Fighting fire with fire: estimating the efficacy of wildfire mitigation programs using propensity scores

Treesearch

David T. Butry

2009-01-01

This paper examines the effect wildfire mitigation has on broad-scale wildfire behavior. Each year, hundreds of million of dollars are spent on fire suppression and fuels management applications, yet little is known, quantitatively, of the returns to these programs in terms of their impact on wildfire extent and intensity. This is especially true when considering that...

Coupling of Bayesian Networks with GIS for wildfire risk assessment on natural and agricultural areas of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherb, Anke; Papakosta, Panagiota; Straub, Daniel

2014-05-01

Wildfires cause severe damages to ecosystems, socio-economic assets, and human lives in the Mediterranean. To facilitate coping with wildfire risks, an understanding of the factors influencing wildfire occurrence and behavior (e.g. human activity, weather conditions, topography, fuel loads) and their interaction is of importance, as is the implementation of this knowledge in improved wildfire hazard and risk prediction systems. In this project, a probabilistic wildfire risk prediction model is developed, with integrated fire occurrence and fire propagation probability and potential impact prediction on natural and cultivated areas. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to facilitate the probabilistic modeling. The final BN model is a spatial-temporal prediction system at the meso scale (1 km2 spatial and 1 day temporal resolution). The modeled consequences account for potential restoration costs and production losses referred to forests, agriculture, and (semi-) natural areas. BNs and a geographic information system (GIS) are coupled within this project to support a semi-automated BN model parameter learning and the spatial-temporal risk prediction. The coupling also enables the visualization of prediction results by means of daily maps. The BN parameters are learnt for Cyprus with data from 2006-2009. Data from 2010 is used as validation data set. A special focus is put on the performance evaluation of the BN for fire occurrence, which is modeled as binary classifier and thus, could be validated by means of Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves. With the final best models, AUC values of more than 70% for validation could be achieved, which indicates potential for reliable prediction performance via BN. Maps of selected days in 2010 are shown to illustrate final prediction results. The resulting system can be easily expanded to predict additional expected damages in the mesoscale (e.g. building and infrastructure damages). The system can support planning of preventive measures (e.g. state resources allocation for wildfire prevention and preparedness) and assist recuperation plans of damaged areas.

Examining Atmospheric and Ecological Drivers of Wildfires, Modeling Wildfire Occurrence in the Southwest United States, and Using Atmospheric Sounding Observations to Verify National Weather Service Spot Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauslar, Nicholas J.

This dissertation is comprised of three different papers that all pertain to wildland fire applications. The first paper performs a verification analysis on mixing height, transport winds, and Haines Index from National Weather Service spot forecasts across the United States. The final two papers, which are closely related, examine atmospheric and ecological drivers of wildfire for the Southwest Area (SWA) (Arizona, New Mexico, west Texas, and Oklahoma panhandle) to better equip operational fire meteorologists and managers to make informed decisions on wildfire potential in this region. The verification analysis here utilizes NWS spot forecasts of mixing height, transport winds and Haines Index from 2009-2013 issued for a location within 50 km of an upper sounding location and valid for the day of the fire event. Mixing height was calculated from the 0000 UTC sounding via the Stull, Holzworth, and Richardson methods. Transport wind speeds were determined by averaging the wind speed through the boundary layer as determined by the three mixing height methods from the 0000 UTC sounding. Haines Index was calculated at low, mid, and high elevation based on the elevation of the sounding and spot forecast locations. Mixing height forecasts exhibited large mean absolute errors and biased towards over forecasting. Forecasts of transport wind speeds and Haines Index outperformed mixing height forecasts with smaller errors relative to their respective means. The rainfall and lightning associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM) can vary greatly intra- and inter-annually and has a large impact on wildfire activity across the SWA by igniting or suppressing wildfires. NAM onset thresholds and subsequent dates are determined for the SWA and each Predictive Service Area (PSA), which are sub-regions used by operational fire meteorologists to predict wildfire potential within the SWA, April through September from 1995-2013. Various wildfire activity thresholds using the number of wildfires and large wildfires identified days or time periods with increased wildfire activity for each PSA and the SWA. Self-organizing maps utilizing 500 and 700 hPa geopotential heights and precipitable water were implemented to identify atmospheric patterns contributing to the NAM onset and busy days/periods for each PSA and the SWA. Resulting SOM map types also showed the transition to, during, and from the NAM. Northward and eastward displacements of the subtropical ridge (i.e., four-corners high) over the SWA were associated with NAM onset, and a suppressed subtropical ridge and breakdown of the subtropical ridge map types over the SWA were associated with increased wildfire activity. We implemented boosted regression trees (BRT) to model wildfire occurrence for all and large wildfires for different wildfire types (i.e., lightning, human) across the SWA by PSA. BRT models for all wildfires demonstrated relatively small mean and mean absolute errors and showed better predictability on days with wildfires. Cross-validated accuracy assessments for large wildfires demonstrated the ability to discriminate between large wildfire and non-large wildfire days across all wildfire types. Measurements describing fuel conditions (i.e., 100 and 1000-hour dead fuel moisture, energy release component) were the most important predictors when considering all wildfire types and sizes. However, a combination of fuels and atmospheric predictors (i.e., lightning, temperature) proved most predictive for large wildfire occurrence, and the number of relevant predictors increases for large wildfires indicating more conditions need to align to support large wildfires.

Levoglucosan Levels in Alaskan Ice Cores as a Record of Past Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunham, M. E.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kehrwald, N. M.; Kennedy, J.; Ferris, D. G.

2017-12-01

Glaciers in southeast Alaska are significant contributors to global sea-level rise, and therefore understanding the mechanisms driving their recent mass loss is crucial for predicting future sea-level change. Fire activity in Alaska has increased dramatically during the last decade, adding a potential new source of light-absorbing organic material (soot) to the Juneau Icefield that can reduce albedo and enhance surface melt rates. The goal of this project is to create an accurate record of Alaskan wildfires to understand how Alaskan glacial mass balance is affected by the deposition of organic aerosols from wildfires. Previously, oxalate, ammonia, and potassium ion levels have been used as proxies for past wildfire activity, but these ions all have broader emission sources in addition to wildfires. Here we develop a record of past Alaskan fire events and climate from: (1) levels of a biomass burning indicator, levoglucosan, which only forms when cellulose is burned over 300 °C, (2) major ions including oxalate, ammonia, and potassium; (3) the number and size distribution of particles to quantify trace amounts of soot from wildfires; and (4) stable water isotope ratios as a proxy for past temperature in ice cores. We utilize a total of four shallow ice cores, ranging from 7 to 9 m in length, that were collected by a biogeochemistry team during the Juneau Icefield Research Program (JIRP) in 2016. Complications include our limited understanding of the conservation and degradation of levoglucosan over time or during the firnification process. We hypothesize that particle counts will be correlated with levoglucosan peaks, co-varying with wildfire frequency and temperatures over time. Based on previous work, we also expect to find correlations between levoglucosan and oxalate ion concentrations, even though oxalate ions have sources in addition to wildfire activity.

The effect of personal experience on choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs

Treesearch

Tom Holmes; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John Loomis; Jose Sanchez

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfire protection...

Firewise forever? Voluntary community participation and retention in Firewise programs

Treesearch

Michele Steinberg

2011-01-01

Firewise Communities/USA® is a national program designed to encourage residents of wildfire-prone areas to take action to reduce wildfire risks to their homes and neighborhoods. Residents of homeowner associations and small communities who are interested in improving their wildfire safety work with state forestry and fire professionals and follow a simple,...

The national database of wildfire mitigation programs: state, county and local efforts reduce wildfire risk

Treesearch

Terry Haines; Cheryl Renner; Margaret Reams; James Granskog

2005-01-01

The growth of residential communities within forested areas has increased the danger to life and property from uncontrolled wildfire. In response, states, counties and local governments in the United States have dramatically increased their wildfire mitigation efforts. Policymakers and fire officials are employing a wide range of regulatory and voluntary wildfire risk...

Homebuyers and wildfire risk: a Colorado Springs case study

Treesearch

Patraicia Ann Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

2010-01-01

In recent years, the threat that wildfire poses to homes has received much attention in both the mainstream press and academic literature. However, little is known about how homebuyers consider wildfire risk during the home-purchase process. In the context of a unique wildfire education program, we consider two approaches to examining the relationship between wildfire...

Homebuyers and wildfire risk: A Colorado Springs case study

Treesearch

Patricia Ann Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

2010-01-01

In recent years, the threat that wildfire poses to homes has received much attention in both the mainstream press and academic literature. However, little is known about how homebuyers consider wildfire risk during the home-purchase process. In the context of a unique wildfire education program, we consider two approaches to examining the relationship between wildfire...

New smoke predictions for Alaska in NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, P. M.; Ruminski, M.; Draxler, R.; Kondragunta, S.; Zeng, J.; Rolph, G.; Stajner, I.; Manikin, G.

2009-12-01

Smoke from wildfire is an important component of fine particle pollution, which is responsible for tens of thousands of premature deaths each year in the US. In Alaska, wildfire smoke is the leading cause of poor air quality in summer. Smoke forecast guidance helps air quality forecasters and the public take steps to limit exposure to airborne particulate matter. A new smoke forecast guidance tool, built by a cross-NOAA team, leverages efforts of NOAA’s partners at the USFS on wildfire emissions information, and with EPA, in coordinating with state/local air quality forecasters. Required operational deployment criteria, in categories of objective verification, subjective feedback, and production readiness, have been demonstrated in experimental testing during 2008-2009, for addition to the operational products in NOAA's National Air Quality Forecast Capability. The Alaska smoke forecast tool is an adaptation of NOAA’s smoke predictions implemented operationally for the lower 48 states (CONUS) in 2007. The tool integrates satellite information on location of wildfires with weather (North American mesoscale model) and smoke dispersion (HYSPLIT) models to produce daily predictions of smoke transport for Alaska, in binary and graphical formats. Hour-by hour predictions at 12km grid resolution of smoke at the surface and in the column are provided each day by 13 UTC, extending through midnight next day. Forecast accuracy and reliability are monitored against benchmark criteria for accuracy and reliability. While wildfire activity in the CONUS is year-round, the intense wildfire activity in AK is limited to the summer. Initial experimental testing during summer 2008 was hindered by unusually limited wildfire activity and very cloudy conditions. In contrast, heavier than average wildfire activity during summer 2009 provided a representative basis (more than 60 days of wildfire smoke) for demonstrating required prediction accuracy. A new satellite observation product was developed for routine near-real time verification of these predictions. The footprint of the predicted smoke from identified fires is verified with satellite observations of the spatial extent of smoke aerosols (5km resolution). Based on geostationary aerosol optical depth measurements that provide good time resolution of the horizontal spatial extent of the plumes, these observations do not yield quantitative concentrations of smoke particles at the surface. Predicted surface smoke concentrations are consistent with the limited number of in situ observations of total fine particle mass from all sources; however they are much higher than predicted for most CONUS fires. To assess uncertainty associated with fire emissions estimates, sensitivity analyses are in progress.

Using field data to assess model predictions of surface and ground fuel consumption by wildfire in coniferous forests of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lydersen, Jamie M.; Collins, Brandon M.; Ewell, Carol M.; Reiner, Alicia L.; Fites, Jo Ann; Dow, Christopher B.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Saah, David S.; Battles, John J.

2014-03-01

Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire emissions however can be difficult due to inherent variability in fuel loads and consumption and a lack of field data of fuel consumption by wildfire. We compare a unique set of fuel data collected immediately before and after six wildfires in coniferous forests of California to fuel consumption predictions of the first-order fire effects model (FOFEM), based on two different available fuel characterizations. We found strong regional differences in the performance of different fuel characterizations, with FOFEM overestimating the fuel consumption to a greater extent in the Klamath Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada. Inaccurate fuel load inputs caused the largest differences between predicted and observed fuel consumption. Fuel classifications tended to overestimate duff load and underestimate litter load, leading to differences in predicted emissions for some pollutants. When considering total ground and surface fuels, modeled consumption was fairly accurate on average, although the range of error in estimates of plot level consumption was very large. These results highlight the importance of fuel load input to the accuracy of modeled fuel consumption and GHG emissions from wildfires in coniferous forests.

Using GRACE-Derived Water and Moisture Products as a Predictive Tool for Fire Response in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, N. J.; Jensen, D.; Zajic, B.; Rodell, M.; Reager, J. T., II

2015-12-01

Understanding the relationship between wildfire activity and soil moisture in the United States has been difficult to assess, with limited ability to determine areas that are at high risk. This limitation is largely due to complex environmental factors at play, especially as they relate to alternating periods of wet and dry conditions, and the lack of remotely-sensed products. Recent drought conditions and accompanying low Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) have led to disastrous wildfire outbreaks causing economic loss, property damage, and environmental degradation. Thus, developing a programmed toolset to assess the relationship between soil moisture, which contributes greatly to FMC and fire severity, can establish the framework for determining overall wildfire risk. To properly evaluate these parameters, we used data assimilated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and data from the Fire Program Analysis fire-occurrence database (FPA FOD) to determine the extent soil moisture affects fire activity. Through these datasets, we produced correlation and regression maps at a coarse resolution of 0.25 degrees for the contiguous United States. These fire-risk products and toolsets proved the viability of this methodology, allowing for the future incorporation of more GRACE-derived water parameters, MODIS vegetation indices, and other environmental datasets to refine the model for fire risk. Additionally, they will allow assessment to national-scale early fire management and provide responders with a predictive tool to better employ early decision-support to areas of high risk during regions' respective fire season(s).

Does personal experience affect choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs?

Treesearch

Armando González-Cabán; Thomas P. Holmes; John B. Loomis; José J. Sánchez

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss, and cost. A phone-mail-phone survey was used to collect data from homeowners predominantly living in medium and high wildfire risk communities in Florida. We tested three hypotheses: (1) homeowner...

WIFIRE Data Model and Catalog for Wildfire Data and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altintas, I.; Crawl, D.; Cowart, C.; Gupta, A.; Block, J.; de Callafon, R.

2014-12-01

The WIFIRE project (wifire.ucsd.edu) is building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. WIFIRE may be used by wildfire management authorities in the future to predict wildfire rate of spread and direction, and assess the effectiveness of high-density sensor networks in improving fire and weather predictions. WIFIRE has created a data model for wildfire resources including sensed and archived data, sensors, satellites, cameras, modeling tools, workflows and social information including Twitter feeds. This data model and associated wildfire resource catalog includes a detailed description of the HPWREN sensor network, SDG&E's Mesonet, and NASA MODIS. In addition, the WIFIRE data-model describes how to integrate the data from multiple heterogeneous sources to provide detailed fire-related information. The data catalog describes 'Observables' captured by each instrument using multiple ontologies including OGC SensorML and NASA SWEET. Observables include measurements such as wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity, as well as their accuracy and resolution. We have implemented a REST service for publishing to and querying from the catalog using Web Application Description Language (WADL). We are creating web-based user interfaces and mobile device Apps that use the REST interface for dissemination to wildfire modeling community and project partners covering academic, private, and government laboratories while generating value to emergency officials and the general public. Additionally, the Kepler scientific workflow system is instrumented to interact with this data catalog to access real-time streaming and archived wildfire data and stream it into dynamic data-driven wildfire models at scale.

The economic benefits of wildfire prevention education

Treesearch

L.A. Hermansen-Baez; J.P. Prestemon; D.T. Butry; K.L. Abt; R. Sutphen

2011-01-01

While there are many activities that can limit damages from wildfires, such as firefighting efforts and prescribed burning, wildfire prevention education programs can be particularly beneficial. This was confirmed through a study conducted by the Southern Research Station and the National Institute of Standards and Technology that demonstrated that wildfire prevention...

First Order Fire Effects Model: FOFEM 4.0, user's guide

Treesearch

Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Robert E. Keane; James K. Brown

1997-01-01

A First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) was developed to predict the direct consequences of prescribed fire and wildfire. FOFEM computes duff and woody fuel consumption, smoke production, and fire-caused tree mortality for most forest and rangeland types in the United States. The model is available as a computer program for PC or Data General computer.

Spatiotemporal prediction of fine particulate matter during the 2008 northern California wildfires using machine learning.

PubMed

Reid, Colleen E; Jerrett, Michael; Petersen, Maya L; Pfister, Gabriele G; Morefield, Philip E; Tager, Ira B; Raffuse, Sean M; Balmes, John R

2015-03-17

Estimating population exposure to particulate matter during wildfires can be difficult because of insufficient monitoring data to capture the spatiotemporal variability of smoke plumes. Chemical transport models (CTMs) and satellite retrievals provide spatiotemporal data that may be useful in predicting PM2.5 during wildfires. We estimated PM2.5 concentrations during the 2008 northern California wildfires using 10-fold cross-validation (CV) to select an optimal prediction model from a set of 11 statistical algorithms and 29 predictor variables. The variables included CTM output, three measures of satellite aerosol optical depth, distance to the nearest fires, meteorological data, and land use, traffic, spatial location, and temporal characteristics. The generalized boosting model (GBM) with 29 predictor variables had the lowest CV root mean squared error and a CV-R2 of 0.803. The most important predictor variable was the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Aerosol/Smoke Product (GASP) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), followed by the CTM output and distance to the nearest fire cluster. Parsimonious models with various combinations of fewer variables also predicted PM2.5 well. Using machine learning algorithms to combine spatiotemporal data from satellites and CTMs can reliably predict PM2.5 concentrations during a major wildfire event.

Fire in the Wildland–Urban Interface

Treesearch

Evan Mercer; Wayne Zipperer

2012-01-01

In this chapter we provide an overview of the socio-economic and ecological effects and trends of wildfire in the WUI, methods for assessing wildfire risk in the WUI, approaches to managing the wildfire problem including fuels management, home construction and design, and community action programs. This overview is combined with two case studies analyzing wildfire risk...

Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program: Full-scale testing and demonstration final report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quarles, Stephen, L.; Sindelar, Melissa

2011-12-13

The primary goal of the Wildfire ignition resistant home design(WIRHD) program was to develop a home evaluation tool that could assess the ignition potential of a structure subjected to wildfire exposures. This report describes the tests that were conducted, summarizes the results, and discusses the implications of these results with regard to the vulnerabilities to homes and buildings.

Effect of fire prevention programs on accidental and incendiary wildfires on tribal lands in the United States

Treesearch

Karen L. Abt; David T. Butry; Jeff Prestemon; Samuel Scranton

2015-01-01

Humans cause more than 55% of wildfires on lands managed by the USDA Forest Service and US Department of the Interior, contributing to both suppression expenditures and damages. One means to reduce the expenditures and damages associated with these wildfires is through fire prevention activities, which can include burn permits, public service programs or announcements...

Using field data to assess model predictions of surface and ground fuel consumption by wildfire in coniferous forests of California

Treesearch

Jamie Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Carol Ewell; Alicia Reiner; Jo Ann Fites; Christopher Dow; Patrick Gonzalez; David Saah; John Battles

2014-01-01

Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire...

Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arkle, Robert S.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.

2012-01-01

We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1–3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286–5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Crystal A. Kolden; Alistair M. S. Smith

2016-01-01

Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that...

Identifying Indicators of Behavior Change: Insights from Wildfire Education Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monroe, Martha C.; Agrawal, Shruti; Jakes, Pamela J.; Kruger, Linda E.; Nelson, Kristen C.; Sturtevant, Victoria

2013-01-01

Environmental educators are challenged to document behavior changes, because change rarely depends solely on outcomes of education programs, but on many factors. An analysis of 15 communities in the United States that have increased their preparedness for wildfire allowed us to explore how education programs encouraged individual and community…

Wind adjustment factors for predicting fire behavior in three fuel types in Alaska.

Treesearch

Rodney A. Norum

1983-01-01

Factors for adjusting wind velocities from the 20-foot standard anemometer height down to an average wildfire midflame height (3.5 ft for the fuels studied) are given for exposed, partially sheltered, and sheltered fuels in Alaska. The values are suitable for predicting wildfire behavior.

Fish and fire: Post-wildfire sediment dynamics and implications for the viability of trout populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, B. P.; Czuba, J. A.; Belmont, P.; Budy, P.; Finch, C.

2017-12-01

Episodic events in steep landscapes, such as wildfire and mass wasting, contribute large pulses of sediment to rivers and can significantly alter the quality and connectivity of fish habitat. Understanding where these sediment inputs occur, how they are transported and processed through the watershed, and their geomorphic effect on the river network is critical to predicting the impact on ecological aquatic communities. The Tushar Mountains of southern Utah experienced a severe wildfire in 2010, resulting in numerous debris flows and the extirpation of trout populations. Following many years of habitat and ecological monitoring in the field, we have developed a modeling framework that links post-wildfire debris flows, fluvial sediment routing, and population ecology in order to evaluate the impact and response of trout to wildfire. First, using the Tushar topographic and wildfire parameters, as well as stochastic precipitation generation, we predict the post-wildfire debris flow probabilities and volumes of mainstem tributaries using the Cannon et al. [2010] model. This produces episodic hillslope sediment inputs, which are delivered to a fluvial sediment, river-network routing model (modified from Czuba et al. [2017]). In this updated model, sediment transport dynamics are driven by time-varying discharge associated with the stochastic precipitation generation, include multiple grain sizes (including gravel), use mixed-size transport equations (Wilcock & Crowe [2003]), and incorporate channel slope adjustments with aggradation and degradation. Finally, with the spatially explicit adjustments in channel bed elevation and grain size, we utilize a new population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict the impact and recovery of fish populations in response to these changes in habitat. Our model provides a generalizable framework for linking physical and ecological models and for evaluating the extirpation risk of isolated fish populations throughout the Intermountain West to the increasing threat of wildfire.

Role of buoyant flame dynamics in wildfire spread

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Jack D. Cohen; Jason M. Forthofer; Sara S. McAllister; Michael J. Gollner; Daniel J. Gorham; Kozo Saito; Nelson K. Akafuah; Brittany A. Adam; Justin D. English

2015-01-01

Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively...

Tools to aid post-wildfire assessment and erosion-mitigation treatment decisions

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; Louise E. Ashmun

2013-01-01

A considerable investment in post-fire research over the past decade has improved our understanding of wildfire effects on soil, hydrology, erosion and erosion-mitigation treatment effectiveness. Using this new knowledge, we have developed several tools to assist land managers with post-wildfire assessment and treatment decisions, such as prediction models, research...

Synthesising empirical results to improve predictions of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response

Treesearch

Richard A. Shakesby; John A. Moody; Deborah A. Martin; Pete Robichaud

2016-01-01

Advances in research into wildfire impacts on runoff and erosion have demonstrated increasing complexity of controlling factors and responses, which, combined with changing fire frequency, present challenges for modellers. We convened a conference attended by experts and practitioners in post-wildfire impacts, meteorology and related research, including...

Creation a Geo Big Data Outreach and Training Collaboratory for Wildfire Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altintas, I.; Sale, J.; Block, J.; Cowart, C.; Crawl, D.

2015-12-01

A major challenge for the geoscience community is the training and education of current and next generation big data geoscientists. In wildfire research, there are an increasing number of tools, middleware and techniques to use for data science related to wildfires. The necessary computing infrastructures are often within reach and most of the software tools for big data are freely available. But what has been lacking is a transparent platform and training program to produce data science experts who can use these integrated tools effectively. Scientists well versed to take advantage of big data technologies in geoscience applications is of critical importance to the future of research and knowledge advancement. To address this critical need, we are developing learning modules to teach process-based thinking to capture the value of end-to-end systems of reusable blocks of knowledge and integrate the tools and technologies used in big data analysis in an intuitive manner. WIFIRE is an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for dynamic data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior.To this end, we are openly extending an environment we have built for "big data training" (biobigdata.ucsd.edu) to similar MOOC-based approaches to the wildfire community. We are building an environment that includes training modules for distributed platforms and systems, Big Data concepts, and scalable workflow tools, along with other basics of data science including data management, reproducibility and sharing of results. We also plan to provide teaching modules with analytical and dynamic data-driven wildfire behavior modeling case studies which address the needs not only of standards-based K-12 science education but also the needs of a well-educated and informed citizenry.Another part our outreach mission is to educate our community on all aspects of wildfire research. One of the most successful ways of accomplishing this is through high school and undergraduate student internships. Students have worked closely with WIFIRE researchers on various projects including the development of statistical models of wildfire ignition probabilities for southern California, and the development of a smartphone app for crowd-sourced wildfire reporting through social networks such as Twitter and Facebook.

Wildfire Awareness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallace, Glenda

2002-01-01

Provides information about the Firewise Program whose goal is to assist people to become more fire-aware and better prepared for the effects of wildfire on property. Discusses why there are so many wildfires and what can be done. Includes the Wildland Fire Risk and Hazard Severity Assessment Form. (KHR)

Identifying indicators of behavior change: insights from wildfire education programs

Treesearch

Martha C. Monroe; Shruti Agrawal; Pamela J. Jakes; Linda E. Kruger; Kristen C. Nelson; Victoria Sturtevant

2013-01-01

Environmental educators are challenged to document behavior changes, because change rarely depends solely on outcomes of education programs, but on many factors. An analysis of 15 communities in the United States that have increased their preparedness for wildfire allowed us to explore how education programs encouraged individual and community change. Agency-sponsored...

A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions

Treesearch

Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; Michael Bevers

2015-01-01

Wildfire suppression combines multiple objectives and dynamic fire behavior to form a complex problem for decision makers. This paper presents a mixed integer program designed to explore integrating spatial fire behavior and suppression placement decisions into a mathematical programming framework. Fire behavior and suppression placement decisions are modeled using...

Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

2010-01-01

Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

Predicting wildfire behavior in black spruce forests in Alaska.

Treesearch

Rodney A. Norum

1982-01-01

The current fire behavior system, when properly adjusted, accurately predicts forward rate of spread and flame length of wildfires in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) forests in Alaska. After fire behavior was observed and quantified, adjustment factors were calculated and assigned to the selected fuel models to correct the outputs to...

Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Widlansky, Matthew J; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Stott, Lowell

2017-07-26

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate's response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10-23 and 10-45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.

Predicting the occurrence of wildfires with binary structured additive regression models.

PubMed

Ríos-Pena, Laura; Kneib, Thomas; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Marey-Pérez, Manuel

2017-02-01

Wildfires are one of the main environmental problems facing societies today, and in the case of Galicia (north-west Spain), they are the main cause of forest destruction. This paper used binary structured additive regression (STAR) for modelling the occurrence of wildfires in Galicia. Binary STAR models are a recent contribution to the classical logistic regression and binary generalized additive models. Their main advantage lies in their flexibility for modelling non-linear effects, while simultaneously incorporating spatial and temporal variables directly, thereby making it possible to reveal possible relationships among the variables considered. The results showed that the occurrence of wildfires depends on many covariates which display variable behaviour across space and time, and which largely determine the likelihood of ignition of a fire. The joint possibility of working on spatial scales with a resolution of 1 × 1 km cells and mapping predictions in a colour range makes STAR models a useful tool for plotting and predicting wildfire occurrence. Lastly, it will facilitate the development of fire behaviour models, which can be invaluable when it comes to drawing up fire-prevention and firefighting plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

78 FR 21340 - Information Collection: Annual Wildfire Summary Report

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-10

... Interagency Fire Center, USDA Forest Service, 3833 S. Development Avenue, Boise, ID, 83705. Comments also may... funding requests for the Forest Service State and Private Forestry Cooperative Fire Program. The program... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Information Collection: Annual Wildfire Summary Report...

Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

2014-01-01

Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

Economic analysis of fuel treatments

Treesearch

D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2012-01-01

The economics of wildfire is complicated because wildfire behavior depends on the spatial and temporal scale at which management decisions made, and because of uncertainties surrounding the results of management actions. Like the wildfire processes they seek to manage, interventions through fire prevention programs, suppression, and fuels management are scale dependent...

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling Wildfire Risk on Changing Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burzynski, A. M.; Beavers, A.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) maintains approximately 28 million acres of land across 420 of their largest installations. These sites harbored 425 federally listed Threatened and Endangered species as of 2013, representing a density of rare species that is several times greater than any other land management agency in the U.S. This is a major driver of DoD natural resources policy and many of these species are affected by wildland fire, both positively and negatively. Military installations collectively experience thousands of wildfires per year, and the majority of ignitions are caused by mission and training activities that can be planned to accommodate fire risk. Motivated by the need for accurately modeled wildfire under the unique land-use conditions of military installations and the assessment of risk exposure at installations throughout the U.S., we developed custom, FARSITE-based scientific software that applies a Monte Carlo approach to wildfire risk analysis. This simulation accounts for the dynamics of vegetation and weather over time, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of wildfire ignitions, and can be applied to landscapes up to several million acres in size. The data-driven simulation provides insight that feeds directly into mitigation decision-making and can be used to assess future risk scenarios, both real and hypothetical. We highlight an example of a future scenario comparing wildfire behavior between unmitigated fuels and one in which a prescribed burn program is implemented. The same process can be used for a variety of scenarios including changes in vegetation (e.g. new or altered grazing regimes, extreme weather, or drought) and changes in spatiotemporal ignition probability. The modeling capabilities that we apply to predicting wildfire risk on military lands are also relevant to the greater scientific community for modeling wildland fire in the context of environmental change, historical ecology, or climate change.

Wildfires alter rodent community structure across four vegetation types in southern California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brehme, Cheryl S.; Clark, Denise R.; Rochester, Carlton J.; Fisher, Robert N.

2011-01-01

We surveyed burned and unburned plots across four habitat reserves in San Diego County, California, USA, in 2005 and 2006, to assess the effects of the 2003 wildfires on the community structure and relative abundance of rodent species. The reserves each contained multiple vegetation types (coastal sage scrub, chaparral, woodland, and grassland) and spanned from 250 m to 1078 m in elevation. Multivariate analyses revealed a more simplified rodent community structure in all burned habitats in comparison to unburned habitats. Reduction in shrub and tree cover was highly predictive of changes in post-fire rodent community structure in the burned coastal sage scrub and chaparral habitats. Reduction in cover was not predictive for the less substantially burned woodlands and grasslands, for which we hypothesized that interspecific competition played a greater role in post-fire community structure. Across vegetation types, generalists and open habitat specialists typically increased in relative abundance, whereas closed habitat specialists decreased. We documented significant increases in relative abundance of the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus Wagner) and Dulzura kangaroo rat (Dipodomys simulans Merriam). In contrast, we found significant decreases in relative abundance for the California mouse (Peromyscus californicus Gambel), San Diego pocket mouse (Chaetodipus fallax Merriam), desert woodrat (Neotoma lepida Thomas), and brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii Baird). Currently, our research program involves assessment of whether habitat conservation plans (HCPs) in southern California provide long-term protection to HCP covered species, as well as preserve ecosystem function. The scenario of increased wildfires needs to be incorporated into this assessment. We discuss our results in relation to management and conservation planning under a future scenario of larger and more frequent wildfires in southern California.

Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: A new approach to spatially model wildfire risk potential in central Chile.

PubMed

González, Cristián; Castillo, Miguel; García-Chevesich, Pablo; Barrios, Juan

2018-02-01

A spatial modeling was applied to Chilean wildfire occurrence, through the Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory and considering the 2006-2010 period for the Valparaiso Region (central Chile), a representative area for this experiment. Results indicate strong spatial correlation between documented wildfires and cumulative evidence maps, resulting in a powerful tool for future wildfire risk prevention programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An early warning system to forecast the close of the spring burning window from satellite-observed greenness.

PubMed

Pickell, Paul D; Coops, Nicholas C; Ferster, Colin J; Bater, Christopher W; Blouin, Karen D; Flannigan, Mike D; Zhang, Jinkai

2017-10-27

Spring represents the peak of human-caused wildfire events in populated boreal forests, resulting in catastrophic loss of property and human life. Human-caused wildfire risk is anticipated to increase in northern forests as fuels become drier, on average, under warming climate scenarios and as population density increases within formerly remote regions. We investigated springtime human-caused wildfire risk derived from satellite-observed vegetation greenness in the early part of the growing season, a period of increased ignition and wildfire spread potential from snow melt to vegetation green-up with the aim of developing an early warning wildfire risk system. The initial system was developed for 392,856 km 2 of forested lands with satellite observations available prior to the start of the official wildfire season and predicted peak human-caused wildfire activity with 10-day accuracy for 76% of wildfire-protected lands by March 22. The early warning system could have significant utility as a cost-effective solution for wildfire managers to prioritize the deployment of wildfire protection resources in wildfire-prone landscapes across boreal-dominated ecosystems of North America, Europe, and Russia using open access Earth observations.

A critical assessment of the Burning Index in Los Angeles County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenberg, F.P.; Chang, H.-C.; Keeley, J.E.; Pompa, J.; Woods, J.; Xu, H.

2007-01-01

The Burning Index (BI) is commonly used as a predictor of wildfire activity. An examination of data on the BI and wildfires in Los Angeles County, California, from January 1976 to December 2000 reveals that although the BI is positively associated with wildfire occurrence, its predictive value is quite limited. Wind speed alone has a higher correlation with burn area than BI, for instance, and a simple alternative point process model using wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation and temperature well outperforms the BI in terms of predictive power. The BI is generally far too high in winter and too low in fall, and may exaggerate the impact of individual variables such as wind speed or temperature during times when other variables, such as precipitation or relative humidity, render the environment ill suited for wildfires. ?? IAWF 2007.

Efficient and Equitable Design of Wildfire Mitigation Programs

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Karen L. Abt; Robert Huggett; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2007-01-01

Natural resource economists have addresssed the economic effienciency of expenditures on wildfire mitigation for nearly a century (Gope and Gorte 1979). Beginning with the work of Sparhawk (1925), the theory of efficent wildfire mitigation developed alolng conceptual lines drawn form neoclassical economics. The objective of the traditional least-cost-plus-loss model...

Collaboration in Action: Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)-Current Wildfire Program

EPA Science Inventory

The "Collaboration in Action: US EPA's Office of Research and Develop - Current Wildfire Research Program" was invited by the USDA's US Forest Service's Scientific Executive Committee to provide USFS scientific leadership active and potential future opportunities for co...

Working with neighborhood organizations to promote wildfire preparedness

Treesearch

Holly Johnson Shiralipour; Martha C. Monroe; Michelle Payton

2006-01-01

Several government agencies and other natural resource managers have instituted outreach programs to promote wildfire preparedness in wildland-urban interface (WUI) neighborhoods that complement community-wide efforts. To help these programs become more effective, research was undertaken to gain a better understanding of the role that neighbors and neighborhood...

Using hyperspectral imagery to predict post-wildfire soil water repellency

Treesearch

Sarah A. Lewis; Peter R. Robichaud; Bruce E. Frazier; Joan Q. Wu; Denise Y. M. Laes

2008-01-01

A principal task of evaluating large wildfires is to assess fire's effect on the soil in order to predict the potential watershed response. Two types of soil water repellency tests, the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and the mini-disk infiltrometer (MDI) test, were performed after the Hayman Fire in Colorado, in the summer of 2002 to assess the...

Emergency post-fire rehabilitation treatment effects on burned area ecology and long-term restoration

Treesearch

Peter R. Robichaud; Sarah A. Lewis; Robert E. Brown; Louise E. Ashmun

2009-01-01

The predicted continuation of strong drying and warming trends in the southwestern United States underlies the associated prediction of increased frequency, area, and severity of wildfires in the coming years. As a result, the management of wildfires and fire effects on public lands will continue to be a major land management priority for the foreseeable future....

Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks.

PubMed

Bashari, Hossein; Naghipour, Ali Asghar; Khajeddin, Seyed Jamaleddin; Sangoony, Hamed; Tahmasebi, Pejman

2016-09-01

Identifying areas that have a high risk of burning is a main component of fire management planning. Although the available tools can predict the fire risks, these are poor in accommodating uncertainties in their predictions. In this study, we accommodated uncertainty in wildfire prediction using Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). An influence diagram was developed to identify the factors influencing wildfire in arid and semi-arid areas of Iran, and it was populated with probabilities to produce a BBNs model. The behavior of the model was tested using scenario and sensitivity analysis. Land cover/use, mean annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, elevation, and livestock density were recognized as the main variables determining wildfire occurrence. The produced model had good accuracy as its ROC area under the curve was 0.986. The model could be applied in both predictive and diagnostic analysis for answering "what if" and "how" questions. The probabilistic relationships within the model can be updated over time using observation and monitoring data. The wildfire BBN model may be updated as new knowledge emerges; hence, it can be used to support the process of adaptive management.

Trying not to get burned: understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors.

PubMed

Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A; Flores, Nicholas

2012-12-01

Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.

An analytical method for predicting postwildfire peak discharges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.

2012-01-01

An analytical method presented here that predicts postwildfire peak discharge was developed from analysis of paired rainfall and runoff measurements collected from selected burned basins. Data were collected from 19 mountainous basins burned by eight wildfires in different hydroclimatic regimes in the western United States (California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and South Dakota). Most of the data were collected for the year of the wildfire and for 3 to 4 years after the wildfire. These data provide some estimate of the changes with time of postwildfire peak discharges, which are known to be transient but have received little documentation. The only required inputs for the analytical method are the burned area and a quantitative measure of soil burn severity (change in the normalized burn ratio), which is derived from Landsat reflectance data and is available from either the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service or the U.S. Geological Survey. The method predicts the postwildfire peak discharge per unit burned area for the year of a wildfire, the first year after a wildfire, and the second year after a wildfire. It can be used at three levels of information depending on the data available to the user; each subsequent level requires either more data or more processing of the data. Level 1 requires only the burned area. Level 2 requires the burned area and the basin average value of the change in the normalized burn ratio. Level 3 requires the burned area and the calculation of the hydraulic functional connectivity, which is a variable that incorporates the sequence of soil burn severity along hillslope flow paths within the burned basin. Measurements indicate that the unit peak discharge response increases abruptly when the 30-minute maximum rainfall intensity is greater than about 5 millimeters per hour (0.2 inches per hour). This threshold may relate to a change in runoff generation from saturated-excess to infiltration-excess overland flow. The threshold value was about 7.6 millimeters per hour for the year of the wildfire and the first year after the wildfire, and it was about 11.1 millimeters per hour for the second year after the wildfire.

Using and improving social capital to increase community preparedness for wildfire

Treesearch

Shruti Agrawal; Martha C. Monroe

2006-01-01

Communities with more social capital are better able to work together to cope with problems such as a wildfire threat. This study found a positive relationship between perceiving greater social capital and participating in wildfire preparedness educational programs. Results suggest that managers can take advantage of existing social capital in communities to improve...

WILDFIRE IGNITION RESISTANCE ESTIMATOR WIZARD SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT REPORT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, M.; Robinson, C.; Gupta, N.

2012-10-10

This report describes the development of a software tool, entitled “WildFire Ignition Resistance Estimator Wizard” (WildFIRE Wizard, Version 2.10). This software was developed within the Wildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program, sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Infrastructure Protection & Disaster Management Division. WildFIRE Wizard is a tool that enables homeowners to take preventive actions that will reduce their home’s vulnerability to wildfire ignition sources (i.e., embers, radiant heat, and direct flame impingement) well in advance of a wildfire event. This report describes the development of the software, its operation, its technicalmore » basis and calculations, and steps taken to verify its performance.« less

Allocating Fire Mitigation Funds on the Basis of the Predicted Probabilities of Forest Wildfire

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Krista M. Gebert; R. James Barbour; Susan L. Odell; Steven C. Yaddof

2005-01-01

A logistic regression model was used with map-based information to predict the probability of forest fire for forested areas of the United States. Model parameters were estimated using a digital layer depicting the locations of wildfires and satellite imagery depicting thermal hotspots. The area of the United States in the upper 50th percentile with respect to...

Post-wildfire recovery of water yield in the Sydney Basin water supply catchments: An assessment of the 2001/2002 wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heath, J. T.; Chafer, C. J.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Bishop, T. F. A.

2014-11-01

Wildfire is a recurring event which has been acknowledged by the literature to impact the hydrological cycle of a catchment. Hence, wildfire may have a significant impact on water yield levels within a catchment. In Australia, studies of the effect of fire on water yield have been limited to obligate seeder vegetation communities. These communities regenerate from seed banks in the ground or within woody fruits and are generally activated by fire. In contrast, the Sydney Basin is dominated by obligate resprouter communities. These communities regenerate from fire resistant buds found on the plant and are generally found in regions where wildfire is a regular occurrence. The 2001/2002 wildfires in the Sydney Basin provided an opportunity to investigate the impacts of wildfire on water yield in a number of catchments dominated by obligate resprouting communities. The overall aim of this study was to investigate whether there was a difference in water yield post-wildfire. Four burnt subcatchments and 3 control subcatchments were assessed. A general additive model was calibrated using pre-wildfire data and then used to predict post-wildfire water yield using post-wildfire data. The model errors were analysed and it was found that the errors for all subcatchments showed similar trends for the post-wildfire period. This finding demonstrates that wildfires within the Sydney Basin have no significant medium-term impact on water yield.

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

The value of fuel management in reducing wildfire damage

Treesearch

Kenneth W. Outcalt; Dale D. Wade

2000-01-01

The objective of this study was to test the effectiveness of a regular prescribed burning program to reduce mortality of southern pines when forests are burned by wildfire. The study was installed on the Osceola National Forest in where about 10,000 ha of flatwoods forest type was burned by arson set wildfires under extreme conditions in June 1998. Stands within the...

Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: What motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Bruce Shindler

2011-01-01

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes...

Locating Spatial Variation in the Association Between Wildland Fire Risk and Social Vulnerability Across Six Southern States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poudyal, Neelam C.; Johnson-Gaither, Cassandra; Goodrick, Scott; Bowker, J. M.; Gan, Jianbang

2012-03-01

Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account for 93% of all wildfires fires in the South. Coexisting with newly arrived, affluent WUI populations are working class, poor or otherwise socially vulnerable populations. The latter groups typically experience greater losses from environmental disasters such as wildfire because lower income residents are less likely to have established mitigation programs in place to help absorb loss. We use geographically weighted regression to examine spatial variation in the association between social vulnerability (SOVUL) and wildfire risk. In doing so, we identify "hot spots" or geographical clusters where SOVUL varies positively with wildfire risk across six Southern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. These clusters may or may not be located in the WUI. These hot spots are most prevalent in South Carolina and Florida. Identification of these population clusters can aid wildfire managers in deciding which communities to prioritize for mitigation programming.

Simulating wildfire spread behavior between two NASA Active Fire data timeframes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, B.; Hodza, P.; Xu, C.; Minckley, T. A.

2017-12-01

Although NASA's Active Fire dataset is considered valuable in mapping the spatial distribution and extent of wildfires across the world, the data is only available at approximately 12-hour time intervals, creating uncertainties and risks associated with fire spread and behavior between the two Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Satellite (VIIRS) data collection timeframes. Our study seeks to close the information gap for the United States by using the latest Active Fire data collected for instance around 0130 hours as an ignition source and critical inputs to a wildfire model by uniquely incorporating forecasted and real-time weather conditions for predicting fire perimeter at the next 12 hour reporting time (i.e. around 1330 hours). The model ingests highly dynamic variables such as fuel moisture, temperature, relative humidity, wind among others, and prompts a Monte Carlo simulation exercise that uses a varying range of possible values for evaluating all possible wildfire behaviors. The Monte Carlo simulation implemented in this model provides a measure of the relative wildfire risk levels at various locations based on the number of times those sites are intersected by simulated fire perimeters. Model calibration is achieved using data at next reporting time (i.e. after 12 hours) to enhance the predictive quality at further time steps. While initial results indicate that the calibrated model can predict the overall geometry and direction of wildland fire spread, the model seems to over-predict the sizes of most fire perimeters possibly due to unaccounted fire suppression activities. Nonetheless, the results of this study show great promise in aiding wildland fire tracking, fighting and risk management.

Overview and Evaluation of a Smoke Modeling System and other Tools used during Wildfire Incident Deployments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ONeill, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.; Martinez, M.; Rorig, M.; Solomon, R. C.; Dubowy, J.; Lahm, P. W.

2017-12-01

Specialists operationally deployed to wildfires to forecast expected smoke conditions for the public use many tools and information. These Air Resource Advisors (ARAs) are deployed as part of the Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program (WFAQRP) and rely on smoke models, monitoring data, meteorological information, and satellite information to produce daily Smoke Outlooks for a region impacted by smoke from wildfires. These Smoke Outlooks are distributed to air quality and health agencies, published online via smoke blogs and other social media, and distributed by the Incident Public Information Officer (PIO), and ultimately to the public. Fundamental to these operations are smoke modeling systems such as the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, which combines fire activity information, mapped fuel loadings, consumption and emissions models, and air quality/dispersion models such as HYSPLIT to produce predictions of PM2.5 concentrations downwind of wildland fires. Performance of this system at a variety of meteorological resolutions, fire initialization information, and vertical allocation of emissions is evaluated for the Summer of 2015 when over 400,000 hectares burned in the northwestern US state of Washington and 1-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations exceeded 700 μg/m3. The performance of the system at the 12-km, 4-km, and 1.33-km resolutions is evaluated using 1-hr average PM2.5 measurements from permanent monitors and temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires by ARAs on wildfire incident command teams. At the higher meteorological resolution (1.33-km) the terrain features are more detailed, showing better valley structures and in general, PM2.5 concentrations were greater in the valleys with the 1.33-km meteorological domain than with the 4-km domain.

Minority households’ willingness to pay for public and private wildfire risk reduction in Florida

Treesearch

Armando González-Cabán; José J. Sánchez

2017-01-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk-reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class model allowed us to determine if there is a difference in wildfire...

Using Haines Index coupled with fire weather model predicted from high resolution LAM forecasts to asses wildfire extreme behaviour in Southern Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaetani, Francesco; Baptiste Filippi, Jean; Simeoni, Albert; D'Andrea, Mirko

2010-05-01

Haines Index (HI) was developed by USDA Forest Service to measure the atmosphere's contribution to the growth potential of a wildfire. The Haines Index combines two atmospheric factors that are known to have an effect on wildfires: Stability and Dryness. As operational tools, HI proved its ability to predict plume dominated high intensity wildfires. However, since HI does not take into account the fuel continuity, composition and moisture conditions and the effects of wind and topography on fire behaviour, its use as forecasting tool should be carefully considered. In this work we propose the use of HI, predicted from HR Limited Area Model forecasts, coupled with a Fire Weather model (i.e., RISICO system) fully operational in Italy since 2003. RISICO is based on dynamic models able to represent in space and in time the effects that environment and vegetal physiology have on fuels and, in turn, on the potential behaviour of wildfires. The system automatically acquires from remote databases a thorough data-set of input information both of in situ and spatial nature. Meteorological observations, radar data, Limited Area Model weather forecasts, EO data, and fuel data are managed by a Unified Interface able to process a wide set of different data. Specific semi-physical models are used in the system to simulate the dynamics of the fuels (load and moisture contents of dead and live fuel) and the potential fire behaviour (rate of spread and linear intensity). A preliminary validation of this approach will be provided with reference to Sardinia and Corsica Islands, two major islands of the Mediterranean See frequently affected by extreme plume dominated wildfires. A time series of about 3000 wildfires burnt in Sardinia and Corsica in 2007 and 2008 will be used to evaluate the capability of HI coupled with the outputs of the Fire Weather model to forecast the actual risk in time and in space.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Agencies, Educators, Communities and Wildfire: Partnerships to Enhance Environmental Education for Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monroe, Martha C.; Ballard, Heidi L.; Oxarart, Annie; Sturtevant, Victoria E.; Jakes, Pamela J.; Evans, Emily R.

2016-01-01

We studied seven programs that engage youth from 10 to 18 years old in wildfire risk reduction in their communities in the United States through in-depth interviews to examine the nature and role of community-school partnerships in resource-focused environmental education. While the programs use a variety of strategies, from Scout badge to summer…

A chance-constrained programming model to allocate wildfire initial attack resources for a fire season

Treesearch

Yu Wei; Michael Bevers; Erin Belval; Benjamin Bird

2015-01-01

This research developed a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to support wildfire initial attack resource acquisition and location on a planning unit for a fire season. Fire growth constraints account for the interaction between fire perimeter growth and construction to prevent overestimation of resource requirements. We used this model to examine...

Agencies, educators, communities and wildfire: partnerships to enhance environmental education for youth

Treesearch

Martha C. Monroe; Heidi L. Ballard; Annie Oxarart; Victoria E. Sturtevant; Pamela J. Jakes; Emily R. Evans

2015-01-01

We studied seven programs that engage youth from 10 to 18 years old in wildfire risk reduction in their communities in the United States through in-depth interviews to examine the nature and role of community-school partnerships in resource-focused environmental education. While the programs use a variety of strategies, from Scout badge to summer school, they exhibit...

Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Dool, G.

2017-11-01

This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

Does Wildfire Open a Policy Window? Local Government and Community Adaptation After Fire in the United States.

PubMed

Mockrin, Miranda H; Fishler, Hillary K; Stewart, Susan I

2018-05-15

Becoming a fire adapted community that can coexist with wildfire is envisioned as a continuous, iterative process of adaptation, but it is unclear how communities may pursue adaptation. Experience with wildfire and other natural hazards suggests that disasters may open a "window of opportunity" leading to local government policy changes. We examined how destructive wildfire affected progress toward becoming fire adapted in eight locations in the United States. We found that community-level adaptation following destructive fires is most common where destructive wildfire is novel and there is already government capacity and investment in wildfire regulation and land use planning. External funding, staff capacity, and the presence of issue champions combined to bring about change after wildfire. Locations with long histories of destructive wildfire, extensive previous investment in formal wildfire regulation and mitigation, or little government and community capacity to manage wildfire saw fewer changes. Across diverse settings, communities consistently used the most common tools and actions for wildfire mitigation and planning. Nearly all sites reported changes in wildfire suppression, emergency response, and hazard planning documents. Expansion in voluntary education and outreach programs to increase defensible space was also common, occurring in half of our sites, but land use planning and regulations remained largely unchanged. Adaptation at the community and local governmental level therefore may not axiomatically follow from each wildfire incident, nor easily incorporate formal approaches to minimizing land use and development in hazardous environments, but in many sites wildfire was a focusing event that inspired reflection and adaptation.

Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.

PREDICTING RISKS OF UNCHARACTERISTIC WILDFIRES: APPLICATION OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Forest Service is struggling with a legacy of over 100 years of fire suppression on the country's national forest lands and an increasing occurrence of uncharacteristically large, intense wildfires. This paper reviews the risk assessment process and describes how it can...

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

An evaluation of the Forest Service Hazardous Fuels Treatment Program—Are we treating enough to promote resiliency or reduce hazard?

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt

2017-01-01

The National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy recognizes that wildfire is a necessary natural process in many ecosystems and strives to reduce conflicts between fire-prone landscapes and people. In an effort to mitigate potential negative wildfire impacts proactively, the Forest Service fuels program reduces wildland fuels. As part of an internal program...

Goals, obstacles and effective strategies of wildfire mitigation programs in the Wildland-Urban Interface

Treesearch

Margaret A. Reams; Terry K. Haines; Cheryl R. Renner; Michael W. Wascom; Harish Kingre

2005-01-01

The dramatic expansion into the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) places property, natural assets, and human life at risk from wildfire destruction. The U.S. National Fire Plan encourages communities to implement laws and outreach programs for pre-fire planning to mitigate the risk to area residents. Starting in 2003, we surveyed the administrators of regulatory and...

Research Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-21

USER GUIDE Research Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska SERDP Project...Summary: Projecting Vegetation and Wildfire Response to Changing Climate and Fire Management in Interior Alaska 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...forecast landscape change in response to projected changes in climate , fire regime, and fire management. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

White-headed woodpecker nesting ecology after wildfire

Treesearch

Catherine S. Wightman; Victoria A. Saab; Chris Forristal; Kim Mellen-Mclean; Amy Markus

2010-01-01

Within forests susceptible to wildfire and insect infestations, land managers need to balance dead tree removal and habitat requirements for wildlife species associated with snags. We used Mahalanobis distance methods to develop predictive models of white-headed woodpecker (Picoides albolarvatus) nesting habitat in postfire ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated...

Critical Review of Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke Exposure.

PubMed

Reid, Colleen E; Brauer, Michael; Johnston, Fay H; Jerrett, Michael; Balmes, John R; Elliott, Catherine T

2016-09-01

Wildfire activity is predicted to increase in many parts of the world due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns from global climate change. Wildfire smoke contains numerous hazardous air pollutants and many studies have documented population health effects from this exposure. We aimed to assess the evidence of health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke and to identify susceptible populations. We reviewed the scientific literature for studies of wildfire smoke exposure on mortality and on respiratory, cardiovascular, mental, and perinatal health. Within those reviewed papers deemed to have minimal risk of bias, we assessed the coherence and consistency of findings. Consistent evidence documents associations between wildfire smoke exposure and general respiratory health effects, specifically exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Growing evidence suggests associations with increased risk of respiratory infections and all-cause mortality. Evidence for cardiovascular effects is mixed, but a few recent studies have reported associations for specific cardiovascular end points. Insufficient research exists to identify specific population subgroups that are more susceptible to wildfire smoke exposure. Consistent evidence from a large number of studies indicates that wildfire smoke exposure is associated with respiratory morbidity with growing evidence supporting an association with all-cause mortality. More research is needed to clarify which causes of mortality may be associated with wildfire smoke, whether cardiovascular outcomes are associated with wildfire smoke, and if certain populations are more susceptible. Reid CE, Brauer M, Johnston FH, Jerrett M, Balmes JR, Elliott CT. 2016. Critical review of health impacts of wildfire smoke exposure. Environ Health Perspect 124:1334-1343; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409277.

The 2016 Ft. McMurray Wildfire: Déjà vu or re-thinking the scope wildland and urban-wildland interface fires on water supplies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silins, U.; Emelko, M.; Cooke, C. A.; Charrois, J. W. A.; Stone, M.

2016-12-01

A growing number of large severe wildfires have impacted drinking water supplies of both small and larger municipalities in western North America over the past 20 years. While some of these fires include components of wildland-urban interface fire impacts to water or water treatment infrastructure, the vast majority have been wildland fires in critical source water supply regions serving these municipalities. A large body of research has provided key insights on magnitude, variability, and longevity of post-wildfire impacts on erosion, sediment production, and water quality, however assessing the impact of wildfires on water supplies often requires measuring or predicting the downstream propagation of upstream wildfire impacts to water supplies and this remains a comparatively less well explored area of wildfire-water research. The 2016 Horse River wildfire during May-June burned 590,000 ha. forcing the evacuation of the entire City of McMurray ( 90,000 residents) and represents the most expensive natural disaster in Canadian history ($3.6 billion in insurable losses alone). While the wildfire impacted extensive source water supply regions in the area surrounding Ft. McMurray, this fire serves to illustrate a broader range of challenging wildfire-water science and engineering research issues that are needed to assess the impacts of this and potentially other large wildfires on water supplies. Unlike wildfires in headwaters regions, these include unique challenges in assessing impacts of burned tributaries adjacent sources from a large wildfire situated immediately surrounding a very large river system (Athabasca River), post-fire contaminant dilution, mixing, and transport, and contaminant runoff from severely burned residential and commercial/industrial regions of the city on downstream water supplies among others.

Sources and Implications of Bias and Uncertainty in a Century of US Wildfire Activity Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short, K.

2013-12-01

The statistical analysis of wildfire activity is a critical component of national wildfire planning, operations, and research in the United States (US). Wildfire activity data have been collected in the US for over a century. Yet, to this day, no single unified system of wildfire record-keeping exists. Data for analysis are generally harvested from archival summary reports from federal or interagency fire organizations; incident-level wildfire reporting systems of the federal, state, and local fire services; and, increasingly, remote-sensing programs. It is typical for research into wildfire activity patterns for all or part of the last century to require data from several of these sources and perhaps others. That work is complicated by the disunity of the various datasets and potentially compromised by inherent reporting biases, discussed here. The availability of wildfire records with the information content and geospatial precision generally sought for increasingly popular climatological analyses and the modeling of contemporary wildfire risk is limited to recent decades. We explain how the disunity and idiosyncrasies of US wildfire reporting have largely precluded true interagency, or all-lands, analyses of even recent wildfire activity and hamstrung some early risk modeling efforts. We then describe our efforts to acquire, standardize, error-check, compile, scrub, and evaluate the completeness of US federal, state, and local wildfire records from 1992-2011 for the national interagency Fire Program Analysis (FPA) application. The resulting FPA Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA FOD) includes nearly 1.6 million records from the 20-year period, with values for at least the following core data elements: location at least as precise as a Public Land Survey System section (2.6-km2 grid), discovery date, and final fire size. The FPA FOD is publicly available from the Research Data Archive of the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2013-0009). While necessarily incomplete in some aspects, the database is intended to facilitate fairly high-resolution geospatial analysis of wildfire activity over the past two decades, based on available information from the authoritative systems of record. Formal non-federal wildfire reporting has been on the rise over the past several decades, and users of national datasets like the FPA FOD must beware of state and local reporting biases to avoid drawing spurious conclusions when analysing the data. Apparent trends in the numbers and area burned by wildfires, for example, may be the result of multiple factors, including changes in climate, fuels, demographics (e.g. population density), fire-management policies, and - as we underscore here - levels of reporting.

Numerical modeling of the effects of fire-induced convection and fire-atmosphere interactions on wildfire spread and fire plume dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruiyu

It is possible due to present day computing power to produce a fluid dynamical physically-based numerical solution to wildfire behavior, at least in the research mode. This type of wildfire modeling affords a flexibility and produces details that are not available in either current operational wildfire behavior models or field experiments. However before using these models to study wildfire, validation is necessary, and model results need to be systematically and objectively analyzed and compared to real fires. Plume theory and data from the Meteotron experiment, which was specially designed to provide results from measurements for the theoretical study of a convective plume produced by a high heat source at the ground, are used here to evaluate the fire plume properties simulated by two numerical wildfire models, the Fire Dynamics Simulator or FDS, and the Clark coupled atmosphere-fire model. The study indicates that the FDS produces good agreement with the plume theory and the Meteotron results. The study also suggests that the coupled atmosphere-fire model, a less explicit and ideally less computationally demanding model than the FDS; can produce good agreement, but that the agreement is sensitive to the method of putting the energy released from the fire into the atmosphere. The WFDS (Wildfire and wildland-urban interface FDS), an extension of the FDS to the vegetative fuel, and the Australian grass fire experiments are used to evaluate and improve the UULES-wildfire coupled model. Despite the simple fire parameterization in the UULES-wildfire coupled model, the fireline is fairly well predicted in terms of both shape and location in the simulation of Australian grass fire experiment F19. Finally, the UULES-wildfire coupled model is used to examine how the turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) affects the growth of the grass fires. The model fires showed significant randomness in fire growth: Fire spread is not deterministic in the ABL, and a probabilistic prediction method is warranted. Of the two contributors to the variability in fire growth in the grass fire simulations in the ABL, fire-induced convection, as opposed to the turbulent ABL wind, appears to be the more important one. One mechanism associated with enhanced fire-induced flow is the downdraft behind the frontal fireline. The downdraft is the direct result of the random interaction between the fire plume and the large eddies in the ABL. This study indicates a connection between fire variability in rate of spread and area burnt and so-called convective velocity scale, and it may be possible to use this boundary-layer scale parameter to account for the effects of ABL turbulence on fire spread and fire behavior in today's operational fire prediction systems.

NOAA's National Air Quality Predictions and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for the Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, I.; Hou, Y. T.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Tong, D.; Pan, L.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Upadhayay, S.

2016-12-01

NOAA provides operational air quality predictions using the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC): ozone and wildfire smoke for the United States and airborne dust for the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. NOAA's predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) became publicly available in February 2016. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are produced using a system that operationally links the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the North American mesoscale forecast Model (NAM). Smoke and dust predictions are provided using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Current NAQFC focus is on updating CMAQ to version 5.0.2, improving PM2.5 predictions, and updating emissions estimates, especially for NOx using recently observed trends. Wildfire smoke emissions from a newer version of the USFS BlueSky system are being included in a new configuration of the NAQFC NAM-CMAQ system, which is re-run for the previous 24 hours when the wildfires were observed from satellites, to better represent wildfire emissions prior to initiating predictions for the next 48 hours. In addition, NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to represent the earth system for extended weather prediction. NGGPS will include a representation of atmospheric dynamics, physics, aerosols and atmospheric composition as well as coupling with ocean, wave, ice and land components. NGGPS is being developed with a broad community involvement, including community developed components and academic research to develop and test potential improvements for potentially inclusion in NGGPS. Several investigators at NOAA's research laboratories and in academia are working to improve the aerosol and gaseous chemistry representation for NGGPS, to develop and evaluate the representation of atmospheric composition, and to establish and improve the coupling with radiation and microphysics. Additional efforts may include the improved use of predicted atmospheric composition in assimilation of observations and the linkage of full global atmospheric composition predictions with national air quality predictions.

Characterization of the visibility of wildfire smoke clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vries, Jan S.; den Breejen, Eric

1993-09-01

In order to investigate the smoke cloud visibility of small wildfires a series of controlled biomass burning experiments has been carried out to investigate the characteristics of smoke clouds using various remote sensing techniques. These techniques include simultaneous scattering and transmission measurements in four wavelength bands, near-, mid-, and far- infrared video imagery, high resolution Fourier spectrometry, and particle size distribution measurements. The characterization and, in particular, knowledge on the contrast of smoke from small, beginning wildfires against a vegetation background is required in order to predict the performance of autonomous surveillance systems. This paper describes the preliminary analysis of experiments which have been carried out in Ypenburg (the Netherlands) in 1992. The results of these experiments are used to estimate the wildfire detection efficiency of a demonstration sensor which is being developed in a project financed by the Commission of the European Communities and by Bosschap. The autonomous wildfire detection sensor is described.

Wildfire and the future of water supply.

PubMed

Bladon, Kevin D; Emelko, Monica B; Silins, Uldis; Stone, Micheal

2014-08-19

In many parts of the world, forests provide high quality water for domestic, agricultural, industrial, and ecological needs, with water supplies in those regions inextricably linked to forest health. Wildfires have the potential to have devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems and community drinking water supply through impacts on water quantity and quality. In recent decades, a combination of fuel load accumulation, climate change, extensive droughts, and increased human presence in forests have resulted in increases in area burned and wildfire severity-a trend predicted to continue. Thus, the implications of wildfire for many downstream water uses are increasingly concerning, particularly the provision of safe drinking water, which may require additional treatment infrastructure and increased operations and maintenance costs in communities downstream of impacted landscapes. A better understanding of the effects of wildfire on water is needed to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect globally critical water supplies originating in forested environments.

Regimes of dry convection above wildfires: Idealized numerical simulations and dimensional analysis

Treesearch

Michael T. Kiefer; Matthew D. Parker; Joseph J. Charney

2009-01-01

Wildfires are capable of inducing atmospheric circulations that result predominantly from large temperature anomalies produced by the fire. The fundamental dynamics through which a forest fire and the atmosphere interact to yield different convective regimes is still not well understood. This study uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model to...

The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed

Treesearch

Mingliang Liu; Michael E. Barber; Keith A. Cherkauer; Pete Robichaud; Jennifer C. Adam

2016-01-01

Increases in wildfire occurrence and severity under an altered climate can substantially impact terrestrial ecosystems through enhancing runoff erosion. Improved prediction tools that provide high resolution spatial information are necessary for location-specific soil conservation and watershed management. However, quantifying the magnitude of soil erosion and...

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss

PubMed Central

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction. PMID:23977120

Critical Review of Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke Exposure

PubMed Central

Reid, Colleen E.; Brauer, Michael; Johnston, Fay H.; Jerrett, Michael; Balmes, John R.; Elliott, Catherine T.

2016-01-01

Background: Wildfire activity is predicted to increase in many parts of the world due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns from global climate change. Wildfire smoke contains numerous hazardous air pollutants and many studies have documented population health effects from this exposure. Objectives: We aimed to assess the evidence of health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke and to identify susceptible populations. Methods: We reviewed the scientific literature for studies of wildfire smoke exposure on mortality and on respiratory, cardiovascular, mental, and perinatal health. Within those reviewed papers deemed to have minimal risk of bias, we assessed the coherence and consistency of findings. Discussion: Consistent evidence documents associations between wildfire smoke exposure and general respiratory health effects, specifically exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Growing evidence suggests associations with increased risk of respiratory infections and all-cause mortality. Evidence for cardiovascular effects is mixed, but a few recent studies have reported associations for specific cardiovascular end points. Insufficient research exists to identify specific population subgroups that are more susceptible to wildfire smoke exposure. Conclusions: Consistent evidence from a large number of studies indicates that wildfire smoke exposure is associated with respiratory morbidity with growing evidence supporting an association with all-cause mortality. More research is needed to clarify which causes of mortality may be associated with wildfire smoke, whether cardiovascular outcomes are associated with wildfire smoke, and if certain populations are more susceptible. Citation: Reid CE, Brauer M, Johnston FH, Jerrett M, Balmes JR, Elliott CT. 2016. Critical review of health impacts of wildfire smoke exposure. Environ Health Perspect 124:1334–1343; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409277 PMID:27082891

Developing an online tool for identifying at-risk populations to wildfire smoke hazards.

PubMed

Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Yip, Fuyuen; Garbe, Paul

2018-04-01

Wildfire episodes pose a significant public health threat in the United States. Adverse health impacts associated with wildfires occur near the burn area as well as in places far downwind due to wildfire smoke exposures. Health effects associated with exposure to particulate matter arising from wildfires can range from mild eye and respiratory tract irritation to more serious outcomes such as asthma exacerbation, bronchitis, and decreased lung function. Real-time operational forecasts of wildfire smoke concentrations are available but they are not readily integrated with information on vulnerable populations necessary to identify at-risk communities during wildfire smoke episodes. Efforts are currently underway at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to develop an online tool that utilizes short-term predictions and forecasts of smoke concentrations and integrates them with measures of population-level vulnerability for identifying at-risk populations to wildfire smoke hazards. The tool will be operationalized on a national scale, seeking input and assistance from several academic, federal, state, local, Tribal, and Territorial partners. The final product will then be incorporated into CDC's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (http://ephtracking.cdc.gov), providing users with access to a suite of mapping and display functionalities. A real-time vulnerability assessment tool incorporating standardized health and exposure datasets, and prevention guidelines related to wildfire smoke hazards is currently unavailable for public health practitioners and emergency responders. This tool could strengthen existing situational awareness competencies, and expedite future response and recovery efforts during wildfire episodes. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Technology and the study of wildfire: Middle school students study the impacts of wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fox-Gliessman, D.; Kerski, J.J.

2005-01-01

Various technologies that can assist students in exploring the human and environmental impacts of wildfire and in communicating their findings are discussed. Wildfires occur in many parts of the world, and provide an excellent opportunity for students to study local and global interdisciplinary issues using technology. Prior to the beginning of the field study, students take instructions in both their math and science classes about the distinction and appropriate uses of quantitative and qualitative data. Use of computer programs such as Excel spreadsheets which can contain data, and interaction of research and technology group with students, can help them collect best of the information and in making an accurate report.

Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Casazza, Michael L.

2015-09-10

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic periods of high precipitation. Based on 30-year projections of burn and recovery rates, our population model predicted steady and substantial long-term declines in population size across the Great Basin. Further, example management scenarios that may help offset adverse wildfire effects are provided by models of varying levels of fire suppression and post-wildfire restoration that focus on areas especially important to sage-grouse populations. These models illustrate how sage-grouse population persistence likely will be compromised as sagebrush ecosystems and sage-grouse habitat are degraded by wildfire, especially in a warmer and drier climate, and by invasion of annual grasses that can increase wildfire frequency and size in the Great Basin.

The effects of hillslope-scale variability in burn severity on post-fire sediment delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Dylan; Brooks, Erin; Dobre, Mariana; Lew, Roger; Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William

2017-04-01

With the increasing frequency of wildfire and the costs associated with managing the burned landscapes, there is an increasing need for decision support tools that can be used to assess the effectiveness of targeted post-fire management strategies. The susceptibility of landscapes to post-fire soil erosion and runoff have been closely linked with the severity of the wildfire. Wildfire severity maps are often spatial complex and largely dependent upon total vegetative biomass, fuel moisture patterns, direction of burn, wind patterns, and other factors. The decision to apply targeted treatment to a specific landscape and the amount of resources dedicated to treating a landscape should ideally be based on the potential for excessive sediment delivery from a particular hillslope. Recent work has suggested that the delivery of sediment to a downstream water body from a hillslope will be highly influenced by the distribution of wildfire severity across a hillslope and that models that do not capture this hillslope scale variability would not provide reliable sediment and runoff predictions. In this project we compare detailed (10 m) grid-based model predictions to lumped and semi-lumped hillslope approaches where hydrologic parameters are fixed based on hillslope scale averaging techniques. We use the watershed scale version of the process-based Watershed Erosion Prediction Projection (WEPP) model and its GIS interface, GeoWEPP, to simulate the fire impacts on runoff and sediment delivery using burn severity maps at a watershed scale. The flowpath option in WEPP allows for the most detail representation of wildfire severity patterns (10 m) but depending upon the size of the watershed, simulations are time consuming and computational demanding. The hillslope version is a simpler approach which assigns wildfire severity based on the severity level that is assigned to the majority of the hillslope area. In the third approach we divided hillslopes in overland flow elements (OFEs) and assigned representative input values on a finer scale within single hillslopes. Each of these approaches were compared for several large wildfires in the mountainous ranges of central Idaho, USA. Simulations indicated that predictions based on lumped hillslope modeling over-predict sediment transport by as much as 4.8x in areas of high to moderate burn severity. Annual sediment yield within the simulated watersheds ranged from 1.7 tonnes/ha to 6.8 tonnes/ha. The disparity between simulated sediment yield with these approaches was attributed to hydrologic connectivity of the burn patterns within the hillslope. High infiltration rates between high severity sites can greatly reduce the delivery of sediment. This research underlines the importance of accurately representing soil burn severity along individual hillslopes in hydrologic models and the need for modeling approaches to capture this variability to reliability simulate soil erosion.

Wildfire ignition-distribution modelling: a comparative study in the Huron-Manistee National Forest, Michigan, USA

Treesearch

Avi Bar Massada; Alexandra D. Syphard; Susan I. Stewart; Volker C. Radeloff

2012-01-01

Wildfire ignition distribution models are powerful tools for predicting the probability of ignitions across broad areas, and identifying their drivers. Several approaches have been used for ignition-distribution modelling, yet the performance of different model types has not been compared. This is unfortunate, given that conceptually similar species-distribution models...

Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

Treesearch

Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

2010-01-01

We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

Development of Envelope Curves for Predicting Void Dimensions from Overturned Trees

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

transport due to tree root throw: integrating tree population dynamics, wildfire, and geomorphic response (Gallaway et al. 2009...Johnson. 2009. Sediment transport due to tree root throw: Integrating tree population dynamics, wildfire and geomorphic response. Earth Surface Processes...environment, but not vegetation (Peterson and Leach 2008) ............................................................ 17 4.7 Pedologic and geomorphic impacts

A cellular automaton model of wildfire propagation and extinction

Treesearch

Keith C. Clarke; James A. Brass; Phillip J. Riggan

1994-01-01

We propose a new model to predict the spatial and temporal behavior of wildfires. Fire spread and intensity were simulated using a cellular automaton model. Monte Carlo techniques were used to provide fire risk probabilities for areas where fuel loadings and topography are known. The model assumes predetermined or measurable environmental variables such as wind...

Post-fire, rainfall intensity-peak discharge relations for three mountainous watersheds in the Western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, J.A.; Martin, D.A.

2001-01-01

Wildfire alters the hydrologic response of watersheds, including the peak discharges resulting from subsequent rainfall. Improving predictions of the magnitude of flooding that follows wildfire is needed because of the increase in human population at risk in the wildland-urban interface. Because this wildland-urban interface is typically in mountainous terrain, we investigated rainfall-runoff relations by measuring the maximum 30 min rainfall intensity and the unit-area peak discharge (peak discharge divided by the area burned) in three mountainous watersheds (17-26.8 km2) after a wildfire. We found rainfall-runoff relations that relate the unit-area peak discharges to the maximum 30 min rainfall intensities by a power law. These rainfall-runoff relations appear to have a threshold value for the maximum 30 min rainfall intensity (around 10 mm h-1) such that, above this threshold, the magnitude of the flood peaks increases more rapidly with increases in intensity. This rainfall intensity could be used to set threshold limits in rain gauges that are part of an early-warning flood system after wildfire. The maximum unit-area peak discharges from these three burned watersheds ranged from 3.2 to 50 m3 s-1 km-2. These values could provide initial estimates of the upper limits of runoff that can be used to predict floods after wildfires in mountainous terrain. Published in 2001 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Thermal analysis of wildfires and effects on global ecosystem cycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambrosia, Vincent G.; Brass, James A.

1988-01-01

Biomass combustion plays an important role in the earth's biogeochemical cycling. The monitoring of wildfires and their associated variables at global scales is feasible and can lead to predictions of the influence of combustion on biogeochemical cycling and tropospheric chemistry. Remote sensing data collected during the 1985 California wildfire season indicate that the information content of key thermal and infrared/thermal wave band channels centered at 11.5 microns, 3.8 microns, and 2.25 microns are invaluable for discriminating and calculating fire related variables. These variables include fire intensity, rate-of-spread, soil cooling recovery behind the fire front, and plume structure. Coinciding Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data provided information regarding temperature estimations and the movement of the smoke plume from one wildfire into the Los Angeles basin.

Multitemporal Modelling of Socio-Economic Wildfire Drivers in Central Spain between the 1980s and the 2000s: Comparing Generalized Linear Models to Machine Learning Algorithms

PubMed Central

Vilar, Lara; Gómez, Israel; Martínez-Vega, Javier; Echavarría, Pilar; Riaño, David; Martín, M. Pilar

2016-01-01

The socio-economic factors are of key importance during all phases of wildfire management that include prevention, suppression and restoration. However, modeling these factors, at the proper spatial and temporal scale to understand fire regimes is still challenging. This study analyses socio-economic drivers of wildfire occurrence in central Spain. This site represents a good example of how human activities play a key role over wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and machine learning Maximum Entropy models (Maxent) predicted wildfire occurrence in the 1980s and also in the 2000s to identify changes between each period in the socio-economic drivers affecting wildfire occurrence. GLM base their estimation on wildfire presence-absence observations whereas Maxent on wildfire presence-only. According to indicators like sensitivity or commission error Maxent outperformed GLM in both periods. It achieved a sensitivity of 38.9% and a commission error of 43.9% for the 1980s, and 67.3% and 17.9% for the 2000s. Instead, GLM obtained 23.33, 64.97, 9.41 and 18.34%, respectively. However GLM performed steadier than Maxent in terms of the overall fit. Both models explained wildfires from predictors such as population density and Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), but differed in their relative contribution. As a result of the urban sprawl and an abandonment of rural areas, predictors like WUI and distance to roads increased their contribution to both models in the 2000s, whereas Forest-Grassland Interface (FGI) influence decreased. This study demonstrates that human component can be modelled with a spatio-temporal dimension to integrate it into wildfire risk assessment. PMID:27557113

Multitemporal Modelling of Socio-Economic Wildfire Drivers in Central Spain between the 1980s and the 2000s: Comparing Generalized Linear Models to Machine Learning Algorithms.

PubMed

Vilar, Lara; Gómez, Israel; Martínez-Vega, Javier; Echavarría, Pilar; Riaño, David; Martín, M Pilar

2016-01-01

The socio-economic factors are of key importance during all phases of wildfire management that include prevention, suppression and restoration. However, modeling these factors, at the proper spatial and temporal scale to understand fire regimes is still challenging. This study analyses socio-economic drivers of wildfire occurrence in central Spain. This site represents a good example of how human activities play a key role over wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and machine learning Maximum Entropy models (Maxent) predicted wildfire occurrence in the 1980s and also in the 2000s to identify changes between each period in the socio-economic drivers affecting wildfire occurrence. GLM base their estimation on wildfire presence-absence observations whereas Maxent on wildfire presence-only. According to indicators like sensitivity or commission error Maxent outperformed GLM in both periods. It achieved a sensitivity of 38.9% and a commission error of 43.9% for the 1980s, and 67.3% and 17.9% for the 2000s. Instead, GLM obtained 23.33, 64.97, 9.41 and 18.34%, respectively. However GLM performed steadier than Maxent in terms of the overall fit. Both models explained wildfires from predictors such as population density and Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), but differed in their relative contribution. As a result of the urban sprawl and an abandonment of rural areas, predictors like WUI and distance to roads increased their contribution to both models in the 2000s, whereas Forest-Grassland Interface (FGI) influence decreased. This study demonstrates that human component can be modelled with a spatio-temporal dimension to integrate it into wildfire risk assessment.

Understanding the transmission of wildfire risk on a fire prone landscape - A Case study from Central Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, Alan; Barros, Ana; Day, Michelle; Preisler, Haiganoush; Evers, Cody

2015-04-01

We develop the idea of risk transmission from large wildfires and apply network analyses to understand its importance within the 3.2 million ha Fire-People-Forest study area in central Oregon, US. Historic wildfires within the study and elsewhere in the western US frequently burn over long distances (e.g., 20-50 km) through highly fragmented landscapes with respect to ownership, fuels, management intensity, population density, and ecological conditions. The collective arrangement of fuel loadings in concert with weather and suppression efforts ultimately determines containment and the resulting fire perimeter. While spatial interactions among land parcels in terms of fire spread and intensity have been frequently noted by fire managers, quantifying risk and exposure transmission is not well understood. In this paper we used simulation modeling to quantify wildfire transmission and built a transmission network among and within land owners and communities within the study area. The results suggested that 84% of the predicted area burned within the 25 communities in the study area was from simulated fires that ignited on federal lands. The wildland urban interface surrounding the communities was predicted to burn at a rate of 2 % per year, with 57% of the area burned from fires ignited on federal lands. The node degree for communities indicated that simulated fires originated on about 6 different landowners. Network analyses in general revealed independent variation in transmitted fire among landowners in terms of both node degree (diversity of landowners exchanging fire) and transmitted fire, indicating that both the spatial grain of land ownership and wildfire topology contribute to transmission among land parcels. We discuss how network analyses of wildfire transmission can inform fire management goals for creating fire adapted communities, conserving biodiversity, and resolving competing demands for fire-prone ecosystem services. We also discuss how biophysical fire networks can potentially be coupled with social fire networks to improve wildfire mitigation planning.

Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs

Treesearch

Kevin Hyde; Matthew B. Dickinson; Gil Bohrer; David Calkin; Louisa Evers; Julie Gilbertson-Day; Tessa Nicolet; Kevin Ryan; Christina Tague

2013-01-01

Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on...

Determining potential wildlife benefits from wildfire in Arizona ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Philip O. Lowe; Peter F. Ffolliott; John H. Dieterich; David R. Patton

1978-01-01

Large wildfires are frequently destructive to the timber resource, but wildlife may not be so adversely affected. A study of selected species of wildlife (deer, elk, rodents, and birds) that were present on large burned areas, 1, 3, 7, and 20 years old, indicated population fluctuations and habitat changes that are, for the most part, predictable, and can be expressed...

Wildfire potential evaluation during a drought event with a regional climate model and NDVI

Treesearch

Y. Liu; J. Stanturf; S. Goodrick

2010-01-01

Regional climate modeling is a technique for simulating high-resolution physical processes in the atmosphere, soil and vegetation. It can be used to evaluate wildfire potential by either providing meteorological conditions for computation of fire indices or predicting soil moisture as a direct measure of fire potential. This study examines these roles using a regional...

Using WEPP technology to predict erosion and runoff following wildfire

Treesearch

William J. Elliot; Ina Sue Miller; Brandon D. Glaza

2006-01-01

Erosion following wildfire can be as much as 1000 times the erosion from an undisturbed forest. In August, 2005, the largest fire in the lower 48 states occurred in the Umatilla National Forest in Southeast Washington. Researchers from the Rocky Mountain Research Station assisted the forest in estimating soil erosion using three different applications of the WEPP model...

Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Julie Gilbertson-Day

2010-01-01

This report was designed to meet three broad goals: (1) evaluate wildfire hazard on Federal lands; (2) develop information useful in prioritizing where fuels treatments and mitigation measures might be proposed to address significant fire hazard and risk; and (3) develop risk-based performance measures to document the effectiveness of fire management programs. The...

Surface fuel loadings within mulching treatments in Colorado coniferous forests

Treesearch

Mike A. Battaglia; Monique E. Rocca; Charles C. Rhoades; Michael G. Ryan

2010-01-01

Recent large-scale, severe wildfires in the western United States have prompted extensive mechanical fuel treatment programs to reduce potential wildfire size and severity. Fuel reduction prescriptions typically target non-merchantable material so approaches to mechanically treat and distribute residue on site are becoming increasingly common. We examined how mulch...

Educating and engaging the business sector in reducing wildfire property losses

Treesearch

Anne S. Fege; Christopher Blaylock

2007-01-01

Most wildfire education programs have relied overwhelmingly on homeowner information and education, limiting the role of such business professionals as architects, builders, insurance agents, landscape architects and contractors, planners, media, and realtors. This project was undertaken to engage and educate professionals who design landscapes and homes, work for home...

Impacts of climate change on large forest wildfire of Washington and Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Davis, R. J.; Yost, A.; Cohen, W. B.

2014-12-01

Climate changes in the 21st century were projected to have major impact on wildfire. The state of Washington and Oregon contains a tightly coupled forest ecosystem and fire regime. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of future climate changes for large wildfire in the two states. MAXENT algorithm was used to develop a large forest wildfire suitability model using historical fire for the 1971-2000 time period and validated for 1981-2010 time period . Input variables include climate (e.g. July-August temperature) and topographic variables (e.g. elevation). The model test AUC of 0.77±0.1. Using the predicted versus expected curve and methods described by Hirzel and others (Hirzel et al. 2006), we reclassified the model into four classes; low suitability (0-0.36), moderate suitability 0.36-0.5), high suitability (0.5-0.75), and very high suitability (0.75-1.0). To examine the future climate change impact, climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) from 33 different climate models were used to predict the large wildfire suitability from 1971-2100 using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset. Results from ensembles of all the climate scenarios showed that the area with high and very high suitability for large wildfire increased under all 4 climate scenarios from 1971 to 2100. However, under RCP 2.6, the area start to decline from 2080 while the other three scenarios keep increasing. On the extreme case of RCP 8.5, very high suitable area increases from less than 1% during 1971-2000 to 14.9% during 2070-2100. Details about temporal patterns for the study area and changes by ecoregions will be presented.

Altered peat hydrophysical properties following drainage and wildfire increases peatland vulnerability to ecosystem regime shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waddington, James; Kettridge, Nick; Sherwood, James; Granath, Gustaf

2015-04-01

Northern peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reservoir, composed largely of legacy carbon which is no longer part of the active carbon cycle. However, it is unclear whether this legacy carbon is vulnerable as a result of enhanced peat smouldering and combustion under the moderate drying conditions predicted for northern peatlands as a result of climate change and/or disturbance from forestry, mining, and associated transport development. A significant loss in legacy carbon as a result of wildfire has already been observed in smaller tropical peatlands where deep peat soils have been destabilized due to severe drainage and a shift in vegetation. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland several decades post drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition, previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands, when accompanied by wildfire. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire resulted in a shift of the peat surface down the peat profile, exposing denser peat at the surface. In undisturbed northern peatlands where depth of burn is typically low, low-density near-surface peats help regulate water-table position and near-surface moisture availability post-fire, both of which are favourable to Sphagnum recolonization. As a result of drainage and fire at the study site, the self-regulating properties of the low-density Sphagnum surface were lost. We demonstrate that changes in peat hydrophysical properties increased hydrological limitations to Sphagnum recovery leading to the conversion to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy carbon stored in the peat.

Determinants of National Fire Plan Fuels Treatment Expenditures: A Revealed Preference Analysis for Northern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Curt; Grimsrud, Kristine; Berrens, Robert P.

2009-10-01

The accumulation of fire fuels in forests throughout the world contributes significantly to the severity of wildfires. To combat the threat of wildfire, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), US federal land management agencies have implemented a number of forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction programs. In the spirit of revealed preference analyses, the objective of this study is to investigate the pattern and determinants of National Fire Plan (NFP) expenditures for fuel reduction treatments in northern New Mexico (USA). Estimation results from a set of Generalized Estimating Equations models are mixed with respect to risk reduction hypotheses, and also raise issues regarding how risk reduction should be defined for a region characterized by both pockets of urban sprawl into the WUI and large areas of chronic rural poverty. Program preferences for project funding under the federal Collaborative Forest Restoration Program in New Mexico are shown to be distinctly different (e.g., exhibiting greater concern for social equity) than for other NFP-funded projects.

Wildfire risk assessment in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface of Greece.

PubMed

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface of Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsopoulos, Ioannis; Mallinis, Giorgos; Arianoutsou, Margarita

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland-urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source-sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey's significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

Improving European Wildfire Emergency Information Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bielski, Conrad; Whitmore, Ceri; O'Brien, Victoria; Zeug, Gunter; Kalas, Milan; Porras, Ignasi; Solé, Josep Maria; Gálvez, Pedro; Navarro, Maria; Nurmi, Pertti; Kilpinen, Juha; Ylinen, Kaisa; Furllanelo, Cesare; Maggio, Valerio; Alikadic, Azra; Dolci, Claudia

2017-04-01

European wildfires are a seasonal natural hazard that many regions must battle regularly. However, as European urbanization continues to encroach on natural areas and the climate changes it is likely that the frequency of wildfires will increase likewise the number of areas prone to wildfires. It is therefore paramount not only to increase public awareness of this natural hazard but also to be prepared by improving wildfire hazard forecasting, monitoring, and mapping. As part of the H2020 funded project entitled Improving Resilience to Emergencies through Advanced Cyber Technologies: I-REACT (Grant Agreement #700256) , there is a task with the goal to develop models and implement technologies to improve the support around the entire emergency management cycle with respect to wildfire hazards. Based on operational weather forecasts, pan-European geospatial data as well as regularly acquired Earth Observation imagery through the Copernicus program, and other sources of information such as social media channels a European wildfire service is being developed. This will be achieved by improving on the successes of the European Forest Fire Information Service (EFFIS) and the guidance of emergency managers experienced in wildfire hazards. Part of the research will be to reduce the number of false alarms. However, once a wildfire has been identified, the system focuses on the disaster region to provide situational information to the decision makers applying state-of-the-art approaches to improve disaster response. Post-wildfire information will continue to be produced for damage and recovery assessments. Ultimately, I-REACT expects to reduce wildfire costs to life, property and livelihood. This work will improve wildfire disaster emergency management through the development and integration of new data and technologies respectively as well as the knowledge from emergency managers who not only understand the hazard itself but also can provide insights into the information that can help them do their jobs better.

Predicting wildfires

Treesearch

Patricia Andrews; Mark Finney; Mark Fischetti

2007-01-01

The number of catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. has been steadily rising. The nation has spent more than $1 billion annually to suppress such fires in eight of the past 10 years. In 2005 a record 8.7 million acres burned, only to be succeeded by 9.9 million acres in 2006. And this year is off to a furious start. To a great extent, the increase in fires stems from a...

Predicted fates of ground-nesting bees in soil heated by wildfire: Thermal tolerances of life stages and a survey of nesting depths

Treesearch

James H. Cane; John L. Neff

2011-01-01

Periodic wildfire defines plant community composition and dynamics in many of the world's semi-arid biomes, whose climates and floras also favor wild bee diversity. Invasive flammable grasses, deforestation, historical fire suppression and human ignition are increasing fire frequency and intensifying its severity, as well as introducing fire to previously...

Uncertainties in predicting debris flow hazards following wildfire [Chapter 19

Treesearch

Kevin D. Hyde; Karin Riley; Cathelijne Stoof

2017-01-01

Wildfire increases the probability of debris flows posing hazardous conditions where values‐at‐risk exist downstream of burned areas. Conditions and processes leading to postfire debris flows usually follow a general sequence defined here as the postfire debris flow hazard cascade: biophysical setting, fire processes, fire effects, rainfall, debris flow, and values‐at‐...

Wildfire in the Foothills: youth working with communities to adapt to wildfire

Treesearch

Heidi L. Ballard; Emily R. Evans

2012-01-01

Around the world, youth are recognized as playing an important role in reducing the risk of disasters and promoting community resilience. Youth are participating in disaster education programs and carrying home what they learn; their families, in turn, are disseminating knowledge into the community. In addition to making a difference today, youth disaster education...

Using NASA Satellite Observations to Map Wildfire Risk in the United States for Allocation of Fire Management Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahmand, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Behrangi, A.; Stavros, E. N.; Randerson, J. T.

2017-12-01

Fires are a key disturbance globally acting as a catalyst for terrestrial ecosystem change and contributing significantly to both carbon emissions and changes in surface albedo. The socioeconomic impacts of wildfire activities are also significant with wildfire activity results in billions of dollars of losses every year. Fire size, area burned and frequency are increasing, thus the likelihood of fire danger, defined by United States National Interagency Fire Center (NFIC) as the demand of fire management resources as a function of how flammable fuels (a function of ignitability, consumability and availability) are from normal, is an important step toward reducing costs associated with wildfires. Numerous studies have aimed to predict the likelihood of fire danger, but few studies use remote sensing data to map fire danger at scales commensurate with regional management decisions (e.g., deployment of resources nationally throughout fire season with seasonal and monthly prediction). Here, we use NASA Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) assimilated surface soil moisture, NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) vapor pressure deficit, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index products and landcover products, along with US Forest Service historical fire activity data to generate probabilistic monthly fire potential maps in the United States. These maps can be useful in not only government operational allocation of fire management resources, but also improving understanding of the Earth System and how it is changing in order to refine predictions of fire extremes.

What are the most fire-dangerous atmospheric circulations in the Eastern-Mediterranean? Analysis of the synoptic wildfire climatology.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A

2016-01-01

Wildfire management is closely linked to robust forecasts of changes in wildfire risk related to meteorological conditions. This link can be bridged either through fire weather indices or through statistical techniques that directly relate atmospheric patterns to wildfire activity. In the present work the COST-733 classification schemes are applied in order to link wildfires in Greece with synoptic circulation patterns. The analysis reveals that the majority of wildfire events can be explained by a small number of specific synoptic circulations, hence reflecting the synoptic climatology of wildfires. All 8 classification schemes used, prove that the most fire-dangerous conditions in Greece are characterized by a combination of high atmospheric pressure systems located N to NW of Greece, coupled with lower pressures located over the very Eastern part of the Mediterranean, an atmospheric pressure pattern closely linked to the local Etesian winds over the Aegean Sea. During these events, the atmospheric pressure has been reported to be anomalously high, while anomalously low 500hPa geopotential heights and negative total water column anomalies were also observed. Among the various classification schemes used, the 2 Principal Component Analysis-based classifications, namely the PCT and the PXE, as well as the Leader Algorithm classification LND proved to be the best options, in terms of being capable to isolate the vast amount of fire events in a small number of classes with increased frequency of occurrence. It is estimated that these 3 schemes, in combination with medium-range to seasonal climate forecasts, could be used by wildfire risk managers to provide increased wildfire prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.; Shakesby, Richard A.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Cannon, Susan H.; Martin, Deborah A.

2013-01-01

Research into post-wildfire effects began in the United States more than 70 years ago and only later extended to other parts of the world. Post-wildfire responses are typically transient, episodic, variable in space and time, dependent on thresholds, and involve multiple processes measured by different methods. These characteristics tend to hinder research progress, but the large empirical knowledge base amassed in different regions of the world suggests that it should now be possible to synthesize the data and make a substantial improvement in the understanding of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response. Thus, it is important to identify and prioritize the research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion. Priority research issues are the need to: (1) organize and synthesize similarities and differences in post-wildfire responses between different fire-prone regions of the world in order to determine common patterns and generalities that can explain cause and effect relations; (2) identify and quantify functional relations between metrics of fire effects and soil hydraulic properties that will better represent the dynamic and transient conditions after a wildfire; (3) determine the interaction between burned landscapes and temporally and spatially variable meso-scale precipitation, which is often the primary driver of post-wildfire runoff and erosion responses; (4) determine functional relations between precipitation, basin morphology, runoff connectivity, contributing area, surface roughness, depression storage, and soil characteristics required to predict the timing, magnitudes, and duration of floods and debris flows from ungaged burned basins; and (5) develop standard measurement methods that will ensure the collection of uniform and comparable runoff and erosion data. Resolution of these issues will help to improve conceptual and computer models of post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes.

An Assessment of Land Surface and Lightning Characteristics Associated with Lightning-Initiated Wildfires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coy, James; Schultz, Christopher J.; Case, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

Can we use modeled information of the land surface and characteristics of lightning beyond flash occurrence to increase the identification and prediction of wildfires? Combine observed cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes with real-time land surface model output, and Compare data with areas where lightning did not start a wildfire to determine what land surface conditions and lightning characteristics were responsible for causing wildfires. Statistical differences between suspected fire-starters and non-fire-starters were peak-current dependent 0-10 cm Volumetric and Relative Soil Moisture comparisons were statistically dependent to at least the p = 0.05 independence level for both polarity flash types Suspected fire-starters typically occurred in areas of lower soil moisture than non-fire-starters. GVF value comparisons were only found to be statistically dependent for -CG flashes. However, random sampling of the -CG non-fire starter dataset revealed that this relationship may not always hold.

Use of spatially refined satellite remote sensing fire detection data to initialize and evaluate coupled weather-wildfire growth model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, W.; Coen, J.; Oliva, P.

2013-12-01

Availability of spatially refined satellite active fire detection data is gradually increasing. For example, the new 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data show improved active fire detection performance for both small and large size fires. The VIIRS data have proved superior to MODIS for mapping of wildfires events spanning several days to weeks of either continued or intermittent activity, delivering 12-h active fire data of improved spatial fidelity. The VIIRS active fire data are complemented by other satellite active fire data sets of similar or higher spatial resolution, including the new 30 m Landsat-8. Additional assets should include the upcoming 20 m Sentinel-2 Landsat-class satellite program by the European Space Agency to be launched in 2014-15. These improved active fire data sets are fostering new applications that rely on higher resolution input fire data. In this study, we describe the characteristics of the new VIIRS and Landsat-8 data and demonstrate one such new application of satellite active fire data in support of fire behavior modeling. We present results for a wildfire observed in June 2012 in New Mexico using an innovative approach to improving the simulation of large, long-duration wildfires, either for retrospective studies or forecasting in a number of geophysical applications. The approach uses (1) the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) Model, a numerical weather prediction model two-way coupled with a module representing the rate of spread of a wildfire's flaming front, its rate of consumption of different wildland fuels, and the feedback of this heat release upon the atmosphere - i.e. 'how a fire creates its own weather', combined with (2) spatially refined 375 m VIIRS active fire data, which is used for initialization of a wildfire already in progress in the model and evaluation of its simulated progression at the time of the next pass. Results show that initializing a fire that is 'in progress' with VIIRS data and a weather simulation based on more recent atmospheric analyses can overcome several issues and improve the simulation of late-developing fires and of later periods (particularly those with growth periods separated by lulls) in a long-lived fire.

Role of buoyant flame dynamics in wildfire spread.

PubMed

Finney, Mark A; Cohen, Jack D; Forthofer, Jason M; McAllister, Sara S; Gollner, Michael J; Gorham, Daniel J; Saito, Kozo; Akafuah, Nelson K; Adam, Brittany A; English, Justin D

2015-08-11

Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively and reduce their environmental, economic, ecological, and climate impacts. Here, we report new experiments conducted at multiple scales that appear to reveal how wildfire spread derives from the tight coupling between flame dynamics induced by buoyancy and fine-particle response to convection. Convective cooling of the fine-sized fuel particles in wildland vegetation is observed to efficiently offset heating by thermal radiation until convective heating by contact with flames and hot gasses occurs. The structure and intermittency of flames that ignite fuel particles were found to correlate with instabilities induced by the strong buoyancy of the flame zone itself. Discovery that ignition in wildfires is critically dependent on nonsteady flame convection governed by buoyant and inertial interaction advances both theory and the physical basis for practical modeling.

Role of buoyant flame dynamics in wildfire spread

PubMed Central

Finney, Mark A.; Cohen, Jack D.; Forthofer, Jason M.; McAllister, Sara S.; Gollner, Michael J.; Gorham, Daniel J.; Saito, Kozo; Akafuah, Nelson K.; Adam, Brittany A.; English, Justin D.

2015-01-01

Large wildfires of increasing frequency and severity threaten local populations and natural resources and contribute carbon emissions into the earth-climate system. Although wildfires have been researched and modeled for decades, no verifiable physical theory of spread is available to form the basis for the precise predictions needed to manage fires more effectively and reduce their environmental, economic, ecological, and climate impacts. Here, we report new experiments conducted at multiple scales that appear to reveal how wildfire spread derives from the tight coupling between flame dynamics induced by buoyancy and fine-particle response to convection. Convective cooling of the fine-sized fuel particles in wildland vegetation is observed to efficiently offset heating by thermal radiation until convective heating by contact with flames and hot gasses occurs. The structure and intermittency of flames that ignite fuel particles were found to correlate with instabilities induced by the strong buoyancy of the flame zone itself. Discovery that ignition in wildfires is critically dependent on nonsteady flame convection governed by buoyant and inertial interaction advances both theory and the physical basis for practical modeling. PMID:26183227

Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Welty, Justin L; Arkle, Robert S

2017-10-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin; Arkle, Robert

2017-01-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Wildfire and the economic value of wilderness recreation

Treesearch

Jeffrey Englin; Thomas P. Holmes; Janet Lutz

2008-01-01

The idea that wildfires play an integral role in maintaining healthy forests has begun to change the ways that scientists, managers, and the general public view fire policy and programs. New approaches to forest management that seek to integrate natural disturbances with the provision of goods and services valued by people impose a greater need for a full accounting of...

Developing a monitoring program for bird populations in the Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona, using citizen observers: Initial stages

Treesearch

Joseph L Ganey; Jose M. Iniguez; Jamie S. Sanderlin; William M. Block

2017-01-01

The Madrean Sky Island region is an ecologically important area harboring exceptional biodiversity, including a unique avifauna that supports a thriving ecotourism industry in southeastern Arizona. This area has been impacted by several large wildfires in recent decades. These wildfires have altered vegetation composition and structure in forests and woodlands, and the...

Designing economic impact assessments for USFS wildfire programs

Treesearch

Karen L. Abt; Robert J. Jr. Huggett; Thomas P. Holmes

2008-01-01

As often happens in the wake of a series of extreme fire seasons, such as those in 2000, 2002 and 2003, federal wildfire policy is being scrutinized and recommendations regarding changes both large and small are prevalent (Stephens and Ruth 2005, Busenberg 2004, Dellasalla et al. 2004, Dombeck et al. 2004). It is common practice for increases in acres burned and in...

An answer to a burning question: what will the Forest Service spend on fire suppression this summer?

Treesearch

Karen L. Abt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Krista M. Gebert

2009-01-01

Wildfire management has become an ever-larger part of Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other land management agency appropriations and expenditures. In fiscal year (FY) 2008, the wildfire program budget was nearly 44 percent of initial Forest Service discretionary appropriations (U.S. Congress 2008). Total expenditures for suppression eventually...

Utility of remotely sensed imagery for assessing the impact of salvage logging after forest fires

Treesearch

Sarah A. Lewis; Peter R. Robichaud; Andrew T. Hudak; Brian Austin; Robert J. Liebermann

2012-01-01

Remotely sensed imagery provides a useful tool for land managers to assess the extent and severity of post-wildfire salvage logging disturbance. This investigation uses high resolution QuickBird and National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery to map soil exposure after ground-based salvage operations. Three wildfires with varying post-fire salvage activities...

Szendro - type Integrated Vegetation Fire Management--Wildfire Management Program from Hungary

Treesearch

Ágoston Restás

2006-01-01

Szendrő Fire Department is located in the northeastern part of Hungary. The main task is to fight against wildfire and mitigate the impact of fire at the Aggtelek National Park -- which belongs to the UNESCO World Heritage list. Because of greater effectiveness, in 2004 the Fire Department started a project named Integrated Vegetation Fire Management (IVFM)....

Fuels Management Reduces Tree Mortality from Wildfires In Southeastern United States

Treesearch

Kenneth W. Outcalt; Dale D. Wade

2004-01-01

The objective was to determine the effectiveness of a regular prescribed burning program for reducing tree mortality in southern pine forests burned by wildfire. This study was conducted on public and industry lands in northeast Florida. On the Osceola National Forest, mean mortality was 3.5% in natural stands and 43% in plantations two growing seasons after a June...

Overcoming Barriers to Firewise Actions by Residents. Final Report to Joint Fire Science Program

Treesearch

James D. Absher; Jerry J. Vaske; Katie M. Lyon

2013-01-01

Encouraging the public to take action (e.g., creating defensible space) that can reduce the likelihood of wildfire damage and decrease the likelihood of injury is a common approach to increasing wildfire safety and damage mitigation. This study was designed to improve our understanding of both individual and community actions that homeowners currently do or might take...

Predicting soil quality indices with near infrared analysis in a wildfire chronosequence.

PubMed

Cécillon, Lauric; Cassagne, Nathalie; Czarnes, Sonia; Gros, Raphaël; Vennetier, Michel; Brun, Jean-Jacques

2009-01-15

We investigated the power of near infrared (NIR) analysis for the quantitative assessment of soil quality in a wildfire chronosequence. The effect of wildfire disturbance and soil engineering activity of earthworms on soil organic matter quality was first assessed with principal component analysis of NIR spectra. Three soil quality indices were further calculated using an adaptation of the method proposed by Velasquez et al. [Velasquez, E., Lavelle, P., Andrade, M. GISQ, a multifunctional indicator of soil quality. Soil Biol Biochem 2007; 39: 3066-3080.], each one addressing an ecosystem service provided by soils: organic matter storage, nutrient supply and biological activity. Partial least squares regression models were developed to test the predicting ability of NIR analysis for these soil quality indices. All models reached coefficients of determination above 0.90 and ratios of performance to deviation above 2.8. This finding provides new opportunities for the monitoring of soil quality, using NIR scanning of soil samples.

Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift

PubMed Central

Kettridge, N.; Turetsky, M. R.; Sherwood, J. H.; Thompson, D. K.; Miller, C. A.; Benscoter, B. W.; Flannigan, M. D.; Wotton, B. M.; Waddington, J. M.

2015-01-01

Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon. PMID:25623290

Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

PubMed

Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

2015-01-27

Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

Extreme air pollution events in Hokkaido, Japan, traced back to early snowmelt and large-scale wildfires over East Eurasia: Case studies.

PubMed

Yasunari, Teppei J; Kim, Kyu-Myong; da Silva, Arlindo M; Hayasaki, Masamitsu; Akiyama, Masayuki; Murao, Naoto

2018-04-25

To identify the unusual climate conditions and their connections to air pollutions in a remote area due to wildfires, we examine three anomalous large-scale wildfires in May 2003, April 2008, and July 2014 over East Eurasia, as well as how products of those wildfires reached an urban city, Sapporo, in the northern part of Japan (Hokkaido), significantly affecting the air quality. NASA's MERRA-2 (the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) aerosol re-analysis data closely reproduced the PM 2.5 variations in Sapporo for the case of smoke arrival in July 2014. Results show that all three cases featured unusually early snowmelt in East Eurasia, accompanied by warmer and drier surface conditions in the months leading to the fires, inducing long-lasting soil dryness and producing climate and environmental conditions conducive to active wildfires. Due to prevailing anomalous synoptic-scale atmospheric motions, smoke from those fires eventually reached a remote area, Hokkaido, and worsened the air quality in Sapporo. In future studies, continuous monitoring of the timing of Eurasian snowmelt and the air quality from the source regions to remote regions, coupled with the analysis of atmospheric and surface conditions, may be essential in more accurately predicting the effects of wildfires on air quality.

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fire spread estimation on forest wildfire using ensemble kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syarifah, Wardatus; Apriliani, Erna

2018-04-01

Wildfire is one of the most frequent disasters in the world, for example forest wildfire, causing population of forest decrease. Forest wildfire, whether naturally occurring or prescribed, are potential risks for ecosystems and human settlements. These risks can be managed by monitoring the weather, prescribing fires to limit available fuel, and creating firebreaks. With computer simulations we can predict and explore how fires may spread. The model of fire spread on forest wildfire was established to determine the fire properties. The fire spread model is prepared based on the equation of the diffusion reaction model. There are many methods to estimate the spread of fire. The Kalman Filter Ensemble Method is a modified estimation method of the Kalman Filter algorithm that can be used to estimate linear and non-linear system models. In this research will apply Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to estimate the spread of fire on forest wildfire. Before applying the EnKF method, the fire spread model will be discreted using finite difference method. At the end, the analysis obtained illustrated by numerical simulation using software. The simulation results show that the Ensemble Kalman Filter method is closer to the system model when the ensemble value is greater, while the covariance value of the system model and the smaller the measurement.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-12-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the Wildland Urban Interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-09-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting more than 2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances further than 10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

Modelling Spatial Patterns and Drivers of Wildfires in Honduras Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdez Vasquez, M. C.; Chen, C. F.; Chiang, S. H.

2016-12-01

Forests in Honduras are one of the most important resources as they provide a wide range of environmental, economic, and social benefits. However, they are endangered as a result of the relentless occurrence of wildfires during the dry season. Despite the knowledge acquired by the population concerning the effects of wildfires, the frequency is increasing, a pattern attributable to the numerous ignition sources linked to human activity. The purpose of this study is to integrate the wildfire occurrences throughout the 2010-2015 period with a series of anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic variables using the random forest algorithm (RF). We use a series of variables that represent the anthropogenic activity, the flammability of vegetation, climatic conditions, and topography. To represent the anthropogenic activity, we included the continuous distances to rivers, roads, and settlements. To characterize the vegetation flammability, we used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized multi-band drought index (NMDI) acquired from MODIS surface reflectance data. Additionally, we included the topographical variables elevation, slope, and solar radiation derived from the ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM V2). To represent the climatic conditions, we employed the land surface temperature (LST) product from the MODIS sensor and the WorldClim precipitation data. We analyzed the explanatory variables through native RF variable importance analysis and jackknife test, and the results revealed that the dry fuel conditions and low precipitation combined with the proximity to non-paved roads were the major drivers of wildfires. Furthermore, we predicted the areas with highest wildfire susceptibility, which are located mainly in the central and eastern regions of the country, within coniferous and mixed forests. Results acquired were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the point biserial correlation and both validation metrics showed satisfactory agreement with the test data. Predictions of forest fire risk and its spatial variability are important instruments for proper management and the results acquired can lead to enhanced preventive measures to minimize risk and reduce the impacts caused by wildfires.

Collaboration in Action: Office of Research and Development ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The "Collaboration in Action: US EPA's Office of Research and Develop - Current Wildfire Research Program" was invited by the USDA's US Forest Service's Scientific Executive Committee to provide USFS scientific leadership active and potential future opportunities for cooperation/collaboration. Health impacts of wildfire smoke merit the attention and action of the US EPA and current research is supported in the ACE and SHC Research Programs. Wildland fire smoke research has taken on greater importance because the 1) contribution of wildland fire PM emissions relative to total US PM emissions is increasing, 2) the population health impacts are measurable and costly, 3) vulnerable and sensitive populations at-risk are increasing attendant to our aging U.S. population and the increasing area of the wildland-urban interface, and 4) health impacts of smoke could be minimized by identifying at-risk individuals and reducing their exposures. Examples are provided. The "Collaboration in Action: US EPA's Office of Research and Develop - Current Wildfire Research Program" was invited by the USDA's US Forest Service's Scientific Executive Committee to provide USFS scientific leadership active and potential future opportunities for cooperation/collaboration.

Who Among the Elderly Is Most Vulnerable to Exposure to and Health Risks of Fine Particulate Matter From Wildfire Smoke?

PubMed

Liu, Jia Coco; Wilson, Ander; Mickley, Loretta J; Ebisu, Keita; Sulprizio, Melissa P; Wang, Yun; Peng, Roger D; Yue, Xu; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L

2017-09-15

Wildfires burn more than 7 million acres in the United States annually, according to the US Forest Service. Little is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to health risks from wildfire smoke, including those associated with fine particulate matter. We estimated exposure to fine particles specifically from wildfires, as well as the associations between the presence of wildfire-specific fine particles and the amount of hospital admissions for respiratory causes among subpopulations older than 65 years of age in the western United States (2004-2009). Compared with other populations, higher fractions of persons who were black, lived in urban counties, and lived in California were exposed to more than 1 smoke wave (high-pollution episodes from wildfire smoke). The risks of respiratory admissions on smoke-wave days compared with non-smoke-wave days increased 10.4% (95% confidence interval: 1.9, 19.6) for women and 21.7% (95% confidence interval: 0.4, 47.3) for blacks. Our findings suggest that increased risks of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke was significantly higher for women than for men (10.4% vs. 3.7%), blacks than whites (21.7% vs. 6.9%), and, although associations were not statistically different, people in lower-education counties than higher-educated counties (12.7% vs. 6.1%). Our study raised important environmental justice issues that can inform public health programs and wildfire management. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of wildfires, evidence on vulnerable subpopulations can inform disaster preparedness and the understanding of climate change consequences. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

NOAA's National Air Quality Prediction and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for NGGPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, I.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Wilczak, J. M.; Upadhayay, S.; daSilva, A.; Lu, C. H.; Grell, G. A.; Pierce, R. B.

2017-12-01

NOAA's operational air quality predictions of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and wildfire smoke over the United States and airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states are distributed at http://airquality.weather.gov. The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) providing these predictions was updated in June 2017. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are now produced using the system linking the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version 5.0.2 with meteorological inputs from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) version 4. Predictions of PM2.5 include intermittent dust emissions and wildfire emissions from an updated version of BlueSky system. For the latter, the CMAQ system is initialized by rerunning it over the previous 24 hours to include wildfire emissions at the time when they were observed from the satellites. Post processing to reduce the bias in PM2.5 prediction was updated using the Kalman filter analog (KFAN) technique. Dust related aerosol species at the CMAQ domain lateral boundaries now come from the NEMS Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) v2 predictions. Further development of NAQFC includes testing of CMAQ predictions to 72 hours, Canadian fire emissions data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the KFAN technique to reduce bias in ozone predictions. NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Predictions System (NGGPS) with an aerosol and gaseous atmospheric composition component to improve and integrate aerosol and ozone predictions and evaluate their impacts on physics, data assimilation and weather prediction. Efforts are underway to improve cloud microphysics, investigate aerosol effects and include representations of atmospheric composition of varying complexity into NGGPS: from the operational ozone parameterization, GOCART aerosols, with simplified ozone chemistry, to CMAQ chemistry with aerosol modules. We will present progress on community building, planning and development of NGGPS.

Spatial and temporal variability in the effects of wildfire and drought on thermal habitat for a desert trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schultz, Luke; Heck, Michael; Hockman-Wert, David; Allai, T; Wengerd, Seth J.; Cook, NA; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

We studied how drought and an associated stressor, wildfire, influenced stream flow permanence and thermal regimes in a Great Basin stream network. We quantified these responses by collecting information with a spatially extensive network of data loggers. To understand the effects of wildfire specifically, we used data from 4 additional sites that were installed prior to a 2012 fire that burned nearly the entire watershed. Within the sampled network 73 reaches were classified as perennial, yet only 51 contained surface water during logger installation in 2014. Among the sites with pre-fire temperature data, we observed 2–4 °C increases in maximum daily stream temperature relative to an unburned control in the month following the fire; effects (elevated up to 6.6 °C) appeared to persist for at least one year. When observed August mean temperatures in 2015 (the peak of regionally severe drought) were compared to those predicted by a regional stream temperature model, we observed deviations of −2.1°-3.5°. The model under-predicted and over-predicted August mean by > 1 °C in 54% and 10% of sites, respectively, and deviance from predicted was negatively associated with elevation. Combined drought and post-fire conditions appeared to greatly restrict thermally-suitable habitat for Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi).

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century

PubMed Central

Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2013-01-01

We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046–2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25–0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980–2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24–124% in area burned using regressions and 63–169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46–70% and black carbon by 20–27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84th percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest. PMID:24015109

Hydrological Effects of Recent Wildfires in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J.; Stewart, R. D.

2017-12-01

In 2016, intense wildfires occurred throughout the southern Appalachian Mountains region due to severe drought conditions and high fuel loads. Most previous work on the effects of forest wildfire has concentrated on the western United States, and has shown that wildfires can induce a number of physical, chemical and biological changes in soils, including creating water repellency (hydrophobicity), altering color, decreasing structural stability, and altering nutrient availability. Drought intensity and wildfire activity are both predicted to increase in the southeastern United States, making it important to understand hydrological effects of wildfire in the forests of this region. In this study, we evaluated the effect of wildfire on soil hydrophobicity and soil water storage in two locations: Mount Pleasant Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, and Chimney Rock State Park, North Carolina. In each location unburned, moderately burned, and heavily burned sites were selected. Soil hydrophobicity was measured both in the field using water drop penetration time method at 0 cm, 2 cm, and 5 cm depth, and in the lab using WDPT method and water-solid contact angle method. Soil water content and unsaturated infiltration processes were also measured in the field using mini-disk infiltrometers. The results showed that hydrophobicity was detected after wildfires in both southeastern forests: the Mount Pleasant site had the highest hydrophobic layer in surface layer, while the Chimney Rock site had highest hydrophobicity at the 2 cm depth. Lab results were in accordance with the field results, and in both cases hysteresis between hydrophobicity and soil water content was observed. Burned soils had consistently lower soil water contents than unburned soils. The burned soils in the Mount Pleasant site had lower infiltration rates than the unburned sites, whereas in the Chimney Rock site the burned soils had higher infiltration rates. We hypothesize that the differences between the two sites may be related to the positions of hydrophobic layers in each (i.e., surface versus subsurface). Altogether, these results highlight the hydrological impacts of unprecedented wildfire activity in the southern Appalachians.

Validation of coupled atmosphere-fire behavior models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bossert, J.E.; Reisner, J.M.; Linn, R.R.

1998-12-31

Recent advances in numerical modeling and computer power have made it feasible to simulate the dynamical interaction and feedback between the heat and turbulence induced by wildfires and the local atmospheric wind and temperature fields. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, the authors have developed a modeling system that includes this interaction by coupling a high resolution atmospheric dynamics model, HIGRAD, with a fire behavior model, BEHAVE, to predict the spread of wildfires. The HIGRAD/BEHAVE model is run at very high resolution to properly resolve the fire/atmosphere interaction. At present, these coupled wildfire model simulations are computationally intensive. The additional complexitymore » of these models require sophisticated methods for assuring their reliability in real world applications. With this in mind, a substantial part of the research effort is directed at model validation. Several instrumented prescribed fires have been conducted with multi-agency support and participation from chaparral, marsh, and scrub environments in coastal areas of Florida and inland California. In this paper, the authors first describe the data required to initialize the components of the wildfire modeling system. Then they present results from one of the Florida fires, and discuss a strategy for further testing and improvement of coupled weather/wildfire models.« less

Wildfire in the Critical Zone: Pyro-Geomorphic Feedbacks in Upland Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Inbar, A.; Metzen, D.; Van der Sant, R.; Lane, P. N. J.; Nyman, P.

2017-12-01

Wildfire often triggers a dramatic geomorphic response, with erosion rates several orders of magnitude greater than background rates. The fact that wildfire is linked to increased soil erosion is well established, but could it also work the other way around? Is it possible that, over time, soil erosion could lead to an increase in wildfire? The proposed mechanism for this is a potential positive feedback between post-fire soil erosion, soil depth, and forest flammability. More fire-related erosion may, over time, lead to less soil water holding capacity, more open vegetation with drier fuels, more fire, and in turn more fire related erosion. These pyro-geomorphic feedbacks may help explain the co-evolved soil-vegetation-fire systems that are observed in the landscape. More broadly, the concept of "wildfire in the critical zone", with a greater emphasis on the interactions between fire, vegetation, hydrology, and geomorphology, may help us understand and predict the trajectory of change as the vegetation-soil-fire system responds and adjusts to the new climate forcing. This presentation will combine an extensive soil, vegetation, and post fire erosion experimental dataset, with conceptual and numerical modelling, to evaluate the significance of the potential pyro-geomorphic feedbacks described above.

A Home Ignition Assessment Model Applied to Structures in the Wildland-Urban Interface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biswas, Kaushik; Werth, David; Gupta, Narendra

2013-01-01

The issue of exterior fire threat to buildings, from either wildfires in the wildland-urban interface or neighboring structure fires, is critically important. To address this, theWildfire Ignition Resistant Home Design (WIRHD) program was initiated. The WIRHD program developed a tool, theWildFIREWizard, that will allow homeowners to estimate the external fire threat to their homes based on specific features and characteristics of the homes and yards. The software then makes recommendations to reduce the threat. The inputs include the structural and material features of the home and information about any ignition sources or flammable objects in its immediate vicinity, known asmore » the home ignition zone. The tool comprises an ignition assessment model that performs explicit calculations of the radiant and convective heating of the building envelope from the potential ignition sources. This article describes a series of material ignition and flammability tests that were performed to calibrate and/or validate the ignition assessment model. The tests involved exposing test walls with different external siding types to radiant heating and/or direct flame contact.The responses of the test walls were used to determine the conditions leading to melting, ignition, or any other mode of failure of the walls. Temperature data were used to verify the model predictions of temperature rises and ignition times of the test walls.« less

Targeting Forest Management through Fire and Erosion Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, William J.; Miller, Mary Ellen; MacDonald, Lee H.

2013-04-01

Forests deliver a number of ecosystem services, including clean water. When forests are disturbed by wildfire, the timing and quantity of runoff can be altered, and the quality can be severely degraded. A modeling study for about 1500 km2 in the Upper Mokelumne River Watershed in California was conducted to determine the risk of wildfire and the associated potential sediment delivery should a wildfire occur, and to calculate the potential reduction in sediment delivery that might result from fuel reduction treatments. The first step was to predict wildfire severity and probability of occurrence under current vegetation conditions with FlamMap fire prediction tool. FlamMap uses current vegetation, topography, and wind characteristics to predict the speed, flame length, and direction of a simulated flame front for each 30-m pixel. As the first step in the erosion modeling, a geospatial interface for the WEPP model (GeoWEPP) was used to delineate approximately 6-ha hillslope polygons for the study area. The flame length values from FlamMap were then aggregated for each hillslope polygon to yield a predicted fire intensity. Fire intensity and pre-fire vegetation conditions were used to estimate fire severity (either unburned, low, moderate or high). The fire severity was combined with soil properties from the STATSGO database to build the vegetation and soil files needed to run WEPP for each polygon. Eight different stochastic climates were generated to account for the weather variability within the basin. A modified batching version of GeoWEPP was used to predict the first-year post-fire sediment yield from each hillslope and subwatershed. Estimated sediment yields ranged from 0 to more than 100 Mg/ha, and were typical of observed values. The polygons that generated the greatest amount of sediment or that were critical for reducing fire spread were identified, and these were "treated" by reducing the amount of fuel available for a wildfire. The erosion associated with these fuel treatments was estimated using WEPP. FlamMap and WEPP were run a second time to determine the extent to which the imposed treatments reduced fire intensity, fire severity, and the predicted sediment yields. The results allowed managers to quantify the net reduction in sediment delivery due to the prescribed treatments. The modeling also identified those polygons with the greatest net decline in sediment delivery, with the expectation that these polygons would have the highest priority for fuel reduction treatments. An economic value can be assigned to the predicted net change in sediment delivered to a reservoir or a specified decline in water quality. The estimated avoided costs due to the reduction in sediment delivery can help justify the optimized fuel treatments.

On The Usage Of Fire Smoke Emissions In An Air Quality Forecasting System To Reduce Particular Matter Forecasting Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H. C.; Pan, L.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; DiMego, G.; Huang, J.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

2016-12-01

Wildfires contribute to air quality problems not only towards primary emissions of particular matters (PM) but also emitted ozone precursor gases that can lead to elevated ozone concentration. Wildfires are unpredictable and can be ignited by natural causes such as lightning or accidently by human negligent behavior such as live cigarette. Although wildfire impacts on the air quality can be studied by collecting fire information after events, it is extremely difficult to predict future occurrence and behavior of wildfires for real-time air quality forecasts. Because of the time constraints of operational air quality forecasting, assumption of future day's fire behavior often have to be made based on observed fire information in the past. The United States (U.S.) NOAA/NWS built the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) based on the U.S. EPA CMAQ to provide air quality forecast guidance (prediction) publicly. State and local forecasters use the forecast guidance to issue air quality alerts in their area. The NAQFC fine particulates (PM2.5) prediction includes emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, as well as natural sources such as dust storms and fires. The fire emission input to the NAQFC is derived from the NOAA NESDIS HMS fire and smoke detection product and the emission module of the US Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. This study focuses on the error estimation of NAQFC PM2.5 predictions resulting from fire emissions. The comparisons between the NAQFC modeled PM2.5 and the EPA AirNow surface observation show that present operational NAQFC fire emissions assumption can lead to a huge error in PM2.5 prediction as fire emissions are sometimes placed at wrong location and time. This PM2.5 prediction error can be propagated from the fire source in the Northwest U.S. to downstream areas as far as the Southeast U.S. From this study, a new procedure has been identified to minimize the aforementioned error. An additional 24 hours reanalysis-run of NAQFC using same-day observed fire emission are being tested. Preliminary results have shown that this procedure greatly improves the PM2.5 predictions at both nearby and downstream areas from fire sources. The 24 hours reanalysis-run is critical and necessary especially during extreme fire events to provide better PM2.5 predictions.

Land management practices associated with house loss in wildfires.

PubMed

Gibbons, Philip; van Bommel, Linda; Gill, A Malcolm; Cary, Geoffrey J; Driscoll, Don A; Bradstock, Ross A; Knight, Emma; Moritz, Max A; Stephens, Scott L; Lindenmayer, David B

2012-01-01

Losses to life and property from unplanned fires (wildfires) are forecast to increase because of population growth in peri-urban areas and climate change. In response, there have been moves to increase fuel reduction--clearing, prescribed burning, biomass removal and grazing--to afford greater protection to peri-urban communities in fire-prone regions. But how effective are these measures? Severe wildfires in southern Australia in 2009 presented a rare opportunity to address this question empirically. We predicted that modifying several fuels could theoretically reduce house loss by 76%-97%, which would translate to considerably fewer wildfire-related deaths. However, maximum levels of fuel reduction are unlikely to be feasible at every house for logistical and environmental reasons. Significant fuel variables in a logistic regression model we selected to predict house loss were (in order of decreasing effect): (1) the cover of trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses, (2) whether trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses was predominantly remnant or planted, (3) the upwind distance from houses to groups of trees or shrubs, (4) the upwind distance from houses to public forested land (irrespective of whether it was managed for nature conservation or logging), (5) the upwind distance from houses to prescribed burning within 5 years, and (6) the number of buildings or structures within 40 m of houses. All fuel treatments were more effective if undertaken closer to houses. For example, 15% fewer houses were destroyed if prescribed burning occurred at the observed minimum distance from houses (0.5 km) rather than the observed mean distance from houses (8.5 km). Our results imply that a shift in emphasis away from broad-scale fuel-reduction to intensive fuel treatments close to property will more effectively mitigate impacts from wildfires on peri-urban communities.

Land Management Practices Associated with House Loss in Wildfires

PubMed Central

Gibbons, Philip; van Bommel, Linda; Gill, A. Malcolm; Cary, Geoffrey J.; Driscoll, Don A.; Bradstock, Ross A.; Knight, Emma; Moritz, Max A.; Stephens, Scott L.; Lindenmayer, David B.

2012-01-01

Losses to life and property from unplanned fires (wildfires) are forecast to increase because of population growth in peri-urban areas and climate change. In response, there have been moves to increase fuel reduction—clearing, prescribed burning, biomass removal and grazing—to afford greater protection to peri-urban communities in fire-prone regions. But how effective are these measures? Severe wildfires in southern Australia in 2009 presented a rare opportunity to address this question empirically. We predicted that modifying several fuels could theoretically reduce house loss by 76%–97%, which would translate to considerably fewer wildfire-related deaths. However, maximum levels of fuel reduction are unlikely to be feasible at every house for logistical and environmental reasons. Significant fuel variables in a logistic regression model we selected to predict house loss were (in order of decreasing effect): (1) the cover of trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses, (2) whether trees and shrubs within 40 m of houses was predominantly remnant or planted, (3) the upwind distance from houses to groups of trees or shrubs, (4) the upwind distance from houses to public forested land (irrespective of whether it was managed for nature conservation or logging), (5) the upwind distance from houses to prescribed burning within 5 years, and (6) the number of buildings or structures within 40 m of houses. All fuel treatments were more effective if undertaken closer to houses. For example, 15% fewer houses were destroyed if prescribed burning occurred at the observed minimum distance from houses (0.5 km) rather than the observed mean distance from houses (8.5 km). Our results imply that a shift in emphasis away from broad-scale fuel-reduction to intensive fuel treatments close to property will more effectively mitigate impacts from wildfires on peri-urban communities. PMID:22279530

Decreases in Soil Moisture and Organic Matter Quality Suppress Microbial Decomposition Following a Boreal Forest Fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holden, Sandra R.; Berhe, Asmeret A.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

Climate warming is projected to increase the frequency and severity of wildfires in boreal forests, and increased wildfire activity may alter the large soil carbon (C) stocks in boreal forests. Changes in boreal soil C stocks that result from increased wildfire activity will be regulated in part by the response of microbial decomposition to fire, but post-fire changes in microbial decomposition are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the response of microbial decomposition to a boreal forest fire in interior Alaska and test the mechanisms that control post-fire changes in microbial decomposition. We used a reciprocal transplant between a recently burnedmore » boreal forest stand and a late successional boreal forest stand to test how post-fire changes in abiotic conditions, soil organic matter (SOM) composition, and soil microbial communities influence microbial decomposition. We found that SOM decomposing at the burned site lost 30.9% less mass over two years than SOM decomposing at the unburned site, indicating that post-fire changes in abiotic conditions suppress microbial decomposition. Our results suggest that moisture availability is one abiotic factor that constrains microbial decomposition in recently burned forests. In addition, we observed that burned SOM decomposed more slowly than unburned SOM, but the exact nature of SOM changes in the recently burned stand are unclear. Finally, we found no evidence that post-fire changes in soil microbial community composition significantly affect decomposition. Taken together, our study has demonstrated that boreal forest fires can suppress microbial decomposition due to post-fire changes in abiotic factors and the composition of SOM. Models that predict the consequences of increased wildfires for C storage in boreal forests may increase their predictive power by incorporating the observed negative response of microbial decomposition to boreal wildfires.« less

Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Dar A.; Church, Richard; Ustin, Susan L.; Brass, James A. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated into standard fuel models accessible to the FARSITE fire spread simulator. The FARSITE model and BEHAVE are considered industry standards for fire behavior analysis. Anderson level fuels map, generated using a binary decision tree classifier are available for multiple dates in the Santa Monica Mountains and at least one date for Santa Barbara. Fuel maps that will fill in the areas between Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains study sites are in progress, as part of a NASA Regional Earth Science Application Center, the Southern California Wildfire Hazard Center. Species-level maps, were supplied to fire managing agencies (Los Angeles County Fire, California Department of Forestry). Research results were published extensively in the refereed and non-refereed literature. Educational outreach included funding of several graduate students, undergraduate intern training and an article featured in the California Alliance for Minorities Program (CAMP) Quarterly Journal.

A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short, K. C.

2013-07-01

The statistical analysis of wildfire activity is a critical component of national wildfire planning, operations, and research in the United States (US). However, there are multiple federal, state, and local entities with wildfire protection and reporting responsibilities in the US, and no single, unified system of wildfire record-keeping exists. To conduct even the most rudimentary interagency analyses of wildfire numbers and area burned from the authoritative systems of record, one must harvest records from dozens of disparate databases with inconsistent information content. The onus is then on the user to check for and purge redundant records of the same fire (i.e. multijurisdictional incidents with responses reported by several agencies or departments) after pooling data from different sources. Here we describe our efforts to acquire, standardize, error-check, compile, scrub, and evaluate the completeness of US federal, state, and local wildfire records from 1992-2011 for the national, interagency Fire Program Analysis (FPA) application. The resulting FPA Fire-occurrence Database (FPA FOD) includes nearly 1.6 million records from the 20 yr period, with values for at least the following core data elements: location at least as precise as a Public Land Survey System section (2.6 km2 grid), discovery date, and final fire size. The FPA FOD is publicly available from the Research Data Archive of the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (doi:10.2737/RDS-2013-0009). While necessarily incomplete in some aspects, the database is intended to facilitate fairly high-resolution geospatial analysis of US wildfire activity over the past two decades, based on available information from the authoritative systems of record.

A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short, K. C.

2014-01-01

The statistical analysis of wildfire activity is a critical component of national wildfire planning, operations, and research in the United States (US). However, there are multiple federal, state, and local entities with wildfire protection and reporting responsibilities in the US, and no single, unified system of wildfire record keeping exists. To conduct even the most rudimentary interagency analyses of wildfire numbers and area burned from the authoritative systems of record, one must harvest records from dozens of disparate databases with inconsistent information content. The onus is then on the user to check for and purge redundant records of the same fire (i.e., multijurisdictional incidents with responses reported by several agencies or departments) after pooling data from different sources. Here we describe our efforts to acquire, standardize, error-check, compile, scrub, and evaluate the completeness of US federal, state, and local wildfire records from 1992-2011 for the national, interagency Fire Program Analysis (FPA) application. The resulting FPA Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA FOD) includes nearly 1.6 million records from the 20 yr period, with values for at least the following core data elements: location, at least as precise as a Public Land Survey System section (2.6 km2 grid), discovery date, and final fire size. The FPA FOD is publicly available from the Research Data Archive of the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (doi:10.2737/RDS-2013-0009). While necessarily incomplete in some aspects, the database is intended to facilitate fairly high-resolution geospatial analysis of US wildfire activity over the past two decades, based on available information from the authoritative systems of record.

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America

PubMed Central

Falk, Donald A.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread. PMID:29244839

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America.

PubMed

Kitzberger, Thomas; Falk, Donald A; Westerling, Anthony L; Swetnam, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread.

Collaborative Approaches to Increase the Utility of Spatial Data for the Wildfire Management Community Through NASA's Applied Remote Sensing Training Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCullum, A. J. K.; Schmidt, C.; Blevins, B.; Weber, K.; Schnase, J. L.; Carroll, M.; Prados, A. I.

2015-12-01

The utility of spatial data products and tools to assess risk and effectively manage wildfires has increased, highlighting the need for communicating information about these new capabilities to decision makers, resource managers, and community leaders. NASA's Applied Remote Sensing Training (ARSET) program works directly with agencies and policy makers to develop in-person and online training courses that teach end users how to access, visualize, and apply NASA Earth Science data in their profession. The expansion of ARSET into wildfire applications began in 2015 with a webinar and subsequent in-person training hosted in collaboration with Idaho State University's (ISU) GIS Training and Research Center (TReC). These trainings featured presentations from the USDA Forest Service's Remote Sensing Training and Applications Center, the Land Processes DAAC, Northwest Nazarene University, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and ISU's GIS TReC. The webinar focused on providing land managers, non-governmental organizations, and international management agencies with an overview of 1) remote sensing platforms for wildfire applications, 2) products for pre- and post-fire planning and assessment, 3) the use of terrain data, 4) new techniques and technologies such as Unmanned Aircraft Systems and the Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP), and 5) the RECOVER Decision Support System. This training highlighted online tools that engage the wildfire community through collaborative monitoring and assessment efforts. Webinar attendance included 278 participants from 178 organizations in 42 countries and 33 US states. The majority of respondents (93%) from a post-webinar survey indicated they displayed improvement in their understanding of specific remote-sensing data products appropriate for their work needs. With collaborative efforts between federal, state, and local agencies and academic institutions, increased use of NASA Earth Observations may lead to improved near real-time decision making and long-term wildfire mitigation and management.

Willingness-to-pay function for two fuel treatments to reduce wildfire acreage burned: A scope test and comparison of white and hispanic households

Treesearch

John B. Loomis; Hung Le Trong; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

We estimate a marginal benefit function for using prescribed burning and mechanical fuel reduction programs to reduce acres burned by wildfire in three states. Since each state had different acre reductions, a statistically significant coefficient on the reduction in acres burned is also a split sample scope test frequently used as an indicator of the internal validity...

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

2008-12-01

We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for california wildfire, and their intersection with a range of development scenarios for California.

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been widely used for assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively.

BehavePlus fire modeling system: Past, present, and future

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2007-01-01

Use of mathematical fire models to predict fire behavior and fire effects plays an important supporting role in wildland fire management. When used in conjunction with personal fire experience and a basic understanding of the fire models, predictions can be successfully applied to a range of fire management activities including wildfire behavior prediction, prescribed...

Towards Data-Driven Simulations of Wildfire Spread using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Bart, J.; Ricci, S. M.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.; Duchaine, F.; Morel, T.

2012-12-01

Real-time predictions of a propagating wildfire remain a challenging task because the problem involves both multi-physics and multi-scales. The propagation speed of wildfires, also called the rate of spread (ROS), is indeed determined by complex interactions between pyrolysis, combustion and flow dynamics, atmospheric dynamics occurring at vegetation, topographical and meteorological scales. Current operational fire spread models are mainly based on a semi-empirical parameterization of the ROS in terms of vegetation, topographical and meteorological properties. For the fire spread simulation to be predictive and compatible with operational applications, the uncertainty on the ROS model should be reduced. As recent progress made in remote sensing technology provides new ways to monitor the fire front position, a promising approach to overcome the difficulties found in wildfire spread simulations is to integrate fire modeling and fire sensing technologies using data assimilation (DA). For this purpose we have developed a prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator in order to provide optimal estimates of poorly known model parameters [*]. The data-driven simulation capability is adapted for more realistic wildfire spread : it considers a regional-scale fire spread model that is informed by observations of the fire front location. An Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm (EnKF) based on a parallel computing platform (OpenPALM) was implemented in order to perform a multi-parameter sequential estimation where wind magnitude and direction are in addition to vegetation properties (see attached figure). The EnKF algorithm shows its good ability to track a small-scale grassland fire experiment and ensures a good accounting for the sensitivity of the simulation outcomes to the control parameters. As a conclusion, it was shown that data assimilation is a promising approach to more accurately forecast time-varying wildfire spread conditions as new airborne-like observations of the fire front location get available. [*] Rochoux, M.C., Delmotte, B., Cuenot, B., Ricci, S., and Trouvé, A. (2012) "Regional-scale simulations of wildland fire spread informed by real-time flame front observations", Proc. Combust. Inst., 34, in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2012.06.090 EnKF-based tracking of small-scale grassland fire experiment, with estimation of wind and fuel parameters.

Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People's Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Timothy W.; Bolin, Bob

2009-09-01

This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona’s White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people’s social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.

Situating hazard vulnerability: people's negotiations with wildfire environments in the U.S. southwest.

PubMed

Collins, Timothy W; Bolin, Bob

2009-09-01

This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona's White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people's social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.

Science & Technology Review November 2002

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Budil, K

This months issue of Science and Technology Review has the following articles: (1) High-Tech Help for Fighting Wildfires--Commentary by Leland W. Younker; (2) This Model Can Take the Heat--A physics-based simulation program to combat wildfires combines the capabilities and resources of Lawrence Livermore and Los Alamos national laboratories. (3) The Best and the Brightest Come to Livermore--The Lawrence Fellowship Program attracts the most sought-after postdoctoral researchers to the Laboratory. (4) A view to Kill--Livermore sensors are aimed at the ''kill'' vehicle when it intercepts an incoming ballistic missile. (5) 50th Anniversary Highlight--Biological Research Evolves at Livermore--Livermore's biological research program keepsmore » pace with emerging national issues, from studying the effects of ionizing radiation to detecting agents of biological warfare.« less

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems.

PubMed

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the US Forest Service's historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25-degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This result is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship's utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T.; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the USDA Forest Service’s historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25 degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship’s utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

Meta-analysis of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity recovery following wildland fire: Applications for hydrologic model parameterization and resilience assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, Brian A.; Martin, Deborah

2017-01-01

Hydrologic recovery after wildfire is critical for restoring the ecosystem services of protecting of human lives and infrastructure from hazards and delivering water supply of sufficient quality and quantity. Recovery of soil-hydraulic properties, such as field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs), is a key factor for assessing the duration of watershed-scale flash flood and debris flow risks after wildfire. Despite the crucial role of Kfs in parameterizing numerical hydrologic models to predict the magnitude of postwildfire run-off and erosion, existing quantitative relations to predict Kfsrecovery with time since wildfire are lacking. Here, we conduct meta-analyses of 5 datasets from the literature that measure or estimate Kfs with time since wildfire for longer than 3-year duration. The meta-analyses focus on fitting 2 quantitative relations (linear and non-linear logistic) to explain trends in Kfs temporal recovery. The 2 relations adequately described temporal recovery except for 1 site where macropore flow dominated infiltration and Kfs recovery. This work also suggests that Kfs can have low hydrologic resistance (large postfire changes), and moderate to high hydrologic stability (recovery time relative to disturbance recurrence interval) and resilience (recovery of hydrologic function and provision of ecosystem services). Future Kfs relations could more explicitly incorporate processes such as soil-water repellency, ground cover and soil structure regeneration, macropore recovery, and vegetation regrowth.

Effects of fire on chaparral soils in Arizona and California and postfire management implications

Treesearch

Leonard F. DeBano

1989-01-01

Wildfires and prescribed burns are common throughout Arizona and California chaparral. Predicting fire effects requires understanding fire behavior, estimating soil heating, and predicting changes in soil properties. Substantial quantities of some nutrients, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, are lost directly during combustion. Highly available nutrients released...

Land Fire impacts assessment on the Rice Watershed, California. 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahraei, A.; Imam, B.; Sorooshian, S.

2009-12-01

Burn impacts assessment is a key factor for the post-fire disaster management. For example, assessing wildfire impacts on vegetation is an important component of improving the prediction of hydrologic and ecologic impacts of wildfires within the affected watershed. Many studies have analyzed satellite derived indices of vegetation vigor as indicator of burning effects. This poster reports a study in which Landsat (TM) data was used to compute three indices, NDVI, MASAVI and NBR, which are commonly used in assessing wildfire impacts. The study focused on the Rice watershed southern California, which was affected by a major wildfire in the 2007 fire season. A series of before and after Landsat images were used to evaluate these indices evaluated before and after the wildfire. Comparison between the three indices reveals that the affects of the fire were not very prominently present in the Satellite observation due to the length of time separating the fire from the next available Lansat scene. Such separation may include a period of vegetation recovery. However, when compared with the scenes from the previous year, but for the same season, post fire vegetation show marked differences from pre-fire conditions. The ability of NDVI, MSAVI and NBR to monitor post-fire impacts on vegetation is further evaluated by comparing precipitation patterns in 2006 and 2007, which may shed more light on whether the marked difference in these indices are due to dry/wet differences or to the impacts of fire. NDVI shows more reliability and better representation of both long-term and short-term impacts of wild-fire.

Fuel treatment impacts on estimated wildfire carbon loss from forests in Montana, Oregon, California, and Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, Scott L.; Boerner, Ralph E.J.; Maghaddas, Jason J.; Maghaddas, Emily E.Y.; Collins, Brandon M.; Dow, Christopher B.; Edminster, Carl; Fiedler, Carl E.; Fry, Danny L.; Hartsough, Bruce R.; Keeley, Jon E.; Knapp, Eric E.; McIver, James D.; Skinner, Carl N.; Youngblood, Andrew P.

2012-01-01

Using forests to sequester carbon in response to anthropogenically induced climate change is being considered across the globe. A recent U.S. executive order mandated that all federal agencies account for sequestration and emissions of greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of understanding how forest carbon stocks are influenced by wildfire. This paper reports the effects of the most common forest fuel reduction treatments on carbon pools composed of live and dead biomass as well as potential wildfire emissions from six different sites in four western U.S. states. Additionally, we predict the median forest product life spans and uses of materials removed during mechanical treatments. Carbon loss from modeled wildfire-induced tree mortality was lowest in the mechanical plus prescribed fire treatments, followed by the prescribed fire-only treatments. Wildfire emissions varied from 10–80 Mg/ha and were lowest in the prescribed fire and mechanical followed by prescribed fire treatments at most sites. Mean biomass removals per site ranged from approximately 30–60 dry Mg/ha; the median lives of products in first use varied considerably (from <10 to >50 years). Our research suggests most of the benefits of increased fire resistance can be achieved with relatively small reductions in current carbon stocks. Retaining or growing larger trees also reduced the vulnerability of carbon loss from wildfire. In addition, modeled vulnerabilities to carbon losses and median forest product life spans varied considerably across our study sites, which could be used to help prioritize treatment implementation.

Unsaturated flow processes in structurally-variable pathways in wildfire-affected soils and ash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebel, B. A.

2016-12-01

Prediction of flash flood and debris flow generation in wildfire-affected soils and ash hinges on understanding unsaturated flow processes. Water resources issues, such as groundwater recharge, also rely on our ability to quantify subsurface flow. Soil-hydraulic property data provide insight into unsaturated flow processes and timescales. A literature review and synthesis of existing data from the literature for wildfire-affected soils, including ash and unburned soils, facilitated calculating metrics and timescales of hydrologic response related to infiltration and surface runoff generation. Sorptivity (S) and the Green-Ampt wetting front parameter (Ψf) were significantly lower in burned soils compared to unburned soils, while field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was not significantly different. The magnitude and duration of the influence of capillarity was substantially reduced in burned soils, leading to faster ponding times in response to rainfall. Ash had large values of S and Kfs compared to unburned and burned soils but intermediate values of Ψf, suggesting that ash has long ponding times in response to rainfall. The ratio of S2/Kfs was nearly constant ( 100 mm) for unburned soils, but was more variable in burned soils. Post-wildfire changes in this ratio suggested that unburned soils had a balance between gravity and capillarity contributions to infiltration, which may depend on soil organic matter, while burning shifted infiltration more towards gravity contributions by reducing S. Taken together, the changes in post-wildfire soil-hydraulic properties increased the propensity for surface runoff generation and may have enhanced subsurface preferential flow through pathways altered by wildfire.

The Effects of Wildfire on Mortality and Resources for an Arboreal Marsupial: Resilience to Fire Events but Susceptibility to Fire Regime Change

PubMed Central

Banks, Sam C.; Knight, Emma J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Lindenmayer, David B.

2011-01-01

Background Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. Methodology/Principal Findings We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. Conclusions/Significance Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous forest generations in post-fire regrowth forests but will cease to be recruited to future regrowth forests if the interval between severe fires becomes too rapid for hollow formation. PMID:21826221

Introduction: Strengthening the foundation of wildland fire Effects prediction for research and management

Treesearch

Matthew B. Dickinson; Kevin C. Ryan

2010-01-01

As prescribed fire use increases and the options for responding to wildfires continue to expand beyond suppression, the need for improving fire effects prediction capabilities be¬comes increasingly apparent. The papers in this Fire Ecology special issue describe recent advances in fire effects prediction for key classes of direct (first-order) fire effects. Important...

Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

Treesearch

Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

2015-01-01

How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

Post-fire debris flow prediction in Western United States: Advancements based on a nonparametric statistical technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Destro, E.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Borga, M., Sr.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Fire disasters affect modern societies at global scale inducing significant economic losses and human casualties. In addition to their direct impacts they have various adverse effects on hydrologic and geomorphologic processes of a region due to the tremendous alteration of the landscape characteristics (vegetation, soil properties etc). As a consequence, wildfires often initiate a cascade of hazards such as flash floods and debris flows that usually follow the occurrence of a wildfire thus magnifying the overall impact in a region. Post-fire debris flows (PFDF) is one such type of hazards frequently occurring in Western United States where wildfires are a common natural disaster. Prediction of PDFD is therefore of high importance in this region and over the last years a number of efforts from United States Geological Survey (USGS) and National Weather Service (NWS) have been focused on the development of early warning systems that will help mitigate PFDF risk. This work proposes a prediction framework that is based on a nonparametric statistical technique (random forests) that allows predicting the occurrence of PFDF at regional scale with a higher degree of accuracy than the commonly used approaches that are based on power-law thresholds and logistic regression procedures. The work presented is based on a recently released database from USGS that reports a total of 1500 storms that triggered and did not trigger PFDF in a number of fire affected catchments in Western United States. The database includes information on storm characteristics (duration, accumulation, max intensity etc) and other auxiliary information of land surface properties (soil erodibility index, local slope etc). Results show that the proposed model is able to achieve a satisfactory prediction accuracy (threat score > 0.6) superior of previously published prediction frameworks highlighting the potential of nonparametric statistical techniques for development of PFDF prediction systems.

Operational prediction of air quality for the United States: applications of satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, Ivanka; Lee, Pius; Tong, Daniel; Pan, Li; McQueen, Jeff; Huang, Jianping; Huang, Ho-Chun; Draxler, Roland; Kondragunta, Shobha; Upadhayay, Sikchya

2015-04-01

Operational predictions of ozone and wildfire smoke over United States (U.S.) and predictions of airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states are provided by NOAA at http://airquality.weather.gov/. North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather predictions with inventory based emissions estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and chemical processes within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are combined together to produce ozone predictions. Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model is used to predict wildfire smoke and dust storm predictions. Routine verification of ozone predictions relies on AIRNow compilation of observations from surface monitors. Retrievals of smoke column integrals from GOES satellites and dust column integrals from MODIS satellite instruments are used for verification of smoke and dust predictions. Recent updates of NOAA's operational air quality predictions have focused on mobile emissions using the projections of mobile sources for 2012. Since emission inventories are complex and take years to assemble and evaluate causing a lag of information, we recently began combing inventory information with projections of mobile sources. In order to evaluate this emission update, these changes in projected NOx emissions from 2005-2012 were compared with observed changes in Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 observations and NOx measured by surface monitors over large U.S. cities over the same period. Comparisons indicate that projected decreases in NOx emissions from 2005 to 2012 are similar, but not as strong as the decreases in the observed NOx concentrations and in OMI NO2 retrievals. Nevertheless, the use of projected mobile NOx emissions in the predictions reduced biases in predicted NOx concentrations, with the largest improvement in the urban areas. Ozone biases are reduced as well, with the largest improvement seen in rural areas. Recent testing of PM2.5 predictions is relying on emissions inventories augmented by real time sources from wildfires and dust storms. The evaluation of these test predictions relies on surface monitor data, but efforts are in progress to include comparisons with satellite observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) products. Testing of PM2.5 predictions continues to exhibit seasonal biases: overprediction in the winter and underprediction in the summer. The current efforts focus on bias correction and development of linkages with global atmospheric composition predictions.

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Williams, A Park; Allen, Craig D; Millar, Constance I; Swetnam, Thomas W; Michaelsen, Joel; Still, Christopher J; Leavitt, Steven W

2010-12-14

In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈ 2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈ 7.6% experienced mortality associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈ 18% of southwestern forest area (excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage southwestern forests.

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, A.P.; Allen, Craig D.; Millar, C.I.; Swetnam, T.W.; Michaelsen, J.; Still, C.J.; Leavitt, Steven W.

2010-01-01

In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈7.6% experienced mortality associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈18% of southwestern forest area (excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage southwestern forests.

Improving satellite-based post-fire evapotranspiration estimates in semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, P.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Climate change and anthropogenic factors contribute to the increased frequency, duration, and size of wildfires, which can alter ecosystem and hydrological processes. The loss of vegetation canopy and ground cover reduces interception and alters evapotranspiration (ET) dynamics in riparian areas, which can impact rainfall-runoff partitioning. Previous research evaluated the spatial and temporal trends of ET based on burn severity and observed an annual decrease of 120 mm on average for three years after fire. Building upon these results, this research focuses on the Coyote Fire in San Diego, California (USA), which burned a total of 76 km2 in 2003 to calibrate and improve satellite-based ET estimates in semi-arid regions affected by wildfire. The current work utilizes satellite-based products and techniques such as the Google Earth Engine Application programming interface (API). Various ET models (ie. Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop)) are compared to the latent heat flux from two AmeriFlux eddy covariance towers, Sky Oaks Young (US-SO3), and Old Stand (US-SO2), from 2000 - 2015. The Old Stand tower has a low burn severity and the Young Stand tower has a moderate to high burn severity. Both towers are used to validate spatial ET estimates. Furthermore, variables and indices, such as Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), and the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) are utilized to evaluate satellite-based ET through a multivariate statistical analysis at both sites. This point-scale study will able to improve ET estimates in spatially diverse regions. Results from this research will contribute to the development of a post-wildfire ET model for semi-arid regions. Accurate estimates of post-fire ET will provide a better representation of vegetation and hydrologic recovery, which can be used to improve hydrologic models and predictions.

Forest fire spatial pattern analysis in Galicia (NW Spain).

PubMed

Fuentes-Santos, I; Marey-Pérez, M F; González-Manteiga, W

2013-10-15

Knowledge of fire behaviour is of key importance in forest management. In the present study, we analysed the spatial structure of forest fire with spatial point pattern analysis and inference techniques recently developed in the Spatstat package of R. Wildfires have been the primary threat to Galician forests in recent years. The district of Fonsagrada-Ancares is one of the most seriously affected by fire in the region and, therefore, the central focus of the study. Our main goal was to determine the spatial distribution of ignition points to model and predict fire occurrence. These data are of great value in establishing enhanced fire prevention and fire fighting plans. We found that the spatial distribution of wildfires is not random and that fire occurrence may depend on ownership conflicts. We also found positive interaction between small and large fires and spatial independence between wildfires in consecutive years. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting postfire Douglas-fir beetle attacks and tree mortality in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Sharon Hood; Barbara Bentz

2007-01-01

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) were monitored for 4 years following three wildfires. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop models predicting the probability of attack by Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae Hopkins, 1905) and the probability of Douglas-fir mortality within 4 years following...

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques to reduce post-fire runoff and erosion in Mediterranean pine stands - does cover matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Diana; Nunes, João; Prats, Sergio; Serpa, Dalila; Keizer, Jan

2016-04-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many forest ecosystems of the Mediterranean. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters make it prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. Furthermore, climate change and continuation of current land management practices and planning are generally expected to further increase this threat. The wide recognition of the effects of wildfires to enhance runoff and erosion has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire forestry operations to mitigate these responses. Such a tool should allow to identify areas with elevated risks of soil erosion and to evaluate which measures should be applied and when to minimize these risks. A key element in evaluating these measures is also their costs, in order to optimize the use of the limited resources that are typically available for post-fire land management. In this study, two "treatments" are compared with control conditions (i.e. doing nothing) after a wildfire with a moderate soil burn severity: (i) 4 erosion plots were treated with hydro-mulch, (ii) 4 erosion plots were untreated but had a high pine needle cover quickly after the fire, due to needle cast from scorched pine crowns (often referred to as "natural mulching") (iii) 4 plots were untreated and had a very reduced protective litter cover . The main objective of this study was to asses if the revised MMF model could effectively predict the impacts of hydro-mulching and natural mulching with pine needle on runoff generation and the associated soil losses. If MMF could predict well the impact of natural mulching, it could be very useful in limiting the areas that should be considered for specific soil mitigation measures, especially in the case of wildfires that affect large areas with moderate severity. The revised MMF model allowed, in fact, accurate predictions of runoff and soil erosion over the first year following hydro-mulch application . The obtained efficiency indices (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency) of 0.82 and 0.71 for runoff and erosion, respectively, suggested that the revised MMF model could be at the base of a tool to assist decision-making in post-fire forest management. Furthermore, the MMF results obtained for hydro-mulching agreed well with those obtained in a previous study in the region for mulching with forest residues (Vieira et al., 2014). Ongoing work is assessing the possible improvements in model predictions by applying MMF on a seasonal basis and/or taking into account the occurrence of soil water repellency, i.e. using the adjustments of MMF to post-fire conditions as proposed in Vieira et al. (2014) and so far only tested - successfully - for eucalypt plantations in the study region. Vieira DCS, Prats SA, Nunes JP, Shakesby RA, Coelho COA, Keizer JJ (2014) Modelling runoff and erosion, and their mitigation, in burned Portuguese forest using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney model. Forest Ecology and Management 314: 150-165

Understanding coupled natural and human systems on fire prone landscapes: integrating wildfire simulation into an agent based planning system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, Ana; Ager, Alan; Preisler, Haiganoush; Day, Michelle; Spies, Tom; Bolte, John

2015-04-01

Agent-based models (ABM) allow users to examine the long-term effects of agent decisions in complex systems where multiple agents and processes interact. This framework has potential application to study the dynamics of coupled natural and human systems where multiple stimuli determine trajectories over both space and time. We used Envision, a landscape based ABM, to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics in a heterogeneous, multi-owner landscape in Oregon, USA. Landscape dynamics are affected by land management policies, actors decisions, and autonomous processes such as vegetation succession, wildfire, or at a broader scale, climate change. Key questions include: 1) How are landscape dynamics influenced by policies and institutions, and 2) How do land management policies and actor decisions interact to produce intended and unintended consequences with respect to wildfire on fire-prone landscapes. Applying Envision to address these questions required the development of a wildfire module that could accurately simulate wildfires on the heterogeneous landscapes within the study area in terms of replicating historical fire size distribution, spatial distribution and fire intensity. In this paper we describe the development and testing of a mechanistic fire simulation system within Envision and application of the model on a 3.2 million fire prone landscape in central Oregon USA. The core fire spread equations use the Minimum Travel Time algorithm developed by M Finney. The model operates on a daily time step and uses a fire prediction system based on the relationship between energy release component and historical fires. Specifically, daily wildfire probabilities and sizes are generated from statistical analyses of historical fires in relation to daily ERC values. The MTT was coupled with the vegetation dynamics module in Envision to allow communication between the respective subsystem and effectively model fire effects and vegetation dynamics after a wildfire. Canopy and surface fuels are modeled in a state and transition framework that accounts for succession, fire effects, and fuels management. Fire effects are modeled using simulated fire intensity (flame length) to calculate expected vegetation impacts for each vegetation state. This talk will describe the mechanics of the simulation system along with initial results of Envision simulations for the Central Oregon study area that explore the dynamics of wildfire, fuel management, and succession over time.

Predicting Geomorphic and Hydrologic Risks after Wildfire Using Harmonic and Stochastic Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikesell, J.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Florsheim, J. L.; Chin, A.; Nourbakhshbeidokhti, S.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is a landscape-scale disturbance that often alters hydrological processes and sediment flux during subsequent storms. Vegetation loss from wildfires induce changes to sediment supply such as channel erosion and sedimentation and streamflow magnitude or flooding. These changes enhance downstream hazards, threatening human populations and physical aquatic habitat over various time scales. Using Williams Canyon, a basin burned by the Waldo Canyon Fire (2012) as a case study, we utilize deterministic and statistical modeling methods (Fourier series and first order Markov chain) to assess pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics, including of precipitation, enhanced vegetation index (EVI, a satellite-based proxy of vegetation biomass), streamflow, and sediment flux. Local precipitation, terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) scanning, and satellite-based products are used for these time series analyses. We present a framework to assess variability of periodic and nonperiodic climatic and multivariate trends to inform development of a post-wildfire risk assessment methodology. To establish the extent to which a wildfire affects hydrologic and geomorphic patterns, a Fourier series was used to fit pre- and post-fire geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics to yearly temporal cycles and subcycles of 6, 4, 3, and 2.4 months. These cycles were analyzed using least-squares estimates of the harmonic coefficients or amplitudes of each sub-cycle's contribution to fit the overall behavior of a Fourier series. The stochastic variances of these characteristics were analyzed by composing first-order Markov models and probabilistic analysis through direct likelihood estimates. Preliminary results highlight an increased dependence of monthly post-fire hydrologic characteristics on 12 and 6-month temporal cycles. This statistical and probabilistic analysis provides a basis to determine the impact of wildfires on the temporal dependence of geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics, which can be incorporated into post-fire mitigation, management, and recovery-based measures to protect and rehabilitate areas subject to influence from wildfires.

An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority.

PubMed

Adelaine, Sabrina A; Sato, Mizuki; Jin, Yufang; Godwin, Hilary

2017-10-01

Introduction Although many studies have delineated the variety and magnitude of impacts that climate change is likely to have on health, very little is known about how well hospitals are poised to respond to these impacts. Hypothesis/Problem The hypothesis is that most modern hospitals in urban areas in the United States need to augment their current disaster planning to include climate-related impacts. Using Los Angeles County (California USA) as a case study, historical data for emergency department (ED) visits and projections for extreme-heat events were used to determine how much climate change is likely to increase ED visits by mid-century for each hospital. In addition, historical data about the location of wildfires in Los Angeles County and projections for increased frequency of both wildfires and flooding related to sea-level rise were used to identify which area hospitals will have an increased risk of climate-related wildfires or flooding at mid-century. Only a small fraction of the total number of predicted ED visits at mid-century would likely to be due to climate change. By contrast, a significant portion of hospitals in Los Angeles County are in close proximity to very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZs) and would be at greater risk to wildfire impacts as a result of climate change by mid-century. One hospital in Los Angeles County was anticipated to be at greater risk due to flooding by mid-century as a result of climate-related sea-level rise. This analysis suggests that several Los Angeles County hospitals should focus their climate-change-related planning on building resiliency to wildfires. Adelaine SA , Sato M , Jin Y , Godwin H . An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):556-562.

Differential respiratory health effects from the 2008 northern California wildfires: A spatiotemporal approach.

PubMed

Reid, Colleen E; Jerrett, Michael; Tager, Ira B; Petersen, Maya L; Mann, Jennifer K; Balmes, John R

2016-10-01

We investigated health effects associated with fine particulate matter during a long-lived, large wildfire complex in northern California in the summer of 2008. We estimated exposure to PM2.5 for each day using an exposure prediction model created through data-adaptive machine learning methods from a large set of spatiotemporal data sets. We then used Poisson generalized estimating equations to calculate the effect of exposure to 24-hour average PM2.5 on cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations and ED visits. We further assessed effect modification by sex, age, and area-level socioeconomic status (SES). We observed a linear increase in risk for asthma hospitalizations (RR=1.07, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.10) per 5µg/m(3) increase) and asthma ED visits (RR=1.06, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.07) per 5µg/m(3) increase) with increasing PM2.5 during the wildfires. ED visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with PM2.5 during the fires (RR=1.02 (95% CI=(1.01, 1.04) per 5µg/m(3) increase) and this effect was significantly different from that found before the fires but not after. We did not find consistent effects of wildfire smoke on other health outcomes. The effect of PM2.5 during the wildfire period was more pronounced in women compared to men and in adults, ages 20-64, compared to children and adults 65 or older. We also found some effect modification by area-level median income for respiratory ED visits during the wildfires, with the highest effects observed in the ZIP codes with the lowest median income. Using a novel spatiotemporal exposure model, we found some evidence of differential susceptibility to exposure to wildfire smoke. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soil heating during wildfires and prescribed burns: a global evaluation based on existing and new data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina; Reardon, James; Mataix-Solera, Jorge; Stoof, Cathelijne; Bryant, Rob; Miesel, Jessica; Badia, David

2017-04-01

Heat transfer from the combustion of ground fuels and soil organic matter during vegetation fires can cause substantial changes to the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of soils. Numerous studies have investigated the effects of wildfires and prescribed burns on soil properties based either on field samples or using laboratory experiments. Critical thresholds for changes in soil properties, however, have been determined largely based on laboratory heating experimentation. These experimental approaches have been criticized for being inadequate for reflecting the actual heating patterns soil experienced in vegetation fires, which remain poorly understood. To address this research gap, this study reviews existing and evaluates new field data on key soil heating parameters determined during wildfires and prescribed burns from a wide range of environments. The results highlight the high spatial and temporal variability in soil heating patters not only between, but also within fires. Most wildfires and prescribed burns are associated with heat pulses that are much shorter than those typically applied in laboratory studies, which can lead to erroneous conclusions when results from laboratory studies are used to predict fire impacts on soils in the field.

Optimization of the resources management in fighting wildfires.

PubMed

Martin-Fernández, Susana; Martínez-Falero, Eugenio; Pérez-González, J Manuel

2002-09-01

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.

Optimization of the Resources Management in Fighting Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Fernández, Susana; Martínez-Falero, Eugenio; Pérez-González, J. Manuel

2002-09-01

Wildfires lead to important economic, social, and environmental losses, especially in areas of Mediterranean climate where they are of a high intensity and frequency. Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic surge in the development and use of fire spread models. However, given the chaotic nature of environmental systems, it is very difficult to develop real-time fire-extinguishing models. This article proposes a method of optimizing the performance of wildfire fighting resources such that losses are kept to a minimum. The optimization procedure includes discrete simulation algorithms and Bayesian optimization methods for discrete and continuous problems (simulated annealing and Bayesian global optimization). Fast calculus algorithms are applied to provide optimization outcomes in short periods of time such that the predictions of the model and the real behavior of the fire, combat resources, and meteorological conditions are similar. In addition, adaptive algorithms take into account the chaotic behavior of wildfire so that the system can be updated with data corresponding to the real situation to obtain a new optimum solution. The application of this method to the Northwest Forest of Madrid (Spain) is also described. This application allowed us to check that it is a helpful tool in the decision-making process.

75 FR 3193 - Information Collection; Annual Wildfire Summary Report

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-20

... addressed to Tim Melchert, Fire and Aviation Management, National Interagency Fire Center, Forest Service... Forest Service State and Private Forestry Cooperative Fire Program. The program provides supplemental funding for State and local fire fighting agencies. The Forest Service works cooperatively with State and...

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA.

PubMed

Carlson, Chris H; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Safford, Hugh D

2012-06-28

Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10-35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks.

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. Results We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10–35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Conclusions Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks. PMID:22741762

Recovery of biological soil crust richness and cover 12-16 years after wildfires in Idaho, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Root, Heather T.; Brinda, John C.; Dodson, E. Kyle

2017-09-01

Changing fire regimes in western North America may impact biological soil crust (BSC) communities that influence many ecosystem functions, such as soil stability and C and N cycling. However, longer-term effects of wildfire on BSC abundance, species richness, functional groups, and ecosystem functions after wildfire (i.e., BSC resilience) are still poorly understood. We sampled BSC lichen and bryophyte communities at four sites in Idaho, USA, within foothill steppe communities that included wildfires from 12 to 16 years old. We established six plots outside each burn perimeter and compared them with six plots of varying severity within each fire perimeter at each site. BSC cover was most strongly negatively impacted by wildfire at sites that had well-developed BSC communities in adjacent unburned plots. BSC species richness was estimated to be 65 % greater in unburned plots compared with burned plots, and fire effects did not vary among sites. In contrast, there was no evidence that vascular plant functional groups or fire severity (as measured by satellite metrics differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) or relativized differenced normalized burn ratio (RdNBR)) significantly affected longer-term BSC responses. Three large-statured BSC functional groups that may be important in controlling wind and water erosion (squamulose lichens, vagrant lichens, and tall turf mosses) exhibited a significant decrease in abundance in burned areas relative to adjacent unburned areas. The decreases in BSC cover and richness along with decreased abundance of several functional groups suggest that wildfire can negatively impact ecosystem function in these semiarid ecosystems for at least 1 to 2 decades. This is a concern given that increased fire frequency is predicted for the region due to exotic grass invasion and climate change.

Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Day, Michelle A; McHugh, Charles W; Short, Karen; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Finney, Mark A; Calkin, David E

2014-12-01

Substantial investments in fuel management activities on national forests in the western US are part of a national strategy to reduce human and ecological losses from catastrophic wildfire and create fire resilient landscapes. Prioritizing these investments within and among national forests remains a challenge, partly because a comprehensive assessment that establishes the current wildfire risk and exposure does not exist, making it difficult to identify national priorities and target specific areas for fuel management. To gain a broader understanding of wildfire exposure in the national forest system, we analyzed an array of simulated and empirical data on wildfire activity and fuel treatment investments on the 82 western US national forests. We first summarized recent fire data to examine variation among the Forests in ignition frequency and burned area in relation to investments in fuel reduction treatments. We then used simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale spatial variation in burn probability and intensity. We also estimated the probability of a mega-fire event on each of the Forests, and the transmission of fires ignited on national forests to the surrounding urban interface. The analysis showed a good correspondence between recent area burned and predictions from the simulation models. The modeling also illustrated the magnitude of the variation in both burn probability and intensity among and within Forests. Simulated burn probabilities in most instances were lower than historical, reflecting fire exclusion on many national forests. Simulated wildfire transmission from national forests to the urban interface was highly variable among the Forests. We discuss how the results of the study can be used to prioritize investments in hazardous fuel reduction within a comprehensive multi-scale risk management framework. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating mercury emissions resulting from wildfire in forests of the Western United States.

PubMed

Webster, Jackson P; Kane, Tyler J; Obrist, Daniel; Ryan, Joseph N; Aiken, George R

2016-10-15

Understanding the emissions of mercury (Hg) from wildfires is important for quantifying the global atmospheric Hg sources. Emissions of Hg from soils resulting from wildfires in the Western United States was estimated for the 2000 to 2013 period, and the potential emission of Hg from forest soils was assessed as a function of forest type and soil-heating. Wildfire released an annual average of 3100±1900kg-Hgy(-1) for the years spanning 2000-2013 in the 11 states within the study area. This estimate is nearly 5-fold lower than previous estimates for the study region. Lower emission estimates are attributed to an inclusion of fire severity within burn perimeters. Within reported wildfire perimeters, the average distribution of low, moderate, and high severity burns was 52, 29, and 19% of the total area, respectively. Review of literature data suggests that that low severity burning does not result in soil heating, moderate severity fire results in shallow soil heating, and high severity fire results in relatively deep soil heating (<5cm). Using this approach, emission factors for high severity burns ranged from 58 to 640μg-Hgkg-fuel(-1). In contrast, low severity burns have emission factors that are estimated to be only 18-34μg-Hgkg-fuel(-1). In this estimate, wildfire is predicted to release 1-30gHgha(-1) from Western United States forest soils while above ground fuels are projected to contribute an additional 0.9 to 7.8gHgha(-1). Land cover types with low biomass (desert scrub) are projected to release less than 1gHgha(-1). Following soil sources, fuel source contributions to total Hg emissions generally followed the order of duff>wood>foliage>litter>branches. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Critical shear stress for erosion of cohesive soils subjected to temperatures typical of wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, J.A.; Dungan, Smith J.; Ragan, B.W.

2005-01-01

[1] Increased erosion is a well-known response after wildfire. To predict and to model erosion on a landscape scale requires knowledge of the critical shear stress for the initiation of motion of soil particles. As this soil property is temperature-dependent, a quantitative relation between critical shear stress and the temperatures to which the soils have been subjected during a wildfire is required. In this study the critical shear stress was measured in a recirculating flume using samples of forest soil exposed to different temperatures (40??-550??C) for 1 hour. Results were obtained for four replicates of soils derived from three different types of parent material (granitic bedrock, sandstone, and volcanic tuffs). In general, the relation between critical shear stress and temperature can be separated into three different temperature ranges (275??C), which are similar to those for water repellency and temperature. The critical shear stress was most variable (1.0-2.0 N m-2) for temperatures 2.0 N m-2) between 175?? and 275??C, and was essentially constant (0.5-0.8 N m-2) for temperatures >275??C. The changes in critical shear stress with temperature were found to be essentially independent of soil type and suggest that erosion processes in burned watersheds can be modeled more simply than erosion processes in unburned watersheds. Wildfire reduces the spatial variability of soil erodibility associated with unburned watersheds by eliminating the complex effects of vegetation in protecting soils and by reducing the range of cohesion associated with different types of unburned soils. Our results indicate that modeling the erosional response after a wildfire depends primarily on determining the spatial distribution of the maximum soil temperatures that were reached during the wildfire. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Data Mining and the Twitter Platform for Prescribed Burn and Wildfire Incident Reporting with Geospatial Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endsley, K.; McCarty, J. L.

2012-12-01

Data mining techniques have been applied to social media in a variety of contexts, from mapping the evolution of the Tahrir Square protests in Egypt to predicting influenza outbreaks. The Twitter platform is a particular favorite due to its robust application programming interface (API) and high throughput. Twitter, Inc. estimated in 2011 that over 2,200 messages or "tweets" are generated every second. Also helpful is Twitter's semblance in operation to the short message service (SMS), better known as "texting," available on cellular phones and the most popular means of wide telecommunications in many developing countries. In the United States, Twitter has been used by a number of federal, state and local officials as well as motivated individuals to report prescribed burns in advance (sometimes as part of a reporting obligation) or to communicate the emergence, response to, and containment of wildfires. These reports are unstructured and, like all Twitter messages, limited to 140 UTF-8 characters. Through internal research and development at the Michigan Tech Research Institute, the authors have developed a data mining routine that gathers potential tweets of interest using the Twitter API, eliminates duplicates ("retweets"), and extracts relevant information such as the approximate size and condition of the fire. Most importantly, the message is geocoded and/or contains approximate locational information, allowing for prescribed and wildland fires to be mapped. Natural language processing techniques, adapted to improve computational performance, are used to tokenize and tag these elements for each tweet. The entire routine is implemented in the Python programming language, using open-source libraries. As such, it is demonstrated in a web-based framework where prescribed burns and/or wildfires are mapped in real time, visualized through a JavaScript-based mapping client in any web browser. The practices demonstrated here generalize to an SMS platform (or any short text-based platform) and thus provide exciting opportunities for the cultivation of fire or other disaster alerts and response here in the U.S. and in the developing world.

Coupling chemical transport model source attributions with positive matrix factorization: application to two IMPROVE sites impacted by wildfires.

PubMed

Sturtz, Timothy M; Schichtel, Bret A; Larson, Timothy V

2014-10-07

Source contributions to total fine particle carbon predicted by a chemical transport model (CTM) were incorporated into the positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor model to form a receptor-oriented hybrid model. The level of influence of the CTM versus traditional PMF was varied using a weighting parameter applied to an object function as implemented in the Multilinear Engine (ME-2). The methodology provides the ability to separate features that would not be identified using PMF alone, without sacrificing fit to observations. The hybrid model was applied to IMPROVE data taken from 2006 through 2008 at Monture and Sula Peak, Montana. It was able to separately identify major contributions of total carbon (TC) from wildfires and minor contributions from biogenic sources. The predictions of TC had a lower cross-validated RMSE than those from either PMF or CTM alone. Two unconstrained, minor features were identified at each site, a soil derived feature with elevated summer impacts and a feature enriched in sulfate and nitrate with significant, but sporadic contributions across the sampling period. The respective mean TC contributions from wildfires, biogenic emissions, and other sources were 1.18, 0.12, and 0.12 ugC/m(3) at Monture and 1.60, 0.44, and 0.06 ugC/m(3) at Sula Peak.

Fire feedbacks over geological time and the evolution of atmospheric oxygen concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, B.; Belcher, C.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

During the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth, the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere has risen from trace levels to today's 21%. Yet over the last 400 million years, O2 concentration appears to have remained within a relatively narrow range (around 15% - 30%), despite dramatic changes in the nature of global biogeochemical cycling. This stability has been crucial for continued animal evolution, and is thought to have arisen through feedbacks between oxygen, wildfire and plant productivity: the strong oxygen- dependence of fire initiation and spread means that global photosynthetic primary productivity is suppressed when oxygen levels are high, and enhanced when levels are low. We present biogeochemical modelling of the long term carbon and oxygen cycles, which aims to capture the operation of the wildfire feedback alongside other key processes. We find that wildfire can effectively stabilize long term oxygen concentrations, but that the nature of this feedback has changed as plant evolution has provided different fuels. Specifically, the evolution of early angiosperms during the Cretaceous period provided new understory fuels that more easily facilitated crown and canopy fires. Adding these dynamics to our model produces a more stable system over long timescales, and the model predicts that oxygen concentration has declined towards the present day - a prediction that is supported by other independent estimates.

A population model of chaparral vegetation response to frequent wildfires.

PubMed

Lucas, Timothy A; Johns, Garrett; Jiang, Wancen; Yang, Lucie

2013-12-01

The recent increase in wildfire frequency in the Santa Monica Mountains (SMM) may substantially impact plant community structure. Species of Chaparral shrubs represent the dominant vegetation type in the SMM. These species can be divided into three life history types according to their response to wildfires. Nonsprouting species are completely killed by fire and reproduce by seeds that germinate in response to a fire cue, obligate sprouting species survive by resprouting from dormant buds in a root crown because their seeds are destroyed by fire, and facultative sprouting species recover after fire both by seeds and resprouts. Based on these assumptions, we developed a set of nonlinear difference equations to model each life history type. These models can be used to predict species survivorship under varying fire return intervals. For example, frequent fires can lead to localized extinction of nonsprouting species such as Ceanothus megacarpus while several facultative sprouting species such as Ceanothus spinosus and Malosma (Rhus) laurina will persist as documented by a longitudinal study in a biological preserve in the SMM. We estimated appropriate parameter values for several chaparral species using 25 years of data and explored parameter relationships that lead to equilibrium populations. We conclude by looking at the survival strategies of these three species of chaparral shrubs under varying fire return intervals and predict changes in plant community structure under fire intervals of short return. In particular, our model predicts that an average fire return interval of greater than 12 years is required for 50 % of the initial Ceanothus megacarpus population and 25 % of the initial Ceanothus spinosus population to survive. In contrast, we predict that the Malosma laurina population will have 90 % survivorship for an average fire return interval of at least 6 years.

Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

Interactions of Earth's atmospheric oxygen and fuel moisture in smouldering wildfires.

PubMed

Huang, Xinyan; Rein, Guillermo

2016-12-01

Vegetation, wildfire and atmospheric oxygen on Earth have changed throughout geological times, and are dependent on each other, determining the evolution of ecosystems, the carbon cycle, and the climate, as found in the fossil record. Previous work in the literature has only studied flaming wildfires, but smouldering is the most persistent type of fire phenomena, consuming large amounts of biomass. In this study, the dependence of smouldering fires in peatlands, the largest wildfires on Earth, with atmospheric oxygen is investigated. A physics-based computational model of reactive porous media for peat fires, which has been previously validated against experiments, is used. Simulations are conducted for wide ranges of atmospheric oxygen concentrations and fuel moisture contents to find thresholds for ignition and extinction. Results show that the predicted rate of spread increases in oxygen-rich atmospheres, while it decreases over wetter fuels. A novel nonlinear relationship between critical oxygen and critical moisture is found. More importantly, we show that compared to previous work on flaming fires, smouldering fires can be ignited and sustained at substantially higher moisture contents (up to 100% MC vs. 40% for 21% oxygen level), and lower oxygen concentrations (down to 13% vs. 16%). This defines a new atmospheric oxygen threshold for wildfires (13%), even lower than previously thought in Earth Sciences (16%). This finding should lead to reinterpretation of how the char remains observed in the fossil record constrain the lower concentration of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere in geological timescale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2014-01-01

The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire...

Validation of BlueSky Smoke Prediction System using surface and satellite observations during major wildland fire events in Northern California

Treesearch

Lesley Fusina; Sharon Zhong; Julide Koracin; Tim Brown; Annie Esperanza; Leland Tarney; Haiganoush Preisler

2007-01-01

The BlueSky Smoke Prediction System developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, AirFire Team under the National Fire Plan is a modeling framework that integrates tools, knowledge of fuels, moisture, combustion, emissions, plume dynamics, and weather to produce real-time predictions of the cumulative impacts of smoke from wildfires, prescribed fires...

Southern California Disasters II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicholson, Heather; Todoroff, Amber L.; LeBoeuf, Madeline A.

2015-01-01

The USDA Forest Service (USFS) has multiple programs in place which primarily utilize Landsat imagery to produce burn severity indices for aiding wildfire damage assessment and mitigation. These indices provide widely-used wildfire damage assessment tools to decision makers. When the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) is launched in 2022, the sensor's hyperspectral resolution will support new methods for assessing natural disaster impacts on ecosystems, including wildfire damage to forests. This project used simulated HyspIRI data to study three southern California fires: Aspen, French, and King. Burn severity indices were calculated from the data and the results were quantitatively compared to the comparable USFS products currently in use. The final results from this project illustrate how HyspIRI data may be used in the future to enhance assessment of fire-damaged areas and provide additional monitoring tools for decision support to the USFS and other land management agencies.

75 FR 70083 - Emergency Forest Restoration Program and Emergency Conservation Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-17

... Iniki in 1993 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 where the extent and magnitude of damage made... rehabilitate farmland damaged by wind erosion, floods, hurricanes, or other natural disasters, and for carrying... the 2008 Farm Bill and the current ECP definition, which includes wildfires, hurricanes or excessive...

Contingent valuation of fuel hazard reduction treatments

Treesearch

John B. Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2008-01-01

This chapter presents a stated preference technique for estimating the public benefits of reducing wildfires to residents of California, Florida, and Montana from two alternative fuel reduction programs: prescribed burning, and mechanical fuels reduction. The two fuel reduction programs under study are quite relevant to people living in California, Florida, and...

Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moritz, Max A.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Hughes, Mimi; Hall, Alex

2010-02-01

Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone landscapes.

Towards the development of full-fledged forest fire information systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baetens, J.; De Baets, B.

2012-12-01

Throughout the last decades much efforts have been spent in obtaining an increased understanding of wildfire dynamics and the way it is influenced by prevailing environmental conditions and settings, such as temperature, humidity, topography, vegetation abundance, and so on, since such a profound apprehension is a prerequisite for achieving enhanced wildfire prevention measures, as well as for optimizing fire fighting and disaster management. Amongst other things, this pursuit has culminated in the deployment of wildfire information systems, such as the Canadian Wildfire Information System (CWFIS), the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and the United States Active Fire Mapping Program and Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE), which inform any interested stakeholder, be it a citizen or a government official, about the current fire risk, the extent and location of current fires, the inflammability of the vegetation, and so on. Taking into account the coverage of these systems, it should be clear that they strongly rely upon satellite imagery that is obtained from dedicated sensors, such as the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board of NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) that is carried by NOAA satellites, or more general-purpose instruments on board of spacecrafts such as Landsat or SPOT. Yet, to this day the aforementioned information systems have not yet embraced the power of mathematical modeling in order to enable trustworthy forecasts of the spatio-temporal propagation of wildfires given their current extent, which would nonetheless be extremely useful for optimizing fire fighting and disaster management, taking appropriate preventive measures, and so on. The deployment of such full-fledged wildfire information systems requires a high-level integration of (real-time) satellite imagery, weather reports and forecasts, geographic information, and finally mathematical models that constitute a mathematization of the underlying environmental processes, and which are indispensable for attaining sound and trustworthy wildfire forecasts, just as their meteorological counterparts are exploited to yield meaningful weather forecasts. As a very first step towards the development of a full-fledged wildfire information system, we demonstrate how MODIS imagery, Anderson fuel maps and geographic information can be combined to achieve meaningful wildfire forecasts given the current extent of the considered wildfire. Such a high-level integration is illustrated for a wildfire that swept through a natural area in Arizona, United States, near the border with New Mexico, between days 148 and 166 of the year 2011. Taking into account the spatial discreteness of the exploited information, which follows from its storage in geographical information systems, we rely upon a spatially discrete mathematical model, i.e. a coupled-map lattice, for mimicking the spatio-temporal wildfire propagation that can be extended in a next stage. Since setting up a full-fledged wildfire information system requires a highly multidisciplinary approach in which foresters, mathematicians, computer scientists, physicists, ecologists and others need to be involved, we hope to stimulate the joint efforts in accomplishing this task by means of our contribution.

Wildfire risk adaptation: propensity of forestland owners to purchase wildfire insurance in the southern United States

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2014-01-01

Economic and ecological damages caused by wildfire are alarming, and such damages are expected to rise with changes in wildfire regimes, calling for more effective wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies. Among wildfire adaptation options for forestland owners is purchasing wildfire insurance, which provides compensation to those insured if a wildfire damages...

MISR Interactive Explorer (MINX) : Production Digitizing to Retrieve Smoke Plume Heights and Validating Heights Against Lidar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunst, Ben

2011-01-01

The height at which smoke from a wildfire is injected into the atmosphere is an important parameter for climatology, because it determines how far the smoke can be transported. Using the MINX program to analyze MISR (Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer) data, I digitized wildfire smoke plumes to add to an existing database of these heights for use by scientists studying smoke transport and plume dynamics. In addition to using MINX to do production digitizing of heights, I assisted in gathering lidar data for an ongoing validation of MINX and helped evaluate those data.

Measurement of Total Reactive Nitrogen (Nr) during the FIREX 2016 Lab Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, J. M.; Liu, Y.; Stockwell, C.; Warneke, C.; Coggon, M.; Franchin, A.; Gilman, J.; De Gouw, J. A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Koss, A.; Krechmer, J. E.; Lerner, B. M.; Middlebrook, A. M.; Sekimoto, K.; Selimovic, V.; Yokelson, R. J.; Yuan, B.; Zarzana, K. J.; Brown, S. S.

2017-12-01

Wildfire is a significant source of nitrogen-containing gases and particles to the atmosphere. In addition, a warmer and drier climate is making wildfire an emerging air quality issue in North America. The nitrogen compounds emitted from biomass fires come solely from fuel nitrogen, as a result of pyrolytic and combustion processes, and range from highly reduced (NH3) to highly oxidized (HNO3/NO3-) species. A systematic understanding of the emissions and fate of these compounds is key to quantifying and predicting the role of wild fire in ozone and particle formation, so that wildfire management can be optimized. In addition, many wildfire-derived compounds have unique health impacts that also need to be managed. We have developed a method for the measurement of Total Reactive Nitrogen (Nr = all N-compounds except for N2 and N2O), based on catalytic conversion on a high temperature platinum catalyst, with detection by NO-O3 chemiluminescence. This instrument was fielded during the 2016 FIREX emissions studies at the USFS Missoula, MT., Fire Laboratory, along with a whole suite of measurements of individual gas and particle-phase species. The nitrogen balance of measured emissions will be discussed in the context of fuel-N, fuel type and fire phase (e.g. pyrolysis, flaming, smoldering stages).

Predicting post-fire change in West Virginia, USA from remotely-sensed data

Treesearch

Michael P. Strager; Melissa Thomas-Van Gundy; Aaron E. Maxwell

2016-01-01

Prescribed burning is used in West Virginia, USA to return the important disturbance process of fire to oak and oak-pine forests. Species composition and structure are often the main goals for re-establishing fire with less emphasis on fuel reduction or reducing catastrophic wildfire. In planning prescribed fires land managers could benefit from the ability to predict...

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Jeremy S. Littell

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong,...

Evaluation of the rusle and disturbed wepp erosion models for predicting soil loss in the first year after wildfire in NW Spain.

PubMed

Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A

2018-05-04

Severe fire greatly increases soil erosion rates and overland-flow in forest land. Soil erosion prediction models are essential for estimating fire impacts and planning post-fire emergency responses. We evaluated the performance of a) the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), modified by inclusion of an alternative equation for the soil erodibility factor, and b) the Disturbed WEPP model, by comparing the soil loss predicted by the models and the soil loss measured in the first year after wildfire in 44 experimental field plots in NW Spain. The Disturbed WEPP has not previously been validated with field data for use in NW Spain; validation studies are also very scarce in other areas. We found that both models underestimated the erosion rates. The accuracy of the RUSLE model was low, even after inclusion of a modified soil erodibility factor accounting for high contents of soil organic matter. We conclude that neither model is suitable for predicting soil erosion in the first year after fire in NW Spain and suggest that soil burn severity should be given greater weighting in post-fire soil erosion modelling. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P

2013-01-01

Wildfire management in the United States and elsewhere is challenged by substantial uncertainty regarding the location and timing of fire events, the socioeconomic and ecological consequences of these events, and the costs of suppression. Escalating U.S. Forest Service suppression expenditures is of particular concern at a time of fiscal austerity as swelling fire management budgets lead to decreases for non-fire programs, and as the likelihood of disruptive within-season borrowing potentially increases. Thus there is a strong interest in better understanding factors influencing suppression decisions and in turn their influence on suppression costs. As a step in that direction, this paper presents a probabilistic analysis of geographic and temporal variation in incident management team response to wildfires. The specific focus is incident complexity dynamics through time for fires managed by the U.S. Forest Service. The modeling framework is based on the recognition that large wildfire management entails recurrent decisions across time in response to changing conditions, which can be represented as a stochastic dynamic system. Daily incident complexity dynamics are modeled according to a first-order Markov chain, with containment represented as an absorbing state. A statistically significant difference in complexity dynamics between Forest Service Regions is demonstrated. Incident complexity probability transition matrices and expected times until containment are presented at national and regional levels. Results of this analysis can help improve understanding of geographic variation in incident management and associated cost structures, and can be incorporated into future analyses examining the economic efficiency of wildfire management.

"First aid" for burned watersheds

Treesearch

J. S. Krammes; L. W. Hill

1963-01-01

Most of the vegetative cover on the San Dimas Experimental Forest was destroyed by a wildfire in 1960. Following the fire an emergency research program was initiated to test several "first -aid" treatments aimed at reducing flood and erosion damage from burned watersheds. This paper summarizes first - and second-year results of the research program.

Blending Model Output with satellite-based and in-situ observations to produce high-resolution estimates of population exposure to wildfire smoke

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassman, William

In the western US, emissions from wildfires and prescribed fire have been associated with degradation of regional air quality. Whereas atmospheric aerosol particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 mum (PM2.5) have known impacts on human health, there is uncertainty in how particle composition, concentrations, and exposure duration impact the associated health response. Due to changes in climate and land-management, wildfires have increased in frequency and severity, and this trend is expected to continue. Consequently, wildfires are expected to become an increasingly important source of PM2.5 in the western US. While composition and source of the aerosol is thought to be an important factor in the resulting human health-effects, this is currently not well-understood; therefore, there is a need to develop a quantitative understanding of wildfire-smoke-specific health effects. A necessary step in this process is to determine who was exposed to wildfire smoke, the concentration of the smoke during exposure, and the duration of the exposure. Three different tools are commonly used to assess exposure to wildfire smoke: in-situ measurements, satellite-based observations, and chemical-transport model (CTM) simulations, and each of these exposure-estimation tools have associated strengths and weakness. In this thesis, we investigate the utility of blending these tools together to produce highly accurate estimates of smoke exposure during the 2012 fire season in Washington for use in an epidemiological case study. For blending, we use a ridge regression model, as well as a geographically weighted ridge regression model. We evaluate the performance of the three individual exposure-estimate techniques and the two blended techniques using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation. Due to the number of in-situ monitors present during this time period, we find that predictions based on in-situ monitors were more accurate for this particular fire season than the CTM simulations and satellite-based observations, so blending provided only marginal improvements above the in-situ observations. However, we show that in hypothetical cases with fewer surface monitors, the two blending techniques can produce substantial improvement over any of the individual tools.

Wildfires and storms: Increased vulnerability of water quality in the southwestern U.S. in the face of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S. F.; Writer, J. H.; McCleskey, R. B.; Martin, D. A.

2014-12-01

Communities in the southwestern U.S. rely on forested watersheds to provide high-quality water, but these watersheds are prone to major disturbance by wildfire. The loss of vegetation and litter can decrease water storage and infiltration and decrease nutrient uptake, leading to enhanced surface runoff, erosion, and nutrient export compared to undisturbed watersheds. Post-wildfire impacts on water quality vary widely across geographic regions, and are largely driven by post-fire storm timing and intensity. In the southwestern U.S., the North American Monsoon can produce high-intensity rain from July through September. A better understanding of the post-fire water-quality response of watersheds to monsoonal storms in this region is therefore critical. The Fourmile Canyon Fire burned 2600 ha near Boulder, Colorado in September 2010, including 23% of the Fourmile Creek watershed. This watershed had been recovering from historical mining activity, and dispersed waste rock and mine tailings were only partially revegetated before the wildfire. We collected water quality, hydrological, and meteorological data with high temporal and spatial density upstream and downstream of the burned area for 4 years post-fire. For 9 months post-fire, the area received snow or low-intensity rain, and the difference in stream water chemistry between burned and unburned watersheds was minimal. However, in the summer of 2011, and in the following two summers, relatively common monsoonal storms caused dramatic, but short-lived, increases in discharge, sediment, nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, and metals downstream of the burned area. Such pulses can degrade aquatic ecosystems, impair water treatability, and decrease reservoir capacity. Climate change is projected to increase wildfire frequency and size and lead to an earlier and longer wildfire season. Simultaneously, storm frequency and intensity are predicted to increase, and the monsoon season may occur later in the year, potentially decreasing the average length of time between wildfire and subsequent high-intensity rain events. This suggests that substantial water-quality impacts may be more common in the future, resulting in a new paradigm for water treatment in the southwestern U.S.

Germination prediction from soil moisture and temperature in the Great Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Preventing cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) dominance associated with frequent wildfires may depend on successful establishment of desirable species sown in rehabilitation and fuel control projects. Ranking potential species success to develop more performance-based species selection for revegetatio...

Timber net value and physical output changes following wildfire in the northern Rocky Mountains: estimates for specific fire situations

Treesearch

Patrick J. Flowers; Patricia B. Shinkle; Daria A. Cain; Thomas J. Mills

1985-01-01

In the last decade, the fire management program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, has come under closer scrutiny because of ever-rising program costs. The Forest Service has responded by conducting several studies analyzing the economic efficiency of its fire management program. Some components of the analytical models have been difficult to...

The influences of wildfires and stratospheric-tropospheric exchange on ozone during seacions mission over St. Louis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkins, Joseph L.

The influence of wildfire biomass burning and stratospheric air mass transport on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in St. Louis during the SEAC4RS and SEACIONS-2013 measurement campaigns has been investigated. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF analysis reveals that 55% of ozonesonde profiles during SEACIONS were effected by biomass burning. Comparing ozonesonde profiles with numerical simulations show that as biomass burning plumes age there is O3 production aloft. A new plume injection height technique was developed based on the Naval Research Laboratory's (NRL) detection algorithm for pyro-convection. The NRL method identified 29 pyro-cumulonimbus events that occurred during the summer of 2013, of which 13 (44%) impacted the SEACIONS study area, and 4 (14%) impacted the St. Louis area. In this study, we investigate wildfire plume injection heights using model simulations and the FLAMBE emissions inventory using 2 different algorithms. In the first case, wildfire emissions are injected at the surface and allowed to mix within the boundary layer simulated by the meteorological model. In the second case, the injection height of wildfire emissions is determined by a guided deep-convective pyroCb run using the NRL detection algorithm. Results show that simulations using surface emissions were able to represent the transport of carbon monoxide plumes from wildfires when the plumes remained below 5 km or occurred during large convective systems, but that the surface effects were over predicted. The pyroCb cases simulated the long-range transport of elevated plumes above 5 km 68% of the time. In addition analysis of potential vorticity suggests that stratospheric intrusions or tropopause folds affected 13 days (48%) when there were sonde launches and 27 days (44%) during the entire study period. The largest impact occurred on September 12, 2013 when ozone-rich air impacted the nocturnal boundary layer. By analyzing ozonesonde profiles with meteorological transport models, we were able to identify biomass burning and stratospheric intrusions in St. Louis.

Evaluation of Enviro-HIRLAM model and aerosols effect during wildfires episodes in Europe and Central Russia in summer 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuterman, Roman; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Baklanov, Alexander; Kaas, Eigil

2014-05-01

The summer of 2010 was characterized by severe weather events such as floods, heat waves and droughts across Middle East, most of Europe and European Russia. Among them the wildfires in Portugal and European Russia were some of the most prominent and led to substantial increase of atmospheric aerosols concentration. For instance, pollution from Russian wildfires, which were the most noticeable, spread around the entire central part of the country and also dispersed towards the Northern Europe. This study is devoted to Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) model evaluation and analysis of radiation balance change due to increased aerosol burden caused by wildfires in Russia. For this purpose the model was forced by boundary and initial conditions produced by ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) IFS and MOZART models for meteorology and atmospheric composition, respectively. The model setup included aerosol microphysics module M7 with simple tropospheric sulfur chemistry, anthropogenic emissions by TNO, wildfires emissions by FMI and interactive sea-salt and dust emissions. During the model run surface data assimilation of meteorological parameters was applied. The HIRLAM Savijarvi radiation scheme has been improved to account explicitly for aerosol radiation interactions. So that the short-wave radiative transfer calculations are performed as standard 2-stream calculations for averages of aerosol optical properties weighted over the entire spectrum. The model shows good correlation of particulate matter (PM) concentrations on diurnal cycle as well as day-to-day variability, but one always has negative bias of PM. The Enviro-HIRLAM is able to capture concentration peaks both from short-term and long-term trans boundary transport of PM and predicted the Aerosol Optical Thickness (at 550 nm) up to 2 over wildfire-polluted regions. And the direct radiative forcing is less than -100 W/m2.

Bird community specialization, bird conservation and disturbance: the role of wildfires.

PubMed

Clavero, Miguel; Brotons, Lluís; Herrando, Sergi

2011-01-01

1. Although niche theory predicts that disturbance should favour generalist species, the community-level implications of this pattern have been sparsely analysed. Here, we test the hypothesis that disturbance favours generalist species within communities, analysing effects of wildfires in bird communities in a Mediterranean climate area as a case study. 2. We use bird occurrence data in more than 500 1 × 1 km squares forming a gradient running from forest to completely burnt areas. The level of specialization of bird communities was estimated by means of three complementary species specialization indices, calculated for different landscape gradients and averaged at the community level (i.e. 1 × 1 km squares), and mean species rarity. 3. We also calculated mean habitat preferences along landscape gradients, as well as an index of conservation value and total species richness. 4. Different estimators of bird community specialization varied in contrasting fashion along the wildfire disturbance gradient, and thus we conclude that it is not justified to expect unique community responses to the sharp variations in habitat characteristics brought by wildfire disturbances. 5. Burnt areas tended to have rarer and urban-avoider bird species, whereas unburnt forests tended to have larger proportions of forest specialist species. 6. The mean conservation value of communities clearly increased towards the burnt extreme of the wildfire disturbance gradient, while this had a negligible effect on species richness. 7. Wildfires seem to play an important role for the maintenance of open-habitat, urban-avoider bird populations in Mediterranean landscapes and also to benefit a set of bird species of unfavourable European conservation status. 8. In this context, it cannot be unambiguously concluded that fire disturbance, even in a context in which fires are greatly favoured by human-related activities, leads to more functionally simplified communities dominated by generalist species. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Wildfire Danger Potential in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Myoung, B.; Kim, S. H.; Fujioka, F. M.; Kim, J.

2015-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in California (CA) which is characterized by the semi-arid to arid climate and vegetation types. Highly variable winter precipitation and extended hot and dry warm season in the region challenge an effective strategic fire management. Climatologically, the fire season which is based on live fuel moisture (LFM) of generally below 80% in Los Angeles County spans 4 months from mid-July to mid-November, but it has lasted over 7 months in the past several years. This behavior is primarily due to the ongoing drought in CA during the last decade, which is responsible for frequent outbreaks of severe wildfires in the region. Despite their importance, scientific advances for the recent changes in wildfire risk and effective assessments of wildfire risk are lacking. In the present study, we show impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulations on an early start and then extended length of fire seasons. For example, the strong relationships of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with springtime temperature and precipitation in the SWUS that was recently revealed by our team members have led to an examination of the possible impact of NAO on wildfire danger in the spring. Our results show that the abnormally warm and dry spring conditions associated with positive NAO phases can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risks throughout the summer and fall. For an effective fire danger assessment, we have tested the capability of satellite vegetation indices (VIs) in replicating in situ LFM of Southern CA chaparral ecosystems by 1) comparing seasonal/interannual characteristics of in-situ LFM with VIs and 2) developing an empirical model function of LFM. Unlike previous studies attempting a point-to-point comparison, we attempt to examine the LFM relationship with VIs averaged over different areal coverage with chamise-dominant grids (i.e., 0.5 km to 25 km radius circles). Lastly, we discuss implications of the results for fire danger assessment and prediction.

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions.

PubMed

Liang, Shuang; Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate-wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium-high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Three-dimensional canopy fuel loading predicted using upward and downward sensing LiDAR systems

Treesearch

Nicholas S. Skowronski; Kenneth L. Clark; Matthew Duveneck; John. Hom

2011-01-01

We calibrated upward sensing profiling and downward sensing scanning LiDAR systems to estimates of canopy fuel loading developed from field plots and allometric equations, and then used the LiDAR datasets to predict canopy bulk density (CBD) and crown fuel weight (CFW) in wildfire prone stands in the New Jersey Pinelands. LiDAR-derived height profiles were also...

Predicting post-fire hillslope erosion in forest lands of the western United States

Treesearch

Mary Ellen Miller; Lee H. MacDonald; Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot

2011-01-01

Many forests and their associated water resources are at increasing risk from large and severe wildfires due to high fuel accumulations and climate change. Extensive fuel treatments are being proposed, but it is not clear where such treatments should be focussed. The goals of this project were to: (1) predict potential post-fire erosion rates for forests and shrublands...

The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating.

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Ken Westrick; Sue A. Ferguson; Scott L. Goodrick; Larry Bradshaw; Paul Werth

2004-01-01

Previous studies of model performance at varying resolutions have focused on winter storms or isolated convective events. Little attention has been given to the static high pressure situations that may lead to severe wildfire outbreaks. This study focuses on such an event so as to evaluate the value of increased model resolution for prediction of fire danger. The...

The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Ken Westrick; Sue a. Ferguson; Scott L. Goodrick; Larry Bradshaw; Paul Wreth

2004-01-01

Previous studies of model perfonnance at varying resolutions have focused on winter stonns or isolated convective events. Little attention has been given to the static high pressure situations that may lead to severe wildfire outbreaks. This study focuses on such an event so as to evaluate the value of increased model resolution for prediction of fire danger. The...

Some Wildfire Ignition Causes Pose More Risk of Destroying Houses than Others

PubMed Central

Penman, Trent D.; Price, Owen F.

2016-01-01

Many houses are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires. While previous studies have improved our understanding of how, when and why houses are destroyed by wildfires, little attention has been given to how these fires started. We compiled a dataset of wildfires that destroyed houses in New South Wales and Victoria and, by comparing against wildfires where no houses were destroyed, investigated the relationship between the distribution of ignition causes for wildfires that did and did not destroy houses. Powerlines, lightning and deliberate ignitions are the main causes of wildfires that destroyed houses. Powerlines were 6 times more common in the wildfires that destroyed houses data than in the wildfires where no houses were destroyed data and lightning was 2 times more common. For deliberate- and powerline-caused wildfires, temperature, wind speed, and forest fire danger index were all significantly higher and relative humidity significantly lower (P < 0.05) on the day of ignition for wildfires that destroyed houses compared with wildfires where no houses were destroyed. For all powerline-caused wildfires the first house destroyed always occurred on the day of ignition. In contrast, the first house destroyed was after the day of ignition for 78% of lightning-caused wildfires. Lightning-caused wildfires that destroyed houses were significantly larger (P < 0.001) in area than human-caused wildfires that destroyed houses. Our results suggest that targeting fire prevention strategies around ignition causes, such as improving powerline safety and targeted arson reduction programmes, and reducing fire spread may decrease the number of wildfires that destroy houses. PMID:27598325

Some Wildfire Ignition Causes Pose More Risk of Destroying Houses than Others.

PubMed

Collins, Kathryn M; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

2016-01-01

Many houses are at risk of being destroyed by wildfires. While previous studies have improved our understanding of how, when and why houses are destroyed by wildfires, little attention has been given to how these fires started. We compiled a dataset of wildfires that destroyed houses in New South Wales and Victoria and, by comparing against wildfires where no houses were destroyed, investigated the relationship between the distribution of ignition causes for wildfires that did and did not destroy houses. Powerlines, lightning and deliberate ignitions are the main causes of wildfires that destroyed houses. Powerlines were 6 times more common in the wildfires that destroyed houses data than in the wildfires where no houses were destroyed data and lightning was 2 times more common. For deliberate- and powerline-caused wildfires, temperature, wind speed, and forest fire danger index were all significantly higher and relative humidity significantly lower (P < 0.05) on the day of ignition for wildfires that destroyed houses compared with wildfires where no houses were destroyed. For all powerline-caused wildfires the first house destroyed always occurred on the day of ignition. In contrast, the first house destroyed was after the day of ignition for 78% of lightning-caused wildfires. Lightning-caused wildfires that destroyed houses were significantly larger (P < 0.001) in area than human-caused wildfires that destroyed houses. Our results suggest that targeting fire prevention strategies around ignition causes, such as improving powerline safety and targeted arson reduction programmes, and reducing fire spread may decrease the number of wildfires that destroy houses.

Diurnal variations of wildfire emissions in Europe: analysis of the MODIS and SEVIRI measurements in the framework of the regional scale air pollution modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konovalov, Igor B.; Beekmann, Matthias; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Shudyaev, Anton A.; Yurova, Alla; Kuznetsova, Irina N.

2013-04-01

Wildfires episodically provide a major contribution to air pollution in many regions of the world. For example, the extreme air pollution level and strongly reduced visibility were observed in the Central European region of Russia during the intensive wildfire events in summer of 2010. Such episodes provide a strong impetus for further developments in air pollution modeling, aimed at improving the ability of chemistry transport models to simulate and predict evolution of atmospheric composition affected by wildfires. The main goals of our study are (1) to investigate the diurnal cycles of air pollutant emissions from wildfires in several European regions, taking into account the fire radiative power (FRP) satellite measurements for different vegetation land cover types and (2) to examine the possibilities of improving air pollution simulations by assimilating the diurnal variability of the FRP measurements performed by the polar orbiting (MODIS) and geostationary (SEVIRI) satellite instruments into a chemistry transport model. These goals are addressed for the case of wildfires occurred in summer 2010. The analysis of both the MODIS and SEVIRI data indicate that air pollutant emissions from wildfires in Europe in summer 2010 were typically much larger during daytime than during nighttime. The important exception is intensive fires around Moscow, featuring an almost "flat" diurnal cycle. These findings confirm the similar results reported earlier [1] but also extend them by attributing the flat diurnal cycle only to forest fires and by examining a hypothetical association of the "abnormal" diurnal cycle of FRP with peat fires. The derived diurnal variations of wildfire emissions have been used in the framework of the modeling system employed in our previous studies of the atmospheric effects of the 2010 Russian wildfires [2, 3]. The numerical experiments reveal that while the character of the diurnal variation of wildfire emissions has a rather small impact on the simulated evolution of primary air pollutants (such as CO and PM10), it considerably affects variability of daily ozone maximums. Moreover, it is found that assimilating the diurnal variability of wildfire emissions derived from the FRP measurements into our model leads to significant improvements in the agreement between the simulated and measured ozone concentrations in the Moscow region. References: 1. Kaiser, J. W., Heil, A., Andreae, M. O., Benedetti, A., Chubarova, N., Jones, L., Morcrette, J.-J., Razinger, M., Schultz, M. G., Suttie, M., and van der Werf, G. R.: Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power, Biogeosciences, 9, 527-554, doi:10.5194/bg-9-527-2012, 2012. 2. Konovalov, I. B., Beekmann, M., Kuznetsova, I. N., Yurova, A., and Zvyagintsev, A. M.: Atmospheric impacts of the 2010 Russian wildfires: integrating modelling and measurements of an extreme air pollution episode in the Moscow region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 10031-10056, doi:10.5194/acp-11-10031-2011, 2011. 3. Konovalov, I.B., Beekmann, M., D'Anna, B., and George C.: Significant light induced ozone loss on biomass burning aerosol:Evidence from chemistry-transport modeling based on new laboratory studies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17807, doi:10.1029/2012GL052432, 2012.

Integrating wildfire plume rises within atmospheric transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallia, D. V.; Kochanski, A.; Wu, D.; Urbanski, S. P.; Krueger, S. K.; Lin, J. C.

2016-12-01

Wildfires can generate significant pyro-convection that is responsible for releasing pollutants, greenhouse gases, and trace species into the free troposphere, which are then transported a significant distance downwind from the fire. Oftentimes, atmospheric transport and chemistry models have a difficult time resolving the transport of smoke from these wildfires, primarily due to deficiencies in estimating the plume injection height, which has been highlighted in previous work as the most important aspect of simulating wildfire plume transport. As a result of the uncertainties associated with modeled wildfire plume rise, researchers face difficulties modeling the impacts of wildfire smoke on air quality and constraining fire emissions using inverse modeling techniques. Currently, several plume rise parameterizations exist that are able to determine the injection height of fire emissions; however, the success of these parameterizations has been mixed. With the advent of WRF-SFIRE, the wildfire plume rise and injection height can now be explicitly calculated using a fire spread model (SFIRE) that is dynamically linked with the atmosphere simulated by WRF. However, this model has only been tested on a limited basis due to computational costs. Here, we will test the performance of WRF-SFIRE in addition to several commonly adopted plume parameterizations (Freitas, Sofiev, and Briggs) for the 2013 Patch Springs (Utah) and 2012 Baker Canyon (Washington) fires, for both of which observations of plume rise heights are available. These plume rise techniques will then be incorporated within a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model (STILT) in order to simulate CO and CO2 concentrations during NASA's CARVE Earth Science Airborne Program over Alaska during the summer of 2012. Initial model results showed that STILT model simulations were unable to reproduce enhanced CO concentrations produced by Alaskan fires observed during 2012. Near-surface concentrations were drastically overestimated while free tropospheric concentrations of CO were underestimated, likely a result of STILT injecting the fire emissions strictly into the PBL. We show in this study to what degree coupling the STILT model with an external plume rise model can help mitigate these problems.

CASA Forest Cover Change Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher S.

2012-01-01

Deforestation and forest fires are global land cover changes that can be caused by both natural and human factors. Although monitoring forest fires in near-real time is critical for operational wildfire management, mapping historical wildfires in a spatially explicit fashion is also important for a number of reasons, including climate change studies (e.g., examining the relationship between rising temperatures and frequency of fires), fuel load management (e.g., deciding when and where to conduct controlled burns), and carbon cycle studies (e.g., quantifying how much CO2 is emitted by fires and for emissions reduction efforts under the United Nations programs for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation -- REDD).

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Predicting gully rejuvenation after wildfire using remotely sensed burn severity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyde, Kevin; Woods, Scott W.; Donahue, Jack

2007-05-01

The loss of surface vegetation and reduced infiltration caused by wildfires can trigger gully rejuvenation, resulting in damage to downstream aquatic resources and risk to human life and property. We developed a spatially explicit metric of burn severity — the Burn Severity Distribution Index (BSDI) — and tested its ability to predict post-fire gully rejuvenation in 1st and 2nd order basins burned in the 2000 Valley Complex fires in the Sapphire Mountains of western Montana. The BSDI was derived from burn severity data interpreted from Landsat 7 satellite imagery using the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) method, and ranged from 0.0 for completely unburned basins to 4.0 for basins burned entirely at high severity. In July 2001 rainstorms with peak 30-minute intensities of up to 17 mm h - 1 triggered gully rejuvenation in 66 of the 171 basins examined. The frequency of gully rejuvenation was higher in basins with higher BSDI values, increasing from zero for basins with a BSDI less than 1.3 to 67% for basins with a BSDI greater than 3.0. Binary logistic regression indicated that BSDI was a more significant predictor of gully rejuvenation than basin morphometric variables. The absence of gully rejuvenation in several basins with a high BSDI was attributed to low gradient, dense riparian vegetation, or concentration of high burn severity at lower elevations in the basin. The presence of gully rejuvenation in several basins with a low BSDI was associated with false negative NBR classification errors in northwest aspects, and concentration of severe burn impacts in the drainage headslopes. BSDI is a useful metric for predicting gully rejuvenation after wildfire. The use of the BSDI in Burned Area Emergency Response team assessments could improve the planning, implementation, and monitoring of burned area recovery treatments.

BlueSky Cloud - rapid infrastructure capacity using Amazon's Cloud for wildfire emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haderman, M.; Larkin, N. K.; Beach, M.; Cavallaro, A. M.; Stilley, J. C.; DeWinter, J. L.; Craig, K. J.; Raffuse, S. M.

2013-12-01

During peak fire season in the United States, many large wildfires often burn simultaneously across the country. Smoke from these fires can produce air quality emergencies. It is vital that incident commanders, air quality agencies, and public health officials have smoke impact information at their fingertips for evaluating where fires and smoke are and where the smoke will go next. To address the need for this kind of information, the U.S. Forest Service AirFire Team created the BlueSky Framework, a modeling system that predicts concentrations of particle pollution from wildfires. During emergency response, decision makers use BlueSky predictions to make public outreach and evacuation decisions. The models used in BlueSky predictions are computationally intensive, and the peak fire season requires significantly more computer resources than off-peak times. Purchasing enough hardware to run the number of BlueSky Framework runs that are needed during fire season is expensive and leaves idle servers running the majority of the year. The AirFire Team and STI developed BlueSky Cloud to take advantage of Amazon's virtual servers hosted in the cloud. With BlueSky Cloud, as demand increases and decreases, servers can be easily spun up and spun down at a minimal cost. Moving standard BlueSky Framework runs into the Amazon Cloud made it possible for the AirFire Team to rapidly increase the number of BlueSky Framework instances that could be run simultaneously without the costs associated with purchasing and managing servers. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the features of BlueSky Cloud, describe how the system uses Amazon Cloud, and discuss the costs and benefits of moving from privately hosted servers to a cloud-based infrastructure.

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2016-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Forecasting wildland fire behavior using high-resolution large-eddy simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Esparza, D.; Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Anderson, A.; DeCastro, A.; Brown, B.

2017-12-01

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. To this end, the state of Colorado is funding the development of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS). The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enhanced with a fire behavior module (WRF-Fire). Realistic representation of wildland fire behavior requires explicit representation of small scale weather phenomena to properly account for coupled atmosphere-wildfire interactions. Moreover, transport and dispersion of biomass burning emissions from wildfires is controlled by turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer, which are difficult to parameterize and typically lead to large errors when simplified source estimation and injection height methods are used. Therefore, we utilize turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations at a resolution of 111 m to forecast fire spread and smoke distribution using a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model. This presentation will describe our improvements to the level-set based fire-spread algorithm in WRF-Fire and an evaluation of the operational system using 12 wildfire events that occurred in Colorado in 2016, as well as other historical fires. In addition, the benefits of explicit representation of turbulence for smoke transport and dispersion will be demonstrated.

Climate Change, Wildland Fires and Public Health | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change is contributing to an increase in the severity of wildland fires. The annual acreage burned in the U.S. has risen steadily since 1985, and the fire season has lengthened. Wildland fires impair air quality by producing massive quantities of particulate air pollutants and ozone precursors. Together particles and ozone exposures increase the risk of premature death and acute and chronic cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity among vulnerable individuals. Future wildfires are predicted to be larger, more severe and more frequent in some regions of the U.S and will contribute to an even greater proportion of the ambient air pollution, the disease burden and healthcare costs.While the projected magnitude of the public health impact of climate change-related wildfire events is uncertain, it is clear that the proportion of the U.S. population vulnerable to the adverse health effects of wildland fire and its smoke is increasing. An aging population with chronic respiratory diseases and increasing obesity and diabetes that heralds more cardiovascular disease will increase the vulnerability of the population to the adverse effects of wildfire smoke and associated stressors. Additionally, physiological changes attendant to aging decrease the capacity of aged-adults to tolerate wildfire smoke, heat, humidity, evacuation and recovery. Expansion of our cities into the wildland-urban interface is also placing a greater proportion of the population in clo

Trial by fire: Community Wildfire Protection Plans put to the test

Treesearch

Pamela J. Jakes; Victoria Sturtevant

2013-01-01

Research has found that community wildfire protection planning can make significant contributions to wildfire mitigation and preparedness, but can the planning process and resulting Community Wildfire Protection Plans make a difference to wildfire response and recovery? In case studies conducted in four USA communities with Community Wildfire Protection Plans in place...

LANDFIRE 2010 - updated data to support wildfire and ecological management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Kurtis J.; Connot, Joel A.; Peterson, Birgit E.; Picotte, Joshua J.

2013-01-01

Wildfire is a global phenomenon that affects human populations and ecosystems. Wildfire effects occur at local to global scales impacting many people in different ways (Figure 1). Ecological concerns due to land use, fragmentation, and climate change impact natural resource use, allocation, and conservation. Access to consistent and current environmental data is a constant challenge, yet necessary for understanding the complexities of wildfire and ecological management. Data products and tools from the LANDFIRE Program help decision-makers to clarify problems and identify possible solutions when managing fires and natural resources. LANDFIRE supports the reduction of risk from wildfire to human lives and property, monitoring of fire danger, prediction of fire behavior on active incidents, and assessment of fire severity and impacts on natural systems [1] [2] [3]. LANDFIRE products are unique in that they are nationally consistent and provide the only complete geospatial dataset describing vegetation and wildland fuel information for the entire U.S. As such, LANDFIRE data are useful for many ecological applications [3]. For example, LANDFIRE data were recently integrated into a decision-support system for resource management and conservation decision-making along the Appalachian Trail. LANDFIRE is a joint effort between the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Wildland Fire, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management, and The Nature Conservancy. To date, seven versions of LANDFIRE data have been released, with each successive version improving the quality of the data, adding additional features, and/or updating the time period represented by the data. The latest version, LANDFIRE 2010 (LF 2010), released mid-2013, represents circa 2010 landscape conditions and succeeds LANDFIRE 2008 (LF 2008), which represented circa 2008 landscape conditions. LF 2010 used many of the same processes developed for the LF 2008 effort [3]. Ongoing refinement of the LANDFIRE vegetation and fuel data is necessary to improve the quality and usability of the data and to capture landscape disturbance. LANDFIRE relies on Landsat multi-spectral imagery to produce and update vegetation and fuel data. The deep Landsat archive provides data needed for vegetation classification, change analysis, and historical disturbance characterization, for which LANDFIRE has used more than 24,000 image scenes since the program’s inception. In addition, LF 2010 used airborne and spaceborne lidar, and spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map vegetation structure in areas where ground-based field information was lacking, including Alaska and U.S.-affiliated islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific. The mapping of insular areas is new for the 2010 data release; previous versions of LANDFIRE were limited to the conterminous U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii.

Post-wildfire landscape change and erosional processes from repeat terrestrial lidar in a steep headwater catchment, Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, Stephen B.; Youberg, Ann M.; DeLong, Whitney M.; Murphy, Brendan P.

2018-01-01

Flooding and erosion after wildfires present increasing hazard as climate warms, semi-arid lands become drier, population increases, and the urban interface encroaches farther into wildlands. We quantify post-wildfire erosion in a steep, initially unchannelized, 7.5 ha headwater catchment following the 2011 Horseshoe 2 Fire in the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona. Using time-lapse cameras, rain gauges, and repeat surveys by terrestrial laser scanner, we quantify the response of a burned landscape to subsequent precipitation events. Repeat surveys provide detailed pre-and post-rainfall measurements of landscape form associated with a range of weather events. The first post-fire precipitation led to sediment delivery equivalent to 0.017 m of erosion from hillslopes and 0.12 m of erosion from colluvial hollows. Volumetrically, 69% of sediment yield was generated from hillslope erosion and 31% was generated from gully channel establishment in colluvial hollows. Processes on hillslopes included erosion by extensive shallow overland flow, formation of rills and gullies, and generation of sediment-laden flows and possibly debris flows. Subsequent smaller rain events caused ongoing hillslope erosion and local deposition and erosion in gullies. Winter freeze-thaw led to soil expansion, likely related to frost-heaving, causing a net centimeter-scale elevation increase across soil-mantled slopes. By characterizing landscape form, the properties of near-surface materials, and measuring both precipitation and landscape change, we can improve our empirical understanding of landscape response to environmental forcing. This detailed approach to studying landscape response to wildfires may be useful in the improvement of predictive models of flood, debris flow and sedimentation hazards used in post-wildfire response assessments and land management, and may help improve process-based models of landscape evolution.

Future inhibition of ecosystem productivity by increasing wildfire pollution over boreal North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, X.; Strada, S.; Unger, N.

2017-12-01

Biomass burning is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) and aerosols, which can affect vegetation photosynthesis through stomatal uptake (for O3) and light scattering and meteorological variations (for aerosols). Climate change will significantly increase wildfire activity in boreal North America by the midcentury, while little is known about the impacts of enhanced emissions on the terrestrial carbon budget. Here, combining site-level and satellite observations and a carbon-chemistry-climate model, we estimate the impacts of fire emitted O3 and aerosols on net primary productivity (NPP) over boreal North America. Fire emissions are calculated based on an ensemble projection from 13 climate models. In the present day, wildfire enhances surface O3 by 2 ppbv (7%) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm by 0.03 (26%) in the summer. By midcentury, boreal area burned is predicted to increase by 66%, contributing more O3 (13%) and aerosols (37%). Fire O3 causes negligible impacts on NPP because ambient O3 concentration is far below the damaging thresholds. Fire aerosols reduce surface solar radiation but enhance atmospheric absorption, resulting in enhanced air stability and intensified regional drought. The domain of this drying is confined to the North in the present day, but extends southward by 2050 due to increased fire emissions. Consequently, wildfire aerosols enhance NPP by 72 Tg C yr-1 in the present day but decrease NPP by 118 Tg C yr-1 in the future, mainly because of the soil moisture perturbations. Our results suggest that future wildfire may accelerate boreal carbon loss, not only through direct emissions, but also through the biophysical impacts of fire aerosols.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Post-wildfire landscape change and erosional processes from repeat terrestrial lidar in a steep headwater catchment, Chiricahua Mountains, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLong, Stephen B.; Youberg, Ann M.; DeLong, Whitney M.; Murphy, Brendan P.

2018-01-01

Flooding and erosion after wildfires present increasing hazard as climate warms, semi-arid lands become drier, population increases, and the urban interface encroaches farther into wildlands. We quantify post-wildfire erosion in a steep, initially unchannelized, 7.5 ha headwater catchment following the 2011 Horseshoe 2 Fire in the Chiricahua Mountains of southeastern Arizona. Using time-lapse cameras, rain gauges, and repeat surveys by terrestrial laser scanner, we quantify the response of a burned landscape to subsequent precipitation events. Repeat surveys provide detailed pre-and post-rainfall measurements of landscape form associated with a range of weather events. The first post-fire precipitation led to sediment delivery equivalent to 0.017 m of erosion from hillslopes and 0.12 m of erosion from colluvial hollows. Volumetrically, 69% of sediment yield was generated from hillslope erosion and 31% was generated from gully channel establishment in colluvial hollows. Processes on hillslopes included erosion by extensive shallow overland flow, formation of rills and gullies, and generation of sediment-laden flows and possibly debris flows. Subsequent smaller rain events caused ongoing hillslope erosion and local deposition and erosion in gullies. Winter freeze-thaw led to soil expansion, likely related to frost-heaving, causing a net centimeter-scale elevation increase across soil-mantled slopes. By characterizing landscape form, the properties of near-surface materials, and measuring both precipitation and landscape change, we can improve our empirical understanding of landscape response to environmental forcing. This detailed approach to studying landscape response to wildfires may be useful in the improvement of predictive models of flood, debris flow and sedimentation hazards used in post-wildfire response assessments and land management, and may help improve process-based models of landscape evolution.

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

PubMed

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

Filling Gaps in Biogeochemical Understanding of Wildfire Effects on Watersheds and Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhoades, Charles; Covino, Timothy; Chow, Alex

2017-04-01

Large, high-severity wildfires alter the biogeochemical conditions that determine how watersheds retain and release nutrients and influence stream water quality. These effects are commonly expected to abate within a few years, but recent studies show that post-fire watershed changes can have persistent, but poorly-understood biogeochemical consequences. Owing to the increased frequency and extent of high-severity wildfires predicted for western North America, and the growing awareness of the links between wildfire and clean water supply, there is a need to address these knowledge gaps. For the past 15 years we have tracked stream nutrients, chemistry, temperature, and sediment after the 2002 Hayman Fire, the largest wildfire in Colorado history. Our earlier work showed that headwater catchments that experienced extensive, high-severity forest fires had elevated stream nitrate, temperature, and turbidity for five post-fire years. Recent sampling, conducted 13 and 14 years after the fire, found that turbidity had largely returned to pretreatment levels, but that stream nitrate remained an order of magnitude above pre-fire levels in catchments with extensive high-severity wildfire. Stream temperature and total dissolved nitrogen concentration also remained higher in those catchments compared to unburned streams. Decreased plant demand is the mechanism commonly credited for post-fire nutrient losses, though our current work is evaluating the implications of soil and stream nutrient uptake and supply on persistent nitrogen (N) export from severely-burned catchments. For example, we have measured higher total soil N and higher net N mineralization in severely-burned portions of the Hayman Fire compared to moderately or unburned areas, indicating that higher soil N supply may contribute to N losses from upland soils. Conversely, using a nutrient tracer approach we found reduced N uptake in burned streams, which suggests a switch from the N-limited conditions typical of pristine catchments. Low stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in severely-burned catchments suggests greater carbon limitation on in-stream biological activity. This is the likely result of organic matter losses during the wildfire compounded by low allochthonous inputs from uplands or riparian zones. We also find that catchments with severely-burned headwater reaches and sparse riparian vegetation have high stream nitrate. Our findings regarding soil N supply and in-stream N retention coupled with the persistent N losses from burned headwaters and exposed riparian zones help prioritize restoration efforts aimed at mitigating long-term water quality effects of severe wildfires.

The lost summer: Community experiences of large wildfires in Trinity County, California

Treesearch

Emily J. Davis; Cassandra Moseley; Pamela Jakes; Max Nielsen-Pincus

2011-01-01

As wildfires are increasing in scale and duration, and communities are increasingly located where these wildfires are occurring, we need a clearer understanding of how large wildfires affect economic and social well being. These wildfires can have complex impacts on rural public lands communities. They can threaten homes, public health, and livelihoods. Wildfires can...

Prediction of forest canopy and surface fuels from lidar and satellite time series data in a bark beetle-affected forest

Treesearch

Benjamin C. Bright; Andrew T. Hudak; Arjan J. H. Meddens; Todd J. Hawbaker; Jennifer S. Briggs; Robert E. Kennedy

2017-01-01

Wildfire behavior depends on the type, quantity, and condition of fuels, and the effect that bark beetle outbreaks have on fuels is a topic of current research and debate. Remote sensing can provide estimates of fuels across landscapes, although few studies have estimated surface fuels from remote sensing data. Here we predicted and mapped field-measured canopy and...

Characterizing Wildfire Regimes and Risk in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, B. D.; Millington, J. D.; Perry, G. L.

2004-12-01

Over the last decade, high profile wildfires have resulted in numerous fatalities and loss of infrastructure. Wildfires also have a significant impact on climate and ecosystems, with recent authors emphasizing the need for regional-level examinations of wildfire-regime dynamics and change, and the factors driving them. With implications for hazard management, climate studies, and ecosystem research, there is therefore significant interest in appropriate analysis of historical wildfire databases. Insightful studies using wildfire database statistics exist, but are often hampered by the low spatial and/or temporal resolution of their datasets. In this paper, we use a high-resolution dataset consisting of 88,855 USFS wildfires over the time period 1970--2000, and consider wildfire occurrence across the conterminous USA as a function of ecoregion (land units classified by climate, vegetation, and topography), ignition source (anthropogenic vs. lightning), and decade (1970--1979, 1980--1989, 1990--1999). We find that for the conterminous USA (a) wildfires exhibit robust frequency-area power-law behavior in 17 different ecoregions, (b) normalized power-law exponents may be used to compare the scaling of wildfire burned areas between regions, (c) power-law exponents change systematically from east to west, (d) wildfires in 75% of the conterminous USA (particularly the east) have higher power-law exponents for anthropogenic vs. lightning ignition sources, and (e) recurrence intervals for wildfires of a given burned area or larger for each ecoregion can be assessed, allowing for the classification of wildfire regimes for probabilistic hazard estimation in the same vein as is now used for earthquakes. By examining wildfire statistics in a spatially and temporally explicit manner, we are able to present resultant wildfire regime summary statistics and conclusions, along with a probabilistic hazard assessment of wildfire risk at the ecoregion division level across the conterminous USA.

Modeling Wildfire Hazard in the Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bylow, D.

2012-12-01

Wildfire regimes are a leading driver of global environmental change affecting a diverse array of global ecosystems. Particulates and aerosols produced by wildfires are a primary source of air pollution making the early detection and monitoring of wildfires crucial. The objectives of this study were to model regional wildfire potential and identify environmental, topological, and sociological factors that contribute to the ignition of wildfire events in the Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas of South Asia. The environmental, topological, and sociological factors were used to model regional wildfire potential through multi-criteria evaluation using a method of weighted linear combination. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and geographic information systems (GIS) data were integrated to analyze regional wildfires and construct the model. Model validation was performed using a holdout cross validation method. The study produced a significant model of wildfire potential in the Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas.; Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas ; Western Hindu Kush-Himalayas Wildfire Potential

The direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke on a severe thunderstorm event in the Baltic Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, V.; Männik, A.

2015-03-01

On August 8, 2010, a severe derecho type thunderstorm in the Baltic Sea region coincided with smoke from wildfires in Russia. Remarkable smoke aerosol concentrations, with a maximum aerosol optical depth of more than 2 at 550 nm, were observed near the thunderstorm. The impact of the wildfire smoke on the thunderstorm through direct radiative effects was investigated using the Hirlam Aladin Research for Mesoscale Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Euromed (HARMONIE) model. HARMONIE was successfully able to resolve the dynamics of the thunderstorm, and simulations that considered the influence of the smoke-related aerosols were compared to simulation without aerosols. As simulated by the HARMONIE model, the smoke reduced the shortwave radiation flux at the surface by as much as 300 W/m2 and decreased the near-surface temperature by as much as 3 °C in the vicinity of the thunderstorm and respectively 100 W/m2 and 1 °C in the thunderstorm region. Atmospheric instability decreased through the direct radiative effect of aerosols, and several dynamic features of the simulated thunderstorm appeared slightly weaker.

Human Response to Emergency Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, J.

2009-12-01

Almost every day people evacuate from their homes, businesses or other sites, even ships, in response to actual or predicted threats or hazards. Evacuation is the primary protective action utilized in large-scale emergencies such as hurricanes, floods, tornados, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, or wildfires. Although often precautionary, protecting human lives by temporally relocating populations before or during times of threat remains a major emergency management strategy. One of the most formidable challenges facing emergency officials is evacuating residents for a fast-moving and largely unpredictable event such as a wildfire or a local tsunami. How to issue effective warnings to those at risk in time for residents to take appropriate action is an on-going problem. To do so, some communities have instituted advanced communications systems that include reverse telephone call-down systems or other alerting systems to notify at-risk residents of imminent threats. This presentation examines the effectiveness of using reverse telephone call-down systems for warning San Diego residents of wildfires in the October of 2007. This is the first systematic study conducted on this topic and is based on interviews with 1200 households in the evacuation areas.

Optimizing Precipitation Thresholds for Best Correlation Between Dry Lightning and Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vant-Hull, Brian; Thompson, Tollisha; Koshak, William

2018-03-01

This work examines how to adjust the definition of "dry lightning" in order to optimize the correlation between dry lightning flash count and the climatology of large (>400 km2) lightning-ignited wildfires over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The National Lightning Detection Network™ and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV radar-based, gauge-adjusted precipitation data are used to form climatic data sets. For a 13 year analysis period over CONUS, a correlation of 0.88 is found between annual totals of wildfires and dry lightning. This optimal correlation is found by defining dry lightning as follows: on a 0.1° hourly grid, a precipitation threshold of no more than 0.3 mm may accumulate during any hour over a period of 3-4 days preceding the flash. Regional optimized definitions vary. When annual totals are analyzed as done here, no clear advantage is found by weighting positive polarity cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning differently than -CG lightning. The high variability of dry lightning relative to the precipitation and lightning from which it is derived suggests it would be an independent and useful climate indicator.

Assessing accuracy of a probabilistic model for very large fire in the Rocky Mountains: A High Park Fire case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavros, E.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Larkin, N.; McKenzie, D.; Steel, A.

2012-12-01

Across the western United States, the largest wildfires account for a major proportion of the area burned and substantially affect mountain forests and their associated ecosystem services, among which is pristine air quality. These fires commandeer national attention and significant fire suppression resources. Despite efforts to understand the influence of fuel loading, climate, and weather on annual area burned, few studies have focused on understanding what abiotic factors enable and drive the very largest wildfires. We investigated the correlation between both antecedent climate and in-situ biophysical variables and very large (>20,000 ha) fires in the western United States from 1984 to 2009. We built logistic regression models, at the spatial scale of the national Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs), to estimate the probability that a given day is conducive to a very large wildfire. Models vary in accuracy and in which variables are the best predictors. In a case study of the conditions of the High Park Fire, neighboring Fort Collins, Colorado, occurring in early summer 2012, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Rocky Mountain model.

Encouraging Wildland Fire Preparedness: Lessons Learned from Three Wildfire Education Programs

Treesearch

Victoria Sturtevant; Sarah McCaffrey

2006-01-01

Managers may often wonder why some people do not choose to adopt defensible space practices despite understanding the benefits of doing so. Research has sought to understand why a new practice or innovation is or is not adopted. This paper will briefly discuss factors found to influence adoption rates and describe how three different fire education programs - Firewise...

A spatial database for restoration management capability on national forests in the Pacific Northwest USA

Treesearch

Chris Ringo; Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Sarah Crim

2016-01-01

Understanding the capacity to reduce wildfire risk and restore dry forests on Western national forests is a key part of prioritizing new accelerated restoration programs initiated by the Forest Service. Although a number of social and biophysical factors influence the ability to implement restoration programs, one key driver is the suite of forest plan land...

Residents warming up to fuels management: homeowners? acceptance of wildfire and fuels management in the wildland-urban interface

Treesearch

Greg Winter; Christine Vogt; Sarah McCaffrey

2006-01-01

Many wildland fire managers, concerned about public acceptance of local fuels management programs, want to better communicate with local residents about these programs. Research at diverse study sites shows wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents rely on common factors to decide whether or not to support particular fuels management approaches such as prescribed...

Collaborative restoration effects on forest structure in ponderosa pine-dominated forests of Colorado

Treesearch

Jeffery B. Cannon; Kevin J. Barrett; Benjamin M. Gannon; Robert N. Addington; Mike A. Battaglia; Paula J. Fornwalt; Gregory H. Aplet; Antony S. Cheng; Jeffrey L. Underhill; Jennifer S. Briggs; Peter M. Brown

2018-01-01

In response to large, severe wildfires in historically fire-adapted forests in the western US, policy initiatives, such as the USDA Forest Service’s Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP), seek to increase the pace and scale of ecological restoration. One required component of this program is collaborative adaptive management, in which monitoring...

Burn me twice, shame on who? Interactions between successive forest fires across a temperate mountain region.

PubMed

Harvey, Brian J; Donato, Daniel C; Turner, Monica G

2016-09-01

Increasing rates of natural disturbances under a warming climate raise important questions about how multiple disturbances interact. Escalating wildfire activity in recent decades has resulted in some forests re-burning in short succession, but how the severity of one wildfire affects that of a subsequent wildfire is not fully understood. We used a field-validated, satellite-derived, burn-severity atlas to assess interactions between successive wildfires across the US Northern Rocky Mountains a 300,000-km 2 region dominated by fire-prone forests. In areas that experienced two wildfires between 1984 and 2010, we asked: (1) How do overall frequency distributions of burn-severity classes compare between first and second fires? (2) In a given location, how does burn severity of the second fire relate to that of the first? (3) Do interactions between successive fires vary by forest zone or the interval between fires? (4) What factors increase the probability of burning twice as stand-replacing fire? Within the study area, 138,061 ha burned twice between 1984 and 2010. Overall, frequency distributions of burn severity classes (low, moderate, high; quantified using relativized remote sensing indices) were similar between the first and second fires; however burn severity was 5-13% lower in second fires on average. Negative interactions between fires were most pronounced in lower-elevation forests and woodlands, when fire intervals were <10 yr, and when burn severity was low in the first fire. When the first fire burned as high severity and fire intervals exceeded 10-12 yr, burn-severity interactions switched from negative to positive, with high-severity fire begetting subsequent high-severity fire. Locations most likely to experience successive stand-replacing fires were high-elevation forests, which are adapted to high-severity fire, and areas conducive to abundant post-fire tree regeneration. Broadly similar severities among short-interval "re-burns" and other wildfires indicate that positive severity feedbacks, an oft-posited agent of ecosystem decline or state shift, are not an inevitable outcome of re-burning. Nonetheless, context-dependent shifts in both the magnitude and direction of wildfire interactions (associated with forest zone, initial burn-severity, and disturbance interval) illustrate complexities in disturbance interactions and can inform management and predictions of future system dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assessing fire impacts on the carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests.

PubMed

Bennett, Lauren T; Bruce, Matthew J; Machunter, Josephine; Kohout, Michele; Krishnaraj, Saravanan Jangammanaidu; Aponte, Cristina

2017-12-01

The carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests is often assumed but less frequently assessed, limiting the potential to anticipate threats to forest carbon posed by predicted increases in forest fire activity. Assessing the carbon stability of fire-tolerant forests requires multi-indicator approaches that recognize the myriad ways that fires influence the carbon balance, including combustion, deposition of pyrogenic material, and tree death, post-fire decomposition, recruitment, and growth. Five years after a large-scale wildfire in southeastern Australia, we assessed the impacts of low- and high-severity wildfire, with and without prescribed fire (≤10 yr before), on carbon stocks in multiple pools, and on carbon stability indicators (carbon stock percentages in live trees and in small trees, and carbon stocks in char and fuels) in fire-tolerant eucalypt forests. Relative to unburned forest, high-severity wildfire decreased short-term (five-year) carbon stability by significantly decreasing live tree carbon stocks and percentage stocks in live standing trees (reflecting elevated tree mortality), by increasing the percentage of live tree carbon in small trees (those vulnerable to the next fire), and by potentially increasing the probability of another fire through increased elevated fine fuel loads. In contrast, low-severity wildfire enhanced carbon stability by having negligible effects on aboveground stocks and indicators, and by significantly increasing carbon stocks in char and, in particular, soils, indicating pyrogenic carbon accumulation. Overall, recent preceding prescribed fire did not markedly influence wildfire effects on short-term carbon stability at stand scales. Despite wide confidence intervals around mean stock differences, indicating uncertainty about the magnitude of fire effects in these natural forests, our assessment highlights the need for active management of carbon assets in fire-tolerant eucalypt forests under contemporary fire regimes. Decreased live tree carbon and increased reliance on younger cohorts for carbon recovery after high-severity wildfire could increase vulnerabilities to imminent fires, leading to decisions about interventions to maintain the productivity of some stands. Our multi-indicator assessment also highlights the importance of considering all carbon pools, particularly pyrogenic reservoirs like soils, when evaluating the potential for prescribed fire regimes to mitigate the carbon costs of wildfires in fire-prone landscapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Impact of wildfire-induced land cover modification on local meteorology: A sensitivity study of the 2003 wildfires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Charles; Drobinski, Philippe; Turquety, Solène

2015-10-01

Wildfires alter land cover creating changes in dynamic, vegetative, radiative, thermal and hydrological properties of the surface. However, how so drastic changes induced by wildfires and how the age of the burnt scar affect the small and meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer dynamics are largely unknown. These questions are relevant for process analysis, meteorological and air quality forecast but also for regional climate analysis. Such questions are addressed numerically in this study on the case of the Portugal wildfires in 2003 as a testbed. In order to study the effects of burnt scars, an ensemble of numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) have been performed with different surface properties mimicking the surface state immediately after the fire, few days after the fire and few months after the fire. In order to investigate such issue in a seamless approach, the same modelling framework has been used with various horizontal resolutions of the model grid and land use, ranging from 3.5 km, which can be considered as the typical resolution of state-of-the art regional numerical weather prediction models to 14 km which is now the typical target resolution of regional climate models. The study shows that the combination of high surface heat fluxes over the burnt area, large differential heating with respect to the preserved surroundings and lower surface roughness produces very intense frontogenesis with vertical velocity reaching few meters per second. This powerful meso-scale circulation can pump more humid air from the surroundings not impacted by the wildfire and produce more cloudiness over the burnt area. The influence of soil temperature immediately after the wildfire ceases is mainly seen at night as the boundary-layer remains unstably stratified and lasts only few days. So the intensity of the induced meso-scale circulation decreases with time, even though it remains until full recovery of the vegetation. Finally all these effects are simulated whatever the land cover and model resolution and there are thus robust processes in both regional climate simulations and process studies or short-time forecast. However, the impact of burnt scars on the precipitation signal remains very uncertain, especially because low precipitation is at stake.

Combining Landsat TM multispectral satellite imagery and different modelling approaches for mapping post-fire erosion changes in a Mediterranean site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropoulos, George P.; Kairis, Orestis; Karamesouti, Mina; Papanikolaou, Ioannis D.; Kosmas, Constantinos

2013-04-01

South European countries are naturally vulnerable to wildfires. Their natural resources such as soil, vegetation and water may be severely affected by wildfires, causing an imminent environmental deterioration due to the complex interdependence among biophysical components. Soil surface water erosion is a natural process essential for soil formation that is affected by such interdependences. Accelerated erosion due to wildfires, constitutes a major restrictive factor for ecosystem sustainability. In 2007, South European countries were severely affected by wildfires, with more than 500,000 hectares of land burnt in that year alone, well above the average of the last 30 years. The present work examines the changes in spatial variability of soil erosion rates as a result of a wildfire event that took place in Greece in 2007, one of the most devastating years in terms of wildfire hazards. Regional estimates of soil erosion rates before and after the fire outbreak were derived from the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, Renard et al. 1991) and the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment model (PESERA, Kirkby, 1999; Kirkby et al., 2000). Inputs for both models included climatic, land-use, soil type, topography and land use management data. Where appropriate, both models were also fed with input data derived from the analysis of LANDSAT TM satellite imagery available in our study area, acquired before and shortly after the fire suppression. Our study was compiled and performed in a GIS environment. In overall, the loss of vegetation from the fire outbreak caused a substantial increase of soil erosion rates in the affected area, particularly towards the steep slopes. Both tested models were compared to each other and noticeable differences were observed in the soil erosion predictions before and after the fire event. These are attributed to the different parameterization requirements of the 2 models. This quantification of sediment supply through the river network provides also important insights regarding both the present-day sedimentation processes in the study area as well as the potential flooding hazard. Our work underpins that valuable contribution of remote sensing technology, combined with modeling approaches for depicting the spatial distribution of changes in erosion rates after the wildfire. KEYWORDS: erosion risk, RUSLE, PESERA, wildland fires, LANDSAT TM, remote sensing, Geographical Information Systems, Greece.

Operational air quality forecast guidance for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, Ivanka; Lee, Pius; Tong, Daniel; Pan, Li; McQueen, Jeff; Huang, Jinaping; Djalalova, Irina; Wilczak, James; Huang, Ho-Chun; Wang, Jun; Stein, Ariel; Upadhayay, Sikchya

2016-04-01

NOAA provides operational air quality predictions for ozone and wildfire smoke over the United States (U.S.) and predictions of airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. These predictions are produced using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Model for Air Quality (CMAQ) and NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Stein et al., 2015) with meteorological inputs from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The current efforts focus on improving test predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from CMAQ. Emission inputs for ozone and PM2.5 predictions include inventory information from the U.S. EPA and recently added contributions of particulate matter from intermittent wildfires and windblown dust that rely on near real-time information. Current testing includes refinement of the vertical grid structure in CMAQ and inclusion of contributions of dust transport from global sources into the U.S. domain using the NEMS Global Aerosol Capability (NGAC). The addition of wildfire smoke and dust contributions in CMAQ reduced model underestimation of PM2.5 in summertime. Wintertime overestimation of PM2.5 was reduced by suppressing emissions of soil particles when the terrain is covered by snow or ice. Nevertheless, seasonal biases and biases in the diurnal cycle of PM2.5 are still substantial. Therefore, a new bias correction procedure based on an analog ensemble approach was introduced (Djalalova et al., 2015). It virtually eliminates biases in monthly means or in the diurnal cycle, but it also reduces day-to-day variability in PM2.5 predictions. Refinements to the bias correction procedure are being developed. Upgrades for the representation of wildfire smoke emissions within the domain and from global sources are in testing. Another area of active development includes approaches to scale emission inventories for nitrogen oxides in order to reproduce recent changes observed by the AirNow surface monitoring network and by satellite instruments (Tong et al., 2015) and to use these updated emissions to improve ozone predictions (Pan et al., 2015). An overview of the impacts of these recent and ongoing efforts to improve predictions of ozone, smoke and PM2.5 will be presented. Djalalova, I. et al., 2015: PM2.5 analog forecast and Kalman filter post-processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.05.057. Pan L. et al., 2014: Assessment of NOx and O3 forecasting performances in the U.S. National Air Quality Forecasting Capability before and after the 2012 major emissions updates. Atmospheric Environment, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.06.020. Stein, A. et al., 2015: NOAA's HYSPLIT atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00110.1. Tong, D.Q. et al., 2015: Long-term NOx trends over large cities in the United States during the great recession: Comparison of satellite retrievals, ground observations, and emission inventories. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.01.035.

Wildfire in the United Kingdom: status and key issues

Treesearch

Julia McMorrow

2011-01-01

This paper reviews the status of wildfire risk in the United Kingdom and examines some of the key issues in U.K. wildfire management. Wildfires challenge the resources of U.K. Fire and Rescue Services (FRSs), especially in dry years, yet FRSs are poorly equipped and trained to deal with wildfire. A brief geography of U.K. wildfires is presented using fire statistics...

A conceptual framework for coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire to improve fireshed planning and risk mitigation

Treesearch

Jeff Kline; Alan A. Ager; Paige Fischer

2015-01-01

The need for improved methods for managing wildfire risk is becoming apparent as uncharacteristically large wildfires in the western US and elsewhere exceed government capacities for their control and suppression. We propose a coupled biophysical-social framework to managing wildfire risk that relies on wildfire simulation to identify spatial patterns of wildfire risk...

Forest legacies, climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species and water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.; Jarnevich, C.; Kumar, S.

2007-01-01

The factors that must be considered in seeking to predict changes in water availability has been examined. These factors are the following: forest legacies including logging, mining, agriculture, grazing, elimination of large carnivores, human-caused wildfire, and pollution; climate change and stream flow; altered disturbances such as frequency intensity and pattern of wildfires and insect outbreaks as well as flood control; lastly, invasive species like forest pests and pathogens. An integrated approach quantifying the current and past condition trends can be combined with spatial and temporal modeling to develop future change in forest structures and water supply. The key is a combination of geographic information system technologies with climate and land use scenarios, while preventing and minimizing the effects of harmful invasive species.

Wildfire smoke exposure and human health: Significant gaps in research for a growing public health issue.

PubMed

Black, Carolyn; Tesfaigzi, Yohannes; Bassein, Jed A; Miller, Lisa A

2017-10-01

Understanding the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on human health represents a unique interdisciplinary challenge to the scientific community. Population health studies indicate that wildfire smoke is a risk to human health and increases the healthcare burden of smoke-impacted areas. However, wildfire smoke composition is complex and dynamic, making characterization and modeling difficult. Furthermore, current efforts to study the effect of wildfire smoke are limited by availability of air quality measures and inconsistent air quality reporting among researchers. To help address these issues, we conducted a substantive review of wildfire smoke effects on population health, wildfire smoke exposure in occupational health, and experimental wood smoke exposure. Our goal was to evaluate the current literature on wildfire smoke and highlight important gaps in research. In particular we emphasize long-term health effects of wildfire smoke, recovery following wildfire smoke exposure, and health consequences of exposure in children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

PubMed

Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

2018-05-01

A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated considerations for determining social vulnerability to wildfire and articulate alternative means to collect such information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Yellowstone National Park predicted from remote sensing data and simulation modeling

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Results Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Conclusions Rates of recovery for burned forest areas to pre-1988 biomass levels were estimated from a unique combination of remote sensing and CASA model predictions. Ecosystem production and carbon fluxes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) result from complex interactions between climate, forest age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape. PMID:21835025

Carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Yellowstone National Park predicted from remote sensing data and simulation modeling.

PubMed

Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Crabtree, Robert; Huang, Shengli; Gross, Peggy; Genovese, Vanessa

2011-08-11

A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO2 is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades. Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr-1 (1 Tg = 1012 g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO2 on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas. Rates of recovery for burned forest areas to pre-1988 biomass levels were estimated from a unique combination of remote sensing and CASA model predictions. Ecosystem production and carbon fluxes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) result from complex interactions between climate, forest age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape.

Cross-scale interactions, legacies, and spatial connectivity: integrating time and space to predict post-disturbance response across scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Emergent properties and cross-scale interactions are important in driving landscape-scale dynamics during a disturbance event, such as wildfire. We used these concepts related to changing pattern-process relationships across scales to explain ecological responses following disturbance that resulted ...

The Wildland/Urban Interface in 2025

Treesearch

Gary O. Tokle

1987-01-01

In the year 2025, wildland fire fighting practices have improved significantly over the method employed during the late1900's. Improved methods for predicting severe fire weather conditions, the establishment of the North American Fire Coordination Center, and the utilization of foam products for both wildfire and structural fire control have significantly changed...

Prediction errors in wildland fire situation analyses.

Treesearch

Geoffrey H. Donovan; Peter Noordijk

2005-01-01

Wildfires consume budgets and put the heat on fire managers to justify and control suppression costs. To determine the appropriate suppression strategy, land managers must conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) when:A wildland fire is expected to or does escape initial attack,A wildland fire managed for resource benefits...

78 FR 49149 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Determination of Endangered Status for Sphaeralcea...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-13

... to further declines through stochastic wildfire events, spread of the nonnative grasses, and climate... descriptions predict the annual production (pounds per acre) of plant groups (grass/grass-like, forbs, shrub... than fewer numbers of shrubs and perennial grasses. Therefore, although an ecological site description...

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

2014-05-01

This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: a level-set-based fire propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the non-linearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially-uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically-generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of data assimilation strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

2014-11-01

This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: an Eulerian front propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation (DA) algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the nonlinearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based DA algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach, as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of DA strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

Estimating mercury emissions resulting from wildfire in forests of the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webster, Jackson; Kane, Tyler J.; Obrist, Daniel; Ryan, Joseph N.; Aiken, George R.

2016-01-01

Understanding the emissions of mercury (Hg) from wildfires is important for quantifying the global atmospheric Hg sources. Emissions of Hg from soils resulting from wildfires in the Western United States was estimated for the 2000 to 2013 period, and the potential emission of Hg from forest soils was assessed as a function of forest type and soil-heating. Wildfire released an annual average of 3100 ± 1900 kg-Hg y− 1 for the years spanning 2000–2013 in the 11 states within the study area. This estimate is nearly 5-fold lower than previous estimates for the study region. Lower emission estimates are attributed to an inclusion of fire severity within burn perimeters. Within reported wildfire perimeters, the average distribution of low, moderate, and high severity burns was 52, 29, and 19% of the total area, respectively. Review of literature data suggests that that low severity burning does not result in soil heating, moderate severity fire results in shallow soil heating, and high severity fire results in relatively deep soil heating (< 5 cm). Using this approach, emission factors for high severity burns ranged from 58 to 640 μg-Hg kg-fuel− 1. In contrast, low severity burns have emission factors that are estimated to be only 18–34 μg-Hg kg-fuel− 1. In this estimate, wildfire is predicted to release 1–30 g Hg ha− 1 from Western United States forest soils while above ground fuels are projected to contribute an additional 0.9 to 7.8 g Hg ha− 1. Land cover types with low biomass (desert scrub) are projected to release less than 1 g Hg ha− 1. Following soil sources, fuel source contributions to total Hg emissions generally followed the order of duff > wood > foliage > litter > branches.

Does wildfire cause cascading effects on aquatic C cycling? A study of soil, well and lake DOC composition and bio/photolability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olefeldt, D.; Turetsky, M. R.; Devito, K. J.; Blodau, C.

2012-12-01

In May 2011 a wildfire broke out north of Utikuma Lake in central Alberta, Canada, which eventually burned an area of ~880 km2. Wildfire alters soil properties, potentially altering the chemical composition of terrestrial DOC that reaches downstream aquatic environments. In order to study the potential effects of wildfire on lake carbon cycling, we sampled and incubated DOC from soil samples (n=52), wells (n=35) and lakes (n=32) from within and outside the recent fire perimeter. We incubated the DOC samples under both dark and UV conditions to assess both bio- and photolability, and followed DOC composition throughout the incubations by measuring DOC absorbing and fluorescing properties. A strong effect of wildfire was found among DOC samples leached from surface peatland and upland soils - with fire yielding increased DOC aromaticity associated with decreased biodegradability but also increased photolability. Parallel factor analysis of fluorescence matrices revealed distinct regions that were associated with DOC leached from charred soils, potentially linked to their lower biodegradability. Dark and UV conditions gave rise to very different trajectories of changes to DOC composition throughout incubations, with preferential losses of non-aromatic DOC under dark conditions and aromatic DOC under UV conditions. The DOC composition index that was found to best predict both DOC bio- and photolability was specific UV absorbance, which is also a very simple and quick index to measure. For lakes, we found that the primary influences on DOC composition and bio-/photolability was linked to lake size and hydrogeological setting (whether located on a lacustrine clay plain or in a moraine/outwash region) that controls groundwater influence and the hydrological connectivity to adjacent peatlands. Further analysis of well and lake water incubations will be used to detect whether wildfire can be detected to have a subtle secondary effect on DOC composition and lability or if the potential for cascading effects on lake C cycling due to altered soil DOC sources remain unrealized in the study region.

Biotic Responses of Headwater Streams to Geophysical Alteration and Disturbance Related to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gresswell, R. E.; Sedell, E. R.; Cannon, S.; Hostetler, S. W.; Williams, J. E.; Haak, A. L.; Kershner, J. L.

2009-12-01

Climate change will potentially alter physical habitat availability for trout species (both native and nonnative) in the western USA, and ultimately affect population distribution and abundance in watersheds across the region. To understand the biological consequences of habitat alteration associated with climate change, we have developed models linking contemporary patterns of occurrence and abundance to geomorphic variables (e.g., aspect, elevation, and slope) and stream conditions derived from the habitat (e.g., temperature, discharge, and flood regimes). Because headwater streams may be especially susceptible to catastrophic disturbances in the form of debris flow torrents that have the potential to radically alter the physical structure of channels and sometimes extirpate local fish populations, we are focusing fine-scale spatial analyses in the high elevation systems. Risks of such disturbances increase exponentially in landscapes that have experienced recent wildfires when high-intensity precipitation or runoff events occur. Although predicting the timing, extent, and severity of future wildfires or subsequent precipitation and runoff events is difficult, it is possible to identify channels within stream networks that may be prone to debris flows. These channels can be identified using models based on characteristic storm and burn scenarios and geographic information describing topographic, soil, and vegetation characteristics. At-risk channels are being mapped throughout the stream networks within the study areas in the headwaters of the Colorado River to provide information about the potential for catastrophic population disturbance in response to variety of wildfire and post-wildfire storm scenarios.

Long-term forest watershed studies in the Southwest: recycled for wildfire and prescribed fire

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary; Gerald J. Gottfried; Peter F. Ffolliott; Boris Poff

2012-01-01

A hydrologic research network was established in Arizona in the 1950s and 1960s called the Arizona Watershed Program (Baker et al. 1999). It consisted of a number of public agencies and private groups interested in obtaining more water for future economic growth while maintaining the State's watersheds in good condition. As part of the Program. paired watershed...

Rebuilding and new housing development after wildfire

Treesearch

Patricia M. Alexandre; Miranda H. Mockrin; Susan I. Stewart; Roger B. Hammer; Volker C. Radeloff

2015-01-01

The number of wildland-urban interface communities affected by wildfire is increasing, and both wildfire suppression and losses are costly. However, little is known about post-wildfire response by homeowners and communities after buildings are lost. Our goal was to characterise rebuilding and new development after wildfires across the conterminous United States. We...

Public Health Impact of Wildfire Emissions: Up-date on the Wildfire Smoke Guide, Public Health Information and Communications Research

EPA Science Inventory

EPA Tools and Resources Webinar: Public Health Impact of Wildfire Smoke Emissions Specific strategies to reduce smoke exposure and the Smoke Sense App As the start of the summer wildfire season approaches, public officials, communities and individuals need up-to-date wildfire smo...

Living with wildfire in Telluride Fire Protection District, Colorado

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Lilia C. Falk; Jamie Gomez; Christopher M. Barth; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Patricia A. Champ

2017-01-01

Residents in the wildland-urban interface can play an important role in reducing wildfires’ negative effects by performing wildfire risk mitigation on their properties. This report offers insight into the wildfire risk mitigation activities and related considerations such as attitudes, experiences, and concern about wildfire, for residents of the Telluride Fire...

Investigating the Impacts of Wildfires on Air Quality in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, E. L.; Iraci, L. T.; Singh, H. B.; Ambrosia, V. G.; Clements, C. B.; Gore, W.; Lareau, N.; Quayle, B.; Ryoo, J. M.; Schroeder, W.; Tanaka, T.

2015-12-01

Wildfire emissions are an important source of a wide range of trace gases and particles that can impact local, regional and global air quality, climate forcing, biogeochemical cycles and human health. In the western US, wildfires dominate over prescribed fires. However, limited sampling of wildfire emissions means western US emission estimates rely largely on data from prescribed fires, which may not be a suitable proxy for wildfire emissions. Further, interactions of wildfire emissions with urban pollution, commonly the case with California wildfires, are complex and poorly understood. The Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) sampled a variety of Californian wildfire plumes during 2013 and 2014. In addition to wildfire plumes, flights sample upwind, background conditions allowing for an assessment of enhancement ratios of trace gas species (carbon dioxide, methane and ozone). This paper presents airborne measurements of multiple trace constituents downwind of a variety of Californian wildfires, with a focus on the exceptionally large Yosemite Rim wildfire during summer 2013. During its intense burning phases, the Rim wildfire was sampled by AJAX on 29 August as well as by the NASA DC-8, as part of its SEAC4RS mission, on 26 and 27 August. AJAX revisited the wildfire on 10 September when it had reached its smoldering phase. The more extensive payload of the DC-8 helped to bridge key measurements that were not available as part of the AJAX payload (e. g. carbon monoxide). The emission ratios (ER), emission factors (EF) and combustion efficiency are compared with previous wildfire studies. Integration of AJAX data with other available datasets, such as SEAC4RS, Lidar data from the California State University Mobile Atmospheric Profiling System (CSU-MAPS), MODIS/VIIRS Fire Radiative Power (FRP) and surface ozone and meteorology measurements is explored to assess the impacts of wildfires on downwind air quality including the densely populated California central valley.

Improved Airborne System for Sensing Wildfires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKeown, Donald; Richardson, Michael

2008-01-01

The Wildfire Airborne Sensing Program (WASP) is engaged in a continuing effort to develop an improved airborne instrumentation system for sensing wildfires. The system could also be used for other aerial-imaging applications, including mapping and military surveillance. Unlike prior airborne fire-detection instrumentation systems, the WASP system would not be based on custom-made multispectral line scanners and associated custom- made complex optomechanical servomechanisms, sensors, readout circuitry, and packaging. Instead, the WASP system would be based on commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment that would include (1) three or four electronic cameras (one for each of three or four wavelength bands) instead of a multispectral line scanner; (2) all associated drive and readout electronics; (3) a camera-pointing gimbal; (4) an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver for measuring the position, velocity, and orientation of the aircraft; and (5) a data-acquisition subsystem. It would be necessary to custom-develop an integrated sensor optical-bench assembly, a sensor-management subsystem, and software. The use of mostly COTS equipment is intended to reduce development time and cost, relative to those of prior systems.

Health and cost impact of air pollution from biomass burning over the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eslami, E.; Sadeghi, B.; Choi, Y.

2017-12-01

Effective assessment of health and cost effects of air pollution associated with wildfire events is critical for supporting sustainable management and policy analysis to reduce environmental damages. Since biomass burning events result in higher ozone, PM2.5, and NOx concentration values in urban regions due to long-range transport, preliminary results indicated that wildfire events cause a considerable increase in incident estimates and costs. This study aims to evaluate the health and cost impact of biomass burning events over the continental United States using combined air quality and health impact modeling. To meet this goal, a comprehensive air quality modeling scenarios containing biomass burning emissions were conducted using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system from 2011 to 2014 with a spatial resolution of 12 km. The modeling period includes fire seasons between April and October over the course of four years. By using modeled pollutants concentrations, the USEPA's GIS-based computer program Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) provides an inclusive figure of health and cost impact caused by changing gaseous and particulate air pollution due to fire events. The basis of BenMAP-CE is the use of a damage-function approach to estimate the health impact of an applied change in air quality by comparing a biomass burning scenario (the one that includes wildfire events) with a baseline scenario (without biomass emissions). This approach considers several factors containing population, exposure to the pollutants, adverse health effects of a particular pollutant, and economic costs. Hence, this study made it capable of showing how biomass burning across U.S. influences people's health in different months, seasons, and regions. Besides, the cost impact of the wildfire events during study periods has also been estimated at both national and regional levels. The results of this study demonstrate the BenMAP-CE can be successfully utilized as a proper tool to obtain health and cost impact of biomass burning events.

Regeneration and invasion of cottonwood riparian forest following wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wonkka, Carissa L.; Twidwell, Dirac; Bielski, Christine H.; Allen, Craig R.; Stambaugh, Michael C.

2018-01-01

Populus deltoides is considered to be a weak resprouter and highly susceptible to wildfire, but few post-wildfire studies have tracked P. deltoides response and resprouting within the Great Plains of North America. Following a wildfire in southwestern Kansas, U.S.A., we surveyed burned and unburned areas of a cottonwood riparian forest along the Cimarron River that included a major understory invader, tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb.). We tested the following hypotheses, which are consistent with the current understanding of P. deltoides response to wildfire in the Great Plains: (1) regeneration of P. deltoides will be low in areas burned by the wildfire; (2) the number of dead P. deltoides individuals will be greater in the wildfire than unburned areas; and (3) tamarisk regeneration will be higher than P. deltoides regeneration in the wildfire areas because tamarisk is considered a stronger resprouter. We found evidence contrary to two of our hypotheses 3 years following the wildfire. (1) P. deltoides regeneration was high following the wildfire, averaging 692 individuals/ha. (2) The number of dead mature cottonwood trees was greater in wildfire plots than in unburned plots. (3) There was more P. deltoides regeneration than tamarisk regeneration following wildfire. These findings, which diverge from the majority of studies examining P. deltoides regeneration in the Great Plains, suggest that differing local environmental and forest stand conditions, coupled with the timing and intensity of the fire, could be important determinants of riparian forest species' responses to wildfire.

Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D; Liang, Shuang; Martin, Katherine L; North, Malcolm P; Koch, George W; Hungate, Bruce A

2016-03-01

Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and any potential carbon benefits from treatment may depend on the occurrence of wildfire. We sought to determine how forest treatments alter the effects of stochastic wildfire events on the forest carbon balance. We modeled three treatments (control, thin-only, and thin and burn) with and without the occurrence of wildfire. We evaluated how two different probabilities of wildfire occurrence, 1% and 2% per year, might alter the carbon balance of treatments. In the absence of wildfire, we found that thinning and burning treatments initially reduced total ecosystem carbon (TEC) and increased net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB). In the presence of wildfire, the thin and burn treatment TEC surpassed that of the control in year 40 at 2%/yr wildfire probability, and in year 51 at 1%/yr wildfire probability. NECB in the presence of wildfire showed a similar response to the no-wildfire scenarios: both thin-only and thin and burn treatments increased the C sink. Treatments increased TEC by reducing both mean wildfire severity and its variability. While the carbon balance of treatments may differ in more productive forest types, the carbon balance benefits from restoring forest structure and fire in southwestern ponderosa pine forests are clear.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States.

PubMed

Balch, Jennifer K; Bradley, Bethany A; Abatzoglou, John T; Nagy, R Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J; Mahood, Adam L

2017-03-14

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal "fire niche" in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km 2 , the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km 2 , primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States

PubMed Central

Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L.

2017-01-01

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards. PMID:28242690

The Human and Physical Determinants of Wildfires and Burnt Areas in Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Smith, Andrew; McAlpine, Clive

2016-09-01

Wildfires are expected to increase in Mediterranean landscapes as a result of climate change and changes in land-use practices. In order to advance our understanding of human and physical factors shaping spatial patterns of wildfires in the region, we compared two independently generated datasets of wildfires for Israel that cover approximately the same study period. We generated a site-based dataset containing the location of 10,879 wildfires (1991-2011), and compared it to a dataset of burnt areas derived from MODIS imagery (2000-2011). We hypothesized that the physical and human factors explaining the spatial distribution of burnt areas derived from remote sensing (mostly large fires, >100 ha) will differ from those explaining site-based wildfires recorded by national agencies (mostly small fires, <10 ha). Small wildfires recorded by forestry agencies were concentrated within planted forests and near built-up areas, whereas the largest wildfires were located in more remote regions, often associated with military training areas and herbaceous vegetation. We conclude that to better understand wildfire dynamics, consolidation of wildfire databases should be achieved, combining field reports and remote sensing. As nearly all wildfires in Mediterranean landscapes are caused by human activities, improving the management of forest areas and raising public awareness to fire risk are key considerations in reducing fire danger.

The Human and Physical Determinants of Wildfires and Burnt Areas in Israel.

PubMed

Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Smith, Andrew; McAlpine, Clive

2016-09-01

Wildfires are expected to increase in Mediterranean landscapes as a result of climate change and changes in land-use practices. In order to advance our understanding of human and physical factors shaping spatial patterns of wildfires in the region, we compared two independently generated datasets of wildfires for Israel that cover approximately the same study period. We generated a site-based dataset containing the location of 10,879 wildfires (1991-2011), and compared it to a dataset of burnt areas derived from MODIS imagery (2000-2011). We hypothesized that the physical and human factors explaining the spatial distribution of burnt areas derived from remote sensing (mostly large fires, >100 ha) will differ from those explaining site-based wildfires recorded by national agencies (mostly small fires, <10 ha). Small wildfires recorded by forestry agencies were concentrated within planted forests and near built-up areas, whereas the largest wildfires were located in more remote regions, often associated with military training areas and herbaceous vegetation. We conclude that to better understand wildfire dynamics, consolidation of wildfire databases should be achieved, combining field reports and remote sensing. As nearly all wildfires in Mediterranean landscapes are caused by human activities, improving the management of forest areas and raising public awareness to fire risk are key considerations in reducing fire danger.

A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011

Treesearch

K. C. Short

2014-01-01

The statistical analysis of wildfire activity is a critical component of national wildfire planning, operations, and research in the United States (US). However, there are multiple federal, state, and local entities with wildfire protection and reporting responsibilities in the US, and no single, unified system of wildfire record keeping exists. To conduct even the...

A spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011 [Discussions

Treesearch

K. C. Short

2013-01-01

The statistical analysis of wildfire activity is a critical component of national wildfire planning, operations, and research in the United States (US). However, there are multiple federal, state, and local entities with wildfire protection and reporting responsibilities in the US, and no single, unified system of wildfire record-keeping exists. To conduct even the...

Defense.gov Special Report: California Wildfires

Science.gov Websites

Fight California Wildfires U.S. Marines and aircraft with 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing and fire crews on Wildfires CDC Emergency Preparedness - Wildfires Current California Fire Information (CA.gov) Official Camp

Enhancement of the 1988 northern U.S. drought due to wildfires

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2005-01-01

Drought provides a favourable environment for the ignition and spread of intense wildfires. This study examines the opposite relationship between the two natural disasters, that is, the role of wildfires in the development of drought. The case of the 1988 northern U.S. wildfires is investigated. Emissions of smoke particles from the wildfires and the resulting optical...

The contemporary scale and context of wildfire in Hawai'i

Treesearch

Clay Trauernicht; Elizabeth Pickett; Christian Giardina; Creighton M. Litton; Susan Cordell; Andrew Beavers

2015-01-01

Wildfire is a major threat to natural resources and native species in Hawai'i, but the frequency and extent of wildfires across the archipelago has not been well quantified. Our objective was to summarize the available wildfire data for Hawai‘i and synthesize the social and ecological dimensions of wildfire drivers, impacts, and management responses. We...

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

Treesearch

Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire...

New Developments in Wildfire Pollution Forecasting at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlovic, Radenko; Chen, Jack; Munoz-Alpizar, Rodrigo; Davignon, Didier; Beaulieu, Paul-Andre; Landry, Hugo; Menard, Sylvain; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael

2017-04-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada's air quality forecast system with near-real-time wildfire emissions, named FireWork, was developed in 2012 and has been run by the Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations division (CMCO) since 2013. In June 2016 this system was upgraded to operational status and wildfire smoke forecasts for North America are now available to the general public. FireWork's ability to model the transport and diffusion of wildfire smoke plumes has proved to be valuable to regional air quality forecasters and emergency first responders. Some of the most challenging issues with wildfire pollution modelling concern the production of wildfire emission estimates and near-source dispersion within the air quality model. As a consequence, FireWork is undergoing constant development. During the massive Fort McMurray wildfire event in western Canada in May 2016, for example, different wildfire emissions processing approaches and wildfire emissions injection and dispersion schemes were tested within the air quality model. Work on various FireWork components will continue in order to deliver a new operational version of the forecasting system for the 2017 wildfire season. Some of the proposed improvements will be shown in this presentation along with current and planned FireWork post-processing products.

Wildfire Decision Making Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M.

2013-12-01

Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.

Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coco Liu, Jia; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yue, Xu; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-12-01

Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046-2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county (n = 561) from wildfire PM2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results. The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires.

The Growing Public Health Impact of Wildfire Smoke Emissions Webinar

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is a brief discussion of wildfire smoke and its health effects along with tools available to provide public health guidance during wildfire events, including the Wildfire Smoke Guide for Public Health Officials

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

44 CFR 204.51 - Application and approval procedures for a fire management assistance grant.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... part 201 that addresses wildfire risks and mitigation measures; or (ii) Incorporate wildfire mitigation... wildfire risk and contains a wildfire mitigation strategy and related mitigation initiatives. [66 FR 57347...

Effects of postfire salvage logging on deadwood-associated beetles.

PubMed

Cobb, T P; Morissette, J L; Jacobs, J M; Koivula, M J; Spence, J R; Langor, D W

2011-02-01

In Canada and the United States pressure to recoup financial costs of wildfire by harvesting burned timber is increasing, despite insufficient understanding of the ecological consequences of postfire salvage logging. We compared the species richness and composition of deadwood-associated beetle assemblages among undisturbed, recently burned, logged, and salvage-logged, boreal, mixed-wood stands. Species richness was lowest in salvage-logged stands, largely due to a negative effect of harvesting on the occurrence of wood- and bark-boring species. In comparison with undisturbed stands, the combination of wildfire and logging in salvage-logged stands had a greater effect on species composition than either disturbance alone. Strong differences in species composition among stand treatments were linked to differences in quantity and quality (e.g., decay stage) of coarse woody debris. We found that the effects of wildfire and logging on deadwood-associated beetles were synergistic, such that the effects of postfire salvage logging could not be predicted reliably on the basis of data on either disturbance alone. Thus, increases in salvage logging of burned forests may have serious negative consequences for deadwood-associated beetles and their ecological functions in early postfire successional forests. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Rill erosion rates in burned forests

Treesearch

Joseph W. Wagenbrenner; Peter R. Robichaud

2011-01-01

Introduction Wildfires often produce large increases in runoff and erosion rates (e.g., Moody and Martin, 2009), and land managers need to predict the frequency and magnitude of postfire erosion to determine the needs for hazard response and possible erosion mitigation to reduce the impacts of increased erosion on public safety and valued resources. The Water Erosion...

North Carolina's Emerging Forest Threats: Management Options for Healthy Forests

Treesearch

Lisa Jennings; Emrys Treasure; Jennifer Moore Myers; Steve McNulty; Sean Brogan; David Jones

2012-01-01

Forest landowners are seeing increased pressure from threats like fire, insects, disease, extreme weather, and drought on their land and resources. The last decade has brought record droughts to North Carolina, increasing wildfires, expanding insect and plant invasions, and more intense hurricane and tornado events. Scientists predict increases in temperature and...

Erosion processes and prediction in NW U.S. forests

Treesearch

W. J. Elliot; P. R. Robichaud; R. B. Foltz

2011-01-01

The greatest amounts of forest erosion usually follow infrequent wildfires. Sediment from these fires is gradually routed through the stream system. The forest road network is usually the second greatest source of sediment, generating sediment annually. Erosion rates associated with timber harvest, biomass removal, and prescribed fire are generally minimal with current...

Canyon grassland vegetation changes following fire in northern Idaho

Treesearch

Corey L. Gucker; Stephen C. Bunting

2011-01-01

Native and nonnative vegetation mosaics are common in western rangelands. If land managers could better predict changes in the abundance of native and nonnative species following disturbances, maintenance of native plant cover and diversity may be improved. In August 2000, during suppression of a wildfire near Lewiston, Idaho, a backing fire burned canyon grassland...

Evaluating the vulnerability of Maine forests to wind damage

Treesearch

Thomas E. Perry; Jeremy S. Wilson

2010-01-01

Numerous factors, some of which cannot be controlled, are continually interacting with the forest resource, introducing risk to management, and making consistent predictable management outcomes uncertain. Included in these factors are threats or hazards such as windstorms and wildfire. Factors influencing the probability (risk) of windthrow or windsnap occurring can be...

Best predictors for postfire mortality of ponderosa pine trees in the Intermountain West

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Joel D. McMillin; James F. Fowler; Kurt K. Allen; Jose F. Negron; Linda L. Wadleigh; John A. Anhold; Ken E. Gibson

2006-01-01

Numerous wildfires in recent years have highlighted managers' needs for reliable tools to predict postfire mortality of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) trees. General applicability of existing mortality models is uncertain, as researchers have used different sets of variables. We quantified tree attributes, crown and bole fire...

Cardiopulmonary toxicity of peat wildfire particulate matter and the predictive utility of precision cut lung slices

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Emissions from a large peat fire in North Carolina were associated with increased hospital admissions for asthma and the rate of heart failure in the exposed population. Peat fires often produce larger amounts of smoke and last longer than forest fires, however few st...

An instrument for rapid, accurate, determination of fuel moisture content

Treesearch

Stephen S. Sackett

1980-01-01

Moisture contents of dead and living fuels are key variables in fire behavior. Accurate, real-time fuel moisture data are required for prescribed burning and wildfire behavior predictions. The convection oven method has become the standard for direct fuel moisture content determination. Efforts to quantify fuel moisture through indirect methods have not been...

Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2016-01-01

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

Why is particulate matter produced by wildfires toxic to lung macrophages?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franzi, Lisa M.; Bratt, Jennifer M.; Williams, Keisha M.

The mechanistic basis of the high toxicity to lung macrophages of coarse PM from the California wildfires of 2008 was examined in cell culture experiments with mouse macrophages. Wildfire PM directly killed macrophages very rapidly in cell culture at relatively low doses. The wildfire coarse PM is about four times more toxic to macrophages on an equal weight basis than the same sized PM collected from normal ambient air (no wildfires) from the same region and season. There was a good correlation between the extent of cytotoxicity and the amount of oxidative stress observed at a given dose of wildfiremore » PM in vitro. Our data implicate NF-{kappa}B signaling in the response of macrophages to wildfire PM, and suggest that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. The relative ratio of toxicity and of expression of biomarkers of oxidant stress between wildfire PM and 'normal' PM collected from ambient air is consistent with our previous results in mice in vivo, also suggesting that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. Our findings from this and earlier studies suggest that the active components of coarse PM from the wildfire are heat-labile organic compounds. While we cannot rule out a minor role for endotoxin in coarse PM preparations from the collected wildfire PM in our observed results both in vitro and in vivo, based on experiments using the inhibitor Polymyxin B most of the oxidant stress and pro-inflammatory activity observed was not due to endotoxin. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Wildfire coarse PM kills macrophages at lower doses than coarse. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Wildfire coarse PM activates the NF-kB pathway at lower doses than ambient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Wildfire coarse PM in vitro and in vivo kill macrophages by oxidative stress.« less

Multiple UAV Cooperation for Wildfire Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zhongjie

Wildfires have been a major factor in the development and management of the world's forest. An accurate assessment of wildfire status is imperative for fire management. This thesis is dedicated to the topic of utilizing multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to cooperatively monitor a large-scale wildfire. This is achieved through wildfire spreading situation estimation based on on-line measurements and wise cooperation strategy to ensure efficiency. First, based on the understanding of the physical characteristics of the wildfire propagation behavior, a wildfire model and a Kalman filter-based method are proposed to estimate the wildfire rate of spread and the fire front contour profile. With the enormous on-line measurements from on-board sensors of UAVs, the proposed method allows a wildfire monitoring mission to benefit from on-line information updating, increased flexibility, and accurate estimation. An independent wildfire simulator is utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Second, based on the filter analysis, wildfire spreading situation and vehicle dynamics, the influence of different cooperation strategies of UAVs to the overall mission performance is studied. The multi-UAV cooperation problem is formulated in a distributed network. A consensus-based method is proposed to help address the problem. The optimal cooperation strategy of UAVs is obtained through mathematical analysis. The derived optimal cooperation strategy is then verified in an independent fire simulation environment to verify its effectiveness.

Wildfire and MAMS data from STORMFEST

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Carlson, G. S.

1993-01-01

Early in 1992, NASA participated in an inter-agency field program called STORMFEST. The STORM-Fronts Experiment Systems Test (STORMFEST) was designed to test various systems critical to the success of STORM 1 in a very focused experiment. The field effort focused on winter storms in order to investigate the structure and evolution of fronts and associated mesoscale phenomena in the central United States. This document describes the data collected from two instruments onboard a NASA ER2 aircraft which was deployed out of Ellington Field in Houston, Texas from February 13 through March 15, 1992, in support of this experiment. The two instruments were the Wildfire (a.k.a. the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer-nadir (MODIS-N) Airborne Simulation (MAS)) and the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS).

Montana Wildfires

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2014-05-15

article title:  Montana Wildfires     View larger image ... in the early summer of 2012 has been on the destructive wildfires in Colorado, as of July 3, 2012, dozens of major wildfires were burning across the western United States, including six in ...

FireScape: A program for whole-mountain fire management in the Sky Island Region

Treesearch

Brooke Gebow; Christopher Stetson; Donald A. Falk; Corrine Dolan

2013-01-01

The Coronado National Forest’s (CNF) FireScape program works to remove barriers to fire playing its natural role on the landscape. A long-term goal is creating landscapes that are able to survive wildfire with biodiversity and key ecological processes intact, especially important in the face of a drier, hotter Southwest. The FireScape team is nurturing multiple efforts...

Assessing the role of federal community assistance programs to develop biomass utilization capacity in the Western United States

Treesearch

Dennis R. Becker; Mark Nechodom; Adam Barnett; Tad Mason; Eini C. Lowell; John Shelly; Dean Graham

2008-01-01

As forest biomass utilization becomes cost effective to harvest, more areas at risk of catastrophic wildfire can be thinned of dense brush and small-diameter trees. In an effort to increase biomass utilization, the USDA Forest Service granted more than $36 million in National Fire Plan-Economic Action Program funds in the Western United States during fiscal years 2001...

The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in southern California

Treesearch

Leslie A. Richardson; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis

2012-01-01

There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles...

Assessing the hydrologic response to wildfires in mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havel, Aaron; Tasdighi, Ali; Arabi, Mazdak

2018-04-01

This study aims to understand the hydrologic responses to wildfires in mountainous regions at various spatial scales. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to evaluate the hydrologic responses of the upper Cache la Poudre Watershed in Colorado to the 2012 High Park and Hewlett wildfire events. A baseline SWAT model was established to simulate the hydrology of the study area between the years 2000 and 2014. A procedure involving land use and curve number updating was implemented to assess the effects of wildfires. Application of the proposed procedure provides the ability to simulate the hydrologic response to wildfires seamlessly through mimicking the dynamic of the changes due to wildfires. The wildfire effects on curve numbers were determined comparing the probability distribution of curve numbers after calibrating the model for pre- and post-wildfire conditions. Daily calibration and testing of the model produced very good results. No-wildfire and wildfire scenarios were created and compared to quantify changes in average annual total runoff volume, water budgets, and full streamflow statistics at different spatial scales. At the watershed scale, wildfire conditions showed little impact on the hydrologic responses. However, a runoff increase up to 75 % was observed between the scenarios in sub-watersheds with high burn intensity. Generally, higher surface runoff and decreased subsurface flow were observed under post-wildfire conditions. Flow duration curves developed for burned sub-watersheds using full streamflow statistics showed that less frequent streamflows become greater in magnitude. A linear regression model was developed to assess the relationship between percent burned area and runoff increase in Cache la Poudre Watershed. A strong (R2 > 0.8) and significant (p < 0.001) positive correlation was determined between runoff increase and percentage of burned area upstream. This study showed that the effects of wildfires on hydrology of a watershed are scale-dependent. Also, using full streamflow statistics through application of flow duration curves revealed that the wildfires had a higher effect on peak flows, which may increase the risk of flash floods in post-wildfire conditions.

Knowledge management: an application to wildfire prevention planning

Treesearch

Daniel L Schmoldt

1989-01-01

Residential encroachment into wildland areas places an additional burden on fire management activities. Prevention programs, fuel management efforts, and suppression strategies, previously employed in wildland areas, require modification for protection of increased values at risk in this interface area. Knowledge-based computer systems are being investigated as...

Quantifying Future PM2.5 and Associated Health Effects Due to Changes in US Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, J. R.; Val Martin, M.; Ford, B.; Zelasky, S.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Fischer, E. V.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from landscape fires has been shown to adversely affect visibility, air quality and and health across the US. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and human activities. Predictions based on climate scenarios and future land cover projections that consider socioeconomic development suggest that fire activity will rise dramatically over the next decades. As PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality and morbidity rates, increases in emissions from landscape fires may alter the health burden on the US population. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences for PM2.5 and health over the US from 2000 to 2100. We employ the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the IPCC RCP projections. Within CESM, we use a process-based global fire parameterization to project future climate-driven and human-caused fire emissions. From these simulations, we determine the current and future impact on PM2.5 concentrations and visibility for different regions of the US, and we also calculate the mortality attributable to PM2.5 and wildfire-specific PM2.5 using existing concentration-response functions. Results show that although total PM2.5 concentrations in the US are projected to be similar in 2100 as in 2000, the dominant source of PM2.5 will change. Under the RCP8.5 climate projection and SSP3 population projection, non-fire emissions (mostly anthropogenic) are projected to decrease, but PM2.5 from CONUS and non-US wildfires is projected to increase from approximately 20% of all PM2.5 in 2000 to 80% of all PM2.5 in 2100. Furthermore, although the US population is expected to decline between 2000 and 2100, the mortality attributable to wildfire smoke is expected to increase from 25,000 deaths per year in 2000 to 75,000 deaths per year in 2100.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos

2016-03-01

We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also provides mobile access to the web-based version of the system.

Wildfires and post-fire erosion risk in a coastal area under severe anthropic pressure associated with the touristic fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canu, Annalisa; Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Valeriano Pintus, Gian; Ferrara, Roberto; Duce, Pierpaolo

2017-04-01

In the last decades a rapid and intense development of the tourism industry led to an increasing of anthropic pressure on several coastal areas of Sardinia. This fact not only modified the coastal aesthetics, but has also generated an increase of risk for the environment. This phenomenon affected also the ancient structure of the landscape with a negative impact mainly caused by the following factors: land abandonment, wildfire occurrence, post-fire erosion, urbanization. These regional changes can be analyzed in detail by considering the geo-diachronic dynamics. The main objectives of this work were i) to perform a diachronic analysis of land use and land cover dynamics, ii) to analyse the recent dynamics of wildfires, and iii) to predict the soil erosion risk in relation to land use change occurred between the 1950s and the 2000s. The study was realized in a coastal area located in North-East Sardinia where the geo-historical processes were summarized and organized in a geographic information system that has been employed to examine the landscape variations at three different time steps: 1954, 1977 and 2000. In addition, different scenarios of wildfire propagation were simulated by FlamMap in order to estimate the spatial pattern of fire danger factors in the study area. Afterwards, maps of post-fire soil erosion were produced to identify the temporal and spatial variations of the erosion risk. The results show how the changes in land use and the significant and rapid increase of the residential areas affect the risk of both wildfires and post-fire soil erosion. The study reveals the capabilities of this type of approach and can be used by management agencies and policy makers e in sustainable landscape management planning. This approach can be extended to other regions of the Mediterranean basin characterized by complex interactions among landscape and anthropic factors affecting the environmental risk.

Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

PubMed

Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

2013-06-01

Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Non-Accidental Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke

PubMed Central

Youssouf, Hassani; Liousse, Catherine; Roblou, Laurent; Assamoi, Eric-Michel; Salonen, Raimo O.; Maesano, Cara; Banerjee, Soutrik; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella

2014-01-01

Wildfires take a heavy toll on human health worldwide. Climate change may increase the risk of wildfire frequency. Therefore, in view of adapted preventive actions, there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. We conducted a systematic review of non-accidental health impacts of wildfire and incorporated lessons learned from recent experiences. Based on the literature, various studies have established the relationship between one of the major components of wildfire, particulate matter (particles with diameter less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5)) and cardiorespiratory symptoms in terms of Emergency Rooms visits and hospital admissions. Associations between wildfire emissions and various subclinical effects have also been established. However, few relationships between wildfire emissions and mortality have been observed. Certain segments of the population may be particularly vulnerable to smoke-related health risks. Among them, people with pre-existing cardiopulmonary conditions, the elderly, smokers and, for professional reasons, firefighters. Potential action mechanisms have been highlighted. Overall, more research is needed to better understand health impact of wildfire exposure. PMID:25405597

Non-accidental health impacts of wildfire smoke.

PubMed

Youssouf, Hassani; Liousse, Catherine; Roblou, Laurent; Assamoi, Eric-Michel; Salonen, Raimo O; Maesano, Cara; Banerjee, Soutrik; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella

2014-11-14

Wildfires take a heavy toll on human health worldwide. Climate change may increase the risk of wildfire frequency. Therefore, in view of adapted preventive actions, there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. We conducted a systematic review of non-accidental health impacts of wildfire and incorporated lessons learned from recent experiences. Based on the literature, various studies have established the relationship between one of the major components of wildfire, particulate matter (particles with diameter less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5)) and cardiorespiratory symptoms in terms of Emergency Rooms visits and hospital admissions. Associations between wildfire emissions and various subclinical effects have also been established. However, few relationships between wildfire emissions and mortality have been observed. Certain segments of the population may be particularly vulnerable to smoke-related health risks. Among them, people with pre-existing cardiopulmonary conditions, the elderly, smokers and, for professional reasons, firefighters. Potential action mechanisms have been highlighted. Overall, more research is needed to better understand health impact of wildfire exposure.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought–fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought–fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought–fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

PubMed

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evaluation of a CFD-based Wind Model Optimized for ABL Flows: Comparisons with Observations from a Tall Isolated Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Butler, B.

2015-12-01

Near-surface wind predictions are important for a number of applications, including transport and dispersion, wind energy forecasting, and wildfire behavior. Researchers and forecasters would benefit from a wind model that could be readily applied to complex terrain for use in these disciplines. Unfortunately, near-surface winds in complex terrain are not handled well by traditional modeling approaches. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly being applied to simulate atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows, especially in wind energy applications; however, the standard functionality provided in commercial CFD models is not suitable for ABL flows. Appropriate CFD modeling in the ABL requires modification of empirically-derived wall function parameters and boundary conditions to avoid erroneous streamwise gradients due to inconsistences between inlet profiles and specified boundary conditions. This work presents a new version of a wind model, WindNinja, developed for wildfire applications in complex terrain. The new version offers two options for flow simulations: 1) the native, fast-running mass-consistent method available in previous versions and 2) a CFD approach based on the OpenFOAM toolbox and optimized for ABL flows. The model is described and evaluations of predictions with surface wind data collected from a recent field campaign at a tall isolated mountain are presented. CFD models have typically been evaluated with data collected from relatively simple terrain (e.g., low-elevation hills such as Askervein and Bolund) compared to the highly rugged terrain found in many regions, such as the western U.S. Here we provide one of the first evaluations of a CFD model over real terrain with ruggedness approaching that of landscapes characteristic of the western U.S. and other regions prone to wildfire. A comparison of predictions from the native mass-consistent method and the new CFD method is provided.

An Overview of Recent Geostationary Fire Monitoring Activities and Applications in the Western Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McRae, D. J.; Conard, S. G.; Ivanova, G. A.; Sukhinin, A. I.; Hao, W. M.; Koutzenogii, K. P.; Prins, E. M.; Schmidt, C. C.; Feltz, J. M.

2002-05-01

Over the past twenty years the international scientific research and environmental monitoring communities have recognized the vital role environmental satellites can play in detecting and monitoring active fires both regionally and around the globe for hazards applications and to better understand the extent and impact of biomass burning on the global environment. Both groups have stressed the importance of utilizing operational satellites to produce routine fire products and to ensure long-term stable records of fire activity for applications such as land-use/land cover change analyses and global climate change research. The current NOAA GOES system provides the unique opportunity to detect fires throughout the Western Hemisphere every half-hour from a series of nearly identical satellites for a period of 15+ years. This presentation will provide an overview of the GOES biomass burning monitoring program at UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) with an emphasis on recent applications of the new GOES Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA). For the past 8 years, CIMSS has utilized the GOES-8 imager to monitor biomass burning trends in South America. Since September 2000, CIMSS has been producing half-hourly fire products in real-time for most of the Western Hemisphere. The WF_ABBA half-hourly fire product is providing new insights into diurnal, spatial, seasonal and interannual fire dynamics in North, Central, and South America. In North America these products are utilized to detect and monitor wildfires in northerly and remote locations. In South America the diurnal GOES fire product is being used as an indicator of land-use and land-cover change and carbon dynamics along the borders between Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. The Navy is assimilating the Wildfire ABBA fire product into the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) to analyze and predict aerosol loading and transport as part of the NASA-ESE Fire Locating And Mapping of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project. Furthermore, the dissemination and use of geostationary imagery and derived fire products in the Western Hemisphere provide a glimpse of future global geostationary fire monitoring capabilities. Global geostationary active fire monitoring will be possible with the launch of the European METEOSAT (METEOrological SATellite) Second Generation (MSG) and the replacement Japanese Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT-1R) over the next two years. This global network of geostationary satellites will complement the U.S. and international suite of environmental polar-orbiting satellites.

Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2008-01-01

Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of southern California. This study demonstrates that logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of debris flows occurring in recently burned landscapes.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models.

PubMed

Vieira, D C S; Serpa, D; Nunes, J P C; Prats, S A; Neves, R; Keizer, J J

2018-08-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m 2 ) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m 2 ). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and for testing different land management scenarios. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Classifying Wildfire Causes in the USDA Forest Service: Problems and Alternatives

Treesearch

Linda R. Donoghue

1982-01-01

Discusses problems associated with fire-cause data on USDA Forest Service wildfire reports, traces the historical development of wildfire-cause categories, and presents the pros and cons of retaining current wildfire-cause reporting systems or adopting new systems.

Wildfire Perception and Community Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Jason S.; Matarrita-Cascante, David; Stedman, Richard C.; Luloff, A. E.

2010-01-01

Given increasing political and financial commitments to wildfire preparedness, risk policy demands that risk identification, assessment, and mitigation activities are balanced among diverse resident groups. Essential for this is the understanding of residents' perceptions of wildfire risks. This study compares wildfire-risk perceptions of…

Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes

Treesearch

Christine S. Olsen; Jeffrey D. Kline; Alan A. Ager; Keith A. Olsen; Karen C. Short

2017-01-01

Expansion of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and the increasing size and number of wildfires has policy-makers and wildfire managers seeking ways to reduce wildfire risk in communities located near fire-prone forests. It is widely acknowledged that homeowners can reduce their exposure to wildfire risk by using nonflammable building materials and reducing tree...

Investigation of the decline in reported smoking-caused wildfires in the USA from 2000 to 2011

Treesearch

David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Douglas S. Thomas

2014-01-01

The number of smoking-caused wildfires has been falling nationwide. In national forests in 2011, smoking-caused wildfires represented only 10% of their 1980 level. No other cause of wildfire has experienced this level of decline. For 12 states, we evaluate the rate of smoking-caused wildfires and find it is a function of weather, other ignitions, the number of adult...

Is timber insurable? A study of wildfire Risks in the U.S. forest sector using spatio-temporal models.

Treesearch

Xuan Chen; Barry K. Goodwin; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2014-01-01

In the U.S. forest products industry, wildfire is one of the leading causes of damage and economic losses. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied, new literature is emerging on broad-scale (e.g., county-level) wildfire risks. Our paper studies wildfire risks using crucial informational vari­ ables across both spatio units and time periods....

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring.

PubMed

Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2016-06-05

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216510

Israel wildfires: future trends, impacts and mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittenberg, Lea

2017-04-01

Forest fires in the Euro-Mediterranean region burn about 450,000 ha each year. In Israel, the frequency and extent of wildfires have been steadily increasing over the past decades, culminating in several large and costly fires in 2010, 2012 and 2016. The extensive development of forest areas since the 1950's and the accumulation of fuel in the forests, has led to increased occurrences of high intensity fires. Land-use changes and human population growth are the most prevailing and common determinant of wildfire occurrence and impacts. Climate extremes, possibly already a sign of regional climate change, are another frequent determinant of increasing wildfire risk. Therefore, the combination of extreme dry spells, high fuel loads and increased anthropogenic pressure on the open spaces result in an overall amplified wildfire risk. These fires not only cause loss of life and damage to properties but also carry serious environmental repercussions. Combustion of standing vegetation and the leaf litter leave the soil bare and vulnerable to runoff and erosion, thereby increasing risks of flooding. Today, all of Israel's open spaces, forests, natural parks, major metropolitan centers, towns and villages are embedded within the wildland urban interface (WUI). Typically, wildfires near or in the WUI occur on uplands and runoff generated from the burned area poses flooding risks in urban and agricultural zones located downstream. Post-fire management aims at reducing associated hazards as collapsing trees and erosion risk. Often the time interval between a major fire and the definition of priority sites is in the order of days-to-weeks since administrative procedures, financial estimates and implementation of post-fire salvage logging operations require time. Defining the magnitude of the burn scar and estimating its potential impact on runoff and erosion must therefore be done quickly. A post-fire burn severity, runoff and erosion model is a useful tool in estimating potential risks and management strategic. Moreover, national agencies and local authorities must decide on a range of post-fire measures to mitigate risks quickly since most large fires occur late in summer shortly before the winter season. Possible climate changes, socio-economic trends, and intense land use pressures are contributing factors in a national challenge to deal with forest fires along the WUI. However, in order to support integrated fire preparedness, response, management and recovery at the national, regional and local scales, stronger research and planning effort are required. This includes long-term monitoring programs and a systematic, standardized data acquisition scheme, compiling fire history, landscape-fire spread, mitigation and assessment of the immediate fire effects, land use changes and weather data. Knowledge of both short and long-term impacts of wildfire is essential for effective risk assessment, policy formulation and wildfire management.

Canadian Operational Air Quality Forecasting Systems: Status, Recent Progress, and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlovic, Radenko; Davignon, Didier; Ménard, Sylvain; Munoz-Alpizar, Rodrigo; Landry, Hugo; Beaulieu, Paul-André; Gilbert, Samuel; Moran, Michael; Chen, Jack

2017-04-01

ECCC's Canadian Meteorological Centre Operations (CMCO) division runs a number of operational air quality (AQ)-related systems that revolve around the Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS). The RAQDPS generates 48-hour AQ forecasts and outputs hourly concentration fields of O3, PM2.5, NO2, and other pollutants twice daily on a North-American domain with 10-km horizontal grid spacing and 80 vertical levels. A closely related AQ forecast system with near-real-time wildfire emissions, known as FireWork, has been run by CMCO during the Canadian wildfire season (April to October) since 2014. This system became operational in June 2016. The CMCO`s operational AQ forecast systems also benefit from several support systems, such as a statistical post-processing model called UMOS-AQ that is applied to enhance forecast reliability at point locations with AQ monitors. The Regional Deterministic Air Quality Analysis (RDAQA) system has also been connected to the RAQDPS since February 2013, and hourly surface objective analyses are now available for O3, PM2.5, NO2, PM10, SO2 and, indirectly, the Canadian Air Quality Health Index. As of June 2015, another version of the RDAQA has been connected to FireWork (RDAQA-FW). For verification purposes, CMCO developed a third support system called Verification for Air QUality Models (VAQUM), which has a geospatial relational database core and which enables continuous monitoring of the AQ forecast systems' performance. Urban environments are particularly subject to AQ pollution. In order to improve the services offered, ECCC has recently been investing efforts to develop a high resolution air quality prediction capability for urban areas in Canada. In this presentation, a comprehensive description of the ECCC AQ systems will be provided, along with a discussion on AQ systems performance. Recent improvements, current challenges, and future directions of the Canadian operational AQ program will also be discussed.

Atlas of climatic controls of wildfire in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Bartlein, P.J.; Holman, J.O.

2006-01-01

Wildfire behavior depends on several factors including ecologic characteristics, near-term and antecedent climatic conditions,fuel availability and moisture level, weather, and sources of ignition (lightning or human). The variability and interplay of these factors over many spatial and temporal scales present an ongoing challenge to our ability to forecast a given wildfire season. Here we focus on one aspect of wildfire in the western US through a retrospective analysis of wildfire (starts and area burned) and climate over monthly time scales. We consider prefire conditions up to a year preceding fire outbreaks. For our analysis, we used daily and monthly wildfire records and a combination of observed and model-simulated atmospheric and surface climate data. The focus of this report is on monthly wildfire and climate for the period 1980-2000. Although a longer fire record is desirable, the 21-year record is the longest currently available and it is sufficient for the purpose of a first-order regional analysis. We present the main results in the form of a wildfire-climate atlas for 8 subregions of the West that can be used by resource managers to assess current wildfire conditions relative to high, normal, and low fire years in the historical record. Our results clearly demonstrate the link between wildfire conditions and a small set of climatic variables, and our methodology is a framework for providing near-real-time assessments of current wildfire conditions in the West.

Soil erosion influenced by wildfire and pre-fire plantation method in NW Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández Filgueira, Cristina; Vega Hidalgo, José Antonio; Fonturbel Lliteras, Teresa

2017-04-01

Erosion is a major concern in areas affected by high-severity wildfires. Soil characteristics associated with past forestry management can play a significant role in post-wildfire soil loss through increments in soil erodibility or as a result of sediment exhaustion. In areas such as NW Spain where there is a long history of intensive land use, this factor may be critical for explaining soil loss after wildfire. The objective of this study was to determine whether plantation method can significantly influence soil loss in the first year after wildfire in a P. sylvestris plantation affected wildfire in NW Spain. For these purpose, we measured hillslope-scale sediment production rates and site characteristics during the first year after wildfire in 30 plots. Treatments consisted in pre-fire ploughing+ wildfire, plantation holes+ wildfire and no preparation method+wildfire. Soil burn severity was high as average. During the first year following fire, soil losses varied from 0.9 t/ha in the ploughed areas to 4.6 t/ha in the plantation wholes. The treatment with no terrain preparation yielded 3.0 t/ha during the same period of time. These results suggest that pre-fire ploughed areas are not a priority for soil erosion risk mitigation after wildfire. The study was funded by the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Spain (INIA) through project RTA2014-00011-C06-02, cofunded by FEDER and the Plan de Mejora e Innovación Forestal de Galicia (2010-2020) and INDITEX.

Does historical wildfire activity alter metal fluxes to northern lakes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelletier, N.; Chetelat, J.; Vermaire, J. C.; Palmer, M.; Black, J.; Pellisey, J.; Tracz, B.; van der Wielen, S.

2017-12-01

Current drought conditions in northwestern Canada are conducive to more frequent and severe wildfires that may mobilize mercury and other metals accumulated in soil and biomass. There is evidence that wildfires can remobilize and transport mercury within and outside catchments by atmospheric volatilization, particulate emissions and catchment soil erosion. However, the effect of fires on mercury fluxes to nearby lake sediments remains unclear. In this study, we use a combination of 10 dated lake sediment cores and four nearby ombrotrophic peatland cores to investigate the effects of wildfires on mercury fluxes to lake sediments. Lakes varying in catchment size and distance from recent fire events were sampled. Mercury concentrations in the environmental archives were measured, and macroscopic charcoal particles (>100 um) were counted at high resolution in the sediments to observe the co-variation of the local fire history and mercury fluxes. Mercury flux recorded in ombrotrophic peat cores provided an estimate of the historical atmospheric mercury flux from local and regional atmospheric deposition. The mercury flux recorded in lake sediments corresponds to the sum of direct atmospheric deposition and catchment transport. In combination, these archives will allow for the partitioning of mercury loading attributable to catchment transport from direct atmospheric deposition. After correcting the fluxes for particle focusing and terragenic elements input, flux from different lakes will be compared based on their catchment size and their temporal and spatial proximity known fire events. Altogether, our preliminary results using these paleolimnological methods will provide new insights on mercury transport processes that are predicted to become more important under a changing climate.

How do Watershed Characteristics and Precipitation Influence Post-Wildfire Valley Sediment Storage and Delivery Over Time?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brogan, D. J.; Nelson, P. A.; MacDonald, L. H.

2016-12-01

Considerable advances have been made in understanding post-wildfire runoff, erosion, and mass wasting at the hillslope and small watershed scale, but the larger-scale effects on flooding, water quality, and sedimentation are often the most significant impacts. The problem is that we have virtually no watershed-specific tools to quantify the proportion of eroded sediment that is stored or delivered from watersheds larger than about 2-5 km2. In this study we are quantifying how channel and valley bottom characteristics affect post-wildfire sediment storage and delivery. Our research is based on intensive monitoring of sediment storage over time in two 15 km2 watersheds (Skin Gulch and Hill Gulch) burned in the 2012 High Park Fire using repeated cross section and longitudinal surveys from fall 2012 through summer 2016, five airborne laser scanning (ALS) datasets from fall 2012 through summer 2015, and both radar and ground-based precipitation measurements. We have computed changes in sediment storage by differencing successive cross sections, and computed spatially explicit changes in successive ALS point clouds using the multiscale model to model cloud comparison (M3C2) algorithm. These channel changes are being related to potential morphometric controls, including valley width, valley slope, confinement, contributing area, valley expansion or contraction, topographic curvature (planform and profile), and estimated sediment inputs. We hypothesize that maximum rainfall intensity and lateral confinement will be the primary independent variables that describe observed patterns of erosion and deposition, and that the results can help predict post-wildfire sediment delivery and identify high priority areas for restoration.

The Effect of Prescribed Burns and Wildfire on Vegetation in Bastrop State Park, TX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justice, C. J.

2014-12-01

In 2011, central Texas had its worst drought since the 1950's. This, in conjunction with the strong winds produced by Tropical Storm Lee created conditions that made possible the Bastrop County Complex Fire in September 2011. These record-breaking wildfires burned over 95% of the 6,565-acre Bastrop State Park (BSP). Since 2003, BSP had been using prescribed burns as a management practice to reduce fuel load and prevent high severity wildfires. Although these prescribed fires did not prevent the 2011 wildfires they may have mitigated their effects. This study considered the effect of prescribed burn history and wildfire burn severity on vegetation recovery in BSP since the 2011 wildfire. The hypotheses of this study are that prescribed burn history and wildfire burn severity separately and jointly have affected post wildfire vegetation. To test these hypotheses, data were collected in 2013 from 46 plots across BSP using the Fire Effects Monitoring and Inventory (FIREMON) protocol to determine herbaceous plant density, shrub density, overstory density, and midstory tree density. Data were analyzed using analyses of variance (ANOVA) to determine the effects of prescribed fire and wildfire severity on these vegetation measurements. It was found that more severely burned plots had more herbaceous plants, fewer midstory trees, and lower shrub densities than less severely burned plots. Contrary to an initial hypotheses, there were few relationships between prescribed burn history and wildfire effects. The only significant effect detected for prescribed burning was the positive effect of prescribed fire on midstory tree density, but only for plots that were not severely burned in the wildfire. In this system, burn severity had a greater effect on post-wildfire vegetation than prescribed burns.

Why is particulate matter produced by wildfires toxic to lung macrophages?

PubMed

Franzi, Lisa M; Bratt, Jennifer M; Williams, Keisha M; Last, Jerold A

2011-12-01

The mechanistic basis of the high toxicity to lung macrophages of coarse PM from the California wildfires of 2008 was examined in cell culture experiments with mouse macrophages. Wildfire PM directly killed macrophages very rapidly in cell culture at relatively low doses. The wildfire coarse PM is about four times more toxic to macrophages on an equal weight basis than the same sized PM collected from normal ambient air (no wildfires) from the same region and season. There was a good correlation between the extent of cytotoxicity and the amount of oxidative stress observed at a given dose of wildfire PM in vitro. Our data implicate NF-κB signaling in the response of macrophages to wildfire PM, and suggest that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. The relative ratio of toxicity and of expression of biomarkers of oxidant stress between wildfire PM and "normal" PM collected from ambient air is consistent with our previous results in mice in vivo, also suggesting that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. Our findings from this and earlier studies suggest that the active components of coarse PM from the wildfire are heat-labile organic compounds. While we cannot rule out a minor role for endotoxin in coarse PM preparations from the collected wildfire PM in our observed results both in vitro and in vivo, based on experiments using the inhibitor Polymyxin B most of the oxidant stress and pro-inflammatory activity observed was not due to endotoxin. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Why is Particulate Matter Produced by Wildfires Toxic To Lung Macrophages?

PubMed Central

Franzi, Lisa M.; Bratt, Jennifer M.; Williams, Keisha M.; Last, Jerold A.

2011-01-01

The mechanistic basis of the high toxicity to lung macrophages of coarse PM from the California wildfires of 2008 was examined in cell culture experiments with mouse macrophages. Wildfire PM directly killed macrophages very rapidly in cell culture at relatively low doses. The wildfire coarse PM are about four times more toxic to macrophages on an equal weight basis than the same sized PM collected from normal ambient air (no wildfires) from the same region and season. There was a good correlation between the extent of cytotoxicity and the amount of oxidative stress observed at a given dose of wildfire PM in vitro. Our data implicate NF-kB signaling in the response of macrophages to wildfire PM, and suggest that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. The relative ratio of toxicity and of expression of biomarkers of oxidant stress between wildfire PM and “normal” PM collected from ambient air is consistent with our previous results in mice in vivo, also suggesting that most, if not all, of the cytotoxicity of wildfire PM to lung macrophages is the result of oxidative stress. Our findings from this and earlier studies suggest that the active components of coarse PM from the wildfire are heat-labile organic compounds. While we can not rule out a minor role for endotoxin in coarse PM preparations from the collected wildfire PM in our observed results both in vitro and in vivo, based on experiments using the inhibitor Polymyxin B most of the oxidant stress and pro-inflammatory activity observed was not due to endotoxin. PMID:21945489

The economic dimension of wildland fires

Treesearch

Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2013-01-01

The economic relevance of wildland fire management and protection programs is ever growing, particularly considering mounting wildfire costs and losses globally, and the justifications required for budget allocations to management and protection of forest ecosystems. However, there are major difficulties in grappling with the problem of rapidly increasing wildland fire...

The Changing Roles Professional Development Program

Treesearch

A. Hermansen-Baez; N. Wulff

2010-01-01

As populations and urbanization expand in the Southern United States, human influences on forests and other natural areas are increasing. As a result, natural resource professionals are faced with complex challenges, such as managing smaller forest parcels for multiple benefits, and wildfire prevention and management in the wildland-urban interface (areas where urban...

The Application of a WEPP Technology to a Complex Watershed Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, William; Miller, Ina Sue; Dobre, Mariana

2017-04-01

Forest restoration activities are essential in many forest stands, where previous management and fire suppression has resulted in stands with high density, diseased trees and excessive fuel loads. Trying to balance the watershed impacts of restoration activities such as thinning, selective harvesting, and prescribed fire against the significant impact of wildfire is challenging. The process is further aggravated by the necessity of a road network if management activities include timber removal. We propose to present an approach to a watershed analysis for a 3400-ha of fuel reduction project within an 18,0000-ha sensitive watershed in the Nez Perce National Forest in Northern Idaho, USA. The FlamMap fire spread model was first used to predict the distribution of potential fire severity on the landscape for the current fuel load, and for a landscape that had been treated by thinning and/or prescribed fire. FlamMap predicts the flame length by 30-m pixel as a function of fuel load and water content, wind speed, and slope steepness and aspect. The flame length distribution was then classified so that the distribution of burn severity (unburned, low, moderate and high severity) was similar to the distributions observed on recent wildfires in the Forest. The flame length classes determined for the current fuel loads were also used for the treated condition flame lengths, where predominantly unburned or low severity fire severities were predicted. The burn severity maps were uploaded to a web site that was developed to provide soil and management files reflecting burn severity and soil texture, formatted for the Geospatial interface to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP). The study area was divided into 40 sub watersheds under 2.5 km2 each for GeoWEPP analysis. GeoWEPP was run for an undisturbed forest; for the burn severity following wildfire for the current and treated fuel loads; for prescribed fire, either broadcast or jack pot burn; and for thinning either by tractor or by skyline logging. The GeoWEPP erosion estimates by hillslope polygon were merged with the proposed treatment polygons to produce maps of erosion for each condition for each treatment polygon. Road network erosion was estimated using a new online GIS tool to estimate road segment length and steepness, and linking those topographic values to the WEPP model for erosion prediction by road segment. The results were summarized and compared to earlier estimates of sediment delivery using a locally-developed cumulative watershed effects analysis. The results were similar from both tools, in spite of using very different erosion estimation methods, and similar to regional observations of forest watershed sediment delivery ( 12.5 Mg/sq km). The study found that the erosion risk from wildfire was 5 times greater than sediment generated by forest management, justifying the proposed restoration activities to reduce fire risk. Sediment generated from the road network, however, was unacceptably high suggesting that methods improve road erosion prediction and/or to reduce road erosion are warranted.

Muted responses of streamflow and suspended sediment flux in a wildfire-affected watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owens, P. N.; Giles, T. R.; Petticrew, E. L.; Leggat, M. S.; Moore, R. D.; Eaton, B. C.

2013-11-01

In August 2003 a severe wildfire burnt 62% of Fishtrap Creek, a 158 km2 watershed in central British Columbia, Canada. Streamflows were obtained for the period 1980-2010 and suspended sediment fluxes were determined for the period 2004-2010 for Fishtrap Creek and these were compared to data for nearby Jamieson Creek, which was not affected by the wildfire. Peak streamflows in Fishtrap Creek after the wildfire were not significantly higher than before the wildfire, although total annual runoff had increased. Perhaps the most important change in streamflows following the wildfire was that peak flows associated with the annual freshet occurred earlier in the year (by ca. 2 weeks). Following the wildfire, monthly total suspended sediment fluxes peaked in April in Fishtrap Creek and May in Jamieson Creek, which reflects the change in timing of peak streamflows in Fishtrap. Specific suspended sediment yields were low in the first year following the wildfire (2004), and peak values for the 2004-2010 monitoring period occurred in 2006. Average specific suspended sediment yields over the monitoring period were similar for both watersheds at 2.8 and 2.9 t km- 2 year- 1 for Fishtrap and Jamieson watersheds, respectively. The muted responses of streamflows and suspended sediment fluxes following this severe wildfire are due to the lack of winter precipitation and the low intensities of summer rainfall events in the first year following the wildfire. Greater winter precipitation and associated snowmelt in subsequent years coincided with vegetation recovery. The major changes in the wildfire-affected watershed were increased bank erosion and channel migration due to a loss of root strength and cohesion, which occurred 3-5 years after the fire. This work demonstrates that the hydrological and geomorphological responses of watersheds to wildfires are a function of the severity of the wildfire and the timing and nature of driving forces (i.e. rainfall intensity, winter precipitation and snowmelt) during the progression of vegetation recovery.

Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2005-01-01

In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

Criterion 6, indicator 34 : value of capital investment and annual expenditure in forest management, wood and non-wood product industries, forest-based environmental services, recreation, and tourism

Treesearch

Ken Skog; John Bergstrom; Elizabeth Hill; Ken Cordell

2010-01-01

USDA Forest Service capital investment in management infrastructure was $501 and $390 million (2005$) for 2005 and 2007, respectively. National forest programs expenditures decreased from $3.0 to $2.7 billion between 2004 and 2007 and wildfire management expenditures increased from $1.7 to $2.1 billion (2005$). State forestry program expenditures for 1998, 2002, and...

Rehabilitation and Cheatgrass Suppression Following Great Basin Wildfires

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The occurrence of wildfires in Great Basin environments has become an annual event. The introduction and subsequent invasion of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) plays a very large role in the frequency and size of these wildfires. With each passing wildfire season, more and more habitats are converted...

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

Treesearch

Alicia Azpeleta Tarancon; Peter Z. Fule; Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Andrew Sanchez Meador; Barbara Strom

2014-01-01

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned...

Erosion processes and prediction with WEPP technology in forests in the Northwestern U.S.

Treesearch

W. J. Elliot

2013-01-01

In the northwestern U.S., the greatest amounts of forest erosion usually follow infrequent wildfires. Sediment from these fires is gradually routed through the stream system. The forest road network is usually the second greatest source of sediment, generating sediment annually. Erosion rates associated with timber harvest, biomass removal, and prescribed fire are...

Tree injury and mortality in fires: developing process-based models

Treesearch

Bret W. Butler; Matthew B. Dickinson

2010-01-01

Wildland fire managers are often required to predict tree injury and mortality when planning a prescribed burn or when considering wildfire management options; and, currently, statistical models based on post-fire observations are the only tools available for this purpose. Implicit in the derivation of statistical models is the assumption that they are strictly...

Fanning the flames: climate change stacks odds against fire suppression.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

There is little question that global warming would increase the risk of wildfires by drying out vegetation and stirring the winds that spread fire. Until recently, however, land managers were unable to formulate appropriate responses because the spatial scales of predictions were far too coarse. Current research being done at the PNW Research Station in Portland,...

Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume I for fire managers

Treesearch

Paul A. Werth; Brian E. Potter; Craig B. Clements; Mark A. Finney; Scott L. Goodrick; Martin E. Alexander; Miguel G. Cruz; Jason A. Forthofer; Sara S. McAllister

2011-01-01

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group definition of extreme fire behavior (EFB) indicates a level of fire behavior characteristics that ordinarily precludes methods of direct control action. One or more of the following is usually involved: high rate of spread, prolific crowning/spotting, presence of fire whirls, and strong convection column. Predictability is...

Fire severity filters regeneration traits to shape community assembly in Alaska's boreal forest

Treesearch

Teresa N. Hollingsworth; Jill F. Johnstone; Emily L. Bernhardt; F. Stuart Chapin

2013-01-01

Disturbance can both initiate and shape patterns of secondary succession by affecting processes of community assembly. Thus, understanding assembly rules is a key element of predicting ecological responses to changing disturbance regimes. We measured the composition and trait characteristics of plant communities early after widespread wildfires in Alaska to assess how...

Delayed conifer tree mortality following fire in California

Treesearch

Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

2007-01-01

Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5,246 trees from five wildfires in California that occurred between 1999 and 2002. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality were developed for incense-cedar, Jeffrey pine, ponderosa pine, red fir and white fir. Two-year post-fire preliminary models were developed for incense-cedar,...

Evaluating crown fire rate of spread predictions from physics-based models

Treesearch

C. M. Hoffman; J. Ziegler; J. Canfield; R. R. Linn; W. Mell; C. H. Sieg; F. Pimont

2015-01-01

Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate...

Use of the 1990 census to defire wildland urban interface problems

Treesearch

James B. Davis

1991-01-01

Predicting the movement of people into rural wildlands previously has been limited to studies of population and housing growth in counties or other large geographical areas. In these studies, the areas of high fire danger that contain dispersed rural housing cannot be distinguished from the areas less vulnerable to wildfire (small towns and adjacent urban...

Recent findings related to measuring and modeling forest road erosion

Treesearch

W. J. Elliot; R. B. Foltz; P. R. Robichaud

2009-01-01

Sediment is the greatest pollutant of forest streams. In the absence of wildfire, forest road networks are usually the main source of sediment in forest watersheds. An understanding of forest road erosion processes is important to aid in predicting sediment delivery from roads to streams. The flowpath followed by runoff is the key to understanding road erosion...

Spectral analysis of charcoal on soils: Implications for wildland fire severity mapping methods

Treesearch

Alistair M. S. Smith; Jan U. H. Eitel; Andrew T. Hudak

2010-01-01

Recent studies in the Western United States have supported climate scenarios that predict a higher occurrence of large and severe wildfires. Knowledge of the severity is important to infer long-term biogeochemical, ecological, and societal impacts, but understanding the sensitivity of any severity mapping method to variations in soil type and increasing charcoal (char...

Wildfire simulation using LES with synthetic-velocity SGS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonough, J. M.; Tang, Tingting

2016-11-01

Wildland fires are becoming more prevalent and intense worldwide as climate change leads to warmer, drier conditions; and large-eddy simulation (LES) is receiving increasing attention for fire spread predictions as computing power continues to improve (see, e.g.,). We report results from wildfire simulations over general terrain employing implicit LES for solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes (N.-S.) and thermal energy equations with Boussinesq approximation, altered with Darcy, Forchheimer and Brinkman extensions, to represent forested regions as porous media with varying (in both space and time) porosity and permeability. We focus on subgrid-scale (SGS) behaviors computed with a synthetic-velocity model, a discrete dynamical system, based on the poor man's N.-S. equations and investigate the ability of this model to produce fire whirls (tornadoes of fire) at the (unresolved) SGS level. Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Mathematics.

Net benefits of wildfire prevention education efforts

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; David T. Butry; Karen L. Abt; Ronda Sutphen

2010-01-01

Wildfire prevention education efforts involve a variety of methods, including airing public service announcements, distributing brochures, and making presentations, which are intended to reduce the occurrence of certain kinds of wildfires. A Poisson model of preventable Florida wildfires from 2002 to 2007 by fire management region was developed. Controlling for...

Projecting wildfire emissions over the south-eastern United States to mid-century

Treesearch

Uma Shankar; Jeffrey Prestemon; Donald McKenzie; Kevin Talgo; Aijun Xiu; Mohammad Omary; Bok Haeng Baek; Dongmei Yang; William Vizuete

2018-01-01

Wildfires can impair human health because of the toxicity of emitted pollutants, and threaten communities, structures and the integrity of ecosystems sensitive to disturbance. Climate and socioeconomic factors (e.g. population and income growth) are known regional drivers of wildfires. Reflecting changes in these factors in wildfire...

Living with wildfire in Colorado

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Nicholas Flores; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

2010-01-01

In this presentation, we describe results of a survey to homeowners living in wildfire-prone areas of two counties along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. The survey was designed to elicit information on homeowners' experience with wildfire, perceptions of wildfire risk on their property and neighboring properties, mitigation efforts undertaken...

Estimating the avoided fuel-reatment costs of wildfire

Treesearch

Geoffrey H. Donovan; Thomas C. Brown

2008-01-01

Although the importance of wildfire to fire-adapted ecosystems is widely recognized, wildfire management has historically placed less emphasis on the beneficial effects of wildfire. We estimate the avoided fuel treatment cost for 10 ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) stands on the Umatilla National Forest in the Pacific Northwest. Results show that...

Human-ignited wildfire patterns and responses to policy shifts

Treesearch

M. L. Chas-Amil; J. P. Prestemon; C. J. McClean; J. Touza

2015-01-01

Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge,...

Sagebrush wildfire effects on surface soil nutrient availability: A temporal and spatial study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wildfires occurring in Artemisia (sagebrush) ecosystems can temporarily increase soil nutrient availability in surface soil. Less is known, however, on how soil nutrient availability changes over time and microsite location post-wildfire. In Oct., 2013 a wildfire approximately 30 km north of Reno, N...

Adapting to wildfire: Rebuilding after home loss

Treesearch

Miranda H. Mockrin; Susan I. Stewart; Volker C. Radeloff; Roger B. Hammer; Patricia M. Alexandre

2015-01-01

Wildfire management now emphasizes fire-adapted communities that coexist with wildfires, although it is unclear how communities will progress to this goal. Hazards research suggests that response to wildfire - specifically, rebuilding after fire - may be a crucial opportunity for homeowner and community adaptation. We explore rebuilding after the 2010 Fourmile Canyon...

Introduction to this special issue on statistics for wildfire processes

Treesearch

Marcia Gumpertz

2009-01-01

This special issue on statistics for wildfire processes brings together foresters, wildfire ecologists, statisticians, mathematicians, and economists. All of these disciplines bring different interests, approaches and expertise to the modeling of wildfire processes. It is not necessarily easy, however, to communicate across disciplines or follow the developments in a...

A high-resolution modelling approach on spatial wildfire distribution in the Tyrolean Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malowerschnig, Bodo; Sass, Oliver

2013-04-01

Global warming will cause increasing danger of wildfires in Austria, which can have long-lasting consequences on woodland ecosystems. The protective effect of forest can be severely diminished, leading to natural hazards like avalanches and rockfall. However, data on wildfire frequency and distribution have been sparse and incomplete for Austria. Long-lasting postfire degradation under adverse preconditions (steep slopes, limestone) was a common phenomenon in parts of the Tyrolean Alps several decades ago and should become relevant again under a changing fire frequency. The FIRIA project compiles historical wildfire data, information on fuel loads, fire weather indices (FWI) and vegetation recovery patterns. The governing climatic, topographic and socio-economic factors of forest fire distribution were assessed to trigger a distribution model of currently fire-prone areas in Tyrol. By collecting data from different sources like old newspapers archives and fire-fighter databases, we were able to build up a fire database of wildfire occurrences containing more than 1400 forest fires since the 15th century in Tyrol. For the period from 1993 to 2011, the database is widely complete and covers 482 fires. Using a non-parametrical statistical method it was possible to select the best suited fire weather index (FWI) for the prediction. The testing of 19 FWI's shows that it is necessary to use two discriminative indices to differentiate between summer and winter season. Together with compiled topographic, socio-economic, infrastructure and forest maps, the dataset was the base for a multifactorial analysis, performed by comparing the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) with an ensemble classifier (Random Forests). Both approaches have their background in the spatial habitat distribution and are easy to adapt to the requirements of a wildfire ignition model. The aim of this modelling approach was to determine areas which are particularly prone to wildfire. Due to the pronounced relief curvature we based our model on 100 x 100 m cells to identify individual slopes and their topography. The first provisional result is a map of fire probability under current climate conditions (fire hot-spots). Our modelling approach indicates the fire weather index as the main driver, which is followed closely by socioeconomic (population density) and infrastructure factors (roads density, aerial railways, building density). The leverage of the forest community or its management is rather low; the same applies to topographic influences like aspect or sea level. The derived fire hot-spots are either placed close to the valley ground or around touristic infrastructure, with an overall preference for inner alpine areas and south-facing slopes. In the next step, the impact of climate change on the distribution and frequency of fires will be assessed by calculating a climate change model adapted to the 1x1km INCA dataset and based on different regional climate change models. Finally, a selection of fire-hot-spots from the previous modelling steps will be used for enhanced 3D-modelling approaches of natural hazards after wildfire-driven deforestation.

Streamwater Quality Data from the 2002 Hayman, Hinman, and Missionary Ridge Wildfires, Colorado, 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ranalli, Anthony J.; Stevens, Michael R.

2003-01-01

Concern about water-quality issues related to wildfires in Colorado has intensified because of the wildfires that occurred in Colorado during the summer of 2002. In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted water-quality sampling of burned and unburned watersheds in the areas affected by the Hayman, Hinman, and Missionary Ridge wildfires to provide information to scientists, watershed managers, and public-water suppliers regarding the extent to which wildfires may cause water-quality degradation.

Enhanced canopy fuel mapping by integrating lidar data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Birgit E.; Nelson, Kurtis J.

2016-10-03

BackgroundThe Wildfire Sciences Team at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science Center produces vegetation type, vegetation structure, and fuel products for the United States, primarily through the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) program. LANDFIRE products are used across disciplines for a variety of applications. The LANDFIRE data retain their currency and relevancy through periodic updating or remapping. These updating and remapping efforts provide opportunities to improve the LANDFIRE product suite by incorporating data from other sources. Light detection and ranging (lidar) is uniquely suitable for gathering information on vegetation structure and spatial arrangement because it can collect data in three dimensions. The Wildfire Sciences Team has several completed and ongoing studies focused on integrating lidar into vegetation and fuels mapping.

Towards Experimental Operational Fire Weather Prediction at Subseasonal to Seasonal Scales for Alaska Using the NMME Hindcasts and Realtime Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, A.; Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.; York, A.; Peng, P.; Brettschneider, B.; Thoman, R.; Jandt, R.; Ziel, R.; Branson, G.; Strader, M. H.; Alden, M. S.

2017-12-01

The summer 2004 and 2015 wildfires in Alaska were the two largest fire seasons on record since 1950 where approximately the land area of Massachusetts burned. The record fire year of 2004 resulted in 6.5 million acres burned while the 2015 wildfire season resulted in 5.2 million acres burned. In addition to the logistical cost of fighting fires and the loss of infrastructure, wildfires also lead to dangerous air quality in Alaska. Fires in Alaska result from lightning strikes coupled with persistent (extreme) dry warm conditions in remote areas with limited fire management and the seasonal climate/weather determine the extent of the fire season in Alaska. Advanced weather/climate outlooks for allocating staff and resources from days to a season are particularly needed by fire managers. However, there are no operational seasonal products currently for the Alaska region. Probabilistic forecasts of the expected seasonal climate/weather would aid tremendously in the planning process. Earlier insight of both lightening and fuel conditions would assist fire managers in planning resource allocation for the upcoming season. For fuel conditions, the state-of-the-art NMME (1982-2017) climate predictions were used to compute the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS). The CFFWIS is used by fire managers to forecast forest fires in Alaska. NMME forecast (March and May) based Buildup Index (BUI) values were underestimated compared to BUI based on reanalysis and station data, demonstrating the necessity for bias correction. Post processing of NMME data will include bias correction using the quantile mapping technique. This study will provide guidance as to the what are the best available products for anticipating the fire season.

Return on investment from fuel treatments to reduce severe wildfire and erosion in a watershed investment program in Colorado.

PubMed

Jones, Kelly W; Cannon, Jeffery B; Saavedra, Freddy A; Kampf, Stephanie K; Addington, Robert N; Cheng, Antony S; MacDonald, Lee H; Wilson, Codie; Wolk, Brett

2017-08-01

A small but growing number of watershed investment programs in the western United States focus on wildfire risk reduction to municipal water supplies. This paper used return on investment (ROI) analysis to quantify how the amounts and placement of fuel treatment interventions would reduce sediment loading to the Strontia Springs Reservoir in the Upper South Platte River watershed southwest of Denver, Colorado following an extreme fire event. We simulated various extents of fuel mitigation activities under two placement strategies: (a) a strategic treatment prioritization map and (b) accessibility. Potential fire behavior was modeled under each extent and scenario to determine the impact on fire severity, and this was used to estimate expected change in post-fire erosion due to treatments. We found a positive ROI after large storm events when fire mitigation treatments were placed in priority areas with diminishing marginal returns after treating >50-80% of the forested area. While our ROI results should not be used prescriptively they do show that, conditional on severe fire occurrence and precipitation, investments in the Upper South Platte could feasibly lead to positive financial returns based on the reduced costs of dredging sediment from the reservoir. While our analysis showed positive ROI focusing only on post-fire erosion mitigation, it is important to consider multiple benefits in future ROI calculations and increase monitoring and evaluation of these benefits of wildfire fuel reduction investments for different site conditions and climates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization and typification of small ruminant farms providing fuelbreak grazing services for wildfire prevention in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Mena, Y; Ruiz-Mirazo, J; Ruiz, F A; Castel, J M

2016-02-15

Several wildfire prevention programs in Spain are using grazing livestock to maintain fuelbreaks with low levels of biomass. Even though shepherds are remunerated for these services, many of their farms are hardly viable in the current socio-economic context. By analyzing 54 small ruminant farms participating in the Grazed Fuelbreak Network in Andalusia (southern Spain), this research aimed to identify the main types and characteristics of such farms and, considering the challenges they are facing, propose strategies to improve both their economic viability and their effectiveness in fuelbreak grazing. Based on data collected through a survey on key farm management aspects, a multivariate analysis was performed and four main types of farm were identified: two clusters of dairy goat farms and two composed mostly of meat-purpose sheep farms. Farms in all clusters could benefit from improvements in the feeding and reproductive management of livestock, either to enhance their productivity or to make better use of the pasture resources available. Dairy goat farms remain more dependent on external animal feed to ensure a better lactation, therefore they should either diminish their workforce costs per animal or sell transformed products directly to consumers to improve their economic viability. Best fuelbreak grazing results were related to larger flocks combining sheep and goats, lower ratios of fuelbreak surface area per animal, and longer (year-long) grazing periods on fuelbreaks. Therefore, such farm features and adjusted fuelbreak assignments should be favored in wildfire prevention programs using grazing services. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure

Treesearch

Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Kate Marcille

2012-01-01

The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary...

Fire regimes approaching historic norms reduce wildfire-facilitated conversion from forest to non-forest

Treesearch

Ryan B. Walker; Jonathan D. Coop; Sean A. Parks; Laura Trader

2018-01-01

Extensive high-severity wildfires have driven major losses of ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests in the southwestern United States, in some settings catalyzing enduring conversions to nonforested vegetation types. Management interventions to reduce the probability of stand-replacing wildfire have included mechanical fuel treatments, prescribed fire, and wildfire...

43 CFR 5003.1 - Effect of decisions; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other reasons, or at immediate risk of erosion or other damage due to wildfire, BLM may make a wildfire management decision made under this part and parts.... Wildfire management includes but is not limited to: (1) Fuel reduction or fuel treatment such as prescribed...

43 CFR 5003.1 - Effect of decisions; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other reasons, or at immediate risk of erosion or other damage due to wildfire, BLM may make a wildfire management decision made under this part and parts.... Wildfire management includes but is not limited to: (1) Fuel reduction or fuel treatment such as prescribed...

43 CFR 5003.1 - Effect of decisions; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other reasons, or at immediate risk of erosion or other damage due to wildfire, BLM may make a wildfire management decision made under this part and parts.... Wildfire management includes but is not limited to: (1) Fuel reduction or fuel treatment such as prescribed...

43 CFR 5003.1 - Effect of decisions; general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other reasons, or at immediate risk of erosion or other damage due to wildfire, BLM may make a wildfire management decision made under this part and parts.... Wildfire management includes but is not limited to: (1) Fuel reduction or fuel treatment such as prescribed...

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy

Treesearch

Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Fermin J. Alcasena; Bachisio Arca; Mark A. Finney; Grazia Pellizzaro; Donatella Spano

2015-01-01

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn...

External charring and fire scarring in three western conifers

Treesearch

E. K. Sutherland; Josh Farella; David K Wright; Ian Hyp; K. T. Smith; Donald A. Falk; Estelle Arbellay; Markus Stoffel

2013-01-01

Fires that injure but do not kill trees cause scars used as proxies for the reconstruction of wildfire history. Understanding about these wildfires - and their relationship to vegetation dynamics and climate - has profoundly affected wildfire and land management policy globally. To better understand scarring in the context of wildfire behavior, landscape and biological...

Economic optimisation of wildfire intervention activities

Treesearch

David T. Butry; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Karen L. Abt; Ronda Sutphen

2010-01-01

We describe how two important tools of wildfire management, wildfire prevention education and prescribed fire for fuels management, can be coordinated to minimise the combination of management costs and expected societal losses resulting from wildland fire. We present a long-run model that accounts for the dynamics of wildfire, the effects of fuels management on...

Wildfire-migration dynamics: Lessons from Colorado's Fourmile Canyon Fire

Treesearch

Raphael J. Nawrotzki; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Lori M. Hunter; Patricia A. Champ

2013-01-01

The number of people living in wildfire-prone wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities is on the rise. However, no prior study has investigated wildfire-induced residential relocation from WUI areas after a major fire event. To provide insight into the association between sociodemographic and sociopsychological characteristics and wildfire-related intention to move,...

The importance of considering external influences during presuppression wildfire planning

Treesearch

Marc R. Wiitala; Andrew E. Wilson

2008-01-01

Few administrative units involved in wildland fire protection are islands unto themselves when it comes to wildfire activity and suppression. If not directly affected by the wildfire workload of their neighbors, they are affected by the availability of nationally shared resources impacted by wildfire activity at the regional and national scale. These external...

Citizen-agency interactions in planning and decisionmaking after large wildfires.

Treesearch

Christine S. Olsen; Bruce A. Shindler

2007-01-01

This report reviews the growing literature on the concept of agency-citizen interactions after large wildfires. Because large wildfires have historically occurred at irregular intervals, research from related fields has been reviewed where appropriate. This issue is particularly salient in the West where excess fuel conditions indicate that the large wildfires...

Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Dave Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2015-01-01

Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to...

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

PubMed

Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

2009-11-01

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

Wildfire exposure analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Buonopane, Michelle; Reger, Allison; Finney, Mark A

2013-06-01

We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small fires from anthropogenic ignitions. Wildfire simulation modeling was used to characterize potential wildfire behavior in terms of annual burn probability and flame length. Spatial data on selected social and ecological features were obtained from Forest Service GIS databases and elsewhere. The potential wildfire behavior was then summarized for each spatial location of each resource. The analysis suggested strong spatial variation in both burn probability and conditional flame length for many of the features examined, including biodiversity, urban interfaces, and infrastructure. We propose that the spatial patterns in modeled wildfire behavior could be used to improve existing prioritization of fuel management and wildfire preparedness activities within the Pacific Northwest region. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Birth weight following pregnancy during the 2003 Southern California wildfires.

PubMed

Holstius, David M; Reid, Colleen E; Jesdale, Bill M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel

2012-09-01

In late October 2003, a series of wildfires exposed urban populations in Southern California to elevated levels of air pollution over several weeks. Previous research suggests that short-term hospital admissions for respiratory outcomes increased specifically as a result of these fires. We assessed the impact of a wildfire event during pregnancy on birth weight among term infants. Using records for singleton term births delivered to mothers residing in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) during 2001-2005 (n = 886,034), we compared birth weights from pregnancies that took place entirely before or after the wildfire event (n = 747,590) with those where wildfires occurred during the first (n = 60,270), second (n = 39,435), or third (n = 38,739) trimester. The trimester-specific effects of wildfire exposure were estimated using a fixed-effects regression model with several maternal characteristics included as covariates. Compared with pregnancies before and after the wildfires, mean birth weight was estimated to be 7.0 g lower [95% confidence interval (CI): -11.8, -2.2] when the wildfire occurred during the third trimester, 9.7 g lower when it occurred during the second trimester (95% CI: -14.5, -4.8), and 3.3 g lower when it occurred during the first trimester (95% CI: -7.2, 0.6). Pregnancy during the 2003 Southern California wildfires was associated with slightly reduced average birth weight among infants exposed in utero. The extent and increasing frequency of wildfire events may have implications for infant health and development.

Health impacts of wildfires.

PubMed

Finlay, Sarah Elise; Moffat, Andrew; Gazzard, Rob; Baker, David; Murray, Virginia

2012-11-02

Introduction Wildfires are common globally. Although there has been considerable work done on the health effects of wildfires in countries such as the USA where they occur frequently there has been relatively little work to investigate health effects in the United Kingdom. Climate change may increase the risk of increasing wildfire frequency, therefore there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. This study was designed to review current evidence about the health effects of wildfires from the UK standpoint. Methods A comprehensive literature review of international evidence regarding wildfire related health effects was conducted in January 2012. Further information was gathered from authors' focus groups. Results A review of the published evidence shows that human health can be severely affected by wildfires. Certain populations are particularly vulnerable. Wood smoke has high levels of particulate matter and toxins. Respiratory morbidity predominates, but cardiovascular, ophthalmic and psychiatric problems can also result. In addition severe burns resulting from direct contact with the fire require care in special units and carry a risk of multi - organ complications. The wider health implications from spreading air, water and land pollution are of concern. Access to affected areas and communication with populations living within them is crucial in mitigating risk. Conclusion This study has identified factors that may reduce public health risk from wildfires. However more research is needed to evaluate longer term health effects from wildfires. An understanding of such factors is vital to ensure preparedness within health care services for such events.

Health Impacts of Wildfires

PubMed Central

Finlay, Sarah Elise; Moffat, Andrew; Gazzard, Rob; Baker, David; Murray, Virginia

2012-01-01

Introduction Wildfires are common globally. Although there has been considerable work done on the health effects of wildfires in countries such as the USA where they occur frequently there has been relatively little work to investigate health effects in the United Kingdom. Climate change may increase the risk of increasing wildfire frequency, therefore there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. This study was designed to review current evidence about the health effects of wildfires from the UK standpoint. Methods A comprehensive literature review of international evidence regarding wildfire related health effects was conducted in January 2012. Further information was gathered from authors’ focus groups. Results A review of the published evidence shows that human health can be severely affected by wildfires. Certain populations are particularly vulnerable. Wood smoke has high levels of particulate matter and toxins. Respiratory morbidity predominates, but cardiovascular, ophthalmic and psychiatric problems can also result. In addition severe burns resulting from direct contact with the fire require care in special units and carry a risk of multi – organ complications. The wider health implications from spreading air, water and land pollution are of concern. Access to affected areas and communication with populations living within them is crucial in mitigating risk. Conclusion This study has identified factors that may reduce public health risk from wildfires. However more research is needed to evaluate longer term health effects from wildfires. An understanding of such factors is vital to ensure preparedness within health care services for such events. PMID:23145351

Assessment of multi-wildfire occurrence data for machine learning based risk modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Kim, M.; Kim, S. J.; Yoo, S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of East Asian wildfires is mainly caused by human-activities, but the extreme drought increased due to the climate change caused wildfires and they spread to large-scale fires. Accurate occurrence location data is required for modelling wildfire probability and risk. In South Korea, occurrence data surveyed through KFS (Korea Forest Service) and MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite-based active fire data can be utilized. In this study, two sorts of wildfire occurrence data were applied to select suitable occurrence data for machine learning based wildfire risk modelling. MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model based on machine learning is used for wildfire risk modelling, and two types of occurrence data and socio-economic and climate-environment data are applied to modelling. In the results with KFS survey based data, the low relationship was shown with climate-environmental factors, and the uncertainty of coordinate information appeared. The MODIS-based active fire data were found outside the forests, and there were a lot of spots that did not match the actual wildfires. In order to utilize MODIS-based active fire data, it was necessary to extract forest area and utilize only high-confidence level data. In KFS data, it was necessary to separate the analysis according to the damage scale to improve the modelling accuracy. Ultimately, it is considered to be the best way to simulate the wildfire risk by constructing more accurate information by combining two sorts of wildfire occurrence data.

Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

2018-01-01

Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire-climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001-2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June-August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter-spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire-climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future studies which integrate multiple datasets (i.e. climate, fuels, topography, and ignition sources) to accurately estimate carbon emission from tundra burning and its global climate feedbacks in coming decades.

The Impact of CO2-Driven Vegetation Changes on Wildfire Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skinner, C. B.; Poulsen, C. J.

2017-12-01

While wildfires are a key component of natural ecological restoration and succession, they also pose tremendous risks to human life, health, and property. Wildfire frequency is expected to increase in many regions as the radiative effects of elevated CO2 drive warmer surface air temperatures, earlier spring snow melt, and more frequent meteorological drought. However, high CO2 concentrations will also directly impact vegetation growth and physiology, potentially altering wildfire characteristics through changes in fuel amount and surface hydrology. Depending on the biome and time of year, these vegetation-driven responses may mitigate or enhance radiative-driven wildfire changes. In this study, we use a suite of earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 with active biogeophysics and biogeochemistry to understand how the vegetation response to high CO2 (CO2 quadrupling) contributes to future changes in wildfire risk across the globe. Across the models, projected CO2 fertilization enhances aboveground biomass (about a 30% leaf area index (LAI) increase averaged across the globe) during the spring and summer months, increasing the availability of wildfire fuel across all biomes. Despite greater LAI, models robustly project widespread reductions in summer season transpiration (about -15% averaged across the globe) in response to reduced stomatal conductance from CO2 physiological forcing. Reduced transpiration warms summer season near surface temperatures and lowers relative humidity across vegetated regions of the mid-to-high latitudes, heightening the risk of wildfire occurrence. However, as transpiration goes down in response to greater plant water use efficiency, a larger fraction of soil water remains in the soil, potentially halting the spread of wildfires in some regions. Given the myriad ways in which the vegetation response to CO2 may alter wildfire risk, and the robustness of the responses across models, an explicit simulation of the wildfire response to CO2-driven vegetation change with the Community Earth System Model will be presented. The results suggest that many atmosphere-centric statistical wildfire metrics do not capture the many processes that will shape future wildfire risk in a high CO2 world and highlight the need for process-based fire modeling.

Spatial and temporal evapotranspiration trends after wildfire in semi-arid landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, Patrick K.; Kinoshita, Alicia M.

2018-04-01

In recent years climate change and other anthropogenic factors have contributed to increased wildfire frequency and size in western United States forests. This research focuses on the evaluation of spatial and temporal changes in evapotranspiration (ET) following the 2011 Las Conchas Fire in New Mexico (USA) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop ET). Evapotranspiration is coupled with soil burn severity and analyzed for 16 watersheds for water years 2001-2014. An average annual decrease of 120 mm of ET is observed within the regions affected by the Las Conchas Fire, and conifers were converted to grassland a year after the fire. On average, the post-fire annual ET in high, moderate, and low burn severity is lower than pre-fire ET by approximately 103-352 mm, 97-304 mm, and 91-268 mm, respectively. The ratio of post-fire evapotranspiration to precipitation (ET/P) is statistically different from pre-fire conditions (α = 0.05) in nine of the watersheds. The largest decrease in ET is approximately 13-57 mm per month and is most prominent during the summer (April to September). The observed decrease in ET contributes to our understanding of changes in water yield following wildfires, which is of interest for accurately modeling and predicting hydrologic processes in semi-arid landscapes.

Fire Restoration in the Northern Region, USDA Forest Service

Treesearch

Glenda Scott; Steve Shelly; Jim Olivarez

2005-01-01

Restoring native plant communities is a key objective in the maintenance of healthy ecosystems. Opportunities have increased following recent wildfires. This paper describes the policy and history behind the reforestation and restoration programs in the Northern Region (Region 1) of the USDA Forest Service, which focused primarily on meeting the objectives in the...

Prioritization of forest restoration projects: Tradeoffs between wildfire protection, ecological restoration and economic objectives

Treesearch

Kevin C. Vogler; Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Michael Jennings; John D. Bailey

2015-01-01

The implementation of US federal forest restoration programs on national forests is a complex process that requires balancing diverse socioecological goals with project economics. Despite both the large geographic scope and substantial investments in restoration projects, a quantitative decision support framework to locate optimal project areas and examine...

A computer-based tutorial structure for teaching and applying a complex process

Treesearch

Daniel L. Schmoldt; William G Bradshaw

1991-01-01

Economic accountability concerns for wildfire prevention planning have led to the development of an ignition management approach to fire problems. The Fire Loss Prevention Planning Process (FLPPP) systematizes fire problem analyses and concomitantly establishes a means for evaluating prescribed prevention programs. However, new users of the FLPPP have experienced...

Pros in Parks: Integrated Programming for Reaching Our Urban Park Operations Audience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Laura M.; Walker, Jamie Rae

2016-01-01

In addition to regular job duties, such as tree care, mulching, irrigation, and pesticide management, urban park workers have faced environmental changes due to drought, wildfires, and West Nile virus. They simultaneously have endured expectations to manage growing, diversifying park usage and limitations on career development. An integrated…

Disturbance ecology of high-elevation five-needle pine ecosystems in western North America

Treesearch

Elizabeth M. Campbell; Robert E. Keane; Evan R. Larson; Michael P. Murray; Anna W. Schoettle; Carmen Wong

2011-01-01

This paper synthesizes existing information about the disturbance ecology of high-elevation five-needle pine ecosystems, describing disturbances regimes, how they are changing or are expected to change, and the implications for ecosystem persistence. As it provides the context for ecosystem conservation/restoration programs, we devote particular attention to wildfire...

MCFire model technical description

Treesearch

David R. Conklin; James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; John B. Kim

2016-01-01

MCFire is a computer program that simulates the occurrence and effects of wildfire on natural vegetation, as a submodel within the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model. This report is a technical description of the algorithms and parameter values used in MCFire, intended to encapsulate its design and features a higher level that is more conceptual than the level...

U.S. Climate change science program. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2: Thresholds of change in ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the past three decades, climate change has become a pronounced driver of ecosystem change. Changes in phenology, range shift of species, and increases in disturbances such as wildfires have all reflected ecosystem scales responses to a warming biosphere. There have also been abrupt, nonlinear cha...

40 CFR 80.1451 - What are the reporting requirements under the RFS program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... biofuel, biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, renewable fuel, and cellulosic diesel), retired for...) used for each batch meets the definition of renewable biomass as defined in § 80.1401. (P) Producers of... thinnings from forestlands or biomass obtained from areas at risk of wildfire must submit quarterly reports...

Recent workforce trends and their effects on the silviculture program in British Columbia

Treesearch

John Betts

2008-01-01

British Columbia's entrepreneurial silviculture sector provides a reliable just-in-time service delivery of forestry activities from planting trees to fighting wildfires. Transient, and seeming to rely often on improvisation, contractors actually run logistically sophisticated businesses that are able to match varying field conditions to the biological and...

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a preliminary map of vegetation burn severity if desired. The next steps include mapping catchment boundaries, field traverses to collect data on soil burn severity and water repellency, identification of unstable hillslopes and channels, and inspection of values at risk from hazards such as debris flows or flooding. BARC (burned area reflectance classification) maps based on satellite imagery are prepared for some fires, although these are typically not available for several weeks. Our objective is to make a preliminary risk analysis report available about two weeks after the fire is contained. If high risks to public safety or infrastructure are identified, the risk analysis reports may make recommendations for mitigation measures to be considered; however, acting on these recommendations is the responsibility of local land managers, local government, or landowners. Mitigation measures for some fires have included engineering treatments to reduce the hydrologic impact of logging roads, protective structures such as dykes or berms, and straw mulching to reduce runoff and erosion on severely burned areas. The Terrace Mountain Fire, with burned 9000 hectares in the Okanagan Valley in 2009, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

Understanding change: Wildfire in Boulder County, Colorado

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia A. Champ; Amy L. Telligman

2013-01-01

Wildfire activity continues to plague communities in the American West. Three causes are often identified as key contributors to the wildfire problem: accumulated fuels on public lands due to a history of suppressing wildfires; climate change; and an influx of residents into fire prone areas referred to as the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The latter of these...

Understanding change: Wildfire in Larimer County, Colorado

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia A. Champ

2013-01-01

Wildfire activity continues to plague communities in the American West. Three causes are often identified as key contributors to the wildfire problem: accumulated fuels on public lands due to a history of suppressing wildfires; climate change; and an influx of residents into fire prone areas referred to as the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The latter of these...

Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North

2010-01-01

Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

The Air National Guard’s Role in Wildfire Emergency Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-14

destructive emergency situation faced. In January, 2012, the research think-tank organization Headwaters Economics, headquartered in Bozeman , Montana...Headwaters Economics. Evidence for the effect of homes on wildfire supression costs. Bozeman , MT: Headwaters Economics, 2011. 21 Headwaters...Economics. How Much do Homes Contribute to Wildfire Suppression Costs? Bozeman , MT: Headwaters Economics, 2012. Headwaters Economics. Montana Wildfire

A review of state and local regulation for wildfire mitigation

Treesearch

Terry K. Haines; Cheryl R. Renner; Margaret A. Reams

2008-01-01

Wildfire may result from natural processes or as the result of human actions (Ffolliott 1988, Mees 1990). As a natural phenomenon, it is important in sustaining forest health in fire-dependent ecosystems. While some wildfire may be ecologically beneficial, it poses a threat to residential communities located within or adjacent to the forest. Wildfire is considered a...

Managing saltcedar after a summer wildfire in the Texas Rolling Plains

Treesearch

Russell Fox; Rob Mitchell; Mike Davin

2001-01-01

Saltcedar (Tamarix spp) has invaded nearly one million acres of riparian ecosystems in the southwestern U.S., displacing many native species. The objectives of this study were to estimate saltcedar mortality to summer wildfire, summer wildfire followed by rollerchopping, and dormant season treatment with 25 percent triclopyr to regrowth following a summer wildfire at...

North Pacific warming and intense northwestern U.S. wildfires

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2006-01-01

The tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies such as La Nina have been an important predictor for wildfires in the southeastern and southwestern U.S. This study seeks seasonal predictors for wildfires in the northwestern U.S., a region with the most intense wildfires among various continental U.S. regions. Singular value decomposition and regression...

Factors related to building loss due to wildfires in the conterminous United States

Treesearch

Patricia M. Alexandre; Susan I. Stewart; Nicholas S. Keuler; Murray K. Clayton; Miranda H. Mockrin; Avi Bar-Massada; Alexandra D. Syphard; Volker C. Radeloff

2016-01-01

Wildfire is globally an important ecological disturbance affecting biochemical cycles and vegetation composition, but also puts people and their homes at risk. Suppressing wildfires has detrimental ecological effects and can promote larger and more intense wildfires when fuels accumulate, which increases the threat to buildings in the wildland- urban interface (WUI)....

Wildfire Ignitions: A Review of the Science and Recommendations for Empirical Modeling

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Todd J. Hawbaker; Michael Bowden; John Carpenter; Maureen T. Brooks; Karen L. Abt; Ronda Sutphen; Samuel Scranton

2013-01-01

Deriving from original work under the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy completed in 2011, this report summarizes the state of knowledge regarding the underlying causes and the role of wildfire prevention efforts on all major categories of wildfires, including findings from research that have sought to model wildfire occurrences over fine and broad...

Assessing exposure of human and ecological values to wildfire in Sardinia, Italy

Treesearch

Michele Salis; Alan A. Ager; Bachisio Arca; Mark A. Finney; Valentina Bacciu; Pierpaolo Duce; Donatella Spano

2012-01-01

We used simulation modelling to analyze spatial variation in wildfire exposure relative to key social and economic features on the island of Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia contains a high density of urban interfaces, recreational values and highly valued agricultural areas that are increasingly being threatened by severe wildfires. Historical fire data and wildfire...

Community wildfire protection planning in the American West: homogeneity within diversity?

Treesearch

Jesse Abrams; Max Nielsen-Pincus; Travis Paveglio; Cassandra Moseley

2016-01-01

As large wildfires have become common across the American West, federal policies such as the Healthy Forests Restoration Act have empowered local communities to plan for their own wildfire protection. Here, we present an analysis of 113 community wildfire protection plans from 10 western states where large fires have recently occurred. These plans contain wide...

Wildfire risk and housing prices: a case study from Colorado Springs.

Treesearch

G.H. Donovan; P.A. Champ; D.T. Butry

2007-01-01

Unlike other natural hazards such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes, wildfire risk has not previously been examined using a hedonic property value model. In this article, we estimate a hedonic model based on parcel-level wildfire risk ratings from Colorado Springs. We found that providing homeowners with specific information about the wildfire risk rating of their...

Avian relationships with wildfire at two dry forest locations with different historical fire regimes

Treesearch

Quresh Latif; Jamie Sanderlin; Vicki Saab; William Block; Jonathan Dudley

2016-01-01

Wildfire is a key factor influencing bird community composition in western North American forests. We need to understand species and community responses to wildfire and how responses vary regionally to effectively manage dry conifer forests for maintaining biodiversity. We compared avian relationships with wildfire burn severity between two dry forest...

Living with wildfire in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado

Treesearch

James R. Meldrum; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia Colter Falk; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Travis Warziniack; Patricia Champ

2013-01-01

Over the past 50 years, Colorado has experienced an increase in the number and size of wildfires on its public and private lands. Nationwide, expenditures on wildfire suppression have increased for decades and now are measured in the billions of tax dollars. Current trends in climate changes, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and expansion of the...

Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of...

Places where wildfire potential and social vulnerability coincide in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

Gabriel Wigtil; Roger B. Hammer; Jeffrey D. Kline; Miranda H. Mockrin; Susan I. Stewart; Daniel Roper; Volker C. Radeloff

2016-01-01

The hazards-of-place model posits that vulnerability to environmental hazards depends on both biophysical and social factors. Biophysical factors determine where wildfire potential is elevated, whereas social factors determine where and how people are affected by wildfire. We evaluated place vulnerability to wildfire hazards in the coterminous US. We developed...

Assessing the expected effects of wildfire on vegetation condition on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA

Treesearch

J. H. Scott; D. J. Helmbrecht; M. P. Thompson

2014-01-01

Characterizing wildfire risk to a fire-adapted ecosystem presents particular challenges due to its broad spatial extent, inherent complexity, and the difficulty in defining wildfire-induced losses and benefits. Our approach couples stochastic wildfire simulation with a vegetation condition assessment framework to estimate the conditional and expected response of...

Wildfire risk and home purchase decisions.

Treesearch

Patricia Champ; Geoffrey Donovan; Christopher Barth

2008-01-01

In the last 20 years, wildfire damages and the costs of wildfire suppression have risen dramatically. This trend has been attributed to three main factors: climate change, increased fuel loads from a century of wildfire suppression, and increased housing development in fire-prone areas., There is little that fire managers can do about climate change, and current fuel...

Understanding public perspectives of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Sarah McCaffrey

2008-01-01

In recent years, heightened attention to the social dimensions of wildfire has led to increased discussion of wildfire risk. One focus has been on the need to enhance the wildfire risk perception among homeowners living in high fire hazard areas. The underlying supposition is that once they understand risk, homeowners will then take action to reduce their exposure....

Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management (Publ.)

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott; Matthew P. Thompson

2015-01-01

A quantitative measure of wildfire risk across a landscape - expected net change in value of resources and assets exposed to wildfire - was established nearly a decade ago. Assessments made using that measure have been completed at spatial extents ranging from an individual county to the continental United States. The science of wildfire risk assessment and management...

Vulnerability of riparian obligate species to the interactive effect of fire, climate and hydrological change

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Rachel Loehman; Lisa Holsinger; Deborah Finch

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have multiple direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems in the interior western U.S. (Christensen et al., 2007; IPCC 2013). Global climate predictions for the Southwest include higher temperatures, more variable rainfall, and more drought periods, which will likely exacerbate the ongoing issues relating to wildfire and water allocation in...

Fire effects on aquatic ecosystems: An assessment of the current state of the science

Treesearch

Rebecca J. Bixby; Scott D. Cooper; Robert E. Gresswell; Lee E. Brown; Clifford N. Dahm; Kathleen A. Dwire

2015-01-01

Fire is a prevalent feature of many landscapes and has numerous and complex effects on geological, hydrological, ecological, and economic systems. In some regions, the frequency and intensity of wildfire have increased in recent years and are projected to escalate with predicted climatic and landuse changes. In addition, prescribed burns continue to be used in many...

Assessing the accuracy of crown biomass equations for the major commercial species of the interior northwest: study plan and preliminary results

Treesearch

David L.R. Affleck; Brian R. Turnquist

2012-01-01

Fueled by the insistencies of wildfire mitigation, bioenergy development, and carbon sequestration, there is growing demand for reliable characterizations of crown and stem biomass stocks in conifer forests of the Interior Northwest, United States (western Montana, northern Idaho, and eastern Washington). Predictive equations for crown biomass have been developed for...

Building Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) capability and capacity: Lessons learned From Victoria, Australia's Bushfire Behavior Predictive Services Strategy

Treesearch

K. E. Gibos; A. Slijepcevic; T. Wells; L. Fogarty

2015-01-01

Wildland fire managers must frequently make meaning from chaos in order to protect communities and infrastructure from the negative impacts of fire. Fire management personnel are increasingly turning to science to support their experience-based decision-making processes and to provide clear, confident leadership for communities frequently exposed to risk from wildfire...

Persistent effects of fire severity on early successional forests in interior Alaska

Treesearch

Aditi Shenoy; Jill F. Johnstone; Eric S. Kasischke; Knut Kielland

2011-01-01

There has been a recent increase in the frequency and extent of wildfires in interior Alaska, and this trend is predicted to continue under a warming climate. Although less well documented, corresponding increases in fire severity are expected. Previous research from boreal forests in Alaska and western Canada indicate that severe fire promotes the recruitment of...

Mapping forest vegetation for the western United States using modified random forests imputation of FIA forest plots

Treesearch

Karin Riley; Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark A. Finney

2016-01-01

Maps of the number, size, and species of trees in forests across the western United States are desirable for many applications such as estimating terrestrial carbon resources, predicting tree mortality following wildfires, and for forest inventory. However, detailed mapping of trees for large areas is not feasible with current technologies, but statistical...

A key for predicting postfire successional trajectories in black spruce stands of interior Alaska.

Treesearch

Jill F. Johnstone; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill) B.S.P) is the dominant forest cover type in interior Alaska and is prone to frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Through impacts on tree recruitment, the degree of fire consumption of soil organic layers can act as an important determinant of whether black spruce forests regenerate to a forest composition similar...

Mastication and prescribed fire influences on tree mortality and predicted fire behavior in ponderosa pine

Treesearch

Alicia L. Reiner; Nicole M. Vaillant; Scott N. Dailey

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to provide land managers with information on potential wildfire behavior and tree mortality associated with mastication and masticated/fire treatments in a plantation. Additionally, the effect of pulling fuels away from tree boles before applying fire treatment was studied in relation to tree mortality. Fuel characteristics and tree...

Postfire changes in forest carbon storage over a 300-year chronosequence of Pinus contorta-dominated forests

Treesearch

Daniel M. Kashian; William H. Romme; Daniel B. Tinker; Monica G. Turner; Michael G. Ryan

2013-01-01

A warming climate may increase the frequency and severity of stand-replacing wildfires, reducing carbon (C) storage in forest ecosystems. Understanding the variability of postfire C cycling on heterogeneous landscapes is critical for predicting changes in C storage with more frequent disturbance. We measured C pools and fluxes for 77 lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta...

A field guide to predict delayed mortality of fire-damaged ponderosa pine: application and validation of the Malheur model.

Treesearch

Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind; Mark Loewen; Greg Brenner

2008-01-01

The Malheur model for fire-caused delayed mortality is presented as an easily interpreted graph (mortality-probability calculator) as part of a one-page field guide that allows the user to determine postfire probability of mortality for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.). Following both prescribed burns and wildfires, managers need...

Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume 2 for fire behavior specialists, researchers, and meteorologists

Treesearch

Paul A. Werth; Brian E. Potter; Martin E. Alexander; Craig B. Clements; Miguel G. Cruz; Mark A. Finney; Jason M. Forthofer; Scott L. Goodrick; Chad Hoffman; W. Matt Jolly; Sara S. McAllister; Roger D. Ottmar; Russell A. Parsons

2016-01-01

The National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s definition of extreme fire behavior indicates a level of fire behavior characteristics that ordinarily precludes methods of direct control action. One or more of the following is usually involved: high rate of spread, prolific crowning/ spotting, presence of fire whirls, and strong convection column. Predictability is...

Assessment of the FARSITE model for predicting fire behavior in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Ross J. Phillips; Thomas A. Waldrop; Dean M. Simon

2006-01-01

Fuel reduction treatments are necessary in fire-adapted ecosystems where fire has been excluded for decades and the potential for severe wildfire is high. Using the Fire Area Simulator, FARSITE, we examined the spatial and temporal effects of these treatments on fire behavior in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. With measurements from temperature sensors during...

Near real-time wildfire mapping using spatially-refined satellite data: The rim fire case study

Treesearch

Patricia Oliva; Wilfrid Schroeder

2015-01-01

Fire incident teams depend on accurate fire diagnostics and predictive data to guide daily positioning and tactics of fire crews. Currently, the U.S. Department of Agriculture - Forest Service National Infrared Operations (NIROPs) nighttime airborne data provides daily information about the fire front and total fire affected area of priority fires to the incident teams...

Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; environmental consequences fact sheet 10: The Understory Response Model

Treesearch

Steve Sutherland; Melanie Miller

2005-01-01

The Understory Response Model is a species-specific computer model that qualitatively predicts change in total species biomass for grasses, forbs, and shrubs after thinning, prescribed fire, or wildfire. The model examines the effect of fuels management on plant survivorship and reproduction. This fact sheet identifies the intended users and uses, required inputs, what...

Predicting germination in semi-arid wildland seedbeds. I. Thermal germination models

Treesearch

Jennifer K. Rawlins; Bruce A. Roundy; Scott M. Davis; Dennis Eggett

2011-01-01

The key to stopping high-frequency or catastrophic wildfires in the western U.S.A. is the successful restoration of burned lands to functional plant communities. Developing models of seedling establishment for invasive and native species will help in the selection of species for restoration projects that are able to establish and compete with invasive species given the...

The impact of fire on the Late Paleozoic Earth system

PubMed Central

Glasspool, Ian J.; Scott, Andrew C.; Waltham, David; Pronina, Natalia; Shao, Longyi

2015-01-01

Analyses of bulk petrographic data indicate that during the Late Paleozoic wildfires were more prevalent than at present. We propose that the development of fire systems through this interval was controlled predominantly by the elevated atmospheric oxygen concentration (p(O2)) that mass balance models predict prevailed. At higher levels of p(O2), increased fire activity would have rendered vegetation with high-moisture contents more susceptible to ignition and would have facilitated continued combustion. We argue that coal petrographic data indicate that p(O2) rather than global temperatures or climate, resulted in the increased levels of wildfire activity observed during the Late Paleozoic and can, therefore, be used to predict it. These findings are based upon analyses of charcoal volumes in multiple coals distributed across the globe and deposited during this time period, and that were then compared with similarly diverse modern peats and Cenozoic lignites and coals. Herein, we examine the environmental and ecological factors that would have impacted fire activity and we conclude that of these factors p(O2) played the largest role in promoting fires in Late Paleozoic peat-forming environments and, by inference, ecosystems generally, when compared with their prevalence in the modern world. PMID:26442069

The impact of fire on the Late Paleozoic Earth system.

PubMed

Glasspool, Ian J; Scott, Andrew C; Waltham, David; Pronina, Natalia; Shao, Longyi

2015-01-01

Analyses of bulk petrographic data indicate that during the Late Paleozoic wildfires were more prevalent than at present. We propose that the development of fire systems through this interval was controlled predominantly by the elevated atmospheric oxygen concentration (p(O2)) that mass balance models predict prevailed. At higher levels of p(O2), increased fire activity would have rendered vegetation with high-moisture contents more susceptible to ignition and would have facilitated continued combustion. We argue that coal petrographic data indicate that p(O2) rather than global temperatures or climate, resulted in the increased levels of wildfire activity observed during the Late Paleozoic and can, therefore, be used to predict it. These findings are based upon analyses of charcoal volumes in multiple coals distributed across the globe and deposited during this time period, and that were then compared with similarly diverse modern peats and Cenozoic lignites and coals. Herein, we examine the environmental and ecological factors that would have impacted fire activity and we conclude that of these factors p(O2) played the largest role in promoting fires in Late Paleozoic peat-forming environments and, by inference, ecosystems generally, when compared with their prevalence in the modern world.

Analysis of aerosol composition data for western United States wildfires between 2005 and 2015: Dust emissions, chloride depletion, and most enhanced aerosol constituents.

PubMed

Schlosser, Joseph S; Braun, Rachel A; Bradley, Trevor; Dadashazar, Hossein; MacDonald, Alexander B; Aldhaif, Abdulmonam A; Aghdam, Mojtaba Azadi; Mardi, Ali Hossein; Xian, Peng; Sorooshian, Armin

2017-08-27

This study examines major wildfires in the western United States between 2005 and 2015 to determine which species exhibit the highest percent change in mass concentration on day of peak fire influence relative to preceding nonfire days. Forty-one fires were examined using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) data set. Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) constituents exhibited the highest percent change increase. The sharpest enhancements were for the volatile (OC1) and semivolatile (OC2) OC fractions, suggestive of secondary organic aerosol formation during plume transport. Of the noncarbonaceous constituents, Cl, P, K, NO 3 - , and Zn levels exhibited the highest percent change. Dust was significantly enhanced in wildfire plumes, based on significant enhancements in fine soil components (i.e., Si, Ca, Al, Fe, and Ti) and PM coarse (i.e., PM 10 -PM 2.5 ). A case study emphasized how transport of wildfire plumes significantly impacted downwind states, with higher levels of fine soil and PM coarse at the downwind state (Arizona) as compared to the source of the fires (California). A global model (Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, NAAPS) did not capture the dust influence over California or Arizona during this case event because it is not designed to resolve dust dynamics in fires, which motivates improved treatment of such processes. Significant chloride depletion was observed on the peak EC day for almost a half of the fires examined. Size-resolved measurements during two specific fires at a coastal California site revealed significant chloride reductions for particle aerodynamic diameters between 1 and 10 μm.

Differences in human versus lightning fires between urban and rural areas of the boreal forest in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calef, Monika; Varvak, Anna; McGuire, A. David

2017-01-01

In western North America, the carbon-rich boreal forest is experiencing warmer temperatures, drier conditions and larger and more frequent wildfires. However, the fire regime is also affected by direct human activities through suppression, ignition, and land use changes. Models are important predictive tools for understanding future conditions but they are based on regional generalizations of wildfire behavior and weather that do not adequately account for the complexity of human–fire interactions. To achieve a better understanding of the intensity of human influence on fires in this sparsely populated area and to quantify differences between human and lightning fires, we analyzed fires by both ignition types in regard to human proximity in urban (the Fairbanks subregion) and rural areas of interior Alaska using spatial (Geographic Information Systems) and quantitative analysis methods. We found substantial differences in drivers of wildfire: while increases in fire ignitions and area burned were caused by lightning in rural interior Alaska, in the Fairbanks subregion these increases were due to human fires, especially in the wildland urban interface. Lightning fires are starting earlier and fires are burning longer, which is much more pronounced in the Fairbanks subregion than in rural areas. Human fires differed from lightning fires in several ways: they started closer to settlements and highways, burned for a shorter duration, were concentrated in the Fairbanks subregion, and often occurred outside the brief seasonal window for lightning fires. This study provides important insights that improve our understanding of the direct human influence on recently observed changes in wildfire regime with implications for both fire modeling and fire management.

Spatial structures of stream and hillslope drainage networks following gully erosion after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, J.A.; Kinner, D.A.

2006-01-01

The drainage networks of catchment areas burned by wildfire were analysed at several scales. The smallest scale (1-1000 m2) representative of hillslopes, and the small scale (1000 m2 to 1 km2), representative of small catchments, were characterized by the analysis of field measurements. The large scale (1-1000 km2), representative of perennial stream networks, was derived from a 30-m digital elevation model and analysed by computer analysis. Scaling laws used to describe large-scale drainage networks could be extrapolated to the small scale but could not describe the smallest scale of drainage structures observed in the hillslope region. The hillslope drainage network appears to have a second-order effect that reduces the number of order 1 and order 2 streams predicted by the large-scale channel structure. This network comprises two spatial patterns of rills with width-to-depth ratios typically less than 10. One pattern is parallel rills draining nearly planar hillslope surfaces, and the other pattern is three to six converging rills draining the critical source area uphill from an order 1 channel head. The magnitude of this critical area depends on infiltration, hillslope roughness and critical shear stress for erosion of sediment, all of which can be substantially altered by wildfire. Order 1 and 2 streams were found to constitute the interface region, which is altered by a disturbance, like wildfire, from subtle unchannelized drainages in unburned catchments to incised drainages. These drainages are characterized by gullies also with width-to-depth ratios typically less than 10 in burned catchments. The regions (hillslope, interface and chanel) had different drainage network structures to collect and transfer water and sediment. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of aerosol composition data for western United States wildfires between 2005 and 2015: Dust emissions, chloride depletion, and most enhanced aerosol constituents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, Joseph S.; Braun, Rachel A.; Bradley, Trevor; Dadashazar, Hossein; MacDonald, Alexander B.; Aldhaif, Abdulmonam A.; Aghdam, Mojtaba Azadi; Mardi, Ali Hossein; Xian, Peng; Sorooshian, Armin

2017-08-01

This study examines major wildfires in the western United States between 2005 and 2015 to determine which species exhibit the highest percent change in mass concentration on day of peak fire influence relative to preceding nonfire days. Forty-one fires were examined using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) data set. Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) constituents exhibited the highest percent change increase. The sharpest enhancements were for the volatile (OC1) and semivolatile (OC2) OC fractions, suggestive of secondary organic aerosol formation during plume transport. Of the noncarbonaceous constituents, Cl, P, K, NO3-, and Zn levels exhibited the highest percent change. Dust was significantly enhanced in wildfire plumes, based on significant enhancements in fine soil components (i.e., Si, Ca, Al, Fe, and Ti) and PMcoarse (i.e., PM10-PM2.5). A case study emphasized how transport of wildfire plumes significantly impacted downwind states, with higher levels of fine soil and PMcoarse at the downwind state (Arizona) as compared to the source of the fires (California). A global model (Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, NAAPS) did not capture the dust influence over California or Arizona during this case event because it is not designed to resolve dust dynamics in fires, which motivates improved treatment of such processes. Significant chloride depletion was observed on the peak EC day for almost a half of the fires examined. Size-resolved measurements during two specific fires at a coastal California site revealed significant chloride reductions for particle aerodynamic diameters between 1 and 10 μm.