Wind-driven rain and its implications for natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzen, Miriam; Iserloh, Thomas; de Lima, João L. M. P.; Fister, Wolfgang; Ries, Johannes B.

2017-04-01

Prediction and risk assessment of hydrological extremes are great challenges. Following climate predictions, frequent and violent rainstorms will become a new hazard to several regions in the medium term. Particularly agricultural soils will be severely threatened due to the combined action of heavy rainfall and accompanying winds on bare soil surfaces. Basing on the general underestimation of the effect of wind on rain erosion, conventional soil erosion measurements and modeling approaches lack related information to adequately calculate its impact. The presented experimental-empirical approach shows the powerful impact of wind on the erosive potential of rain. The tested soils had properties that characterise three different environments 1. Silty loam of semi-arid Mediterranean dryfarming and fallow, 2. clayey loam of humid agricultural sites and 3. cohesionless sandy substrates as found at coasts, dune fields and drift-sand areas. Erosion was found to increase by a factor of 1.3 to 7.1, depending on site characteristics. Complementary tests with a laboratory procedure were used to quantify explicitly the effect of wind on raindrop erosion as well as the influence of substrate, surface structure and slope on particle displacement. These tests confirmed the impact of wind-driven rain on total erosion rates to be of great importance when compared to all other tested factors. To successfully adapt soil erosion models to near-future challenges of climate change induced rain storms, wind-driven rain is supposed to be introduced into the hazard management agenda.

Assessment of the Effects of Entrainment and Wind Shear on Nuclear Cloud Rise Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zalewski, Daniel; Jodoin, Vincent

2001-04-01

Accurate modeling of nuclear cloud rise is critical in hazard prediction following a nuclear detonation. This thesis recommends improvements to the model currently used by DOD. It considers a single-term versus a three-term entrainment equation, the value of the entrainment and eddy viscous drag parameters, as well as the effect of wind shear in the cloud rise following a nuclear detonation. It examines departures from the 1979 version of the Department of Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) with the current code used in the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) code version 3.2. The recommendation for a single-term entrainment equation, with constant value parameters, without wind shear corrections, and without cloud oscillations is based on both a statistical analysis using 67 U.S. nuclear atmospheric test shots and the physical representation of the modeling. The statistical analysis optimized the parameter values of interest for four cases: the three-term entrainment equation with wind shear and without wind shear as well as the single-term entrainment equation with and without wind shear. The thesis then examines the effect of cloud oscillations as a significant departure in the code. Modifications to user input atmospheric tables are identified as a potential problem in the calculation of stabilized cloud dimensions in HPAC.

Turbulence Hazard Metric Based on Peak Accelerations for Jetliner Passengers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Eric C.

2005-01-01

Calculations are made of the approximate hazard due to peak normal accelerations of an airplane flying through a simulated vertical wind field associated with a convective frontal system. The calculations are based on a hazard metric developed from a systematic application of a generic math model to 1-cosine discrete gusts of various amplitudes and gust lengths. The math model simulates the three degree-of- freedom longitudinal rigid body motion to vertical gusts and includes (1) fuselage flexibility, (2) the lag in the downwash from the wing to the tail, (3) gradual lift effects, (4) a simplified autopilot, and (5) motion of an unrestrained passenger in the rear cabin. Airplane and passenger response contours are calculated for a matrix of gust amplitudes and gust lengths. The airplane response contours are used to develop an approximate hazard metric of peak normal accelerations as a function of gust amplitude and gust length. The hazard metric is then applied to a two-dimensional simulated vertical wind field of a convective frontal system. The variations of the hazard metric with gust length and airplane heading are demonstrated.

A Probabilistic Typhoon Risk Model for Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haseemkunju, A.; Smith, D. F.; Brolley, J. M.

2017-12-01

Annually, the coastal Provinces of low-lying Mekong River delta region in the southwest to the Red River Delta region in Northern Vietnam is exposed to severe wind and flood risk from landfalling typhoons. On average, about two to three tropical cyclones with a maximum sustained wind speed of >=34 knots make landfall along the Vietnam coast. Recently, Typhoon Wutip (2013) crossed Central Vietnam as a category 2 typhoon causing significant damage to properties. As tropical cyclone risk is expected to increase with increase in exposure and population growth along the coastal Provinces of Vietnam, insurance/reinsurance, and capital markets need a comprehensive probabilistic model to assess typhoon risk in Vietnam. In 2017, CoreLogic has expanded the geographical coverage of its basin-wide Western North Pacific probabilistic typhoon risk model to estimate the economic and insured losses from landfalling and by-passing tropical cyclones in Vietnam. The updated model is based on 71 years (1945-2015) of typhoon best-track data and 10,000 years of a basin-wide simulated stochastic tracks covering eight countries including Vietnam. The model is capable of estimating damage from wind, storm surge and rainfall flooding using vulnerability models, which relate typhoon hazard to building damageability. The hazard and loss models are validated against past historical typhoons affecting Vietnam. Notable typhoons causing significant damage in Vietnam are Lola (1993), Frankie (1996), Xangsane (2006), and Ketsana (2009). The central and northern coastal provinces of Vietnam are more vulnerable to wind and flood hazard, while typhoon risk in the southern provinces are relatively low.

77 FR 24505 - Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-24

...] Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings AGENCY... for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings. DATES: Comments must be received by... property from hazards and their effects. One such activity is the implementation of wind retrofit projects...

Automated source term and wind parameter estimation for atmospheric transport and dispersion applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieringer, Paul E.; Rodriguez, Luna M.; Vandenberghe, Francois; Hurst, Jonathan G.; Bieberbach, George; Sykes, Ian; Hannan, John R.; Zaragoza, Jake; Fry, Richard N.

2015-12-01

Accurate simulations of the atmospheric transport and dispersion (AT&D) of hazardous airborne materials rely heavily on the source term parameters necessary to characterize the initial release and meteorological conditions that drive the downwind dispersion. In many cases the source parameters are not known and consequently based on rudimentary assumptions. This is particularly true of accidental releases and the intentional releases associated with terrorist incidents. When available, meteorological observations are often not representative of the conditions at the location of the release and the use of these non-representative meteorological conditions can result in significant errors in the hazard assessments downwind of the sensors, even when the other source parameters are accurately characterized. Here, we describe a computationally efficient methodology to characterize both the release source parameters and the low-level winds (eg. winds near the surface) required to produce a refined downwind hazard. This methodology, known as the Variational Iterative Refinement Source Term Estimation (STE) Algorithm (VIRSA), consists of a combination of modeling systems. These systems include a back-trajectory based source inversion method, a forward Gaussian puff dispersion model, a variational refinement algorithm that uses both a simple forward AT&D model that is a surrogate for the more complex Gaussian puff model and a formal adjoint of this surrogate model. The back-trajectory based method is used to calculate a ;first guess; source estimate based on the available observations of the airborne contaminant plume and atmospheric conditions. The variational refinement algorithm is then used to iteratively refine the first guess STE parameters and meteorological variables. The algorithm has been evaluated across a wide range of scenarios of varying complexity. It has been shown to improve the source parameters for location by several hundred percent (normalized by the distance from source to the closest sampler), and improve mass estimates by several orders of magnitude. Furthermore, it also has the ability to operate in scenarios with inconsistencies between the wind and airborne contaminant sensor observations and adjust the wind to provide a better match between the hazard prediction and the observations.

Model predictions of wind and turbulence profiles associated with an ensemble of aircraft accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, G. G.; Lewellen, W. S.; Teske, M. E.

1977-01-01

The feasibility of predicting conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist is studied by examining a number of different accidents in detail. A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to reconstruct wind and turbulence profiles which may have existed at low altitudes at the time of the accidents. The predictions are consistent with available flight recorder data, but neither the input boundary conditions nor the flight recorder observations are sufficiently precise for these studies to be interpreted as verification tests of the model predictions.

Dynamic Federalism and Wind Farm Siting

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-18

drawbacks, however. Among these, the mechanical and electromagnetic properties of wind turbines pose significant hazards and complications to U.S...have drawbacks, however. Among these, the mechanical and electromagnetic properties of wind turbines pose significant hazards and complications to...benefits. Wind energy conversion systems are no exception. Wind power systems use elevated turbines to capture mechanical energy from the wind

Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

PubMed

Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

2007-08-15

In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of simulated losses for this specific storm is very similar to historic loss reports. A comparison of wind gust speeds with simulated storm losses for all highly damaging winter storms in Switzerland since the late 19th century considered in this study shows that storm losses have been related primarily to population density (and distribution of values at risk, respectively) rather than hazardous wind speed.

Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kennedy, R.P.; Short, S.A.; McDonald, J.R.

1990-06-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards atmore » each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs.« less

Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

PubMed

Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

2012-02-01

As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components.

Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields*

PubMed Central

Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

2013-01-01

As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components. PMID:24353452

Statistical Maps of Ground Magnetic Disturbance Derived from Global Geospace Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigler, E. J.; Wiltberger, M. J.; Love, J. J.

2017-12-01

Electric currents in space are the principal driver of magnetic variations measured at Earth's surface. These in turn induce geoelectric fields that present a natural hazard for technological systems like high-voltage power distribution networks. Modern global geospace models can reasonably simulate large-scale geomagnetic response to solar wind variations, but they are less successful at deterministic predictions of intense localized geomagnetic activity that most impacts technological systems on the ground. Still, recent studies have shown that these models can accurately reproduce the spatial statistical distributions of geomagnetic activity, suggesting that their physics are largely correct. Since the magnetosphere is a largely externally driven system, most model-measurement discrepancies probably arise from uncertain boundary conditions. So, with realistic distributions of solar wind parameters to establish its boundary conditions, we use the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) geospace model to build a synthetic multivariate statistical model of gridded ground magnetic disturbance. From this, we analyze the spatial modes of geomagnetic response, regress on available measurements to fill in unsampled locations on the grid, and estimate the global probability distribution of extreme magnetic disturbance. The latter offers a prototype geomagnetic "hazard map", similar to those used to characterize better-known geophysical hazards like earthquakes and floods.

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick

2017-01-01

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

Wind Shear/Turbulence Inputs to Flight Simulation and Systems Certification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowles, Roland L. (Editor); Frost, Walter (Editor)

1987-01-01

The purpose of the workshop was to provide a forum for industry, universities, and government to assess current status and likely future requirements for application of flight simulators to aviation safety concerns and system certification issues associated with wind shear and atmospheric turbulence. Research findings presented included characterization of wind shear and turbulence hazards based on modeling efforts and quantitative results obtained from field measurement programs. Future research thrusts needed to maximally exploit flight simulators for aviation safety application involving wind shear and turbulence were identified. The conference contained sessions on: Existing wind shear data and simulator implementation initiatives; Invited papers regarding wind shear and turbulence simulation requirements; and Committee working session reports.

Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boilley, A.; Mahfouf, J.-F.

2013-09-01

The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating an horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Wind shear over the Nice Côte d'Azur airport: case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boilley, A.; Mahfouf, J.-F.

2013-04-01

The Nice Côte d'Azur international airport is subject to horizontal low-level wind shears. Detecting and predicting these hazards is a major concern for aircraft security. A measurement campaign took place over the Nice airport in 2009 including 4 anemometers, 1 wind lidar and 1 wind profiler. Two wind shear events were observed during this measurement campaign. Numerical simulations were carried out with Meso-NH in a configuration compatible with near-real time applications to determine the ability of the numerical model to predict these events and to study the meteorological situations generating a horizontal wind shear. A comparison between numerical simulation and the observation dataset is conducted in this paper.

Explosion impacts during transport of hazardous cargo: GIS-based characterization of overpressure impacts and delineation of flammable zones for ammonia.

PubMed

Inanloo, Bahareh; Tansel, Berrin

2015-06-01

The aim of this research was to investigate accidental releases of ammonia followed by an en-route incident in an attempt to further predict the consequences of hazardous cargo accidents. The air dispersion model Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) was employed to track the probable outcomes of a hazardous material release of a tanker truck under different explosion scenarios. The significance of identification of the flammable zones was taken into consideration; in case the flammable vapor causes an explosion. The impacted areas and the severity of the probable destructions were evaluated for an explosion by considering the overpressure waves. ALOHA in conjunction with ArcGIS was used to delineate the flammable and overpressure impact zones for different scenarios. Based on the results, flammable fumes were formed in oval shapes having a chief axis along the wind direction at the time of release. The expansions of the impact areas under the overpressure value which can lead to property damage for 2 and 20 tons releases, under very stable and unstable atmospheric conditions were estimated to be around 1708, 1206; 3742, 3527 feet, respectively, toward the wind direction. A sensitivity analysis was done to assess the significance of wind speed on the impact zones. The insight provided by this study can be utilized by decision makers in transportation of hazardous materials as a guide for possible rerouting, rescheduling, or limiting the quantity of hazardous cargo to reduce the possible impacts after hazardous cargo accidents during transport. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of severe atmospheric disturbances from airline flight records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wingrove, R. C.; Bach, R. E., Jr.; Schultz, T. A.

1989-01-01

Advanced methods were developed to determine time varying winds and turbulence from digital flight data recorders carried aboard modern airliners. Analysis of several cases involving severe clear air turbulence encounters at cruise altitudes has shown that the aircraft encountered vortex arrays generated by destabilized wind shear layers above mountains or thunderstorms. A model was developed to identify the strength, size, and spacing of vortex arrays. This model is used to study the effects of severe wind hazards on operational safety for different types of aircraft. The study demonstrates that small remotely piloted vehicles and executive aircraft exhibit more violent behavior than do large airliners during encounters with high-altitude vortices. Analysis of digital flight data from the accident at Dallas/Ft. Worth in 1985 indicates that the aircraft encountered a microburst with rapidly changing winds embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. A multiple-vortex-ring model was developed to represent the microburst wind pattern. This model can be used in flight simulators to better understand the control problems in severe microburst encounters.

Numerical modeling on air quality in an urban environment with changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F

2013-06-01

Due to heavy traffic emissions within an urban environment, air quality during the last decade becomes worse year by year and hazard to public health. In the present work, numerical modeling of flow and dispersion of gaseous emissions from vehicle exhaust in a street canyon were investigated under changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction. The three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model which was numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The diffusion flow field in the atmospheric boundary layer within the street canyon was studied for different aspect ratios (W/H=1/2, 3/4, and 1) and wind directions (θ=90°, 112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°). The numerical models were validated against wind tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The numerical results agreed well with the wind tunnel results. The simulation demonstrated that the minimum concentration at the human respiration height within the street canyon was on the windward side for aspect ratios W/H=1/2 and 1 and wind directions θ=112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°. The pollutant concentration level decreases as the wind direction and aspect ratio increase. The wind velocity and turbulence intensity increase as the aspect ratio and wind direction increase.

Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prescott, Steven; Smith, Curtis; Hess, Stephen

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP and other operational NPP experience, there is an identified need to better characterize and evaluate the potential impacts of externally generated hazards on NPP safety. Due to the ubiquitous occurrence of high winds around the world and the possible extreme magnitude of the hazard that has been observed, the assessment of the impact of the high-winds hazard has been identified as an important activity by both NPP owner-operators and regulatory authorities. However, recent experience obtained from the conduct of high-winds risk assessments indicates that such activities have beenmore » both labor-intensive and expensive to perform. Additionally, the existing suite of methods and tools to conduct such assessments (which were developed decades ago) do not make use of modern computational architectures (e.g., parallel processing, object-oriented programming techniques, or simple user interfaces) or methods (e.g., efficient and robust numerical-solution schemes). As a result, the current suite of methods and tools will rapidly become obsolete. Physics-based 3D simulation methods can provide information to assist in the RISMC PRA methodology. This research is intended to determine what benefits SPH methods could bring to high-winds simulations for the purposes of assessing their potential impact on NPP safety. The initial investigation has determined that SPH can simulate key areas of high-wind events with reasonable accuracy, compared to other methods. Some problems, such as simulation voids, need to be addressed, but possible solutions have been identified and will be tested with continued work. This work also demonstrated that SPH simulations can provide a means for simulating debris movement; however, further investigations into the capability to determine the impact of high winds and the impacts of wind-driven debris that lead to SSC failures need to be done. SPH simulations alone would be limited in size and computation time. An advanced method of combing results from grid-based methods with SPH through a data-driven model is proposed. This method could allow for more accurate simulation of particle movement near rigid bodies even with larger SPH particle sizes. If successful, the data-driven model would eliminate the need for a SPH turbulence model and increase the simulation domain size. Continued research beyond the scope of this project will be needed in order to determine the viability of a data-driven model.« less

Simulations of wind erosion along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in north-central Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yingsha; Gao, Yanhong; Dong, Zhibao; Liu, Benli; Zhao, Lin

2018-06-01

Wind erosion along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway causes sand hazard and poses threats to the safety of trains and passengers. A coupled land-surface erosion model (Noah-MPWE) was developed to simulate the wind erosion along the railway. Comparison with the data from the 137Cs isotope analysis shows that this coupled model could simulate the mean erosion amount reasonably. The coupled model was then applied to eight sites along the railway to investigate the wind-erosion distribution and variations from 1979 to 2012. Factors affecting wind erosion spatially and temporally were assessed as well. Majority wind erosion occurs in the non-monsoon season from December to April of the next year except for the site located in desert. The region between Wudaoliang and Tanggula has higher wind erosion occurrences and soil lose amount because of higher frequency of strong wind and relatively lower soil moisture than other sites. Inter-annually, all sites present a significant decreasing trend of annual soil loss with an average rate of -0.18 kg m-2 a-1 in 1979-2012. Decreased frequency of strong wind, increased precipitation and soil moisture contribute to the reduction of wind erosion in 1979-2012. Snow cover duration and vegetation coverage also have great impact on the occurrence of wind erosion.

Perceived Risk and Response to the Wind Turbine Ice Throw Hazard: Comparing Community Stakeholders and Operations and Maintenance Personnel in Two Regions of Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Greg

Risk managers who work directly with wind energy know that accumulations of ice on wind turbine blades pose a substantial risk to wind farm employees and a lesser extent to the general public. However, overall, the hazards of ice throw are not generally known to the public, as there has not been a significant event in the U.S. which has drawn any media attention. As we continue to install more and more turbines, the number of people exposed greatly increases, and it is only a matter of time before the industry suffers a severe incident or even a fatality. Thus, the goals of this research were threefold: 1) to understand the extent to which two at-risk groups--community stakeholders as well as operations and maintenance personnel at wind farms might differ in their perceived levels of risk to the ice throw hazard; 2) to understand the degree to which community stakeholders and operations and maintenance might differ on choosing measures of protection for their affected areas; and 3) to improve safety by identifying protective measures that all stakeholders--community citizens, wind farm employees, contractors, and land owners--are willing to undertake to mitigate their risk against the ice throw hazard which includes adopting measures to reduce their own risk toward the hazard, as well as, their community's vulnerability toward the hazards and threat of ice throw from wind turbines. This research also makes a valuable contribution to the theoretical body of risk research with respect to a technological hazard for which little is known. This research found that the two groups differed on statistically significant variables for observed risk, perceived personal risk, risk to the community, levels of trust in safety leaders, best protective actions, and preferred warning systems; however, there was no statistical significance between the groups on perceived benefits of wind energy.

Simulation investigation of the effect of the NASA Ames 80-by 120-foot wind tunnel exhaust flow on light aircraft operating in the Moffett field trafffic pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Streeter, Barry G.

1986-01-01

A preliminary study of the exhaust flow from the Ames Research Center 80 by 120 Foot Wind Tunnel indicated that the flow might pose a hazard to low-flying light aircraft operating in the Moffett Field traffic pattern. A more extensive evaluation of the potential hazard was undertaken using a fixed-base, piloted simulation of a light, twin-engine, general-aviation aircraft. The simulated aircraft was flown through a model of the wind tunnel exhaust by pilots of varying experience levels to develop a data base of aircraft and pilot reactions. It is shown that a light aircraft would be subjected to a severe disturbance which, depending upon entry condition and pilot reaction, could result in a low-altitude stall or cause damage to the aircraft tail structure.

Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons Based on Solar Wind Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Barker, A.; Burin Des Roziers, E.

2003-12-01

Relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere are of considerable practical importance because of their effect on spacecraft and because of their radiation hazard to astronauts who perform extravehicular activity. The good correlation between solar wind velocity and MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit has long been established. We have developed a radial diffusion model, using solar wind parameters as the only input, to reproduce the variation of the MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit. Based on this model, we have constructed a real-time model that forecasts one to two days in advance the daily averaged >2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit using real-time solar wind data from ACE. The forecasts from this model are available on the web in real time. A natural extension of our current model is to create a system for making quantitative forecasts and specifications of radiation belt electrons at different radial distances and different local times based on the solar wind conditions. The successes and obstacles associated with this extension will be discussed in this presentation.

Characteristics of a dry, pulsating microburst at Denver Stapleton Airport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Proctor, Fred H.

1994-01-01

This study examines the influence of ambient vertical wind shear on microburst intensity, asymmetry, and translation. Results show that microburst asymmetry is influenced by the magnitude of the low-level ambient vertical shear. The microburst outflow elongates in the direction of the shear vector (which is not necessarily in the direction of translation), and generates the greatest hazard (for commercial jet transports) along paths orthogonal to the shear vector. The model results also show that the asymmetry increases with increasing shear magnitude. One implication of these results concerns the detection of a microburst by a ground-based doppler systems. These systems may underestimate the hazard for landing and departing aircraft that are on trajectories orthogonal to both the sensor beam and shear vector, especially if the magnitude of the shear is large. Another implication is that microburst are more likely to be asymmetrical in regions (seasons) where there is climatologically a significant low-level shear. The model results also show that the rotor microbursts and severe wind damage can be a product of the microburst interaction with strong ambient wind shear.

The Impact of Natural Hazards such as Turbulent Wind Gusts on the Wind Energy Conversion Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, M.; Hölling, M.; Milan, P.; Morales, A.; Peinke, J.

2012-12-01

Wind turbines operate in the atmospheric boundary layer, where they are exposed to wind gusts and other types of natural hazards. As the response time of wind turbines is typically in the range of seconds, they are affected by the small scale intermittent properties of the turbulent wind. We show evidence that basic features which are known for small-scale homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and in particular the well-known intermittency problem, have an important impact on the wind energy conversion process. Intermittent statistics include high probabilities of extreme events which can be related to wind gusts and other types of natural hazards. As a summarizing result we find that atmospheric turbulence imposes its intermittent features on the complete wind energy conversion process. Intermittent turbulence features are not only present in atmospheric wind, but are also dominant in the loads on the turbine, i.e. rotor torque and thrust, and in the electrical power output signal. We conclude that profound knowledge of turbulent statistics and the application of suitable numerical as well as experimental methods are necessary to grasp these unique features and quantify their effects on all stages of wind energy conversion.

Morpheus Lander Roll Control System and Wind Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gambone, Elisabeth A.

2014-01-01

The Morpheus prototype lander is a testbed capable of vertical takeoff and landing developed by NASA Johnson Space Center to assess advanced space technologies. Morpheus completed a series of flight tests at Kennedy Space Center to demonstrate autonomous landing and hazard avoidance for future exploration missions. As a prototype vehicle being tested in Earth's atmosphere, Morpheus requires a robust roll control system to counteract aerodynamic forces. This paper describes the control algorithm designed that commands jet firing and delay times based on roll orientation. Design, analysis, and testing are supported using a high fidelity, 6 degree-of-freedom simulation of vehicle dynamics. This paper also details the wind profiles generated using historical wind data, which are necessary to validate the roll control system in the simulation environment. In preparation for Morpheus testing, the wind model was expanded to create day-of-flight wind profiles based on data delivered by Kennedy Space Center. After the test campaign, a comparison of flight and simulation performance was completed to provide additional model validation.

Designsafe-Ci a Cyberinfrastructure for Natural Hazard Simulation and Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, C.; Rathje, E.; Stanzione, D.; Padgett, J.; Pinelli, J. P.

2017-12-01

DesignSafe is the web-based research platform of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) network that provides the computational tools needed to manage and analyze critical data for natural hazards research, with wind and storm surge related hazards being a primary focus. One of the simulation tools under DesignSafe is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model, a coastal ocean model used in storm surge analysis. ADCIRC is an unstructured, finite element model with high resolution capabilities for studying storm surge impacts, and has long been used in storm surge hind-casting and forecasting. In this talk, we will demonstrate the use of ADCIRC within the DesignSafe platform and its use for forecasting Hurricane Harvey. We will also demonstrate how to analyze, visualize and archive critical storm surge related data within DesignSafe.

Performance of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating offshore wind and wind potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulkarni, Sumeet; Deo, M. C.; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-03-01

This study is oriented towards quantification of the skill addition by regional climate models (RCMs) in the parent general circulation models (GCMs) while simulating wind speed and wind potential with particular reference to the Indian offshore region. To arrive at a suitable reference dataset, the performance of wind outputs from three different reanalysis datasets is evaluated. The comparison across the RCMs and their corresponding parent GCMs is done on the basis of annual/seasonal wind statistics, intermodel bias, wind climatology, and classes of wind potential. It was observed that while the RCMs could simulate spatial variability of winds, well for certain subregions, they generally failed to replicate the overall spatial pattern, especially in monsoon and winter. Various causes of biases in RCMs were determined by assessing corresponding maps of wind vectors, surface temperature, and sea-level pressure. The results highlight the necessity to carefully assess the RCM-yielded winds before using them for sensitive applications such as coastal vulnerability and hazard assessment. A supplementary outcome of this study is in form of wind potential atlas, based on spatial distribution of wind classes. This could be beneficial in suitably identifying viable subregions for developing offshore wind farms by intercomparing both the RCM and GCM outcomes. It is encouraging that most of the RCMs and GCMs indicate that around 70% of the Indian offshore locations in monsoon would experience mean wind potential greater than 200 W/m2.

Robust Kalman filter design for predictive wind shear detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stratton, Alexander D.; Stengel, Robert F.

1991-01-01

Severe, low-altitude wind shear is a threat to aviation safety. Airborne sensors under development measure the radial component of wind along a line directly in front of an aircraft. In this paper, optimal estimation theory is used to define a detection algorithm to warn of hazardous wind shear from these sensors. To achieve robustness, a wind shear detection algorithm must distinguish threatening wind shear from less hazardous gustiness, despite variations in wind shear structure. This paper presents statistical analysis methods to refine wind shear detection algorithm robustness. Computational methods predict the ability to warn of severe wind shear and avoid false warning. Comparative capability of the detection algorithm as a function of its design parameters is determined, identifying designs that provide robust detection of severe wind shear.

A wind turbine hybrid simulation framework considering aeroelastic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Wei; Su, Weihua

2015-04-01

In performing an effective structural analysis for wind turbine, the simulation of turbine aerodynamic loads is of great importance. The interaction between the wake flow and the blades may impact turbine blades loading condition, energy yield and operational behavior. Direct experimental measurement of wind flow field and wind profiles around wind turbines is very helpful to support the wind turbine design. However, with the growth of the size of wind turbines for higher energy output, it is not convenient to obtain all the desired data in wind-tunnel and field tests. In this paper, firstly the modeling of dynamic responses of large-span wind turbine blades will consider nonlinear aeroelastic effects. A strain-based geometrically nonlinear beam formulation will be used for the basic structural dynamic modeling, which will be coupled with unsteady aerodynamic equations and rigid-body rotations of the rotor. Full wind turbines can be modeled by using the multi-connected beams. Then, a hybrid simulation experimental framework is proposed to potentially address this issue. The aerodynamic-dominant components, such as the turbine blades and rotor, are simulated as numerical components using the nonlinear aeroelastic model; while the turbine tower, where the collapse of failure may occur under high level of wind load, is simulated separately as the physical component. With the proposed framework, dynamic behavior of NREL's 5MW wind turbine blades will be studied and correlated with available numerical data. The current work will be the basis of the authors' further studies on flow control and hazard mitigation on wind turbine blades and towers.

Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review for Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, Elizabeth J.; Dewart, Jean Marie; Deola, Regina

This report provides site-specific return level analyses for rain, snow, and straight-line wind extreme events. These analyses are in support of the 10-year review plan for the assessment of meteorological natural phenomena hazards at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses follow guidance from Department of Energy, DOE Standard, Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design Criteria for DOE Facilities (DOE-STD-1020-2012), Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, 2007) and ANSI/ ANS-2.3-2011, Estimating Tornado, Hurricane, and Extreme Straight-Line Wind Characteristics at Nuclear Facility Sites. LANL precipitation and snow level data have been collected since 1910, although not all years are complete.more » In this report the results from the more recent data (1990–2014) are compared to those of past analyses and a 2004 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration report. Given the many differences in the data sets used in these different analyses, the lack of statistically significant differences in return level estimates increases confidence in the data and in the modeling and analysis approach.« less

Ecological restoration and recovery in the wind-blown sand hazard areas of northern China: relationship between soil water and carrying capacity for vegetation in the Tengger Desert.

PubMed

Li, XingRong; Zhang, ZhiShan; Tan, HuiJuan; Gao, YanHong; Liu, LiChao; Wang, XingPing

2014-05-01

The main prevention and control area for wind-blown sand hazards in northern China is about 320000 km(2) in size and includes sandlands to the east of the Helan Mountain and sandy deserts and desert-steppe transitional regions to the west of the Helan Mountain. Vegetation recovery and restoration is an important and effective approach for constraining wind-blown sand hazards in these areas. After more than 50 years of long-term ecological studies in the Shapotou region of the Tengger Desert, we found that revegetation changed the hydrological processes of the original sand dune system through the utilization and space-time redistribution of soil water. The spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water was significantly related to the dynamics of the replanted vegetation for a given regional precipitation condition. The long-term changes in hydrological processes in desert areas also drive replanted vegetation succession. The soil water carrying capacity of vegetation and the model for sand fixation by revegetation in aeolian desert areas where precipitation levels are less than 200 mm are also discussed.

The international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the coastal hazards symposium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Swail, Val; Babanin, Alexander V.; Horsburgh, Kevin

2015-05-01

Following the 13th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 4th Coastal Hazards Symposium in October 2013 in Banff, Canada, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here, we give a brief overview of the history of the conference since its inception in 1986 and of the progress made in the fields of wind-generated ocean waves and the modelling of coastal hazards before we summarize the main results of the papers that have appeared in the topical collection.

A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

Forecasting for a Remote Island: A Class Exercise.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riordan, Allen J.

2003-06-01

Students enrolled in a satellite meteorology course at North Carolina State University, Raleigh, recently had an unusual opportunity to apply their forecast skills to predict wind and weather conditions for a remote site in the Southern Hemisphere. For about 40 days starting in early February 2001, students used satellite and model guidance to develop forecasts to support a research team stationed on Bouvet Island (54°26S, 3°24E). Internet products together with current output from NCEP's Aviation (AVN) model supported the activity. Wind forecasts were of particular interest to the Bouvet team because violent winds often developed unexpectedly and posed a safety hazard.Results were encouraging in that 24-h wind speed forecasts showed reasonable reliability over a wide range of wind speeds. Forecasts for 48 h showed only marginal skill, however. Two critical events were well forecasted-the major February storm with wind speeds of over 120 kt and a brief calm period following several days of strong winds in early March. The latter forecast proved instrumental in recovering the research team.

Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

PubMed

Klima, Kelly; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris

2012-01-17

We investigate tropical cyclone wind and storm surge damage reduction for five areas along the Miami-Dade County coastline either by hardening buildings or by the hypothetical application of wind-wave pumps to modify storms. We calculate surge height and wind speed as functions of return period and sea surface temperature reduction by wind-wave pumps. We then estimate costs and economic losses with the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on property at risk. All areas experience more surge damages for short return periods, and more wind damages for long periods. The return period at which the dominating hazard component switches depends on location. We also calculate the seasonal expected fraction of control damage for different scenarios to reduce damages. Surge damages are best reduced through a surge barrier. Wind damages are best reduced by a portfolio of techniques that, assuming they work and are correctly deployed, include wind-wave pumps.

Turbulent transport model of wind shear in thunderstorm gust fronts and warm fronts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewellen, W. S.; Teske, M. E.; Segur, H. C. O.

1978-01-01

A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer was used to simulate the low-level wind and turbulence profiles associated with both local thunderstorm gust fronts and synoptic-scale warm fronts. Dimensional analyses of both type fronts provided the physical scaling necessary to permit normalized simulations to represent fronts for any temperature jump. The sensitivity of the thunderstorm gust front to five different dimensionless parameters as well as a change from axisymmetric to planar geometry was examined. The sensitivity of the warm front to variations in the Rossby number was examined. Results of the simulations are discussed in terms of the conditions which lead to wind shears which are likely to be most hazardous for aircraft operations.

Use of Citizen Science and Social Media to Improve Wind Hazard and Damage Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, F.; Meidani, H.

2017-12-01

Windstorm losses are significant in the U.S. annually and cause damage worldwide. A large percentage of losses are caused by localized events (e.g., tornadoes). In order to better mitigate these losses improvement is needed in understanding the hazard characteristics and physical damage. However, due to the small-scale nature of these events the resolution of the dedicated measuring network does not capture most occurrences. As a result damage-based assessments are sometimes used to gauge intensity. These damage assessments often suffer from a lack of available manpower, inability to arrive at the scene rapidly and difficulty accessing a damaged site. The use and rapid dissemination of social media, the power of crowds engaged in scientific endeavors, and the public's awareness of their vulnerabilities point to a paradigm shift in how hazards can be sensed in a rapid manner. In this way, `human-sensor' data has the potential to radically improve fundamental understanding of hazard and disasters and resolve some of the existing challenges in wind hazard and damage characterization. Data from social media outlets such as Twitter have been used to aid in damage assessments from hazards such as flood and earthquake, however, the reliability and uncertainty of participatory sensing has been questioned and has been called the `biggest challenge' for its sustained use. This research proposes to investigate the efficacy of both citizen science applications and social media data to represent wind hazards and associated damage. Research has focused on a two-phase approach: 1) to have citizen scientists perform their own `damage survey' (i.e., questionnaire) with known damage to assess uncertainty in estimation and 2) downloading and analysis of social media text and imagery streams to ascertain the possibility of performing `unstructured damage surveys'. Early results have shown that the untrained public can estimate tornado damage levels in residential structures with some accuracy. In addition, valuable windstorm hazard and damage information in both text and imagery can be extracted and archived from Twitter in an automated fashion. Information extracted from these sources will feed into advances in hazard and disaster modeling, social-cognitive theories of human behavior and decision-making for hazard mitigation.

Study of dispersed small wind systems interconnected with a utility distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtice, D.; Patton, J.; Bohn, J.; Sechan, N.

1980-03-01

Operating problems for various penetrations of small wind systems connected to the distribution system on a utility are defined. Protection equipment, safety hazards, feeder voltage regulation, line losses, and voltage flicker problems are studied, assuming different small wind systems connected to an existing distribution system. To identify hardware deficiencies, possible solutions provided by off-the-shelf hardware and equipment are assessed. Results of the study indicate that existing techniques are inadequate for detecting isolated operation of a small wind system. Potential safety hazards posed by small wind systems are adequately handled by present work procedures although these procedures require a disconnect device at synchronous generator and self commutated inverter small wind systems.

Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, M. D.

2017-12-01

With the advancing threat of Sea Level Rise much of the U. S. is in danger of falling into the "protection gap". Residential property flood risk is not yet covered by the insurance market. Many coastal properties are not paying into the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) at premiums commensurate with the risk. This is exasperated by the program being deep in debt, despite only covering a fraction of the potential loss, while windstorm insurance covers up to replacement value. This results in a battle that benefits nobody. Any significant hurricane will include both wind and storm surge perils at the same time and any coastal property has to contend with the risk of damage by both. If you have extensive flood damage your wind storm policy might deny your claim and your flood policy (if you even have one) will in most cases be constrained to a $250,000 limit. Bring on the litigators! Some homeowners will claim that the wind destroyed the home first and then it was carried away by flood waters or pulverized by waves. Insurers might respond that the storm surge did all the damage and deny the claim. We've seen this already following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Hurricane Ike in 2008, with thousands of litigation claims and a cottage industry of scientists serving as expert witnesses on both sides of the aisle. Congress responded in 2012 with the Coastal Act, which provided an "unfunded mandate" directing NOAA to provide wind and water level data to FEMA for input to their "Coastal Formula" for attributing loss to wind and water. The results of the formula would then limit the amount paid by the NFIP by subtracting out the wind loss portion. The Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) went further by assembling a panel of experts to recommend guidelines for how the state should respond to future hurricane impacting properties on the Texas coast. The expert panel report was released in April of 2016, and TWIA is currently developing a comprehensive operational solution to collect wind and water level measurements, and to conduct observation based modeling of wind and water impacts. My presentation will discuss some of the challenges to wind and water hazard monitoring and modeling.

Estimation of saltation emission in the Kubuqi Desert, North China.

PubMed

Du, Heqiang; Xue, Xian; Wang, Tao

2014-05-01

The Kubuqi Desert suffered more severe wind erosion hazard. Every year, a mass of aeolian sand was blown in the Ten Tributaries that are tributaries of the Yellow River. To estimate the quantity of aeolian sediment blown into the Ten Tributaries from the Kubuqi Desert, it is necessary to simulate the saltation processes of the Kubuqi Desert. A saltation submodel of the IWEMS (Integrated Wind-Erosion Modeling System) and its accompanying RS (Remote Sensing) and GIS (Geographic Information System) methods were used to model saltation emissions in the Kubuqi Desert. To calibrate the saltation submodel, frontal area of vegetation, soil moisture, wind velocity and saltation sediment were observed synchronously on several points in 2011 and 2012. In this study, a model namely BEACH (Bridge Event And Continuous Hydrological) was introduced to simulate the daily soil moisture. Using the surface parameters (frontal area of vegetation and soil moisture) along with the observed wind velocities and saltation sediments for the observed points, the saltation model was calibrated and validated. To reduce the simulate error, a subdaily wind velocity program, WINDGEN was introduced in this model to simulate the hourly wind velocity of the Kubuqi Desert. By incorporating simulated hourly wind velocity, and model variables, the saltation emission of the Kubuqi Desert was modeled. The model results show that the total sediment flow rate was 1-30.99 tons/m over the last 10years (2001-2010). The saltation emission mainly occurs in the north central part of the Kubuqi Desert in winter and spring. Integrating the wind directions, the quantity of the aeolian sediment that deposits in the Ten Tributaries was estimated. Compared with the observed data by the local government and hydrometric stations, our estimation is reasonable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alert generation and cockpit presentation for an integrated microburst alerting system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wanke, Craig; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

1991-01-01

Alert generation and cockpit presentation issues for low level wind shear (microburst) alerts are investigated. Alert generation issues center on the development of a hazard criterion which allows integration of both ground based and airborne wind shear detection systems to form an accurate picture of the aviation hazard posed by a particular wind shear situation. A methodology for the testing of a hazard criteria through flight simulation has been developed, and has been used to examine the effectiveness and feasibility of several possible criteria. Also, an experiment to evaluate candidate graphical cockpit displays for microburst alerts using a piloted simulator has been designed.

Likelihood of a marine vessel accident from wind energy development in the Atlantic: Likelihood of shipping accident from wind energy in the Atlantic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea; Breithaupt, Stephen; Whiting, Jonathan

2015-11-02

Offshore wind energy development is planned for areas off the Atlantic coast. Many of the planned wind development areas fall within traditional commercial vessel routes. In order to mitigate possible hazards to ships and to wind turbines, it is important to understand the potential for increased risk to commercial shipping from the presence of wind farms. Using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, historical shipping routes between ports in the Atlantic were identified, from Maine to the Florida Straits. The AIS data were also used as inputs to a numerical model that can simulate cargo, tanker and tug/towing vessel movement alongmore » typical routes. The model was used to recreate present day vessel movement, as well as to simulate future routing that may be required to avoid wind farms. By comparing the present and future routing of vessels, a risk analysis was carried out to determine the increased marginal risk of vessel collisions, groundings, and allisions with stationary objects, due to the presence of wind farms. The outcome of the analysis showed little increase in vessel collisions or allisions, and a decrease in groundings as more vessels were forced seaward by the wind farms.« less

Historical winter weather assessment for snow fence design using a numerical weather model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-30

Noriaki Ohara, Ph.D., Assistant Professor (0000-0002-7829-0779) : Snow fence is an effective hazard mitigation measure for the low visibility and low friction of the road surface under : winter weather condition. Prevailing wind directions and snow p...

Health hazard prospecting by modeling wind transfer of metal-bearing dust from mining waste dumps: application to Jebel Ressas Pb-Zn-Cd abandoned mining site (Tunisia).

PubMed

Ghorbel, Manel; Munoz, Marguerite; Solmon, Fabien

2014-10-01

This work presents a modeling approach to simulate spatial distribution of metal contamination in aerosols with evaluation of health hazard. This approach offers the advantage to be non-intrusive, less expensive than sampling and laboratory analyses. It was applied to assess the impact of metal-bearing dust from mining wastes on air quality for a nearby community and agricultural lands in Jebel Ressas (Tunisia) locality. Dust emission rates were calculated using existing parameterization adapted to the contamination source composed of mining wastes. Metal concentrations were predicted using a Gaussian model (fugitive dust model) with, as input: emission rates, dump physical parameters and meteorological data measured in situ for 30 days in summertime. Metal concentration maps were built from calculated PM10 particle concentrations. They evidence the areas where Pb and Cd concentrations exceeded WHO guidelines (0.5 and 0.005 µg/m(3), respectively). Maximum concentrations of Pb and Cd in PM10 are, respectively, of 5.74 and 0.0768 µg/m(3) for measured wind speed values up to 22 m/s. Preferential areas of contamination were determined in agricultural lands to the NW from the source dump where Pb and Cd exceeded guidelines up to a distance of 1,200 m. The secondary spreading directions were SW and E, toward the village. Health hazard prospecting shown that a major part of the village was exposed to contaminated dust and that daily hazard quotient (HQ) values reached locally 118 and 158, respectively, for Pb and Cd during the study period. However, HQ variations in the village are high, both temporally and geographically.

78 FR 41436 - Proposed Revision to Treatment of Non-Safety Systems for Passive Advanced Light Water Reactors

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-10

... Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants: LWR Edition,'' on a proposed new section to its... revised position on the treatment of the high winds external hazard for certain RTNSS structures, systems... winds external hazard for certain RTNSS structures, systems and components (SSCs). This position differs...

Field-wind Distribution and Eruption Columns: Colima Volcano, México.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, R.; Martin, A. L.; Perez, I.

2006-12-01

Colima Volcano (19º51'N 103º62'W) is characterized by explosive behaviour. Recently this volcano has shown an increase in explosive activity suggesting the possibility of a subplinian event in the next future like the ones occurred in 1818 and 1913. They were characterized by eruptive columns higher than 20 Km. Considering the possibility of a new explosive event we carried out a wind study based on the radiosonde balloon data set (1980-1995) with 15 atmospheric levels. This data set was collected by Global Gridded Upper Air Statistics (GGUAS) of the European Centre for Médium Range Weather Forecast (ECMRWF). The data was processed with a cinematic model for the study of global atmospheric wind circulation. In this model the current function (vorticity) and a potential function (convergency and/or divergency) was calculated with the Poison equation, utilizing a spectral numeric model. Dominant wind direction in January-May and October-December is toward the East with variations to the East/South East. On the contrary during July-September the dominant wind direction is toward the West, South-West, North-East; East and North-East. The fluctuations related to anticyclonic circulation occur in May, July, September and November at the altitude between 5 and 18 Km. The wind model allows identification of the wind horizontal circulation during the whole year at different atmospheric levels. Moreover, the perturbations of the normal circulation have also been identified. These results are applied to an a ash fall map for ash-fall hazard zonification.

Flight in low-level wind shear

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frost, W.

1983-01-01

Results of studies of wind shear hazard to aircraft operation are summarized. Existing wind shear profiles currently used in computer and flight simulator studies are reviewed. The governing equations of motion for an aircraft are derived incorporating the variable wind effects. Quantitative discussions of the effects of wind shear on aircraft performance are presented. These are followed by a review of mathematical solutions to both the linear and nonlinear forms of the governing equations. Solutions with and without control laws are presented. The application of detailed analysis to develop warning and detection systems based on Doppler radar measuring wind speed along the flight path is given. A number of flight path deterioration parameters are defined and evaluated. Comparison of computer-predicted flight paths with those measured in a manned flight simulator is made. Some proposed airborne and ground-based wind shear hazard warning and detection systems are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of both types of systems are discussed.

Simulating Wake Vortex Detection with the Sensivu Doppler Wind Lidar Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramsey, Dan; Nguyen, Chi

2014-01-01

In support of NASA's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies NRA research topic on Wake Vortex Hazard Investigation, Aerospace Innovations (AI) investigated a set of techniques for detecting wake vortex hazards from arbitrary viewing angles, including axial perspectives. This technical report describes an approach to this problem and presents results from its implementation in a virtual lidar simulator developed at AI. Threedimensional data volumes from NASA's Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) containing strong turbulent vortices were used as the atmospheric domain for these studies, in addition to an analytical vortex model in 3-D space. By incorporating a third-party radiative transfer code (BACKSCAT 4), user-defined aerosol layers can be incorporated into atmospheric models, simulating attenuation and backscatter in different environmental conditions and altitudes. A hazard detection algorithm is described that uses a twocomponent spectral model to identify vortex signatures observable from arbitrary angles.

A probabilistic storm surge risk model for the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabbert, Jan-Henrik; Reiner, Andreas; Deepen, Jan; Rodda, Harvey; Mai, Stephan; Pfeifer, Dietmar

2010-05-01

The German North Sea coast is highly exposed to storm surges. Due to its concave bay-like shape mainly orientated to the North-West, cyclones from Western, North-Western and Northern directions together with astronomical tide cause storm surges accumulating the water in the German bight. Due to the existence of widespread low-lying areas (below 5m above mean sea level) behind the defenses, large areas including large economic values are exposed to coastal flooding including cities like Hamburg or Bremen. The occurrence of extreme storm surges in the past like e.g. in 1962 taking about 300 lives and causing widespread flooding and 1976 raised the awareness and led to a redesign of the coastal defenses which provide a good level of protection for today's conditions. Never the less the risk of flooding exists. Moreover an amplification of storm surge risk can be expected under the influence of climate change. The Baltic Sea coast is also exposed to storm surges, which are caused by other meteorological patterns. The influence of the astronomical tide is quite low instead high water levels are induced by strong winds only. Since the exceptional extreme event in 1872 storm surge hazard has been more or less forgotten. Although such an event is very unlikely to happen, it is not impossible. Storm surge risk is currently (almost) non-insurable in Germany. The potential risk is difficult to quantify as there are almost no historical losses available. Also premiums are difficult to assess. Therefore a new storm surge risk model is being developed to provide a basis for a probabilistic quantification of potential losses from coastal inundation. The model is funded by the GDV (German Insurance Association) and is planned to be used within the German insurance sector. Results might be used for a discussion of insurance cover for storm surge. The model consists of a probabilistic event driven hazard and a vulnerability module, furthermore an exposure interface and a financial module to account for specific (re-) insurance conditions. This contribution will mainly concentrate on the hazard module. The hazard is covered by an event simulation engine enabling Monte Carlo simulations. The event generation is done on-the-fly. A classification of historical storm surges is used based on observed sea water levels at gauging stations and extended literature research. To characterize the origin of storm events and storm surges caused by those, also meteorological parameters like wind speed and wind direction are being used. If high water levels along the coast are mainly caused by strong wind from particular directions as observed at the North Sea, there is a clear empirical relationship between wind and surge (where surge is defined as the wind-driven component of the sea water level) which can be described by the ATWS (Average Transformed Wind speed). The parameters forming the load at the coastal defense elements are water level and wave parameters like significant wave height, wave period and wave direction. To assess the wave characteristics at the coast the numerical model SWAN (Simulating Waves Near Shore) from TU Delft has been used. To account for different probabilities of failure and inundation the coast is split into segments with similar defense characteristics like type of defense, height, width, orientation and others. The chosen approach covers the most relevant failure mechanisms for coastal dikes induced by wave overtopping and overflow. Dune failure is also considered in the model. Inundation of the hinterland after defense failure is modeled using a simple dynamical 2d-approach resulting in distributed water depths and flood outlines for each segment. Losses can be estimated depending on the input exposure data either coordinate based for single buildings or aggregated on postal code level using a set of depths-damage functions.

Profiler Support for Operations at Space Launch Ranges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merceret, Francis; Wilfong, Timothy; Lambert, Winifred; Short, David; Decker, Ryan; Ward, Jennifer

2006-01-01

Accurate vertical wind profiles are essential to successful launch or landing. Wind changes can make it impossible to fly a desired trajectory or avoid dangerous vehicle loads, possibly resulting in loss of mission. Balloons take an hour to generate a profile up to 20 km, but major wind changes can occur in 20 minutes. Wind profilers have the temporal response to detect such last minute hazards. They also measure the winds directly overhead while balloons blow downwind. At the Eastern Range (ER), altitudes from 2 to 20 km are sampled by a 50-MHz profiler every 4 minutes. The surface to 3 km is sampled by five 915-MHz profilers every 15 minutes. The Range Safety office assesses the risk of potential toxic chemical dispersion. They use observational data and model output to estimate the spatial extent and concentration of substances dispersed within the boundary layer. The ER uses 915-MHz profilers as both a real time observation system and as input to dispersion models. The WR has similar plans. Wind profilers support engineering analyses for the Space Shuttle. The 50-IVl11z profiler was used recently to analyze changes in the low frequency wind and low vertical wavenumber content of wind profiles in the 3 to 15 km region of the atmosphere. The 915-MHz profiler network was used to study temporal wind change within the boundary layer.

Wind waves generated by Typhoon Vamei in the southern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, Aboobacker; Tkalich, Pavel; Krishnakumar, Vinod Kumar; Ponnumony, Vethamony

2013-04-01

Typhoon-generated waves are of interest scientifically for understanding wind-wave interaction physics, as well as operationally for predicting potential hazards. The Typhoon Vamei formed in the southern South China Sea (SCS) was one of the rare typhoon events that occurred near the equator. The typhoon developed on 26 Dec 2001 at 1.4°N in the southern SCS, strengthened quickly, made a landfall along the southeast coast of Malaysia and dissipated over Sumatra on 28 Dec 2001. With the wind speeds were as high as 36 m/s in the southern SCS, this event has significantly affected the atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the region. In the present study, we aim at understanding the wind wave characteristics induced by Vamei along the Sunda Shelf and the southeast coast of Malaysia. Wind velocity vectors over the southern SCS have been simulated for 22-30 Dec 2001 using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These winds have been forced in a third generation wave model to compute the wind waves in the affected domain. Simulated significant wave heights reach as high as 7.5m off the southeast coast of Malaysia and 5.8m in the Singapore Strait (SS). Wave propagation from the SCS to the SS is highly noticeable during the typhoon event. Directional distribution and propagation of the Vamei generated waves towards the southeast coast of Malaysia and part of Singapore region have been discussed. Keywords: South China Sea; wind waves; typhoon; numerical modelling; significant wave height.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

40 CFR 265.251 - Protection from wind.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Protection from wind. 265.251 Section... FACILITIES Waste Piles § 265.251 Protection from wind. The owner or operator of a pile containing hazardous waste which could be subject to dispersal by wind must cover or otherwise manage the pile so that wind...

40 CFR 265.251 - Protection from wind.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Protection from wind. 265.251 Section... FACILITIES Waste Piles § 265.251 Protection from wind. The owner or operator of a pile containing hazardous waste which could be subject to dispersal by wind must cover or otherwise manage the pile so that wind...

40 CFR 265.251 - Protection from wind.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Protection from wind. 265.251 Section... FACILITIES Waste Piles § 265.251 Protection from wind. The owner or operator of a pile containing hazardous waste which could be subject to dispersal by wind must cover or otherwise manage the pile so that wind...

40 CFR 265.251 - Protection from wind.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Protection from wind. 265.251 Section... FACILITIES Waste Piles § 265.251 Protection from wind. The owner or operator of a pile containing hazardous waste which could be subject to dispersal by wind must cover or otherwise manage the pile so that wind...

40 CFR 265.251 - Protection from wind.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Protection from wind. 265.251 Section... FACILITIES Waste Piles § 265.251 Protection from wind. The owner or operator of a pile containing hazardous waste which could be subject to dispersal by wind must cover or otherwise manage the pile so that wind...

Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment(GNOME) Version 2.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie; Zanoni, Vicki; Blonski, Slawomir; D'Sa, Eurico; Estep, Lee; Holland, Donald; Moore, Roxzana F.; Pagnutti, Mary; Terrie, Gregory

2004-01-01

NASA's Earth Science Applications Directorate evaluated the potential of NASA remote sensing data and modeling products to enhance the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) decision support tool. NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) Hazardous Materials (HAZMAT) Response Division is interested in enhancing GNOME with near-realtime (NRT) NASA remote sensing products on oceanic winds and ocean circulation. The NASA SeaWinds sea surface wind and Jason-1 sea surface height NRT products have potential, as do sea surface temperature and reflectance products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and sea surface reflectance products from Landsat and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer. HAZMAT is also interested in the Advanced Circulation model and the Ocean General Circulation Model. Certain issues must be considered, including lack of data continuity, marginal data redundancy, and data formatting problems. Spatial resolution is an issue for near-shore GNOME applications. Additional work will be needed to incorporate NASA inputs into GNOME, including verification and validation of data products, algorithms, models, and NRT data.

Estimation of regional differences in wind erosion sensitivity in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezősi, G.; Blanka, V.; Bata, T.; Kovács, F.; Meyer, B.

2015-01-01

In Hungary, wind erosion is one of the most serious natural hazards. Spatial and temporal variation in the factors that determine the location and intensity of wind erosion damage are not well known, nor are the regional and local sensitivities to erosion. Because of methodological challenges, no multi-factor, regional wind erosion sensitivity map is available for Hungary. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the regional differences in wind erosion sensitivity and exposure in Hungary. Wind erosion sensitivity was modelled using the key factors of soil sensitivity, vegetation cover and wind erodibility as proxies. These factors were first estimated separately by factor sensitivity maps and later combined by fuzzy logic into a regional-scale wind erosion sensitivity map. Large areas were evaluated by using publicly available data sets of remotely sensed vegetation information, soil maps and meteorological data on wind speed. The resulting estimates were verified by field studies and examining the economic losses from wind erosion as compensated by the state insurance company. The spatial resolution of the resulting sensitivity map is suitable for regional applications, as identifying sensitive areas is the foundation for diverse land development control measures and implementing management activities.

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, Timothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occured), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, T.; Lanfear, K.J.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method and route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

Wind Shear Modeling for Aircraft Hazard Definition

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-03-01

Fichtl, "Rough to Smooth Transition of an Equilibrium Neutral Constant Stress Layer," NASA TM X-3322, (1975). 5-36 Geiger, Rudolf , The Climate Near the...Roy Steiner , and K. G. Pratt. "Dynamic Response of Airplanes to Atmospheric Turbulence Including Flight Data on Input and Response," NASA TR R-199

Modelling Short-Term Maximum Individual Exposure from Airborne Hazardous Releases in Urban Environments. Part ΙI: Validation of a Deterministic Model with Wind Tunnel Experimental Data.

PubMed

Efthimiou, George C; Bartzis, John G; Berbekar, Eva; Hertwig, Denise; Harms, Frank; Leitl, Bernd

2015-06-26

The capability to predict short-term maximum individual exposure is very important for several applications including, for example, deliberate/accidental release of hazardous substances, odour fluctuations or material flammability level exceedance. Recently, authors have proposed a simple approach relating maximum individual exposure to parameters such as the fluctuation intensity and the concentration integral time scale. In the first part of this study (Part I), the methodology was validated against field measurements, which are governed by the natural variability of atmospheric boundary conditions. In Part II of this study, an in-depth validation of the approach is performed using reference data recorded under truly stationary and well documented flow conditions. For this reason, a boundary-layer wind-tunnel experiment was used. The experimental dataset includes 196 time-resolved concentration measurements which detect the dispersion from a continuous point source within an urban model of semi-idealized complexity. The data analysis allowed the improvement of an important model parameter. The model performed very well in predicting the maximum individual exposure, presenting a factor of two of observations equal to 95%. For large time intervals, an exponential correction term has been introduced in the model based on the experimental observations. The new model is capable of predicting all time intervals giving an overall factor of two of observations equal to 100%.

Wind/Tornado Guidelines Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, D.S.; Holman, G.S.

1991-10-01

This report documents the strategy employed to develop recommended wind/tornado hazard design guidelines for a New Production Reactor (NRP) currently planned for either the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) or the Savannah River (SR) site. The Wind/Tornado Working Group (WTWG), comprising six nationally recognized experts in structural engineering, wind engineering, and meteorology, formulated an independent set of guidelines based on site-specific wind/tornado hazard curves and state-of-the-art tornado missile technology. The basic philosophy was to select realistic wind and missile load specifications, and to meet performance goals by applying conservative structural response evaluation and acceptance criteria. Simplified probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs)more » for wind speeds and missile impact were performed to estimate annual damage risk frequencies for both the INEL and SR sites. These PRAs indicate that the guidelines will lead to facilities that meet the US Department of Energy (DOE) design requirements and that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidelines adopted by the DOE for design are adequate to meet the NPR safety goals.« less

Optimal Control of Hybrid Systems in Air Traffic Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamgarpour, Maryam

Growing concerns over the scalability of air traffic operations, air transportation fuel emissions and prices, as well as the advent of communication and sensing technologies motivate improvements to the air traffic management system. To address such improvements, in this thesis a hybrid dynamical model as an abstraction of the air traffic system is considered. Wind and hazardous weather impacts are included using a stochastic model. This thesis focuses on the design of algorithms for verification and control of hybrid and stochastic dynamical systems and the application of these algorithms to air traffic management problems. In the deterministic setting, a numerically efficient algorithm for optimal control of hybrid systems is proposed based on extensions of classical optimal control techniques. This algorithm is applied to optimize the trajectory of an Airbus 320 aircraft in the presence of wind and storms. In the stochastic setting, the verification problem of reaching a target set while avoiding obstacles (reach-avoid) is formulated as a two-player game to account for external agents' influence on system dynamics. The solution approach is applied to air traffic conflict prediction in the presence of stochastic wind. Due to the uncertainty in forecasts of the hazardous weather, and hence the unsafe regions of airspace for aircraft flight, the reach-avoid framework is extended to account for stochastic target and safe sets. This methodology is used to maximize the probability of the safety of aircraft paths through hazardous weather. Finally, the problem of modeling and optimization of arrival air traffic and runway configuration in dense airspace subject to stochastic weather data is addressed. This problem is formulated as a hybrid optimal control problem and is solved with a hierarchical approach that decouples safety and performance. As illustrated with this problem, the large scale of air traffic operations motivates future work on the efficient implementation of the proposed algorithms.

Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

study, storm surge, tide, waves, wind, atmospheric pressure, and currents were the dominant storm responses computed. The effect of sea level change on...coastal storm hazards and vulnerability nationally (USACE 2015). NACCS goals also included evaluating the effect of future sea level change (SLC) on...the computed high-fidelity responses included storm surge, astronomical tide, waves, wave effects on water levels, storm duration, wind, currents

Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

1991-01-01

Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous weather warnings are studied in the context of wind shear alerts. Operational and developmental wind shear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground based sources (Doppler Radar, Low Level Wind Shear Alert System, and Pilot Reports) are evaluated by means fo pilot opinion surveys and part task simulator studies.

Collapse and pull - down analysis of high voltage electricity transmission towers subjected to cyclonic wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ammar; Arthur, Craig; Edwards, Mark

2010-06-01

Bulk electricity transmission lines are linear assets that can be very exposed to wind effects, particularly where they traverse steep topography or open coastal terrain in cyclonic regions. Interconnected nature of the lattice type towers and conductors also, present complex vulnerabilities. These relate to the direction of wind attack to the conductors and the cascading failure mechanisms in which the failure of a single tower has cascading effects on neighbouring towers. Such behaviour is exacerbated by the finely tuned nature of tower design which serves to minimize cost and reserve strength at design wind speeds. There is a clear need to better quantify the interdependent vulnerabilities of these critical infrastructure assets in the context of the severe wind hazard. This paper presents a novel methodology developed for the Critical Infrastructure Protection Modelling and Analysis (CIPMA) capability for assessing local wind speeds and the likelihood of tower failure for a range of transmission tower and conductor types. CIPMA is a program managed by the Federal Attorney-General's Department and Geoscience Australia is leading the technical development. The methodology then involves the development of heuristically derived vulnerability models that are consistent with Australian industry experience and full-scale static tower testing results, considering isolated tower loss along with three interdependent failure mechanisms to give overall likelihoods of failure.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-12-01

Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.

2013-03-01

Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

Automatic systems and the low-level wind hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaeffer, Dwight R.

1987-01-01

Automatic flight control systems provide means for significantly enhancing survivability in severe wind hazards. The technology required to produce the necessary control algorithms is available and has been made technically feasible by the advent of digital flight control systems and accurate, low-noise sensors, especially strap-down inertial sensors. The application of this technology and these means has not generally been enabled except for automatic landing systems, and even then the potential has not been fully exploited. To fully exploit the potential of automatic systems for enhancing safety in wind hazards requires providing incentives, creating demand, inspiring competition, education, and eliminating prejudicial disincentitives to overcome the economic penalties associated with the extensive and riskly development and certification of these systems. If these changes will come about at all, it will likely be through changes in the regulations provided by the certifying agencies.

75 FR 79312 - Special Conditions: Eurocopter France (ECF) Model EC225LP Helicopter, Installation of a Search...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-20

....923(a)(2), Rotor drive system and control mechanism tests. In addition to the applicable airworthiness... stems from the likelihood of encountering hazards such as inconsistent wave heights, floating debris...-state and wind conditions: (i) Sea-State: Wave height of 2.5 meters (8.2 feet), considering both short...

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and Global Environmental Change, Series No. 2, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2004. [2] Pappenberger F. et al., Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), International Journal of Biometeorology 59(3): 311-323, 2015.

Virtual Research Environments for Natural Hazard Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Napier, Hazel; Aldridge, Tim

2017-04-01

The Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) is a group of 17 collaborating public sector organisations providing a mechanism for co-ordinated advice to government and agencies responsible for civil contingency and emergency response during natural hazard events. The NHP has set up a Hazard Impact Model (HIM) group tasked with modelling the impact of a range of UK hazards with the aim of delivery of consistent hazard and impact information. The HIM group consists of 7 partners initially concentrating on modelling the socio-economic impact of 3 key hazards - surface water flooding, land instability and high winds. HIM group partners share scientific expertise and data within their specific areas of interest including hydrological modelling, meteorology, engineering geology, GIS, data delivery, and modelling of socio-economic impacts. Activity within the NHP relies on effective collaboration between partners distributed across the UK. The NHP are acting as a use case study for a new Virtual Research Environment (VRE) being developed by the EVER-EST project (European Virtual Environment for Research - Earth Science Themes: a solution). The VRE is allowing the NHP to explore novel ways of cooperation including improved capabilities for e-collaboration, e-research, automation of processes and e-learning. Collaboration tools are complemented by the adoption of Research Objects, semantically rich aggregations of resources enabling the creation of uniquely identified digital artefacts resulting in reusable science and research. Application of the Research Object concept to HIM development facilitates collaboration, by encapsulating scientific knowledge in a shareable format that can be easily shared and used by partners working on the same model but within their areas of expertise. This paper describes the application of the VRE to the NHP use case study. It outlines the challenges associated with distributed partnership working and how they are being addressed in the VRE. A case study is included focussing on the application of Research Objects to development work for the surface water flooding hazard impact model, a key achievement for the HIM group.

Application of fuzzy logic approach for wind erosion hazard mapping in Laghouat region (Algeria) using remote sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saadoud, Djouher; Hassani, Mohamed; Martin Peinado, Francisco José; Guettouche, Mohamed Saïd

2018-06-01

Wind erosion is one of the most serious environmental problems in Algeria that threatens human activities and socio-economic development. The main goal of this study is to apply a fuzzy logic approach to wind erosion sensitivity mapping in the Laghouat region, Algeria. Six causative factors, obtained by applying fuzzy membership functions to each used parameter, are considered: soil, vegetation cover, wind factor, soil dryness, land topography and land cover sensitivity. Different fuzzy operators (AND, OR, SUM, PRODUCT, and GAMMA) are applied to generate wind-erosion hazard map. Success rate curves reveal that the fuzzy gamma (γ) operator, with γ equal to 0.9, gives the best prediction accuracy with an area under curve of 85.2%. The resulting wind-erosion sensitivity map delineates the area into different zones of five relative sensitivity classes: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. The estimated result was verified by field measurements and the high statistically significant value of a chi-square test.

The Seasonal Predictability of Extreme Wind Events in the Southwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seastrand, Simona Renee

Extreme wind events are a common phenomenon in the Southwest United States. Entities such as the United States Air Force (USAF) find the Southwest appealing for many reasons, primarily for the an expansive, unpopulated, and electronically unpolluted space for large-scale training and testing. However, wind events can cause hazards for the USAF including: surface wind gusts can impact the take-off and landing of all aircraft, can tip the airframes of large wing-surface aircraft during the performance of maneuvers close to the ground, and can even impact weapons systems. This dissertation is comprised of three sections intended to further our knowledge and understanding of wind events in the Southwest. The first section builds a climatology of wind events for seven locations in the Southwest during the twelve 3-month seasons of the year. The first section further examines the wind events in relation to terrain and the large-scale flow of the atmosphere. The second section builds upon the first by taking the wind events and generating mid-level composites for each of the twelve 3-month seasons. In the third section, teleconnections identified as consistent with the large-scale circulation in the second paper were used as predictor variables to build a Poisson regression model for each of the twelve 3-month seasons. The purpose of this research is to increase our understanding of the climatology of extreme wind events, increase our understanding of how the large-scale circulation influences extreme wind events, and create a model to enhance predictability of extreme wind events in the Southwest. Knowledge from this paper will help protect personnel and property associated with not only the USAF, but all those in the Southwest.

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis

PubMed Central

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed. PMID:26167524

Reliability Estimation of Parameters of Helical Wind Turbine with Vertical Axis.

PubMed

Dumitrascu, Adela-Eliza; Lepadatescu, Badea; Dumitrascu, Dorin-Ion; Nedelcu, Anisor; Ciobanu, Doina Valentina

2015-01-01

Due to the prolonged use of wind turbines they must be characterized by high reliability. This can be achieved through a rigorous design, appropriate simulation and testing, and proper construction. The reliability prediction and analysis of these systems will lead to identifying the critical components, increasing the operating time, minimizing failure rate, and minimizing maintenance costs. To estimate the produced energy by the wind turbine, an evaluation approach based on the Monte Carlo simulation model is developed which enables us to estimate the probability of minimum and maximum parameters. In our simulation process we used triangular distributions. The analysis of simulation results has been focused on the interpretation of the relative frequency histograms and cumulative distribution curve (ogive diagram), which indicates the probability of obtaining the daily or annual energy output depending on wind speed. The experimental researches consist in estimation of the reliability and unreliability functions and hazard rate of the helical vertical axis wind turbine designed and patented to climatic conditions for Romanian regions. Also, the variation of power produced for different wind speeds, the Weibull distribution of wind probability, and the power generated were determined. The analysis of experimental results indicates that this type of wind turbine is efficient at low wind speed.

Coherent Pulsed Lidar Sensing of Wake Vortex Position and Strength, Winds and Turbulence in the Terminal Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brockman, Philip; Barker, Ben C., Jr.; Koch, Grady J.; Nguyen, Dung Phu Chi; Britt, Charles L., Jr.; Petros, Mulugeta

1999-01-01

NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has field tested a 2.0 gm, 100 Hertz, pulsed coherent lidar to detect and characterize wake vortices and to measure atmospheric winds and turbulence. The quantification of aircraft wake-vortex hazards is being addressed by the Wake Vortex Lidar (WVL) Project as part of Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS), which is under the Reduced Spacing Operations Element of the Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) Program. These hazards currently set the minimum, fixed separation distance between two aircraft and affect the number of takeoff and landing operations on a single runway under Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). The AVOSS concept seeks to safely reduce aircraft separation distances, when weather conditions permit, to increase the operational capacity of major airports. The current NASA wake-vortex research efforts focus on developing and validating wake vortex encounter models, wake decay and advection models, and wake sensing technologies. These technologies will be incorporated into an automated AVOSS that can properly select safe separation distances for different weather conditions, based on the aircraft pair and predicted/measured vortex behavior. The sensor subsystem efforts focus on developing and validating wake sensing technologies. The lidar system has been field-tested to provide real-time wake vortex trajectory and strength data to AVOSS for wake prediction verification. Wake vortices, atmospheric winds, and turbulence products have been generated from processing the lidar data collected during deployments to Norfolk (ORF), John F. Kennedy (JFK), and Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airports.

Meteorological predictions for Mars 2020 Exploration Rover high-priority landing sites throug MRAMS Mesoscale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pla-García, Jorge; Rafkin, Scot C. R.

2015-04-01

The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is used to predict meteorological conditions that are likely to be encountered by the Mars 2020 Exploration Rover at several proposed landing sites during entry, descent, and landing (EDL). The meteorology during the EDL window at most of the sites is dynamic. The intense heating of the lower atmosphere drives intense thermals and mesoscale thermal circulations. Moderate mean winds, wind shear, turbulence, and vertical air currents associated with convection are present and potentially hazardous to EDL [1]. Nine areas with specific high-priority landing ellipses of the 2020 Rover, are investigated: NE Syrtis, Nili Fossae, Nili Fossae Carbonates, Jezero Crater Delta, Holden Crater, McLaughlin Crater, Southwest Melas Basin, Mawrth Vallis and East Margaritifer Chloride. MRAMS was applied to the landing site regions using nested grids with a spacing of 330 meters on the innermost grid that is centered over each landing site. MRAMS is ideally suited for this investigation; the model is explicitly designed to simulate Mars' atmospheric thermal circulations at the mesoscale and smaller with realistic, high-resolution surface properties [2, 3]. Horizontal wind speeds, both vertical profiles and vertical cross-sections wind speeds, are studied. For some landing sites simulations, two example configurations -including and not including Hellas basin in the mother domain- were generated, in order to study how the basin affects the innermost grids circulations. Afternoon circulations at all sites pose some risk entry, descent, and landing. Most of the atmospheric hazards are not evident in current observational data and general circulation model simulations and can only be ascertained through mesoscale modeling of the region. Decide where to go first and then design a system that can tolerate the environment would greatly minimize risk. References: [1] Rafkin, S. C. R., and T. I. Michaels (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108(E12), 8091. [2] Rafkin, S. C. R., R. M. Haberle, and T. I. Michaels (2001), Icarus, 151, 228-256.
[3] Rafkin, S. C. R., M. R. V. Sta. Maria, and T. I. Michaels (2002), Nature, 419, 697-699.

Wake Vortex Prediction Models for Decay and Transport Within Stratified Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, George F.; Proctor, Fred H.

2002-01-01

This paper proposes two simple models to predict vortex transport and decay. The models are determined empirically from results of three-dimensional large eddy simulations, and are applicable to wake vortices out of ground effect and not subjected to environmental winds. The results, from the large eddy simulations assume a range of ambient turbulence and stratification levels. The models and the results from the large eddy simulations support the hypothesis that the decay of the vortex hazard is decoupled from its change in descent rate.

Mesoscale acid deposition modeling studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Proctor, F. H.; Zack, John W.; Karyampudi, V. Mohan; Price, P. E.; Bousquet, M. D.; Coats, G. D.

1989-01-01

The work performed in support of the EPA/DOE MADS (Mesoscale Acid Deposition) Project included the development of meteorological data bases for the initialization of chemistry models, the testing and implementation of new planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes in the MASS model, the simulation of transport and precipitation for MADS case studies employing the MASS model, and the use of the TASS model in the simulation of cloud statistics and the complex transport of conservative tracers within simulated cumuloform clouds. The work performed in support of the NASA/FAA Wind Shear Program included the use of the TASS model in the simulation of the dynamical processes within convective cloud systems, the analyses of the sensitivity of microburst intensity and general characteristics as a function of the atmospheric environment within which they are formed, comparisons of TASS model microburst simulation results to observed data sets, and the generation of simulated wind shear data bases for use by the aviation meteorological community in the evaluation of flight hazards caused by microbursts.

Comparison of simulated and actual wind shear radar data products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britt, Charles L.; Crittenden, Lucille H.

1992-01-01

Prior to the development of the NASA experimental wind shear radar system, extensive computer simulations were conducted to determine the performance of the radar in combined weather and ground clutter environments. The simulation of the radar used analytical microburst models to determine weather returns and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) maps to determine ground clutter returns. These simulations were used to guide the development of hazard detection algorithms and to predict their performance. The structure of the radar simulation is reviewed. Actual flight data results from the Orlando and Denver tests are compared with simulated results. Areas of agreement and disagreement of actual and simulated results are shown.

Solutions Network Formulation Report. The Potential Contribution of the Ocean Surface Topography Mission to the General NOAA Oil Monitoring Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilbert, Kent; Anderson, Daniel; Lewis, David

2007-01-01

Data collected by the OSTM could be used to provide a solution for the GNOME DST. GNOME, developed by NOAA?s Office of Response and Restoration Hazardous Materials Response Division, geospatially models oil spill trajectories using wind, current, river flow, and tidal data. Data collected by the OSTM would supply information about ocean currents and wind speeds. This Candidate Solution is in alignment with the Coastal Management, Water Management, Disaster Management, Public Health, Ecological Forecasting, and Homeland Security National Applications and will benefit society by improving the capabilities of emergency responders who evaluate an oil spill?s probable threat.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

A modelling framework to predict bat activity patterns on wind farms: An outline of possible applications on mountain ridges of North Portugal.

PubMed

Silva, Carmen; Cabral, João Alexandre; Hughes, Samantha Jane; Santos, Mário

2017-03-01

Worldwide ecological impact assessments of wind farms have gathered relevant information on bat activity patterns. Since conventional bat study methods require intensive field work, the prediction of bat activity might prove useful by anticipating activity patterns and estimating attractiveness concomitant with the wind farm location. A novel framework was developed, based on the stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) principles, to predict bat activity on mountain ridges with wind farms. We illustrate the framework application using regional data from North Portugal by merging information from several environmental monitoring programmes associated with diverse wind energy facilities that enable integrating the multifactorial influences of meteorological conditions, land cover and geographical variables on bat activity patterns. Output from this innovative methodology can anticipate episodes of exceptional bat activity, which, if correlated with collision probability, can be used to guide wind farm management strategy such as halting wind turbines during hazardous periods. If properly calibrated with regional gradients of environmental variables from mountain ridges with windfarms, the proposed methodology can be used as a complementary tool in environmental impact assessments and ecological monitoring, using predicted bat activity to assist decision making concerning the future location of wind farms and the implementation of effective mitigation measures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extremes of Extra-tropical Storms and Drivers of Variability on Different Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.

2015-12-01

Extreme extra-tropical cyclones are highly complex dynamical systems with relevance not only for the meteorological and climatological conditions themselves, but also for impacts on different sectors of society and economy. In this presentation latest research results to severe cyclones and related wind fields from synoptic to multi-decadal and anthropogenic scales will be presented, including recent work to risk assessment of potential damages out of this natural hazard. Nevertheless, the focus is laid on the seasonal timescale and recent results to predictability and predictive skills out of different forecast suites will be discussed. In this context, three seasonal forecast suites, namely ECMWF System 3, ECMWF System 4 and Met Office HadGEM-GA3, are analysed regarding their ability to represent wintertime extra-tropical cyclone and wind storm events for the period 1992 until 2011. Two objective algorithms have been applied to 6 hourly MSLP data and 12 hourly wind speeds in 925hPa to detect cyclone and wind storm events, respectively. Results show that all model suites are able to simulate the climatological mean distribution of cyclones and wind storms. For wind storms, all model suites show positive skill in simulating the inter-annual variability over the sub-tropical Pacific. Results for the Atlantic region are more model dependent, with all models showing negative correlations over the western Atlantic. Over the eastern Atlantic/Western Europe only HadGEM-GA3 and ECMWF-S4 reveal significant positive correlations. However, it is found that results over this region are not robust in time for ECMWF-S4, as correlations drop if using 1982 until 2011 instead of 1992 until 2011. Factors of potential predictability will be discussed.

Evaluation of iconic versus F-map microburst displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salzberger, Mark; Hansman, R. John; Wanke, Craig

1994-01-01

Previous studies have shown graphical presentation methods of hazardous wind shear to be superior to textual or audible warnings alone. Positional information and the strength of the hazard were observed to be and were cited by pilots as the most important factors in a display. In this experiment the use of the three different graphical presentations of hazardous wind shear are examined. Airborne predictive detectors of wind shear enable the dissemination of varying levels of information. The effectiveness of iconic and mapping display modes of different complexities are addressed through simulation and analysis. Different positional and time-varying situations are presented in a 'part-task' Boeing 767 simulator using data from actual microburst events. Experienced airline pilots fly approach profiles using both iconic and F-map wind shear alerting displays. Microburst accompanied each event is also shown to the pilot. Mapping display types are expected to be found exceptionally efficient at conveying location comparison information while iconic displays simplify the threat recognition process. Preliminary results from the simulator study are presented. Recommendations concerning the suitability of multilevel iconic and mapping displays are made. Situational problems with current display prototypes are also addressed.

Observations and predictability of gap winds in a steep, narrow, fire-prone canyon in central Idaho, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Gibson, C.; Lamb, B. K.

2017-12-01

Frequent strong gap winds were measured in a deep, steep, wildfire-prone river canyon of central Idaho, USA during July-September 2013. Analysis of archived surface pressure data indicate that the gap wind events were driven by regional scale surface pressure gradients. The events always occurred between 0400 and 1200 LT and typically lasted 3-4 hours. The timing makes these events particularly hazardous for wildland firefighting applications since the morning is typically a period of reduced fire activity and unsuspecting firefighters could be easily endangered by the onset of strong downcanyon winds. The gap wind events were not explicitly forecast by operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to the small spatial scale of the canyon ( 1-2 km wide) compared to the horizontal resolution of operational NWP models (3 km or greater). Custom WRF simulations initialized with NARR data were run at 1 km horizontal resolution to assess whether higher resolution NWP could accurately simulate the observed gap winds. Here, we show that the 1 km WRF simulations captured many of the observed gap wind events, although the strength of the events was underpredicted. We also present evidence from these WRF simulations which suggests that the Salmon River Canyon is near the threshold of WRF-resolvable terrain features when the standard WRF coordinate system and discretization schemes are used. Finally, we show that the strength of the gap wind events can be predicted reasonably well as a function of the surface pressure gradient across the gap, which could be useful in the absence of high-resolution NWP. These are important findings for wildland firefighting applications in narrow gaps where routine forecasts may not provide warning for wind effects induced by high-resolution terrain features.

Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States.

PubMed

Saunders, Mark A; Lea, Adam S

2005-04-21

Much of the property damage from natural hazards in the United States is caused by landfalling hurricanes--strong tropical cyclones that reach the coast. For the southeastern Atlantic coast of the US, a statistical method for forecasting the occurrence of landfalling hurricanes for the season ahead has been reported, but the physical mechanisms linking the predictor variables to the frequency of hurricanes remain unclear. Here we present a statistical model that uses July wind anomalies between 1950 and 2003 to predict with significant and useful skill the wind energy of US landfalling hurricanes for the following main hurricane season (August to October). We have identified six regions over North America and over the east Pacific and North Atlantic oceans where July wind anomalies, averaged between heights of 925 and 400 mbar, exhibit a stationary and significant link to the energy of landfalling hurricanes during the subsequent hurricane season. The wind anomalies in these regions are indicative of atmospheric circulation patterns that either favour or hinder evolving hurricanes from reaching US shores.

Evaluation of total energy-rate feedback for glidescope tracking in wind shear

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, C. M.; Ostroff, A. J.

1986-01-01

Low-altitude wind shear is recognized as an infrequent but significant hazard to all aircraft during take-off and landing. A total energy-rate sensor, which is potentially applicable to this problem, has been developed for measuring specific total energy-rate of an airplane with respect to the air mass. This paper presents control system designs, with and without energy-rate feedback, for the approach to landing of a transport airplane through severe wind shear and gusts to evaluate application of this sensor. A system model is developed which incorporates wind shear dynamics equations with the airplance equations of motion, thus allowing the control systems to be analyzed under various wind shears. The control systems are designed using optimal output feedback and are analyzed using frequency domain control theory techniques. Control system performance is evaluated using a complete nonlinear simulation of the airplane and a severe wind shear and gust data package. The analysis and simulation results indicate very similar stability and performance characteristics for the two designs. An implementation technique for distributing the velocity gains between airspeed and ground speed in the simulation is also presented, and this technique is shown to improve the performance characteristics of both designs.

Observations of Building Performance under Combined Wind and Surge Loading from Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, F.; Roueche, D. B.; Krupar, R. J.; Smith, D. J.; Soto, M. G.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas coastline on August 25, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane to reach the US in twelve years. Wind gusts over 130 mph and storm surge as high as 12.5 ft caused widespread damage to buildings and critical infrastructure in coastal communities including Rockport, Fulton, Port Aransas and Aransas Pass. This study presents the methodology and preliminary observations of a coordinated response effort to document residential building performance under wind and storm surge loading. Over a twelve day survey period the study team assessed the performance of more than 1,000 individual, geo-located residential buildings. Assessments were logged via a smartphone application to facilitate rapid collection and collation of geotagged photographs, building attributes and structural details, and structural damage observations. Detailed assessments were also made of hazard intensity, specifically storm surge heights and both wind speed and direction indicators. Preliminary observations and findings will be presented, showing strong gradients in damage between inland and coastal regions of the affected areas that may be due in part to enhanced individual loading effects of wind and storm surge and potentially joint-hazard loading effects. Contributing factors to the many cases of disproportionate damage observed in close proximity will also be discussed. Ongoing efforts to relate building damage to near-surface hazard measurements (e.g., radar, anemometry) in close proximity will also be described.

Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before and during eruptions: BET_VHst for Mt. Etna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Scollo, Simona; Costa, Antonio; Brancato, Alfonso; Prestifilippo, Michele

2015-04-01

Tephra dispersal, even in small amounts, may heavily affect public health and critical infrastructures, such as airports, train and road networks, and electric power supply systems. Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at managing and mitigating the risk posed by activity during volcanic crises and during eruptions. Short-term PVHA (over time intervals in the order of hours to few days) must account for rapidly changing information coming from the monitoring system, as well as, updated wind forecast, and they must be accomplished in near-real-time. In addition, while during unrest the primary goal is to forecast potential eruptions, during eruptions it is also fundamental to correctly account for the real-time status of the eruption and of tephra dispersal, as well as its potential evolution in the short-term. Here, we present a preliminary application of BET_VHst model (Selva et al. 2014) for Mt. Etna. The model has its roots into present state deterministic procedure, and it deals with the large uncertainty that such procedures typically ignore, like uncertainty on the potential position of the vent and eruptive size, on the possible evolution of volcanological input during ongoing eruptions, as well as, on wind field. Uncertainty is treated by making use of Bayesian inference, alternative modeling procedures for tephra dispersal, and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2017 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2015 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

A candidate concept for display of forward-looking wind shear information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, David A.

1989-01-01

A concept is proposed which integrates forward-look wind shear information with airplane performance capabilities to predict future airplane energy state as a function of range. The information could be displayed to a crew either in terms of energy height or airspeed deviations. The anticipated benefits of the proposed display information concept are: (1) a wind shear hazard product that scales directly to the performance impact on the airplane and that has intuitive meaning to flight crews; (2) a reduction in flight crew workload by automatic processing of relevant hazard parameters; and (3) a continuous display of predicted airplane energy state if the approach is continued. Such a display may be used to improve pilot situational awareness or improve pilot confidence in wind shear alerts generated by other systems. The display is described and the algorithms necessary for implementation in a simulation system are provided.

Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Treesearch

Charles Jones; Francis Fujioka; Leila M.V. Carvalho

2010-01-01

Santa Ana winds (SAW) are synoptically driven mesoscale winds observed in Southern California usually during late fall and winter. Because of the complex topography of the region, SAW episodes can sometimes be extremely intense and pose significant environmental hazards, especially during wildfire incidents. A simple set of criteria was used to identify synoptic-scale...

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards--Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

2012-01-01

Sandy beaches provide a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During a hurricane, these changes can be large and sometimes catastrophic. High waves and storm surge act together to erode beaches and inundate low-lying lands, putting inland communities at risk. A decade of USGS research on storm-driven coastal change hazards has provided the data and modeling capabilities to identify areas of our coastline that are likely to experience extreme and potentially hazardous erosion during a hurricane. This report defines hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards for sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future.

A Prototype Flight-Deck Airflow Hazard Visualization System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aragon, Cecilia R.

2004-01-01

Airflow hazards such as turbulence, vortices, or low-level wind shear can pose a threat to landing aircraft and are especially dangerous to helicopters. Because pilots usually cannot see airflow, they may be unaware of the extent of the hazard. We have developed a prototype airflow hazard visual display for use in helicopter cockpits to alleviate this problem. We report on the results of a preliminary usability study of our airflow hazard visualization system in helicopter-shipboard operations.

Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Peng; Du, Mei

2018-06-01

China's southeast coastal areas frequently suffer from storm surge due to the attack of tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Hazards induced by TCs are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. The atmospheric and oceanic hazards cause serious disasters and substantial economic losses. This paper, from the perspective of hazard group, sets up a multi-factor evaluation method for the risk assessment of TC hazards using historical extreme data of concerned atmospheric and oceanic elements. Based on the natural hazard dynamic process, the multi-factor indicator system is composed of nine natural hazard factors representing intensity and frequency, respectively. Contributing to the indicator system, in order of importance, are maximum wind speed by TCs, attack frequency of TCs, maximum surge height, maximum wave height, frequency of gusts ≥ Scale 8, rainstorm intensity, maximum tidal range, rainstorm frequency, then sea-level rising rate. The first four factors are the most important, whose weights exceed 10% in the indicator system. With normalization processing, all the single-hazard factors are superposed by multiplying their weights to generate a superposed TC hazard. The multi-factor evaluation indicator method was applied to the risk assessment of typhoon-induced atmospheric and oceanic hazard group in typhoon-prone southeast coastal cities of China.

Joint probabilities of extreme precipitation and wind gusts in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Waldow, H.; Martius, O.

2012-04-01

Extreme meteorological events such as storms, heavy rain, floods, droughts and heat waves can have devastating consequences for human health, infrastructure and ecosystems. Concomitantly occurring extreme events might interact synergistically to produce a particularly hazardous impact. The joint occurrence of droughts and heat waves, for example, can have a very different impact on human health and ecosystems both in quantity and quality, than just one of the two extreme events. The co-occurrence of certain types of extreme events is plausible from physical and dynamical considerations, for example heavy precipitation and high wind speeds in the pathway of strong extratropical cyclones. The winter storm Kyrill not only caused wind gust speeds well in excess of 30 m/s across Europe, but also brought 24 h precipitation sums greater than the mean January accumulations in some regions. However, the existence of such compound risks is currently not accounted for by insurance companies, who assume independence of extreme weather events to calculate their premiums. While there are established statistical methods to model the extremes of univariate meteorological variables, the modelling of multidimensional extremes calls for an approach that is tailored to the specific problem at hand. A first step involves defining extreme bivariate wind/precipitation events. Because precipitation and wind gusts caused by the same cyclone or convective cell do not occur at exactly the same location and at the same time, it is necessary to find a sound definition of "extreme compound event" for this case. We present a data driven method to choose appropriate time and space intervals that define "concomitance" for wind and precipitation extremes. Based on station data of wind speed and gridded precipitation data, we arrive at time and space intervals that compare well with the typical time and space scales of extratropical cyclones, i.e. a maximum time lag of 1 day and a maximum distance of about 300 km between associated wind and rain events. After modelling extreme precipitation and wind separately, we explore the practicability of characterising their joint distribution using a bivariate threshold excess model. In particular, we present different dependence measures and report about the computational feasibility and available computer codes.

The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with the critical information they need to respond quickly and efficiently and to increase public safety and mitigate damage associated with powerful coastal storms. For instance, high resolution local models will predict detailed wave heights, breaking patterns, and current strengths for use in warning systems for harbor-mouth navigation and densely populated coastal regions where beach safety is threatened. The offline applications are intended to equip coastal managers with the information needed to manage and allocate their resources effectively to protect sections of coast that may be most vulnerable to future severe storms.

A statistical inference for concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene partially measured in the ambient air of an industrial city in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yongku; Seo, Young-Kyo; Baek, Sung-Ok

2013-12-01

Although large quantities of air pollutants are released into the atmosphere, they are partially monitored and routinely assessed for their health implications. This paper proposes a statistical model describing the temporal behavior of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), which can have negative effects on human health. Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is selected for statistical modeling. The proposed model incorporates the linkage between BaP and meteorology and is specifically formulated to identify meteorological effects and allow for seasonal trends. The model is used to estimate and forecast temporal fields of BaP conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and air quality. The effects of BaP on human health are examined by characterizing health indicators, namely the cancer risk and the hazard quotient. The model provides useful information for the optimal monitoring period and projection of future BaP concentrations for both industrial and residential areas in Korea.

Cockpit display of hazardous weather information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Wanke, Craig

1989-01-01

Information transfer and display issues associated with the dissemination of hazardous-weather warnings are studied in the context of wind-shear alerts. Operational and developmental wind-shear detection systems are briefly reviewed. The July 11, 1988 microburst events observed as part of the Denver TDWR operational evaluation are analyzed in terms of information transfer and the effectiveness of the microburst alerts. Information transfer, message content, and display issues associated with microburst alerts generated from ground-based sources (Doppler radars, LLWAS, and PIREPS) are evaluated by means of pilot opinion surveys and part-task simulator studies.

A Study into the Impact of Physical Structures on the Runway Velocity Field at the Atlantic City International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, David, Jr.; Manson, Russell; Trout, Joseph; Decicco, Nicholas; Rios, Manny

2015-04-01

Wake vortices are generated by airplanes in flight. These vortices decay slowly and may persist for several minutes after their creation. These vortices and associated smaller scale turbulent structures present a hazard to incoming flights. It is for this reason that incoming flights are timed to arrive after these vortices have dissipated. Local weather conditions, mainly prevailing winds, can affect the transport and evolution of these vortices; therefore, there is a need to fully understand localized wind patterns at the airport-sized mircoscale. Here we have undertaken a computational investigation into the impacts of localized wind flows and physical structures on the velocity field at Atlantic City International Airport. The simulations are undertaken in OpenFOAM, an open source computational fluid dynamics software package, using an optimized geometric mesh of the airport. Initial conditions for the simulations are based on historical data with the option to run simulations based on projected weather conditions imported from the Weather Research & Forcasting (WRF) Model. Sub-grid scale turbulence is modeled using a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach. The initial results gathered from the WRF Model simulations and historical weather data analysis are presented elsewhere.

Experimental Validation of a Forward Looking Interferometer for Detection of Clear Air Turbulence due to Mountain Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaffner, Philip R.; Daniels, Taumi S.; West, Leanne L.; Gimmestad, Gary G.; Lane, Sarah E.; Burdette, Edward M.; Smith, William L.; Kireev, Stanislav; Cornman, Larry; Sharman, Robert D.

2012-01-01

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is an airborne sensor concept for detection and estimation of potential atmospheric hazards to aircraft. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometry technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing. The FLI is being evaluated for its potential to address multiple hazards, during all phases of flight, including clear air turbulence, volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing. In addition, the FLI is being evaluated for its potential to detect hazardous runway conditions during landing, such as wet or icy asphalt or concrete. The validation of model-based instrument and hazard simulation results is accomplished by comparing predicted performance against empirical data. In the mountain lee wave data collected in the previous FLI project, the data showed a damped, periodic mountain wave structure. The wave data itself will be of use in forecast and nowcast turbulence products such as the Graphical Turbulence Guidance and Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast products. Determining how turbulence hazard estimates can be derived from FLI measurements will require further investigation.

How to value protection from natural hazards - a step-by-step discrete choice approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olschewski, R.

2013-04-01

In mountainous regions, forests play a crucial role in protecting the local population from natural hazards. In cases where existing forests are destroyed, e.g. by wind throws or diseases, the protection function has to be restored through technical measures. To determine the willingness to pay (WTP) for protection against avalanches, a choice experiment has been conducted and different experiment specifications have been tested to determine possible impacts on the results. The present study contributes to a comprehensive assessment of protection measures, and helps to identify efficient solutions based on the judgement of the people potentially endangered by natural hazards. The stepwise approach has the advantage to gradually check data fit, thereby didactically showing an operational way of dealing with different model specifications. The detailed case study can serve as a manual for conducting choice experiments with a similar focus and demonstrates the suitability and caveats of this approach to value protection from natural hazards in general.

CLASS: Coherent Lidar Airborne Shear Sensor. Windshear avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Targ, Russell

1991-01-01

The coherent lidar airborne shear sensor (CLASS) is an airborne CO2 lidar system being designed and developed by Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, Inc. (LMSC) under contract to NASA Langley Research Center. The goal of this program is to develop a system with a 2- to 4-kilometer range that will provide a warning time of 20 to 40 seconds, so that the pilot can avoid the hazards of low-altitude wind shear under all weather conditions. It is a predictive system which will warn the pilot about a hazard that the aircraft will experience at some later time. The ability of the system to provide predictive warnings of clear air turbulence will also be evaluated. A one-year flight evaluation program will measure the line-of-sight wind velocity from a wide variety of wind fields obtained by an airborne radar, an accelerometer-based reactive wind-sensing system, and a ground-based Doppler radar. The success of the airborne lidar system will be determined by its correlation with the windfield as indicated by the onboard reactive system, which indicates the winds actually experienced by the NASA Boeing 737 aircraft.

Response of wind erosion dynamics to climate change and human activity in Inner Mongolia, China during 1990 to 2015.

PubMed

Zhang, Haiyan; Fan, Jiangwen; Cao, Wei; Harris, Warwick; Li, Yuzhe; Chi, Wenfeng; Wang, Suizi

2018-10-15

Soil erosion caused by wind is a serious environmental problem that results in land degradation and threatens sustainable development. Accurately evaluating wind erosion dynamics is important for reducing the hazard of wind erosion. Separating the climatic and anthropogenic causes of wind erosion can improve the understanding of its driving mechanisms. Based on meteorological, remote sensing and field observation data, we applied the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ) to simulate wind erosion in Inner Mongolia, China from 1990 to 2015. We used the variable control method by input of the average climate conditions to calculate human-induced wind erosion. The difference between natural wind erosion and human-induced wind erosion was determined to assess the effect of climate change on wind erosion. The results showed that the wind erosion modulus had a remarkable decline with a slope of 52.23 t/km 2 /a from 1990 to 2015. During 26 years, the average wind erosion for Inner Mongolia amounted to 63.32 billion tons. Wind erosion showed an overall significant decline of 49.23% and the partial severer erosion hazard significantly increased by 7.11%. Of the significant regional decline, 40.72% was caused by climate changes, and 8.51% was attributed to ecological restoration programs. For the significant regional increases of wind erosion, 4.29% was attributed to climate changes and 2.82% to human activities, mainly overgrazing and land use/cover changes. During the study, the driving forces in Inner Mongolia of wind erosion dynamics differed spatially. Timely monitoring based on multi-source data and highlighting the importance of positive human activities by increasing vegetation coverage for deserts, reducing grazing pressure on grasslands, establishing forests as windbreaks and optimizing crop planting rotations of farmlands can all act to reduce and control wind erosion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimizing Wind Power Generation while Minimizing Wildlife Impacts in an Urban Area

PubMed Central

Bohrer, Gil; Zhu, Kunpeng; Jones, Robert L.; Curtis, Peter S.

2013-01-01

The location of a wind turbine is critical to its power output, which is strongly affected by the local wind field. Turbine operators typically seek locations with the best wind at the lowest level above ground since turbine height affects installation costs. In many urban applications, such as small-scale turbines owned by local communities or organizations, turbine placement is challenging because of limited available space and because the turbine often must be added without removing existing infrastructure, including buildings and trees. The need to minimize turbine hazard to wildlife compounds the challenge. We used an exclusion zone approach for turbine-placement optimization that incorporates spatially detailed maps of wind distribution and wildlife densities with power output predictions for the Ohio State University campus. We processed public GIS records and airborne lidar point-cloud data to develop a 3D map of all campus buildings and trees. High resolution large-eddy simulations and long-term wind climatology were combined to provide land-surface-affected 3D wind fields and the corresponding wind-power generation potential. This power prediction map was then combined with bird survey data. Our assessment predicts that exclusion of areas where bird numbers are highest will have modest effects on the availability of locations for power generation. The exclusion zone approach allows the incorporation of wildlife hazard in wind turbine siting and power output considerations in complex urban environments even when the quantitative interaction between wildlife behavior and turbine activity is unknown. PMID:23409117

Optimizing wind power generation while minimizing wildlife impacts in an urban area.

PubMed

Bohrer, Gil; Zhu, Kunpeng; Jones, Robert L; Curtis, Peter S

2013-01-01

The location of a wind turbine is critical to its power output, which is strongly affected by the local wind field. Turbine operators typically seek locations with the best wind at the lowest level above ground since turbine height affects installation costs. In many urban applications, such as small-scale turbines owned by local communities or organizations, turbine placement is challenging because of limited available space and because the turbine often must be added without removing existing infrastructure, including buildings and trees. The need to minimize turbine hazard to wildlife compounds the challenge. We used an exclusion zone approach for turbine-placement optimization that incorporates spatially detailed maps of wind distribution and wildlife densities with power output predictions for the Ohio State University campus. We processed public GIS records and airborne lidar point-cloud data to develop a 3D map of all campus buildings and trees. High resolution large-eddy simulations and long-term wind climatology were combined to provide land-surface-affected 3D wind fields and the corresponding wind-power generation potential. This power prediction map was then combined with bird survey data. Our assessment predicts that exclusion of areas where bird numbers are highest will have modest effects on the availability of locations for power generation. The exclusion zone approach allows the incorporation of wildlife hazard in wind turbine siting and power output considerations in complex urban environments even when the quantitative interaction between wildlife behavior and turbine activity is unknown.

High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folch, Arnau; Barcons, Jordi; Kozono, Tomofumi; Costa, Antonio

2017-06-01

Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities if the terrain and meteorological conditions favour its accumulation in topographic depressions, thereby reaching toxic concentration levels. Numerical modelling of atmospheric gas dispersion constitutes a useful tool for gas hazard assessment studies, essential for planning risk mitigation actions. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behaviour, potentially leading to inaccurate results if not captured by coarser-scale modelling. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterisation based on transfer functions that couple a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model with a microscale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting time-dependent high-resolution microscale wind field is used as input for a shallow-layer gas dispersal model (TWODEE-2.1) to simulate the time evolution of CO2 gas concentration at different heights above the terrain. The strategy is applied to review simulations of the 1986 Lake Nyos event in Cameroon, where a huge CO2 cloud released by a limnic eruption spread downslopes from the lake, suffocating thousands of people and animals across the Nyos and adjacent secondary valleys. Besides several new features introduced in the new version of the gas dispersal code (TWODEE-2.1), we have also implemented a novel impact criterion based on the percentage of human fatalities depending on CO2 concentration and exposure time. New model results are quantitatively validated using the reported percentage of fatalities at several locations. The comparison with previous simulations that assumed coarser-scale steady winds and topography illustrates the importance of high-resolution modelling in complex terrains.

Weather and Flight Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiley, Scott

2007-01-01

This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

3D acoustic atmospheric tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Kevin; Finn, Anthony

2014-10-01

This paper presents a method for tomographically reconstructing spatially varying 3D atmospheric temperature profiles and wind velocity fields based. Measurements of the acoustic signature measured onboard a small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) are compared to ground-based observations of the same signals. The frequency-shifted signal variations are then used to estimate the acoustic propagation delay between the UAV and the ground microphones, which are also affected by atmospheric temperature and wind speed vectors along each sound ray path. The wind and temperature profiles are modelled as the weighted sum of Radial Basis Functions (RBFs), which also allow local meteorological measurements made at the UAV and ground receivers to supplement any acoustic observations. Tomography is used to provide a full 3D reconstruction/visualisation of the observed atmosphere. The technique offers observational mobility under direct user control and the capacity to monitor hazardous atmospheric environments, otherwise not justifiable on the basis of cost or risk. This paper summarises the tomographic technique and reports on the results of simulations and initial field trials. The technique has practical applications for atmospheric research, sound propagation studies, boundary layer meteorology, air pollution measurements, analysis of wind shear, and wind farm surveys.

VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE DAMAGE ON THE U.S. GULF COAST SINCE 1950

PubMed Central

LOGAN, JOHN R.; XU, ZENGWANG

2015-01-01

We study hurricane risk on the U.S. Gulf Coast during 1950–2005, estimating the wind damage and storm surge from every hurricane in this extended period. Wind damage is estimated from the known path and wind speeds of individual storms and calibrated to fit actual damage reports for a sample of Gulf Coast storms. Storm surge is estimated using the SLOSH model developed by NOAA. These models provide the first comprehensive overview of the hurricane storm hazard as it has been experienced over a fifty-six-year period. We link the estimated damage with information on the population and specific socio-demographic components of the population (by age, race, and poverty status). Results show that white, young adult, and nonpoor populations have shifted over time away from zones with higher risk of wind damage, while more vulnerable population groups–the elderly, African Americans, and poor—have moved in the opposite direction. All groups have moved away from areas with high risk of storm surge since 1970. But in this case, perhaps because living near the water is still perceived as an amenity, those at highest risk are whites, elderly, and nonpoor households. Here exposure represents a trade-off between the risk and the amenity. PMID:25926706

Wind Shear Modeling for Aircraft Hazard Definition.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-02-01

should give a valid representation of most terminal areas. For air- ports located near unusual terrain features such as mountains or cliffs...A ( IP+t—1 , 11, 2 )—A(1~~+i— 1 , 10,2) )/u1~ lJd L J U INt)r. ~AA (1. O ALEA )* (1. O — b E L A ) $ L )X X ( 1, 1) +bE.Lu *C 1.0 ALd~A )*L)XX (1

77 FR 39721 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

..., identified by Docket No. FEMA-B-1256, to Luis Rodriguez, Chief, Engineering Management Branch, Federal..., Engineering Management Branch, Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration, FEMA, 500 C Street SW..., 2040 Hay Terrace, Easton, PA 18042. Borough of Wind Gap Borough Offices, 29 Mechanic Street, Wind Gap...

The Federal Aviation Administration/Massachusetts Institute of Technology (FAA/MIT) Lincoln Laboratory Doppler weather radar program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, James E.

1988-01-01

The program focuses on providing real-time information on hazardous aviation weather to end users such as air traffic control and pilots. Existing systems will soon be replaced by a Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), which will be concerned with detecting such hazards as heavy rain and hail, turbulence, low-altitude wind shear, and mesocyclones and tornadoes. Other systems in process are the Central Weather Processor (CWP), and the terminal Doppler weather radar (TDWR). Weather measurements near Memphis are central to ongoing work, especially in the area of microbursts and wind shear.

Modeling long distance dispersal of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus as a polydisperse aerosol - Application to the emergence of a new strain from Egypt to Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klausner, Ziv; Klement, Eyal; Fattal, Eyal

2015-12-01

Long distance dispersal (LDD) of airborne aerosol of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was extensively modeled in the literature. Most studies modeled this aerosol in simplistic approach as a passive tracer, neglecting physical and biological mechanisms that affect bio-aerosols such as the FMD aerosol. This approach was justified either because under persistent wind these mechanisms lower the extant of downwind hazard or on the grounds that the effect of some of the physical mechanisms on particles as small as the FMD particles (0.015-20 μm) is supposed to be negligible compared to the effect of atmospheric turbulence. Even when the FMD aerosol was treated as aerosol, it was assumed that it is monodisperse, i.e., all its particles are of the same size. The aim of the study is to examine whether these simplistic approaches are indeed justified when dealing with LDD of a bio-aerosol under actual atmospheric conditions. In order to do so, the influence of a more realistic modeling of the FMD aerosol as a polydisperse aerosol was compared to passive tracer and to monodisperse aerosol. The comparison refers to a case of a widespread FMD outbreak that occurred in 2012 in Egypt. This outbreak involved the emergence of a new serotype in Egypt, SAT2 and concern was raised that this serotype will advance further to Asia and Europe. Israel is located on the land bridge between Africa, Asia and Europe, and shares a long desert border with Egypt as well as a long Mediterranean shore adjacent to Egypt's shore. This unique location as well as the fact that Israel does not have any cattle trade with its neighboring countries make Israel an interesting test case for the examination of the necessary conditions for the long distance dispersal (LDD) of a new FMD strains from Africa to Europe. The analysis in this study shows that under quasi-stationary wind conditions modeling FMD dispersal as a passive tracer results in a significantly longer hazard distance. Under non-stationary conditions this modeling assumption results in an under-estimation of the hazard distance in comparison to the results of polydisperse aerosol. In these conditions modeling the FMD dispersal as a monodisperse aerosol results in similar under-estimation. The implications of such under-estimation may be severe because it may lead authorities in a threatened area to refrain from taking the necessary protective measures. Therefore, the modeling of the FMD aerosol as a polydisperse aerosol is preferable, leading to realistic estimation both under non-stationary and stationary wind conditions.

Atmospheric dispersion of natural carbon dioxide emissions on Vulcano Island, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granieri, D.; Carapezza, M. L.; Barberi, F.; Ranaldi, M.; Ricci, T.; Tarchini, L.

2014-07-01

La Fossa quiescent volcano and its surrounding area on the Island of Vulcano (Italy) are characterized by intensive, persistent degassing through both fumaroles and diffuse soil emissions. Periodic degassing crises occur, with marked increase in temperature and steam and gas output (mostly CO2) from crater fumaroles and in CO2 soil diffuse emission from the crater area as well as from the volcano flanks and base. The gas hazard of the most inhabited part of the island, Vulcano Porto, was investigated by simulating the CO2 dispersion in the atmosphere under different wind conditions. The DISGAS (DISpersion of GAS) code, an Eulerian model based on advection-diffusion equations, was used together with the mass-consistent Diagnostic Wind Model. Numerical simulations were validated by measurements of air CO2 concentration inside the village and along the crater's rim by means of a Soil CO2 Automatic Station and a Tunable Diode Laser device. The results show that in the village of Vulcano Porto, the CO2 air concentration is mostly due to local soil degassing, while the contribution from the crater gas emission is negligible at the breathing height for humans and always remains well below the lowest indoor CO2 concentration threshold recommended by the health authorities (1000 ppm). Outdoor excess CO2 maxima up to 200 ppm above local background CO2 air concentration are estimated in the center of the village and up to 100 ppm in other zones. However, in some ground excavations or in basements the health code threshold can be exceeded. In the crater area, because of the combined effect of fumaroles and diffuse soil emissions, CO2 air concentrations can reach 5000-7000 ppm in low-wind conditions and pose a health hazard for visitors.

A collision risk model to predict avian fatalities at wind facilities: an example using golden eagles, Aquila chrysaetos

USGS Publications Warehouse

New, Leslie; Bjerre, Emily; Millsap, Brian A.; Otto, Mark C.; Runge, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80th quantile, 6.3). In this case, the increased precision in the fatality prediction lowered the level of authorized take, and thus lowered the required amount of compensatory mitigation.

A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos

PubMed Central

New, Leslie; Bjerre, Emily; Millsap, Brian; Otto, Mark C.; Runge, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80th quantile, 6.3). In this case, the increased precision in the fatality prediction lowered the level of authorized take, and thus lowered the required amount of compensatory mitigation. PMID:26134412

A Collision Risk Model to Predict Avian Fatalities at Wind Facilities: An Example Using Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos.

PubMed

New, Leslie; Bjerre, Emily; Millsap, Brian; Otto, Mark C; Runge, Michael C

2015-01-01

Wind power is a major candidate in the search for clean, renewable energy. Beyond the technical and economic challenges of wind energy development are environmental issues that may restrict its growth. Avian fatalities due to collisions with rotating turbine blades are a leading concern and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding avian collision risk at wind facilities. This uncertainty is not reflected in many models currently used to predict the avian fatalities that would result from proposed wind developments. We introduce a method to predict fatalities at wind facilities, based on pre-construction monitoring. Our method can directly incorporate uncertainty into the estimates of avian fatalities and can be updated if information on the true number of fatalities becomes available from post-construction carcass monitoring. Our model considers only three parameters: hazardous footprint, bird exposure to turbines and collision probability. By using a Bayesian analytical framework we account for uncertainties in these values, which are then reflected in our predictions and can be reduced through subsequent data collection. The simplicity of our approach makes it accessible to ecologists concerned with the impact of wind development, as well as to managers, policy makers and industry interested in its implementation in real-world decision contexts. We demonstrate the utility of our method by predicting golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) fatalities at a wind installation in the United States. Using pre-construction data, we predicted 7.48 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.1, 19.81)). The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the 80th quantile (11.0 eagle fatalities year-1) in their permitting process to ensure there is only a 20% chance a wind facility exceeds the authorized fatalities. Once data were available from two-years of post-construction monitoring, we updated the fatality estimate to 4.8 eagle fatalities year-1 (95% CI: (1.76, 9.4); 80th quantile, 6.3). In this case, the increased precision in the fatality prediction lowered the level of authorized take, and thus lowered the required amount of compensatory mitigation.

Smooth Sailing for Weather Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Through a cooperative venture with NASA's Stennis Space Center, WorldWinds, Inc., developed a unique weather and wave vector map using space-based radar satellite information and traditional weather observations. Called WorldWinds, the product provides accurate, near real-time, high-resolution weather forecasts. It was developed for commercial and scientific users. In addition to weather forecasting, the product's applications include maritime and terrestrial transportation, aviation operations, precision farming, offshore oil and gas operations, and coastal hazard response support. Target commercial markets include the operational maritime and aviation communities, oil and gas providers, and recreational yachting interests. Science applications include global long-term prediction and climate change, land-cover and land-use change, and natural hazard issues. Commercial airlines have expressed interest in the product, as it can provide forecasts over remote areas. WorldWinds, Inc., is currently providing its product to commercial weather outlets.

The effect of wind and eruption source parameter variations on tephra fallout hazard assessment: an example from Vesuvio (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedonio, Giovanni; Costa, Antonio; Scollo, Simona; Neri, Augusto

2015-04-01

Uncertainty in the tephra fallout hazard assessment may depend on different meteorological datasets and eruptive source parameters used in the modelling. We present a statistical study to analyze this uncertainty in the case of a sub-Plinian eruption of Vesuvius of VEI = 4, column height of 18 km and total erupted mass of 5 × 1011 kg. The hazard assessment for tephra fallout is performed using the advection-diffusion model Hazmap. Firstly, we analyze statistically different meteorological datasets: i) from the daily atmospheric soundings of the stations located in Brindisi (Italy) between 1962 and 1976 and between 1996 and 2012, and in Pratica di Mare (Rome, Italy) between 1996 and 2012; ii) from numerical weather prediction models of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Furthermore, we modify the total mass, the total grain-size distribution, the eruption column height, and the diffusion coefficient. Then, we quantify the impact that different datasets and model input parameters have on the probability maps. Results shows that the parameter that mostly affects the tephra fallout probability maps, keeping constant the total mass, is the particle terminal settling velocity, which is a function of the total grain-size distribution, particle density and shape. Differently, the evaluation of the hazard assessment weakly depends on the use of different meteorological datasets, column height and diffusion coefficient.

Developing Coastal Surface Roughness Maps Using ASTER and QuickBird Data Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joe; Berglund, Judith; Davis, Bruce

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation regards one element of a larger project on the integration of NASA science models and data into the Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) Hurricane module for hurricane damage and loss risk assessment. HAZUS-MH is a decision support tool being developed by the National Institute of Building Sciences for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). It includes the Hurricane Module, which employs surface roughness maps made from National Land Cover Data (NLCD) maps to estimate coastal hurricane wind damage and loss. NLCD maps are produced and distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. This presentation discusses an effort to improve upon current HAZUS surface roughness maps by employing ASTER multispectral classifications with QuickBird "ground reference" imagery.

Ground-Based Remote or In Situ Measurement of Vertical Profiles of Wind in the Lower Troposphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clifton, Andrew; Newman, Jennifer

Knowledge of winds in the lower troposphere is essential for a range of applications, including weather forecasting, transportation, natural hazards, and wind energy. This presentation focuses on the measurement of vertical profiles of wind in the lower troposphere for wind energy applications. This presentation introduces the information that wind energy site development and operations require, how it used, and the benefits and problems of current measurements from in-situ measurements and remote sensing. The development of commercial Doppler wind lidar systems over the last 10 years are shown, along with the lessons learned from this experience. Finally, potential developments in windmore » profiling aimed at reducing uncertainty and increasing data availability are introduced.« less

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knocke, Philip C.; Wawrzyniak, Geoffrey G.; Kennedy, Brian M.; Desai, Prasun N.; Parker, TImothy J.; Golombek, Matthew P.; Duxbury, Thomas C.; Kass, David M.

2004-01-01

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

A Cause and A Solution for the Underprediction of Extreme Wave Events in the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellenson, A. N.; Ozkan-Haller, H. T.; Thomson, J.; Brown, A. C.; Haller, M. C.

2016-12-01

Along the coastlines of Washington and Oregon, at least one 10 m wave height event occurs every year, and the strongest storms produce wave heights of 14-15 m. Extremely high wave heights can cause severe damage to coastal infrastructure and pose hazards to stakeholders along the coast. A system which can accurately predict such sea states is important for quantifying risk and aiding in preparation for extreme wave events. This study explores how to optimize forecast model performance for extreme wave events by utilizing different physics packages or wind input in four model configurations. The different wind input products consist of a reanalyzed Global Forecasting System (GFS) wind input and a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) from the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The physics packages are the Tolman-Chalikov (1996) ST2 physics package and the Ardhuin et al (2009) ST4 physics package associated with version 4.18 of WaveWatch III. A hindcast was previously performed to assess the wave character along the Pacific Northwest Coastline for wave energy applications. Inspection of hindcast model results showed that the operational model, which consisted of ST2 physics and GFS wind, underpredicted events where wave height exceeded six meters.The under-prediction is most severe for cases with the combined conditions of a distant cyclone and a strong coastal jet. Three such cases were re-analyzed with the four model configurations. Model output is compared with observations at NDBC buoy 46050, offshore of Newport, OR. The model configuration consisting of ST4 physics package and CFSR wind input performs best as compared with the original model, reducing significant wave height underprediction from 1.25 m to approximately 0.67 m and mean wave direction error from 30 degrees to 17 degrees for wave heights greater than 6 m. Spectral analysis shows that the ST4-CFSR model configuration best resolves southerly wave energy, and all model configurations tend to overestimate northerly wave energy. This directional distinction is important when attempting to identify which atmospheric feature has induced the extreme wave energy.

Calibration of a Direct Detection Doppler Wind Lidar System using a Wind Tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, David

2012-07-01

As a critical stage of a Project to develop an airborne Direct-Detection Doppler Wind Lidar System, it was possible to exploit a Wind Tunnel of the VZLU, Prague, Czech Republic for a comprehensive series of tests against calibrated Air Speed generated by the Wind Tunnel. The initial results from these test sequences will be presented. The rms wind speed errors were of order 0.25 m/sec - very satisfactory for this class of Doppler Wind Lidar measurements. The next stage of this Project will exploit a more highly-developed laser and detection system for measurements of wind shear, wake vortex and other potentially hazardous meteorological phenomena at Airports. Following the end of this Project, key parts of the instrumentation will be used for routine ground-based Doppler Wind Lidar measurements of the troposphere and stratosphere.

Disposition of Orange Herbicide by Incineration. Revised Draft Environmental Statement

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-04-01

a ship , the "Vulcanls," has beer equipped to carry certain hazardous liquid chemical cargoes ...dispersed. For this analyses the dispersion zone is based on a one knot wind speed , "crosswind" of the ship’s course, 10 knot speed for the ship during... shipping company; the wind speed and effective mixing height are very con- servative. For such a low wind speed , it is anticipated that the

GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Lorz, C; Fürst, C; Galic, Z; Matijasic, D; Podrazky, V; Potocic, N; Simoncic, P; Strauch, M; Vacik, H; Makeschin, F

2010-12-01

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L. K.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-11-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Generalized Pareto (GP) model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series X, with corresponding failure time series T, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with rich opportunities for future extensions.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

Countermeasures to Hazardous Chemicals,

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-04-01

Chemical Engineers (AIChE), 3. Hazardous Materials Advisery, Council (HMAC), (not the same as the Memphis/Shelby County HMAC), 4. American Petroleum...retired chemical engineers , will volunteer to avos t the I wcal communities in their pl. ining efforts. S1i !NSTITrTE OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS MANAGEMENT The... chemicals may be considered to be a man-made wind. Such large gas volumes can be produced by blowcr equipment incorporating surplus jet engines . Such blowers

Sea Spray Generation at a Rocky Shoreline

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

exploration, and 47 production platforms—will face increased hazards from freezing sea spray. 48 Based on sea spray observations made with a cloud...produce higher waves (e.g., Perrie et al. 2012; Asplin et 65 al. 2012). Such evolving conditions will present new hazards for artificial structures like...wind and waves themselves will create hazards for 68 these structures, my interest here is the attendant sea spray produced. 69 Jones and Andreas

Mitigating wildland fire hazard using complex network centrality measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I.

2016-12-01

We show how to distribute firebreaks in heterogeneous forest landscapes in the presence of strong wind using complex network centrality measures. The proposed framework is essentially a two-tire one: at the inner part a state-of- the-art Cellular Automata model is used to compute the weights of the underlying lattice network while at the outer part the allocation of the fire breaks is scheduled in terms of a hierarchy of centralities which influence the most the spread of fire. For illustration purposes we applied the proposed framework to a real-case wildfire that broke up in Spetses Island, Greece in 1990. We evaluate the scheme against the benchmark of random allocation of firebreaks under the weather conditions of the real incident i.e. in the presence of relatively strong winds.

Radar research on thunderstorms and lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rust, W. D.; Doviak, R. J.

1982-01-01

Applications of Doppler radar to detection of storm hazards are reviewed. Normal radar sweeps reveal data on reflectivity fields of rain drops, ionized lightning paths, and irregularities in humidity and temperature. Doppler radar permits identification of the targets' speed toward or away from the transmitter through interpretation of the shifts in the microwave frequency. Wind velocity fields can be characterized in three dimensions by the use of two radar units, with a Nyquist limit on the highest wind speeds that may be recorded. Comparisons with models numerically derived from Doppler radar data show substantial agreement in storm formation predictions based on information gathered before the storm. Examples are provided of tornado observations with expanded Nyquist limits, gust fronts, turbulence, lightning and storm structures. Obtaining vertical velocities from reflectivity spectra is discussed.

Soil slip/debris flow localized by site attributes and wind-driven rain in the San Francisco Bay region storm of January 1982

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pike, R.J.; Sobieszczyk, S.

2008-01-01

GIS analysis at 30-m resolution reveals that effectiveness of slope-destabilizing processes in the San Francisco Bay area varies with compass direction. Nearly half the soil slip/debris flows mapped after the catastrophic rainstorm of 3-5 January 1982 occurred on slopes that face S to WSW, whereas fewer than one-quarter have a northerly aspect. Azimuthal analysis of hillside properties for susceptible terrain near the city of Oakland suggests that the skewed aspect of these landslides primarily reflects vegetation type, ridge and valley alignment, and storm-wind direction. Bedrock geology, soil expansivity, and terrain height and gradient also were influential but less so; the role of surface curvature is not wholly resolved. Normalising soil-slip aspect by that of the region's NNW-striking topography shifts the modal azimuth of soil-slip aspect from SW to SE, the direction of origin of winds during the 1982 storm-but opposite that of the prevailing WNW winds. Wind from a constant direction increases rainfall on windward slopes while diminishing it on leeward slopes, generating a modelled difference in hydrologically effective rainfall of up to 2:1 on steep hillsides in the Oakland area. This contrast is consistent with numerical simulations of wind-driven rain and with rainfall thresholds for debris-flow activity. We conclude that storm winds from the SE in January 1982 raised the vulnerability of the Bay region's many S-facing hillsides, most of which are covered in shallow-rooted shrub and grass that offer minimal resistance to soil slip. Wind-driven rainfall also appears to have controlled debris-flow location in a major 1998 storm and probably others. Incorporating this overlooked influence into GIS models of debris-flow likelihood would improve predictions of the hazard in central California and elsewhere.

Analysis of airborne Doppler lidar, Doppler radar and tall tower measurements of atmospheric flows in quiescent and stormy weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bluestein, H. B.; Doviak, R. J.; Eilts, M. D.; Mccaul, E. W.; Rabin, R.; Sundara-Rajan, A.; Zrnic, D. S.

1986-01-01

The first experiment to combine airborne Doppler Lidar and ground-based dual Doppler Radar measurements of wind to detail the lower tropospheric flows in quiescent and stormy weather was conducted in central Oklahoma during four days in June-July 1981. Data from these unique remote sensing instruments, coupled with data from conventional in-situ facilities, i.e., 500-m meteorological tower, rawinsonde, and surface based sensors, were analyzed to enhance understanding of wind, waves and turbulence. The purposes of the study were to: (1) compare winds mapped by ground-based dual Doppler radars, airborne Doppler lidar, and anemometers on a tower; (2) compare measured atmospheric boundary layer flow with flows predicted by theoretical models; (3) investigate the kinematic structure of air mass boundaries that precede the development of severe storms; and (4) study the kinematic structure of thunderstorm phenomena (downdrafts, gust fronts, etc.) that produce wind shear and turbulence hazardous to aircraft operations. The report consists of three parts: Part 1, Intercomparison of Wind Data from Airborne Lidar, Ground-Based Radars and Instrumented 444 m Tower; Part 2, The Structure of the Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layer as Revealed by Lidar and Doppler Radars; and Part 3, Doppler Lidar Observations in Thunderstorm Environments.

40 CFR 270.290 - What general types of information must I keep at my facility?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... and power outages, (5) Prevent undue exposure of personnel to hazardous waste (for example, requiring.... (n) [Reserved] (o) The most recent closure cost estimate for your facility prepared under 40 CFR 267... land uses (residential, commercial, agricultural, recreational). (5) A wind rose (i.e., prevailing wind...

40 CFR 270.290 - What general types of information must I keep at my facility?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... and power outages, (5) Prevent undue exposure of personnel to hazardous waste (for example, requiring.... (n) [Reserved] (o) The most recent closure cost estimate for your facility prepared under 40 CFR 267... land uses (residential, commercial, agricultural, recreational). (5) A wind rose (i.e., prevailing wind...

Sensitivity test and ensemble hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, J.; Costa, A.; De Natale, G.; Di Vito, M. A.; Isaia, R.; Macedonio, G.

2018-02-01

We present the results of a statistical study on tephra dispersal in the case of a reactivation of the Campi Flegrei volcano. To represent the spectrum of possible eruptive sizes, four classes of eruptions were considered. Excluding the lava emission, three classes are explosive (Small, Medium, and Large) and can produce a significant quantity of volcanic ash. Hazard assessments were made through simulations of atmospheric dispersion of ash and lapilli, considering the full variability of winds and eruptive vents. The results are presented in form of conditional hazard curves given the occurrence of specific eruptive sizes, representative members of each size class, and then combined to quantify the conditional hazard given an eruption of any size. The main focus of this analysis was to constrain the epistemic uncertainty (i.e. associated with the level of scientific knowledge of phenomena), in order to provide unbiased hazard estimations. The epistemic uncertainty on the estimation of hazard curves was quantified, making use of scientifically acceptable alternatives to be aggregated in the final results. The choice of such alternative models was made after a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considered different weather databases, alternative modelling of submarine eruptive vents and tephra total grain-size distributions (TGSD) with a different relative mass fraction of fine ash, and the effect of ash aggregation. The results showed that the dominant uncertainty is related to the combined effect of the uncertainty with regard to the fraction of fine particles with respect to the total mass and on how ash aggregation is modelled. The latter is particularly relevant in the case of magma-water interactions during explosive eruptive phases, when a large fraction of fine ash can form accretionary lapilli that might contribute significantly in increasing the tephra load in the proximal areas. The variability induced by the use of different meteorological databases and the selected approach to modelling offshore eruptions were relatively insignificant. The uncertainty arising from the alternative implementations, which would have been neglected in standard (Bayesian) quantifications, were finally quantified by ensemble modelling, and represented by hazard and probability maps produced at different confidence levels.

Terral De Vicuna, a Foehnlike Wind in Semiarid Northern Chile: Meteorological Aspects and Implications for the Fulfillment of Chill Requirements in Deciduous Fruit Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montes, Carlo; Rutllant, Jose A.; Aguirre, Anita; Bascunan-Godoy, Luisa; Julia, Cristobal

2016-01-01

The terral de Vicuña is a warm and dry wind that flows down the Elqui Valley in north-central Chile typically at dawn and early morning. Given that most terral episodes occur in austral winter when chill accumulation by deciduous fruit trees proceeds, negative effects on agriculture may be expected. During 11 (2004-14) winters a meteorological characterization of terral winds and the assessment of their impact on chill accumulation, by the modified Utah Model and the Dynamic Model, were performed. Within this period, 67 terral days (TD) were identified as those in which nighttime to early morning wind direction and speed, air temperature, and relative humidity reached defined thresholds on an hourly basis (terral hours). Most frequent TD featured 6-9 consecutive terral hours; duration is considered here as a proxy for their intensity. Synoptic-scale meteorological analysis shows that 65% of moderate and strong terral events develop as a cold, migratory anticyclone drifts poleward of the study area, coinciding with the onset of a midtropospheric ridge over central Chile, bringing southwest winds on top of the Andes (approximately 500-hPa level). The remaining 35% are either associated with 500-hPa easterlies (foehn like), with prefrontal conditions ahead of a trough driving northwest 500-hPa winds, or with transitional 500-hPa westerlies.Assessments of chill accumulation during TD show that, although present average and cold winter conditions do not represent a major TD hazard to local agriculture, lower chill accumulation associated with anomalously high nocturnal temperatures could be significantly more important during present and future warmer winters.

The Great Plains Wind Power Test Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schroeder, John

2014-01-30

This multi-year, multi-faceted project was focused on the continued development of a nationally-recognized facility for the testing, characterization, and improvement of grid-connected wind turbines, integrated wind-water desalination systems, and related educational and outreach topics. The project involved numerous faculty and graduate students from various engineering departments, as well as others from the departments of Geosciences (in particular the Atmospheric Science Group) and Economics. It was organized through the National Wind Institute (NWI), which serves as an intellectual hub for interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research, commercialization and education related to wind science, wind energy, wind engineering and wind hazard mitigation at Texasmore » Tech University (TTU). Largely executed by an academic based team, the project resulted in approximately 38 peer-reviewed publications, 99 conference presentations, the development/expansion of several experimental facilities, and two provisional patents.« less

Light-Flash Wind-Direction Indicator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zysko, Jan A.

1993-01-01

Proposed wind-direction indicator read easily by distant observers. Indicator emits bright flashes of light separated by interval of time proportional to angle between true north and direction from which wind blowing. Timing of flashes indicates direction of wind. Flashes, from high-intensity stroboscopic lights seen by viewers at distances up to 5 miles or more. Also seen more easily through rain and fog. Indicator self-contained, requiring no connections to other equipment. Power demand satisfied by battery or solar power or both. Set up quickly to provide local surface-wind data for aircraft pilots during landing or hovering, for safety officers establishing hazard zones and safety corridors during handling of toxic materials, for foresters and firefighters conducting controlled burns, and for real-time wind observations during any of variety of wind-sensitive operations.

Predicting the movement of pumice rafts in the South Pacific using GNOME for enhanced navigational warnings and coastal hazard management policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, J.; Bender, M.; Kelly, M.; Walters, C.

2013-12-01

Pumice rafts formed from explosive shallow submarine eruptions in the South Pacific pose a significant hazard to local maritime transportation and global coastal communities. Local concerns include the possibility of individual pumice clasts blocking seawater intake valves of ships, damaging the hull of smaller vessels, and inundating harbors bringing fishing and transport to a standstill. Additionally, pumice rafts can introduce harmful invasive species to delicate coastal communities around the world as they dramatically increase dispersal distances for otherwise benthic or relatively sedentary organisms. Two volcanoes in this region have recently formed pumice rafts: Home Reef volcano (Tonga) in 2006 and Havre Seamount (Kermadec Islands) in 2012. These raft events were used as case studies to test a trajectory prediction model since they occurred during times at which high spatial and temporal resolution satellite data were being collected and/or have been described in peer reviewed literature, both of which were necessary for providing model validation. The model was created using the General NOAA Observational Modeling Environment (GNOME), which utilizes sea surface winds and sea surface height (SSH) datasets to predict the possible trajectory a pollutant might follow on a body of water. Wind and ocean current data were acquired from the SeaWinds and Poseidon-3 sensors on board the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites QuikSCAT and Jason-2. Model outputs showed the 2012 Havre Seamount raft rapidly disperse as it drifted in an ENE direction and the 2006 Home Reef raft drifted quickly in a NW direction towards Papua New Guinea. The 2006 Home Reef prediction model was validated by comparing it to another published model that was based on an integrated surface velocity field in addition to in situ observations. The 2012 Havre Seamount prediction model was validated by spatially and temporally correlating the GNOME trajectory output with moderate-resolution MODIS multispectral data acquired from EOS satellites Aqua and Terra since the raft event has scarcely been studied. Pumice rafts in their early stages are easily observed in MODIS 250 m imagery but after ~5 weeks of exposure to wind shear while drifting, the rafts thinned to <1 km and became extremely difficult to see. Utilization of a higher spatial resolution sensor such as the Operational Land Imager on board LandSat 8 is necessary for imaging and tracking pumice rafts beyond this timeframe, although a significant decrease in temporal resolution is realized. This novel and easily adaptable methodology can be used by island nations and fishery managers to forecast when and where a pumice raft will be, drastically enhancing maritime navigational warnings and response times to eventual pumice landfall.

National SBIR Phase III Commercialization Conference Held in Orlando, Florida on Jun 10 and 11, 1993

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-06-01

design program catted AKCES.BOREVAC, The delivered system will be capable of real gas flows modeling including 3D Navier-Stokes flow, effective...imprrementat’"n of non-thema-l plasma treatment of effluent gases using corona discharge to reduce ermissions of SO2. NGx and other hazardous air...The AWAS is an aircraft mounted sys- tem that provides the flight crew with advance waninq of Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) and Clear Air Turbulence ( CAT

Environmental aspects of large-scale wind-power systems in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robson, A.

1984-11-01

Environmental issues relating to the introduction of large, MW-scale wind turbines at land-based sites in the UK are discussed. Noise, television interference, hazards to bird life, and visual effects are considered. Areas of uncertainty are identified, but enough is known from experience elsewhere in the world to enable the first UK machines to be introduced in a safe and environementally acceptable manner. Research to establish siting criteria more clearly, and significantly increase the potential wind-energy resource is mentioned. Studies of the comparative risk of energy systems are shown to be overpessimistic for UK wind turbines.

Safety considerations in the design and operation of large wind turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reilly, D. H.

1979-01-01

The engineering and safety techniques used to assure the reliable and safe operation of large wind turbine generators utilizing the Mod 2 Wind Turbine System Program as an example is described. The techniques involve a careful definition of the wind turbine's natural and operating environments, use of proven structural design criteria and analysis techniques, an evaluation of potential failure modes and hazards, and use of a fail safe and redundant component engineering philosophy. The role of an effective quality assurance program, tailored to specific hardware criticality, and the checkout and validation program developed to assure system integrity are described.

The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

PubMed

Firestone, Simon M; Cogger, Naomi; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Moloney, Barbara J; Dhand, Navneet K

2012-01-01

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20-25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.

The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

PubMed Central

Firestone, Simon M.; Cogger, Naomi; Ward, Michael P.; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L. M. L.; Moloney, Barbara J.; Dhand, Navneet K.

2012-01-01

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions. PMID:22536366

Controlling Hazardous Releases while Protecting Passengers in Civil Infrastructure Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimer, Sara P.; Katopodes, Nikolaos D.

2015-11-01

The threat of accidental or deliberate toxic chemicals released into public spaces is a significant concern to public safety, and the real-time detection and mitigation of such hazardous contaminants has the potential to minimize harm and save lives. Furthermore, the safe evacuation of occupants during such a catastrophe is of utmost importance. This research develops a comprehensive means to address such scenarios, through both the sensing and control of contaminants, and the modeling of and potential communication to occupants as they evacuate. A computational fluid dynamics model is developed of a simplified public space characterized by a long conduit (e.g. airport terminal) with unidirectional ambient flow that is capable of detecting and mitigating the hazardous contaminant (via boundary ports) over several time horizons using model predictive control optimization. Additionally, a physical prototype is built to test the real-time feasibility of this computational flow control model. The prototype is a blower wind-tunnel with an elongated test section with the capability of sensing (via digital camera) an injected `contaminant' (propylene glycol smoke), and then mitigating that contaminant using actuators (compressed air operated vacuum nozzles) which are operated by a set of pressure regulators and a programmable controller. Finally, an agent-based model is developed to simulate ``agents'' (i.e. building occupants) as they evacuate a public space, and is coupled with the computational flow control model such that agents must interact with a dynamic, threatening environment. NSF-CMMI #0856438.

A Framework for Statewide Analysis of Site Suitability, Energy Estimation, Life Cycle Costs, Financial Feasibility and Environmental Assessment of Wind Farms: A Case Study of Indiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Indraneel

In the last decade, Midwestern states including Indiana have experienced an unprecedented growth in utility scale wind energy farms. For example, by end of 2013, Indiana had 1.5 GW of wind turbines installed, which could provide electrical energy for as many as half-a-million homes. However, there is no statewide systematic framework available for the evaluation of wind farm impacts on endangered species, required necessary setbacks and proximity standards to infrastructure, and life cycle costs. This research is guided to fill that gap and it addresses the following questions. How much land is suitable for wind farm siting in Indiana given the constraints of environmental, ecological, cultural, settlement, physical infrastructure and wind resource parameters? How much wind energy can be obtained? What are the life cycle costs and economic and financial feasibility? Is wind energy production and development in a state an emission free undertaking? The framework developed in the study is applied to a case study of Indiana. A fuzzy logic based AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) spatial site suitability analysis for wind energy is formulated. The magnitude of wind energy that could be sited and installed comprises input for economic and financial feasibility analysis for 20-25 years life cycle of wind turbines in Indiana. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for uncertainty and nonlinearity in various costs and price parameters. Impacts of incentives and cost variables such as production tax credits, costs of capital, and economies of scale are assessed. Further, an economic input-output (IO) based environmental assessment model is developed for wind energy, where costs from financial feasibility analysis constitute the final demand vectors. This customized model for Indiana is used to assess emissions for criteria air pollutants, hazardous air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) across life cycle events of wind turbines. The findings of the case study include that, Indiana has adequate suitable land area available to locate wind farms with installed capacity between 11 and 51 GW if 100 meters high turbines are used. For a 1.5 MW standard wind turbine, financial feasibility analysis shows that production tax credits and property tax abatements are helpful for financial success in Indiana. Also, the wind energy is not entirely emission free if life cycle events of wind turbine manufacturing, production, installation, construction and decommissioning are considered. The research developed a replicable and integrated framework for statewide life cycle analysis of wind energy production accounting for uncertainty into the analyses. Considering the complexity of life cycle analysis and lack of state specific data on performance of wind turbines and wind farms, this study should be considered an intermediate step.

Significant events in low-level flow conditions hazardous to aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, M. B.; Camp, D. W.

1983-01-01

Atmospheric parameters recorded during high surface winds are analyzed to determine magnitude, frequency, duration, and simultaneity of occurrence of low level flow conditions known to be hazardous to the ascent and descent of conventional aircraft and the space shuttle. Graphic and tabular presentations of mean and extreme values and simultaneous occurrences of turbulence (gustiness and a gust factor), wind shear (speed and direction), and vertical motion (updrafts and downdrafts), along with associated temperature inversions are included as function of tower height, layer and/or distance for six 5 sec intervals (one interval every 100 sec) of parameters sampled simultaneously at the rate of 10 speeds, directions and temperatures per second during an approximately 10 min period.

Data Visualization of Invisible Airflow Hazards During Helicopter Takeoff and Landing Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aragon, Cecilia R.

2004-01-01

Many aircraft accidents each year are caused by encounters with unseen airflow hazards near the ground such as vortices, downdrafts, wind shear, microbursts, or other turbulence. While such hazards frequently pose problems to fixed-wing airplanes, they are especially dangerous to helicopters, which often have to operate in confined spaces and under operationally stressful conditions. We are developing flight-deck visualizations of airflow hazards during helicopter takeoff and landing operations, and are evaluating their effectiveness with usability studies. Our hope is.that this work will lead to the production of an airflow hazard detection system for pilots that will save lives.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE PAGES

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-11

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

Influences of low-frequency and other noises produced by wind turbines: An epidemiological literature review.

PubMed

Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Hasunuma, Hideki; Morimatsu, Yoshitaka; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Hara, Kunio; Ishitake, Tatsuya

2017-01-01

Objectives　Due to its' environment-friendly and clean energy characteristics, wind power has been increasingly used globally, particularly in advanced countries. However, concerns about health hazards, especially due to low-frequency and other noises generated from wind turbines, have been reported repeatedly. In order to manage adverse health effects appropriately, regulatory standards or guidelines that consider the health of residents need to be developed. To provide a scientific basis for the development of such regulatory standards and guidelines, this paper conducted a literature review to analyze epidemiological studies involving residents living in the vicinity of wind farms.Methods　Using the PubMED database, epidemiological papers that examined the health effects of noises produced by wind turbines were searched and collected. Additional papers were collected from the abstracts presented at relevant international academic conferences such as the Inter-Noise 2013 and Wind Turbine Noise 2015. An evidence table comprising the study design, subjects, exposure assessment, outcomes, confounders, and research results of each selected study was created.Results　A total of 11 papers were collected (2 of which were abstracts from the international academic conferences). These studies reported outcomes such as perception of noises, annoyance caused by the noises, and the association of the noises with stress and sleeplessness. Significant associations between the noises or annoyance produced by wind turbines and subjective adverse health effects were reported repeatedly. Two studies reported an odds ratio of 1.1 for an increase of 1 dB in the A-weighted sound pressure level as a factor representing the influence level. For other factors, it was not possible to compare the magnitude of the impact among the collected studies. Individual attitudes toward wind power and landscapes, economic benefits of wind farms, visibility of wind turbines, sensitivity to sounds, and concerns over health hazards were reported as confounders.Conclusion　Significant associations between the noises or annoyance produced by wind turbines and subjective adverse health effects were reported repeatedly. However, there was insufficient evidence to conclude whether the annoyance was caused by the psychological response to the construction of wind farms or by the actual exposure to noises generated by wind farms.

Atmospheric Dispersion about a Heavy Gas Vapor Detention System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Seong-Hee

Dispersion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the event of an accidental spill is a major concern in LNG storage and transport safety planning, hazard response, and facility siting. Falcon Series large scale LNG spill experiments were planned by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) as part of a joint government/industry study in 1987 to evaluate the effectiveness of vapor fences as a mitigating technique for accidental release of LNG and to assist in validating wind tunnel and numerical methods for vapor dispersion simulation. Post-field-spill wind-tunnel experiments were performed in Environmental Wind Tunnel (EWT) (1988, 1989) to augment the LNG Vapor Fence Program data obtained during the Falcon Test Series. The program included four different model length scales and two different simulant gases. The purpose of this program is to provide a basis for the analysis of the simulation of physical modeling tests using proper physical modeling techniques and to assist in the development and verification of analytical models. Field data and model data were compared and analyzed by surface pattern comparisons and statistical methods. A layer-averaged slab model developed by Meroney et al. (1988) (FENC23) was expanded to evaluate an enhanced entrainment model proposed for dense gas dispersion including the effect of vapor barriers, and the numerical model was simulated for Falcon tests without the fence and with the vapor fence to examine the effectiveness of vapor detention system on heavy gas dispersion. Model data and the field data were compared with the numerical model data, and degree of similarity between data were assessed.

Modelling hazardous surface hoar layers in the mountain snowpack over space and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Simon Earl

Surface hoar layers are a common failure layer in hazardous snow slab avalanches. Surface hoar crystals (frost) initially form on the surface of the snow, and once buried can remain a persistent weak layer for weeks or months. Avalanche forecasters have difficulty tracking the spatial distribution and mechanical properties of these layers in mountainous terrain. This thesis presents numerical models and remote sensing methods to track the distribution and properties of surface hoar layers over space and time. The formation of surface hoar was modelled with meteorological data by calculating the downward flux of water vapour from the atmospheric boundary layer. The timing of surface hoar formation and the modelled crystal size was verified at snow study sites throughout western Canada. The major surface hoar layers over several winters were predicted with fair success. Surface hoar formation was modelled over various spatial scales using meteorological data from weather forecast models. The largest surface hoar crystals formed in regions and elevation bands with clear skies, warm and humid air, cold snow surfaces, and light winds. Field surveys measured similar regional-scale patterns in surface hoar distribution. Surface hoar formation patterns on different slope aspects were observed, but were not modelled reliably. Mechanical field tests on buried surface hoar layers found layers increased in shear strength over time, but had persistent high propensity for fracture propagation. Layers with large crystals and layers overlying hard melt-freeze crusts showed greater signs of instability. Buried surface hoar layers were simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK and verified with avalanche observations, finding most hazardous surface hoar layers were identified with a structural stability index. Finally, the optical properties of surface hoar crystals were measured in the field with spectral instruments. Large plate-shaped crystals were less reflective at shortwave infrared wavelengths than other common surface snow grains. The methods presented in this thesis were developed into operational products that model hazardous surface hoar layers in western Canada. Further research and refinements could improve avalanche forecasts in regions prone to hazardous surface hoar layers.

An OSSE on Mesoscale Model Assimilation of Simulated HIRAD-Observed Hurricane Surface Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albers, Cerese; Miller, Timothy; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2012-01-01

The hazards of landfalling hurricanes are well known, but progress on improving the intensity forecasts of these deadly storms at landfall has been slow. Many cite a lack of high-resolution data sets taken inside the core of a hurricane, and the lack of reliable measurements in extreme conditions near the surface of hurricanes, as possible reasons why even the most state-of-the-art forecasting models cannot seem to forecast intensity changes better. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for observing hurricanes, and is operated and researched by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This instrument?s purpose is to study the wind field of a hurricane, specifically observing surface wind speeds and rain rates, in what has traditionally been the most difficult areas for other instruments to study; the high wind and heavy rain regions. Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti has studied various data assimilation techniques for hurricane and monsoon rain rates, and this study builds off of results obtained from utilizing his style of physical initializations of rainfall observations, but obtaining reliable observations in heavy rain regions has always presented trouble to our research of high-resolution rainfall forecasting. Reliable data from these regions at such a high resolution and wide swath as HIRAD provides is potentially very valuable to mesoscale forecasting of hurricane intensity. This study shows how the data assimilation technique of Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to incorporate wind, and later rain rate, data into a mesoscale model forecast of hurricane intensity. The study makes use of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) with a simulated HIRAD dataset sampled during a hurricane and uses EnKF to forecast the track and intensity prediction of the hurricane. Comparisons to truth and error metrics are used to assess the model?s forecast performance.

Simulated effects of crop rotations and residue management on wind erosion in Wuchuan, west-central Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Wang, Erda; Harman, Wyatte L; Williams, Jimmy R; Xu, Cheng

2002-01-01

For decades, wind erosion has triggered dust and sand storms, buffeting Beijing and areas of northwestern China to the point of being hazardous to human health while rapidly eroding crop and livestock productivity. The EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) field-scale simulation model was used to assess long-term effects of improved crop rotations and crop residue management practices on wind erosion in Wuchuan County in Inner Mongolia. Simulation results indicate that preserving crop stalks until land is prepared by zone tillage for the next year's crop in lieu of using them as a source of heating fuel or livestock fodder significantly reduces wind erosion by 60%. At the same time, grain and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yields were maintained or improved. Significant reductions in erosion, 35 to 46%, also resulted from delaying stalk removal until late January through late April. Yearly wind erosion was concentrated in April and May, the windiest months. Additionally, the use of alternative crop rotations resulted in differences in wind erosion, largely due to a difference in residue stature and quality and differences in biomass produced. As a result, altering current crop rotation systems by expanding corn (Zea mays L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and millet [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and reducing potato and pea (Pisum sativum L.) production significantly reduced simulated wind erosion, thus diminishing the severity of dust and sand storms in northwestern China. Saving and protecting topsoil over time will sustain land productivity and have long-term implications for improving conditions of rural poverty in the region.

Utilization Probability Map for Migrating Bald Eagles in Northeastern North America: A Tool for Siting Wind Energy Facilities and Other Flight Hazards

PubMed Central

Mojica, Elizabeth K.; Watts, Bryan D.; Turrin, Courtney L.

2016-01-01

Collisions with anthropogenic structures are a significant and well documented source of mortality for avian species worldwide. The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) is known to be vulnerable to collision with wind turbines and federal wind energy guidelines include an eagle risk assessment for new projects. To address the need for risk assessment, in this study, we 1) identified areas of northeastern North America utilized by migrating bald eagles, and 2) compared these with high wind-potential areas to identify potential risk of bald eagle collision with wind turbines. We captured and marked 17 resident and migrant bald eagles in the northern Chesapeake Bay between August 2007 and May 2009. We produced utilization distribution (UD) surfaces for 132 individual migration tracks using a dynamic Brownian bridge movement model and combined these to create a population wide UD surface with a 1 km cell size. We found eagle migration movements were concentrated within two main corridors along the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Coast. Of the 3,123 wind turbines ≥100 m in height in the study area, 38% were located in UD 20, and 31% in UD 40. In the United States portion of the study area, commercially viable wind power classes overlapped with only 2% of the UD category 20 (i.e., the areas of highest use by migrating eagles) and 4% of UD category 40. This is encouraging because it suggests that wind energy development can still occur in the study area at sites that are most viable from a wind power perspective and are unlikely to cause significant mortality of migrating eagles. In siting new turbines, wind energy developers should avoid the high-use migration corridors (UD categories 20 & 40) and focus new wind energy projects on lower-risk areas (UD categories 60–100). PMID:27336482

Utilization Probability Map for Migrating Bald Eagles in Northeastern North America: A Tool for Siting Wind Energy Facilities and Other Flight Hazards.

PubMed

Mojica, Elizabeth K; Watts, Bryan D; Turrin, Courtney L

2016-01-01

Collisions with anthropogenic structures are a significant and well documented source of mortality for avian species worldwide. The bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) is known to be vulnerable to collision with wind turbines and federal wind energy guidelines include an eagle risk assessment for new projects. To address the need for risk assessment, in this study, we 1) identified areas of northeastern North America utilized by migrating bald eagles, and 2) compared these with high wind-potential areas to identify potential risk of bald eagle collision with wind turbines. We captured and marked 17 resident and migrant bald eagles in the northern Chesapeake Bay between August 2007 and May 2009. We produced utilization distribution (UD) surfaces for 132 individual migration tracks using a dynamic Brownian bridge movement model and combined these to create a population wide UD surface with a 1 km cell size. We found eagle migration movements were concentrated within two main corridors along the Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Coast. Of the 3,123 wind turbines ≥100 m in height in the study area, 38% were located in UD 20, and 31% in UD 40. In the United States portion of the study area, commercially viable wind power classes overlapped with only 2% of the UD category 20 (i.e., the areas of highest use by migrating eagles) and 4% of UD category 40. This is encouraging because it suggests that wind energy development can still occur in the study area at sites that are most viable from a wind power perspective and are unlikely to cause significant mortality of migrating eagles. In siting new turbines, wind energy developers should avoid the high-use migration corridors (UD categories 20 & 40) and focus new wind energy projects on lower-risk areas (UD categories 60-100).

Infrared low-level wind shear work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adamson, Pat

1988-01-01

Results of field experiments for the detection of clear air disturbance and low level wind shear utilizing an infrared airborne system are given in vugraph form. The hits, misses and nuisance alarms scores are given. Information is given on the infrared spatial resolution technique. The popular index of aircraft hazard (F= WX over g - VN over AS) is developed for a remote temperature sensor.

An Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2013-01-01

The focal point of the study reported here was the definition and examination of turbulence, wind shear and thunderstorm in relation to aviation accidents. NASA project management desired this information regarding distinct subgroups of atmospheric hazards, in order to better focus their research portfolio. A seven category expansion of Kaplan's turbulence categories was developed, which included wake turbulence, mountain wave turbulence, clear air turbulence, cloud turbulence, convective turbulence, thunderstorm without mention of turbulence, and low altitude wind shear, microburst or turbulence (with no mention of thunderstorms).More than 800 accidents from flights based in the United States during 1987-2008 were selected from a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database. Accidents were selected for inclusion in this study if turbulence, thunderstorm, wind shear or microburst was considered either a cause or a factor in the accident report, and each accident was assigned to only one hazard category. This report summarizes the differences between the categories in terms of factors such as flight operations category, aircraft engine type, the accident's geographic location and time of year, degree of injury to aircraft occupants, aircraft damage, age and certification of the pilot and the phase of flight at the time of the accident.

Design and optimization of resistance wire electric heater for hypersonic wind tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehman, Khurram; Malik, Afzaal M.; Khan, I. J.; Hassan, Jehangir

2012-06-01

The range of flow velocities of high speed wind tunnels varies from Mach 1.0 to hypersonic order. In order to achieve such high speed flows, a high expansion nozzle is employed in the converging-diverging section of wind tunnel nozzle. The air for flow is compressed and stored in pressure vessels at temperatures close to ambient conditions. The stored air is dried and has minimum amount of moisture level. However, when this air is expanded rapidly, its temperature drops significantly and liquefaction conditions can be encountered. Air at near room temperature will liquefy due to expansion cooling at a flow velocity of more than Mach 4.0 in a wind tunnel test section. Such liquefaction may not only be hazardous to the model under test and wind tunnel structure; it may also affect the test results. In order to avoid liquefaction of air, a pre-heater is employed in between the pressure vessel and the converging-diverging section of a wind tunnel. A number of techniques are being used for heating the flow in high speed wind tunnels. Some of these include the electric arc heating, pebble bed electric heating, pebble bed natural gas fired heater, hydrogen burner heater, and the laser heater mechanisms. The most common are the pebble bed storage type heaters, which are inefficient, contaminating and time consuming. A well designed electrically heating system can be efficient, clean and simple in operation, for accelerating the wind tunnel flow up to Mach 10. This paper presents CFD analysis of electric preheater for different configurations to optimize its design. This analysis has been done using ANSYS 12.1 FLUENT package while geometry and meshing was done in GAMBIT.

Numerical modelling for real-time forecasting of marine oil pollution and hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Dominicis, Michela; Pinardi, Nadia; Bruciaferri, Diego; Liubartseva, Svitlana

2015-04-01

Many factors affect the motion and transformation of oil at sea. The most relevant of these are the meteorological and marine conditions at the air-sea interface; the chemical characteristics of the oil; its initial volume and release rates; and, finally, the marine currents at different space scales and timescales. All these factors are interrelated and must be considered together to arrive at an accurate numerical representation of oil evolution and movement in seawater. The oil spill model code MEDSLIK-II is a freely available community model. By using a Lagrangian approach, MEDSLIK-II predicts the transport and diffusion of a surface oil slick governed by water currents, winds and waves, which are provided by operational oceanographic and meteorological models. In addition, the model simulates the oil transformations at sea: evaporation, spreading, dispersion, adhesion to coast and emulsification. The model results have been validated using surface drifters and oil slicks observed by satellite in different regions of the Mediterranean Sea. It is found that the forecast skill largely depends on the accuracy of the Eulerian ocean currents: the operational models give useful estimates of currents, but high-frequency (hourly) and high spatial resolution is required, and the Stokes drift velocity has to be often added, especially in coastal areas. MEDSLIK-II is today available at the Mediterranean scale allowing a possible support to oil spill emergencies. The model has been used during the Costa Concordia disaster, the partial sinking of the Italian cruise ship Costa Concordia when it ran aground at Isola del Giglio, Italy. MEDSLIK-II system was run to produce forecast scenarios of the possible oil spill from the Costa Concordia, to be delivered to the competent authorities, by using the currents provided every day by the operational ocean models available in the area. Moreover, MEDSLIK-II is part of the Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety (MEDESS4MS) system, which is an integrated operational multi-model oil spill prediction service, that can be used by different users to run simulations of oil spills at sea, even in real time, through a web portal. The MEDESS4MS system gathers different oil spill modelling systems and data from meteorological and ocean forecasting systems, as well as operational information on response equipment, together with environmental and socio-economic sensitivity maps. MEDSLIK-II has been also used to provide an assessment of hazard stemming from operational oil ship discharges in the Southern Adriatic and Northern Ionian (SANI) Seas. Operational pollution resulting from ships consists of a movable hazard with a magnitude that changes dynamically as a result of a number of external parameters varying in space and time (temperature, wind, sea currents). Simulations of oil releases have been performed with realistic oceanographic currents and the results show that the oil pollution hazard distribution has an inherent spatial and temporal variability related to the specific flow field variability.

Development/Modernization of an Advanced Non-Light Water Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henneke, Dennis W.; Robinson, James

In 2015, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) teamed with Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) to perform Research and Development (R&D) of next-generation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodologies for the modernization of an advanced non-Light Water Reactor (non-LWR) PRA. This effort built upon a PRA developed in the early 1990s for GEH’s Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (PRISM) Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The work had four main tasks: internal events development modeling the risk from the reactor for hazards occurring at-power internal to the plant; an all hazards scoping review to analyze the risk at a high level from external hazards suchmore » as earthquakes and high winds; an all modes scoping review to understand the risk at a high level from operating modes other than at-power; and risk insights to integrate the results from each of the three phases above. To achieve these objectives, GEH and Argonne used and adapted proven PRA methodologies and techniques to build a modern non-LWR all hazards/all modes PRA. The teams also advanced non-LWR PRA methodologies, which is an important outcome from this work. This report summarizes the project outcomes in two major phases. The first phase presents the methodologies developed for non-LWR PRAs. The methodologies are grouped by scope, from Internal Events At-Power (IEAP) to hazards analysis to modes analysis. The second phase presents details of the PRISM PRA model which was developed as a validation of the non-LWR methodologies. The PRISM PRA was performed in detail for IEAP, and at a broader level for hazards and modes. In addition to contributing methodologies, this project developed risk insights applicable to non-LWR PRA, including focus-areas for future R&D, and conclusions about the PRISM design.« less

The Orlando TDWR testbed and airborne wind shear date comparison results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Steven; Berke, Anthony; Matthews, Michael

1992-01-01

The focus of this talk is on comparing terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) and airborne wind shear data in computing a microburst hazard index called the F factor. The TDWR is a ground-based system for detecting wind shear hazards to aviation in the terminal area. The Federal Aviation Administration will begin deploying TDWR units near 45 airports in late 1992. As part of this development effort, M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory operates under F.A.A. support a TDWR testbed radar in Orlando, FL. During the past two years, a series of flight tests has been conducted with instrumented aircraft penetrating microburst events while under testbed radar surveillance. These tests were carried out with a Cessna Citation 2 aircraft operated by the University of North Dakota (UND) Center for Aerospace Sciences in 1990, and a Boeing 737 operated by NASA Langley Research Center in 1991. A large data base of approximately 60 instrumented microburst penetrations has been obtained from these flights.

Estimation of size of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean using Oceansat-2 scatterometer high-resolution wind products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Neeru; Ha, Doan Thi Thu; Kishtawal, C. M.

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the most intense weather hazards, especially for the coastal regions, as it causes huge devastation through gale winds and torrential floods during landfall. Thus, accurate prediction of TC is of great importance to reduce the loss of life and damage to property. Most of the cyclone track prediction model requires size of TC as an important parameter in order to simulate the vortex. TC size is also required in the impact assessment of TC affected regions. In the present work, the size of TCs formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been estimated using the high resolution surface wind observations from oceansat-2 scatterometer. The estimated sizes of cyclones were compared to the radius of outermost closed isobar (ROCI) values provided by Joint Typhoon warning Center (JTWC) by plotting their histograms and computing the correlation and mean absolute error (MAE). The correlation and MAE between the OSCAT wind based TC size estimation and JTWC-ROCI values was found 0.69 and 33 km, respectively. The results show that the sizes of cyclones estimated by OSCAT winds are in close agreement to the JTWC-ROCI. The ROCI values of JTWC were analyzed to study the variations in the size of tropical cyclones in NIO during different time of the diurnal cycle and intensity stages.

Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching

2007-01-01

A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth s magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance

Observations and modelling of a meteotsunami across the English Channel on 23rd June 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, David; Horsburgh, Kevin; Schultz, David; Hughes, Chris

2017-04-01

Meteotsunami are shallow water waves in the tsunami frequency band, which are generated by sub-mesoscale pressure and wind velocity fluctuations. Whilst documented meteotsunami on the north-western European shelf have not been hazardous, around the world they have caused fatalities and significant economic losses. Previous observational studies suggest that across Western Europe strongly convective storms are meteotsunami-generating. We give evidence for a meteotsunami on 23rd June 2016 along the northern coastline of France, following strongly convective storms. This includes 1-minute temporal resolution tide gauge data, in situ pressure and wind velocities, and infrared satellite images. With an estimated wave height of 0.8 m at Boulogne, this meteotsunami is particularly large compared to previous observations in Western Europe. The tsunami travel times have been estimated using the wavefront method, showing that a single, instantaneous source for the waves is highly unlikely. Using the ocean model Telemac2D, idealised models of pressure and wind have been used to simulate the meteotsunami. The model supports that across the English Channel thunderstorms with north-easterly tracks, moving at the shallow water wave speed, can generate wave amplification through Proudman resonance. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to produce numerically simulated thunderstorms, which have been used to force the Telemac2D ocean model with idealised bathymetries. The WRF-Telemac2D model results also support meteotsunami generation by thunderstorms. To the author's knowledge this is the first time a thunderstorm simulation has been used to produce a meteotsunami-like wave, and indicates that non-hydrostatic, convective atmospheric processes are important for meteotsunami generation. This suggests that with combined high resolution observations and modelling, a meteotsunami forecasting system may become possible in Western Europe.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

Tephra Fallout Hazard Assessment for VEI5 Plinian Eruption at Kuju Volcano, Japan, Using TEPHRA2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Tomohiro; Ikeda, Michiharu; Kishimoto, Hiroshi; Fujita, Koji; Nishizaka, Naoki; Onishi, Kozo

2017-06-01

Tephra fallout has a potential impact on engineered structures and systems at nuclear power plants. We provide the first report estimating potential accumulations of tephra fallout as big as VEI5 eruption from Kuju Volcano and calculated hazard curves at the Ikata Power Plant, using the TEPHRA2 computer program. We reconstructed the eruptive parameters of Kj-P1 tephra fallout deposit based on geological survey and literature review. A series of parameter studies were carried out to determine the best values of empirical parameters, such as diffusion coefficient and the fall time threshold. Based on such a reconstruction, we represent probabilistic analyses which assess the variation in meteorological condition, using wind profiles extracted from a 22 year long wind dataset. The obtained hazard curves and probability maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption were used to discuss the exceeding probability at the site and the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.

Expert assessment of the resilience of drinking water and sanitation systems to climate-related hazards.

PubMed

Luh, Jeanne; Royster, Sarah; Sebastian, Daniel; Ojomo, Edema; Bartram, Jamie

2017-08-15

We conducted an expert assessment to obtain expert opinions on the relative global resilience of ten drinking water and five sanitation technologies to the following six climate-related hazards: drought, decreased inter-annual precipitation, flood, superstorm flood, wind damage, and saline intrusion. Resilience scores ranged from 1.7 to 9.9 out of a maximum resilience of 10, with high scores corresponding to high resilience. We find that for some climate-related hazards, such as drought, technologies demonstrated a large range in resilience, indicating that the choice of water and sanitation technologies is important for areas prone to drought. On the other hand, the range of resilience scores for superstorm flooding was much smaller, particularly for sanitation technologies, suggesting that the choice of technology is less of a determinant of functionality for superstorm flooding as compared to other climate-related hazards. For drinking water technologies, only treated piped utility-managed systems that use surface water had resilience scores >6.0 for all hazards, while protected dug wells were found to be one of the least resilient technologies, consistently scoring <5.0 for all hazards except wind damage. In general, sanitation technologies were found to have low to medium resilience, suggesting that sanitation systems need to be adapted to ensure functionality during and after climate-related hazards. The results of the study can be used to help communities decide which technologies are best suited for the climate-related challenges they face and help in future adaptation planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technical, economic and legal aspects of wind energy utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obermair, G. M.; Jarass, L.

Potentially problematical areas of the implementation of wind turbines for electricity production in West Germany are identified and briefly discussed. Variations in wind generator output due to source variability may cause power regulation difficulties in the grid and also raise uncertainties in utility capacity planning for new construction. Catastrophic machine component failures, such as a thrown blade, are hazardous to life and property, while lulls in the resource can cause power regulation capabilities only when grid penetration has reached significant levels. Economically, the lack of actual data from large scale wind projects is cited as a barrier to accurate cost comparisons of wind-derived power relative to other generating sources, although breakeven costs for wind power have been found to be $2000/kW installed capacity, i.e., a marginal cost of $0.10/kW.

KSC-04pd1716

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Space Station Processing Facility, modules and equipment are being covered in plastic in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. KSC workers also have powered down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closed their payload bay doors and stowed the landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The SSPF can withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and wind gusts up to 132 mph. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

3D flash lidar performance in flight testing on the Morpheus autonomous, rocket-propelled lander to a lunar-like hazard field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roback, Vincent E.; Amzajerdian, Farzin; Bulyshev, Alexander E.; Brewster, Paul F.; Barnes, Bruce W.

2016-05-01

For the first time, a 3-D imaging Flash Lidar instrument has been used in flight to scan a lunar-like hazard field, build a 3-D Digital Elevation Map (DEM), identify a safe landing site, and, in concert with an experimental Guidance, Navigation, and Control system, help to guide the Morpheus autonomous, rocket-propelled, free-flying lander to that safe site on the hazard field. The flight tests served as the TRL 6 demo of the Autonomous Precision Landing and Hazard Detection and Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) system and included launch from NASA-Kennedy, a lunar-like descent trajectory from an altitude of 250m, and landing on a lunar-like hazard field of rocks, craters, hazardous slopes, and safe sites 400m down-range. The ALHAT project developed a system capable of enabling safe, precise crewed or robotic landings in challenging terrain on planetary bodies under any ambient lighting conditions. The Flash Lidar is a second generation, compact, real-time, air-cooled instrument. Based upon extensive on-ground characterization at flight ranges, the Flash Lidar was shown to be capable of imaging hazards from a slant range of 1 km with an 8 cm range precision and a range accuracy better than 35 cm, both at 1-σ. The Flash Lidar identified landing hazards as small as 30 cm from the maximum slant range which Morpheus could achieve (450 m); however, under certain wind conditions it was susceptible to scintillation arising from air heated by the rocket engine and to pre-triggering on a dust cloud created during launch and transported down-range by wind.

3-D Flash Lidar Performance in Flight Testing on the Morpheus Autonomous, Rocket-Propelled Lander to a Lunar-Like Hazard Field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roback, Vincent E.; Amzajerdian, Farzin; Bulyshev, Alexander E.; Brewster, Paul F.; Barnes, Bruce W.

2016-01-01

For the first time, a 3-D imaging Flash Lidar instrument has been used in flight to scan a lunar-like hazard field, build a 3-D Digital Elevation Map (DEM), identify a safe landing site, and, in concert with an experimental Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) system, help to guide the Morpheus autonomous, rocket-propelled, free-flying lander to that safe site on the hazard field. The flight tests served as the TRL 6 demo of the Autonomous Precision Landing and Hazard Detection and Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) system and included launch from NASA-Kennedy, a lunar-like descent trajectory from an altitude of 250m, and landing on a lunar-like hazard field of rocks, craters, hazardous slopes, and safe sites 400m down-range. The ALHAT project developed a system capable of enabling safe, precise crewed or robotic landings in challenging terrain on planetary bodies under any ambient lighting conditions. The Flash Lidar is a second generation, compact, real-time, air-cooled instrument. Based upon extensive on-ground characterization at flight ranges, the Flash Lidar was shown to be capable of imaging hazards from a slant range of 1 km with an 8 cm range precision and a range accuracy better than 35 cm, both at 1-delta. The Flash Lidar identified landing hazards as small as 30 cm from the maximum slant range which Morpheus could achieve (450 m); however, under certain wind conditions it was susceptible to scintillation arising from air heated by the rocket engine and to pre-triggering on a dust cloud created during launch and transported down-range by wind.

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, Miguel A.; Delgado-Granados, Hugo; Dingwell, Donald B.

2012-11-01

During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles' maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum "launching" conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

Wind Tunnel Tests Conducted to Develop an Icing Flight Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratvasky, Thomas P.

2001-01-01

As part of NASA's Aviation Safety Program goals to reduce aviation accidents due to icing, NASA Glenn Research Center is leading a flight simulator development activity to improve pilot training for the adverse flying characteristics due to icing. Developing flight simulators that incorporate the aerodynamic effects of icing will provide a critical element in pilot training programs by giving pilots a pre-exposure of icing-related hazards, such as ice-contaminated roll upset or tailplane stall. Integrating these effects into training flight simulators will provide an accurate representation of scenarios to develop pilot skills in unusual attitudes and loss-of-control events that may result from airframe icing. In order to achieve a high level of fidelity in the flight simulation, a series of wind tunnel tests have been conducted on a 6.5-percent-scale Twin Otter aircraft model. These wind tunnel tests were conducted at the Wichita State University 7- by 10-ft wind tunnel and Bihrle Applied Research's Large Amplitude Multiple Purpose Facility in Neuburg, Germany. The Twin Otter model was tested without ice (baseline), and with two ice configurations: 1) Ice on the horizontal tail only; 2) Ice on the wing, horizontal tail, and vertical tail. These wind tunnel tests resulted in data bases of aerodynamic forces and moments as functions of angle of attack; sideslip; control surface deflections; forced oscillations in the pitch, roll, and yaw axes; and various rotational speeds. A limited amount of wing and tail surface pressure data were also measured for comparison with data taken at Wichita State and with flight data. The data bases from these tests will be the foundation for a PC-based Icing Flight Simulator to be delivered to Glenn in fiscal year 2001.

NASA airborne radar wind shear detection algorithm and the detection of wet microbursts in the vicinity of Orlando, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britt, Charles L.; Bracalente, Emedio M.

1992-01-01

The algorithms used in the NASA experimental wind shear radar system for detection, characterization, and determination of windshear hazard are discussed. The performance of the algorithms in the detection of wet microbursts near Orlando is presented. Various suggested algorithms that are currently being evaluated using the flight test results from Denver and Orlando are reviewed.

Electrostatic Charging of Lunar Dust by UV Photoelectric Emissions and Solar Wind Electrons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbas, Mian M.; Tankosic, Dragana; Spann, James f.; LeClair, Andre C.; Dube, Michael J.

2008-01-01

The ubiquitous presence of dust in the lunar environment with its high adhesive characteristics has been recognized to be a major safety issue that must be addressed in view of its hazardous effects on robotic and human exploration of the Moon. The reported observations of a horizon glow and streamers at the lunar terminator during the Apollo missions are attributed to the sunlight scattered by the levitated lunar dust. The lunar surface and the dust grains are predominantly charged positively by the incident UV solar radiation on the dayside and negatively by the solar wind electrons on the night-side. The charged dust grains are levitated and transported over long distances by the established electric fields. A quantitative understanding of the lunar dust phenomena requires development of global dust distribution models, based on an accurate knowledge of lunar dust charging properties. Currently available data of lunar dust charging is based on bulk materials, although it is well recognized that measurements on individual dust grains are expected to be substantially different from the bulk measurements. In this paper we present laboratory measurements of charging properties of Apollo 11 & 17 dust grains by UV photoelectric emissions and by electron impact. These measurements indicate substantial differences of both qualitative and quantitative nature between dust charging properties of individual micron/submicron sized dust grains and of bulk materials. In addition, there are no viable theoretical models available as yet for calculation of dust charging properties of individual dust grains for both photoelectric emissions and electron impact. It is thus of paramount importance to conduct comprehensive measurements for charging properties of individual dust grains in order to develop realistic models of dust processes in the lunar atmosphere, and address the hazardous issues of dust on lunar robotic and human missions.

Increased Surface Wind Speeds Follow Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mioduszewski, J.; Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, M.; Holland, M. M.; Landrum, L.

2017-12-01

Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the 21st century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic Basin, due to changes in atmospheric stability and/or baroclinicity. Prior research on future Arctic wind changes is limited and has focused mainly on the practical impacts on wave heights in certain seasons. Here we attempt to identify patterns and likely mechanisms responsible for surface wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic, particularly those associated with sea ice loss in the marginal ice zone. Sea level pressure, near-surface (10 m) and upper-air (850 hPa) wind speeds, and lower-level dynamic and thermodynamic variables from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) were analyzed for the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 to facilitate comparison between a present-day and future climate. Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 90th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by over 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (locally over 20 ºC warmer in autumn and winter). A muted pattern of these future changes is simulated in CESM-LE historical runs from 1920-2005. The enhanced winds near the surface are mostly collocated with weaker winds above the boundary layer during autumn and winter, implying more vigorous vertical mixing and a drawdown of high-momentum air.The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal hazards and the potential for a positive feedback with sea ice by generating higher winds and greater wave activity. Our findings suggest that increasing winds, along with retreating sea ice and thawing permafrost, represent another important contributor to the growing problem of Arctic coastal erosion.

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Modeling of Wake-vortex Aircraft Encounters. Appendix B

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Sonya T.

1999-01-01

There are more people passing through the world's airports today than at any other time in history. With this increase in civil transport, airports are becoming capacity limited. In order to increase capacity and thus meet the demands of the flying public, the number of runways and number of flights per runway must be increased. In response to the demand, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in conjunction with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), airport operators, and the airline industry are taking steps to increase airport capacity without jeopardizing safety. Increasing the production per runway increases the likelihood that an aircraft will encounter the trailing wake-vortex of another aircraft. The hazard of a wake-vortex encounter is that heavy load aircraft can produce high intensity wake turbulence, through the development of its wing-tip vortices. A smaller aircraft following in the wake of the heavy load aircraft will experience redistribution of its aerodynamic load. This creates a safety hazard for the smaller aircraft. Understanding this load redistribution is of great importance, particularly during landing and take-off. In this research wake-vortex effects on an encountering 10% scale model of the B737-100 aircraft are modeled using both strip theory and vortex-lattice modeling methods. The models are then compared to wind tunnel data that was taken in the 30ft x 60ft wind tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Comparisons are made to determine if the models will have acceptable accuracy when parts of the geometry are removed, such as the horizontal stabilizer and the vertical tail. A sensitivity analysis was also performed to observe how accurately the models could match the experimental data if there was a 10% error in the circulation strength. It was determined that both models show accurate results when the wing, horizontal stabilizer, and vertical tail were a part of the geometry. When the horizontal stabilizer and vertical tail were removed there were difficulties modeling the sideforce coefficient and pitching moment. With the removal of only the vertical tail unacceptable errors occurred when modeling the sideforce coefficient and yawing moment. Lift could not be modeled with either the full geometry or the reduced geometry attempts.

Environmental aspects of large-scale wind-power systems in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robson, A.

1983-12-01

Environmental issues relating to the introduction of large, MW-scale wind turbines at land-based sites in the U.K. are discussed. Areas of interest include noise, television interference, hazards to bird life and visual effects. A number of areas of uncertainty are identified, but enough is known from experience elsewhere in the world to enable the first U.K. machines to be introduced in a safe and environmentally acceptable manner. Research currently under way will serve to establish siting criteria more clearly, and could significantly increase the potential wind-energy resource. Certain studies of the comparative risk of energy systems are shown to be overpessimistic for U.K. wind turbines.

Grounding, bonding and shielding for safety and signal interference control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forsyth, T. J.; Bautista, AL

1990-01-01

Aircraft models and other aerodynamic tests are conducted at the NASA Ames Research Center National Full Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC). The models, tested in NFAC's wind tunnels, are sometimes heavily instrumented and are connected to a data acquisition system. Besides recording data for evaluation, certain critical information must be monitored to be sure the model is within operational limits. The signals for these parameters are for the most part low-level signals that require good instrumentation amplification. These amplifiers need to be grounded and shielded for common mode rejection and noise reduction. The instrumentation also needs to be grounded to prevent electrical shock hazards. The purpose of this paper is to present an understanding of the principles and purpose of grounding, bonding, and shielding.

Sensitivity tests and ensemble hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; De Natale, Giuseppe; Di Vito, Mauro; Isaia, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni

2017-04-01

We present the results of a statistical study on tephra dispersion in the case of reactivation of the Campi Flegrei volcano. We considered the full spectrum of possible eruptions, in terms of size and position of eruptive vents. To represent the spectrum of possible eruptive sizes, four classes of eruptions were considered. Of those only three are explosive (small, medium, and large) and can produce a significant quantity of volcanic ash. Hazard assessments are made through dispersion simulations of ash and lapilli, considering the full variability of winds, eruptive vents, and eruptive sizes. The results are presented in form of four families of hazard curves conditioned to the occurrence of an eruption: 1) small eruptive size from any vent; 2) medium eruptive size from any vent; 3) large eruptive size from any vent; 4) any size from any vent. The epistemic uncertainty (i.e. associated with the level of scientific knowledge of phenomena) on the estimation of hazard curves was quantified making use of alternative scientifically acceptable approaches. The choice of such alternative models is made after a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considered different weather databases, alternative modelling of the possible opening of eruptive vents, tephra total grain-size distributions (TGSD), relative mass of fine particles, and the effect of aggregation. The results of this sensitivity analyses show that the dominant uncertainty is related to the choice of TGSD, mass of fine ash, and potential effects of ash aggregation. The latter is particularly relevant in case of magma-water interaction during an eruptive phase, when most of the fine ash can form accretionary lapilli that could contribute significantly in increasing the tephra load in the proximal region. Relatively insignificant is the variability induced by the use of different weather databases. The hazard curves, together with the quantification of epistemic uncertainty, were finally calculated through a statistical model based on ensemble mixing of selected alternative models, e.g. different choices on the estimate of the total erupted mass, mass of fine ash, effects of aggregation, etc. Hazard and probability maps were produced at different confidence levels compared to the epistemic uncertainty (mean, median, 16th percentile, and 84th percentile).

Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - utility for the fire brigades.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, S.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.

2009-09-01

Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios”), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Viennese fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program of the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. For the purpose of our study the following models were tested and compared: ALOHA (Areal Location of Hazardous atmosphere, EPA), MEMPLEX (Keudel av-Technik GmbH), Trace (Safer System), Breeze (Trinity Consulting), SAM (Engineering office Lohmeyer). A set of reference scenarios for Chlorine, Ammoniac, Butane and Petrol were proceed, with the models above, in order to predict and estimate the human exposure during the event. Furthermore, the application of the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in case of toxic release was investigated. INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) data are calculated operationally with 1 km horizontal resolution and based on the weather forecast model ALADIN. The meteorological field's analysis with INCA include: Temperature, Humidity, Wind, Precipitation, Cloudiness and Global Radiation. In the frame of the project INCA data were compared with measurements from the meteorological observational network, conducted at traffic-near sites in Vienna. INCA analysis and very short term forecast fields (up to 6 hours) are found to be an advanced possibility to provide on-line meteorological input for the model package used by the fire brigade. Since the input requirements differ from model to model, and the outputs are based on unequal criteria for toxic area and exposure, a high degree of caution in the interpretation of the model results is required - especially in the case of slow wind speeds, stable atmospheric condition, and flow deflection by buildings in the urban area or by complex topography.

Modern tornado design of nuclear and other potentially hazardous facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevenson, J.D.; Zhao, Y.

Tornado wind loads and other tornado phenomena, including tornado missiles and differential pressure effects, have not usually been considered in the design of conventional industrial, commercial, or residential facilities in the United States; however, tornado resistance has often become a design requirement for certain hazardous facilities, such as large nuclear power plants and nuclear materials and waste storage facilities, as well as large liquefied natural gas storage facilities. This article provides a review of current procedures for the design of hazardous industrial facilities to resist tornado effects. 23 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs.

Losses Assessment of Crops due to Typhoon Disaster in China Coastal Areas —— A Case Study of Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, W.; Fang, W.

2015-12-01

Vulnerability which quantifies the loss ratio under different hazard intensity is an important feature of the natural disaster system and has important significance to natural disaster risk assessment. Agriculture is an outdoor industry with high risk of meteorological disasters. The strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge are main typhoon hazard factors to crops. To provide a quantitative research method for the loss evaluation of crops due to typhoon disaster we first revised two vulnerability curves for crops under comprehensive intensity of typhoon based on the simulated hazard data and loss data related to historical typhoon events landing on China from 1949 to 2014；and then established a storm surge vulnerability matrix of crops regarding Zhanjiang City of Guangdong Province as the study area ; finally, we put forward three storm surge fragility curves for crops representing different states of loss. The results can effectively describe the typhoon vulnerability for crops in China coastal areas so as to provide the input to post-disaster loss assessments and catastrophe modeling applications.

Coastal Hazard due to Tropical Cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Casarin, R.; Mendoza-Baldwin, E.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante-MAncera, E.; Ruíz-Rentería, F.

2013-05-01

The Mexican coast is hit every year by at least 3 cyclones and it is affected for nearly 59 hours a year on average; this induces undesirable consequences, such as coastal erosion and flooding. To evaluate the hazard to which the coastal zone is exposes, a historical characterization of atmospheric conditions (surface winds and pressure conditions of the storms), waves (wave heights and their associated wave periods) and flooding levels due to tropical storms for more than 60 years is presented. The atmospheric and wave conditions were evaluated using a modification of the original parametric Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model by Bretschneider (1990) and Holland (1980) as presented by Silva, et al. (2002). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes were estimated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite volume model to evaluate the storm surge, Posada et al. (2008). The cyclone model was compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of the National Data Buoy Center-NOAA and some data recorded in shallow waters near Cancun, Mexico and the flooding model was compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico; both models gave good results. For the extreme analyses of wind, wave heights and maximum flooding levels on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Weibull cumulative distribution function and numerical results for different return periods are provided. The historical occurrence of tropical storms is also revised as some studies indicate that the average intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing; no definite trends pointing to an increase in storm frequency or intensity were found. What was in fact found is that although there are more cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and these persist longer, the intensity of the cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean is greater affecting. In any case, the strong necessity of avoiding storm induced coastal damage (erosion and flooding) is reflected in numerous works, such as this one, which aim to better manage the coastal area and reduce its vulnerability to hurricanes. References Bretschneider, C.L., 1990. Tropical Cyclones. Handbook of Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Gulf Publishing Co., Vol. 1, 249-370. Holland, G.L., 1980. An analytical model of wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108, 1212-1218. Posada, G., Silva, R. & de Brye, S. 2008. Three dimensional hydrodynamic model with multiquadtree meshes. American Journal of Environmental Sciences. 4(3): 209-222. Silva, R., Govaere, G., Salles, P., Bautista, G. & Díaz, G. 2002. Oceanographic vulnerability to hurricanes on the Mexican coast. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, pp. 39-51.

KSC-04pd1714

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Space Station Processing Facility, workers cover with plastic the Multi-Purpose Logistics Module Donatello in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other modules and equipment are being covered as well. Workers also have powered down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closed their payload bay doors and stowed the landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The SSPF can withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and wind gusts up to 132 mph. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1712

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Space Station Processing Facility, workers cover with plastic the U.S. Node 2 in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other modules and equipment are being covered as well. Workers also have powered down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closed their payload bay doors and stowed the landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The SSPF can withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and wind gusts up to 132 mph. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1713

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Space Station Processing Facility, workers cover with plastic the Multi-Purpose Logistics Module Raffaello in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other modules and equipment are being covered as well. Workers also have powered down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closed their payload bay doors and stowed the landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The SSPF can withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and wind gusts up to 132 mph. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1715

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Space Station Processing Facility, modules wrapped in plastic line one wall. The modules and equipment are being covered in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. KSC workers also have powered down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closed their payload bay doors and stowed the landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The SSPF can withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and wind gusts up to 132 mph. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

Comparative Analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB3GEO Tools for the Forecast of the Fluxes of High-Energy Electrons at GEO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balikhin, M. A.; Rodriguez, J. V.; Boynton, R. J.; Walker, S. N.; Aryan, Homayon; Sibeck, D. G.; Billings, S. A.

2016-01-01

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) observations at L1. The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast.

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB3GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO.

PubMed

Balikhin, M A; Rodriguez, J V; Boynton, R J; Walker, S N; Aryan, H; Sibeck, D G; Billings, S A

2016-01-01

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB 3 GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB 3 GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B z observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB 3 GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB 3 GEO forecast.

Study of the Mutual Interaction Between a Wing Wake and an Encountering Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walden, A. B.; vanDam, C. P.

1996-01-01

In an effort to increase airport productivity, several wind-tunnel and flight-test programs are currently underway to determine safe reductions in separation standards between aircraft. These programs are designed to study numerous concepts from the characteristics and detection of wake vortices to the wake-vortex encounter phenomenon. As part of this latter effort, computational tools are being developed and utilized as a means of modeling and verifying wake-vortex hazard encounters. The objective of this study is to assess the ability of PMARC, a low-order potential-flow panel method, to predict the forces and moments imposed on a following business-jet configuration by a vortex interaction. Other issues addressed include the investigation of several wake models and their ability to predict wake shape and trajectory, the validity of the velocity field imposed on the following configuration, modeling techniques and the effect of the high-lift system and the empennage. Comparisons with wind-tunnel data reveal that PMARC predicts the characteristics for the clean wing-body following configuration fairly well. Non-linear effects produced by the addition of the high-lift system and empennage, however, are not so well predicted.

Large Eddy Simulations of Severe Convection Induced Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nash'at; Proctor, Fred

2011-01-01

Convective storms can pose a serious risk to aviation operations since they are often accompanied by turbulence, heavy rain, hail, icing, lightning, strong winds, and poor visibility. They can cause major delays in air traffic due to the re-routing of flights, and by disrupting operations at the airports in the vicinity of the storm system. In this study, the Terminal Area Simulation System is used to simulate five different convective events ranging from a mesoscale convective complex to isolated storms. The occurrence of convection induced turbulence is analyzed from these simulations. The validation of model results with the radar data and other observations is reported and an aircraft-centric turbulence hazard metric calculated for each case is discussed. The turbulence analysis showed that large pockets of significant turbulence hazard can be found in regions of low radar reflectivity. Moderate and severe turbulence was often found in building cumulus turrets and overshooting tops.

Reliability and quality assurance on the MOD 2 wind system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, W. E. B.; Jones, B. G.

1981-01-01

The Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance (R&QA) approach developed for the largest wind turbine generator, the Mod 2, is described. The R&QA approach assures that the machine is not hazardous to the public or to the operating personnel, is operated unattended on a utility grid, demonstrates reliable operation, and helps establish the quality assurance and maintainability requirements for future wind turbine projects. The significant guideline consisted of a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) during the design phase, hardware inspections during parts fabrication, and three simple documents to control activities during machine construction and operation.

Fire hazard after prescribed burning in a gorse shrubland: implications for fuel management.

PubMed

Marino, Eva; Guijarro, Mercedes; Hernando, Carmen; Madrigal, Javier; Díez, Carmen

2011-03-01

Prescribed burning is commonly used to prevent accumulation of biomass in fire-prone shrubland in NW Spain. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the efficacy of the technique in reducing fire hazard in these ecosystems. Fire hazard in burned shrubland areas will depend on the initial capacity of woody vegetation to recover and on the fine ground fuels existing after fire. To explore the effect that time since burning has on fire hazard, experimental tests were performed with two fuel complexes (fine ground fuels and regenerated shrubs) resulting from previous prescribed burnings conducted in a gorse shrubland (Ulex europaeus L.) one, three and five years earlier. A point-ignition source was used in burning experiments to assess ignition and initial propagation success separately for each fuel complex. The effect of wind speed was also studied for shrub fuels, and several flammability parameters were measured. Results showed that both ignition and initial propagation success of fine ground fuels mainly depended on fuel depth and were independent of time since burning, although flammability parameters indicated higher fire hazard three years after burning. In contrast, time since burning increased ignition and initial propagation success of regenerated shrub fuels, as well as the flammability parameters assessed, but wind speed had no significant effect. The combination of results of fire hazard for fine ground fuels and regenerated shrubs according to the variation in relative coverage of each fuel type after prescribed burning enabled an assessment of integrated fire hazard in treated areas. The present results suggest that prescribed burning is a very effective technique to reduce fire hazard in the study area, but that fire hazard will be significantly increased by the third year after burning. These results are valuable for fire prevention and fuel management planning in gorse shrubland areas. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Natural phenomena hazards design and evaluation criteria for Department of Energy Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-01-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) has issued an Order 420.1 which establishes policy for its facilities in the event of natural phenomena hazards (NPH) along with associated NPH mitigation requirements. This DOE Standard gives design and evaluation criteria for NPH effects as guidance for implementing the NPH mitigation requirements of DOE Order 420.1 and the associated implementation Guides. These are intended to be consistent design and evaluation criteria for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of these criteria is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena suchmore » as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. These criteria apply to the design of new facilities and the evaluation of existing facilities. They may also be used for modification and upgrading of existing facilities as appropriate. The design and evaluation criteria presented herein control the level of conservatism introduced in the design/evaluation process such that earthquake, wind, and flood hazards are treated on a consistent basis. These criteria also employ a graded approach to ensure that the level of conservatism and rigor in design/evaluation is appropriate for facility characteristics such as importance, hazards to people on and off site, and threat to the environment. For each natural phenomena hazard covered, these criteria consist of the following: Performance Categories and target performance goals as specified in the DOE Order 420.1 NPH Implementation Guide, and DOE-STD-1 021; specified probability levels from which natural phenomena hazard loading on structures, equipment, and systems is developed; and design and evaluation procedures to evaluate response to NPH loads and criteria to assess whether or not computed response is permissible.« less

Supercharging of the Lunar Surface by Solar Wind Halo Electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stubbs, T. J.; Farrell, W. M.; Collier, M. R.; Halekas, J. S.; Delory, G. T.; Holland, M. P.; Vondrak, R. R.

2007-12-01

Lunar surface potentials can reach several kilovolts negative during Solar Energetic Particle (SEPs) events, as indicated by recent analysis of data from the Lunar Prospector Electron Reflectometer (LP/ER). The lunar surface- plasma interactions that result in such extreme surface potentials are poorly characterized and understood. Extreme lunar surface charging, and the associated electrostatic discharges and transport of charged dust, will likely present significant hazards to future human explorers. This is of particular concern near the terminator and polar regions, such as the South Pole/Aiken Basin site planned for NASA's manned outpost. It is the flux of electrons from the ambient plasma that charges the surface of the Moon to negative potentials. In the solar wind, the electron temperature is typically ~10 eV which tends to charge the lunar surface to ~100 V negative in shadow. However, during space weather events the solar wind electrons are often better described by the sum of two Maxwellian distributions, referred to as the "core" and "halo" components. The core electrons are relatively cool and dense (e.g., ~10 eV and ~10/cc), whereas the halo electrons are hot and tenuous (e.g., ~100 eV and ~0.1/cc). Despite, the tenuous nature of the halo electrons, our surface charging model - using core and halo electron data derived from the Solar Wind Experiment (SWE) aboard the Wind spacrcraft - predicts that they are capable of "supercharging" the lunar surface to kilovolt potentials during space weather events, which could explain the LP/ER observations.

Diffraction and Dissipation of Atmospheric Waves in the Vicinity of Caustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin, O. A.

2015-12-01

A large and increasing number of ground-based and satellite-borne instruments has been demonstrated to reliably reveal ionospheric manifestations of natural hazards such as large earthquakes, strong tsunamis, and powerful tornadoes. To transition from detection of ionospheric manifestations of natural hazards to characterization of the hazards for the purposes of improving early warning systems and contributing to disaster recovery, it is necessary to relate quantitatively characteristics of the observed ionospheric disturbances and the underlying natural hazard and, in particular, accurately model propagation of atmospheric waves from the ground or ocean surface to the ionosphere. The ray theory has been used extensively to model propagation of atmospheric waves and proved to be very efficient in elucidating the effects of atmospheric variability on ionospheric signatures of natural hazards. However, the ray theory predicts unphysical, divergent values of the wave amplitude and needs to be modified in the vicinity of caustics. This paper presents an asymptotic theory that describes diffraction, focusing and increased dissipation of acoustic-gravity waves in the vicinity of caustics and turning points. Air temperature, viscosity, thermal conductivity, and wind velocity are assumed to vary gradually with height and horizontal coordinates, and slowness of these variations determines the large parameter of the problem. Uniform asymptotics of the wave field are expressed in terms of Airy functions and their derivatives. The geometrical, or Berry, phase, which arises in the consistent WKB approximation for acoustic-gravity waves, plays an important role in the caustic asymptotics. In addition to the wave field in the vicinity of the caustic, these asymptotics describe wave reflection from the caustic and the evanescent wave field beyond the caustic. The evanescent wave field is found to play an important role in ionospheric manifestations of tsunamis.

The Role of Deposition in Limiting the Hazard Extent of Dense-Gas Plumes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dillon, M B

2008-01-29

Accidents involving release of large (multi-ton) quantities of toxic industrial chemicals often yield far fewer fatalities and causalities than standard, widely-used assessment and emergency response models predict. While recent work has suggested that models should incorporate the protection provided by buildings, more refined health effect methodologies, and more detailed consideration of the release process; investigations into the role of deposition onto outdoor surfaces has been lacking. In this paper, we examine the conditions under which dry deposition may significantly reduce the extent of the downwind hazard zone. We provide theoretical arguments that in congested environments (e.g. suburbs, forests), deposition tomore » vertical surfaces (such as building walls) may play a significant role in reducing the hazard zone extent--particularly under low-wind, stable atmospheric conditions which are often considered to be the worst-case scenario for these types of releases. Our analysis suggests that in these urban or suburban environments, the amount of toxic chemicals lost to earth's surface is typically a small fraction of overall depositional losses. For isothermal gases such as chlorine, the degree to which the chemicals stick to (or react with) surfaces (i.e. surface resistance) is demonstrated to be a key parameter controlling hazard extent (the maximum distance from the release at which hazards to human health are expected). This analysis does not consider the depositional effects associated with particulate matter or gases that undergo significant thermal change in the atmosphere. While no controlled experiments were available to validate our hypothesis, our analysis results are qualitatively consistent with the observed downwind extent of vegetation damage in two chlorine accidents.« less

Federal Emergency Management Agency

MedlinePlus

... Preparedness Goal National Preparedness System Blog Careers FEMA Earthquake Contacts Center for Faith-Based & Neighborhood Partnerships Grant ... hazard categories including riverine flood, hurricane surge, wind, earthquake, and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire. Skip footer content. ...

Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salna, E.

2017-12-01

The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise their understanding, we may raise their support for Disaster Risk Reduction and then voice that support to their local government officials and policy-makers. The goal and end-result is improved community resilience. This is especially relevant with Miami being part of the Rockefeller Foundation's 100 Resilient Cities Initiative.

Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murray, R.C.

1993-09-01

This paper will present a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance (2) Technical support, research development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight.

Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

2016-02-01

Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

KSC-04pd1697

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, workers prepare to close the payload bay doors on Atlantis in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1692

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility prepare to stow the landing gear on the orbiter Atlantis in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, and closing their payload bay doors. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1694

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility prepare the wheel bay to stow Atlantis’ landing gear in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, and closing their payload bay doors. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1711

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility finish Hurricane preparations on the payload bay doors of Atlantis. Preparing for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday, workers also powered down the Space Shuttle orbiters, and stowed the landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1691

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility prepare to close the nose wheel doors on Atlantis in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing their payload bay doors and stowing their landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1688

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility prepare the orbiter Atlantis and related equipment for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing their payload bay doors and stowing their landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1703

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, the payload bay doors on Atlantis are being closed in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1710

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility cover up areas of Atlantis with plastic, preparing for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing the payload bay doors and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1693

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility prepare to stow the landing gear on the orbiter Atlantis in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, and closing their payload bay doors. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1699

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Atlantis’ payload bay doors are being closed in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1698

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, workers prepare to close the payload bay doors on Atlantis in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1690

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility prepare to close the nose wheel doors on Atlantis in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing their payload bay doors and stowing their landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1689

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility prepare to close the nose wheel doors on Atlantis in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing their payload bay doors and stowing their landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1708

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility cover up areas of Atlantis, preparing for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing the payload bay doors and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1702

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, the payload bay doors on Atlantis are being closed in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1700

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, the payload bay doors on Atlantis are being closed in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1696

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Atlantis’ wheels are raised into their wheel bays in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, and closing their payload bay doors. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1704

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, the payload bay doors on Atlantis are being closed in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1701

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, a worker checks out part of Atlantis after payload bay doors were closed in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1695

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-31

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Orbiter Processing Facility, Atlantis’ wheels are raised into their wheel bays in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, and closing their payload bay doors. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

KSC-04pd1709

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility cover up areas of Atlantis with plastic, preparing for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing the payload bay doors and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

Simulation of Orographically-Driven Precipitation in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2008-12-01

The proximity of the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse and Peninsular Mountain Ranges of coastal Southern California may lead to significant, orographically-enhanced precipitation in the region. With abundant moisture, such as evidenced in Pineapple Express events or atmospheric rivers, this precipitation may lead to other hydrologic hazards as flash flooding, landslides or debris flows. Available precipitation observation networks are relatively sparse in the mountainous regions and often do not capture the spatial variation of these events with high resolution. This study aims to simulate the topographically-driven precipitation over Southern California with high spatial resolution using a simplified orographic precipitation model. The model employs potential theory flow to estimate steady state three-dimensional wind fields for given free stream velocity forcing winds, atmospheric moisture advection, and cloud and precipitation microphysics proposed by Kessler (1969). The advantage of this modeling set-up is the computational efficiency as compared to regional mesoscale models such as the MM5. For this application, the Southern California region, comprised of the counties of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego, and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, are modeled at a 3-km resolution. The orographic precipitation model is forced by free stream wind velocities given by the 700mb winds from the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset. Atmospheric moisture initial conditions are defined also by the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset, and updated 4x- daily with the available 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis forcing. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated precipitation to observations for over a variety of spatial scales and over the historical wet season periods from October 2000 to April 2005. The comparison is made over several performance measurements including (a) the occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation, (b) overall bias and correlation, (c) bias and correlation for precipitation exceeding given thresholds, and (d) the frequency distributions of non-zero precipitation. The results of simulation performance are compared to reported results of other orographically-driven precipitation and regional mesoscale model studies within the Western U.S.

Modified ensemble Kalman filter for nuclear accident atmospheric dispersion: prediction improved and source estimated.

PubMed

Zhang, X L; Su, G F; Yuan, H Y; Chen, J G; Huang, Q Y

2014-09-15

Atmospheric dispersion models play an important role in nuclear power plant accident management. A reliable estimation of radioactive material distribution in short range (about 50 km) is in urgent need for population sheltering and evacuation planning. However, the meteorological data and the source term which greatly influence the accuracy of the atmospheric dispersion models are usually poorly known at the early phase of the emergency. In this study, a modified ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method in conjunction with a Lagrangian puff-model is proposed to simultaneously improve the model prediction and reconstruct the source terms for short range atmospheric dispersion using the off-site environmental monitoring data. Four main uncertainty parameters are considered: source release rate, plume rise height, wind speed and wind direction. Twin experiments show that the method effectively improves the predicted concentration distribution, and the temporal profiles of source release rate and plume rise height are also successfully reconstructed. Moreover, the time lag in the response of ensemble Kalman filter is shortened. The method proposed here can be a useful tool not only in the nuclear power plant accident emergency management but also in other similar situation where hazardous material is released into the atmosphere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Inundation Map for Bantayan Island, Cebu Using Delft3D-Flow Storm Surge Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuadra, Camille; Suarez, John Kenneth; Biton, Nophi Ian; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Lapidez, John Phillip; Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

On average, 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility annually, making it vulnerable to different storm hazards. Apart from the frequency of tropical cyclones, the archipelagic nature of the country makes it particularly prone to storm surges. On 08 November 2013, Haiyan, a Category 5 Typhoon with maximum one-minute sustained wind speed of 315 kph, hit the central region of the Philippines. In its path, the howler devastated Bantayan Island, a popular tourist destination. The island is located north of Cebu City, the second largest metropolis of the Philippines in terms of populace. Having been directly hit by Typhoon Haiyan, Bantayan Island was severely damaged by strong winds and storm surges, with more than 11,000 houses totally destroyed while 5,000 more suffered minor damage. The adverse impacts of possible future storm surge events in the island can only be mitigated if hazard maps that depict inundation of the coastal areas of Bantayan are generated. To create such maps, Delft3D-Flow, a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate storm surges. These simulations were made over a 10-m per pixel resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) bathymetry. The results of the coastal inundation model for Typhoon Haiyan's storm surges were validated using data collected from field work and local government reports. The hydrodynamic model of Bantayan was then calibrated using the field data and further simulations were made with varying typhoon tracks. This was done to generate scenarios on the farthest possible inland incursion of storm surges. The output of the study is a detailed storm surge inundation map that depicts safe zones for development of infrastructure near coastal areas and for construction of coastal protection structures. The storm surge inundation map can also be used as basis for disaster preparedness plans of coastal communities threatened by approaching typhoons.

The Role of Deposition in Limiting the Hazard Extent of Dense-Gas Plumes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dillon, M B

2008-05-11

Accidents that involve large (multi-ton) releases of toxic industrial chemicals and form dense-gas clouds often yield far fewer fatalities, casualties and environmental effects than standard assessment and emergency response models predict. This modeling study, which considers both dense-gas turbulence suppression and deposition to environmental objects (e.g. buildings), demonstrates that dry deposition to environmental objects may play a significant role in reducing the distance at which adverse impacts occur - particularly under low-wind, stable atmospheric conditions which are often considered to be the worst-case scenario for these types of releases. The degree to which the released chemical sticks to (or reactsmore » with) environmental surfaces is likely a key parameter controlling hazard extents. In all modeled cases, the deposition to vertical surfaces of environmental objects (e.g. building walls) was more efficient in reducing atmospheric chemical concentrations than deposition to the earth's surface. This study suggests that (1) hazard extents may vary widely by release environment (e.g. grasslands vs. suburbia) and release conditions (e.g. sunlight or humidity may change the rate at which chemicals react with a surface) and (2) greenbelts (or similar structures) may dramatically reduce the impacts of large-scale releases. While these results are demonstrated to be qualitatively consistent with the downwind extent of vegetation damage in two chlorine releases, critical knowledge gaps exist and this study provides recommendations for additional experimental studies.« less

Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area.

PubMed

Shimkus, Cari E; Ting, Mingfang; Booth, James F; Adamo, Susana B; Madajewicz, Malgosia; Kushnir, Yochanan; Rieder, Harald E

2017-07-01

Winter storms pose numerous hazards to the Northeast United States, including rain, snow, strong wind, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions of dollars in damages from one storm alone. This study investigates meteorological intensity and impacts of winter storms from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and underscores the consequences of winter storms. The study selected 70 winter storms on the basis of station observations of surface wind strength, heavy precipitation, high storm tide, and snow extremes. Storm rankings differed between measures, suggesting that intensity is not easily defined with a single metric. Several storms fell into two or more categories (multiple-category storms). Following storm selection, property damages were examined to determine which types lead to high losses. The analysis of hazards (or events) and associated damages using the Storm Events Database of the National Centers for Environmental Information indicates that multiple-category storms were responsible for a greater portion of the damage. Flooding was responsible for the highest losses, but no discernible connection exists between the number of storms that afflict a county and the damage it faces. These results imply that losses may rely more on the incidence of specific hazards, infrastructure types, and property values, which vary throughout the region. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

Petroleum and hazardous material releases from industrial facilities associated with Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Sengul, Hatice

2010-04-01

Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk-based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.

75 FR 26977 - Tennessee; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-13

... winds, and tornadoes beginning on April 30, 2010, and continuing, is of sufficient severity and... Assistance program in the designated areas, Hazard Mitigation throughout the State, and any other forms of...

76 FR 32983 - Tennessee; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-07

... areas of the State of Tennessee resulting from severe storms, tornadoes, straight line winds, and... program in the designated areas, Hazard Mitigation throughout the State, and any other forms of assistance...

Modelling the fate of the Tijuana River discharge plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ormondt, M.; Terrill, E.; Hibler, L. F.; van Dongeren, A. R.

2010-12-01

After rainfall events, the Tijuana River discharges excess runoff into the ocean in a highly turbid plume. The runoff waters contain large suspended solids concentrations, as well as high levels of toxic contaminants, bacteria, and hepatitis and enteroviruses. Public health hazards posed by the effluent often result in beach closures for several kilometers northward along the U.S. shoreline. A Delft3D model has been set up to predict the fate of the Tijuana River plume. The model takes into account the effects of tides, wind, waves, salinity, and temperature stratification. Heat exchange with the atmosphere is also included. The model consists of a relatively coarse outer domain and a high-resolution surf zone domain that are coupled with Domain Decomposition. The offshore boundary conditions are obtained from the larger NCOM SoCal model (operated by the US Navy) that spans the entire Southern California Bight. A number of discharge events are investigated, in which model results are validated against a wide range of field measurements in the San Diego Bight. These include HF Radar surface currents, REMUS tracks, drifter deployments, satellite imagery, as well as current and temperature profile measurements at a number of locations. The model is able to reproduce the observed current and temperature patterns reasonably well. Under calm conditions, the model results suggest that the hydrodynamics in the San Diego Bight are largely governed by internal waves. During rainfall events, which are typically accompanied by strong winds and high waves, wind and wave driven currents become dominant. An analysis will be made of what conditions determine the trapping and mixing of the plume inside the surfzone and/or the propagation of the plume through the breakers and onto the coastal shelf. The model is now also running in operational mode. Three day forecasts are made every 24 hours. This study was funded by the Office of Naval Research.

Usability Evaluation of a Flight-Deck Airflow Hazard Visualization System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aragon, Cecilia R.

2004-01-01

Many aircraft accidents each year are caused by encounters with unseen airflow hazards near the ground, such as vortices, downdrafts, low level wind shear, microbursts, or turbulence from surrounding vegetation or structures near the landing site. These hazards can be dangerous even to airliners; there have been hundreds of fatalities in the United States in the last two decades attributable to airliner encounters with microbursts and low level wind shear alone. However, helicopters are especially vulnerable to airflow hazards because they often have to operate in confined spaces and under operationally stressful conditions (such as emergency search and rescue, military or shipboard operations). Providing helicopter pilots with an augmented-reality display visualizing local airflow hazards may be of significant benefit. However, the form such a visualization might take, and whether it does indeed provide a benefit, had not been studied before our experiment. We recruited experienced military and civilian helicopter pilots for a preliminary usability study to evaluate a prototype augmented-reality visualization system. The study had two goals: first, to assess the efficacy of presenting airflow data in flight; and second, to obtain expert feedback on sample presentations of hazard indicators to refine our design choices. The study addressed the optimal way to provide critical safety information to the pilot, what level of detail to provide, whether to display specific aerodynamic causes or potential effects only, and how to safely and effectively shift the locus of attention during a high-workload task. Three-dimensional visual cues, with varying shape, color, transparency, texture, depth cueing, and use of motion, depicting regions of hazardous airflow, were developed and presented to the pilots. The study results indicated that such a visualization system could be of significant value in improving safety during critical takeoff and landing operations, and also gave clear indications of the best design choices in producing the hazard visual cues.

Airflow Hazard Visualization for Helicopter Pilots: Flight Simulation Study Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aragon, Cecilia R.; Long, Kurtis R.

2005-01-01

Airflow hazards such as vortices or low level wind shear have been identified as a primary contributing factor in many helicopter accidents. US Navy ships generate airwakes over their decks, creating potentially hazardous conditions for shipboard rotorcraft launch and recovery. Recent sensor developments may enable the delivery of airwake data to the cockpit, where visualizing the hazard data may improve safety and possibly extend ship/helicopter operational envelopes. A prototype flight-deck airflow hazard visualization system was implemented on a high-fidelity rotorcraft flight dynamics simulator. Experienced helicopter pilots, including pilots from all five branches of the military, participated in a usability study of the system. Data was collected both objectively from the simulator and subjectively from post-test questionnaires. Results of the data analysis are presented, demonstrating a reduction in crash rate and other trends that illustrate the potential of airflow hazard visualization to improve flight safety.

Unloading Characteristics of Sand-drift in Wind-shallow Areas along Railway and the Effect of Sand Removal by Force of Wind

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jian-jun; Xin, Guo-Wei; Zhi, Ling-yan; Jiang, Fu-qiang

2017-01-01

Wind-shield walls decrease the velocity of wind-drift sand flow in transit. This results in sand accumulating in the wind-shadow zone of both windshield wall and track line, causing severe sand sediment hazard. This study reveals the characteristics of sand accumulation and the laws of wind-blown sand removal in the wind-shadow areas of three different types of windshield walls, utilizing three-dimensional numerical simulations and wind tunnel experiments and on-site sand sediment tests. The results revealed the formation of apparent vortex and acceleration zones on the leeward side of solid windshield walls. For uniform openings, the vortex area moved back and narrowed. When bottom-opening windshield walls were adopted, the track-supporting layer at the step became a conflux acceleration zone, forming a low velocity vortex zone near the track line. At high wind speeds, windshield walls with bottom-openings achieved improved sand dredging. Considering hydrodynamic mechanisms, the flow field structure on the leeward side of different types of windshield structures is a result of convergence and diffusion of fluids caused by an obstacle. This convergence and diffusion effect of air fluid is more apparent at high wind velocities, but not obvious at low wind velocities. PMID:28120915

Evaluation model of wind energy resources and utilization efficiency of wind farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jie

2018-04-01

Due to the large amount of abandoned winds in wind farms, the establishment of a wind farm evaluation model is particularly important for the future development of wind farms In this essay, consider the wind farm's wind energy situation, Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) and Wind Energy Utilization Efficiency Model(WEUEM) are established to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the wind farm. Wind Energy Resource Model (WERM) contains average wind speed, average wind power density and turbulence intensity, which assessed wind energy resources together. Based on our model, combined with the actual measurement data of a wind farm, calculate the indicators using the model, and the results are in line with the actual situation. We can plan the future development of the wind farm based on this result. Thus, the proposed establishment approach of wind farm assessment model has application value.

Using C-Band Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures to Improve Convective Wind Forecasting at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amiot, Corey G.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Roeder, William P.; McNamara, Todd M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2017-01-01

The United States Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) is the organization responsible for monitoring atmospheric conditions at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and NASA Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) and issuing warnings for hazardous weather conditions when the need arises. One such warning is issued for convective wind events, for which lead times of 30 and 60 minutes are desired for events with peak wind gusts of 35 knots or greater (i.e., Threshold-1) and 50 knots or greater (i.e., Threshold-2), respectively (Roeder et al. 2014).

Evaluation of wind/tornado-generated missile impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singhal, M.K.; Walls, J.C.

1993-09-01

Simplified empirical formulae and some tabular data for the design/evaluation of structure barriers to resist wind/tornado generated missiles impact are presented in this paper. The scope is limited to the missiles defined by UCRL-15910 which are to be considered for moderate and high hazard facilities only. The method presented herein are limited to consideration of local effects on the barrier, i.e., the barrier must be capable of stopping the missile, and the barrier must no cause the generation of secondary missiles due to scabbing. Overall structural response to missile impact and structural effects derived from wind pressure are not addressedmore » in this paper.« less

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-01-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100 and 1000 year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows to obtain storm surge level maps that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-08-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Thunderstorms: Thermodynamics and Organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinner, Tobias; Groenemeijer, Pieter

Thunderstorm research is strongly motivated by the wish to reduce the harm they do to people and their property. Thunderstorms are a global phenomenon, although some areas in the mid-latitudes and tropics are particularly at risk. They form where and whenever the ingredients for their formation come together: instability, moisture and lift. Especially upon interaction with vertical wind shear, they may develop into well-organized systems that produce hazards such as large hail, severe winds, heavy precipitation, and tornadoes.

Simulation of wind-driven dispersion of fire pollutants in a street canyon using FDS.

PubMed

Pesic, Dusica J; Blagojevic, Milan Dj; Zivkovic, Nenad V

2014-01-01

Air quality in urban areas attracts great attention due to increasing pollutant emissions and their negative effects on human health and environment. Numerous studies, such as those by Mouilleau and Champassith (J Loss Prevent Proc 22(3): 316-323, 2009), Xie et al. (J Hydrodyn 21(1): 108-117, 2009), and Yassin (Environ Sci Pollut Res 20(6): 3975-3988, 2013) focus on the air pollutant dispersion with no buoyancy effect or weak buoyancy effect. A few studies, such as those by Hu et al. (J Hazard Mater 166(1): 394-406, 2009; J Hazard Mater 192(3): 940-948, 2011; J Civ Eng Manag (2013)) focus on the fire-induced dispersion of pollutants with heat buoyancy release rate in the range from 0.5 to 20 MW. However, the air pollution source might very often be concentrated and intensive, as a consequence of the hazardous materials fire. Namely, transportation of fuel through urban areas occurs regularly, because it is often impossible to find alternative supply routes. It is accompanied with the risk of fire accident occurrences. Accident prevention strategies require analysis of the worst scenarios in which fire products jeopardize the exposed population and environment. The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of wind flow on air pollution and human vulnerability to fire products in a street canyon. For simulation of the gasoline tanker truck fire as a result of a multivehicle accident, computational fluid dynamics large eddy simulation method has been used. Numerical results show that the fire products flow vertically upward, without touching the walls of the buildings in the absence of wind. However, when the wind velocity reaches the critical value, the products touch the walls of the buildings on both sides of the street canyon. The concentrations of carbon monoxide and soot decrease, whereas carbon dioxide concentration increases with the rise of height above the street canyon ground level. The longitudinal concentration of the pollutants inside the street increases with the rise of the wind velocity at the roof level of the street canyon.

KSC-04pd1717

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Space Station Processing Facility, a worker wraps equipment in plastic in preparation for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. The various modules in the SSPF, such as the Japanese Experiment Module, U.S. Node 2 and Multi-Purpose Logistics Modules, are being covered as well. KSC workers also have powered down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closed their payload bay doors and stowed the landing gear. They are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The SSPF can withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and wind gusts up to 132 mph. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

CATS Featured Articles

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2017-01-31

... Transport System (CATS) onboard the International Space Station. Nighttime View of Raung Volcanic Plume : Natural Hazards ... Eastern Hemisphere: Image of the Day  -  Three more missions are set to take off in the next six months: the wind-measuring ...

Why Buy Single-Ply?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gwizdala, Mike

1999-01-01

Explains the benefits of prefabricated reinforced thermoplastic single-ply roofs as good solutions for education-facility roofing needs. Top benefits include durability, energy efficiency, no maintenance required, no hazardous materials present, and very water and wind resistant qualities. (GR)

The use of flight test techniques in aircraft accident investigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parks, E. K.; Bach, R. E., Jr.; Wingrove, R. C.

1986-01-01

Wind shear is a serious safety hazard to commercial aviation. Low level wind shear (downburst) was the cause of the takeoff accident in New Orleans, July 9, 1982, and the landing accident in Dallas, Aug. 2, 1985. Shear layer instability is a common cause of clear air turbulence (CAT) at cruising altitudes. A number of encounters with severe CAT, in which passengers were injured, have recently occurred (Hannibal, MO, April 1981; Morton, WY, July 1982; etc.). Improved accident investigation techniques can lead to a better understanding of the nature of the wind environment associated with downbursts and CAT and to better detection and avoidance procedures. For the past several years, NASA-Ames has worked closely with the National Transportation Safety Board in the investigation of wind related accidents.

KSC-04pd1707

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-09-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Workers in the Orbiter Processing Facility unwrap plastic for use in covering equipment as part of preparations for the expected impact of Hurricane Frances on Saturday. Other preparations at KSC include powering down the Space Shuttle orbiters, closing the payload bay doors and stowing the landing gear. Workers are also taking precautions against flooding by moving spacecraft hardware off the ground and sandbagging facilities. The Orbiter Processing Facility is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 105 mph. The Vehicle Assembly Building is constructed of concrete and steel and was designed to withstand winds of 125 mph. Other payload and flight hardware support facilities can endure winds of 110 mph. Launch pads and the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility can withstand 125-mph winds.

Turbulence as observed by concurrent measurements made at NSSL using weather radar, Doppler radar, Doppler lidar and aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jean T.

1987-01-01

As air traffic increases and aircraft capability increases in range and operating altitude, the exposure to weather hazards increases. Turbulence and wind shears are two of the most important of these hazards that must be taken into account if safe flight operations are to be accomplished. Beginning in the early 1960's, Project Rough Rider began thunderstorm investigations. Past and present efforts at the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) to measure these flight safety hazards and to describe the use of Doppler radar to detect and qualify these hazards are summarized. In particular, the evolution of the Doppler-measured radial velocity spectrum width and its applicability to the problem of safe flight is presented.

The CASA Dallas Fort Worth Remote Sensing Network ICT for Urban Disaster Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandrasekar, Venkatachalam; Chen, Haonan; Philips, Brenda; Seo, Dong-jun; Junyent, Francesc; Bajaj, Apoorva; Zink, Mike; Mcenery, John; Sukheswalla, Zubin; Cannon, Amy; Lyons, Eric; Westbrook, David

2013-04-01

The dual-polarization X-band radar network developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation Engineering Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) has shown great advantages for observing and prediction of hazardous weather events in the lower atmosphere (1-3 km above ground level). The network is operating though a scanning methodology called DCAS, distributed collaborative adaptive sensing, which is designed to focus on particular interesting regions of the atmosphere and disseminate information for decision-making to multiple end-users, such as emergency managers and policy analysts. Since spring 2012, CASA and the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) have embarked the development of Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) urban remote sensing network, including 8-node of dual-polarization X-band radars, in the populous DFW Metroplex (pop. 6.3 million in 2010). The main goal of CASA DFW urban demonstration network is to protect the safety and prosperity of humans and ecosystems through research activities that include: 1) to demonstrate the DCAS operation paradigm developed by CASA; 2) to create high-resolution, three-dimensional mapping of the meteorological conditions; 3) to help the local emergency managers issue impacts-based warnings and forecasts for severe wind, tornado, hail, and flash flood hazards. The products of this radar network will include single and multi-radar data, vector wind retrieval, quantitative precipitation estimation and nowcasting, and numerical weather predictions. In addition, the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall products from CASA can serve as a reliable data input for distributed hydrological models in urban area. This paper presents the information and communication link between radars, rainfall product generation, hydrologic model link and end user community in the Dallas Fort Worth Urban Network. Specific details of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) between the various subsystems are presented.

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

2017-01-01

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

2016-04-01

The COPERNICUS EMS Risk & Recovery Mapping (RRM) activity offers services to support efficient design and implementation of mitigation measures and recovery planning based on EO data exploitation. The Azores Archipelagos case was realized in the context of the FWC 259811 Copernicus EMS RRM, and provides potential impact information for a number of natural disasters. The analysis identified population and assets at risk (infrastructures and environment). The risk assessment was based on hazard and vulnerability of structural elements, road network characteristics, etc. Integration of different hazards and risks was accounted in establishing the necessary first response/ first aid infrastructure. EO data (Pleiades and WV-2), were used to establish a detailed background information, common for the assessment of the whole of the risks. A qualitative Flood hazard level was established, through a "Flood Susceptibility Index" that accounts for upstream drainage area and local slope along the drainage network (Manfreda et al. 2014). Indicators, representing different vulnerability typologies, were accounted for. The risk was established through intersecting hazard and vulnerability (risk- specific lookup table). Probabilistic seismic hazards maps (PGA) were obtained by applying the Cornell (1968) methodology as implemented in CRISIS2007 (Ordaz et al. 2007). The approach relied on the identification of potential sources, the assessment of earthquake recurrence and magnitude distribution, the selection of ground motion model, and the mathematical model to calculate seismic hazard. Lava eruption areas and a volcanic activity related coefficient were established through available historical data. Lava flow paths and their convergence were estimated through applying a cellular, automata based, Lava Flow Hazard numerical model (Gestur Leó Gislason, 2013). The Landslide Hazard Index of NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) for heavy rainfall (100 year extreme monthly rainfall) and earthquake (475 years return period) was used. Topography, lithology, soil moisture and LU/LC were also accounted for. Soil erosion risk was assessed through the empirical model RUSLE (Renard et al. 1991b). Rainfall erosivity, topography and vegetation cover are the main parameters which were used for predicting the proneness to soil loss. Expected, maximum tsunami wave heights were estimated for a specific earthquake scenario at designated forecast points along the coasts. Deformation at the source was calculated by utilizing the Okada code (Okada, 1985). Tsunami waves' generation and propagation is based on the SWAN model (JRC/IPSC modification). To estimate the wave height (forecast points) the Green's Law function was used (JRC Tsunami Analysis Tool). Storm tracks' historical data indicate a return period of 17 /41 years for H1 /H2 hurricane categories respectively. NOAA WAVEWATCH III model hindcast reanalysis was used to estimate the maximum significant wave height (wind and swell) along the coastline during two major storms. The associated storm-surge risk assessment accounted also for the coastline morphology. Seven empirical (independent) indicators were used to express the erosion susceptibility of the coasts. Each indicator is evaluated according to a semi?quantitative score that represents low, medium and high level of erosion risk or impact. The estimation of the coastal erosion hazard was derived through aggregating the indicators in a grid scale.

Detection of Non-hazardous, Fluorescent Ricin-B Via an Immunoassay on Simulated Plastic Wings

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

biological weapon . Large quantities of the toxin could potentially wind up in the wrong hands and be armed with relative ease. This danger has spawned many...classified as a toxin), which poses as the antigen (target) molecule. A relatively dilute solution of the tagged antigen complex was aerosolized and...validates the antibody- antigen binding sequence. A test station was developed to further evaluate hazard detection capability in an experimental setup

Natural phenomena hazards design and evaluation criteria for Department of Energy Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-04-01

This DOE standard gives design and evaluation criteria for natural phenomena hazards (NPH) effects as guidance for implementing the NPH mitigation requirements of DOE 5480.28. Goal of the criteria is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, flooding, etc. They apply to the design of new facilities and the evaluation of existing facilities; they may also be used for modification and upgrading of the latter.

Safety design approach for external events in Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamano, H.; Kubo, S.; Tani, A.

2012-07-01

This paper describes a safety design approach for external events in the design study of Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor. An emphasis is introduction of a design extension external condition (DEEC). In addition to seismic design, other external events such as tsunami, strong wind, abnormal temperature, etc. were addressed in this study. From a wide variety of external events consisting of natural hazards and human-induced ones, a screening method was developed in terms of siting, consequence, frequency to select representative events. Design approaches for these events were categorized on the probabilistic, statistical and deterministic basis. External hazard conditions were considered mainlymore » for DEECs. In the probabilistic approach, the DEECs of earthquake, tsunami and strong wind were defined as 1/10 of exceedance probability of the external design bases. The other representative DEECs were also defined based on statistical or deterministic approaches. (authors)« less

Challenges of Modeling Swell Propagation and Sea Waves over a Complex Bathymetry: Implication for Coastal Flood Mapping in Sitka, AK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marjani, A.; Allahdadi, M.

2016-02-01

Sitka, AK is included in Region X of FEMA Flood Hazard Mapping. The scoped shoreline is located east of the Sitka Sound connecting Sitka to the Pacific waters through a semi-narrow continental shelf. Wave hindcast is a fundamental component of Coastal Flood Risk Study Process. SWAN model on an unstructured mesh was used to determine the characteristics of waves along the Sitka shoreline. This area is substantially affected by a combination of both offshore waves (swells) and waves generated by severe local winds. The bathymetry inside the Sitka Sound and the nearshore areas along the Sitka coastline is very complex and includes many abrupt deepening as a result of geological characteristics or large tidal currents. The present study provides a brief review of the steps and challenges for a reliable wave modeling over this area. The requirement for running the model in non-stationary mode in combination with the mentioned complexities initiated instabilities regarding intense refractions that cause unrealistic large values for the peak period and the wave height. Refining the computational mesh over the areas with great depth gradients as well as increasing the spectral grid resolution and decreasing time steps did not satisfactorily resolve the above issue. Choosing an appropriate CFL Limiters on Spectral Propagation Velocities in SWAN setup (which is not considered in the default settings) could properly treat this instability (See attached Figure). The model offshore boundary was prescribed using wave data obtained from the WIS buoys, while wind forcing was resulted as a combination of Sitka airport and offshore Buoy wind data. Model performance in transformation of swells from the open boundary was evaluated using two more offshore WIS buoy data. A 1D model transferred the extracted wave data from SWAN to the surfzone along each selected transect for each storm event. The the final production was runup with different recurrence periods along the shoreline.

Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970-2005.

PubMed

Logan, John R; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

2016-10-01

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970-2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal-a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm's way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.

Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

PubMed Central

Logan, John R.; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

2016-01-01

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices. PMID:27531504

Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedonio, G.; Costa, A.; Folch, A.

2008-12-01

Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.

PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, D.; NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probabilitymore » that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel distribution, and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight winds of 123 mph every 2500 years, and 132mph every 6250 years at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the W98 report (which also used the Gumbel distribution for wind speeds) which gave wind speeds of 115mph and 122 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation accumulation periods, we compared the fits of three different theoretical extreme-value distributions, and in the end decided to maintain the use of the Gumbel distribution for each period. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years was estimated as 7.8 inches and 8.4 inches, respectively. For the 24- hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 10.4 inches and 11.1 inches, respectively. These values are substantially lower than comparable values provided in the W98 report. This is largely a consequence of the W98 use of a different extreme value distribution with its corresponding higher extreme probabilities.« less

Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Seismic response of a full-scale wind turbine tower using experimental and numerical modal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandil, Kamel Sayed Ahmad; Saudi, Ghada N.; Eltaly, Boshra Aboul-Anen; El-khier, Mostafa Mahmoud Abo

2016-12-01

Wind turbine technology has developed tremendously over the past years. In Egypt, the Zafarana wind farm is currently generating at a capacity of 517 MW, making it one of the largest onshore wind farms in the world. It is located in an active seismic zone along the west side of the Gulf of Suez. Accordingly, seismic risk assessment is demanded for studying the structural integrity of wind towers under expected seismic hazard events. In the context of ongoing joint Egypt-US research project "Seismic Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Towers in Zafarana wind Farm Egypt" (Project ID: 4588), this paper describes the dynamic performance investigation of an existing Nordex N43 wind turbine tower. Both experimental and numerical work are illustrated explaining the methodology adopted to investigate the dynamic behavior of the tower under seismic load. Field dynamic testing of the full-scale tower was performed using ambient vibration techniques (AVT). Both frequency domain and time domain methods were utilized to identify the actual dynamic properties of the tower as built in the site. Mainly, the natural frequencies, their corresponding mode shapes and damping ratios of the tower were successfully identified using AVT. A vibration-based finite element model (FEM) was constructed using ANSYS V.12 software. The numerical and experimental results of modal analysis were both compared for matching purpose. Using different simulation considerations, the initial FEM was updated to finally match the experimental results with good agreement. Using the final updated FEM, the response of the tower under the AQABA earthquake excitation was investigated. Time history analysis was conducted to define the seismic response of the tower in terms of the structural stresses and displacements. This work is considered as one of the pioneer structural studies of the wind turbine towers in Egypt. Identification of the actual dynamic properties of the existing tower was successfully performed based on AVT. Using advanced techniques in both the field testing and the numerical investigations produced reliable FEM specific for the tested tower, which can be further used in more advanced structural investigations for improving the design of such special structures.

Meteor Impact Model in the new Space Power Chambers

NASA Image and Video Library

1962-09-21

S-65 Meteor Impact Model set up in the former Altitude Wind Tunnel at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Lewis Research Center just days after the September 12, 1962 rededication of the facility as the Space Power Chamber. Although larger test chambers would later be constructed, the rapid conversion of the wind tunnel into two space tanks allowed the facility to play a vital role in the early years of the space program. The eastern section of the tunnel, seen here became a vacuum chamber capable of simulating 100 miles altitude. This space tank was envisioned for the study of small satellites like this one. The transfer of the Centaur Program to Lewis one month late, however, permanently changed this mission. NASA was undertaking an in depth study at the time on the effect of micrometeoroids on satellites. Large space radiators were particularly vulnerable to damage from the small particles of space debris. In order to determine the hazard from meteoroids researchers had to define the flux rate relative to the mass and the velocity distribution because the greater the mass or the velocity of a meteoroid the greater the damage.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

JEDI Wind Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Wind Models JEDI Wind Models The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Wind model allows the user to estimate economic development impacts from wind power generation projects. JEDI Wind has default information that can be used to run a generic impacts analysis assuming wind industry averages

Operational Forecasting and Warning systems for Coastal hazards in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Kwang-Soon; Kwon, Jae-Il; Kim, Jin-Ah; Heo, Ki-Young; Jun, Kicheon

2017-04-01

Coastal hazards caused by both Mother Nature and humans cost tremendous social, economic and environmental damages. To mitigate these damages many countries have been running the operational forecasting or warning systems. Since 2009 Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) has been developed by the leading of Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) in Korea and KOOS has been operated in 2012. KOOS is consists of several operational modules of numerical models and real-time observations and produces the basic forecasting variables such as winds, tides, waves, currents, temperature and salinity and so on. In practical application systems include storm surges, oil spills, and search and rescue prediction models. In particular, abnormal high waves (swell-like high-height waves) have occurred in the East coast of Korea peninsula during winter season owing to the local meteorological condition over the East Sea, causing property damages and the loss of human lives. In order to improve wave forecast accuracy even very local wave characteristics, numerical wave modeling system using SWAN is established with data assimilation module using 4D-EnKF and sensitivity test has been conducted. During the typhoon period for the prediction of sever waves and the decision making support system for evacuation of the ships, a high-resolution wave forecasting system has been established and calibrated.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The results will be visualized in a set of national risk profile documents intended to form the basis for conversations with governments on risk reduction and risk financing strategies.

Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2012-01-01

Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

Reference Manual for the System Advisor Model's Wind Power Performance Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freeman, J.; Jorgenson, J.; Gilman, P.

2014-08-01

This manual describes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM) wind power performance model. The model calculates the hourly electrical output of a single wind turbine or of a wind farm. The wind power performance model requires information about the wind resource, wind turbine specifications, wind farm layout (if applicable), and costs. In SAM, the performance model can be coupled to one of the financial models to calculate economic metrics for residential, commercial, or utility-scale wind projects. This manual describes the algorithms used by the wind power performance model, which is available in the SAM user interface andmore » as part of the SAM Simulation Core (SSC) library, and is intended to supplement the user documentation that comes with the software.« less

Windthrow a hazard in Virginia pine strip cuttings

Treesearch

Richard H. Fenton

1955-01-01

The eye of Hurricane Hazel passed to the west of the Beltsville Experimental Forest in Maryland on the afternoon of October 15, 1954. Sustained wind velocities of 66 mph (from the SE), with maximum gusts of 98 mph, were recorded nearby.

40 CFR 265.223 - Containment system.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 265.223 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SOLID WASTES (CONTINUED) INTERIM STATUS STANDARDS FOR OWNERS AND OPERATORS OF HAZARDOUS WASTE TREATMENT, STORAGE, AND DISPOSAL..., such as grass, shale, or rock, to minimize wind and water erosion and to preserve their structural...

Risk analysis for U.S. offshore wind farms: the need for an integrated approach.

PubMed

Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D

2015-04-01

Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large-scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on-going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long-term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this "Perspective", we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on-going research on the risks from wind farms. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling and forecasting tephra hazards at Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, during 2009 unrest and eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastin, L. G.; Denlinger, R. P.; Wallace, K. L.; Schaefer, J. R.

2009-12-01

In late 2008, Redoubt Volcano, on the west coast of Alaska’s Cook Inlet, began a period of unrest that culminated in more than 19 small tephra-producing events between March 19 and April 4, 2009, followed by growth of a lava dome whose volume now exceeds 70 million cubic meters. The explosive events lasted from <1 to 31 minutes, sent tephra columns to heights of 19 km asl, and emitted dense-rock (DRE) tephra volumes up to several million cubic meters. Tephra fall affected transportation and infrastructure throughout Cook Inlet, including the Anchorage metropolitan area. The months of unrest that preceded the first explosive event allowed us to develop tools to forecast tephra hazards. As described in an accompanying abstract, colleagues at the University of Pisa produced automated, daily tephra-fall forecast maps using the 3-D VOL-CALPUFF model with input scenarios that represented likely event sizes and durations. Tephra-fall forecast maps were also generated every six hours for hypothetical events of 10M m3 volume DRE using the 2-D model ASHFALL, and relationships between hypothetical plume height and eruption rate were evaluated four times daily under then-current atmospheric conditions using the program PLUMERIA. Eruptive deposits were mapped and isomass contours constructed for the two largest events, March 24 (0340-0355Z) and April 4 (1358-1429Z), which produced radar-determined plume heights of 18.3 and 15.2 km asl (~15.6 and 12.5 km above the vent), and tephra volumes (DRE) of 6.3M and 3.1M m3, respectively. For the volumetric eruption rates calculated from mapped erupted volume and seismic duration (V=6.2×103 and 1.7×103 m3/s DRE), measured plume heights H above the vent fall within 10% of the empirical best-fit curve H=1.67V0.259 published in the book Volcanic Plumes by Sparks et al. (1997, eq. 5.1). The plume heights are slightly higher than (but still within 13% of) the 14.6 and 11.1 km predicted by PLUMERIA under the existing atmospheric conditions. We have also modeled these two events using the 3-D transient model FALL3D, which considers topographic effects on wind and tephra dispersal. Using the eruption rates and plume heights constrained by deposit mapping, seismic data, and Doppler radar, and an archived wind field obtained from the NOAA GDAS model for these dates, modeled isomass contours from the April 4 event closely resemble measured values, but modeled contours from the March 24 event extend only about half to three fourths as far from the volcano as measured. This discrepancy may result from inaccuracies in the modeled wind pattern, the grain-size distribution, or turbulent entrainment algorithms. The deposit pattern may also have been affected by a lateral blast which is thought to have accompanied this event.

Modeling wind energy potential in a data-poor region: A geographic information systems model for Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khayyat, Abdulkareem Hawta Abdullah Kak Ahmed

Scope and Method of Study: Most developing countries, including Iraq, have very poor wind data. Existing wind speed measurements of poor quality may therefore be a poor guide to where to look for the best wind resources. The main focus of this study is to examine how effectively a GIS spatial model estimates wind power potential in regions where high-quality wind data are very scarce, such as Iraq. The research used a mixture of monthly and hourly wind data from 39 meteorological stations. The study applied spatial analysis statistics and GIS techniques in modeling wind power potential. The model weighted important human, environmental and geographic factors that impact wind turbine siting, such as roughness length, land use⪉nd cover type, airport locations, road access, transmission lines, slope and aspect. Findings and Conclusions: The GIS model provided estimations for wind speed and wind power density and identified suitable areas for wind power projects. Using a high resolution (30*30m) digital elevation model DEM improved the GIS wind suitability model. The model identified areas suitable for wind farm development on different scales. The model showed that there are many locations available for large-scale wind turbines in the southern part of Iraq. Additionally, there are many places in central and northern parts (Kurdistan Region) for smaller scale wind turbine placement.

Wet snow hazard for power lines: a forecast and alert system applied in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonelli, P.; Lacavalla, M.; Marcacci, P.; Mariani, G.; Stella, G.

2011-09-01

Wet snow icing accretion on power lines is a real problem in Italy, causing failures on high and medium voltage power supplies during the cold season. The phenomenon is a process in which many large and local scale variables contribute in a complex way and not completely understood. A numerical weather forecast can be used to select areas where wet snow accretion has an high probability of occurring, but a specific accretion model must also be used to estimate the load of an ice sleeve and its hazard. All the information must be carefully selected and shown to the electric grid operator in order to warn him promptly. The authors describe a prototype of forecast and alert system, WOLF (Wet snow Overload aLert and Forecast), developed and applied in Italy. The prototype elaborates the output of a numerical weather prediction model, as temperature, precipitation, wind intensity and direction, to determine the areas of potential risk for the power lines. Then an accretion model computes the ice sleeves' load for different conductor diameters. The highest values are selected and displayed on a WEB-GIS application principally devoted to the electric operator, but also to more expert users. Some experimental field campaigns have been conducted to better parameterize the accretion model. Comparisons between real accidents and forecasted icing conditions are presented and discussed.

Robotic Measurement of Aeolian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, S.; Duperret, J. M.; Jerolmack, D. J.; Lancaster, N.; Nikolich, G.; Shipley, T. F.; Van Pelt, R. S.; Zobeck, T. M.; Koditschek, D. E.

2015-12-01

Local and regional measurements of sand transport and dust emission in complex natural settings presently lack spatiotemporal resolution adequate to inform models relevant for land management, climate policy, and the basic science of geomorphology. Deployments of wind, sand and dust sensors sophisticated enough to begin unpacking the complex relations among wind turbulence, surface roughness, sand flux and dust emission remain largely stationary. Aerial observations from satellites, planes and even UAVs help fill in, but none of these modalities offer the hope of "capturing the action" by being at the right place at the right time relative to the highly localized nature of sediment transport during wind storms. We have been developing a legged robot capable of rapidly traversing desert terrain, and are now adapting it to serve as a platform for scientific instrumentation. We aim to field a semi-autonomous, reactive mobile sensory package suited to the needs of aeolian science that can address the limitations of existing alternatives. This presentation reports on early trials in the Jornada LTER and White Sands National Monument aimed at gathering measurements of airflow and rates of sand transport on a dune face, assessing the role of roughness elements such as vegetation in modifying the wind shear stresses incident on the surface, and estimating erosion susceptibility in a natural arid soil. We will solicit ideas from the audience about other potentially interesting and viable measurement targets. Future close collaboration between aeolian, cognitive and robotics scientists such as we hope to promote through this presentation may yield machines with scientifically relevant sensory suites possessing sufficient autonomy to operate in-situ at the most intense episodes of wind and sediment movement under conditions far too uncomfortable and hazardous for human presence.

Characterizing the Hazard of a Wake Vortex Encounter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vicroy, Dan D.; Brandon, Jay; Greene, George; Rivers, Robert; Shah, Gautam; Stewart, Eric; Stuever, Robert

1998-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting research with the goal of enabling safe improvements in the capacity of the nation's air transportation system. The wake vortex upset hazard is an important factor in establishing the minimum safe spacing between aircraft during landing and take-off operations, thus impacting airport capacity. Static and free-flight wind tunnel tests and flight tests have provided an extensive data set for improved understanding of vortex encounter dynamics and simulation. Piloted and batch simulation studies are also ongoing to establish a first-order hazard metric and determine the limits of an operationally acceptable wake induced upset. This paper outlines NASA's research in these areas.

Risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, S.C.

1995-12-01

For the safety of nuclear power plants, it is important to identify potential areas of vulnerabilities to internal as well as external events to which nuclear power plants are exposed. This paper summarizes the risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena such as earthquakes, winds and tornadoes, floods, etc. The reported results are based on a limited number of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) performed for a few of the operating nuclear power plants within the United States. The summary includes an importance ranking of various natural hazard phenomena based on their contribution to the plant risk alongmore » with insights observed from the PRA studies.« less

Fast tracking of wind speed with a differential absorption LiDAR system: first results of an experimental campaign at Stromboli volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parracino, Stefano; Santoro, Simone; Maio, Giovanni; Nuvoli, Marcello; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Fiorani, Luca

2017-04-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is considered a precursor gas of volcanic eruptions by volcanologists. Monitoring the anomalous release of this parameter, we can retrieve useful information for the mitigation of volcanic hazards, such as for air traffic security. From a dataset collected during the Stromboli volcano field campaign, an assessment of the wind speed, in both horizontal and vertical paths, performing a fast tracking of this parameter was retrieved. This was determined with a newly designed shot-per-shot differential absorption LiDAR system operated in the near-infrared spectral region due to the simultaneous reconstruction of CO2 concentrations and wind speeds, using the same sample of LiDAR returns. A correlation method was used for the wind speed retrieval in which the transport of the spatial inhomogeneities of the aerosol backscattering coefficient, along the optical path of the system, was analyzed.

Research on large-scale wind farm modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Longfei; Zhang, Baoqun; Gong, Cheng; Jiao, Ran; Shi, Rui; Chi, Zhongjun; Ding, Yifeng

2017-01-01

Due to intermittent and adulatory properties of wind energy, when large-scale wind farm connected to the grid, it will have much impact on the power system, which is different from traditional power plants. Therefore it is necessary to establish an effective wind farm model to simulate and analyze the influence wind farms have on the grid as well as the transient characteristics of the wind turbines when the grid is at fault. However we must first establish an effective WTGs model. As the doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine has become the mainstream wind turbine model currently, this article first investigates the research progress of doubly-fed VSCF wind turbine, and then describes the detailed building process of the model. After that investigating the common wind farm modeling methods and pointing out the problems encountered. As WAMS is widely used in the power system, which makes online parameter identification of the wind farm model based on off-output characteristics of wind farm be possible, with a focus on interpretation of the new idea of identification-based modeling of large wind farms, which can be realized by two concrete methods.

Applications of the PUFF model to forecasts of volcanic clouds dispersal from Etna and Vesuvio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniele, P.; Lirer, L.; Petrosino, P.; Spinelli, N.; Peterson, R.

2009-05-01

PUFF is a numerical volcanic ash tracking model developed to simulate the behaviour of ash clouds in the atmosphere. The model uses wind field data provided by meteorological models and adds dispersion and sedimentation physics to predict the evolution of the cloud once it reaches thermodynamic equilibrium with the atmosphere. The software is intended for use in emergency response situations during an eruption to quickly forecast the position and trajectory of the ash cloud in the near (˜1-72 h) future. In this paper, we describe the first application of the PUFF model in forecasting volcanic ash dispersion from the Etna and Vesuvio volcanoes. We simulated the daily occurrence of an eruptive event of Etna utilizing ash cloud parameters describing the paroxysm of 22nd July 1998 and wind field data for the 1st September 2005-31st December 2005 time span from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at the approximate location of the Etna volcano (38N 15E). The results show that volcanic ash particles are dispersed in a range of directions in response to changing wind field at various altitudes and that the ash clouds are mainly dispersed toward the east and southeast, although the exact trajectory is highly variable, and can change within a few hours. We tested the sensitivity of the model to the mean particle grain size and found that an increased concentration of ash particles in the atmosphere results when the mean grain size is decreased. Similarly, a dramatic variation in dispersion results when the logarithmic standard deviation of the particle-size distribution is changed. Additionally, we simulated the occurrence of an eruptive event at both Etna and Vesuvio, using the same parameters describing the initial volcanic plume, and wind field data recorded for 1st September 2005, at approximately 38N 15E for Etna and 41N 14E for Vesuvio. The comparison of the two simulations indicates that identical eruptions occurring at the same time at the two volcanic centres display significantly different dispersal axes as a consequence of the different local wind field acting at the respective eruptive vents. At the Vesuvio the volcano, a plinian eruptive event with the dynamical parameters of the 79 A.D. eruption was simulated daily for one year, from 1st July 2005 to 30th June 2006. The statistical processing of results points out that, although in most cases the ash cloud dispersal encompasses many different areas, generally the easterly southeasterly direction is preferred. Our results highlight the significant role of wind field trends in influencing the distribution of ash particles from eruptive columns and prove that the dynamical parameters that most influence the variability of plume dispersal are the duration of the eruption and the maximum column height. Finally, the possible use of cloud simulations for refining hazard maps of areas exposed to volcanic ash dispersal is proposed.

Report on a Visit to the U.S.A. during January 1982 Relating to the Effect of Turbulence and Other Meteorological Hazards on Aircraft Flight

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-08-01

experienced nearly the same wind shear problems as arose with the accident at JFK airport . The measurements are probably quite significant for Australia as...is between -4 and +4. (The accident at JFK airport occurred with a - +4). Roland produced z table showing that as a increased over the positive range...Eastern Airlines accident at JFK airport . He also mentioned that NSSL had a contract with MIT to use a flight simulator with a simulated convective wind

Evaluation of Space Plasma Data: Effects upon Spacecraft Materials and Predictions of Hazardous Conditions; Polar ARCS

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-02-28

or a significant amount of solar -produced ionization is convecting into the region from sunlit areas. The weak nature of the precipitation events and...8 spacecraft was located in the downstream solar wind (SM coordinates: -2 6 RE x, 2 7 RE y, -1.2 RE z). The vector components and total field stength...of the IMF for the 2 hours before and 1 hour after launch are shown in Figure 6. Assuming an average solar wind speed of 400 km/sec, IMF conditions

Working Group on Ice Forces (4th) State-of-the-Art Report Held in Iowa City, Iowa in 1986.

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-01

INTRODUCTION When droplets generated from sea water fly in cold air, cool and hit an object, spray ice will form. Spray ice causes hazards and...or spray generated by waves hitting the structure. Wind-generated spray forms as a result of direct whipping of wave crests by the wind and of bursting...Spray generated by waves hitting a structure, on the other hand, can result in very high liquid water contents. Values of up to 5 kgm -3 have been

Simulating Turbulent Wind Fields for Offshore Turbines in Hurricane-Prone Regions (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Y.; Damiani, R.; Musial, W.

Extreme wind load cases are one of the most important external conditions in the design of offshore wind turbines in hurricane prone regions. Furthermore, in these areas, the increase in load with storm return-period is higher than in extra-tropical regions. However, current standards have limited information on the appropriate models to simulate wind loads from hurricanes. This study investigates turbulent wind models for load analysis of offshore wind turbines subjected to hurricane conditions. Suggested extreme wind models in IEC 61400-3 and API/ABS (a widely-used standard in oil and gas industry) are investigated. The present study further examines the wind turbinemore » response subjected to Hurricane wind loads. Three-dimensional wind simulator, TurbSim, is modified to include the API wind model. Wind fields simulated using IEC and API wind models are used for an offshore wind turbine model established in FAST to calculate turbine loads and response.« less

Potential slab avalanche release area identification from estimated winter terrain: a multi-scale, fuzzy logic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veitinger, Jochen; Purves, Ross Stuart; Sovilla, Betty

2016-10-01

Avalanche hazard assessment requires a very precise estimation of the release area, which still depends, to a large extent, on expert judgement of avalanche specialists. Therefore, a new algorithm for automated identification of potential avalanche release areas was developed. It overcomes some of the limitations of previous tools, which are currently not often applied in hazard mitigation practice. By introducing a multi-scale roughness parameter, fine-scale topography and its attenuation under snow influence is captured. This allows the assessment of snow influence on terrain morphology and, consequently, potential release area size and location. The integration of a wind shelter index enables the user to define release area scenarios as a function of the prevailing wind direction or single storm events. A case study illustrates the practical usefulness of this approach for the definition of release area scenarios under varying snow cover and wind conditions. A validation with historical data demonstrated an improved estimation of avalanche release areas. Our method outperforms a slope-based approach, in particular for more frequent avalanches; however, the application of the algorithm as a forecasting tool remains limited, as snowpack stability is not integrated. Future research activity should therefore focus on the coupling of the algorithm with snowpack conditions.

An integrated modeling method for wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadaeinedjad, Roohollah

To study the interaction of the electrical, mechanical, and aerodynamic aspects of a wind turbine, a detailed model that considers all these aspects must be used. A drawback of many studies in the area of wind turbine simulation is that either a very simple mechanical model is used with a detailed electrical model, or vice versa. Hence the interactions between electrical and mechanical aspects of wind turbine operation are not accurately taken into account. In this research, it will be shown that a combination of different simulation packages, namely TurbSim, FAST, and Simulink can be used to model the aerodynamic, mechanical, and electrical aspects of a wind turbine in detail. In this thesis, after a review of some wind turbine concepts and software tools, a simulation structure is proposed for studying wind turbines that integrates the mechanical and electrical components of a wind energy conversion device. Based on the simulation structure, a comprehensive model for a three-bladed variable speed wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator is developed. Using the model, the impact of a voltage sag on the wind turbine tower vibration is investigated under various operating conditions such as power system short circuit level, mechanical parameters, and wind turbine operating conditions. It is shown how an electrical disturbance can cause more sustainable tower vibrations under high speed and turbulent wind conditions, which may disrupt the operation of pitch control system. A similar simulation structure is used to model a two-bladed fixed speed wind turbine with an induction generator. An extension of the concept is introduced by adding a diesel generator system. The model is utilized to study the impact of the aeroelastic aspects of wind turbine (i.e. tower shadow, wind shears, yaw error, turbulence, and mechanical vibrations) on the power quality of a stand-alone wind-diesel system. Furthermore, an IEEE standard flickermeter model is implemented in a Simulink environment to study the flicker contribution of the wind turbine in the wind-diesel system. By using a new wind power plant representation method, a large wind farm (consisting of 96 fixed speed wind turbines) is modelled to study the power quality of wind power system. The flicker contribution of wind farm is also studied with different wind turbine numbers, using the flickermeter model. Keywords. Simulink, FAST, TurbSim, AreoDyn, wind energy, doubly-fed induction generator, variable speed wind turbine, voltage sag, tower vibration, power quality, flicker, fixed speed wind turbine, wind shear, tower shadow, and yaw error.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. Formore » example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.« less

Hazards and hazard combinations relevant for the safety of nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, Kurt; Brinkman, Hans; Raimond, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

The potential of the contemporaneous impact of different, yet causally related, hazardous events and event cascades on nuclear power plants is a major contributor to the overall risk of nuclear installations. In the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, which was caused by a combination of severe ground shaking by an earthquake, an earthquake-triggered tsunami and the disruption of the plants from the electrical grid by a seismically induced landslide, hazard combinations and hazard cascades moved into the focus of nuclear safety research. We therefore developed an exhaustive list of external hazards and hazard combinations which pose potential threats to nuclear installations in the framework of the European project ASAMPSAE (Advanced Safety Assessment: Extended PSA). The project gathers 31 partners from Europe, North Amerika and Japan. The list comprises of exhaustive lists of natural hazards, external man-made hazards, and a cross-correlation matrix of these hazards. The hazard list is regarded comprehensive by including all types of hazards that were previously cited in documents by IAEA, the Western European Nuclear Regulators Association (WENRA), and others. 73 natural hazards and 24 man-made external hazards are included. Natural hazards are grouped into seismotectonic hazards, flooding and hydrological hazards, extreme values of meteorological phenomena, rare meteorological phenomena, biological hazards / infestation, geological hazards, and forest fire / wild fire. The list of external man-made hazards includes industry accidents, military accidents, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents and other man-made external events. The large number of different hazards results in the extremely large number of 5.151 theoretically possible hazard combinations (not considering hazard cascades). In principle all of these combinations are possible to occur by random coincidence except for 82 hazard combinations that - depending on the time scale - are mutually exclusive (e.g., extremely high air temperature and surface ice). Our dataset further provides information on hazard combinations which are more likely to occur than just by random coincidence. 577 correlations between individual hazards are identified by expert opinion and shown in a cross-correlation chart. Combinations discriminate between: (1) causally connected hazards (cause-effect relation) where one hazard (e.g., costal erosion) may be caused by another hazard (e.g., storm surge); or where one hazard (e.g., high wind) is a prerequisite for a correlated hazard (e.g., storm surge). The identified causal links are not commutative. (2) Associated hazards ("contemporary" events) which are probable to occur at the same time due to a common root cause (e.g., a cold front of a meteorological low pressure area which leads to a drop of air pressure, high wind, thunderstorm, lightning, heavy rain and hail). The root cause may not necessarily be regarded as a hazard by itself. The hazard list and the hazard correlation chart may serve as a starting point for the hazard analysis process for nuclear installations in Level 1 PSA as outlined by IAEA (2010), the definition of design basis for nuclear reactors, and the assessment of design extension conditions as required by WENRA-RHWG (2014). It may further be helpful for the identification of hazard combinations and hazard cascades which threaten other critical infrastructure. References: Decker, K. & Brinkman, H., 2017. List of external hazards to be considered in extended PSA. Report No. ASAMPSA_E/WP21/D21.2/2017-41 - IRSN/ PSN-RES/SAG/2017-00011 IAEA, 2010. Development and Application of Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants. Safety Guide No. SSG-3, Vienna. http://www-pub.iaea.org/books/ WENRA-RHWG, 2014. WENRA Safety Reference Levels for Existing Reactors. Update in Relation to Lessons Learned from TEPCO Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident. http://www.wenra.org/publications/

Wind Energy Modeling and Simulation | Wind | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Wind Energy Modeling and Simulation Wind Turbine Modeling and Simulation Wind turbines are unique wind turbines. It enables the analysis of a range of wind turbine configurations, including: Two- or (SOWFA) employs computational fluid dynamics to allow users to investigate wind turbine and wind power

Verification and Calibration of a Reduced Order Wind Farm Model by Wind Tunnel Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreiber, J.; Nanos, E. M.; Campagnolo, F.; Bottasso, C. L.

2017-05-01

In this paper an adaptation of the FLORIS approach is considered that models the wind flow and power production within a wind farm. In preparation to the use of this model for wind farm control, this paper considers the problem of its calibration and validation with the use of experimental observations. The model parameters are first identified based on measurements performed on an isolated scaled wind turbine operated in a boundary layer wind tunnel in various wind-misalignment conditions. Next, the wind farm model is verified with results of experimental tests conducted on three interacting scaled wind turbines. Although some differences in the estimated absolute power are observed, the model appears to be capable of identifying with good accuracy the wind turbine misalignment angles that, by deflecting the wake, lead to maximum power for the investigated layouts.

Airborne lidar wind detection at 2 μm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Targ, Russell; Hawley, James G.; Steakley, Bruce C.; Ames, Lawrence L.; Robinson, Paul A.

1995-06-01

NASA and the FAA have expressed interest in laser radar's capabilities to detect wind profiles at altitude. A number of programs have been addressing the technical feasibility and utility of laser radar atmospheric backscatter data to determine wind profiles and wind hazards for aircraft guidance and navigation. In addition, the U.S. Air Force is investigating the use of airborne lidar to achieve precision air drop capability, and to increase the accuracy of the AC- 130 gunship and the B-52 bomber by measuring the wind field from the aircraft to the ground. There are emerging capabilities of airborne laser radar to measure wind velocities and detect turbulence and other atmospheric disturbances out in front of an aircraft in real time. The measurement of these parameters can significantly increase fuel efficiency, flight safety, airframe lifetime, and terminal area capacity for new and existing aircraft. This is achieved through wind velocity detection, turbulence avoidance, active control utilization to alleviate gust loading, and detection of wingtip wake vortices produced by landing aircraft. This paper presents the first flight test results of an all solid-state 2-micrometers laser radar system measuring the wind field profile 1 to 2 km in front of an aircraft in real time. We find 0.7-m/s wind measurement accuracy for the system which is configured in a rugged, light weight, high- performance ARINC package.

Modeling smoke plume patterns in drainage flows

Treesearch

M.A. Fosberg

1985-01-01

A three-dimensional diagnostic wind model for use in complex terrain has been combined with a three-dimensional trajectory and puff air quality model. The wind model utilizes a terrain following coordinate system and conserves both mass and momentum. The wind model provides the winds required by the predictive trajectory and puff dispersion model. Both the wind model...

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or component on the critical path is relatively more important in a risk-informed environment. Significance of multi-hazard risk is also illustrated for uncorrelated hazards of earthquakes and high winds which may result in competing design objectives. It is also illustrated that the number of computationally intensive nonlinear simulations needed in performance-based risk assessment for external hazards can be significantly reduced by using the power of Bayesian updating in conjunction with the concept of equivalent limit-state.

Comparing offshore wind farm wake observed from satellite SAR and wake model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bay Hasager, Charlotte

2014-05-01

Offshore winds can be observed from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR). In the FP7 EERA DTOC project, the European Energy Research Alliance project on Design Tools for Offshore Wind Farm Clusters, there is focus on mid- to far-field wind farm wakes. The more wind farms are constructed nearby other wind farms, the more is the potential loss in annual energy production in all neighboring wind farms due to wind farm cluster effects. It is of course dependent upon the prevailing wind directions and wind speed levels, the distance between the wind farms, the wind turbine sizes and spacing. Some knowledge is available within wind farm arrays and in the near-field from various investigations. There are 58 offshore wind farms in the Northern European seas grid connected and in operation. Several of those are spaced near each other. There are several twin wind farms in operation including Nysted-1 and Rødsand-2 in the Baltic Sea, and Horns Rev 1 and Horns Rev 2, Egmond aan Zee and Prinses Amalia, and Thompton 1 and Thompton 2 all in the North Sea. There are ambitious plans of constructing numerous wind farms - great clusters of offshore wind farms. Current investigation of offshore wind farms includes mapping from high-resolution satellite SAR of several of the offshore wind farms in operation in the North Sea. Around 20 images with wind farm wake cases have been retrieved and processed. The data are from the Canadian RADARSAT-1/-2 satellites. These observe in microwave C-band and have been used for ocean surface wind retrieval during several years. The satellite wind maps are valid at 10 m above sea level. The wakes are identified in the raw images as darker areas downwind of the wind farms. In the SAR-based wind maps the wake deficit is found as areas of lower winds downwind of the wind farms compared to parallel undisturbed flow in the flow direction. The wind direction is clearly visible from lee effects and wind streaks in the images. The wind farm wake cases are modeled by various types of wake models. In the EERA DTOC project the model suite consists of engineering models (Ainslie, DWM, GLC, PARK, WASP/NOJ), simplified CFD models (FUGA, FarmFlow), full CFD models (CRES-flowNS, RANS), mesoscale model (SKIRON, WRF) and coupled meso-scale and microscale models. The comparison analysis between the satellite wind wake and model results will be presented and discussed. It is first time a comprehensive analysis is performed on this subject. The topic gains increasing importance because there is a growing need to precisely model also mid- and far-field wind farms wakes for development and planning of offshore wind farm clusters.

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T.; Negron, José F.; Smith, Jeremy M.

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior. PMID:22272268

Quantification of Covariance in Tropical Cyclone Activity across Teleconnected Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.; Wang, D.

2015-12-01

Rigorous statistical quantification of natural hazard covariance across regions has important implications for risk management, and is also of fundamental scientific interest. We present a multivariate Bayesian Poisson regression model for inferring the covariance in tropical cyclone (TC) counts across multiple ocean basins and across Saffir-Simpson intensity categories. Such covariability results from the influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on local environments that can alternately suppress or enhance TC genesis and intensification, and our model also simultaneously quantifies the covariance of TC counts with various climatic modes in order to deduce the source of inter-basin TC covariability. The model explicitly treats the time-dependent uncertainty in observed maximum sustained wind data, and hence the nominal intensity category of each TC. Differences in annual TC counts as measured by different agencies are also formally addressed. The probabilistic output of the model can be probed for probabilistic answers to such questions as: - Does the relationship between different categories of TCs differ statistically by basin? - Which climatic predictors have significant relationships with TC activity in each basin? - Are the relationships between counts in different basins conditionally independent given the climatic predictors, or are there other factors at play affecting inter-basin covariability? - How can a portfolio of insured property be optimized across space to minimize risk? Although we present results of our model applied to TCs, the framework is generalizable to covariance estimation between multivariate counts of natural hazards across regions and/or across peril types.

Sensitivity analysis of the space shuttle to ascent wind profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, O. E.; Austin, L. D., Jr.

1982-01-01

A parametric sensitivity analysis of the space shuttle ascent flight to the wind profile is presented. Engineering systems parameters are obtained by flight simulations using wind profile models and samples of detailed (Jimsphere) wind profile measurements. The wind models used are the synthetic vector wind model, with and without the design gust, and a model of the vector wind change with respect to time. From these comparison analyses an insight is gained on the contribution of winds to ascent subsystems flight parameters.

Recent Developments on Airborne Forward Looking Interferometer for the Detection of Wake Vortices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Taumi S.; Smith, William L.; Kirev, Stanislav

2012-01-01

A goal of these studies was development of the measurement methods and algorithms necessary to detect wake vortex hazards in real time from either an aircraft or ground-based hyperspectral Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS). This paper provides an update on research to model FTS detection of wake vortices. The Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) was used to generate wake vortex fields of 3-D winds, temperature, and absolute humidity. These fields were input to the Line by Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM), a hyperspectral radiance model in the infrared, employed for the FTS numerical modeling. An initial set of cases has been analyzed to identify a wake vortex IR signature and signature sensitivities to various state variables. Results from the numerical modeling case studies will be presented. Preliminary results indicated that an imaging IR instrument sensitive to six narrow bands within the 670 to 3150 per centimeter spectral region would be sufficient for wake vortex detection. Noise floor estimates for a recommended instrument are a current research topic.

Predicting Near-surface Winds with WindNinja for Wind Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Shannon, K.; Butler, B.

2016-12-01

WindNinja is a high-resolution diagnostic wind model widely used by operational wildland fire managers to predict how near-surface winds may influence fire behavior. Many of the features which have made WindNinja successful for wildland fire are also important for wind energy applications. Some of these features include flexible runtime options which allow the user to initialize the model with coarser scale weather model forecasts, sparse weather station observations, or a simple domain-average wind for what-if scenarios; built-in data fetchers for required model inputs, including gridded terrain and vegetation data and operational weather model forecasts; relatively fast runtimes on simple hardware; an extremely user-friendly interface; and a number of output format options, including KMZ files for viewing in Google Earth and GeoPDFs which can be viewed in a GIS. The recent addition of a conservation of mass and momentum solver based on OpenFOAM libraries further increases the utility of WindNinja to modelers in the wind energy sector interested not just in mean wind predictions, but also in turbulence metrics. Here we provide an evaluation of WindNinja forecasts based on (1) operational weather model forecasts and (2) weather station observations provided by the MesoWest API. We also compare the high-resolution WindNinja forecasts to the coarser operational weather model forecasts. For this work we will use the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Forecasts will be evaluated with data collected in the Birch Creek valley of eastern Idaho, USA between June-October 2013. Near-surface wind, turbulence data, and vertical wind and temperature profiles were collected at very high spatial resolution during this field campaign specifically for use in evaluating high-resolution wind models like WindNinja. This work demonstrates the ability of WindNinja to generate very high-resolution wind forecasts for wind energy applications and evaluates the forecasts produced by two different initialization methods with data collected in a broad valley surrounded by complex terrain.

Fugitive Methane Gas Emission Monitoring in oil and gas industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, Levente

Identifying fugitive methane leaks allow optimization of the extraction process, can extend gas extraction equipment lifetime, and eliminate hazardous work conditions. We demonstrate a wireless sensor network based on cost effective and robust chemi-resistive methane sensors combined with real time analytics to identify leaks from 2 scfh to 10000 scfh. The chemi-resistive sensors were validated for sensitivity better than 1 ppm of methane plume detection. The real time chemical sensor and wind data is integrated into an inversion models to identify the location and the magnitude of the methane leak. This integrated solution can be deployed in outdoor environment formore » long term monitoring of chemical plumes.« less

Applications of a Forward-Looking Interferometer for the On-board Detection of Aviation Weather Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Leanne; Gimmestad, Gary; Smith, William; Kireev, Stanislav; Cornman, Larry B.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Tsoucalas, George

2008-01-01

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is a new instrument concept for obtaining measurements of potential weather hazards to alert flight crews. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared (IR) Fourier Transform Spectrometry (FTS) technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing, and which have also been applied to the detection of aerosols and gases for other purposes. It is being evaluated for multiple hazards including clear air turbulence (CAT), volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing, during all phases of flight. Previous sensitivity and characterization studies addressed the phenomenology that supports detection and mitigation by the FLI. Techniques for determining the range, and hence warning time, were demonstrated for several of the hazards, and a table of research instrument parameters was developed for investigating all of the hazards discussed above. This work supports the feasibility of detecting multiple hazards with an FLI multi-hazard airborne sensor, and for producing enhanced IR images in reduced visibility conditions; however, further research must be performed to develop a means to estimate the intensities of the hazards posed to an aircraft and to develop robust algorithms to relate sensor measurables to hazard levels. In addition, validation tests need to be performed with a prototype system.

Introducing WISDEM:An Integrated System Modeling for Wind Turbines and Plant (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dykes, K.; Graf, P.; Scott, G.

2015-01-01

The National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems to achieve a better National Wind Technology Center wind energy systems engineering initiative has developed an analysis platform to leverage its research capabilities toward integrating wind energy engineering and cost models across wind plants. This Wind-Plant Integrated System Design & Engineering Model (WISDEM) platform captures the important interactions between various subsystems tomore » achieve a better understanding of how to improve system-level performance and achieve system-level cost reductions. This work illustrates a few case studies with WISDEM that focus on the design and analysis of wind turbines and plants at different system levels.« less

Analysis of axial-induction-based wind plant control using an engineering and a high-order wind plant model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annoni, Jennifer; Gebraad, Pieter M. O.; Scholbrock, Andrew K.

2015-08-14

Wind turbines are typically operated to maximize their performance without considering the impact of wake effects on nearby turbines. Wind plant control concepts aim to increase overall wind plant performance by coordinating the operation of the turbines. This paper focuses on axial-induction-based wind plant control techniques, in which the generator torque or blade pitch degrees of freedom of the wind turbines are adjusted. The paper addresses discrepancies between a high-order wind plant model and an engineering wind plant model. Changes in the engineering model are proposed to better capture the effects of axial-induction-based control shown in the high-order model.

Special Issue "Impact of Natural Hazards on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru Dan, M.

2009-04-01

This special issue includes selected papers on the topic of earthquake impact from the sessions held in 2004 in Nice, France and in 2005 in Vienna, Austria at the first and respectivelly the second European Geosciences Union General Assembly. Since its start in 1999, in the Hague, Netherlands, the hazard of earthquakes has been the most popular of the session. The respective calls in 2004 was for: Nature's forces including earthquakes, floods, landslides, high winds and volcanic eruptions can inflict losses to urban settlements and man-made structures such as infrastructure. In Europe, recent years have seen such significant losses from earthquakes in south and south-eastern Europe, floods in central Europe, and wind storms in western Europe. Meanwhile, significant progress has been made in understanding disasters. Several scientific fields contribute to a holistic approach in the evaluation of capacities, vulnerabilities and hazards, the main factors on mitigating urban disasters due to natural hazards. An important part of the session is devoted to assessment of earthquake shaking and loss scenarios, including both physical damage and human causalities. Early warning and rapid damage evaluation are of utmost importance for addressing the safety of many essential facilities, for emergency management of events and for disaster response. In case of earthquake occurrence strong motion networks, data processing and interpretation lead to preliminary estimation (scenarios) of geographical distribution of damages. Factual information on inflicted damage, like those obtained from shaking maps or aerial imagery permit a confrontation with simulation maps of damage in order to define a more accurate picture of the overall losses. Most recent developments towards quantitative and qualitative simulation of natural hazard impacts on urban areas, which provide decision-making support for urban disaster management, and success stories of and lessons learned from disaster mitigation will be presented. The session includes contributions showing methodological and modelling approaches from scientists in geophysical/seismological, hydrological, remote sensing, civil engineering, insurance, and urbanism, amongst other fields, as well as presentations from practitioners working on specific case studies, regarding analysis of recent events and their impact on cities as well as re-evaluation of past events from the point of view of long-time recovery. In 2005 it was called for: Most strategies for both preparedness and emergency management in case of disaster mitigation are related to urban planning. While natural, engineering and social sciences contribute to the evaluation of the impact of earthquakes and their secondary events (including tsunamis, earthquake triggered landslides, or fire), floods, landslides, high winds, and volcanic eruptions on urban areas, there are the instruments of urban planning which are to be employed for both visualisation as well as development and implementation of strategy concepts for pre- and postdisaster intervention. The evolution of natural systems towards extreme conditions is taken into consideration so far at it concerns the damaging impact on urban areas and infrastructure and the impact on the natural environment of interventions to reduce such damaging impact.

High-resolution simulation of heatwave events in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramamurthy, P.; Li, D.; Bou-Zeid, E.

2017-04-01

Heatwave intensity and frequency are predicted to increase in the coming years, and this will bear adverse consequences to the environmental well-being and the socio-economic fabric in urbanized areas. The hazardous combination of increased heat storage and reduced water retention capacities of the land surface make the urban areas warmer than the surrounding rural areas in what is commonly known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The primary motives of this study are to quantify the interaction of this city-scale UHI with synoptic-scale heatwave episodes and to analyze the factors that mediate this interaction. A modified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is utilized to simulate two heatwave episodes in New York City. The land surface scheme in the default WRF model is modified to better represent the surface to atmosphere exchanges over urban areas. Our results indicate that during the heatwave episodes, the daily-averaged UHI in NYC increased by 1.5 K. Furthermore, most of this amplification occurs in the mid-afternoon period when the temperatures peak. Wind direction and urban-rural contrasts in available energy and moisture availability are found to have significant and systematic effects on the UHI, but wind speed plays a secondary role.

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.

PubMed

Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

2014-06-01

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations.

The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: MOD 3 (with spherical harmonic wind model)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Fletcher, G. R.; Gramling, F. E.; Pace, W. B.

1980-01-01

Improvements to the global reference atmospheric model are described. The basic model includes monthly mean values of pressure, density, temperature, and geostrophic winds, as well as quasi-biennial and small and large scale random perturbations. A spherical harmonic wind model for the 25 to 90 km height range is included. Below 25 km and above 90 km, the GRAM program uses the geostrophic wind equations and pressure data to compute the mean wind. In the altitudes where the geostrophic wind relations are used, an interpolation scheme is employed for estimating winds at low latitudes where the geostrophic wind relations being to mesh down. Several sample wind profiles are given, as computed by the spherical harmonic model. User and programmer manuals are presented.

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... trees, or to respond to natural events provided that the activity is consistent with the Wild and Scenic...

On the Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Projections for Infrastructure Risk Analysis and Adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Storm surge can cause coastal hydrology changes, flooding, water quality changes, and even inundation of low-lying terrain. Strong wave actions and disruptive winds can damage water infrastructure and other environmental assets (hazardous and solid waste management facilities, w...

Pendulum impact testing of an impact-breakaway, windresistant base connection for multi-post ground signs : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

Roadside signs are critical to traffic control. : However, if not properly designed to yield : upon vehicle impact, these signs become lifethreatening : hazards. Yet, the signs must be able : to withstand wind loading, in Florida, up to : hurricane f...

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center: A four-year summary and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Andrew I.; Holle, Ronald L.; Lopez, Raul E.; Nicholson, James R.

1991-01-01

Since 1986, USAF forecasters at NASA-Kennedy have had available a surface wind convergence technique for use during periods of convective development. In Florida during the summer, most of the thunderstorm development is forced by boundary layer processes. The basic premise is that the life cycle of convection is reflected in the surface wind field beneath these storms. Therefore the monitoring of the local surface divergence and/or convergence fields can be used to determine timing, location, longevity, and the lightning hazards which accompany these thunderstorms. This study evaluates four years of monitoring thunderstorm development using surface wind convergence, particularly the average over the area. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is related in time and space with surface convergence for 346 days during the summers of 1987 through 1990 over the expanded wind network at KSC. The relationships are subdivided according to low level wind flow and midlevel moisture patterns. Results show a one in three chance of CG lightning when a convergence event is identified. However, when there is no convergence, the chance of CG lightning is negligible.

Wind erosion of waste impoundments in arid climates and mitigation of dust pollution.

PubMed

Blight, G E

2008-12-01

Wind can erode and disperse fine-grained material from an impoundment of mining, industrial or municipal waste that stands above the level of its surroundings. Such dust dispersion can be a serious nuisance as well as a health hazard to inhabitants and animals in nearby settlements. It can also degrade crops, making them less marketable, and pollute soil, surface water and ground water. Wind can seasonally erode waste impoundments in all types of climate, but the erosion intensifies and persists for more of each year as regional aridity increases. As clouds of dust are often observed billowing across the top surfaces of waste impoundments in dry windy weather, there is a common misconception that dust arises from erosion of the top surface of an impoundment, resulting in much effort and money being misspent on top treatments when in fact the sloped sides of the impoundments are the true source of blown dust. This paper offers a brief review of general waste impoundment wind erosion issues and then focuses in more detail on the mechanics of how wind erodes surfaces of waste impoundments. Recommendations are offered for mitigating the effects of wind-eroded dust.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

[Offshore substation workers' exposure to harmful factors - Actions minimizing risk of hazards].

PubMed

Piotrowski, Paweł Janusz; Robak, Sylwester; Polewaczyk, Mateusz Maksymilian; Raczkowski, Robert

2016-01-01

The current development of electric power industry in Poland, especially in the field of renewable energy sources, including wind power, brings about the need to introduce legislation on new work environment. The development of occupational safety and health (OSH) regulations that must be met by new workplaces, such as offshore substations becomes necessary in view of the construction of modern offshore wind power plants - offshore wind farms. Staying on offshore substation is associated with an increased exposure to harmful health factors: physical, chemical, biological and psychophysical. The main sources of health risks on offshore substations are: temperature, electromagnetic field, noise from operating wind turbines, direct and alternating current, chemicals, Legionella bacteria and social isolation of people. The aim of this article is to draw attention to the problem of offshore substation workers' exposure to harmful factors and to present methods of preventing and reducing the risk-related adverse health effects. In this paper, there are identified and described risks occurring on offshore substations (fire, explosion, lightning, accidents at work). Some examples of the means and the methods for reducing the negative impact of exposure on the human health are presented and discussed. The article also highlights the need to develop appropriate laws and health and safety regulations concerning the new working environment at the offshore substations. The review of researches and international standards shows that some of them can be introduced into the Polish labor market. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Static Aeroelastic Scaling and Analysis of a Sub-Scale Flexible Wing Wind Tunnel Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ting, Eric; Lebofsky, Sonia; Nguyen, Nhan; Trinh, Khanh

2014-01-01

This paper presents an approach to the development of a scaled wind tunnel model for static aeroelastic similarity with a full-scale wing model. The full-scale aircraft model is based on the NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) with flexible wing structures referred to as the Elastically Shaped Aircraft Concept (ESAC). The baseline stiffness of the ESAC wing represents a conventionally stiff wing model. Static aeroelastic scaling is conducted on the stiff wing configuration to develop the wind tunnel model, but additional tailoring is also conducted such that the wind tunnel model achieves a 10% wing tip deflection at the wind tunnel test condition. An aeroelastic scaling procedure and analysis is conducted, and a sub-scale flexible wind tunnel model based on the full-scale's undeformed jig-shape is developed. Optimization of the flexible wind tunnel model's undeflected twist along the span, or pre-twist or wash-out, is then conducted for the design test condition. The resulting wind tunnel model is an aeroelastic model designed for the wind tunnel test condition.

Comparison of wind velocity in thunderstorms determined from measurements by a ground-based Doppler radar and an F-106B airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usry, J. W.; Dunham, R. E., Jr.; Lee, J. T.

1985-01-01

As a part of the NASA Storm Hazards Program, the wind velocity in several thunderstorms was measured by an F-106B instrumented airplane and a ground-based Doppler radar. The results of five airplane penetrations of two storms in 1980 and six penetrations of one storm in 1981 are given. Comparisons were made between the radial wind velocity components measured by the radar and the airplane. The correlation coefficients for the 1980 data and part of the 1981 data were 0.88 and 0.78, respectively. It is suggested that larger values for these coefficients may be obtained by improving the experimental technique and in particular by slaving the radar to track the airplane during such tests.

Empirical models of wind conditions on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Wood, Tamara M.

2010-01-01

Upper Klamath Lake is a large (230 square kilometers), shallow (mean depth 2.8 meters at full pool) lake in southern Oregon. Lake circulation patterns are driven largely by wind, and the resulting currents affect the water quality and ecology of the lake. To support hydrodynamic modeling of the lake and statistical investigations of the relation between wind and lake water-quality measurements, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored wind conditions along the lakeshore and at floating raft sites in the middle of the lake since 2005. In order to make the existing wind archive more useful, this report summarizes the development of empirical wind models that serve two purposes: (1) to fill short (on the order of hours or days) wind data gaps at raft sites in the middle of the lake, and (2) to reconstruct, on a daily basis, over periods of months to years, historical wind conditions at U.S. Geological Survey sites prior to 2005. Empirical wind models based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate-Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) algorithms were compared. ANNs were better suited to simulating the 10-minute wind data that are the dependent variables of the gap-filling models, but the simpler MARS algorithm may be adequate to accurately simulate the daily wind data that are the dependent variables of the historical wind models. To further test the accuracy of the gap-filling models, the resulting simulated winds were used to force the hydrodynamic model of the lake, and the resulting simulated currents were compared to measurements from an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The error statistics indicated that the simulation of currents was degraded as compared to when the model was forced with observed winds, but probably is adequate for short gaps in the data of a few days or less. Transport seems to be less affected by the use of the simulated winds in place of observed winds. The simulated tracer concentration was similar between model results when simulated winds were used to force the model, and when observed winds were used to force the model, and differences between the two results did not accumulate over time.

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallozzi, Kyle J.

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi-stationary fronts/outflow boundaries, a moist troposphere and front-paralleling 850-300 hPa mean winds. In this environment, individual convective cells can be advected downstream along the initiating boundary, resulting in flood-producing training echoes. A relatively moist troposphere leads to efficient precipitation production, limits cold-pool formation/off-boundary propagation, and further increases the likelihood of flash flooding.

Assessing the representativeness of wind data for wind turbine site evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Renne, D. S.; Corotis, R. B.

1982-01-01

Once potential wind turbine sites (either for single installations or clusters) are identified through siting procedures, actual evaluation of the sites must commence. This evaluation is needed to obtain estimates of wind turbine performance and to identify hazards to the machine from the turbulence component of the atmosphere. These estimates allow for more detailed project planning and for preliminary financing arrangements to be secured. The site evaluation process can occur in two stages: (1) utilizing existing nearby data, and (2) establishing and monitoring an onsite measurement program. Since step (2) requires a period of at least 1 yr or more from the time a potential site has been identified, step (1) is often an essential stage in the preliminary evaluation process. Both the methods that have been developed and the unknowns that still exist in assessing the representativeness of available data to a nearby wind turbine site are discussed. How the assessment of the representativeness of available data can be used to develop a more effective onsite meteorological measurement program is also discussed.

Comprehensive evaluation of land quality basing on 3S technology and farmers' survey: A case study in Crisscross Region of Wind-drift Sand Regions along the Great Wall and Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yan-yu; Wang, Jing; Shi, Yan-xi; Li, Yu-huan; Lv, Chun-yan

2005-10-01

The Crisscross Region of Wind-drift Sand Regions along the Great Wall and Loess Plateau locates in southern Ordos Plateau and northern Chinese Loess Plateau, where wind erosion and water erosion coexist and specified environmental and socio-economic factors, especially human activities induce serious land degradation. However, there are only a few studies provide an overall assessment consequences. Integrated land quality assessment considering impacts of soil, topography, vegetation, environmental hazards, social-economic factors and land managements are imperative to the regional sustainable land managements. A pilot study was made in Hengshan County (Shanxi Province) with the objective of developing comprehensive land quality evaluation model integrating data from farmers' survey and Remote Sensing. Surveys were carried out in 107 households of study area in 2003 and 2004 to get farmers' perceptions of land quality and to collect correlative information. It was found out that farmers evaluated land quality by slope, water availability, soil texture, yields, amount of fertilizer, crop performance, sandy erosion degree and water erosion degree. Scientists' indicators which emphasize on getting information by RS technology were introduced to reflecting above indicators information for the sake of developing a rapid, efficient and local-fitted land quality assessment model including social-economic, environmental and anthropogenic factors. Data from satellite and surveys were integrated with socio-economic statistic data using geographical information system (GIS) and three indexes, namely Production Press Index (PPI), Land State Index (LSI) and Farmer Behavior Index (FBI) were proposed to measure different aspects of land quality. A model was further derived from the three indexes to explore the overall land quality of the study area. Results suggest that local land prevalently had a poor quality. This paper shows that whilst the model was competent for its work in the study area and evaluation results would supply beneficial information for management decisions.

Windward Cooling: An Overlooked Factor in the Calculation of Wind Chill.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osczevski, Randall J.

2000-12-01

Wind chill equivalent temperatures calculated from a recent vertical cylinder model of wind chill are several degrees colder than those calculated from a facial cooling model. The latter was based on experiments with a heated model of a face in a wind tunnel. Wind chill has sometimes been modeled as the overall heat transfer from the surface of a cylinder in cross flow, but such models average the cooling over the whole surface and thus minimize the effect of local cooling on the upwind side, particularly at low wind speeds. In this paper, a vertical cylinder model of wind chill has been modified so that just the cooling of its windward side is considered. Wind chill equivalent temperatures calculated with this new model compare favorably with those calculated by the facial cooling model.

Analysis and model on space-time characteristics of wind power output based on the measured wind speed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Wenhui; Feng, Changyou; Qu, Jixian; Zha, Hao; Ke, Dan

2018-02-01

Most of the existing studies on wind power output focus on the fluctuation of wind farms and the spatial self-complementary of wind power output time series was ignored. Therefore the existing probability models can’t reflect the features of power system incorporating wind farms. This paper analyzed the spatial self-complementary of wind power and proposed a probability model which can reflect temporal characteristics of wind power on seasonal and diurnal timescales based on sufficient measured data and improved clustering method. This model could provide important reference for power system simulation incorporating wind farms.

A Model For Rapid Estimation of Economic Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2012-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

A Novel Wind Speed Forecasting Model for Wind Farms of Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian-Zhou; Wang, Yun

2017-01-01

Wind resources are becoming increasingly significant due to their clean and renewable characteristics, and the integration of wind power into existing electricity systems is imminent. To maintain a stable power supply system that takes into account the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate wind speed forecasting is pivotal. However, no single model can be applied to all cases. Recent studies show that wind speed forecasting errors are approximately 25% to 40% in Chinese wind farms. Presently, hybrid wind speed forecasting models are widely used and have been verified to perform better than conventional single forecasting models, not only in short-term wind speed forecasting but also in long-term forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model is developed, the Similar Coefficient Sum (SCS) and Hermite Interpolation are exploited to process the original wind speed data, and the SVM model whose parameters are tuned by an artificial intelligence model is built to make forecast. The results of case studies show that the MAPE value of the hybrid model varies from 22.96% to 28.87 %, and the MAE value varies from 0.47 m/s to 1.30 m/s. Generally, Sign test, Wilcoxon's Signed-Rank test, and Morgan-Granger-Newbold test tell us that the proposed model is different from the compared models.

MATISSE: a meteorological aviation supporting system developed in a GIS environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rillo, Valeria; Mercogliano, Paola

2014-05-01

Awareness of weather conditions plays an increasing role in different societal and economic sectors, in particular the aviation one which is very sensitive to the meteorological conditions. In fact, adverse meteorological conditions are among the most important causes of accidents causing human and economic losses. For these reasons it is crucial to monitor and nowcast such events and avoid risks during all the flight phases. In this framework CIRA (Italian Aerospace Research Center) has implemented MATISSE (Meteorological AviaTIon Supporting SystEm), an ArcGIS Desktop Plug in, in order to detect and forecast meteorological aviation hazards over the main European airports, by using different sources of meteorological data (synoptic information, satellite data, numerical weather prediction models outputs). Such functionalities are realized after a preprocessing of raw data achieving more complex information, useful for the detection and the forecast of aviation hazards. After that, the data are stored in a database used by ArcGIS and further processed in order to provide maps, graphs and statistics. MATISSE presents a dockable toolbar in a GIS environment, allowing the user to easily select and visualize the desired information. In particular, the user can access to real time functionalities and visualize, on a map, the chosen meteorological hazard or variable (such as visibility conditions, cumulonimbi, wind speeds and directions, present weather, pressure, relative humidity, past weather, cloud cover, height of base of clouds, cloud type, geopotential, altimeter settings, three hour pressure change) over an airport or an area of interest (Europe, Italy). Such variables are represented in a user friendly way, by using simple icons easy to understand and reporting the risk level for aviation in order to provide pilots information about the meteorological conditions during the flight and the following hours. MATISSE, in fact, is able to handle the output of COSMO LM model (NetCDF files) and visualize such information. Moreover it is interfaced to an innovative tool based on MSG-2 satellite data, able to forecast the evolution of cumulonimbi, clouds responsible of thunderstorms, wind shear, icing and turbulence phenomena. MATISSE includes also tool for the statistical characterization of the typical weather bad conditions on the airport of interest, for example percentage of fog events on particular time windows.

CHAWS user`s guide: System description and standard operating procedures, Lexington-Blue Grass Army Depot

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martins, S.A.; Shinn, J.H.

1993-05-01

The Chemical Hazard Warning System (CHAWS) is designed to collect meteorological data and to display, in real time, the dispersion of hazardous chemicals that may result from an accidental release. Meteorological sensors have been placed strategically around the Lexington-Blue Grass Army Depot and are used to calculate direction and hazard distance for the release. Based on these data, arrows depicting the release direction and distance traveled are graphically displayed on a computer screen showing a site map of the facility. The objectives of CHAWS are as follows: To determine the trajectory of the center of mass of released material frommore » the measured wind field; to calculate the dispersion of the released material based on the measured lateral turbulence intensity (sigma theta); to determine the height of the mixing zone by measurement of the inversion height and wind profiles up to an altitude of about 1 km at sites that have SODAR units installed; to archive meteorological data for potential use in climatological descriptions for emergency planning; to archive air-quality data for preparation of compliance reports; and to provide access to the data for near real time hazard analysis purposes. CHAWS sites are located at the Pine Bluff Arsenal, Arkansas, Edgewood area of Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, Tooele Depot, Utah, Lexington-Blue Grass Depot, Kentucky, and Johnston Island in the Pacific. The systems vary between sites with different features and various types of hardware. The basic system, however, is the same. Nonetheless, we have tailored the manuals to the equipment found at each site.« less

Impacts of Wake Effect and Time Delay on the Dynamic Analysis of Wind Farms Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

El-Fouly, Tarek H. M.; El-Saadany, Ehab F.; Salama, Magdy M. A.

2008-01-01

This article investigates the impacts of proper modeling of the wake effects and wind speed delays, between different wind turbines' rows, on the dynamic performance accuracy of the wind farms models. Three different modeling scenarios were compared to highlight the impacts of wake effects and wind speed time-delay models. In the first scenario,…

Systems Engineering Models and Tools | Wind | NREL

Science.gov Websites

(tm)) that provides wind turbine and plant engineering and cost models for holistic system analysis turbine/component models and wind plant analysis models that the systems engineering team produces. If you integrated modeling of wind turbines and plants. It provides guidance for overall wind turbine and plant

Experience with modified aerospace reliability and quality assurance method for wind turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, W. E.

1982-01-01

The SR&QA approach assures that the machine is not hazardous to the public or operating personnel, can operate unattended on a utility grid, demonstrates reliability operation, and helps establish the quality assurance and maintainability requirements for future wind turbine projects. The approach consisted of modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) during the design phase, minimal hardware inspection during parts fabrication, and three simple documents to control activities during machine construction and operation. Five years experience shows that this low cost approach works well enough that it should be considered by others for similar projects.

Investigations of simulated aircraft flight through thunderstorm outflows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frost, W.; Crosby, B.

1978-01-01

The effects of wind shear on aircraft flying through thunderstorm gust fronts were investigated. A computer program was developed to solve the two dimensional, nonlinear equations of aircraft motion, including wind shear. The procedure described and documented accounts for spatial and temporal variations of the aircraft within the flow regime. Analysis of flight paths and control inputs necessary to maintain specified trajectories for aircraft having characteristics of DC-8, B-747, augmentor wing STOL, and DHC-6 aircraft was recorded. From the analysis an attempt was made to find criteria for reduction of the hazards associated with landing through thunderstorm gust fronts.

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

PubMed Central

Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

2014-01-01

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Key Points Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations PMID:26213518

Advanced Modeling System for Optimization of Wind Farm Layout and Wind Turbine Sizing Using a Multi-Level Extended Pattern Search Algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DuPont, Bryony; Cagan, Jonathan; Moriarty, Patrick

This paper presents a system of modeling advances that can be applied in the computational optimization of wind plants. These modeling advances include accurate cost and power modeling, partial wake interaction, and the effects of varying atmospheric stability. To validate the use of this advanced modeling system, it is employed within an Extended Pattern Search (EPS)-Multi-Agent System (MAS) optimization approach for multiple wind scenarios. The wind farm layout optimization problem involves optimizing the position and size of wind turbines such that the aerodynamic effects of upstream turbines are reduced, which increases the effective wind speed and resultant power at eachmore » turbine. The EPS-MAS optimization algorithm employs a profit objective, and an overarching search determines individual turbine positions, with a concurrent EPS-MAS determining the optimal hub height and rotor diameter for each turbine. Two wind cases are considered: (1) constant, unidirectional wind, and (2) three discrete wind speeds and varying wind directions, each of which have a probability of occurrence. Results show the advantages of applying the series of advanced models compared to previous application of an EPS with less advanced models to wind farm layout optimization, and imply best practices for computational optimization of wind farms with improved accuracy.« less

Wind Sensing and Modeling | Grid Modernization | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Simulation at the turbine, wind plant, and regional scales for resource prospecting, resource assessment Sensing and Modeling Wind Sensing and Modeling NREL's wind sensing and modeling work supports the deployment of wind-based generation technologies for all stages of a plant's life, from resource estimates to

Participatory support to farmers in improving safety and health at work: building WIND farmer volunteer networks in Viet Nam.

PubMed

Kawakami, Tsuyoshi; Van, Vhu Nhu; Theu, Nguyen Van; Khai, Ton That; Kogi, Kazutaka

2008-10-01

The government of Viet Nam places a high priority on upgrading the quality of farmers' lives. Providing adequate occupational safety and health (OSH) protection for all farmers is an important challenge. The Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA) of Viet Nam trained WIND (Work Improvement in Neighbourhood Development) farmer volunteers. From 2004-2007, MOLISA in cooperation with ministries of health and agriculture trained 480 WIND farmer volunteers in selected 14 provinces. Trained farmer volunteers trained their neighbouring farmers and expanded their networks. The WIND training programme produced in Cantho, Viet Nam in 1996, was used as the core training methodology. The WIND action-checklist, good example photo-sheets, and other participatory training materials were designed for WIND farmer volunteers as practical training tools. The volunteers trained 7,922 farmers. The trained farmers implemented 28,508 improvements in materials handling, work posture, machine and electrical safety, working environments and control of hazardous chemicals, and welfare facilities. The provincial support committees organized follow-up workshops and strengthen the WIND farmer volunteer networks. The system of WIND farmer volunteers proved effective in extending practical OSH protection measures to farmers at grassroots level. The system of WIND farmer volunteers was adopted in the First National Programme on Labour Protection and OSH of Viet Nam as a practical means in OSH and is now further expanding within the framework of the National Programme.

If I Only Knew Then....

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Terrence E., Jr.

2006-01-01

History teaches that a lack of disaster awareness and preparation are common threads among all major weather-related disasters. Weather hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, blizzards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, or a combination of these. It is important for both family and work colleagues to have an action plan…

NOAA TELEPHONE RECORDINGS

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding . Mariners can now hear the latest coastal and offshore weather observations using Dial-A-Buoy. Dial-A-Buoy wind and wave measurements taken within the last hour at 65 buoy and 54 Coastal-Marine Automated

Effects of wind direction on coarse and fine particulate matter concentrations in southeast Kansas.

PubMed

Guerra, Sergio A; Lane, Dennis D; Marotz, Glen A; Carter, Ray E; Hohl, Carrie M; Baldauf, Richard W

2006-11-01

Field data for coarse particulate matter ([PM] PM10) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were collected at selected sites in Southeast Kansas from March 1999 to October 2000, using portable MiniVol particulate samplers. The purpose was to assess the influence on air quality of four industrial facilities that burn hazardous waste in the area located in the communities of Chanute, Independence, Fredonia, and Coffeyville. Both spatial and temporal variation were observed in the data. Variation because of sampling site was found to be statistically significant for PM10 but not for PM2.5. PM10 concentrations were typically slightly higher at sites located within the four study communities than at background sites. Sampling sites were located north and south of the four targeted sources to provide upwind and downwind monitoring pairs. No statistically significant differences were found between upwind and downwind samples for either PM10 or PM2.5, indicating that the targeted sources did not contribute significantly to PM concentrations. Wind direction can frequently contribute to temporal variation in air pollutant concentrations and was investigated in this study. Sampling days were divided into four classifications: predominantly south winds, predominantly north winds, calm/variable winds, and winds from other directions. The effect of wind direction was found to be statistically significant for both PM10 and PM2.5. For both size ranges, PM concentrations were typically highest on days with predominantly south winds; days with calm/variable winds generally produced higher concentrations than did those with predominantly north winds or those with winds from "other" directions. The significant effect of wind direction suggests that regional sources may exert a large influence on PM concentrations in the area.

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Gove, Matthew D.

2014-01-01

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm surges, incorporating different sources and source parameters of meteotsunamis. Parameterization of atmospheric disturbances and numerical modeling is performed for the computation of maximum meteotsunami wave amplitudes near the coast. A historical record of pressure disturbances is used to establish a continuous analytic distribution of each parameter as well as the overall Poisson rate of occurrence. A demonstration study is presented for the northeast U.S. in which only isolated atmospheric pressure disturbances from squall lines and derechos are considered. For this study, Automated Surface Observing System stations are used to determine the historical parameters of squall lines from 2000 to 2013. The probabilistic equations are implemented using a Monte Carlo scheme, where a synthetic catalog of squall lines is compiled by sampling the parameter distributions. For each entry in the catalog, ocean wave amplitudes are computed using a numerical hydrodynamic model. Aggregation of the results from the Monte Carlo scheme results in a meteotsunami hazard curve that plots the annualized rate of exceedance with respect to maximum event amplitude for a particular location along the coast. Results from using multiple synthetic catalogs, resampled from the parent parameter distributions, yield mean and quantile hazard curves. Further refinements and improvements for probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis are discussed.

Using Socioeconomic Data to Calibrate Loss Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holliday, J. R.; Rundle, J. B.

2013-12-01

One of the loftier goals in seismic hazard analysis is the creation of an end-to-end earthquake prediction system: a "rupture to rafters" work flow that takes a prediction of fault rupture, propagates it with a ground shaking model, and outputs a damage or loss profile at a given location. So far, the initial prediction of an earthquake rupture (either as a point source or a fault system) has proven to be the most difficult and least solved step in this chain. However, this may soon change. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has amassed a suite of earthquake source models for assorted testing regions worldwide. These models are capable of providing rate-based forecasts for earthquake (point) sources over a range of time horizons. Furthermore, these rate forecasts can be easily refined into probabilistic source forecasts. While it's still difficult to fully assess the "goodness" of each of these models, progress is being made: new evaluation procedures are being devised and earthquake statistics continue to accumulate. The scientific community appears to be heading towards a better understanding of rupture predictability. Ground shaking mechanics are better understood, and many different sophisticated models exists. While these models tend to be computationally expensive and often regionally specific, they do a good job at matching empirical data. It is perhaps time to start addressing the third step in the seismic hazard prediction system. We present a model for rapid economic loss estimation using ground motion (PGA or PGV) and socioeconomic measures as its input. We show that the model can be calibrated on a global scale and applied worldwide. We also suggest how the model can be improved and generalized to non-seismic natural disasters such as hurricane and severe wind storms.

Mediterranean space-time extremes of wind wave sea states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Carniel, Sandro; Sclavo, Mauro; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Bonaldo, Davide; Bergamasco, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise

2014-05-01

Traditionally, wind wave sea states during storms have been observed, modeled, and predicted mostly in the time domain, i.e. at a fixed point. In fact, the standard statistical models used in ocean waves analysis rely on the implicit assumption of long-crested waves. Nevertheless, waves in storms are mainly short-crested. Hence, spatio-temporal features of the wave field are crucial to accurately model the sea state characteristics and to provide reliable predictions, particurly of wave extremes. Indeed, the experimental evidence provided by novel instrumentations, e.g. WASS (Wave Acquisition Stereo System), showed that the maximum sea surface elevation gathered in time over an area, i.e. the space-time extreme, is larger than that one measured in time at a point, i.e. the time extreme. Recently, stochastic models used to estimate maxima of multidimensional Gaussian random fields have been applied to ocean waves statistics. These models are based either on Piterbarg's theorem or Adler and Taylor's Euler Characteristics approach. Besides a probability of exceedance of a certain threshold, they can provide the expected space-time extreme of a sea state, as long as space-time wave features (i.e. some parameters of the directional variance density spectrum) are known. These models have been recently validated against WASS observation from fixed and moving platforms. In this context, our focus was modeling and predicting extremes of wind waves during storms. Thus, to intensively gather space-time extremes data over the Mediterranean region, we used directional spectra provided by the numerical wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Therefore, we set up a 6x6 km2 resolution grid entailing most of the Mediterranean Sea and we forced it with COSMO-I7 high resolution (7x7 km2) hourly wind fields, within 2007-2013 period. To obtain the space-time features, i.e. the spectral parameters, at each grid node and over the 6 simulated years, we developed a modified version of the SWAN model, the SWAN Space-Time (SWAN-ST). SWAN-ST results were post-processed to obtain the expected space-time extremes over the model domain. To this end, we applied the stochastic model of Fedele, developed starting from Adler and Taylor's approach, which we found to be more accurate and versatile with respect to Piterbarg's theorem. Results we obtained provide an alternative sight on Mediterranean extreme wave climate, which could represent the first step towards operationl forecasting of space-time wave extremes, on the one hand, and the basis for a novel statistical standard wave model, on the other. These results may benefit marine designers, seafarers and other subjects operating at sea and exposed to the frequent and severe hazard represented by extreme wave conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Jonathan R.; Burnett, Damon J.

Sandia National Laboratories operates the Scaled Wind Farm Technology Facility (SWiFT) on behalf of the Department of Energy Wind and Water Power Technologies Office. An analysis was performed to evaluate the hazards associated with debris thrown from one of SWiFT’s operating wind turbines, assuming a catastrophic failure. A Monte Carlo analysis was conducted to assess the complex variable space associated with debris throw hazards that included wind speed, wind direction, azimuth and pitch angles of the blade, and percentage of the blade that was separated. In addition, a set of high fidelity explicit dynamic finite element simulations were performed tomore » determine the threshold impact energy envelope for the turbine control building located on-site. Assuming that all of the layered, independent, passive and active engineered safety systems and administrative procedures failed (a 100% failure rate of the safety systems), the likelihood of the control building being struck was calculated to be less than 5/10,000 and ballistic simulations showed that the control building would not provide passive protection for the majority of impact scenarios. Although options exist to improve the ballistic resistance of the control building, the recommendation is not to pursue them because there is a low probability of strike and there is an equal likelihood personnel could be located at similar distances in other areas of the SWiFT facility which are not passively protected, while the turbines are operating. A fenced exclusion area has been created around the turbines which restricts access to the boundary of the 1/100 strike probability. The overall recommendation is to neither relocate nor improve passive protection of the control building as the turbine safety systems have been improved to have no less than two independent, redundant, high quality engineered safety systems. Considering this, in combination with a control building strike probability of less than 5/10,000, the overall probability of turbine debris striking the control building is less than 1/1,000,000.« less

IEA Wind Task 37: Systems Modeling Framework and Ontology for Wind Turbines and Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dykes, Katherine L; Zahle, Frederik; Merz, Karl

This presentation will provide an overview of progress to date in the development of a system modeling framework and ontology for wind turbines and plants as part of the larger IEA Wind Task 37 on wind energy systems engineering. The goals of the effort are to create a set of guidelines for a common conceptual architecture for wind turbines and plants so that practitioners can more easily share descriptions of wind turbines and plants across multiple parties and reduce the effort for translating descriptions between models; integrate different models together and collaborate on model development; and translate models among differentmore » levels of fidelity in the system.« less

High resolution modelling and observation of wind-driven surface currents in a semi-enclosed estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, S.; Hartnett, M.; McKinstry, A.; Ragnoli, E.; Nagle, D.

2012-04-01

Hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Firstly, the wind data used in hydrodynamic models is usually measured on land and can be quite different in magnitude and direction from offshore winds. Secondly, surface winds are spatially-varying but due to a lack of data it is common practice to specify a non-varying wind speed and direction across the full extents of a model domain. These problems can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In the present research, a wind forecast model is coupled with a three-dimensional numerical model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of surface wind data resolution on model accuracy. High resolution and low resolution wind fields are specified to the model and the computed surface currents are compared with high resolution surface current measurements obtained from two high frequency SeaSonde-type Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radars (CODAR). The wind forecast models used for the research are Harmonie cy361.3, running on 2.5 and 0.5km spatial grids for the low resolution and high resolution models respectively. The low-resolution model runs over an Irish domain on 540x500 grid points with 60 vertical levels and a 60s timestep and is driven by ECMWF boundary conditions. The nested high-resolution model uses 300x300 grid points on 60 vertical levels and a 12s timestep. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) is used for the hydrodynamic model. The Galway Bay model has ten vertical layers and is resolved spatially and temporally at 150m and 4 sec respectively. The hydrodynamic model is run for selected hindcast dates when wind fields were highly energetic. Spatially- and temporally-varying wind data is provided by offline coupling with the wind forecast models. Modelled surface currents show good correlation with CODAR observed currents and the resolution of the surface wind data is shown to be important for model accuracy.

A76-0634. 1/50 Scale Model Of The 80X120 Foot Wind Tunnel Model (Nfac) In The Test Section Of The 40X80 Foot Wind Tunnel.

NASA Image and Video Library

1996-06-27

(03/12/1976) 1/50 scale model of the 80x120 foot wind tunnel model (NFAC) in the test section of the 40x80 foot wind tunnel. Model mounted on a rotating ground board designed for this test, viewed from the west, oriented for North wind.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanz Rodrigo, Javier; Chávez Arroyo, Roberto Aurelio; Moriarty, Patrick

The increasing size of wind turbines, with rotors already spanning more than 150 m diameter and hub heights above 100 m, requires proper modeling of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) from the surface to the free atmosphere. Furthermore, large wind farm arrays create their own boundary layer structure with unique physics. This poses significant challenges to traditional wind engineering models that rely on surface-layer theories and engineering wind farm models to simulate the flow in and around wind farms. However, adopting an ABL approach offers the opportunity to better integrate wind farm design tools and meteorological models. The challenge ismore » how to build the bridge between atmospheric and wind engineering model communities and how to establish a comprehensive evaluation process that identifies relevant physical phenomena for wind energy applications with modeling and experimental requirements. A framework for model verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification is established to guide this process by a systematic evaluation of the modeling system at increasing levels of complexity. In terms of atmospheric physics, 'building the bridge' means developing models for the so-called 'terra incognita,' a term used to designate the turbulent scales that transition from mesoscale to microscale. This range of scales within atmospheric research deals with the transition from parameterized to resolved turbulence and the improvement of surface boundary-layer parameterizations. The coupling of meteorological and wind engineering flow models and the definition of a formal model evaluation methodology, is a strong area of research for the next generation of wind conditions assessment and wind farm and wind turbine design tools. Some fundamental challenges are identified in order to guide future research in this area.« less

Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

2017-11-01

This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception, which again is vital for defining risk acceptance. Moreover, risk communication should be seen as an opportunity to demonstrate trustworthiness and an open, responsible and caring attitude. It is important for the wind industry to avoid accidents: In Winterwind 2017 (Ronsten)[10], the importance for the wind power community to proactively take safety measures for passers-by and service personnel was emphasized: Establishing good practices and communication routines is key to avoid accidents. Visually attractive ways of presenting the risk of ice throw are recommended.

Hurricane hazards: a national threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Hurricanes bring destructive winds, storm surge, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes. A single storm can wreak havoc on coastal and inland communities and on natural areas over thousands of square miles. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma demonstrated the devastation that hurricanes can inflict and the importance of hurricane hazards research and preparedness. More than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coast, and this number is increasing. Many of these areas, especially the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, will be in the direct path of future hurricanes. Hawaii is also vulnerable to hurricanes.

Investigation of air transportation technology at Princeton University, 1992-1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stengel, Robert F.

1994-01-01

The Air Transportation Research Program at Princeton University proceeded along five avenues during the past year: (1) Flight Control System Robustness; (2) Microburst Hazards to Aircraft; (3) Wind Rotor Hazards to Aircraft; (4) Intelligent Aircraft/Airspace Systems; and (5) Aerospace Optical Communications. This research resulted in a number of publications, including theses, archival papers, and conference papers. An annotated bibliography of publications that appeared between June 1992 and June 1993 is included. The research that these papers describe was supported in whole or in part by the Joint University Program, including work that was completed prior to the reporting period.

An Updated Examination of Aviation Accidents Associated with Turbulence, Wind Shear and Thunderstorm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2014-01-01

One of the technical challenges within the Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies (AEST) Project of the Aviation Safety Program was to "improve and expand remote sensing and mitigation of hazardous atmospheric environments and phenomena"1. In 2012, the author performed an analysis comparing various characteristics of accidents associated with different types of atmospheric hazard environments2. This document reports an update to that analysis which was done in preparation for presenting these findings at the 2015 annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Specifically, an additional three years of data were available, and a time-trend analysis was added.

FPI observations of nighttime mesospheric and thermospheric winds in China and their comparisons with HWM07

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wei

2015-04-01

We analyzed the nighttime horizontal neutral winds in the middle atmosphere (˜87 and ˜98 km) and thermosphere (˜250 km) derived from a Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI), which was installed at Xinglong station (40.2◦ N, 117.4◦ E) in central China. The wind data covered the period from April 2010 to July 2012. We studied the annual, semiannual and terannual variations of the midnight winds at ˜87 km, ˜98 km and ˜250 km for the first time and compared them with Horizontal Wind Model 2007 (HWM07). Our results show the following: (1) at ˜ 87 km, both the observed and model zonal winds have similar phases in the annual and semiannual variations. However, the HWM07 amplitudes are much larger. (2) At ˜98 km, the model shows strong eastward wind in the summer solstice, resulting in a large annual variation, while the observed strongest component is semiannual. The observation and model midnight meridional winds agree well. Both are equatorward throughout the year and have small amplitudes in the annual and semiannual variations. (3) There are large discrepancies between the observed and HWM07 winds at ˜250 km. This discrepancy is largely due to the strong semiannual zonal wind in the model and the phase difference in the annual variation of the meridional wind. The FPI annual variation coincides with the results from Arecibo, which has similar geomagnetic latitude as Xinglong station. In General, the consistency of FPI winds with model winds is better at ˜87 and ˜98 km than that at ˜250 km. We also studied the seasonally and monthly averaged nighttime winds. The most salient features include the following: (1) the seasonally averaged zonal winds at ˜87 and ˜98 km typically have small variations throughout the night. (2) The model zonal and meridional nighttime wind variations are typically much larger than those of observations at ˜87 km and ˜98 km. (3) At ˜250 km, model zonal wind compares well with the observation in the winter. For spring and autumn, the model wind is more eastward before ˜ 03:00 LT but more westward after. The observed nighttime zonal and meridional winds on average are close to zero in the summer and autumn, which indicates a lack of strong stable tides. The consistency of FPI zonal wind with model wind at ˜250 km is better than the meridional wind.

Effects of incoming surface wind conditions on the wake characteristics and dynamic wind loads acting on a wind turbine model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Wei; Ozbay, Ahmet; Hu, Hui

2014-12-01

An experimental investigation was conducted to examine the effects of incoming surface wind conditions on the wake characteristics and dynamic wind loads acting on a wind turbine model. The experimental study was performed in a large-scale wind tunnel with a scaled three-blade Horizontal Axial Wind Turbine model placed in two different types of Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) winds with distinct mean and turbulence characteristics. In addition to measuring dynamic wind loads acting on the model turbine by using a force-moment sensor, a high-resolution Particle Image Velocimetry system was used to achieve detailed flow field measurements to characterize the turbulent wake flows behind the model turbine. The measurement results reveal clearly that the discrepancies in the incoming surface winds would affect the wake characteristics and dynamic wind loads acting on the model turbine dramatically. The dynamic wind loads acting on the model turbine were found to fluctuate much more significantly, thereby, much larger fatigue loads, for the case with the wind turbine model sited in the incoming ABL wind with higher turbulence intensity levels. The turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stress levels in the wake behind the model turbine were also found to be significantly higher for the high turbulence inflow case, in comparison to those of the low turbulence inflow case. The flow characteristics in the turbine wake were found to be dominated by the formation, shedding, and breakdown of various unsteady wake vortices. In comparison with the case with relatively low turbulence intensities in the incoming ABL wind, much more turbulent and randomly shedding, faster dissipation, and earlier breakdown of the wake vortices were observed for the high turbulence inflow case, which would promote the vertical transport of kinetic energy by entraining more high-speed airflow from above to re-charge the wake flow and result in a much faster recovery of the velocity deficits in the turbine wake.

Simulation for Grid Connected Wind Turbines with Fluctuating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Ying; Fu, Yang; Wei, Shurong

This paper establishes the whole dynamic model of wind turbine generator system which contains the wind speed model and DFIG wind turbines model .A simulation sample based on the mathematical models is built by using MATLAB in this paper. Research are did on the performance characteristics of doubly-fed wind generators (DFIG) which connected to power grid with three-phase ground fault and the disturbance by gust and mixed wind. The capacity of the wind farm is 9MW which consists of doubly-fed wind generators (DFIG). Simulation results demonstrate that the three-phase ground fault occurs on grid side runs less affected on the stability of doubly-fed wind generators. However, as a power source, fluctuations of the wind speed will run a large impact on stability of double-fed wind generators. The results also show that if the two disturbances occur in the meantime, the situation will be very serious.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finley, Cathy

2014-04-30

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements inmore » wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.« less

Modelling the spatial distribution of five natural hazards in the context of the WHO/EMRO Atlas of Disaster Risk as a step towards the reduction of the health impact related to disasters

PubMed Central

El Morjani, Zine El Abidine; Ebener, Steeve; Boos, John; Abdel Ghaffar, Eman; Musani, Altaf

2007-01-01

Background Reducing the potential for large scale loss of life, large numbers of casualties, and widespread displacement of populations that can result from natural disasters is a difficult challenge for the individuals, communities and governments that need to respond to such events. While it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to predict the occurrence of most natural hazards; it is possible to take action before emergency events happen to plan for their occurrence when possible and to mitigate their potential effects. In this context, an Atlas of Disaster Risk is under development for the 21 Member States that constitute the World Health Organization's (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Region and the West Bank and Gaza Strip territory. Methods and Results This paper describes the Geographic Information System (GIS) based methods that have been used in order to create the first volume of the Atlas which looks at the spatial distribution of 5 natural hazards (flood, landslide, wind speed, heat and seismic hazard). It also presents the results obtained through the application of these methods on a set of countries part of the EM Region before illustrating how this type of information can be aggregated for decision making. Discussion and Conclusion The methods presented in this paper aim at providing a new set of tools for GIS practitioners to refine their analytical capabilities when examining natural hazards, and at the same time allowing users to create more specific and meaningful local analyses. The maps resulting from the application of these methods provides decision makers with information to strengthen their disaster management capacity. It also represents the basis for the reflection that needs to take place regarding populations' vulnerability towards natural hazards from a health perspective. PMID:17343733

Indexed semi-Markov process for wind speed modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

2012-04-01

The increasing interest in renewable energy leads scientific research to find a better way to recover most of the available energy. Particularly, the maximum energy recoverable from wind is equal to 59.3% of that available (Betz law) at a specific pitch angle and when the ratio between the wind speed in output and in input is equal to 1/3. The pitch angle is the angle formed between the airfoil of the blade of the wind turbine and the wind direction. Old turbine and a lot of that actually marketed, in fact, have always the same invariant geometry of the airfoil. This causes that wind turbines will work with an efficiency that is lower than 59.3%. New generation wind turbines, instead, have a system to variate the pitch angle by rotating the blades. This system able the wind turbines to recover, at different wind speed, always the maximum energy, working in Betz limit at different speed ratios. A powerful system control of the pitch angle allows the wind turbine to recover better the energy in transient regime. A good stochastic model for wind speed is then needed to help both the optimization of turbine design and to assist the system control to predict the value of the wind speed to positioning the blades quickly and correctly. The possibility to have synthetic data of wind speed is a powerful instrument to assist designer to verify the structures of the wind turbines or to estimate the energy recoverable from a specific site. To generate synthetic data, Markov chains of first or higher order are often used [1,2,3]. In particular in [1] is presented a comparison between a first-order Markov chain and a second-order Markov chain. A similar work, but only for the first-order Markov chain, is conduced by [2], presenting the probability transition matrix and comparing the energy spectral density and autocorrelation of real and synthetic wind speed data. A tentative to modeling and to join speed and direction of wind is presented in [3], by using two models, first-order Markov chain with different number of states, and Weibull distribution. All this model use Markov chains to generate synthetic wind speed time series but the search for a better model is still open. Approaching this issue, we applied new models which are generalization of Markov models. More precisely we applied semi-Markov models to generate synthetic wind speed time series. In a previous work we proposed different semi-Markov models, showing their ability to reproduce the autocorrelation structures of wind speed data. In that paper we showed also that the autocorrelation is higher with respect to the Markov model. Unfortunately this autocorrelation was still too small compared to the empirical one. In order to overcome the problem of low autocorrelation, in this paper we propose an indexed semi-Markov model. More precisely we assume that wind speed is described by a discrete time homogeneous semi-Markov process. We introduce a memory index which takes into account the periods of different wind activities. With this model the statistical characteristics of wind speed are faithfully reproduced. The wind is a very unstable phenomenon characterized by a sequence of lulls and sustained speeds, and a good wind generator must be able to reproduce such sequences. To check the validity of the predictive semi-Markovian model, the persistence of synthetic winds were calculated, then averaged and computed. The model is used to generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations and the time lagged autocorrelation is used to compare statistical properties of the proposed models with those of real data and also with a time series generated though a simple Markov chain. [1] A. Shamshad, M.A. Bawadi, W.M.W. Wan Hussin, T.A. Majid, S.A.M. Sanusi, First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series, Energy 30 (2005) 693-708. [2] H. Nfaoui, H. Essiarab, A.A.M. Sayigh, A stochastic Markov chain model for simulating wind speed time series at Tangiers, Morocco, Renewable Energy 29 (2004) 1407-1418. [3] F. Youcef Ettoumi, H. Sauvageot, A.-E.-H. Adane, Statistical bivariate modeling of wind using first-order Markov chain and Weibull distribution, Renewable Energy 28 (2003) 1787-1802.

Short-term Wind Forecasting at Wind Farms using WRF-LES and Actuator Disk Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkil, Gokhan

2017-04-01

Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farm on a mountainous terrain using WRF-LES. Multi-scale simulations are also performed using different PBL parameterizations. Turbines are parameterized using Actuator Disc Model. LES models improved the forecasts. Statistical error analysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed. Complex topography of the study area affects model performance, especially the accuracy of wind forecasts were poor for cross valley-mountain flows. By means of LES, we gain new knowledge about the sources of spatial and temporal variability of wind fluctuations such as the configuration of wind turbines.

Cosmic-ray transport in the heliosphere: A global perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florinski, Vladimir

2013-02-01

Earth is shielded from the hazardous galactic radiation in the form or cosmic ray ions by the outwardly flow of the solar wind plasma and by the geomagnetic field. Understanding the effects of the global structure of the heliosphere on the transport of energetic charged particles remains an important challenge in space physics. The expanding bubble of the supersonic solar wind cools the populations of GeV ions that penetrate deeply into the interplanetary space. Beyond the solar wind lies the heliosheath that is believed to act as a long-term storage reservoir for the cosmic rays. The heliosheath and its magnetic field topology play an important role in modulating cosmic rays at large heliocentric distances. Understanding this role is crucial for interpreting the the puzzling Voyager spacecraft observations near the edge of the solar system.

Wind flow in an urban environment.

PubMed

Dutt, A J

1991-10-01

The wind environment at ground leven in built-up areas is influenced by the extremely complex interaction amongst incident wind, mean vertical velocity gradient, turbulence and the shapes, sizes and layouts of building. Random layout of buildings could generate zones of overspeed and vortices in the connecting passage way between buildings, terraces, opensided shelters, courtyards, which could potentially cause unpleasantness, hazard from resuspended particulates, and airborne rain penetration into the buildings. The paper presents the results of two case studies comprising field measurements made within the Kent Ridge Campus, National University of Singapore, using DANTEC 54N10 Multichannel Flow Analyser and Probes. Results are presented in terms of non-dimensional windspeed coefficients. It is concluded that there is significant increase in windspeed due to channel and venturi effects. This information provides useful guidelines for building plans and layouts to the architects and engineers.

Spatio-temporal modelling of wind speed variations and extremes in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rychlik, Igor; Mao, Wengang

2018-02-01

The wind speed variability in the North Atlantic has been successfully modelled using a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. However, this type of model does not correctly describe the extreme wind speeds attributed to tropical storms and hurricanes. In this study, the transformed Gaussian model is further developed to include the occurrence of severe storms. In this new model, random components are added to the transformed Gaussian field to model rare events with extreme wind speeds. The resulting random field is locally stationary and homogeneous. The localized dependence structure is described by time- and space-dependent parameters. The parameters have a natural physical interpretation. To exemplify its application, the model is fitted to the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. The model is applied to compute long-term wind speed distributions and return values, e.g., 100- or 1000-year extreme wind speeds, and to simulate random wind speed time series at a fixed location or spatio-temporal wind fields around that location.

Model for wind resource analysis and for wind farm planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozsavolgyi, K.

2008-12-01

Due to the ever increasing anthropogenic environmental pollution and the worldwide energy demand, the research and exploitation of environment-friendly renewable energy sources like wind, solar, geothermal, biomass become more and more important. During the last decade wind energy utilization has developed dynamically with big steps. Over just the past seven years, annual worldwide growth in installed wind capacity is near 30 %. Over 94 000 MW installed currently all over the world. Besides important economic incentives, the most extensive and most accurate scientific results are required in order to provide beneficial help for regional planning of wind farms to find appropriate sites for optimal exploitation of this renewable energy source. This research is on the spatial allocation of possible wind energy usage for wind farms. In order to carry this out a new model (CMPAM = Complex Multifactoral Polygenetic Adaptive Model) is being developed, which basically is a wind climate-oriented system, but other kind of factors are also considered. With this model those areas and terrains can be located where construction of large wind farms would be reasonable under the given conditions. This model consist of different sub- modules such as wind field modeling sub module (CMPAM/W) that is in high focus in this model development procedure. The wind field modeling core of CMPAM is mainly based on sGs (sequential Gaussian simulation) hence geostatistics, but atmospheric physics and GIS are used as well. For the application developed for the test area (Hungary) WAsP visualization results were used from 10 m height as input data. This data was geocorrected (GIS geometric correction) before it was used for further calculations. Using optimized variography and sequential Gaussian simulation, results were applied for the test area (Hungary) at different heights. Simulation results were produced and summarized for different heights. Furthermore an exponential regressive function describing the vertical wind profile was also established. The following altitudes were examined: 10 m, 30 m, 60 m, 80 m, 100 m, 120 m and 140 m. By the help of the complex analyses of CMPAM, where not just mere wind climatic and meteorological factors are considered, detailed results have been produced to 100 m height. Results at this altitude were analyzed and explained in a more detailed way because this altitude proved to be the first height that can ensure adequate wind speed for larger wind farms for wind energy exploitation in the test area. Keywords: wind site assessment, wind field modeling, complex modeling for planning of wind farm, sequential Gaussian simulation, GIS, wind profile

Analysis of a Meteorological Database for London Heathrow in the Context of Wake Vortex Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agnew, P.; Ogden, D. J.; Hoad, D. J.

2003-04-01

A database of meteorological parameters collected by aircraft arriving at LHR has recently been compiled. We have used the recorded variation of temperature and wind with height to deduce the 'wake vortex behaviour class' (WVBC) along the glide slope, as experienced by each flight. The integrated state of the glide slope has been investigated, allowing us to estimate the proportion of time for which the wake vortex threat is reduced, due to either rapid decay or transport off the glide slope. A numerical weather prediction model was used to forecast the meteorological parameters for periods coinciding with the aircraft data. This allowed us to perform a comparison of forecast WVBC with those deduced from the aircraft measurements.

High-resolution grids of hourly meteorological variables for Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krähenmann, S.; Walter, A.; Brienen, S.; Imbery, F.; Matzarakis, A.

2018-02-01

We present a 1-km2 gridded German dataset of hourly surface climate variables covering the period 1995 to 2012. The dataset comprises 12 variables including temperature, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, global and direct shortwave radiation, down- and up-welling longwave radiation, sea level pressure, relative humidity and vapour pressure. This dataset was constructed statistically from station data, satellite observations and model data. It is outstanding in terms of spatial and temporal resolution and in the number of climate variables. For each variable, we employed the most suitable gridding method and combined the best of several information sources, including station records, satellite-derived data and data from a regional climate model. A module to estimate urban heat island intensity was integrated for air and dew point temperature. Owing to the low density of available synop stations, the gridded dataset does not capture all variations that may occur at a resolution of 1 km2. This applies to areas of complex terrain (all the variables), and in particular to wind speed and the radiation parameters. To achieve maximum precision, we used all observational information when it was available. This, however, leads to inhomogeneities in station network density and affects the long-term consistency of the dataset. A first climate analysis for Germany was conducted. The Rhine River Valley, for example, exhibited more than 100 summer days in 2003, whereas in 1996, the number was low everywhere in Germany. The dataset is useful for applications in various climate-related studies, hazard management and for solar or wind energy applications and it is available via doi: 10.5676/DWD_CDC/TRY_Basis_v001.

Review of Recent Development of Dynamic Wind Farm Equivalent Models Based on Big Data Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chenggen; Zhou, Qian; Han, Mingzhe; Lv, Zhan’ao; Hou, Xiao; Zhao, Haoran; Bu, Jing

2018-04-01

Recently, the big data mining method has been applied in dynamic wind farm equivalent modeling. In this paper, its recent development with present research both domestic and overseas is reviewed. Firstly, the studies of wind speed prediction, equivalence and its distribution in the wind farm are concluded. Secondly, two typical approaches used in the big data mining method is introduced, respectively. For single wind turbine equivalent modeling, it focuses on how to choose and identify equivalent parameters. For multiple wind turbine equivalent modeling, the following three aspects are concentrated, i.e. aggregation of different wind turbine clusters, the parameters in the same cluster, and equivalence of collector system. Thirdly, an outlook on the development of dynamic wind farm equivalent models in the future is discussed.

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Brinkman, Greg; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator - New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-minmore » compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.« less

Developing Daily Quantitative Damage Estimates From Geospatial Layers To Support Post Event Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, B. K.; Wei, L. H.; Connor, T. C.

2014-12-01

With the growth of natural hazard data available in near real-time it is increasingly feasible to deliver damage estimates caused by natural disasters. These estimates can be used in disaster management setting or by commercial entities to optimize the deployment of resources and/or routing of goods and materials. This work outlines an end-to-end, modular process to generate estimates of damage caused by severe weather. The processing stream consists of five generic components: 1) Hazard modules that provide quantitate data layers for each peril. 2) Standardized methods to map the hazard data to an exposure layer based on atomic geospatial blocks. 3) Peril-specific damage functions that compute damage metrics at the atomic geospatial block level. 4) Standardized data aggregators, which map damage to user-specific geometries. 5) Data dissemination modules, which provide resulting damage estimates in a variety of output forms. This presentation provides a description of this generic tool set, and an illustrated example using HWRF-based hazard data for Hurricane Arthur (2014). In this example, the Python-based real-time processing ingests GRIB2 output from the HWRF numerical model, dynamically downscales it in conjunctions with a land cover database using a multiprocessing pool, and a just-in-time compiler (JIT). The resulting wind fields are contoured, and ingested into a PostGIS database using OGR. Finally, the damage estimates are calculated at the atomic block level and aggregated to user-defined regions using PostgreSQL queries to construct application specific tabular and graphics output.

Lateral blasts at Mount St. Helens and hazard zonation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandell, D.R.; Hoblitt, R.P.

1986-01-01

Lateral blasts at andesitic and dacitic volcanoes can produce a variety of direct hazards, including ballistic projectiles which can be thrown to distances of at least 10 km and pyroclastic density flows which can travel at high speed to distances of more than 30 km. Indirect effect that may accompany such explosions include wind-borne ash, pyroclastic flows formed by the remobilization of rock debris thrown onto sloping ground, and lahars. Two lateral blasts occurred at a lava dome on the north flank of Mount St. Helens about 1200 years ago; the more energetic of these threw rock debris northeastward across a sector of about 30?? to a distance of at least 10 km. The ballistic debris fell onto an area estimated to be 50 km2, and wind-transported ash and lapilli derived from the lateral-blast cloud fell on an additional lobate area of at least 200 km2. In contrast, the vastly larger lateral blast of May 18, 1980, created a devastating pyroclastic density flow that covered a sector of as much as 180??, reached a maximum distance of 28 km, and within a few minutes directly affected an area of about 550 km2. The May 18 lateral blast resulted from the sudden, landslide-induced depressurization of a dacite cryptodome and the hydrothermal system that surrounded it within the volcano. We propose that lateral-blast hazard assessments for lava domes include an adjoining hazard zone with a radius of at least 10 km. Although a lateral blast can occur on any side of a dome, the sector directly affected by any one blast probably will be less than 180??. Nevertheless, a circular hazard zone centered on the dome is suggested because of the difficulty of predicting the direction of a lateral blast. For the purpose of long-term land-use planning, a hazard assessment for lateral blasts caused by explosions of magma bodies or pressurized hydrothermal systems within a symmetrical volcano could designate a circular potential hazard area with a radius of 35 km centered on the volcano. For short-term hazard assessments, if seismicity and deformation indicate that magma is moving toward the flank of a volcano, it should be recognized that a landslide could lead to the sudden unloading of a magmatic or hydrothermal system and thereby cause a catastrophic lateral blast. A hazard assessment should assume that a lateral blast could directly affect an area at least 180?? wide to a distance of 35 km from the site of the explosion, irrespective of topography. ?? 1986 Springer-Verlag.

Minimum Energy Routing through Interactive Techniques (MERIT) modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wylie, Donald P.

1988-01-01

The MERIT program is designed to demonstrate the feasibility of fuel savings by airlines through improved route selection using wind observations from their own fleet. After a discussion of weather and aircraft data, manually correcting wind fields, automatic corrections to wind fields, and short-range prediction models, it is concluded that improvements in wind information are possible if a system is developed for analyzing wind observations and correcting the forecasts made by the major models. One data handling system, McIDAS, can easily collect and display wind observations and model forecasts. Changing the wind forecasts beyond the time of the most recent observations is more difficult; an Australian Mesoscale Model was tested with promising but not definitive results.

Numerical investigation of interactions between marine atmospheric boundary layer and offshore wind farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Pin; Chen, Wenli; Li, Hui; Shen, Lian

2017-11-01

In recent studies, Yang, Meneveau & Shen (Physics of Fluids, 2014; Renewable Energy, 2014) developed a hybrid numerical framework for simulation of offshore wind farm. The framework consists of simulation of nonlinear surface waves using a high-order spectral method, large-eddy simulation of wind turbulence on a wave-surface-fitted curvilinear grid, and an actuator disk model for wind turbines. In the present study, several more precise wind turbine models, including the actuator line model, actuator disk model with rotation, and nacelle model, are introduced into the computation. Besides offshore wind turbines on fixed piles, the new computational framework has the capability to investigate the interaction among wind, waves, and floating wind turbines. In this study, onshore, offshore fixed pile, and offshore floating wind farms are compared in terms of flow field statistics and wind turbine power extraction rate. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from China Scholarship Council (No. 201606120186) and the Institute on the Environment of University of Minnesota.

Coastal hazards in a changing world: projecting and communicating future coastal flood risk at the local-scale using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Wood, Nathan

2017-04-01

The risk of coastal flooding will increase for many low-lying coastal regions as predominant contributions to flooding, including sea level, storm surge, wave setup, and storm-related fluvial discharge, are altered with climate change. Community leaders and local governments therefore look to science to provide insight into how climate change may affect their areas. Many studies of future coastal flooding vulnerability consider sea level and tides, but ignore other important factors that elevate flood levels during storm events, such as waves, surge, and discharge. Here we present a modelling approach that considers a broad range of relevant processes contributing to elevated storm water levels for open coast and embayment settings along the U.S. West Coast. Additionally, we present online tools for communicating community-relevant projected vulnerabilities. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling system developed to predict coastal flooding due to both sea-level rise (SLR) and plausible 21st century storms for active-margin settings like the U.S. West Coast. CoSMoS applies a predominantly deterministic framework of multi-scale models encompassing large geographic scales (100s to 1000s of kilometers) to small-scale features (10s to 1000s of meters), resulting in flood extents that can be projected at a local resolution (2 meters). In the latest iteration of CoSMoS applied to Southern California, U.S., efforts were made to incorporate water level fluctuations in response to regional storm impacts, locally wind-generated waves, coastal river discharge, and decadal-scale shoreline and cliff changes. Coastal hazard projections are available in a user-friendly web-based tool (www.prbo.org/ocof), where users can view variations in flood extent, maximum flood depth, current speeds, and wave heights in response to a range of potential SLR and storm combinations, providing direct support to adaptation and management decisions. In order to capture the societal aspect of the hazard, projections are combined with socioeconomic exposure to produce clear, actionable information (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/hera/); this integrated approach to hazard displays provides an example of how to effectively translate complex climate impacts projections into simple, societally-relevant information.

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

2017-09-01

In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

Wind tunnel measurements of the power output variability and unsteady loading in a micro wind farm model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan

2015-11-01

To optimize wind farm layouts for a maximum power output and wind turbine lifetime, mean power output measurements in wind tunnel studies are not sufficient. Instead, detailed temporal information about the power output and unsteady loading from every single wind turbine in the wind farm is needed. A very small porous disc model with a realistic thrust coefficient of 0.75 - 0.85, was designed. The model is instrumented with a strain gage, allowing measurements of the thrust force, incoming velocity and power output with a frequency response up to the natural frequency of the model. This is shown by reproducing the -5/3 spectrum from the incoming flow. Thanks to its small size and compact instrumentation, the model allows wind tunnel studies of large wind turbine arrays with detailed temporal information from every wind turbine. Translating to field conditions with a length-scale ratio of 1:3,000 the frequencies studied from the data reach from 10-4 Hz up to about 6 .10-2 Hz. The model's capabilities are demonstrated with a large wind farm measurement consisting of close to 100 instrumented models. A high correlation is found between the power outputs of stream wise aligned wind turbines, which is in good agreement with results from prior LES simulations. Work supported by ERC (ActiveWindFarms, grant no. 306471) and by NSF (grants CBET-113380 and IIA-1243482, the WINDINSPIRE project).

A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Vincent Y. S.; Arhonditsis, George B.; Sills, David M. L.; Gough, William A.; Auld, Heather

2015-03-01

Tornadoes represent one of nature’s most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America.

PubMed

Cheng, Vincent Y S; Arhonditsis, George B; Sills, David M L; Gough, William A; Auld, Heather

2015-03-25

Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

Blowing Dust on Highway Safety: Characterizing and Modeling of Dust Emission Hot Spots in the Southern Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackwell, J., III; Li, J. J.; Kandakji, T.; Collins, J. D., Jr.; Lee, J.; Gill, T. E.

2016-12-01

Blowing dust and highway safety have become increasingly prevalent problems concerning human safety and welfare. Two factors precipitate wind-blown dust accidents: sudden loss of visibility, and loss of traction due to soil particles on the road surface. The project, using remote sensing and in situ measurements of surface and subsurface characteristics, will identify the location of dust emission "hotspots" and associated geomorphic features within the southwest region and panhandle (New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma), measure the threshold shear velocity and vegetative cover and model the results. The results of this study will provide critical information for land managers, policy makers, and highway authorities when making timely and informed potentially life-saving decisions and modifications here, in the southwest region and panhandle, as well as, anywhere else in the world where blowing dust is a hazard to highway safety.

Differences in simulated fire spread over Askervein Hill using two advanced wind models and a traditional uniform wind field

Treesearch

Jason Forthofer; Bret Butler

2007-01-01

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model and a mass-consistent model were used to simulate winds on simulated fire spread over a simple, low hill. The results suggest that the CFD wind field could significantly change simulated fire spread compared to traditional uniform winds. The CFD fire spread case may match reality better because the winds used in the fire...

Assessment of Wind Resource in the Palk Strait using Different Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, T.; Khan, F.; Baidya Roy, S.; Miller, L.

2017-12-01

The Government of India has proposed a target of 60 GW in grid power from the wind by the year 2022. The Palk Strait is one of the potential offshore wind power generation sites in India. It is a 65-135 km wide and 135 km long channel lying between the south eastern tip of India and northern Sri Lanka. The complex terrain bounding the two sides of the strait leads to enhanced wind speed and reduced variability in the wind direction. Here, we compare 3 distinct methodologies for estimating the generation rates for a hypothetical offshore wind farm array located in the strait. The methodologies include: 1) traditional wind power density model that ignores the effect of turbine interactions on generation rates; 2) the PARK wake model; and 3) a high resolution weather model (WRF) with a wind turbine parameterization. Using the WRF model as our baseline, we find that the simple model overestimates generation by an order-of-magnitude, while the wake model underestimates generation rates by about 5%. The reason for these differences relates to the influence of wind turbines on the atmospheric flow, wherein, the WRF model is able to capture the effect of both the complex terrain and wind turbine atmospheric boundary layer interactions. Lastly, a model evaluation is conducted which shows that 10m wind speeds and directions from WRF are comparable with the satellite data. Hence, we conclude from the study that each of these methodologies may have merit, but should a wind farm is deployed in such a complex terrain, we expect the WRF method to give better estimates of wind resource assessment capturing the physical processes emerging due to the interactions between offshore wind farm and the surrounding terrain.

Meteorology Meets Engineering: An Interdisciplinary STEM Module for Middle and Early Secondary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barrett, Bradford S.; Moran, Angela L.; Woods, John E.

2014-01-01

Background: Given the continued need to educate the public on both the meteorological and engineering hazards posed by the severe winds of a tornado, an interdisciplinary science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) module designed by the faculty from the Oceanography and Mechanical Engineering Departments at the United States Naval…

78 FR 67383 - Kansas; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-12

..., straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding during the period of July 22 to August 16, 2013, is of... Hazard Mitigation will be limited to 75 percent of the total eligible costs. Federal funds provided under the Stafford Act for Public Assistance also will be limited to 75 percent of the total eligible costs...

STEM High School Teaching Enhancement through Collaborative Engineering Research on Extreme Winds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, Danielle; Yazdani, Nur; Manzur, Tanvir

2013-01-01

The Research Experiences for Teachers (RET) program on Hazard Mitigation at the University of Texas at Arlington (UT Arlington) involved area high school STEM teachers in engineering research with faculty and graduate students. The primary objective of the project was to train participating teachers in inquiry based research learning, research…

Evaluating the vulnerability of Maine forests to wind damage

Treesearch

Thomas E. Perry; Jeremy S. Wilson

2010-01-01

Numerous factors, some of which cannot be controlled, are continually interacting with the forest resource, introducing risk to management, and making consistent predictable management outcomes uncertain. Included in these factors are threats or hazards such as windstorms and wildfire. Factors influencing the probability (risk) of windthrow or windsnap occurring can be...

Examination of Microburst Development in Colorado Thunderstorm for the 5 August 1982 Case

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

reaches the surface. This low-altitude wind shear hazard was tragically highlighted 2 with the crash of Eastern Airlines Flight 66 on approach to JFK ... Airport in New York on 24 June 1975. The crash was caused by an intense small-scale downdraft descending to the surface and spreading out

Linking vegetation patterns to potential smoke production and fire hazard

Treesearch

Roger D. Ottmar; Ernesto Alvarado

2004-01-01

During the past 80 years, various disturbances (such as wildfire and wind events) and management actions (including fire exclusion, logging, and domestic livestock grazing) have significantly modified the composition and structure of forests and ranges across the western United States. The resulting fuel loadings directly influence potential smoke production from...

Safety and maintenance engineering: A compilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A compilation is presented for the dissemination of information on technological developments which have potential utility outside the aerospace and nuclear communities. Safety of personnel engaged in the handling of hazardous materials and equipment, protection of equipment from fire, high wind, or careless handling by personnel, and techniques for the maintenance of operating equipment are reported.

Probabilistic tephra hazard maps for the Neapolitan area: Quantitative volcanological study of Campi Flegrei eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L.; Troise, C.; Panizza, A.; de Natale, G.

2008-07-01

Tephra fall is a relevant hazard of Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), due to the high vulnerability of Naples metropolitan area to such an event. Here, tephra derive from magmatic as well as phreatomagmatic activity. On the basis of both new and literature data on known, past eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), grain size parameters, velocity at the vent, column heights and erupted mass), and factors controlling tephra dispersion (wind velocity and direction), 2D numerical simulations of fallout dispersion and deposition have been performed for a large number of case events. A bayesian inversion has been applied to retrieve the best values of critical parameters (e.g., vertical mass distribution, diffusion coefficients, velocity at the vent), not directly inferable by volcanological study. Simulations are run in parallel on multiple processors to allow a fully probabilistic analysis, on a very large catalogue preserving the statistical proprieties of past eruptive history. Using simulation results, hazard maps have been computed for different scenarios: upper limit scenario (worst-expected scenario), eruption-range scenario, and whole-eruption scenario. Results indicate that although high hazard characterizes the Campi Flegrei caldera, the territory to the east of the caldera center, including the whole district of Naples, is exposed to high hazard values due to the dominant westerly winds. Consistently with the stratigraphic evidence of nature of past eruptions, our numerical simulations reveal that even in the case of a subplinian eruption (VEI = 3), Naples is exposed to tephra fall thicknesses of some decimeters, thereby exceeding the critical limit for roof collapse. Because of the total number of people living in Campi Flegrei and the city of Naples (ca. two million of inhabitants), the tephra fallout risk related to a plinian eruption of Campi Flegrei largely matches or exceeds the risk related to a similar eruption at Vesuvius.

Hazard Detection Analysis for a Forward-Looking Interferometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Leanne; Gimmestad, Gary; Herkert, Ralph; Smith, William L.; Kireev, Stanislav; Schaffner, Philip R.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Cornman, Larry B.; Sharman, Robert; Weekley, Andrew;

Comments on "Modified wind chill temperatures determined by a whole body thermoregulation model and human-based convective coefficients" by Ben Shabat, Shitzer and Fiala (2013) and "Facial convective heat exchange coefficients in cold and windy environments estimated from human experiments" by Ben Shabat and Shitzer (2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osczevski, Randall J.

2014-08-01

Ben Shabat et al. (Int J Biometeorol 56(4):639-51, 2013) present revised charts for wind chill equivalent temperatures (WCET) and facial skin temperatures (FST) that differ significantly from currently accepted charts. They credit these differences to their more sophisticated calculation model and to the human-based equation that it used for finding the convective heat transfer coefficient (Ben Shabat and Shitzer, Int J Biometeorol 56:639-651, 2012). Because a version of the simple model that was used to create the current charts accurately reproduces their results when it uses the human-based equation, the differences that they found must be entirely due to this equation. In deriving it, Ben Shabat and Shitzer assumed that all of the heat transfer from the surface of their cylindrical model was due to forced convection alone. Because several modes of heat transfer were occurring in the human experiments they were attempting to simulate, notably radiation, their coefficients are actually total external heat transfer coefficients, not purely convective ones, as the calculation models assume. Data from the one human experiment that used heat flux sensors supports this conclusion and exposes the hazard of using a numerical model with several adjustable parameters that cannot be measured. Because the human-based equation is faulty, the values in the proposed charts are not correct. The equation that Ben Shabat et al. (Int J Biometeorol 56(4):639-51, 2013) propose to calculate WCET should not be used.

Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

2015-02-01

The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

Ionospheric manifestations of earthquakes and tsunamis in a dynamic atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godin, Oleg A.; Zabotin, Nikolay A.; Zabotina, Liudmila

2015-04-01

Observations of the ionosphere provide a new, promising modality for characterizing large-scale physical processes that occur on land and in the ocean. There is a large and rapidly growing body of evidence that a number of natural hazards, including large earthquakes, strong tsunamis, and powerful tornadoes, have pronounced ionospheric manifestations, which are reliably detected by ground-based and satellite-borne instruments. As the focus shifts from detecting the ionospheric features associated with the natural hazards to characterizing the hazards for the purposes of improving early warning systems and contributing to disaster recovery, it becomes imperative to relate quantitatively characteristics of the observed ionospheric disturbances and the underlying natural hazard. The relation between perturbations at the ground level and their ionospheric manifestations is strongly affected by parameters of the intervening atmosphere. In this paper, we employ the ray theory to model propagation of acoustic-gravity waves in three-dimensionally inhomogeneous atmosphere. Huygens' wavefront-tracing and Hamiltonian ray-tracing algorithms are used to simulate propagation of body waves from an earthquake hypocenter through the earth's crust and ocean to the upper atmosphere. We quantify the influence of temperature stratification and winds, including their seasonal variability, and air viscosity and thermal conductivity on the geometry and amplitude of ionospheric disturbances that are generated by seismic surface waves and tsunamis. Modeling results are verified by comparing observations of the velocity fluctuations at altitudes of 150-160 km by a coastal Dynasonde HF radar system with theoretical predictions of ionospheric manifestations of background infragravity waves in the ocean. Dynasonde radar systems are shown to be a promising means for monitoring acoustic-gravity wave activity and observing ionospheric perturbations due to earthquakes and tsunamis. We will discuss the effects of the background ionospheric disturbances and uncertainty in atmospheric parameters on the feasibility and accuracy of retrieval of the open-ocean tsunami heights from observations of the ionosphere.

Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

2006-06-01

Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

The dune effect on sand-transporting winds on Mars.

PubMed

Jackson, Derek W T; Bourke, Mary C; Smyth, Thomas A G

2015-11-05

Wind on Mars is a significant agent of contemporary surface change, yet the absence of in situ meteorological data hampers the understanding of surface-atmospheric interactions. Airflow models at length scales relevant to landform size now enable examination of conditions that might activate even small-scale bedforms (ripples) under certain contemporary wind regimes. Ripples have the potential to be used as modern 'wind vanes' on Mars. Here we use 3D airflow modelling to demonstrate that local dune topography exerts a strong influence on wind speed and direction and that ripple movement likely reflects steered wind direction for certain dune ridge shapes. The poor correlation of dune orientation with effective sand-transporting winds suggests that large dunes may not be mobile under modelled wind scenarios. This work highlights the need to first model winds at high resolution before inferring regional wind patterns from ripple movement or dune orientations on the surface of Mars today.

The dune effect on sand-transporting winds on Mars

PubMed Central

Jackson, Derek W. T.; Bourke, Mary C; Smyth, Thomas A. G.

2015-01-01

Wind on Mars is a significant agent of contemporary surface change, yet the absence of in situ meteorological data hampers the understanding of surface–atmospheric interactions. Airflow models at length scales relevant to landform size now enable examination of conditions that might activate even small-scale bedforms (ripples) under certain contemporary wind regimes. Ripples have the potential to be used as modern ‘wind vanes' on Mars. Here we use 3D airflow modelling to demonstrate that local dune topography exerts a strong influence on wind speed and direction and that ripple movement likely reflects steered wind direction for certain dune ridge shapes. The poor correlation of dune orientation with effective sand-transporting winds suggests that large dunes may not be mobile under modelled wind scenarios. This work highlights the need to first model winds at high resolution before inferring regional wind patterns from ripple movement or dune orientations on the surface of Mars today. PMID:26537669

Analytical Model for Mean Flow and Fluxes of Momentum and Energy in Very Large Wind Farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markfort, Corey D.; Zhang, Wei; Porté-Agel, Fernando

2018-01-01

As wind-turbine arrays continue to be installed and the array size continues to grow, there is an increasing need to represent very large wind-turbine arrays in numerical weather prediction models, for wind-farm optimization, and for environmental assessment. We propose a simple analytical model for boundary-layer flow in fully-developed wind-turbine arrays, based on the concept of sparsely-obstructed shear flows. In describing the vertical distribution of the mean wind speed and shear stress within wind farms, our model estimates the mean kinetic energy harvested from the atmospheric boundary layer, and determines the partitioning between the wind power captured by the wind turbines and that absorbed by the underlying land or water. A length scale based on the turbine geometry, spacing, and performance characteristics, is able to estimate the asymptotic limit for the fully-developed flow through wind-turbine arrays, and thereby determine if the wind-farm flow is fully developed for very large turbine arrays. Our model is validated using data collected in controlled wind-tunnel experiments, and its usefulness for the prediction of wind-farm performance and optimization of turbine-array spacing are described. Our model may also be useful for assessing the extent to which the extraction of wind power affects the land-atmosphere coupling or air-water exchange of momentum, with implications for the transport of heat, moisture, trace gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and ecologically important oxygen.

Hazardous substances releases associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in industrial settings, Louisiana and Texas.

PubMed

Ruckart, Perri Zeitz; Orr, Maureen F; Lanier, Kenneth; Koehler, Allison

2008-11-15

The scientific literature concerning the public health response to the unprecedented hurricanes striking the Gulf Coast in August and September 2005 has focused mainly on assessing health-related needs and surveillance of injuries, infectious diseases, and other illnesses. However, the hurricanes also resulted in unintended hazardous substances releases in the affected states. Data from two states (Louisiana and Texas) participating in the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system were analyzed to describe the characteristics of hazardous substances releases in industrial settings associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. HSEES is an active multi-state Web-based surveillance system maintained by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). In 2005, 166 hurricane-related hazardous substances events in industrial settings in Louisiana and Texas were reported. Most (72.3%) releases were due to emergency shut downs in preparation for the hurricanes and start-ups after the hurricanes. Emphasis is given to the contributing causal factors, hazardous substances released, and event scenarios. Recommendations are made to prevent or minimize acute releases of hazardous substances during future hurricanes, including installing backup power generation, securing equipment and piping to withstand high winds, establishing procedures to shutdown process operations safely, following established and up-to-date start-up procedures and checklists, and carefully performing pre-start-up safety reviews.

Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

2011-12-01

U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e.g., price adjustments to redistribute scarce resources). A sensitivity analysis of the ARkStorm economic impact model explores the effects of 1) the magnitude of the shocks (e.g., flood damages to buildings and infrastructure, agricultural productivity, and lifeline service disruptions), 2) the sustainability of the economic resilience strategies, and 3) the amount, timing, and source of reconstruction funds. The inclusion of an economic analysis in ShakeOut and ARkStorm broadens the range of interest in the scenario results. For example, the relative contribution of ShakeOut economic shocks to business interruption losses emphasized the need to reduce the impacts of fire following earthquake and water service disruption. Based on the magnitude and duration of the economic impacts for the ARkStorm scenario, policy experts surmised that business interruption policy time elements would be exceeded and business interruptions would be largely unfunded calling attention to the need for innovative funding solutions. Finally, economic impact analyses inform the question of paying now to mitigate or paying more later to recover.

The trauma signature of 2016 Hurricane Matthew and the psychosocial impact on Haiti

PubMed Central

Shultz, James M.; Cela, Toni; Marcelin, Louis Herns; Espinola, Maria; Heitmann, Ilva; Sanchez, Claudia; Jean Pierre, Arielle; Foo, Cheryl YunnShee; Thompson, Kip; Klotzbach, Philip; Espinel, Zelde; Rechkemmer, Andreas

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background. Hurricane Matthew was the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season, bringing severe impacts to multiple nations including direct landfalls in Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas, and the United States. However, Haiti experienced the greatest loss of life and population disruption. Methods. An established trauma signature (TSIG) methodology was used to examine the psychological consequences of Hurricane Matthew in relation to the distinguishing features of this event. TSIG analyses described the exposures of Haitian citizens to the unique constellation of hazards associated with this tropical cyclone. A hazard profile, a matrix of psychological stressors, and a “trauma signature” summary for the affected population of Haiti - in terms of exposures to hazard, loss, and change - were created specifically for this natural ecological disaster. Results. Hazard characteristics of this event included: deluging rains that triggered mudslides along steep, deforested terrain; battering hurricane winds (Category 4 winds in the “eye-wall” at landfall) that dismantled the built environment and launched projectile debris; flooding “storm surge” that moved ashore and submerged villages on the Tiburon peninsula; and pummeling wave action that destroyed infrastructure along the coastline. Many coastal residents were left defenseless to face the ravages of the storm. Hurricane Matthew's slow forward progress as it remained over super-heated ocean waters added to the duration and degree of the devastation. Added to the havoc of the storm itself, the risks for infectious disease spread, particularly in relation to ongoing epidemics of cholera and Zika, were exacerbated. Conclusions. Hurricane Matthew was a ferocious tropical cyclone whose meteorological characteristics amplified the system's destructive force during the storm's encounter with Haiti, leading to significant mortality, injury, and psychological trauma. PMID:28321360

A Hybrid Wind-Farm Parametrization for Mesoscale and Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Yang; Archer, Cristina L.

2018-04-01

To better understand the potential impact of wind farms on weather and climate at the regional to global scales, a new hybrid wind-farm parametrization is proposed for mesoscale and climate models. The proposed parametrization is a hybrid model because it is not based on physical processes or conservation laws, but on the multiple linear regression of the results of large-eddy simulations (LES) with the geometric properties of the wind-farm layout (e.g., the blockage ratio and blockage distance). The innovative aspect is that each wind turbine is treated individually based on its position in the farm and on the wind direction by predicting the velocity upstream of each turbine. The turbine-induced forces and added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) are first derived analytically and then implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Idealized simulations of the offshore Lillgrund wind farm are conducted. The wind-speed deficit and TKE predicted with the hybrid model are in excellent agreement with those from the LES results, while the wind-power production estimated with the hybrid model is within 10% of that observed. Three additional wind farms with larger inter-turbine spacing than at Lillgrund are also considered, and a similar agreement with LES results is found, proving that the hybrid parametrization works well with any wind farm regardless of the spacing between turbines. These results indicate the wind-turbine position, wind direction, and added TKE are essential in accounting for the wind-farm effects on the surroundings, for which the hybrid wind-farm parametrization is a promising tool.

KSC-2013-3597

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-09-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, engineers and technicians deploy the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer boom on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution, or MAVEN, spacecraft. The analyzer will measure the solar wind and electrons in the ionosphere of the Red Planet. MAVEN is being prepared for its scheduled launch in November from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Positioned in an orbit above the Red Planet, MAVEN will study the upper atmosphere of Mars in unprecedented detail. For more information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/maven/main/index.html Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2013-3598

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-09-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, engineers and technicians deploy the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer boom on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution, or MAVEN, spacecraft. The analyzer will measure the solar wind and electrons in the ionosphere of the Red Planet. MAVEN is being prepared for its scheduled launch in November from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Positioned in an orbit above the Red Planet, MAVEN will study the upper atmosphere of Mars in unprecedented detail. For more information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/maven/main/index.html Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2013-3596

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-09-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, engineers and technicians deploy the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer boom on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution, or MAVEN, spacecraft. The analyzer will measure the solar wind and electrons in the ionosphere of the Red Planet. MAVEN is being prepared for its scheduled launch in November from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Positioned in an orbit above the Red Planet, MAVEN will study the upper atmosphere of Mars in unprecedented detail. For more information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/maven/main/index.html Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2013-3600

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-09-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, engineers and technicians deploy the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer boom on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution, or MAVEN, spacecraft. The analyzer will measure the solar wind and electrons in the ionosphere of the Red Planet. MAVEN is being prepared for its scheduled launch in November from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Positioned in an orbit above the Red Planet, MAVEN will study the upper atmosphere of Mars in unprecedented detail. For more information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/maven/main/index.html Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2013-3601

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-09-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, engineers and technicians deploy the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer boom on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution, or MAVEN, spacecraft. The analyzer will measure the solar wind and electrons in the ionosphere of the Red Planet. MAVEN is being prepared for its scheduled launch in November from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Positioned in an orbit above the Red Planet, MAVEN will study the upper atmosphere of Mars in unprecedented detail. For more information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/maven/main/index.html Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2013-3599

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-09-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, engineers and technicians deploy the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer boom on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution, or MAVEN, spacecraft. The analyzer will measure the solar wind and electrons in the ionosphere of the Red Planet. MAVEN is being prepared for its scheduled launch in November from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Positioned in an orbit above the Red Planet, MAVEN will study the upper atmosphere of Mars in unprecedented detail. For more information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/maven/main/index.html Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-2013-3595

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-09-16

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Inside the Payload Hazardous Servicing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, engineers and technicians deploy the Solar Wind Electron Analyzer boom on the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution, or MAVEN, spacecraft. The analyzer will measure the solar wind and electrons in the ionosphere of the Red Planet. MAVEN is being prepared for its scheduled launch in November from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket. Positioned in an orbit above the Red Planet, MAVEN will study the upper atmosphere of Mars in unprecedented detail. For more information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/maven/main/index.html Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Experimental Study on New Multi-Column Tension-Leg-Type Floating Wind Turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yong-sheng; She, Xiao-he; He, Yan-ping; Yang, Jian-min; Peng, Tao; Kou, Yu-feng

2018-04-01

Deep-water regions often have winds favorable for offshore wind turbines, and floating turbines currently show the greatest potential to exploit such winds. This work established proper scaling laws for model tests, which were then implemented in the construction of a model wind turbine with optimally designed blades. The aerodynamic, hydrodynamic, and elastic characteristics of the proposed new multi-column tension-leg-type floating wind turbine (WindStar TLP system) were explored in the wave tank testing of a 1:50 scale model at the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Tests were conducted under conditions of still water, white noise waves, irregular waves, and combined wind, wave, and current loads. The results established the natural periods of the motion, damping, motion response amplitude operators, and tendon tensions of the WindStar TLP system under different environmental conditions, and thus could serve as a reference for further research. Key words: floating wind turbine, model test, WindStar TLP, dynamic response

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, O. E.; Adelfang, S. I.

1998-01-01

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Effective wind speed estimation: Comparison between Kalman Filter and Takagi-Sugeno observer techniques.

PubMed

Gauterin, Eckhard; Kammerer, Philipp; Kühn, Martin; Schulte, Horst

2016-05-01

Advanced model-based control of wind turbines requires knowledge of the states and the wind speed. This paper benchmarks a nonlinear Takagi-Sugeno observer for wind speed estimation with enhanced Kalman Filter techniques: The performance and robustness towards model-structure uncertainties of the Takagi-Sugeno observer, a Linear, Extended and Unscented Kalman Filter are assessed. Hence the Takagi-Sugeno observer and enhanced Kalman Filter techniques are compared based on reduced-order models of a reference wind turbine with different modelling details. The objective is the systematic comparison with different design assumptions and requirements and the numerical evaluation of the reconstruction quality of the wind speed. Exemplified by a feedforward loop employing the reconstructed wind speed, the benefit of wind speed estimation within wind turbine control is illustrated. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Description and evaluation of the CASA dual-Doppler system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Matthew

2011-12-01

Long range weather surveillance radars are designed for observing weather events for hundreds of kilometers from the radar and operate over a large coverage domain independently of weather conditions. As a result a loss in spatial resolution and limited temporal sampling of the weather phenomenon occurs. Due to the curvature of the Earth, long-range weather radars tend to make the majority of their precipitation and wind observations in the middle to upper troposphere, resulting in missed features associates with severe weather occurring in the lowest three kilometers of the troposphere. The spacing of long-range weather radars in the United States limits the feasibility of using dual-Doppler wind retrievals that would provide valuable information on the kinematics of weather events to end-users and researchers. The National Science Foundation Center for Collaborative Adapting Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) aims to change the current weather sensing model by increasing coverage of the lowest three kilometers of the troposphere by using densely spaced networked short-range weather radars. CASA has deployed a network of these radars in south-western Oklahoma, known as Integrated Project 1 (IP1). The individual radars are adaptively steered by an automated system known as the Meteorological Command and Control (MCC). The geometry of the IP1 network is such that the coverage domains of the individual radars are overlapping. A dual-Doppler system has been developed for the IP1 network which takes advantage of the overlapping coverage domains. The system is comprised of two subsystems, scan optimization and wind field retrieval. The scan strategy subsystem uses the DCAS model and the number of dual-Doppler pairs in the IP1 network to minimizes the normalized standard deviation in the wind field retrieval. The scan strategy subsystem also minimizes the synchronization error between two radars. The retrieval itself is comprised of two steps, data resampling and the retrieval process. The resampling step map data collected in radar coordinates to a common Cartesian grid. The retrieval process uses the radial velocity measurements to estimate the northward, eastward, and vertical component of the wind. The error in the retrieval is related to the beam crossing angle. The best retrievals occur at beam crossing angles greater than 30 degrees. During operations statistics on the scan strategy and wind field retrievals are collected in real-time. For the scan strategy subsystem statistics on the beam crossing angels, maximum elevation angle, number of elevation angles, maximum observable height, and synchronization time between radars in a pair are collected by the MCC. These statistics are used to evaluate the performance of the scan strategy subsystem. Observations of a strong wind event occurring on April 2, 2010 are used to evaluate the decision process associated with the scan strategy optimization. For the retrieval subsystem, the normalized standard deviation for the wind field retrieval is used to evaluate the quality of the retrieval. Wind fields from an EF2 tornado observed on May 14, 2009 are used to evaluate the quality of the wind field retrievals in hazardous wind events. Two techniques for visualizing vector fields are available, streamlines and arrows. Each visualization technique is evaluated based on the task of visualizing small and large scale phenomenon. Applications of the wind field retrievals include the computation of the vorticity and divergence fields. Vorticity and divergence for an EF2 tornado observed on May 14, 2009 are evaluated against vorticity and divergence for other observed tornadoes.

High-resolution sampling and analysis of air particulate matter in the Pear River Delta region of Southern China: source apportionment and health risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, S.; Day, P. K.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matters (PM), are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM10-2.5) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter were collected and examined in an industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the dataset by positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources, biomass combustion and marine aerosol. The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF) was applied to estimate the local source effects from wind direction using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk for hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Cr, Ni, Zn, V, Cu, Mn, Fe) and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (total HQ =HI) of PM2.5 was 2.09, which is two times higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1). The total carcinogenic risk was 3.37*10-3 for PM2.5, which was three orders higher than the acceptable limit (i.e. 1.0*10-6). Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks for human health, respectively. In additional, our results showed that industrial coal combustion source was the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study can provide new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

Atmospheric and wind modeling for ATC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slater, Gary L.

1990-01-01

The section on atmospheric modeling covers the following topics: the standard atmosphere, atmospheric variations, atmosphere requirements for ATC, and implementation of a software model for Center/Tracon Advisory System (CTAS). The section on wind modeling covers the following topics: wind data -- NOAA profiler system; wind profile estimation; incorporation of various data types into filtering scheme; spatial and temporal variation; and software implementation into CTAS. The appendices contain Matlab codes for atmospheric routines and for wind estimation.

Flying with the winds: differential migration strategies in relation to winds in moth and songbirds.

PubMed

Åkesson, Susanne

2016-01-01

The gamma Y moth selects to migrate in stronger winds compared to songbirds, enabling fast transport to distant breeding sites, but a lower precision in orientation as the moth allows itself to be drifted by the winds. Photo: Ian Woiwod. In Focus: Chapman, J.R., Nilsson, C., Lim, K.S., Bäckman, J., Reynolds, D.R. & Alerstam, T. (2015) Adaptive strategies in nocturnally migrating insects and songbirds: contrasting responses to winds. Journal of Animal Ecology, In press Insects and songbirds regularly migrate long distances across continents and seas. During these nocturnal migrations, they are exposed to a fluid medium, the air, in which they transport themselves by flight at similar speeds as the winds may carry them. It is crucial for an animal to select the most favourable flight conditions relative to winds to minimize the distance flown on a given amount of fuel and to avoid hazardous situations. Chapman et al. (2015a) showed contrasting strategies in how moths initiate migration predominantly under tailwind conditions, allowing themselves to drift to a larger extent and gain ground speed as compared to nocturnal songbird migrants. The songbirds use more variable flight strategies in relation to winds, where they sometimes allow themselves to drift, and at other occasions compensate for wind drift. This study shows how insects and birds have differentially adapted to migration in relation to winds, which is strongly dependent on their own flight capability, with higher flexibility enabling fine-tuned responses to keep a time programme and reach a goal in songbirds compared to in insects. © 2015 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Wind Field Extractions from SAR Sentinel-1 Images Using Electromagnetic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La, Tran Vu; Khenchaf, Ali; Comblet, Fabrice; Nahum, Carole

2016-08-01

Among available wind sources, i.e. measured data, numeric weather models, the retrieval of wind vectors from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data / images is particularly preferred due to a lot of SAR systems (available data in most meteorological conditions, revisit mode, high resolution, etc.). For this purpose, the retrieval of wind vectors is principally based on the empirical (EP) models, e.g. CMOD series in C-band. Little studies have been reported about the use of the electromagnetic (EM) models for wind vector retrieval, since it is quite complicated to invert. However, the EM models can be applied for most cases of polarization, frequency and wind regime. In order to evaluate the advantages and limits of the EM models for wind vector retrieval, we compare in this study estimated results by the EM and EP models for both cases of polarization (vertical-vertical, or VV-pol and horizontal- horizontal, or HH-pol).

Nonparametric Stochastic Model for Uncertainty Quantifi cation of Short-term Wind Speed Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Shehhi, A. M.; Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

2014-12-01

Wind energy is increasing in importance as a renewable energy source due to its potential role in reducing carbon emissions. It is a safe, clean, and inexhaustible source of energy. The amount of wind energy generated by wind turbines is closely related to the wind speed. Wind speed forecasting plays a vital role in the wind energy sector in terms of wind turbine optimal operation, wind energy dispatch and scheduling, efficient energy harvesting etc. It is also considered during planning, design, and assessment of any proposed wind project. Therefore, accurate prediction of wind speed carries a particular importance and plays significant roles in the wind industry. Many methods have been proposed in the literature for short-term wind speed forecasting. These methods are usually based on modeling historical fixed time intervals of the wind speed data and using it for future prediction. The methods mainly include statistical models such as ARMA, ARIMA model, physical models for instance numerical weather prediction and artificial Intelligence techniques for example support vector machine and neural networks. In this paper, we are interested in estimating hourly wind speed measures in United Arab Emirates (UAE). More precisely, we predict hourly wind speed using a nonparametric kernel estimation of the regression and volatility functions pertaining to nonlinear autoregressive model with ARCH model, which includes unknown nonlinear regression function and volatility function already discussed in the literature. The unknown nonlinear regression function describe the dependence between the value of the wind speed at time t and its historical data at time t -1, t - 2, … , t - d. This function plays a key role to predict hourly wind speed process. The volatility function, i.e., the conditional variance given the past, measures the risk associated to this prediction. Since the regression and the volatility functions are supposed to be unknown, they are estimated using nonparametric kernel methods. In addition, to the pointwise hourly wind speed forecasts, a confidence interval is also provided which allows to quantify the uncertainty around the forecasts.

Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

IEA-Task 31 WAKEBENCH: Towards a protocol for wind farm flow model evaluation. Part 2: Wind farm wake models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriarty, Patrick; Sanz Rodrigo, Javier; Gancarski, Pawel; Chuchfield, Matthew; Naughton, Jonathan W.; Hansen, Kurt S.; Machefaux, Ewan; Maguire, Eoghan; Castellani, Francesco; Terzi, Ludovico; Breton, Simon-Philippe; Ueda, Yuko

2014-06-01

Researchers within the International Energy Agency (IEA) Task 31: Wakebench have created a framework for the evaluation of wind farm flow models operating at the microscale level. The framework consists of a model evaluation protocol integrated with a web-based portal for model benchmarking (www.windbench.net). This paper provides an overview of the building-block validation approach applied to wind farm wake models, including best practices for the benchmarking and data processing procedures for validation datasets from wind farm SCADA and meteorological databases. A hierarchy of test cases has been proposed for wake model evaluation, from similarity theory of the axisymmetric wake and idealized infinite wind farm, to single-wake wind tunnel (UMN-EPFL) and field experiments (Sexbierum), to wind farm arrays in offshore (Horns Rev, Lillgrund) and complex terrain conditions (San Gregorio). A summary of results from the axisymmetric wake, Sexbierum, Horns Rev and Lillgrund benchmarks are used to discuss the state-of-the-art of wake model validation and highlight the most relevant issues for future development.

Evaluation of a micro-scale wind model's performance over realistic building clusters using wind tunnel experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ning; Du, Yunsong; Miao, Shiguang; Fang, Xiaoyi

2016-08-01

The simulation performance over complex building clusters of a wind simulation model (Wind Information Field Fast Analysis model, WIFFA) in a micro-scale air pollutant dispersion model system (Urban Microscale Air Pollution dispersion Simulation model, UMAPS) is evaluated using various wind tunnel experimental data including the CEDVAL (Compilation of Experimental Data for Validation of Micro-Scale Dispersion Models) wind tunnel experiment data and the NJU-FZ experiment data (Nanjing University-Fang Zhuang neighborhood wind tunnel experiment data). The results show that the wind model can reproduce the vortexes triggered by urban buildings well, and the flow patterns in urban street canyons and building clusters can also be represented. Due to the complex shapes of buildings and their distributions, the simulation deviations/discrepancies from the measurements are usually caused by the simplification of the building shapes and the determination of the key zone sizes. The computational efficiencies of different cases are also discussed in this paper. The model has a high computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical models that solve the Navier-Stokes equations, and can produce very high-resolution (1-5 m) wind fields of a complex neighborhood scale urban building canopy (~ 1 km ×1 km) in less than 3 min when run on a personal computer.

Wind models for the NSTS ascent trajectory biasing for wind load alleviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, O. E.; Adelfang, S. I.; Batts, G. W.; Hill, C. K.

1989-01-01

New concepts are presented for aerospace vehicle ascent wind profile biasing. The purpose for wind biasing the ascent trajectory is to provide ascent wind loads relief and thus decrease the probability for launch delays due to wind loads exceeding critical limits. Wind biasing trajectories to the profile of monthly mean winds have been widely used for this purpose. The wind profile models presented give additional alternatives for wind biased trajectories. They are derived from the properties of the bivariate normal probability function using the available wind statistical parameters for the launch site. The analytical expressions are presented to permit generalizations. Specific examples are given to illustrate the procedures. The wind profile models can be used to establish the ascent trajectory steering commands to guide the vehicle through the first stage. For the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) program these steering commands are called I-loads.

A New Non-gaussian Turbulent Wind Field Generator to Estimate Design-Loads of Wind-Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaffarczyk, A. P.; Gontier, H.; Kleinhans, D.; Friedrich, R.

Climate change and finite fossil fuel resources make it urgent to turn into electricity generation from mostly renewable energies. One major part will play wind-energy supplied by wind-turbines of rated power up to 10 MW. For their design and development wind field models have to be used. The standard models are based on the empirical spectra, for example by von Karman or Kaimal. From investigation of measured data it is clear that gusts are underrepresented in such models. Based on some fundamental discoveries of the nature of turbulence by Friedrich [1] derived from the Navier-Stokes equation directly, we used the concept of Continuous Time Random Walks to construct three dimensional wind fields obeying non-Gaussian statistics. These wind fields were used to estimate critical fatigue loads necessary within the certification process. Calculations are carried out with an implementation of a beam-model (FLEX5) for two types of state-of-the-art wind turbines The authors considered the edgewise and flapwise blade-root bending moments as well as tilt moment at tower top due to the standard wind field models and our new non-Gaussian wind field model. Clear differences in the loads were found.

Optimal Locations for Siting Wind Energy Projects: Technical Challenges, Economics, and Public Preferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, Julian V.

Increasing the percentage of wind power in the United States electricity generation mix would facilitate the transition towards a more sustainable, low-pollution, and environmentally-conscious electricity grid. However, this effort is not without cost. Wind power generation is time-variable and typically not synchronized with electricity demand (i.e., load). In addition, the highest-output wind resources are often located in remote locations, necessitating transmission investment between generation sites and load. Furthermore, negative public perceptions of wind projects could prevent widespread wind development, especially for projects close to densely-populated communities. The work presented in my dissertation seeks to understand where it's best to locate wind energy projects while considering these various factors. First, in Chapter 2, I examine whether energy storage technologies, such as grid-scale batteries, could help reduce the transmission upgrade costs incurred when siting wind projects in distant locations. For a case study of a hypothetical 200 MW wind project in North Dakota that delivers power to Illinois, I present an optimization model that estimates the optimal size of transmission and energy storage capacity that yields the lowest average cost of generation and transmission (/MWh). I find that for this application of storage to be economical, energy storage costs would have to be 100/kWh or lower, which is well below current costs for available technologies. I conclude that there are likely better ways to use energy storage than for accessing distant wind projects. Following from this work, in Chapter 3, I present an optimization model to estimate the economics of accessing high quality wind resources in remote areas to comply with renewable energy policy targets. I include temporal aspects of wind power (variability costs and correlation to market prices) as well as total wind power produced from different farms. I assess the goal of providing 40 TWh of new wind generation in the Midwestern transmission system (MISO) while minimizing system costs. Results show that building wind farms in North/South Dakota (windiest states) compared to Illinois (less windy, but close to population centers) would only be economical if the incremental transmission costs to access them were below 360/kW of wind capacity (break-even value). Historically, the incremental transmission costs for wind development in North/South Dakota compared to in Illinois are about twice this value. However, the break-even incremental transmission cost for wind farms in Minnesota/Iowa (also windy states) is 250/kW, which is consistent with historical costs. I conclude that for the case in MISO, building wind projects in more distant locations (i.e., Minnesota/Iowa) is most economical. My two final chapters use semi-structured interviews (Chapter 4) and conjoint-based surveys (Chapter 5) to understand public perceptions and preferences for different wind project siting characteristics such as the distance between the project and a person's home (i.e., "not-in-my-backyard" or NIMBY) and offshore vs. onshore locations. The semi-structured interviews, conducted with members of a community in Massachusetts, revealed that economic benefit to the community is the most important factor driving perceptions about projects, along with aesthetics, noise impacts, environmental benefits, hazard to wildlife, and safety concerns. In Chapter 5, I show the results from the conjoint survey. The study's sample included participants from a coastal community in Massachusetts and a U.S.-wide sample from Amazon's Mechanical Turk. Results show that participants in the U.S.-wide sample perceived a small reduction in utility, equivalent to $1 per month, for living within 1 mile of a project. Surprisingly, I find no evidence of this effect for participants in the coastal community. The most important characteristic to both samples was the economic benefits from the project - both to their community through increased tax revenue, and to individuals through reduced monthly energy bills. Further, participants in both samples preferred onshore to offshore projects, but that preference was much stronger in the coastal community. I also find that participants from the coastal community preferred expanding an existing wind projects rather than building an entirely new one, whereas those in the U.S.-wide sample were indifferent, and equally supportive of the two options. These differences are likely driven by the prior positive experience the coastal community has had with an existing onshore wind project as well as their strong cultural identity that favors ocean views. I conclude that preference for increased distance from a wind project (NIMBY) is likely small or non-existent and that offshore wind projects within 5 miles from shore could cause large welfare losses to coastal communities. Finally, in Chapter 6, I provide a discussion and policy recommendations from my work. Importantly, I recommend that future research should combine the various topics throughout my chapters (i.e., transmission requirements, hourly power production, variability impacts to the grid, and public preferences) into a comprehensive model that identifies optimal locations for wind projects across the United States.

A Trajectory Forecast Model as an Event Response Tool: Tracking an Anhydrous Ammonia Spill in Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, H.; Luther, M. E.; Meyers, S. D.

2008-12-01

Response time is critical following a hazardous spill in a marine environment and rapid assessment of circulation patterns can mitigate the damage. Tampa Bay Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (TB- PORTS) data are used to drive a numerical circulation model of the bay for the purpose of hazardous material spill response, monitoring of human health risks, and environmental protection and management. The model is capable of rapidly producing forecast simulations that, in the event of a human health or ecosystem threat, can alert authorities to areas in Tampa Bay with a high probability of being affected by the material. Responders to an anhydrous ammonia spill in November 2007 in Tampa Bay utilized the numerical model of circulation in the estuary to predict where the spill was likely to be transported. The model quickly generated a week-long simulation predicting how winds and currents might move the spill around the bay. The physical mechanisms transporting ammonium alternated from being tidally driven for the initial two days following the spill to a more classical two-layered circulation for the remainder of the simulation. Velocity profiles of Tampa Bay reveal a strong outward flowing current present at the time of the simulation which acted as a significant transport mechanism for ammonium within the bay. Probability distributions, calculated from the predicted model trajectories, guided sampling in the days after the spill resulting in the detection of a toxic Pseudo-nitzschia bloom that likely was initiated as a result of the anhydrous ammonia spill. The prediction system at present is only accessible to scientists in the Ocean Monitoring and Prediction Lab (OMPL) at the University of South Florida. The forecast simulations are compiled into an animation that is provided to end users at their request. In the future, decision makers will be allowed access to an online component of the coastal prediction system that can be used to manage response and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the risk from such disasters as a hazardous material spills or ship groundings.

Performance evaluation of a semi-active cladding connection for multi-hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Yongqiang; Cao, Liang; Micheli, Laura; Laflamme, Simon; Quiel, Spencer; Ricles, James

2018-03-01

A novel semi-active damping device termed Variable Friction Cladding Connection (VFCC) has been previously proposed to leverage cladding systems for the mitigation of natural and man-made hazards. The VFCC is a semi-active friction damper that connects cladding elements to the structural system. The friction force is generated by sliding plates and varied using an actuator through a system of adjustable toggles. The dynamics of the device has been previously characterized in a laboratory environment. In this paper, the performance of the VFCC at mitigating non-simultaneous multi-hazard excitations that includes wind and seismic loads is investigated on a simulated benchmark building. Simulations consider the robustness with respect to some uncertainties, including the wear of the friction surfaces and sensor failure. The performance of the VFCC is compared against other connection strategies including traditional stiffness, passive viscous, and passive friction elements. Results show that the VFCC is robust and capable of outperforming passive systems for the mitigation of multiple hazards.

Vector wind and vector wind shear models 0 to 27 km altitude for Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, O. E.

1976-01-01

The techniques are presented to derive several statistical wind models. The techniques are from the properties of the multivariate normal probability function. Assuming that the winds can be considered as bivariate normally distributed, then (1) the wind components and conditional wind components are univariate normally distributed, (2) the wind speed is Rayleigh distributed, (3) the conditional distribution of wind speed given a wind direction is Rayleigh distributed, and (4) the frequency of wind direction can be derived. All of these distributions are derived from the 5-sample parameter of wind for the bivariate normal distribution. By further assuming that the winds at two altitudes are quadravariate normally distributed, then the vector wind shear is bivariate normally distributed and the modulus of the vector wind shear is Rayleigh distributed. The conditional probability of wind component shears given a wind component is normally distributed. Examples of these and other properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution function as applied to Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California, wind data samples are given. A technique to develop a synthetic vector wind profile model of interest to aerospace vehicle applications is presented.

Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

PubMed

de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

2012-01-01

Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

A New Global Regression Analysis Method for the Prediction of Wind Tunnel Model Weight Corrections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Bridge, Thomas M.; Amaya, Max A.

2014-01-01

A new global regression analysis method is discussed that predicts wind tunnel model weight corrections for strain-gage balance loads during a wind tunnel test. The method determines corrections by combining "wind-on" model attitude measurements with least squares estimates of the model weight and center of gravity coordinates that are obtained from "wind-off" data points. The method treats the least squares fit of the model weight separate from the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Therefore, it performs two fits of "wind- off" data points and uses the least squares estimator of the model weight as an input for the fit of the center of gravity coordinates. Explicit equations for the least squares estimators of the weight and center of gravity coordinates are derived that simplify the implementation of the method in the data system software of a wind tunnel. In addition, recommendations for sets of "wind-off" data points are made that take typical model support system constraints into account. Explicit equations of the confidence intervals on the model weight and center of gravity coordinates and two different error analyses of the model weight prediction are also discussed in the appendices of the paper.

Practical Design Guidelines for Fugitive Gas Detection from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandy, William D., Jr.

Simulation, design, and analysis are combined in this effort to realize a UAV-scale instrument for fugitive gas detection. The contributing material to the industry begins by extending and correlating an integrated Gaussian plume model useful for instrument predictions and trade studies, regardless of the instrument type or molecule of interest. A variety of generally applicable plots are produced from this foundation, including receiver operator curves for leak rate detectability vs. wind speed, beam diameter vs. leak rate detectability, and plots for required scan densities. The atmospheric and instrument parameter trade studies are followed by hardware-specific analyses applicable to differential absorption lidar (DIAL) instruments. A synopsis of the lessons learned from hands-on experiences in the lab further define the design space for DIAL sensors. The dissertation culminates in the detailed design and analysis of two DIAL instrument concepts. The conclusion is that a DIAL instrument capable of reliably detecting a 50 SCFH plume in winds speeds up to 7 mph is on the threshold of being achievable on a quadcopter platform. Of special note is that the effort was funded by a Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration grant and performed in collaboration with Ball Aerospace & Technologies.

Weather features associated with aircraft icing conditions: a case study.

PubMed

Fernández-González, Sergio; Sánchez, José Luis; Gascón, Estíbaliz; López, Laura; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Merino, Andrés

2014-01-01

In the context of aviation weather hazards, the study of aircraft icing is very important because of several accidents attributed to it over recent decades. On February 1, 2012, an unusual meteorological situation caused severe icing of a C-212-200, an aircraft used during winter 2011-2012 to study winter cloud systems in the Guadarrama Mountains of the central Iberian Peninsula. Observations in this case were from a MP-3000A microwave radiometric profiler, which acquired atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles continuously every 2.5 minutes. A Cloud Aerosol and Precipitation Spectrometer (CAPS) was also used to study cloud hydrometeors. Finally, ice nuclei concentration was measured in an isothermal cloud chamber, with the goal of calculating concentrations in the study area. Synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions were analysed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It was demonstrated that topography influenced generation of a mesolow and gravity waves on the lee side of the orographic barrier, in the region where the aircraft experienced icing. Other factors such as moisture, wind direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, and wind shear were decisive in the appearance of icing. This study indicates that icing conditions may arise locally, even when the synoptic situation does not indicate any risk.

The role of atmospheric shear, turbulence and a ground plane on the dissipation of aircraft vortex wakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilanin, A. J.; Teske, M. E.; Hirsh, J. E.

1978-01-01

Enhanced dispersion of two-dimensional trailed vortex pairs within simplified neutral atmospheric backgrounds is studied numerically for three conditions: when the pair is imbedded in a constant turbulent bath (constant dissipation); when the pair is subjected to a mean cross-wind shear; and when the pair is near the ground. Turbulent transport is modeled using second-order closure turbulent transport theory. The turbulent background fields are constructed using a superequilibrium approximation. The computed results allow several general conclusions to be drawn with regard to the reduction in circulation of the vortex pair and the rolling moment induced on a following aircraft: (1) the rate of decay of a vortex pair increases with increasing background dissipation rate; (2) cross-wind shear disperses the vortex whose vorticity is opposite to the background; and (3) the proximity of a ground plane reduces the hazard of the pair by scrubbing. The phenomenon of vortex bounce is explained in terms of secondary vorticity produced at the ground plane. Qualitative comparisons are made with available experimental data, and inferences of these results upon the persistence of aircraft trailing vortices are discussed.

1/50 Scale Model Of The 80X120 Foot Wind Tunnel Model (NFAC) In The Test Section Of The 40X80 Wind Tunnel At Nasa Ames.

NASA Image and Video Library

1976-03-12

(03/12/1976) Overhead view of 1/50 scale model of the 80x120 foot wind tunnel model (NFAC) in the test section of the 40x80 wind tunnel at NASA Ames. Model mounted on a rotating ground board designed for this test.

WRF simulation of downslope wind events in coastal Santa Barbara County

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Forest; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Hall, Todd; Gomberg, David; Dumas, John; Jackson, Mark

2017-07-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) considers frequent gusty downslope winds, accompanied by rapid warming and decreased relative humidity, among the most significant weather events affecting southern California coastal areas in the vicinity of Santa Barbara (SB). These extreme conditions, commonly known as "sundowners", have affected the evolution of all major wildfires that impacted SB in recent years. Sundowners greatly increase fire, aviation and maritime navigation hazards and are thus a priority for regional forecasting. Currently, the NWS employs the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 2 km resolution to complement forecasts at regional-to-local scales. However, no systematic study has been performed to evaluate the skill of WRF in simulating sundowners. This research presents a case study of an 11-day period in spring 2004 during which sundowner events were observed on multiple nights. We perform sensitivity experiments for WRF using available observations for validation and demonstrate that WRF is skillful in representing the general mesoscale structure of these events, though important shortcomings exist. Furthermore, we discuss the generation and evolution of sundowners during the case study using the best performing configuration, and compare these results to hindcasts for two major SB fires. Unique, but similar, profiles of wind and stability are observed over SB between case studies despite considerable differences in large-scale circulation, indicating that common conditions may exist across all events. These findings aid in understanding the evolution of sundowner events and are potentially valuable for event prediction.

Wind shear predictive detector technology study status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gandolfi, C.

1990-01-01

Among the different elements to be investigated when considering the Wind Shear hazard, the Aeronautical Navigation Technical Service (STNA/3E), whose task is to participate in the development of new technologies and equipments, focused its effort on airborne and ground sensors for the detection of low-level wind shear. The first task, initiated in 1986, consists in the evaluation of three candidate techniques for forward-looking sensors: lidar, sodar, and radar. No development is presently foreseen for an infrared based air turbulence advance warning system although some flight experiments took place in the 70's. A Thomson infrared radiometer was then installed on an Air France Boeing 707 to evaluate its capability of detecting clear air turbulence. The conclusion showed that this technique was apparently able to detect cloud layers but that additional experiments were needed; on the other hand, the rarity of the phenomenon and the difficulty in operating on a commercial aircraft were also mentioned.

Application of Satellite Data to Develop Wind Potential Model: A Case Study of Pakistan Coastal Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nayyar, Z. A.; Zaigham, N. A.

2010-12-01

Since the independence in 1947, the Pakistan relies on the conventional resources for the generation of electricity. Since the local production of fossil fuel is not sufficient to fulfill the growing need of the country, the major economic burden involves huge import of petroleum products. In such a situation, the renewable energy resources are imperative in view to substantiate the economic burden. Wind energy resource is one of them, which is freely available and environmental friendly in nature. Pakistan is the late starter in the field of wind energy technology mainly because of the unavailability of the baseline wind data. As such, the adequate wind modeling and identification of the potential areas are imperative for the development of wind energy technology in the country. Present research study is carried out, based on the available satellite-collected wind data, to establish the rational wind potential model(s) of lower Indus Plains and Sindh coastal areas of Pakistan. The results of the present study reveals interesting pattern of the wind energy potential demarcating the higher wind energy resource zones and indicating hot spots for the future wind-farm installations. This paper describes the use of available satellite-collected wind data in the demarcation and modeling of wind potential along the lower Indus coastal belt and the methodology could be replicated on other parts of Pakistan and/or other counties.

Guest Editorial Modeling and Advanced Control of Wind Turbines/Wind Farms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, J.; Hou, Y.; Zhu, Z.

2017-09-01

The papers in this special section brings together papers focused on the recent advancements and breakthroughs in the technology of modeling and enhanced active/reactive power control of wind power conversion systems, ranging from components of wind turbines to wind farms.

Synchrophasor Sensing and Processing based Smart Grid Security Assessment for Renewable Energy Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Huaiguang

With the evolution of energy and power systems, the emerging Smart Grid (SG) is mainly featured by distributed renewable energy generations, demand-response control and huge amount of heterogeneous data sources. Widely distributed synchrophasor sensors, such as phasor measurement units (PMUs) and fault disturbance recorders (FDRs), can record multi-modal signals, for power system situational awareness and renewable energy integration. An effective and economical approach is proposed for wide-area security assessment. This approach is based on wavelet analysis for detecting and locating the short-term and long-term faults in SG, using voltage signals collected by distributed synchrophasor sensors. A data-driven approach for fault detection, identification and location is proposed and studied. This approach is based on matching pursuit decomposition (MPD) using Gaussian atom dictionary, hidden Markov model (HMM) of real-time frequency and voltage variation features, and fault contour maps generated by machine learning algorithms in SG systems. In addition, considering the economic issues, the placement optimization of distributed synchrophasor sensors is studied to reduce the number of the sensors without affecting the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Furthermore, because the natural hazards is a critical issue for power system security, this approach is studied under different types of faults caused by natural hazards. A fast steady-state approach is proposed for voltage security of power systems with a wind power plant connected. The impedance matrix can be calculated by the voltage and current information collected by the PMUs. Based on the impedance matrix, locations in SG can be identified, where cause the greatest impact on the voltage at the wind power plants point of interconnection. Furthermore, because this dynamic voltage security assessment method relies on time-domain simulations of faults at different locations, the proposed approach is feasible, convenient and effective. Conventionally, wind energy is highly location-dependent. Many desirable wind resources are located in rural areas without direct access to the transmission grid. By connecting MW-scale wind turbines or wind farms to the distributions system of SG, the cost of building long transmission facilities can be avoid and wind power supplied to consumers can be greatly increased. After the effective wide area monitoring (WAM) approach is built, an event-driven control strategy is proposed for renewable energy integration. This approach is based on support vector machine (SVM) predictor and multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) model predictive control (MPC) on linear time-invariant (LTI) and linear time-variant (LTV) systems. The voltage condition of the distribution system is predicted by the SVM classifier using synchrophasor measurement data. The controllers equipped with wind turbine generators are triggered by the prediction results. Both transmission level and distribution level are designed based on this proposed approach. Considering economic issues in the power system, a statistical scheduling approach to economic dispatch and energy reserves is proposed. The proposed approach focuses on minimizing the overall power operating cost with considerations of renewable energy uncertainty and power system security. The hybrid power system scheduling is formulated as a convex programming problem to minimize power operating cost, taking considerations of renewable energy generation, power generation-consumption balance and power system security. A genetic algorithm based approach is used for solving the minimization of the power operating cost. In addition, with technology development, it can be predicted that the renewable energy such as wind turbine generators and PV panels will be pervasively located in distribution systems. The distribution system is an unbalanced system, which contains single-phase, two-phase and three-phase loads, and distribution lines. The complex configuration brings a challenge to power flow calculation. A topology analysis based iterative approach is used to solve this problem. In this approach, a self-adaptive topology recognition method is used to analyze the distribution system, and the backward/forward sweep algorithm is used to generate the power flow results. Finally, for the numerical simulations, the IEEE 14-bus, 30-bus, 39-bus and 118-bus systems are studied for fault detection, identification and location. Both transmission level and distribution level models are employed with the proposed control strategy for voltage stability of renewable energy integration. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The IEEE 24-bus reliability test system (IEEE-RTS), which is commonly used for evaluating the price stability and reliability of power system, is used as the test bench for verifying and evaluating system performance of the proposed scheduling approach.

Wall modeled LES of wind turbine wakes with geometrical effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bricteux, Laurent; Benard, Pierre; Zeoli, Stephanie; Moureau, Vincent; Lartigue, Ghislain; Vire, Axelle

2017-11-01

This study focuses on prediction of wind turbine wakes when geometrical effects such as nacelle, tower, and built environment, are taken into account. The aim is to demonstrate the ability of a high order unstructured solver called YALES2 to perform wall modeled LES of wind turbine wake turbulence. The wind turbine rotor is modeled using an Actuator Line Model (ALM) while the geometrical details are explicitly meshed thanks to the use of an unstructured grid. As high Reynolds number flows are considered, sub-grid scale models as well as wall modeling are required. The first test case investigated concerns a wind turbine flow located in a wind tunnel that allows to validate the proposed methodology using experimental data. The second test case concerns the simulation of a wind turbine wake in a complex environment (e.g. a Building) using realistic turbulent inflow conditions.

WIND SPEED Monitoring in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2016-12-01

The wind regime of Russia varies a great deal due to the large size of the country's territory and variety of climate and terrain conditions. Changes in the regime of surface wind are of great practical importance. They can affect heat and water balance. Strong wind is one of the most hazardous meteorological event for various sectors of economy and for infrastructure. The main objective of this research is to monitoring wind speed change in Northern Eurasia At meteorological stations wind speed and wind direction are measured at the height of 10-12 meters over the land surface with the help of wind meters or wind wanes. Calculations were made on the basis of data for the period of 1980-2015. It allowed the massive scale disruption of homogeneity to be eliminated and sufficient period needed to obtain sustainable statistic characteristics to be retained. Data on average and maximum wind speed measured at 1457 stations of Russia were used. The analysis of changes in wind characteristics was made on the basis of point data and series of average characteristics obtained for 18 quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Statistical characteristics (average and maximum values of wind speed, prevailing wind direction, values of the boundary of the 90%, 95% and 99%-confidence interval in the distribution of maximum wind speed) were obtained for all seasons and for the year as a whole. Values of boundaries of the 95% and 99%-confidence interval in the distribution of maximum wind speed were considered as indicators of extremeness of the wind regime. The trend of changes in average and maximum wind speed was assessed with a linear trend coefficient. A special attention was paid to wind changes in the Arctic where dramatic changes in surface air temperature and sea ice extent and density have been observed during the past decade. The analysis of the results allowed seasonal and regional features of changes in the wind regime on the territory of the northern part of Eurasia to be determined. The outcomes could help to provide specific recommendations to users of hydrometeorological information for making reasonable decisions to minimize losses caused by adverse wind-related weather conditions. The work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (grant 14.B25.31.0026).

Remote Sensing Analysis of Forest Disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asner, Gregory P. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

The present invention provides systems and methods to automatically analyze Landsat satellite data of forests. The present invention can easily be used to monitor any type of forest disturbance such as from selective logging, agriculture, cattle ranching, natural hazards (fire, wind events, storms), etc. The present invention provides a large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote sensing analysis of such disturbances.

Remote sensing analysis of forest disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asner, Gregory P. (Inventor)

2012-01-01

The present invention provides systems and methods to automatically analyze Landsat satellite data of forests. The present invention can easily be used to monitor any type of forest disturbance such as from selective logging, agriculture, cattle ranching, natural hazards (fire, wind events, storms), etc. The present invention provides a large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote sensing analysis of such disturbances.

40 CFR 264.1101 - Design and operating standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... enclosed with a floor, walls, and a roof to prevent exposure to the elements, (e.g., precipitation, wind... pressure gradients, settlement, compression, or uplift, physical contact with the hazardous wastes to which... transmissivity of 3 × 10−5 m2/sec or more. (ii) If treatment is to be conducted in the building, an area in which...

40 CFR 264.1101 - Design and operating standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... enclosed with a floor, walls, and a roof to prevent exposure to the elements, (e.g., precipitation, wind... pressure gradients, settlement, compression, or uplift, physical contact with the hazardous wastes to which... transmissivity of 3 × 10−5 m2/sec or more. (ii) If treatment is to be conducted in the building, an area in which...

Breakthrough: Lead-free Solder

ScienceCinema

Anderson, Iver

2018-05-07

Ames Laboratory senior metallurgist Iver Anderson explains the importance of lead-free solder in taking hazardous lead out of the environment by eliminating it from discarded computers and electronics that wind up in landfills. Anderson led a team that developed a tin-silver-copper replacement for traditional lead-tin solder that has been adopted by more than 50 companies worldwide.

Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2015-07-01

Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25-100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period.

Intercomparison of state-of-the-art models for wind energy resources with mesoscale models:

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, Bjarke Tobias; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Badger, Jake; Joergensen, Hans E.

2016-04-01

1. Introduction Mesoscale models are increasingly being used to estimate wind conditions to identify perspective areas and sites where to develop wind farm projects. Mesoscale models are functional for giving information over extensive areas with various terrain complexities where measurements are scarce and measurement campaigns costly. Several mesoscale models and families of models are being used, and each often contains thousands of setup options. Since long-term integrations are expensive and tedious to carry out, only limited comparisons exist. To remedy this problem and for evaluating the capabilities of mesoscale models to estimate site wind conditions, a tailored benchmarking study has been co-organized by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the European Energy Research Alliance Joint Programme Wind Energy (EERA JP WIND). EWEA hosted results and ensured that participants were anonymous. The blind evaluation was performed at the Wind Energy Department of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) with the following objectives: (1) To highlight common issues on mesoscale modelling of wind conditions on sites with different characteristics, and (2) To identify gaps and strengths of models and understand the root conditions for further evaluating uncertainties. 2. Approach Three experimental sites were selected: FINO 3 (offshore, GE), Høvsore (coastal, DK), and Cabauw (land-based, NL), and three other sites without observations based on . The three mast sites were chosen because the availability of concurrent suitable time series of vertical profiles of winds speed and other surface parameters. The participants were asked to provide hourly time series of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, etc., at various vertical heights for a complete year. The methodology used to derive the time series was left to the choice of the participants, but they were asked for a brief description of their model and many other parameters (e.g., horizontal and vertical resolution, model parameterizations, surface roughness length) that could be used to group the various models and interpret the results of the intercomparison. 3. Main body abstract Twenty separate entries were received by the deadline of 31 March 2015. They included simulations done with various versions of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, but also of six other well-known mesoscale models. The various entries represent an excellent sample of the various models used in by the wind energy industry today. The analysis of the submitted time series included comparison to observations, summarized with well-known measures such as biases, RMSE, correlations, and of sector-wise statistics, e.g. frequency and Weibull A and k. The comparison also includes the observed and modeled temporal spectra. The various statistics were grouped as a function of the various models, their spatial resolution, forcing data, and the various integration methods. Many statistics have been computed and will be presented in addition to those shown in the Helsinki presentation. 4. Conclusions The analysis of the time series from twenty entries has shown to be an invaluable source of information about state of the art in wind modeling with mesoscale models. Biases between the simulated and observed wind speeds at hub heights (80-100 m AGL) from the various models are around ±1.0 m/s and fairly independent of the site and do not seem to be directly related to the model horizontal resolution used in the modeling. As probably expected, the wind speeds from the simulations using the various version of the WRF model cluster close to each other, especially in their description of the wind profile.

Wind-Tunnel Modeling of Flow Diffusion over an Urban Complex.

DTIC Science & Technology

URBAN AREAS, *ATMOSPHERIC MOTION, *AIR POLLUTION, ATMOSPHERIC MOTION, WIND TUNNEL MODELS, HEAT, DIFFUSION , TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER, WIND, SKIN FRICTION, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, URBAN PLANNING, INDIANA.

A reward semi-Markov process with memory for wind speed modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

2012-04-01

The increasing interest in renewable energy leads scientific research to find a better way to recover most of the available energy. Particularly, the maximum energy recoverable from wind is equal to 59.3% of that available (Betz law) at a specific pitch angle and when the ratio between the wind speed in output and in input is equal to 1/3. The pitch angle is the angle formed between the airfoil of the blade of the wind turbine and the wind direction. Old turbine and a lot of that actually marketed, in fact, have always the same invariant geometry of the airfoil. This causes that wind turbines will work with an efficiency that is lower than 59.3%. New generation wind turbines, instead, have a system to variate the pitch angle by rotating the blades. This system able the wind turbines to recover, at different wind speed, always the maximum energy, working in Betz limit at different speed ratios. A powerful system control of the pitch angle allows the wind turbine to recover better the energy in transient regime. A good stochastic model for wind speed is then needed to help both the optimization of turbine design and to assist the system control to predict the value of the wind speed to positioning the blades quickly and correctly. The possibility to have synthetic data of wind speed is a powerful instrument to assist designer to verify the structures of the wind turbines or to estimate the energy recoverable from a specific site. To generate synthetic data, Markov chains of first or higher order are often used [1,2,3]. In particular in [1] is presented a comparison between a first-order Markov chain and a second-order Markov chain. A similar work, but only for the first-order Markov chain, is conduced by [2], presenting the probability transition matrix and comparing the energy spectral density and autocorrelation of real and synthetic wind speed data. A tentative to modeling and to join speed and direction of wind is presented in [3], by using two models, first-order Markov chain with different number of states, and Weibull distribution. All this model use Markov chains to generate synthetic wind speed time series but the search for a better model is still open. Approaching this issue, we applied new models which are generalization of Markov models. More precisely we applied semi-Markov models to generate synthetic wind speed time series. The primary goal of this analysis is the study of the time history of the wind in order to assess its reliability as a source of power and to determine the associated storage levels required. In order to assess this issue we use a probabilistic model based on indexed semi-Markov process [4] to which a reward structure is attached. Our model is used to calculate the expected energy produced by a given turbine and its variability expressed by the variance of the process. Our results can be used to compare different wind farms based on their reward and also on the risk of missed production due to the intrinsic variability of the wind speed process. The model is used to generate synthetic time series for wind speed by means of Monte Carlo simulations and backtesting procedure is used to compare results on first and second oder moments of rewards between real and synthetic data. [1] A. Shamshad, M.A. Bawadi, W.M.W. Wan Hussin, T.A. Majid, S.A.M. Sanusi, First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic gen- eration of wind speed time series, Energy 30 (2005) 693-708. [2] H. Nfaoui, H. Essiarab, A.A.M. Sayigh, A stochastic Markov chain model for simulating wind speed time series at Tangiers, Morocco, Re- newable Energy 29 (2004) 1407-1418. [3] F. Youcef Ettoumi, H. Sauvageot, A.-E.-H. Adane, Statistical bivariate modeling of wind using first-order Markov chain and Weibull distribu- tion, Renewable Energy 28 (2003) 1787-1802. [4]F. Petroni, G. D'Amico, F. Prattico, Indexed semi-Markov process for wind speed modeling. To be submitted.

Near-Surface Wind Predictions in Complex Terrain with a CFD Approach Optimized for Atmospheric Boundary Layer Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Butler, B.; Shannon, K.

2014-12-01

Near-surface wind predictions are important for a number of applications, including transport and dispersion, wind energy forecasting, and wildfire behavior. Researchers and forecasters would benefit from a wind model that could be readily applied to complex terrain for use in these various disciplines. Unfortunately, near-surface winds in complex terrain are not handled well by traditional modeling approaches. Numerical weather prediction models employ coarse horizontal resolutions which do not adequately resolve sub-grid terrain features important to the surface flow. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly being applied to simulate atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows, especially in wind energy applications; however, the standard functionality provided in commercial CFD models is not suitable for ABL flows. Appropriate CFD modeling in the ABL requires modification of empirically-derived wall function parameters and boundary conditions to avoid erroneous streamwise gradients due to inconsistences between inlet profiles and specified boundary conditions. This work presents a new version of a near-surface wind model for complex terrain called WindNinja. The new version of WindNinja offers two options for flow simulations: 1) the native, fast-running mass-consistent method available in previous model versions and 2) a CFD approach based on the OpenFOAM modeling framework and optimized for ABL flows. The model is described and evaluations of predictions with surface wind data collected from two recent field campaigns in complex terrain are presented. A comparison of predictions from the native mass-consistent method and the new CFD method is also provided.

Array Effects in Large Wind Farms. Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-09-343

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moriarty, Patrick

2016-02-23

The effects of wind turbine wakes within operating wind farms have a substantial impact on the overall energy production from the farm. The current generation of models drastically underpredicts the impact of these wakes leading to non-conservative estimates of energy capture and financial losses to wind farm operators and developers. To improve these models, detailed research of operating wind farms is necessary. Rebecca Barthelmie of Indiana University is a world leader of wind farm wakes effects and would like to partner with NREL to help improve wind farm modeling by gathering additional wind farm data, develop better models and increasemore » collaboration with European researchers working in the same area. This is currently an active area of research at NREL and the capabilities of both parties should mesh nicely.« less

Wind Power Curve Modeling Using Statistical Models: An Investigation of Atmospheric Input Variables at a Flat and Complex Terrain Wind Farm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wharton, S.; Bulaevskaya, V.; Irons, Z.

The goal of our FY15 project was to explore the use of statistical models and high-resolution atmospheric input data to develop more accurate prediction models for turbine power generation. We modeled power for two operational wind farms in two regions of the country. The first site is a 235 MW wind farm in Northern Oklahoma with 140 GE 1.68 turbines. Our second site is a 38 MW wind farm in the Altamont Pass Region of Northern California with 38 Mitsubishi 1 MW turbines. The farms are very different in topography, climatology, and turbine technology; however, both occupy high wind resourcemore » areas in the U.S. and are representative of typical wind farms found in their respective areas.« less

Gap Winds in a Fjord: Howe Sound, British Columbia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Peter L.

1993-01-01

Gap, outflow, or Squamish wind, is the cold low level seaward flow of air through fjords which dissect the coastal mountain barrier of northwestern North America. These flows, occurring mainly during winter, can be strong, threatening safety, economic activity and comfort. Howe Sound gap winds were studied using a combination of observations and several types of models. Observations of winds in Howe Sound showed that gap wind strength varied considerably along the channel, across the channel and vertically. Generally, winds increase down the channel, are strongest along the eastern side, and are below 1000 m depth. Observations were unable to answer all questions about gap winds due to data sparseness, particularly in the vertical direction. Therefore, several modelling approaches were used. The modelling began with a complete 3-dimensional quasi-Boussinesq model (CSU RAMS) and ended with the creation and testing of models which are conceptually simpler, and more easily interpreted and manipulated. A gap wind simulation made using RAMS was shown to be mostly successful by statistical evaluation compared to other mesoscale simulations, and by visual inspection of the fields. The RAMS output, which has very high temporal and spatial resolution, provided much additional information about the details of gap flow. In particular, RAMS results suggested a close analogy between gap wind and hydraulic channel flow, with hydraulic features such as supercritical flow and hydraulic jumps apparent. These findings imply gap wind flow could potentially be represented by much simpler models. The simplest possible models containing pressure gradient, advection and friction but not incorporating hydraulic effects, were created, tested, and found lacking. A hydraulic model, which in addition incorporates varying gap wind height and channel geometry, was created and shown to successfully simulate gap winds. Force balance analysis from RAMS and the hydraulic model showed that pressure gradient and advection are the most important forces, followed by friction which becomes an important force in fast supercritical flow. The sensitivity of gap wind speed to various parameters was found from sensitivity tests using the hydraulic model. Results indicated that gap wind speed increases with increasing boundary layer height and speed at the head of channel, and increasing synoptic pressure gradient. Gap wind speed decreases with increasing friction, and increasing boundary layer height at the seaward channel end. Increasing temperature differences between the cold gap wind air and the warmer air aloft was found to increase the variability of the flow--higher maximum but lower mean wind speeds.

Marine data and its potential for coastal and offshore applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Elke; Weisse, Ralf

2013-04-01

The coastDat data set is a compilation of coastal analyses and scenarios for the future from various sources. It contains no direct measurements but results from numerical models that have been driven either by observed data in order to achieve the best possible representation of observed past conditions or by climate change scenarios for the near future. One of the key objectives for developing coastDat was to derive a consistent and mostly homogeneous database for assessing marine weather statistics and long-term changes. Here, homogeneity refers to a data set which is free from effects caused by changes in instrumentation or measurement techniques. Contrary to direct measurements which are often rare and incomplete, coastDat offers a unique combination of consistent atmospheric, oceanic, sea state and other parameters at high spatial and temporal detail, even for places and variables for which no measurements have been made. The backbones of coastDat are regional wind, wave and storm surge hindcast and scenarios mainly for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Furthermore hindcast simulations are available for temperature, salinity, water level, u- and v-components for the North Sea for last 60 years. We will discuss the methodology to derive these data, their quality and limitations in comparison with observations. Long-term changes in the temperature, wind, wave and storm surge climate will be discussed and potential future changes will be assessed. We will conclude with a number of coastal and offshore applications (e.g. ship design, coastal protection, oil risk modelling and marine energy use) of coastDat demonstrating some of the potentials of the data set in hazard assessment. For example data from coastDat have been used extensively for designing, planning and installation of offshore wind farms. Return periods of extreme wind speed, surge and wave heights are used by a variety of users involved in the design and construction of offshore wind parks. Moreover, planning of installation and maintenance requires the estimation of probabilities of weather windows; that is, for example the probability of an extended period with wave heights below a given threshold to enable installation and/or maintenance. Data from coastDat were frequently used in such cases as observational data are too often too short to derive reliable statistics. www.coastdat.de

The coastDat data set and its potential for coastal and offshore applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, E.; Weisse, R.

2012-12-01

The coastDat data set is a compilation of coastal analyses and scenarios for the future from various sources. It contains no direct measurements but results from numerical models that have been driven either by observed data in order to achieve the best possible representation of observed past conditions or by climate change scenarios for the near future. One of the key objectives for developing coastDat was to derive a consistent and mostly homogeneous database for assessing marine weather statistics and long-term changes. Here, homogeneity refers to a data set which is free from effects caused by changes in instrumentation or measurement techniques. Contrary to direct measurements which are often rare and incomplete, coastDat offers a unique combination of consistent atmospheric, oceanic, sea state and other parameters at high spatial and temporal detail, even for places and variables for which no measurements have been made. The backbones of coastDat are regional wind, wave and storm surge hindcast and scenarios mainly for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Furthermore hindcast simulations are available for temperature, salinity, water level, u- and v-components for the North Sea for last 60 years. We will discuss the methodology to derive these data, their quality and limitations in comparison with observations. Long-term changes in the temperature, wind, wave and storm surge climate will be discussed and potential future changes will be assessed. We will conclude with a number of coastal and offshore applications (e.g. ship design, coastal protection, oil risk modelling and marine energy use) of coastDat demonstrating some of the potentials of the data set in hazard assessment. For example data from coastDat have been used extensively for designing, planning and installation of offshore wind farms. Return periods of extreme wind speed, surge and wave heights are used by a variety of users involved in the design and construction of offshore wind parks. Moreover, planning of installation and maintenance requires the estimation of probabilities of weather windows; that is, for example the probability of an extended period with wave heights below a given threshold to enable installation and/or maintenance. Data from coastDat were frequently used in such cases as observational data are too often too short to derive reliable statistics.

NREL Leads Wind Farm Modeling Research - Continuum Magazine | NREL

Science.gov Websites

ten 2-MW Bonus wind turbines. Photo provided by HC Sorensen, Middelgrunden Wind Turbine Cooperative ) has created complex computer modeling tools to improve wind turbine design and overall wind farm activity surrounding a multi-megawatt wind turbine. In addition to its work with Doppler LIDAR, the

@NWTC Newsletter: Summer 2014 | Wind | NREL

Science.gov Websites

, Developmental Role in Major Wind Journal Boosting Wind Plant Power Output by 4%-5% through Coordinated Turbine . Part 2: Wind Farm Wake Models New Framework Transforms FAST Wind Turbine Modeling Tool (Fact Sheet ) Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Plant Performance to Key Turbine Design Parameters: A Systems Engineering

Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of an onshore wind farm: assessment against LiDAR and SCADA data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoni, Christian; Garcia-Cartagena, Edgardo J.; Zhan, Lu; Iungo, Giacomo Valerio; Leonardi, Stefano

2017-11-01

The integration of wind farm parameterizations into numerical weather prediction models is essential to study power production under realistic conditions. Nevertheless, recent models are unable to capture turbine wake interactions and, consequently, the mean kinetic energy entrainment, which are essential for the development of power optimization models. To address the study of wind turbine wake interaction, one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The simulation contains five nested domains modeling the mesoscale wind on the entire North Texas Panhandle region to the microscale wind fluctuations and turbine wakes of a wind farm located at Panhandle, Texas. The wind speed, direction and boundary layer profile obtained from WRF were compared against measurements obtained with a sonic anemometer and light detection and ranging system located within the wind farm. Additionally, the power production were assessed against measurements obtained from the supervisory control and data acquisition system located in each turbine. Furthermore, to incorporate the turbines into very coarse LES, a modification to the implementation of the wind farm parameterization by Fitch et al. (2012) is proposed. This work was supported by the NSF, Grants No. 1243482 (WINDINSPIRE) and IIP 1362033 (WindSTAR), and TACC.

Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and ARIMA statistical models in simulations of target wind time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolokythas, Kostantinos; Vasileios, Salamalikis; Athanassios, Argiriou; Kazantzidis, Andreas

2015-04-01

The wind is a result of complex interactions of numerous mechanisms taking place in small or large scales, so, the better knowledge of its behavior is essential in a variety of applications, especially in the field of power production coming from wind turbines. In the literature there is a considerable number of models, either physical or statistical ones, dealing with the problem of simulation and prediction of wind speed. Among others, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are widely used for the purpose of wind forecasting and, in the great majority of cases, outperform other conventional statistical models. In this study, a number of ANNs with different architectures, which have been created and applied in a dataset of wind time series, are compared to Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) statistical models. The data consist of mean hourly wind speeds coming from a wind farm on a hilly Greek region and cover a period of one year (2013). The main goal is to evaluate the models ability to simulate successfully the wind speed at a significant point (target). Goodness-of-fit statistics are performed for the comparison of the different methods. In general, the ANN showed the best performance in the estimation of wind speed prevailing over the ARIMA models.

Sensitivity of a numerical wave model on wind re-analysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavidas, George; Venugopal, Vengatesan; Friedrich, Daniel

2017-03-01

Wind is the dominant process for wave generation. Detailed evaluation of metocean conditions strengthens our understanding of issues concerning potential offshore applications. However, the scarcity of buoys and high cost of monitoring systems pose a barrier to properly defining offshore conditions. Through use of numerical wave models, metocean conditions can be hindcasted and forecasted providing reliable characterisations. This study reports the sensitivity of wind inputs on a numerical wave model for the Scottish region. Two re-analysis wind datasets with different spatio-temporal characteristics are used, the ERA-Interim Re-Analysis and the CFSR-NCEP Re-Analysis dataset. Different wind products alter results, affecting the accuracy obtained. The scope of this study is to assess different available wind databases and provide information concerning the most appropriate wind dataset for the specific region, based on temporal, spatial and geographic terms for wave modelling and offshore applications. Both wind input datasets delivered results from the numerical wave model with good correlation. Wave results by the 1-h dataset have higher peaks and lower biases, in expense of a high scatter index. On the other hand, the 6-h dataset has lower scatter but higher biases. The study shows how wind dataset affects the numerical wave modelling performance, and that depending on location and study needs, different wind inputs should be considered.

Comparison of TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level and Linear Model Results forced by Various Wind Products for the Tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The goal of this paper is to compare TOPEX/Posaidon (T/P) sea level with sea level results from linear ocean model experiments forced by several different wind products for the tropical Pacific. During the period of this study (October 1992 - October 1995), available wind products include satellite winds from the ERS-1 scatterometer product of [HALP 97] and the passive microwave analysis of SSMI winds produced using the variational analysis method (VAM) of [ATLA 91]. In addition, atmospheric GCM winds from the NCEP reanalysis [KALN 96], ECMWF analysis [ECMW94], and the Goddard EOS-1 (GEOS-1) reanalysis experiment [SCHU 93] are available for comparison. The observed ship wind analysis of FSU [STRI 92] is also included in this study. The linear model of [CANE 84] is used as a transfer function to test the quality of each of these wind products for the tropical Pacific. The various wind products are judged by comparing the wind-forced model sea level results against the T/P sea level anomalies. Correlation and RMS difference maps show how well each wind product does in reproducing the T/P sea level signal. These results are summarized in a table showing area average correlations and RMS differences. The large-scale low-frequency temporal signal is reproduced by all of the wind products, However, significant differences exist in both amplitude and phase on regional scales. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds do a better job reproducing the T/P signal (i.e. have a higher average correlation and lower RMS difference) than the results forced by atmospheric model winds.

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

Hazardous indoor CO2 concentrations in volcanic environments.

PubMed

Viveiros, Fátima; Gaspar, João L; Ferreira, Teresa; Silva, Catarina

2016-07-01

Carbon dioxide is one of the main soil gases released silently and permanently in diffuse degassing areas, both in volcanic and non-volcanic zones. In the volcanic islands of the Azores (Portugal) several villages are located over diffuse degassing areas. Lethal indoor CO2 concentrations (higher than 10 vol %) were measured in a shelter located at Furnas village, inside the caldera of the quiescent Furnas Volcano (S. Miguel Island). Hazardous CO2 concentrations were detected not only underground, but also at the ground floor level. Multivariate regression analysis was applied to the CO2 and environmental time series recorded between April 2008 and March 2010 at Furnas village. The results show that about 30% of the indoor CO2 variation is explained by environmental variables, namely barometric pressure, soil water content and wind speed. The highest indoor CO2 concentrations were recorded during bad weather conditions, characterized by low barometric pressure together with rainfall periods and high wind speed. In addition to the spike-like changes observed on the CO2 time series, long-term oscillations were also identified and appeared to represent seasonal variations. In fact, indoor CO2 concentrations were higher during winter period when compared to the dry summer months. Considering the permanent emission of CO2 in various volcanic regions of the world, CO2 hazard maps are crucial and need to be accounted by the land-use planners and authorities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CFD Study of the Performance of an Operational Wind Farm and its Impact on the Local Climate: CFD sensitivity to forestry modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wylie, Scott; Watson, Simon

2013-04-01

Any past, current or projected future wind farm developments are highly dependent on localised climatic conditions. For example the mean wind speed, one of the main factors in assessing the economic feasibility of a wind farm, can vary significantly over length scales no greater than the size of a typical wind farm. Any additional heterogeneity at a potential site, such as forestry, can affect the wind resource further not accounting for the additional difficulty of installation. If a wind farm is sited in an environmentally sensitive area then the ability to predict the wind farm performance and possible impacts on the important localised climatic conditions are of increased importance. Siting of wind farms in environmentally sensitive areas is not uncommon, such as areas of peat-land as in this example. Areas of peat-land are important sinks for carbon in the atmosphere but their ability to sequester carbon is highly dependent on the local climatic conditions. An operational wind farm's impact on such an area was investigated using CFD. Validation of the model outputs were carried out using field measurements from three automatic weather stations (AWS) located throughout the site. The study focuses on validation of both wind speed and turbulence measurement, whilst also assessing the models ability to predict wind farm performance. The use of CFD to model the variation in wind speed over heterogeneous terrain, including wind turbines effects, is increasing in popularity. Encouraging results have increased confidence in the ability of CFD performance in complex terrain with features such as steep slopes and forests, which are not well modelled by the widely used linear models such as WAsP and MS-Micro. Using concurrent measurements from three stationary AWS across the wind farm will allow detailed validation of the model predicted flow characteristics, whilst aggregated power output information will allow an assessment of how accurate the model setup can predict wind farm performance. Given the dependence of the local climatic conditions influence on the peat-land's ability to sequester carbon, accurate predictions of the local wind and turbulence features will allow us to quantify any possible wind farm influences. This work was carried out using the commercially available Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) CFD package ANSYS CFX. Utilising the Windmodeller add-on in CFX, a series of simulations were carried out to assess wind flow interactions through and around the wind farm, incorporating features such as terrain, forestry and rotor wake interactions. Particular attention was paid to forestry effects, as the AWS are located close to the vicinity of forestry. Different Leaf Area Densities (LAD) were tested to assess how sensitive the models output was to this change.

Maximum capacity model of grid-connected multi-wind farms considering static security constraints in electrical grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, W.; Qiu, G. Y.; Oodo, S. O.; He, H.

2013-03-01

An increasing interest in wind energy and the advance of related technologies have increased the connection of wind power generation into electrical grids. This paper proposes an optimization model for determining the maximum capacity of wind farms in a power system. In this model, generator power output limits, voltage limits and thermal limits of branches in the grid system were considered in order to limit the steady-state security influence of wind generators on the power system. The optimization model was solved by a nonlinear primal-dual interior-point method. An IEEE-30 bus system with two wind farms was tested through simulation studies, plus an analysis conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results indicated that the model is efficient and reasonable.

MENTAT: A New Magnetic Meridional Neutral Wind Model for Earth's Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandenault, P. B.

2017-12-01

We present a new model of thermosphere winds in the F region obtained from variations in the altitude of the peak density of the ionosphere (hmF2). The new Magnetic mEridional NeuTrAl Thermospheric (MENTAT) wind model produces magnetic-meridional neutral winds as a function of year, day of year, solar local time, solar flux, geographic latitude, and geographic longitude. The winds compare well with Fabry-Pérot Interferometer (FPI) wind observations and are shown to provide accurate specifications in regions outside of the observational database such as the midnight collapse of hmF2 at Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The model winds are shown to exhibit the expected seasonal, diurnal, and hourly behavior based on geophysical conditions. The magnetic meridional winds are similar to those from the well-known HWM14 model but there are important differences. For example, Townsville, Australia has a strong midnight collapse similar to that at Arecibo, but winds from HWM14 do not reproduce it. Also, the winds from hmF2 exhibit a moderate solar cycle dependence under certain conditions, whereas, HWM14 has no solar activity dependence. For more information, please visit http://www.mentatwinds.net/.