Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences.

PubMed

Cade, Brian S

2015-09-01

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the t statistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2015-01-01

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the tstatistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

A Divergence Median-based Geometric Detector with A Weighted Averaging Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Xiaoqiang; Cheng, Yongqiang; Li, Yubo; Wang, Hongqiang; Qin, Yuliang

2018-01-01

To overcome the performance degradation of the classical fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based constant false alarm rate detector with the limited sample data, a divergence median-based geometric detector on the Riemannian manifold of Heimitian positive definite matrices is proposed in this paper. In particular, an autocorrelation matrix is used to model the correlation of sample data. This method of the modeling can avoid the poor Doppler resolution as well as the energy spread of the Doppler filter banks result from the FFT. Moreover, a weighted averaging filter, conceived from the philosophy of the bilateral filtering in image denoising, is proposed and combined within the geometric detection framework. As the weighted averaging filter acts as the clutter suppression, the performance of the geometric detector is improved. Numerical experiments are given to validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Texture and haptic cues in slant discrimination: reliability-based cue weighting without statistically optimal cue combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosas, Pedro; Wagemans, Johan; Ernst, Marc O.; Wichmann, Felix A.

2005-05-01

A number of models of depth-cue combination suggest that the final depth percept results from a weighted average of independent depth estimates based on the different cues available. The weight of each cue in such an average is thought to depend on the reliability of each cue. In principle, such a depth estimation could be statistically optimal in the sense of producing the minimum-variance unbiased estimator that can be constructed from the available information. Here we test such models by using visual and haptic depth information. Different texture types produce differences in slant-discrimination performance, thus providing a means for testing a reliability-sensitive cue-combination model with texture as one of the cues to slant. Our results show that the weights for the cues were generally sensitive to their reliability but fell short of statistically optimal combination - we find reliability-based reweighting but not statistically optimal cue combination.

An Interactive Multi-Model for Consensus on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kocarev, Ljupco

This project purports to develop a new scheme for forming consensus among alternative climate models, that give widely divergent projections as to the details of climate change, that is more intelligent than simply averaging the model outputs, or averaging with ex post facto weighting factors. The method under development effectively allows models to assimilate data from one another in run time with weights that are chosen in an adaptive training phase using 20th century data, so that the models synchronize with one another as well as with reality. An alternate approach that is being explored in parallel is the automatedmore » combination of equations from different models in an expert-system-like framework.« less

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

PubMed

Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

2015-01-01

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs for obese adults rise more rapidly with aging relative to normal weight adults.

In-use activity, fuel use, and emissions of heavy-duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks.

PubMed

Sandhu, Gurdas S; Frey, H Christopher; Bartelt-Hunt, Shannon; Jones, Elizabeth

2015-03-01

The objectives of this study were to quantify real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions for heavy duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks; evaluate the contribution of duty cycles and emissions controls to variability in cycle average fuel use and emission rates; quantify the effect of vehicle weight on fuel use and emission rates; and compare empirical cycle average emission rates with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES emission factor model predictions. Measurements were made at 1 Hz on six trucks of model years 2005 to 2012, using onboard systems. The trucks traveled 870 miles, had an average speed of 16 mph, and collected 165 tons of trash. The average fuel economy was 4.4 mpg, which is approximately twice previously reported values for residential trash collection trucks. On average, 50% of time is spent idling and about 58% of emissions occur in urban areas. Newer trucks with selective catalytic reduction and diesel particulate filter had NOx and PM cycle average emission rates that were 80% lower and 95% lower, respectively, compared to older trucks without. On average, the combined can and trash weight was about 55% of chassis weight. The marginal effect of vehicle weight on fuel use and emissions is highest at low loads and decreases as load increases. Among 36 cycle average rates (6 trucks×6 cycles), MOVES-predicted values and estimates based on real-world data have similar relative trends. MOVES-predicted CO2 emissions are similar to those of the real world, while NOx and PM emissions are, on average, 43% lower and 300% higher, respectively. The real-world data presented here can be used to estimate benefits of replacing old trucks with new trucks. Further, the data can be used to improve emission inventories and model predictions. In-use measurements of the real-world activity, fuel use, and emissions of heavy-duty diesel roll-off refuse trucks can be used to improve the accuracy of predictive models, such as MOVES, and emissions inventories. Further, the activity data from this study can be used to generate more representative duty cycles for more accurate chassis dynamometer testing. Comparisons of old and new model year diesel trucks are useful in analyzing the effect of fleet turnover. The analysis of effect of haul weight on fuel use can be used by fleet managers to optimize operations to reduce fuel cost.

Node-based measures of connectivity in genetic networks.

PubMed

Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Wilson, Paul J

2016-01-01

At-site environmental conditions can have strong influences on genetic connectivity, and in particular on the immigration and settlement phases of dispersal. However, at-site processes are rarely explored in landscape genetic analyses. Networks can facilitate the study of at-site processes, where network nodes are used to model site-level effects. We used simulated genetic networks to compare and contrast the performance of 7 node-based (as opposed to edge-based) genetic connectivity metrics. We simulated increasing node connectivity by varying migration in two ways: we increased the number of migrants moving between a focal node and a set number of recipient nodes, and we increased the number of recipient nodes receiving a set number of migrants. We found that two metrics in particular, the average edge weight and the average inverse edge weight, varied linearly with simulated connectivity. Conversely, node degree was not a good measure of connectivity. We demonstrated the use of average inverse edge weight to describe the influence of at-site habitat characteristics on genetic connectivity of 653 American martens (Martes americana) in Ontario, Canada. We found that highly connected nodes had high habitat quality for marten (deep snow and high proportions of coniferous and mature forest) and were farther from the range edge. We recommend the use of node-based genetic connectivity metrics, in particular, average edge weight or average inverse edge weight, to model the influences of at-site habitat conditions on the immigration and settlement phases of dispersal. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Relationship between air pollution exposure during pregnancy and birth weight of term singleton live-birth newborns].

PubMed

Guo, L Q; Zhang, Q; Zhao, D D; Wang, L L; Chen, Y; Mi, B B; Dang, S N; Yan, H

2017-10-10

Objective: This study explored the association between air pollution exposure and birth weight by using the multilevel linear model, after controlling related meteorological factors and individual differences of both mothers and babies. Methods: Women of childbearing age who were pregnant in Xi'an from 2010 to 2013, were selected as objects of this study. Multistage random sampling method was used to select 4 631 subjects followed by a self-designed questionnaire survey. Data related to quality of air and meteorology were gathered from routine monitoring system. Gestational age and date of birth, together with the average levels of air pollution were calculated for each trimester on each mother, and then the impact of air pollution on birth weight was assessed. A multilevel linear model was employed to investigate the association between the levels of exposure to air pollution by birth weight. Confounding factors were under control. We established three models in this study: Model 1 which involving the variable of air pollution exposure. Model 2 was adjusted for variables in Model 1 plus some other individual differences of both mother and baby. Model 3 was adjusted for variables in Model 2 plus meteorological factors. Results: There were significant differences seen in birth weight within the subgroups of gender, gestational age, mother's reproductive age, maternal education, residential areas and family incomes ( P <0.01) of the infants. However, there was no difference found in Model 1 ( P >0.05). Data from Model 3 indicated that a decrease of 13.3 g(10.9 g in Model 2) and 6.6 g (5.9 g in Model 2) in birth weight that were associated with an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in the average level of NO(2) and PM(10) during the second trimester; A decrease of 13.7 g (9.8 g in Model 2) in birth weight was associated with an increase of 10 μg/m(3) in the average level of NO(2) during the third trimester. Conclusion: After controlling for meteorological factors, the levels of exposure to NO(2) and PM(10) during the second trimester and NO(2) during the third trimester were negatively associated with birth weight.

Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hui; Zhou, Feng; Piao, Shilong; Huang, Mengtian; Chen, Anping; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Yue; Lian, Xu; Peng, Shushi; Zeng, Zhenzhong

2017-06-01

In the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, multimodel ensembles (arithmetic model averaging, AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.8 ± 1.5%) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.2 ± 1.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the intermodel difference. The intermodel difference in runoff changes is mainly caused not only by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.

Real Diffusion-Weighted MRI Enabling True Signal Averaging and Increased Diffusion Contrast

PubMed Central

Eichner, Cornelius; Cauley, Stephen F; Cohen-Adad, Julien; Möller, Harald E; Turner, Robert; Setsompop, Kawin; Wald, Lawrence L

2015-01-01

This project aims to characterize the impact of underlying noise distributions on diffusion-weighted imaging. The noise floor is a well-known problem for traditional magnitude-based diffusion-weighted MRI (dMRI) data, leading to biased diffusion model fits and inaccurate signal averaging. Here, we introduce a total-variation-based algorithm to eliminate shot-to-shot phase variations of complex-valued diffusion data with the intention to extract real-valued dMRI datasets. The obtained real-valued diffusion data are no longer superimposed by a noise floor but instead by a zero-mean Gaussian noise distribution, yielding dMRI data without signal bias. We acquired high-resolution dMRI data with strong diffusion weighting and, thus, low signal-to-noise ratio. Both the extracted real-valued and traditional magnitude data were compared regarding signal averaging, diffusion model fitting and accuracy in resolving crossing fibers. Our results clearly indicate that real-valued diffusion data enables idealized conditions for signal averaging. Furthermore, the proposed method enables unbiased use of widely employed linear least squares estimators for model fitting and demonstrates an increased sensitivity to detect secondary fiber directions with reduced angular error. The use of phase-corrected, real-valued data for dMRI will therefore help to clear the way for more detailed and accurate studies of white matter microstructure and structural connectivity on a fine scale. PMID:26241680

Funding issues for Victorian hospitals: the risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix funding.

PubMed

Antioch, K; Walsh, M

2000-01-01

This paper discusses casemix funding issues in Victoria impacting on teaching hospitals. For casemix payments to be acceptable, the average price and cost weights must be set at an appropriate standard. The average price is based on a normative, policy basis rather than benchmarking. The 'averaging principle' inherent in cost weights has resulted in some AN-DRG weights being too low for teaching hospitals that are key State-wide providers of high complexity services such as neurosurgery and trauma. Casemix data have been analysed using international risk adjustment methodologies to successfully negotiate with the Victorian State Government for specified grants for several high complexity AN-DRGs. A risk-adjusted capitation funding model has also been developed for cystic fibrosis patients treated by The Alfred, called an Australian Health Maintenance Organisation (AHMO). This will facilitate the development of similar models by both the Victorian and Federal governments.

Quaternion Averaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis; Cheng, Yang; Crassidis, John L.; Oshman, Yaakov

2007-01-01

Many applications require an algorithm that averages quaternions in an optimal manner. For example, when combining the quaternion outputs of multiple star trackers having this output capability, it is desirable to properly average the quaternions without recomputing the attitude from the the raw star tracker data. Other applications requiring some sort of optimal quaternion averaging include particle filtering and multiple-model adaptive estimation, where weighted quaternions are used to determine the quaternion estimate. For spacecraft attitude estimation applications, derives an optimal averaging scheme to compute the average of a set of weighted attitude matrices using the singular value decomposition method. Focusing on a 4-dimensional quaternion Gaussian distribution on the unit hypersphere, provides an approach to computing the average quaternion by minimizing a quaternion cost function that is equivalent to the attitude matrix cost function Motivated by and extending its results, this Note derives an algorithm that deterniines an optimal average quaternion from a set of scalar- or matrix-weighted quaternions. Rirthermore, a sufficient condition for the uniqueness of the average quaternion, and the equivalence of the mininiization problem, stated herein, to maximum likelihood estimation, are shown.

The development of preferences for specific body shapes.

PubMed

Connolly, Jennifer M; Slaughter, Virginia; Mealey, Linda

2004-02-01

Research with adults has shown a preference for average-weight female figures with waist-to-hip ratios (WHR) of 0.7, and average weight male figures with waist-to-hip ratios of 0.9. This study investigated the development of preferences for WHR sizes as well as preferences for specific body weights. Five-hundred eleven children ranging in age from 6 to 17 were presented with drawings of 12 male and 12 female silhouettes varying in weight and WHR and asked to select one they thought looked the nicest or most attractive. The youngest children showed preferences for the underweight figures, changing to consistent preferences for the average weight figures in the teenage years. The developmental curves for waist-to-hip ratio preferences were linear, changing gradually over time to become more adult-like. Potential developmental models for the development of preferences for specific body shapes are considered in relation to these data.

On the Likely Utility of Hybrid Weights Optimized for Variances in Hybrid Error Covariance Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satterfield, E.; Hodyss, D.; Kuhl, D.; Bishop, C. H.

2017-12-01

Because of imperfections in ensemble data assimilation schemes, one cannot assume that the ensemble covariance is equal to the true error covariance of a forecast. Previous work demonstrated how information about the distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance can be revealed from an archive of (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs. Here, we derive a simple and intuitively compelling formula to obtain the mean of this distribution of true error variances given an ensemble sample variance from (observation-minus-forecast, ensemble-variance) data pairs produced by a single run of a data assimilation system. This formula takes the form of a Hybrid weighted average of the climatological forecast error variance and the ensemble sample variance. Here, we test the extent to which these readily obtainable weights can be used to rapidly optimize the covariance weights used in Hybrid data assimilation systems that employ weighted averages of static covariance models and flow-dependent ensemble based covariance models. Univariate data assimilation and multi-variate cycling ensemble data assimilation are considered. In both cases, it is found that our computationally efficient formula gives Hybrid weights that closely approximate the optimal weights found through the simple but computationally expensive process of testing every plausible combination of weights.

The Weighted-Average Lagged Ensemble.

PubMed

DelSole, T; Trenary, L; Tippett, M K

2017-11-01

A lagged ensemble is an ensemble of forecasts from the same model initialized at different times but verifying at the same time. The skill of a lagged ensemble mean can be improved by assigning weights to different forecasts in such a way as to maximize skill. If the forecasts are bias corrected, then an unbiased weighted lagged ensemble requires the weights to sum to one. Such a scheme is called a weighted-average lagged ensemble. In the limit of uncorrelated errors, the optimal weights are positive and decay monotonically with lead time, so that the least skillful forecasts have the least weight. In more realistic applications, the optimal weights do not always behave this way. This paper presents a series of analytic examples designed to illuminate conditions under which the weights of an optimal weighted-average lagged ensemble become negative or depend nonmonotonically on lead time. It is shown that negative weights are most likely to occur when the errors grow rapidly and are highly correlated across lead time. The weights are most likely to behave nonmonotonically when the mean square error is approximately constant over the range forecasts included in the lagged ensemble. An extreme example of the latter behavior is presented in which the optimal weights vanish everywhere except at the shortest and longest lead times.

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of outcome- and process-based social preferences and beliefs in Dictator Games and sequential Prisoner's Dilemmas.

PubMed

Aksoy, Ozan; Weesie, Jeroen

2014-05-01

In this paper, using a within-subjects design, we estimate the utility weights that subjects attach to the outcome of their interaction partners in four decision situations: (1) binary Dictator Games (DG), second player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) after the first player (2) cooperated and (3) defected, and (4) first player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma game. We find that the average weights in these four decision situations have the following order: (1)>(2)>(4)>(3). Moreover, the average weight is positive in (1) but negative in (2), (3), and (4). Our findings indicate the existence of strong negative and small positive reciprocity for the average subject, but there is also high interpersonal variation in the weights in these four nodes. We conclude that the PD frame makes subjects more competitive than the DG frame. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we simultaneously analyze beliefs of subjects about others' utility weights in the same four decision situations. We compare several alternative theoretical models on beliefs, e.g., rational beliefs (Bayesian-Nash equilibrium) and a consensus model. Our results on beliefs strongly support the consensus effect and refute rational beliefs: there is a strong relationship between own preferences and beliefs and this relationship is relatively stable across the four decision situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of estimators for rolling samples using Forest Inventory and Analysis data

Treesearch

Devin S. Johnson; Michael S. Williams; Raymond L. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

The performance of three classes of weighted average estimators is studied for an annual inventory design similar to the Forest Inventory and Analysis program of the United States. The first class is based on an ARIMA(0,1,1) time series model. The equal weight, simple moving average is a member of this class. The second class is based on an ARIMA(0,2,2) time series...

Development of Non-Optimum Factors for Launch Vehicle Propellant Tank Bulkhead Weight Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, K. Chauncey; Wallace, Matthew L.; Cerro, Jeffrey A.

2012-01-01

Non-optimum factors are used during aerospace conceptual and preliminary design to account for the increased weights of as-built structures due to future manufacturing and design details. Use of higher-fidelity non-optimum factors in these early stages of vehicle design can result in more accurate predictions of a concept s actual weights and performance. To help achieve this objective, non-optimum factors are calculated for the aluminum-alloy gores that compose the ogive and ellipsoidal bulkheads of the Space Shuttle Super-Lightweight Tank propellant tanks. Minimum values for actual gore skin thicknesses and weld land dimensions are extracted from selected production drawings, and are used to predict reference gore weights. These actual skin thicknesses are also compared to skin thicknesses predicted using classical structural mechanics and tank proof-test pressures. Both coarse and refined weights models are developed for the gores. The coarse model is based on the proof pressure-sized skin thicknesses, and the refined model uses the actual gore skin thicknesses and design detail dimensions. To determine the gore non-optimum factors, these reference weights are then compared to flight hardware weights reported in a mass properties database. When manufacturing tolerance weight estimates are taken into account, the gore non-optimum factors computed using the coarse weights model range from 1.28 to 2.76, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.90. Application of the refined weights model yields non-optimum factors between 1.00 and 1.50, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.14. To demonstrate their use, these calculated non-optimum factors are used to predict heavier, more realistic gore weights for a proposed heavy-lift launch vehicle s propellant tank bulkheads. These results indicate that relatively simple models can be developed to better estimate the actual weights of large structures for future launch vehicles.

Bayes factors and multimodel inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Multimodel inference has two main themes: model selection, and model averaging. Model averaging is a means of making inference conditional on a model set, rather than on a selected model, allowing formal recognition of the uncertainty associated with model choice. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework for model averaging, and provides a context for evaluation of the commonly used AIC weights. We review Bayesian multimodel inference, noting the importance of Bayes factors. Noting the sensitivity of Bayes factors to the choice of priors on parameters, we define and propose nonpreferential priors as offering a reasonable standard for objective multimodel inference.

Parameter regionalisation methods for a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model: application to a Northern Apennine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, Mattia; Toth, Elena

2017-04-01

The study presents the implementation of different regionalisation approaches for the transfer of model parameters from similar and/or neighbouring gauged basin to an ungauged catchment, and in particular it uses a semi-distributed continuously-simulating conceptual rainfall-runoff model for simulating daily streamflows. The case study refers to a set of Apennine catchments (in the Emilia-Romagna region, Italy), that, given the spatial proximity, are assumed to belong to the same hydrologically homogeneous region and are used, alternatively, as donors and regionalised basins. The model is a semi-distributed version of the HBV model (TUWien model) in which the catchment is divided in zones of different altitude that contribute separately to the total outlet flow. The model includes a snow module, whose application in the Apennine area has been, so far, very limited, even if snow accumulation and melting phenomena do have an important role in the study basins. Two methods, both widely applied in the recent literature, are applied for regionalising the model: i) "parameters averaging", where each parameter is obtained as a weighted mean of the parameters obtained, through calibration, on the donor catchments ii) "output averaging", where the model is run over the ungauged basin using the entire set of parameters of each donor basin and the simulated outputs are then averaged. In the first approach, the parameters are regionalised independently from each other, in the second one, instead, the correlation among the parameters is maintained. Since the model is a semi-distributed one, where each elevation zone contributes separately, the study proposes to test also a modified version of the second approach ("output averaging"), where each zone is considered as an autonomous entity, whose parameters are transposed to the ungauged sub-basin corresponding to the same elevation zone. The study explores also the choice of the weights to be used for averaging the parameters (in the "parameters averaging" approach) or for averaging the simulated streamflow (in the "output averaging" approach): in particular, weights are estimated as a function of the similarity/distance of the ungauged basin/zone to the donors, on the basis of a set of geo-morphological catchment descriptors. The predictive accuracy of the different regionalisation methods is finally assessed by jack-knife cross-validation against the observed daily runoff for all the study catchments.

[Contact characteristics research of acetabular weight-bearing area with different internal fixation methods after compression fracture of acetabular dome].

PubMed

Xu, Bowen; Zhang, Qingsong; An, Siqi; Pei, Baorui; Wu, Xiaobo

2017-08-01

To establish the model of compression fracture of acetabular dome, and to measure the contact characteristics of acetabular weight-bearing area of acetabulum after 3 kinds of internal fixation. Sixteen fresh adult half pelvis specimens were randomly divided into 4 groups, 4 specimens each group. Group D was the complete acetabulum (control group), and the remaining 3 groups were prepared acetabular dome compression fracture model. The fractures were fixed with reconstruction plate in group A, antegrade raft screws in group B, and retrograde raft screws in group C. The pressure sensitive films were attached to the femoral head, and the axial compression test was carried out on the inverted single leg standing position. The weight-bearing area, average stress, and peak stress were measured in each group. Under the loading of 500 N, the acetabular weight-bearing area was significantly higher in group D than in other 3 groups ( P <0.05), and the average stress and peak stress were significantly lower than in other 3 groups ( P <0.05). The acetabular weight-bearing area were significantly higher in group B and group C than in group A, and the average stress and peak stress were significantly lower than in group A ( P <0.05). There was no significant difference in the above indexes between group B and group C ( P >0.05). For the compression fracture of the acetabular dome, the contact characteristics of the weight-bearing area can not restore to the normal level, even if the anatomical reduction and rigid internal fixation were performed; compared with the reconstruction plate fixation, antegrade and retrograde raft screws fixations can increase the weight-bearing area, reduce the average stress and peak stress, and reduce the incidence of traumatic arthritis.

Cardiometabolic risk after weight loss and subsequent weight regain in overweight and obese postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Beavers, Daniel P; Beavers, Kristen M; Lyles, Mary F; Nicklas, Barbara J

2013-06-01

Little is known about the effect of intentional weight loss and subsequent weight regain on cardiometabolic risk factors in older adults. The objective of this study was to determine how cardiometabolic risk factors change in the year following significant intentional weight loss in postmenopausal women, and if observed changes were affected by weight and fat regain. Eighty, overweight and obese, older women (age = 58.8±5.1 years) were followed through a 5-month weight loss intervention and a subsequent 12-month nonintervention period. Body weight/composition and cardiometabolic risk factors (blood pressure; total, high-density lipoprotein, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; triglycerides; fasting glucose and insulin; and Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance) were analyzed at baseline, immediately postintervention, and 6- and 12-months postintervention. Average weight loss during the 5-month intervention was 11.4±4.1kg and 31.4% of lost weight was regained during the 12-month follow-up. On average, all risk factor variables were significantly improved with weight loss but regressed toward baseline values during the year subsequent to weight loss. Increases in total cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, insulin, and Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance during the postintervention follow-up were significantly (p < .05) associated with weight and fat mass regain. Among women who regained weight, model-adjusted total cholesterol (205.8±4.0 vs 199.7±2.9mg/dL), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (128.4±3.4 vs 122.7±2.4mg/dL), insulin (12.6±0.7 vs 11.4±0.7mg/dL), and Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (55.8±3.5 vs 50.9±3.7mg/dL) were higher at follow-up compared with baseline. For postmenopausal women, even partial weight regain following intentional weight loss is associated with increased cardiometabolic risk. Conversely, maintenance of or continued weight loss is associated with sustained improvement in the cardiometabolic profile.

Evaluation of Observation-Fused Regional Air Quality Model Results for Population Air Pollution Exposure Estimation

PubMed Central

Chen, Gang; Li, Jingyi; Ying, Qi; Sherman, Seth; Perkins, Neil; Rajeshwari, Sundaram; Mendola, Pauline

2014-01-01

In this study, Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to predict ambient gaseous and particulate concentrations during 2001 to 2010 in 15 hospital referral regions (HRRs) using a 36-km horizontal resolution domain. An inverse distance weighting based method was applied to produce exposure estimates based on observation-fused regional pollutant concentration fields using the differences between observations and predictions at grid cells where air quality monitors were located. Although the raw CMAQ model is capable of producing satisfying results for O3 and PM2.5 based on EPA guidelines, using the observation data fusing technique to correct CMAQ predictions leads to significant improvement of model performance for all gaseous and particulate pollutants. Regional average concentrations were calculated using five different methods: 1) inverse distance weighting of observation data alone, 2) raw CMAQ results, 3) observation-fused CMAQ results, 4) population-averaged raw CMAQ results and 5) population-averaged fused CMAQ results. It shows that while O3 (as well as NOx) monitoring networks in the HRR regions are dense enough to provide consistent regional average exposure estimation based on monitoring data alone, PM2.5 observation sites (as well as monitors for CO, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 components) are usually sparse and the difference between the average concentrations estimated by the inverse distance interpolated observations, raw CMAQ and fused CMAQ results can be significantly different. Population-weighted average should be used to account spatial variation in pollutant concentration and population density. Using raw CMAQ results or observations alone might lead to significant biases in health outcome analyses. PMID:24747248

Effects of correlations and fees in random multiplicative environments: Implications for portfolio management.

PubMed

Alper, Ofer; Somekh-Baruch, Anelia; Pirvandy, Oz; Schaps, Malka; Yaari, Gur

2017-08-01

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is frequently used to model price dynamics of financial assets, and a weighted average of multiple GBMs is commonly used to model a financial portfolio. Diversified portfolios can lead to an increased exponential growth compared to a single asset by effectively reducing the effective noise. The sum of GBM processes is no longer a log-normal process and has a complex statistical properties. The nonergodicity of the weighted average process results in constant degradation of the exponential growth from the ensemble average toward the time average. One way to stay closer to the ensemble average is to maintain a balanced portfolio: keep the relative weights of the different assets constant over time. To keep these proportions constant, whenever assets values change, it is necessary to rebalance their relative weights, exposing this strategy to fees (transaction costs). Two strategies that were suggested in the past for cases that involve fees are rebalance the portfolio periodically and rebalance it in a partial way. In this paper, we study these two strategies in the presence of correlations and fees. We show that using periodic and partial rebalance strategies, it is possible to maintain a steady exponential growth while minimizing the losses due to fees. We also demonstrate how these redistribution strategies perform in a phenomenal way on real-world market data, despite the fact that not all assumptions of the model hold in these real-world systems. Our results have important implications for stochastic dynamics in general and to portfolio management in particular, as we show that there is a superior alternative to the common buy-and-hold strategy, even in the presence of correlations and fees.

Effects of correlations and fees in random multiplicative environments: Implications for portfolio management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alper, Ofer; Somekh-Baruch, Anelia; Pirvandy, Oz; Schaps, Malka; Yaari, Gur

2017-08-01

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is frequently used to model price dynamics of financial assets, and a weighted average of multiple GBMs is commonly used to model a financial portfolio. Diversified portfolios can lead to an increased exponential growth compared to a single asset by effectively reducing the effective noise. The sum of GBM processes is no longer a log-normal process and has a complex statistical properties. The nonergodicity of the weighted average process results in constant degradation of the exponential growth from the ensemble average toward the time average. One way to stay closer to the ensemble average is to maintain a balanced portfolio: keep the relative weights of the different assets constant over time. To keep these proportions constant, whenever assets values change, it is necessary to rebalance their relative weights, exposing this strategy to fees (transaction costs). Two strategies that were suggested in the past for cases that involve fees are rebalance the portfolio periodically and rebalance it in a partial way. In this paper, we study these two strategies in the presence of correlations and fees. We show that using periodic and partial rebalance strategies, it is possible to maintain a steady exponential growth while minimizing the losses due to fees. We also demonstrate how these redistribution strategies perform in a phenomenal way on real-world market data, despite the fact that not all assumptions of the model hold in these real-world systems. Our results have important implications for stochastic dynamics in general and to portfolio management in particular, as we show that there is a superior alternative to the common buy-and-hold strategy, even in the presence of correlations and fees.

A Behavioral Weight Reduction Model for Moderately Mentally Retarded Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rotatori, Anthony F.; And Others

1980-01-01

A behavioral weight reduction treatment and maintenance program for moderately mentally retarded adolescents which involves six phases from background information collection to followup relies on stimulus control procedures to modify eating behaviors. Data from pilot studies show an average weekly weight loss of .5 to 1 pound per S. (CL)

Generation of Comprehensive Surrogate Kinetic Models and Validation Databases for Simulating Large Molecular Weight Hydrocarbon Fuels

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-25

of hydrogen/ carbon molar ratio (H/C), derived cetane number (DCN), threshold sooting index (TSI), and average mean molecular weight (MWave) of...diffusive soot extinction configurations. Matching the “real fuel combustion property targets” of hydrogen/ carbon molar ratio (H/C), derived cetane number...combustion property targets - hydrogen/ carbon molar ratio (H/C), derived cetane number (DCN), threshold sooting index (TSI), and average mean

Average receiving scaling of the weighted polygon Koch networks with the weight-dependent walk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Dandan; Dai, Meifeng; Sun, Yanqiu; Shao, Shuxiang; Xie, Qi

2016-09-01

Based on the weighted Koch networks and the self-similarity of fractals, we present a family of weighted polygon Koch networks with a weight factor r(0 < r ≤ 1) . We study the average receiving time (ART) on weight-dependent walk (i.e., the walker moves to any of its neighbors with probability proportional to the weight of edge linking them), whose key step is to calculate the sum of mean first-passage times (MFPTs) for all nodes absorpt at a hub node. We use a recursive division method to divide the weighted polygon Koch networks in order to calculate the ART scaling more conveniently. We show that the ART scaling exhibits a sublinear or linear dependence on network order. Thus, the weighted polygon Koch networks are more efficient than expended Koch networks in receiving information. Finally, compared with other previous studies' results (i.e., Koch networks, weighted Koch networks), we find out that our models are more general.

Close Combat Missile Methodology Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-14

Modeling: Industrial Applications of DEX.” Informatica 23 (1999): 487-491. Bohanec, Marko, Blaz Zupan, and Vladislav Rajkovic. “Applications of...Lisec. “Multi-attribute Decision Analysis in GIS: Weighted Linear Combination and Ordered Weighted Averaging.” Informatica 33, (1999): 459- 474

Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

Characteristics of Line 1 Hereford females resulting from selection by independent culling levels for below-average birth weight and high yearling weight or by mass selection for high yearling weight.

PubMed

MacNeil, M D; Urick, J J; Decoudu, G

2000-09-01

Simultaneous selection for low birth weight and high yearling weight has been advocated to improve efficiency of beef production. Two sublines of Line 1 Hereford cattle were established by selection either for below-average birth weight and high yearling weight (YB) or for high yearling weight alone (YW). Direct effects on birth weight and yearling weight diverged between sublines with approximately four generations of selection. The objective of this study was to estimate genetic trends for traits of the cows. A three-parameter growth curve [Wt = A(1 - b0e(-kt))] was fitted to age (t, d)-weight (W, kg) data for cows surviving past 4.5 yr of age (n = 738). The resulting parameter estimates were analyzed simultaneously with birth weight and yearling weight using multiple-trait restricted maximum likelihood methods. To estimate maternal additive effects on calf gain from birth to weaning (MILK) the two-trait model previously used to analyze birth weight and yearling weight was transformed to the equivalent three-trait model with birth weight, gain from birth to weaning, and gain from weaning to yearling as dependent variables. Heritability estimates were 0.32, 0.27, 0.10, and 0.20 for A, b0, k, and MILK, respectively. Genetic correlations with direct effects on birth weight were 0.34, -0.11, and 0.55 and with direct effects on yearling weight were 0.65, -0.17, and 0.11 for A, b0, and k, respectively. Genetic trends for YB and YW, respectively, were as follows: A (kg/generation), 8.0+/-0.2 and 10.1+/-0.2; b0 (x 1,000), -1.34+/-0.07 and -1.16+/-0.07; k (x 1,000), -14.3+/-0.1 and 4.3+/-0.1; and MILK (kg), 1.25+/-0.05 and 1.89+/-0.05. Beef cows resulting from simultaneous selection for below-average birth weight and increased yearling weight had different growth curves and reduced genetic trend in maternal gain from birth to weaning relative to cows resulting from selection for increased yearling weight.

An estimation of Canadian population exposure to cosmic rays.

PubMed

Chen, Jing; Timmins, Rachel; Verdecchia, Kyle; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2009-08-01

The worldwide average exposure to cosmic rays contributes to about 16% of the annual effective dose from natural radiation sources. At ground level, doses from cosmic ray exposure depend strongly on altitude, and weakly on geographical location and solar activity. With the analytical model PARMA developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, annual effective doses due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level were calculated for more than 1,500 communities across Canada which cover more than 85% of the Canadian population. The annual effective doses from cosmic ray exposure in the year 2000 during solar maximum ranged from 0.27 to 0.72 mSv with the population-weighted national average of 0.30 mSv. For the year 2006 during solar minimum, the doses varied between 0.30 and 0.84 mSv, and the population-weighted national average was 0.33 mSv. Averaged over solar activity, the Canadian population-weighted average annual effective dose due to cosmic ray exposure at ground level is estimated to be 0.31 mSv.

Molecular weight kinetics and chain scission models for dextran polymers during ultrasonic degradation.

PubMed

Pu, Yuanyuan; Zou, Qingsong; Hou, Dianzhi; Zhang, Yiping; Chen, Shan

2017-01-20

Ultrasonic degradation of six dextran samples with different initial molecular weights (IMW) has been performed to investigate the degradation behavior and chain scission mechanism of dextrans. The weight-average molecular weight (Mw) and polydispersity index (D value) were monitored by High Performance Gel Permeation Chromatography (HPGPC). Results showed that Mw and D value decreased with increasing ultrasonic time, resulting in a more homologous dextran solution with lower molecular weight. A significant degradation occurred in dextrans with higher IMW, particularly at the initial stage of the ultrasonic treatment. The Malhotra model was found to well describe the molecular weight kinetics for all dextran samples. Experimental data was fitted into two chain scission models to study dextran chain scission mechanism and the model performance was compared. Results indicated that the midpoint scission model agreed well with experimental results, with a linear regression factor of R 2 >0.99. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking Measures of Network Controllability on Canonical Graph Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu-Yan, Elena; Betzel, Richard F.; Tang, Evelyn; Gu, Shi; Pasqualetti, Fabio; Bassett, Danielle S.

2018-03-01

The control of networked dynamical systems opens the possibility for new discoveries and therapies in systems biology and neuroscience. Recent theoretical advances provide candidate mechanisms by which a system can be driven from one pre-specified state to another, and computational approaches provide tools to test those mechanisms in real-world systems. Despite already having been applied to study network systems in biology and neuroscience, the practical performance of these tools and associated measures on simple networks with pre-specified structure has yet to be assessed. Here, we study the behavior of four control metrics (global, average, modal, and boundary controllability) on eight canonical graphs (including Erdős-Rényi, regular, small-world, random geometric, Barábasi-Albert preferential attachment, and several modular networks) with different edge weighting schemes (Gaussian, power-law, and two nonparametric distributions from brain networks, as examples of real-world systems). We observe that differences in global controllability across graph models are more salient when edge weight distributions are heavy-tailed as opposed to normal. In contrast, differences in average, modal, and boundary controllability across graph models (as well as across nodes in the graph) are more salient when edge weight distributions are less heavy-tailed. Across graph models and edge weighting schemes, average and modal controllability are negatively correlated with one another across nodes; yet, across graph instances, the relation between average and modal controllability can be positive, negative, or nonsignificant. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that controllability statistics (and their relations) differ across graphs with different topologies and that these differences can be muted or accentuated by differences in the edge weight distributions. More generally, our numerical studies motivate future analytical efforts to better understand the mathematical underpinnings of the relationship between graph topology and control, as well as efforts to design networks with specific control profiles.

Comparative studies on growth traits of Sanga and Friesian-Sanga crossbred calves raised on natural pasture on the Accra Plains of Ghana.

PubMed

Sottie, E T; Darfour-Oduro, K A; Okantah, S A

2009-03-01

Data collected from 1993 to 2006 at the Animal Research Institute of Ghana was used to compare the performance of Sanga and Friesian-Sanga crossbred calves on natural pasture. Performance traits analyzed were birth weight (BWT), weaning weight adjusted to 210 days (WW7), preweaning average daily gain to 210 days (ADG 1), weight at 12 months adjusted to 365 days (W12), weight at 18 months adjusted to 540 days (W18) and postweaning average daily gain (ADG 2, from weaning to 540 days). Effects in the model describing these traits were breed, season, sex and first-order interactions between these effects. With the exception of heavier birth weight of Friesian-Sanga crossbred calves (19.98 kg vs. 19.18 kg), body weights of Sangas at weaning, 12 months and 18 months exceeded those of the Friesian-Sanga crossbred calves by 3.76 kg, 35.06 kg and 46.24 kg respectively. The Sangas were also superior in preweaning average daily gain (0.35 kg/day vs. 0.26 kg/day) and postweaning average daily gain (0.28 kg/day vs. 0.21 kg/day). There was a tendency of increasing weight difference between the two breeds with advancing age. It was suggested that improved nutrition such as supplementary feeding would be necessary for crossbreds to express their potential for growth.

Modelling audiovisual integration of affect from videos and music.

PubMed

Gao, Chuanji; Wedell, Douglas H; Kim, Jongwan; Weber, Christine E; Shinkareva, Svetlana V

2018-05-01

Two experiments examined how affective values from visual and auditory modalities are integrated. Experiment 1 paired music and videos drawn from three levels of valence while holding arousal constant. Experiment 2 included a parallel combination of three levels of arousal while holding valence constant. In each experiment, participants rated their affective states after unimodal and multimodal presentations. Experiment 1 revealed a congruency effect in which stimulus combinations of the same extreme valence resulted in more extreme state ratings than component stimuli presented in isolation. An interaction between music and video valence reflected the greater influence of negative affect. Video valence was found to have a significantly greater effect on combined ratings than music valence. The pattern of data was explained by a five parameter differential weight averaging model that attributed greater weight to the visual modality and increased weight with decreasing values of valence. Experiment 2 revealed a congruency effect only for high arousal combinations and no interaction effects. This pattern was explained by a three parameter constant weight averaging model with greater weight for the auditory modality and a very low arousal value for the initial state. These results demonstrate key differences in audiovisual integration between valence and arousal.

40 CFR 86.1865-12 - How to comply with the fleet average CO2 standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... different strategies are and why they are used. (i) Calculating the fleet average carbon-related exhaust emissions. (1) Manufacturers must compute separate production-weighted fleet average carbon-related exhaust... as defined in § 86.1818-12. The model type carbon-related exhaust emission results determined...

40 CFR 86.1865-12 - How to comply with the fleet average CO2 standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... different strategies are and why they are used. (i) Calculating the fleet average carbon-related exhaust emissions. (1) Manufacturers must compute separate production-weighted fleet average carbon-related exhaust... as defined in § 86.1818-12. The model type carbon-related exhaust emission results determined...

40 CFR 86.1865-12 - How to comply with the fleet average CO2 standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... different strategies are and why they are used. (i) Calculating the fleet average carbon-related exhaust emissions. (1) Manufacturers must compute separate production-weighted fleet average carbon-related exhaust... as defined in § 86.1818-12. The model type carbon-related exhaust emission results determined...

Designing and evaluating the MULTICOM protein local and global model quality prediction methods in the CASP10 experiment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Protein model quality assessment is an essential component of generating and using protein structural models. During the Tenth Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP10), we developed and tested four automated methods (MULTICOM-REFINE, MULTICOM-CLUSTER, MULTICOM-NOVEL, and MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT) that predicted both local and global quality of protein structural models. Results MULTICOM-REFINE was a clustering approach that used the average pairwise structural similarity between models to measure the global quality and the average Euclidean distance between a model and several top ranked models to measure the local quality. MULTICOM-CLUSTER and MULTICOM-NOVEL were two new support vector machine-based methods of predicting both the local and global quality of a single protein model. MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT was a new weighted pairwise model comparison (clustering) method that used the weighted average similarity between models in a pool to measure the global model quality. Our experiments showed that the pairwise model assessment methods worked better when a large portion of models in the pool were of good quality, whereas single-model quality assessment methods performed better on some hard targets when only a small portion of models in the pool were of reasonable quality. Conclusions Since digging out a few good models from a large pool of low-quality models is a major challenge in protein structure prediction, single model quality assessment methods appear to be poised to make important contributions to protein structure modeling. The other interesting finding was that single-model quality assessment scores could be used to weight the models by the consensus pairwise model comparison method to improve its accuracy. PMID:24731387

Designing and evaluating the MULTICOM protein local and global model quality prediction methods in the CASP10 experiment.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Wang, Zheng; Cheng, Jianlin

2014-04-15

Protein model quality assessment is an essential component of generating and using protein structural models. During the Tenth Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP10), we developed and tested four automated methods (MULTICOM-REFINE, MULTICOM-CLUSTER, MULTICOM-NOVEL, and MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT) that predicted both local and global quality of protein structural models. MULTICOM-REFINE was a clustering approach that used the average pairwise structural similarity between models to measure the global quality and the average Euclidean distance between a model and several top ranked models to measure the local quality. MULTICOM-CLUSTER and MULTICOM-NOVEL were two new support vector machine-based methods of predicting both the local and global quality of a single protein model. MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT was a new weighted pairwise model comparison (clustering) method that used the weighted average similarity between models in a pool to measure the global model quality. Our experiments showed that the pairwise model assessment methods worked better when a large portion of models in the pool were of good quality, whereas single-model quality assessment methods performed better on some hard targets when only a small portion of models in the pool were of reasonable quality. Since digging out a few good models from a large pool of low-quality models is a major challenge in protein structure prediction, single model quality assessment methods appear to be poised to make important contributions to protein structure modeling. The other interesting finding was that single-model quality assessment scores could be used to weight the models by the consensus pairwise model comparison method to improve its accuracy.

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging.

PubMed

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-04-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment.

Accounting for occurrences: an explanation for some novel tendencies in causal judgment from contingency information.

PubMed

White, Peter A

2009-06-01

Contingency information is information about empirical associations between possible causes and outcomes. In the present research, it is shown that, under some circumstances, there is a tendency for negative contingencies to lead to positive causal judgments and for positive contingencies to lead to negative causal judgments. If there is a high proportion of instances in which a candidate cause (CC) being judged is present, these tendencies are predicted by weighted averaging models of causal judgment. If the proportion of such instances is low, the predictions of weighted averaging models break down. It is argued that one of the main aims of causal judgment is to account for occurrences of the outcome. Thus, a CC is not given a high causal judgment if there are few or no occurrences of it, regardless of the objective contingency. This argument predicts that, if there is a low proportion of instances in which a CC is present, causal judgments are determined mainly by the number of Cell A instances (i.e., CC present, outcome occurs), and that this explains why weighted averaging models fail to predict judgmental tendencies under these circumstances. Experimental results support this argument.

The pitch of short-duration fundamental frequency glissandos.

PubMed

d'Alessandro, C; Rosset, S; Rossi, J P

1998-10-01

Pitch perception for short-duration fundamental frequency (F0) glissandos was studied. In the first part, new measurements using the method of adjustment are reported. Stimuli were F0 glissandos centered at 220 Hz. The parameters under study were: F0 glissando extents (0, 0.8, 1.5, 3, 6, and 12 semitones, i.e., 0, 10.17, 18.74, 38.17, 76.63, and 155.56 Hz), F0 glissando durations (50, 100, 200, and 300 ms), F0 glissando directions (rising or falling), and the extremity of F0 glissandos matched (beginning or end). In the second part, the main results are discussed: (1) perception seems to correspond to an average of the frequencies present in the vicinity of the extremity matched; (2) the higher extremities of the glissando seem more important; (3) adjustments at the end are closer to the extremities than adjustments at the beginning. In the third part, numerical models accounting for the experimental data are proposed: a time-average model and a weighted time-average model. Optimal parameters for these models are derived. The weighted time-average model achieves a 94% accurate prediction rate for the experimental data. The numerical model is successful in predicting the pitch of short-duration F0 glissandos.

[General growth patterns and simple mathematic models of height and weight of Chinese children].

PubMed

Zong, Xin-nan; Li, Hui

2009-05-01

To explore the growth patterns and simple mathematic models of height and weight of Chinese children. The original data had been obtained from two national representative cross-sectional surveys which were 2005 National Survey of Physical Development of Children (under 7 years of age) and 2005 Chinese National Survey on Students Constitution and Health (6 - 18 years). Reference curves of height and weight of children under 7 years of age was constructed by LMS method, and data of children from 6 to 18 years of age were smoothed by cubic spline function and transformed by modified LMS procedure. Growth velocity was calculated by smoothed values of height and weight. Simple linear model was fitted for children 1 to 10 years of age, for which smoothed height and weight values were used. (1) Birth length of Chinese children was about 50 cm, average length 61 cm, 67 cm, 76 cm and 88 cm at the 3rd, 6th, 12th and 24th month. Height gain was stable from 2 to 10 years of age, average 6 - 7 cm each year. Birth length doubles by 3.5 years, and triples by 12 years. The formula estimating average height of normal children aged 2 - 10 years was, height (cm) = age (yr) x 6.5 + 76 (cm). (2) Birth weight was about 3.3 kg. Growth velocity was at peak about 1.0 - 1.1 kg/mon in the first 3 months, decreased by half and was about 0.5 - 0.6 kg/mon in the second 3 months, and was reduced by a quarter, which was about 0.25 - 0.30 kg/mon, in the last 6 months of the first year. Body mass was up to doubles, triples and quadruple of birth weight at about the 3rd, 12th and 24th month. Average annual gain was about 2 kg and 3 kg from 1 - 6 years and 7 - 10 years, respectively. The estimated formula for children 1 to 6 years of age was weight (kg) = age (yr) x 2 + 8 (kg), but for those 7 - 10 years old, weight (kg) = age (yr) x 3 + 2 (kg). Growth patterns of height and weight at the different age stages were summarized for Chinese children, and simple reference data of height and weight velocity from 0 to 18 years and approximate estimation formula from 1 - 10 years was presented for clinical practice.

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

76 FR 28947 - Bus Testing: Calculation of Average Passenger Weight and Test Vehicle Weight, and Public Meeting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-19

...-0015] RIN 2132-AB01 Bus Testing: Calculation of Average Passenger Weight and Test Vehicle Weight, and... of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) regarding the calculation of average passenger weights and test vehicle... passenger weights and actual transit vehicle loads. Specifically, FTA proposed to change the average...

Understanding diversity–stability relationships: towards a unified model of portfolio effects

PubMed Central

Thibaut, Loïc M; Connolly, Sean R; He, Fangliang

2013-01-01

A major ecosystem effect of biodiversity is to stabilise assemblages that perform particular functions. However, diversity–stability relationships (DSRs) are analysed using a variety of different population and community properties, most of which are adopted from theory that makes several restrictive assumptions that are unlikely to be reflected in nature. Here, we construct a simple synthesis and generalisation of previous theory for the DSR. We show that community stability is a product of two quantities: the synchrony of population fluctuations, and an average species-level population stability that is weighted by relative abundance. Weighted average population stability can be decomposed to consider effects of the mean-variance scaling of abundance, changes in mean abundance with diversity and differences in species' mean abundance in monoculture. Our framework makes explicit how unevenness in the abundances of species in real communities influences the DSR, which occurs both through effects on community synchrony, and effects on weighted average population variability. This theory provides a more robust framework for analysing the results of empirical studies of the DSR, and facilitates the integration of findings from real and model communities. PMID:23095077

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging

PubMed Central

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-01-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment. PMID:19381329

Weighted south-wide average pulpwood prices

Treesearch

James E. Granskog; Kevin D. Growther

1991-01-01

Weighted average prices provide a more accurate representation of regional pulpwood price trends when production volumes valy widely by state. Unweighted South-wide average delivered prices for pulpwood, as reported by Timber Mart-South, were compared to average annual prices weighted by each state's pulpwood production from 1977 to 1986. Weighted average prices...

Scaling of Average Weighted Receiving Time on Double-Weighted Koch Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Meifeng; Ye, Dandan; Hou, Jie; Li, Xingyi

2015-03-01

In this paper, we introduce a model of the double-weighted Koch networks based on actual road networks depending on the two weight factors w,r ∈ (0, 1]. The double weights represent the capacity-flowing weight and the cost-traveling weight, respectively. Denote by wFij the capacity-flowing weight connecting the nodes i and j, and denote by wCij the cost-traveling weight connecting the nodes i and j. Let wFij be related to the weight factor w, and let wCij be related to the weight factor r. This paper assumes that the walker, at each step, starting from its current node, moves to any of its neighbors with probability proportional to the capacity-flowing weight of edge linking them. The weighted time for two adjacency nodes is the cost-traveling weight connecting the two nodes. We define the average weighted receiving time (AWRT) on the double-weighted Koch networks. The obtained result displays that in the large network, the AWRT grows as power-law function of the network order with the exponent, represented by θ(w,r) = ½ log2(1 + 3wr). We show that the AWRT exhibits a sublinear or linear dependence on network order. Thus, the double-weighted Koch networks are more efficient than classic Koch networks in receiving information.

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

You can be too thin (but not too tall): Social desirability bias in self-reports of weight and height.

PubMed

Burke, Mary A; Carman, Katherine G

2017-11-01

Previous studies of survey data from the U.S. and other countries find that women tend to understate their body weight on average, while both men and women overstate their height on average. Social norms have been posited as one potential explanation for misreporting of weight and height, but lack of awareness of body weight has been suggested as an alternative explanation, and the evidence presented to date is inconclusive. This paper is the first to offer a theoretical model of self-reporting behavior for weight and height, in which individuals face a tradeoff between reporting an accurate weight (or height) and reporting a socially desirable weight (or height). The model generates testable implications that help us to determine whether self-reporting errors arise because of social desirability bias or instead reflect lack of awareness of body weight and/or other factors. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2010, we find that self-reports of weight offer robust evidence of social desirability bias. However, lack of awareness of weight may also contribute to self-reporting biases, and this factor appears to be more important within some demographic groups than others. Among both women and men, self-reports of height exhibit significant social desirability bias only among those of below-average height, and very few individuals underreport their height. Implied self-reports of BMI exhibit gender-specific patterns similar to those observed for self-reporting of weight, and the inferred social norms for BMI (20.8 for women and 24.8 for men) are within the "normal" range established by public health institutions. Determining why individuals misreport their weight has important implications for survey design as well as for clinical practice. For example, our findings suggest that health care providers might take additional steps to increase self-awareness of body weight. The framework also helps to explain previous findings that the degree of self-reporting bias in weight is stronger in telephone surveys than it is in in-person surveys. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Jack Pine and Aspen Forest Floors in Northeastern Minnesota

Treesearch

Robert M. Loomis

1977-01-01

Characteristics of upland forest floors under mature jack pine and aspen in northeastern Minnesota were investigated. These fuel measurements were needed as inputs for fire behavior prediction models -- useful for fire management decisions. The forest floor weight averaged 33,955 kg/ha and depth averaged 7.1 cm. Bulk density averaged 17 kg/m3 for the L (litter)...

Estimating geographic variation on allometric growth and body condition of Blue Suckers with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Terrell, J.W.; Neely, B.C.

2011-01-01

Increasing our understanding of how environmental factors affect fish body condition and improving its utility as a metric of aquatic system health require reliable estimates of spatial variation in condition (weight at length). We used three statistical approaches that varied in how they accounted for heterogeneity in allometric growth to estimate differences in body condition of blue suckers Cycleptus elongatus across 19 large-river locations in the central USA. Quantile regression of an expanded allometric growth model provided the most comprehensive estimates, including variation in exponents within and among locations (range = 2.88–4.24). Blue suckers from more-southerly locations had the largest exponents. Mixed-effects mean regression of a similar expanded allometric growth model allowed exponents to vary among locations (range = 3.03–3.60). Mean relative weights compared across selected intervals of total length (TL = 510–594 and 594–692 mm) in a multiplicative model involved the implicit assumption that allometric exponents within and among locations were similar to the exponent (3.46) for the standard weight equation. Proportionate differences in the quantiles of weight at length for adult blue suckers (TL = 510, 594, 644, and 692 mm) compared with their average across locations ranged from 1.08 to 1.30 for southern locations (Texas, Mississippi) and from 0.84 to 1.00 for northern locations (Montana, North Dakota); proportionate differences for mean weight ranged from 1.13 to 1.17 and from 0.87 to 0.95, respectively, and those for mean relative weight ranged from 1.10 to 1.18 and from 0.86 to 0.98, respectively. Weights for fish at longer lengths varied by 600–700 g within a location and by as much as 2,000 g among southern and northern locations. Estimates for the Wabash River, Indiana (0.96–1.07 times the average; greatest increases for lower weights at shorter TLs), and for the Missouri River from Blair, Nebraska, to Sioux City, Iowa (0.90–1.00 times the average; greatest decreases for lower weights at longer TLs), were examined in detail to explain the additional information provided by quantile estimates.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-02-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23%, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (-61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

Trajectories of physical growth and personality dimensions of the Five-Factor Model.

PubMed

Lahti, Marius; Räikkönen, Katri; Lemola, Sakari; Lahti, Jari; Heinonen, Kati; Kajantie, Eero; Pesonen, Anu-Katriina; Osmond, Clive; Barker, David J P; Eriksson, Johan G

2013-07-01

Although physical growth in early life is associated with the risk of somatic illnesses and psychological disorders in adulthood, few studies have focused upon the associations between growth and dimensional personality traits. We examined the associations between pre- and postnatal growth in height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) and Five-Factor Model dimensions in adulthood. From the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study, 1,682 participants completed the NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI) at an average age of 63 years. Growth estimates were derived based on medical records. Adjusting for gestational length and sociodemographic variables, birth weight showed a quadratic association with neuroticism; participants with low birth weight scored the highest on neuroticism. Larger ponderal index at birth predicted higher agreeableness, while average ponderal index predicted higher conscientiousness. BMI and weight growth trajectories from birth to adulthood were associated with agreeableness and conscientiousness. More specifically, less BMI and weight gain between 7 and 11 years and/or between 11 years and adulthood were associated with higher conscientiousness and higher agreeableness. Height and weight growth trajectories from birth to adulthood were associated with extraversion: faster height and weight growth between birth and 6 months, slower height growth between 7 and 11 years, and faster weight gain between 11 years and adulthood were associated with higher extraversion. Openness to experience was not associated with growth. This longitudinal study supports an association between pre- and postnatal physical growth and 4 of the Five-Factor Model personality dimensions in adulthood. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Global carbon assimilation system using a local ensemble Kalman filter with multiple ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shupeng; Yi, Xue; Zheng, Xiaogu; Chen, Zhuoqi; Dan, Bo; Zhang, Xuanze

2014-11-01

In this paper, a global carbon assimilation system (GCAS) is developed for optimizing the global land surface carbon flux at 1° resolution using multiple ecosystem models. In GCAS, three ecosystem models, Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach, and Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange, produce the prior fluxes, and an atmospheric transport model, Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers, is used to calculate atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from these prior fluxes. A local ensemble Kalman filter is developed to assimilate atmospheric CO2 data observed at 92 stations to optimize the carbon flux for six land regions, and the Bayesian model averaging method is implemented in GCAS to calculate the weighted average of the optimized fluxes based on individual ecosystem models. The weights for the models are found according to the closeness of their forecasted CO2 concentration to observation. Results of this study show that the model weights vary in time and space, allowing for an optimum utilization of different strengths of different ecosystem models. It is also demonstrated that spatial localization is an effective technique to avoid spurious optimization results for regions that are not well constrained by the atmospheric data. Based on the multimodel optimized flux from GCAS, we found that the average global terrestrial carbon sink over the 2002-2008 period is 2.97 ± 1.1 PgC yr-1, and the sinks are 0.88 ± 0.52, 0.27 ± 0.33, 0.67 ± 0.39, 0.90 ± 0.68, 0.21 ± 0.31, and 0.04 ± 0.08 PgC yr-1 for the North America, South America, Africa, Eurasia, Tropical Asia, and Australia, respectively. This multimodel GCAS can be used to improve global carbon cycle estimation.

Multi-criteria, personalized route planning using quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadi, S.; Delavar, M. R.

2011-06-01

This paper presents a generic model for using different decision strategies in multi-criteria, personalized route planning. Some researchers have considered user preferences in navigation systems. However, these prior studies typically employed a high tradeoff decision strategy, which used a weighted linear aggregation rule, and neglected other decision strategies. The proposed model integrates a pairwise comparison method and quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) aggregation operators to form a personalized route planning method that incorporates different decision strategies. The model can be used to calculate the impedance of each link regarding user preferences in terms of the route criteria, criteria importance and the selected decision strategy. Regarding the decision strategy, the calculated impedance lies between aggregations that use a logical "and" (which requires all the criteria to be satisfied) and a logical "or" (which requires at least one criterion to be satisfied). The calculated impedance also includes taking the average of the criteria scores. The model results in multiple alternative routes, which apply different decision strategies and provide users with the flexibility to select one of them en-route based on the real world situation. The model also defines the robust personalized route under different decision strategies. The influence of different decision strategies on the results are investigated in an illustrative example. This model is implemented in a web-based geographical information system (GIS) for Isfahan in Iran and verified in a tourist routing scenario. The results demonstrated, in real world situations, the validity of the route planning carried out in the model.

40 CFR 63.5710 - How do I demonstrate compliance using emissions averaging?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) NATIONAL EMISSION STANDARDS FOR HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS FOR SOURCE CATEGORIES National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Boat Manufacturing Standards for Open... section to compute the weighted-average MACT model point value for each open molding resin and gel coat...

Factors associated with feed intake of Angus steers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Estimates of variance components were obtained from 475 records of average (AFI) and residual feed intake (RFI). Covariates in various (8) models included average daily gain (G), age (A) and weight (W) on test, and slaughter (S) and ultrasound (U) carcass measures (fat thickness, ribeye area and ma...

Model averaging techniques for quantifying conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Singh, Abhishek; Mishra, Srikanta; Ruskauff, Greg

2010-01-01

In recent years a growing understanding has emerged regarding the need to expand the modeling paradigm to include conceptual model uncertainty for groundwater models. Conceptual model uncertainty is typically addressed by formulating alternative model conceptualizations and assessing their relative likelihoods using statistical model averaging approaches. Several model averaging techniques and likelihood measures have been proposed in the recent literature for this purpose with two broad categories--Monte Carlo-based techniques such as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation or GLUE (Beven and Binley 1992) and criterion-based techniques that use metrics such as the Bayesian and Kashyap Information Criteria (e.g., the Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging or MLBMA approach proposed by Neuman 2003) and Akaike Information Criterion-based model averaging (AICMA) (Poeter and Anderson 2005). These different techniques can often lead to significantly different relative model weights and ranks because of differences in the underlying statistical assumptions about the nature of model uncertainty. This paper provides a comparative assessment of the four model averaging techniques (GLUE, MLBMA with KIC, MLBMA with BIC, and AIC-based model averaging) mentioned above for the purpose of quantifying the impacts of model uncertainty on groundwater model predictions. Pros and cons of each model averaging technique are examined from a practitioner's perspective using two groundwater modeling case studies. Recommendations are provided regarding the use of these techniques in groundwater modeling practice.

Investigating DRG cost weights for hospitals in middle income countries.

PubMed

Ghaffari, Shahram; Doran, Christopher; Wilson, Andrew; Aisbett, Chris; Jackson, Terri

2009-01-01

Identifying the cost of hospital outputs, particularly acute inpatients measured by Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), is an important component of casemix implementation. Measuring the relative costliness of specific DRGs is useful for a wide range of policy and planning applications. Estimating the relative use of resources per DRG can be done through different costing approaches depending on availability of information and time and budget. This study aims to guide costing efforts in Iran and other countries in the region that are pursuing casemix funding, through identifying the main issues facing cost finding approaches and introducing the costing models compatible with their hospitals accounting and management structures. The results show that inadequate financial and utilisation information at the patient's level, poorly computerized 'feeder systems'; and low quality data make it impossible to estimate reliable DRGs costs through clinical costing. A cost modelling approach estimates the average cost of 2.723 million Rials (Iranian Currency) per DRG. Using standard linear regression, a coefficient of 0.14 (CI = 0.12-0.16) suggests that the average cost weight increases by 14% for every one-day increase in average length of stay (LOS).We concluded that calculation of DRG cost weights (CWs) using Australian service weights provides a sensible starting place for DRG-based hospital management; but restructuring hospital accounting systems, designing computerized feeder systems, using appropriate software, and development of national service weights that reflect local practice patterns will enhance the accuracy of DRG CWs.

Model-based intensification of a fed-batch microbial process for the maximization of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) production rate.

PubMed

Penloglou, Giannis; Vasileiadou, Athina; Chatzidoukas, Christos; Kiparissides, Costas

2017-08-01

An integrated metabolic-polymerization-macroscopic model, describing the microbial production of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) in Azohydromonas lata bacteria, was developed and validated using a comprehensive series of experimental measurements. The model accounted for biomass growth, biopolymer accumulation, carbon and nitrogen sources utilization, oxygen mass transfer and uptake rates and average molecular weights of the accumulated PHB, produced under batch and fed-batch cultivation conditions. Model predictions were in excellent agreement with experimental measurements. The validated model was subsequently utilized to calculate optimal operating conditions and feeding policies for maximizing PHB productivity for desired PHB molecular properties. More specifically, two optimal fed-batch strategies were calculated and experimentally tested: (1) a nitrogen-limited fed-batch policy and (2) a nitrogen sufficient one. The calculated optimal operating policies resulted in a maximum PHB content (94% g/g) in the cultivated bacteria and a biopolymer productivity of 4.2 g/(l h), respectively. Moreover, it was demonstrated that different PHB grades with weight average molecular weights of up to 1513 kg/mol could be produced via the optimal selection of bioprocess operating conditions.

Spatial Interpretation of Tower, Chamber and Modelled Terrestrial Fluxes in a Tropical Forest Plantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whidden, E.; Roulet, N.

2003-04-01

Interpretation of a site average terrestrial flux may be complicated in the presence of inhomogeneities. Inhomogeneity may invalidate the basic assumptions of aerodynamic flux measurement. Chamber measurement may miss or misinterpret important temporal or spatial anomalies. Models may smooth over important nonlinearities depending on the scale of application. Although inhomogeneity is usually seen as a design problem, many sites have spatial variance that may have a large impact on net flux, and in many cases a large homogeneous surface is unrealistic. The sensitivity and validity of a site average flux are investigated in the presence of an inhomogeneous site. Directional differences are used to evaluate the validity of aerodynamic methods and the computation of a site average tower flux. Empirical and modelling methods are used to interpret the spatial controls on flux. An ecosystem model, Ecosys, is used to assess spatial length scales appropriate to the ecophysiologic controls. A diffusion model is used to compare tower, chamber, and model data, by spatially weighting contributions within the tower footprint. Diffusion model weighting is also used to improve tower flux estimates by producing footprint averaged ecological parameters (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc.). Although uncertainty remains in the validity of measurement methods and the accuracy of diffusion models, a detailed spatial interpretation is required at an inhomogeneous site. Flux estimation between methods improves with spatial interpretation, showing the importance to an estimation of a site average flux. Small-scale temporal and spatial anomalies may be relatively unimportant to overall flux, but accounting for medium-scale differences in ecophysiological controls is necessary. A combination of measurements and modelling can be used to define the appropriate time and length scales of significant non-linearity due to inhomogeneity.

Spatial feature analysis of a cosmic-ray sensor for measuring the soil water content: Comparison of four weighting methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jingya; Pang, Zhiguo; Fu, Jun'e.

2018-04-01

To quantitatively analyze the spatial features of a cosmic-ray sensor (CRS) (i.e., the measurement support volume of the CRS and the weight of the in situ point-scale soil water content (SWC) in terms of the regionally averaged SWC derived from the CRS) in measuring the SWC, cooperative observations based on CRS, oven drying and frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) methods are performed at the point and regional scales in a desert steppe area of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This region is flat with sparse vegetation cover consisting of only grass, thereby minimizing the effects of terrain and vegetation. Considering the two possibilities of the measurement support volume of the CRS, the results of four weighting methods are compared with the SWC monitored by FDR within an appropriate measurement support volume. The weighted average calculated using the neutron intensity-based weighting method (Ni weighting method) best fits the regionally averaged SWC measured by the CRS. Therefore, we conclude that the gyroscopic support volume and the weights determined by the Ni weighting method are the closest to the actual spatial features of the CRS when measuring the SWC. Based on these findings, a scale transformation model of the SWC from the point scale to the scale of the CRS measurement support volume is established. In addition, the spatial features simulated using the Ni weighting method are visualized by developing a software system.

Using Avatars to Model Weight Loss Behaviors: Participant Attitudes and Technology Development

PubMed Central

Napolitano, Melissa A.; Hayes, Sharon; Russo, Giuseppe; Muresu, Debora; Giordano, Antonio; Foster, Gary D.

2013-01-01

Background: Virtual reality and other avatar-based technologies are potential methods for demonstrating and modeling weight loss behaviors. This study examined avatar-based technology as a tool for modeling weight loss behaviors. Methods: This study consisted of two phases: (1) an online survey to obtain feedback about using avatars for modeling weight loss behaviors and (2) technology development and usability testing to create an avatar-based technology program for modeling weight loss behaviors. Results: Results of phase 1 (n = 128) revealed that interest was high, with 88.3% stating that they would participate in a program that used an avatar to help practice weight loss skills in a virtual environment. In phase 2, avatars and modules to model weight loss skills were developed. Eight women were recruited to participate in a 4-week usability test, with 100% reporting they would recommend the program and that it influenced their diet/exercise behavior. Most women (87.5%) indicated that the virtual models were helpful. After 4 weeks, average weight loss was 1.6 kg (standard deviation = 1.7). Conclusion: This investigation revealed a high level of interest in an avatar-based program, with formative work indicating promise. Given the high costs associated with in vivo exposure and practice, this study demonstrates the potential use of avatar-based technology as a tool for modeling weight loss behaviors. PMID:23911189

Spatial Assessment of Model Errors from Four Regression Techniques

Treesearch

Lianjun Zhang; Jeffrey H. Gove; Jeffrey H. Gove

2005-01-01

Fomst modelers have attempted to account for the spatial autocorrelations among trees in growth and yield models by applying alternative regression techniques such as linear mixed models (LMM), generalized additive models (GAM), and geographicalIy weighted regression (GWR). However, the model errors are commonly assessed using average errors across the entire study...

Upgrades to the REA method for producing probabilistic climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

We present an augmented version of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method designed to generate probabilistic climate change information from ensembles of climate model simulations. Compared to the original version, the augmented one includes consideration of multiple variables and statistics in the calculation of the performance-based weights. In addition, the model convergence criterion previously employed is removed. The method is applied to the calculation of changes in mean and variability for temperature and precipitation over different sub-regions of East Asia based on the recently completed CMIP3 multi-model ensemble. Comparison of the new and old REA methods, along with the simple averaging procedure, and the use of different combinations of performance metrics shows that at fine sub-regional scales the choice of weighting is relevant. This is mostly because the models show a substantial spread in performance for the simulation of precipitation statistics, a result that supports the use of model weighting as a useful option to account for wide ranges of quality of models. The REA method, and in particular the upgraded one, provides a simple and flexible framework for assessing the uncertainty related to the aggregation of results from ensembles of models in order to produce climate change information at the regional scale. KEY WORDS: REA method, Climate change, CMIP3

An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

Our empirical results show that we can predict GDP growth rate more accurately in continent with fewer large economies, compared to smaller economies like Malaysia. This difficulty is very likely positively correlated with subsidy or social security policies. The stage of economic development and level of competiveness also appears to have interactive effects on this forecast stability. These results are generally independent of the forecasting procedures. Countries with high stability in their economic growth, forecasting by model selection is better than model averaging. Overall forecast weight averaging (FWA) is a better forecasting procedure in most countries. FWA also outperforms simple model averaging (SMA) and has the same forecasting ability as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in almost all countries.

Learning and adaptation in the management of waterfowl harvests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.

2011-01-01

A formal framework for the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests was adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. The process admits competing models of waterfowl population dynamics and harvest impacts, and relies on model averaging to compute optimal strategies for regulating harvest. Model weights, reflecting the relative ability of the alternative models to predict changes in population size, are used in the model averaging and are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and observations of population size. Since its inception the adaptive harvest program has focused principally on mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), which constitute a large portion of the U.S. waterfowl harvest. Four competing models, derived from a combination of two survival and two reproductive hypotheses, were originally assigned equal weights. In the last year of available information (2007), model weights favored the weakly density-dependent reproductive hypothesis over the strongly density-dependent one, and the additive mortality hypothesis over the compensatory one. The change in model weights led to a more conservative harvesting policy than what was in effect in the early years of the program. Adaptive harvest management has been successful in many ways, but nonetheless has exposed the difficulties in defining management objectives, in predicting and regulating harvests, and in coping with the tradeoffs inherent in managing multiple waterfowl stocks exposed to a common harvest. The key challenge now facing managers is whether adaptive harvest management as an institution can be sufficiently adaptive, and whether the knowledge and experience gained from the process can be reflected in higher-level policy decisions.

Improved Range Estimation Model for Three-Dimensional (3D) Range Gated Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Chua, Sing Yee; Guo, Ningqun; Tan, Ching Seong; Wang, Xin

2017-01-01

Accuracy is an important measure of system performance and remains a challenge in 3D range gated reconstruction despite the advancement in laser and sensor technology. The weighted average model that is commonly used for range estimation is heavily influenced by the intensity variation due to various factors. Accuracy improvement in term of range estimation is therefore important to fully optimise the system performance. In this paper, a 3D range gated reconstruction model is derived based on the operating principles of range gated imaging and time slicing reconstruction, fundamental of radiant energy, Laser Detection And Ranging (LADAR), and Bidirectional Reflection Distribution Function (BRDF). Accordingly, a new range estimation model is proposed to alleviate the effects induced by distance, target reflection, and range distortion. From the experimental results, the proposed model outperforms the conventional weighted average model to improve the range estimation for better 3D reconstruction. The outcome demonstrated is of interest to various laser ranging applications and can be a reference for future works. PMID:28872589

12 CFR 702.105 - Weighted-average life of investments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Weighted-average life of investments. 702.105... PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.105 Weighted-average life of investments. Except as provided below (Table 3), the weighted-average life of an investment for purposes of §§ 702.106(c...

12 CFR 702.105 - Weighted-average life of investments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Weighted-average life of investments. 702.105... PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.105 Weighted-average life of investments. Except as provided below (Table 3), the weighted-average life of an investment for purposes of §§ 702.106(c...

12 CFR 702.105 - Weighted-average life of investments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Weighted-average life of investments. 702.105... PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.105 Weighted-average life of investments. Except as provided below (Table 3), the weighted-average life of an investment for purposes of §§ 702.106(c...

12 CFR 702.105 - Weighted-average life of investments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Weighted-average life of investments. 702.105... PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.105 Weighted-average life of investments. Except as provided below (Table 3), the weighted-average life of an investment for purposes of §§ 702.106(c...

12 CFR 702.105 - Weighted-average life of investments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Weighted-average life of investments. 702.105... PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.105 Weighted-average life of investments. Except as provided below (Table 3), the weighted-average life of an investment for purposes of §§ 702.106(c...

26 CFR 1.989(b)-1 - Definition of weighted average exchange rate.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Definition of weighted average exchange rate. 1... (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Export Trade Corporations § 1.989(b)-1 Definition of weighted average exchange rate. For purposes of section 989(b)(3) and (4), the term “weighted average exchange rate...

Ensemble Averaged Probability Density Function (APDF) for Compressible Turbulent Reacting Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey

2012-01-01

In this paper, we present a concept of the averaged probability density function (APDF) for studying compressible turbulent reacting flows. The APDF is defined as an ensemble average of the fine grained probability density function (FG-PDF) with a mass density weighting. It can be used to exactly deduce the mass density weighted, ensemble averaged turbulent mean variables. The transport equation for APDF can be derived in two ways. One is the traditional way that starts from the transport equation of FG-PDF, in which the compressible Navier- Stokes equations are embedded. The resulting transport equation of APDF is then in a traditional form that contains conditional means of all terms from the right hand side of the Navier-Stokes equations except for the chemical reaction term. These conditional means are new unknown quantities that need to be modeled. Another way of deriving the transport equation of APDF is to start directly from the ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting transport equation of APDF derived from this approach appears in a closed form without any need for additional modeling. The methodology of ensemble averaging presented in this paper can be extended to other averaging procedures: for example, the Reynolds time averaging for statistically steady flow and the Reynolds spatial averaging for statistically homogeneous flow. It can also be extended to a time or spatial filtering procedure to construct the filtered density function (FDF) for the large eddy simulation (LES) of compressible turbulent reacting flows.

Visual feature extraction from voxel-weighted averaging of stimulus images in 2 fMRI studies.

PubMed

Hart, Corey B; Rose, William J

2013-11-01

Multiple studies have provided evidence for distributed object representation in the brain, with several recent experiments leveraging basis function estimates for partial image reconstruction from fMRI data. Using a novel combination of statistical decomposition, generalized linear models, and stimulus averaging on previously examined image sets and Bayesian regression of recorded fMRI activity during presentation of these data sets, we identify a subset of relevant voxels that appear to code for covarying object features. Using a technique we term "voxel-weighted averaging," we isolate image filters that these voxels appear to implement. The results, though very cursory, appear to have significant implications for hierarchical and deep-learning-type approaches toward the understanding of neural coding and representation.

Modeling electrostatic and heterogeneity effects on proton dissociation from humic substances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tipping, E.; Reddy, M.M.; Hurley, M.A.

1990-01-01

The apparent acid dissociation constant of humic substances increases by 2-4 pK units as ionization of the humic carboxylate groups proceeds. This change in apparent acid strength is due in part to the increase in electrical charge on the humic molecules as protons are shed. In addition, proton dissociation reactions are complicated because humic substances are heterogeneous with respect to proton dissociating groups and molecular size. In this paper, we use the Debye-Hu??ckel theory to describe the effects of electrostatic interactions on proton dissociation of humic substances. Simulations show that, for a size-heterogeneous system of molecules, the weight-average molecular weight is preferable to the number-average value for averaging the effects of electrostatic interactions. Analysis of published data on the proton dissociation of fulvic acid from the Suwannee River shows that the electrostatic interactions can be satisfactorily described by a hypothetical homogeneous compound having a molecular weight of 1000 (similar to the experimentally determined weight-average value). Titration data at three ionic strengths, for several fulvic acid concentrations, and in the pH range from 2.9 to 6.4 can be fitted with three adjustable parameters (pK??int values), given information on molecular size and carboxylate group content. ?? 1990 American Chemical Society.

Physical fitness and performance. Cardiorespiratory fitness in girls-change from middle to high school.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Karin A; Dowda, Marsha; Dishman, Rod K; Sirard, John R; Pate, Russell R

2007-12-01

To determine how factors are related to change in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) across time in middle school girls followed through high school. Adolescent girls (N = 274, 59% African American, baseline age = 13.6 +/- 0.6 yr) performed a submaximal fitness test (PWC170) in 8th, 9th, and 12th grades. Height, weight, sports participation, and physical activity were also measured. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and vigorous physical activity (VPA) were determined by the number of blocks reported on the 3-Day Physical Activity Recall (3DPAR). Individual differences and developmental change in CRF were assessed simultaneously by calculating individual growth curves for each participant, using growth curve modeling. Both weight-relative and absolute CRF increased from 8th to 9th grade and decreased from 9th to 12th grade. On average, girls lost 0.16 kg.m.min.kg.yr in weight-relative PWC170 scores (P < 0.01) and gained 10.3 kg.m.min.yr in absolute PWC170 scores. Girls reporting two or more blocks of MVPA or one or more blocks of VPA at baseline showed an average increase in PWC170 scores of 0.40-0.52 kg.m.min.kg.yr (weight relative) and 22-28 kg.m.min.yr (absolute) in CRF. In weight-relative models, girls with higher BMI showed lower CRF (approximately 0.37 g.m.min.kg.yr), but this was not shown in absolute models. In absolute models, white girls (approximately 40 kg.m.min.yr) and sport participants (approximately 28 kg.m.min.yr) showed an increase in CRF over time. Although there were fluctuations in PWC170 scores across time, average scores decreased during 4 yr. Physical activity was related to change in CRF over time; BMI, race, and sport participation were also important factors related to change over time in CRF (depending on expression of CRF-weight-relative vs absolute). Subsequent research should focus on explaining the complex longitudinal interactions between CRF, physical activity, race, BMI, and sports participation.

Average Weighted Receiving Time of Weighted Tetrahedron Koch Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Meifeng; Zhang, Danping; Ye, Dandan; Zhang, Cheng; Li, Lei

2015-07-01

We introduce weighted tetrahedron Koch networks with infinite weight factors, which are generalization of finite ones. The term of weighted time is firstly defined in this literature. The mean weighted first-passing time (MWFPT) and the average weighted receiving time (AWRT) are defined by weighted time accordingly. We study the AWRT with weight-dependent walk. Results show that the AWRT for a nontrivial weight factor sequence grows sublinearly with the network order. To investigate the reason of sublinearity, the average receiving time (ART) for four cases are discussed.

Pulmonary Nodule Recognition Based on Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine-PSO

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhichuan; Zhao, Qingdong; Liu, Liwei; Zhang, Lijuan

2018-01-01

Pulmonary nodule recognition is the core module of lung CAD. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm has been widely used in pulmonary nodule recognition, and the algorithm of Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine (MKL-SVM) has achieved good results therein. Based on grid search, however, the MKL-SVM algorithm needs long optimization time in course of parameter optimization; also its identification accuracy depends on the fineness of grid. In the paper, swarm intelligence is introduced and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is combined with MKL-SVM algorithm to be MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm so as to realize global optimization of parameters rapidly. In order to obtain the global optimal solution, different inertia weights such as constant inertia weight, linear inertia weight, and nonlinear inertia weight are applied to pulmonary nodules recognition. The experimental results show that the model training time of the proposed MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm is only 1/7 of the training time of the MKL-SVM grid search algorithm, achieving better recognition effect. Moreover, Euclidean norm of normalized error vector is proposed to measure the proximity between the average fitness curve and the optimal fitness curve after convergence. Through statistical analysis of the average of 20 times operation results with different inertial weights, it can be seen that the dynamic inertial weight is superior to the constant inertia weight in the MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm. In the dynamic inertial weight algorithm, the parameter optimization time of nonlinear inertia weight is shorter; the average fitness value after convergence is much closer to the optimal fitness value, which is better than the linear inertial weight. Besides, a better nonlinear inertial weight is verified. PMID:29853983

Pulmonary Nodule Recognition Based on Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine-PSO.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Zhu, Zhichuan; Hou, Alin; Zhao, Qingdong; Liu, Liwei; Zhang, Lijuan

2018-01-01

Pulmonary nodule recognition is the core module of lung CAD. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm has been widely used in pulmonary nodule recognition, and the algorithm of Multiple Kernel Learning Support Vector Machine (MKL-SVM) has achieved good results therein. Based on grid search, however, the MKL-SVM algorithm needs long optimization time in course of parameter optimization; also its identification accuracy depends on the fineness of grid. In the paper, swarm intelligence is introduced and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is combined with MKL-SVM algorithm to be MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm so as to realize global optimization of parameters rapidly. In order to obtain the global optimal solution, different inertia weights such as constant inertia weight, linear inertia weight, and nonlinear inertia weight are applied to pulmonary nodules recognition. The experimental results show that the model training time of the proposed MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm is only 1/7 of the training time of the MKL-SVM grid search algorithm, achieving better recognition effect. Moreover, Euclidean norm of normalized error vector is proposed to measure the proximity between the average fitness curve and the optimal fitness curve after convergence. Through statistical analysis of the average of 20 times operation results with different inertial weights, it can be seen that the dynamic inertial weight is superior to the constant inertia weight in the MKL-SVM-PSO algorithm. In the dynamic inertial weight algorithm, the parameter optimization time of nonlinear inertia weight is shorter; the average fitness value after convergence is much closer to the optimal fitness value, which is better than the linear inertial weight. Besides, a better nonlinear inertial weight is verified.

Birth Weight, School Sports Ability, and Adulthood Leisure-Time Physical Activity.

PubMed

Elhakeem, Ahmed; Cooper, Rachel; Bann, David; Kuh, Diana; Hardy, Rebecca

2017-01-01

This study aimed to examine the associations of birth weight with ability in school sports in adolescence and participation in leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) across adulthood and to investigate whether associations between birth weight and LTPA change with age. Study participants were British singletons born in 1946 and followed up to age 68 yr (the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development). Birth weights were extracted from birth records. Teacher reports of ability in school sports were collected at age 13 yr. LTPA was self-reported at ages 36, 43, 53, 60-64, and 68 yr and categorized at each age as participating in sports, exercise, and other vigorous LTPA at least once per month versus no participation. Associations were examined using standard and mixed-effects logistic regression models. Relevant data were available for 2739 study participants (50.1% female). When compared with the low birth weight group (≤2.50 kg), those with heavier birth weights were more likely to be rated as above average or average at school sports (vs below average); fully adjusted odds ratio = 1.78 (95% confidence interval = 1.14-2.77). Across adulthood, those with heavier birth weights were more likely to participate in LTPA than those with low birth weight; fully adjusted odds ratio of LTPA across adulthood = 1.52 (95% confidence interval = 1.09-2.14). This association did not vary by age (P = 0.5 for birth weight by age interaction). Low birth weight was associated with lower ability in school sports and with nonparticipation in LTPA across adulthood. Identifying the underlying developmental and social processes operating across life for low birth weight infants may inform the design of appropriate interventions to support participation in LTPA across life.

Biot-Gassmann theory for velocities of gas hydrate-bearing sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, M.W.

2002-01-01

Elevated elastic velocities are a distinct physical property of gas hydrate-bearing sediments. A number of velocity models and equations (e.g., pore-filling model, cementation model, effective medium theories, weighted equations, and time-average equations) have been used to describe this effect. In particular, the weighted equation and effective medium theory predict reasonably well the elastic properties of unconsolidated gas hydrate-bearing sediments. A weakness of the weighted equation is its use of the empirical relationship of the time-average equation as one element of the equation. One drawback of the effective medium theory is its prediction of unreasonably higher shear-wave velocity at high porosities, so that the predicted velocity ratio does not agree well with the observed velocity ratio. To overcome these weaknesses, a method is proposed, based on Biot-Gassmann theories and assuming the formation velocity ratio (shear to compressional velocity) of an unconsolidated sediment is related to the velocity ratio of the matrix material of the formation and its porosity. Using the Biot coefficient calculated from either the weighted equation or from the effective medium theory, the proposed method accurately predicts the elastic properties of unconsolidated sediments with or without gas hydrate concentration. This method was applied to the observed velocities at the Mallik 2L-39 well, Mackenzie Delta, Canada.

Mirrored continuum and molecular scale simulations of the ignition of high-pressure phases of RDX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Kibaek; Stewart, D. Scott, E-mail: santc@illinois.edu, E-mail: dss@illinois.edu; Joshi, Kaushik

2016-05-14

We present a mirrored atomistic and continuum framework that is used to describe the ignition of energetic materials, and a high-pressure phase of RDX in particular. The continuum formulation uses meaningful averages of thermodynamic properties obtained from the atomistic simulation and a simplification of enormously complex reaction kinetics. In particular, components are identified based on molecular weight bin averages and our methodology assumes that both the averaged atomistic and continuum simulations are represented on the same time and length scales. The atomistic simulations of thermally initiated ignition of RDX are performed using reactive molecular dynamics (RMD). The continuum model ismore » based on multi-component thermodynamics and uses a kinetics scheme that describes observed chemical changes of the averaged atomistic simulations. Thus the mirrored continuum simulations mimic the rapid change in pressure, temperature, and average molecular weight of species in the reactive mixture. This mirroring enables a new technique to simplify the chemistry obtained from reactive MD simulations while retaining the observed features and spatial and temporal scales from both the RMD and continuum model. The primary benefit of this approach is a potentially powerful, but familiar way to interpret the atomistic simulations and understand the chemical events and reaction rates. The approach is quite general and thus can provide a way to model chemistry based on atomistic simulations and extend the reach of those simulations.« less

Spatial Analysis of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus in China Using a Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Model

PubMed Central

Wu, Liang; Deng, Fei; Xie, Zhong; Hu, Sheng; Shen, Shu; Shi, Junming; Liu, Dan

2016-01-01

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is caused by severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), which has had a serious impact on public health in parts of Asia. There is no specific antiviral drug or vaccine for SFTSV and, therefore, it is important to determine the factors that influence the occurrence of SFTSV infections. This study aimed to explore the spatial associations between SFTSV infections and several potential determinants, and to predict the high-risk areas in mainland China. The analysis was carried out at the level of provinces in mainland China. The potential explanatory variables that were investigated consisted of meteorological factors (average temperature, average monthly precipitation and average relative humidity), the average proportion of rural population and the average proportion of primary industries over three years (2010–2012). We constructed a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model in order to explore the associations between the selected variables and confirmed cases of SFTSV. The study showed that: (1) meteorological factors have a strong influence on the SFTSV cover; (2) a GWLR model is suitable for exploring SFTSV cover in mainland China; (3) our findings can be used for predicting high-risk areas and highlighting when meteorological factors pose a risk in order to aid in the implementation of public health strategies. PMID:27845737

How well the Reliable Ensemble Averaging Method (REA) for 15 CMIP5 GCMs simulations works for Mexico?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colorado, G.; Salinas, J. A.; Cavazos, T.; de Grau, P.

2013-05-01

15 CMIP5 GCMs precipitation simulations were combined in a weighted ensemble using the Reliable Ensemble Averaging (REA) method, obtaining the weight of each model. This was done for a historical period (1961-2000) and for the future emissions based on low (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) radiating forcing for the period 2075-2099. The annual cycle of simple ensemble of the historical GCMs simulations, the historical REA average and the Climate Research Unit (CRU TS3.1) database was compared in four zones of México. In the case of precipitation we can see the improvements by using the REA method, especially in the two northern zones of México where the REA average is more close to the observations (CRU) that the simple average. However in the southern zones although there is an improvement it is not as good as it is in the north, particularly in the southeast where instead of the REA average is able to reproduce qualitatively good the annual cycle with the mid-summer drought it was greatly underestimated. The main reason is because the precipitation is underestimated for all the models and the mid-summer drought do not even exists in some models. In the REA average of the future scenarios, as we can expected, the most drastic decrease in precipitation was simulated using the RCP8.5 especially in the monsoon area and in the south of Mexico in summer and in winter. In the center and southern of Mexico however, the same scenario in autumn simulates an increase of precipitation.

On the use of hydroxyl radical kinetics to assess the number-average molecular weight of dissolved organic matter.

PubMed

Appiani, Elena; Page, Sarah E; McNeill, Kristopher

2014-10-21

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is involved in numerous environmental processes, and its molecular size is important in many of these processes, such as DOM bioavailability, DOM sorptive capacity, and the formation of disinfection byproducts during water treatment. The size and size distribution of the molecules composing DOM remains an open question. In this contribution, an indirect method to assess the average size of DOM is described, which is based on the reaction of hydroxyl radical (HO(•)) quenching by DOM. HO(•) is often assumed to be relatively unselective, reacting with nearly all organic molecules with similar rate constants. Literature values for HO(•) reaction with organic molecules were surveyed to assess the unselectivity of DOM and to determine a representative quenching rate constant (k(rep) = 5.6 × 10(9) M(-1) s(-1)). This value was used to assess the average molecular weight of various humic and fulvic acid isolates as model DOM, using literature HO(•) quenching constants, kC,DOM. The results obtained by this method were compared with previous estimates of average molecular weight. The average molecular weight (Mn) values obtained with this approach are lower than the Mn measured by other techniques such as size exclusion chromatography (SEC), vapor pressure osmometry (VPO), and flow field fractionation (FFF). This suggests that DOM is an especially good quencher for HO(•), reacting at rates close to the diffusion-control limit. It was further observed that humic acids generally react faster than fulvic acids. The high reactivity of humic acids toward HO(•) is in line with the antioxidant properties of DOM. The benefit of this method is that it provides a firm upper bound on the average molecular weight of DOM, based on the kinetic limits of the HO(•) reaction. The results indicate low average molecular weight values, which is most consistent with the recent understanding of DOM. A possible DOM size distribution is discussed to reconcile the small nature of DOM with the large-molecule behavior observed in other studies.

Hardware-Based Non-Optimum Factors for Launch Vehicle Structural Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, K. Chauncey; Cerro, Jeffrey A.

2010-01-01

During aerospace vehicle conceptual and preliminary design, empirical non-optimum factors are typically applied to predicted structural component weights to account for undefined manufacturing and design details. Non-optimum factors are developed here for 32 aluminum-lithium 2195 orthogrid panels comprising the liquid hydrogen tank barrel of the Space Shuttle External Tank using measured panel weights and manufacturing drawings. Minimum values for skin thickness, axial and circumferential blade stiffener thickness and spacing, and overall panel thickness are used to estimate individual panel weights. Panel non-optimum factors computed using a coarse weights model range from 1.21 to 1.77, and a refined weights model (including weld lands and skin and stiffener transition details) yields non-optimum factors of between 1.02 and 1.54. Acreage panels have an average 1.24 non-optimum factor using the coarse model, and 1.03 with the refined version. The observed consistency of these acreage non-optimum factors suggests that relatively simple models can be used to accurately predict large structural component weights for future launch vehicles.

Increased performance in the short-term water demand forecasting through the use of a parallel adaptive weighting strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardinha-Lourenço, A.; Andrade-Campos, A.; Antunes, A.; Oliveira, M. S.

2018-03-01

Recent research on water demand short-term forecasting has shown that models using univariate time series based on historical data are useful and can be combined with other prediction methods to reduce errors. The behavior of water demands in drinking water distribution networks focuses on their repetitive nature and, under meteorological conditions and similar consumers, allows the development of a heuristic forecast model that, in turn, combined with other autoregressive models, can provide reliable forecasts. In this study, a parallel adaptive weighting strategy of water consumption forecast for the next 24-48 h, using univariate time series of potable water consumption, is proposed. Two Portuguese potable water distribution networks are used as case studies where the only input data are the consumption of water and the national calendar. For the development of the strategy, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and a short-term forecast heuristic algorithm are used. Simulations with the model showed that, when using a parallel adaptive weighting strategy, the prediction error can be reduced by 15.96% and the average error by 9.20%. This reduction is important in the control and management of water supply systems. The proposed methodology can be extended to other forecast methods, especially when it comes to the availability of multiple forecast models.

Interpreting lateral dynamic weight shifts using a simple inverted pendulum model.

PubMed

Kennedy, Michael W; Bretl, Timothy; Schmiedeler, James P

2014-01-01

Seventy-five young, healthy adults completed a lateral weight-shifting activity in which each shifted his/her center of pressure (CoP) to visually displayed target locations with the aid of visual CoP feedback. Each subject's CoP data were modeled using a single-link inverted pendulum system with a spring-damper at the joint. This extends the simple inverted pendulum model of static balance in the sagittal plane to lateral weight-shifting balance. The model controlled pendulum angle using PD control and a ramp setpoint trajectory, and weight-shifting was characterized by both shift speed and a non-minimum phase (NMP) behavior metric. This NMP behavior metric examines the force magnitude at shift initiation and provides weight-shifting balance performance information that parallels the examination of peak ground reaction forces in gait analysis. Control parameters were optimized on a subject-by-subject basis to match balance metrics for modeled results to metric values calculated from experimental data. Overall, the model matches experimental data well (average percent error of 0.35% for shifting speed and 0.05% for NMP behavior). These results suggest that the single-link inverted pendulum model can be used effectively to capture lateral weight-shifting balance, as it has been shown to model static balance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Psychological Correlates of University Students' Academic Performance: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Michelle; Abraham, Charles; Bond, Rod

2012-01-01

A review of 13 years of research into antecedents of university students' grade point average (GPA) scores generated the following: a comprehensive, conceptual map of known correlates of tertiary GPA; assessment of the magnitude of average, weighted correlations with GPA; and tests of multivariate models of GPA correlates within and across…

A model-averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Pohlmann, Karl F; Chapman, Jenny B; Pohll, Greg M; Reeves, Donald M

2010-01-01

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.

Improved modelling of ship SO 2 emissions—a fuel-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endresen, Øyvind; Bakke, Joachim; Sørgård, Eirik; Flatlandsmo Berglen, Tore; Holmvang, Per

Significant variations are apparent between the various reported regional and global ship SO 2 emission inventories. Important parameters for SO 2 emission modelling are sulphur contents and marine fuel consumption. Since 1993, the global average sulphur content for heavy fuel has shown an overall downward trend, while the bunker sale has increased. We present an improved bottom up approach to estimate marine sulphur emissions from ship transportation, including the geographical distribution. More than 53,000 individual bunker samples are used to establish regionally and globally (volume) weighted average sulphur contents for heavy and distillate marine fuels. We find that the year 2002 sulphur content in heavy fuels varies regionally from 1.90% (South America) to 3.07% (Asia), with a globally weighted average of 2.68% sulphur. The calculated globally weighted average content for heavy fuels is found to be 5% higher than the average (arithmetic mean) sulphur content commonly used. The reason for this is likely that larger bunker stems are mainly of high-viscosity heavy fuel, which tends to have higher sulphur values compared to lower viscosity fuels. The uncertainties in SO 2 inventories are significantly reduced using our updated SO 2 emission factors (volume-weighted sulphur content). Regional marine bunker sales figures are combined with volume-weighted sulphur contents for each region to give a global SO 2 emission estimate in the range of 5.9-7.2 Tg (SO 2) for international marine transportation. Also taking into account the domestic sales, the total emissions from all ocean-going transportation is estimated to be 7.0-8.5 Tg (SO 2). Our estimate is significantly lower than recent global estimate reported by Corbett and Koehler [2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 108] (6.49 Tg S or about 13.0 Tg SO 2). Endresen et al. [2004. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, D23302] claim that uncertainties in input data for the activity-based method will give too high emission estimates. We also indicate that this higher estimate will almost give doubling of regional emissions, compared to detailed movement-based estimates. The paper presents an alternative approach to estimate present overall SO 2 ship emissions with improved accuracy.

A Part-Of-Speech term weighting scheme for biomedical information retrieval.

PubMed

Wang, Yanshan; Wu, Stephen; Li, Dingcheng; Mehrabi, Saeed; Liu, Hongfang

2016-10-01

In the era of digitalization, information retrieval (IR), which retrieves and ranks documents from large collections according to users' search queries, has been popularly applied in the biomedical domain. Building patient cohorts using electronic health records (EHRs) and searching literature for topics of interest are some IR use cases. Meanwhile, natural language processing (NLP), such as tokenization or Part-Of-Speech (POS) tagging, has been developed for processing clinical documents or biomedical literature. We hypothesize that NLP can be incorporated into IR to strengthen the conventional IR models. In this study, we propose two NLP-empowered IR models, POS-BoW and POS-MRF, which incorporate automatic POS-based term weighting schemes into bag-of-word (BoW) and Markov Random Field (MRF) IR models, respectively. In the proposed models, the POS-based term weights are iteratively calculated by utilizing a cyclic coordinate method where golden section line search algorithm is applied along each coordinate to optimize the objective function defined by mean average precision (MAP). In the empirical experiments, we used the data sets from the Medical Records track in Text REtrieval Conference (TREC) 2011 and 2012 and the Genomics track in TREC 2004. The evaluation on TREC 2011 and 2012 Medical Records tracks shows that, for the POS-BoW models, the mean improvement rates for IR evaluation metrics, MAP, bpref, and P@10, are 10.88%, 4.54%, and 3.82%, compared to the BoW models; and for the POS-MRF models, these rates are 13.59%, 8.20%, and 8.78%, compared to the MRF models. Additionally, we experimentally verify that the proposed weighting approach is superior to the simple heuristic and frequency based weighting approaches, and validate our POS category selection. Using the optimal weights calculated in this experiment, we tested the proposed models on the TREC 2004 Genomics track and obtained average of 8.63% and 10.04% improvement rates for POS-BoW and POS-MRF, respectively. These significant improvements verify the effectiveness of leveraging POS tagging for biomedical IR tasks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Covariance Function for Nearshore Wave Assimilation Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-30

covariance can be modeled by a parameterized Gaussian function, for nearshore wave assimilation applications, the covariance function depends primarily on...case of missing values at the compiled time series, the gaps were filled by weighted interpolation. The weights depend on the number of the...averaging, in order to create the continuous time series, filters out the dependency on the instantaneous meteorological and oceanographic conditions

Characterization of impulse noise and analysis of its effect upon correlation receivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houts, R. C.; Moore, J. D.

1971-01-01

A noise model is formulated to describe the impulse noise in many digital systems. A simplified model, which assumes that each noise burst contains a randomly weighted version of the same basic waveform, is used to derive the performance equations for a correlation receiver. The expected number of bit errors per noise burst is expressed as a function of the average signal energy, signal-set correlation coefficient, bit time, noise-weighting-factor variance and probability density function, and a time range function which depends on the crosscorrelation of the signal-set basis functions and the noise waveform. A procedure is established for extending the results for the simplified noise model to the general model. Unlike the performance results for Gaussian noise, it is shown that for impulse noise the error performance is affected by the choice of signal-set basis functions and that Orthogonal signaling is not equivalent to On-Off signaling with the same average energy.

Multi-objective optimization for generating a weighted multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.

2017-12-01

Many studies have demonstrated that multi-model ensembles generally show better skill than each ensemble member. When generating weighted multi-model ensembles, the first step is measuring the performance of individual model simulations using observations. There is a consensus on the assignment of weighting factors based on a single evaluation metric. When considering only one evaluation metric, the weighting factor for each model is proportional to a performance score or inversely proportional to an error for the model. While this conventional approach can provide appropriate combinations of multiple models, the approach confronts a big challenge when there are multiple metrics under consideration. When considering multiple evaluation metrics, it is obvious that a simple averaging of multiple performance scores or model ranks does not address the trade-off problem between conflicting metrics. So far, there seems to be no best method to generate weighted multi-model ensembles based on multiple performance metrics. The current study applies the multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal trade-off solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to combining multiple performance metrics for the global climate models and their dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over North America and generating a weighted multi-model ensemble. NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) software toolkit are used for assessment of the climate simulations. Overall, the performance of each model differs markedly with strong seasonal dependence. Because of the considerable variability across the climate simulations, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections by assigning optimized weighting factors to the models with relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimally weighted multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than an arithmetic ensemble mean and may provide reliable future projections.

North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L.

2018-06-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.

Diffusion weighted imaging in patients with rectal cancer: Comparison between Gaussian and non-Gaussian models

PubMed Central

Marias, Kostas; Lambregts, Doenja M. J.; Nikiforaki, Katerina; van Heeswijk, Miriam M.; Bakers, Frans C. H.; Beets-Tan, Regina G. H.

2017-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of four diffusion models, including mono and bi-exponential both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models, in diffusion weighted imaging of rectal cancer. Material and methods Nineteen patients with rectal adenocarcinoma underwent MRI examination of the rectum before chemoradiation therapy including a 7 b-value diffusion sequence (0, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and 2000 s/mm2) at a 1.5T scanner. Four different diffusion models including mono- and bi-exponential Gaussian (MG and BG) and non-Gaussian (MNG and BNG) were applied on whole tumor volumes of interest. Two different statistical criteria were recruited to assess their fitting performance, including the adjusted-R2 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). To decide which model better characterizes rectal cancer, model selection was relied on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and F-ratio. Results All candidate models achieved a good fitting performance with the two most complex models, the BG and the BNG, exhibiting the best fitting performance. However, both criteria for model selection indicated that the MG model performed better than any other model. In particular, using AIC Weights and F-ratio, the pixel-based analysis demonstrated that tumor areas better described by the simplest MG model in an average area of 53% and 33%, respectively. Non-Gaussian behavior was illustrated in an average area of 37% according to the F-ratio, and 7% using AIC Weights. However, the distributions of the pixels best fitted by each of the four models suggest that MG failed to perform better than any other model in all patients, and the overall tumor area. Conclusion No single diffusion model evaluated herein could accurately describe rectal tumours. These findings probably can be explained on the basis of increased tumour heterogeneity, where areas with high vascularity could be fitted better with bi-exponential models, and areas with necrosis would mostly follow mono-exponential behavior. PMID:28863161

Diffusion weighted imaging in patients with rectal cancer: Comparison between Gaussian and non-Gaussian models.

PubMed

Manikis, Georgios C; Marias, Kostas; Lambregts, Doenja M J; Nikiforaki, Katerina; van Heeswijk, Miriam M; Bakers, Frans C H; Beets-Tan, Regina G H; Papanikolaou, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of four diffusion models, including mono and bi-exponential both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models, in diffusion weighted imaging of rectal cancer. Nineteen patients with rectal adenocarcinoma underwent MRI examination of the rectum before chemoradiation therapy including a 7 b-value diffusion sequence (0, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and 2000 s/mm2) at a 1.5T scanner. Four different diffusion models including mono- and bi-exponential Gaussian (MG and BG) and non-Gaussian (MNG and BNG) were applied on whole tumor volumes of interest. Two different statistical criteria were recruited to assess their fitting performance, including the adjusted-R2 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). To decide which model better characterizes rectal cancer, model selection was relied on Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and F-ratio. All candidate models achieved a good fitting performance with the two most complex models, the BG and the BNG, exhibiting the best fitting performance. However, both criteria for model selection indicated that the MG model performed better than any other model. In particular, using AIC Weights and F-ratio, the pixel-based analysis demonstrated that tumor areas better described by the simplest MG model in an average area of 53% and 33%, respectively. Non-Gaussian behavior was illustrated in an average area of 37% according to the F-ratio, and 7% using AIC Weights. However, the distributions of the pixels best fitted by each of the four models suggest that MG failed to perform better than any other model in all patients, and the overall tumor area. No single diffusion model evaluated herein could accurately describe rectal tumours. These findings probably can be explained on the basis of increased tumour heterogeneity, where areas with high vascularity could be fitted better with bi-exponential models, and areas with necrosis would mostly follow mono-exponential behavior.

Substitution Models of Water for Other Beverages, and the Incidence of Obesity and Weight Gain in the SUN Cohort.

PubMed

Fresán, Ujué; Gea, Alfredo; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel A

2016-10-31

Obesity is a major epidemic for developed countries in the 21st century. The main cause of obesity is energy imbalance, of which contributing factors include a sedentary lifestyle, epigenetic factors and excessive caloric intake through food and beverages. A high consumption of caloric beverages, such as alcoholic or sweetened drinks, may particularly contribute to weight gain, and lower satiety has been associated with the intake of liquid instead of solid calories. Our objective was to evaluate the association between the substitution of a serving per day of water for another beverage (or group of them) and the incidence of obesity and weight change in a Mediterranean cohort, using mathematical models. We followed 15,765 adults without obesity at baseline. The intake of 17 beverage items was assessed at baseline through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The outcomes were average change in body weight in a four-year period and new-onset obesity and their association with the substitution of one serving per day of water for one of the other beverages. During the follow-up, 873 incident cases of obesity were identified. In substitution models, the consumption of water instead of beer or sugar-sweetened soda beverages was associated with a lower obesity incidence (the Odds Ratio (OR) 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 0.94) and OR 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.97); respectively) and, in the case of beer, it was also associated with a higher average weight loss (weight change difference = -328 g; (95% CI -566 to -89)). Thus, this study found that replacing one sugar-sweetened soda beverage or beer with one serving of water per day at baseline was related to a lower incidence of obesity and to a higher weight loss over a four-year period time in the case of beer, based on mathematical models.

Substitution Models of Water for Other Beverages, and the Incidence of Obesity and Weight Gain in the SUN Cohort

PubMed Central

Fresán, Ujué; Gea, Alfredo; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel A.

2016-01-01

Obesity is a major epidemic for developed countries in the 21st century. The main cause of obesity is energy imbalance, of which contributing factors include a sedentary lifestyle, epigenetic factors and excessive caloric intake through food and beverages. A high consumption of caloric beverages, such as alcoholic or sweetened drinks, may particularly contribute to weight gain, and lower satiety has been associated with the intake of liquid instead of solid calories. Our objective was to evaluate the association between the substitution of a serving per day of water for another beverage (or group of them) and the incidence of obesity and weight change in a Mediterranean cohort, using mathematical models. We followed 15,765 adults without obesity at baseline. The intake of 17 beverage items was assessed at baseline through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. The outcomes were average change in body weight in a four-year period and new-onset obesity and their association with the substitution of one serving per day of water for one of the other beverages. During the follow-up, 873 incident cases of obesity were identified. In substitution models, the consumption of water instead of beer or sugar-sweetened soda beverages was associated with a lower obesity incidence (the Odds Ratio (OR) 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 0.94) and OR 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.97); respectively) and, in the case of beer, it was also associated with a higher average weight loss (weight change difference = −328 g; (95% CI −566 to −89)). Thus, this study found that replacing one sugar-sweetened soda beverage or beer with one serving of water per day at baseline was related to a lower incidence of obesity and to a higher weight loss over a four-year period time in the case of beer, based on mathematical models. PMID:27809239

Principal curvatures and area ratio of propagating surfaces in isotropic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Tianhang; You, Jiaping; Yang, Yue

2017-10-01

We study the statistics of principal curvatures and the surface area ratio of propagating surfaces with a constant or nonconstant propagating velocity in isotropic turbulence using direct numerical simulation. Propagating surface elements initially constitute a plane to model a planar premixed flame front. When the statistics of evolving propagating surfaces reach the stationary stage, the statistical profiles of principal curvatures scaled by the Kolmogorov length scale versus the constant displacement speed scaled by the Kolmogorov velocity scale collapse at different Reynolds numbers. The magnitude of averaged principal curvatures and the number of surviving surface elements without cusp formation decrease with increasing displacement speed. In addition, the effect of surface stretch on the nonconstant displacement speed inhibits the cusp formation on surface elements at negative Markstein numbers. In order to characterize the wrinkling process of the global propagating surface, we develop a model to demonstrate that the increase of the surface area ratio is primarily due to positive Lagrangian time integrations of the area-weighted averaged tangential strain-rate term and propagation-curvature term. The difference between the negative averaged mean curvature and the positive area-weighted averaged mean curvature characterizes the cellular geometry of the global propagating surface.

Average weighted receiving time on the non-homogeneous double-weighted fractal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Dandan; Dai, Meifeng; Sun, Yu; Su, Weiyi

2017-05-01

In this paper, based on actual road networks, a model of the non-homogeneous double-weighted fractal networks is introduced depending on the number of copies s and two kinds of weight factors wi ,ri(i = 1 , 2 , … , s) . The double-weights represent the capacity-flowing weights and the cost-traveling weights, respectively. Denote by wijF the capacity-flowing weight connecting the nodes i and j, and denote by wijC the cost-traveling weight connecting the nodes i and j. Let wijF be related to the weight factors w1 ,w2 , … ,ws, and let wijC be related to the weight factors r1 ,r2 , … ,rs. Assuming that the walker, at each step, starting from its current node, moves to any of its neighbors with probability proportional to the capacity-flowing weight of edge linking them. The weighted time for two adjacency nodes is the cost-traveling weight connecting the two nodes. The average weighted receiving time (AWRT) is defined on the non-homogeneous double-weighted fractal networks. AWRT depends on the relationships of the number of copies s and two kinds of weight factors wi ,ri(i = 1 , 2 , … , s) . The obtained remarkable results display that in the large network, the AWRT grows as a power-law function of the network size Ng with the exponent, represented by θ =logs(w1r1 +w2r2 + ⋯ +wsrs) < 1 when w1r1 +w2r2 + ⋯ +wsrs ≠ 1, which means that the smaller the value of w1r1 +w2r2 + ⋯ +wsrs is, the more efficient the process of receiving information is. Especially when w1r1 +w2r2 + ⋯ +wsrs = 1, AWRT grows with increasing order Ng as logNg or (logNg) 2 . In the classic fractal networks, the average receiving time (ART) grows with linearly with the network size Ng. Thus, the non-homogeneous double-weighted fractal networks are more efficient than classic fractal networks in term of receiving information.

No evidence found for an association between prednisone dose and FVC change in newly-treated pulmonary sarcoidosis.

PubMed

Broos, Caroline E; Poell, Linda H C; Looman, Caspar W N; In 't Veen, Johannes C C M; Grootenboers, Marco J J H; Heller, Roxane; van den Toorn, Leon M; Wapenaar, Monique; Hoogsteden, Henk C; Kool, Mirjam; Wijsenbeek, Marlies S; van den Blink, Bernt

2018-05-01

Prednisone is used as first-line therapy for pulmonary sarcoidosis. What dosing strategy has the best balance between effect and side-effects is largely unknown. We analyzed change in forced vital capacity (FVC) and weight during different prednisone doses used in daily practice for treatment naïve pulmonary sarcoidosis patients. Multilevel models were used to describe FVC and weight change over time. Correlations were calculated using linear regression models. Fifty-four patients were included. FVC changed over time (p < 0.001), with an average increase of 9.6% predicted (95% CI: 7.2 to 12.1) at 12 months. Weight changed significantly over time (p < 0.001), with an average increase of 4.3 kg (95% CI: 3.0 to 5.6) at 12 months. Although FVC and weight changed significantly over time, there was little correlation between prednisone dose and FVC change, while weight increase correlated significantly with cumulative prednisone dose at 24 months. In patients treated with a high cumulative prednisone dose, baseline FVC was on average lower (p = 0.001) compared to low dose treated patients, while no significant differences were observed in need for second/third-line therapy or number of exacerbations. A strategy leading to a low cumulative dose at 12 months was defined by rapid dose tapering to 10 mg/day within 3.5 months. These results suggest that prednisone therapy aimed at improving or preserving FVC in newly- treated pulmonary sarcoidosis can often be reduced in dose, using a treatment regimen that is characterized by early dose tapering. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

26 CFR 1.989(b)-1 - Definition of weighted average exchange rate.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 10 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Definition of weighted average exchange rate. 1... (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES (CONTINUED) Export Trade Corporations § 1.989(b)-1 Definition of weighted average exchange rate. For purposes of section 989(b)(3) and (4), the term “weighted...

Indirect Validation of Probe Speed Data on Arterial Corridors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eshragh, Sepideh; Young, Stanley E.; Sharifi, Elham

This study aimed to estimate the accuracy of probe speed data on arterial corridors on the basis of roadway geometric attributes and functional classification. It was assumed that functional class (medium and low) along with other road characteristics (such as weighted average of the annual average daily traffic, average signal density, average access point density, and average speed) were available as correlation factors to estimate the accuracy of probe traffic data. This study tested these factors as predictors of the fidelity of probe traffic data by using the results of an extensive validation exercise. This study showed strong correlations betweenmore » these geometric attributes and the accuracy of probe data when they were assessed by using average absolute speed error. Linear models were regressed to existing data to estimate appropriate models for medium- and low-type arterial corridors. The proposed models for medium- and low-type arterials were validated further on the basis of the results of a slowdown analysis. These models can be used to predict the accuracy of probe data indirectly in medium and low types of arterial corridors.« less

Developmental origins of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a case control study comparing birth weight in women with PCOS and control group.

PubMed

Sadrzadeh, Sheda; Painter, Rebecca C; Lambalk, Cornelis B

2016-10-01

Evidence from various epidemiological studies and experimental animal studies has linked adverse intrauterine circumstances with health problems in adult life. This field of investigation is known as Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD). Studies investigating the relation between developing polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in adulthood and birth weight have yielded inconsistent results: PCOS is described more often in women with low birth weight and high birth weight, while other studies have failed to establish any relation. In this retrospective case-control study, we evaluated whether women diagnosed with PCOS had lower birth weight compared to women with a regular menstrual cycle (controls). Binary logistic regression models were used to analyze the data and correct for known confounders. About 65 women with PCOS and 96 controls were recruited for this purpose. The average birth weight of PCOS women (3357 g) did not differ from the average birth weight of controls (3409 g). Mean age at menarche differed significantly between groups, 13.7  years and 12.8  years (p = 0.006), respectively, for PCOS women and controls. In conclusion, we could not confirm the effect of adverse intrauterine conditions, reflected in birth weight, on developing PCOS.

Design of sidewall treatment of cabin noise control of a twin engine turboprop aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaicaitis, R.; Slazak, M.

1983-01-01

An analytical procedure was used to predict the noise transmission into the cabin of a twin engine general aviation aircraft. This model was then used to optimize the interior A weighted noise levels to an average value of about 85 dBA. The surface pressure noise spectral levels were selected utilizing experimental flight data and empirical predictions. The add on treatments considered in this optimization study include aluminum honeycomb panels, constrained layer damping tape, porous acoustic blankets, acoustic foams, septum barriers and limp trim panels which are isolated from the vibration of the main sidewall structure. To reduce the average noise level in the cabin from about 102 kBA (baseline) to 85 dBA (optimized), the added weight of the noise control treatment is about 2% of the total gross takeoff weight of the aircraft.

Design of sidewall treatment of cabin noise control of a twin engine turboprop aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaicaitis, R.; Slazak, M.

1983-12-01

An analytical procedure was used to predict the noise transmission into the cabin of a twin engine general aviation aircraft. This model was then used to optimize the interior A weighted noise levels to an average value of about 85 dBA. The surface pressure noise spectral levels were selected utilizing experimental flight data and empirical predictions. The add on treatments considered in this optimization study include aluminum honeycomb panels, constrained layer damping tape, porous acoustic blankets, acoustic foams, septum barriers and limp trim panels which are isolated from the vibration of the main sidewall structure. To reduce the average noise level in the cabin from about 102 kBA (baseline) to 85 dBA (optimized), the added weight of the noise control treatment is about 2% of the total gross takeoff weight of the aircraft.

12 CFR Appendix B to Subpart A of... - Conversion of Scorecard Measures into Score

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 327—Conversion of Scorecard Measures into Score 1. Weighted Average CAMELS Rating Weighted average CAMELS ratings between 1 and 3.5 are assigned a score between 25 and 100 according to the following equation: S = 25 + [(20/3) * (C 2 −1)], where: S = the weighted average CAMELS score; and C = the weighted...

12 CFR Appendix B to Subpart A of... - Conversion of Scorecard Measures into Score

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 327—Conversion of Scorecard Measures into Score 1. Weighted Average CAMELS Rating Weighted average CAMELS ratings between 1 and 3.5 are assigned a score between 25 and 100 according to the following equation: S = 25 + [(20/3) * (C 2 −1)], where: S = the weighted average CAMELS score; and C = the weighted...

12 CFR Appendix B to Subpart A of... - Conversion of Scorecard Measures into Score

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 327—Conversion of Scorecard Measures into Score 1. Weighted Average CAMELS Rating Weighted average CAMELS ratings between 1 and 3.5 are assigned a score between 25 and 100 according to the following equation: S = 25 + [(20/3) * (C 2 −1)], where: S = the weighted average CAMELS score; and C = the weighted...

A Comparison Study of Return Ratio-Based Academic Enrollment Forecasting Models. Professional File. Article 129, Spring 2013

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zan, Xinxing Anna; Yoon, Sang Won; Khasawneh, Mohammad; Srihari, Krishnaswami

2013-01-01

In an effort to develop a low-cost and user-friendly forecasting model to minimize forecasting error, we have applied average and exponentially weighted return ratios to project undergraduate student enrollment. We tested the proposed forecasting models with different sets of historical enrollment data, such as university-, school-, and…

Climate Projections from the NARCliM Project: Bayesian Model Averaging of Maximum Temperature Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Evans, J. P.; Fan, Y.

2015-12-01

NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project) is a regional climate project for Australia and the surrounding region. It dynamically downscales 4 General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to provide climate projections for the CORDEX-AustralAsia region at 50 km resolution, and for south-east Australia at 10 km resolution. The project differs from previous work in the level of sophistication of model selection. Specifically, the selection process for GCMs included (i) conducting literature review to evaluate model performance, (ii) analysing model independence, and (iii) selecting models that span future temperature and precipitation change space. RCMs for downscaling the GCMs were chosen based on their performance for several precipitation events over South-East Australia, and on model independence.Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a statistically consistent framework for weighing the models based on their likelihood given the available observations. These weights are used to provide probability distribution functions (pdfs) for model projections. We develop a BMA framework for constructing probabilistic climate projections for spatially-averaged variables from the NARCliM project. The first step in the procedure is smoothing model output in order to exclude the influence of internal climate variability. Our statistical model for model-observations residuals is a homoskedastic iid process. Comparing RCMs with Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) observations is used to determine model weights through Monte Carlo integration. Posterior pdfs of statistical parameters of model-data residuals are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The uncertainty in the properties of the model-data residuals is fully accounted for when constructing the projections. We present the preliminary results of the BMA analysis for yearly maximum temperature for New South Wales state planning regions for the period 2060-2079.

Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Non-Uniqueness and Uncertainty Analysis of Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fijani, E.; Chitsazan, N.; Nadiri, A.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

2012-12-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to estimate concentration of chemicals in groundwater systems. However, estimation uncertainty is rarely discussed in the literature. Uncertainty in ANN output stems from three sources: ANN inputs, ANN parameters (weights and biases), and ANN structures. Uncertainty in ANN inputs may come from input data selection and/or input data error. ANN parameters are naturally uncertain because they are maximum-likelihood estimated. ANN structure is also uncertain because there is no unique ANN model given a specific case. Therefore, multiple plausible AI models are generally resulted for a study. One might ask why good models have to be ignored in favor of the best model in traditional estimation. What is the ANN estimation variance? How do the variances from different ANN models accumulate to the total estimation variance? To answer these questions we propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging (HBMA) framework. Instead of choosing one ANN model (the best ANN model) for estimation, HBMA averages outputs of all plausible ANN models. The model weights are based on the evidence of data. Therefore, the HBMA avoids overconfidence on the single best ANN model. In addition, HBMA is able to analyze uncertainty propagation through aggregation of ANN models in a hierarchy framework. This method is applied for estimation of fluoride concentration in the Poldasht plain and the Bazargan plain in Iran. Unusually high fluoride concentration in the Poldasht and Bazargan plains has caused negative effects on the public health. Management of this anomaly requires estimation of fluoride concentration distribution in the area. The results show that the HBMA provides a knowledge-decision-based framework that facilitates analyzing and quantifying ANN estimation uncertainties from different sources. In addition HBMA allows comparative evaluation of the realizations for each source of uncertainty by segregating the uncertainty sources in a hierarchical framework. Fluoride concentration estimation using the HBMA method shows better agreement to the observation data in the test step because they are not based on a single model with a non-dominate weights.

Mantle structure and composition to 800-km depth beneath southern Africa and surrounding oceans from broadband body waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, R. E.; Wright, C.; Kwadiba, M. T. O.; Kgaswane, E. M.

2003-12-01

Average one-dimensional P and S wavespeed models from the surface to depths of 800 km were derived for the southern African region using travel times and waveforms from earthquakes recorded at stations of the Kaapvaal and South African seismic networks. The Herglotz-Wiechert method combined with ray tracing was used to derive a preliminary P wavespeed model, followed by refinements using phase-weighted stacking and synthetic seismograms to yield the final model. Travel times combined with ray tracing were used to derive the S wavespeed model, which was also refined using phase-weighted stacking and synthetic seismograms. The presence of a high wavespeed upper mantle lid in the S model overlying a low wavespeed zone (LWZ) around 210- to ˜345-km depth that is not observed in the P wavespeed model was inferred. The 410-km discontinuity shows similar characteristics to that in other continental regions, but occurs slightly deeper at 420 km. Depletion of iron and/or enrichment in aluminium relative to other regions are the preferred explanation, since the P wavespeeds throughout the transition zone are slightly higher than average. The average S wavespeed structure beneath southern Africa within and below the transition zone is similar to that of the IASP91 model. There is no evidence for discontinuity at 520-km depth. The 660-km discontinuity also appears to be slightly deeper than average (668 km), although the estimated thickness of the transition zone is 248 km, similar to the global average of 241 km. The small size of the 660-km discontinuity for P waves, compared with many other regions, suggests that interpretation of the discontinuity as the transformation of spinel to perovskite and magnesiowüstite may require modification. Alternative explanations include the presence of garnetite-rich material or ilmenite-forming phase transformations above the 660-km discontinuity, and the garnet-perovskite transformation as the discontinuity.

Comparison of cervical spine kinematics using a fluoroscopic model for adjacent segment degeneration. Invited submission from the Joint Section on Disorders of the Spine and Peripheral Nerves, March 2007.

PubMed

Cheng, Joseph S; Liu, Fei; Komistek, Richard D; Mahfouz, Mohamed R; Sharma, Adrija; Glaser, Diana

2007-11-01

In this cervical spine kinematics study the authors evaluate the motions and forces in the normal, degenerative, and fused states to assess how alteration in the cervical motion segment affects adjacent segment degeneration and spondylosis. Fluoroscopic images obtained in 30 individuals (10 in each group with disease at C5-6) undergoing flexion/extension motions were collected. Kinematic data were obtained from the fluoroscopic images and analyzed with an inverse dynamic mathematical model of the cervical spine that was developed for this analysis. During 20 degrees flexion to 15 degrees extension, average relative angles at the adjacent levels of C6-7 and C4-5 in the fused patients were 13.4 degrees and 8.8 degrees versus 3.7 degrees and 4.8 degrees in the healthy individuals. Differences at C3-4 averaged only about 1 degrees. Maximum transverse forces in the fused spines were two times the skull weight at C6-7 and one times the skull weight at C4-5, compared with 0.2 times the skull weight and 0.3 times the skull weight in the healthy individuals. Vertical forces ranged from 1.6 to 2.6 times the skull weight at C6-7 and from 1.2 to 2.5 times the skull weight at C4-5 in the patients who had undergone fusion, and from 1.4 to 3.1 times the skull weight and from 0.9 to 3.3 times the skull weight, respectively, in the volunteers. Adjacent-segment degeneration may occur in patients with fusion due to increased motions and forces at both adjacent levels when compared with healthy individuals in a comparable flexion and extension range.

Bariatric embolization for suppression of the hunger hormone ghrelin in a porcine model.

PubMed

Paxton, Ben E; Kim, Charles Y; Alley, Christopher L; Crow, Jennifer H; Balmadrid, Bryan; Keith, Christopher G; Kankotia, Ravi J; Stinnett, Sandra; Arepally, Aravind

2013-02-01

To prospectively test in a porcine model the hypothesis that bariatric embolization with commercially available calibrated microspheres can result in substantial suppression of systemic ghrelin levels and affect weight gain over an 8-week period. The institutional animal care and use committee approved this study. Twelve healthy growing swine (mean weight, 38.4 kg; weight range, 30.3-47.0 kg) were evaluated. Bariatric embolization was performed by infusion of 40-μm calibrated microspheres selectively into the gastric arteries that supply the fundus. Six swine underwent bariatric embolization, while six control animals underwent a sham procedure with saline. Weight and fasting plasma ghrelin and glucose levels were obtained in animals at baseline and at weeks 1-8. Statistical testing for differences in serum ghrelin levels and weight at each time point was performed with the Wilcoxon signed rank test for intragroup differences and the Wilcoxon rank sum test for intergroup differences. The pattern of change in ghrelin levels over time was significantly different between control and experimental animals. Weekly ghrelin levels were measured in control and experimental animals as a change from baseline ghrelin values. Average postprocedure ghrelin values increased by 328.9 pg/dL ± 129.0 (standard deviation) in control animals and decreased by 537.9 pg/dL ± 209.6 in experimental animals (P = .004). The pattern of change in weight over time was significantly different between control and experimental animals. The average postprocedure weight gain in experimental animals was significantly lower than that in control animals (3.6 kg ± 3.8 vs 9.4 kg ± 2.8, respectively; P = .025). Bariatric embolization can significantly suppress ghrelin and significantly affect weight gain. Further study is warranted before this technique can be used routinely in humans.

Clinical and genetic predictors of weight gain in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

PubMed Central

Reddy, S M; Sadim, M; Li, J; Yi, N; Agarwal, S; Mantzoros, C S; Kaklamani, V G

2013-01-01

Background: Post-diagnosis weight gain in breast cancer patients has been associated with increased cancer recurrence and mortality. Our study was designed to identify risk factors for this weight gain and create a predictive model to identify a high-risk population for targeted interventions. Methods: Chart review was conducted on 459 breast cancer patients from Northwestern Robert H. Lurie Cancer Centre to obtain weights and body mass indices (BMIs) over an 18-month period from diagnosis. We also recorded tumour characteristics, demographics, clinical factors, and treatment regimens. Blood samples were genotyped for 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in fat mass and obesity-associated protein (FTO) and adiponectin pathway genes (ADIPOQ and ADIPOR1). Results: In all, 56% of patients had >0.5 kg m–2 increase in BMI from diagnosis to 18 months, with average BMI and weight gain of 1.9 kg m–2 and 5.1 kg, respectively. Our best predictive model was a primarily SNP-based model incorporating all 14 FTO and adiponectin pathway SNPs studied, their epistatic interactions, and age and BMI at diagnosis, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 for 18-month weight gain. Conclusion: We created a powerful risk prediction model that can identify breast cancer patients at high risk for weight gain. PMID:23922112

Modeling the effect of sedentary behaviour on the prevention of population obesity using the system dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura; Zulkepli, Jafri Hj

2015-10-01

Obesity is a medical condition where an individual has an excessive amount of body fat. There are many factors contributing to obesity and one of them is the sedentary behaviour. Rapid development in industrialization and urbanization has brought changes to Malaysia's socioeconomic, especially the lifestyles of Malaysians. With this lifestyle transition, one of the impact is on weight and obesity. How does sedentary behaviour have an impact on the growth of Malaysian population's weight and obesity? What is the most effective sedentary behaviour preventing strategy to obesity? Is it through reduction in duration or frequency of sedentary behaviour? Thus, the aim of this paper is to design an intervention to analyse the effect of decreasing duration and frequency of sedentary behaviour on the population reversion trends of average weight (AW), average body mass index (ABMI), and prevalence of overweight and obesity (POVB). This study combines the different strands of sub-models comprised of nutrition, physical activity and body metabolism, and then synthesis these knowledge into a system dynamics of weight behaviour model, namely SIMULObese. Findings from this study revealed that Malaysian's adults spend a lot of time engaged in sedentary behaviour and this resulted in weight gain and obesity. Comparing between frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour, this study reported that reduced in duration or time spend in sedentary behaviour is a better preventing strategy to obesity compared to duration. As a summary, this study highlighted the importance of decreasing the frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour in developing guidelines to prevent obesity.

A weighted least squares estimation of the polynomial regression model on paddy production in the area of Kedah and Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musa, Rosliza; Ali, Zalila; Baharum, Adam; Nor, Norlida Mohd

2017-08-01

The linear regression model assumes that all random error components are identically and independently distributed with constant variance. Hence, each data point provides equally precise information about the deterministic part of the total variation. In other words, the standard deviations of the error terms are constant over all values of the predictor variables. When the assumption of constant variance is violated, the ordinary least squares estimator of regression coefficient lost its property of minimum variance in the class of linear and unbiased estimators. Weighted least squares estimation are often used to maximize the efficiency of parameter estimation. A procedure that treats all of the data equally would give less precisely measured points more influence than they should have and would give highly precise points too little influence. Optimizing the weighted fitting criterion to find the parameter estimates allows the weights to determine the contribution of each observation to the final parameter estimates. This study used polynomial model with weighted least squares estimation to investigate paddy production of different paddy lots based on paddy cultivation characteristics and environmental characteristics in the area of Kedah and Perlis. The results indicated that factors affecting paddy production are mixture fertilizer application cycle, average temperature, the squared effect of average rainfall, the squared effect of pest and disease, the interaction between acreage with amount of mixture fertilizer, the interaction between paddy variety and NPK fertilizer application cycle and the interaction between pest and disease and NPK fertilizer application cycle.

[Study on relationship between mother's animal sourced food intake during pregnancy and neonate birth weight].

PubMed

Yan, H; Dang, S N; Mi, B B; Qu, P F; Zhang, L; Wang, H L; Bi, Y X; Zeng, L X; Li, Q; Yan, H

2017-05-10

Objective: To explore the effect of maternal animal sourced food intake during pregnancy on neonate birth weight and provide scientific basis for guiding the reasonable diet intake in pregnant women and increasing neonate birth weight. Methods: Data were derived from a cross-sectional project of"the prevalence and risk factors of birth defects in Shaanxi province" , which were conducted in 30 counties in Shaanxi province from July to November in 2013. A stratified multistage random sampling method was used to select women who were pregnant between January 2010 and December 2013 for a random semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire survey to collect the data on the frequency and amount of food consumption on animal protein sources and the data of newborns. Children aged 0-1 years and their mothers were selected as the study subjects. The generalized linear model was used to analyze the relationship between the neonate birth weight and maternal animal sourced food intake during pregnancy, and by using neonate birth weight as dependent variable, food intake frequency as independent variable, three adjustment models were established for stratified analysis. Results: Totally 11 459 participants were involved in this study. The average birth weight of newborn was (3 279.9±454.6) g, the average weekly intake of animal sourced foods was4.00 times for egg, 1.50 times for meat, 3.00 times for dairy foods, 0.50 times for fish and 5.00 times for overall animal sourced foods in pregnant women. Without stratification, three models shown that meat and overall animal sourced food intake had effects on neonate birth weight. After adjustment for gestational weeks, maternal age, social and demographic factors and others, meat intake increased by 1 time a week, the increase of neonate birth weight was about 5.26 (95 %CI : 1.32-9.20) g, and the overall animal food increased by 1 times a week, the average neonate birth weight increased by 3.24 (95 %CI : 1.09-5.39) g. Stratified analysis showed that meat and overall animal sourced food always had more influences on baby girls and those living in rural area. In the region classification, the overall animal sourced food intake had more influences on women living in northern area and Guanzhong area of Shaanxi, and meat intake had greater influence on women living in southern Shaanxi. And the influences were positive, the more animal sourced foods were taken, the greater the birth weight increased. Conclusion: Animal sourced food intake during pregnancy would benefit the increase of neonate birth weight. It suggests that pregnant women should pay more attention to the intake of animal sourced food.

The Anti-Inflammatory Effects of a Yin Zhi Huang Soup in an Experimental Autoimmune Prostatitis Rat Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xikui; Zhu, Weikun; Lu, Taikun; Chen, Jinchun; Zou, Qiang; Zheng, Qizhong; Chen, Junying; Jiang, Changming; Jin, Guanyu

2017-01-01

The present study aimed to investigate the therapeutic effects of the Chinese herbal medicine Yin Zhi Huang soup (YZS) in an experimental autoimmune prostatitis (EAP) rat model. In total, 48 rats were randomly divided into the following four groups (n = 12/group): saline group, pathological model group, Qianlietai group, and YZS group. We determined the average wet weight of the prostate tissue, the ratio of the wet weight of the prostate tissue to body weight, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) levels in the blood serum, the expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) in the rats' prostate tissues, and the pathological changes in the prostate tissue using light microscopy. YZS reduced the rats' prostate wet weight, the ratio of the prostate wet weight to body weight, and TNF-α levels in the blood serum and inhibited the expression of iNOS in the rats' prostate tissues (P < 0.05). Following YZS treatment, the pathological changes in the rats' prostates were improved compared with those in the model group (P < 0.05). Furthermore, YZS treatment reduced inflammatory changes in the prostate tissue. It also significantly suppressed proinflammatory cytokines, such as TNF-α, and chemokines, such as iNOS, in the rat model of EAP. PMID:29430255

The Anti-Inflammatory Effects of a Yin Zhi Huang Soup in an Experimental Autoimmune Prostatitis Rat Model.

PubMed

Deng, Longsheng; Zhang, Xikui; Zhu, Weikun; Lu, Taikun; Chen, Jinchun; Zou, Qiang; Zheng, Qizhong; Chen, Junying; Jiang, Changming; Jin, Guanyu

2017-01-01

The present study aimed to investigate the therapeutic effects of the Chinese herbal medicine Yin Zhi Huang soup (YZS) in an experimental autoimmune prostatitis (EAP) rat model. In total, 48 rats were randomly divided into the following four groups ( n = 12/group): saline group, pathological model group, Qianlietai group, and YZS group. We determined the average wet weight of the prostate tissue, the ratio of the wet weight of the prostate tissue to body weight, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF- α ) levels in the blood serum, the expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) in the rats' prostate tissues, and the pathological changes in the prostate tissue using light microscopy. YZS reduced the rats' prostate wet weight, the ratio of the prostate wet weight to body weight, and TNF- α levels in the blood serum and inhibited the expression of iNOS in the rats' prostate tissues ( P < 0.05). Following YZS treatment, the pathological changes in the rats' prostates were improved compared with those in the model group ( P < 0.05). Furthermore, YZS treatment reduced inflammatory changes in the prostate tissue. It also significantly suppressed proinflammatory cytokines, such as TNF- α , and chemokines, such as iNOS, in the rat model of EAP.

Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.

2014-11-01

Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural vs. model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty is far more important than model parametric uncertainty to estimate irrigation water requirement. Using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.

Effects of Vertex Activity and Self-organized Criticality Behavior on a Weighted Evolving Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Gui-Qing; Yang, Qiu-Ying; Chen, Tian-Lun

2008-08-01

Effects of vertex activity have been analyzed on a weighted evolving network. The network is characterized by the probability distribution of vertex strength, each edge weight and evolution of the strength of vertices with different vertex activities. The model exhibits self-organized criticality behavior. The probability distribution of avalanche size for different network sizes is also shown. In addition, there is a power law relation between the size and the duration of an avalanche and the average of avalanche size has been studied for different vertex activities.

Improving calibration and validation of cosmic-ray neutron sensors in the light of spatial sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrön, Martin; Köhli, Markus; Scheiffele, Lena; Iwema, Joost; Bogena, Heye R.; Lv, Ling; Martini, Edoardo; Baroni, Gabriele; Rosolem, Rafael; Weimar, Jannis; Mai, Juliane; Cuntz, Matthias; Rebmann, Corinna; Oswald, Sascha E.; Dietrich, Peter; Schmidt, Ulrich; Zacharias, Steffen

2017-10-01

In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Callahan, M.A.

Three major issues to be dealt with over the next ten years in the exposure assessment field are: consistency in terminology, the impact of computer technology on the choice of data and modeling, and conceptual issues such as the use of time-weighted averages.

A model of the productivity of the northern pintail

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, J.D.; Clark, W.R.; Klaas, E.E.

1993-01-01

We adapted a stochastic computer model to simulate productivity of the northern pintail (Anas acuta). Researchers at the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service originally developed the model to simulate productivity of the mallard (A. platyrhynchos). We obtained data and descriptive information on the breeding biology of pintails from a literature review and from discussions with waterfowl biologists. All biological parameters in the productivity component of the mallard model (e.g, initial body weights, weight loss during laying and incubation, incubation time, clutch size, nest site selection characteristics) were compared with data on pintails and adjusted accordingly. The function in the mallard model that predicts nest initiation in response to pond conditions adequately mimicked pintail behavior and did not require adjustment.Recruitment rate was most sensitive to variations in parameters that control nest success, seasonal duckling survival rate, and yearling and adult body weight. We simulated upland and wetland habitat conditions in central North Dakota and compared simulation results with observed data. Simulated numbers were not significantly different from observed numbers of successful nests during wet, average, and dry wetland conditions. The simulated effect of predator barrier fencing in a study area in central North Dakota increased recruitment rate by an average of 18.4%. This modeling synthesized existing knowledge on the breeding biology of the northern pintail, identified necessary research, and furnished a useful tool for the examination and comparison of various management options.

Postnatal Growth Patterns in a Chilean Cohort: The Role of SES and Family Environment

PubMed Central

Kang Sim, D. E.; Cappiello, M.; Castillo, M.; Lozoff, B.; Martinez, S.; Blanco, E.; Gahagan, S.

2012-01-01

Objective. This study examined how family environmental characteristics served as mediators in the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and infant growth in a cohort of Chilean infants. Methods. We studied 999 infants, born between 1991 and 1996, from a longitudinal cohort which began as an iron deficiency anemia preventive trial. SES (Graffar Index), the Life Experiences Survey, and the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (HOME) were assessed in infancy. Using path analysis, we assessed the relationships between the social factors, home environment, and infant growth. Results. During the first year, weight and length gain averaged 540 grams/month and 6.5 cm/month, respectively. In the path analysis model for weight gain, higher SES and a better physical environment were positively related to higher maternal warmth, which in turn was associated with higher average weight gain. Higher SES was directly related to higher average length gain. Conclusions. In our cohort, a direct relationship between SES and length gain developed during infancy. Higher SES was indirectly related to infant weight gain through the home environment and maternal warmth. As the fastest growing infants are at risk for later obesity, new strategies are needed to encourage optimal rather than maximal growth. PMID:22666275

Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X

2005-04-11

This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniquesmore » affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.« less

Spatial probabilistic pulsatility model for enhancing photoplethysmographic imaging systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amelard, Robert; Clausi, David A.; Wong, Alexander

2016-11-01

Photoplethysmographic imaging (PPGI) is a widefield noncontact biophotonic technology able to remotely monitor cardiovascular function over anatomical areas. Although spatial context can provide insight into physiologically relevant sampling locations, existing PPGI systems rely on coarse spatial averaging with no anatomical priors for assessing arterial pulsatility. Here, we developed a continuous probabilistic pulsatility model for importance-weighted blood pulse waveform extraction. Using a data-driven approach, the model was constructed using a 23 participant sample with a large demographic variability (11/12 female/male, age 11 to 60 years, BMI 16.4 to 35.1 kg·m-2). Using time-synchronized ground-truth blood pulse waveforms, spatial correlation priors were computed and projected into a coaligned importance-weighted Cartesian space. A modified Parzen-Rosenblatt kernel density estimation method was used to compute the continuous resolution-agnostic probabilistic pulsatility model. The model identified locations that consistently exhibited pulsatility across the sample. Blood pulse waveform signals extracted with the model exhibited significantly stronger temporal correlation (W=35,p<0.01) and spectral SNR (W=31,p<0.01) compared to uniform spatial averaging. Heart rate estimation was in strong agreement with true heart rate [r2=0.9619, error (μ,σ)=(0.52,1.69) bpm].

9 CFR 54.6 - Amount of indemnity payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... will be used. The AMS reports from the most recent week or month prior to the date APHIS offers to pay... weighted average Choice/Prime slaughter lamb price per pound at Greeley, CO; (2) The weekly weighted average Utility slaughter ewe price per pound at San Angelo, TX; (3) The monthly weighted average...

46 CFR 164.009-15 - Test procedure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... seconds. (4) The average weight loss of the specimens after heating is not more than 50 percent of their... described in paragraphs (b) through (k) of this section, except the average weight loss of the sample is... weighed while still hot. (6) The average weight loss of the specimens after heating may not be more than...

EFFECT OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE LEVELS ON WEIGHT GAIN AND GONAD PRODUCTION IN THE SEA URCHIN LYTECHINUS VARIEGATUS

PubMed Central

Heflin, Laura E.; Gibbs, Victoria K.; Powell, Mickie L; Makowsky, Robert; Lawrence, John M.; Lawrence, Addison L.; Watts, Stephen A.

2014-01-01

Adult Lytechinus variegatus were fed eight formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 12 to 36%) and carbohydrate (ranging from 21 to 39 %) levels. Each sea urchin (n = 8 per treatment) was fed a daily sub-satiation ration of 1.5% of average body weight for 9 weeks. Akaike information criterion analysis was used to compare six different hypothesized dietary composition models across eight growth measurements. Dietary protein level and protein: energy ratio were the best models for prediction of total weight gain. Diets with the highest (> 68.6 mg P kcal−-1) protein: energy ratios produced the most wet weight gain after 9 weeks. Dietary carbohydrate level was a poor predictor for most growth parameters examined in this study. However, the model containing a protein × carbohydrate interaction effect was the best model for protein efficiency ratio (PER). PER decreased with increasing dietary protein level, more so at higher carbohydrate levels. Food conversion ratio (FCR) was best modeled by total dietary energy levels: Higher energy diets produced lower FCRs. Dietary protein level was the best model of gonad wet weight gain. These data suggest that variations in dietary nutrients and energy differentially affect organismal growth and growth of body components. PMID:24994942

Determinants of postpartum weight variation in a cohort of adult women; a hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Monteiro da Silva, Maria da Conceição; Marlúcia Oliveira, Ana; Pereira Magalhães de Oliveira, Lucivalda; Silva dos Santos Fonseca, Dra Nedja; Portela de Santana, Mônica Leila; de Araújo Góes Neto, Edgar; Rodrigues Porto da Cruz, Thomaz

2013-01-01

Retention of the weight gained during pregnancy or the weight gain postpartum has been associated with increased prevalence of obesity in women of childbearing age. To identify determinants of weight variation at 24 months postpartum in women from 2 towns in Bahia, Brazil. Dynamic cohort data of 325 adult women were collected for 24 months postpartum. Weight variation at 24 months postpartum was considered a response variable. Socioeconomic, demographic, reproductive, related with childbirth variables and lifestyle conditions were considered exposure variables. A linear mixed-effects regression model with a hierarchical approach was used for data analysis. Suitable sanitary conditions in the household (2.175 kg; p = 0.001) and participation social programs for income transfer (1.300 kg; p = 0.018) contributed to weight gain in distal level of determinants, while at intermediate level, pre gestational overweight and surgical delivery had effects on postpartum weight, causing an average increase of 3.380 kg (p < 0.001) and loss of 2.451 kg (p < 0.001), respectively. At proximal level, a score point increase for breastfeeding yielded an average postpartum loss of 70 g (p = 0.002). Our results indicate the need to promote weight control during and after pregnancy, encourage extended breastfeeding, and improve living conditions through intersectoral interventions. Copyright © AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2013. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Temperature-salinity structure of the AMOC in high-resolution ocean simulations and in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Xu, X.; Chassignet, E.

2017-12-01

On average, the CMIP5 models represent the AMOC structure, water properties, Heat transport and Freshwater transport reasonably well. For temperature, CMIP5 models exhibit a colder northward upper limb and a warmer southward lower limb. the temperature contrast induces weaker heat transport than observation. For salinity, CMIP5 models exhibit saltier southward lower limb, thus contributes to weaker column freshwater transport. Models have large spread, among them, AMOC strength contributes to Heat transport but not freshwater transport. AMOC structure (the overturning depth) contributes to transport-weighted temperature not transport-weighted salinity in southward lower limb. The salinity contrast in upper and lower limb contributes to freshwater transport, but temperature contrast do not contribute to heat transport.

Using Satellite-Based Spatiotemporal Resolved Air Temperature Exposure to Study the Association between Ambient Air Temperature and Birth Outcomes in Massachusetts

PubMed Central

Melly, Steven J.; Coull, Brent A.; Nordio, Francesco; Schwartz, Joel D.

2015-01-01

Background Studies looking at air temperature (Ta) and birth outcomes are rare. Objectives We investigated the association between birth outcomes and daily Ta during various prenatal exposure periods in Massachusetts (USA) using both traditional Ta stations and modeled addresses. Methods We evaluated birth outcomes and average daily Ta during various prenatal exposure periods in Massachusetts (USA) using both traditional Ta stations and modeled address Ta. We used linear and logistic mixed models and accelerated failure time models to estimate associations between Ta and the following outcomes among live births > 22 weeks: term birth weight (≥ 37 weeks), low birth weight (LBW; < 2,500 g at term), gestational age, and preterm delivery (PT; < 37 weeks). Models were adjusted for individual-level socioeconomic status, traffic density, particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), random intercept for census tract, and mother’s health. Results Predicted Ta during multiple time windows before birth was negatively associated with birth weight: Average birth weight was 16.7 g lower (95% CI: –29.7, –3.7) in association with an interquartile range increase (8.4°C) in Ta during the last trimester. Ta over the entire pregnancy was positively associated with PT [odds ratio (OR) = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05] and LBW (OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.13). Conclusions Ta during pregnancy was associated with lower birth weight and shorter gestational age in our study population. Citation Kloog I, Melly SJ, Coull BA, Nordio F, Schwartz JD. 2015. Using satellite-based spatiotemporal resolved air temperature exposure to study the association between ambient air temperature and birth outcomes in Massachusetts. Environ Health Perspect 123:1053–1058; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1308075 PMID:25850104

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

[Crop geometry identification based on inversion of semiempirical BRDF models].

PubMed

Huang, Wen-jiang; Wang, Jin-di; Mu, Xi-han; Wang, Ji-hua; Liu, Liang-yun; Liu, Qiang; Niu, Zheng

2007-10-01

Investigations have been made on identification of erective and horizontal varieties by bidirectional canopy reflected spectrum and semi-empirical bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models. The qualitative effect of leaf area index (LAI) and average leaf angle (ALA) on crop canopy reflected spectrum was studied. The structure parameter sensitive index (SPEI) based on the weight for the volumetric kernel (fvol), the weight for the geometric kernel (fgeo), and the weight for constant corresponding to isotropic reflectance (fiso), was defined in the present study for crop geometry identification. However, the weights associated with the kernels of semi-empirical BRDF model do not have a direct relationship with measurable biophysical parameters. Therefore, efforts have focused on trying to find the relation between these semi-empirical BRDF kernel weights and various vegetation structures. SPEI was proved to be more sensitive to identify crop geometry structures than structural scattering index (SSI) and normalized difference f-index (NDFI), SPEI could be used to distinguish erective and horizontal geometry varieties. So, it is feasible to identify horizontal and erective varieties of wheat by bidirectional canopy reflected spectrum.

Weight-elimination neural networks applied to coronary surgery mortality prediction.

PubMed

Ennett, Colleen M; Frize, Monique

2003-06-01

The objective was to assess the effectiveness of the weight-elimination cost function in improving classification performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and to observe how changing the a priori distribution of the training set affects network performance. Backpropagation feedforward ANNs with and without weight-elimination estimated mortality for coronary artery surgery patients. The ANNs were trained and tested on cases with 32 input variables describing the patient's medical history; the output variable was in-hospital mortality (mortality rates: training 3.7%, test 3.8%). Artificial training sets with mortality rates of 20%, 50%, and 80% were created to observe the impact of training with a higher-than-normal prevalence. When the results were averaged, weight-elimination networks achieved higher sensitivity rates than those without weight-elimination. Networks trained on higher-than-normal prevalence achieved higher sensitivity rates at the cost of lower specificity and correct classification. The weight-elimination cost function can improve the classification performance when the network is trained with a higher-than-normal prevalence. A network trained with a moderately high artificial mortality rate (artificial mortality rate of 20%) can improve the sensitivity of the model without significantly affecting other aspects of the model's performance. The ANN mortality model achieved comparable performance as additive and statistical models for coronary surgery mortality estimation in the literature.

Design and analysis of truck body for increasing the payload capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vamshi Krishna, K.; Yugandhar Reddy, K.; Venugopal, K.; Ravi, K.

2017-11-01

Truck industry is a major source of transportation in India. With an average truck travelling about 300 kilometers per day [1], every kilogram of truck weight is of concern to the industry in order to get the best out of the truck. The main objective of this project is to increase the payload capacity of automotive truck body. Every kilogram of increased vehicle weight will decrease the vehicle payload capacity in turn increasing the manufacturing cost and reducing the fuel economy by increase the fuel consumption. With the intension of weight reduction, standard truck body has been designed and analyzed in ANSYS software. C-cross section beams were used instead of conventional rectangular box sections to reduce the weight of the body. Light-weight Aluminum alloy Al 6061 T6 is used to increase the payload capacity. The strength of the Truck platform is monitored in terms of deformation and stress concentration. These parameters will be obtained in structural analysis test condition environment. For reducing the stress concentration the concept of beams of uniform strength is used. Accordingly necessary modifications are done so that the optimized model has a better stress distribution and much lesser weight compared to the conventional model. The results obtained by analyzing the modified model are compared with the standard model.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brower, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hacket, B.; Verlaan, M.; Alvarez Fanjul, E.

2011-04-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of existing storm surge or circulation models today operational in Europe, as well as near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: - providing an easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool - generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average Technique (BMA) The system was developed and implemented within ECOOP (C.No. 036355) European Project for the NOOS and the IBIROOS regions, based on MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Both systems are today operational at Deltares and Puertos del Estado respectively. The Bayesian Modelling Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the probability that a model will give the correct forecast PDF and are determined and updated operationally based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours will be presented for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions, where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The work has proved to be useful to detect problems in some of the circulation models not previously well calibrated with sea level data, to identify the differences on baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level applications and to confirm the general improvement of the BMA forecasts.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brouwer, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hackett, B.; Verlaan, M.; Fanjul, E. A.

2012-03-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of several storm surge or circulation models and near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: 1. providing easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool; 2. generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average technique (BMA). The Bayesian Model Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the Bayesian likelihood that a model will give the correct forecast and are continuously updated based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. The system was implemented for the European Atlantic facade (IBIROOS region) and Western Mediterranean coast based on the MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours are presented for these regions where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The system is currently operational at Puertos del Estado and has proved to be useful in the detection of calibration problems in some of the circulation models, in the identification of the systematic differences between baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level forecasts and to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an overall probabilistic forecast, based on the BMA method.

24 CFR Appendix B to Part 1000 - IHBG Block Grant Formula Mechanisms

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... weighted average for AEL (NAEL). The FMR factor is also defined in § 1000.302 as the relative difference between a local area Fair Market Rent (FMR) and the national weighted average for FMR. OPSUB = [LR * LRSUB... FMR Factor weighted by national average of AEL Factor and FRM Factor. AEL FACTOR = AEL/NAEL. AEL...

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

2015-01-01

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

A system dynamics optimization framework to achieve population desired of average weight target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zulkepli, Jafri Haji; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura

2017-11-01

Obesity is becoming a serious problem in Malaysia as it has been rated as the highest among Asian countries. The aim of the paper is to propose a system dynamics (SD) optimization framework to achieve population desired weight target based on the changes in physical activity behavior and its association to weight and obesity. The system dynamics approach of stocks and flows diagram was used to quantitatively model the impact of both behavior on the population's weight and obesity trends. This work seems to bring this idea together and highlighting the interdependence of the various aspects of eating and physical activity behavior on the complex of human weight regulation system. The model was used as an experimentation vehicle to investigate the impacts of changes in physical activity on weight and prevalence of obesity implications. This framework paper provides evidence on the usefulness of SD optimization as a strategic decision making approach to assist in decision making related to obesity prevention. SD applied in this research is relatively new in Malaysia and has a high potential to apply to any feedback models that address the behavior cause to obesity.

The use of computed tomography for the estimation of DIEP flap weights in breast reconstruction: a simple mathematical formula.

PubMed

Nanidis, Theodore G; Ridha, Hyder; Jallali, Navid

2014-10-01

Estimation of the volume of abdominal tissue is desirable when planning autologous abdominal based breast reconstruction. However, this can be difficult clinically. The aim of this study was to develop a simple, yet reliable method of calculating the deep inferior epigastric artery perforator flap weight using the routine preoperative computed tomography angiogram (CTA) scan. Our mathematical formula is based on the shape of a DIEP flap resembling that of an isosceles triangular prism. Thus its volume can be calculated with a standard mathematical formula. Using bony landmarks three measurements were acquired from the CTA scan to calculate the flap weight. This was then compared to the actual flap weight harvested in both a retrospective feasibility and prospective study. In the retrospective group 17 DIEP flaps in 17 patients were analyzed. Average predicted flap weight was 667 g (range 293-1254). The average actual flap weight was 657 g (range 300-1290) giving an average percentage error of 6.8% (p-value for weight difference 0.53). In the prospective group 15 DIEP flaps in 15 patients were analyzed. Average predicted flap weight was 618 g (range 320-925). The average actual flap weight was 624 g (range 356-970) giving an average percentage error of 6.38% (p-value for weight difference 0.57). This formula is a quick, reliable and accurate way of estimating the volume of abdominal tissue using the preoperative CTA scan. Copyright © 2014 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Buying and Selling Prices of Investments: Configural Weight Model of Interactions Predicts Violations of Joint Independence.

PubMed

Birnbaum; Zimmermann

1998-05-01

Judges evaluated buying and selling prices of hypothetical investments, based on the previous price of each investment and estimates of the investment's future value given by advisors of varied expertise. Effect of a source's estimate varied in proportion to the source's expertise, and it varied inversely with the number and expertise of other sources. There was also a configural effect in which the effect of a source's estimate was affected by the rank order of that source's estimate, in relation to other estimates of the same investment. These interactions were fit with a configural weight averaging model in which buyers and sellers place different weights on estimates of different ranks. This model implies that one can design a new experiment in which there will be different violations of joint independence in different viewpoints. Experiment 2 confirmed patterns of violations of joint independence predicted from the model fit in Experiment 1. Experiment 2 also showed that preference reversals between viewpoints can be predicted by the model of Experiment 1. Configural weighting provides a better account of buying and selling prices than either of two models of loss aversion or the theory of anchoring and insufficient adjustment. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

Critical weight statistics of the random energy model and of the directed polymer on the Cayley tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monthus, Cécile; Garel, Thomas

2007-05-01

We consider the critical point of two mean-field disordered models: (i) the random energy model (REM), introduced by Derrida as a mean-field spin-glass model of N spins and (ii) the directed polymer of length N on a Cayley Tree (DPCT) with random bond energies. Both models are known to exhibit a freezing transition between a high-temperature phase where the entropy is extensive and a low-temperature phase of finite entropy, where the weight statistics coincides with the weight statistics of Lévy sums with index μ=T/Tc<1 . In this paper, we study the weight statistics at criticality via the entropy S=-∑wilnwi and the generalized moments Yk=∑wik , where the wi are the Boltzmann weights of the 2N configurations. In the REM, we find that the critical weight statistics is governed by the finite-size exponent ν=2 : the entropy scales as Smacr N(Tc)˜N1/2 , the typical values elnYk¯ decay as N-k/2 , and the disorder-averaged values Yk¯ are governed by rare events and decay as N-1/2 for any k>1 . For the DPCT, we find that the entropy scales similarly as Smacr N(Tc)˜N1/2 , whereas another exponent ν'=1 governs the Yk statistics: the typical values elnYk¯ decay as N-k , and the disorder-averaged values Yk¯ decay as N-1 for any k>1 . As a consequence, the asymptotic probability distribution π¯N=∞(q) of the overlap q , in addition to the delta function δ(q) , which bears the whole normalization, contains an isolated point at q=1 , as a memory of the delta peak (1-T/Tc)δ(q-1) of the low-temperature phase T

Interactive vs. Non-Interactive Ensembles for Weather Prediction and Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, Gregory

2013-04-01

If the members of an ensemble of different models are allowed to interact with one another in run time, predictive skill can be improved as compared to that of any individual model or any average of indvidual model outputs. Inter-model connections in such an interactive ensemble can be trained, using historical data, so that the resulting ``supermodel" synchronizes with reality when used in weather-prediction mode, where the individual models perform data assimilation from each other (with trainable inter-model "observation error") as well as from real observations. In climate-projection mode, parameters of the individual models are changed, as might occur from an increase in GHG levels, and one obtains relevant statistical properties of the new supermodel attractor. In simple cases, it has been shown that training of the inter-model connections with the old parameter values gives a supermodel that is still predictive when the parameter values are changed. Here we inquire as to the circumstances under which supermodel performance can be expected to exceed that of the customary weighted average of model outputs. We consider a supermodel formed from quasigeostrophic channel models with different forcing coefficients, and introduce an effective training scheme for the inter-model connections. We show that the blocked-zonal index cycle is reproduced better by the supermodel than by any non-interactive ensemble in the extreme case where the forcing coefficients of the different models are very large or very small. With realistic differences in forcing coefficients, as would be representative of actual differences among IPCC-class models, the usual linearity assumption is justified and a weighted average of model outputs is adequate. It is therefore hypothesized that supermodeling is likely to be useful in situations where there are qualitative model differences, as arising from sub-gridscale parameterizations, that affect overall model behavior. Otherwise the usual ex post facto averaging will probably suffice. Previous results from an ENSO-prediction supermodel [Kirtman et al.] are re-examined in light of the hypothesis about the importance of qualitative inter-model differences.

Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Multsch, S.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Kirby, M.; Viney, N. R.; Frede, H.-G.; Breuer, L.

2015-04-01

Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.

Advanced Subsonic Airplane Design and Economic Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liebeck, Robert H.; Andrastek, Donald A.; Chau, Johnny; Girvin, Raquel; Lyon, Roger; Rawdon, Blaine K.; Scott, Paul W.; Wright, Robert A.

1995-01-01

A study was made to examine the effect of advanced technology engines on the performance of subsonic airplanes and provide a vision of the potential which these advanced engines offered. The year 2005 was selected as the entry-into-service (EIS) date for engine/airframe combination. A set of four airplane classes (passenger and design range combinations) that were envisioned to span the needs for the 2005 EIS period were defined. The airframes for all classes were designed and sized using 2005 EIS advanced technology. Two airplanes were designed and sized for each class: one using current technology (1995) engines to provide a baseline, and one using advanced technology (2005) engines. The resulting engine/airframe combinations were compared and evaluated on the basis on sensitivity to basic engine performance parameters (e.g. SFC and engine weight) as well as DOC+I. The advanced technology engines provided significant reductions in fuel burn, weight, and wing area. Average values were as follows: reduction in fuel burn = 18%, reduction in wing area = 7%, and reduction in TOGW = 9%. Average DOC+I reduction was 3.5% using the pricing model based on payload-range index and 5% using the pricing model based on airframe weight. Noise and emissions were not considered.

Projected Hg dietary exposure of 3 bird species nesting on a contaminated floodplain (South River, Virginia, USA).

PubMed

Wang, Jincheng; Newman, Michael C

2013-04-01

Dietary Hg exposure was modeled for Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), Eastern song sparrow (Melospiza melodia), and Eastern screech owl (Otus asio) nesting on the contaminated South River floodplain (Virginia, USA). Parameterization of Monte-Carlo models required formal expert elicitation to define bird body weight and feeding ecology characteristics because specific information was either unavailable in the published literature or too difficult to collect reliably by field survey. Mercury concentrations and weights for candidate food items were obtained directly by field survey. Simulations predicted the probability that an adult bird during breeding season would ingest specific amounts of Hg during daily foraging and the probability that the average Hg ingestion rate for the breeding season of an adult bird would exceed published rates reported to cause harm to other birds (>100 ng total Hg/g body weight per day). Despite the extensive floodplain contamination, the probabilities that these species' average ingestion rates exceeded the threshold value were all <0.01. Sensitivity analysis indicated that overall food ingestion rate was the most important factor determining projected Hg ingestion rates. Expert elicitation was useful in providing sufficiently reliable information for Monte-Carlo simulation. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Model averaging, optimal inference, and habit formation

PubMed Central

FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.

2014-01-01

Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function—the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge—that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behavior. Bayesian model averaging—which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence—provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent's behavior should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesize that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realizable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behavior. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded) Bayesian inference, focusing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behavior. PMID:25018724

Association of cartilage degeneration with four year weight gain– 3T MRI data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

PubMed Central

Bucknor, Matthew D.; Nardo, Lorenzo; Joseph, Gabby B.; Alizai, Hamza; Srikhum, Waraporn; Nevitt, Michael C.; Lynch, John A.; McCulloch, Charles E.; Link, Thomas M.

2015-01-01

Objective To determine the effect of weight gain on progression of early knee morphologic abnormalities using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a longitudinal study over 48 months. Design We studied the right knee of 100 subjects from the Osteoarthritis Initiative, selecting subjects aged ≥ 45 with osteoarthritis risk factors who demonstrated weight gain (minimum 5% increase in body mass index, BMI, n=50) or no change in weight (BMI change < 2%, n=50), frequency matched for age, gender, and baseline BMI. Baseline and 48 month knee MRI studies were scored for lesions using a modified whole organ MRI score (WORMS). Logistic regression models were used to compare the differences between the two groups. Results The odds of worsening maximum cartilage (11.3, 95%, CI 3.5–51.4) and meniscal WORMS (4.5, 95% CI 1.4–17.3) were significantly greater in the weight gain group compared to the no change group, in addition to the odds of worsening cartilage defects at the patella and average meniscal WORMS (p<0.05). Odds of worsening average bone marrow edema pattern (BMEP) were significantly greater for the weight gain group compared to the no change cohort (p<0.05). Conclusion Our study demonstrated that weight gain is strongly associated with increased progression of cartilage degeneration in middle-aged individuals with risk factors for osteoarthritis. PMID:25591445

Computational fluid dynamics analysis of balloon-expandable coronary stents: influence of stent and vessel deformation.

PubMed

Martin, David M; Murphy, Eoin A; Boyle, Fergal J

2014-08-01

In many computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of stented vessel haemodynamics, the geometry of the stented vessel is described using non-deformed (NDF) geometrical models. These NDF models neglect complex physical features, such as stent and vessel deformation, which may have a major impact on the haemodynamic environment in stented coronary arteries. In this study, CFD analyses were carried out to simulate pulsatile flow conditions in both NDF and realistically-deformed (RDF) models of three stented coronary arteries. While the NDF models were completely idealised, the RDF models were obtained from nonlinear structural analyses and accounted for both stent and vessel deformation. Following the completion of the CFD analyses, major differences were observed in the time-averaged wall shear stress (TAWSS), time-averaged wall shear stress gradient (TAWSSG) and oscillatory shear index (OSI) distributions predicted on the luminal surface of the artery for the NDF and RDF models. Specifically, the inclusion of stent and vessel deformation in the CFD analyses resulted in a 32%, 30% and 31% increase in the area-weighted mean TAWSS, a 3%, 7% and 16% increase in the area-weighted mean TAWSSG and a 21%, 13% and 21% decrease in the area-weighted mean OSI for Stents A, B and C, respectively. These results suggest that stent and vessel deformation are likely to have a major impact on the haemodynamic environment in stented coronary arteries. In light of this observation, it is recommended that these features are considered in future CFD studies of stented vessel haemodynamics. Copyright © 2014 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Herd-of-origin effect on the post-weaning performance of centrally tested Nellore beef cattle.

PubMed

de Rezende Neves, Haroldo Henrique; Polin dos Reis, Felipe; Motta Paterno, Flávia; Rocha Guarini, Aline; Carvalheiro, Roberto; da Silva, Lilian Regina; de Oliveira, João Ademir; Aidar de Queiroz, Sandra

2014-10-01

The objective of a performance test station is to evaluate the performance of potential breeding bulls earlier in order to decrease the generation interval and increase genetic gain as well. This study evaluates the herd-of-origin influence on end-of-test weight (ETW), average daily weight gain during testing (ADG), average daily weight gain during the adjustment period (ADGadj), rib eye area (REA), marbling (MARB), subcutaneous fat thickness (SFT), conformation (C), early finishing (EF), muscling (M), navel (N) and temperament (T) scores, and scrotal circumference (SC) of Nellore cattle that underwent a performance test. We evaluated 664 animals that participated in the performance tests conducted at the Center for Performance CRV Lagoa between 2007 and 2012. Components of variance for each trait were estimated by an animal model (model 1), using the restricted maximum likelihood method. An alternative animal model (model 2) included, in addition to the fixed effects present in S1, the non-correlated random effect of herd-year (HY). A significant HY effect was observed on ETW, REA, SFT, ADGadj, C, and Cw (p < 0.05). The estimated heritability of all traits decreased when the HY effect was included in the model; also, the bull rank, in deciles, changed significantly for traits ETW, REA, SFT, and C. The adjustment period did not completely remove the environmental effect of herd of origin on ETW, REA, SFT, and C. It is recommended that the herd-of-origin effect should be included in the statistical models used to predict the breeding values of the participants of these performance tests.

Measuring Household Vulnerability: A Fuzzy Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sethi, G.; Pierce, S. A.

2016-12-01

This research develops an index of vulnerability for Ugandan households using a variety of economic, social and environmental variables with two objectives. First, there is only a small body of research that measures household vulnerability. Given the stresses faced by households susceptible to water, environment, food, livelihood, energy, and health security concerns, it is critical that they be identified in order to make effective policy. We draw on the socio-ecological systems (SES) framework described by Ostrom (2009) and adapt the model developed by from Giupponi, Giove, and Giannini (2013) to develop a composite measure. Second, most indices in the literature are linear in nature, relying on simple weighted averages. In this research, we contrast the results obtained by a simple weighted average with those obtained by using the Choquet integral. The Choquet integral is a fuzzy measure, and is based on the generalization of the Lebesgue integral. Due to its non-additive nature, the Choquet integral offers a more general approach. Our results reveal that all households included in this study are highly vulnerable, and that vulnerability scores obtained by the fuzzy approach are significantly different from those obtained by using the simple weighted average (p = 9.46e-160).

Bayesian model averaging using particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling: Theory, concepts, and simulation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rings, Joerg; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Schoups, Gerrit; Huisman, Johan A.; Vereecken, Harry

2012-05-01

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different models. In recent years, this method has enjoyed widespread application and use in many fields of study to improve the spread-skill relationship of forecast ensembles. The BMA predictive probability density function (pdf) of any quantity of interest is a weighted average of pdfs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal to posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts, and reflect the individual models skill over a training (calibration) period. The original BMA approach presented by Raftery et al. (2005) assumes that the conditional pdf of each individual model is adequately described with a rather standard Gaussian or Gamma statistical distribution, possibly with a heteroscedastic variance. Here we analyze the advantages of using BMA with a flexible representation of the conditional pdf. A joint particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling framework is presented to derive analytically, as closely and consistently as possible, the evolving forecast density (conditional pdf) of each constituent ensemble member. The median forecasts and evolving conditional pdfs of the constituent models are subsequently combined using BMA to derive one overall predictive distribution. This paper introduces the theory and concepts of this new ensemble postprocessing method, and demonstrates its usefulness and applicability by numerical simulation of the rainfall-runoff transformation using discharge data from three different catchments in the contiguous United States. The revised BMA method receives significantly lower-prediction errors than the original default BMA method (due to filtering) with predictive uncertainty intervals that are substantially smaller but still statistically coherent (due to the use of a time-variant conditional pdf).

Price of Fairness in Kidney Exchange

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

solver uses branch-and-price, a technique that proves optimality by in- crementally generating only a small part of the model during tree search [8...factors like fail- ure probability and chain position, as in the probabilistic model ). We will use this multiplicative re-weighting in our experiments in...Table 2 gives the average loss in efficiency for each of these models over multiple generated pool sizes, with 40 runs per pool size per model , under

Characterization of gizzards and grits of wild cranes found dead at Izumi Plain in Japan

PubMed Central

UEGOMORI, Mima; HARAGUCHI, Yuko; OBI, Takeshi; TAKASE, Kozo

2018-01-01

We analyzed the gizzards, and grits retained in the gizzards of 41 cranes that migrated to the Izumi Plain during the winter of 2015/2016 and died there, either due to accident or disease. These included 31 Hooded Cranes (Grus monacha) and 10 White-naped Cranes (G. vipio). We determined body weight, gizzard weight, total grit weight and number per gizzard, and size, shape, and surface roundness of the grits. Average gizzard weights were 92.4 g for Hooded Cranes and 97.1 g for White-naped Cranes, and gizzard weight positively correlated with body weight in both species. Average total grit weights per gizzard were 19.7 g in Hooded Cranes and 25.7 g in White-naped Cranes, and were significantly higher in the latter. Average percentages of body weight to grit weight were 0.8% in Hooded Cranes and 0.5% in White-naped Cranes. Average grit number per gizzard was 693.5 in Hooded Cranes and 924.2 in White-naped Cranes, and were significantly higher in the latter. The average grit size was 2.8 mm in both species. No differences were found in the shape and surface roundness of grits between the two species. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on the grits retained in the gizzards of Hooded and White-naped Cranes. PMID:29503349

Characterization of gizzards and grits of wild cranes found dead at Izumi Plain in Japan.

PubMed

Uegomori, Mima; Haraguchi, Yuko; Obi, Takeshi; Takase, Kozo

2018-04-18

We analyzed the gizzards, and grits retained in the gizzards of 41 cranes that migrated to the Izumi Plain during the winter of 2015/2016 and died there, either due to accident or disease. These included 31 Hooded Cranes (Grus monacha) and 10 White-naped Cranes (G. vipio). We determined body weight, gizzard weight, total grit weight and number per gizzard, and size, shape, and surface roundness of the grits. Average gizzard weights were 92.4 g for Hooded Cranes and 97.1 g for White-naped Cranes, and gizzard weight positively correlated with body weight in both species. Average total grit weights per gizzard were 19.7 g in Hooded Cranes and 25.7 g in White-naped Cranes, and were significantly higher in the latter. Average percentages of body weight to grit weight were 0.8% in Hooded Cranes and 0.5% in White-naped Cranes. Average grit number per gizzard was 693.5 in Hooded Cranes and 924.2 in White-naped Cranes, and were significantly higher in the latter. The average grit size was 2.8 mm in both species. No differences were found in the shape and surface roundness of grits between the two species. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on the grits retained in the gizzards of Hooded and White-naped Cranes.

76 FR 28998 - Implementation of Revised Passenger Weight Standards for Existing Passenger Vessels

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-19

... Inspection prior to a change in the assumed average weight per person standard that will become effective in... several factors, including the total weight of people carried based on an Assumed Average Weight per... reason, the policy letter referred to in this notice provides supplemental guidance to the implementation...

Simulated Annealing Based Hybrid Forecast for Improving Daily Municipal Solid Waste Generation Prediction

PubMed Central

Song, Jingwei; He, Jiaying; Zhu, Menghua; Tan, Debao; Zhang, Yu; Ye, Song; Shen, Dingtao; Zou, Pengfei

2014-01-01

A simulated annealing (SA) based variable weighted forecast model is proposed to combine and weigh local chaotic model, artificial neural network (ANN), and partial least square support vector machine (PLS-SVM) to build a more accurate forecast model. The hybrid model was built and multistep ahead prediction ability was tested based on daily MSW generation data from Seattle, Washington, the United States. The hybrid forecast model was proved to produce more accurate and reliable results and to degrade less in longer predictions than three individual models. The average one-week step ahead prediction has been raised from 11.21% (chaotic model), 12.93% (ANN), and 12.94% (PLS-SVM) to 9.38%. Five-week average has been raised from 13.02% (chaotic model), 15.69% (ANN), and 15.92% (PLS-SVM) to 11.27%. PMID:25301508

Menu labeling as a potential strategy for combating the obesity epidemic: a health impact assessment.

PubMed

Kuo, Tony; Jarosz, Christopher J; Simon, Paul; Fielding, Jonathan E

2009-09-01

We conducted a health impact assessment to quantify the potential impact of a state menu-labeling law on population weight gain in Los Angeles County, California. We utilized published and unpublished data to model consumer response to point-of-purchase calorie postings at large chain restaurants in Los Angeles County. We conducted sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in consumer response and in the total annual revenue, market share, and average meal price of large chain restaurants in the county. Assuming that 10% of the restaurant patrons would order reduced-calorie meals in response to calorie postings, resulting in an average reduction of 100 calories per meal, we estimated that menu labeling would avert 40.6% of the 6.75 million pound average annual weight gain in the county population aged 5 years and older. Substantially larger impacts would be realized if higher percentages of patrons ordered reduced-calorie meals or if average per-meal calorie reductions increased. Our findings suggest that mandated menu labeling could have a sizable salutary impact on the obesity epidemic, even with only modest changes in consumer behavior.

Relationship between health services, socioeconomic variables and inadequate weight gain among Brazilian children.

PubMed Central

de Souza, A. C.; Peterson, K. E.; Cufino, E.; Gardner, J.; Craveiro, M. V.; Ascherio, A.

1999-01-01

This ecological analysis assessed the relative contribution of behavioural, health services and socioeconomic variables to inadequate weight gain in infants (0-11 months) and children (12-23 months) in 140 municipalities in the State of Ceara, north-east Brazil. To assess the total effect of selected variables, we fitted three unique sets of multivariate linear regression models to the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and in children. The final predictive models included variables from the three sets. Findings showed that participation in growth monitoring and urbanization were inversely and significantly associated with the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants, accounting for 38.3% of the variation. Female illiteracy rate, participation in growth monitoring and degree of urbanization were all positively associated with prevalence of inadequate weight gain in children. Together, these factors explained 25.6% of the variation. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce the average municipality-specific female illiteracy rate, in combination with participation in growth monitoring, may be effective in reducing municipality-level prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and children in Ceara. PMID:10612885

Relationship between health services, socioeconomic variables and inadequate weight gain among Brazilian children.

PubMed

de Souza, A C; Peterson, K E; Cufino, E; Gardner, J; Craveiro, M V; Ascherio, A

1999-01-01

This ecological analysis assessed the relative contribution of behavioural, health services and socioeconomic variables to inadequate weight gain in infants (0-11 months) and children (12-23 months) in 140 municipalities in the State of Ceara, north-east Brazil. To assess the total effect of selected variables, we fitted three unique sets of multivariate linear regression models to the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and in children. The final predictive models included variables from the three sets. Findings showed that participation in growth monitoring and urbanization were inversely and significantly associated with the prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants, accounting for 38.3% of the variation. Female illiteracy rate, participation in growth monitoring and degree of urbanization were all positively associated with prevalence of inadequate weight gain in children. Together, these factors explained 25.6% of the variation. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce the average municipality-specific female illiteracy rate, in combination with participation in growth monitoring, may be effective in reducing municipality-level prevalence of inadequate weight gain in infants and children in Ceara.

Anthropometric characteristics of primary school-aged children: accuracy of perception and differences by gender, age and BMI.

PubMed

Cattelino, E; Bina, M; Skanjeti, A M; Calandri, E

2015-11-01

Body perception has been mainly studied in adolescents and adults in relation to eating disorders and obesity because such conditions are usually associated with distortion in the perception of body size. The development of body perception in children was rather neglected despite the relevance of this issue in understanding the aetiology of health eating problems. The main aim of this study was to investigate body weight and body height perception in children by gender, age and body mass index (BMI), taking into account differences among underweight, healthy weight, overweight and obese children. A school-based sample of 572 Italian children (49% boys) aged 6-10 were involved in a cross-sectional survey. Current weight and height were measured by standard protocols, and BMI was calculated and converted in centile categories using the Italian growth curves for children. Perceived weight and height were assessed using visual methods (figures representing children of different weight and height). About a third of the children do not show to have an accurate perception of their weight and height (weight: 36%; height: 32%): as for weight, an error of underestimation prevails and as for height, an error of overestimation prevails. In general, children who have different weight and height from the average tend to perceive their physical characteristics closer to average. However, overweight children underestimate their weight much more than obese children. Distortions in the perception of their physical features, weight and height, appear to be related to the aesthetic models of Western culture. The tendency to underestimate weight, particularly in overweight children, has implications in interventions for health promotion and healthy lifestyle in school-aged children. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of free-breathing with navigator-controlled acquisition regimes in abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images: Effect on ADC and IVIM statistics.

PubMed

Jerome, Neil P; Orton, Matthew R; d'Arcy, James A; Collins, David J; Koh, Dow-Mu; Leach, Martin O

2014-01-01

To evaluate the effect on diffusion-weighted image-derived parameters in the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and intra-voxel incoherent motion (IVIM) models from choice of either free-breathing or navigator-controlled acquisition. Imaging was performed with consent from healthy volunteers (n = 10) on a 1.5T Siemens Avanto scanner. Parameter-matched free-breathing and navigator-controlled diffusion-weighted images were acquired, without averaging in the console, for a total scan time of ∼10 minutes. Regions of interest were drawn for renal cortex, renal pyramid, whole kidney, liver, spleen, and paraspinal muscle. An ADC diffusion model for these regions was fitted for b-values ≥ 250 s/mm(2) , using a Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, and an IVIM model was fitted for all images using a Bayesian method. ADC and IVIM parameters from the two acquisition regimes show no significant differences for the cohort; individual cases show occasional discrepancies, with outliers in parameter estimates arising more commonly from navigator-controlled scans. The navigator-controlled acquisitions showed, on average, a smaller range of movement for the kidneys (6.0 ± 1.4 vs. 10.0 ± 1.7 mm, P = 0.03), but also a smaller number of averages collected (3.9 ± 0.1 vs. 5.5 ± 0.2, P < 0.01) in the allocated time. Navigator triggering offers no advantage in fitted diffusion parameters, whereas free-breathing appears to offer greater confidence in fitted diffusion parameters, with fewer outliers, for matched acquisition periods. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ergodicity of financial indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolesnikov, A. V.; Rühl, T.

2010-05-01

We introduce the concept of the ensemble averaging for financial markets. We address the question of equality of ensemble and time averaging in their sequence and investigate if these averagings are equivalent for large amount of equity indices and branches. We start with the model of Gaussian-distributed returns, equal-weighted stocks in each index and absence of correlations within a single day and show that even this oversimplified model captures already the run of the corresponding index reasonably well due to its self-averaging properties. We introduce the concept of the instant cross-sectional volatility and discuss its relation to the ordinary time-resolved counterpart. The role of the cross-sectional volatility for the description of the corresponding index as well as the role of correlations between the single stocks and the role of non-Gaussianity of stock distributions is briefly discussed. Our model reveals quickly and efficiently some anomalies or bubbles in a particular financial market and gives an estimate of how large these effects can be and how quickly they disappear.

Simulation of quitting smoking in the military shows higher lifetime medical spending more than offset by productivity gains.

PubMed

Yang, Wenya; Dall, Timothy M; Zhang, Yiduo; Zhang, Shiping; Arday, David R; Dorn, Patricia W; Jain, Anjali

2012-12-01

Despite the documented benefits of quitting smoking, studies have found that smokers who quit may have higher lifetime medical costs, in part because of increased risk for medical conditions, such as type 2 diabetes, brought on by associated weight gain. Using a simulation model and data on 612,332 adult smokers in the US Department of Defense's TRICARE Prime health plan in 2008, we estimated that cessation accompanied by weight gain would increase average life expectancy by 3.7 years, and that the average lifetime reduction in medical expenditures from improved health ($5,600) would be offset by additional expenditures resulting from prolonged life ($7,300). Results varied by age and sex: For females ages 18-44 at time of cessation, there would be net savings of $1,200 despite additional medical expenditures from prolonged life. Avoidance of weight gain after quitting smoking would increase average life expectancy by four additional months and reduce mean extra spending resulting from prolonged life by $700. Overall, the average net lifetime health care cost increase of $1,700 or less per ex-smoker would be modest and, for employed people, more than offset by even one year's worth of productivity gains. These results boost the case for smoking cessation programs in the military in particular, along with not selling cigarettes in commissaries or at reduced prices.

A comparative study on generating simulated Landsat NDVI images using data fusion and regression method-the case of the Korean Peninsula.

PubMed

Lee, Mi Hee; Lee, Soo Bong; Eo, Yang Dam; Kim, Sun Woong; Woo, Jung-Hun; Han, Soo Hee

2017-07-01

Landsat optical images have enough spatial and spectral resolution to analyze vegetation growth characteristics. But, the clouds and water vapor degrade the image quality quite often, which limits the availability of usable images for the time series vegetation vitality measurement. To overcome this shortcoming, simulated images are used as an alternative. In this study, weighted average method, spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM) method, and multilinear regression analysis method have been tested to produce simulated Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images of the Korean Peninsula. The test results showed that the weighted average method produced the images most similar to the actual images, provided that the images were available within 1 month before and after the target date. The STARFM method gives good results when the input image date is close to the target date. Careful regional and seasonal consideration is required in selecting input images. During summer season, due to clouds, it is very difficult to get the images close enough to the target date. Multilinear regression analysis gives meaningful results even when the input image date is not so close to the target date. Average R 2 values for weighted average method, STARFM, and multilinear regression analysis were 0.741, 0.70, and 0.61, respectively.

Ethnic Differences in Gestational Weight Gain: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Norway.

PubMed

Kinnunen, Tarja I; Waage, Christin W; Sommer, Christine; Sletner, Line; Raitanen, Jani; Jenum, Anne Karen

2016-07-01

Objectives To explore ethnic differences in gestational weight gain (GWG). Methods This was a population-based cohort study conducted in primary care child health clinics in Groruddalen, Oslo, Norway. Participants were healthy pregnant women (n = 632) categorised to six ethnic groups (43 % were Western European women, the reference group). Body weight was measured at 15 and 28 weeks' gestation on average. Data on pre-pregnancy weight and total GWG until delivery were self-reported. The main method of analysis was linear regression adjusting for age, weeks' gestation, pre-pregnancy body mass index, education and severe nausea. Results No ethnic differences were observed in GWG by 15 weeks' gestation. By 28 weeks' gestation, Eastern European women had gained 2.71 kg (95 % confidence interval, CI 1.10-4.33) and Middle Eastern women 1.32 kg (95 % CI 0.14-2.50) more weight on average than the Western European women in the fully adjusted model. Among Eastern European women, the total adjusted GWG was 3.47 kg (95 % CI 1.33-5.61) above the reference group. Other ethnic groups (South Asian, East Asian and African) did not differ from the reference group. When including non-smokers (n = 522) only, observed between-group differences increased and Middle Eastern women gained more weight than the reference group by all time points. Conclusions Eastern European and Middle Eastern women had higher GWG on average than Western European women, especially among the non-smokers. Although prevention of excessive GWG is important for all pregnant women, these ethnic groups might need special attention during pregnancy.

Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Hamre, Børge

2017-09-01

Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400-900 nm) were found to be on average 0.15-0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39-0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice). This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL) increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

Compatible estimators of the components of change for a rotating panel forest inventory design

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

2007-01-01

This article presents two approaches for estimating the components of forest change utilizing data from a rotating panel sample design. One approach uses a variant of the exponentially weighted moving average estimator and the other approach uses mixed estimation. Three general transition models were each combined with a single compatibility model for the mixed...

Procedure for the Selection and Validation of a Calibration Model I-Description and Application.

PubMed

Desharnais, Brigitte; Camirand-Lemyre, Félix; Mireault, Pascal; Skinner, Cameron D

2017-05-01

Calibration model selection is required for all quantitative methods in toxicology and more broadly in bioanalysis. This typically involves selecting the equation order (quadratic or linear) and weighting factor correctly modelizing the data. A mis-selection of the calibration model will generate lower quality control (QC) accuracy, with an error up to 154%. Unfortunately, simple tools to perform this selection and tests to validate the resulting model are lacking. We present a stepwise, analyst-independent scheme for selection and validation of calibration models. The success rate of this scheme is on average 40% higher than a traditional "fit and check the QCs accuracy" method of selecting the calibration model. Moreover, the process was completely automated through a script (available in Supplemental Data 3) running in RStudio (free, open-source software). The need for weighting was assessed through an F-test using the variances of the upper limit of quantification and lower limit of quantification replicate measurements. When weighting was required, the choice between 1/x and 1/x2 was determined by calculating which option generated the smallest spread of weighted normalized variances. Finally, model order was selected through a partial F-test. The chosen calibration model was validated through Cramer-von Mises or Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality testing of the standardized residuals. Performance of the different tests was assessed using 50 simulated data sets per possible calibration model (e.g., linear-no weight, quadratic-no weight, linear-1/x, etc.). This first of two papers describes the tests, procedures and outcomes of the developed procedure using real LC-MS-MS results for the quantification of cocaine and naltrexone. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Clinical and Economic Impact of a Digital, Remotely-Delivered Intensive Behavioral Counseling Program on Medicare Beneficiaries at Risk for Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Chen, Fang; Su, Wenqing; Becker, Shawn H; Payne, Mike; Castro Sweet, Cynthia M; Peters, Anne L; Dall, Timothy M

2016-01-01

Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease impose substantial clinical and economic burdens for seniors (age 65 and above) and the Medicare program. Intensive Behavioral Counseling (IBC) interventions like the National Diabetes Prevention Program (NDPP), have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing excess body weight and lowering or delaying morbidity onset. This paper estimated the potential health implications and medical savings of a digital version of IBC modeled after the NDPP. Participants in this digital IBC intervention, the Omada program, include 1,121 overweight or obese seniors with additional risk factors for diabetes or heart disease. Weight changes were objectively measured via participant use of a networked weight scale. Participants averaged 6.8% reduction in body weight within 26 weeks, and 89% of participants completed 9 or more of the 16 core phase lessons. We used a Markov-based microsimulation model to simulate the impact of weight loss on future health states and medical expenditures over 10 years. Cumulative per capita medical expenditure savings over 3, 5 and 10 years ranged from $1,720 to 1,770 (3 years), $3,840 to $4,240 (5 years) and $11,550 to $14,200 (10 years). The range reflects assumptions of weight re-gain similar to that seen in the DPP clinical trial (lower bound) or minimal weight re-gain aligned with age-adjusted national averages (upper bound). The estimated net economic benefit after IBC costs is $10,250 to $12,840 cumulative over 10 years. Simulation outcomes suggest reduced incidence of diabetes by 27-41% for participants with prediabetes, and stroke by approximately 15% over 5 years. A digital, remotely-delivered IBC program can help seniors at risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease achieve significant weight loss, reduces risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and achieve meaningful medical cost savings. These findings affirm recommendations for IBC coverage by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

Modeling Reduction of Uranium U(VI) under Variable Sulfate Concentrations by Sulfate-Reducing Bacteria

PubMed Central

Spear, John R.; Figueroa, Linda A.; Honeyman, Bruce D.

2000-01-01

The kinetics for the reduction of sulfate alone and for concurrent uranium [U(VI)] and sulfate reduction, by mixed and pure cultures of sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) at 21 ± 3°C were studied. The mixed culture contained the SRB Desulfovibrio vulgaris along with a Clostridium sp. determined via 16S ribosomal DNA analysis. The pure culture was Desulfovibrio desulfuricans (ATCC 7757). A zero-order model best fit the data for the reduction of sulfate from 0.1 to 10 mM. A lag time occurred below cell concentrations of 0.1 mg (dry weight) of cells/ml. For the mixed culture, average values for the maximum specific reaction rate, Vmax, ranged from 2.4 ± 0.2 μmol of sulfate/mg (dry weight) of SRB · h−1) at 0.25 mM sulfate to 5.0 ± 1.1 μmol of sulfate/mg (dry weight) of SRB · h−1 at 10 mM sulfate (average cell concentration, 0.52 mg [dry weight]/ml). For the pure culture, Vmax was 1.6 ± 0.2 μmol of sulfate/mg (dry weight) of SRB · h−1 at 1 mM sulfate (0.29 mg [dry weight] of cells/ml). When both electron acceptors were present, sulfate reduction remained zero order for both cultures, while uranium reduction was first order, with rate constants of 0.071 ± 0.003 mg (dry weight) of cells/ml · min−1 for the mixed culture and 0.137 ± 0.016 mg (dry weight) of cells/ml · min−1 (U0 = 1 mM) for the D. desulfuricans culture. Both cultures exhibited a faster rate of uranium reduction in the presence of sulfate and no lag time until the onset of U reduction in contrast to U alone. This kinetics information can be used to design an SRB-dominated biotreatment scheme for the removal of U(VI) from an aqueous source. PMID:10966381

Causal inference with measurement error in outcomes: Bias analysis and estimation methods.

PubMed

Shu, Di; Yi, Grace Y

2017-01-01

Inverse probability weighting estimation has been popularly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect. Its validity, however, is challenged by the presence of error-prone variables. In this paper, we explore the inverse probability weighting estimation with mismeasured outcome variables. We study the impact of measurement error for both continuous and discrete outcome variables and reveal interesting consequences of the naive analysis which ignores measurement error. When a continuous outcome variable is mismeasured under an additive measurement error model, the naive analysis may still yield a consistent estimator; when the outcome is binary, we derive the asymptotic bias in a closed-form. Furthermore, we develop consistent estimation procedures for practical scenarios where either validation data or replicates are available. With validation data, we propose an efficient method for estimation of average treatment effect; the efficiency gain is substantial relative to usual methods of using validation data. To provide protection against model misspecification, we further propose a doubly robust estimator which is consistent even when either the treatment model or the outcome model is misspecified. Simulation studies are reported to assess the performance of the proposed methods. An application to a smoking cessation dataset is presented.

A novel methodology for interpreting air quality measurements from urban streets using CFD modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solazzo, Efisio; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Cai, Xiaoming

2011-09-01

In this study, a novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based methodology has been developed to interpret long-term averaged measurements of pollutant concentrations collected at roadside locations. The methodology is applied to the analysis of pollutant dispersion in Stratford Road (SR), a busy street canyon in Birmingham (UK), where a one-year sampling campaign was carried out between August 2005 and July 2006. Firstly, a number of dispersion scenarios are defined by combining sets of synoptic wind velocity and direction. Assuming neutral atmospheric stability, CFD simulations are conducted for all the scenarios, by applying the standard k-ɛ turbulence model, with the aim of creating a database of normalised pollutant concentrations at specific locations within the street. Modelled concentration for all wind scenarios were compared with hourly observed NO x data. In order to compare with long-term averaged measurements, a weighted average of the CFD-calculated concentration fields was derived, with the weighting coefficients being proportional to the frequency of each scenario observed during the examined period (either monthly or annually). In summary the methodology consists of (i) identifying the main dispersion scenarios for the street based on wind speed and directions data, (ii) creating a database of CFD-calculated concentration fields for the identified dispersion scenarios, and (iii) combining the CFD results based on the frequency of occurrence of each dispersion scenario during the examined period. The methodology has been applied to calculate monthly and annually averaged benzene concentration at several locations within the street canyon so that a direct comparison with observations could be made. The results of this study indicate that, within the simplifying assumption of non-buoyant flow, CFD modelling can aid understanding of long-term air quality measurements, and help assessing the representativeness of monitoring locations for population exposure studies.

DSSPcont: continuous secondary structure assignments for proteins

PubMed Central

Carter, Phil; Andersen, Claus A. F.; Rost, Burkhard

2003-01-01

The DSSP program automatically assigns the secondary structure for each residue from the three-dimensional co-ordinates of a protein structure to one of eight states. However, discrete assignments are incomplete in that they cannot capture the continuum of thermal fluctuations. Therefore, DSSPcont (http://cubic.bioc.columbia.edu/services/DSSPcont) introduces a continuous assignment of secondary structure that replaces ‘static’ by ‘dynamic’ states. Technically, the continuum results from calculating weighted averages over 10 discrete DSSP assignments with different hydrogen bond thresholds. A DSSPcont assignment for a particular residue is a percentage likelihood of eight secondary structure states, derived from a weighted average of the ten DSSP assignments. The continuous assignments have two important features: (i) they reflect the structural variations due to thermal fluctuations as detected by NMR spectroscopy; and (ii) they reproduce the structural variation between many NMR models from one single model. Therefore, functionally important variation can be extracted from a single X-ray structure using the continuous assignment procedure. PMID:12824310

Persistence of lower birth weight in second generation South Asian babies born in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Margetts, B; Mohd, Y; Al, D; Jackson, A

2002-01-01

Objective: To assess differences in birth weight between all first and second generation South Asian babies born in Southampton, and trends since 1957. Design: Retrospective, cohort study. Setting: Birth records for babies born in Southampton from 1957 to 1996 were searched to identify all babies born of South Asian origin (including from the Indian subcontinent, East Africa, and elsewhere). Main outcome measures: All information recorded in the birth record about the mother and baby was extracted. Results: 2395 full term (>37 weeks; mean birth weight 3110; 95%CI 3092 to 3129) singleton births were identified. Detailed analysis was restricted to mothers either born in the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, or Bangladesh (1435)) or United Kingdom (283). Mean birth weight and % low birth weight (<2500 g) were 3133 g (95%CI 3108 to 3157) and 7.5%, for first generation babies and 3046 g (2992 to 3099) and 11.7% for second generation babies. There was no trend over time to increased average birth weight in either first or second generation babies. Adjusting for other factors that were statistically significantly related to birth weight (gender, gestational age, mother's age, maternal weight at 15 weeks, parity, and mother's ethnic group) did not alter the trends. Conclusions: For that group in the UK who derive from the Indian subcontinent, average birth weight is significantly less than the national average. There has not been any increase in the average birth weight over the past 40 years, and the birth weight of babies of women who were born in the UK are no greater. The persistence of lower than desirable birth weight may result long term in higher than average rates of diabetes and heart disease in these groups. PMID:12177085

Persistence of lower birth weight in second generation South Asian babies born in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Margetts, B M; Mohd Yusof, S; Al Dallal, Z; Jackson, A A

2002-09-01

To assess differences in birth weight between all first and second generation South Asian babies born in Southampton, and trends since 1957. Retrospective, cohort study. Birth records for babies born in Southampton from 1957 to 1996 were searched to identify all babies born of South Asian origin (including from the Indian subcontinent, East Africa, and elsewhere). All information recorded in the birth record about the mother and baby was extracted. 2395 full term (>37 weeks; mean birth weight 3110; 95%CI 3092 to 3129) singleton births were identified. Detailed analysis was restricted to mothers either born in the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, or Bangladesh (1435)) or United Kingdom (283). Mean birth weight and % low birth weight (<2500 g) were 3133 g (95%CI 3108 to 3157) and 7.5%, for first generation babies and 3046 g (2992 to 3099) and 11.7% for second generation babies. There was no trend over time to increased average birth weight in either first or second generation babies. Adjusting for other factors that were statistically significantly related to birth weight (gender, gestational age, mother's age, maternal weight at 15 weeks, parity, and mother's ethnic group) did not alter the trends. For that group in the UK who derive from the Indian subcontinent, average birth weight is significantly less than the national average. There has not been any increase in the average birth weight over the past 40 years, and the birth weight of babies of women who were born in the UK are no greater. The persistence of lower than desirable birth weight may result long term in higher than average rates of diabetes and heart disease in these groups.

Obesity and weight change related to parity and breast-feeding among parous women in Brazil.

PubMed

Coitinho, D C; Sichieri, R; D'Aquino Benício, M H

2001-08-01

Studies on the independent role of parity in long-term body weight change in economically developing countries are scarce and inconclusive, and only a few studies have taken into account patterns of breast-feeding. This association was examined in a national cross-sectional survey representative of Brazilian parous women. The survey conducted in 1996 measured women's height and weight in the household and data on weight prior to the first pregnancy, parity and breast-feeding were recalled. A sample of 2338 parous women, 15 to 49 years of age, 29 months after last delivery on average, had current body mass index (BMI, in kg m(-2)) modelled through hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis. Explanatory variables included parity, days of predominant breast-feeding, BMI pre-pregnancy, socio-economic, geographic, demographic and other reproductive variables. Prevalences of overweight (BMI = 25.0-29.9 kg m(-2)) and obesity (BMI > or = 30.0 kg m(-2)) were 25.2% and 9.3%. The overall mean weight gain per year after the first pregnancy was 0.90 kg for an average time since first pregnancy of eight years. BMI pre-pregnancy modified the association between current BMI and parity. Therefore, weight change attributed to parity calculated for a woman of average height (1.56 m) was 0.60 kg greater for primiparous women with a BMI pre-pregnancy of 30 kg m(-2), compared with women with BMI pre-pregnancy of 25 kg m(-2). This greater weight retention among obese women was 1.21 kg for women with two children and 1.82 kg for women with three or more children. Parity reduced the effect of weight loss associated with lactation (1.75 kg for six months of lactation among primiparous women and 0.87 kg among women with three or more children). For the sub-sample of 793 primiparous women, a weight decrease of 300 g was associated with each month of predominant breast-feeding for all prior BMI levels. In this study, weight change associated to reproduction was highly dependent on BMI previous to pregnancy and the effects of parity and lactation were small.

Dietary patterns and weight change: 15-year longitudinal study in Australian adults.

PubMed

Arabshahi, Simin; Ibiebele, Torukiri I; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Lahmann, Petra H; Williams, Gail M; van der Pols, Jolieke C

2017-06-01

Dietary intake is one of the most modifiable risk factors associated with obesity. However, data on the relationship between dietary patterns and long-term weight change are limited. We therefore investigated the association between dietary patterns and 15-year weight change in a sample of 1186 Australian adults (1992-2007). We measured body weight and collected data on socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics in 1992 and 2007. Applying principal component analysis to 38 food groups from a food frequency questionnaire collected at baseline, we identified two dietary patterns: 'meat-and-fat' and 'fruit-and-vegetable.' Using generalized estimating equations, multivariable regression models, stratified by sex, were adjusted for concurrent changes in socio-demographic and lifestyle variables. The average increase in body weight of men in the highest tertile of the meat-and-fat pattern was more than twice that of men in the lowest tertile; mean weight change (95 % CI): 4.8 (-0.1, 9.7) kg versus 2.3 (-2.6, 7.1) kg, P-for-trend = 0.02. In contrast, average weight gain of men in the highest tertile of the fruit-and-vegetable pattern was only about half that of men in the lowest tertile; mean weight change (95 % CI): 2.9 (-2.0, 7.8) kg versus 5.4 (-1.5, 10.4) kg, P-for-trend = 0.02. Among women, dietary patterns were not related to weight change. These dietary patterns predict change in body weight in men, but not in women. In this cohort, a dietary pattern high in fruit and vegetables was related to less weight gain in men than a dietary pattern high in meat and fat.

Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Julia L; Schleinitz, Mark D; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T

2008-03-05

Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and > or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (> or =15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

Decision-Model Estimation of the Age-Specific Disability Weight for Schistosomiasis Japonica: A Systematic Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, Julia L.; Schleinitz, Mark D.; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T.

2008-01-01

Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, <15 years (y) and ≥15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 (<15 y) and 0.186 (≥15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control. PMID:18320018

A new weighted mean temperature model in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jinghong; Yao, Yibin; Sang, Jizhang

2018-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has been applied in meteorology to monitor the change of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) in atmosphere, transformed from Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). A key factor in converting the ZWD into the PWV is the weighted mean temperature (Tm), which has a direct impact on the accuracy of the transformation. A number of Bevis-type models, like Tm -Ts and Tm -Ts,Ps type models, have been developed by statistics approaches, and are not able to clearly depict the relationship between Tm and the surface temperature, Ts . A new model for Tm , called weighted mean temperature norm model (abbreviated as norm model), is derived as a function of Ts , the lapse rate of temperature, δ, the tropopause height, htrop , and the radiosonde station height, hs . It is found that Tm is better related to Ts through an intermediate temperature. The small effects of lapse rate can be ignored and the tropopause height be obtained from an empirical model. Then the norm model is reduced to a simplified form, which causes fewer loss of accuracy and needs two inputs, Ts and hs . In site-specific fittings, the norm model performs much better, with RMS values reduced averagely by 0.45 K and the Mean of Absolute Differences (MAD) values by 0.2 K. The norm model is also found more appropriate than the linear models to fit Tm in a large area, not only with the RMS value reduced from 4.3 K to 3.80 K, correlation coefficient R2 increased from 0.84 to 0.88, and MAD decreased from 3.24 K to 2.90 K, but also with the distribution of simplified model values to be more reasonable. The RMS and MAD values of the differences between reference and computed PWVs are reduced by on average 16.3% and 14.27%, respectively, when using the new norm models instead of the linear model.

Haptic biofeedback for improving compliance with lower-extremity partial weight bearing.

PubMed

Fu, Michael C; DeLuke, Levi; Buerba, Rafael A; Fan, Richard E; Zheng, Ying Jean; Leslie, Michael P; Baumgaertner, Michael R; Grauer, Jonathan N

2014-11-01

After lower-extremity orthopedic trauma and surgery, patients are often advised to restrict weight bearing on the affected limb. Conventional training methods are not effective at enabling patients to comply with recommendations for partial weight bearing. The current study assessed a novel method of using real-time haptic (vibratory/vibrotactile) biofeedback to improve compliance with instructions for partial weight bearing. Thirty healthy, asymptomatic participants were randomized into 1 of 3 groups: verbal instruction, bathroom scale training, and haptic biofeedback. Participants were instructed to restrict lower-extremity weight bearing in a walking boot with crutches to 25 lb, with an acceptable range of 15 to 35 lb. A custom weight bearing sensor and biofeedback system was attached to all participants, but only those in the haptic biofeedback group were given a vibrotactile signal if they exceeded the acceptable range. Weight bearing in all groups was measured with a separate validated commercial system. The verbal instruction group bore an average of 60.3±30.5 lb (mean±standard deviation). The bathroom scale group averaged 43.8±17.2 lb, whereas the haptic biofeedback group averaged 22.4±9.1 lb (P<.05). As a percentage of body weight, the verbal instruction group averaged 40.2±19.3%, the bathroom scale group averaged 32.5±16.9%, and the haptic biofeedback group averaged 14.5±6.3% (P<.05). In this initial evaluation of the use of haptic biofeedback to improve compliance with lower-extremity partial weight bearing, haptic biofeedback was superior to conventional physical therapy methods. Further studies in patients with clinical orthopedic trauma are warranted. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

The impact of supervised weight loss and intentional weight regain on sex hormone binding globulin and testosterone in premenopausal women.

PubMed

Aubuchon, Mira; Liu, Ying; Petroski, Gregory F; Thomas, Tom R; Polotsky, Alex J

2016-08-01

What is the impact of intentional weight loss and regain on serum androgens in women? We conducted an ancillary analysis of prospectively collected samples from a randomized controlled trial. The trial involved supervised 10% weight loss (8.5 kg on average) with diet and exercise over 4-6 months followed by supervised intentional regain of 50% of the lost weight (4.6 kg on average) over 4-6 months. Participants were randomized prior to the partial weight regain component to either continuation or cessation of endurance exercise. Analytic sample included 30 obese premenopausal women (mean age of 40 ± 5.9 years, mean baseline body mass index (BMI) of 32.9 ± 4.2 kg/m(2)) with metabolic syndrome. We evaluated sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), total testosterone (T), free androgen index (FAI), and high molecular weight adiponectin (HMWAdp). Insulin, homeostasis model assessment (HOMA), and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) measured in the original trial were reanalyzed for the current analytic sample. Insulin, HOMA, and QUICKI improved with weight loss and were maintained despite weight regain. Log-transformed SHBG significantly increased from baseline to weight loss, and then significantly decreased with weight regain. LogFAI and logVAT decreased similarly and increased with weight loss followed by weight regain. No changes were found in logT and LogHMWAdp. There was no significant difference in any tested parameters by exercise between the groups. SHBG showed prominent sensitivity to body mass fluctuations, as reduction with controlled intentional weight regain showed an inverse relationship to VAT and occurred despite stable HMWAdp and sustained improvements with insulin resistance. FAI showed opposite changes to SHBG, while T did not change significantly with weight. Continued exercise during weight regain did not appear to impact these findings.

Association between change in body weight after midlife and risk of hip fracture-the Singapore Chinese Health Study.

PubMed

Dai, Z; Ang, L-W; Yuan, J-M; Koh, W-P

2015-07-01

The relationship between change in body weight and risk of fractures is inconsistent in epidemiologic studies. In this cohort of middle-aged to elderly Chinese in Singapore, compared to stable weight, weight loss ≥10 % over an average of 6 years is associated with nearly 40 % increase in risk of hip fracture. Findings on the relationship between change in body weight and risk of hip fracture are inconsistent. In this study, we examined this association among middle-aged and elderly Chinese in Singapore. We used prospective data from the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a population-based cohort of 63,257 Chinese men and women aged 45-74 years at recruitment in 1993-1998. Body weight and height were self-reported at recruitment and reassessed during follow-up interview in 1999-2004. Percent in weight change was computed based on the weight difference over an average of 6 years, and categorized as loss ≥10 %, loss 5 to <10 %, loss or gain <5 % (stable weight), gain 5 to <10 %, and gain ≥10 %. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied with adjustment for risk factors for hip fracture and body mass index (BMI) reported at follow-up interview. About 12 % experienced weight loss ≥10 %, and another 12 % had weight gain ≥10 %. After a mean follow-up of 9.0 years, we identified 775 incident hip fractures among 42,149 eligible participants. Compared to stable weight, weight loss ≥10 % was associated with 39 % increased risk (hazard ratio 1.39; 95 % confidence interval 1.14, 1.69). Such elevated risk with weight loss ≥10 % was observed in both genders and age groups at follow-up (≤65 and >65 years) and in those with baseline BMI ≥20 kg/m(2).There was no significant association with weight gain. Our findings provide evidence that substantial weight loss is an important risk factor for osteoporotic hip fractures among the middle-aged to elderly Chinese.

Combined Effects of Prenatal Exposures to Environmental Chemicals on Birth Weight.

PubMed

Govarts, Eva; Remy, Sylvie; Bruckers, Liesbeth; Den Hond, Elly; Sioen, Isabelle; Nelen, Vera; Baeyens, Willy; Nawrot, Tim S; Loots, Ilse; Van Larebeke, Nick; Schoeters, Greet

2016-05-12

Prenatal chemical exposure has been frequently associated with reduced fetal growth by single pollutant regression models although inconsistent results have been obtained. Our study estimated the effects of exposure to single pollutants and mixtures on birth weight in 248 mother-child pairs. Arsenic, copper, lead, manganese and thallium were measured in cord blood, cadmium in maternal blood, methylmercury in maternal hair, and five organochlorines, two perfluorinated compounds and diethylhexyl phthalate metabolites in cord plasma. Daily exposure to particulate matter was modeled and averaged over the duration of gestation. In single pollutant models, arsenic was significantly associated with reduced birth weight. The effect estimate increased when including cadmium, and mono-(2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl) phthalate (MECPP) co-exposure. Combining exposures by principal component analysis generated an exposure factor loaded by cadmium and arsenic that was associated with reduced birth weight. MECPP induced gender specific effects. In girls, the effect estimate was doubled with co-exposure of thallium, PFOS, lead, cadmium, manganese, and mercury, while in boys, the mixture of MECPP with cadmium showed the strongest association with birth weight. In conclusion, birth weight was consistently inversely associated with exposure to pollutant mixtures. Chemicals not showing significant associations at single pollutant level contributed to stronger effects when analyzed as mixtures.

Permeation Resistance of Personal Protective Equipment Materials to Monomethyhydrazine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waller, J. M.; Williams, J. H.

1997-01-01

Permeation resistance was determined by measuring the breakthrough time and time-averaged vapor transmission rate of monomethylhydrazine (MMH) through two types of personal protective equipment (PPE). The two types of PPE evaluated were the totally encapsulating ILC Dover Chemturion Model 1212 chemical protective suit with accessories, and the FabOhio polyvinyl chloride (PVC) splash garment. Two exposure scenarios were simulated: (1) a saturated vapor exposure for 2 hours (h), and (2) a brief MMH 'splash' followed by a 2-h saturated vapor exposure. Time-averaged MMH concentrations inside the totally-encapsulating suit were calculated by summation of the area-weighted contributions made by each suit component. Results show that the totally encapsulating suit provides adequate protection at the new 10 ppb Threshold Limit Value Time-Weighted Average (TLV-TWA). The permeation resistance of the PVC splash garment to MMH was poorer than any of the totally encapsulating suit materials tested. Breakthrough occurred soon after initial vapor or 'splash' exposure.

Hyperspectral remote sensing of plant biochemistry using Bayesian model averaging with variable and band selection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Kaiguang; Valle, Denis; Popescu, Sorin

2013-05-15

Model specification remains challenging in spectroscopy of plant biochemistry, as exemplified by the availability of various spectral indices or band combinations for estimating the same biochemical. This lack of consensus in model choice across applications argues for a paradigm shift in hyperspectral methods to address model uncertainty and misspecification. We demonstrated one such method using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which performs variable/band selection and quantifies the relative merits of many candidate models to synthesize a weighted average model with improved predictive performances. The utility of BMA was examined using a portfolio of 27 foliage spectral–chemical datasets representing over 80 speciesmore » across the globe to estimate multiple biochemical properties, including nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon, cellulose, lignin, chlorophyll (a or b), carotenoid, polar and nonpolar extractives, leaf mass per area, and equivalent water thickness. We also compared BMA with partial least squares (PLS) and stepwise multiple regression (SMR). Results showed that all the biochemicals except carotenoid were accurately estimated from hyerspectral data with R2 values > 0.80.« less

Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

2015-01-01

For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field. PMID:26110332

Application Study of Comprehensive Forecasting Model Based on Entropy Weighting Method on Trend of PM2.5 Concentration in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Liu, Dong-jun; Li, Li

2015-06-23

For the issue of haze-fog, PM2.5 is the main influence factor of haze-fog pollution in China. The trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed from a qualitative point of view based on mathematical models and simulation in this study. The comprehensive forecasting model (CFM) was developed based on the combination forecasting ideas. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model and Exponential Smoothing Method (ESM) were used to predict the time series data of PM2.5 concentration. The results of the comprehensive forecasting model were obtained by combining the results of three methods based on the weights from the Entropy Weighting Method. The trend of PM2.5 concentration in Guangzhou China was quantitatively forecasted based on the comprehensive forecasting model. The results were compared with those of three single models, and PM2.5 concentration values in the next ten days were predicted. The comprehensive forecasting model balanced the deviation of each single prediction method, and had better applicability. It broadens a new prediction method for the air quality forecasting field.

Research on the effect of noise at different times of day: Models, methods and findings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fields, J. M.

1985-01-01

Social surveys of residents' responses to noise at different times of day are reviewed. Some of the discrepancies in published reports about the importance of noise at different times of day are reduced when the research findings are classified according to the type of time of day reaction model, the type of time of day weight calculated and the method which is used to estimate the weight. When the estimates of nighttime weights from 12 studies are normalized, it is found that they still disagree, but do not support stronger nighttime weights than those used in existing noise indices. Challenges to common assumptions in nighttime response models are evaluated. Two of these challenges receive enough support to warrant further investigation: the impact of changes in numbers of noise events may be less at night than in the day and nighttime annoyance may be affected by noise levels in other periods. All existing social survey results in which averages of nighttime responses were plotted by nighttime noise levels are reproduced.

PHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDEX FOR CHILDREN: A COMPARISON OF LITERATURE VALUES AND EPA'S CHAD

EPA Science Inventory

The physical activity index (PAI) is a measure of an individual's energy expenditure level (and thus oxygen consumption) calculated as a time-weighted average of metabolic equivalents (METS) over the individual's activities. Many exposure models rely upon EPA's CHAD data base to ...

The Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffel, Ethan; Thompson, Terence R.; Horton, Radley M.

2017-01-01

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10 - 30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.; Thompson, T. R.

2017-12-01

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10-30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high tempera- tures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

Fund allocation within Australian dental care: an innovative approach to output based funding.

PubMed

Tennant, M; Carrello, C; Kruger, E

2005-12-01

Over the last 15 years in Australia the process of funding government health care has changed significantly. The development of dental funding models that transparently meet both the service delivery needs for data at the treatment level and policy makers' need for health condition data is critical to the continued integration of dentistry into the wider health system. This paper presents a model of fund allocation that provides a communication construct that addresses the needs of both policy makers and service providers. In this model, dental treatments (dental item numbers) have been grouped into eight broad dental health conditions. Within each dental health condition, a weighted average price is determined using the Department of Veterans Affairs' (DVA) fee schedule as the benchmark, adjusted for the mix of care. The model also adjusts for the efficiency differences between sectors providing government funded dental care. In summary, the price to be applied to a dental health condition category is determined by the weighted average DVA price adjusted by the sector efficiency. This model allows governments and dental service providers to develop funding agreements that both quantify and justify the treatment to be provided. Such a process facilitates the continued integration of dental care into the wider health system.

10 CFR 611.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... both subpart A and subpart B. Adjusted average fuel economy means a harmonic production weighted average of the combined fuel economy of all vehicles in a fleet, which were subject to CAFE. Advanced... (3) At least 125 percent of the harmonic production weighted average combined fuel economy, for...

Estimation of dynamic time activity curves from dynamic cardiac SPECT imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, J.; Du, Y.; Links, J.; Rahmim, A.; Karakatsanis, N.; Akhbardeh, A.; Lyons, J.; Frey, E. C.

2015-04-01

Whole-heart coronary flow reserve (CFR) may be useful as an early predictor of cardiovascular disease or heart failure. Here we propose a simple method to extract the time-activity curve, an essential component needed for estimating the CFR, for a small number of compartments in the body, such as normal myocardium, blood pool, and ischemic myocardial regions, from SPECT data acquired with conventional cameras using slow rotation. We evaluated the method using a realistic simulation of 99mTc-teboroxime imaging. Uptake of 99mTc-teboroxime based on data from the literature were modeled. Data were simulated using the anatomically-realistic 3D NCAT phantom and an analytic projection code that realistically models attenuation, scatter, and the collimator-detector response. The proposed method was then applied to estimate time activity curves (TACs) for a set of 3D volumes of interest (VOIs) directly from the projections. We evaluated the accuracy and precision of estimated TACs and studied the effects of the presence of perfusion defects that were and were not modeled in the estimation procedure. The method produced good estimates of the myocardial and blood-pool TACS organ VOIs, with average weighted absolute biases of less than 5% for the myocardium and 10% for the blood pool when the true organ boundaries were known and the activity distributions in the organs were uniform. In the presence of unknown perfusion defects, the myocardial TAC was still estimated well (average weighted absolute bias <10%) when the total reduction in myocardial uptake (product of defect extent and severity) was ≤5%. This indicates that the method was robust to modest model mismatch such as the presence of moderate perfusion defects and uptake nonuniformities. With larger defects where the defect VOI was included in the estimation procedure, the estimated normal myocardial and defect TACs were accurate (average weighted absolute bias ≈5% for a defect with 25% extent and 100% severity).

Application of a weighted-averaging method for determining paleosalinity: a tool for restoration of south Florida's estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wingard, G.L.; Hudley, J.W.

2012-01-01

A molluscan analogue dataset is presented in conjunction with a weighted-averaging technique as a tool for estimating past salinity patterns in south Florida’s estuaries and developing targets for restoration based on these reconstructions. The method, here referred to as cumulative weighted percent (CWP), was tested using modern surficial samples collected in Florida Bay from sites located near fixed water monitoring stations that record salinity. The results were calibrated using species weighting factors derived from examining species occurrence patterns. A comparison of the resulting calibrated species-weighted CWP (SW-CWP) to the observed salinity at the water monitoring stations averaged over a 3-year time period indicates, on average, the SW-CWP comes within less than two salinity units of estimating the observed salinity. The SW-CWP reconstructions were conducted on a core from near the mouth of Taylor Slough to illustrate the application of the method.

Comparing Satellite Rainfall Estimates with Rain-Gauge Data: Optimal Strategies Suggested by a Spectral Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Kundu, Prasun K.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Validation of satellite remote-sensing methods for estimating rainfall against rain-gauge data is attractive because of the direct nature of the rain-gauge measurements. Comparisons of satellite estimates to rain-gauge data are difficult, however, because of the extreme variability of rain and the fact that satellites view large areas over a short time while rain gauges monitor small areas continuously. In this paper, a statistical model of rainfall variability developed for studies of sampling error in averages of satellite data is used to examine the impact of spatial and temporal averaging of satellite and gauge data on intercomparison results. The model parameters were derived from radar observations of rain, but the model appears to capture many of the characteristics of rain-gauge data as well. The model predicts that many months of data from areas containing a few gauges are required to validate satellite estimates over the areas, and that the areas should be of the order of several hundred km in diameter. Over gauge arrays of sufficiently high density, the optimal areas and averaging times are reduced. The possibility of using time-weighted averages of gauge data is explored.

Interactive vs. Non-Interactive Multi-Model Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, G. S.

2013-12-01

If the members of an ensemble of different models are allowed to interact with one another in run time, predictive skill can be improved as compared to that of any individual model or any average of indvidual model outputs. Inter-model connections in such an interactive ensemble can be trained, using historical data, so that the resulting ``supermodel' synchronizes with reality when used in weather-prediction mode, where the individual models perform data assimilation from each other (with trainable inter-model 'observation error') as well as from real observations. In climate-projection mode, parameters of the individual models are changed, as might occur from an increase in GHG levels, and one obtains relevant statistical properties of the new supermodel attractor. In simple cases, it has been shown that training of the inter-model connections with the old parameter values gives a supermodel that is still predictive when the parameter values are changed. Here we inquire as to the circumstances under which supermodel performance can be expected to exceed that of the customary weighted average of model outputs. We consider a supermodel formed from quasigeostrophic (QG) channel models with different forcing coefficients, and introduce an effective training scheme for the inter-model connections. We show that the blocked-zonal index cycle is reproduced better by the supermodel than by any non-interactive ensemble in the extreme case where the forcing coefficients of the different models are very large or very small. With realistic differences in forcing coefficients, as would be representative of actual differences among IPCC-class models, the usual linearity assumption is justified and a weighted average of model outputs is adequate. It is therefore hypothesized that supermodeling is likely to be useful in situations where there are qualitative model differences, as arising from sub-gridscale parameterizations, that affect overall model behavior. Otherwise the usual ex post facto averaging will probably suffice. The advantage of supermodeling is seen in statistics such as anticorrelation between blocking activity in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, in the case of the QG channel model, rather than in overall blocking frequency. Likewise in climate models, the advantage of supermodeling is typically manifest in higher-order statistics rather than in quantities such as mean temperature.

Predictors of weight loss in early treated Parkinson's disease from the NET-PD LS-1 cohort.

PubMed

Wills, Anne-Marie; Li, Ruosha; Pérez, Adriana; Ren, Xuehan; Boyd, James

2017-08-01

Weight loss is a common symptom of Parkinson's disease and is associated with impaired quality of life. Predictors of weight loss have not been studied in large clinical cohorts. We previously observed an association between change in body mass index and change in Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor and total scores. In this study, we performed a secondary analysis of longitudinal data (1-6 years) from 1619 participants in the NINDS Exploratory Trials in PD Long-term Study-1 (NET-PD LS1) to explore predictors of weight loss in a large prospective clinical trial cohort of early treated Parkinson's disease. The NET-PD LS1 study was a double-blind randomized placebo controlled clinical trial of creatine monohydrate 10 gm/day in early treated PD (within 5 years of diagnosis and within 2 years of starting dopaminergic medications). Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of baseline clinical covariates on weight change over time. On average, participants lost only 0.6 kg per year. Higher age, baseline weight, female gender, higher baseline UPDRS scores, greater postural instability, difficulty eating and drinking, lower cognitive scores and baseline levodopa use (compared to dopamine agonists) were all associated with weight loss. Surprisingly baseline difficulty swallowing, dyskinesia, depression, intestinal hypomotility (constipation) and self-reported nausea/vomiting/anorexia were not significantly associated with weight loss in this cohort of early treated Parkinson's disease patients. On average, participants with Parkinson's disease experience little weight loss during the first 1-6 years after starting dopaminergic replacement therapy, however levodopa use and postural instability were both predictors of early weight loss. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov identifier# NCT00449865.

You are what you eat: diet shapes body composition, personality and behavioural stability.

PubMed

Han, Chang S; Dingemanse, Niels J

2017-01-10

Behavioural phenotypes vary within and among individuals. While early-life experiences have repeatedly been proposed to underpin interactions between these two hierarchical levels, the environmental factors causing such effects remain under-studied. We tested whether an individual's diet affected both its body composition, average behaviour (thereby causing among-individual variation or 'personality') and within-individual variability in behaviour and body weight (thereby causing among-individual differences in residual within-individual variance or 'stability'), using the Southern field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus as a model. We further asked whether effects of diet on the expression of these variance components were sex-specific. Manipulating both juvenile and adult diet in a full factorial design, individuals were put, in each life-stage, on a diet that was either relatively high in carbohydrates or relatively high in protein. We subsequently measured the expression of multiple behavioural (exploration, aggression and mating activity) and morphological traits (body weight and lipid mass) during adulthood. Dietary history affected both average phenotype and level of within-individual variability: males raised as juveniles on high-protein diets were heavier, more aggressive, more active during mating, and behaviourally less stable, than conspecifics raised on high-carbohydrate diets. Females preferred more protein in their diet compared to males, and dietary history affected average phenotype and within-individual variability in a sex-specific manner: individuals raised on high-protein diets were behaviourally less stable in their aggressiveness but this effect was only present in males. Diet also influenced individual differences in male body weight, but within-individual variance in female body weight. This study thereby provides experimental evidence that dietary history explains both heterogeneous residual within-individual variance (i.e., individual variation in 'behavioural stability') and individual differences in average behaviour (i.e., 'personality'), though dietary effects were notably trait-specific. These findings call for future studies integrating proximate and ultimate perspectives on the role of diet in the evolution of repeatedly expressed traits, such as behaviour and body weight.

PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE IN THE CULTURE OF JUVENILE SEA URCHIN Lytechinus variegatus

PubMed Central

Heflin, Laura E.; Makowsky, Robert; Taylor, J. Christopher; Williams, Michael B.; Lawrence, Addison L.; Watts, Stephen A.

2016-01-01

Juvenile Lytechinus variegatus (ca. 3.95± 0.54 g) were fed one of 10 formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 11- 43%) and carbohydrate (12 or 18%; brackets determined from previous studies) levels. Urchins (n= 16 per treatment) were fed a daily sub-satiation ration equivalent to 2.0% of average body weight for 10 weeks. Our objective was (1) to create predictive models of growth, production and efficiency outcomes and (2) to generate economic analysis models in relation to these dietary outcomes for juvenile L. variegatus held in culture. At dietary protein levels below ca. 30%, models for most growth and production outcomes predicted increased rates of growth and production among urchins fed diets containing 18% dietary carbohydrate levels as compared to urchins fed diets containing 12% dietary carbohydrate. For most outcomes, growth and production was predicted to increase with increasing level of dietary protein up to ca. 30%, after which, no further increase in growth and production were predicted. Likewise, dry matter production efficiency was predicted to increase with increasing protein level up to ca. 30%, with urchins fed diets with 18% carbohydrate exhibiting greater efficiency than those fed diets with 12% carbohydrate. The energetic cost of dry matter production was optimal at protein levels less than those required for maximal weight gain and gonad production, suggesting an increased energetic cost (decreased energy efficiency) is required to increase gonad production relative to somatic growth. Economic analysis models predict when cost of feed ingredients are low, the lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 18% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 25- 30% dietary protein. In contrast, lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 12% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 35- 40% dietary protein when feed ingredient costs are high or average. For both 18 and 12% levels of dietary carbohydrate, cost per gram of wet weight gain is predicted to be maximized at low dietary protein levels, regardless of feed ingredient costs. These models will compare dietary requirements and growth outcomes in relation to economic costs and provide insight for future commercialization of sea urchin aquaculture. PMID:28082753

PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE IN THE CULTURE OF JUVENILE SEA URCHIN Lytechinus variegatus.

PubMed

Heflin, Laura E; Makowsky, Robert; Taylor, J Christopher; Williams, Michael B; Lawrence, Addison L; Watts, Stephen A

2016-10-01

Juvenile Lytechinus variegatus (ca. 3.95± 0.54 g) were fed one of 10 formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 11- 43%) and carbohydrate (12 or 18%; brackets determined from previous studies) levels. Urchins (n= 16 per treatment) were fed a daily sub-satiation ration equivalent to 2.0% of average body weight for 10 weeks. Our objective was (1) to create predictive models of growth, production and efficiency outcomes and (2) to generate economic analysis models in relation to these dietary outcomes for juvenile L. variegatus held in culture. At dietary protein levels below ca. 30%, models for most growth and production outcomes predicted increased rates of growth and production among urchins fed diets containing 18% dietary carbohydrate levels as compared to urchins fed diets containing 12% dietary carbohydrate. For most outcomes, growth and production was predicted to increase with increasing level of dietary protein up to ca. 30%, after which, no further increase in growth and production were predicted. Likewise, dry matter production efficiency was predicted to increase with increasing protein level up to ca. 30%, with urchins fed diets with 18% carbohydrate exhibiting greater efficiency than those fed diets with 12% carbohydrate. The energetic cost of dry matter production was optimal at protein levels less than those required for maximal weight gain and gonad production, suggesting an increased energetic cost (decreased energy efficiency) is required to increase gonad production relative to somatic growth. Economic analysis models predict when cost of feed ingredients are low, the lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 18% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 25- 30% dietary protein. In contrast, lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 12% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 35- 40% dietary protein when feed ingredient costs are high or average. For both 18 and 12% levels of dietary carbohydrate, cost per gram of wet weight gain is predicted to be maximized at low dietary protein levels, regardless of feed ingredient costs. These models will compare dietary requirements and growth outcomes in relation to economic costs and provide insight for future commercialization of sea urchin aquaculture.

Effectiveness of a psychosocial weight management program for individuals with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Niv, Noosha; Cohen, Amy N; Hamilton, Alison; Reist, Christopher; Young, Alexander S

2014-07-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a weight loss program for individuals with schizophrenia in usual care. The study included 146 adults with schizophrenia from two mental health clinics of the Department of Veterans Affairs. The 109 individuals who were overweight or obese were offered a 16-week, psychosocial, weight management program. Weight and Body Mass Index (BMI) were assessed at baseline, 1 year later, and at each treatment session. Only 51% of those who were overweight or obese chose to enroll in the weight management program. Participants attended an average of 6.7 treatment sessions, lost an average of 2.4 pounds, and had an average BMI decrease of 0.3. There was no significant change in weight or BMI compared to the control group. Intervention strategies that both improve utilization and yield greater weight loss need to be developed.

Implementation and Effectiveness of a Psychosocial Weight Management Program for Individuals with Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Niv, Noosha; Cohen, Amy N.; Hamilton, Alison; Reist, Christopher; Young, Alexander S.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a weight loss program for individuals with schizophrenia in usual care. The study included 146 adults with schizophrenia from two mental health clinics of the Department of Veterans Affairs. The 109 individuals who were overweight or obese were offered a 16-week, psychosocial, weight management program. Weight and BMI were assessed at baseline, 1 year later and at each treatment session. Only 51% of those who were overweight or obese chose to enroll in the weight management program. Participants attended an average of 6.7 treatment sessions, lost an average of 2.4 pounds and had an average BMI decrease of 0.3. There was no significant change in weight or BMI compared to the control group. Intervention strategies that both improve utilization and yield greater weight loss need to be developed. PMID:22430566

Yogurt consumption, weight change and risk of overweight/obesity: the SUN cohort study.

PubMed

Martinez-Gonzalez, M A; Sayon-Orea, C; Ruiz-Canela, M; de la Fuente, C; Gea, A; Bes-Rastrollo, M

2014-11-01

Epidemiological studies on the association between yogurt consumption and the risk of overweight/obesity are scarce. We prospectively examined the association of yogurt consumption with overweight/obesity and average annual weight gain. Prospective cohort study of 8516 men and women (mean age 37.1, SD: 10.8 y). Participants were followed-up every two years. Participants were classified in 5 categories of yogurt consumption at baseline: 0-2, >2-<5, 5-<7, 7 and ≥ 7 servings/week. Outcomes were: 1) average yearly weight change during follow-up; and 2) incidence of overweight/obesity. Linear regression models and Cox models were used to adjust for potential confounders. After a median follow-up of 6.6 years, 1860 incident cases of overweight/obesity were identified. A high (>7 servings/week) consumption of total and whole-fat yogurt was associated with lower incidence of overweight/obesity [multivariable adjusted hazard ratios = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.68-0.94); and 0.62 (0.47-0.82) respectively] in comparison with low consumption (0-2 servings/week). This inverse association was stronger among participants with higher fruit consumption. In this Mediterranean cohort, yogurt consumption was inversely associated with the incidence of overweight/obesity, especially among participants with higher fruit consumption. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Polyethylene Glycol Solution on the Dissolution Rate of Sustained Release Morphine.

PubMed

Hodgman, Michael; Holland, Michael G; Englich, Ulrich; Wojcik, Susan M; Grant, William D; Leitner, Erich

2016-12-01

Whole bowel irrigation (WBI) is a management option for overdose of medications poorly adsorbed to activated charcoal, with modified release properties, or for body packers. Polyethylene glycol (PEG) is a mixture of ethylene oxide polymers of varying molecular weight. PEG with an average molecular weight of 3350 g/mol is used for WBI. PEG electrolyte lavage solution has been shown in vitro to hasten the dissolution of acetaminophen. The impact of PEG on the pharmacokinetics of extended release pharmaceuticals is unknown. Lower average molecular weight PEG mixtures are used as solvents and excipients. We sought to investigate the impact of PEG on the release of morphine from several extended release morphine formulations. An in vitro gastric model was developed. To test the validity of our model, we first investigated the previously described interaction of ethanol and Avinza®. Once demonstrated, we then investigated the effect of PEG with several extended release morphine formulations. In the validation portion of our study, we confirmed an ethanol Avinza® interaction. Subsequently, we did not observe accelerated release of morphine from Avinza® or generic extended release morphine in the presence of PEG. The use of PEG for gastric decontamination following ingestion of these extended release morphine formulations is unlikely to accelerate morphine release and aggravate intoxication.

Retrospective analysis of antibiotic treatments against piscirickettsiosis in farmed Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in Chile.

PubMed

Price, Derek; Stryhn, Henrik; Sánchez, Javier; Ibarra, Rolando; Tello, Alfredo; St-Hilaire, Sophie

2016-03-30

Piscirickettsiosis is the most prevalent salt-water infectious disease in farmed salmonids in Chile. Antimicrobials are used to treat this disease; however, there is growing concern about the poor response to therapeutants on some fish farms. The objective of this study was to assess whether factors such as type of antibiotic used, average fish weight, temperature at the beginning of the treatment, and mortality at the time of treatment administration affect the probability of treatment failure against piscirickettsiosis. Pen-level treatment and production information for the first treatment event from 2014 pens on 118 farms was used in a logistic mixed model to assess treatment failure. We defined a failed treatment as when the average mortality 3 wk after the treatment was above 0.1%. Farm and company were included in the model as random effects. We found that the antibiotic product, mortality level before the treatment, and fish weight at the start of the treatment all had a significant effect on treatment outcome. Our results suggest that antibiotic treatment success is higher if the treatment is administered when mortality associated with piscirickettsiosis is relatively low. We discuss the effect of weight on treatment success and its potential relationships with husbandry practices and drug pharmacokinetics.

9 CFR 54.6 - Amount of indemnity payments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... weighted average Choice/Prime slaughter lamb price per pound at Greeley, CO; (2) The weekly weighted... commercial western ewe lamb replacement price per head; (4) The monthly weighted average commercial western... ewe lambs under 1 year of age, the indemnity shall equal the per-head price from paragraph (a)(3) of...

Comparison of ArcGIS and SAS Geostatistical Analyst to Estimate Population-Weighted Monthly Temperature for US Counties.

PubMed

Xiaopeng, Q I; Liang, Wei; Barker, Laurie; Lekiachvili, Akaki; Xingyou, Zhang

Temperature changes are known to have significant impacts on human health. Accurate estimates of population-weighted average monthly air temperature for US counties are needed to evaluate temperature's association with health behaviours and disease, which are sampled or reported at the county level and measured on a monthly-or 30-day-basis. Most reported temperature estimates were calculated using ArcGIS, relatively few used SAS. We compared the performance of geostatistical models to estimate population-weighted average temperature in each month for counties in 48 states using ArcGIS v9.3 and SAS v 9.2 on a CITGO platform. Monthly average temperature for Jan-Dec 2007 and elevation from 5435 weather stations were used to estimate the temperature at county population centroids. County estimates were produced with elevation as a covariate. Performance of models was assessed by comparing adjusted R 2 , mean squared error, root mean squared error, and processing time. Prediction accuracy for split validation was above 90% for 11 months in ArcGIS and all 12 months in SAS. Cokriging in SAS achieved higher prediction accuracy and lower estimation bias as compared to cokriging in ArcGIS. County-level estimates produced by both packages were positively correlated (adjusted R 2 range=0.95 to 0.99); accuracy and precision improved with elevation as a covariate. Both methods from ArcGIS and SAS are reliable for U.S. county-level temperature estimates; However, ArcGIS's merits in spatial data pre-processing and processing time may be important considerations for software selection, especially for multi-year or multi-state projects.

Some series of intuitionistic fuzzy interactive averaging aggregation operators.

PubMed

Garg, Harish

2016-01-01

In this paper, some series of new intuitionistic fuzzy averaging aggregation operators has been presented under the intuitionistic fuzzy sets environment. For this, some shortcoming of the existing operators are firstly highlighted and then new operational law, by considering the hesitation degree between the membership functions, has been proposed to overcome these. Based on these new operation laws, some new averaging aggregation operators namely, intuitionistic fuzzy Hamacher interactive weighted averaging, ordered weighted averaging and hybrid weighted averaging operators, labeled as IFHIWA, IFHIOWA and IFHIHWA respectively has been proposed. Furthermore, some desirable properties such as idempotency, boundedness, homogeneity etc. are studied. Finally, a multi-criteria decision making method has been presented based on proposed operators for selecting the best alternative. A comparative concelebration between the proposed operators and the existing operators are investigated in detail.

Efficacy of a laparoscopic gastric restrictive device in an obese canine model.

PubMed

Guo, Xiaomei; Mattar, Samer G; Mimms, Scott E; Navia, Jose A; Kassab, Ghassan S

2014-01-01

Bariatric surgery using laparoscopic techniques is the most effective treatment for morbid obesity. The objective of the study is to assess the safety and efficacy of a novel laparoscopic reversible gastric restrictive (RGR) device in a group of obese dogs. An implant was also performed in a cadaver to assess implant feasibility in a human. Four obese mongrel dogs were subjected to RGR implantation for 3 months followed by recovery for an additional 6 weeks after device removal. Food intake, body weight, radiographic barium imaging, and gastric endoscopy were used to monitor RGR performance before implant, after implant, and implant removal. An additional RGR laparoscopic implantation procedure was performed in a human cadaver. The implanted obese dogs exhibited a significant decrease in food intake and body weight over 3 months with the RGR device. The reduction of food intake was sustained at an average of 46 % after implant and the excess weight loss reached an average of 75 % at the end of 12 weeks with recovery to approximately 78 % of baseline after 6 weeks of implant removal. Barium imaging and gastric endoscopy both confirmed passage for food through the restrictive device channel in the stomach. The RGR device was successfully implanted laparoscopically on the cadaver stomach in less than an hour. The RGR device is laparoscopically deliverable and removable with effective and sustainable weight loss over a 12-week period in an obese dog model. The implant is also technically feasible in man.

Healthy habits: efficacy of simple advice on weight control based on a habit-formation model.

PubMed

Lally, P; Chipperfield, A; Wardle, J

2008-04-01

To evaluate the efficacy of a simple weight loss intervention, based on principles of habit formation. An exploratory trial in which overweight and obese adults were randomized either to a habit-based intervention condition (with two subgroups given weekly vs monthly weighing; n=33, n=36) or to a waiting-list control condition (n=35) over 8 weeks. Intervention participants were followed up for 8 months. A total of 104 adults (35 men, 69 women) with an average BMI of 30.9 kg m(-2). Intervention participants were given a leaflet containing advice on habit formation and simple recommendations for eating and activity behaviours promoting negative energy balance, together with a self-monitoring checklist. Weight change over 8 weeks in the intervention condition compared with the control condition and weight loss maintenance over 32 weeks in the intervention condition. At 8 weeks, people in the intervention condition had lost significantly more weight (mean=2.0 kg) than those in the control condition (0.4 kg), with no difference between weekly and monthly weighing subgroups. At 32 weeks, those who remained in the study had lost an average of 3.8 kg, with 54% losing 5% or more of their body weight. An intention-to-treat analysis (based on last-observation-carried-forward) reduced this to 2.6 kg, with 26% achieving a 5% weight loss. This easily disseminable, low-cost, simple intervention produced clinically significant weight loss. In limited resource settings it has potential as a tool for obesity management.

Modeling storms improves estimates of long-term shoreline change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazer, L. Neil; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Fletcher, Charles H.

2009-10-01

Large storms make it difficult to extract the long-term trend of erosion or accretion from shoreline position data. Here we make storms part of the shoreline change model by means of a storm function. The data determine storm amplitudes and the rate at which the shoreline recovers from storms. Historical shoreline data are temporally sparse, and inclusion of all storms in one model over-fits the data, but a probability-weighted average model shows effects from all storms, illustrating how model averaging incorporates information from good models that might otherwise have been discarded as un-parsimonious. Data from Cotton Patch Hill, DE, yield a long-term shoreline loss rate of 0.49 ± 0.01 m/yr, about 16% less than published estimates. A minimum loss rate of 0.34 ± 0.01 m/yr is given by a model containing the 1929, 1962 and 1992 storms.

New models of Saturn's magnetic field using Pioneer 11 Vector Helium Magnetometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, L., Jr.; Smith, E. J.

1986-01-01

In a reanalysis of the Vector Helium Magnetometer data taken by Pioneer 11 during its Saturn encounter in 1979, using improvements in the data set and in the procedures, studies are made of a variety of models. The best is the P(11)84 model, an axisymmetric spherical harmonic model of Saturn's magnetic field within 8 Saturn radii of the planet. The appropriately weighted root mean square average of the difference between the observed and the modeled field is 1.13 percent. For the Voyager-based Z3 model of Connerney, Acuna, and Ness, this average difference from the Pioneer 11 data is 1.81 percent. The external source currents in the magnetopause, tail, bow shock, and perhaps ring currents vary with time and can only be crudely modeled. An algebraic formula is derived for calculating the L shells on which energetic charged particles drift in axisymmetric fields.

ELECTRICAL AEROSOL DETECTOR (EAD) MEASUREMENTS AT THE ST. LOUIS SUPERSITE

EPA Science Inventory

The Model 3070A Electrical Aerosol Detector (EAD) measures a unique aerosol parameter called total aerosol length. Reported as mm/cm3, aerosol length can be thought of as a number concentration times average diameter, or simply as d1 weighting. This measurement falls between nu...

Study of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicle as a Model for Rapid Defense Acquisitions

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources , gathering and maintaining the...31 3. Source Selection...Government Accountability Office GFE Government Furnished Equipment pg GVWR Gross Vehicle Weight Rating H HEMTT Heavy Expanded Mobility

Independent review : statistical analyses of relationship between vehicle curb weight, track width, wheelbase and fatality rates.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

"NHTSA selected the vehicle footprint (the measure of a vehicles wheelbase multiplied by its average track width) as the attribute upon which to base the CAFE standards for model year 2012-2016 passenger cars and light trucks. These standards are ...

Use of the temporal median and trimmed mean mitigates effects of respiratory motion in multiple-acquisition abdominal diffusion imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerome, N. P.; Orton, M. R.; d'Arcy, J. A.; Feiweier, T.; Tunariu, N.; Koh, D.-M.; Leach, M. O.; Collins, D. J.

2015-01-01

Respiratory motion commonly confounds abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, where averaging of successive samples at different parts of the respiratory cycle, performed in the scanner, manifests the motion as blurring of tissue boundaries and structural features and can introduce bias into calculated diffusion metrics. Storing multiple averages separately allows processing using metrics other than the mean; in this prospective volunteer study, median and trimmed mean values of signal intensity for each voxel over repeated averages and diffusion-weighting directions are shown to give images with sharper tissue boundaries and structural features for moving tissues, while not compromising non-moving structures. Expert visual scoring of derived diffusion maps is significantly higher for the median than for the mean, with modest improvement from the trimmed mean. Diffusion metrics derived from mono- and bi-exponential diffusion models are comparable for non-moving structures, demonstrating a lack of introduced bias from using the median. The use of the median is a simple and computationally inexpensive alternative to complex and expensive registration algorithms, requiring only additional data storage (and no additional scanning time) while returning visually superior images that will facilitate the appropriate placement of regions-of-interest when analysing abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images, for assessment of disease characteristics and treatment response.

Use of the temporal median and trimmed mean mitigates effects of respiratory motion in multiple-acquisition abdominal diffusion imaging.

PubMed

Jerome, N P; Orton, M R; d'Arcy, J A; Feiweier, T; Tunariu, N; Koh, D-M; Leach, M O; Collins, D J

2015-01-21

Respiratory motion commonly confounds abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, where averaging of successive samples at different parts of the respiratory cycle, performed in the scanner, manifests the motion as blurring of tissue boundaries and structural features and can introduce bias into calculated diffusion metrics. Storing multiple averages separately allows processing using metrics other than the mean; in this prospective volunteer study, median and trimmed mean values of signal intensity for each voxel over repeated averages and diffusion-weighting directions are shown to give images with sharper tissue boundaries and structural features for moving tissues, while not compromising non-moving structures. Expert visual scoring of derived diffusion maps is significantly higher for the median than for the mean, with modest improvement from the trimmed mean. Diffusion metrics derived from mono- and bi-exponential diffusion models are comparable for non-moving structures, demonstrating a lack of introduced bias from using the median. The use of the median is a simple and computationally inexpensive alternative to complex and expensive registration algorithms, requiring only additional data storage (and no additional scanning time) while returning visually superior images that will facilitate the appropriate placement of regions-of-interest when analysing abdominal diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images, for assessment of disease characteristics and treatment response.

Endocrine Gland and Brain Weights of Market Weight Bulls and Steers Representing the Shorthorn Breed and Several Breed Crosses

PubMed Central

Doornenbal, H.

1974-01-01

Thyroid, adrenal, pituitary and brain weights were first determined in 1971 in 492 market weight cattle representing purebred Shorthorns and crosses of “foreign” breeds, Charolais, Simmental and Limousin with Hereford, Angus and Shorthorn. Thyroid weights were also determined in a similar group of 433 cattle the following year. The data were reported on a per 100 kg body weight basis and analyzed within the subgroups of breed of sire, breed of dam and location. The average thyroid weight per 100 kg of body weight for males within subgroups over the two years ranged from 3.99 to 8.71 g, while that for steers ranged from 3.81 to 4.41 g. The average thyroid weight for a group of 18 Limousin sired heifers was 3.71 g. The average adrenal weight per 100 kg of slaughter weight ranged from 3.66 to 4.20 g in the males and from 3.66 to 3.86 g in the steers. Pituitary weight per 100 kg body weight at slaughter ranged from 486-511 mg in bulls and from 469-510 mg in steers. Average brain weight ranged from 85.5 to 97.3 g in males and from 92.2 to 94.1 g in steers. Breed differences existed only for the pituitary gland, with Simmental sired males and steers having heavier glands than Charolais sired males and steers. Sex differences were significant for the thyroid and the brain. Thyroids of males were generally heavier than those of steers, while brains of steers were heavier than those from males. Thyroid, adrenal and brain weights were significantly different between two genetically similar purebred herds of Shorthorns. PMID:4279761

Health investment decisions in response to diabetes information in older Americans.

PubMed

Slade, Alexander N

2012-05-01

Diabetes is a very common and serious chronic disease, and one of the fastest growing disease burdens in the United States. Further, health behaviors, such as exercise, smoking, drinking, as well as weight status, are instrumental to diabetes management and the reduction of its medical consequences. Nine waves of the Health and Retirement Study are used to model the role of a recent diabetes diagnosis and medication on present and subsequent weight status, exercise, drinking and smoking activity. Several non-linear dynamic population average probit models are estimated. Results suggest that compared to non-diagnosed individuals at risk for high blood sugar, diagnosed diabetics respond initially in terms of increasing exercise, losing weight, and curbing smoking and drinking behavior, but the effect diminishes after diagnosis. Evidence of recidivism is also found in these outcomes, especially weight status and physical activity, suggesting that some behavioral responses to diabetes may be short-lived. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

InMAP: a new model for air pollution interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessum, C. W.; Hill, J. D.; Marshall, J. D.

2015-10-01

Mechanistic air pollution models are essential tools in air quality management. Widespread use of such models is hindered, however, by the extensive expertise or computational resources needed to run most models. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations - the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages - attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model (WRF-Chem) within an Eulerian modeling framework, to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. InMAP uses a variable resolution grid that focuses on human exposures by employing higher spatial resolution in urban areas and lower spatial resolution in rural and remote locations and in the upper atmosphere; and by directly calculating steady-state, annual average concentrations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates WRF-Chem predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional error (MFE) and bias (MFB) < 10 % and population-weighted R2 ~ 0.99. Among individual PM2.5 species, the best predictive performance is for primary PM2.5 (MFE: 16 %; MFB: 13 %) and the worst predictive performance is for particulate nitrate (MFE: 119 %; MFB: 106 %). Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. Features planned for future model releases include a larger spatial domain, more temporal information, and the ability to predict ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online.

Do increases in cigarette prices lead to increases in sales of cigarettes with high tar and nicotine yields?

PubMed

Farrelly, Matthew C; Loomis, Brett R; Mann, Nathan H

2007-10-01

We used scanner data on cigarette prices and sales collected from supermarkets across the United States from 1994 to 2004 to test the hypothesis that cigarette prices are positively correlated with sales of cigarettes with higher tar and nicotine content. During this period the average inflation-adjusted price for menthol cigarettes increased 55.8%. Price elasticities from multivariate regression models suggest that this price increase led to an increase of 1.73% in sales-weighted average tar yields and a 1.28% increase in sales-weighted average nicotine yields for menthol cigarettes. The 50.5% price increase of nonmenthol varieties over the same period yielded an estimated increase of 1% in tar per cigarette but no statistically significant increase in nicotine yields. An ordered probit model of the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette strength (ultra-light, light, full flavor, unfiltered) offers an explanation: As cigarette prices increase, the probability that stronger cigarette types will be sold increases. This effect is larger for menthol than for nonmenthol cigarettes. Our results are consistent with earlier population-based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies showing that higher cigarette prices and taxes are associated with increasing consumption of higher-yield cigarettes by smokers.

Discrimination against Obese Exercise Clients: An Experimental Study of Personal Trainers.

PubMed

Fontana, Fabio; Bopes, Jonathan; Bendixen, Seth; Speed, Tyler; George, Megan; Mack, Mick

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to compare exercise recommendations, attitudes, and behaviors of personal trainers toward clients of different weight statuses. Fifty-two personal trainers participated in the study. The data collection was organized into two phases. In phase one, trainers read a profile and watched the video displaying an interview of either an obese or an average-weight client. Profiles and video interviews were identical except for weight status. Then, trainers provided exercise recommendations and rated their attitude toward the client. In phase two, trainers personally met an obese or an average-weight mock client. Measures were duration and number of advices provided by the trainer to a question posed by the client and sitting distance between trainer and client. There were no significant differences in exercise intensity ( p = .94), duration of first session ( p = .65), and total exercise duration of first week ( p = .76) prescribed to the obese and average-weight clients. The attitude of the personal trainers toward the obese client were not significantly different from the attitude of personal trainers toward the average-weight client ( p = .58). The number of advices provided ( p = .49), the duration of the answer ( p = .55), and the distance personal trainers sat from the obese client ( p = .68) were not significantly different from the behaviors displayed toward the average-weight client. Personal trainers did not discriminate against obese clients in professional settings.

Testing the norm to fat talk for women of varying size: what's weight got to do with it?

PubMed

Barwick, Amy; Bazzini, Doris; Martz, Denise; Rocheleau, Courtney; Curtin, Lisa

2012-01-01

"Fat talk" is the conversational phenomenon whereby people berate their bodies in social circles. This study assessed whether norms of fat talk differ for overweight versus average-weight women. Sixty-three women read a script depicting a fat talk situation during which an overweight or average-weight target woman engaged in positive or negative body talk. Regardless of the target's weight, participants perceived it to be more typical and less surprising if she engaged in negative body talk (fat talk) rather than positive body talk. Furthermore, fat talk from either weight group did not affect the likeability of the target, but women, overweight or of average weight, who engaged in positive talk were perceived to have more socially desirable personality characteristics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why does walking economy improve after weight loss in obese adolescents?

PubMed

Peyrot, Nicolas; Thivel, David; Isacco, Laurie; Morin, Jean-Benoît; Belli, Alain; Duche, Pascale

2012-04-01

This study tested the hypothesis that the increase in walking economy (i.e., decrease in net metabolic rate per kilogram) after weight loss in obese adolescents is induced by a lower metabolic rate required to support the lower body weight and maintain balance during walking. Sixteen obese adolescent boys and girls were tested before and after a weight reduction program. Body composition and oxygen uptake while standing and walking at four preset speeds (0.75, 1, 1.25, and 1.5 m·s⁻¹) and at the preferred speed were quantified. Net metabolic rate and gross metabolic cost of walking-versus-speed relationships were determined. A three-compartment model was used to distinguish the respective parts of the metabolic rate associated with standing (compartment 1), maintaining balance and supporting body weight during walking (compartment 2), and muscle contractions required to move the center of mass and limbs (compartment 3). Standing metabolic rate per kilogram (compartment 1) significantly increased after weight loss, whereas net metabolic rate per kilogram during walking decreased by 9% on average across speeds. Consequently, the gross metabolic cost of walking per unit of distance-versus-speed relationship and hence preferred walking speeds did not change with weight loss. Compartment 2 of the model was significantly lower after weight loss, whereas compartment 3 did not change. The model showed that the improvement in walking economy after weight loss in obese adolescents was likely related to the lower metabolic rate of the isometric muscular contractions required to support the lower body weight and maintain balance during walking. Contrastingly, the part of the total metabolic rate associated with muscle contractions required to move the center of mass and limbs did not seem to be related to the improvement in walking economy in weight-reduced individuals.

Weighted Vest Use during Dietary Weight Loss on Bone Health in Older Adults with Obesity.

PubMed

Kelleher, Jessica L; Beavers, Daniel P; Henderson, Rebecca M; Yow, Dixie; Crotts, Charlotte; Kiel, Jessica; Nicklas, Barbara J; Beavers, Kristen M

2017-01-01

To examine the effects of daily weighted vest use during a dietary weight loss intervention, on (a) hip and spine bone mineral density (aBMD), and (b) biomarkers of bone turnover, in older adults with obesity. 37 older (70.1 ± 3.0 years) adults with obesity (BMI=35.3 ± 2.9) underwent a 22 week dietary weight loss intervention (1100-1300 kcal/day) with (Diet+Vest; n=20) or without (Diet; n=17) weighted vest use (goal: 10+ h/day; weight added incrementally based on amount of weight lost). Total body weight; DXA-acquired aBMD of the total hip, femoral neck and lumbar spine; and biomarkers of bone turnover (OC, BALP, P1NP, CTX) were measured at baseline and follow up. General linear models, adjusted for baseline values of the outcome and gender, were used to examine intervention effects. Average weight loss was significant in both groups (-11.2 ± 4.4 kg and -11.0 ± 6.3 kg, Diet+Vest and Diet groups, respectively), with no difference between groups (p=0.91). Average weighted vest use was 6.7 ± 2.2 h/day. No significant changes in aBMD or biomarkers were observed, although trends were noted for total hip aBMD and BALP. Loss in total hip aBMD was greater in the Diet group compared with Diet+Vest (Δ: -18.7 [29.3, -8.1] mg/cm 2 versus -6.1 [-15.7, 3.5] mg/cm 2 ; p=0.08). BALP increased in the Diet+Vest group by 3.8% (Δ: 0.59 [-0.33, 1.50] μg/L) and decreased by -4.6% in the Diet group (Δ: -0.70 [-1.70, 0.31] μg/L, p=0.07). Weighted vest use during weight loss may attenuate loss of hip aBMD and increase bone formation in older adults with obesity. Further study is warranted.

Carcass Production of Cattle Slaughtered at Salatiga City Slaughter House, Salatiga, Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purbowati, E.; Lestari, C. M. S.; Ma'ruf, M. J.; Sutaryo, S.

2018-02-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the breed, age, sex, slaughter weight, carcass weight, and carcass percentage of cattle which was slaughtered at Slaughter House in Salatiga, Central Java. The materials used in the study were 156 head of catlle. The sampling used was incidental sampling to identify the breed, age, sex, slaughter weight and carcass weight. The data gathered were analyzed descriptively. The result showed that the sex of all the cattle slaughtered were male. The breeds of the cattle were Frisian Holstein Grade (70.51%), Simmental (15.38+3.21), Simmental-Ongole Grade (5.13%), and Limousine-Ongole Grade (5.77%). The average age of the cattle were 2.34 year old, with an average of slaughter weight of 529.34 kg, while the averages of carcass weight were 277.61 kg. The average of carcass percentage was as high as 52.56%. The conclusion of the study was the highest number of breeds of the cattle slaughtered at Slaughter House in Salatiga were young Frisian Holstein, the body weights were included in large frame score, and the carcass percentage were moderate.

Cosmic rays at the ankle: Composition studies using the Pierre Auger Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Younk, Patrick William

The ankle is a flattening of the cosmic ray energy spectrum at approximately 10 18.5 eV. Its origin is unknown. This thesis investigates the nature of cosmic rays with energy near 10 18.5 eV, and it evaluates two phenomenological models for the ankle feature. Data from the Pierre Auger Observatory is used. Two important calibration studies for the Pierre Auger Observatory are presented: (1) A measurement of the time offset between the surface detector and the fluorescence detector, and (2) A measurement of the fluorescence telescope alignment. The uncertainty on the time offset measurement is 20 ns and the uncertainty on the fluorescence telescope alignment is 0.14°; both uncertainties are within the design specifications of the observatory. Studies to determine the cosmic ray composition mixture near the ankle are presented. Measurements of the average depth of shower maximum suggest that the average particle mass is gradually decreasing between 10 17.8 and 10 18.4 eV and that the average particle mass is steady or slightly increasing between 10 18.5 and 10 19.0 eV. Measurements of the average depth of shower maximum also suggest that the fractional abundance of intermediate weight nuclei such as carbon steadily increases from 10 18 to 10 19 eV. Between 10 18.5 and 10 19.0 eV, the correlation between the depth of shower maximum and the ground level muon density is consistent with a significant fractional abundance of both protons and intermediate weight nuclei. Two popular phenomenological models for the ankle are compared with the above composition results. The first model is that the ankle marks the intersection between a soft galactic spectrum and a hard extragalactic spectrum. The second model is that the ankle is part of a dip in the cosmic ray spectrum (the pair production dip) caused by the attenuation of protons as they travel through intergalactic space. It is demonstrated that the experimental results favor the first model.

Menu Labeling as a Potential Strategy for Combating the Obesity Epidemic: A Health Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Jarosz, Christopher J.; Simon, Paul; Fielding, Jonathan E.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We conducted a health impact assessment to quantify the potential impact of a state menu-labeling law on population weight gain in Los Angeles County, California. Methods. We utilized published and unpublished data to model consumer response to point-of-purchase calorie postings at large chain restaurants in Los Angeles County. We conducted sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty in consumer response and in the total annual revenue, market share, and average meal price of large chain restaurants in the county. Results. Assuming that 10% of the restaurant patrons would order reduced-calorie meals in response to calorie postings, resulting in an average reduction of 100 calories per meal, we estimated that menu labeling would avert 40.6% of the 6.75 million pound average annual weight gain in the county population aged 5 years and older. Substantially larger impacts would be realized if higher percentages of patrons ordered reduced-calorie meals or if average per-meal calorie reductions increased. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that mandated menu labeling could have a sizable salutary impact on the obesity epidemic, even with only modest changes in consumer behavior. PMID:19608944

Slender women and overweight men: gender differences in the educational gradient in body weight in South Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Yeonjin

2017-11-21

Little is known about the gender-specific mechanisms through which education is associated with weight status in societies that have experienced a rapid rise in their obesity rates. This study extends previous literature by examining how the link between education and weight status operates within the structure of gender relations in South Korea where huge gender differences have been observed in the educational inequalities in weight status. Using the Korean National Health Survey (N = 17,947) conducted in 2008-2012 conditional quantile regression models were estimated to assess the associations between education and body weight distribution. The mean difference in the predicted probabilities of perceiving body image as average was compared by educational attainment for women and men while setting all other covariates at their means. Highly educated women were more likely to utilize their human capital to obtain slender body shape and the relationship was not mediated by economic resources. In contrast, education was positively associated with being overweight and obesity among men, for whom behaviors promoting healthy weight often conflict with a collective ideology at work that strongly supports long work hours and heavy alcohol consumption. Furthermore, Korean men were more likely to under-perceive their body size than Korean women, that is, overweight men tend to consider themselves to be of 'average' weight, regardless of their educational attainment. Current study found that gender inequalities in social status in South Korea operate to affect the relationship between education and weight status among men and women in unique ways. Weight status can be socially patterned by the interplay between education, economic, and behavioral resources within the structure of gender relations.

A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Limber, Patrick; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li

2018-01-01

Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings

Dissonance-Based Eating Disorder Prevention Program Reduces Reward Region Response to Thin Models; How Actions Shape Valuation

PubMed Central

Stice, Eric; Yokum, Sonja; Waters, Allison

2015-01-01

Research supports the effectiveness of a dissonance-based eating disorder prevention program wherein high-risk young women with body dissatisfaction critique the thin ideal, which reduces pursuit of this ideal, and the theory that dissonance induction contributes to these effects. Based on evidence that dissonance produces attitudinal change by altering neural representation of valuation, we tested whether completing the Body Project would reduce response of brain regions implicated in reward valuation to thin models. Young women with body dissatisfaction were randomized to this intervention or an educational control condition, completing assessments and fMRI scans while viewing images of thin versus average-weight female models at pre and post. Whole brain analyses indicated that, compared to controls, Body Project participants showed greater reductions in caudate response to images of thin versus average-weight models, though participants in the two conditions showed pretest differences in responsivity of other brain regions that might have contributed to this effect. Greater pre-post reductions in caudate and putamen response to thin models correlated with greater reductions in body dissatisfaction. The finding that the Body Project reduces caudate response to thin models provides novel preliminary evidence that this intervention reduces valuation of media images thought to contribute to body dissatisfaction and eating disorders, providing support for the intervention theory by documenting that this intervention alters an objective biological outcome. PMID:26641854

Dissonance-Based Eating Disorder Prevention Program Reduces Reward Region Response to Thin Models; How Actions Shape Valuation.

PubMed

Stice, Eric; Yokum, Sonja; Waters, Allison

2015-01-01

Research supports the effectiveness of a dissonance-based eating disorder prevention program wherein high-risk young women with body dissatisfaction critique the thin ideal, which reduces pursuit of this ideal, and the theory that dissonance induction contributes to these effects. Based on evidence that dissonance produces attitudinal change by altering neural representation of valuation, we tested whether completing the Body Project would reduce response of brain regions implicated in reward valuation to thin models. Young women with body dissatisfaction were randomized to this intervention or an educational control condition, completing assessments and fMRI scans while viewing images of thin versus average-weight female models at pre and post. Whole brain analyses indicated that, compared to controls, Body Project participants showed greater reductions in caudate response to images of thin versus average-weight models, though participants in the two conditions showed pretest differences in responsivity of other brain regions that might have contributed to this effect. Greater pre-post reductions in caudate and putamen response to thin models correlated with greater reductions in body dissatisfaction. The finding that the Body Project reduces caudate response to thin models provides novel preliminary evidence that this intervention reduces valuation of media images thought to contribute to body dissatisfaction and eating disorders, providing support for the intervention theory by documenting that this intervention alters an objective biological outcome.

29 CFR 1910.1047 - Ethylene oxide.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... (8)-hour time-weighted average. Assistant Secretary means the Assistant Secretary of Labor for... organic compound with chemical formula C2 H4 O. (c) Permissible exposure limits—(1) 8-hour time weighted... in excess of one (1) part EtO per million parts of air (1 ppm) as an 8-hour time-weighted average (8...

29 CFR 1910.1047 - Ethylene oxide.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... (8)-hour time-weighted average. Assistant Secretary means the Assistant Secretary of Labor for... organic compound with chemical formula C2 H4 O. (c) Permissible exposure limits—(1) 8-hour time weighted... in excess of one (1) part EtO per million parts of air (1 ppm) as an 8-hour time-weighted average (8...

29 CFR 1910.1047 - Ethylene oxide.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... (8)-hour time-weighted average. Assistant Secretary means the Assistant Secretary of Labor for... organic compound with chemical formula C2 H4 O. (c) Permissible exposure limits—(1) 8-hour time weighted... in excess of one (1) part EtO per million parts of air (1 ppm) as an 8-hour time-weighted average (8...

Combination of Alternative Models by Mutual Data Assimilation: Supermodeling With A Suite of Primitive Equation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, G. S.; Selten, F.

2016-12-01

Different models of climate and weather commonly give projections/predictions that differ widely in their details. While averaging of model outputs almost always improves results, nonlinearity implies that further improvement can be obtained from model interaction in run time, as has already been demonstrated with toy systems of ODEs and idealized quasigeostrophic models. In the supermodeling scheme, models effectively assimilate data from one another and partially synchronize with one another. Spread among models is manifest as a spread in possible inter-model connection coefficients, so that the models effectively "agree to disagree". Here, we construct a supermodel formed from variants of the SPEEDO model, a primitive-equation atmospheric model (SPEEDY) coupled to ocean and land. A suite of atmospheric models, coupled to the same ocean and land, is chosen to represent typical differences among climate models by varying model parameters. Connections are introduced between all pairs of corresponding independent variables at synoptic-scale intervals. Strengths of the inter-atmospheric connections can be considered to represent inverse inter-model observation error. Connection strengths are adapted based on an established procedure that extends the dynamical equations of a pair of synchronizing systems to synchronize parameters as well. The procedure is applied to synchronize the suite of SPEEDO models with another SPEEDO model regarded as "truth", adapting the inter-model connections along the way. The supermodel with trained connections gives marginally lower error in all fields than any weighted combination of the separate model outputs when used in "weather-prediction mode", i.e. with constant nudging to truth. Stronger results are obtained if a supermodel is used to predict the formation of coherent structures or the frequency of such. Partially synchronized SPEEDO models give a better representation of the blocked-zonal index cycle than does a weighted average of the constituent model outputs. We have thus shown that supermodeling and the synchronization-based procedure to adapt inter-model connections give results superior to output averaging not only with highly nonlinear toy systems, but with smaller nonlinearities as occur in climate models.

Dose reduction for abdominal and pelvic MDCT after change to graduated weight-based protocol for selecting quality reference tube current, peak kilovoltage, and slice collimation.

PubMed

Herts, Brian R; Baker, Mark E; Obuchowski, Nancy; Primak, Andrew; Schneider, Erika; Rhana, Harpreet; Dong, Frank

2013-06-01

The purpose of this article is to determine the decrease in volume CT dose index (CTDI(vol)) and dose-length product (DLP) achieved by switching from fixed quality reference tube current protocols with automatic tube current modulation to protocols adjusting the quality reference tube current, slice collimation, and peak kilovoltage according to patient weight. All adult patients who underwent CT examinations of the abdomen or abdomen and pelvis during 2010 using weight-based protocols who also underwent a CT examination in 2008 or 2009 using fixed quality reference tube current protocols were identified from the radiology information system. Protocol pages were electronically retrieved, and the CT model, examination date, scan protocol, CTDI(vol), and DLP were extracted from the DICOM header or by optical character recognition. There were 15,779 scans with dose records for 2700 patients. Changes in CTDI(vol) and DLP were compared only between examinations of the same patient and same CT system model for examinations performed in 2008 or 2009 and those performed in 2010. The final analysis consisted of 1117 comparisons in 1057 patients, and 1209 comparisons in 988 patients for CTDI(vol) and DLP, respectively. The change to a weight-based protocol resulted in a statistically significant reduction in CTDI(vol) and DLP on three MDCT system models (p < 0.001). The largest average CTDI(vol) decrease was 13.9%, and the largest average DLP decrease was 16.1% on a 64-MDCT system. Both the CTDI(vol) and DLP decreased the most for patients who weighed less than 250 lb (112.5 kg). Adjusting the CT protocol by selecting parameters according to patient weight is a viable method for reducing CT radiation dose. The largest reductions occurred in the patients weighing less than 250 lb.

The role of sex and body weight on the metabolic effects of high-fat diet in C57BL/6N mice.

PubMed

Ingvorsen, C; Karp, N A; Lelliott, C J

2017-04-10

Metabolic disorders are commonly investigated using knockout and transgenic mouse models on the C57BL/6N genetic background due to its genetic susceptibility to the deleterious metabolic effects of high-fat diet (HFD). There is growing awareness of the need to consider sex in disease progression, but limited attention has been paid to sexual dimorphism in mouse models and its impact in metabolic phenotypes. We assessed the effect of HFD and the impact of sex on metabolic variables in this strain. We generated a reference data set encompassing glucose tolerance, body composition and plasma chemistry data from 586 C57BL/6N mice fed a standard chow and 733 fed a HFD collected as part of a high-throughput phenotyping pipeline. Linear mixed model regression analysis was used in a dual analysis to assess the effect of HFD as an absolute change in phenotype, but also as a relative change accounting for the potential confounding effect of body weight. HFD had a significant impact on all variables tested with an average absolute effect size of 29%. For the majority of variables (78%), the treatment effect was modified by sex and this was dominated by male-specific or a male stronger effect. On average, there was a 13.2% difference in the effect size between the male and female mice for sexually dimorphic variables. HFD led to a significant body weight phenotype (24% increase), which acts as a confounding effect on the other analysed variables. For 79% of the variables, body weight was found to be a significant source of variation, but even after accounting for this confounding effect, similar HFD-induced phenotypic changes were found to when not accounting for weight. HFD and sex are powerful modifiers of metabolic parameters in C57BL/6N mice. We also demonstrate the value of considering body size as a covariate to obtain a richer understanding of metabolic phenotypes.

Estimating lift from unsteady wakes by using the Kutta-Joukowski theorem with vorticity-weighted wake width

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shizhao; He, Guowei; Liu, Tianshu

2017-11-01

The Kutta-Joukowski (KJ) theorem usually leads to puzzling results when it is applied to estimating the lift from the unsteady wakes generated by flapping wings. We investigate this problem by using a prevalent flapping rectangular wing model, where the unsteady wakes are obtained by numerically solving the Navier-Stokes equations at a low Reynolds number. It is found that neither the unsteady nor the time-averaged lift coefficient is correctly predicted when the parameters for the KJ theorem are selected according to the widely accepted ways in the literature. We propose a vorticity-weighted wake width model based on the vortex impulse theory to improve the prediction of the time-averaged lift. Furthermore, we investigate the phase difference of unsteady lift caused by the quasi-steady assumption of the application of the KJ theorem to the flapping flight and quantitatively link the phase difference to the local fluid acceleration. We show the phase difference can be corrected by using an added mass lift model. This work is helpful to clarify the error in estimating the lift of animal flight. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11672305).

Leptin levels in patients with anorexia nervosa following day/inpatient treatment do not predict weight 1 year post-referral.

PubMed

Seitz, Jochen; Bühren, Katharina; Biemann, Ronald; Timmesfeld, Nina; Dempfle, Astrid; Winter, Sibylle Maria; Egberts, Karin; Fleischhaker, Christian; Wewetzer, Christoph; Herpertz-Dahlmann, Beate; Hebebrand, Johannes; Föcker, Manuel

2016-09-01

Elevated serum leptin levels following rapid therapeutically induced weight gain in anorexia nervosa (AN) patients are discussed as a potential biomarker for renewed weight loss as a result of leptin-related suppression of appetite and increased energy expenditure. This study aims to analyze the predictive value of leptin levels at discharge as well as the average rate of weight gain during inpatient or day patient treatment for body weight at 1-year follow-up. 121 patients were recruited from the longitudinal Anorexia Nervosa Day patient versus Inpatient (ANDI) trial. Serum leptin levels were analyzed at referral and discharge. A multiple linear regression analysis to predict age-adjusted body mass index (BMI-SDS) at 1-year follow-up was performed. Leptin levels, the average rate of weight gain, premorbid BMI-SDS, BMI-SDS at referral, age and illness duration were included as independent variables. Neither leptin levels at discharge nor rate of weight gain significantly predicted BMI-SDS at 1-year follow-up explaining only 1.8 and 0.4 % of the variance, respectively. According to our results, leptin levels at discharge and average rate of weight gain did not exhibit any value in predicting weight at 1-year follow-up in our longitudinal observation study of adolescent patients with AN. Thus, research should focus on other potential factors to predict weight at follow-up. As elevated leptin levels and average rate of weight gain did not pose a risk for reduced weight, we found no evidence for the beneficial effect of slow refeeding in patients with acute AN.

Effects of social contact and zygosity on 21-y weight change in male twins.

PubMed

McCaffery, Jeanne M; Franz, Carol E; Jacobson, Kristen; Leahey, Tricia M; Xian, Hong; Wing, Rena R; Lyons, Michael J; Kremen, William S

2011-08-01

Recent evidence indicates that social contact is related to similarities in weight gain over time. However, no studies have examined this effect in a twin design, in which genetic and other environmental effects can also be estimated. We determined whether the frequency of social contact is associated with similarity in weight change from young adulthood (mean age: 20 y) to middle age (mean age: 41 y) in twins and quantified the percentage of variance in weight change attributable to social contact, genetic factors, and other environmental influences. Participants were 1966 monozygotic and 1529 dizygotic male twin pairs from the Vietnam-Era Twin Registry. Regression models tested whether frequency of social contact and zygosity predicted twin pair similarity in body mass index (BMI) change and weight change. Twin modeling was used to partition the percentage variance attributable to social contact, genetic, and other environmental effects. Twins gained an average of 3.99 BMI units, or 13.23 kg (29.11 lb), over 21 y. In regression models, both zygosity (P < 0.001) and degree of social contact (P < 0.02) significantly predicted twin pair similarity in BMI change. In twin modeling, social contact between twins contributed 16% of the variance in BMI change (P < 0.001), whereas genetic factors contributed 42%, with no effect of additional shared environmental factors (1%). Similar results were obtained for weight change. Frequency of social contact significantly predicted twin pair similarity in BMI and weight change over 21 y, independent of zygosity and other shared environmental influences.

Weighted sum of gray gases model optimization for numerical investigations of processes inside pulverized coal-fired furnaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crnomarkovic, Nenad; Belosevic, Srdjan; Tomanovic, Ivan; Milicevic, Aleksandar

2017-12-01

The effects of the number of significant figures (NSF) in the interpolation polynomial coefficients (IPCs) of the weighted sum of gray gases model (WSGM) on results of numerical investigations and WSGM optimization were investigated. The investigation was conducted using numerical simulations of the processes inside a pulverized coal-fired furnace. The radiative properties of the gas phase were determined using the simple gray gas model (SG), two-term WSGM (W2), and three-term WSGM (W3). Ten sets of the IPCs with the same NSF were formed for every weighting coefficient in both W2 and W3. The average and maximal relative difference values of the flame temperatures, wall temperatures, and wall heat fluxes were determined. The investigation showed that the results of numerical investigations were affected by the NSF unless it exceeded certain value. The increase in the NSF did not necessarily lead to WSGM optimization. The combination of the NSF (CNSF) was the necessary requirement for WSGM optimization.

Empirical study on a directed and weighted bus transport network in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Shumin; Hu, Baoyu; Nie, Cen; Shen, Xianghao

2016-01-01

Bus transport networks are directed complex networks that consist of routes, stations, and passenger flow. In this study, the concept of duplication factor is introduced to analyze the differences between uplinks and downlinks for the bus transport network of Harbin (BTN-H). Further, a new representation model for BTNs is proposed, named as directed-space P. Two empirical characteristics of BTN-H are reported in this paper. First, the cumulative distributions of weighted degree, degree, number of routes that connect to each station, and node weight (peak-hour trips at a station) uniformly follow the exponential law. Meanwhile, the node weight shows positive correlations with the corresponding weighted degree, degree, and number of routes that connect to a station. Second, a new richness parameter of a node is explored by its node weight and the connectivity, weighted connectivity, average shortest path length and efficiency between rich nodes can be fitted by composite exponential functions to demonstrate the rich-club phenomenon.

Variance estimation when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with survival analysis.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2016-12-30

Propensity score methods are used to reduce the effects of observed confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments or exposures. A popular method of using the propensity score is inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). When using this method, a weight is calculated for each subject that is equal to the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment that was actually received. These weights are then incorporated into the analyses to minimize the effects of observed confounding. Previous research has found that these methods result in unbiased estimation when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes. However, conventional methods of variance estimation were shown to result in biased estimates of standard error. In this study, we conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine different methods of variance estimation when using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the effect of treatment. We considered three variance estimation methods: (i) a naïve model-based variance estimator; (ii) a robust sandwich-type variance estimator; and (iii) a bootstrap variance estimator. We considered estimation of both the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect in the treated. We found that the use of a bootstrap estimator resulted in approximately correct estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates. The other estimators resulted in biased estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with incorrect coverage rates. Our simulations were informed by a case study examining the effect of statin prescribing on mortality. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of the effect of alternative measurements of body weight gain and dry matter intake for the calculation of residual feed intake in growing purebred Charolais and Red Angus cattle.

PubMed

Kayser, W; Glaze, J B; Welch, C M; Kerley, M; Hill, R A

2015-07-01

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of alternative-measurements of body weight and DMI used to evaluate residual feed intake (RFI). Weaning weight (WW), ADG, and DMI were recorded on 970 growing purebred Charolais bulls (n = 519) and heifers (n = 451) and 153 Red Angus growing steers (n = 69) and heifers (n = 84) using a GrowSafe (GrowSafe, Airdrie, Alberta, Canada) system. Averages of individual DMI were calculated in 10-d increments and compared to the overall DMI to identify the magnitude of the errors associated with measuring DMI. These incremental measurements were also used in calculation of RFI, computed from the linear regression of DMI on ADG and midtest body weight0.75 (MMWT). RFI_Regress was calculated using ADG_Regress (ADG calculated as the response of BW gain and DOF) and MMWT_PWG (metabolic midweight calculated throughout the postweaning gain test), considered the control in Red Angus. A similar calculation served as control for Charolais; RFI was calculated using 2-d consecutive start and finish weights (RFI_Calc). The RFI weaning weight (RFI_WW) was calculated using ADG_WW (ADG from weaning till the final out weight of the postweaning gain test) and MMWT_WW, calculated similarly. Overall average estimated DMI was highly correlated to the measurements derived over shorter periods, with 10 d being the least correlated and 60 d being the most correlated. The ADG_Calc (calculated using 2-d consecutive start and finish weight/DOF) and ADG_WW were highly correlated in Charolais. The ADG_Regress and ADG_Calc were highly correlated, and ADG_Regress and ADG_WW were moderately correlated in Red Angus. The control measures of RFI were highly correlated with the RFI_WW in Charolais and Red Angus. The outcomes of including abbreviated period DMI in the model with the weaning weight gain measurements showed that the model using 10 d of intake (RFI WW_10) was the least correlated with the control measures. The model with 60 d of intake had the largest correlation with the control measures. The fewest measured intake days coupled with the weaning weight values providing acceptable predictive value was RFI_WW_40, being highly correlated with the control measures. As established in the literature, at least 70 d is required to accurately measure ADG. However, we conclude that a shorter period, possibly as few as 40 d is needed to accurately estimate DMI for a reliable calculation of RFI.

Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz

2018-03-01

Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.

Application of a Taxonomical Structure for Classifying Goods Procured by the Federal Government

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-01

between all pairs of objects. Also called a "tree" or "phenogram". "• UPGMA Clustering Method- (Un--weighted pair-group method using weighted averages...clustering arrangement, specifically, the unweighted pair-group method using arithmetic averages ( UPGMA ) (more commonly known as the 49 average linkage method

The Influence of Herbivory on the net rate of Increase of Gypsy Moth Abundance: A Modeling Analysis

Treesearch

 Harry T.  Valentine

1983-01-01

A differential equation model of gypsy moth abundance, average larval dry weight, and food abundance was used to analyze the effects of changes in foliar chemistry on the net per capita rate of increase in a gypsy moth population. If relative consumption rate per larva is unaffected by herbivory, a reduction in the nutritional value of foliage reduces the net rate of...

Weight trajectory over 20 years and likelihood of mild cognitive impairment or dementia among older women

PubMed Central

LeBlanc, Erin S.; Rizzo, Joanne H.; Pedula, Kathryn L.; Yaffe, Kristine; Ensrud, Kristine E.; Cauley, Jane; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Cummings, Steven; Hillier, Teresa A.

2017-01-01

Background/Objectives The association between weight change and cognition is controversial. We examined the association between 20-year weight change and cognitive function in late life. Design Cohort study. Setting Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). Participants 1,289 older, community-dwelling women (mean baseline age 68 [65–81] and 88 [82–102] at cognitive testing). Measurements SOF participants had body weight measured repeatedly over 20 years (mean 8 weights). Adjudicated cognitive status was classified as normal (n=775) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI)/dementia (n=514) at Year 20. Logistic models were used to evaluate whether absolute weight change, rate of weight loss per year, presence of abrupt, unrecovered weight loss, and weight variability were associated with MCI or dementia. Results Women with greater rate of weight loss over 20 years had increased chance of developing MCI or dementia. In age/education/clinic-adjusted “base” models, each 0.5 kg/year decrease resulted in 30% increased odds of MCI/dementia (OR=1.30 [95% CI: 1.14, 1.49]). After adjustment for age, education, clinic, depression, and walking speed, there was 17% (OR=1.17 [95% CI: 1.02, 1.35]) increased odds of MCI/dementia for each 0.5 kg/year decrease in weight. In base models, variability in weight was significant. Each 1% average deviation from each woman’s predicted weight curve was associated with 11% increased odds of MCI/dementia (OR=1.11 [95% CI: 1.04, 1.18]). The estimate was attenuated after full adjustment (OR=1.06 [95% CI: 0.99, 1.14]). The presence of an abrupt weight decline was not associated with MCI/dementia. Conclusions Rate of weight loss over 20 years was associated with development of MCI or dementia in women surviving past 80 years, suggesting that nutritional status, social-environmental factors, and/or adipose tissue function and structure may affect cognitive function with aging. PMID:27991654

CFD Modelling Applied to the Co-Combustion of Paper Sludge and Coal in a 130 t/h CFB Boiler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Z. S.; Ma, X. Q.; Lai, Z. Y.; Xiao, H. M.

Three-dimensional mathematical model has been developed as a tool for co-combustion of paper sludge and coal in a 130 tJh Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) boiler. Mathematical methods had been used based on a commercial software FLUENT for combustion. The predicted results of CFB furnace show that the co-combustion of paper sludge/coal is initially intensively at the bottom of bed; the temperature reaches its maximum in the dense-phase zone, around l400K. It indicates that paper sludge spout into furnace from the recycle inlet can increase the furnace maximum temperature (l396.3K), area-weighted average temperature (l109.6K) and the furnace gas outlet area-weighted average temperature(996.8K).The mathematical modeling also predicts that 15 mass% paper sludge co-combustion is the highest temperature at the flue gas outlet, it is 1000.8K. Moreover, it is proved that mathematical models can serve as a tool for detailed analysis of co-combustion of paper sludge and coal processes in a circulating fluidized bed furnace when in view of its convenience. The results gained from numerical simulation show that paper sludge enter into furnace from the recycle inlet excelled than mixing with coal and at the underside of phase interface.

Pilot study of a novel tool for input-free automated identification of transition zone prostate tumors using T2- and diffusion-weighted signal and textural features.

PubMed

Stember, Joseph N; Deng, Fang-Ming; Taneja, Samir S; Rosenkrantz, Andrew B

2014-08-01

To present results of a pilot study to develop software that identifies regions suspicious for prostate transition zone (TZ) tumor, free of user input. Eight patients with TZ tumors were used to develop the model by training a Naïve Bayes classifier to detect tumors based on selection of most accurate predictors among various signal and textural features on T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps. Features tested as inputs were: average signal, signal standard deviation, energy, contrast, correlation, homogeneity and entropy (all defined on T2WI); and average ADC. A forward selection scheme was used on the remaining 20% of training set supervoxels to identify important inputs. The trained model was tested on a different set of ten patients, half with TZ tumors. In training cases, the software tiled the TZ with 4 × 4-voxel "supervoxels," 80% of which were used to train the classifier. Each of 100 iterations selected T2WI energy and average ADC, which therefore were deemed the optimal model input. The two-feature model was applied blindly to the separate set of test patients, again without operator input of suspicious foci. The software correctly predicted presence or absence of TZ tumor in all test patients. Furthermore, locations of predicted tumors corresponded spatially with locations of biopsies that had confirmed their presence. Preliminary findings suggest that this tool has potential to accurately predict TZ tumor presence and location, without operator input. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Associations between body weight and depression, social phobia, insomnia, and self-esteem among Taiwanese adolescents.

PubMed

Lee, Jia-In; Yen, Cheng-Fang

2014-12-01

The aims of this cross-sectional study were to examine the associations between body weight and mental health indicators including depression, social phobia, insomnia, and self-esteem among Taiwanese adolescents in Grades 7-12. The body mass index (BMI) of 5254 adolescents was calculated based on self-reported weight and height measurements. Body weight status was determined by the age- and gender-specific International Obesity Task Force reference tables. By using participants of average weight as the reference group, the association between body weight status (underweight, overweight, and obesity) and mental health indicators (depression, social phobia, insomnia, and self-esteem) were examined by using multiple regression analysis. The possible moderating effects of sociodemographic characteristics on the association were also examined. After controlling for the effects of sociodemographic characteristics, both overweight (p < 0.05) and obese adolescents (p < 0.001) had a lower level of self-esteem than did those of average weight; however, no significant differences in depression, social phobia, or insomnia were found between those who were overweight/obese and those of average weight. No significant differences in the four mental health indicators were found between those who were underweight and those of average weight. Sociodemographic characteristics had no moderating effect on the association between body weight and mental health indicators. In conclusion, mental health and school professionals must take the association between overweight/obesity and self-esteem into consideration when approaching the issue of mental health among adolescents. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

[Peruvian newborn fetal growth according to its sex, geographical area, and maternal parity and height].

PubMed

Rendón, Manuel Ticona; Apaza, Diana Huanco

2008-09-01

Birth weight is the most important indicator of fetal growth, fetal development, and nutritional estate of newborn, and several factors affect it. To know the fetal growth of Peruvian newborns according to fetal sex, maternal parity and height, and geographical area. Prospective and cross sectional study. Successive newborn data of 29 hospitals of Ministerio de Salud del Peru was obtained during 2005 year, all of them without intrauterine growth delay. Student ttest was used to compare: male and female, primiparous and multiparous, and coast, mountain, and rainforest newborn average weight (meaningful difference: p < 0.05). Maternal height was related to newborn weight, height, cephalic perimeter, and gestational age. From 50,568 selected alive newborns, male had an average weight from 19 to 41 g higher than female, and multiparous newborns had from 22 to 53 g more than primiparous newborns. Maternal height has a direct connection with newborn weight, height, and cephalic perimeter. Coast newborns had an average weight from 133 to 210 g higher than those from mountain, and from 76 to 142 g higher than those from rainforest; average weight of rainforest newborns was from 19 to 83 g higher to those from mountain. Weight differences due to fetal sex, maternal parity and height, and geographic region were meaningful among 36 to 42 weeks of gestation. Fetal sex, maternal parity and height, and geographical region affect newborn weight. It is recommended to use weight and gestational age as correction factors to appropriately classify Peruvian newborns.

Effects of spatial orientation of prairie vegetation in an agricultural landscape on curve number values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, K.; Dziubanski, D.; Helmers, M. J.

2015-12-01

The simplicity of the Curve Number (CN) method, which summarizes an area's hydrologic soil group, land cover, treatment, and hydrologic condition into a single number, make it a consistently popular choice for modelers. When multiple land cover types are present, a weighted average of the CNs is used. However, the weighted CN does not account for the spatial distribution of different land cover types within the watershed. To overcome this limitation, it becomes necessary to discretize the model into homogenous subunits, perhaps even to the hillslope scale, leading to a more complex model application. The objective of this study is to empirically derive CN values that reflect the effects of placements of native prairie vegetation (NPV) within agricultural landscapes. We derived CN values using precipitation and runoff data from (May 1 - Sept 30 over a 7 year period (2008 - 2014) for 9 ephemeral watersheds in Iowa (USA) ranging from 0.47 to 3.19 ha. The watersheds were planted with varying extents of NPV (0%, 10%, 20%) in different watershed positions (footslope vs. contour strips), with the rest of the watershed as row crop. The derived CN values from watersheds with all row crop were consistent with published values and watersheds with NPV had an average CN reduction of 6.4%, with a maximum reduction of 11.6%. Four of the six sites with treatment had a lower CN than one calculated using a weighted average of look-up values, indicating that accounting for placement of vegetation within the landscape is important for modeling runoff with the CN method. The derived CNs were verified using the leave-one-year-out method (computing CN using data from 6 of the 7 years, and then estimating runoff on the seventh year with that CN). Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values for the estimated runoff typically ranged from 0.4-0.6. Our results suggest that the new CNs could confidently be used in future modeling studies to explore the hydrologic impacts of the NPV treatments at increasingly larger watershed scales.

Mental health consequences of weight cycling in the first-year post-treatment for breast cancer.

PubMed

Pila, Eva; Sabiston, Catherine M; Castonguay, Andrée L; Arbour-Nicitopoulos, Kelly; Taylor, Valerie H

2018-08-01

Weight cycling is linked with advanced breast cancer diagnosis, increased risk of cancer reoccurrence and cancer-related mortality. While women treated for breast cancer report challenges with navigating their post-treatment body shape and weight, the effects of weight cycling on body image and mental health have not been elucidated. This study examined associations between weight changes and weight cycling on psychological health (i.e. weight-related guilt, shame and depressive symptoms) among women in the first-year post-treatment. Self-reported assessments of pre-cancer weight cycling, post-treatment weight-related guilt, shame and depressive symptoms, and objective assessments of weight were assessed in a longitudinal sample of 173 women treated for breast cancer (M age  = 55.01 ± 10.96 years). Based on findings from multilevel models, women experienced the most weight-related shame when their weight was heavier than their personal average. Additionally, heavier weight was associated with worse psychological health, particularly for women with a history of stable (vs. cycling) weight pre-cancer. Weight cycling pre-cancer and post-treatment weight change have important implications for psychological well-being. Due to the potential psychological consequences associated with a history of weight cycling, targeted strategies are needed to improve overall health outcomes for women's survivorship after breast cancer.

The impact of using weight estimated from mammographic images vs. self-reported weight on breast cancer risk calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Kalyani P.; Harkness, Elaine F.; Gadde, Soujanye; Lim, Yit Y.; Maxwell, Anthony J.; Moschidis, Emmanouil; Foden, Philip; Cuzick, Jack; Brentnall, Adam; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

2017-03-01

Personalised breast screening requires assessment of individual risk of breast cancer, of which one contributory factor is weight. Self-reported weight has been used for this purpose, but may be unreliable. We explore the use of volume of fat in the breast, measured from digital mammograms. Volumetric breast density measurements were used to determine the volume of fat in the breasts of 40,431 women taking part in the Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study. Tyrer-Cuzick risk using self-reported weight was calculated for each woman. Weight was also estimated from the relationship between self-reported weight and breast fat volume in the cohort, and used to re-calculate Tyrer-Cuzick risk. Women were assigned to risk categories according to 10 year risk (below average <2%, average 2-3.49%, above average 3.5-4.99%, moderate 5-7.99%, high >=8%) and the original and re-calculated Tyrer-Cuzick risks were compared. Of the 716 women diagnosed with breast cancer during the study, 15 (2.1%) moved into a lower risk category, and 37 (5.2%) moved into a higher category when using weight estimated from breast fat volume. Of the 39,715 women without a cancer diagnosis, 1009 (2.5%) moved into a lower risk category, and 1721 (4.3%) into a higher risk category. The majority of changes were between below average and average risk categories (38.5% of those with a cancer diagnosis, and 34.6% of those without). No individual moved more than one risk group. Automated breast fat measures may provide a suitable alternative to self-reported weight for risk assessment in personalized screening.

The Status at Two Years of Low-Birth-Weight Infants Born in 1974 with Birth Weights of Less Than 1,001 gm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pape, K. E.; And Others

1978-01-01

For availibility see EC 103 548 Among findings of a 2-year followup study of 43 infants of birth weight less than 1000 grams were the following: average height at age 2 years was between the tenth and twenty-fifth percentiles; average weight was between the third and tenth percentiles; 15 Ss developed lower respiratory tract infections during the…

An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

2018-03-01

Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

Localized Multi-Model Extremes Metrics for the Fourth National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, T. R.; Kunkel, K.; Stevens, L. E.; Easterling, D. R.; Biard, J.; Sun, L.

2017-12-01

We have performed localized analysis of scenario-based datasets for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). These datasets include CMIP5-based Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled simulations at daily temporal resolution and 1/16th-degree spatial resolution. Over 45 temperature and precipitation extremes metrics have been processed using LOCA data, including threshold, percentile, and degree-days calculations. The localized analysis calculates trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes metrics for relatively small regions such as counties, metropolitan areas, climate zones, administrative areas, or economic zones. For NCA4, we are currently addressing metropolitan areas as defined by U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Such localized analysis provides essential information for adaptation planning at scales relevant to local planning agencies and businesses. Nearly 30 such regions have been analyzed to date. Each locale is defined by a closed polygon that is used to extract LOCA-based extremes metrics specific to the area. For each metric, single-model data at each LOCA grid location are first averaged over several 30-year historical and future periods. Then, for each metric, the spatial average across the region is calculated using model weights based on both model independence and reproducibility of current climate conditions. The range of single-model results is also captured on the same localized basis, and then combined with the weighted ensemble average for each region and each metric. For example, Boston-area cooling degree days and maximum daily temperature is shown below for RCP8.5 (red) and RCP4.5 (blue) scenarios. We also discuss inter-regional comparison of these metrics, as well as their relevance to risk analysis for adaptation planning.

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models. Crown Copyright ?? 2008.

Effect of clothing weight on body weight.

PubMed

Whigham, L D; Schoeller, D A; Johnson, L K; Atkinson, R L

2013-01-01

In clinical settings, it is common to measure weight of clothed patients and estimate a correction for the weight of clothing, but we can find no papers in the medical literature regarding the variability in clothing weight of adults with weather, season and gender. Fifty adults (35 women) were weighed four times during a 12-month period with and without clothing. Clothing weights were determined and regressed against minimum, maximum and average daily outdoor temperature. The average clothing weight (±s.d.) throughout the year was significantly greater in men than in women (1.2±0.3 vs 0.8±0.3 kg, P<0.0001). The average within-person minimum and the average within-person maximum clothing weights across the year were 0.9±0.2 and 1.5±0.4 kg for men, and 0.5±0.2 and 1.1±0.4 kg for women, respectively. The within-person s.d. in clothing weight was 0.3 kg for both men and women. Over the 55 °C range in the lowest to the highest outdoor temperatures, the regressions predicted a maximal change in clothing weight of only 0.4 kg in women and 0.6 kg in men. The clothing weight of men is significantly greater than that of women, but there is little variability throughout the year. Therefore, a clothing adjustment of approximately 0.8 kg for women and 1.2 kg for men is appropriate regardless of outdoor temperature.

Breastfeeding and maternal weight changes during 24 months post-partum: a cohort study.

PubMed

da Silva, Maria da Conceição M; Oliveira Assis, Ana Marlúcia; Pinheiro, Sandra Maria C; de Oliveira, Lucivalda Pereira Magalhães; da Cruz, Thomaz Rodrigues P

2015-10-01

The relationship between breastfeeding and the loss of weight gained during pregnancy remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between breastfeeding and maternal weight changes during 24 months post-partum. We studied a dynamic cohort comprising 315 women living in two cities in the state of Bahia, Brazil. The outcome variable was change in the post-partum weight; the exposure variable was the duration and intensity of breastfeeding. Demographic, socio-economic, environmental, reproductive and lifestyle factors were integrated in the analysis as covariates. The data were analysed using multiple linear regression and linear mixed-effects models. The average cumulative weight loss at 6 months post-partum was 2.561 kg (SD 4.585), increasing at 12 months (3.066 kg; SD 5.098) and decreasing at 18 months (1.993 kg; SD 5.340), being 1.353 kg (SD, 5.574) at 24 months post-partum. After adjustment, the data indicated that for every 1-point increase in breastfeeding score, the estimated average post-partum weight loss observed was 0.191 kg at 6 months (P = 0.03), 0.090 kg at 12 months (P = 0.043), 0.123 kg at 18 months (P < 0.001) and 0.077 kg at 24 months (P = 0.001). Based on these results, we concluded that despite the low expressiveness, the intensity and duration of breastfeeding was associated with post-partum weight loss at all stages of the study during the 24-month follow-up. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Factors that affect molecular weight distribution of Suwannee river fulvic acid as determined by electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rostad, Colleen E.; Leenheer, Jerry A.

2004-01-01

Effects of methylation, molar response, multiple charging, solvents, and positive and negative ionization on molecular weight distributions of aquatic fulvic acid were investigated by electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry. After preliminary analysis by positive and negative modes, samples and mixtures of standards were derivatized by methylation to minimize ionization sites and reanalyzed.Positive ionization was less effective and produced more complex spectra than negative ionization. Ionization in methanol/water produced greater response than in acetonitrile/water. Molar response varied widely for the selected free acid standards when analyzed individually and in a mixture, but after methylation this range decreased. After methylation, the number average molecular weight of the Suwannee River fulvic acid remained the same while the weight average molecular weight decreased. These differences are probably indicative of disaggregation of large aggregated ions during methylation. Since the weight average molecular weight decreased, it is likely that aggregate formation in the fulvic acid was present prior to derivatization, rather than multiple charging in the mass spectra.

At Wake Forest U., Admissions Has Become "More Art than Science"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoover, Eric

2009-01-01

The admissions process is awash in numbers. Students accumulate grade-point averages and test scores. Colleges use statistical models to predict enrollment outcomes, and they tout their place in commercial rankings. In many ways, numbers simplify this complex enterprise. However, they have come to carry undue weight, says Martha Blevins Allman,…

a Fast Method for Measuring the Similarity Between 3d Model and 3d Point Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zongliang; Li, Jonathan; Li, Xin; Lin, Yangbin; Zhang, Shanxin; Wang, Cheng

2016-06-01

This paper proposes a fast method for measuring the partial Similarity between 3D Model and 3D point Cloud (SimMC). It is crucial to measure SimMC for many point cloud-related applications such as 3D object retrieval and inverse procedural modelling. In our proposed method, the surface area of model and the Distance from Model to point Cloud (DistMC) are exploited as measurements to calculate SimMC. Here, DistMC is defined as the weighted distance of the distances between points sampled from model and point cloud. Similarly, Distance from point Cloud to Model (DistCM) is defined as the average distance of the distances between points in point cloud and model. In order to reduce huge computational burdens brought by calculation of DistCM in some traditional methods, we define SimMC as the ratio of weighted surface area of model to DistMC. Compared to those traditional SimMC measuring methods that are only able to measure global similarity, our method is capable of measuring partial similarity by employing distance-weighted strategy. Moreover, our method is able to be faster than other partial similarity assessment methods. We demonstrate the superiority of our method both on synthetic data and laser scanning data.

An improved correlation to predict molecular weight between crosslinks based on equilibrium degree of swelling of hydrogel networks.

PubMed

Jimenez-Vergara, Andrea C; Lewis, John; Hahn, Mariah S; Munoz-Pinto, Dany J

2018-04-01

Accurate characterization of hydrogel diffusional properties is of substantial importance for a range of biotechnological applications. The diffusional capacity of hydrogels has commonly been estimated using the average molecular weight between crosslinks (M c ), which is calculated based on the equilibrium degree of swelling. However, the existing correlation linking M c and equilibrium swelling fails to accurately reflect the diffusional properties of highly crosslinked hydrogel networks. Also, as demonstrated herein, the current model fails to accurately predict the diffusional properties of hydrogels when polymer concentration and molecular weight are varied simultaneously. To address these limitations, we evaluated the diffusional properties of 48 distinct hydrogel formulations using two different photoinitiator systems, employing molecular size exclusion as an alternative methodology to calculate average hydrogel mesh size. The resulting data were then utilized to develop a revised correlation between M c and hydrogel equilibrium swelling that substantially reduces the limitations associated with the current correlation. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 106B: 1339-1348, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic aggregation operators and their application to multi-criteria group decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şahin, Rıdvan; Liu, Peide

2017-07-01

Simplified neutrosophic set (SNS) is an appropriate tool used to express the incompleteness, indeterminacy and uncertainty of the evaluation objects in decision-making process. In this study, we define the concept of possibility SNS including two types of information such as the neutrosophic performance provided from the evaluation objects and its possibility degree using a value ranging from zero to one. Then by extending the existing neutrosophic information, aggregation models for SNSs that cannot be used effectively to fusion the two different information described above, we propose two novel neutrosophic aggregation operators considering possibility, which are named as a possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted arithmetic averaging operator and possibility-induced simplified neutrosophic weighted geometric averaging operator, and discuss their properties. Moreover, we develop a useful method based on the proposed aggregation operators for solving a multi-criteria group decision-making problem with the possibility simplified neutrosophic information, in which the weights of decision-makers and decision criteria are calculated based on entropy measure. Finally, a practical example is utilised to show the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

The total body length and body weight examination among gabus Sentani fish population, Oxyeleotris heterodon, Weber 1907 (Pisces: Eleotridae) of Sentani lake, Papua, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriyani, E. D.; Abinawanto, Bowolaksono, A.

2017-07-01

The gabus Sentani fish lived in the Sentani Lake, Papua, since million years ago. Nowadays, the population of those species is getting extinct because of the overexploitation, whereas the culture effort of this species has not been developed, yet. The purpose of the study was to examine the total body length and body weight collected from some villages surrounding Sentani Lake such as Ifar village, Sosiri village, and Putali village. The body weight average of gabus fish from Ifar village, Sosiri village, and Putali village were 373.53 g, 426.86 g, and 118.34 g respectively. While the total body length average of gabus Sentani fish from Ifar village, Sosiri village, and Putali village were 279.30 mm, 223.30 mm and 222.06 mm, respectively. The growth model was W = 0.021067L3.086 with R2 value was 35.8 %, and r value was 0.598. Gabus Sentani fish, Oxyeleotris heterodon (Weber 1907) exhibited positive allometric (b > 3).

Maternal mental health and nutritional status of six-month-old infants

PubMed Central

Hassan, Bruna Kulik; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; Hasselmann, Maria Helena

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze if maternal mental health is associated with infant nutritional status at six month of age. METHODS A cross-sectional study with 228 six-month-old infants who used primary health care units of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. Mean weight-for-length and mean weight-for-age were expressed in z-scores considering the 2006 World Health Organization reference curves. Maternal mental health was measured by the 12-item General Health Questionnaire. The following cutoff points were used: ≥ 3 for common mental disorders, ≥ 5 for more severe mental disorders, and ≥ 9 for depression. The statistical analysis employed adjusted linear regression models. RESULTS The prevalence of common mental disorders, more severe mental disorders and depression was 39.9%, 23.7%, and 8.3%, respectively. Children of women with more severe mental disorders had, on average, a weight-for-length 0.37 z-scores lower than children of women without this health harm (p = 0.026). We also observed that the weight-for-length indicator of children of depressed mothers was, on average, 0.67 z-scores lower than that of children of nondepressed women (p = 0.010). Maternal depression was associated with lower mean values of weight-for-age z-scores (p = 0.041). CONCLUSIONS Maternal mental health is positively related to the inadequacy of the nutritional status of infants at six months. PMID:27007683

Maternal mental health and nutritional status of six-month-old infants.

PubMed

Hassan, Bruna Kulik; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; Hasselmann, Maria Helena

2016-01-01

To analyze if maternal mental health is associated with infant nutritional status at six month of age. A cross-sectional study with 228 six-month-old infants who used primary health care units of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. Mean weight-for-length and mean weight-for-age were expressed in z-scores considering the 2006 World Health Organization reference curves. Maternal mental health was measured by the 12-item General Health Questionnaire. The following cutoff points were used: ≥ 3 for common mental disorders, ≥ 5 for more severe mental disorders, and ≥ 9 for depression. The statistical analysis employed adjusted linear regression models. The prevalence of common mental disorders, more severe mental disorders and depression was 39.9%, 23.7%, and 8.3%, respectively. Children of women with more severe mental disorders had, on average, a weight-for-length 0.37 z-scores lower than children of women without this health harm (p = 0.026). We also observed that the weight-for-length indicator of children of depressed mothers was, on average, 0.67 z-scores lower than that of children of nondepressed women (p = 0.010). Maternal depression was associated with lower mean values of weight-for-age z-scores (p = 0.041). Maternal mental health is positively related to the inadequacy of the nutritional status of infants at six months.

Regularized learning of linear ordered-statistic constant false alarm rate filters (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, Timothy C.; Cummings, Ian; Botts, Jonathan; Summers, Jason E.

2017-05-01

The linear ordered statistic (LOS) is a parameterized ordered statistic (OS) that is a weighted average of a rank-ordered sample. LOS operators are useful generalizations of aggregation as they can represent any linear aggregation, from minimum to maximum, including conventional aggregations, such as mean and median. In the fuzzy logic field, these aggregations are called ordered weighted averages (OWAs). Here, we present a method for learning LOS operators from training data, viz., data for which you know the output of the desired LOS. We then extend the learning process with regularization, such that a lower complexity or sparse LOS can be learned. Hence, we discuss what 'lower complexity' means in this context and how to represent that in the optimization procedure. Finally, we apply our learning methods to the well-known constant-false-alarm-rate (CFAR) detection problem, specifically for the case of background levels modeled by long-tailed distributions, such as the K-distribution. These backgrounds arise in several pertinent imaging problems, including the modeling of clutter in synthetic aperture radar and sonar (SAR and SAS) and in wireless communications.

Application Bayesian Model Averaging method for ensemble system for Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzikowski, Jakub; Czerwinska, Agnieszka

2014-05-01

The aim of the project is to evaluate methods for generating numerical ensemble weather prediction using a meteorological data from The Weather Research & Forecasting Model and calibrating this data by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (WRF BMA) approach. We are constructing height resolution short range ensemble forecasts using meteorological data (temperature) generated by nine WRF's models. WRF models have 35 vertical levels and 2.5 km x 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The main emphasis is that the used ensemble members has a different parameterization of the physical phenomena occurring in the boundary layer. To calibrate an ensemble forecast we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The BMA predictive Probability Density Function (PDF) is a weighted average of predictive PDFs associated with each individual ensemble member, with weights that reflect the member's relative skill. For test we chose a case with heat wave and convective weather conditions in Poland area from 23th July to 1st August 2013. From 23th July to 29th July 2013 temperature oscillated below or above 30 Celsius degree in many meteorology stations and new temperature records were added. During this time the growth of the hospitalized patients with cardiovascular system problems was registered. On 29th July 2013 an advection of moist tropical air masses was recorded in the area of Poland causes strong convection event with mesoscale convection system (MCS). MCS caused local flooding, damage to the transport infrastructure, destroyed buildings, trees and injuries and direct threat of life. Comparison of the meteorological data from ensemble system with the data recorded on 74 weather stations localized in Poland is made. We prepare a set of the model - observations pairs. Then, the obtained data from single ensemble members and median from WRF BMA system are evaluated on the basis of the deterministic statistical error Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To evaluation probabilistic data The Brier Score (BS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) were used. Finally comparison between BMA calibrated data and data from ensemble members will be displayed.

No direct by maternal effects interaction detected for pre-weaning growth in Romane sheep using a reaction norm model.

PubMed

David, Ingrid; Bouvier, Frédéric; Ricard, Edmond; Ruesche, Julien; Weisbecker, Jean-Louis

2013-09-30

The pre-weaning growth of lambs, an important component of meat production, depends on maternal and direct effects. These effects cannot be observed directly and models used to study pre-weaning growth assume that they are additive. However, it is reasonable to suggest that the influence of direct effects on growth may differ depending on the value of maternal effects i.e. an interaction may exist between the two components. To test this hypothesis, an experiment was carried out in Romane sheep in order to obtain observations of maternal phenotypic effects (milk yield and milk quality) and pre-weaning growth of the lambs. The experiment consisted of mating ewes that had markedly different maternal genetic effects with rams that contributed very different genetic effects in four replicates of a 3 × 2 factorial plan. Milk yield was measured using the lamb suckling weight differential technique and milk composition (fat and protein contents) was determined by infrared spectroscopy at 15, 21 and 35 days after lambing. Lambs were weighed at birth and then at 15, 21 and 35 days. An interaction between genotype (of the lamb) and environment (milk yield and quality) for average daily gain was tested using a restricted likelihood ratio test, comparing a linear reaction norm model (interaction model) to a classical additive model (no interaction model). A total of 1284 weights of 442 lambs born from 166 different ewes were analysed. On average, the ewes produced 2.3 ± 0.8 L milk per day. The average protein and fat contents were 50 ± 4 g/L and 60 ± 18 g/L, respectively. The mean 0-35 day average daily gain was 207 ± 46 g/d. Results of the restricted likelihood ratio tests did not highlight any significant interactions between the genotype of the lambs and milk production of the ewe. Our results support the hypothesis of additivity of maternal and direct effects on growth that is currently applied in genetic evaluation models.

ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment): A Research Model to Improve the Governance of Prescribing Funds in Italy

PubMed Central

Favato, Giampiero; Mariani, Paolo; Mills, Roger W.; Capone, Alessandro; Pelagatti, Matteo; Pieri, Vasco; Marcobelli, Alberico; Trotta, Maria G.; Zucchi, Alberto; Catapano, Alberico L.

2007-01-01

Background The primary objective of this study was to make the first step in the modelling of pharmaceutical demand in Italy, by deriving a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices. The experimental model was called ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment). Methods and Major Findings Individual prescription costs and demographic data referred to 3,175,691 Italian subjects and were collected directly from three Regional Health Authorities over the 12-month period between October 2004 and September 2005. The mean annual prescription cost per individual was similar for males (196.13 euro) and females (195.12 euro). After 65 years of age, the mean prescribing costs for males were significantly higher than females. On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25–34 year-old subject if male, 8 times if female. Subjects over 65 years of age (22% of total population) accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs. The weightings explained approximately 90% of the evolution of total prescribing costs, in spite of the pricing and reimbursement turbulences affecting Italy in the 2000–2005 period. The ASSET weightings were able to explain only about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals. Conclusions If mainly idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners causes the unexplained variations, the introduction of capitation-based budgets would gradually move practices with high prescribing costs towards the national average. It is also possible, though, that the unexplained individual variation in prescribing costs is the result of differences in the clinical characteristics or socio-economic conditions of practice populations. If this is the case, capitation-based budgets may lead to unfair distribution of resources. The ASSET age/sex weightings should be used as a guide, not as the ultimate determinant, for an equitable allocation of prescribing resources to regional authorities and general practices. PMID:17611624

ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment): a research model to improve the governance of prescribing funds in Italy.

PubMed

Favato, Giampiero; Mariani, Paolo; Mills, Roger W; Capone, Alessandro; Pelagatti, Matteo; Pieri, Vasco; Marcobelli, Alberico; Trotta, Maria G; Zucchi, Alberto; Catapano, Alberico L

2007-07-04

The primary objective of this study was to make the first step in the modelling of pharmaceutical demand in Italy, by deriving a weighted capitation model to account for demographic differences among general practices. The experimental model was called ASSET (Age/Sex Standardised Estimates of Treatment). Individual prescription costs and demographic data referred to 3,175,691 Italian subjects and were collected directly from three Regional Health Authorities over the 12-month period between October 2004 and September 2005. The mean annual prescription cost per individual was similar for males (196.13 euro) and females (195.12 euro). After 65 years of age, the mean prescribing costs for males were significantly higher than females. On average, costs for a 75-year-old subject would be 12 times the costs for a 25-34 year-old subject if male, 8 times if female. Subjects over 65 years of age (22% of total population) accounted for 56% of total prescribing costs. The weightings explained approximately 90% of the evolution of total prescribing costs, in spite of the pricing and reimbursement turbulences affecting Italy in the 2000-2005 period. The ASSET weightings were able to explain only about 25% of the variation in prescribing costs among individuals. If mainly idiosyncratic prescribing by general practitioners causes the unexplained variations, the introduction of capitation-based budgets would gradually move practices with high prescribing costs towards the national average. It is also possible, though, that the unexplained individual variation in prescribing costs is the result of differences in the clinical characteristics or socio-economic conditions of practice populations. If this is the case, capitation-based budgets may lead to unfair distribution of resources. The ASSET age/sex weightings should be used as a guide, not as the ultimate determinant, for an equitable allocation of prescribing resources to regional authorities and general practices.

Effect of onsite dietitian counseling on weight loss and lipid levels in an outpatient physician office.

PubMed

Welty, Francine K; Nasca, Melita M; Lew, Natalie S; Gregoire, Sue; Ruan, Yuheng

2007-07-01

We examined the effect of an outpatient office-based diet and exercise counseling program on weight loss and lipid levels with an onsite dietitian who sees patients at the same visit with the physician and is fully reimbursable. Eighty overweight or obese patients (average age 55 +/- 12 years, baseline body mass index 30.1 +/- 6.4 kg/m(2)) with > or =1 cardiovascular risk factor (86%) or coronary heart disease (14%) were counseled to exercise 30 minutes/day and eat a modified Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet (saturated fat <7%, polyunsaturated fat to 10%, monounsaturated fat to 18%, low in glycemic index and sodium and high in fiber, low-fat dairy products, fruits, and vegetables). Weight, body mass index, lipid levels, and blood pressure were measured at 1 concurrent follow-up visit with the dietitian and physician and > or =1 additional follow-up with the physician. Maximum weight lost was an average of 5.6% (10.8 lb) at a mean follow-up of 1.75 years. Sixty-four (81%) of these patients maintained significant weight loss (average weight loss 5.3%) at a mean follow-up of 2.6 years. Average decrease in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was 9.3%, average decrease in triglycerides was 34%, and average increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was 9.6%. Systolic blood pressure was lowered from 129 to 126 mm Hg (p = 0.21) and diastolic blood pressure from 79 to 75 mm Hg (p = 0.003). In conclusion, having a dietitian counsel patients concurrently with a physician in the outpatient setting is effective in achieving and maintaining weight loss and is fully reimbursable.

Implicit and explicit prejudice toward overweight and average-weight men and women: testing their correspondence and relation to behavioral intentions.

PubMed

Brochu, Paula M; Morrison, Melanie A

2007-12-01

The authors examined prejudice toward overweight men and women. Participants (N = 76) indicated their perceptions, attitudes, behavioral intentions, and implicit associations toward an average-weight or overweight man or woman. Results indicated the presence of explicit and implicit antifat prejudice, with male participants showing greater negativity toward overweight targets. Analyses of covariance indicated that overweight targets received greater derogation than did their average-weight counterparts, regardless, for the most part, of the target's gender. With one exception, no significant relations emerged between explicit and implicit measures of weight bias. The authors discuss limitations of the study and implications for future research.

40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Fffff of... - Initial Compliance With Emission and Opacity Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... flow-weighted average concentration of particulate matter from one or more control devices applied to...). 4. Each discharge end at a new sinter plant a. The flow-weighted average concentration of... BOPF at a new or existing BOPF shop a. The average concentration of particulate matter from a primary...

40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Fffff of... - Initial Compliance With Emission and Opacity Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... flow-weighted average concentration of particulate matter from one or more control devices applied to...). 4. Each discharge end at a new sinter plant a. The flow-weighted average concentration of... BOPF at a new or existing BOPF shop a. The average concentration of particulate matter from a primary...

40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Fffff of... - Initial Compliance With Emission and Opacity Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... flow-weighted average concentration of particulate matter from one or more control devices applied to...). 4. Each discharge end at a new sinter plant a. The flow-weighted average concentration of... BOPF at a new or existing BOPF shop a. The average concentration of particulate matter from a primary...

40 CFR Table 2 to Subpart Fffff of... - Initial Compliance With Emission and Opacity Limits

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... flow-weighted average concentration of particulate matter from one or more control devices applied to...). 4. Each discharge end at a new sinter plant a. The flow-weighted average concentration of... BOPF at a new or existing BOPF shop a. The average concentration of particulate matter from a primary...

Capacity for Physical Activity Predicts Weight Loss After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass

PubMed Central

Hatoum, Ida J.; Stein, Heather K.; Merrifield, Benjamin F.; Kaplan, Lee M.

2014-01-01

Despite its overall excellent outcomes, weight loss after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is highly variable. We conducted this study to identify clinical predictors of weight loss after RYGB. We reviewed charts from 300 consecutive patients who underwent RYGB from August 1999 to November 2002. Data collected included patient demographics, medical comorbidities, and diet history. Of the 20 variables selected for univariate analysis, 9 with univariate P values ≤ 0.15 were entered into a multivariable regression analysis. Using backward selection, covariates with P < 0.05 were retained. Potential confounders were added back into the model and assessed for effect on all model variables. Complete records were available for 246 of the 300 patients (82%). The patient characteristics were 75% female, 93% white, mean age of 45 years, and mean initial BMI of 52.3 kg/m2. One year after surgery, patients lost an average of 64.8% of their excess weight (s.d. = 20.5%). The multivariable regression analysis revealed that limited physical activity, higher initial BMI, lower educational level, diabetes, and decreased attendance at postoperative appointments had an adverse effect on weight loss after RYGB. A model including these five factors accounts for 41% of the observed variability in weight loss (adjusted r2 = 0.41). In this cohort, higher initial BMI and limited physical activity were the strongest predictors of decreased excess weight loss following RYGB. Limited physical activity may be particularly important because it represents an opportunity for potentially meaningful pre- and postsurgical intervention to maximize weight loss following RYGB. PMID:18997674

Investigating the Group-Level Impact of Advanced Dual-Echo fMRI Combinations

PubMed Central

Kettinger, Ádám; Hill, Christopher; Vidnyánszky, Zoltán; Windischberger, Christian; Nagy, Zoltán

2016-01-01

Multi-echo fMRI data acquisition has been widely investigated and suggested to optimize sensitivity for detecting the BOLD signal. Several methods have also been proposed for the combination of data with different echo times. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether these advanced echo combination methods provide advantages over the simple averaging of echoes when state-of-the-art group-level random-effect analyses are performed. Both resting-state and task-based dual-echo fMRI data were collected from 27 healthy adult individuals (14 male, mean age = 25.75 years) using standard echo-planar acquisition methods at 3T. Both resting-state and task-based data were subjected to a standard image pre-processing pipeline. Subsequently the two echoes were combined as a weighted average, using four different strategies for calculating the weights: (1) simple arithmetic averaging, (2) BOLD sensitivity weighting, (3) temporal-signal-to-noise ratio weighting and (4) temporal BOLD sensitivity weighting. Our results clearly show that the simple averaging of data with the different echoes is sufficient. Advanced echo combination methods may provide advantages on a single-subject level but when considering random-effects group level statistics they provide no benefit regarding sensitivity (i.e., group-level t-values) compared to the simple echo-averaging approach. One possible reason for the lack of clear advantages may be that apart from increasing the average BOLD sensitivity at the single-subject level, the advanced weighted averaging methods also inflate the inter-subject variance. As the echo combination methods provide very similar results, the recommendation is to choose between them depending on the availability of time for collecting additional resting-state data or whether subject-level or group-level analyses are planned. PMID:28018165

Association between change in body weight after midlife and risk of hip fracture—the Singapore Chinese Health Study

PubMed Central

Ang, L.-W.; Yuan, J.-M.; Koh, W.-P.

2015-01-01

Summary The relationship between change in body weight and risk of fractures is inconsistent in epidemiologic studies. In this cohort of middle-aged to elderly Chinese in Singapore, compared to stable weight, weight loss ≥10%over an average of 6 years is associated with nearly 40%increase in risk of hip fracture. Introduction Findings on the relationship between change in body weight and risk of hip fracture are inconsistent. In this study, we examined this association among middle-aged and elderly Chinese in Singapore. Methods We used prospective data from the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a population-based cohort of 63,257 Chinese men and women aged 45–74 years at recruitment in 1993–1998. Body weight and height were self-reported at recruitment and reassessed during follow-up interview in 1999–2004. Percent in weight change was computed based on the weight difference over an average of 6 years, and categorized as loss ≥10 %, loss 5 to <10 %, loss or gain <5 % (stable weight), gain 5 to <10 %, and gain ≥10 %. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied with adjustment for risk factors for hip fracture and body mass index (BMI) reported at follow-up interview. Results About 12 % experienced weight loss ≥10 %, and another 12% had weight gain ≥10 %. After a mean follow-up of 9.0 years, we identified 775 incident hip fractures among 42,149 eligible participants. Compared to stable weight, weight loss ≥10 % was associated with 39 % increased risk (hazard ratio 1.39; 95%confidence interval 1.14, 1.69). Such elevated risk with weight loss ≥10%was observed in both genders and age groups at follow-up (≤65 and >65 years) and in those with baseline BMI ≥20 kg/m2. There was no significant association with weight gain. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that substantial weight loss is an important risk factor for osteoporotic hip fractures among the middle-aged to elderly Chinese. PMID:25868509

Modified Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Control Chart on Autocorrelation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdiani, Erna Tri; Fandrilla, Geysa; Sunusi, Nurtiti

2018-03-01

In general, observations of the statistical process control are assumed to be mutually independence. However, this assumption is often violated in practice. Consequently, statistical process controls were developed for interrelated processes, including Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM), and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts in the data that were autocorrelation. One researcher stated that this chart is not suitable if the same control limits are used in the case of independent variables. For this reason, it is necessary to apply the time series model in building the control chart. A classical control chart for independent variables is usually applied to residual processes. This procedure is permitted provided that residuals are independent. In 1978, Shewhart modification for the autoregressive process was introduced by using the distance between the sample mean and the target value compared to the standard deviation of the autocorrelation process. In this paper we will examine the mean of EWMA for autocorrelation process derived from Montgomery and Patel. Performance to be investigated was investigated by examining Average Run Length (ARL) based on the Markov Chain Method.

Quantitative quasiperiodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Suddhasattwa; Saiki, Yoshitaka; Sander, Evelyn; Yorke, James A.

2017-11-01

The Birkhoff ergodic theorem concludes that time averages, i.e. Birkhoff averages, B_N( f):=Σn=0N-1 f(x_n)/N of a function f along a length N ergodic trajectory (x_n) of a function T converge to the space average \\int f dμ , where μ is the unique invariant probability measure. Convergence of the time average to the space average is slow. We use a modified average of f(x_n) by giving very small weights to the ‘end’ terms when n is near 0 or N-1 . When (x_n) is a trajectory on a quasiperiodic torus and f and T are C^∞ , our weighted Birkhoff average (denoted \

Comparison of ArcGIS and SAS Geostatistical Analyst to Estimate Population-Weighted Monthly Temperature for US Counties

PubMed Central

Xiaopeng, QI; Liang, WEI; BARKER, Laurie; LEKIACHVILI, Akaki; Xingyou, ZHANG

2015-01-01

Temperature changes are known to have significant impacts on human health. Accurate estimates of population-weighted average monthly air temperature for US counties are needed to evaluate temperature’s association with health behaviours and disease, which are sampled or reported at the county level and measured on a monthly—or 30-day—basis. Most reported temperature estimates were calculated using ArcGIS, relatively few used SAS. We compared the performance of geostatistical models to estimate population-weighted average temperature in each month for counties in 48 states using ArcGIS v9.3 and SAS v 9.2 on a CITGO platform. Monthly average temperature for Jan-Dec 2007 and elevation from 5435 weather stations were used to estimate the temperature at county population centroids. County estimates were produced with elevation as a covariate. Performance of models was assessed by comparing adjusted R2, mean squared error, root mean squared error, and processing time. Prediction accuracy for split validation was above 90% for 11 months in ArcGIS and all 12 months in SAS. Cokriging in SAS achieved higher prediction accuracy and lower estimation bias as compared to cokriging in ArcGIS. County-level estimates produced by both packages were positively correlated (adjusted R2 range=0.95 to 0.99); accuracy and precision improved with elevation as a covariate. Both methods from ArcGIS and SAS are reliable for U.S. county-level temperature estimates; However, ArcGIS’s merits in spatial data pre-processing and processing time may be important considerations for software selection, especially for multi-year or multi-state projects. PMID:26167169

Quantitative precipitation estimates for the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau over the last 18,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Cheng, Bo; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

2017-05-01

Quantitative information regarding the long-term variability of precipitation and vegetation during the period covering both the Late Glacial and the Holocene on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is scarce. Herein, we provide new and numerical reconstructions for annual mean precipitation (PANN) and vegetation history over the last 18,000 years using high-resolution pollen data from Lakes Dalianhai and Qinghai on the northeastern QTP. Hitherto, five calibration techniques including weighted averaging, weighted average-partial least squares regression, modern analogue technique, locally weighted weighted averaging regression, and maximum likelihood were first employed to construct robust inference models and to produce reliable PANN estimates on the QTP. The biomization method was applied for reconstructing the vegetation dynamics. The study area was dominated by steppe and characterized with a highly variable, relatively dry climate at 18,000-11,000 cal years B.P. PANN increased since the early Holocene, obtained a maximum at 8000-3000 cal years B.P. with coniferous-temperate mixed forest as the dominant biome, and thereafter declined to present. The PANN reconstructions are broadly consistent with other proxy-based paleoclimatic records from the northeastern QTP and the northern region of monsoonal China. The possible mechanisms behind the precipitation changes may be tentatively attributed to the internal feedback processes of higher latitude (e.g., North Atlantic) and lower latitude (e.g., subtropical monsoon) competing climatic regimes, which are primarily modulated by solar energy output as the external driving force. These findings may provide important insights into understanding the future Asian precipitation dynamics under the projected global warming.

Weight change among people randomized to minimal intervention control groups in weight loss trials.

PubMed

Johns, David J; Hartmann-Boyce, Jamie; Jebb, Susan A; Aveyard, Paul

2016-04-01

Evidence on the effectiveness of behavioral weight management programs often comes from uncontrolled program evaluations. These frequently make the assumption that, without intervention, people will gain weight. The aim of this study was to use data from minimal intervention control groups in randomized controlled trials to examine the evidence for this assumption and the effect of frequency of weighing on weight change. Data were extracted from minimal intervention control arms in a systematic review of multicomponent behavioral weight management programs. Two reviewers classified control arms into three categories based on intensity of minimal intervention and calculated 12-month mean weight change using baseline observation carried forward. Meta-regression was conducted in STATA v12. Thirty studies met the inclusion criteria, twenty-nine of which had usable data, representing 5,963 participants allocated to control arms. Control arms were categorized according to intensity, as offering leaflets only, a single session of advice, or more than one session of advice from someone without specialist skills in supporting weight loss. Mean weight change at 12 months across all categories was -0.8 kg (95% CI -1.1 to -0.4). In an unadjusted model, increasing intensity by moving up a category was associated with an additional weight loss of -0.53 kg (95% CI -0.96 to -0.09). Also in an unadjusted model, each additional weigh-in was associated with a weight change of -0.42 kg (95% CI -0.81 to -0.03). However, when both variables were placed in the same model, neither intervention category nor number of weigh-ins was associated with weight change. Uncontrolled evaluations of weight loss programs should assume that, in the absence of intervention, their population would weigh up to a kilogram on average less than baseline at the end of the first year of follow-up. © 2016 The Authors Obesity published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Obesity Society (TOS).

A prospective study of dietary intakes and influential factors from pregnancy to postpartum on maternal weight retention in Taipei, Taiwan.

PubMed

Lyu, Li-Ching; Lo, Chaio-Chen; Chen, Heng-Fei; Wang, Chia-Yu; Liu, Dou-Ming

2009-12-01

Excessive gestational weight gain and postpartum weight retention are risk factors for female obesity. The present study was to examine dietary intakes and weight history from a prospective follow-up study from early pregnancy to 1 year postpartum. A total of 151 pregnant women within 20 weeks of pregnancy in Taipei, Taiwan were interviewed periodically to collect dietary and lifestyle information. The participants had an average age of 30 years and the average gestational weight gain was 14 kg, with an average daily intake of 7830 kJ (1870 kcal) in the 1 year following parturition. By bivariate analyses, maternal age, pre-pregnancy BMI and breast-feeding were not related to postpartum weight retention, but gestational weight gain had significant positive correlations (r 0.54 at 6 months, r 0.44 at 1 year; P < 0.05). The generalised estimating equations showed that the average weight before pregnancy, at 6 months and 1 year postpartum was 53.35 kg, 55.75 kg (weight retention 2.36 kg; P < 0.01) and 54.75 kg (weight retention 1.48 kg; P < 0.01), respectively. After controlling for age, pre-pregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain and parity, we found at 6 months that the adjusted weight retention at postpartum was 0.79 kg (P < 0.01), but at 1 year it was - 0.08 kg (P>0.05). From multivariate analyses, dietary energy intake and energy intake per kg body weight as a long-term physical activity index could explain 24 % of the variation at 6 months and 27 % of the variation at 1 year in postpartum weight retention. These results suggest that pregnant women should be advised to control gestational weight gain, decrease energy intakes after child-bearing and maintain regular exercise in order to prevent postpartum obesity.

Modern Methods for Modeling Change in Obesity Research in Nursing.

PubMed

Sereika, Susan M; Zheng, Yaguang; Hu, Lu; Burke, Lora E

2017-08-01

Persons receiving treatment for weight loss often demonstrate heterogeneity in lifestyle behaviors and health outcomes over time. Traditional repeated measures approaches focus on the estimation and testing of an average temporal pattern, ignoring the interindividual variability about the trajectory. An alternate person-centered approach, group-based trajectory modeling, can be used to identify distinct latent classes of individuals following similar trajectories of behavior or outcome change as a function of age or time and can be expanded to include time-invariant and time-dependent covariates and outcomes. Another latent class method, growth mixture modeling, builds on group-based trajectory modeling to investigate heterogeneity within the distinct trajectory classes. In this applied methodologic study, group-based trajectory modeling for analyzing changes in behaviors or outcomes is described and contrasted with growth mixture modeling. An illustration of group-based trajectory modeling is provided using calorie intake data from a single-group, single-center prospective study for weight loss in adults who are either overweight or obese.

Impact analysis of two kinds of failure strategies in Beijing road transportation network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zundong; Xu, Xiaoyang; Zhang, Zhaoran; Zhou, Huijuan

The Beijing road transportation network (BRTN), as a large-scale technological network, exhibits very complex and complicate features during daily periods. And it has been widely highlighted that how statistical characteristics (i.e. average path length and global network efficiency) change while the network evolves. In this paper, by using different modeling concepts, three kinds of network models of BRTN namely the abstract network model, the static network model with road mileage as weights and the dynamic network model with travel time as weights — are constructed, respectively, according to the topological data and the real detected flow data. The degree distribution of the three kinds of network models are analyzed, which proves that the urban road infrastructure network and the dynamic network behavior like scale-free networks. By analyzing and comparing the important statistical characteristics of three models under random attacks and intentional attacks, it shows that the urban road infrastructure network and the dynamic network of BRTN are both robust and vulnerable.

Molecular weight of Escherichia coli β-galactosidase in concentrated solutions of guanidine hydrochloride

PubMed Central

Erickson, Robert P.

1970-01-01

The molecular weight of Escherichia coli β-galactosidase was determined in 6m- and 8m-guanidine hydrochloride by meniscus-depletion sedimentation equilibrium, sedimentation velocity and viscosity. Sedimentation equilibrium revealed heterogeneity with the smallest component having a molecular weight of about 50000. At lower speeds, the apparent weight-average molecular weight is about 80000. By use of a calculation based on an empirical correlation for proteins that are random coils in 6m-guanidine hydrochloride, sedimentation velocity gave a molecular weight of 91000, and the intrinsic viscosity indicated a viscosity-average molecular weight of 84000. Heating in 6m-guanidine hydrochloride lowered the viscosity of β-galactosidase in a variable manner. PMID:4924171

A method to quantify hand-transmitted vibration exposure based on the biodynamic stress concept.

PubMed

Dong, R G; Welcome, D E; Wu, J Z

2007-11-01

This study generally hypothesized that the vibration-induced biodynamic stress and number of its cycles in a substructure of the hand-arm system play an important role in the development of vibration-induced disorders in the substructure. As the first step to test this hypothesis, the specific aims of this study were to develop a practical method to quantify the biodynamic stress-cycle measure, to compare it with ISO-weighted and unweighted accelerations, and to assess its potential for applications. A mechanical-equivalent model of the system was established using reported experimental data. The model was used to estimate the average stresses in the fingers and palm. The frequency weightings of the stresses in these substructures were derived using the proposed stress-cycle measure. This study found the frequency dependence of the average stress distributed in the fingers is different from that in the palm. Therefore, this study predicted that the frequency dependencies of finger disorders could also be different from those of the disorders in the palm, wrist, and arms. If vibration-induced white finger (VWF) is correlated better with unweighted acceleration than with ISO-weighted acceleration, the biodynamic stress distributed in the fingers is likely to play a more important role in the development of VWF than is th e biodynamic stressdistributed in the other substructures of the hand-arm system. The results of this study also suggest that the ISO weighting underestimates the high-frequency effect on the finger disorder development but it may provide a reasonable risk assessment of the disorders in the wrist and arm.

12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Method to Derive Pricing Multipliers and Uniform Amount

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... explanatory variables (regressors) in the model are six financial ratios and a weighted average of the “C,” “A,” “M,” “E” and “L” component ratings. The six financial ratios included in the model are: • Tier 1... downgraded to 3 or worse within 3 to 12 months from time T. The risk measures are financial ratios as defined...

12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Method to Derive Pricing Multipliers and Uniform Amount

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... explanatory variables (regressors) in the model are six financial ratios and a weighted average of the “C,” “A,” “M,” “E” and “L” component ratings. The six financial ratios included in the model are: • Tier 1... downgraded to 3 or worse within 3 to 12 months from time T. The risk measures are financial ratios as defined...

12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Method to Derive Pricing Multipliers and Uniform Amount

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... explanatory variables (regressors) in the model are six financial ratios and a weighted average of the “C,” “A,” “M,” “E” and “L” component ratings. The six financial ratios included in the model are: • Tier 1... downgraded to 3 or worse within 3 to 12 months from time T. The risk measures are financial ratios as defined...

Increasing molecular weight parameters of a helical polymer through polymerization in a chiral solvent.

PubMed

Holder, Simon J; Achilleos, Mariliz; Jones, Richard G

2006-09-27

In this communication, we will demonstrate that polymerization in a chiral solvent can affect the molecular weight distribution of the product by perturbing the balance of the P and M helical screw senses of the growing chains. Specifically, for the Wurtz-type synthesis of polymethylphenylsilane (PMPS) in either (R) or (S)-limonene, the weight-average molecular weight of the products (average Mw = 80 000) was twice that of PMPS synthesized in (R/S)-limonene (average Mw = 39 200). Peturbation of the helical segmentation along the polymer chains leads to a reduction in the rate of occurrence of a key termination step. This the first time that a chiral solvent has been demonstrated to have such an effect on a polymerization process in affecting molecular weight parameters in contrast to affecting tacticity.

A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. 2; Aggregation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schamschula, Marius; Crosson, William L.; Inguva, Ramarao; Yates, Thomas; Laymen, Charles A.; Caulfield, John

1998-01-01

This is a follow up on the preceding presentation by Crosson. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to aggregate the hydrological model outputs for soil moisture to allow comparison with measurements. Weighted neighborhood averaging methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. We will also discuss such complications as misalignment, rotation and other distortions introduced by a generalized sensor image.

Performance of correlation receivers in the presence of impulse noise.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, J. D.; Houts, R. C.

1972-01-01

An impulse noise model, which assumes that each noise burst contains a randomly weighted version of a basic waveform, is used to derive the performance equations for a correlation receiver. The expected number of bit errors per noise burst is expressed as a function of the average signal energy, signal-set correlation coefficient, bit time, noise-weighting-factor variance and probability density function, and a time range function which depends on the crosscorrelation of the signal-set basis functions and the noise waveform. Unlike the performance results for additive white Gaussian noise, it is shown that the error performance for impulse noise is affected by the choice of signal-set basis function, and that Orthogonal signaling is not equivalent to On-Off signaling with the same average energy. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the correlation-receiver error performance can be improved by inserting a properly specified nonlinear device prior to the receiver input.

Robustness of cluster synchronous patterns in small-world networks with inter-cluster co-competition balance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jianbao; Ma, Zhongjun, E-mail: mzj1234402@163.com; Chen, Guanrong

All edges in the classical Watts and Strogatz's small-world network model are unweighted and cooperative (positive). By introducing competitive (negative) inter-cluster edges and assigning edge weights to mimic more realistic networks, this paper develops a modified model which possesses co-competitive weighted couplings and cluster structures while maintaining the common small-world network properties of small average shortest path lengths and large clustering coefficients. Based on theoretical analysis, it is proved that the new model with inter-cluster co-competition balance has an important dynamical property of robust cluster synchronous pattern formation. More precisely, clusters will neither merge nor split regardless of adding ormore » deleting nodes and edges, under the condition of inter-cluster co-competition balance. Numerical simulations demonstrate the robustness of the model against the increase of the coupling strength and several topological variations.« less

Robustness of cluster synchronous patterns in small-world networks with inter-cluster co-competition balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianbao; Ma, Zhongjun; Chen, Guanrong

2014-06-01

All edges in the classical Watts and Strogatz's small-world network model are unweighted and cooperative (positive). By introducing competitive (negative) inter-cluster edges and assigning edge weights to mimic more realistic networks, this paper develops a modified model which possesses co-competitive weighted couplings and cluster structures while maintaining the common small-world network properties of small average shortest path lengths and large clustering coefficients. Based on theoretical analysis, it is proved that the new model with inter-cluster co-competition balance has an important dynamical property of robust cluster synchronous pattern formation. More precisely, clusters will neither merge nor split regardless of adding or deleting nodes and edges, under the condition of inter-cluster co-competition balance. Numerical simulations demonstrate the robustness of the model against the increase of the coupling strength and several topological variations.

An Efficient Monte Carlo Method for Modeling Radiative Transfer in Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Stacy

2011-01-01

Monte Carlo methods have been shown to be effective and versatile in modeling radiative transfer processes to calculate model temperature profiles for protoplanetary disks. Temperatures profiles are important for connecting physical structure to observation and for understanding the conditions for planet formation and migration. However, certain areas of the disk such as the optically thick disk interior are under-sampled, or are of particular interest such as the snow line (where water vapor condenses into ice) and the area surrounding a protoplanet. To improve the sampling, photon packets can be preferentially scattered and reemitted toward the preferred locations at the cost of weighting packet energies to conserve the average energy flux. Here I report on the weighting schemes developed, how they can be applied to various models, and how they affect simulation mechanics and results. We find that improvements in sampling do not always imply similar improvements in temperature accuracies and calculation speeds.

[Weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination of water environmental sensitive spots in Jiashan].

PubMed

Xie, Rong-Rong; Pang, Yong; Zhang, Qian; Chen, Ke; Sun, Ming-Yuan

2012-07-01

For the safety of the water environment in Jiashan county in Zhejiang Province, one-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality models are established based on three large-scale monitoring of hydrology and water quality in Jiashan county, three water environmental sensitive spots including Hongqitang dam Chijia hydrological station and Luxie pond are selected to investigate weight parameters of water quality impact and risk grade determination. Results indicate as follows (1) Internal pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than the external, the average weight parameters of internal chemical oxygen demand (COD) pollution is 55.3%, internal ammonia nitrogen (NH(4+)-N) is 67.4%, internal total phosphor (TP) is 63.1%. Non-point pollution impact in Jiashan areas was greater than point pollution impact, the average weight parameters of non-point COD pollutions is 53.7%, non-point NH(4+)-N is 65.9%, non-point TP is 57.8%. (2) The risk of Hongqitang dam and Chijia hydrological station are in the middle risk. The risk of Luxie pond is also in the middle risk in August, and in April and December the risk of Luxie pond is low. The strategic decision will be suggested to guarantee water environment security and social and economic security in the study.

Determination of the absolute molecular weight averages and molecular weight distributions of alginates used as ice cream stabilizers by using multiangle laser light scattering measurements.

PubMed

Turquois, T; Gloria, H

2000-11-01

High-performance size exclusion chromatography with multiangle laser light scattering detection (HPSEC-MALLS) was used for characterizing complete molecular weight distributions for a range of commercial alginates used as ice cream stabilizers. For the samples investigated, molecular weight averages were found to vary between 115 000 and 321 700 g/mol and polydispersity indexes varied from 1. 53 to 3.25. These samples displayed a high content of low molecular weights. Thus, the weight percentage of material below 100 000 g/mol ranged between 6.9 and 54.4%.

Genetic analyses of partial egg production in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression models.

PubMed

Karami, K; Zerehdaran, S; Barzanooni, B; Lotfi, E

2017-12-01

1. The aim of the present study was to estimate genetic parameters for average egg weight (EW) and egg number (EN) at different ages in Japanese quail using multi-trait random regression (MTRR) models. 2. A total of 8534 records from 900 quail, hatched between 2014 and 2015, were used in the study. Average weekly egg weights and egg numbers were measured from second until sixth week of egg production. 3. Nine random regression models were compared to identify the best order of the Legendre polynomials (LP). The most optimal model was identified by the Bayesian Information Criterion. A model with second order of LP for fixed effects, second order of LP for additive genetic effects and third order of LP for permanent environmental effects (MTRR23) was found to be the best. 4. According to the MTRR23 model, direct heritability for EW increased from 0.26 in the second week to 0.53 in the sixth week of egg production, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.48 to 0.1. Direct heritability for EN was low, whereas the ratio of permanent environment to phenotypic variance decreased from 0.57 to 0.15 during the production period. 5. For each trait, estimated genetic correlations among weeks of egg production were high (from 0.85 to 0.98). Genetic correlations between EW and EN were low and negative for the first two weeks, but they were low and positive for the rest of the egg production period. 6. In conclusion, random regression models can be used effectively for analysing egg production traits in Japanese quail. Response to selection for increased egg weight would be higher at older ages because of its higher heritability and such a breeding program would have no negative genetic impact on egg production.

Weight outcomes audit for 34,271 adults referred to a primary care/commercial weight management partnership scheme.

PubMed

Stubbs, R James; Pallister, Carolyn; Whybrow, Stephen; Avery, Amanda; Lavin, Jacquie

2011-01-01

This project audited rate and extent of weight loss in a primary care/commercial weight management organisation partnership scheme. 34,271 patients were referred to Slimming World for 12 weekly sessions. Data were analysed using individual weekly weight records. Average (SD) BMI change was -1.5 kg/m² (1.3), weight change -4.0 kg (3.7), percent weight change -4.0% (3.6), rate of weight change -0.3 kg/week, and number of sessions attended 8.9 (3.6) of 12. For patients attending at least 10 of 12 sessions (n = 19,907 or 58.1%), average (SD) BMI change was -2.0 kg/m² (1.3), weight change -5.5 kg (3.8), percent weight change -5.5% (3.5), rate of weight change -0.4 kg/week, and average number of sessions attended was 11.5 (0.7) (p < 0.001, compared to all patients). Weight loss was greater in men (n = 3,651) than in women (n = 30,620) (p < 0.001). 35.8% of all patients enrolled and 54.7% in patients attending 10 or more sessions achieved at least 5% weight loss. Weight gain was prevented in 92.1% of all patients referred. Attendance explained 29.6% and percent weight lost in week 1 explained 18.4% of the variance in weight loss. Referral to a commercial organisation is a practical option for National Health Service (NHS) weight management strategies, which achieves clinically safe and effective weight loss. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A new class of weight and WA systems of the Kravchenko-Kaiser functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravchenko, V. F.; Pustovoit, V. I.; Churikov, D. V.

2014-05-01

A new class of weight and WA-systems of the Kravchenko-Kaiser functions which showed its efficiency in various physical applications is proposed and substantiated. This publication consists of three parts. In the first the Kravchenko-Kaiser weight functions are constructed on basis of the theory of atomic functions (AFs) and the Kaiser windows for the first time. In the second part new constructions of analytic WA-systems of the Kravchenko-Kaiser functions are costructed. In the third part their applications to problems of weight averaging of the difference frequency signals are considered. The numerical experiment and the physical analysis of the results for concrete physical models confirmed their efficiency. This class of functions can find wide physical applications in problems of digital signal processing, restoration of images, radar, radiometry, radio astronomy, remote sensing, etc.

Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali; Applegate, Patrick; DeConto, Robert

2016-05-01

A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ˜ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds.

Money Earlier or Later? Simple Heuristics Explain Intertemporal Choices Better than Delay Discounting1

PubMed Central

Marzilli Ericson, Keith M.; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2015-01-01

Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative (percentage) differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We conclude that heuristic models explain time-money tradeoff choices in experiments better than utility discounting models. PMID:25911124

From modulated Hebbian plasticity to simple behavior learning through noise and weight saturation.

PubMed

Soltoggio, Andrea; Stanley, Kenneth O

2012-10-01

Synaptic plasticity is a major mechanism for adaptation, learning, and memory. Yet current models struggle to link local synaptic changes to the acquisition of behaviors. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate a computational relationship between local Hebbian plasticity and behavior learning by exploiting two traditionally unwanted features: neural noise and synaptic weight saturation. A modulation signal is employed to arbitrate the sign of plasticity: when the modulation is positive, the synaptic weights saturate to express exploitative behavior; when it is negative, the weights converge to average values, and neural noise reconfigures the network's functionality. This process is demonstrated through simulating neural dynamics in the autonomous emergence of fearful and aggressive navigating behaviors and in the solution to reward-based problems. The neural model learns, memorizes, and modifies different behaviors that lead to positive modulation in a variety of settings. The algorithm establishes a simple relationship between local plasticity and behavior learning by demonstrating the utility of noise and weight saturation. Moreover, it provides a new tool to simulate adaptive behavior, and contributes to bridging the gap between synaptic changes and behavior in neural computation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship Between Intuitive Eating and Postpartum Weight Loss.

PubMed

Leahy, Katie; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Banks, Gabrielle G; Bachman, Jessica

2017-08-01

Objective Postpartum weight loss is challenging for new mothers who report limited time and difficulties following traditional weight loss methods. Intuitive eating (IE) is a behavior that includes eating based on physical hunger and fullness and may have a role in encouraging weight loss. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between IE and postpartum weight loss. Methods Women 12-18 months postpartum completed a questionnaire regarding weight changes surrounding pregnancy, exercise, breastfeeding and intuitive eating using the Intuitive Eating Scale. Latent growth curve modeling was utilized to determine the relationship between IE, breastfeeding, weight gain during pregnancy, and postpartum weight trajectories. Results Participants (n = 50) were 28.5 ± 4.9 years old, had an average pre-pregnancy BMI of 26.4 ± 6.8 and the majority were married, and non-Hispanic white. The conditional model revealed that more intuitive eating practices predicted greater postpartum BMI decreases (Est. = -0.10, p < .05) when controlling for breastfeeding duration, exercise duration, and initial BMI and pregnancy BMI changes. Greater pregnancy BMI increases were associated with more rapid postpartum BMI decreases (Est. = -0.34, p < .001) while breastfeeding duration, exercise and initial BMI were not related. Conclusions for Practice Postpartum weight retention is a challenge for many women. Following a more intuitive eating approach to food consumption may encourage postpartum weight loss without the required weighing, measuring, recording and assessing dietary intake that is required of traditional weight loss programs. IE could offer an alternative approach that may be less arduous for new mothers.

Evolution of a plastic quantitative trait in an age-structured population in a fluctuating environment.

PubMed

Engen, Steinar; Lande, Russell; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

We analyze weak fluctuating selection on a quantitative character in an age-structured population not subject to density regulation. We assume that early in the first year of life before selection, during a critical state of development, environments exert a plastic effect on the phenotype, which remains constant throughout the life of an individual. Age-specific selection on the character affects survival and fecundity, which have intermediate optima subject to temporal environmental fluctuations with directional selection in some age classes as special cases. Weighting individuals by their reproductive value, as suggested by Fisher, we show that the expected response per year in the weighted mean character has the same form as for models with no age structure. Environmental stochasticity generates stochastic fluctuations in the weighted mean character following a first-order autoregressive model with a temporally autocorrelated noise term and stationary variance depending on the amount of phenotypic plasticity. The parameters of the process are simple weighted averages of parameters used to describe age-specific survival and fecundity. The "age-specific selective weights" are related to the stable distribution of reproductive values among age classes. This allows partitioning of the change in the weighted mean character into age-specific components. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom P.

This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses inmore » these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.« less

Growth curves of carcass traits obtained by ultrasonography in three lines of Nellore cattle selected for body weight.

PubMed

Coutinho, C C; Mercadante, M E Z; Jorge, A M; Paz, C C P; El Faro, L; Monteiro, F M

2015-10-30

The effect of selection for postweaning weight was evaluated within the growth curve parameters for both growth and carcass traits. Records of 2404 Nellore animals from three selection lines were analyzed: two selection lines for high postweaning weight, selection (NeS) and traditional (NeT); and a control line (NeC) in which animals were selected for postweaning weight close to the average. Body weight (BW), hip height (HH), rib eye area (REA), back fat thickness (BFT), and rump fat thickness (RFT) were measured and records collected from animals 8 to 20 (males) and 11 to 26 (females) months of age. The parameters A (asymptotic value) and k (growth rate) were estimated using the nonlinear model procedure of the Statistical Analysis System program, which included fixed effect of line (NeS, NeT, and NeC) in the model, with the objective to evaluate differences in the estimated parameters between lines. Selected animals (NeS and NeT) showed higher growth rates than control line animals (NeC) for all traits. Line effect on curves parameters was significant (P < 0.001) for BW, HH, and REA in males, and for BFT and RFT in females. Selection for postweaning weight was effective in altering growth curves, resulting in animals with higher growth potential.

Resolution and contrast in Kelvin probe force microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, H. O.; Leuchtmann, P.; Homan, O. J.; Stemmer, A.

1998-08-01

The combination of atomic force microscopy and Kelvin probe technology is a powerful tool to obtain high-resolution maps of the surface potential distribution on conducting and nonconducting samples. However, resolution and contrast transfer of this method have not been fully understood, so far. To obtain a better quantitative understanding, we introduce a model which correlates the measured potential with the actual surface potential distribution, and we compare numerical simulations of the three-dimensional tip-specimen model with experimental data from test structures. The observed potential is a locally weighted average over all potentials present on the sample surface. The model allows us to calculate these weighting factors and, furthermore, leads to the conclusion that good resolution in potential maps is obtained by long and slender but slightly blunt tips on cantilevers of minimal width and surface area.

Retrofit Weight-Loss Outcomes at 6, 12, and 24 Months and Characteristics of 12-Month High Performers: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Painter, Stefanie; Ditsch, Gary; Ahmed, Rezwan; Hanson, Nicholas Buck; Kachin, Kevin; Berger, Jan

2016-08-22

Obesity is the leading cause of preventable death costing the health care system billions of dollars. Combining self-monitoring technology with personalized behavior change strategies results in clinically significant weight loss. However, there is a lack of real-world outcomes in commercial weight-loss program research. Retrofit is a personalized weight management and disease-prevention solution. This study aimed to report Retrofit's weight-loss outcomes at 6, 12, and 24 months and characterize behaviors, age, and sex of high-performing participants who achieved weight loss of 10% or greater at 12 months. A retrospective analysis was performed from 2011 to 2014 using 2720 participants enrolled in a Retrofit weight-loss program. Participants had a starting body mass index (BMI) of >25 kg/m² and were at least 18 years of age. Weight measurements were assessed at 6, 12, and 24 months in the program to evaluate change in body weight, BMI, and percentage of participants who achieved 5% or greater weight loss. A secondary analysis characterized high-performing participants who lost ≥10% of their starting weight (n=238). Characterized behaviors were evaluated, including self-monitoring through weigh-ins, number of days wearing an activity tracker, daily step count average, and engagement through coaching conversations via Web-based messages, and number of coaching sessions attended. Average weight loss at 6 months was -5.55% for male and -4.86% for female participants. Male and female participants had an average weight loss of -6.28% and -5.37% at 12 months, respectively. Average weight loss at 24 months was -5.03% and -3.15% for males and females, respectively. Behaviors of high-performing participants were assessed at 12 months. Number of weigh-ins were greater in high-performing male (197.3 times vs 165.4 times, P=.001) and female participants (222 times vs 167 times, P<.001) compared with remaining participants. Total activity tracker days and average steps per day were greater in high-performing females (304.7 vs 266.6 days, P<.001; 8380.9 vs 7059.7 steps, P<.001, respectively) and males (297.1 vs 255.3 days, P<.001; 9099.3 vs 8251.4 steps, P=.008, respectively). High-performing female participants had significantly more coaching conversations via Web-based messages than remaining female participants (341.4 vs 301.1, P=.03), as well as more days with at least one such electronic message (118 vs 108 days, P=.03). High-performing male participants displayed similar behavior. Participants on the Retrofit program lost an average of -5.21% at 6 months, -5.83% at 12 months, and -4.09% at 24 months. High-performing participants show greater adherence to self-monitoring behaviors of weighing in, number of days wearing an activity tracker, and average number of steps per day. Female high performers have higher coaching engagement through conversation days and total number of coaching conversations.

On the progressive enrichment of the oxygen isotopic composition of water along a leaf.

PubMed

Farquhar, G. D.; Gan, K. S.

2003-06-01

A model has been derived for the enrichment of heavy isotopes of water in leaves, including progressive enrichment along the leaf. In the model, lighter water is preferentially transpired leaving heavier water to diffuse back into the xylem and be carried further along the leaf. For this pattern to be pronounced, the ratio of advection to diffusion (Péclet number) has to be large in the longitudinal direction, and small in the radial direction. The progressive enrichment along the xylem is less than that occurring at the sites of evaporation in the mesophyll, depending on the isolation afforded by the radial Péclet number. There is an upper bound on enrichment, and effects of ground tissue associated with major veins are included. When transpiration rate is spatially nonuniform, averaging of enrichment occurs more naturally with transpiration weighting than with area-based weighting. This gives zero average enrichment of transpired water, the modified Craig-Gordon equation for average enrichment at the sites of evaporation and the Farquhar and Lloyd (In Stable Isotopes and Plant Carbon-Water Relations, pp. 47-70. Academic Press, New York, USA, 1993) prediction for mesophyll water. Earlier results on the isotopic composition of evolved oxygen and of retro-diffused carbon dioxide are preserved if these processes vary in parallel with transpiration rate. Parallel variation should be indicated approximately by uniform carbon isotope discrimination across the leaf.

Neighborhood Built and Social Environments and Change in Weight Status over the Summer in Low-Income Elementary School Children.

PubMed

Miles, Rebecca; Wang, Yuxia; Johnson, Suzanne Bennett

2018-05-31

Neighborhoods can provide opportunities for children to maintain a healthy weight or encourage unhealthy weight gain. Which neighborhood characteristics matter most remains poorly understood. We investigated links between neighborhood characteristics and weight change over the summer in children from 12 elementary schools with a high proportion of children from low-income families, in a mid-sized city in the US South. Mixed models and objective measures of height and weight were used. Study participants were 2770 children (average age 8.3, range 5.6⁻12.6 years). Older and female children and those who were already overweight were more likely to gain weight over the summer compared to younger, male, and normal weight children. Overweight children who lived near 2 or more small grocery stores gained less weight than overweight children who lived near 0 (weight change, p = 0.0468; body mass index (BMI) change, p = 0.0209) or 1 store (weight change, p = 0.0136; BMI change, p = 0.0033). Normal weight children living in neighborhoods with more large multifamily buildings gained more weight over the summer, although this association only approached significance. Additional efforts to understand which neighborhood factors have greater significance for overweight compared to normal weight children are warranted.

Money earlier or later? Simple heuristics explain intertemporal choices better than delay discounting does.

PubMed

Ericson, Keith M Marzilli; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D

2015-06-01

Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains involving choice. We conducted an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of heuristic models of intertemporal choice (which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies) and discounting models. Heuristic models outperformed traditional utility-discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best-performing models predicted choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative percentage differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We concluded that heuristic models explain time-money trade-off choices in experiments better than do utility-discounting models. © The Author(s) 2015.

School- and Individual-level Predictors of Weight Status Misperception among Korean Adolescents: A National Online Survey.

PubMed

Kim, Yongjoo; Kawachi, Ichiro

2016-01-01

Growing body of literature has reported that weight status estimation pattern, including accurate-, under-, and overestimation, was associated with weight related behaviors and weight change among adolescents and young adults. However, there have been a few studies investigating the potential role of school contexts in shaping adolescents' weight status estimation pattern among Korea adolescents. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between weight status misperception patterns and factors at individual-, family-, and school-level, simultaneously, and whether there was significant between schools variation in the distribution of each weight status misperception pattern, underestimation and overestimation respectively, among Korean adolescents aged 12-18 years. Data from the Eighth Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBS), 2012, a nationally representative online survey of 72,228 students (boys = 37,229, girls = 34,999) from a total of 797 middle and high schools were used. Sex stratified multilevel random intercept multinomial logistic models where adolescents (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2) were performed. At the school level, attending a school with higher average BMI (kg/m2) was positively associated with weight status underestimation, and inversely associated with weight status overestimation among boys and girls. Single-sex schooling was positively associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At the family level, higher household income (high/middle versus low) was inversely associated with both weight status under- and overestimation among boys and girls. Higher maternal education (equal to or more than college graduate versus equal to or less than high school graduate) was positively associated with weight status overestimation among boys, and living with both parents (compared to not living with both parents) was inversely associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At the individual level, high academic achievement (compared to low) was positively associated with weight status underestimation among boys and girls. While further research with prospective designs and objectively measured anthropometric information is needed, school environmental factors such as sex composition and school average BMI, as well as, family contexts such as socioeconomic status need to be considered when developing and implementing obesity prevention programs.

School- and Individual-level Predictors of Weight Status Misperception among Korean Adolescents: A National Online Survey

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Growing body of literature has reported that weight status estimation pattern, including accurate-, under-, and overestimation, was associated with weight related behaviors and weight change among adolescents and young adults. However, there have been a few studies investigating the potential role of school contexts in shaping adolescents’ weight status estimation pattern among Korea adolescents. Objective The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between weight status misperception patterns and factors at individual-, family-, and school-level, simultaneously, and whether there was significant between schools variation in the distribution of each weight status misperception pattern, underestimation and overestimation respectively, among Korean adolescents aged 12–18 years. Method Data from the Eighth Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBS), 2012, a nationally representative online survey of 72,228 students (boys = 37,229, girls = 34,999) from a total of 797 middle and high schools were used. Sex stratified multilevel random intercept multinomial logistic models where adolescents (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2) were performed. Results At the school level, attending a school with higher average BMI (kg/m2) was positively associated with weight status underestimation, and inversely associated with weight status overestimation among boys and girls. Single-sex schooling was positively associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At the family level, higher household income (high/middle versus low) was inversely associated with both weight status under- and overestimation among boys and girls. Higher maternal education (equal to or more than college graduate versus equal to or less than high school graduate) was positively associated with weight status overestimation among boys, and living with both parents (compared to not living with both parents) was inversely associated with weight status underestimation among girls. At the individual level, high academic achievement (compared to low) was positively associated with weight status underestimation among boys and girls. Conclusions While further research with prospective designs and objectively measured anthropometric information is needed, school environmental factors such as sex composition and school average BMI, as well as, family contexts such as socioeconomic status need to be considered when developing and implementing obesity prevention programs. PMID:27144319

Weighting by Inverse Variance or by Sample Size in Random-Effects Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marin-Martinez, Fulgencio; Sanchez-Meca, Julio

2010-01-01

Most of the statistical procedures in meta-analysis are based on the estimation of average effect sizes from a set of primary studies. The optimal weight for averaging a set of independent effect sizes is the inverse variance of each effect size, but in practice these weights have to be estimated, being affected by sampling error. When assuming a…

Communications circuit including a linear quadratic estimator

DOEpatents

Ferguson, Dennis D.

2015-07-07

A circuit includes a linear quadratic estimator (LQE) configured to receive a plurality of measurements a signal. The LQE is configured to weight the measurements based on their respective uncertainties to produce weighted averages. The circuit further includes a controller coupled to the LQE and configured to selectively adjust at least one data link parameter associated with a communication channel in response to receiving the weighted averages.

Dark matter in NGC 4472

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loewenstein, Michael

1992-01-01

An attempt is made to constrain the total mass distribution of the giant elliptical galaxy NGC 4472 by constructing simultaneous equilibrium models for the gas and stars. Emphasis is given to reconciling the value of the emission-weighted average value of kT derived from the Ginga spectrum with the amount of dark matter needed to account for velocity dispersion observations.

Pseudo Bayes Estimates for Test Score Distributions and Chained Equipercentile Equating. Research Report. ETS RR-09-47

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim; Oh, Hyeonjoo J.

2009-01-01

Pseudo Bayes probability estimates are weighted averages of raw and modeled probabilities; these estimates have been studied primarily in nonpsychometric contexts. The purpose of this study was to evaluate pseudo Bayes probability estimates as applied to the estimation of psychometric test score distributions and chained equipercentile equating…

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

40 CFR 61.356 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration, and annual benzene quantity. (2) For each waste... measurements, calculations, and other documentation used to determine that the continuous flow of process... benzene concentrations in the waste, the annual average flow-weighted benzene concentration of the waste...

Developmental and hematological responses to low level continuous exposure of nitrogen dioxide in mice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, J.

1977-01-01

Young healthy mice were continuously exposed to 0ppm, 0.5ppm, 1.0ppm and 5ppm nitrogen dioxide gas for eight weeks. Nitrogen dioxide exposure for eight weeks decreased the average weight of mice, increased the average weight of lungs, heart, and brain and decreased the average weight of liver. Nitrogen dioxide exposure did not have any effects on the WBC and RBC in mice blood but it increased the HCT and HGB in mice blood. Nitrogen dioxide exposure increased the MCV and decreased the MCH and MCHC in mice blood.

Complex messages regarding a thin ideal appearing in teenage girls' magazines from 1956 to 2005.

PubMed

Luff, Gina M; Gray, James J

2009-03-01

Seventeen and YM were assessed from 1956 through 2005 (n=312) to examine changes in the messages about thinness sent to teenage women. Trends were analyzed through an investigation of written, internal content focused on dieting, exercise, or both, while cover models were examined to explore fluctuations in body size. Pearson's Product correlations and weighted-least squares linear regression models were used to demonstrate changes over time. The frequency of written content related to exercise and combined plans increased in Seventeen, while a curvilinear relationship between time and content relating to dieting appeared. YM showed a linear increase in content related to dieting, exercise, and combined plans. Average cover model body size increased over time in YM while demonstrating no significant changes in Seventeen. Overall, more written messages about dieting and exercise appeared in teen's magazines in 2005 than before while the average cover model body size increased.

Factors that affect molecular weight distribution of Suwannee river fulvic acid as determined by electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rostad, C.E.; Leenheer, J.A.

2004-01-01

Effects of methylation, molar response, multiple charging, solvents, and positive and negative ionization on molecular weight distributions of aquatic fulvic acid were investigated by electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry. After preliminary analysis by positive and negative modes, samples and mixtures of standards were derivatized by methylation to minimize ionization sites and reanalyzed.Positive ionization was less effective and produced more complex spectra than negative ionization. Ionization in methanol/water produced greater response than in acetonitrile/water. Molar response varied widely for the selected free acid standards when analyzed individually and in a mixture, but after methylation this range decreased. After methylation, the number average molecular weight of the Suwannee River fulvic acid remained the same while the weight average molecular weight decreased. These differences are probably indicative of disaggregation of large aggregated ions during methylation. Since the weight average molecular weight decreased, it is likely that aggregate formation in the fulvic acid was present prior to derivatization, rather than multiple charging in the mass spectra. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vertical Photon Transport in Cloud Remote Sensing Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platnick, S.

1999-01-01

Photon transport in plane-parallel, vertically inhomogeneous clouds is investigated and applied to cloud remote sensing techniques that use solar reflectance or transmittance measurements for retrieving droplet effective radius. Transport is couched in terms of weighting functions which approximate the relative contribution of individual layers to the overall retrieval. Two vertical weightings are investigated, including one based on the average number of scatterings encountered by reflected and transmitted photons in any given layer. A simpler vertical weighting based on the maximum penetration of reflected photons proves useful for solar reflectance measurements. These weighting functions are highly dependent on droplet absorption and solar/viewing geometry. A superposition technique, using adding/doubling radiative transfer procedures, is derived to accurately determine both weightings, avoiding time consuming Monte Carlo methods. Superposition calculations are made for a variety of geometries and cloud models, and selected results are compared with Monte Carlo calculations. Effective radius retrievals from modeled vertically inhomogeneous liquid water clouds are then made using the standard near-infrared bands, and compared with size estimates based on the proposed weighting functions. Agreement between the two methods is generally within several tenths of a micrometer, much better than expected retrieval accuracy. Though the emphasis is on photon transport in clouds, the derived weightings can be applied to any multiple scattering plane-parallel radiative transfer problem, including arbitrary combinations of cloud, aerosol, and gas layers.

Measuring weight outcomes for obesity intervention strategies: the case of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax.

PubMed

Lin, Biing-Hwan; Smith, Travis A; Lee, Jonq-Ying; Hall, Kevin D

2011-12-01

Taxing unhealthy foods has been proposed as a means to improve diet and health by reducing calorie intake and raising funds to combat obesity, particularly sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). A growing number of studies have examined the effects of such food taxes, but few have estimated the weight-loss effects. Typically, a static model of 3500 calories for one pound of body weight is used, and the main objective of the study is to demonstrate its bias. To accomplish the objective, we estimate income-segmented beverage demand systems to examine the potential effects of a SSB tax. Elasticity estimates and a hypothetical 20 percent effective tax rate (or about 0.5 cent per ounce) are applied to beverage intake data from a nationally representative survey, and we find an average daily reduction of 34-47 calories among adults and 40-51 calories among children. The tax-induced energy reductions are translated into weight loss using both static and dynamic calorie-to-weight models. Results demonstrate that the static model significantly overestimates the weight loss from reduced energy intake by 63 percent in year one, 346 percent in year five, and 764 percent in year 10, which leads to unrealistic expectations for obesity intervention strategies. The tax is estimated to generate $5.8 billion a year in revenue and is found to be regressive, although it represents about 1 percent of household food and beverage spending. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Longitudinal Pulmonary Function in Newly Hired, Non-World Trade Center-Exposed Fire Department City of New York Firefighters

PubMed Central

Ye, Fen; Hall, Charles B.; Webber, Mayris P.; Cohen, Hillel W.; Dinkels, Michael; Cosenza, Kaitlyn; Weiden, Michael D.; Nolan, Anna; Christodoulou, Vasilios; Kelly, Kerry J.; Prezant, David J.

2013-01-01

Background: Few longitudinal studies characterize firefighters’ pulmonary function. We sought to determine whether firefighters have excessive FEV1 decline rates compared with control subjects. Methods: We examined serial measurements of FEV1 from about 6 months prehire to about 5 years posthire in newly hired male, never smoking, non-Hispanic black and white firefighters, hired between 2003 and 2006, without prior respiratory disease or World Trade Center exposure. Similarly defined Emergency Medical Service (EMS) workers served as control subjects. Results: Through June 30, 2011, 940 firefighters (82%) and 97 EMS workers (72%) who met study criteria had four or more acceptable posthire spirometries. Prehire FEV1% averaged higher for firefighters than EMS workers (99% vs 95%), reflecting more stringent job entry criteria. FEV1 (adjusted for baseline age and height) declined by an average of 45 mL/y both for firefighters and EMS workers, with Fire − EMS decline rate differences averaging 0.2 mL/y (CI, −9.2 to 9.6). Four percent of each group had FEV1 less than the lower limit of normal before hire, increasing to 7% for firefighters and 17.5% for EMS workers, but similar percentages of both groups had adjusted FEV1 decline rates ≥ 10%. Mixed effects modeling showed a significant influence of weight gain but not baseline weight: FEV1 declined by about 8 mL/kg gained for both groups. Adjusting for weight change, FEV1 decline averaged 38 mL/y for firefighters and 34 mL/y for EMS workers. Conclusions: During the first 5 years of duty, firefighters do not show greater longitudinal FEV1 decline than EMS control subjects, and fewer of them develop abnormal lung function. Weight gain is associated with a small loss of lung function, of questionable clinical relevance in this fit and active population. PMID:23188136

DIDA - Dynamic Image Disparity Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-31

register the image only where the disparity estimates are believed to be correct. Therefore, in our 60 implementation we register in proportion to the...average motion is computed as a the average of neighbors motions weighted by their confidence. Since estimates contribute oniy in proportion to their...confidence statistics in the same proportion as they contribute to the average disparity estimate. Two confidences are derived from the weighted

Evaluating experimental design for soil-plant model selection using a Bootstrap Filter and Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wöhling, T.; Schöniger, A.; Geiges, A.; Nowak, W.; Gayler, S.

2013-12-01

The objective selection of appropriate models for realistic simulations of coupled soil-plant processes is a challenging task since the processes are complex, not fully understood at larger scales, and highly non-linear. Also, comprehensive data sets are scarce, and measurements are uncertain. In the past decades, a variety of different models have been developed that exhibit a wide range of complexity regarding their approximation of processes in the coupled model compartments. We present a method for evaluating experimental design for maximum confidence in the model selection task. The method considers uncertainty in parameters, measurements and model structures. Advancing the ideas behind Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), we analyze the changes in posterior model weights and posterior model choice uncertainty when more data are made available. This allows assessing the power of different data types, data densities and data locations in identifying the best model structure from among a suite of plausible models. The models considered in this study are the crop models CERES, SUCROS, GECROS and SPASS, which are coupled to identical routines for simulating soil processes within the modelling framework Expert-N. The four models considerably differ in the degree of detail at which crop growth and root water uptake are represented. Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted for each of these models considering their uncertainty in soil hydraulic properties and selected crop model parameters. Using a Bootstrap Filter (BF), the models were then conditioned on field measurements of soil moisture, matric potential, leaf-area index, and evapotranspiration rates (from eddy-covariance measurements) during a vegetation period of winter wheat at a field site at the Swabian Alb in Southwestern Germany. Following our new method, we derived model weights when using all data or different subsets thereof. We discuss to which degree the posterior mean outperforms the prior mean and all individual posterior models, how informative the data types were for reducing prediction uncertainty of evapotranspiration and deep drainage, and how well the model structure can be identified based on the different data types and subsets. We further analyze the impact of measurement uncertainty und systematic model errors on the effective sample size of the BF and the resulting model weights.

Natural Selection on Individual Variation in Tolerance of Gastrointestinal Nematode Infection

PubMed Central

Hayward, Adam D.; Nussey, Daniel H.; Wilson, Alastair J.; Berenos, Camillo; Pilkington, Jill G.; Watt, Kathryn A.; Pemberton, Josephine M.; Graham, Andrea L.

2014-01-01

Hosts may mitigate the impact of parasites by two broad strategies: resistance, which limits parasite burden, and tolerance, which limits the fitness or health cost of increasing parasite burden. The degree and causes of variation in both resistance and tolerance are expected to influence host–parasite evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics and inform disease management, yet very little empirical work has addressed tolerance in wild vertebrates. Here, we applied random regression models to longitudinal data from an unmanaged population of Soay sheep to estimate individual tolerance, defined as the rate of decline in body weight with increasing burden of highly prevalent gastrointestinal nematode parasites. On average, individuals lost weight as parasite burden increased, but whereas some lost weight slowly as burden increased (exhibiting high tolerance), other individuals lost weight significantly more rapidly (exhibiting low tolerance). We then investigated associations between tolerance and fitness using selection gradients that accounted for selection on correlated traits, including body weight. We found evidence for positive phenotypic selection on tolerance: on average, individuals who lost weight more slowly with increasing parasite burden had higher lifetime breeding success. This variation did not have an additive genetic basis. These results reveal that selection on tolerance operates under natural conditions. They also support theoretical predictions for the erosion of additive genetic variance of traits under strong directional selection and fixation of genes conferring tolerance. Our findings provide the first evidence of selection on individual tolerance of infection in animals and suggest practical applications in animal and human disease management in the face of highly prevalent parasites. PMID:25072883

Association of increased monetary cost of dietary intake, diet quality and weight management in Spanish adults.

PubMed

Schröder, Helmut; Serra-Majem, Luis; Subirana, Isaac; Izquierdo-Pulido, Maria; Fitó, Montserrat; Elosua, Roberto

2016-03-14

Higher monetary diet cost is associated with healthier food choices and better weight management. How changes in diet cost affect changes in diet quality and weight remains unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of changes in individual monetary diet cost on changes in diet quality, measured by the modified Mediterranean diet score recommendations (MDS-rec) and by energy density (ED), as well as changes in weight and BMI. We conducted a prospective, population-based study of 2181 male and female Spaniards aged between 25 and 74 years, who were followed up to the 2009-2010 academic year. We measured weight and height and recorded dietary data using a validated FFQ. Average food cost was calculated from official Spanish government data. We fitted multivariate linear and logistic regression models. The average daily diet cost increased from 3·68(SD0.0·89)€/8·36 MJ to 4·97(SD1·16)€/8·36 MJ during the study period. This increase was significantly associated with improvement in diet quality (Δ ED and Δ MDS-rec; P<0·0001). Each 1€ increase in monetary diet cost per 8·36 MJ was associated with a decrease of 0·3 kg in body weight (P=0·02) and 0·1 kg/m(2) in BMI (P=0·04). These associations were attenuated after adjusting for changes in diet quality indicators. An improvement in diet quality and better weight management were both associated with an increase in diet cost; this could be considered in food policy decisions.

Gallstones and gallbladder cancer-volume and weight of gallstones are associated with gallbladder cancer: a case-control study.

PubMed

Roa, Iván; Ibacache, Gilda; Roa, Juan; Araya, Juan; de Aretxabala, Xabier; Muñoz, Sergio

2006-06-15

Gallstones are considered the most important risk factor for gallbladder cancer. To identify differences in the number, weight, volume, and density of gallstones associated with chronic cholecystitis (CC), gallbladder dysplasia (GD), and gallbladder cancer (GBC). A total of 125 cases were selected, of which 93 had gallstones associated with GBC and 31 had gallstones associated with GD. The controls were those with CC, matched by sex and age. The number, weight, volume, and density of these gallstones were examined in order to determine differences and relative cancer risk. Number: Multiple gallstones were present in over 76% of cases (GBC and GD) and controls (P = ns). The average number of multiple stones was 21 in GBC versus 14 in controls (P < 0.01). Weight: The average weight of the gallstones was 9.6 g in GBC versus 6.0 g in controls (P = 0.0004). The average weight in multiple stones over 10 g had strong association with GBC (P = 0.0006). Volume: The average volume was 11.7 and 6.48 ml in GBC and controls (P = 0.0002). Average volumes of 6, 8, and 10 ml had a relative cancer risk of 5, 7, and 11 times, respectively. Size: No differences were shown between GBC, GD, and controls. The volume of gallstones associated with other risk factors of GBC may be helpful in prioritizing cholecystectomies in symptomatic patients. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

40 CFR Table 3 to Subpart Dddd of... - Work Practice Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... with a 24-hour block average inlet moisture content of less than or equal to 30 percent (by weight, dry... average inlet moisture content of the veneer is less than or equal to 25 percent (by weight, dry basis...

Factors contributing to initial weight loss among adolescents with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Geier, L M; Bekx, M T; Connor, E L

2012-12-01

To evaluate the impact of a multidisciplinary clinic on weight management among adolescents with PCOS. 140 adolescent females were evaluated in a multidisciplinary PCOS clinic from March 2005 to December 2008. The team included a pediatric endocrinologist, health psychologist, dietitian, and pediatric gynecologist. 110 were diagnosed with PCOS based on the Rotterdam Criteria. Height, weight, BMI, number of subspecialists seen, use of metformin, and compliance with return visits were obtained from medical records. American Family Children's Hospital in Madison, Wisconsin. 110 adolescent females with polycystic ovary syndrome. Consultation with a dietitian and health psychologist. Change in weight. The average age at first visit was 15.9 years. The average BMI was 34.7 kg/m(2) (range 18.1-55.5). Seventy-six percent had an initial BMI above the 95(th) percentile. Interactions with providers at the initial visit included a pediatric endocrinologist (100%), health psychologist (60.9%), dietitian (75.5%) and gynecologist (70.9%). Seventy one percent returned for a follow-up visit, (average time of 4.5 months between visits) with 57% achieving weight loss (average 3.5 kg) and an additional 12.6% demonstrating no significant weight gain (< 1.5 kg). Thus, 69.6% demonstrated weight loss/stabilization. In this multidisciplinary clinic for adolescents with PCOS, nearly 70% of patients succeeded in short-term weight stabilization, with 57% demonstrating weight loss. Interactions with the health psychologist and dietitian appeared to play a key role in successful weight control, supporting the importance of psychology and nutrition expertise in the management of this disorder. Copyright © 2012 North American Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Gynecology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Red-shouldered hawk nesting habitat preference in south Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strobel, Bradley N.; Boal, Clint W.

2010-01-01

We examined nesting habitat preference by red-shouldered hawks Buteo lineatus using conditional logistic regression on characteristics measured at 27 occupied nest sites and 68 unused sites in 2005–2009 in south Texas. We measured vegetation characteristics of individual trees (nest trees and unused trees) and corresponding 0.04-ha plots. We evaluated the importance of tree and plot characteristics to nesting habitat selection by comparing a priori tree-specific and plot-specific models using Akaike's information criterion. Models with only plot variables carried 14% more weight than models with only center tree variables. The model-averaged odds ratios indicated red-shouldered hawks selected to nest in taller trees and in areas with higher average diameter at breast height than randomly available within the forest stand. Relative to randomly selected areas, each 1-m increase in nest tree height and 1-cm increase in the plot average diameter at breast height increased the probability of selection by 85% and 10%, respectively. Our results indicate that red-shouldered hawks select nesting habitat based on vegetation characteristics of individual trees as well as the 0.04-ha area surrounding the tree. Our results indicate forest management practices resulting in tall forest stands with large average diameter at breast height would benefit red-shouldered hawks in south Texas.

Do Black Women's Religious Beliefs About Body Image Influence Their Confidence in Their Ability to Lose Weight?

PubMed

Bauer, Alexandria G; Berkley-Patton, Jannette; Bowe-Thompson, Carole; Ruhland-Petty, Therese; Berman, Marcie; Lister, Sheila; Christensen, Kelsey

2017-10-19

Black women are disproportionately burdened by obesity but maintain body satisfaction and strong religious commitment. Although faith-based weight-loss interventions have been effective at promoting weight loss among blacks, little is known about how body image and religious views contribute to weight-related beliefs among religious black women. The purpose of this study was to examine whether demographic and health history factors, religious involvement, and beliefs about body image could explain motivation and confidence to lose weight among a church-affiliated sample of black women. We recruited 240 church-affiliated black women aged 18 to 80 years (average age, 55 y; SD, 12.3) in 2014 from 6 black churches that participated in a larger study, Project FIT (Faith Influencing Transformation), a clustered, diabetes/heart disease/stroke intervention among black women and men. We used baseline data from Project FIT to conduct a cross-sectional study consisting of a survey. Variables approaching significance in preliminary correlation and χ 2 analyses were included in 2 multiple linear regression models examining motivation and confidence in ability to lose weight. In final regression models, body mass index was associated with motivation to lose weight (β = 0.283, P < .001), and beliefs about body image in relation to God predicted confidence to lose weight (β = 0.180, P = .01). Faith-based, weight-loss interventions targeting black women should emphasize physical well-being and highlight the health benefits of weight management rather than the benefits of altering physical appearance and should promote positive beliefs about body image, particularly relating to God.

Statistical assessment of bi-exponential diffusion weighted imaging signal characteristics induced by intravoxel incoherent motion in malignant breast tumors

PubMed Central

Wong, Oi Lei; Lo, Gladys G.; Chan, Helen H. L.; Wong, Ting Ting; Cheung, Polly S. Y.

2016-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to statistically assess whether bi-exponential intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) model better characterizes diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) signal of malignant breast tumor than mono-exponential Gaussian diffusion model. Methods 3 T DWI data of 29 malignant breast tumors were retrospectively included. Linear least-square mono-exponential fitting and segmented least-square bi-exponential fitting were used for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and IVIM parameter quantification, respectively. F-test and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were used to statistically assess the preference of mono-exponential and bi-exponential model using region-of-interests (ROI)-averaged and voxel-wise analysis. Results For ROI-averaged analysis, 15 tumors were significantly better fitted by bi-exponential function and 14 tumors exhibited mono-exponential behavior. The calculated ADC, D (true diffusion coefficient) and f (pseudo-diffusion fraction) showed no significant differences between mono-exponential and bi-exponential preferable tumors. Voxel-wise analysis revealed that 27 tumors contained more voxels exhibiting mono-exponential DWI decay while only 2 tumors presented more bi-exponential decay voxels. ADC was consistently and significantly larger than D for both ROI-averaged and voxel-wise analysis. Conclusions Although the presence of IVIM effect in malignant breast tumors could be suggested, statistical assessment shows that bi-exponential fitting does not necessarily better represent the DWI signal decay in breast cancer under clinically typical acquisition protocol and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Our study indicates the importance to statistically examine the breast cancer DWI signal characteristics in practice. PMID:27709078

Effect of IGF1, GH, and PIT1 markers on the genetic parameters of growth and reproduction traits in Canchim cattle.

PubMed

Grossi, Daniela do Amaral; Buzanskas, Marcos Eli; Grupioni, Natalia Vinhal; de Paz, Claudia Cristina Paro; Regitano, Luciana Correia de Almeida; de Alencar, Maurício Mello; Schenkel, Flávio Schramm; Munari, Danísio Prado

2015-01-01

The availability of dense genomic information has increased genome-wide association studies for the bovine species; however research to assess the effect of single genes on production traits is still important to elucidate the genes functions. On this study the association of IGF1, GH, and PIT1 markers with growth and reproductive traits (birth weight, weaning weight, weight at 12 and 18 months of age, preweaning average daily weight gain, age and weight at first calving, and scrotal circumference at 12 and 18 months of age) were assessed by means of the variance component approach. The phenotypes were adjusted and then analyzed under two animal models, one which considered the polygenic and genotype (IGF1, GH or PIT1 markers) effects (Model 1), and the other which considers only the polygenic effect (Model 2). When the likelihood ratio test and the Bonferroni correction was applied at 5 % significance level, the genetic markers for the IGF1, GH, and PIT1 genes did not influence significantly the traits (p > 0.002). However, evidence of association of IGF1 with birth weight (p = 0.06) and GH with weight at first calving (p = 0.03) and with weight at 12 months of age (p = 0.08) was observed. In conclusion we could not confirm the associations between IGF1, GH, and PIT1 and growth traits that were previously reported in Canchim cattle, and no association was observed between these genes and reproductive traits. Future studies involving functional markers of IGF1, GH and PIT1 genes may help to clarify the role of these genes in growth and reproductive processes.

Use of scan overlap redundancy to enhance multispectral aircraft scanner data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindenlaub, J. C.; Keat, J.

1973-01-01

Two criteria were suggested for optimizing the resolution error versus signal-to-noise-ratio tradeoff. The first criterion uses equal weighting coefficients and chooses n, the number of lines averaged, so as to make the average resolution error equal to the noise error. The second criterion adjusts both the number and relative sizes of the weighting coefficients so as to minimize the total error (resolution error plus noise error). The optimum set of coefficients depends upon the geometry of the resolution element, the number of redundant scan lines, the scan line increment, and the original signal-to-noise ratio of the channel. Programs were developed to find the optimum number and relative weights of the averaging coefficients. A working definition of signal-to-noise ratio was given and used to try line averaging on a typical set of data. Line averaging was evaluated only with respect to its effect on classification accuracy.

An alternative empirical likelihood method in missing response problems and causal inference.

PubMed

Ren, Kaili; Drummond, Christopher A; Brewster, Pamela S; Haller, Steven T; Tian, Jiang; Cooper, Christopher J; Zhang, Biao

2016-11-30

Missing responses are common problems in medical, social, and economic studies. When responses are missing at random, a complete case data analysis may result in biases. A popular debias method is inverse probability weighting proposed by Horvitz and Thompson. To improve efficiency, Robins et al. proposed an augmented inverse probability weighting method. The augmented inverse probability weighting estimator has a double-robustness property and achieves the semiparametric efficiency lower bound when the regression model and propensity score model are both correctly specified. In this paper, we introduce an empirical likelihood-based estimator as an alternative to Qin and Zhang (2007). Our proposed estimator is also doubly robust and locally efficient. Simulation results show that the proposed estimator has better performance when the propensity score is correctly modeled. Moreover, the proposed method can be applied in the estimation of average treatment effect in observational causal inferences. Finally, we apply our method to an observational study of smoking, using data from the Cardiovascular Outcomes in Renal Atherosclerotic Lesions clinical trial. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Gene expression profiling in the Cynomolgus macaque Macaca fascicularis shows variation within the normal birth range

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Although an adverse early-life environment has been linked to an increased risk of developing the metabolic syndrome, the molecular mechanisms underlying altered disease susceptibility as well as their relevance to humans are largely unknown. Importantly, emerging evidence suggests that these effects operate within the normal range of birth weights and involve mechanisms of developmental palsticity rather than pathology. Method To explore this further, we utilised a non-human primate model Macaca fascicularis (Cynomolgus macaque) which shares with humans the same progressive history of the metabolic syndrome. Using microarray we compared tissues from neonates in the average birth weight (50-75th centile) to those of lower birth weight (5-25th centile) and studied the effect of different growth trajectories within the normal range on gene expression levels in the umbilical cord, neonatal liver and skeletal muscle. Results We identified 1973 genes which were differentially expressed in the three tissue types between average and low birth weight animals (P < 0.05). Gene ontology analysis identified that these genes were involved in metabolic processes including cellular lipid metabolism, cellular biosynthesis, cellular macromolecule synthesis, cellular nitrogen metabolism, cellular carbohydrate metabolism, cellular catabolism, nucleotide and nucleic acid metabolism, regulation of molecular functions, biological adhesion and development. Conclusion These differences in gene expression levels between animals in the upper and lower percentiles of the normal birth weight range may point towards early life metabolic adaptations that in later life result in differences in disease risk. PMID:21999700

PREOPERATIVE COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY VOLUMETRY AND GRAFT WEIGHT ESTIMATION IN ADULT LIVING DONOR LIVER TRANSPLANTATION

PubMed Central

PINHEIRO, Rafael S.; CRUZ-JR, Ruy J.; ANDRAUS, Wellington; DUCATTI, Liliana; MARTINO, Rodrigo B.; NACIF, Lucas S.; ROCHA-SANTOS, Vinicius; ARANTES, Rubens M; LAI, Quirino; IBUKI, Felicia S.; ROCHA, Manoel S.; D´ALBUQUERQUE, Luiz A. C.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Computed tomography volumetry (CTV) is a useful tool for predicting graft weights (GW) for living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). Few studies have examined the correlation between CTV and GW in normal liver parenchyma. Aim: To analyze the correlation between CTV and GW in an adult LDLT population and provide a systematic review of the existing mathematical models to calculate partial liver graft weight. Methods: Between January 2009 and January 2013, 28 consecutive donors undergoing right hepatectomy for LDLT were retrospectively reviewed. All grafts were perfused with HTK solution. Estimated graft volume was estimated by CTV and these values were compared to the actual graft weight, which was measured after liver harvesting and perfusion. Results: Median actual GW was 782.5 g, averaged 791.43±136 g and ranged from 520-1185 g. Median estimated graft volume was 927.5 ml, averaged 944.86±200.74 ml and ranged from 600-1477 ml. Linear regression of estimated graft volume and actual GW was significantly linear (GW=0.82 estimated graft volume, r2=0.98, slope=0.47, standard deviation of 0.024 and p<0.0001). Spearman Linear correlation was 0.65 with 95% CI of 0.45 - 0.99 (p<0.0001). Conclusion: The one-to-one rule did not applied in patients with normal liver parenchyma. A better estimation of graft weight could be reached by multiplying estimated graft volume by 0.82. PMID:28489167

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE PAGES

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.; ...

2017-04-19

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

2017-01-01

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. Here, we present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical information from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons run here, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of −17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license. PMID:28423049

InMAP: A model for air pollution interventions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessum, Christopher W.; Hill, Jason D.; Marshall, Julian D.

Mechanistic air pollution modeling is essential in air quality management, yet the extensive expertise and computational resources required to run most models prevent their use in many situations where their results would be useful. We present InMAP (Intervention Model for Air Pollution), which offers an alternative to comprehensive air quality models for estimating the air pollution health impacts of emission reductions and other potential interventions. InMAP estimates annual-average changes in primary and secondary fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations—the air pollution outcome generally causing the largest monetized health damages–attributable to annual changes in precursor emissions. InMAP leverages pre-processed physical and chemical informationmore » from the output of a state-of-the-science chemical transport model and a variable spatial resolution computational grid to perform simulations that are several orders of magnitude less computationally intensive than comprehensive model simulations. In comparisons we run, InMAP recreates comprehensive model predictions of changes in total PM2.5 concentrations with population-weighted mean fractional bias (MFB) of -17% and population-weighted R2 = 0.90. Although InMAP is not specifically designed to reproduce total observed concentrations, it is able to do so within published air quality model performance criteria for total PM2.5. Potential uses of InMAP include studying exposure, health, and environmental justice impacts of potential shifts in emissions for annual-average PM2.5. InMAP can be trained to run for any spatial and temporal domain given the availability of appropriate simulation output from a comprehensive model. The InMAP model source code and input data are freely available online under an open-source license.« less

40 CFR 1065.125 - Engine intake air.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... engines with multiple intakes with separate humidity measurements at each intake, use a flow-weighted average humidity for NOX corrections. If individual flows of each intake are not measured, use good engineering judgment to estimate a flow-weighted average humidity. (3) Temperature. Good engineering judgment...

Some induced intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operators applied to multi-attribute group decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zhi-xin; Xia, Guo-ping; Chen, Ming-yuan

2011-11-01

In this paper, we define various induced intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operators, including induced intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator, induced intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid averaging (I-IFHA) operator, induced interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy OWA operator, and induced interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid averaging (I-IIFHA) operator. We also establish various properties of these operators. And then, an approach based on I-IFHA operator and intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (WA) operator is developed to solve multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems. In such problems, attribute weights and the decision makers' (DMs') weights are real numbers and attribute values provided by the DMs are intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs), and an approach based on I-IIFHA operator and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy WA operator is developed to solve MAGDM problems where the attribute values provided by the DMs are interval-valued IFNs. Furthermore, induced intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid geometric operator and induced interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid geometric operator are proposed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the developed approaches.

[Role of placental apoptosis in fetal growth restriction].

PubMed

Liu, Yuan; Gao, Peng; Xie, Yingbo; Wang, Shuyun; Dai, Minsheng; Jiang, Sen

2002-12-01

To determine the relationship of placental cellular apoptosis and pathophysiology of fetal growth restriction (FGR). Placental samples were obtained from 18 pregnancies complicated by FGR and 14 normal pregnancies. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated deoxyuridine triphosphate nick end labeling (TUNEL) and transmission electron microscopy were used to confirm the occurrence of apoptosis. In FGR group the placental apoptosis rate was (n = 18) 12.1 per thousand, the average placental weight was (236 +/- 24) g, the average birth weight was (2,071 +/- 428) g; In normal group (n = 14), the placental apoptosis rate was 7.3 per thousand, the average placental weight was (354 +/- 63) g, the average birth weight was (3,411 +/- 588) g (P < 0.05). The incidence of apoptosis was significantly higher in placental samples from pregnancies with FGR compared with normal placental samples (P < 0.05). Under transmission election microscopy, apoptosis was obviously compact and the chromatins were formed as mass. These results suggest that apoptosis may play a role in the pathophysiologic mechanisms of FGR.

Cascadia Subduction Zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2008-01-01

The geometry and recurrence times of large earthquakes associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) were discussed and debated at a March 28-29, 2006 Pacific Northwest workshop for the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps. The CSZ is modeled from Cape Mendocino in California to Vancouver Island in British Columbia. We include the same geometry and weighting scheme as was used in the 2002 model (Frankel and others, 2002) based on thermal constraints (Fig. 1; Fluck and others, 1997 and a reexamination by Wang et al., 2003, Fig. 11, eastern edge of intermediate shading). This scheme includes four possibilities for the lower (eastern) limit of seismic rupture: the base of elastic zone (weight 0.1), the base of transition zone (weight 0.2), the midpoint of the transition zone (weight 0.2), and a model with a long north-south segment at 123.8? W in the southern and central portions of the CSZ, with a dogleg to the northwest in the northern portion of the zone (weight 0.5). The latter model was derived from the approximate average longitude of the contour of the 30 km depth of the CSZ as modeled by Fluck et al. (1997). A global study of the maximum depth of thrust earthquakes on subduction zones by Tichelaar and Ruff (1993) indicated maximum depths of about 40 km for most of the subduction zones studied, although the Mexican subduction zone had a maximum depth of about 25 km (R. LaForge, pers. comm., 2006). The recent inversion of GPS data by McCaffrey et al. (2007) shows a significant amount of coupling (a coupling factor of 0.2-0.3) as far east as 123.8? West in some portions of the CSZ. Both of these lines of evidence lend support to the model with a north-south segment at 123.8? W.

Maintaining vigorous activity attenuates 7-yr weight gain in 8340 runners.

PubMed

Williams, Paul T

2007-05-01

Body weight generally increases with aging in Western societies. Although training studies show that exercise produces acute weight loss, it is unclear whether the long-term maintenance of vigorous exercise attenuates the trajectory of age-related weight gain. Specifically, prior studies have not tested whether the maintenance of physical activity, in the absence of any change in activity, prevents weight gain. Prospective study of 6119 male and 2221 female runners whose running distances changed < 5 km x wk(-1) between baseline and follow-up surveys 7 yr later. On average, men who maintained modest (0-23 km x wk(-1)), intermediate (24-47 km x wk(-1)), or prolonged running distances (> or = 48 km x wk(-1)) all gained weight through age 64; however, those who maintained > or = 48 km x wk(-1) had one half the average annual weight gain of those who maintained < 24 km x wk(-1). For example, between the ages of 35 and 44 in men and 30 and 39 yr in women, those who maintained < 24 km x wk(-1) gained, on average, 2.1 and 2.9 kg more per decade than those averaging > 48 km x wk(-1). Age-related weight gain, and its attenuation by maintained exercise, were both greater in younger than in older men. Men's gains in waist circumference with age, and its attenuation by maintaining running, were the same in older and younger men. Regardless of age, women increased their body weight, waist circumference, and hip circumference over time, and these measurements were attenuated in proportion to their maintained running distance. In both sexes, running disproportionately prevented more extreme increases in weight. As they aged, men and women gained less weight in proportion to their levels of sustained vigorous activity. This long-term beneficial effect is in addition to the acute weight loss that occurs with increased activity.

Grapevine canopy reflectance and yield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minden, K. A.; Philipson, W. R.

1982-01-01

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were applied in a study of Concord grapevines. Spectroradiometric measurements of 18 experimental vines were collected on three dates during one growing season. Spectral reflectance, determined at 30 intervals from 0.4 to 1.1 microns, was correlated with vine yield, pruning weight, clusters/vine, and nitrogen input. One date of airborne multispectral scanner data (11 channels) was collected over commercial vineyards, and the average radiance values for eight vineyard sections were correlated with the corresponding average yields. Although some correlations were significant, they were inadequate for developing a reliable yield prediction model.

Ultrahigh molecular weight aromatic siloxane polymers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ludwick, L. M.

1982-01-01

The condensation of a diol with a silane in toluene yields a silphenylene-siloxane polymer. The reaction of stiochiometric amounts of the diol and silane produced products with molecular weights in the range 2.0 - 6.0 x 10 to the 5th power. The molecular weight of the product was greatly increased by a multistep technique. The methodology for synthesis of high molecular weight polymers using a two step procedure was refined. Polymers with weight average molecular weights in excess of 1.0 x 10 to the 6th power produced by this method. Two more reactive silanes, bis(pyrrolidinyl)dimethylsilane and bis(gamma butyrolactam)dimethylsilane, are compared with the dimethyleminodimethylsilane in ability to advance the molecular weight of the prepolymer. The polymers produced are characterized by intrinsic viscosity in tetrahydrofuran. Weight and number average molecular weights and polydispersity are determined by gel permeation chromatography.

Design of Probabilistic Random Forests with Applications to Anticancer Drug Sensitivity Prediction

PubMed Central

Rahman, Raziur; Haider, Saad; Ghosh, Souparno; Pal, Ranadip

2015-01-01

Random forests consisting of an ensemble of regression trees with equal weights are frequently used for design of predictive models. In this article, we consider an extension of the methodology by representing the regression trees in the form of probabilistic trees and analyzing the nature of heteroscedasticity. The probabilistic tree representation allows for analytical computation of confidence intervals (CIs), and the tree weight optimization is expected to provide stricter CIs with comparable performance in mean error. We approached the ensemble of probabilistic trees’ prediction from the perspectives of a mixture distribution and as a weighted sum of correlated random variables. We applied our methodology to the drug sensitivity prediction problem on synthetic and cancer cell line encyclopedia dataset and illustrated that tree weights can be selected to reduce the average length of the CI without increase in mean error. PMID:27081304

Weight of fitness deviation governs strict physical chaos in replicator dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandit, Varun; Mukhopadhyay, Archan; Chakraborty, Sagar

2018-03-01

Replicator equation—a paradigm equation in evolutionary game dynamics—mathematizes the frequency dependent selection of competing strategies vying to enhance their fitness (quantified by the average payoffs) with respect to the average fitnesses of the evolving population under consideration. In this paper, we deal with two discrete versions of the replicator equation employed to study evolution in a population where any two players' interaction is modelled by a two-strategy symmetric normal-form game. There are twelve distinct classes of such games, each typified by a particular ordinal relationship among the elements of the corresponding payoff matrix. Here, we find the sufficient conditions for the existence of asymptotic solutions of the replicator equations such that the solutions—fixed points, periodic orbits, and chaotic trajectories—are all strictly physical, meaning that the frequency of any strategy lies inside the closed interval zero to one at all times. Thus, we elaborate on which of the twelve types of games are capable of showing meaningful physical solutions and for which of the two types of replicator equation. Subsequently, we introduce the concept of the weight of fitness deviation that is the scaling factor in a positive affine transformation connecting two payoff matrices such that the corresponding one-shot games have exactly same Nash equilibria and evolutionary stable states. The weight also quantifies how much the excess of fitness of a strategy over the average fitness of the population affects the per capita change in the frequency of the strategy. Intriguingly, the weight's variation is capable of making the Nash equilibria and the evolutionary stable states, useless by introducing strict physical chaos in the replicator dynamics based on the normal-form game.

Weight of fitness deviation governs strict physical chaos in replicator dynamics.

PubMed

Pandit, Varun; Mukhopadhyay, Archan; Chakraborty, Sagar

2018-03-01

Replicator equation-a paradigm equation in evolutionary game dynamics-mathematizes the frequency dependent selection of competing strategies vying to enhance their fitness (quantified by the average payoffs) with respect to the average fitnesses of the evolving population under consideration. In this paper, we deal with two discrete versions of the replicator equation employed to study evolution in a population where any two players' interaction is modelled by a two-strategy symmetric normal-form game. There are twelve distinct classes of such games, each typified by a particular ordinal relationship among the elements of the corresponding payoff matrix. Here, we find the sufficient conditions for the existence of asymptotic solutions of the replicator equations such that the solutions-fixed points, periodic orbits, and chaotic trajectories-are all strictly physical, meaning that the frequency of any strategy lies inside the closed interval zero to one at all times. Thus, we elaborate on which of the twelve types of games are capable of showing meaningful physical solutions and for which of the two types of replicator equation. Subsequently, we introduce the concept of the weight of fitness deviation that is the scaling factor in a positive affine transformation connecting two payoff matrices such that the corresponding one-shot games have exactly same Nash equilibria and evolutionary stable states. The weight also quantifies how much the excess of fitness of a strategy over the average fitness of the population affects the per capita change in the frequency of the strategy. Intriguingly, the weight's variation is capable of making the Nash equilibria and the evolutionary stable states, useless by introducing strict physical chaos in the replicator dynamics based on the normal-form game.

Survival and recovery rates of American woodcock banded in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, David G.; Hines, James E.; Luukkonen, David R.

2003-01-01

American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population indices have declined since U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) monitoring began in 1968. Management to stop and/or reverse this population trend has been hampered by the lack of recent information on woodcock population parameters. Without recent information on survival rate trends, managers have had to assume that the recent declines in recruitment indices are the only parameter driving woodcock declines. Using program MARK, we estimated annual survival and recovery rates of adult and juvenile American woodcock, and estimated summer survival of local (young incapable of sustained flight) woodcock banded in Michigan between 1978 and 1998. We constructed a set of candidate models from a global model with age (local, juvenile, adult) and time (year)-dependent survival and recovery rates to no age or time-dependent survival and recovery rates. Five models were supported by the data, with all models suggesting that survival rates differed among age classes, and 4 models had survival rates that were constant over time. The fifth model suggested that juvenile and adult survival rates were linear on a logit scale over time. Survival rates averaged over likelihood-weighted model results were 0.8784 +/- 0.1048 (SE) for locals, 0.2646 +/- 0.0423 (SE) for juveniles, and 0.4898 +/- 0.0329 (SE) for adults. Weighted average recovery rates were 0.0326 +/- 0.0053 (SE) for juveniles and 0.0313 +/- 0.0047 (SE) for adults. Estimated differences between our survival estimates and those from prior years were small, and our confidence around those differences was variable and uncertain. juvenile survival rates were low.

Comparison of two data mining techniques in labeling diagnosis to Iranian pharmacy claim dataset: artificial neural network (ANN) versus decision tree model.

PubMed

Rezaei-Darzi, Ehsan; Farzadfar, Farshad; Hashemi-Meshkini, Amir; Navidi, Iman; Mahmoudi, Mahmoud; Varmaghani, Mehdi; Mehdipour, Parinaz; Soudi Alamdari, Mahsa; Tayefi, Batool; Naderimagham, Shohreh; Soleymani, Fatemeh; Mesdaghinia, Alireza; Delavari, Alireza; Mohammad, Kazem

2014-12-01

This study aimed to evaluate and compare the prediction accuracy of two data mining techniques, including decision tree and neural network models in labeling diagnosis to gastrointestinal prescriptions in Iran. This study was conducted in three phases: data preparation, training phase, and testing phase. A sample from a database consisting of 23 million pharmacy insurance claim records, from 2004 to 2011 was used, in which a total of 330 prescriptions were assessed and used to train and test the models simultaneously. In the training phase, the selected prescriptions were assessed by both a physician and a pharmacist separately and assigned a diagnosis. To test the performance of each model, a k-fold stratified cross validation was conducted in addition to measuring their sensitivity and specificity. Generally, two methods had very similar accuracies. Considering the weighted average of true positive rate (sensitivity) and true negative rate (specificity), the decision tree had slightly higher accuracy in its ability for correct classification (83.3% and 96% versus 80.3% and 95.1%, respectively). However, when the weighted average of ROC area (AUC between each class and all other classes) was measured, the ANN displayed higher accuracies in predicting the diagnosis (93.8% compared with 90.6%). According to the result of this study, artificial neural network and decision tree model represent similar accuracy in labeling diagnosis to GI prescription.

[Crop geometry identification based on inversion of semiempirical BRDF models].

PubMed

Zhao, Chun-jiang; Huang, Wen-jiang; Mu, Xu-han; Wang, Jin-diz; Wang, Ji-hua

2009-09-01

With the rapid development of remote sensing technology, the application of remote sensing has extended from single view angle to multi-view angles. It was studied for the qualitative and quantitative effect of average leaf angle (ALA) on crop canopy reflected spectrum. Effect of ALA on canopy reflected spectrum can not be ignored with inversion of leaf area index (LAI) and monitoring of crop growth condition by remote sensing technology. Investigations of the effect of erective and horizontal varieties were conducted by bidirectional canopy reflected spectrum and semiempirical bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models. The sensitive analysis was done based on the weight for the volumetric kernel (fvol), the weight for the geometric kernel (fgeo), and the weight for constant corresponding to isotropic reflectance (fiso) at red band (680 nm) and near infrared band (800 nm). By combining the weights of the red and near-infrared bands, the semiempirical models can obtain structural information by retrieving biophysical parameters from the physical BRDF model and a number of bidirectional observations. So, it will allow an on-site and non-sampling mode of crop ALA identification, which is useful for using remote sensing for crop growth monitoring and for improving the LAI inversion accuracy, and it will help the farmers in guiding the fertilizer and irrigation management in the farmland without a priori knowledge.

Retrofit Weight-Loss Outcomes at 6, 12, and 24 Months and Characteristics of 12-Month High Performers: A Retrospective Analysis

PubMed Central

Hanson, Nicholas Buck; Kachin, Kevin; Berger, Jan

2016-01-01

Background Obesity is the leading cause of preventable death costing the health care system billions of dollars. Combining self-monitoring technology with personalized behavior change strategies results in clinically significant weight loss. However, there is a lack of real-world outcomes in commercial weight-loss program research. Objective Retrofit is a personalized weight management and disease-prevention solution. This study aimed to report Retrofit’s weight-loss outcomes at 6, 12, and 24 months and characterize behaviors, age, and sex of high-performing participants who achieved weight loss of 10% or greater at 12 months. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed from 2011 to 2014 using 2720 participants enrolled in a Retrofit weight-loss program. Participants had a starting body mass index (BMI) of >25 kg/m² and were at least 18 years of age. Weight measurements were assessed at 6, 12, and 24 months in the program to evaluate change in body weight, BMI, and percentage of participants who achieved 5% or greater weight loss. A secondary analysis characterized high-performing participants who lost ≥10% of their starting weight (n=238). Characterized behaviors were evaluated, including self-monitoring through weigh-ins, number of days wearing an activity tracker, daily step count average, and engagement through coaching conversations via Web-based messages, and number of coaching sessions attended. Results Average weight loss at 6 months was −5.55% for male and −4.86% for female participants. Male and female participants had an average weight loss of −6.28% and −5.37% at 12 months, respectively. Average weight loss at 24 months was −5.03% and −3.15% for males and females, respectively. Behaviors of high-performing participants were assessed at 12 months. Number of weigh-ins were greater in high-performing male (197.3 times vs 165.4 times, P=.001) and female participants (222 times vs 167 times, P<.001) compared with remaining participants. Total activity tracker days and average steps per day were greater in high-performing females (304.7 vs 266.6 days, P<.001; 8380.9 vs 7059.7 steps, P<.001, respectively) and males (297.1 vs 255.3 days, P<.001; 9099.3 vs 8251.4 steps, P=.008, respectively). High-performing female participants had significantly more coaching conversations via Web-based messages than remaining female participants (341.4 vs 301.1, P=.03), as well as more days with at least one such electronic message (118 vs 108 days, P=.03). High-performing male participants displayed similar behavior. Conclusions Participants on the Retrofit program lost an average of −5.21% at 6 months, −5.83% at 12 months, and −4.09% at 24 months. High-performing participants show greater adherence to self-monitoring behaviors of weighing in, number of days wearing an activity tracker, and average number of steps per day. Female high performers have higher coaching engagement through conversation days and total number of coaching conversations. PMID:27549134

Genomic prediction in a nuclear population of layers using single-step models.

PubMed

Yan, Yiyuan; Wu, Guiqin; Liu, Aiqiao; Sun, Congjiao; Han, Wenpeng; Li, Guangqi; Yang, Ning

2018-02-01

Single-step genomic prediction method has been proposed to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction by incorporating information of both genotyped and ungenotyped animals. The objective of this study is to compare the prediction performance of single-step model with a 2-step models and the pedigree-based models in a nuclear population of layers. A total of 1,344 chickens across 4 generations were genotyped by a 600 K SNP chip. Four traits were analyzed, i.e., body weight at 28 wk (BW28), egg weight at 28 wk (EW28), laying rate at 38 wk (LR38), and Haugh unit at 36 wk (HU36). In predicting offsprings, individuals from generation 1 to 3 were used as training data and females from generation 4 were used as validation set. The accuracies of predicted breeding values by pedigree BLUP (PBLUP), genomic BLUP (GBLUP), SSGBLUP and single-step blending (SSBlending) were compared for both genotyped and ungenotyped individuals. For genotyped females, GBLUP performed no better than PBLUP because of the small size of training data, while the 2 single-step models predicted more accurately than the PBLUP model. The average predictive ability of SSGBLUP and SSBlending were 16.0% and 10.8% higher than the PBLUP model across traits, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive abilities for ungenotyped individuals were also enhanced. The average improvements of prediction abilities were 5.9% and 1.5% for SSGBLUP and SSBlending model, respectively. It was concluded that single-step models, especially the SSGBLUP model, can yield more accurate prediction of genetic merits and are preferable for practical implementation of genomic selection in layers. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

The role of sex and body weight on the metabolic effects of high-fat diet in C57BL/6N mice

PubMed Central

Ingvorsen, C; Karp, N A; Lelliott, C J

2017-01-01

Background: Metabolic disorders are commonly investigated using knockout and transgenic mouse models on the C57BL/6N genetic background due to its genetic susceptibility to the deleterious metabolic effects of high-fat diet (HFD). There is growing awareness of the need to consider sex in disease progression, but limited attention has been paid to sexual dimorphism in mouse models and its impact in metabolic phenotypes. We assessed the effect of HFD and the impact of sex on metabolic variables in this strain. Methods: We generated a reference data set encompassing glucose tolerance, body composition and plasma chemistry data from 586 C57BL/6N mice fed a standard chow and 733 fed a HFD collected as part of a high-throughput phenotyping pipeline. Linear mixed model regression analysis was used in a dual analysis to assess the effect of HFD as an absolute change in phenotype, but also as a relative change accounting for the potential confounding effect of body weight. Results: HFD had a significant impact on all variables tested with an average absolute effect size of 29%. For the majority of variables (78%), the treatment effect was modified by sex and this was dominated by male-specific or a male stronger effect. On average, there was a 13.2% difference in the effect size between the male and female mice for sexually dimorphic variables. HFD led to a significant body weight phenotype (24% increase), which acts as a confounding effect on the other analysed variables. For 79% of the variables, body weight was found to be a significant source of variation, but even after accounting for this confounding effect, similar HFD-induced phenotypic changes were found to when not accounting for weight. Conclusion: HFD and sex are powerful modifiers of metabolic parameters in C57BL/6N mice. We also demonstrate the value of considering body size as a covariate to obtain a richer understanding of metabolic phenotypes. PMID:28394359

Quantization and training of object detection networks with low-precision weights and activations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bo; Liu, Jian; Zhou, Li; Wang, Yun; Chen, Jie

2018-01-01

As convolutional neural networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in object recognition and detection, there is a growing need for deploying these systems on resource-constrained mobile platforms. However, the computational burden and energy consumption of inference for these networks are significantly higher than what most low-power devices can afford. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a method to train object detection networks with low-precision weights and activations. The probability density functions of weights and activations of each layer are first directly estimated using piecewise Gaussian models. Then, the optimal quantization intervals and step sizes for each convolution layer are adaptively determined according to the distribution of weights and activations. As the most computationally expensive convolutions can be replaced by effective fixed point operations, the proposed method can drastically reduce computation complexity and memory footprint. Performing on the tiny you only look once (YOLO) and YOLO architectures, the proposed method achieves comparable accuracy to their 32-bit counterparts. As an illustration, the proposed 4-bit and 8-bit quantized versions of the YOLO model achieve a mean average precision of 62.6% and 63.9%, respectively, on the Pascal visual object classes 2012 test dataset. The mAP of the 32-bit full-precision baseline model is 64.0%.

Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

2018-03-01

GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

Optimisation and establishment of diagnostic reference levels in paediatric plain radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulo, Graciano do Nascimento Nobre

Purpose: This study aimed to propose Diagnostic Reference Levels (DRLs) in paediatric plain radiography and to optimise the most frequent paediatric plain radiography examinations in Portugal following an analysis and evaluation of current practice. Methods and materials: Anthropometric data (weight, patient height and thickness of the irradiated anatomy) was collected from 9,935 patients referred for a radiography procedure to one of the three dedicated paediatric hospitals in Portugal. National DRLs were calculated for the three most frequent X-ray procedures at the three hospitals: chest AP/PA projection; abdomen AP projection; pelvis AP projection. Exposure factors and patient dose were collected prospectively at the clinical sites. In order to analyse the relationship between exposure factors, the use of technical features and dose, experimental tests were made using two anthropomorphic phantoms: a) CIRSTM ATOM model 705; height: 110cm, weight: 19kg and b) Kyoto kagakuTM model PBU-60; height: 165cm, weight: 50kg. After phantom data collection, an objective image analysis was performed by analysing the variation of the mean value of the standard deviation, measured with OsiriX software (Pixmeo, Switzerland). After proposing new exposure criteria, a Visual Grading Characteristic image quality evaluation was performed blindly by four paediatric radiologists, each with a minimum of 10 years of professional experience, using anatomical criteria scoring. Results: DRLs by patient weight groups have been established for the first time. ESAKP75 DRLs for both patient age and weight groups were also obtained and are described in the thesis. Significant dose reduction was achieved through the implementation of an optimisation programme: an average reduction of 41% and 18% on KAPP75 and ESAKP75, respectively for chest plain radiography; an average reduction of 58% and 53% on KAPP75 and ESAKP75, respectively for abdomen plain radiography; and an average reduction of 47% and 48% on KAPP75 and ESAKP75, respectively for pelvis plain radiography. Conclusion: Portuguese DRLs for plain radiography were obtained for paediatric plain radiography (chest AP/PA, abdomen and pelvis). Experimental phantom tests identified adequate plain radiography exposure criteria, validated by objective and subjective image quality analysis. The new exposure criteria were put into practice in one of the paediatric hospitals, by introducing an optimisation programme. The implementation of the optimisation programme allowed a significant dose reduction to paediatric patients, without compromising image quality. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Quantitative prediction of drug side effects based on drug-related features.

PubMed

Niu, Yanqing; Zhang, Wen

2017-09-01

Unexpected side effects of drugs are great concern in the drug development, and the identification of side effects is an important task. Recently, machine learning methods are proposed to predict the presence or absence of interested side effects for drugs, but it is difficult to make the accurate prediction for all of them. In this paper, we transform side effect profiles of drugs as their quantitative scores, by summing up their side effects with weights. The quantitative scores may measure the dangers of drugs, and thus help to compare the risk of different drugs. Here, we attempt to predict quantitative scores of drugs, namely the quantitative prediction. Specifically, we explore a variety of drug-related features and evaluate their discriminative powers for the quantitative prediction. Then, we consider several feature combination strategies (direct combination, average scoring ensemble combination) to integrate three informative features: chemical substructures, targets, and treatment indications. Finally, the average scoring ensemble model which produces the better performances is used as the final quantitative prediction model. Since weights for side effects are empirical values, we randomly generate different weights in the simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the quantitative method is robust to different weights, and produces satisfying results. Although other state-of-the-art methods cannot make the quantitative prediction directly, the prediction results can be transformed as the quantitative scores. By indirect comparison, the proposed method produces much better results than benchmark methods in the quantitative prediction. In conclusion, the proposed method is promising for the quantitative prediction of side effects, which may work cooperatively with existing state-of-the-art methods to reveal dangers of drugs.

Mathematical model in post-mortem estimation of brain edema using morphometric parameters.

PubMed

Radojevic, Nemanja; Radnic, Bojana; Vucinic, Jelena; Cukic, Dragana; Lazovic, Ranko; Asanin, Bogdan; Savic, Slobodan

2017-01-01

Current autopsy principles for evaluating the existence of brain edema are based on a macroscopic subjective assessment performed by pathologists. The gold standard is a time-consuming histological verification of the presence of the edema. By measuring the diameters of the cranial cavity, as individually determined morphometric parameters, a mathematical model for rapid evaluation of brain edema was created, based on the brain weight measured during the autopsy. A cohort study was performed on 110 subjects, divided into two groups according to the histological presence or absence of (the - deleted from the text) brain edema. In all subjects, the following measures were determined: the volume and the diameters of the cranial cavity (longitudinal and transverse distance and height), the brain volume, and the brain weight. The complex mathematical algorithm revealed a formula for the coefficient ε, which is useful to conclude whether a brain edema is present or not. The average density of non-edematous brain is 0.967 g/ml, while the average density of edematous brain is 1.148 g/ml. The resulting formula for the coefficient ε is (5.79 x longitudinal distance x transverse distance)/brain weight. Coefficient ε can be calculated using measurements of the diameters of the cranial cavity and the brain weight, performed during the autopsy. If the resulting ε is less than 0.9484, it could be stated that there is cerebral edema with a reliability of 98.5%. The method discussed in this paper aims to eliminate the burden of relying on subjective assessments when determining the presence of a brain edema. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Prenatal Exposure to Tetrachloroethylene-Contaminated Drinking Water and the Risk of Adverse Birth Outcomes

PubMed Central

Aschengrau, Ann; Weinberg, Janice; Rogers, Sarah; Gallagher, Lisa; Winter, Michael; Vieira, Veronica; Webster, Thomas; Ozonoff, David

2008-01-01

Background Prior studies of prenatal exposure to tetrachloroethylene (PCE) have shown mixed results regarding its effect on birth weight and gestational age. Objectives In this retrospective cohort study we examined whether PCE contamination of public drinking-water supplies in Massachusetts influenced the birth weight and gestational duration of children whose mothers were exposed before the child’s delivery. Methods The study included 1,353 children whose mothers were exposed to PCE-contaminated drinking water and a comparable group of 772 children of unexposed mothers. Birth records were used to identify subjects and provide information on the outcomes. Mothers completed a questionnaire to gather information on residential histories and confounding variables. PCE exposure was estimated using EPANET water distribution system modeling software that incorporated a fate and transport model. Results We found no meaningful associations between PCE exposure and birth weight or gestational duration. Compared with children whose mothers were unexposed during the year of the last menstrual period (LMP), adjusted mean differences in birth weight were 20.9, 6.2, 30.1, and 15.2 g for children whose mothers’ average monthly exposure during the LMP year ranged from the lowest to highest quartile. Similarly, compared with unexposed children, adjusted mean differences in gestational age were −0.2, 0.1, −0.1, and −0.2 weeks for children whose mothers’ average monthly exposure ranged from the lowest to highest quartile. Similar results were observed for two other measures of prenatal exposure. Conclusions These results suggest that prenatal PCE exposure does not have an adverse effect on these birth outcomes at the exposure levels experienced by this population. PMID:18560539

Breeding value accuracy estimates for growth traits using random regression and multi-trait models in Nelore cattle.

PubMed

Boligon, A A; Baldi, F; Mercadante, M E Z; Lobo, R B; Pereira, R J; Albuquerque, L G

2011-06-28

We quantified the potential increase in accuracy of expected breeding value for weights of Nelore cattle, from birth to mature age, using multi-trait and random regression models on Legendre polynomials and B-spline functions. A total of 87,712 weight records from 8144 females were used, recorded every three months from birth to mature age from the Nelore Brazil Program. For random regression analyses, all female weight records from birth to eight years of age (data set I) were considered. From this general data set, a subset was created (data set II), which included only nine weight records: at birth, weaning, 365 and 550 days of age, and 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years of age. Data set II was analyzed using random regression and multi-trait models. The model of analysis included the contemporary group as fixed effects and age of dam as a linear and quadratic covariable. In the random regression analyses, average growth trends were modeled using a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of age. Residual variances were modeled by a step function with five classes. Legendre polynomials of fourth and sixth order were utilized to model the direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, while third-order Legendre polynomials were considered for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. Quadratic polynomials were applied to model all random effects in random regression models on B-spline functions. Direct genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using three segments or five coefficients, and genetic maternal and maternal permanent environmental effects were modeled with one segment or three coefficients in the random regression models on B-spline functions. For both data sets (I and II), animals ranked differently according to expected breeding value obtained by random regression or multi-trait models. With random regression models, the highest gains in accuracy were obtained at ages with a low number of weight records. The results indicate that random regression models provide more accurate expected breeding values than the traditionally finite multi-trait models. Thus, higher genetic responses are expected for beef cattle growth traits by replacing a multi-trait model with random regression models for genetic evaluation. B-spline functions could be applied as an alternative to Legendre polynomials to model covariance functions for weights from birth to mature age.

Extension of the momentum transfer model to time-dependent pipe turbulence.

PubMed

Calzetta, Esteban

2012-02-01

We analyze a possible extension of Gioia and Chakraborty's momentum transfer model of friction in steady turbulent pipe flows [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 044502 (2006)] to the case of time- and/or space-dependent turbulent flows. The end result is an expression for the stress at the wall as the sum of a steady and a dynamic component. The steady part is obtained by using the instantaneous velocity in the expression for the stress at the wall of a stationary flow. The unsteady part is a weighted average over the history of the flow acceleration, with a weighting function similar to that proposed by Vardy and Brown [J. Sound Vibr. 259, 1011 (2003); J. Sound Vibr. 270, 233 (2004)], but naturally including the effect of spatial derivatives of the mean flow, as in the Brunone model [Brunone et al., J. Water Res. Plan. Manage. 126, 236 (2000)].

Drag coefficients for modeling flow through emergent vegetation in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, J.K.; Roig, L.C.; Jenter, H.L.; Visser, H.M.

2004-01-01

Hydraulic data collected in a flume fitted with pans of sawgrass were analyzed to determine the vertically averaged drag coefficient as a function of vegetation characteristics. The drag coefficient is required for modeling flow through emergent vegetation at low Reynolds numbers in the Florida Everglades. Parameters of the vegetation, such as the stem population per unit bed area and the average stem/leaf width, were measured for five fixed vegetation layers. The vertically averaged vegetation parameters for each experiment were then computed by weighted average over the submerged portion of the vegetation. Only laminar flow through emergent vegetation was considered, because this is the dominant flow regime of the inland Everglades. A functional form for the vegetation drag coefficient was determined by linear regression of the logarithmic transforms of measured resistance force and Reynolds number. The coefficients of the drag coefficient function were then determined for the Everglades, using extensive flow and vegetation measurements taken in the field. The Everglades data show that the stem spacing and the Reynolds number are important parameters for the determination of vegetation drag coefficient. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A behavioral weight-loss intervention for persons with serious mental illness in psychiatric rehabilitation centers.

PubMed

Daumit, G L; Dalcin, A T; Jerome, G J; Young, D R; Charleston, J; Crum, R M; Anthony, C; Hayes, J H; McCarron, P B; Khaykin, E; Appel, L J

2011-08-01

Overweight and obesity are epidemic in populations with serious mental illnesses. We developed and pilot-tested a behavioral weight-loss intervention appropriately tailored for persons with serious mental disorders. We conducted a single-arm pilot study in two psychiatric rehabilitation day programs in Maryland, and enrolled 63 overweight or obese adults. The 6-month intervention provided group and individual weight management and group physical activity classes. The primary outcome was weight change from baseline to 6 months. A total of 64% of those potentially eligible enrolled at the centers. The mean age was 43.7 years; 56% were women; 49% were white; and over half had schizophrenia or a schizoaffective disorder. One-third had hypertension and one-fifth had diabetes. In total, 52 (82%) completed the study; others were discharged from psychiatric centers before completion of the study. Average attendance across all weight management sessions was 70% (87% on days participants attended the center) and 59% for physical activity classes (74% on days participants attended the center). From a baseline mean of 210.9 lbs (s.d. 43.9), average weight loss for 52 participants was 4.5 lb (s.d. 12.8) (P<0.014). On average, participants lost 1.9% of body weight. Mean waist circumference change was 3.1 cm (s.d. 5.6). Participants on average increased the distance on the 6-minute walk test by 8%. This pilot study documents the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a behavioral weight-loss intervention in adults with serious mental illness who were attendees at psychiatric rehabilitation centers. The results may have implications for developing weight-loss interventions in other institutional settings such as schools or nursing homes.

The mixed impact of medical school on medical students' implicit and explicit weight bias.

PubMed

Phelan, Sean M; Puhl, Rebecca M; Burke, Sara E; Hardeman, Rachel; Dovidio, John F; Nelson, David B; Przedworski, Julia; Burgess, Diana J; Perry, Sylvia; Yeazel, Mark W; van Ryn, Michelle

2015-10-01

Health care trainees demonstrate implicit (automatic, unconscious) and explicit (conscious) bias against people from stigmatised and marginalised social groups, which can negatively influence communication and decision making. Medical schools are well positioned to intervene and reduce bias in new physicians. This study was designed to assess medical school factors that influence change in implicit and explicit bias against individuals from one stigmatised group: people with obesity. This was a prospective cohort study of medical students enrolled at 49 US medical schools randomly selected from all US medical schools within the strata of public and private schools and region. Participants were 1795 medical students surveyed at the beginning of their first year and end of their fourth year. Web-based surveys included measures of weight bias, and medical school experiences and climate. Bias change was compared with changes in bias in the general public over the same period. Linear mixed models were used to assess the impact of curriculum, contact with people with obesity, and faculty role modelling on weight bias change. Increased implicit and explicit biases were associated with less positive contact with patients with obesity and more exposure to faculty role modelling of discriminatory behaviour or negative comments about patients with obesity. Increased implicit bias was associated with training in how to deal with difficult patients. On average, implicit weight bias decreased and explicit bias increased during medical school, over a period of time in which implicit weight bias in the general public increased and explicit bias remained stable. Medical schools may reduce students' weight biases by increasing positive contact between students and patients with obesity, eliminating unprofessional role modelling by faculty members and residents, and altering curricula focused on treating difficult patients. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Alternative Fuels Data Center

Science.gov Websites

gross vehicle weight limits by a weight equal to the difference between the average weight of the diesel tank and fueling system. The NGV maximum gross weight may not exceed 82,000 pounds. (Reference

Geo-referenced multimedia environmental fate model (G-CIEMS): model formulation and comparison to the generic model and monitoring approaches.

PubMed

Suzuki, Noriyuki; Murasawa, Kaori; Sakurai, Takeo; Nansai, Keisuke; Matsuhashi, Keisuke; Moriguchi, Yuichi; Tanabe, Kiyoshi; Nakasugi, Osami; Morita, Masatoshi

2004-11-01

A spatially resolved and geo-referenced dynamic multimedia environmental fate model, G-CIEMS (Grid-Catchment Integrated Environmental Modeling System) was developed on a geographical information system (GIS). The case study for Japan based on the air grid cells of 5 x 5 km resolution and catchments with an average area of 9.3 km2, which corresponds to about 40,000 air grid cells and 38,000 river segments/catchment polygons, were performed for dioxins, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and di-(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate. The averaged concentration of the model and monitoring output were within a factor of 2-3 for all the media. Outputs from G-CIEMS and the generic model were essentially comparable when identical parameters were employed, whereas the G-CIEMS model gave explicit information of distribution of chemicals in the environment. Exposure-weighted averaged concentrations (EWAC) in air were calculated to estimate the exposure ofthe population, based on the results of generic, G-CIEMS, and monitoring approaches. The G-CIEMS approach showed significantly better agreement with the monitoring-derived EWAC than the generic model approach. Implication for the use of a geo-referenced modeling approach in the risk assessment scheme is discussed as a generic-spatial approach, which can be used to provide more accurate exposure estimation with distribution information, using generally available data sources for a wide range of chemicals.

Area-averaged evapotranspiration over a heterogeneous land surface: aggregation of multi-point EC flux measurements with a high-resolution land-cover map and footprint analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Feinan; Wang, Weizhen; Wang, Jiemin; Xu, Ziwei; Qi, Yuan; Wu, Yueru

2017-08-01

The determination of area-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) at the satellite pixel scale/model grid scale over a heterogeneous land surface plays a significant role in developing and improving the parameterization schemes of the remote sensing based ET estimation models and general hydro-meteorological models. The Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (HiWATER) flux matrix provided a unique opportunity to build an aggregation scheme for area-averaged fluxes. On the basis of the HiWATER flux matrix dataset and high-resolution land-cover map, this study focused on estimating the area-averaged ET over a heterogeneous landscape with footprint analysis and multivariate regression. The procedure is as follows. Firstly, quality control and uncertainty estimation for the data of the flux matrix, including 17 eddy-covariance (EC) sites and four groups of large-aperture scintillometers (LASs), were carefully done. Secondly, the representativeness of each EC site was quantitatively evaluated; footprint analysis was also performed for each LAS path. Thirdly, based on the high-resolution land-cover map derived from aircraft remote sensing, a flux aggregation method was established combining footprint analysis and multiple-linear regression. Then, the area-averaged sensible heat fluxes obtained from the EC flux matrix were validated by the LAS measurements. Finally, the area-averaged ET of the kernel experimental area of HiWATER was estimated. Compared with the formerly used and rather simple approaches, such as the arithmetic average and area-weighted methods, the present scheme is not only with a much better database, but also has a solid grounding in physics and mathematics in the integration of area-averaged fluxes over a heterogeneous surface. Results from this study, both instantaneous and daily ET at the satellite pixel scale, can be used for the validation of relevant remote sensing models and land surface process models. Furthermore, this work will be extended to the water balance study of the whole Heihe River basin.

Weight loss in exclusively breastfed infants delivered by cesarean birth.

PubMed

Preer, Genevieve L; Newby, P K; Philipp, Barbara L

2012-05-01

Rates of exclusive breastfeeding during the postpartum hospital stay are a key measure of quality maternity care. Often, however, concern for excessive in-hospital weight loss leads to formula supplementation of breastfed infants. The American Academy of Pediatrics defines 7% weight loss as acceptable for breastfed newborns regardless of mode of delivery. Typical weight loss in exclusively breastfed infants delivered by cesarean birth has not been studied nor have possible correlates of greater weight loss in this population. To determine average weight loss in a cohort of exclusively breastfed infants delivered by cesarean birth and to identify correlates of greater than expected weight loss. We performed a retrospective chart review of exclusively breastfed infants delivered via cesarean birth at a Baby-Friendly hospital between 2005 and 2007. Average weight loss was calculated, and multivariate regression analysis was performed. Average weight loss during the hospital stay in our cohort of 200 infants was 7.2% ± 2.1% of birth weight, slightly greater than the American Academy of Pediatrics guideline of 7%. Absence of labor prior to delivery was significantly associated with a greater percentage of weight loss (P = .0004), as were lower gestational age (P = .0004) and higher birth weight (P < .0001). Maternal age, gravity, parity, infant sex, Apgar scores, and prior cesarean birth were not significantly associated. We conclude that for exclusively breastfed infants delivered by cesarean birth in a Baby-Friendly hospital, absence of labor prior to cesarean birth may be a previously unreported risk factor for greater than expected weight loss.

Laser power conversion system analysis, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, W. S.; Morgan, L. L.; Forsyth, J. B.; Skratt, J. P.

1979-01-01

The orbit-to-orbit laser energy conversion system analysis established a mission model of satellites with various orbital parameters and average electrical power requirements ranging from 1 to 300 kW. The system analysis evaluated various conversion techniques, power system deployment parameters, power system electrical supplies and other critical supplies and other critical subsystems relative to various combinations of the mission model. The analysis show that the laser power system would not be competitive with current satellite power systems from weight, cost and development risk standpoints.

Genetic parameter estimates among scale activity score and farrowing disposition with reproductive traits in swine.

PubMed

Schneider, J F; Rempel, L A; Rohrer, G A; Brown-Brandl, T M

2011-11-01

The primary objective of this study was to determine if certain behavior traits were genetically correlated with reproduction. If 1 or both of the behavior traits were found to be correlated, a secondary objective was to determine if the behavior traits could be useful in selecting for more productive females. A scale activity score taken at 5 mo of age and a farrowing disposition score taken at farrowing were selected as the behavioral traits. Scale activity score ranged from 1 to 5 and farrowing disposition ranged from 1 to 3. Reproductive traits included age at puberty, number born alive, number born dead, litter birth weight, average piglet birth weight, number weaned, litter weaning weight, average weaning weight, wean-to-estrus interval, ovulation rate including gilts, and postweaning ovulation rate. Genetic correlations between scale activity score and reproduction ranged from -0.79 to 0.61. Three of the correlations, number born alive (P < 0.01), average piglet birth weight (P < 0.001), and wean-to-estrus interval (P = 0.014), were statistically significant but included both favorable and antagonistic correlations. In contrast, all but 1 of the farrowing disposition correlations was favorable and ranged from -0.66 to 0.67. Although only the correlation with litter birth weight was significant (P = 0.018), the consistent favorable direction of all farrowing disposition correlations, except average weaning weight, shows a potential for inclusion of farrowing disposition into a selection program.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Employer Matching of Employees' Monetary Contributions to Deposit Contracts to Promote Weight Loss.

PubMed

Kullgren, Jeffrey T; Troxel, Andrea B; Loewenstein, George; Norton, Laurie A; Gatto, Dana; Tao, Yuanyuan; Zhu, Jingsan; Schofield, Heather; Shea, Judy A; Asch, David A; Pellathy, Thomas; Driggers, Jay; Volpp, Kevin G

2016-07-01

To test whether employer matching of employees' monetary contributions increases employees' (1) participation in deposit contracts to promote weight loss and (2) weight loss. A 36-week randomized trial. Large employer in the northeast United States. One hundred thirty-two obese employees. Over 24 weeks, participants were asked to lose 24 pounds and randomized to monthly weigh-ins or daily weigh-ins with monthly opportunities to deposit $1 to $3 per day that was not matched, matched 1:1, or matched 2:1. Deposits and matched funds were returned to participants for each day they were below their goal weight. Rates of making ≥1 deposit, weight loss at 24 weeks (primary outcome), and 36 weeks. Deposit rates were compared using χ(2) tests. Weight loss was compared using t tests. Among participants eligible to make deposits, 29% made ≥1 deposit and matching did not increase participation. At 24 weeks, control participants gained an average of 1.0 pound, whereas 1:1 match participants lost an average of 5.3 pounds (P = .005). After 36 weeks, control participants gained an average of 2.1 pounds, whereas no match participants lost an average of 5.1 pounds (P = .008). Participation in deposit contracts to promote weight loss was low, and matching deposits did not increase participation. For deposit contracts to impact population health, ongoing participation will need to be higher. © The Author(s) 2016.

[The kangaroo mothers' programme: a simple and cost-effective alternative for protecting the premature newborn or low-birth-weight babies].

PubMed

Lizarazo-Medina, Jenny P; Ospina-Diaz, Juan M; Ariza-Riaño, Nelly E

2012-06-01

Describing the efficacy and achievements of the kangaroo mothers' programme (KMP) regarding preterm or low-birth-weight babies' health and development in Hospital San Rafael in Tunja from November 2007 to December 2009. This was a retrospective observational cohort study; 374 infants born prematurely or having low-birth-weight were included to assess household socio-demographic factors, maternal and obstetric history, delivery characteristics and complications and follow-up until 40 weeks post-conception age. There was a high prevalence of teenage pregnancy (17.5 %) and in women older than 35 years (12.6 %), unwanted pregnancy (40.6 %), low quality and poor availability of food in families, complications such as preeclampsia, infection and premature rupture of membranes, 1,969 grams average birth weight, 2,742.9 grams average weight on discharge and 22 grams average weight gain per day. It was found that KMP methodology substantially improved the mothers' psychological aspects and health status and the newborns' prognosis and led to stabilising body temperature and weight gain rate while decreasing risks of complications and nosocomial infection. It also lowered health care costs and shortened hospital stay.

Prediction of County-Level Corn Yields Using an Energy-Crop Growth Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andresen, Jeffrey A.; Dale, Robert F.; Fletcher, Jerald J.; Preckel, Paul V.

1989-01-01

Weather conditions significantly affect corn yields. while weather remains as the major uncontrolled variable in crop production, an understanding of the influence of weather on yields can aid in early and accurate assessment of the impact of weather and climate on crop yields and allow for timely agricultural extension advisories to help reduce farm management costs and improve marketing, decisions. Based on data for four representative countries in Indiana from 1960 to 1984 (excluding 1970 because of the disastrous southern corn leaf blight), a model was developed to estimate corn (Zea mays L.) yields as a function of several composite soil-crop-weather variables and a technology-trend marker, applied nitrogen fertilizer (N). The model was tested by predicting corn yields for 15 other counties. A daily energy-crop growth (ECG) variable in which different weights were used for the three crop-weather variables which make up the daily ECG-solar radiation intercepted by the canopy, a temperature function, and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration-performed better than when the ECG components were weighted equally. The summation of the weighted daily ECG over a relatively short period (36 days spanning silk) was found to provide the best index for predicting county average corn yield. Numerical estimation results indicate that the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (ET/PET) is much more important than the other two ECG factors in estimating county average corn yield in Indiana.

Inflammatory potential of diet, weight gain, and incidence of overweight/obesity: The SUN cohort.

PubMed

Ramallal, Raúl; Toledo, Estefanía; Martínez, J Alfredo; Shivappa, Nitin; Hébert, James R; Martínez-González, Miguel A; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel

2017-06-01

This study prospectively assessed the association of the inflammatory potential of a diet using the dietary inflammatory index (DII) with average yearly weight changes and incident overweight/obesity. Seven thousand and twenty-seven university graduates with body mass index <25 from the Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra (SUN) cohort were followed up during a median of 8.1 years. The DII, a validated tool based on scientific evidence to appraise the relationship between dietary parameters and inflammatory biomarkers, was used. A validated food-frequency questionnaire was used to assess intake of total energy, food, and nutrients, from which DII scores were calculated at baseline and after 10 years of follow-up. After a median follow-up of 8.1 years, 1,433 incident cases of overweight or obesity were observed. Hazard ratios for overweight/obesity were calculated, including multivariable time-dependent Cox regression models with repeated measures of diet. The hazard ratio for subjects in the highest quartile (most pro-inflammatory diet) was 1.32 (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.60) compared with participants in the lowest quartile (most anti-inflammatory diet), with a significant linear dose-response relationship (P = 0.004). Consistently, increases in average yearly weight gains were significantly associated with proinflammatory diets. A proinflammatory diet was significantly associated with a higher annual weight gain and higher risk of developing new-onset overweight or obesity. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Conversion of calibration curves for accurate estimation of molecular weight averages and distributions of polyether polyols by conventional size exclusion chromatography.

PubMed

Xu, Xiuqing; Yang, Xiuhan; Martin, Steven J; Mes, Edwin; Chen, Junlan; Meunier, David M

2018-08-17

Accurate measurement of molecular weight averages (M¯ n, M¯ w, M¯ z ) and molecular weight distributions (MWD) of polyether polyols by conventional SEC (size exclusion chromatography) is not as straightforward as it would appear. Conventional calibration with polystyrene (PS) standards can only provide PS apparent molecular weights which do not provide accurate estimates of polyol molecular weights. Using polyethylene oxide/polyethylene glycol (PEO/PEG) for molecular weight calibration could improve the accuracy, but the retention behavior of PEO/PEG is not stable in THF-based (tetrahydrofuran) SEC systems. In this work, two approaches for calibration curve conversion with narrow PS and polyol molecular weight standards were developed. Equations to convert PS-apparent molecular weight to polyol-apparent molecular weight were developed using both a rigorous mathematical analysis and graphical plot regression method. The conversion equations obtained by the two approaches were in good agreement. Factors influencing the conversion equation were investigated. It was concluded that the separation conditions such as column batch and operating temperature did not have significant impact on the conversion coefficients and a universal conversion equation could be obtained. With this conversion equation, more accurate estimates of molecular weight averages and MWDs for polyether polyols can be achieved from conventional PS-THF SEC calibration. Moreover, no additional experimentation is required to convert historical PS equivalent data to reasonably accurate molecular weight results. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

HbA1c and Gestational Weight Gain Are Factors that Influence Neonatal Outcome in Mothers with Gestational Diabetes.

PubMed

Barquiel, Beatriz; Herranz, Lucrecia; Hillman, Natalia; Burgos, Ma Ángeles; Grande, Cristina; Tukia, Keleni M; Bartha, José Luis; Pallardo, Luis Felipe

2016-06-01

Maternal glucose and weight gain are related to neonatal outcome in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The aim of this study was to explore the influence of average third-trimester HbA1c and excess gestational weight gain on GDM neonatal complications. This observational study included 2037 Spanish singleton pregnant women with GDM followed in our Diabetes and Pregnancy Unit. The maternal HbA1c level was measured monthly from GDM diagnosis to delivery. Women were compared by average HbA1c level and weight gain categorized into ≤ or > the current Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommendations for body mass index. The differential effects of these factors on large-for-gestational-age birth weight and a composite of neonatal complications were assessed. Women with an average third-trimester HbA1c ≥5.0% (n = 1319) gave birth to 7.3% versus 3.8% (p = 0.005) of large-for-gestational-age neonates and 22.0% versus 16.0% (p = 0.006) of neonates with complications. Women with excess gestational weight gain (n = 299) delivered 12.5% versus 5.2% (p < 0.001) of large-for-gestational-age neonates and 24.7% versus 19.0% (p = 0.022) of neonates with complications. In an adjusted multiple logistic regression analysis among mothers exposed to the respective risk factors, ∼47% and 52% of large-for-gestational-age neonates and 32% and 37% of neonatal complications were potentially preventable by attaining an average third-trimester HbA1c level <5.0% and optimizing gestational weight gain. Average third-trimester HbA1c level ≥5% and gestational weight gain above the IOM recommendation are relevant risk factors for neonatal complications in mothers with gestational diabetes.

Concomitant changes in sleep duration and body weight and body composition during weight loss and 3-mo weight maintenance.

PubMed

Verhoef, Sanne P M; Camps, Stefan G J A; Gonnissen, Hanne K J; Westerterp, Klaas R; Westerterp-Plantenga, Margriet S

2013-07-01

An inverse relation between sleep duration and body mass index (BMI) has been shown. We assessed the relation between changes in sleep duration and changes in body weight and body composition during weight loss. A total of 98 healthy subjects (25 men), aged 20-50 y and with BMI (in kg/m(2)) from 28 to 35, followed a 2-mo very-low-energy diet that was followed by a 10-mo period of weight maintenance. Body weight, body composition (measured by using deuterium dilution and air-displacement plethysmography), eating behavior (measured by using a 3-factor eating questionnaire), physical activity (measured by using the validated Baecke's questionnaire), and sleep (estimated by using a questionnaire with the Epworth Sleepiness Scale) were assessed before and immediately after weight loss and 3- and 10-mo follow-ups. The average weight loss was 10% after 2 mo of dieting and 9% and 6% after 3- and 10-mo follow-ups, respectively. Daytime sleepiness and time to fall asleep decreased during weight loss. Short (≤7 h) and average (>7 to <9 h) sleepers increased their sleep duration, whereas sleep duration in long sleepers (≥9 h) did not change significantly during weight loss. This change in sleep duration was concomitantly negatively correlated with the change in BMI during weight loss and after the 3-mo follow-up and with the change in fat mass after the 3-mo follow-up. Sleep duration benefits from weight loss or vice versa. Successful weight loss, loss of body fat, and 3-mo weight maintenance in short and average sleepers are underscored by an increase in sleep duration or vice versa. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01015508.

76 FR 5518 - Antidumping Proceedings: Calculation of the Weighted Average Dumping Margin and Assessment Rate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-01

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration 19 CFR Part 351 [Docket No. 101130598-1052-02] RIN 0625-AA87 Antidumping Proceedings: Calculation of the Weighted Average Dumping Margin and Assessment Rate in Certain Antidumping Duty Proceedings AGENCY: Import Administration, International Trade...

Defense Sector Consolidation: Will Consolidation Within the Defense Sector Improve the Financial Performance of Defense Contractors While, Simultaneously Yielding Cost Savings to Taxpayers

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

Treaty USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital...a present value using the company’s weighted average cost of capital ( WACC ). Synergy: The Premium for Potential Success For the most part

7 CFR 1951.860 - Interest on loans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Interest on loans. (a) RDLF intermediaries: When the RDLF loan portfolio was transferred from HHS to USDA... Law 103-354 to determine the weighted average of the loan portfolio, the RDLF intermediary will be required to complete a weighted loan average rate on its outstanding portfolio. The schedule prepared for...

Modelling NOX concentrations through CFD-RANS in an urban hot-spot using high resolution traffic emissions and meteorology from a mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Beatriz; Santiago, Jose Luis; Martilli, Alberto; Martin, Fernando; Borge, Rafael; Quaassdorff, Christina; de la Paz, David

2017-08-01

Air quality management requires more detailed studies about air pollution at urban and local scale over long periods of time. This work focuses on obtaining the spatial distribution of NOx concentration averaged over several days in a heavily trafficked urban area in Madrid (Spain) using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. A methodology based on weighted average of CFD simulations is applied computing the time evolution of NOx dispersion as a sequence of steady-state scenarios taking into account the actual atmospheric conditions. The inputs of emissions are estimated from the traffic emission model and the meteorological information used is derived from a mesoscale model. Finally, the computed concentration map correlates well with 72 passive samplers deployed in the research area. This work reveals the potential of using urban mesoscale simulations together with detailed traffic emissions so as to provide accurate maps of pollutant concentration at microscale using CFD simulations.

A geometrical optics approach for modeling aperture averaging in free space optical communication applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuksel, Heba; Davis, Christopher C.

2006-09-01

Intensity fluctuations at the receiver in free space optical (FSO) communication links lead to a received power variance that depends on the size of the receiver aperture. Increasing the size of the receiver aperture reduces the power variance. This effect of the receiver size on power variance is called aperture averaging. If there were no aperture size limitation at the receiver, then there would be no turbulence-induced scintillation. In practice, there is always a tradeoff between aperture size, transceiver weight, and potential transceiver agility for pointing, acquisition and tracking (PAT) of FSO communication links. We have developed a geometrical simulation model to predict the aperture averaging factor. This model is used to simulate the aperture averaging effect at given range by using a large number of rays, Gaussian as well as uniformly distributed, propagating through simulated turbulence into a circular receiver of varying aperture size. Turbulence is simulated by filling the propagation path with spherical bubbles of varying sizes and refractive index discontinuities statistically distributed according to various models. For each statistical representation of the atmosphere, the three-dimensional trajectory of each ray is analyzed using geometrical optics. These Monte Carlo techniques have proved capable of assessing the aperture averaging effect, in particular, the quantitative expected reduction in intensity fluctuations with increasing aperture diameter. In addition, beam wander results have demonstrated the range-cubed dependence of mean-squared beam wander. An effective turbulence parameter can also be determined by correlating beam wander behavior with the path length.

Weight change in a commercial web-based weight loss program and its association with website use: cohort study.

PubMed

Neve, Melinda; Morgan, Philip J; Collins, Clare E

2011-10-12

There is a paucity of information in the scientific literature on the effectiveness of commercial weight loss programs, including Web-based programs. The potential of Web-based weight loss programs has been acknowledged, but their ability to achieve significant weight loss has not been proven. The objectives were to evaluate the weight change achieved within a large cohort of individuals enrolled in a commercial Web-based weight loss program for 12 or 52 weeks and to describe participants' program use in relation to weight change. Participants enrolled in an Australian commercial Web-based weight loss program from August 15, 2007, through May 31, 2008. Self-reported weekly weight records were used to determine weight change after 12- and 52-week subscriptions. The primary analysis estimated weight change using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for all participants who subscribed for 12 weeks and also for those who subscribed for 52 weeks. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using the last observation carried forward (LOCF) method. Website use (ie, the number of days participants logged on, made food or exercise entries to the Web-based diary, or posted to the discussion forum) was described from program enrollment to 12 and 52 weeks, and differences in website use by percentage weight change category were tested using Kruskal-Wallis test for equality of populations. Participants (n = 9599) had a mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 35.7 (9.5) years and were predominantly female (86% or 8279/9599) and obese (61% or 5866/9599). Results from the primary GLMM analysis including all enrollees found the mean percentage weight change was -6.2% among 12-week subscribers (n = 6943) and -6.9% among 52-week subscribers (n = 2656). Sensitivity analysis using LOCF revealed an average weight change of -3.0% and -3.5% after 12 and 52 weeks respectively. The use of all website features increased significantly (P < .01) as percentage weight change improved. The weight loss achieved by 12- and 52-week subscribers of a commercial Web-based weight loss program is likely to be in the range of the primary and sensitivity analysis results. While this suggests that, on average, clinically important weight loss may be achieved, further research is required to evaluate the efficacy of this commercial Web-based weight loss program prospectively using objective measures. The potential association between greater website use and increased weight loss also requires further evaluation, as strategies to improve participants' use of Web-based program features may be required.

Ensemble average theory of gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosravi, Nima

2016-12-01

We put forward the idea that all the theoretically consistent models of gravity have contributions to the observed gravity interaction. In this formulation, each model comes with its own Euclidean path-integral weight where general relativity (GR) has automatically the maximum weight in high-curvature regions. We employ this idea in the framework of Lovelock models and show that in four dimensions the result is a specific form of the f (R ,G ) model. This specific f (R ,G ) satisfies the stability conditions and possesses self-accelerating solutions. Our model is consistent with the local tests of gravity since its behavior is the same as in GR for the high-curvature regime. In the low-curvature regime the gravitational force is weaker than in GR, which can be interpreted as the existence of a repulsive fifth force for very large scales. Interestingly, there is an intermediate-curvature regime where the gravitational force is stronger in our model compared to GR. The different behavior of our model in comparison with GR in both low- and intermediate-curvature regimes makes it observationally distinguishable from Λ CDM .

Developmental Trajectories of Body Mass Index Among Japanese Children and Impact of Maternal Factors during Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Haga, Chiyori; Kondo, Naoki; Suzuki, Kohta; Sato, Miri; Ando, Daisuke; Yokomichi, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Taichiro; Yamagata, Zentaro

2012-01-01

Background The aims of this study were to 1) determine the distinct patterns of body mass index (BMI) trajectories in Japanese children, and 2) elucidate the maternal factors during pregnancy, which contribute to the determination of those patterns. Methodology/Principal Findings All of the children (1,644 individuals) born in Koshu City, Japan, between 1991 and 1998 were followed in a longitudinal study exploring the subjects’ BMI. The BMI was calculated 11 times for each child between birth and 12 years of age. Exploratory latent class growth analyses were conducted to identify trajectory patterns of the BMI z-scores. The distribution of BMI trajectories were best characterized by a five-group model for boys and a six-group model for girls. The groups were named “stable thin,” “stable average,” “stable high average,” “progressive overweight,” and “progressive obesity” in both sexes; girls were allocated to an additional group called “progressive average.” Multinomial logistic regression found that maternal weight, smoking, and skipping breakfast during pregnancy were associated with children included in the progressive obesity pattern rather than the stable average pattern. These associations were stronger for boys than for girls. Conclusions/Significance Multiple developmental patterns in Japanese boys and girls were identified, some of which have not been identified in Western countries. Maternal BMI and some unfavorable behaviors during early pregnancy may impact a child’s pattern of body mass development. Further studies to explain the gender and regional differences that were identified are warranted, as these may be important for early life prevention of weight-associated health problems. PMID:23272187

Cross-shift changes in FEV1 in relation to wood dust exposure: the implications of different exposure assessment methods

PubMed Central

Schlunssen, V; Sigsgaard, T; Schaumburg, I; Kromhout, H

2004-01-01

Background: Exposure-response analyses in occupational studies rely on the ability to distinguish workers with regard to exposures of interest. Aims: To evaluate different estimates of current average exposure in an exposure-response analysis on dust exposure and cross-shift decline in FEV1 among woodworkers. Methods: Personal dust samples (n = 2181) as well as data on lung function parameters were available for 1560 woodworkers from 54 furniture industries. The exposure to wood dust for each worker was calculated in eight different ways using individual measurements, group based exposure estimates, a weighted estimate of individual and group based exposure estimates, and predicted values from mixed models. Exposure-response relations on cross-shift changes in FEV1 and exposure estimates were explored. Results: A positive exposure-response relation between average dust exposure and cross-shift FEV1 was shown for non-smokers only and appeared to be most pronounced among pine workers. In general, the highest slope and standard error (SE) was revealed for grouping by a combination of task and factory size, the lowest slope and SE was revealed for estimates based on individual measurements, with the weighted estimate and the predicted values in between. Grouping by quintiles of average exposure for task and factory combinations revealed low slopes and high SE, despite a high contrast. Conclusion: For non-smokers, average dust exposure and cross-shift FEV1 were associated in an exposure dependent manner, especially among pine workers. This study confirms the consequences of using different exposure assessment strategies studying exposure-response relations. It is possible to optimise exposure assessment combining information from individual and group based exposure estimates, for instance by applying predicted values from mixed effects models. PMID:15377768

Reduction of speckle noise from optical coherence tomography images using multi-frame weighted nuclear norm minimization method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thapa, Damber; Raahemifar, Kaamran; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan

2015-12-01

In this paper, we propose a speckle noise reduction method for spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) images called multi-frame weighted nuclear norm minimization (MWNNM). This method is a direct extension of weighted nuclear norm minimization (WNNM) in the multi-frame framework since an adequately denoised image could not be achieved with single-frame denoising methods. The MWNNM method exploits multiple B-scans collected from a small area of a SD-OCT volumetric image, and then denoises and averages them together to obtain a high signal-to-noise ratio B-scan. The results show that the image quality metrics obtained by denoising and averaging only five nearby B-scans with MWNNM method is considerably better than those of the average image obtained by registering and averaging 40 azimuthally repeated B-scans.

Application of a computer model to predict optimum slaughter end points for different biological types of feeder cattle.

PubMed

Williams, C B; Bennett, G L

1995-10-01

A bioeconomic model was developed to predict slaughter end points of different genotypes of feeder cattle, where profit/rotation and profit/day were maximized. Growth, feed intake, and carcass weight and composition were simulated for 17 biological types of steers. Distribution of carcass weight and proportion in four USDA quality and five USDA yield grades were obtained from predicted carcass weights and composition. Average carcass value for each genotype was calculated from these distributions under four carcass pricing systems that varied from value determined on quality grade alone to value determined on yield grade alone. Under profitable market conditions, rotation length was shorter and carcass weights lighter when the producer's goal was maximum profit/day, compared with maximum profit/rotation. A carcass value system based on yield grade alone resulted in greater profit/rotation and in lighter and leaner carcasses than a system based on quality grade alone. High correlations ( > .97) were obtained between breed profits obtained with different sets of input/output prices and carcass price discount weight ranges. This suggests that breed rankings on the basis of breed profits may not be sensitive to changes in input/output market prices. Steers that were on a grower-stocker system had leaner carcasses, heavier optimum carcass weight, greater profits, and less variation in optimum carcass weights between genotypes than steers that were started on a high-energy finishing diet at weaning. Overall results suggest that breed choices may change with different carcass grading and value systems and postweaning production systems. This model has potential to provide decision support in marketing fed cattle.

Pull out strength calculator for pedicle screws using a surrogate ensemble approach.

PubMed

Varghese, Vicky; Ramu, Palaniappan; Krishnan, Venkatesh; Saravana Kumar, Gurunathan

2016-12-01

Pedicle screw instrumentation is widely used in the treatment of spinal disorders and deformities. Currently, the surgeon decides the holding power of instrumentation based on the perioperative feeling which is subjective in nature. The objective of the paper is to develop a surrogate model which will predict the pullout strength of pedicle screw based on density, insertion angle, insertion depth and reinsertion. A Taguchi's orthogonal array was used to design an experiment to find the factors effecting pullout strength of pedicle screw. The pullout studies were carried using polyaxial pedicle screw on rigid polyurethane foam block according to American society for testing of materials (ASTM F543). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's honestly significant difference multiple comparison tests were done to find factor effect. Based on the experimental results, surrogate models based on Krigging, polynomial response surface and radial basis function were developed for predicting the pullout strength for different combination of factors. An ensemble of these surrogates based on weighted average surrogate model was also evaluated for prediction. Density, insertion depth, insertion angle and reinsertion have a significant effect (p <0.05) on pullout strength of pedicle screw. Weighted average surrogate performed the best in predicting the pull out strength amongst the surrogate models considered in this study and acted as insurance against bad prediction. A predictive model for pullout strength of pedicle screw was developed using experimental values and surrogate models. This can be used in pre-surgical planning and decision support system for spine surgeon. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of total knee arthroplasty on body weight.

PubMed

Lee, Gwo-Chin; Cushner, Fred D; Cannella, Laura Y; Scott, W Norman

2005-03-01

This prospective study quantified the weight change in 20 consecutive patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty. Resected bone, soft tissues, and bone reamings were collected during surgery and weighed using a digital scale at the end of the procedure. Results were compared to the cumulative weights of the prosthesis, bone cement, patellar component, and polyethylene liner. Average weight of the resected bone and soft tissues was 167.71 g for men and 130.13 g for women. Mean weight of the implanted prosthesis and cement used was 509.92 g for men and 422.56 g for women. Men tended to receive a larger-sized prosthesis than women. Overall, the average weight gain as a result of knee arthroplasty was 345.54 g for men and 292.44 g for women. This translates to an insignificant increase in body weight.

The Stagger-grid: A grid of 3D stellar atmosphere models. II. Horizontal and temporal averaging and spectral line formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magic, Z.; Collet, R.; Hayek, W.; Asplund, M.

2013-12-01

Aims: We study the implications of averaging methods with different reference depth scales for 3D hydrodynamical model atmospheres computed with the Stagger-code. The temporally and spatially averaged (hereafter denoted as ⟨3D⟩) models are explored in the light of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) spectral line formation by comparing spectrum calculations using full 3D atmosphere structures with those from ⟨3D⟩ averages. Methods: We explored methods for computing mean ⟨3D⟩ stratifications from the Stagger-grid time-dependent 3D radiative hydrodynamical atmosphere models by considering four different reference depth scales (geometrical depth, column-mass density, and two optical depth scales). Furthermore, we investigated the influence of alternative averages (logarithmic, enforced hydrostatic equilibrium, flux-weighted temperatures). For the line formation we computed curves of growth for Fe i and Fe ii lines in LTE. Results: The resulting ⟨3D⟩ stratifications for the four reference depth scales can be very different. We typically find that in the upper atmosphere and in the superadiabatic region just below the optical surface, where the temperature and density fluctuations are highest, the differences become considerable and increase for higher Teff, lower log g, and lower [Fe / H]. The differential comparison of spectral line formation shows distinctive differences depending on which ⟨3D⟩ model is applied. The averages over layers of constant column-mass density yield the best mean ⟨3D⟩ representation of the full 3D models for LTE line formation, while the averages on layers at constant geometrical height are the least appropriate. Unexpectedly, the usually preferred averages over layers of constant optical depth are prone to increasing interference by reversed granulation towards higher effective temperature, in particular at low metallicity. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgMean ⟨3D⟩ models are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/560/A8 as well as at http://www.stagger-stars.net

Bayesian Cue Integration as a Developmental Outcome of Reward Mediated Learning

PubMed Central

Weisswange, Thomas H.; Rothkopf, Constantin A.; Rodemann, Tobias; Triesch, Jochen

2011-01-01

Average human behavior in cue combination tasks is well predicted by Bayesian inference models. As this capability is acquired over developmental timescales, the question arises, how it is learned. Here we investigated whether reward dependent learning, that is well established at the computational, behavioral, and neuronal levels, could contribute to this development. It is shown that a model free reinforcement learning algorithm can indeed learn to do cue integration, i.e. weight uncertain cues according to their respective reliabilities and even do so if reliabilities are changing. We also consider the case of causal inference where multimodal signals can originate from one or multiple separate objects and should not always be integrated. In this case, the learner is shown to develop a behavior that is closest to Bayesian model averaging. We conclude that reward mediated learning could be a driving force for the development of cue integration and causal inference. PMID:21750717

The effect of job loss on body weight during an economic collapse.

PubMed

Jónsdóttir, Sif; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

2014-07-01

Studies on the relationship between unemployment and body weight show a positive relationship between Body Mass Index (BMI) and unemployment at the individual level, while aggregate unemployment is negatively related to a population's average BMI. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between job loss and changes in body weight following the Icelandic economic collapse of 2008. The analysis relies on a health and lifestyle survey "Heilsa og líðan", carried out by The Public Health Institute of Iceland in the years 2007 and 2009. The sample is a stratified random sample of 9,807 Icelanders between the ages of 18 and 79, with a net response rate of 42.1% for individuals responding in both waves. A linear regression model was used when estimating the relationship between job loss following the economic collapse and changes in body weight. Family income and mental health were explored as mediators. Point estimates indicated that both men and women gain less weight in the event of a job loss relative to those who retained their employment. The coefficients of job loss were only statistically significant for females, but not in the male population. The results from all three models were inconsistent with results from other studies where job loss has been found to increase body weight. However, body weight has been shown to be procyclical, and the fact that the data used were gathered during a severe economic downturn might separate these results from earlier findings.

Genetic Polymorphisms in the Hypothalamic Pathway in Relation to Subsequent Weight Change – The DiOGenes Study

PubMed Central

Ängquist, Lars; Hansen, Rikke D.; van der A, Daphne L.; Holst, Claus; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Jakobsen, Marianne Uhre; Boeing, Heiner; Meidtner, Karina; Palli, Domenico; Masala, Giovanna; Bouatia-Naji, Nabila; Saris, Wim H. M.; Feskens, Edith J. M.; J.Wareham, Nicolas; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Loos, Ruth J. F.

2011-01-01

Background Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes encoding the components involved in the hypothalamic pathway may influence weight gain and dietary factors may modify their effects. Aim We conducted a case-cohort study to investigate the associations of SNPs in candidate genes with weight change during an average of 6.8 years of follow-up and to examine the potential effect modification by glycemic index (GI) and protein intake. Methods and Findings Participants, aged 20–60 years at baseline, came from five European countries. Cases (‘weight gainers’) were selected from the total eligible cohort (n = 50,293) as those with the greatest unexplained annual weight gain (n = 5,584). A random subcohort (n = 6,566) was drawn with the intention to obtain an equal number of cases and noncases (n = 5,507). We genotyped 134 SNPs that captured all common genetic variation across the 15 candidate genes; 123 met the quality control criteria. Each SNP was tested for association with the risk of being a ‘weight gainer’ (logistic regression models) in the case-noncase data and with weight gain (linear regression models) in the random subcohort data. After accounting for multiple testing, none of the SNPs was significantly associated with weight change. Furthermore, we observed no significant effect modification by dietary factors, except for SNP rs7180849 in the neuromedin β gene (NMB). Carriers of the minor allele had a more pronounced weight gain at a higher GI (P = 2×10−7). Conclusions We found no evidence of association between SNPs in the studied hypothalamic genes with weight change. The interaction between GI and NMB SNP rs7180849 needs further confirmation. PMID:21390334

Evaluating the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of low-organic waste at Danish landfills.

PubMed

Mou, Zishen; Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter

2014-11-01

The biochemical methane potential (BMP) is an essential parameter when using first order decay (FOD) landfill gas (LFG) generation models to estimate methane (CH4) generation from landfills. Different categories of waste (mixed, shredder and sludge waste) with a low-organic content and temporarily stored combustible waste were sampled from four Danish landfills. The waste was characterized in terms of physical characteristics (TS, VS, TC and TOC) and the BMP was analyzed in batch tests. The experiment was set up in triplicate, including blank and control tests. Waste samples were incubated at 55°C for more than 60 days, with continuous monitoring of the cumulative CH4 generation. Results showed that samples of mixed waste and shredder waste had similar BMP results, which was in the range of 5.4-9.1 kg CH4/ton waste (wet weight) on average. As a calculated consequence, their degradable organic carbon content (DOCC) was in the range of 0.44-0.70% of total weight (wet waste). Numeric values of both parameters were much lower than values of traditional municipal solid waste (MSW), as well as default numeric values in current FOD models. The sludge waste and temporarily stored combustible waste showed BMP values of 51.8-69.6 and 106.6-117.3 kg CH4/ton waste on average, respectively, and DOCC values of 3.84-5.12% and 7.96-8.74% of total weight. The same category of waste from different Danish landfills did not show significant variation. This research studied the BMP of Danish low-organic waste for the first time, which is important and valuable for using current FOD LFG generation models to estimate realistic CH4 emissions from modern landfills receiving low-organic waste. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change in diet, physical activity, and body weight among young-adults during the transition from high school to college.

PubMed

Wengreen, Heidi J; Moncur, Cara

2009-07-22

The freshmen year of college is likely a critical period for risk of weight gain among young-adults. A longitudinal observational study was conducted to examine changes in weight, dietary intake, and other health-related behaviors among first-year college students (n = 186) attending a public University in the western United States. Weight was measured at the beginning and end of fall semester (August - December 2005). Participants completed surveys about dietary intake, physical activity and other health-related behaviors during the last six months of high school (January - June 2005) in August 2005 and during their first semester of college (August - December 2005) in December 2005. 159 students (n = 102 women, 57 men) completed both assessments. The average BMI at the baseline assessment was 23.0 (standard deviation (SD) 3.8). Although the average amount of weight gained during the 15-week study was modest (1.5 kg), 23% of participants gained > or = 5% of their baseline body weight. Average weight gain among those who gained > or = 5% of baseline body weight was 4.5 kg. Those who gained > or = 5% of body weight reported less physical activity during college than high school, were more likely to eat breakfast, and slept more than were those who did not gain > or = 5% of body weight. Almost one quarter of students gained a significant amount of weight during their first semester of college. This research provides further support for the implementation of education or other strategies aimed at helping young-adults entering college to achieve or maintain a healthy body weight.

The economic benefits of disease triggered early harvest: A case study of pancreas disease in farmed Atlantic salmon from Norway.

PubMed

Pettersen, J M; Rich, K M; Jensen, B Bang; Aunsmo, A

2015-10-01

Pancreas disease (PD) is an important viral disease in Norwegian, Scottish and Irish aquaculture causing biological losses in terms of reduced growth, mortality, increased feed conversion ratio, and carcass downgrading. We developed a bio-economic model to investigate the economic benefits of a disease triggered early harvesting strategy to control PD losses. In this strategy, the salmon farm adopts a PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) diagnostic screening program to monitor the virus levels in stocks. Virus levels are used to forecast a clinical outbreak of pancreas disease, which then initiates a prescheduled harvest of the stock to avoid disease losses. The model is based on data inputs from national statistics, literature, company data, and an expert panel, and use stochastic simulations to account for the variation and/or uncertainty associated with disease effects and selected production expenditures. With the model, we compared the impacts of a salmon farm undergoing prescheduled harvest versus the salmon farm going through a PD outbreak. We also estimated the direct costs of a PD outbreak as the sum of biological losses, treatment costs, prevention costs, and other additional costs, less the costs of insurance pay-outs. Simulation results suggests that the economic benefit from a prescheduled harvest is positive once the average salmon weight at the farm has reached 3.2kg or more for an average Norwegian salmon farm stocked with 1,000,000smolts and using average salmon sales prices for 2013. The direct costs from a PD outbreak occurring nine months (average salmon weight 1.91kg) after sea transfer and using 2013 sales prices was on average estimated at NOK 55.4 million (5%, 50% and 90% percentile: 38.0, 55.8 and 72.4) (NOK=€0.128 in 2013). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the losses from a PD outbreak are sensitive to feed- and salmon sales prices, and that high 2013 sales prices contributed to substantial losses associated with a PD outbreak. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Compressive and shear hip joint contact forces are affected by pediatric obesity during walking

PubMed Central

Lerner, Zachary F.; Browning, Raymond C.

2016-01-01

Obese children exhibit altered gait mechanics compared to healthy-weight children and have an increased prevalence of hip pain and pathology. This study sought to determine the relationships between body mass and compressive and shear hip joint contact forces during walking. Kinematic and kinetic data were collected during treadmill walking at 1 m•s−1 in 10 obese and 10 healthy-weight 8–12 year-olds. We estimated body composition, segment masses, lower-extremity alignment, and femoral neck angle via radiographic images, created personalized musculoskeletal models in OpenSim, and computed muscle forces and hip joint contact forces. Hip extension at mid-stance was 9° less, on average, in the obese children (p<0.001). Hip abduction, knee flexion, and body-weight normalized peak hip moments were similar between groups. Normalized to body-weight, peak contact forces were similar at the first peak and slightly lower at the second peak between the obese and healthy-weight participants. Total body mass explained a greater proportion of contact force variance compared to lean body mass in the compressive (r2=0.89) and vertical shear (perpendicular to the physis acting superior-to-inferior) (r2=0.84) directions; lean body mass explained a greater proportion in the posterior shear direction (r2=0.54). Stance-average contact forces in the compressive and vertical shear directions increased by 41 N and 48 N, respectively, for every kilogram of body mass. Age explained less than 27% of the hip loading variance. No effect of sex was found. The proportionality between hip loads and body-weight may be implicated in an obese child’s increased risk of hip pain and pathology. PMID:27040390

Compressive and shear hip joint contact forces are affected by pediatric obesity during walking.

PubMed

Lerner, Zachary F; Browning, Raymond C

2016-06-14

Obese children exhibit altered gait mechanics compared to healthy-weight children and have an increased prevalence of hip pain and pathology. This study sought to determine the relationships between body mass and compressive and shear hip joint contact forces during walking. Kinematic and kinetic data were collected during treadmill walking at 1ms(-1) in 10 obese and 10 healthy-weight 8-12 year-olds. We estimated body composition, segment masses, lower-extremity alignment, and femoral neck angle via radiographic images, created personalized musculoskeletal models in OpenSim, and computed muscle forces and hip joint contact forces. Hip extension at mid-stance was 9° less, on average, in the obese children (p<0.001). Hip abduction, knee flexion, and body-weight normalized peak hip moments were similar between groups. Normalized to body-weight, peak contact forces were similar at the first peak and slightly lower at the second peak between the obese and healthy-weight participants. Total body mass explained a greater proportion of contact force variance compared to lean body mass in the compressive (r(2)=0.89) and vertical shear (perpendicular to the physis acting superior-to-inferior) (r(2)=0.84) directions; lean body mass explained a greater proportion in the posterior shear direction (r(2)=0.54). Stance-average contact forces in the compressive and vertical shear directions increased by 41N and 48N, respectively, for every kilogram of body mass. Age explained less than 27% of the hip loading variance. No effect of sex was found. The proportionality between hip loads and body-weight may be implicated in an obese child׳s increased risk of hip pain and pathology. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Individualized correction for maternal weight in calculating the risk of chromosomal abnormalities with first-trimester screening data.

PubMed

Merz, E; Thode, C; Eiben, B; Faber, R; Hackelöer, B J; Huesgen, G; Pruggmaier, M; Wellek, S

2011-02-01

In the algorithm developed by the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) Germany designed to evaluate the findings of routine first-trimester screening, the false-positive rate (FPR) was determined for the entire study group without stratification by maternal weight. Based on the data received from the continuous audit we were able to identify an increase in the FPR for the weight-related subgroups of patients, particularly for patients with extremely high body weights. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that the variability of the FPR can be reduced through adjusting the concentrations of free β-HCG and PAPP-A measured in the maternal serum by means of a nonlinear regression function modeling the dependence of these values on maternal weight. The database used to establish a version of the algorithm enabling control of the FPR over the whole range of maternal weight consisted of n = 123 546 pregnancies resulting in the birth of a child without chromosomal anomalies. The group with positive outcomes covered n = 500 cases of trisomy 21 and n = 159 trisomies 13 or 18. The dependency of the serum parameters free β-HCG and PAPP-A on maternal weight was analyzed in the sample of negative outcomes by means of nonlinear regression. The fitted regression curve was of exponential form with negative slope. Using this model, all individual measurements were corrected through multiplication with a factor obtained as the ratio of the concentration level predicted by the model to belong to the average maternal body weight of 68.2 kg, over the ordinate of that point on the regression curve which belongs to the weight actually measured. Subsequently, the totality of all values of free β-HCG and PAPP-A corrected for deviation from average weight were used as input data for carrying out the construction of diagnostic discrimination rules described in our recent paper for a database to which no corrections for over- or under-weight had been applied. This entailed in particular the construction of new reference bands for the corrected biochemical values as the basis for calculating the degree of extremeness (DOE) measures to replace the more traditional MOMs. In the final and most crucial step, stratified FPRs were computed and compared over a set of intervals partitioning the whole range of maternal weight into 18 classes. For the posterior risks of both trisomy 21 and 13 / 18 computed from the weight-corrected database, the use of a cutoff value of 1:150 turned out to be an appropriate choice. For T 21, the overall FPR obtained through comparing the individual risks with this cutoff was found to be 3.51 %. The corresponding proportion of ascertained cases of trisomy 21 detected by means of the new algorithm was 86.2 %. For the trisomy 13 / 18 group, the analogous results were a FPR of 2.07 % and a detection rate (DTR) of 83.0 %, respectively. A comparison between the FPRs obtained for the 18 intervals into which the range of maternal weight had been partitioned, showed the deviation of the strata-specific from the overall FPR to be fairly small: for T 21, the FPR ranged from 2.72 to 4.86 %, and the maximum was found in the group of 87.5 - 95.0 kg. For women with a weight of more than 120 kg, the FPR was only slightly above the FPR for the total sample (3.69 as compared to 3.51 %). Similar results were obtained for the discrimination rule constructed for diagnosing T 13 / 18: here, the minimum FPR (1.17 %) was found for patients weighing more than 120 kg, whereas the maximum (2.66 %) occurred in the interval 75.0 - 77.5 kg. In this study we demonstrated that the new algorithm developed by the FMF Germany to estimate risks for fetal trisomies 21 and 13 / 18 combines very good misclassification rates with a far-reaching stability of the false-positive rate against even extreme deviations from the average maternal weight. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Dynamic Assessment of Water Quality Based on a Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Shiguo; Wang, Tianxiang; Hu, Suduan

2015-01-01

Water quality assessment is an important foundation of water resource protection and is affected by many indicators. The dynamic and fuzzy changes of water quality lead to problems for proper assessment. This paper explores a method which is in accordance with the water quality changes. The proposed method is based on the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) model and combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model with the entropy weight (EW) method. The proposed method was applied to dynamically assess the water quality of Biliuhe Reservoir (Dailan, China). The results show that the water quality level is between levels 2 and 3 and worse in August or September, caused by the increasing water temperature and rainfall. Weights and methods are compared and random errors of the values of indicators are analyzed. It is concluded that the proposed method has advantages of dynamism, fuzzification and stability by considering the interval influence of multiple indicators and using the average level characteristic values of four models as results. PMID:25689998

Dynamic assessment of water quality based on a variable fuzzy pattern recognition model.

PubMed

Xu, Shiguo; Wang, Tianxiang; Hu, Suduan

2015-02-16

Water quality assessment is an important foundation of water resource protection and is affected by many indicators. The dynamic and fuzzy changes of water quality lead to problems for proper assessment. This paper explores a method which is in accordance with the water quality changes. The proposed method is based on the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) model and combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model with the entropy weight (EW) method. The proposed method was applied to dynamically assess the water quality of Biliuhe Reservoir (Dailan, China). The results show that the water quality level is between levels 2 and 3 and worse in August or September, caused by the increasing water temperature and rainfall. Weights and methods are compared and random errors of the values of indicators are analyzed. It is concluded that the proposed method has advantages of dynamism, fuzzification and stability by considering the interval influence of multiple indicators and using the average level characteristic values of four models as results.

Applying a propensity score-based weighting model to interrupted time series data: improving causal inference in programme evaluation.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Adams, John L

2011-12-01

Often, when conducting programme evaluations or studying the effects of policy changes, researchers may only have access to aggregated time series data, presented as observations spanning both the pre- and post-intervention periods. The most basic analytic model using these data requires only a single group and models the intervention effect using repeated measurements of the dependent variable. This model controls for regression to the mean and is likely to detect a treatment effect if it is sufficiently large. However, many potential sources of bias still remain. Adding one or more control groups to this model could strengthen causal inference if the groups are comparable on pre-intervention covariates and level and trend of the dependent variable. If this condition is not met, the validity of the study findings could be called into question. In this paper we describe a propensity score-based weighted regression model, which overcomes these limitations by weighting the control groups to represent the average outcome that the treatment group would have exhibited in the absence of the intervention. We illustrate this technique studying cigarette sales in California before and after the passage of Proposition 99 in California in 1989. While our results were similar to those of the Synthetic Control method, the weighting approach has the advantage of being technically less complicated, rooted in regression techniques familiar to most researchers, easy to implement using any basic statistical software, may accommodate any number of treatment units, and allows for greater flexibility in the choice of treatment effect estimators. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Estimation of genetic parameters for milk yield in Murrah buffaloes by Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Breda, F C; Albuquerque, L G; Euclydes, R F; Bignardi, A B; Baldi, F; Torres, R A; Barbosa, L; Tonhati, H

2010-02-01

Random regression models were used to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk yield in Murrah buffaloes using Bayesian inference. Data comprised 17,935 test-day milk records from 1,433 buffaloes. Twelve models were tested using different combinations of third-, fourth-, fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-order orthogonal polynomials of weeks of lactation for additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. All models included the fixed effects of contemporary group, number of daily milkings and age of cow at calving as covariate (linear and quadratic effect). In addition, residual variances were considered to be heterogeneous with 6 classes of variance. Models were selected based on the residual mean square error, weighted average of residual variance estimates, and estimates of variance components, heritabilities, correlations, eigenvalues, and eigenfunctions. Results indicated that changes in the order of fit for additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects influenced the estimation of genetic parameters. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.19 to 0.31. Genetic correlation estimates were close to unity between adjacent test-day records, but decreased gradually as the interval between test-days increased. Results from mean squared error and weighted averages of residual variance estimates suggested that a model considering sixth- and seventh-order Legendre polynomials for additive and permanent environmental effects, respectively, and 6 classes for residual variances, provided the best fit. Nevertheless, this model presented the largest degree of complexity. A more parsimonious model, with fourth- and sixth-order polynomials, respectively, for these same effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. Therefore, this last model is recommended for routine applications. Copyright 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimum size limits for yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in western Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, Wilbur L.; Nepszy, Stephen J.; Scholl, Russell L.

1980-01-01

During the 1960's yellow perch (Perca flavescens) of Lake Erie supported a commercial fishery that produced an average annual catch of 23 million pounds, as well as a modest sport fishery. Since 1969, the resource has seriously deteriorated. Commercial landings amounted to only 6 million pounds in 1976, and included proportionally more immature perch than in the 1960's. Moreover, no strong year classes were produced between 1965 and 1975. An interagency technical committee was appointed in 1975 by the Lake Erie Committee of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission to develop an interim management strategy that would provide for greater protection of perch in western Lake Erie, where declines have been the most severe. The committee first determined the age structure, growth and mortality rates, maturation schedule, and length-fecundity relationship for the population, and then applied Ricker-type equilibrium yield models to determine the effects of various minimum length limits on yield, production, average stock weight, potential egg deposition, and the Abrosov spawning frequency indicator (average number of spawning opportunities per female). The committee recommended increasing the minimum length limit of 5.0 inches to at least 8.5 inches. Theoretically, this change would increase the average stock weight by 36% and potential egg deposition by 44%, without significantly decreasing yield. Abrosov's spawning frequency indicator would rise from the existing 0.6 to about 1.2.

A geometric construction of the Riemann scalar curvature in Regge calculus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Jonathan R.; Miller, Warner A.

2008-10-01

The Riemann scalar curvature plays a central role in Einstein's geometric theory of gravity. We describe a new geometric construction of this scalar curvature invariant at an event (vertex) in a discrete spacetime geometry. This allows one to constructively measure the scalar curvature using only clocks and photons. Given recent interest in discrete pre-geometric models of quantum gravity, we believe is it ever so important to reconstruct the curvature scalar with respect to a finite number of communicating observers. This derivation makes use of a new fundamental lattice cell built from elements inherited from both the original simplicial (Delaunay) spacetime and its circumcentric dual (Voronoi) lattice. The orthogonality properties between these two lattices yield an expression for the vertex-based scalar curvature which is strikingly similar to the corresponding hinge-based expression in Regge calculus (deficit angle per unit Voronoi dual area). In particular, we show that the scalar curvature is simply a vertex-based weighted average of deficits per weighted average of dual areas.

Measuring the Scalar Curvature with Clocks and Photons: Voronoi-Delaunay Lattices in Regge Calculus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Warner; McDonald, Jonathan

2008-04-01

The Riemann scalar curvature plays a central role in Einstein's geometric theory of gravity. We describe a new geometric construction of this scalar curvature invariant at an event (vertex) in a discrete spacetime geometry. This allows one to constructively measure the scalar curvature using only clocks and photons. Given recent interest in discrete pre-geometric models of quantum gravity, we believe it is ever so important to reconstruct the curvature scalar with respect to a finite number of communicating observers. This derivation makes use of a fundamental lattice cell built from elements inherited from both the original simplicial (Delaunay) spacetime and its circumcentric dual (Voronoi) lattice. The orthogonality properties between these two lattices yield an expression for the vertex-based scalar curvature which is strikingly similar to the corresponding hinge-based expression in Regge Calculus (deficit angle per unit Voronoi dual area). In particular, we show that the scalar curvature is simply a vertex-based weighted average of deficits per weighted average of dual areas.

Creation of the BMA ensemble for SST using a parallel processing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kwangjin; Lee, Yang Won

2013-10-01

Despite the same purpose, each satellite product has different value because of its inescapable uncertainty. Also the satellite products have been calculated for a long time, and the kinds of the products are various and enormous. So the efforts for reducing the uncertainty and dealing with enormous data will be necessary. In this paper, we create an ensemble Sea Surface Temperature (SST) using MODIS Aqua, MODIS Terra and COMS (Communication Ocean and Meteorological Satellite). We used Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) as ensemble method. The principle of the BMA is synthesizing the conditional probability density function (PDF) using posterior probability as weight. The posterior probability is estimated using EM algorithm. The BMA PDF is obtained by weighted average. As the result, the ensemble SST showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, which proves the applicability of BMA for satellite data ensemble. As future work, parallel processing techniques using Hadoop framework will be adopted for more efficient computation of very big satellite data.

A comparison of large-scale climate signals and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) for drought prediction in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lei; Chen, Nengcheng; Zhang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Drought is an extreme natural disaster that can lead to huge socioeconomic losses. Drought prediction ahead of months is helpful for early drought warning and preparations. In this study, we developed a statistical model, two weighted dynamic models and a statistical-dynamic (hybrid) model for 1-6 month lead drought prediction in China. Specifically, statistical component refers to climate signals weighting by support vector regression (SVR), dynamic components consist of the ensemble mean (EM) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) climatic models, and the hybrid part denotes a combination of statistical and dynamic components by assigning weights based on their historical performances. The results indicate that the statistical and hybrid models show better rainfall predictions than NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models, which have good predictability only in southern China. In the 2011 China winter-spring drought event, the statistical model well predicted the spatial extent and severity of drought nationwide, although the severity was underestimated in the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLRYR) region. The NMME-EM and NMME-BMA models largely overestimated rainfall in northern and western China in 2011 drought. In the 2013 China summer drought, the NMME-EM model forecasted the drought extent and severity in eastern China well, while the statistical and hybrid models falsely detected negative precipitation anomaly (NPA) in some areas. Model ensembles such as multiple statistical approaches, multiple dynamic models or multiple hybrid models for drought predictions were highlighted. These conclusions may be helpful for drought prediction and early drought warnings in China.

Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) Personality Profiling and General Weighted Average (GWA) of Nursing Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mallari, Shedy Dee C.; Pelayo, Jose Maria G., III

2017-01-01

The study focused on the investigation of the existing dynamics between the Myers Briggs Type Indicator personality profiling (MBTI), and General Weighted Average (GWA) of nursing students. The participants were 48 college students in Angeles City, Philippines. All the students were administered with the MBTI instrument. Descriptive…

19 CFR 351.106 - De minimis net countervailable subsidies and weighted-average dumping margins disregarded.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false De minimis net countervailable subsidies and... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANTIDUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING DUTIES Scope and Definitions § 351.106 De... practice of disregarding net countervailable subsidies or weighted-average dumping margins that were de...

19 CFR 351.106 - De minimis net countervailable subsidies and weighted-average dumping margins disregarded.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false De minimis net countervailable subsidies and... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANTIDUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING DUTIES Scope and Definitions § 351.106 De... practice of disregarding net countervailable subsidies or weighted-average dumping margins that were de...

7 CFR 800.85 - Inspection of grain in combined lots.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... REGULATIONS Inspection Methods and Procedures § 800.85 Inspection of grain in combined lots. (a) General. The...) Weighted or mathematical average. Official factor and official criteria information shown on a certificate... section, be based on the weighted or mathematical averages of the analysis of the sublots in the lot and...

26 CFR 1.141-15 - Effective dates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... that increases the amount of requirements covered by the contract by reason of a change in the method... section 1301 of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (100 Stat. 2602); and (2)(i) The weighted average maturity of the refunding bonds is longer than— (A) The weighted average maturity of the refunded bonds; or (B) In...

40 CFR 60.493 - Performance test and compliance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... equivalent or alternative method. The owner or operator shall determine from company records the volume of... estimate the volume of coating used at each facility by using the average dry weight of coating, number of... acceptable to the Administrator. (i) Calculate the volume-weighted average of the total mass of VOC per...

30 CFR 203.74 - When will MMS reconsider its determination?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Sulfur General Royalty Relief for Pre-Act Deep Water Leases and for Development and Expansion Projects... as calculated under this paragraph. (1) Your current reference price is a weighted-average of daily... calendar months; (2) Your base reference price is a weighted average of daily closing prices on the NYMEX...

Real Options as a Strategic Management Framework: A Case Study of the Operationally Responsive Space Initiative

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

of the project, and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital ( WACC ). WACC is defined as the after-tax marginal cost of capital (Copeland & Antikarov...Initial Investment t = Life Expectancy of Project (Start =1, to Finish=N) E(FCF) = Expected Free-Cash Flow WACC = Weighted Average Cost of

A Quasi-Steady Lifting Line Theory for Insect-Like Hovering Flight

PubMed Central

Nabawy, Mostafa R. A.; Crowthe, William J.

2015-01-01

A novel lifting line formulation is presented for the quasi-steady aerodynamic evaluation of insect-like wings in hovering flight. The approach allows accurate estimation of aerodynamic forces from geometry and kinematic information alone and provides for the first time quantitative information on the relative contribution of induced and profile drag associated with lift production for insect-like wings in hover. The main adaptation to the existing lifting line theory is the use of an equivalent angle of attack, which enables capture of the steady non-linear aerodynamics at high angles of attack. A simple methodology to include non-ideal induced effects due to wake periodicity and effective actuator disc area within the lifting line theory is included in the model. Low Reynolds number effects as well as the edge velocity correction required to account for different wing planform shapes are incorporated through appropriate modification of the wing section lift curve slope. The model has been successfully validated against measurements from revolving wing experiments and high order computational fluid dynamics simulations. Model predicted mean lift to weight ratio results have an average error of 4% compared to values from computational fluid dynamics for eight different insect cases. Application of an unmodified linear lifting line approach leads on average to a 60% overestimation in the mean lift force required for weight support, with most of the discrepancy due to use of linear aerodynamics. It is shown that on average for the eight insects considered, the induced drag contributes 22% of the total drag based on the mean cycle values and 29% of the total drag based on the mid half-stroke values. PMID:26252657

Performance of Optimally Merged Multisatellite Precipitation Products Using the Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging Scheme Over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yingzhao; Hong, Yang; Chen, Yang; Yang, Yuan; Tang, Guoqiang; Yao, Yunjun; Long, Di; Li, Changmin; Han, Zhongying; Liu, Ronghua

2018-01-01

Accurate estimation of precipitation from satellites at high spatiotemporal scales over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains a challenge. In this study, we proposed a general framework for blending multiple satellite precipitation data using the dynamic Bayesian model averaging (BMA) algorithm. The blended experiment was performed at a daily 0.25° grid scale for 2007-2012 among Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT and 3B42V7, Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). First, the BMA weights were optimized using the expectation-maximization (EM) method for each member on each day at 200 calibrated sites and then interpolated to the entire plateau using the ordinary kriging (OK) approach. Thus, the merging data were produced by weighted sums of the individuals over the plateau. The dynamic BMA approach showed better performance with a smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 6.77 mm/day, higher correlation coefficient of 0.592, and closer Euclid value of 0.833, compared to the individuals at 15 validated sites. Moreover, BMA has proven to be more robust in terms of seasonality, topography, and other parameters than traditional ensemble methods including simple model averaging (SMA) and one-outlier removed (OOR). Error analysis between BMA and the state-of-the-art IMERG in the summer of 2014 further proved that the performance of BMA was superior with respect to multisatellite precipitation data merging. This study demonstrates that BMA provides a new solution for blending multiple satellite data in regions with limited gauges.

[The secular trend in body height and weight in the adult population in the Czech republic].

PubMed

Kopecký, Miroslav; Kikalová, Kateřina; Charamza, Jiří

Secular changes in anthropometric parameters reflect the effect of socio-economic conditions in interaction with other factors on individuals in the course of 100-200 years. The main aim of the research was to determine the average body height and weight for the current adult population of men 19 to 94 years old and women 19 to 86 years old in the Czech Republic, and to compare the average values ​​of body height and weight of the monitored group with the reference values ​​for the adult population observed in our country from 1895 to 2001.Body height and weight were measured with standard anthropometry in 973 men aged 19-94 years and 2,606 women aged 19-86 years. The research was carried out from 2013 to 2015. Statistical tests: t-test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The average body weight and height of the current adult male is 178.58 cm and 80.86 kg, and of adult female 165.99 cm and 65.67 kg. When compared to men, women show significantly lower average height by 12.59 cm and lower weight by 15.19 kg. The results show that men today are about 10.61 cm higher and weigh 9.01 kilograms more than men in 1895. Todays women are about 9.43 centimeters taller, but weigh 0,58 kg less than women of the same age in 1895.Comparison of results from 1895 to 2015 shows that at present there is likely stagnation or decline in the positive secular trend in body height among men and women. The weight of men is increasing while there is stagnation in the body weight of women.

Adjudicating between face-coding models with individual-face fMRI responses

PubMed Central

Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus

2017-01-01

The perceptual representation of individual faces is often explained with reference to a norm-based face space. In such spaces, individuals are encoded as vectors where identity is primarily conveyed by direction and distinctiveness by eccentricity. Here we measured human fMRI responses and psychophysical similarity judgments of individual face exemplars, which were generated as realistic 3D animations using a computer-graphics model. We developed and evaluated multiple neurobiologically plausible computational models, each of which predicts a representational distance matrix and a regional-mean activation profile for 24 face stimuli. In the fusiform face area, a face-space coding model with sigmoidal ramp tuning provided a better account of the data than one based on exemplar tuning. However, an image-processing model with weighted banks of Gabor filters performed similarly. Accounting for the data required the inclusion of a measurement-level population averaging mechanism that approximates how fMRI voxels locally average distinct neuronal tunings. Our study demonstrates the importance of comparing multiple models and of modeling the measurement process in computational neuroimaging. PMID:28746335

The effect of a mindful restaurant eating intervention on weight management in women.

PubMed

Timmerman, Gayle M; Brown, Adama

2012-01-01

To evaluate the effect of a Mindful Restaurant Eating intervention on weight management. Randomized control trial. Greater metropolitan area of Austin, Texas. Women (n = 35) 40-59 years old who eat out at least 3 times per week. The intervention, using 6 weekly 2-hour, small group sessions, focused on reducing calorie and fat intake when eating out through education, behavior change strategies, and mindful eating meditations. Weight, waist circumference, self-reported daily calorie and fat intake, self-reported calories and fat consumed when eating out, emotional eating, diet related self-efficacy, and barriers to weight management when eating out. General linear models examined change from baseline to final endpoint to determine differences in outcomes between the intervention and control group. Participants in the intervention group lost significantly more weight (P =.03), had lower average daily caloric (P = .002) and fat intake (P = .001), had increased diet-related self-efficacy (P = .02), and had fewer barriers to weight management when eating out (P = .001). Mindful Restaurant Eating intervention was effective in promoting weight management in perimenopausal women. Copyright © 2012 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of a Mindful Restaurant Eating Intervention on Weight Management in Women

PubMed Central

Timmerman, Gayle M.; Brown, Adama

2011-01-01

Objective To evaluate the effect of a Mindful Restaurant Eating intervention on weight management. Design Random control trial. Setting Greater metropolitan area of Austin, Texas. Participants Women (n = 35) 40-59 years old who eat out at least 3 times per week. Intervention The intervention, using 6 weekly 2 hour small group sessions, focused on reducing calorie and fat intake when eating out through education, behavior change strategies, and mindful eating meditations. Main Outcome Measures Weight, waist circumference, self-reported daily calorie and fat intake, self-reported calories and fat consumed when eating out, emotional eating, diet related self-efficacy, and barriers to weight management when eating out. Analysis General linear models examined change from baseline to final endpoint to determine differences in outcomes between the intervention and control group. Results Participants in the intervention group lost significantly more weight (P =.03), had lower average daily caloric (P =.002) and fat intake (P =.001), had increased diet related self-efficacy (P =.02), and had fewer barriers to weight management when eating out (P =.001). Conclusions and Implications Mindful Restaurant Eating intervention was effective in promoting weight management in perimenopausal women. PMID:22243980

Analysis of Birth Weights of a Rural Hospital

PubMed Central

Ashtekar, Shyam V; Kulkarni, Madhav B; Sadavarte, Vaishali S; Ashtekar, Ratna S

2010-01-01

Background: Low birth weight remains a major reason behind childhood malnutrition. The NFHS findings show no dent in this problem. Objective: This study was undertaken to explore change in birth weights in a period from 1989 to 2007 and any associations thereof. Materials and Methods: All birth records of a private rural hospital spanning two decades (1989-2007) were analyzed for birth weight, age of mother, gender, birth order of the baby, proportion of pre-term babies and low birth weight babies. Results: No change was observed in the average birth weights (average 2.71 kg) over the period. Although the birth weight shows some expected variance with the age of mother, it was found to have no relation with the baby’s birth order and gender. The low birth weight proportion is about 24% and shows little difference before and after the series midpoint of year 1998. Conclusion: The birth weights have hardly changed in this population in the two decades. PMID:20922101

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers

PubMed Central

Ryckman, Kelli K.; Berberich, Stanton L.; Dagle, John M.

2016-01-01

Background Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. Objective We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. Study Design This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R2) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. Results The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895−0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of infants born small-for-gestational age, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the newborn metabolic model and the recorded gestational age was 1.5 weeks. In contrast, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the model including only newborn weight and the recorded gestational age was 1.9 weeks. The estimated prevalence of preterm birth <37 weeks’ gestation in the subset of infants that were small for gestational age was 18.79% when the model including only newborn weight was used, over twice that of the actual prevalence of 9.20%. The newborn metabolic model underestimated the preterm birth prevalence at 6.94% but was closer to the prevalence based on the recorded gestational age than the model including only newborn weight. Conclusions The newborn metabolic profile, as derived from routine newborn screening markers, is an accurate method for estimating gestational age. In small-for-gestational age neonates, the newborn metabolic model predicts gestational age to a better degree than newborn weight alone. Newborn metabolic screening is a potentially effective method for population surveillance of preterm birth in the absence of prenatal ultrasound measurements or newborn weight. PMID:26645954

Predicting gestational age using neonatal metabolic markers.

PubMed

Ryckman, Kelli K; Berberich, Stanton L; Dagle, John M

2016-04-01

Accurate gestational age estimation is extremely important for clinical care decisions of the newborn as well as for perinatal health research. Although prenatal ultrasound dating is one of the most accurate methods for estimating gestational age, it is not feasible in all settings. Identifying novel and accurate methods for gestational age estimation at birth is important, particularly for surveillance of preterm birth rates in areas without routine ultrasound dating. We hypothesized that metabolic and endocrine markers captured by routine newborn screening could improve gestational age estimation in the absence of prenatal ultrasound technology. This is a retrospective analysis of 230,013 newborn metabolic screening records collected by the Iowa Newborn Screening Program between 2004 and 2009. The data were randomly split into a model-building dataset (n = 153,342) and a model-testing dataset (n = 76,671). We performed multiple linear regression modeling with gestational age, in weeks, as the outcome measure. We examined 44 metabolites, including biomarkers of amino acid and fatty acid metabolism, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and 17-hydroxyprogesterone. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) and the root-mean-square error were used to evaluate models in the model-building dataset that were then tested in the model-testing dataset. The newborn metabolic regression model consisted of 88 parameters, including the intercept, 37 metabolite measures, 29 squared metabolite measures, and 21 cubed metabolite measures. This model explained 52.8% of the variation in gestational age in the model-testing dataset. Gestational age was predicted within 1 week for 78% of the individuals and within 2 weeks of gestation for 95% of the individuals. This model yielded an area under the curve of 0.899 (95% confidence interval 0.895-0.903) in differentiating those born preterm (<37 weeks) from those born term (≥37 weeks). In the subset of infants born small-for-gestational age, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the newborn metabolic model and the recorded gestational age was 1.5 weeks. In contrast, the average difference between gestational ages predicted by the model including only newborn weight and the recorded gestational age was 1.9 weeks. The estimated prevalence of preterm birth <37 weeks' gestation in the subset of infants that were small for gestational age was 18.79% when the model including only newborn weight was used, over twice that of the actual prevalence of 9.20%. The newborn metabolic model underestimated the preterm birth prevalence at 6.94% but was closer to the prevalence based on the recorded gestational age than the model including only newborn weight. The newborn metabolic profile, as derived from routine newborn screening markers, is an accurate method for estimating gestational age. In small-for-gestational age neonates, the newborn metabolic model predicts gestational age to a better degree than newborn weight alone. Newborn metabolic screening is a potentially effective method for population surveillance of preterm birth in the absence of prenatal ultrasound measurements or newborn weight. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation using Bayesian Model Averaging and Generalized Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, F. T.; Li, X.

2006-12-01

Non-uniqueness in parameterization scheme is an inherent problem in groundwater inverse modeling due to limited data. To cope with the non-uniqueness problem of parameterization, we introduce a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to integrate a set of selected parameterization methods. The estimation uncertainty in BMA includes the uncertainty in individual parameterization methods as the within-parameterization variance and the uncertainty from using different parameterization methods as the between-parameterization variance. Moreover, the generalized parameterization (GP) method is considered in the geostatistical framework in this study. The GP method aims at increasing the flexibility of parameterization through the combination of a zonation structure and an interpolation method. The use of BMP with GP avoids over-confidence in a single parameterization method. A normalized least-squares estimation (NLSE) is adopted to calculate the posterior probability for each GP. We employee the adjoint state method for the sensitivity analysis on the weighting coefficients in the GP method. The adjoint state method is also applied to the NLSE problem. The proposed methodology is implemented to the Alamitos Barrier Project (ABP) in California, where the spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity is estimated. The optimal weighting coefficients embedded in GP are identified through the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) where the misfits between the observed and calculated groundwater heads are minimized. The conditional mean and conditional variance of the estimated hydraulic conductivity distribution using BMA are obtained to assess the estimation uncertainty.

Integration of ANFIS, NN and GA to determine core porosity and permeability from conventional well log data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ja'fari, Ahmad; Hamidzadeh Moghadam, Rasoul

2012-10-01

Routine core analysis provides useful information for petrophysical study of the hydrocarbon reservoirs. Effective porosity and fluid conductivity (permeability) could be obtained from core analysis in laboratory. Coring hydrocarbon bearing intervals and analysis of obtained cores in laboratory is expensive and time consuming. In this study an improved method to make a quantitative correlation between porosity and permeability obtained from core and conventional well log data by integration of different artificial intelligent systems is proposed. The proposed method combines the results of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and neural network (NN) algorithms for overall estimation of core data from conventional well log data. These methods multiply the output of each algorithm with a weight factor. Simple averaging and weighted averaging were used for determining the weight factors. In the weighted averaging method the genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine the weight factors. The overall algorithm was applied in one of SW Iran’s oil fields with two cored wells. One-third of all data were used as the test dataset and the rest of them were used for training the networks. Results show that the output of the GA averaging method provided the best mean square error and also the best correlation coefficient with real core data.

The latitude dependence of the variance of zonally averaged quantities. [in polar meteorology with attention to geometrical effects of earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Bell, T. L.; Cahalan, R. F.; Moeng, F. J.

1982-01-01

Geometric characteristics of the spherical earth are shown to be responsible for the increase of variance with latitude of zonally averaged meteorological statistics. An analytic model is constructed to display the effect of a spherical geometry on zonal averages, employing a sphere labeled with radial unit vectors in a real, stochastic field expanded in complex spherical harmonics. The variance of a zonally averaged field is found to be expressible in terms of the spectrum of the vector field of the spherical harmonics. A maximum variance is then located at the poles, and the ratio of the variance to the zonally averaged grid-point variance, weighted by the cosine of the latitude, yields the zonal correlation typical of the latitude. An example is provided for the 500 mb level in the Northern Hemisphere compared to 15 years of data. Variance is determined to increase north of 60 deg latitude.

Sediment Flux of Particulate Organic Phosphorus in the Open Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkhomenko, A. V.; Kukushkin, A. S.

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of the monthly average (weighted average) concentrations of particulate organic phosphorus (PPOM) in the photosynthetic layer, oxycline, redox zone, and H2S zone in the open Black Sea is estimated based on long-term observation data. The suspension sedimentation rates from the studied layers are assessed using model calculations and published data. The annual variation of PPOM sediment fluxes from the photosynthetic layer, oxycline, redox zone, and upper H2S zone to the anaerobic zone of the sea and the correspondingly annual average values are estimated for the first time. A regular decrease in the PPOM annual average flux with depth in the upper active layer is demonstrated. A correlation between the annual average values of PPOM sediment flux from the photosynthetic layer and ascending phosphate flux to this layer is shown, which suggests their balance in the open sea. The results are discussed in terms of the phosphorus biogeochemical cycle and the concept of new and regenerative primary production in the open Black Sea.

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models.

PubMed

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W Paul; Frush, Donald P; Paulson, Erik K; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-21

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDI(vol)-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Dose coefficients in pediatric and adult abdominopelvic CT based on 100 patient models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Li, Xiang; Segars, W. Paul; Frush, Donald P.; Paulson, Erik K.; Samei, Ehsan

2013-12-01

Recent studies have shown the feasibility of estimating patient dose from a CT exam using CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (denoted as h), DLP-normalized-effective dose (denoted as k), and DLP-normalized-risk index (denoted as q). However, previous studies were limited to a small number of phantom models. The purpose of this work was to provide dose coefficients (h, k, and q) across a large number of computational models covering a broad range of patient anatomy, age, size percentile, and gender. The study consisted of 100 patient computer models (age range, 0 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 2-180 kg) including 42 pediatric models (age range, 0 to 16 y.o.; weight range, 2-80 kg) and 58 adult models (age range, 18 to 78 y.o.; weight range, 57-180 kg). Multi-detector array CT scanners from two commercial manufacturers (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare; SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare) were included. A previously-validated Monte Carlo program was used to simulate organ dose for each patient model and each scanner, from which h, k, and q were derived. The relationships between h, k, and q and patient characteristics (size, age, and gender) were ascertained. The differences in conversion coefficients across the scanners were further characterized. CTDIvol-normalized-organ dose (h) showed an exponential decrease with increasing patient size. For organs within the image coverage, the average differences of h across scanners were less than 15%. That value increased to 29% for organs on the periphery or outside the image coverage, and to 8% for distributed organs, respectively. The DLP-normalized-effective dose (k) decreased exponentially with increasing patient size. For a given gender, the DLP-normalized-risk index (q) showed an exponential decrease with both increasing patient size and patient age. The average differences in k and q across scanners were 8% and 10%, respectively. This study demonstrated that the knowledge of patient information and CTDIvol/DLP values may be used to estimate organ dose, effective dose, and risk index in abdominopelvic CT based on the coefficients derived from a large population of pediatric and adult patients.

Model averaging in linkage analysis.

PubMed

Matthysse, Steven

2006-06-05

Methods for genetic linkage analysis are traditionally divided into "model-dependent" and "model-independent," but there may be a useful place for an intermediate class, in which a broad range of possible models is considered as a parametric family. It is possible to average over model space with an empirical Bayes prior that weights models according to their goodness of fit to epidemiologic data, such as the frequency of the disease in the population and in first-degree relatives (and correlations with other traits in the pleiotropic case). For averaging over high-dimensional spaces, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has great appeal, but it has a near-fatal flaw: it is not possible, in most cases, to provide rigorous sufficient conditions to permit the user safely to conclude that the chain has converged. A way of overcoming the convergence problem, if not of solving it, rests on a simple application of the principle of detailed balance. If the starting point of the chain has the equilibrium distribution, so will every subsequent point. The first point is chosen according to the target distribution by rejection sampling, and subsequent points by an MCMC process that has the target distribution as its equilibrium distribution. Model averaging with an empirical Bayes prior requires rapid estimation of likelihoods at many points in parameter space. Symbolic polynomials are constructed before the random walk over parameter space begins, to make the actual likelihood computations at each step of the random walk very fast. Power analysis in an illustrative case is described. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Multi-Trait GWAS and New Candidate Genes Annotation for Growth Curve Parameters in Brahman Cattle

PubMed Central

Crispim, Aline Camporez; Kelly, Matthew John; Guimarães, Simone Eliza Facioni; e Silva, Fabyano Fonseca; Fortes, Marina Rufino Salinas; Wenceslau, Raphael Rocha; Moore, Stephen

2015-01-01

Understanding the genetic architecture of beef cattle growth cannot be limited simply to the genome-wide association study (GWAS) for body weight at any specific ages, but should be extended to a more general purpose by considering the whole growth trajectory over time using a growth curve approach. For such an approach, the parameters that are used to describe growth curves were treated as phenotypes under a GWAS model. Data from 1,255 Brahman cattle that were weighed at birth, 6, 12, 15, 18, and 24 months of age were analyzed. Parameter estimates, such as mature weight (A) and maturity rate (K) from nonlinear models are utilized as substitutes for the original body weights for the GWAS analysis. We chose the best nonlinear model to describe the weight-age data, and the estimated parameters were used as phenotypes in a multi-trait GWAS. Our aims were to identify and characterize associated SNP markers to indicate SNP-derived candidate genes and annotate their function as related to growth processes in beef cattle. The Brody model presented the best goodness of fit, and the heritability values for the parameter estimates for mature weight (A) and maturity rate (K) were 0.23 and 0.32, respectively, proving that these traits can be a feasible alternative when the objective is to change the shape of growth curves within genetic improvement programs. The genetic correlation between A and K was -0.84, indicating that animals with lower mature body weights reached that weight at younger ages. One hundred and sixty seven (167) and two hundred and sixty two (262) significant SNPs were associated with A and K, respectively. The annotated genes closest to the most significant SNPs for A had direct biological functions related to muscle development (RAB28), myogenic induction (BTG1), fetal growth (IL2), and body weights (APEX2); K genes were functionally associated with body weight, body height, average daily gain (TMEM18), and skeletal muscle development (SMN1). Candidate genes emerging from this GWAS may inform the search for causative mutations that could underpin genomic breeding for improved growth rates. PMID:26445451

Multi-Trait GWAS and New Candidate Genes Annotation for Growth Curve Parameters in Brahman Cattle.

PubMed

Crispim, Aline Camporez; Kelly, Matthew John; Guimarães, Simone Eliza Facioni; Fonseca e Silva, Fabyano; Fortes, Marina Rufino Salinas; Wenceslau, Raphael Rocha; Moore, Stephen

2015-01-01

Understanding the genetic architecture of beef cattle growth cannot be limited simply to the genome-wide association study (GWAS) for body weight at any specific ages, but should be extended to a more general purpose by considering the whole growth trajectory over time using a growth curve approach. For such an approach, the parameters that are used to describe growth curves were treated as phenotypes under a GWAS model. Data from 1,255 Brahman cattle that were weighed at birth, 6, 12, 15, 18, and 24 months of age were analyzed. Parameter estimates, such as mature weight (A) and maturity rate (K) from nonlinear models are utilized as substitutes for the original body weights for the GWAS analysis. We chose the best nonlinear model to describe the weight-age data, and the estimated parameters were used as phenotypes in a multi-trait GWAS. Our aims were to identify and characterize associated SNP markers to indicate SNP-derived candidate genes and annotate their function as related to growth processes in beef cattle. The Brody model presented the best goodness of fit, and the heritability values for the parameter estimates for mature weight (A) and maturity rate (K) were 0.23 and 0.32, respectively, proving that these traits can be a feasible alternative when the objective is to change the shape of growth curves within genetic improvement programs. The genetic correlation between A and K was -0.84, indicating that animals with lower mature body weights reached that weight at younger ages. One hundred and sixty seven (167) and two hundred and sixty two (262) significant SNPs were associated with A and K, respectively. The annotated genes closest to the most significant SNPs for A had direct biological functions related to muscle development (RAB28), myogenic induction (BTG1), fetal growth (IL2), and body weights (APEX2); K genes were functionally associated with body weight, body height, average daily gain (TMEM18), and skeletal muscle development (SMN1). Candidate genes emerging from this GWAS may inform the search for causative mutations that could underpin genomic breeding for improved growth rates.

College-Aged Males Experience Attenuated Sweet and Salty Taste with Modest Weight Gain.

PubMed

Noel, Corinna A; Cassano, Patricia A; Dando, Robin

2017-10-01

Background: Human and animal studies report a blunted sense of taste in people who are overweight or obese, with heightened sensitivity also reported after weight loss. However, it is unknown if taste changes concurrently with weight gain. Objective: This study investigated the association of weight gain with changes in suprathreshold taste intensity perception in a free-living population of young adults. Methods: Taste response, anthropometric measures, and diet changes were assessed with a longitudinal study design in first-year college students 3 times throughout the academic year. At baseline, 93 participants (30 males, 63 females) were an average of 18 y old, with a body mass index (in kg/m 2 ) of 21.9. Sweet, umami, salty, sour, and bitter taste intensities were evaluated at 3 concentrations by using the general Labeled Magnitude Scale. Ordinary least-squares regression models assessed the association of weight gain and within-person taste change, adjusting for sex, race, and diet changes. Results: Participants gained an average of 3.9% in weight, ranging from -5.7% to +13.8%. With each 1% increase in body weight, males perceived sweet and salty as less intense, with taste responses decreasing by 11.0% (95% CI: -18.9%, -2.3%; P = 0.015) and 7.5% (95% CI: -13.1%, -1.5%; P = 0.015) from baseline, respectively. Meanwhile, females did not experience this decrement, and even perceived a 6.5% increase (95% CI: 2.6%, 10.5%; P = 0.007) in sour taste with similar amounts of weight gain. Changes in the consumption of meat and other umami-rich foods also negatively correlated with umami taste response (-39.1%; 95% CI: -56.3%, -15.0%; P = 0.004). Conclusions: A modest weight gain is associated with concurrent taste changes in the first year of college, especially in males who experience a decrement in sweet and salty taste. This suggests that young-adult males may be susceptible to taste loss when gaining weight. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Effect of NGA West-2 Predictive Ground Motion Equations on Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jemberie, A. L.

2014-12-01

Individual Predictive Ground Motion Equations (PGMEs) of the NGA West-2 project have been analyzed for possible differences in loss for certain locations in California. Differences between the individual hazard curves are pronounced in the loss results. The differences are more than a factor of 2 for longer return periods between the Gross losses from the individual PGMEs. Similar differences are also found between the Average Annual Losses from the individual PGMEs. This indicates the difficulty in choosing any one of the PGMEs except using the weighted average of them. Comparisons between losses from the 2008 and 2014 models are also reported.

A mass-density model can account for the size-weight illusion

PubMed Central

Bergmann Tiest, Wouter M.; Drewing, Knut

2018-01-01

When judging the heaviness of two objects with equal mass, people perceive the smaller and denser of the two as being heavier. Despite the large number of theories, covering bottom-up and top-down approaches, none of them can fully account for all aspects of this size-weight illusion and thus for human heaviness perception. Here we propose a new maximum-likelihood estimation model which describes the illusion as the weighted average of two heaviness estimates with correlated noise: One estimate derived from the object’s mass, and the other from the object’s density, with estimates’ weights based on their relative reliabilities. While information about mass can directly be perceived, information about density will in some cases first have to be derived from mass and volume. However, according to our model at the crucial perceptual level, heaviness judgments will be biased by the objects’ density, not by its size. In two magnitude estimation experiments, we tested model predictions for the visual and the haptic size-weight illusion. Participants lifted objects which varied in mass and density. We additionally varied the reliability of the density estimate by varying the quality of either visual (Experiment 1) or haptic (Experiment 2) volume information. As predicted, with increasing quality of volume information, heaviness judgments were increasingly biased towards the object’s density: Objects of the same density were perceived as more similar and big objects were perceived as increasingly lighter than small (denser) objects of the same mass. This perceived difference increased with an increasing difference in density. In an additional two-alternative forced choice heaviness experiment, we replicated that the illusion strength increased with the quality of volume information (Experiment 3). Overall, the results highly corroborate our model, which seems promising as a starting point for a unifying framework for the size-weight illusion and human heaviness perception. PMID:29447183

A mass-density model can account for the size-weight illusion.

PubMed

Wolf, Christian; Bergmann Tiest, Wouter M; Drewing, Knut

2018-01-01

When judging the heaviness of two objects with equal mass, people perceive the smaller and denser of the two as being heavier. Despite the large number of theories, covering bottom-up and top-down approaches, none of them can fully account for all aspects of this size-weight illusion and thus for human heaviness perception. Here we propose a new maximum-likelihood estimation model which describes the illusion as the weighted average of two heaviness estimates with correlated noise: One estimate derived from the object's mass, and the other from the object's density, with estimates' weights based on their relative reliabilities. While information about mass can directly be perceived, information about density will in some cases first have to be derived from mass and volume. However, according to our model at the crucial perceptual level, heaviness judgments will be biased by the objects' density, not by its size. In two magnitude estimation experiments, we tested model predictions for the visual and the haptic size-weight illusion. Participants lifted objects which varied in mass and density. We additionally varied the reliability of the density estimate by varying the quality of either visual (Experiment 1) or haptic (Experiment 2) volume information. As predicted, with increasing quality of volume information, heaviness judgments were increasingly biased towards the object's density: Objects of the same density were perceived as more similar and big objects were perceived as increasingly lighter than small (denser) objects of the same mass. This perceived difference increased with an increasing difference in density. In an additional two-alternative forced choice heaviness experiment, we replicated that the illusion strength increased with the quality of volume information (Experiment 3). Overall, the results highly corroborate our model, which seems promising as a starting point for a unifying framework for the size-weight illusion and human heaviness perception.

Relating multifrequency radar backscattering to forest biomass: Modeling and AIRSAR measurement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, Guo-Qing; Ranson, K. Jon

1992-01-01

During the last several years, significant efforts in microwave remote sensing were devoted to relating forest parameters to radar backscattering coefficients. These and other studies showed that in most cases, the longer wavelength (i.e. P band) and cross-polarization (HV) backscattering had higher sensitivity and better correlation to forest biomass. This research examines this relationship in a northern forest area through both backscatter modeling and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data analysis. The field measurements were used to estimate stand biomass from forest weight tables. The backscatter model described by Sun et al. was modified to simulate the backscattering coefficients with respect to stand biomass. The average number of trees per square meter or radar resolution cell, and the average tree height or diameter breast height (dbh) in the forest stand are the driving parameters of the model. The rest of the soil surface, orientation, and size distributions of leaves and branches, remain unchanged in the simulations.

Risk factors associated with Cryptosporidia, Eimeria, and diarrhea in smallholder dairy farms in Mukurwe-ini Sub-County, Nyeri County, Kenya

PubMed Central

Peter, S. G.; Gitau, George K.; Richards, S.; Vanleeuwen, J. A.; Uehlinger, F.; Mulei, C. M.; Kibet, R. R.

2016-01-01

Aim: This study was undertaken to determine the household, calf management, and calf factors associated with the occurrence of Eimeria, Cryptosporidia, and diarrhea in pre-weaned calves reared in smallholder dairy farms in Mukurwe-ini Sub-County of Nyeri County, Kenya. In addition, the study also evaluated factors associated with average daily weight gain in the same pre-weaned calves. Materials and Methods: A total of 112 newborn calves (63 males and 49 females) on 111 farms (1 set of twins) were followed for 2 months between June 2013 and August 2013. Two calves were lost to follow-up. A pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect data on household characteristics and calf management practices in the 111 selected farms. On the first visit to the farm (within 7 days of the birth of the calf), blood samples were collected from the jugular vein to assess the level of maternal immunity acquired by the calf, by determining the serum total protein and selenium concentration. At 4 and 6 weeks of age, fecal samples from the calves were collected to assess the presence of Cryptosporidia and Eimeria oocysts. Every 2 weeks for 2 months, the calves and their environments were examined, their 2-week consumption and health history were recorded, and weights were estimated with a weight tape. Each of the factors was evaluated in a univariable regression model and only those found to be significant (p≤0.20) were included in a multivariable model. Elimination of non-significant factors was done in the multivariable model through a backward elimination procedure so that only those variables which were confounders, and/or significant at (p≤0.05) remained in the final model. Results: About 37% (41/110) of the calves experienced diarrhea at least once during the 2-month study period. The overall period prevalence of Eimeria and Cryptosporidia was 42.7% (47/110) and 13.6% (15/110), respectively. Low serum protein was associated with 1.8 and 2.4 times the odds of Eimeria and Cryptosporidia infections, respectively. Lack of supervision of calf birth and low serum total protein were both associated with 1.3 times the odds of diarrhea incidence. Dirty calf pens, feeding <5 L of milk/day, and infection with Eimeria were associated with 0.105, 0.087, and 0.059 kg, respectively, reduced average daily weight gain of the calves. Conclusion: In the Kenyan context, calf diarrhea risk could be reduced through better supervision of parturition and colostrum provision. Specifically, the risk of Eimeria and Cryptosporidia infections could be reduced by optimizing the passive transfer of immunity to the newborn calves. Average weight gains of calves could be improved by good colostrum provision, pen hygiene, and preventing Eimeria infections. PMID:27651667

Physics-based coastal current tomographic tracking using a Kalman filter.

PubMed

Wang, Tongchen; Zhang, Ying; Yang, T C; Chen, Huifang; Xu, Wen

2018-05-01

Ocean acoustic tomography can be used based on measurements of two-way travel-time differences between the nodes deployed on the perimeter of the surveying area to invert/map the ocean current inside the area. Data at different times can be related using a Kalman filter, and given an ocean circulation model, one can in principle now cast and even forecast current distribution given an initial distribution and/or the travel-time difference data on the boundary. However, an ocean circulation model requires many inputs (many of them often not available) and is unpractical for estimation of the current field. A simplified form of the discretized Navier-Stokes equation is used to show that the future velocity state is just a weighted spatial average of the current state. These weights could be obtained from an ocean circulation model, but here in a data driven approach, auto-regressive methods are used to obtain the time and space dependent weights from the data. It is shown, based on simulated data, that the current field tracked using a Kalman filter (with an arbitrary initial condition) is more accurate than that estimated by the standard methods where data at different times are treated independently. Real data are also examined.

Proportional Feedback Control of Energy Intake During Obesity Pharmacotherapy.

PubMed

Hall, Kevin D; Sanghvi, Arjun; Göbel, Britta

2017-12-01

Obesity pharmacotherapies result in an exponential time course for energy intake whereby large early decreases dissipate over time. This pattern of declining drug efficacy to decrease energy intake results in a weight loss plateau within approximately 1 year. This study aimed to elucidate the physiology underlying the exponential decay of drug effects on energy intake. Placebo-subtracted energy intake time courses were examined during long-term obesity pharmacotherapy trials for 14 different drugs or drug combinations within the theoretical framework of a proportional feedback control system regulating human body weight. Assuming each obesity drug had a relatively constant effect on average energy intake and did not affect other model parameters, our model correctly predicted that long-term placebo-subtracted energy intake was linearly related to early reductions in energy intake according to a prespecified equation with no free parameters. The simple model explained about 70% of the variance between drug studies with respect to the long-term effects on energy intake, although a significant proportional bias was evident. The exponential decay over time of obesity pharmacotherapies to suppress energy intake can be interpreted as a relatively constant effect of each drug superimposed on a physiological feedback control system regulating body weight. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Enhanced Fuzzy-OWA model for municipal solid waste landfill site selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Siti Zubaidah; Ahamad, Mohd Sanusi S.; Yusoff, Mohd Suffian; Abujayyab, Sohaib K. M.

2017-10-01

In Malaysia, the municipal solid waste landfill site is an essential facility that needs to be evaluated as its demand is infrequently getting higher. The increment of waste generation forces the government to cater the appropriate site for waste disposal. However, the selection process for new landfill sites is a difficult task with regard to land scarcity and time consumption. In addition, the complication will proliferate when there are various criteria to be considered. Therefore, this paper intends to show the significance of the fuzzy logic-ordered weighted average (Fuzzy-OWA) model for the landfill site suitability analysis. The model was developed to generalize the multi-criteria combination that was extended to the GIS applications as part of the decision support module. OWA has the capability to implement different combination operators through the selection of appropriate order weight that is possible in changing the form of aggregation such as minimum, intermediate and maximum types of combination. OWA give six forms of aggregation results that have their specific significance that indirectly evaluates the environmental, physical and socio-economic (EPSE) criteria respectively. Nevertheless, one of the aggregated results has shown similarity with the weighted linear combination (WLC) method.

Banana Resistant Starch and Its Effects on Constipation Model Mice

PubMed Central

Wang, Juan; Huang, Ji Hong; Cheng, Yan Feng

2014-01-01

Abstract Banana resistant starch (BRS) was extracted to investigate the structural properties of BRS, its effects on the gastrointestinal transit, and dejecta of normal and experimentally constipated mice. The mouse constipation model was induced by diphenoxylate administration. The BRS administered mice were divided into three groups and gavaged with 1.0, 2.0, or 4.0 g/kg body weight BRS per day. The small intestinal movement, time of the first black dejecta, dejecta granules, weight and their moisture content, body weight, and food intake of mice were studied. Results showed that the BRS particles were oval and spindly and some light cracks and pits were in the surface. The degree of crystallinity of BRS was 23.13%; the main diffraction peaks were at 2θ 15.14, 17.38, 20.08, and 22.51. The degree of polymerization of BRS was 81.16 and the number-average molecular weight was 13147.92 Da, as determined by the reducing terminal method. In animal experiments, BRS at the dose of 4.0 g/kg body weight per day was able to increase the gastrointestinal propulsive rate, and BRS at the doses of 2.0 and 4.0 g/kg body weight per day was found to shorten the start time of defecation by observing the first black dejecta exhaust. However, there were no influences of BRS on the dejecta moisture content, the dejecta granules and their weight, body weight, or daily food intake in mice. BRS was effective in accelerating the movement of the small intestine and in shortening the start time of defecation, but did not impact body weight and food intake. Therefore, BRS had the potential to be useful for improving intestinal motility during constipation. PMID:25046686

SEDFIT-MSTAR: Molecular weight and molecular weight distribution analysis of polymers by sedimentation equilibrium in the ultracentrifuge

PubMed Central

Schuck, Peter; Gillis, Richard B.; Besong, Tabot M.D.; Almutairi, Fahad; Adams, Gary G.; Rowe, Arthur J.; Harding, Stephen E.

2014-01-01

Sedimentation equilibrium (analytical ultracentrifugation) is one of the most inherently suitable methods for the determination of average molecular weights and molecular weight distributions of polymers, because of its absolute basis (no conformation assumptions) and inherent fractionation ability (without the need for columns or membranes and associated assumptions over inertness). With modern instrumentation it is also possible to run up to 21 samples simultaneously in a single run. Its application has been severely hampered because of difficulties in terms of baseline determination (incorporating estimation of the concentration at the air/solution meniscus) and complexity of the analysis procedures. We describe a new method for baseline determination based on a smart-smoothing principle and built into the highly popular platform SEDFIT for the analysis of the sedimentation behavior of natural and synthetic polymer materials. The SEDFIT-MSTAR procedure – which takes only a few minutes to perform - is tested with four synthetic data sets (including a significantly non-ideal system) a naturally occurring protein (human IgG1) and two naturally occurring carbohydrate polymers (pullulan and λ–carrageenan) in terms of (i) weight average molecular weight for the whole distribution of species in the sample (ii) the variation in “point” average molecular weight with local concentration in the ultracentrifuge cell and (iii) molecular weight distribution. PMID:24244936