Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1987-01-01

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

The fracture load and failure types of veneered anterior zirconia crowns: an analysis of normal and Weibull distribution of complete and censored data.

PubMed

Stawarczyk, Bogna; Ozcan, Mutlu; Hämmerle, Christoph H F; Roos, Malgorzata

2012-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the fracture load of veneered anterior zirconia crowns using normal and Weibull distribution of complete and censored data. Standardized zirconia frameworks for maxillary canines were milled using a CAD/CAM system and randomly divided into 3 groups (N=90, n=30 per group). They were veneered with three veneering ceramics, namely GC Initial ZR, Vita VM9, IPS e.max Ceram using layering technique. The crowns were cemented with glass ionomer cement on metal abutments. The specimens were then loaded to fracture (1 mm/min) in a Universal Testing Machine. The data were analyzed using classical method (normal data distribution (μ, σ); Levene test and one-way ANOVA) and according to the Weibull statistics (s, m). In addition, fracture load results were analyzed depending on complete and censored failure types (only chipping vs. total fracture together with chipping). When computed with complete data, significantly higher mean fracture loads (N) were observed for GC Initial ZR (μ=978, σ=157; s=1043, m=7.2) and VITA VM9 (μ=1074, σ=179; s=1139; m=7.8) than that of IPS e.max Ceram (μ=798, σ=174; s=859, m=5.8) (p<0.05) by classical and Weibull statistics, respectively. When the data were censored for only total fracture, IPS e.max Ceram presented the lowest fracture load for chipping with both classical distribution (μ=790, σ=160) and Weibull statistics (s=836, m=6.5). When total fracture with chipping (classical distribution) was considered as failure, IPS e.max Ceram did not show significant fracture load for total fracture (μ=1054, σ=110) compared to other groups (GC Initial ZR: μ=1039, σ=152, VITA VM9: μ=1170, σ=166). According to Weibull distributed data, VITA VM9 showed significantly higher fracture load (s=1228, m=9.4) than those of other groups. Both classical distribution and Weibull statistics for complete data yielded similar outcomes. Censored data analysis of all ceramic systems based on failure types is essential and brings additional information regarding the susceptibility to chipping or total fracture. Copyright © 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2013-01-01

Leonard Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Johnson's methodology is dependent on limited combinations of test parameters (Weibull slope, mean life ratio, and degrees of freedom) and a set of complex mathematical equations. In this report, a simplified algebraic equation for confidence numbers is derived based on the original work of Johnson. The confidence numbers calculated with this equation are compared to those obtained graphically by Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers at the 99 percent level deviate less than 1 percent from those of Johnson. At a 90 percent confidence level, the calculated values differ between +2 and 4 percent. The simplified equation is used to rank the experimental lives of three aluminum alloys (AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075), each tested at three stress levels in rotating beam fatigue, analyzed using the Johnson- Weibull method, and compared to the ASTM Standard (E739 91) method of comparison. The ASTM Standard did not statistically distinguish between AL 6061 and AL 7075. However, it is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers using the Johnson- Weibull analysis. AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median, or L(sub 50), lives

A Weibull characterization for tensile fracture of multicomponent brittle fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrows, R. G.

1977-01-01

A statistical characterization for multicomponent brittle fibers in presented. The method, which is an extension of usual Weibull distribution procedures, statistically considers the components making up a fiber (e.g., substrate, sheath, and surface) as separate entities and taken together as in a fiber. Tensile data for silicon carbide fiber and for an experimental carbon-boron alloy fiber are evaluated in terms of the proposed multicomponent Weibull characterization.

On alternative q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions: Properties and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fode; Ng, Hon Keung Tony; Shi, Yimin

2018-01-01

Tsallis statistics and Tsallis distributions have been attracting a significant amount of research work in recent years. Importantly, the Tsallis statistics, q-distributions have been applied in different disciplines. Yet, a relationship between some existing q-Weibull distributions and q-extreme value distributions that is parallel to the well-established relationship between the conventional Weibull and extreme value distributions through a logarithmic transformation has not be established. In this paper, we proposed an alternative q-Weibull distribution that leads to a q-extreme value distribution via the q-logarithm transformation. Some important properties of the proposed q-Weibull and q-extreme value distributions are studied. Maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters of q-Weibull distribution and their performances are investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The methodologies and the usefulness of the proposed distributions are illustrated by fitting the 2014 traffic fatalities data from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Mechanical properties of silicate glasses exposed to a low-Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiedlocher, David E.; Tucker, Dennis S.; Nichols, Ron; Kinser, Donald L.

1992-01-01

The effects of a 5.8 year exposure to low earth orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of commercial optical fused silica, low iron soda-lime-silica, Pyrex 7740, Vycor 7913, BK-7, and the glass ceramic Zerodur were examined. Mechanical testing employed the ASTM-F-394 piston on 3-ball method in a liquid nitrogen environment. Samples were exposed on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in two locations. Impacts were observed on all specimens except Vycor. Weibull analysis as well as a standard statistical evaluation were conducted. The Weibull analysis revealed no differences between control samples and the two exposed samples. We thus concluded that radiation components of the Earth orbital environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. The upper bound of strength degradation for meteorite impacted samples based upon statistical analysis and observation was 50 percent.

Results of the Verification of the Statistical Distribution Model of Microseismicity Emission Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cianciara, Aleksander

2016-09-01

The paper presents the results of research aimed at verifying the hypothesis that the Weibull distribution is an appropriate statistical distribution model of microseismicity emission characteristics, namely: energy of phenomena and inter-event time. It is understood that the emission under consideration is induced by the natural rock mass fracturing. Because the recorded emission contain noise, therefore, it is subjected to an appropriate filtering. The study has been conducted using the method of statistical verification of null hypothesis that the Weibull distribution fits the empirical cumulative distribution function. As the model describing the cumulative distribution function is given in an analytical form, its verification may be performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Interpretations by means of probabilistic methods require specifying the correct model describing the statistical distribution of data. Because in these methods measurement data are not used directly, but their statistical distributions, e.g., in the method based on the hazard analysis, or in that that uses maximum value statistics.

Bayesian inference based on dual generalized order statistics from the exponentiated Weibull model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Sobhi, Mashail M.

2015-02-01

Bayesian estimation for the two parameters and the reliability function of the exponentiated Weibull model are obtained based on dual generalized order statistics (DGOS). Also, Bayesian prediction bounds for future DGOS from exponentiated Weibull model are obtained. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for Bayesian computations. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used for computing the Bayes estimates and prediction bounds. The results have been specialized to the lower record values. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.

Mixture distributions of wind speed in the UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, J.; Ouarda, T.; Lee, T. S.

2013-12-01

Wind speed probability distribution is commonly used to estimate potential wind energy. The 2-parameter Weibull distribution has been most widely used to characterize the distribution of wind speed. However, it is unable to properly model wind speed regimes when wind speed distribution presents bimodal and kurtotic shapes. Several studies have concluded that the Weibull distribution should not be used for frequency analysis of wind speed without investigation of wind speed distribution. Due to these mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed data, the application of mixture distributions should be further investigated in the frequency analysis of wind speed. A number of studies have investigated the potential wind energy in different parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed were detected from some of these studies. Nevertheless, mixture distributions have not been employed for wind speed modeling in the Arabian Peninsula. In order to improve our understanding of wind energy potential in Arabian Peninsula, mixture distributions should be tested for the frequency analysis of wind speed. The aim of the current study is to assess the suitability of mixture distributions for the frequency analysis of wind speed in the UAE. Hourly mean wind speed data at 10-m height from 7 stations were used in the current study. The Weibull and Kappa distributions were employed as representatives of the conventional non-mixture distributions. 10 mixture distributions are used and constructed by mixing four probability distributions such as Normal, Gamma, Weibull and Extreme value type-one (EV-1) distributions. Three parameter estimation methods such as Expectation Maximization algorithm, Least Squares method and Meta-Heuristic Maximum Likelihood (MHML) method were employed to estimate the parameters of the mixture distributions. In order to compare the goodness-of-fit of tested distributions and parameter estimation methods for sample wind data, the adjusted coefficient of determination, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Chi-squared statistics were computed. Results indicate that MHML presents the best performance of parameter estimation for the used mixture distributions. In most of the employed 7 stations, mixture distributions give the best fit. When the wind speed regime shows mixture distributional characteristics, most of these regimes present the kurtotic statistical characteristic. Particularly, applications of mixture distributions for these stations show a significant improvement in explaining the whole wind speed regime. In addition, the Weibull-Weibull mixture distribution presents the best fit for the wind speed data in the UAE.

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.; Yakovlev, G.; Goltz, C.; Newman, W. I.

2008-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.

Analysis of Flexural Fatigue Strength of Self Compacting Fibre Reinforced Concrete Beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murali, G.; Sudar Celestina, J. P. Arul; Subhashini, N.; Vigneshwari, M.

2017-07-01

This study presents the extensive statistical investigation ofvariations in flexural fatigue life of self-compacting Fibrous Concrete (FC) beams. For this purpose, the experimental data of earlier researchers were examined by two parameter Weibull distribution.Two methods namely Graphical and moment wereused to analyse the variations in experimental data and the results have been presented in the form of probability of survival. The Weibull parameters values obtained from graphical and method of moments are precise. At 0.7 stress level, the fatigue life shows 59861 cyclesfor areliability of 90%.

Design of ceramic components with the NASA/CARES computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

The ceramics analysis and reliability evaluation of structures (CARES) computer program is described. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macro-scopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. CARES uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite-element analysis programs to evaluate how inherent surface and/or volume type flaws component reliability. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for a single or multiple failure modes by using a least-squares analysis or a maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-to-fit-tests, 90 percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan 90 percent confidence band values are also provided. Examples are provided to illustrate the various features of CARES.

Effect of Individual Component Life Distribution on Engine Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry M.

2003-01-01

The effect of individual engine component life distributions on engine life prediction was determined. A Weibull-based life and reliability analysis of the NASA Energy Efficient Engine was conducted. The engine s life at a 95 and 99.9 percent probability of survival was determined based upon the engine manufacturer s original life calculations and assumed values of each of the component s cumulative life distributions as represented by a Weibull slope. The lives of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) disks and blades were also evaluated individually and as a system in a similar manner. Knowing the statistical cumulative distribution of each engine component with reasonable engineering certainty is a condition precedent to predicting the life and reliability of an entire engine. The life of a system at a given reliability will be less than the lowest-lived component in the system at the same reliability (probability of survival). Where Weibull slopes of all the engine components are equal, the Weibull slope had a minimal effect on engine L(sub 0.1) life prediction. However, at a probability of survival of 95 percent (L(sub 5) life), life decreased with increasing Weibull slope.

On the q-type distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadarajah, Saralees; Kotz, Samuel

2007-04-01

Various q-type distributions have appeared in the physics literature in the recent years, see e.g. L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236 (1997) 52-57. It is pointed out in the paper that many of these are the same as or particular cases of what has been known in the statistics literature. Several of these statistical distributions are discussed and references provided. We feel that this paper could be of assistance for modeling problems of the type considered by L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, E. K. Lenzi, q-exponential distribution in urban agglomeration, Phys. Rev. E 65, (2002) 017106. S.M.D. Queiros, On a possible dynamical scenario leading to a generalised Gamma distribution, in xxx.lanl.gov-physics/0411111. U.M.S. Costa, V.N. Freire, L.C. Malacarne, R.S. Mendes, S. Picoli Jr., E.A. de Vasconcelos, E.F. da Silva Jr., An improved description of the dielectric breakdown in oxides based on a generalized Weibull distribution, Physica A 361, (2006) 215. S. Picoli, Jr., R.S. Mendes, L.C. Malacarne, q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis, Physica A 324 (2003) 678-688. A.M.C. de Souza, C. Tsallis, Student's t- and r- distributions: unified derivation from an entropic variational principle, Physica A 236 (1997) 52-57 and others.

On the Distribution of Earthquake Interevent Times and the Impact of Spatial Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristopulos, Dionissios

2013-04-01

The distribution of earthquake interevent times is a subject that has attracted much attention in the statistical physics literature [1-3]. A recent paper proposes that the distribution of earthquake interevent times follows from the the interplay of the crustal strength distribution and the loading function (stress versus time) of the Earth's crust locally [4]. It was also shown that the Weibull distribution describes earthquake interevent times provided that the crustal strength also follows the Weibull distribution and that the loading function follows a power-law during the loading cycle. I will discuss the implications of this work and will present supporting evidence based on the analysis of data from seismic catalogs. I will also discuss the theoretical evidence in support of the Weibull distribution based on models of statistical physics [5]. Since other-than-Weibull interevent times distributions are not excluded in [4], I will illustrate the use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in order to determine which probability distributions are not rejected by the data. Finally, we propose a modification of the Weibull distribution if the size of the system under investigation (i.e., the area over which the earthquake activity occurs) is finite with respect to a critical link size. keywords: hypothesis testing, modified Weibull, hazard rate, finite size References [1] Corral, A., 2004. Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 9210) art. no. 108501. [2] Saichev, A., Sornette, D. 2007. Theory of earthquake recurrence times, J. Geophys. Res., Ser. B 112, B04313/1-26. [3] Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G., 2009. Origin and nonuniversality of the earthquake interevent time distribution Phys. Rev. Lett., 102 (16), art. no. 168501. [4] Hristopulos, D.T., 2003. Spartan Gibbs random field models for geostatistical applications, SIAM Jour. Sci. Comput., 24, 2125-2162. [5] I. Eliazar and J. Klafter, 2006. Growth-collapse and decay-surge evolutions, and geometric Langevin equations, Physica A, 367, 106 - 128.

Rescaled earthquake recurrence time statistics: application to microrepeaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, Christian; Turcotte, Donald L.; Abaimov, Sergey G.; Nadeau, Robert M.; Uchida, Naoki; Matsuzawa, Toru

2009-01-01

Slip on major faults primarily occurs during `characteristic' earthquakes. The recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes play an important role in seismic hazard assessment. A major problem in determining applicable statistics is the short sequences of characteristic earthquakes that are available worldwide. In this paper, we introduce a rescaling technique in which sequences can be superimposed to establish larger numbers of data points. We consider the Weibull and log-normal distributions, in both cases we rescale the data using means and standard deviations. We test our approach utilizing sequences of microrepeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Microrepeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. In this paper, we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several microrepeater sequences from Parkfield, CA as well as NE Japan. We find that, once the respective sequence can be considered to be of sufficient stationarity, the statistics can be well fitted by either a Weibull or a log-normal distribution. We clearly demonstrate this fact by our technique of rescaled combination. We conclude that the recurrence statistics of the microrepeater sequences we consider are similar to the recurrence statistics of characteristic earthquakes on major faults.

Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES). Users and programmers manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1990-01-01

This manual describes how to use the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (CARES) computer program. The primary function of the code is to calculate the fast fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings, such as those found in heat engine applications. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effect of multiaxial stress states on material strength. The principle of independent action (PIA) and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or unifrom uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-square analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests, ninety percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters, and Kanofsky-Srinivasan ninety percent confidence band values are also provided. The probabilistic fast-fracture theories used in CARES, along with the input and output for CARES, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various feature of the program are also included. This manual describes the MSC/NASTRAN version of the CARES program.

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, J. T.

1990-01-01

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1987-01-01

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

Reliability Implications in Wood Systems of a Bivariate Gaussian-Weibull Distribution and the Associated Univariate Pseudo-truncated Weibull

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

2014-01-01

Two important wood properties are the modulus of elasticity (MOE) and the modulus of rupture (MOR). In the past, the statistical distribution of the MOE has often been modeled as Gaussian, and that of the MOR as lognormal or as a two- or three-parameter Weibull distribution. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior...

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Hun C.; Fang, Ho T.

1987-01-01

The technology base required to fabricate silicon nitride components with the strength, reliability, and reproducibility necessary for actual heat engine applications is presented. Task 2 was set up to develop test bars with high Weibull slope and greater high temperature strength, and to conduct an initial net shape component fabrication evaluation. Screening experiments were performed in Task 7 on advanced materials and processing for input to Task 2. The technical efforts performed in the second year of a 5-yr program are covered. The first iteration of Task 2 was completed as planned. Two half-replicated, fractional factorial (2 sup 5), statistically designed matrix experiments were conducted. These experiments have identified Denka 9FW Si3N4 as an alternate raw material to GTE SN502 Si3N4 for subsequent process evaluation. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted to correlate processing conditions with as-processed test bar properties. One processing condition produced a material with a 97 ksi average room temperature MOR (100 percent of goal) with 13.2 Weibull slope (83 percent of goal); another condition produced 86 ksi (6 percent over baseline) room temperature strength with a Weibull slope of 20 (125 percent of goal).

Statistical distribution of mechanical properties for three graphite-epoxy material systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reese, C.; Sorem, J., Jr.

1981-01-01

Graphite-epoxy composites are playing an increasing role as viable alternative materials in structural applications necessitating thorough investigation into the predictability and reproducibility of their material strength properties. This investigation was concerned with tension, compression, and short beam shear coupon testing of large samples from three different material suppliers to determine their statistical strength behavior. Statistical results indicate that a two Parameter Weibull distribution model provides better overall characterization of material behavior for the graphite-epoxy systems tested than does the standard Normal distribution model that is employed for most design work. While either a Weibull or Normal distribution model provides adequate predictions for average strength values, the Weibull model provides better characterization in the lower tail region where the predictions are of maximum design interest. The two sets of the same material were found to have essentially the same material properties, and indicate that repeatability can be achieved.

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1989-01-01

A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

The distribution of first-passage times and durations in FOREX and future markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Scalas, Enrico

2009-07-01

Possible distributions are discussed for intertrade durations and first-passage processes in financial markets. The view-point of renewal theory is assumed. In order to represent market data with relatively long durations, two types of distributions are used, namely a distribution derived from the Mittag-Leffler survival function and the Weibull distribution. For the Mittag-Leffler type distribution, the average waiting time (residual life time) is strongly dependent on the choice of a cut-off parameter tmax, whereas the results based on the Weibull distribution do not depend on such a cut-off. Therefore, a Weibull distribution is more convenient than a Mittag-Leffler type if one wishes to evaluate relevant statistics such as average waiting time in financial markets with long durations. On the other hand, we find that the Gini index is rather independent of the cut-off parameter. Based on the above considerations, we propose a good candidate for describing the distribution of first-passage time in a market: The Weibull distribution with a power-law tail. This distribution compensates the gap between theoretical and empirical results more efficiently than a simple Weibull distribution. It should be stressed that a Weibull distribution with a power-law tail is more flexible than the Mittag-Leffler distribution, which itself can be approximated by a Weibull distribution and a power-law. Indeed, the key point is that in the former case there is freedom of choice for the exponent of the power-law attached to the Weibull distribution, which can exceed 1 in order to reproduce decays faster than possible with a Mittag-Leffler distribution. We also give a useful formula to determine an optimal crossover point minimizing the difference between the empirical average waiting time and the one predicted from renewal theory. Moreover, we discuss the limitation of our distributions by applying our distribution to the analysis of the BTP future and calculating the average waiting time. We find that our distribution is applicable as long as durations follow a Weibull law for short times and do not have too heavy a tail.

Maximum likelihood estimates, from censored data, for mixed-Weibull distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Siyuan; Kececioglu, Dimitri

1992-06-01

A new algorithm for estimating the parameters of mixed-Weibull distributions from censored data is presented. The algorithm follows the principle of maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) through the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm, and it is derived for both postmortem and nonpostmortem time-to-failure data. It is concluded that the concept of the EM algorithm is easy to understand and apply (only elementary statistics and calculus are required). The log-likelihood function cannot decrease after an EM sequence; this important feature was observed in all of the numerical calculations. The MLEs of the nonpostmortem data were obtained successfully for mixed-Weibull distributions with up to 14 parameters in a 5-subpopulation, mixed-Weibull distribution. Numerical examples indicate that some of the log-likelihood functions of the mixed-Weibull distributions have multiple local maxima; therefore, the algorithm should start at several initial guesses of the parameter set.

Determination of the Mechanical Properties of Plasma-Sprayed Hydroxyapatite Coatings Using the Knoop Indentation Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Fahad; Wang, James; Berndt, Christopher

2015-06-01

The microhardness and elastic modulus of plasma-sprayed hydroxyapatite coatings were evaluated using Knoop indentation on the cross section and on the top surface. The effects of indentation angle, testing direction, measurement location and applied load on the microhardness and elastic modulus were investigated. The variability and distribution of the microhardness and elastic modulus data were statistically analysed using the Weibull modulus distribution. The results indicate that the dependence of microhardness and elastic modulus on the indentation angle exhibits a parabolic shape. Dependence of the microhardness values on the indentation angle follows Pythagoras's theorem. The microhardness, Weibull modulus of microhardness and Weibull modulus of elastic modulus reach their maximum at the central position (175 µm) on the cross section of the coatings. The Weibull modulus of microhardness revealed similar values throughout the thickness, and the Weibull modulus of elastic modulus shows higher values on the top surface compared to the cross section.

Parametric regression model for survival data: Weibull regression model as an example

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Weibull regression model is one of the most popular forms of parametric regression model that it provides estimate of baseline hazard function, as well as coefficients for covariates. Because of technical difficulties, Weibull regression model is seldom used in medical literature as compared to the semi-parametric proportional hazard model. To make clinical investigators familiar with Weibull regression model, this article introduces some basic knowledge on Weibull regression model and then illustrates how to fit the model with R software. The SurvRegCensCov package is useful in converting estimated coefficients to clinical relevant statistics such as hazard ratio (HR) and event time ratio (ETR). Model adequacy can be assessed by inspecting Kaplan-Meier curves stratified by categorical variable. The eha package provides an alternative method to model Weibull regression model. The check.dist() function helps to assess goodness-of-fit of the model. Variable selection is based on the importance of a covariate, which can be tested using anova() function. Alternatively, backward elimination starting from a full model is an efficient way for model development. Visualization of Weibull regression model after model development is interesting that it provides another way to report your findings. PMID:28149846

SCARE: A post-processor program to MSC/NASTRAN for the reliability analysis of structural ceramic components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, J. P.

1985-01-01

A computer program was developed for calculating the statistical fast fracture reliability and failure probability of ceramic components. The program includes the two-parameter Weibull material fracture strength distribution model, using the principle of independent action for polyaxial stress states and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive crack theories, all for volume distributed flaws in macroscopically isotropic solids. Both penny-shaped cracks and Griffith cracks are included in the Batdorf shear-sensitive crack response calculations, using Griffith's maximum tensile stress or critical coplanar strain energy release rate criteria to predict mixed mode fracture. Weibull material parameters can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and fracture data. The reliability prediction analysis uses MSC/NASTRAN stress, temperature and volume output, obtained from the use of three-dimensional, quadratic, isoparametric, or axisymmetric finite elements. The statistical fast fracture theories employed, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

CRACK GROWTH ANALYSIS OF SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL ELECTROLYTES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. Bandopadhyay; N. Nagabhushana

2003-10-01

Defects and Flaws control the structural and functional property of ceramics. In determining the reliability and lifetime of ceramics structures it is very important to quantify the crack growth behavior of the ceramics. In addition, because of the high variability of the strength and the relatively low toughness of ceramics, a statistical design approach is necessary. The statistical nature of the strength of ceramics is currently well recognized, and is usually accounted for by utilizing Weibull or similar statistical distributions. Design tools such as CARES using a combination of strength measurements, stress analysis, and statistics are available and reasonably wellmore » developed. These design codes also incorporate material data such as elastic constants as well as flaw distributions and time-dependent properties. The fast fracture reliability for ceramics is often different from their time-dependent reliability. Further confounding the design complexity, the time-dependent reliability varies with the environment/temperature/stress combination. Therefore, it becomes important to be able to accurately determine the behavior of ceramics under simulated application conditions to provide a better prediction of the lifetime and reliability for a given component. In the present study, Yttria stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) of 9.6 mol% Yttria composition was procured in the form of tubes of length 100 mm. The composition is of interest as tubular electrolytes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells. Rings cut from the tubes were characterized for microstructure, phase stability, mechanical strength (Weibull modulus) and fracture mechanisms. The strength at operating condition of SOFCs (1000 C) decreased to 95 MPa as compared to room temperature strength of 230 MPa. However, the Weibull modulus remains relatively unchanged. Slow crack growth (SCG) parameter, n = 17 evaluated at room temperature in air was representative of well studied brittle materials. Based on the results, further work was planned to evaluate the strength degradation, modulus and failure in more representative environment of the SOFCs.« less

Weibull Modulus Estimated by the Non-linear Least Squares Method: A Solution to Deviation Occurring in Traditional Weibull Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Griffiths, W. D.; Chen, J.

2017-11-01

The Maximum Likelihood method and the Linear Least Squares (LLS) method have been widely used to estimate Weibull parameters for reliability of brittle and metal materials. In the last 30 years, many researchers focused on the bias of Weibull modulus estimation, and some improvements have been achieved, especially in the case of the LLS method. However, there is a shortcoming in these methods for a specific type of data, where the lower tail deviates dramatically from the well-known linear fit in a classic LLS Weibull analysis. This deviation can be commonly found from the measured properties of materials, and previous applications of the LLS method on this kind of dataset present an unreliable linear regression. This deviation was previously thought to be due to physical flaws ( i.e., defects) contained in materials. However, this paper demonstrates that this deviation can also be caused by the linear transformation of the Weibull function, occurring in the traditional LLS method. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to carry out a Weibull analysis according to the linearized Weibull function, and the Non-linear Least Squares method (Non-LS) is instead recommended for the Weibull modulus estimation of casting properties.

Statistical analysis of lithium iron sulfide status cell cycle life and failure mode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.; Battles, J.E.; Miller, W.E.

1983-08-01

A statistical model was developed for life cycle testing of electrochemical cell life cycle trials and verified experimentally. The Weibull distribution was selected to predict the end of life for a cell, based on a 20 percent loss of initial stabilized capacity or a decrease to less than 95 percent coulombic efficiency. Groups of 12 or more Li-alloy/FeS cells were cycled to determine the mean time to failure (MTTF) and also to identify the failure modes. The cells were all full size electric vehicle batteries with 150-350 A-hr capacity. The Weibull shape factors were determined and verified in prediction ofmore » the number of cell failures in two 10 cell modules. The short circuit failure in the cells with BN-felt and MgO powder separators were found to be caused by the formation of Li-Al protrusions that penetrated the BN-felt separators, and the extrusion of active material at the edge of the electrodes.« less

Detailed Analysis of the Interoccurrence Time Statistics in Seismic Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroki; Aizawa, Yoji

2017-02-01

The interoccurrence time statistics of seismiciry is studied theoretically as well as numerically by taking into account the conditional probability and the correlations among many earthquakes in different magnitude levels. It is known so far that the interoccurrence time statistics is well approximated by the Weibull distribution, but the more detailed information about the interoccurrence times can be obtained from the analysis of the conditional probability. Firstly, we propose the Embedding Equation Theory (EET), where the conditional probability is described by two kinds of correlation coefficients; one is the magnitude correlation and the other is the inter-event time correlation. Furthermore, the scaling law of each correlation coefficient is clearly determined from the numerical data-analysis carrying out with the Preliminary Determination of Epicenter (PDE) Catalog and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Catalog. Secondly, the EET is examined to derive the magnitude dependence of the interoccurrence time statistics and the multi-fractal relation is successfully formulated. Theoretically we cannot prove the universality of the multi-fractal relation in seismic activity; nevertheless, the theoretical results well reproduce all numerical data in our analysis, where several common features or the invariant aspects are clearly observed. Especially in the case of stationary ensembles the multi-fractal relation seems to obey an invariant curve, furthermore in the case of non-stationary (moving time) ensembles for the aftershock regime the multi-fractal relation seems to satisfy a certain invariant curve at any moving times. It is emphasized that the multi-fractal relation plays an important role to unify the statistical laws of seismicity: actually the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Weibull distribution are unified in the multi-fractal relation, and some universality conjectures regarding the seismicity are briefly discussed.

Response of SiC{sub f}/Si{sub 3}N{sub 4} composites under static and cyclic loading -- An experimental and statistical analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahfuz, H.; Maniruzzaman, M.; Vaidya, U.

1997-04-01

Monotonic tensile and fatigue response of continuous silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon nitride (SiC{sub f}/Si{sub 3}N{sub 4}) composites has been investigated. The monotonic tensile tests have been performed at room and elevated temperatures. Fatigue tests have been conducted at room temperature (RT), at a stress ratio, R = 0.1 and a frequency of 5 Hz. It is observed during the monotonic tests that the composites retain only 30% of its room temperature strength at 1,600 C suggesting a substantial chemical degradation of the matrix at that temperature. The softening of the matrix at elevated temperature also causes reduction in tensilemore » modulus, and the total reduction in modulus is around 45%. Fatigue data have been generated at three load levels and the fatigue strength of the composite has been found to be considerably high; about 75% of its ultimate room temperature strength. Extensive statistical analysis has been performed to understand the degree of scatter in the fatigue as well as in the static test data. Weibull shape factors and characteristic values have been determined for each set of tests and their relationship with the response of the composites has been discussed. A statistical fatigue life prediction method developed from the Weibull distribution is also presented. Maximum Likelihood Estimator with censoring techniques and data pooling schemes has been employed to determine the distribution parameters for the statistical analysis. These parameters have been used to generate the S-N diagram with desired level of reliability. Details of the statistical analysis and the discussion of the static and fatigue behavior of the composites are presented in this paper.« less

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Universal Recurrence Time Statistics of Characteristic Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, C.; Turcotte, D. L.; Abaimov, S.; Nadeau, R. M.

2006-12-01

Characteristic earthquakes are defined to occur quasi-periodically on major faults. Do recurrence time statistics of such earthquakes follow a particular statistical distribution? If so, which one? The answer is fundamental and has important implications for hazard assessment. The problem cannot be solved by comparing the goodness of statistical fits as the available sequences are too short. The Parkfield sequence of M ≍ 6 earthquakes, one of the most extensive reliable data sets available, has grown to merely seven events with the last earthquake in 2004, for example. Recently, however, advances in seismological monitoring and improved processing methods have unveiled so-called micro-repeaters, micro-earthquakes which recur exactly in the same location on a fault. It seems plausible to regard these earthquakes as a miniature version of the classic characteristic earthquakes. Micro-repeaters are much more frequent than major earthquakes, leading to longer sequences for analysis. Due to their recent discovery, however, available sequences contain less than 20 events at present. In this paper we present results for the analysis of recurrence times for several micro-repeater sequences from Parkfield and adjacent regions. To improve the statistical significance of our findings, we combine several sequences into one by rescaling the individual sets by their respective mean recurrence intervals and Weibull exponents. This novel approach of rescaled combination yields the most extensive data set possible. We find that the resulting statistics can be fitted well by an exponential distribution, confirming the universal applicability of the Weibull distribution to characteristic earthquakes. A similar result is obtained from rescaled combination, however, with regard to the lognormal distribution.

Determining the parameters of Weibull function to estimate the wind power potential in conditions of limited source meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fetisova, Yu. A.; Ermolenko, B. V.; Ermolenko, G. V.; Kiseleva, S. V.

2017-04-01

We studied the information basis for the assessment of wind power potential on the territory of Russia. We described the methodology to determine the parameters of the Weibull function, which reflects the density of distribution of probabilities of wind flow speeds at a defined basic height above the surface of the earth using the available data on the average speed at this height and its repetition by gradations. The application of the least square method for determining these parameters, unlike the use of graphical methods, allows performing a statistical assessment of the results of approximation of empirical histograms by the Weibull formula. On the basis of the computer-aided analysis of the statistical data, it was shown that, at a fixed point where the wind speed changes at different heights, the range of parameter variation of the Weibull distribution curve is relatively small, the sensitivity of the function to parameter changes is quite low, and the influence of changes on the shape of speed distribution curves is negligible. Taking this into consideration, we proposed and mathematically verified the methodology of determining the speed parameters of the Weibull function at other heights using the parameter computations for this function at a basic height, which is known or defined by the average speed of wind flow, or the roughness coefficient of the geological substrate. We gave examples of practical application of the suggested methodology in the development of the Atlas of Renewable Energy Resources in Russia in conditions of deficiency of source meteorological data. The proposed methodology, to some extent, may solve the problem related to the lack of information on the vertical profile of repeatability of the wind flow speeds in the presence of a wide assortment of wind turbines with different ranges of wind-wheel axis heights and various performance characteristics in the global market; as a result, this methodology can become a powerful tool for effective selection of equipment in the process of designing a power supply system in a certain location.

Statistical models for the distribution of modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture in lumber with implications for reliability calculations

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; Frank C. Owens; David E. Kretschmann; Rubin Shmulsky

2017-01-01

It is common practice to assume that a two-parameter Weibull probability distribution is suitable for modeling lumber properties. Verrill and co-workers demonstrated theoretically and empirically that the modulus of rupture (MOR) distribution of visually graded or machine stress rated (MSR) lumber is not distributed as a Weibull. Instead, the tails of the MOR...

Influence of Endodontic Treatment and Retreatment on the Fatigue Failure Load, Numbers of Cycles for Failure, and Survival Rates of Human Canine Teeth.

PubMed

Missau, Taiane; De Carlo Bello, Mariana; Michelon, Carina; Mastella Lang, Pauline; Kalil Pereira, Gabriel; Baldissara, Paolo; Valandro, Luiz Felipe; Souza Bier, Carlos Alexandre; Pivetta Rippe, Marília

2017-12-01

This study evaluated the effects of endodontic treatment and retreatment on the fatigue failure load, numbers of cycles for failure, and survival rates of canine teeth. Sixty extracted canine teeth, each with a single root canal, were selected and randomly divided into 4 groups (n = 15): untreated, teeth without endodontic intervention; prepared, teeth subjected only to rotary instrumentation; filled, teeth receiving complete endodontic treatment; and retreated, teeth retreated endodontically. After the different endodontic interventions, the specimens were subjected to fatigue testing by the stepwise method: 200 N (× 5000 load pulses), 300 N, 400 N, 500 N, 600 N, 800 N, and 900 N at a maximum of 30,000 load pulses each or the occurrence of fracture. Data from load to failure and numbers of cycles for fracture were recorded and subjected to Kaplan-Meier and Log Rank tests (P < .05), in addition to Weibull analysis. The fractures of the specimens were classified as repairable or catastrophic. The retreated, filled, and untreated groups presented statistically significantly higher fatigue failure loads and numbers of cycles for failure than did the prepared group. Weibull analysis showed no statistically significant difference among the treatments for characteristic load to failure and characteristic number of cycles for failure, although, for number of cycles, a higher Weibull modulus was observed in filled and retreated conditions. The predominant mode of failure was catastrophic. Teeth subjected to complete endodontic treatment and retreatment behaved similarly in terms of fatigue failure load and number of cycles to failure when compared with untreated teeth. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Powers, Lynn M.; Starlinger, Alois

1992-01-01

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

Reliability, failure probability, and strength of resin-based materials for CAD/CAM restorations

PubMed Central

Lim, Kiatlin; Yap, Adrian U-Jin; Agarwalla, Shruti Vidhawan; Tan, Keson Beng-Choon; Rosa, Vinicius

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: This study investigated the Weibull parameters and 5% fracture probability of direct, indirect composites, and CAD/CAM composites. Material and Methods: Discshaped (12 mm diameter x 1 mm thick) specimens were prepared for a direct composite [Z100 (ZO), 3M-ESPE], an indirect laboratory composite [Ceramage (CM), Shofu], and two CAD/CAM composites [Lava Ultimate (LU), 3M ESPE; Vita Enamic (VE), Vita Zahnfabrik] restorations (n=30 for each group). The specimens were polished, stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C. Weibull parameters (m= modulus of Weibull, σ0= characteristic strength) and flexural strength for 5% fracture probability (σ5%) were determined using a piston-on-three-balls device at 1 MPa/s in distilled water. Statistical analysis for biaxial flexural strength analysis were performed either by both one-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc (α=0.05) or by Pearson's correlation test. Results: Ranking of m was: VE (19.5), LU (14.5), CM (11.7), and ZO (9.6). Ranking of σ0 (MPa) was: LU (218.1), ZO (210.4), CM (209.0), and VE (126.5). σ5% (MPa) was 177.9 for LU, 163.2 for CM, 154.7 for Z0, and 108.7 for VE. There was no significant difference in the m for ZO, CM, and LU. VE presented the highest m value and significantly higher than ZO. For σ0 and σ5%, ZO, CM, and LU were similar but higher than VE. Conclusion: The strength characteristics of CAD/ CAM composites vary according to their composition and microstructure. VE presented the lowest strength and highest Weibull modulus among the materials. PMID:27812614

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): Weibull analysis report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raffaelli, Gary G.

1987-01-01

The Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) and Hydraulic Power Unit (HPU) Space Shuttle Subsystems were reviewed as candidates for demonstrating the Weibull analysis methodology. Three hardware components were identified as analysis candidates: the turbine wheel, the gearbox, and the gas generator. Detailed review of subsystem level wearout and failure history revealed the lack of actual component failure data. In addition, component wearout data were not readily available or would require a separate data accumulation effort by the vendor. Without adequate component history data being available, the Weibull analysis methodology application to the APU and HPU subsystem group was terminated.

Set statistics in conductive bridge random access memory device with Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Meiyun; Long, Shibing, E-mail: longshibing@ime.ac.cn; Wang, Guoming

2014-11-10

The switching parameter variation of resistive switching memory is one of the most important challenges in its application. In this letter, we have studied the set statistics of conductive bridge random access memory with a Cu/HfO{sub 2}/Pt structure. The experimental distributions of the set parameters in several off resistance ranges are shown to nicely fit a Weibull model. The Weibull slopes of the set voltage and current increase and decrease logarithmically with off resistance, respectively. This experimental behavior is perfectly captured by a Monte Carlo simulator based on the cell-based set voltage statistics model and the Quantum Point Contact electronmore » transport model. Our work provides indications for the improvement of the switching uniformity.« less

A simple linear regression method for quantitative trait loci linkage analysis with censored observations.

PubMed

Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

2006-07-01

Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.

An overview of engineering concepts and current design algorithms for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, S. F.; Hu, J.; Hopkins, D. A.

1995-01-01

The article begins by examining the fundamentals of traditional deterministic design philosophy. The initial section outlines the concepts of failure criteria and limit state functions two traditional notions that are embedded in deterministic design philosophy. This is followed by a discussion regarding safety factors (a possible limit state function) and the common utilization of statistical concepts in deterministic engineering design approaches. Next the fundamental aspects of a probabilistic failure analysis are explored and it is shown that deterministic design concepts mentioned in the initial portion of the article are embedded in probabilistic design methods. For components fabricated from ceramic materials (and other similarly brittle materials) the probabilistic design approach yields the widely used Weibull analysis after suitable assumptions are incorporated. The authors point out that Weibull analysis provides the rare instance where closed form solutions are available for a probabilistic failure analysis. Since numerical methods are usually required to evaluate component reliabilities, a section on Monte Carlo methods is included to introduce the concept. The article concludes with a presentation of the technical aspects that support the numerical method known as fast probability integration (FPI). This includes a discussion of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler approximations.

A statistical analogy between collapse of solids and death of living organisms: proposal for a 'law of life'.

PubMed

Pugno, Nicola M

2007-01-01

In this paper we present a statistical analogy between the collapse of solids and living organisms; in particular we deduce a statistical law governing their probability of death. We have derived such a law coupling the widely used Weibull Statistics, developed for describing the distribution of the strength of solids, with a general model for ontogenetic growth recently proposed in literature. The main idea presented in this paper is that cracks can propagate in solids and cause their failure as sick cells in living organisms can cause their death. Making a rough analogy, living organisms are found to behave as "growing" mechanical components under cyclic, i.e., fatigue, loadings and composed by a dynamic evolutionary material that, as an ineluctable fate, deteriorates. The implications on biological scaling laws are discussed. As an example, we apply such a Dynamic Weibull Statistics to large data collections on human deaths due to cancer of various types recorded in Italy: a significant agreement is observed.

The effects of multiple repairs on Inconel 718 weld mechanical properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, C. K.; Nunes, A. C., Jr.; Moore, D.

1991-01-01

Inconel 718 weldments were repaired 3, 6, 9, and 13 times using the gas tungsten arc welding process. The welded panels were machined into mechanical test specimens, postweld heat treated, and nondestructively tested. Tensile properties and high cycle fatigue life were evaluated and the results compared to unrepaired weld properties. Mechanical property data were analyzed using the statistical methods of difference in means for tensile properties and difference in log means and Weibull analysis for high cycle fatigue properties. Statistical analysis performed on the data did not show a significant decrease in tensile or high cycle fatigue properties due to the repeated repairs. Some degradation was observed in all properties, however, it was minimal.

Availability Estimation for Facilities in Extreme Geographical Locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, Gerd M.; Omotoso, Oluseun; Chen, Guangming; Evans, John W.

2012-01-01

A value added analysis for the Reliability. Availability and Maintainability of McMurdo Ground Station was developed, which will be a useful tool for system managers in sparing, maintenance planning and determining vital performance metrics needed for readiness assessment of the upgrades to the McMurdo System. Output of this study can also be used as inputs and recommendations for the application of Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) for the system. ReliaSoft's BlockSim. a commercial Reliability Analysis software package, has been used to model the availability of the system upgrade to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Network (NEN) Ground Station at McMurdo Station in the Antarctica. The logistics challenges due to the closure of access to McMurdo Station during the Antarctic winter was modeled using a weighted composite of four Weibull distributions. one of the possible choices for statistical distributions throughout the software program and usually used to account for failure rates of components supplied by different manufacturers. The inaccessibility of the antenna site on a hill outside McMurdo Station throughout one year due to severe weather was modeled with a Weibull distribution for the repair crew availability. The Weibull distribution is based on an analysis of the available weather data for the antenna site for 2007 in combination with the rules for travel restrictions due to severe weather imposed by the administrating agency, the National Science Foundation (NSF). The simulations resulted in an upper bound for the system availability and allowed for identification of components that would improve availability based on a higher on-site spare count than initially planned.

Extreme value statistics analysis of fracture strengths of a sintered silicon nitride failing from pores

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Luen-Yuan; Shetty, Dinesh K.

1992-01-01

Statistical analysis and correlation between pore-size distribution and fracture strength distribution using the theory of extreme-value statistics is presented for a sintered silicon nitride. The pore-size distribution on a polished surface of this material was characterized, using an automatic optical image analyzer. The distribution measured on the two-dimensional plane surface was transformed to a population (volume) distribution, using the Schwartz-Saltykov diameter method. The population pore-size distribution and the distribution of the pore size at the fracture origin were correllated by extreme-value statistics. Fracture strength distribution was then predicted from the extreme-value pore-size distribution, usin a linear elastic fracture mechanics model of annular crack around pore and the fracture toughness of the ceramic. The predicted strength distribution was in good agreement with strength measurements in bending. In particular, the extreme-value statistics analysis explained the nonlinear trend in the linearized Weibull plot of measured strengths without postulating a lower-bound strength.

Tensile bond strength of filled and unfilled adhesives to dentin.

PubMed

Braga, R R; Cesar, P F; Gonzaga, C C

2000-04-01

To determine the tensile bond strength of three filled and two unfilled adhesives applied to bovine dentin. Fragments of the labial dentin of bovine incisors were embedded in PVC cylinders with self-cure acrylic resin, and ground flat using 200 grit and 600 grit sandpaper. The following adhesive systems were tested (n=10): Prime & Bond NT, Prime & Bond NT dual cure, Prime & Bond 2.1, OptiBond Solo and Single Bond. A 3 mm-diameter bonding surface was delimited using a perforated adhesive tape. After etching with 37% phosphoric acid and adhesive application, a resin-based composite truncated cone (TPH, shade A3) was built. Tensile test was performed after 24 hrs storage in distilled water at 37 degrees C. Failure mode was accessed using a x10 magnification stereomicroscope. Weibull statistical analysis revealed significant differences in the characteristic strength between Single Bond and Prime & Bond NT dual cure, and between Single Bond and Prime & Bond 2.1. The Weibull parameter (m) was statistically similar among the five groups. Single Bond and Prime & Bond NT showed areas of dentin cohesive failure in most of the specimens. For OptiBond Solo, Prime & Bond NT dual cure and Prime & Bond 2.1 failure was predominantly adhesive.

Failure statistics for commercial lithium ion batteries: A study of 24 pouch cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Stephen J.; Harris, David J.; Li, Chen

2017-02-01

There are relatively few publications that assess capacity decline in enough commercial cells to quantify cell-to-cell variation, but those that do show a surprisingly wide variability. Capacity curves cross each other often, a challenge for efforts to measure the state of health and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual cells. We analyze capacity fade statistics for 24 commercial pouch cells, providing an estimate for the time to 5% failure. Our data indicate that RUL predictions based on remaining capacity or internal resistance are accurate only once the cells have already sorted themselves into "better" and "worse" ones. Analysis of our failure data, using maximum likelihood techniques, provide uniformly good fits for a variety of definitions of failure with normal and with 2- and 3-parameter Weibull probability density functions, but we argue against using a 3-parameter Weibull function for our data. pdf fitting parameters appear to converge after about 15 failures, although business objectives should ultimately determine whether data from a given number of batteries provides sufficient confidence to end lifecycle testing. Increased efforts to make batteries with more consistent lifetimes should lead to improvements in battery cost and safety.

Recalcitrant vulnerability curves: methods of analysis and the concept of fibre bridges for enhanced cavitation resistance.

PubMed

Cai, Jing; Li, Shan; Zhang, Haixin; Zhang, Shuoxin; Tyree, Melvin T

2014-01-01

Vulnerability curves (VCs) generally can be fitted to the Weibull equation; however, a growing number of VCs appear to be recalcitrant, that is, deviate from a Weibull but seem to fit dual Weibull curves. We hypothesize that dual Weibull curves in Hippophae rhamnoides L. are due to different vessel diameter classes, inter-vessel hydraulic connections or vessels versus fibre tracheids. We used dye staining techniques, hydraulic measurements and quantitative anatomy measurements to test these hypotheses. The fibres contribute 1.3% of the total stem conductivity, which eliminates the hypothesis that fibre tracheids account for the second Weibull curve. Nevertheless, the staining pattern of vessels and fibre tracheids suggested that fibres might function as a hydraulic bridge between adjacent vessels. We also argue that fibre bridges are safer than vessel-to-vessel pits and put forward the concept as a new paradigm. Hence, we tentatively propose that the first Weibull curve may be accounted by vessels connected to each other directly by pit fields, while the second Weibull curve is associated with vessels that are connected almost exclusively by fibre bridges. Further research is needed to test the concept of fibre bridge safety in species that have recalcitrant or normal Weibull curves. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

USE OF WEIBULL FUNCTION FOR NON-LINEAR ANALYSIS OF EFFECTS OF LOW LEVELS OF SIMULATED HERBICIDE DRIFT ON PLANTS

EPA Science Inventory

We compared two regression models, which are based on the Weibull and probit functions, for the analysis of pesticide toxicity data from laboratory studies on Illinois crop and native plant species. Both mathematical models are continuous, differentiable, strictly positive, and...

Monolithic ceramic analysis using the SCARE program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manderscheid, Jane M.

1988-01-01

The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.

Application of Weibull analysis to SSME hardware

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gray, L. A. B.

1986-01-01

Generally, it has been documented that the wearing of engine parts forms a failure distribution which can be approximated by a function developed by Weibull. The purpose here is to examine to what extent the Weibull distribution approximates failure data for designated engine parts of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The current testing certification requirements will be examined in order to establish confidence levels. An examination of the failure history of SSME parts/assemblies (turbine blades, main combustion chamber, or high pressure fuel pump first stage impellers) which are limited in usage by time or starts will be done by using updated Weibull techniques. Efforts will be made by the investigator to predict failure trends by using Weibull techniques for SSME parts (turbine temperature sensors, chamber pressure transducers, actuators, and controllers) which are not severely limited by time or starts.

Weibull crack density coefficient for polydimensional stress states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

A structural ceramic analysis and reliability evaluation code has recently been developed encompassing volume and surface flaw induced fracture, modeled by the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. A segment of the software involves computing the Weibull polydimensional stress state crack density coefficient from uniaxial stress experimental fracture data. The relationship of the polydimensional stress coefficient to the uniaxial stress coefficient is derived for a shear-insensitive material with a random surface flaw population.

Recurrence and interoccurrence behavior of self-organized complex phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, S. G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Shcherbakov, R.; Rundle, J. B.

2007-08-01

The sandpile, forest-fire and slider-block models are said to exhibit self-organized criticality. Associated natural phenomena include landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. In all cases the frequency-size distributions are well approximated by power laws (fractals). Another important aspect of both the models and natural phenomena is the statistics of interval times. These statistics are particularly important for earthquakes. For earthquakes it is important to make a distinction between interoccurrence and recurrence times. Interoccurrence times are the interval times between earthquakes on all faults in a region whereas recurrence times are interval times between earthquakes on a single fault or fault segment. In many, but not all cases, interoccurrence time statistics are exponential (Poissonian) and the events occur randomly. However, the distribution of recurrence times are often Weibull to a good approximation. In this paper we study the interval statistics of slip events using a slider-block model. The behavior of this model is sensitive to the stiffness α of the system, α=kC/kL where kC is the spring constant of the connector springs and kL is the spring constant of the loader plate springs. For a soft system (small α) there are no system-wide events and interoccurrence time statistics of the larger events are Poissonian. For a stiff system (large α), system-wide events dominate the energy dissipation and the statistics of the recurrence times between these system-wide events satisfy the Weibull distribution to a good approximation. We argue that this applicability of the Weibull distribution is due to the power-law (scale invariant) behavior of the hazard function, i.e. the probability that the next event will occur at a time t0 after the last event has a power-law dependence on t0. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale invariant hazard function. We further show that the onset of system-wide events is a well defined critical point. We find that the number of system-wide events NSWE satisfies the scaling relation NSWE ∝(α-αC)δ where αC is the critical value of the stiffness. The system-wide events represent a new phase for the slider-block system.

Universal self-similarity of propagating populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-07-01

This paper explores the universal self-similarity of propagating populations. The following general propagation model is considered: particles are randomly emitted from the origin of a d -dimensional Euclidean space and propagate randomly and independently of each other in space; all particles share a statistically common—yet arbitrary—motion pattern; each particle has its own random propagation parameters—emission epoch, motion frequency, and motion amplitude. The universally self-similar statistics of the particles’ displacements and first passage times (FPTs) are analyzed: statistics which are invariant with respect to the details of the displacement and FPT measurements and with respect to the particles’ underlying motion pattern. Analysis concludes that the universally self-similar statistics are governed by Poisson processes with power-law intensities and by the Fréchet and Weibull extreme-value laws.

Universal self-similarity of propagating populations.

PubMed

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-07-01

This paper explores the universal self-similarity of propagating populations. The following general propagation model is considered: particles are randomly emitted from the origin of a d-dimensional Euclidean space and propagate randomly and independently of each other in space; all particles share a statistically common--yet arbitrary--motion pattern; each particle has its own random propagation parameters--emission epoch, motion frequency, and motion amplitude. The universally self-similar statistics of the particles' displacements and first passage times (FPTs) are analyzed: statistics which are invariant with respect to the details of the displacement and FPT measurements and with respect to the particles' underlying motion pattern. Analysis concludes that the universally self-similar statistics are governed by Poisson processes with power-law intensities and by the Fréchet and Weibull extreme-value laws.

Statistical behavior of the tensile property of heated cotton fiber

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The temperature dependence of the tensile property of single cotton fiber was studied in the range of 160-300°C using Favimat test, and its statistical behavior was interpreted in terms of structural changes. The tenacity of control cotton fiber was well described by the single Weibull distribution,...

Interpreting the Weibull fitting parameters for diffusion-controlled release data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ignacio, Maxime; Chubynsky, Mykyta V.; Slater, Gary W.

2017-11-01

We examine the diffusion-controlled release of molecules from passive delivery systems using both analytical solutions of the diffusion equation and numerically exact Lattice Monte Carlo data. For very short times, the release process follows a √{ t } power law, typical of diffusion processes, while the long-time asymptotic behavior is exponential. The crossover time between these two regimes is determined by the boundary conditions and initial loading of the system. We show that while the widely used Weibull function provides a reasonable fit (in terms of statistical error), it has two major drawbacks: (i) it does not capture the correct limits and (ii) there is no direct connection between the fitting parameters and the properties of the system. Using a physically motivated interpolating fitting function that correctly includes both time regimes, we are able to predict the values of the Weibull parameters which allows us to propose a physical interpretation.

Fatigue criterion to system design, life and reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E. V.

1985-01-01

A generalized methodology to structural life prediction, design, and reliability based upon a fatigue criterion is advanced. The life prediction methodology is based in part on work of W. Weibull and G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren. The approach incorporates the computed life of elemental stress volumes of a complex machine element to predict system life. The results of coupon fatigue testing can be incorporated into the analysis allowing for life prediction and component or structural renewal rates with reasonable statistical certainty.

Comparing Methods for Assessing Reliability Uncertainty Based on Pass/Fail Data Collected Over Time

DOE PAGES

Abes, Jeff I.; Hamada, Michael S.; Hills, Charles R.

2017-12-20

In this paper, we compare statistical methods for analyzing pass/fail data collected over time; some methods are traditional and one (the RADAR or Rationale for Assessing Degradation Arriving at Random) was recently developed. These methods are used to provide uncertainty bounds on reliability. We make observations about the methods' assumptions and properties. Finally, we illustrate the differences between two traditional methods, logistic regression and Weibull failure time analysis, and the RADAR method using a numerical example.

Comparing Methods for Assessing Reliability Uncertainty Based on Pass/Fail Data Collected Over Time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abes, Jeff I.; Hamada, Michael S.; Hills, Charles R.

In this paper, we compare statistical methods for analyzing pass/fail data collected over time; some methods are traditional and one (the RADAR or Rationale for Assessing Degradation Arriving at Random) was recently developed. These methods are used to provide uncertainty bounds on reliability. We make observations about the methods' assumptions and properties. Finally, we illustrate the differences between two traditional methods, logistic regression and Weibull failure time analysis, and the RADAR method using a numerical example.

pT spectra in pp and AA collisions at RHIC and LHC energies using the Tsallis-Weibull approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Sadhana; Mahapatra, D. P.

2018-04-01

The Tsallis q -statistics have been incorporated in the Weibull model of particle production, in the form of q-Weibull distribution, to describe the transverse momentum (pT) distribution of charged hadrons at mid-rapidity, measured at RHIC and LHC energies. The q-Weibull distribution is found to describe the observed pT distributions over all ranges of measured pT. Below 2.2 GeV/c, while going from peripheral to central collisions, the parameter q is found to decrease systematically towards unity, indicating an evolution from a non-equilibrated system in peripheral collisions, towards a more thermalized system in central collisions. However, the trend is reversed in the all inclusive pT regime. This can be attributed to an increase in relative contribution of hard pQCD processes in central collisions. The λ-parameter is found to be associated with the mean pT or the collective expansion velocity of the produced hadrons, which shows an expected increase with centrality of collisions. The k parameter is observed to increase with the onset of hard QCD scatterings, initial fluctuations, and other processes leading to non-equilibrium conditions.

Determination of thermal inactivation kinetics of hepatitis A virus in blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) homogenate.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2014-05-01

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) is a food-borne enteric virus responsible for outbreaks of hepatitis associated with shellfish consumption. The objectives of this study were to determine the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV in blue mussels, to compare the first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, to calculate Arrhenius activation energy for each model, and to evaluate model efficiency by using selected statistical criteria. The times required to reduce the population by 1 log cycle (D-values) calculated from the first-order model (50 to 72°C) ranged from 1.07 to 54.17 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the times required to destroy 1 log unit (tD = 1) of HAV at the same temperatures were 1.57 to 37.91 min. At 72°C, the treatment times required to achieve a 6-log reduction were 7.49 min for the first-order model and 8.47 min for the Weibull model. The z-values (changes in temperature required for a 90% change in the log D-values) calculated for HAV were 15.88 ± 3.97°C (R(2), 0.94) with the Weibull model and 12.97 ± 0.59°C (R(2), 0.93) with the first-order model. The calculated activation energies for the first-order model and the Weibull model were 165 and 153 kJ/mol, respectively. The results revealed that the Weibull model was more appropriate for representing the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV in blue mussels. Correct understanding of the thermal inactivation behavior of HAV could allow precise determination of the thermal process conditions to prevent food-borne viral outbreaks associated with the consumption of contaminated mussels.

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory.

PubMed

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic-scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are "random environment" settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic-scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark's law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)-in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes-and present "randomized counterparts" to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic—scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are “random environment” settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic—scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark’s law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)—in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes—and present “randomized counterparts” to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

A method for developing design diagrams for ceramic and glass materials using fatigue data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heslin, T. M.; Magida, M. B.; Forrest, K. A.

1986-01-01

The service lifetime of glass and ceramic materials can be expressed as a plot of time-to-failure versus applied stress whose plot is parametric in percent probability of failure. This type of plot is called a design diagram. Confidence interval estimates for such plots depend on the type of test that is used to generate the data, on assumptions made concerning the statistical distribution of the test results, and on the type of analysis used. This report outlines the development of design diagrams for glass and ceramic materials in engineering terms using static or dynamic fatigue tests, assuming either no particular statistical distribution of test results or a Weibull distribution and using either median value or homologous ratio analysis of the test results.

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1989-01-01

The development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines is studied. Injection molding was the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals were to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in four-point loading. Statistically designed experiments were performed throughout the program and a fluid mixing process employing an attritor mixer was developed. Compositional improvements in the amounts and sources of boron and carbon used and a pressureless sintering cycle were developed which provided samples of about 99 percent of theoretical density. Strengths were found to improve significantly by annealing in air. Strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) with Weibull modulus of about 9 were obtained. Further improvements in Weibull modulus to about 16 were realized by proof testing. This is an increase of 86 percent in strength and 100 percent in Weibull modulus over the baseline data generated at the beginning of the program. Molding yields were improved and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. Magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectra were found to be useful in characterizing the SiC powder and the sintered samples. Turbocharger rotors were molded and examined as an indication of the moldability of the mixes which were developed in this program.

Effect of grinding with diamond-disc and -bur on the mechanical behavior of a Y-TZP ceramic.

PubMed

Pereira, G K R; Amaral, M; Simoneti, R; Rocha, G C; Cesar, P F; Valandro, L F

2014-09-01

This study compared the effects of grinding on the surface micromorphology, phase transformation (t→m), biaxial flexural strength and structural reliability (Weibull analysis) of a Y-TZP (Lava) ceramic using diamond-discs and -burs. 170 discs (15×1.2mm) were produced and divided into 5 groups: without treatment (Ctrl, as-sintered), and ground with 4 different systems: extra-fine (25µm, Xfine) and coarse diamond-bur (181µm, Coarse), 600-grit (25µm, D600) and 120-grit diamond-disc (160µm, D120). Grinding with burs was performed using a contra-angle handpiece (T2-Revo R170, Sirona), while for discs (Allied) a Polishing Machine (Ecomet, Buehler) was employed, both under water-cooling. Micromorphological analysis showed distinct patterns generated by grinding with discs and burs, independent of grit size. There was no statistical difference for characteristic strength values (MPa) between smaller grit sizes (D600 - 1050.08 and Xfine - 1171.33), although they presented higher values compared to Ctrl (917.58). For bigger grit sizes, a significant difference was observed (Coarse - 1136.32>D120 - 727.47). Weibull Modules were statistically similar between the tested groups. Within the limits of this study, from a micromorphological point-of-view, the treatments performed did not generate similar effects, so from a methodological point-of-view, diamond-discs should not be employed to simulate clinical abrasion performed with diamond-burs on Y-TZP ceramics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

PubMed

Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

2016-01-01

Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

ZERODUR: deterministic approach for strength design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2012-12-01

There is an increasing request for zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR substrates being capable of enduring higher operational static loads or accelerations. The integrity of structures such as optical or mechanical elements for satellites surviving rocket launches, filigree lightweight mirrors, wobbling mirrors, and reticle and wafer stages in microlithography must be guaranteed with low failure probability. Their design requires statistically relevant strength data. The traditional approach using the statistical two-parameter Weibull distribution suffered from two problems. The data sets were too small to obtain distribution parameters with sufficient accuracy and also too small to decide on the validity of the model. This holds especially for the low failure probability levels that are required for reliable applications. Extrapolation to 0.1% failure probability and below led to design strengths so low that higher load applications seemed to be not feasible. New data have been collected with numbers per set large enough to enable tests on the applicability of the three-parameter Weibull distribution. This distribution revealed to provide much better fitting of the data. Moreover it delivers a lower threshold value, which means a minimum value for breakage stress, allowing of removing statistical uncertainty by introducing a deterministic method to calculate design strength. Considerations taken from the theory of fracture mechanics as have been proven to be reliable with proof test qualifications of delicate structures made from brittle materials enable including fatigue due to stress corrosion in a straight forward way. With the formulae derived, either lifetime can be calculated from given stress or allowable stress from minimum required lifetime. The data, distributions, and design strength calculations for several practically relevant surface conditions of ZERODUR are given. The values obtained are significantly higher than those resulting from the two-parameter Weibull distribution approach and no longer subject to statistical uncertainty.

Large-Scale Weibull Analysis of H-451 Nuclear- Grade Graphite Specimen Rupture Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Walker, Andrew; Baker, Eric H.; Murthy, Pappu L.; Bratton, Robert L.

2012-01-01

A Weibull analysis was performed of the strength distribution and size effects for 2000 specimens of H-451 nuclear-grade graphite. The data, generated elsewhere, measured the tensile and four-point-flexure room-temperature rupture strength of specimens excised from a single extruded graphite log. Strength variation was compared with specimen location, size, and orientation relative to the parent body. In our study, data were progressively and extensively pooled into larger data sets to discriminate overall trends from local variations and to investigate the strength distribution. The CARES/Life and WeibPar codes were used to investigate issues regarding the size effect, Weibull parameter consistency, and nonlinear stress-strain response. Overall, the Weibull distribution described the behavior of the pooled data very well. However, the issue regarding the smaller-than-expected size effect remained. This exercise illustrated that a conservative approach using a two-parameter Weibull distribution is best for designing graphite components with low probability of failure for the in-core structures in the proposed Generation IV (Gen IV) high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. This exercise also demonstrated the continuing need to better understand the mechanisms driving stochastic strength response. Extensive appendixes are provided with this report to show all aspects of the rupture data and analytical results.

ZERODUR strength modeling with Weibull statistical distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2016-07-01

The decisive influence on breakage strength of brittle materials such as the low expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR is the surface condition. For polished or etched surfaces it is essential if micro cracks are present and how deep they are. Ground surfaces have many micro cracks caused by the generation process. Here only the depths of the micro cracks are relevant. In any case presence and depths of micro cracks are statistical by nature. The Weibull distribution is the model used traditionally for the representation of such data sets. It is based on the weakest link ansatz. The use of the two or three parameter Weibull distribution for data representation and reliability prediction depends on the underlying crack generation mechanisms. Before choosing the model for a specific evaluation, some checks should be done. Is there only one mechanism present or is it to be expected that an additional mechanism might contribute deviating results? For ground surfaces the main mechanism is the diamond grains' action on the surface. However, grains breaking from their bonding might be moved by the tool across the surface introducing a slightly deeper crack. It is not to be expected that these scratches follow the same statistical distribution as the grinding process. Hence, their description with the same distribution parameters is not adequate. Before including them a dedicated discussion should be performed. If there is additional information available influencing the selection of the model, for example the existence of a maximum crack depth, this should be taken into account also. Micro cracks introduced by small diamond grains on tools working with limited forces cannot be arbitrarily deep. For data obtained with such surfaces the existence of a threshold breakage stress should be part of the hypothesis. This leads to the use of the three parameter Weibull distribution. A differentiation based on the data set alone without preexisting information is possible but requires a large data set. With only 20 specimens per sample such differentiation is not possible. This requires 100 specimens per set, the more the better. The validity of the statistical evaluation methods is discussed with several examples. These considerations are of special importance because of their consequences on the prognosis methods and results. Especially the use of the two parameter Weibull distribution for high strength surfaces has led to non-realistic results. Extrapolation down to low acceptable probability of failure covers a wide range without data points existing and is mainly influenced by the slope determined by the high strength specimens. In the past this misconception has prevented the use of brittle materials for stress loads, which they could have endured easily.

Testing homogeneity in Weibull-regression models.

PubMed

Bolfarine, Heleno; Valença, Dione M

2005-10-01

In survival studies with families or geographical units it may be of interest testing whether such groups are homogeneous for given explanatory variables. In this paper we consider score type tests for group homogeneity based on a mixing model in which the group effect is modelled as a random variable. As opposed to hazard-based frailty models, this model presents survival times that conditioned on the random effect, has an accelerated failure time representation. The test statistics requires only estimation of the conventional regression model without the random effect and does not require specifying the distribution of the random effect. The tests are derived for a Weibull regression model and in the uncensored situation, a closed form is obtained for the test statistic. A simulation study is used for comparing the power of the tests. The proposed tests are applied to real data sets with censored data.

Weibull mixture regression for marginal inference in zero-heavy continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Gebregziabher, Mulugeta; Voronca, Delia; Teklehaimanot, Abeba; Santa Ana, Elizabeth J

2017-06-01

Continuous outcomes with preponderance of zero values are ubiquitous in data that arise from biomedical studies, for example studies of addictive disorders. This is known to lead to violation of standard assumptions in parametric inference and enhances the risk of misleading conclusions unless managed properly. Two-part models are commonly used to deal with this problem. However, standard two-part models have limitations with respect to obtaining parameter estimates that have marginal interpretation of covariate effects which are important in many biomedical applications. Recently marginalized two-part models are proposed but their development is limited to log-normal and log-skew-normal distributions. Thus, in this paper, we propose a finite mixture approach, with Weibull mixture regression as a special case, to deal with the problem. We use extensive simulation study to assess the performance of the proposed model in finite samples and to make comparisons with other family of models via statistical information and mean squared error criteria. We demonstrate its application on real data from a randomized controlled trial of addictive disorders. Our results show that a two-component Weibull mixture model is preferred for modeling zero-heavy continuous data when the non-zero part are simulated from Weibull or similar distributions such as Gamma or truncated Gauss.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2008-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Hendricks, Robert C.

2012-01-01

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Development of Testing Methodologies for the Mechanical Properties of MEMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate and design testing strategies to determine the mechanical properties of MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) as well as investigate the development of a MEMS Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM). One item of potential interest is the design of a test for the Weibull size effect in pressure membranes. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. However, the primary area of investigation will most likely be analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. This will be a continuation of the previous years work. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads.

Pharmaceutical Evaluation of Cefuroxime Axetil Tablets Available in Drug Market of Pakistan

PubMed Central

Israr, F.; Mahmood, Z. A.; Hassan, F.; Hasan, S. M. F.

2016-01-01

Cefuroxime is a second generation cephalosporin antibiotic with a broad spectrum activity against Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria. The purpose of this research work was to evaluate the pharmaceutical quality standards of four different brands of cefuroxime axetil 125 mg tablets with different price ranges purchased from retail pharmacies of Pakistan. The brands were tested for physicochemical evaluation and in vitro dissolution studies in different medium like 0.07N HCl, distilled water, 0.1N HCl of pH 1.2 and phosphate buffers of pH 4.5 and pH 6.8. Statistical analysis, model dependent (zero order, first order, Korsmeyer-Peppas, Hixson-Crowell, Weibull) and model independent (Difference f1, similarity f2) approaches were applied to multiple dissolution profile of all brands. All brands were found to be similar with reference and meeting the compendial quality standard. Inter brand variation was observed in disintegration time and assay which was resulted in significant differences (P<0.05) in drug release data and Weibull was observed as best fill model. PMID:27168677

Strength of a Ceramic Sectored Flexure Specimen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, Andrew A; Duffy, Stephen F; Baker, E. H.

2008-01-01

A new test specimen, defined here as the "sectored flexure strength specimen", was developed to measure the strength of ceramic tubes specifically for circumstances when flaws located at the tube's outer diameter are the strength-limiter and subjected to axial tension. The understanding of such strength-limitation is relevant for when ceramic tubes are subjected to bending or when the internal temperature is hotter than the tube's exterior (e.g., heat exchangers). The specimen is both economically and statistically attractive because eight specimens (eight in the case of this project - but the user is not necessarily limited to eight) were extracted outmore » of each length of tube. An analytic expression for maximum or failure stress, and relationships portraying effective area and effective volume as a function of Weibull modulus were developed. Lastly, it was proven from the testing of two ceramics that the sectored flexure specimen was very effective at producing failures caused by strength-limiting flaws located on the tube's original outer diameter. Keywords: ceramics, strength, sectored flexure specimen, effective area, effective volume, finite-element analysis, Weibull distribution, and fractography.« less

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

ZERODUR - bending strength: review of achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter

2017-08-01

Increased demand for using the glass ceramic ZERODUR® with high mechanical loads called for strength data based on larger statistical samples. Design calculations for failure probability target value below 1: 100 000 cannot be made reliable with parameters derived from 20 specimen samples. The data now available for a variety of surface conditions, ground with different grain sizes and acid etched for full micro crack removal, allow stresses by factors four to ten times higher than before. The large sample revealed that breakage stresses of ground surfaces follow the three parameter Weibull distribution instead of the two parameter version. This is more reasonable considering that the micro cracks of such surfaces have a maximum depth which is reflected in the existence of a threshold breakage stress below which breakage probability is zero. This minimum strength allows calculating minimum lifetimes. Fatigue under load can be taken into account by using the stress corrosion coefficient for the actual environmental humidity. For fully etched surfaces Weibull statistics fails. The precondition of the Weibull distribution, the existence of one unique failure mechanism, is not given anymore. ZERODUR® with fully etched surfaces free from damages introduced after etching endures easily 100 MPa tensile stress. The possibility to use ZERODUR® for combined high precision and high stress application was confirmed by the successful launch and continuing operation of LISA Pathfinder the precursor experiment for the gravitational wave antenna satellite array eLISA.

Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

PubMed Central

Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

2016-01-01

Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

Rolling-Element Fatigue Testing and Data Analysis - A Tutorial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2011-01-01

In order to rank bearing materials, lubricants and other design variables using rolling-element bench type fatigue testing of bearing components and full-scale rolling-element bearing tests, the investigator needs to be cognizant of the variables that affect rolling-element fatigue life and be able to maintain and control them within an acceptable experimental tolerance. Once these variables are controlled, the number of tests and the test conditions must be specified to assure reasonable statistical certainty of the final results. There is a reasonable correlation between the results from elemental test rigs with those results obtained with full-scale bearings. Using the statistical methods of W. Weibull and L. Johnson, the minimum number of tests required can be determined. This paper brings together and discusses the technical aspects of rolling-element fatigue testing and data analysis as well as making recommendations to assure quality and reliable testing of rolling-element specimens and full-scale rolling-element bearings.

Rolling-Bearing Service Life Based on Probable Cause for Removal: A Tutorial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Branzai, Emanuel V.

2017-01-01

In 1947 and 1952, Gustaf Lundberg and Arvid Palmgren developed what is now referred to as the Lundberg-Palmgren Model for Rolling Bearing Life Prediction based on classical rolling-element fatigue. Today, bearing fatigue probably accounts for less than 5 percent of bearings removed from service for cause. A bearing service life prediction methodology and tutorial indexed to eight probable causes for bearing removal, including fatigue, are presented, which incorporate strict series reliability; Weibull statistical analysis; available published field data from the Naval Air Rework Facility; and 224,000 rolling-element bearings removed for rework from commercial aircraft engines.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, E V; Poplawski, J. V.; Miller, C. R.

2000-01-01

Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

Recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piegari, Ester; Di Maio, Rosa; Avella, Adolfo

2014-05-01

The recurrence time statistics of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events is analyzed by performing a numerical analysis in the parameter space and estimating Fano factor behaviors. The model is an extended version of the OFC model, which is a paradigm for SOC in non-conserved systems, but it works differently from the original OFC model as a finite value of the driving rate is applied. By driving the system to instability with different rates, the model exhibits a smooth transition from a correlated to an uncorrelated regime as the effect of a change in predominant mechanisms to propagate instability. If the rate at which instability is approached is small, chain processes dominate the landslide dynamics, and power laws govern probability distributions. However, the power-law regime typical of SOC-like systems is found in a range of return intervals that becomes shorter and shorter by increasing the values of the driving rates. Indeed, if the rates at which instability is approached are large, domino processes are no longer active in propagating instability, and large events simply occur because a large number of cells simultaneously reach instability. Such a gradual loss of the effectiveness of the chain propagation mechanism causes the system gradually enter to an uncorrelated regime where recurrence time distributions are characterized by Weibull behaviors. Simulation results are qualitatively compared with those from a recent analysis performed by Witt et al.(Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 35, 1138, 2010) for the first complete databases of landslide occurrences over a period as large as fifty years. From the comparison with the extensive landslide data set, the numerical analysis suggests that statistics of such landslide data seem to be described by a crossover region between a correlated regime and an uncorrelated regime, where recurrence time distributions are characterized by power-law and Weibull behaviors for short and long return times, respectively. Finally, in such a region of the parameter space, clear indications of temporal correlations and clustering by the Fano factor behaviors support, at least in part, the analysis performed by Witt et al. (2010).

Flexural strength and reliability of monolithic and trilayer ceramic structures obtained by the CAD-on technique.

PubMed

Basso, G R; Moraes, R R; Borba, M; Griggs, J A; Della Bona, A

2015-12-01

To evaluate the flexural strength, Weibull modulus, fracture toughness, and failure behavior of ceramic structures obtained by the CAD-on technique, testing the null hypothesis that trilayer structures show similar properties to monolithic structures. Bar-shaped (1.8mm×4mm×16mm) monolithic specimens of zirconia (IPS e.max ZirCAD - Ivoclar Vivadent) and trilayer specimens of zirconia/fusion ceramic/lithium dissilicate (IPS e.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max CAD Crystall./Connect/IPS e.max CAD, Ivoclar Vivadent) were fabricated (n=30). Specimens were tested in flexure in 37°C deionized water using a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 0.5mm/min. Failure loads were recorded, and the flexural strength values were calculated. Fractography principles were used to examine the fracture surfaces under optical and scanning electron microscopy. Data were statistically analyzed using Student's t-test and Weibull statistics (α=0.05). Monolithic and trilayer specimens showed similar mean flexural strengths, characteristic strengths, and Weibull moduli. Trilayer structures showed greater mean critical flaw and fracture toughness values than monolithic specimens (p<0.001). Most critical flaws in the trilayer groups were located on the Y-TZP surface subjected to tension and propagated catastrophically. Trilayer structures showed no flaw deflection at the interface. Considering the CAD-on technique, the trilayer structures showed greater fracture toughness than the monolithic zirconia specimens. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatigue stipulation of bulk-fill composites: An in vitro appraisal.

PubMed

Vidhawan, Shruti A; Yap, Adrian U; Ornaghi, Barbara P; Banas, Agnieszka; Banas, Krzysztof; Neo, Jennifer C; Pfeifer, Carmem S; Rosa, Vinicius

2015-09-01

The aim of this study was to determine the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters of bulk-fill resin based composites. The strength degradation over time of the materials was also assessed by strength-probability-time (SPT) analysis. Three bulk-fill [Tetric EvoCeram Bulk Fill (TBF); X-tra fil (XTR); Filtek Bulk-fill flowable (BFL)] and a conventional one [Filtek Z250 (Z250)] were studied. Seventy five disk-shaped specimens (12mm in diameter and 1mm thick) were prepared by inserting the uncured composites in a stainless steel split mold followed by photoactivation (1200mW/cm(2)/20s) and storage in distilled water (37°C/24h). Degree of conversion was evaluated in five specimens by analysis of FT-IR spectra obtained in the mid-IR region. The SCG parameters n (stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient) and σf0 (scaling parameter) were obtained by testing ten specimens in each of the five stress rates: 10(-2), 10(-1), 10(0), 10(1) and 10(2)MPa/s using a piston-on-three-balls device. Weibull parameter m (Weibull modulus) and σf0 (characteristic strength) were obtained by testing additional 20 specimens at 1MPa/s. Strength-probability-time (SPT) diagrams were constructed by merging SCG and Weibull parameters. BFL and TBF presented higher n values, respectively (40.1 and 25.5). Z250 showed the highest (157.02MPa) and TBF the lowest (110.90MPa) σf0 value. Weibull analysis showed m (Weibull modulus) of 9.7, 8.6, 9.7 and 8.9 for TBF, BFL, XTR and Z250, respectively. SPT diagram for 5% probability of failure showed strength decrease of 18% for BFL, 25% for TBF, 32% for XTR and 36% for Z250, respectively, after 5 years as compared to 1 year. The reliability and decadence of strength over time for bulk-fill resin composites studied are, at least, comparable to conventional composites. BFL shows the highest fatigue resistance under all simulations followed by TBF, while XTR was at par with Z250. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of mixed RF/FSO systems in exponentiated Weibull distributed channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jing; Zhao, Shang-Hong; Zhao, Wei-Hu; Liu, Yun; Li, Xuan

2017-12-01

This paper presented the performances of asymmetric mixed radio frequency (RF)/free-space optical (FSO) system with the amplify-and-forward relaying scheme. The RF channel undergoes Nakagami- m channel, and the Exponentiated Weibull distribution is adopted for the FSO component. The mathematical formulas for cumulative distribution function (CDF), probability density function (PDF) and moment generating function (MGF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are achieved. According to the end-to-end statistical characteristics, the new analytical expressions of outage probability are obtained. Under various modulation techniques, we derive the average bit-error-rate (BER) based on the Meijer's G function. The evaluation and simulation are provided for the system performance, and the aperture average effect is discussed as well.

Statistical Models of Fracture Relevant to Nuclear-Grade Graphite: Review and Recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Bratton, Robert L.

2011-01-01

The nuclear-grade (low-impurity) graphite needed for the fuel element and moderator material for next-generation (Gen IV) reactors displays large scatter in strength and a nonlinear stress-strain response from damage accumulation. This response can be characterized as quasi-brittle. In this expanded review, relevant statistical failure models for various brittle and quasi-brittle material systems are discussed with regard to strength distribution, size effect, multiaxial strength, and damage accumulation. This includes descriptions of the Weibull, Batdorf, and Burchell models as well as models that describe the strength response of composite materials, which involves distributed damage. Results from lattice simulations are included for a physics-based description of material breakdown. Consideration is given to the predicted transition between brittle and quasi-brittle damage behavior versus the density of damage (level of disorder) within the material system. The literature indicates that weakest-link-based failure modeling approaches appear to be reasonably robust in that they can be applied to materials that display distributed damage, provided that the level of disorder in the material is not too large. The Weibull distribution is argued to be the most appropriate statistical distribution to model the stochastic-strength response of graphite.

The effects of simulated bone loss on the implant-abutment assembly and likelihood of fracture: an in vitro study.

PubMed

Manzoor, Behzad; Suleiman, Mahmood; Palmer, Richard M

2013-01-01

The crestal bone level around a dental implant may influence its strength characteristics by offering protection against mechanical failures. Therefore, the present study investigated the effect of simulated bone loss on modes, loads, and cycles to failure in an in vitro model. Different amounts of bone loss were simulated: 0, 1.5, 3.0, and 4.5 mm from the implant head. Forty narrow-diameter (3.0-mm) implant-abutment assemblies were tested using compressive bending and cyclic fatigue testing. Weibull and accelerated life testing analysis were used to assess reliability and functional life. Statistical analyses were performed using the Fisher-Exact test and the Spearman ranked correlation. Compressive bending tests showed that the level of bone loss influenced the load-bearing capacity of implant-abutment assemblies. Fatigue testing showed that the modes, loads, and cycles to failure had a statistically significant relationship with the level of bone loss. All 16 samples with bone loss of 3.0 mm or more experienced horizontal implant body fractures. In contrast, 14 of 16 samples with 0 and 1.5 mm of bone loss showed abutment and screw fractures. Weibull and accelerated life testing analysis indicated a two-group distribution: the 0- and 1.5-mm bone loss samples had better functional life and reliability than the 3.0- and 4.5-mm samples. Progressive bone loss had a significant effect on modes, loads, and cycles to failure. In addition, bone loss influenced the functional life and reliability of the implant-abutment assemblies. Maintaining crestal bone levels is important in ensuring biomechanical sustainability and predictable long-term function of dental implant assemblies.

Statistical modeling of optical attenuation measurements in continental fog conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Muhammad Saeed; Amin, Muhammad; Awan, Muhammad Saleem; Minhas, Abid Ali; Saleem, Jawad; Khan, Rahimdad

2017-03-01

Free-space optics is an innovative technology that uses atmosphere as a propagation medium to provide higher data rates. These links are heavily affected by atmospheric channel mainly because of fog and clouds that act to scatter and even block the modulated beam of light from reaching the receiver end, hence imposing severe attenuation. A comprehensive statistical study of the fog effects and deep physical understanding of the fog phenomena are very important for suggesting improvements (reliability and efficiency) in such communication systems. In this regard, 6-months real-time measured fog attenuation data are considered and statistically investigated. A detailed statistical analysis related to each fog event for that period is presented; the best probability density functions are selected on the basis of Akaike information criterion, while the estimates of unknown parameters are computed by maximum likelihood estimation technique. The results show that most fog attenuation events follow normal mixture distribution and some follow the Weibull distribution.

C-Sphere Strength-Size Scaling in a Bearing-Grade Silicon Nitride

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, Andrew A; Jadaan, Osama M.; Kirkland, Timothy Philip

2008-01-01

A C-sphere specimen geometry was used to determine the failure strength distributions of a commercially available bearing-grade silicon nitride (Si3N4) having ball diameters of 12.7 and 25.4 mm. Strengths for both diameters were determined using the combination of failure load, C sphere geometry, and finite element analysis and fitted using two-parameter Weibull distributions. Effective areas of both diameters were estimated as a function of Weibull modulus and used to explore whether the strength distributions predictably strength-scaled between each size. They did not. That statistical observation suggested that the same flaw type did not limit the strength of both ball diametersmore » indicating a lack of material homogeneity between the two sizes. Optical fractography confirmed that. It showed there were two distinct strength-limiting flaw types in both ball diameters, that one flaw type was always associated with lower strength specimens, and that significantly higher fraction of the 24.5-mm-diameter c-sphere specimens failed from it. Predictable strength-size-scaling would therefore not result as a consequence of this because these flaw types were not homogenously distributed and sampled in both c-sphere geometries.« less

Reliability analysis of component of affination centrifugal 1 machine by using reliability engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, N.; Ginting, E.; Darnello, T.

2017-12-01

Problems that appear in a company that produces refined sugar, the production floor has not reached the level of critical machine availability because it often suffered damage (breakdown). This results in a sudden loss of production time and production opportunities. This problem can be solved by Reliability Engineering method where the statistical approach to historical damage data is performed to see the pattern of the distribution. The method can provide a value of reliability, rate of damage, and availability level, of an machine during the maintenance time interval schedule. The result of distribution test to time inter-damage data (MTTF) flexible hose component is lognormal distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. While from distribution test to mean time of improvement (MTTR) flexible hose component is exponential distribution while component of teflon cone lifthing is weibull distribution. The actual results of the flexible hose component on the replacement schedule per 720 hours obtained reliability of 0.2451 and availability 0.9960. While on the critical components of teflon cone lifthing actual on the replacement schedule per 1944 hours obtained reliability of 0.4083 and availability 0.9927.

Categorical Data Analysis Using a Skewed Weibull Regression Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caron, Renault; Sinha, Debajyoti; Dey, Dipak; Polpo, Adriano

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a Weibull link (skewed) model for categorical response data arising from binomial as well as multinomial model. We show that, for such types of categorical data, the most commonly used models (logit, probit and complementary log-log) can be obtained as limiting cases. We further compare the proposed model with some other asymmetrical models. The Bayesian as well as frequentist estimation procedures for binomial and multinomial data responses are presented in details. The analysis of two data sets to show the efficiency of the proposed model is performed.

Weibull-Based Design Methodology for Rotating Aircraft Engine Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin; Hendricks, Robert C.; Soditus, Sherry

2002-01-01

The NASA Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)-Engine) is used as the basis of a Weibull-based life and reliability analysis. Each component's life and thus the engine's life is defined by high-cycle fatigue (HCF) or low-cycle fatigue (LCF). Knowing the cumulative life distribution of each of the components making up the engine as represented by a Weibull slope is a prerequisite to predicting the life and reliability of the entire engine. As the engine Weibull slope increases, the predicted lives decrease. The predicted engine lives L(sub 5) (95 % probability of survival) of approximately 17,000 and 32,000 hr do correlate with current engine maintenance practices without and with refurbishment. respectively. The individual high pressure turbine (HPT) blade lives necessary to obtain a blade system life L(sub 0.1) (99.9 % probability of survival) of 9000 hr for Weibull slopes of 3, 6 and 9, are 47,391 and 20,652 and 15,658 hr, respectively. For a design life of the HPT disks having probable points of failure equal to or greater than 36,000 hr at a probability of survival of 99.9 %, the predicted disk system life L(sub 0.1) can vary from 9,408 to 24,911 hr.

Layered Manufacturing of Dental Ceramics: Fracture Mechanics, Microstructure, and Elemental Composition of Lithography-Sintered Ceramic.

PubMed

Uçar, Yurdanur; Aysan Meriç, İpek; Ekren, Orhun

2018-02-11

To compare the fracture mechanics, microstructure, and elemental composition of lithography-based ceramic manufacturing with pressing and CAD/CAM. Disc-shaped specimens (16 mm diameter, 1.2 mm thick) were used for mechanical testing (n = 10/group). Biaxial flexural strength of three groups (In-Ceram alumina [ICA], lithography-based alumina, ZirkonZahn) were determined using the "piston on 3-ball" technique as suggested in test Standard ISO-6872. Vickers hardness test was performed. Fracture toughness was calculated using fractography. Results were statistically analyzed using Kruskal-Wallis test followed by Dunnett T3 (α = 0.05). Weibull analysis was conducted. Polished and fracture surface characterization was made using scanning electron microscope (SEM). Energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) was used for elemental analysis. Biaxial flexural strength of ICA, LCM alumina (LCMA), and ZirkonZahn were 147 ± 43 MPa, 490 ± 44 MPa, and 709 ± 94 MPa, respectively, and were statistically different (P ≤ 0.05). The Vickers hardness number of ICA was 850 ± 41, whereas hardness values for LCMA and ZirkonZahn were 1581 ± 144 and 1249 ± 57, respectively, and were statistically different (P ≤ 0.05). A statistically significant difference was found between fracture toughness of ICA (2 ± 0.4 MPa⋅m 1/2 ), LCMA (6.5 ± 1.5 MPa⋅m 1/2 ), and ZirkonZahn (7.7 ± 1 MPa⋅m 1/2 ) (P ≤ 0.05). Weibull modulus was highest for LCMA (m = 11.43) followed by ZirkonZahn (m = 8.16) and ICA (m = 5.21). Unlike LCMA and ZirkonZahn groups, a homogeneous microstructure was not observed for ICA. EDS results supported the SEM images. Within the limitations of this in vitro study, it can be concluded that LCM seems to be a promising technique for final ceramic object manufacturing in dental applications. Both the manufacturing method and the material used should be improved. © 2018 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podeang, Krittaya; Bodhisuwan, Winai

2017-11-01

In this paper, we introduce a general class of lifetime distributions, called the two-sided Topp-Leone generated family of distribution. A special case of new family is the two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution. This distribution used the two-sided Topp-Leone distribution as a generator for the Weibull distribution. The two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution is presented in several shapes of distributions such as decreasing, unimodal, and bimodal which make this distribution more than flexible than the Weibull distribution. Its quantile function is presented. The parameter estimation method by using maximum likelihood estimation is discussed. The proposed distribution is applied to the strength data set, remission times of bladder cancer patients data set and time to failure of turbocharger data set. We compare the proposed distribution to the Topp-Leone Generated Weibull distribution. In conclusion, the two-sided Topp-Leone Weibull distribution performs similarly as the Topp-Leone Generated Weibull distribution in the first and second data sets. However, the proposed distribution can perform better than fit to Topp-Leone Generated Weibull distribution for the other.

Micropatterned Silica Films with Nanohydroxyapatite for Y-TZP Implants.

PubMed

Miranda, R B P; Grenho, L; Carvalho, A; Fernandes, M H; Monteiro, F J; Cesar, P F

2018-03-01

This investigation aimed at developing micropatterned silica thin films (MSTFs) containing nanohydroxyapatite (nano-HA) microaggregates that were not completely covered by silica so that they could directly interact with the surrounding cells. The objectives were 1) to evaluate the effect of the presence of 2 films (MSTF with or without nano-HA addition) on the characteristic strength (σ 0 ) and Weibull modulus ( m) of a yttria-stabilized tetragonal zirconia polycrystal (Y-TZP) and 2) to evaluate the effect of these 2 films, as applied onto the Y-TZP surface, on the morphology, orientation, and proliferation of MG63 cells. Sol-gel process and soft lithography were used to apply the MSTF onto the Y-TZP specimens. Three experimental groups were produced: Y-TZP, Y-TZP + MSTF, and Y-TZP + MSTF + sprayed nano-HA. All surfaces were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and tested for 4-point flexural strength ( n = 30) in water at 37 °C. Weibull analysis was used to determine m and σ 0 (maximum likelihood method). In vitro biological behavior was performed with human osteoblast-like cells (MG63). Y-TZP was successfully coated with MSFT and MSFT + nano-HA. Scanning electron microscopy micrographs indicated that the microaggregates of nano-HA were not entirely covered by the silica. There was no statistically significant difference among the experimental groups for σ 0 and m. In the groups containing the films, the cells were elongated and aligned along the lines. The MSFT + nano-HA group showed significantly higher cell metabolic activity than that obtained for the Y-TZP group at day 7. This investigation was successful in producing an MSTF containing nano-HA microaggregates that remained exposed to the environment. The developed films did not jeopardize the structural reliability of a commercial Y-TZP, as confirmed by the Weibull statistics. The MG63 cells seeded over the films became elongated and aligned along the films' micropatterned lines. Y-TZP specimens coated with MSTF and nano-HA showed a higher cell metabolic activity and proliferation after 7 d of culture when compared with uncoated Y-TZP.

Effect of the microstructure on the lifetime of dental ceramics.

PubMed

Borba, Márcia; de Araújo, Maico D; Fukushima, Karen A; Yoshimura, Humberto N; Cesar, Paulo F; Griggs, Jason A; Della Bona, Alvaro

2011-07-01

To evaluate the effect of the microstructure on the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters and on the lifetime of three ceramics used as framework materials for fixed partial dentures (FPDs) (YZ - Vita In-Ceram YZ; IZ - Vita In-Ceram Zirconia; AL - Vita In-Ceram AL) and of two veneering porcelains (VM7 and VM9). Bar-shaped specimens were fabricated according to the manufacturer's instructions. Specimens were tested in three-point flexure in 37°C artificial saliva. Weibull analysis (n=30) and a constant stress-rate test (n=10) were used to determine the Weibull modulus (m) and SCG coefficient (n), respectively. Microstructural and fractographic analyzes were performed using SEM. ANOVA and Tukey's test (α=0.05) were used to statistically analyze data obtained with both microstructural and fractographic analyzes. YZ and AL presented high crystalline content and low porosity (0.1-0.2%). YZ had the highest characteristic strength (σ(0)) value (911MPa) followed by AL (488MPa) and IZ (423MPa). Lower σ(0) values were observed for the porcelains (68-75MPa). Except for IZ and VM7, m values were similar among the ceramic materials. Higher n values were found for YZ (76) and AL (72), followed by IZ (54) and the veneering materials (36-44). Lifetime predictions showed that YZ was the material with the best mechanical performance. The size of the critical flaw was similar among the framework materials (34-48μm) and among the porcelains (75-86μm). The microstructure influenced the mechanical and SCG behavior of the studied materials and, consequently, the lifetime predictions. Copyright © 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On Weibull's Spectrum of Nonrelativistic Energetic Particles at IP Shocks: Observations and Theoretical Interpretation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pallocchia, G.; Laurenza, M.; Consolini, G.

2017-03-10

Some interplanetary shocks are associated with short-term and sharp particle flux enhancements near the shock front. Such intensity enhancements, known as shock-spike events (SSEs), represent a class of relatively energetic phenomena as they may extend to energies of some tens of MeV or even beyond. Here we present an SSE case study in order to shed light on the nature of the particle acceleration involved in this kind of event. Our observations refer to an SSE registered on 2011 October 3 at 22:23 UT, by STEREO B instrumentation when, at a heliocentric distance of 1.08 au, the spacecraft was sweptmore » by a perpendicular shock moving away from the Sun. The main finding from the data analysis is that a Weibull distribution represents a good fitting function to the measured particle spectrum over the energy range from 0.1 to 30 MeV. To interpret such an observational result, we provide a theoretical derivation of the Weibull spectrum in the framework of the acceleration by “killed” stochastic processes exhibiting power-law growth in time of the velocity expectation, such as the classical Fermi process. We find an overall coherence between the experimental values of the Weibull spectrum parameters and their physical meaning within the above scenario. Hence, our approach based on the Weibull distribution proves to be useful for understanding SSEs. With regard to the present event, we also provide an alternative explanation of the Weibull spectrum in terms of shock-surfing acceleration.« less

Effect of bending on the room-temperature tensile strengths of structural ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, M.G.

1992-01-01

Results for nearly fifty, room-temperature tensile tests conducted on two advanced, monolithic silicon nitride ceramics are evaluated for the effects of bending and application of various Weibull statistical analyses. Two specimen gripping systems (straight collet and tapered collet) were evaluated for both success in producing gage section failures and tendency to minimize bending at failure. Specimen fabrication and grinding technique consderations are briefly reviewed and related to their effects on successful tensile tests. Ultimate tensile strengths are related to the bending measured at specimen failure and the effects of the gripping system on bending are discussed. Finally, comparisons are mademore » between the use of censored and uncensored data sample sets for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the Weibull parameters from the tensile strength distributions.« less

Effect of bending on the room-temperature tensile strengths of structural ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, M.G.

1992-07-01

Results for nearly fifty, room-temperature tensile tests conducted on two advanced, monolithic silicon nitride ceramics are evaluated for the effects of bending and application of various Weibull statistical analyses. Two specimen gripping systems (straight collet and tapered collet) were evaluated for both success in producing gage section failures and tendency to minimize bending at failure. Specimen fabrication and grinding technique consderations are briefly reviewed and related to their effects on successful tensile tests. Ultimate tensile strengths are related to the bending measured at specimen failure and the effects of the gripping system on bending are discussed. Finally, comparisons are mademore » between the use of censored and uncensored data sample sets for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the Weibull parameters from the tensile strength distributions.« less

HPC simulations of grain-scale spallation to improve thermal spallation drilling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, S. D.; Lomov, I.; Wideman, T. W.; Potter, J.

2012-12-01

Thermal spallation drilling and related hard-rock hole opening techniques are transformative technologies with the potential to dramatically reduce the costs associated with EGS well drilling and improve the productivity of new and existing wells. In contrast to conventional drilling methods that employ mechanical means to penetrate rock, thermal spallation methods fragment rock into small pieces ("spalls") without contact via the rapid transmission of heat to the rock surface. State-of-the-art constitutive models of thermal spallation employ Weibull statistical failure theory to represent the relationship between rock heterogeneity and its propensity to produce spalls when heat is applied to the rock surface. These models have been successfully used to predict such factors as penetration rate, spall-size distribution and borehole radius from drilling jet velocity and applied heat flux. A properly calibrated Weibull model would permit design optimization of thermal spallation drilling under geothermal field conditions. However, although useful for predicting system response in a given context, Weibull models are by their nature empirically derived. In the past, the parameters used in these models were carefully determined from laboratory tests, and thus model applicability was limited by experimental scope. This becomes problematic, for example, if simulating spall production at depths relevant for geothermal energy production, or modeling thermal spallation drilling in new rock types. Nevertheless, with sufficient computational resources, Weibull models could be validated in the absence of experimental data by explicit small-scale simulations that fully resolve rock grains. This presentation will discuss how high-fidelity simulations can be used to inform Weibull models of thermal spallation, and what these simulations reveal about the processes driving spallation at the grain-scale - in particular, the role that inter-grain boundaries and micro-pores play in the onset and extent of spallation. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Online-offline activities and game-playing behaviors of avatars in a massive multiplayer online role-playing game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Tan, Qun-Zhao

2009-11-01

Massive multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) are very popular in China, which provides a potential platform for scientific research. We study the online-offline activities of avatars in an MMORPG to understand their game-playing behavior. The statistical analysis unveils that the active avatars can be classified into three types. The avatars of the first type are owned by game cheaters who go online and offline in preset time intervals with the online duration distributions dominated by pulses. The second type of avatars is characterized by a Weibull distribution in the online durations, which is confirmed by statistical tests. The distributions of online durations of the remaining individual avatars differ from the above two types and cannot be described by a simple form. These findings have potential applications in the game industry.

A statistical comparison of two carbon fiber/epoxy fabrication techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodge, A. J.

1991-01-01

A statistical comparison of the compression strengths of specimens that were fabricated by either a platen press or an autoclave were performed on IM6/3501-6 carbon/epoxy composites of 16-ply (0,+45,90,-45)(sub S2) lay-up configuration. The samples were cured with the same parameters and processing materials. It was found that the autoclaved panels were thicker than the platen press cured samples. Two hundred samples of each type of cure process were compression tested. The autoclaved samples had an average strength of 450 MPa (65.5 ksi), while the press cured samples had an average strength of 370 MPa (54.0 ksi). A Weibull analysis of the data showed that there is only a 30 pct. probability that the two types of cure systems yield specimens that can be considered from the same family.

Tensile Strength and Microstructural Characterization of Uncoated and Coated HPZ Ceramic Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.; Wheeler, Donald R.; Dickerson, Robert M.

1996-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received HPZ fiber and those surface coated with BN, BN/SiC, and BN/Si3N4 have been determined at room temperature using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Nominally approx. 0.4 micron BN and 0.2 micron SiC or Si3N4 coatings were deposited on the fibers by chemical vapor deposition using a continuous reactor. The average tensile strength of uncoated HPZ fiber was 2.0 +/- 0.56 GPa (290 +/- 81 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 4.1. For the BN coated fibers, the average strength and the Weibull modulus increased to 2.39 +/- 0.44 GPa (346 +/- 64 ksi) and 6.5, respectively. The HPZ/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 2.0 +/- 0.32 GPa (290 +/- 47 ksi) and Weibull modulus of 7.3. Average strength of the fibers having a dual BN/Si3N4 surface coating degraded to 1.15 +/- 0.26 GPa (166 +/- 38 ksi) with a Weibull modulus of 5.3. The chemical composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were determined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analysis of the fibers and the coatings was carried out by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. A microporous silica-rich layer approx. 200 nm thick is present on the as-received HPZ fiber surface. The BN coatings on the fibers are amorphous to partly turbostratic and contaminated with carbon and oxygen. Silicon carbide coating was crystalline whereas the silicon nitride coating was amorphous. The silicon carbide and silicon nitride coatings are non-stoichiometric, non-uniform, and granular. Within a fiber tow, the fibers on the outside had thicker and more granular coatings than those on the inside.

Mechanical and interfacial characterization of laser welded Co-Cr alloy with different joint configurations

PubMed Central

Kokolis, John; Chakmakchi, Makdad; Theocharopoulos, Antonios; Prombonas, Anthony

2015-01-01

PURPOSE The mechanical and interfacial characterization of laser welded Co-Cr alloy with two different joint designs. MATERIALS AND METHODS Dumbbell cast specimens (n=30) were divided into 3 groups (R, I, K, n=10). Group R consisted of intact specimens, group I of specimens sectioned with a straight cut, and group K of specimens with a 45° bevel made at the one welding edge. The microstructure and the elemental distributions of alloy and welding regions were examined by an SEM/EDX analysis and then specimens were loaded in tension up to fracture. The tensile strength (TS) and elongation (ε) were determined and statistically compared among groups employing 1-way ANOVA, SNK multiple comparison test (α=.05) and Weibull analysis where Weibull modulus m and characteristic strength σο were identified. Fractured surfaces were imaged by a SEM. RESULTS SEM/EDX analysis showed that cast alloy consists of two phases with differences in mean atomic number contrast, while no mean atomic number was identified for welded regions. EDX analysis revealed an increased Cr and Mo content at the alloy-joint interface. All mechanical properties of group I (TS, ε, m and σο) were found inferior to R while group K showed intermediated values without significant differences to R and I, apart from elongation with group R. The fractured surfaces of all groups showed extensive dendritic pattern although with a finer structure in the case of welded groups. CONCLUSION The K shape joint configuration should be preferred over the I, as it demonstrates improved mechanical strength and survival probability. PMID:25722836

Reliability demonstration test for load-sharing systems with exponential and Weibull components

PubMed Central

Hu, Qingpei; Yu, Dan; Xie, Min

2017-01-01

Conducting a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) is a crucial step in production. Products are tested under certain schemes to demonstrate whether their reliability indices reach pre-specified thresholds. Test schemes for RDT have been studied in different situations, e.g., lifetime testing, degradation testing and accelerated testing. Systems designed with several structures are also investigated in many RDT plans. Despite the availability of a range of test plans for different systems, RDT planning for load-sharing systems hasn’t yet received the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a demonstration method for two specific types of load-sharing systems with components subject to two distributions: exponential and Weibull. Based on the assumptions and interpretations made in several previous works on such load-sharing systems, we set the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the total system as the demonstration target. We represent the MTTF as a summation of mean time between successive component failures. Next, we introduce generalized test statistics for both the underlying distributions. Finally, RDT plans for the two types of systems are established on the basis of these test statistics. PMID:29284030

Reliability demonstration test for load-sharing systems with exponential and Weibull components.

PubMed

Xu, Jianyu; Hu, Qingpei; Yu, Dan; Xie, Min

2017-01-01

Conducting a Reliability Demonstration Test (RDT) is a crucial step in production. Products are tested under certain schemes to demonstrate whether their reliability indices reach pre-specified thresholds. Test schemes for RDT have been studied in different situations, e.g., lifetime testing, degradation testing and accelerated testing. Systems designed with several structures are also investigated in many RDT plans. Despite the availability of a range of test plans for different systems, RDT planning for load-sharing systems hasn't yet received the attention it deserves. In this paper, we propose a demonstration method for two specific types of load-sharing systems with components subject to two distributions: exponential and Weibull. Based on the assumptions and interpretations made in several previous works on such load-sharing systems, we set the mean time to failure (MTTF) of the total system as the demonstration target. We represent the MTTF as a summation of mean time between successive component failures. Next, we introduce generalized test statistics for both the underlying distributions. Finally, RDT plans for the two types of systems are established on the basis of these test statistics.

A review and comparison of methods for recreating individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves for economic evaluations: a simulation study.

PubMed

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

A Review and Comparison of Methods for Recreating Individual Patient Data from Published Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves for Economic Evaluations: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

2015-01-01

Background In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. Methods A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. Results All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. Conclusions The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. PMID:25803659

Simulation of parametric model towards the fixed covariate of right censored lung cancer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Ridwan Olaniran, Oyebayo; Enera Amran, Syahila

2017-09-01

In this study, simulation procedure was applied to measure the fixed covariate of right censored data by using parametric survival model. The scale and shape parameter were modified to differentiate the analysis of parametric regression survival model. Statistically, the biases, mean biases and the coverage probability were used in this analysis. Consequently, different sample sizes were employed to distinguish the impact of parametric regression model towards right censored data with 50, 100, 150 and 200 number of sample. R-statistical software was utilised to develop the coding simulation with right censored data. Besides, the final model of right censored simulation was compared with the right censored lung cancer data in Malaysia. It was found that different values of shape and scale parameter with different sample size, help to improve the simulation strategy for right censored data and Weibull regression survival model is suitable fit towards the simulation of survival of lung cancer patients data in Malaysia.

Abutment design for implant-supported indirect composite molar crowns: reliability and fractography.

PubMed

Bonfante, Estevam Augusto; Suzuki, Marcelo; Lubelski, William; Thompson, Van P; de Carvalho, Ricardo Marins; Witek, Lukasz; Coelho, Paulo G

2012-12-01

To investigate the reliability of titanium abutments veneered with indirect composites for implant-supported crowns and the possibility to trace back the fracture origin by qualitative fractographic analysis. Large base (LB) (6.4-mm diameter base, with a 4-mm high cone in the center for composite retention), small base (SB-4) (5.2-mm base, 4-mm high cone), and small base with cone shortened to 2 mm (SB-2) Ti abutments were used. Each abutment received incremental layers of indirect resin composite until completing the anatomy of a maxillary molar crown. Step-stress accelerated-life fatigue testing (n = 18 each) was performed in water. Weibull curves with use stress of 200 N for 50,000 and 100,000 cycles were calculated. Probability Weibull plots examined the differences between groups. Specimens were inspected in light-polarized and scanning electron microscopes for fractographic analysis. Use level probability Weibull plots showed Beta values of 0.27 for LB, 0.32 for SB-4, and 0.26 for SB-2, indicating that failures were not influenced by fatigue and damage accumulation. The data replotted as Weibull distribution showed no significant difference in the characteristic strengths between LB (794 N) and SB-4 abutments (836 N), which were both significantly higher than SB-2 (601 N). Failure mode was cohesive within the composite for all groups. Fractographic markings showed that failures initiated at the indentation area and propagated toward the margins of cohesively failed composite. Reliability was not influenced by abutment design. Qualitative fractographic analysis of the failed indirect composite was feasible. © 2012 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Huarui; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.; Kuball, Martin

2015-01-01

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage "hot spots" at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7-0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which is consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.

On the non-Poissonian repetition pattern of FRB121102

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppermann, Niels; Yu, Hao-Ran; Pen, Ue-Li

2018-04-01

The Fast Radio Burst FRB121102 has been observed to repeat in an irregular fashion. Using published timing data of the observed bursts, we show that Poissonian statistics are not a good description of this random process. As an alternative, we suggest to describe the intervals between bursts with a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter smaller than one, which allows for the clustered nature of the bursts. We quantify the amount of clustering using the parameters of the Weibull distribution and discuss the consequences that it has for the detection probabilities of future observations and for the optimization of observing strategies. Allowing for this generalization, we find a mean repetition rate of r=5.7^{+3.0}_{-2.0} per day and index k=0.34^{+0.06}_{-0.05} for a correlation function ξ(t) = (t/t0)k - 1.

CARES/PC - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szatmary, S. A.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES/PC performs statistical analysis of data obtained from the fracture of simple, uniaxial tensile or flexural specimens and estimates the Weibull and Batdorf material parameters from this data. CARES/PC is a subset of the program CARES (COSMIC program number LEW-15168) which calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of ceramic components utilizing the Batdorf and Weibull models to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. CARES additionally requires that the ceramic structure be modeled by a finite element program such as MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS. The more limited CARES/PC does not perform fast-fracture reliability estimation of components. CARES/PC estimates ceramic material properties from uniaxial tensile or from three- and four-point bend bar data. In general, the parameters are obtained from the fracture stresses of many specimens (30 or more are recommended) whose geometry and loading configurations are held constant. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit tests measure the accuracy of the hypothesis that the fracture data comes from a population with a distribution specified by the estimated Weibull parameters. Ninety-percent confidence intervals on the Weibull parameters and the unbiased value of the shape parameter for complete samples are provided when the maximum likelihood technique is used. CARES/PC is written and compiled with the Microsoft FORTRAN v5.0 compiler using the VAX FORTRAN extensions and dynamic array allocation supported by this compiler for the IBM/MS-DOS or OS/2 operating systems. The dynamic array allocation routines allow the user to match the number of fracture sets and test specimens to the memory available. Machine requirements include IBM PC compatibles with optional math coprocessor. Program output is designed to fit 80-column format printers. Executables for both DOS and OS/2 are provided. CARES/PC is distributed on one 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette in compressed format. The expansion tool PKUNZIP.EXE is supplied on the diskette. CARES/PC was developed in 1990. IBM PC and OS/2 are trademarks of International Business Machines. MS-DOS and MS OS/2 are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation. VAX is a trademark of Digital Equipment Corporation.

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China’s coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40–62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China’s entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters. PMID:26313256

Normal and Extreme Wind Conditions for Power at Coastal Locations in China.

PubMed

Gao, Meng; Ning, Jicai; Wu, Xiaoqing

2015-01-01

In this paper, the normal and extreme wind conditions for power at 12 coastal locations along China's coastline were investigated. For this purpose, the daily meteorological data measured at the standard 10-m height above ground for periods of 40-62 years are statistically analyzed. The East Asian Monsoon that affects almost China's entire coastal region is considered as the leading factor determining wind energy resources. For most stations, the mean wind speed is higher in winter and lower in summer. Meanwhile, the wind direction analysis indicates that the prevalent winds in summer are southerly, while those in winter are northerly. The air densities at different coastal locations differ significantly, resulting in the difference in wind power density. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are applied to fit the yearly wind speeds. The lognormal distribution performs better than the Weibull distribution at 8 coastal stations according to two judgement criteria, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and absolute error (AE). Regarding the annual maximum extreme wind speed, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution performs better than the commonly-used Gumbel distribution. At these southeastern coastal locations, strong winds usually occur in typhoon season. These 4 coastal provinces, that is, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang, which have abundant wind resources, are also prone to typhoon disasters.

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning.

PubMed

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-06-29

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images' spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines.

Least Squares Best Fit Method for the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution: Analysis of Tensile and Bend Specimens with Volume or Surface Flaw Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard

1996-01-01

Material characterization parameters obtained from naturally flawed specimens are necessary for reliability evaluation of non-deterministic advanced ceramic structural components. The least squares best fit method is applied to the three parameter uniaxial Weibull model to obtain the material parameters from experimental tests on volume or surface flawed specimens subjected to pure tension, pure bending, four point or three point loading. Several illustrative example problems are provided.

New methods for estimating parameters of weibull functions to characterize future diameter distributions in forest stands

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

2006-01-01

Diameter distributions in a forest stand have been successfully characterized by use of the Weibull function. Of special interest are cases where parameters of a Weibull distribution that models a future stand are predicted, either directly or indirectly, from current stand density and dominant height. This study evaluated four methods of predicting the Weibull...

Strain-controlled fatigue of acrylic bone cement.

PubMed

Carter, D R; Gates, E I; Harris, W H

1982-09-01

Monotonic tensile tests and tension-compression fatigue tests were conducted of wet acrylic bone cement specimens at 37 degrees C. All testing was conducted in strain control at a strain rate of 0.02/s. Weibull analysis of the tensile tests indicated that monotonic fracture was governed more strongly by strain than stress. The number of cycles to fatigue failure was also more strongly controlled by strain amplitude than stress amplitude. Specimen porosity distribution played a major role in determining the tensile and fatigue strengths. The degree of data scatter suggests that Weibull analysis of fatigue data may be useful in developing design criteria for the surgical use of bone cement.

Characterization of Mechanical Properties of Nuclear Graphite Using Subsize Specimens and Reusing Tested Specimens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ji Hyun, Yoon; Byun, Thak Sang; Strizak, Joe P

2011-01-01

The mechanical properties of NBG-18 nuclear grade graphite have been characterized using small specimen test techniques and statistical treatment on the test results. New fracture strength and toughness test techniques were developed to use subsize cylindrical specimens with glued heads and to reuse their broken halves. Three sets of subsize cylindrical specimens with the different diameters of 4 mm, 8 mm, and 12 mm were tested to obtain tensile fracture strength. The longer piece of the broken halves was cracked from side surfaces and tested under three-point bend loading to obtain fracture toughness. Both the strength and fracture toughness datamore » were analyzed using Weibull distribution models focusing on size effect. The mean fracture strength decreased from 22.9 MPa to 21.5 MPa as the diameter increased from 4 mm to 12 mm, and the mean strength of 15.9 mm diameter standard specimen, 20.9 MPa, was on the extended trend line. These fracture strength data indicate that in the given diameter range the size effect is not significant and much smaller than that predicted by the Weibull statistics-based model. Further, no noticeable size effect existed in the fracture toughness data, whose mean values were in a narrow range of 1.21 1.26 MPa. The Weibull moduli measured for fracture strength and fracture toughness datasets were around 10. It is therefore believed that the small or negligible size effect enables to use the subsize specimens and that the new fracture toughness test method to reuse the broken specimens to help minimize irradiation space and radioactive waste.« less

Mechanical reliability, fatigue strength and survival analysis of new polycrystalline translucent zirconia ceramics for monolithic restorations.

PubMed

Pereira, Gabriel K R; Guilardi, Luís F; Dapieve, Kiara S; Kleverlaan, Cornelis J; Rippe, Marília P; Valandro, Luiz Felipe

2018-05-23

This study characterized the mechanical properties (static and under fatigue), the crystalline microstructure (monoclinic - m, tetragonal - t and cubic - c phase contents) and the surface topography of three yttrium-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) materials with different translucent properties, before and after aging in an autoclave (low temperature degradation). Disc-shaped specimens were produced from second generation (Katana ML/HT - high-translucent) and third generations (Katana STML - super-translucent and UTML - ultra-translucent) YSZ ceramics (Kuraray Noritake Dental Inc.), following ISO 6872-2015 guidelines for biaxial flexural strength testing (final dimensions: 15 mm in diameter and 1.2 ± 0.2 mm in thickness), and then subjected to the respective tests and analyses. ML was mainly composed of tetragonal crystals, while STML and UTML presented cubic content. Aging increased the monoclinic content for ML and did not affect STML and UTML. Topographical analysis highlights different grain sizes on the ceramic surface (UTML > STML > ML) and aging had no effect on this outcome. Weibull analysis showed the highest characteristic strength for ML both before and after aging, and statistically similar Weibull moduli for all groups. ML material also obtained the highest survival rates (ML > STML > UTML) for both fatigue strength and number of cycles to failure. All fractures originated from surface defects on the tensile side. Third generation zirconia (Katana STML and UTML) are fully stabilized materials (with tetragonal and cubic crystals), being totally inert to the autoclave aging, and presented lower mechanical properties than the second-generation zirconia (Katana ML - metastable zirconia). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fracture load and failure analysis of zirconia single crowns veneered with pressed and layered ceramics after chewing simulation.

PubMed

Stawarczyk, Bogna; Ozcan, Mutlu; Roos, Malgorzata; Trottmann, Albert; Hämmerle, Christoph H F

2011-01-01

This study determined the fracture load of zirconia crowns veneered with four overpressed and four layered ceramics after chewing simulation. The veneered zirconia crowns were cemented and subjected to chewing cycling. Subsequently, the specimens were loaded at an angle of 45° in a Universal Testing Machine to determine the fracture load. One-way ANOVA, followed by a post-hoc Scheffé test, t-test and Weibull statistic were performed. Overpressed crowns showed significantly lower fracture load (543-577 N) compared to layered ones (805-1067 N). No statistical difference was found between the fracture loads within the overpressed group. Within the layered groups, LV (1067 N) presented significantly higher results compared to LC (805 N). The mean values of all other groups were not significantly different. Single zirconia crowns veneered with overpressed ceramics exhibited lower fracture load than those of the layered ones after chewing simulation.

Quantitative three-dimensional ice roughness from scanning electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butterfield, Nicholas; Rowe, Penny M.; Stewart, Emily; Roesel, David; Neshyba, Steven

2017-03-01

We present a method for inferring surface morphology of ice from scanning electron microscope images. We first develop a novel functional form for the backscattered electron intensity as a function of ice facet orientation; this form is parameterized using smooth ice facets of known orientation. Three-dimensional representations of rough surfaces are retrieved at approximately micrometer resolution using Gauss-Newton inversion within a Bayesian framework. Statistical analysis of the resulting data sets permits characterization of ice surface roughness with a much higher statistical confidence than previously possible. A survey of results in the range -39°C to -29°C shows that characteristics of the roughness (e.g., Weibull parameters) are sensitive not only to the degree of roughening but also to the symmetry of the roughening. These results suggest that roughening characteristics obtained by remote sensing and in situ measurements of atmospheric ice clouds can potentially provide more facet-specific information than has previously been appreciated.

A Statistics-Based Cracking Criterion of Resin-Bonded Silica Sand for Casting Process Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huimin; Lu, Yan; Ripplinger, Keith; Detwiler, Duane; Luo, Alan A.

2017-02-01

Cracking of sand molds/cores can result in many casting defects such as veining. A robust cracking criterion is needed in casting process simulation for predicting/controlling such defects. A cracking probability map, relating to fracture stress and effective volume, was proposed for resin-bonded silica sand based on Weibull statistics. Three-point bending test results of sand samples were used to generate the cracking map and set up a safety line for cracking criterion. Tensile test results confirmed the accuracy of the safety line for cracking prediction. A laboratory casting experiment was designed and carried out to predict cracking of a cup mold during aluminum casting. The stress-strain behavior and the effective volume of the cup molds were calculated using a finite element analysis code ProCAST®. Furthermore, an energy dispersive spectroscopy fractographic examination of the sand samples confirmed the binder cracking in resin-bonded silica sand.

Scaling of global input-output networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Sai; Qi, Zhengling; Qu, Shen; Zhu, Ji; Chiu, Anthony S. F.; Jia, Xiaoping; Xu, Ming

2016-06-01

Examining scaling patterns of networks can help understand how structural features relate to the behavior of the networks. Input-output networks consist of industries as nodes and inter-industrial exchanges of products as links. Previous studies consider limited measures for node strengths and link weights, and also ignore the impact of dataset choice. We consider a comprehensive set of indicators in this study that are important in economic analysis, and also examine the impact of dataset choice, by studying input-output networks in individual countries and the entire world. Results show that Burr, Log-Logistic, Log-normal, and Weibull distributions can better describe scaling patterns of global input-output networks. We also find that dataset choice has limited impacts on the observed scaling patterns. Our findings can help examine the quality of economic statistics, estimate missing data in economic statistics, and identify key nodes and links in input-output networks to support economic policymaking.

Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

2014-09-01

The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

Inactivation modeling of human enteric virus surrogates, MS2, Qβ, and ΦX174, in water using UVC-LEDs, a novel disinfecting system.

PubMed

Kim, Do-Kyun; Kim, Soo-Ji; Kang, Dong-Hyun

2017-01-01

In order to assure the microbial safety of drinking water, UVC-LED treatment has emerged as a possible technology to replace the use of conventional low pressure (LP) mercury vapor UV lamps. In this investigation, inactivation of Human Enteric Virus (HuEV) surrogates with UVC-LEDs was investigated in a water disinfection system, and kinetic model equations were applied to depict the surviving infectivities of the viruses. MS2, Qβ, and ΦX 174 bacteriophages were inoculated into sterile distilled water (DW) and irradiated with UVC-LED printed circuit boards (PCBs) (266nm and 279nm) or conventional LP lamps. Infectivities of bacteriophages were effectively reduced by up to 7-log after 9mJ/cm 2 treatment for MS2 and Qβ, and 1mJ/cm 2 for ΦX 174. UVC-LEDs showed a superior viral inactivation effect compared to conventional LP lamps at the same dose (1mJ/cm 2 ). Non-log linear plot patterns were observed, so that Weibull, Biphasic, Log linear-tail, and Weibull-tail model equations were used to fit the virus survival curves. For MS2 and Qβ, Weibull and Biphasic models fit well with R 2 values approximately equal to 0.97-0.99, and the Weibull-tail equation accurately described survival of ΦX 174. The level of UV-susceptibility among coliphages measured by the inactivation rate constant, k, was statistically different (ΦX 174 (ssDNA)>MS2, Qβ (ssRNA)), and indicated that sensitivity to UV was attributed to viral genetic material. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of the Weibull function to predict future diameter distributions from current plot data

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao

2012-01-01

The Weibull function has been widely used to characterize diameter distributions in forest stands. The future diameter distribution of a forest stand can be predicted by use of a Weibull probability density function from current inventory data for that stand. The parameter recovery approach has been used to “recover” the Weibull parameters from diameter moments or...

Application of survival analysis methodology to the quantitative analysis of LC-MS proteomics data.

PubMed

Tekwe, Carmen D; Carroll, Raymond J; Dabney, Alan R

2012-08-01

Protein abundance in quantitative proteomics is often based on observed spectral features derived from liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) or LC-MS/MS experiments. Peak intensities are largely non-normal in distribution. Furthermore, LC-MS-based proteomics data frequently have large proportions of missing peak intensities due to censoring mechanisms on low-abundance spectral features. Recognizing that the observed peak intensities detected with the LC-MS method are all positive, skewed and often left-censored, we propose using survival methodology to carry out differential expression analysis of proteins. Various standard statistical techniques including non-parametric tests such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum tests, and the parametric survival model and accelerated failure time-model with log-normal, log-logistic and Weibull distributions were used to detect any differentially expressed proteins. The statistical operating characteristics of each method are explored using both real and simulated datasets. Survival methods generally have greater statistical power than standard differential expression methods when the proportion of missing protein level data is 5% or more. In particular, the AFT models we consider consistently achieve greater statistical power than standard testing procedures, with the discrepancy widening with increasing missingness in the proportions. The testing procedures discussed in this article can all be performed using readily available software such as R. The R codes are provided as supplemental materials. ctekwe@stat.tamu.edu.

Analysis of Weibull Grading Test for Solid Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Weibull grading test is a powerful technique that allows selection and reliability rating of solid tantalum capacitors for military and space applications. However, inaccuracies in the existing method and non-adequate acceleration factors can result in significant, up to three orders of magnitude, errors in the calculated failure rate of capacitors. This paper analyzes deficiencies of the existing technique and recommends more accurate method of calculations. A physical model presenting failures of tantalum capacitors as time-dependent-dielectric-breakdown is used to determine voltage and temperature acceleration factors and select adequate Weibull grading test conditions. This, model is verified by highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperature and voltage conditions for three types of solid chip tantalum capacitors. It is shown that parameters of the model and acceleration factors can be calculated using a general log-linear relationship for the characteristic life with two stress levels.

Hierarchical statistical modeling of xylem vulnerability to cavitation.

PubMed

Ogle, Kiona; Barber, Jarrett J; Willson, Cynthia; Thompson, Brenda

2009-01-01

Cavitation of xylem elements diminishes the water transport capacity of plants, and quantifying xylem vulnerability to cavitation is important to understanding plant function. Current approaches to analyzing hydraulic conductivity (K) data to infer vulnerability to cavitation suffer from problems such as the use of potentially unrealistic vulnerability curves, difficulty interpreting parameters in these curves, a statistical framework that ignores sampling design, and an overly simplistic view of uncertainty. This study illustrates how two common curves (exponential-sigmoid and Weibull) can be reparameterized in terms of meaningful parameters: maximum conductivity (k(sat)), water potential (-P) at which percentage loss of conductivity (PLC) =X% (P(X)), and the slope of the PLC curve at P(X) (S(X)), a 'sensitivity' index. We provide a hierarchical Bayesian method for fitting the reparameterized curves to K(H) data. We illustrate the method using data for roots and stems of two populations of Juniperus scopulorum and test for differences in k(sat), P(X), and S(X) between different groups. Two important results emerge from this study. First, the Weibull model is preferred because it produces biologically realistic estimates of PLC near P = 0 MPa. Second, stochastic embolisms contribute an important source of uncertainty that should be included in such analyses.

Wind energy potential assessment of Cameroon's coastal regions for the installation of an onshore wind farm.

PubMed

Arreyndip, Nkongho Ayuketang; Joseph, Ebobenow; David, Afungchui

2016-11-01

For the future installation of a wind farm in Cameroon, the wind energy potentials of three of Cameroon's coastal cities (Kribi, Douala and Limbe) are assessed using NASA average monthly wind data for 31 years (1983-2013) and compared through Weibull statistics. The Weibull parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood, the mean power densities, the maximum energy carrying wind speeds and the most probable wind speeds are also calculated and compared over these three cities. Finally, the cumulative wind speed distributions over the wet and dry seasons are also analyzed. The results show that the shape and scale parameters for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 2.9 and 2.8, 3.9 and 1.8 and 3.08 and 2.58, respectively. The mean power densities through Weibull analysis for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 33.7 W/m2, 8.0 W/m2 and 25.42 W/m2, respectively. Kribi's most probable wind speed and maximum energy carrying wind speed was found to be 2.42 m/s and 3.35 m/s, 2.27 m/s and 3.03 m/s for Limbe and 1.67 m/s and 2.0 m/s for Douala, respectively. Analysis of the wind speed and hence power distribution over the wet and dry seasons shows that in the wet season, August is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while September is the windiest month for Kribi while in the dry season, March is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while February is the windiest month for Kribi. In terms of mean power density, most probable wind speed and wind speed carrying maximum energy, Kribi shows to be the best site for the installation of a wind farm. Generally, the wind speeds at all three locations seem quite low, average wind speeds of all the three studied locations fall below 4.0m/s which is far below the cut-in wind speed of many modern wind turbines. However we recommend the use of low cut-in speed wind turbines like the Savonius for stand alone low energy needs.

Effect of air-abrasion regimens and fine diamond bur grinding on flexural strength, Weibull modulus and phase transformation of zirconium dioxide.

PubMed

Michida, Silvia Masae de Araújo; Kimpara, Estevão Tomomitsu; dos Santos, Claudinei; Souza, Rodrigo Othavio Assunção; Bottino, Marco Antonio; Özcan, Mutlu

2015-10-16

This study evaluated the effect of air abrasion and polishing regimens on the flexural strength of yttrium stabilized polycrystalline tetragonal zirconia (Y-TZP). From Y-TZP blocks (InCeram 2000 YZ Cubes; Vita Zahnfabrik, Bad Säckingen, Germany) 120 bars (25 mm × 4 mm × 1.2 mm) were obtained according to ISO 6872:2008 and randomly divided into 4 groups: Group C: (control) without surface treatment (n = 30); Group APA: Air abrasion with aluminum oxide (44 µm) (n = 30); Group SC: Silica-coating (CoJet, 30 µm) (n = 30); Group FD: Fine diamond bur (n = 30). Subsequently, all specimens were subjected to 4-point bending test (in distilled water at 37 °C) in a universal testing machine (EMIC DL 1000; São José dos Pinhais, Paraná, Brazil); cross-head speed: 0.5 mm/min). The characteristic strength (σ0) of each specimen was obtained from the flexural strength test and evaluated using Weibull analysis. X-ray diffraction analysis was utilized to quantity the monoclinic phase. The surface topography of specimens was analyzed using 3D optical profilometer and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) after surface conditioning methods. The flexural strength data (σ4p) were statistically analyzed by 1-way ANOVA, Tukey test (α = 0.05) and Weibull (m = modulus, σ0 = characteristic strength) were calculated. The mean ± standard deviations (MPa) of the groups were as follows: C: 1196.2 ± 284.2a; APA: 1369.7 ± 272.3a; SC: 1207.1 ± 229.7a and FD: 874.4 ± 365.4b. The values (m) and (σ0) were as follows: C: 4.5 and 1308.12; APA: 5.9 and 1477.88; SC: 6.0 and 1300.28; and FD: 2.6 and 985.901, respectively. Air particle abrasion with neither silica nor alumina showed significant difference compared to the control group but grinding with fine diamond bur impaired the flexural strength of the zirconia tested.

The effects of surface finish and grain size on the strength of sintered silicon carbide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

You, Y. H.; Kim, Y. W.; Lee, J. G.; Kim, C. H.

1985-01-01

The effects of surface treatment and microstructure, especially abnormal grain growth, on the strength of sintered SiC were studied. The surfaces of sintered SiC were treated with 400, 800 and 1200 grit diamond wheels. Grain growth was induced by increasing the sintering times at 2050 C. The beta to alpha transformation occurred during the sintering of beta-phase starting materials and was often accompanied by abnormal grain growth. The overall strength distributions were established using Weibull statistics. The strength of the sintered SiC is limited by extrinsic surface flaws in normal-sintered specimens. The finer the surface finish and grain size, the higher the strength. But the strength of abnormal sintering specimens is limited by the abnormally grown large tabular grains. The Weibull modulus increases with decreasing grain size and decreasing grit size for grinding.

Size Effect on Specific Energy Distribution in Particle Comminution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yongfu; Wang, Yidong

A theoretical study is made to derive an energy distribution equation for the size reduction process from the fractal model for the particle comminution. Fractal model is employed as a valid measure of the self-similar size distribution of comminution daughter products. The tensile strength of particles varies with particle size in the manner of a power function law. The energy consumption for comminuting single particle is found to be proportional to the 5(D-3)/3rd order of the particle size, D being the fractal dimension of particle comminution daughter. The Weibull statistics is applied to describe the relationship between the breakage probability and specific energy of particle comminution. A simple equation is derived for the breakage probability of particles in view of the dependence of fracture energy on particle size. The calculated exponents and Weibull coefficients are generally in conformity with published data for fracture of particles.

Progressive failure site generation in AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress: Weibull statistics and temperature dependence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Huarui, E-mail: huarui.sun@bristol.ac.uk; Bajo, Miguel Montes; Uren, Michael J.

2015-01-26

Gate leakage degradation of AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors under OFF-state stress is investigated using a combination of electrical, optical, and surface morphology characterizations. The generation of leakage “hot spots” at the edge of the gate is found to be strongly temperature accelerated. The time for the formation of each failure site follows a Weibull distribution with a shape parameter in the range of 0.7–0.9 from room temperature up to 120 °C. The average leakage per failure site is only weakly temperature dependent. The stress-induced structural degradation at the leakage sites exhibits a temperature dependence in the surface morphology, which ismore » consistent with a surface defect generation process involving temperature-associated changes in the breakdown sites.« less

Statistical Paradigm for Organic Optoelectronic Devices: Normal Force Testing for Adhesion of Organic Photovoltaics and Organic Light-Emitting Diodes.

PubMed

Vasilak, Lindsay; Tanu Halim, Silvie M; Das Gupta, Hrishikesh; Yang, Juan; Kamperman, Marleen; Turak, Ayse

2017-04-19

In this study, we assess the utility of a normal force (pull-test) approach to measuring adhesion in organic solar cells and organic light-emitting diodes. This approach is a simple and practical method of monitoring the impact of systematic changes in materials, processing conditions, or environmental exposure on interfacial strength and electrode delamination. The ease of measurement enables a statistical description with numerous samples, variant geometry, and minimal preparation. After examining over 70 samples, using the Weibull modulus and the characteristic breaking strength as metrics, we were able to successfully differentiate the adhesion values between 8-tris(hydroxyquinoline aluminum) (Alq 3 ) and poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) and [6,6]-phenyl C61-butyric acid methyl ester (P3HT:PCBM) interfaces with Al and between two annealing times for the bulk heterojunction polymer blends. Additionally, the Weibull modulus, a relative measure of the range of flaw sizes at the fracture plane, can be correlated with the roughness of the organic surface. Finite element modeling of the delamination process suggests that the out-of-plane elastic modulus for Alq 3 is lower than the reported in-plane elastic values. We suggest a statistical treatment of a large volume of tests be part of the standard protocol for investigating adhesion to accommodate the unavoidable variability in morphology and interfacial structure found in most organic devices.

Reliability and mode of failure of bonded monolithic and multilayer ceramics.

PubMed

Alessandretti, Rodrigo; Borba, Marcia; Benetti, Paula; Corazza, Pedro Henrique; Ribeiro, Raissa; Della Bona, Alvaro

2017-02-01

To evaluate the reliability of monolithic and multilayer ceramic structures used in the CAD-on technique (Ivoclar), and the mode of failure produced in ceramic structures bonded to a dentin analog material (NEMA-G10). Ceramic specimens were fabricated as follows (n=30): CAD-on- trilayer structure (IPS e.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max Crystall./Connect/IPS e.max CAD); YLD- bilayer structure (IPS e.max ZirCAD/IPS e.max Ceram); LDC- monolithic structure (IPS e.max CAD); and YZW- monolithic structure (Zenostar Zr Translucent). All ceramic specimens were bonded to G10 and subjected to compressive load in 37°C distilled water until the sound of the first crack, monitored acoustically. Failure load (L f ) values were recorded (N) and statistically analyzed using Weibull distribution, Kruskal-Wallis test, and Student-Newman-Keuls test (α=0.05). L f values of CAD-on and YZW structures were statistically similar (p=0.917), but higher than YLD and LDC (p<0.01). Weibull modulus (m) values were statistically similar for all experimental groups. Monolithic structures (LDC and YZW) failed from radial cracks. Failures in the CAD-on and YLD groups showed, predominantly, both radial and cone cracks. Monolithic zirconia (YZW) and CAD-on structures showed similar failure resistance and reliability, but a different fracture behavior. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Low-Level Contrast Statistics of Natural Images Can Modulate the Frequency of Event-Related Potentials (ERP) in Humans.

PubMed

Ghodrati, Masoud; Ghodousi, Mahrad; Yoonessi, Ali

2016-01-01

Humans are fast and accurate in categorizing complex natural images. It is, however, unclear what features of visual information are exploited by brain to perceive the images with such speed and accuracy. It has been shown that low-level contrast statistics of natural scenes can explain the variance of amplitude of event-related potentials (ERP) in response to rapidly presented images. In this study, we investigated the effect of these statistics on frequency content of ERPs. We recorded ERPs from human subjects, while they viewed natural images each presented for 70 ms. Our results showed that Weibull contrast statistics, as a biologically plausible model, explained the variance of ERPs the best, compared to other image statistics that we assessed. Our time-frequency analysis revealed a significant correlation between these statistics and ERPs' power within theta frequency band (~3-7 Hz). This is interesting, as theta band is believed to be involved in context updating and semantic encoding. This correlation became significant at ~110 ms after stimulus onset, and peaked at 138 ms. Our results show that not only the amplitude but also the frequency of neural responses can be modulated with low-level contrast statistics of natural images and highlights their potential role in scene perception.

Low-Level Contrast Statistics of Natural Images Can Modulate the Frequency of Event-Related Potentials (ERP) in Humans

PubMed Central

Ghodrati, Masoud; Ghodousi, Mahrad; Yoonessi, Ali

2016-01-01

Humans are fast and accurate in categorizing complex natural images. It is, however, unclear what features of visual information are exploited by brain to perceive the images with such speed and accuracy. It has been shown that low-level contrast statistics of natural scenes can explain the variance of amplitude of event-related potentials (ERP) in response to rapidly presented images. In this study, we investigated the effect of these statistics on frequency content of ERPs. We recorded ERPs from human subjects, while they viewed natural images each presented for 70 ms. Our results showed that Weibull contrast statistics, as a biologically plausible model, explained the variance of ERPs the best, compared to other image statistics that we assessed. Our time-frequency analysis revealed a significant correlation between these statistics and ERPs' power within theta frequency band (~3–7 Hz). This is interesting, as theta band is believed to be involved in context updating and semantic encoding. This correlation became significant at ~110 ms after stimulus onset, and peaked at 138 ms. Our results show that not only the amplitude but also the frequency of neural responses can be modulated with low-level contrast statistics of natural images and highlights their potential role in scene perception. PMID:28018197

An EOQ model for weibull distribution deterioration with time-dependent cubic demand and backlogging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model with weibull deterioration and time dependent cubic demand rate where holding costs as a linear function of time. Shortages are allowed in the inventory system are partially and fully backlogging. The objective of this model is to minimize the total inventory cost by using the optimal order quantity and the cycle length. The proposed model is illustrated by numerical examples and the sensitivity analysis is performed to study the effect of changes in parameters on the optimum solutions.

Failure rate and reliability of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator in surface limestone mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harish Kumar N., S.; Choudhary, R. P.; Murthy, Ch. S. N.

2018-04-01

The model with failure rate function of bathtub-shaped is helpful in reliability analysis of any system and particularly in reliability associated privative maintenance. The usual Weibull distribution is, however, not capable to model the complete lifecycle of the any with a bathtub-shaped failure rate function. In this paper, failure rate and reliability analysis of the KOMATSU hydraulic excavator/shovel in surface mine is presented and also to improve the reliability and decrease the failure rate of each subsystem of the shovel based on the preventive maintenance. The model of the bathtub-shaped for shovel can also be seen as a simplification of the Weibull distribution.

A criterion for establishing life limits. [for Space Shuttle Main Engine service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skopp, G. H.; Porter, A. A.

1990-01-01

The development of a rigorous statistical method that would utilize hardware-demonstrated reliability to evaluate hardware capability and provide ground rules for safe flight margin is discussed. A statistical-based method using the Weibull/Weibayes cumulative distribution function is described. Its advantages and inadequacies are pointed out. Another, more advanced procedure, Single Flight Reliability (SFR), determines a life limit which ensures that the reliability of any single flight is never less than a stipulated value at a stipulated confidence level. Application of the SFR method is illustrated.

Effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength and probability to fracture of Y-TZP zirconia ceramics for all-ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Siarampi, Eleni; Kontonasaki, Eleana; Andrikopoulos, Konstantinos S; Kantiranis, Nikolaos; Voyiatzis, George A; Zorba, Triantafillia; Paraskevopoulos, Konstantinos M; Koidis, Petros

2014-12-01

Dental zirconia restorations should present long-term clinical survival and be in service within the oral environment for many years. However, low temperature degradation could affect their mechanical properties and survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of in vitro aging on the flexural strength of yttrium-stabilized (Y-TZP) zirconia ceramics for ceramic restorations. One hundred twenty bar-shaped specimens were prepared from two ceramics (ZENO Zr (WI) and IPS e.max(®) ZirCAD (IV)), and loaded until fracture according to ISO 6872. The specimens from each ceramic (nx=60) were divided in three groups (control, aged for 5h, aged for 10h). One-way ANOVA was used to assess statistically significant differences among flexural strength values (P<0.05). The variability of the flexural strength values was analyzed using the two-parameter Weibull distribution function, which was applied for the estimation of Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ0). The crystalline phase polymorphs of the materials (tetragonal, t, and monoclinic, m, zirconia) were investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, Raman spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. A slight increase of the flexural strength after 5h, and a decrease after 10h of aging, was recorded for both ceramics, however statistically significant was for the WI group (P<0.05). Both ceramics presented a t→m phase transformation, with the m-phase increasing from 4 to 5% at 5h to around 15% after 10h. The significant reduction of the flexural strength after 10h of in vitro aging, suggests high fracture probability for one of the zirconia ceramics tested. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Argonne National Laboratory Li-alloy/FeS cell testing and R and D programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.

1982-01-01

Groups of 12 or more identical Li-alloy/FeS cells fabricated by Eagle-Picher Industries, Inc. and Gould Inc. were operated at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the status cell test program to obtain data for statistical analysis of cell cycle life and failure modes. The cells were full-size electric vehicle battery cells (150 to 350 Ah capacity) and they were cycled at the 4-h discharge rate and 8-h charge rate. The end of life was defined as a 20% loss of capacity or a decrease in the coulombic efficiency to less than 95%. Seventy-four cells (six groups of identical cells) were cycle-lifemore » tested and the results were analyzed statistically. The ultimate goal of this analysis was to predict cell and battery reliability. Testing of groups of identical cells also provided a means of identifying common failure modes which were eliminated by cell design changes. Mean time to failure (MTTF) for the cells based on the Weibull distribution is presented.« less

Competing risk models in reliability systems, an exponential distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iskandar, I.

2018-03-01

The exponential distribution is the most widely used reliability analysis. This distribution is very suitable for representing the lengths of life of many cases and is available in a simple statistical form. The characteristic of this distribution is a constant hazard rate. The exponential distribution is the lower rank of the Weibull distributions. In this paper our effort is to introduce the basic notions that constitute an exponential competing risks model in reliability analysis using Bayesian analysis approach and presenting their analytic methods. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure. A non-informative prior distribution is used in our analysis. This model describes the likelihood function and follows with the description of the posterior function and the estimations of the point, interval, hazard function, and reliability. The net probability of failure if only one specific risk is present, crude probability of failure due to a specific risk in the presence of other causes, and partial crude probabilities are also included.

A constitutive law for continuous fiber reinforced brittle matrix composites with fiber fragmentation and stress recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumeister, Jonas M.

1993-08-01

THE TENSILE BEHAVIOR of a brittle matrix composite is studied for post matrix crack saturation conditions. Scatter of fiber strength following the Weibull distribution as well as the influence of the major microstructural variables is considered. The stress in a fiber is assumed to recover linearly around a failure due to a fiber-matrix interface behavior mainly ruled by friction. The constitutive behavior for such a composite is analysed. Results are given for a simplified and a refined approximate description and compared with an analysis resulting from the exact analytical theory of fiber fragmentation. It is shown that the stress-strain relation for the refined model excellently follows the exact solution and gives the location of the maximum to within 1% in both stress and strain; for most materials the agreement is even better. Also it is shown that all relations can be normalized to depend on only two variables; a stress reference and the Weibull exponent. For systems with low scatter in fiber strength the simplified model is sufficient to determine the stress maximum but not the postcritical behavior. In addition, the simplified model gives explicit analytical expressions for the maximum stress and corresponding strain. None of the models contain any volume dependence or statistical scatter, but the maximum stress given by the stress-strain relation constitutes an upper bound for the ultimate tensile strength of the composite.

Quality-Related Monitoring and Grading of Granulated Products by Weibull-Distribution Modeling of Visual Images with Semi-Supervised Learning

PubMed Central

Liu, Jinping; Tang, Zhaohui; Xu, Pengfei; Liu, Wenzhong; Zhang, Jin; Zhu, Jianyong

2016-01-01

The topic of online product quality inspection (OPQI) with smart visual sensors is attracting increasing interest in both the academic and industrial communities on account of the natural connection between the visual appearance of products with their underlying qualities. Visual images captured from granulated products (GPs), e.g., cereal products, fabric textiles, are comprised of a large number of independent particles or stochastically stacking locally homogeneous fragments, whose analysis and understanding remains challenging. A method of image statistical modeling-based OPQI for GP quality grading and monitoring by a Weibull distribution(WD) model with a semi-supervised learning classifier is presented. WD-model parameters (WD-MPs) of GP images’ spatial structures, obtained with omnidirectional Gaussian derivative filtering (OGDF), which were demonstrated theoretically to obey a specific WD model of integral form, were extracted as the visual features. Then, a co-training-style semi-supervised classifier algorithm, named COSC-Boosting, was exploited for semi-supervised GP quality grading, by integrating two independent classifiers with complementary nature in the face of scarce labeled samples. Effectiveness of the proposed OPQI method was verified and compared in the field of automated rice quality grading with commonly-used methods and showed superior performance, which lays a foundation for the quality control of GP on assembly lines. PMID:27367703

Effect of Roller Profile on Cylindrical Roller Bearing Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poplawski, Joseph V.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Peters, Steven M.

2000-01-01

Four roller profiles used in cylindrical roller bearing design and manufacture were analyzed using both a closed form solution and finite element analysis (FEA) for stress and life. The roller profiles analyzed were flat, tapered end, aerospace, and fully crowned loaded against a flat raceway. Four rolling-element bearing life models were chosen for this analysis and compared. These were those of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky. The flat roller profile without edge loading has the longest predicted life. However, edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The end tapered profile produced the highest lives but not significantly different than the aerospace profile. The fully crowned profile produces the lowest lives. The resultant predicted life at each stress condition not only depends on the life equation used but also on the Weibull slope assumed. For Weibull slopes of 1.5 and 2, both Lundberg-Palmgren and Iaonnides-Harris equations predict lower lives than the ANSI/ABMAJISO standards. Based upon the Hertz stresses for line contact, the accepted load-life exponent of 10/3 results in a maximum Hertz stress-life exponent equal to 6.6. This value is inconsistent with that experienced in the field.

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of oxidation on fatigue crack nucleation life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshida, Y.; Liu, H. W.

1988-01-01

The effects of preoxidation on subsequent fatigue life were studied. Surface oxidation and grain boundary oxidation of a nickel-base superalloy (TAZ-8A) were studied at 600 to 1000 C for 10 to 1000 hours in air. Surface oxides were identified and the kinetics of surface oxidation was discussed. Grain boundary oxide penetration and morphology were studied. Pancake type grain boundary oxide penetrates deeper and its size is larger, therefore, it is more detrimental to fatigue life than cone-type grain boundary oxide. Oxide penetration depth, a (sub m), is related to oxidation temperature, T, and exposure time, t, by an empirical relation of the Arrhenius type. Effects of T and t on statistical variation of a (sub m) were analyzed according to the Weibull distribution function. Once the oxide is cracked, it serves as a fatigue crack nucleus. Statistical variation of the remaining fatigue life, after the formation of an oxide crack of a critical length, is related directly to the statistical variation of grain boundary oxide penetration depth.

Grain boundary oxidation and an analysis of the effects of pre-oxidation on subsequent fatigue life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshida, Y.; Liu, H. W.

1986-01-01

The effects of preoxidation on subsequent fatigue life were studied. Surface oxidation and grain boundary oxidation of a nickel-base superalloy (TAZ-8A) were studied at 600 to 1000 C for 10 to 1000 hours in air. Surface oxides were identified and the kinetics of surface oxidation was discussed. Grain boundary oxide penetration and morphology were studied. Pancake type grain boundary oxide penetrates deeper and its size is larger, therefore, it is more detrimental to fatigue life than cone-type grain boundary oxide. Oxide penetration depth, a (sub m), is related to oxidation temperature, T, and exposure time, t, by an empirical relation of the Arrhenius type. Effects of T and t on statistical variation of a (sub m) were analyzed according to the Weibull distribution function. Once the oxide is cracked, it serves as a fatigue crack nucleus. Statistical variation of the remaining fatigue life, after the formation of an oxide crack of a critical length, is related directly to the statistical variation of grain boundary oxide penetration depth.

Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Furbish, David; Schmeeckle, Mark; Schumer, Rina; Fathel, Siobhan

2016-01-01

We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of the implications of the similarity between the Gibbs entropy in statistical mechanics and the Shannon entropy in information theory. By maximizing the information entropy of a distribution subject to known constraints on its moments, our choice of the form of the distribution is unbiased. The analysis suggests that particle velocities and travel times are exponentially distributed and that particle accelerations follow a Laplace distribution with zero mean. Particle hop distances, viewed alone, ought to be distributed exponentially. However, the covariance between hop distances and travel times precludes this result. Instead, the covariance structure suggests that hop distances follow a Weibull distribution. These distributions are consistent with high-resolution measurements obtained from high-speed imaging of bed load particle motions. The analysis brings us closer to choosing distributions based on our mechanical insight.

Mechanical behavior of a Y-TZP ceramic for monolithic restorations: effect of grinding and low-temperature aging.

PubMed

Pereira, G K R; Silvestri, T; Camargo, R; Rippe, M P; Amaral, M; Kleverlaan, C J; Valandro, L F

2016-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of grinding with diamond burs and low-temperature aging on the mechanical behavior (biaxial flexural strength and structural reliability), surface topography, and phase transformation of a Y-TZP ceramic for monolithic dental restorations. Disc-shaped specimens (Zirlux FC, Ivoclar Vivadent) were manufactured according to ISO 6872 (2008) and divided in accordance with two factors: "grinding - 3 levels" and "LTD - 2 levels". Grinding was performed using a contra-angle handpiece under constant water-cooling with different grit-sizes (extra-fine and coarse diamond burs). LTD was simulated in an autoclave at 134°C, under a pressure of 2 bar, over a period of 20h. Surface topography analysis showed an increase in roughness based on surface treatment grit-size (Coarse>Xfine>Ctrl), LTD did not influence roughness values. Both grinding and LTD promoted an increase in the amount of m-phase, although different susceptibilities to degradation were observed. According to existing literature the increase of m-phase content is a direct indicative of Y-TZP degradation. Weibull analysis showed an increase in characteristic strength after grinding (Coarse=Xfine>Ctrl), while for LTD, distinct effects were observed (Ctrl

Analysis of survival in breast cancer patients by using different parametric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enera Amran, Syahila; Asrul Afendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti

2017-09-01

In biomedical applications or clinical trials, right censoring was often arising when studying the time to event data. In this case, some individuals are still alive at the end of the study or lost to follow up at a certain time. It is an important issue to handle the censoring data in order to prevent any bias information in the analysis. Therefore, this study was carried out to analyze the right censoring data with three different parametric models; exponential model, Weibull model and log-logistic models. Data of breast cancer patients from Hospital Sultan Ismail, Johor Bahru from 30 December 2008 until 15 February 2017 was used in this study to illustrate the right censoring data. Besides, the covariates included in this study are the time of breast cancer infection patients survive t, age of each patients X1 and treatment given to the patients X2 . In order to determine the best parametric models in analysing survival of breast cancer patients, the performance of each model was compare based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and log-likelihood value using statistical software R. When analysing the breast cancer data, all three distributions were shown consistency of data with the line graph of cumulative hazard function resembles a straight line going through the origin. As the result, log-logistic model was the best fitted parametric model compared with exponential and Weibull model since it has the smallest value in AIC and BIC, also the biggest value in log-likelihood.

The effect of mis-specification on mean and selection between the Weibull and lognormal models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xiang; Nadarajah, Saralees; Guo, Bo

2018-02-01

The lognormal and Weibull models are commonly used to analyse data. Although selection procedures have been extensively studied, it is possible that the lognormal model could be selected when the true model is Weibull or vice versa. As the mean is important in applications, we focus on the effect of mis-specification on mean. The effect on lognormal mean is first considered if the lognormal sample is wrongly fitted by a Weibull model. The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) and quasi-MLE (QMLE) of lognormal mean are obtained based on lognormal and Weibull models. Then, the impact is evaluated by computing ratio of biases and ratio of mean squared errors (MSEs) between MLE and QMLE. For completeness, the theoretical results are demonstrated by simulation studies. Next, the effect of the reverse mis-specification on Weibull mean is discussed. It is found that the ratio of biases and the ratio of MSEs are independent of the location and scale parameters of the lognormal and Weibull models. The influence could be ignored if some special conditions hold. Finally, a model selection method is proposed by comparing ratios concerning biases and MSEs. We also present a published data to illustrate the study in this paper.

Integrating GLL-Weibull Distribution Within a Bayesian Framework for Life Prediction of Shape Memory Alloy Spring Undergoing Thermo-mechanical Fatigue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundu, Pradeep; Nath, Tameshwer; Palani, I. A.; Lad, Bhupesh K.

2018-06-01

The present paper tackles an important but unmapped problem of the reliability estimations of smart materials. First, an experimental setup is developed for accelerated life testing of the shape memory alloy (SMA) springs. Generalized log-linear Weibull (GLL-Weibull) distribution-based novel approach is then developed for SMA spring life estimation. Applied stimulus (voltage), elongation and cycles of operation are used as inputs for the life prediction model. The values of the parameter coefficients of the model provide better interpretability compared to artificial intelligence based life prediction approaches. In addition, the model also considers the effect of operating conditions, making it generic for a range of the operating conditions. Moreover, a Bayesian framework is used to continuously update the prediction with the actual degradation value of the springs, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the data and improving the prediction accuracy. In addition, the deterioration of material with number of cycles is also investigated using thermogravimetric analysis and scanning electron microscopy.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. C.; Wimmer, J. M.; Huang, H. H.; Rorabaugh, M. E.; Schienle, J.; Styhr, K. H.

1985-01-01

The AiResearch Casting Company baseline silicon nitride (92 percent GTE SN-502 Si sub 3 N sub 4 plus 6 percent Y sub 2 O sub 3 plus 2 percent Al sub 2 O sub 3) was characterized with methods that included chemical analysis, oxygen content determination, electrophoresis, particle size distribution analysis, surface area determination, and analysis of the degree of agglomeration and maximum particle size of elutriated powder. Test bars were injection molded and processed through sintering at 0.68 MPa (100 psi) of nitrogen. The as-sintered test bars were evaluated by X-ray phase analysis, room and elevated temperature modulus of rupture strength, Weibull modulus, stress rupture, strength after oxidation, fracture origins, microstructure, and density from quantities of samples sufficiently large to generate statistically valid results. A series of small test matrices were conducted to study the effects and interactions of processing parameters which included raw materials, binder systems, binder removal cycles, injection molding temperatures, particle size distribution, sintering additives, and sintering cycle parameters.

Fiber Breakage Model for Carbon Composite Stress Rupture Phenomenon: Theoretical Development and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie

2010-01-01

Stress rupture failure of Carbon Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) is of serious concern to Science Mission and Constellation programs since there are a number of COPVs on board space vehicles with stored gases under high pressure for long durations of time. It has become customary to establish the reliability of these vessels using the so called classic models. The classical models are based on Weibull statistics fitted to observed stress rupture data. These stochastic models cannot account for any additional damage due to the complex pressure-time histories characteristic of COPVs being supplied for NASA missions. In particular, it is suspected that the effects of proof test could significantly reduce the stress rupture lifetime of COPVs. The focus of this paper is to present an analytical appraisal of a model that incorporates damage due to proof test. The model examined in the current paper is based on physical mechanisms such as micromechanics based load sharing concepts coupled with creep rupture and Weibull statistics. For example, the classic model cannot accommodate for damage due to proof testing which every flight vessel undergoes. The paper compares current model to the classic model with a number of examples. In addition, several applications of the model to current ISS and Constellation program issues are also examined.

Modeling failure in brittle porous ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keles, Ozgur

Brittle porous materials (BPMs) are used for battery, fuel cell, catalyst, membrane, filter, bone graft, and pharmacy applications due to the multi-functionality of their underlying porosity. However, in spite of its technological benefits the effects of porosity on BPM fracture strength and Weibull statistics are not fully understood--limiting a wider use. In this context, classical fracture mechanics was combined with two-dimensional finite element simulations not only to account for pore-pore stress interactions, but also to numerically quantify the relationship between the local pore volume fraction and fracture statistics. Simulations show that even the microstructures with the same porosity level and size of pores differ substantially in fracture strength. The maximum reliability of BPMs was shown to be limited by the underlying pore--pore interactions. Fracture strength of BMPs decreases at a faster rate under biaxial loading than under uniaxial loading. Three different types of deviation from classic Weibull behavior are identified: P-type corresponding to a positive lower tail deviation, N-type corresponding to a negative lower tail deviation, and S-type corresponding to both positive upper and lower tail deviations. Pore-pore interactions result in either P-type or N-type deviation in the limit of low porosity, whereas S-type behavior occurs when clusters of low and high fracture strengths coexist in a fracture data.

Statistical study of air pollutant concentrations via generalized gamma distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marani, A.; Lavagnini, I.; Buttazzoni, C.

1986-11-01

This paper deals with modeling observed frequency distributions of air quality data measured in the area of Venice, Italy. The paper discusses the application of the generalized gamma distribution (ggd) which has not been commonly applied to air quality data notwithstanding the fact that it embodies most distribution models used for air quality analyses. The approach yields important simplifications for statistical analyses. A comparison among the ggd and other relevant models (standard gamma, Weibull, lognormal), carried out on daily sulfur dioxide concentrations in the area of Venice underlines the efficiency of ggd models in portraying experimental data.

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, Steven N.

1992-01-01

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

A Weibull distribution accrual failure detector for cloud computing.

PubMed

Liu, Jiaxi; Wu, Zhibo; Wu, Jin; Dong, Jian; Zhao, Yao; Wen, Dongxin

2017-01-01

Failure detectors are used to build high availability distributed systems as the fundamental component. To meet the requirement of a complicated large-scale distributed system, accrual failure detectors that can adapt to multiple applications have been studied extensively. However, several implementations of accrual failure detectors do not adapt well to the cloud service environment. To solve this problem, a new accrual failure detector based on Weibull Distribution, called the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector, has been proposed specifically for cloud computing. It can adapt to the dynamic and unexpected network conditions in cloud computing. The performance of the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector is evaluated and compared based on public classical experiment data and cloud computing experiment data. The results show that the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector has better performance in terms of speed and accuracy in unstable scenarios, especially in cloud computing.

An experimental bioactive dental ceramic for metal-ceramic restorations: Textural characteristics and investigation of the mechanical properties.

PubMed

Goudouri, Ourania-Menti; Kontonasaki, Eleana; Papadopoulou, Lambrini; Manda, Marianthi; Kavouras, Panagiotis; Triantafyllidis, Konstantinos S; Stefanidou, Maria; Koidis, Petros; Paraskevopoulos, Konstantinos M

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was the evaluation of the textural characteristics of an experimental sol-gel derived feldspathic dental ceramic, which has already been proven bioactive and the investigation of its flexural strength through Weibull Statistical Analysis. The null hypothesis was that the flexural strength of the experimental and the commercial dental ceramic would be of the same order, resulting in a dental ceramic with apatite forming ability and adequate mechanical integrity. Although the flexural strength of the experimental ceramics was not statistically significant different compared to the commercial one, the amount of blind pores due to processing was greater. The textural characteristics of the experimental ceramic were in accordance with the standard low porosity levels reported for dental ceramics used for fixed prosthetic restorations. Feldspathic dental ceramics with typical textural characteristics and advanced mechanical properties as well as enhanced apatite forming ability can be synthesized through the sol-gel method. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Four Theorems on the Psychometric Function

PubMed Central

May, Keith A.; Solomon, Joshua A.

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, . This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull “slope” parameter, , can be approximated by , where is the of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for and , from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when , . We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4–0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian. PMID:24124456

The Effect of Roughness Model on Scattering Properties of Ice Crystals.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan

2016-01-01

We compare stochastic models of microscale surface roughness assuming uniform and Weibull distributions of crystal facet tilt angles to calculate scattering by roughened hexagonal ice crystals using the geometric optics (GO) approximation. Both distributions are determined by similar roughness parameters, while the Weibull model depends on the additional shape parameter. Calculations were performed for two visible wavelengths (864 nm and 410 nm) for roughness values between 0.2 and 0.7 and Weibull shape parameters between 0 and 1.0 for crystals with aspect ratios of 0.21, 1 and 4.8. For this range of parameters we find that, for a given roughness level, varying the Weibull shape parameter can change the asymmetry parameter by up to about 0.05. The largest effect of the shape parameter variation on the phase function is found in the backscattering region, while the degree of linear polarization is most affected at the side-scattering angles. For high roughness, scattering properties calculated using the uniform and Weibull models are in relatively close agreement for a given roughness parameter, especially when a Weibull shape parameter of 0.75 is used. For smaller roughness values, a shape parameter close to unity provides a better agreement. Notable differences are observed in the phase function over the scattering angle range from 5deg to 20deg, where the uniform roughness model produces a plateau while the Weibull model does not.

Preparation and Mechanical Behavior of Glass-Ceramics from Feldspathic Frits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fernanda A. N. G.; Barbato, Carla N.; França, Silvia C. A.; Silva, Ana Lúcia N.; de Andrade, Mônica C.

2017-10-01

Glass-ceramics were produced from frits with feldspar (79.09% wt/wt), alumina, sodium carbonate, potassium carbonate, borax and cerium dioxide. Feldspathic frits obtained at 1200 °C were shaped and sintered at various temperatures. Flexural strength results were analyzed by using the Weibull statistical distribution. These materials were also characterized by x-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). At 600 °C, an initial leucite formation occurred as a crystalline phase, but the amorphous phase still prevailed, with low flexural strength. On the other hand, when the temperature increased to 800 °C, flexural strength also increased to approximately 70 MPa and Weibull modulus, m = 4.4 . This behavior was explained by the formation of leucite crystals dispersed within the glassy matrix, which hinders, in a certain concentration, the propagation of cracks. However, for the sintering temperature of 1000 °C, flexural strength decreased and may be associated with higher levels of this leucite crystal, in spite of the higher reliability m = 6.6.

A two-scale Weibull approach to the failure of porous ceramic structures made by robocasting: possibilities and limits

PubMed Central

Genet, Martin; Houmard, Manuel; Eslava, Salvador; Saiz, Eduardo; Tomsia, Antoni P.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces our approach to modeling the mechanical behavior of cellular ceramics, through the example of calcium phosphate scaffolds made by robocasting for bone-tissue engineering. The Weibull theory is used to deal with the scaffolds’ constitutive rods statistical failure, and the Sanchez-Palencia theory of periodic homogenization is used to link the rod- and scaffold-scales. Uniaxial compression of scaffolds and three-point bending of rods were performed to calibrate and validate the model. If calibration based on rod-scale data leads to over-conservative predictions of scaffold’s properties (as rods’ successive failures are not taken into account), we show that, for a given rod diameter, calibration based on scaffold-scale data leads to very satisfactory predictions for a wide range of rod spacing, i.e. of scaffold porosity, as well as for different loading conditions. This work establishes the proposed model as a reliable tool for understanding and optimizing cellular ceramics’ mechanical properties. PMID:23439936

Time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic engine components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing either the power or Paris law relations. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating proof testing and fatigue parameter estimation are given.

A Weibull distribution accrual failure detector for cloud computing

PubMed Central

Wu, Zhibo; Wu, Jin; Zhao, Yao; Wen, Dongxin

2017-01-01

Failure detectors are used to build high availability distributed systems as the fundamental component. To meet the requirement of a complicated large-scale distributed system, accrual failure detectors that can adapt to multiple applications have been studied extensively. However, several implementations of accrual failure detectors do not adapt well to the cloud service environment. To solve this problem, a new accrual failure detector based on Weibull Distribution, called the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector, has been proposed specifically for cloud computing. It can adapt to the dynamic and unexpected network conditions in cloud computing. The performance of the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector is evaluated and compared based on public classical experiment data and cloud computing experiment data. The results show that the Weibull Distribution Failure Detector has better performance in terms of speed and accuracy in unstable scenarios, especially in cloud computing. PMID:28278229

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

This is the third annual technical report for the program entitled, Improved Silicon Carbide for Advanced Heat Engines, for the period February 16, 1987 to February 15, 1988. The objective of the original program was the development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines. Injection molding is the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals of the revised program are to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in 4-point loading. Two tasks are discussed: Task 1 which involves materials and process improvements, and Task 2 which is a MOR bar matrix to improve strength and reliability. Many statistically designed experiments were completed under task 1 which improved the composition of the batches, the mixing of the powders, the sinter and anneal cycles. The best results were obtained by an attritor mixing process which yielded strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and an individual Weibull modulus of 16.8 for a 9-sample group. Strengths measured at 1200 and 1400 C were equal to the room temperature strength. Annealing of machined test bars significantly improved the strength. Molding yields were measured and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. The second iteration of the Task 2 matrix experiment is described.

Probability density function characterization for aggregated large-scale wind power based on Weibull mixtures

DOE PAGES

Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio; Bueso, Maria C.; Kessler, Mathieu; ...

2016-02-02

Here, the Weibull probability distribution has been widely applied to characterize wind speeds for wind energy resources. Wind power generation modeling is different, however, due in particular to power curve limitations, wind turbine control methods, and transmission system operation requirements. These differences are even greater for aggregated wind power generation in power systems with high wind penetration. Consequently, models based on one-Weibull component can provide poor characterizations for aggregated wind power generation. With this aim, the present paper focuses on discussing Weibull mixtures to characterize the probability density function (PDF) for aggregated wind power generation. PDFs of wind power datamore » are firstly classified attending to hourly and seasonal patterns. The selection of the number of components in the mixture is analyzed through two well-known different criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Finally, the optimal number of Weibull components for maximum likelihood is explored for the defined patterns, including the estimated weight, scale, and shape parameters. Results show that multi-Weibull models are more suitable to characterize aggregated wind power data due to the impact of distributed generation, variety of wind speed values and wind power curtailment.« less

Comparison of mechanical properties of three machinable ceramics with an experimental fluorophlogopite glass ceramic.

PubMed

Leung, Brian T W; Tsoi, James K H; Matinlinna, Jukka P; Pow, Edmond H N

2015-09-01

Fluorophlogopite glass ceramic (FGC) is a biocompatible, etchable, and millable ceramic with fluoride releasing property. However, its mechanical properties and reliability compared with other machinable ceramics remain undetermined. The purpose of this in vitro study was to compare the mechanical properties of 3 commercially available millable ceramic materials, IPS e.max CAD, Vitablocs Mark II, and Vita Enamic, with an experimental FGC. Each type of ceramic block was sectioned into beams (n=15) of standard dimensions of 2×2×15 mm. Before mechanical testing, specimens of the IPS e.max CAD group were further fired for final crystallization. Flexural strength was determined by the 3-point bend test with a universal loading machine at a cross head speed of 1 mm/min. Hardness was determined with a hardness tester with 5 Vickers hardness indentations (n=5) using a 1.96 N load and a dwell time of 15 seconds. Selected surfaces were examined by scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. Data were analyzed by the 1-way ANOVA test and Weibull analysis (α=.05). Weibull parameters, including the Weibull modulus (m) as well as the characteristic strength at 63.2% (η) and 10.0% (B10), were obtained. A significant difference in flexural strength (P<.001) was found among groups, with IPS e.max CAD (341.88 ±40.25 MPa)>Vita Enamic (145.95 ±12.65 MPa)>Vitablocs Mark II (106.67 ±18.50 MPa), and FGC (117.61 ±7.62 MPa). The Weibull modulus ranged from 6.93 to 18.34, with FGC showing the highest Weibull modulus among the 4 materials. The Weibull plot revealed that IPS e.max CAD>Vita Enamic>FGC>Vitablocs Mark II for the characteristic strength at both 63.2% (η) and 10.0% (B10). Significant difference in Vickers hardness among groups (P<.001) was found with IPS e.max CAD (731.63 ±30.64 H(V))>Vitablocs Mark II (594.74 ±25.22 H(V))>Vita Enamic (372.29 ±51.23 H(V))>FGC (153.74 ±23.62 H(V)). The flexural strength and Vickers hardness of IPS e.max CAD were significantly higher than those of the 3 materials tested. The FGC's flexural strength was comparable with Vitablocs Mark II. The FGC's Weibull modulus was the highest, while its Vickers hardness was the lowest among the materials tested. Copyright © 2015 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.

2012-12-01

Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is not yet a common source of energy, although there is enough wind potential to supply world's energy demand. One of the most prominent obstacles on the way of employing wind energy is the uncertainty associated with wind energy assessment. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how the variation of input parameters in an abstract model effects the variation of the variable of interest or the output variable. It also provides ways to calculate explicit measures of importance of input variables (first order and total effect sensitivity indices) in regard to influence on the variation of the output variable. Two methods of determining the above mentioned indices were applied and compared: the brute force method and the best practice estimation procedure In this study a methodology for conducting global SA of wind energy assessment at a planning stage is proposed. Three sampling strategies which are a part of SA procedure were compared: sampling based on Sobol' sequences (SBSS), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and pseudo-random sampling (PRS). A case study of Masdar City, a showcase of sustainable living in the UAE, is used to exemplify application of the proposed methodology. Sources of uncertainty in wind energy assessment are very diverse. In the case study the following were identified as uncertain input parameters: the Weibull shape parameter, the Weibull scale parameter, availability of a wind turbine, lifetime of a turbine, air density, electrical losses, blade losses, ineffective time losses. Ineffective time losses are defined as losses during the time when the actual wind speed is lower than the cut-in speed or higher than the cut-out speed. The output variable in the case study is the lifetime energy production. Most influential factors for lifetime energy production are identified with the ranking of the total effect sensitivity indices. The results of the present research show that the brute force method is best for wind assessment purpose, SBSS outperforms other sampling strategies in the majority of cases. The results indicate that the Weibull scale parameter, turbine lifetime and Weibull shape parameter are the three most influential variables in the case study setting. The following conclusions can be drawn from these results: 1) SBSS should be recommended for use in Monte Carlo experiments, 2) The brute force method should be recommended for conducting sensitivity analysis in wind resource assessment, and 3) Little variation in the Weibull scale causes significant variation in energy production. The presence of the two distribution parameters in the top three influential variables (the Weibull shape and scale) emphasizes the importance of accuracy of (a) choosing the distribution to model wind regime at a site and (b) estimating probability distribution parameters. This can be labeled as the most important conclusion of this research because it opens a field for further research, which the authors see could change the wind energy field tremendously.

Regional And Seasonal Aspects Of Within-The-Hour Tec Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koroglu, Ozan; Arikan, Feza; Koroglu, Meltem

2015-04-01

Ionosphere is one of the atmosphere layers which has a plasma structure. Several mechanisms originating from both space and earth itself governs this plasma layer such as solar radiation and geomagnetic effects. Ionosphere plays important role for HF and satellite communication, and space based positioning systems. Therefore, the determination of statistical behavior of ionosphere has utmost importance. The variability of the ionosphere has complex spatio-temporal characteristics, which depends on solar, geomagnetic, gravitational and seismic activities. Total Electron Content (TEC) is one of the major observables for investigating and determining this variability. In this study, spatio-temporal within-the-hour statistical behavior of TEC is determined for Turkey, which is located in mid-latitude, using the TEC estimates from Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN)-Active between the years 2009 and 2012. TEC estimates are obtained as IONOLAB-TEC which is developed by IONOLAB group (www.ionolab.org) from Hacettepe University. IONOLAB-TEC for each station in TNPGN-Active is organized in a database and grouped with respect to years, ionospheric seasons, hours and regions 2 degree by 3 degree, in latitude and longitude, respectively. The data sets are used to calculate within-the-hour parametric Probability Density Functions (PDF). For every year, every region and every hour, a representative PDF is determined. It is observed that TEC values have a strong hourly, seasonal and positional dependence on east-west direction, and the growing trend shifts according to sunrise and sunset times. It is observed that the data are distributed predominantly as Lognormal and Weibull. The averages and standard deviations of the chosen distributions follow the trends in 24 hour diurnal and 11 year solar cycle periods. The regional and seasonal behavior of PDFs are investigated using a representative GPS station within each region. Within-the-hour PDF estimates are grouped into ionospheric seasons as Winter, Summer, March equinox and September equinox. In winter and summer seasons, Lognormal distribution is observed. During equinox seasons, Weibull distribution is observed more frequently. Furthermore, all hourly TEC values in same region are combined in order to improve the reliability and accuracy of the probability density function estimates. It is observed that as being in mid-latitude region, the ionosphere over Turkey has robust characteristics that are distributed as Lognormal and Weibull. Statistical observations on PDF estimates of TEC of the ionosphere over Turkey will contribute to developing a regional and seasonal random field model, which will further contribute to HF channel characterization. This study is supported by a joint grant of TUBITAK 112E568 and RFBR 13-02-91370-CT_a.

Probability Analysis of the Wave-Slamming Pressure Values of the Horizontal Deck with Elastic Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Weiguang; Liu, Ming; Fan, Tianhui; Wang, Pengtao

2018-06-01

This paper presents the probability distribution of the slamming pressure from an experimental study of regular wave slamming on an elastically supported horizontal deck. The time series of the slamming pressure during the wave impact were first obtained through statistical analyses on experimental data. The exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak and distribution parameters were analyzed, and the results show that the exceeding probability distribution of the maximum slamming pressure peak accords with the three-parameter Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the range and relationships of the distribution parameters were studied. The sum of the location parameter D and the scale parameter L was approximately equal to 1.0, and the exceeding probability was more than 36.79% when the random peak was equal to the sample average during the wave impact. The variation of the distribution parameters and slamming pressure under different model conditions were comprehensively presented, and the parameter values of the Weibull distribution of wave-slamming pressure peaks were different due to different test models. The parameter values were found to decrease due to the increased stiffness of the elastic support. The damage criterion of the structure model caused by the wave impact was initially discussed, and the structure model was destroyed when the average slamming time was greater than a certain value during the duration of the wave impact. The conclusions of the experimental study were then described.

Fisher information for two gamma frailty bivariate Weibull models.

PubMed

Bjarnason, H; Hougaard, P

2000-03-01

The asymptotic properties of frailty models for multivariate survival data are not well understood. To study this aspect, the Fisher information is derived in the standard bivariate gamma frailty model, where the survival distribution is of Weibull form conditional on the frailty. For comparison, the Fisher information is also derived in the bivariate gamma frailty model, where the marginal distribution is of Weibull form.

Statistical Characterization and Classification of Edge-Localized Plasma Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, A. J.; Dendy, R. O.

2013-04-01

The statistics of edge-localized plasma instabilities (ELMs) in toroidal magnetically confined fusion plasmas are considered. From first principles, standard experimentally motivated assumptions are shown to determine a specific probability distribution for the waiting times between ELMs: the Weibull distribution. This is confirmed empirically by a statistically rigorous comparison with a large data set from the Joint European Torus. The successful characterization of ELM waiting times enables future work to progress in various ways. Here we present a quantitative classification of ELM types, complementary to phenomenological approaches. It also informs us about the nature of ELM processes, such as whether they are random or deterministic. The methods are extremely general and can be applied to numerous other quasiperiodic intermittent phenomena.

C3H7NO2S effect on concrete steel-rebar corrosion in 0.5 M H2SO4 simulating industrial/microbial environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Nwadialo, Christopher Chukwuweike; Olu-Steven, Folusho Emmanuel; Ebinne, Samaru Smart; Coker, Taiwo Ebenezer; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin; Ogbiye, Adebanji Samuel; Durotoye, Taiwo Omowunmi; Badmus, Emmanuel Omotunde Oluwasogo

2017-02-01

This paper investigates C3H7NO2S (Cysteine) effect on the inhibition of reinforcing steel corrosion in concrete immersed in 0.5 M H2SO4, for simulating industrial/microbial environment. Different C3H7NO2S concentrations were admixed, in duplicates, in steel-reinforced concrete samples that were partially immersed in the acidic sulphate environment. Electrochemical monitoring techniques of open circuit potential, as per ASTM C876-91 R99, and corrosion rate, by linear polarization resistance, were then employed for studying anticorrosion effect in steel-reinforced concrete samples by the organic hydrocarbon admixture. Analyses of electrochemical test-data followed ASTM G16-95 R04 prescriptions including probability distribution modeling with significant testing by Kolmogorov-Smirnov and student's t-tests statistics. Results established that all datasets of corrosion potential distributed like the Normal, the Gumbel and the Weibull distributions but that only the Weibull model described all the corrosion rate datasets in the study, as per the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test-statistics. Results of the student's t-test showed that differences of corrosion test-data between duplicated samples with the same C3H7NO2S concentrations were not statistically significant. These results indicated that 0.06878 M C3H7NO2S exhibited optimal inhibition efficiency η = 90.52±1.29% on reinforcing steel corrosion in the concrete samples immersed in 0.5 M H2SO4, simulating industrial/microbial service-environment.

A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-11-01

A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

The Weibull probabilities analysis on the single kenaf fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, I.; Sarip, S.; Bani, N. A.; Ibrahim, M. H.; Hassan, M. Z.

2018-05-01

Kenaf fiber has a great potential to be replaced with the synthetic composite due to their advantages such as environmentally friendly and outstanding performance. However, the main issue of this natural fiber that to be used in structural composite is inconsistency of their mechanical properties. Here, the influence of the gage length on the mechanical properties of single kenaf fiber was evaluated. This fiber was tested using the Universal testing machine at a loading rate of 1mm per min following ASTM D3822 standard. In this study, the different length of treated fiber including 20, 30 and 40mm were being tested. Following, Weibull probabilities analysis was used to characterize the tensile strength and Young modulus of kenaf fiber. The predicted average tensile strength from this approach is in good agreement with experimental results for the obtained parameter.

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from postmortem human subject tests under axial impacts.

PubMed

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W J; Pintar, Frank A; Szabo, Aniko

2014-01-01

Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. The study reexamined lower leg postmortem human subjects (PMHS) data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and noninjury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the covariable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike information criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. The mean age, stature, and weight were 58.2±15.1 years, 1.74±0.08 m, and 74.9±13.8 kg, respectively. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other 2 distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-olds at 5, 25, and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45, and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines.

Simulation of flight maneuver-load distributions by utilizing stationary, non-Gaussian random load histories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leybold, H. A.

1971-01-01

Random numbers were generated with the aid of a digital computer and transformed such that the probability density function of a discrete random load history composed of these random numbers had one of the following non-Gaussian distributions: Poisson, binomial, log-normal, Weibull, and exponential. The resulting random load histories were analyzed to determine their peak statistics and were compared with cumulative peak maneuver-load distributions for fighter and transport aircraft in flight.

Life prediction methodology for ceramic components of advanced heat engines. Phase 1: Volume 2, Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-03-01

This volume presents the following appendices: ceramic test specimen drawings and schematics, mixed-mode and biaxial stress fracture of structural ceramics for advanced vehicular heat engines (U. Utah), mode I/mode II fracture toughness and tension/torsion fracture strength of NT154 Si nitride (Brown U.), summary of strength test results and fractography, fractography photographs, derivations of statistical models, Weibull strength plots for fast fracture test specimens, and size functions.

CARES - CERAMICS ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF STRUCTURES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, N. N.

1994-01-01

The beneficial properties of structural ceramics include their high-temperature strength, light weight, hardness, and corrosion and oxidation resistance. For advanced heat engines, ceramics have demonstrated functional abilities at temperatures well beyond the operational limits of metals. This is offset by the fact that ceramic materials tend to be brittle. When a load is applied, their lack of significant plastic deformation causes the material to crack at microscopic flaws, destroying the component. CARES calculates the fast-fracture reliability or failure probability of macroscopically isotropic ceramic components. These components may be subjected to complex thermomechanical loadings. The program uses results from a commercial structural analysis program (MSC/NASTRAN or ANSYS) to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. A multiple material capability allows the finite element model reliability to be a function of many different ceramic material statistical characterizations. The reliability analysis uses element stress, temperature, area, and volume output, which are obtained from two dimensional shell and three dimensional solid isoparametric or axisymmetric finite elements. CARES utilizes the Batdorf model and the two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function to describe the effects of multi-axial stress states on material strength. The shear-sensitive Batdorf model requires a user-selected flaw geometry and a mixed-mode fracture criterion. Flaws intersecting the surface and imperfections embedded in the volume can be modeled. The total strain energy release rate theory is used as a mixed mode fracture criterion for co-planar crack extension. Out-of-plane crack extension criteria are approximated by a simple equation with a semi-empirical constant that can model the maximum tangential stress theory, the minimum strain energy density criterion, the maximum strain energy release rate theory, or experimental results. For comparison, Griffith's maximum tensile stress theory, the principle of independent action, and the Weibull normal stress averaging models are also included. Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities are estimated from four-point bend bar or uniform uniaxial tensile specimen fracture strength data. Parameter estimation can be performed for single or multiple failure modes by using the least-squares analysis or the maximum likelihood method. A more limited program, CARES/PC (COSMIC number LEW-15248) runs on a personal computer and estimates ceramic material properties from three-point bend bar data. CARES/PC does not perform fast fracture reliability estimation. CARES is written in FORTRAN 77 and has been implemented on DEC VAX series computers under VMS and on IBM 370 series computers under VM/CMS. On a VAX, CARES requires 10Mb of main memory. Five MSC/NASTRAN example problems and two ANSYS example problems are provided. There are two versions of CARES supplied on the distribution tape, CARES1 and CARES2. CARES2 contains sub-elements and CARES1 does not. CARES is available on a 9-track 1600 BPI VAX FILES-11 format magnetic tape (standard media) or in VAX BACKUP format on a TK50 tape cartridge. The program requires a FORTRAN 77 compiler and about 12Mb memory. CARES was developed in 1990. DEC, VAX and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. IBM 370 is a trademark of International Business Machines. MSC/NASTRAN is a trademark of MacNeal-Schwendler Corporation. ANSYS is a trademark of Swanson Analysis Systems, Inc.

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Jesse P.

1989-01-01

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Analysis of stratocumulus cloud fields using LANDSAT imagery: Size distributions and spatial separations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, R. M.; Sengupta, S. K.; Chen, D. W.

1990-01-01

Stratocumulus cloud fields in the FIRE IFO region are analyzed using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper imagery. Structural properties such as cloud cell size distribution, cell horizontal aspect ratio, fractional coverage and fractal dimension are determined. It is found that stratocumulus cloud number densities are represented by a power law. Cell horizontal aspect ratio has a tendency to increase at large cell sizes, and cells are bi-fractal in nature. Using LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner imagery for twelve selected stratocumulus scenes acquired during previous years, similar structural characteristics are obtained. Cloud field spatial organization also is analyzed. Nearest-neighbor spacings are fit with a number of functions, with Weibull and Gamma distributions providing the best fits. Poisson tests show that the spatial separations are not random. Second order statistics are used to examine clustering.

Comparison of Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox in the Survival Analysis Of Breast Cancer Patients in Rafsanjan.

PubMed

Hoseini, Mina; Bahrampour, Abbas; Mirzaee, Moghaddameh

2017-02-16

Breast cancer is the most common cancer after lung cancer and the second cause of death. In this study we compared Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox regression on the survival of breast cancer. A cohort study. The current study retrospective cohort study was conducted on 140 patients referred to Ali Ibn Abitaleb Hospital, Rafsanjan southeastern Iran from 2001 to 2015 suffering from breast cancer. We determined and analyzed the effective survival causes by different models using STATA14. According to AIC, log-normal model was more consistent than Weibull. In the multivariable Lognormal model, the effective factors like smoking, second -hand smoking, drinking herbal tea and the last breast-feeding period were included. In addition, using Cox regression factors of significant were the disease grade, size of tumor and its metastasis (p-value<0.05). As Rafsanjan is surrounded by pistachio orchards and pesticides applied by farmers, people of this city are exposed to agricultural pesticides and its harmful consequences. The effect of the pesticide on breast cancer was studied and the results showed that the effect of pesticides on breast cancer was not in agreement with the models used in this study. Based on different methods for survival analysis, researchers can decide how they can reach a better conclusion. This comparison indicates the result of semi-parametric Cox method is closer to clinical experiences evidences.

Assessing a Tornado Climatology from Global Tornado Intensity Distributions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feuerstein, Bernold; Dotzek, Nikolai; Grieser, Jürgen

2005-02-01

Recent work demonstrated that the shape of tornado intensity distributions from various regions worldwide is well described by Weibull functions. This statistical modeling revealed a strong correlation between the fit parameters c for shape and b for scale regardless of the data source. In the present work it is shown that the quality of the Weibull fits is optimized if only tornado reports of F1 and higher intensity are used and that the c-b correlation does indeed reflect a universal feature of the observed tornado intensity distributions. For regions with likely supercell tornado dominance, this feature is the number ratio of F4 to F3 tornado reports R(F4/F3) = 0.238. The c-b diagram for the Weibull shape and scale parameters is used as a climatological chart, which allows different types of tornado climatology to be distinguished, presumably arising from supercell versus nonsupercell tornadogenesis. Assuming temporal invariance of the climatology and using a detection efficiency function for tornado observations, a stationary climatological probability distribution from large tornado records (U.S. decadal data 1950-99) is extracted. This can be used for risk assessment, comparative studies on tornado intensity distributions worldwide, and estimates of the degree of underreporting for areas with poor databases. For the 1990s U.S. data, a likely tornado underreporting of the weak events (F0, F1) by a factor of 2 can be diagnosed, as well as asymptotic climatological c,b values of c = 1.79 and b = 2.13, to which a convergence in the 1950-99 U.S. decadal data is verified.

Four theorems on the psychometric function.

PubMed

May, Keith A; Solomon, Joshua A

2013-01-01

In a 2-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) discrimination task, observers choose which of two stimuli has the higher value. The psychometric function for this task gives the probability of a correct response for a given stimulus difference, Δx. This paper proves four theorems about the psychometric function. Assuming the observer applies a transducer and adds noise, Theorem 1 derives a convenient general expression for the psychometric function. Discrimination data are often fitted with a Weibull function. Theorem 2 proves that the Weibull "slope" parameter, β, can be approximated by β(Noise) x β(Transducer), where β(Noise) is the β of the Weibull function that fits best to the cumulative noise distribution, and β(Transducer) depends on the transducer. We derive general expressions for β(Noise) and β(Transducer), from which we derive expressions for specific cases. One case that follows naturally from our general analysis is Pelli's finding that, when d' ∝ (Δx)(b), β ≈ β(Noise) x b. We also consider two limiting cases. Theorem 3 proves that, as sensitivity improves, 2AFC performance will usually approach that for a linear transducer, whatever the actual transducer; we show that this does not apply at signal levels where the transducer gradient is zero, which explains why it does not apply to contrast detection. Theorem 4 proves that, when the exponent of a power-function transducer approaches zero, 2AFC performance approaches that of a logarithmic transducer. We show that the power-function exponents of 0.4-0.5 fitted to suprathreshold contrast discrimination data are close enough to zero for the fitted psychometric function to be practically indistinguishable from that of a log transducer. Finally, Weibull β reflects the shape of the noise distribution, and we used our results to assess the recent claim that internal noise has higher kurtosis than a Gaussian. Our analysis of β for contrast discrimination suggests that, if internal noise is stimulus-independent, it has lower kurtosis than a Gaussian.

Experimental Study on Fatigue Performance of Foamed Lightweight Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Youqiang; Yang, Ping; Li, Yongliang; Zhang, Liujun

2017-12-01

In order to study fatigue performance of foamed lightweight soil and forecast its fatigue life in the supporting project, on the base of preliminary tests, beam fatigue tests on foamed lightweight soil is conducted by using UTM-100 test system. Based on Weibull distribution and lognormal distribution, using the mathematical statistics method, fatigue equations of foamed lightweight soil are obtained. At the same time, according to the traffic load on real road surface of the supporting project, fatigue life of formed lightweight soil is analyzed and compared with the cumulative equivalent axle loads during the design period of the pavement. The results show that even the fatigue life of foamed lightweight soil has discrete property, the linear relationship between logarithmic fatigue life and stress ratio still performs well. Especially, the fatigue life of Weibull distribution is more close to that derived from the lognormal distribution, in the instance of 50% guarantee ratio. In addition, the results demonstrated that foamed lightweight soil as subgrade filler has good anti-fatigue performance, which can be further adopted by other projects in the similar research domain.

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram–Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation. PMID:28394949

Polynomial probability distribution estimation using the method of moments.

PubMed

Munkhammar, Joakim; Mattsson, Lars; Rydén, Jesper

2017-01-01

We suggest a procedure for estimating Nth degree polynomial approximations to unknown (or known) probability density functions (PDFs) based on N statistical moments from each distribution. The procedure is based on the method of moments and is setup algorithmically to aid applicability and to ensure rigor in use. In order to show applicability, polynomial PDF approximations are obtained for the distribution families Normal, Log-Normal, Weibull as well as for a bimodal Weibull distribution and a data set of anonymized household electricity use. The results are compared with results for traditional PDF series expansion methods of Gram-Charlier type. It is concluded that this procedure is a comparatively simple procedure that could be used when traditional distribution families are not applicable or when polynomial expansions of probability distributions might be considered useful approximations. In particular this approach is practical for calculating convolutions of distributions, since such operations become integrals of polynomial expressions. Finally, in order to show an advanced applicability of the method, it is shown to be useful for approximating solutions to the Smoluchowski equation.

Structural Design Parameters for Germanium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jon; Rogers, Richard; Baker, Eric

2017-01-01

The fracture toughness and slow crack growth parameters of germanium supplied as single crystal beams and coarse grain disks were measured. Although germanium is anisotropic (A* 1.7), it is not as anisotropic as SiC, NiAl, or Cu. Thus the fracture toughness was similar on the 100, 110, and 111 planes, however, measurements associated with randomly oriented grinding cracks were 6 to 30 higher. Crack extension in ring loaded disks occurred on the 111 planes due to both the lower fracture energy and the higher stresses on stiff 111 planes. Germanium exhibits a Weibull scale effect, but does not exhibit significant slow crack growth in distilled water. (n 100), implying that design for quasi static loading can be performed with scaled strength statistics. Practical values for engineering design are a fracture toughness of 0.69 0.02 MPam (megapascals per square root meter) and a Weibull modulus of m 6 2. For well ground and reasonable handled coupons, average fracture strength should be greater than 40 megapascals. Aggregate, polycrystalline elastic constants are Epoly 131 gigapascals, vpoly 0.22.

Effect of sodium hypochlorite and saline on cyclic fatigue resistance of WaveOne Gold and Reciproc reciprocating instruments.

PubMed

Elnaghy, A M; Elsaka, S E

2017-10-01

To compare the cyclic fatigue resistance of WaveOne Gold (Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties, Tulsa, OK, USA) and Reciproc (VDW, Munich, Germany) reciprocating instruments during immersion in sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) and saline solutions at body temperature. A total of 180 new WaveOne Gold primary size 25, .07 taper, and Reciproc size 25, .08 taper were randomly divided into three groups: group 1: no immersion (control, air); group 2: immersion in saline at 37 ± 1 °C; and group 3: immersion in 5% NaOCl at 37 ± 1 °C. The instruments were reciprocated in the test solution until fracture, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. The data were analysed statistically using t-tests and one-way analysis of variance (anova) with the significance level set at P < 0.05. A Weibull analysis was performed on number of cycles to failure data. WaveOne Gold instruments had significantly greater number of cycles to failure than Reciproc instruments in all groups (P < 0.001). Fatigue resistance for both instruments tested in air was significantly higher than that in saline and NaOCl solutions (P < 0.001). For both instruments, there was no significant difference in the fatigue resistance between saline and NaOCl solutions (P > 0.05). The Weibull analysis showed that the predicted cycles of WaveOne Gold in air was 1027 cycles for 99% survival. However, Reciproc instruments tested in NaOCl solution had the lowest predicted cycles (613 cycles) among the groups. Immersion of WaveOne Gold and Reciproc reciprocating instruments in saline and NaOCl solutions decreased considerably their cyclic fatigue resistance. The fatigue resistance of WaveOne Gold instruments was higher than that of Reciproc instruments. © 2016 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Survival Analysis of Patients with End Stage Renal Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Gayo, W. S.; Bautista, L. A.; Baccay, E. B.

2015-06-01

This paper provides a survival analysis of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) under Kaplan-Meier Estimates and Weibull Distribution. The data were obtained from the records of V. L. MakabaliMemorial Hospital with respect to time t (patient's age), covariates such as developed secondary disease (Pulmonary Congestion and Cardiovascular Disease), gender, and the event of interest: the death of ESRD patients. Survival and hazard rates were estimated using NCSS for Weibull Distribution and SPSS for Kaplan-Meier Estimates. These lead to the same conclusion that hazard rate increases and survival rate decreases of ESRD patient diagnosed with Pulmonary Congestion, Cardiovascular Disease and both diseases with respect to time. It also shows that female patients have a greater risk of death compared to males. The probability risk was given the equation R = 1 — e-H(t) where e-H(t) is the survival function, H(t) the cumulative hazard function which was created using Cox-Regression.

Lifetime Reliability Evaluation of Structural Ceramic Parts with the CARES/LIFE Computer Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1993-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), Weibull's normal stress averaging method (NSA), or Batdorf's theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating cyclic fatigue parameter estimation and component reliability analysis with proof testing are included.

Analysis of an experiment aimed at improving the reliability of transmission centre shafts.

PubMed

Davis, T P

1995-01-01

Smith (1991) presents a paper proposing the use of Weibull regression models to establish dependence of failure data (usually times) on covariates related to the design of the test specimens and test procedures. In his article Smith made the point that good experimental design was as important in reliability applications as elsewhere, and in view of the current interest in design inspired by Taguchi and others, we pay some attention in this article to that topic. A real case study from the Ford Motor Company is presented. Our main approach is to utilize suggestions in the literature for applying standard least squares techniques of experimental analysis even when there is likely to be nonnormal error, and censoring. This approach lacks theoretical justification, but its appeal is its simplicity and flexibility. For completeness we also include some analysis based on the proportional hazards model, and in an attempt to link back to Smith (1991), look at a Weibull regression model.

A New Goodness-of-Fit Test for the Weibull Distribution Based on Spacings

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-03-01

Values for Z* test statistic: Samplesize N, shape parameter 1.0, a levels are 0.20 thru 0.01 ........................... .. 24 3. Skewness of the...parameter K=0.5, a levels are 0.20 thru 0.01 ....... ............................ 30 5. Power of the Test: Samplesize N=20, shape parameter K=1.0, a ...parameter 1.0, alpha level 0.01 ...... ... 36 12. Power of the Test: Samplesize N=30, shape parameter K=1.5, a levels are 0.20 thru 0.01

Handling of computational in vitro/in vivo correlation problems by Microsoft Excel II. Distribution functions and moments.

PubMed

Langenbucher, Frieder

2003-01-01

MS Excel is a useful tool to handle in vitro/in vivo correlation (IVIVC) distribution functions, with emphasis on the Weibull and the biexponential distribution, which are most useful for the presentation of cumulative profiles, e.g. release in vitro or urinary excretion in vivo, and differential profiles such as the plasma response in vivo. The discussion includes moments (AUC and mean) as summarizing statistics, and data-fitting algorithms for parameter estimation.

Establishment of a center of excellence for applied mathematical and statistical research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, W. A.; Gray, H. L.

1983-01-01

The state of the art was assessed with regards to efforts in support of the crop production estimation problem and alternative generic proportion estimation techniques were investigated. Topics covered include modeling the greeness profile (Badhwarmos model), parameter estimation using mixture models such as CLASSY, and minimum distance estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. Approaches to the problem of obtaining proportion estimates when the underlying distributions are asymmetric are examined including the properties of Weibull distribution.

A probabilistic approach to photovoltaic generator performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khallat, M. A.; Rahman, S.

1986-09-01

A method for predicting the performance of a photovoltaic (PV) generator based on long term climatological data and expected cell performance is described. The equations for cell model formulation are provided. Use of the statistical model for characterizing the insolation level is discussed. The insolation data is fitted to appropriate probability distribution functions (Weibull, beta, normal). The probability distribution functions are utilized to evaluate the capacity factors of PV panels or arrays. An example is presented revealing the applicability of the procedure.

A comparison of the thermal inactivation kinetics of human norovirus surrogates and hepatitis A virus in buffered cell culture medium.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Hayriye; D'Souza, Doris H; Davidson, P Michael

2014-09-01

Human noroviruses and hepatitis A virus (HAV) are considered as epidemiologically significant causes of foodborne disease. Therefore, studies are needed to bridge existing data gaps and determine appropriate parameters for thermal inactivation of human noroviruses and HAV. The objectives of this research were to compare the thermal inactivation kinetics of human norovirus surrogates (murine norovirus (MNV-1), and feline calicivirus (FCV-F9)) and HAV in buffered medium (2-ml vials), compare first-order and Weibull models to describe the data, calculate Arrhenius activation energy for each model, and evaluate model efficiency using selected statistical criteria. The D-values calculated from the first-order model (50-72 °C) ranged from 0.21-19.75 min for FCV-F9, 0.25-36.28 min for MNV-1, and 0.88-56.22 min for HAV. Using the Weibull model, the tD = 1 (time to destroy 1 log) for FCV-F9, MNV-1 and HAV at the same temperatures ranged from 0.10-13.27, 0.09-26.78, and 1.03-39.91 min, respectively. The z-values for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 9.66 °C, 9.16 °C, and 14.50 °C, respectively, using the Weibull model. For the first order model, z-values were 9.36 °C, 9.32 °C, and 12.49 °C for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV, respectively. For the Weibull model, estimated activation energies for FCV-F9, MNV-1, and HAV were 225, 278, and 182 kJ/mol, respectively, while the calculated activation energies for the first order model were 195, 202, and 171 kJ/mol, respectively. Knowledge of the thermal inactivation kinetics of norovirus surrogates and HAV will allow the development of processes that produce safer food products and improve consumer safety. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

CONCERNING THE RELIABILITY OF A SYSTEM MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS AFIT/GOR/MA/81D-8 Philippe A. Lussier 2nd Lt USAF... MODELED BY A TWO-PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute of Technology...repetitions are used for these test procedures. vi Sequential Testing of Hypotheses Concerning the Reliability of a System Modeled by a Two-Parameter

Influence of the bracket on bonding and physical behavior of orthodontic resin cements.

PubMed

Bolaños-Carmona, Victoria; Zein, Bilal; Menéndez-Núñez, Mario; Sánchez-Sánchez, Purificación; Ceballos-García, Laura; González-López, Santiago

2015-01-01

The aim of the study is to determine the influence of the type of bracket, on bond strength, microhardness and conversion degree (CD) of four resin orthodontic cements. Micro-tensile bond strength (µTBS) test between the bracket base and the cement was carried out on glass-hour-shaped specimens (n=20). Vickers Hardness Number (VHN) and micro-Raman spectra were recorded in situ under the bracket base. Weibull distribution, ANOVA and non-parametric test were applied for data analysis (p<0.05). The highest values of ή as well as the β Weibull parameter were obtained for metallic brackets with Transbond™ plastic brackets with the self-curing cement showing the worst performance. The CD was from 80% to 62.5%.

Estimating the mean and standard deviation of environmental data with below detection limit observations: Considering highly skewed data and model misspecification.

PubMed

Shoari, Niloofar; Dubé, Jean-Sébastien; Chenouri, Shoja'eddin

2015-11-01

In environmental studies, concentration measurements frequently fall below detection limits of measuring instruments, resulting in left-censored data. Some studies employ parametric methods such as the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), robust regression on order statistic (rROS), and gamma regression on order statistic (GROS), while others suggest a non-parametric approach, the Kaplan-Meier method (KM). Using examples of real data from a soil characterization study in Montreal, we highlight the need for additional investigations that aim at unifying the existing literature. A number of studies have examined this issue; however, those considering data skewness and model misspecification are rare. These aspects are investigated in this paper through simulations. Among other findings, results show that for low skewed data, the performance of different statistical methods is comparable, regardless of the censoring percentage and sample size. For highly skewed data, the performance of the MLE method under lognormal and Weibull distributions is questionable; particularly, when the sample size is small or censoring percentage is high. In such conditions, MLE under gamma distribution, rROS, GROS, and KM are less sensitive to skewness. Related to model misspecification, MLE based on lognormal and Weibull distributions provides poor estimates when the true distribution of data is misspecified. However, the methods of rROS, GROS, and MLE under gamma distribution are generally robust to model misspecifications regardless of skewness, sample size, and censoring percentage. Since the characteristics of environmental data (e.g., type of distribution and skewness) are unknown a priori, we suggest using MLE based on gamma distribution, rROS and GROS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The stochastic distribution of available coefficient of friction for human locomotion of five different floor surfaces.

PubMed

Chang, Wen-Ruey; Matz, Simon; Chang, Chien-Chi

2014-05-01

The maximum coefficient of friction that can be supported at the shoe and floor interface without a slip is usually called the available coefficient of friction (ACOF) for human locomotion. The probability of a slip could be estimated using a statistical model by comparing the ACOF with the required coefficient of friction (RCOF), assuming that both coefficients have stochastic distributions. An investigation of the stochastic distributions of the ACOF of five different floor surfaces under dry, water and glycerol conditions is presented in this paper. One hundred friction measurements were performed on each floor surface under each surface condition. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test was used to determine if the distribution of the ACOF was a good fit with the normal, log-normal and Weibull distributions. The results indicated that the ACOF distributions had a slightly better match with the normal and log-normal distributions than with the Weibull in only three out of 15 cases with a statistical significance. The results are far more complex than what had heretofore been published and different scenarios could emerge. Since the ACOF is compared with the RCOF for the estimate of slip probability, the distribution of the ACOF in seven cases could be considered a constant for this purpose when the ACOF is much lower or higher than the RCOF. A few cases could be represented by a normal distribution for practical reasons based on their skewness and kurtosis values without a statistical significance. No representation could be found in three cases out of 15. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-02-01

Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

A biology-driven receptor model for daily pollen allergy risk in Korea based on Weibull probability density function.

PubMed

Kim, Kyu Rang; Kim, Mijin; Choe, Ho-Seong; Han, Mae Ja; Lee, Hye-Rim; Oh, Jae-Won; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-02-01

Pollen is an important cause of respiratory allergic reactions. As individual sanitation has improved, allergy risk has increased, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. Atmospheric pollen concentration is highly influenced by weather conditions. Regression analysis and modeling of the relationships between airborne pollen concentrations and weather conditions were performed to analyze and forecast pollen conditions. Traditionally, daily pollen concentration has been estimated using regression models that describe the relationships between observed pollen concentrations and weather conditions. These models were able to forecast daily concentrations at the sites of observation, but lacked broader spatial applicability beyond those sites. To overcome this limitation, an integrated modeling scheme was developed that is designed to represent the underlying processes of pollen production and distribution. A maximum potential for airborne pollen is first determined using the Weibull probability density function. Then, daily pollen concentration is estimated using multiple regression models. Daily risk grade levels are determined based on the risk criteria used in Korea. The mean percentages of agreement between the observed and estimated levels were 81.4-88.2 % and 92.5-98.5 % for oak and Japanese hop pollens, respectively. The new models estimated daily pollen risk more accurately than the original statistical models because of the newly integrated biological response curves. Although they overestimated seasonal mean concentration, they did not simulate all of the peak concentrations. This issue would be resolved by adding more variables that affect the prevalence and internal maturity of pollens.

Calling patterns in human communication dynamics

PubMed Central

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Li, Ming-Xia; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2013-01-01

Modern technologies not only provide a variety of communication modes (e.g., texting, cell phone conversation, and online instant messaging), but also detailed electronic traces of these communications between individuals. These electronic traces indicate that the interactions occur in temporal bursts. Here, we study intercall duration of communications of the 100,000 most active cell phone users of a Chinese mobile phone operator. We confirm that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff at the population level but find differences when focusing on individual users. We apply statistical tests at the individual level and find that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution for only 3,460 individuals (3.46%). The intercall durations for the majority (73.34%) follow a Weibull distribution. We quantify individual users using three measures: out-degree, percentage of outgoing calls, and communication diversity. We find that the cell phone users with a power-law duration distribution fall into three anomalous clusters: robot-based callers, telecom fraud, and telephone sales. This information is of interest to both academics and practitioners, mobile telecom operators in particular. In contrast, the individual users with a Weibull duration distribution form the fourth cluster of ordinary cell phone users. We also discover more information about the calling patterns of these four clusters (e.g., the probability that a user will call the cr-th most contact and the probability distribution of burst sizes). Our findings may enable a more detailed analysis of the huge body of data contained in the logs of massive users. PMID:23319645

Calling patterns in human communication dynamics.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Li, Ming-Xia; Podobnik, Boris; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H Eugene

2013-01-29

Modern technologies not only provide a variety of communication modes (e.g., texting, cell phone conversation, and online instant messaging), but also detailed electronic traces of these communications between individuals. These electronic traces indicate that the interactions occur in temporal bursts. Here, we study intercall duration of communications of the 100,000 most active cell phone users of a Chinese mobile phone operator. We confirm that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution with an exponential cutoff at the population level but find differences when focusing on individual users. We apply statistical tests at the individual level and find that the intercall durations follow a power-law distribution for only 3,460 individuals (3.46%). The intercall durations for the majority (73.34%) follow a Weibull distribution. We quantify individual users using three measures: out-degree, percentage of outgoing calls, and communication diversity. We find that the cell phone users with a power-law duration distribution fall into three anomalous clusters: robot-based callers, telecom fraud, and telephone sales. This information is of interest to both academics and practitioners, mobile telecom operators in particular. In contrast, the individual users with a Weibull duration distribution form the fourth cluster of ordinary cell phone users. We also discover more information about the calling patterns of these four clusters (e.g., the probability that a user will call the c(r)-th most contact and the probability distribution of burst sizes). Our findings may enable a more detailed analysis of the huge body of data contained in the logs of massive users.

Bridge element deterioration rates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

This report describes the development of bridge element deterioration rates using the NYSDOT : bridge inspection database using Markov chains and Weibull-based approaches. It is observed : that Weibull-based approach is more reliable for developing b...

A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2014-06-01

Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

Inactivation kinetics of various chemical disinfectants on Aeromonas hydrophila planktonic cells and biofilms.

PubMed

Jahid, Iqbal Kabir; Ha, Sang-Do

2014-05-01

The present article focuses on the inactivation kinetics of various disinfectants including ethanol, sodium hypochlorite, hydrogen peroxide, peracetic acid, and benzalkonium chloride against Aeromonas hydrophila biofilms and planktonic cells. Efficacy was determined by viable plate count and compared using a modified Weibull model. The removal of the biofilms matrix was determined by the crystal violet assay and was confirmed by field-emission scanning electron microscope. The results revealed that all the experimental data and calculated Weibull α (scale) and β (shape) parameters had a good fit, as the R(2) values were between 0.88 and 0.99. Biofilms are more resistant to disinfectants than planktonic cells. Ethanol (70%) was the most effective in killing cells in the biofilms and significantly reduced (p<0.05) the biofilms matrix. The Weibull parameter b-value correlated (R(2)=0.6835) with the biofilms matrix removal. The present findings deduce that the Weibull model is suitable to determine biofilms matrix reduction as well as the effectiveness of chemical disinfectants on biofilms. The study showed that the Weibull model could successfully be used on food and food contact surfaces to determine the exact contact time for killing biofilms-forming foodborne pathogens.

Mechanics-based statistics of failure risk of quasibrittle structures and size effect on safety factors.

PubMed

Bazant, Zdenĕk P; Pang, Sze-Dai

2006-06-20

In mechanical design as well as protection from various natural hazards, one must ensure an extremely low failure probability such as 10(-6). How to achieve that goal is adequately understood only for the limiting cases of brittle or ductile structures. Here we present a theory to do that for the transitional class of quasibrittle structures, having brittle constituents and characterized by nonnegligible size of material inhomogeneities. We show that the probability distribution of strength of the representative volume element of material is governed by the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution of atomic energies and the stress dependence of activation energy barriers; that it is statistically modeled by a hierarchy of series and parallel couplings; and that it consists of a broad Gaussian core having a grafted far-left power-law tail with zero threshold and amplitude depending on temperature and load duration. With increasing structure size, the Gaussian core shrinks and Weibull tail expands according to the weakest-link model for a finite chain of representative volume elements. The model captures experimentally observed deviations of the strength distribution from Weibull distribution and of the mean strength scaling law from a power law. These deviations can be exploited for verification and calibration. The proposed theory will increase the safety of concrete structures, composite parts of aircraft or ships, microelectronic components, microelectromechanical systems, prosthetic devices, etc. It also will improve protection against hazards such as landslides, avalanches, ice breaks, and rock or soil failures.

Characterization of raw and alkali treated new natural cellulosic fiber from Coccinia grandis.L.

PubMed

Senthamaraikannan, P; Kathiresan, M

2018-04-15

The physical, chemical, tensile, crystalline, thermal, and surface morphological properties of raw and alkali treated Coccinia Grandis.L Fibers (CGFs) were characterized for the first time in this work. The results of the chemical analysis indicate that, after alkali treatment, the cellulose content of CGFs increased whereas hemicelluloses, lignin and wax contents decreased. This directly influenced the tensile strength, crystallinity index, thermal stability and the roughness of alkali-treated CGFs. The thermal stability and activation energy of the CGFs improved from 213.4 °C to 220.6 °C and 67.02 kJ/mol to 73.43 kJ/mol, respectively, due to alkali treatment. The statistical approach, Weibull distribution was adopted to analyze the tensile properties. The improved properties of the alkali treated CGF indicate that it could be an appropriate material for reinforcement in polymer composites. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint analysis of air pollution in street canyons in St. Petersburg and Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genikhovich, E. L.; Ziv, A. D.; Iakovleva, E. A.; Palmgren, F.; Berkowicz, R.

The bi-annual data set of concentrations of several traffic-related air pollutants, measured continuously in street canyons in St. Petersburg and Copenhagen, is analysed jointly using different statistical techniques. Annual mean concentrations of NO 2, NO x and, especially, benzene are found systematically higher in St. Petersburg than in Copenhagen but for ozone the situation is opposite. In both cities probability distribution functions (PDFs) of concentrations and their daily or weekly extrema are fitted with the Weibull and double exponential distributions, respectively. Sample estimates of bi-variate distributions of concentrations, concentration roses, and probabilities of concentration of one pollutant being extreme given that another one reaches its extremum are presented in this paper as well as auto- and co-spectra. It is demonstrated that there is a reasonably high correlation between seasonally averaged concentrations of pollutants in St. Petersburg and Copenhagen.

Relating design and environmental variables to reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolarik, William J.; Landers, Thomas L.

The combination of space application and nuclear power source demands high reliability hardware. The possibilities of failure, either an inability to provide power or a catastrophic accident, must be minimized. Nuclear power experiences on the ground have led to highly sophisticated probabilistic risk assessment procedures, most of which require quantitative information to adequately assess such risks. In the area of hardware risk analysis, reliability information plays a key role. One of the lessons learned from the Three Mile Island experience is that thorough analyses of critical components are essential. Nuclear grade equipment shows some reliability advantages over commercial. However, no statistically significant difference has been found. A recent study pertaining to spacecraft electronics reliability, examined some 2500 malfunctions on more than 300 aircraft. The study classified the equipment failures into seven general categories. Design deficiencies and lack of environmental protection accounted for about half of all failures. Within each class, limited reliability modeling was performed using a Weibull failure model.

Selecting statistical model and optimum maintenance policy: a case study of hydraulic pump.

PubMed

Ruhi, S; Karim, M R

2016-01-01

Proper maintenance policy can play a vital role for effective investigation of product reliability. Every engineered object such as product, plant or infrastructure needs preventive and corrective maintenance. In this paper we look at a real case study. It deals with the maintenance of hydraulic pumps used in excavators by a mining company. We obtain the data that the owner had collected and carry out an analysis and building models for pump failures. The data consist of both failure and censored lifetimes of the hydraulic pump. Different competitive mixture models are applied to analyze a set of maintenance data of a hydraulic pump. Various characteristics of the mixture models, such as the cumulative distribution function, reliability function, mean time to failure, etc. are estimated to assess the reliability of the pump. Akaike Information Criterion, adjusted Anderson-Darling test statistic, Kolmogrov-Smirnov test statistic and root mean square error are considered to select the suitable models among a set of competitive models. The maximum likelihood estimation method via the EM algorithm is applied mainly for estimating the parameters of the models and reliability related quantities. In this study, it is found that a threefold mixture model (Weibull-Normal-Exponential) fits well for the hydraulic pump failures data set. This paper also illustrates how a suitable statistical model can be applied to estimate the optimum maintenance period at a minimum cost of a hydraulic pump.

Statistical analysis of road-vehicle-driver interaction as an enabler to designing behavioural models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakravarty, T.; Chowdhury, A.; Ghose, A.; Bhaumik, C.; Balamuralidhar, P.

2014-03-01

Telematics form an important technology enabler for intelligent transportation systems. By deploying on-board diagnostic devices, the signatures of vehicle vibration along with its location and time are recorded. Detailed analyses of the collected signatures offer deep insights into the state of the objects under study. Towards that objective, we carried out experiments by deploying telematics device in one of the office bus that ferries employees to office and back. Data is being collected from 3-axis accelerometer, GPS, speed and the time for all the journeys. In this paper, we present initial results of the above exercise by applying statistical methods to derive information through systematic analysis of the data collected over four months. It is demonstrated that the higher order derivative of the measured Z axis acceleration samples display the properties Weibull distribution when the time axis is replaced by the amplitude of such processed acceleration data. Such an observation offers us a method to predict future behaviour where deviations from prediction are classified as context-based aberrations or progressive degradation of the system. In addition we capture the relationship between speed of the vehicle and median of the jerk energy samples using regression analysis. Such results offer an opportunity to develop a robust method to model road-vehicle interaction thereby enabling us to predict such like driving behaviour and condition based maintenance etc.

Geosocial process and its regularities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikulina, Marina; Vikulin, Alexander; Dolgaya, Anna

2015-04-01

Natural disasters and social events (wars, revolutions, genocides, epidemics, fires, etc.) accompany each other throughout human civilization, thus reflecting the close relationship of these phenomena that are seemingly of different nature. In order to study this relationship authors compiled and analyzed the list of the 2,400 natural disasters and social phenomena weighted by their magnitude that occurred during the last XXXVI centuries of our history. Statistical analysis was performed separately for each aggregate (natural disasters and social phenomena), and for particular statistically representative types of events. There was 5 + 5 = 10 types. It is shown that the numbers of events in the list are distributed by logarithmic law: the bigger the event, the less likely it happens. For each type of events and each aggregate the existence of periodicities with periods of 280 ± 60 years was established. Statistical analysis of the time intervals between adjacent events for both aggregates showed good agreement with Weibull-Gnedenko distribution with shape parameter less than 1, which is equivalent to the conclusion about the grouping of events at small time intervals. Modeling of statistics of time intervals with Pareto distribution allowed to identify the emergent property for all events in the aggregate. This result allowed the authors to make conclusion about interaction between natural disasters and social phenomena. The list of events compiled by authors and first identified properties of cyclicity, grouping and interaction process reflected by this list is the basis of modeling essentially unified geosocial process at high enough statistical level. Proof of interaction between "lifeless" Nature and Society is fundamental and provided a new approach to forecasting demographic crises with taking into account both natural disasters and social phenomena.

Evidence of the most stretchable egg sac silk stalk, of the European spider of the year Meta menardi.

PubMed

Lepore, Emiliano; Marchioro, Andrea; Isaia, Marco; Buehler, Markus J; Pugno, Nicola M

2012-01-01

Spider silks display generally strong mechanical properties, even if differences between species and within the same species can be observed. While many different types of silks have been tested, the mechanical properties of stalks of silk taken from the egg sac of the cave spider Meta menardi have not yet been analyzed. Meta menardi has recently been chosen as the "European spider of the year 2012", from the European Society of Arachnology. Here we report a study where silk stalks were collected directly from several caves in the north-west of Italy. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) images showed that stalks are made up of a large number of threads, each of them with diameter of 6.03 ± 0.58 µm. The stalks were strained at the constant rate of 2 mm/min, using a tensile testing machine. The observed maximum stress, strain and toughness modulus, defined as the area under the stress-strain curve, are 0.64 GPa, 751% and 130.7 MJ/m(3), respectively. To the best of our knowledge, such an observed huge elongation has never been reported for egg sac silk stalks and suggests a huge unrolling microscopic mechanism of the macroscopic stalk that, as a continuation of the protective egg sac, is expected to be composed by fibres very densely and randomly packed. The Weibull statistics was used to analyze the results from mechanical testing, and an average value of Weibull modulus (m) is deduced to be in the range of 1.5-1.8 with a Weibull scale parameter (σ(0)) in the range of 0.33-0.41 GPa, showing a high coefficient of correlation (R(2) = 0.97).

Evidence of the Most Stretchable Egg Sac Silk Stalk, of the European Spider of the Year Meta menardi

PubMed Central

Lepore, Emiliano; Marchioro, Andrea; Isaia, Marco; Buehler, Markus J.; Pugno, Nicola M.

2012-01-01

Spider silks display generally strong mechanical properties, even if differences between species and within the same species can be observed. While many different types of silks have been tested, the mechanical properties of stalks of silk taken from the egg sac of the cave spider Meta menardi have not yet been analyzed. Meta menardi has recently been chosen as the “European spider of the year 2012”, from the European Society of Arachnology. Here we report a study where silk stalks were collected directly from several caves in the north-west of Italy. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) images showed that stalks are made up of a large number of threads, each of them with diameter of 6.03±0.58 µm. The stalks were strained at the constant rate of 2 mm/min, using a tensile testing machine. The observed maximum stress, strain and toughness modulus, defined as the area under the stress-strain curve, are 0.64 GPa, 751% and 130.7 MJ/m3, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, such an observed huge elongation has never been reported for egg sac silk stalks and suggests a huge unrolling microscopic mechanism of the macroscopic stalk that, as a continuation of the protective egg sac, is expected to be composed by fibres very densely and randomly packed. The Weibull statistics was used to analyze the results from mechanical testing, and an average value of Weibull modulus (m) is deduced to be in the range of 1.5–1.8 with a Weibull scale parameter (σ 0) in the range of 0.33–0.41 GPa, showing a high coefficient of correlation (R2 = 0.97). PMID:22347380

Design prediction for long term stress rupture service of composite pressure vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Ernest Y.

1992-01-01

Extensive stress rupture studies on glass composites and Kevlar composites were conducted by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory beginning in the late 1960's and extending to about 8 years in some cases. Some of the data from these studies published over the years were incomplete or were tainted by spurious failures, such as grip slippage. Updated data sets were defined for both fiberglass and Kevlar composite stand test specimens. These updated data are analyzed in this report by a convenient form of the bivariate Weibull distribution, to establish a consistent set of design prediction charts that may be used as a conservative basis for predicting the stress rupture life of composite pressure vessels. The updated glass composite data exhibit an invariant Weibull modulus with lifetime. The data are analyzed in terms of homologous service load (referenced to the observed median strength). The equations relating life, homologous load, and probability are given, and corresponding design prediction charts are presented. A similar approach is taken for Kevlar composites, where the updated stand data do show a turndown tendency at long life accompanied by a corresponding change (increase) of the Weibull modulus. The turndown characteristic is not present in stress rupture test data of Kevlar pressure vessels. A modification of the stress rupture equations is presented to incorporate a latent, but limited, strength drop, and design prediction charts are presented that incorporate such behavior. The methods presented utilize Cartesian plots of the probability distributions (which are a more natural display for the design engineer), based on median normalized data that are independent of statistical parameters and are readily defined for any set of test data.

Reliability Analysis of Brittle Material Structures - Including MEMS(?) - With the CARES/Life Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

2002-01-01

Brittle materials are being used, or considered, for a wide variety of high tech applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts. thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and MEMS. Designing components to sustain repeated load without fracturing while using the minimum amount of material requires the use of a probabilistic design methodology. The CARES/Life code provides a general-purpose analysis tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. For this presentation an interview of the CARES/Life program will be provided. Emphasis will be placed on describing the latest enhancements to the code for reliability analysis with time varying loads and temperatures (fully transient reliability analysis). Also, early efforts in investigating the validity of using Weibull statistics, the basis of the CARES/Life program, to characterize the strength of MEMS structures will be described as as well as the version of CARES/Life for MEMS (CARES/MEMS) being prepared which incorporates single crystal and edge flaw reliability analysis capability. It is hoped this talk will open a dialog for potential collaboration in the area of MEMS testing and life prediction.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2013-01-01

A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg- Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application.

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Optimized lower leg injury probability curves from post-mortem human subject tests under axial impacts

PubMed Central

Yoganandan, Narayan; Arun, Mike W.J.; Pintar, Frank A.; Szabo, Aniko

2015-01-01

Objective Derive optimum injury probability curves to describe human tolerance of the lower leg using parametric survival analysis. Methods The study re-examined lower leg PMHS data from a large group of specimens. Briefly, axial loading experiments were conducted by impacting the plantar surface of the foot. Both injury and non-injury tests were included in the testing process. They were identified by pre- and posttest radiographic images and detailed dissection following the impact test. Fractures included injuries to the calcaneus and distal tibia-fibula complex (including pylon), representing severities at the Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) level 2+. For the statistical analysis, peak force was chosen as the main explanatory variable and the age was chosen as the co-variable. Censoring statuses depended on experimental outcomes. Parameters from the parametric survival analysis were estimated using the maximum likelihood approach and the dfbetas statistic was used to identify overly influential samples. The best fit from the Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic distributions was based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained for the optimum injury probability distribution. The relative sizes of the interval were determined at predetermined risk levels. Quality indices were described at each of the selected probability levels. Results The mean age, stature and weight: 58.2 ± 15.1 years, 1.74 ± 0.08 m and 74.9 ± 13.8 kg. Excluding all overly influential tests resulted in the tightest confidence intervals. The Weibull distribution was the most optimum function compared to the other two distributions. A majority of quality indices were in the good category for this optimum distribution when results were extracted for 25-, 45- and 65-year-old at five, 25 and 50% risk levels age groups for lower leg fracture. For 25, 45 and 65 years, peak forces were 8.1, 6.5, and 5.1 kN at 5% risk; 9.6, 7.7, and 6.1 kN at 25% risk; and 10.4, 8.3, and 6.6 kN at 50% risk, respectively. Conclusions This study derived axial loading-induced injury risk curves based on survival analysis using peak force and specimen age; adopting different censoring schemes; considering overly influential samples in the analysis; and assessing the quality of the distribution at discrete probability levels. Because procedures used in the present survival analysis are accepted by international automotive communities, current optimum human injury probability distributions can be used at all risk levels with more confidence in future crashworthiness applications for automotive and other disciplines. PMID:25307381

The influence of Y-TZP surface treatment on topography and ceramic/resin cement interfacial fracture toughness.

PubMed

Paes, P N G; Bastian, F L; Jardim, P M

2017-09-01

Consider the efficacy of glass infiltration etching (SIE) treatment as a procedure to modify the zirconia surface resulting in higher interfacial fracture toughness. Y-TZP was subjected to 5 different surface treatments conditions consisting of no treatment (G1), SIE followed by hydrofluoric acid treatment (G2), heat treated at 750°C (G3), hydrofluoric acid treated (G4) and airborne-particle abrasion with alumina particles (G5). The effect of surface treatment on roughness was evaluated by Atomic Force Microscopy providing three different parameters: R a , R sk and surface area variation. The ceramic/resin cement interface was analyzed by Fracture Mechanics K I test with failure mode determined by fractographic analysis. Weibull's analysis was also performed to evaluate the structural integrity of the adhesion zone. G2 and G4 specimens showed very similar, and high R a values but different surface area variation (33% for G2 and 13% for G4) and they presented the highest fracture toughness (K IC ). Weibull's analysis showed G2 (SIE) tendency to exhibit higher K IC values than the other groups but with more data scatter and a higher early failure probability than G4 specimens. Selective glass infiltration etching surface treatment was effective in modifying the zirconia surface roughness, increasing the bonding area and hence the mechanical imbrications at the zirconia/resin cement interface resulting in higher fracture toughness (K IC ) values with higher K IC values obtained when failure probability above 20% was expected (Weibull's distribution) among all the experimental groups. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

A Modified Cramer-von Mises and Anderson-Darling Test for the Weibull Distribution with Unknown Location and Scale Parameters.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

preventing the generation of 16 6 negative location estimators. Because of the invariant pro- perty of the EDF statistics, this transformation will...likelihood. If the parameter estimation method developed by Harter and Moore is used, care must be taken to prevent the location estimators from being...vs A 2 Critical Values, Level-.Ol, n-30 128 , 0 6N m m • w - APPENDIX E Computer Prgrams 129 Program to Calculate the Cramer-von Mises Critical Values

Statistical properties of world investment networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Dong-Ming; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2009-06-01

We have performed a detailed investigation on the world investment networks constructed from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) data of the International Monetary Fund, ranging from 2001 to 2006. The distributions of degrees and node strengths are scale-free. The weight distributions can be well modeled by the Weibull distribution. The maximum flow spanning trees of the world investment networks possess two universal allometric scaling relations, independent of time and the investment type. The topological scaling exponent is 1.17±0.02 and the flow scaling exponent is 1.03±0.01.

Reproducibility of structural strength and stiffness for graphite-epoxy aircraft spoilers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, W. E.; Reese, C. D.

1978-01-01

Structural strength reproducibility of graphite epoxy composite spoilers for the Boeing 737 aircraft was evaluated by statically loading fifteen spoilers to failure at conditions simulating aerodynamic loads. Spoiler strength and stiffness data were statistically modeled using a two parameter Weibull distribution function. Shape parameter values calculated for the composite spoiler strength and stiffness were within the range of corresponding shape parameter values calculated for material property data of composite laminates. This agreement showed that reproducibility of full scale component structural properties was within the reproducibility range of data from material property tests.

The comparison of proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models in analyzing the first birth interval survival data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faruk, Alfensi

2018-03-01

Survival analysis is a branch of statistics, which is focussed on the analysis of time- to-event data. In multivariate survival analysis, the proportional hazards (PH) is the most popular model in order to analyze the effects of several covariates on the survival time. However, the assumption of constant hazards in PH model is not always satisfied by the data. The violation of the PH assumption leads to the misinterpretation of the estimation results and decreasing the power of the related statistical tests. On the other hand, the accelerated failure time (AFT) models do not assume the constant hazards in the survival data as in PH model. The AFT models, moreover, can be used as the alternative to PH model if the constant hazards assumption is violated. The objective of this research was to compare the performance of PH model and the AFT models in analyzing the significant factors affecting the first birth interval (FBI) data in Indonesia. In this work, the discussion was limited to three AFT models which were based on Weibull, exponential, and log-normal distribution. The analysis by using graphical approach and a statistical test showed that the non-proportional hazards exist in the FBI data set. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the log-normal AFT model was the most appropriate model among the other considered models. Results of the best fitted model (log-normal AFT model) showed that the covariates such as women’s educational level, husband’s educational level, contraceptive knowledge, access to mass media, wealth index, and employment status were among factors affecting the FBI in Indonesia.

Cure modeling in real-time prediction: How much does it help?

PubMed

Ying, Gui-Shuang; Zhang, Qiang; Lan, Yu; Li, Yimei; Heitjan, Daniel F

2017-08-01

Various parametric and nonparametric modeling approaches exist for real-time prediction in time-to-event clinical trials. Recently, Chen (2016 BMC Biomedical Research Methodology 16) proposed a prediction method based on parametric cure-mixture modeling, intending to cover those situations where it appears that a non-negligible fraction of subjects is cured. In this article we apply a Weibull cure-mixture model to create predictions, demonstrating the approach in RTOG 0129, a randomized trial in head-and-neck cancer. We compare the ultimate realized data in RTOG 0129 to interim predictions from a Weibull cure-mixture model, a standard Weibull model without a cure component, and a nonparametric model based on the Bayesian bootstrap. The standard Weibull model predicted that events would occur earlier than the Weibull cure-mixture model, but the difference was unremarkable until late in the trial when evidence for a cure became clear. Nonparametric predictions often gave undefined predictions or infinite prediction intervals, particularly at early stages of the trial. Simulations suggest that cure modeling can yield better-calibrated prediction intervals when there is a cured component, or the appearance of a cured component, but at a substantial cost in the average width of the intervals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Age Specific Incidence Anomaly Suggests that Cancers Originate During Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brody, James P.

The accumulation of genetic alterations causes cancers. Since this accumulation takes time, the incidence of most cancers is thought to increase exponentially with age. However, careful measurements of the age-specific incidence show that the specific incidence for many forms of cancer rises with age to a maximum, and then decreases. This decrease in the age-specific incidence with age is an anomaly. Understanding this anomaly should lead to a better understanding of how tumors develop and grow. Here we derive the shape of the age-specific incidence, showing that it should follow the shape of a Weibull distribution. Measurements indicate that the age-specific incidence for colon cancer does indeed follow a Weibull distribution. This analysis leads to the interpretation that for colon cancer two subpopulations exist in the general population: a susceptible population and an immune population. Colon tumors will only occur in the susceptible population. This analysis is consistent with the developmental origins of disease hypothesis and generalizable to many other common forms of cancer.

Comparative Fatigue Lives of Rubber and PVC Wiper Cylindrical Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlcek, Brian L.; Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Savage, Michael

2002-01-01

Three coating materials for rotating cylindrical-coated wiping rollers were fatigue tested in 2 Intaglio printing presses. The coatings were a hard, cross-linked, plasticized PVC thermoset (P-series); a plasticized PVC (A-series); and a hard, nitryl rubber (R-series). Both 2- and 3-parameter Weibull analyses as well as a cost-benefit analysis were performed. The mean value of life for the R-series coating is 24 and 9 times longer than the P- and A-series coatings, respectively. Both the cost and replacement rate for the R-series coating was significantly less than those for the P- and A-series coatings. At a very high probability of survival the R-series coating is approximately 2 and 6 times the lives of the P- and A-series, respectively, before the first failure occurs. Where all coatings are run to failure, using the mean (life) time between removal (MTBR) for each coating to calculate the number of replacements and costs provides qualitatively similar results to those using a Weibull analysis.

The Wind Energy Potential of Kurdistan, Iran

PubMed Central

Arefi, Farzad; Moshtagh, Jamal; Moradi, Mohammad

2014-01-01

In the current work by using statistical methods and available software, the wind energy assessment of prone regions for installation of wind turbines in, Qorveh, has been investigated. Information was obtained from weather stations of Baneh, Bijar, Zarina, Saqez, Sanandaj, Qorveh, and Marivan. The monthly average and maximum of wind speed were investigated between the years 2000–2010 and the related curves were drawn. The Golobad curve (direction and percentage of dominant wind and calm wind as monthly rate) between the years 1997–2000 was analyzed and drawn with plot software. The ten-minute speed (at 10, 30, and 60 m height) and direction (at 37.5 and 10 m height) wind data were collected from weather stations of Iranian new energy organization. The wind speed distribution during one year was evaluated by using Weibull probability density function (two-parametrical), and the Weibull curve histograms were drawn by MATLAB software. According to the average wind speed of stations and technical specifications of the types of turbines, the suitable wind turbine for the station was selected. Finally, the Divandareh and Qorveh sites with favorable potential were considered for installation of wind turbines and construction of wind farms. PMID:27355042

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erin V.

2007-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2003-01-01

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Verification of Ceramic Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behar-Lafenetre, Stephanie; Cornillon, Laurence; Rancurel, Michael; De Graaf, Dennis; Hartmann, Peter; Coe, Graham; Laine, Benoit

2012-07-01

In the framework of the “Mechanical Design and Verification Methodologies for Ceramic Structures” contract [1] awarded by ESA, Thales Alenia Space has investigated literature and practices in affiliated industries to propose a methodological guideline for verification of ceramic spacecraft and instrument structures. It has been written in order to be applicable to most types of ceramic or glass-ceramic materials - typically Cesic®, HBCesic®, Silicon Nitride, Silicon Carbide and ZERODUR®. The proposed guideline describes the activities to be performed at material level in order to cover all the specific aspects of ceramics (Weibull distribution, brittle behaviour, sub-critical crack growth). Elementary tests and their post-processing methods are described, and recommendations for optimization of the test plan are given in order to have a consistent database. The application of this method is shown on an example in a dedicated article [7]. Then the verification activities to be performed at system level are described. This includes classical verification activities based on relevant standard (ECSS Verification [4]), plus specific analytical, testing and inspection features. The analysis methodology takes into account the specific behaviour of ceramic materials, especially the statistical distribution of failures (Weibull) and the method to transfer it from elementary data to a full-scale structure. The demonstration of the efficiency of this method is described in a dedicated article [8]. The verification is completed by classical full-scale testing activities. Indications about proof testing, case of use and implementation are given and specific inspection and protection measures are described. These additional activities are necessary to ensure the required reliability. The aim of the guideline is to describe how to reach the same reliability level as for structures made of more classical materials (metals, composites).

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Lifetime assessment by intermittent inspection under the mixture Weibull power law model with application to XLPE cables.

PubMed

Hirose, H

1997-01-01

This paper proposes a new treatment for electrical insulation degradation. Some types of insulation which have been used under various circumstances are considered to degrade at various rates in accordance with their stress circumstances. The cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulated cables inspected by major Japanese electric companies clearly indicate such phenomena. By assuming that the inspected specimen is sampled from one of the clustered groups, a mixed degradation model can be constructed. Since the degradation of the insulation under common circumstances is considered to follow a Weibull distribution, a mixture model and a Weibull power law can be combined. This is called The mixture Weibull power law model. By using the maximum likelihood estimation for the newly proposed model to Japanese 22 and 33 kV insulation class cables, they are clustered into a certain number of groups by using the AIC and the generalized likelihood ratio test method. The reliability of the cables at specified years are assessed.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN STRATEGY FOR THE WEIBULL DOSE RESPONSE MODEL (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of the research was to determine optimum design point allocation for estimation of relative yield losses from ozone pollution when the true and fitted yield-ozone dose response relationship follows the Weibull. The optimum design is dependent on the values of the We...

Power transfer systems for future navy helicopters. Final report 25 Jun 70--28 Jun 72

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bossler, R.B. Jr.

1972-11-01

The purpose of this program was to conduct an analysis of helicopter power transfer systems (pts), both conventional and advanced concept type, with the objective of reducing specific weights and improving reliability beyond present values. The analysis satisfied requirements specified for a 200,000 pound cargo transport helicopter (CTH), a 70,000 pound heavy assault helicopter, and a 15,000 pound non-combat search and rescue helicopter. Four selected gearing systems (out of seven studied), optimized for lightest weight and equal reliability for the CTH, using component proportioning via stress and stiffness equations, had no significant difference between their aircraft payloads. All optimized ptsmore » were approximately 70% of statistically predicted weight. Reliability increase is predicted via gearbox derating using Weibull relationships. Among advanced concepts, the Turbine Integrated Geared Rotor was competitive for weight, technology availability and reliability increase but handicapped by a special engine requirement. The warm cycle system was found not competitive. Helicopter parametric weight analysis is shown. Advanced development Plans are presented for the pts for the CTH, including total pts system, selected pts components, and scale model flight testing in a Kaman HH2 helicopter.« less

Hazard function analysis for flood planning under nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-05-01

The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) involves a probabilistic assessment of the "time to failure" or "return period," T, of an event of interest. HFA is used in epidemiology, manufacturing, medicine, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. For a stationary process, the probability distribution function (pdf) of the return period always follows an exponential distribution, the same is not true for nonstationary processes. When the process of interest, X, exhibits nonstationary behavior, HFA can provide a complementary approach to risk analysis with analytical tools particularly useful for hydrological applications. After a general introduction to HFA, we describe a new mathematical linkage between the magnitude of the flood event, X, and its return period, T, for nonstationary processes. We derive the probabilistic properties of T for a nonstationary one-parameter exponential model of X, and then use both Monte-Carlo simulation and HFA to generalize the behavior of T when X arises from a nonstationary two-parameter lognormal distribution. For this case, our findings suggest that a two-parameter Weibull distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the pdf of T. We document how HFA can provide an alternative approach to characterize the probabilistic properties of both nonstationary flood series and the resulting pdf of T.

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability. Part 1: Retrieved cloud liquid water path at three ARM sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Dong; Campos, Edwin; Liu, Yangang

2014-09-01

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability are examined for their dependence on averaging scales and best representation of probability density function with the decade-long retrieval products of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from the tropical western Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The statistical moments of LWP show some seasonal variation at the SGP and NSA sites but not much at the TWP site. It is found that the standard deviation, relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean), and skewness all quickly increase with the averaging window size when the window size is small and become more or less flat when the window size exceeds 12 h. On average, the cloud LWP at the TWP site has the largest values of standard deviation, relative dispersion, and skewness, whereas the NSA site exhibits the least. Correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the mean LWP and the standard deviation. The skewness is found to be closely related to the relative dispersion with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. The comparison further shows that the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions reasonably explain the observed relationship between skewness and relative dispersion over a wide range of scales.

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability. Part 1: Retrieved cloud liquid water path at three ARM sites: Observed cloud variability at ARM sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Dong; Campos, Edwin; Liu, Yangang

2014-09-17

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability are examined for their dependence on averaging scales and best representation of probability density function with the decade-long retrieval products of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from the tropical western Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The statistical moments of LWP show some seasonal variation at the SGP and NSA sites but not much at the TWP site. It is found that the standard deviation, relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean), and skewness allmore » quickly increase with the averaging window size when the window size is small and become more or less flat when the window size exceeds 12 h. On average, the cloud LWP at the TWP site has the largest values of standard deviation, relative dispersion, and skewness, whereas the NSA site exhibits the least. Correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the mean LWP and the standard deviation. The skewness is found to be closely related to the relative dispersion with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. The comparison further shows that the log normal, Weibull, and gamma distributions reasonably explain the observed relationship between skewness and relative dispersion over a wide range of scales.« less

On the gap between an empirical distribution and an exponential distribution of waiting times for price changes in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazuka, Naoya

2007-03-01

We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high-frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well approximated by a Weibull distribution rather than an exponential distribution in the non-asymptotic regime. Moreover, we quantitatively evaluate how much an empirical data is far from an exponential distribution using a Weibull fit. Finally, we discuss a transition between a Weibull-law and a power-law in the long time asymptotic regime.

Evolution of a detailed physiological model to simulate the gastrointestinal transit and absorption process in humans, part II: extension to describe performance of solid dosage forms.

PubMed

Thelen, Kirstin; Coboeken, Katrin; Willmann, Stefan; Dressman, Jennifer B; Lippert, Jörg

2012-03-01

The physiological absorption model presented in part I of this work is now extended to account for dosage-form-dependent gastrointestinal (GI) transit as well as disintegration and dissolution processes of various immediate-release and modified-release dosage forms. Empirical functions of the Weibull type were fitted to experimental in vitro dissolution profiles of solid dosage forms for eight test compounds (aciclovir, caffeine, cimetidine, diclofenac, furosemide, paracetamol, phenobarbital, and theophylline). The Weibull functions were then implemented into the model to predict mean plasma concentration-time profiles of the various dosage forms. On the basis of these dissolution functions, pharmacokinetics (PK) of six model drugs was predicted well. In the case of diclofenac, deviations between predicted and observed plasma concentrations were attributable to the large variability in gastric emptying time of the enteric-coated tablets. Likewise, oral PK of furosemide was found to be predominantly governed by the gastric emptying patterns. It is concluded that the revised model for GI transit and absorption was successfully integrated with dissolution functions of the Weibull type, enabling prediction of in vivo PK profiles from in vitro dissolution data. It facilitates a comparative analysis of the parameters contributing to oral drug absorption and is thus a powerful tool for formulation design. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian Weibull tree models for survival analysis of clinico-genomic data

PubMed Central

Clarke, Jennifer; West, Mike

2008-01-01

An important goal of research involving gene expression data for outcome prediction is to establish the ability of genomic data to define clinically relevant risk factors. Recent studies have demonstrated that microarray data can successfully cluster patients into low- and high-risk categories. However, the need exists for models which examine how genomic predictors interact with existing clinical factors and provide personalized outcome predictions. We have developed clinico-genomic tree models for survival outcomes which use recursive partitioning to subdivide the current data set into homogeneous subgroups of patients, each with a specific Weibull survival distribution. These trees can provide personalized predictive distributions of the probability of survival for individuals of interest. Our strategy is to fit multiple models; within each model we adopt a prior on the Weibull scale parameter and update this prior via Empirical Bayes whenever the sample is split at a given node. The decision to split is based on a Bayes factor criterion. The resulting trees are weighted according to their relative likelihood values and predictions are made by averaging over models. In a pilot study of survival in advanced stage ovarian cancer we demonstrate that clinical and genomic data are complementary sources of information relevant to survival, and we use the exploratory nature of the trees to identify potential genomic biomarkers worthy of further study. PMID:18618012

A Constitutive Model for Creep Lifetime of PBO Braided Cord

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, W. J.

2007-01-01

A constitutive model to describe the creep lifetime of PBO braided cord has been developed and fit to laboratory data. The model follows an approach proposed for p-aramid cord in similar applications, and has a Boltzman-type representation that arises from consideration of the failure phenomenon mechanism. The data were obtained using a hydraulic-type universal testing machine, and were analyzed according to Weibull statistics using commercially-available software. The application of concern to the author is NASA's Ultra- Long Duration Balloon and other gossamer spacecraft, but the motivations for the related p-aramid works suggest broader interest.

The statistical theory of the fracture of fragile bodies. Part 2: The integral equation method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kittl, P.

1984-01-01

It is demonstrated how with the aid of a bending test, the Weibull fracture risk function can be determined - without postulating its analytical form - by resolving an integral equation. The respective solutions for rectangular and circular section beams are given. In the first case the function is expressed as an algorithm and in the second, in the form of series. Taking into account that the cumulative fracture probability appearing in the solution to the integral equation must be continuous and monotonically increasing, any case of fabrication or selection of samples can be treated.

Identification of tensile strength properties of abaca fiber by weakest-linkage approach-statistic property of fiber diameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suardi; Homma, H.; Abubakar

2018-02-01

Fiber reinforced plastics or metals (FRPor FRM) are usually ecological materials, because their specific strength defined as the strengthperunit mass is much larger than metal, and weight ofmachines and structuresfor transport made ofFRP can be significantly reduced so that the consumption of fossil fuel scan be saved to result in tremendous reduction of CO2emissions. However, when we consider life cycle assessment (LCA) of synthetic fibers like carbon fiber and glass fiber, we can recognize much CO2 emission in production of these fibers. Therefore, more ecological reinforcement fibers must be developed. For this end, we should utilization cellulose fibers derived from plant tissue structure as an alternative fibers for synthetic fibers, which are considered as carbon neutral materials, and natural degraded material. This study selectsabaca fiber, which is a natural fiber and is abundant in Indonesia, but its usagehas not been optimized for engineering material. The purpose of this study is to identify the mechanical strength of a single abaca fiber by statistical approach. First, weakest link theory and Weibull theory are used to discuss experimental data. 90 specimens of almost identical geometry and biological aspects are tested under tension. These data are analyzed by Weibull theory or other statistical theory. Final target is to look into optimal method to reduce scatter ratio, ratio of standard deviation to mean value, of less than 0.1, which is the level of metallic materials. If we can reduce scatter ration to such level, we can design machines and structures using abaca fiber in the same way as carbon fibers or glass fibers. Summary of Diameter Measurement the all mean value is 0.1 and standardeviasi. The t-Test showed that mean value of each part is estimated as sampling from group with the same mean value, at confidence level of 99%.

An evaluation of percentile and maximum likelihood estimators of weibull paremeters

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; Tommy R. Dell

1985-01-01

Two methods of estimating the three-parameter Weibull distribution were evaluated by computer simulation and field data comparison. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLB) with bias correction were calculated with the computer routine FITTER (Bailey 1974); percentile estimators (PCT) were those proposed by Zanakis (1979). The MLB estimators had superior smaller bias and...

Mortality profiles of Rhodnius prolixus (Heteroptera: Reduviidae), vector of Chagas disease.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Hernandez, Maria-Josefina; Revilla, Tomás A; Rodríguez, Diego J; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2004-10-01

Life table data of Rhodnius prolixus (Heteroptera: Reduviidae) kept at laboratory conditions were analysed in search for mortality patterns. Gompertz and Weibull mortality models seem adequate to explain the sigmoid shape of the survivorship curve. A significant fit was obtained with both models for females (R(2) = 0.70, P < 0.0005 for the Gompertz model; R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.0005 for the Weibull model) and for males (R(2) = 0.39, P < 0.0005 for the Gompertz model; R(2) = 0.48, P < 0.0005 for the Weibull model). The mortality parameter (b) is higher for females in Gompertz and Weibull models, using smoothed and non-smoothed data (P < 0.05), revealing a significant sex mortality differential. Given the particular life history of this insect, the non-linear relationship between the force of mortality and age may have an important impact in the vectorial capacity of R. prolixus as Chagas disease vector, and its consideration should be included as an important factor in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi by triatomines.

Effects of HF Treatments on Tensile Strength of Hi-Nicalon Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.

1998-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having a dual BN/SiC surface coating, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, have been measured at room temperature. These fibers were also treated with HF for 24 h followed by tensile strength measurements. Strengths of uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers extracted from celsian matrix composites, by dissolving away the matrix in HF for 24 h, were also determined. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. The Hi-Nicalon/BN/SiC fibers showed an average strength of 3.04 q 0.53 GPa and Weibull modulus of 6.66. After HF treatments, the average strengths of the uncoated and BN/SiC coated Hi-Nicalon fibers were 2.69 +/- 0.67 GPa and 2.80 +/- 0.53 GPa and the Weibull moduli were 4.93 and 5.96, respectively. The BN/SiC coated fibers extracted from the celsian matrix composite exhibited a strength of 2.38 +/- 0.40 GPa and a Weibull modulus of 7.15. The strength of the uncoated Hi-Nicalon fibers in the composite was so severely degraded that they disintegrated into small fragments during extraction with HF. The uncoated fibers probably undergo mechanical surface damage during hot pressing of the composites. Also, the BN layer on the coated fibers acts as a compliant layer which protects the fibers from mechanical damage during composite processing. The elemental composition and thickness of the fiber coatings were deten-nined using scanning Auger analysis. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Strengths of fibers calculated using average and measured fiber diameters were in good agreement. Thus, the strength of fibers can be evaluated using an average fiber diameter instead of the measured diameter of each filament.

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Janosik, Lesley A.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1994-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.

Durability evaluation of ceramic components using CARES/LIFE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemeth, N.N.; Janosik, L.A.; Gyekenyesi, J.P.

1996-01-01

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker equation. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength andmore » fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Application of this design methodology is demonstrated using experimental data from alumina bar and disk flexure specimens, which exhibit SCG when exposed to water.« less

Performance analysis for mixed FSO/RF Nakagami-m and Exponentiated Weibull dual-hop airborne systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Zhao; Shang-hong, Zhao; Wei-hu, Zhao; Ke-fan, Chen

2017-06-01

In this paper, the performances of mixed free-space optical (FSO)/radio frequency (RF) systems are presented based on the decode-and-forward relaying. The Exponentiated Weibull fading channel with pointing error effect is adopted for the atmospheric fluctuation of FSO channel and the RF link undergoes the Nakagami-m fading. We derived the analytical expression for cumulative distribution function (CDF) of equivalent signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The novel mathematical presentations of outage probability and average bit-error-rate (BER) are developed based on the Meijer's G function. The analytical results show an accurately match to the Monte-Carlo simulation results. The outage and BER performance for the mixed system by decode-and-forward relay are investigated considering atmospheric turbulence and pointing error condition. The effect of aperture averaging is evaluated in all atmospheric turbulence conditions as well.

Thermal inactivation kinetics of hepatitis A virus in homogenized clam meat (Mercenaria mercenaria).

PubMed

Bozkurt, H; D'Souza, D H; Davidson, P M

2015-09-01

Epidemiological evidence suggests that hepatitis A virus (HAV) is the most common pathogen transmitted by bivalve molluscs such as clams, cockles, mussels and oysters. This study aimed to generate thermal inactivation kinetics for HAV as a first step to design adequate thermal processes to control clam-associated HAV outbreaks. Survivor curves and thermal death curves were generated for different treatment times (0-6 min) at different temperatures (50-72°C) and Weibull and first-order models were compared. D-values for HAV ranged from 47·37 ± 1·23 to 1·55 ± 0·12 min for the first-order model and 64·43 ± 3·47 to 1·25 ± 0·45 min for the Weibull model at temperatures from 50 to 72°C. z-Values for HAV in clams were 12·97 ± 0·59°C and 14·83 ± 0·0·28°C using the Weibull and first-order model respectively. The calculated activation energies for the first-order and Weibull model were 145 and 170 kJ mole(-1) respectively. The Weibull model described the thermal inactivation behaviour of HAV better than the first-order model. This study provides novel and precise information on thermal inactivation kinetics of HAV in homogenized clams. This will enable reliable thermal process calculations for HAV inactivation in clams and closely related seafood. © 2015 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Failure probability of three designs of zirconia crowns

PubMed Central

Ramos, G. Freitas; Monteiro, E. Barbosa Carmona; Bottino, M.A.; Zhang, Y.; de Melo, R. Marques

2015-01-01

Objectives This study utilized a 2-parameter Weibull analysis for evaluation of lifetime of fully or partially porcelain-/glaze-veneered zirconia crowns after fatigue test. Methods Sixty first molars were selected and prepared for full-coverage crowns with three different designs(n = 20): Traditional –crowns with zirconia framework covered with feldspathic porcelain; Modified– crowns partially covered with veneering porcelain; and Monolithic–full-contour zirconia crowns. All specimens were treated with a glaze layer. Specimens were subjected to mechanical cycling (100N, 3Hz) with a piston with hemispherical tip (Ø=6 mm) until the specimens failed or up to 2×106 cycles. Every 500,000 cycles intervals, the fatigue tests were interrupted, and stereomicroscopy (10 X) was used to inspect the specimens for damage. We performed Weibull analysis of interval data to calculate the number of failures in each interval. Results The types and number of failures according to the groups were: cracking (Traditional-13, Modified-6) and chipping (Traditional-4) of the feldspathic porcelain, followed by delamination (Traditional-1) at the veneer/core interface and debonding (Monollithic-2) at the cementation interface. Weibull parameters (beta, scale; and eta, shape), with a two-sided confidence interval of 95%, were: Traditional – 1.25 and 0.9 × 106cycles; Modified– 0.58 and 11.7 × 106 cycles; and Monolithic – 1.05 and 16.5 × 106 cycles. Traditional crowns showed greater susceptibility to fatigue, the Modified group presented higher propensity to early failures, and the Monolithic group showed no susceptibility to fatigue. The Modified and Monolithic groups presented the highest number of crowns with no failures after the fatigue test. Conclusions The three crown designs presented significantly different behaviors under fatigue. The Modified and the Monolithic groups presented less probability to failure after 2×106cycles. PMID:26509988

Compositional Analyses and Shelf-Life Modeling of Njangsa (Ricinodendron heudelotii) Seed Oil Using the Weibull Hazard Analysis.

PubMed

Abaidoo-Ayin, Harold K; Boakye, Prince G; Jones, Kerby C; Wyatt, Victor T; Besong, Samuel A; Lumor, Stephen E

2017-08-01

This study investigated the compositional characteristics and shelf-life of Njangsa seed oil (NSO). Oil from Njangsa had a high polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) content of which alpha eleostearic acid (α-ESA), an unusual conjugated linoleic acid was the most prevalent (about 52%). Linoleic acid was also present in appreciable amounts (approximately 34%). Our investigations also indicated that the acid-catalyzed transesterification of NSO resulted in lower yields of α-ESA methyl esters, due to isomerization, a phenomenon which was not observed under basic conditions. The triacylglycerol (TAG) profile analysis showed the presence of at least 1 α-ESA fatty acid chain in more than 95% of the oil's TAGs. Shelf-life was determined by the Weibull Hazard Sensory Method, where the end of shelf-life was defined as the time at which 50% of panelists found the flavor of NSO to be unacceptable. This was determined as 21 wk. Our findings therefore support the potential commercial viability of NSO as an important source of physiologically beneficial PUFAs. © 2017 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Estimation of the risk of failure for an endodontically treated maxillary premolar with MODP preparation and CAD/CAM ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Li; Chang, Yen-Hsiang; Pa, Che-An

2009-10-01

This study evaluated the risk of failure for an endodontically treated premolar with mesio occlusodistal palatal (MODP) preparation and 3 different computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) ceramic restoration configurations. Three 3-dimensional finite element (FE) models designed with CAD/CAM ceramic onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations were constructed to perform simulations. The Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long-term failure probability relative to different load conditions. The results indicated that the stress values on the enamel, dentin, and luting cement for endocrown restoration were the lowest values relative to the other 2 restorations. Weibull analysis revealed that the individual failure probability in the endocrown enamel, dentin, and luting cement obviously diminished more than those for onlay and conventional crown restorations. The overall failure probabilities were 27.5%, 1%, and 1% for onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations, respectively, in normal occlusal condition. This numeric investigation suggests that endocrown and conventional crown restorations for endodontically treated premolars with MODP preparation present similar longevity.

The effect of core material, veneering porcelain, and fabrication technique on the biaxial flexural strength and weibull analysis of selected dental ceramics.

PubMed

Lin, Wei-Shao; Ercoli, Carlo; Feng, Changyong; Morton, Dean

2012-07-01

The objective of this study was to compare the effect of veneering porcelain (monolithic or bilayer specimens) and core fabrication technique (heat-pressed or CAD/CAM) on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus of leucite-reinforced and lithium-disilicate glass ceramics. In addition, the effect of veneering technique (heat-pressed or powder/liquid layering) for zirconia ceramics on the biaxial flexural strength and Weibull modulus was studied. Five ceramic core materials (IPS Empress Esthetic, IPS Empress CAD, IPS e.max Press, IPS e.max CAD, IPS e.max ZirCAD) and three corresponding veneering porcelains (IPS Empress Esthetic Veneer, IPS e.max Ceram, IPS e.max ZirPress) were selected for this study. Each core material group contained three subgroups based on the core material thickness and the presence of corresponding veneering porcelain as follows: 1.5 mm core material only (subgroup 1.5C), 0.8 mm core material only (subgroup 0.8C), and 1.5 mm core/veneer group: 0.8 mm core with 0.7 mm corresponding veneering porcelain with a powder/liquid layering technique (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VL). The ZirCAD group had one additional 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroup with 0.7 mm heat-pressed veneering porcelain (subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP). The biaxial flexural strengths were compared for each subgroup (n = 10) according to ISO standard 6872:2008 with ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc multiple comparison test (p≤ 0.05). The reliability of strength was analyzed with the Weibull distribution. For all core materials, the 1.5 mm core/veneer subgroups (0.8C-0.7VL, 0.8C-0.7VP) had significantly lower mean biaxial flexural strengths (p < 0.0001) than the other two subgroups (subgroups 1.5C and 0.8C). For the ZirCAD group, the 0.8C-0.7VL subgroup had significantly lower flexural strength (p= 0.004) than subgroup 0.8C-0.7VP. Nonetheless, both veneered ZirCAD groups showed greater flexural strength than the monolithic Empress and e.max groups, regardless of core thickness and fabrication techniques. Comparing fabrication techniques, Empress Esthetic/CAD, e.max Press/CAD had similar biaxial flexural strength (p= 0.28 for Empress pair; p= 0.87 for e.max pair); however, e.max CAD/Press groups had significantly higher flexural strength (p < 0.0001) than Empress Esthetic/CAD groups. Monolithic core specimens presented with higher Weibull modulus with all selected core materials. For the ZirCAD group, although the bilayer 0.8C-0.7VL subgroup exhibited significantly lower flexural strength, it had highest Weibull modulus than the 0.8C-0.7VP subgroup. The present study suggests that veneering porcelain onto a ceramic core material diminishes the flexural strength and the reliability of the bilayer specimens. Leucite-reinforced glass-ceramic cores have lower flexural strength than lithium-disilicate ones, while fabrication techniques (heat-pressed or CAD/CAM) and specimen thicknesses do not affect the flexural strength of all glass ceramics. Compared with the heat-pressed veneering technique, the powder/liquid veneering technique exhibited lower flexural strength but increased reliability with a higher Weibull modulus for zirconia bilayer specimens. Zirconia-veneered ceramics exhibited greater flexural strength than monolithic leucite-reinforced and lithium-disilicate ceramics regardless of zirconia veneering techniques (heat-pressed or powder/liquid technique). © 2012 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the performance of a relay-assisted free-space optical communication system over exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian; Fu, Huihua; Wang, Ranran; Guo, Lixin

2016-09-20

The impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the system performance of decode-and-forward protocol-based multihop parallel optical wireless communication systems is studied. For the aggregated fading channel, the atmospheric turbulence is simulated by an exponentiated Weibull model, and pointing errors are described by one recently proposed statistical model including both boresight and jitter. The binary phase-shift keying subcarrier intensity modulation-based analytical average bit error rate (ABER) and outage probability expressions are achieved for a nonidentically and independently distributed system. The ABER and outage probability are then analyzed with different turbulence strengths, receiving aperture sizes, structure parameters (P and Q), jitter variances, and boresight displacements. The results show that aperture averaging offers almost the same system performance improvement with boresight included or not, despite the values of P and Q. The performance enhancement owing to the increase of cooperative path (P) is more evident with nonzero boresight than that with zero boresight (jitter only), whereas the performance deterioration because of the increasing hops (Q) with nonzero boresight is almost the same as that with zero boresight. Monte Carlo simulation is offered to verify the validity of ABER and outage probability expressions.

Idealized models of the joint probability distribution of wind speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monahan, Adam H.

2018-05-01

The joint probability distribution of wind speeds at two separate locations in space or points in time completely characterizes the statistical dependence of these two quantities, providing more information than linear measures such as correlation. In this study, we consider two models of the joint distribution of wind speeds obtained from idealized models of the dependence structure of the horizontal wind velocity components. The bivariate Rice distribution follows from assuming that the wind components have Gaussian and isotropic fluctuations. The bivariate Weibull distribution arises from power law transformations of wind speeds corresponding to vector components with Gaussian, isotropic, mean-zero variability. Maximum likelihood estimates of these distributions are compared using wind speed data from the mid-troposphere, from different altitudes at the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands, and from scatterometer observations over the sea surface. While the bivariate Rice distribution is more flexible and can represent a broader class of dependence structures, the bivariate Weibull distribution is mathematically simpler and may be more convenient in many applications. The complexity of the mathematical expressions obtained for the joint distributions suggests that the development of explicit functional forms for multivariate speed distributions from distributions of the components will not be practical for more complicated dependence structure or more than two speed variables.

ZERODUR: bending strength data for etched surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter; Leys, Antoine; Carré, Antoine; Kerz, Franca; Westerhoff, Thomas

2014-07-01

In a continuous effort since 2007 a considerable amount of new data and information has been gathered on the bending strength of the extremely low thermal expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR®. By fitting a three parameter Weibull distribution to the data it could be shown that for homogenously ground surfaces minimum breakage stresses exist lying much higher than the previously applied design limits. In order to achieve even higher allowable stress values diamond grain ground surfaces have been acid etched, a procedure widely accepted as strength increasing measure. If surfaces are etched taking off layers with thickness which are comparable to the maximum micro crack depth of the preceding grinding process they also show statistical distributions compatible with a three parameter Weibull distribution. SCHOTT has performed additional measurement series with etch solutions with variable composition testing the applicability of this distribution and the possibility to achieve further increase of the minimum breakage stress. For long term loading applications strength change with time and environmental media are important. The parameter needed for prediction calculations which is combining these influences is the stress corrosion constant. Results from the past differ significantly from each other. On the basis of new investigations better information will be provided for choosing the best value for the given application conditions.

A case study of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm of July 11, 1978. I - Analysis of the data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nisbet, John S.; Barnard, Theresa A.; Forbes, Gregory S.; Krider, E. Philip; Lhermitte, Roger

1990-01-01

The data obtained at the time of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm at the Kennedy Space Center on July 11, 1978 are analyzed in a model-independent manner. The data base included data from three Doppler radars, a lightning detection and ranging system and a network of 25 electric field mills, and rain gages. Electric field measurements were used to analyze the charge moments transferred by lightning flashes, and the data were fitted to Weibull distributions; these were used to estimate statistical parameters of the lightning for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes and to estimate the fraction of the flashes which were below the observation threshold. The displacement and the conduction current densities were calculated from electric field measurements between flashes. These values were used to derive the magnitudes and the locations of dipole and monopole generators by least squares fitting the measured Maxwell current densities to the displacement-dominated equations.

Anisotropy, size, and aspect ratio effects on micropillar compression of Al-SiC nanolaminate composites

DOE PAGES

Mayer, C. R.; Yang, L. W.; Singh, S. S.; ...

2016-05-20

Metal-ceramic nanolaminate composites show promise as high strength and toughness materials. Micropillar compression was used to characterize the mechanical behavior of AlSiC multilayers in different orientations including loading at 0°, 45° and 90° with respect to the direction of the layers. The 0° orientation showed the highest strength while the 45° orientation showed the lowest strength. Each orientation showed unique deformation behavior. Effects of pillar size and aspect ratio were also studied. Higher compressive strengths were observed in smaller pillars for all orientations. This effect was shown to be due to a lower probability of flaws using Weibull statistics. Additionally,more » changes in the aspect ratio was shown to have no significant effect on the behavior except an increase in the strain to failure in the 0° orientation. In conclusion, finite element analysis (FEA) was used to simulate and understand the effect of these parameters on the deformation behavior.« less

Meteorite fractures and the behavior of meteoroids in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryson, K.; Ostrowski, D. R.; Sears, D. W. G.

2015-12-01

Arguably the major difficulty faced to model the atmospheric behavior of objects entering the atmosphere is that we know very little about the internal structure of these objects and their methods of fragmentation during fall. In a study of over a thousand meteorite fragments (mostly hand-sized, some 40 or 50 cm across) in the collections of the Natural History Museums in Vienna and London, we identified six kinds of fracturing behavior. (1) Chondrites usually showed random fractures with no particular sensitivity to meteorite texture. (2) Coarse irons fractured along kamacite grain boundaries, while (3) fine irons fragmented randomly, c.f. chondrites. (4) Fine irons with large crystal boundaries (e.g. Arispe) fragmented along the crystal boundaries. (5) A few chondrites, three in the present study, have a distinct and strong network of fractures making a brickwork or chicken-wire structure. The Chelyabinsk meteorite has the chicken-wire structure of fractures, which explains the very large number of centimeter-sized fragments that showered the Earth. Finally, (6) previous work on Sutter's Mill showed that water-rich meteorites fracture around clasts. To scale the meteorite fractures to the fragmentation behavior of near-Earth asteroids, it has been suggested that the fracturing behavior follows a statistical prediction made in the 1930s, the Weibull distribution, where fractures are assumed to be randomly distributed through the target and the likelihood of encountering a fracture increases with distance. This results in a relationship: σl = σs(ns/nl)α, where σs and σl refers to stress in the small and large object and ns and nl refer to the number of cracks per unit volume of the small and large object. The value for α, the Weibull coefficient, is unclear. Ames meteorite laboratory is working to measure the density and length of fractures observed in these six types of fracture to determine values for the Weibull coefficient for each type of object.

Use of simulation tools to illustrate the effect of data management practices for low and negative plate counts on the estimated parameters of microbial reduction models.

PubMed

Garcés-Vega, Francisco; Marks, Bradley P

2014-08-01

In the last 20 years, the use of microbial reduction models has expanded significantly, including inactivation (linear and nonlinear), survival, and transfer models. However, a major constraint for model development is the impossibility to directly quantify the number of viable microorganisms below the limit of detection (LOD) for a given study. Different approaches have been used to manage this challenge, including ignoring negative plate counts, using statistical estimations, or applying data transformations. Our objective was to illustrate and quantify the effect of negative plate count data management approaches on parameter estimation for microbial reduction models. Because it is impossible to obtain accurate plate counts below the LOD, we performed simulated experiments to generate synthetic data for both log-linear and Weibull-type microbial reductions. We then applied five different, previously reported data management practices and fit log-linear and Weibull models to the resulting data. The results indicated a significant effect (α = 0.05) of the data management practices on the estimated model parameters and performance indicators. For example, when the negative plate counts were replaced by the LOD for log-linear data sets, the slope of the subsequent log-linear model was, on average, 22% smaller than for the original data, the resulting model underpredicted lethality by up to 2.0 log, and the Weibull model was erroneously selected as the most likely correct model for those data. The results demonstrate that it is important to explicitly report LODs and related data management protocols, which can significantly affect model results, interpretation, and utility. Ultimately, we recommend using only the positive plate counts to estimate model parameters for microbial reduction curves and avoiding any data value substitutions or transformations when managing negative plate counts to yield the most accurate model parameters.

Aerospace Applications of Weibull and Monte Carlo Simulation with Importance Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1998-01-01

Recent developments in reliability modeling and computer technology have made it practical to use the Weibull time to failure distribution to model the system reliability of complex fault-tolerant computer-based systems. These system models are becoming increasingly popular in space systems applications as a result of mounting data that support the decreasing Weibull failure distribution and the expectation of increased system reliability. This presentation introduces the new reliability modeling developments and demonstrates their application to a novel space system application. The application is a proposed guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system for use in a long duration manned spacecraft for a possible Mars mission. Comparisons to the constant failure rate model are presented and the ramifications of doing so are discussed.

Analysis of flexural strength and contact pressure after simulated chairside adjustment of pressed lithium disilicate glass-ceramic.

PubMed

Ramadhan, Ali; Thompson, Geoffrey A; Maroulakos, Georgios; Berzins, David

2018-04-30

Research evaluating load-to-failure of pressed lithium disilicate glass-ceramic (LDGC) with a clinically validated test after adjustment and repair procedures is scarce. The purpose of this in vitro study was to investigate the effect of the simulated chairside adjustment of the intaglio surface of monolithic pressed LDGC and procedures intended to repair damage. A total of 423 IPS e.max Press (Ivoclar Vivadent AG) disks (15 mm diameter, 1 mm height) were used in the study. The material was tested by using an equibiaxial loading arrangement (n≥30/group) and a contact pressure test (n≥20/group). Specimens were assigned to 1 of 14 groups. One-half was assigned to the equibiaxial load test and the other half underwent contact pressure testing. Testing was performed in 2 parts, before glazing and after glazing. Before-glazing specimens were devested and entered in the test protocol, while after-glazing specimens were devested and glazed before entering the test protocol. Equibiaxial flexure test specimens were placed on a ring-on-ring apparatus and loaded until failure. Contact pressure specimens were cemented to epoxy resin blocks with a resin cement and loaded with a 50-mm diameter hemisphere until failure. Tests were performed on a universal testing machine with a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm/min. Weibull statistics and likelihood ratio contour plots determined intergroup differences (95% confidence bounds). Before glazing, the equibiaxial flexural strength test and the Weibull and likelihood ratio contour plots demonstrated a significantly higher failure strength for 1EC (188 MPa) than that of the damaged and/or repaired groups. Glazing following diamond-adjustment (1EGG) was the most beneficial post-damage procedure (176 MPa). Regarding the contact pressure test, the Weibull and likelihood ratio contour plots revealed no significant difference between the 1PC (98 MPa) and 1PGG (98 MPa) groups. Diamond-adjustment, without glazing (1EG and 1PG), resulted in the next-to-lowest equibiaxial flexure strength and the lowest contact pressure. After glazing, the strength of all the groups, when subjected to glazing following devesting, increased in comparison with corresponding groups in the before-glazing part of the study. A glazing treatment improved the mechanical properties of diamond-adjusted IPS e.max Press disks when evaluated by equibiaxial flexure and contact pressure tests. Copyright © 2018 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distributions of Autocorrelated First-Order Kinetic Outcomes: Illness Severity

PubMed Central

Englehardt, James D.

2015-01-01

Many complex systems produce outcomes having recurring, power law-like distributions over wide ranges. However, the form necessarily breaks down at extremes, whereas the Weibull distribution has been demonstrated over the full observed range. Here the Weibull distribution is derived as the asymptotic distribution of generalized first-order kinetic processes, with convergence driven by autocorrelation, and entropy maximization subject to finite positive mean, of the incremental compounding rates. Process increments represent multiplicative causes. In particular, illness severities are modeled as such, occurring in proportion to products of, e.g., chronic toxicant fractions passed by organs along a pathway, or rates of interacting oncogenic mutations. The Weibull form is also argued theoretically and by simulation to be robust to the onset of saturation kinetics. The Weibull exponential parameter is shown to indicate the number and widths of the first-order compounding increments, the extent of rate autocorrelation, and the degree to which process increments are distributed exponential. In contrast with the Gaussian result in linear independent systems, the form is driven not by independence and multiplicity of process increments, but by increment autocorrelation and entropy. In some physical systems the form may be attracting, due to multiplicative evolution of outcome magnitudes towards extreme values potentially much larger and smaller than control mechanisms can contain. The Weibull distribution is demonstrated in preference to the lognormal and Pareto I for illness severities versus (a) toxicokinetic models, (b) biologically-based network models, (c) scholastic and psychological test score data for children with prenatal mercury exposure, and (d) time-to-tumor data of the ED01 study. PMID:26061263

An EOQ Model with Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution Deterioration and Price-Dependent Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mukhopadhyay, Sushanta; Mukherjee, R. N.; Chaudhuri, K. S.

2005-01-01

An inventory replenishment policy is developed for a deteriorating item and price-dependent demand. The rate of deterioration is taken to be time-proportional and the time to deterioration is assumed to follow a two-parameter Weibull distribution. A power law form of the price dependence of demand is considered. The model is solved analytically…

Morphological study on the prediction of the site of surface slides

Treesearch

Hiromasa Hiura

1991-01-01

The annual continual occurrence of surface slides in the basin was estimated by modifying the estimation formula of Yoshimatsu. The Weibull Distribution Function revealed to be usefull for presenting the state and the transition of surface slides in the basin. Three parameters of the Weibull Function are recognized to be the linear function of the area ratio a/A. The...

Automatic Threshold Detector Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-07-15

Averaging CFAR in Non- Stationary Weibull Clutter, " L. Novak, (1974 IEEE Symposium on Information Theory ). 8. "The Weibull Distribution Applied to the... UGTS (K) ,Kml NPTS) 140 DO 153 K~lvNPT9 IF(SIGCSO(K) .LT.0. )SIOCSO(K).1 .E-50 IF(SIOWSO(K) .LT.0. )SIGWSQ(K)-1 .E-50 IF(SIONSG(K) .LT.O. )SIG3NSQCIO-1.E

Research reports: 1985 NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, G. R. (Editor); Osborn, T. L. (Editor); Dozier, J. B. (Editor); Freeman, L. M. (Editor)

1986-01-01

A compilation of 40 technical reports on research conducted by participants in the 1985 NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is given. Weibull density functions, reliability analysis, directional solidification, space stations, jet stream, fracture mechanics, composite materials, orbital maneuvering vehicles, stellar winds and gamma ray bursts are among the topics discussed.

Corrigendum to ;Assessing tephra total grain-size distribution: Insights from field data analysis; [Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 443 (2016) 90-107

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, A.; Pioli, L.; Bonadonna, C.

2017-05-01

The authors found a mistake in the formulation of the distribution named Bi-Weibull distribution reported in the equation (A.2) of the Appendix A. The error affects equation (4) (which is the same as eq. (A.2)) and Table 4 in the original manuscript.

Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2016-11-01

A statistical analysis of extreme weather events over coastal areas of the Russian Arctic based on observational data has revealed many interesting features of wind velocity distributions. It has been shown that the extremes contain data belonging to two different statistical populations. Each of them is reliably described by a Weibull distribution. According to the standard terminology, these sets of extremes are named ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’. The ‘dragons’ are responsible for most extremes, surpassing the ‘black swans’ by 10 - 30 %. Since the data of the global climate model INM-CM4 do not contain ‘dragons’, the wind speed extremes are investigated on the mesoscale using the COSMO-CLM model. The modelling results reveal no differences between the ‘swans’ and ‘dragons’ situations. It could be associated with the poor sample data used. However, according to many case studies and modeling results we assume that it is caused by a rare superposition of large-scale synoptic factors and many local meso- and microscale factors (surface, coastline configuration, etc.). Further studies of extreme wind speeds in the Arctic, such as ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’, are necessary to focus on non-hydrostatic high-resolution atmospheric modelling using downscaling techniques.

A Mixed Kijima Model Using the Weibull-Based Generalized Renewal Processes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Generalized Renewal Processes are useful for approaching the rejuvenation of dynamical systems resulting from planned or unplanned interventions. We present new perspectives for the Generalized Renewal Processes in general and for the Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes in particular. Disregarding from literature, we present a mixed Generalized Renewal Processes approach involving Kijima Type I and II models, allowing one to infer the impact of distinct interventions on the performance of the system under study. The first and second theoretical moments of this model are introduced as well as its maximum likelihood estimation and random sampling approaches. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes model, some real data sets involving improving, stable, and deteriorating systems are used. PMID:26197222

Statistics of acoustic emissions and stress drops during granular shearing using a stick-slip fiber bundle mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, D.; Michlmayr, G.; Or, D.

2012-04-01

Shearing of dense granular materials appears in many engineering and Earth sciences applications. Under a constant strain rate, the shearing stress at steady state oscillates with slow rises followed by rapid drops that are linked to the build up and failure of force chains. Experiments indicate that these drops display exponential statistics. Measurements of acoustic emissions during shearing indicates that the energy liberated by failure of these force chains has power-law statistics. Representing force chains as fibers, we use a stick-slip fiber bundle model to obtain analytical solutions of the statistical distribution of stress drops and failure energy. In the model, fibers stretch, fail, and regain strength during deformation. Fibers have Weibull-distributed threshold strengths with either quenched and annealed disorder. The shape of the distribution for drops and energy obtained from the model are similar to those measured during shearing experiments. This simple model may be useful to identify failure events linked to force chain failures. Future generalizations of the model that include different types of fiber failure may also allow identification of different types of granular failures that have distinct statistical acoustic emission signatures.

Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Adam

2015-01-01

During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

Mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease: applications to a cohort assembled from electronic health records.

PubMed

Cheung, Li C; Pan, Qing; Hyun, Noorie; Schiffman, Mark; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Lorey, Thomas; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-09-30

For cost-effectiveness and efficiency, many large-scale general-purpose cohort studies are being assembled within large health-care providers who use electronic health records. Two key features of such data are that incident disease is interval-censored between irregular visits and there can be pre-existing (prevalent) disease. Because prevalent disease is not always immediately diagnosed, some disease diagnosed at later visits are actually undiagnosed prevalent disease. We consider prevalent disease as a point mass at time zero for clinical applications where there is no interest in time of prevalent disease onset. We demonstrate that the naive Kaplan-Meier cumulative risk estimator underestimates risks at early time points and overestimates later risks. We propose a general family of mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease that we call prevalence-incidence models. Parameters for parametric prevalence-incidence models, such as the logistic regression and Weibull survival (logistic-Weibull) model, are estimated by direct likelihood maximization or by EM algorithm. Non-parametric methods are proposed to calculate cumulative risks for cases without covariates. We compare naive Kaplan-Meier, logistic-Weibull, and non-parametric estimates of cumulative risk in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Kaplan-Meier provided poor estimates while the logistic-Weibull model was a close fit to the non-parametric. Our findings support our use of logistic-Weibull models to develop the risk estimates that underlie current US risk-based cervical cancer screening guidelines. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.; Gómez, G.

2011-10-01

The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Third, we analyze the non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as the intensity function.

Step-stress analysis for predicting dental ceramic reliability

PubMed Central

Borba, Márcia; Cesar, Paulo F.; Griggs, Jason A.; Bona, Álvaro Della

2013-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that step-stress analysis is effective to predict the reliability of an alumina-based dental ceramic (VITA In-Ceram AL blocks) subjected to a mechanical aging test. Methods Bar-shaped ceramic specimens were fabricated, polished to 1µm finish and divided into 3 groups (n=10): (1) step-stress accelerating test; (2) flexural strength- control; (3) flexural strength- mechanical aging. Specimens from group 1 were tested in an electromagnetic actuator (MTS Evolution) using a three-point flexure fixture (frequency: 2Hz; R=0.1) in 37°C water bath. Each specimen was subjected to an individual stress profile, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. A cumulative damage model with an inverse power law lifetime-stress relation and Weibull lifetime distribution were used to fit the fatigue data. The data were used to predict the stress level and number of cycles for mechanical aging (group 3). Groups 2 and 3 were tested for three-point flexural strength (σ) in a universal testing machine with 1.0 s in 37°C water. Data were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney Rank Sum test. Results Step-stress data analysis showed that the profile most likely to weaken the specimens without causing fracture during aging (95% CI: 0–14% failures) was: 80 MPa stress amplitude and 105 cycles. The median σ values (MPa) for groups 2 (493±54) and 3 (423±103) were statistically different (p=0.009). Significance The aging profile determined by step-stress analysis was effective to reduce alumina ceramic strength as predicted by the reliability estimate, confirming the study hypothesis. PMID:23827018

Step-stress analysis for predicting dental ceramic reliability.

PubMed

Borba, Márcia; Cesar, Paulo F; Griggs, Jason A; Della Bona, Alvaro

2013-08-01

To test the hypothesis that step-stress analysis is effective to predict the reliability of an alumina-based dental ceramic (VITA In-Ceram AL blocks) subjected to a mechanical aging test. Bar-shaped ceramic specimens were fabricated, polished to 1μm finish and divided into 3 groups (n=10): (1) step-stress accelerating test; (2) flexural strength-control; (3) flexural strength-mechanical aging. Specimens from group 1 were tested in an electromagnetic actuator (MTS Evolution) using a three-point flexure fixture (frequency: 2Hz; R=0.1) in 37°C water bath. Each specimen was subjected to an individual stress profile, and the number of cycles to failure was recorded. A cumulative damage model with an inverse power law lifetime-stress relation and Weibull lifetime distribution were used to fit the fatigue data. The data were used to predict the stress level and number of cycles for mechanical aging (group 3). Groups 2 and 3 were tested for three-point flexural strength (σ) in a universal testing machine with 1.0MPa/s stress rate, in 37°C water. Data were statistically analyzed using Mann-Whitney Rank Sum test. Step-stress data analysis showed that the profile most likely to weaken the specimens without causing fracture during aging (95% CI: 0-14% failures) was: 80MPa stress amplitude and 10(5) cycles. The median σ values (MPa) for groups 2 (493±54) and 3 (423±103) were statistically different (p=0.009). The aging profile determined by step-stress analysis was effective to reduce alumina ceramic strength as predicted by the reliability estimate, confirming the study hypothesis. Copyright © 2013 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pocket Handbook on Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

Predicting the mechanical properties of brittle porous materials with various porosity and pore sizes.

PubMed

Cui, Zhiwei; Huang, Yongmin; Liu, Honglai

2017-07-01

In this work, a micromechanical study using the lattice spring model (LSM) was performed to predict the mechanical properties of BPMs by simulation of the Brazilian test. Stress-strain curve and Weibull plot were analyzed for the determination of fracture strength and Weibull modulus. The presented model composed of linear elastic elements is capable of reproducing the non-linear behavior of BPMs resulting from the damage accumulation and provides consistent results which are in agreement with experimental measurements. Besides, it is also found that porosity shows significant impact on fracture strength while pore size dominates the Weibull modulus, which enables us to establish how choices made in the microstructure to meet the demand of brittle porous materials functioning in various operating conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical and Spectral Analysis of Wind Characteristics Relevant to Wind Energy Assessment Using Tower Measurements in Complex Terrain

DOE PAGES

Belu, Radian; Koracin, Darko

2013-01-01

The main objective of the study was to investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of the wind speed and direction in complex terrain that are relevant to wind energy assessment and development, as well as to wind energy system operation, management, and grid integration. Wind data from five tall meteorological towers located in Western Nevada, USA, operated from August 2003 to March 2008, used in the analysis. The multiannual average wind speeds did not show significant increased trend with increasing elevation, while the turbulence intensity slowly decreased with an increase were the average wind speed. The wind speed and direction weremore » modeled using the Weibull and the von Mises distribution functions. The correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multiday periodicity with increasing lag periods. The spectral analysis shows significant annual periodicity with similar characteristics at all locations. The relatively high correlations between the towers and small range of the computed turbulence intensity indicate that wind variability is dominated by the regional synoptic processes. Knowledge and information about daily, seasonal, and annual wind periodicities are very important for wind energy resource assessment, wind power plant operation, management, and grid integration.« less

Statistical damage constitutive model for rocks subjected to cyclic stress and cyclic temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shu-Wei; Xia, Cai-Chu; Zhao, Hai-Bin; Mei, Song-Hua; Zhou, Yu

2017-10-01

A constitutive model of rocks subjected to cyclic stress-temperature was proposed. Based on statistical damage theory, the damage constitutive model with Weibull distribution was extended. Influence of model parameters on the stress-strain curve for rock reloading after stress-temperature cycling was then discussed. The proposed model was initially validated by rock tests for cyclic stress-temperature and only cyclic stress. Finally, the total damage evolution induced by stress-temperature cycling and reloading after cycling was explored and discussed. The proposed constitutive model is reasonable and applicable, describing well the stress-strain relationship during stress-temperature cycles and providing a good fit to the test results. Elastic modulus in the reference state and the damage induced by cycling affect the shape of reloading stress-strain curve. Total damage induced by cycling and reloading after cycling exhibits three stages: initial slow increase, mid-term accelerated increase, and final slow increase.

Prediction of Mean and Design Fatigue Lives of Self Compacting Concrete Beams in Flexure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, S.; Singh, S. P.; Singh, P.; Kaushik, S. K.

2012-02-01

In this paper, result of an investigation conducted to study the flexural fatigue characteristics of self compacting concrete (SCC) beams in flexure are presented. An experimental programme was planned in which approximately 60 SCC beam specimens of size 100 × 100 × 500 mm were tested under flexural fatigue loading. Approximately 45 static flexural tests were also conducted to facilitate fatigue testing. The flexural fatigue and static flexural strength tests were conducted on a 100 kN servo-controlled actuator. The fatigue life data thus obtained have been used to establish the probability distributions of fatigue life of SCC using two-parameter Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull distribution have been obtained by different methods of analysis. Using the distribution parameters, the mean and design fatigue lives of SCC have been estimated and compared with Normally vibrated concrete (NVC), the data for which have been taken from literature. It has been observed that SCC exhibits higher mean and design fatigue lives compared to NVC.

Evaluation of the Three Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Fracture Probability in Composite Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-03-01

for the risk of rupture for a unidirectionally laminat - ed composite subjected to pure bending. (5D This equation can be simplified further by use of...C EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS. THESIS / AFIT/GAE...EVALUATION OF THE THREE PARAMETER WE1BULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION FOR PREDICTING FRACTURE PROBABILITY IN COMPOSITE MATERIALS THESIS Presented

Mechanical Testing of Silicon Carbide on MISSE-7

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-15

JS) ii Abstract Silicon carbide ( SiC ) mechanical test specimens were included on the second Optical and Reflector Materials Experiment (ORMatE II...2. Vendor 2 EFS Weibull Results (normalized to Extra Disks Weibull parameters) 12 1. Introduction Silicon carbide ( SiC ) mechanical test...AEROSPACE REPORT NO ATR-2012(8921)-5 Mechanical Testing of Silicon Carbide on MISSE-7 Jul> 15. 2012 David B. Witkin Space Materials Laboratory

A reappraisal of drug release laws using Monte Carlo simulations: the prevalence of the Weibull function.

PubMed

Kosmidis, Kosmas; Argyrakis, Panos; Macheras, Panos

2003-07-01

To verify the Higuchi law and study the drug release from cylindrical and spherical matrices by means of Monte Carlo computer simulation. A one-dimensional matrix, based on the theoretical assumptions of the derivation of the Higuchi law, was simulated and its time evolution was monitored. Cylindrical and spherical three-dimensional lattices were simulated with sites at the boundary of the lattice having been denoted as leak sites. Particles were allowed to move inside it using the random walk model. Excluded volume interactions between the particles was assumed. We have monitored the system time evolution for different lattice sizes and different initial particle concentrations. The Higuchi law was verified using the Monte Carlo technique in a one-dimensional lattice. It was found that Fickian drug release from cylindrical matrices can be approximated nicely with the Weibull function. A simple linear relation between the Weibull function parameters and the specific surface of the system was found. Drug release from a matrix, as a result of a diffusion process assuming excluded volume interactions between the drug molecules, can be described using a Weibull function. This model, although approximate and semiempirical, has the benefit of providing a simple physical connection between the model parameters and the system geometry, which was something missing from other semiempirical models.

Investigation of Dielectric Breakdown Characteristics for Double-break Vacuum Interrupter and Dielectric Breakdown Probability Distribution in Vacuum Interrupter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shioiri, Tetsu; Asari, Naoki; Sato, Junichi; Sasage, Kosuke; Yokokura, Kunio; Homma, Mitsutaka; Suzuki, Katsumi

To investigate the reliability of equipment of vacuum insulation, a study was carried out to clarify breakdown probability distributions in vacuum gap. Further, a double-break vacuum circuit breaker was investigated for breakdown probability distribution. The test results show that the breakdown probability distribution of the vacuum gap can be represented by a Weibull distribution using a location parameter, which shows the voltage that permits a zero breakdown probability. The location parameter obtained from Weibull plot depends on electrode area. The shape parameter obtained from Weibull plot of vacuum gap was 10∼14, and is constant irrespective non-uniform field factor. The breakdown probability distribution after no-load switching can be represented by Weibull distribution using a location parameter. The shape parameter after no-load switching was 6∼8.5, and is constant, irrespective of gap length. This indicates that the scatter of breakdown voltage was increased by no-load switching. If the vacuum circuit breaker uses a double break, breakdown probability at low voltage becomes lower than single-break probability. Although potential distribution is a concern in the double-break vacuum cuicuit breaker, its insulation reliability is better than that of the single-break vacuum interrupter even if the bias of the vacuum interrupter's sharing voltage is taken into account.

Assessment of the technological reliability of a hybrid constructed wetland for wastewater treatment in a mountain eco-tourist farm in Poland.

PubMed

Jucherski, Andrzej; Nastawny, Maria; Walczowski, Andrzej; Jóźwiakowski, Krzysztof; Gajewska, Magdalena

2017-06-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the technological reliability of a domestic hybrid wastewater treatment installation consisting of a classic three-chambered (volume 6 m 3 ) septic tank, a vertical flow trickling bed filled with granules of a calcinated clay material (KERAMZYT), a special wetland bed constructed on a slope, and a permeable pond used as a receiver. The test treatment plant was located at a mountain eco-tourist farm on the periphery of the spa municipality of Krynica-Zdrój, Poland. The plant's operational reliability in reducing the concentration of organic matter, measured as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD 5 ) and chemical oxygen demand (COD), was 100% when modelled by both the Weibull and the lognormal distributions. The respective reliability values for total nitrogen removal were 76.8% and 77.0%, total suspended solids - 99.5% and 92.6%, and PO 4 -P - 98.2% and 95.2%, with the differences being negligible. The installation was characterized by a very high level of technological reliability when compared with other solutions of this type. The Weibull method employed for statistical evaluation of technological reliability can also be used for comparison purposes. From the ecological perspective, the facility presented in the study has proven to be an effective tool for protecting local aquifer areas.

Reliability analysis of C-130 turboprop engine components using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qattan, Nizar A.

In this study, we predict the failure rate of Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine. More than thirty years of local operational field data were used for failure rate prediction and validation. The Weibull regression model and the Artificial Neural Network model including (feed-forward back-propagation, radial basis neural network, and multilayer perceptron neural network model); will be utilized to perform this study. For this purpose, the thesis will be divided into five major parts. First part deals with Weibull regression model to predict the turbine general failure rate, and the rate of failures that require overhaul maintenance. The second part will cover the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model utilizing the feed-forward back-propagation algorithm as a learning rule. The MATLAB package will be used in order to build and design a code to simulate the given data, the inputs to the neural network are the independent variables, the output is the general failure rate of the turbine, and the failures which required overhaul maintenance. In the third part we predict the general failure rate of the turbine and the failures which require overhaul maintenance, using radial basis neural network model on MATLAB tool box. In the fourth part we compare the predictions of the feed-forward back-propagation model, with that of Weibull regression model, and radial basis neural network model. The results show that the failure rate predicted by the feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network model is closer in agreement with radial basis neural network model compared with the actual field-data, than the failure rate predicted by the Weibull model. By the end of the study, we forecast the general failure rate of the Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine, the failures which required overhaul maintenance and six categorical failures using multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) model on DTREG commercial software. The results also give an insight into the reliability of the engine turbine under actual operating conditions, which can be used by aircraft operators for assessing system and component failures and customizing the maintenance programs recommended by the manufacturer.

Determination of Turboprop Reduction Gearbox System Fatigue Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.; Lewicki, David G.; Savage, Michael; Vlcek, Brian L.

2007-01-01

Two computational models to determine the fatigue life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox are compared with each other and with field data. These models are (1) Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives of individual bearings and gears comprising the system and (2) two-parameter Weibull distribution function for bearings and gears comprising the system using strict-series system reliability to combine the calculated individual component lives in the gearbox. The Monte Carlo simulation included the virtual testing of 744,450 gearboxes. Two sets of field data were obtained from 64 gearboxes that were first-run to removal for cause, were refurbished and placed back in service, and then were second-run until removal for cause. A series of equations were empirically developed from the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical variation in predicted life and Weibull slope as a function of the number of gearboxes failed. The resultant L(sub 10) life from the field data was 5,627 hr. From strict-series system reliability, the predicted L(sub 10) life was 774 hr. From the Monte Carlo simulation, the median value for the L(sub 10) gearbox lives equaled 757 hr. Half of the gearbox L(sub 10) lives will be less than this value and the other half more. The resultant L(sub 10) life of the second-run (refurbished) gearboxes was 1,334 hr. The apparent load-life exponent p for the roller bearings is 5.2. Were the bearing lives to be recalculated with a load-life exponent p equal to 5.2, the predicted L(sub 10) life of the gearbox would be equal to the actual life obtained in the field. The component failure distribution of the gearbox from the Monte Carlo simulation was nearly identical to that using the strict-series system reliability analysis, proving the compatibility of these methods.

Sol-gel derived bioactive coating on zirconia: Effect on flexural strength and cell proliferation.

PubMed

Shahramian, Khalil; Leminen, Heidi; Meretoja, Ville; Linderbäck, Paula; Kangasniemi, Ilkka; Lassila, Lippo; Abdulmajeed, Aous; Närhi, Timo

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of sol-gel derived bioactive coatings on the biaxial flexural strength and fibroblast proliferation of zirconia, aimed to be used as an implant abutment material. Yttrium stabilized zirconia disc-shaped specimens were cut, ground, sintered, and finally cleansed ultrasonically in each of acetone and ethanol for 5 minutes. Three experimental groups (n = 15) were fabricated, zirconia with sol-gel derived titania (TiO 2 ) coating, zirconia with sol-gel derived zirconia (ZrO 2 ) coating, and non-coated zirconia as a control. The surfaces of the specimens were analyzed through images taken using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), and a non-contact tapping mode atomic force microscope (AFM) was used to record the surface topography and roughness of the coated specimens. Biaxial flexural strength values were determined using the piston-on-three ball technique. Human gingival fibroblast proliferation on the surface of the specimens was evaluated using AlamarBlue assay™. Data were analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's post-hoc test. Additionally, the biaxial flexural strength data was also statistically analyzed with the Weibull distribution. The biaxial flexural strength of zirconia specimens was unaffected (p > 0.05). Weibull modulus of TiO 2 coated and ZrO 2 coated groups (5.7 and 5.4, respectively) were lower than the control (8.0). Specimens coated with ZrO 2 showed significantly lower fibroblast proliferation compared to other groups (p < 0.05). In conclusion, sol-gel derived coatings have no influence on the flexural strength of zirconia. ZrO 2 coated specimens showed significantly lower cell proliferation after 12 days than TiO 2 coated or non-coated control. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 105B: 2401-2407, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Microstructural, Chemical and Mechanical Characterization of Polymer-Derived Hi-Nicalon Fibers with Surface Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, Narottam P.; Chen, Yuan L.

1998-01-01

Room temperature tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon fibers and those having BN/SiC, p-BN/SiC, and p-B(Si)N/SiC surface coatings, deposited by chemical vapor deposition, were measured using an average fiber diameter of 13.5 microns. The Weibull statistical parameters were determined for each fiber. The average tensile strength of uncoated Hi-Nicalon on was 3.19 +/- 0.73 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41. Strength of fibers coated with BN/SiC did not change. However, coat with p-BN/SiC and p-B(Si)N/SiC surface layers showed strength loss of approx. 10 and 35 percent, respectively, compared with as-received fibers. The elemental compositions of the fibers and the coatings were analyzed using scanning Auger microprobe and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. The BN coating was contaminated with a large concentration of carbon and some oxygen. In contrast, p-BN, p-B(Si)N, and SiC coatings did not show any contamination. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and selected area electron diffraction. Hi-Nicalon fiber consists of the P-SIC nanocrystals ranging in size from 1 to 30 nm embedded in an amorphous matrix. TEM analysis of the BN coating revealed four distinct layers with turbostatic structure. The p-BN layer was turbostratic and showed considerable preferred orientation. The p-B(Si)N was glassy and the silicon and boron were uniformly distributed. The silicon carbide coating was polycrystalline with a columnar structure along the growth direction. The p-B(Si)N/SiC coatings were more uniform, less defective and of better quality than the BN/SiC or the p-BN/SiC coatings.

Reliability Assessment of Graphite Specimens under Multiaxial Stresses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sookdeo, Steven; Nemeth, Noel N.; Bratton, Robert L.

2008-01-01

An investigation was conducted to predict the failure strength response of IG-100 nuclear grade graphite exposed to multiaxial stresses. As part of this effort, a review of failure criteria accounting for the stochastic strength response is provided. The experimental work was performed in the early 1990s at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on hollow graphite tubes under the action of axial tensile loading and internal pressurization. As part of the investigation, finite-element analysis (FEA) was performed and compared with results of FEA from the original ORNL report. The new analysis generally compared well with the original analysis, although some discrepancies in the location of peak stresses was noted. The Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life prediction code (CARES/Life) was used with the FEA results to predict the quadrants I (tensile-tensile) and quadrant IV (compression-tension) strength response of the graphite tubes for the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging (NSA), and the Batdorf multiaxial failure theories. The CARES/Life reliability analysis showed that all three failure theories gave similar results in quadrant I but that in quadrant IV, the PIA and Weibull normal stress-averaging theories were not conservative, whereas the Batdorf theory was able to correlate well with experimental results. The conclusion of the study was that the Batdorf theory should generally be used to predict the reliability response of graphite and brittle materials in multiaxial loading situations.

The flexural properties of endodontic post materials.

PubMed

Stewardson, Dominic A; Shortall, Adrian C; Marquis, Peter M; Lumley, Philip J

2010-08-01

To measure the flexural strengths and moduli of endodontic post materials and to assess the effect on the calculated flexural properties of varying the diameter/length (D/L) ratio of three-point bend test samples. Three-point bend testing of samples of 2mm diameter metal and fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) rods was carried out and the mechanical properties calculated at support widths of 16 mm, 32 mm and 64 mm. Weibull analysis was performed on the strength data. The flexural strengths of all the FRC post materials exceeded the yield strengths of the gold and stainless steel samples; the flexural strengths of two FRC materials were comparable with the yield strength of titanium. Stainless steel recorded the highest flexural modulus while the titanium and the two carbon fiber materials exhibited similar values just exceeding that of gold. The remaining glass fiber materials were of lower modulus within the range of 41-57 GPa. Weibull modulus values for the FRC materials ranged from 16.77 to 30.09. Decreasing the L/D ratio produced a marked decrease in flexural modulus for all materials. The flexural strengths of FRC endodontic post materials as new generally exceed the yield strengths of metals from which endodontic posts are made. The high Weibull modulus values suggest good clinical reliability of FRC posts. The flexural modulus values of the tested posts were from 2-6 times (FRC) to 4-10 times (metal) that of dentin. Valid measurement of flexural properties of endodontic post materials requires that test samples have appropriate L/D ratios. Copyright 2010 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Renewal models and coseismic stress transfer in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Console, Rodolfo; Falcone, Giuseppe; Karakostas, Vassilis; Murru, Maura; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Rhoades, David

2013-07-01

model interevent times and Coulomb static stress transfer on the rupture segments along the Corinth Gulf extension zone, a region with a wealth of observations on strong-earthquake recurrence behavior. From the available information on past seismic activity, we have identified eight segments without significant overlapping that are aligned along the southern boundary of the Corinth rift. We aim to test if strong earthquakes on these segments are characterized by some kind of time-predictable behavior, rather than by complete randomness. The rationale for time-predictable behavior is based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, the necessary ingredients of which are a known faulting geometry and slip rate. The tectonic loading rate is characterized by slip of 6 mm/yr on the westernmost fault segment, diminishing to 4 mm/yr on the easternmost segment, based on the most reliable geodetic data. In this study, we employ statistical and physical modeling to account for stress transfer among these fault segments. The statistical modeling is based on the definition of a probability density distribution of the interevent times for each segment. Both the Brownian Passage-Time (BPT) and Weibull distributions are tested. The time-dependent hazard rate thus obtained is then modified by the inclusion of a permanent physical effect due to the Coulomb static stress change caused by failure of neighboring faults since the latest characteristic earthquake on the fault of interest. The validity of the renewal model is assessed retrospectively, using the data of the last 300 years, by comparison with a plain time-independent Poisson model, by means of statistical tools including the Relative Operating Characteristic diagram, the R-score, the probability gain and the log-likelihood ratio. We treat the uncertainties in the parameters of each examined fault source, such as linear dimensions, depth of the fault center, focal mechanism, recurrence time, coseismic slip, and aperiodicity of the statistical distribution, by a Monte Carlo technique. The Monte Carlo samples for all these parameters are drawn from a uniform distribution within their uncertainty limits. We find that the BPT and the Weibull renewal models yield comparable results, and both of them perform significantly better than the Poisson hypothesis. No clear performance enhancement is achieved by the introduction of the Coulomb static stress change into the renewal model.

Small Sample Properties of Asymptotically Efficient Estimators of the Parameters of a Bivariate Gaussian–Weibull Distribution

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; James W. Evans; David E. Kretschmann; Cherilyn A. Hatfield

2012-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity or MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture or MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two or three parameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of...

Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a bivariate Gaussian-Weibull distribution from machine stress-rated data

Treesearch

Steve P. Verrill; David E. Kretschmann; James W. Evans

2016-01-01

Two important wood properties are stiffness (modulus of elasticity, MOE) and bending strength (modulus of rupture, MOR). In the past, MOE has often been modeled as a Gaussian and MOR as a lognormal or a two- or threeparameter Weibull. It is well known that MOE and MOR are positively correlated. To model the simultaneous behavior of MOE and MOR for the purposes of wood...

Study on constant-step stress accelerated life tests in white organic light-emitting diodes.

PubMed

Zhang, J P; Liu, C; Chen, X; Cheng, G L; Zhou, A X

2014-11-01

In order to obtain reliability information for a white organic light-emitting diode (OLED), two constant and one step stress tests were conducted with its working current increased. The Weibull function was applied to describe the OLED life distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and its iterative flow chart were used to calculate shape and scale parameters. Furthermore, the accelerated life equation was determined using the least squares method, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to assess if the white OLED life follows a Weibull distribution, and self-developed software was used to predict the average and the median lifetimes of the OLED. The numerical results indicate that white OLED life conforms to a Weibull distribution, and that the accelerated life equation completely satisfies the inverse power law. The estimated life of a white OLED may provide significant guidelines for its manufacturers and customers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Focus on the Death Kinetics in Predictive Microbiology: Benefits and Limits of the Most Important Models and Some Tools Dealing with Their Application in Foods

PubMed Central

Bevilacqua, Antonio; Speranza, Barbara; Sinigaglia, Milena; Corbo, Maria Rosaria

2015-01-01

Predictive Microbiology (PM) deals with the mathematical modeling of microorganisms in foods for different applications (challenge test, evaluation of microbiological shelf life, prediction of the microbiological hazards connected with foods, etc.). An interesting and important part of PM focuses on the use of primary functions to fit data of death kinetics of spoilage, pathogenic, and useful microorganisms following thermal or non-conventional treatments and can also be used to model survivors throughout storage. The main topic of this review is a focus on the most important death models (negative Gompertz, log-linear, shoulder/tail, Weibull, Weibull+tail, re-parameterized Weibull, biphasic approach, etc.) to pinpoint the benefits and the limits of each model; in addition, the last section addresses the most important tools for the use of death kinetics and predictive microbiology in a user-friendly way. PMID:28231222

A citation-based assessment of the performance of U.S. boiling water reactors following extended power up-rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidrich, Brenden J.

Nuclear power plants produce 20 percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. Nuclear generated electricity is increasingly valuable to a utility because it can be produced at a low marginal cost and it does not release any carbon dioxide. It can also be a hedge against uncertain fossil fuel prices. The construction of new nuclear power plants in the U.S. is cautiously moving forward, restrained by high capital costs. Since 1998, nuclear utilities have been increasing the power output of their reactors by implementing extended power up-rates. Power increases of up to 20 percent are allowed under this process. The equivalent of nine large power plants has been added via extended power up-rates. These up-rates require the replacement of large capital equipment and are often performed in concert with other plant life extension activities such as license renewals. This dissertation examines the effect of these extended power up-rates on the safety performance of U.S. boiling water reactors. Licensing event reports are submitted by the utilities to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal nuclear regulator, for a wide range of abnormal events. Two methods are used to examine the effect of extended power up-rates on the frequency of abnormal events at the reactors. The Crow/AMSAA model, a univariate technique is used to determine if the implementation of an extended power up-rate affects the rate of abnormal events. The method has a long history in the aerospace industry and in the military. At a 95-percent confidence level, the rate of events requiring the submission of a licensing event report decreases following the implementation of an extended power up-rate. It is hypothesized that the improvement in performance is tied to the equipment replacement and refurbishment that is performed as part of the up-rate process. The reactor performance is also analyzed using the proportional hazards model. This technique allows for the estimation of the effects of multiple independent variables on the event rate. Both the Cox and Weibull formulations were tested. The Cox formulation is more commonly used in survival analysis because of its flexibility. The best Cox model included fixed effects at the multi-reactor site level. The Weibull parametric formulation has the same base hazard rate as the Crow/AMSAA model. This theoretical connection was confirmed through a series of tests that demonstrated both models predicted the same base hazard rates. The Weibull formulation produced a model with most of the same statistically significant variables as the Cox model. The beneficial effect of extended power up-rates was predicted in the proportional hazards models as well as the Crow/AMSAA model. The Weibull model also indicated an effect that can be traced back to a plant’s construction. Performance was also found to improve in plants that had been divested from their original owners. This research developed a consistent evaluation toolkit for nuclear power plant performance using either a univariate method that allows for simple graphical evaluation at its heart or a more complex multivariate method that includes the effects of several independent variables with data that are available from public sources. Utilities or regulators with access to proprietary data may be able to expand upon this research with additional data that is not readily available to an academic researcher. Even without access to special data, the methods developed are valuable tools in evaluating and predicting nuclear power plant reliability performance.

Probability of a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district, Japan: reevaluation based on newly-developed paleoseismology, plate tectonics, tsunami study, micro-seismicity and geodetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rikitake, T.

1999-03-01

In light of newly-acquired geophysical information about earthquake generation in the Tokai area, Central Japan, where occurrence of a great earthquake of magnitude 8 or so has recently been feared, probabilities of earthquake occurrence in the near future are reevaluated. Much of the data used for evaluation here relies on recently-developed paleoseismology, tsunami study and GPS geodesy.The new Weibull distribution analysis of recurrence tendency of great earthquakes in the Tokai-Nankai zone indicates that the mean return period of great earthquakes there is estimated as 109 yr with a standard deviation amounting to 33 yr. These values do not differ much from those of previous studies (Rikitake, 1976, 1986; Utsu, 1984).Taking the newly-determined velocities of the motion of Philippine Sea plate at various portions of the Tokai-Nankai zone into account, the ultimate displacements to rupture at the plate boundary are obtained. A Weibull distribution analysis results in the mean ultimate displacement amounting to 4.70 m with a standard deviation estimated as 0.86 m. A return period amounting to 117 yr is obtained at the Suruga Bay portion by dividing the mean ultimate displacement by the relative plate velocity.With the aid of the fault models as determined from the tsunami studies, the increases in the cumulative seismic slips associated with the great earthquakes are examined at various portions of the zone. It appears that a slip-predictable model can better be applied to the occurrence mode of great earthquakes in the zone than a time-predictable model. The crustal strain accumulating over the Tokai area as estimated from the newly-developed geodetic work including the GPS observations is compared to the ultimate strain presumed by the above two models.The probabilities for a great earthquake to recur in the Tokai district are then estimated with the aid of the Weibull analysis parameters obtained for the four cases discussed in the above. All the probabilities evaluated for the four cases take on values ranging 35-45 percent for a ten-year period following the year 2000.

Particle size distributions by transmission electron microscopy: an interlaboratory comparison case study

PubMed Central

Rice, Stephen B; Chan, Christopher; Brown, Scott C; Eschbach, Peter; Han, Li; Ensor, David S; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Bonevich, John; Vladár, András E; Hight Walker, Angela R; Zheng, Jiwen; Starnes, Catherine; Stromberg, Arnold; Ye, Jia; Grulke, Eric A

2015-01-01

This paper reports an interlaboratory comparison that evaluated a protocol for measuring and analysing the particle size distribution of discrete, metallic, spheroidal nanoparticles using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The study was focused on automated image capture and automated particle analysis. NIST RM8012 gold nanoparticles (30 nm nominal diameter) were measured for area-equivalent diameter distributions by eight laboratories. Statistical analysis was used to (1) assess the data quality without using size distribution reference models, (2) determine reference model parameters for different size distribution reference models and non-linear regression fitting methods and (3) assess the measurement uncertainty of a size distribution parameter by using its coefficient of variation. The interlaboratory area-equivalent diameter mean, 27.6 nm ± 2.4 nm (computed based on a normal distribution), was quite similar to the area-equivalent diameter, 27.6 nm, assigned to NIST RM8012. The lognormal reference model was the preferred choice for these particle size distributions as, for all laboratories, its parameters had lower relative standard errors (RSEs) than the other size distribution reference models tested (normal, Weibull and Rosin–Rammler–Bennett). The RSEs for the fitted standard deviations were two orders of magnitude higher than those for the fitted means, suggesting that most of the parameter estimate errors were associated with estimating the breadth of the distributions. The coefficients of variation for the interlaboratory statistics also confirmed the lognormal reference model as the preferred choice. From quasi-linear plots, the typical range for good fits between the model and cumulative number-based distributions was 1.9 fitted standard deviations less than the mean to 2.3 fitted standard deviations above the mean. Automated image capture, automated particle analysis and statistical evaluation of the data and fitting coefficients provide a framework for assessing nanoparticle size distributions using TEM for image acquisition. PMID:26361398

DEM Particle Fracture Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Boning; Herbold, Eric B.; Homel, Michael A.

2015-12-01

An adaptive particle fracture model in poly-ellipsoidal Discrete Element Method is developed. The poly-ellipsoidal particle will break into several sub-poly-ellipsoids by Hoek-Brown fracture criterion based on continuum stress and the maximum tensile stress in contacts. Also Weibull theory is introduced to consider the statistics and size effects on particle strength. Finally, high strain-rate split Hopkinson pressure bar experiment of silica sand is simulated using this newly developed model. Comparisons with experiments show that our particle fracture model can capture the mechanical behavior of this experiment very well, both in stress-strain response and particle size redistribution. The effects of density andmore » packings o the samples are also studied in numerical examples.« less

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama J.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2005-01-01

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melis, Matthew E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.; August, Richard

1999-01-01

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Scale effects on the transverse tensile strength of graphite epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, T. Kevin; Salpekar, Satish A.

1992-01-01

The influence of material volume on the transverse tensile strength of AS4/3501-6 graphite epoxy composites was investigated. Tensile tests of 90 degree laminates with 3 different widths and 5 different thicknesses were conducted. A finite element analysis was performed to determine the influence of the grip on the stress distribution in the coupons and explain the tendency for the distribution of failure locations to be skewed toward the grip. Specimens were instrumented with strain gages and extensometers to insure good alignment and to measure failure strains. Data indicated that matrix dominated strength properties varied with the volume of material that was stressed, with the strength decreasing as volume increased. Transverse strength data were used in a volumetric scaling law based on Weibull statistics to predict the strength of 90 degree laminates loaded in three point bending. Comparisons were also made between transverse strength measurements and out-of-plane interlaminar tensile strength measurements from curved beam bending tests. The significance of observed scale effects on the use of tests for material screening, quality assurance, and design allowables is discussed.

A Statistical Simulation Approach to Safe Life Fatigue Analysis of Redundant Metallic Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, William T.; Neal, Donald M.

1997-01-01

This paper introduces a dual active load path fail-safe fatigue design concept analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. The concept utilizes the inherent fatigue life differences between selected pairs of components for an active dual path system, enhanced by a stress level bias in one component. The design is applied to a baseline design; a safe life fatigue problem studied in an American Helicopter Society (AHS) round robin. The dual active path design is compared with a two-element standby fail-safe system and the baseline design for life at specified reliability levels and weight. The sensitivity of life estimates for both the baseline and fail-safe designs was examined by considering normal and Weibull distribution laws and coefficient of variation levels. Results showed that the biased dual path system lifetimes, for both the first element failure and residual life, were much greater than for standby systems. The sensitivity of the residual life-weight relationship was not excessive at reliability levels up to R = 0.9999 and the weight penalty was small. The sensitivity of life estimates increases dramatically at higher reliability levels.

The inverse power law model for the lifetime of a mylar-polyurethane laminated dc hv insulating structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalkanis, G.; Rosso, E.

1989-09-01

Results of an accelerated test on the lifetime of a mylar-polyurethane laminated dc high voltage insulating structure are reported. This structure consists of mylar ribbons placed side by side in a number of layers, staggered and glued together with a polyurethane adhesive. The lifetime until breakdown as a function of extremely high values of voltage stress is measured and represented by a mathematical model, the inverse power law model with a 2-parameter Weibull lifetime distribution. The statistical treatment of the data — either by graphical or by analytical methods — allowed us to estimate the lifetime distribution and confidence bounds for any required normal voltage stress. The laminated structure under consideration is, according to the analysis, a very reliable dc hv insulating material, with a very good life performance according to the inverse power law model, and with an exponent of voltage stress equal to 6. A large insulator of cylindrical shape with this kind of laminated structure can be constructed by winding helically a mylar ribbon in a number of layers.

Fatigue Life Prediction of Fiber-Reinforced Ceramic-Matrix Composites with Different Fiber Preforms at Room and Elevated Temperatures

PubMed Central

Li, Longbiao

2016-01-01

In this paper, the fatigue life of fiber-reinforced ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) with different fiber preforms, i.e., unidirectional, cross-ply, 2D (two dimensional), 2.5D and 3D CMCs at room and elevated temperatures in air and oxidative environments, has been predicted using the micromechanics approach. An effective coefficient of the fiber volume fraction along the loading direction (ECFL) was introduced to describe the fiber architecture of preforms. The statistical matrix multicracking model and fracture mechanics interface debonding criterion were used to determine the matrix crack spacing and interface debonded length. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fiber broken fraction was determined by combining the interface wear model and fiber statistical failure model at room temperature, and interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fiber statistical failure model at elevated temperatures, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfies the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fiber fraction approaches the critical value, the composites fatigue fracture. PMID:28773332

Preparation and characterization of poly(lactic acid) nanoparticles for sustained release of pyridostigmine bromide.

PubMed

Tan, Q Y; Xu, M L; Wu, J Y; Yin, H F; Zhang, J Q

2012-04-01

A novel pyridostigmine bromide poly (lactic acid) nanoparticles (PBPNPs) was prepared to obtain sustained release characteristics of PB. A central composite design approach was employed for process optimization. The in vitro release studies were carried out by dialysis method and conducted using four different dissolution media. Similar factor method was investigated for dissolution profile comparison. Multiple linear regression analysis for process optimization revealed that the optimal PBPNPs were obtained where the values of the amount of PB (X1, mg), PLA concentration (X2, % w:v), and PVA concentration (X3, % w:v) were 49.20 mg, 3.31% and 3.41%, respectively. The average particle size and zeta potential of PBPNPs with the optimized formulation were 722.9 +/- 4.3 nm, and -25.12 +/- 1.2 mV, respectively. PBPNPs provided an initial burst of drug release followed by a very slow release over an extended period of time (72 h). Compared with free PB, PBPNPs had a significantly lower release rate of PB in vitro. The in vitro release profile of the PBPNPs could be described by Weibull models, regardless of type of dissolution medium. Statistical significance of similarity between every two dissolution profiles of PBPNPs in different dissolution media was found, and the difference between the curves of PBPNPs and pure PB was statistically significant.

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Thesken, John C.; Phoenix, S. Leigh; Grimes-Ledesma, Lorie

2007-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Statistical description of large datasets of Cumulated and Duration values related to shallow landslides initiated by rainfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisano, Luca; Vessia, Giovanna; Vennari, Carmela; Parise, Mario

2015-04-01

Empirical rainfall thresholds are a well established method to draw information about Duration (D) and Cumulated (E) values of the rainfalls that are likely to initiate shallow landslides. To this end, rain-gauge records of rainfall heights are commonly used. Several procedures can be applied to address the calculation of the Duration-Cumulated height and, eventually, the Intensity values related to the rainfall events responsible for shallow landslide onset. A large number of procedures are drawn from particular geological settings and climate conditions based on an expert identification of the rainfall event. A few researchers recently devised automated procedures to reconstruct the rainfall events responsible for landslide onset. In this study, 300 pairs of D, E couples, related to shallow landslides that occurred in a ten year span 2002-2012 on the Italian territory, have been drawn by means of two procedures: the expert method (Brunetti et al., 2010) and the automated method (Vessia et al., 2014). The two procedures start from the same sources of information on shallow landslides occurred during or soon after a rainfall. Although they have in common the method to select the date (up to the hour of the landslide occurrence), the site of the landslide and the choice of the rain-gauge representative for the rainfall, they differ when calculating the Duration and Cumulated height of the rainfall event. Moreover, the expert procedure identifies only one D, E pair for each landslide whereas the automated procedure draws 6 possible D,E pairs for the same landslide event. Each one of the 300 D, E pairs calculated by the automated procedure reproduces about 80% of the E values and about 60% of the D values calculated by the expert procedure. Unfortunately, no standard methods are available for checking the forecasting ability of both the expert and the automated reconstruction of the true D, E pairs that result in shallow landslide. Nonetheless, a statistical analysis on marginal distributions of the seven samples of 300 D and E values are performed in this study. The main objective of this statistical analysis is to highlight similarities and differences in the two sets of samples of Duration and Cumulated values collected by the two procedures. At first, the sample distributions have been investigated: the seven E samples are Lognormal distributed, whereas the D samples are all distributed Weibull like. On E samples, due to their Lognormal distribution, statistical tests can be applied to check two null hypotheses: equal mean values through the Student test, equal standard deviations through the Fisher test. These two hypotheses are accepted for the seven E samples, meaning that they come from the same population, at a confidence level of 95%. Conversely, the preceding tests cannot be applied to the seven D samples that are Weibull distributed with shape parameters k ranging between 0.9 to 1.2. Nonetheless, the two procedures calculate the rainfall event through the selection of the E values; after that the D is drawn. Thus, the results of this statistical analysis preliminary confirms the similarities of the two D,E pair set of values drawn from the two different procedures. References Brunetti, M.T., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Luciani, S., Valigi, D., and Guzzetti, F.: Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 447-458, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-447-2010, 2010. Vessia G., Parise M., Brunetti M.T., Peruccacci S., Rossi M., Vennari C., and Guzzetti F.: Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2399-2408, doi: 10.5194/nhess-14-2399-2014, 2014.

Flexural resistance of heat-pressed and CAD-CAM lithium disilicate with different translucencies.

PubMed

Fabian Fonzar, Riccardo; Carrabba, Michele; Sedda, Maurizio; Ferrari, Marco; Goracci, Cecilia; Vichi, Alessandro

2017-01-01

To compare flexural strength of CAD-CAM and heat-pressed lithium disilicate. For Pressed specimens (Group A), acrylate polymer blocks were cut with a saw in bars shape. Sprueing, investing and preheating procedures were carried out following manufacturer's instructions. IPS e.max Press ingots (Ivoclar-Vivadent) were divided into subgroups (n=15) according to translucency: A.1=HT-A3; A.2=MT-A3; A.3=LT-A3; A.4=MO2. Ingots were then pressed following manufacturer's instructions. For CAD-CAM specimens (Group B) blocks of IPS e.max CAD (Ivoclar-Vivadent) were divided into subgroups: B.1=HT-A3; B.2=MT-A3; B.3=LT-A3; B.4=MO2. Specimens (n=15) were obtained by cutting the blocks with a saw. Final crystallization was performed following manufacturer's instructions. Both Press and CAD specimens were polished and finished with silica carbide papers of increasing grit. Final dimensions of the specimens were 4.0±0.2mm, 1.2±0.2mm, and 16.0±0.2mm. Specimens were tested using a three-point bending test. Flexural strength, Weibull modulus, and Weibull characteristic strength were calculated. Flexural strength data were statistically analyzed. The overall means of Press and CAD specimens did not differ significantly. Within the Press group different translucencies were found to have similar flexural strength. Within the CAD group, statistically significant differences emerged among the tested translucencies (p<0.001). Specifically, MT had significantly higher flexural strength than HT and MO. Also, LT exhibited significantly higher flexural strength than MO. The choice between IPS e.max Press and IPS e.max CAD formulations can be based on different criteria than flexural resistance. Within each formulation, for IPS e.max Press translucency does not affect the flexural strength while for IPS e.max CAD it is an influential factor. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetic Analysis of Isothermal Decomposition Process of Sodium Bicarbonate Using the Weibull Probability Function—Estimation of Density Distribution Functions of the Apparent Activation Energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janković, Bojan

2009-10-01

The decomposition process of sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3) has been studied by thermogravimetry in isothermal conditions at four different operating temperatures (380 K, 400 K, 420 K, and 440 K). It was found that the experimental integral and differential conversion curves at the different operating temperatures can be successfully described by the isothermal Weibull distribution function with a unique value of the shape parameter ( β = 1.07). It was also established that the Weibull distribution parameters ( β and η) show independent behavior on the operating temperature. Using the integral and differential (Friedman) isoconversional methods, in the conversion (α) range of 0.20 ≤ α ≤ 0.80, the apparent activation energy ( E a ) value was approximately constant ( E a, int = 95.2 kJmol-1 and E a, diff = 96.6 kJmol-1, respectively). The values of E a calculated by both isoconversional methods are in good agreement with the value of E a evaluated from the Arrhenius equation (94.3 kJmol-1), which was expressed through the scale distribution parameter ( η). The Málek isothermal procedure was used for estimation of the kinetic model for the investigated decomposition process. It was found that the two-parameter Šesták-Berggren (SB) autocatalytic model best describes the NaHCO3 decomposition process with the conversion function f(α) = α0.18(1-α)1.19. It was also concluded that the calculated density distribution functions of the apparent activation energies ( ddfE a ’s) are not dependent on the operating temperature, which exhibit the highly symmetrical behavior (shape factor = 1.00). The obtained isothermal decomposition results were compared with corresponding results of the nonisothermal decomposition process of NaHCO3.

Evaluation of the resistance to cyclic fatigue among ProTaper Next, ProTaper Universal, and Vortex Blue rotary instruments.

PubMed

Nguyen, Harrison H; Fong, Hanson; Paranjpe, Avina; Flake, Natasha M; Johnson, James D; Peters, Ove A

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the fracture resistance to cyclic fatigue of ProTaper Next (PTN; Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties, Tulsa, OK), ProTaper Universal (PTU, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties), and Vortex Blue (VB, Dentsply Tulsa Dental Specialties) rotary instruments. Twenty instruments each of PTN X1-X5, PTU S1-F5, and VB 20/04-50/04 were rotated until fracture in a simulated canal of 90° and a 5-mm radius using a custom-made testing platform. The number of cycles to fracture (NCF) was calculated. Weibull analysis was used to predict the maximum number of cycles when 99% of the instrument samples survive. VB 20/04-30/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S1-F5 and PTN X1-X5. VB 35/04-45/04 had significantly higher NCF than PTU S2-F5 and PTN X2-X5. PTN X1 had higher NCF than PTU S1-F5. PTN X2 had higher NCF than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution predicted the highest number of cycles at which 99% of instruments survive to be 766 cycles for VB 25/04 and the lowest to be 50 cycles for PTU F2. Under the limitations of this study, VB 20/04-45/04 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTN X2-X5 and PTU S2-F5. PTN X1 and X2 were more resistant to cyclic fatigue than PTU F2-F5. The Weibull distribution appears to be a feasible and potentially clinically relevant model to predict resistance to cyclic fatigue. Copyright © 2014 American Association of Endodontists. All rights reserved.

Effect of high pressure hydrogen on the mechanical characteristics of single carbon fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeon, Sang Koo; Kwon, Oh Heon; Jang, Hoon-Sik; Ryu, Kwon Sang; Nahm, Seung Hoon

2018-02-01

In this study, carbon fiber was exposed to a pressure of 7 MPa for 24 h in high pressure chamber. The tensile test for carbon fiber was conducted to estimate the effect on the high pressure hydrogen in the atmosphere. To determine the tensile strength and Weibull modulus, approximately thirty carbon fiber samples were measured in all cases, and carbon fiber exposed to high pressure argon was evaluated to verify only the effect of hydrogen. Additionally, carbon fiber samples were annealed at 1950 °C for 1 h for a comparison with normal carbon fiber and then tested under identical conditions. The results showed that the tensile strength scatter of normal carbon fiber exposed to hydrogen was relatively wider and the Weibull modulus was decreased. Moreover, the tensile strength of the annealed carbon fiber exposed to hydrogen was increased, and these samples indicated a complex Weibull modulus because the hydrogen stored in the carbon fiber influenced the mechanical characteristic.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed timemore » using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.« less

Survival Analysis and Actuarial Parameters of Sternechus subsignatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Adults.

PubMed

Guillermina Socías, María; Van Nieuwenhove, Guido; Murúa, María Gabriela; Willink, Eduardo; Liljesthröm, Gerardo Gustavo

2016-04-01

The soybean stalk weevil, Sternechus subsignatus Boheman 1836 (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is a very serious soybean pest in the Neotropical region. Both adults and larvae feed on soybean, causing significant yield losses. Adult survival was evaluated during three soybean growing seasons under controlled environmental conditions. A survival analysis was performed using a parametric survival fit approach in order to generate survival curves and obtain information that could help optimize integrated management strategies for this weevil pest. Sex of the weevils, crop season, fortnight in which weevils emerged, and their interaction were studied regarding their effect on adult survival. The results showed that females lived longer than males, but both genders were actually long-lived, reaching 224 and 176 d, respectively. Mean lifetime (l50) was 121.88±4.56 d for females and 89.58±2.72 d for males. Although variations were observed in adult longevities among emergence fortnights and soybean seasons, only in December and January fortnights of the 2007–2008 season and December fortnights of 2009–2010 did the statistically longest and shortest longevities occur, respectively. Survivorship data (lx) of adult females and males were fitted to the Weibull frequency distribution model. The survival curve was type I for both sexes, which indicated that mortality corresponded mostly to old individuals.

Recognition of battery aging variations for LiFePO4 batteries in 2nd use applications combining incremental capacity analysis and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yan; Jiang, Jiuchun; Zhang, Caiping; Zhang, Weige; Gao, Yang; Guo, Qipei

2017-08-01

To assess the economic benefits of battery reuse, the consistency and aging characteristics of a retired LiFePO4 battery pack are studied in this paper. The consistency of battery modules is analyzed from the perspective of the capacity and the internal resistance. Test results indicate that battery module parameter dispersion increases along with battery aging. However, battery modules with better capacity consistency doesn't ensure better resistance consistency. Then the aging characteristics of the battery pack are analyzed and the main results are as follow: (1) Weibull and normal distribution are feasible to fit the capacity and resistance distribution of battery modules respectively; (2) SOC imbalance is the dominating factor in the capacity fading process of the battery pack; (3) By employing the incremental capacity (IC) and IC peak area analysis, a consistency evaluation method representing the aging mechanism variations of the battery modules is proposed and then an accurate battery screening strategy is put forward. This study not only provides data support for evaluating economic benefits of retired batteries but also presents a method to recognize the battery aging variations, which is helpful for rapid evaluation and screening of retired batteries for 2nd use.

Processing, thermal and mechanical behaviour of PEI/MWCNT/carbon fiber nanostructured laminate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, L. F. P.; Ribeiro, B.; Hein, L. R. O.; Botelho, E. C.; Costa, M. L.

2017-11-01

In this work, nanostructured composites of polyetherimide (PEI) with addition of functionalized multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) were processed via solution mixing. After processing, these nanocomposites were evaluated by thermogravimetry (TGA), dynamic-mechanical analysis (DMA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and atomic force microscopy (AFM). Subsequently, the nanocomposite was processed with carbon fibers by using hot compression molding. In order to evaluate interlaminar fracture strength, the processed laminates were mechanically evaluated by interlaminar shear strength (ILSS) and compression shear test (CST). Also, the Weibull distribution was employed to help in the statistical treatment of the data obtained from the mechanical tests. With regards to the fracture of the specimens, optical microscopy was used for the evaluation of the material. The addition of 1 wt% of MWCNT in the polymer matrix increased both thermal stability and viscoelastic behavior of the material. These improvements positively impacted the mechanical properties, generating a 16% and 58% increase in the short-beam strength and apparent interlaminar shear, respectively. In addition, it can be verified from morphological analysis of the fracture a change in the failure mode of the laminate by the incorporation of MWCNT. This behavior can be proven from CST test where there was no presence of the shear force by compression.

Kinetics of Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger Spores and Staphylococcus albus on Paper by Chlorine Dioxide Gas in an Enclosed Space.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Wu, Jinhui; Qi, Jiancheng; Hao, Limei; Yi, Ying; Zhang, Zongxing

2016-05-15

Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spore and Staphylococcus albus are typical biological indicators for the inactivation of airborne pathogens. The present study characterized and compared the behaviors of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus in regard to inactivation by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas under different gas concentrations and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The inactivation kinetics under different ClO2 gas concentrations (1 to 5 mg/liter) were determined by first-order and Weibull models. A new model (the Weibull-H model) was established to reveal the inactivation tendency and kinetics for ClO2 gas under different RH conditions (30 to 90%). The results showed that both the gas concentration and RH were significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the inactivation of the two chosen indicators. There was a rapid improvement in the inactivation efficiency under high RH (>70%). Compared with the first-order model, the Weibull and Weibull-H models demonstrated a better fit for the experimental data, indicating nonlinear inactivation behaviors of the vegetative bacteria and spores following exposure to ClO2 gas. The times to achieve a six-log reduction of B. subtilis subsp. niger spore and S. albus were calculated based on the established models. Clarifying the kinetics of inactivation of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus by ClO2 gas will allow the development of ClO2 gas treatments that provide an effective disinfection method. Chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas is a novel and effective fumigation agent with strong oxidization ability and a broad biocidal spectrum. The antimicrobial efficacy of ClO2 gas has been evaluated in many previous studies. However, there are presently no published models that can be used to describe the kinetics of inactivation of airborne pathogens by ClO2 gas under different gas concentrations and RH conditions. The first-order and Weibull (Weibull-H) models established in this study can characterize and compare the behaviors of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spores and Staphylococcus albus in regard to inactivation by ClO2 gas, determine the kinetics of inactivation of two chosen strains under different conditions of gas concentration and RH, and provide the calculated time to achieve a six-log reduction. These results will be useful to determine effective conditions for ClO2 gas to inactivate airborne pathogens in contaminated air and other environments and thus prevent outbreaks of airborne illness. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction, Theory, and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2016-01-01

A tutorial is presented outlining the evolution, theory, and application of rolling-element bearing life prediction from that of A. Palmgren, 1924; W. Weibull, 1939; G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, 1947 and 1952; E. Ioannides and T. Harris, 1985; and E. Zaretsky, 1987. Comparisons are made between these life models. The Ioannides-Harris model without a fatigue limit is identical to the Lundberg-Palmgren model. The Weibull model is similar to that of Zaretsky if the exponents are chosen to be identical. Both the load-life and Hertz stress-life relations of Weibull, Lundberg and Palmgren, and Ioannides and Harris reflect a strong dependence on the Weibull slope. The Zaretsky model decouples the dependence of the critical shear stress-life relation from the Weibull slope. This results in a nominal variation of the Hertz stress-life exponent. For 9th- and 8th-power Hertz stress-life exponents for ball and roller bearings, respectively, the Lundberg-Palmgren model best predicts life. However, for 12th- and 10th-power relations reflected by modern bearing steels, the Zaretsky model based on the Weibull equation is superior. Under the range of stresses examined, the use of a fatigue limit would suggest that (for most operating conditions under which a rolling-element bearing will operate) the bearing will not fail from classical rolling-element fatigue. Realistically, this is not the case. The use of a fatigue limit will significantly overpredict life over a range of normal operating Hertz stresses. (The use of ISO 281:2007 with a fatigue limit in these calculations would result in a bearing life approaching infinity.) Since the predicted lives of rolling-element bearings are high, the problem can become one of undersizing a bearing for a particular application. Rules had been developed to distinguish and compare predicted lives with those actually obtained. Based upon field and test results of 51 ball and roller bearing sets, 98 percent of these bearing sets had acceptable life results using the Lundberg- Palmgren equations with life adjustment factors to predict bearing life. That is, they had lives equal to or greater than that predicted. The Lundberg-Palmgren model was used to predict the life of a commercial turboprop gearbox. The life prediction was compared with the field lives of 64 gearboxes. From these results, the roller bearing lives exhibited a load-life exponent of 5.2, which correlated with the Zaretsky model. The use of the ANSI/ABMA and ISO standards load-life exponent of 10/3 to predict roller bearing life is not reflective of modern roller bearings and will underpredict bearing lives.

Kinetics of Inactivation of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger Spores and Staphylococcus albus on Paper by Chlorine Dioxide Gas in an Enclosed Space

PubMed Central

Wang, Tao; Wu, Jinhui; Hao, Limei; Yi, Ying; Zhang, Zongxing

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spore and Staphylococcus albus are typical biological indicators for the inactivation of airborne pathogens. The present study characterized and compared the behaviors of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus in regard to inactivation by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas under different gas concentrations and relative humidity (RH) conditions. The inactivation kinetics under different ClO2 gas concentrations (1 to 5 mg/liter) were determined by first-order and Weibull models. A new model (the Weibull-H model) was established to reveal the inactivation tendency and kinetics for ClO2 gas under different RH conditions (30 to 90%). The results showed that both the gas concentration and RH were significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the inactivation of the two chosen indicators. There was a rapid improvement in the inactivation efficiency under high RH (>70%). Compared with the first-order model, the Weibull and Weibull-H models demonstrated a better fit for the experimental data, indicating nonlinear inactivation behaviors of the vegetative bacteria and spores following exposure to ClO2 gas. The times to achieve a six-log reduction of B. subtilis subsp. niger spore and S. albus were calculated based on the established models. Clarifying the kinetics of inactivation of B. subtilis subsp. niger spores and S. albus by ClO2 gas will allow the development of ClO2 gas treatments that provide an effective disinfection method. IMPORTANCE Chlorine dioxide (ClO2) gas is a novel and effective fumigation agent with strong oxidization ability and a broad biocidal spectrum. The antimicrobial efficacy of ClO2 gas has been evaluated in many previous studies. However, there are presently no published models that can be used to describe the kinetics of inactivation of airborne pathogens by ClO2 gas under different gas concentrations and RH conditions. The first-order and Weibull (Weibull-H) models established in this study can characterize and compare the behaviors of Bacillus subtilis subsp. niger spores and Staphylococcus albus in regard to inactivation by ClO2 gas, determine the kinetics of inactivation of two chosen strains under different conditions of gas concentration and RH, and provide the calculated time to achieve a six-log reduction. These results will be useful to determine effective conditions for ClO2 gas to inactivate airborne pathogens in contaminated air and other environments and thus prevent outbreaks of airborne illness. PMID:26969707

Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC-SiC CMC tubular test specimens [Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC/SiC tubes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Gyanender P.; Gonczy, Steve T.; Deck, Christian P.

An interlaboratory round robin study was conducted on the tensile strength of SiC–SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) tubular test specimens at room temperature with the objective of expanding the database of mechanical properties of nuclear grade SiC–SiC and establishing the precision and bias statement for standard test method ASTM C1773. The mechanical properties statistics from the round robin study and the precision statistics and precision statement are presented herein. The data show reasonable consistency across the laboratories, indicating that the current C1773–13 ASTM standard is adequate for testing ceramic fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composite tubular test specimen. Furthermore, it wasmore » found that the distribution of ultimate tensile strength data was best described with a two–parameter Weibull distribution, while a lognormal distribution provided a good description of the distribution of proportional limit stress data.« less

The topology of large Open Connectome networks for the human brain.

PubMed

Gastner, Michael T; Ódor, Géza

2016-06-07

The structural human connectome (i.e. the network of fiber connections in the brain) can be analyzed at ever finer spatial resolution thanks to advances in neuroimaging. Here we analyze several large data sets for the human brain network made available by the Open Connectome Project. We apply statistical model selection to characterize the degree distributions of graphs containing up to nodes and edges. A three-parameter generalized Weibull (also known as a stretched exponential) distribution is a good fit to most of the observed degree distributions. For almost all networks, simple power laws cannot fit the data, but in some cases there is statistical support for power laws with an exponential cutoff. We also calculate the topological (graph) dimension D and the small-world coefficient σ of these networks. While σ suggests a small-world topology, we found that D < 4 showing that long-distance connections provide only a small correction to the topology of the embedding three-dimensional space.

The topology of large Open Connectome networks for the human brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastner, Michael T.; Ódor, Géza

2016-06-01

The structural human connectome (i.e. the network of fiber connections in the brain) can be analyzed at ever finer spatial resolution thanks to advances in neuroimaging. Here we analyze several large data sets for the human brain network made available by the Open Connectome Project. We apply statistical model selection to characterize the degree distributions of graphs containing up to nodes and edges. A three-parameter generalized Weibull (also known as a stretched exponential) distribution is a good fit to most of the observed degree distributions. For almost all networks, simple power laws cannot fit the data, but in some cases there is statistical support for power laws with an exponential cutoff. We also calculate the topological (graph) dimension D and the small-world coefficient σ of these networks. While σ suggests a small-world topology, we found that D < 4 showing that long-distance connections provide only a small correction to the topology of the embedding three-dimensional space.

Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC-SiC CMC tubular test specimens [Interlaboratory round robin study on axial tensile properties of SiC/SiC tubes

DOE PAGES

Singh, Gyanender P.; Gonczy, Steve T.; Deck, Christian P.; ...

2018-04-19

An interlaboratory round robin study was conducted on the tensile strength of SiC–SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) tubular test specimens at room temperature with the objective of expanding the database of mechanical properties of nuclear grade SiC–SiC and establishing the precision and bias statement for standard test method ASTM C1773. The mechanical properties statistics from the round robin study and the precision statistics and precision statement are presented herein. The data show reasonable consistency across the laboratories, indicating that the current C1773–13 ASTM standard is adequate for testing ceramic fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composite tubular test specimen. Furthermore, it wasmore » found that the distribution of ultimate tensile strength data was best described with a two–parameter Weibull distribution, while a lognormal distribution provided a good description of the distribution of proportional limit stress data.« less

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

PubMed

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

Certification Testing Methodology for Composite Structure. Volume 2. Methodology Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-10-01

parameter, sample size and fa- tigue test duration. The required input are 1. Residual strength Weibull shape parameter ( ALPR ) 2. Fatigue life Weibull shape...INPUT STRENGTH ALPHA’) READ(*,*) ALPR ALPRI = 1.O/ ALPR WRITE(*, 2) 2 FORMAT( 2X, ’PLEASE INPUT LIFE ALPHA’) READ(*,*) ALPL ALPLI - 1.0/ALPL WRITE(*, 3...3 FORMAT(2X,’PLEASE INPUT SAMPLE SIZE’) READ(*,*) N AN - N WRITE(*,4) 4 FORMAT(2X,’PLEASE INPUT TEST DURATION’) READ(*,*) T RALP - ALPL/ ALPR ARGR - 1

The effect of coloring liquid dipping time on the fracture load and color of zirconia ceramics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

PURPOSE The aims of the study were to evaluate the fracture load of zirconia core material after dipping in coloring liquid at different time intervals and to compare the color of dipped blocks with that of prefabricated shaded blocks. MATERIALS AND METHODS 3-unit bridge frameworks were designed digitally. Sixty frameworks were fabricated using uncolored zirconia blocks by CAD/CAM and divided into 4 groups randomly (n = 15). Group 2 (G2) was subjected to coloring liquids for 2 minutes, Group 4 (G4) for 4 minutes, and Group 6 (G6) for 6 minutes. CFS group was not subjected to any coloring procedure. After coloring, color differences between the test groups and a prefabricated shaded zirconia group (CPZ, n = 15) were evaluated by using a spectrophotometer. Fracture test was conducted immediately after shade evaluation with a Testometric test device at a cross-head speed of 1 mm/sec. Statistical analysis for evaluating color and fracture load was performed by using one way ANOVA followed by Tukey HSD test (P ≤ .05). Weibull analysis was conducted for distribution of fracture load. RESULTS There was no difference in terms of fracture load and color between CFS (1176.681 N) and G2 (985.638 N) group and between CPZ (81.340) and G2 (81.140) group, respectively. Fracture load values of G4 (779.340 N) and G6 (935.491 N) groups were statistically significantly lower than that of CFS group (P ≤ .005). The color values of G4 (79.340) and G6 (79.673) groups were statistically different than that of CPZ group (P ≤ .005). CONCLUSION Prolonged immersion of zirconia in coloring liquid not only negatively affected the fracture load of the zirconia being tested in the current study but also deteriorated the desired shade of the restoration. PMID:28243394

The Analysis of Phytoplankton Abundance Using Weibull Distribution (A Case Study in the Coastal Area of East Yapen in the Regency of Yapen Islands, Papua)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Indrayani, Ervina; Dimara, Lisiard; Paiki, Kalvin; Reba, Felix

2018-01-01

The coastal waters of East Yapen is one of the spawning sites and areas of care for marine biota in Papua. Because of its very open location, it is widely used by human activities such as fishing, residential, industrial and cruise lines. This indirectly affects the balance of coastal waters condition of East Yapen that impact on the existence of…

Weibull Analysis and Area Scaling for Infrared Window Materials (U)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

the strength of a window scales inversely with the size of the window. This report was reviewed for technical accuracy by Howard Poisl, Thomas M...strength of a window scales inversely with the size of the window. Test data are given for aluminum oxynitride (ALON), calcium fluoride, chemical vapor...failure of an optical window in the absence of slow crack growth. This report illustrates how the strength of a window scales inversely with the size of

Estimation of the failure risk of a maxillary premolar with different crack depths with endodontic treatment by computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing ceramic restorations.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Li; Chang, Yen-Hsiang; Hsieh, Shih-Kai; Chang, Wen-Jen

2013-03-01

This study evaluated the risk of failure for an endodontically treated premolar with different crack depths, which was shearing toward the pulp chamber and was restored by using 3 different computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing ceramic restoration configurations. Three 3-dimensional finite element models designed with computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing ceramic onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations were constructed to perform simulations. The Weibull function was incorporated with finite element analysis to calculate the long-term failure probability relative to different load conditions. The results indicated that the stress values on the enamel, dentin, and luting cement for endocrown restorations exhibited the lowest values relative to the other 2 restoration methods. Weibull analysis revealed that the overall failure probabilities in a shallow cracked premolar were 27%, 2%, and 1% for the onlay, endocrown, and conventional crown restorations, respectively, in the normal occlusal condition. The corresponding values were 70%, 10%, and 2% for the depth cracked premolar. This numeric investigation suggests that the endocrown provides sufficient fracture resistance only in a shallow cracked premolar with endodontic treatment. The conventional crown treatment can immobilize the premolar for different cracked depths with lower failure risk. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mechanical properties of zirconia reinforced lithium silicate glass-ceramic.

PubMed

Elsaka, Shaymaa E; Elnaghy, Amr M

2016-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the mechanical properties of recently introduced zirconia reinforced lithium silicate glass-ceramic. Two types of CAD/CAM glass-ceramics (Vita Suprinity (VS); zirconia reinforced lithium silicate and IPS e.max CAD (IC); lithium disilicate) were used. Fracture toughness, flexural strength, elastic modulus, hardness, brittleness index, and microstructures were evaluated. Data were analyzed using independent t tests. Weibull analysis of flexural strength data was also performed. VS had significantly higher fracture toughness (2.31±0.17MPam(0.5)), flexural strength (443.63±38.90MPa), elastic modulus (70.44±1.97GPa), and hardness (6.53±0.49GPa) than IC (P<0.001). On the other hand, VS glass-ceramic revealed significantly a higher brittleness index (2.84±0.26μm(-1/2)) (lower machinability) than IC glass-ceramic (P<0.05). VS demonstrated a homogeneous fine crystalline structure while, IC revealed a structure with needle-shaped fine-grained crystals embedded in a glassy matrix. The VS glass-ceramic revealed a lower probability of failure and a higher strength than IC glass-ceramic according to Weibull analysis. The VS zirconia reinforced lithium silicate glass-ceramic revealed higher mechanical properties compared with IC lithium disilicate glass-ceramic. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bonus-Malus System with the Claim Frequency Distribution is Geometric and the Severity Distribution is Truncated Weibull

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santi, D. N.; Purnaba, I. G. P.; Mangku, I. W.

2016-01-01

Bonus-Malus system is said to be optimal if it is financially balanced for insurance companies and fair for policyholders. Previous research about Bonus-Malus system concern with the determination of the risk premium which applied to all of the severity that guaranteed by the insurance company. In fact, not all of the severity that proposed by policyholder may be covered by insurance company. When the insurance company sets a maximum bound of the severity incurred, so it is necessary to modify the model of the severity distribution into the severity bound distribution. In this paper, optimal Bonus-Malus system is compound of claim frequency component has geometric distribution and severity component has truncated Weibull distribution is discussed. The number of claims considered to follow a Poisson distribution, and the expected number λ is exponentially distributed, so the number of claims has a geometric distribution. The severity with a given parameter θ is considered to have a truncated exponential distribution is modelled using the Levy distribution, so the severity have a truncated Weibull distribution.

The Effect of Sr Modifier Additions on Double Oxide Film Defects in 2L99 Alloy Castings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qi; Griffiths, W. D.

2017-11-01

In this paper, Sr modifier (300 ppm) was added to 2L99 alloy sand castings to investigate its effect on bifilm defects in the castings. Two different sand molds were used in this study, with good and bad running system designs, to introduce different amounts of bifilm defects into the castings. The mechanical properties of the modified 2L99 castings were compared to the properties of unmodified castings and showed that with high bifilm defect contents (H) the Sr addition reduced the Weibull modulus of the UTS by 67 pct and the Position Parameter by 5 pct, and introduced a bimodal distribution into the Weibull plot of the pct Elongation. However, for castings with low bifilm defect content (L), the Weibull moduli of both the UTS and pct Elongation were significantly improved (by 78 and 73 pct, respectively) with the addition of Sr. The Position Parameter of the pct Elongation was improved by 135 pct. The results suggested that a desirable modification effect can only be achieved while the bifilm defect content in a casting was low.

A Model Based on Environmental Factors for Diameter Distribution in Black Wattle in Brazil

PubMed Central

Sanquetta, Carlos Roberto; Behling, Alexandre; Dalla Corte, Ana Paula; Péllico Netto, Sylvio; Rodrigues, Aurelio Lourenço; Simon, Augusto Arlindo

2014-01-01

This article discusses the dynamics of a diameter distribution in stands of black wattle throughout its growth cycle using the Weibull probability density function. Moreover, the parameters of this distribution were related to environmental variables from meteorological data and surface soil horizon with the aim of finding a model for diameter distribution which their coefficients were related to the environmental variables. We found that the diameter distribution of the stand changes only slightly over time and that the estimators of the Weibull function are correlated with various environmental variables, with accumulated rainfall foremost among them. Thus, a model was obtained in which the estimators of the Weibull function are dependent on rainfall. Such a function can have important applications, such as in simulating growth potential in regions where historical growth data is lacking, as well as the behavior of the stand under different environmental conditions. The model can also be used to project growth in diameter, based on the rainfall affecting the forest over a certain time period. PMID:24932909

Migration kinetics of four photo-initiators from paper food packaging to solid food simulants.

PubMed

Cai, Huimei; Ji, Shuilin; Zhang, Juzhou; Tao, Gushuai; Peng, Chuanyi; Hou, Ruyan; Zhang, Liang; Sun, Yue; Wan, Xiaochun

2017-09-01

The migration behaviour of four photo-initiators (BP, EHA, MBP and Irgacure 907) was studied by 'printing' onto four different food-packaging materials (Kraft paper, white cardboard, Polyethylene (PE)-coated paper and composite paper) and tracking movement into the food simulant: Tenax-TA (porous polymer 2,6-diphenyl furan resin). The results indicated that the migration of the photo-initiators was related to the molecular weight and log K o/w of each photo-initiator. At different temperatures, the migration rates of the photo-initiators were different in papers with different thicknesses. The amount of each photo-initiator found in the food was closely related to the food matrix. The Weibull model was used to predict the migration load into the food simulants by calculating the parameters τ and β and determining the relationship of the two parameters with temperature and paper thickness. The established Weibull model was then used to predict the migration of each photo-initiator with respect to different foods. A two-parameter Weibull model fitted the actual situation, with some deviation from the actual migration amount.

A Weibull model to describe antimicrobial kinetics of oregano and lemongrass essential oils against Salmonella Enteritidis in ground beef during refrigerated storage.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Thales Leandro Coutinho; Soares, Rodrigo de Araújo; Piccoli, Roberta Hilsdorf

2013-03-01

The antimicrobial effect of oregano (Origanum vulgare L.) and lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus (DC.) Stapf.) essential oils (EOs) against Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis in in vitro experiments, and inoculated in ground bovine meat during refrigerated storage (4±2 °C) for 6 days was evaluated. The Weibull model was tested to fit survival/inactivation bacterial curves (estimating of p and δ parameters). The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) value for both EOs on S. Enteritidis was 3.90 μl/ml. The EO concentrations applied in the ground beef were 3.90, 7.80 and 15.60 μl/g, based on MIC levels and possible activity reduction by food constituents. Both evaluated EOs in all tested levels, showed antimicrobial effects, with microbial populations reducing (p≤0.05) along time storage. Evaluating fit-quality parameters (RSS and RSE) Weibull models are able to describe the inactivation curves of EOs against S. Enteritidis. The application of EOs in processed meats can be used to control pathogens during refrigerated shelf-life. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent strength degradation of a siliconized silicon carbide determined by dynamic fatigue

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breder, K.

1995-10-01

Both fast-fracture strength and strength as a function of stressing rate at room temperature, 1,100, and 1,400 C were measured for a siliconized SiC. The fast-fracture strength increased slightly from 386 MPa at room temperature to 424 MPa at 1,100 C and then dropped to 308 MPa at 1,400 C. The Weibull moduli at room temperature and 1,100 were 10.8 and 7.8, respectively, whereas, at 1,400 C, the Weibull modulus was 2.8. The very low Weibull modulus at 1,400 C was due to the existence of two exclusive flaw populations with very different characteristic strengths. The data were reanalyzed usingmore » two exclusive flaw populations. The ceramic showed no slow crack growth (SCG), as measured by dynamic fatigue at 1,100 C, but, at 1,400 C, an SCG parameter, n, of 15.5 was measured. Fractography showed SCG zones consisting of cracks grown out from silicon-rich areas. Time-to-failure predictions at given levels of failure probabilities were performed.« less

Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2008-10-01

The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade durations, where the empirical density functions of the normalized intertrade durations of all 23 stocks collapse onto a single curve. The scaling pattern is also observed in the intertrade duration distributions for filled and partially filled trades and in the conditional distributions. The ensemble distributions for all stocks are modeled by the Weibull and the Tsallis q-exponential distributions. Maximum likelihood estimation shows that the Weibull distribution outperforms the q-exponential for not-too-large intertrade durations which account for more than 98.5% of the data. Alternatively, nonlinear least-squares estimation selects the q-exponential as a better model, in which the optimization is conducted on the distance between empirical and theoretical values of the logarithmic probability densities. The distribution of intertrade durations is Weibull followed by a power-law tail with an asymptotic tail exponent close to 3.

Comparison of linear, skewed-linear, and proportional hazard models for the analysis of lambing interval in Ripollesa ewes.

PubMed

Casellas, J; Bach, R

2012-06-01

Lambing interval is a relevant reproductive indicator for sheep populations under continuous mating systems, although there is a shortage of selection programs accounting for this trait in the sheep industry. Both the historical assumption of small genetic background and its unorthodox distribution pattern have limited its implementation as a breeding objective. In this manuscript, statistical performances of 3 alternative parametrizations [i.e., symmetric Gaussian mixed linear (GML) model, skew-Gaussian mixed linear (SGML) model, and piecewise Weibull proportional hazard (PWPH) model] have been compared to elucidate the preferred methodology to handle lambing interval data. More specifically, flock-by-flock analyses were performed on 31,986 lambing interval records (257.3 ± 0.2 d) from 6 purebred Ripollesa flocks. Model performances were compared in terms of deviance information criterion (DIC) and Bayes factor (BF). For all flocks, PWPH models were clearly preferred; they generated a reduction of 1,900 or more DIC units and provided BF estimates larger than 100 (i.e., PWPH models against linear models). These differences were reduced when comparing PWPH models with different number of change points for the baseline hazard function. In 4 flocks, only 2 change points were required to minimize the DIC, whereas 4 and 6 change points were needed for the 2 remaining flocks. These differences demonstrated a remarkable degree of heterogeneity across sheep flocks that must be properly accounted for in genetic evaluation models to avoid statistical biases and suboptimal genetic trends. Within this context, all 6 Ripollesa flocks revealed substantial genetic background for lambing interval with heritabilities ranging between 0.13 and 0.19. This study provides the first evidence of the suitability of PWPH models for lambing interval analysis, clearly discarding previous parametrizations focused on mixed linear models.

A general framework for parametric survival analysis.

PubMed

Crowther, Michael J; Lambert, Paul C

2014-12-30

Parametric survival models are being increasingly used as an alternative to the Cox model in biomedical research. Through direct modelling of the baseline hazard function, we can gain greater understanding of the risk profile of patients over time, obtaining absolute measures of risk. Commonly used parametric survival models, such as the Weibull, make restrictive assumptions of the baseline hazard function, such as monotonicity, which is often violated in clinical datasets. In this article, we extend the general framework of parametric survival models proposed by Crowther and Lambert (Journal of Statistical Software 53:12, 2013), to incorporate relative survival, and robust and cluster robust standard errors. We describe the general framework through three applications to clinical datasets, in particular, illustrating the use of restricted cubic splines, modelled on the log hazard scale, to provide a highly flexible survival modelling framework. Through the use of restricted cubic splines, we can derive the cumulative hazard function analytically beyond the boundary knots, resulting in a combined analytic/numerical approach, which substantially improves the estimation process compared with only using numerical integration. User-friendly Stata software is provided, which significantly extends parametric survival models available in standard software. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of Grain Refinement and Cooling Rate on the Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Secondary Al-Si-Cu Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timelli, Giulio; Camicia, Giordano; Ferraro, Stefano

2014-02-01

The effect of AlTi5B1 grain refinement and different solidification rates on metallurgical and mechanical properties of a secondary AlSi7Cu3Mg alloy is reported. While the Ti content ranges from 0.04 up to 0.225 wt.%, the cooling rate varies between 0.1 and 5.5 °C/s. Metallographic and thermal analysis techniques have been used to quantitatively examine the macro- and microstructural changes occurring with grain refiner addition at various cooling rates. The results indicate that a small AlTi5B1 addition produces the greatest refinement, while no significant reduction of grain size is obtained with a great amount of grain refiner. On increasing the cooling rate, a lower amount of AlTi5B1 master alloy is necessary to produce a uniform grain size throughout the casting. The combined addition of AlTi5B1 and Sr does not produce any reciprocal interaction or effect on primary α-Al and eutectic solidification. The grain refinement improves the plastic behavior of the alloy and increases the reliability of castings, as evidenced by the Weibull statistics.

Subcritical crack growth in SiNx thin-film barriers studied by electro-mechanical two-point bending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Qingling; Laven, Jozua; Bouten, Piet C. P.; de With, Gijsbertus

2013-06-01

Mechanical failure resulting from subcritical crack growth in the SiNx inorganic barrier layer applied on a flexible multilayer structure was studied by an electro-mechanical two-point bending method. A 10 nm conducting tin-doped indium oxide layer was sputtered as an electrical probe to monitor the subcritical crack growth in the 150 nm dielectric SiNx layer carried by a polyethylene naphthalate substrate. In the electro-mechanical two-point bending test, dynamic and static loads were applied to investigate the crack propagation in the barrier layer. As consequence of using two loading modes, the characteristic failure strain and failure time could be determined. The failure probability distribution of strain and lifetime under each loading condition was described by Weibull statistics. In this study, results from the tests in dynamic and static loading modes were linked by a power law description to determine the critical failure over a range of conditions. The fatigue parameter n from the power law reduces greatly from 70 to 31 upon correcting for internal strain. The testing method and analysis tool as described in the paper can be used to understand the limit of thin-film barriers in terms of their mechanical properties.

The utilization of six sigma and statistical process control techniques in surgical quality improvement.

PubMed

Sedlack, Jeffrey D

2010-01-01

Surgeons have been slow to incorporate industrial reliability techniques. Process control methods were applied to surgeon waiting time between cases, and to length of stay (LOS) after colon surgery. Waiting times between surgeries were evaluated by auditing the operating room records of a single hospital over a 1-month period. The medical records of 628 patients undergoing colon surgery over a 5-year period were reviewed. The average surgeon wait time between cases was 53 min, and the busiest surgeon spent 291/2 hr in 1 month waiting between surgeries. Process control charting demonstrated poor overall control of the room turnover process. Average LOS after colon resection also demonstrated very poor control. Mean LOS was 10 days. Weibull's conditional analysis revealed a conditional LOS of 9.83 days. Serious process management problems were identified in both analyses. These process issues are both expensive and adversely affect the quality of service offered by the institution. Process control mechanisms were suggested or implemented to improve these surgical processes. Industrial reliability and quality management tools can easily and effectively identify process control problems that occur on surgical services. © 2010 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

Zirconia changes after grinding and regeneration firing.

PubMed

Hatanaka, Gabriel R; Polli, Gabriela S; Fais, Laiza M G; Reis, José Maurício Dos S N; Pinelli, Lígia A P

2017-07-01

Despite improvements in computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD-CAM) systems, grinding during either laboratory procedures or clinical adjustments is often needed to modify the shape of 3 mol(%) yttria-tetragonal zirconia polycrystal (3Y-TZP) restorations. However, the best way to achieve adjustment is unclear. The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate the microstructural and crystallographic phase changes, flexural strength, and Weibull modulus of a 3Y-TZP zirconia after grinding with or without water cooling and regeneration firing. Ninety-six bar-shaped specimens were obtained and divided as follows: as-sintered, control; as-sintered with regeneration firing; grinding without water cooling; grinding and regeneration firing with water cooling; and grinding and regeneration firing. Grinding (0.3 mm) was performed with a 150-μm diamond rotary instrument in a high-speed handpiece. For regeneration firing, the specimens were annealed at 1000°C for 30 minutes. The crystalline phases were evaluated by using x-ray powder diffraction. A 4-point bending test was conducted (10 kN; 0.5 mm/min). The Weibull modulus was used to analyze strength reliability. The microstructure was analyzed by scanning electron microscopy. Data from the flexural strength test were evaluated using the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn tests (α=.05). Tetragonal-to-monoclinic phase transformation was identified in the ground specimens; R regeneration firing groups showed only the tetragonal phase. The median flexural strength of as-sintered specimens was 642.0; 699.3 MPa for as-sintered specimens with regeneration firing; 770.1 MPa for grinding and water-cooled specimens; 727.3 MPa for specimens produced using water-cooled grinding and regeneration firing; 859.9 MPa for those produced by grinding; and 764.6 for those produced by grinding and regeneration firing; with statistically higher values for the ground groups. The regenerative firing did not affect the flexural strength. Weibull modulus values ranged from 5.3 to 12.4. The SEM images showed semicircular cracks after grinding. Adjustments by grinding in 3Y-TZP frameworks should be performed with water cooling, and regeneration firing should be undertaken to obtain a more reliable material. Copyright © 2016 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Particle shape analysis of volcanic clast samples with the Matlab tool MORPHEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charpentier, Isabelle; Sarocchi, Damiano; Rodriguez Sedano, Luis Angel

2013-02-01

This paper presents a modular Matlab tool, namely MORPHEO, devoted to the study of particle morphology by Fourier analysis. A benchmark made of four sample images with different features (digitized coins, a pebble chart, gears, digitized volcanic clasts) is then proposed to assess the abilities of the software. Attention is brought to the Weibull distribution introduced to enhance fine variations of particle morphology. Finally, as an example, samples pertaining to a lahar deposit located in La Lumbre ravine (Colima Volcano, Mexico) are analysed. MORPHEO and the benchmark are freely available for research purposes.

Effect of Be Modification on the Oxide Bifilms and Tensile Strength Reliability of Al-Si-Mg Alloys Containing Excess Fe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadian Nozari, M.; Taghiabadi, R.; Karimzadeh, M.; Ghoncheh, M. H.

2018-03-01

The effect of oxide bifilms and Be modification (0.2 wt pct) on the tensile strength reliability of the as-cast and T6 heat-treated Al-9Si-0.35Mg-1.5Fe alloy was investigated using Weibull analysis. For this purpose, the density of oxide bifilms in the molten alloy was intentionally increased by surface agitation. According to the results, Be modifies the β-Al5FeSi particles to the less harmful α-Fe compounds and substantially decreases the bifilm density in the castings leading to improved tensile properties and higher reliability. Moreover, the beneficial effect of Be was found to be more in the samples containing higher amounts of bifilms. For instance, in the heat-treated condition, Be increased the Weibull modulus of the non-agitated and surface-agitated samples by 4 and 94 pct, respectively. This improvement can be attributed to the strengthening effect of Be on the young surface oxides so that they resist more against rupture when melt is subjected to the surface turbulence. The reduced pressure test and fractography investigations also confirmed the reduction of bifilm density and bifilm-related defects in Be-modified samples.

Effect of Be Modification on the Oxide Bifilms and Tensile Strength Reliability of Al-Si-Mg Alloys Containing Excess Fe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadian Nozari, M.; Taghiabadi, R.; Karimzadeh, M.; Ghoncheh, M. H.

2018-06-01

The effect of oxide bifilms and Be modification (0.2 wt pct) on the tensile strength reliability of the as-cast and T6 heat-treated Al-9Si-0.35Mg-1.5Fe alloy was investigated using Weibull analysis. For this purpose, the density of oxide bifilms in the molten alloy was intentionally increased by surface agitation. According to the results, Be modifies the β-Al5FeSi particles to the less harmful α-Fe compounds and substantially decreases the bifilm density in the castings leading to improved tensile properties and higher reliability. Moreover, the beneficial effect of Be was found to be more in the samples containing higher amounts of bifilms. For instance, in the heat-treated condition, Be increased the Weibull modulus of the non-agitated and surface-agitated samples by 4 and 94 pct, respectively. This improvement can be attributed to the strengthening effect of Be on the young surface oxides so that they resist more against rupture when melt is subjected to the surface turbulence. The reduced pressure test and fractography investigations also confirmed the reduction of bifilm density and bifilm-related defects in Be-modified samples.

Quadratic RK shooting solution for a environmental parameter prediction boundary value problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Famelis, Ioannis Th.; Tsitouras, Ch.

2014-10-01

Using tools of Information Geometry, the minimum distance between two elements of a statistical manifold is defined by the corresponding geodesic, e.g. the minimum length curve that connects them. Such a curve, where the probability distribution functions in the case of our meteorological data are two parameter Weibull distributions, satisfies a 2nd order Boundary Value (BV) system. We study the numerical treatment of the resulting special quadratic form system using Shooting method. We compare the solutions of the problem when we employ a classical Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge Kutta (SDIRK) 4(3) pair of methods and a quadratic SDIRK 5(3) pair . Both pairs have the same computational costs whereas the second one attains higher order as it is specially constructed for quadratic problems.

Transmission overhaul estimates for partial and full replacement at repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Lewicki, D. G.

1991-01-01

Timely transmission overhauls increase in-flight service reliability greater than the calculated design reliabilities of the individual aircraft transmission components. Although necessary for aircraft safety, transmission overhauls contribute significantly to aircraft expense. Predictions of a transmission's maintenance needs at the design stage should enable the development of more cost effective and reliable transmissions in the future. The frequency is estimated of overhaul along with the number of transmissions or components needed to support the overhaul schedule. Two methods based on the two parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life are used to estimate the time between transmission overhauls. These methods predict transmission lives for maintenance schedules which repair the transmission with a complete system replacement or repair only failed components of the transmission. An example illustrates the methods.

A New Femtosecond Laser-Based Three-Dimensional Tomography Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echlin, McLean P.

2011-12-01

Tomographic imaging has dramatically changed science, most notably in the fields of medicine and biology, by producing 3D views of structures which are too complex to understand in any other way. Current tomographic techniques require extensive time both for post-processing and data collection. Femtosecond laser based tomographic techniques have been developed in both standard atmosphere (femtosecond laser-based serial sectioning technique - FSLSS) and in vacuum (Tri-Beam System) for the fast collection (10 5mum3/s) of mm3 sized 3D datasets. Both techniques use femtosecond laser pulses to selectively remove layer-by-layer areas of material with low collateral damage and a negligible heat affected zone. To the authors knowledge, femtosecond lasers have never been used to serial section and these techniques have been entirely and uniquely developed by the author and his collaborators at the University of Michigan and University of California Santa Barbara. The FSLSS was applied to measure the 3D distribution of TiN particles in a 4330 steel. Single pulse ablation morphologies and rates were measured and collected from literature. Simultaneous two-phase ablation of TiN and steel matrix was shown to occur at fluences of 0.9-2 J/cm2. Laser scanning protocols were developed minimizing surface roughness to 0.1-0.4 mum for laser-based sectioning. The FSLSS technique was used to section and 3D reconstruct titanium nitride (TiN) containing 4330 steel. Statistical analysis of 3D TiN particle sizes, distribution parameters, and particle density were measured. A methodology was developed to use the 3D datasets to produce statistical volume elements (SVEs) for toughness modeling. Six FSLSS TiN datasets were sub-sampled into 48 SVEs for statistical analysis and toughness modeling using the Rice-Tracey and Garrison-Moody models. A two-parameter Weibull analysis was performed and variability in the toughness data agreed well with Ruggieri et al. bulk toughness measurements. The Tri-Beam system combines the benefits of laser based material removal (speed, low-damage, automated) with detectors that collect chemical, structural, and topological information. Multi-modal sectioning information was collected after many laser scanning passes demonstrating the capability of the Tri-Beam system.

A Monte Carlo Risk Analysis of Life Cycle Cost Prediction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

process which occurs with each FLU failure. With this in mind there is no alternative other than the binomial distribution. 24 GOR/SM/75D-6 With all of...Weibull distribution of failures as selected by user. For each failure of the ith FLU, the model then samples from the binomial distribution to deter- mine...which is sampled from the binomial . Neither of the two conditions for normality are met, i.e., that RTS Ie close to .5 and the number of samples close

Does artificial aging affect mechanical properties of CAD/CAM composite materials.

PubMed

Egilmez, Ferhan; Ergun, Gulfem; Cekic-Nagas, Isil; Vallittu, Pekka K; Lassila, Lippo V J

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the flexural strength and Weibull characteristics of different CAD/CAM materials after different in vitro aging conditions. The specimens were randomly assigned to one of the six in vitro aging conditions: (1) water storage (37°C, 3 weeks), (2) boiling water (24h), (3) hydrochloric acid exposure (pH: 1.2, 24h), (4) autoclave treatment (134°C, 200kPa, 12h), (5) thermal cycling (5000 times, 5-55°C), (6) cyclic loading (100N, 50,000 cycles). No treatment was applied to the specimens in control group. Three-point bending test was used for the calculation of flexural strength. The reliability of the strength was assessed by Weibull distribution. Surface roughness and topography was examined by coherence scanning interferometry. Evaluated parameters were compared using the Kruskall-Wallis or Mann-Whitney U test. Water storage, autoclave treatment and thermal cycling significantly decreased the flexural strength of all materials (p<0.05), whereas HCl exposure or cyclic loading did not affect the properties (p>0.05). Weibull moduli of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate were similar with control. Vita Enamic ® exhibited similar Weibull moduli in all aging groups except the HCl treated group (p>0.05). R a values of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate were in the range of 0.053-0.088μm in the aged groups. However R a results of Vita Enamic ® were larger than 0.2μm. Flexural strength of newly developed restorative CAD/CAM materials was significantly decreased by artificial aging. Cyclic loading or HCl exposure does not affect to the flexural strength and structural reliability of Cerasmart™ and Lava™ Ultimate. Copyright © 2017 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fractional differential equations based modeling of microbial survival and growth curves: model development and experimental validation.

PubMed

Kaur, A; Takhar, P S; Smith, D M; Mann, J E; Brashears, M M

2008-10-01

A fractional differential equations (FDEs)-based theory involving 1- and 2-term equations was developed to predict the nonlinear survival and growth curves of foodborne pathogens. It is interesting to note that the solution of 1-term FDE leads to the Weibull model. Nonlinear regression (Gauss-Newton method) was performed to calculate the parameters of the 1-term and 2-term FDEs. The experimental inactivation data of Salmonella cocktail in ground turkey breast, ground turkey thigh, and pork shoulder; and cocktail of Salmonella, E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes in ground beef exposed at isothermal cooking conditions of 50 to 66 degrees C were used for validation. To evaluate the performance of 2-term FDE in predicting the growth curves-growth of Salmonella typhimurium, Salmonella Enteritidis, and background flora in ground pork and boneless pork chops; and E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef in the temperature range of 22.2 to 4.4 degrees C were chosen. A program was written in Matlab to predict the model parameters and survival and growth curves. Two-term FDE was more successful in describing the complex shapes of microbial survival and growth curves as compared to the linear and Weibull models. Predicted curves of 2-term FDE had higher magnitudes of R(2) (0.89 to 0.99) and lower magnitudes of root mean square error (0.0182 to 0.5461) for all experimental cases in comparison to the linear and Weibull models. This model was capable of predicting the tails in survival curves, which was not possible using Weibull and linear models. The developed model can be used for other foodborne pathogens in a variety of food products to study the destruction and growth behavior.

Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion.

PubMed

Nazif-Muñoz, José Ignacio

2015-01-01

The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975. In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957-2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out. Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption. Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.

[Analysis of Time-to-onset of Interstitial Lung Disease after the Administration of Small Molecule Molecularly-targeted Drugs].

PubMed

Komada, Fusao

2018-01-01

　The aim of this study was to investigate the time-to-onset of drug-induced interstitial lung disease (DILD) following the administration of small molecule molecularly-targeted drugs via the use of the spontaneous adverse reaction reporting system of the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report database. DILD datasets for afatinib, alectinib, bortezomib, crizotinib, dasatinib, erlotinib, everolimus, gefitinib, imatinib, lapatinib, nilotinib, osimertinib, sorafenib, sunitinib, temsirolimus, and tofacitinib were used to calculate the median onset times of DILD and the Weibull distribution parameters, and to perform the hierarchical cluster analysis. The median onset times of DILD for afatinib, bortezomib, crizotinib, erlotinib, gefitinib, and nilotinib were within one month. The median onset times of DILD for dasatinib, everolimus, lapatinib, osimertinib, and temsirolimus ranged from 1 to 2 months. The median onset times of the DILD for alectinib, imatinib, and tofacitinib ranged from 2 to 3 months. The median onset times of the DILD for sunitinib and sorafenib ranged from 8 to 9 months. Weibull distributions for these drugs when using the cluster analysis showed that there were 4 clusters. Cluster 1 described a subgroup with early to later onset DILD and early failure type profiles or a random failure type profile. Cluster 2 exhibited early failure type profiles or a random failure type profile with early onset DILD. Cluster 3 exhibited a random failure type profile or wear out failure type profiles with later onset DILD. Cluster 4 exhibited an early failure type profile or a random failure type profile with the latest onset DILD.

Comparison between a Weibull proportional hazards model and a linear model for predicting the genetic merit of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity.

PubMed

Caraviello, D Z; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D

2004-05-01

Predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) of US Jersey sires for daughter longevity were calculated using a Weibull proportional hazards sire model and compared with predictions from a conventional linear animal model. Culling data from 268,008 Jersey cows with first calving from 1981 to 2000 were used. The proportional hazards model included time-dependent effects of herd-year-season contemporary group and parity by stage of lactation interaction, as well as time-independent effects of sire and age at first calving. Sire variances and parameters of the Weibull distribution were estimated, providing heritability estimates of 4.7% on the log scale and 18.0% on the original scale. The PTA of each sire was expressed as the expected risk of culling relative to daughters of an average sire. Risk ratios (RR) ranged from 0.7 to 1.3, indicating that the risk of culling for daughters of the best sires was 30% lower than for daughters of average sires and nearly 50% lower than than for daughters of the poorest sires. Sire PTA from the proportional hazards model were compared with PTA from a linear model similar to that used for routine national genetic evaluation of length of productive life (PL) using cross-validation in independent samples of herds. Models were compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to second, third, fourth, or fifth lactation on their sires' PTA values, with alternative approaches for weighting the contribution of each sire. Models were also compared using logistic regression of daughters' stayability to 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 mo of life. The proportional hazards model generally yielded more accurate predictions according to these criteria, but differences in predictive ability between methods were smaller when using a Kullback-Leibler distance than with other approaches. Results of this study suggest that survival analysis methodology may provide more accurate predictions of genetic merit for longevity than conventional linear models.

Fatigue Behavior of Crystalline-Reinforced Glass-Ceramics.

PubMed

Vicari, Carolina Barbosa; Magalhães, Bárbara de Oliveira; Griggs, Jason Alan; Borba, Márcia

2018-01-03

To evaluate the fatigue behavior of two crystalline-reinforced ceramics: leucite-reinforced (VL) and lithium disilicate-based (VD) glass-ceramics. Bar-shaped specimens (16 × 4 × 1.2 mm) were produced for each ceramic using prefabricated CAD/CAM blocks. For each group, 30 specimens were subjected to a three-point flexural strength test in a universal testing machine. For VL and VD, 36 and 41 specimens were subjected to a cyclic fatigue test, respectively. The cyclic fatigue test was performed with a pneumatic mechanical cycling machine (1 Hz; 37°C distilled water). Specimens were tested at two stress levels for each preset lifetime (10 3 and 10 4 cycles for VL; 10 4 and 10 5 cycles for VD) following the boundary technique. Fractography was performed with a scanning electron microscope. Data were analyzed with Weibull analysis. There were significant differences among groups for characteristic strength (σ 0 ) and Weibull modulus (m), as the confidence intervals did not overlap. The VD group presented the highest values of σ 0 , but the lowest Weibull modulus. Both groups showed a reduction of approximately 60% of the initial flexural strength (σ f ) after cycling for 10 4 cycles. For VD tested in fatigue, there was no degradation of σ f when the number of cycles was increased from 10 4 to 10 5 . The VL group showed an 18% decrease in σ f when the number of cycles increased from 10 3 to 10 4 . Flexural strength values estimated for a 5% probability of failure were 36 MPa for VL and 55 MPa for VD, after 10 4 cycles. Both glass-ceramics showed similar strength degradation (60%) after a lifetime of 10 4 cycles, despite their distinct mechanical properties. Mechanical cycling in humid conditions proved to be an important factor for the degradation of the mechanical properties of crystalline-reinforced glass-ceramics. © 2018 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1991-01-01

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Application of the Weibull extrapolation to 137Cs geochronology in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan.

PubMed

Lu, Xueqiang

2004-01-01

Considerable doubt surrounds the nature of processes by which 137Cs is deposited in marine sediments, leading to a situation where 137Cs geochronology cannot be always applied suitably. Based on extrapolation with Weibull distribution, the maximum concentration of 137Cs derived from asymptotic values for cumulative specific inventory was used to re-establish 137Cs geochronology, instead of original 137Cs profiles. Corresponding dating results for cores in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay, Japan, by means of this new method, are in much closer agreement with those calculated from 210Pb method than the previous method.

Weibull models of fracture strengths and fatigue behavior of dental resins in flexure and shear.

PubMed

Baran, G R; McCool, J I; Paul, D; Boberick, K; Wunder, S

1998-01-01

In estimating lifetimes of dental restorative materials, it is useful to have available data on the fatigue behavior of these materials. Current efforts at estimation include several untested assumptions related to the equivalence of flaw distributions sampled by shear, tensile, and compressive stresses. Environmental influences on material properties are not accounted for, and it is unclear if fatigue limits exist. In this study, the shear and flexural strengths of three resins used as matrices in dental restorative composite materials were characterized by Weibull parameters. It was found that shear strengths were lower than flexural strengths, liquid sorption had a profound effect on characteristic strengths, and the Weibull shape parameter obtained from shear data differed for some materials from that obtained in flexure. In shear and flexural fatigue, a power law relationship applied for up to 250,000 cycles; no fatigue limits were found, and the data thus imply only one flaw population is responsible for failure. Again, liquid sorption adversely affected strength levels in most materials (decreasing shear strengths and flexural strengths by factors of 2-3) and to a greater extent than did the degree of cure or material chemistry.

Estimating Age Distributions of Base Flow in Watersheds Underlain by Single and Dual Porosity Formations Using Groundwater Transport Simulation and Weighted Weibull Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, W. E.

2015-12-01

Age distributions of base flow to streams are important to estimate for predicting the timing of water-quality responses to changes in distributed inputs of nutrients or pollutants at the land surface. Simple models of shallow aquifers will predict exponential age distributions, but more realistic 3-D stream-aquifer geometries will cause deviations from an exponential curve. In addition, in fractured rock terrains the dual nature of the effective and total porosity of the system complicates the age distribution further. In this study shallow groundwater flow and advective transport were simulated in two regions in the Eastern United States—the Delmarva Peninsula and the upper Potomac River basin. The former is underlain by layers of unconsolidated sediment, while the latter consists of folded and fractured sedimentary rocks. Transport of groundwater to streams was simulated using the USGS code MODPATH within 175 and 275 watersheds, respectively. For the fractured rock terrain, calculations were also performed along flow pathlines to account for exchange between mobile and immobile flow zones. Porosities at both sites were calibrated using environmental tracer data (3H, 3He, CFCs and SF6) in wells and springs, and with a 30-year tritium record from the Potomac River. Carbonate and siliciclastic rocks were calibrated to have mobile porosity values of one and six percent, and immobile porosity values of 18 and 12 percent, respectively. The age distributions were fitted to Weibull functions. Whereas an exponential function has one parameter that controls the median age of the distribution, a Weibull function has an extra parameter that controls the slope of the curve. A weighted Weibull function was also developed that potentially allows for four parameters, two that control the median age and two that control the slope, one of each weighted toward early or late arrival times. For both systems the two-parameter Weibull function nearly always produced a substantially better fit to the data than the one-parameter exponential function. For the single porosity system it was found that the use of three parameters was often optimal for accurately describing the base-flow age distribution, whereas for the dual porosity system the fourth parameter was often required to fit the more complicated response curves.

Analysis of the progressive failure of brittle matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, David J.

1995-01-01

This report investigates two of the most common modes of localized failures, namely, periodic fiber-bridged matrix cracks and transverse matrix cracks. A modification of Daniels' bundle theory is combined with Weibull's weakest link theory to model the statistical distribution of the periodic matrix cracking strength for an individual layer. Results of the model predictions are compared with experimental data from the open literature. Extensions to the model are made to account for possible imperfections within the layer (i.e., nonuniform fiber lengths, irregular crack spacing, and degraded in-situ fiber properties), and the results of these studies are presented. A generalized shear-lag analysis is derived which is capable of modeling the development of transverse matrix cracks in material systems having a general multilayer configuration and under states of full in-plane load. A method for computing the effective elastic properties for the damaged layer at the global level is detailed based upon the solution for the effects of the damage at the local level. This methodology is general in nature and is therefore also applicable to (0(sub m)/90(sub n))(sub s) systems. The characteristic stress-strain response for more general cases is shown to be qualitatively correct (experimental data is not available for a quantitative evaluation), and the damage evolution is recorded in terms of the matrix crack density as a function of the applied strain. Probabilistic effects are introduced to account for the statistical nature of the material strengths, thus allowing cumulative distribution curves for the probability of failure to be generated for each of the example laminates. Additionally, Oh and Finney's classic work on fracture location in brittle materials is extended and combined with the shear-lag analysis. The result is an analytical form for predicting the probability density function for the location of the next transverse crack occurrence within a crack bounded region. The results of this study verified qualitatively the validity of assuming a uniform crack spacing (as was done in the shear-lag model).

Comparing and combining biomarkers as principle surrogates for time-to-event clinical endpoints.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Gilbert, Peter B

2015-02-10

Principal surrogate endpoints are useful as targets for phase I and II trials. In many recent trials, multiple post-randomization biomarkers are measured. However, few statistical methods exist for comparison of or combination of biomarkers as principal surrogates, and none of these methods to our knowledge utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information. We propose a Weibull model extension of the semi-parametric estimated maximum likelihood method that allows for the inclusion of multiple biomarkers in the same risk model as multivariate candidate principal surrogates. We propose several methods for comparing candidate principal surrogates and evaluating multivariate principal surrogates. These include the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent true and false positive fraction, the time-dependent and the integrated standardized total gain, and the cumulative distribution function of the risk difference. We illustrate the operating characteristics of our proposed methods in simulations and outline how these statistics can be used to evaluate and compare candidate principal surrogates. We use these methods to investigate candidate surrogates in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Scale-dependent measurements of meteorite strength: Implications for asteroid fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotto-Figueroa, Desireé; Asphaug, Erik; Garvie, Laurence A. J.; Rai, Ashwin; Johnston, Joel; Borkowski, Luke; Datta, Siddhant; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Morris, Melissa A.

2016-10-01

Measuring the strengths of asteroidal materials is important for developing mitigation strategies for potential Earth impactors and for understanding properties of in situ materials on asteroids during human and robotic exploration. Studies of asteroid disruption and fragmentation have typically used the strengths determined from terrestrial analog materials, although questions have been raised regarding the suitability of these materials. The few published measurements of meteorite strength are typically significantly greater than those estimated from the stratospheric breakup of meter-sized meteoroids. Given the paucity of relevant strength data, the scale-varying strength properties of meteoritic and asteroidal materials are poorly constrained. Based on our uniaxial failure studies of centimeter-sized cubes of a carbonaceous and ordinary chondrite, we develop the first Weibull failure distribution analysis of meteorites. This Weibull distribution projected to meter scales, overlaps the strengths determined from asteroidal airbursts and can be used to predict properties of to the 100 m scale. In addition, our analysis shows that meter-scale boulders on asteroids are significantly weaker than small pieces of meteorites, while large meteorites surviving on Earth are selected by attrition. Further, the common use of terrestrial analog materials to predict scale-dependent strength properties significantly overestimates the strength of meter-sized asteroidal materials and therefore is unlikely well suited for the modeling of asteroid disruption and fragmentation. Given the strength scale-dependence determined for carbonaceous and ordinary chondrite meteorites, our results suggest that boulders of similar composition on asteroids will have compressive strengths significantly less than typical terrestrial rocks.

Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2012-12-20

Simulations and Monte Carlo methods serve an important role in modern statistical research. They allow for an examination of the performance of statistical procedures in settings in which analytic and mathematical derivations may not be feasible. A key element in any statistical simulation is the existence of an appropriate data-generating process: one must be able to simulate data from a specified statistical model. We describe data-generating processes for the Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariates when event times follow an exponential, Weibull, or Gompertz distribution. We consider three types of time-varying covariates: first, a dichotomous time-varying covariate that can change at most once from untreated to treated (e.g., organ transplant); second, a continuous time-varying covariate such as cumulative exposure at a constant dose to radiation or to a pharmaceutical agent used for a chronic condition; third, a dichotomous time-varying covariate with a subject being able to move repeatedly between treatment states (e.g., current compliance or use of a medication). In each setting, we derive closed-form expressions that allow one to simulate survival times so that survival times are related to a vector of fixed or time-invariant covariates and to a single time-varying covariate. We illustrate the utility of our closed-form expressions for simulating event times by using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power to detect as statistically significant the effect of different types of binary time-varying covariates. This is compared with the statistical power to detect as statistically significant a binary time-invariant covariate. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solar F10.7 radiation - A short term model for Space Station applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vedder, John D.; Tabor, Jill L.

1991-01-01

A new method is described for statistically modeling the F10.7 component of solar radiation for 91-day intervals. The resulting model represents this component of the solar flux as a quasi-exponentially correlated, Weibull distributed random variable, and thereby demonstrates excellent agreement with observed F10.7 data. Values of the F10.7 flux are widely used in models of the earth's upper atmosphere because of its high correlation with density fluctuations due to solar heating effects. Because of the direct relation between atmospheric density and drag, a realistic model of the short term fluctuation of the F10.7 flux is important for the design and operation of Space Station Freedom. The method of modeling this flux described in this report should therefore be useful for a variety of Space Station applications.

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SEMICONDUCTOR INJECTION LASERS SELCO-87: Degradation phenomena in laser diodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beister, G.; Krispin, P.; Maege, J.; Richter, G.; Weber, H.; Rechenberg, I.

1988-11-01

Accelerated tests on GaAlAs/GaAs double heterostructure laser diodes showed, in agreement with earlier results on light-emitting diodes, that ageing appeared in three distinct forms: initial and slow degradation stages, both obeying a logarithmic time dependence, and a superimposed "gradation" (enhancement of the output power). Measurements made by the method of deep level transient spectroscopy during the accelerated tests on these lasers, operated as light-emitting diodes, revealed the appearance right from the beginning of B levels attributed to the antisite GaAs defects. The B levels appeared again in diodes tested in the lasing mode. In the case of a group of 21 laser diodes the mean time-to-failure was 9000 h at 70°C for 5 mW (in accordance with the Weibull statistics of degradation rates).

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Harry C.; Fang, Ho T.

1991-01-01

The results of a four year program to improve the strength and reliability of injection-molded silicon nitride are summarized. Statistically designed processing experiments were performed to identify and optimize critical processing parameters and compositions. Process improvements were monitored by strength testing at room and elevated temperatures, and microstructural characterization by optical, scanning electron microscopes, and scanning transmission electron microscope. Processing modifications resulted in a 20 percent strength and 72 percent Weibull slope improvement of the baseline material. Additional sintering aids screening and optimization experiments succeeded in developing a new composition (GN-10) capable of 581.2 MPa at 1399 C. A SiC whisker toughened composite using this material as a matrix achieved a room temperature toughness of 6.9 MPa m(exp .5) by the Chevron notched bar technique. Exploratory experiments were conducted on injection molding of turbocharger rotors.

Damage and strength of composite materials: Trends, predictions, and challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, T. Kevin

1994-01-01

Research on damage mechanisms and ultimate strength of composite materials relevant to scaling issues will be addressed in this viewgraph presentation. The use of fracture mechanics and Weibull statistics to predict scaling effects for the onset of isolated damage mechanisms will be highlighted. The ability of simple fracture mechanics models to predict trends that are useful in parametric or preliminary designs studies will be reviewed. The limitations of these simple models for complex loading conditions will also be noted. The difficulty in developing generic criteria for the growth of these mechanisms needed in progressive damage models to predict strength will be addressed. A specific example for a problem where failure is a direct consequence of progressive delamination will be explored. A damage threshold/fail-safety concept for addressing composite damage tolerance will be discussed.

Porosity Assessment for Different Diameters of Coir Lignocellulosic Fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Luz, Fernanda Santos; Paciornik, Sidnei; Monteiro, Sergio Neves; da Silva, Luiz Carlos; Tommasini, Flávio James; Candido, Verônica Scarpini

2017-10-01

The application of natural lignocellulosic fibers (LCFs) in engineering composites has increased interest in their properties and structural characteristics. In particular, the inherent porosity of an LCF markedly affects its density and the adhesion to polymer matrices. For the first time, both open and closed porosities of a natural LCF, for different diameter ranges, were assessed. Fibers extracted from the mesocarp of the coconut fruit were investigated by nondestructive methods of density measurements and x-ray microtomography (microCT). It was found that, for all diameter ranges, the closed porosity is significantly higher than the open porosity. The total porosity increases with diameter to around 60% for coir fibers with more than 503 μm in diameter. The amount and characteristics of these open and closed porosities were revealed by t test and Weibull statistics as well as by microCT.

Gravitational Effects on Closed-Cellular-Foam Microstructure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noever, David A.; Cronise, Raymond J.; Wessling, Francis C.; McMannus, Samuel P.; Mathews, John; Patel, Darayas

1996-01-01

Polyurethane foam has been produced in low gravity for the first time. The cause and distribution of different void or pore sizes are elucidated from direct comparison of unit-gravity and low-gravity samples. Low gravity is found to increase the pore roundness by 17% and reduce the void size by 50%. The standard deviation for pores becomes narrower (a more homogeneous foam is produced) in low gravity. Both a Gaussian and a Weibull model fail to describe the statistical distribution of void areas, and hence the governing dynamics do not combine small voids in either a uniform or a dependent fashion to make larger voids. Instead, the void areas follow an exponential law, which effectively randomizes the production of void sizes in a nondependent fashion consistent more with single nucleation than with multiple or combining events.

Zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® roadmap for advanced lithography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhoff, Thomas; Jedamzik, Ralf; Hartmann, Peter

2013-04-01

The zero expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® is a well-established material in microlithography in critical components as wafer- and reticle-stages, mirrors and frames in the stepper positioning and alignment system. The very low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and its extremely high CTE homogeneity are key properties to achieve the tight overlay requirements of advanced lithography processes. SCHOTT is continuously improving critical material properties of ZERODUR® essential for microlithography applications according to a roadmap driven by the ever tighter material specifications broken down from the customer roadmaps. This paper will present the SCHOTT Roadmap for ZERODUR® material property development. In the recent years SCHOTT established a physical model based on structural relaxation to describe the coefficient of thermal expansion's temperature dependence. The model is successfully applied for the new expansion grade ZERODUR® TAILORED introduced to the market in 2012. ZERODUR® TAILORED delivers the lowest thermal expansion of ZERODUR® products at microlithography tool application temperature allowing for higher thermal stability for tighter overlay control in IC production. Data will be reported demonstrating the unique CTE homogeneity of ZERODUR® and its very high reproducibility, a necessary precondition for serial production for microlithography equipment components. New data on the bending strength of ZERODUR® proves its capability to withstand much higher mechanical loads than previously reported. Utilizing a three parameter Weibull distribution it is possible to derive minimum strength values for a given ZERODUR® surface treatment. Consequently the statistical uncertainties of the earlier approach based on a two parameter Weibull distribution have been eliminated. Mechanical fatigue due to stress corrosion was included in a straightforward way. The derived formulae allows calculating life time of ZERODUR® components for a given stress load or the allowable maximum stress for a minimum required life time.

The effect of surface grinding and sandblasting on flexural strength and reliability of Y-TZP zirconia ceramic.

PubMed

Kosmac, T; Oblak, C; Jevnikar, P; Funduk, N; Marion, L

1999-11-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of grinding and sandblasting on the microstructure, biaxial flexural strength and reliability of two yttria stabilized tetragonal zirconia (Y-TZP) ceramics. Two Y-TZP powders were used to produce fine grained and coarse grained microstructures. Sixty discs from each material were randomly divided into six groups of ten. For each group, a different surface treatment was applied: dry grinding, wet grinding, sandblasting, dry grinding + sandblasting, sandblasting + dry grinding and a control group. Biaxial flexural strength was determined and data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA, followed by Tukey's HSD test (p < 0.05). In addition, Weibull statistics was used to analyze the variability of flexural strength. The relative amount of transformed monoclinic zirconia, corresponding transformed zone depth (TZD) and the mean critical defect size Ccr were calculated. There was no difference in mean strength between the as sintered fine and coarse grained Y-TZP. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were found between the control group and ground fine grained material for both wet and dry grinding. Sandblasting significantly increased the strength in fine and coarse grained materials. All surface treatment procedures reduced the Weibull modulus of Y-TZP. For both materials, the highest amount of the monoclinic phase and the largest TZD was found after sandblasting. Lower amounts of the monoclinic phase were obtained after both grinding procedures, where the highest mean critical defect size Ccr was also calculated. Our results indicate that sandblasting may provide a powerful technique for strengthening Y-TZP in clinical practice. In contrast, grinding may lead to substantial strength degradation and reduced reliability of prefabricated zirconia elements, therefore, sandblasting of ground surfaces is suggested.

A new statistical time-dependent model of earthquake occurrence: failure processes driven by a self-correcting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotondi, Renata; Varini, Elisa

2016-04-01

The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing hazard functions) are more appropriate. Short-term models mainly fit earthquake clusters due to the tendency of an earthquake to trigger other earthquakes; in this case, self-exciting point processes with non-increasing hazard are especially suitable. In order to provide a unified framework for analyzing earthquake catalogs, Schoenberg and Bolt proposed the SELC (Short-term Exciting Long-term Correcting) model (BSSA, 2000) and Varini employed a state-space model for estimating the different phases of a seismic cycle (PhD Thesis, 2005). Both attempts are combinations of long- and short-term models, but results are not completely satisfactory, due to the different scales at which these models appear to operate. In this study, we split a seismic sequence in two groups: the leader events, whose magnitude exceeds a threshold magnitude, and the remaining ones considered as subordinate events. The leader events are assumed to follow a well-known self-correcting point process named stress release model (Vere-Jones, J. Phys. Earth, 1978; Bebbington & Harte, GJI, 2003, Varini & Rotondi, Env. Ecol. Stat., 2015). In the interval between two subsequent leader events, subordinate events are expected to cluster at the beginning (aftershocks) and at the end (foreshocks) of that interval; hence, they are modeled by a failure processes that allows bathtub-shaped hazard function. In particular, we have examined the generalized Weibull distributions, a large family that contains distributions with different bathtub-shaped hazard as well as the standard Weibull distribution (Lai, Springer, 2014). The model is fitted to a dataset of Italian historical earthquakes and the results of Bayesian inference are shown.

Estimation of renal allograft half-life: fact or fiction?

PubMed

Azancot, M Antonieta; Cantarell, Carme; Perelló, Manel; Torres, Irina B; Serón, Daniel; Seron, Daniel; Moreso, Francesc; Arias, Manuel; Campistol, Josep M; Curto, Jordi; Hernandez, Domingo; Morales, José M; Sanchez-Fructuoso, Ana; Abraira, Victor

2011-09-01

Renal allograft half-life time (t½) is the most straightforward representation of long-term graft survival. Since some statistical models overestimate this parameter, we compare different approaches to evaluate t½. Patients with a 1-year functioning graft transplanted in Spain during 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002 were included. Exponential, Weibull, gamma, lognormal and log-logistic models censoring the last year of follow-up were evaluated. The goodness of fit of these models was evaluated according to the Cox-Snell residuals and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) was employed to compare these models. We included 4842 patients. Real t½ in 1990 was 14.2 years. Median t½ (95% confidence interval) in 1990 and 2002 was 15.8 (14.2-17.5) versus 52.6 (35.6-69.5) according to the exponential model (P < 0.001). No differences between 1990 and 2002 were observed when t½ was estimated with the other models. In 1990 and 2002, t½ was 14.0 (13.1-15.0) versus 18.0 (13.7-22.4) according to Weibull, 15.5 (13.9-17.1) versus 19.1 (15.6-22.6) according to gamma, 14.4 (13.3-15.6) versus 18.3 (14.2-22.3) according to the log-logistic and 15.2 (13.8-16.6) versus 18.8 (15.3-22.3) according to the lognormal models. The AIC confirmed that the exponential model had the lowest goodness of fit, while the other models yielded a similar result. The exponential model overestimates t½, especially in cohorts of patients with a short follow-up, while any of the other studied models allow a better estimation even in cohorts with short follow-up.

ZERODUR®: new stress corrosion data improve strength fatigue prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Peter; Kleer, Günter; Rist, Tobias

2015-09-01

The extremely low thermal expansion glass ceramic ZERODUR® finds more and more applications as sophisticated light weight structures with thin ribs or as thin shells. Quite often they will be subject to higher mechanical loads such as rocket launches or modulating wobbling vibrations. Designing such structures requires calculation methods and data taking into account their long term fatigue. With brittle materials fatigue is not only given by the material itself but to a high extent also by its surface condition and the environmental media especially humidity. This work extends the latest data and information gathered on the bending strength of ZERODUR® with new results concerning its long term behavior under tensile stress. The parameter needed for prediction calculations which combines the influences of time and environmental media is the stress corrosion constant n. Results of the past differ significantly from each other. In order to obtain consistent data the stress corrosion constant has been measured with the method comparing the breakage statistical distributions at different stress increase rates. For better significance the stress increase rate was varied over four orders of magnitude from 0.004 MPa/s to 40 MPa/s. Experiments were performed under normal humidity for long term earth bound applications and under nitrogen atmosphere as equivalent to dry environment occurring for example with telescopes in deserts and also equivalent to vacuum for space applications. As shown earlier the bending strength of diamond ground surfaces of ZERODUR® can be represented with a three parameter Weibull distribution. Predictions on the long term strength change of ZERODUR® structures under tensile stress are possible with reduced uncertainty if Weibull threshold strength values are considered and more reliable stress corrosion constant data are applied.

A Multiscale Progressive Failure Modeling Methodology for Composites that Includes Fiber Strength Stochastics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.; Hutchins, John W.

2014-01-01

A multiscale modeling methodology was developed for continuous fiber composites that incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled multiscale micromechanics/finite element (FE) analyses. A modified two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function, which accounts for the effect of fiber length on the probability of failure, was used to characterize the statistical distribution of fiber strengths. A parametric study using the NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) was performed to assess the effect of variable fiber strengths on local composite failure within a repeating unit cell (RUC) and subsequent global failure. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a unidirectional SCS-6/TIMETAL 21S metal matrix composite tensile dogbone specimen at 650 degC. Multiscale progressive failure analyses were performed to quantify the effect of spatially varying fiber strengths on the RUC-averaged and global stress-strain responses and failure. The ultimate composite strengths and distribution of failure locations (predominately within the gage section) reasonably matched the experimentally observed failure behavior. The predicted composite failure behavior suggests that use of macroscale models that exploit global geometric symmetries are inappropriate for cases where the actual distribution of local fiber strengths displays no such symmetries. This issue has not received much attention in the literature. Moreover, the model discretization at a specific length scale can have a profound effect on the computational costs associated with multiscale simulations.models that yield accurate yet tractable results.

Distribution analysis of airborne nicotine concentrations in hospitality facilities.

PubMed

Schorp, Matthias K; Leyden, Donald E

2002-02-01

A number of publications report statistical summaries for environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) concentrations. Despite compelling evidence for the data not being normally distributed, these publications typically report the arithmetic mean and standard deviation of the data, thereby losing important information related to the distribution of values contained in the original data. We were interested in the frequency distributions of reported nicotine concentrations in hospitality environments and subjected available data to distribution analyses. The distribution of experimental indoor airborne nicotine concentration data taken from hospitality facilities worldwide was fit to lognormal, Weibull, exponential, Pearson (Type V), logistic, and loglogistic distribution models. Comparison of goodness of fit (GOF) parameters and indications from the literature verified the selection of a lognormal distribution as the overall best model. When individual data were not reported in the literature, statistical summaries of results were used to model sets of lognormally distributed data that are intended to mimic the original data distribution. Grouping the data into various categories led to 31 frequency distributions that were further interpreted. The median values in nonsmoking environments are about half of the median values in smoking sections. When different continents are compared, Asian, European, and North American median values in restaurants are about a factor of three below levels encountered in other hospitality facilities. On a comparison of nicotine concentrations in North American smoking sections and nonsmoking sections, median values are about one-third of the European levels. The results obtained may be used to address issues related to exposure to ETS in the hospitality sector.

Effect of Endocrown Restorations with Different CAD/CAM Materials: 3D Finite Element and Weibull Analyses

PubMed Central

Ulusoy, Nuran

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of two endocrown designs and computer aided design/manufacturing (CAD/CAM) materials on stress distribution and failure probability of restorations applied to severely damaged endodontically treated maxillary first premolar tooth (MFP). Two types of designs without and with 3 mm intraradicular extensions, endocrown (E) and modified endocrown (ME), were modeled on a 3D Finite element (FE) model of the MFP. Vitablocks Mark II (VMII), Vita Enamic (VE), and Lava Ultimate (LU) CAD/CAM materials were used for each type of design. von Mises and maximum principle values were evaluated and the Weibull function was incorporated with FE analysis to calculate the long term failure probability. Regarding the stresses that occurred in enamel, for each group of material, ME restoration design transmitted less stress than endocrown. During normal occlusal function, the overall failure probability was minimum for ME with VMII. ME restoration design with VE was the best restorative option for premolar teeth with extensive loss of coronal structure under high occlusal loads. Therefore, ME design could be a favorable treatment option for MFPs with missing palatal cusp. Among the CAD/CAM materials tested, VMII and VE were found to be more tooth-friendly than LU. PMID:29119108

Brittle Materials Design, High Temperature Gas Turbine

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-09-01

Fabrication 4.2 Rotor Blade Development 4.2.1 WISEC Rotor Blade Analysis Page No. i 11 ill i v v xiii 1 11 11 13 14 15 15 17 32 42 55...in Examples of commonly observed flaws *" ™tor t^ade g ^ ■7 ~,n „„i i ?i Rnth entrapped gas voids and siiii-iiNis^ v ^x rr...aluminas C11-’ has indicated that 40 or more samples are necessary to determine the Weibull material constants m and a . V Future spin testing

A Two-Stage Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Design Optimization Study and Life Cycle Cost Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-01

discussed in more depth in Chapter 4 and Appendix B. Advanced liners with an estimated service life of up to 35 years (94) are being investigated now for the...Minuteman life - extension program. In fact, independent research is already underway for a replacement system, the Advanced Inertial Measurement System... Al = - T and n(n + 1) 7-2 Solving for n and r gives *= All, (D. ) 01(2 - Al2) and MI’= W2 (D.2) For the Weibull pdf . P () );-) .exp[-(t/O)•] the first

Life and reliability modeling of bevel gear reductions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Brikmanis, C. K.; Lewicki, D. G.; Coy, J. J.

1985-01-01

A reliability model is presented for bevel gear reductions with either a single input pinion or dual input pinions of equal size. The dual pinions may or may not have the same power applied for the analysis. The gears may be straddle mounted or supported in a bearing quill. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distribution. The reduction's basic dynamic capacity is defined as the output torque which may be applied for one million output rotations of the bevel gear with a 90 percent probability of reduction survival.

Unified nano-mechanics based probabilistic theory of quasibrittle and brittle structures: I. Strength, static crack growth, lifetime and scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Jia-Liang; Bažant, Zdeněk P.; Bazant, Martin Z.

2011-07-01

Engineering structures must be designed for an extremely low failure probability such as 10 -6, which is beyond the means of direct verification by histogram testing. This is not a problem for brittle or ductile materials because the type of probability distribution of structural strength is fixed and known, making it possible to predict the tail probabilities from the mean and variance. It is a problem, though, for quasibrittle materials for which the type of strength distribution transitions from Gaussian to Weibullian as the structure size increases. These are heterogeneous materials with brittle constituents, characterized by material inhomogeneities that are not negligible compared to the structure size. Examples include concrete, fiber composites, coarse-grained or toughened ceramics, rocks, sea ice, rigid foams and bone, as well as many materials used in nano- and microscale devices. This study presents a unified theory of strength and lifetime for such materials, based on activation energy controlled random jumps of the nano-crack front, and on the nano-macro multiscale transition of tail probabilities. Part I of this study deals with the case of monotonic and sustained (or creep) loading, and Part II with fatigue (or cyclic) loading. On the scale of the representative volume element of material, the probability distribution of strength has a Gaussian core onto which a remote Weibull tail is grafted at failure probability of the order of 10 -3. With increasing structure size, the Weibull tail penetrates into the Gaussian core. The probability distribution of static (creep) lifetime is related to the strength distribution by the power law for the static crack growth rate, for which a physical justification is given. The present theory yields a simple relation between the exponent of this law and the Weibull moduli for strength and lifetime. The benefit is that the lifetime distribution can be predicted from short-time tests of the mean size effect on strength and tests of the power law for the crack growth rate. The theory is shown to match closely numerous test data on strength and static lifetime of ceramics and concrete, and explains why their histograms deviate systematically from the straight line in Weibull scale. Although the present unified theory is built on several previous advances, new contributions are here made to address: (i) a crack in a disordered nano-structure (such as that of hydrated Portland cement), (ii) tail probability of a fiber bundle (or parallel coupling) model with softening elements, (iii) convergence of this model to the Gaussian distribution, (iv) the stress-life curve under constant load, and (v) a detailed random walk analysis of crack front jumps in an atomic lattice. The nonlocal behavior is captured in the present theory through the finiteness of the number of links in the weakest-link model, which explains why the mean size effect coincides with that of the previously formulated nonlocal Weibull theory. Brittle structures correspond to the large-size limit of the present theory. An important practical conclusion is that the safety factors for strength and tolerable minimum lifetime for large quasibrittle structures (e.g., concrete structures and composite airframes or ship hulls, as well as various micro-devices) should be calculated as a function of structure size and geometry.

Fishnet statistics for probabilistic strength and scaling of nacreous imbricated lamellar materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Wen; Bažant, Zdeněk P.

2017-12-01

Similar to nacre (or brick masonry), imbricated (or staggered) lamellar structures are widely found in nature and man-made materials, and are of interest for biomimetics. They can achieve high defect insensitivity and fracture toughness, as demonstrated in previous studies. But the probability distribution with a realistic far-left tail is apparently unknown. Here, strictly for statistical purposes, the microstructure of nacre is approximated by a diagonally pulled fishnet with quasibrittle links representing the shear bonds between parallel lamellae (or platelets). The probability distribution of fishnet strength is calculated as a sum of a rapidly convergent series of the failure probabilities after the rupture of one, two, three, etc., links. Each of them represents a combination of joint probabilities and of additive probabilities of disjoint events, modified near the zone of failed links by the stress redistributions caused by previously failed links. Based on previous nano- and multi-scale studies at Northwestern, the strength distribution of each link, characterizing the interlamellar shear bond, is assumed to be a Gauss-Weibull graft, but with a deeper Weibull tail than in Type 1 failure of non-imbricated quasibrittle materials. The autocorrelation length is considered equal to the link length. The size of the zone of failed links at maximum load increases with the coefficient of variation (CoV) of link strength, and also with fishnet size. With an increasing width-to-length aspect ratio, a rectangular fishnet gradually transits from the weakest-link chain to the fiber bundle, as the limit cases. The fishnet strength at failure probability 10-6 grows with the width-to-length ratio. For a square fishnet boundary, the strength at 10-6 failure probability is about 11% higher, while at fixed load the failure probability is about 25-times higher than it is for the non-imbricated case. This is a major safety advantage of the fishnet architecture over particulate or fiber reinforced materials. There is also a strong size effect, partly similar to that of Type 1 while the curves of log-strength versus log-size for different sizes could cross each other. The predicted behavior is verified by about a million Monte Carlo simulations for each of many fishnet geometries, sizes and CoVs of link strength. In addition to the weakest-link or fiber bundle, the fishnet becomes the third analytically tractable statistical model of structural strength, and has the former two as limit cases.

ESTIMATION OF CRACK-ARREST TOUGHNESS TRANSITION AND NDT TEMPERATURES FROM CHARPY FORCE-DISPLACEMENT IMPACT TRACES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sokolov, Mikhail A

2010-01-01

A force-displacement trace of a Charpy impact test of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steel in the transition range has a characteristic point, the so-called force at the end of unstable crack propagation , Fa. A two-parameter Weibull probability function is used to model the distribution of the Fa in Charpy tests performed at ORNL on different RPV steels in the unirradiated and irradiated conditions. These data have a good replication at a given test temperature, thus, the statistical analysis was applicable. It is shown that when temperature is normalized to TNDT (T-TNDT) or to T100a (T-T100a), the median Famore » values of different RPV steels have a tendency to form the same shape of temperature dependence. Depending on normalization temperature, TNDT or T100a, it suggests a universal shape of the temperature dependence of Fa for different RPV steels. The best fits for these temperature dependencies are presented. These dependencies are suggested for use in estimation of NDT or T100a from randomly generated Charpy impact tests. The maximum likelihood methods are used to derive equations to estimate TNDT and T100a from randomly generated Charpy impact tests.« less

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

High Temperature Mechanical Characterization and Analysis of Al2O3 /Al2O3 Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Jaskowiak, Martha H.

1999-01-01

Sixteen ply unidirectional zirconia coated single crystal Al2O3 fiber reinforced polycrystalline Al2O3 was tested in uniaxial tension at temperatures to 1400 C in air. Fiber volume fractions ranged from 26 to 31%. The matrix has primarily open porosity of approximately 40%. Theories for predicting the Young's modulus, first matrix cracking stress, and ultimate strength were applied and evaluated for suitability in predicting the mechanical behavior of Al2O3/Al2O3 composites. The composite exhibited pseudo tough behavior (increased area under the stress/strain curve relative to monolithic alumina) from 22 to 1400 C. The rule-of-mixtures provides a good estimate of the Young's modulus of the composite using the constituent properties from room temperature to approximately 1200 C for short term static tensile tests in air. The ACK theory provides the best approximation of the first matrix cracking stress while accounting for residual stresses at room temperature. Difficulties in determining the fiber/matrix interfacial shear stress at high temperatures prevented the accurate prediction of the first matrix cracking stress above room temperature. The theory of Cao and Thouless, based on Weibull statistics, gave the best prediction for the composite ultimate tensile strength.

Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: A survival prediction model to facilitate clinical decision making.

PubMed

Bradbury, Andrew W; Adam, Donald J; Bell, Jocelyn; Forbes, John F; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Gillespie, Ian; Ruckley, Charles Vaughan; Raab, Gillian M

2010-05-01

An intention-to-treat analysis of the Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial showed that in patients with severe lower limb ischemia (SLI) due to infrainguinal disease who survived for 2 years after intervention, initial randomization to a bypass surgery (BSX)-first vs balloon angioplasty (BAP)-first revascularization strategy was associated with improvements in subsequent overall survival (OS) and amputation-free survival (AFS) of about 7 and 6 months, respectively. This study explored the value of baseline factors to estimate the likelihood of survival to 2 years for the trial cohort (Cox model) and for individual BASIL trial patients (Weibull model) as an aid to clinical decision making. Of 452 patients presenting to 27 United Kingdom hospitals, 228 were randomly assigned to a BSX-first and 224 to a BAP-first revascularization strategy. Patients were monitored for at least 3 years. Baseline factors affecting the survival of the entire cohort were examined with a multivariate Cox model. The chances of survival at 1 and 2 years for patients with given baseline characteristics were estimated with a Weibull parametric model. At the end of follow-up, 172 patients (38%) were alive without major limb amputation of the trial leg, and 202 (45%) were alive. Baseline factors that were significant in the Cox model were BASIL randomization stratification group, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, age, diabetes, creatinine level, and smoking status. Using these factors to define five equally sized groups, we identified patients with 2-year survival rates of 50% to 90%. The factors that contributed to the Weibull predictive model were age, presence of tissue loss, serum creatinine, number of ankle pressure measurements detectable, maximum ankle pressure measured, a history of myocardial infarction or angina, a history of stroke or transient ischemia attack, below knee Bollinger angiogram score, body mass index, and smoking status. Patients in the BASIL trial were at high risk of amputation and death regardless of revascularization strategy. However, baseline factors can be used to stratify those risks. Furthermore, within a parametric Weibull model, certain of these factors can be used to help predict outcomes for individuals. It may thus be possible to define the clinical and anatomic (angiographic) characteristics of SLI patients who are likely-and not likely-to live for >2 years after intervention. Used appropriately in the context of the BASIL trial outcomes, this may aid clinical decision making regarding a BSX- or BAP-first revascularization strategy in SLI patients like those randomized in BASIL. Copyright (c) 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.

PubMed

Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane

2016-06-16

Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be implemented in a probabilistic exposure assessment or a quantitative microbial risk assessment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

2003-01-01

A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

A short term quality control tool for biodegradable microspheres.

PubMed

D'Souza, Susan; Faraj, Jabar A; Dorati, Rossella; DeLuca, Patrick P

2014-06-01

Accelerated in vitro release testing methodology has been developed as an indicator of product performance to be used as a discriminatory quality control (QC) technique for the release of clinical and commercial batches of biodegradable microspheres. While product performance of biodegradable microspheres can be verified by in vivo and/or in vitro experiments, such evaluation can be particularly challenging because of slow polymer degradation, resulting in extended study times, labor, and expense. Three batches of Leuprolide poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) microspheres having varying morphology (process variants having different particle size and specific surface area) were manufactured by the solvent extraction/evaporation technique. Tests involving in vitro release, polymer degradation and hydration of the microspheres were performed on the three batches at 55°C. In vitro peptide release at 55°C was analyzed using a previously derived modification of the Weibull function termed the modified Weibull equation (MWE). Experimental observations and data analysis confirm excellent reproducibility studies within and between batches of the microsphere formulations demonstrating the predictability of the accelerated experiments at 55°C. The accelerated test method was also successfully able to distinguish the in vitro product performance between the three batches having varying morphology (process variants), indicating that it is a suitable QC tool to discriminate product or process variants in clinical or commercial batches of microspheres. Additionally, data analysis utilized the MWE to further quantify the differences obtained from the accelerated in vitro product performance test between process variants, thereby enhancing the discriminatory power of the accelerated methodology at 55°C.

EU-Norsewind Using Envisat ASAR And Other Data For Offshore Wind Atlas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasager, Charlotte B.; Mouche, Alexis; Badger, Merete

2010-04-01

The EU project NORSEWIND - short for Northern Seas Wind Index Database - www.norsewind.eu has the aim to produce state-of-the-art wind atlas for the Baltic, Irish and North Seas using ground-based lidar, meteorological masts, satellite data and mesoscale modelling. So far CLS and Risø DTU have collected Envisat ASAR images for the area of interest and the first results: maps of wind statistics, Weibull scale and shape parameters, mean and energy density are presented. The results will be compared to a distributed network of high-quality in-situ observations and mesoscale model results during 2009-2011 as the in-situ data and model results become available. Wind energy is proportional with wind speed to the third power, thus even small improvements on wind speed mapping are important in this project. One challenge is to arrive at hub-height winds ~100 m above sea level.

Hyperchaotic Dynamics for Light Polarization in a Laser Diode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonatto, Cristian

2018-04-01

It is shown that a highly randomlike behavior of light polarization states in the output of a free-running laser diode, covering the whole Poincaré sphere, arises as a result from a fully deterministic nonlinear process, which is characterized by a hyperchaotic dynamics of two polarization modes nonlinearly coupled with a semiconductor medium, inside the optical cavity. A number of statistical distributions were found to describe the deterministic data of the low-dimensional nonlinear flow, such as lognormal distribution for the light intensity, Gaussian distributions for the electric field components and electron densities, Rice and Rayleigh distributions, and Weibull and negative exponential distributions, for the modulus and intensity of the orthogonal linear components of the electric field, respectively. The presented results could be relevant for the generation of single units of compact light source devices to be used in low-dimensional optical hyperchaos-based applications.

Evaluating principal surrogate endpoints with time-to-event data accounting for time-varying treatment efficacy.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Gilbert, Peter B

2014-04-01

Principal surrogate (PS) endpoints are relatively inexpensive and easy to measure study outcomes that can be used to reliably predict treatment effects on clinical endpoints of interest. Few statistical methods for assessing the validity of potential PSs utilize time-to-event clinical endpoint information and to our knowledge none allow for the characterization of time-varying treatment effects. We introduce the time-dependent and surrogate-dependent treatment efficacy curve, ${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$, and a new augmented trial design for assessing the quality of a biomarker as a PS. We propose a novel Weibull model and an estimated maximum likelihood method for estimation of the ${\\mathrm {TE}}(t|s)$ curve. We describe the operating characteristics of our methods via simulations. We analyze data from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial, in which we find evidence of a biomarker with value as a PS.

Mechanical characterization of TiO{sub 2} nanofibers produced by different electrospinning techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vahtrus, Mikk; Šutka, Andris; Institute of Silicate Materials, Riga Technical University, P. Valdena 3/7, Riga LV-1048

2015-02-15

In this work TiO{sub 2} nanofibers produced by needle and needleless electrospinning processes from the same precursor were characterized and compared using Raman spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and in situ SEM nanomechanical testing. Phase composition, morphology, Young's modulus and bending strength values were found. Weibull statistics was used to evaluate and compare uniformity of mechanical properties of nanofibers produced by two different methods. It is shown that both methods yield nanofibers with very similar properties. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted - Highlights: • TiO{sub 2} nanofibers were produced by needle and needleless electrospinning processes. •more » Structure was studied by Raman spectroscopy and electron microscopy methods. • Mechanical properties were measured using advanced in situ SEM cantilevered beam bending technique. • Both methods yield nanofibers with very similar properties.« less

The probability distribution model of air pollution index and its dominants in Kuala Lumpur

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Dhurafi, Nasr Ahmed; Razali, Ahmad Mahir; Masseran, Nurulkamal; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2016-11-01

This paper focuses on the statistical modeling for the distributions of air pollution index (API) and its sub-indexes data observed at Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. Five pollutants or sub-indexes are measured including, carbon monoxide (CO); sulphur dioxide (SO2); nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and; particulate matter (PM10). Four probability distributions are considered, namely log-normal, exponential, Gamma and Weibull in search for the best fit distribution to the Malaysian air pollutants data. In order to determine the best distribution for describing the air pollutants data, five goodness-of-fit criteria's are applied. This will help in minimizing the uncertainty in pollution resource estimates and improving the assessment phase of planning. The conflict in criterion results for selecting the best distribution was overcome by using the weight of ranks method. We found that the Gamma distribution is the best distribution for the majority of air pollutants data in Kuala Lumpur.

Toward a unified approach to dose-response modeling in ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Ritz, Christian

2010-01-01

This study reviews dose-response models that are used in ecotoxicology. The focus lies on clarification of differences and similarities between models, and as a side effect, their different guises in ecotoxicology are unravelled. A look at frequently used dose-response models reveals major discrepancies, among other things in naming conventions. Therefore, there is a need for a unified view on dose-response modeling in order to improve the understanding of it and to facilitate communication and comparison of findings across studies, thus realizing its full potential. This study attempts to establish a general framework that encompasses most dose-response models that are of interest to ecotoxicologists in practice. The framework includes commonly used models such as the log-logistic and Weibull models, but also features entire suites of models as found in various guidance documents. An outline on how the proposed framework can be implemented in statistical software systems is also provided.

Bonded-cell model for particle fracture.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc-Hanh; Azéma, Emilien; Sornay, Philippe; Radjai, Farhang

2015-02-01

Particle degradation and fracture play an important role in natural granular flows and in many applications of granular materials. We analyze the fracture properties of two-dimensional disklike particles modeled as aggregates of rigid cells bonded along their sides by a cohesive Mohr-Coulomb law and simulated by the contact dynamics method. We show that the compressive strength scales with tensile strength between cells but depends also on the friction coefficient and a parameter describing cell shape distribution. The statistical scatter of compressive strength is well described by the Weibull distribution function with a shape parameter varying from 6 to 10 depending on cell shape distribution. We show that this distribution may be understood in terms of percolating critical intercellular contacts. We propose a random-walk model of critical contacts that leads to particle size dependence of the compressive strength in good agreement with our simulation data.

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, H. C.; Wimmer, J. M.

1986-01-01

Silicon nitride is a high temperature material currently under consideration for heat engine and other applications. The objective is to improve the net shape fabrication technology of Si3N4 by injection molding. This is to be accomplished by optimizing the process through a series of statistically designed matrix experiments. To provide input to the matrix experiments, a wide range of alternate materials and processing parameters was investigated throughout the whole program. The improvement in the processing is to be demonstrated by a 20 percent increase in strength and a 100 percent increase in the Weibull modulus over that of the baseline material. A full characterization of the baseline process was completed. Material properties were found to be highly dependent on each step of the process. Several important parameters identified thus far are the starting raw materials, sinter/hot isostatic pressing cycle, powder bed, mixing methods, and sintering aid levels.

Computer routines for probability distributions, random numbers, and related functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, W.

1983-01-01

Use of previously coded and tested subroutines simplifies and speeds up program development and testing. This report presents routines that can be used to calculate various probability distributions and other functions of importance in statistical hydrology. The routines are designed as general-purpose Fortran subroutines and functions to be called from user-written main progress. The probability distributions provided include the beta, chi-square, gamma, Gaussian (normal), Pearson Type III (tables and approximation), and Weibull. Also provided are the distributions of the Grubbs-Beck outlier test, Kolmogorov 's and Smirnov 's D, Student 's t, noncentral t (approximate), and Snedecor F. Other mathematical functions include the Bessel function, I sub o, gamma and log-gamma functions, error functions, and exponential integral. Auxiliary services include sorting and printer-plotting. Random number generators for uniform and normal numbers are provided and may be used with some of the above routines to generate numbers from other distributions. (USGS)

Computer routines for probability distributions, random numbers, and related functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, W.H.

1980-01-01

Use of previously codes and tested subroutines simplifies and speeds up program development and testing. This report presents routines that can be used to calculate various probability distributions and other functions of importance in statistical hydrology. The routines are designed as general-purpose Fortran subroutines and functions to be called from user-written main programs. The probability distributions provided include the beta, chisquare, gamma, Gaussian (normal), Pearson Type III (tables and approximation), and Weibull. Also provided are the distributions of the Grubbs-Beck outlier test, Kolmogorov 's and Smirnov 's D, Student 's t, noncentral t (approximate), and Snedecor F tests. Other mathematical functions include the Bessel function I (subzero), gamma and log-gamma functions, error functions and exponential integral. Auxiliary services include sorting and printer plotting. Random number generators for uniform and normal numbers are provided and may be used with some of the above routines to generate numbers from other distributions. (USGS)

Evaluation of a novel multiple phase veneering ceramic.

PubMed

Sinthuprasirt, Pannapa; van Noort, Richard; Moorehead, Robert; Pollington, Sarah

2015-04-01

To produce a new veneering ceramic based on the production of a multiple phase glass-ceramic with improved performance in terms of strength and toughness. A composition of 60% leucite, 20% diopside and 20% feldspathic glass was prepared, blended and a heat treatment schedule of 930°C for 5 min was derived from differential thermal analysis (DTA) of the glasses. X-ray diffraction (XRD) and SEM analysis determined the crystalline phases and microstructure. Chemical solubility, biaxial flexural strength (BFS), fracture toughness, hardness, total transmittance and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) were all measured in comparison to a commercial veneering ceramic (VITA VM9). Thermal shock resistance of the leucite-diopside and VITA VM9 veneered onto a commercial high strength zirconia (Vita In-Ceram YZ) was also assessed. Statistical analysis was undertaken using Independent Samples t-test. Weibull analysis was employed to examine the reliability of the strength data. The mean chemical solubility was 6 μg/cm(2) for both ceramics (P=1.00). The mean BFS was 109 ± 8 MPa for leucite-diopside ceramic and 79 ± 11 MPa for VITA VM9 ceramic (P=0.01). Similarly, the leucite-diopside ceramic demonstrated a significantly higher fracture toughness and hardness. The average total transmittance was 46.3% for leucite-diopside ceramic and 39.8% for VITA VM9 (P=0.01). The leucite-diopside outperformed the VITA VM9 in terms of thermal shock resistance. Significance This novel veneering ceramic exhibits significant improvements in terms of mechanical properties, yet retains a high translucency and is the most appropriate choice as a veneering ceramic for a zirconia base core material. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrogen peroxide bleaching induces changes in the physical properties of dental restorative materials: Effects of study protocols.

PubMed

Yu, Hao; Zhang, Chang-Yuan; Wang, Yi-Ning; Cheng, Hui

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of study protocols on the effects of bleaching on the surface roughness, substance loss, flexural strength (FS), flexural modulus (FM), Weibull parameters, and color of 7 restorative materials. The test materials included 4 composite resins, 1 glass-ionomer cement, 1 dental ceramic, and 1 polyacid-modified composite. The specimens were randomly divided into 4 groups (n = 20) according to different study protocols: a bleaching group at 25°C (group 25B), a bleaching group at 37°C (group 37B), a control group at 25°C (group 25C), and a control group at 37°C (group 37C). The specimens in the bleaching group were treated with 40% hydrogen peroxide for 80 min at the respective environmental temperatures. The surface roughness, substance loss, FS, FM, and color of the specimens were measured before and after treatment. FS data were also subjected to Weibull analysis, which was used to estimate of the Weibull modulus (m) and the characteristic strength (σ 0 ). Surface roughness increased and significant color changes were observed for all tested specimens after bleaching treatment, except for the ceramic. After bleaching at 37°C, the polyacid-modified composite showed significantly reduced FS, FM, m, and σ 0 values in comparison to the control specimens stored at 37°C in whole saliva. Significant differences were also found between the 37B and 25B polyacid-modified composite groups in terms of surface roughness, FS, m, σ 0 , and color changes. Varying effects of bleaching on the physical properties of dental restorative materials were observed, and the influences of the study protocols on bleaching effects were found to be material-dependent. The influence of study protocols on the effects of bleaching on the surface roughness, flexural properties, and color of dental restorative materials are material-dependent and should be considered when evaluating the effects of bleaching on dental restorative materials. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Self-organized criticality in complex systems: Applicability to the interoccurrent and recurrent statistical behavior of earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abaimov, Sergey G.

The concept of self-organized criticality is associated with scale-invariant, fractal behavior; this concept is also applicable to earthquake systems. It is known that the interoccurrent frequency-size distribution of earthquakes in a region is scale-invariant and obeys the Gutenberg-Richter power-law dependence. Also, the interoccurrent time-interval distribution is known to obey Poissonian statistics excluding aftershocks. However, to estimate the hazard risk for a region it is necessary to know also the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault. This behavior has been investigated in the literature, however, major questions remain unresolved. The reason is the small number of earthquakes in observed sequences. To overcome this difficulty this research utilizes numerical simulations of a slider-block model and a sand-pile model. Also, experimental observations of creep events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault are processed and sequences up to 100 events are studied. Then the recurrent behavior of earthquakes at a given point on a fault or at a given fault is investigated. It is shown that both the recurrent frequency-size and the time-interval behaviors of earthquakes obey the Weibull distribution.

Practical application of cure mixture model for long-term censored survivor data from a withdrawal clinical trial of patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Arano, Ichiro; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Hamasaki, Toshimitsu; Ohno, Yuko

2010-04-23

Survival analysis methods such as the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression (Cox regression) are commonly used to analyze data from randomized withdrawal studies in patients with major depressive disorder. However, unfortunately, such common methods may be inappropriate when a long-term censored relapse-free time appears in data as the methods assume that if complete follow-up were possible for all individuals, each would eventually experience the event of interest. In this paper, to analyse data including such a long-term censored relapse-free time, we discuss a semi-parametric cure regression (Cox cure regression), which combines a logistic formulation for the probability of occurrence of an event with a Cox proportional hazards specification for the time of occurrence of the event. In specifying the treatment's effect on disease-free survival, we consider the fraction of long-term survivors and the risks associated with a relapse of the disease. In addition, we develop a tree-based method for the time to event data to identify groups of patients with differing prognoses (cure survival CART). Although analysis methods typically adapt the log-rank statistic for recursive partitioning procedures, the method applied here used a likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic from a fitting of cure survival regression assuming exponential and Weibull distributions for the latency time of relapse. The method is illustrated using data from a sertraline randomized withdrawal study in patients with major depressive disorder. We concluded that Cox cure regression reveals facts on who may be cured, and how the treatment and other factors effect on the cured incidence and on the relapse time of uncured patients, and that cure survival CART output provides easily understandable and interpretable information, useful both in identifying groups of patients with differing prognoses and in utilizing Cox cure regression models leading to meaningful interpretations.

Fabrication Quality Analysis of a Fiber Optic Refractive Index Sensor Created by CO2 Laser Machining

PubMed Central

Chen, Chien-Hsing; Yeh, Bo-Kuan; Tang, Jaw-Luen; Wu, Wei-Te

2013-01-01

This study investigates the CO2 laser-stripped partial cladding of silica-based optic fibers with a core diameter of 400 μm, which enables them to sense the refractive index of the surrounding environment. However, inappropriate treatments during the machining process can generate a number of defects in the optic fiber sensors. Therefore, the quality of optic fiber sensors fabricated using CO2 laser machining must be analyzed. The results show that analysis of the fiber core size after machining can provide preliminary defect detection, and qualitative analysis of the optical transmission defects can be used to identify imperfections that are difficult to observe through size analysis. To more precisely and quantitatively detect fabrication defects, we included a tensile test and numerical aperture measurements in this study. After a series of quality inspections, we proposed improvements to the existing CO2 laser machining parameters, namely, a vertical scanning pathway, 4 W of power, and a feed rate of 9.45 cm/s. Using these improved parameters, we created optical fiber sensors with a core diameter of approximately 400 μm, no obvious optical transmission defects, a numerical aperture of 0.52 ± 0.019, a 0.886 Weibull modulus, and a 1.186 Weibull-shaped parameter. Finally, we used the optical fiber sensor fabricated using the improved parameters to measure the refractive indices of various solutions. The results show that a refractive-index resolution of 1.8 × 10−4 RIU (linear fitting R2 = 0.954) was achieved for sucrose solutions with refractive indices ranging between 1.333 and 1.383. We also adopted the particle plasmon resonance sensing scheme using the fabricated optical fibers. The results provided additional information, specifically, a superior sensor resolution of 5.73 × 10−5 RIU, and greater linearity at R2 = 0.999. PMID:23535636

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, J.

1998-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

SMALL-SCALE AND GLOBAL DYNAMOS AND THE AREA AND FLUX DISTRIBUTIONS OF ACTIVE REGIONS, SUNSPOT GROUPS, AND SUNSPOTS: A MULTI-DATABASE STUDY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Windmueller, John C.; Amouzou, Ernest C.

2015-02-10

In this work, we take advantage of 11 different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions—where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizesmore » the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10{sup 21}Mx (10{sup 22}Mx). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended to smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection)« less

Probabilistic thermal-shock strength testing using infrared imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, A.A.; Scheidt, R.A.; Ferber, M.K.

1999-12-01

A thermal-shock strength-testing technique has been developed that uses a high-resolution, high-temperature infrared camera to capture a specimen's surface temperature distribution at fracture. Aluminum nitride (AlN) substrates are thermally shocked to fracture to demonstrate the technique. The surface temperature distribution for each test and AlN's thermal expansion are used as input in a finite-element model to determine the thermal-shock strength for each specimen. An uncensored thermal-shock strength Weibull distribution is then determined. The test and analysis algorithm show promise as a means to characterize thermal shock strength of ceramic materials.

The Application of a Novel Ceramic Liner Improves Bonding between Zirconia and Veneering Porcelain

PubMed Central

Lee, Hee-Sung

2017-01-01

The adhesion of porcelain to zirconia is a key factor in the success of bilayered restorations. In this study, the efficacy of a novel experimental liner (EL) containing zirconia for improved bonding between zirconia and veneering porcelain was tested. Four ELs containing various concentrations (0, 3.0, 6.0, and 9.0 wt %) of zirconia were prepared. Testing determined the most effective EL (EL3 containing 3.0 wt % zirconia) in terms of shear bond strength value (n = 15). Three different bar-shaped zirconia/porcelain bilayer specimens were prepared for a three-point flexural strength (TPFS) test (n = 15): no-liner (NL), commercial liner (CL), and EL3. Specimens were tested for TPFS with the porcelain under tension and the maximum load was measured at the first sign of fracture. The strength data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s test (α = 0.05) as well as Weibull distribution. When compared to NL, the CL application had no effect, while the EL3 application had a significant positive effect (p < 0.001) on the flexural strength. Weibull analysis also revealed the highest shape and scale parameters for group EL3. Within the limitations of this study, the novel ceramic liner containing 3.0 wt % zirconia (EL3) significantly enhanced the zirconia/porcelain interfacial bonding. PMID:28869512

A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Donhang

2014-01-01

The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The two identified failure modes follow different acceleration functions. Catastrophic failures follow the traditional power-law relationship to the applied voltage. Slow degradation failures fit well to an exponential law relationship to the applied electrical field. Finally, the impact of capacitor structure on the reliability of BME capacitors is discussed with respect to the number of dielectric layers in an MLCC unit, the number of BaTiO3 grains per dielectric layer, and the chip size of the capacitor device.

Fracture resistance and reliability of new zirconia posts.

PubMed

Oblak, Cedomir; Jevnikar, Peter; Kosmac, Tomaz; Funduk, Nenad; Marion, Ljubo

2004-04-01

The radicular portion of zirconia endodontic posts often need to be reshaped to achieve a definitive form and may be airborne-particle abraded to improve adhesion during luting. Therefore, the surface of the tetragonal zirconia ceramics may be transformed and damaged, influencing the mechanical properties of the material. This study compared the fracture resistance of prefabricated zirconia posts with a new retentive post-head after different surface treatments. Experimental zirconia posts of 2 different diameters, 1.3 mm and 1.5 mm, were produced from commercially available zirconia powder. A cylindro-conical outline form was used for the root portion of the system and a post-head with 3 retentive rings was designed. Sixty posts of each diameter were divided into 3 groups (n=20). Group 1 was ground with a coarse grit diamond bur; Group 2 was airborne-particle abraded with 110-microm fused alumina particles, and Group 3 was left as-received (controls). Posts were luted into the root-shaped artificial canals with the Clearfil adhesive system and Panavia 21 adhesive resin luting agent. The posts were loaded in a universal testing machine at an inclination of 45 degrees with the constant cross-head speed of 1 mm/min. The fracture load (N) necessary to cause post fracture was recorded, and the statistical significance of differences among groups was analyzed with 1-way ANOVA followed by the Fischer LSD test (alpha=.05). The variability was analyzed using Weibull statistics. Load to fracture values of all zirconia posts depended primarily on post diameter. Mean fracture loads (SD) in Newtons were 518.4 (+/-101.3), 993.6 (+/-224.1), and 622.7 (+/-110.3) for Groups 1 through 3, respectively, for thicker posts, and 385.9 (+/-110.3), 627.0 (+/-115.1), and 451.2 (+/-81.4) for Groups 1 through 3, respectively, for thinner posts. Airborne-particle-abraded posts exhibited significantly higher resistance to fracture (P<.05) than those in the other 2 groups for diameters 1.3 mm and 1.5 mm. Grinding reduced Weibull modulus compared with controls, and the values were 4.1 and 6.5 for thicker and thinner posts, respectively. Within the limitations of this study, the results suggest that grinding leads to a significant drop in load to fracture of zirconia posts, whereas airborne-particle abrasion increased the fracture load.

Average BER of subcarrier intensity modulated free space optical systems over the exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Zhang, Lu; Guo, Lixin; Huang, Feng; Shang, Tao; Wang, Ranran; Yang, Yintang

2014-08-25

The average bit error rate (BER) for binary phase-shift keying (BPSK) modulation in free-space optical (FSO) links over turbulence atmosphere modeled by the exponentiated Weibull (EW) distribution is investigated in detail. The effects of aperture averaging on the average BERs for BPSK modulation under weak-to-strong turbulence conditions are studied. The average BERs of EW distribution are compared with Lognormal (LN) and Gamma-Gamma (GG) distributions in weak and strong turbulence atmosphere, respectively. The outage probability is also obtained for different turbulence strengths and receiver aperture sizes. The analytical results deduced by the generalized Gauss-Laguerre quadrature rule are verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. This work is helpful for the design of receivers for FSO communication systems.

Reliability Evaluation Method with Weibull Distribution for Temporary Overvoltages of Substation Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okabe, Shigemitsu; Tsuboi, Toshihiro; Takami, Jun

The power-frequency withstand voltage tests are regulated on electric power equipment in JEC by evaluating the lifetime reliability with a Weibull distribution function. The evaluation method is still controversial in terms of consideration of a plural number of faults and some alternative methods were proposed on this subject. The present paper first discusses the physical meanings of the various kinds of evaluating methods and secondly examines their effects on the power-frequency withstand voltage tests. Further, an appropriate method is investigated for an oil-filled transformer and a gas insulated switchgear with taking notice of dielectric breakdown or partial discharge mechanism under various insulating material and structure conditions and the tentative conclusion gives that the conventional method would be most pertinent under the present conditions.

Degradation kinetics of organic dyes in water by high voltage atmospheric air and modified air cold plasma.

PubMed

Pankaj, S K; Wan, Zifan; Colonna, William; Keener, Kevin M

2017-07-01

High voltage atmospheric cold plasma (HVACP) is a novel, non-thermal technology which has shown potential for degradation of various toxic components in wastewater. In this study, HVACP was used to examine the degradation kinetics of methyl red, crystal violet and fast green FCF dyes. HVACP discharge was found to be a source of reactive nitrogen and oxygen species. High voltage application completely degraded all dyes tested in less than 5 min treatment time. Plasma from modified gas (∼65% O 2 ) further reduced the treatment time by 50% vs. plasma from dry air. First order and Weibull models were fitted to the degradation data. The Weibull model was found better in explaining the degradation kinetics of all the treated dyes.

Effective Size Analysis of the Diametral Compression (Brazil) Test Specimen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadaan, Osama M.; Wereszczak, Andrew A

2009-04-01

This study considers the finite element analysis (FEA) simulation and Weibull effective size analysis for the diametral compression (DC) or Brazil specimen loaded with three different push-rod geometries. Those geometries are a flat push-rod, a push-rod whose radius of curvature is larger than that for the DC specimen, and a push-rod whose radius of curvature matches that of the DC specimen. Such established effective size analysis recognizes that the tensile strength of structural ceramics is typically one to two orders of magnitude less than its compressive strength. Therefore, because fracture is much more apt to result from a tensile stressmore » than a compressive one, this traditional analysis only considers the first principal tensile stress field in the mechanically loaded ceramic component for the effective size analysis. The effective areas and effective volumes were computed as function of Weibull modulus using the CARES/Life code. Particular attention was devoted to the effect of mesh sensitivity and localized stress concentration. The effect of specimen width on the stress state was also investigated. The effects of push-rod geometry, the use of steel versus WC push-rods, and considering a frictionless versus no-slip interface between push-rod and specimen on the maximum stresses, where those stresses are located, and the effective area and effective volume results are described. Of the three push-rod geometries, it is concluded that the push-rod (made from WC rather than steel) whose radius of curvature matches that of the DC specimen is the most apt to cause fracture initiation within the specimen's bulk rather than at the loading interface. Therefore, its geometry is the most likely to produce a valid diametral compression strength test. However, the DC specimen remains inefficient in terms of its area and volume efficiencies; namely, the tensile strength of only a few percent of the specimen's entire area or volume is sampled. Given the high probability that a valid (or invalid) test can be proven by ceramic fractographic practices suggests that this test method and specimen is questionable for use with relatively strong structural ceramics.« less

Time-dependent fiber bundles with local load sharing. II. General Weibull fibers.

PubMed

Phoenix, S Leigh; Newman, William I

2009-12-01

Fiber bundle models (FBMs) are useful tools in understanding failure processes in a variety of material systems. While the fibers and load sharing assumptions are easily described, FBM analysis is typically difficult. Monte Carlo methods are also hampered by the severe computational demands of large bundle sizes, which overwhelm just as behavior relevant to real materials starts to emerge. For large size scales, interest continues in idealized FBMs that assume either equal load sharing (ELS) or local load sharing (LLS) among fibers, rules that reflect features of real load redistribution in elastic lattices. The present work focuses on a one-dimensional bundle of N fibers under LLS where life consumption in a fiber follows a power law in its load, with exponent rho , and integrated over time. This life consumption function is further embodied in a functional form resulting in a Weibull distribution for lifetime under constant fiber stress and with Weibull exponent, beta. Thus the failure rate of a fiber depends on its past load history, except for beta=1 . We develop asymptotic results validated by Monte Carlo simulation using a computational algorithm developed in our previous work [Phys. Rev. E 63, 021507 (2001)] that greatly increases the size, N , of treatable bundles (e.g., 10(6) fibers in 10(3) realizations). In particular, our algorithm is O(N ln N) in contrast with former algorithms which were O(N2) making this investigation possible. Regimes are found for (beta,rho) pairs that yield contrasting behavior for large N. For rho>1 and large N, brittle weakest volume behavior emerges in terms of characteristic elements (groupings of fibers) derived from critical cluster formation, and the lifetime eventually goes to zero as N-->infinity , unlike ELS, which yields a finite limiting mean. For 1/21 but with 0

Time-dependent fiber bundles with local load sharing. II. General Weibull fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Newman, William I.

2009-12-01

Fiber bundle models (FBMs) are useful tools in understanding failure processes in a variety of material systems. While the fibers and load sharing assumptions are easily described, FBM analysis is typically difficult. Monte Carlo methods are also hampered by the severe computational demands of large bundle sizes, which overwhelm just as behavior relevant to real materials starts to emerge. For large size scales, interest continues in idealized FBMs that assume either equal load sharing (ELS) or local load sharing (LLS) among fibers, rules that reflect features of real load redistribution in elastic lattices. The present work focuses on a one-dimensional bundle of N fibers under LLS where life consumption in a fiber follows a power law in its load, with exponent ρ , and integrated over time. This life consumption function is further embodied in a functional form resulting in a Weibull distribution for lifetime under constant fiber stress and with Weibull exponent, β . Thus the failure rate of a fiber depends on its past load history, except for β=1 . We develop asymptotic results validated by Monte Carlo simulation using a computational algorithm developed in our previous work [Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81063-651X 63, 021507 (2001)] that greatly increases the size, N , of treatable bundles (e.g., 106 fibers in 103 realizations). In particular, our algorithm is O(NlnN) in contrast with former algorithms which were O(N2) making this investigation possible. Regimes are found for (β,ρ) pairs that yield contrasting behavior for large N . For ρ>1 and large N , brittle weakest volume behavior emerges in terms of characteristic elements (groupings of fibers) derived from critical cluster formation, and the lifetime eventually goes to zero as N→∞ , unlike ELS, which yields a finite limiting mean. For 1/2≤ρ≤1 , however, LLS has remarkably similar behavior to ELS (appearing to be virtually identical for ρ=1 ) with an asymptotic Gaussian lifetime distribution and a finite limiting mean for large N . The coefficient of variation follows a power law in increasing N but, except for ρ=1 , the value of the negative exponent is clearly less than 1/2 unlike in ELS bundles where the exponent remains 1/2 for 1/2<ρ≤1 . For sufficiently small values 0<ρ≪1 , a transition occurs, depending on β , whereby LLS bundle lifetimes become dominated by a few long-lived fibers. Thus the bundle lifetime appears to approximately follow an extreme-value distribution for the longest lived of a parallel group of independent elements, which applies exactly to ρ=0 . The lower the value of β , the higher the transition value of ρ , below which such extreme-value behavior occurs. No evidence was found for limiting Gaussian behavior for ρ>1 but with 0<β(ρ+1)<1 , as might be conjectured from quasistatic bundle models where β(ρ+1) mimics the Weibull exponent for fiber strength.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Bonding effectiveness to different chemically pre-treated dental zirconia.

PubMed

Inokoshi, Masanao; Poitevin, André; De Munck, Jan; Minakuchi, Shunsuke; Van Meerbeek, Bart

2014-09-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different chemical pre-treatments on the bond durability to dental zirconia. Fully sintered IPS e.max ZirCAD (Ivoclar Vivadent) blocks were subjected to tribochemical silica sandblasting (CoJet, 3M ESPE). The zirconia samples were additionally pre-treated using one of four zirconia primers/adhesives (Clearfil Ceramic Primer, Kuraray Noritake; Monobond Plus, Ivoclar Vivadent; Scotchbond Universal, 3M ESPE; Z-PRIME Plus, Bisco). Finally, two identically pre-treated zirconia blocks were bonded together using composite cement (RelyX Ultimate, 3M ESPE). The specimens were trimmed at the interface to a cylindrical hourglass and stored in distilled water (7 days, 37 °C), after which they were randomly tested as is or subjected to mechanical ageing involving cyclic tensile stress (10 N, 10 Hz, 10,000 cycles). Subsequently, the micro-tensile bond strength was determined, and SEM fractographic analysis performed. Weibull analysis revealed the highest Weibull scale and shape parameters for the 'Clearfil Ceramic Primer/mechanical ageing' combination. Chemical pre-treatment of CoJet (3M ESPE) sandblasted zirconia using Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) and Monobond Plus (Ivoclar Vivadent) revealed a significantly higher bond strength than when Scotchbond Universal (3M ESPE) and Z-PRIME Plus (Bisco) were used. After ageing, Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) revealed the most stable bond durability. Combined mechanical/chemical pre-treatment, the latter with either Clearfil Ceramic Primer (Kuraray Noritake) or Monobond Plus (Ivoclar Vivadent), resulted in the most durable bond to zirconia. As a standard procedure to durably bond zirconia to tooth tissue, the application of a combined 10-methacryloyloxydecyl dihydrogen phosphate/silane ceramic primer to zirconia is clinically highly recommended.

Cyclic fatigue resistance of R-Pilot, WaveOne Gold Glider, and ProGlider glide path instruments.

PubMed

Keskin, Cangül; İnan, Uğur; Demiral, Murat; Keleş, Ali

2018-02-17

The aim of the present study was to compare the cyclic fatigue resistance of R-Pilot (VDW; Munich, Germany) with ProGlider (Denstply Sirona; Ballaigues, Switzerland) and WaveOne Gold Glider (Denstply Sirona; Ballaigues, Switzerland) glide path instruments. R-Pilot, ProGlider, and WaveOne Gold Glider instruments were collected (n = 15) and tested in a dynamic cyclic fatigue test device, which has an artificial canal with 60° angle of curvature and a 5-mm radius of curvature. All instruments were operated until fracture occurred, and both time to fracture (TF) and the lengths of the fractured fragments were recorded. Mean and standard deviations of TF and fragment length were calculated for each reciprocating system. TF data and fractured fragment length data were subjected to one-way ANOVA and post-hoc Tukey tests (P < 0.05). Also a Weibull analysis was performed on TF data. The cyclic fatigue resistance values of the WaveOne Gold Glider and R-Pilot were significantly higher than those of the ProGlider (P < 0.05), with no significant difference between them (P > 0.05). Weibull analysis revealed that WaveOne Gold Glider showed the highest predicted TF value for 99% survival rate, which was followed by R-Pilot and ProGlider. Regarding the length of the fractured tips, there were no significant differences among the instruments (P > 0.05). The reciprocating WaveOne Gold Glider and R-Pilot instruments had significantly higher cyclic fatigue resistance than rotary ProGlider instruments. This study reported that novel reciprocating glide path instruments exhibited higher cyclic fatigue resistance than rotating glide path instrument.

Reliability and availability analysis of a 10 kW@20 K helium refrigerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Xiong, L. Y.; Liu, L. Q.; Wang, H. R.; Wang, B. M.

2017-02-01

A 10 kW@20 K helium refrigerator has been established in the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences. To evaluate and improve this refrigerator’s reliability and availability, a reliability and availability analysis is performed. According to the mission profile of this refrigerator, a functional analysis is performed. The failure data of the refrigerator components are collected and failure rate distributions are fitted by software Weibull++ V10.0. A Failure Modes, Effects & Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is performed and the critical components with higher risks are pointed out. Software BlockSim V9.0 is used to calculate the reliability and the availability of this refrigerator. The result indicates that compressors, turbine and vacuum pump are the critical components and the key units of this refrigerator. The mitigation actions with respect to design, testing, maintenance and operation are proposed to decrease those major and medium risks.

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Reaction-Formed Silicon Carbide (RFSC) Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, M.; Behrendt, D. R.

1994-01-01

The microstructure and mechanical properties of reaction-formed silicon carbide (RFSC) ceramics fabricated by silicon infiltration of porous carbon preforms are discussed. The morphological characterization of the carbon preforms indicates a very narrow pore size distribution. Measurements of the preform density by physical methods and by mercury porosimetry agree very well and indicate that virtually all of the porosity in the preforms is open to infiltrating liquids. The average room temperature flexural strength of the RFSC material with approximately 8 at.% free silicon is 369 +/- 28 MPa (53.5 +/- 4 ksi). The Weibull strength distribution data give a characteristic strength value of 381 MPa (55 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 14.3. The residual silicon content is lower and the strengths are superior to those of most commercially available reaction-bonded silicon carbide materials.

Implication of observed cloud variability for parameterizations of microphysical and radiative transfer processes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, D.; Liu, Y.

2014-12-01

The effects of subgrid cloud variability on grid-average microphysical rates and radiative fluxes are examined by use of long-term retrieval products at the Tropical West Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. Four commonly used distribution functions, the truncated Gaussian, Gamma, lognormal, and Weibull distributions, are constrained to have the same mean and standard deviation as observed cloud liquid water content. The PDFs are then used to upscale relevant physical processes to obtain grid-average process rates. It is found that the truncated Gaussian representation results in up to 30% mean bias in autoconversion rate whereas the mean bias for the lognormal representation is about 10%. The Gamma and Weibull distribution function performs the best for the grid-average autoconversion rate with the mean relative bias less than 5%. For radiative fluxes, the lognormal and truncated Gaussian representations perform better than the Gamma and Weibull representations. The results show that the optimal choice of subgrid cloud distribution function depends on the nonlinearity of the process of interest and thus there is no single distribution function that works best for all parameterizations. Examination of the scale (window size) dependence of the mean bias indicates that the bias in grid-average process rates monotonically increases with increasing window sizes, suggesting the increasing importance of subgrid variability with increasing grid sizes.

Weibull thermodynamics: Subexponential decay in the energy spectrum of cosmic-ray nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomaschitz, Roman

2017-10-01

The spectral number density of cosmic-ray nuclei is shown to be a multiply broken power law with subexponential spectral cutoff. To this end, a spectral fit is performed to data sets covering the 1GeV - 1011GeV interval of the all-particle cosmic-ray spectrum. The flux points of the ultra-high energy spectral tail measured with the Telescope Array indicate a Weibull cutoff exp(-(E /(kB T)) σ) and permit a precise determination of the cutoff temperature kB T =(2 . 5 ± 0 . 1) × 1010 GeV and the spectral index σ = 0 . 66 ± 0 . 02. Based on the spectral number density inferred from the least-squares fit, the thermodynamics of this stationary non-equilibrium system, a multi-component mixture of relativistic nuclei, is developed. The derivative of entropy with respect to internal energy defines the effective temperature of the nuclei, S,U = 1 /Teff ,kBTeff ≈ 16 . 1 GeV, and the functional dependence between the cutoff temperature in the Weibull exponential and the effective gas temperature is determined. The equipartition ratio is found to be U /(NkBTeff) ≈ 0 . 30. The isochoric and isobaric heat capacities of the nuclear gas are calculated, as well as the isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities and the isobaric expansion coefficient, and it is shown that this non-equilibrated relativistic gas mixture satisfies the thermodynamic inequalities 0

The effect of hospital care on early survival after penetrating trauma.

PubMed

Clark, David E; Doolittle, Peter C; Winchell, Robert J; Betensky, Rebecca A

2014-12-01

The effectiveness of emergency medical interventions can be best evaluated using time-to-event statistical methods with time-varying covariates (TVC), but this approach is complicated by uncertainty about the actual times of death. We therefore sought to evaluate the effect of hospital intervention on mortality after penetrating trauma using a method that allowed for interval censoring of the precise times of death. Data on persons with penetrating trauma due to interpersonal assault were combined from the 2008 to 2010 National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the 2004 to 2010 National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models for survival time (t SURV ) were estimated, with TVC assumed to have constant effects for specified time intervals following hospital arrival. The Weibull model was repeated with t SURV interval-censored to reflect uncertainty about the precise times of death, using an imputation method to accommodate interval censoring along with TVC. All models showed that mortality was increased by older age, female sex, firearm mechanism, and injuries involving the head/neck or trunk. Uncensored models showed a paradoxical increase in mortality associated with the first hour in a hospital. The interval-censored model showed that mortality was markedly reduced after admission to a hospital, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63, 0.73) during the first 30 min declining to a HR of 0.01 after 120 min. Admission to a verified level I trauma center (compared to other hospitals in the NTDB) was associated with a further reduction in mortality, with a HR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.82, 0.97). Time-to-event models with TVC and interval censoring can be used to estimate the effect of hospital care on early mortality after penetrating trauma or other acute medical conditions and could potentially be used for interhospital comparisons.

Statistical aspects of the failure of organic-fiber-reinforced plastics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazhenov, S. L.; Kuperman, A. M.; Puchkov, L. V.; Zelenskii, É. S.; Berlin, Al. Al.; Kharchenko, E. F.; Kul'kov, A. A.

1985-11-01

Dispersion of the strength of filaments and of the Weibull coefficient β leads to a drop in strength of a strand compared with the strength of the components when the adhesion by gluing together does not amount to 2-5%. The drop in strength is determined by the dispersion of strength which depends on the length of the tested specimens. Gluing together of the fibers in filaments changes the nature of the load diagrams σ-ɛ of a filament when its length exceeds δ0. A consequence is that the mechanism of rupture of the strand changes, and this leads to an additional drop of its strength. When specimens are 500 mm long, the drop in strength of the strand compared with the mean strength of the filaments amounts to 10%. Because of the dispersion of the Weibull coefficient β, the strength of filaments does not correspond exactly to the strength of the microplastic obtained from these filaments. When there is dispersion of the strength of the filaments, failure of the plastic proceeds by failure of the microplastics as a whole. Gluing together of fibers has a double effect on the strength of the material: increased degree of gluing together of the fibers reduces the "noneffective length" from δ0 to 0.4-0.5 mm, and this leads to an increase of approximately 50% of the strength of the microplastic; increased gluing together leads to a change in the mechanism of failure of the strand and of the organic-fiber-plastic made from it if there is dispersion of the strength of the component filaments, and this reduces the strength of the material in accordance with (3) (by 12-14% in our case). The longitudinal instability of the properties of the filament leads to an additional drop in strength of the material by 4.5%.

Mechanical, Chemical and Microstructural Characterization of Monazite-Coated Silicon Carbide Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bansal, N. P.; Wheeler, D. R.; Chen, Y. L.

2000-01-01

Tensile strengths of as-received Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers and those having monazite surface coatings, deposited by atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition, were measured at room temperature and the Weibull statistical parameters determined. The average tensile strengths of uncoated Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers were 3.19 +/- 0.73 and 2.78 +/- 0.53 GPa with a Weibull modulus of 5.41 and 5.52, respectively. The monazite-coated Hi-Nicalon and Sylramic fibers showed strength loss of approx. 10 and 15 percent, respectively, compared with the as-received fibers. The elemental compositions of the fibers and the coatings were analyzed using scanning Auger microprobe and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The LaPO4 coating on Hi-Nicalon fibers was approximately stoichiometric and about 50 nm thick. The coating on the Sylramic fibers extended to a depth of about 100 to 150 nm. The coating may have been stoichiometric LaPO4 in the first 30 to 40 nm of the layer. However, the surface roughness of Sylramic fiber made this profile somewhat difficult to interpret. Microstructural analyses of the fibers and the coatings were done by scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and selected area electron diffraction. Hi-Nicalon fiber consists of fine beta-SiC nanocrystals ranging in size from 1 to 30 mn embedded in an amorphous matrix. Sylramic is a polycrystalline stoichiometric silicon carbide fiber consisting of submicron beta-SiC crystallites ranging from 100 to 300 nm. Small amount of TiB2 nanocrystallites (approx. 50 nm) are also present. The LaPO4 coating on Hi-Nicalon fibers consisted of a chain of peanut shape particles having monazite-(La) structure. The coating on Sylramic fibers consisted of two layers. The inner layer was a chain of peanut shape particles having monazite-(La) structure. The outer layer was comprised of much smaller particles with a microcrystalline structure.

Cautions regarding the fitting and interpretation of survival curves: examples from NICE single technology appraisals of drugs for cancer.

PubMed

Connock, Martin; Hyde, Chris; Moore, David

2011-10-01

The UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has used its Single Technology Appraisal (STA) programme to assess several drugs for cancer. Typically, the evidence submitted by the manufacturer comes from one short-term randomized controlled trial (RCT) demonstrating improvement in overall survival and/or in delay of disease progression, and these are the pre-eminent drivers of cost effectiveness. We draw attention to key issues encountered in assessing the quality and rigour of the manufacturers' modelling of overall survival and disease progression. Our examples are two recent STAs: sorafenib (Nexavar®) for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, and azacitidine (Vidaza®) for higher-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). The choice of parametric model had a large effect on the predicted treatment-dependent survival gain. Logarithmic models (log-Normal and log-logistic) delivered double the survival advantage that was derived from Weibull models. Both submissions selected the logarithmic fits for their base-case economic analyses and justified selection solely on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) scores. AIC scores in the azacitidine submission failed to match the choice of the log-logistic over Weibull or exponential models, and the modelled survival in the intervention arm lacked face validity. AIC scores for sorafenib models favoured log-Normal fits; however, since there is no statistical method for comparing AIC scores, and differences may be trivial, it is generally advised that the plausibility of competing models should be tested against external data and explored in diagnostic plots. Function fitting to observed data should not be a mechanical process validated by a single crude indicator (AIC). Projective models should show clear plausibility for the patients concerned and should be consistent with other published information. Multiple rather than single parametric functions should be explored and tested with diagnostic plots. When trials have survival curves with long tails exhibiting few events then the robustness of extrapolations using information in such tails should be tested.

Probabilistic structural analysis of a truss typical for space station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.

1990-01-01

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated using the computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) to identify and quantify the uncertainties and respective sensitivities associated with corresponding uncertainties in the primitive variables (structural, material, and loads parameters) that defines the truss. The distribution of each of these primitive variables is described in terms of one of several available distributions such as the Weibull, exponential, normal, log-normal, etc. The cumulative distribution function (CDF's) for the response functions considered and sensitivities associated with the primitive variables for given response are investigated. These sensitivities help in determining the dominating primitive variables for that response.

Dynamics of Polydisperse Foam-like Emulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicock, Harry; Feitosa, Klebert

2011-10-01

Foam is a complex fluid whose relaxation properties are associated with the continuous diffusion of gas from small to large bubbles driven by differences in Laplace pressures. We study the dynamics of bubble rearrangements by tracking droplets of a clear, buoyantly neutral emulsion that coarsens like a foam. The droplets are imaged in three dimensions using confocal microscopy. Analysis of the images allows us to measure their positions and radii, and track their evolution in time. We find that the droplet size distribution fits a Weibull distribution characteristics of foam systems. Additionally, we observe that droplets undergo continuous evolution interspersed by occasional large rearrangements in par with local relaxation behavior typical of foams.

A new silica-infiltrated Y-TZP obtained by the sol-gel method.

PubMed

Campos, T M B; Ramos, N C; Machado, J P B; Bottino, M A; Souza, R O A; Melo, R M

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate silica infiltration into dental zirconia (VITA In-Ceram 2000 YZ, Vita Zahnfabrik) and its effects on zirconia's surface characteristics, structural homogeneity and bonding to a resin cement. Infiltration was performed by immersion of the pre-sintered zirconia specimens in silica sols for five days (ZIn). Negative (pure zirconia specimens, ZCon-) and positive controls (specimens kept in water for 5 days, ZCon+) were also performed. After sintering, the groups were evaluated by X-ray diffraction (XRD), grazing angle X-ray diffraction (DRXR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), contact angle measurements, optical profilometry, biaxial flexural test and shear bonding test. Weibull analysis was used to determine the Weibull modulus (m) and characteristic strength (σ0) of all groups. There were no major changes in strength for the infiltrated group, and homogeneity (m) was also increased. A layer of ZrSiO4 was formed on the surface. The bond strength to resin cement was improved after zirconia infiltration, acid conditioning and the use of an MDP primer. The sol-gel method is an efficient and simple method to increase the homogeneity of zirconia. Infiltration also improved bonding to resin cement. The performance of a zirconia infiltrated by silica gel improved in at least two ways: structural homogeneity and bonding to resin cement. The infiltration is simple to perform and can be easily managed in a prosthesis laboratory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Choice of time-scale in Cox's model analysis of epidemiologic cohort data: a simulation study.

PubMed

Thiébaut, Anne C M; Bénichou, Jacques

2004-12-30

Cox's regression model is widely used for assessing associations between potential risk factors and disease occurrence in epidemiologic cohort studies. Although age is often a strong determinant of disease risk, authors have frequently used time-on-study instead of age as the time-scale, as for clinical trials. Unless the baseline hazard is an exponential function of age, this approach can yield different estimates of relative hazards than using age as the time-scale, even when age is adjusted for. We performed a simulation study in order to investigate the existence and magnitude of bias for different degrees of association between age and the covariate of interest. Age to disease onset was generated from exponential, Weibull or piecewise Weibull distributions, and both fixed and time-dependent dichotomous covariates were considered. We observed no bias upon using age as the time-scale. Upon using time-on-study, we verified the absence of bias for exponentially distributed age to disease onset. For non-exponential distributions, we found that bias could occur even when the covariate of interest was independent from age. It could be severe in case of substantial association with age, especially with time-dependent covariates. These findings were illustrated on data from a cohort of 84,329 French women followed prospectively for breast cancer occurrence. In view of our results, we strongly recommend not using time-on-study as the time-scale for analysing epidemiologic cohort data. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Generalized Reliability Methodology Applied to Brittle Anisotropic Single Crystals. Degree awarded by Washington Univ., 1999

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.

2002-01-01

A generalized reliability model was developed for use in the design of structural components made from brittle, homogeneous anisotropic materials such as single crystals. The model is based on the Weibull distribution and incorporates a variable strength distribution and any equivalent stress failure criteria. In addition to the reliability model, an energy based failure criterion for elastically anisotropic materials was formulated. The model is different from typical Weibull-based models in that it accounts for strength anisotropy arising from fracture toughness anisotropy and thereby allows for strength and reliability predictions of brittle, anisotropic single crystals subjected to multiaxial stresses. The model is also applicable to elastically isotropic materials exhibiting strength anisotropy due to an anisotropic distribution of flaws. In order to develop and experimentally verify the model, the uniaxial and biaxial strengths of a single crystal nickel aluminide were measured. The uniaxial strengths of the <100> and <110> crystal directions were measured in three and four-point flexure. The biaxial strength was measured by subjecting <100> plates to a uniform pressure in a test apparatus that was developed and experimentally verified. The biaxial strengths of the single crystal plates were estimated by extending and verifying the displacement solution for a circular, anisotropic plate to the case of a variable radius and thickness. The best correlation between the experimental strength data and the model predictions occurred when an anisotropic stress analysis was combined with the normal stress criterion and the strength parameters associated with the <110> crystal direction.

A FORTRAN program for multivariate survival analysis on the personal computer.

PubMed

Mulder, P G

1988-01-01

In this paper a FORTRAN program is presented for multivariate survival or life table regression analysis in a competing risks' situation. The relevant failure rate (for example, a particular disease or mortality rate) is modelled as a log-linear function of a vector of (possibly time-dependent) explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may also include the variable time itself, which is useful for parameterizing piecewise exponential time-to-failure distributions in a Gompertz-like or Weibull-like way as a more efficient alternative to Cox's proportional hazards model. Maximum likelihood estimates of the coefficients of the log-linear relationship are obtained from the iterative Newton-Raphson method. The program runs on a personal computer under DOS; running time is quite acceptable, even for large samples.

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate. [in reliability theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canavos, G. C.

1974-01-01

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Quantifying and Modelling the Effect of Cloud Shadows on the Surface Irradiance at Tropical and Midlatitude Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivalov, Sergey N.; Fitzjarrald, David R.

2018-02-01

Cloud shadows lead to alternating light and dark periods at the surface, with the most abrupt changes occurring in the presence of low-level forced cumulus clouds. We examine multiyear irradiance time series observed at a research tower in a midlatitude mixed deciduous forest (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA: 42.53{°}N, 72.17{°}W) and one made at a similar tower in a tropical rain forest (Tapajós National Forest, Pará, Brazil: 2.86{°}S, 54.96{°}W). We link the durations of these periods statistically to conventional meteorological reports of sky type and cloud height at the two forests and present a method to synthesize the surface irradiance time series from sky-type information. Four classes of events describing distinct sequential irradiance changes at the transition from cloud shadow and direct sunlight are identified: sharp-to-sharp, slow-to-slow, sharp-to-slow, and slow-to-sharp. Lognormal and the Weibull statistical distributions distinguish among cloudy-sky types. Observers' qualitative reports of `scattered' and `broken' clouds are quantitatively distinguished by a threshold value of the ratio of mean clear to cloudy period durations. Generated synthetic time series based on these statistics adequately simulate the temporal "radiative forcing" linked to sky type. Our results offer a quantitative way to connect the conventional meteorological sky type to the time series of irradiance experienced at the surface.

Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and found the statistical range of β values. The observed value of β = 0.83 for the CMT catalog corresponds to a p value of p=0.004 leading us to conclude that the interevent natural times in the CMT catalog are not random. For the time series analysis, we calculated the autocorrelation function for the sequence of natural time intervals between large global earthquakes and again compared with data from 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs of random data. In this case, the spread of autocorrelation values was much larger, so we concluded that this approach is insensitive to deviations from random behavior.

Improved Scheduling Mechanisms for Synchronous Information and Energy Transmission.

PubMed

Qin, Danyang; Yang, Songxiang; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Jingya; Ding, Qun

2017-06-09

Wireless energy collecting technology can effectively reduce the network time overhead and prolong the wireless sensor network (WSN) lifetime. However, the traditional energy collecting technology cannot achieve the balance between ergodic channel capacity and average collected energy. In order to solve the problem of the network transmission efficiency and the limited energy of wireless devices, three improved scheduling mechanisms are proposed: improved signal noise ratio (SNR) scheduling mechanism (IS2M), improved N-SNR scheduling mechanism (INS2M) and an improved Equal Throughput scheduling mechanism (IETSM) for different channel conditions to improve the whole network performance. Meanwhile, the average collected energy of single users and the ergodic channel capacity of three scheduling mechanisms can be obtained through the order statistical theory in Rayleig, Ricean, Nakagami- m and Weibull fading channels. It is concluded that the proposed scheduling mechanisms can achieve better balance between energy collection and data transmission, so as to provide a new solution to realize synchronous information and energy transmission for WSNs.

Improved Scheduling Mechanisms for Synchronous Information and Energy Transmission

PubMed Central

Qin, Danyang; Yang, Songxiang; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Jingya; Ding, Qun

2017-01-01

Wireless energy collecting technology can effectively reduce the network time overhead and prolong the wireless sensor network (WSN) lifetime. However, the traditional energy collecting technology cannot achieve the balance between ergodic channel capacity and average collected energy. In order to solve the problem of the network transmission efficiency and the limited energy of wireless devices, three improved scheduling mechanisms are proposed: improved signal noise ratio (SNR) scheduling mechanism (IS2M), improved N-SNR scheduling mechanism (INS2M) and an improved Equal Throughput scheduling mechanism (IETSM) for different channel conditions to improve the whole network performance. Meanwhile, the average collected energy of single users and the ergodic channel capacity of three scheduling mechanisms can be obtained through the order statistical theory in Rayleig, Ricean, Nakagami-m and Weibull fading channels. It is concluded that the proposed scheduling mechanisms can achieve better balance between energy collection and data transmission, so as to provide a new solution to realize synchronous information and energy transmission for WSNs. PMID:28598395

Scaling properties and universality of first-passage-time probabilities in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perelló, Josep; Gutiérrez-Roig, Mario; Masoliver, Jaume

2011-12-01

Financial markets provide an ideal frame for the study of crossing or first-passage time events of non-Gaussian correlated dynamics, mainly because large data sets are available. Tick-by-tick data of six futures markets are herein considered, resulting in fat-tailed first-passage time probabilities. The scaling of the return with its standard deviation collapses the probabilities of all markets examined—and also for different time horizons—into single curves, suggesting that first-passage statistics is market independent (at least for high-frequency data). On the other hand, a very closely related quantity, the survival probability, shows, away from the center and tails of the distribution, a hyperbolic t-1/2 decay typical of a Markovian dynamics, albeit the existence of memory in markets. Modifications of the Weibull and Student distributions are good candidates for the phenomenological description of first-passage time properties under certain regimes. The scaling strategies shown may be useful for risk control and algorithmic trading.

Scale effects in the response and failure of fiber reinforced composite laminates loaded in tension and in flexure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Karen E.; Kellas, Sotiris; Morton, John

1992-01-01

The feasibility of using scale model testing for predicting the full-scale behavior of flat composite coupons loaded in tension and beam-columns loaded in flexure is examined. Classical laws of similitude are applied to fabricate and test replica model specimens to identify scaling effects in the load response, strength, and mode of failure. Experiments were performed on graphite-epoxy composite specimens having different laminate stacking sequences and a range of scaled sizes. From the experiments it was deduced that the elastic response of scaled composite specimens was independent of size. However, a significant scale effect in strength was observed. In addition, a transition in failure mode was observed among scaled specimens of certain laminate stacking sequences. A Weibull statistical model and a fracture mechanics based model were applied to predict the strength scale effect since standard failure criteria cannot account for the influence of absolute specimen size on strength.

Modeling the Monotonic and Cyclic Tensile Stress-Strain Behavior of 2D and 2.5D Woven C/SiC Ceramic-Matrix Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L. B.

2018-05-01

The deformation of 2D and 2.5 C/SiC woven ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) in monotonic and cyclic loadings has been investigated. Statistical matrix multicracking and fiber failure models and the fracture mechanics interface debonding approach are used to determine the spacing of matrix cracks, the debonded length of interface, and the fraction of broken fibers. The effects of fiber volume fraction and fiber Weibull modulus on the damage evolution in the composites and on their tensile stress-strain curves are analyzed. When matrix multicracking and fiber/matrix interface debonding occur, the fiber slippage relative to the matrix in the debonded interface region of the 0° warp yarns is the main reason for the emergance of stress-strain hysteresis loops for 2D and 2.5D woven CMCs. A model of these loops is developed, and histeresis loops for the composites in cyclic loadings/unloadings are predicted.

Effect of fiber addition on slow crack growth of a dental porcelain.

PubMed

de Araújo, Maico Dutra; Miranda, Ranulfo Benedito de Paula; Fredericci, Catia; Yoshimura, Humberto Naoyuki; Cesar, Paulo Francisco

2015-04-01

To evaluate the effect of the processing method (conventional sintering, S, and heat-pressing, HP) and addition of potassium titanate fibers, PTF, on the microstructure, mechanical properties (flexural strength, σf, and Weibull parameters, m and σ5%), slow crack growth parameters n (stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient), and optical properties (translucency parameter, TP, and opalescence index, OI) of a feldsphatic dental porcelain. Disks (n = 240, Ø12 × 1 mm) of porcelain (Vintage-Halo, Shofu) were produced using S and HP methods with and without addition of 10 wt% (conventional sintering) or 5 wt% (heat-pressing) of PTF. For the S method, porcelain was sintered in a conventional furnace. In the HP technique, refractory molds were produced by lost wax technique. The porcelain slurry was dry-pressed (3t/30s) to form a cylinder with 12 mm (diameter) and 20mm (height), which was heat-pressed for 5 min/3.5 bar into the mold. Specimens were tested for biaxial flexural strength in artificial saliva at 37°C. Weibull analysis was used to determine m and σ5%. Slow crack growth (SCG) parameters were determined by the dynamic fatigue test, and specimens were tested in biaxial flexure at five stress rates: 10(-2), 10(-1), 10(0), 10(1) and 10(2)MPa/s (n=10), immersed in artificial saliva at 37°C. Parameter n was calculated and statistically analyzed according to ASTM F394-78. Optical properties were determined in a spectrophotometer in the diffuse reflectance mode. The highest n value was obtained by the combination of heat-pressing with fiber addition (37.1) and this value was significantly higher than those obtained by both sintered groups (26.2 for control group and 27.7 for sintered with fiber). Although heat-pressing alone also resulted in higher n values compared to the sintered groups, there were no significant differences among them. Fiber addition had no effect on mechanical strength, but it resulted in decreased TP values and increased OI values for both processing methods. Heat-pressing alone was able to reduce the porosity level of the porcelain. Addition of PTF combined with heat-pressing can reduce strength degradation of a dental porcelain compared to sintered materials with or without fibers. Heat-pressing (HP) alone should be considered as a good alternative for clinical cases where high translucency is required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting near-ground vortex lifetimes using Weibull density functions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-08

To mitigate safety hazards posed by near-ground vortex lateral transport, under : instrument flight rules (IFR), parallel runway operations must adopt aircraft spacing : standards that often reduce capacity. Once the phenomenon of lateral transport i...

Life and reliability models for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savage, M.; Knorr, R. J.; Coy, J. J.

1982-01-01

Computer models of life and reliability are presented for planetary gear trains with a fixed ring gear, input applied to the sun gear, and output taken from the planet arm. For this transmission the input and output shafts are co-axial and the input and output torques are assumed to be coaxial with these shafts. Thrust and side loading are neglected. The reliability model is based on the Weibull distributions of the individual reliabilities of the in transmission components. The system model is also a Weibull distribution. The load versus life model for the system is a power relationship as the models for the individual components. The load-life exponent and basic dynamic capacity are developed as functions of the components capacities. The models are used to compare three and four planet, 150 kW (200 hp), 5:1 reduction transmissions with 1500 rpm input speed to illustrate their use.

Pectin methyl esterase and natural microflora of fresh mixed orange and carrot juice treated with pulsed electric fields.

PubMed

Rodrigo, D; Barbosa-Cánovas, G V; Martínez, A; Rodrigo, M

2003-12-01

The effects of pulsed electric fields (PEFs) on pectin methyl esterase (PME), molds and yeast, and total flora in fresh (nonpasteurized) mixed orange and carrot juice were studied. The PEF effect was more extensive when juices with high levels of initial PME activity were subjected to treatment and when PEF treatment (at 25 kV/cm for 340 micros) was combined with a moderate temperature (63 degrees C), with the maximum level of PME inactivation being 81.4%. These conditions produced 3.7 decimal reductions in molds and yeast and 2.4 decimal reductions in total flora. Experimental inactivation data for PME, molds and yeast, and total flora were fitted to Bigelow, Hülsheger, and Weibull inactivation models by nonlinear regression. The best fit (lowest mean square error) was obtained with the Weibull model.

Pricing of premiums for equity-linked life insurance based on joint mortality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Parmikanti, K.; Irianingsih, I.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

Life insurance equity - linked is a financial product that not only offers protection, but also investment. The calculation of equity-linked life insurance premiums generally uses mortality tables. Because of advances in medical technology and reduced birth rates, it appears that the use of mortality tables is less relevant in the calculation of premiums. To overcome this problem, we use a combination mortality model which in this study is determined based on Indonesian Mortality table 2011 to determine the chances of death and survival. In this research, we use the Combined Mortality Model of the Weibull, Inverse-Weibull, and Gompertz Mortality Model. After determining the Combined Mortality Model, simulators calculate the value of the claim to be given and the premium price numerically. By calculating equity-linked life insurance premiums well, it is expected that no party will be disadvantaged due to the inaccuracy of the calculation result

Creep test observation of viscoelastic failure of edible fats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vithanage, C. R.; Grimson, M. J.; Smith, B. G.; Wills, P. R.

2011-03-01

A rheological creep test was used to investigate the viscoelastic failure of five edible fats. Butter, spreadable blend and spread were selected as edible fats because they belong to three different groups according to the Codex Alimentarius. Creep curves were analysed according to the Burger model. Results were fitted to a Weibull distribution representing the strain-dependent lifetime of putative fibres in the material. The Weibull shape and scale (lifetime) parameters were estimated for each substance. A comparison of the rheometric measurements of edible fats demonstrated a clear difference between the three different groups. Taken together the results indicate that butter has a lower threshold for mechanical failure than spreadable blend and spread. The observed behaviour of edible fats can be interpreted using a model in which there are two types of bonds between fat crystals; primary bonds that are strong and break irreversibly, and secondary bonds, which are weaker but break and reform reversibly.

Estimation of Slow Crack Growth Parameters for Constant Stress-Rate Test Data of Advanced Ceramics and Glass by the Individual Data and Arithmetic Mean Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Salem, Jonathan A.; Holland, Frederic A.

1997-01-01

The two estimation methods, individual data and arithmetic mean methods, were used to determine the slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n and D) of advanced ceramics and glass from a large number of room- and elevated-temperature constant stress-rate ('dynamic fatigue') test data. For ceramic materials with Weibull modulus greater than 10, the difference in the SCG parameters between the two estimation methods was negligible; whereas, for glass specimens exhibiting Weibull modulus of about 3, the difference was amplified, resulting in a maximum difference of 16 and 13 %, respectively, in n and D. Of the two SCG parameters, the parameter n was more sensitive to the estimation method than the other. The coefficient of variation in n was found to be somewhat greater in the individual data method than in the arithmetic mean method.

Reliability of High-Voltage Tantalum Capacitors. Parts 3 and 4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2010-01-01

Weibull grading test is a powerful technique that allows selection and reliability rating of solid tantalum capacitors for military and space applications. However, inaccuracies in the existing method and non-adequate acceleration factors can result in significant, up to three orders of magnitude, errors in the calculated failure rate of capacitors. This paper analyzes deficiencies of the existing technique and recommends more accurate method of calculations. A physical model presenting failures of tantalum capacitors as time-dependent-dielectric-breakdown is used to determine voltage and temperature acceleration factors and select adequate Weibull grading test conditions. This model is verified by highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperature and voltage conditions for three types of solid chip tantalum capacitors. It is shown that parameters of the model and acceleration factors can be calculated using a general log-linear relationship for the characteristic life with two stress levels.

Experimental investigation of mode I fracture for brittle tube-shaped particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stasiak, Marta; Combe, Gaël; Desrues, Jacques; Richefeu, Vincent; Villard, Pascal; Armand, Gilles; Zghondi, Jad

2017-06-01

We focus herein on the mechanical behavior of highly crushable grains. The object of our interest, named shell, is a hollow cylinder grain with ring cross-section, made of baked clay. The objective is to model the fragmentation of such shells, by means of discrete element (DE) approach. To this end, fracture modes I (opening fracture) and II (in-plane shear fracture) have to be investigated experimentally. This paper is essentially dedicated to mode I fracture. Therefore, a campaign of Brazilian-like compression tests, that result in crack opening, has been performed. The distribution of the occurrence of tensile strength is shown to obey a Weibull distribution for the studied shells, and Weibull's modulus was quantified. Finally, an estimate of the numerical/physical parameters required in a DE model (local strength), is proposed on the basis of the energy required to fracture through a given surface in mode I or II.

Modeling of pathogen survival during simulated gastric digestion.

PubMed

Koseki, Shige; Mizuno, Yasuko; Sotome, Itaru

2011-02-01

The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model of pathogenic bacterial inactivation kinetics in a gastric environment in order to further understand a part of the infectious dose-response mechanism. The major bacterial pathogens Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. were examined by using simulated gastric fluid adjusted to various pH values. To correspond to the various pHs in a stomach during digestion, a modified logistic differential equation model and the Weibull differential equation model were examined. The specific inactivation rate for each pathogen was successfully described by a square-root model as a function of pH. The square-root models were combined with the modified logistic differential equation to obtain a complete inactivation curve. Both the modified logistic and Weibull models provided a highly accurate fitting of the static pH conditions for every pathogen. However, while the residuals plots of the modified logistic model indicated no systematic bias and/or regional prediction problems, the residuals plots of the Weibull model showed a systematic bias. The modified logistic model appropriately predicted the pathogen behavior in the simulated gastric digestion process with actual food, including cut lettuce, minced tuna, hamburger, and scrambled egg. Although the developed model enabled us to predict pathogen inactivation during gastric digestion, its results also suggested that the ingested bacteria in the stomach would barely be inactivated in the real digestion process. The results of this study will provide important information on a part of the dose-response mechanism of bacterial pathogens.

Modeling of Pathogen Survival during Simulated Gastric Digestion ▿

PubMed Central

Koseki, Shige; Mizuno, Yasuko; Sotome, Itaru

2011-01-01

The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model of pathogenic bacterial inactivation kinetics in a gastric environment in order to further understand a part of the infectious dose-response mechanism. The major bacterial pathogens Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella spp. were examined by using simulated gastric fluid adjusted to various pH values. To correspond to the various pHs in a stomach during digestion, a modified logistic differential equation model and the Weibull differential equation model were examined. The specific inactivation rate for each pathogen was successfully described by a square-root model as a function of pH. The square-root models were combined with the modified logistic differential equation to obtain a complete inactivation curve. Both the modified logistic and Weibull models provided a highly accurate fitting of the static pH conditions for every pathogen. However, while the residuals plots of the modified logistic model indicated no systematic bias and/or regional prediction problems, the residuals plots of the Weibull model showed a systematic bias. The modified logistic model appropriately predicted the pathogen behavior in the simulated gastric digestion process with actual food, including cut lettuce, minced tuna, hamburger, and scrambled egg. Although the developed model enabled us to predict pathogen inactivation during gastric digestion, its results also suggested that the ingested bacteria in the stomach would barely be inactivated in the real digestion process. The results of this study will provide important information on a part of the dose-response mechanism of bacterial pathogens. PMID:21131530

The influence of micropore size on the mechanical properties of bulk hydroxyapatite and hydroxyapatite scaffolds.

PubMed

Cordell, Jacqueline M; Vogl, Michelle L; Wagoner Johnson, Amy J

2009-10-01

While recognized as a promising bone substitute material, hydroxyapatite (HA) has had limited use in clinical settings because of its inherent brittle behavior. It is well established that macropores ( approximately 100 microm) in a HA implant, or scaffold, are required for bone ingrowth, but recent research has shown that ingrowth is enhanced when scaffolds also contain microporosity. HA is sensitive to synthesis and processing parameters and therefore characterization for specific applications is necessary for transition to the clinic. To that end, the mechanical behavior of bulk microporous HA and HA scaffolds with multi-scale porosity (macropores between rods in the range of 250-350 microm and micropores within the rods with average size of either 5.96 microm or 16.2 microm) was investigated in order to determine how strength and reliability were affected by micropore size (5.96 microm versus 16.2 microm). For the bulk microporous HA, strength increased with decreasing micropore size in both bending (19 MPa to 22 MPa) and compression (71 MPa to 110 MPa). To determine strength reliability, the Weibull moduli for the bulk microporous HA were determined. The Weibull moduli for bending increased (became more reliable) with decreasing pore size (7 to 10) while the Weibull moduli for compression decreased (became less reliable) with decreasing pore size (9 to 6). Furthermore, the elastic properties of the bulk microporous HA (elastic modulus of 30 GPa) and the compressive strengths of the HA scaffolds with multi-scale porosity (8 MPa) did not vary with pore size. The mechanisms responsible for the trends observed were discussed.

An investigation into the use of surface waves for the real-time inspection of polymer composites during fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linstrom, Elizabeth Jane

A new approach to the nondestructive evaluation of polymer matrix/graphite fiber composites is presented. This technique permits the determination of the top ply bond strength of a laminate based on the results of ultrasonic testing. This technique is designed to be used for the real-time, nondestructive evaluation of composites during tape laying. By separately bonding the top ply of thermoset and thermoplastic polymer composite laminates, a poor ply bond was achieved solely at the interface of the top ply and the rest of the laminate. Using angled incidence, a 5 MHz, 4 musecond ultrasonic pulse was induced into the composite samples. This created waves traveling along the surface of the composite samples that were picked up by a receiving transducer. The received signal was cross-correlated with an artificially constructed replica of the input signal. The maximum amplitude of the cross-correlated signal was recorded. The cross-correlated signal was then converted to the frequency spectra using a fast Fourier transform. The maximum amplitude of the frequency spectra was then recorded. These measurements were repeated at 18 to 30 different locations on each composite sample. The resulting collection of maximum amplitudes of cross-correlated signals and frequency spectra were fit to two parameter Weibull distributions. The composite samples were destructively evaluated using a flat-wise tensile test. The B-basis values of the ultrasonic data Weibull distributions were compared to the B-basis values of the Weibull distribution of the strength data. A good correlation was found.

Weibull Multiplicative Model and Machine Learning Models for Full-Automatic Dark-Spot Detection from SAR Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taravat, A.; Del Frate, F.

2013-09-01

As a major aspect of marine pollution, oil release into the sea has serious biological and environmental impacts. Among remote sensing systems (which is a tool that offers a non-destructive investigation method), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can provide valuable synoptic information about the position and size of the oil spill due to its wide area coverage and day/night, and all-weather capabilities. In this paper we present a new automated method for oil-spill monitoring. A new approach is based on the combination of Weibull Multiplicative Model and machine learning techniques to differentiate between dark spots and the background. First, the filter created based on Weibull Multiplicative Model is applied to each sub-image. Second, the sub-image is segmented by two different neural networks techniques (Pulsed Coupled Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks). As the last step, a very simple filtering process is used to eliminate the false targets. The proposed approaches were tested on 20 ENVISAT and ERS2 images which contained dark spots. The same parameters were used in all tests. For the overall dataset, the average accuracies of 94.05 % and 95.20 % were obtained for PCNN and MLP methods, respectively. The average computational time for dark-spot detection with a 256 × 256 image in about 4 s for PCNN segmentation using IDL software which is the fastest one in this field at present. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very fast, robust and effective. The proposed approach can be applied to the future spaceborne SAR images.