus model applicability was limited by experimental scope. This becomes problematic, for example, if simulating spall production at depths relevant for geothermal energy production, or modeling thermal spallation drilling in new rock types. Nevertheless, with sufficient computational resources, Weibull models could be validated in the absence of experimental data by explicit small-scale simulations that fully resolve rock grains. This presentation will discuss how high-fidelity simulations can be used to inform Weibull models of thermal spallation, and what these simulations reveal about the processes driving spallation at the grain-scale - in particular, the role that inter-grain boundaries and micro-pores play in the onset and extent of spallation. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1987-01-01

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

New methods for estimating parameters of weibull functions to characterize future diameter distributions in forest stands

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

2006-01-01

Diameter distributions in a forest stand have been successfully characterized by use of the Weibull function. Of special interest are cases where parameters of a Weibull distribution that models a future stand are predicted, either directly or indirectly, from current stand density and dominant height. This study evaluated four methods of predicting the Weibull...

Effects of Planetary Gear Ratio on Mean Service Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Rubadeux, K. L.; Coe, H. H.

1996-01-01

Planetary gear transmissions are compact, high-power speed reductions which use parallel load paths. The range of possible reduction ratios is bounded from below and above by limits on the relative size of the planet gears. For a single plane transmission, the planet gear has no size at a ratio of two. As the ratio increases, so does the size of the planets relative to the sizes of the sun and ring. Which ratio is best for a planetary reduction can be resolved by studying a series of optimal designs. In this series, each design is obtained by maximizing the service life for a planetary with a fixed size, gear ratio, input speed power and materials. The planetary gear reduction service life is modeled as a function of the two-parameter Weibull distributed service lives of the bearings and gears in the reduction. Planet bearing life strongly influences the optimal reduction lives which point to an optimal planetary reduction ratio in the neighborhood of four to five.

Ebola Virus Uses Clathrin-Mediated Endocytosis as an Entry Pathway

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

enter cells ( Veiga and Cossart, 2005). The large size of the Listeria, which extends to 2 μm (Giardini and Theriot, 2001), suggests that clathrin coated...Weibull, C., Everitt, E., 1991. Infectious entry pathway of adenovirus type 2. J. Virol. 65 (11), 6061–6070. Veiga , E., Cossart, P., 2005. Listeria hijacks

Effect of high pressure hydrogen on the mechanical characteristics of single carbon fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, Sang Koo; Kwon, Oh Heon; Jang, Hoon-Sik; Ryu, Kwon Sang; Nahm, Seung Hoon

2018-02-01

In this study, carbon fiber was exposed to a pressure of 7 MPa for 24 h in high pressure chamber. The tensile test for carbon fiber was conducted to estimate the effect on the high pressure hydrogen in the atmosphere. To determine the tensile strength and Weibull modulus, approximately thirty carbon fiber samples were measured in all cases, and carbon fiber exposed to high pressure argon was evaluated to verify only the effect of hydrogen. Additionally, carbon fiber samples were annealed at 1950 °C for 1 h for a comparison with normal carbon fiber and then tested under identical conditions. The results showed that the tensile strength scatter of normal carbon fiber exposed to hydrogen was relatively wider and the Weibull modulus was decreased. Moreover, the tensile strength of the annealed carbon fiber exposed to hydrogen was increased, and these samples indicated a complex Weibull modulus because the hydrogen stored in the carbon fiber influenced the mechanical characteristic.

Anisotropy, size, and aspect ratio effects on micropillar compression of Al-SiC nanolaminate composites

DOE PAGES

Mayer, C. R.; Yang, L. W.; Singh, S. S.; ...

2016-05-20

Metal-ceramic nanolaminate composites show promise as high strength and toughness materials. Micropillar compression was used to characterize the mechanical behavior of AlSiC multilayers in different orientations including loading at 0°, 45° and 90° with respect to the direction of the layers. The 0° orientation showed the highest strength while the 45° orientation showed the lowest strength. Each orientation showed unique deformation behavior. Effects of pillar size and aspect ratio were also studied. Higher compressive strengths were observed in smaller pillars for all orientations. This effect was shown to be due to a lower probability of flaws using Weibull statistics. Additionally,more » changes in the aspect ratio was shown to have no significant effect on the behavior except an increase in the strain to failure in the 0° orientation. In conclusion, finite element analysis (FEA) was used to simulate and understand the effect of these parameters on the deformation behavior.« less

A review and comparison of methods for recreating individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves for economic evaluations: a simulation study.

PubMed

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

A Review and Comparison of Methods for Recreating Individual Patient Data from Published Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves for Economic Evaluations: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

Background In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. Methods A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. Results All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. Conclusions The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. PMID:25803659

Statistical Models of Fracture Relevant to Nuclear-Grade Graphite: Review and Recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Bratton, Robert L.

2011-01-01

The nuclear-grade (low-impurity) graphite needed for the fuel element and moderator material for next-generation (Gen IV) reactors displays large scatter in strength and a nonlinear stress-strain response from damage accumulation. This response can be characterized as quasi-brittle. In this expanded review, relevant statistical failure models for various brittle and quasi-brittle material systems are discussed with regard to strength distribution, size effect, multiaxial strength, and damage accumulation. This includes descriptions of the Weibull, Batdorf, and Burchell models as well as models that describe the strength response of composite materials, which involves distributed damage. Results from lattice simulations are included for a physics-based description of material breakdown. Consideration is given to the predicted transition between brittle and quasi-brittle damage behavior versus the density of damage (level of disorder) within the material system. The literature indicates that weakest-link-based failure modeling approaches appear to be reasonably robust in that they can be applied to materials that display distributed damage, provided that the level of disorder in the material is not too large. The Weibull distribution is argued to be the most appropriate statistical distribution to model the stochastic-strength response of graphite.

Use of the Weibull function to predict future diameter distributions from current plot data

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2012-01-01

The Weibull function has been widely used to characterize diameter distributions in forest stands. The future diameter distribution of a forest stand can be predicted by use of a Weibull probability density function from current inventory data for that stand. The parameter recovery approach has been used to “recover” the Weibull parameters from diameter moments or...

Recalcitrant vulnerability curves: methods of analysis and the concept of fibre bridges for enhanced cavitation resistance.

PubMed

Cai, Jing; Li, Shan; Zhang, Haixin; Zhang, Shuoxin; Tyree, Melvin T

2014-01-01

Vulnerability curves (VCs) generally can be fitted to the Weibull equation; however, a growing number of VCs appear to be recalcitrant, that is, deviate from a Weibull but seem to fit dual Weibull curves. We hypothesize that dual Weibull curves in Hippophae rhamnoides L. are due to different vessel diameter classes, inter-vessel hydraulic connections or vessels versus fibre tracheids. We used dye staining techniques, hydraulic measurements and quantitative anatomy measurements to test these hypotheses. The fibres contribute 1.3% of the total stem conductivity, which eliminates the hypothesis that fibre tracheids account for the second Weibull curve. Nevertheless, the staining pattern of vessels and fibre tracheids suggested that fibres might function as a hydraulic bridge between adjacent vessels. We also argue that fibre bridges are safer than vessel-to-vessel pits and put forward the concept as a new paradigm. Hence, we tentatively propose that the first Weibull curve may be accounted by vessels connected to each other directly by pit fields, while the second Weibull curve is associated with vessels that are connected almost exclusively by fibre bridges. Further research is needed to test the concept of fibre bridge safety in species that have recalcitrant or normal Weibull curves. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Accelerated test system strength models based on Birnbaum-Saunders distribution: a complete Bayesian analysis and comparison.

PubMed

Upadhyay, S K; Mukherjee, Bhaswati; Gupta, Ashutosh

2009-09-01

Several models for studies related to tensile strength of materials are proposed in the literature where the size or length component has been taken to be an important factor for studying the specimens' failure behaviour. An important model, developed on the basis of cumulative damage approach, is the three-parameter extension of the Birnbaum-Saunders fatigue model that incorporates size of the specimen as an additional variable. This model is a strong competitor of the commonly used Weibull model and stands better than the traditional models, which do not incorporate the size effect. The paper considers two such cumulative damage models, checks their compatibility with a real dataset, compares them with some of the recent toolkits, and finally recommends a model, which appears an appropriate one. Throughout the study is Bayesian based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Reaction-Formed Silicon Carbide (RFSC) Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, M.; Behrendt, D. R.

1994-01-01

The microstructure and mechanical properties of reaction-formed silicon carbide (RFSC) ceramics fabricated by silicon infiltration of porous carbon preforms are discussed. The morphological characterization of the carbon preforms indicates a very narrow pore size distribution. Measurements of the preform density by physical methods and by mercury porosimetry agree very well and indicate that virtually all of the porosity in the preforms is open to infiltrating liquids. The average room temperature flexural strength of the RFSC material with approximately 8 at.% free silicon is 369 +/- 28 MPa (53.5 +/- 4 ksi). The Weibull strength distribution data give a characteristic strength value of 381 MPa (55 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 14.3. The residual silicon content is lower and the strengths are superior to those of most commercially available reaction-bonded silicon carbide materials.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Corrigendum to ;Assessing tephra total grain-size distribution: Insights from field data analysis; [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 443 (2016) 90-107

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, A.; Pioli, L.; Bonadonna, C.

2017-05-01

The authors found a mistake in the formulation of the distribution named Bi-Weibull distribution reported in the equation (A.2) of the Appendix A. The error affects equation (4) (which is the same as eq. (A.2)) and Table 4 in the original manuscript.

Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

2014-09-01

The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

The effect of surface grinding and sandblasting on flexural strength and reliability of Y-TZP zirconia ceramic.

PubMed

Kosmac, T; Oblak, C; Jevnikar, P; Funduk, N; Marion, L

1999-11-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of grinding and sandblasting on the microstructure, biaxial flexural strength and reliability of two yttria stabilized tetragonal zirconia (Y-TZP) ceramics. Two Y-TZP powders were used to produce fine grained and coarse grained microstructures. Sixty discs from each material were randomly divided into six groups of ten. For each group, a different surface treatment was applied: dry grinding, wet grinding, sandblasting, dry grinding + sandblasting, sandblasting + dry grinding and a control group. Biaxial flexural strength was determined and data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA, followed by Tukey's HSD test (p < 0.05). In addition, Weibull statistics was used to analyze the variability of flexural strength. The relative amount of transformed monoclinic zirconia, corresponding transformed zone depth (TZD) and the mean critical defect size Ccr were calculated. There was no difference in mean strength between the as sintered fine and coarse grained Y-TZP. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were found between the control group and ground fine grained material for both wet and dry grinding. Sandblasting significantly increased the strength in fine and coarse grained materials. All surface treatment procedures reduced the Weibull modulus of Y-TZP. For both materials, the highest amount of the monoclinic phase and the largest TZD was found after sandblasting. Lower amounts of the monoclinic phase were obtained after both grinding procedures, where the highest mean critical defect size Ccr was also calculated. Our results indicate that sandblasting may provide a powerful technique for strengthening Y-TZP in clinical practice. In contrast, grinding may lead to substantial strength degradation and reduced reliability of prefabricated zirconia elements, therefore, sandblasting of ground surfaces is suggested.

Human disease mortality kinetics are explored through a chain model embodying principles of extreme value theory and competing risks.

PubMed

Juckett, D A; Rosenberg, B

1992-04-21

The distributions for human disease-specific mortality exhibit two striking characteristics: survivorship curves that intersect near the longevity limit; and, the clustering of best-fitting Weibull shape parameter values into groups centered on integers. Correspondingly, we have hypothesized that the distribution intersections result from either competitive processes or population partitioning and the integral clustering in the shape parameter results from the occurrence of a small number of rare, rate-limiting events in disease progression. In this report we initiate a theoretical examination of these questions by exploring serial chain model dynamics and parameteric competing risks theory. The links in our chain models are composed of more than one bond, where the number of bonds in a link are denoted the link size and are the number of events necessary to break the link and, hence, the chain. We explored chains with all links of the same size or with segments of the chain composed of different size links (competition). Simulations showed that chain breakage dynamics depended on the weakest-link principle and followed kinetics of extreme-values which were very similar to human mortality kinetics. In particular, failure distributions for simple chains were Weibull-type extreme-value distributions with shape parameter values that were identifiable with the integral link size in the limit of infinite chain length. Furthermore, for chains composed of several segments of differing link size, the survival distributions for the various segments converged at a point in the S(t) tails indistinguishable from human data. This was also predicted by parameteric competing risks theory using Weibull underlying distributions. In both the competitive chain simulations and the parametric competing risks theory, however, the shape values for the intersecting distributions deviated from the integer values typical of human data. We conclude that rare events can be the source of integral shapes in human mortality, that convergence is a salient feature of multiple endpoints, but that pure competition may not be the best explanation for the exact type of convergence observable in human mortality. Finally, while the chain models were not motivated by any specific biological structures, interesting biological correlates to them may be useful in gerontological research.

Evaluation of bond strength of resin cements using different general-purpose statistical software packages for two-parameter Weibull statistics.

PubMed

Roos, Malgorzata; Stawarczyk, Bogna

2012-07-01

This study evaluated and compared Weibull parameters of resin bond strength values using six different general-purpose statistical software packages for two-parameter Weibull distribution. Two-hundred human teeth were randomly divided into 4 groups (n=50), prepared and bonded on dentin according to the manufacturers' instructions using the following resin cements: (i) Variolink (VAN, conventional resin cement), (ii) Panavia21 (PAN, conventional resin cement), (iii) RelyX Unicem (RXU, self-adhesive resin cement) and (iv) G-Cem (GCM, self-adhesive resin cement). Subsequently, all specimens were stored in water for 24h at 37°C. Shear bond strength was measured and the data were analyzed using Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit (MINITAB 16) and two-parameter Weibull statistics with the following statistical software packages: Excel 2011, SPSS 19, MINITAB 16, R 2.12.1, SAS 9.1.3. and STATA 11.2 (p≤0.05). Additionally, the three-parameter Weibull was fitted using MNITAB 16. Two-parameter Weibull calculated with MINITAB and STATA can be compared using an omnibus test and using 95% CI. In SAS only 95% CI were directly obtained from the output. R provided no estimates of 95% CI. In both SAS and R the global comparison of the characteristic bond strength among groups is provided by means of the Weibull regression. EXCEL and SPSS provided no default information about 95% CI and no significance test for the comparison of Weibull parameters among the groups. In summary, conventional resin cement VAN showed the highest Weibull modulus and characteristic bond strength. There are discrepancies in the Weibull statistics depending on the software package and the estimation method. The information content in the default output provided by the software packages differs to very high extent. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

The Effect of Sr Modifier Additions on Double Oxide Film Defects in 2L99 Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qi; Griffiths, W. D.

2017-11-01

In this paper, Sr modifier (300 ppm) was added to 2L99 alloy sand castings to investigate its effect on bifilm defects in the castings. Two different sand molds were used in this study, with good and bad running system designs, to introduce different amounts of bifilm defects into the castings. The mechanical properties of the modified 2L99 castings were compared to the properties of unmodified castings and showed that with high bifilm defect contents (H) the Sr addition reduced the Weibull modulus of the UTS by 67 pct and the Position Parameter by 5 pct, and introduced a bimodal distribution into the Weibull plot of the pct Elongation. However, for castings with low bifilm defect content (L), the Weibull moduli of both the UTS and pct Elongation were significantly improved (by 78 and 73 pct, respectively) with the addition of Sr. The Position Parameter of the pct Elongation was improved by 135 pct. The results suggested that a desirable modification effect can only be achieved while the bifilm defect content in a casting was low.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Modeling failure in brittle porous ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keles, Ozgur

Brittle porous materials (BPMs) are used for battery, fuel cell, catalyst, membrane, filter, bone graft, and pharmacy applications due to the multi-functionality of their underlying porosity. However, in spite of its technological benefits the effects of porosity on BPM fracture strength and Weibull statistics are not fully understood--limiting a wider use. In this context, classical fracture mechanics was combined with two-dimensional finite element simulations not only to account for pore-pore stress interactions, but also to numerically quantify the relationship between the local pore volume fraction and fracture statistics. Simulations show that even the microstructures with the same porosity level and size of pores differ substantially in fracture strength. The maximum reliability of BPMs was shown to be limited by the underlying pore--pore interactions. Fracture strength of BMPs decreases at a faster rate under biaxial loading than under uniaxial loading. Three different types of deviation from classic Weibull behavior are identified: P-type corresponding to a positive lower tail deviation, N-type corresponding to a negative lower tail deviation, and S-type corresponding to both positive upper and lower tail deviations. Pore-pore interactions result in either P-type or N-type deviation in the limit of low porosity, whereas S-type behavior occurs when clusters of low and high fracture strengths coexist in a fracture data.

ZERODUR - bending strength: review of achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2017-08-01

Increased demand for using the glass ceramic ZERODUR® with high mechanical loads called for strength data based on larger statistical samples. Design calculations for failure probability target value below 1: 100 000 cannot be made reliable with parameters derived from 20 specimen samples. The data now available for a variety of surface conditions, ground with different grain sizes and acid etched for full micro crack removal, allow stresses by factors four to ten times higher than before. The large sample revealed that breakage stresses of ground surfaces follow the three parameter Weibull distribution instead of the two parameter version. This is more reasonable considering that the micro cracks of such surfaces have a maximum depth which is reflected in the existence of a threshold breakage stress below which breakage probability is zero. This minimum strength allows calculating minimum lifetimes. Fatigue under load can be taken into account by using the stress corrosion coefficient for the actual environmental humidity. For fully etched surfaces Weibull statistics fails. The precondition of the Weibull distribution, the existence of one unique failure mechanism, is not given anymore. ZERODUR® with fully etched surfaces free from damages introduced after etching endures easily 100 MPa tensile stress. The possibility to use ZERODUR® for combined high precision and high stress application was confirmed by the successful launch and continuing operation of LISA Pathfinder the precursor experiment for the gravitational wave antenna satellite array eLISA.

A Weibull distribution accrual failure detector for cloud computing.

PubMed

Liu, Jiaxi; Wu, Zhibo; Wu, Jin; Dong, Jian; Zhao, Yao; Wen, Dongxin

2017-01-01

Failure detectors are used to build high availability distributed systems as the fundamental component. To meet the requirement of a complicated large-scale distributed system, accrual failure detectors that can adapt to multiple applications have been studied extensively. However, several implementations of accrual failure detectors do not adapt well to the cloud service environment. To solve this problem, a new accrual failure detector based on Weibull Distribution, called the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector, has been proposed specifically for cloud computing. It can adapt to the dynamic and unexpected network conditions in cloud computing. The performance of the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector is evaluated and compared based on public classical experiment data and cloud computing experiment data. The results show that the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector has better performance in terms of speed and accuracy in unstable scenarios, especially in cloud computing.

Application of Weibull analysis to SSME hardware

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gray, L. A. B.

1986-01-01

Generally, it has been documented that the wearing of engine parts forms a failure distribution which can be approximated by a function developed by Weibull. The purpose here is to examine to what extent the Weibull distribution approximates failure data for designated engine parts of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The current testing certification requirements will be examined in order to establish confidence levels. An examination of the failure history of SSME parts/assemblies (turbine blades, main combustion chamber, or high pressure fuel pump first stage impellers) which are limited in usage by time or starts will be done by using updated Weibull techniques. Efforts will be made by the investigator to predict failure trends by using Weibull techniques for SSME parts (turbine temperature sensors, chamber pressure transducers, actuators, and controllers) which are not severely limited by time or starts.

Investigation of Weibull statistics in fracture analysis of cast aluminum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

1989-01-01

The fracture strengths of two large batches of A357-T6 cast aluminum coupon specimens were compared by using two-parameter Weibull analysis. The minimum number of these specimens necessary to find the fracture strength of the material was determined. The applicability of three-parameter Weibull analysis was also investigated. A design methodology based on the combination of elementary stress analysis and Weibull statistical analysis is advanced and applied to the design of a spherical pressure vessel shell. The results from this design methodology are compared with results from the applicable ASME pressure vessel code.

Resolution of molecular weight distributions in slightly pyrolyzed cellulose using the weibull function

Treesearch

A. Broido; Hsiukang Yow

1977-01-01

Even before weight loss in the low-temperature pyrolysis of cellulose becomes significant, the average degree of polymerization of the partially pyrolyzed samples drops sharply. The gel permeation chromatograms of nitrated derivatives of the samples can be described in terms of a small number of mixed size populations—each component fitted within reasonable limits by a...

A Weibull model to describe antimicrobial kinetics of oregano and lemongrass essential oils against Salmonella Enteritidis in ground beef during refrigerated storage.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Thales Leandro Coutinho; Soares, Rodrigo de Araújo; Piccoli, Roberta Hilsdorf

2013-03-01

The antimicrobial effect of oregano (Origanum vulgare L.) and lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus (DC.) Stapf.) essential oils (EOs) against Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis in in vitro experiments, and inoculated in ground bovine meat during refrigerated storage (4±2 °C) for 6 days was evaluated. The Weibull model was tested to fit survival/inactivation bacterial curves (estimating of p and δ parameters). The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) value for both EOs on S. Enteritidis was 3.90 μl/ml. The EO concentrations applied in the ground beef were 3.90, 7.80 and 15.60 μl/g, based on MIC levels and possible activity reduction by food constituents. Both evaluated EOs in all tested levels, showed antimicrobial effects, with microbial populations reducing (p≤0.05) along time storage. Evaluating fit-quality parameters (RSS and RSE) Weibull models are able to describe the inactivation curves of EOs against S. Enteritidis. The application of EOs in processed meats can be used to control pathogens during refrigerated shelf-life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. C.; Wimmer, J. M.; Huang, H. H.; Rorabaugh, M. E.; Schienle, J.; Styhr, K. H.

1985-01-01

The AiResearch Casting Company baseline silicon nitride (92 percent GTE SN-502 Si sub 3 N sub 4 plus 6 percent Y sub 2 O sub 3 plus 2 percent Al sub 2 O sub 3) was characterized with methods that included chemical analysis, oxygen content determination, electrophoresis, particle size distribution analysis, surface area determination, and analysis of the degree of agglomeration and maximum particle size of elutriated powder. Test bars were injection molded and processed through sintering at 0.68 MPa (100 psi) of nitrogen. The as-sintered test bars were evaluated by X-ray phase analysis, room and elevated temperature modulus of rupture strength, Weibull modulus, stress rupture, strength after oxidation, fracture origins, microstructure, and density from quantities of samples sufficiently large to generate statistically valid results. A series of small test matrices were conducted to study the effects and interactions of processing parameters which included raw materials, binder systems, binder removal cycles, injection molding temperatures, particle size distribution, sintering additives, and sintering cycle parameters.

Kinetics of Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger Spores and Staphylococcus albus on Paper by Chlorine Dioxide Gas in an Enclosed Space.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Wu, Jinhui; Qi, Jiancheng; Hao, Limei; Yi, Ying; Zhang, Zongxing

2016-05-15

Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spore and Staphylococcus albus are typical biological indicators for the inactivation of airborne pathogens. The present study characterized and compared the behaviors of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus in regard to inactivation by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas under different gas concentrations and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The inactivation kinetics under different ClO2 gas concentrations (1 to 5 mg/liter) were determined by first-order and Weibull models. A new model (the Weibull-H model) was established to reveal the inactivation tendency and kinetics for ClO2 gas under different RH conditions (30 to 90%). The results showed that both the gas concentration and RH were significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the inactivation of the two chosen indicators. There was a rapid improvement in the inactivation efficiency under high RH (>70%). Compared with the first-order model, the Weibull and Weibull-H models demonstrated a better fit for the experimental data, indicating nonlinear inactivation behaviors of the vegetative bacteria and spores following exposure to ClO2 gas. The times to achieve a six-log reduction of B. subtilis subsp. niger spore and S. albus were calculated based on the established models. Clarifying the kinetics of inactivation of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus by ClO2 gas will allow the development of ClO2 gas treatments that provide an effective disinfection method. Chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas is a novel and effective fumigation agent with strong oxidization ability and a broad biocidal spectrum. The antimicrobial efficacy of ClO2 gas has been evaluated in many previous studies. However, there are presently no published models that can be used to describe the kinetics of inactivation of airborne pathogens by ClO2 gas under different gas concentrations and RH conditions. The first-order and Weibull (Weibull-H) models established in this study can characterize and compare the behaviors of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spores and Staphylococcus albus in regard to inactivation by ClO2 gas, determine the kinetics of inactivation of two chosen strains under different conditions of gas concentration and RH, and provide the calculated time to achieve a six-log reduction. These results will be useful to determine effective conditions for ClO2 gas to inactivate airborne pathogens in contaminated air and other environments and thus prevent outbreaks of airborne illness. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Kinetics of Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger Spores and Staphylococcus albus on Paper by Chlorine Dioxide Gas in an Enclosed Space

PubMed Central

Wang, Tao; Wu, Jinhui; Hao, Limei; Yi, Ying; Zhang, Zongxing

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spore and Staphylococcus albus are typical biological indicators for the inactivation of airborne pathogens. The present study characterized and compared the behaviors of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus in regard to inactivation by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas under different gas concentrations and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The inactivation kinetics under different ClO2 gas concentrations (1 to 5 mg/liter) were determined by first-order and Weibull models. A new model (the Weibull-H model) was established to reveal the inactivation tendency and kinetics for ClO2 gas under different RH conditions (30 to 90%). The results showed that both the gas concentration and RH were significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the inactivation of the two chosen indicators. There was a rapid improvement in the inactivation efficiency under high RH (>70%). Compared with the first-order model, the Weibull and Weibull-H models demonstrated a better fit for the experimental data, indicating nonlinear inactivation behaviors of the vegetative bacteria and spores following exposure to ClO2 gas. The times to achieve a six-log reduction of B. subtilis subsp. niger spore and S. albus were calculated based on the established models. Clarifying the kinetics of inactivation of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus by ClO2 gas will allow the development of ClO2 gas treatments that provide an effective disinfection method. IMPORTANCE Chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas is a novel and effective fumigation agent with strong oxidization ability and a broad biocidal spectrum. The antimicrobial efficacy of ClO2 gas has been evaluated in many previous studies. However, there are presently no published models that can be used to describe the kinetics of inactivation of airborne pathogens by ClO2 gas under different gas concentrations and RH conditions. The first-order and Weibull (Weibull-H) models established in this study can characterize and compare the behaviors of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spores and Staphylococcus albus in regard to inactivation by ClO2 gas, determine the kinetics of inactivation of two chosen strains under different conditions of gas concentration and RH, and provide the calculated time to achieve a six-log reduction. These results will be useful to determine effective conditions for ClO2 gas to inactivate airborne pathogens in contaminated air and other environments and thus prevent outbreaks of airborne illness. PMID:26969707

A Weibull distribution accrual failure detector for cloud computing

PubMed Central

Wu, Zhibo; Wu, Jin; Zhao, Yao; Wen, Dongxin

2017-01-01

Failure detectors are used to build high availability distributed systems as the fundamental component. To meet the requirement of a complicated large-scale distributed system, accrual failure detectors that can adapt to multiple applications have been studied extensively. However, several implementations of accrual failure detectors do not adapt well to the cloud service environment. To solve this problem, a new accrual failure detector based on Weibull Distribution, called the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector, has been proposed specifically for cloud computing. It can adapt to the dynamic and unexpected network conditions in cloud computing. The performance of the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector is evaluated and compared based on public classical experiment data and cloud computing experiment data. The results show that the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector has better performance in terms of speed and accuracy in unstable scenarios, especially in cloud computing. PMID:28278229

Maximum likelihood estimates, from censored data, for mixed-Weibull distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Siyuan; Kececioglu, Dimitri

1992-06-01

A new algorithm for estimating the parameters of mixed-Weibull distributions from censored data is presented. The algorithm follows the principle of maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) through the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm, and it is derived for both postmortem and nonpostmortem time-to-failure data. It is concluded that the concept of the EM algorithm is easy to understand and apply (only elementary statistics and calculus are required). The log-likelihood function cannot decrease after an EM sequence; this important feature was observed in all of the numerical calculations. The MLEs of the nonpostmortem data were obtained successfully for mixed-Weibull distributions with up to 14 parameters in a 5-subpopulation, mixed-Weibull distribution. Numerical examples indicate that some of the log-likelihood functions of the mixed-Weibull distributions have multiple local maxima; therefore, the algorithm should start at several initial guesses of the parameter set.

Modeling of Abrasion and Crushing of Unbound Granular Materials During Compaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ocampo, Manuel S.; Caicedo, Bernardo

2009-06-01

Unbound compacted granular materials are commonly used in engineering structures as layers in road pavements, railroad beds, highway embankments, and foundations. These structures are generally subjected to dynamic loading by construction operations, traffic and wheel loads. These repeated or cyclic loads cause abrasion and crushing of the granular materials. Abrasion changes a particle's shape, and crushing divides the particle into a mixture of many small particles of varying sizes. Particle breakage is important because the mechanical and hydraulic properties of these materials depend upon their grain size distribution. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the evolution of the grain size distribution of these materials. In this paper an analytical model for unbound granular materials is proposed in order to evaluate particle crushing of gravels and soils subjected to cyclic loads. The model is based on a Markov chain which describes the development of grading changes in the material as a function of stress levels. In the model proposed, each particle size is a state in the system, and the evolution of the material is the movement of particles from one state to another in n steps. Each step is a load cycle, and movement between states is possible with a transition probability. The crushing of particles depends on the mechanical properties of each grain and the packing density of the granular material. The transition probability was calculated using both the survival probability defined by Weibull and the compressible packing model developed by De Larrard. Material mechanical properties are considered using the Weibull probability theory. The size and shape of the grains, as well as the method of processing the packing density are considered using De Larrard's model. Results of the proposed analytical model show a good agreement with the experimental tests carried out using the gyratory compaction test.

Investigations on Size Effects of Zerodur®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behar-Lafenetre, S.; Cornillon, L.; Ait-Zaid, S.; Rancurel, M.

2014-06-01

Zerodur® is a well-known glass-ceramic used for optical components because of its unequalled stability under thermal environment (due to its extremely low Coefficient of Thermal Expansion). In particular it has been used since decades in Thales Alenia Space's optical payloads for space telescopes, especially for primary mirrors.The drawback of Zerodur® however is its quite low strength: 10 MPa is historically used as a rule of thumb. However, as performance of space telescopes is increasing, an optimization of the design is necessary and therefore an increase of the strength limit taken into account in the calculations.Thales Alenia Space is therefore currently investigating the so-called "size effect" on Zerodur® (see Weibull theory), under CNES funding, with the aim of re- estimating the lower bound of Zerodur® strength.For this, a complete test campaign has been defined with a high number of samples in order to reduce uncertainties. This article presents the first results obtained.

Probability density function characterization for aggregated large-scale wind power based on Weibull mixtures

DOE PAGES

Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio; Bueso, Maria C.; Kessler, Mathieu; ...

2016-02-02

Here, the Weibull probability distribution has been widely applied to characterize wind speeds for wind energy resources. Wind power generation modeling is different, however, due in particular to power curve limitations, wind turbine control methods, and transmission system operation requirements. These differences are even greater for aggregated wind power generation in power systems with high wind penetration. Consequently, models based on one-Weibull component can provide poor characterizations for aggregated wind power generation. With this aim, the present paper focuses on discussing Weibull mixtures to characterize the probability density function (PDF) for aggregated wind power generation. PDFs of wind power datamore » are firstly classified attending to hourly and seasonal patterns. The selection of the number of components in the mixture is analyzed through two well-known different criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Finally, the optimal number of Weibull components for maximum likelihood is explored for the defined patterns, including the estimated weight, scale, and shape parameters. Results show that multi-Weibull models are more suitable to characterize aggregated wind power data due to the impact of distributed generation, variety of wind speed values and wind power curtailment.« less

Weibull mixture regression for marginal inference in zero-heavy continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Gebregziabher, Mulugeta; Voronca, Delia; Teklehaimanot, Abeba; Santa Ana, Elizabeth J

2017-06-01

Continuous outcomes with preponderance of zero values are ubiquitous in data that arise from biomedical studies, for example studies of addictive disorders. This is known to lead to violation of standard assumptions in parametric inference and enhances the risk of misleading conclusions unless managed properly. Two-part models are commonly used to deal with this problem. However, standard two-part models have limitations with respect to obtaining parameter estimates that have marginal interpretation of covariate effects which are important in many biomedical applications. Recently marginalized two-part models are proposed but their development is limited to log-normal and log-skew-normal distributions. Thus, in this paper, we propose a finite mixture approach, with Weibull mixture regression as a special case, to deal with the problem. We use extensive simulation study to assess the performance of the proposed model in finite samples and to make comparisons with other family of models via statistical information and mean squared error criteria. We demonstrate its application on real data from a randomized controlled trial of addictive disorders. Our results show that a two-component Weibull mixture model is preferred for modeling zero-heavy continuous data when the non-zero part are simulated from Weibull or similar distributions such as Gamma or truncated Gauss.

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1991-01-01

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

An EOQ model for weibull distribution deterioration with time-dependent cubic demand and backlogging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model with weibull deterioration and time dependent cubic demand rate where holding costs as a linear function of time. Shortages are allowed in the inventory system are partially and fully backlogging. The objective of this model is to minimize the total inventory cost by using the optimal order quantity and the cycle length. The proposed model is illustrated by numerical examples and the sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effect of changes in parameters on the optimum solutions.

Fisher information for two gamma frailty bivariate Weibull models.

PubMed

Bjarnason, H; Hougaard, P

2000-03-01

The asymptotic properties of frailty models for multivariate survival data are not well understood. To study this aspect, the Fisher information is derived in the standard bivariate gamma frailty model, where the survival distribution is of Weibull form conditional on the frailty. For comparison, the Fisher information is also derived in the bivariate gamma frailty model, where the marginal distribution is of Weibull form.

The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

2009-07-01

Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting time. We find that our distribution is applicable as long as durations follow a Weibull law for short times and do not have too heavy a tail.

Release kinetics of volatile organic compounds from roasted and ground coffee: online measurements by PTR-MS and mathematical modeling.

PubMed

Mateus, Maria-L; Lindinger, Christian; Gumy, Jean-C; Liardon, Remy

2007-12-12

The present work shows the possibilities and limitations in modeling release kinetics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from roasted and ground coffee by applying physical and empirical models such as the diffusion and Weibull models. The release kinetics of VOCs were measured online by proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometry (PTR-MS). Compounds were identified by GC-MS, and the contribution of the individual compounds to different mass fragments was elucidated by GC/PTR-MS. Coffee samples roasted to different roasting degrees and ground to different particle sizes were studied under dry and wet stripping conditions. To investigate the accuracy of modeling the VOC release kinetics recorded using PTR-MS, online kinetics were compared with kinetics reconstituted from purge and trap samplings. Results showed that uncertainties in ion intensities due to the presence of isobaric species may prevent the development of a robust mathematical model. Of the 20 identified compounds, 5 were affected to a lower extent as their contribution to specific m/z intensity varied by <15% over the stripping time. The kinetics of these compounds were fitted using physical and statistical models, respectively, the diffusion and Weibull models, which helped to identify the underlying release mechanisms. For dry stripping, the diffusion model allowed a good representation of the release kinetics, whereas for wet stripping conditions, release patterns were very complex and almost specific for each compound analyzed. In the case of prewetted coffee, varying particle size (approximately 400-1200 microm) had no significant effect on the VOC release rate, whereas for dry coffee, the release was faster for smaller particles. The absence of particle size effect in wet coffee was attributed to the increase of opened porosity and compound diffusivity by solubilization and matrix relaxation. To conclude, the accurate modeling of VOC release kinetics from coffee allowed small variations in compound release to be discriminated. Furthermore, it evidenced the different aroma compositions that may be obtained depending on the time when VOCs are recovered.

Meteorite fractures and the behavior of meteoroids in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryson, K.; Ostrowski, D. R.; Sears, D. W. G.

2015-12-01

Arguably the major difficulty faced to model the atmospheric behavior of objects entering the atmosphere is that we know very little about the internal structure of these objects and their methods of fragmentation during fall. In a study of over a thousand meteorite fragments (mostly hand-sized, some 40 or 50 cm across) in the collections of the Natural History Museums in Vienna and London, we identified six kinds of fracturing behavior. (1) Chondrites usually showed random fractures with no particular sensitivity to meteorite texture. (2) Coarse irons fractured along kamacite grain boundaries, while (3) fine irons fragmented randomly, c.f. chondrites. (4) Fine irons with large crystal boundaries (e.g. Arispe) fragmented along the crystal boundaries. (5) A few chondrites, three in the present study, have a distinct and strong network of fractures making a brickwork or chicken-wire structure. The Chelyabinsk meteorite has the chicken-wire structure of fractures, which explains the very large number of centimeter-sized fragments that showered the Earth. Finally, (6) previous work on Sutter's Mill showed that water-rich meteorites fracture around clasts. To scale the meteorite fractures to the fragmentation behavior of near-Earth asteroids, it has been suggested that the fracturing behavior follows a statistical prediction made in the 1930s, the Weibull distribution, where fractures are assumed to be randomly distributed through the target and the likelihood of encountering a fracture increases with distance. This results in a relationship: σl = σs(ns/nl)α, where σs and σl refers to stress in the small and large object and ns and nl refer to the number of cracks per unit volume of the small and large object. The value for α, the Weibull coefficient, is unclear. Ames meteorite laboratory is working to measure the density and length of fractures observed in these six types of fracture to determine values for the Weibull coefficient for each type of object.

Scale-dependent measurements of meteorite strength: Implications for asteroid fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotto-Figueroa, Desireé; Asphaug, Erik; Garvie, Laurence A. J.; Rai, Ashwin; Johnston, Joel; Borkowski, Luke; Datta, Siddhant; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Morris, Melissa A.

2016-10-01

Measuring the strengths of asteroidal materials is important for developing mitigation strategies for potential Earth impactors and for understanding properties of in situ materials on asteroids during human and robotic exploration. Studies of asteroid disruption and fragmentation have typically used the strengths determined from terrestrial analog materials, although questions have been raised regarding the suitability of these materials. The few published measurements of meteorite strength are typically significantly greater than those estimated from the stratospheric breakup of meter-sized meteoroids. Given the paucity of relevant strength data, the scale-varying strength properties of meteoritic and asteroidal materials are poorly constrained. Based on our uniaxial failure studies of centimeter-sized cubes of a carbonaceous and ordinary chondrite, we develop the first Weibull failure distribution analysis of meteorites. This Weibull distribution projected to meter scales, overlaps the strengths determined from asteroidal airbursts and can be used to predict properties of to the 100 m scale. In addition, our analysis shows that meter-scale boulders on asteroids are significantly weaker than small pieces of meteorites, while large meteorites surviving on Earth are selected by attrition. Further, the common use of terrestrial analog materials to predict scale-dependent strength properties significantly overestimates the strength of meter-sized asteroidal materials and therefore is unlikely well suited for the modeling of asteroid disruption and fragmentation. Given the strength scale-dependence determined for carbonaceous and ordinary chondrite meteorites, our results suggest that boulders of similar composition on asteroids will have compressive strengths significantly less than typical terrestrial rocks.

Mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease: applications to a cohort assembled from electronic health records.

PubMed

Cheung, Li C; Pan, Qing; Hyun, Noorie; Schiffman, Mark; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Lorey, Thomas; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-09-30

For cost-effectiveness and efficiency, many large-scale general-purpose cohort studies are being assembled within large health-care providers who use electronic health records. Two key features of such data are that incident disease is interval-censored between irregular visits and there can be pre-existing (prevalent) disease. Because prevalent disease is not always immediately diagnosed, some disease diagnosed at later visits are actually undiagnosed prevalent disease. We consider prevalent disease as a point mass at time zero for clinical applications where there is no interest in time of prevalent disease onset. We demonstrate that the naive Kaplan-Meier cumulative risk estimator underestimates risks at early time points and overestimates later risks. We propose a general family of mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease that we call prevalence-incidence models. Parameters for parametric prevalence-incidence models, such as the logistic regression and Weibull survival (logistic-Weibull) model, are estimated by direct likelihood maximization or by EM algorithm. Non-parametric methods are proposed to calculate cumulative risks for cases without covariates. We compare naive Kaplan-Meier, logistic-Weibull, and non-parametric estimates of cumulative risk in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Kaplan-Meier provided poor estimates while the logistic-Weibull model was a close fit to the non-parametric. Our findings support our use of logistic-Weibull models to develop the risk estimates that underlie current US risk-based cervical cancer screening guidelines. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Effect of bending on the room-temperature tensile strengths of structural ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, M.G.

1992-01-01

Results for nearly fifty, room-temperature tensile tests conducted on two advanced, monolithic silicon nitride ceramics are evaluated for the effects of bending and application of various Weibull statistical analyses. Two specimen gripping systems (straight collet and tapered collet) were evaluated for both success in producing gage section failures and tendency to minimize bending at failure. Specimen fabrication and grinding technique consderations are briefly reviewed and related to their effects on successful tensile tests. Ultimate tensile strengths are related to the bending measured at specimen failure and the effects of the gripping system on bending are discussed. Finally, comparisons are mademore » between the use of censored and uncensored data sample sets for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the Weibull parameters from the tensile strength distributions.« less

Effect of bending on the room-temperature tensile strengths of structural ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, M.G.

1992-07-01

Results for nearly fifty, room-temperature tensile tests conducted on two advanced, monolithic silicon nitride ceramics are evaluated for the effects of bending and application of various Weibull statistical analyses. Two specimen gripping systems (straight collet and tapered collet) were evaluated for both success in producing gage section failures and tendency to minimize bending at failure. Specimen fabrication and grinding technique consderations are briefly reviewed and related to their effects on successful tensile tests. Ultimate tensile strengths are related to the bending measured at specimen failure and the effects of the gripping system on bending are discussed. Finally, comparisons are mademore » between the use of censored and uncensored data sample sets for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the Weibull parameters from the tensile strength distributions.« less

Prediction of Mean and Design Fatigue Lives of Self Compacting Concrete Beams in Flexure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, S.; Singh, S. P.; Singh, P.; Kaushik, S. K.

2012-02-01

In this paper, result of an investigation conducted to study the flexural fatigue characteristics of self compacting concrete (SCC) beams in flexure are presented. An experimental programme was planned in which approximately 60 SCC beam specimens of size 100 × 100 × 500 mm were tested under flexural fatigue loading. Approximately 45 static flexural tests were also conducted to facilitate fatigue testing. The flexural fatigue and static flexural strength tests were conducted on a 100 kN servo-controlled actuator. The fatigue life data thus obtained have been used to establish the probability distributions of fatigue life of SCC using two-parameter Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull distribution have been obtained by different methods of analysis. Using the distribution parameters, the mean and design fatigue lives of SCC have been estimated and compared with Normally vibrated concrete (NVC), the data for which have been taken from literature. It has been observed that SCC exhibits higher mean and design fatigue lives compared to NVC.

Statistical analysis of lithium iron sulfide status cell cycle life and failure mode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.; Battles, J.E.; Miller, W.E.

1983-08-01

A statistical model was developed for life cycle testing of electrochemical cell life cycle trials and verified experimentally. The Weibull distribution was selected to predict the end of life for a cell, based on a 20 percent loss of initial stabilized capacity or a decrease to less than 95 percent coulombic efficiency. Groups of 12 or more Li-alloy/FeS cells were cycled to determine the mean time to failure (MTTF) and also to identify the failure modes. The cells were all full size electric vehicle batteries with 150-350 A-hr capacity. The Weibull shape factors were determined and verified in prediction ofmore » the number of cell failures in two 10 cell modules. The short circuit failure in the cells with BN-felt and MgO powder separators were found to be caused by the formation of Li-Al protrusions that penetrated the BN-felt separators, and the extrusion of active material at the edge of the electrodes.« less

Transformation and Self-Similarity Properties of Gamma and Weibull Fragment Size Distributions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

spray formed when a fast gas stream blows over a liquid volume.” As a theoretical justification, they showed that Gamma size distributions are...of Fracture, 140, 243, 2006 P.-K. Wu, G. A. Ruff, and G. M. Faeth, Primary Breakup in Liquid - Gas Mixing Layers, Atomization and Sprays, 1, 421-440...103 meter (m) barn (b) 1 × 10–28 square meter (m2) gallon (gal, U.S. liquid ) 3.785 412 × 10–3 cubic meter (m3) cubic foot (ft3) 2.831 685 × 10–2

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shantaram, S. Pai; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parametes of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by using the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Powers, Lynn M.; Starlinger, Alois

1992-01-01

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

A Weibull characterization for tensile fracture of multicomponent brittle fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrows, R. G.

1977-01-01

A statistical characterization for multicomponent brittle fibers in presented. The method, which is an extension of usual Weibull distribution procedures, statistically considers the components making up a fiber (e.g., substrate, sheath, and surface) as separate entities and taken together as in a fiber. Tensile data for silicon carbide fiber and for an experimental carbon-boron alloy fiber are evaluated in terms of the proposed multicomponent Weibull characterization.

Integrating GLL-Weibull Distribution Within a Bayesian Framework for Life Prediction of Shape Memory Alloy Spring Undergoing Thermo-mechanical Fatigue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Pradeep; Nath, Tameshwer; Palani, I. A.; Lad, Bhupesh K.

2018-06-01

The present paper tackles an important but unmapped problem of the reliability estimations of smart materials. First, an experimental setup is developed for accelerated life testing of the shape memory alloy (SMA) springs. Generalized log-linear Weibull (GLL-Weibull) distribution-based novel approach is then developed for SMA spring life estimation. Applied stimulus (voltage), elongation and cycles of operation are used as inputs for the life prediction model. The values of the parameter coefficients of the model provide better interpretability compared to artificial intelligence based life prediction approaches. In addition, the model also considers the effect of operating conditions, making it generic for a range of the operating conditions. Moreover, a Bayesian framework is used to continuously update the prediction with the actual degradation value of the springs, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the data and improving the prediction accuracy. In addition, the deterioration of material with number of cycles is also investigated using thermogravimetric analysis and scanning electron microscopy.

Edible antimicrobial films based on microencapsulated lemongrass oil.

PubMed

Bustos C, Rubén O; Alberti R, Francesca V; Matiacevich, Silvia B

2016-01-01

Edible films and coatings have been proposed as viable alternatives for the preservation of fresh food such as fruit, meat, fish and cheese. They can be designed to contain natural antioxidants, vitamins and antimicrobials in order to extend shelf life of the product keeping the natural sensorial properties. Essential oils have been targeted as potential active principles for edible films and coatings given their well-recognized antioxidant, antimicrobial and sensory properties. In the present work, lemongrass oil (LMO) microcapsules were prepared by the emulsification-separation method using sodium caseinate as wall material. Microcapsules had an average size of 22 μm and contained over 51 % oil in their nucleus. The release kinetics of the LMO components was studied for both, microcapsules and microcapsule containing films. Experimental data for the controlled release of LMO components showed good correlation with Peppas and Weibull models. The effect of the alginate matrix on the release parameters of the mathematical models could be detected by the modification of the b constant of the Weibull equation which changed from 0.167 for the microcapsules to 0.351 for the films. Films containing LMO at concentrations of 1250, 2500 and 5000 ppm were able to inhibit growth of Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 and Listeria monocytogenes ISP 65-08 in liquid cultures. A possible future application of these films for shelf life extension of fresh food is discussed.

Weibull crack density coefficient for polydimensional stress states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

A structural ceramic analysis and reliability evaluation code has recently been developed encompassing volume and surface flaw induced fracture, modeled by the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. A segment of the software involves computing the Weibull polydimensional stress state crack density coefficient from uniaxial stress experimental fracture data. The relationship of the polydimensional stress coefficient to the uniaxial stress coefficient is derived for a shear-insensitive material with a random surface flaw population.

Reliability Implications in Wood Systems of a Bivariate Gaussian-Weibull Distribution and the Associated Univariate Pseudo-truncated Weibull

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

2014-01-01

Two important wood properties are the modulus of elasticity (MOE) and the modulus of rupture (MOR). In the past, the statistical distribution of the MOE has often been modeled as Gaussian, and that of the MOR as lognormal or as a two- or three-parameter Weibull distribution. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior...

Time-dependent fiber bundles with local load sharing. II. General Weibull fibers.

PubMed

Phoenix, S Leigh; Newman, William I

2009-12-01

Fiber bundle models (FBMs) are useful tools in understanding failure processes in a variety of material systems. While the fibers and load sharing assumptions are easily described, FBM analysis is typically difficult. Monte Carlo methods are also hampered by the severe computational demands of large bundle sizes, which overwhelm just as behavior relevant to real materials starts to emerge. For large size scales, interest continues in idealized FBMs that assume either equal load sharing (ELS) or local load sharing (LLS) among fibers, rules that reflect features of real load redistribution in elastic lattices. The present work focuses on a one-dimensional bundle of N fibers under LLS where life consumption in a fiber follows a power law in its load, with exponent rho , and integrated over time. This life consumption function is further embodied in a functional form resulting in a Weibull distribution for lifetime under constant fiber stress and with Weibull exponent, beta. Thus the failure rate of a fiber depends on its past load history, except for beta=1 . We develop asymptotic results validated by Monte Carlo simulation using a computational algorithm developed in our previous work [Phys. Rev. E 63, 021507 (2001)] that greatly increases the size, N , of treatable bundles (e.g., 10(6) fibers in 10(3) realizations). In particular, our algorithm is O(N ln N) in contrast with former algorithms which were O(N2) making this investigation possible. Regimes are found for (beta,rho) pairs that yield contrasting behavior for large N. For rho>1 and large N, brittle weakest volume behavior emerges in terms of characteristic elements (groupings of fibers) derived from critical cluster formation, and the lifetime eventually goes to zero as N-->infinity , unlike ELS, which yields a finite limiting mean. For 1/21 but with 0

Time-dependent fiber bundles with local load sharing. II. General Weibull fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Newman, William I.

2009-12-01

Fiber bundle models (FBMs) are useful tools in understanding failure processes in a variety of material systems. While the fibers and load sharing assumptions are easily described, FBM analysis is typically difficult. Monte Carlo methods are also hampered by the severe computational demands of large bundle sizes, which overwhelm just as behavior relevant to real materials starts to emerge. For large size scales, interest continues in idealized FBMs that assume either equal load sharing (ELS) or local load sharing (LLS) among fibers, rules that reflect features of real load redistribution in elastic lattices. The present work focuses on a one-dimensional bundle of N fibers under LLS where life consumption in a fiber follows a power law in its load, with exponent ρ , and integrated over time. This life consumption function is further embodied in a functional form resulting in a Weibull distribution for lifetime under constant fiber stress and with Weibull exponent, β . Thus the failure rate of a fiber depends on its past load history, except for β=1 . We develop asymptotic results validated by Monte Carlo simulation using a computational algorithm developed in our previous work [Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81063-651X 63, 021507 (2001)] that greatly increases the size, N , of treatable bundles (e.g., 106 fibers in 103 realizations). In particular, our algorithm is O(NlnN) in contrast with former algorithms which were O(N2) making this investigation possible. Regimes are found for (β,ρ) pairs that yield contrasting behavior for large N . For ρ>1 and large N , brittle weakest volume behavior emerges in terms of characteristic elements (groupings of fibers) derived from critical cluster formation, and the lifetime eventually goes to zero as N→∞ , unlike ELS, which yields a finite limiting mean. For 1/2≤ρ≤1 , however, LLS has remarkably similar behavior to ELS (appearing to be virtually identical for ρ=1 ) with an asymptotic Gaussian lifetime distribution and a finite limiting mean for large N . The coefficient of variation follows a power law in increasing N but, except for ρ=1 , the value of the negative exponent is clearly less than 1/2 unlike in ELS bundles where the exponent remains 1/2 for 1/2<ρ≤1 . For sufficiently small values 0<ρ≪1 , a transition occurs, depending on β , whereby LLS bundle lifetimes become dominated by a few long-lived fibers. Thus the bundle lifetime appears to approximately follow an extreme-value distribution for the longest lived of a parallel group of independent elements, which applies exactly to ρ=0 . The lower the value of β , the higher the transition value of ρ , below which such extreme-value behavior occurs. No evidence was found for limiting Gaussian behavior for ρ>1 but with 0<β(ρ+1)<1 , as might be conjectured from quasistatic bundle models where β(ρ+1) mimics the Weibull exponent for fiber strength.

Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.

2008-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.

A Monte Carlo study of Weibull reliability analysis for space shuttle main engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abernethy, K.

1986-01-01

The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1988-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by uing the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded. The techniques described were verified with several example problems from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Inactivation modeling of human enteric virus surrogates, MS2, Qβ, and ΦX174, in water using UVC-LEDs, a novel disinfecting system.

PubMed

Kim, Do-Kyun; Kim, Soo-Ji; Kang, Dong-Hyun

2017-01-01

In order to assure the microbial safety of drinking water, UVC-LED treatment has emerged as a possible technology to replace the use of conventional low pressure (LP) mercury vapor UV lamps. In this investigation, inactivation of Human Enteric Virus (HuEV) surrogates with UVC-LEDs was investigated in a water disinfection system, and kinetic model equations were applied to depict the surviving infectivities of the viruses. MS2, Qβ, and ΦX 174 bacteriophages were inoculated into sterile distilled water (DW) and irradiated with UVC-LED printed circuit boards (PCBs) (266nm and 279nm) or conventional LP lamps. Infectivities of bacteriophages were effectively reduced by up to 7-log after 9mJ/cm 2 treatment for MS2 and Qβ, and 1mJ/cm 2 for ΦX 174. UVC-LEDs showed a superior viral inactivation effect compared to conventional LP lamps at the same dose (1mJ/cm 2 ). Non-log linear plot patterns were observed, so that Weibull, Biphasic, Log linear-tail, and Weibull-tail model equations were used to fit the virus survival curves. For MS2 and Qβ, Weibull and Biphasic models fit well with R 2 values approximately equal to 0.97-0.99, and the Weibull-tail equation accurately described survival of ΦX 174. The level of UV-susceptibility among coliphages measured by the inactivation rate constant, k, was statistically different (ΦX 174 (ssDNA)>MS2, Qβ (ssRNA)), and indicated that sensitivity to UV was attributed to viral genetic material. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2002-01-01

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type 1 censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kranz, Timothy L.

2002-01-01

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type I censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY OF A SYSTEM MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS AFIT/GOR/MA/81D-8 Philippe A. Lussier 2nd Lt USAF... MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology...repetitions are used for these test procedures. vi Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter

Relationship between Defect Size and Fatigue Life Distributions in Al-7 Pct Si-Mg Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiryakioğlu, Murat

2009-07-01

A new method for predicting the variability in fatigue life of castings was developed by combining the size distribution for the fatigue-initiating defects and a fatigue life model based on the Paris-Erdoğan law for crack propagation. Two datasets for the fatigue-initiating defects in Al-7 pct Si-Mg alloy castings, reported previously in the literature, were used to demonstrate that (1) the size of fatigue-initiating defects follow the Gumbel distribution; (2) the crack propagation model developed previously provides respectable fits to experimental data; and (3) the method developed in the present study expresses the variability in both datasets, almost as well as the lognormal distribution and better than the Weibull distribution.

Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 2, Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-03-01

This volume presents the following appendices: ceramic test specimen drawings and schematics, mixed-mode and biaxial stress fracture of structural ceramics for advanced vehicular heat engines (U. Utah), mode I/mode II fracture toughness and tension/torsion fracture strength of NT154 Si nitride (Brown U.), summary of strength test results and fractography, fractography photographs, derivations of statistical models, Weibull strength plots for fast fracture test specimens, and size functions.

Multiscale modeling of porous ceramics using movable cellular automaton method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolin, Alexey Yu.; Smolin, Igor Yu.; Smolina, Irina Yu.

2017-10-01

The paper presents a multiscale model for porous ceramics based on movable cellular automaton method, which is a particle method in novel computational mechanics of solid. The initial scale of the proposed approach corresponds to the characteristic size of the smallest pores in the ceramics. At this scale, we model uniaxial compression of several representative samples with an explicit account of pores of the same size but with the unique position in space. As a result, we get the average values of Young's modulus and strength, as well as the parameters of the Weibull distribution of these properties at the current scale level. These data allow us to describe the material behavior at the next scale level were only the larger pores are considered explicitly, while the influence of small pores is included via effective properties determined earliar. If the pore size distribution function of the material has N maxima we need to perform computations for N-1 levels in order to get the properties step by step from the lowest scale up to the macroscale. The proposed approach was applied to modeling zirconia ceramics with bimodal pore size distribution. The obtained results show correct behavior of the model sample at the macroscale.

Testing homogeneity in Weibull-regression models.

PubMed

Bolfarine, Heleno; Valença, Dione M

2005-10-01

In survival studies with families or geographical units it may be of interest testing whether such groups are homogeneous for given explanatory variables. In this paper we consider score type tests for group homogeneity based on a mixing model in which the group effect is modelled as a random variable. As opposed to hazard-based frailty models, this model presents survival times that conditioned on the random effect, has an accelerated failure time representation. The test statistics requires only estimation of the conventional regression model without the random effect and does not require specifying the distribution of the random effect. The tests are derived for a Weibull regression model and in the uncensored situation, a closed form is obtained for the test statistic. A simulation study is used for comparing the power of the tests. The proposed tests are applied to real data sets with censored data.

Bridge element deterioration rates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

This report describes the development of bridge element deterioration rates using the NYSDOT : bridge inspection database using Markov chains and Weibull-based approaches. It is observed : that Weibull-based approach is more reliable for developing b...

The effect of core material, veneering porcelain, and fabrication technique on the biaxial flexural strength and weibull analysis of selected dental ceramics.

PubMed

Lin, Wei-Shao; Ercoli, Carlo; Feng, Changyong; Morton, Dean

2012-07-01

The objective of this study was to compare the effect of veneering porcelain (monolithic or bilayer specimens) and core fabrication technique (heat-pressed or CAD/CAM) on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus of leucite-reinforced and lithium-disilicate glass ceramics. In addition, the effect of veneering technique (heat-pressed or powder/liquid layering) for zirconia ceramics on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus was studied. Five ceramic core materials (IPS Empress Esthetic, IPS Empress CAD, IPS e.max Press, IPS e.max CAD, IPS e.max ZirCAD) and three corresponding veneering porcelains (IPS Empress Esthetic Veneer, IPS e.max Ceram, IPS e.max ZirPress) were selected for this study. Each core material group contained three subgroups based on the core material thickness and the presence of corresponding veneering porcelain as follows: 1.5 mm core material only (subgroup 1.5C), 0.8 mm core material only (subgroup 0.8C), and 1.5 mm core/veneer group: 0.8 mm core with 0.7 mm corresponding veneering porcelain with a powder/liquid layering technique (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VL). The ZirCAD group had one additional 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroup with 0.7 mm heat-pressed veneering porcelain (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP). The biaxial flexural strengths were compared for each subgroup (n = 10) according to ISO standard 6872:2008 with ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc multiple comparison test (p≤ 0.05). The reliability of strength was analyzed with the Weibull distribution. For all core materials, the 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroups (0.8C-0.7VL, 0.8C-0.7VP) had significantly lower mean biaxial flexural strengths (p < 0.0001) than the other two subgroups (subgroups 1.5C and 0.8C). For the ZirCAD group, the 0.8C-0.7VL subgroup had significantly lower flexural strength (p= 0.004) than subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP. Nonetheless, both veneered ZirCAD groups showed greater flexural strength than the monolithic Empress and e.max groups, regardless of core thickness and fabrication techniques. Comparing fabrication techniques, Empress Esthetic/CAD, e.max Press/CAD had similar biaxial flexural strength (p= 0.28 for Empress pair; p= 0.87 for e.max pair); however, e.max CAD/Press groups had significantly higher flexural strength (p < 0.0001) than Empress Esthetic/CAD groups. Monolithic core specimens presented with higher Weibull modulus with all selected core materials. For the ZirCAD group, although the bilayer 0.8C-0.7VL subgroup exhibited significantly lower flexural strength, it had highest Weibull modulus than the 0.8C-0.7VP subgroup. The present study suggests that veneering porcelain onto a ceramic core material diminishes the flexural strength and the reliability of the bilayer specimens. Leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic cores have lower flexural strength than lithium-disilicate ones, while fabrication techniques (heat-pressed or CAD/CAM) and specimen thicknesses do not affect the flexural strength of all glass ceramics. Compared with the heat-pressed veneering technique, the powder/liquid veneering technique exhibited lower flexural strength but increased reliability with a higher Weibull modulus for zirconia bilayer specimens. Zirconia-veneered ceramics exhibited greater flexural strength than monolithic leucite-reinforced and lithium-disilicate ceramics regardless of zirconia veneering techniques (heat-pressed or powder/liquid technique). © 2012 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2014-06-01

Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.

2012-12-01

Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is not yet a common source of energy, although there is enough wind potential to supply world's energy demand. One of the most prominent obstacles on the way of employing wind energy is the uncertainty associated with wind energy assessment. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how the variation of input parameters in an abstract model effects the variation of the variable of interest or the output variable. It also provides ways to calculate explicit measures of importance of input variables (first order and total effect sensitivity indices) in regard to influence on the variation of the output variable. Two methods of determining the above mentioned indices were applied and compared: the brute force method and the best practice estimation procedure In this study a methodology for conducting global SA of wind energy assessment at a planning stage is proposed. Three sampling strategies which are a part of SA procedure were compared: sampling based on Sobol' sequences (SBSS), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and pseudo-random sampling (PRS). A case study of Masdar City, a showcase of sustainable living in the UAE, is used to exemplify application of the proposed methodology. Sources of uncertainty in wind energy assessment are very diverse. In the case study the following were identified as uncertain input parameters: the Weibull shape parameter, the Weibull scale parameter, availability of a wind turbine, lifetime of a turbine, air density, electrical losses, blade losses, ineffective time losses. Ineffective time losses are defined as losses during the time when the actual wind speed is lower than the cut-in speed or higher than the cut-out speed. The output variable in the case study is the lifetime energy production. Most influential factors for lifetime energy production are identified with the ranking of the total effect sensitivity indices. The results of the present research show that the brute force method is best for wind assessment purpose, SBSS outperforms other sampling strategies in the majority of cases. The results indicate that the Weibull scale parameter, turbine lifetime and Weibull shape parameter are the three most influential variables in the case study setting. The following conclusions can be drawn from these results: 1) SBSS should be recommended for use in Monte Carlo experiments, 2) The brute force method should be recommended for conducting sensitivity analysis in wind resource assessment, and 3) Little variation in the Weibull scale causes significant variation in energy production. The presence of the two distribution parameters in the top three influential variables (the Weibull shape and scale) emphasizes the importance of accuracy of (a) choosing the distribution to model wind regime at a site and (b) estimating probability distribution parameters. This can be labeled as the most important conclusion of this research because it opens a field for further research, which the authors see could change the wind energy field tremendously.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Effect of Grain Refinement and Cooling Rate on the Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Secondary Al-Si-Cu Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timelli, Giulio; Camicia, Giordano; Ferraro, Stefano

2014-02-01

The effect of AlTi5B1 grain refinement and different solidification rates on metallurgical and mechanical properties of a secondary AlSi7Cu3Mg alloy is reported. While the Ti content ranges from 0.04 up to 0.225 wt.%, the cooling rate varies between 0.1 and 5.5 °C/s. Metallographic and thermal analysis techniques have been used to quantitatively examine the macro- and microstructural changes occurring with grain refiner addition at various cooling rates. The results indicate that a small AlTi5B1 addition produces the greatest refinement, while no significant reduction of grain size is obtained with a great amount of grain refiner. On increasing the cooling rate, a lower amount of AlTi5B1 master alloy is necessary to produce a uniform grain size throughout the casting. The combined addition of AlTi5B1 and Sr does not produce any reciprocal interaction or effect on primary α-Al and eutectic solidification. The grain refinement improves the plastic behavior of the alloy and increases the reliability of castings, as evidenced by the Weibull statistics.

Fishnet statistics for probabilistic strength and scaling of nacreous imbricated lamellar materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Wen; Bažant, Zdeněk P.

2017-12-01

Similar to nacre (or brick masonry), imbricated (or staggered) lamellar structures are widely found in nature and man-made materials, and are of interest for biomimetics. They can achieve high defect insensitivity and fracture toughness, as demonstrated in previous studies. But the probability distribution with a realistic far-left tail is apparently unknown. Here, strictly for statistical purposes, the microstructure of nacre is approximated by a diagonally pulled fishnet with quasibrittle links representing the shear bonds between parallel lamellae (or platelets). The probability distribution of fishnet strength is calculated as a sum of a rapidly convergent series of the failure probabilities after the rupture of one, two, three, etc., links. Each of them represents a combination of joint probabilities and of additive probabilities of disjoint events, modified near the zone of failed links by the stress redistributions caused by previously failed links. Based on previous nano- and multi-scale studies at Northwestern, the strength distribution of each link, characterizing the interlamellar shear bond, is assumed to be a Gauss-Weibull graft, but with a deeper Weibull tail than in Type 1 failure of non-imbricated quasibrittle materials. The autocorrelation length is considered equal to the link length. The size of the zone of failed links at maximum load increases with the coefficient of variation (CoV) of link strength, and also with fishnet size. With an increasing width-to-length aspect ratio, a rectangular fishnet gradually transits from the weakest-link chain to the fiber bundle, as the limit cases. The fishnet strength at failure probability 10-6 grows with the width-to-length ratio. For a square fishnet boundary, the strength at 10-6 failure probability is about 11% higher, while at fixed load the failure probability is about 25-times higher than it is for the non-imbricated case. This is a major safety advantage of the fishnet architecture over particulate or fiber reinforced materials. There is also a strong size effect, partly similar to that of Type 1 while the curves of log-strength versus log-size for different sizes could cross each other. The predicted behavior is verified by about a million Monte Carlo simulations for each of many fishnet geometries, sizes and CoVs of link strength. In addition to the weakest-link or fiber bundle, the fishnet becomes the third analytically tractable statistical model of structural strength, and has the former two as limit cases.

On Weibull's Spectrum of Nonrelativistic Energetic Particles at IP Shocks: Observations and Theoretical Interpretation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pallocchia, G.; Laurenza, M.; Consolini, G.

2017-03-10

Some interplanetary shocks are associated with short-term and sharp particle flux enhancements near the shock front. Such intensity enhancements, known as shock-spike events (SSEs), represent a class of relatively energetic phenomena as they may extend to energies of some tens of MeV or even beyond. Here we present an SSE case study in order to shed light on the nature of the particle acceleration involved in this kind of event. Our observations refer to an SSE registered on 2011 October 3 at 22:23 UT, by STEREO B instrumentation when, at a heliocentric distance of 1.08 au, the spacecraft was sweptmore » by a perpendicular shock moving away from the Sun. The main finding from the data analysis is that a Weibull distribution represents a good fitting function to the measured particle spectrum over the energy range from 0.1 to 30 MeV. To interpret such an observational result, we provide a theoretical derivation of the Weibull spectrum in the framework of the acceleration by “killed” stochastic processes exhibiting power-law growth in time of the velocity expectation, such as the classical Fermi process. We find an overall coherence between the experimental values of the Weibull spectrum parameters and their physical meaning within the above scenario. Hence, our approach based on the Weibull distribution proves to be useful for understanding SSEs. With regard to the present event, we also provide an alternative explanation of the Weibull spectrum in terms of shock-surfing acceleration.« less

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2013-01-01

A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): Weibull analysis report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raffaelli, Gary G.

1987-01-01

The Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) and Hydraulic Power Unit (HPU) Space Shuttle Subsystems were reviewed as candidates for demonstrating the Weibull analysis methodology. Three hardware components were identified as analysis candidates: the turbine wheel, the gearbox, and the gas generator. Detailed review of subsystem level wearout and failure history revealed the lack of actual component failure data. In addition, component wearout data were not readily available or would require a separate data accumulation effort by the vendor. Without adequate component history data being available, the Weibull analysis methodology application to the APU and HPU subsystem group was terminated.

A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

PubMed

Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

2015-09-01

Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Weibull-Based Design Methodology for Rotating Aircraft Engine Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry

2002-01-01

The NASA Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)-Engine) is used as the basis of a Weibull-based life and reliability analysis. Each component's life and thus the engine's life is defined by high-cycle fatigue (HCF) or low-cycle fatigue (LCF). Knowing the cumulative life distribution of each of the components making up the engine as represented by a Weibull slope is a prerequisite to predicting the life and reliability of the entire engine. As the engine Weibull slope increases, the predicted lives decrease. The predicted engine lives L(sub 5) (95 % probability of survival) of approximately 17,000 and 32,000 hr do correlate with current engine maintenance practices without and with refurbishment. respectively. The individual high pressure turbine (HPT) blade lives necessary to obtain a blade system life L(sub 0.1) (99.9 % probability of survival) of 9000 hr for Weibull slopes of 3, 6 and 9, are 47,391 and 20,652 and 15,658 hr, respectively. For a design life of the HPT disks having probable points of failure equal to or greater than 36,000 hr at a probability of survival of 99.9 %, the predicted disk system life L(sub 0.1) can vary from 9,408 to 24,911 hr.

Cure modeling in real-time prediction: How much does it help?

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Zhang, Qiang; Lan, Yu; Li, Yimei; Heitjan, Daniel F

2017-08-01

Various parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches exist for real-time prediction in time-to-event clinical trials. Recently, Chen (2016 BMC Biomedical Research Methodology 16) proposed a prediction method based on parametric cure-mixture modeling, intending to cover those situations where it appears that a non-negligible fraction of subjects is cured. In this article we apply a Weibull cure-mixture model to create predictions, demonstrating the approach in RTOG 0129, a randomized trial in head-and-neck cancer. We compare the ultimate realized data in RTOG 0129 to interim predictions from a Weibull cure-mixture model, a standard Weibull model without a cure component, and a nonparametric model based on the Bayesian bootstrap. The standard Weibull model predicted that events would occur earlier than the Weibull cure-mixture model, but the difference was unremarkable until late in the trial when evidence for a cure became clear. Nonparametric predictions often gave undefined predictions or infinite prediction intervals, particularly at early stages of the trial. Simulations suggest that cure modeling can yield better-calibrated prediction intervals when there is a cured component, or the appearance of a cured component, but at a substantial cost in the average width of the intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the mean and standard deviation of environmental data with below detection limit observations: Considering highly skewed data and model misspecification.

PubMed

Shoari, Niloofar; Dubé, Jean-Sébastien; Chenouri, Shoja'eddin

2015-11-01

In environmental studies, concentration measurements frequently fall below detection limits of measuring instruments, resulting in left-censored data. Some studies employ parametric methods such as the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), robust regression on order statistic (rROS), and gamma regression on order statistic (GROS), while others suggest a non-parametric approach, the Kaplan-Meier method (KM). Using examples of real data from a soil characterization study in Montreal, we highlight the need for additional investigations that aim at unifying the existing literature. A number of studies have examined this issue; however, those considering data skewness and model misspecification are rare. These aspects are investigated in this paper through simulations. Among other findings, results show that for low skewed data, the performance of different statistical methods is comparable, regardless of the censoring percentage and sample size. For highly skewed data, the performance of the MLE method under lognormal and Weibull distributions is questionable; particularly, when the sample size is small or censoring percentage is high. In such conditions, MLE under gamma distribution, rROS, GROS, and KM are less sensitive to skewness. Related to model misspecification, MLE based on lognormal and Weibull distributions provides poor estimates when the true distribution of data is misspecified. However, the methods of rROS, GROS, and MLE under gamma distribution are generally robust to model misspecifications regardless of skewness, sample size, and censoring percentage. Since the characteristics of environmental data (e.g., type of distribution and skewness) are unknown a priori, we suggest using MLE based on gamma distribution, rROS and GROS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of sodium hypochlorite and saline on cyclic fatigue resistance of WaveOne Gold and Reciproc reciprocating instruments.

PubMed

Elnaghy, A M; Elsaka, S E

2017-10-01

To compare the cyclic fatigue resistance of WaveOne Gold (Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties, Tulsa, OK, USA) and Reciproc (VDW, Munich, Germany) reciprocating instruments during immersion in sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) and saline solutions at body temperature. A total of 180 new WaveOne Gold primary size 25, .07 taper, and Reciproc size 25, .08 taper were randomly divided into three groups: group 1: no immersion (control, air); group 2: immersion in saline at 37 ± 1 °C; and group 3: immersion in 5% NaOCl at 37 ± 1 °C. The instruments were reciprocated in the test solution until fracture, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. The data were analysed statistically using t-tests and one-way analysis of variance (anova) with the significance level set at P < 0.05. A Weibull analysis was performed on number of cycles to failure data. WaveOne Gold instruments had significantly greater number of cycles to failure than Reciproc instruments in all groups (P < 0.001). Fatigue resistance for both instruments tested in air was significantly higher than that in saline and NaOCl solutions (P < 0.001). For both instruments, there was no significant difference in the fatigue resistance between saline and NaOCl solutions (P > 0.05). The Weibull analysis showed that the predicted cycles of WaveOne Gold in air was 1027 cycles for 99% survival. However, Reciproc instruments tested in NaOCl solution had the lowest predicted cycles (613 cycles) among the groups. Immersion of WaveOne Gold and Reciproc reciprocating instruments in saline and NaOCl solutions decreased considerably their cyclic fatigue resistance. The fatigue resistance of WaveOne Gold instruments was higher than that of Reciproc instruments. © 2016 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Size Effects on Deformation and Fracture of Scandium Deuteride Films.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teresi, C. S.; Hintsala, E.; Adams, David P.

Metal hydride films have been observed to crack during production and use, prompting mechanical property studies of scandium deuteride films. The following focuses on elastic modulus, fracture, and size effects observed in the system for future film mechanical behavior modeling efforts. Scandium deuteride films were produced through the deuterium charging of electron beam evaporated scandium films using X-ray diffraction, scanning Auger microscopy, and electron backscatter diffraction to monitor changes in the films before and after charging. Scanning electron microscopy, nanoindentation, and focused ion beam machined micropillar compression tests were used for mechanical characterization of the scandium deuteride films. The micropillarsmore » showed a size effect for flow stress, indicating that film thickness is a relevant tuning parameter for film performance, and that fracture was controlled by the presence of grain boundaries. Elastic modulus was determined by both micropillar compression and nanoindentation to be approximately 150 GPa, Fracture studies of bulk film channel cracking as well as compression induced cracks in some of the pillars yielded a fracture toughness around 1.0 MPa-m1/2. Preliminary Weibull distributions of fracture in the micropillars are provided. Despite this relatively low value of fracture toughness, scandium deuteride micropillars can undergo a large degree of plasticity in small volumes and can harden to some degree, demonstrating the ductile and brittle nature of this material« less

Determination of thermal inactivation kinetics of hepatitis A virus in blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) homogenate.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2014-05-01

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is a food-borne enteric virus responsible for outbreaks of hepatitis associated with shellfish consumption. The objectives of this study were to determine the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV in blue mussels, to compare the first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, to calculate Arrhenius activation energy for each model, and to evaluate model efficiency by using selected statistical criteria. The times required to reduce the population by 1 log cycle (D-values) calculated from the first-order model (50 to 72°C) ranged from 1.07 to 54.17 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the times required to destroy 1 log unit (tD = 1) of HAV at the same temperatures were 1.57 to 37.91 min. At 72°C, the treatment times required to achieve a 6-log reduction were 7.49 min for the first-order model and 8.47 min for the Weibull model. The z-values (changes in temperature required for a 90% change in the log D-values) calculated for HAV were 15.88 ± 3.97°C (R(2), 0.94) with the Weibull model and 12.97 ± 0.59°C (R(2), 0.93) with the first-order model. The calculated activation energies for the first-order model and the Weibull model were 165 and 153 kJ/mol, respectively. The results revealed that the Weibull model was more appropriate for representing the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV in blue mussels. Correct understanding of the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV could allow precise determination of the thermal process conditions to prevent food-borne viral outbreaks associated with the consumption of contaminated mussels.

A Revised Similarity Law in Botanic Describes the Genesis of the Vulnerability Curve Shape in Vascular Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mrad, A.; Domec, J. C.; Huang, C. W.; Katul, G. G.

2017-12-01

Xylem tissues are specialized in offering the least possible resistance to water flow. However, this is not guaranteed when ascending sap reaches large negative pressures during periods of water stress when embolism within the xylem occurs, an inevitable step toward potential drought-induced mortality. Ongoing research into changing forest patterns and plant survival due to droughts rarely dispute the significance of Vulnerability Curves (VCs), plots that feature loss in relative conductance with declining liquid pressure (ψ). While Earth-Systems models routinely employ various VC functions, the theoretical underpinnings describing their shape remains lacking. VCs are the outcome of microscopic phenomena describing embolism formation, bubble-scale xylem properties allowing embolism spread, and hydraulic processes that dictate the water potential along the flow path. The work here explores how the upscaled version of these gives rise to popular mathematical shapes used to describe VC measurements: The Logistic and Weibull exceedance equations. Each of these two captures a distinct type of embolism spread: The Logistic VC arises when the probability that embolized vessels interact with intact ones describe embolism spread as water pressure decreases (labeled as a similarity law in botanic [1]). The Weibull VC arises when the aforementioned description includes the effects of ψ explicitly. Variability in xylem properties along the flow path is explored analytically using novel approaches borrowed from `super-statistics' and numerical simulations. The numerical simulations intend to single out which xylem network property is significant in describing the VC shape. The model results corroborate previous research (experimental and 3-dimensional high-resolution simulations) on the effect of vessel size and network topology. It is shown that (i) initial embolism locations alter air-seeding pressure and VC slope; (ii) redundancy and size variations decrease bubble propagation probability with decreasing ψ; and (iii) varying network properties spatially along the flow path delays total loss of conductance. The implications of these findings to linking VC shape to plant traits and the on-going debate about `r' vs `s' shape VCs are highlighted.

Weibull models of fracture strengths and fatigue behavior of dental resins in flexure and shear.

PubMed

Baran, G R; McCool, J I; Paul, D; Boberick, K; Wunder, S

1998-01-01

In estimating lifetimes of dental restorative materials, it is useful to have available data on the fatigue behavior of these materials. Current efforts at estimation include several untested assumptions related to the equivalence of flaw distributions sampled by shear, tensile, and compressive stresses. Environmental influences on material properties are not accounted for, and it is unclear if fatigue limits exist. In this study, the shear and flexural strengths of three resins used as matrices in dental restorative composite materials were characterized by Weibull parameters. It was found that shear strengths were lower than flexural strengths, liquid sorption had a profound effect on characteristic strengths, and the Weibull shape parameter obtained from shear data differed for some materials from that obtained in flexure. In shear and flexural fatigue, a power law relationship applied for up to 250,000 cycles; no fatigue limits were found, and the data thus imply only one flaw population is responsible for failure. Again, liquid sorption adversely affected strength levels in most materials (decreasing shear strengths and flexural strengths by factors of 2-3) and to a greater extent than did the degree of cure or material chemistry.

Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poplawski, Joseph V.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Peters, Steven M.

2000-01-01

Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

Lifetime assessment by intermittent inspection under the mixture Weibull power law model with application to XLPE cables.

PubMed

Hirose, H

1997-01-01

This paper proposes a new treatment for electrical insulation degradation. Some types of insulation which have been used under various circumstances are considered to degrade at various rates in accordance with their stress circumstances. The cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulated cables inspected by major Japanese electric companies clearly indicate such phenomena. By assuming that the inspected specimen is sampled from one of the clustered groups, a mixed degradation model can be constructed. Since the degradation of the insulation under common circumstances is considered to follow a Weibull distribution, a mixture model and a Weibull power law can be combined. This is called The mixture Weibull power law model. By using the maximum likelihood estimation for the newly proposed model to Japanese 22 and 33 kV insulation class cables, they are clustered into a certain number of groups by using the AIC and the generalized likelihood ratio test method. The reliability of the cables at specified years are assessed.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters, Batdorf flaw density constants and related statistical quantities using PC-CARES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szatmary, Steven A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1990-01-01

This manual describes the operation and theory of the PC-CARES (Personal Computer-Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program for the IBM PC and compatibles running PC-DOS/MS-DOR OR IBM/MS-OS/2 (version 1.1 or higher) operating systems. The primary purpose of this code is to estimate Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities. Included in the manual is the description of the calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. The methods for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull line, as well as the techniques for calculating the Batdorf flaw-density constants are also described.

Multiscale Simulation of Porous Ceramics Based on Movable Cellular Automaton Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolin, A.; Smolin, I.; Eremina, G.; Smolina, I.

2017-10-01

The paper presents a model for simulating mechanical behaviour of multiscale porous ceramics based on movable cellular automaton method, which is a novel particle method in computational mechanics of solid. The initial scale of the proposed approach corresponds to the characteristic size of the smallest pores in the ceramics. At this scale, we model uniaxial compression of several representative samples with an explicit account of pores of the same size but with the random unique position in space. As a result, we get the average values of Young’s modulus and strength, as well as the parameters of the Weibull distribution of these properties at the current scale level. These data allow us to describe the material behaviour at the next scale level were only the larger pores are considered explicitly, while the influence of small pores is included via the effective properties determined at the previous scale level. If the pore size distribution function of the material has N maxima we need to perform computations for N - 1 levels in order to get the properties from the lowest scale up to the macroscale step by step. The proposed approach was applied to modelling zirconia ceramics with bimodal pore size distribution. The obtained results show correct behaviour of the model sample at the macroscale.

Determining the parameters of Weibull function to estimate the wind power potential in conditions of limited source meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fetisova, Yu. A.; Ermolenko, B. V.; Ermolenko, G. V.; Kiseleva, S. V.

2017-04-01

We studied the information basis for the assessment of wind power potential on the territory of Russia. We described the methodology to determine the parameters of the Weibull function, which reflects the density of distribution of probabilities of wind flow speeds at a defined basic height above the surface of the earth using the available data on the average speed at this height and its repetition by gradations. The application of the least square method for determining these parameters, unlike the use of graphical methods, allows performing a statistical assessment of the results of approximation of empirical histograms by the Weibull formula. On the basis of the computer-aided analysis of the statistical data, it was shown that, at a fixed point where the wind speed changes at different heights, the range of parameter variation of the Weibull distribution curve is relatively small, the sensitivity of the function to parameter changes is quite low, and the influence of changes on the shape of speed distribution curves is negligible. Taking this into consideration, we proposed and mathematically verified the methodology of determining the speed parameters of the Weibull function at other heights using the parameter computations for this function at a basic height, which is known or defined by the average speed of wind flow, or the roughness coefficient of the geological substrate. We gave examples of practical application of the suggested methodology in the development of the Atlas of Renewable Energy Resources in Russia in conditions of deficiency of source meteorological data. The proposed methodology, to some extent, may solve the problem related to the lack of information on the vertical profile of repeatability of the wind flow speeds in the presence of a wide assortment of wind turbines with different ranges of wind-wheel axis heights and various performance characteristics in the global market; as a result, this methodology can become a powerful tool for effective selection of equipment in the process of designing a power supply system in a certain location.

Analysis of stratocumulus cloud fields using LANDSAT imagery: Size distributions and spatial separations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, R. M.; Sengupta, S. K.; Chen, D. W.

1990-01-01

Stratocumulus cloud fields in the FIRE IFO region are analyzed using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper imagery. Structural properties such as cloud cell size distribution, cell horizontal aspect ratio, fractional coverage and fractal dimension are determined. It is found that stratocumulus cloud number densities are represented by a power law. Cell horizontal aspect ratio has a tendency to increase at large cell sizes, and cells are bi-fractal in nature. Using LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner imagery for twelve selected stratocumulus scenes acquired during previous years, similar structural characteristics are obtained. Cloud field spatial organization also is analyzed. Nearest-neighbor spacings are fit with a number of functions, with Weibull and Gamma distributions providing the best fits. Poisson tests show that the spatial separations are not random. Second order statistics are used to examine clustering.

Performance of mixed RF/FSO systems in exponentiated Weibull distributed channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jing; Zhao, Shang-Hong; Zhao, Wei-Hu; Liu, Yun; Li, Xuan

2017-12-01

This paper presented the performances of asymmetric mixed radio frequency (RF)/free-space optical (FSO) system with the amplify-and-forward relaying scheme. The RF channel undergoes Nakagami- m channel, and the Exponentiated Weibull distribution is adopted for the FSO component. The mathematical formulas for cumulative distribution function (CDF), probability density function (PDF) and moment generating function (MGF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are achieved. According to the end-to-end statistical characteristics, the new analytical expressions of outage probability are obtained. Under various modulation techniques, we derive the average bit-error-rate (BER) based on the Meijer's G function. The evaluation and simulation are provided for the system performance, and the aperture average effect is discussed as well.

Emperical Tests of Acceptance Sampling Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, K. Preston, Jr.; Johnson, Kenneth L.

2012-01-01

Acceptance sampling is a quality control procedure applied as an alternative to 100% inspection. A random sample of items is drawn from a lot to determine the fraction of items which have a required quality characteristic. Both the number of items to be inspected and the criterion for determining conformance of the lot to the requirement are given by an appropriate sampling plan with specified risks of Type I and Type II sampling errors. In this paper, we present the results of empirical tests of the accuracy of selected sampling plans reported in the literature. These plans are for measureable quality characteristics which are known have either binomial, exponential, normal, gamma, Weibull, inverse Gaussian, or Poisson distributions. In the main, results support the accepted wisdom that variables acceptance plans are superior to attributes (binomial) acceptance plans, in the sense that these provide comparable protection against risks at reduced sampling cost. For the Gaussian and Weibull plans, however, there are ranges of the shape parameters for which the required sample sizes are in fact larger than the corresponding attributes plans, dramatically so for instances of large skew. Tests further confirm that the published inverse-Gaussian (IG) plan is flawed, as reported by White and Johnson (2011).

Fracture of Reduced-Diameter Zirconia Dental Implants Following Repeated Insertion.

PubMed

Karl, Matthias; Scherg, Stefan; Grobecker-Karl, Tanja

Achievement of high insertion torque values indicating good primary stability is a goal during dental implant placement. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether or not two-piece implants made from zirconia ceramic may be damaged as a result of torque application. A total of 10 two-piece zirconia implants were repeatedly inserted into polyurethane foam material with increasing density and decreasing osteotomy size. The insertion torque applied was measured, and implants were checked for fractures by applying the fluorescent penetrant method. Weibull probability of failure was calculated based on the recorded insertion torque values. Catastrophic failures could be seen in five of the implants from two different batches at insertion torques ranging from 46.0 to 70.5 Ncm, while the remaining implants (all belonging to one batch) survived. Weibull probability of failure seems to be low at the manufacturer-recommended maximum insertion torque of 35 Ncm. Chipping fractures at the thread tips as well as tool marks were the only otherwise observed irregularities. While high insertion torques may be desirable for immediate loading protocols, zirconia implants may fracture when manufacturer-recommended insertion torques are exceeded. Evaluating bone quality prior to implant insertion may be useful.

Pectin methyl esterase and natural microflora of fresh mixed orange and carrot juice treated with pulsed electric fields.

PubMed

Rodrigo, D; Barbosa-Cánovas, G V; Martínez, A; Rodrigo, M

2003-12-01

The effects of pulsed electric fields (PEFs) on pectin methyl esterase (PME), molds and yeast, and total flora in fresh (nonpasteurized) mixed orange and carrot juice were studied. The PEF effect was more extensive when juices with high levels of initial PME activity were subjected to treatment and when PEF treatment (at 25 kV/cm for 340 micros) was combined with a moderate temperature (63 degrees C), with the maximum level of PME inactivation being 81.4%. These conditions produced 3.7 decimal reductions in molds and yeast and 2.4 decimal reductions in total flora. Experimental inactivation data for PME, molds and yeast, and total flora were fitted to Bigelow, Hülsheger, and Weibull inactivation models by nonlinear regression. The best fit (lowest mean square error) was obtained with the Weibull model.

Performance analysis for mixed FSO/RF Nakagami-m and Exponentiated Weibull dual-hop airborne systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Zhao; Shang-hong, Zhao; Wei-hu, Zhao; Ke-fan, Chen

2017-06-01

In this paper, the performances of mixed free-space optical (FSO)/radio frequency (RF) systems are presented based on the decode-and-forward relaying. The Exponentiated Weibull fading channel with pointing error effect is adopted for the atmospheric fluctuation of FSO channel and the RF link undergoes the Nakagami-m fading. We derived the analytical expression for cumulative distribution function (CDF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The novel mathematical presentations of outage probability and average bit-error-rate (BER) are developed based on the Meijer's G function. The analytical results show an accurately match to the Monte-Carlo simulation results. The outage and BER performance for the mixed system by decode-and-forward relay are investigated considering atmospheric turbulence and pointing error condition. The effect of aperture averaging is evaluated in all atmospheric turbulence conditions as well.

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Brikmanis, C. K.; Lewicki, D. G.; Coy, J. J.

1985-01-01

A reliability model is presented for bevel gear reductions with either a single input pinion or dual input pinions of equal size. The dual pinions may or may not have the same power applied for the analysis. The gears may be straddle mounted or supported in a bearing quill. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distribution. The reduction's basic dynamic capacity is defined as the output torque which may be applied for one million output rotations of the bevel gear with a 90 percent probability of reduction survival.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN STRATEGY FOR THE WEIBULL DOSE RESPONSE MODEL (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of the research was to determine optimum design point allocation for estimation of relative yield losses from ozone pollution when the true and fitted yield-ozone dose response relationship follows the Weibull. The optimum design is dependent on the values of the We...

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1992-01-01

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.

2007-08-01

The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These statistics are particularly important for earthquakes. For earthquakes it is important to make a distinction between interoccurrence and recurrence times. Interoccurrence times are the interval times between earthquakes on all faults in a region whereas recurrence times are interval times between earthquakes on a single fault or fault segment. In many, but not all cases, interoccurrence time statistics are exponential (Poissonian) and the events occur randomly. However, the distribution of recurrence times are often Weibull to a good approximation. In this paper we study the interval statistics of slip events using a slider-block model. The behavior of this model is sensitive to the stiffness α of the system, α=kC/kL where kC is the spring constant of the connector springs and kL is the spring constant of the loader plate springs. For a soft system (small α) there are no system-wide events and interoccurrence time statistics of the larger events are Poissonian. For a stiff system (large α), system-wide events dominate the energy dissipation and the statistics of the recurrence times between these system-wide events satisfy the Weibull distribution to a good approximation. We argue that this applicability of the Weibull distribution is due to the power-law (scale invariant) behavior of the hazard function, i.e. the probability that the next event will occur at a time t0 after the last event has a power-law dependence on t0. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale invariant hazard function. We further show that the onset of system-wide events is a well defined critical point. We find that the number of system-wide events NSWE satisfies the scaling relation NSWE ∝(α-αC)δ where αC is the critical value of the stiffness. The system-wide events represent a new phase for the slider-block system.

Mechanical reliability, fatigue strength and survival analysis of new polycrystalline translucent zirconia ceramics for monolithic restorations.

PubMed

Pereira, Gabriel K R; Guilardi, Luís F; Dapieve, Kiara S; Kleverlaan, Cornelis J; Rippe, Marília P; Valandro, Luiz Felipe

2018-05-23

This study characterized the mechanical properties (static and under fatigue), the crystalline microstructure (monoclinic - m, tetragonal - t and cubic - c phase contents) and the surface topography of three yttrium-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) materials with different translucent properties, before and after aging in an autoclave (low temperature degradation). Disc-shaped specimens were produced from second generation (Katana ML/HT - high-translucent) and third generations (Katana STML - super-translucent and UTML - ultra-translucent) YSZ ceramics (Kuraray Noritake Dental Inc.), following ISO 6872-2015 guidelines for biaxial flexural strength testing (final dimensions: 15 mm in diameter and 1.2 ± 0.2 mm in thickness), and then subjected to the respective tests and analyses. ML was mainly composed of tetragonal crystals, while STML and UTML presented cubic content. Aging increased the monoclinic content for ML and did not affect STML and UTML. Topographical analysis highlights different grain sizes on the ceramic surface (UTML > STML > ML) and aging had no effect on this outcome. Weibull analysis showed the highest characteristic strength for ML both before and after aging, and statistically similar Weibull moduli for all groups. ML material also obtained the highest survival rates (ML > STML > UTML) for both fatigue strength and number of cycles to failure. All fractures originated from surface defects on the tensile side. Third generation zirconia (Katana STML and UTML) are fully stabilized materials (with tetragonal and cubic crystals), being totally inert to the autoclave aging, and presented lower mechanical properties than the second-generation zirconia (Katana ML - metastable zirconia). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of temperature on water diffusion during rehydration of sun-dried red pepper ( Capsicum annuum L.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demiray, Engin; Tulek, Yahya

2017-05-01

Rehydration, which is a complex process aimed at the restoration of raw material properties when dried material comes in contact with water. In the present research, studies were conducted to probe the kinetics of rehydration of sun-dried red peppers. The kinetics associated with rehydrating sun-dried red peppers was studied at three different temperatures (25, 35 and 45 °C). To describe the rehydration kinetics, four different models, Peleg's, Weibull, first order and exponential association, were considered. Between these four models proposed Weibull model gave a better fit for all rehydration conditions applied. The effective moisture diffusivity values of red peppers increased as water rehydration temperature increased. The values of the effective moisture diffusivity of red peppers were in the range 1.37 × 10-9-1.48 × 10-9 m2 s-1. On the other hand, the activation energy for rehydration kinetic was also calculated using Arrhenius equation and found as 3.17 kJ mol-1.

On the gap between an empirical distribution and an exponential distribution of waiting times for price changes in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya

2007-03-01

We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high-frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well approximated by a Weibull distribution rather than an exponential distribution in the non-asymptotic regime. Moreover, we quantitatively evaluate how much an empirical data is far from an exponential distribution using a Weibull fit. Finally, we discuss a transition between a Weibull-law and a power-law in the long time asymptotic regime.

Fracture toughness of irradiated modified 9Cr-1Mo steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sung Ho; Yoon, Ji-Hyun; Ryu, Woo Seog; Lee, Chan Bock; Hong, Jun Hwa

2009-04-01

The effects of irradiation on fracture toughness of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel in the transition region were investigated. Half size precracked Charpy specimens were irradiated up to 1.2 × 10 21n/cm 2 ( E > 0.1 MeV) at 340 °C and 400 °C in the Korean research reactor. The irradiation induced transition temperature shift for a modified 9Cr-1Mo was evaluated by using the Master Curve methodology. The T0 temperature for the unirradiated specimens were measured as -67.7 °C and -72.4 °C from the tests with standard PCVN (precracked charpy V-notch) and half sized PCVN specimens, respectively. The T0 shifts of specimens after irradiation at 340 °C and 400 °C were 70.7 °C and 66.1 °C, respectively. The Weibull slopes for the fracture toughness data obtained from the unirradiated and irradiated modified 9Cr-1Mo steels were determined to confirm the applicability of master curve methodology to modified 9Cr-1Mo steel.

Comparative study of flexural strength test methods on CAD/CAM Y-TZP dental ceramics

PubMed Central

Xu, Yongxiang; Han, Jianmin; Lin, Hong; An, Linan

2015-01-01

Clinically, fractures are the main cause of computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) 3 mol%-yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystal (Y-TZP) all-ceramic dental restorations failure because of repetitive occlusal loading. The goal of this work is to study the effect of test methods and specimen’s size on the flexural strength of five ceramic products. Both bi-axial flexure test (BI) and uni-axial flexure tests (UNI), including three-point flexure test (3PF) and four-point flexure test (4PF), are used in this study. For all five products, the flexural strength is as follows: BI > 3PF > 4PF. Furthermore, specimens with smaller size (3PF-s) have higher values than the bigger ones (3PF). The difference between BI and UNI resulted from the edge flaws in ceramic specimens. The relationship between different UNI (including 3PF-s, 3PF and 4PF) can be explained according to Weibull statistical fracture theory. BI is recommended to evaluate the flexural strength of CAD/CAM Y-TZP dental ceramics. PMID:26816646

Strength of a Ceramic Sectored Flexure Specimen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, Andrew A; Duffy, Stephen F; Baker, E. H.

2008-01-01

A new test specimen, defined here as the "sectored flexure strength specimen", was developed to measure the strength of ceramic tubes specifically for circumstances when flaws located at the tube's outer diameter are the strength-limiter and subjected to axial tension. The understanding of such strength-limitation is relevant for when ceramic tubes are subjected to bending or when the internal temperature is hotter than the tube's exterior (e.g., heat exchangers). The specimen is both economically and statistically attractive because eight specimens (eight in the case of this project - but the user is not necessarily limited to eight) were extracted outmore » of each length of tube. An analytic expression for maximum or failure stress, and relationships portraying effective area and effective volume as a function of Weibull modulus were developed. Lastly, it was proven from the testing of two ceramics that the sectored flexure specimen was very effective at producing failures caused by strength-limiting flaws located on the tube's original outer diameter. Keywords: ceramics, strength, sectored flexure specimen, effective area, effective volume, finite-element analysis, Weibull distribution, and fractography.« less

An evaluation of percentile and maximum likelihood estimators of weibull paremeters

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Tommy R. Dell

1985-01-01

Two methods of estimating the three-parameter Weibull distribution were evaluated by computer simulation and field data comparison. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLB) with bias correction were calculated with the computer routine FITTER (Bailey 1974); percentile estimators (PCT) were those proposed by Zanakis (1979). The MLB estimators had superior smaller bias and...

Mortality profiles of Rhodnius prolixus (Heteroptera: Reduviidae), vector of Chagas disease.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Hernandez, Maria-Josefina; Revilla, Tomás A; Rodríguez, Diego J; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2004-10-01

Life table data of Rhodnius prolixus (Heteroptera: Reduviidae) kept at laboratory conditions were analysed in search for mortality patterns. Gompertz and Weibull mortality models seem adequate to explain the sigmoid shape of the survivorship curve. A significant fit was obtained with both models for females (R(2) = 0.70, P < 0.0005 for the Gompertz model; R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.0005 for the Weibull model) and for males (R(2) = 0.39, P < 0.0005 for the Gompertz model; R(2) = 0.48, P < 0.0005 for the Weibull model). The mortality parameter (b) is higher for females in Gompertz and Weibull models, using smoothed and non-smoothed data (P < 0.05), revealing a significant sex mortality differential. Given the particular life history of this insect, the non-linear relationship between the force of mortality and age may have an important impact in the vectorial capacity of R. prolixus as Chagas disease vector, and its consideration should be included as an important factor in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi by triatomines.

Weibull thermodynamics: Subexponential decay in the energy spectrum of cosmic-ray nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaschitz, Roman

2017-10-01

The spectral number density of cosmic-ray nuclei is shown to be a multiply broken power law with subexponential spectral cutoff. To this end, a spectral fit is performed to data sets covering the 1GeV - 1011GeV interval of the all-particle cosmic-ray spectrum. The flux points of the ultra-high energy spectral tail measured with the Telescope Array indicate a Weibull cutoff exp(-(E /(kB T)) σ) and permit a precise determination of the cutoff temperature kB T =(2 . 5 ± 0 . 1) × 1010 GeV and the spectral index σ = 0 . 66 ± 0 . 02. Based on the spectral number density inferred from the least-squares fit, the thermodynamics of this stationary non-equilibrium system, a multi-component mixture of relativistic nuclei, is developed. The derivative of entropy with respect to internal energy defines the effective temperature of the nuclei, S,U = 1 /Teff ,kBTeff ≈ 16 . 1 GeV, and the functional dependence between the cutoff temperature in the Weibull exponential and the effective gas temperature is determined. The equipartition ratio is found to be U /(NkBTeff) ≈ 0 . 30. The isochoric and isobaric heat capacities of the nuclear gas are calculated, as well as the isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities and the isobaric expansion coefficient, and it is shown that this non-equilibrated relativistic gas mixture satisfies the thermodynamic inequalities 0

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1989-01-01

The development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines is studied. Injection molding was the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals were to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in four-point loading. Statistically designed experiments were performed throughout the program and a fluid mixing process employing an attritor mixer was developed. Compositional improvements in the amounts and sources of boron and carbon used and a pressureless sintering cycle were developed which provided samples of about 99 percent of theoretical density. Strengths were found to improve significantly by annealing in air. Strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) with Weibull modulus of about 9 were obtained. Further improvements in Weibull modulus to about 16 were realized by proof testing. This is an increase of 86 percent in strength and 100 percent in Weibull modulus over the baseline data generated at the beginning of the program. Molding yields were improved and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. Magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectra were found to be useful in characterizing the SiC powder and the sintered samples. Turbocharger rotors were molded and examined as an indication of the moldability of the mixes which were developed in this program.

Thermal inactivation kinetics of hepatitis A virus in homogenized clam meat (Mercenaria mercenaria).

PubMed

Bozkurt, H; D'Souza, D H; Davidson, P M

2015-09-01

Epidemiological evidence suggests that hepatitis A virus (HAV) is the most common pathogen transmitted by bivalve molluscs such as clams, cockles, mussels and oysters. This study aimed to generate thermal inactivation kinetics for HAV as a first step to design adequate thermal processes to control clam-associated HAV outbreaks. Survivor curves and thermal death curves were generated for different treatment times (0-6 min) at different temperatures (50-72°C) and Weibull and first-order models were compared. D-values for HAV ranged from 47·37 ± 1·23 to 1·55 ± 0·12 min for the first-order model and 64·43 ± 3·47 to 1·25 ± 0·45 min for the Weibull model at temperatures from 50 to 72°C. z-Values for HAV in clams were 12·97 ± 0·59°C and 14·83 ± 0·0·28°C using the Weibull and first-order model respectively. The calculated activation energies for the first-order and Weibull model were 145 and 170 kJ mole(-1) respectively. The Weibull model described the thermal inactivation behaviour of HAV better than the first-order model. This study provides novel and precise information on thermal inactivation kinetics of HAV in homogenized clams. This will enable reliable thermal process calculations for HAV inactivation in clams and closely related seafood. © 2015 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Stereolithography: A new method for processing dental ceramics by additive computer-aided manufacturing.

PubMed

Dehurtevent, Marion; Robberecht, Lieven; Hornez, Jean-Christophe; Thuault, Anthony; Deveaux, Etienne; Béhin, Pascal

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the physical and mechanical properties of stereolithography (SLA)- manufactured alumina ceramics of different composition to those of subtractive- manufactured ceramics and to produce suitable dental crown frameworks. The physical and mechanical properties of a control and six experimental SLA ceramics prepared from slurries with small (S) and large (L) particles (0.46±0.03 and 1.56±0.04μm, respectively) and three dry matter contents (70%, 75%, 80%) were evaluated by dynamic rheometry, hydrostatic weighing, three3-point flexural strength measurements, and Weibull analyses, and by the micrometrics measurement of shrinkage ratio before and after the heat treatments. S75 was the only small particle slurry with a significantly higher viscosity than L70. The viscosity of the S80 slurry made it impossible to take rheological measurements. The viscosities of the S75 and S80 slurries caused deformations in the printed layers during SLA manufacturing and were excluded from further consideration. SLA samples with low dry matter content had significantly lower and densityflexural strengths. Only SLA samples with a large particle size and high dry matter content (L75 and L80) were similar in density and flexural strength to the subtractive- manufactured samples. The 95% confidence intervals of the Weibull modulus of the L80 ceramic were higher (no overlap fraction) than those of the L75 ceramic and were similar to the control (overlap fraction). The Weibull characteristics of L80 ceramic were higher than those of L75 ceramic and the control. SLA can be used to process suitable crown frameworks but shows results in anisotropic shrinkage. The hH High particle size and dry matter content of the L80 slurry allowed made it possible to produce a reliable ceramic by SLA manufacturing with an anisotropic shrinkage, and a density, and flexural strength similar to those of a subtractive-manufactured ceramic. SLA allowed made it possible to build up a dense 3D alumina crown framework with controlled shape. Further studies on the marginal adaptation and shrinkage model of alumina crown frameworks will be required to optimize the process. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The fracture load and failure types of veneered anterior zirconia crowns: an analysis of normal and Weibull distribution of complete and censored data.

PubMed

Stawarczyk, Bogna; Ozcan, Mutlu; Hämmerle, Christoph H F; Roos, Malgorzata

2012-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the fracture load of veneered anterior zirconia crowns using normal and Weibull distribution of complete and censored data. Standardized zirconia frameworks for maxillary canines were milled using a CAD/CAM system and randomly divided into 3 groups (N=90, n=30 per group). They were veneered with three veneering ceramics, namely GC Initial ZR, Vita VM9, IPS e.max Ceram using layering technique. The crowns were cemented with glass ionomer cement on metal abutments. The specimens were then loaded to fracture (1 mm/min) in a Universal Testing Machine. The data were analyzed using classical method (normal data distribution (μ, σ); Levene test and one-way ANOVA) and according to the Weibull statistics (s, m). In addition, fracture load results were analyzed depending on complete and censored failure types (only chipping vs. total fracture together with chipping). When computed with complete data, significantly higher mean fracture loads (N) were observed for GC Initial ZR (μ=978, σ=157; s=1043, m=7.2) and VITA VM9 (μ=1074, σ=179; s=1139; m=7.8) than that of IPS e.max Ceram (μ=798, σ=174; s=859, m=5.8) (p<0.05) by classical and Weibull statistics, respectively. When the data were censored for only total fracture, IPS e.max Ceram presented the lowest fracture load for chipping with both classical distribution (μ=790, σ=160) and Weibull statistics (s=836, m=6.5). When total fracture with chipping (classical distribution) was considered as failure, IPS e.max Ceram did not show significant fracture load for total fracture (μ=1054, σ=110) compared to other groups (GC Initial ZR: μ=1039, σ=152, VITA VM9: μ=1170, σ=166). According to Weibull distributed data, VITA VM9 showed significantly higher fracture load (s=1228, m=9.4) than those of other groups. Both classical distribution and Weibull statistics for complete data yielded similar outcomes. Censored data analysis of all ceramic systems based on failure types is essential and brings additional information regarding the susceptibility to chipping or total fracture. Copyright © 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing either the power or Paris law relations. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating proof testing and fatigue parameter estimation are given.

Reliability Evaluation Method with Weibull Distribution for Temporary Overvoltages of Substation Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okabe, Shigemitsu; Tsuboi, Toshihiro; Takami, Jun

The power-frequency withstand voltage tests are regulated on electric power equipment in JEC by evaluating the lifetime reliability with a Weibull distribution function. The evaluation method is still controversial in terms of consideration of a plural number of faults and some alternative methods were proposed on this subject. The present paper first discusses the physical meanings of the various kinds of evaluating methods and secondly examines their effects on the power-frequency withstand voltage tests. Further, an appropriate method is investigated for an oil-filled transformer and a gas insulated switchgear with taking notice of dielectric breakdown or partial discharge mechanism under various insulating material and structure conditions and the tentative conclusion gives that the conventional method would be most pertinent under the present conditions.

Aerospace Applications of Weibull and Monte Carlo Simulation with Importance Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1998-01-01

Recent developments in reliability modeling and computer technology have made it practical to use the Weibull time to failure distribution to model the system reliability of complex fault-tolerant computer-based systems. These system models are becoming increasingly popular in space systems applications as a result of mounting data that support the decreasing Weibull failure distribution and the expectation of increased system reliability. This presentation introduces the new reliability modeling developments and demonstrates their application to a novel space system application. The application is a proposed guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system for use in a long duration manned spacecraft for a possible Mars mission. Comparisons to the constant failure rate model are presented and the ramifications of doing so are discussed.

A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Donhang

2014-01-01

The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The two identified failure modes follow different acceleration functions. Catastrophic failures follow the traditional power-law relationship to the applied voltage. Slow degradation failures fit well to an exponential law relationship to the applied electrical field. Finally, the impact of capacitor structure on the reliability of BME capacitors is discussed with respect to the number of dielectric layers in an MLCC unit, the number of BaTiO3 grains per dielectric layer, and the chip size of the capacitor device.

Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, W. E.

2015-12-01

Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially better fit to the data than the one-parameter exponential function. For the single porosity system it was found that the use of three parameters was often optimal for accurately describing the base-flow age distribution, whereas for the dual porosity system the fourth parameter was often required to fit the more complicated response curves.

Distributions of Autocorrelated First-Order Kinetic Outcomes: Illness Severity

PubMed Central

Englehardt, James D.

2015-01-01

Many complex systems produce outcomes having recurring, power law-like distributions over wide ranges. However, the form necessarily breaks down at extremes, whereas the Weibull distribution has been demonstrated over the full observed range. Here the Weibull distribution is derived as the asymptotic distribution of generalized first-order kinetic processes, with convergence driven by autocorrelation, and entropy maximization subject to finite positive mean, of the incremental compounding rates. Process increments represent multiplicative causes. In particular, illness severities are modeled as such, occurring in proportion to products of, e.g., chronic toxicant fractions passed by organs along a pathway, or rates of interacting oncogenic mutations. The Weibull form is also argued theoretically and by simulation to be robust to the onset of saturation kinetics. The Weibull exponential parameter is shown to indicate the number and widths of the first-order compounding increments, the extent of rate autocorrelation, and the degree to which process increments are distributed exponential. In contrast with the Gaussian result in linear independent systems, the form is driven not by independence and multiplicity of process increments, but by increment autocorrelation and entropy. In some physical systems the form may be attracting, due to multiplicative evolution of outcome magnitudes towards extreme values potentially much larger and smaller than control mechanisms can contain. The Weibull distribution is demonstrated in preference to the lognormal and Pareto I for illness severities versus (a) toxicokinetic models, (b) biologically-based network models, (c) scholastic and psychological test score data for children with prenatal mercury exposure, and (d) time-to-tumor data of the ED01 study. PMID:26061263

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2013-01-01

Leonard Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Johnson's methodology is dependent on limited combinations of test parameters (Weibull slope, mean life ratio, and degrees of freedom) and a set of complex mathematical equations. In this report, a simplified algebraic equation for confidence numbers is derived based on the original work of Johnson. The confidence numbers calculated with this equation are compared to those obtained graphically by Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers at the 99 percent level deviate less than 1 percent from those of Johnson. At a 90 percent confidence level, the calculated values differ between +2 and 4 percent. The simplified equation is used to rank the experimental lives of three aluminum alloys (AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075), each tested at three stress levels in rotating beam fatigue, analyzed using the Johnson- Weibull method, and compared to the ASTM Standard (E739 91) method of comparison. The ASTM Standard did not statistically distinguish between AL 6061 and AL 7075. However, it is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers using the Johnson- Weibull analysis. AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median, or L(sub 50), lives

An EOQ Model with Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution Deterioration and Price-Dependent Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mukhopadhyay, Sushanta; Mukherjee, R. N.; Chaudhuri, K. S.

2005-01-01

An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

Morphological study on the prediction of the site of surface slides

Treesearch

Hiromasa Hiura

1991-01-01

The annual continual occurrence of surface slides in the basin was estimated by modifying the estimation formula of Yoshimatsu. The Weibull Distribution Function revealed to be usefull for presenting the state and the transition of surface slides in the basin. Three parameters of the Weibull Function are recognized to be the linear function of the area ratio a/A. The...

Automatic Threshold Detector Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-15

Averaging CFAR in Non- Stationary Weibull Clutter, " L. Novak, (1974 IEEE Symposium on Information Theory ). 8. "The Weibull Distribution Applied to the... UGTS (K) ,Kml NPTS) 140 DO 153 K~lvNPT9 IF(SIGCSO(K) .LT.0. )SIOCSO(K).1 .E-50 IF(SIOWSO(K) .LT.0. )SIGWSQ(K)-1 .E-50 IF(SIONSG(K) .LT.O. )SIG3NSQCIO-1.E

pT spectra in pp and AA collisions at RHIC and LHC energies using the Tsallis-Weibull approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Sadhana; Mahapatra, D. P.

2018-04-01

The Tsallis q -statistics have been incorporated in the Weibull model of particle production, in the form of q-Weibull distribution, to describe the transverse momentum (pT) distribution of charged hadrons at mid-rapidity, measured at RHIC and LHC energies. The q-Weibull distribution is found to describe the observed pT distributions over all ranges of measured pT. Below 2.2 GeV/c, while going from peripheral to central collisions, the parameter q is found to decrease systematically towards unity, indicating an evolution from a non-equilibrated system in peripheral collisions, towards a more thermalized system in central collisions. However, the trend is reversed in the all inclusive pT regime. This can be attributed to an increase in relative contribution of hard pQCD processes in central collisions. The λ-parameter is found to be associated with the mean pT or the collective expansion velocity of the produced hadrons, which shows an expected increase with centrality of collisions. The k parameter is observed to increase with the onset of hard QCD scatterings, initial fluctuations, and other processes leading to non-equilibrium conditions.

Modelling Limit Order Execution Times from Market Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Adlar; Farmer, Doyne; Lo, Andrew

2007-03-01

Although the term ``liquidity'' is widely used in finance literatures, its meaning is very loosely defined and there is no quantitative measure for it. Generally, ``liquidity'' means an ability to quickly trade stocks without causing a significant impact on the stock price. From this definition, we identified two facets of liquidity -- 1.execution time of limit orders, and 2.price impact of market orders. The limit order is an order to transact a prespecified number of shares at a prespecified price, which will not cause an immediate execution. On the other hand, the market order is an order to transact a prespecified number of shares at a market price, which will cause an immediate execution, but are subject to price impact. Therefore, when the stock is liquid, market participants will experience quick limit order executions and small market order impacts. As a first step to understand market liquidity, we studied the facet of liquidity related to limit order executions -- execution times. In this talk, we propose a novel approach of modeling limit order execution times and show how they are affected by size and price of orders. We used q-Weibull distribution, which is a generalized form of Weibull distribution that can control the fatness of tail to model limit order execution times.

Impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the performance of a relay-assisted free-space optical communication system over exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian; Fu, Huihua; Wang, Ranran; Guo, Lixin

2016-09-20

The impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the system performance of decode-and-forward protocol-based multihop parallel optical wireless communication systems is studied. For the aggregated fading channel, the atmospheric turbulence is simulated by an exponentiated Weibull model, and pointing errors are described by one recently proposed statistical model including both boresight and jitter. The binary phase-shift keying subcarrier intensity modulation-based analytical average bit error rate (ABER) and outage probability expressions are achieved for a nonidentically and independently distributed system. The ABER and outage probability are then analyzed with different turbulence strengths, receiving aperture sizes, structure parameters (P and Q), jitter variances, and boresight displacements. The results show that aperture averaging offers almost the same system performance improvement with boresight included or not, despite the values of P and Q. The performance enhancement owing to the increase of cooperative path (P) is more evident with nonzero boresight than that with zero boresight (jitter only), whereas the performance deterioration because of the increasing hops (Q) with nonzero boresight is almost the same as that with zero boresight. Monte Carlo simulation is offered to verify the validity of ABER and outage probability expressions.

A Mixed Kijima Model Using the Weibull-Based Generalized Renewal Processes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Generalized Renewal Processes are useful for approaching the rejuvenation of dynamical systems resulting from planned or unplanned interventions. We present new perspectives for the Generalized Renewal Processes in general and for the Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes in particular. Disregarding from literature, we present a mixed Generalized Renewal Processes approach involving Kijima Type I and II models, allowing one to infer the impact of distinct interventions on the performance of the system under study. The first and second theoretical moments of this model are introduced as well as its maximum likelihood estimation and random sampling approaches. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes model, some real data sets involving improving, stable, and deteriorating systems are used. PMID:26197222

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

2000-01-01

Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

Comparison of mechanical properties of three machinable ceramics with an experimental fluorophlogopite glass ceramic.

PubMed

Leung, Brian T W; Tsoi, James K H; Matinlinna, Jukka P; Pow, Edmond H N

2015-09-01

Fluorophlogopite glass ceramic (FGC) is a biocompatible, etchable, and millable ceramic with fluoride releasing property. However, its mechanical properties and reliability compared with other machinable ceramics remain undetermined. The purpose of this in vitro study was to compare the mechanical properties of 3 commercially available millable ceramic materials, IPS e.max CAD, Vitablocs Mark II, and Vita Enamic, with an experimental FGC. Each type of ceramic block was sectioned into beams (n=15) of standard dimensions of 2×2×15 mm. Before mechanical testing, specimens of the IPS e.max CAD group were further fired for final crystallization. Flexural strength was determined by the 3-point bend test with a universal loading machine at a cross head speed of 1 mm/min. Hardness was determined with a hardness tester with 5 Vickers hardness indentations (n=5) using a 1.96 N load and a dwell time of 15 seconds. Selected surfaces were examined by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. Data were analyzed by the 1-way ANOVA test and Weibull analysis (α=.05). Weibull parameters, including the Weibull modulus (m) as well as the characteristic strength at 63.2% (η) and 10.0% (B10), were obtained. A significant difference in flexural strength (P<.001) was found among groups, with IPS e.max CAD (341.88 ±40.25 MPa)>Vita Enamic (145.95 ±12.65 MPa)>Vitablocs Mark II (106.67 ±18.50 MPa), and FGC (117.61 ±7.62 MPa). The Weibull modulus ranged from 6.93 to 18.34, with FGC showing the highest Weibull modulus among the 4 materials. The Weibull plot revealed that IPS e.max CAD>Vita Enamic>FGC>Vitablocs Mark II for the characteristic strength at both 63.2% (η) and 10.0% (B10). Significant difference in Vickers hardness among groups (P<.001) was found with IPS e.max CAD (731.63 ±30.64 H(V))>Vitablocs Mark II (594.74 ±25.22 H(V))>Vita Enamic (372.29 ±51.23 H(V))>FGC (153.74 ±23.62 H(V)). The flexural strength and Vickers hardness of IPS e.max CAD were significantly higher than those of the 3 materials tested. The FGC's flexural strength was comparable with Vitablocs Mark II. The FGC's Weibull modulus was the highest, while its Vickers hardness was the lowest among the materials tested. Copyright © 2015 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of oxidation on fatigue crack nucleation life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshida, Y.; Liu, H. W.

1988-01-01

The effects of preoxidation on subsequent fatigue life were studied. Surface oxidation and grain boundary oxidation of a nickel-base superalloy (TAZ-8A) were studied at 600 to 1000 C for 10 to 1000 hours in air. Surface oxides were identified and the kinetics of surface oxidation was discussed. Grain boundary oxide penetration and morphology were studied. Pancake type grain boundary oxide penetrates deeper and its size is larger, therefore, it is more detrimental to fatigue life than cone-type grain boundary oxide. Oxide penetration depth, a (sub m), is related to oxidation temperature, T, and exposure time, t, by an empirical relation of the Arrhenius type. Effects of T and t on statistical variation of a (sub m) were analyzed according to the Weibull distribution function. Once the oxide is cracked, it serves as a fatigue crack nucleus. Statistical variation of the remaining fatigue life, after the formation of an oxide crack of a critical length, is related directly to the statistical variation of grain boundary oxide penetration depth.

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of pre-oxidation on subsequent fatigue life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshida, Y.; Liu, H. W.

1986-01-01

The effects of preoxidation on subsequent fatigue life were studied. Surface oxidation and grain boundary oxidation of a nickel-base superalloy (TAZ-8A) were studied at 600 to 1000 C for 10 to 1000 hours in air. Surface oxides were identified and the kinetics of surface oxidation was discussed. Grain boundary oxide penetration and morphology were studied. Pancake type grain boundary oxide penetrates deeper and its size is larger, therefore, it is more detrimental to fatigue life than cone-type grain boundary oxide. Oxide penetration depth, a (sub m), is related to oxidation temperature, T, and exposure time, t, by an empirical relation of the Arrhenius type. Effects of T and t on statistical variation of a (sub m) were analyzed according to the Weibull distribution function. Once the oxide is cracked, it serves as a fatigue crack nucleus. Statistical variation of the remaining fatigue life, after the formation of an oxide crack of a critical length, is related directly to the statistical variation of grain boundary oxide penetration depth.

Statistical models for the distribution of modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture in lumber with implications for reliability calculations

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; Frank C. Owens; David E. Kretschmann; Rubin Shmulsky

2017-01-01

It is common practice to assume that a two-parameter Weibull probability distribution is suitable for modeling lumber properties. Verrill and co-workers demonstrated theoretically and empirically that the modulus of rupture (MOR) distribution of visually graded or machine stress rated (MSR) lumber is not distributed as a Weibull. Instead, the tails of the MOR...

On the q-type distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadarajah, Saralees; Kotz, Samuel

2007-04-01

Various q-type distributions have appeared in the physics literature in the recent years, see e.g. L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236 (1997) 52-57. It is pointed out in the paper that many of these are the same as or particular cases of what has been known in the statistics literature. Several of these statistical distributions are discussed and references provided. We feel that this paper could be of assistance for modeling problems of the type considered by L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236 (1997) 52-57 and others.

Fatigue stipulation of bulk-fill composites: An in vitro appraisal.

PubMed

Vidhawan, Shruti A; Yap, Adrian U; Ornaghi, Barbara P; Banas, Agnieszka; Banas, Krzysztof; Neo, Jennifer C; Pfeifer, Carmem S; Rosa, Vinicius

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to determine the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters of bulk-fill resin based composites. The strength degradation over time of the materials was also assessed by strength-probability-time (SPT) analysis. Three bulk-fill [Tetric EvoCeram Bulk Fill (TBF); X-tra fil (XTR); Filtek Bulk-fill flowable (BFL)] and a conventional one [Filtek Z250 (Z250)] were studied. Seventy five disk-shaped specimens (12mm in diameter and 1mm thick) were prepared by inserting the uncured composites in a stainless steel split mold followed by photoactivation (1200mW/cm(2)/20s) and storage in distilled water (37°C/24h). Degree of conversion was evaluated in five specimens by analysis of FT-IR spectra obtained in the mid-IR region. The SCG parameters n (stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient) and σf0 (scaling parameter) were obtained by testing ten specimens in each of the five stress rates: 10(-2), 10(-1), 10(0), 10(1) and 10(2)MPa/s using a piston-on-three-balls device. Weibull parameter m (Weibull modulus) and σf0 (characteristic strength) were obtained by testing additional 20 specimens at 1MPa/s. Strength-probability-time (SPT) diagrams were constructed by merging SCG and Weibull parameters. BFL and TBF presented higher n values, respectively (40.1 and 25.5). Z250 showed the highest (157.02MPa) and TBF the lowest (110.90MPa) σf0 value. Weibull analysis showed m (Weibull modulus) of 9.7, 8.6, 9.7 and 8.9 for TBF, BFL, XTR and Z250, respectively. SPT diagram for 5% probability of failure showed strength decrease of 18% for BFL, 25% for TBF, 32% for XTR and 36% for Z250, respectively, after 5 years as compared to 1 year. The reliability and decadence of strength over time for bulk-fill resin composites studied are, at least, comparable to conventional composites. BFL shows the highest fatigue resistance under all simulations followed by TBF, while XTR was at par with Z250. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of HF Treatments on Tensile Strength of Hi-Nicalon Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.

1998-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having a dual BN/SiC surface coating, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, have been measured at room temperature. These fibers were also treated with HF for 24 h followed by tensile strength measurements. Strengths of uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers extracted from celsian matrix composites, by dissolving away the matrix in HF for 24 h, were also determined. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. The Hi-Nicalon/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 3.04 q 0.53 GPa and Weibull modulus of 6.66. After HF treatments, the average strengths of the uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers were 2.69 +/- 0.67 GPa and 2.80 +/- 0.53 GPa and the Weibull moduli were 4.93 and 5.96, respectively. The BN/SiC coated fibers extracted from the celsian matrix composite exhibited a strength of 2.38 +/- 0.40 GPa and a Weibull modulus of 7.15. The strength of the uncoated Hi-Nicalon fibers in the composite was so severely degraded that they disintegrated into small fragments during extraction with HF. The uncoated fibers probably undergo mechanical surface damage during hot pressing of the composites. Also, the BN layer on the coated fibers acts as a compliant layer which protects the fibers from mechanical damage during composite processing. The elemental composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were deten-nined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Strengths of fibers calculated using average and measured fiber diameters were in good agreement. Thus, the strength of fibers can be evaluated using an average fiber diameter instead of the measured diameter of each filament.

Fabrication and Probabilistic Fracture Strength Prediction of High-Aspect-Ratio Single Crystal Silicon Carbide Microspecimens With Stress Concentration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Evans, Laura J.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Sharpe, William N., Jr.; Beheim, Glenn M.; Trapp, Mark A.

2005-01-01

Single crystal silicon carbide micro-sized tensile specimens were fabricated with deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) in order to investigate the effect of stress concentration on the room-temperature fracture strength. The fracture strength was defined as the level of stress at the highest stressed location in the structure at the instant of specimen rupture. Specimens with an elliptical hole, a circular hole, and without a hole (and hence with no stress concentration) were made. The average fracture strength of specimens with a higher stress concentration was larger than the average fracture strength of specimens with a lower stress concentration. Average strength of elliptical-hole, circular-hole, and without-hole specimens was 1.53, 1.26, and 0.66 GPa, respectively. Significant scatter in strength was observed with the Weibull modulus ranging between 2 and 6. No fractographic examination was performed but it was assumed that the strength controlling flaws originated from etching grooves along the specimen side-walls. The increase of observed fracture strength with increasing stress concentration was compared to predictions made with the Weibull stress-integral formulation by using the NASA CARES/Life code. In the analysis isotropic material and fracture behavior was assumed - hence it was not a completely rigorous analysis. However, even with these assumptions good correlation was achieved for the circular-hole specimen data when using the specimen data without stress concentration as a baseline. Strength was over predicted for the elliptical-hole specimen data. Significant specimen-to-specimen dimensional variation existed in the elliptical-hole specimens due to variations in the nickel mask used in the etching. To simulate the additional effect of the dimensional variability on the probabilistic strength response for the single crystal specimens the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) was used with CARES/Life.

Tensile Strength and Microstructural Characterization of Uncoated and Coated HPZ Ceramic Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.; Wheeler, Donald R.; Dickerson, Robert M.

1996-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received HPZ fiber and those surface coated with BN, BN/SiC, and BN/Si3N4 have been determined at room temperature using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Nominally approx. 0.4 micron BN and 0.2 micron SiC or Si3N4 coatings were deposited on the fibers by chemical vapor deposition using a continuous reactor. The average tensile strength of uncoated HPZ fiber was 2.0 +/- 0.56 GPa (290 +/- 81 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 4.1. For the BN coated fibers, the average strength and the Weibull modulus increased to 2.39 +/- 0.44 GPa (346 +/- 64 ksi) and 6.5, respectively. The HPZ/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 2.0 +/- 0.32 GPa (290 +/- 47 ksi) and Weibull modulus of 7.3. Average strength of the fibers having a dual BN/Si3N4 surface coating degraded to 1.15 +/- 0.26 GPa (166 +/- 38 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 5.3. The chemical composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were determined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analysis of the fibers and the coatings was carried out by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. A microporous silica-rich layer approx. 200 nm thick is present on the as-received HPZ fiber surface. The BN coatings on the fibers are amorphous to partly turbostratic and contaminated with carbon and oxygen. Silicon carbide coating was crystalline whereas the silicon nitride coating was amorphous. The silicon carbide and silicon nitride coatings are non-stoichiometric, non-uniform, and granular. Within a fiber tow, the fibers on the outside had thicker and more granular coatings than those on the inside.

Gellan gum microspheres crosslinked with trivalent ion: effect of polymer and crosslinker concentrations on drug release and mucoadhesive properties.

PubMed

Boni, Fernanda Isadora; Prezotti, Fabíola Garavello; Cury, Beatriz Stringhetti Ferreira

2016-08-01

Gellan gum microspheres were obtained by ionotropic gelation technique, using the trivalent ion Al(3+). The percentage of entrapment efficiency ranged from 48.76 to 87.52% and 2(2) randomized full factorial design demonstrated that both the increase of polymer concentration and the decrease of crosslinker concentration presented a positive effect in the amount of encapsulated drug. Microspheres size and circularity ranged from 700.17 to 938.32 μm and from 0.641 to 0.796 μm, respectively. The increase of polymer concentration (1-2%) and crosslinker concentration (3-5%) led to the enlargement of particle size and circularity. However, the association of increased crosslinker concentration and reduced polymer content made the particles more irregular. In vitro and ex vivo tests evidenced the high mucoadhesiveness of microspheres. The high liquid uptake ability of the microspheres was demonstrated and the pH variation did not affect this parameter. Drug release was pH dependent, with low release rates in acid pH (42.40% and 44.93%) and a burst effect in phosphate buffer pH (7.4). The Weibull model had the best correlation with the drug release data, demonstrating that the release process was driven by a complex mechanism involving the erosion and swelling of the matrix or by non-Fickian diffusion.

Evaluation of the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Fracture Probability in Composite Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-03-01

for the risk of rupture for a unidirectionally laminat - ed composite subjected to pure bending. (5D This equation can be simplified further by use of...C EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS. THESIS / AFIT/GAE...EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WE1BULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS THESIS Presented

Mechanical Testing of Silicon Carbide on MISSE-7

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-15

JS) ii Abstract Silicon carbide ( SiC ) mechanical test specimens were included on the second Optical and Reflector Materials Experiment (ORMatE II...2. Vendor 2 EFS Weibull Results (normalized to Extra Disks Weibull parameters) 12 1. Introduction Silicon carbide ( SiC ) mechanical test...AEROSPACE REPORT NO ATR-2012(8921)-5 Mechanical Testing of Silicon Carbide on MISSE-7 Jul> 15. 2012 David B. Witkin Space Materials Laboratory

Investigation of Dielectric Breakdown Characteristics for Double-break Vacuum Interrupter and Dielectric Breakdown Probability Distribution in Vacuum Interrupter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shioiri, Tetsu; Asari, Naoki; Sato, Junichi; Sasage, Kosuke; Yokokura, Kunio; Homma, Mitsutaka; Suzuki, Katsumi

To investigate the reliability of equipment of vacuum insulation, a study was carried out to clarify breakdown probability distributions in vacuum gap. Further, a double-break vacuum circuit breaker was investigated for breakdown probability distribution. The test results show that the breakdown probability distribution of the vacuum gap can be represented by a Weibull distribution using a location parameter, which shows the voltage that permits a zero breakdown probability. The location parameter obtained from Weibull plot depends on electrode area. The shape parameter obtained from Weibull plot of vacuum gap was 10∼14, and is constant irrespective non-uniform field factor. The breakdown probability distribution after no-load switching can be represented by Weibull distribution using a location parameter. The shape parameter after no-load switching was 6∼8.5, and is constant, irrespective of gap length. This indicates that the scatter of breakdown voltage was increased by no-load switching. If the vacuum circuit breaker uses a double break, breakdown probability at low voltage becomes lower than single-break probability. Although potential distribution is a concern in the double-break vacuum cuicuit breaker, its insulation reliability is better than that of the single-break vacuum interrupter even if the bias of the vacuum interrupter's sharing voltage is taken into account.

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

Effect of Be Modification on the Oxide Bifilms and Tensile Strength Reliability of Al-Si-Mg Alloys Containing Excess Fe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadian Nozari, M.; Taghiabadi, R.; Karimzadeh, M.; Ghoncheh, M. H.

2018-03-01

The effect of oxide bifilms and Be modification (0.2 wt pct) on the tensile strength reliability of the as-cast and T6 heat-treated Al-9Si-0.35Mg-1.5Fe alloy was investigated using Weibull analysis. For this purpose, the density of oxide bifilms in the molten alloy was intentionally increased by surface agitation. According to the results, Be modifies the β-Al5FeSi particles to the less harmful α-Fe compounds and substantially decreases the bifilm density in the castings leading to improved tensile properties and higher reliability. Moreover, the beneficial effect of Be was found to be more in the samples containing higher amounts of bifilms. For instance, in the heat-treated condition, Be increased the Weibull modulus of the non-agitated and surface-agitated samples by 4 and 94 pct, respectively. This improvement can be attributed to the strengthening effect of Be on the young surface oxides so that they resist more against rupture when melt is subjected to the surface turbulence. The reduced pressure test and fractography investigations also confirmed the reduction of bifilm density and bifilm-related defects in Be-modified samples.

Effect of Be Modification on the Oxide Bifilms and Tensile Strength Reliability of Al-Si-Mg Alloys Containing Excess Fe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadian Nozari, M.; Taghiabadi, R.; Karimzadeh, M.; Ghoncheh, M. H.

2018-06-01

The effect of oxide bifilms and Be modification (0.2 wt pct) on the tensile strength reliability of the as-cast and T6 heat-treated Al-9Si-0.35Mg-1.5Fe alloy was investigated using Weibull analysis. For this purpose, the density of oxide bifilms in the molten alloy was intentionally increased by surface agitation. According to the results, Be modifies the β-Al5FeSi particles to the less harmful α-Fe compounds and substantially decreases the bifilm density in the castings leading to improved tensile properties and higher reliability. Moreover, the beneficial effect of Be was found to be more in the samples containing higher amounts of bifilms. For instance, in the heat-treated condition, Be increased the Weibull modulus of the non-agitated and surface-agitated samples by 4 and 94 pct, respectively. This improvement can be attributed to the strengthening effect of Be on the young surface oxides so that they resist more against rupture when melt is subjected to the surface turbulence. The reduced pressure test and fractography investigations also confirmed the reduction of bifilm density and bifilm-related defects in Be-modified samples.

Effect of BN coating on the strength of a mullite type fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, K. K.; Xu, Z. R.; Ha, J.-S.; Schmücker, M.; Schneider, H.

1997-09-01

Nextel 480 is a polycrystalline essentially mullite fiber (70 wt.-% Al2O3+28 wt.-% SiO2+2 wt.-% B2O3). Different thicknesses of BN were applied as coatings on this fiber. Optical, scanning electron, and transmission electron microscopy were used to characterize the microstructure of the coatings and fibers. The effects of coating and high temperature exposure on the fiber strength were investigated using two-parameter Weibull distribution. TEM examination showed that the BN coating has a turbostratic structure, with the basal planes lying predominantly parallel to the fiber surface. Such an orientation of coating is desirable for easy crack deflection and subsequent fiber pullout in a composite. The BN coated Nextel 480 fiber showed that Weibull mean strength increased first and then decreased with increasing coating thickness. This was due to the surface flaw healing effect of the coating (up to 0.3 μm) while in the case of thick BN coating (1 μm), the soft nature of the coating material had a more dominant effect and resulted in a decrease of the fiber strength. High temperature exposure of Nextel 480 resulted in grain growth, which led to a strength loss.

Mechanical properties of silicate glasses exposed to a low-Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiedlocher, David E.; Tucker, Dennis S.; Nichols, Ron; Kinser, Donald L.

1992-01-01

The effects of a 5.8 year exposure to low earth orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of commercial optical fused silica, low iron soda-lime-silica, Pyrex 7740, Vycor 7913, BK-7, and the glass ceramic Zerodur were examined. Mechanical testing employed the ASTM-F-394 piston on 3-ball method in a liquid nitrogen environment. Samples were exposed on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in two locations. Impacts were observed on all specimens except Vycor. Weibull analysis as well as a standard statistical evaluation were conducted. The Weibull analysis revealed no differences between control samples and the two exposed samples. We thus concluded that radiation components of the Earth orbital environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. The upper bound of strength degradation for meteorite impacted samples based upon statistical analysis and observation was 50 percent.

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1994-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemeth, N.N.; Janosik, L.A.; Gyekenyesi, J.P.

1996-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength andmore » fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens, which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.« less

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

Dynamics of Polydisperse Foam-like Emulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicock, Harry; Feitosa, Klebert

2011-10-01

Foam is a complex fluid whose relaxation properties are associated with the continuous diffusion of gas from small to large bubbles driven by differences in Laplace pressures. We study the dynamics of bubble rearrangements by tracking droplets of a clear, buoyantly neutral emulsion that coarsens like a foam. The droplets are imaged in three dimensions using confocal microscopy. Analysis of the images allows us to measure their positions and radii, and track their evolution in time. We find that the droplet size distribution fits a Weibull distribution characteristics of foam systems. Additionally, we observe that droplets undergo continuous evolution interspersed by occasional large rearrangements in par with local relaxation behavior typical of foams.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain.

PubMed

Rosa, Vinicius; Yoshimura, Humberto N; Pinto, Marcelo M; Fredericci, Catia; Cesar, Paulo F

2009-06-01

To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer's instructions, polished through 1 microm and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO3 paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n=10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5-62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3-10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material's reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group.

The influence of Y-TZP surface treatment on topography and ceramic/resin cement interfacial fracture toughness.

PubMed

Paes, P N G; Bastian, F L; Jardim, P M

2017-09-01

Consider the efficacy of glass infiltration etching (SIE) treatment as a procedure to modify the zirconia surface resulting in higher interfacial fracture toughness. Y-TZP was subjected to 5 different surface treatments conditions consisting of no treatment (G1), SIE followed by hydrofluoric acid treatment (G2), heat treated at 750°C (G3), hydrofluoric acid treated (G4) and airborne-particle abrasion with alumina particles (G5). The effect of surface treatment on roughness was evaluated by Atomic Force Microscopy providing three different parameters: R a , R sk and surface area variation. The ceramic/resin cement interface was analyzed by Fracture Mechanics K I test with failure mode determined by fractographic analysis. Weibull's analysis was also performed to evaluate the structural integrity of the adhesion zone. G2 and G4 specimens showed very similar, and high R a values but different surface area variation (33% for G2 and 13% for G4) and they presented the highest fracture toughness (K IC ). Weibull's analysis showed G2 (SIE) tendency to exhibit higher K IC values than the other groups but with more data scatter and a higher early failure probability than G4 specimens. Selective glass infiltration etching surface treatment was effective in modifying the zirconia surface roughness, increasing the bonding area and hence the mechanical imbrications at the zirconia/resin cement interface resulting in higher fracture toughness (K IC ) values with higher K IC values obtained when failure probability above 20% was expected (Weibull's distribution) among all the experimental groups. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small Sample Properties of Asymptotically Efficient Estimators of the Parameters of a Bivariate Gaussian–Weibull Distribution

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

2012-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity or MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture or MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two or three parameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of...

Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a bivariate Gaussian-Weibull distribution from machine stress-rated data

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; David E. Kretschmann; James W. Evans

2016-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity, MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture, MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two- or threeparameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of wood...

Interpreting the Weibull fitting parameters for diffusion-controlled release data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ignacio, Maxime; Chubynsky, Mykyta V.; Slater, Gary W.

2017-11-01

We examine the diffusion-controlled release of molecules from passive delivery systems using both analytical solutions of the diffusion equation and numerically exact Lattice Monte Carlo data. For very short times, the release process follows a √{ t } power law, typical of diffusion processes, while the long-time asymptotic behavior is exponential. The crossover time between these two regimes is determined by the boundary conditions and initial loading of the system. We show that while the widely used Weibull function provides a reasonable fit (in terms of statistical error), it has two major drawbacks: (i) it does not capture the correct limits and (ii) there is no direct connection between the fitting parameters and the properties of the system. Using a physically motivated interpolating fitting function that correctly includes both time regimes, we are able to predict the values of the Weibull parameters which allows us to propose a physical interpretation.

Statistical distribution of mechanical properties for three graphite-epoxy material systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reese, C.; Sorem, J., Jr.

1981-01-01

Graphite-epoxy composites are playing an increasing role as viable alternative materials in structural applications necessitating thorough investigation into the predictability and reproducibility of their material strength properties. This investigation was concerned with tension, compression, and short beam shear coupon testing of large samples from three different material suppliers to determine their statistical strength behavior. Statistical results indicate that a two Parameter Weibull distribution model provides better overall characterization of material behavior for the graphite-epoxy systems tested than does the standard Normal distribution model that is employed for most design work. While either a Weibull or Normal distribution model provides adequate predictions for average strength values, the Weibull model provides better characterization in the lower tail region where the predictions are of maximum design interest. The two sets of the same material were found to have essentially the same material properties, and indicate that repeatability can be achieved.

Study on constant-step stress accelerated life tests in white organic light-emitting diodes.

PubMed

Zhang, J P; Liu, C; Chen, X; Cheng, G L; Zhou, A X

2014-11-01

In order to obtain reliability information for a white organic light-emitting diode (OLED), two constant and one step stress tests were conducted with its working current increased. The Weibull function was applied to describe the OLED life distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and its iterative flow chart were used to calculate shape and scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation was determined using the least squares method, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to assess if the white OLED life follows a Weibull distribution, and self-developed software was used to predict the average and the median lifetimes of the OLED. The numerical results indicate that white OLED life conforms to a Weibull distribution, and that the accelerated life equation completely satisfies the inverse power law. The estimated life of a white OLED may provide significant guidelines for its manufacturers and customers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, J. T.

1990-01-01

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Analysis of Weibull Grading Test for Solid Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Weibull grading test is a powerful technique that allows selection and reliability rating of solid tantalum capacitors for military and space applications. However, inaccuracies in the existing method and non-adequate acceleration factors can result in significant, up to three orders of magnitude, errors in the calculated failure rate of capacitors. This paper analyzes deficiencies of the existing technique and recommends more accurate method of calculations. A physical model presenting failures of tantalum capacitors as time-dependent-dielectric-breakdown is used to determine voltage and temperature acceleration factors and select adequate Weibull grading test conditions. This, model is verified by highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperature and voltage conditions for three types of solid chip tantalum capacitors. It is shown that parameters of the model and acceleration factors can be calculated using a general log-linear relationship for the characteristic life with two stress levels.

A Focus on the Death Kinetics in Predictive Microbiology: Benefits and Limits of the Most Important Models and Some Tools Dealing with Their Application in Foods

PubMed Central

Bevilacqua, Antonio; Speranza, Barbara; Sinigaglia, Milena; Corbo, Maria Rosaria

2015-01-01

Predictive Microbiology (PM) deals with the mathematical modeling of microorganisms in foods for different applications (challenge test, evaluation of microbiological shelf life, prediction of the microbiological hazards connected with foods, etc.). An interesting and important part of PM focuses on the use of primary functions to fit data of death kinetics of spoilage, pathogenic, and useful microorganisms following thermal or non-conventional treatments and can also be used to model survivors throughout storage. The main topic of this review is a focus on the most important death models (negative Gompertz, log-linear, shoulder/tail, Weibull, Weibull+tail, re-parameterized Weibull, biphasic approach, etc.) to pinpoint the benefits and the limits of each model; in addition, the last section addresses the most important tools for the use of death kinetics and predictive microbiology in a user-friendly way. PMID:28231222

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. Methods To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. Results The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. Conclusions Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption. PMID:22490226

A simple method for the analysis of particle sizes of forage and total mixed rations.

PubMed

Lammers, B P; Buckmaster, D R; Heinrichs, A J

1996-05-01

A simple separator was developed to determine the particle sizes of forage and TMR that allows for easy separation of wet forage into three fractions and also allows plotting of the particle size distribution. The device was designed to mimic the laboratory-scale separator for forage particle sizes that was specified by Standard S424 of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers. A comparison of results using the standard device and the newly developed separator indicated no difference in ability to predict fractions of particles with maximum length of less than 8 and 19 mm. The separator requires a small quantity of sample (1.4 L) and is manually operated. The materials on the screens and bottom pan were weighed to obtain the cumulative percentage of sample that was undersize for the two fractions. The results were then plotted using the Weibull distribution, which proved to be the best fit for the data. Convenience samples of haycrop silage, corn silage, and TMR from farms in the northeastern US were analyzed using the forage and TMR separator, and the range of observed values are given.

The relationship between offspring size and fitness: integrating theory and empiricism.

PubMed

Rollinson, Njal; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2013-02-01

How parents divide the energy available for reproduction between size and number of offspring has a profound effect on parental reproductive success. Theory indicates that the relationship between offspring size and offspring fitness is of fundamental importance to the evolution of parental reproductive strategies: this relationship predicts the optimal division of resources between size and number of offspring, it describes the fitness consequences for parents that deviate from optimality, and its shape can predict the most viable type of investment strategy in a given environment (e.g., conservative vs. diversified bet-hedging). Many previous attempts to estimate this relationship and the corresponding value of optimal offspring size have been frustrated by a lack of integration between theory and empiricism. In the present study, we draw from C. Smith and S. Fretwell's classic model to explain how a sound estimate of the offspring size--fitness relationship can be derived with empirical data. We evaluate what measures of fitness can be used to model the offspring size--fitness curve and optimal size, as well as which statistical models should and should not be used to estimate offspring size--fitness relationships. To construct the fitness curve, we recommend that offspring fitness be measured as survival up to the age at which the instantaneous rate of offspring mortality becomes random with respect to initial investment. Parental fitness is then expressed in ecologically meaningful, theoretically defensible, and broadly comparable units: the number of offspring surviving to independence. Although logistic and asymptotic regression have been widely used to estimate offspring size-fitness relationships, the former provides relatively unreliable estimates of optimal size when offspring survival and sample sizes are low, and the latter is unreliable under all conditions. We recommend that the Weibull-1 model be used to estimate this curve because it provides modest improvements in prediction accuracy under experimentally relevant conditions.

Mixture distributions of wind speed in the UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J.; Ouarda, T.; Lee, T. S.

2013-12-01

Wind speed probability distribution is commonly used to estimate potential wind energy. The 2-parameter Weibull distribution has been most widely used to characterize the distribution of wind speed. However, it is unable to properly model wind speed regimes when wind speed distribution presents bimodal and kurtotic shapes. Several studies have concluded that the Weibull distribution should not be used for frequency analysis of wind speed without investigation of wind speed distribution. Due to these mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed data, the application of mixture distributions should be further investigated in the frequency analysis of wind speed. A number of studies have investigated the potential wind energy in different parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed were detected from some of these studies. Nevertheless, mixture distributions have not been employed for wind speed modeling in the Arabian Peninsula. In order to improve our understanding of wind energy potential in Arabian Peninsula, mixture distributions should be tested for the frequency analysis of wind speed. The aim of the current study is to assess the suitability of mixture distributions for the frequency analysis of wind speed in the UAE. Hourly mean wind speed data at 10-m height from 7 stations were used in the current study. The Weibull and Kappa distributions were employed as representatives of the conventional non-mixture distributions. 10 mixture distributions are used and constructed by mixing four probability distributions such as Normal, Gamma, Weibull and Extreme value type-one (EV-1) distributions. Three parameter estimation methods such as Expectation Maximization algorithm, Least Squares method and Meta-Heuristic Maximum Likelihood (MHML) method were employed to estimate the parameters of the mixture distributions. In order to compare the goodness-of-fit of tested distributions and parameter estimation methods for sample wind data, the adjusted coefficient of determination, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Chi-squared statistics were computed. Results indicate that MHML presents the best performance of parameter estimation for the used mixture distributions. In most of the employed 7 stations, mixture distributions give the best fit. When the wind speed regime shows mixture distributional characteristics, most of these regimes present the kurtotic statistical characteristic. Particularly, applications of mixture distributions for these stations show a significant improvement in explaining the whole wind speed regime. In addition, the Weibull-Weibull mixture distribution presents the best fit for the wind speed data in the UAE.

Hydrogen peroxide bleaching induces changes in the physical properties of dental restorative materials: Effects of study protocols.

PubMed

Yu, Hao; Zhang, Chang-Yuan; Wang, Yi-Ning; Cheng, Hui

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of study protocols on the effects of bleaching on the surface roughness, substance loss, flexural strength (FS), flexural modulus (FM), Weibull parameters, and color of 7 restorative materials. The test materials included 4 composite resins, 1 glass-ionomer cement, 1 dental ceramic, and 1 polyacid-modified composite. The specimens were randomly divided into 4 groups (n = 20) according to different study protocols: a bleaching group at 25°C (group 25B), a bleaching group at 37°C (group 37B), a control group at 25°C (group 25C), and a control group at 37°C (group 37C). The specimens in the bleaching group were treated with 40% hydrogen peroxide for 80 min at the respective environmental temperatures. The surface roughness, substance loss, FS, FM, and color of the specimens were measured before and after treatment. FS data were also subjected to Weibull analysis, which was used to estimate of the Weibull modulus (m) and the characteristic strength (σ 0 ). Surface roughness increased and significant color changes were observed for all tested specimens after bleaching treatment, except for the ceramic. After bleaching at 37°C, the polyacid-modified composite showed significantly reduced FS, FM, m, and σ 0 values in comparison to the control specimens stored at 37°C in whole saliva. Significant differences were also found between the 37B and 25B polyacid-modified composite groups in terms of surface roughness, FS, m, σ 0 , and color changes. Varying effects of bleaching on the physical properties of dental restorative materials were observed, and the influences of the study protocols on bleaching effects were found to be material-dependent. The influence of study protocols on the effects of bleaching on the surface roughness, flexural properties, and color of dental restorative materials are material-dependent and should be considered when evaluating the effects of bleaching on dental restorative materials. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

On the performance of dual-hop mixed RF/FSO wireless communication system in urban area over aggregated exponentiated Weibull fading channels with pointing errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yue; Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian

2018-03-01

The performance of decode-and-forward dual-hop mixed radio frequency / free-space optical system in urban area is studied. The RF link is modeled by the Nakagami-m distribution and the FSO link is described by the composite exponentiated Weibull (EW) fading channels with nonzero boresight pointing errors (NBPE). For comparison, the ABER results without pointing errors (PE) and those with zero boresight pointing errors (ZBPE) are also provided. The closed-form expression for the average bit error rate (ABER) in RF link is derived with the help of hypergeometric function, and that in FSO link is obtained by Meijer's G and generalized Gauss-Laguerre quadrature functions. Then, the end-to-end ABERs with binary phase shift keying modulation are achieved on the basis of the computed ABER results of RF and FSO links. The end-to-end ABER performance is further analyzed with different Nakagami-m parameters, turbulence strengths, receiver aperture sizes and boresight displacements. The result shows that with ZBPE and NBPE considered, FSO link suffers a severe ABER degradation and becomes the dominant limitation of the mixed RF/FSO system in urban area. However, aperture averaging can bring significant ABER improvement of this system. Monte Carlo simulation is provided to confirm the validity of the analytical ABER expressions.

Statistical Paradigm for Organic Optoelectronic Devices: Normal Force Testing for Adhesion of Organic Photovoltaics and Organic Light-Emitting Diodes.

PubMed

Vasilak, Lindsay; Tanu Halim, Silvie M; Das Gupta, Hrishikesh; Yang, Juan; Kamperman, Marleen; Turak, Ayse

2017-04-19

In this study, we assess the utility of a normal force (pull-test) approach to measuring adhesion in organic solar cells and organic light-emitting diodes. This approach is a simple and practical method of monitoring the impact of systematic changes in materials, processing conditions, or environmental exposure on interfacial strength and electrode delamination. The ease of measurement enables a statistical description with numerous samples, variant geometry, and minimal preparation. After examining over 70 samples, using the Weibull modulus and the characteristic breaking strength as metrics, we were able to successfully differentiate the adhesion values between 8-tris(hydroxyquinoline aluminum) (Alq 3 ) and poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) and [6,6]-phenyl C61-butyric acid methyl ester (P3HT:PCBM) interfaces with Al and between two annealing times for the bulk heterojunction polymer blends. Additionally, the Weibull modulus, a relative measure of the range of flaw sizes at the fracture plane, can be correlated with the roughness of the organic surface. Finite element modeling of the delamination process suggests that the out-of-plane elastic modulus for Alq 3 is lower than the reported in-plane elastic values. We suggest a statistical treatment of a large volume of tests be part of the standard protocol for investigating adhesion to accommodate the unavoidable variability in morphology and interfacial structure found in most organic devices.

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Vicek, Brian L.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic failure analysis is essential when analysis of stress-life (S-N) curves is inconclusive in determining the relative ranking of two or more materials. In 1964, L. Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Simplified algebraic equations for confidence numbers were derived based on the original work of L. Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers deviated less than one percent from those of Johnson. It is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers. These equations were applied to rotating beam fatigue tests that were conducted on three aluminum alloys at three stress levels each. These alloys were AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075. The results were analyzed and compared using ASTM Standard E739-91 and the Johnson-Weibull analysis. The ASTM method did not statistically distinguish between AL 6010 and AL 7075. Based on the Johnson-Weibull analysis confidence numbers greater than 99 percent, AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median or L(sub 50) lives.

Use of simulation tools to illustrate the effect of data management practices for low and negative plate counts on the estimated parameters of microbial reduction models.

PubMed

Garcés-Vega, Francisco; Marks, Bradley P

2014-08-01

In the last 20 years, the use of microbial reduction models has expanded significantly, including inactivation (linear and nonlinear), survival, and transfer models. However, a major constraint for model development is the impossibility to directly quantify the number of viable microorganisms below the limit of detection (LOD) for a given study. Different approaches have been used to manage this challenge, including ignoring negative plate counts, using statistical estimations, or applying data transformations. Our objective was to illustrate and quantify the effect of negative plate count data management approaches on parameter estimation for microbial reduction models. Because it is impossible to obtain accurate plate counts below the LOD, we performed simulated experiments to generate synthetic data for both log-linear and Weibull-type microbial reductions. We then applied five different, previously reported data management practices and fit log-linear and Weibull models to the resulting data. The results indicated a significant effect (α = 0.05) of the data management practices on the estimated model parameters and performance indicators. For example, when the negative plate counts were replaced by the LOD for log-linear data sets, the slope of the subsequent log-linear model was, on average, 22% smaller than for the original data, the resulting model underpredicted lethality by up to 2.0 log, and the Weibull model was erroneously selected as the most likely correct model for those data. The results demonstrate that it is important to explicitly report LODs and related data management protocols, which can significantly affect model results, interpretation, and utility. Ultimately, we recommend using only the positive plate counts to estimate model parameters for microbial reduction curves and avoiding any data value substitutions or transformations when managing negative plate counts to yield the most accurate model parameters.

The Effect of Structural Quality on Fatigue Life in 319 Aluminum Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Özdeş, Hüseyin; Tiryakioğlu, Murat

2017-02-01

Tensile and fatigue life data for 319 aluminum alloy from seventeen datasets reported in four independent studies from the literature have been reanalyzed. Analysis of fatigue life data involved mean stress correction for different R ratios used in fatigue testing, inclusion of survival (runout) data along with failure data, as well as volumetric correction for Weibull distributions for different specimen sizes used in these studies. Tensile data have been transformed into the structural quality index, Q T, which is used as a measure of the structural quality of castings. A distinct relationship has been observed between the expected fatigue life and mean quality index. Moreover, fatigue strengths at 104 and 106 cycles have been found increase with quality index, providing further evidence about the relationship observed between structural quality and fatigue performance. Empirical equations between Basquin parameters and structural quality index have been developed. The use of the comprehensive methodology to estimate fatigue life is demonstrated with an example.

Least Squares Best Fit Method for the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution: Analysis of Tensile and Bend Specimens with Volume or Surface Flaw Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard

1996-01-01

Material characterization parameters obtained from naturally flawed specimens are necessary for reliability evaluation of non-deterministic advanced ceramic structural components. The least squares best fit method is applied to the three parameter uniaxial Weibull model to obtain the material parameters from experimental tests on volume or surface flawed specimens subjected to pure tension, pure bending, four point or three point loading. Several illustrative example problems are provided.

Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: A survival prediction model to facilitate clinical decision making.

PubMed

Bradbury, Andrew W; Adam, Donald J; Bell, Jocelyn; Forbes, John F; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Gillespie, Ian; Ruckley, Charles Vaughan; Raab, Gillian M

2010-05-01

An intention-to-treat analysis of the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial showed that in patients with severe lower limb ischemia (SLI) due to infrainguinal disease who survived for 2 years after intervention, initial randomization to a bypass surgery (BSX)-first vs balloon angioplasty (BAP)-first revascularization strategy was associated with improvements in subsequent overall survival (OS) and amputation-free survival (AFS) of about 7 and 6 months, respectively. This study explored the value of baseline factors to estimate the likelihood of survival to 2 years for the trial cohort (Cox model) and for individual BASIL trial patients (Weibull model) as an aid to clinical decision making. Of 452 patients presenting to 27 United Kingdom hospitals, 228 were randomly assigned to a BSX-first and 224 to a BAP-first revascularization strategy. Patients were monitored for at least 3 years. Baseline factors affecting the survival of the entire cohort were examined with a multivariate Cox model. The chances of survival at 1 and 2 years for patients with given baseline characteristics were estimated with a Weibull parametric model. At the end of follow-up, 172 patients (38%) were alive without major limb amputation of the trial leg, and 202 (45%) were alive. Baseline factors that were significant in the Cox model were BASIL randomization stratification group, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, age, diabetes, creatinine level, and smoking status. Using these factors to define five equally sized groups, we identified patients with 2-year survival rates of 50% to 90%. The factors that contributed to the Weibull predictive model were age, presence of tissue loss, serum creatinine, number of ankle pressure measurements detectable, maximum ankle pressure measured, a history of myocardial infarction or angina, a history of stroke or transient ischemia attack, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, and smoking status. Patients in the BASIL trial were at high risk of amputation and death regardless of revascularization strategy. However, baseline factors can be used to stratify those risks. Furthermore, within a parametric Weibull model, certain of these factors can be used to help predict outcomes for individuals. It may thus be possible to define the clinical and anatomic (angiographic) characteristics of SLI patients who are likely-and not likely-to live for >2 years after intervention. Used appropriately in the context of the BASIL trial outcomes, this may aid clinical decision making regarding a BSX- or BAP-first revascularization strategy in SLI patients like those randomized in BASIL. Copyright (c) 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

Kinetics of shear-induced gel deswelling/solvent release.

PubMed

Zeo, Undina; Tarabukina, Elena; Budtova, Tatiana

2005-11-02

The kinetics of shear-induced deswelling of gel particles based on synthetic (sodium polyacrylate) and natural (alginate) polymers was studied by rheo-optical technique. A swollen spherical gel particle of 100+/-50 microm diameter was placed in silicone oil and the evolution of the gel size as a function of time and shear rate was monitored. Different aqueous polymer solutions were used as synthetic gel solvent: polyvinylpyrrolidone, hydroxypropyl cellulose and glucose-based polymer. The interfacial tension (gel solvent)/(silicone oil), gel degree of swelling, solvent quality and viscosity are the main parameters influencing the kinetics of shear-induced gel deswelling. The kinetics of gel volume loss was approximated by a modified Weibull equation.

SEEK: A FORTRAN optimization program using a feasible directions gradient search

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.

1995-01-01

This report describes the use of computer program 'SEEK' which works in conjunction with two user-written subroutines and an input data file to perform an optimization procedure on a user's problem. The optimization method uses a modified feasible directions gradient technique. SEEK is written in ANSI standard Fortran 77, has an object size of about 46K bytes, and can be used on a personal computer running DOS. This report describes the use of the program and discusses the optimizing method. The program use is illustrated with four example problems: a bushing design, a helical coil spring design, a gear mesh design, and a two-parameter Weibull life-reliability curve fit.

Statistical wind analysis for near-space applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roney, Jason A.

2007-09-01

Statistical wind models were developed based on the existing observational wind data for near-space altitudes between 60 000 and 100 000 ft (18 30 km) above ground level (AGL) at two locations, Akon, OH, USA, and White Sands, NM, USA. These two sites are envisioned as playing a crucial role in the first flights of high-altitude airships. The analysis shown in this paper has not been previously applied to this region of the stratosphere for such an application. Standard statistics were compiled for these data such as mean, median, maximum wind speed, and standard deviation, and the data were modeled with Weibull distributions. These statistics indicated, on a yearly average, there is a lull or a “knee” in the wind between 65 000 and 72 000 ft AGL (20 22 km). From the standard statistics, trends at both locations indicated substantial seasonal variation in the mean wind speed at these heights. The yearly and monthly statistical modeling indicated that Weibull distributions were a reasonable model for the data. Forecasts and hindcasts were done by using a Weibull model based on 2004 data and comparing the model with the 2003 and 2005 data. The 2004 distribution was also a reasonable model for these years. Lastly, the Weibull distribution and cumulative function were used to predict the 50%, 95%, and 99% winds, which are directly related to the expected power requirements of a near-space station-keeping airship. These values indicated that using only the standard deviation of the mean may underestimate the operational conditions.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2016-01-01

A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable life results using the Lundberg- Palmgren equations with life adjustment factors to predict bearing life. That is, they had lives equal to or greater than that predicted. The Lundberg-Palmgren model was used to predict the life of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The life prediction was compared with the field lives of 64 gearboxes. From these results, the roller bearing lives exhibited a load-life exponent of 5.2, which correlated with the Zaretsky model. The use of the ANSI/ABMA and ISO standards load-life exponent of 10/3 to predict roller bearing life is not reflective of modern roller bearings and will underpredict bearing lives.

The flexural properties of endodontic post materials.

PubMed

Stewardson, Dominic A; Shortall, Adrian C; Marquis, Peter M; Lumley, Philip J

2010-08-01

To measure the flexural strengths and moduli of endodontic post materials and to assess the effect on the calculated flexural properties of varying the diameter/length (D/L) ratio of three-point bend test samples. Three-point bend testing of samples of 2mm diameter metal and fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) rods was carried out and the mechanical properties calculated at support widths of 16 mm, 32 mm and 64 mm. Weibull analysis was performed on the strength data. The flexural strengths of all the FRC post materials exceeded the yield strengths of the gold and stainless steel samples; the flexural strengths of two FRC materials were comparable with the yield strength of titanium. Stainless steel recorded the highest flexural modulus while the titanium and the two carbon fiber materials exhibited similar values just exceeding that of gold. The remaining glass fiber materials were of lower modulus within the range of 41-57 GPa. Weibull modulus values for the FRC materials ranged from 16.77 to 30.09. Decreasing the L/D ratio produced a marked decrease in flexural modulus for all materials. The flexural strengths of FRC endodontic post materials as new generally exceed the yield strengths of metals from which endodontic posts are made. The high Weibull modulus values suggest good clinical reliability of FRC posts. The flexural modulus values of the tested posts were from 2-6 times (FRC) to 4-10 times (metal) that of dentin. Valid measurement of flexural properties of endodontic post materials requires that test samples have appropriate L/D ratios. Copyright 2010 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of environment on fracture toughness of 96 wt pct alumina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Tikare, Veena; Salem, Jonathan A.

1993-01-01

An effort is made to deepen understanding of environmental effects on the fracture toughness of an alumina composition that contains a residual glassy phase, by ascertaining the fracture toughness under atmospheric conditions in such varied environments as air distilled water, silicone oil, and liquid nitrogen. Fracture toughness was determined via the single-edge-precracked beam technique. Weibull strength parameters are compared for polished specimens tested both in air and silicone environments.

Scaling of strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures based on atomistic fracture mechanics

PubMed Central

Bažant, Zdeněk P.; Le, Jia-Liang; Bazant, Martin Z.

2009-01-01

The failure probability of engineering structures such as aircraft, bridges, dams, nuclear structures, and ships, as well as microelectronic components and medical implants, must be kept extremely low, typically <10−6. The safety factors needed to ensure it have so far been assessed empirically. For perfectly ductile and perfectly brittle structures, the empirical approach is sufficient because the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of random material strength is known and fixed. However, such an approach is insufficient for structures consisting of quasibrittle materials, which are brittle materials with inhomogeneities that are not negligible compared with the structure size. The reason is that the strength cdf of quasibrittle structure varies from Gaussian to Weibullian as the structure size increases. In this article, a recently proposed theory for the strength cdf of quasibrittle structure is refined by deriving it from fracture mechanics of nanocracks propagating by small, activation-energy-controlled, random jumps through the atomic lattice. This refinement also provides a plausible physical justification of the power law for subcritical creep crack growth, hitherto considered empirical. The theory is further extended to predict the cdf of structural lifetime at constant load, which is shown to be size- and geometry-dependent. The size effects on structure strength and lifetime are shown to be related and the latter to be much stronger. The theory fits previously unexplained deviations of experimental strength and lifetime histograms from the Weibull distribution. Finally, a boundary layer method for numerical calculation of the cdf of structural strength and lifetime is outlined. PMID:19561294

End-of-life flows of multiple cycle consumer products.

PubMed

Tsiliyannis, C A

2011-11-01

Explicit expressions for the end-of-life flows (EOL) of single and multiple cycle products (MCPs) are presented, including deterministic and stochastic EOL exit. The expressions are given in terms of the physical parameters (maximum lifetime, T, annual cycling frequency, f, number of cycles, N, and early discard or usage loss). EOL flows are also obtained for hi-tech products, which are rapidly renewed and thus may not attain steady state (e.g., electronic products, passenger cars). A ten-step recursive procedure for obtaining the dynamic EOL flow evolution is proposed. Applications of the EOL expressions and the ten-step procedure are given for electric household appliances, industrial machinery, tyres, vehicles and buildings, both for deterministic and stochastic EOL exit, (normal, Weibull and uniform exit distributions). The effect of the physical parameters and the stochastic characteristics on the EOL flow is investigated in the examples: it is shown that the EOL flow profile is determined primarily by the early discard dynamics; it also depends strongly on longevity and cycling frequency: higher lifetime or early discard/loss imply lower dynamic and steady state EOL flows. The stochastic exit shapes the overall EOL dynamic profile: Under symmetric EOL exit distribution, as the variance of the distribution increases (uniform to normal to deterministic) the initial EOL flow rise becomes steeper but the steady state or maximum EOL flow level is lower. The steepest EOL flow profile, featuring the highest steady state or maximum level, as well, corresponds to skew, earlier shifted EOL exit (e.g., Weibull). Since the EOL flow of returned products consists the sink of the reuse/remanufacturing cycle (sink to recycle) the results may be used in closed loop product lifecycle management operations for scheduling and sizing reverse manufacturing and for planning recycle logistics. Decoupling and quantification of both the full age EOL and of the early discard flows is useful, the latter being the target of enacted legislation aiming at increasing reuse. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Flexural Fatigue Strength of Self Compacting Fibre Reinforced Concrete Beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murali, G.; Sudar Celestina, J. P. Arul; Subhashini, N.; Vigneshwari, M.

2017-07-01

This study presents the extensive statistical investigation ofvariations in flexural fatigue life of self-compacting Fibrous Concrete (FC) beams. For this purpose, the experimental data of earlier researchers were examined by two parameter Weibull distribution.Two methods namely Graphical and moment wereused to analyse the variations in experimental data and the results have been presented in the form of probability of survival. The Weibull parameters values obtained from graphical and method of moments are precise. At 0.7 stress level, the fatigue life shows 59861 cyclesfor areliability of 90%.

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1989-01-01

A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

Categorical Data Analysis Using a Skewed Weibull Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Renault; Sinha, Debajyoti; Dey, Dipak; Polpo, Adriano

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and complementary log-log) can be obtained as limiting cases. We further compare the proposed model with some other asymmetrical models. The Bayesian as well as frequentist estimation procedures for binomial and multinomial data responses are presented in details. The analysis of two data sets to show the efficiency of the proposed model is performed.

Markov Transition Model to Dementia with Death as a Competing Event.

PubMed

Wei, Shaoceng; Xu, Liou; Kryscio, Richard J

2014-12-01

This study evaluates the effect of death as a competing event to the development of dementia in a longitudinal study of the cognitive status of elderly subjects. A multi-state Markov model with three transient states: intact cognition, mild cognitive impairment (M.C.I.) and global impairment (G.I.) and one absorbing state: dementia is used to model the cognitive panel data; transitions among states depend on four covariates age, education, prior state (intact cognition, or M.C.I., or G.I.) and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-4 allele (APOE4). A Weibull model and a Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) model are used to fit the survival from death based on age at entry and the APOE4 status. A shared random effect correlates this survival time with the transition model. Simulation studies determine the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates to the violations of the Weibull and Cox PH model assumptions. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a longitudinal cohort of 672 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun.

Markov Transition Model to Dementia with Death as a Competing Event

PubMed Central

Wei, Shaoceng; Xu, Liou; Kryscio, Richard J.

2014-01-01

This study evaluates the effect of death as a competing event to the development of dementia in a longitudinal study of the cognitive status of elderly subjects. A multi-state Markov model with three transient states: intact cognition, mild cognitive impairment (M.C.I.) and global impairment (G.I.) and one absorbing state: dementia is used to model the cognitive panel data; transitions among states depend on four covariates age, education, prior state (intact cognition, or M.C.I., or G.I.) and the presence/absence of an apolipoprotein E-4 allele (APOE4). A Weibull model and a Cox proportional hazards (Cox PH) model are used to fit the survival from death based on age at entry and the APOE4 status. A shared random effect correlates this survival time with the transition model. Simulation studies determine the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates to the violations of the Weibull and Cox PH model assumptions. Results are illustrated with an application to the Nun Study, a longitudinal cohort of 672 participants 75+ years of age at baseline and followed longitudinally with up to ten cognitive assessments per nun. PMID:25110380

Fabrication Quality Analysis of a Fiber Optic Refractive Index Sensor Created by CO2 Laser Machining

PubMed Central

Chen, Chien-Hsing; Yeh, Bo-Kuan; Tang, Jaw-Luen; Wu, Wei-Te

2013-01-01

This study investigates the CO2 laser-stripped partial cladding of silica-based optic fibers with a core diameter of 400 μm, which enables them to sense the refractive index of the surrounding environment. However, inappropriate treatments during the machining process can generate a number of defects in the optic fiber sensors. Therefore, the quality of optic fiber sensors fabricated using CO2 laser machining must be analyzed. The results show that analysis of the fiber core size after machining can provide preliminary defect detection, and qualitative analysis of the optical transmission defects can be used to identify imperfections that are difficult to observe through size analysis. To more precisely and quantitatively detect fabrication defects, we included a tensile test and numerical aperture measurements in this study. After a series of quality inspections, we proposed improvements to the existing CO2 laser machining parameters, namely, a vertical scanning pathway, 4 W of power, and a feed rate of 9.45 cm/s. Using these improved parameters, we created optical fiber sensors with a core diameter of approximately 400 μm, no obvious optical transmission defects, a numerical aperture of 0.52 ± 0.019, a 0.886 Weibull modulus, and a 1.186 Weibull-shaped parameter. Finally, we used the optical fiber sensor fabricated using the improved parameters to measure the refractive indices of various solutions. The results show that a refractive-index resolution of 1.8 × 10−4 RIU (linear fitting R2 = 0.954) was achieved for sucrose solutions with refractive indices ranging between 1.333 and 1.383. We also adopted the particle plasmon resonance sensing scheme using the fabricated optical fibers. The results provided additional information, specifically, a superior sensor resolution of 5.73 × 10−5 RIU, and greater linearity at R2 = 0.999. PMID:23535636

Comparison between a Weibull proportional hazards model and a linear model for predicting the genetic merit of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity.

PubMed

Caraviello, D Z; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D

2004-05-01

Predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity were calculated using a Weibull proportional hazards sire model and compared with predictions from a conventional linear animal model. Culling data from 268,008 Jersey cows with first calving from 1981 to 2000 were used. The proportional hazards model included time-dependent effects of herd-year-season contemporary group and parity by stage of lactation interaction, as well as time-independent effects of sire and age at first calving. Sire variances and parameters of the Weibull distribution were estimated, providing heritability estimates of 4.7% on the log scale and 18.0% on the original scale. The PTA of each sire was expressed as the expected risk of culling relative to daughters of an average sire. Risk ratios (RR) ranged from 0.7 to 1.3, indicating that the risk of culling for daughters of the best sires was 30% lower than for daughters of average sires and nearly 50% lower than than for daughters of the poorest sires. Sire PTA from the proportional hazards model were compared with PTA from a linear model similar to that used for routine national genetic evaluation of length of productive life (PL) using cross-validation in independent samples of herds. Models were compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to second, third, fourth, or fifth lactation on their sires' PTA values, with alternative approaches for weighting the contribution of each sire. Models were also compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 mo of life. The proportional hazards model generally yielded more accurate predictions according to these criteria, but differences in predictive ability between methods were smaller when using a Kullback-Leibler distance than with other approaches. Results of this study suggest that survival analysis methodology may provide more accurate predictions of genetic merit for longevity than conventional linear models.

Abutment design for implant-supported indirect composite molar crowns: reliability and fractography.

PubMed

Bonfante, Estevam Augusto; Suzuki, Marcelo; Lubelski, William; Thompson, Van P; de Carvalho, Ricardo Marins; Witek, Lukasz; Coelho, Paulo G

2012-12-01

To investigate the reliability of titanium abutments veneered with indirect composites for implant-supported crowns and the possibility to trace back the fracture origin by qualitative fractographic analysis. Large base (LB) (6.4-mm diameter base, with a 4-mm high cone in the center for composite retention), small base (SB-4) (5.2-mm base, 4-mm high cone), and small base with cone shortened to 2 mm (SB-2) Ti abutments were used. Each abutment received incremental layers of indirect resin composite until completing the anatomy of a maxillary molar crown. Step-stress accelerated-life fatigue testing (n = 18 each) was performed in water. Weibull curves with use stress of 200 N for 50,000 and 100,000 cycles were calculated. Probability Weibull plots examined the differences between groups. Specimens were inspected in light-polarized and scanning electron microscopes for fractographic analysis. Use level probability Weibull plots showed Beta values of 0.27 for LB, 0.32 for SB-4, and 0.26 for SB-2, indicating that failures were not influenced by fatigue and damage accumulation. The data replotted as Weibull distribution showed no significant difference in the characteristic strengths between LB (794 N) and SB-4 abutments (836 N), which were both significantly higher than SB-2 (601 N). Failure mode was cohesive within the composite for all groups. Fractographic markings showed that failures initiated at the indentation area and propagated toward the margins of cohesively failed composite. Reliability was not influenced by abutment design. Qualitative fractographic analysis of the failed indirect composite was feasible. © 2012 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Bonus-Malus System with the Claim Frequency Distribution is Geometric and the Severity Distribution is Truncated Weibull

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santi, D. N.; Purnaba, I. G. P.; Mangku, I. W.

2016-01-01

Bonus-Malus system is said to be optimal if it is financially balanced for insurance companies and fair for policyholders. Previous research about Bonus-Malus system concern with the determination of the risk premium which applied to all of the severity that guaranteed by the insurance company. In fact, not all of the severity that proposed by policyholder may be covered by insurance company. When the insurance company sets a maximum bound of the severity incurred, so it is necessary to modify the model of the severity distribution into the severity bound distribution. In this paper, optimal Bonus-Malus system is compound of claim frequency component has geometric distribution and severity component has truncated Weibull distribution is discussed. The number of claims considered to follow a Poisson distribution, and the expected number λ is exponentially distributed, so the number of claims has a geometric distribution. The severity with a given parameter θ is considered to have a truncated exponential distribution is modelled using the Levy distribution, so the severity have a truncated Weibull distribution.

A Model Based on Environmental Factors for Diameter Distribution in Black Wattle in Brazil

PubMed Central

Sanquetta, Carlos Roberto; Behling, Alexandre; Dalla Corte, Ana Paula; Péllico Netto, Sylvio; Rodrigues, Aurelio Lourenço; Simon, Augusto Arlindo

2014-01-01

This article discusses the dynamics of a diameter distribution in stands of black wattle throughout its growth cycle using the Weibull probability density function. Moreover, the parameters of this distribution were related to environmental variables from meteorological data and surface soil horizon with the aim of finding a model for diameter distribution which their coefficients were related to the environmental variables. We found that the diameter distribution of the stand changes only slightly over time and that the estimators of the Weibull function are correlated with various environmental variables, with accumulated rainfall foremost among them. Thus, a model was obtained in which the estimators of the Weibull function are dependent on rainfall. Such a function can have important applications, such as in simulating growth potential in regions where historical growth data is lacking, as well as the behavior of the stand under different environmental conditions. The model can also be used to project growth in diameter, based on the rainfall affecting the forest over a certain time period. PMID:24932909

Migration kinetics of four photo-initiators from paper food packaging to solid food simulants.

PubMed

Cai, Huimei; Ji, Shuilin; Zhang, Juzhou; Tao, Gushuai; Peng, Chuanyi; Hou, Ruyan; Zhang, Liang; Sun, Yue; Wan, Xiaochun

2017-09-01

The migration behaviour of four photo-initiators (BP, EHA, MBP and Irgacure 907) was studied by 'printing' onto four different food-packaging materials (Kraft paper, white cardboard, Polyethylene (PE)-coated paper and composite paper) and tracking movement into the food simulant: Tenax-TA (porous polymer 2,6-diphenyl furan resin). The results indicated that the migration of the photo-initiators was related to the molecular weight and log K o/w of each photo-initiator. At different temperatures, the migration rates of the photo-initiators were different in papers with different thicknesses. The amount of each photo-initiator found in the food was closely related to the food matrix. The Weibull model was used to predict the migration load into the food simulants by calculating the parameters τ and β and determining the relationship of the two parameters with temperature and paper thickness. The established Weibull model was then used to predict the migration of each photo-initiator with respect to different foods. A two-parameter Weibull model fitted the actual situation, with some deviation from the actual migration amount.

Time-dependent strength degradation of a siliconized silicon carbide determined by dynamic fatigue

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breder, K.

1995-10-01

Both fast-fracture strength and strength as a function of stressing rate at room temperature, 1,100, and 1,400 C were measured for a siliconized SiC. The fast-fracture strength increased slightly from 386 MPa at room temperature to 424 MPa at 1,100 C and then dropped to 308 MPa at 1,400 C. The Weibull moduli at room temperature and 1,100 were 10.8 and 7.8, respectively, whereas, at 1,400 C, the Weibull modulus was 2.8. The very low Weibull modulus at 1,400 C was due to the existence of two exclusive flaw populations with very different characteristic strengths. The data were reanalyzed usingmore » two exclusive flaw populations. The ceramic showed no slow crack growth (SCG), as measured by dynamic fatigue at 1,100 C, but, at 1,400 C, an SCG parameter, n, of 15.5 was measured. Fractography showed SCG zones consisting of cracks grown out from silicon-rich areas. Time-to-failure predictions at given levels of failure probabilities were performed.« less

Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2008-10-01

The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade durations, where the empirical density functions of the normalized intertrade durations of all 23 stocks collapse onto a single curve. The scaling pattern is also observed in the intertrade duration distributions for filled and partially filled trades and in the conditional distributions. The ensemble distributions for all stocks are modeled by the Weibull and the Tsallis q-exponential distributions. Maximum likelihood estimation shows that the Weibull distribution outperforms the q-exponential for not-too-large intertrade durations which account for more than 98.5% of the data. Alternatively, nonlinear least-squares estimation selects the q-exponential as a better model, in which the optimization is conducted on the distance between empirical and theoretical values of the logarithmic probability densities. The distribution of intertrade durations is Weibull followed by a power-law tail with an asymptotic tail exponent close to 3.

A New Insight into the Earthquake Recurrence Studies from the Three-parameter Generalized Exponential Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasari, S.; Kundu, D.; Dikshit, O.

2012-12-01

Earthquake recurrence interval is one of the important ingredients towards probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for any location. Exponential, gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions are quite established probability models in this recurrence interval estimation. However, they have certain shortcomings too. Thus, it is imperative to search for some alternative sophisticated distributions. In this paper, we introduce a three-parameter (location, scale and shape) exponentiated exponential distribution and investigate the scope of this distribution as an alternative of the afore-mentioned distributions in earthquake recurrence studies. This distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution. Despite of its complicated form, it is widely accepted in medical and biological applications. Furthermore, it shares many physical properties with gamma and Weibull family. Unlike gamma distribution, the hazard function of generalized exponential distribution can be easily computed even if the shape parameter is not an integer. To contemplate the plausibility of this model, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0) spanning for the period 1846 to 1995 from North-East Himalayan region (20-32 deg N and 87-100 deg E) has been used. The model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of moment estimator (MOME). No geological or geophysical evidences have been considered in this calculation. The estimated conditional probability reaches quite high after about a decade for an elapsed time of 17 years (i.e. 2012). Moreover, this study shows that the generalized exponential distribution fits the above data events more closely compared to the conventional models and hence it is tentatively concluded that generalized exponential distribution can be effectively considered in earthquake recurrence studies.

Influence of Endodontic Treatment and Retreatment on the Fatigue Failure Load, Numbers of Cycles for Failure, and Survival Rates of Human Canine Teeth.

PubMed

Missau, Taiane; De Carlo Bello, Mariana; Michelon, Carina; Mastella Lang, Pauline; Kalil Pereira, Gabriel; Baldissara, Paolo; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Souza Bier, Carlos Alexandre; Pivetta Rippe, Marília

2017-12-01

This study evaluated the effects of endodontic treatment and retreatment on the fatigue failure load, numbers of cycles for failure, and survival rates of canine teeth. Sixty extracted canine teeth, each with a single root canal, were selected and randomly divided into 4 groups (n = 15): untreated, teeth without endodontic intervention; prepared, teeth subjected only to rotary instrumentation; filled, teeth receiving complete endodontic treatment; and retreated, teeth retreated endodontically. After the different endodontic interventions, the specimens were subjected to fatigue testing by the stepwise method: 200 N (× 5000 load pulses), 300 N, 400 N, 500 N, 600 N, 800 N, and 900 N at a maximum of 30,000 load pulses each or the occurrence of fracture. Data from load to failure and numbers of cycles for fracture were recorded and subjected to Kaplan-Meier and Log Rank tests (P < .05), in addition to Weibull analysis. The fractures of the specimens were classified as repairable or catastrophic. The retreated, filled, and untreated groups presented statistically significantly higher fatigue failure loads and numbers of cycles for failure than did the prepared group. Weibull analysis showed no statistically significant difference among the treatments for characteristic load to failure and characteristic number of cycles for failure, although, for number of cycles, a higher Weibull modulus was observed in filled and retreated conditions. The predominant mode of failure was catastrophic. Teeth subjected to complete endodontic treatment and retreatment behaved similarly in terms of fatigue failure load and number of cycles to failure when compared with untreated teeth. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A spatial scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution.

PubMed

Bhatt, Vijaya; Tiwari, Neeraj

2014-05-20

The spatial scan statistic has been developed as a geographical cluster detection analysis tool for different types of data sets such as Bernoulli, Poisson, ordinal, normal and exponential. We propose a scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution. It may also be used for other survival distributions, such as exponential, gamma, and log normal. The proposed method is applied on the survival data of tuberculosis patients for the years 2004-2005 in Nainital district of Uttarakhand, India. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well for different survival distribution functions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Simulation of parametric model towards the fixed covariate of right censored lung cancer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Ridwan Olaniran, Oyebayo; Enera Amran, Syahila

2017-09-01

In this study, simulation procedure was applied to measure the fixed covariate of right censored data by using parametric survival model. The scale and shape parameter were modified to differentiate the analysis of parametric regression survival model. Statistically, the biases, mean biases and the coverage probability were used in this analysis. Consequently, different sample sizes were employed to distinguish the impact of parametric regression model towards right censored data with 50, 100, 150 and 200 number of sample. R-statistical software was utilised to develop the coding simulation with right censored data. Besides, the final model of right censored simulation was compared with the right censored lung cancer data in Malaysia. It was found that different values of shape and scale parameter with different sample size, help to improve the simulation strategy for right censored data and Weibull regression survival model is suitable fit towards the simulation of survival of lung cancer patients data in Malaysia.

Strength evaluation test of pressureless-sintered silicon nitride at room temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsusue, K.; Takahara, K.; Hashimoto, R.

1984-01-01

In order to study strength characteristics at room temperature and the strength evaluating method of ceramic materials, the following tests were conducted on pressureless sintered silicon nitride specimens: bending tests, the three tensile tests of rectangular plates, holed plates, and notched plates, and spin tests of centrally holed disks. The relationship between the mean strength of specimens and the effective volume of specimens are examined using Weibull's theory. The effect of surface grinding on the strength of specimens is discussed.

Degradation kinetics of chlorogenic acid at various pH values and effects of ascorbic acid and epigallocatechin gallate on its stability under alkaline conditions.

PubMed

Narita, Yusaku; Inouye, Kuniyo

2013-01-30

5-Caffeoylquinic acid (5-CQA) is generally referred to as chlorogenic acid and exhibits various biological activities such as antioxidant activity and porcine pancreas α-amylase inhibitory activities. 5-CQA may be useful as an antioxidant for food and to prevent diabetes and obesity. The degradation of 5-CQA and caffeic acid (CA) in an aqueous solution at 37 °C and pH 5.0-9.0 was studied. The degradation of 5-CQA and CA, demonstrating time and pH dependence (i.e., the rate constant, k, was higher at higher pH), was satisfactorily described by the Weibull equation. The stability of 5-CQA at pH 7.4 and 9.0 was improved by adding (-)-epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) and ascorbic acid (AA). Moreover, the degradation of 5-CQA in the presence of EGCG or AA could be described by the Weibull equation. The k value in the presence of EGCG or AA was dependent on their concentration.

Structural Design Parameters for Germanium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jon; Rogers, Richard; Baker, Eric

2017-01-01

The fracture toughness and slow crack growth parameters of germanium supplied as single crystal beams and coarse grain disks were measured. Although germanium is anisotropic (A* 1.7), it is not as anisotropic as SiC, NiAl, or Cu. Thus the fracture toughness was similar on the 100, 110, and 111 planes, however, measurements associated with randomly oriented grinding cracks were 6 to 30 higher. Crack extension in ring loaded disks occurred on the 111 planes due to both the lower fracture energy and the higher stresses on stiff 111 planes. Germanium exhibits a Weibull scale effect, but does not exhibit significant slow crack growth in distilled water. (n 100), implying that design for quasi static loading can be performed with scaled strength statistics. Practical values for engineering design are a fracture toughness of 0.69 0.02 MPam (megapascals per square root meter) and a Weibull modulus of m 6 2. For well ground and reasonable handled coupons, average fracture strength should be greater than 40 megapascals. Aggregate, polycrystalline elastic constants are Epoly 131 gigapascals, vpoly 0.22.

Fracture-Toughness Analysis in Transition-Temperature Region of Three American Petroleum Institute X70 and X80 Pipeline Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Sang Yong; Woo, Kuk Je; Hwang, Byoungchul; Kim, Sangho; Lee, Sunghak

2009-04-01

The fracture toughness in the transition-temperature region of three American Petroleum Institute (API) X70 and X80 pipeline steels was analyzed in accordance with the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E1921-05 standard test method. The elastic-plastic cleavage fracture toughness ( K Jc ) was determined by three-point bend tests, using precracked Charpy V-notch (PCVN) specimens; the measured K Jc values were then interpreted by the three-parameter Weibull distribution. The fracture-toughness test results indicated that the master curve and the 98 pct confidence curves explained the variation in the measured fracture toughness well. The reference temperatures obtained from the fracture-toughness test and index temperatures obtained from the Charpy impact test were lowest in the X70 steel rolled in the two-phase region, because this steel had smaller effective grains and the lowest volume fraction of hard phases. In this steel, few hard phases led to a higher resistance to cleavage crack initiation, and the smaller effective grain size led to a higher possibility of crack arrest, thereby resulting in the best overall fracture properties. Measured reference temperatures were then comparatively analyzed with the index temperatures obtained from the Charpy impact test, and the effects of microstructures on these temperatures were discussed.

Does artificial aging affect mechanical properties of CAD/CAM composite materials.

PubMed

Egilmez, Ferhan; Ergun, Gulfem; Cekic-Nagas, Isil; Vallittu, Pekka K; Lassila, Lippo V J

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the flexural strength and Weibull characteristics of different CAD/CAM materials after different in vitro aging conditions. The specimens were randomly assigned to one of the six in vitro aging conditions: (1) water storage (37°C, 3 weeks), (2) boiling water (24h), (3) hydrochloric acid exposure (pH: 1.2, 24h), (4) autoclave treatment (134°C, 200kPa, 12h), (5) thermal cycling (5000 times, 5-55°C), (6) cyclic loading (100N, 50,000 cycles). No treatment was applied to the specimens in control group. Three-point bending test was used for the calculation of flexural strength. The reliability of the strength was assessed by Weibull distribution. Surface roughness and topography was examined by coherence scanning interferometry. Evaluated parameters were compared using the Kruskall-Wallis or Mann-Whitney U test. Water storage, autoclave treatment and thermal cycling significantly decreased the flexural strength of all materials (p<0.05), whereas HCl exposure or cyclic loading did not affect the properties (p>0.05). Weibull moduli of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate were similar with control. Vita Enamic ® exhibited similar Weibull moduli in all aging groups except the HCl treated group (p>0.05). R a values of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate were in the range of 0.053-0.088μm in the aged groups. However R a results of Vita Enamic ® were larger than 0.2μm. Flexural strength of newly developed restorative CAD/CAM materials was significantly decreased by artificial aging. Cyclic loading or HCl exposure does not affect to the flexural strength and structural reliability of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate. Copyright © 2017 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability, failure probability, and strength of resin-based materials for CAD/CAM restorations

PubMed Central

Lim, Kiatlin; Yap, Adrian U-Jin; Agarwalla, Shruti Vidhawan; Tan, Keson Beng-Choon; Rosa, Vinicius

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: This study investigated the Weibull parameters and 5% fracture probability of direct, indirect composites, and CAD/CAM composites. Material and Methods: Discshaped (12 mm diameter x 1 mm thick) specimens were prepared for a direct composite [Z100 (ZO), 3M-ESPE], an indirect laboratory composite [Ceramage (CM), Shofu], and two CAD/CAM composites [Lava Ultimate (LU), 3M ESPE; Vita Enamic (VE), Vita Zahnfabrik] restorations (n=30 for each group). The specimens were polished, stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C. Weibull parameters (m= modulus of Weibull, σ0= characteristic strength) and flexural strength for 5% fracture probability (σ5%) were determined using a piston-on-three-balls device at 1 MPa/s in distilled water. Statistical analysis for biaxial flexural strength analysis were performed either by both one-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc (α=0.05) or by Pearson's correlation test. Results: Ranking of m was: VE (19.5), LU (14.5), CM (11.7), and ZO (9.6). Ranking of σ0 (MPa) was: LU (218.1), ZO (210.4), CM (209.0), and VE (126.5). σ5% (MPa) was 177.9 for LU, 163.2 for CM, 154.7 for Z0, and 108.7 for VE. There was no significant difference in the m for ZO, CM, and LU. VE presented the highest m value and significantly higher than ZO. For σ0 and σ5%, ZO, CM, and LU were similar but higher than VE. Conclusion: The strength characteristics of CAD/ CAM composites vary according to their composition and microstructure. VE presented the lowest strength and highest Weibull modulus among the materials. PMID:27812614

Four Theorems on the Psychometric Function

PubMed Central

May, Keith A.; Solomon, Joshua A.

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, . This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull “slope” parameter, , can be approximated by , where is the of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for and , from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when , . We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4–0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian. PMID:24124456

Fractional differential equations based modeling of microbial survival and growth curves: model development and experimental validation.

PubMed

Kaur, A; Takhar, P S; Smith, D M; Mann, J E; Brashears, M M

2008-10-01

A fractional differential equations (FDEs)-based theory involving 1- and 2-term equations was developed to predict the nonlinear survival and growth curves of foodborne pathogens. It is interesting to note that the solution of 1-term FDE leads to the Weibull model. Nonlinear regression (Gauss-Newton method) was performed to calculate the parameters of the 1-term and 2-term FDEs. The experimental inactivation data of Salmonella cocktail in ground turkey breast, ground turkey thigh, and pork shoulder; and cocktail of Salmonella, E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes in ground beef exposed at isothermal cooking conditions of 50 to 66 degrees C were used for validation. To evaluate the performance of 2-term FDE in predicting the growth curves-growth of Salmonella typhimurium, Salmonella Enteritidis, and background flora in ground pork and boneless pork chops; and E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef in the temperature range of 22.2 to 4.4 degrees C were chosen. A program was written in Matlab to predict the model parameters and survival and growth curves. Two-term FDE was more successful in describing the complex shapes of microbial survival and growth curves as compared to the linear and Weibull models. Predicted curves of 2-term FDE had higher magnitudes of R(2) (0.89 to 0.99) and lower magnitudes of root mean square error (0.0182 to 0.5461) for all experimental cases in comparison to the linear and Weibull models. This model was capable of predicting the tails in survival curves, which was not possible using Weibull and linear models. The developed model can be used for other foodborne pathogens in a variety of food products to study the destruction and growth behavior.

A citation-based assessment of the performance of U.S. boiling water reactors following extended power up-rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidrich, Brenden J.

Nuclear power plants produce 20 percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. Nuclear generated electricity is increasingly valuable to a utility because it can be produced at a low marginal cost and it does not release any carbon dioxide. It can also be a hedge against uncertain fossil fuel prices. The construction of new nuclear power plants in the U.S. is cautiously moving forward, restrained by high capital costs. Since 1998, nuclear utilities have been increasing the power output of their reactors by implementing extended power up-rates. Power increases of up to 20 percent are allowed under this process. The equivalent of nine large power plants has been added via extended power up-rates. These up-rates require the replacement of large capital equipment and are often performed in concert with other plant life extension activities such as license renewals. This dissertation examines the effect of these extended power up-rates on the safety performance of U.S. boiling water reactors. Licensing event reports are submitted by the utilities to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal nuclear regulator, for a wide range of abnormal events. Two methods are used to examine the effect of extended power up-rates on the frequency of abnormal events at the reactors. The Crow/AMSAA model, a univariate technique is used to determine if the implementation of an extended power up-rate affects the rate of abnormal events. The method has a long history in the aerospace industry and in the military. At a 95-percent confidence level, the rate of events requiring the submission of a licensing event report decreases following the implementation of an extended power up-rate. It is hypothesized that the improvement in performance is tied to the equipment replacement and refurbishment that is performed as part of the up-rate process. The reactor performance is also analyzed using the proportional hazards model. This technique allows for the estimation of the effects of multiple independent variables on the event rate. Both the Cox and Weibull formulations were tested. The Cox formulation is more commonly used in survival analysis because of its flexibility. The best Cox model included fixed effects at the multi-reactor site level. The Weibull parametric formulation has the same base hazard rate as the Crow/AMSAA model. This theoretical connection was confirmed through a series of tests that demonstrated both models predicted the same base hazard rates. The Weibull formulation produced a model with most of the same statistically significant variables as the Cox model. The beneficial effect of extended power up-rates was predicted in the proportional hazards models as well as the Crow/AMSAA model. The Weibull model also indicated an effect that can be traced back to a plant’s construction. Performance was also found to improve in plants that had been divested from their original owners. This research developed a consistent evaluation toolkit for nuclear power plant performance using either a univariate method that allows for simple graphical evaluation at its heart or a more complex multivariate method that includes the effects of several independent variables with data that are available from public sources. Utilities or regulators with access to proprietary data may be able to expand upon this research with additional data that is not readily available to an academic researcher. Even without access to special data, the methods developed are valuable tools in evaluating and predicting nuclear power plant reliability performance.

The Application of a Novel Ceramic Liner Improves Bonding between Zirconia and Veneering Porcelain

PubMed Central

Lee, Hee-Sung

2017-01-01

The adhesion of porcelain to zirconia is a key factor in the success of bilayered restorations. In this study, the efficacy of a novel experimental liner (EL) containing zirconia for improved bonding between zirconia and veneering porcelain was tested. Four ELs containing various concentrations (0, 3.0, 6.0, and 9.0 wt %) of zirconia were prepared. Testing determined the most effective EL (EL3 containing 3.0 wt % zirconia) in terms of shear bond strength value (n = 15). Three different bar-shaped zirconia/porcelain bilayer specimens were prepared for a three-point flexural strength (TPFS) test (n = 15): no-liner (NL), commercial liner (CL), and EL3. Specimens were tested for TPFS with the porcelain under tension and the maximum load was measured at the first sign of fracture. The strength data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test (α = 0.05) as well as Weibull distribution. When compared to NL, the CL application had no effect, while the EL3 application had a significant positive effect (p < 0.001) on the flexural strength. Weibull analysis also revealed the highest shape and scale parameters for group EL3. Within the limitations of this study, the novel ceramic liner containing 3.0 wt % zirconia (EL3) significantly enhanced the zirconia/porcelain interfacial bonding. PMID:28869512

Effect of the medium characteristics and the heating and cooling rates on the nonisothermal heat resistance of Bacillus sporothermodurans IC4 spores.

PubMed

Esteban, María-Dolores; Huertas, Juan-Pablo; Fernández, Pablo S; Palop, Alfredo

2013-05-01

In recent years, highly thermo-resistant mesophilic spore-forming bacteria belonging to the species Bacillus sporothermodurans have caused non-sterility problems in industrial sterilization processes. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of the heating medium characteristics (pH and buffer/food) on the thermal inactivation of B. sporothermodurans spores when exposed to isothermal and non-isothermal heating and cooling treatments and the suitability of non-linear Weibull and Geeraaerd models to predict the survivors of these thermal treatments. Thermal treatments were carried out in pH 3, 5 and 7 McIlvaine buffer and in a courgette soup. Isothermal survival curves showed shoulders that were accurately characterized by means of both models. A clear effect of the pH of the heating medium was observed, decreasing the D120 value from pH 7 to pH 3 buffer down to one third. Differences in heat resistance were similar, regardless of the model used and were kept at all temperatures tested. The heat resistance in courgette soup was similar to that shown in pH 7 buffer. When the heat resistance values obtained under isothermal conditions were used to predict the survival in the non-isothermical experiments, the predictions estimated the experimental data quite accurately, both with Weibull and Geeraerd models. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Weibull Multiplicative Model and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks for Dark-Spot Detection from SAR Imagery

PubMed Central

Taravat, Alireza; Oppelt, Natascha

2014-01-01

Oil spills represent a major threat to ocean ecosystems and their environmental status. Previous studies have shown that Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), as its recording is independent of clouds and weather, can be effectively used for the detection and classification of oil spills. Dark formation detection is the first and critical stage in oil-spill detection procedures. In this paper, a novel approach for automated dark-spot detection in SAR imagery is presented. A new approach from the combination of adaptive Weibull Multiplicative Model (WMM) and MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) neural networks is proposed to differentiate between dark spots and the background. The results have been compared with the results of a model combining non-adaptive WMM and pulse coupled neural networks. The presented approach overcomes the non-adaptive WMM filter setting parameters by developing an adaptive WMM model which is a step ahead towards a full automatic dark spot detection. The proposed approach was tested on 60 ENVISAT and ERS2 images which contained dark spots. For the overall dataset, an average accuracy of 94.65% was obtained. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very robust and effective where the non-adaptive WMM & pulse coupled neural network (PCNN) model generates poor accuracies. PMID:25474376

Effect of Endocrown Restorations with Different CAD/CAM Materials: 3D Finite Element and Weibull Analyses

PubMed Central

Ulusoy, Nuran

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of two endocrown designs and computer aided design/manufacturing (CAD/CAM) materials on stress distribution and failure probability of restorations applied to severely damaged endodontically treated maxillary first premolar tooth (MFP). Two types of designs without and with 3 mm intraradicular extensions, endocrown (E) and modified endocrown (ME), were modeled on a 3D Finite element (FE) model of the MFP. Vitablocks Mark II (VMII), Vita Enamic (VE), and Lava Ultimate (LU) CAD/CAM materials were used for each type of design. von Mises and maximum principle values were evaluated and the Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long term failure probability. Regarding the stresses that occurred in enamel, for each group of material, ME restoration design transmitted less stress than endocrown. During normal occlusal function, the overall failure probability was minimum for ME with VMII. ME restoration design with VE was the best restorative option for premolar teeth with extensive loss of coronal structure under high occlusal loads. Therefore, ME design could be a favorable treatment option for MFPs with missing palatal cusp. Among the CAD/CAM materials tested, VMII and VE were found to be more tooth-friendly than LU. PMID:29119108

Calling patterns in human communication dynamics

PubMed Central

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Li, Ming-Xia; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-01-01

Modern technologies not only provide a variety of communication modes (e.g., texting, cell phone conversation, and online instant messaging), but also detailed electronic traces of these communications between individuals. These electronic traces indicate that the interactions occur in temporal bursts. Here, we study intercall duration of communications of the 100,000 most active cell phone users of a Chinese mobile phone operator. We confirm that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff at the population level but find differences when focusing on individual users. We apply statistical tests at the individual level and find that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution for only 3,460 individuals (3.46%). The intercall durations for the majority (73.34%) follow a Weibull distribution. We quantify individual users using three measures: out-degree, percentage of outgoing calls, and communication diversity. We find that the cell phone users with a power-law duration distribution fall into three anomalous clusters: robot-based callers, telecom fraud, and telephone sales. This information is of interest to both academics and practitioners, mobile telecom operators in particular. In contrast, the individual users with a Weibull duration distribution form the fourth cluster of ordinary cell phone users. We also discover more information about the calling patterns of these four clusters (e.g., the probability that a user will call the cr-th most contact and the probability distribution of burst sizes). Our findings may enable a more detailed analysis of the huge body of data contained in the logs of massive users. PMID:23319645

Calling patterns in human communication dynamics.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Li, Ming-Xia; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H Eugene

2013-01-29

Modern technologies not only provide a variety of communication modes (e.g., texting, cell phone conversation, and online instant messaging), but also detailed electronic traces of these communications between individuals. These electronic traces indicate that the interactions occur in temporal bursts. Here, we study intercall duration of communications of the 100,000 most active cell phone users of a Chinese mobile phone operator. We confirm that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff at the population level but find differences when focusing on individual users. We apply statistical tests at the individual level and find that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution for only 3,460 individuals (3.46%). The intercall durations for the majority (73.34%) follow a Weibull distribution. We quantify individual users using three measures: out-degree, percentage of outgoing calls, and communication diversity. We find that the cell phone users with a power-law duration distribution fall into three anomalous clusters: robot-based callers, telecom fraud, and telephone sales. This information is of interest to both academics and practitioners, mobile telecom operators in particular. In contrast, the individual users with a Weibull duration distribution form the fourth cluster of ordinary cell phone users. We also discover more information about the calling patterns of these four clusters (e.g., the probability that a user will call the c(r)-th most contact and the probability distribution of burst sizes). Our findings may enable a more detailed analysis of the huge body of data contained in the logs of massive users.

A short term quality control tool for biodegradable microspheres.

PubMed

D'Souza, Susan; Faraj, Jabar A; Dorati, Rossella; DeLuca, Patrick P

2014-06-01

Accelerated in vitro release testing methodology has been developed as an indicator of product performance to be used as a discriminatory quality control (QC) technique for the release of clinical and commercial batches of biodegradable microspheres. While product performance of biodegradable microspheres can be verified by in vivo and/or in vitro experiments, such evaluation can be particularly challenging because of slow polymer degradation, resulting in extended study times, labor, and expense. Three batches of Leuprolide poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) microspheres having varying morphology (process variants having different particle size and specific surface area) were manufactured by the solvent extraction/evaporation technique. Tests involving in vitro release, polymer degradation and hydration of the microspheres were performed on the three batches at 55°C. In vitro peptide release at 55°C was analyzed using a previously derived modification of the Weibull function termed the modified Weibull equation (MWE). Experimental observations and data analysis confirm excellent reproducibility studies within and between batches of the microsphere formulations demonstrating the predictability of the accelerated experiments at 55°C. The accelerated test method was also successfully able to distinguish the in vitro product performance between the three batches having varying morphology (process variants), indicating that it is a suitable QC tool to discriminate product or process variants in clinical or commercial batches of microspheres. Additionally, data analysis utilized the MWE to further quantify the differences obtained from the accelerated in vitro product performance test between process variants, thereby enhancing the discriminatory power of the accelerated methodology at 55°C.

Statistical Analysis on the Mechanical Properties of Magnesium Alloys

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruoyu; Jiang, Xianquan; Zhang, Hongju; Zhang, Dingfei; Wang, Jingfeng; Pan, Fusheng

2017-01-01

Knowledge of statistical characteristics of mechanical properties is very important for the practical application of structural materials. Unfortunately, the scatter characteristics of magnesium alloys for mechanical performance remain poorly understood until now. In this study, the mechanical reliability of magnesium alloys is systematically estimated using Weibull statistical analysis. Interestingly, the Weibull modulus, m, of strength for magnesium alloys is as high as that for aluminum and steels, confirming the very high reliability of magnesium alloys. The high predictability in the tensile strength of magnesium alloys represents the capability of preventing catastrophic premature failure during service, which is essential for safety and reliability assessment. PMID:29113116

Application of the Weibull extrapolation to 137Cs geochronology in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan.

PubMed

Lu, Xueqiang

2004-01-01

Considerable doubt surrounds the nature of processes by which 137Cs is deposited in marine sediments, leading to a situation where 137Cs geochronology cannot be always applied suitably. Based on extrapolation with Weibull distribution, the maximum concentration of 137Cs derived from asymptotic values for cumulative specific inventory was used to re-establish 137Cs geochronology, instead of original 137Cs profiles. Corresponding dating results for cores in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan, by means of this new method, are in much closer agreement with those calculated from 210Pb method than the previous method.

Strain-controlled fatigue of acrylic bone cement.

PubMed

Carter, D R; Gates, E I; Harris, W H

1982-09-01

Monotonic tensile tests and tension-compression fatigue tests were conducted of wet acrylic bone cement specimens at 37 degrees C. All testing was conducted in strain control at a strain rate of 0.02/s. Weibull analysis of the tensile tests indicated that monotonic fracture was governed more strongly by strain than stress. The number of cycles to fatigue failure was also more strongly controlled by strain amplitude than stress amplitude. Specimen porosity distribution played a major role in determining the tensile and fatigue strengths. The degree of data scatter suggests that Weibull analysis of fatigue data may be useful in developing design criteria for the surgical use of bone cement.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Hun C.; Fang, Ho T.

1987-01-01

The technology base required to fabricate silicon nitride components with the strength, reliability, and reproducibility necessary for actual heat engine applications is presented. Task 2 was set up to develop test bars with high Weibull slope and greater high temperature strength, and to conduct an initial net shape component fabrication evaluation. Screening experiments were performed in Task 7 on advanced materials and processing for input to Task 2. The technical efforts performed in the second year of a 5-yr program are covered. The first iteration of Task 2 was completed as planned. Two half-replicated, fractional factorial (2 sup 5), statistically designed matrix experiments were conducted. These experiments have identified Denka 9FW Si3N4 as an alternate raw material to GTE SN502 Si3N4 for subsequent process evaluation. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted to correlate processing conditions with as-processed test bar properties. One processing condition produced a material with a 97 ksi average room temperature MOR (100 percent of goal) with 13.2 Weibull slope (83 percent of goal); another condition produced 86 ksi (6 percent over baseline) room temperature strength with a Weibull slope of 20 (125 percent of goal).

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

PubMed

Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

2016-01-01

Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

Chairside CAD/CAM materials. Part 2: Flexural strength testing.

PubMed

Wendler, Michael; Belli, Renan; Petschelt, Anselm; Mevec, Daniel; Harrer, Walter; Lube, Tanja; Danzer, Robert; Lohbauer, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Strength is one of the preferred parameters used in dentistry for determining clinical indication of dental restoratives. However, small dimensions of CAD/CAM blocks limit reliable measurements with standardized uniaxial bending tests. The objective of this study was to introduce the ball-on-three-ball (B3B) biaxial strength test for dental for small CAD/CAM block in the context of the size effect on strength predicted by the Weibull theory. Eight representative chairside CAD/CAM materials ranging from polycrystalline zirconia (e.max ZirCAD, Ivoclar-Vivadent), reinforced glasses (Vitablocs Mark II, VITA; Empress CAD, Ivoclar-Vivadent) and glass-ceramics (e.max CAD, Ivoclar-Vivadent; Suprinity, VITA; Celtra Duo, Dentsply) to hybrid materials (Enamic, VITA; Lava Ultimate, 3M ESPE) have been selected. Specimens were prepared with highly polished surfaces in rectangular plate (12×12×1.2mm 3 ) or round disc (Ø=12mm, thickness=1.2mm) geometries. Specimens were tested using the B3B assembly and the biaxial strength was determined using calculations derived from finite element analyses of the respective stress fields. Size effects on strength were determined based on results from 4-point-bending specimens. A good agreement was found between the biaxial strength results for the different geometries (plates vs. discs) using the B3B test. Strength values ranged from 110.9MPa (Vitablocs Mark II) to 1303.21MPa (e.max ZirCAD). The strength dependency on specimen size was demonstrated through the calculated effective volume/surface. The B3B test has shown to be a reliable and simple method for determining the biaxial strength restorative materials supplied as small CAD/CAM blocks. A flexible solution was made available for the B3B test in the rectangular plate geometry. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Micropatterned Silica Films with Nanohydroxyapatite for Y-TZP Implants.

PubMed

Miranda, R B P; Grenho, L; Carvalho, A; Fernandes, M H; Monteiro, F J; Cesar, P F

2018-03-01

This investigation aimed at developing micropatterned silica thin films (MSTFs) containing nanohydroxyapatite (nano-HA) microaggregates that were not completely covered by silica so that they could directly interact with the surrounding cells. The objectives were 1) to evaluate the effect of the presence of 2 films (MSTF with or without nano-HA addition) on the characteristic strength (σ 0 ) and Weibull modulus ( m) of a yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystal (Y-TZP) and 2) to evaluate the effect of these 2 films, as applied onto the Y-TZP surface, on the morphology, orientation, and proliferation of MG63 cells. Sol-gel process and soft lithography were used to apply the MSTF onto the Y-TZP specimens. Three experimental groups were produced: Y-TZP, Y-TZP + MSTF, and Y-TZP + MSTF + sprayed nano-HA. All surfaces were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and tested for 4-point flexural strength ( n = 30) in water at 37 °C. Weibull analysis was used to determine m and σ 0 (maximum likelihood method). In vitro biological behavior was performed with human osteoblast-like cells (MG63). Y-TZP was successfully coated with MSFT and MSFT + nano-HA. Scanning electron microscopy micrographs indicated that the microaggregates of nano-HA were not entirely covered by the silica. There was no statistically significant difference among the experimental groups for σ 0 and m. In the groups containing the films, the cells were elongated and aligned along the lines. The MSFT + nano-HA group showed significantly higher cell metabolic activity than that obtained for the Y-TZP group at day 7. This investigation was successful in producing an MSTF containing nano-HA microaggregates that remained exposed to the environment. The developed films did not jeopardize the structural reliability of a commercial Y-TZP, as confirmed by the Weibull statistics. The MG63 cells seeded over the films became elongated and aligned along the films' micropatterned lines. Y-TZP specimens coated with MSTF and nano-HA showed a higher cell metabolic activity and proliferation after 7 d of culture when compared with uncoated Y-TZP.

Effect of air-abrasion regimens and fine diamond bur grinding on flexural strength, Weibull modulus and phase transformation of zirconium dioxide.

PubMed

Michida, Silvia Masae de Araújo; Kimpara, Estevão Tomomitsu; dos Santos, Claudinei; Souza, Rodrigo Othavio Assunção; Bottino, Marco Antonio; Özcan, Mutlu

2015-10-16

This study evaluated the effect of air abrasion and polishing regimens on the flexural strength of yttrium stabilized polycrystalline tetragonal zirconia (Y-TZP). From Y-TZP blocks (InCeram 2000 YZ Cubes; Vita Zahnfabrik, Bad Säckingen, Germany) 120 bars (25 mm × 4 mm × 1.2 mm) were obtained according to ISO 6872:2008 and randomly divided into 4 groups: Group C: (control) without surface treatment (n = 30); Group APA: Air abrasion with aluminum oxide (44 µm) (n = 30); Group SC: Silica-coating (CoJet, 30 µm) (n = 30); Group FD: Fine diamond bur (n = 30). Subsequently, all specimens were subjected to 4-point bending test (in distilled water at 37 °C) in a universal testing machine (EMIC DL 1000; São José dos Pinhais, Paraná, Brazil); cross-head speed: 0.5 mm/min). The characteristic strength (σ0) of each specimen was obtained from the flexural strength test and evaluated using Weibull analysis. X-ray diffraction analysis was utilized to quantity the monoclinic phase. The surface topography of specimens was analyzed using 3D optical profilometer and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) after surface conditioning methods. The flexural strength data (σ4p) were statistically analyzed by 1-way ANOVA, Tukey test (α = 0.05) and Weibull (m = modulus, σ0 = characteristic strength) were calculated. The mean ± standard deviations (MPa) of the groups were as follows: C: 1196.2 ± 284.2a; APA: 1369.7 ± 272.3a; SC: 1207.1 ± 229.7a and FD: 874.4 ± 365.4b. The values (m) and (σ0) were as follows: C: 4.5 and 1308.12; APA: 5.9 and 1477.88; SC: 6.0 and 1300.28; and FD: 2.6 and 985.901, respectively. Air particle abrasion with neither silica nor alumina showed significant difference compared to the control group but grinding with fine diamond bur impaired the flexural strength of the zirconia tested.

Failure rate and reliability of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator in surface limestone mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harish Kumar N., S.; Choudhary, R. P.; Murthy, Ch. S. N.

2018-04-01

The model with failure rate function of bathtub-shaped is helpful in reliability analysis of any system and particularly in reliability associated privative maintenance. The usual Weibull distribution is, however, not capable to model the complete lifecycle of the any with a bathtub-shaped failure rate function. In this paper, failure rate and reliability analysis of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator/shovel in surface mine is presented and also to improve the reliability and decrease the failure rate of each subsystem of the shovel based on the preventive maintenance. The model of the bathtub-shaped for shovel can also be seen as a simplification of the Weibull distribution.

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2003-01-01

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

High-strain-rate deformation of granular silicon carbide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shih, C.J.; Meyers, M.A.; Nesterenko, V.F.

1998-07-01

Silicon carbide powders with three particle size distributions (average sizes of 0.4, 3 and 50 {micro}m) were subjected to strain-controlled, high-strain-rate deformation ({dot {var_epsilon}} {approx} 3 {times} 10{sup 4}/s) in a cylindrical geometry which imposed simultaneous compressive stresses. The experiments involved two explosive stages to (a) densify the powder and to (b) subject the densified granules to large deformation. The powder, with initial density of 33--59% of theoretical density, was densified to densities between 73 and 94% of theoretical density in the first stage. The densified powders were subjected to a global effective strain of {approx}{minus}0.27 in the second stage.more » Their response to be imposed constraints occurred through both homogeneous deformation (82--100%) and shear localization (0--18%), depending on the particle size. In the coarse powder (50 {micro}m), the shear localization process was primarily due to particle break-up (comminution) and rearrangement of the comminuted particles, through a similar mechanism to the bulk and prefractured SiC (Shih, C.J., Nesterenko, V.F. and Meyers, M.A., Journal of Applied Physics, 1998, 83, 4660). Comminution was observed in the medium powder (3 {micro}m), but was never seen in the fine powder (0.4 {micro}m). In medium and fine granular SiC, the shear localization at sufficiently high displacement (>150 {micro}m) leads to the formation of a thin layer (5--20 {micro}m) of well-bonded material. Calculated temperatures in the centers of the bands are up to 2300 C (using an assumed shear strength of 2 GPa and linear thermal softening), which explain the bonding. An analytical model is developed that correctly predicts break-up of large particles and plastic deformation of the smaller ones. It is based on the Griffith fracture criterion and Weibull distribution of strength, which quantitatively express the fact that the fracture is generated by flaws the size of which is limited by the particle size.« less

Modeling the effects of sodium chloride, acetic acid, and intracellular pH on survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7.

PubMed

Hosein, Althea M; Breidt, Frederick; Smith, Charles E

2011-02-01

Microbiological safety has been a critical issue for acid and acidified foods since it became clear that acid-tolerant pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 can survive (even though they are unable to grow) in a pH range of 3 to 4, which is typical for these classes of food products. The primary antimicrobial compounds in these products are acetic acid and NaCl, which can alter the intracellular physiology of E. coli O157:H7, leading to cell death. For combinations of acetic acid and NaCl at pH 3.2 (a pH value typical for non-heat-processed acidified vegetables), survival curves were described by using a Weibull model. The data revealed a protective effect of NaCl concentration on cell survival for selected acetic acid concentrations. The intracellular pH of an E. coli O157:H7 strain exposed to acetic acid concentrations of up to 40 mM and NaCl concentrations between 2 and 4% was determined. A reduction in the intracellular pH was observed for increasing acetic acid concentrations with an external pH of 3.2. Comparing intracellular pH with Weibull model predictions showed that decreases in intracellular pH were significantly correlated with the corresponding times required to achieve a 5-log reduction in the number of bacteria.

Four theorems on the psychometric function.

PubMed

May, Keith A; Solomon, Joshua A

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, Δx. This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull "slope" parameter, β, can be approximated by β(Noise) x β(Transducer), where β(Noise) is the β of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and β(Transducer) depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for β(Noise) and β(Transducer), from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when d' ∝ (Δx)(b), β ≈ β(Noise) x b. We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4-0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull β reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of β for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian.

A comparative study of mixture cure models with covariate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Oh Yit; Khalid, Zarina Mohd

2017-05-01

In survival analysis, the survival time is assumed to follow a non-negative distribution, such as the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal distributions. In some cases, the survival time is influenced by some observed factors. The absence of these observed factors may cause an inaccurate estimation in the survival function. Therefore, a survival model which incorporates the influences of observed factors is more appropriate to be used in such cases. These observed factors are included in the survival model as covariates. Besides that, there are cases where a group of individuals who are cured, that is, not experiencing the event of interest. Ignoring the cure fraction may lead to overestimate in estimating the survival function. Thus, a mixture cure model is more suitable to be employed in modelling survival data with the presence of a cure fraction. In this study, three mixture cure survival models are used to analyse survival data with a covariate and a cure fraction. The first model includes covariate in the parameterization of the susceptible individuals survival function, the second model allows the cure fraction to depend on covariate, and the third model incorporates covariate in both cure fraction and survival function of susceptible individuals. This study aims to compare the performance of these models via a simulation approach. Therefore, in this study, survival data with varying sample sizes and cure fractions are simulated and the survival time is assumed to follow the Weibull distribution. The simulated data are then modelled using the three mixture cure survival models. The results show that the three mixture cure models are more appropriate to be used in modelling survival data with the presence of cure fraction and an observed factor.

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, T. J.; Winterbottom, W. L.

1986-01-01

Work performed to develop silicon carbide materials of high strength and to form components of complex shape and high reliability is described. A beta-SiC powder and binder system was adapted to the injection molding process and procedures and process parameters developed capable of providing a sintered silicon carbide material with improved properties. The initial effort has been to characterize the baseline precursor materials (beta silicon carbide powder and boron and carbon sintering aids), develop mixing and injection molding procedures for fabricating test bars, and characterize the properties of the sintered materials. Parallel studies of various mixing, dewaxing, and sintering procedures have been carried out in order to distinguish process routes for improving material properties. A total of 276 MOR bars of the baseline material have been molded, and 122 bars have been fully processed to a sinter density of approximately 95 percent. The material has a mean MOR room temperature strength of 43.31 ksi (299 MPa), a Weibull characteristic strength of 45.8 ksi (315 MPa), and a Weibull modulus of 8.0. Mean values of the MOR strengths at 1000, 1200, and 14000 C are 41.4, 43.2, and 47.2 ksi, respectively. Strength controlling flaws in this material were found to consist of regions of high porosity and were attributed to agglomerates originating in the initial mixing procedures. The mean stress rupture lift at 1400 C of five samples tested at 172 MPa (25 ksi) stress was 62 hours and at 207 MPa (30 ksi) stress was 14 hours. New fluid mixing techniques have been developed which significantly reduce flaw size and improve the strength of the material. Initial MOR tests indicate the strength of the fluid-mixed material exceeds the baseline property by more than 33 percent.

Effect of temperature on life history parameters of adult Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in relation to geographic origin and vectorial capacity for bluetongue virus.

PubMed

Lysyk, T J; Danyk, T

2007-09-01

The effect of temperature on survival, oviposition, gonotrophic development, and a life history factor of vectorial capacity were examined in adult Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth & Jones) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) that originated from two geographic locations. Flies originating from the United States (Colorado) had slightly reduced survival after a bloodmeal compared with wild flies collected in southern Alberta (AB), Canada. Survival of AB flies declined in a curvilinear manner with temperature, whereas survival of U.S. flies showed a linear response to temperature. The survivorship curve of the AB flies more closely followed a Weibull distribution than an exponential, indicating survival was age-dependent. Survivorship of the U.S. flies followed an exponential distribution. Females from both sources laid similar numbers of eggs throughout their life. The first eggs were laid by females from both sources at 31.9 degree-day (DD)9.3. Dissections of blood-fed flies reared at various temperatures indicated that flies from both sources were 90% gravid at 32 DD9.3. Relationships among temperature and life history components of vectorial capacity were similar among flies from the two sources and indicated that vectorial capacity would be approximately 1.8-2.6-fold greater in a southern U.S. climate compared with southwestern Canada due solely to the effects of temperature on the life history of C. sonorensis. Using life history estimates derived from Weibull model had little effect on estimating vectorial capacity, whereas using estimates derived from the exponential model slightly overestimated vectorial capacity.

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

PubMed Central

Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

2016-01-01

Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

Influence of the bracket on bonding and physical behavior of orthodontic resin cements.

PubMed

Bolaños-Carmona, Victoria; Zein, Bilal; Menéndez-Núñez, Mario; Sánchez-Sánchez, Purificación; Ceballos-García, Laura; González-López, Santiago

2015-01-01

The aim of the study is to determine the influence of the type of bracket, on bond strength, microhardness and conversion degree (CD) of four resin orthodontic cements. Micro-tensile bond strength (µTBS) test between the bracket base and the cement was carried out on glass-hour-shaped specimens (n=20). Vickers Hardness Number (VHN) and micro-Raman spectra were recorded in situ under the bracket base. Weibull distribution, ANOVA and non-parametric test were applied for data analysis (p<0.05). The highest values of ή as well as the β Weibull parameter were obtained for metallic brackets with Transbond™ plastic brackets with the self-curing cement showing the worst performance. The CD was from 80% to 62.5%.

Performance of soil particle-size distribution models for describing deposited soils adjacent to constructed dams in the China Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Pei; Shao, Ming-an; Horton, Robert

2011-02-01

Soil particle-size distributions (PSD) have been used to estimate soil hydraulic properties. Various parametric PSD models have been proposed to describe the soil PSD from sparse experimental data. It is important to determine which PSD model best represents specific soils. Fourteen PSD models were examined in order to determine the best model for representing the deposited soils adjacent to dams in the China Loess Plateau; these were: Skaggs (S-1, S-2, and S-3), fractal (FR), Jaky (J), Lima and Silva (LS), Morgan (M), Gompertz (G), logarithm (L), exponential (E), log-exponential (LE), Weibull (W), van Genuchten type (VG) as well as Fredlund (F) models. Four-hundred and eighty samples were obtained from soils deposited in the Liudaogou catchment. The coefficient of determination (R 2), the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the modified AIC (mAIC) were used. Based upon R 2 and AIC, the three- and four-parameter models were both good at describing the PSDs of deposited soils, and the LE, FR, and E models were the poorest. However, the mAIC in conjunction with R 2 and AIC results indicated that the W model was optimum for describing PSD of the deposited soils for emphasizing the effect of parameter number. This analysis was also helpful for finding out which model is the best one. Our results are applicable to the China Loess Plateau.

Survival distributions impact the power of randomized placebo-phase design and parallel groups randomized clinical trials.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Lusine; Li, Chuan Silvia; Beyene, Joseph; Willan, Andrew R; Feldman, Brian M

2011-03-01

The study evaluated the power of the randomized placebo-phase design (RPPD)-a new design of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), compared with the traditional parallel groups design, assuming various response time distributions. In the RPPD, at some point, all subjects receive the experimental therapy, and the exposure to placebo is for only a short fixed period of time. For the study, an object-oriented simulation program was written in R. The power of the simulated trials was evaluated using six scenarios, where the treatment response times followed the exponential, Weibull, or lognormal distributions. The median response time was assumed to be 355 days for the placebo and 42 days for the experimental drug. Based on the simulation results, the sample size requirements to achieve the same level of power were different under different response time to treatment distributions. The scenario where the response times followed the exponential distribution had the highest sample size requirement. In most scenarios, the parallel groups RCT had higher power compared with the RPPD. The sample size requirement varies depending on the underlying hazard distribution. The RPPD requires more subjects to achieve a similar power to the parallel groups design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, J.

1998-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.

2015-02-10

In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizesmore » the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)« less

Evolution of a detailed physiological model to simulate the gastrointestinal transit and absorption process in humans, part II: extension to describe performance of solid dosage forms.

PubMed

Thelen, Kirstin; Coboeken, Katrin; Willmann, Stefan; Dressman, Jennifer B; Lippert, Jörg

2012-03-01

The physiological absorption model presented in part I of this work is now extended to account for dosage-form-dependent gastrointestinal (GI) transit as well as disintegration and dissolution processes of various immediate-release and modified-release dosage forms. Empirical functions of the Weibull type were fitted to experimental in vitro dissolution profiles of solid dosage forms for eight test compounds (aciclovir, caffeine, cimetidine, diclofenac, furosemide, paracetamol, phenobarbital, and theophylline). The Weibull functions were then implemented into the model to predict mean plasma concentration-time profiles of the various dosage forms. On the basis of these dissolution functions, pharmacokinetics (PK) of six model drugs was predicted well. In the case of diclofenac, deviations between predicted and observed plasma concentrations were attributable to the large variability in gastric emptying time of the enteric-coated tablets. Likewise, oral PK of furosemide was found to be predominantly governed by the gastric emptying patterns. It is concluded that the revised model for GI transit and absorption was successfully integrated with dissolution functions of the Weibull type, enabling prediction of in vivo PK profiles from in vitro dissolution data. It facilitates a comparative analysis of the parameters contributing to oral drug absorption and is thus a powerful tool for formulation design. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian Weibull tree models for survival analysis of clinico-genomic data

PubMed Central

Clarke, Jennifer; West, Mike

2008-01-01

An important goal of research involving gene expression data for outcome prediction is to establish the ability of genomic data to define clinically relevant risk factors. Recent studies have demonstrated that microarray data can successfully cluster patients into low- and high-risk categories. However, the need exists for models which examine how genomic predictors interact with existing clinical factors and provide personalized outcome predictions. We have developed clinico-genomic tree models for survival outcomes which use recursive partitioning to subdivide the current data set into homogeneous subgroups of patients, each with a specific Weibull survival distribution. These trees can provide personalized predictive distributions of the probability of survival for individuals of interest. Our strategy is to fit multiple models; within each model we adopt a prior on the Weibull scale parameter and update this prior via Empirical Bayes whenever the sample is split at a given node. The decision to split is based on a Bayes factor criterion. The resulting trees are weighted according to their relative likelihood values and predictions are made by averaging over models. In a pilot study of survival in advanced stage ovarian cancer we demonstrate that clinical and genomic data are complementary sources of information relevant to survival, and we use the exploratory nature of the trees to identify potential genomic biomarkers worthy of further study. PMID:18618012

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1987-01-01

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

C3H7NO2S effect on concrete steel-rebar corrosion in 0.5 M H2SO4 simulating industrial/microbial environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Nwadialo, Christopher Chukwuweike; Olu-Steven, Folusho Emmanuel; Ebinne, Samaru Smart; Coker, Taiwo Ebenezer; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin; Ogbiye, Adebanji Samuel; Durotoye, Taiwo Omowunmi; Badmus, Emmanuel Omotunde Oluwasogo

2017-02-01

This paper investigates C3H7NO2S (Cysteine) effect on the inhibition of reinforcing steel corrosion in concrete immersed in 0.5 M H2SO4, for simulating industrial/microbial environment. Different C3H7NO2S concentrations were admixed, in duplicates, in steel-reinforced concrete samples that were partially immersed in the acidic sulphate environment. Electrochemical monitoring techniques of open circuit potential, as per ASTM C876-91 R99, and corrosion rate, by linear polarization resistance, were then employed for studying anticorrosion effect in steel-reinforced concrete samples by the organic hydrocarbon admixture. Analyses of electrochemical test-data followed ASTM G16-95 R04 prescriptions including probability distribution modeling with significant testing by Kolmogorov-Smirnov and student's t-tests statistics. Results established that all datasets of corrosion potential distributed like the Normal, the Gumbel and the Weibull distributions but that only the Weibull model described all the corrosion rate datasets in the study, as per the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test-statistics. Results of the student's t-test showed that differences of corrosion test-data between duplicated samples with the same C3H7NO2S concentrations were not statistically significant. These results indicated that 0.06878 M C3H7NO2S exhibited optimal inhibition efficiency η = 90.52±1.29% on reinforcing steel corrosion in the concrete samples immersed in 0.5 M H2SO4, simulating industrial/microbial service-environment.

CARES/PC - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szatmary, S. A.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES/PC performs statistical analysis of data obtained from the fracture of simple, uniaxial tensile or flexural specimens and estimates the Weibull and Batdorf material parameters from this data. CARES/PC is a subset of the program CARES (COSMIC program number LEW-15168) which calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of ceramic components utilizing the Batdorf and Weibull models to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. CARES additionally requires that the ceramic structure be modeled by a finite element program such as MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS. The more limited CARES/PC does not perform fast-fracture reliability estimation of components. CARES/PC estimates ceramic material properties from uniaxial tensile or from three- and four-point bend bar data. In general, the parameters are obtained from the fracture stresses of many specimens (30 or more are recommended) whose geometry and loading configurations are held constant. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests measure the accuracy of the hypothesis that the fracture data comes from a population with a distribution specified by the estimated Weibull parameters. Ninety-percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters and the unbiased value of the shape parameter for complete samples are provided when the maximum likelihood technique is used. CARES/PC is written and compiled with the Microsoft FORTRAN v5.0 compiler using the VAX FORTRAN extensions and dynamic array allocation supported by this compiler for the IBM/MS-DOS or OS/2 operating systems. The dynamic array allocation routines allow the user to match the number of fracture sets and test specimens to the memory available. Machine requirements include IBM PC compatibles with optional math coprocessor. Program output is designed to fit 80-column format printers. Executables for both DOS and OS/2 are provided. CARES/PC is distributed on one 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette in compressed format. The expansion tool PKUNZIP.EXE is supplied on the diskette. CARES/PC was developed in 1990. IBM PC and OS/2 are trademarks of International Business Machines. MS-DOS and MS OS/2 are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation. VAX is a trademark of Digital Equipment Corporation.

Modeling the survival of Salmonella spp. in chorizos.

PubMed

Hajmeer, M; Basheer, I; Hew, C; Cliver, D O

2006-03-01

The survival of Salmonella spp. in chorizos has been studied under the effect of storage conditions; namely temperature (T=6, 25, 30 degrees C), air inflow velocity (F=0, 28.4 m/min), and initial water activity (a(w0)=0.85, 0.90, 0.93, 0.95, 0.97). The pH was held at 5.0. A total of 20 survival curves were experimentally obtained at various combinations of operating conditions. The chorizos were stored under four conditions: in the refrigerator (Ref: T=6 degrees C, F=0 m/min), at room temperature (RT: T=25 degrees C, F=0 m/min), in the hood (Hd: T=25 degrees C, F=28.4 m/min), and in the incubator (Inc: T=30 degrees C, F=0 m/min). Semi-logarithmic plots of counts vs. time revealed nonlinear trends for all the survival curves, indicating that the first-order kinetics model (exponential distribution function) was not suitable. The Weibull cumulative distribution function, for which the exponential function is only a special case, was selected and used to model the survival curves. The Weibull model was fitted to the 20 curves and the model parameters (alpha and beta) were determined. The fitted survival curves agreed with the experimental data with R(2)=0.951, 0.969, 0.908, and 0.871 for the Ref, RT, Hd, and Inc curves, respectively. Regression models relating alpha and beta to T, F, and a(w0) resulted in R(2) values of 0.975 for alpha and 0.988 for beta. The alpha and beta models can be used to generate a survival curve for Salmonella in chorizos for a given set of operating conditions. Additionally, alpha and beta can be used to determine the times needed to reduce the count by 1 or 2 logs t(1D) and t(2D). It is concluded that the Weibull cumulative distribution function offers a powerful model for describing microbial survival data. A comparison with the pathogen modeling program (PMP) revealed that the survival kinetics of Salmonella spp. in chorizos could not be adequately predicted using PMP which underestimated the t(1D) and t(2D). The mean of the Weibull probability density function correlated strongly with t(1D) and t(2D), and can serve as an alternative to the D-values normally used with first-order kinetic models. Parametric studies were conducted and sensitivity of survival to operating conditions was evaluated and discussed in the paper. The models derived herein provide a means for the development of a reliable risk assessment system for controlling Salmonella spp. in chorizos.

Set statistics in conductive bridge random access memory device with Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Meiyun; Long, Shibing, E-mail: longshibing@ime.ac.cn; Wang, Guoming

2014-11-10

The switching parameter variation of resistive switching memory is one of the most important challenges in its application. In this letter, we have studied the set statistics of conductive bridge random access memory with a Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure. The experimental distributions of the set parameters in several off resistance ranges are shown to nicely fit a Weibull model. The Weibull slopes of the set voltage and current increase and decrease logarithmically with off resistance, respectively. This experimental behavior is perfectly captured by a Monte Carlo simulator based on the cell-based set voltage statistics model and the Quantum Point Contact electronmore » transport model. Our work provides indications for the improvement of the switching uniformity.« less

Degradation kinetics of organic dyes in water by high voltage atmospheric air and modified air cold plasma.

PubMed

Pankaj, S K; Wan, Zifan; Colonna, William; Keener, Kevin M

2017-07-01

High voltage atmospheric cold plasma (HVACP) is a novel, non-thermal technology which has shown potential for degradation of various toxic components in wastewater. In this study, HVACP was used to examine the degradation kinetics of methyl red, crystal violet and fast green FCF dyes. HVACP discharge was found to be a source of reactive nitrogen and oxygen species. High voltage application completely degraded all dyes tested in less than 5 min treatment time. Plasma from modified gas (∼65% O 2 ) further reduced the treatment time by 50% vs. plasma from dry air. First order and Weibull models were fitted to the degradation data. The Weibull model was found better in explaining the degradation kinetics of all the treated dyes.

Fiber Breakage Model for Carbon Composite Stress Rupture Phenomenon: Theoretical Development and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie

2010-01-01

Stress rupture failure of Carbon Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) is of serious concern to Science Mission and Constellation programs since there are a number of COPVs on board space vehicles with stored gases under high pressure for long durations of time. It has become customary to establish the reliability of these vessels using the so called classic models. The classical models are based on Weibull statistics fitted to observed stress rupture data. These stochastic models cannot account for any additional damage due to the complex pressure-time histories characteristic of COPVs being supplied for NASA missions. In particular, it is suspected that the effects of proof test could significantly reduce the stress rupture lifetime of COPVs. The focus of this paper is to present an analytical appraisal of a model that incorporates damage due to proof test. The model examined in the current paper is based on physical mechanisms such as micromechanics based load sharing concepts coupled with creep rupture and Weibull statistics. For example, the classic model cannot accommodate for damage due to proof testing which every flight vessel undergoes. The paper compares current model to the classic model with a number of examples. In addition, several applications of the model to current ISS and Constellation program issues are also examined.

Modeling Mass and Thermal Transport in Thin Porous Media of PEM Fuel Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, Vinaykumar

Water transport in the Porous Transport Layer (PTL) plays an important role in the efficient operation of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFC). Excessive water content as well as dry operating conditions are unfavorable for efficient and reliable operation of the fuel cell. The effect of thermal conductivity and porosity on water management are investigated by simulating two-phase flow in the PTL of the fuel cell using a network model. In the model, the PTL consists of a pore-phase and a solid-phase. Different models of the PTLs are generated using independent Weibull distributions for the pore-phase and the solid-phase. The specific arrangement of the pores and solid elements is varied to obtain different PTL realizations for the same Weibull parameters. The properties of PTL are varied by changing the porosity and thermal conductivity. The parameters affecting operating conditions include the temperature, relative humidity in the flow channel and voltage and current density. In addition, a novel high-speed capable Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) microscope was built based on Kretschmann's configuration utilizing a collimated Kohler illumination. The SPR allows thin film characterization in a thickness of approximately 0-200nm by measuring the changes in the refractive index. Various independent experiments were run to measure film thickness during droplet coalescence during condensation.

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning.

PubMed

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-06-29

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images' spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines.

ZERODUR strength modeling with Weibull statistical distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2016-07-01

The decisive influence on breakage strength of brittle materials such as the low expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR is the surface condition. For polished or etched surfaces it is essential if micro cracks are present and how deep they are. Ground surfaces have many micro cracks caused by the generation process. Here only the depths of the micro cracks are relevant. In any case presence and depths of micro cracks are statistical by nature. The Weibull distribution is the model used traditionally for the representation of such data sets. It is based on the weakest link ansatz. The use of the two or three parameter Weibull distribution for data representation and reliability prediction depends on the underlying crack generation mechanisms. Before choosing the model for a specific evaluation, some checks should be done. Is there only one mechanism present or is it to be expected that an additional mechanism might contribute deviating results? For ground surfaces the main mechanism is the diamond grains' action on the surface. However, grains breaking from their bonding might be moved by the tool across the surface introducing a slightly deeper crack. It is not to be expected that these scratches follow the same statistical distribution as the grinding process. Hence, their description with the same distribution parameters is not adequate. Before including them a dedicated discussion should be performed. If there is additional information available influencing the selection of the model, for example the existence of a maximum crack depth, this should be taken into account also. Micro cracks introduced by small diamond grains on tools working with limited forces cannot be arbitrarily deep. For data obtained with such surfaces the existence of a threshold breakage stress should be part of the hypothesis. This leads to the use of the three parameter Weibull distribution. A differentiation based on the data set alone without preexisting information is possible but requires a large data set. With only 20 specimens per sample such differentiation is not possible. This requires 100 specimens per set, the more the better. The validity of the statistical evaluation methods is discussed with several examples. These considerations are of special importance because of their consequences on the prognosis methods and results. Especially the use of the two parameter Weibull distribution for high strength surfaces has led to non-realistic results. Extrapolation down to low acceptable probability of failure covers a wide range without data points existing and is mainly influenced by the slope determined by the high strength specimens. In the past this misconception has prevented the use of brittle materials for stress loads, which they could have endured easily.

Two-machine flow shop scheduling integrated with preventive maintenance planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shijin; Liu, Ming

2016-02-01

This paper investigates an integrated optimisation problem of production scheduling and preventive maintenance (PM) in a two-machine flow shop with time to failure of each machine subject to a Weibull probability distribution. The objective is to find the optimal job sequence and the optimal PM decisions before each job such that the expected makespan is minimised. To investigate the value of integrated scheduling solution, computational experiments on small-scale problems with different configurations are conducted with total enumeration method, and the results are compared with those of scheduling without maintenance but with machine degradation, and individual job scheduling combined with independent PM planning. Then, for large-scale problems, four genetic algorithm (GA) based heuristics are proposed. The numerical results with several large problem sizes and different configurations indicate the potential benefits of integrated scheduling solution and the results also show that proposed GA-based heuristics are efficient for the integrated problem.

Coercivity mechanisms and thermal stability of thin film magnetic recording media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Cheng

1999-09-01

Coercivity mechanisms and thermal stability of magnetic recording media were studied. It was found that magnetization reversal mainly occurs by nucleation mechanism. The correlation was established between the c/ a ratio of Co HCP structure and other process parameters that are thought to be the dominant factors in determining the anisotropy and therefore the coercivity of Co based thin film magnetic recording media. Time decay and switching of the magnetization in thin film magnetic recording media depend on the grain size distribution and easy-axis orientation distribution according to the proposed two- energy-level model. Relaxation time is the most fundamental parameter that determines the time decay performance of the magnetic recording media. An algorithm was proposed to calculate its distribution directly from the experimental data without any presumption. It was found for the first time that the distribution of relaxation time takes the form of Weibull distribution.

Bonded-cell model for particle fracture.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc-Hanh; Azéma, Emilien; Sornay, Philippe; Radjai, Farhang

2015-02-01

Particle degradation and fracture play an important role in natural granular flows and in many applications of granular materials. We analyze the fracture properties of two-dimensional disklike particles modeled as aggregates of rigid cells bonded along their sides by a cohesive Mohr-Coulomb law and simulated by the contact dynamics method. We show that the compressive strength scales with tensile strength between cells but depends also on the friction coefficient and a parameter describing cell shape distribution. The statistical scatter of compressive strength is well described by the Weibull distribution function with a shape parameter varying from 6 to 10 depending on cell shape distribution. We show that this distribution may be understood in terms of percolating critical intercellular contacts. We propose a random-walk model of critical contacts that leads to particle size dependence of the compressive strength in good agreement with our simulation data.

Dynamic relationships between body size, species richness, abundance, and energy use in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community

PubMed Central

Labra, Fabio A; Hernández-Miranda, Eduardo; Quiñones, Renato A

2015-01-01

We study the temporal variation in the empirical relationships among body size (S), species richness (R), and abundance (A) in a shallow marine epibenthic faunal community in Coliumo Bay, Chile. We also extend previous analyses by calculating individual energy use (E) and test whether its bivariate and trivariate relationships with S and R are in agreement with expectations derived from the energetic equivalence rule. Carnivorous and scavenger species representing over 95% of sample abundance and biomass were studied. For each individual, body size (g) was measured and E was estimated following published allometric relationships. Data for each sample were tabulated into exponential body size bins, comparing species-averaged values with individual-based estimates which allow species to potentially occupy multiple size classes. For individual-based data, both the number of individuals and species across body size classes are fit by a Weibull function rather than by a power law scaling. Species richness is also a power law of the number of individuals. Energy use shows a piecewise scaling relationship with body size, with energetic equivalence holding true only for size classes above the modal abundance class. Species-based data showed either weak linear or no significant patterns, likely due to the decrease in the number of data points across body size classes. Hence, for individual-based size spectra, the SRA relationship seems to be general despite seasonal forcing and strong disturbances in Coliumo Bay. The unimodal abundance distribution results in a piecewise energy scaling relationship, with small individuals showing a positive scaling and large individuals showing energetic equivalence. Hence, strict energetic equivalence should not be expected for unimodal abundance distributions. On the other hand, while species-based data do not show unimodal SRA relationships, energy use across body size classes did not show significant trends, supporting energetic equivalence. PMID:25691966

The impact of household wealth on child survival in Ghana.

PubMed

Lartey, Stella T; Khanam, Rasheda; Takahashi, Shingo

2016-11-22

Improving child health is one of the major policy agendas for most of the governments, especially in the developing countries. These governments have been implementing various strategies such as improving healthcare financing, improving access to health, increasing educational level, and income level of the household to improve child health. Despite all these efforts, under-five and infant mortality rates remain high in many developing nations. Some previous studies examined how economic development or household's economic condition contributes to child survival in developing countries. In Ghana, the question as to what extent does economic circumstances of households reduces infant and child mortality still remain largely unanswered. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the extent to which wealth affects the survival of under-five children, using data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of Ghana. In this study, we use four waves of data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Ghana from 1993 to 2008. The DHS is a detailed data set that provides comprehensive information on households and their demographic characteristics in Ghana. Data was obtained by distributing questionnaires to women (from 6000 households) of reproductive age between 15 and 49 years, which asked, among other things, their birth history information. The Weibull hazard model with gamma frailty was used to estimate wealth effect, as well as the trend of wealth effect on child's survival probability. We find that household wealth status has a significant effect on the child survival in Ghana. A child is more likely to survive when he/she is from a household with high wealth status. Among other factors, birth spacing and parental education were found to be highly significant to increase a child's survival probability. Our findings offer plausible mechanisms for the association of household wealth and child survival. We therefore suggest that the Government of Ghana strengthens and sustains improved livelihood programs, which reduce poverty. They should also take further initiatives that will increase adult education and improve health knowledge. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in Ghana that combines four cross sectional data sets from DHS to study a policy-relevant question. We extend Standard Weibull hazard model into Weibull hazard model with gamma frailty, which gives us a more accurate estimation. Finally, the findings of this study are of interest not only because they provide insights into the determinants of child health in Ghana and other developing countries, but they also suggest policies beyond the scope of health.

Reliability analysis of C-130 turboprop engine components using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qattan, Nizar A.

In this study, we predict the failure rate of Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine. More than thirty years of local operational field data were used for failure rate prediction and validation. The Weibull regression model and the Artificial Neural Network model including (feed-forward back-propagation, radial basis neural network, and multilayer perceptron neural network model); will be utilized to perform this study. For this purpose, the thesis will be divided into five major parts. First part deals with Weibull regression model to predict the turbine general failure rate, and the rate of failures that require overhaul maintenance. The second part will cover the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model utilizing the feed-forward back-propagation algorithm as a learning rule. The MATLAB package will be used in order to build and design a code to simulate the given data, the inputs to the neural network are the independent variables, the output is the general failure rate of the turbine, and the failures which required overhaul maintenance. In the third part we predict the general failure rate of the turbine and the failures which require overhaul maintenance, using radial basis neural network model on MATLAB tool box. In the fourth part we compare the predictions of the feed-forward back-propagation model, with that of Weibull regression model, and radial basis neural network model. The results show that the failure rate predicted by the feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network model is closer in agreement with radial basis neural network model compared with the actual field-data, than the failure rate predicted by the Weibull model. By the end of the study, we forecast the general failure rate of the Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine, the failures which required overhaul maintenance and six categorical failures using multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) model on DTREG commercial software. The results also give an insight into the reliability of the engine turbine under actual operating conditions, which can be used by aircraft operators for assessing system and component failures and customizing the maintenance programs recommended by the manufacturer.

A comparison of the thermal inactivation kinetics of human norovirus surrogates and hepatitis A virus in buffered cell culture medium.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2014-09-01

Human noroviruses and hepatitis A virus (HAV) are considered as epidemiologically significant causes of foodborne disease. Therefore, studies are needed to bridge existing data gaps and determine appropriate parameters for thermal inactivation of human noroviruses and HAV. The objectives of this research were to compare the thermal inactivation kinetics of human norovirus surrogates (murine norovirus (MNV-1), and feline calicivirus (FCV-F9)) and HAV in buffered medium (2-ml vials), compare first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, calculate Arrhenius activation energy for each model, and evaluate model efficiency using selected statistical criteria. The D-values calculated from the first-order model (50-72 °C) ranged from 0.21-19.75 min for FCV-F9, 0.25-36.28 min for MNV-1, and 0.88-56.22 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the tD = 1 (time to destroy 1 log) for FCV-F9, MNV-1 and HAV at the same temperatures ranged from 0.10-13.27, 0.09-26.78, and 1.03-39.91 min, respectively. The z-values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 9.66 °C, 9.16 °C, and 14.50 °C, respectively, using the Weibull model. For the first order model, z-values were 9.36 °C, 9.32 °C, and 12.49 °C for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV, respectively. For the Weibull model, estimated activation energies for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 225, 278, and 182 kJ/mol, respectively, while the calculated activation energies for the first order model were 195, 202, and 171 kJ/mol, respectively. Knowledge of the thermal inactivation kinetics of norovirus surrogates and HAV will allow the development of processes that produce safer food products and improve consumer safety. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Probabilistic Sizing and Verification of Space Ceramic Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denaux, David; Ballhause, Dirk; Logut, Daniel; Lucarelli, Stefano; Coe, Graham; Laine, Benoit

2012-07-01

Sizing of ceramic parts is best optimised using a probabilistic approach which takes into account the preexisting flaw distribution in the ceramic part to compute a probability of failure of the part depending on the applied load, instead of a maximum allowable load as for a metallic part. This requires extensive knowledge of the material itself but also an accurate control of the manufacturing process. In the end, risk reduction approaches such as proof testing may be used to lower the final probability of failure of the part. Sizing and verification of ceramic space structures have been performed by Astrium for more than 15 years, both with Zerodur and SiC: Silex telescope structure, Seviri primary mirror, Herschel telescope, Formosat-2 instrument, and other ceramic structures flying today. Throughout this period of time, Astrium has investigated and developed experimental ceramic analysis tools based on the Weibull probabilistic approach. In the scope of the ESA/ESTEC study: “Mechanical Design and Verification Methodologies for Ceramic Structures”, which is to be concluded in the beginning of 2012, existing theories, technical state-of-the-art from international experts, and Astrium experience with probabilistic analysis tools have been synthesized into a comprehensive sizing and verification method for ceramics. Both classical deterministic and more optimised probabilistic methods are available, depending on the criticality of the item and on optimisation needs. The methodology, based on proven theory, has been successfully applied to demonstration cases and has shown its practical feasibility.

Self-organized criticality in complex systems: Applicability to the interoccurrent and recurrent statistical behavior of earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, Sergey G.

The concept of self-organized criticality is associated with scale-invariant, fractal behavior; this concept is also applicable to earthquake systems. It is known that the interoccurrent frequency-size distribution of earthquakes in a region is scale-invariant and obeys the Gutenberg-Richter power-law dependence. Also, the interoccurrent time-interval distribution is known to obey Poissonian statistics excluding aftershocks. However, to estimate the hazard risk for a region it is necessary to know also the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault. This behavior has been investigated in the literature, however, major questions remain unresolved. The reason is the small number of earthquakes in observed sequences. To overcome this difficulty this research utilizes numerical simulations of a slider-block model and a sand-pile model. Also, experimental observations of creep events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault are processed and sequences up to 100 events are studied. Then the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault or at a given fault is investigated. It is shown that both the recurrent frequency-size and the time-interval behaviors of earthquakes obey the Weibull distribution.

Statistical theory on the analytical form of cloud particle size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wei; McFarquhar, Greg

2017-11-01

Several analytical forms of cloud particle size distributions (PSDs) have been used in numerical modeling and remote sensing retrieval studies of clouds and precipitation, including exponential, gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions. However, there is no satisfying physical explanation as to why certain distribution forms preferentially occur instead of others. Theoretically, the analytical form of a PSD can be derived by directly solving the general dynamic equation, but no analytical solutions have been found yet. Instead of using a process level approach, the use of the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) for determining the analytical form of PSDs from the perspective of system is examined here. Here, the issue of variability under coordinate transformations that arises using the Gibbs/Shannon definition of entropy is identified, and the use of the concept of relative entropy to avoid these problems is discussed. Focusing on cloud physics, the four-parameter generalized gamma distribution is proposed as the analytical form of a PSD using the principle of maximum (relative) entropy with assumptions on power law relations between state variables, scale invariance and a further constraint on the expectation of one state variable (e.g. bulk water mass). DOE ASR.

The Weibull probabilities analysis on the single kenaf fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, I.; Sarip, S.; Bani, N. A.; Ibrahim, M. H.; Hassan, M. Z.

2018-05-01

Kenaf fiber has a great potential to be replaced with the synthetic composite due to their advantages such as environmentally friendly and outstanding performance. However, the main issue of this natural fiber that to be used in structural composite is inconsistency of their mechanical properties. Here, the influence of the gage length on the mechanical properties of single kenaf fiber was evaluated. This fiber was tested using the Universal testing machine at a loading rate of 1mm per min following ASTM D3822 standard. In this study, the different length of treated fiber including 20, 30 and 40mm were being tested. Following, Weibull probabilities analysis was used to characterize the tensile strength and Young modulus of kenaf fiber. The predicted average tensile strength from this approach is in good agreement with experimental results for the obtained parameter.

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Huarui; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.; Kuball, Martin

2015-01-01

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage "hot spots" at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7-0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which is consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.

On the non-Poissonian repetition pattern of FRB121102

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppermann, Niels; Yu, Hao-Ran; Pen, Ue-Li

2018-04-01

The Fast Radio Burst FRB121102 has been observed to repeat in an irregular fashion. Using published timing data of the observed bursts, we show that Poissonian statistics are not a good description of this random process. As an alternative, we suggest to describe the intervals between bursts with a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter smaller than one, which allows for the clustered nature of the bursts. We quantify the amount of clustering using the parameters of the Weibull distribution and discuss the consequences that it has for the detection probabilities of future observations and for the optimization of observing strategies. Allowing for this generalization, we find a mean repetition rate of r=5.7^{+3.0}_{-2.0} per day and index k=0.34^{+0.06}_{-0.05} for a correlation function ξ(t) = (t/t0)k - 1.

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

This is the third annual technical report for the program entitled, Improved Silicon Carbide for Advanced Heat Engines, for the period February 16, 1987 to February 15, 1988. The objective of the original program was the development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines. Injection molding is the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals of the revised program are to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in 4-point loading. Two tasks are discussed: Task 1 which involves materials and process improvements, and Task 2 which is a MOR bar matrix to improve strength and reliability. Many statistically designed experiments were completed under task 1 which improved the composition of the batches, the mixing of the powders, the sinter and anneal cycles. The best results were obtained by an attritor mixing process which yielded strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and an individual Weibull modulus of 16.8 for a 9-sample group. Strengths measured at 1200 and 1400 C were equal to the room temperature strength. Annealing of machined test bars significantly improved the strength. Molding yields were measured and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. The second iteration of the Task 2 matrix experiment is described.

Flexural strength and reliability of monolithic and trilayer ceramic structures obtained by the CAD-on technique.

PubMed

Basso, G R; Moraes, R R; Borba, M; Griggs, J A; Della Bona, A

2015-12-01

To evaluate the flexural strength, Weibull modulus, fracture toughness, and failure behavior of ceramic structures obtained by the CAD-on technique, testing the null hypothesis that trilayer structures show similar properties to monolithic structures. Bar-shaped (1.8mm×4mm×16mm) monolithic specimens of zirconia (IPS e.max ZirCAD - Ivoclar Vivadent) and trilayer specimens of zirconia/fusion ceramic/lithium dissilicate (IPS e.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max CAD Crystall./Connect/IPS e.max CAD, Ivoclar Vivadent) were fabricated (n=30). Specimens were tested in flexure in 37°C deionized water using a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 0.5mm/min. Failure loads were recorded, and the flexural strength values were calculated. Fractography principles were used to examine the fracture surfaces under optical and scanning electron microscopy. Data were statistically analyzed using Student's t-test and Weibull statistics (α=0.05). Monolithic and trilayer specimens showed similar mean flexural strengths, characteristic strengths, and Weibull moduli. Trilayer structures showed greater mean critical flaw and fracture toughness values than monolithic specimens (p<0.001). Most critical flaws in the trilayer groups were located on the Y-TZP surface subjected to tension and propagated catastrophically. Trilayer structures showed no flaw deflection at the interface. Considering the CAD-on technique, the trilayer structures showed greater fracture toughness than the monolithic zirconia specimens. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability. Part 1: Retrieved cloud liquid water path at three ARM sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Dong; Campos, Edwin; Liu, Yangang

2014-09-01

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability are examined for their dependence on averaging scales and best representation of probability density function with the decade-long retrieval products of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from the tropical western Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The statistical moments of LWP show some seasonal variation at the SGP and NSA sites but not much at the TWP site. It is found that the standard deviation, relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean), and skewness all quickly increase with the averaging window size when the window size is small and become more or less flat when the window size exceeds 12 h. On average, the cloud LWP at the TWP site has the largest values of standard deviation, relative dispersion, and skewness, whereas the NSA site exhibits the least. Correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the mean LWP and the standard deviation. The skewness is found to be closely related to the relative dispersion with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. The comparison further shows that the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions reasonably explain the observed relationship between skewness and relative dispersion over a wide range of scales.

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability. Part 1: Retrieved cloud liquid water path at three ARM sites: Observed cloud variability at ARM sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Dong; Campos, Edwin; Liu, Yangang

2014-09-17

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability are examined for their dependence on averaging scales and best representation of probability density function with the decade-long retrieval products of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from the tropical western Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The statistical moments of LWP show some seasonal variation at the SGP and NSA sites but not much at the TWP site. It is found that the standard deviation, relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean), and skewness allmore » quickly increase with the averaging window size when the window size is small and become more or less flat when the window size exceeds 12 h. On average, the cloud LWP at the TWP site has the largest values of standard deviation, relative dispersion, and skewness, whereas the NSA site exhibits the least. Correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the mean LWP and the standard deviation. The skewness is found to be closely related to the relative dispersion with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. The comparison further shows that the log normal, Weibull, and gamma distributions reasonably explain the observed relationship between skewness and relative dispersion over a wide range of scales.« less

The Physical State of Emulsified Edible Oil Modulates Its in Vitro Digestion.

PubMed

Guo, Qing; Bellissimo, Nick; Rousseau, Dérick

2017-10-18

Emulsified lipid digestion was tailored by manipulating the physical state of dispersed oil droplets in whey protein stabilized oil-in-water (O/W) emulsions, where the oil phase consisted of one of five ratios of soybean oil (SO) and fully hydrogenated soybean oil (FHSO). The evolution in particle size distribution, structural changes during oral, gastric, and intestinal digestion, and free fatty acid release during intestinal digestion were all investigated. Irrespective of the physical state and structure of the dispersed oil/fat, all emulsions were stable against droplet size increases during oral digestion. During gastric digestion, the 50:50 SO:FHSO emulsion was more stable against physical breakdown than any other emulsion. All emulsions underwent flocculation and coalescence or partial coalescence upon intestinal digestion, with the SO emulsion being hydrolyzed the most rapidly. The melting point of all emulsions containing FHSO was above 37 °C, with the presence of solid fat within the dispersed oil droplets greatly limiting lipolysis. Fat crystal polymorph and nanoplatelet size did not play an important role in the rate and extent of lipid digestion. Free fatty acid release modeled by the Weibull distribution function showed that the rate of lipid digestion (κ) decreased with increasing solid fat content, and followed an exponential relationship (R 2 = 0.95). Overall, lipid digestion was heavily altered by the physical state of the dispersed oil phase within O/W emulsions.

A model for hematopoietic death in man from irradiation of bone marrow during radioimmunotherapy.

PubMed

Scott, B R; Dillehay, L E

1990-11-01

There are numerous institutions worldwide performing clinical trials of radioimmunotherapy (RIT) for cancer. For RIT, an exponentially decaying radionuclide is attached by using a chelating agent to a specific monoclonal or polyclonal tumour antibody (e.g. antiferritin IgG). The major limitation to RIT is toxicity to normal tissue in organs other than the one containing the tumour (e.g. bone marrow). The focus of this manuscript is on modelling the risk (or probability) of hematopoietic death in man for exponentially decaying patterns of high-energy beta irradiation (e.g. 90Y) of bone marrow by radioimmunoglobulin injected into the blood. The analytical solutions presented are only applicable to protocols for which significant uptake of radioactivity by the bone marrow does not occur, and only for high energy beta emitters. However, the generic equation used to obtain the analytical solutions is applicable to any continuous pattern of high energy beta irradiation. A model called the "normalized dose model" was used to generate calculated values for the LD50 as a function of the effective half-time for the radioimmunoglobulin in the blood. A less complicated empirical model was used to describe the calculated values. This model is presumed to be valid for effective half-times in blood of up to about 20 days. For longer effective half-times, the LD50 can be estimated using the normalized-dose model presented. In this manuscript, we also provide a modified Weibull model that allows estimation of the risk of hematopoietic death for single or multiple injections (in one cycle) of radioimmunoglobulin, for patients with normal susceptibility to irradiation and for patients with heightened susceptibility. With the modified Weibull model, the risk of hematopoietic death depends on the level of medical treatment provided to mitigate radiation injuries.

The effects of simulated bone loss on the implant-abutment assembly and likelihood of fracture: an in vitro study.

PubMed

Manzoor, Behzad; Suleiman, Mahmood; Palmer, Richard M

2013-01-01

The crestal bone level around a dental implant may influence its strength characteristics by offering protection against mechanical failures. Therefore, the present study investigated the effect of simulated bone loss on modes, loads, and cycles to failure in an in vitro model. Different amounts of bone loss were simulated: 0, 1.5, 3.0, and 4.5 mm from the implant head. Forty narrow-diameter (3.0-mm) implant-abutment assemblies were tested using compressive bending and cyclic fatigue testing. Weibull and accelerated life testing analysis were used to assess reliability and functional life. Statistical analyses were performed using the Fisher-Exact test and the Spearman ranked correlation. Compressive bending tests showed that the level of bone loss influenced the load-bearing capacity of implant-abutment assemblies. Fatigue testing showed that the modes, loads, and cycles to failure had a statistically significant relationship with the level of bone loss. All 16 samples with bone loss of 3.0 mm or more experienced horizontal implant body fractures. In contrast, 14 of 16 samples with 0 and 1.5 mm of bone loss showed abutment and screw fractures. Weibull and accelerated life testing analysis indicated a two-group distribution: the 0- and 1.5-mm bone loss samples had better functional life and reliability than the 3.0- and 4.5-mm samples. Progressive bone loss had a significant effect on modes, loads, and cycles to failure. In addition, bone loss influenced the functional life and reliability of the implant-abutment assemblies. Maintaining crestal bone levels is important in ensuring biomechanical sustainability and predictable long-term function of dental implant assemblies.

Observation of radiation damage induced by single-ion hits at the heavy ion microbeam system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamiya, Tomihiro; Sakai, Takuro; Hirao, Toshio; Oikawa, Masakazu

2001-07-01

A single-ion hit system combined with the JAERI heavy ion microbeam system can be applied to observe individual phenomena induced by interactions between high-energy ions and a semiconductor device using a technique to measure the pulse height of transient current (TC) signals. The reduction of the TC pulse height for a Si PIN photodiode was measured under irradiation of 15 MeV Ni ions onto various micron-sized areas in the diode. The data containing damage effect by these irradiations were analyzed with least-square fitting using a Weibull distribution function. Changes of the scale and the shape parameters as functions of the width of irradiation areas brought us an assumption that a charge collection in a diode has a micron level lateral extent larger than a spatial resolution of the microbeam at 1 μm. Numerical simulations for these measurements were made with a simplified two-dimensional model based on this assumption using a Monte Carlo method. Calculated data reproducing the pulse-height reductions by single-ion irradiations were analyzed using the same function as that for the measurement. The result of this analysis, which shows the same tendency in change of parameters as that by measurements, seems to support our assumption.

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion.

PubMed

Nazif-Muñoz, José Ignacio

2015-01-01

The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975. In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957-2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out. Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption. Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning

PubMed Central

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-01-01

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images’ spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines. PMID:27367703

Assessment of the technological reliability of a hybrid constructed wetland for wastewater treatment in a mountain eco-tourist farm in Poland.

PubMed

Jucherski, Andrzej; Nastawny, Maria; Walczowski, Andrzej; Jóźwiakowski, Krzysztof; Gajewska, Magdalena

2017-06-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the technological reliability of a domestic hybrid wastewater treatment installation consisting of a classic three-chambered (volume 6 m 3 ) septic tank, a vertical flow trickling bed filled with granules of a calcinated clay material (KERAMZYT), a special wetland bed constructed on a slope, and a permeable pond used as a receiver. The test treatment plant was located at a mountain eco-tourist farm on the periphery of the spa municipality of Krynica-Zdrój, Poland. The plant's operational reliability in reducing the concentration of organic matter, measured as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD 5 ) and chemical oxygen demand (COD), was 100% when modelled by both the Weibull and the lognormal distributions. The respective reliability values for total nitrogen removal were 76.8% and 77.0%, total suspended solids - 99.5% and 92.6%, and PO 4 -P - 98.2% and 95.2%, with the differences being negligible. The installation was characterized by a very high level of technological reliability when compared with other solutions of this type. The Weibull method employed for statistical evaluation of technological reliability can also be used for comparison purposes. From the ecological perspective, the facility presented in the study has proven to be an effective tool for protecting local aquifer areas.

Predicting near-ground vortex lifetimes using Weibull density functions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-08

To mitigate safety hazards posed by near-ground vortex lateral transport, under : instrument flight rules (IFR), parallel runway operations must adopt aircraft spacing : standards that often reduce capacity. Once the phenomenon of lateral transport i...

Competing risk models in reliability systems, a weibull distribution model with bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, Ismed; Satria Gondokaryono, Yudi

2016-02-01

In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range between the true value and the maximum likelihood estimated value lines.

Mechanical, Chemical and Microstructural Characterization of Monazite-Coated Silicon Carbide Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, N. P.; Wheeler, D. R.; Chen, Y. L.

2000-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers and those having monazite surface coatings, deposited by atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition, were measured at room temperature and the Weibull statistical parameters determined. The average tensile strengths of uncoated Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers were 3.19 +/- 0.73 and 2.78 +/- 0.53 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41 and 5.52, respectively. The monazite-coated Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers showed strength loss of approx. 10 and 15 percent, respectively, compared with the as-received fibers. The elemental compositions of the fibers and the coatings were analyzed using scanning Auger microprobe and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The LaPO4 coating on Hi-Nicalon fibers was approximately stoichiometric and about 50 nm thick. The coating on the Sylramic fibers extended to a depth of about 100 to 150 nm. The coating may have been stoichiometric LaPO4 in the first 30 to 40 nm of the layer. However, the surface roughness of Sylramic fiber made this profile somewhat difficult to interpret. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and selected area electron diffraction. Hi-Nicalon fiber consists of fine beta-SiC nanocrystals ranging in size from 1 to 30 mn embedded in an amorphous matrix. Sylramic is a polycrystalline stoichiometric silicon carbide fiber consisting of submicron beta-SiC crystallites ranging from 100 to 300 nm. Small amount of TiB2 nanocrystallites (approx. 50 nm) are also present. The LaPO4 coating on Hi-Nicalon fibers consisted of a chain of peanut shape particles having monazite-(La) structure. The coating on Sylramic fibers consisted of two layers. The inner layer was a chain of peanut shape particles having monazite-(La) structure. The outer layer was comprised of much smaller particles with a microcrystalline structure.

Microstructural, Chemical and Mechanical Characterization of Polymer-Derived Hi-Nicalon Fibers with Surface Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.; Chen, Yuan L.

1998-01-01

Room temperature tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having BN/SiC, p-BN/SiC, and p-B(Si)N/SiC surface coatings, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, were measured using an average fiber diameter of 13.5 microns. The Weibull statistical parameters were determined for each fiber. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon on was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. Strength of fibers coated with BN/SiC did not change. However, coat with p-BN/SiC and p-B(Si)N/SiC surface layers showed strength loss of approx. 10 and 35 percent, respectively, compared with as-received fibers. The elemental compositions of the fibers and the coatings were analyzed using scanning Auger microprobe and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. The BN coating was contaminated with a large concentration of carbon and some oxygen. In contrast, p-BN, p-B(Si)N, and SiC coatings did not show any contamination. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and selected area electron diffraction. Hi-Nicalon fiber consists of the P-SIC nanocrystals ranging in size from 1 to 30 nm embedded in an amorphous matrix. TEM analysis of the BN coating revealed four distinct layers with turbostatic structure. The p-BN layer was turbostratic and showed considerable preferred orientation. The p-B(Si)N was glassy and the silicon and boron were uniformly distributed. The silicon carbide coating was polycrystalline with a columnar structure along the growth direction. The p-B(Si)N/SiC coatings were more uniform, less defective and of better quality than the BN/SiC or the p-BN/SiC coatings.

Life and reliability models for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Knorr, R. J.; Coy, J. J.

1982-01-01

Computer models of life and reliability are presented for planetary gear trains with a fixed ring gear, input applied to the sun gear, and output taken from the planet arm. For this transmission the input and output shafts are co-axial and the input and output torques are assumed to be coaxial with these shafts. Thrust and side loading are neglected. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distributions of the individual reliabilities of the in transmission components. The system model is also a Weibull distribution. The load versus life model for the system is a power relationship as the models for the individual components. The load-life exponent and basic dynamic capacity are developed as functions of the components capacities. The models are used to compare three and four planet, 150 kW (200 hp), 5:1 reduction transmissions with 1500 rpm input speed to illustrate their use.

Pricing of premiums for equity-linked life insurance based on joint mortality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Parmikanti, K.; Irianingsih, I.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

Life insurance equity - linked is a financial product that not only offers protection, but also investment. The calculation of equity-linked life insurance premiums generally uses mortality tables. Because of advances in medical technology and reduced birth rates, it appears that the use of mortality tables is less relevant in the calculation of premiums. To overcome this problem, we use a combination mortality model which in this study is determined based on Indonesian Mortality table 2011 to determine the chances of death and survival. In this research, we use the Combined Mortality Model of the Weibull, Inverse-Weibull, and Gompertz Mortality Model. After determining the Combined Mortality Model, simulators calculate the value of the claim to be given and the premium price numerically. By calculating equity-linked life insurance premiums well, it is expected that no party will be disadvantaged due to the inaccuracy of the calculation result

Creep test observation of viscoelastic failure of edible fats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vithanage, C. R.; Grimson, M. J.; Smith, B. G.; Wills, P. R.

2011-03-01

A rheological creep test was used to investigate the viscoelastic failure of five edible fats. Butter, spreadable blend and spread were selected as edible fats because they belong to three different groups according to the Codex Alimentarius. Creep curves were analysed according to the Burger model. Results were fitted to a Weibull distribution representing the strain-dependent lifetime of putative fibres in the material. The Weibull shape and scale (lifetime) parameters were estimated for each substance. A comparison of the rheometric measurements of edible fats demonstrated a clear difference between the three different groups. Taken together the results indicate that butter has a lower threshold for mechanical failure than spreadable blend and spread. The observed behaviour of edible fats can be interpreted using a model in which there are two types of bonds between fat crystals; primary bonds that are strong and break irreversibly, and secondary bonds, which are weaker but break and reform reversibly.

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

Estimation of Slow Crack Growth Parameters for Constant Stress-Rate Test Data of Advanced Ceramics and Glass by the Individual Data and Arithmetic Mean Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Salem, Jonathan A.; Holland, Frederic A.

1997-01-01

The two estimation methods, individual data and arithmetic mean methods, were used to determine the slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n and D) of advanced ceramics and glass from a large number of room- and elevated-temperature constant stress-rate ('dynamic fatigue') test data. For ceramic materials with Weibull modulus greater than 10, the difference in the SCG parameters between the two estimation methods was negligible; whereas, for glass specimens exhibiting Weibull modulus of about 3, the difference was amplified, resulting in a maximum difference of 16 and 13 %, respectively, in n and D. Of the two SCG parameters, the parameter n was more sensitive to the estimation method than the other. The coefficient of variation in n was found to be somewhat greater in the individual data method than in the arithmetic mean method.

Reliability of High-Voltage Tantalum Capacitors. Parts 3 and 4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Weibull grading test is a powerful technique that allows selection and reliability rating of solid tantalum capacitors for military and space applications. However, inaccuracies in the existing method and non-adequate acceleration factors can result in significant, up to three orders of magnitude, errors in the calculated failure rate of capacitors. This paper analyzes deficiencies of the existing technique and recommends more accurate method of calculations. A physical model presenting failures of tantalum capacitors as time-dependent-dielectric-breakdown is used to determine voltage and temperature acceleration factors and select adequate Weibull grading test conditions. This model is verified by highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperature and voltage conditions for three types of solid chip tantalum capacitors. It is shown that parameters of the model and acceleration factors can be calculated using a general log-linear relationship for the characteristic life with two stress levels.

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Huarui, E-mail: huarui.sun@bristol.ac.uk; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.

2015-01-26

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage “hot spots” at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7–0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which ismore » consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.« less

Experimental investigation of mode I fracture for brittle tube-shaped particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stasiak, Marta; Combe, Gaël; Desrues, Jacques; Richefeu, Vincent; Villard, Pascal; Armand, Gilles; Zghondi, Jad

2017-06-01

We focus herein on the mechanical behavior of highly crushable grains. The object of our interest, named shell, is a hollow cylinder grain with ring cross-section, made of baked clay. The objective is to model the fragmentation of such shells, by means of discrete element (DE) approach. To this end, fracture modes I (opening fracture) and II (in-plane shear fracture) have to be investigated experimentally. This paper is essentially dedicated to mode I fracture. Therefore, a campaign of Brazilian-like compression tests, that result in crack opening, has been performed. The distribution of the occurrence of tensile strength is shown to obey a Weibull distribution for the studied shells, and Weibull's modulus was quantified. Finally, an estimate of the numerical/physical parameters required in a DE model (local strength), is proposed on the basis of the energy required to fracture through a given surface in mode I or II.

Particle size distributions by transmission electron microscopy: an interlaboratory comparison case study

PubMed Central

Rice, Stephen B; Chan, Christopher; Brown, Scott C; Eschbach, Peter; Han, Li; Ensor, David S; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Bonevich, John; Vladár, András E; Hight Walker, Angela R; Zheng, Jiwen; Starnes, Catherine; Stromberg, Arnold; Ye, Jia; Grulke, Eric A

2015-01-01

This paper reports an interlaboratory comparison that evaluated a protocol for measuring and analysing the particle size distribution of discrete, metallic, spheroidal nanoparticles using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The study was focused on automated image capture and automated particle analysis. NIST RM8012 gold nanoparticles (30 nm nominal diameter) were measured for area-equivalent diameter distributions by eight laboratories. Statistical analysis was used to (1) assess the data quality without using size distribution reference models, (2) determine reference model parameters for different size distribution reference models and non-linear regression fitting methods and (3) assess the measurement uncertainty of a size distribution parameter by using its coefficient of variation. The interlaboratory area-equivalent diameter mean, 27.6 nm ± 2.4 nm (computed based on a normal distribution), was quite similar to the area-equivalent diameter, 27.6 nm, assigned to NIST RM8012. The lognormal reference model was the preferred choice for these particle size distributions as, for all laboratories, its parameters had lower relative standard errors (RSEs) than the other size distribution reference models tested (normal, Weibull and Rosin–Rammler–Bennett). The RSEs for the fitted standard deviations were two orders of magnitude higher than those for the fitted means, suggesting that most of the parameter estimate errors were associated with estimating the breadth of the distributions. The coefficients of variation for the interlaboratory statistics also confirmed the lognormal reference model as the preferred choice. From quasi-linear plots, the typical range for good fits between the model and cumulative number-based distributions was 1.9 fitted standard deviations less than the mean to 2.3 fitted standard deviations above the mean. Automated image capture, automated particle analysis and statistical evaluation of the data and fitting coefficients provide a framework for assessing nanoparticle size distributions using TEM for image acquisition. PMID:26361398

The effect of hospital care on early survival after penetrating trauma.

PubMed

Clark, David E; Doolittle, Peter C; Winchell, Robert J; Betensky, Rebecca A

2014-12-01

The effectiveness of emergency medical interventions can be best evaluated using time-to-event statistical methods with time-varying covariates (TVC), but this approach is complicated by uncertainty about the actual times of death. We therefore sought to evaluate the effect of hospital intervention on mortality after penetrating trauma using a method that allowed for interval censoring of the precise times of death. Data on persons with penetrating trauma due to interpersonal assault were combined from the 2008 to 2010 National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the 2004 to 2010 National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models for survival time (t SURV ) were estimated, with TVC assumed to have constant effects for specified time intervals following hospital arrival. The Weibull model was repeated with t SURV interval-censored to reflect uncertainty about the precise times of death, using an imputation method to accommodate interval censoring along with TVC. All models showed that mortality was increased by older age, female sex, firearm mechanism, and injuries involving the head/neck or trunk. Uncensored models showed a paradoxical increase in mortality associated with the first hour in a hospital. The interval-censored model showed that mortality was markedly reduced after admission to a hospital, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63, 0.73) during the first 30 min declining to a HR of 0.01 after 120 min. Admission to a verified level I trauma center (compared to other hospitals in the NTDB) was associated with a further reduction in mortality, with a HR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.82, 0.97). Time-to-event models with TVC and interval censoring can be used to estimate the effect of hospital care on early mortality after penetrating trauma or other acute medical conditions and could potentially be used for interhospital comparisons.

Modeling of pathogen survival during simulated gastric digestion.

PubMed

Koseki, Shige; Mizuno, Yasuko; Sotome, Itaru

2011-02-01

The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model of pathogenic bacterial inactivation kinetics in a gastric environment in order to further understand a part of the infectious dose-response mechanism. The major bacterial pathogens Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. were examined by using simulated gastric fluid adjusted to various pH values. To correspond to the various pHs in a stomach during digestion, a modified logistic differential equation model and the Weibull differential equation model were examined. The specific inactivation rate for each pathogen was successfully described by a square-root model as a function of pH. The square-root models were combined with the modified logistic differential equation to obtain a complete inactivation curve. Both the modified logistic and Weibull models provided a highly accurate fitting of the static pH conditions for every pathogen. However, while the residuals plots of the modified logistic model indicated no systematic bias and/or regional prediction problems, the residuals plots of the Weibull model showed a systematic bias. The modified logistic model appropriately predicted the pathogen behavior in the simulated gastric digestion process with actual food, including cut lettuce, minced tuna, hamburger, and scrambled egg. Although the developed model enabled us to predict pathogen inactivation during gastric digestion, its results also suggested that the ingested bacteria in the stomach would barely be inactivated in the real digestion process. The results of this study will provide important information on a part of the dose-response mechanism of bacterial pathogens.

Modeling of Pathogen Survival during Simulated Gastric Digestion ▿

PubMed Central

Koseki, Shige; Mizuno, Yasuko; Sotome, Itaru

2011-01-01

The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model of pathogenic bacterial inactivation kinetics in a gastric environment in order to further understand a part of the infectious dose-response mechanism. The major bacterial pathogens Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. were examined by using simulated gastric fluid adjusted to various pH values. To correspond to the various pHs in a stomach during digestion, a modified logistic differential equation model and the Weibull differential equation model were examined. The specific inactivation rate for each pathogen was successfully described by a square-root model as a function of pH. The square-root models were combined with the modified logistic differential equation to obtain a complete inactivation curve. Both the modified logistic and Weibull models provided a highly accurate fitting of the static pH conditions for every pathogen. However, while the residuals plots of the modified logistic model indicated no systematic bias and/or regional prediction problems, the residuals plots of the Weibull model showed a systematic bias. The modified logistic model appropriately predicted the pathogen behavior in the simulated gastric digestion process with actual food, including cut lettuce, minced tuna, hamburger, and scrambled egg. Although the developed model enabled us to predict pathogen inactivation during gastric digestion, its results also suggested that the ingested bacteria in the stomach would barely be inactivated in the real digestion process. The results of this study will provide important information on a part of the dose-response mechanism of bacterial pathogens. PMID:21131530

Assessing a Tornado Climatology from Global Tornado Intensity Distributions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feuerstein, Bernold; Dotzek, Nikolai; Grieser, Jürgen

2005-02-01

Recent work demonstrated that the shape of tornado intensity distributions from various regions worldwide is well described by Weibull functions. This statistical modeling revealed a strong correlation between the fit parameters c for shape and b for scale regardless of the data source. In the present work it is shown that the quality of the Weibull fits is optimized if only tornado reports of F1 and higher intensity are used and that the c-b correlation does indeed reflect a universal feature of the observed tornado intensity distributions. For regions with likely supercell tornado dominance, this feature is the number ratio of F4 to F3 tornado reports R(F4/F3) = 0.238. The c-b diagram for the Weibull shape and scale parameters is used as a climatological chart, which allows different types of tornado climatology to be distinguished, presumably arising from supercell versus nonsupercell tornadogenesis. Assuming temporal invariance of the climatology and using a detection efficiency function for tornado observations, a stationary climatological probability distribution from large tornado records (U.S. decadal data 1950-99) is extracted. This can be used for risk assessment, comparative studies on tornado intensity distributions worldwide, and estimates of the degree of underreporting for areas with poor databases. For the 1990s U.S. data, a likely tornado underreporting of the weak events (F0, F1) by a factor of 2 can be diagnosed, as well as asymptotic climatological c,b values of c = 1.79 and b = 2.13, to which a convergence in the 1950-99 U.S. decadal data is verified.

An investigation into the use of surface waves for the real-time inspection of polymer composites during fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linstrom, Elizabeth Jane

A new approach to the nondestructive evaluation of polymer matrix/graphite fiber composites is presented. This technique permits the determination of the top ply bond strength of a laminate based on the results of ultrasonic testing. This technique is designed to be used for the real-time, nondestructive evaluation of composites during tape laying. By separately bonding the top ply of thermoset and thermoplastic polymer composite laminates, a poor ply bond was achieved solely at the interface of the top ply and the rest of the laminate. Using angled incidence, a 5 MHz, 4 musecond ultrasonic pulse was induced into the composite samples. This created waves traveling along the surface of the composite samples that were picked up by a receiving transducer. The received signal was cross-correlated with an artificially constructed replica of the input signal. The maximum amplitude of the cross-correlated signal was recorded. The cross-correlated signal was then converted to the frequency spectra using a fast Fourier transform. The maximum amplitude of the frequency spectra was then recorded. These measurements were repeated at 18 to 30 different locations on each composite sample. The resulting collection of maximum amplitudes of cross-correlated signals and frequency spectra were fit to two parameter Weibull distributions. The composite samples were destructively evaluated using a flat-wise tensile test. The B-basis values of the ultrasonic data Weibull distributions were compared to the B-basis values of the Weibull distribution of the strength data. A good correlation was found.

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, Gerd M.; Omotoso, Oluseun; Chen, Guangming; Evans, John W.

2012-01-01

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

A net volume equation for Indiana.

Treesearch

W. Brad Smith; Carol A. Weist

1982-01-01

Describes a Weibull-type volume equation for Indiana developed as part of the ongoing Resource Evaluation research in the Central States. Equation coefficients are presented by species groupings for both cubic foot and board foot volumes for three tree class categories.

The effects of temperature gradient and growth rate on the morphology and fatigue properties of MAR-M246(Hf)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, D. D.; Alter, W. S.; Hamilton, W. D.; Parr, R. A.

1989-01-01

MAR-M246(Hf) is a nickel based superalloy used in the turbopump blades of the Space Shuttle main engines. The effects are considered of temperature gradient (G) and growth rate (R) on the microstructure and fatigue properties of this superalloy. The primary dendrite arm spacings were found to be inversely proportional to both temperature gradient and growth rate. Carbide and gamma - gamma prime morphology trends were related to G/R ratios. Weibull analysis of fatigue results shows the characteristic life to be larger by a factor of 10 for the low gradient/fast rate pairing of G and R, while the reliability (beta) was lower.

Dynamic Fragmentation of Jointed Rock Blocks During Rockslide-Avalanches: Insights From Discrete Element Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Tao; Crosta, Giovanni Battista; Dattola, Giuseppe; Utili, Stefano

2018-04-01

The dynamic fragmentation of jointed rock blocks during rockslide avalanches has been investigated by discrete element method simulations for a multiple arrangement of a rock block sliding over a simple slope geometry. The rock blocks are released along an inclined sliding plane and subsequently collide onto a flat horizontal plane at a sharp kink point. The contact force chains generated by the impact appear initially at the bottom frontal corner of the rock block and then propagate radially upward to the top rear part of the block. The jointed rock blocks exhibit evident contact force concentration and discontinuity of force wave propagation near the joint, associating with high energy dissipation of granular dynamics. The corresponding force wave propagation velocity can be less than 200 m/s, which is much smaller than that of an intact rock (1,316 m/s). The concentration of contact forces at the bottom leads to high rock fragmentation intensity and momentum boosts, facilitating the spreading of many fine fragments to the distal ends. However, the upper rock block exhibits very low rock fragmentation intensity but high energy dissipation due to intensive friction and damping, resulting in the deposition of large fragments near the slope toe. The size and shape of large fragments are closely related to the orientation and distribution of the block joints. The cumulative fragment size distribution can be well fitted by the Weibull's distribution function, with very gentle and steep curvatures at the fine and coarse size ranges, respectively. The numerical results of fragment size distribution can match well some experimental and field observations.

Non-local damage rheology and size effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyakhovsky, V.

2011-12-01

We study scaling relations controlling the onset of transiently-accelerating fracturing and transition to dynamic rupture propagation in a non-local damage rheology model. The size effect is caused principally by growth of a fracture process zone, involving stress redistribution and energy release associated with a large fracture. This implies that rupture nucleation and transition to dynamic propagation are inherently scale-dependent processes. Linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) and local damage mechanics are formulated in terms of dimensionless strain components and thus do not allow introducing any space scaling, except linear relations between fracture length and displacements. Generalization of Weibull theory provides scaling relations between stress and crack length at the onset of failure. A powerful extension of the LEFM formulation is the displacement-weakening model which postulates that yielding is complete when the crack wall displacement exceeds some critical value or slip-weakening distance Dc at which a transition to kinetic friction is complete. Scaling relations controlling the transition to dynamic rupture propagation in slip-weakening formulation are widely accepted in earthquake physics. Strong micro-crack interaction in a process zone may be accounted for by adopting either integral or gradient type non-local damage models. We formulate a gradient-type model with free energy depending on the scalar damage parameter and its spatial derivative. The damage-gradient term leads to structural stresses in the constitutive stress-strain relations and a damage diffusion term in the kinetic equation for damage evolution. The damage diffusion eliminates the singular localization predicted by local models. The finite width of the localization zone provides a fundamental length scale that allows numerical simulations with the model to achieve the continuum limit. A diffusive term in the damage evolution gives rise to additional damage diffusive time scale associated with the structural length scale. The ratio between two time scales associated with damage accumulation and diffusion, the damage diffusivity ratio, reflects the role of the diffusion-controlled delocalization. We demonstrate that localized fracturing occurs at the damage diffusivity ratio below certain critical value leading to a linear scaling between stress and crack length compatible with size effect for failures at crack initiation. A subseuqent quasi-static fracture growth is self-similar with increasing size of the process zone proportional to the fracture length. At a certain stage, controlled by dynamic weakening, the self-similarity breaks down and crack velocity significantly deviates from that predicted by the quasi-static regime, the size of the process zone decreases, and the rate of crack growth ceases to be controlled by the rate of damage increase. Furthermore, the crack speed approaches that predicted by the elasto-dynamic equation. The non-local damage rheology model predicts that the nucleation size of the dynamic fracture scales with fault zone thickness distance of the stress interraction.

Transient Reliability of Ceramic Structures For Heat Engine Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.

2002-01-01

The objectives of this report was to develop a methodology to predict the time-dependent reliability (probability of failure) of brittle material components subjected to transient thermomechanical loading, taking into account the change in material response with time. This methodology for computing the transient reliability in ceramic components subjected to fluctuation thermomechanical loading was developed, assuming SCG (Slow Crack Growth) as the delayed mode of failure. It takes into account the effect of varying Weibull modulus and materials with time. It was also coded into a beta version of NASA's CARES/Life code, and an example demonstrating its viability was presented.

Impact of nonzero boresight pointing error on ergodic capacity of MIMO FSO communication systems.

PubMed

Boluda-Ruiz, Rubén; García-Zambrana, Antonio; Castillo-Vázquez, Beatriz; Castillo-Vázquez, Carmen

2016-02-22

A thorough investigation of the impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the ergodic capacity of multiple-input/multiple-output (MIMO) free-space optical (FSO) systems with equal gain combining (EGC) reception under different turbulence models, which are modeled as statistically independent, but not necessarily identically distributed (i.n.i.d.) is addressed in this paper. Novel closed-form asymptotic expressions at high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for the ergodic capacity of MIMO FSO systems are derived when different geometric arrangements of the receive apertures at the receiver are considered in order to reduce the effect of nonzero inherent boresight displacement, which is inevitably present when more than one receive aperture is considered. As a result, the asymptotic ergodic capacity of MIMO FSO systems is evaluated over log-normal (LN), gamma-gamma (GG) and exponentiated Weibull (EW) atmospheric turbulence in order to study different turbulence conditions, different sizes of receive apertures as well as different aperture averaging conditions. It is concluded that the use of single-input/multiple-output (SIMO) and MIMO techniques can significantly increase the ergodic capacity respect to the direct path link when the inherent boresight displacement takes small values, i.e. when the spacing among receive apertures is not too big. The effect of nonzero additional boresight errors, which is due to the thermal expansion of the building, is evaluated in multiple-input/single-output (MISO) and single-input/single-output (SISO) FSO systems. Simulation results are further included to confirm the analytical results.

Adjusting for treatment switching in randomised controlled trials - A simulation study and a simplified two-stage method.

PubMed

Latimer, Nicholas R; Abrams, K R; Lambert, P C; Crowther, M J; Wailoo, A J; Morden, J P; Akehurst, R L; Campbell, M J

2017-04-01

Estimates of the overall survival benefit of new cancer treatments are often confounded by treatment switching in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) - whereby patients randomised to the control group are permitted to switch onto the experimental treatment upon disease progression. In health technology assessment, estimates of the unconfounded overall survival benefit associated with the new treatment are needed. Several switching adjustment methods have been advocated in the literature, some of which have been used in health technology assessment. However, it is unclear which methods are likely to produce least bias in realistic RCT-based scenarios. We simulated RCTs in which switching, associated with patient prognosis, was permitted. Treatment effect size and time dependency, switching proportions and disease severity were varied across scenarios. We assessed the performance of alternative adjustment methods based upon bias, coverage and mean squared error, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. We found that when the treatment effect was not time-dependent, rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and iterative parameter estimation methods produced low levels of bias. However, in the presence of a time-dependent treatment effect, these methods produced higher levels of bias, similar to those produced by an inverse probability of censoring weights method. The inverse probability of censoring weights and structural nested models produced high levels of bias when switching proportions exceeded 85%. A simplified two-stage Weibull method produced low bias across all scenarios and provided the treatment switching mechanism is suitable, represents an appropriate adjustment method.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

[Preparation and in vitro release characteristics of vincristine sulphate loaded poly (butylcyanoacrylate) nanoparticles].

PubMed

Tan, Rong; Liu, Ying; Feng, Nianping; Zhao, Jihui

2011-06-01

To prepare vincristine sulphate loaded poly (butylcyanoacrylate) nanoparticles (VCR-PBCA-NPs) and to investigate the in vitro release charactersitics. VCR-PBCA-NPs were prepared by emulsion polymerization method, and characterized for morphology, particle size, drug encapsulation efficiency and loading efficiency. The formulation was optimized using central composite design and response surface methodology. In vitro release study of VCR-PBCA-NPs was performed by dialysis technique. Model fitting was used to determine the kinetics and to discuss the mechanism. The nanoparticles were spherical and uniform with a mean diameter of (98.9 +/- 3.05) nm. The drug encapsulation efficiency and loading efficiency were (55.23 +/- 0.96)% and (7.87 +/- 0.11)%, respectively. In vitro release results showed that 63.66% of VCR was released from VCR-PBCA-NPs in 4 h, and the Weibull model fitted VCR release pattern best. The VCR-PBCA-NPs prepared in this study showed sustained release compared with VCR solution.

In vitro and in vivo evaluation of novel NGR-modified liposomes containing brucine.

PubMed

Li, Shu; Wang, Xi-Peng

2017-01-01

In this study, a novel NGR (Asn-Gly-Arg) peptide-modified liposomal brucine was prepared by using spray-drying method. The surface morphology of the liposomes, encapsulation efficiency and particle size were investigated. The data showed that the addition of NGR did not produce any significant influence on brucine liposomes in terms of particle size or zeta potential. In addition, after 3 months of storage, no dramatic change such as visible aggregation, drug content changes or precipitation in the appearance of NGR-brucine liposomes occurred. The in vitro release results indicated that the release of brucine from NGR liposomes was similar to that of liposomes, demonstrating that the NGR modification did not affect brucine release. The in vitro drug-release kinetic model of NGR-brucine liposomes fitted well with the Weibull's equation. In vivo, NGR-brucine liposomes could significantly extend the bioavailability of brucine; however, there was no significant difference observed in the pharmacokinetic parameters between liposomes and NGR liposomes after intravenous administration. Antitumor activity results showed that NGR-modified liposomes exhibited less toxicity and much higher efficacy in HepG2-bearing mice compared with non-modified liposomes. The enhanced antitumor activity might have occurred because brucine was specifically recognized by NGR receptor on the surface of tumor cells, which enhanced the intracellular uptake of drugs.

An Experimental Investigation of Transverse Tension Fatigue Characterization of IM6/3501-6 Composite Materials Using a Three-Point Bend Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peck, Ann W.

1998-01-01

As composites are introduced into more complex structures with out-of-plane loadings, a better understanding is needed of the out-of-plane, matrix-dominated failure mechanisms. This work investigates the transverse tension fatigue characteristics of IM6/3501 composite materials. To test the 90 degree laminae, a three-point bend test was chosen, potentially minimizing handling and gripping issues associated with tension tests. A finite element analysis was performed of a particular specimen configuration to investigate the influence of specimen size on the stress distribution for a three-point bend test. Static testing of 50 specimens of 9 different sized configurations produced a mean transverse tensile strength of 61.3 Mpa (8.0 ksi). The smallest configuration (10.2 mm wide, Span-to-thickness ratio of 3) consistently exhibited transverse tensile failures. A volume scale effect was difficult to discern due to the large scatter of the data. Static testing of 10 different specimens taken from a second panel produced a mean transverse tensile strength of 82.7 Mpa (12.0 ksi). Weibull parameterization of the data was possible, but due to variability in raw material and/or manufacturing, more replicates are needed for greater confidence. Three-point flex fatigue testing of the smallest configuration was performed on 59 specimens at various levels of the mean static transverse tensile strength using an R ratio of 0.1 and a frequency of 20 Hz. A great deal of scatter was seen in the data. The majority of specimens failed near the center loading roller. To determine whether the scatter in the fatigue data is due to variability in raw material and/or the manufacturing process, additional testing should be performed on panels manufactured from different sources.

Risk estimates for CO exposure in man based on behavioral and physiological responses in rodents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, M. K.

1983-01-01

An examination of animal response to CO is studied along with potential models for extrapolating animal test data to humans. The best models for extrapolating data were found to be the Probit and Weibull models.

MSW Time to Tumor Model and Supporting Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The multistage Weibull (MSW) time-to-tumor model and related documentation were developed principally (but not exclusively) for conducting time-to-tumor analyses to support risk assessments under the IRIS program. These programs and related docum...

Bonding effectiveness to different chemically pre-treated dental zirconia.

PubMed

Inokoshi, Masanao; Poitevin, André; De Munck, Jan; Minakuchi, Shunsuke; Van Meerbeek, Bart

2014-09-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different chemical pre-treatments on the bond durability to dental zirconia. Fully sintered IPS e.max ZirCAD (Ivoclar Vivadent) blocks were subjected to tribochemical silica sandblasting (CoJet, 3M ESPE). The zirconia samples were additionally pre-treated using one of four zirconia primers/adhesives (Clearfil Ceramic Primer, Kuraray Noritake; Monobond Plus, Ivoclar Vivadent; Scotchbond Universal, 3M ESPE; Z-PRIME Plus, Bisco). Finally, two identically pre-treated zirconia blocks were bonded together using composite cement (RelyX Ultimate, 3M ESPE). The specimens were trimmed at the interface to a cylindrical hourglass and stored in distilled water (7 days, 37 °C), after which they were randomly tested as is or subjected to mechanical ageing involving cyclic tensile stress (10 N, 10 Hz, 10,000 cycles). Subsequently, the micro-tensile bond strength was determined, and SEM fractographic analysis performed. Weibull analysis revealed the highest Weibull scale and shape parameters for the 'Clearfil Ceramic Primer/mechanical ageing' combination. Chemical pre-treatment of CoJet (3M ESPE) sandblasted zirconia using Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) and Monobond Plus (Ivoclar Vivadent) revealed a significantly higher bond strength than when Scotchbond Universal (3M ESPE) and Z-PRIME Plus (Bisco) were used. After ageing, Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) revealed the most stable bond durability. Combined mechanical/chemical pre-treatment, the latter with either Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) or Monobond Plus (Ivoclar Vivadent), resulted in the most durable bond to zirconia. As a standard procedure to durably bond zirconia to tooth tissue, the application of a combined 10-methacryloyloxydecyl dihydrogen phosphate/silane ceramic primer to zirconia is clinically highly recommended.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Comparison of Thermal and Non-Thermal Processing of Swine Feed and the Use of Selected Feed Additives on Inactivation of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV).

PubMed

Trudeau, Michaela P; Verma, Harsha; Sampedro, Fernando; Urriola, Pedro E; Shurson, Gerald C; McKelvey, Jessica; Pillai, Suresh D; Goyal, Sagar M

2016-01-01

Infection with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes diarrhea, vomiting, and high mortality in suckling pigs. Contaminated feed has been suggested as a vehicle of transmission for PEDV. The objective of this study was to compare thermal and electron beam processing, and the inclusion of feed additives on the inactivation of PEDV in feed. Feed samples were spiked with PEDV and then heated to 120-145°C for up to 30 min or irradiated at 0-50 kGy. Another set of feed samples spiked with PEDV and mixed with Ultracid P (Nutriad), Activate DA (Novus International), KEM-GEST (Kemin Agrifood), Acid Booster (Agri-Nutrition), sugar or salt was incubated at room temperature (~25°C) for up to 21 days. At the end of incubation, the virus titers were determined by inoculation of Vero-81 cells and the virus inactivation kinetics were modeled using the Weibull distribution model. The Weibull kinetic parameter delta represented the time or eBeam dose required to reduce virus concentration by 1 log. For thermal processing, delta values ranged from 16.52 min at 120°C to 1.30 min at 145°C. For eBeam processing, a target dose of 50 kGy reduced PEDV concentration by 3 log. All additives tested were effective in reducing the survival of PEDV when compared with the control sample (delta = 17.23 days). Activate DA (0.81) and KEM-GEST (3.28) produced the fastest inactivation. In conclusion, heating swine feed at temperatures over 130°C or eBeam processing of feed with a dose over 50 kGy are effective processing steps to reduce PEDV survival. Additionally, the inclusion of selected additives can decrease PEDV survivability.

Effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength and probability to fracture of Y-TZP zirconia ceramics for all-ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Siarampi, Eleni; Kontonasaki, Eleana; Andrikopoulos, Konstantinos S; Kantiranis, Nikolaos; Voyiatzis, George A; Zorba, Triantafillia; Paraskevopoulos, Konstantinos M; Koidis, Petros

2014-12-01

Dental zirconia restorations should present long-term clinical survival and be in service within the oral environment for many years. However, low temperature degradation could affect their mechanical properties and survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength of yttrium-stabilized (Y-TZP) zirconia ceramics for ceramic restorations. One hundred twenty bar-shaped specimens were prepared from two ceramics (ZENO Zr (WI) and IPS e.max(®) ZirCAD (IV)), and loaded until fracture according to ISO 6872. The specimens from each ceramic (nx=60) were divided in three groups (control, aged for 5h, aged for 10h). One-way ANOVA was used to assess statistically significant differences among flexural strength values (P<0.05). The variability of the flexural strength values was analyzed using the two-parameter Weibull distribution function, which was applied for the estimation of Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ0). The crystalline phase polymorphs of the materials (tetragonal, t, and monoclinic, m, zirconia) were investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, Raman spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. A slight increase of the flexural strength after 5h, and a decrease after 10h of aging, was recorded for both ceramics, however statistically significant was for the WI group (P<0.05). Both ceramics presented a t→m phase transformation, with the m-phase increasing from 4 to 5% at 5h to around 15% after 10h. The significant reduction of the flexural strength after 10h of in vitro aging, suggests high fracture probability for one of the zirconia ceramics tested. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Empirical model based on Weibull distribution describing the destruction kinetics of natural microbiota in pineapple (Ananas comosus L.) puree during high-pressure processing.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Snehasis; Rao, Pavuluri Srinivasa; Mishra, Hari Niwas

2015-10-15

High pressure inactivation of natural microbiota viz. aerobic mesophiles (AM), psychrotrophs (PC), yeasts and molds (YM), total coliforms (TC) and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in pineapple puree was studied within the experimental domain of 0.1-600 MPa and 30-50 °C with a treatment time up to 20 min. A complete destruction of yeasts and molds was obtained at 500 MPa/50 °C/15 min; whereas no counts were detected for TC and LAB at 300 MPa/30 °C/15 min. A maximum of two log cycle reductions was obtained for YM during pulse pressurization at the severe process intensity of 600 MPa/50 °C/20 min. The Weibull model clearly described the non-linearity of the survival curves during the isobaric period. The tailing effect, as confirmed by the shape parameter (β) of the survival curve, was obtained in case of YM (β<1); whereas a shouldering effect (β>1) was observed for the other microbial groups. Analogous to thermal death kinetics, the activation energy (Ea, kJ·mol(-1)) and the activation volume (Va, mL·mol(-1)) values were computed further to describe the temperature and pressure dependencies of the scale parameter (δ, min), respectively. A higher δ value was obtained for each microbe at a lower temperature and it decreased with an increase in pressure. A secondary kinetic model was developed describing the inactivation rate (k, min(-1)) as a function of pressure (P, MPa) and temperature (T, K) including the dependencies of Ea and Va on P and T, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ZERODUR: deterministic approach for strength design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2012-12-01

There is an increasing request for zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR substrates being capable of enduring higher operational static loads or accelerations. The integrity of structures such as optical or mechanical elements for satellites surviving rocket launches, filigree lightweight mirrors, wobbling mirrors, and reticle and wafer stages in microlithography must be guaranteed with low failure probability. Their design requires statistically relevant strength data. The traditional approach using the statistical two-parameter Weibull distribution suffered from two problems. The data sets were too small to obtain distribution parameters with sufficient accuracy and also too small to decide on the validity of the model. This holds especially for the low failure probability levels that are required for reliable applications. Extrapolation to 0.1% failure probability and below led to design strengths so low that higher load applications seemed to be not feasible. New data have been collected with numbers per set large enough to enable tests on the applicability of the three-parameter Weibull distribution. This distribution revealed to provide much better fitting of the data. Moreover it delivers a lower threshold value, which means a minimum value for breakage stress, allowing of removing statistical uncertainty by introducing a deterministic method to calculate design strength. Considerations taken from the theory of fracture mechanics as have been proven to be reliable with proof test qualifications of delicate structures made from brittle materials enable including fatigue due to stress corrosion in a straight forward way. With the formulae derived, either lifetime can be calculated from given stress or allowable stress from minimum required lifetime. The data, distributions, and design strength calculations for several practically relevant surface conditions of ZERODUR are given. The values obtained are significantly higher than those resulting from the two-parameter Weibull distribution approach and no longer subject to statistical uncertainty.

Kinetic Analysis of Isothermal Decomposition Process of Sodium Bicarbonate Using the Weibull Probability Function—Estimation of Density Distribution Functions of the Apparent Activation Energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janković, Bojan

2009-10-01

The decomposition process of sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) has been studied by thermogravimetry in isothermal conditions at four different operating temperatures (380 K, 400 K, 420 K, and 440 K). It was found that the experimental integral and differential conversion curves at the different operating temperatures can be successfully described by the isothermal Weibull distribution function with a unique value of the shape parameter ( β = 1.07). It was also established that the Weibull distribution parameters ( β and η) show independent behavior on the operating temperature. Using the integral and differential (Friedman) isoconversional methods, in the conversion (α) range of 0.20 ≤ α ≤ 0.80, the apparent activation energy ( E a ) value was approximately constant ( E a, int = 95.2 kJmol-1 and E a, diff = 96.6 kJmol-1, respectively). The values of E a calculated by both isoconversional methods are in good agreement with the value of E a evaluated from the Arrhenius equation (94.3 kJmol-1), which was expressed through the scale distribution parameter ( η). The Málek isothermal procedure was used for estimation of the kinetic model for the investigated decomposition process. It was found that the two-parameter Šesták-Berggren (SB) autocatalytic model best describes the NaHCO3 decomposition process with the conversion function f(α) = α0.18(1-α)1.19. It was also concluded that the calculated density distribution functions of the apparent activation energies ( ddfE a ’s) are not dependent on the operating temperature, which exhibit the highly symmetrical behavior (shape factor = 1.00). The obtained isothermal decomposition results were compared with corresponding results of the nonisothermal decomposition process of NaHCO3.

Evaluation of the resistance to cyclic fatigue among ProTaper Next, ProTaper Universal, and Vortex Blue rotary instruments.

PubMed

Nguyen, Harrison H; Fong, Hanson; Paranjpe, Avina; Flake, Natasha M; Johnson, James D; Peters, Ove A

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the fracture resistance to cyclic fatigue of ProTaper Next (PTN; Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties, Tulsa, OK), ProTaper Universal (PTU, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties), and Vortex Blue (VB, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties) rotary instruments. Twenty instruments each of PTN X1-X5, PTU S1-F5, and VB 20/04-50/04 were rotated until fracture in a simulated canal of 90° and a 5-mm radius using a custom-made testing platform. The number of cycles to fracture (NCF) was calculated. Weibull analysis was used to predict the maximum number of cycles when 99% of the instrument samples survive. VB 20/04-30/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S1-F5 and PTN X1-X5. VB 35/04-45/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S2-F5 and PTN X2-X5. PTN X1 had higher NCF than PTU S1-F5. PTN X2 had higher NCF than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution predicted the highest number of cycles at which 99% of instruments survive to be 766 cycles for VB 25/04 and the lowest to be 50 cycles for PTU F2. Under the limitations of this study, VB 20/04-45/04 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTN X2-X5 and PTU S2-F5. PTN X1 and X2 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution appears to be a feasible and potentially clinically relevant model to predict resistance to cyclic fatigue. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. All rights reserved.

Evidence of the most stretchable egg sac silk stalk, of the European spider of the year Meta menardi.

PubMed

Lepore, Emiliano; Marchioro, Andrea; Isaia, Marco; Buehler, Markus J; Pugno, Nicola M

2012-01-01

Spider silks display generally strong mechanical properties, even if differences between species and within the same species can be observed. While many different types of silks have been tested, the mechanical properties of stalks of silk taken from the egg sac of the cave spider Meta menardi have not yet been analyzed. Meta menardi has recently been chosen as the "European spider of the year 2012", from the European Society of Arachnology. Here we report a study where silk stalks were collected directly from several caves in the north-west of Italy. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) images showed that stalks are made up of a large number of threads, each of them with diameter of 6.03 ± 0.58 µm. The stalks were strained at the constant rate of 2 mm/min, using a tensile testing machine. The observed maximum stress, strain and toughness modulus, defined as the area under the stress-strain curve, are 0.64 GPa, 751% and 130.7 MJ/m(3), respectively. To the best of our knowledge, such an observed huge elongation has never been reported for egg sac silk stalks and suggests a huge unrolling microscopic mechanism of the macroscopic stalk that, as a continuation of the protective egg sac, is expected to be composed by fibres very densely and randomly packed. The Weibull statistics was used to analyze the results from mechanical testing, and an average value of Weibull modulus (m) is deduced to be in the range of 1.5-1.8 with a Weibull scale parameter (σ(0)) in the range of 0.33-0.41 GPa, showing a high coefficient of correlation (R(2) = 0.97).

Evidence of the Most Stretchable Egg Sac Silk Stalk, of the European Spider of the Year Meta menardi

PubMed Central

Lepore, Emiliano; Marchioro, Andrea; Isaia, Marco; Buehler, Markus J.; Pugno, Nicola M.

2012-01-01

Spider silks display generally strong mechanical properties, even if differences between species and within the same species can be observed. While many different types of silks have been tested, the mechanical properties of stalks of silk taken from the egg sac of the cave spider Meta menardi have not yet been analyzed. Meta menardi has recently been chosen as the “European spider of the year 2012”, from the European Society of Arachnology. Here we report a study where silk stalks were collected directly from several caves in the north-west of Italy. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) images showed that stalks are made up of a large number of threads, each of them with diameter of 6.03±0.58 µm. The stalks were strained at the constant rate of 2 mm/min, using a tensile testing machine. The observed maximum stress, strain and toughness modulus, defined as the area under the stress-strain curve, are 0.64 GPa, 751% and 130.7 MJ/m3, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, such an observed huge elongation has never been reported for egg sac silk stalks and suggests a huge unrolling microscopic mechanism of the macroscopic stalk that, as a continuation of the protective egg sac, is expected to be composed by fibres very densely and randomly packed. The Weibull statistics was used to analyze the results from mechanical testing, and an average value of Weibull modulus (m) is deduced to be in the range of 1.5–1.8 with a Weibull scale parameter (σ 0) in the range of 0.33–0.41 GPa, showing a high coefficient of correlation (R2 = 0.97). PMID:22347380

Failure probability of three designs of zirconia crowns

PubMed Central

Ramos, G. Freitas; Monteiro, E. Barbosa Carmona; Bottino, M.A.; Zhang, Y.; de Melo, R. Marques

2015-01-01

Objectives This study utilized a 2-parameter Weibull analysis for evaluation of lifetime of fully or partially porcelain-/glaze-veneered zirconia crowns after fatigue test. Methods Sixty first molars were selected and prepared for full-coverage crowns with three different designs(n = 20): Traditional –crowns with zirconia framework covered with feldspathic porcelain; Modified– crowns partially covered with veneering porcelain; and Monolithic–full-contour zirconia crowns. All specimens were treated with a glaze layer. Specimens were subjected to mechanical cycling (100N, 3Hz) with a piston with hemispherical tip (Ø=6 mm) until the specimens failed or up to 2×106 cycles. Every 500,000 cycles intervals, the fatigue tests were interrupted, and stereomicroscopy (10 X) was used to inspect the specimens for damage. We performed Weibull analysis of interval data to calculate the number of failures in each interval. Results The types and number of failures according to the groups were: cracking (Traditional-13, Modified-6) and chipping (Traditional-4) of the feldspathic porcelain, followed by delamination (Traditional-1) at the veneer/core interface and debonding (Monollithic-2) at the cementation interface. Weibull parameters (beta, scale; and eta, shape), with a two-sided confidence interval of 95%, were: Traditional – 1.25 and 0.9 × 106cycles; Modified– 0.58 and 11.7 × 106 cycles; and Monolithic – 1.05 and 16.5 × 106 cycles. Traditional crowns showed greater susceptibility to fatigue, the Modified group presented higher propensity to early failures, and the Monolithic group showed no susceptibility to fatigue. The Modified and Monolithic groups presented the highest number of crowns with no failures after the fatigue test. Conclusions The three crown designs presented significantly different behaviors under fatigue. The Modified and the Monolithic groups presented less probability to failure after 2×106cycles. PMID:26509988

Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Ernest Y.

1992-01-01

Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

A new silica-infiltrated Y-TZP obtained by the sol-gel method.

PubMed

Campos, T M B; Ramos, N C; Machado, J P B; Bottino, M A; Souza, R O A; Melo, R M

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate silica infiltration into dental zirconia (VITA In-Ceram 2000 YZ, Vita Zahnfabrik) and its effects on zirconia's surface characteristics, structural homogeneity and bonding to a resin cement. Infiltration was performed by immersion of the pre-sintered zirconia specimens in silica sols for five days (ZIn). Negative (pure zirconia specimens, ZCon-) and positive controls (specimens kept in water for 5 days, ZCon+) were also performed. After sintering, the groups were evaluated by X-ray diffraction (XRD), grazing angle X-ray diffraction (DRXR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), contact angle measurements, optical profilometry, biaxial flexural test and shear bonding test. Weibull analysis was used to determine the Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ0) of all groups. There were no major changes in strength for the infiltrated group, and homogeneity (m) was also increased. A layer of ZrSiO4 was formed on the surface. The bond strength to resin cement was improved after zirconia infiltration, acid conditioning and the use of an MDP primer. The sol-gel method is an efficient and simple method to increase the homogeneity of zirconia. Infiltration also improved bonding to resin cement. The performance of a zirconia infiltrated by silica gel improved in at least two ways: structural homogeneity and bonding to resin cement. The infiltration is simple to perform and can be easily managed in a prosthesis laboratory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms.

PubMed

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-10-09

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms ( Bacillus subtilis , B. cereus , B. pumilus , Escherichia coli , Pseudomonas fluorescens , Aspergillus niger , Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum ) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O₃/m³ O₂, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process.

Ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives accounting for multiple sources of material stochasticity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, S.; Barua, A.; Zhou, M., E-mail: min.zhou@me.gatech.edu

2014-05-07

Accounting for the combined effect of multiple sources of stochasticity in material attributes, we develop an approach that computationally predicts the probability of ignition of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) under impact loading. The probabilistic nature of the specific ignition processes is assumed to arise from two sources of stochasticity. The first source involves random variations in material microstructural morphology; the second source involves random fluctuations in grain-binder interfacial bonding strength. The effect of the first source of stochasticity is analyzed with multiple sets of statistically similar microstructures and constant interfacial bonding strength. Subsequently, each of the microstructures in the multiple setsmore » is assigned multiple instantiations of randomly varying grain-binder interfacial strengths to analyze the effect of the second source of stochasticity. Critical hotspot size-temperature states reaching the threshold for ignition are calculated through finite element simulations that explicitly account for microstructure and bulk and interfacial dissipation to quantify the time to criticality (t{sub c}) of individual samples, allowing the probability distribution of the time to criticality that results from each source of stochastic variation for a material to be analyzed. Two probability superposition models are considered to combine the effects of the multiple sources of stochasticity. The first is a parallel and series combination model, and the second is a nested probability function model. Results show that the nested Weibull distribution provides an accurate description of the combined ignition probability. The approach developed here represents a general framework for analyzing the stochasticity in the material behavior that arises out of multiple types of uncertainty associated with the structure, design, synthesis and processing of materials.« less

Correction to the Dynamic Tensile Strength of Ice and Ice-Silicate Mixtures (Lange & Ahrens 1983)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S. T.; Ahrens, T. J.

1999-03-01

We present a correction to the Weibull parameters for ice and ice-silicate mixtures (Lange & Ahrens 1983). These parameters relate the dynamic tensile strength to the strain rate. These data are useful for continuum fracture models of ice.

Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo.

PubMed

Tojinbara, Kageaki; Sugiura, K; Yamada, A; Kakitani, I; Kwan, N C L; Sugiura, K

2016-01-01

Data of 98 rabies cases in dogs and cats from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo were used to estimate the probability distribution of the incubation period. Lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions were used to model the incubation period. The maximum likelihood estimates of the mean incubation period ranged from 27.30 to 28.56 days according to different distributions. The mean incubation period was shortest with the lognormal distribution (27.30 days), and longest with the Weibull distribution (28.56 days). The best distribution in terms of AIC value was the lognormal distribution with mean value of 27.30 (95% CI: 23.46-31.55) days and standard deviation of 20.20 (15.27-26.31) days. There were no significant differences between the incubation periods for dogs and cats, or between those for male and female dogs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Age Specific Incidence Anomaly Suggests that Cancers Originate During Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brody, James P.

The accumulation of genetic alterations causes cancers. Since this accumulation takes time, the incidence of most cancers is thought to increase exponentially with age. However, careful measurements of the age-specific incidence show that the specific incidence for many forms of cancer rises with age to a maximum, and then decreases. This decrease in the age-specific incidence with age is an anomaly. Understanding this anomaly should lead to a better understanding of how tumors develop and grow. Here we derive the shape of the age-specific incidence, showing that it should follow the shape of a Weibull distribution. Measurements indicate that the age-specific incidence for colon cancer does indeed follow a Weibull distribution. This analysis leads to the interpretation that for colon cancer two subpopulations exist in the general population: a susceptible population and an immune population. Colon tumors will only occur in the susceptible population. This analysis is consistent with the developmental origins of disease hypothesis and generalizable to many other common forms of cancer.

Expectation maximization-based likelihood inference for flexible cure rate models with Weibull lifetimes.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy; Pal, Suvra

2016-08-01

Recently, a flexible cure rate survival model has been developed by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution. This model includes some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature as special cases. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and expectation maximization algorithm can be used in this case to efficiently estimate the model parameters based on right censored data. In this paper, we consider the competing cause scenario and assuming the time-to-event to follow the Weibull distribution, we derive the necessary steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for estimating the parameters of different cure rate survival models. The standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by inverting the observed information matrix. The method of inference developed here is examined by means of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data on cancer recurrence. © The Author(s) 2013.

Preparation and Mechanical Behavior of Glass-Ceramics from Feldspathic Frits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fernanda A. N. G.; Barbato, Carla N.; França, Silvia C. A.; Silva, Ana Lúcia N.; de Andrade, Mônica C.

2017-10-01

Glass-ceramics were produced from frits with feldspar (79.09% wt/wt), alumina, sodium carbonate, potassium carbonate, borax and cerium dioxide. Feldspathic frits obtained at 1200 °C were shaped and sintered at various temperatures. Flexural strength results were analyzed by using the Weibull statistical distribution. These materials were also characterized by x-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). At 600 °C, an initial leucite formation occurred as a crystalline phase, but the amorphous phase still prevailed, with low flexural strength. On the other hand, when the temperature increased to 800 °C, flexural strength also increased to approximately 70 MPa and Weibull modulus, m = 4.4 . This behavior was explained by the formation of leucite crystals dispersed within the glassy matrix, which hinders, in a certain concentration, the propagation of cracks. However, for the sintering temperature of 1000 °C, flexural strength decreased and may be associated with higher levels of this leucite crystal, in spite of the higher reliability m = 6.6.

A statistical analogy between collapse of solids and death of living organisms: proposal for a 'law of life'.

PubMed

Pugno, Nicola M

2007-01-01

In this paper we present a statistical analogy between the collapse of solids and living organisms; in particular we deduce a statistical law governing their probability of death. We have derived such a law coupling the widely used Weibull Statistics, developed for describing the distribution of the strength of solids, with a general model for ontogenetic growth recently proposed in literature. The main idea presented in this paper is that cracks can propagate in solids and cause their failure as sick cells in living organisms can cause their death. Making a rough analogy, living organisms are found to behave as "growing" mechanical components under cyclic, i.e., fatigue, loadings and composed by a dynamic evolutionary material that, as an ineluctable fate, deteriorates. The implications on biological scaling laws are discussed. As an example, we apply such a Dynamic Weibull Statistics to large data collections on human deaths due to cancer of various types recorded in Italy: a significant agreement is observed.

A two-scale Weibull approach to the failure of porous ceramic structures made by robocasting: possibilities and limits

PubMed Central

Genet, Martin; Houmard, Manuel; Eslava, Salvador; Saiz, Eduardo; Tomsia, Antoni P.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces our approach to modeling the mechanical behavior of cellular ceramics, through the example of calcium phosphate scaffolds made by robocasting for bone-tissue engineering. The Weibull theory is used to deal with the scaffolds’ constitutive rods statistical failure, and the Sanchez-Palencia theory of periodic homogenization is used to link the rod- and scaffold-scales. Uniaxial compression of scaffolds and three-point bending of rods were performed to calibrate and validate the model. If calibration based on rod-scale data leads to over-conservative predictions of scaffold’s properties (as rods’ successive failures are not taken into account), we show that, for a given rod diameter, calibration based on scaffold-scale data leads to very satisfactory predictions for a wide range of rod spacing, i.e. of scaffold porosity, as well as for different loading conditions. This work establishes the proposed model as a reliable tool for understanding and optimizing cellular ceramics’ mechanical properties. PMID:23439936

Results of the Verification of the Statistical Distribution Model of Microseismicity Emission Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cianciara, Aleksander

2016-09-01

The paper presents the results of research aimed at verifying the hypothesis that the Weibull distribution is an appropriate statistical distribution model of microseismicity emission characteristics, namely: energy of phenomena and inter-event time. It is understood that the emission under consideration is induced by the natural rock mass fracturing. Because the recorded emission contain noise, therefore, it is subjected to an appropriate filtering. The study has been conducted using the method of statistical verification of null hypothesis that the Weibull distribution fits the empirical cumulative distribution function. As the model describing the cumulative distribution function is given in an analytical form, its verification may be performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Interpretations by means of probabilistic methods require specifying the correct model describing the statistical distribution of data. Because in these methods measurement data are not used directly, but their statistical distributions, e.g., in the method based on the hazard analysis, or in that that uses maximum value statistics.

Comparative Fatigue Lives of Rubber and PVC Wiper Cylindrical Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Savage, Michael

2002-01-01

Three coating materials for rotating cylindrical-coated wiping rollers were fatigue tested in 2 Intaglio printing presses. The coatings were a hard, cross-linked, plasticized PVC thermoset (P-series); a plasticized PVC (A-series); and a hard, nitryl rubber (R-series). Both 2- and 3-parameter Weibull analyses as well as a cost-benefit analysis were performed. The mean value of life for the R-series coating is 24 and 9 times longer than the P- and A-series coatings, respectively. Both the cost and replacement rate for the R-series coating was significantly less than those for the P- and A-series coatings. At a very high probability of survival the R-series coating is approximately 2 and 6 times the lives of the P- and A-series, respectively, before the first failure occurs. Where all coatings are run to failure, using the mean (life) time between removal (MTBR) for each coating to calculate the number of replacements and costs provides qualitatively similar results to those using a Weibull analysis.

The acquisition of conditioned responding.

PubMed

Harris, Justin A

2011-04-01

This report analyzes the acquisition of conditioned responses in rats trained in a magazine approach paradigm. Following the suggestion by Gallistel, Fairhurst, and Balsam (2004), Weibull functions were fitted to the trial-by-trial response rates of individual rats. These showed that the emergence of responding was often delayed, after which the response rate would increase relatively gradually across trials. The fit of the Weibull function to the behavioral data of each rat was equaled by that of a cumulative exponential function incorporating a response threshold. Thus, the growth in conditioning strength on each trial can be modeled by the derivative of the exponential--a difference term of the form used in many models of associative learning (e.g., Rescorla & Wagner, 1972). Further analyses, comparing the acquisition of responding with a continuously reinforced stimulus (CRf) and a partially reinforced stimulus (PRf), provided further evidence in support of the difference term. In conclusion, the results are consistent with conventional models that describe learning as the growth of associative strength, incremented on each trial by an error-correction process.

Analysis of an experiment aimed at improving the reliability of transmission centre shafts.

PubMed

Davis, T P

1995-01-01

Smith (1991) presents a paper proposing the use of Weibull regression models to establish dependence of failure data (usually times) on covariates related to the design of the test specimens and test procedures. In his article Smith made the point that good experimental design was as important in reliability applications as elsewhere, and in view of the current interest in design inspired by Taguchi and others, we pay some attention in this article to that topic. A real case study from the Ford Motor Company is presented. Our main approach is to utilize suggestions in the literature for applying standard least squares techniques of experimental analysis even when there is likely to be nonnormal error, and censoring. This approach lacks theoretical justification, but its appeal is its simplicity and flexibility. For completeness we also include some analysis based on the proportional hazards model, and in an attempt to link back to Smith (1991), look at a Weibull regression model.

Sample size re-assessment leading to a raised sample size does not inflate type I error rate under mild conditions.

PubMed

Broberg, Per

2013-07-19

One major concern with adaptive designs, such as the sample size adjustable designs, has been the fear of inflating the type I error rate. In (Stat Med 23:1023-1038, 2004) it is however proven that when observations follow a normal distribution and the interim result show promise, meaning that the conditional power exceeds 50%, type I error rate is protected. This bound and the distributional assumptions may seem to impose undesirable restrictions on the use of these designs. In (Stat Med 30:3267-3284, 2011) the possibility of going below 50% is explored and a region that permits an increased sample size without inflation is defined in terms of the conditional power at the interim. A criterion which is implicit in (Stat Med 30:3267-3284, 2011) is derived by elementary methods and expressed in terms of the test statistic at the interim to simplify practical use. Mathematical and computational details concerning this criterion are exhibited. Under very general conditions the type I error rate is preserved under sample size adjustable schemes that permit a raise. The main result states that for normally distributed observations raising the sample size when the result looks promising, where the definition of promising depends on the amount of knowledge gathered so far, guarantees the protection of the type I error rate. Also, in the many situations where the test statistic approximately follows a normal law, the deviation from the main result remains negligible. This article provides details regarding the Weibull and binomial distributions and indicates how one may approach these distributions within the current setting. There is thus reason to consider such designs more often, since they offer a means of adjusting an important design feature at little or no cost in terms of error rate.

Thermal Inactivation Kinetics of Human Norovirus Surrogates and Hepatitis A Virus in Turkey Deli Meat.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2015-07-01

Human noroviruses (HNoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) have been implicated in outbreaks linked to the consumption of presliced ready-to-eat deli meats. The objectives of this research were to determine the thermal inactivation kinetics of HNoV surrogates (murine norovirus 1 [MNV-1] and feline calicivirus strain F9 [FCV-F9]) and HAV in turkey deli meat, compare first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, and calculate Arrhenius activation energy values for each model. The D (decimal reduction time) values in the temperature range of 50 to 72°C calculated from the first-order model were 0.1 ± 0.0 to 9.9 ± 3.9 min for FCV-F9, 0.2 ± 0.0 to 21.0 ± 0.8 min for MNV-1, and 1.0 ± 0.1 to 42.0 ± 5.6 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the tD = 1 (time to destroy 1 log) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV at the same temperatures ranged from 0.1 ± 0.0 to 11.9 ± 5.1 min, from 0.3 ± 0.1 to 17.8 ± 1.8 min, and from 0.6 ± 0.3 to 25.9 ± 3.7 min, respectively. The z (thermal resistance) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 11.3 ± 2.1°C, 11.0 ± 1.6°C, and 13.4 ± 2.6°C, respectively, using the Weibull model. The z values using the first-order model were 11.9 ± 1.0°C, 10.9 ± 1.3°C, and 12.8 ± 1.7°C for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV, respectively. For the Weibull model, estimated activation energies for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 214 ± 28, 242 ± 36, and 154 ± 19 kJ/mole, respectively, while the calculated activation energies for the first-order model were 181 ± 16, 196 ± 5, and 167 ± 9 kJ/mole, respectively. Precise information on the thermal inactivation of HNoV surrogates and HAV in turkey deli meat was generated. This provided calculations of parameters for more-reliable thermal processes to inactivate viruses in contaminated presliced ready-to-eat deli meats and thus to reduce the risk of foodborne illness outbreaks. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Thermal Inactivation Kinetics of Human Norovirus Surrogates and Hepatitis A Virus in Turkey Deli Meat

PubMed Central

Bozkurt, Hayriye; Davidson, P. Michael

2015-01-01

Human noroviruses (HNoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) have been implicated in outbreaks linked to the consumption of presliced ready-to-eat deli meats. The objectives of this research were to determine the thermal inactivation kinetics of HNoV surrogates (murine norovirus 1 [MNV-1] and feline calicivirus strain F9 [FCV-F9]) and HAV in turkey deli meat, compare first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, and calculate Arrhenius activation energy values for each model. The D (decimal reduction time) values in the temperature range of 50 to 72°C calculated from the first-order model were 0.1 ± 0.0 to 9.9 ± 3.9 min for FCV-F9, 0.2 ± 0.0 to 21.0 ± 0.8 min for MNV-1, and 1.0 ± 0.1 to 42.0 ± 5.6 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the tD = 1 (time to destroy 1 log) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV at the same temperatures ranged from 0.1 ± 0.0 to 11.9 ± 5.1 min, from 0.3 ± 0.1 to 17.8 ± 1.8 min, and from 0.6 ± 0.3 to 25.9 ± 3.7 min, respectively. The z (thermal resistance) values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 11.3 ± 2.1°C, 11.0 ± 1.6°C, and 13.4 ± 2.6°C, respectively, using the Weibull model. The z values using the first-order model were 11.9 ± 1.0°C, 10.9 ± 1.3°C, and 12.8 ± 1.7°C for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV, respectively. For the Weibull model, estimated activation energies for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 214 ± 28, 242 ± 36, and 154 ± 19 kJ/mole, respectively, while the calculated activation energies for the first-order model were 181 ± 16, 196 ± 5, and 167 ± 9 kJ/mole, respectively. Precise information on the thermal inactivation of HNoV surrogates and HAV in turkey deli meat was generated. This provided calculations of parameters for more-reliable thermal processes to inactivate viruses in contaminated presliced ready-to-eat deli meats and thus to reduce the risk of foodborne illness outbreaks. PMID:25956775

Statistical behavior of the tensile property of heated cotton fiber

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The temperature dependence of the tensile property of single cotton fiber was studied in the range of 160-300°C using Favimat test, and its statistical behavior was interpreted in terms of structural changes. The tenacity of control cotton fiber was well described by the single Weibull distribution,...

Effect of gloss and heat on the mechanical behaviour of a glass carbomer cement.

PubMed

Menne-Happ, Ulrike; Ilie, Nicoleta

2013-03-01

The effect of gloss and heat on the mechanical behaviour of a recently launched glass carbomer cement (GCP, GCP dental) was evaluated and compared with resin-modified glass ionomer cements (Fuji II LC, GC and Photac Fil Quick Aplicap, 3M ESPE). 120bar-shaped specimens (n=20) were produced, maintained in distilled water at 37°C and tested after one week. The GCP specimens were cured with and without heat application and with and without gloss. The flexural strength and modulus of elasticity in flexural test as well as the micro-mechanical properties (Vickers Hardness, indentation modulus, creep) of the top and bottom surface were evaluated. The amount and size of the fillers, voids and cracks were compared using a light and a scanning electron microscope. In the flexural test, the resin-modified glass ionomer cements performed significantly better than GCP. Fuji II LC and Photac Fil (Weibull parameter: 17.7 and 14.3) proved superior reliability in the flexural test compared to GCP (1.4-2.6). The highest Vickers Hardness and lowest creep were achieved by GCP, whereas Fuji II LC reached the highest indentation modulus. The results of this study proved that relationships exist between the compositions, microstructures and mechanical properties of the cements. Heat treatment and gloss application did not influence the mechanical properties of GCP. The mechanical properties were basically influenced by the type of cement and its microstructure. Considering the measured mechanical properties, there is no need of using gloss or heat when restoring teeth with GCP. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new procedure to analyze the effect of air changes in building energy consumption

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Today, the International Energy Agency is working under good practice guides that integrate appropriate and cost effective technologies. In this paper a new procedure to define building energy consumption in accordance with the ISO 13790 standard was performed and tested based on real data from a Spanish region. Results Results showed that the effect of air changes on building energy consumption can be defined using the Weibull peak function model. Furthermore, the effect of climate change on building energy consumption under several different air changes was nearly nil during the summer season. Conclusions The procedure obtained could be the much sought-after solution to the problem stated by researchers in the past and future research works relating to this new methodology could help us define the optimal improvement in real buildings to reduce energy consumption, and its related carbon dioxide emissions, at minimal economical cost. PMID:24456655

Effect of barium titanate (BaTiO{sub 3}) additive on the short-term DC breakdown strength of polyethylene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, M.S.; Henk, P.O.

1996-12-31

The use of additives to insulating materials is one of the methods to improve certain properties of these materials. Additives can also be used to provide more insight into some processes like conduction, space charge formation and breakdown under certain conditions of field application. In the present paper, the effect of the addition of fine particles 1 wt% BaTiO{sub 3} to plain low density polyethylene (LDPE) on the short-term dc breakdown strength of LDPE at room temperature was investigated. The characteristics of the used polyethylene are as follows: density 0.925 g/cm{sup 3}, melt index 0.25 g/10 min. The BaTiO{sub 3}more » used was laboratory grade with particle size less than 7 {micro}m. Special cylindrical test samples of both undoped and doped materials were used in this investigation. Stainless steel hemispherically tipped electrodes were embedded in the material by molding. The mean value of the gap length between the electrodes was 0.25 mm. The design of the test sample allows for determining the intrinsic breakdown strength of the material. The Weibull plots were used to analyze the breakdown test results. Analysis of the results indicate that the addition of BaTiO{sub 3} to LDPE has reduced the short term dc breakdown strength of the doped material by about 16% if compared with the corresponding value for the plain LDPE. An attempt is made to correlate between the present results, and earlier published results about the effect of BaTiO{sub 3} on dc conductivity and space charge formation in LDPE.« less

Preparation, characterization, pharmacokinetics and tissue distribution of solid lipid nanoparticles loaded with tetrandrine.

PubMed

Li, Su; Ji, Zhaoshuai; Zou, Meijuan; Nie, Xin; Shi, Yijie; Cheng, Gang

2011-09-01

Tetrandrine (TET) is a poorly water-soluble bisbenzylisoquinoline alkaloid. In this study, TET solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) were prepared by a melt-emulsification and ultrasonication technique. Precirol(®) ATO 5, glyceryl monostearate, and stearic acid were used as the lipid matrix for the SLNs, while Lipoid E80, Pluronic F68, and sodium deoxycholate were used as emulsifying and stabilizing agents. The physicochemical characteristics of the TET-SLNs were investigated when it was found that the mean particle size and zeta potential of the TET-SLNs were 134 ± 1.3 nm and -53.8 ± 1.7 mV, respectively, and the entrapment efficiency (EE) was 89.57% ± 0.39%. Differential scanning calorimetry indicated that TET was in an amorphous state in SLNs. TET-SLNs exhibited a higher release rate at a lower pH and a lower release rate at a higher pH. The release pattern of the TET-SLNs followed the Weibull model. The pharmacokinetics of TET-SLNs after intravenous administration to male rats was studied. TET-SLN resulted in a higher plasma concentration and lower clearance. The biodistribution study indicated that TET-SLN showed a high uptake in reticuloendothelial system organs. In conclusion, TET-SLNs with a small particle size, and high EE, can be produced by the method described in this study. The SLN system is a promising approach for the intravenous delivery of tetrandrine.

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

2006-01-01

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Preparation, in vitro release, and pharmacokinetics in rabbits of lyophilized injection of sorafenib solid lipid nanoparticles

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hong; Zhang, Fu-Ming; Yan, Shi-Jun

2012-01-01

Sorafenib solid lipid nanoparticles (S-SLN) were prepared by emulsion evaporation–solidification at low temperature. Morphology was examined by transmission electron microscope. Particle size and zeta potential were determined by laser granularity equipment. Encapsulation efficiency (EE) was detected by Sephadex gel chromatography and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The in vitro release profile of S-SLN was studied with dialysis technology. The lyophilized injection of S-SLN was prepared by freeze drying and analyzed by differential scanning calorimetry. The plasma concentration of sorafenib in blood was determined by HPLC. The solid lipid nanoparticles assumed a spherical shape with an even distribution of diameter and particle size 108.23 ± 7.01 nm (n = 3). The polydispersity index, zeta potential, and EE were determined to be 0.25 ± 0.02, −16.37 ± 0.65 mV, and 93.49% ± 1.87%, respectively (n = 3). The in vitro release accorded with the Weibull distribution model. An equal volume of 15% (w/v) mannitol performed better as the protective agent for a lyophilized injection of S-SLN with a new material phase formation. The pharmacokinetic processes of sorafenib solution and lyophilized injection of S-SLN in vivo were in accordance with the two-compartment and one-compartment models, respectively. S-SLN nanoparticles are thus considered a promising drug-delivery system. PMID:22787390

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms

PubMed Central

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms (Bacillus subtilis, B. cereus, B. pumilus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Aspergillus niger, Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O3/m3 O2, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process. PMID:28991199

Modeling the pulsed light inactivation of microorganisms naturally occurring on vegetable substrates.

PubMed

Izquier, Adriana; Gómez-López, Vicente M

2011-09-01

Pulsed light (PL) is a fast non-thermal method for microbial inactivation. This research studied the kinetics of PL inactivation of microorganisms naturally occurring in some vegetables. Iceberg lettuce, white cabbage and Julienne-style cut carrots were subjected to increasing PL fluences up to 12J/cm(2) in order to study its effect on aerobic mesophilic bacteria determined by plate count. Also, sample temperature increase was determined by infrared thermometry. Survivors' curves were adjusted to several models. No shoulder but tail was observed. The Weibull model showed good fitting performance of data. Results for lettuce were: goodness-of-fit parameter RMSE=0.2289, fluence for the first decimal reduction δ=0.98±0.80J/cm(2) and concavity parameter p=0.33±0.08. Results for cabbage were: RMSE=0.0725, δ=0.81±0.23J/cm(2) and p=0.30±0.02; and for carrot: RMSE=0.1235, δ=0.39±0.24J/cm(2) and p=0.23±0.03. For lettuce, a log-linear and tail model was also suitable. Validation of the Weibull model produced determination coefficients of 0.88-0.96 and slopes of 0.78-0.99. Heating was too low to contribute to inactivation. A single low-energy pulse was enough to achieve one log reduction, with an ultrafast treatment time of 0.5ms. While PL efficacy was found to be limited to high residual counts, the achievable inactivation level may be considered useful for shelf-life extension. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Time to Reflux of Children With Antenatal Hydronephrosis: A Competing Risks Approach.

PubMed

Nazemipour, Maryam; Kajbafzadeh, Abdol-Mohammad; Mohammad, Kazem; Rahimi Foroushani, Abbas; Mahmoudi, Mahmood

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was describing methodological aspects and applying a trivariate Weibull survival model using the competing risks concept to predict time to occurrence different types of reflux (unilateral (left, right) or bilateral) in children with antenatal hydronephrosis. Data from 333 children in Pediatric Urology Research Center of Children's Hospital Medical Center, affiliated with Tehran University of Medical Sciences was used. The effect of some demographic and clinical factors on child's reflux was studied. The assumption of independent between times of different types of reflux was evaluated. Of infants 80.5% were boy. The percentage of children experienced right, left and bilateral reflux or have been censored are 15.3%, 14.1%, 60.4% and 10.2% respectively. For the time of left reflux, variables, Week of diagnosis ANH, UC, UA, HUN, HN, APD_Right, Direction of ANH, CA19-9 baby, Urethra were significant. For the time of right reflux, variables, constipation, UC, UA, HUN, APD_Right, Direction and Severity of ANH, Bladder, and finally for the time of bilateral reflux, variables, Week of diagnosis ANH, Gender, UA, HUN, HN, APD_Left, Urethra, and Bladder were significant P<0.05. In the presence of competing risks, it is inappropriate to use the Kaplan-Meier method and standard Cox model which do not take competing risks into account. Trivariate Weibull survival model using competing risks not only is able to calculate the hazard rate of variables with different type of events but also it will be able to compare the hazard rate within the same type of event with different covariates.

Effect of fabrication pressure on the fatigue performance of Cemex XL acrylic bone cement.

PubMed

Lewis, Gladius; Janna, S I

2004-01-01

During a cemented arthroplasty, the prepared polymerizing dough of acrylic bone cement is subjected to pressurization in a number of ways; first, during delivery into the freshly prepared bone bed, second, during packing in that bed (either digitally or with the aid of a mechanical device), and, third, during the insertion of the prosthesis. Only a few studies have reported on the influence of the level of pressurization experienced during these events (which, depending on the cementing technique used, has been put at between 8 and 273 kPa) on various properties of the cement. That was the focus of the present study, in which the fully reversed tension-compression (+/-15 MPa; 5 Hz) fatigue lives (expressed as number of cycles to fracture, N(f)) of rectangular cross-sectioned "dog-bone" specimens (Type V, per ASTM D 638) fabricated from Cemex XL cement, at pressure applied continuously to the cement dough during curing in the specimen mold, p=75,150, and 300 kPa, were determined. The N(f) results were analyzed using the linearized transformation of the three-parameter Weibull relationship to obtain estimates of the Weibull mean, N(WM), which was taken to be the index of fatigue performance of the specimen set. Over the range of p studied, N(WM) increased as p increased (for example, from 329,118 cycles when p was 75 kPa to 388,496 cycles when p was 300 kPa); however, the increase was not significant over any pair of p increment steps (Mann-Whitney U-test; alpha<0.05).

Compositional analyses and shelf-life modeling of njangsa (ricinodendron heudelotii)seed oil using the weibull hazard method

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study investigated the compositional characteristics and shelf-life of Njangsa seed oil (NSO). Oil from Njangsa had a high polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) content of which alpha eleosteric acid (alpha-ESA), an unusual conjugated linoleic acid was the most prevalent (about 52%). Linoleic acid...

A comparative study between nonlinear regression and artificial neural network approaches for modelling wild oat (Avena fatua) field emergence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Non-linear regression techniques are used widely to fit weed field emergence patterns to soil microclimatic indices using S-type functions. Artificial neural networks present interesting and alternative features for such modeling purposes. In this work, a univariate hydrothermal-time based Weibull m...

Pharmaceutical Evaluation of Cefuroxime Axetil Tablets Available in Drug Market of Pakistan

PubMed Central

Israr, F.; Mahmood, Z. A.; Hassan, F.; Hasan, S. M. F.

2016-01-01

Cefuroxime is a second generation cephalosporin antibiotic with a broad spectrum activity against Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria. The purpose of this research work was to evaluate the pharmaceutical quality standards of four different brands of cefuroxime axetil 125 mg tablets with different price ranges purchased from retail pharmacies of Pakistan. The brands were tested for physicochemical evaluation and in vitro dissolution studies in different medium like 0.07N HCl, distilled water, 0.1N HCl of pH 1.2 and phosphate buffers of pH 4.5 and pH 6.8. Statistical analysis, model dependent (zero order, first order, Korsmeyer-Peppas, Hixson-Crowell, Weibull) and model independent (Difference f1, similarity f2) approaches were applied to multiple dissolution profile of all brands. All brands were found to be similar with reference and meeting the compendial quality standard. Inter brand variation was observed in disintegration time and assay which was resulted in significant differences (P<0.05) in drug release data and Weibull was observed as best fill model. PMID:27168677

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory.

PubMed

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic-scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are "random environment" settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic-scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark's law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)-in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes-and present "randomized counterparts" to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic—scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are “random environment” settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic—scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark’s law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)—in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes—and present “randomized counterparts” to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

Experimental Study on Fatigue Performance of Foamed Lightweight Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Youqiang; Yang, Ping; Li, Yongliang; Zhang, Liujun

2017-12-01

In order to study fatigue performance of foamed lightweight soil and forecast its fatigue life in the supporting project, on the base of preliminary tests, beam fatigue tests on foamed lightweight soil is conducted by using UTM-100 test system. Based on Weibull distribution and lognormal distribution, using the mathematical statistics method, fatigue equations of foamed lightweight soil are obtained. At the same time, according to the traffic load on real road surface of the supporting project, fatigue life of formed lightweight soil is analyzed and compared with the cumulative equivalent axle loads during the design period of the pavement. The results show that even the fatigue life of foamed lightweight soil has discrete property, the linear relationship between logarithmic fatigue life and stress ratio still performs well. Especially, the fatigue life of Weibull distribution is more close to that derived from the lognormal distribution, in the instance of 50% guarantee ratio. In addition, the results demonstrated that foamed lightweight soil as subgrade filler has good anti-fatigue performance, which can be further adopted by other projects in the similar research domain.

Monolithic ceramic analysis using the SCARE program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.

1988-01-01

The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram–Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation. PMID:28394949

Compositional Analyses and Shelf-Life Modeling of Njangsa (Ricinodendron heudelotii) Seed Oil Using the Weibull Hazard Analysis.

PubMed

Abaidoo-Ayin, Harold K; Boakye, Prince G; Jones, Kerby C; Wyatt, Victor T; Besong, Samuel A; Lumor, Stephen E

2017-08-01

This study investigated the compositional characteristics and shelf-life of Njangsa seed oil (NSO). Oil from Njangsa had a high polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) content of which alpha eleostearic acid (α-ESA), an unusual conjugated linoleic acid was the most prevalent (about 52%). Linoleic acid was also present in appreciable amounts (approximately 34%). Our investigations also indicated that the acid-catalyzed transesterification of NSO resulted in lower yields of α-ESA methyl esters, due to isomerization, a phenomenon which was not observed under basic conditions. The triacylglycerol (TAG) profile analysis showed the presence of at least 1 α-ESA fatty acid chain in more than 95% of the oil's TAGs. Shelf-life was determined by the Weibull Hazard Sensory Method, where the end of shelf-life was defined as the time at which 50% of panelists found the flavor of NSO to be unacceptable. This was determined as 21 wk. Our findings therefore support the potential commercial viability of NSO as an important source of physiologically beneficial PUFAs. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

SCARE: A post-processor program to MSC/NASTRAN for the reliability analysis of structural ceramic components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, J. P.

1985-01-01

A computer program was developed for calculating the statistical fast fracture reliability and failure probability of ceramic components. The program includes the two-parameter Weibull material fracture strength distribution model, using the principle of independent action for polyaxial stress states and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive crack theories, all for volume distributed flaws in macroscopically isotropic solids. Both penny-shaped cracks and Griffith cracks are included in the Batdorf shear-sensitive crack response calculations, using Griffith's maximum tensile stress or critical coplanar strain energy release rate criteria to predict mixed mode fracture. Weibull material parameters can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and fracture data. The reliability prediction analysis uses MSC/NASTRAN stress, temperature and volume output, obtained from the use of three-dimensional, quadratic, isoparametric, or axisymmetric finite elements. The statistical fast fracture theories employed, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments.

PubMed

Munkhammar, Joakim; Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram-Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.

Reliability demonstration test for load-sharing systems with exponential and Weibull components

PubMed Central

Hu, Qingpei; Yu, Dan; Xie, Min

2017-01-01

Conducting a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) is a crucial step in production. Products are tested under certain schemes to demonstrate whether their reliability indices reach pre-specified thresholds. Test schemes for RDT have been studied in different situations, e.g., lifetime testing, degradation testing and accelerated testing. Systems designed with several structures are also investigated in many RDT plans. Despite the availability of a range of test plans for different systems, RDT planning for load-sharing systems hasn’t yet received the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a demonstration method for two specific types of load-sharing systems with components subject to two distributions: exponential and Weibull. Based on the assumptions and interpretations made in several previous works on such load-sharing systems, we set the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the total system as the demonstration target. We represent the MTTF as a summation of mean time between successive component failures. Next, we introduce generalized test statistics for both the underlying distributions. Finally, RDT plans for the two types of systems are established on the basis of these test statistics. PMID:29284030

Reliability demonstration test for load-sharing systems with exponential and Weibull components.

PubMed

Xu, Jianyu; Hu, Qingpei; Yu, Dan; Xie, Min

2017-01-01

Conducting a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) is a crucial step in production. Products are tested under certain schemes to demonstrate whether their reliability indices reach pre-specified thresholds. Test schemes for RDT have been studied in different situations, e.g., lifetime testing, degradation testing and accelerated testing. Systems designed with several structures are also investigated in many RDT plans. Despite the availability of a range of test plans for different systems, RDT planning for load-sharing systems hasn't yet received the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a demonstration method for two specific types of load-sharing systems with components subject to two distributions: exponential and Weibull. Based on the assumptions and interpretations made in several previous works on such load-sharing systems, we set the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the total system as the demonstration target. We represent the MTTF as a summation of mean time between successive component failures. Next, we introduce generalized test statistics for both the underlying distributions. Finally, RDT plans for the two types of systems are established on the basis of these test statistics.

A simple linear regression method for quantitative trait loci linkage analysis with censored observations.

PubMed

Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

2006-07-01

Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.

Estimation of the risk of failure for an endodontically treated maxillary premolar with MODP preparation and CAD/CAM ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Li; Chang, Yen-Hsiang; Pa, Che-An

2009-10-01

This study evaluated the risk of failure for an endodontically treated premolar with mesio occlusodistal palatal (MODP) preparation and 3 different computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) ceramic restoration configurations. Three 3-dimensional finite element (FE) models designed with CAD/CAM ceramic onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations were constructed to perform simulations. The Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long-term failure probability relative to different load conditions. The results indicated that the stress values on the enamel, dentin, and luting cement for endocrown restoration were the lowest values relative to the other 2 restorations. Weibull analysis revealed that the individual failure probability in the endocrown enamel, dentin, and luting cement obviously diminished more than those for onlay and conventional crown restorations. The overall failure probabilities were 27.5%, 1%, and 1% for onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations, respectively, in normal occlusal condition. This numeric investigation suggests that endocrown and conventional crown restorations for endodontically treated premolars with MODP preparation present similar longevity.

Unified nano-mechanics based probabilistic theory of quasibrittle and brittle structures: II. Fatigue crack growth, lifetime and scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Jia-Liang; Bažant, Zdeněk P.

2011-07-01

This paper extends the theoretical framework presented in the preceding Part I to the lifetime distribution of quasibrittle structures failing at the fracture of one representative volume element under constant amplitude fatigue. The probability distribution of the critical stress amplitude is derived for a given number of cycles and a given minimum-to-maximum stress ratio. The physical mechanism underlying the Paris law for fatigue crack growth is explained under certain plausible assumptions about the damage accumulation in the cyclic fracture process zone at the tip of subcritical crack. This law is then used to relate the probability distribution of critical stress amplitude to the probability distribution of fatigue lifetime. The theory naturally yields a power-law relation for the stress-life curve (S-N curve), which agrees with Basquin's law. Furthermore, the theory indicates that, for quasibrittle structures, the S-N curve must be size dependent. Finally, physical explanation is provided to the experimentally observed systematic deviations of lifetime histograms of various ceramics and bones from the Weibull distribution, and their close fits by the present theory are demonstrated.

Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2016-03-01

Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

Unit-Sphere Anisotropic Multiaxial Stochastic-Strength Model Probability Density Distribution for the Orientation of Critical Flaws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel

2013-01-01

Models that predict the failure probability of monolithic glass and ceramic components under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" failure models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This report develops a formulation to describe the probability density distribution of the orientation of critical strength-controlling flaws that results from an applied load. This distribution is a function of the multiaxial stress state, the shear sensitivity of the flaws, the Weibull modulus, and the strength anisotropy. Examples are provided showing the predicted response on the unit sphere for various stress states for isotropic and transversely isotropic (anisotropic) materials--including the most probable orientation of critical flaws for offset uniaxial loads with strength anisotropy. The author anticipates that this information could be used to determine anisotropic stiffness degradation or anisotropic damage evolution for individual brittle (or quasi-brittle) composite material constituents within finite element or micromechanics-based software

Argonne National Laboratory Li-alloy/FeS cell testing and R and D programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.

1982-01-01

Groups of 12 or more identical Li-alloy/FeS cells fabricated by Eagle-Picher Industries, Inc. and Gould Inc. were operated at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the status cell test program to obtain data for statistical analysis of cell cycle life and failure modes. The cells were full-size electric vehicle battery cells (150 to 350 Ah capacity) and they were cycled at the 4-h discharge rate and 8-h charge rate. The end of life was defined as a 20% loss of capacity or a decrease in the coulombic efficiency to less than 95%. Seventy-four cells (six groups of identical cells) were cycle-lifemore » tested and the results were analyzed statistically. The ultimate goal of this analysis was to predict cell and battery reliability. Testing of groups of identical cells also provided a means of identifying common failure modes which were eliminated by cell design changes. Mean time to failure (MTTF) for the cells based on the Weibull distribution is presented.« less

Heterogeneous Nucleation of Methane Hydrate in a Water-Decane-Methane Emulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shestakov, V. A.; Kosyakov, V. I.; Manakov, A. Yu.; Stoporev, A. S.; Grachev, E. V.

2018-07-01

Heterogeneous nucleation in disperse systems with metastable disperse phases plays an important role in the mechanisms of environmental and technological processes. The effect the concentration and activity of particles that initiate the formation of a new phase have on nucleation processes in such systems is considered. An approach is proposed that allows construction of a spectrum of particle activity characterizing the features of nucleation in a sample, based on the fraction of crystallized droplets depending on the level of supercooling and the use of Weibull's distribution. The proposed method is used to describe experimental data on the heterogeneous nucleation of methane hydrate in an emulsion in a water-decane-methane system.

The effects of multiple repairs on Inconel 718 weld mechanical properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, C. K.; Nunes, A. C., Jr.; Moore, D.

1991-01-01

Inconel 718 weldments were repaired 3, 6, 9, and 13 times using the gas tungsten arc welding process. The welded panels were machined into mechanical test specimens, postweld heat treated, and nondestructively tested. Tensile properties and high cycle fatigue life were evaluated and the results compared to unrepaired weld properties. Mechanical property data were analyzed using the statistical methods of difference in means for tensile properties and difference in log means and Weibull analysis for high cycle fatigue properties. Statistical analysis performed on the data did not show a significant decrease in tensile or high cycle fatigue properties due to the repeated repairs. Some degradation was observed in all properties, however, it was minimal.

Analysis of flexural strength and contact pressure after simulated chairside adjustment of pressed lithium disilicate glass-ceramic.

PubMed

Ramadhan, Ali; Thompson, Geoffrey A; Maroulakos, Georgios; Berzins, David

2018-04-30

Research evaluating load-to-failure of pressed lithium disilicate glass-ceramic (LDGC) with a clinically validated test after adjustment and repair procedures is scarce. The purpose of this in vitro study was to investigate the effect of the simulated chairside adjustment of the intaglio surface of monolithic pressed LDGC and procedures intended to repair damage. A total of 423 IPS e.max Press (Ivoclar Vivadent AG) disks (15 mm diameter, 1 mm height) were used in the study. The material was tested by using an equibiaxial loading arrangement (n≥30/group) and a contact pressure test (n≥20/group). Specimens were assigned to 1 of 14 groups. One-half was assigned to the equibiaxial load test and the other half underwent contact pressure testing. Testing was performed in 2 parts, before glazing and after glazing. Before-glazing specimens were devested and entered in the test protocol, while after-glazing specimens were devested and glazed before entering the test protocol. Equibiaxial flexure test specimens were placed on a ring-on-ring apparatus and loaded until failure. Contact pressure specimens were cemented to epoxy resin blocks with a resin cement and loaded with a 50-mm diameter hemisphere until failure. Tests were performed on a universal testing machine with a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min. Weibull statistics and likelihood ratio contour plots determined intergroup differences (95% confidence bounds). Before glazing, the equibiaxial flexural strength test and the Weibull and likelihood ratio contour plots demonstrated a significantly higher failure strength for 1EC (188 MPa) than that of the damaged and/or repaired groups. Glazing following diamond-adjustment (1EGG) was the most beneficial post-damage procedure (176 MPa). Regarding the contact pressure test, the Weibull and likelihood ratio contour plots revealed no significant difference between the 1PC (98 MPa) and 1PGG (98 MPa) groups. Diamond-adjustment, without glazing (1EG and 1PG), resulted in the next-to-lowest equibiaxial flexure strength and the lowest contact pressure. After glazing, the strength of all the groups, when subjected to glazing following devesting, increased in comparison with corresponding groups in the before-glazing part of the study. A glazing treatment improved the mechanical properties of diamond-adjusted IPS e.max Press disks when evaluated by equibiaxial flexure and contact pressure tests. Copyright © 2018 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional And Seasonal Aspects Of Within-The-Hour Tec Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koroglu, Ozan; Arikan, Feza; Koroglu, Meltem

2015-04-01

Ionosphere is one of the atmosphere layers which has a plasma structure. Several mechanisms originating from both space and earth itself governs this plasma layer such as solar radiation and geomagnetic effects. Ionosphere plays important role for HF and satellite communication, and space based positioning systems. Therefore, the determination of statistical behavior of ionosphere has utmost importance. The variability of the ionosphere has complex spatio-temporal characteristics, which depends on solar, geomagnetic, gravitational and seismic activities. Total Electron Content (TEC) is one of the major observables for investigating and determining this variability. In this study, spatio-temporal within-the-hour statistical behavior of TEC is determined for Turkey, which is located in mid-latitude, using the TEC estimates from Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN)-Active between the years 2009 and 2012. TEC estimates are obtained as IONOLAB-TEC which is developed by IONOLAB group (www.ionolab.org) from Hacettepe University. IONOLAB-TEC for each station in TNPGN-Active is organized in a database and grouped with respect to years, ionospheric seasons, hours and regions 2 degree by 3 degree, in latitude and longitude, respectively. The data sets are used to calculate within-the-hour parametric Probability Density Functions (PDF). For every year, every region and every hour, a representative PDF is determined. It is observed that TEC values have a strong hourly, seasonal and positional dependence on east-west direction, and the growing trend shifts according to sunrise and sunset times. It is observed that the data are distributed predominantly as Lognormal and Weibull. The averages and standard deviations of the chosen distributions follow the trends in 24 hour diurnal and 11 year solar cycle periods. The regional and seasonal behavior of PDFs are investigated using a representative GPS station within each region. Within-the-hour PDF estimates are grouped into ionospheric seasons as Winter, Summer, March equinox and September equinox. In winter and summer seasons, Lognormal distribution is observed. During equinox seasons, Weibull distribution is observed more frequently. Furthermore, all hourly TEC values in same region are combined in order to improve the reliability and accuracy of the probability density function estimates. It is observed that as being in mid-latitude region, the ionosphere over Turkey has robust characteristics that are distributed as Lognormal and Weibull. Statistical observations on PDF estimates of TEC of the ionosphere over Turkey will contribute to developing a regional and seasonal random field model, which will further contribute to HF channel characterization. This study is supported by a joint grant of TUBITAK 112E568 and RFBR 13-02-91370-CT_a.

Combined Effect of Ultrasound and Mild Temperatures on the Inactivation of E. coli in Fresh Carrot Juice and Changes on its Physicochemical Characteristics.

PubMed

Pokhrel, Prashant Raj; Bermúdez-Aguirre, Daniela; Martínez-Flores, Héctor E; Garnica-Romo, M Guadalupe; Sablani, Shyam; Tang, Juming; Barbosa-Cánovas, Gustavo V

2017-10-01

The combination of ultrasound and mild temperatures to process fruits and vegetables juices is a novel approach that is showing promising results for microbial inactivation and preservation of bioactive compounds and sensory attributes. This study centers on investigating the inactivation of Escherichia coli (ATCC 11755) in carrot juice as a result of the combined effect of ultrasound (24 kHz frequency, 120 μm, and 400 W) with temperature (50, 54, and 58 °C) and processing time (0 to 10 min). In addition, the possible changes in physicochemical properties and the retention of bioactive compounds after processing were analyzed. Microbial inactivation with ultrasound treatment at 50 °C resulted in 3.5 log reduction after 10 min, whereas at 54 °C almost 5 log reduction was attained in the same period of time; meanwhile, for treatment at 58 °C, no viable cells were detected (>5 log reduction) after 2 min. There was no significant difference (P > 0.05) on pH (6.80 to 6.82), °Brix (8.0 to 8.5), titratable acidity (0.29% to 0.30%), total carotenoid (1774 to 1835 μg/100 mL), phenolic compounds (20.19 to 20.63 μg/mL), ascorbic acid (4.8 mg/100 mL), and color parameters between fresh and ultrasound treated samples at the studied temperatures. To predict the inactivation patterns, observed values were tested using 3 different general models: first-order, Weibull distribution, and biphasic. The Weibull and biphasic models show good correlation for inactivation under all processing conditions. Results show ultrasound in combination with mild temperature could be effectively used to process fresh carrot juice providing a safe product without affecting physicochemical characteristics. The combination of ultrasound and mild temperatures is effective in reducing microbial load in carrot juice to safe levels. This combination would be beneficial in the industrial processing of carrot juice without altering the quality attributes or bioactive compounds. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Residence times and alluvial architecture of a sediment superslug in response to different flow regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

2017-01-01

A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes.Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture—laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated sediment stored in channels or on floodplains, and to provide insight into the interpretation of recent or ancient fluvial deposits.

Modeling the pressure inactivation of Escherichia coli and Salmonella typhimurium in sapote mamey ( Pouteria sapota (Jacq.) H.E. Moore & Stearn) pulp.

PubMed

Saucedo-Reyes, Daniela; Carrillo-Salazar, José A; Román-Padilla, Lizbeth; Saucedo-Veloz, Crescenciano; Reyes-Santamaría, María I; Ramírez-Gilly, Mariana; Tecante, Alberto

2018-03-01

High hydrostatic pressure inactivation kinetics of Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 and Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium ATCC 14028 ( S. typhimurium) in a low acid mamey pulp at four pressure levels (300, 350, 400, and 450 MPa), different exposure times (0-8 min), and temperature of 25 ± 2℃ were obtained. Survival curves showed deviations from linearity in the form of a tail (upward concavity). The primary models tested were the Weibull model, the modified Gompertz equation, and the biphasic model. The Weibull model gave the best goodness of fit ( R 2 adj  > 0.956, root mean square error < 0.290) in the modeling and the lowest Akaike information criterion value. Exponential-logistic and exponential decay models, and Bigelow-type and an empirical models for b'( P) and n( P) parameters, respectively, were tested as alternative secondary models. The process validation considered the two- and one-step nonlinear regressions for making predictions of the survival fraction; both regression types provided an adequate goodness of fit and the one-step nonlinear regression clearly reduced fitting errors. The best candidate model according to the Akaike theory information, with better accuracy and more reliable predictions was the Weibull model integrated by the exponential-logistic and exponential decay secondary models as a function of time and pressure (two-step procedure) or incorporated as one equation (one-step procedure). Both mathematical expressions were used to determine the t d parameter, where the desired reductions ( 5D) (considering d = 5 ( t 5 ) as the criterion of 5 Log 10 reduction (5 D)) in both microorganisms are attainable at 400 MPa for 5.487 ± 0.488 or 5.950 ± 0.329 min, respectively, for the one- or two-step nonlinear procedure.

Fatigue Behavior of Crystalline-Reinforced Glass-Ceramics.

PubMed

Vicari, Carolina Barbosa; Magalhães, Bárbara de Oliveira; Griggs, Jason Alan; Borba, Márcia

2018-01-03

To evaluate the fatigue behavior of two crystalline-reinforced ceramics: leucite-reinforced (VL) and lithium disilicate-based (VD) glass-ceramics. Bar-shaped specimens (16 × 4 × 1.2 mm) were produced for each ceramic using prefabricated CAD/CAM blocks. For each group, 30 specimens were subjected to a three-point flexural strength test in a universal testing machine. For VL and VD, 36 and 41 specimens were subjected to a cyclic fatigue test, respectively. The cyclic fatigue test was performed with a pneumatic mechanical cycling machine (1 Hz; 37°C distilled water). Specimens were tested at two stress levels for each preset lifetime (10 3 and 10 4 cycles for VL; 10 4 and 10 5 cycles for VD) following the boundary technique. Fractography was performed with a scanning electron microscope. Data were analyzed with Weibull analysis. There were significant differences among groups for characteristic strength (σ 0 ) and Weibull modulus (m), as the confidence intervals did not overlap. The VD group presented the highest values of σ 0 , but the lowest Weibull modulus. Both groups showed a reduction of approximately 60% of the initial flexural strength (σ f ) after cycling for 10 4 cycles. For VD tested in fatigue, there was no degradation of σ f when the number of cycles was increased from 10 4 to 10 5 . The VL group showed an 18% decrease in σ f when the number of cycles increased from 10 3 to 10 4 . Flexural strength values estimated for a 5% probability of failure were 36 MPa for VL and 55 MPa for VD, after 10 4 cycles. Both glass-ceramics showed similar strength degradation (60%) after a lifetime of 10 4 cycles, despite their distinct mechanical properties. Mechanical cycling in humid conditions proved to be an important factor for the degradation of the mechanical properties of crystalline-reinforced glass-ceramics. © 2018 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

CRACK GROWTH ANALYSIS OF SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL ELECTROLYTES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. Bandopadhyay; N. Nagabhushana

2003-10-01

Defects and Flaws control the structural and functional property of ceramics. In determining the reliability and lifetime of ceramics structures it is very important to quantify the crack growth behavior of the ceramics. In addition, because of the high variability of the strength and the relatively low toughness of ceramics, a statistical design approach is necessary. The statistical nature of the strength of ceramics is currently well recognized, and is usually accounted for by utilizing Weibull or similar statistical distributions. Design tools such as CARES using a combination of strength measurements, stress analysis, and statistics are available and reasonably wellmore » developed. These design codes also incorporate material data such as elastic constants as well as flaw distributions and time-dependent properties. The fast fracture reliability for ceramics is often different from their time-dependent reliability. Further confounding the design complexity, the time-dependent reliability varies with the environment/temperature/stress combination. Therefore, it becomes important to be able to accurately determine the behavior of ceramics under simulated application conditions to provide a better prediction of the lifetime and reliability for a given component. In the present study, Yttria stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) of 9.6 mol% Yttria composition was procured in the form of tubes of length 100 mm. The composition is of interest as tubular electrolytes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. Rings cut from the tubes were characterized for microstructure, phase stability, mechanical strength (Weibull modulus) and fracture mechanisms. The strength at operating condition of SOFCs (1000 C) decreased to 95 MPa as compared to room temperature strength of 230 MPa. However, the Weibull modulus remains relatively unchanged. Slow crack growth (SCG) parameter, n = 17 evaluated at room temperature in air was representative of well studied brittle materials. Based on the results, further work was planned to evaluate the strength degradation, modulus and failure in more representative environment of the SOFCs.« less

Residence times and alluvial architecture of a sediment superslug in response to different flow regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, John A.

2017-10-01

A superslug was deposited in a basin in the Colorado Front Range Mountains as a consequence of an extreme flood following a wildfire disturbance in 1996. The subsequent evolution of this superslug was measured by repeat topographic surveys (31 surveys from 1996 through 2014) of 18 cross sections approximately uniformly spaced over 1500 m immediately above the basin outlet. These surveys allowed the identification within the superslug of chronostratigraphic units deposited and eroded by different geomorphic processes in response to different flow regimes. Over the time period of the study, the superslug went through aggradation, incision, and stabilization phases that were controlled by a shift in geomorphic processes from generally short-duration, episodic, large-magnitude floods that deposited new chronostratigraphic units to long-duration processes that eroded units. These phases were not contemporaneous at each channel cross section, which resulted in a complex response that preserved different chronostratigraphic units at each channel cross section having, in general, two dominant types of alluvial architecture-laminar and fragmented. Age and transit-time distributions for these two alluvial architectures evolved with time since the extreme flood. Because of the complex shape of the distributions they were best modeled by two-parameter Weibull functions. The Weibull scale parameter approximated the median age of the distributions, and the Weibull shape parameter generally had a linear relation that increased with time since the extreme flood. Additional results indicated that deposition of new chronostratigraphic units can be represented by a power-law frequency distribution, and that the erosion of units decreases with depth of burial to a limiting depth. These relations can be used to model other situations with different flow regimes where vertical aggradation and incision are dominant processes, to predict the residence time of possible contaminated sediment stored in channels or on floodplains, and to provide insight into the interpretation of recent or ancient fluvial deposits.

Experimental and computational correlation of fracture parameters KIc, JIc, and GIc for unimodular and bimodular graphite components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, Awani; Panda, S. K.

2018-05-01

The influence of bimodularity (different stress ∼ strain behaviour in tension and compression) on fracture behaviour of graphite specimens has been studied with fracture toughness (KIc), critical J-integral (JIc) and critical strain energy release rate (GIc) as the characterizing parameter. Bimodularity index (ratio of tensile Young's modulus to compression Young's modulus) of graphite specimens has been obtained from the normalized test data of tensile and compression experimentation. Single edge notch bend (SENB) testing of pre-cracked specimens from the same lot have been carried out as per ASTM standard D7779-11 to determine the peak load and critical fracture parameters KIc, GIc and JIc using digital image correlation technology of crack opening displacements. Weibull weakest link theory has been used to evaluate the mean peak load, Weibull modulus and goodness of fit employing two parameter least square method (LIN2), biased (MLE2-B) and unbiased (MLE2-U) maximum likelihood estimator. The stress dependent elasticity problem of three-dimensional crack progression behaviour for the bimodular graphite components has been solved as an iterative finite element procedure. The crack characterizing parameters critical stress intensity factor and critical strain energy release rate have been estimated with the help of Weibull distribution plot between peak loads versus cumulative probability of failure. Experimental and Computational fracture parameters have been compared qualitatively to describe the significance of bimodularity. The bimodular influence on fracture behaviour of SENB graphite has been reflected on the experimental evaluation of GIc values only, which has been found to be different from the calculated JIc values. Numerical evaluation of bimodular 3D J-integral value is found to be close to the GIc value whereas the unimodular 3D J-value is nearer to the JIc value. The significant difference between the unimodular JIc and bimodular GIc indicates that GIc should be considered as the standard fracture parameter for bimodular brittle specimens.

A micromechanical interpretation of the temperature dependence of Beremin model parameters for french RPV steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieu, Jean-Philippe; Inal, Karim; Berveiller, Sophie; Diard, Olivier

2010-11-01

Local approach to brittle fracture for low-alloyed steels is discussed in this paper. A bibliographical introduction intends to highlight general trends and consensual points of the topic and evokes debatable aspects. French RPV steel 16MND5 (equ. ASTM A508 Cl.3), is then used as a model material to study the influence of temperature on brittle fracture. A micromechanical modelling of brittle fracture at the elementary volume scale already used in previous work is then recalled. It involves a multiscale modelling of microstructural plasticity which has been tuned on experimental inter-phase and inter-granular stresses heterogeneities measurements. Fracture probability of the elementary volume can then be computed using a randomly attributed defect size distribution based on realistic carbides repartition. This defect distribution is then deterministically correlated to stress heterogeneities simulated within the microstructure using a weakest-link hypothesis on the elementary volume, which results in a deterministic stress to fracture. Repeating the process allows to compute Weibull parameters on the elementary volume. This tool is then used to investigate the physical mechanisms that could explain the already experimentally observed temperature dependence of Beremin's parameter for 16MND5 steel. It is showed that, assuming that the hypothesis made in this work about cleavage micro-mechanisms are correct, effective equivalent surface energy (i.e. surface energy plus plastically dissipated energy when blunting the crack tip) for propagating a crack has to be temperature dependent to explain Beremin's parameters temperature evolution.

The comparison of different daidzein-PLGA nanoparticles in increasing its oral bioavailability.

PubMed

Ma, Yiran; Zhao, Xinyi; Li, Jian; Shen, Qi

2012-01-01

The aim of this research was to increase the oral bioavailability of daidzein by the formulations of poly(lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA) nanoparticles loaded with daidzein. Amongst the various traditional and novel techniques of preparing daidzein-loaded PLGA nanoparticles, daidzein-loaded phospholipid complexes PLGA nanoparticles and daidzein-loaded cyclodextrin inclusion complexes PLGA nanoparticles were selected. The average drug entrapment efficiency, particle size, and zeta potential of daidzein-loaded phospholipid complexes PLGA nanoparticles and daidzein-loaded cyclodextrin inclusion complexes PLGA nanoparticles were 81.9% ± 5%, 309.2 ± 14.0 nm, -32.14 ± 2.53 mV and 83.2% ± 7.2%, 323.2 ± 4.8 nm, -18.73 ± 1.68 mV, respectively. The morphological characterization of nanoparticles was observed with scanning electron microscopy by stereological method and the physicochemical state of nanoparticles was valued by differential scanning calorimetry. The in vitro drug-release profile of both nanoparticle formulations fitted the Weibull dynamic equation. Pharmacokinetic studies demonstrated that after oral administration of daidzein-loaded phospholipid complexes PLGA nanoparticles and daidzein-loaded cyclodextrin inclusion complexes PLGA nanoparticles to rats at a dose of 10 mg/kg, relative bioavailability was enhanced about 5.57- and 8.85-fold, respectively, compared to daidzein suspension as control. These results describe an effective strategy for oral delivery of daidzein-loaded PLGA nanoparticles and might provide a fresh approach to enhancing the bioavailability of drugs with poor lipophilic and poor hydrophilic properties.

The comparison of different daidzein-PLGA nanoparticles in increasing its oral bioavailability

PubMed Central

Ma, Yiran; Zhao, Xinyi; Li, Jian; Shen, Qi

2012-01-01

The aim of this research was to increase the oral bioavailability of daidzein by the formulations of poly(lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA) nanoparticles loaded with daidzein. Amongst the various traditional and novel techniques of preparing daidzein-loaded PLGA nanoparticles, daidzein-loaded phospholipid complexes PLGA nanoparticles and daidzein-loaded cyclodextrin inclusion complexes PLGA nanoparticles were selected. The average drug entrapment efficiency, particle size, and zeta potential of daidzein-loaded phospholipid complexes PLGA nanoparticles and daidzein-loaded cyclodextrin inclusion complexes PLGA nanoparticles were 81.9% ± 5%, 309.2 ± 14.0 nm, −32.14 ± 2.53 mV and 83.2% ± 7.2%, 323.2 ± 4.8 nm, −18.73 ± 1.68 mV, respectively. The morphological characterization of nanoparticles was observed with scanning electron microscopy by stereological method and the physicochemical state of nanoparticles was valued by differential scanning calorimetry. The in vitro drug-release profile of both nanoparticle formulations fitted the Weibull dynamic equation. Pharmacokinetic studies demonstrated that after oral administration of daidzein-loaded phospholipid complexes PLGA nanoparticles and daidzein-loaded cyclodextrin inclusion complexes PLGA nanoparticles to rats at a dose of 10 mg/kg, relative bioavailability was enhanced about 5.57- and 8.85-fold, respectively, compared to daidzein suspension as control. These results describe an effective strategy for oral delivery of daidzein-loaded PLGA nanoparticles and might provide a fresh approach to enhancing the bioavailability of drugs with poor lipophilic and poor hydrophilic properties. PMID:22346351

Fitting Cure Rate Model to Breast Cancer Data of Cancer Research Center.

PubMed

Baghestani, Ahmad Reza; Zayeri, Farid; Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil; Shojaee, Leyla; Khadembashi, Naghmeh; Shahmirzalou, Parviz

2015-01-01

The Cox PH model is one of the most significant statistical models in studying survival of patients. But, in the case of patients with long-term survival, it may not be the most appropriate. In such cases, a cure rate model seems more suitable. The purpose of this study was to determine clinical factors associated with cure rate of patients with breast cancer. In order to find factors affecting cure rate (response), a non-mixed cure rate model with negative binomial distribution for latent variable was used. Variables selected were recurrence cancer, status for HER2, estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR), size of tumor, grade of cancer, stage of cancer, type of surgery, age at the diagnosis time and number of removed positive lymph nodes. All analyses were performed using PROC MCMC processes in the SAS 9.2 program. The mean (SD) age of patients was equal to 48.9 (11.1) months. For these patients, 1, 5 and 10-year survival rates were 95, 79 and 50 percent respectively. All of the mentioned variables were effective in cure fraction. Kaplan-Meier curve showed cure model's use competence. Unlike other variables, existence of ER and PR positivity will increase probability of cure in patients. In the present study, Weibull distribution was used for the purpose of analysing survival times. Model fitness with other distributions such as log-N and log-logistic and other distributions for latent variable is recommended.

Some Aspects of the Failure Mechanisms in BaTiO3-Based Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, David Donhang; Sampson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The objective of this presentation is to gain insight into possible failure mechanisms in BaTiO3-based ceramic capacitors that may be associated with the reliability degradation that accompanies a reduction in dielectric thickness, as reported by Intel Corporation in 2010. The volumetric efficiency (microF/cm3) of a multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) has been shown to not increase limitlessly due to the grain size effect on the dielectric constant of ferroelectric ceramic BaTiO3 material. The reliability of an MLCC has been discussed with respect to its structure. The MLCCs with higher numbers of dielectric layers will pose more challenges for the reliability of dielectric material, which is the case for most base-metal-electrode (BME) capacitors. A number of MLCCs manufactured using both precious-metal-electrode (PME) and BME technology, with 25 V rating and various chip sizes and capacitances, were tested at accelerated stress levels. Most of these MLCCs had a failure behavior with two mixed failure modes: the well-known rapid dielectric wearout, and so-called 'early failures." The two failure modes can be distinguished when the testing data were presented and normalized at use-level using a 2-parameter Weibull plot. The early failures had a slope parameter of Beta >1, indicating that the early failures are not infant mortalities. Early failures are triggered due to external electrical overstress and become dominant as dielectric layer thickness decreases, accompanied by a dramatic reduction in reliability. This indicates that early failures are the main cause of the reliability degradation in MLCCs as dielectric layer thickness decreases. All of the early failures are characterized by an avalanche-like breakdown leakage current. The failures have been attributed to the extrinsic minor construction defects introduced during fabrication of the capacitors. A reliability model including dielectric thickness and extrinsic defect feature size is proposed in this presentation. The model can be used to explain the Intel-reported reliability degradation in MLCCs with respect to the reduction of dielectric thickness. It can also be used to estimate the reliability of a MLCC based on its construction and microstructure parameters such as dielectric thickness, average grain size, and number of dielectric layers. Measures for preventing early failures are also discussed in this document.

Application of the weibull distribution function to the molecular weight distribution of cellulose

Treesearch

A. Broido; Hsiukang Yow

1977-01-01

The molecular weight distribution of a linear homologous polymer is usually obtained empirically for any particular sample. Sample-to-sample comparisons are made in terms of the weight- or number-average molecular weights and graphic displays of the distribution curves. Such treatment generally precludes data interpretations in which a distribution can be described in...

Research reports: 1985 NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, G. R. (Editor); Osborn, T. L. (Editor); Dozier, J. B. (Editor); Freeman, L. M. (Editor)

1986-01-01

A compilation of 40 technical reports on research conducted by participants in the 1985 NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is given. Weibull density functions, reliability analysis, directional solidification, space stations, jet stream, fracture mechanics, composite materials, orbital maneuvering vehicles, stellar winds and gamma ray bursts are among the topics discussed.

Sol-gel derived bioactive coating on zirconia: Effect on flexural strength and cell proliferation.

PubMed

Shahramian, Khalil; Leminen, Heidi; Meretoja, Ville; Linderbäck, Paula; Kangasniemi, Ilkka; Lassila, Lippo; Abdulmajeed, Aous; Närhi, Timo

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of sol-gel derived bioactive coatings on the biaxial flexural strength and fibroblast proliferation of zirconia, aimed to be used as an implant abutment material. Yttrium stabilized zirconia disc-shaped specimens were cut, ground, sintered, and finally cleansed ultrasonically in each of acetone and ethanol for 5 minutes. Three experimental groups (n = 15) were fabricated, zirconia with sol-gel derived titania (TiO 2 ) coating, zirconia with sol-gel derived zirconia (ZrO 2 ) coating, and non-coated zirconia as a control. The surfaces of the specimens were analyzed through images taken using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), and a non-contact tapping mode atomic force microscope (AFM) was used to record the surface topography and roughness of the coated specimens. Biaxial flexural strength values were determined using the piston-on-three ball technique. Human gingival fibroblast proliferation on the surface of the specimens was evaluated using AlamarBlue assay™. Data were analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's post-hoc test. Additionally, the biaxial flexural strength data was also statistically analyzed with the Weibull distribution. The biaxial flexural strength of zirconia specimens was unaffected (p > 0.05). Weibull modulus of TiO 2 coated and ZrO 2 coated groups (5.7 and 5.4, respectively) were lower than the control (8.0). Specimens coated with ZrO 2 showed significantly lower fibroblast proliferation compared to other groups (p < 0.05). In conclusion, sol-gel derived coatings have no influence on the flexural strength of zirconia. ZrO 2 coated specimens showed significantly lower cell proliferation after 12 days than TiO 2 coated or non-coated control. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 105B: 2401-2407, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cautions regarding the fitting and interpretation of survival curves: examples from NICE single technology appraisals of drugs for cancer.

PubMed

Connock, Martin; Hyde, Chris; Moore, David

2011-10-01

The UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has used its Single Technology Appraisal (STA) programme to assess several drugs for cancer. Typically, the evidence submitted by the manufacturer comes from one short-term randomized controlled trial (RCT) demonstrating improvement in overall survival and/or in delay of disease progression, and these are the pre-eminent drivers of cost effectiveness. We draw attention to key issues encountered in assessing the quality and rigour of the manufacturers' modelling of overall survival and disease progression. Our examples are two recent STAs: sorafenib (Nexavar®) for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, and azacitidine (Vidaza®) for higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). The choice of parametric model had a large effect on the predicted treatment-dependent survival gain. Logarithmic models (log-Normal and log-logistic) delivered double the survival advantage that was derived from Weibull models. Both submissions selected the logarithmic fits for their base-case economic analyses and justified selection solely on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) scores. AIC scores in the azacitidine submission failed to match the choice of the log-logistic over Weibull or exponential models, and the modelled survival in the intervention arm lacked face validity. AIC scores for sorafenib models favoured log-Normal fits; however, since there is no statistical method for comparing AIC scores, and differences may be trivial, it is generally advised that the plausibility of competing models should be tested against external data and explored in diagnostic plots. Function fitting to observed data should not be a mechanical process validated by a single crude indicator (AIC). Projective models should show clear plausibility for the patients concerned and should be consistent with other published information. Multiple rather than single parametric functions should be explored and tested with diagnostic plots. When trials have survival curves with long tails exhibiting few events then the robustness of extrapolations using information in such tails should be tested.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Comparison of Thermal and Non-Thermal Processing of Swine Feed and the Use of Selected Feed Additives on Inactivation of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV)

PubMed Central

Trudeau, Michaela P.; Verma, Harsha; Sampedro, Fernando; Urriola, Pedro E.; Shurson, Gerald C.; McKelvey, Jessica; Pillai, Suresh D.; Goyal, Sagar M.

2016-01-01

Infection with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes diarrhea, vomiting, and high mortality in suckling pigs. Contaminated feed has been suggested as a vehicle of transmission for PEDV. The objective of this study was to compare thermal and electron beam processing, and the inclusion of feed additives on the inactivation of PEDV in feed. Feed samples were spiked with PEDV and then heated to 120–145°C for up to 30 min or irradiated at 0–50 kGy. Another set of feed samples spiked with PEDV and mixed with Ultracid P (Nutriad), Activate DA (Novus International), KEM-GEST (Kemin Agrifood), Acid Booster (Agri-Nutrition), sugar or salt was incubated at room temperature (~25°C) for up to 21 days. At the end of incubation, the virus titers were determined by inoculation of Vero-81 cells and the virus inactivation kinetics were modeled using the Weibull distribution model. The Weibull kinetic parameter delta represented the time or eBeam dose required to reduce virus concentration by 1 log. For thermal processing, delta values ranged from 16.52 min at 120°C to 1.30 min at 145°C. For eBeam processing, a target dose of 50 kGy reduced PEDV concentration by 3 log. All additives tested were effective in reducing the survival of PEDV when compared with the control sample (delta = 17.23 days). Activate DA (0.81) and KEM-GEST (3.28) produced the fastest inactivation. In conclusion, heating swine feed at temperatures over 130°C or eBeam processing of feed with a dose over 50 kGy are effective processing steps to reduce PEDV survival. Additionally, the inclusion of selected additives can decrease PEDV survivability. PMID:27341670

C. botulinum inactivation kinetics implemented in a computational model of a high-pressure sterilization process.

PubMed

Juliano, Pablo; Knoerzer, Kai; Fryer, Peter J; Versteeg, Cornelis

2009-01-01

High-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) processing is effective for microbial spore inactivation using mild preheating, followed by rapid volumetric compression heating and cooling on pressure release, enabling much shorter processing times than conventional thermal processing for many food products. A computational thermal fluid dynamic (CTFD) model has been developed to model all processing steps, including the vertical pressure vessel, an internal polymeric carrier, and food packages in an axis-symmetric geometry. Heat transfer and fluid dynamic equations were coupled to four selected kinetic models for the inactivation of C. botulinum; the traditional first-order kinetic model, the Weibull model, an nth-order model, and a combined discrete log-linear nth-order model. The models were solved to compare the resulting microbial inactivation distributions. The initial temperature of the system was set to 90 degrees C and pressure was selected at 600 MPa, holding for 220 s, with a target temperature of 121 degrees C. A representation of the extent of microbial inactivation throughout all processing steps was obtained for each microbial model. Comparison of the models showed that the conventional thermal processing kinetics (not accounting for pressure) required shorter holding times to achieve a 12D reduction of C. botulinum spores than the other models. The temperature distribution inside the vessel resulted in a more uniform inactivation distribution when using a Weibull or an nth-order kinetics model than when using log-linear kinetics. The CTFD platform could illustrate the inactivation extent and uniformity provided by the microbial models. The platform is expected to be useful to evaluate models fitted into new C. botulinum inactivation data at varying conditions of pressure and temperature, as an aid for regulatory filing of the technology as well as in process and equipment design.

Exploring factors related to metastasis free survival in breast cancer patients using Bayesian cure models.

PubMed

Jafari-Koshki, Tohid; Mansourian, Marjan; Mokarian, Fariborz

2014-01-01

Breast cancer is a fatal disease and the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women with an increasing pattern worldwide. The burden is mostly attributed to metastatic cancers that occur in one-third of patients and the treatments are palliative. It is of great interest to determine factors affecting time from cancer diagnosis to secondary metastasis. Cure rate models assume a Poisson distribution for the number of unobservable metastatic-component cells that are completely deleted from the non-metastasis patient body but some may remain and result in metastasis. Time to metastasis is defined as a function of the number of these cells and the time for each cell to develop a detectable sign of metastasis. Covariates are introduced to the model via the rate of metastatic-component cells. We used non-mixture cure rate models with Weibull and log-logistic distributions in a Bayesian setting to assess the relationship between metastasis free survival and covariates. The median of metastasis free survival was 76.9 months. Various models showed that from covariates in the study, lymph node involvement ratio and being progesterone receptor positive were significant, with an adverse and a beneficial effect on metastasis free survival, respectively. The estimated fraction of patients cured from metastasis was almost 48%. The Weibull model had a slightly better performance than log-logistic. Cure rate models are popular in survival studies and outperform other models under certain conditions. We explored the prognostic factors of metastatic breast cancer from a different viewpoint. In this study, metastasis sites were analyzed all together. Conducting similar studies in a larger sample of cancer patients as well as evaluating the prognostic value of covariates in metastasis to each site separately are recommended.

Inactivation kinetics of Vibrio vulnificus in phosphate-buffered saline at different freezing and storage temperatures and times.

PubMed

Seminario, Diana M; Balaban, Murat O; Rodrick, Gary

2011-03-01

Vibrio vulnificus (Vv) is a pathogen that can be found in raw oysters. Freezing can reduce Vv and increase the shelf life of oysters. The objective of this study was to develop predictive inactivation kinetic models for pure cultures of Vv at different frozen storage temperatures and times. Vv was diluted in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) to obtain about 10(7) CFU/mL. Samples were frozen at -10, -35, and -80 °C (different freezing rates), and stored at different temperatures. Survival of Vv was followed after freezing and storage at -10 °C (0, 3, 6, and 9 d) and at -35 and -80 °C (every week for 6 wk). For every treatment, time-temperature data was obtained using thermocouples in blank vials. Predictive models were developed using first-order, Weibull and Peleg inactivation kinetics. Different freezing temperatures did not significantly (α = 0.05) affect survival of Vv immediately after freezing. The combined effect of freezing and 1 wk frozen storage resulted in 1.5, 2.6, and 4.9 log10 reductions for samples stored at -80, -35, and -10 °C, respectively. Storage temperature was the critical parameter in survival of Vv. A modified Weibull model successfully predicted Vv survival during frozen storage: log10 Nt = log 10No - 1.22 - ([t/10{-1.163-0.0466T}][0.00025T(2) + 0.049325]). N(o) and N(t) are initial and time t (d) survival counts, T is frozen storage temperature, Celsius degree. Vibrio vulnificus can be inactivated by freezing. Models to predict survival of V. vulnificus at different freezing temperatures and times were developed. This is the first step towards the prediction of V. vulnificus related safety of frozen oysters.

Crystallization of high-strength nano-scale leucite glass-ceramics.

PubMed

Theocharopoulos, A; Chen, X; Wilson, R M; Hill, R; Cattell, M J

2013-11-01

Fine-grained, high strength, translucent leucite dental glass-ceramics are synthesized via controlled crystallization of finely milled glass powders. The objectives of this study were to utilize high speed planetary milling of an aluminosilicate glass for controlled surface crystallization of nano-scale leucite glass-ceramics and to test the biaxial flexural strength. An aluminosilicate glass was synthesized, attritor or planetary milled and heat-treated. Glasses and glass-ceramics were characterized using particle size analysis, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. Experimental (fine and nanoscale) and commercial (Ceramco-3, IPS Empress Esthetic) leucite glass-ceramics were tested using the biaxial flexural strength (BFS) test. Gaussian and Weibull statistics were applied. Experimental planetary milled glass-ceramics showed an increased leucite crystal number and nano-scale median crystal sizes (0.048-0.055 μm(2)) as a result of glass particle size reduction and heat treatments. Experimental materials had significantly (p<0.05) higher mean BFS and characteristic strength values than the commercial materials. Attritor milled and planetary milled (2h) materials showed no significant (p>0.05) strength difference. All other groups' mean BFS and characteristic strengths were found to be significantly different (p<0.05) to each other. The mean (SD) MPa strengths measured were: Attritor milled: 252.4 (38.7), Planetary milled: 225.4 (41.8) [4h milling] 255.0 (35.0) [2h milling], Ceramco-3: 75.7 (6.8) and IPS Empress: 165.5 (30.6). Planetary milling enabled synthesis of nano-scale leucite glass-ceramics with high flexural strength. These materials may help to reduce problems associated with brittle fracture of all-ceramic restorations and give reduced enamel wear. Copyright © 2013 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drug release from slabs and the effects of surface roughness.

PubMed

Kalosakas, George; Martini, Dimitra

2015-12-30

We discuss diffusion-controlled drug release from slabs or thin films. Analytical and numerical results are presented for slabs with flat surfaces, having a uniform thickness. Then, considering slabs with rough surfaces, the influence of a non-uniform slab thickness on release kinetics is numerically investigated. The numerical release profiles are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations. Release kinetics is quantified through the stretched exponential (or Weibull) function and the resulting dependence of the two parameters of this function on the thickness of the slab, for flat surfaces, and the amplitude of surface fluctuations (or the degree of thickness variability) in case of roughness. We find that a higher surface roughness leads to a faster drug release. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic method to establish the reliability of carbon-carbon rocket motor nozzles. Volume 3: Stress and reliability analysis of layered composite cylinders under thermal shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heller, R. A.; Thangjitham, S.; Wang, X.

1992-04-01

The state of stress in a cylindrical structure consisting of multiple layers of carbon-carbon composite and subjected to thermal and pressure shock are analyzed using an elasticity approach. The reliability of the structure based on the weakest link concept and the Weibull distribution is also calculated. Coupled thermo-elasticity is first assumed and is shown to be unnecessary for the material considered. The effects of external and internal thermal shock as well as a superimposed pressure shock are examined. It is shown that for the geometry chosen, the structure may fail when exposed to thermal shock alone while a superimposed pressure shock can mitigate the probability of failure.

Contributions of stress corrosion and cyclic fatigue to subcritical crack growth in a dental glass-ceramic.

PubMed

Joshi, Gaurav V; Duan, Yuanyuan; Della Bona, Alvaro; Hill, Thomas J; St John, Kenneth; Griggs, Jason A

2014-08-01

The objective of this study was to test the following hypotheses: (1) both cyclic degradation and stress-corrosion mechanisms result in subcritical crack growth (SCG) in a fluorapatite glass-ceramic (IPS e.max ZirPress, Ivoclar-Vivadent) and (2) there is an interactive effect of stress corrosion and cyclic fatigue to accelerate subcritical crack growth. Rectangular beam specimens were fabricated using the lost-wax process. Two groups of specimens (N=30/group) with polished (15μm) or air-abraded surface were tested under rapid monotonic loading. Additional polished specimens were subjected to cyclic loading at two frequencies, 2Hz (N=44) and 10Hz (N=36), and at various stress amplitudes. All tests were performed using a fully articulated four-point flexure fixture in deionized water at 37°C. The SCG parameters were determined using the ratio of inert strength Weibull modulus to lifetime Weibull modulus. A general log-linear model was fit to the fatigue lifetime data including time to failure, frequency, peak stress, and the product of frequency and logarithm of stress in ALTA PRO software. SCG parameters determined were n=21.7 and A=4.99×10(-5) for 2Hz, and n=19.1 and A=7.39×10(-6) for 10Hz. After fitting the general log-linear model to cyclic fatigue data, the coefficients of the frequency term (α1), the stress term (α2), and the interaction term (α3) had estimates and 95% confidence intervals of α1=-3.16 (-15.1, 6.30), α2=-21.2 (-34.9, -9.73), and α3=0.820 (-1.59, 4.02). Only α2 was significantly different from zero. (1) Cyclic fatigue does not have a significant effect on SCG in the fluorapatite glass-ceramic evaluated and (2) there was no interactive effect between cyclic degradation and stress corrosion for this material. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

A New Lifetime Distribution with Bathtube and Unimodal Hazard Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriga, Gladys D. C.; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; Cancho, Vicente G.

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which accommodate bathtub-shaped, unimodal, increasing and decreasing hazard function. Some special particular cases are derived, including the standard Weibull distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered for estimate the tree parameters present in the model. The methodology is illustrated in a real data set on industrial devices on a lite test.

The AFIS tree growth model for updating annual forest inventories in Minnesota

Treesearch

Margaret R. Holdaway

2000-01-01

As the Forest Service moves towards annual inventories, states may use model predictions of growth to update unmeasured plots. A tree growth model (AFIS) based on the scaled Weibull function and using the average-adjusted model form is presented. Annual diameter growth for four species was modeled using undisturbed plots from Minnesota's Aspen-Birch and Northern...

Fire history in the ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests on the east slope of the Washington Cascades.

Treesearch

Richard L. Everett; Richard Schellhaas; Dave Keenum

2000-01-01

We collected 490 and 233 fire scars on two ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)/Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) dominated landscapes on the east slope of the Washington Cascades that contained a record of 3901 and 2309 cross-dated fire events. During the pre-settlement period (1700/1750±1860), the Weibull median fire-free...

Confidence intervals for predicting lumber strength properties based on ratios of percentiles from two Weibull populations.

Treesearch

Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

2003-01-01

Ratios of strength properties of lumber are commonly used to calculate property values for standards. Although originally proposed in terms of means, ratios are being applied without regard to position in the distribution. It is now known that lumber strength properties are generally not normally distributed. Therefore, nonparametric methods are often used to derive...

Approximation of the breast height diameter distribution of two-cohort stands by mixture models I Parameter estimation

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis A. Roesch

2013-01-01

Study assessed the usefulness of various methods for choosing the initial values for the numerical procedures for estimating the parameters of mixture distributions and analysed variety of mixture models to approximate empirical diameter at breast height (dbh) distributions. Two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution were...

Equations for estimating loblolly pine branch and foliage weight and surface area distributions

Treesearch

V. Clark Baldwin; Kelly D. Peterson; Harold E. Burkhatt; Ralph L. Amateis; Phillip M. Dougherty

1996-01-01

Equations to predict foliage weight and surface area, and their vertical and horizontal distributions, within the crowns of unthinned loblolly pine (Pinus tueduL.) trees are presented. A right-truncated Weibull function was used for describing vertical foliage distributions. This function ensures that all of the foliage located between the tree tip and the foliage base...

Multi-objective and Perishable Fuzzy Inventory Models Having Weibull Life-time With Time Dependent Demand, Demand Dependent Production and Time Varying Holding Cost: A Possibility/Necessity Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, Savita; Mondal, Seema Sarkar

2010-10-01

A multi-objective inventory model of deteriorating item has been developed with Weibull rate of decay, time dependent demand, demand dependent production, time varying holding cost allowing shortages in fuzzy environments for non- integrated and integrated businesses. Here objective is to maximize the profit from different deteriorating items with space constraint. The impreciseness of inventory parameters and goals for non-integrated business has been expressed by linear membership functions. The compromised solutions are obtained by different fuzzy optimization methods. To incorporate the relative importance of the objectives, the different cardinal weights crisp/fuzzy have been assigned. The models are illustrated with numerical examples and results of models with crisp/fuzzy weights are compared. The result for the model assuming them to be integrated business is obtained by using Generalized Reduced Gradient Method (GRG). The fuzzy integrated model with imprecise inventory cost is formulated to optimize the possibility necessity measure of fuzzy goal of the objective function by using credibility measure of fuzzy event by taking fuzzy expectation. The results of crisp/fuzzy integrated model are illustrated with numerical examples and results are compared.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erin V.

2007-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Tensile bond strength of filled and unfilled adhesives to dentin.

PubMed

Braga, R R; Cesar, P F; Gonzaga, C C

2000-04-01

To determine the tensile bond strength of three filled and two unfilled adhesives applied to bovine dentin. Fragments of the labial dentin of bovine incisors were embedded in PVC cylinders with self-cure acrylic resin, and ground flat using 200 grit and 600 grit sandpaper. The following adhesive systems were tested (n=10): Prime & Bond NT, Prime & Bond NT dual cure, Prime & Bond 2.1, OptiBond Solo and Single Bond. A 3 mm-diameter bonding surface was delimited using a perforated adhesive tape. After etching with 37% phosphoric acid and adhesive application, a resin-based composite truncated cone (TPH, shade A3) was built. Tensile test was performed after 24 hrs storage in distilled water at 37 degrees C. Failure mode was accessed using a x10 magnification stereomicroscope. Weibull statistical analysis revealed significant differences in the characteristic strength between Single Bond and Prime & Bond NT dual cure, and between Single Bond and Prime & Bond 2.1. The Weibull parameter (m) was statistically similar among the five groups. Single Bond and Prime & Bond NT showed areas of dentin cohesive failure in most of the specimens. For OptiBond Solo, Prime & Bond NT dual cure and Prime & Bond 2.1 failure was predominantly adhesive.

Estimating Tree Height-Diameter Models with the Bayesian Method

PubMed Central

Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the “best” model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2. PMID:24711733

Estimating tree height-diameter models with the Bayesian method.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiongqing; Duan, Aiguo; Zhang, Jianguo; Xiang, Congwei

2014-01-01

Six candidate height-diameter models were used to analyze the height-diameter relationships. The common methods for estimating the height-diameter models have taken the classical (frequentist) approach based on the frequency interpretation of probability, for example, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) and the maximum likelihood method (ML). The Bayesian method has an exclusive advantage compared with classical method that the parameters to be estimated are regarded as random variables. In this study, the classical and Bayesian methods were used to estimate six height-diameter models, respectively. Both the classical method and Bayesian method showed that the Weibull model was the "best" model using data1. In addition, based on the Weibull model, data2 was used for comparing Bayesian method with informative priors with uninformative priors and classical method. The results showed that the improvement in prediction accuracy with Bayesian method led to narrower confidence bands of predicted value in comparison to that for the classical method, and the credible bands of parameters with informative priors were also narrower than uninformative priors and classical method. The estimated posterior distributions for parameters can be set as new priors in estimating the parameters using data2.

The Wind Energy Potential of Kurdistan, Iran

PubMed Central

Arefi, Farzad; Moshtagh, Jamal; Moradi, Mohammad

2014-01-01

In the current work by using statistical methods and available software, the wind energy assessment of prone regions for installation of wind turbines in, Qorveh, has been investigated. Information was obtained from weather stations of Baneh, Bijar, Zarina, Saqez, Sanandaj, Qorveh, and Marivan. The monthly average and maximum of wind speed were investigated between the years 2000–2010 and the related curves were drawn. The Golobad curve (direction and percentage of dominant wind and calm wind as monthly rate) between the years 1997–2000 was analyzed and drawn with plot software. The ten-minute speed (at 10, 30, and 60 m height) and direction (at 37.5 and 10 m height) wind data were collected from weather stations of Iranian new energy organization. The wind speed distribution during one year was evaluated by using Weibull probability density function (two-parametrical), and the Weibull curve histograms were drawn by MATLAB software. According to the average wind speed of stations and technical specifications of the types of turbines, the suitable wind turbine for the station was selected. Finally, the Divandareh and Qorveh sites with favorable potential were considered for installation of wind turbines and construction of wind farms. PMID:27355042

An overview of engineering concepts and current design algorithms for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, S. F.; Hu, J.; Hopkins, D. A.

1995-01-01

The article begins by examining the fundamentals of traditional deterministic design philosophy. The initial section outlines the concepts of failure criteria and limit state functions two traditional notions that are embedded in deterministic design philosophy. This is followed by a discussion regarding safety factors (a possible limit state function) and the common utilization of statistical concepts in deterministic engineering design approaches. Next the fundamental aspects of a probabilistic failure analysis are explored and it is shown that deterministic design concepts mentioned in the initial portion of the article are embedded in probabilistic design methods. For components fabricated from ceramic materials (and other similarly brittle materials) the probabilistic design approach yields the widely used Weibull analysis after suitable assumptions are incorporated. The authors point out that Weibull analysis provides the rare instance where closed form solutions are available for a probabilistic failure analysis. Since numerical methods are usually required to evaluate component reliabilities, a section on Monte Carlo methods is included to introduce the concept. The article concludes with a presentation of the technical aspects that support the numerical method known as fast probability integration (FPI). This includes a discussion of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler approximations.

Hierarchical statistical modeling of xylem vulnerability to cavitation.

PubMed

Ogle, Kiona; Barber, Jarrett J; Willson, Cynthia; Thompson, Brenda

2009-01-01

Cavitation of xylem elements diminishes the water transport capacity of plants, and quantifying xylem vulnerability to cavitation is important to understanding plant function. Current approaches to analyzing hydraulic conductivity (K) data to infer vulnerability to cavitation suffer from problems such as the use of potentially unrealistic vulnerability curves, difficulty interpreting parameters in these curves, a statistical framework that ignores sampling design, and an overly simplistic view of uncertainty. This study illustrates how two common curves (exponential-sigmoid and Weibull) can be reparameterized in terms of meaningful parameters: maximum conductivity (k(sat)), water potential (-P) at which percentage loss of conductivity (PLC) =X% (P(X)), and the slope of the PLC curve at P(X) (S(X)), a 'sensitivity' index. We provide a hierarchical Bayesian method for fitting the reparameterized curves to K(H) data. We illustrate the method using data for roots and stems of two populations of Juniperus scopulorum and test for differences in k(sat), P(X), and S(X) between different groups. Two important results emerge from this study. First, the Weibull model is preferred because it produces biologically realistic estimates of PLC near P = 0 MPa. Second, stochastic embolisms contribute an important source of uncertainty that should be included in such analyses.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Predicting Numbers of Problems in Development of Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonds, Charles H.

2005-01-01

A method has been formulated to enable prediction of the amount of work that remains to be performed in developing flight software for a spacecraft. The basic concept embodied in the method is that of using an idealized curve (specifically, the Weibull function) to interpolate from (1) the numbers of problems discovered thus far to (2) a goal of discovering no new problems after launch (or six months into the future for software already in use in orbit). The steps of the method can be summarized as follows: 1. Take raw data in the form of problem reports (PRs), including the dates on which they are generated. 2. Remove, from the data collection, PRs that are subsequently withdrawn or to which no response is required. 3. Count the numbers of PRs created in 1-week periods and the running total number of PRs each week. 4. Perform the interpolation by making a least-squares fit of the Weibull function to (a) the cumulative distribution of PRs gathered thus far and (b) the goal of no more PRs after the currently anticipated launch date. The interpolation and the anticipated launch date are subject to iterative re-estimation.

Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

2017-12-01

Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

Failure statistics for commercial lithium ion batteries: A study of 24 pouch cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Stephen J.; Harris, David J.; Li, Chen

2017-02-01

There are relatively few publications that assess capacity decline in enough commercial cells to quantify cell-to-cell variation, but those that do show a surprisingly wide variability. Capacity curves cross each other often, a challenge for efforts to measure the state of health and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual cells. We analyze capacity fade statistics for 24 commercial pouch cells, providing an estimate for the time to 5% failure. Our data indicate that RUL predictions based on remaining capacity or internal resistance are accurate only once the cells have already sorted themselves into "better" and "worse" ones. Analysis of our failure data, using maximum likelihood techniques, provide uniformly good fits for a variety of definitions of failure with normal and with 2- and 3-parameter Weibull probability density functions, but we argue against using a 3-parameter Weibull function for our data. pdf fitting parameters appear to converge after about 15 failures, although business objectives should ultimately determine whether data from a given number of batteries provides sufficient confidence to end lifecycle testing. Increased efforts to make batteries with more consistent lifetimes should lead to improvements in battery cost and safety.

Development of a subway operation incident delay model using accelerated failure time approaches.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Zheng, Yang; Yan, Xuedong; Meng, Qiang

2014-12-01

This study aims to develop a subway operational incident delay model using the parametric accelerated time failure (AFT) approach. Six parametric AFT models including the log-logistic, lognormal and Weibull models, with fixed and random parameters are built based on the Hong Kong subway operation incident data from 2005 to 2012, respectively. In addition, the Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity is also considered to compare the model performance. The goodness-of-fit test results show that the log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is most suitable for estimating the subway incident delay. First, the results show that a longer subway operation incident delay is highly correlated with the following factors: power cable failure, signal cable failure, turnout communication disruption and crashes involving a casualty. Vehicle failure makes the least impact on the increment of subway operation incident delay. According to these results, several possible measures, such as the use of short-distance and wireless communication technology (e.g., Wifi and Zigbee) are suggested to shorten the delay caused by subway operation incidents. Finally, the temporal transferability test results show that the developed log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is stable over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent breakdown of fiber networks: Uncertainty of lifetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsson, Amanda; Uesaka, Tetsu

2017-05-01

Materials often fail when subjected to stresses over a prolonged period. The time to failure, also called the lifetime, is known to exhibit large variability of many materials, particularly brittle and quasibrittle materials. For example, a coefficient of variation reaches 100% or even more. Its distribution shape is highly skewed toward zero lifetime, implying a large number of premature failures. This behavior contrasts with that of normal strength, which shows a variation of only 4%-10% and a nearly bell-shaped distribution. The fundamental cause of this large and unique variability of lifetime is not well understood because of the complex interplay between stochastic processes taking place on the molecular level and the hierarchical and disordered structure of the material. We have constructed fiber network models, both regular and random, as a paradigm for general material structures. With such networks, we have performed Monte Carlo simulations of creep failure to establish explicit relationships among fiber characteristics, network structures, system size, and lifetime distribution. We found that fiber characteristics have large, sometimes dominating, influences on the lifetime variability of a network. Among the factors investigated, geometrical disorders of the network were found to be essential to explain the large variability and highly skewed shape of the lifetime distribution. With increasing network size, the distribution asymptotically approaches a double-exponential form. The implication of this result is that, so-called "infant mortality," which is often predicted by the Weibull approximation of the lifetime distribution, may not exist for a large system.

A novel glycyrrhetinic acid-modified oxaliplatin liposome for liver-targeting and in vitro/vivo evaluation

PubMed Central

Chen, Jingde; Jiang, Hong; Wu, Yin; Li, Yandong; Gao, Yong

2015-01-01

In this study, oxaliplatin (OX) liposomes surface-modified with glycyrrhetinic acid (GA) were developed by the film-dispersion method. Their morphology, physical and chemical properties, and in vitro release performance were investigated. The transmission electron microscope (TEM) image showed that most liposomes were spherical particles with similar size and uniform dispersion. Both OX-liposomes and GA-OX-liposomes had an average size of 90 nm. They were negatively charged, with zeta potentials of −20.6 and −21.3 mV, respectively, and the entrapment efficiency values of both were higher than 94%. In vitro data showed that the application of liposomes could prolong the OX release. The relatively high correlation coefficient values obtained from analyzing the amount of drug released versus the square root of time depicted that release followed the Weibull model. No significant changes were observed after the addition of GA to the liposomes. In vivo, the relatively long time to reach the maximum plasma concentration of OX-liposomes suggested a sustained-release profile of liposomes, which was consistent with the results of the in vitro release study. The increased area under the curve and maximum plasma concentration of OX-liposomes and GA-OX-liposomes demonstrated an increased absorption. The drug concentration in tissues indicated that the GA-modified liposomes delivered OX mainly to liver after intravenous administration. In addition, no severe signs, such as appearance of epithelial necrosis or sloughing of epithelial cells, were detected in histology studies. PMID:25945038

Evolution of Self-Organization in Adiabatic Shear Bands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Marc A.; Xue, Qing; Nesterenko, Vitali F.

2001-06-01

The evolution of multiple adiabatic shear bands was investigated in stainless steel, an Fe-15%Cr-15% Ni alloy, titanium, and Ti-6%Al-4%V alloy through the radial collapse of a thick-walled cylinder under high-strain-rate deformation ( 10^4 s-1). The shear-band initiation, propagation, as well as spatial distribution were examined under different global strains(varied from 0 to 0.9). The shear-band spacing is compared with one-dimensional theoretical predictions based on perturbation (Ockendon- Wright and Molinari) and momentum diffusion (Grady-Kipp). The experimentally observed spacing reveals the two-dimensional character of self-organization. These aspects are incorporated into a novel analytical description, in which a distribution of embryos(potential initiation sites) is activated as a function of strain (greater than a threshold) accoding to a Weibull-type distribution. The model incorporates embryo disactivation by stress shielding as well as selective growth of shear bands. The imposed strain rate, embryo distribution, and rates of initiation and propagation determine the evolutionary shear band configurations. The microstructural parameter investigated for stainless steel was the grain size, that was varied from 30 and 500 um. The influence of grain size was found to be minor and through the flow stress. Titanium and Ti-6%Al-4%V displayed drastically different patterns of shear bands,which are explained in terms of the model proposed. Research Supported by US Army Research Office MURI Program (Contract DAAH 04-96-1-0376).

The effect of stimulants and their combined use with cigarettes on mortality: the case of betel quid.

PubMed

Keng, Shao-Hsun; Sheu, Sheng-Jang

2013-08-01

Ten percent of the world's population use betel quid, making betel quid the fourth most used substance in the world. In Taiwan, there are an estimated 1.5 million users and the majority of them are also smokers. The number of people who died from oral cancer rose more than five times over the period from 1987 to 2006. In this study, we employ propensity score matching and the Weibull hazard model with instrumental variables to examine the health effects of betel quid chewing, in particular the health effect of its combined use with cigarettes. We show that betel quid chewing and smoking have a significant negative effect on health, and that the 10-year death hazard for joint users of betel quid and cigarettes doubles that for abstainers. Moreover, betel quid chewing is as harmful to health as smoking. We also find that betel quid chewing and smoking significantly increase the odds of dying from oral and oesophagus cancers.

Twentieth century demographic changes in cirio and cardón in Baja California, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bullock, Stephen H.; Martijena, Nora E.; Webb, Robert H.; Turner, Raymond M.

2005-01-01

Aim  Our purpose was to discern long-term large-scale patterns of survivorship and recruitment of two dominant, charismatic and useful desert plants, cirio [Fouquieriaceae; Fouquieria columnaris (Kell.) Kell. ex Curran] and cardón [Cactaceae; Pachycereus pringlei(S.Watson) Britton & Rose], and to evaluate the effects of physical and human factors. Location  The study included 77 sites distributed over c. 13,200 km2 in the northern Vizcaíno Region of the Sonoran Desert, state of Baja California, México. Method  Censuses used identified individuals (n = 3780 cirio and 2246 cardón) and were based on repeat photography. Time intervals between censuses ranged from 29 to 96 years, ending in 1996–2002. Earlier repetition (1963) of old photographs at 14 sites allowed analysis of temporal variation. The effect of elapsed time was modelled with Weibull functions for survivorship and linear functions for recruitment. To explain the residual variations, we tested categorical and continuous variables related to substrate, geomorphology, climate and geography. Human impacts were weighed with historical and quantitative analysis. Results  Elapsed time accounted for 45% of the variation of survivorship in cirio but only 35% in cardón. The fitted Weibull curves were used to estimate longevity: all-size cohorts of 1000 individuals would die out in 388 (cirio) and 723 years (cardón). Recruitment in cirio was linearly related to time (r2 = 0.71) and averaged < 0.003 year−1 but was less than mortality at 90% of the sites. For cardón, recruitment averaged > 0.005 year−1, was linearly related to time (r2 = 0.66) and was less than mortality at only 33% of the sites. Vital rates were not strongly correlated between mid- and late-century but were mostly similar to the long-term regional rates. Removing the factor of elapsed time, the residual variations showed that survivorship was greater on sites protected from winds for cirio and was less on very coarse soils for cardón. Recruitment increased with latitude in cirio and was greater on southern exposures for both species. The residual variations were not clearly affected, at a regional scale, by other factors thought to be important, including elevation, distance to the Pacific Ocean, geology, slope gradient, soil stability, older vs. young alluvial soils, and soil Ca : Mg and Na : K ratios. Human impacts have been sporadic and heterogeneous but locally strong; our quantitative indices of accessibility did not show regionally significant effects. Blowdown by hurricanes is a sporadic cause of major mortality for cirio but not necessarily for cardón. Main conclusions  At our scales, effects of time outweigh those of substrate, and human impact was scant. Large patterns were pronounced: cirio experienced a prolonged, widespread decline in the 1900s, while cardón fluctuated in different directions and degree among local populations. Cirio was found to be inherently much shorter-lived than cardón. We also suggest that recruitment in cirio was low due to long periods with relatively dry winters that affected the entire region, while spatial heterogeneity of cardón recruitment seemed more related to the variation in summer rains.

Evaluating principal surrogate endpoints with time-to-event data accounting for time-varying treatment efficacy.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Gilbert, Peter B

2014-04-01

Principal surrogate (PS) endpoints are relatively inexpensive and easy to measure study outcomes that can be used to reliably predict treatment effects on clinical endpoints of interest. Few statistical methods for assessing the validity of potential PSs utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information and to our knowledge none allow for the characterization of time-varying treatment effects. We introduce the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent treatment efficacy curve, ${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$, and a new augmented trial design for assessing the quality of a biomarker as a PS. We propose a novel Weibull model and an estimated maximum likelihood method for estimation of the ${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$ curve. We describe the operating characteristics of our methods via simulations. We analyze data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial, in which we find evidence of a biomarker with value as a PS.

A Statistics-Based Cracking Criterion of Resin-Bonded Silica Sand for Casting Process Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huimin; Lu, Yan; Ripplinger, Keith; Detwiler, Duane; Luo, Alan A.

2017-02-01

Cracking of sand molds/cores can result in many casting defects such as veining. A robust cracking criterion is needed in casting process simulation for predicting/controlling such defects. A cracking probability map, relating to fracture stress and effective volume, was proposed for resin-bonded silica sand based on Weibull statistics. Three-point bending test results of sand samples were used to generate the cracking map and set up a safety line for cracking criterion. Tensile test results confirmed the accuracy of the safety line for cracking prediction. A laboratory casting experiment was designed and carried out to predict cracking of a cup mold during aluminum casting. The stress-strain behavior and the effective volume of the cup molds were calculated using a finite element analysis code ProCAST®. Furthermore, an energy dispersive spectroscopy fractographic examination of the sand samples confirmed the binder cracking in resin-bonded silica sand.

A Compatible Hardware/Software Reliability Prediction Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-22

machines. In particular, he was interested in the following problem: assu me that one has a collection of connected elements computing and transmitting...software reliability prediction model is desirable, the findings about the Weibull distribution are intriguing. After collecting failure data from several...capacitor, some of the added charge carriers are collected by the capacitor. If the added charge is sufficiently large, the information stored is changed

Ceramic Life Prediction Methodology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-03-01

stress rupture data were collected on two materials, a sintered silicon nitride and a lithium-aluminum-silicate. The fast fracture data was presented...graphically in the form of Weibull plots of percent failed versus failure stress . The stress rupture results were presented in tabular form. Photo...micrographs were presented to illustrate the fracture surfaces of fast fracture and stress rupture failures. A program of specimen development was coaducted

Approximation of the breast height diameter distribution of two-cohort stands by mixture models II Goodness-of-fit tests

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis .A. Roesch

2013-01-01

The goals of this study are (1) to analyse the accuracy of the approximation of empirical distributions of diameter at breast height (dbh) using two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution in two−cohort stands, and (2) to discuss the procedure of choosing goodness−of−fit tests. The study plots were...

Modelling diameter distributions of two-cohort forest stands with various proportions of dominant species: a two-component mixture model approach.

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis Roesch

2014-01-01

In recent years finite-mixture models have been employed to approximate and model empirical diameter at breast height (DBH) distributions. We used two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution for describing the DBH distributions of mixed-species, two-cohort forest stands, to analyse the relationships between the DBH components,...

Wind energy potential assessment of Cameroon's coastal regions for the installation of an onshore wind farm.

PubMed

Arreyndip, Nkongho Ayuketang; Joseph, Ebobenow; David, Afungchui

2016-11-01

For the future installation of a wind farm in Cameroon, the wind energy potentials of three of Cameroon's coastal cities (Kribi, Douala and Limbe) are assessed using NASA average monthly wind data for 31 years (1983-2013) and compared through Weibull statistics. The Weibull parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood, the mean power densities, the maximum energy carrying wind speeds and the most probable wind speeds are also calculated and compared over these three cities. Finally, the cumulative wind speed distributions over the wet and dry seasons are also analyzed. The results show that the shape and scale parameters for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 2.9 and 2.8, 3.9 and 1.8 and 3.08 and 2.58, respectively. The mean power densities through Weibull analysis for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 33.7 W/m2, 8.0 W/m2 and 25.42 W/m2, respectively. Kribi's most probable wind speed and maximum energy carrying wind speed was found to be 2.42 m/s and 3.35 m/s, 2.27 m/s and 3.03 m/s for Limbe and 1.67 m/s and 2.0 m/s for Douala, respectively. Analysis of the wind speed and hence power distribution over the wet and dry seasons shows that in the wet season, August is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while September is the windiest month for Kribi while in the dry season, March is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while February is the windiest month for Kribi. In terms of mean power density, most probable wind speed and wind speed carrying maximum energy, Kribi shows to be the best site for the installation of a wind farm. Generally, the wind speeds at all three locations seem quite low, average wind speeds of all the three studied locations fall below 4.0m/s which is far below the cut-in wind speed of many modern wind turbines. However we recommend the use of low cut-in speed wind turbines like the Savonius for stand alone low energy needs.

Probability of survival of implant-supported metal ceramic and CAD/CAM resin nanoceramic crowns.

PubMed

Bonfante, Estevam A; Suzuki, Marcelo; Lorenzoni, Fábio C; Sena, Lídia A; Hirata, Ronaldo; Bonfante, Gerson; Coelho, Paulo G

2015-08-01

To evaluate the probability of survival and failure modes of implant-supported resin nanoceramic relative to metal-ceramic crowns. Resin nanoceramic molar crowns (LU) (Lava Ultimate, 3M ESPE, USA) were milled and metal-ceramic (MC) (Co-Cr alloy, Wirobond C+, Bego, USA) with identical anatomy were fabricated (n=21). The metal coping and a burnout-resin veneer were created by CAD/CAM, using an abutment (Stealth-abutment, Bicon LLC, USA) and a milled crown from the LU group as models for porcelain hot-pressing (GC-Initial IQ-Press, GC, USA). Crowns were cemented, the implants (n=42, Bicon) embedded in acrylic-resin for mechanical testing, and subjected to single-load to fracture (SLF, n=3 each) for determination of step-stress profiles for accelerated-life testing in water (n=18 each). Weibull curves (50,000 cycles at 200N, 90% CI) were plotted. Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (η) were calculated and a contour plot used (m versus η) for determining differences between groups. Fractography was performed in SEM and polarized-light microscopy. SLF mean values were 1871N (±54.03) for MC and 1748N (±50.71) for LU. Beta values were 0.11 for MC and 0.49 for LU. Weibull modulus was 9.56 and η=1038.8N for LU, and m=4.57 and η=945.42N for MC (p>0.10). Probability of survival (50,000 and 100,000 cycles at 200 and 300N) was 100% for LU and 99% for MC. Failures were cohesive within LU. In MC crowns, porcelain veneer fractures frequently extended to the supporting metal coping. Probability of survival was not different between crown materials, but failure modes differed. In load bearing regions, similar reliability should be expected for metal ceramics, known as the gold standard, and resin nanoceramic crowns over implants. Failure modes involving porcelain veneer fracture and delamination in MC crowns are less likely to be successfully repaired compared to cohesive failures in resin nanoceramic material. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district, Japan: reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology, plate tectonics, tsunami study, micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rikitake, T.

1999-03-01

In light of newly-acquired geophysical information about earthquake generation in the Tokai area, Central Japan, where occurrence of a great earthquake of magnitude 8 or so has recently been feared, probabilities of earthquake occurrence in the near future are reevaluated. Much of the data used for evaluation here relies on recently-developed paleoseismology, tsunami study and GPS geodesy.The new Weibull distribution analysis of recurrence tendency of great earthquakes in the Tokai-Nankai zone indicates that the mean return period of great earthquakes there is estimated as 109 yr with a standard deviation amounting to 33 yr. These values do not differ much from those of previous studies (Rikitake, 1976, 1986; Utsu, 1984).Taking the newly-determined velocities of the motion of Philippine Sea plate at various portions of the Tokai-Nankai zone into account, the ultimate displacements to rupture at the plate boundary are obtained. A Weibull distribution analysis results in the mean ultimate displacement amounting to 4.70 m with a standard deviation estimated as 0.86 m. A return period amounting to 117 yr is obtained at the Suruga Bay portion by dividing the mean ultimate displacement by the relative plate velocity.With the aid of the fault models as determined from the tsunami studies, the increases in the cumulative seismic slips associated with the great earthquakes are examined at various portions of the zone. It appears that a slip-predictable model can better be applied to the occurrence mode of great earthquakes in the zone than a time-predictable model. The crustal strain accumulating over the Tokai area as estimated from the newly-developed geodetic work including the GPS observations is compared to the ultimate strain presumed by the above two models.The probabilities for a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district are then estimated with the aid of the Weibull analysis parameters obtained for the four cases discussed in the above. All the probabilities evaluated for the four cases take on values ranging 35-45 percent for a ten-year period following the year 2000.

Shoemaker-Levy 9 and the tidal disruption of comets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benz, W.; Asphaug, E.

1994-01-01

The break-up of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into multiple pieces following its grazing encounter with Jupiter in July 1992 can be used to study tidally-induced fracture in comets. This spectacular event allows us not only to set limits on the size, strength and density of Shoemaker-Levy 9 itself, but provides invaluable guidance to numerical modeling of such encounters. In an extensive treatment of tidal breakup which assumed self-gravitating, homogeneous, perfectly elastic bodies, Dobrovolskis derived simple analytical expressions for the tidally-induced surface and central stresses. Both can be cast in such a way that Poisson's ratio is the only material dependent constant entering these expressions. Whether both surface and central failure must be initiated as a criterion for breakup, or either one of them is sufficient, remains a subject of disagreement. To resolve this debate, we model the details of cometary breakup using a three-dimensional Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) code modified to simulate fracture in small solid objects. At lower stresses associated with brittle failure, we use a rate-dependent strength based on the nucleation of incipient flaws whose number density is given by a Weibull distribution.

Naproxen conjugated mPEG-PCL micelles for dual triggered drug delivery.

PubMed

Karami, Zahra; Sadighian, Somayeh; Rostamizadeh, Kobra; Parsa, Maliheh; Rezaee, Saeed

2016-04-01

A conjugate of the NSAIDs drug, naproxen, with diblock methoxy poly(ethylene glycol)-poly(ε-caprolactone) (mPEG-PCL) copolymer was synthesized by the reaction of copolymer with naproxen in the presence of dicyclohexylcarbodiimide and dimethylaminopyridine. The naproxen conjugated copolymers were characterized with different techniques including (1)HNMR, FTIR, and DSC. The naproxen conjugated mPEG-PCL copolymers were self-assembled into micelles in aqueous solution. The TEM analysis revealed that the micelles had the average size of about 80 nm. The release behavior of conjugated copolymer was investigated in two different media with the pH values of 7.4 and 5.2. In vitro release study showed that the drug release rate was dependant on pH as it was higher at lower pH compared to neutral pH. Another feature of the conjugated micelles was a more sustained release profile compared to the conjugated copolymer. The kinetic of the drug release from naproxen conjugated micelles under different values of pH was also investigated by different kinetic models such as first-order, Makoid-Banakar, Weibull, Logistic, and Gompertz. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time Variations in Forecasts and Occurrences of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahler, S. W.

2015-12-01

The onsets and development of large solar energetic (E > 10 MeV) particle (SEP) events have been characterized in many studies. The statistics of SEP event onset delay times from associated solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which depend on solar source longitudes, can be used to provide better predictions of whether a SEP event will occur following a large flare or fast CME. In addition, size distributions of peak SEP event intensities provide a means for a probabilistic forecast of peak intensities attained in observed SEP increases. SEP event peak intensities have been compared with their rise and decay times for insight into the acceleration and transport processes. These two time scales are generally treated as independent parameters describing the development of a SEP event, but we can invoke an alternative two-parameter description based on the assumption that decay times exceed rise times for all events. These two parameters, from the well known Weibull distribution, provide an event description in terms of its basic shape and duration. We apply this distribution to several large SEP events and ask what the characteristic parameters and their dependence on source longitudes can tell us about the origins of these important events.

The Evolution of Grain Size Distribution in Explosive Rock Fragmentation - Sequential Fragmentation Theory Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheu, B.; Fowler, A. C.

2015-12-01

Fragmentation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in many natural and engineering systems. It is the process by which an initially competent medium, solid or liquid, is broken up into a population of constituents. Examples occur in collisions and impacts of asteroids/meteorites, explosion driven fragmentation of munitions on a battlefield, as well as of magma in a volcanic conduit causing explosive volcanic eruptions and break-up of liquid drops. Besides the mechanism of fragmentation the resulting frequency-size distribution of the generated constituents is of central interest. Initially their distributions were fitted empirically using lognormal, Rosin-Rammler and Weibull distributions (e.g. Brown & Wohletz 1995). The sequential fragmentation theory (Brown 1989, Wohletz at al. 1989, Wohletz & Brown 1995) and the application of fractal theory to fragmentation products (Turcotte 1986, Perfect 1997, Perugini & Kueppers 2012) attempt to overcome this shortcoming by providing a more physical basis for the applied distribution. Both rely on an at least partially scale-invariant and thus self-similar random fragmentation process. Here we provide a stochastic model for the evolution of grain size distribution during the explosion process. Our model is based on laboratory experiments in which volcanic rock samples explode naturally when rapidly depressurized from initial pressures of several MPa to ambient conditions. The physics governing this fragmentation process has been successfully modelled and the observed fragmentation pattern could be numerically reproduced (Fowler et al. 2010). The fragmentation of these natural rocks leads to grain size distributions which vary depending on the experimental starting conditions. Our model provides a theoretical description of these different grain size distributions. Our model combines a sequential model of the type outlined by Turcotte (1986), but generalized to cater for the explosive process appropriate here, in particular by including in the description of the fracturing events in which the rock fragments, with a recipe for the production of fines, as observed in the experiments. To our knowledge, this implementation of a deterministic fracturing process into a stochastic (sequential) model is unique, further it provides the model with some forecasting power.

Reliability enhancement through optimal burn-in

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, W.

1984-06-01

A numerical reliability and cost model is defined for production line burn-in tests of electronic components. The necessity of burn-in is governed by upper and lower bounds: burn-in is mandatory for operation-critical or nonreparable component; no burn-in is needed when failure effects are insignificant or easily repairable. The model considers electronic systems in terms of a series of components connected by a single black box. The infant mortality rate is described with a Weibull distribution. Performance reaches a steady state after burn-in, and the cost of burn-in is a linear function for each component. A minimum cost is calculated among the costs and total time of burn-in, shop repair, and field repair, with attention given to possible losses in future sales from inadequate burn-in testing.

Alternative power supply systems for remote industrial customers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharlamova, N. V.; Khalyasmaa, A. I.; Eroshenko, S. A.

2017-06-01

The paper addresses the problem of alternative power supply of remote industrial clusters with renewable electric energy generation. As a result of different technologies comparison, consideration is given to wind energy application. The authors present a methodology of mean expected wind generation output calculation, based on Weibull distribution, which provides an effective express-tool for preliminary assessment of required installed generation capacity. The case study is based on real data including database of meteorological information, relief characteristics, power system topology etc. Wind generation feasibility estimation for a specific territory is followed by power flow calculations using Monte Carlo methodology. Finally, the paper provides a set of recommendations to ensure safe and reliable power supply for the final customers and, subsequently, to provide sustainable development of the regions, located far from megalopolises and industrial centres.

Transmission overhaul estimates for partial and full replacement at repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1991-01-01

Timely transmission overhauls increase in-flight service reliability greater than the calculated design reliabilities of the individual aircraft transmission components. Although necessary for aircraft safety, transmission overhauls contribute significantly to aircraft expense. Predictions of a transmission's maintenance needs at the design stage should enable the development of more cost effective and reliable transmissions in the future. The frequency is estimated of overhaul along with the number of transmissions or components needed to support the overhaul schedule. Two methods based on the two parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life are used to estimate the time between transmission overhauls. These methods predict transmission lives for maintenance schedules which repair the transmission with a complete system replacement or repair only failed components of the transmission. An example illustrates the methods.

Effect of titania content and biomimetic coating on the mechanical properties of the Y-TZP/TiO2 composite.

PubMed

Miranda, Ranulfo Benedito de Paula; Miranda, Walter Gomes; Lazar, Dolores Ribeiro Ricci; Ussui, Valter; Marchi, Juliana; Cesar, Paulo Francisco

2018-02-01

To investigate the effect of titania addition (0, 10 and 30mol%) on the microstructure, relative density, Young's modulus (E), Poisson's ratio (υ), mechanical properties (flexural strength, σ f , and Weibull modulus, m) of a Y-TZP/TiO 2 composite. The effect of the presence of a biomimetic coating on the microstructure and mechanical properties was also evaluated. Y-TZP (3mol% of yttria) and Y-TZP/TiO 2 composite (10 or 30mol% of titania) were synthesized by co-precipitation. The powders were pressed and sintered at 1400°C/2h. The surfaces, with and without biomimetic coating, were characterized by X-ray diffraction analysis and scanning electron microscopy. The relative density was measured by the Archimedes' principle. E and υ were measured by ultrasonic pulse-echo method. For the mechanical properties the specimens (n=30 for each group) were tested in a universal testing machine. Titania addition increased the grain size of the composite and caused a significant decrease in the flexural strength (in MPa, control 815.4 a ; T10 455.7 b and T30 336.0 c ), E (in GPa, control 213.4 a ; T10 155.8 b and T30 134.0 c ) and relative density (control 99.0% a ; T10 94.4% c and T30 96.3% b ) of the Y-TZP/TiO 2 composite. The presence of 30% titania caused substantial increase in m and υ. Biomimetic coating did not affect the mechanical properties of the composite. The Y-TZP/TiO 2 composite coated with a layer of CaP has great potential to be used as implant material. Although addition of titania affected the properties of the composite, the application of a biomimetic coating did not jeopardize its reliability. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of a jail methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) program on inmate recidivism.

PubMed

McMillan, Garnett P; Lapham, Sandra; Lackey, Michael

2008-12-01

To evaluate the effects of a jail-based continuation of methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) on subsequent inmate recidivism risks. Prospective, longitudinal, observational study. A large, Southwestern United States jail that continues MMT for heroin-addicted inmates on MMT at the time of booking. A total of 589 inmates booked between 22 November 2005 (the start date for the MMT program) and 31 October 2006. The outcome measure was time from release to subsequent re-booking in the jail. Predictors included binary dosing with methadone in the jail, final dose received (mg), age, gender, race/ethnicity, previous bookings and days in jail. Random effects Weibull proportional hazards models were fit to the recidivism times to estimate the impact of treatment with MMT in the jail on re-booking risks. There was no statistically significant effect of receiving methadone in the jail or dosage on subsequent recidivism risks (hazard ratio = 1.16; 95% confidence interval = 0.8-1.68). Offering jail-based MMT does not increase recidivism risks by eliminating the deterrent effect of imposed withdrawal, nor does it reduce recidivism in this high-risk population.